Full text of Economic Indicators : September 1982
The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
97th Congress, 2d Session Economic Indicators SEPTEMBER 1982 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1982 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) HENRY S. REUSS, Wisconsin, Chairman ROGER W. JEPSEN, Iowa, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES RICHARD BOILING (Missouri) LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana) GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana) PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland) AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California) CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio) MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts) JOHN H. ROUSSELOT (California) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) SENATE WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) JAMES ABDNOR (South Dakota) STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho) PAULA HAWKINS (Florida) MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia) LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas) WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland) JAMES K. GALBRAITH, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS MARTIN S. FELDSTEIN, Chairman-Designate WILLIAM A. NISKANEN [PUBLIC LAW 120—81ST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.75 a single copy ($3.45 foreign), or by subscription at $21.00 per year ($26.25 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 u TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to revised estimates for the second quarter of 1982, gross national product rose $49.7 billion or 6.8 percent, both at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 2.1 percent, annual rate, and the implicit price deflator rose at a 4.6 percent annual rate. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 3,200 3,200 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 3,000 3,000 2,800 2,800 2,600 2,600 GNP . IN CURRENT DOLLARS. 2,400 2,400 2,200 2,200 2,000 2,000 1,800 1,800 1,600 1,600 -\- 1,400 GNP IN 1972 DOLLARS 1,200 1,200 I 1975 1974 1976 i I 1977 I i 1978 I i 1979 I 1980 I I 1981 I I I 1982 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Total 812.0 888.1 976.4 1,084.3 1,204.4 1,346.5 1,507.2 1,667.2 1,843.2 96.2 101.7 102.0 111.0 122.7 129.2 143.4 153.6 168.3 197.2 228.9 2,643.7 2,739.4 1,682.0 1,745.8 384.1 410.3 39.0 23.5 337.2 346.7 298.2 323.2 538.5 559.8 2,864.9 2,901.8 2,980.9 3,003.2 1,799.9 1,819.4 1,868.8 1,884.5 455.7 475.5 486.0 468.9 31.2 23.7 25.9 23.5 365.4 368.9 367.2 367.9 334.2 345.1 341.3 344.4 2,995.5 3,045.2 1,919.4 1,947.8 414.8 431.5 31.3 34.9 359.9 365.8 328.6 330.9 1981: I Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Total 234.9 253.1 270.4 304.1 339.9 362.1 393.8 431.9 474.4 538.4 596.9 1980: HI IV n Imports 76.7 95.4 132.8 128.1 157.1 186.7 219.8 268.1 314.0 341.3 1,326.4 1,434.2 1,549.2 1,718.0 1,918.3 2,163.9 2,417.8 2,633.1 2,937.7 1982: I Exports 68.8 77.5 109.6 146.2 154.9 170.9 182.7 218.7 281.4 339.2 367.3 672.2 737.1 Final Federal Net exports .7 14.2 13.4 26.8 13.8 -4.0 -1.1 13.2 25.2 26.1 1,077.6 1,185.9 IV Goveriiment purchjises of goc ds and services Exports aiid imports of goods and services , 166.4 195.0 229.8 228.7 206.1 257.9 324.1 386.6 423.0 402.3 471.5 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 n ra Gross private domestic investment 4.1 64.7 National defense Nondefense State and local 72.8 77.0 83.0 86.0 92.8 100.3 111.8 131.4 153.7 26.0 28.5 29.1 138.7 151.4 168.5 33.9 39.7 43.2 50.6 53.3 56.5 65.8 75.2 193.1 217.2 232.9 250.4 278.3 306.0 341.2 368.0 1,070.0 1,175.7 1,307.9 1,420.1 1,556.1 1,706.2 1,895.3 2,137.4 2,403.5 2,643.1 2,917.3 193.3 207.0 130.5 138.1 62.8 68.9 345.2 352.8 2,664.8 2,757.1 578.1 583.2 600.2 626.3 217.0 218.2 230.0 250.5 143.1 150.5 154.4 166.9 73.9 67.7 75.7 83.6 361.1 365.0 370.1 375.7 2,852.7 2,877.2 2,949.1 2,989.9 630.1 630.9 249.7 244.3 166.2 176.2 83.5 68.2 380.4 386.6 3,031.1 3,061.4 70.2 73.1 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS [Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross national product Period Personal consumption expenditures (3ross private dom estic investnlent 1.6 .7 15.5 27.8 32.2 25.4 22.0 24.0 37.2 50.6 42.0 77.5 97.3 108.5 103.5 110.1 112.9 126.7 146.2 159.2 158.5 81.8 80.7 71.4 84.7 90.9 102.7 109.0 108.6 116.4 -8.5 -6.2 53.1 45.6 155.9 155.1 48.2 44.2 39.2 36.5 36.9 35.7 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 119.3 125.6 140.3 158.3 169.9 166.1 172.0 53.7 63.8 62.3 48.2 42.2 51.2 60.7 62.4 59.1 47.2 44.9 1980: HI IV 1,463.8 1,479.4 928.0 941.0 163.8 166.4 44.0 49.5 1981: I 1,507.8 1,502.2 1,510.4 1,490.1 951.1 944.6 951.4 943.4 169.7 170.1 173.9 174.2 49.6 47.3 42.9 39.9 1,470.7 1,478.4 949.1 955.0 172.0 166.7 38.9 40.1 1982: I n T?in«l 8.1 10.2 17.2 11.6 -6.7 7.8 13.3 16.0 7.3 -5.0 9.0 112.2 121.0 138.1 135.7 IV Oh unange in business inventories Residential fixed 696.8 737.1 767.9 762.8 779.4 823.1 864.3 903.2 927.6 930.5 947.6 n ra Governmu?nt purchases of goods and services Nonresidential fixed 1,122.4 1,185.9 1,254.3 1,246.3 1,231.6 1,298.2 1,369.7 1,438.6 1,479.4 1,474.0 1,502.6 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 ports of goo ds and services 13 2.4 12.1 16.5 4.8 -15.4 -4.4 Net exports Exports 71.0 Imports Total 250.1 253.1 253.3 260.3 265.2 265.2 269.2 274.6 278.3 284.6 Federal State and local sales 287.1 96.8 100.4 100.3 102.1 106.5 110.4 167.8 168.4 168.8 174.3 176.2 178.1 176.7 1,114.3 1,175.3 1,237.1 1,234.7 1,238.4 1,290.4 1,356.4 1,422.6 1,472.2 1,479.0 1,493.7 102.8 109.6 283.4 283.2 105.5 104.8 177.9 178.4 1,47 2 A 1,485.7 159.3 159.7 157.8 156.9 111.1 115.5 118.7 120.4 286.8 283.9 286.4 291.3 107.9 107.0 110.7 116.0 179.0 176.9 175.7 175.3 1,505.4 1,490.1 1,493.9 1,485.3 151.7 154.4 114.7 118.7 289.2 285.3 114.4 110.3 174.9 175.0 1,486.1 1,482.7 69.3 76.7 103.7 101.7 95.9 96.6 97.4 146.4 151.4 157.4 163.6 IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1972 = 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Period Gross national product Personal c Misumption expen< litures Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Gross priva te domestic mves tment Exports aiid imports of goods aiid services Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed Exports 96.2 100.0 103.8 115.4 132.2 138.6 146.3 157.2 170.8 186.1 201.3 94.8 100.0 109.1 120.3 131.0 140.7 158.0 178.3 200.5 218.5 233.6 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 96.01 100.00 105.75 115.08 125.79 132.34 140.05 150.42 163.42 178.64 195.51 96.5 100.0 105.7 116.4 125.3 131.7 139.3 149.1 162.5 179.2 194.5 108.2 117.3 123.9 129.2 136.4 145.0 156.3 167.5 132.5 137.2 143.6 153.4 169.9 188.4 . 202.7 95.6 100.0 104.7 113.0 121.6 129.6 139.3 150.0 162.3 178.8 196.3 1980: ffl IV 180.60 185.16 181.2 185.5 158.0 161.1 190.5 195.1 180.9 185.4 187.9 190.8 1981: I 190.01 193.17 197.36 201.55 189.2 192.6 196.4 199.8 163.0 166.2 169.7 171.3 199.3 201.7 204.2 205.6 189.6 193.4 198.6 203.6 203.68 205.98 202.2 204.0 173.0 174.0 206.8 207.1 207.4 210.6 1971 1972 n m IV 1982: I n Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 99.0 100.0 101.7 96.6 100.0 108.5 123.4 97.0 100.0 112.7 134.8 Imports 93.3 100.0 Governmen t purchases of goods a nd services Federal 92.7 100.0 106.3 114.9 126.0 State and local 149.6 155.3 161.9 172.6 192.5 213.1 231.8 116.7 164.6 179.6 185.6 205.5 214.1 246.1 289.3 293.1 133.5 142.8 153.1 164.8 185.2 207.4 94.7 100.0 107.0 118.0 129.4 138.3 148.4 159.7 173.7 191.6 208.2 221.8 223.4 216.3 223.5 290.1 294.9 183.3 197.5 194.0 197.8 194.5 200.7 203.0 206.8 229.0 231.7 235.8 239.2 229.3 230.9 232.6 234.5 300.7 298.7 287.7 286.1 201.2 204.0 207.8 216.0 201.7 206.3 210.7 214.3 207.6 211.3 240.5 238.6 237.3 236.8 286.4 278.8 218.3 221.6 217.5 220.9 CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Grc ss national pr()duct Period Current dollars 5.2 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1980: 1981: Constant (1972) dollars 8.6 10.1 11.8 8.1 8.0 10.9 11.7 12.8 11.7 8.9 11.6 11.4 15.3 19.6 5.3 11.4 3.0 HI IV I n m IV 1982: I -1.0 6.8 n Implicit price deflator Chain price index 5.4 5.5 5.0 2.8 -.4 1.9 5.4 5.0 4.2 5.8 8.8 9.3 5.2 5.8 7.4 8.6 9.3 9.4 1.6 4.3 9.6 10.5 7.9 1.5 2.2 10.9 6.8 9.0 8.8 4.3 4.6 -0.2 3.4 5.7 5.8 -.6 -1.2 -5.3 -5.1 2.1 Personal consumption e spenditures Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) 5.3 4.9 4.1 6.0 9.1 9.2 5.7 6.1 7.6 8.9 9.0 9.4 9.7 11.0 9.3 8.2 9.2 8.4 5.2 4.8 4.0 6.0 9.4 9.1 5.8 6.3 7.8 9.5 9.9 9.6 2.2 3.7 5.8 4.2 -.7 2.2 5.6 5.0 4.5 2.7 .3 1.8 9.6 10.2 9.4 9.9 11.0 11.1 11.8 11.9 10.6 10.6 15.6 16.1 13.0 4.4 11.3 3.4 7.6 6.1 11.2 10.0 8.4 8.9 8.5 5.0 4.6 NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter. 6.9 8.1 9.4 4.8 4.1 Implicit price deflator Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars Chain price index 4.6 4.3 3.7 5.7 4.6 4.3 3.6 6.1 10.1 10.4 7.6 5.1 5.8 7.0 9.0 7.7 5.3 6.0 7.3 9.3 10.3 10.7 8.6 9.1 5.4 5.7 9.6 9.8 10.0 4.4 8.3 7.3 8.2 7.0 10.3 5.0 3.5 5.2 3.6 _2.7 2.9 -3.3 2.5 2.5 Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) 9.8 7.4 8.0 7.2 4.5 4.2 3.5 6.1 10.4 7.8 5.3 6.2 7.4 9.7 11.2 9.3 9.8 10.1 10.9 7.7 7.6 7.1 4.8 3.2 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Current-dollar cc st and profit per unit of output (dolla rs) 1 Gross d omestic product of ilonfinancial corporate business (billions c f dollars) Period Current dollars 563.7 609.9 678.0 759.4 818.9 890.0 1,001.3 1,128.4 1,276.2 1,416.8 1,537.7 1,732.3 599.6 626.8 678.0 731.9 708.2 694.2 745.5 795.8 846.3 876.1 860.3 881.3 0.940 .973 1.000 1.038 1.156 1.282 1.343 1.418 1.508 1.617 1.787 1.966 HI IV 1,543.6 1,606.5 852.5 867.4 1.811 1,852 I 1,683.3 1,715.0 1,763.6 1,767.2 883.0 884.2 887.5 870.4 1.906 1.940 1.987 2.030 1,756.6 1,771.0 858.8 857.9 2.045 2.064 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1980: 1981: 1972 dollars Total cost and profit 2 n m IV 1982: I n Capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment 0.087 .091 .092 .093 .112 .137 .141 .145 .155 .171 .200 .222 .206 .208 .211 .218 .224 .236 .242 .247 Indirect business taxes 3 0.631 .641 .659 .692 .786 .837 .878 .928 .998 1.094 1.211 1.305 1.224 1.245 1.267 1.289 1.315 1.349 1.376 1.388 0.106 .113 .113 .114 .127 .140 .141 .141 .144 .149 .173 .202 .178 .186 .196 .202 .203 .208 .205 .211 1 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1972 dollars. 2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the3decimal point shifted two places to the left. Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. Compensation of employees 4 Corporate profits with inventory valuation £md capital c(msumption adjustments _ Net interest Total 0.028 .029 .028 .031 .042 .044 .040 .040 .044 .050 .061 .071 .061 .066 .062 .069 .074 .078 .082 .085 0.088 .099 .107 .107 .090 .124 .144 .163 .168 .154 .143 .165 .143 .147 .170 .161 .171 .159 .140 .134 Profits tax liability 0.045 .047 .049 .055 .059 .059 .071 .075 .079 .079 .075 .072 .075 .078 .081 .069 .074 .063 .045 .043 Profits after tax 4 0.043 .052 .058 .053 .030 .065 .073 .088 .089 .075 .068 .093 .068 .069 .089 .091 .097 .096 .095 .091 o per hour of all employees (1972 dollars) Compensation per hour of all employees (dollars) 7.126 7.466 7.688 7.890 7.621 7.880 8.131 8.315 8.396 8.411 8.385 8.536 10.153 11.139 8.411 8.453 10.292 10.521 8.551 8.543 8.550 8.500 10.833 11.015 11.243 11.470 8.510 8.558 11.709 11.891 4.498 4.788 5.067 5.457 5.989 6.596 7.138 7.716 8.377 9.198 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period National income Compensation of employeesl Proprietors' income with inventory vttluation and capital coiisumption adjust ments Farm Nonfarm Corporate p rofits with inv sntory valuatio n and capital sonsumption adjustments Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment Profits \*dth inventory valuation adjustmc nt and withou t capital constimption adjust ment Total 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 871.5 963.6 1,086.2 1,160.7 1,239.4 1,379.2 1,550.5 1,760.3 1,966.7 2,117.1 2,352.5 652.2 718.0 801.3 877.5 931.4 1,036.3 1,152.1 1,301.1 1,458.1 1,598.6 1,767.6 15.0 18.7 32.8 26.5 24.6 19.1 19.1 26.3 31.9 19.4 24.0 54.4 58.1 61.0 62.2 65.4 75.0 84.8 92.2 100.2 96.9 100.7 20.2 21.0 22.6 23.5 23.0 23.5 24.8 26.6 27.9 32.9 33.9 83.2 96.6 108.3 94.9 110.5 138.1 167.3 192.4 194.8 181.6 190.6 82.0 94.0 105.6 96.7 120.6 151.6 178.5 205.1 209.6 199.4 207.5 1980: HI IV 2,122.3 2,199.2 1,604.9 1,662.8 20.3 19.2 95.1 98.8 33.8 34.2 177.8 181.2 1981: I II...., 2,293.7 2,324.4 2,387.3 2,404.5 1,718.0 1,750.0 1,789.1 1,813.4 21.6 22.5 27.1 24.6 101.8 101.2 100.4 99.5 34.4 34.0 33.6 33.6 2,396.9 2,425.2 1,830.8 1,850.7 17.8 17.4 98.6 99.9 33.9 34.2 in.... IV 1982: I n 1 Inventory valuation adjustment Profits Total Capital eonsump- Net interest adjustment 125.6 136.7 132.1 166.3 194.7 229.1 252.7 242.4 232.1 -6.6 -20.0 -40.0 11.6 -14.7 -16.2 -24.0 -43.1 -43.0 -24.6 1.3 2.7 2.7 -1.8 -10.1 -13.5 -11.3 12.7 -14.8 17.8 -16.8 197.0 200.4 238.1 245.9 -41.1 -45.5 -19.3 -19.2 190.4 ' 203.0 200.3 185.1 193.1 183.9 217.6 202.6 210.3 199.4 253.1 225.4 233.3 216.5 -35.5 -22.8 -23.0 -17.1 -17.3 -17.5 -17.1 -15.5 217.6 231.6 244.0 249.5 157.1 155.4 167.2 162.2 171.6 171.7 -4.4 -9.4 -10.1 -6.9 258.7 267.5 86.6 100.6 4.6 46.5 51.2 60.2 76.1 84.5 87.2 102.5 121.7 153.8 187.7 235.7 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nondural)le goods Durable goods Period Total personal consumption expenditures Total durable goods * Motor vehicles and parts Furniture and household equipment Total nondurable goods * Food Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil Services Retail salres of new passeng er cars (millions of units) Domestics Imports 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 672.2 737.1 812.0 888.1 976.4 1,084.3 1,204.4 1,346.5 1,507.2 1,667.2 1,843.2 97.2 111.1 123.3 121.5 132.2 156.8 178.2 200.2 213.4 214.3 234.6 45.4 52.4 57.1 50.4 55.8 72.6 84.8 95.7 96.6 89.7 98.6 37.2 41.7 47.1 50.6 53.5 59.1 65.7 72.8 81.8 86.3 93.4 278.8 300.6 333.4 373.4 407.3 441.7 478.8 528.2 600.0 670.4 734.5 144.2 154.9 172.1 193.7 213.6 230.6 249.8 275.9 311.6 343.7 375.3 50.6 55.4 61.4 64.8 69.6 75.3 82.6 92.4 99.1 104.7 114.6 23.9 25.4 28.6 36.6 40.4 44.0 48.1 51.2 66.6 87.0 96.8 296.2 325.3 355.2 393.2 437.0 485.7 547.4 618.0 693.7 782.5 874.1 8.7 9.3 9.6 7.4 7.0 8.5 9.0 9.2 8.2 6.6 6.2 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.3 1980: HI IV 1,682.0 1,745.8 212.7 224.7 88.1 93.7 86.0 90.4 673.7 700.5 346.4 358.0 104.8 108.9 87.0 92.8 795.6 820.6 6.4 6.7 2.3 2.5 1981: I 1,799.9 1,819.4 1,868.8 1,884.5 236.9 230.4 241.2 229.6 102.1 94.2 104.0 93.9 93.1 93.3 93.8 93.3 720.6 729.6 741.3 746.5 368.8 372.1 378.0 382.3 112.3 114.0 115.9 116.0 95.2 96.7 97.7 97.5 842.4 859.4 886.3 908.3 7.2 5.7 6.8 5.2 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 1,919.4 1,947.8 237.9 240.7 103.2 103.3 91.0 93.2 749.1 755.0 387.9 395.0 117.5 118.4 95.3 91.3 932.4 952.1 5.8 5.5 2.2 2.0 n in IV 1982: I n 1 Total includes other items not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $8.6 billion (annual rate) in August, following a rise of $26.2 billion in July. About $12.0 billion of the July increase resulted from a cost-of-living adjustment to several transfer programs. Wages and salaries rose $2.6 billion in August compared with a rise of $7.8 billion in July. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 2,800 2,800 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 800 800 „...."**"" 600 600 OTHER INCOME , 400 400 ,..,...."*"" TRANSFER PAYMENTS \ -, 200 200 160 160 120 120 1974 1975 1976 1979 1978 1977 1980 1981 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1982 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Proprietor 3' income 3 Period 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July" Aug". 1 Total personal income salary Other labor Farm ments * 1,168.6 1,265.0 1,391.2 1,540.4 1,732.7 1,951.2 2,160.4 2,415.8 765.7 806.4 889.9 983.2 1,106.3 1,237.6 1,356.1 1,493.9 2,459.6 2,478.6 2,487.2 2,499.0 2,497.6 1,513.6 1,522.1 1,528.9 1,534.2 1,530.5 2,499.1 2,513.8 2,518.6 2,535.5 2,556.2 2,566.3 2,592.5 2,601.0 1,535.7 1,546.6 1,542.6 1,546.6 1,560.4 1,562.9 1,570.6 1,573.3 55.8 64.5 75.9 89.4 102.5 114.9 127.2 140.4 142.2 143.5 144.7 145.8 146.9 148.0 149.1 150.2 151.3 152.5 153.6 154.6 155.7 26.5 24.6 19.1 19.1 26.3 31.9 19.4 24.0 28.2 27.2 26.3 24.7 22.8 19.9 17.3 16.3 16.9 17.3 18.0 18.2 18.4 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements, ^Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workmen's compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Nonfarm 62.2 65.4 75.0 84,8 92.2 100.2 96.9 100.7 100.4 100.3 99.0 100.1 99.5 98.6 98.4 98.8 99.3 100.3 100.2 100.7 101.2 Rental income of persons 4 Personal dividend income Personal interest income Transfer 23.5 23.0 29.1 29.9 23.5 24.8 26.6 27.9 32.9 33.9 33.4 33.9 33.6 33.6 33.6 33.7 33.9 34.0 34.1 34.2 34.3 34.5 34.6 36.5 39.6 45.3 50.8 55.9 62.5 64.2 64.7 65.0 65.2 65.4 65.6 65.9 65.9 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.6 67.3 112.4 123.2 132.5 141.2 178.3 194.3 152.8 179.4 218.7 207.9 223.8 250.3 297.2 336.3 263.4 329.0 340.0 346.9 349.7 351.1 352.1 355.5 359.8 363.8 368.0 372.0 376.0 379.9 382.5 payments 343.9 346.5 347.1 351.5 353.6 352.4 353.8 357.5 363.9 364.8 366.9 379.8 380.7 4 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance 47.9 50.4 55.5 61.1 69.8 81.1 88.7 104.9 106.2 106.3 107.0 107.2 106.8 110.3 110.9 110.6 110.8 111.6 111.7 112.4 112.6 Nonfarm personal income 6 1,131.8 1,229.1 1,359.3 1,506.5 1,689.7 1,899.3 2,117.3 2,364.1 2,403.0 2,422.7 2,431.8 2,444.6 2,444.6 2,448.6 2,465.5 2,470.8 2,486.8 2,506.9 2,516.0 2,541.6 2,549.6 With capital consumption adjustment. Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. 5 6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable income rose in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) q 2,400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,400 C 3,000 3,000 1982 1974 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Personal income Less: Personal tax and nontax payments COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Equals: Disposable personal income Less: Personal1 outlays Equals: Personal saving Per c apita disposable personal incc>me Per capitai personal consulnption expenclitures Current dollars Current dollars 1972 dollars Billions of doll ars 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1,065.2 1,168.6 1,265.0 1,391.2 1,540.4 1,732.7 1,951.2 2,160.4 2,415.8 150.7 170.2 168.9 196.8 226.4 258.7 301.0 336.3 386.7 914.5 998.3 1,096.1 1,194.4 1,314.0 1,474.0 1,650.2 1,824.1 2,029.1 1972 dollars 79.0 85.1 94.3 82.5 78.0 89.4 96.7 106.2 130.2 4,315 4,667 5,075 5,477 5,965 6,621 7,331 8,012 8,827 4,080 4,009 4,051 4,158 4,280 4,441 4,512 4,472 4,538 Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population (thou-2 sands) Per cent Do lars 835.5 913.2 1,001.8 1,111.9 1,236.0 1,384.6 1,553.5 1,717.9 1,898.9 Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income 4,521 4,972 5,468 6,048 6,695 7,323 8,018 3,623 3,566 3,609 3,774 3,924 4,057 4,121 4,087 4,123 5.7 -1.7 1.0 2.6 2.9 3.8 1.6 -.9 1.5 8.5 8.6 6.9 5.9 6.1 5.9 5.8 6.4 211,939 213,898 215,981 218,086 220,289 222,629 225,106 227,654 229,872 3,831 4,152 8.6 Seas anally adju sted annual rates 1980: m IV 2,185.3 2,260.0 339.7 357.1 1,845.5 1,902.9 1,732.5 1,797.6 113.1 105.3 8,095 8,325 4,466 4,487 7,378 7,638 4,071 4,117 3.9 1.9 6.1 5.5 227,978 228,579 1981: I 2,330.0 2,380.6 2,458.2 2,494.6 371.2 384.2 398.1 393.2 1,958.7 1,996.5 2,060.0 2,101.4 1,852.8 1,874.5 1,925.7 1,942.7 105.9 122.0 134.4 158.6 8,551 8,698 8,951 9,107 4,519 4,516 4,557 4,559 7,858 7,926 8,120 8,167 4,152 4,115 4,134 4,088 2.9 -.3 3.7 .2 5.4 6.1 6.5 7.5 229,053 229,539 230,145 230,751 2,510.5 2,552.7 393.4 401.2 2,117.1 2,151.5 1,977.9 2,007.2 139.1 144.3 9,155 9,285 4,527 4,552 8,300 8,406 4,104 4,121 -2.8 2.2 6.6 6.7 231,246 231,724 n m IV 1982: I n 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). 2 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the fourth quarter of 1981, gross and net farm income each declined $2.7 billion (annual rate) from their third quarter levels. Data are not yet available for 1982. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 200 n 1200 100 100 GROSS FARM INCOME 80 80 60 60 40 40 NET FARM INCOME — / / 20 20 V ^ J 10 1973 1974 | I I 1975 I J I I 1978 1976 I 1980 1979 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE I 1981 I COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income (Jross Period Gas h Total 1 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1980: I n m IV 1981: I n m IV 1 Total Net farni income marketing receipts Livestock and products 98.0 101.0 101.9 108.6 127.3 151.3 150.6 166.8 92.4 88.9 95.4 96.2 112.5 131.7 139.5 143.5 41.3 43.1 46.3 148.6 145.2 153.2 155.4 161.8 164.7 171.5 168.8 Crops Value of inventory changes 2 Production expenses Current dollars 1967 dollars 3 47.6 58.8 68.6 67.8 68.5 51.1 45.8 49.0 48.6 53.7 63.1 71.7 75.0 -1.6 3.4 -2.4 1.0 1.1 5.6 -4.3 5.5 75.8 83.3 90.2 100.6 119.0 130.5 141.6 26.0 25.2 18.7 18.4 26.7 32.4 20.1 25.1 13.6 14.9 8.2 9.2 135.3 134.3 143.6 144.8 66.7 64.4 69.3 70.8 68.6 69.9 74.3 74.0 -1.4 -4.2 -6.0 -5.6 125.7 128.7 132.0 135.4 22.9 16.5 21.2 20.0 9.5 6.8 8.5 7.8 142.5 142.3 146.7 142.5 67.9 69.4 71.0 65.7 74.6 72.9 75.7 76.8 139.0 141.0 143.2 143.2 22.8 23.7 28.3 25.6 8.6 8.8 10.2 9.1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. of farm ope rators from farmi ng farm incom B 3 2.5 5.3 7.2 7.0 72.0 Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index (Department of Labor). Source: Department of Agriculture, except as noted. 17.6 15.6 11.0 10.2 CORPORATE PROFITS In the second quarter of 1982, according to revised estimates, corporate profits before tax were about unchanged from their first quarter level while after-tax profits rose $1.3 billion (annual rate). BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320 320 120 120 80 80 40 40 1982 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Pr ofits (before t ax) with inve ntory valuation adjustmen t 1 Profits after ta X Doimestic indust ries Nonfmaneial Period Total 2 Total 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 155.9 158.1 58.7 59.6 97.3 98.5 -41.1 -45.5 161.6 146.2 150.8 144.9 61.5 64.0 66.8 68.1 100.1 82.2 84.0 76.9 -35.5 -22.8 -23.0 -17.1 115.0 116.3 68.8 69.3 46.1 47.0 -4.4 -9.4 167.0 159.0 168.5 153.3 90.3 88.9 92.2 73.7 33.0 32.1 33.0 35.7 253.1 210.3 199.4 26.8 22.7 20.8 20.4 216.5 91.5 79.2 82.4 71.6 167.2 162.2 150.3 144.1 20.0 22.2 130.4 121.9 57.7 56.6 31.9 26.8 171.6 171.7 56.7 55.3 217.6 202.6 74.9 85.3 92.0 80.4 107.6 137.4 163.4 185.4 179.0 169.1 184.6 14.1 15.3 15.9 15.0 11.8 17.1 23.1 31.0 30.3 29.2 22.7 167.5 175.5 60.8 70.0 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. Includes industries not shown separately. 82.2 87.8 193.8 181.7 189.3 173.7 1981: I 1 49.6 55.2 50.7 65.1 81.2 98.9 112.4 99.7 85.8 -4.6 -6.6 -20.0 -40.0 11.6 -14.7 16.2 -24.0 -43.1 -43.0 24.6 24.4 27.3 200.4 3 22.9 24.4 27.0 29.9 30.8 37.4 40.8 47.0 52.7 58.1 65.1 70.0 78.1 197.0 1980: ffl IV 2 49.0 58.9 76.6 85.1 81.5 102.5 122.0 145.9 165.1 157.8 150.9 140.3 146.1 207.5 n 37.5 41.6 49.0 51.6 50.6 63.8 72.7 83.2 87.6 84.7 81.2 27.2 29.4 199.4 1982: I 86.6 100.6 125.6 136.7 132.1 166.3 194.7 229.1 Whole sale and retail trade 76.0 65.4 95.8 120.3 140.3 154.4 148.6 140.0 162.0 209.6 IV Manufacturing 11.7 13.4 13.9 12.5 21.3 22.4 26.6 105.6 96.7 120.6 151.6 178.5 205.1 n m Total 3 Tax liability 34.1 40.7 45.5 39.0 52.6 69.2 78.3 86.9 85.6 74.5 86.3 82.0 94.0 1971 Financial 26.9 27.1 24.6 33.4 Inventory valuation adjustment Profits before tax 252.7 242.4 232.1 238.1 245.9 225.4 233.3 Total Dividends Undistributed profits 26.1 34.5 NOTE.—First- and second-quarter 1982 estimates of profits tax liability have been revised to incorporate the effects of the enactment of the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to revised estimates for the second quarter, business fixed investment declined $4.8 billion (annual rate) from its first quartet level and residential investment outlays rose $2.1 billion. There was a $16.2 billion decrease in inventories following a $35.6 billion decrease in the first quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 550 550 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 500 500 450 V GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 400 350 350 300 300 NONRESIDENTIAL -FIXED INVESTMENT - 250 250 200 200 RESIDENTIAL -FIXED INVESTMENT- 150 150 100 100 CHANGE IN BUSINESS_ INVENTORIES 50 50 \ 0 0 -50 i 1974 1976 1975 1977 1979 1978 1980 i I i I -50 1982 1981 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] WOSS Period private domestic investment Nonresic ential fixed urvestment Total 166.4 195.0 229.8 228.7 206.1 257.9 324.1 386.6 423.0 402.3 471.5 121.0 143.3 156.6 157.7 174.1 205.2 248.9 290.2 309.2 346.1 1980: m 384.1 410.3 1981: I 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 rv n m IV 1982: I n Producers' durable equipment Total Nonfarm structures Farm structures 50.9 63.8 68.0 57.9 55.3 72.0 95.8 111.2 118.6 103.2 104.9 48.9 61.5 65.6 54.8 52.4 68.8 92.0 107.0 114.0 98.3 99.7 0.7 .7 .7 58.8 64.4 78.7 98.3 110.5 129.7 67.4 76.9 92.3 100.7 102.3 115.3 140.8 170.2 191.9 198.6 216.4 307.8 317.5 109.5 112.6 198.2 204.9 97.6 110.5 93.5 105.4 455.7 475.5 486.0 468.9 330.0 341.3 353.0 360.2 119.6 127.0 132.7 139.6 210.4 214.3 220.2 220.6 113.6 109.5 101.2 95.5 414.8 431.5 357.0 352.2 141.4 143.6 215.6 208.6 93.4 95.5 107.9 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Structures Residential fc ed investment 40.5 44.1 51.0 55.9 55.4 Change iii business inveu tones Producers' durable equipment Total 3.0 3.2 7.7 10.2 18.5 14.1 -6.9 11.8 23.0 26.5 14.3 -10.0 20.5 1.0 2.0 3.0 3.1 21.2 -17.7 109.1 104.7 95.6 89.4 1.3 1.6 2.4 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 12.2 24.6 31.8 13.2 87.9 89.6 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.2 -35.6 16.2 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.9 Nonfarm 6.4 9.6 15.2 16.0 10.5 13.9 21.9 25.4 8.6 -5.7 15.0 -15.4 -12.3 10.0 19.3 24.6 6.0 -36.0 -15.0 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT—NONFARM BUSINESS According to the Commerce Department July-August survey, nonfarm business spending for new plant and equipment for the year 1982 is expected to be 0.7 percent above 1981. Spending in 1981 was 8.7 percent above 1980. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 400 400 TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT 300 300 200 200 100 100 80 80 MANUFACTURING •}•"' 60 60 40 40 I 30 I I , J/ , U I 1974 1975 1976 1977 1979 1978 1980 30 1982 1981 _]/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Plant and equip ment Period Total Plant M anufaeturin g Equipment Total 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 4 1981: I n in IV 1982: I n4 m4 IV Durable goods 61.24 63.10 62.58 60.78 63.27 62.40 67.53 66.14 187.74 191.24 198.13 200.92 60.84 59.03 59.98 58.80 67.48 64.74 63.10 64.09 199.40 199.46 197.15 201.57 53.21 54.92 59.95 69.22 79.72 98.68 115.81 126.79 124.23 26.33 28.47 34.04 40.43 51.07 58.91 61.84 59.50 312.24 316.73 328.25 327.83 128.57 131.05 136.40 136.67 183.67 185.68 191.85 191.17 124.50 125.49 130.11 126.91 327.72 323.22 320.24 324.47 139.49 137.95 188.23 185.28 128.32 123.77 123.09 122.89 27.44 Wholesale and retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and personal, business, and professional services. 2 "Other" consists of construction; social services and membership organizations; and forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services. Mining 47.61 56.90 64.95 64.74 92.69 92.50 100.25 117.77 138.54 164.73 178.08 188.04 10 Total 4.62 6.10 7.44 9.24 10.21 11.38 13.51 16.86 16.48 64.29 65.21 71.20 80.31 92.70 105.73 117.55 133.46 1 Nondurable goods 103.78 102.79 111.50 128.87 151.52 171.77 179.81 194.70 199.43 156.98 157.71 171.45 198.08 231.24 270.46 295.63 321.49 323.66 Starts of plant and Nonmanuifaeturing 25.76 28.59 31.47 35.18 39.29 Transportation Public utilities Trade and services * ment projects, manufacturing 3 68.66 79.26 81.79 86.33 87.40 23.30 21.80 23.51 26.90 32.02 34.83 36.99 41.06 42.33 56.51 59.38 77.40 88.16 112.98 123.32 135.19 36.05 37.84 39.55 39.74 83.43 85.88 87.55 88.33 40.32 39.02 41.89 42.92 35.41 32.90 33.33 33.68 40.12 41.40 40.54 41.65 87.80 88.85 86.71 86.07 41.89 40.33 42.85 44.09 27.73 29.03 9.40 10.68 12.35 12.09 12.05 12.33 19.83 19.98 22.37 26.79 29.95 33.96 35.44 38.40 40.90 47.79 46.23 49.30 56.54 16.20 16.80 17.55 16.81 11.74 11.70 11.61 13.12 17.60 16.56 15.66 16.20 11.99 12.32 11.38 13.56 8.23 8.68 8.89 Communication and other 2 3 61.24 Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during given period. 4 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late July and August 1982, corrected for biases. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE Seasonally adjusted employment rose 107,000 in August and unemployment rose 15,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS' MILLIONS OF PERSONS' 1974 1982 *!6 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted] Unemp oyment Civilian e mployment Period Noninstitutional population Civilian employment Total labor force (including Armed Forces) labor force 6,137 7,637 8,273 98,302 101,142 104,368 107,050 109,042 110,812 96,158 99,009 102,251 104,962 106,940 108,670 88,752 92,017 96,048 98,824 99,303 100,397 3,331 3,283 3,387 3,347 3,364 3,368 ployment Total Part-time AgriculTotal Total 15 weeks economic reasons * 85,421 88,734 92,661 95,477 95,938 97,030 3,334 3,369 3,298 3,373 4,064 4,499 7,406 6,991 6,202 6,137 7,637 8,273 2,366 1,942 1,414 1,241 1,871 2,285 62.1 62.8 64.3 64.1 64.3 64.4 64.2 1980 1981 158,294 161,166 164,027 166,951 169,848 172,272 1981: Aug Sept Get Nov Dec 172,559 172,758 172,966 173,155 173,330 102,152 100,389 101,028 100,502 99,562 7,947 7,884 8,216 8,676 9,013 110,978 110,659 111,170 111,430 111,348 108,818 108,494 109,012 109,272 109,184 100,840 100,258 100,343 100,172 99,613 3,404 1 3,358 3,378 3,372 3,209 97,436 96,900 96,965 96,800 96,404 4,350 4,656 5,009 5,026 5,288 7,978 8,236 8,669 9,100 9,571 2,217 2,248 2,292 2,364 2,372 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug 173,495 173,657 173,843 174,020 174,201 174,364 174,544 174,707 97,831 97,946 98,471 98,858 99,957 100,683 101,490 101,177 10,183 10,378 10,290 9,957 9,957 10,886 11,036 10,710 111,038 111,333 111,521 111,824 112,841 112,364 112,702 112,840 108,879 109,165 109,346 109,648 110,666 110,191 110,522 110,644 99,581 99,590 99,492 99,340 100,117 99,764 99,732 99,839 3,411 3,373 3,349 3,309 3,488 3,357 3,460 3,435 96,170 96,217 96,144 96,032 96,629 96,406 96,272 96,404 5,071 5,563 5,717 5,834 5,763 5,444 5,492 5,648 9,298 9,575 9,854 10,307 10,549 10,427 10,790 10,805 2,399 2,724 2,954 3,015 3,286 3,673 3,580 3,631 1976 1977 1978* 1979 88,752 92,017 96,048 98,824 99,303 100,397 7,406 6,991 6,202 63.6 64.1 64.2 64.3 Seas anally adjus ted U nadjusted 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc. 3 Total tabor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of age ami over. Ijabor force participation rate2 (percent) i 64.0 64.1 64.2 64.3 64.8 64.4 64.6 64.6 *Data beginning 1978 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of revisions in the household survey, which added about 250,000 to labor force and to employment. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In August the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 9.8 percent, the same as in July. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 25 25 20 I -A TEENAGERS - (16-19) - 10 WOMEN 20 YEARS AND OVER •»w.* | \ MEN 20 YEARS AND OVER Lu 1978 1980 1978 1982 1981 •UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1982 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] TJnemployment rate (p<jrcent of civt ian labor fon e in group) I y sex and ag e Period 1976 1977 1978.... 1979 1980 1981 1981: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug 1 Total (all civilian workers) Men 20 years and over 7.7 7.1 6.1 5.8 7.1 7.6 5.9 5.2 4.3 4.2 5.9 6.3 7.3 7.6 8.0 8.3 8.8 8.5 8.8 9.0 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.8 9.8 Women 20 years and over Both sexes 16-19 years White Labor force time lost (percent) * Black and other Experienced wage and salary workers 7.3 6.6 5.6 5.5 6.9 7.3 3.6 2.8 2.8 4.2 4.3 10.1 9.4 8.5 8.3 9.2 10.4 7.3 6.6 5.6 5.3 6.9 7.3 10.1 9.9 9.0 8.8 8.8 9.4 8.3 7.6 6.5 6.3 7.9 8.5 Married men, spouse present Women who maintain families Full-time workers Part-time workers 5.7 6.4 6.8 19.0 17.8 16.4 16.1 17.8 19.6 7.0 6.2 5.2 5.1 6.3 6.7 13.1 13.1 11.9 11.3 13.1 14.2 6.0 6.2 6.7 7.1 7.9 6.6 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.4 19.0 19.7 20.4 21.4 21.5 6.2 6.6 7.0 7.4 7.7 14.7 14.8 15.2 15.2 15.7 6.9 7.3 7.6 8.0 8.5 4.0 4.4 4.8 5.2 5.7 10.1 10.7 10.6 10.8 10.5 6.9 7.3 7.7 8.1 8.7 9.6 9.6 9.5 10.2 9.2 7.9 8.5 9.1 9.5 10.1 7.5 7.6 7.9 8.2 8.4 8.7 8.8 8.9 7.2 7.6 7.9 8.3 8.3 8.1 8.4 8.2 21.7 22.3 21.9 23.0 23.1 22.3 24.1 24.0 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.7 8.6 15.1 15.9 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.1 17.3 17.5 8.2 8.4 8.8 9.2 9.3 9.2 9.4 9.3 5.3 5.3 5.5 6.0 6.1 6.5 6.6 6.7 10.4 10.2 10.6 11.5 11.8 12.4 12.0 11.6 8.4 8.5 8.9 9.2 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.6 10.8 10.0 10.9 10.5 9.8 11.4 10.3 10.0 9.8 10.4 10.4 11.1 10.2 10.7 10.7 7.4 7.0 6.0 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as pe nt of potentially available labor force hours. 12 By selected gro ups By race 4.2 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In August, the percentage of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 15 weeks fell slightly, and the percentage out of work for 15 weeks and longer periods rose slightly. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT 60 JOB LOSERS 50 40 - REENTRANTS 30 20 JOB LEAVERS 10 - - 10 NEW ENTRANTS ! i1 11 1982 1978 I1 111 1979 1978 1980 1981 1982 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMtNT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Percent distribution of unemplo^yment by dura tion * IT , Period (thousands) Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks 27 weeks and over Percent distribution of unemployment by rea son * Job losers Job leavers Reentrants New entrants Sta te progr ams Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) 2 Special unemployment benefit claims (unadjusted)« 1Weekly avei*age, thousan ds 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981: 1982: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June .... July Aug 1 Detail 2 6,991 6,202 6,137 7,637 8,273 41.8 46.2 48.1 43.1 41.7 30.5 31.0 31.7 32.3 30.7 13.1 12.4 11.5 13.8 13.6 14.7 10.4 8.7 10.7 14.0 45.3 41.7 42.9 51.7 51.6 13.0 14.1 14.3 11.7 11.2 28.1 29.9 29.4 25.2 25.4 13.6 14.3 13.3 11.4 11.9 2,655 2,359 2,434 3,350 3,048 375 346 388 488 460 3,308 2,645 2,592 3,837 3,410 7,978 8,236 8,669 9,100 9,571 41.5 42.2 42.7 42.3 42.8 30.8 30.9 30.9 31.7 32.0 13.5 13.7 13.4 13.5 12.6 14.2 13.2 13.0 12.5 12.6 51.4 52.8 52.4 53.6 56.1 11.0 11.0 11.2 10.0 25.5 24.6 25.0 25.5 23.5 12.2 11.7 11.5 10.9 10.7 2,844 2,961 3,159 3,428 3,583 435 482 522 541 567 2,874 2,680 2,753 3,228 3,935 9,298 9,575 9,854 10,307 10,549 10,427 10,790 10,805 41.3 39.6 38.8 38.5 37.0 33.2 37.2 36.1 32.9 31.9 31.2 32.1 31.7 32.4 29.5 30.4 13.0 15.1 16.3 14.7 15.6 17.1 16.7 16.7 12.8 13.4 13.7 14.7 15.8 17.3 16.7 16.8 56.7 54.3 57.4 57.4 56.9 59.6 57.4 58.1 22.7 24.0 22.9 23.0 23.5 22.4 23.5 22.3 11.5 11.6 10.7 10.5 11.1 10.3 11.6 12.2 3,546 3,484 3,736 4,022 4,032 4,140 3,938 4,101 562 517 594 579 595 555 516 611 4,681 4,723 4,892 4,760 4,387 4,328 4,993 may not add to 100 percent because of rounding. Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RE) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include FSB (Federal supplemental benefits) and SUA (special unemployment assistance). 9.7 9.1 10.2 9.0 9.1 8.4 7.7 7.5 7.4 3 572 FSB and SUA. These programs started January 1975 and regular reporting began March 1975. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT In August, total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey fell 211,000 from its July level. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) 22 WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE 90 ALL 20 NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS ,...„„...-" SERVICES [VICES 80 - - „.„...«" ^^1 ,..«••"•*" 70 GOVERNMENT SERVICE-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 60 22 MANUFACTURING 50 20 40 CONSTRUCTION _ GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 30 'UmrtiiM 20 1978 1980 1979 1978 1982 1981 1979 1980 1981 1982 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thousands of wage and salary workers; * seasonally adjusted] Service-p reducing ind astries Goods- producing inc ustries Period Total nonagricultural employment 1Anufaeturing Total 2 Construction Durable goods Wholesale and retail trade Finance, insurance, and real estate 5,160 5,301 20,650 20,660 20,654 20,623 20,524 5,319 5,328 5,325 5,324 5,331 18,654 18,707 18,773 18,815 18,834 2,769 2,764 2,757 2,749 2,756 13,125 13,140 13,160 13,159 13,161 20,630 20,670 20,655 20,584 20,652 20,595 20,613 20,531 5,326 5,326 5,336 5,335 5,342 5,352 5,358 5,375 18,831 18,867 18,904 18,929 18,963 18,988 19,057 19,077 2,741 2,737 2,736 2,730 2,728 2,739 2,733 2,721 13,123 13,113 13,123 13,122 13,125 13,093 12,980 12,979 4,713 4,923 5,136 5,146 5,157 18,516 19,542 20,192 4,467 4,724 4,975 4,176 58,125 61,113 63,363 64,748 65,625 20,310 20,551 25,637 25,583 25,393 25,176 24,908 4,146 4,124 4,101 4,071 4,026 20,311 20,267 20,097 19,903 19,676 12,228 12,184 12,059 11,901 11,724 8,083 8,083 8,038 8,002 7,952 65,685 65,780 65,831 65,820 65,734 5,168 5,181 5,162 5,150 5,128 24,684 24,631 24,450 24,289 24,255 23,994 23,880 23,730 3,966 3,974 3,934 3,938 3,988 3,940 3,929 3,902 19,517 19,454 19,319 19,169 19,115 18,930 18,844 18,729 11,622 11,575 11,490 11,375 11,332 11,203 11,157 11,027 7,895 65,776 7,879 65,828 7,829 65,854 7,794 65,794 7,783 65,911 7,727 ,65,845 7,687 65,782 7,702 65,721 5,125 5,115 5,100 5,094 5,101 5,078 5,041 5,038 91,322 91,363 91,224 90,996 90,642 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July*.... Aug*.... 90,460 90,459 90,304 90,083 90,166 89,839 89,662 89,451 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial dis- State and local 12,399 12,919 13,174 13,375 13,253 8,086 8,231 8,280 8,098 8,056 1981: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Federal 2,727 2,753 2,773 2,866 2,772 12,274 12,760 12,187 12,117 3,851 4,229 4,463 4,346 Government Services 15,303 16,252 17,112 17,890 18,592 11,597 24,346 25,585 26,461 25,658 25,481 Transportation and public utilities 19,682 86,697 89,823 90,406 91,105 14 Total 20,505 21,040 20,285 20,173 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 82,471 Total Nondurable goods putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. * Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average giross hourly earnings Average weekly hours Manufa eturing Total private nonagricultural * Period 1973 36.9 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981: 36.5 36.1 36.1 36.0 35.8 35.7 35.3 35.2 35.2 35.0 35.1 35.1 35.0 34.4 35.0 34.9 34.9 35.0 34.9 34.9 34.9 Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July* Aug* Total Total private nonagrieultural 1 Overtime 40.7 40.0 39.5 40.1 40.3 40.4 40.2 39.7 39.8 39.9 39.4 39.5 39.3 39.1 37.6 39.4 39.0 39.0 39.1 39.2 39.3 39.0 3.8 3.3 2.6 3.1 $3.94 4.24 4.53 4.86 3.5 3.6 3.3 2.8 2.8 5.25 5.69 6.16 6.66 7.25 7.34 7.37 7.40 7.45 7.46 7.52 7.53 7.54 7.59 7.65 7.67 7.70 7.73 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 Manufacturing $4.09 4.42 4.83 5.22 5.68 6.17 6.70 7.27 7.99 8.09 8.14 8.16 8.20 8.20 8.38 8.34 8.37 8.44 8.48 8.52 8.56 8.57 Adjust*;d hourly earnin gs index—total private nonagrie ultural 2 Percent chan|re from a year earlii3r 4 5 Ind ex, 1977 = 100 Current dollars Current dollars 1977 dollars 3 74.1 80.0 86.7 92.9 100.0 108.1 116.8 127.3 138.9 140.5 141.4 142.0 143.0 143.5 144.9 145.0 145.4 146.3 147.7 148.1 148.8 149.7 101.1 98.3 97.6 99.0 100.0 100.5 97.4 93.5 92.6 92.5 92.1 92.1 92.3 92.3 92.9 92.8 93.3 93.7 93.7 93.1 92.9 93.1 1977 dollars 6.2 8.0 8.4 7.2 7.6 8.1 8.0 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.3 8.6 8.4 8.2 -3.1 -4.C -1.0 8.3 7.5 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.5 .1 .1 .6 .8 .8 .2 .7 .7 -0.1 2.8 -.7 1.4 1.0 .5 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -.9 -.4 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Percent cllange from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural s Average gross weekly eaunings Period Manufacturing Total ]mvate nonagncultural * Current dollars $145.39 154.76 1973 1974 1975 1977 dollars 3 Construction Wholesale and retail trade $235.89 249.25 186.85 189.00 189.31 183.41 172.74 170.13 $166.46 176.80 190.79 209.32 228.90 249.27 269.34 288.62 318.00 266.08 283.73 295.65 318.69 342.99 367.78 398.52 119.02 126.45 133.79 142.52 153.64 164.96 176.46 190.95 $198.35 190.12 184.16 $111.76 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 163.53 175.45 189.00 203.70 219.91 235.10 255.20 1981: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dee 258.37 257.95 259.74 261.50 261.10 170.09 168.05 168.44 168.82 167.91 322.79 320.72 322.32 322.26 320.62 401.12 386.54 407.01 416.64 415.14 192.56 193.56 192.96 194.53 194.56 1982: 258.69 263.55 263.15 264.89 267.75 267.68 268.73 269.78 165.93 168.62 168.90 169.69 169.89 168.14 167.75 167.88 315.09 328.60 326.43 329.16 331.57 333.98 336.41 334.23 405.50 420.71 420.29 421.77 432.75 423.57 431.19 429.99 193.05 195.20 195.23 195.89 198.40 198.42 198.42 200.00 Jan Feb Mar Apr.... May June July*. Aug* ........v. ........ 1 4 2 5 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing. Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index on a 1977=100 base. Revised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 1978. 3 Current dollars 1977 dollars Current dollars 6.2 6.4 5.7 7.3 7.7 7.8 8.0 6.9 8.5 9.6 8.4 7.9 7.3 6.1 3.7 6.2 4.8 4.5 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.5 -0.0 -4.1 -3.1 1.5 1.2 .2 -3.1 -5.8 -1.5 -1.1 -2.2 -2.0 -1.8 -2.4 -4.1 -1.1 -1.6 -1.7 -1.2 -1.9 -1.4 -1.3 Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places. Based on unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Outp u t Period Business sector 1 Output per hour of all persons Hours of all perse ns 2 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector per Compens ation 3 Unit labor hour Business sector Nonfarm business sector Implicit price defla tor 4 COst Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 1977 = 100; quarterly ( ata seasons lly adjuste< 1 90.1 92.5 88.2 91.1 85.3 85.5 86.8 86.5 50.7 54.2 51.5 54.8 59.4 63.4 59.3 63.4 60.2 63.2 60.4 63.3 78.0 80.3 85.8 91.7 89.8 91.0 90.5 93.2 96.8 97.3 89.8 89.5 92.3 96.2 96.7 86.2 89.2 92.4 94.7 92.5 86.8 89.7 93.0 95.3 92.9 58.2 62.0 66.1 71.3 78.0 58.7 62.5 66.7 71.7 78.5 67.5 69.5 71.5 75.3 84.4 67.6 69.7 71.7 75.3 84.5 66.0 69.0 71.3 75.3 82.4 66.3 69.3 71.3 74.0 81.6 88.2 93.8 100.0 105.5 107.8 87.8 93.7 100.0 105.7 108.0 93.3 96.0 100.0 104.9 108.2 92.7 95.8 100.0 105.0 108.7 94.5 97.6 100.0 100.6 99.6 94.7 97.8 100.0 100.6 99.3 85.5 92.9 100.0 108.6 119.1 86.0 93.0 100.0 108.6 118.8 90.5 95.1 100.0 108.0 119.5 90.8 95.1 100.0 108.0 119.6 90.5 94.7 100.0 107.5 117.2 90.0 94.6 100.0 107.1 116.5 1980 1981 106.2 108.9 106.3 108.6 107.4 108.2 108.0 108.7 98.9 100.7 98.5 99.9 131.4 144.1 130.9 143.6 132.9 143.1 133.0 143.8 128.3 140.4 128.3 140.8 1980: m IY 105.3 107.0 105.3 107.3 106.5 107.7 107.0 108.2 98.9 99.3 98.4 99.2 133.1 136.1 132.6 135.7 134.7 137.0 134.7 136.8 129.9 132.8 129.9 132.7 1981: I 109.1 109.1 109.6 107.8 109.2 109.0 109.1 107.1 108.3 108.3 108.5 107.5 108.8 109.0 109.1 108.1 100.7 100.7 101.0 100.2 100.4 100.0 100.0 99.1 140.0 142.5 145.6 148.2 139.5 142.0 145.1 147.7 139.0 141.5 144.2 147.9 139.0 141.9 145.1 149.0 136.5 138.8 141.9 144.6 136.5 138.9 142.3 145.5 1982: I 106.3 106.4 106.0 106.0 106.3 106.1 106.8 106.7 100.0 100.3 99.2 99.3 150.9 153.4 150.4 152.6 150.9 153.0 151.6 153.7 146.0 147.7 146.6 148.2 1968 1969 76.8 79.0 76.6 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 78.4 80.7 86.1 91.8 89.9 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 n m rv n 78.8 Percent ch ange; quart erly data alj seasonally adjusted aiinual rates 2.0 3.2 3.3 .2 3.3 -.3 7.8 7.0 7.5 6.5 4.4 6.7 4.1 6.8 4.0 4.9 4.0 4.7 5 3.0 3.9 .4 -1.3 .4 3.1 4.3 .5 .8 3.6 3.5 2.6 -2.4 .3 3.3 3.7 2.4 -2.5 7.3 6.6 6.5 8.0 9.4 7.0 6.6 6.7 7.6 9.4 6.4 2.9 2.9 5.3 12.1 6.6 3.2 2.9 5.0 12.2 4.5 4.4 3.4 5.5 9.5 4.8 4.5 3.0 3.8 10.2 -2.2 6.7 6.7 5.7 2.2 -4.1 3.0 4.1 4.9 3.2 -4.1 3.4 4.4 5.0 3.5 2.2 3.3 2.4 .6 -.9 2.0 3.2 2.2 .6 -1.3 9.6 8.6 7.7 8.6 9.7 9.6 8.1 7.5 8.6 9.3 7.3 5.1 5.1 8.0 10.7 7.5 4.7 5.2 8.0 10.7 9.8 4.7 5.6 7.5 9.0 10.3 5.0 5.7 7.1 8.8 -1.5 2.5 -1.5 2.2 7 .7 7 .7 -.7 1.8 -.9 1.4 10.4 9.6 10.2 9.7 11.2 7.7 11.2 8.1 9.4 9.5 10.2 9.7 2.1 6.8 2.7 7.8 -.5 4.7 -.7 4.6 2.6 2.0 3.4 3.1 10.1 9.4 10.4 9.8 7.3 7.2 6.8 6.5 10.0 9.3 8.6 8.9 7.9 -.1 1.9 6.4 7.2 -.8 .3 -7.1 2.1 -.1 .8 -3.6 2.2 .5 .6 -3.7 5.6 .0 1.1 -2.9 4.9 -1.3 -.3 -3.5 11.7 7.5 9.0 7.4 11.8 7.1 9.0 7.3 5.7 7.5 7.8 10.6 6.6 ' 8.6 9.3 11.2 11.6 6.6 9.3 8.0 12.1 7.1 10.2 9.2 -5.5 .4 -4.2 .3 -4.5 -.8 -4.7 -.1 -1.0 1.2 .6 .5 7.3 6.9 7.7 6.0 8.4 5.6 7.1 5.5 3.8 4.7 3.3 4.4 1.7 2.6 1968 1969 5.1 2.9 5.3 2.9 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 -.8 3.0 6.6 6.6 -2.0 -1.0 2.9 6.9 6.8 -2.1 -1.6 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 -2.0 6.4 6.6 5.5 2.3 1980 1981 1980: M IY 1981: I n ffl IV 1982: I n 1 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars. Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. ^ Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed. 2 16 4 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. NOTE.—Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production fell 0.5 percent in August following a 0.1 percent rise in July and a 0.5 percent decline in June. The index for August was 10.2 percent below the year earlier level. INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967=100* TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 180 180 (RATIO SCALE) UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION 160 160 UTILITIES 140 140 \ I MINING 120 120 1978 1980 1979 1981 1982 100 1978 MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION 1979 1980 1981 1982 PERCENT* (RATIO SCALE) 100 MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE 90 140 80 120 70 1978 * SEASONALLY 1982 1982 1978 ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Seasonally adjusted] Total indiLstrial produ ction Period Index, 1967 = 100 1967 proportion 1975. 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July* Aug" 1 2 3 Industry proe uetion indexes , 1967 = 100 Percent change from year earlier 1tfanufacturini • Mining Total 87.95 100.00 117.8 130.5 138.2 146.1 152.5 147.0 151.0 153.6 151.6 149.1 146.3 143.4 140.7 142.9 141.7 140.2 139.2 138.5 138.7 138.0 -8.9 10.8 5.9 5.7 4.4 3.6 2.7 8.0 5.0 1.7 -1.9 -4.7 -7.1 -5.9 6.8 -7.7 8.8 -9.4 9.9 -10.2 116.3 130.3 138.4 146.8 153.6 146.7 150.4 153.2 151.1 148.0 145.0 142.0 138.5 140.9 140.1 138.7 137.9 137.6 137.9 137.2 Durable Utilities Nondurable 51.98 109.3 122.3 130.0 139.7 146.4 136.7 140.5 143.4 140.9 137.8 134.4 131.3 127.1 129.3 128.2 126.7 126.1 125.5 125.9 124.5 Output as percent of capacity. Annual data are averages of four monthly indexes. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Annual data are averages of quarterly data. Cap acity utilizati on rate, perc ent * Manufacturing 35.97 126.4 141.8 150.5 156.9 164.0 161.2 164.8 167.3 165.9 162.8 160.3 157.4 155.1 157.8 157.3 156.1 155.0 155.0 155.3 155.4 6.36 112.8 114.2 118.2 124.0 125.5 132.7 142.2 146.0 145.0 145.3 143.3 142.6 144.5 142.4 138.1 134.1 128.9 123.8 120.6 119.1 5.69 146.0 151.7 156.5 161.4 166.0 168.3 169.1 171.9 167.8 168.1 168.9 168.2 171.8 170.4 170.0 171.0 170.9 169.1 169.8 169.7 Materials (Federal Reserve series) 73.4 81.1 82.7 85.6 87.4 80.0 79.9 81.6 80.0 77.7 75.5 72.4 71.4 72.9 71.8 70.5 69.4 68.9 68.7 68.5 Federal Reserve series 72.9 79.5 81.9 84.4 85.7 79.1 78.5 79.6 78.3 76.6 74.8 73.1 71.1 72.2 71.6 70.8 70.2 69.9 69.9 69.4 Commerce series 2 Wharton series 3 77 81 83 84 83 78 76 84.8 87.2 89.9 91.4 85.5 85.2 76 86.2 72 81.6 78.8 72 71 Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), and Wharton School of Finance. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted] Prod ucts Intermedia te products Final Produets Period C onsumer good s Total 1967 proportion 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981: Aug Sept Get Nov Dec 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July* Aug* Total 47.82 115.7 124.4 125.1 118.2 127.6 135.9 142.2 147.2 145.3 149.5 151.5 150.0 148.9 147.2 146.3 142.8 144.1 143.3 142.6 142.2 141.9 142.0 140.6 27.68 124.4 131.5 128.9 124.0 137.1 145.3 149.1 150.8 145.4 147.9 149.6 147.8 146.5 144.0 142.0 139.6 141.8 141.5 142.1 143.6 144.6 145.7 144.0 Durable goods 7.89 133.8 146.2 135.3 121.4 141.9 154.0 159.2 155.8 136.7 140,5 142.5 140.4 136.3 129.7 123.2 120.1 125.9 128.1 130.7 132.6 135.2 137.7 132.6 Materials Equip ment Nondurable goods 19.79 120.6 125.6 126.3 125.1 135.2 141.9 145.1 148.8 148.9 150.9 152.5 150.8 150.5 149.7 149.5 147.4 148.1 146.8 146.6 147.9 148.4 148.9 148.6 Total Total Business 20.14 12.63 12.89 103.8 114.5 120.0 110.2 114.6 123.0 132.8 142.2 145.2 151.8 154.0 152.9 152.1 151.5 152.1 147.2 147.3 145.9 143.4 140.4 138.3 137.0 136.0 118.0 134.2 142.4 128.2 135.4 147.8 160.3 171.3 173.2 181.1 184.4 182.7 180.5 179.0 179.0 172.2 171.6 169.0 164.9 159.9 156.4 153.6 151.4 126.5 137.2 135.3 123.1 137.2 145.1 154.1 160.5 151.9 154.4 156.8 154.6 151.4 148.7 145.9 143.4 146.3 145.2 143.7 142.6 141.1 142.0 142.0 Construction supplies Supplementary group: Energy total 89.29 122.3 133.9 132.4 115.5 131.7 138.6 148.3 156.4 147.6 151.6 155.2 152.5 148.5 144.6 139.0 137.2 140.4 138.5 136.2 134.3 133.6 133.4 133.4 6.42 128.4 139.8 134.5 116.3 132.6 140.6 151.7 158.0 140.9 141.9 144.0 139.7 135.2 130.1 127.0 124.2 127.5 125.6 123.6 122.2 123.0 123.4 123.6 12.23 125.2 128.3 125.5 125.5 129.1 132.9 135.4 137.9 137.7 137.4 140.5 136.8 136.9 137.2 136.7 139.5 138.9 137.6 136.7 136.5 136.2 137.7 136.4 [1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted] ]Sfondurable inanufacture s Durable m inufaetures Primary metals Period Total 1967 proportion 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July* Aug*. 6.57 112.1 126.7 123.1 96.4 109.7 111.1 119.9 121.3 102.3 107.9 113.1 108.6 102.3 96.6 89.6 89.7 88.5 83.0 76.4 75.2 72.6 72.8 71.3 Iron and steel 4.21 107.1 122.3 119.8 95.8 104.8 103.8 113.2 113.2 92.4 99.8 105.1 99.2 92.2 87.2 79.2 79.6 78.5 73.0 65.1 62.4 57.9 58.0 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery 5.93 9.15 112.1 124.7 124.2 109.9 123.9 131.0 141.6 148.5 134.1 136.4 140.0 136.8 133.8 130.2 126.1 120.7 121.4 121.1 119.1 115.8 115.4 116.1 115.1 116.0 133.7 140.1 125.1 134.5 143.6 153.6 163.7 162.8 171.2 176.4 173.9 169.7 167.9 167.4 160.9 160.0 157.3 153.7 150.0 146.8 145.5 144.2 Transpcjrtation equipment Electrical machinery Total 8.05 122.2 143.1 143.8 116.5 134.8 145.4 159.4 175.0 172.8 178.4 182.6 180.0 179.6 175.7 170.7 168.2 172.9 172.6 172.2 170.9 171.3 171.7 170.7 9.27 108.2 118.3 108.7 97.4 111.1 122.2 132.5 135.4 116.9 116.1 115.4 114.2 110.6 106.1 103.7 96.6 102.0 104.4 105.9 110.0 111.6 113.1 108.3 Motor vehicles and parts Lumber and products Apparel products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products 7.74 143.6 154.5 159.4 147.2 170.9 185.7 197.4 211.8 207.1 215.6 219.2 216.3 208.8 204.6 199.8 196.7 201.3 200.3 198.6 193.6 193.2 192.4 4.50 1.64 3.31 4.72 135.8 148.8 128.2 111.1 142.0 161.1 169.9 159.9 119.0 122.3 123.1 120.4 113.8 105.5 100.4 90.4 98.6 105.6 110.7 119.8 124.0 127.4 118.0 120.8 126.0 116.2 107.6 123.2 131.2 136.3 136.9 119.3 119.1 119.1 113.2 109.6 104.7 104.8 99.2 104.9 103.5 106.2 110.6 111.7 113.0 109.4 117.3 114.3 107.6 125.7 134.2 134.2 134.4 127.0 120.4 122.6 122.5 117.8 113.8 114.1 112.7 118.2 118.2 113.3 122.5 127.6 131.5 136.9 139.6 144.2 146.1 145.9 145.6 143.4 145.3 145.6 146.4 145.9 144.2 143.8 141.2 141.9 142.2 Foods 8.75 116.8 120.9 124.0 123.4 133.0 138.8 142.7 147.5 149.6 152.1 151.9 150.7 151.4 153.0 152.8 151.1 151.7 150.8 149.7 150.5 151.0 NEW CONSTRUCTION Constraction contracts 2 Private Period T« ;al new con itruetion exp* nditures Besiclential Total Commercial and industrial New housing units Total 1 Federal, State, and local Other Total value index (1977 = 100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) E•illions of dollars 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 135.9 151.1 173.8 205.6 230.4 230.7 238.2 95.1 112.0 135.7 159.7 181.6 175.7 185.2 46.5 60.5 81.0 93.4 99.0 87.3 86.6 34.4 47.3 65.7 75.8 78.6 63.1 62.7 20.8 19.9 22.5 29.6 39.9 43.8 51.3 27.8 31.5 32.2 36.7 42.7 44.7 47.4 40.9 39.1 38.2 45.9 48.8 55.1 53.0 66.0 79.0 100.0 114.0 121.0 106.0 107.0 Seasonally adjusted Seasonal ly adjusted annu al rates 555 592 739 977 1,059 904 906 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1981: July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 238.1 235.9 233.5 230.8 230.0 228.8 186.9 185.2 182.4 180.0 178.1 176.6 87.0 84.1 80.4 78.2 76.2 75.8 64.1 60.8 57.1 53.4 50.4 49.4 52.0 53.0 53.4 53.2 54.0 53.0 47.9 48.2 48.6 48.6 47.9 47.7 51.2 50.7 51.1 50.8 51.9 52.2 99 99 100 101 92 112 882 944 817 891 849 848 1982: 225.1 222.6 224.6 226.2 227.7 230.2 228.5 175.5 173.0 173.6 175.3 179.3 181.6 179.7 73.7 69.2 70.0 72.4 75.6 75.4 76.7 51.0 49.2 51.0 49.6 51.0 49.8 51.8 53.3 54.1 55.0 54.3 53.9 56.5 54.0 48.5 49.8 48.6 48.6 49.7 49.7 49.0 49.6 49.6 51.0 50.9 48.5 48.7 48.8 118 97 105 88 94 111 98 112 675 781 758 688 620 816 677 733 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July p Aug p 1 Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. 2 P. W. Dodge series. Eelates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971 for floor space. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New prirv ate homes New private housing units Units started, b)r type of structure Period 1 unit Total 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1,337.7 1,160.4 1,537.5 1,987.1 2,020.3 1,745.1 1,292.2 1,084.2 888.1 892.2 1,162.4 1,450.9 1,433.3 1,194.1 852.2 705.4 2-4 units 68.1 64.0 85.9 121.7 125.0 122.0 109.5 91.1 5 or more units 381.6 204.3 289.2 414.4 462.0 429.0 330.5 287.7 Units authorized 1,074.4 939.2 1,296.2 1,690.0 1,800.5 1,551.8 1,190.6 985.5 Units completed 1,728.5 1,317.2 1,377.2 1,657.1 1,867.5 1,870.8 1,501.6 1,265.7 Homes sold 346 313 353 519 549 646 819 817 709 545 436 Vacancy rate Homes for sale at end of period 1 3 402 414 398 336 272 housing units (percent) 2 6.2 6.0 5.6 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.0 Seasonal iy adjusted annu al rates 1981: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June p July P. Aug p 946 899 854 860 882 885 945 931 882 1,066 908 1,195 1,002 614 623 507 554 550 592 568 621 566 631 621 625 610 76 62 78 81 74 70 84 67 64 86 83 104 102 256 214 269 225 258 223 293 243 252 349 204 466 290 1 Seasonally adjusted. 2 Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable with earlier data. 3 New series beginning March 1979. 878 835 738 743 797 803 792 851 879 944 929 1,062 886 1,233 1,202 1,265 1,067 1,114 1,063 920 926 962 1,138 935 991 364 335 359 388 456 399 376 380 335 395 372 352 359 308 304 1 291 282 272 275 274 269 264 259 253 250 247 5.0 5.0 5.3 5.1 NOTE.—Units authorized beginning 1978 relate to 16,000 permit-issuing places; data for 1973-77 are for 14,000 places. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Total and Trade Business sales fell slightly in July and inventories rose slightly. According to the advance survey, retail sales fell 0.9 percent in August following a rise of 1.2 percent in July. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 140 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 600 130 550 120 500 110 450 100 400 ^ *~*~V 350 RETAIL SALES 300 TOTAL BUSINESS SALES *•*" 250 50 200 40 I i i i i i 1 1 i i 1 1 | i i | i l ) i l 1 1 l l 1 1 i I i l i 1 1 i l l i i I i i i i i i i i i i 1 1 ii i i 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 RATIO* 1.80 1.70 - 150 100 1980 1979 1978 1981 1982 1982 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Total biisiness * COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Inventory-5 ales ratio 4 He tail Who!esale Inventories 3 Sales 2 Period Sales 2 tories 3 Sales 2 tories 3 Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores business * Retail Millions of dollars, seasonally iidjusted 285,807 47,748 204,277 229,623 259,046 294,573 321,504 350,622 288,375 318,544 351,176 397,090 444,132 482,570 520,024 46,623 50,694 55,987 65,036 76,109 87,931 97,839 56,948 56,697 64,078 72,311 83,891 93,870 104,441 111,179 45,082 49,012 54,781 60,435 67,057 74,529 79,325 86,566 14,118 15,247 18,150 20,724 23,313 25,401 24,716 27,216 33,765 36,631 39,711 43,744 49,128 54,609 59,350 1981: July Aug Sept Get Nov Dec 355,070 354,594 353,419 346,619 344,913 341,106 504,744 509,959 515,387 518,458 521,644 520,024 97,445 97,359 97,440 96,249 96,738 94,920 105,768 107,516 108,802 108,708 110,243 111,179 87,292 87,961 87,823 86,413 86,733 86,572 27,759 28,098 27,810 26,354 26,436 26,206 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June 334,710 341,415 342,339 339,385 349,283 345,555 344,263 516,439 513,797 512,766 514,883 510,356 512,752 513,174 94,367 95,854 97,580 94,977 97,614 95,994 93,792 111,154 108,714 109,369 112,722 111,540 113,286 113,259 85,320 87,418 87,242 88,294 90,841 88,042 89,089 88,292 25,316 26,696 26,958 27,984 29,416 27,175 27,324 26,361 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 177,625 182,230 July pp. Aug *The term "business" also includes manufacturing (see page 21). Monthly average for year and total for month. Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly 71,067 71,744 .45 .57 1.48 1.44 .48 .46 .44 .43 .45 .43 1.38 1.40 1.43 1.44 1.41 1.39 64,128 64,796 65,615 66,350 66,711 66,858 .42 .44 .46 1.50 1.51 1.52 1.40 1.40 1.42 1.45 1.45 1.45 66,324 66,438 66,529 66,512 66,383 67,005 66,719 1.54 1.50 1.50 1.52 1.46 1.48 1.49 1.45 1.41 1.41 1.40 1.35 1.41 1.40 32,861 38,206 79,273 89,530 102,520 109,228 114,114 125,693 33,356 37,841 43,135 49,914 53,265 53,747 58,835 38,388 41,432 46,395 52,606 55,963 60,367 66,858 59,533 59,863 60,013 60,059 60,297 60,366 121,993 123,341 124,376 125,364 125,618 125,693 57,865 58,545 58,761 59,014 58,907 58,835 60,004 60,722 60,284 60,310 61,425 60,867 61,765 61,931 124,131 123,395 123,332 123,175 122,367 124,351 125,001 57,807 56,957 56,803 56,663 55,984 57,346 58,282 30,964 data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month. 2 3 20 Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In July, manufacturers1 shipments and inventories were about unchanged, new orders rose, and unfilled orders fell. In August, according to advance estimates, durable goods shipments and new orders fell. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 320 280 -INVENTORIES— BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) ~ 240 DURABLE GOODS NONDURABLE GOODS 40 60 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 200 RATIO* 2.2 INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1978 1979 1978 1982 1980 * SEASON ALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1981 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufa cturers' shipiBents 1 I tanufacturers ' new orders i Manufa cturers' inveritories 2 Durabl 3 goods Period Total Durable goods 1982 Nondurable goods Durable goods Total Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, nondefense Nondurable goods 11,011 12,799 15,276 19,444 23,203 23,449 43,130 48,145 53,951 59,254 67,960 76,678 82,743 84,507 83,979 83,272 82,365 80,868 80,239 79,458 79,676 79,339 78,803 81,081 82,508 82,142 Manufacturers' unfilled orders 3 Manufacturers' inventory— shipments ratio 4 173,829 182,499 1.84 1.69 204,880 261,941 303,178 320,977 318,621 328,861 328,384 327,955 323,556 321,574 318,621 318,114 315,957 315,639 314,521 310,482 306,032 303,235 1.61 1.57 1.57 1.66 1.66 1.63 1.65 1.68 1.73 1.77 1.77 1.81 1.78 1.78 1.79 1.72 1.70 1.70 Millions of do liars, seasoilally adjust*3d 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981: July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1982: Jan Peb Mar Apr May June July p Aug 1 2 3 86,595 43,656 98,802 113,201 126,953 143,935 154,249 166,217 170,333 169,274 168,156 163,957 161,442 159,614 155,023 158,142 157,517 156,114 160,828 161,519 161,382 50,689 59,267 67,848 76,060 77,540 83,417 85,739 85,223 84,671 81,265 80,279 79,133 75,551 77,976 78,124 77,136 79,518 78,888 79,036 76,840 42,939 48,113 53,934 59,104 67,875 76,708 82,800 84,594 84,051 83,485 82,692 81,163 80,481 79,472 80,167 79,394 78,978 81,310 82,631 82,346 159,934 175,193 189,334 210,679 241,034 264,016 283,152 276,983 279,102 282,209 284,386 285,784 283,152 281,155 281,688 280,065 278,985 276,449 275,115 274,914 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales. Book value, end of period. End of period. 102,874 112,581 121,737 138,045 160,601 174,674 188,429 183,229 185,022 187,686 189,461 190,222 188,429 187,054 187,121 186,063 185,916 184,870 184,289 183,798 57,060 62,612 67,598 72,634 80,433 89,341 94,723 93,754 94,080 94,523 94,925 95,561 94,723 94,100 94,567 94,002 93,070 91,579 90,826 91,116 85,149 99,543 115,027 131,664 147,354 155,738 166,015 172,089 168,797 167,728 159,558 159,460 156,660 154,519 155,984 157,198 154,995 156,791 157,058 158,588 42,019 51,398 61,076 72,410 79,394 79,060 83,272 87,582 84,819 84,456 77,193 78,592 76,421 75,061 76,309 77,859 76,194 75,710 74,550 76,446 73,425 24,061 24,655 24,867 24,312 22,528 24,369 22,130 21,717 21,560 22,174 22,608 20,332 19,278 20,322 19,461 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In August, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.6 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished consumer foods rose 0.1 percent, and prices of other finished consumer goods increased 0.8 percent. Prices of capital equipment rose 0.7 percent from their July level. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 160 140 140 i i i i iIi i i i i 120 i i i i i I i i i i i I 120 1982 SOURCE: D1PARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Fin ished goods Period Total finished goods Consumer foods Fiwished go >ds excluding consumer foo Is Total Durable 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 147.5 163.4 170.6 181.7 195.9 217.7 247.0 269.8 166.9 181.0 180.4 189.9 207.2 226.2 239.5 253.6 139.3 156.2 166.1 177.7 190.7 213.3 247.8 273.3 138.6 153.1 162.6 174.3 186.7 211.5 250.8 276.5 125.9 138.2 144.5 152.8 166.9 183.2 206.2 218.6 1981: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 272.1 272.6 274.2 275.5 276.3 256.8 255.5 255.0 253.2 253.0 275.2 276.4 278.6 280.9 281.9 277.9 279.3 281.4 283.8 284.6 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May... June July Aug 277.8 277.3 276.9 277.1 276.8 279.7 281.3 283.0 255.9 257.1 256.8 261.1 262.7 263.9 260.0 260.3 283.0 282.0 281.6 280.5 279.6 283.0 286.4 288.5 285.6 284.7 283.6 281.7 280.1 283.9 288.1 290.3 1 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. 22 Nondurable 146.8 163.0 Capital equipment Cnade mater]als Total Foods and feeds * Other Total Foodstuffs and feedstuffs Other Total a £ • r Consumer gc>ods Total NOTE.—Data revised for April 1982. Internlediate ma terials 174.8 189.3 200.0 231.3 283.9 319.6 141.0 162.5 173.4 184.6 199.2 216.5 239.8 264.3 149.3 163.6 169.7 180.7 194.9 217.9 248.9 271.3 162.9 180.0 189.1 201.5 215.6 242.2 280.3 306.0 200.2 195.3 185.3 190.5 203.1 226.1 252.6 250.3 159.5 178.6 189.4 202.3 216.5 244.4 282.3 310.1 196.1 196.9 202.7 209.2 234.4 274.3 304.6 329.0 189.4 191.8 190.2 192.1 216.2 247.9 259.2 257.4 208.9 206.9 228.5 245.0 272.3 330.0 401.0 482.3 219.6 219.5 222.5 224.5 224.7 321.5 323.9 325.3 328.0 329.3 267.4 267.8 270.5 272.5 274.1 273.3 273.9 275.2 276.3 276.9 309.7 309.8 309.7 310.6 311.1 251.4 242.5 238.3 233.6 233.2 314.1 314.8 315.1 316.3 316.9 334.4 328.4 322.7 318.1 313.6 261.9 252.0 246.1 240.8 234.1 489.7 492.2 486.9 483.9 484.6 224.4 223.1 224.3 223.7 224.3 226.9 227.5 229.1 331.3 330.6 327.8 325.0 321.8 326.5 333.4 336.0 275.4 274.3 275.7 276.5 277.7 279.9 281.2 283.1 278.5 278.2 277.3 277.3 276.6 279.7 281.3 283.0 312.0 311.1 310.1 308.3 308.8 309.7 311.0 310.7 237.8 238.9 237.4 243.4 247.3 247.0 244.1 241.8 317.6 316.5 315.5 313.1 313.4 314.4 316.0 315.8 319.3 317.3 314.7 320.1 327.3 327.0 323.7 321.9 244.5 246.1 246.7 255.4 262.2 260.5 253.4 250.8 480.3 470.6 461.2 459.8 468.0 470.7 475.4 475.0 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES In August, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.3 percent, seasonally adjusted (0.2 percent unadjusted). Food and beverages prices fell 0.3 percent, seasonally adjusted, and energy prices were unchanged, unadjusted. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 320 320 UNADJUSTED 300 300 280 280 260 260 240 240 220 220 200 ALL ITEMS 160 160 140 120 120 1974 1975 1979 1978 1976 1980 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1981 1982 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Transportatic n Housing Period All items 1 Food and beverages Total 1 NSA Rel imp.B. 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug 1 Home purchase NSA 100.0 17.5 147.7 161.2 170.5 181.5 195.4 217.4 246.8 272.4 276.5 279.3 279.9 280.7 281.5 282.5 283.4 283.1 284.3 287.1 290.6 292.2 292.8 158.7 172.1 177.4 188.0 206.3 228.5 248.0 267.3 269.1 270.9 271.5 271.9 272.1 274.1 275.8 274.9 275.7 277.8 279.6 279.5 278.8 46.0 148.8 164.5 174.6 186.5 202.8 227.6 263.3 293.5 299.3 303.2 303.3 304.8 305.9 306.7 307.9 306.9 309.5 313.7 316.8 318.4 319.7 Home financing, taxes, and insurance NSA 9.6 12.9 142.7 160.3 168.4 179.5 196.7 223.1 254.3 267.7 272.6 274.5 272.5 270.2 270.5 269.3 270.4 269.2 272.3 279.3 285.6 287.7 287.9 181.1 201.9 212.8 227.2 257.8 308.9 396.0 472.5 488.3 501.8 501.8 505.6 506.3 506.0 507.2 500.9 508.4 516.2 521.8 524.3 527.3 Apparel and upkeep Includes items not shown separately. Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981. Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant, etc. 4 Estimated series. Finance includes financing, taxes, and insurance. 5 An experimental measure using a rental equivalence approach for homeownership costs. Effective with data for January 1983, the consumer price index for all urban consumers will incorporate a rental equivalence measure. 2 3 Total ' New cars Motor fuel 2 Medical care Ener3 gy NSA 19.3 137.7 150.6 165.5 177.2 185.5 212.0 249.7 280.0 281.4 284.6 288.2 290.8 292.5 291.9 289.9 287.1 282.6 283.8 289.7 293.1 293.9 4.6 136.2 142.3 147.6 154.2 159.6 166.6 178.4 186.9 188.4 189.0 189.5 189.3 189.4 189.3 190.1 190.9 191.1 191.0 191.2 192.1 192.8 3.5 117.5 127.6 135.7 142.9 153.8 166.0 179.3 190.2 192.8 193.7 194.0 194.6 196.1 196.0 194.5 194.6 196.0 196.5 197.9 198.8 199.7 6.0 159.9 170.8 177.9 188.2 196.3 265.6 369.1 410.9 404.7 408.3 414.6 418.1 420.3 413.1 403.6 387.6 361.8 365.1 384.7 392.0 391.7 4.9 150.5 168.6 184.7 202.4 219.4 239.7 265.9 294.5 299.4 302.0 305.0 308.3 310.5 312.9 315.0 318.1 321.3 324.2 327.1 330.5 333.4 11.1 159.7 176.6 189.3 207.3 220.4 275.9 361.1 410.0 416.1 417.1 414.9 414.1 414.6 416.4 413.0 406.1 395.7 402.1 418.6 424.5 424.5 All items less food, energy, and home purchase and finance4 49.8 138.5 150.5 160.8 170.6 180.9 194.1 211.6 231.6 234.4 236.5 238.3 239.8 241.4 242.5 243.4 244.6 246.1 247.0 248.7 250.3 251.3 All items X-l 5 NSA 142.9 154.7 163.5 173.9 185.8 203.6 226.4 248.0 250.8 252.8 253.9 254.9 255.8 257.2 258.0 258.4 258.8 260.6 263.2 265.0 265.5 6 Eelative importance, December 1981. NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS Percen change froin 3 months earlier; seas onally adjus ted annual r ites Percenl change froin preceding period; seasonally adjusted * Period Consumejr goods Total finished 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981: , 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug 1 7.4 20.5 5.3 22.6 6.6 3.7 6.9 9.2 5.5 2.5 6.9 6.7 6.0 6.7 8.5 8.2 6.4 7.3 7.9 8.8 7.4 7.5 1.4 .1 -.5 -.2 -.7 :... 7.1 .3 .2 .6 .5 .3 .5 -.2 -.1 .1 17.5 14.2 1.1 .5 j 1.7 .6 .5 i 1.0 .6 .6 -1.5 .1 finished Foods goods Excluding foods Capital equipment 11.4 9.2 8.5 .2 .5 .8 .9 .3 .4 -.3 -.4 -.7 -.6 1.4 1.5 .8 __.! Consun*3r goods Total Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods goods 22.5 13.0 11.7 Consume?r goods Total finished 11.8 18.3 12.8 11.8 Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Excluding foods Foods goods Capital equipment Percenl change froin 6 months earlier; seas onally adjus ted annual r ates .7 .1 1.0 .7 .6 5.0 3.4 4.3 5.1 5.5 .5 -.4 .5 .3 .4 .8 .5 .7 5.4 3.4 3.2 5.9 8.8 7.8 5.6 1.6 -2.5 -5.5 -3.9 1.4 6.3 6.1 8.4 9.0 2.6 .9 -1.0 -.7 4.1 6.2 9.3 8.5 5.7 7.6 7.8 9.7 7.4 2.7 2.4 1.6 5.1 6.2 7.0 8.0 6.1 1.3 -1.4 -5.4 -6.3 .4 9.4 11.5 -1.7 -3.6 15.4 7.2 5.2 7.3 9.1 5.3 4.5 5.0 4.5 4.8 3.9 3.2 2.1 .9 2.5 2.5 4.2 2.6 1.8 _.l 5.4 4.3 6.0 5.5 6.0 5.0 3.1 .2 7.8 8.1 8.2 7.7 -1.2 -.5 .2 1.0 4.8 7.6 8.8 3.2 2.5 -2.6 -.5 1.8 4.0 7.5 5.2 6.0 4.5 3.9 4.3 4.3 6.5 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted), NOTE.—Based on revised data for April 1982. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted * Tra nsportaticm Housing Home Period All items 2 Food and beverages financ- Total 2 Home purchase NSA 12.2 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981: 7.0 4.8 6.8 9.0 Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec..... 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug 1 12.0 6.2 .8 7.6 13.4 7.5 5.4 7.6 9.9 13.3 12.4 11.6 10.0 10.1 8.9 4.3 15.2 13.7 10.2 .8 1.1 .4 .5 .4 .5 .7 .2 .1 .1 1.0 1.3 .0 .5 .4 .3 .2 .3 .2 1.0 1.0 .6 .3 .7 .6 -.3 .3 .8 .6 -.0 -.3 .3 .4 _t3 .8 1.4 1.0 .5 .4 ing, taxes, and insurance Apparel and upkeep Total * 11.5 11.2 14.7 27.5 23.3 17.9 9.8 8.8 4.3 7.7 7.3 4.8 7.2 6.2 7.4 7.5 6.8 -.8 .1 1.7 2.8 0 .8 .1 .7 .3 .3 __1 .1 — .4 — .1 — .1 .4 -.4 1.2 2.6 2.3 .7 .1 .2 .4 .4 .1 _.l .1 .5 .4 .6 1.1 1.3 .9 .6 -.2 -.7 11.2 15.8 11.4 1.2 .4 .7 — .7 14.6 7.6 1.6 -1.2 1.5 1.5 1.1 .5 .6 3 4 24 Energy4 All items X-l 6 s NSA 13.3 4.3 8.4 Medical care NSA 8.7 2.3 4.5 4.2 3.2 5.5 6.8 3.6 10.1 10.0 Motor fuel 3 E Annual changes are from December to December, not seasonally adjusted. Includes items not shown separately. Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981. Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant, etc. 5 Estimated series. Finance includes financing, taxes, and insurance. 6 An experimental measure using a rental equivalence approach for homownership costs. Effective with data for January 1983, the consumer price index for all urban consumers will incorporate a 2 New cars All items less food, energy, and home purchase 18.2 14.7 11.0 -1.0 -1.6 .4 2.1 1.2 .3 0 .5 .2 .3 .8 -.1 -.8 .1 .7 .3 .7 .5 .5 20.6 11.0 12.4 2.6 4.9 10.1 21.6 11.6 11.1 6.3 8.8 8.8 6.9 7.2 8.0 9.4 10.1 10.0 12.5 37.4 18.1 11.9 6.8 5.5 6.9 7.5 9.9 9.4 .1 .9 1.5 .8 .5 1.2 .9 1.0 1.1 .7 .1 .2 8.5 52.2 18.9 -1.7 -2.3 -4.0 -6.7 .9 5.4 1.9 -.1 9.9 .8 .7 1.0 1.0 .9 .9 1.0 .9 — .5 _.2 .1 .4 — .g -1.7 -2.6 1.6 4.1 1.4 0 .8 .9 .8 .6 .7 .5 .4 .5 .6 .4 .7 .6 .4 11.1 6.6 5.1 6.3 7.9 10.8 10.8 8.5 .9 .7 .6 .6 .5 .4 .1 .2 -.2 .6 1.0 .8 .3 Addeiidum: All item 3 percent change (annual ra te) From 3 months earlier From 6 months earlier 11.3 12.8 9.7 8.4 9.3 10.4 10.5 5.4 4.8 3.7 1.0 .8 3.7 9.3 10.8 7.9 9.8 9.1 7.2 6.0 3.2 2.8 3.7 5.1 5.7 5.8 rental equivalence measure. NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. beginning January 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earnand clerical workers. JData ers Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers rose 2.3 percent in September and prices paid by farmers were unchanged in the month ended September 15. INDEX, 1977=100 INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SCALE) (RATIO SCALE) 180 160 140 120 100 60 I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I 1977 Ii i i i i Ii i i i i Ii i i i i I i i i i | I i i i i i I i i i i 1981 1978 1982 / RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE ADVISERS [1977 = 100] Pri ces received by Period All farm products Livestock and products Crops Batio 2 Production items 83 91 97 134 100 124 147 144 143 100 109 125 139 150 100 108 125 138 148 130 113 107 100 106 107 97 92 138 133 130 130 128 130 120 120 121 122 146 145 140 138 133 151 151 150 150 150 150 150 149 149 148 148 148 147 147 145 91 88 87 87 85 132 133 133 135 139 137 136 133 136 126 123 120 123 125 125 124 119 125 137 142 145 147 151 149 148 147 147 154 154 155 155 155 156 156 156 156 153 153 154 154 155 155 155 154 154 148 151 150 150 150 151 151 151 150 86 86 86 87 90 88 87 85 87 117 105 102 100 105 116 125 1981: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Includes items not shown separately. Percentage ratio of index of prices received by fanners to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. paid by fanner s Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates 81 89 95 105 101 102 100 115 132 134 138 1 All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates * 89 95 100 108 123 138 150 1974. 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 2 I'rices farm ers 94 98 101 81 NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1977 = 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS Ml rose in August for the first time since April, while growth in the broader aggregates continued to accelerate. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIOSCALE) 2,600 2,400 2,200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 2,000 1,800 1,800 1,600 -M3- 1,600 1,400 —r AA2 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 600 400 400 Ij ii i Li i i i i i I II Ii 200 1974 1975 1977 1976 1979 1978 i i t i l | i II i 1981 1980 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL 200 1982 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period 1974: 1975: 1976: 1977: 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: 1981: Dec Dec Dec Dec. Dec Dec Dec Dec Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug p Ml M2 M3 L Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OCD) » Ml plus overnight RPs and Eurodollars, MMMF balances (general purpose and broker /dealer), and savings and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, term BPs, and institution-only MMMF balances M3 plus other liquid assets 277.4 291.0 310.4 335.5 363.2 389.0 414.5 440.9 431.1 431.2 432.9 436.4 440.9 448.6 447.3 448.3 452.4 451.5 451.4 451.3 455.2 911.2 1,026.9 1,171.2 1,297.7 1,403.9 1,518.9 1,656.2 1,822.7 1,772.4 1,778.3 1,789.5 1,809.9 1,822.7 1,841.3 1,848.0 1,865.2 1,880.7 1,897.5 1,907.9 1,923.4 1,946.2 1 Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at an annual rate. 26 1,064.3 1,166.2 1,305.0 1,464.6 1,629.0 1,779.4 1,963.1 2,188.1 2,126.0 2,138.1 2,151.1 2,174.7 2,188.1 2,204.3 2,215.0 2,235.8 2,258.1 2,279.3 2,296.0 2,320.2 2,355.7 Percent <change from ,year or 6 m onths earlier 1,249.8 1,376.6 1,531.4 1,724.3 1,938.9 2,153.9 2,370.4 2,642.8 2,559.7 2,577.2 2,600.0 2,629.3 2,642.8 2,667.8 2,690.2 2,716.6 2,743.5 2,773.2 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Ml 4.4 4.9 6.7 8.1 8.3 7.1 6.6 6.4 5.7 3.2 -.2 3.4 5.9 9.1 7.7 8.1 9.2 7.0 4.8 1.2 3.6 M2 5.6 12.7 14.1 10.8 8.2 8.2 9.0 10.1 11.5 9.3 7.8 9.1 9.6 10.2 8.7 10.0 10.5 9.9 9.6 9.1 10.9 M3 8.4 9.6 11.9 12.2 11.2 9.2 10.3 11.5 12.8 11.6 10.5 10.9 10.4 9.9 8.5 9.3 10.2 9.9 10.1 10.8 13.1 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Money market mutua Ifund bala nces Overnight repur- Other Perinrl Currency Demand deposits 1 Dec: 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 73.8 80.6 88.6 97.4 106.1 116.2 123.1 207.4 214.1 224.4 239.6 253.9 262.2 267.2 236.4 1981: Aug Sept Get Nov Dec 120.7 121.1 121.3 121.8 123.1 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July p Aug * 123.8 124.6 125.1 126.3 127.4 128.4 128.8 129.5 67.8 checkable deposits (OCD) agreements (RPs), net, plus overnight Eurodollars General purpose and broker/ dealer Institution only NSA NSA NSA Savings deposits Small denomination time deposits 2 16.9 26.9 77.0 7.2 7.5 13.7 18.8 24.1 26.3 35.0 38.1 2.1 3.2 2.8 2.9 7.1 34.4 61.9 151.2 0.2 .4 .6 .9 3.1 9.3 13.9 33.7 337.6 387.7 451.7 490.4 479.9 421.7 398.9 343.6 396.5 454.1 533.9 652.6 751.7 854.7 236.6 234.7 235.7 235.7 236.4 69.5 71.2 71.6 74.7 77.0 43.1 39.6 36.1 36.9 38.1 122.2 130.6 137.3 144.9 151.2 23.3 26.6 29.4 32.0 33.7 350.9 343.1 339.6 340.9 343.6 239.3 234.5 233.0 233.0 232.7 231.0 230.6 231.1 81.1 83.8 85.8 88.6 87.0 87.5 87.4 90.2 43.2 42.9 43.0 40.4 42.8 43.0 43.5 44.7 154.9 156.0 159.2 161.9 164.3 168.6 171.3 180.0 32.5 30.5 31.5 31.5 32.8 33.7 36.7 43.1 348.8 348.6 350.7 350.5 350.9 349.9 344.0 342.1 0.4 .9 2.7 4.2 8.4 1 Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions. 2 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. Large denomination time deposits 2 Term repurchase agreements (RPs) Term Eurodollars (net) NSA NSA Qav ings bonds Shortterm Treasury securities Bankers' acceptances C nm paper 300.3 8.4 9.0 15.0 21.0 27.5 30.2 37.8 35.4 8.0 9.7 13.1 18.7 29.9 42.9 48.4 66.7 63.2 67.2 71.7 76.4 80.3 79.6 72.3 67.7 53.6 77.1 81.1 89.9 99.3 128.5 156.7 176.5 8.4 8.8 11.8 2L4 26.5 31.8 39.7 51.7 62.9 79.2 97.0 98.1 104.2 830.8 839.7 849.8 856.8 854.7 299.8 302.3 302.2 300.6 300.3 33.4 33.8 33.4 35.6 35.4 61.0 61.2 63.4 65.5 66.7 68.9 68.4 67.9 67.7 67.7 164.1 168.1 176.0 179.9 176.5 37.3 37.6 37.1 38.1 39.7 102.4 103.8 104.4 103.7 104.2 852.3 859.4 869.9 881.6 894.1 900.9 919.7 930.2 302.6 308.0 312.6 317.2 321.6 328.3 335.8 339.4 32.5 32.5 31.5 34.2 32.6 31.2 29.4 32.4 69.9 73.8 74.1 78.2 82.5 67.8 67.8 67.7 67.7 67.7 180.3 186.4 191.0 191.7 191.9 40.2 39.1 37.9 38.3 39.9 105.4 108.2 110.1 109.6 111.9 290.0 340.9 144.4 129.8 118.2 145.2 194.6 221.8 257.9 10.6 50.1 48.0 NOTE.—See p. 26 for overall measures. NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Insta llment credit ext€ nded Period Total l Automobile Revolving Total ' Automobile Revolving 46,019 31,243 9,489 75,641 87,981 93,901 83,454 94,404 35,616 41,764 81,348 96,090 111,546 126,653 135,438 7,408 21,561 35,462 43,079 38,381 1,448 19,894 10,465 15,204 18,736 14,715 477 9,595 9,035 8,628 1,415 4,697 28,290 28,323 29,406 26,836 27,370 26,656 8,059 8,396 9,000 7,490 8,073 7,352 11,706 11,663 12,263 11,753 11,379 11,592 26,739 25,895 26,431 25,834 26,770 26,689 7,003 6,537 6,921 6,466 7,509 7,284 11,590 11,486 11,692 11,429 11,358 11,533 1,551 2,428 2,975 1,002 600 -33 1,056 1,859 2,079 1,024 564 68 116 177 571 324 21 59 26,888 27,150 27,462 28,684 29,197 29,737 27,514 7,474 7,283 7,183 7,871 8,429 8,182 7,332 11,070 11,730 12,143 12,416 12,528 13,361 12,551 26,445 27,075 26,472 27,509 27,798 28,388 26,944 7,595 7,339 7,211 7,638 7,470 7,527 7,271 11,266 11,885 11,836 11,917 11,991 12,854 11,939 443 75 990 1,175 1,399 1,349 570 -121 -56 -28 233 959 655 61 -196 -155 307 499 537 507 612 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Includes "mobile home" and "other," not shown separately. Automobile 49,444 53,278 60,437 69,245 79,186 82,977 84,809 1981: July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1 Total 163,276 172,675 189,179 222,138 254,589 286,396 304,628 316,447 46,514 52,420 63,743 1978 1979 1980 1981 Revolving 33,213 36,956 43,934 87,596 105,125 120,174 128,068 140,135 172,765 180,083 210,740 257,600 297,668 324,777 306,076 336,341 1974 1975 1976 1977 Net charige in amount ou standing Insta Iment credit liqui dated l 495 2,976 1,970 1,340 2,170 6,248 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES Growth in commercial bank loans and investments continued to decelerate in August. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 1,800 1,600 ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 600 LOANS AND LEASES 400 400 INVESTMENT IN OTHER SECURITIES -V 200 180 160 140 200 180 160 140 ,.„,......«»"" 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 1974 1975 1976 1980 1977 1982 1981 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, AVERAGES OF WEDNESDAY FIGURES SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Depo dtory instituticm s 3 Al1 commercial bank s 1 Period Total loans and investments Loans and leases Total 2 Commercial and industrial loans U.S. Treasury securities 82.2 100.8 99.8 93.8 Total Seasonal 94.5 110.0 111.0 558 874 1,473 1,617 636 13 12 54 134 82 116 53 356.6 360.6 363.7 363.4 358.0 115.6 113.2 112.5 110.3 111.0 223.8 225.6 228.7 231.2 231.4 37.34 37.72 37.60 37.62 37.99 35.92 36.27 36.42 36.95 37.35 37.05 37.31 37.33 37.27 37.67 1,417 1,451 1,179 661 636 220 222 152 79 53 360.3 365.5 370.0 373.1 378.8 383.4 386.7 387.8 114.1 115.1 114.4 116.6 116.3 115.8 116.5 117.8 231.5 232.0 233.1 234.0 234.9 235.8 235.9 237.1 38.71 38.26 38.36 38.43 38.50 38.58 38.52 38.80 37.20 36.47 36.80 36.87 37.39 37.37 37.83 38.29 38.30 37.96 37.99 38.16 38.15 38.27 38.21 38.49 1,526 1,713 1,611 1,581 1,105 1,205 669 510 75 132 174 167 237 239 225 119 915.1 973.9 1981: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1,312.2 1,317.8 1,324.0 1,327.5 1,316.3 972.7 979.0 982.8 986.1 973.9 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July* Aug" 1,320.0 1,332.4 1,342.5 1,352.6 1,361.9 1,368.7 1,376.1 1,383.2 974.5 985.2 995.0 1,002.0 1,010.7 1,017.1 1,023.7 1,028.4 1 Data are averages of Wednesday figures. Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States. Data are averages of daily figures. NOTE.—Beginning Dec. 1981, banks loans and investments and reserves aggregates have been Kequired 29.02 29.59 30.98 32.59 33.93 35.95 37.67 189.6 190.9 210.9 245.9 291.2 326.8 358.0 28 Nonborrowed 29.81 30.60 31.95 32.79 34.77 37.35 517.4 555.0 632.5 747.0 849.9 3 Total 29.29 29.86 31.17 32.82 34.26 36.46 37.99 745.2 804.6 891.5 1,013.5 1,135.9 1,239.6 1,316.3 2 Other securities Bornjwings (millions of dollars, una<l usted) 145.6 148.8 159.3 172.8 191.5 214.4 231.4 Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 1975: 1976: 1977: 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: Eeserves adjust 3d for changes in re serve requiresnents Investinents 29.16 127 62 reduced because of shifts from U.S. banking offices to International Banking Facilities (IBFs). Reserves adjusted for changes in reserve requirements revised beginning 1959. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Uses Sources External Period Total Ci edit market funds Internal * Total Total 165.8 208.7 202.9 167.9 223.4 252.3 315.4 346.3 333.7 352.2 333.7 381.2 348.9 345.0 296.7 331.1 1972 1973... 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981: I n ra IY 1982: I p n 85.0 91.7 85.6 119.7 134.2 157.4 175.7 188.8 197.5 231.1 222.4 225.4 235.2 241.4 232.6 233.6 80.8 117.0 117.3 48.3 89.2 94.9 139.7 157.5 136.2 121.1 111.3 155.8 113.7 103.6 64.1 97.5 Securities and mortgages Loans and short-term paper 40.7 16.9 36.0 43.6 57.6 72.9 36.9 39.1 49.7 48.0 33.9 31.9 25.9 57.5 23.0 41.6 34.8 3.2 12.6 28.3 36.1 82.8 41.7 64.3 70.4 79.3 91.2 95.7 92.6 68.7 119.1 100.2 82.5 109.4 102.2 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained abroad. 2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. -8.0 16.3 36.5 47.4 65.3 38.2 69.6 27.1 84.3 97.0 69.9 81.1 66.1 Total Other 2 23.2 44.0 34.5 6.5 24.9 24.5 60.4 66.3 40.6 28.4 42.6 36.8 13.5 21.0 45.2 -4.7 149.1 191.9 190.1 150.9 201.4 237.6 294.2 347.1 325.6 318.1 331.4 352.2 304.6 284.0 224.1 259.9 Capital expenditures 3 99.0 121.5 137.9 109.7 148.3 175.1 202.2 219.8 220.5 260.9 233.5 260.0 284.6 265.5 240.7 247.8 Increase in financial assets 50.1 70.5 52.2 41.2 53.0 62.5 92.0 127.3 105.1 57.2 97.9 92.2 20.0 18.5 -16.6 12.1 Discrepancy (sources less uses) 16.7 16.7 12.9 17.0 22.0 14.7 21.2 -.8 8.1 34.1 2.2 29.0 44.2 61.0 72.6 71.2 Government. Note.—Series revised beginning 1977. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars, except as noted] Current liabilitie,s Current assets End of period SEC series: 2 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 FTC-FRB series: 3 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1980: HE IV 1981: I n m.... IV 1 TT <? Total Cash Government securities Notes and accounts receivable 492.3 529.6 599.3 697.8 790.7 50.2 53.3 59.0 66.3 71.1 7.7 11.0 10.6 12.8 12.3 206.1 221.1 735.4 759.0 826.8 902.1 1,030.0 1,200.9 1,281.6 1,361.4 1,254.9 1,281.6 1,321.2 1,317.4 1,349.2 1,361.4 73.2 82.1 88.2 95.8 104.5 116.1 121.0 124.5 113.4 121.0 120.5 118.5 118.3 124.5 11.1 19.0 23.4 17.6 16.3 15.6 17.3 15.8 16.4 17.3 17.0 17.7 16.0 15.8 Total Notes and accounts payable Other current liabilities ratio * 92.7 110.7 128.1 1.615 1.625 1.595 .548 .491 183.6 187.4 212.8 236.2 291.7 352.8 378.9 421.0 373.4 378.9 406.9 407.2 422.0 421.0 282.0 307.4 332.2 352.7 364.6 391.8 404.4 399.1 404.3 404.4 410.3 409.3 398.1 399.1 .622 .681 .672 1.642 1.548 1.484 1.461 1.415 1.475 1.461 1.450 1.451 1.419 1.415 326.0 375.6 450.9 530.4 211.3 220.5 93.6 105.5 248.2 288.5 322.1 35.0 43.8 55.8 66.4 71.7 282.9 340.3 402.3 265.8 272.1 292.8 324.7 383.8 456.8 491.2 512.3 478.7 491.2 507.3 507.4 519.7 512.3 319.5 315.9 342.4 374.8 426.9 501.7 525.4 565.3 524.5 525.4 542.8 540.0 557.2 565.3 65.9 69.9 80.1 89.2 98.5 110.8 126.7 143.4 121.9 126.7 133.6 133.7 138.1 143.4 453.4 451.6 494.7 549.4 665.5 809.1 877.2 962.3 850.5 877.2 910.9 908.1 951.1 962.3 269.8 264.2 281.9 313.2 373.7 456.3 498.3 541.3 477.2 498.3 504.0 500.8 529.1 541.3 304.9 Net working capital 187.4 203.6 223.7 246.9 260.3 193.3 200.4 225.7 263.9 313.6 Total current assets divided by total current liabilities. 2 Based on data from Statistics of Income, Department of the Treasury. 3 Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations, Federal Trade Commission. Other current assets Inventories NOTE.—SEC series not available after 1974. See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details regarding the series. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Trade Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates fell again in September. PERCENT PER ANNUM 16 12 10. CORPORATE Aaa BONDS (MOODY'S) ^ I I I I I i I I I I I 1974 1977 1976 1975 1982 1978 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW [Percent per annum] U.S.I ^reasury security yields Period 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981: Sept Oct Nov Dec 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept* Week ended: 1982: Aug 14 21 28 Sept 4 11 18 25 Oct 2 1 3-month bills1 Constant naaturities 2 3-year 10-year 4.989 5.265 7.221 10.041 11.506 14.077 14.951 13.873 11.269 10.926 12.412 13,780 12.493 12.821 12.148 12.108 11.914 9.006 8.196 6.77 6.69 8.29 9.72 11.55 14.44 16.22 15.50 13.11 13.66 14.64 14.73 14.13 14.18 13.77 14.48 14.00 12.62 12.03 7.61 7.42 8.41 9.44 11.46 13.91 15.32 15.15 13.39 13.72 14.59 14.43 13.86 13.87 13.62 14.30 13.95 13.06 12.34 10.025 8.616 7.748 8.604 8.565 8.161 7.849 7.801 13.24 12.07 12.00 12.25 12.16 12.23 11.96 13.57 12.60 12.51 12.69 12.58 12.58 12.14 High-grade municipal bonds (Standard3& Poor's) 6.49 5.56 5.90 6.39 8.51 11.23 12.86 12.67 11.71 12.77 13.16 12.81 12.72 12.45 11.99 12.42 12.11 11.12 10.61 11.73 10.63 10.37 10.69 10.71 10.64 10.53 10.48 Rate on new issues within period; bank-discount basis. Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Prior to November 1, 1979, data are for 4-6 months paper. 5 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 2 30 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody 's) 8.43 8.02 8.73 9.63 11.94 14.17 15.49 15.40 14.22 14.23 15.18 15.27 14.58 14.46 14.26 14.81 14.61 13.71 12.96 14.14 13.48 13.15 13.20 13.03 13.08 12.83 Prime commercial paper, 4 6 months 4 Discount rate (N.Y. F.R. Bank)5 Prime rate charged 5by banks 5.34 5.61 7.99 10.91 12.29 14.76 15.93 14.72 11.96 12.14 13.35 14.27 13.47 13.64 13.02 13.79 13.00 10.80 10.86 5.50 5.46 7.46 10.28 11.77 13.41 14-14 14-14 14-13 13-12 12-12 12-12 12-12 12-12 12-12 12-12 12-11^ llM-10 10-10 6.84 6.83 9.06 12.67 15.27 18.87 20^-19^ 19&-18 18-16 158-158 158-158 158-168 168-168 168-168 168-168 168-168 168-158 15J£-13& 138-138 11.67 9.98 10.10 10.84 10.95 11.20 10.76 11-11 11 10^ 10^-10 10-10 10 -10 10 10 10 -10 10 - 15-15 15 14 14-13^ 138 138 138-138 138-133^ 13^-138 138 4 4 New-home mortgage yields (FHLBB)6 9.00 9.02 9.56 10.78 12.66 14.70 15.29 15.65 16.38 15.87 15.25 15.12 15.67 15.84 15.89 15.40 15.70 15.71 6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Bates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS In September stock prices continued the rise begun in late August. INDEX, DEC. 31 1965=50 INDEX, DEC. 31,1965=50 80 SO 70 - - 70 60 60 50 40 30 EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS (S&P) 10 J 1974 L I I I 1975 J L 1976 I I I I I I I 1978 1977 I I 1979 J L 1980 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION J L 1981 Common stock price s 1 Ne^v York Stock Ex shange indexes (I)ec. 31, 1965—5O) 2 Period Composite 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981: Sept Oct Nov Dec 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept" Week ended: 1982: Aug 14 21 28 Sept 4 11 18 25 1 Industrial Transportation 78.07 78.93 80.86 81.70 76.85 74.78 71.51 75.59 75.97 71.59 71.37 70.98 80.08 39.57 41.09 43.50 47.34 60.61 72.61 63.67 65.65 67.68 68.27 62.04 59.09 55.19 57.91 56.84 53.07 53.40 53.98 61.39 66.56 69.93 75.77 78.05 79.65 80.74 80.93 49.78 53.40 58.63 61.24 61.96 61.73 61.18 54.46 53.69 53.70 58.32 68.10 74.02 68.37 69.40 71.49 71.81 67.91 66.16 63.86 66.97 67.07 63.10 62.82 62.91 70.21 60.44 59.13 62.34 67.02 68.64 69.74 70.63 70.91 57.86 58.23 64.76 78.70 85.44 1982 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Utility Finance Dow-Jones industrial average 3 52.94 974.92 39.22 38.20 37.35 38.91 38.17 38.87 40.73 40.22 39.30 38.32 38.57 39.20 39.40 37.34 37.20 38.19 40.36 55.25 56.65 61.42 64.25 73.52 69.38 72.56 76.47 74.74 70.99 70.50 69.08 71.44 69.16 63.19 61.5$ 1 62.84 69.66 894.63 820.23 844.40 891.41 932.92 853.38 853.25 860.44 878.28 853.41 833.15 812.33 844.96 846.72 804.37 818.41 832.11 917.27 36.37 38.81 40.26 40.11 40.08 40.29 40.60 59.27 62.68 66.58 67.57 67.91 69.53 70.86 780.37 832.19 885.37 904.84 912.35 923.38 924.80 36.97 40.92 Average of daily closing prices. Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE. Includes 30 stocks. 4 Includes 500 stocks. 5 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earningsprice ratios based on prices at end of quarter. Standard & Poor's composite index (194143 = 10)4 102.01 98.20 96.02 Common st ock yields (percent)* Dividendprice ratio 3.77 4.62 103.01 118.78 128.05 118.27 119.80 122.92 123.79 117.28 114.50 110.84 116.31 116.35 109.70 109.38 109.65 122.43 5.28 5.47 5.26 5.20 5.69 5.65 5.54 5.57 5.95 6.06 6.28 5.99 5.97 6.28 6.31 6.32 5.63 102.96 108.77 116.94 119.68 121.63 123.19 123.70 6.69 6.30 5.81 5.80 5.61 5.52 5.54 Earningsprice ratio 8.90 10.79 12.03 13.46 12.66 11.96 13.13 12.53 13.24 NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). 2 3 Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first 11 months of fiscal year 1982, there was a budget deficit of $109.0 billion, compared to a budget deficit of $64.3 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BUDGET SURPLUS + OR DEFICIT 1974 1975 - 1976 1978 1977 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 FISCAL YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Period Fiscal year or period: 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Transition quarter 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 * 1983 (estimates): First Concurrent Resolution, June 23, 1982 Mid-Session Review, July 1982 l Cumulative total, first 11 months: Fiscal year 1981 Fiscal year 1982 Budget receipts Budget surplus or deficit (-) Off-budget outlays Total surplus or deficit (— ) Federal debt ( end of period) Gross Held by the public 8.1 7.3 1.8 8.7 10.4 12.5 14.2 21.0 19.3 23.4 -14.9 -6.1 -53.2 -73.7 -14.7 53.6 -59.2 -40.2 -73.8 -78.9 -128.2 468.4 486.2 544.1 631.9 646.4 709.1 780.4 833.8 914.3 1,003.9 1,137.1 323.8 343.0 346.1 396.9 480.3 498.3 551.8 610.9 644.6 715.1 794.4 922.4 103.9 -115.0 14.9 -129.9 1,273.5 1,048.4 64.3 -109.0 17.9 14.5 -82.2 -123.4 986.3 1,114.2 785.9 907.2 207.3 230.8 263.2 279.1 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 622.1 230.7 245.6 267.9 324.2 364.5 94.2 400.5 448.4 491.0 576.7 657.2 731.0 -23.4 14.8 -4.7 .1 1.4 45.2 -66.4 -13.0 -44.9 -48.8 -27.7 59.6 -57.9 -108.9 665.9 646.5 769.8 761.5 539.0 558.1 603.3 667.0 1 Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1983 Budget, Office of Management and Budget, July 30, 1982. 32 Budget outlays 437.3 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget, except as noted. FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 11 months of fiscal year 1982, budget receipts were $19.1 billion higher than a year earlier and budget outlays were $63.7 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 400 BUDGET RECEIPTS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 400 300 INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES 200 200 OTHER RECEIPTS 100 100 CORPORATION INCOME TAXES J I I 600 600 BUDGET OUTLAYS 500 500 400 400 NONDEFENSE \ 300 300 200 200 100 100 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1982 1981 1983 FISCAL YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Budget outlays Budget njceipts Nation al defense Period Total Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes Fiscal year or period: 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Transition quarter 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 l 1983 l 207.3 230.8 263.2 279.1 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 622.1 646.5 94.7 103.2 32.2 36.2 119.0 122.4 131.6 38.8 157.6 181.0 217.8 244.1 285.9 298.5 293.8 Cumulative total, first 11 months: Fiscal year 1981 Fiscal year 1982 539.0 558.1 254.7 265.5 Other Total 38.6 40.6 41.4 8.5 54.9 60.0 65.7 64.6 61.1 49.9 58.3 . 80.4 91.4 105.7 116.1 125.0 34.0 143.0 158.6 179.8 208.4 252.2 273.7 294.4 230.7 245.6 267.9 324.2 364.5 94.2 400.5 448.4 491.0 576.7 657.2 731.0 761.5 52.5 43.1 231.8 249.5 603.3 667.0 1 Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1983 Evdget, Office of Management and Budget, July 30, 1982. Depart- Total Defense, military International affairs 77.8 85.6 89.4 22.3 97.5 105.2 117.7 135.9 159.8 187.7 221.5 75.1 73.2 77.6 84.9 87.9 21.9 95.6 103.0 115.0 132.8 156.1 182.8 215.9 4.1 5.7 6.9 5.6 2.2 4.8 5.9 6.1 10.7 11.1 11.2 12.1 145.7 170.4 142.4 166.4 10.1 8.5 76.6 74.5 4.7 Health and income security Interest Other 134.3 158.9 41.0 174.5 187.4 207.1 248.3 291.1 322.9 337.8 20.6 22.8 28.0 30.9 34.5 7.2 38.0 44.0 52.6 64.5 82.5 99.9 111.1 48.8 53.9 51.6 66.5 76.1 21.5 85.7 105.9 107.5 117.3 112.7 109.3 79.0 266.2 294.7 76.2 93.8 105.1 99.5 80.0 90.4 104.8 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the second quarter of 1982, according to revised estimates, Federal receipts rose $7.1 billion (annual rate) and expenditures rose $8.3 billion, yielding a deficit of $119.6 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 500 500 400 400 300 300 50 50 SURPLUS 0 0 DEFICIT J -50 -100 -50 -100 -150 -150 1974 1977 1976 1975 1980 1979 1978 1981 1982 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal <jrovernmem expenditur Federal Governme at receipts Personal Period Total Fiscal year: 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 Calendar year: 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1980: HI. IV 1981: I n m IV 1982: I n tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Contributions for social insurance Total Transfer payments and local governments 365.9 414.3 480.9 525.2 614.7 166.3 186.5 222.6 250.2 291.8 67.3 76.1 70.1 70.9 24.5 27.2 29.2 34.6 55.7 133.3 153.1 170.4 196.3 411.2 450.3 495.6 576.9 666.6 139.8 150.4 164.2 189.8 218.0 169.9 182.2 201.8 239.4 279.2 86.6 90.1 375.2 431.6 493.6 540.7 628.2 542.4 574.6 620.0 627.0 640.2 625.7 609.9 617.0 170.1 194.9 230.6 257.5 298.1 260.1 274.4 286.4 297.0 307.9 300.9 299.9 305.8 61.6 71.3 74.2 70.3 67.3 68.0 72.8 76.1 65.6 68.4 59.1 46.5 45.2 25.0 28.1 29.4 38.9 58.5 40.2 47.7 57.5 61.5 57.8 57.2 48.7 49.8 118.5 137.2 159.5 174.1 204.3 174.0 179.8 199.9 202.8 206.1 208.4 214.9 216.2 421.1 461.0 509.7 602.1 688.2 615.4 639.9 659.7 667.5 698.2 727.4 728.3 736.6 143.4 153.6 168.3 197.2 228.9 193.3 207.0 217.0 218.2 230.0 250.5 249.7 244.3 172.8 185.6 209.2 251.4 286.6 266.3 271.9 274.0 276.7 295.1 300.7 303.2 312.8 67.5 77.3 80.5 88.7 87.7 88.9 92.7 90.2 90.6 86.3 83.6 83.0 85.0 58.9 116.2 NOTE.—First- and second-quarter 1982 estimates of profits tax liability have been revised to incorporate the effects of the enactment of the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982. 34 Purchases of goods and services Grantsin-aid to State 66.4 74.7 79.1 Net interest paid 28.5 33.6 40.6 50.6 66.2 29.1 35.2 42.4 53.1 71.9 53.3 56.0 66.3 68.3 74.0 79.0 79.6 82.8 Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises 6.9 Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Surplus or deficit national income and product accounts 9.8 9.8 10.5 13.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 -45.4 36.1 -14.8 -51.9 -51.9 8.2 9.5 9.2 11.7 13.1 .0 .0 .0 -.0 .0 -45.9 -29.5 -16.1 -61.4 -60.0 13.6 12.3 12.2 13.7 13.0 13.6 12.7 11.6 .0 .0 -73.1 -65.2 .0 .0 .2 -.1 _2 -39.7 -40.5 -58.0 -101.7 .0 -118.4 -119.6 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget. INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES [1967 = 100] Indu strial prod uction (seeLsonally adju sted) Period United States 1975 1976 117.8 130.5 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981: Sept Oct Nov Dec 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr" May p June p July p*. 138.2 146.1 152.5 147.0 151.0 151.6 149.1 146.3 143.4 140.7 142.9 141.7 140.2 139.2 138.5 138.7 138.0 Ang 1 Canada Japan Prance Germany 140.3 148.5 152.2 163.9 182.0 189.7 201.1 217.7 232.5 239.3 139 149 137.1 149.1 152.0 154.1 161.8 162.3 160.0 161 161 160 158 161 163 164 163 161 157 157.7 166.0 162.7 164.8 162.3 160.0 157.4 155.3 153.8 153.5 151.6 149.2 151.8 147.5 243.1 246.7 246.4 244.4 152 154 161 160 157 160 160 160 162 244.1 244.4 245.1 240.7 236.4 241.8 242.1 156 156 157 156 159 159 Consume;r prices (iinadjusted) Italy United Kingdom United States * Canada Japan France Germany 114.3 117.4 123.0 127.0 131.7 123.1 118.2 161.2 170.5 181.5 195.4 217.4 246.8 272.4 160.1 172.1 185.9 202.5 221.0 243.5 273.9 205.8 224.9 243.0 252.3 261.3 282.3 296.2 178.9 144.2 150.4 119.0 121.0 119.1 118.3 279.3 279.9 280.7 281.5 280.2 283.0 285.4 286.7 299.5 300.7 299.8 299.8 118.0 118.8 119.1 119.3 119.8 117.7 282.5 283.4 283.1 284.3 287.1 290.6 292.2 292.8 288.7 292.1 295.8 297.5 301.5 304.5 306.1 307.6 300.7 299.8 300.4 302.9 303.8 303.8 301.5 127.6 143.5 145.1 147.9 157.6 166.5 162.6 163.1 154.7 163.6 158.9 156.7 164.1 161.4 161.3 160.4 153.6 Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. 196.1 214.5 233.9 259.1 294.2 332.7 342.9 347.1 350.3 352.4 356.0 359.6 363.8 368.2 371.1 373.7 374.7 155.9 160.2 166.8 175.9 186.4 188.6 189.2 190.1 190.7 192.3 192.8 193.1 194.0 195.2 197.1 197.6 197.3 Italy 186.8 218.1 255.2 286.2 328.5 398.0 472.4 487.7 497.5 506.0 511.1 517.7 524.4 529.1 533.9 539.8 545.2 553.4 563.4 United Kingdom 216.5 252.4 292.4 316.6 359.0 423.6 473.9 483.5 487.9 493.0 496.1 499.0 499.1 503.5 513.6 517.3 518.9 518.9 519.0 Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, Office of Planning and Research, in International Economic Indicators. U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Her 3handise expc rts 1 Period Total domestic and foreign exports Total 2 Pood, beverages, and tobacco Crude materials and fuels Merch andise trade balance Merc bandise imj orts Geileral import s 3 Exports Total 2 Food, beverages, and tobacco Crude materials and fuels Manufactured goods Total (c.i.f. value) less imports (customs value) 892 827 991 1,186 1,312 1,478 1,546 2,672 2,716 3,457 4,463 4,325 5,949 7,831 4,602 4,257 5,398 6,379 8,360 9,352 10,427 9,240 8,823 11,042 13,368 15,504 18,519 21,415 7,739 11,873 22,779 -2,275 -3,306 7,779 7,411 7,642 7,468 6,174 13,361 11,971 13,127 12,826 11,414 24,398 22,317 24,194 23,568 20,699 -4,212 -1,724 -3,914 -3,356 -861 -5,367 -2,766 5,031 -4,415 -1,814 8,269 5,845 5,717 5,033 4,906 6,198 6,645 7,168 12,584 11,527 12,402 10,337 13,219 12,899 10,982 14,111 23,870 19,900 21,237 18,165 21,509 22,259 20,449 24,578 -4,092 -387 -1,747 -456 -2,340 -2,488 -1,532 -5,996 -5,134 -1,197 -2,635 -322 -3,291 -3,437 -2,422 -7,080 Domestic exports Manufactured goods a a o \ Exports (f.a.s.) less imports (f.a.s.) Exports (f.a.s.) less imports (c.i.f.) ]?.a.s. valu 3 Monthly average: 1974* 1975* 1976* 1977* 1978* 1979* 1980 8,174 8,971 9,602 10,103 11,973 15,155 18,386 8,053 8,842 9,456 9,912 11,753 14,869 18,036 1,269 1,399 1,436 1,330 1,717 2,049 2,534 1,317 1,266 1,341 1,548 1,746 2,352 2,810 5,294 5,913 6,437 6,679 7,873 9,716 11,991 8,547 8,209 10,290 12,533 14,563 17,455 20,406 19,473 19,075 2,767 2,752 12,857 21,748 19,031 19,551 19,163 19,153 18,885 18,720 19,108 18,733 18,751 18,377 2,470 2,772 2,920 2,675 2,515 2,662 2,795 2,863 2,872 2,934 12,991 12,947 12,458 12,590 12,318 23,242 21,274 23,077 22,508 19,746 18,737 18,704 18,602 17,843 18,218 18,822 18,027 17,498 18,350 18,341 18,127 17,441 17,807 18,386 17,638 17,177 2,279 2,482 2,673 2,506 2,478 2,421 1,896 2,162 3,076 3,434 3,151 2,898 2,912 2,797 2,617 2,642 12,463 11,876 11,822 11,428 11,837 12,563 12,590 11,882 22,829 19,090 20,349 17,387 20,558 21,310 19,559 23,494 -372 762 -688 -2,430 -2,590 -2,300 -2,020 -1,065 148 — 1,440 3,265 -3,530 -3,364 -3,030 Customs value 1981 1981: Aug Sept Get Nov Dee 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug 1 Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginning January 1978. 2 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. 3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. NOTE.—Imports on e.Lf. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods. 1,529 1,479 1,393 1,583 1,413 1,542 1,340 1,154 1,529 1,435 1,569 1,567 1,389 1,617 Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Islands exports are reflected only in the figures for total domestic and foreign exports and trade balance. * Data for 1974—79 for total domestic and foreign exports, total general imports, and trade balance include trade of the Virgin Islands. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS The surplus on current account increased to $2.1 billion in the second quarter from $1.1 billion in the first quarter. The merchandise trade deficit fell slightly, to $5.8 billion from $5.9 billion in the first quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 10 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 10 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BALANCE ON GOODS/, ,«•«••,,,AND \ i SERVICES g// / BALANCE ON CURRENT ACCOUNT MERCHANDISE TRADE -5 -5 t i V -10 -10 I -15 I I I 1975 I I 1976 j L J 1978 1977 1979 L I I I I 1981 1980 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE I I -15 1982 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (-f), debits (—)] Merchandise l 2 Period Exports Imports In vestment incorn e 3 Net balance Eeceipts Payments Net Net Net military transactions transportation receipts services, net 3 Balance on goods and services * Othor Remittances, pensions, and other unilateral transfers * Balance on current account -3,881 7,140 2,124 -7,186 -4,613 18,280 4,384 -4,998 -4,617 -14,068 -5,030 -14,773 -5,561 -466 1,520 -6,783 4,471 -6,608 71,410 98,306 107,088 114,745 120,816 142,054 184,473 224,237 236,254 -70,499 - 103,649 -98,041 -124,051 -151,689 -175,813 -211,819 -249,575 -264,143 911 -5,343 9,047 -9,306 -30,873 -33,759 -27,346 -25,338 -27,889 21,808 27,587 25,351 29,286 32,179 42,245 64,129 72,686 85,945 9,655 - 12,084 12,564 -13,311 14,217 -21,680 32,914 -42,776 52,908 12,153 15,503 12,787 15,975 17,962 20,565 31,215 29,910 33,037 -2,070 -1,653 -746 559 1,528 621 -2,035 -2,471 j g^j -3,158 -3,184 -2,792 -2,558 -3,293 -3,125 -2,429 -940 -231 3,184 3,986 4,598 4,711 5,224 5,955 5,690 7,144 7,702 11,021 9,309 22,893 9,382 -9,451 -9,743 5,095 8,303 11,079 1980: HI IV 55,786 57,856 -59,735 -63,046 -3,949 -5,190 17,848 18,877 -10,485 -11,518 7,363 7,359 -286 -742 -114 -174 1,810 1,879 4,824 3,131 -1,444 -2,195 3,380 936 1981: I IV. 60,683 60,284 57,694 57,593 -64,995 -66,831 -65,539 -66,778 -4,312 -6,547 -7,845 -9,185 20,528 21,642 22,048 21,727 -12,405 -13,441 -13,865 -13,198 8,123 8,201 8,183 8,529 -487 -587 61 -528 -495 -139 200 203 1,838 1,981 1,960 1,924 4,667 2,909 2,559 943 -1,422 -1,510 -1,808 -1,870 3,245 1,399 751 -927 1982: lp. IP 55,780 55,094 -61,653 -60,878 -5,873 -5,784 20,890 22,709 -14,029 -15,036 6,861 7,673 167 371 -66 -546 2,047 2,081 3,136 3,794 -2,048 -1,732 1,088 2,062 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 n ffl 1 Excludes military grants. Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. Pees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. 2 3 Note.—Data revised for first quarter of 1982. 36 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $33.9 billion in the second quarter, compared with $32.7 billion in the first quarter, reflecting activity of International Banking Facilities (IBFs) and the on-going transfer of U.S. banks' business from offshore branches to their IBFs. Liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $24.1 billion, the third consecutive large quarterly increase. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 60 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 60 -20 -20 -40 -40 -60 -60 1982 1974 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Foreign assets in the 1IS., net [increas B/ capital inflowv (+)]2 U.S. assets abroad, net i increase /capitiil outflow (— )] Period Total 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 U.S. official reserve assets l 2 Other U.S. Government assets U.S. private assets Total Foreign official assets Other foreign assets -22,874 -34,745 -39,703 -51,269 -34,785 -61,130 -64,344 -86,026 -109,294 158 -1,467 -849 -2,558 -375 732 -1,133 -8,155 -5,175 366 -3,474 -4,214 -3,693 -4,660 -3,743 -5,126 5,137 20,388 -33,643 35,380 -44,498 30,717 -57,202 59,469 -72,746 98,982 34,241 15,670 36,518 51,319 64,036 38,460 54,484 77,921 6,026 10,546 7,027 17,693 36,816 33,678 -13,697 15,442 4,785 12,362 23,696 8,643 18,826 14,503 30,358 52,157 39,042 73,136 1980: ffl IV -19,635 -28,512 -1,109 -4,279 -1,390 -1,154 17,136 -23,079 12,647 25,356 7,541 7,678 5,106 17,677 1981: I -22,796 -21,566 -17,257 -47,677 -4,529 -905 -4 262 -1,375 1,518 -1,257 -987 -16,892 -19,143 -15,996 -46,952 8,470 13,464 16,880 39,107 5,361 -2,861 -5,835 8,119 3,109 16,324 22,715 30,988 -31,201 -34,615 -1,089 -1,132 -904 -1,559 -29,208 -31,924 25,080 31,182 3,122 1,935 28,202 29,248 n m IV 1982: I* n*.... -2,644 18,388 1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDEs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the IMF. 2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. Statistical discrepancy Allocations of special drawing rights (SDEs) Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy 1,093 assets, netl (unadjusted, end of period) 14,378 15,883 16,226 18,747 19,312 18,650 18,956 26,756 30,074 -2,654 1,139 1,152 1,093 TT ^ rrffininl -1,620 5,753 10,367 -2,465 11,866 25,212 ^8,870 25,809 3,608 2,219 -2,754 2,605 22,994 26,756 9,988 6,703 374 9,497 -829 503 -2,144 2,474 30,410 29,582 29,715 30,074 5,032 1,370 -899 577 29,944 30,671 NOTE.—Data revised for first quarter of 1982. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING page Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income , Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment—Nonfarm Business 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders ,. 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets Components of Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets Consumer Installment Credit Bank Loans and Investments, and Reserves Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function........ Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions , 35 35 36 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402 Price $2.75 (single copy) ($3.45 foreign). Subscription price: $21.00 per year; $26.25 for foreign mailing. 38 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE = 1982 0—98-085
@FedFRASER