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Vol. 5, No. 14 DECEMBER 2010 EconomicLetter Insights from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dall as The Fallacy of a Pain-Free Path to a Healthy Housing Market by Danielle DiMartino Booth and David Luttrell Usually a driver of economic recoveries, the housing market is foundering as an engine of growth. I n the mid-1990s, the public policy goal of increasing the U.S. homeownership rate collided with a huge leap in financial innovation. Lenders shifted from originating and holding mortgages to originating and packaging them for sale to investors. These new financial products enabled millions of Americans who hadn’t previously qualified to buy a home to become owners. Housing construction boomed, reaching a postwar high—9.1 million homes were built between 2002 and 2006, a period when 5.6 million U.S. households were formed. The resulting oversupply of homes presents policymakers with a formidable challenge as they struggle to craft a sustainable economic recovery. Usually a driver of economic recoveries, the housing market is foundering as an engine of growth. Generations of policymakers since the 1930s have sought to increase the homeownership rate. By the late 1960s, it had reached 64.3 percent of households, remaining there through the mid-1990s, in apparent equilibrium with household formation during a period of sustained U.S. economic growth. A fresh push to increase ownership drove the rate up 5 percentage points to its peak in the mid-2000s. Home price gains followed the rate upward. Reverting to the Mean Price As gauged by an aggregate of housing indexes dating to 1890, real home prices rose 85 percent to their highest level in August 2006. They have since declined 33 percent, falling short of most predictions for a cumulative correction of at least 40 percent.1 In fact, home prices still must fall 23 percent if they are to revert to their long-term mean (Chart 1). The Federal Reserve’s purchases of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac government-sponsored-entity bonds, which eased mortgage rates, supported home prices. Other measures included mortgage modification plans, which deferred foreclosures, and tax credits, which boosted entry-level home sales. Measuring the success of these efforts is important to determining the trajectory of the economic recovery and providing policymakers with a blueprint for future action. New-home sales data, though extremely volatile, are considered a leading indicator for the overall housing market. Since expiration of the home-purchase tax credit in April, sales have fallen 40 percent to an average seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of 283,000 units. This contrasts with the three years through mid-2006 when monthly sales averaged 1.2 million on an annual basis. Before the housing boom and bust, singlefamily home sales ran at half that pace. Because current sales are at one-fifth of the 2005 peak, new-home inventories—now at a 42-year low—still represent an 8.6-month supply. An inventory of five to six months suggests a balanced market; home prices tend to decline until that level is achieved. One factor inhibiting the newhome market is a growing supply of existing units. The 3.9 million homes listed in October represent a 10.5-month supply. One in five mortgage holders owes more than the home is worth, an impediment that could hinder refinancings in the next year, when a fresh wave of adjustable-rate mortgages is due to reset. The number of listed homes, in other words, is at risk of growing further. This so-called shadow inventory incorporates mortgages at high risk of default; adding these to the total implies at least a two-year supply.2 The mortgage-servicing industry has struggled with understaffing and burgeoning case volumes. The average number of days past due for loans in the foreclosure process equates to almost 16 months, up 64 percent from the peak of the housing boom. One in six delinquent homeowners who haven’t made a payment in two years is still not in foreclosure.3 Mounting bottlenecks suggest the shadow inventory will grow in the near term. Notably, not all homeowners in arrears suffer financial hardship due to Chart 1 U.S. Real Home Prices Returning to Long-Term Mean? Index, 1890 = 100 210 190 +85% –33% 170 150 +1 standard deviation 130 –23% 110 90 –1 standard deviation 70 50 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Q2:2010 SOURCES: Irrational Exuberance, 2nd ed., by Robert J. Shiller, Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press 2005 and 2009, as updated; authors’ calculations. EconomicLetter 2 Federal Reserve Bank of Dall as unaffordable house payments. Those with significant negative equity in their homes may choose to default even though they can afford to make the payments. Such “strategic default” is inherently difficult to measure; one study found 36 percent of mortgage defaults are strategic.4 Though the effect is not readily quantifiable, the growing lag between delinquency and foreclosure provides an added inducement for this form of default. Mortgage Modification Limits One set of policies to aid homeowners in dire straits involves mortgage modifications, though these efforts have only minimally reduced housing supplies. The most farreaching effort has been the Making Home Affordable Program (previously the Home Affordable Modification Program, or HAMP), in effect since March 2009. After only one year, cancellations—loans dropped from the program before a permanent change was completed—eclipsed new modifications (Chart 2). Since March, the number of cancellations has continued to exceed new trial modifications, which involve eligibility and documentation review, and successful permanent modifications. The fact that many mortgage holders have negative equity in their homes stymies modification efforts. In the case of HAMP, the cost of carrying a house must be reduced to 31 percent of the owner’s pretax income. Even if permanent modification is achieved, adding other debt payments to arrive at a total debt-to-income ratio boosts the average participant’s debt burden to 63.4 percent of income. In many cases, the financial innovations of the credit boom era, enabling owners to monetize home equity, encouraged high aggregate debt. A study found that in a best-case outcome, 20 to 25 percent of modifications will become permanent.5 In 2008, one in three homeowners devoted at least a third of household income to housing; one in eight was burdened with housing costs of 50 percent or more.6 Failed modifications suggest that, without strong income growth, the bounds of affordability can be stretched only so far. Without intervention, modest home price declines could be allowed to resume until inventories clear. An analysis found that home prices increased by about 5 percentage points as a result of the combined efforts to arrest price deterioration.7 Absent incentive programs and as modifications reach a saturation point, these price increases will likely be reversed in the coming years. Prices, in fact, have begun to slide again in recent weeks. In short, pulling demand forward has not produced a sustainable stabilization in home prices, which cannot escape the pressure exerted by oversupply (Chart 3). Lingering Housing Market Issues About 3.6 million housing units, representing 2.7 percent of the total housing stock, are vacant and being held off the market. These are not occasional-use homes visited by people whose usual residence is elsewhere but units that are vacant yearround. Presumably, many are among the 6 million distressed properties that are listed as at least 60 days delinquent, in foreclosure or foreclosed in banks’ inventories. Recent revelations of inadequately documented foreclosures and the resulting calls for a moratorium on foreclosures—what was quickly coined “Foreclosuregate”—threaten to further delay housing market clearing. While home price declines may be arrested as foreclosure paperwork issues are resolved, the buildup of distressed supply will only grow over time. Perhaps less obviously, some lenders with the means to underwrite new mortgages will remain skeptical about the underlying value of the collateral. With nearly half of total bank assets backed by real estate, both homeowners on the cusp of negative equity and the banking system as Chart 2 HAMP Modifications Ramping Down Monthly modifications started (thousands) 180 158 160 155 Trial 140 Permanent 120 Canceled 100 80 60 40 20 0 May ’09 July ’09 Sept. ’09 Nov. ’09 Jan. ’10 Mar. ’10 May ’10 July ’10 Sept. ’10 SOURCE: Treasury Department, Making Home Affordable Program Servicer Performance Report through October 2010. Chart 3 Payback Effects Follow Tax Credit Expiration Diffusion index, +50 = increasing 70 Tax credit expiration Time on market Number of offers Sales price 65 Closed transactions 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 July ’09 Sept. ’09 Nov. ’09 Jan. ’10 Mar. ’10 May ’10 July ’10 Sept. ’10 Nov. ’10 SOURCE: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance, Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions, November 2010. a whole remain concerned amid the resumption of home price declines.8 This unease highlights the housing market’s fragility and suggests there may be no pain-free path to the eventual righting of the market. No perfect Federal Reserve Bank of Dall as solution to the housing crisis exists. The latest price declines will undoubtedly cause more economic dislocation. As the crisis enters its fifth year, uncertainty is as prevalent as ever and continues to hinder a more robust 3 EconomicLetter EconomicLetter economic recovery. Given that time has not proven beneficial in rendering pricing clarity, allowing the market to clear may be the path of least distress. 15145, National Bureau of Economic Research, July 2009). The number of strategic defaulters as a percentage of total defaulters rose to 35.6 percent in March 2010 from 23.6 percent in March 2009. DiMartino Booth is a financial analyst and Luttrell is a research analyst in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Notes 1 See Irrational Exuberance, 2nd ed., by Robert 5 See “Foreclosure Pipeline to Govern Home Price Inflation: A Dialogue with Mortgage Servicers and Policy Officials,” Zelman & Associates, May 18, 2010. 6 See “The State of the Nation’s Housing 2010,” Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard Univer- J. Shiller, Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University sity, June 2010. Press, 2005 and 2009, as updated by author 7 (www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm). of 2007–2009: Lessons for the Future,” by John 2 Authors’ calculations using the Census Bureau’s is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System. Articles may be reprinted on the condition that the source is credited and a copy is provided to the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Economic Letter is available free of charge by writing the Public Affairs Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, P.O. Box 655906, Dallas, TX 75265-5906; by fax at 214-922-5268; or by telephone at 214-922-5254. This publication is available on the Dallas Fed website, www.dallasfed.org. See “Housing Markets and the Financial Crisis V. Duca, John Muellbauer and Anthony Murphy, new-home sales report, the National Associa- Journal of Financial Stability, vol. 6, no. 4, 2010, tion of Realtors’ existing-home sales release and pp. 203–17. Capital Economics’ July 13, 2010, U.S. Housing 8 Market Monthly report. loans, and real estate-backed assets account for Real estate secures 58 percent of all U.S. bank 3 Data from LPS Applied Analytics. 46 percent of total bank assets. See “U.S. Hous- 4 See “The Determinants of Attitudes Towards ing: How Bad For Banks?” BCA Research Daily Strategic Default on Mortgages,” by Luigi Guiso, Insights, Sept. 27, 2010. CoreLogic reports that a Paola Sapienza and Luigi Zingales, Economics 5 percent decline in home prices would result in Working Papers no. ECO2010/31, European Uni- an additional 2.5 million underwater borrowers. versity Institute, July 2010 (previously circulated See “Housing: Stuck and Staying Stuck,” by Nick as “Moral and Social Constraints to Strategic Timiraos and Sara Murray, wsj.com, Sept. 24, Default on Mortgages,” NBER Working Paper no. 2010. Richard W. Fisher President and Chief Executive Officer Helen E. Holcomb First Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Harvey Rosenblum Executive Vice President and Director of Research Robert D. Hankins Executive Vice President, Banking Supervision Director of Research Publications Mine Yücel Executive Editor Jim Dolmas Editor Michael Weiss Associate Editor Kathy Thacker Graphic Designer Ellah Piña Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2200 N. Pearl St. Dallas, TX 75201
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