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MONTHLY REVIEW of Credit and Business Conditions FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK INDEX FOR THE YEAR 1946 Anglo-American Financial Agreement Background and aims of the Anglo-American financial agreement Discussion of Apparel Stores Page 4 23 55 C h a rt T a b le Percentage change from preceding year in sales and stocks on hand 10 ,20 ,2 8 ,3 5 ,4 7 , 56,64, 7 2 ,82,93 ,106 ,116 Bank Credit Term loans 15 Consumer instalment loans of commercial banks 27, 112 For speculative carrying of securities— request by Federal Reserve Banks to reduce volume of 57 C h a rts New term loans made by selected member banks in 19 cities, 1939-45 Percentage increase in business loans of weekly reporting banks, by districts, May 1945 to March 1946 Loans on Government securities to others than brokers and dealers, 1944-46 Real estate and "other” loans of weekly reporting banks in New York City and 100 other cities, 1945-46 Business loans and inventories, 1939-46 S ee, a lso, Money Market Bank Earnings Earnings and expenses of the Second District member banks Other Second District member banks 15 30 57 66 98 77 78 T a b le Earnings and expenses of the central reserve New York City member banks, 1945-46 Bank Holdings of Unrestricted Treasury Bonds 77 74 C h a rt Treasury bonds outstanding— total, actual and projected un restricted bonds, and commercial bank holdings of unrestricted issues, 1943-54 74 75 3 C ha rts Yields on long term bonds and stocks, 1939-45 Treasury bonds outstanding— total, actual and projected unrestricted bonds, and commercial bank holdings of unrestricted issues, 1943-54 Prices of selected Treasury bonds, 1946 3 Per cent of unrestricted Treasury bonds held by commercial banks by maturity, 1943-46 75 S ee, a lso, Money Market, Securities Bretton Woods Meetings of the Bretton Woods institutions 25 Progress of World Fund and Bank 102 4 23 55 Business Indexes T a b le Indexes of business 9,2 0,28, 3 6 ,47, 5 6 ,6 4 ,7 1 , 8 2 , 9 4 , 106 , 1 1 6 Business Loans and Inventories 98 C ha rt Business loans and inventories, 1939-46 Capital Postwar demand for capital 98 78 T a b le s New capital issues of domestic corporations by industry, 1945 and first half, 1946 T a b le Indexes of hourly and weekly earnings in nonagricultural industries— annual averages, 1938 to 1945, and monthly indexes January to August 1946 104 Check Routing Symbol Progress of the check routing symbol program 59 T a b le s Survey of Second District banks having some checks in circu lation carrying the fractional symbol, December 13, 1945June 14, 1946 Routing symbols used in the Second Federal Reserve District Commodities 60 60 C h a rt Indexes of daily spot market prices of selected basic commodities, June-November 1946 Construction in the Second District 114 62 T a b le Residential building contracts awarded in Second District cities, 1939-46 63 Consumer Credit In 1945 26 Consumer instalment loans of commercial banks 27, 112 Retail credit survey for 1945 43 Credit unions in New York State 80 Since the end of the war 111 C h a rts 26 111 T a b le s Percentage change in consumer instalment credit outstanding of commercial banks in 1944 and 1945 27 Assets and liabilities of credit unions in New York State, 1939-45 81 See, a lso, Prices Corporate Financing New corporate financing 31, 50 Postwar demand for capital 78 C ha rts 74 85 T a b le British Government Anglo-American financial agreements Background and aims of the Anglo-American financial agreement Discussion of Anglo-American agreement Indexes of hourly and weekly earnings in nonagricultural industries, 1938-46 105 Consumer credit by principal types, 1941, ’43, ’45 Consumer credit by major types, 1941, ’45, ’46 T a b le Per cent of unrestricted Treasury bonds held by commercial banks by maturity, 1943-46 Bonds Interest rates Pago New capital issues of domestic corporations by size of company, twelve months ended June 1946 80 S ee, a lso, Corporate Financing Changes in Earnings of Nonagricultural Workers since 1938 103 79 Domestic corporate security issues for refunding and for new capital, quarterly totals 1939 to first quarter 1946 New corporate issues of stocks and bonds, 1939-46 31 51 T a b le s Interest savings on refunding issues, 1945 to first quarter 1946 Ratio of market to issue price of new stock flotations on date of offering New capital issues of domestic corporations by industry, 1945 and first half, 1946 New capital issues by domestic corporations by size of company, twelve months ended June 1946 S ee, a lso, Securities Cotton 32 52 79 80 C ha rt Spot and futures cotton prices, New York City (Thursday closing prices, June-November 1946) 115 Credit Retail credit survey for 1945 43 Bank credit for speculative carrying of securities— request by Federal Reserve Banks to reduce volume of 57 Credit unions in New York State 80 T a b le Assets and liabilities of credit unions in New York State, 1939-45 81 Bank Credit, Consumer Credit, Loans, Money Market Currency Reform In the Netherlands 8 In Eastern Europe 39 In Germany 75 S ee, a lso, INDEX FOR THE YEAR 1946 ( Continued) Page Page C ha rts Note circulation of the Nederlandsche Bank, 1939-45 Demand liabilities of the Nederlandsche Bank, 1945 C harts 8 9 T a b le Selected indexes for Germany and other countries, end of 1945 76 Debt in the United States 32 Changing pattern of Retirement of public debt 49 100 Discussion of C h a rts 32 Gross national product and net indebtedness, 1916-45 Changes in the ownership of the public debt, February-May 1946 50 Department Stores Trade in Second Federal Reserve District, monthly review of 9.2 0.28, 35,46, 56,64, 72,82,93,105, Retail trade 72 116 C harts Indexes of department store sales in selected cities in the Second Federal Reserve District, 1940-46 Estimated dollar volume of sales, stocks, and outstanding orders of Second District department stores, 1940-46 Indexes of department store sales, United States and Second Federal Reserve District, 1939-46 Indexes of department store stocks, United States and Second Federal Reserve District, 1939-46 Indexes of department store sales and stocks, Second Federal Reserve District, 1939-46 36 47 Factory employment and payrolls in the United States and in New York State, 1939-45 Changes in factory employment in selected Second District cities, 1939-45 19 19 T a b le Index of factory employment, United States and New York State 9, 20, 28, 36,47, 56, 64, 71 ,82,94 ,106 ,116 Export Surplus Postwar financing of the United States merchandise 69 T a b le Dollar value of the United States foreign trade Foreign Trade Factory Employment S ee Employment Factory Payrolls S e e Payrolls Federal Trust Funds Financial operations of Finance Financial operations of Federal trust funds Treasury finance in the fiscal year 1947 70 S ee, a lso, 67 67 100 T a b le s 56 64 82 T a b le s Department and apparel store sales and stocks,. Second Federal Reserve District, percentage change from preced ing year 10, 20, 28, 35,47, 56, 64, 72, 82,93,106,116 Indexes of department store sales and stocks, Second Federal Reserve District 10, 20, 28, 35,47, 56, 64, 72,82,93 ,106 ,116 Comparison of stocks and outstanding orders to sales 47 Net sales of independent retail stores by kind of business, United States and Second District localities 72 Department store sales and stocks by type of merchandise, Second Federal Reserve District 94 Estimated receipts of selected types of merchandise at New York City department stores 106 Deposits Survey of ownership of business and personal demand deposits 34,89 Government and private deposits 38 C h a rts Estimated ownership of business and other demand deposits for all commercial banks in the Second Federal Reserve District, 1943-46 35,90 Private and Government demand deposits in weekly report ing member banks in 101 cities, 1944-46 38 Holdings of U. S. Government securities by Federal Government trust funds, 1935, '40, ’45, '46 Types of Government securities held by Federal Government trust funds, June 30, 1946 U. S. Treasury cash income and outgo, fiscal years 1946-47 Financial Agreements Financial agreements with United States Background and aims of the Anglo-American financial agreement Discussion of Anglo-American agreement French-American economic and financial agreements Foreign Trade Postwar financing of the United States merchandise export surplus Postwar foreign trade of the United States 67 69 101 4, 23 23 55 61 69 91 T a b le s Dollar value of United States foreign trade United States postwar foreign trade with continental Europe United States postwar foreign trade with major areas France Nationalization of banking in Devaluation of the French franc Borrowing by French-American economic and financial agreements Freight 70 92 93 16 17 55 61 T a b le Index of ton-miles of railway freight 9 ,2 0 ,2 8 ,3 6 ,4 7 ,5 6 ,6 4 ,7 1 ,8 2 ,9 4 ,1 0 6 ,1 1 6 Index of velocity of demand deposits 9,2 0 ,2 8 ,3 6 ,4 7 , 5 6 ,6 4 ,7Furniture 1 ,8 2 ,9 4 ,1 0Stores 6 ,1 1 6 Wartime changes in furniture store trade 27 Estimated ownership of demand deposits of individuals, T a b le partnerships, and corporations in all commercial banks in Percentage comparison of sales in five principal cities of the the Second Federal Reserve District 34, 90 Second District, 1945 compared with 1944 and 1941 27 Percentage changes in estimated business and personal de Germany mand deposits in all commercial banks in the Second Monetary and financial reform in 75 Federal Reserve District, by size of bank and type of T a b le owner, year ended July 1946 91 Selected indexes for Germany and other countries, end of Devaluation of the French Franc 1945 # 76 S e e France Government Deposits Discount Rate S e e Deposits Elimination of preferential 39 Government Securities Earnings S e e Securities Earnings and expenses of the Second District member banks 77 Income Other Second District member banks 78 T a b le Changes in earnings of nonagricultural workers since 1938 103 Index of income payments in the U. S. T a b le 9 ,2 0,28, 36,47, 56, 64, 71, 82 ,94,10 6,11 6 Earnings and expenses of the central reserve New York City Industrial Production member banks, 1945-46 77 S e e Production S ee , a lso, Workers, Nonagricultural International Lending since the End of Hostilities 54 Eastern Europe T a b le Currency reform in 39 Known post-armistice foreign borrowing of certain European Electric Power countries 55 T a b le International Monetary Fund and Bank Index of electric power output Meetings of the Bretton Woods institutions 25 9.2 0 .2 8 , 3 6 ,4 7,56 ,64,7 1,82,9 4,106 ,116 Progress of the World Fund and Bank 102 Employment International Trade Organization Employment trends in the Second District 18 Employment since the end of the war 71 The proposed 6 T a b le s INDEX FOR THE YEAR 1946 ( Continued) Page Page Interest Rates Long term interest rates and stock yields during the war T a b les 3 C ha rt Yields on long term bonds and stocks, 1939-45 Inventories Business loans and inventories 3 98 C h a rt Business loans and inventories, 1939-46 98 Average interest cost to Treasury of marketable issues sold to nonbank investors in War Loan drives Per cent of unrestricted Treasury bonds held by commercial banks by maturity, 1943-46 Nationalization of Banking in France Netherlands Currency reform in the Note circulation of the Nederlandsche bank, 1939-45 Demand liabilities of the Nederlandsche Bank, 1945 37,49,57 3,85,9 New,65,7 York City7,109 15 Construction in 27, 112 T a b le 54 Earnings and expenses of the central reserve New York City 98 member banks, 1945-46 C h a rts S ee, a lso, Apparel Stores, Department Stores, Employment New term loans made by selected member banks in 19 cities, New York State 1939-45 15 Savings and loan associations in Percentage increase in business loans of weekly reporting Credit unions in banks, by districts, May 1945 to March 1946 30 T a b le Loans on Government securities to others than brokers and Assets and liabilities of credit unions in New York State, dealers, 1944-46 57 1939-45 Real estate and ’‘other” loans of weekly reporting banks in New York Stock Exchange New York City and 100 other cities, 1945-46 66 The stock market and the small investor Business loans and inventories, 1939-46 98 C h a rt 3 C h a rt Yields on long term bonds and stocks, 1939-45 3 Member Banks Monthly review of 1,1 3,21,2 9, 37,49, 57 ,65 ,7 3 ,8 5 ,9 7 ,1 0 9 Member bank reserve position 2,14, 22, 37, 58, 65, 86,110 Member bank investments 14 Member bank earnings 22, 77 Member bank credit 30, 66, 111 Other Second District member banks 78 C h a rts Percentage increase in business loans of weekly reporting member banks by districts, May 1945 to March 1946 Real estate and "other” loans of weekly reporting member banks in New York City and 100 other cities, 1945-46 66 23 77 69 T a b le Dollar value of United States foreign trade Monetary and Financial Reform In the Netherlands In Eastern Europe In Germany 70 8 39 75 C harts Note circulation of the Nederlandsche Bank, 1939-45 Demand liabilities of the Nederlandsche Bank, 1945 8 9 T a b le Selected indexes for Germany and other countries, end of 1945 76 Money Market Monthly review of 1,1 3,21,2 9, 37,49,57 ,65, 73,85,97,109 C h a rts Loans for purchasing or carrying U. S. Government securities by weekly reporting member banks in 101 cities, 1944-45 2 Prices of restricted and unrestricted long term Treasury bonds, July 1945-Jan. 1946 13 Percentage increase in business loans of weekly reporting banks by districts, May 1945 to March 1946 30 Loans on Government securities to others than brokers and dealers, 1944-46 57 Treasury bonds outstanding— total, actual and projected unrestricted bonds and commercial bank holdings of unrestricted issues, 1943-54 74 Prices of selected Treasury bonds, 1946 85 Business loans and inventories, 1939-46 98 Treasury cash expenditures and General Fund balance, 1940-46 109 8 Cumulated odd-lot net purchases or sales of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange, 1942-46 S ee, a lso , Securities, Security Markets during the War Nonagricultural Workers S e e Workers, Nonagricultural Operating Ratios of Member Banks Member bank earnings in 1945 8 9 63 77 52 80 81 99 99 22 T a b le Selected average operating ratios of member banks, Second Federal Reserve District, 1943-45 Payrolls 23 T a b le 30 T a b le s Selected average operating ratios of all member banks, Second Federal Reserve District Earnings and expenses of the central reserve New York City member banks, 1945-46 S ee, a lso, Deposits, Earnings, Money Market Merchandise Export Surplus Postwar financing of the United States 75 16 C harts Loans Member bank, monthly review of 1 ,1 3,21,2 9, Term loans Consumer instalment loans of commercial banks International lending since the end of hostilities Business loans and inventories Long Term Interest Rates and Stock Yields during the War 1 Index of factory payrolls, United States and New York State 9 .2 0 .2 8 , 36,47, 56, 64, 71, 82,94,106,116 Preferential Discount Rate Elimination of 39 Prices Prices since the end of the war 45 Prices since decontrol 114 C h a rts Percentage of commodity quotations up, unchanged, or down from year to year, February 1939-February 1946 46 Standard and Poor’s weekly indexes of industrial, railroad, and public utility stock prices, 1940-46 87 Indexes of daily spot market prices of selected basic com modities, June-November 1946 114 Spot and futures cotton prices, New York City (Thursday closing prices, June-November 1946) 115 T a b le s Index of consumers’ prices 9 .2 0.28, 36,47, 56,64, 71, 82,94,106,116 Percentage changes in stock prices during the war and transition 87 Production Year of peacetime production, a 113 T a b le Index of industrial production 9 ,2 0 ,2 8 ,3 6 ,4 7 ,5 6 , 6 4 ,71,82 ,94,1 06,11 6 Public Debt S e e Money Market, Retirement of Public Debt Railway Freight S e e Freight Reserve Bank Credit S e e Money Market Reserves S ee Member Banks, Money Market Retail Credit Survey for 1945 43 C ha rt Percentage changes, 1944 to 1945, in cash and credit sales by type of store, Second Federal Reserve District 43 T a b le s Percentage change, 1941 to 1945, in sales and accounts receivable by type of retail store, Second Federal Reserve District 44 INDEX FOR THE YEAR 1946 ( Continued) Page Sales, current assets, and current liabilities by size and type of retail store, Second Federal Reserve District, 1944-45 44 Percentage change and distribution of current assets and current liabilities, December 31, 1942-45, retail stores, Second Federal Reserve District 45 Retail Trade 72 Corporate security issues Page 89 C h a rt Standard and Poor’s weekly indexes of industrial, railroad, and public utility stock prices, 1940-46 87 T a b le Percentage changes in stock prices during the war and transition 87 Index of sales of all retail stores S ee , a lso , Securities, Stock Market 9,20,28, 36,47, 56,6 4 ,7 1 ,82 ,94,106,116 Stock Market S ee, a lso, Department Stores, Furniture Stores And the small investor 99 Retirement of Public Debt 49 C h a rt C h a rt Cumulated odd-lot net purchases or sales of stocks on the Changes in the ownership of the public debt, February-May New York Stock Exchange, 1942-46 99 1946 50 Stocks Routing Symbol Long term interest rates and stock yields during the war 3 Progress of the check routing symbol program 59 C h a rt Salaries Yields on long term bonds and stocks, 1939-45 3 S e e Wages S ee, a lso, Securities Savings and Loan Associations in New York State 52 Survey of Ownership of Business and Personal Demand T a b le s Deposits 34, 89 S ee, a lso, Deposits Private repurchasable share capital of savings and loan asso ciations, deposits of mutual savings banks, and time Term Loans 15 deposits of member banks in New York State, 1939-45 53 C h a rt Assets of savings and loan associations in New York State, New term loans made by selected member banks in 19 1939-45 53 cities, 1939-45 15 Second Federal Reserve District Trade Employment trends in the 18 S ee Department Stores, Foreign Trade, Furniture Stores, Inter Member bank earnings in 1945 22 national Trade Organization, Retail Trade Construction in the 62 Treasury Bonds Earnings and expenses of the Second District member banks 77 C ha rts S ee, a lso, Credit, Department Stores, Deposits, Employment, Treasury bonds outstanding— total, actual and projected Furniture Stores, Loans, Member Banks, Money Market unrestricted bonds, and commercial bank holdings of Securities unrestricted issues, 1943-54 74 Long term interest rates and stock yields during the war 3 Prices of selected Treasury bonds, 1946 85 New corporate financing 31,50 T a b le Loans by banks for speculative purchasing or carrying of Gov Per cent of unrestricted Treasury bonds held by commercial ernment securities 57 banks by maturity, 1943-46 75 Financial operations of Federal trust funds 67 S ee, a lso, Money Market, Securities Bank holdings of unrestricted Treasury bonds 74 Treasury Finance in the Fiscal Year 1947 100 Postwar demand for capital 78 T a b le Corporate bond market Corporate security issues 88 89 C harts Loans for purchasing or carrying U. S. Government secur ities by weekly reporting member banks in 101 cities, 1944-45 Yields on long term bonds and stocks, 1939-45 Prices of restricted and unrestricted long term Treasury bonds, July 1945-Jan. 1946 Domestic corporate security issues for refunding and for new capital, quarterly totals 1939 to first quarter 1946 New corporate issues of stocks and bonds, 1939-46 Loans on Government securities to others than brokers and dealers, 1944-46 Treasury bonds outstanding— total, actual and projected unrestricted bonds, and commercial bank holdings of unrestricted issues, 1943-54 Prices of selected Treasury bonds, 1946 Standard and Poor’s weekly indexes of industrial, railroad, and public utility stock prices, 1940-46 Cumulated odd-lot net purchases or sales of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange, 1942-46 U. S. Treasury cash income and outgo, fiscal years 1946-47 Velocity of Demand Deposits 101 T a b le 2 3 13 31 51 57 74 85 87 99 T a b le s Interest savings on refunding issues Ratio of market to issue price of new stock flotations on date of offering Holdings of United States Government securities by Federal Government trust funds, 1935, ’40, ’45, ’46 Types of Government securities held by Federal Govern ment trust funds, June 30, 1946 Percent of unrestricted Treasury bonds held by commercial banks by maturity, 1943-46 New .capital issues of domestic corporations by industry, 1945-46 New capital issues of domestic corporations by size of company, twelve months ended June 1946 Percentage changes in stock prices during the war and transition Security Markets during the War, The Corporate bond market T a b le 32 52 67 69 75 Indexes of 9, 20,28, 36,47, 56, 64, 71, 82 ,94,10 6,11 6 Victory Loan Drive Restriction on War Loan accounts of commercial banks 1 Wages Changes in earnings of nonagricultural workers since 1938 103 C h a rt Indexes of hourly and weekly earnings in nonagricultural industries, 1938-46 105 T a b le s Index of wage rates 9, 20, 28, 36,47, 56, 64, 71, 82, 94,106 Indexes of hourly and weekly earnings in nonagricultural industries— annual averages 1938-45 and monthly indexes January to August 1946 104 Composite index of wages and salaries (supplanting index of "wage rates” ) 116 War Loan Deposits S e e Money Market War Loan Drives Discussion of 1 T a b le Average interest cost to Treasury of marketable issues sold to nonbank investors in War Loan drives Workers, Nonagricultural Changes in earnings of, since 1938 1 103 C h a rt Indexes of hourly and weekly earnings in nonagricultural industries, 1938-46 105 T a b le 79 80 87 87 88 Indexes of hourly and weekly earnings in nonagricultural industries— annual averages 1938-45 and monthly in dexes January to August 1946 World Fund and Bank Meetings of the Bretton Woods institutions Progress of Year of Peacetime Production, A 104 25 102 113
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