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MONTHLY REVIEW of Credit and Business Conditions Second Federal Reserve District Federal Reserve Bank, New York January 1,1939 INDEX FOE THE YEAR 1938 Page Acceptances B ills and com m ercia l paper. M on th ly , pages 3, 10, 19, 26, 35, 42, 50, 59, 66, 75, 83, 90.............................................. .................................... V olu m e o f bills ou tsta n d in g , tabulated b y typ es. M on th ly , pages 3, 10, 19, 26, 35, 42, 50, 59, 67, 75, 83, 91........................................ Automobiles Page Chart. D aily a v e ra g e value o f co n stru ctio n co n tra cts awarded, cla ssified a cco rd in g to ow n ersh ip o f co n stru ctio n , 193 2 -1 93 8 .... 78 Chart. A v e ra g e d aily value o f co n tra cts fo r residential b u ild ing, classified a cco rd in g to ow n ersh ip, 1 9 3 6 -1 93 8 .......................... 86 Chart. M on th ly co n tra ct tota ls f o r tw o p rincipal classes o f n on resid en tial b u ild in g co n stru ctio n , 1 93 3 -1 9 3 8 .............................. 04 Business Profits— Chart. N ew p a ssen ger au tom ob ile reg istra tion s in th e U nited S tates, 1 937-1938 com pared w ith 1 93 6-1937 and 1 935-1936.... 23 Chart. D aily a vera g e p rod u ction o f p a ssen ger a u tom obiles and tru ck s, 1 937-1938 com pared w ith 1 93 6-1937 and 193 5 -1 93 6 .... 38 C hart. A v e ra g e daily p rod u ction o f p a ssen ger cars and tru ck s, and ga solin e con su m p tion , a d ju sted f o r seasonal variation , 1 928-1938 ......................................................................................................... 46 Chart. E stim ated w eek ly p rod u ction o f p a ssen ger cars and tru ck s in th e U nited S tates and Canada, 1938 com pared w ith 1937 ...................... - ............................................................................................ 87 S ee Profits Central Banks C entral bank ra te ch an ges. P a ges 5, 12, 44, 59, 76, 84, 9 2 .............. Chain Stores Chain sto re trade. P a ges 16, 55................................................................ P e rce n ta g e ch an ge fro m p rev iou s yea r in nu m ber o f sto re s, tota l sales, and sales p er store, tabulated b y ty p e o f s to re.................. 66 Balance of Payments E stim a ted balance o f p a ym en ts, tabulated, 1936, 1937.................. 86 Copper Chart. Copper p ro d u ctio n , m o n th ly, 1 9 3 4 -1 93 8 ................................. 70 C otton p rod u ction , m on th ly, 1 9 3 4 -1 9 3 8 ................................. 70 Bills— See Acceptances Cotton Chart. Bonds— See Securities Department Stores Building D epartm ent s to r e trade. M on th ly , pages 8, 15, 24, 32, 40, 48, 56, 64, 72, 80, 88, 96..................................................................................... B u ildin g. M on th ly , p ages 7, 15, 21, 30, 39, 47, 54, 63, 70, 78, 86, 94 ...................................................................... ......................................... P e rce n ta g e ch an ge fro m p rev iou s ye a r in m on th ly n et sales and s to ck s on hand, and co lle ctio n o f a ccou n ts o u tsta n d in g , ta b u lated b y lo ca lity . M on th ly , pages 8, 16, 24, 32, 40, 48, 56, 64, 72, 80, 88, 96................. ............................................................................... T abulated p ercen ta g e ch an ges in a vera ge daily con tra cts, 37 States and N ew Y o rk and N orth ern N ew J ersey, com pared w ith p reviou s year, pages 15, 31, 40, 47, 63, 78, 86, 9 4............. Chart. D aily a vera g e value o f p u b licly and p riva tely financed con stru ction con tra cts aw arded in 37 S tates, 1 93 2 -1 9 3 7 .......... 15 P e rcen tag e ch an ge fro m prev iou s yea r in n et sales and stock s on hand, tabulated b y classification . P a ges 24, 56......................... Chart. D aily a vera g e value o f resid ential bu ild in g con tracts aw arded in 37 S tates, a d ju sted fo r seasonal variation , 19291938. P a ges 22, 55................................................................................................. D epartm ent store sales and s to ck s, S econd F ederal R e se rv e D istrict, season a lly a d ju sted and un ad ju sted , com pared w ith p rev iou s year. P a ges 32, 40, 48, 56, 64, 72, 80, 88, 96......................... Chart. D aily a vera ge value o f resid ential b uild in g con tra cts aw arded in S econd Federal R e serv e D istrict, a d ju sted fo r seasonal variation , 1 9 2 9 -1 93 8 .................................................................. Chart. D ecem b er departm en t sto re sales in th e Second F ederal R e se rv e D istrict, 1 92 9 -1 9 3 7 .......................................... .......................... 8 40 Chart. V alu e o f con tra cts awarded f o r residential and f o r c o m m ercia l and in d ustrial b uild in g in 37 S tates, 1 92 9 -1 9 3 8 ............. 63 Chart. Sales and s to ck s o f re p o rtin g departm en t stores in Second F ederal R e se rv e D istrict, a d ju sted fo r seasonal va ria tion , 1 92 7-1937 ...................... - ................................................................... 16 INDEX FOR THE YEAR 1938 (Continued) Page 48 Chart. S tock s o f rep ortin g d epartm en t stores in S econd F ederal R eserv e D istrict, and in th e U nited S tates, a d ju ste d fo r seasonal variation , 1 9 2 7 -1 9 3 8 .................................................................. 56 41 M on th ly electric p ow er p rod u ction , 1 93 4 -1 9 3 8 .................. Chart. A v e ra g e daily railw ay loadin gs o f m erch an dise and m iscellaneous fre ig h t, a d ju sted f o r seasonal variation , 19331938 .................................................................................................... .............. 54 Gold Gold m ovem ent. M on th ly , p a ges 4, 12, 21, 28, 37, 44, 52, 61, 68, 76, 85, 92......................................................................................................... Electric Power Chart. 88 Freight Deposits Chart. A d ju s ted dem and d ep osits in rep ortin g m em ber banks in N ew Y ork C ity and in 100 other cities, 1 9 3 5 -1 9 3 8 ......................... Page Chart. U nited States exp orts and im p orts o f m erch an dise, 1 935-1938 ......................................................................................................... Chart. D ollar volu m e o f departm en t store sales in Second F e d eral R e serv e D is tr ic t du rin g first fiv e m on th s o f p a st ten years, 1929-1938 ........................................................................................ ......... ....... 70 S terilization and desterilization . P a ges 17, 18, 3 3 .............................. Statem en t b y S ecreta ry o f T rea su ry , F eb ru a ry 14, w ith resp ect to acq u isition s or releases o f g o ld b y T rea su ry D ep a rtm en t...... 17 E m p loym en t and p a yrolls. M on th ly , pages 6, 13, 21, 31, 37, 45, 55, 62, 72, 79, 85, 95............................................................................................. Chart. Changes in th e m on etary g o ld sto ck o f th e U nited States, in m em ber bank re se rv e s, and in T rea su ry cash, sin ce J an u ary, 1934 ......................................................................................................... 17 Chart. Index nu m bers o f m a n u fa ctu rin g outp ut and em p loyee hours w orked in fa cto rie s, a d ju sted f o r seasonal variation , 1929-1937 ......................................................................................................... Chart. P rincip al fa cto rs ca u sin g g o ld inflow into th e U nited States (cu m u la tiv e sin ce Jan uary 1, 1 9 3 5 )...................................... 65 Chart. A p p roxim ate dollar value o f g o ld sold at fixin g tim e in L on d on m arket, 1 9 3 4 -1 9 3 8 ...... ................................................................. 67 Chart. M on th ly ch an ges in U nited States g o ld s to ck , 1 934-1938 73 Chart. C hanges in U nited States g o ld s to ck and m em ber bank re se rv e balances sin ce Jan uary, 1934.................................................. 89 Employment Chart. N u m b er o f fa c t o r y w orkers em p loyed , a vera g e hours w orked, and a g g re g a te n u m ber o f hours w orked, 1 92 9 -1 93 8 .... 6 21 Chart. Index o f pa yrolls and em p loy ee hou rs, a d ju sted f o r seasonal variation , and a vera g e h ou rly earnings in U nited States fa cto rie s, 1 93 3 -1 9 3 8 ....................................................................... 45 Chart. Index o f fa c t o r y em p loym en t in N ew Y ork State, a d ju sted fo r seasonal variation , 1 92 4 -1 9 3 8 ....................... ......... . 65 Chart. Index o f em p loy ee hours w orked in U nited States f a c tories, a d ju sted fo r seasonal variation , 1 93 3 -1 93 8 ....................... 79 Chart. Seasonally a d ju sted indexes o f tota l fa c t o r y em p loym en t in th e U nited S tates, and o f em p loy m en t in durable and n o n durable grou p s o f ind u stries, 1 9 2 9 -1 9 3 8 ............................................ Government Securities— See Securities Industrial Loans 85 Exports and Imports— See Foreign Trade In d ustrial loans .................................................................................................. 59 N um ber o f inquiries and applications fo r loans sin ce enactm ent o f legisla tion , tabulated b y q u a rters.................................................... 59 D isp osition o f applications f o r loans, tab u la ted ................................... 60 Foreign Exchange F oreign exch a n g es. M on th ly , p ages 4, 12, 20, 28, 36, 43, 52, 61, 67, 76, 84, 91........................................................................................................... Chart. S terlin g exch a n g e q u otations in N ew Y ork m arket, 1937-1938 ......................................................................................................... 61 Chart. A p p roxim ate dollar value o f g old sold a t fixin g tim e in London m arket, 1 9 3 4 -1 9 3 8 ....................................................................... 67 Chart. C losing daily q u otations fo r s terlin g exch a n g e a t N ew Y ork, Jan u a ry -S ep tem b er, 1938.............................................................. 77 Chart. D aily ra n g e o f h igh and low qu otation s f o r sterlin g exch a n g e a t N ew Y o r k , S ep tem b er-O ctob er, 1938......................... 84 Chart. M on th ly ra n ge o f high and low q u otations fo r sterlin g exch a n g e a t N ew Y ork , 1 9 3 1 -1 9 3 8 ........................................................ 91 E ffe ct o f in crease in excess reserv es on m on ey ra tes...... ................... 34 Loans and Investments— See Member Banks Chart. D o m e stic and fo r e ig n m achine to o l ord ers, 193 1 -1 93 7 .... 13 Chart. Index num bers o f m a n u fa ctu rin g output and em ployee hours w orked in fa cto rie s, a d ju sted fo r seasonal variation , 1929-1937 ......................................................................................................... 6 24 D ollar value o f exp orts and im p orts o f m a jor grou p s o f co m m odities tabulated and p ercen ta g e ch an ge from p rev iou s year. Pages 31, 53, 95...................................................................................................... C entral ban k ra te ch an ges. P a ges 5, 12, 44, 59, 76, 84, 92..................... Manufacturing F oreig n trade. M on th ly , p ages 7, 14, 23, 31, 39, 47, 52, 64, 71, 80, 88. 95...................................................................... 1............................................. Dollar value o f exp orts and im p orts o f m a jor a gricu ltu ra l and n on agricu ltu ra l grou p s, A p ril, 1937 and A p ril, 1938, tabulated M on ey rates in N ew Y o rk , tabulated. M on th ly , pages 2, 10, 18, 26, 34, 42, 50, 58, 66, 74, 82, 90....................................................................... Machine Tools Foreign Trade P rincipal exp orts and im p orts tabulated fo r 1937 w ith p ercen ta g e ch an ges fro m 1936........................................................................................ Interest Rates 47 Member Banks M em ber bank credit. P a ges 2, 18, 25, 34, 58, 66, 74, 82, 90..................... D istrib u tion o f excess reserv es a m on g variou s grou p s o f m em ber banks, tabulated ........................................................................................... 2 INDEX FOR THE YEAR 1938 (Continued) Page R eserv e p osition o f “ c o u n try ” m em ber ban ks, tab u la ted................ B eh a vior o f com m ercial loans influenced b y sale o f new s e cu rity issu es b y corp ora tion s................................................................................. Chart. Changes in th e m on etary gold stock o f th e U nited S tates, in m em ber bank reserv es, and in T rea su ry cash sin ce 1934...... 2 82 17 Chart. E xcess reserv es o f N ew Y o rk Central R eserv e C ity m e m ber banks and o f all m em ber banks in the U nited S tates, 19341938. P a ges 25, 57, 81.......................................... ............................................... Chart. A d ju s te d dem and d ep osits in rep ortin g m em b er banks in N ew Y ork C ity and in 100 oth er cities, 1 93 5 -1 9 3 8 ...... ................... 41 Chart. Loans and in v estm en ts o f w eek ly rep ortin g m em ber banks in N ew Y o r k C ity, 1 9 3 4 -1 93 8 ...................................................... 49 Chart. Changes in U nited States g old s tock and m em ber bank reserv e balances sin ce January, 1934.................................................... 89 Chart. T e x tile m ill a ctiv ity , 1 9 3 3 -1 9 3 8 .................................................. 30 C hart. D aily a vera g e p ro d u ctio n o f p a ssen ger autom ob iles and tru ck s, 193 7 -1 93 8 com p ared w ith 193 6 -1 93 7 and 1 93 5 -1 9 3 6 ...... 38 Chart. A v e ra g e daily p ro d u ctio n o f p a sse n ge r cars and tru ck s, and ga solin e con su m p tion , a d ju ste d f o r seasonal variation , 1 92 8-1938 ......................................................................................................... 46 Chart. A v e ra g e daily railw ay loadin gs o f m erch an dise and m is cellaneous fre ig h t, a d ju sted f o r seasonal variation , 193 3 -1 93 8 54 Chart. S teel m ill a ctiv ity , 1 93 3 -1 9 3 8 ...................................................... 62 Chart. A c t iv ity in fo u r im p orta n t p rod u ction lines— steel, c o t ton, e le ctric pow er, cop p er, a d ju sted f o r seasonal variation , 1934-1938 ......................................................................................................... 70 Chart. E stim ated w eek ly p rod u ction o f p a ssen ger cars and tru ck s in th e U nited States and Canada, 1938 com pared w ith 1937 .................................................................................................................... 87 Money Chart. V olu m e o f m on ey in circu lation , a d ju sted f o r usual sea sonal ch an ges, 1 93 5 -1 9 3 7 ......................................................................... Profits 1 B usin ess p rofits. P a ges 29, 44, 69, 93................................... ................ T abulated p rofits b y corp oration grou p s. P a ges 29, 45, 69, 9 3 ...... Money Market M on ey m arket. M on th ly , pages 1, 9, 17, 25, 33, 41, 49, 57, 65, 73, 81, 89...... .............................................................................................................. M on ey rates in N ew Y o rk , tabulated. M on th ly , p a ges 2, 10, 18, 26, 34, 42, 50, 58, 66, 74, 82, 90....................................................................... New Composite Wage Index....................................................... Chart. A nnual net p rofits o r deficits o f 700 industrial and m e r cantile co n ce rn s, class I railroads, and 71 pu blic u tility co m panies oth er than teleph one com panies durin g 1929, 1932, 1936, and 1937....................... ....................... ............................................... 29 Chart. Index o f p rofits o f 167 industrial and m ercantile co r p o ration s, a d ju sted f o r seasonal variation , 1 928-1938. P a ges 45, 69, 93 ........... ................................................................................................................ 12 Reserves Payrolls D istrib u tion o f e xcess re se rv e s o f m em ber ban ks, tab u la ted......... E m p loy m en t and p a yrolls. M on th ly , p ages 6, 13, 21, 31, 37, 45, 55, 62, 72, 79, 85, 95..............................................7............................................. Chart. In d ex o f pa yrolls and em p loy ee h ou rs, a d ju sted fo r sea sonal variation , and a vera g e h ou rly earnings in U nited States fa cto rie s, 1933-1938 ........................................................... ........................ 45 Prices C om m od ity prices. M on th ly, pages 7, 14, 22, 32, 38, 47, 53, 63, 71, 79, 86, 96 ..................................... ..................................................................... S pot qu otation s o f a n u m ber o f a ctiv e ly traded com m od ities, h igh s and low s, 1936, 1937, and 1938, tabulated ............................ 22 Chart. W h olesa le p rices o f raw m aterials and finished p rod u cts, 1 929-1938. P ages 14, 39..................................................................................... Chart. M ov em en t o f prices o f a ctiv e ly traded com m od ities, 1 933-1938 ...... .................................................................................................. 63 Production and Trade P rod u ction and trade. M on th ly , pages 5, 13, 23, 30, 38, 46, 54, 62, 70, 77, 87, 94.......................................................................................... 2 R e serv e p osition o f “ co u n try ” m em ber ban ks, tab u la ted .................. 2 E x ce ss reserv es and m on ey ra te s.............................. ................................. 18 R ed u ction in the p ercen ta g es o f req u ired re se rv e s, e ffe ctiv e A pril 16 .............................................................................................................. 33 E ffe ct o f in crease o f m em ber bank excess reserv es on m on ey rates 84 Changes in su p p ly o f and d isp osition o f re se rv e fu n ds betw een D ecem ber 11, 1935 and J u ly 13, 1938, tab u la ted .............................. 57 Chart. Changes in excess reserv es o f N ew Y o rk C ity banks com pared with ch an ges in the volu m e o f fu n ds o f o th er d o m e s tic banks on d ep osit in N ew Y o rk C ity ban ks, 1 93 4 -1 93 8 ........... 9 Chart. C hanges in th e m on etary g o ld s to ck o f th e U nited S tates, in m em ber bank re se rv e s, and in T rea su ry cash sin ce J an u a ry, 1934 ......................................................................................................... 17 C hart. E x ce ss reserv es o f N ew Y o r k C entral R e se rv e C ity m em ber banks and o f all m em ber banks in th e U nited States, 1 934-1938. P ages 25, 57, 81.............................................................................. Chart. R eserv e balances o f all m em ber ban ks, sh ow in g am ou nt o f required and e xcess re se rv e s, 1 9 3 4 -1 9 3 8 ........................................ 33 Chart. Changes in "United States g o ld s to ck and m em ber bank re se rv e balances sin ce Jan uary, 1934.................................................... 89 T abulated indexes o f p rod u ction in principal in d u stries. M on th ly, p ages 6, 13, 23, 30, 38, 46, 54, 62, 71, 78, 87, 95 ............................ P rod u ction and trade in 1937....................................................................... 5 Chart. In d ex o f gen eral p rod u ction and trade in the U nited S tates, 1 9 1 9 -1 9 3 7 ...... ................................................................................... 5 Chart. Index nu m bers o f m an u fa ctu rin g ou tp u t and em p loyee hou rs w orked in fa cto rie s, a d ju sted fo r seasonal variation , 1 92 9 -1 93 7 .......................................... ........................................ ..................... Securities G overn m en t secu rities. M on th ly , p ages 2, 10, 18, 26, 34, 42, 50, 58, 66, 74, 82, 90.............................. ................ ..................................................S ecu rity m arkets. M on th ly , p a ges 3, 10, 19, 27, 35, 42, 51, 60, 68, 75, 83, 92.................................................................. ............................... 6 .... D om estic and fo re ig n m ach in e to o l ord ers, 1 93 1 -1 9 3 7 ...... 13 N ew financing. M on th ly , pages 4, 11, 20, 27, 36, 43, 51, 60, 68, 76, 84, 92.............................. ...................................................................................... Chart. N ew p a ssen ger a u tom obile reg istra tion s in th e U nited S tates, 1937-1938 com pared w ith 1 93 6-1937 and 1 93 5 -1 9 3 6 ...... 23 D ecline and re c o v e ry in p rices o f certain fo re ig n bonds at tim e o f Septem ber E uropean crisis, tabulated ............................................. Chart. 76 INDEX FOR THE YEAR 1938 (Continued) Page Page C hart. M on th ly a vera g e volu m e o f d om estic corp ora te secu rity issu es fo r refu n d in g and f o r new capital, exclu d in g in v estm en t t ru s t issu es, 1 92 5 -1 93 7 ................................... ............................. ............ Treasury Financing— See Money Market 11 Chart. M ovem en ts o f s tock and bond p rices. P a ges 11, 27, 35, 75, 83 ................................................................................................... _ ...................... C hanges in p o lic y w ith re sp e ct to gold . P ages 17, 83. Chart. Y ield s on U nited States G overnm ent bonds due or ca ll able a fte r 8 years, and on high grad e corp oration bond s, 1 934-1938 ......................................................................................................... 19 Chart. A v e ra g e yields on T rea su ry bonds o f m ore than 8 y e a rs’ term to call date o r m atu rity and on T rea su ry notes o f 3 to 5 yea r m atu rity , 1 9 3 4 -1 9 3 8 ....................................................................... 35 Chart. A v e ra g e yields on U nited States T rea su ry , and on A aa and B aa corp ora tion b on d s, 1 9 3 2 -1 9 3 8 .........._ .................................... 43 Chart. A v e ra g e m on th ly volu m e o f d om estic corporate secu rity issues f o r new cap ital and fo r refu n d in g, b y quarters, 19361938. P a ges 51, 76.................................................................................................. Chart. United States Treasury M ov em en t o f s to ck p rices, 1 9 3 5 -1 9 3 8 ..................................... 60 Chart. A v e ra g e yields on T rea su ry bonds and T rea su ry notes, 1 936-1938 ......................................................................................................... 74 Wages N ew co m p o site w a g e in d ex............................................................................ 12 Chart. C om p osite index o f w a ges (F ed era l R ese rv e Bank o f N ew Y o rk in d e x ), 1 9 1 9 -1 9 3 7 .............................................................................. 12 Chart. Indexes o f pa yrolls and em p loyee hou rs, a d ju sted fo r seasonal variation , and a v e ra g e h ou rly earnings in U nited States fa cto rie s, 1 93 3 -1 9 3 8 ............ .......................................................... 45 Wheat Chart. A nnu al h a rv est o f w in ter and sp rin g w heat, 1 92 9 -1 93 7 , and D epartm ent o f A g ricu ltu re estim ate o f 1938 wheat p ro d u c tion ...................................................................................................................... Steel Chart. Steel m ill a ctiv ity , 1 9 3 3 -1 9 3 8 ...................................................... 62 Chart. S teel p rod u ction , m on th ly, 1 93 4 -1 9 3 8 ..................................... 70 W holesa le trade. P ages 8, 16.. Treasury Cash Chart. C hanges in th e m on eta ry g old s to ck o f th e U nited S tates, in m em ber bank reserv es, and in T rea su ry cash sin ce January, 1934 « . . . ........ Wholesale Trade 17 P e rce n ta g e ch an ge fro m p rev iou s yea r in m on th ly net sales and s to ck s on hand, and co lle ctio n o f a cco u n ts o u tsta n d in g , ta b u lated b y p rincip al lines. P a ges 8, 16.................................................... 53
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