Full text of Economic Indicators : September 1949
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tflst Congress, 1st Session
*?t i.ouis P"Hic libra:
Economic Indicators
SEPTEMBER 1949
Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report
by the Council of Economic Advisers
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1949
JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming, Chairman
EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey, Vice Chairman
FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania
WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas
JOHN J. SPARKMAN, Alabama
PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois
ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio
RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont
ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah
WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio
FRANK BUCHANAN, Pennsylvania
JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan
ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania
CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts
THEODORE J. KREPS, Staff Director
GROVER W. ENSLEY, Associate Staff Director
JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk
[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [S. J. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Committee on the Economic
Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one
copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the
House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint
Committee on the Economic Report; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository
libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.
To the Members of Congress:
From the time the Joint Committee on the Economic Report was established its members realized that one of its
basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture of current economic trends and developments.
Fortunately, the joint committee found that Economic Indicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiled monthly
by the Council of Economic Advisers, admirably filled this need. While this material was prepared originally for the
use of-the President, the Council, and other officials in the executive offices, the Council made it available to the joint
committee.
Other Members of Congress also expressed an interest in being able to obtain a quick picture of current economic
facts without having to go through voluminous and specialized documents. In addition businessmen, farm leaders,
labor organizations, and representatives of the press and radio indicated their desire for this information.
Accordingly, the joint committee provided the Congress and the public with a limited number of copies of
Economic Indicators as a committee print pending final action on authorizing the publication on a more permanent basis.
As is indicated above such legislation has now been passed and the committee will issue the report on a regular monthly
basis.
Comments or suggestions with respect to possible improvements in this presentation will always be welcome.
11
Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report.
Letter of Transmitted
Hon. JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Chairman,
Joint Committee on the Economic Report,
United States Congress, Washington, D. C.
DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy, to cooperate with the
Joint Committee on the Economic Report in making Economic Indicators available to the
Congress as a whole and to the general public, in accordance with Public Law 120, Eightyfirst Congress.
In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has found
it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic fomf the most important facts showing
current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a better position
to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the improvement
and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services.
In this undertaking the Council has the full cooperation of the several agencies of the
Federal Government that collect statistical material. In many cases these agencies supply
advance estimates for use in Economic Indicators. While the charts are drawn through the
courtesy of the Graphics Unit in the Office of the Secretary of Commerce, the Council takes
complete responsibility for the graphic presentation.
This material has proven useful to the President, the Council, the executive departments, and the Congress. Furthermore, its usefulness to^the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and
consumer organizations with whom we regularly consult.
We believe that the Congress is performing a service of real value by making this
material available.
Sincerely yours,
Chairman.
Chairman.
Qf
*
ff
iU
Contents
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
Page
The Nation's Economic Budget
1
PRICES
Consumers' Prices
Wholesale Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
Stock Prices
2
3
4
5
EMPLOYMENT
Labor Force
Employment in Business and Government
Average Weekly Hours
Work Stoppages
6
7
8
9
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production
Production of Selected Durable Manufactures
Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures
Weekly Production—Selected Indicators
New Construction
,
New Housing Starts
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
New Corporate Security Issues
Inventories and Sales
Merchandise Exports and Imports
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
PURCHASING POWER
National Income
Corporate Profits
Personal Income
Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving
Per Capita Income
Average Hourly Earnings
Average Weekly Earnings
Farm Income
,
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Consumer Credit
:
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
Bank Loans and Investments
Money Supply
Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public
IV
30
31
32
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
The Nation's Economic Budget total declined slightly from 1st to 2nd quarter of 1949. The fall in
business investment, due mainly to inventory liquidation, more than o f f s e t the rise in Government
expenditures.
1949, 1st Quarter
*
TOTAL (Gross National Product )
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)^
EXCESS OF
EXPENDITURES -) , RECEIPTS ( +)
262 5
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ )
CONSUMERS
Transfer payments!^
1
,
+
1
:
INCOME
, CON-
| '95.0
:
'
j SUMER
* SAVING
1779
BUSINESS
!„..
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
INTERNATIONAL
|:
EXCESS OF
RECEIPTS
GOVERNMENT
"""""
' " • " • - " " - " " • ' • " " - ' • • " I '
( Federal, state and local)
-
-
-
1 CASH
I SURPLUS
T
57.5
56 7
'
^•Transfer payments
1949,
TOTAL
2nd
Quarter
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
(Gross National Product)
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ CONSUMERS
Transfer payments!^
INCOME
—
>942
|
1 CONSUMER
' SAVING
1782
BUSINESS
28.2
JJj
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
INTERNATIONAL
1
0.5
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
0.8
GOVERNMENT
( Federal, state and local)
SS.6*J
\
•
a
^- Transfer payment
Li
L/
I/
|
°
-
-
.
——
CASH
DEFICIT
1
PRICES
CONSUMERS' PRICES
Consumers' prices declined in July to the lowest point since April 1948 and to 3.3 percent below their
postwar peak A drop in food prices accounted for most of the decline. Apparel and housefurnishings
prices also fell while other prices showed little change.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
-
1942
1940
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
100
1949
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
[1935-39=100]
Period
1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
__ _
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
_
1948: July
Au gust __ .._
September
October .. _
November
December
1949: January _
February
March
April
Mayj _ _
___ ___
June
__
__ _
Julv
All items
99. 4
100. 2
105.2
116. 5
123. 6
125. 5
128. 4
139. 3
159. 2
171.2
173 7
174. 5
174. 5
173. 6
172. 2
171. 4
170. 9
169. 0
169. 5
169 7
169. 2
169. 6
168. 5
Food
95. 2
96. 6
105. 5
123. 9
138. 0
136. 1
139. 1
159. 6
193. 8
210. 2
216. 8
216. 6
215.2
211. 5
207. 5
205. 0
204. 8
199. 7
201. 6
202 8
202. 4
204. 3
201. 7
NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities.
Source: Department of Labor.
Apparel
100. 5
101. 7
106. 3
124. 2
129. 7
138. 8
145. 9
160. 2
185. 8
198. 0
197. 1
199. 7
201. 0
201. 6
201. 4
200. 4
196. 5
195. 1
193. 9
192. 5
191. 3
190. 3
188. 5
Rent
104. 3
104. 6
106.2
108. 5
108. 0
108.2
108. 3
108. 6
111. 2
117.4
117. 3
117. 7
118. 5
118. 7
118. 8
119. 5
119. 7
119. 9
120. 1
120. 3
120.4
120. 6
120. 7
Fuel, electricity, and
refrigeration
House furnishings
99.0
99.7
102.2
105.4
107. 7
109. 8
110.3
112.4
121. 1
133.9
134.8
136.8
137.3
137.8
137.9
137.8
138.2
138.8
138.9
137.4
135.4
135. 6
135. 6
101. 3
100.5
107.3
122.2
125. 6
136.4
145. 8
159.2
184.4
195.8
195.9
196.3
198. 1
198.8
198.7
198.6
196.5
195. 6
193. 8
191. 9
189.5
187. 3
- 186.8
Miscellaneous
100.7
101. 1
104.0
110.9
115.8
121.3
124. 1
128.8
139.9
149. 9
150. 8
152.4
152.7
153.7
153.9
154.0
154. 1
154. 1
154. 4
154. 6
154. 5
154. 2
154. 3
WHOLESALE PRICES
W h o l e s a l e prices declined slightly during August primarily because of a drop in farm prices. Other
wholesale prices registered little net change during the month.
PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE
220
220
200
OTHER THAN FARM
PRODUCTS AND FOODS
I I
i
l
l
I
I
I I
I
1945
SOURCE:
LATEST DAT*
DEPARTMENT OF L A B O R .
>LOTTED-MONTHI_Y: AUGUST
[1926=100]
All commodities
Period
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1946 monthly average
June_
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: July
August
September
October
November
December
1949: January
February
March
April
May
June
Julv 1
August
Week ended:
August 2
9
_
--
--
- --
. --
-----_ _
_
-_-_
__
- -
Farm products
Foods
82.7
99.6
130. 7
112.9
168.7
179. 1
188. 3
189.8
186.9
87.3
98.8
121. 1
112. 9
152. 1
165. 1
168. 8
169.8
168.9
165.4
164.0
162.4
160. 6
158. 1
158.4
156.9
155. 7
154.4
153.4
152. 2
82.4
105.9
148.9
140. 1
181.2
188. 3
195. 2
191.5
189.9
183.5
180.8
177.3
172.5
168.3
171.5
170.5
171.2
168. 5
165.8
161. 0
174.3
170.2
165.8
161.5
162.9
162.9
163.8
162.4
161.3
159. 8
152. 6
152. 7
151. 9
151. 9
152. 4
164. 3
163. 8
160. 1
159. 8
161.6
160.6
161.4
161.0
161.3
161.9
17S.2
Other than
farm products and foods
• 89.0
95.5
109. 5
105.6
135. 2
151.0
151. 4
153.3
153. 6
153.4
153. 6
153. 1
152.9
151.8
150.7
uao
146.8
145. 4
145.0
144. 9
144.9
145.0
144.9
144. 9
144. 9
16
_ _ _ _ _
23
-- 30
1
Estimate based on change in weekly index.
NOTE.—The weekly index presented here is a revised index which permits direct comparison with the
monthly index. It is not comparable with the old weekly index which does not permit such a comparison.
Source: Department of Labor.
PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
With decreases in most major commodity groups from July to August, the index of prices received by farmers, and
the parity ratio, continued the decline that started in April.
PERCENT OF 1910- 14 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE
P R I C E S RECEIVED
150
PARITY RATIO*
I
1939 40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
I
I
I
I
J F M A M J
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
!
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J
1947
1948
I
I
I
I
I
I
J A S O N D
1949
* RATIO OF PRICES RECEIVED TO PRICES PAID, INTEREST, AND TAXES.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Prices paid by
Prices
(includ- Parity ratio 8
received l farmers
ing interest2
by farmers
and taxes)
Period
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: July
August
September
October
No vember.
December.
_
1949: January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
1
August 1909-July
3
1910-14= 100.
3
*
95
124
159
192
195
202
233
278
287
301
293
290
277
271
268
124
132
150
162
169
172
193
231
249
77
94
106
119
116
117
121
120
115
251
251
250
249
247
247
120
117
116
111
109
108
268
258
261
260
256
252
249
245
248
245
246
246
245
245
244
243
108
105
106
106
104
103
102
101
1914=100.
Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, and taxes.
Source: Department of Agriculture,
In
STOCK PRICES
Stock prices of industrials and utilities, after reaching a new 1949 peak in August, declined slightly in the last weeks of
the month.
PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935 - 39 AVERAGE
175
175
W E E K L Y AVERAGE
125
RAILROADS
V'"\£.
*•
UTILITIES
V
\S«
'.33940
41 42 43
J
44 45 46 47 48
1947
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
1948
M
A
M
J
J
A
1949
SOURCE: STANDARD AND POOR'S CORPORATION.
[1935-39 = 100]
Combined
index 1
Period
Weekly average:
1939
1942
._ _
1946
1948
1948: July
August
September
October.
November
December
1949: January __
February
March
_ _
April
May
_
June
Julv
August _
Week ended:
August 3 _
_
10
17
24
•
31
_ _
_ __
Industrials
Railroads
94 2
69. 4
139 9
124. 4
131 9
127. 1
125.7
127. 8
120 4
119. 4
121. 0
117. 2
118. 0
118 5
117. 7
112. 0
117. 8
121. 9
94 8
71. 3
143 4
130. 6
138 9
133 5
131. 7
134. 3
126 4
125. 5
127. 3
122. 7
123. 7
124 2
123. 4
117. 0
123. 4
128. 2
120.
122.
123.
121.
121.
126.
129.
129.
127.
127.
3
9
3
1
3
6
2
6
2
5
Utilities
98 (
74 7
66. 1
143 0
114. 7
124 7
119 7
120. 4
120. 9
108 8
105. 8
105. 9
99. 6
97. 4
97 1
95. 8
88. 4
90. 6
94. 6
120. \
96. ^
99 i
97. [
97. c
97. A
94 *
92. £
94. 2
94. 4
95. 2
96. 1
95. 2
93. (
95. 4
98. F
91. 7
97. 2
96. 4
93. 2
92. 6
97. 3
98. 7
99. 5
98. 5
98. 7
6i. :
1
Combined index prior to June 23, 1948, was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials,
20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads,
and 31 utilities.
Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation.
96113—49
S
O
N
O
EMPLOYMENT
Unemployment declined 400,000 in August. Totai civilian employment rose a quarter of a million. The
increase of nearly a million and a half in nonagricultural industries was almost o f f s e t by a decline in
agricultural employment.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS
MILLIONS OF PERSONS
70
40
UNEMPLOYMENT- MAGNIFIED
1944
1946
1947
\ r
SCALE
J
F
M
A
MONTHLY A V E R A G E
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE : DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
[Thousands of persons 14 years nf age and over]
Total labor
force, including
armed
forces
Period
1 939 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: July
August-September.
October _
November.* __
December _ __ __
1949: January
February
March. _
April _ _
Mav__
.June
July
August
_
55, 600
65, 890
60, 820
61, 608
62, 748
65, 135
64,511
63, 578
63, 166
63, 138
62, 828
61, 546
61, 896
62, 305
62, 327
63, 452
04, 866
65, 278
65, 104
Civilian employment 1
Total
45, 750
53, 960
55, 250
58, 027
59, 378
61, 615
61, 245
60, 312
60, 134
59, 893
59, 434
57, 414
57. 168
57, 647
57, 819
58, 694
59, 619
59, 720
59, 947
In nonagricultural
industries
36, 140
45, 010
46, 030
49, 761
51, 405
52, 452
52, 801
51,590
51 , 506
51, 932
52, 059
50, 651
50, 174
50, 254
49, 999
49, 720
49, 924
50, 073
51,441
In agriculture
9, 610
8,950
8, 320
8, 266
7,973
9, 163
8,444
8,723
8,627
7,961
7,375
6,763
6, 993
7, 393
7,820
8,974
9,696
9,647
8,507
Armed
forces
370
11,260
3,300
1,440
1,307
1,293
1,325
1,366
1, 391
1,414
1,453
1,468
1,508
1,491
1,492
1,469
1,468
1,463
1,468
Unemployment
9,480
670
2,270
2, 142
2,064
2,227
1,941
1,899
1,642
1,831
1,941
2, 664
3, 221
3, 167
3,016
3,289
3,778
4,095
3,689
1
Includes part-time workers and those who had jobs but were not at work for such reasons as vacation,
illness, bad weather, temporary lay-off, and industrial disputes.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce,
_
,
r~ "
IN
__ —_
_..
GOVEI*NMICMT
Employment continued to hold steady in nondurable manufacturing industries in July but declined
further in durable manufacturing. Contract construction employment, while slightly below last year,
continued to increase seasonally.
MILLIONS OF WAGE
MILLIONS OF WAGE
AND S A L A R Y WORKERS
AND S A L A R Y WORKERS
1 2
12
MONTHLY
AVERAGE
/-—v
A
a
x'
RAD
1
\
A
^
\
x"*^
/
IRAR LE
FACT U R I N G x
^ o
\
I
I
*^P=*
---"' >
-"*
'
"/
^^^^^
^^
^**NCT
/
~~~*^
INAN CE AND SERVICE
S
/
_/
'
_/^f
%
«*«-*—-••—"--•
s — —— •«%.
MANUFACTURING
6
" /
_..*^nr-"u_^
-^ua,,!^^
6
^
GOV ERNNflENT
T
4
^X--<>-K>-<^_
-O
— -o-—°"~"^^\
o-—
^-oo— ^^
^°j[
TRANSPORTATION AND"
PU8LI C UT LITIES
^-CONTRACT COf^ STRUCTION
s
-^
^^
^^^
-•"
— - —- *x''
""\_-.--^""
V, G X
ININ
1
0
1939
— — *-*^r
1940
1941
1942
I
1943
1944
1
1945
M M !
1946
M
1
J A S 0
J F M A M J
M
N D
M
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
i
S
l
O
M M !
l
N
D
J
F
M A M
M
J
J
M
A S 0
1
O
N D
1949
1948
1947
Depor.me
[Thousands of wage and salary workers l
Durable
manufacturing
Period
Nondurable
manufacturing
Trade
Transportation and
Finance and Government
(Federal,
public
service
State, local)
utilities
Contract
construction
Mining
4,357
10, 297
7, 180
8,055
8, 214
5,720
7,084
7,335
7,846
8,063
6, 705
7, 322
8,820
9,450
9, 746
4, 610
5, 187
6,016
6,278
6,400
3, 987
6,049
5, 607
5,449
5, 658
2,912
3,619
4,023
4,060
4,065
1, 150
1,567
1,661
1,921
2,060
845
917
852
911
925
1948: June
July
August
September
October
November
December
8, 122
8, 165
8, 188
8,294
8, 318
8,303
8, 222
7, 993
8,007
8,253
8,403
8, 279
8, 158
8, 061
9, 670
9, 646
9, 660
9,733
9, 889
10, 036
10, 381
6,389
6,399
6, 383
6,379
6, 364
6,364
6, 346
5, 607
5, 599
5,650
5,801
5,789
5, 714
5,994
4, 105
4, 136
4, 139
4,092
4,091
4, 066
4,066
2, 173
2,219
2, 253
2, 239
2,206
2, 162
2,079
950
922
952
948
941
938
939
1949* Januarv
February..
March
April 2
May
June 2
July 2
8, 005
7,898
7,807
7,656
7,451
7, 430
7, 309
7, 885
7,879
7,818
7,676
7, 579
7,631
7, 642
9, 625
9, 513
9, 525
9,683
9, 535
9, 520
9, 421
6,265
6,272
6, 314
6, 362
6,405
6, 394
6,378
5,761
5, 759
5,762
5, 773
5,820
5, 783
5,751
3,978
3,956
3,912
3,929
3, 952
3, 984
3,970
1, 906
1,820
1, 841
1,941
2,020
2, 078
2, 149
925
922
914
919
908
913
889
1939 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1 946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average.
._
_
- -
1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during^the pay period ending
nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this
table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 6) which include
proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and
which
are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
2
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS
Average weekly hours of work in manufacturing industries remained practically unchanged in July but were about
1 hour below July 1948.
HOUR S PER WEEK
HOURS PER WEEK
ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
RETAIL TRADE
50
50
MONTHLY
AVERAGE
»
45
45
^\
40
/ \
J
40
35
35
30
30
25
0
TTTT^TTTI
42
44
46
48
1 l i I I 1 I I 1I I
1947
I M I I I II I I i
1948
I
M
1
I 1
1 1
0
1 1 1
1
1
40
1949
i
1
42
1
1
J_J
44
1 1 L 1 1 1 1 i
[
46
48
1 1 1
1947
l l i 1 i 1i i I i I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1948
1949
BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
50
50
vu
ifr \r
\
45
/xN v
40
/
35
/
\J
s
25
T7T777TTT
40
42
44
46
.
I I I 1 1 1 II
48
.1
40
1948
\A^"-I**V» ^
y
/*^~
35
s/jW~
30
^
25
1 I 1 1 I 1. 1 1 M
1947
45
f^
i
30
0
^"^
25
_________________
-10
_~.S~*\*^^
-N^-
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0
1 , 1
1 1 1 1. 1 1 1 1 1
40
1949
42
44
46
48
I 1i i i 1 i i l l I
1947
* SEE NOTE ON TABLE
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
1948
1949
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Hours per week, selected industries]
All manufacturing
industries
Period
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average __
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average _
1948: June
July
August- _
September
October.. . _
_
November
December
1949: Januarv
February _
March
April 3
May
_
June 33
July
1
2
3
4
_.
. ..
_ _ _
_ _
Retail trade
37. 7
40. 6
45. 2
43. 4
40. 4
40. 3
40. 1
40. 2
39. 8
40. 1
39 8
40. 0
39. 8
40. 0
39. 5
39. 3
39. 0
38 3
38. 5
38. 9
38. 8
Data prior to 1948 not exactly comparable with later data.
Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
Preliminary estimate.
Not available; series being revised.
Source: Department of Labor.
Digitized
8 for FRASER
(4)
(4)
43 0
42. 5
40 3
40. 3
40 5
40. 2
40. 1
40. 3
40. 8
41. 0
40 2
39. 7
39 5
40. 2
40 0
40.0
39. 9
40 1
40 1
Bituminous
coal mining
(4)
(4)
27 1
31. 1
43 4
42. 3
41. 6
40. 6
38. 0
39.
9
2
34. 2
39. 4
37 9
38. 6
37 1
38. 5
39 3
38. 0
36. 1
36 4
37. 2
*• Building
construction l
(«)
(4)
32 6
34 8
39 6
39 0
38 1
37 6
37 3
37 9
37. 8
37 8
37 6
37 3
36 4
37 8
37 0
36. 5
36 3
37 4
37 4
WORK STOPPAGES
With no work stoppages of important size in July, man-days of idleness dropped sharply.
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE
I 5
15
M
Number of stoppages
Period
1
M
J
J
A
S
O
OF ECONOMIC ;
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
1939
1941_ _
_
1942
1943 . _ _ _ _ _
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1948: June
Julv
August__
September _
October
November
December
1949: Januarv l l
February .
March *"
April l i
May
June L_ _
Julv
A
1949
1948
Beginning;
in
period
__ _
_ __
_ _
2, 613
4,288
2, 968
3, 752
4, 956
4, 750
4, 985
3, 693
3,419
349
394
355
299
256
216
144
225
225
275
400
450
375
300
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.
Jn effect
during
month
565
614
603
553
468
388
283
400
350
400
500
600
550
525
Workers involved in
stoppages
Beginning
in
period
(thousands)
1, 171
2, 363
840
1,981
2, 116
3, 467
4, 600
2, 170
1, 960
169
218
143
158
110
111
40
70
80
AGO
175
250
575
110
Man-days idle during
period
Tn effect
during
month
(thousands)
Monthly
average
(thousands)
Percent of
estimated
vrorking tiirif
0. 28
. 32
. 05
. 15
.09
. 47
1. 43
243
307
232
267
194
389
93
110
120
540
225
320
660
225
1,484
1,921
349
1, 125
727
3, 169
9,667
2, 883
2,842
2, 220
2, 670
2, 100
2, 540
2, 060
1, 910
713
800
650
3, QOO
. 1, 800
3, 200
4, 600
2, 100
-i!
. 0<
. 28
. 36
. 26
30o
. 27
26
. 09
. 11
. 10
.46
. 25
. 45
. 61
. 31
N
D
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Preliminary estimates indicate that industrial production in August fully recovered the 4 percent drop in July, which
had been due in part to the spreading practice of plant-wide vacations, especially in nondurables. This was the first
rise since October 1948.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
Poifrts in Total Index
250 -
250
200 -
200
P££
150 -
150
100 -
1949
SOURCE:BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
[1935-39= 100, seasonally adjusted]
Points in total index,
1935-39 average for total=100
Indexes, 1935-39=100
Period
1935-39 monthly average
1943 monthly average.
1945 monthly average __ _
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average _
1948 monthly average
1948; July
August
September
October
November
December. _ _
1949: January
February
_
March.
'
A pril
Mav _ _
June 1
July __.
August 1
1
10
Manufactures
Total
industrial
Nondura- Minerals
production Total Durable
goods ble goods
100
239
203
170
187
192
186
191
192
195
195
192
191
189
184
179
174
169
162
169
100
258
214
177
194
198
192
197
199
202
201
199
198
196
193
184
179
175
169
176
100
360
274
192
220
225
219
223
225
231
229
231
227
225
223
212
201
194
186
194
100
176
166
165
172
177
169
177
178
179
178
173
175
173
168
162
161
161
156
162
100
132
137
134
149
155
153
159
156
158
161
156
149
149
136
148
145
134
124
127
Manufactures
Durable
goods
Nondura- Minerals
ble goods
38
136
104
73
83
85
83
84
85
87
87
87
86
85
84
81
76
74
70
74
47
83
78
77
81
83
79
82
83
84
83
81
82
81
79
76
75
75
73
76
15
20
21
21
23
24
23
24
24
24
25
24
23
23
21
23
22
20
19
19
Preliminary estimate. Part of the July decline, especially in nondurables was due to the spreading practice
of plant-wide vacations. The seasonal adjustment factor has not been revised to take account of this.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE
MANUFACTURES
n July production of most manufactured durable goods declined. Output of iron and steel again fell
sharply but made some recovery in August. July production of lumber and products and machinery
was lower but nonferrous metals was about the same as in. June.
'
PERCE NT OF 1935-39 A V E R A G E
PERCENT OF 1935-39 A V E R A G E
IRON AND STEEL
250
200
LUMBER AND
-ry
~Y
1 50
100
' i 1 I luJ. J 1 L
40
42
46
44-
Mill
48
i i i M 1 1 ii i i
ir I i i
1947
SEASONALLY
1 50
1 00
L M 1JM 1 I
40
1949
42
44
MACHINERY
350
I™., i
300
V
250
I
200
1 50
1 00
/
M i l l
48
1 i 1 M
1 II i 1 1 1 II 1 1
1947
j i \ || J ) i j L i
1948
1949
NONFERROUS METALS AND PRODUCTS
MONTHLY
-^
^^ \
250
\
Mill
44 46 48
1 1 1 1 1
AVERAGE
300
150
40 42
46
350
200
*i i i i i i i i i
ADJUSTED
200
i M 1111111i
1948
PRODUCTS
250
r\
\
S
1 M II 1 1 M II
1947
1 1 M 1
1948
1 M 1 1
100
1949
A-t
/ V
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1
40 42
48
44
46
S\
„.
\xT^~]"A
V
1 1 1 M 1 1 M 1 1
1947
M M l l l JJJJ_
i I M I i i i i ii
1948
1949
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE S Y S T E M .
[1935-39= 100, seasonally adjusted]
Iron and
steel
Period
1 935-39 monthly average
1 943 monthly average
,„_.... _ . . . _ . .
1 945 monthly average
- 1946 monthly average
1947 monthlv average.
1948 monthly average
1948: June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1 949 • January
February
March
April
May
June
_
July 1
-
.
_ _ _
_
_
__
_
___
_ _.
Nonferrous
metals and
products
Lumber and
products
Machinery
100
208
183
150
105
208
100
129
109
131
143
145
100
443
343
240
276
277
100
267
204
157
187
193
208
201
207
214
221
224
223
140
142
148
143
147
145
143
277
269
271
273
277
276
277
194
185
1 86
192
192
187
184
228
939
233
219
204
177
156
129
123
129
126
126
124
116
268
262
252
240
232
226
219
183
185
183
167
145
132
130
1
Preliminary estimate. See page 10, footnote 1.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
n
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE
MANUFACTURES
Production of textiles ond chemicals dropped in July. Food processing and petroleum refining
remained at about their June rates,
PERCE S)T CF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS
PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS
300
300
MONTHLV
MONTHLY
AVERAGE
100
0
A/
200
200
J
1
I
40
"
1
1
42
j
1
44
1
1
46
1
~^P~v
1 1 1 I I 1 1 1 1 I1
48
I II
I 1 1 I !!
1947
1 1
100
1 1 I 1 1 11 1 1 1 1
1948
0
p~
1
!
1 1
1
42
44
1
1 1 1
46
1 1 II 1 f 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1
48
MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS
^
^
^-"
JV
40
1949
AVERAGE
1947
1 1 1 1 1 11 1 I 11
1948
CHEMICAL
1949
PRODUCTS
400
400
MONTHLY
AVERAGE
MONTHLY
JL
AVERAGE j\
300
300
**l
200
200
100
100
..
*
•*»-*> "•"
-
"^
J
0
^
1
1
I
"1 J
40 42
1
44
1
1
46
1'
1 i iii 1 1 1 ! 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 ! 1
1 1 II 1 I II 1 1 1
1947
1948
1949
48
0
1
1
40
1
i
42
I
1
44
I
1
46
1
48
1 II M 1 I I 1 II
1947
I!
1 I1 1 1 I 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1948
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
COUNCIL
1949
OF ECONOMIC
[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Textiles and
products
Period
Petroleum
and coal
products
Manufactured food
products
Chemical
products
1935—39 monthly average
1943 monthly average .
1945 monthly average .
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average. _
100
153
146
162
163
169
100
185
235
173
193
218
100
145
151
150
157
159
100
384
284
236
251
254
1948: June
July
August
September
_
October.
November . _
December
174
154
166
168
167
164
156
220
217
221
207
217
227
231
163
160
156
163
161
159
158
256
251
259
257
255
257
257
160
157
142
129
123
127
122
228
221
213
209
207
203
205
160
162
162
162
162
164
163
257
250
245
237
234
231
226
J949: January
Februar}'..
March
April
May
June
July i__
__
_
„
_
_
_.
_
_
_
1
Preliminary estimate. See page 10, footnote 1.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Digitized
12 for FRASER
ADVISERS
WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORS
Steel production in August recovered the July drop and by early September was back to the mid-June rate. Electric power
continued above rates of a year ago. Bituminous coal mining remained at a low rate as the shortened workweek continued.
The August output of cars and trucks was the highest since April 1929.
MILLIONS OF TONS
3
BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS
STEEL
ELECTRIC POWER
1949
1948^
A
S
0
A
S
O
N
O
MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS
3.0
M
J
J
N
A
D
S
0
N
D
SOURCES: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS.
Steel
(thousands of
net tons)
Period
Weekly average:
1947
1948
Week ended:
1948" Aug
7
14
_
21
28
Sept. 4
11
1949:
Aug
6
13
>
__
_
__ _ -
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
_ _
__
_ _
20
27
Sept. 3
10
__
-__
_. .
Electric power, Bituminous
coal
by utilities
(thousands of
(millions of
kilowatt-hours) short tons) 1
Cars and
trucks
(number)
1,637
1, 700
4,821
5,300
2,008
1,906
90, 860
100, 670
1 697
1, 710
1, 712
1, 729
1, 716
1, 703
5 319
5,318
5, 391
5, 478
5,470
5, 166
2,029
2,094
2,065
2,036
2,042
2,236
107,
107,
107,
95,
96,
74,
219
174
924
715
484
744
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
5,466
5,430
5, 579
5, 523
1, 258
1,333
1, 258
1,318
136,
140,
142,
148,
141,
507
147
663
469
380
499
517
539
563
591
552
1
Daily average for week.
Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, and Ward's Automotive Reports.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
96113—49
3
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
13
NEW CONSTRUCTION
The value of new construction, continuing to increase in August, was 2 ! /2 percent above July and less
than 2 percent below the August 1948 peak.
2,000
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2,000
1,500
1,500
MILLIONS
OF DOLLARS
1,000
i
\
i
\I \ I i
Fl
I
1939
I
J
1942 1944 1946 1947 1948
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
1949
1948
1947
*INCL(JDES PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
[Millions of dollars]
Private construction
Total new
construction
Period
1939 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1949: January
February
March
April
_
_ _ _
__„
May
June
Julv
August 2
1
2
Residential
(nonfarm)
317
251
152
688
932
1,214
1,348
1,423
1,454
1,427
1, 355
1,256
1, 129
1,002
905
951
997
1,117
1,239
1,309
1,336
Includes public residential construction,
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.
14
__^
_ _
526
1, 118
345
871
1, 194
1,565
1, 754
1,874
1, 934
1,901
1,814
1, 646
1,447
1,293
1, 172
1,267
1,378
1,585
1 745
1,853
1,902
Total
private
176
110
45
265
438
602
682
707
720
707
670
615
547
475
400
420
445
530
600
650
660
Other
141
141
107
422
493
612
666
716
734
720
685
641
582
527
505
531
552
587
639
659
676
Federal,
State, and
local J
208
867
193
184
262
351
406
451
480
474
459
390
318
291
267
316
381
468
506
544
566
D
NEW HOUSING STARTS
Housing starts declined slightly in July to 96,000 or about the same level as in July 1948. A total
of 549,000 new houses started during the first 7 months of 1949 was just 4 percent below the
number started during the same period of last year.
T H O U S A N D S OF UNITS
125
J
THOUSANDS OF UNITS
125
F
M
A
M
J
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
NOMIC A D V I S E R S
New nonfarm units started
Month
1947
January
February
March
.. _
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
_
November
December
. .
- _
_
- ,
- -
Total
Monthly average
-
1948
39, 300
42, 800
56, 000
67, 100
72, 900
77, 200
81, 100
86, 300
93, 800
94, 000
79, 700
58, 800
53, 500
50, 100
76, 400
99, 500
100, 300
97, 800
95, 000
86,600
82, 200
73,400
63, 600
52, 900
849, 000
931, 300
70, 750
77, 600
1949
50, 000
50,400
69, 400
88, 300
1
95, 000
1
100, 000
1
96, 000
1
Preliminary estimate.
Source L Department of Labor.
15
EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT
AND EQUIPMENT
Estimated nonagricultural business expenditures for plant and equipment in 2nd quarter of 1949 showed, for
the first time in the postwar period, no gain over the corresponding quarter of the previous year. Anticipated
expenditures in 3rd quarter of this year run lower, with electric and gas utilities the only field to show a
continued gain.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
25
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
25
ANN UAL TOTALS
15
TRANSPORTATION AND
ELECTRIC AND GAS
I "UTILITIES
1939
1941
1945
SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE C O M M I S S I O N AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
(Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal]
Period
Total «
Manufacturing
Mining
Transportation
Railroad
1939
_
1941
.
1945
1947 _
1948
. _
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
_ Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948* First quarter .. .
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949' First quarter 3
Second quarter4
Third quarter
1
2
3
4
- .
».
5,200
8, 190
6,630
16, 180
19, 230
12, 640
15, 760
16, 560
19, 760
16, 680
19,280
19, 320
21, 640
17, 840
19, 280
18, 520
1,930
3,400
3,210
7,460
8,340
5,800
7,400
7,480
9, 160
7,200
8,560
8,360
9,280
7,400
7,840
7,360
380
680
440
690
800
600
640
720
840
720
800
800
880
760
800
760
280
560
550
910
1,320
640
880
920
1,200
1,080
1,240
1,320
1,640
1,440
1, 640
1,240
Other
280
340
320
800
700
720
920
800
760
720
760
680
680
520
560
680
Electric and Commercial
miscelgas utilities and
laneous 2
480
710
630
1,900
2,680
1,320
1, 800
2,000
2,480
2,000
2,560
2,760
3,400
2,720
3,240
3,320
1,850
2,490
1,480
4,430
5,390
3,600
4,120
4,640
5,360
4,960
5,360
5,440
5,760
5,040
5,200
5, 120
Excludes agriculture.
Commercial and miscellaneous include trade, service, finance, and communication.
Preliminary estimates of actual expenditures.
Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business.
NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to
current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other
data.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted).
16
NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES
Total proceeds from new corporate security issues more than doubled in the 2nd quarter reflecting a rise in
both fixed and working capital financing.
BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S
BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S
3.0
3. 0
1939
1943
1946
SOURCE: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION.
[Millions of dollars]
Proposed uses of net proceeds
Estimated
net proceeds
Period
New money
Total
1939
1943
1945
1946
1947
1948
quarterly average __ _ _
quarterly average
quarterly average
quarterly average
quarterly average
quarterly average
-
1949: First quarter 2
Second quarter
_
_
81
77
270
820
1, 148
1,392
43
35
159
529
852
1,035
39
42
111
291
296
357
448
210
1,206
869
469
212
_
1,374
2,311
884
2,000
692
1, 654
192
347
^
490
310
__
1, 614
1,663
1,267
1,873
1,400
1,353
1, 045
1,767
845
1,080
764
1,451
555
274
281
316
214
309
221
105
1,056
2,311
850
1,968
699
1,615
152
353
206
343
-
_. _
1947: Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter.
Second quarter..
Third quarter _ _
Fourth quarter
-
_
_
__
._
__
__
Working
capital
529
287
1,475
1,689
1,617
1, 604
__
-
Plant and
equipment
Retirement
of debt and
stock l
1
2
Includes small amount for other purposes.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source ^Securities and Exchange Commission,
17
INVENTORIES AND SALES
July was marked by a sharp drop in manufacturing and wholesale sales, largely because of seasonal
factors. Retail sales declined moderately. Manufacturing and department store inventories continued to
decline. Little change was reported in other trade inventories.
BILL IONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS Of DOLLARS
WHOLESALE
RETAIL
20
20
MONTHLY A V E R A G E
INVEr* T( JRIES
y
f
1 0
.*" s
I0
5 au tS
U~~^
/
\^<^T..-^
40
BILL IONS
4E
44
s/ L
46
! M
48
1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1
1947
M
i iiii1 ii i ii
1948
1 1 1 1
1 1 1
0
1949
40
42
44
46
1949
4 00
T DRIES
\
y
**••.
J
40
42
44
l 1 M
1947
1948
1 1 1 1 1 1 !
/ *"v
y /iNVEr
/
^
1
1 1
46 48
j
200
s/ LEIS
1 1 1 1 1 1 i
">'
:s
S7v
/"
'
«...
,Cx -T*
/
XL
300
)
A ^^r~
0
1948
DEPARTMENT STORES
•»
30
1 0
I i 11 1 i 1 l 11
1947
OF D O L L A R S
INVEf
20
• 11 11 1 11 1 1j
48
MANUFACTURING
40
E7
1 NVE T JRIES
f 1 1 J_ J. I J J I
0
••"•^/
00
0
I
1949
1
40
I I 1 I
I
42
46
44
! 1
48
/'
\
TC)RIES
l 11 1 I 111 I l I
I ML I
Mill
1948
1947
i i 1 1 i 1i i i i i
1949
5 0 U R C E : DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF G O V E R N O R S OF THE FE D E R A L R C S E R V E S Y S T E M
Inventories
3
Manufacturing 1
Retail 2
Wholesale l
Period
Sales
4
Inventories
3
Sales
4
Inventories
3
Sales *
1
3
_
..
_
_
_
„_
3
4
2,505
3, 650
4,330
4,777
6, 138
7,304
7,867
7,796
8,161
8,286
8,376
8, 242
8, 196
7, 163
6,802
7,489
6,962
7,077
7,086
6,603
5,502
7, 620
7,350
7, 502
11,049
12, 953
14, 556
14, 080
14, 145
14, 531
14, 576
14, 779
14, 556
14, 092
13, 939
14, 237
14, 057
13, 766
13, 892
13, 831
3,504
4,624
5,310
6,387
8,399
9,860
10, 784
10, 857
10, 893
10, 968
10, 894
10, 771
11,062
10, 615
10, 588
10, 620
10, 767
10, 726
10, 681
10, 555
Sales
11,516
17, 024
19, 897
17, 924
23, 435
28, 020
31, 713
30, 236
30, 429
30, 710
30, 848
31, 225
31,713
32, 062
32, 070
31, 793
31, 266
30, 913
30, 304
29, 700
5,112
8, 172
12, 603
12, 371
12, 020
15, 671
17, 587
16, 403
18, 169
18, 781
18, 807
17, 980
18, 130
16, 691
16, 424
18, 107
16, 763
16, 295
16, 535
15, 000
102
131
155
166
213
255
291
285
285
290
290
296
291
278
276
283
280
273
265
256
106
133
168
207
264
286
302
311
309
309
308
6
289
305
295
281
277
294
292
285
280
6
Book value, end of period.
Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for
Monthly average for year and total
month
and retail book value of inventories, end of period.
6
for month.
Preliminary estimate.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Not adjusted for seasonal variation.
Adjusted for seasonal variation.
8
_ _
3, 200
4, 151
3,577
4,216
5, 823
7,545
8,315
7,930
8, 100
8,243
8,400
8,507
8,315
8,527
8,567
8,445
8, 186
7,912
7,774
7,830
Inventories
1935-39=100, seasonally
adjusted 6
Millions of dollars
1939
L941
L943
L945
[946
1947
[948
.
L948' July
August .
September
October
November
December
949* January
February
March
April6
May
June0e
July
Department stores
MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
Exports dropped sharpfy in July. The value of imports also dropped.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,600
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1600
1,400 -
-
i,200
1400
1200
- 1000
1,000 -
800
800
- 600
600 -
400
400
- 200
200 -
1936-38
1943
1946
1947
M
1948
A
M
J
J
A
S
0 i\
0
.1
f
V, A
M
J
J
A
5
O
N
D
1947
aQJRCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY
[Millions of dollars]
Exports *
Period
1936-38 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
_
1948 monthly average
1948: June.
July
AugustSeptember.,
October
November _ _
December
1 94 9 : Janu ary
February _ „ _
March
April
May
June _ July
_
__
_ _ __
__
_
„
Imports f
Excess of
exports
247
1, 080
877
849
1,278
1,051
207
282
346
410
478
594
40
798
531
439
801
457
1,015
1,019
990
926
1,021
820
1, 285
625
563
606
560
600
554
720
390
456
384
366
421
266
565
1,094
1,032
1, 159
1, 148
1,077
1, 104
897
590
568
632
534
539
527
456
504
464
527
614
538
578
441
1
3
Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas.
Recorded general merchandise imports.
(Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy,
19
PURCHASING POWER
NATIONAL INCOME
The revised series on national income shows a $12.1 billion drop, or 5 percent, from the peak in 4th quarter
1948 to 2nd quarter IS49. Corporate profits, including the inventory valuation adjustment, accounted for onehalf of the decline while the compensation .f employees accounted for about one-fourth.
B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS
250
B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS
250
ANNUAL TOTALS
ANNUAL RATE'S, S E A S O N A L L Y ADJUSTED
TOTAL NATIONAL
INCOME
FITS AND
INVENTORY VALUATION
ADJUSTMENT;
NET INTEREST:
PROPRIETORS' ANDRENTAL INCOME
'COMPENSATION OF;
EMPLOYEES:
1
939
1944
1947
1948
1
2
1949
3
2*
3
4
1949
1948
1950
S O U R C E : DEPARTMENT OF C O M M E R C E
[Billions of dollars]
Total
national
income
Period
72. 5
183.8
179. 6
201. 7
226.2
1939
1944
1946
1947
1948
Corporate profits and inventory
valuation adjustment
Compensation of
employees
Proprietors'
and rental
income
Net interest
47.8
121.2
117.0
127. 6
140.3
14.7
35. 5
41. 3
45. 1
49. 5
4.2
3. 1
3.0
3.4
3. 8
Total
Profits
before
taxes
5.8
24.0
18.3
25.6
32. 6
Inventory
valuation
adjustment
6.5
24.3
23.6
31.6
34.8
-0.7
-.3
-5. 3
— 6. 0
-2.2
33.0
35. 0
36. 6
34. 5
-4. 5
-2.0
-3.3
+ 1.2
28.4
24.8
+ 2.3
+4.7
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: First quarter. _
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter _
1949: First quarter
Second quarter *
1
2
.
2
215. 1
224. 9
230. 4
234.3
135. 1
137. 7
143.3
144.9
48.0
50.4
49. 9
49. 7
3.6
3. 7
3. 9
4. 1
225. 3
222. 2
142. 5
141.7
47. 8
46.7
4. 2
4.3
Preliminary estimates.
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).
20
28. 5
33.0
33.3
35.7
2
30. 8
29. 5
2
CORPORATE PROFITS
Corporate profits reached their peak rate in 3rd quarter of 1948, and have declined steadily since then, according to revised estimates. In 2nd quarter of 1949, they were $24.8 billion (annual rate), or $11.8 billion below
the peak. Change in replacement costs of inventories was equivalent to two-thirds of the drop.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4 0
40
SOURCE' DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ( E X C E P T AS N O T E D )
[Billions of dollars]
Period
1929
1939
1944
1946
1947
1948
_
__
.
..
.
Corporate
profits
before taxes
9.8
6.5
24.3
23. 6
31. 6
34.8
Corporate
tax
liability
1.4
1.5
13. 5
9.6
12. 5
13.6
Corporate profits after taxes
Total
8.4
5.0
10.8
13.9
19. 1
21.2
Dividend
payments
5.8
3.8
4. 7
5. 8
7.0
7.9
Undistributed
profits
2.6
1.2
6. 1
8. 1
12. 1
13.2
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: First quarter
_ ._
Second quarter
Third quarter
_ _
Fourth quarter __ -
33.0
35.0
36.6
34.5
12. 8
13.7
14. 4
13.6
20. 2
21. 3
22. 2
20.9
7. 6
7. 7
7.9
8. 3
12. 6
13. 6
14.3
12. 6
1949' First quarter l
Second quarter
28. 4
24.8
11. 2
9.7
17.3
15. 1
8.4
8.5
8.9
6.6
1
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data.
NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment. See p. 20 for profits before
taxes and inventory valuation adjustment.
Figures for 1944-48 are revised and do not agree with data previously published in the Indicators. See
Survev of Current Business, July 1949, for details of the revisions.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source:
Department of Commerce (except as noted).
21
PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income, after rising slightly in May, dropped moderately in June, and still further in
July, reaching a level about 3 percent below the high of December 1948. The biggest July drop
was in farm income (part of proprietors' and rental income).
BILLIONS DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
250
A N N U A L RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
ANNUAL TOTALS
TOTAL
' . > x'' PROPR'I ETORS* A NO1" RENT*
SALARIES, WAGES
M i ij i i i i tI
I I \ \ 4
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
1947
SOURCE:
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
I
D
J
F
1948
M
A
M
J
J A S O N
0
I
I
1949
1950
[Billions of dollars]
Total
personal
income
Period
__
72. 6
165.9
176.9
193. 5
211. 9
Salaries, wages, Proprietors' Dividends
and other
and rental and personal
income
interest
labor income
45.7
116.2
111.0
122.0
135. 1
14.7
35.5
41.2
45. 1
49. 5
9. 2
10,6
13.2
14.8
16.2
Transfer
payments
3.0
3.6
11.4
11.7
11. 1
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948' June
__
July
August
September
October
November _
December
1949' January
February
March
April
jVIay
_
June l
July
1
213.4
214. 5
215.4
216. 3
216. 3
216.6
217.0
215. 7
212. 9
212,4
212.5
213. 1
212.4
209.7
134. 5
136.6
138.5
139. 7
140. 1
139. 5
139. 1
138.6
137. 1
135.6
136.8
137. 1
136.2
135.8
51.8
50.8
49. 5
49. 4
49.0
49.8
50.3
49.0
47.2
47.3
46.3
46. 7
46.8
44.5
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
22
!
C O U N C I L OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
D E P A R T M E N T OF COMMERCE
1939
1944
1946
1947
1948
!
J .F M A M J
15. 9
16.0
16. 3
16. 5
16. 8
16. 9
16.9
17.0
17. 1
17. 1
17. 2
17.3
17.3
17. 3
11. 2
11. 1
11. 1
10.7
10.4
10.4
10. 7
11. 1
11. 5
12. 4
12.2
12. 0
12. 1
12. 1
CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING
According to revised estimates, disposable income dropped slightly from 1st to 2nd quarter while expenditures
rose slightly, thus reducing the rate of saving by $1 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
{Billions of dollars]
Disposable
personal
income *
Period
1939
1940.
1941
1942
1943.
1944
1945
1946
1947_
1948
70.2
75. 7
92.0
116.2
131. 6
147.0
151. 1
158. 1
172.0
190.8
Less: Personal
consumption
expenditures
Equals: Personal saving
67.5
72. 1
82.3
90.8
101.6
111. 6
123. 1
147.8
166. 9
178. 8
2.7
3.7
9.8
25.4
30.0
35.4
28.0
10. 3
5. 1
12.0
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter 2 -.
Second quarter
_
__
»
-_
.
_
-
_ _
181. 9
189. 6
195.2
196.2
195.0
194.2
175. 2
178. 7
180.3
180. 9
177.9
178.2
6. 7
10. 8
15. 0
15.3
17. 1
16.0
1
2
Income less taxes.
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Figures for 1942-48 are revised and do not agree with data previously published in the Indicators.
Survey of Current Business, July 1949, for details of the revisions.
Source: Department of Commerce.
See
23
PER CAPITA INCOME *
Per capita disposable income fell about 1 percent from 1st to 2nd quarter of 1949, as measured in current
dollars, or in terms of real purchasing power.
DOLLARS
1,600
ANNUAL R A T E S , SEASONALLY A D J U S T E D
1,200
I
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
3
1949
4
1947
1
2
3
4
I
Per capita disposable
personal
income l
Current
1948 dollars *
dollars
$536
$923
574
981
1,125
691
1,262
867
--_
1,314
970
1,065
1,405
1,389
1, 082
1,342
1, 119
1,282
1, 194
1,302
1,302
.
.
-._
..
..
.
_
__
-.
- .
--- - _
Annual rates, seasonally
adjusted
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
.
Fourth quarter
1949* First quarter
Second quarter *.__ _ __
1
2
3
_ _
- _
_ _
4
1
_
_
1,248
1,296
1,328
1, 328
1,315
1,304
1,273
1,301
1,305
1,319
1,326
1,317
Consumers'
price index 8
1948=100
58. 1
58.5
61.4
68.7
73.8
75.8
77.9
83.4
93. 1
100.0
Not adjusted
for seasonal
variation
98. 0
99.6
101.8
100.7
99.2
99.0
Income less taxes.
Current dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base 1948=100.
The consumers' price index has been roughly adjusted to take account of the understatement from
December 1941-February 1947. This adjustment is in line with the report of the Mitchell Committee. The
unadjusted
index will be found on page 2.
4
Preliminary estimates.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.
Digitized
24 for FRASER
2
1950
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Period
.
I
3
1949
1948
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND D E P A R T M E N T OF LABOR
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
!
"2
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS
Average hourly earnings in manufacturing industries rose slightly in July
recorded, according to preliminary data.
DOLL ARS PER HOUR
DOLLARS PER HOUR
ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
RETAIL TRADE
2.00
2.00
MONTHLY
1.50
1948
„—"="
1948
<y TT
f
AVERAGE
1.50
f )0 LLARS*
*/
1.00
to the highest, level yet
C )0 .LARS""
^S CUF?RfINT
.50
0
40
42
44 46
1 1 1 1 1 TTTi M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M i TTTiTTTTTi 1 1 1
48
1947
1948
0
^
1.00
.50
0
48
1948
D OL
1947
n i TTT M
TTTTT ! 1 1
1948
1949
I /
**Maa
LA
C
~^=n
1.50
>^
ENT DOLLARS
CURF
Ern
DOLLARS
1.00
-/
^
\============^=====^^
i TiTTTTT V
40
46
,—'~y
-X/
J CUF*R
44
2.00
I948y/ DO LLARS*|OS£!
Vl
42
n
BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
jpmrn* *****
2.00
1.50
_
I i I i i i I TTl rTHTl
40
1949
'
DOLLARS
.50
n~lTTTTTT~n
,mmtHt>
hr^
1.00
DOLLARS
CURRE MT
42
44 46
nTTTTTi 1 1 1 1
48
.50
M I I I nTfi 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1947
1948
0
1
1
40
1949
1
1
42
1
1 |
44
46
|
|
^TnTfTi 1 1 iTTi I I M I
48
1947
1948
\
M i!111 M
I
1949
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
[Selected industries]
Manufacturing
Bituminous coal mining
Retail trade
Building construction *
Period
Current
dollars
1939
1941
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
monthly
monthly
monthly
monthly
monthly
monthly
monthly
average
average
average
average average
average
average
_.
$0. 633
.729
1.019
1.023
.084
. 221
.327
1948
dollars 2
Current
dollars
1948
dollars 2
Current
dollars
1948
dollars 3
$1. 090
1. 187
1.381
1.313
1.230
1.311
1.327
$0. 536
. 568
.724
.773
.878
.991
1.067
$0. 923
.925
.981
.992
1.053
1.064
1.067
$0. 886
.993
1. 186
1.240
1.401
1.633
1.899
$1. 525
1. 617
1. 607
1.592
1. 680
1. 754
1. 899
$0. 932
1.010
1.319
1.379
1.478
1. 681
1.848
$1. 604
1.645
1.787
1.770
1.772
1.806
1.848
1.070
1.077
1.080
1.086
1. 080
1.084
1.072
1.067
1.061
1.060
1.066
1. 065
1.078
1.071
1.850
1.936
1.967
1.970
1.959
1.951
1.960
1.844
1.907
1.930
1.933
1.932
1.939
1.958
1.836
1.862
1.874
1.895
1.892
1. 906
1.915
1.830
1.834
1.839
1.860
1.866
1.895
1.913
1. 949
1. 943
1.941
1.932
1.947
4
(4)
()
1.953
1. 969
1.961
1.950
1. 971
4
(4 )
()
1.918
1. 930
1.933
1. 934
1. 931
4
(4)
()
1.922
1.955
1.953
1.952
1.954
1948' June _ July
August
September
October
November
December
.316
.332
.349
. 362
1. 366
1.372
1.376
1.312
1.312
1.324
1.337
1.347
1. 364
1. 375
1949' January
February
March
April 3
Mav
June 33
Julv
1.380
1. 377
1.374
1.374
1.373
1. 380
1.383
1. 383
1.395
1. 388
1.386
1. 390
1.393
1.405
1
2
?
4
1948
dollars 2
Current
dollars
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
4
()
(4)
110
104
102
106
114
Data prior to 1948 not exactly comparable with later data.
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 3948= 100.
Preliminary estimate.
Not available; series being revised.
Department of Labor.
Digitized Sourcet
for FRASER
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
4
(4)
()
112
119
113
116
128
(44)
()
See note 3 to table on pa.ee 24.
25
AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS
.Average weekly earnings in manufacturing industries leveled off in July according to preliminary returns.
DOLLARS PER WEEK
DOLLARS PER WEEK
40 42 44 46 48
1947
40 42 44 46 48
1947
40 42 44 46 48
1947
BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
MONTHLY AVERAGE
1948 DOLLARS*
CURRENT DOLLARS
40 42 44 46 48
1947
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
[Selected industries]
Manufacturing
Period
Current
dollars
1948
dollars 2
Retail trade
Current
dollars
1948
dollars *
Bituminous coal mining
Current
dollars
$36. 44
$23. 88
$21. 17
$41. 07
1939 monthly average
$23. 86
30.86
35.73
21. 94
48. 18
1941 monthly average
29.58
51.27
36.02
62.44
26.58
1944 monthly average
46.08
36.34
52.25
56.98
28.31
1945 monthly average
44.39
58.03
39.03
32.55
43.74
52.45
1946 monthly average
66.86
39.39
52.90
36.67
1947 monthly average
49.25
72.57
39.98
39.98
53. 15
53. 15
1948 monthly average
73.87
40.40
40.52
52.69
52.85
1948: June
67.62
40.58
52. 17
41. 19
52.95
Julv
78. 10
40.42
53.04
54.05
41. 19
August
75.51
39.73
40.48
September
54. 19
53. 18
76.40
39.76
40.32
53.90
October _ _
54.65
73.52
39.43
39.67
54.56
November
54.23
75.79
40.58
40.62
55.01
December
54.96
76.84
41. 87
54.62
41.79
54.51
1949: January
74.31
42. 11
41.56
54. 12
54.83
Februarv
68.41
41.90
54. 13
41.48
March
_
53. 59
72.70
42. 19
52.62
41.81
53. 10
April 3
73. 470
42.91
53.50
42.40
52.86
May
_
_ __
54. 17
53.68
June88 _ _ _
- - - -( 4)
(44)
(44)
54. 53
53. 66
July
()
()
()
1
Data prior to 1948 not exactly comparable with later data.
3
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1948=100, See note 3 to table on page 24.
1
Preliminary estimates.
4
Not available; series being revised.
Source: Department of Labor,
26
1948
dollars 2
$41. 10
50.26
69.47
67.07
69.58
71.81
72.57
73.65
66. 62
76. 64
74. 10
75.34
73.08
75.71
76.99
75.29
69. 10
73.36
74.59
( 44 )
()
Building construction 1
Current
dollars
$30. 39
35. 14
52. 18
53.73
56.24
63.30
68.85
69.53
70.47
70.91
71.29
70.59
69.39
72.33
70.88
70.53
69.83
70.33
71.82
(44)
()
1948
dollars 2
$52. 31
57.23
70.70
68.97
67.43
67.99
68.85
69.32
69.43
69.59
69.96
69.62
68.98
72. 26
71.02
71.46
70.54
70.97
72.69
(44)
()
FARM INCOME
Farmers' cash receipts in July were seasonally higher than in June, but nearly 20 percent lower than in July
1948. This reflected chiefly the substantial drop in prices farmers received. In dollars of 1948 farm purchasing
power, the decrease was about 15 percent.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4
4
II
1939
40
41
42
43
45
46
47
I
I
1
I
I
1947
"INCLUDES CASH FARM INCOME FROM FROM MARKETINGS AND GOVERNMENT p
I
I
I
I
I
S O N D J
48
II
I
I
II
F M A M J
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
J A S O N D J
1948
I
I
F M A
I
I
I
MJ
I
I
1
I
I
J A S O N D
1949
MENTS.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.
Farm income
(millions of
current
dollars) *
Period
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1 948 monthly average
1948: June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1949: January..
February
March
April __
May
June 4 . _ _ _
July 4
1
2
8
4
.
_ _
__
_ _
724
981
1, 340
1 678
1, 765
1 857
2, 110
2 542
2 609
2 437
2 693
2, 722
3, 132
3 714
3, 314
2 740
2 383
1, 783
1, 973
1, 850
1, 944
2 053
o 177
Prices paid by
farmers (incl. Farm income
(millions of
interest and
1948 dollars) *
taxes) 1948=
2
100
49 8
53 0
60 2
65 1
67. 9
69 1
77. 5
92 8
100. 0
100 8
100 8
100 8
100. 4
100. 0
99. 2
99 6
99 6
98. 4
98. 8
98. 8
98.4
98 0
97.6
1, 454
1 851
2, 226
2 578
2, 599
2 687
2, 723
2, 739
2, 609
2,418
2, 672
2, 700
3, 120
3, 714
3,341
2, 751
2, 393
1,812
1, 997
1,872
1,976
2, 095
2,231
Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments.
Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1948=100.
Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, and taxes, 1948=100.
Preliminary estimates.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
27
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Nondurable goods purchases continued to fall in the 2nd quarter but at a much slower rate. Durable goods
(mainly automobiles) ar|d service expenditures advanced.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
ANNUAL TOTALS
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
TOTAL
EXPENDITURES
. DURABLE GOODS'$A
llllfNONDURABLE; GOODslllllj
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
[Billions of dollars]
Personal consumption expenditures
Period
Nondurable
goods
Total
1939
1944
1946
1947
1948__
67.5
111. 6
147. 8
166. 9
178.8
35.3
67. 1
87. 5
96. 2
102. 2
Durable
goods
6.7
7. 1
16. 5
22.0
23. 5
Services
25. 5
37.4
44. 5
48. 8
53. 1
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: First quarter _ _ >
Second quarter
Third quarter _
Fourth quarter
175.2
178. 7
180. 3
180.9
101. 2
102. 4
101.8
103. 3
22. 7
23. 8
24.8
22. 9
51. 3
52. 5
53. 7
54. 8
1949: First quarter
Second quarter *
177.9
178.2
99.9
98. 7
22. 5
23.6
55.4
55.9
1
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Figures for 1944-48 are revised and do not agree with data previously published in the Indicators. See
Survey of Current Business, July 1949, for details of the revisions.
Source: Department of Commerce.
CONSUMER CREDIT
Total consumer credit increased $63 million in July. The further rise in .instalment credit,
particularly for sales of automobiles, was partially offset by a drop in charge accounts.
BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2 0
2 0
!i ST A LMENT" c Ri "oi f 1111111111111111111
1943
1946
J
1947
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S O N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
O
J
F
M
A
M
1948
1947
END OF YEAR
J
J
A
S
O
N
O
1949
END OF MONTH
SOURCE: B O A R D OF G O V E R N O R S OF THE F E D E R A L R E S E R V E SYSTEM.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars]
Total
consumer
credit
outstanding
End of period
1939
1943
1946
1947
1948
« _ ._
... _
1948: June
July
August
September
October
November
December
- __
_
1949: January
Februarv _ __
March
April
May
June 2
July 2
_
__
_
Instalment credit
Total
Automobile
sale
credit
Other sale
credit and
loans
Charge
accounts
Other
consumer
credit *
7, 969
5,378
10, 191
13, 673
16, 319
4,424
2,001
4,000
6,434
8, 600
1,267
175
544
1, 151
1,961
3, 157
1,826
3,456
5,283
6, 639
1,544
1,498
3, 054
3, 612
3,854
2,001
1,879
3, 137
3,627
3,865
14, 669
14, 723
14, 916
15, 231
15, 518
15, 739
16, 319
7,533
7,738
7,972
8, 190
8,233
8,322
8,600
1,602
1,689
1,781
1,858
1,889
1,922
1,961
5,931
6,049
6, 191
6,332
6,344
6,400
6,639
3,352
3, 185
3, 130
3,227
3,457
3,557
3,854
3,784
3,800
3,814
3,814
3,828
3,860
3,865
15, 749
15, 332
15, 360
15,618
15, 856
16, 122
16, 185
8,425
8,339
8,427
8,627
8,887
9, 114
9, 322
1, 965
1,996
2, 105
2, 241
2,386
2,499
2,614
6,460
6,343
6, 322
6,386
6,501
6,615
6,708
3,457
3, 176
3, 148
3,258
3,249
3,282
3, 130
3,867
3,817
3, 785
3,733
3, 714
3,726
3, 733
1
2
Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit.
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
29
MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS
Bank loans dropped about $800 million in July. Banks increased their holdings of Government
securities by $1.5 billion and other securities by $300 million.
ONS OF DOLLARS
125 -
125
100 -
100
-
75 -
50 -
:;:::;:
I
fjl
25 -
1
H
11
1929
1939
1945
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
'
J
J
*
A
S
O
N
D
1948
END OF YEAR
END OF MONTH
PREL IMINA ff Y ES TIMA TE'
[Billions of dollars]
End of period
1929
1939
1945- .
1947
1948.
1948: June
July
August
_
September
October
November
December
1949: January
February
March
_ _
April
Mav
June
July 1
1
_
__
.__
«
__
--
Investments
Total
loans and
investments
Bank loans
49. 5
40. 7
124. 0
116.3
114. 3
113. 9
114.8
115. 1
113. 6
114. 1
114. 2
114. 3
114.5
113. 4
112.5
112.5
113. 4
113. 7
114.7
36.0
17.2
26. 1
38. 1
42.5
39.9
40. 1
40.6
41.7
41.6
42. 3
42.5
42.4
42. 0
42.4
41.3
40.9
41.2
40.4
Total
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
30
13.5
23.4
97.9
78.2
71.8
74.0
74.6
74.5
71.9
72.5
71.9
71.8
72.0
71.4
70. 1
71.2
72.6
72.5
74.3
U.S.
Government
securities
4.8
16. 3
90.6
69. 2
62.6
64.8
65.3
65. 1
62.5
63.3
62.8
62.6
63.0
62.2
60.9
62.0
63.2
63. 0
64.5
Other
securities
8.7
7. 1
7.3
9.0
9.2
9.2
9.3
9.4
9.4
9.2
9. 1
9.2
9. 1
9. 1
9.2
9.2
9.3
9.5
9.8
MONEY SUPPLY
The money supply increased more than $1 billion in July, chiefly a result of a rise in demand deposits.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
200
TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY
( EXCLUDING U.S. GOV'T, DEPOSITS)
.TIME DEPOSITS
IADJUSTED DEMAND DEPOSITS
1939
1943
1946 1947
END OF YEAR
1948
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
1947
M
J
J
A
S
(
J
1948
J
A
S 0
N
D
1949
END OF MONTH
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
[Billions of dollars]
Total money
supply
End of period
1939
_
1943
1946
1947
1948
_._
1948: June
July
August
September..
October
November
December. ».
1949: January
February
March3 «
April3
May
June 33 _ __
July
.
_ _ _ _ _
.. _
_ _ _ _ _ . _ _ __
_.
_ _ _ _
63.3
112.4
164.0
170.0
169. 1
165. 7
166.0
166. 7
166.9
168. 1
168. 1
169. 1
168. 2
166. 3
164. 2
165.5
165.7
165. 6
166.7
Currency
outside
banks
6.4
18.8
26. 7
26. 5
26. 1
25. 6
25. 5
25.6
25.7
25. 7
25. 9
26. 1
25.2
25. 1
25. 1
24.9
25.0
25.0
24. 9
Adjusted
demand
deposits *
29. 8
60. 8
83.3
87. 1
85. 5
82. 7
83. 3
83.8
83. 9
85. 1
85. 2
85. 5
85.4
83.4
81. 1
82.4
82. 6
82.2
83. 3
Time
deposits
3
27. 1
32. 7
54.0
56. 4
57. 5
57. 4
57.3
57.3
57.3
57.3
57. 0
57.5
57.6
57.8
58. 0
58. 1
58. 2
58. 4
58. 6
1
Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection.
2
Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System.
8
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
31
FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM
AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC
The cash deficit of about $2.3 billion during the 2nd quarter compares with a surplus of $1.2 billion during
the same quarter of 1948.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
CASH RECEIPTS
CASH PAYMENTS
JL
1947
1946
1948
1949
1948
1949
EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS
. .
EXCESS OF. CASH
J947
1946
CALENDAR
YEARS
SOURCE: BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT.
[Millions of dollars]
Federal cash
receipts from
the public 1
Calendar years
Federal cash
payments to
the public l
Calendar year total:
41, 426
1946
44, 279
1947
. _ _
44, 920
1948
Quarterly total, not adjusted for seasonal:
12, 632
1946: First quarter
_ __ _
Second quarter
9, 462
Third quarter
9,702
Fourth quarter
9, 630
1947: First quarter .
14, 345
Second quarter
__
_ __
9, 847
Third quarter
10, 220
Fourth quarter
9,869
1948: First quarter
__
15, 037
Second quarter
10, 238
Third quarter
10, 085
Fourth quarter
9, 560
13 122
1949* First quarter 2
8,814
Second quarter
1
Payments of refunds of Government receipts are now reported as deductions
viously,
they were reported as expenditures.
2
Preliminary estimates based on incomplete data.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget.
32
Excess of receipts (-f ) or
payments ( — )
41, 372
38, 584
36, 954
+ 54
-1-5,695
+ 7,967
12, 244
+ 388
12, 008
-—2 547
8,449
+ 1 252
8, 671
+ 959
9, 163
+ 5 182
10, 628
— 781
10, 257
— 37
8,536
+ 1 331
8,637
+ 6 400
9, 033
+ 1 205
8, 798
+ 1 287
10, 486
— 925
9, 964
+ 3 158
11,355
-2,541
from total receipts; pre-
o
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