Full text of Economic Indicators : September 1976
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Congress, 2d Session Economic Indicators September 1976 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1976 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) HUBERT H. HUMPHREY, Minnesota, Chairman RICHARD BOLLING, Missouri, Vice Chairman SENATE JOHN SPARKMAN (Alabama) WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) ABRAHAM RIBICOFF (Connecticut) LLOYD M. BENTSEN, JR. (Texas) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) JACOB K. JAVITS (New York) CHARLES H. PERCY (Illinois) ROBERT TAFT, JR. (Ohio) PAUL J. FANNIN (Arizona) HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES HENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin) WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD (Pennsylvania) LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana) GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana) OTIS G. PIKE (New York) CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio) GARRY BROWN (Michigan) MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts) JOHN H. ROUSSELOT (California) JOHN R. STARK, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS ALAN GREENSPAN, Chairman PAUL W. MAcAVOY BURTON G. MALKIEL Economic Indicators -prepared under supervision of FRANCES M. JAMES [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT Congress; CHAPTER 237—1st SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators* * Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at 85 cents a single copy or by subscription at $10.10 per year ($2.55 additional for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON D.C. 20402 Subscribers who wish to receive it at an earlier date after release may take advantage of provisions for airmail subscriptions. The domestic airmail subscription price is $3.60 additional per year. TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT Recently revised figures for the second quarter indicate that gross national product rose $30.0 billion or at an annual rate of 9,9 percent. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) increased at a rate of 4.5 percent compared with 9.2 percent in the first quarter. The inflation rate rose from a 3.2 percent to a 5.2 percent annual rate. WLUONS OF DOOMS (RATIO SCALE} 1,800 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS {RATO SOUIJ 1,800 1,400 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 1968 1969 1970 1974 1973 1972 1975 1976 COUNC8. OP ECONOMIC A&YISBtS SOURCE; DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Export & and imi>orts of gooc s and ser vices Go-*pernment purchases of goods and services Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total Total National defense 1 Nondefense State and local Final sales 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 688. 1 753.0 796.3 868.5 935. 5 982.4 1, 063. 4 1, 171. 1 1, 306. 6 1, 413. 2 1, 516. 3 430.2 464. 8 490.4 535.9 579.7 618. 8 668.2 733. 0 809. 9 887. 5 973. 2 112. 0 124.5 120.8 131. 5 146. 2 140. 8 160. 0 188. 3 220. 0 215. 0 183. 7 7. 6 5. 1 4.9 2. 3 1.8 3.9 1.6 -3.3 7. 1 7.5 20. 5 39. 5 42. 8 45. 6 49.9 54.7 62.5 65. 6 72. 7 101. 6 144. 4 148. 1 32. 0 37. 7 40. 6 47. 7 52. 9 58. 5 64. 0 75. 9 94. 4 136. 9 127. 6 138.4 158. 7 180.2 198.7 207. 9 218.9 233.7 253. 1 269.5 303. 3 339. 0 67. 3 78. 8 90.9 98.0 97. 5 95. 6 96.2 102. 1 102. 2 111. 6 124. 4 49.4 60.3 71.5 76.9 76.3 73.5 70.2 73.5 73.5 77.3 84.3 17.8 18. 5 19. 5 21. 2 21.2 22. 1 26. 0 28. 6 28. 7 34. 3 40. 1 71. 1 79. 8 89. 3 100. 7 110.4 123. 2 137. 5 151. 0 167. 3 191. 6 214. 5 678.6 738.7 786. 2 860.8 926.2 978. 6 1, 057. 1 1, 161. 7 1, 288. 6 1, 402. 5 1, 531. 0 1975: I II... III.. IV___ 1, 446. 2 933. 2 1, 482. 3 960. 3 1, 548. 7 987. 3 1, 588. 2 1, 012. 0 172. 4 164. 4 196. 7 201.4 15. 0 24. 4 21. 4 21. 0 147. 5 142. 9 148. 2 153. 7 132.5 118. 5 126. 8 132. 7 325. 6 333. 2 343. 2 353. 8 120. 3 122.4 124. 6 130.4 82. 0 83.4 84. 6 87. 1 38. 3 39. 0 40. 0 43.2 205. 3 210. 9 218. 6 223. 4 1, 468. 1, 512. 1, 550. 1, 592. 1976:1 1, 636. 2 1, 043. 6 !!___ 1, 675. 2 1, 064. 7 229. 6 239.2 8. 4 9.3 154. 1 160.3 145. 7 151.0 354. 7 362. 0 129. 2 131.2 86. 2 86.9 42.9 442 » This category corresponds closely with budget outlays for national defense, shown on p. 33. 4 3 6 5 | 225. 5 1 1,621.4 230. 9 1,659.2 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS [Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross i>rivate domestic Exports of go ods i]avestmenlt mad service8 Personal conGross Change national sumpNonproduct Resi- in busition Net resiExports Imports expend- dential dential ness in- exports ventofixed itures fixed ries Period Govern!nent purebases of gooda and ser</ices Total Federal State and local Final sales 925.9 981. 0 1, 007. 7 1, 051. 8 1, 078. 8 1, 075. 3 1, 107. 5 1, 171. 1 1, 235. 0 1, 214. 0 1, 191. 7 558. 1 586.1 603.2 633.4 655.4 668.9 691.9 733.0 767. 7 759. 1 770.3 95.6 106. 1 103. 5 108.0 114. 3 110. 0 108. 0 116. 8 131. 0 128. 5 111.4 43.2 38. 5 37.2 42.8 43. 2 40.4 52.2 62. 0 59.7 45. 0 38.4 11. 3 16.7 12.0 8.7 10.6 4.3 6.6 9.4 16. 5 8.5 -12. 0 8.2 4.3 3. 5 —.4 -1. 3 1,4 —.6 -3.3 7. 6 16.5 22. 6 49. 1 51. 6 54. 2 58. 5 62. 2 67. 1 67.9 72.7 87. 4 97. 2 90.6 41. 0 47.3 50.7 58.9 63.5 65.7 68.5 75.9 79. 9 80. 7 68. 1 209.6 229.3 248.3 259. 2 256.7 250. 2 249.4 253. 1 252. 5 256. 4 261.0 100.5 112.5 125.3 128. 3 121.8 110. 7 103.9 102. 1 96. 6 95. 3 95. 7 109.1 116.8 123. 1 130.9 134.9 139. 5 145.5 151.0 155.9 161. 1 165. 2 914.6 964. 3 995. 7 1, 043. 1 1, 068. 2 1, 071. 0 1, 100. 9 1, 161. 7 1, 218. 5 1, 205. 5 1, 203. 7 1, 161. 1 1975: I !!___ 1, 177. 1 III._ 1, 209. 3 IV— 1, 219. 2 754.6 767.5 775.3 783.9 114.4 110.6 110. 1 110.5 35. 4 36.8 39.6 41.9 -20.5 -21.2 -1.0 — 5. 5 20.1 24.3 22. 8 23. 1 90. 3 87.7 90.7 93.9 70.2 63.4 67.9 70. 8 257. 1 259. 1 262.4 265.2 94 8 95. 3 95.6 97.2 162. 2 163.8 166. 9 168. 0 1, 181. 6 1, 198. 2 1, 210. 2 1, 224. 7 1976:I_._. 1, 246. 3 II— 1, 260. 0 800. 7 808.6 112.6 114.9 44.1 45.7 10.4 11.1 16. 6 16.0 93. 6 95.4 77.0 79.4 261. 9 263. 6 95.4 96.0 166.6 167.7 1, 235. 9 1, 248. 8 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 _ IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1972=100] Gross national product Period Persona consumi>tion exp€mditures Total Gross private dom estic invesifcment Nonres- ResiNonDurable durable Services idential dential goods fixed goods fixed Expor ts and imports of goods and scjrvices Governnlent purchases ()f goods and s€ rvices State Exports Imports Federal and local 74. 32 76.76 79. 02 82.57 86.72 91.36 96.02 100. 00 105. 80 116. 41 127. 25 77.1 79. 3 81. 3 84.6 88.5 92.5 96. 6 100. 0 105.5 116.9 126.3 85.6 85.7 87.4 90.7 93. 1 95. 5 99. 0 100. 0 101.6 108. 3 117. 7 77.3 80. 1 81.9 85.3 89.4 93. 6 96. 6 100. 0 107.9 124. 0 133.7 74. 3 76. 5 78.8 82.0 86. 1 90. 5 95. 8 100. 0 104.7 113. 5 122. 7 74.5 76. 8 79. 3 82.6 86.6 91. 3 96. 4 100. 0 103.8 116. 1 132. 1 72. 3 74.6 77.0 80. 7 87.7 90. 6 94. 9 100. 0 110. 8 122. 3 133. 2 80.5 82. 8 84. 0 85. 3 87.9 93. 1 96.6 100.0 116. 2 148. 6 163.4 78.0 79. 7 80. 1 80.9 83.3 89. 1 93. 5 100. 0 118. 2 169. 6 187. 4 67. 0 70.1 72. 6 76.4 80.0 86.4 92. 6 100.0 105. 8 117. 1 130. 0 65. 1 68.4 72.5 76.9 81.9 88. 3 94. 5 100. 0 107. 3 119. 0 129. 8 1975:1 II III IV 124. 55 125. 93 128. 07 130. 27 123.7 125. 1 127. 3 129. 1 115. 1 117. 1 118. 2 120. 2 131. 2 132. 1 135. 1 136. 2 119. 7 121. 5 123. 6 125.9 129.4 131.8 132. 7 134. 5 131. 5 132. 1 132. 8 135. 9 163.4 163. 0 163. 4 163. 7 188. 9 186. 9 186.6 187. 3 126.8 12a4 130.4 134.2 126.5 128.7 131.0 132.9 1976:1 II 131. 29 132. 96 130. 3 131. 7 121. 8 123.8 136.4 136.9 128.0 129.8 136.2 137.5 139. 0 142.9 164. 6 168. 1 189.2 190.4 135.4 136.7 135.4 137.7 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 _-__ Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross national product Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars Period 1965... 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 — — 1975: I 5.9 5.9 8.2 9.4 5.8 2. 7 9. 1 4.4 2.6 7.7 5.0 8.2 -. 3 3.0 III IV_____ 1976: I IL_ 1.9 1.8 2.9 2.2 3.3 2.9 4.5 5.0 5.4 5. 1 4. 1 3. 1 3.0 4.4 5.0 5.3 5.0 4. 1 6. 0 10. 0 10. 0 7.3 5. 7 5. 5 -1. 7 -1. 8 -.8 -9.9 5.6 10. 1 4. 5 3.3 7. 1 7.3 6.4 9. 2 3.2 5.2 4. 3 11.4 12. 6 9. 9 . Chain price index Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) 10.1 11. 6 8. 2 10.4 19. 1 10.6 II Implicit price deflator Gross domestic product 4.5 5.8 9.3 7.0 NOTE.—Annual changes from previous year and quarterly changes from previous quarter. 9.2 9. 2 5. 4 5.4 3. 0 4.3 5.0 5.2 4.9 4.0 6. 0 10. 0 9.2 8.9 5.4 7.3 6. 6 4. 2 5.2 Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars 8.2 9.6 5.7 9.1 7.8 5.0 8.1 Implicit price deflator 2.2 3.3 3.0 4.5 3. 1 3. 1 5.3 5.1 4.1 5.7 9.6 9.5 5.9 10.9 4. 5 9.4 7.0 3.4 7. 1 7.4 6.4 9.0 5.5 7.4 6.7 9.0 4.6 3. 0 4.3 5.4 4.2 5.3 5.9 6. 1 2.7 4.4 2.6 3 2.8 5.8 5.4 10. 1 11. 5 7. 8 7. 7 -1. 7 -1.7 .7 -9.2 10. 1 19. 1 10.8 5. 1 5.4 11.3 12.2 10.1 Chain price index Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) 5.3 1.9 4.4 5.0 5.3 5.0 4. 1 9. 7 9. 3 5. 5 1.8 3.0 3.0 4.4 5.0 5.2 4.9 4.0 5. 9 9. 7 9.2 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross d omestic prodiict of nonfin ancial corp<Drate busi ness (billic>ns of dollars) Current do lar cost a nd profit per unit of outpu t (dollars) i Total cost and 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 _ _ _ _ _ 1972 1973 1974_ __ 1975 1975: I II III... IV... 1976: I II... Current dollars 1972 dollars 392. 1 430.7 452.9 498.4 541.8 560. 6 602. 5 671. 0 752.0 810. 0 870.4 822. 3 851. 1 892. 0 916. 1 949. 0 972. 8 494. 6 532.9 545. 8 581. 6 607. 3 600. 6 619. 3 671.0 720. 4 698. 7 676.8 653. 1 668. 1 688.9 696. 1 713. 9 726. 7 profit 2 0.793 .808 .830 .857 . 892 .933 . 973 1. 000 1. 044 1. 159 1. 286 1. 259 1. 274 1. 295 1. 316 1. 329 1. 341 Capital conComsumption penallowNet ances Indirect sation of with business in3 employ- terest capital taxes conees sumption adjustment 0.066 . 067 . 072 .074 .079 . 088 .094 .093 . 095 . 116 . 143 . 139 . 142 . 143 . 146 . 146 . 147 0.083 .080 .084 .089 .094 . 103 . 110 . 110 . 112 . 123 . 138 .135 .138 . 139 . 140 . 136 . 137 1 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1972 dollars. 2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted 2 places to the left. * Indirect business taxes and nontax liability plus business transfer payments ess subsidies. Corpc rate profi ts with invent<Dry valualAon and capit al consuiription 8tdjustmen ts Total 0.497 0.012 0. 134 . 014 . 134 .513 . 123 .535 . 016 . 124 . 553 . 017 . 589 . 022 . 109 .628 .028 .086 .645 . 029 . 095 .661 .028 . 107 . 032 . 105 .699 . 794 .041 . 085 . 045 . 107 .853 .863 .046 . 076 .847 . 045 . 101 .842 . 045 . 126 .860 . 124 .046 . 869 . 047 . 131 .132 .876 .049 Profits tax liability 0. 055 . 055 . 051 . 058 . 055 . 045 . 048 . 050 . 055 . 061 .059 .046 . 053 . 066 . 068 .072 .074 Profits after4 tax 0. 079 .078 . 072 . 066 . 055 . 041 . 046 . 057 . 050 . 024 . 048 . 030 . 049 .059 . 055 .059 .058 per Compensation ees hour of all employ- Output hour of all employ(1972 dollars) 6. 6252 6. 7773 6. 8731 7. 1406 7. 2109 7. 2423 7. 5311 7. 7981 7. 9847 7. 7426 7. 9687 7. 6778 7. 9584 8. 1231 8. 0968 8. 1846 8. 2885 per ees (dollars) 3. 2957 3. 4781 3. 6761 3. 9483 4. 2401 4. 5468 4. 8579 5. 1579 5. 5832 6. 1470 6. 7949 6. 6242 6. 7446 6. 8426 6. 9619 7. 1116 7. 2595 * With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] National income Period Compensation of employ1 Propri etors' mcom<2 with inventor y valuation anc capital consultip tion adjust ments ees Farm 566.0 396. 5 439.3 622. 2 471.9 655.8 714.4 519.8 571.4 767. 9 609.2 798.4 650. 3 858. 1 715. 1 951. 9 799.2 1, 064. 6 875. 8 1, 135. 7 928. 8 1, 207. 6 904. 0 1,149.7 912. 9 1, 182. 7 935. 2 1, 233. 4 963. 1 1, 264 6 994. 4 1, 304. 7 1, 337. 4 1, 017. 2 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1975: I II III IV 1976: I II 12.6 13.6 12. 1 12.0 13.9 13.9 14.3 18.0 32.0 25.8 24.9 17.9 24. 1 29.2 28.3 21.9 27.5 Nonfarm 44. 1 46. 7 48.9 51.4 52.3 51. 2 53.4 58.1 60.4 61. 1 65.3 63.2 62. 7 66.3 69.0 71.4 72.8 Corpor ate profits with inv<sntory va uation and capital co nsumptioii adjustments Rental with capital consumption adjustment 17.1 18.2 19.4 18.6 18.1 18.6 20.1 21.5 21.6 21. 0 22.4 21.9 22. 3 22.4 22.9 23.3 23. 1 Profits with invc3ntory valuat ion adjusi ment and \without ca pital consum 3 tion adjiistment Total Total 77.1 82. 5 79.3 85. 8 81.4 67.9 77.2 92.1 99. 1 84.8 91.6 69. 0 86.6 105. 3 105.6 115. 1 116.4 73.3 78.6 75.6 82. 1 77.9 66.4 76.9 89.6 97.2 87. 8 103. 1 77.7 97.9 117. 9 119. 1 129.6 131.8 Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment 75.2 80.7 77.3 85.6 83.4 71.5 82.0 96.2 115.8 127. 6 114. 5 94.2 105.8 126. 9 131.3 141. 1 146.2 Capital consumption adjustment Net interest -1. 9 -2. 1 3.8 3.9 -1. 7 3.7 -a 4 3.7 -5.5 3. 5 — 5. 1 1. 5 -5. 0 .3 -6. 6 2.5 -18.6 1. 9 -39.8 -3. 0 -11.4 -11. 5 -16. 5 -8.6 -7. 8 -11.4 -a o — 12. 6 -12. 3 -13. 5 -11. 5 -14. 5 — 14.4 -15. 4 18. 5 21.9 24.3 26.8 30.8 37.5 42.8 47.0 52.3 67. 1 74.6 73. 7 74. 0 74. 9 75.8 78.6 80.3 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. »Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 6.) PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Total personal consumption expenditures 430.2 1965 464.8 1966 490.4 1967 535. 9 1968 579. 7 1969 618.8 1970 _ > 668.2 1971 733.0 1972 809.9 1973 887.5 1974_ 973.2 1975 933.2 1975: I II 960. 3 987.3 III___ IV. .. 1, 012. 0 1, 043. 6 1976: I 1, 064. 7 II 1 FurniTotal durable1 goods Motor vehicles and parts 62. 8 67.7 69.6 80.0 85.5 84.9 97. 1 111. 2 123. 7 121. 6 131.7 122. 1 127.0 136.0 141.8 151.4 155. 0 29. 8 30. 1 29. 7 35.8 37.7 34.9 43.8 50.6 55.2 47.9 53. 2 47.6 49.5 56.3 59.2 68.0 70.4 Total includes other items not shown separately. Retail sales of new pa ssenger cars (nlillions of uiaits) Nondura ble goods D urable goo is and household equipment 24. 7 27. 7 29. 5 32.6 35.0 36.7 39.4 44.8 50. 7 54. 7 57.6 54.6 57.0 58.2 60.6 61.2 62.3 Services Total nondurable1 goods 188.6 204. 7 212. 6 230. 7 247. 0 264. 7 277.7 299. 3 333. 8 376. 2 409. 1 394.4 405.8 414.6 421. 6 429. 1 434. 8 Food 98.9 106. 6 109.6 118. 3 126. 1 136. 3 140. 6 150.4 168. 1 189. 9 209. 5 203. 2 207.8 211. 8 215.2 219.2 223, 1 Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil 33.5 36. 6 38.2 41. 8 45. 1 46.6 50. 5 55. 1 61. 3 65. 1 70.0 66.6 69.3 71.3 73. 0 73.5 73.2 14 7 16.0 17. 0 18.4 20.4 22.0 23.4 24. 9 27. 8 36. 3 38. 9 37.9 38.6 39.2 39.9 40. 1 40.3 Domestics 178. 7 192.4 208. 1 225. 6 247. 2 269.1 293.4 322.4 352. 3 389.6 432.4 416.7 427. 4 436. 7 448.6 463.2 474. 9 8. 8 Imports 8.4 7.6 0. 7 .8 8.5 7.1 8.7 9.3 9.7 7.5 1. 1 .1.3 8. 6 1.0 1.6 1.8 1.6 1. 4 1. 6 1. 7 7. 1 6. 7 6. 3 7. 6 7. 7 1.6 8.9 8.7 1.3 1.5 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1. 7 1. 4 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income increased $6.1 billion (annual rate) in August, following a revised increase of $13.0 billion in July* about one-third of which was the result of a cost-of-living increase in social security benefits. Wage and salary disbursements rose $4.5 billion or about half as much as in July. Farm proprietors' income declined for the second consecutive month. BtLUONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) WLLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 "T5" 600 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 400 400 OTHER INCOME 200 200 100 100 80 80 40 60 40 .tin 1968 11 M I i I 1 1...1 1969 i i i i t I i i i ii 1970 1 1 1 i 11 11 11 t 1971 1972 i i i i I 1 1 i i i i i \\ \ \ 1 1 1 1 1 . 1973 1974 I I 1M I I I 11 I 1975 I I 1 1 I I M I 1 .40. I 1976 *SEASONAllY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE- DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] 3 Wage Rental Total Other ProprietyDrs' income income and Transfer Divi- Personal personal salary labor 12 payinterest of dends income disburse- income income ments5 Farm Nonfarm persons 4 ments ^ 685.2 1968 1969 745. 8 1970 801. 3 1971 859. 1 942. 5 1972 1973 1, 052. 4 1974 1, 153.3 1975 1, 249. 7 1975: Aug.._ 1, 267. 5 Sept___ 1, 277. 1 Oct.... 1, 290. 8 Nov 1, 300. 2 Dec 1, 308. 2 1976: Jan 1, 320. 8 Feb 1, 331. 4 Mar... 1, 341. 9 Apr 1, 352. 5 May___ 1, 362. 9 June 1, 370. 4 July.__ 1, 383. 4 Aug*_. 1, 389. 5 1 COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 469. 5 5146 546. 5 579.4 633. 8 701.3 765. 0 806. 7 813.0 819. 1 828. 5 836. 6 844.0 854. 2 861.4 868.8 876.9 883. 3 883. 1 892.0 896.5 25.1 28.2 32.0 36.2 42.0 48.7 55. 5 62. 5 63.3 63. 9 64 5 65.2 65.8 66.4 67. 1 67.7 68.4 69.0 69.7 70.4 71. 1 12.0 13.9 13.9 143 18. 0 32. 0 25.8 24 9 29. 6 29.4 29.2 28.4 27.3 246 21. 1 20.0 23.3 27.5 31.6 29.2 25.7 51.4 52.3 51.2 53.4 58. 1 60.4 61. 1 65. 3 66.5 67.0 68.3 68.7 69.9 70.6 71.3 72.2 72.7 72.5 73.4 73.8 740 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. 2 Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workmen's compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items. * With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. «With capital consumption adjustment. 18.6 18.1 18.6 20. 1 21. 5 21.6 21. 0 22.4 22. 5 22.4 22.9 22. 9 22.9 23.2 23.4 23.3 23.3 23.4 22.7 23.4 23.2 21.9 22.6 22.9 23.0 246 27.8 30.8 32. 1 32.6 32.9 32.9 32.9 30.8 32.9 33.3 33.0 33.4 33.9 35.9 35. 2 35. 4 49.6 55.9 643 69.3 746 841 101.4 110.7 110.9 112. 1 113.2 1144 115. 5 116.7 117.9 119. 3 120. 0 120. 7 121. 5 123. 0 125.8 59.9 66.5 79.9 94. 1 104 1 118.9 140.3 175.2 179.3 180.7 182. 1 182. 1 183.4 185.3 189.2 191. 3 188. 7 187. 1 186.8 191. 3 192.9 Less: Per- Nonsonal con- farm tributions personal 6 for social insurance income 22.8 26.3 28.0 30.8 342 42.2 47.6 50.0 50.2 50.4 50. 7 51. 0 51.4 53. 1 53. 4 53. 7 54 1 54 4 54 3 54. 9 55. 1 667.5 725.8 780.7 838.0 917.3 1, Oil. 9 1, 117. 3 1, 213. 4 1, 226. 5 1, 236. 1 1, 249. 9 1? 260. 0 1, 269. 1 1, 284 4 1, 298. 6 1, 310. 1 1, 317. 3 1, 323. 3 1, 326. 6 1, 341. 8 1, 351. 2 s Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. 6 Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable income rose at an annual rate of 4.0 percent in the second quarter of 1976. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* {RATIO SCALQ WU4ONS OF DOLIARS* [RATIO SCAL$ 1,200 1,200 400 DOLLARS* 400 DOLIARS* CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 2,000 2,000 1968 1969 1976 1971 1970 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Less: Personal Pertax sonal and income nontax payments Equals: Disposable personal income Less: Personal outlays * Per (japita dispc)sable persona L income Equals : Personal saving Current dollars BiJlions of d ollars 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 626.6 685. 2 745.8 801.3 859. 1 942. 5 1, 052. 4 1, 153. 3 1, 249. 7 82. 1 544. 5 588. 1 97. 1 630.4 115.4 115.3 685.9 742. 8 116. 3 141. 2 801. 3 150.8 901.7 170.4 982.9 168. 8 1, 080. 9 1972 dollars Per cap>ita per- Percent sonal c<msump- change real tion exp enditures inper capita disposable Current 1972 perdollars dollars sonal income Saving as percent of Population disposable (thou-2 persands) sonal income Dollars 503. 7 550. 1 595.3 635.4 685. 5 751. 9 831.3 910.7 996. 9 40.9 38. 1 35. 1 50.6 57.3 49.4 70.3 72.2 84. 0 2, 740 2,930 3, 111 3,348 3,588 3,837 4,285 4,639 5,062 3,371 3,464 3,515 3,619 3,714 3, 837 4,062 3,968 4, 007 2,468 2, 670 2,860 3,020 3,227 3,510 3, 849 4, 188 4, 558 3, 035 3,156 3,234 3,265 3,342 3,510 3,649 3,582 3,607 4,383 4, 503 4,618 4, 724 4, 863 4, 954 3,544 3, 599 3, 626 3, 659 3,731 3,762 3.0 2.8 1.5 3.0 2.6 3.3 5.9 7.5 6. 5 1.0 5.6 7.4 7.7 6.2 7.8 7.3 7.8 — 3.4 20. 9 -6.6 4. 1 6.6 9.6 7.4 7.5 5.4 4.0 6. 9 7. 1 -2.3 198, 712 200, 706 202, 677 204, 878 207, 053 208, 846 210, 410 211, 901 213, 540 Seas onally ad; usted anclual rates 1975:I____ 1, 203. 1 179. 3 II — 1, 230. 3 142.2 III.. 1, 265. 5 174.0 IV-. 1, 299. 7 179.8 1976: I... 1/331. 3 183.8 II _„ 1, 362. 0 189. 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 023.8 956. 7 088. 2 983. 6 091. 5 1, Oil. 1 119.9 1, 036. 2 147.6 1, 068. 0 172. 5 1, 089. 6 67. 2 104. 5 80.5 83.7 79. 5 82.9 4,809 5, 102 5, 105 5, 227 5,347 5, 455 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to3business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are for July 1; quarterly data are for middle of period, interpolated from monthly data. 3,889 4, 078 4,009 4, 049 4, 103 4, 143 212,897 213, 278 213, 805 214, 245 214, 599 214, 926 Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). f ARM INCOME Farm income including inventory change rose $5.7 billion (annual rate) In the second quarter; excluding inventory change the increase was $9.1 billion. BILLIONS 'OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCAU) BHUONS OF DOLLARS* 120 120 100 100 80 80 REALIZED GROSS FARM INCOME 60 60 40 40 V NIT FARM INCOME INCLUDING NET INVENTORY V CHANGE 20 20 10 10 1968 1971 1970 1972 1973 1974 1975 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 1976 COUNOl Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Persona 1 income received [ncome received fro m f armin g by total farm po pulation Realize;d gross Net inc ome per Nett<> farm farm incl tiding neta oper ators Cash receipts from inventory change Period inarketings From From From Produc- Exclud- Includ1 all farm nonfarm Total tion ex- ing net ing net Livesources sources sources penses inven- inven- Current 1967 4 stock Total Crops tory tory 2 dollars dollars and change change products Dollars Biffior is of dollars 3,859 12.8 12.2 1968 44.2 11.3 51.7 24.1 4,013 25.5 12.3 18.7 39.5 13.9 26.9 12.9 4,372 1969. 14.2 56.3 48.2 4,766 42. 1 28.6 14.3 19.6 14.4 4,202 1970_ _ 27.4 58.6 14.2 14.2 4, 790 50.5 29.6 13. 0 21. 0 44.4 13.4 13.2 4,263 15. 3 1971 28. 7 5,030 60.6 30. 6 22. 3 47.4 52.9 146 34.4 1972 17.6 6,504 70.1 61.2 5,288 16. 8 17.8 35. 7 25.5 52. 3 18.7 48.6 19. 5 87. 1 29. 0 29.9 45. 9 1973 95.5 8,817 41. 1 33.3 11, 727 65.6 21. 5 1974. 45. 1 100.2 23. 5 51.3 9,371 92. 6 41. 4 27.8 6,206 72.4 26. 5 45.5 22. 8 22.7 5,482 98. 2 22. 7 1975 42. 9 9, 100 89. 6 25.6 46.7 75. 5 1975:1 II III..__ 88. 4 99.6 105.2 99. 6 80.0 91. 1 96. 5 90.8 36.3 43. 9 45. 0 46. 4 43. 7 47.2 51. 5 44.4 73. 4 76. 1 76.8 75.7 15. 0 23. 5 28. 4 2a 9 18. 5 24 8 30. 0 29. 1 6,590 8,830 10, 680 10, 360 4,070 5,380 6, 320 6,060 1976: I..... 100. 0 110.8 90.9 101, 5 46.0 50. 4 44. 9 51. 1 79. 3 81.0 20.7 29,8 22.7 28. 4 8, 150 10, 190 4,740 5,860 IV, II 1 Cash receipts from marketings, Government payments, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Inventory of crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year. 13 Based on Census of Agriculture definition of a farm. The number of farms is eld constant within a year. 77-368°—76 4 Income in current dollars divided by the index of prices paid by farmers for family living items on a 1967 base. Source: Department of Agriculture. CORPORATE PROFITS Profits before fax rose $5.1 billion (annual rate) in the second quarter, according to revised estimates, while profits with inventory valuation adjustment rose $2.2 billion. BILLKDNS OF DOUARS BftUONS OF DOLLARS 1976 1968 -SOURCE, DCfARTMENT OF COMM£*Cf COUNCH Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally Profil bs (before tax) wit h invent ory vahuition adjustn ient» Dome stie industries N onfinanc ial Period Total 2 WholeManu- sale Total Finan3 faccial Total and turretail mg trade 1965 73.3 70. 1 7. 5 62.5 38. 3 7.9 1966 78.6 75.9 8.5 67. 4 41. 6 8. 0 1967 75.6 72.6 9.0 63. 6 37. 9 8. 9 82.1 1968 41. 2 10. 1 78.9 10.4 68. 5 1969 77.9 74.2 62. 9 11.3 10. 1 36. 8 1970 66.4 62. 6 50. 1 27. 1 9. 4 12.6 1971 72. 4 14. 1 32. 4 76.9 11. 7 58. 2 1972 84. 7 89.6 15. 4 69. 3 40. 6 13. 3 1973_ 97.2 74. 1 90. 4 44. 1 14, 7 16. 2 1974 87.8 14. 1 12. 4 76.7 36.9 62.6 1975 _ .._ 103.1 84. 1 97.0 12. 9 46. 4 20. 9 1975: 1 adjusted annual rates] Profits after tax Inventory valuation adjustment Profits before tax Tax liability Total Dividends Undistributed profits 75.2 80. 7 85. 6 83. 4 71.5 82.0 96.2 115. 8 127. 6 114. 5 30. 9 33. 7 32. 5 39.4 39.7 34.5 37.7 41.5 48.7 52. 4 49. 2 44. 3 47. 1 44. 9 46. 2 43.8 37.0 44.3 54. 6 67. 1 75. 2 65.3 19. 1 19.4 20. 1 21. 9 22. 6 22. 9 23. 0 24. 6 27. 8 30. 8 32. 1 25.2 27.6 24. 7 24. 2 21. 2 14. 1 21. 3 30. 0 39.3 44. 4 33. 2 — 1. 7 — 3.4 -5.5 — 5. 1 -5.0 -6.6 -18. 6 -39. 8 — 11.4 TT 7? 3 — 1. 9 __ ^ j_ 9 1 II 77.7 97. 9 117. 9 119. 1 72. 1 91. 7 111. 4 112.7 13.9 12. 5 12. 1 12. 9 58. 2 79.2 99. 3 99. 8 29. 7 43. 5 57. 0 55. 3 14.5 19. 6 24. 4 ! 25.0 ; 94. 2 105. 8 126. 9 131.3 40. 2 44. 8 54. 8 57. 2 54. 0 61. 0 72. 1 74. 1 31. 7 31. 9 32. 6 32. 2 22. 3 29. 1 39. 5 41.9 -16.5 -7.8 -9.0 -12. 3 1976:1 II 129. 6 131.8 121. 9 125.0 14. 0 13.8 107.9 111.2 61. 2 66. 4 29. 0 26.6 141. 1 146.2 61.4 63. 5 79. 7 82. 7 33. 1 34.4 46.6 48.3 — 11. 5 -14.4 III IV.... 1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 2 Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. 8 Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau ol Economic Analysis. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT Business fixed investment rose at an annual rate of $4.5 billion in the second quarter, while residential outlays increased $4.0 billion. Inventory investment, at $16.0 billion, was up $1.2 billion from the first quarter level. BILLIONS OF DOIMRS* IRATIO 5CAl$ 120 _ NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT KLUONS OF DOLLARS* {RATIO SCALQ -GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT too 80 STRUCTURES I i 40 i i i I I 1 I !T 1974 1 I I I 1 t I BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 80 RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT 40 -CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES -20 -40 40 1974 1972 t I . I 1972 1976 I I t 1973 I •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE \ I ! \ \ 1976 1975 COUNCHOf ECO [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Noiiresident ial fixed investm*mt Period 1965 1966 1967 1968.. 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1975:1 II III IV. _ 1976:1 II Gross private domestic investment 112.0 124.5 120. 8 131.5 146.2 140.8 160.0 188.3 220. 0 215. 0 183.7 172. 4 164. 4 196. 7 201.4 229.6 239.2 Struc tures Total 71.3 81.4 82. 1 89.3 98.9 100.5 104. 1 116. 8 136. 0 149. 2 147. 1 148.0 145. 8 146. 1 148. 7 153.4 157.9 Total Nonfarm Total Nonfarm 26. 1 29.2 29. 5 31.6 35. 7 37.7 39.3 42. 5 49. 0 54. 1 52. 0 53. 1 51. 2 51. 8 52. 1 53.2 54.9 25. 1 28. 1 28. 2 30.4 34,3 36. 1 37. 8 41. 1 46. 9 51.8 49.8 50. 9 48.8 49 6 49.9 51.0 52.5 45. 1 52.2 52.6 57. 7 63. 3 62. 8 64. 7 74, 3 87.0 95. 1 95. 1 94. 9 94. 6 94. 3 96. 6 100.2 103.0 41.2 47.9 48. 0 53.4 58. 9 58. 1 59. 9 69. 1 80. 1 87. 2 86. 9 86. 5 86.2 86.7 88.0 91. 3 94. 1 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Prod ucers' dur able equip»ment Resid ential fis ed investment Prrt Total 31.2 28.7 28.6 34.5 37.9 36. 6 49. 6 62.0 66. 1 55. 1 51. 2 46. 6 48. 6 52. 6 57.0 61.3 65.3 Nonfarm structures Farm dueers* struc- durable tures equipment 29.9 27.4 27.2 33. 1 36. 3 35. 1 47. 9 60. 3 64.3 52.7 49. 0 44. 9 46. 7 0.6 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 6 54.2 58.6 62.9 1.4 1.2 .9 5a2 10 8 5 6 10 0. 7 .7 .7 .8 .9 .9 1.0 1. 1 1. 2 1. 3 1.3 1. 2 1.3 1. 4 1.4 1. 5 1. 5 Change in business inv entories Total 9.5 Nonfarm 8.5 14.3 10. 1 14.5 17.9 10.7 -14 6 -22.2 -30. 0 —2. 0 -4.3 14.8 16.0 14.7 12.2 -17.6 -25.6 -31.2 -4.2 -9.5 12. 7 17.3 7.7 9.4 3.8 6.4 9.4 9.4 7.6 9.2 3.7 5.1 as EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Business plans to increase capital spending nearly 7K percent in 1976, according to the survey conducted in late July and August; this is almost the same as the expected increase reported in the April-May survey. BILUONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 180 BILUONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 180 SEASONAUY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 160 1'<50 140 140 •120 120 TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT 100 80 NONMANUFACTURING X 60 40 40 MANUFACTURING 1 i t 1968 20 i 1969 1971 1970 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 j/'$EE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW. SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Starts o f plant •EJcpenditurc s for plan t and equ ipment Miinufacturi ng Period Total » Total Dur- Non- able goods durable goods and equ ipment proje ets 3 N onmanuf acturing Total Mining Com- Transportation Public utilities munication 6.05 6. 04 4. 93 5.72 6.03 6.66 7.57 7. 04 7. 30 7. 05 7.86 7. 60 6. 55 8. 24 11. 61 13. 14 15. 30 17. 00 18. 71 20. 55 20. 14 22. 80 20. 28 19. 52 19. 79 20.91 21. 91 21, 85 8.30 10. 10 10. 77 11, 89 12. 85 13. 96 12.74 13. 87 13. 36 12. 50 12. 95 12. 22 12. 54 12. 62 7. 17 6. 08 23. 09 24. 09 Commercial and 2 Manufactur- ! ing Public utilities other 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973_ 1974_ 1975 4 1976 1975: I II III IV___ 1976: I 11 75. 56 79. 71 81. 21 88. 44 99. 74 112. 40 112. 78 31.68 31. 95 111.80 47.39 46.82 114. 72 118. 12 49. 21 50. 64 15. 96 15. 80 14. 15 15. 64 19. 25 22. 62 21.84 28. 36 22. 86 22. 59 21. 01 21.07 21. 63 22. 54 III 4 ___ 122. 96 IV 4 ___. 127. 03 53. 81 56. 29 24. 08 24. 80 121. 15 114, 57 112. 46 112. 16 29.99 31. 35 38.01 46. 01 47. 95 52. 77 49. 05 48. 78 15. 72 16. 15 15. 84 15. 72 18. 76 23. 39 26. 11 29. 42 26. 20 26. 19 26. 38 25. 75 27. 58 28. 09 67.48 1.86 1. 89 2. 16 2. 42 2.74 3. 18 3.79 3. 89 3. 76 3. 78 3.82 3.82 3. 83 3. 83 29. 73 81. 49 69. 16 70. 74 S. 87 4. 02 43. 47. 51. 57. 61. 88 76 22 09 73 66.39 64.82 68.38 65. 63. 64. 64. 65. 52 68 76 98 51 1 Excludes agricultural business; real estate operators; medical, legal, educational, and cultural service; and nonprofit organizations. These figures do not agree precisely with the nonresidential fixed investment data in gross national product estimates, mainly because those data include investment by farmers, professionals, institutions, and real estate firms, and certain outlays charged to current account. 2 Includes trade, service, construction, finance, and insurance. 8 Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during 10 16. 05 16. 59 18. 05 20. 07 21. 40 22. 05 20. GO 80. 77 20. 82 20. 83 20. 34 20.44 20. 68 20. 94 48.24 15. 16 17. 20 22. 22 28. 60 38. 13 45. 74 34. 50 12. 12 12. 80 11. 29 12. 16 11. 64 12. 77 5. 9. 14. 5. 3. 8. 34.07 29. 18 28. 00 35. 21 47. 57 52. 49 34 19 82 84 43 56 35. 02 36. 56 given period. * Expenditures estimates based on expect ed capit al expenditures as reported by business in lale July and August 197G. NOTE.—Annual total is the sum of unadjusted quarterly totals. Estimates (as noted in footnote 4) include adjustments when necessary for systematic biases in expectations data. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE After seasonal adjustment, the civilian labor force, employment, and unemployment showed little change in August. Since December 1975, the civilian labor force has increased by 2.4 million, a 3.8 percent annual rate, while employment has risen 2.6 million. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS 100 1968 100 1969 1970 1971 1973 1972 t t 1 i I t t i i i t i l l i i i ii I I I i i 1 I i M 1974 1975 1976 *1« YEARS OF AGE AND OVER! SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF 8CONGMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over] Noninstitutional population Period 1971 1972* 1973* 1974 1975 Civilian Unememploy- ployment ment 142, 596 79, 120 145, 775 81, 702 148, 263 84, 409 150, 827 85, 936 153, 449 84, 783 U tiad justed 1975: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1976: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug 4,993 4,840 4,304 5,076 7,830 Total labor force Civilian (includ- labor ing force Armed Forces) 86, 929 84, 113 88, 991 86, 542 91, 040 88, 714 93, 240 91,011 94, 793 92, 613 Civilian eiuploymeD Total 79, 81, 84, 85, 84, Unempl<:>yment Nonagricultural AgriPart-time culfor ecoTninl tural nomic reasons l 2,440 3,387 75, 732 3,472 78, 230 2,408 3,452 80, 957 2,311 3,492 82, 443 2,709 3,490 3,380 81, 403 Seas<>nally adj listed Total 15 weeks and over Labor force participation rate (per-2 cent) 4,993 4,840 4,304 5,076 7,830 1, 182 1, 158 812 937 2,483 61.0 61. 0 61. 4 61.8 61.8 153, 154, 154, 154, 154, 824 052 256 476 700 86, 612 85, 274 86, 023 85, 556 85, 536 7,696 7,522 7, 244 7,231 7, 195 95, 397 95, 298 95, 377 95, 272 95, 286 93, 212 93, 128 93, 213 93, 117 93, 129 85, 288 85, 158 85, 151 85, 178 85, 394 3,464 3,512 3,408 3,301 3,236 81, 824 81, 646 81, 743 81, 877 82, 158 3,234 3, 291 3, 361 3,353 3,243 7,924 7, 970 8, 062 7,939 7,735 2,878 2,934 2, 719 3,004 3, 080 62.0 61.9 61.8 61.7 61.6 154, 155, 155, 155, 155, 155, 156, 156, 915 106 325 516 711 925 142 367 84, 491 84, 764 85, 588 86, 584 87, 278 88, 460 89, 608 89, 367 8, 174 8,033 7, 525 6,890 6,304 7,655 7,577 7,323 95, 624 95, 601 95, 866 96, 583 96, 699 96, 780 97, 473 97, 634 93, 484 93, 455 93, 719 94, 439 94, 557 94, 643 95, 333 95, 487 86, 194 86, 319 86, 692 87, 399 87, 697 87, 500 87, 907 87, 981 3, 343 3, 170 3, 179 3,417 3,329 3,294 3, 341 3, 424 82, 851 83, 149 83, 513 83, 982 84, 368 84, 206 84, 566 84, 557 3,482 3,262 3,266 3,248 3,382 3, 080 3,012 3,047 7, 290 7, 136 7,027 7, 040 6,860 7, 143 7,426 7,506 2, 785 2, 515 2, 294 2,035 1,998 2,215 2,317 2, 387 1 61.7 61.6 61.7 62. 1 62. 1 62. 1 62.4 62.4 *Data beginning January 1972 not strictly comparable with prior data because of adjustment to 1970 Census data, which added about 800,000 to the civilian npmnstitutional population, 333,000 to the civilian labor force, and 301,000 to civilian employment. A further adjustment in March 1973 added 60,000 to the labor force and to employment. 120 702 409 936 783 * 1 Persons 2 at work in nonagricultural industries. Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of age and over. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES TTic seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased in August by 0.1 percentage point to 7.9 percent. The rate increased for adult women and teenagers but declined for adult men. PIRGENT* (SfASONAULY AWUSH0) PERCENT* {SEASONALLY ADJUSTED} w- A TEENAGERS / (16-19J . Ntf 10 1972 *1972 1976 1975 *UNEMPtOYMENT AS WlCENT OF OVUAN LABOR FOJKX IN GROUP SPECIFIED. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of IABOR 1W6 COUNCll Of ECONOMIC AOVISfRS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Uneniploymeiat rate (ipercent c>f civiliari labor fc>rce in gi oup) Total (all civilian workers) Period 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1975: Aug_ Sept Oct Nov 5.9 5. 6 _ 4.9 5.6 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.5 Dec as 1976: Jan 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.5 Feb Mar Apr__ May June... July Aug 1 !_ . 7. 3 7. 5 7.8 7.9 By s ex and a ge Men Women Both 20 20 sexes years years 16-19 and and years over over 4.4 4.0 3.2 3.8 6.7 6.8 7.2 7.2 7.1 6.6 5. 8 5.7 5.6 5.4 5i6 &0 6. 1 5.9 5.7 5.4 4. 8 5. 5 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.9 7.9 8. 0 7. 5 7.5 7.3 7.3 6.8 7. 1 7.6 7.7 16. 9 16.2 14. 5 16. 0 19.9 20. 7 19.4 19. 8 19.0 19. 6 19. 9 19.2 19.1 19. 2 18. 5 18.4 18. 1 19.7 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part-time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. 12 I5y select ed group»s By color White 5.4 ExpeBlack rienced wage Houseand hold and other salary heads workers 9.9 5. 0 10. 0 5. 0 7. 8 9. 9 13.9 14.3 14.4 14.3 13.9 13. 8 13.2 13.7 12. 5 13. 0 12. 2 13. 3 12.9 13. 6 4.3 7.8 7.8 8.0 7.8 7.6 7. 1 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6. 8 7. 1 7. 1 8.9 5.7 8.1 3.6 3.3 2.9 3.3 5.8 5.7 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.7 7. 4 5. 1 5. 3 4. 5 5. 3 8.2 8. 3 8.3 8.4 8. 3 7.4 7.1 7. 2 7. 2 7.2 7.4 7.5 4.9 5.0 4.8 4.8 5. 1 5.4 5.2 Fulltime workers 5.5 5. 1 4.3 5. 1 8. 1 8.1 8.4 8. 5 8. 3 7.9 7.3 7. 1 7.0 7.0 6.8 7.4 7.3 7.5 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Parttime workers 8. 7 8.6 7.9 8.6 10.3 10. 3 9.9 10.4 10.2 10.5 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.7 10.2 9.0 10.7 9. 9 Labor force time lost (per-l cent) 6.4 6.0 5.2 6. 1 9. 1 8.9 9. 1 9.4 9.3 8,9 8.4 8.1 &2 8.2 8.1 7.7 7.9 8.2 SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS The small increase in unemployment (80,000) in August was accompanied by a decline in the proportion of job losers and an increase in the proportion or new labor force entrants. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT 60 60 AV V LESS THAN 5 WEEKS /* T X, JOB LOSERS 40 40 REENTRANTS 20 20 JOSLEAVERS NEW ENTRANTS 1973 1974 i i i i t 1 i i i .1 i 1975 i 1976 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1973 1974 1975 1976 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Perceiit distrit>ution of unemPerceiit distrib ution of iinem- State programs Insured 1 pic yment by durati on * unem- Special Pi oyment by reasoia unemploy1 TJnem.— ment, ployAU T)lr>v— JP J all ment j Period 27 Insured ment Less Job Job Reen- New 5-14 15-26 weeks unem- Initial regular benefit3 (thouenthan 5 proclaims and ploy- claims sands) losers leavers trants trants weeks weeks weeks grams 2 (unadover ment (unad- justed) justed) We<jkly avei age, thou sands 1971 4,993 46. 3 29.4 10.4 2, 150 44. 7 12.6 11.8 31.6 13.3 295 2,608 197243.2 4,840 13. 1 29.8 13.9 45.9 11.6 1,848 30.1 12. 3 261 2, 192 1973 4,304 38.7 15.7 30.7 7.8 1, 632 14.9 51. 0 30.1 11.0 246 1,793 1974 5,076 43.4 14.9 28.4 13.3 7.3 2,262 50.6 31.0 363 11. 1 2,558 1975 55.4 7,830 10.4 23. 8 10. 4 15.2 3,973 37.0 31.3 16. 5 472 4,942 1975: Aug.. 7,924 56.2 22. 9 9.7 30.3 11. 1 34. 1 17.7 473 17.9 4,130 4,576 1, 502 Sept- 7, 970 58.2 21.9 10.0 34.4 9.9 29.8 16.5 463 19. 3 4,070 1,312 4,238 Oct._ 8,062 56.0 10.2 23.4 10.4 36.9 29.9 15.1 445 18. 1 3,940 4,039 1,284 Nov__ 7,939 55.6 10.9 23. 1 10.5 32.5 30.4 15.8 392 21.2 3, 576 4, 120 1,340 Dec._ 7,735 51.7 11.3 25.8 33.2 11.3 28. 1 17.7 362 20.9 3,242 4,461 1,411 1976: Jan___ 7,290 48.3 11.8 27.6 12.3 35.7 15.2 27.6 21.5 2, 961 371 4,962 1,482 Feb.. 7,136 12. 1 49. 1 26.6 12. 1 38. 1 26.3 13.6 22. 1 2,859 343 4, 721 1,428 Mar.. 7,027 50.2 10.9 26.6 12.2 38. 3 28.0 13.3 20.4 2,759 4, 366 350 1, 339 Apr.. 7,040 49.6 11.8 26. 0 12.7 43.2 27.3 9.7 361 19.8 2,717 3,917 1, 125 May_. 6,860 49. 6 12. 6 25. 5 12. 3 42. 0 28.6 12. 2 17.2 2, 862 398 3, 564 993 June. 7,143 51. 0 12. 4 25.3 11. 3 36.9 31.9 12.9 18. 3 2, 947 397 3, 458 1, 145 July*. 7,426 51. 5 12. 9 24.9 10. 7 40.4 27.8 15.3 403 16. 5 3,086 3,642 1, 379 Aug *_ 7,506 13. 1 25.2 49. 3 12. 4 37. 0 31.8 15.0 16. 3 3,203 417 3, 446 1,327 1 Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding. 2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, and Puerto Kico), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (TJCFE), and railroad (BE) programs. Also includes «Federal - * _ _ _ ! and . _ „ State «... extended , , , ,benefit " „ . programs. Does ^ 'not * .include . * , , FSB (Federal ._ . a Supplemental Benefits) and SUA (Special Unemployment Assistance). a FSB and STJA. These programs started January 1975 and regular reporting began March 1975. «' -^ , X ^ T ^ / T , , T ^ ^ Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 239,000 in August The growth in jobs in goods-producing industries was retarded by strike activity in mining. Employment increased most rapidly in durable goods manufacturing, trade, services, and State and local government. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCAIQ MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 90 ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 18- WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE 80 GOVERNMENT \ ..i*"-"" A. *••***-' ^aj 14 SERVICES SERVICE-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 60 ,.««?"""" 12 22 iMANUFACTUf ?ING 50 20 ^-*^~ ,..-•••'" f \ \ ^+ ****"* ~ 18 III I 1 I I 1 ! I I 1 1 t 1 1 1 ) | 1 1 I 1 \ I 1 1 ! I 1 I t 1 I J 1 ! If I J 1 f I | I ! I 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 IK GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 30 - ' **1ii—7—] ^ ""-" CONTRACT CONS1'RUCTION ^ - 20 f! I! | J 1 J M I I I t 11 ! I 1 1 M 1 1972 1973 M l I I 1 I M| J-L 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1 | M 1 I I I I 1 I1 1 1 I 1 I M M I 1974 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE, DEPART/KENT OF LABOR 1975 I 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 ft 1976 ADVISERS COUNCIL OF CONOMIC i [Thousands of wage and salary workers;1 seasonally adjusted] Groods-prc>ducing industries i Period 1971. .. 1972 1973 1974 1975 1975: Aug... Sept.. Oct... Nov.. Dec— 1976: Jan... Feb- . Mar. _ Apr__May_. June_ July* Aug'.. Total nonagricultural employ- Total 2 ment 71, 222 73, 714 76, 896 78, 413 76, 985 77, 023 77, 310 77, 555 77, 574 77, 796 78, 179 78, 368 78, 630 78, 963 78, 923 78, 943 79, 192 79, 431 22, 820 23, 546 24, 727 24, 697 22, 549 22, 418 22, 601 22, 669 22, 657 22, 743 22, 914 22, 901 23, 013 23, 144 23, 123 23, 091 23, 094 23, 113 Contract construction 3,639 3,831 4, 015 3,957 3,457 3,415 3,432 3,402 3,409 3,406 3,428 3,375 3,366 3, 399 3,386 3, 362 3,369 3,343 Service-pr oducing industric;s Trans- Whole- Finance, Gover nment portainsursale tion ance, Services and Non- Total State and and retail Total Durable durable Federal and public trade real goods goods local utilities estate Ma nufactui ing 18, 572 19, 090 20, 068 20, 046 18, 347 18, 254 18, 417 18, 493 18, 482 18, 568 18, 722 18, 763 18, 877 18, 973 18, 964 18, 950 18, 937 19, 021 10, 597 11, 006 11, 839 11, 895 10, 679 10, 563 10, 650 10, 661 10, 653 10, 717 10, 820 10, 846 10, 937 11, 000 11,046 11, 046 11, 035 11, 103 7,975 8,084 8,229 8, 151 7,668 7,691 7,767 7,832 7, 829 7, 851 7,902 7,917 7,940 7, 973 7,918 7,904 7,902 7,918 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they 14 48, 401 50, 167 52, 169 53, 715 54, 436 54, 605 54, 709 54, 886 54, 917 55, 053 55, 265 55, 467 55, 617 55, 819 55, 800 55, 852 56, 098 56, 318 4,457 4, 517 4,644 4,696 4,498 4,466 4,467 4,476 4,496 4,477 4,494 4, 517 4,498 4,510 4,498 4, 477 4,492 4,495 15, 352 15, 975 16, 674 17, 017 16, 947 17, 016 17, 045 17, 043 17, 010 17, 080 17, 233 17, 326 17, 386 17, 444 17, 439 17? 460 17, 559 17, 612 3,802 3,943 4,091 4, 208 4,223 4,218 4,239 4,246 4, 248 4,264 4,266 4,266 4,276 4,293 4, 278 4,297 4,300 4,312 11, 903 12, 392 13, 021 13, 617 13, 995 14, 050 14, 113 14, 157 14, 188 14, 229 14, 307 14, 360 14, 422 14, 498 14, 514 14, 557 14, 617 14, 694 2,696 2,684 2,663 2,724 2,748 2,756 2,765 2,767 2, 761 2, 755 2, 746 2,740 2,732 25 730 2, 727 2, 725 2, 721 2, 739 10, 192 10, 656 11, 075 11, 453 12, 025 12, 099 12, 080 12, 197 12, 214 12, 248 12, 219 12, 258 12, 303 12, 344 12, 344 12, 336 12, 409 12, 466 are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments, s Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Eepartuient of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Averag e gross hourly <earnings Aver age weekly ]aours Total private nonagricultural 1 Period 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 19731974 1975 sao _ _ „ 1975: Aug. - Sept Oct. Nov Dec June July* Aug » Total 37.8 37.7 37. 1 37.0 37. 1 37.1 36.6 36. 1 40.6 40.7 40.6 39.8 39.9 40.6 40.7 40.0 39.4 36.2 36. 1 36.2 36.3 36.4 36.5 36.4 36.2 36. 1 36.2 36. 1 36.2 36.2 1976: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Manufstcturing Adjusted h ourly earnings indexJ —tc>tal private nonagrieultural Overtime Total private nonagricultural l Manufacturing 3.4 $2.68 $2.83 3.6 3.0 2.9 3.5 3.8 3.2 2.6 2.85 3. 04 3.22 3.44 3. 67 3. 92 4. 22 4. 54 39.7 39.8 39.8 39.9 40.3 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 ao 4.57 4.60 4.63 4.68 4.68 4.86 4.88 4.90 4.93 4.96 40.5 3.0 3.1 3.2 2.5 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.0 4.73 4.75 4.77 4.78 4.83 4.84 4.87 4.88 5.00 5.04 5.08 5.06 5.13 5. 16 5.21 5.24 4a3 40.2 39.4 40.2 40.2 40.2 39.9 3. 6 Percent ehtange from a year <earlier * Index, li)67=100 Current dollars 3.01 3.19 3.36 3.57 3.81 4.08 4.41 4.81 Current dollars 1967 dollars 3 100.0 106.3 113.3 120.8 129.4 137.8 146.6 15&6 172.7 174.6 175.2 176. 7 4.8 6.3 6.6 6.6 7.1 6.5 6.4 100.0 102.0 103.2 103.9 106.7 110.0 110.1 107.4 107.1 a2 a9 107. 3 107.2 107.4 107.6 107.3 m.2 17a6 1.9 2.0 1.2 .7 2,7 3.1 .1 -2.5 — *\ 8.8 a2 a5 .1 .2 .5 1. 1 .8 8.0 7.8 7.3 7.6 7.7 i.a 1. 1 ai 7.9 107.5 179.6 180.8 181. 4 182. 2 183.7 184.5 185.6 18&5 1967 dollars ioai 108. 2 108. 3 ioas ioas ioae ioae 1. 2 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.8 1.2 7;1 7.3 as —PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURJIIi INDUSTRIES [For production of nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average gross weekly earnings Total pri vate nonagricu tural * Period Current dollars 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 .... ....... 1975: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec . ... « 1976: Jan . Feb „„._ Mar Apr May June,. July*.. — Aug" 1 s Manufacturing 1967 dollars 3 3 Retail trade 5 Current dollars iCurrent dollars5 1967 dollars $101. 84 107. 73 114.61 119. 46 127. 28 136. 16 145. 43 154.45 163. 89 $101. 84 103. 39 104.38 102. 72 104.93 108. 67 109. 26 104.57 101. 67 $114. 90 122. 51 129. 51 133. 73 142. 44 154.69 166. 06 176. 40 189. 51 $154. 95 164.49 181. 54 195. 45 211. 67 222. 51 235. 69 249. 08 265. 35 $70. 95 74.95 78.66 82.47 86.61 90. 99 95. 57 101. 04 10a22 3. 1 5.8 6.4 4.2 6. 5 7. 0 6. 8 6,2 0.2 1.5 1.0 — 1.6 2.2 165. 43 166. 06 167. 61 169.88 170.35 101. 62 101. 57 101. 89 102. 65 102. 37 192. 94 194.22 195. 02 196. 71 199. 89 267. 91 268. 64 267. 91 272. 69 278. 26 10a 85 108.84 110, 14 110. 83 110. 81 5. 9 -2.5 —2.2 ' —1.7 .3 .1 172. 65 172. 90 172.67 172. 56 174.85 174.72 176. 29 176. 66 103. 32 103.35 103. 03 102. 53 103. 28 102. 72 103. 15 102. 83 202. 50 281. 24 282. 73 272. 48 283. 50 284.58 285. 30 285. 94 285. 24 112. 45 112. 08 112. 06 113. 43 113. 37 112,64 Iia25 2oa 11 204. 22 199. 36 206. 23 207. 43 209.44 209. 08 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing. § Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index. * Monthly changes based on indexes to 2 decimal places. 77-368°—76 Contract construction Percent chsinge from a year eiarlier, total prhfate nonagnci] Itural 6 112. 93 ai as .- - 5. 8 7. 6 7.1 8.2 ai 7.9 7. 5 as 7.6 7.9 as ae .5 —4.3 -2.8 13 1. 7 1. 6 1.4 2. 1 16 2.3 L1 6 Includes 8 eating and drinking places. Based on unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statisttob 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, PRIVATE BUSINESS ECONOMY Hours of al pers ons2 Outf rot1 Output ] >erliour of aUp ersons Compe nsation per I iours Unit labor COsts Implici t price defla tor* Total Private Total Private Total Private Total Private Total Private Total Private prinonprinonprinonnonnonnonprivate private private vate farm vate farm vate farm farm farm business farm business business business business business business business business business business business Period 1967= 100; quai•terly datii seasonsilly adjusl;ed 1965 1966_ 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 --- ___ — 1974: III IV 1975: I II III IV -_ .. 1976: III* 92.7 97.9 100. 0 105.0 108.0 92.3 97.9 100.0 105.2 108.2 98.1 100.3 100.0 101.7 104. 5 96.8 100.0 100.0 102 1 105. 3 94.5 97.6 100. 0 103.2 103.4 95.4 97.9 100.0 103. 1 102.7 88.4 94.7 100. 0 107.6 115. 1 89.1 94.5 100. 0 107.3 114,2 93.6 97.0 100. 0 104.3 111.3 93.4 96.6 100. 0 1041 111.2 944 97.4 100. 0 104 1 109.1 943 97.0 100.0 1040 109.0 107. 1 110. 1 117. 5 124.5 120.8 107. 1 110. 0 117. 8 124.9 121. 1 102. 102. 106. 110. 110. 8 3 0 1 6 104.0 103.7 107.6 112.2 112. 7 104. 2 107. 6 110.9 113.0 109.2 103. 0 106. 1 109.5 111. 3 107. 4 123. 3 131. 5 138.9 150.3 164.3 121.9 129.9 137.4 148. 1 162.0 118.4 122.2 125.2 132. 9 150.4 118.4 122. 5 125.5 133.0 150.8 1142 119. 2 123.2 130.4 143.8 1143 119. 4 122. 9 128.0 142.1 118.0 118.0 105.9 107. 9 111.4 109.4 180.2 177.7 161.7 162.4 157.5 156.4 120.6 117.6 120. 9 117.8 110.9 109.3 113.3 111. 5 108.7 107.6 106.7 105.6 166.7 170.7 164.0 168. 3 153.4 158.6 153.7 159.3 146.0 150.5 1446 149. 2 114. 2 116. 7 120; 1 121. 1 114.3 116.5 119. 9 121. 2 105. 7 1048 105, 7 107. 1 107.9 106.7 107.4 109.2 108.0 111. 3 113.6 113.2 106. 0 109.2 111. 6 111.0 176. 0 179.0 181.3 185. 0 173. 1 176.4 179.3 182.2 162.9 160. 8 159.6 163.5 163.3 161. 6 160.7 1642 154.6 155.9 158.4 160, 9 154 0 155. 0 157. 0 159.4 124.1 125.8 124.3 125.9 107.7 108.1 110.4 110.4 115.2 116.3 112. 6 114. 1 189. 8 193.4 186.4 190.5 164.7 166.2 165.6 167.0 161. 8 163. 8 161.1 162.5 1.7 2.9 3.1 41 47 Perceiit change ; quarterlyp- data at seasonal] y adjuste d annual rates 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969_._ 6.6 5.6 £2 5.0 2.9 a9 0.5 3.7 ai -.3 7.0 5.6 7.6 7.0 3.4 6. 1 5.8 7.3 6.5 4. 3 6.7 3.6 41 6.8 2.0 3.1 2.7 41 48 :8 -.3 3.7 4.3 ;4 3.3 3.1 1.9 -3.4 :2 3.0 3.2 1.7 -3.5 7.2 6.6 5.7 8.2 9.3 6.7 6.6 5.8 7.8 9.4 6.4 3.2 2.5 6.2 13.2 6.5 3.4 2.5 6.0 13.4 47 43 3.4 5.8 10.3 49 45 2.9 41 11.0 6.7 6.0 2.1 5.2 2.9 3.1 2.3 -;3 1.7 2.7 3.7 3.3 ;0 2.1 3.2 3.4 3.3 2.5 3.2 .-2 — 1.2 2.9 2.6 2.1 ai 0.5 a4 1970 1971 1972..._ 1973 1974 -.9 2.8 6.8 5.9 -3.0 -1.0 2.7 7. 1 6.0 -3. 1 -1. 6 —.4 3.6 3.9 :4 1975 -2.3 -2.6 -4.2 -4.3 2. 1 1.8 9.7 9.7 7.5 7.7 9.5 10.1 1974: III IV -3.9 -9.4 -3. 8 -9.9 -1.4 5.7 —.6 -6.2 -2.6 -4.0 -3.2 -3.9 12.6 9.9 11.5 10.9 15.5 14.5 15.2 15.5 13.2 12. 9 13.4 13.5 1975: I_ II III IV -11.2 -12.7 -3.3 3.5 5. 2 -12.4 -4.2 2. 5 6. 9 1.6 12.7 8.5 — 1.6 1.3 12.6 9.3 -2.2 iai 12.3 3.6 -11.3 7. 9 12. 1 4.5 6.9 5.2 11. 3 -5. 1 -3.0 10. 1 10. 4 -42 a3 11.8 7.9 6.8 6.6 9.0 11.3 3.5 6. 6 6.6 13.5 2.6 5.3 6.2 1976: I II* 10.2 5. 5 10.5 5.5 2. 5 1.5 4.4 —.1 7; 5 4.0 5.8 5.6 10.9 7; 7 9.5 9.1 a6 3.5 3.3 2.1 5.2 43 3.6 a9 1 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars. 2 Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in production, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on3 establishment data. Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed. 16 3.2 — 9 £t 9 ^^ j£, * Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. NOTE.—Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production rose 0.5 percent in August, the same as the revised-upward increase in July. Increases for both months were concentrated in durable materials, ousiness equipment, and construction products. INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE) 180 INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE) UTILITIES AND MINING PRODIiaioN TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 140 160 120 140 too p-^\^TT^ *-r/~\ 120 .,'.-^- 1 1 1 1 1 1n11 1 1972 1973 1975 1974 t UTiLJT1ES ^^ *s~~ ^*«*ViA•i MINir IG 1976 100 160 MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION 1 M M 1 1 1 III M i n i u m 1 1 1 1 1 f 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 f 1 11 1 1 1973 1972 1974 r i f f i f f f 1 11 1976 1975 PERCB4T {RATIO SCALE) -NONDURABLE 140 90 120 ^MANUFACTURING CAPACITYUTILIZATION RATE 80 70 100 j |ijjjj i m u t 1 1 1 y fjt y ij fit fit l j t ; t|litJt f m f 1972 1 1973 I 1974 I 1975 I 1976 60 1972 1976 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE. SOAK) OF GOVERNORS OF TOE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Total iiadustrial prodiiction i Percent Period Index, change 1967= from 100 year earlier 1967 proportion 100. 00 1970 -3. 0 107.8 1971 1.7 109. 6 1972 9.2 119. 7 1973 8.4 129.8 t 4. 1974 129.3 1975 -8.9 117.8 1975: Aug_>. — 8. 1 121. 0 Sept -7.4 122. 1 Oct..., 122.2 — 5. 6 Nov 123. 5 — 1.1 Dec... 124.4 4.3 1976: Jan 9. 1 125.7 Feb 13. 0 127. 3 Mar 14. 7 128. 1 Apr 128.4 14.0 May 14. 0 129.6 June 11.7 130. 0 July *___..___ 130. 7 10.4 Aug»___^ 8.6 131.4 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Seasonally adjusted] Indus try prodiiction inc exes, 1967=100 M anufactur ing Total Durable Nondurable Mining 87.95 106,4 108.2 118.9 129.8 129.4 116.3 119.7 121. 4 121. 2 122. 7 123.6 125.2 127.0 127. 9 128. 5 129. 6 130. 1 131.0 131. 5 51.98 102. 3 102.4 113.7 127.1 125. 7 109. 3 112.3 113. 5 112. 7 113.4 114.4 115. 8 117. 9 119. 0 120. 1 121.7 122.3 123.9 124. 9 35.97 112. 3 116.6 126. 5 133. 8 134.6 126.4 130. 5 132. 9 133. 6 136. 2 136. 9 138. 4 140. 2 140. 7 140.7 140. 9 141. 1 141. 2 141. 1 6.36 112.2 109.8 113. 1 114. 7 115. 3 112. 8 111.6 111. 6 113. 8 114.2 112, 9 113. 6 112. 7 113. 9 113. 5 113. 0 113. 4 111. 7 113. 2 1 Output as percent of capacity. f Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Annual data are averages of Quarterly data. 1 Quarterly data are for last month in quarter. Annual data are averages of four nonthly indexes. Utilities 5.69 124. 5 130. 5 139.4 145.4 143. 7 146. 0 148. 3 144. 6 143. 8 148. 8 147. 2 152. 0 152. 5 151. 4 150. 8 153. 0 151. 6 151. 3 151. 6 1 Manuf acturing capacity iutilization rate, percent l Federal Reserve seri<2 S 2 ComWharTotal merce3 ton manu- Mate- series series 2 rials facturing 78.3 75.0 78.6 83.0 78.9 68. 7 84.3 83. 1 88.0 92.5 87.7 73.5 81 80 83 86 83 77 69.0 74.8 79 70.7 77.6 79 81.9 72. 1 78.9 82 83. 7 73.0 80.4 82 84.7 87.9 85.3 89.6 95.8 91.3 79.3 Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), and Wharton School of Finance. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1967=100, seasonally adjusted] Prod ucts Final p roducts Total NonDurable durable goods goods Total 1967 proportion 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1976: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July » Aug * Equip ment Corisumer go ods Period ... ._ 47.82 106.2 109.6 105.3 106.3 115.7 1244 125.1 118. 2 120.8 121. 5 120. 9 122. 3 123.5 123.9 125.3 126.4 126.3 127. 3 127.5 127.7 127.9 27.68 105.9 109.8 109.0 114 7 1244 131. 5 128.9 1240 127. 5 129.0 m.7 131. 1 132. 3 133. 1 134 9 136. 1 136. 1 137.4 137.5 137.2 137.2 7.89 111. 1 115. 0 106. 1 118. 8 133.8 146.2 135.3 121. 4 129.2 132.2 131. 9 132. 5 1340 134 7 137.9 140.4 141. 1 143. 2 1443 142. 2 142. 1 lateral ediate prod ucts 19. 79 103.9 107.7 110. 1 113. 1 120.6 125.6 126.3 125. 1 126.9 127.6 127. 4 130. 6 131. 5 132. 5 133.9 1344 1340 135. 1 1349 135.3 135.3 Total Business Total 20.14 106. 5 109.3 100. 1 947 103.8 1145 120.0 110.2 111.4 111. 3 110.0 110.0 111. 5 111.2 112. 1 112.9 112. 9 113. 5 113. 9 1146 115.3 12. 68 105. 5 112. 5 107.0 1041 12. 89 106. 3 112.9 112.9 116.7 126.5 137.2 135.3 123. 1 127.9 127. 6 128.0 129. 3 129. 9 133.6 135. 3 134 9 134 7 135. 0 135.8 136.6 137. 7 nao 1342 142. 4 128.2 129.9 129.2 128. 8 129.6 131.6 131.0 132. 6 134 0 1341 134 6 135.2 136.2 137.0 Materials Construction supplies 6.42 106.6 112.3 111. 0 116.8 128.4 139.8 134 5 116. 3 121. 3 122. 3 122,7 123. 1 124 1 126.8 129. 6 128.7 128.0 130.9 131. 9 132.7 134 1 S9.29 106.5 112.5 109.2 111. 3 122.3 133.9 132.4 115.5 119. 0 121. 0 122. 0 123. 1 123.3 125.3 127.3 12a2 129.2 130.6 131.0 132.0 133.2 Sup* ptementary group t Energy total 12. 2S 125,5 126. 7 1245 124 5 127. 1 126.6 12a8 127. 5 12a6 i2a2 129.3 129.5 128.4 129.0 [1967=100, seasonally adjusted] Non durable inanufac ;ures Duirable m*mufactui res Primaryr metals Period Total 1967 proportion 1968 1969 1970 1971— 1972 1973 1974 1975__ 1975: Aug... Sept Oct. Nov Dec. 1976: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July » Aug» Iron and steel 4^21 Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery Total Motor vehicles and parts Lumber and products Apparel products Print- Cheming icals and and pubprodlishing ucts Foods & 57 1043 — 113.8 106.6 100.2 112.1 126.7 123.1 96.4 103.2 112.6 1047 96. 1 107. 1 122.3 119.8 95.8 6.9S 105.6 107.9 102.4 103.5 112. 1 1247 124 2 109.9 9.18 101.8 109.3 1044 100.2 116.0 133.7 140. 1 125. 1 8.06 105.5 111.9 108. 1 107. 7 122.2 143.1 143.8 116. 5 &27 111.1 108.4 89.5 97.9 108.2 118.3 108.7 97.4 4.60 120.3 116.5 92,3 118.6 135. 8 148.8 128.2 111.1 1.64 105.5 107. 9 105.6 113. 8 120.8 126.0 116.2 107.6 S.S1 102.9 106. 7 101.4 104 7 109.4 117.3 114 3 107.6 4.72 103.2 107.4 107.0 107. 1 112. 7 118.2 118.2 113.4 7.74 109.5 118.4 120.4 125.9 143.6 154 5 159.4 147.3 8.75 102.6 106. 1 108.9 112.8 116.8 120.9 124.0 123.4 97.7 97.9 95.4 98. 1 92.6 92.7 93.4 92.0 96. 5 89. 1 113.8 115.3 1144 116. 3 117.3 126.2 125.5 125.4 126. 6 128.6 nao 120.2 120.1 120. 1 122. 7 105.0 105.9 1044 104 7 106. 7 123. 7 126.8 126.5 127. 1 130. 1 113.6 115.8 116.8 114 1 116. 4 112.8 111.5 115.9 115.3 114 7 113.2 115.4 118.4 150.8 1544 157.5 161.9 163.3 125.8 126. 2 126. 4 98.1 103.9 101. 4 105.4 113. 2 112. 7 117. 5 121. 0 92.9 100.9 97.7 103. 5 110. 7 112. 0 115.6 118. 0 116. 6 120.9 120.2 121.5 121.4 124 0 1246 126.0 129.0 131.5 132. 9 133.5 134 0 133.5 1343 1349 124.7 126.5 127. 8 130. 0 131.8 132.0 130.9 130.8 105.8 109. 0 111.2 110. 6 112. 9 112.6 112. 7 113.5 126.7 135.2 140. 8 141. 3 144 3 146.5 146.7 147.0 123. 5 123. 9 121. 1 122.8 123. 0 120.3 123.0 123.8 128. 0 126. 3 126. 1 130.3 126.6 120. 0 121. 0 121.0 122.0 120. 5 119. 7 121.4 121. 0 162.9 167.6 170.6 168.7 166.6 169.4 170.3 129.2 130.8 12a3 129.2 131.2 129.8 131.0 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 Transp<>rtation equipment na 3 121.2 12&-8 12a5 NEW CONSTRUCTION 3onstructionL contracts1 Private Total new construction expenditures Period Resid ential Total Total1 Commercial and industrial New housing Other Federal, State, and local Commer- Total value cial and industrial index (1967= floor space 100) (•millions of square feet) Bil lions of doll ars 1969 .. 1970. 1971 _ _ _ 1972 1973 1974 1975 ..« 93.9 94.9 110.0 124.1 137. 9 138. 5 132. 0 66.0 66.8 80.1 93.9 105. 4 100. 2 93. 0 33.2 31.9 43.3 54.3 59. 7 50.4 46. 5 16.2 16.3 17.0 18.1 21. 7 23.8 20. 8 25.9 24. 3 35. 1 44.9 50.1 40.6 34.4 16.6 18.6 19.8 21.5 24. 0 28.0 2a 1 29.9 30.2 32. 5 25. 7 39.0 2a o 3a 3 Seasonally adjusted Seasonally / adjusted armual rates 1975: July....... Adg_ . Sept. Oct —. Nov Dec 1976: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June » July* 133. 1 132. 2 136. 3 136 2 138.0 137.8 136. 9 139. 3 144.5 142.0 140. 1 143. 7 141.5 92. 0 92. 1 95.4 95. 6 97.3 98. 1 99.5 102.9 106.4 104. 1 103.8 104 7 105.0 33.4 33.6 35.7 37. 5 3a 9 39.9 39. 3 41. 1 43.8 44.2 43.8 45.2 46.5 46. 1 46.3 48. 4 49.4 50.4 52. 1 53.1 55.6 57.5 56. 0 54. 9 56. 3 57.8 1 Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. 8 F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971 for floorspace. 20.5 20. 4 20.3 20. 0 20. 1 19.8 19.0 20.6 21. 0 19.8 19.3 18.7 18. 1 12a7 123. 1 145.4 165.3 179.5 169.7 166.0 25.3 25.3 26. 7 26. 2 26. 8 26. 2 27.4 26.6 28.0 28.2 29.7 29.7 29. 1 41. 1 40. 1 40. 9 40. 6 40.7 39.8 37.4 36.4 165 208 157 166 148 137 183 170 185 189 205 187 184 sao 37.9 36.2 38.9 36.6 883 743 727 / 854 1,010 840 569 Seasonally , adjusted annual rates 631 519 601 649 504, 609 462 496 653 648 657 693 676 Note.—New construction expenditures data prior to 1973 not comparable with later data. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] *Jew private housing uniibs Units started, by type of striicture Period 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973. 1974_ 1975 — - Total 1 unit 1, 466. 8 1, 433. 6 2, 052. 2 2, 356. 6 2, 045. 3 1, 337. 7 1, 160. 4 810. 6 812. 9 1, 151. 0 1, 309. 2 1, 132. 0 888. 1 892. 2 2-4 units 85. 0 84.8 120. 3 141. 3 118.3 68. 1 64.0 5 or more units 571.2 535.9 780.9 906.2 795. 0 381.6 204.3 New private homes Vacancy rate for Homes for rental sale at housing end of units period 1 (percent) 2 Units authorized Units completed 1, 323. 7 1, 351. 5 1, 924. 6 2, 218. 9 1, 819. 5 1, 074. 4 939. 2 1, 399. 0 1, 418. 4 1, 706. 1 1, 971. 5 2, 013. 8 1, 691. 7 1, 296. 8 448 485 656 718 620 501 544 222 220 287 409 450 402 378 1,267 1,315 1, 115 1,386 1,329 1,213 1,299 1,399 1,266 1,360 1, 355 1,248 573 571 610 660 641 573 679 573 628 541 582 609 378 384 389 381 378 379 384 389 394 399 406 410 Homes sold 5.5 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.0 Seasonally adjusted armual rates 1975: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1976: Jan-__ Feb Mar Apr May June 9 July 9 Aug » _ _ _ — 1 1,264 1, 304 1,431 1,381 1,283 1,236 1,547 1,417 1,367 1,422 1,510 1,391 1,542 979 966 1, 093 1, 048 962 957 1,295 1, 110 1, 055 1,065 1,139 1,130 1, 195 Seasonally adjusted. 2 Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. 67 76 103 79 77 70 62 80 76 94 76 69 63 218 262 235 254 244 209 190 227 236 263 295 192 284 998 1, 092 1, 111 1, 127 1,091 1, 147 1, 165 1, 188 1, 082 1, 158 1, 150 1, 215 1,298 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. &2 5.4 5.5 5.8 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—TOTAL JIND TRADE Business inventories increased $1.6 billion in July, with manufacturing stocks accounting for more than half of the increase. Business sales declined slightly. According to the advance survey, retail sales rose in August, following a decline in July. ., BILUONS Of DOLLARS* "(RATIO SCALE) B1U40NS OF DOLLARS? (RATIO SCAL$ 80 RETAIL INVENTORIES 70 «0 RETAIL SALES 50 , 40 ">~ s** y*'* 30 1 M 1 Ih I IiIlIl I I I RATIO">* II I l l l 1 I I M I II M M I 1973 1972 1974 1975 1976 -INVENTORY-SALES RATIO 100 1.40 1972 1972 1976 1975 ^SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Betail Whol esale 2 Sales 1976 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total b\isiness * Period I Inventories 3 bales Inventories 8 In ventorieg5 s DurNonable durable goods goods stores stores TVvf-al TVvf al DurNonable durable goods goods stores stores Invent(>ry-sal ral io 4 Total business * Retail Millions of doll ars, seasjonally zadjusted 1970-1971. 1972 1973 1974 1975 1975: July Aug__ Sept Oct Nov Dec* 1976: Jan Feb... Mar Apr. May June^ July *> Aug» _ 104, 112, 124, 143, _. 163, 168, 169, 172, _. 173, 174, 174, 176, 179, 182, 185, 187, 186, 189, 188, 736 315 289 823 991 009 007 150 448 847 085 710 027 329 488 074 341 007 303 175, 561 184,711 197, 692 224, 401 271, 050 264, 770 263, 345 264, 662 265, 087 266, 867 266, 064 264, 770 266, 285 267, 979 269, 637 270, 599 272, 548 276, 227 277, 816 20, 583 22, 327 24, 862 30, 400 37, 344 36, 583 36, 567 37, 166 37, 604 37, 449 37, 018 37, 360 38, 159 38, 816 39, 094 39, 530 39, 386 40, 780 40, 594 27, 290 29, 695 32, 817 38, 302 46, 564 45, 115 44, 653 45, 501 45, 625 45, 715 45, 554 45, 115 45, 645 46, 307 46, 398 46, 826 47, 799 48, 645 48, 705 31, 294 34, 071 37, 365 41, 943 44, 815 48, 702 49, 411 49, 774 49, 644 49, 995 50, 552 51, 734 51, 592 52, 601 53, 344 53, 696 52, 868 53, 983 53, 797 55, 025 1 The term "business" also includes m anufacturing (see page 21). 28 Monthly average for year and total for month. 4 Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted, For annual periods, rati oofweightec average inv entories to £iverage mo tithly sales; for monthly data, rat io of inventories at end o month to sales for m onth. 20 9,524 10, 985 12, 472 14, 190 13, 943 15, 060 15, 372 15, 410 15, 417 15, 772 15, 904 16, 690 16, 730 17, 397 17, 403 18, 046 17, 419 17, 803 17, 679 18, 347 21, 770 23, 086 24, 893 27, 754 30, 872 33, 642 34, 039 34, 364 34, 227 34, 223 34, 648 35, 044 34, 862 35, 204 35, 941 35, 650 35, 449 36, 180 36, 118 36, 678 46, 626 52, 571 57, 156 65, 229 74, 082 73, 081 71, 503 72, 578 73, 049 74, 642 73, 839 73, 081 73, 610 74, 344 75, 089 75, 652 75, 710 76, 671 77, 287 20, 345 23, 864 26, 056 29, 593 34, 649 33, 592 32, 270 33, 324 33, 471 33, 813 33, 712 33, 592 33, 510 33, 490 33, 920 33, 994 33, 936 34, 150 34, 909 26, 281 28, 707 31, 100 35, 636 39, 433 39, 489 39, 233 39, 254 89, 578 40, 829 40, 127 39, 489 40, 100 40, 854 41, 169 41, 658 41, 774 42, 521 42, 378 1.64 1.61 1.53 1.46 1. 50 1.59 1.56 1.54 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.50 1.49 1.47 1.45 1.45 1.46 1.46 1.48 1.47 1.47 1.46 1.46 1.54 1.49 1.45 1.46 1.47 1.49 1.46 1.41 1.43 1. 41 1.41 1.41 1.43 1.42 1.44 * Be vised. Source: Be partment o f Commerce (Bureau c)f Economic; Analysis and Bureau of the Census MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND NEW ORDERS Manufacturers' inventories increased $0.9 billion in July. Unfilled orders rose again in July, but at a slower pace than in recent months. Shipments declined slightly and new orders were down almost 1 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BilUONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 200 -1NVENTORIES- 160 120 40 80 DURABLE GOODS 2 0 i r i > ill t i n l i t i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I T 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 . . i n 111 40 NONDURABLE GOODS BJLLIONS Of DOLLAR$*(RATIO SCALE) 20 RATIO* 220 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1975 1976 INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO 2.00 1.80 160 1.40 1.20 1972 1973 1974 1975 1972 1976 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMIRCi 1973 1974 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Marlufaeturers' new 01•ders1 Durab le goods Capital NonNongoods durable Total Total Durable goods durable Total indusgoods goods tries, nondefense Millie>ns of dollars, seaso]aally adjusted 101, 645 66, 768 34, 877 52, 146 27, 514 7,055 24, 632 102, 445 66, 050 36, 395 55, 754 29, 773 7,324 25, 981 107, 719 70, 218 37, 501 63, 015 34, 368 8,487 28, 648 120, 870 79, 441 41, 429 73, 992 41, 253 10, 310 32, 738 150, 404 97, 967 52, 437 83, 511 44, 502 11, 494 39, 009 146, 574 95, 754 50, 820 81, 351 40, 048 10, 261 41, 302 147, 189 98, 189 49, 000 83, 304 41, 435 10, 728 41, 869 146, 583 97, 199 49, 384 85, 137 42, 176 10, 392 42, 961 146, 413 96, 640 49, 773 85, 482 42, 256 10, 214 43, 226 146, 510 96, 215 50, 295 86, 336 42, 307 10, 689 44, 029 146, 671 95, 953 50, 718 86, 351 41, 988 10, 690 44, 363 146, 574 95, 754 50, 820 86, 754 42, 837 10, 156 43, 917 147, 030 95, 664 51, 366 88, 083 43, 177 10, 351 44, 906 147, 328 95,696 51, 632 90, 201 44, 975 10, 710 45, 226 148, 150 96, 193 51, 957 93, 389 47, 895 10, 984 45, 494 148, 121 96, 133 51, 988 94, 090 47, 790 11, 530 46, 300 149, 039 96, 579 52, 460 95, 378 49, 565 11, 664 45, 813 150, 911 97, 616 53, 295 95, 596 49, 926 11, 835 45, 670 151, 824 97, 826 53, 998 94, 803 48, 721 13, 243 46, 082 47, 655 11, 694 Manufa<3turers' shipments J Manufaci,urers' inv entories2 Period NonTotal Durable goods durable goods 1970 52, 859 28, 229 1971 55, 917 29, 948 1972 62, 062 33, 489 1973 71, 480 38, 806 1974 81, 832 42, 744 1975 82, 724 41, 527 1975: July.. 83, 029 41, 354 Aug — 85, 210 42, 444 Sept.. 86, 200 43, 192 Oct... 87, 403 43, 607 Nov.. 86, 515 42, 352 Dec... 87, 616 43, 681 1976: Jan___ 89, 276 44, 570 Feb.. 90, 912 45, 700 Mar .. 93, 050 47, 546 Apr _. 93, 848 47, 741 May.. 94, 087 48, 321 June.. 94, 244 48, 475 July.. 93, 912 47, 779 Aug*. 47, 931 24, 629 25, 969 28, 573 32, 674 39, 089 41, 197 41, 675 42, 766 43, 008 43, 796 44, 163 43, 935 44, 706 45, 212 45, 504 46, 107 45, 766 45, 769 46, 133 * Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales. 2 Book value, end of period. * End of period. < For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly Manufacturers' unfilled ®rders3 77, 093 75, 081 86, 608 117, 034 137, 328 120, 659 123, 545 123, 477 122, 761 121, 697 121, 530 120, 659 119, 468 118, 757 119, 093 119, 340 120, 624 121, 974 122, 870 Manufacturers' inventory—< shipments ratio4 1.89 1.82 1.69 1.58 1. 64 1.80 1.77 1.72 1.70 1.68 1.70 1.67 1.65 1.-62 1.59 1.58 1.-58 1.60 1.62 shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; 21 WHOLESALE PRICES PRICES In August, the wholesale price index declined 0.3 percent (0.1 percent after seasonal adjustment). Prices of farm products and processed foods and feeds declined 3.4 percent (2.9 percent seasonally adjusted). Industrial commodity prices were up 0.5 percent (0.7 percent seasonally adjusted). INDEX, 1967« 100 (RATIO SCALE) 220 INDBC 1967*100 (RATIO SCAl^ FARM PRODUCTS AND f I PROCESSED FOODS AND FEEDS ! \ j 120 120 100 too 1968 1976 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOAUC ADVISERS [1967=100] All commodities Period 1968. 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975.. .... „_ 1975: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 1976: Feb. __.„. Mar Apr May .. June July Aug 102. 5 106.5 110.4 113. 9 119. 1 134.7 160. 1 174.9 176. 7 177.7 17R9 178. 2 178.7 179.3 179. 3 179. 6 181.3 181. 8 183. 1 184. 3 183. 7 Farm products Indusand trial processed commodfoods ities and feeds 102.4 102. 5 108. 0 106.0 111. 7 110. 0 114.0 113. 8 117.9 122.4 159. 1 125.9 177.4 153.8 184. 2 171. 5 Unadjusted 172.2 189.0 190.4 173.1 174. 7 190. 5 175.4 186. 1 176. 1 186. 0 184. 6 177.3 182.0 178.0 178.9 180.3 183.7 180.0 184. 9 180.4 181. 3 187. 5 188. 1 182.6 181. 7 183. 6 Special ggroupings Farm products Processed foods and feeds 102. 5 109. 1 111. 0 112.9 125. 0 176. 3 187. 7 186. 7 102. 2 107.3 112. 1 114. 3 120.8 148. 1 170. 9 182. 6 192. 7 196.9 199.9 196. 1 197.2 192.6 187. 7 185. 9 193.8 194.9 195.4 193.4 187; 7 184.8 185.3 186.6 184. 3 181.8 178. 3 175. 5 175.9 179.3 181.6 182. 4 180.8 175. 6 1 Excludes crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs, plant and animalfibers,oilseeds, and leaf tobacco. 22 Crude materials i Inter- Producmediate er finmate-2 ished rials goods 102. 0 102. 6 103. 5 106. 1 106,9 110. 6 110.0 111. 9 118.8 122. 7 114. 3 116. 6 119. 5 131. 1 118. 9 155. 2 128. 1 123. 5 141. 0 159. 5 219. 1 178. 6 162. 5 225. 1 Seas onally ad; usted 178.2 163. 1 226. 5 232, 9 179.4 164. 3 231.4 181. 6 166. 3 227.4 183. 3 167. 1 235.4 167. 9 184.6 185. 2 236. 0 169. 1 230. 0 185.7 170. 0 236. 5 186. 3 170. 7 171.3 242.6 186.7 171.4 242. 6 186. 5 172. 1 187. 8 246. 1 172. 9 255. 5 188.7 190. 1 173. 2 255. 7 Consunler finished goods ex<eluding fo<>ds Total 102. 1 1046 107.7 111.2 113. 5 118.6 138.6 153. 1 153. 9 155.4 157. 0 158.2 158. 9 159. 1 159.4 159. 1 159.0 159. 0 160.0 161.2 162. 1 NonDurable durable 102.2 102.2 1040 105. 0 107.0 108.3 110.9 111.3 113. 2 113.6 115.8 120. 5 146.8 126.3 138.2 163.0 137. 8 138. 8 140.7 141. 8 141. 9 142. 5 142. 8 143. 1 142.9 142. 9 143. 5 143.5 143. 9 1644 166. 3 167. 9 169. 0 170. 1 170.2 170. 4 169.7 169.9 169. § 170.8 172.6 1742 - Includes supplies and components; excludes intermediate materials for food nanufacturing and manufactured animal feeds. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES In August, the consumer price index rose 0.5 percent (also 0.5 percent seasonally adjusted). Food prices increased 0.2 percent (0.3 percent seasonally adjusted). Nonfood commodity prices rose 0.6 percent (also 0.6 percent seasonally adjusted) and services prices were up 0.6 percent (also 0.6 percent seasonally adjusted). INDEX, 1967*= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 220 INDEX, 1967 «100 (RATIO SCALE) 220 1968 1969 1971 1970 1972 1973 1974 1975 ] 1976 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISiKS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [1967=100] Commodities less food Services All commodities 103. 7 108. 1 112. 5 116.8 119.4 123. 5 136. 6 149. 1 105.2 112.5 121.6 128.4 133. 3 139. 1 152. 1 166. 6 All items Food .. 104.2 .. 109.8 116. 3 121.3 125. 3 133. 1 147. 7 161.2 103. 6 108.9 1975: Aug.... Sept Get Nov... Dec 162.8 163.6 164.6 165. 6 166.3 178. 1 177.8 179.0 179.8 180. 7 150. 7 151. 4 152.2 152.6 152.8 1976: Jan.... Feb_ Mar Apr May... June July... Aug 166. 7 167. 1 167.5 168.2 169. 2 170. 1 171. 1 171.9 180.8 180. 0 178.7 179.2 180.0 180. 9 182. 1 182. 4 152.3 152. 7 153. 3 154.2 155. 5 156.5 157. 1 158.0 Period 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1149 118.4 123. 5 141.4 161.7 175.4 Food Comeaodities le ss food All Food at home Food away from home 103. 7 108.4 113. 5 117.4 120.9 129.9 145. 5 158. 4 103.6 108,9 114.9 118. 4 123. 5 141.4 161. 7 175.4 103.2 108.2 113. 7 116.4 121. 6 141.4 162. 4 175. 8 105.2 111.6 119.9 126.1 131. 1 141.4 159.4 174.3 167.4 169.1 170. 1 172.0 173.1 160. 1 160.6 161. 5 162.2 162.9 177. 5 178. 0 179.6 180.6 181.6 178. 1 178.4 180.2 181. 2 182. 1 175.3 176.4 177. 5 178.6 179.5 174.9 176. 1 177.2 177.7 178.4 179.5 180.7 181.8 163. 1 162.7 162.4 163.1 164. 3 164.9 165.6 166.4 181. 2 179. 4 177. 9 178.9 180. 6 181.0 181. 2 181.8 181.4 178. 6 176. 5 177.7 179. 5 179. 8 179.8 180.3 180.9 182.4 183. 4 184.0 185. 0 186. 0 187.1 187.8 Unac justed Services All Durable Nondurable 103.7 108. 1 112. 5 116.8 119.4 123.5 136.6 149. 1 103. 1 107.0 111.8 116. 5 118.9 121.9 130.6 145.5 104.1 108.8 113. 1 117. 0 119.8 124.8 140.9 151.7 105.2 112.5 121.6 128.4 133.3 139.1 152. 1 166.6 150.7 151. 2 151. 7 152.2 152.8 147. 0 147.6 148. 1 148.5 149. 2 153.4 153.7 154.4 154.8 155. 3 167.6 169.0 170.0 171. 7 172.8 153. 1 153. 5 153. 9 154.4 155. 3 156.0 156.9 157.9 149. 7 150. 6 151. 7 152. 7 153. 6 154. 1 155. 0 155. 7 155.6 155. 7 155. 6 155.7 156. 6 157. 4 158.4 159. 6 174. 7 176. 0 177. 2 178.0 178. 8 179. 9 181.0 182.0 Seasonal! y adjusted Source: Department of Later, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN WHOLESALE PRICES Percen t change from pre ceding l perio d; season ally adjus>ted Industrial commodities Farm products Processed foods and feeds _ _ 1.0 2.8 4.8 2.2 4.0 6.5 15.4 20.9 4.2 -2.7 4.4 8.4 -4,7 8.1 18. 7 36.1 -1.9 5.5 — 1. 2 3.0 6.8 .8 4.7 11.6 20.3 20.9 — 3.8 1.9 2.7 3.9 3.6 3.2 3.6 10.7 25.6 6.0 1975: Aug.. Sept-. Oct.. Nov.. Dec_. ;9 .9 1. 1 .1 .3 1.5 2.2 1.5 — 1.9 .6 1.3 .3 .7 -1.2 -1.4 .7 .9 1.2 .7 .6 1976: Jan... Feb___ Mar.. Apr May.. June_ July__ Aug.. —.2 —.4 .2 .8 .3 .4 .3 -. 1 -2.3 -2.5 -1.0 4.2 .6 .3 — 1.0 -2.9 -1.9 -1.6 .2 1.9 1.3 .4 —.9 -2.9 Period 1967. 1968_ 19691970_ 1971 1972 19731974 1975 All commodities Percent a aange fro m 3 mon£ is earlier; Percent cjhange from 6mojat is, earlier; seasonsilly adju sted annus•d rates season ally adjusted annua 1 rates AH commodities .4 .1 .3 .3 .1 .5 .7 ;7 Farm products Processed foods and feeds 6.9 10.8 12.2 8.9 6.5 15.2 29.7 22.8 7.2 .6 8.7 11.3 9,3 -1. 1 .9 -1.1 -1.8 2.5 5.5 6.6 4.5 2. 7 -13.8 -16.1 -21.0 2.5 16.2 22. 1 -.8 -14.0 -16.6 -17.8 -12.4 -7.3 2.3 14.6 15.6 3.4 -12.6 Industrial commodities All modities 5.1 8.0 11.8 11.9 10.8 3. 2 3.0 2.9 3.6 5.2 7.8 Processed foods and feeds Industrial commodities 5.7 8.6 9.0 7.9 26.0 34.6 26.0 11.2 14.2 3.6 9.0 6.6 3.7 1.6 3.3 5.0 7.2 8.4 9.4 6,4 3.8 2.3 1.7 2.1 2.3 3.5 4.1 -5.1 -10.9 -6.0 — 1.2 -1. 8 2.9 -4.5 -9.8 -9.9 -7.7 -2.9 9.5 ae 7.3 4.4 Farm products .7 2.8 .1 .8 .0 8. 1 6.9 5.1 3.7 3.4 4.1 5.3 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. »Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted). CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES Percen t change from preceding perio d; seasontally adjussted * Period All items Food Commodities less food Percent c lange fro m 3 mont as earlier; Percent c aange frc>m 6 months earlier; season?illy adjussted annu al rates seasonsilly adju sted annual rates Services All items Food Commodities less food Services All items Food Commodities less food Services 3.0 4.7 6. 1 5. 5 3.4 3.4 8.8 12.2 7.0 1.2 4.3 7.2 2.2 4.3 4.7 20. 1 12.2 6. 5 3. 1 3.7 4.5 4.8 2.3 2. 5 5. 0 13. 2 6. 2 4.0 6.1 7.4 8.2 4. 1 3.6 6.2 11.3 8. 1 1975: Aug... Sept... Oct- — Nov... Dec— . .4 .4 .6 .6 .5 -.2 .3 .9 .6 .6 .6 .3 .3 .3 .4 .4 .8 .6 1.0 .6 8. 5 7.4 5.8 6.8 7.3 12. 1 8. 0 4. 1 7.2 8.3 7.8 7.5 5.2 4.0 4.3 6. 7 7.4 7.6 10.2 9.3 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.7 7.4 7.6 8.9 10.3 9. 6 8.2 7.0 6.4 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.5 7. 1 7. 1 8.4 8.4 1976: Jan. _ _ Feb__. Mar Apr May... June__ July... Aug... .4 .1 .2 .4 .6 .5 .5 .5 _. 2 -1. 0 -.8 .6 1.0 .2 .1 ;3 .2 .3 .3 .3 .6 .o .6 .6 1. 1 .7 .7 .5 .4 .6 .6 a6 6. 5 4. 4 2.9 2.9 4. 9 6. 1 6.3 6.0 3. 6 -2. 6 -7.9 -5.0 2. 7 7. 2 5.2 2.7 3. 7 3.5 2.9 3.4 4.8 5. 6 6.6 6.9 11.5 10.4 10.6 7.8 6.5 6. 2 6. 9 7.4 6. 1 5. 6 5. 1 4.7 4. 6 4. 5 4.6 5.5 3. 9 2 2 — 1 -8 0 -7 0 2.7 4.5 3.8 3. 6 3.6 4. 1 4.2 5. 0 5.8 9. 6 10. 3 9. 9 9.6 8.4 8.4 7. 3 6.9 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 i Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted). 24 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers declined 4 percent in the month ended August 1 5. Contributing most to the decrease were lower prices for meat animals, feed and food grains, and oil-bearing crops. Prices paid decreased slightly. Both the actual and the adjusted parity ratios dropped. INDEX, 1967«10Q (RATO SCALE} PRICES RECBVED (ALL FARM PRODUCTS) PRICES PAID (ALL ITEMS, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGf RATES) 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1976 1975 J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES, ON 1910-14=400 BASE. SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNC*. Of fCONOMIC ADVISERS Prices received by farmers Period All farm products Crops Prices paid by farmers All items, Livestock interest, ProducFamily and living tion taxes, and products wage rates items items Index, 1967=100 Parity ratiol Actual Adjusted 2 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 102 107 110 113 125 179 192 186 100 97 100 108 114 175 224 201 104 117 118 118 136 183 165 172 103 108 112 120 125 144 166 181 104 109 114 118 123 133 151 166 100 104 108 113 121 146 166 182 73 73 72 69 74 91 85 75 79 79 77 73 79 94 86 76 1975: Aug 15 Sept 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 194 199 195 184 186 212 210 203 189 188 180 189 189 181 184 184 186 185 185 185 169 169 170 171 171 186 189 186 184 186 78 79 77 73 74 79 79 78 74 74 1976: Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 June 15 July 15 Aug 15 186 187 185 189 191 196 19C 187 190 192 194 193 198 211 215 201 183 183 178 186 185 184 179 175 190 191 192 193 193 195 196 195 172 172 173 174 174 175 177 177 191 193 194 197 196 199 199 198 72 72 71 72 73 74 73 71 72 72 71 72 73 74 74 71 1 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates on 1910-14=100 base. 2 The adjusted parity ratio reflects Government payments made directly to fanners. Source: Department of-Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK Over the past 3 months (May to August) Mi and M£ have grown at annual rates of 4.0 and 9.6 percent, respectively/ in the previous 3 months, the corresponding rates were 9.5 and 11.5 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) (RATIO SCALE) 200 200 1968 1969 1970 1976 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: 6OARD OF (GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ACJViSERS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Over all meas ures l Deposi ts at co mmercia banks Period M, 1971: Dec.. 1972: Dec__ 1973: Dec.. 1974: Dee__ 1975: Dec,. 1975: Aug_ Sept.. Oct._ Nov«_ Dec._ 1976: Jan™ Feb... Mar_. Apr.... May.. June.July.. Aug *_ 1 233. 8 255.3 270.5 283. 1 294. 8 293. 2 293. 6 293.4 295. 6 294. 8 295. 1 296, 5 298. 0 301. 7 303.3 303. 1 304.8 306.3 M3 471. 7 525.3 571.4 612.4 664. 3 650. 6 652. 9 655.8 662. 1 664.3 670.2 678.5 683. 4 691. 9 697.2 700.3 707.6 713.4 M, 745.1 844.9 919.5 981.6 1,092.9 1,060.6 1,068.1 1,075.8 1,086.5 1,092.9 1,103.7 1,117.2 1,127.4 1,141.2 1,151.5 1,159.2 1,171.9 1,184.4 Currency 52.6 56. 9 61. 5 67. 8 73. 7 71.9 72. 0 72. 6 73.4 73.7 74.2 75. 1 75. 7 76.7 77.4 77. 6 78. 2 78. 6 Total Large CDs Other Deposits at nonbank thrift institutions 271. 2 313. 6 364.4 419. 1 452. 4 436. 2 438. 3 443. 3 448. 3 452. 4 454.4 457. 3 458. 5 461.7 462. 1 467. 9 472.4 471.5 33. 3 43. 6 63. 5 89. 8 82. 9 78. 8 79. 1 80. 9 81. 8 82. 9 79. 2 75.4 73. 1 71.4 68. 2 70.6 69.6 64.3 237. 8 270. 0 300. 9 329. 3 369. (5 357.4 359. 2 362.4 366. 5 369. 6 375. 2 381. 9 385.4 390.2 393.9 397.3 402.8 407. 1 273. 4 319. 6 348. 0 369. 2 428. 6 410. 0 415. 2 420. 0 424. 4 428.6 433.5 438.8 444. 0 449. 3 454. 3 458. 9 464. 3 471. 0 Tim e and sa vings Demand 181. 3 198.4 209. 0 215. 3 221. 0 221. 3 221. 6 220. 8 222. 1 221. 0 220. 8 221, 5 222. 3 225.0 226. 0 225. 5 226.6 227.6 MI is currency plus demand deposits; Ms is MI j)lus time deposits at commercial banks other than large certificates of deposit (CDs); and MS is Ms plus deposits at nonbank thrift institutions. 26 Per cent chajage 2 Comporlents anc [related i terns 1 U.S. Government demand deposits (unadjust- M1 M2 ed) 6.9 7.4 6. 3 4. 9 4. 1 2.7 3.9 3.4 3.5 4. 1 3.8 4. 5 3.9 3.8 3. 7 4.7 3. 4 3.6 6.5 9.2 6.0 4. 7 4. 1 8.2 6.8 6. 1 11.4 11.4 8. 8 7. 2 8. 5 10. 8 9.8 9. 5 2. 6 9.2 6.9 2.2 2.3 8.8 5.6 3. 0 5. 7 5. 3 5. 7 6. 7 6.7 7. 1 9. 6 11.3 10. 9 11. 1 11. 5 10. 6 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes ar< from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Keseree System. PRIVATE LIQUID ASSET HOLDINGS— NONFINANCIAII INVESTORS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Cum?ncy and <ieposits Total liquid assets Period 1969: 1970: 1971: 1972: 1973: 1974: 1975: Dee Dec Dee Dec Dec Dec Dec 1975: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Total Currency - _ „ _ „ _ 1, 258. 6 1, 264. 4 1, 275. 4 . 1, 291. 6 1,301.6 1976: Jan Feb-_ _ Mar Apr May June. July Aug * 1, 310. 5 1, 320. 7 1, 329. 5 1, 342. 6 1, 351. 4 1, 362. 8 1, 374. 7 1, 382. 3 : „ Demand deposits Commercial banks ShortNonbank term Savings marketthrift institubonds able setions curities Negotiable certificates of deposit Commercial paper 46. 1 49. 1 52. 6 56. 9 61. 5 67. 8 73.7 144.8 151.4 160. 3 174.9 180.9 182. 1 189. 0 177.3 199. 3 233. 7 264. 7 294. 9 321. 9 361. 3 214.9 232.7 273.4 319. 6 348. 0 369.2 428. 6 51.7 52.0 54.3 57.6 60. 4 63. 3 67. 2 64.0 52. 6 37. 8 38. 3 50. 3 57. 8 67. 3 9.0 23.0 30.2 39. 7 57. 9 79,6 72. 9 29. 1 24.7 24. 0 27. 5 38. 3 41.8 41. 6 1, 020. 3 1, 027. 4 1, 035. 6 1, 046. 7 1, 052. 6 71. 9 72. 0 72.6 73.4 73.7 189. 6 189. 7 189. 0 190. 7 189. 0 348.8 350. 5 354. 0 358. 2 361. 3 410. 0 415. 2 420.0 424. 4 428. 6 65. 9 66.2 66.6 66. 9 67.2 62. 2 61.0 62. 1 65.4 67.3 69. 1 69. 3 70.6 71.5 72.9 41. 1 40.4 40.5 41. 1 41.6 1, 063. 9 1, 078. 1 1, 088. 1 1, 102. 0 1, 112. 8 1, 120. 0 1, 132. 6 1, 146. 0 74. 2 75. 1 75. 7 76.7 77. 4 77.6 78.2 78.7 189. 1 190.0 190.2 192. 5 193. 7 193. 0 193.8 195. 0 367. 1 374. 3 378.2 383. 6 387. 4 390. 6 396. 2 401. 3 433. 5 438. 8 444. 0 449. 2 454. 3 458. 9 464. 3 471. 0 67. 6 68. 0 68. 3 68. 6 69.0 69.3 69.9 70.6 67.5 66. 4 66. 7 66.7 66.7 67.4 66. 9 65.5 69.6 66. 1 64.0 62. 2 59.0 61. 1 60.0 54.7 41.9 42.1 42.4 43.0 43.9 44. 9 45.4 45.5 583. 1 737.0 632. 5 784. 8 719. 9 866. 3 816. 1 _ _ _ _ 979. 2 885. 4 1, 092. 3 1, 183. 4 940. 9 1, 301. 6 1,052.6 - U.S. G overnment se curities Time d eposits Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER INSTALMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Instalm ent credit e:^tended Period Total * 1975: 1976: July Aug.. Sept Oct.-. Nov Dec... ... . Jan Feb Mar „_ Apr May . June July Total1 Automobile Bank credit cards Total1 Automobile Bank credit cards 32, 553 29, 965 34, 778 40, 266 46, 105 43, 209 48, 103 4,398 6,768 8,377 10, 390 13, 863 17, 098 20, 428 99, 107, 113, 124, 140, 151, 156, 786 385 788 513 552 056 640 29, 974 30,432 31, 303 34, 705 40, 137 42, 883 45, 472 3,066 5, 615 7, 679 9,472 12, 433 15, 655 19, 208 9, 360 4, 790 9,299 15, 559 19, 676 8, 952 6, 843 2,579 -468 3,476 5, 561 5,968 327 2, 631 1,332 1, 153 699 918 1,430 1,443 1,220 14, 14, 14, 14, 14, 15, 089 048 194 609 579 228 4,104 4, 143 4,330 4,354 4,441 4,642 1, 684 1, 743 1,806 1,781 1,842 1,839 12, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 803 211 201 429 255 738 3, 719 3, 884 3, 869 3, 860 3,835 3,883 1,591 1, 634 1, 670 1, 696 1,762 1,832 1,286 838 993 1, 181 1, 324 1,490 386 259 461 494 606 759 94 110 135 85 80 6 15, 15, 15, 15, 15, 15, 15, 132 045 521 003 041 592 240 4, 505 4,523 4,689 4, 583 4,471 4, 600 4, 477 1, 2, 2, 1, 2, 2, 2, 14, 13, 14, 13, 13, 14, 13, 029 923 048 576 566 261 937 3, 966 3,909 4, 026 3,851 3, 819 4,074 3,922 1, 815 1,881 1,926 1,846 1,911 1, 990 1,981 1,103 1, 123 1,473 1,427 1,474 1,330 1, 303 539 614 663 732 652 526 556 106 132 192 139 193 98 171 i Includes some items not shcrwr. separately. Bank credit cards Net change in amount outstanding 146 175 086 072 228 008 483 109, 112, 123, 140, 160, 160, 163, 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Automobile Instalmcjnt credit lie[uidated 921 012 118 985 103 088 152 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK LOANS, INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES From July to August, commercial and industrial loans were unchanged while bank holdings of U.S. securities increased by $2.3 billion. Government BILLIONS OF COLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCAtQ ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 40 40 1968 1970 1969 1971 1972 •'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, iND OF MONTH SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1975: Aug Sept Oct..Nov Dec 1976: Jan » Feb "p Mar _ Apr »p May June v _ _ July » Aug * Total loans and investments 401. 7 435. 5 485.7 558.0 633.4 3 690. 4 721. 1 709. 3 712. 7 716. 3 722. 2 721. 1 723. 3 726.7 731. 2 734. 5 737. 6 738. 8 _ 743. 1 748. 7 are for December. Member bank reserves series reflects actual reserve requirement percentages with no adjustment to eliminate the effect ol changes in Regulations D and M. * Keserves available to support private nonbank deposits are defined as (1) required reserves for (a) private demand deposits, (b) total time and savings deposits, and (c) nondeposit sources subject to reserve requirements and (2) 1974 1975 1976 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] All commercial banks l All member banks Borrowiiags (milL( 3ans IReserves 2 3 Investsaents lions of dollars, unadju isted) 2 Total ex- Commer- U.S. Gov- Other cluding cial and NonAvailSeasecuernment Total Total inter- industrial securities borrowed able 4 sonal rities bank 279.4 51.2 105.7 27.93 26.81 71. 1 25.46 1,086 292.0 110.0 57.8 85. 7 28. 77 29. 11 321 26.81 320.9 104.2 31.24 31. 12 116. 1 60.6 28. 78 107 378. 9 130.2 31.44 30. 39 116.5 62.6 29. 00 1,049 449.0 156.4 54.5 33.69 34.98 129.9 32.78 1,298 41! 500.2 183.3 50.4 35.90 36.63 139. 8 34.42 703 32 176.0 496.9 79.4 144. 8 34 62 34.75 32. 44 127 13 490.2 144. 1 176. 5 34.88 34.67 211 75.0 32.77 38 175.4 491. 5 76. 7 34.99 34.59 144.5 32.77 396 61 495. 0 176. 3 34.79 34.60 76.0 145.3 32.61 191 65 498. 5 177. 1 34.73 76.8 146. 9 34.67 32.43 61 28 496. 9 176.0 79.4 34. 62 144. 8 34.75 32.44 127 13 497.3 176.6 34.32 34.24 32. 17 145. 0 81.0 79 9 175. 1 497.8 34. 05 33. 97 84.4 144.5 31.85 76 11 6 499.7 171. 4 88.2 33.95 143.3 34.00 31.75 58 8 500. 5 170.5 34. 02 33. 98 90.0 31.87 44 144.0 11 500.6 170.7 34. 14 34.02 93.0 144.0 121 31. 95 11 500.7 170.2 94. 0 144. 1 34.34 34.21 32. 01 120 20 504.7 171.0 92.7 34.25 32. 19 145.7 34.39 123 24 507.6 171.0 95.0 146. 1 34.56 34. 46 32.20 104 28 1 Data are for end of period. 2 Averages 01 daily figures. Annual data 8 28 1973 excess reserves. This series excludes required reserves for new interbank and U.S. Government demand deposits. 6 During 1974, total loans and investments were increased $0.6 billion due to a bank merger and were reduced $1.5 billion due to liquidation of a large bank. • Loan ^classifications reduced these loans by $1.2 billion as of March 31,1976. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates) Uses Sources External Period Total Internal 1 Credi t market funds Total TTVvfol Longterm 2 Short-3 term Total Other 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973. 1974___ 1975 96.9 93.3 114.5 118.8 105.2 129.0 154.0 181. 6 181.7 145.5 60.5 61. 3 62. 3 61. 7 58. 9 68.6 80.8 83.8 77.6 103.4 36.4 32.0 52.2 57. 1 46.3 60.4 73.2 97.8 104, 1 42.1 25.6 28.9 32.0 38.6 41.5 46.3 58.8 72.9 BL 9 37.4 16. 0 21. 1 18.9 20.9 32.7 41.6 41.4 37.4 39.6 49.4 9. 5 7.8 12.9 17.6 8.9 4.7 17.3 35.4 42.4 -11.8 10.9 3.2 20.3 1975: I II III IV 82.2 129.0 172. 1 198.3 83.5 101.5 113.6 114.9 — 1.3 27.5 58.5 83.4 345 31.0 30.8 53.5 52. 1 52.4 37.6 55.6 -17.6 -21. 3 — 6. 9 — 2. 1 -35.8 -3.5 27. 7 29.9 1976: I II* 204.4 217.0 120.7 119.6 83.7 97.4 46.0 51.5 48.6 48.2 -2.7 3.2 37.7 45. 9 * Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) and capital consumption allowances. * Stocks, bonds, and mortgages. » Bank loans, commercial rarer, finance efmpany loans, bankers' acceptance^ and Government loans. las 4.7 14.0 14.4 26.0 22.2 4.6 Purchase of physical assets 4 Increase in financial assets Discrepancy (sources less uses) T& o 72.6 77.6 85.0 80.6 8&2 101.0 124.4 134.6 95.9 12.6 16.8 28.8 28.4 15.4 28.8 3&5 41. 1 35.3 35.2 8. 3 3.9 8.2 5.3 9. 1 13.9 16. 4 16. 1 11.9 14.3 159.3 183.6 89.8 80.4 106.5 107. 1 -21.7 33.3 52.8 76.5 14. 1 15.3 12.8 14.7 192.4 203.8 129.3 138. 1 63. 1 65.7 12. 1 13.2 88.6 8§. 4 106.4 113.4 96.0 115.0 137.5 165.5 169.9 131. 1 68.1 na7 * Plant and equipment, residential structures, and inventory investment. Note. —Series revised beginning 1966. Source: Beard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars] Current assets End of period Cash U.S. Receivables Govon from hand ernTotal U.S. and ment Govin 1 securiernties 2 banks ment 3 1966 364,0 386.2 1967 426.5 1968 1969 473. 6 492.3 1970 1971 529. 6 1972 573. 5 1973 643.3 1974 712.2 1975__. 731.6 1974: III_. 708.6 IV.- 712. 2 1975: I— .698.4 !!___ 703.2 Ill- 716. 5 IV_._ 731. 6 41.9 45.5 48.2 47.9 50. 2 53. 3 57. 5 61.6 62.7 68. 1 60.3 62.7 60.6 63. 7 65.6 68. 1 13.0 10.3 11.5 10.6 7.7 11. 0 9.3 11.0 11.7 19.4 11.0 11.7 12. 1 12.7 14.3 19.4 4.5 5. 1 5. 1 4.8 4.2 3. 5 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3. 5 3.5 3. 2 3.3 3.3 3. 6 1976: !___. 753. 5 68.4 21.7 3.6 1 2 Includes time Notes and accounts receivable 142. 1 150.2 168. 8 192. 2 201. 9 217. 6 240.0 266. 1 289.7 294. 6 295. 5 289. 7 281.9 284.8 294.7 294 6 307. 3 Current liabilities Other Incurvenrent astories sets 4 142. 8 153. 1 166. 0 186.4 193. 3 200.4 215. 2 246.7 288.0 285. 8 282. 1 288.0 285.2 281. 4 279. 6 285.8 19.7 22.0 26.9 31. 6 35. 0 43. 8 48. 1 54. 4 56. 6 60.0 56. 1 56.6 55.4 57. 3 59.0 60.0 288. 8 63.6 certificates of deposit. Includes Federal agency issues. * Keceivables from and payables to the U.S. Government do not include amounts offset against each other on corporations' books or amounts arising from subcontracting which are not directly due from or to fhte tJ.S. Government. Total Advances and Notes preand payacments. counts U.S. payable Govern- 3 ment 199.4 211.3 244. 1 287.8 304. 9 326. 0 352.2 401.0 450. 6 457.5 449. 1 450. 6 44 5.8 6.4 7. 3 6.6 4.9 40 43 5.2 6.4 5. 1 5.2 438. 0 434.2 444 7 457.5 465.9 Federal income tax liabilities Other current liabilities 17.4 13.2 143 12.6 10. 0 13. 1 15. 1 18.1 23.2 20. 7 22.7 23.2 445 51.0 61.0 76.0 83.6 92.4 102. 6 117. 0 1348 148. 8 5.3 5.8 6.2 6.4 133. 1 141.3 162. 4 191. 9 204 7 215.6 230.4 261. 6 287. 5 281.6 287.0 287. 5 271. 2 270. 1 273.4 281. 6 21.8 17. 7 19. 4 20.7 6.4 280. 5 23.9 1343 1348 139. 8 140. 6 145. 6 148. 8 155.0 Net working capital 1646 1749 182.4 185. 7 187.4 203. 6 221. 3 242. 3 261. 5 274. 1 259. 5 261. 5 260. 4 269.8° o 271. 274 1 287.6 Wherever possible, adjustments have been made to include U.S. Government advances offset against inventories on corporations' books. * Includes marketable investments (other than Government securities and time certificates of deposit) as well as sundry current assets. Source: Securities and Exchange Commission. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Both short-term and long-term interest rates continued to decline in August and September. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM CORPORATE '" MOO / ' • /j .--.,-./ . 1 f—~. :/ V J "*V. ^"-" / \1 \ \ 1 BA NK OF N£\V YORK : 1 > r-* \ \ / f..*-' \ 1 1 1 I 1 ! IM 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 L 1970 1968 ^fir^, 8 •- i V V Y\ l| \h / \ ^ / >\l IILLS I b^ J ' V * ""VfV y ~^-N TREASURY I H 4 / r^i \/ •1 1 ! ! | 1 ! 1 1 I 1 1 i .t * ^^ A x / I I / 2 /"i 'If \ RATE FE DERAL Rf SERVE 4 : / * DISCOUNT 1 ' \ \• v\ ,'"-f ; V,^ f\i~ / crs) \ \Y V _v 8 ONDS fea i V 1 111 111 1111 , 1 , 1 III, M l 1971 1972 I 1 I I 1I 1 1973 1 11 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 l'l i 1 i l l i i l 1 l i 1 I i l i 1 l 1974 1975 SOUIKf, SKTMUiacnv 1976 2 ^ COUNCHQf. ECONOMIC ADVTSOO [Percent per aonum] U.S. Government aeoiirity yields HighCorporate grade municipal Aaa bonds bonds (Standard (Moody's) & Poor's)4 Period 3-month Treasury bills' 3-5 year issues J 1970 1971 1972_. 1973 1974 1975 1975: Aug._ Sept 6.458 4.348 4.071 7.041 7.886 5.838 6.463 6. 383 6. 081 5. 468 5. 504 4. 961 4. 852 5.047 4. 878 5. 185 5. 443 5.278 5. 153 7.37 5.77 5.85 6.92 7.81 7.55 8. 12 8.22 7.80 7.51 7. 50 7. 18 7. 18 7. 25 6. 99 7. 35 7.40 7. 24 7.04 6.59 5.74 5.63 6.30 6.99 6.98 7.06 7.29 7.29 7.21 7.17 6.94 6.92 6.87 6. 73 6. 99 6.92 6.85 6. 79 6. 51 5. 70 5.27 5. 18 6.09 6. 89 7.02 7.23 7. 22 7.21 7.06 6.80 6. 91 6.86 6.62 6. 87 6. 85 6.64 6. 28 8.04 7.39 7.21 7.44 8.57 8.83 8. 95 8.95 8.86 8.78 8.79 8.60 8. 55 8. 52 8.40 8. 58 8.62 8. 56 8. 45 5.091 5. 087 5. 099 5. 028 6.91 6.88 6.84 6.80 6.77 6. 73 6. 70 6.64 6.21 & 17 6.22 6.22 8.41 8.38 8. 39 8. 36 Oct Nov Dec 1976: Jan Feb.. Mar Apr May June July Aug. _ _ Week ended: 1976: Sept 3- _. 10- — 17__. 24 v 1 Kate on 2 Selected 3 Taxable bonds * new issues within period. note and bond issues. April 1953 to date, bonds dee or callable 10 years and alter. * Weekly data are Wednesday figures. *6 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for monl h and week. Beginning Koreanber 1973, several banks adopted a floating prime rate keyed 30 Prime commercial paper, 4—6 months Discount rate (N.Y. F.K. Bank)' Prime rate charged by banks s ' Newhome mortgage yields (FHLBB)' 7.91 5.70 5.25 8.02 10.80 7.86 8.45 7. 74 7.60 7.95 5. 47 5.95 4.88 4.50 & 44 7.83 6.25 6 -6 6 -6 6 -6 6 ~6 6 -6 6 -5H 5M-5K 5H-5K 5K-5H 5H-5!/2 5H-5H . 5H-5J4 5>i-5^ 5.45 5.50 5. 50 5.38 5H-5M 5H-5K 5H-5H 5H-5/2 7.72 5. 11 4.69 8. 15 9.87 6.33 6.70 6.86 6.48 5.91 5.97 5.27 5.23 a 37 5.23 5.54 5.94 5.67 TH-TT* 7%-8 8 -7% 1%-1% 7H-7K 7tf-67i 6M-63/4 6%-6% G%-6% W-S% 7 -7)4 7K-7^ 7>4-7 a 92 9.01 a 89 8.94 9.01 9.01 9.01 8.99 8.93 8.93 8. 92 8.97 8.89 8. 97 9. 03 7-7 7-7 7-7 7-7 to money market variables. Beginning April 16, 1973, with the adoption of the "dual prime rate", this table shows only the rate charged for large business loans. 7 Effective rate (In the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Eatea beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices increased during September after a modest decline in late August. INDEX, DEC3^1965=50 1 8Q INDEX, DEC 31,1965«50 80 70 70 COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX (NYSE) 20 20 T> „ 15 _ ARNINGS->RICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS I ''^^V (S&P) 10 5 0 \ —^ -^^ 1 ! 1 1968 1 1 1 1969 1 t ! 1970 v 1 1 1 ! 1971 1 . 1 1972 I I I 1973 . / I ! 1974 10 ^ ! •« I I I 1975 45. 72 54.22 60.29 57.42 43.84 45. 73 49.54 45.71 44.97 46.87 47.64 46. 78 51. 31 53. 73 54. 01 54. 28 53.87 54.23 55.68 55. 18 48.03 57.92 65.73 63.08 48.08 50. 52 54.96 50. 71 50. 05 52.26 52.91 51. 89 57. 00 59. 79 60. 30 60. 62 60. 22 60. 70 62. 11 61. 14 32. 14 44.35 50. 17 37.74 31. 89 31. 10 32. 90 30.08 29. 46 30.79 32. 09 31. 61 35.78 38.53 39. 17 38. 66 39. 71 40.41 42. 12 40.63 37.24 39. 53 38.48 37. 69 29. 79 31.50 32. 98 31. 02 30.65 31.87 32.99 32. 75 35. 23 36. 12 35.43 35. 69 35. 40 35. 16 36. 49 37. 56 60.00 70.38 78. 35 70. 12 49.67 47. 14 52. 51 46.55 43. 38 44. 36 45. 10 43. 86 48. 83 52. 06 52. 61 52. 71 50. 99 51. 82 54. 06 54. 22 Standard Dow& Poor's Jones composite Dividend- Earningsindustrial8 index ratio ratio average (1941-43= 10) 4 83. 22 753. 20 6.46 3.83 5.41 884. 76 98. 29 3. 14 950. 71 109. 20 2.84 5.50 7.12 923. 88 107. 43 3.06 759. 37 82.85 11.60 4.47 802. 49 86. 16 4. 31 9.03 4.02 856. 28 92.49 815. 51 85.71 4.36 818. 28 84. 67 4.39 9. 12 831. 26 88. 57 4. 22 845. 51 90.07 4.07 840. 80 4. 14 88.70 8. 61 929. 34 96.86 3.80 971. 70 100. 64 3. 67 988. 55 101. 08 8.26 3.65 992. 51 101. 93 3. 66 988. 82 101. 16 3. 76 985. 59 101. 77 3. 75 993. 20 104. 20 3. 64 981. 63 103. 29 3. 74 55. 21 55.91 55. 96 57. 14 61. 11 61. 89 61. 91 63. 32 40. 27 40. 33 40. 04 40.79 37.84 38.47 38.78 39. 35 54. 10 54. 56 54. 30 55.07 980. 50 991. 19 984. 86 1, 008. 49 New York Stock Exch ange indexe,3 (Dec. 31, 11965 = 50) 2 Composite Industrial Transportation 10 17_ 24 1 Utility Averages of daily closing prices. 2 Includes all the stocks (more than 1,475) listed on the N YSE. *6 Includes 30 stocks. * Includes 500 stocks. Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closineB prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. i Common s took5 yields (percent) Cominon stock p rices1 1970... 1971 1972 1973 1974 __ 1975 ... 1975: July_______ Aug___- — Sept Oct Nov Dec........ 1976: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug.. Week ended: 1976: Sept 3 _ _ _ _ _ ! 1976 COUNCIL OF iCONOMJC ADVISERS SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION Period I Finance 103. 45 104. 76 104. 82 107. 07 3.74 3. 74 3.64 NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange. Dow-Jones & Company, Inc.. and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBT In fiscal 1976 there was a deficit of $65.6 billion, compared to a deficit of $43.6 billion in fiscal 1975. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOUARS 450 450 RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS 400 400 350 350 300 300 250 250 200, 200 150 150 50 50 SURPLUS (+} OR DEFICIT (-} -50 -50 -100 -100 1968 1969 1970 1972 1971 1973 1?74 1975 1976 1977 FISCAL YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Federal debt (end of period) Period Receipts Fiscal year: 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972_._ . __ 1973 _ . _ _ __ 1974 . 1975 _ 1976 v Transition quarter (Mid-Session Review estimates 2)._ 1977 (estimates): Mid-Session Review 2 Second Concurrent Resolution 3 Cumulative total: July- August 1975_____ July- August 1976 _ 1 Excludes 3 non-interest-bearing public debt securities held by IMF. Mid-Session Review of the 1977 Budget, Office of Management and Budget, July 16,1976. Debt figures are very preliminary. 3 Second Concurrent Resolution on the Budget—-Fiscal Year 1977, September 16, 1976. 32 Outlays 149.6 153.7 187.8 193.7 188.4 208.6 232.2 264. 9 281. 0 300.0 82. 1 158.3 178.8 184.5 196.6 211.4 231.9 246.5 268. 4 324.6 365. 6 102. 1 352.5 362.5 43.7 50. 0 Surplus or deficit (-) Total .1 Held by the public -43.6 -65.6 -20. 0 341.3 369.8 367. 1 382.6 409. 5 437. 3 468.4 486.2 544.1 631.3 648.9 267.5 290.6 279.5 284.9 304. 3 323.8 343.0 346. 1 396.9 479.7 500. 5 400. 0 413. 1 -47.5 -50.6 721.8 700.0 560. 5 61.8 63. 5 -18.1 -13.5 558. 6 644.4 411. 9 494.4 -8.7 -25.2 3.2 -2.8 -23.0 -23.2 -14.3 -a 5 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget, except as noted. FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In fiscal 1976, receipts were $19.0 billion higher than in fiscal 1975 and outlays $41.0 billion higher. BlkLIONS^OF DOLLARS BILUONS OF DOLLARS 50 50 CORPORATION INCOME TAXES 1 300 1 1 ! OUTLAYS 300 250 250 200 200 NONDEFENSE .3 150 150 NATIONAL DEFENSE 100 100 ~~~Y 50 ! 1 1968 ! 1969 1970 1 1 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 SOURCES. DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFiCE Of MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET 50 1977 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] (Outlays Recei pts Nationa ( defense Corporation income taxes Other Total 61. 5 68.7 87. 2 34. 0 28.7 36. 7 54. 1 56. 3 63. 9 158. 3 178. 8 184. 5 69. 1 79.4 80. 2 67. 5 77. 4 77. 9 4. 7 4. 6 3.8 37. 6 43.4 49.0 12.5 13.8 15.8 34.3 37.7 35. 7 7 4 6 2 9 90. 4 86. 2 94. 7 103. 2 119.0 32.8 26. 8 32. 2 36.2 38.6 70. 5 75. 4 81.7 92. 8 107. 4 196. 211. 231. 246. 268. 6 4 9 5 4 79.3 76.8 77.4 75. 1 78.6 77.2 74.5 75. 2 73. 3 77.6 3. G 3. 1 3. 7 3. 0 3.6 56. 1 70. 1 81. 4 91. 8 106. 5 18. 3 19. 6 20. 6 22. 8 28. 1 39. 3 41.8 48. 8 53. 9 51. 7 281.0 300. 0 82. 1 352. 5 122.4 131. 6 39. 7 152. 6 40. 6 41. 4 8.9 53. 1 118. 0 127. 0 33. 5 146. 8 324.6 365. 6 102. 1 400. 0 86. 5 90.2 26. 0 101. 6 85.0 88. 0 24. 5 100. 0 4.4 4. 5 2. 0 7. 1 136. 3 160. 5 42. 1 172.7 31.0 35.5 9.5 40.2 66.5 74.9 22.5 78.4 43.7 50.0 20. 0 23. 3 2. 0 2. 2 21.7 24. 5 61.8 63.5 15.5 14.7 14.5 14. 1 1. 0 1.3 25. 6 28. 0 6. i 5.3 14. 4 13.4 Period Total Fiscal year: 1967 1968 1969 149. 6 153. 7 137. 8 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 * Transition quarter 1977 l 193. 188. 208. 232. 264. 1 Cumulative total : July- August 1975 _ July-August 1976 Individual income taxes * Estimates from the Mid-Ses.rion Review c/the Budget, Ju ly 16, 1976. Total | Health Depart- Internaand Intional ment of income terest Other Defense, affairs security military Sources : Department ol the Treasury and Ofl ee of JMariag ement ancI Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS According to revised estimates, Federal receipts rose $8.1 billion (annual rate) in the second quarter and expend! tures fell $1.6 billion, yielding a deficit of $54.1 billion, $9.7 billion less than the first quarter deficit. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 440 BILLIONS Of DOLLARS 440 400 400 360 SURPLUS mm ~~ ii H na m "Iiiii*!*! -40 !1 IIi 1i I i 4x "I1 y/( -40 ^ -80 -120 DEFICIT -80 -120 1968 1970 1969 1971 1972 1973 197 5 1974 1976 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal CTovernm ent receip ts Period Indirect Personal Corporate business tax and Total nontax profits tax and tax nontax receipts accruals accruals I'ederal (jovernm ent expe nditures Surplus or GrantsSubsidies Less : deficit ContriWage Purin-aid less chases Trans- to State Net butions current accruals national Total of goods fer pay- and interest surplus of less for income social inand ments local paid Govern- disand services governbursesurance ment enproduct ments ments terprises accounts (-), Fiscal year: 1973 240. 5 1974 . 271.9 1975 283.2 311.4 1976 2* 1977 364. 1 Calendar year: 1972 227.5 1973 258. 3 1974 288.2 1975 286.5 107.3 122. 6 127.3 136. 3 159.4 41.0 43.8 41. 6 51.2 60.4 20. 7 21.4 22. 1 24.2 24.6 71.5 84. 1 92.2 99.7 119.7 256.2 278.9 329.5 372.6 408. 1 101. 7 104.8 119. 0 127. 6 141. 0 89. 7 104. 7 134. 1 156. 7 170.1 40. 4 41. 6 48. 3 57.0 59.9 15. 9 19.8 21.9 25.8 30.9 9. 1 7.9 5.7 5.8 6.2 108.2 114.6 131.2 125. 7 36. 6 43.0 45. 6 42. 6 20. 0 21.2 21.7 23.9 62. 8 79.4 89. 8 94. 3 244.7 265.0 299.7 357. 8 102. 102. 111. 124. 1 2 6 4 83.2 95.8 117. 6 148.9 37.5 40.6 43. 9 54.4 14.6 18. 2 20.9 23. 5 1975:1 !!___ Ill— IV___ 287. 2 254. 4 297. 7 306. 7 137.6 99. 7 130. 5 135. 1 34. 8 38. 7 47.4 49. 4 21. 9 23.2 25. 2 25. 5 92. 8 92. 9 94. 7 96. 6 337. 0 354. 3 363. 7 376.0 120. 3 122. 4 124. 6 130.4 138. 7 149. 7 152. 1 154. 9 49. 8 53. 2 56.8 58.0 1976: I II 316. 5 324.6 137.7 141.9 53. 1 54.8 23. 3 102. 9 380.3 104. 6 378.7 129. 2 131. 2 160. 3 158. 7 58. 8 56. 3 1 2 Preliminary; based largely on data 22. a not seasonally adjusted. Estimates based on Mid-Session Review of the Budget, July 16,1976. 34 -.' 4 ' .0 .0 -15. 7 -7. 1 -46.3 -61.2 -44. 0 7. 8 8.2 5. 2 6. 5 ,5 .0 —.5 .0 -17.3 -6.7 -11.5 -71.2 22. 2 22. 6 23. 6 25. 6 6. 0 6. 4 6.7 7. 1 .0 .0 .0 .0 -49.8 -99.9 -66. 0 -69.4 26.6 27.4 5.4 5.2 .0 .0 -63.8 -54.1 , 0. 5 9 , Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Depa ment of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget. INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES [1967=100] Coiisumer prices (unadjusted) Iiidustria] produc tion (seaisonally jadjustec1) Period United States 1969 1970 1971 1972_ 1973 1974 1975 1975: III__ IV.. 1976: !_._. II__. III JulyAug_ 111 108 110 120 130 129 118 121 123 127 129 Japan Canada GerFrance many Italy 127 135 137 142 153 150 142 138 146 150 152 111 118 115 119 134 141 128 125 131 135 142 133 152 156 167 197 189 168 170 172 181 191 111 114 123 131 143 146 139 138 140 144 147 118 124 132 142 150 154 140 137 143 150 152 United United King- States dom Canada 110 116 121 125 133 148 161 163 166 167 169 109 112 116 121 130 145 160 163 166 168 171 111 120 127 133 149 183 205 207 211 217 223 171 172 172 173 225 223 109 111 111 113 122 120 114 112 112 114 115 131 131 GerJapan France many 111 117 124 131 141 160 179 181 185 189 193 Italy United Kingdom 105 109 115 121 130 139 147 148 150 152 154 104 109 114 121 134 160 187 188 194 202 215 110 118 128 138 150 174 217 224 232 241 248 155 155 218 251 Sources: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, in Business Conditions Digest. U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Merc landise i mports Mercb andise e xports 3 Domesti D exports> Gerleral imp>orts Period Monthly average : 1973 1974 Total domesFood, Crude tic and bever- mate- Manuforeign Total * 2 ages, facTotal 2 rials extured and to- and ports goods bacco fuels F. a.s. valu e 5 5,902 8, 159 5,811 8,045 1,078 1, 269 1,317 3,728 5,294 8, 159 1974 8,928 1975 1975: Aug.__ 8,980 Sept.__ 9, 104 9,226 Oct Nov... 9,409 Dec___ 9,250 9, 103 1976: Jan Feb_... 8,800 8, 956 Mar 9,394 Apr May_ _ 9, 578 9,716 June July.... 10, 022 8,045 8,803 1, 269 1, 399 1, 379 1, 358 1,510 1,493 1,409 1,510 1,337 1,305 1, 521 1, 427 1,439 1, 563 1, 317 1,264 1,322 1,199 1, 198 1,330 1,222 1,223 1,138 1,165 1,284 1,377 1,337 1,374 5,294 8,354 5, 913 8,010 6,000 7,877 6, 049 8,196 6,304 8, 169 6, 189 8,201 6,291 8,522 5,971 9,176 6,035 8,941 6,088 9,607 6, 191 9,596 6,443 9, 182 6, 557 10, 094 6, 669 10, 849 895 5,790 8,416 balance Ex- ports Ex(f.a.s.) ports Exports Food, Crude less (f.a.s.) (f.a.s.) bever- mate- Manu- Total less imless facrials ages, (c.i.f. im- imports tured value) * ports and to- and (c.i.f.) (cusports goods bacco fuels toms (f.a.s.) value) Custom s value 770 892 F.a.s. * Total excludes Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program. 23 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. * C.i.f. (cost, insurance, and freight) import value at first port of entry in the United States. Data for 1973 are estimates. Mer ^handise trade 892 827 777 1,020 855 867 825 872 889 1,053 896 932 1,062 1,068 1, 120 2, 653 ^value 5 2,672 2,716 2,715 3,005 2,912 2,896 2,852 3,233 2,913 2,885 3,492 2,759 3,409 3, 881 3,750 4,684 6, 131 9,000 4, 602 4,257 4, 178 4,060 4,289 4,365 4,582 4,714 4,782 5,183 5, 307 5, 196 5, 338 5, 722 9,000 8, 616 8,478 8,820 8,794 8, 828 9, 161 9,880 9,593 10, 301 10, 302 9, 873 10, 889 11, 650 -257 -195 -229 -841 -257 -195 -841 112 852 1,054 843 981 1, 134 671 132 -213 -734 -302 282 -516 -917 918 1, 103 908 1, 056 1,208 728 -73 -141 -651 -202 396 -377 -827 312 502 284 432 581 89 -776 -793 — 1,345 -908 -295 -1, 173 - 1, 628 £ F.a.s. (free alongside ship) value basis: at U.S. port of exportation for exports and at foreign port of exportation for imports. Note.—Data for 1975 are as revised in July except detail for general imports, not yet available. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the second quarter, the balance on current account was in surplus by $0.7 billion/ compared with a deficit of $0.1 billion in the first quarter, mainly because of a narrowing of the merchandise trade deficit. KLUONS OF DOLLARS 6 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 6 BALANCE ON CURRENT ACCOUNT 1968 1 1970 1969 1972 1971 1973 1975 1974 SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE i 1976 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars* quarterly data seasonally adjusted] Me rchandise 12 Period Exports 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Imports Net balance Direct expenditures 36, 414 -35,807 607 -4, 856 42, 469 -39, 866 2,603 -4, 855 43, 319 -45, 579 -2, 260-4, 819 49, 381 — 55,797 -6,416 -4, 784 911 -4, 629 71, 410 -70, 499 98, 310 - 103,679 -5, 369 5, 035 107, 088 - 98, 058 9,030 -4, 780 1975: I !!___ III... IV___ 27, 25, 26, 27, 018 851 562 657 -25,570 -22,568 -24,483 -25, 437 1, 3, 2, 2, 448 283 079 220 Sales Net balance U.S. Government 3, 471 3,631 5,659 6, 208 8, 188 13, 461 9,430 156 -112 -956 - 1, 888 -3, 010 -3,234 -3,423 915 807 978 197 -402 -378 — 115 12 2, 109 2,349 2, 487 2, 485 -985 -818 —805 -815 -687 -498 -568 -750 1, 145 1, 074 o -13 3,066 2,889 -787 -732 -754 1,212 -502 1,217 military grants. from Census data for differences in timing and coverage, Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from net investment income and included in other services, net. 36 Private 8 Net travel Other and trans- servporta- ices,3 tion net expenditures -3, 328 -3, 354 -2,893 -3,621 -2,287 -2,083 -883 1, 528 1, 501 1, 926 I, 163 2, 342 2, 952 3,897 -1,317 -1, 185 - 1, 093 - 1, 185 1, 1976: ! _ _ _ _ 26, 836 -28,510 -1,674 -1,150 II*___ 28, 450 -29, 735 - 1, 285-1,087 1 Excludes s Adjusted 3 Net iiavestment i ncome Militeyry transactions Balance on goods and serv-l ices - 1, 763 1,833 977 -2,023 2, 190 2, 938 -2, 315 2, 509 -256 -3,028 2, 789 -5, 954 -3,086 3, 188 3,905 -3, 107 3,919 3,586 -2, 503 4, 666 16, 316 1, 125 1, 146 1, 187 1,205 2,608 5, 084 4,265 4,357 Remittances, Balpenance sions, on curand other rent uniaclateral count transfers 1 -2, 994-2, 017 -3, 294 -356 -3,701 -3,957 -3,848 -9, 802 -3,883 22 -7, 184 -3, 598 -4,620 11, 697 -1, 179 -1, 146 -1,044 -1,251 1,429 3,938 3,221 3,106 1,058 -1,118 -872 1,574 -60 702 NOTE.—Data revised beginning 1975. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Econonvie .Analysis. b.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the second quarter, U.S. assets abroad (capital outflow), increased $8.8 billion, $1.2 billion less than in the first quarter. Foreisn assets in the United States (capital inflow), rose $7.2 billion, $1.8 billion more than in the first quarter. Net inflows from unrecorded transactions (statistical discrepancy) were $1.0 billion, si3nificantiy less than in the first quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 15 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 I 15 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 10 CHANGE IN FOREIGN ASSETS IN THE U.S., NET -15 -15 1968 1 1969 1970 1971 1972 1974 1973 1975 SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1976 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] UJ3. assets abroad, rlet [incre£ise/capita outflow (-)] Period Total 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 U.S. official reserve1 assets -8,823 -1, 187 -6,032 2,477 -9,596 2,348 32 - 10, 245 _. -16,434 209 —.33, 392 - 1, 434 -31, 593 -607 1975:1 -8,001 -7,943 III_.__ -4,411 IV__._ -11,238 II 1976: I__ _ -10,072 -325 -29 -342 89 Other U.S. U.S. Govern- private ment assets assets Foreign assets in the U.S., net [incr ease/capit al inflow (+)] Total U.S. Allocaofficial Foreign official tions reserve of Of SLS& ets assets, TVvf «1 1 otai special (sum of which: net 1 Foreign drawing Seasonal (unadthe adjust- justed, Assets of private rights items (SDR) with foreign ment end of assets sign discrepofficial Total period) changed) ancy reserve agencies -2, 200 -5,436 12, 270 -1,301 -1,552 13, 571 - 1, 589-6, 920 5,923 7,362 -984 6,907 - 1, 884-10, 060 22, 445 26, 895 27, 405 —4, 450 -1,568 -8, 708 21, 127 10, 705 10, 322 10, 422 -2, 645 -13, 998 18, 519 5, 145 12, 220 6,299 365 32, 323 32, 433 10, 981 10, 257 21, 452 -3,463 -27, 523 15, 326 5, 166 8,427 6, 899 — 899 6,777 — 840 -7, 074 -772 -3, 297 -952 -10, 375 -773 -684 -8, 615 II*_._._ -8,839 - 1, 578 - 1, 032-6,228 2,837 2, 331 3, 907 1,913 2, 708 -1,606 -1,977 5,874 2,272 2,771 3,402 2,958 -565 1,576 4,313 3, 103 5,396 3, 942 3, 960 3, 162 2,460 1,454 3, 197 7, 157 1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDH), convertible currencies, and the U.S. gold tranche position in the IMF. NOTE.—Data revised beginning 1975. Stati stical disereypaney - 1, 430 — 402 867 717 -9, 609 710 -1,790 -2, 107 4,557 4,570 16, 964 14, 487 12, 167 13, 151 14, 378 15, 883 16, 226 3, 735 1, 328 16, 256 98 -39 16, 242 -1,517 -2, 561 16, 291 2,258 1,275 16, 226 4,736 979 1,348 16, 941 -108 18, 477 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE POSTAGE AND FEES PAID U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 37S DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS WASHINGTON, D.C. 2O4O2 OFFICIAL BUSINESS First-Class Mall Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures _. -. _ , Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment .-«._ _ ... Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment _. .-._._<,__.-..-«... . _. _. ... _ ^. _. _ ^ _ ^. ,„ _-. « _ .. _.. . -. _ . _. ... ... -. ... _. , ~ ~. .....' -....-.._.__.-...-.....-..-._,.-..-..-... .. 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Productivity and Related Data, Private Business Economy _ -. -. _ -. -. .-. -.-.*.... 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and New Orders -..-..~. -.....M ................. ^. ..-,.-....-...._..-...^ -..... ^..-.-.. .... 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Wholesale Prices Consumer Prices ^ Changes in Wholesale Prices Changes in Consumer Prices.Prices Received and Paid by Farmers.... _ . . .-. ~ -.. -...........-. M _ M — ...... ^......— . ~.-..-.. ..........-. _. ^ 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock Private Liquid Asset Holdings—Nonfinancial Investors Consumer Instalment Credit. . Bank Loans, Investments, and Reserves ^. ^.... _...... Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields ^ ^ 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays and Debt _ Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function.- .-........Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis .-. -....................... 32 33 34 Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries... ^. ^. ^. ^. ^...... -. -..-. ^. -. _. ^. -....... -. ^... U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports. . . ^. ^-. ^. ^. _..-.......,~ ....-. _. -. _. ^... _.»-.... -.....-. -. _. -.»-. _. ^..-. -..-. -. -. ^. U.S. International Transactions.. ^. ^.._ ^. „ .-. _..-. ^. ^. _ ^.. ^. ^. ^. ^........ ...«,.-.....-. ^. ^. -. ^. ^. ^. ^. -. -. 35 35 36 »-.... INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS For sale by the Superintendent of Dtx;uments, TJ.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402 Price 85 cents (single copy). Subscription price: $10.10 per year; $2.55 additional for foreign mailing. 38