Full text of Economic Indicators : October 1998
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105th Congress, 2d Session Economic Indicators October 1998 (Includes data available as of November 9, 1998) Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1998 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) JIM SAXTON, New Jersey, Chairman CONNIE MACK, Florida, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES TOM EWING (Illinois) MARK SANFORD (South Carolina) MAC THORNBERRY (Texas) JOHN T. DOOLITTLE (California) JIM MCCRERY (Louisiana) FORTNEY PETE STARK (California) LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana) MAURICE D. HINCHEY (New York) CAROLYN B. MALONEY (New York) SENATE WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) ROBERT F. BENNETT (Utah) ROD GRAMS (Minnesota) SAM BROWNBACK (Kansas) JEFF SESSIONS (Alabama) JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico) PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) CHARLES S. ROBB (Virginia) CHRISTOPHER FRENZE, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS JANET L. YELLEN, Chair JEFFREY A. FRANKEL, Member REBECCA M. BLANK, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—81ST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—1ST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled ‘‘Economic Indicators’’ Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled ‘‘Economic Indicators,’’ and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts prepared by the Art Production Section, Design and Graphics Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $3.00 a single copy ($3.75 foreign), or by subscription at $33.00 per year ($41.25 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 For sale by the U.S. Government Printing Office Superintendent of Documents, Mail Stop: SSOP, Washington, DC 20402–9328 ISBN 0–16–057713–6 ii TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT In the third quarter of 1998, according to advance estimates, current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) rose 4.1 percent (annual rate), real GDP (GDP in chained 1992 dollars) rose 3.3 percent, and the implicit price deflator rose 0.8 percent. [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1990 ................... 1991 ................... 1992 ................... 1993 ................... 1994 ................... 1995 ................... 1996 ................... 1997 ................... 1994: III ........... IV ........... 1995: I .............. II ............. III ........... IV ........... 1996: I .............. II ............. III ........... IV ........... 1997: I .............. II ............. III ........... IV ........... 1998: I .............. II ............ III p ......... 1 GDP Personal Gross Gross conprivate domestic sumption domestic product expendi- investtures ment 5,743.8 5,916.7 6,244.4 6,558.1 6,947.0 7,269.6 7,661.6 8,110.9 6,986.5 7,095.7 7,170.8 7,210.9 7,304.8 7,391.9 7,495.3 7,629.2 7,703.4 7,818.4 7,955.0 8,063.4 8,170.8 8,254.5 8,384.2 8,440.6 8,526.5 3,839.3 3,975.1 4,219.8 4,459.2 4,717.0 4,953.9 5,215.7 5,493.7 4,750.6 4,820.2 4,862.5 4,931.5 4,986.4 5,035.3 5,108.2 5,199.0 5,242.5 5,313.2 5,402.4 5,438.8 5,540.3 5,593.2 5,676.5 5,773.7 5,843.0 799.7 736.2 790.4 876.2 1,007.9 1,043.2 1,131.9 1,256.0 1,007.1 1,043.1 1,058.9 1,029.6 1,030.6 1,053.6 1,075.3 1,118.3 1,167.9 1,166.0 1,206.4 1,259.9 1,265.7 1,292.0 1,366.6 1,345.0 1,361.8 Exports and imports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Net exports ¥71.3 ¥20.5 ¥29.5 ¥60.7 ¥90.9 ¥83.9 ¥91.2 ¥93.4 ¥103.4 ¥95.6 ¥94.7 ¥108.0 ¥74.5 ¥58.4 ¥75.7 ¥94.0 ¥115.5 ¥79.6 ¥93.3 ¥86.8 ¥94.7 ¥98.8 ¥123.7 ¥159.3 ¥168.7 Exports Imports Total Total 557.3 601.8 639.4 658.6 721.2 819.4 873.8 965.4 732.6 763.7 787.8 803.4 835.1 851.5 856.6 863.0 861.4 914.2 930.2 961.1 981.7 988.6 973.3 949.6 935.7 less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. 628.6 622.3 669.0 719.3 812.1 903.3 965.0 1,058.8 836.0 859.2 882.5 911.4 909.6 909.9 932.3 957.0 976.9 993.8 1,023.5 1,047.9 1,076.4 1,087.4 1,097.1 1,108.9 1,104.4 1,176.1 1,225.9 1,263.8 1,283.4 1,313.0 1,356.4 1,405.2 1,454.6 1,332.3 1,328.0 1,344.1 1,357.8 1,362.3 1,361.4 1,387.5 1,406.0 1,408.6 1,418.8 1,439.4 1,451.5 1,459.5 1,468.1 1,464.9 1,481.2 1,490.5 503.6 522.6 528.0 518.3 510.2 509.1 518.4 520.2 520.4 508.3 512.3 511.7 511.2 501.2 517.1 523.1 519.0 514.6 517.0 522.9 521.0 520.1 511.6 520.7 518.7 National defense 373.1 383.5 375.8 360.7 349.2 344.4 351.0 346.0 359.7 343.6 346.1 348.1 345.5 337.9 350.3 355.6 351.3 346.7 341.1 349.1 347.1 346.5 331.6 339.8 343.5 Nondefense 130.4 139.1 152.2 157.7 161.0 164.7 167.4 174.3 160.7 164.7 166.2 163.6 165.7 163.3 166.8 167.4 167.7 167.9 175.9 173.8 173.9 173.6 180.0 180.9 175.2 State and local 672.6 703.4 735.8 765.0 802.8 847.3 886.8 934.4 811.9 819.6 831.8 846.2 851.1 860.2 870.4 882.9 889.6 904.2 922.4 928.6 938.5 947.9 953.3 960.4 971.8 Final sales of domestic product 5,735.8 5,919.0 6,237.4 6,537.6 6,885.7 7,238.9 7,629.5 8,043.5 6,936.3 7,029.6 7,111.8 7,185.6 7,287.7 7,370.4 7,479.1 7,600.6 7,653.6 7,784.6 7,895.2 7,979.9 8,116.2 8,182.6 8,288.7 8,401.3 8,467.8 Gross domestic purchases 1 Addendum: Gross national product 5,815.1 5,764.9 5,937.2 5,932.4 6,274.0 6,255.5 6,618.8 6,576.8 7,037.9 6,955.2 7,353.5 7,287.1 7,752.8 7,674.0 8,204.3 8,102.9 7,090.0 6,992.3 7,191.3 7,096.8 7,265.5 7,189.3 7,318.9 7,233.3 7,379.3 7,313.2 7,450.3 7,412.6 7,571.0 7,515.0 7,723.2 7,643.3 7,818.9 7,708.6 7,898.0 7,829.0 8,048.2 7,952.4 8,150.2 8,062.3 8,265.5 8,162.0 8,353.3 8,234.9 8,508.0 8,369.4 8,599.9 8,421.8 8,695.2 .............. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1 REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT [Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross domestic product Gross private domestic investment Personal consumption expenditures Nonresidential fixed investment Residential fixed investment Exports and imports of goods and services Federal Change in business inventories Net exports Exports 4,132.2 4,105.8 4,219.8 4,343.6 4,486.0 4,605.6 4,752.4 4,913.5 585.2 547.7 557.9 600.2 648.4 710.6 776.6 859.4 220.6 193.4 225.6 242.6 267.0 256.8 275.9 282.8 10.4 ¥61.9 ¥3.0 ¥22.3 7.0 ¥29.5 22.1 ¥70.2 60.6 ¥104.6 27.7 ¥96.5 30.0 ¥111.2 63.2 ¥136.1 1994: III .... 6,629.5 IV ..... 6,688.6 4,498.2 4,534.1 653.2 672.9 269.4 265.9 49.7 ¥111.1 63.6 ¥105.9 722.1 747.3 1995: I ...... II ..... III .... IV .... 1996: I ...... II ..... III .... IV .... 1997: I ...... II ..... III .... IV .... 1998: I ...... II ..... III p .. 4,555.3 4,593.6 4,623.4 4,650.0 4,692.1 4,746.6 4,768.3 4,802.6 4,853.4 4,872.7 4,947.0 4,981.0 5,055.1 5,130.2 5,179.3 698.4 710.2 711.7 722.3 744.8 764.4 790.1 807.0 820.9 848.2 882.2 886.2 931.9 960.4 958.1 259.9 249.5 255.6 262.1 268.0 280.2 279.0 276.3 278.4 282.5 282.3 287.9 298.5 309.1 314.3 54.3 21.7 14.7 20.1 14.4 26.1 47.5 32.1 56.3 79.0 51.0 66.5 91.4 38.2 57.2 ¥109.5 ¥114.7 ¥86.8 ¥74.8 ¥95.5 ¥113.5 ¥140.1 ¥95.9 ¥121.5 ¥131.6 ¥142.4 ¥149.0 ¥198.5 ¥245.2 ¥262.5 763.9 774.0 806.3 826.1 833.6 845.5 849.9 911.1 929.4 963.6 988.1 998.8 991.9 972.1 965.0 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ 6,717.5 6,724.2 6,779.5 6,825.8 6,882.0 6,983.9 7,020.0 7,093.1 7,166.7 7,236.5 7,311.2 7,364.6 7,464.7 7,498.6 7,559.5 Imports Total Total 6,136.3 6,079.4 6,244.4 6,389.6 6,610.7 6,761.7 6,994.8 7,269.8 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment 564.4 626.3 599.9 622.2 639.4 669.0 658.2 728.4 712.4 817.0 792.6 889.0 860.0 971.2 970.0 1,106.1 Nondefense State and local Gross domestic purchases 1 Addendum: Gross national product 541.9 539.4 528.0 505.7 486.6 470.6 465.6 458.0 401.5 397.5 375.8 354.4 336.9 323.5 319.1 308.9 140.5 142.0 152.2 151.2 149.5 146.9 146.2 148.6 708.6 718.7 735.8 746.4 765.7 783.9 802.7 827.1 6,126.7 6,082.6 6,237.4 6,368.9 6,551.2 6,731.7 6,961.6 7,203.7 6,199.8 6,101.6 6,274.0 6,459.0 6,712.7 6,855.0 7,101.1 7,396.5 6,157.0 6,094.9 6,255.5 6,408.0 6,619.1 6,779.5 7,008.4 7,266.2 833.2 1,268.1 496.4 853.2 1,255.8 481.7 347.0 329.6 149.4 771.7 151.7 774.1 6,580.4 6,624.8 6,737.5 6,791.3 6,635.6 6,691.2 328.3 328.4 323.9 313.3 318.7 325.0 319.8 313.0 305.0 311.7 310.2 308.7 293.3 300.3 303.4 150.0 147.6 148.8 141.1 144.5 147.3 146.8 146.1 150.7 148.2 148.2 147.3 151.9 152.9 148.1 6,661.8 6,700.0 6,761.7 6,803.3 6,863.6 6,954.7 6,970.3 7,057.9 7,108.1 7,155.5 7,256.3 7,294.8 7,372.5 7,456.4 7,499.2 6,823.3 6,735.9 6,834.6 6,746.3 6,863.5 6,788.9 6,898.4 6,846.8 6,974.0 6,902.1 7,092.8 6,999.0 7,152.6 7,027.1 7,185.2 7,105.3 7,281.3 7,167.8 7,359.4 7,239.3 7,443.1 7,307.0 7,502.1 7,350.7 7,644.9 7,455.2 7,718.6 7,485.9 7,794.5 .............. 873.4 888.7 893.1 900.9 929.1 958.9 990.0 1,007.0 1,050.9 1,095.2 1,130.5 1,147.8 1,190.4 1,217.3 1,227.5 1 GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. 1,250.4 1,258.0 1,263.8 1,252.1 1,252.3 1,254.5 1,268.2 1,285.0 National defense Final sales of domestic product 1,256.2 1,259.9 1,257.6 1,244.5 1,254.5 1,276.2 1,271.1 1,271.2 1,277.7 1,284.4 1,288.9 1,289.2 1,283.0 1,294.8 1,299.4 478.6 476.2 473.1 454.6 463.5 472.6 467.0 459.5 456.3 460.4 458.9 456.5 446.1 454.1 452.1 777.6 783.7 784.5 790.0 791.0 803.6 804.2 811.8 821.5 824.2 830.1 832.9 837.1 840.9 847.5 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT [Index numbers, 1992=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Personal consumption expenditures Period 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Gross domestic product Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Gross private domestic investment Services Exports and imports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed Exports Imports Total National defense Nondefense State and local .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. ................. ................. ................. 93.60 97.32 100.00 102.64 105.09 107.51 109.53 111.57 92.91 96.82 100.00 102.66 105.15 107.56 109.75 111.81 96.59 98.54 100.00 101.22 103.27 103.72 102.75 100.66 94.62 98.06 100.00 101.46 102.77 103.95 106.08 107.69 91.22 95.78 100.00 103.62 106.85 110.37 113.32 116.61 98.41 99.92 100.00 100.65 101.89 102.40 101.46 100.15 97.80 98.85 100.00 103.71 107.11 110.90 113.02 115.96 98.74 100.31 100.00 100.07 101.23 103.39 101.60 99.53 100.37 100.02 100.00 98.75 99.39 101.61 99.36 95.72 92.93 96.88 100.00 102.50 104.85 108.17 111.34 113.58 92.93 96.47 100.00 101.76 103.64 106.47 109.98 112.00 92.84 97.94 100.00 104.29 107.70 112.13 114.57 117.27 94.91 97.86 100.00 102.49 104.85 108.09 110.48 112.96 1994: III .......... IV .......... 105.39 106.09 105.61 106.31 103.84 103.94 103.32 103.65 107.24 108.27 102.19 102.17 107.46 108.84 101.45 102.19 100.33 100.71 104.83 105.53 103.68 104.26 107.56 108.53 105.20 105.89 1995: I ............ II ........... III ......... IV .......... 106.75 107.24 107.75 108.29 106.74 107.35 107.85 108.29 104.03 103.86 103.63 103.39 103.49 103.88 104.11 104.34 109.11 110.02 110.82 111.52 102.17 102.53 102.50 102.38 110.20 110.67 111.09 111.64 103.12 103.80 103.57 103.07 101.03 102.55 101.84 100.99 107.03 107.44 108.06 110.24 105.41 106.00 106.68 107.85 110.82 110.82 111.32 115.72 106.97 107.97 108.49 108.89 1996: I ............ II ........... III ......... IV .......... 108.91 109.24 109.74 110.23 108.87 109.53 109.94 110.63 103.49 102.83 102.56 102.13 105.12 106.03 106.11 107.04 112.10 112.94 113.70 114.52 101.91 101.36 101.38 101.21 111.94 112.39 113.60 114.14 102.76 102.07 101.36 100.35 100.35 99.79 98.68 98.69 111.57 110.67 111.15 112.00 109.91 109.41 109.85 110.77 115.44 113.67 114.24 114.94 110.04 109.87 110.61 111.38 1997: I ............ II ........... III ......... IV .......... 111.00 111.43 111.76 112.08 111.31 111.62 111.99 112.29 101.92 100.94 100.23 99.63 107.56 107.52 107.72 107.96 115.50 116.29 117.03 117.58 100.77 100.28 100.02 99.61 114.79 115.34 116.49 117.19 100.09 99.74 99.35 98.97 97.39 95.68 95.21 94.73 113.29 113.57 113.52 113.93 111.85 112.02 111.90 112.25 116.70 117.22 117.32 117.85 112.28 112.67 113.06 113.82 1998: I ............ II ........... III p ........ 112.32 112.56 112.79 112.29 112.54 112.82 99.28 98.73 98.09 107.36 107.42 107.81 117.99 118.54 118.98 98.86 98.08 97.18 117.20 117.69 118.36 98.13 97.68 96.96 92.16 91.09 89.97 114.67 114.68 114.72 113.05 113.14 113.21 118.46 118.31 118.30 113.88 114.22 114.67 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES: INDEXES AND PERCENT CHANGES [Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Percent change from preceding period 1 Index numbers, 1992=100 Period 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1993: 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: ............................................................... ............................................................... ............................................................... ............................................................... ............................................................... ............................................................... ............................................................... ............................................................... ............................................................... ............................................................... ............................................................... ............................................................... I .......................................................... II ......................................................... III ....................................................... IV ........................................................ I .......................................................... II ......................................................... III ....................................................... IV ........................................................ I .......................................................... II ........................................................ III ....................................................... IV ....................................................... I .......................................................... II ........................................................ III ....................................................... IV ....................................................... I .......................................................... II ........................................................ III ....................................................... IV ....................................................... I .......................................................... II ........................................................ III p ..................................................... 1 Percent Real GDP (chain-type quantity index) GDP (current dollars) 70.82 75.14 80.87 87.10 91.98 94.75 100.00 105.02 111.25 116.42 122.69 129.89 103.20 104.24 105.29 107.36 108.81 110.68 111.88 113.63 114.83 115.48 116.98 118.38 120.03 122.18 123.36 125.21 127.39 129.13 130.85 132.19 134.27 135.17 136.55 GDP implicit price deflator GDP chain-type price index 87.88 90.47 93.93 97.08 98.27 97.36 100.00 102.32 105.87 108.28 112.02 116.42 101.34 101.85 102.39 103.72 104.49 105.70 106.17 107.11 107.58 107.68 108.57 109.31 110.21 111.84 112.42 113.59 114.77 115.89 117.08 117.94 119.54 120.09 121.06 80.58 83.06 86.10 89.72 93.64 97.32 100.00 102.64 105.09 107.51 109.54 111.57 101.85 102.38 102.83 103.52 104.16 104.74 105.39 106.07 106.74 107.26 107.76 108.30 108.90 109.28 109.77 110.21 110.97 111.45 111.77 112.09 112.33 112.57 112.80 changes based on unrounded data. Quarterly percent changes are at annual rates. Real GDP (chain-type quantity index) GDP (current dollars) 80.58 83.06 86.09 89.72 93.60 97.32 100.00 102.64 105.09 107.51 109.53 111.57 101.84 102.35 102.83 103.51 104.13 104.71 105.39 106.09 106.75 107.24 107.75 108.29 108.91 109.24 109.74 110.23 111.00 111.43 111.76 112.08 112.32 112.56 112.79 5.8 6.1 7.6 7.7 5.6 3.0 5.5 5.0 5.9 4.6 5.4 5.9 3.9 4.1 4.1 8.1 5.5 7.1 4.4 6.4 4.3 2.3 5.3 4.9 5.7 7.3 3.9 6.1 7.2 5.6 5.4 4.2 6.4 2.7 4.1 GDP chain-type price index 3.1 2.9 3.8 3.4 1.2 ¥.9 2.7 2.3 3.5 2.3 3.4 3.9 .1 2.0 2.1 5.3 3.0 4.7 1.8 3.6 1.7 .4 3.3 2.8 3.3 6.1 2.1 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.2 3.0 5.5 1.8 3.3 GDP implicit price deflator 2.6 3.1 3.7 4.2 4.4 3.9 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.9 3.9 2.1 1.8 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.4 1.8 1.6 2.8 1.7 1.2 1.1 .9 .9 .8 2.6 3.1 3.7 4.2 4.3 4.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.9 3.9 2.0 1.9 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.6 2.7 2.5 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.3 1.2 1.8 1.8 2.8 1.6 1.2 1.2 .8 .9 .8 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS–OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of real output (dollars) 1 Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars) Period 1990 ................................................................................. 1991 ................................................................................. 1992 ................................................................................. 1993 ................................................................................. 1994 ................................................................................. 1995 ................................................................................. 1996 ................................................................................. 1997 ................................................................................. 1995: I ........................................................................... II .......................................................................... III ........................................................................ IV ......................................................................... 1996: I ........................................................................... II .......................................................................... III ........................................................................ IV ......................................................................... 1997: I ........................................................................... II .......................................................................... III ........................................................................ IV ......................................................................... 1998: I ........................................................................... II .......................................................................... Current dollars Chained (1992) dollars 3,084.0 3,132.1 3,262.6 3,430.4 3,709.7 3,920.4 4,134.4 4,414.5 3,844.1 3,879.3 3,956.5 4,001.7 4,033.0 4,106.4 4,168.9 4,229.3 4,307.1 4,375.7 4,461.9 4,513.2 4,574.2 4,618.8 3,210.2 3,168.8 3,262.6 3,374.4 3,586.3 3,745.5 3,914.8 4,154.4 3,682.3 3,710.0 3,776.2 3,813.5 3,826.9 3,891.0 3,944.2 3,997.1 4,054.5 4,117.0 4,198.5 4,247.5 4,309.2 4,352.0 Total cost and profit 2 1 Output is measured by GDP of nonfinancial corporate business in chained (1992) dollars. 2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. Consumption of fixed capital 0.961 .988 1.000 1.017 1.034 1.047 1.056 1.063 1.044 1.046 1.048 1.049 1.054 1.055 1.057 1.058 1.062 1.063 1.063 1.063 1.061 1.061 0.096 .101 .101 .101 .101 .100 .100 .100 .099 .100 .100 .101 .101 .100 .100 .100 .100 .100 .100 .100 .099 .100 Indirect business tax, etc.3 0.092 .100 .103 .106 .108 .106 .105 .105 .108 .107 .105 .105 .106 .105 .105 .105 .105 .106 .105 .105 .105 .104 Compensation of employees 0.640 .660 .673 .679 .677 .682 .685 .691 .684 .685 .680 .681 .681 .684 .686 .687 .690 .691 .688 .695 .697 .699 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Total 0.086 .085 .091 .103 .122 .130 .140 .143 .125 .126 .135 .135 .139 .140 .141 .141 .142 .143 .147 .141 .139 .136 Profits tax liability 0.030 .027 .028 .031 .036 .037 .039 .041 .037 .036 .037 .037 .038 .039 .039 .039 .041 .040 .042 .040 .037 .037 Profits after tax 4 0.056 .058 .063 .072 .086 .094 .101 .102 .088 .090 .098 .098 .101 .101 .102 .102 .101 .102 .104 .101 .102 .099 Net interest 0.046 .042 .032 .028 .027 .028 .026 .023 .028 .028 .028 .028 .027 .026 .026 .025 .025 .024 .023 .022 .022 .022 3 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4 With 3 NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] National income Period 1991 ......................................... 1992 ......................................... 1993 ......................................... 1994 ......................................... 1995 ........................................ 1996 ........................................ 1997 ........................................ 1994: III ................................. IV ................................. 1995: I ................................... II .................................. III ................................ IV ................................. 1996: I ................................... II .................................. III ................................ IV ................................. 1997: I ................................... II .................................. III ................................ IV ................................. 1998: I ................................... II .................................. III p ............................... 1 Includes 4,761.6 4,990.4 5,266.8 5,590.7 5,923.7 6,256.0 6,646.5 5,636.1 5,747.3 5,816.1 5,873.3 5,965.3 6,039.8 6,119.6 6,226.8 6,303.6 6,373.9 6,509.0 6,604.5 6,704.8 6,767.9 6,875.0 6,945.5 ................ Compensation of employees1 Proprietors’ income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Farm 3,457.9 3,644.9 3,814.9 4,012.0 4,208.9 4,409.0 4,687.2 4,028.7 4,093.9 4,150.3 4,183.6 4,230.0 4,271.6 4,303.5 4,382.4 4,444.4 4,505.9 4,586.3 4,649.2 4,715.5 4,798.0 4,882.8 4,945.2 5,009.7 Nonfarm 29.3 37.1 32.4 36.9 22.4 38.9 35.5 33.2 29.1 22.8 20.4 19.1 27.4 34.8 41.0 43.2 36.7 36.4 37.8 36.3 31.4 27.4 27.7 24.2 347.2 386.7 418.4 434.7 465.6 488.8 515.8 438.4 447.0 455.7 462.0 470.7 474.1 481.3 487.0 490.3 496.4 504.1 512.1 520.2 526.6 536.8 544.0 550.7 employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment 67.9 79.4 105.7 124.4 133.7 150.2 158.2 130.1 128.9 131.1 133.3 131.9 138.7 145.0 148.4 152.1 155.3 157.5 158.0 158.6 158.8 158.3 161.0 163.6 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total 411.3 428.0 492.8 570.5 672.4 750.4 817.9 590.1 617.7 629.3 653.9 698.6 707.8 735.9 748.3 755.4 762.0 794.3 815.5 840.9 820.8 829.2 820.6 ................ Total Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment 378.2 398.9 456.9 519.1 613.0 679.0 741.2 535.0 560.3 572.6 595.5 637.4 646.5 667.0 677.1 683.0 688.7 720.5 740.1 763.7 740.7 744.3 731.3 ................ 374.2 406.4 465.4 535.1 635.6 680.2 734.4 556.2 583.9 610.5 629.4 650.8 651.8 669.9 683.4 681.9 685.7 712.4 729.8 758.9 736.4 719.1 723.5 ................ 4.0 ¥7.5 ¥8.5 ¥16.1 ¥22.6 ¥1.2 6.9 ¥21.2 ¥23.6 ¥37.9 ¥33.9 ¥13.4 ¥5.3 ¥2.9 ¥6.2 1.2 3.0 8.1 10.3 4.8 4.3 25.3 7.8 ................ Capital consumption adjustment Net interest 33.1 29.1 36.0 51.4 59.4 71.4 76.6 55.1 57.4 56.7 58.3 61.2 61.3 68.9 71.2 72.3 73.3 73.8 75.5 77.2 80.1 84.9 89.4 96.8 448.0 414.3 402.5 412.3 420.6 418.6 432.0 415.6 430.7 426.9 420.2 415.2 420.2 419.2 419.7 418.1 417.5 430.4 431.8 433.3 432.4 440.5 447.1 .............. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of chained (1992) dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Durable goods Period 1991 ............................... 1992 ............................... 1993 ............................... 1994 ............................... 1995 ............................... 1996 ............................... 1997 ............................... 1994: III ....................... IV ........................ 1995: I .......................... II ........................ III ....................... IV ....................... 1996: I .......................... II ........................ III ....................... IV ....................... 1997: I .......................... II ........................ III ....................... IV ....................... 1998: I .......................... II ........................ III p ..................... Total personal consumption expenditures Total durable goods Motor vehicles and parts 4,105.8 4,219.8 4,343.6 4,486.0 4,605.6 4,752.4 4,913.5 4,498.2 4,534.1 4,555.3 4,593.6 4,623.4 4,650.0 4,692.1 4,746.6 4,768.3 4,802.6 4,853.4 4,872.7 4,947.0 4,981.0 5,055.1 5,130.2 5,179.3 462.0 488.5 523.8 561.2 589.1 626.1 668.6 561.7 576.6 575.2 583.5 595.3 602.4 611.0 629.5 626.5 637.5 656.3 653.8 679.6 684.8 710.3 729.4 729.4 193.2 206.9 218.9 230.0 230.6 235.0 239.3 227.3 232.6 227.4 229.5 232.6 232.8 235.9 237.9 232.8 233.3 239.1 230.8 244.4 242.7 247.8 258.9 248.3 Furniture and household equipment 177.0 189.4 207.8 229.4 251.2 277.5 307.7 232.2 240.3 242.6 246.6 254.1 261.4 265.0 277.7 280.0 287.2 296.2 303.7 312.7 318.1 335.8 339.3 351.5 Nondurable goods Other 91.8 92.3 97.2 102.3 109.0 117.1 127.7 102.9 104.5 106.5 108.7 110.3 110.5 112.3 117.0 117.6 121.5 125.8 125.9 128.5 130.8 135.1 138.6 140.1 Total nondurable goods 1,302.9 1,321.8 1,351.0 1,389.9 1,417.6 1,450.9 1,486.3 1,393.2 1,402.5 1,410.4 1,415.9 1,418.5 1,425.6 1,433.5 1,450.4 1,454.7 1,465.1 1,477.9 1,477.1 1,495.7 1,494.3 1,521.2 1,540.9 1,549.6 1 Includes other items, not shown separately. NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. 4 Food 659.6 660.0 675.3 687.9 689.5 692.6 699.3 687.9 689.5 689.5 689.6 688.9 690.0 691.1 693.4 691.4 694.3 699.4 697.3 700.6 699.9 706.8 716.3 717.9 Clothing Gasoline and and oil shoes 215.9 225.5 234.2 247.1 260.1 276.1 288.4 248.1 254.7 256.4 258.4 262.1 263.5 268.0 276.4 279.8 280.3 286.0 283.3 291.9 292.3 307.4 311.4 312.0 103.4 106.6 108.7 109.8 114.3 116.0 117.9 109.9 110.7 113.5 114.2 114.3 115.3 114.7 116.2 116.0 117.0 116.7 118.3 118.4 118.1 118.5 118.4 121.5 Services Fuel oil and coal 10.8 10.9 10.7 10.7 11.2 11.2 10.3 10.7 10.2 10.4 11.4 11.3 11.7 11.9 11.1 11.3 10.6 9.8 10.4 10.7 10.1 9.2 9.7 10.0 Other 313.2 318.8 322.1 334.3 343.1 356.7 373.0 336.7 337.8 340.9 342.8 342.7 346.0 348.9 355.0 358.2 364.8 368.3 369.9 377.0 376.8 383.5 389.2 392.7 Total services 1 Housing Medical care 2,341.0 2,409.4 2,468.9 2,535.5 2,599.6 2,676.7 2,761.5 2,543.8 2,555.9 2,570.4 2,594.8 2,610.3 2,622.9 2,648.5 2,668.4 2,688.1 2,701.7 2,722.1 2,743.6 2,775.4 2,804.8 2,829.3 2,866.8 2,905.4 635.2 646.8 654.7 674.3 688.6 700.9 717.4 677.0 681.1 684.9 687.0 689.7 692.7 695.7 698.6 702.6 706.7 711.2 715.1 719.5 723.9 728.7 732.7 737.0 621.6 646.6 655.3 662.1 675.0 686.6 701.7 663.2 666.0 669.1 673.0 677.2 680.9 679.5 685.6 687.7 693.5 694.8 698.6 704.2 709.4 714.9 721.6 725.4 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Retail sales of new passenger cars and light trucks (millions of units) 12.3 12.8 13.9 15.0 14.7 15.0 15.0 14.9 15.3 14.7 14.4 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.0 14.9 15.3 14.5 15.2 15.0 15.1 16.1 14.6 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $12.1 billion (annual rate) in September, following an increase of $29.6 billion in August. Wages and salaries increased $5.3 billion in September, following an increase of $30.2 billion in August. [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Proprietors’ income 3 Period 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Total personal income Wage and salary disbursements 1 Other labor income 1 2 Farm Nonfarm Rental income of persons 4 Personal dividend income Personal interest income Transfer payments 5 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance ............................................................. ............................................................. ............................................................. ............................................................. ............................................................. ............................................................. ............................................................. ............................................................. 4,796.2 4,965.6 5,255.7 5,481.0 5,757.9 6,072.1 6,425.2 6,784.0 2,757.5 2,827.6 2,986.4 3,089.6 3,240.7 3,428.5 3,631.1 3,889.8 300.6 322.7 351.3 385.1 405.0 401.6 387.0 392.9 35.4 29.3 37.1 32.4 36.9 22.4 38.9 35.5 338.6 347.2 386.7 418.4 434.7 465.6 488.8 515.8 61.0 67.9 79.4 105.7 124.4 133.7 150.2 158.2 134.9 137.7 137.9 147.1 171.0 192.8 248.2 260.3 704.4 699.2 667.2 651.0 668.1 704.9 719.4 747.3 687.8 769.9 858.2 912.0 954.7 1,015.9 1,068.0 1,110.4 223.9 235.8 248.4 260.3 277.5 293.6 306.3 326.2 1997: Sept .................................................. Oct .................................................... Nov ................................................... Dec ................................................... 6,850.1 6,875.5 6,910.9 6,928.3 3,937.1 3,964.0 3,998.0 4,007.7 395.3 394.4 396.9 399.7 35.1 33.5 31.5 29.1 524.5 525.4 526.2 528.4 158.7 158.7 158.8 158.9 260.7 261.0 261.3 261.4 751.7 752.5 753.0 753.3 1,116.8 1,117.5 1,119.3 1,124.7 329.7 331.7 334.1 334.9 1998: Jan ................................................... Feb ................................................... Mar ................................................... Apr ................................................... May .................................................. June ................................................. July r ................................................. Aug r ................................................. Sept p ................................................ 6,970.5 7,007.3 7,033.9 7,055.3 7,085.9 7,104.4 7,131.8 7,161.4 7,173.5 4,040.0 4,066.4 4,079.3 4,097.6 4,124.3 4,131.0 4,153.5 4,183.7 4,189.0 401.7 402.8 403.8 404.7 405.7 406.6 407.5 408.3 409.2 28.2 27.3 26.6 27.2 27.7 28.2 26.2 24.3 22.3 531.6 536.6 542.2 543.0 542.5 546.6 550.2 549.6 552.3 158.3 158.4 158.3 159.4 160.9 162.6 163.1 163.5 164.1 261.5 261.6 261.8 262.0 262.1 262.3 262.4 262.8 263.7 754.7 757.0 759.3 761.2 762.8 765.0 766.5 767.5 768.7 1,133.8 1,138.4 1,144.7 1,143.8 1,145.3 1,148.3 1,150.2 1,151.7 1,154.7 339.3 341.2 342.2 343.6 345.5 346.2 347.7 350.0 350.5 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. 2 Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. capital consumption adjustment. mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4 With 5 Consists 5 DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME According to advance estimates, per capita disposable personal income in chained (1992) dollars rose at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the third quarter of 1998. Period Personal income Less: Personal tax and nontax payments Equals: Disposable personal income Less: Personal outlays 1 Equals: Personal saving Disposable personal income in billions of chained (1992) dollars Per capita disposable personal income Current dollars Billions of dollars 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 ................... ................... ................... ................... ................... ................... ................... 4,965.6 5,255.7 5,481.0 5,757.9 6,072.1 6,425.2 6,784.0 624.8 650.5 690.0 739.1 795.0 890.5 989.0 4,340.9 4,605.1 4,791.1 5,018.9 5,277.0 5,534.7 5,795.1 Chained (1992) dollars Per capita personal consumption expenditures Current dollars Chained (1992) dollars Dollars 4,097.4 4,341.0 4,580.7 4,842.1 5,097.2 5,376.2 5,674.1 243.5 264.1 210.3 176.8 179.8 158.5 121.0 4,483.5 4,605.1 4,666.7 4,772.9 4,906.0 5,043.0 5,183.1 17,179 18,029 18,558 19,251 20,050 20,840 21,633 Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population, including Armed Forces overseas (thousands) 2 Percent 17,744 18,029 18,077 18,308 18,640 18,989 19,349 15,732 16,520 17,273 18,093 18,822 19,639 20,508 16,249 16,520 16,825 17,207 17,499 17,894 18,342 ¥1.2 1.6 .3 1.3 1.8 1.9 1.9 5.6 5.7 4.4 3.5 3.4 2.9 2.1 252,680 255,432 258,161 260,705 263,194 265,579 267,880 18,369 18,541 18,621 18,551 18,628 18,761 18,860 18,919 19,079 19,096 19,217 19,315 19,385 19,478 19,632 19,719 19,799 18,199 18,419 18,542 18,762 18,922 19,061 19,299 19,600 19,717 19,938 20,235 20,329 20,660 20,807 21,078 21,394 21,599 17,232 17,326 17,371 17,476 17,544 17,602 17,727 17,894 17,934 18,021 18,178 18,213 18,447 18,529 18,770 19,010 19,145 1.8 3.8 1.7 ¥1.5 1.7 2.9 2.1 1.3 3.4 .4 2.6 2.1 1.5 1.9 3.2 1.8 1.6 3.7 4.0 4.1 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.2 2.6 3.1 2.6 2.4 2.6 1.7 1.7 1.2 .4 .1 261,040 261,692 262,235 262,847 263,527 264,169 264,680 265,258 265,887 266,491 266,987 267,545 268,171 268,815 269,309 269,867 270,524 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1994: III ........... IV ........... 1995: I .............. II ............ III ........... IV ........... 1996: I .............. II ............ III ........... IV ........... 1997: I .............. II ............ III ........... IV ........... 1998: I .............. II ............ III p ......... 5,804.1 5,911.2 5,979.5 6,030.3 6,093.5 6,185.0 6,284.3 6,390.0 6,476.7 6,549.8 6,666.7 6,743.6 6,820.9 6,904.9 7,003.9 7,081.9 7,155.6 739.9 753.0 767.2 795.7 799.0 818.3 849.7 893.3 899.4 919.7 955.6 975.8 999.0 1,025.5 1,066.8 1,092.9 1,113.2 5,064.2 5,158.2 5,212.3 5,234.7 5,294.5 5,366.8 5,434.6 5,496.7 5,577.3 5,630.1 5,711.2 5,767.9 5,821.8 5,879.4 5,937.1 5,988.9 6,042.4 4,876.1 4,950.7 4,997.4 5,070.6 5,132.1 5,188.8 5,261.1 5,356.2 5,405.2 5,482.5 5,575.8 5,616.0 5,723.3 5,781.2 5,864.0 5,963.3 6,036.4 188.1 207.5 214.9 164.0 162.4 178.0 173.5 140.5 172.2 147.6 135.4 151.9 98.5 98.2 73.0 25.6 5.9 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by persons, and personal transfer payments to rest of the world (net). 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. 6 4,795.2 4,852.1 4,883.0 4,876.0 4,909.1 4,956.1 4,992.0 5,018.4 5,072.8 5,089.0 5,130.8 5,167.5 5,198.4 5,235.8 5,287.1 5,321.5 5,356.0 19,400 19,711 19,876 19,915 20,091 20,316 20,533 20,722 20,976 21,127 21,391 21,558 21,709 21,871 22,046 22,192 22,336 Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the second quarter of 1998, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income fell $11.1 billion (annual rate) and net farm income fell $8.5 billion. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from farming Gross farm income Period Cash marketing receipts Total 1 Total 1990 ......................................................... 1991 ......................................................... 1992 ......................................................... 1993 .......................................................... 1994 ......................................................... 1995 ......................................................... 1996 ......................................................... 1997 .......................................................... 1995: I ..................................................... II .................................................... III .................................................. IV ................................................... 1996: I ..................................................... II .................................................... III .................................................. IV ................................................... 1997: I ..................................................... II .................................................... III .................................................. IV ................................................... 1998: I ..................................................... II p ................................................. 198.0 191.9 200.5 204.1 215.8 210.1 235.8 238.3 208.2 208.4 212.8 211.0 232.7 237.1 247.5 225.9 248.3 231.1 241.4 232.3 239.1 228.0 169.5 167.9 171.4 177.8 181.2 188.1 199.6 208.7 185.2 187.7 194.1 185.5 200.9 203.1 203.5 190.9 218.3 208.7 207.2 200.4 208.8 206.1 1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. Livestock and products 89.2 85.8 85.6 90.2 88.2 87.0 93.0 96.6 87.0 85.3 86.2 89.6 90.2 90.7 96.8 94.3 94.1 95.5 100.4 96.3 90.4 93.6 Crops 80.3 82.1 85.7 87.6 93.1 101.1 106.6 112.1 98.2 102.4 107.8 95.9 110.7 112.4 106.7 96.5 124.2 113.2 106.9 104.1 118.3 112.5 Value of inventory changes 2 3.3 ¥.2 4.2 ¥4.2 8.3 ¥5.1 7.8 ¥.4 ¥6.4 ¥5.9 ¥4.7 ¥3.6 9.7 9.0 6.9 5.4 ¥.5 ¥.5 ¥.4 ¥.3 ¥1.4 ¥1.2 Production expenses 153.3 153.3 152.9 160.5 167.5 174.1 182.4 188.4 174.4 173.6 178.1 170.4 184.1 182.9 184.2 178.5 193.3 192.4 187.7 180.3 196.1 193.5 Net farm income 44.7 38.6 47.5 43.6 48.3 36.0 53.4 49.8 33.8 34.8 34.7 40.6 48.6 54.1 63.3 47.4 55.0 38.6 53.8 52.0 43.0 34.5 NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Credit Corporation loans and operator households. Quarterly data plotted for 1989 through 1993 in chart do not reflect previous revisions to annual data in table. Source: Department of Agriculture. 7 CORPORATE PROFITS In the second quarter of 1998, corporate profits before tax rose $4.4 billion (annual rate) and profits after tax rose $2.6 billion. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment1 Profits after tax Domestic industries Period Profits before tax Nonfinancial Total2 Total Financial Total3 Manufacturing Wholesale Tax liability Total Dividends Undistributed profits Inventory valuation adjustment Retail ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ 358.2 378.2 398.9 456.9 519.1 613.0 679.0 741.2 292.5 309.5 334.0 383.0 445.7 523.4 582.6 642.2 68.6 87.4 83.7 82.9 69.4 104.6 110.7 130.0 223.8 222.1 250.3 300.1 376.3 418.8 471.8 512.3 112.3 92.7 96.3 116.7 151.6 183.9 195.6 214.4 17.2 20.6 23.0 24.3 29.4 26.2 37.9 49.8 20.6 26.1 32.2 38.9 46.0 43.3 51.8 61.2 371.7 374.2 406.4 465.4 535.1 635.6 680.2 734.4 140.5 133.4 143.0 165.2 186.6 211.0 226.1 246.1 231.2 240.8 263.4 300.2 348.5 424.6 454.1 488.3 143.9 147.2 147.9 157.6 182.4 205.3 261.9 275.1 87.3 93.6 115.5 142.6 166.1 219.3 192.3 213.2 ¥13.5 4.0 ¥7.5 ¥8.5 ¥16.1 ¥22.6 ¥1.2 6.9 1994: III ........ IV ........ 535.0 560.3 460.7 485.2 81.3 80.0 379.5 405.3 151.6 166.2 27.3 28.6 47.2 47.8 556.2 583.9 194.6 206.2 361.6 377.7 186.0 195.3 175.6 182.4 ¥21.2 ¥23.6 1995: I .......... II ......... III ........ IV ........ 572.6 595.5 637.4 646.5 487.5 502.3 553.9 550.0 93.9 104.2 116.0 104.4 393.6 398.1 438.0 445.6 170.3 176.9 193.0 195.4 22.8 21.2 29.7 31.1 42.5 41.9 43.5 45.3 610.5 629.4 650.8 651.8 202.9 207.6 219.1 214.3 407.6 421.9 431.6 437.5 197.1 199.0 204.4 220.7 210.5 222.8 227.2 216.8 ¥37.9 ¥33.9 ¥13.4 ¥5.3 1996: I .......... II ......... III ........ IV ........ 667.0 677.1 683.0 688.7 574.4 583.7 589.4 582.8 116.5 116.6 111.7 98.0 457.9 467.0 477.7 484.8 191.6 195.0 197.3 198.6 35.6 31.9 37.7 46.3 49.7 52.5 53.8 51.2 669.9 683.4 681.9 685.7 223.9 228.6 227.7 224.2 446.0 454.8 454.2 461.5 247.6 257.1 269.1 273.6 198.4 197.6 185.1 187.9 ¥2.9 ¥6.2 1.2 3.0 1997: I .......... II ......... III ........ IV ........ 720.5 740.1 763.7 740.7 624.0 634.7 661.4 648.7 127.7 128.7 128.6 134.7 496.3 506.0 532.8 514.0 200.8 215.5 228.9 212.3 48.3 50.5 52.7 47.6 60.8 59.1 62.7 62.2 712.4 729.8 758.9 736.4 238.8 241.9 254.2 249.3 473.6 487.8 504.7 487.1 274.1 274.7 275.1 276.4 199.5 213.2 229.5 210.6 8.1 10.3 4.8 4.3 1998: I .......... II ......... III p ..... 744.3 731.3 ................ 645.8 633.9 .............. 136.3 134.4 .............. 509.4 499.5 .............. 197.1 194.6 ................ 51.5 53.5 .............. 67.4 67.4 .............. 719.1 723.5 .............. 239.9 241.6 .............. 479.2 481.8 .............. 277.3 278.1 279.0 201.8 203.7 .............. 25.3 7.8 ................ 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. rest of the world, not shown separately. industries not shown separately. 2Includes 3Includes 8 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. REAL GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT In the third quarter of 1998, according to advance estimates, nonresidential fixed investment in chained (1992) dollars fell $2.3 billion (annual rate) and residential investment rose $5.2 billion. There was an increase of $57.2 billion in inventories following an increase of $38.2 billion in the second quarter. [Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Fixed investment Period 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Gross private domestic investment Change in business inventories Nonresidential Total Total Producers’ durable equipment Residential Structures Total Nonfarm .................................................................................... .................................................................................... .................................................................................... .................................................................................... .................................................................................... .................................................................................... .................................................................................... .................................................................................... 815.0 738.1 790.4 863.6 975.7 996.1 1,084.1 1,206.4 805.8 741.3 783.4 842.8 915.5 966.0 1,050.6 1,138.0 585.2 547.7 557.9 600.2 648.4 710.6 776.6 859.4 203.3 181.6 169.2 170.8 172.5 180.7 189.7 203.2 381.9 366.2 388.7 429.6 476.8 531.7 589.8 660.9 220.6 193.4 225.6 242.6 267.0 256.8 275.9 282.8 10.4 ¥3.0 7.0 22.1 60.6 27.7 30.0 63.2 7.8 ¥1.2 2.0 29.5 49.0 37.7 23.2 58.8 1994: III ............................................................................ IV ............................................................................ 972.2 1,003.0 922.7 938.5 653.2 672.9 174.0 175.0 480.0 499.1 269.4 265.9 49.7 63.6 38.2 58.7 1995: I .............................................................................. II ............................................................................. III ............................................................................ IV ............................................................................ 1,013.5 982.0 983.4 1,005.4 957.1 957.8 965.8 983.1 698.4 710.2 711.7 722.3 179.5 181.7 181.5 179.8 520.4 529.9 531.8 544.8 259.9 249.5 255.6 262.1 54.3 21.7 14.7 20.1 62.5 36.7 30.6 20.8 1996: I .............................................................................. II ............................................................................. III ............................................................................ IV ............................................................................ 1,029.3 1,072.8 1,118.1 1,116.1 1,011.4 1,043.5 1,067.1 1,080.4 744.8 764.4 790.1 807.0 182.6 185.9 189.9 200.6 565.0 581.6 604.0 608.8 268.0 280.2 279.0 276.3 14.4 26.1 47.5 32.1 10.4 15.2 38.6 28.7 1997: I .............................................................................. II ............................................................................. III ............................................................................ IV ............................................................................ 1,156.6 1,211.3 1,215.8 1,241.9 1,096.0 1,127.0 1,159.3 1,169.5 820.9 848.2 882.2 886.2 202.5 199.3 205.2 205.7 621.0 653.8 682.6 686.4 278.4 282.5 282.3 287.9 56.3 79.0 51.0 66.5 56.2 72.1 44.0 62.7 1998: I .............................................................................. II ............................................................................ III p ......................................................................... 1,321.8 1,306.5 1,330.0 1,224.9 1,264.1 1,267.8 931.9 960.4 958.1 203.1 201.9 198.6 738.8 771.3 773.3 298.5 309.1 314.3 91.4 38.2 57.2 85.9 29.9 49.2 NOTE.—See p. 10 for further detail on fixed investment by type. Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermedi- ate aggregates. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9 REAL PRIVATE FIXED INVESTMENT BY TYPE [Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nonresidential Structures Period Total nonresidential 1990 ........... 1991 ........... 1992 ........... 1993 ........... 1994 ........... 1995 ........... 1996 ........... 1997 ........... 1994: III ... IV .... 1995: I ...... II ..... III ... IV .... 1996: I ...... II ..... III ... IV .... 1997: I ...... II ..... III ... IV .... 1998: I ...... II .... III p 1 Includes 2 Includes 3 Includes Total 1 585.2 547.7 557.9 600.2 648.4 710.6 776.6 859.4 653.2 672.9 698.4 710.2 711.7 722.3 744.8 764.4 790.1 807.0 820.9 848.2 882.2 886.2 931.9 960.4 958.1 203.3 181.6 169.2 170.8 172.5 180.7 189.7 203.2 174.0 175.0 179.5 181.7 181.5 179.8 182.6 185.9 189.9 200.6 202.5 199.3 205.2 205.7 203.1 201.9 198.6 Residential Structures Producers’ durable equipment Nonresidential buildings, including farm Utilities 152.0 126.9 113.2 115.3 119.9 128.8 141.0 150.5 120.6 121.8 126.1 129.5 129.3 130.4 133.9 138.3 141.6 150.2 152.8 147.8 152.0 149.5 150.1 149.8 146.3 28.1 32.0 34.5 31.8 29.9 30.6 27.8 28.7 29.8 29.8 30.7 31.3 30.9 29.6 28.3 27.5 27.1 28.4 28.1 28.6 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.8 Information processing and related equipment Mining exploration, shafts, and wells Total 1 16.1 15.7 13.3 16.0 15.8 14.4 15.3 17.9 16.2 16.7 15.7 13.9 14.2 13.9 14.4 14.4 15.6 16.7 16.6 17.6 18.6 18.9 17.9 17.0 17.0 381.9 366.2 388.7 429.6 476.8 531.7 589.8 660.9 480.0 499.1 520.4 529.9 531.8 544.8 565.0 581.6 604.0 608.8 621.0 653.8 682.6 686.4 738.8 771.3 773.3 Total 116.2 117.8 134.2 147.9 165.1 201.5 245.4 298.0 166.1 175.6 183.7 199.2 205.2 217.7 229.5 238.0 253.1 260.9 271.8 288.1 311.5 320.7 353.4 376.8 396.2 Computers and peripheral equipment 2 Other Industrial equipment 29.4 32.4 43.9 56.1 67.2 100.8 151.3 214.8 67.1 75.3 80.4 95.2 105.3 122.1 133.6 142.6 158.5 170.7 182.5 203.9 229.9 242.9 292.2 331.5 362.6 88.2 85.9 90.2 92.3 99.4 108.1 115.4 126.6 100.2 102.8 106.1 109.2 108.2 108.7 111.9 113.7 117.9 118.2 121.1 123.7 130.0 131.5 136.7 139.7 142.9 95.0 88.3 89.3 96.5 105.5 115.4 120.5 125.9 106.7 108.9 113.2 116.4 116.6 115.6 119.1 122.0 120.4 120.6 120.8 126.4 127.7 128.6 131.5 132.5 133.6 Transportation and related equipment 81.2 81.7 86.2 98.3 113.2 119.4 127.6 140.3 113.5 120.5 125.3 119.1 115.3 118.0 121.9 125.0 132.7 130.8 131.1 140.5 145.9 143.8 159.6 167.9 156.4 Total residential 3 220.6 193.4 225.6 242.6 267.0 256.8 275.9 282.8 269.4 265.9 259.9 249.5 255.6 262.1 268.0 280.2 279.0 276.3 278.4 282.5 282.3 287.9 298.5 309.1 314.3 Total Single family Multifamily Other 214.5 187.6 219.5 236.2 260.3 249.8 268.6 275.1 262.7 259.0 252.9 242.6 248.5 255.0 261.0 272.9 271.7 268.9 270.9 274.9 274.5 280.1 290.5 300.9 306.1 110.4 96.4 116.5 127.1 140.1 126.8 136.6 137.2 140.5 136.1 131.2 122.7 124.2 128.9 133.0 138.5 138.6 136.3 136.3 137.2 136.1 139.0 145.2 151.3 155.5 19.7 15.4 13.1 10.6 13.6 16.9 18.7 20.2 14.7 15.5 16.3 16.2 17.4 17.8 18.7 20.1 17.7 18.3 19.8 20.3 19.5 21.0 22.1 20.7 19.9 84.4 75.7 89.9 98.6 106.5 106.6 113.8 118.5 107.6 107.6 105.7 104.2 107.6 108.8 109.8 114.8 115.9 114.8 115.3 118.0 119.7 120.9 123.8 129.6 131.2 NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. other items, not shown separately. new computers and peripheral equipment only. producers’ durable equipment, not shown separately. BUSINESS INVESTMENT [Billions of dollars] By industry Period 1993 1994 1995 1996 ................... ................... ................... ................... Total expenditures 1 489.7 549.3 601.1 642.9 Manufacturing Total 488.2 547.9 601.0 642.9 Mining 19.6 24.6 27.6 29.5 Construction Total Durable goods 11.6 9.1 10.4 11.7 134.1 154.4 181.0 191.2 66.4 79.7 97.0 109.7 1 Includes an item for not distributed by industry, not shown separately. NOTE.—All data from Annual Capital Expenditures. 10 Nondurable goods Transportation Communications 67.7 74.7 84.0 81.5 30.6 33.3 33.9 35.9 37.1 41.9 46.3 57.1 Utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade 41.3 41.5 38.4 37.0 19.0 23.5 24.5 25.2 41.4 46.5 51.9 52.2 Finance Insurance and real estate Services Serving multiple industries 26.0 29.8 30.4 36.3 14.2 17.4 19.8 22.5 111.8 123.8 134.2 142.0 1.7 2.2 2.5 2.5 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE In October, employment fell by 88,000, and unemployment fell by 11,000. [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Civilian employment Period Civilian noninstitutional population NSA Civilian labor force Nonagricultural Total Agricultural Total Percent 2 Unemployment Part time for economic reasons 1 Total 15 weeks and over Not in labor force Labor force participation rate Employment/ population ratio Unemployment rate 1988 ..................................... 1989 ..................................... 1990 3 ................................... 1991 ..................................... 1992 ..................................... 1993 ..................................... 1994 4 ................................... 1995 ..................................... 1996 ..................................... 1997 3 ................................... 1997: Oct ........................... Nov .......................... Dec ........................... 184,613 186,393 189,164 190,925 192,805 194,838 196,814 198,584 200,591 203,133 203,767 203,941 204,098 121,669 123,869 125,840 126,346 128,105 129,200 131,056 132,304 133,943 136,297 136,406 136,864 137,169 114,968 117,342 118,793 117,718 118,492 120,259 123,060 124,900 126,708 129,558 129,910 130,575 130,777 3,169 3,199 3,223 3,269 3,247 3,115 3,409 3,440 3,443 3,399 3,327 3,384 3,385 111,800 114,142 115,570 114,449 115,245 117,144 119,651 121,460 123,264 126,159 126,583 127,191 127,392 4,965 4,657 4,950 5,874 6,240 6,230 4,414 4,279 4,123 3,879 3,732 3,689 3,654 6,701 6,528 7,047 8,628 9,613 8,940 7,996 7,404 7,236 6,739 6,496 6,289 6,392 1,610 1,375 1,525 2,357 3,408 3,094 2,860 2,363 2,316 2,062 1,990 1,865 1,964 62,944 62,523 63,324 64,578 64,700 65,638 65,758 66,280 66,647 66,837 67,361 67,077 66,929 65.9 66.5 66.5 66.2 66.4 66.3 66.6 66.6 66.8 67.1 66.9 67.1 67.2 62.3 63.0 62.8 61.7 61.5 61.7 62.5 62.9 63.2 63.8 63.8 64.0 64.1 5.5 5.3 5.6 6.8 7.5 6.9 6.1 5.6 5.4 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.7 1998: Jan 3 ......................... Feb ........................... Mar ........................... Apr ........................... May ........................... June .......................... July .......................... Aug ........................... Sept .......................... Oct ............................ 204,238 204,400 204,547 204,731 204,899 205,085 205,270 205,479 205,699 205,919 137,493 137,557 137,523 137,242 137,364 137,447 137,296 137,415 138,075 137,976 131,083 131,163 130,994 131,383 131,453 131,209 131,067 131,168 131,765 131,677 3,319 3,335 3,132 3,350 3,335 3,343 3,441 3,529 3,518 3,603 127,764 127,829 127,862 128,033 128,118 127,867 127,626 127,640 128,247 128,075 3,865 3,743 3,726 3,608 3,630 3,676 3,632 3,307 3,152 3,216 6,409 6,393 6,529 5,859 5,910 6,237 6,230 6,247 6,310 6,299 1,811 1,830 1,731 1,417 1,462 1,621 1,600 1,647 1,651 1,589 66,745 66,844 67,024 67,489 67,535 67,639 67,973 68,064 67,624 67,943 67.3 67.3 67.2 67.0 67.0 67.0 66.9 66.9 67.1 67.0 64.2 64.2 64.0 64.2 64.2 64.0 63.9 63.8 64.1 63.9 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc. 2 Civilian labor force (or employment) as percent of civilian noninstitutional population; and unemployment as percent of civilian labor force. 3 Not strictly comparable with earlier data. 4 Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods because of a major redesign of the household survey questionnaire. NOTE.—Data beginning January 1998 reflect new composite estimation procedures and revised population controls. See Employment and Earnings, February 1998, for details. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In October, the unemployment rate was unchanged from September at 4.6 percent. [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) By sex and age Period 1988 ........................... 1989 ........................... 1990 ........................... 1991 ........................... 1992 ........................... 1993 ........................... 1994 2 ......................... 1995 ........................... 1996 ........................... 1997 ........................... 1997: Oct .................. Nov ................. Dec .................. 1998: Jan .................. Feb .................. Mar ................. Apr .................. May ................. June ................ July ................. Aug ................. Sept ................. Oct .................. 1 Revised 2 Data 12 All civilian workers 5.5 5.3 5.6 6.8 7.5 6.9 6.1 5.6 5.4 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over 4.8 4.5 5.0 6.4 7.1 6.4 5.4 4.8 4.6 4.2 4.1 3.9 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.9 3.7 3.8 3.7 4.9 4.7 4.9 5.7 6.3 5.9 5.4 4.9 4.8 4.4 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.1 3.9 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.0 By race Both sexes 16–19 years White 15.3 15.0 15.5 18.7 20.1 19.0 17.6 17.3 16.7 16.0 15.5 15.2 14.3 14.1 14.7 15.0 13.1 14.2 14.6 13.8 15.0 15.4 16.0 definition; for details, see Employment and Earnings, February 1994. beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods. 4.7 4.5 4.8 6.1 6.6 6.1 5.3 4.9 4.7 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.9 4.1 3.6 3.7 4.0 3.8 4.0 3.9 4.0 Black and other 10.4 10.0 10.1 11.1 12.7 11.7 10.5 9.6 9.3 8.8 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.3 8.3 8.2 7.5 7.6 7.3 8.3 7.6 8.0 7.6 By selected groups Black 11.7 11.4 11.4 12.5 14.2 13.0 11.5 10.4 10.5 10.0 9.6 9.7 9.9 9.3 9.7 9.2 8.9 9.0 8.2 9.7 9.0 9.2 8.6 Experienced wage and salary workers 5.2 5.0 5.3 6.6 7.2 6.6 5.9 5.4 5.2 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 c4.5 4.3 Married men, spouse present 3.3 3.0 3.4 4.4 5.1 4.4 3.7 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.3 Women who maintain families Full-time workers 1 Part-time workers 1 8.1 8.1 8.3 9.3 10.0 9.7 8.9 8.0 8.2 8.1 7.8 8.1 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.7 6.9 6.8 6.8 7.6 6.9 5.3 5.1 5.4 6.8 7.5 6.9 6.1 5.5 5.3 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 6.4 6.2 6.4 7.0 7.5 7.2 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.5 5.3 5.4 5.0 5.4 5.2 5.7 4.8 4.7 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.7 NOTE.—Data relate to persons age 16 years and over. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In October, the percentage of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks rose; the percentages for 5–14 weeks, for 15–26 weeks, and for 27 weeks and over fell. The mean duration of unemployment was unchanged at 14.3 weeks and the median duration fell to 5.8 weeks. [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Duration of unemployment Period Unemployment (thousands) Percent distribution Less than 5 weeks 5–14 weeks 15–26 weeks Reason for unemployment: percent distribution State programs Number of weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Median Job losers 1 Job leavers Reentrants New entrants Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) 2 Weekly average, thousands 1988 ......................................... 1989 ......................................... 1990 ......................................... 1991 ......................................... 1992 ......................................... 1993 ......................................... 1994 3 ....................................... 1995 ......................................... 1996 ......................................... 1997 ......................................... 1997: Oct ................................ Nov ............................... Dec ............................... 1998: Jan ............................... Feb ............................... Mar ............................... Apr ............................... May ............................... June .............................. July .............................. Aug ............................... Sept .............................. Oct ................................ 6,701 6,528 7,047 8,628 9,613 8,940 7,996 7,404 7,236 6,739 6,496 6,289 6,392 6,409 6,393 6,529 5,859 5,910 6,237 6,230 6,247 6,310 6,299 46.0 48.6 46.3 40.3 35.1 36.5 34.1 36.5 36.4 37.7 39.6 38.2 39.4 39.7 41.2 43.5 44.2 43.5 40.5 42.3 42.6 42.0 45.4 30.0 30.3 32.0 32.4 29.4 28.9 30.1 31.6 31.6 31.7 29.6 32.3 30.0 31.4 30.0 30.1 31.9 32.3 33.5 31.9 31.2 31.8 29.3 12.0 11.2 11.7 14.4 15.1 14.5 15.5 14.6 14.6 14.8 14.2 14.2 14.6 12.3 13.4 12.8 9.8 10.8 13.7 12.8 13.0 11.7 11.1 12.1 9.9 10.0 12.9 20.3 20.1 20.3 17.3 17.4 15.8 16.6 15.2 16.0 16.6 15.3 13.6 14.0 13.3 12.4 13.0 13.2 14.6 14.2 1 Beginning January 1994, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs. 2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), and Federal (UCFE). Railroad (RR) programs included through 1993. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation or Emergency Unemployment Compensation programs. 13.5 11.9 12.0 13.7 17.7 18.0 18.8 16.6 16.7 15.8 16.3 15.6 16.3 15.6 15.6 14.3 14.3 14.6 13.8 14.3 13.5 14.3 14.3 5.9 4.8 5.3 6.8 8.7 8.3 9.2 8.3 8.3 8.0 7.7 7.8 7.7 7.4 7.2 6.8 6.4 5.9 6.6 6.6 6.9 6.6 5.8 46.1 45.7 48.1 54.4 56.1 54.2 47.7 46.9 46.6 45.1 45.4 45.6 46.7 44.1 43.7 45.9 44.9 45.8 45.4 46.8 45.8 46.0 44.6 14.7 15.7 14.8 11.6 10.4 10.9 9.9 11.1 10.7 11.8 11.3 10.3 10.8 12.7 12.3 11.5 10.7 12.4 12.3 12.9 11.9 11.5 11.6 27.0 28.2 27.4 24.8 23.8 24.6 34.8 34.1 34.7 34.7 34.7 35.2 33.9 35.0 35.5 34.1 35.7 33.6 33.7 32.9 34.2 34.8 34.4 12.2 10.4 9.8 9.2 9.7 10.3 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.4 8.6 8.8 8.6 8.1 8.5 8.5 8.7 8.2 8.6 7.5 8.1 7.7 9.3 2,081 2,158 2,522 3,342 3,245 2,751 2,670 2,572 2,595 2,321 2,230 2,247 2,283 2,251 2,187 2,165 2,127 2,103 2,238 2,384 2,238 2,171 .............. 310 330 388 447 408 341 340 357 356 324 310 319 315 318 309 309 309 316 355 326 303 r 299 p 311 2,135 2,205 2,575 3,406 3,348 2,845 2,739 2,633 2,650 2,365 1,754 2,016 2,436 2,755 2,774 2,790 2,249 1,994 2,074 2,209 2,225 1,848 ................. 3 Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods. NOTE.—Data relate to persons age 16 years and over (except for insured unemployment and initial claims). Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 116,000 in October. [Thousands of wage and salary workers; 1 seasonally adjusted] Goods-producing industries Period 1988 ..................... 1989 ..................... 1990 ..................... 1991 ..................... 1992 ..................... 1993 ..................... 1994 ..................... 1995 ..................... 1996 .................... 1997 .................... 1997: Oct ........... Nov ........... Dec ........... 1998: Jan ........... Feb ........... Mar .......... Apr ........... May .......... June ......... July .......... Aug r ......... Sept r ......... Oct p .......... Total nonagricultural employment 105,209 107,884 109,403 108,249 108,601 110,713 114,163 117,191 119,608 122,690 123,568 123,944 124,289 124,640 124,832 124,914 125,234 125,562 125,751 125,869 126,191 126,348 126,464 Service-producing industries Manufacturing Total 2 25,125 25,254 24,905 23,745 23,231 23,352 23,908 24,265 24,493 24,934 25,032 25,099 25,193 25,297 25,314 25,276 25,339 25,301 25,304 25,135 25,253 25,221 25,183 Construction 5,098 5,171 5,120 4,650 4,492 4,668 4,986 5,160 5,418 5,686 5,722 5,750 5,810 5,881 5,902 5,860 5,930 5,917 5,946 5,970 5,989 5,968 5,987 Total 19,314 19,391 19,076 18,406 18,104 18,075 18,321 18,524 18,495 18,657 18,718 18,758 18,791 18,824 18,822 18,829 18,827 18,805 18,780 18,594 18,693 18,683 18,631 Durable goods Nondurable goods 11,363 11,394 11,109 10,569 10,277 10,221 10,448 10,683 10,789 10,987 11,060 11,094 11,118 11,154 11,159 11,166 11,170 11,156 11,144 10,989 11,106 11,085 11,053 7,951 7,997 7,968 7,837 7,827 7,854 7,873 7,841 7,706 7,670 7,658 7,664 7,673 7,670 7,663 7,663 7,657 7,649 7,636 7,605 7,587 7,598 7,578 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total in this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample 14 Total 80,084 82,630 84,497 84,504 85,370 87,361 90,256 92,925 95,115 97,756 98,536 98,845 99,096 99,343 99,518 99,638 99,895 100,261 100,447 100,734 100,938 101,127 101,281 Transportation and public utilities 5,512 5,614 5,777 5,755 5,718 5,811 5,984 6,132 6,253 6,395 6,453 6,456 6,451 6,473 6,494 6,504 6,513 6,534 6,538 6,550 6,570 6,572 6,591 Wholesale trade 6,030 6,187 6,173 6,081 5,997 5,981 6,162 6,378 6,482 6,648 6,697 6,711 6,731 6,759 6,769 6,783 6,798 6,815 6,821 6,827 6,838 6,864 6,865 Retail trade 19,023 19,475 19,601 19,284 19,356 19,773 20,507 21,187 21,597 22,011 22,105 22,206 22,245 22,280 22,283 22,259 22,335 22,423 22,448 22,547 22,545 22,608 22,598 Finance, insurance, Services and real estate 6,630 6,668 6,709 6,646 6,602 6,757 6,896 6,806 6,911 7,091 7,151 7,172 7,194 7,213 7,232 7,258 7,289 7,311 7,333 7,370 7,372 7,385 7,410 25,504 26,907 27,934 28,336 29,052 30,197 31,579 33,117 34,454 36,040 36,484 36,638 36,795 36,932 37,020 37,106 37,196 37,350 37,494 37,614 37,691 37,756 37,851 Government Total 17,386 17,779 18,304 18,402 18,645 18,841 19,128 19,305 19,419 19,570 19,646 19,662 19,680 19,686 19,720 19,728 19,764 19,828 19,813 19,826 19,922 19,942 19,966 Federal 2,971 2,988 3,085 2,966 2,969 2,915 2,870 2,822 2,757 2,699 2,690 2,689 2,688 2,670 2,676 2,671 2,674 2,671 2,674 2,672 2,683 2,692 2,710 of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. In the series shown here, persons who work at more than one job are counted each time they appear on a payroll, in contrast to the series shown on p. 11, where persons are counted only once—as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force. 2 Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average weekly hours Average gross hourly earnings Manufacturing Period 1988 ........................ 1989 ........................ 1990 ........................ 1991 ........................ 1992 ........................ 1993 ........................ 1994 ........................ 1995 ........................ 1996 ....................... 1997 ....................... 1997: Oct ............ Nov ............ Dec ............ 1998: Jan ............ Feb ............ Mar ............ Apr ............. May ............. June ............ July ............ Aug r ............ Sept r ........... Oct p ............ Total private nonagricultural 1 34.7 34.6 34.5 34.3 34.4 34.5 34.7 34.5 34.4 34.6 34.6 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.7 34.6 34.5 34.7 34.6 34.6 34.6 34.4 34.6 Total 41.1 41.0 40.8 40.7 41.0 41.4 42.0 41.6 41.6 42.0 42.0 42.1 42.2 42.1 42.0 41.8 41.4 41.8 41.8 41.7 41.7 41.6 41.8 Average gross weekly earnings Total private nonagricultural 1 Overtime 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.7 4.4 4.5 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 Current dollars $9.28 9.66 10.01 10.32 10.57 10.83 11.12 11.43 11.82 12.28 12.43 12.47 12.50 12.54 12.59 12.63 12.70 12.73 12.76 12.79 12.85 12.87 12.88 1982 dollars 2 $7.69 7.64 7.52 7.45 7.41 7.39 7.40 7.39 7.43 7.55 7.60 7.62 7.63 7.66 7.69 7.72 7.74 7.73 7.75 7.75 7.78 7.79 .............. Total private nonagricultural 1 Manufacturing $10.19 10.48 10.83 11.18 11.46 11.74 12.07 12.37 12.77 13.17 13.30 13.34 13.37 13.38 13.42 13.46 13.44 13.47 13.47 13.42 13.52 13.59 13.56 1 Also Percent change from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural 3 Current dollars Current dollars 1982 dollars 2 Manufacturing Construction Retail trade $322.02 334.24 345.35 353.98 363.61 373.64 385.86 394.34 406.61 424.89 430.08 432.71 433.75 436.39 436.87 437.00 438.15 441.73 441.50 442.53 444.61 442.73 445.65 $266.79 264.22 259.47 255.40 254.99 254.87 256.73 255.07 255.73 261.31 262.89 264.33 264.80 266.42 266.71 266.95 267.00 268.37 268.06 268.20 269.30 268.00 .............. $418.81 429.68 441.86 455.03 469.86 486.04 506.94 514.59 531.23 553.14 558.60 561.61 564.21 563.30 563.64 562.63 556.42 563.05 563.05 559.61 563.78 565.34 566.81 $495.73 513.17 526.01 533.40 537.70 553.63 573.00 587.00 603.33 623.57 629.01 620.37 637.26 647.55 640.53 631.40 636.62 635.36 633.98 652.29 651.80 630.94 650.91 $183.62 188.72 194.40 198.48 205.06 209.95 216.46 221.47 230.11 241.03 245.34 246.21 245.94 248.24 249.11 249.70 252.30 253.75 253.17 255.50 256.07 256.94 256.37 Current dollars 3.0 3.8 3.3 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.3 2.2 3.1 4.5 4.7 5.2 3.5 4.9 4.4 3.8 3.6 4.6 3.3 4.0 4.6 2.4 3.4 1982 dollars ¥0.9 ¥1.0 ¥1.8 ¥1.6 ¥.2 ¥.0 .7 ¥.6 .3 2.2 2.7 3.5 2.0 3.5 3.3 2.7 2.3 3.0 1.8 2.5 3.1 1.2 .............. 3 Based on seasonally unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI–W) (on a 1982=100 base). 2 Current EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY Index (June 1989 = 100) Percent change from 3 months earlier Period Total compensation Wages and salaries .................................................................... .................................................................... .................................................................... .................................................................... .................................................................... .................................................................... .................................................................... ................................................................... .................................................................... .................................................................... 97.6 102.3 107.0 111.7 115.6 119.8 123.5 126.7 130.6 135.1 98.0 102.0 106.1 110.0 112.9 116.4 119.7 123.1 127.3 132.3 1994: Sept ................................................................... Dec .................................................................... 1995: Mar ................................................................... June .................................................................. Sept ................................................................... Dec .................................................................... 1996: Mar ................................................................... June .................................................................. Sept ................................................................... Dec .................................................................... 1997: Mar ................................................................... June .................................................................. Sept ................................................................... Dec .................................................................... 1998: Mar ................................................................... June .................................................................. Sept ................................................................... 122.8 123.5 124.4 125.3 126.1 126.9 127.7 128.8 129.7 130.6 131.4 132.6 133.7 135.1 136.0 137.2 138.7 119.0 119.8 120.6 121.5 122.4 123.2 124.4 125.6 126.5 127.4 128.5 129.7 131.0 132.5 133.6 134.9 136.6 Benefits 1 Total compensation Wages and salaries 12 months earlier Benefits 1 Total compensation Wages and salaries 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.4 3.5 3.6 3.1 2.6 3.1 3.4 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.7 2.6 3.1 2.8 2.8 3.4 3.9 Benefits 1 Not seasonally adjusted 1988: 1989: 1990: 1991: 1992: 1993: 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 96.7 102.6 109.4 116.2 122.2 128.3 133.0 135.9 138.6 141.8 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. 0.8 .7 .7 .7 .7 .7 1.0 1.0 .7 .7 .9 .9 1.0 1.1 .8 1.0 1.3 1.0 .5 .3 .5 .5 .5 .1 .7 .6 .6 .1 .6 .5 .9 .3 .8 .7 Seasonally adjusted 1 Employer costs for employee benefits. NOTE.—The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries. 132.8 133.5 133.9 134.6 135.3 136.0 136.1 137.0 137.8 138.6 138.8 139.7 140.4 141.7 142.1 143.2 144.2 0.8 .6 .7 .7 .6 .6 .6 .9 .7 .7 .6 .9 .8 1.0 .7 .9 1.1 6.9 6.1 6.6 6.2 5.2 5.0 3.7 2.2 2.0 2.3 Not seasonally adjusted 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.3 4.0 3.7 2.9 2.6 2.1 2.2 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.6 Data exclude farm and household workers. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output per hour of all persons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Output 1 Business sector Hours of all persons 2 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Compensation per hour 3 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real compensation per hour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit labor costs Implicit price deflator 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 94.4 98.3 100.0 102.4 103.7 105.8 106.8 109.0 103.3 103.2 103.8 104.3 105.1 105.7 106.1 106.2 105.7 106.3 107.3 107.8 108.5 108.7 108.8 110.0 110.2 111.3 94.2 98.1 100.0 102.2 103.6 105.4 106.5 109.0 103.2 103.1 103.7 104.2 104.8 105.3 105.6 105.8 105.4 106.0 107.0 107.5 108.5 108.7 108.8 109.9 110.2 111.2 94.1 97.7 100.0 102.5 104.8 106.9 108.6 110.4 103.9 104.4 105.1 105.8 106.3 106.7 107.1 107.4 107.9 108.4 108.8 109.2 109.9 110.3 110.6 110.8 110.9 111.0 93.8 97.6 100.0 102.5 104.9 107.0 108.5 110.6 103.8 104.5 105.3 106.0 106.4 106.9 107.2 107.4 107.9 108.2 108.6 109.2 110.0 110.4 110.8 111.1 111.2 111.3 5.0 4.2 1.9 2.2 1.4 1.8 1.1 2.3 4.5 ¥.3 2.4 1.7 2.5 1.8 1.2 .9 ¥1.5 2.2 3.7 2.1 3.6 .7 .3 4.0 1.1 3.9 4.0 3.8 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.7 2.5 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 2.5 1.4 1.1 .9 .2 .2 4.2 4.1 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.4 1.9 2.1 2.5 3.2 2.4 1.9 1.6 1.2 .9 1.7 1.3 1.4 2.2 3.1 1.5 1.4 .9 .6 .2 Indexes, 1992=100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... I ..................... II .................... III .................. IV ................... I ..................... II .................... III .................. IV ................... I ..................... II .................... III .................. IV ................... I ..................... II .................... III .................. IV ................... I ..................... II * .................. 96.1 96.7 100.0 100.1 100.7 101.0 103.7 105.4 100.8 100.8 100.4 100.7 100.5 100.7 101.0 101.8 102.9 103.8 103.8 104.2 104.5 105.0 106.0 106.2 107.3 107.2 96.3 97.0 100.0 100.1 100.6 101.2 103.7 105.1 100.7 100.8 100.3 100.8 100.6 100.9 101.3 102.0 103.0 103.8 103.8 104.1 104.2 104.7 105.6 105.9 106.8 106.8 98.6 96.9 100.0 102.7 107.0 109.9 114.5 119.8 105.2 106.9 107.3 108.5 109.0 109.1 110.3 111.2 112.5 114.2 114.9 116.4 117.8 119.1 120.6 121.7 123.7 124.2 98.8 97.1 100.0 103.0 107.0 110.2 114.8 119.9 105.2 106.9 107.3 108.6 109.2 109.4 110.7 111.6 112.8 114.5 115.2 116.6 117.9 119.2 120.6 121.8 123.9 124.4 102.6 100.2 100.0 102.6 106.2 108.8 110.4 113.6 104.4 106.0 106.8 107.7 108.5 108.3 109.1 109.2 109.3 110.0 110.7 111.6 112.7 113.4 113.8 114.5 115.4 115.8 102.6 100.1 100.0 102.9 106.3 108.9 110.7 114.1 104.5 106.1 106.9 107.8 108.5 108.4 109.2 109.4 109.4 110.3 111.0 112.0 113.1 113.9 114.2 115.1 116.0 116.5 90.8 95.1 100.0 102.5 104.4 106.8 110.7 114.9 104.1 104.1 104.3 105.1 105.6 106.4 107.2 108.2 108.8 110.3 111.4 112.3 113.4 114.1 115.3 116.8 118.2 119.4 90.7 95.1 100.0 102.2 104.2 106.7 110.4 114.5 103.9 103.9 104.1 105.0 105.5 106.2 107.0 107.9 108.6 110.0 111.0 112.0 113.1 113.8 114.9 116.3 117.6 118.8 97.4 98.0 100.0 99.5 98.8 98.4 99.0 100.5 99.6 98.9 98.2 98.3 98.2 98.1 98.3 98.6 98.4 98.9 99.3 99.3 99.7 100.0 100.5 101.3 102.4 102.9 97.3 98.0 100.0 99.3 98.7 98.2 98.7 100.1 99.3 98.7 98.0 98.2 98.1 97.9 98.2 98.4 98.3 98.6 98.9 98.9 99.4 99.7 100.2 100.9 101.9 102.4 Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... I ..................... II .................... III .................. IV ................... I ..................... II .................... III .................. IV ................... I ..................... II .................... III .................. IV ................... I ..................... II .................... III .................. IV ................... I ..................... II * .................. 1 Output 0.7 .6 3.4 .1 .6 .3 2.7 1.7 0 ¥.1 ¥1.4 1.2 ¥1.0 .9 1.3 3.2 4.4 3.5 .1 1.5 1.0 2.0 3.7 .9 4.1 ¥.2 0.5 .7 3.1 .1 .5 .6 2.4 1.4 ¥.2 .5 ¥1.8 1.8 ¥.4 .9 1.8 2.6 4.1 3.0 0 1.2 .5 1.8 3.6 .9 3.5 .1 0.8 ¥1.7 3.2 2.7 4.1 2.7 4.2 4.6 2.6 6.4 1.5 4.6 2.0 .3 4.4 3.6 4.5 6.4 2.5 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.9 3.6 7.1 1.4 0.7 ¥1.8 3.0 3.0 3.9 3.0 4.1 4.5 1.6 6.6 1.5 5.0 2.5 .5 4.9 3.3 4.2 6.4 2.5 5.0 4.5 4.5 4.8 4.0 7.0 1.6 0.2 ¥2.3 ¥.2 2.6 3.5 2.4 1.5 2.9 2.6 6.5 3.0 3.3 3.0 ¥.6 3.1 .4 .1 2.9 2.4 3.5 3.9 2.6 1.2 2.7 2.9 1.7 0.3 ¥2.4 ¥.1 2.9 3.3 2.4 1.6 3.0 1.8 6.1 3.4 3.1 2.9 ¥.5 3.1 .7 .0 3.3 2.4 3.7 4.1 2.6 1.2 3.0 3.4 1.5 refers to real gross domestic product originating in the sector. 2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers’ contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed. 4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI–U). 5 Current dollar gross domestic output divided by the output index. 16 5.7 4.8 5.2 2.5 1.8 2.3 3.6 3.8 4.0 ¥.3 .8 3.2 2.1 3.0 2.9 3.8 2.5 5.6 4.0 3.4 3.9 2.6 4.1 5.3 4.9 4.1 5.5 4.9 5.1 2.2 1.9 2.4 3.5 3.7 4.3 .2 .5 3.5 2.0 2.8 3.1 3.5 2.6 5.2 3.7 3.3 4.0 2.6 3.9 4.9 4.6 4.0 0.3 .5 2.1 ¥.5 ¥.7 ¥.5 .7 1.5 2.0 ¥2.8 ¥2.8 .7 ¥.5 ¥.4 .8 1.3 ¥.7 1.8 1.5 .0 1.7 1.3 2.1 3.1 4.4 2.0 0.1 .7 2.1 ¥.7 ¥.6 ¥.5 .6 1.4 2.3 ¥2.3 ¥3.1 1.0 ¥.6 ¥.6 .9 1.0 ¥.5 1.4 1.3 ¥.0 1.8 1.2 2.0 2.8 4.1 2.0 5.0 4.1 1.7 2.4 1.2 2.0 .9 2.1 4.0 ¥.2 2.3 1.9 3.1 2.0 1.5 .6 ¥1.9 2.1 3.8 1.8 2.8 .6 .4 4.4 .8 4.3 NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. * Data based on GDP data released August 27, 1998. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production and capacity utilization fell in September. [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Total industrial production Percent Period 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Index, 1992=100 From preceding month Industry production indexes, 1992=100 change 1 From year earlier Capacity utilization rate, percent 2 Manufacturing Mining Total Durable Utilities Nondurable Total industry Manufacturing ....................................... ....................................... ....................................... ....................................... ....................................... ....................................... ....................................... ....................................... ....................................... ....................................... 97.4 99.1 98.9 97.0 100.0 103.6 109.2 114.5 118.5 124.5 .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 4.5 1.8 ¥.2 ¥2.0 3.1 3.6 5.4 4.9 3.5 5.0 97.1 99.0 98.5 96.2 100.0 103.8 110.0 116.0 120.2 127.0 98.1 100.5 99.0 95.5 100.0 105.7 114.4 123.9 131.7 142.3 96.0 97.3 97.9 97.0 100.0 101.7 105.2 107.4 108.0 111.1 104.7 103.2 104.8 102.6 100.0 100.1 102.6 102.3 103.9 106.0 93.9 97.1 98.3 100.4 100.0 103.9 105.3 109.0 112.5 112.5 84.0 84.1 82.3 79.3 80.2 81.3 83.1 83.4 82.4 82.7 83.8 83.6 81.4 77.9 79.4 80.5 82.5 82.8 81.4 81.7 1997: Sept ............................. Oct .............................. Nov ............................. Dec .............................. 125.6 126.5 127.5 127.9 0.3 .8 .8 .3 5.0 5.8 5.8 5.7 128.0 129.1 130.4 130.9 144.4 145.5 147.7 148.6 111.3 112.2 112.6 112.9 106.5 105.9 106.1 105.7 115.1 116.9 115.3 114.3 82.7 83.0 83.3 83.3 81.6 81.9 82.3 82.3 1998: Jan ............................. Feb .............................. Mar ............................. Apr ............................. May ............................ June r .......................... July r ........................... Aug r ............................ Sept p ........................... 127.8 127.3 128.0 128.4 128.8 127.5 127.0 129.0 128.7 ¥.1 ¥.4 .5 .3 .3 ¥1.1 ¥.4 1.6 ¥.3 5.4 4.3 4.5 4.3 4.5 3.2 2.0 3.0 2.4 131.1 130.6 130.8 131.6 131.7 130.0 129.5 131.9 131.3 148.3 147.8 148.6 149.7 150.2 147.6 146.3 152.1 151.1 113.6 113.0 112.6 113.2 112.9 112.0 112.2 111.6 111.3 108.4 108.8 108.0 107.4 108.4 106.1 106.4 105.5 105.0 108.7 108.2 114.3 111.8 115.5 118.6 117.6 118.3 120.2 82.9 82.2 82.4 82.4 82.4 81.2 80.6 81.6 81.1 82.1 81.4 81.2 81.4 81.1 79.7 79.1 80.3 79.6 1 Percent 2 Output changes based on unrounded indexes. as percent of capacity. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1992=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Products Materials Final products Intermediate products Consumer goods Equipment Period Total Total 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Durable goods Nondurable goods Total 1 Business Defense and space equipment Total Construction supplies Business supplies Total Energy ............................................................... ............................................................... ............................................................... ............................................................... ............................................................... ............................................................... ............................................................... ............................................................... ............................................................... ............................................................... 97.9 99.9 99.5 97.7 100.0 103.4 107.5 111.3 114.6 119.6 96.7 97.7 97.3 97.0 100.0 103.0 107.1 109.9 111.8 114.4 99.8 101.3 98.0 93.0 100.0 109.2 119.5 121.6 125.8 131.3 95.9 96.7 97.1 98.1 100.0 101.5 104.0 106.9 108.3 110.2 99.9 103.7 103.2 98.8 100.0 104.1 108.1 113.8 119.6 128.8 93.5 98.8 98.2 95.7 100.0 105.8 112.5 121.5 129.7 141.9 117.1 117.4 115.9 106.7 100.0 93.8 86.9 81.4 76.9 75.2 102.5 102.9 101.9 97.5 100.0 102.5 106.3 108.3 110.8 115.1 106.3 105.5 102.9 96.2 100.0 103.4 110.6 112.6 117.4 121.8 100.3 101.3 101.4 98.3 100.0 101.9 103.7 105.7 106.9 111.1 95.1 97.0 97.2 95.9 100.0 104.1 112.3 120.8 126.2 134.1 98.5 99.5 100.6 100.8 100.0 99.6 101.4 102.6 103.5 103.9 1997: Sept .................................................... Oct ...................................................... Nov ..................................................... Dec ..................................................... 120.3 121.5 122.5 122.2 114.5 115.9 116.7 115.9 131.9 131.4 136.5 134.7 110.2 112.1 111.8 111.3 130.6 131.3 132.8 133.4 144.4 145.5 147.5 148.6 74.7 74.7 74.5 74.5 115.2 116.3 117.3 117.4 120.4 121.3 123.6 123.2 112.2 113.4 113.5 113.9 136.1 136.7 137.7 138.9 105.5 104.7 103.9 104.2 1998: Jan ..................................................... Feb ..................................................... Mar .................................................... Apr ..................................................... May .................................................... June r .................................................. July r ................................................... Aug r ................................................... Sept p .................................................. 122.6 121.5 122.6 123.2 123.3 122.3 121.2 124.0 123.4 116.6 115.1 116.0 116.5 116.7 115.3 114.4 116.6 116.1 135.6 134.3 135.2 136.3 138.0 130.4 124.0 139.6 137.4 112.0 110.4 111.3 111.6 111.5 111.5 111.8 111.1 111.0 133.1 133.1 134.3 135.0 135.2 134.7 133.4 137.2 136.3 147.3 146.8 148.7 150.2 150.4 150.7 149.1 154.3 153.4 75.7 75.9 75.3 75.1 75.4 75.0 74.9 75.5 75.2 117.4 117.6 117.3 117.5 118.6 117.9 118.1 118.3 118.0 125.2 126.2 124.2 124.7 126.7 126.5 127.6 128.5 127.6 112.9 112.6 113.2 113.2 113.7 112.9 112.5 112.3 112.3 138.2 138.2 138.7 139.1 139.6 137.5 137.5 139.4 139.3 103.7 103.7 106.0 105.0 107.2 106.2 106.1 105.9 106.8 1 Includes oil and gas well drilling and manufactured homes, not shown separately. [1992=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Durable manufactures Primary metals Period Total 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Iron and steel Fabricated metal products Industrial machinery and equipment Electrical machinery Nondurable manufactures Transportation equipment Total Motor vehicles and parts Lumber and products Apparel products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Foods ............................................................... ............................................................... ............................................................... ............................................................... ............................................................... ............................................................... ............................................................... ............................................................... ............................................................... ............................................................... 106.2 104.9 104.0 96.7 100.0 105.7 113.4 117.2 118.9 124.5 107.6 106.2 106.4 96.0 100.0 107.1 113.7 117.7 117.6 122.8 106.1 104.8 101.2 96.2 100.0 104.4 112.2 116.6 119.6 122.9 97.1 103.0 100.1 95.4 100.0 109.9 124.8 142.7 155.3 171.4 82.5 85.8 87.7 89.6 100.0 110.7 133.2 170.9 199.3 231.5 101.1 105.1 102.3 96.5 100.0 103.8 107.1 105.7 106.5 115.6 100.2 101.2 95.3 88.5 100.0 113.6 129.8 131.0 130.2 137.2 105.1 104.3 101.6 94.5 100.0 100.8 105.9 107.8 111.8 114.9 103.5 100.3 97.2 97.8 100.0 102.4 106.5 107.1 102.2 99.6 103.4 103.5 103.1 99.1 100.0 100.6 100.7 101.5 101.5 104.9 92.2 95.1 97.3 96.4 100.0 101.4 104.7 107.5 110.5 115.3 94.9 95.9 97.0 98.4 100.0 102.0 103.7 106.8 107.3 109.6 1997: Sept .................................................... Oct ...................................................... Nov ..................................................... Dec ..................................................... 125.9 127.4 128.9 127.2 124.5 126.4 127.0 126.1 122.7 124.4 124.7 126.7 173.7 176.5 177.7 178.6 237.5 240.8 247.4 249.9 118.8 118.3 121.6 123.4 141.2 139.6 145.9 146.6 113.3 112.9 117.0 114.4 99.1 99.3 98.6 99.3 105.1 106.7 107.4 107.1 115.6 116.7 116.5 118.2 108.6 109.2 110.9 110.9 1998: Jan ..................................................... Feb ..................................................... Mar .................................................... Apr ..................................................... May .................................................... June r .................................................. July r ................................................... Aug r ................................................... Sept p .................................................. 129.3 128.1 127.1 128.2 125.5 122.4 122.5 124.4 121.3 127.9 127.0 126.7 126.4 124.0 119.9 119.7 120.6 115.3 125.6 124.3 125.0 125.6 126.4 125.7 125.5 124.3 124.8 180.3 179.4 183.8 186.3 188.2 190.5 192.3 192.9 192.3 252.9 254.1 254.9 257.5 257.5 257.4 259.5 259.8 260.6 119.9 118.8 118.7 119.4 120.7 110.8 103.8 126.1 123.7 138.3 136.7 136.6 138.3 140.2 120.2 104.7 150.2 145.5 114.8 116.7 115.6 116.7 117.3 117.9 117.8 119.3 116.8 99.3 97.7 98.2 98.3 97.0 97.4 97.2 95.5 95.8 106.5 105.6 105.0 104.8 104.5 103.2 102.4 101.9 102.1 118.7 117.6 117.7 118.7 118.0 117.8 117.7 117.0 115.7 112.9 112.0 111.4 112.2 112.3 110.5 110.8 109.8 110.3 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 NEW CONSTRUCTION [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Construction contracts 3 Private Period Total new construction expenditures Residential Total New housing units Total 1 Commercial and industrial 2 Other Federal and State and local Total value index (1992=100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) Billions of dollars 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 ........................................ ........................................ ........................................ ........................................ ........................................ ........................................ ........................................ ........................................ ........................................ ........................................ 455.6 469.8 468.5 424.2 452.1 478.6 519.5 538.1 583.6 618.2 360.9 371.6 361.1 314.1 336.2 362.7 399.3 407.5 446.3 471.2 198.1 196.6 182.9 157.8 187.8 210.5 238.9 230.7 256.5 265.6 1997: Sept .............................. Oct ............................... Nov .............................. Dec ............................... 623.3 626.6 623.1 626.3 475.9 477.5 475.3 478.4 266.1 268.6 268.9 273.0 1998: Jan ............................... Feb ............................... Mar .............................. Apr ............................... May .............................. June ............................. July r ............................ Aug r ............................ Sept p ........................... 633.7 638.2 639.9 646.0 635.4 650.3 657.7 657.8 660.6 487.8 490.9 494.3 500.1 496.5 503.6 510.6 511.7 511.7 279.0 282.5 286.0 289.7 288.0 291.9 299.2 299.5 302.7 138.9 139.2 128.0 110.6 129.6 144.1 167.9 162.9 179.4 187.1 109.6 118.0 119.4 93.7 82.2 84.4 93.3 107.9 119.6 127.7 53.2 57.1 58.8 62.6 66.2 67.8 67.1 68.9 70.2 77.8 94.7 98.2 107.5 110.1 115.8 116.0 120.2 130.7 137.3 147.1 104 108 98 92 100 108 118 121 131 r 142 973 961 783 577 556 589 744 862 875 961 187.8 190.9 190.8 194.6 128.2 128.0 126.5 125.7 81.6 80.9 80.0 79.7 147.4 149.1 147.7 147.9 r 144 ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... 197.2 200.6 203.6 206.9 204.3 208.0 212.5 212.1 214.5 129.9 127.8 127.6 130.2 128.6 132.3 131.7 131.7 127.9 78.9 80.6 80.7 80.2 79.8 79.4 79.8 80.5 81.1 145.9 147.3 145.6 145.9 138.9 146.7 147.1 146.2 148.9 Annual rates 1 Includes residential improvements, not shown separately. hotels and motels. Dodge series. r 146 r 147 r 142 r 148 r 148 r 145 147 140 136 ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., F.W. Dodge Division. 2 Includes 3 F.W. 145 144 r 145 NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New private housing units Period Total 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 ........................................ ........................................ ........................................ ........................................ ........................................ ........................................ ........................................ ........................................ ........................................ ........................................ New private homes Units started, by type of structure 1,488.1 1,376.1 1,192.7 1,013.9 1,199.7 1,287.6 1,457.0 1,354.1 1,476.8 1,474.0 1 unit 1,081.3 1,003.3 894.8 840.4 1,029.9 1,125.7 1,198.4 1,076.2 1,160.9 1,133.7 2–4 units 5 or more units 58.8 55.2 37.5 35.6 30.7 29.4 35.0 33.7 45.2 44.5 348.0 317.6 260.4 137.9 139.0 132.6 223.5 244.1 270.8 295.8 Units authorized 1,455.6 1,338.4 1,110.8 948.8 1,094.9 1,199.1 3 1,371.6 1,332.5 1,425.6 1,441.1 Units completed Homes sold Homes for sale at end of period 1 1,529.8 1,422.8 1,308.0 1,090.8 1,157.5 1,192.7 1,346.9 1,312.6 1,412.9 1,400.5 676 650 534 509 610 666 670 667 757 804 368 365 321 284 265 293 336 370 322 282 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 2 7.7 2 7.4 7.2 7.4 7.4 2 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.7 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1997: Sept .............................. Oct ............................... Nov .............................. Dec .............................. 1,501 1,529 1,523 1,540 1,174 1,124 1,167 1,130 45 64 40 62 282 341 316 348 1,475 1,502 1,475 1,467 1,433 1,384 1,432 1,413 809 805 875 805 284 284 280 282 7.9 ...................... ...................... 7.7 1998: Jan ............................... Feb ............................... Mar .............................. Apr ............................... May .............................. June ............................. July r ............................ Aug r ............................ Sept p ........................... 1,545 1,616 1,585 1,546 1,538 1,620 1,704 1,616 1,576 1,225 1,263 1,239 1,237 1,224 1,269 1,300 1,253 1,246 49 63 45 44 51 45 42 53 32 271 290 301 265 263 306 362 310 298 1,553 1,635 1,569 1,517 1,543 1,517 1,581 1,618 1,544 1,314 1,461 1,486 1,509 1,458 1,484 1,549 1,514 1,470 853 878 836 892 892 r 919 873 830 822 281 281 285 286 287 287 285 286 292 ...................... ...................... 7.7 ...................... ...................... 8.0 ...................... ...................... 8.2 1 Seasonally adjusted. 2 Revised series beginning 1989 and 1994; not comparable with earlier data, except 1993 data have been revised to be comparable with new series beginning in 1994. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. 3 The 1994 total based on 17,000 permit-issuing places is 1,333.7 thousand units. NOTE.—Beginning 1994, units authorized are for 19,000 places. For other data shown, units authorized are for 17,000 places. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade In August, manufacturing and trade sales fell 0.2 percent and inventories rose $3.2 billion. According to advance data, retail sales rose 0.3 percent in September, following no change in August. Manufacturing and trade 1 Wholesale Retail Inventory-sales ratio 4 Sales 2 Period Sales 2 Inventories 3 Sales 2 Inventories 3 Total Durable goods stores Inventories 3 Nondurable goods stores Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Manufacturing and trade 1 Retail Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 ................................... ................................... ................................... ................................... ................................... ................................... ................................... ................................... ................................... ................................... 1997: Aug r ....................... Sept ........................ Oct .......................... Nov ......................... Dec ......................... 497,157 527,039 545,909 542,815 567,176 595,015 637,695 682,501 714,837 749,645 767,222 815,455 840,622 834,595 842,843 869,367 932,267 991,655 1,009,647 1,053,078 134,521 143,760 149,506 148,306 154,150 161,560 172,870 188,837 200,115 208,342 178,801 187,009 195,769 200,389 208,242 216,919 235,328 253,556 256,442 273,298 751,509 1,035,510 1,043,131 1,046,871 1,050,183 1,053,078 206,868 210,706 210,040 208,413 209,816 264,516 268,772 269,182 270,955 273,298 r 759,727 757,474 755,731 763,107 1998: Jan ......................... 761,165 1,055,034 210,224 272,130 Feb ......................... 768,061 1,062,460 211,312 275,750 Mar ......................... 773,877 1,068,754 213,781 277,624 Apr ......................... 772,160 1,070,555 213,900 275,933 May ........................ 772,405 1,070,022 213,413 277,699 June ....................... 774,639 1,070,515 213,904 277,518 July r ...................... 773,762 1,070,875 214,229 277,466 p Aug ...................... 772,277 1,074,047 211,585 280,007 p Sept ...................... ................ .................. ................ ................ 138,017 146,581 153,718 154,661 162,632 172,820 185,823 194,109 205,100 213,851 85,587 91,818 97,981 100,497 103,999 107,824 112,314 115,798 121,055 125,665 219,047 237,234 239,780 243,256 252,091 268,409 292,062 307,114 316,476 323,647 112,453 121,347 121,159 119,100 123,116 134,600 152,004 163,421 168,891 174,430 106,594 115,887 118,621 124,156 128,975 133,809 140,058 143,693 147,585 149,217 1.49 1.52 1.52 1.53 1.48 1.44 1.41 1.43 1.40 1.38 1.54 1.58 1.56 1.54 1.52 1.51 1.51 1.56 1.52 1.50 319,257 322,135 322,136 321,462 323,647 171,612 173,394 174,141 173,448 174,430 147,645 148,741 147,995 148,014 149,217 1.38 1.37 1.38 1.39 1.38 1.48 1.49 1.50 1.49 1.49 216,391 89,612 126,779 r 215,599 r 88,711 r 126,888 215,113 215,914 216,867 88,349 89,357 90,877 126,764 126,557 125,990 219,004 220,866 221,105 222,707 225,370 225,625 224,153 r 224,247 224,935 92,060 92,778 92,607 93,460 95,187 95,284 93,235 r 93,214 93,774 1 See page 21 for manufacturing. 2 Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. 3 Seasonally adjusted, end of period. 20 52,430 54,763 55,736 54,165 58,634 64,996 73,509 78,311 84,044 88,186 126,944 324,707 173,673 151,034 1.39 1.48 128,088 325,532 174,162 151,370 1.38 1.47 128,498 329,182 176,350 152,832 1.38 1.49 129,247 329,954 176,500 153,454 1.39 1.48 130,183 326,594 173,633 152,961 1.39 1.45 130,341 326,296 171,952 154,344 1.38 1.45 130,918 325,773 171,417 154,356 1.38 1.45 r 131,033 325,595 171,200 154,395 1.39 1.45 131,161 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ 4 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In September, manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and new orders rose; unfilled orders were unchanged. Manufacturers’ shipments 1 Manufacturers’ inventories 2 Manufacturers’ new orders 1 Durable goods Period Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Total Capital Nondurable goods goods industries, nondefense Manufacturers’ unfilled orders 2 Manufacturers’ inventory— shipments ratio 3 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted 1988 .................................... 1989 .................................... 1990 .................................... 1991 .................................... 1992 .................................... 1993 .................................... 1994 .................................... 1995 ..................................... 1996 ..................................... 1997 ..................................... 1997: Sept .......................... Oct ............................ Nov ........................... Dec ........................... 1998: Jan ........................... Feb ........................... Mar ........................... Apr ........................... May .......................... June ......................... July .......................... Aug r ......................... Sept p ........................ 224,619 236,698 242,686 239,847 250,394 260,635 279,002 299,555 309,622 327,452 333,422 332,321 331,404 336,424 331,937 335,883 338,991 335,553 333,622 335,110 335,380 336,445 339,412 118,458 123,158 123,776 121,000 128,489 135,886 149,131 160,586 167,013 179,892 184,966 183,225 182,791 186,007 182,303 187,298 189,998 186,843 185,789 186,536 186,907 188,789 192,069 106,161 113,540 118,910 118,847 121,905 124,749 129,870 138,970 142,608 147,560 148,456 149,096 148,613 150,417 149,634 148,585 148,993 148,710 147,833 148,574 148,473 147,656 147,343 369,374 391,212 405,073 390,950 382,510 384,039 404,877 430,985 436,729 456,133 452,224 455,553 457,766 456,133 458,197 461,178 461,948 464,668 465,729 466,701 467,636 468,445 468,642 242,468 257,513 263,209 250,019 238,105 239,334 253,624 268,353 273,815 286,372 284,660 286,654 287,949 286,372 288,086 290,153 290,887 293,393 294,375 295,143 295,669 296,913 297,016 1 Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. Shipments are the same as sales. 2 Seasonally adjusted, end of period. 126,906 133,699 141,864 140,931 144,405 144,705 151,253 162,632 162,914 169,761 167,564 168,899 169,817 169,761 170,111 171,025 171,061 171,275 171,354 171,558 171,967 171,532 171,626 228,270 239,572 244,507 238,805 248,212 257,698 279,733 300,632 312,442 329,335 334,091 334,576 342,310 334,974 336,432 334,446 334,712 337,502 330,233 331,188 334,821 337,815 339,220 122,076 126,055 125,583 119,849 126,308 133,081 149,542 161,782 169,711 181,726 185,557 185,410 193,621 184,635 187,048 186,033 185,963 188,921 182,777 182,986 186,617 190,304 191,813 31,108 32,988 33,331 30,471 31,524 31,694 35,697 40,511 44,631 48,165 49,303 50,450 58,759 47,027 52,302 50,436 50,502 51,240 50,834 51,053 50,763 55,371 53,469 106,194 113,516 118,924 118,957 121,905 124,617 130,191 138,851 142,730 147,610 148,534 149,166 148,689 150,339 149,384 148,413 148,749 148,581 147,456 148,202 148,204 147,511 147,407 474,154 508,849 531,131 519,199 492,893 457,810 466,699 479,674 513,062 536,131 524,420 526,675 537,581 536,131 540,626 539,189 534,910 536,859 533,470 529,548 528,989 530,359 530,167 1.57 1.63 1.65 1.65 1.54 1.47 1.41 1.41 1.40 1.37 1.36 1.37 1.38 1.36 1.38 1.37 1.36 1.38 1.40 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.38 3 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES The producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.3 percent in September. Prices of finished consumer foods rose 0.4 percent, while prices of other finished consumer goods rose 0.3 percent. Capital equipment prices rose 0.4 percent. [1982=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Finished goods Finished goods excluding consumer foods Period Total finished goods Consumer foods Consumer goods Total Total 1988 ............... 1989 ............... 1990 ............... 1991 ............... 1992 ............... 1993 ............... 1994 ............... 1995 ............... 1996 ............... 1997 ............... 1997: Sept .... Oct ...... Nov ..... Dec ..... 1998: Jan ..... Feb ...... Mar ..... Apr ..... May r ... June .... July .... Aug ..... Sept .... 108.0 113.6 119.2 121.7 123.2 124.7 125.5 127.9 131.3 131.8 131.8 131.8 131.6 131.4 130.6 130.5 130.4 130.6 130.7 130.4 130.7 130.2 130.6 112.6 118.7 124.4 124.1 123.3 125.7 126.8 129.0 133.6 134.5 133.8 134.7 134.3 134.3 133.8 134.1 133.7 134.4 133.9 133.9 134.5 134.0 134.6 106.5 111.8 117.4 120.9 123.1 124.4 125.1 127.5 130.5 130.9 131.1 130.9 130.7 130.4 129.6 129.3 129.3 129.4 129.6 129.2 129.5 128.9 129.3 Durable 103.1 108.9 115.3 118.7 120.8 121.7 121.6 124.0 127.6 128.2 128.3 128.2 128.0 127.7 126.5 126.1 126.1 126.4 126.7 126.1 126.5 125.8 126.2 1 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. NOTE.—Beginning 1998, indexes are based on updated weight allocations. 22 113.8 117.6 120.4 123.9 125.7 128.0 130.9 132.7 134.2 133.7 133.6 133.7 133.3 132.9 132.8 132.9 132.8 132.8 132.4 132.2 132.5 132.0 133.2 Nondurable 97.3 103.8 111.5 115.0 117.3 117.6 116.2 118.8 123.3 124.3 124.6 124.3 124.2 124.0 122.3 121.7 121.7 122.1 122.8 122.1 122.4 121.7 121.8 Capital equipment 114.3 118.8 122.9 126.7 129.1 131.4 134.1 136.7 138.3 138.2 138.4 138.0 137.9 137.7 137.6 137.6 137.7 137.6 137.4 137.4 137.5 137.1 137.6 Total finished consumer goods 106.2 112.1 118.2 120.5 121.7 123.0 123.3 125.6 129.5 130.2 130.1 130.3 130.0 129.8 128.8 128.6 128.5 128.9 129.0 128.6 129.0 128.4 128.9 Intermediate materials Crude materials Total Foods and feeds 1 Other Total Foodstuffs and feedstuffs Other 107.1 112.0 114.5 114.4 114.7 116.2 118.5 124.9 125.7 125.6 125.5 125.4 125.6 125.3 124.5 124.1 123.6 123.7 123.6 123.1 123.1 122.7 122.5 109.5 113.8 113.3 111.1 110.7 112.7 114.8 114.8 128.1 125.4 125.4 122.4 124.3 123.5 119.1 118.8 117.0 116.0 116.4 115.9 116.1 115.0 114.4 106.9 111.9 114.5 114.6 114.9 116.4 118.7 125.5 125.6 125.7 125.6 125.6 125.7 125.4 124.8 124.4 124.0 124.1 124.0 123.5 123.5 123.2 123.0 96.0 103.1 108.9 101.2 100.4 102.4 101.8 102.7 113.8 111.1 108.2 113.2 115.0 108.6 102.3 100.4 99.2 100.5 100.1 98.4 96.6 94.0 92.5 106.1 111.2 113.1 105.5 105.1 108.4 106.5 105.8 121.5 112.2 109.5 110.7 110.6 110.6 106.8 106.1 106.4 106.6 105.6 105.6 102.6 101.5 99.6 85.5 93.4 101.5 94.6 93.5 94.7 94.8 96.8 104.5 106.4 103.4 110.7 113.8 103.4 95.4 92.8 90.7 92.6 92.7 89.9 88.9 85.5 84.2 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In September, the consumer price index for all urban consumers was unchanged seasonally adjusted; it rose 0.1 percent not seasonally adjusted. The index was 1.5 percent above its year-earlier level. [1982–84=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] All items 1 Housing Transportation Shelter Period Rel. imp.3 ........................... 1988 ................................... 1989 ................................... 1990 ................................... 1991 ................................... 1992 ................................... 1993 ................................... 1994 ................................... 1995 ................................... 1996 ................................... 1997 ................................... 1997: Sept ........................ Oct ......................... Nov ........................ Dec ......................... 1998: Jan ......................... Feb ......................... Mar ......................... Apr ......................... May ......................... June ........................ July ........................ Aug ......................... Sept ........................ 1 Includes Not season- Seasonally ally adjust- adjusted ed (NSA) 100.0 118.3 124.0 130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 161.2 161.6 161.5 161.3 161.6 161.9 162.2 162.5 162.8 163.0 163.2 163.4 163.6 ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. 161.3 161.6 161.8 161.9 161.9 162.0 162.0 162.4 162.9 163.0 163.3 163.6 163.6 Total 1 Rent of primary residence Owners’ equivalent rent (12/82 =100) 29.8 127.1 132.8 140.0 146.3 151.2 155.7 160.5 165.7 171.0 176.3 177.0 177.6 178.0 178.7 179.0 179.5 179.9 180.6 181.3 181.6 181.9 182.4 183.3 6.9 127.8 132.8 138.4 143.3 146.9 150.3 154.0 157.8 162.0 166.7 167.8 168.2 168.6 169.1 169.5 169.7 170.3 170.7 171.3 171.8 172.2 172.8 173.4 20.2 131.1 137.4 144.8 150.4 155.5 160.5 165.8 171.3 176.8 181.9 183.0 183.4 183.9 184.5 184.9 185.5 185.9 186.6 187.2 187.6 188.1 188.5 189.0 Food Total 1 15.3 118.2 125.1 132.4 136.3 137.9 140.9 144.3 148.4 153.3 157.3 158.3 158.7 158.9 158.9 159.4 159.4 159.4 159.5 160.4 160.6 161.0 161.4 161.4 39.6 118.5 123.0 128.5 133.6 137.5 141.2 144.8 148.5 152.8 156.8 157.3 157.7 158.2 158.3 158.4 158.6 158.9 159.5 159.9 160.1 160.4 160.6 161.0 items not shown separately. fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc. excluded beginning 1983. 3 Relative importance, December 1997. 2 Household Fuels and utilities 4.9 104.4 107.8 111.6 115.3 117.8 121.3 122.8 123.7 127.5 130.8 130.7 131.0 132.1 130.7 129.1 127.9 128.3 128.7 128.8 128.3 128.3 127.8 127.0 Apparel 4.9 115.4 118.6 124.1 128.7 131.9 133.7 133.4 132.0 131.7 132.9 132.8 132.9 133.0 133.2 132.5 132.7 132.5 132.4 132.9 133.2 132.8 134.2 133.2 Total 1 New cars 17.6 ............ 108.7 116.9 114.1 119.2 120.5 121.0 123.8 125.3 126.5 128.4 130.4 131.5 134.3 136.0 139.1 139.0 143.0 141.4 144.3 141.7 144.7 141.5 144.7 141.4 143.9 141.1 143.5 140.7 143.0 140.8 142.4 140.8 141.7 140.8 141.5 140.9 141.7 140.4 141.3 140.1 141.7 140.8 141.7 141.3 141.1 141.0 Motor fuel 3.0 80.9 88.5 101.2 99.4 99.0 98.0 98.5 100.0 106.3 106.2 107.7 107.0 105.1 103.5 99.7 96.4 93.0 92.2 93.0 92.1 92.1 90.6 88.8 Medical care 5.6 138.6 149.3 162.8 177.0 190.1 201.4 211.0 220.5 228.2 234.6 235.9 236.3 237.1 237.9 238.2 238.9 239.6 240.6 241.4 242.3 242.8 243.7 244.4 Energy 2 All items less food and energy 7.0 89.3 94.3 102.1 102.5 103.0 104.2 104.6 105.2 110.1 111.5 111.5 111.3 111.3 109.3 106.7 104.3 103.0 102.9 103.2 102.5 102.5 101.5 100.2 77.7 123.4 129.0 135.5 142.1 147.3 152.2 156.5 161.2 165.6 169.5 170.4 170.8 171.0 171.4 171.7 172.2 172.4 172.9 173.3 173.5 173.8 174.2 174.5 NOTE.—See Bureau of Labor Statistics news release Consumer Price Index dated February 24, 1998, for details on recent changes in CPI structure and weights. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Period Change from preceding period Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate Consumer goods Consumer goods Consumer goods Total finished goods Excluding foods Foods Capital equipment Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Total finished goods Foods Excluding foods Capital equipment Total finished goods Foods Excluding foods Capital equipment 3.6 3.8 3.4 2.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.2 .4 ¥.6 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ 2.5 5.2 4.9 2.1 1.2 1.2 .6 1.9 2.7 .4 Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... 4.0 4.9 5.7 ¥.1 1.6 .2 1.7 2.3 2.8 ¥1.2 5.7 5.2 2.6 ¥1.5 1.6 2.4 1.1 1.9 3.4 ¥.8 3.1 5.3 8.7 ¥.7 1.6 ¥1.4 2.0 2.3 3.7 ¥1.5 Change, month to month ............... ................ ................ ................ 0.4 0 ¥.2 ¥.2 0 .7 ¥.3 0 0.6 ¥.1 ¥.2 ¥.2 0.2 ¥.3 ¥.1 ¥.1 1.2 2.2 .9 ¥1.2 ¥1.5 2.4 1.5 1.5 2.5 3.2 1.6 ¥1.9 0.6 ¥.3 ¥.6 ¥2.0 ¥0.9 ¥.2 ¥.2 0 ¥2.5 ¥.3 ¥1.6 0 ¥0.8 .3 .6 .3 ¥0.1 ¥.6 ¥.4 ¥.7 0 ¥.3 ¥.7 ¥1.2 1998: Jan ................. Feb ................. Mar ................ Apr ................ May r .............. June ............... July ................ Aug ................ Sept ............... ¥.6 ¥.1 ¥.1 .2 .1 r ¥.2 .2 ¥.4 .3 ¥.4 .2 ¥.3 .5 ¥.4 r0 .4 ¥.4 .4 ¥.9 ¥.3 0 .2 .2 r ¥.5 .3 ¥.6 .3 ¥.1 0 .1 ¥.1 ¥.1 0 .1 ¥.3 .4 ¥3.6 ¥3.3 ¥3.0 0 .6 0 .3 r ¥1.5 .6 ¥2.6 ¥.6 ¥1.8 1.8 ¥.6 .6 .3 r .3 2.1 ¥5.2 ¥5.8 ¥4.9 ¥.3 1.9 0 .3 r ¥2.8 .3 ¥1.2 ¥.9 0 0 ¥.6 ¥.9 ¥.3 ¥.9 .6 ¥.8 ¥1.2 ¥2.1 ¥1.8 ¥1.4 ¥1.5 .2 ¥.5 .3 ¥.1 .4 ¥.1 ¥.4 ¥.6 ¥.6 1.0 ¥.1 1.4 ¥1.1 ¥2.2 ¥3.4 ¥2.8 ¥2.0 ¥2.5 0 ¥.5 .2 ¥.7 ¥.7 ¥1.0 ¥.6 ¥.7 ¥.4 ¥.1 ¥.7 ¥.1 ¥1.7 ¥1.5 ¥1.5 ¥.9 ¥.8 ¥.8 ¥.3 ¥.8 ¥.9 1997: Sept Oct Nov Dec Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Housing Transportation Shelter Period All items 1 Food Total 1 Total 1 Rent of primary residence Owners’ equivalent rent Fuels and utilities Apparel Total 1 New cars Motor fuel Medical care Energy 2 All items less food and energy Addendum: All items, percent change (annual rate) From From From From 3 6 year previous months earlier quarter 3 earlier months earlier NSA Change, December to December, NSA 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ 4.4 4.6 6.1 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.5 3.3 1.7 5.2 5.6 5.3 1.9 1.5 2.9 2.9 2.1 4.3 1.5 4.0 3.9 4.5 3.4 2.6 2.7 2.2 3.0 2.9 2.4 4.5 4.9 5.2 3.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.5 2.9 3.4 3.6 4.2 4.1 2.9 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.1 4.8 5.1 4.8 3.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.7 2.8 3.1 2.9 3.2 4.0 2.9 2.3 2.5 .2 1.4 4.6 .5 4.7 3.0 2.1 ¥2.1 1.0 4.0 2.3 6.8 5.1 10.4 1.4 36.5 3.4 ¥1.5 3.3 ¥16.0 1.4 3.0 2.3 1.8 .9 2.4 2.8 ¥5.4 ¥1.6 3.8 3.2 5.9 .1 1.5 1.6 ¥4.0 ¥.2 4.4 1.6 12.7 1.0 ¥1.4 ¥1.0 ¥6.2 6.9 8.5 9.6 7.9 6.6 5.4 4.9 3.9 3.0 2.8 0.5 5.1 18.1 ¥7.4 2.0 ¥1.4 2.2 ¥1.3 8.6 ¥3.4 4.7 4.4 5.2 4.4 3.3 3.2 2.6 3.0 2.6 2.2 ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... 4.1 4.8 5.4 4.2 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.3 0.2 1.8 .2 ............. .1 ............. .2 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.3 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.7 .7 .5 .2 1.2 2.2 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.4 .9 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 Change, month to month 1997: Sept ............. Oct .............. Nov ............. Dec .............. 0.2 .2 .1 .1 1998: Jan .............. Feb .............. Mar .............. Apr .............. May .............. June ............ July .............. Aug .............. Sept ............. 0 .1 0 .2 .3 .1 .2 .2 0 0.1 .3 .1 0 0.3 .3 .3 .1 0.2 .3 .2 .4 0.3 .2 .2 .3 0.2 0.5 .2 .2 .3 .8 .3 ¥1.1 0.2 .1 .1 .2 .3 .1 .1 .2 .4 .3 .1 .2 .1 .2 .2 .3 .2 .4 .4 .2 .2 .3 .5 .2 .1 .4 .2 .4 .3 .2 .3 .3 .2 ¥1.2 .3 ¥.9 .2 .3 .4 .3 .3 .1 .2 ¥.4 .3 0 .2 ¥.4 .3 ¥.6 ¥.5 .2 ¥.2 ¥.1 .4 .2 ¥.3 1.1 ¥.7 0 0 .1 .6 .1 .2 .2 0 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc., excluded beginning 1983. 24 0.3 ¥0.1 0 ¥.1 ¥.6 ¥.2 ¥.3 ¥.3 1.2 ¥.6 ¥1.8 ¥1.5 0.2 .2 .3 .3 0.9 ¥.2 0 ¥1.8 ¥.3 ¥.4 ¥.5 ¥.1 .1 ¥.3 .3 0 ¥.4 ¥3.7 ¥3.3 ¥3.5 ¥.9 .9 ¥1.0 0 ¥1.6 ¥2.0 .1 .3 .3 .4 .3 .4 .2 .4 .3 ¥2.4 ¥2.2 ¥1.2 ¥.1 .3 ¥.7 0 ¥1.0 ¥1.3 .1 0 0 .1 ¥.4 ¥.2 .5 .4 ¥.2 3 Quarterly .2 .3 .1 .3 .2 .1 .2 .2 .2 ............. ............. .5 ............. ............. 2.0 ............. ............. 1.7 changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS In October, prices received and prices paid by farmers were unchanged. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) [1990–92=100; not seasonally adjusted] Prices received by farmers Period 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 All farm products Prices paid by farmers Livestock and products Crops All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates 1 Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates Production items Ratio 2 ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................... 99 104 104 100 98 101 100 102 112 107 104 109 103 101 101 102 105 112 126 115 93 100 105 99 97 100 95 92 99 98 91 96 99 100 101 104 106 109 114 117 92 97 99 100 101 103 106 108 114 117 90 95 99 100 101 104 106 108 114 117 108 108 105 99 97 97 94 94 98 91 1997: Oct ...................... Nov ...................... Dec ...................... 107 107 105 114 114 111 97 98 97 117 117 117 117 117 116 116 117 116 91 91 90 1998: Jan ...................... Feb ...................... Mar ..................... Apr ...................... May ...................... June ..................... July ...................... Aug ..................... Sept ..................... Oct ....................... 103 101 102 104 103 102 102 101 r 99 99 r 110 94 94 95 95 95 98 96 98 97 98 117 117 116 116 116 115 115 114 113 113 117 116 115 115 115 114 113 113 111 111 116 115 114 114 114 113 112 111 110 110 88 86 88 90 89 89 89 89 r 88 88 1 Includes 109 111 115 113 107 r 108 104 r 101 101 items not shown separately. 2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910–14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1990–92=100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES M2 and M3 growth accelerated in September. [Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] M1 M2 M3 Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers’ checks, and other checkable deposits (OCDs) M1 plus retail MMMF balances, savings deposits (including MMDAs), and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, RPs, Eurodollars, and institutiononly MMMF balances ................................. ................................. ................................. ................................. ................................. ................................. ................................. ................................. ................................. ................................. 787.0 794.2 825.8 897.3 1,025.0 1,129.9 1,150.7 1,128.7 1,082.8 1,076.0 2,996.4 3,161.0 3,279.6 3,379.9 3,434.7 3,487.5 3,503.0 3,651.2 3,826.1 4,046.4 3,913.1 4,066.3 4,126.8 4,182.1 4,193.5 4,258.9 4,333.6 4,595.6 4,931.1 5,376.8 4,663.7 4,893.2 4,977.5 5,008.0 5,081.4 5,173.3 5,315.8 5,702.3 6,083.6 6,611.3 9,463.6 10,157.0 10,823.2 11,296.2 11,818.2 12,407.3 12,999.5 13,697.6 14,425.2 15,167.8 5.0 .9 4.0 8.7 14.2 10.2 1.8 ¥1.9 ¥4.1 ¥.6 5.8 5.5 3.8 3.1 1.6 1.5 .4 4.2 4.8 5.8 6.5 3.9 1.5 1.3 .3 1.6 1.8 6.0 7.3 9.0 9.1 7.3 6.6 4.4 4.6 5.0 4.8 5.4 5.3 5.1 1997: Aug ................................. Sept ................................ Oct .................................. Nov ................................. Dec ................................. 1,071.1 1,063.5 1,061.9 1,069.2 1,076.0 3,957.4 3,979.3 3,999.3 4,023.6 4,046.4 5,198.7 5,237.8 5,274.8 5,326.3 5,376.8 6,406.5 6,446.0 6,481.0 6,548.4 6,611.3 14,867.2 14,935.2 15,011.0 15,089.5 15,167.8 ¥1.4 ¥2.1 ¥1.2 .9 2.0 5.4 5.7 5.6 6.6 7.0 8.2 8.3 8.0 9.4 10.4 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.9 1998: Jan ................................. Feb ................................. Mar ................................. Apr ................................. May r ............................... June r .............................. July r ............................... Aug r ............................... Sept ................................ 1,073.7 1,076.5 1,081.1 1,080.7 1,077.7 1,074.5 1,071.8 1,068.9 1,072.1 4,071.8 4,105.0 4,133.9 4,167.2 4,177.5 4,196.1 4,213.2 4,243.1 4,295.5 5,423.3 5,464.1 5,530.1 5,580.0 5,614.3 5,645.9 5,652.8 5,708.0 5,777.1 1.5 1.0 3.3 3.5 1.6 ¥.3 ¥.4 ¥1.4 ¥1.7 7.5 7.5 7.8 8.4 7.6 7.4 6.9 6.7 7.8 10.5 10.2 11.2 11.6 10.8 10.0 8.5 8.9 8.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.1 6.1 ............ Period 1988: 1989: 1990: 1991: 1992: 1993: 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data derived from flow of funds accounts. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months 26 L Debt M3 plus other liquid assets Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors (monthly average of adjacent month-end levels) 1 r 6,683.3 r 15,240.8 r 6,756.8 r 15,321.5 r 6,831.7 r 15,404.3 r 6,863.9 r 15,484.2 6,887.1 6,928.2 6,926.1 p 6,980.8 .................... 15,561.8 15,633.1 15,708.4 p 15,785.3 ...................... Percent change from year or 6 months earlier 2 M1 earlier at a simple annual rate. NOTE.—See p. 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. M2 M3 Debt COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period 1988: 1989: 1990: 1991: 1992: 1993: 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Other Decheckmand able depos- deposits its (OCDs) Currency Money market mutual fund balances Retail Savings deposits, Large Small including denomination denommoney ination time market Institime deposdeposit tution deposits 1 its 1 accounts only (MMDAs) Overnight and term repurchase agreements (RPs) (net) Overnight and term Eurodollars (net) Shortterm Treasury securities Savings bonds Bankers’ acceptances Commercial paper ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... 212.3 222.7 246.8 267.3 292.9 322.2 354.3 372.4 394.9 425.5 286.8 279.3 277.4 289.6 339.5 385.2 384.0 391.0 403.6 397.1 280.9 285.3 293.9 332.5 384.4 414.5 403.9 356.4 275.9 245.2 245.9 321.7 357.2 372.2 354.0 355.6 385.0 454.9 522.8 603.2 92.5 110.7 138.8 186.8 209.8 212.6 203.1 253.9 310.3 376.2 926.3 893.7 923.8 1,045.2 1,187.4 1,219.5 1,149.9 1,134.7 1,271.7 1,397.5 1,037.1 1,151.4 1,172.7 1,065.3 868.3 782.6 817.4 933.0 948.8 969.6 518.3 541.5 481.0 416.6 353.5 333.6 363.4 419.6 491.2 572.9 189.0 158.0 138.8 119.5 128.6 158.8 183.3 182.4 194.2 236.1 117.0 95.2 88.7 79.3 66.9 66.3 80.8 88.6 109.2 145.3 109.4 117.5 126.0 137.9 156.6 171.5 180.2 184.7 186.9 186.4 266.8 324.0 334.1 328.8 344.7 340.8 382.9 469.2 454.8 r 429.6 40.2 40.7 36.2 23.9 21.0 14.9 14.1 11.4 12.4 12.1 334.3 344.6 354.4 335.2 365.7 387.1 405.0 441.3 498.5 606.3 1997: Aug ...................... Sept ..................... Oct ...................... Nov ...................... Dec ...................... 412.6 415.6 418.3 421.9 425.5 401.9 391.9 389.6 394.5 397.1 248.2 247.8 245.8 244.6 245.2 578.9 590.3 595.2 601.5 603.2 348.4 356.6 363.4 365.7 376.2 1,343.0 1,359.7 1,374.7 1,384.5 1,397.5 964.4 965.7 967.5 968.4 969.6 552.4 559.7 560.8 567.3 572.9 210.3 209.8 219.5 233.9 236.1 130.2 132.4 131.8 135.7 145.3 186.4 186.4 186.4 186.4 186.4 445.3 445.0 435.2 441.5 r 429.6 13.0 12.9 13.4 13.0 12.1 563.2 563.9 571.3 581.3 606.3 1998: Jan ..................... Feb ..................... Mar ..................... Apr ...................... May ..................... June .................... July r ................... Aug r ................... Sept ..................... 427.5 431.0 432.4 433.7 435.5 438.2 441.2 443.7 449.5 392.8 392.0 391.2 388.6 387.9 383.1 378.0 374.2 373.6 245.2 245.5 249.5 250.5 246.3 245.4 244.8 243.2 241.2 614.8 630.0 641.9 651.9 662.8 674.3 677.4 696.1 724.1 380.8 384.7 391.9 408.8 422.0 432.1 430.2 443.3 457.5 1,411.9 1,427.6 1,441.8 1,468.2 1,473.8 r 1,484.9 1,503.0 1,517.8 1,537.8 971.4 970.8 969.1 966.5 963.2 962.4 961.0 960.3 961.5 577.4 592.4 610.9 609.9 r 615.1 623.5 609.5 614.0 613.5 246.9 241.7 259.7 259.7 261.4 254.3 258.1 265.1 272.2 146.5 186.3 r 434.4 12.2 627.1 140.3 186.3 r 455.1 11.2 640.2 r 133.8 186.2 438.4 11.3 665.7 134.3 186.1 r 410.7 13.0 674.2 138.3 186.0 r 407.8 13.3 665.5 139.9 186.0 r 396.6 13.4 686.2 141.9 186.0 371.3 14.6 701.6 142.4 p 185.9 p 374.3 p 14.8 p 697.7 138.4 ............ ............ ............ .............. 1 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. NOTE.—Travelers checks of nonbank issuers are a component of money stock but are not shown here. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE [Averages of daily figures 1; millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements Borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal Reserve (NSA) Reserves of depository institutions Period Total 1988: 1989: 1990: 1991: 1992: 1993: 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Nonborrowed ............................................................................. ............................................................................. ............................................................................. ............................................................................. ............................................................................. ............................................................................. ............................................................................. ............................................................................. ............................................................................ ............................................................................. 40,434 40,504 41,790 45,535 54,358 60,524 59,407 56,399 50,083 46,669 1997: Oct ............................................................................. Nov ............................................................................ Dec ............................................................................ 45,958 r 46,301 46,669 46,345 46,345 1998: Jan ............................................................................ Feb ............................................................................ Mar ............................................................................ Apr ............................................................................ May ............................................................................ June ........................................................................... July ............................................................................ Aug ............................................................................. Sept ............................................................................ Oct p (estimates) ......................................................... 46,501 45,722 r 46,045 45,959 45,591 45,391 r 44,813 44,997 44,585 44,423 r 46,291 r 46,291 45,664 r 46,004 45,887 45,438 45,140 44,556 44,726 44,334 44,249 45,664 r 46,004 45,887 45,438 45,140 44,556 44,726 44,334 44,249 1 Data are prorated averages of biweekly (maintenance period) averages of daily figures. 38,718 40,238 41,464 45,343 54,234 60,442 59,198 56,141 49,929 46,345 Nonborrowed plus extended credit Required Monetary base Total Seasonal Extended credit 39,962 40,258 41,487 45,344 54,235 60,442 59,198 56,141 49,929 46,345 39,386 39,581 40,125 44,556 53,202 59,461 58,238 55,121 48,660 44,986 257,042 267,767 293,248 317,446 351,030 386,531 418,121 434,168 452,384 480,152 1,716 265 326 192 124 82 209 257 155 324 130 84 76 38 18 31 100 40 68 79 1,244 20 23 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 45,688 45,688 r 46,148 44,562 44,693 44,986 471,983 r 46,148 r 476,178 270 153 324 227 115 79 0 0 0 210 58 41 72 153 251 258 271 251 174 18 12 22 41 94 159 215 242 178 107 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 44,721 44,198 44,731 44,614 44,441 43,771 43,449 r 43,484 42,901 42,808 480,152 r 482,837 484,226 r 485,860 487,203 489,102 491,634 493,672 497,313 502,091 506,155 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK CREDIT AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS Total commercial bank loans and leases rose 1.1 percent in September; commercial and industrial loans rose 1.3 percent. [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1] Securities in bank credit Period 1988: 1989: 1990: 1991: 1992: 1993: 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: Total bank credit Total securities Loans and leases in bank credit U.S. Total loans CommerGovernOther and cial and ment securities leases 2 industrial securities Real estate Total Revolving home equity Consumer Security Other Other Dec ..................... Dec ..................... Dec ..................... Dec ..................... Dec ..................... Dec ..................... Dec ..................... Dec ..................... Dec r ................... Dec r ................... 2,434.9 2,609.5 2,754.7 2,859.3 2,956.7 3,115.4 3,320.3 3,604.9 3,752.7 4,095.2 561.4 584.4 634.1 745.9 841.4 915.2 940.8 986.1 971.2 1,081.8 366.7 400.2 456.0 566.0 664.2 730.1 721.9 702.9 697.3 747.3 194.7 184.3 178.1 179.9 177.2 185.2 218.9 283.2 273.9 334.5 1,873.5 2,025.1 2,120.6 2,113.3 2,115.3 2,200.1 2,379.6 2,618.7 2,781.6 3,013.4 607.0 638.8 641.2 619.8 596.2 586.4 646.0 718.0 783.4 852.3 674.1 769.3 855.4 880.0 901.1 941.4 1,003.4 1,081.0 1,131.8 1,232.7 40.1 50.3 62.4 69.7 73.5 73.1 75.3 79.1 84.8 97.7 634.0 718.9 793.0 810.3 827.6 868.3 928.1 1,001.9 1,047.0 1,135.0 357.8 378.4 383.9 366.9 359.2 391.1 451.9 495.3 515.9 506.9 40.9 41.8 45.6 55.0 65.2 89.6 78.8 85.7 77.9 96.9 193.7 196.8 194.5 191.7 193.6 191.6 199.4 238.7 272.5 324.5 1997: Sept r ................. Oct r ................... Nov r .................. Dec r .................. 1998: Jan r ................... Feb r .................. Mar r .................. Apr r .................. May r ................. June r ................ July r ................. Aug r .................. Sept .................. 4,006.7 4,031.1 4,074.0 4,095.2 4,155.3 4,185.1 4,223.3 4,221.0 4,250.8 4,262.6 4,279.0 4,340.9 4,398.2 1,036.3 1,043.6 1,075.0 1,081.8 1,110.2 1,112.7 1,129.7 1,109.8 1,125.9 1,120.2 1,128.3 1,153.6 1,174.5 724.5 731.5 742.8 747.3 762.9 769.7 780.8 764.9 772.0 755.7 759.5 769.7 766.8 311.8 312.1 332.1 334.5 347.3 343.1 348.8 344.9 353.9 364.6 368.8 383.9 407.7 2,970.5 2,987.4 2,999.1 3,013.4 3,045.1 3,072.3 3,093.6 3,111.3 3,124.9 3,142.4 3,150.7 3,187.3 3,223.7 837.6 841.4 844.4 852.3 862.1 870.2 872.1 869.8 883.8 897.7 902.7 911.3 923.0 1,215.0 1,219.5 1,228.4 1,232.7 1,236.6 1,252.1 1,264.9 1,273.5 1,272.2 1,269.2 1,270.9 1,280.1 1,281.4 95.4 95.9 96.8 97.7 98.0 98.1 98.3 98.4 97.9 97.6 97.3 97.3 97.7 1,119.7 1,123.6 1,131.6 1,135.0 1,138.7 1,154.0 1,166.7 1,175.1 1,174.3 1,171.6 1,173.6 1,182.8 1,183.8 515.5 507.9 507.2 506.9 503.9 502.1 502.4 506.1 506.2 502.3 494.7 493.7 496.9 95.8 104.1 99.3 96.9 116.6 118.1 116.9 115.8 120.9 127.7 131.1 138.4 144.1 306.5 314.5 319.7 324.5 325.8 329.9 337.3 346.1 341.9 345.5 351.3 363.8 378.3 1 Data are Wednesday values or prorated averages of Wednesday values for domestically chartered commercial banks, branches and agencies of foreign banks, New York State investment companies (through September 1996), and Edge Act and agreement corporations. Data are adjusted for breaks caused by reclassifications of assets and liabilities. 28 2 Excludes Federal funds sold to, reverse repurchase agreements (RPs) with, and loans to commercial banks in the United States. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses External Period Credit market funds Total Internal 1 Total Total Total 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1995: ......................... ......................... ......................... ......................... ......................... ......................... ......................... ......................... ......................... ......................... I .................... II .................. III ................. IV ................. 1996: I .................... II .................. III ................. IV ................. 1997: I .................... II .................. III ................. IV ................. 1998: I .................... II p ................. 854.0 747.1 596.2 492.9 602.5 702.7 791.6 994.7 977.1 1,026.2 874.8 937.7 1,024.0 1,142.2 1,046.1 926.1 974.2 962.0 1,040.9 924.9 1,113.9 1,024.9 1,260.5 1,107.8 410.3 399.7 412.7 425.8 441.2 484.8 550.0 603.9 630.9 667.1 571.4 590.4 620.1 633.4 619.4 623.7 630.6 649.8 646.1 666.6 684.3 671.4 690.5 685.9 443.7 347.4 183.5 67.1 161.3 217.9 241.6 390.8 346.2 359.1 303.4 347.3 403.9 508.8 426.7 302.4 343.6 312.2 394.8 258.3 429.6 353.5 570.0 421.9 Securities and mortgages 102.7 51.8 52.5 ¥33.3 74.1 73.4 98.7 174.4 101.3 153.1 221.0 216.8 96.2 163.5 69.8 177.5 105.4 52.6 124.8 123.6 163.1 201.0 196.9 234.2 9.6 ¥40.6 ¥15.4 83.7 84.0 98.4 7.9 57.2 37.7 18.3 65.1 74.1 13.8 75.7 18.6 107.7 ¥35.2 59.7 23.0 35.8 40.1 ¥25.5 79.0 92.5 1 Profits before tax (book) less profit tax accruals and dividends plus consumption of fixed capital, foreign earnings retained abroad, and inventory valuation adjustment. 2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, pension fund liabilities, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. Loans and short-term paper 93.1 92.4 67.9 ¥117.0 ¥9.9 ¥25.0 90.8 117.2 63.6 134.8 155.9 142.7 82.4 87.8 51.2 69.8 140.6 ¥7.1 101.8 87.8 123.0 226.5 117.9 141.7 Other 2 340.9 295.5 131.0 100.4 87.3 144.5 142.9 216.5 244.9 205.9 82.3 130.4 307.6 345.3 356.9 124.9 238.1 259.5 270.0 134.8 266.4 152.5 373.1 187.6 Capital expenditures 3 714.7 577.3 513.9 457.6 534.4 787.2 796.7 1,000.5 998.4 1,016.0 816.7 956.7 1,031.0 1,197.7 1,013.7 932.7 1,018.6 1,028.9 1,031.7 948.4 1,062.6 1,021.4 1,218.9 1,087.9 Increase in financial assets 360.2 389.7 382.4 368.5 382.0 445.2 513.4 567.0 600.1 682.3 574.6 561.4 581.6 550.4 563.1 578.7 621.3 637.5 648.3 707.7 678.3 694.8 747.2 704.6 Discrepancy (sources less uses) 354.5 187.6 131.5 89.1 152.4 342.0 283.3 433.5 398.3 333.7 242.1 395.3 449.4 647.3 450.6 354.0 397.3 391.4 383.4 240.7 384.3 326.6 471.7 383.3 139.4 169.8 82.3 35.2 68.1 ¥84.4 ¥5.0 ¥5.8 ¥21.4 10.1 58.1 ¥19.0 ¥7.0 ¥55.5 32.4 ¥6.5 ¥44.4 ¥67.0 9.1 ¥23.5 51.4 3.5 41.6 19.8 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and access rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER CREDIT [Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Net change in consumer credit outstanding 1 Consumer credit outstanding (end of period) Period Total Dec 3 .................................. Dec .................................... Dec .................................... Dec .................................... Dec .................................... Dec .................................... Dec .................................... Dec .................................... Dec .................................... Dec .................................... Sept ................................... Oct .................................... Nov ................................... Dec .................................... 1998: Jan r ................................... Feb r .................................. Mar r .................................. Apr r ................................... May r .................................. June r ................................. July r .................................. Aug ................................... Sept p ................................. 1988: 1989: 1990: 1991: 1992: 1993: 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1997: 719.0 779.0 789.3 777.2 779.9 839.1 960.7 1,095.7 1,181.9 1,233.1 1,223.9 1,230.2 1,227.1 1,233.1 1,235.5 1,240.5 1,247.4 1,251.9 1,254.3 1,263.7 1,269.3 1,273.7 1,282.1 Automobile Other 2 Revolving 285.3 290.8 283.5 263.4 262.7 288.1 327.9 364.2 392.3 413.4 405.1 408.6 407.3 413.4 415.3 416.7 419.8 421.2 422.6 425.5 427.7 431.5 433.4 1 For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month. 2 Outstanding loans for mobile homes, education, boats, trailers, vacations, etc., plus noninstallment credit. 3 Data newly available in January 1989 result in breaks in many series between December 1988 and subsequent months. 184.6 211.2 238.6 263.7 278.2 310.0 365.6 443.2 499.5 531.1 526.8 529.1 530.3 531.1 533.0 535.3 539.4 541.8 541.2 545.3 543.1 545.3 548.4 4 Because 249.2 277.0 267.2 250.1 239.1 241.1 267.2 288.3 290.1 288.6 292.0 292.5 289.5 288.6 287.1 288.4 288.2 288.8 290.5 292.8 298.4 297.0 300.4 Total 42.7 (4) 10.3 ¥12.1 2.7 59.2 121.6 135.0 86.2 51.2 3.2 6.3 ¥3.1 6.0 2.4 5.0 6.9 4.5 2.4 9.4 5.6 4.4 8.4 Automobile 19.2 ( 4) ¥7.3 ¥20.1 ¥.7 25.4 39.8 36.3 28.1 21.1 1.9 3.5 ¥1.3 6.1 1.9 1.4 3.1 1.4 1.4 2.9 2.2 3.8 1.9 Revolving 23.7 ( 4) 27.4 25.1 14.5 31.8 55.6 77.6 56.3 31.6 3.0 2.3 1.2 .8 1.9 2.3 4.1 2.4 ¥.6 4.1 ¥2.2 2.2 3.1 Other 2 ¥0.2 ( 4) ¥9.8 ¥17.1 ¥11.0 2.0 26.1 21.1 1.8 ¥1.5 ¥1.7 .5 ¥3.0 ¥.9 ¥1.5 1.3 ¥.2 .6 1.7 2.3 5.6 ¥1.4 3.4 of breaks in series, net change not available. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates fell in October. [Percent per annum] U.S. Treasury security yields Period 1988 ................ 1989 ................ 1990 ................ 1991 ............... 1992 ............... 1993 ................ 1994 ................ 1995 ................ 1996 ................ 1997 ................ 1997: Oct ...... Nov ...... Dec ..... 1998: Jan ...... Feb ...... Mar ..... Apr ...... May ..... June .... July ..... Aug ...... Sept ..... Oct ....... Week ended: 1998: Oct 10 17 24 31 Nov 7 1 Bank-discount 3-month bills (new issues) 1 Constant 3-year maturities 2 10-year 30-year Highgrade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor’s) 3 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody’s) Prime commercial paper, 6 months 1 7.68 8.80 7.95 5.85 3.80 3.30 4.93 5.93 5.42 30 Prime rate charged by banks 4 9.32 10.87 10.01 8.46 6.25 6.00 7.15 8.83 8.27 8.44 8.50–8.50 8.50–8.50 8.50–8.50 8.50–8.50 8.50–8.50 8.50–8.50 8.50–8.50 8.50–8.50 8.50–8.50 8.50–8.50 8.50–8.50 8.50–8.25 8.25–8.00 7.57 9.21 8.10 5.69 3.52 3.02 4.21 5.83 5.30 5.46 5.50 5.52 5.50 5.56 5.51 5.49 5.45 5.49 5.56 5.54 5.55 5.51 5.07 9.19 10.13 10.05 9.32 8.24 7.20 7.49 7.87 7.80 7.71 7.54 7.40 7.40 7.27 7.24 7.17 7.19 7.18 7.16 7.13 7.09 6.98 .............. 8.25–8.25 8.25–8.00 8.00–8.00 8.00–8.00 8.00–8.00 5.22 5.14 4.87 4.95 5.22 .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 6.69 8.12 7.51 5.42 3.45 3.02 4.29 5.51 5.02 5.07 4.95 5.15 5.16 5.09 5.11 5.03 5.00 5.03 4.99 4.96 4.94 4.74 4.08 8.26 8.55 8.26 6.82 5.30 4.44 6.27 6.25 5.99 6.10 5.84 5.76 5.74 5.38 5.43 5.57 5.58 5.61 5.52 5.47 5.24 4.62 4.18 8.85 8.49 8.55 7.86 7.01 5.87 7.09 6.57 6.44 6.35 6.03 5.88 5.81 5.54 5.57 5.65 5.64 5.65 5.50 5.46 5.34 4.81 4.53 8.96 8.45 8.61 8.14 7.67 6.59 7.37 6.88 6.71 6.61 6.33 6.11 5.99 5.81 5.89 5.95 5.92 5.93 5.70 5.68 5.54 5.20 5.01 7.76 7.23 7.25 6.89 6.40 5.62 6.19 5.95 5.75 5.54 5.37 5.38 5.22 5.07 5.16 5.30 5.33 5.21 5.13 5.18 5.13 4.98 4.90 9.71 9.26 9.32 8.77 8.14 7.22 7.96 7.59 7.37 7.27 7.00 6.87 6.76 6.61 6.67 6.72 6.69 6.69 6.53 6.55 6.52 6.40 6.37 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 6.20 6.93 6.98 5.45 3.25 3.00 3.60 5.21 5.02 5.00 5.00–5.00 5.00–5.00 5.00–5.00 5.00–5.00 5.00–5.00 5.00–5.00 5.00–5.00 5.00–5.00 5.00–5.00 5.00–5.00 5.00–5.00 5.00–5.00 5.00–4.75 4.16 3.91 3.85 4.07 4.43 4.18 4.22 4.15 4.20 4.50 4.41 4.58 4.59 4.63 4.83 4.88 5.02 5.08 5.12 5.29 4.77 4.92 4.91 5.00 5.05 6.25 6.45 6.47 6.44 6.56 * * * * * 5.00–5.00 5.00–4.75 4.75–4.75 4.75–4.75 4.75–4.75 basis. on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 5 Daily effective rate; average of the rates on a given day weighted by the volume of transactions at these rates. 2 Yields Newhome mortgage yields (FHFB) 6 Discount rate (N.Y. F.R. Bank) 4 Federal funds rate 5 6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. *Series no longer published by Federal Reserve (FR). See FR release H. 15 Selected Interest Rates, May 12, 1997. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Housing Finance Board, Moody’s Investors Service, and Standard & Poor’s. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Overall, stock prices rose in October. Common stock prices 1 Period Composite 1988 ............................................. 1989 ............................................. 1990 ............................................. 1991 ............................................. 1992 ............................................. 1993 ............................................. 1994 ............................................. 1995 ............................................. 1996 ............................................. 1997 ............................................. 1997: Oct .................................... Nov ................................... Dec .................................... 1998: Jan .................................... Feb .................................... Mar .................................. Apr ................................... May ................................... June .................................. July ................................... Aug ................................... Sept ................................... Oct .................................... Week ended: 1998: Oct 10 .............................. 17 .............................. 24 .............................. 31 .............................. Nov 7 .............................. 1 Average Industrial Transportation 3 Dec. Utility 3 Finance Dow-Jones industrial average 4 Standard & Poor’s composite index (1941– 43=10) 5 Dividendprice ratio Earningsprice ratio 149.91 180.02 183.46 206.33 229.01 249.58 254.12 291.15 358.17 456.54 499.25 492.08 504.66 504.13 532.15 560.70 578.05 574.46 569.76 586.39 539.16 506.56 511.49 180.95 216.23 225.78 258.14 284.62 299.99 315.25 367.34 453.98 574.52 625.22 615.57 623.57 624.61 660.91 693.13 711.89 712.39 704.14 718.54 665.66 629.51 636.62 134.12 175.28 158.62 173.99 201.09 242.49 247.29 269.41 327.33 414.60 466.04 453.49 461.04 458.49 485.73 508.06 523.73 505.02 492.98 503.89 441.36 408.75 396.61 143.53 174.87 181.20 185.32 198.91 228.90 209.06 220.30 249.77 283.82 302.83 307.52 325.60 332.50 341.91 367.48 378.92 372.62 376.51 388.78 372.48 372.33 390.17 127.26 151.88 133.26 150.82 179.26 216.42 209.73 238.45 303.89 424.48 476.70 465.29 490.30 479.81 508.97 539.47 563.07 551.28 548.57 579.67 511.22 454.28 448.12 2,060.82 2,508.91 2,678.94 2,929.33 3,284.29 3,522.06 3,793.77 4,493.76 5,742.89 7,441.15 7,875.82 7,677.36 7,909.82 7,808.35 8,323.61 8,709.47 9,037.44 9,080.07 8,872.96 9,097.14 8,478.52 7,909.79 8,164.47 265.79 322.84 334.59 376.18 415.74 451.41 460.33 541.64 670.83 872.72 951.16 938.92 962.37 963.36 1,023.74 1,076.83 1,112.20 1,108.42 1,108.39 1,156.58 1,074.62 1,020.64 1,032.47 3.64 3.45 3.61 3.24 2.99 2.78 2.82 2.56 2.19 1.77 1.61 1.65 1.62 1.62 1.55 1.48 1.43 1.45 1.45 1.39 1.48 1.59 1.59 8.01 7.42 6.47 4.79 4.22 4.46 5.83 6.09 5.24 4.57 .................. .................. 4.09 .................. .................. 3.59 .................. .................. 3.44 .................. .................. .................. .................. 486.51 504.15 529.20 533.02 557.09 605.00 627.55 658.76 665.61 695.07 367.70 385.94 419.29 416.99 443.76 391.33 386.47 389.79 393.90 408.20 413.28 440.65 473.13 470.23 495.11 7,768.47 8,124.90 8,495.39 8,451.47 8,817.27 977.53 1,020.39 1,069.08 1,078.07 1,123.19 1.68 1.64 1.52 1.53 1.47 .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. of daily closing prices. all the stocks (more than 3,000) listed on the NYSE. 31, 1965=100. Effective April 27, 1993 the NYSE doubled the value of the utility index to facilitate trading of options and futures on the index. All indexes shown here reflect the doubling. 4 Includes 30 stocks. 2 Includes Common stock yields (percent) 6 New York Stock Exchange indexes (Dec. 31, 1965=50, except as noted) 2 5 Includes 500 stocks. & Poor’s series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor’s. 6 Standard 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In fiscal 1998, there was a surplus of $70.0 billion, compared with a deficit of $22.0 billion a year earlier. [Billions of dollars] Total Fiscal year or period 1980 .................................. 1981 .................................. 1982 .................................. 1983 .................................. 1984 .................................. 1985 .................................. 1986 .................................. 1987 .................................. 1988 .................................. 1989 .................................. 1990 .................................. 1991 .................................. 1992 .................................. 1993 .................................. 1994 .................................. 1995 .................................. 1996 .................................. 19971 ................................ 19981 ................................ 1999 (estimates) ............... Receipts Outlays 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 734.1 769.2 854.4 909.3 991.2 1,032.0 1,055.0 1,091.3 1,154.4 1,258.6 1,351.8 1,453.1 1,579.0 1,721.4 1,784.3 590.9 678.2 745.8 808.4 851.9 946.4 990.5 1,004.1 1,064.5 1,143.7 1,253.2 1,324.4 1,381.7 1,409.4 1,461.7 1,515.7 1,560.5 1,600.9 1,651.4 1,730.0 On-budget Surplus or deficit (¥) ¥73.8 ¥79.0 ¥128.0 ¥207.8 ¥185.4 ¥212.3 ¥221.2 ¥149.8 ¥155.2 ¥152.5 ¥221.2 ¥269.4 ¥290.4 ¥255.0 ¥203.1 ¥163.9 ¥107.5 ¥22.0 70.0 54.2 Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (¥) 403.9 469.1 474.3 453.2 500.4 547.9 569.0 641.0 667.8 727.5 750.3 761.2 788.9 842.5 923.6 1,000.8 1,085.6 1,187.0 1,305.6 1,344.6 476.6 543.1 594.4 661.3 686.1 769.6 807.0 810.3 861.8 932.8 1,028.1 1,082.7 1,129.3 1,142.8 1,182.4 1,227.1 1,259.6 1,290.3 1,334.8 1,403.9 ¥72.7 ¥74.0 ¥120.1 ¥208.0 ¥185.7 ¥221.7 ¥238.0 ¥169.3 ¥194.0 ¥205.2 ¥277.8 ¥321.6 ¥340.5 ¥300.4 ¥258.8 ¥226.3 ¥174.0 ¥103.3 ¥29.2 ¥59.3 1 Data from Monthly Treasury Statement. NOTE.—Data for fiscal 1999 are from the Mid-Session Review, Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 1999, issued May 26, 1998. Other data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1999 issued February 2, 1998. 32 Off-budget Receipts 113.2 130.2 143.5 147.3 166.1 186.2 200.2 213.4 241.5 263.7 281.7 293.9 302.4 311.9 335.0 351.1 367.5 392.0 415.8 439.6 Outlays 114.3 135.2 151.4 147.1 165.8 176.8 183.5 193.8 202.7 210.9 225.1 241.7 252.3 266.6 279.4 288.7 300.9 310.6 316.6 326.1 Federal debt (end of period) Surplus or deficit (¥) ¥1.1 ¥5.0 ¥7.9 .2 .3 9.4 16.7 19.6 38.8 52.8 56.6 52.2 50.1 45.3 55.7 62.4 66.6 81.4 99.2 113.5 Gross Federal 909.1 994.8 1,137.3 1,371.7 1,564.7 1,817.5 2,120.6 2,346.1 2,601.3 2,868.0 3,206.6 3,598.5 4,002.1 4,351.4 4,643.7 4,921.0 5,181.9 5,369.7 5,478.7 5,660.5 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. Held by the public 709.8 785.3 919.8 1,131.6 1,300.5 1,499.9 1,736.7 1,888.7 2,050.8 2,189.9 2,410.7 2,688.1 2,998.8 3,247.5 3,432.1 3,603.4 3,733.0 3,771.1 3,720.1 3,714.1 FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In fiscal 1998, receipts were $142.4 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $50.5 billion higher. [Billions of dollars] On-budget and off-budget receipts Fiscal year or period Total 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes Social insurance and retirement receipts On-budget and off-budget outlays National defense Other Total Total InterDepart- nationment of al Defense, affairs military Health Medicare Income Social security security Net interest Other ...................................................... ...................................................... ...................................................... ...................................................... ...................................................... 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 244.1 285.9 297.7 288.9 298.4 64.6 61.1 49.2 37.0 56.9 157.8 182.7 201.5 209.0 239.4 50.6 69.5 69.3 65.6 71.8 590.9 678.2 745.8 808.4 851.9 134.0 157.5 185.3 209.9 227.4 130.9 153.9 180.7 204.4 220.9 12.7 13.1 12.3 11.8 15.9 23.2 26.9 27.4 28.6 30.4 32.1 39.1 46.6 52.6 57.5 86.6 99.7 107.7 122.6 112.7 118.5 139.6 156.0 170.7 178.2 52.5 68.8 85.0 89.8 111.1 131.3 133.5 125.4 122.2 118.6 1985 ...................................................... 1986 ...................................................... 1987 ...................................................... 1988 ...................................................... 1989 ...................................................... 1990 ...................................................... 1991 ...................................................... 1992 ...................................................... 1993 ...................................................... 1994 ...................................................... 1995 ...................................................... 1996 ...................................................... 1997 1 .................................................... 1998 1 .................................................... 1999 (estimates) ................................... 734.1 769.2 854.4 909.3 991.2 1,032.0 1,055.0 1,091.3 1,154.4 1,258.6 1,351.8 1,453.1 1,579.0 1,721.4 1,784.3 334.5 349.0 392.6 401.2 445.7 466.9 467.8 476.0 509.7 543.1 590.2 656.4 737.5 828.6 832.6 61.3 63.1 83.9 94.5 103.3 93.5 98.1 100.3 117.5 140.4 157.0 171.8 182.3 188.7 187.0 265.2 283.9 303.3 334.3 359.4 380.0 396.0 413.7 428.3 461.5 484.5 509.4 539.4 571.8 602.5 73.1 73.2 74.6 79.3 82.8 91.5 93.1 101.4 98.9 113.7 120.1 115.4 119.8 132.3 162.2 946.4 990.5 1,004.1 1,064.5 1,143.7 1,253.2 1,324.4 1,381.7 1,409.4 1,461.7 1,515.7 1,560.5 1,600.9 1,651.4 1,730.0 252.7 273.4 282.0 290.4 303.6 299.3 273.3 298.4 291.1 281.6 272.1 265.7 270.5 270.4 267.6 245.2 265.5 274.0 281.9 294.9 289.8 262.4 286.9 278.6 268.6 259.4 253.2 258.3 256.1 254.8 16.2 14.2 11.6 10.5 9.6 13.8 15.9 16.1 17.2 17.1 16.4 13.5 15.2 13.1 15.0 33.5 35.9 40.0 44.5 48.4 57.7 71.2 89.5 99.4 107.1 115.4 119.4 123.5 131.0 141.9 65.8 70.2 75.1 78.9 85.0 98.1 104.5 119.0 130.6 144.7 159.9 174.2 190.0 192.8 210.3 128.2 119.8 123.3 129.4 136.1 147.1 170.3 197.0 207.3 214.1 220.5 226.0 230.9 232.9 251.5 188.6 198.8 207.4 219.3 232.5 248.6 269.0 287.6 304.6 319.6 335.8 349.7 365.3 379.2 393.0 129.5 136.0 138.7 151.8 169.3 184.2 194.5 199.4 198.8 203.0 232.2 241.1 244.0 243.4 235.7 131.8 142.2 126.1 139.7 159.3 204.3 225.7 174.7 160.4 174.5 163.4 170.9 161.5 188.5 215.0 1 Data from Monthly Treasury Statement. NOTE.—Data for fiscal year 1999 are from the Mid-Session Review, Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 1999, issued May 26, 1998. Other data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1999, issued February 2, 1998. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the third quarter of 1998, according to advance estimates, Federal current expenditures fell $3.7 billion (annual rate); receipts data are incomplete. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Government receipts Period Total Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Federal Government current expenditures Contributions for social insurance Total Consumption expenditures Transfer payments Grantsin-aid to Net State interest and paid local governments Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Current surplus or deficit (¥), national income and product accounts Calendar year: 1991 .................................. 1992 .................................. 1993 ................................. 1994 ................................. 1995 ................................. 1996 ................................. 1997 ................................. 1,149.0 1,198.5 1,275.1 1,374.8 1,460.3 1,584.7 1,719.9 476.9 490.8 522.6 562.3 606.1 687.0 769.1 109.8 118.6 138.3 156.7 179.3 193.0 210.0 79.7 81.9 86.9 98.7 92.5 94.5 93.8 482.6 507.1 527.3 557.1 582.4 610.2 647.0 1,345.0 1,479.4 1,525.7 1,561.4 1,634.7 1,695.0 1,741.0 445.9 451.0 447.3 443.2 442.8 450.9 460.4 522.2 625.1 659.9 683.0 720.3 764.2 791.9 153.4 172.2 185.8 199.2 212.0 218.9 225.0 192.7 195.8 192.7 200.0 224.8 228.4 231.2 30.8 35.1 40.1 35.9 34.8 32.7 32.5 ¥0.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 ¥196.0 ¥280.9 ¥250.7 ¥186.7 ¥174.4 ¥110.3 ¥21.1 1994: III ............................. IV ............................. 1,383.8 1,409.5 561.6 571.1 163.4 173.2 99.3 99.0 559.5 566.2 1,571.4 1,596.4 450.5 440.8 683.8 700.7 199.6 206.6 202.8 210.8 34.8 37.5 .0 .0 ¥187.6 ¥186.8 1995: I ................................ II .............................. III ............................. IV ............................. 1,426.2 1,459.3 1,469.1 1,486.8 582.9 609.4 608.2 623.9 172.5 176.6 186.2 182.1 96.0 94.6 89.2 90.3 574.7 578.7 585.5 590.5 1,615.8 1,637.1 1,646.0 1,639.8 443.0 444.7 447.2 436.5 707.8 717.1 724.8 731.5 212.4 216.4 211.0 208.1 218.3 224.3 227.8 228.7 34.4 34.6 35.2 35.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 ¥189.6 ¥177.9 ¥176.9 ¥153.0 1996: I ................................ II .............................. III ............................. IV ............................. 1,529.9 1,581.7 1,593.7 1,633.5 652.6 691.4 693.8 710.0 191.2 195.2 194.3 191.4 89.9 88.5 90.5 109.2 596.2 606.7 615.0 622.9 1,680.0 1,694.4 1,693.8 1,711.9 445.7 453.1 452.9 451.8 757.8 757.9 762.5 778.6 214.3 223.8 219.0 218.4 227.7 226.1 228.6 231.1 34.4 33.5 30.8 32.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 ¥150.1 ¥112.6 ¥100.1 ¥78.3 1997: I ................................ II .............................. III ............................. IV ............................. 1,671.1 1,703.6 1,739.6 1,765.5 741.7 759.1 776.9 798.6 203.9 206.5 217.0 212.8 90.7 95.5 95.1 93.8 634.8 642.4 650.6 660.3 1,722.3 1,738.4 1,739.9 1,763.4 456.8 464.8 460.0 460.1 783.4 787.1 791.2 805.9 220.7 223.2 224.4 231.8 229.4 231.6 231.9 231.8 32.0 31.6 32.5 33.7 .0 .0 .0 .0 ¥51.2 ¥34.8 ¥.3 2.2 1998: I ................................ II ............................... III p ........................... 1,809.1 1,838.3 .............. 836.5 204.8 855.7 206.2 868.9 ............ 93.9 95.2 97.3 673.9 681.2 689.0 1,750.3 1,763.9 1,760.2 450.9 464.0 458.5 808.5 811.1 814.5 228.7 226.9 227.6 228.8 228.3 225.6 33.4 33.5 33.9 .0 58.8 .0 74.4 .0 .................... Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Industrial production (1992=100; seasonally adjusted) Period United States 1988 .......................................... 1989 .......................................... 1990 .......................................... 1991 .......................................... 1992 .......................................... 1993 .......................................... 1994 .......................................... 1995 .......................................... 1996 .......................................... 1997 p ........................................ 1997: Aug ................................ Sept ............................... Oct ................................. Nov ................................ Dec ................................ 1998: Jan ................................ Feb ................................ . Mar ................................ Apr ................................ May ............................... June .............................. July ............................... Aug ................................ Sept p ............................ 1 Data Canada 97.4 99.1 98.9 97.0 100.0 103.6 109.2 114.5 118.5 124.5 125.2 125.6 126.5 127.5 127.9 127.8 127.3 106.9 106.8 103.2 98.9 100.0 105.1 111.4 116.0 117.7 r 123.6 r 124.7 124.5 125.6 r 125.4 126.5 122.9 125.7 Japan 95.3 99.9 104.2 106.1 100.0 95.8 97.0 100.2 102.6 106.1 105.6 107.6 106.7 102.1 104.1 106.4 102.6 Germany France 97.3 100.9 102.4 101.2 100.0 96.2 100.0 102.0 102.3 106.3 108.2 107.6 109.6 107.8 109.8 108.9 109.7 Italy 90.3 94.6 99.5 102.4 100.0 r 92.3 r 95.7 r 96.8 r 97.1 r 100.5 r 100.5 r 100.3 r 102.0 r 102.0 r 103.1 r 104.3 r 104.2 99.1 103.0 102.2 101.3 100.0 97.9 104.0 110.3 107.2 109.8 111.8 110.1 111.5 111.9 r 111.8 112.8 111.7 Consumer prices (1982–84=100; NSA) United Kingdom United States 1 r 101.3 Canada Japan France Germany Italy United Kingdom 103.4 103.1 r 99.7 100.0 102.2 r 107.7 r 109.5 r 110.7 r 111.6 r 111.9 r 111.3 r 111.8 r 111.2 r 111.3 r 111.1 r 111.0 118.3 124.0 130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 160.8 161.2 161.6 161.5 161.3 161.6 161.9 123.2 129.3 135.5 143.1 145.2 147.9 148.2 151.4 153.7 156.2 156.7 156.5 156.7 156.5 156.2 157.3 157.5 105.6 108.1 111.4 115.0 116.9 118.4 119.3 119.1 119.3 121.3 121.6 122.5 122.8 122.0 121.8 121.6 121.5 124.2 128.6 133.0 137.2 140.6 143.5 145.9 148.4 151.5 153.2 153.3 153.6 153.6 153.9 153.9 153.3 153.9 106.3 109.2 112.2 116.3 122.1 127.6 131.1 133.5 135.5 137.8 138.7 138.3 138.2 138.2 138.4 138.4 138.8 141.1 150.4 159.5 169.8 178.8 186.3 193.6 204.0 212.0 215.7 215.7 216.1 216.7 217.3 217.3 218.0 218.6 125.6 135.4 148.2 156.9 162.7 165.3 169.3 175.2 179.4 185.1 186.2 187.2 187.4 187.5 188.0 187.4 188.3 128.0 r 127.6 100.3 111.2 r 105.7 110.6 r 111.7 128.4 126.6 98.9 110.6 r 104.6 110.4 r 112.9 128.8 r 126.2 97.2 111.4 105.7 113.2 r 111.7 r113.0 127.5 r 126.2 98.8 r 111.3 104.5 110.7 127.0 r 124.5 r 98.0 111.0 108.4 r 111.7 r 113.1 r 129.0 127.0 97.4 111.0 107.6 109.3 112.7 128.7 .............. ............ ............ ............ .............. .............. 162.2 162.5 162.8 163.0 163.2 163.4 163.6 157.6 157.5 158.1 158.2 158.2 158.2 157.9 122.0 122.2 122.6 122.1 121.4 121.3 122.2 154.1 154.5 154.7 154.8 154.1 154.4 154.5 138.6 138.9 139.4 139.5 139.8 139.7 139.4 218.6 219.0 219.4 219.6 219.6 219.8 220.0 188.9 191.0 192.1 192.0 191.5 192.3 193.2 relate to all urban consumers. Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and International Trade Administration, Office of Trade and Economic Analysis). U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES [Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Goods: Exports (f.a.s. value) Goods: Imports (customs value) Census basis (by end-use category) 1 Services (BOP basis) Balance of trade (exports minus imports) Census basis (by end-use category) BOP basis Period 1988 ................... 1989 ................... 1990 ................... 1991 ................... 1992 ................... 1993 ................... 1994 ................... 1995 ................... 1996 ................... 1997 ................... 1997: Aug ......... Sept ........ Oct ......... Nov ......... Dec ......... 1998: Jan ......... Feb ......... Mar ........ Apr ......... May ........ June ....... July r ...... Aug p ...... 1 Includes 2 Total BOP basis 320.2 362.1 389.3 416.9 440.4 456.8 502.4 575.8 612.0 679.3 57.1 57.7 58.5 57.5 58.3 57.9 56.4 57.2 55.3 54.7 54.8 53.8 53.7 Auto- ConIndusmo- sumer Foods, trial Capital tive goods Total, feeds, supgoods vehi- (nonCensus and plies except cles, food) basis 2 bevand auto- parts except erages mate- motive and autorials enmogines tive 322.4 363.8 393.6 421.7 448.2 465.1 512.6 584.7 625.1 689.2 58.1 58.5 59.5 58.2 58.8 58.5 57.2 58.1 56.0 55.5 55.7 54.8 55.0 32.3 37.2 35.1 35.7 40.3 40.6 42.0 50.5 55.5 51.5 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.6 85.1 99.3 104.4 109.7 109.1 111.8 121.4 146.2 147.7 158.2 13.4 13.1 13.3 13.1 13.1 13.0 12.6 12.9 12.5 12.6 12.1 11.9 12.1 109.2 138.8 152.7 166.7 175.9 181.7 205.0 233.0 252.9 294.5 24.9 25.4 25.6 24.9 25.8 25.5 24.8 24.9 23.8 23.8 24.4 24.8 23.9 29.3 34.8 37.4 40.0 47.0 52.4 57.8 61.8 65.0 74.0 6.2 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.1 6.5 6.4 6.6 6.5 6.0 5.6 4.7 5.6 undocumented exports to Canada through 1988. includes ‘‘other’’ exports or imports, not shown separately. 23.1 36.4 43.3 45.9 51.4 54.7 60.0 64.4 70.1 77.4 6.5 6.4 6.8 6.5 6.4 6.6 6.4 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.9 6.7 6.7 BOP basis 447.2 477.4 498.3 491.0 536.5 589.4 668.6 749.6 803.3 877.3 74.0 74.3 74.7 74.1 75.3 75.0 74.5 77.7 76.7 77.3 75.3 74.9 76.9 IndusAutoFoods, trial Capital motive Total, feeds, supgoods vehiCensus and plies except cles, basis 2 bevand auto- parts erages mate- motive and enrials gines 441.0 473.2 495.3 488.5 532.7 580.7 663.3 743.5 795.3 870.7 73.8 74.0 74.5 73.8 74.9 74.4 74.2 77.2 76.3 77.0 74.9 74.5 76.2 24.8 25.1 26.6 26.5 27.6 27.9 31.0 33.2 35.7 39.7 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.3 118.3 132.3 143.2 131.6 138.6 145.6 162.1 181.8 204.5 213.8 18.1 18.0 18.2 18.1 17.2 17.3 16.8 16.7 17.3 17.4 16.6 16.6 16.9 101.4 113.3 116.4 120.7 134.3 152.4 184.4 221.4 229.1 254.2 21.8 21.8 22.2 21.5 22.4 21.9 22.2 23.1 22.3 23.1 22.2 22.3 22.3 87.7 86.1 87.3 85.7 91.8 102.4 118.3 123.8 128.9 140.8 11.7 11.8 11.6 11.7 11.9 11.8 12.2 13.0 12.2 12.5 11.8 10.7 12.3 Consumer goods (nonfood) except automotive 95.9 102.9 105.7 108.0 122.7 134.0 146.3 159.9 171.0 192.9 16.2 16.6 16.5 16.8 17.3 17.2 16.9 18.2 18.3 17.9 18.2 18.3 18.0 Exports Imports Goods, Census basis Goods 111.1 127.2 147.9 164.3 177.0 186.4 201.4 219.8 238.8 258.3 22.0 22.0 22.1 21.6 21.4 21.8 21.5 21.8 22.2 21.7 21.6 21.3 21.1 100.0 104.2 120.0 121.2 119.6 125.7 136.2 146.0 156.0 170.5 14.4 14.7 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.6 15.0 14.8 15.0 14.9 14.7 14.8 14.7 ¥118.5 ¥109.4 ¥101.7 ¥66.7 ¥84.5 ¥115.6 ¥150.6 ¥158.8 ¥170.2 ¥181.5 ¥15.6 ¥15.5 ¥15.0 ¥15.7 ¥16.0 ¥15.9 ¥17.1 ¥19.1 ¥20.4 ¥21.5 ¥19.3 ¥19.7 ¥21.2 ¥127.0 ¥115.2 ¥109.0 ¥74.1 ¥96.1 ¥132.6 ¥166.2 ¥173.7 ¥191.3 ¥198.0 ¥16.9 ¥16.5 ¥16.3 ¥16.6 ¥17.0 ¥17.1 ¥18.1 ¥20.5 ¥21.3 ¥22.6 ¥20.5 ¥21.0 ¥23.2 Services 11.1 23.0 27.9 43.1 57.4 60.7 65.3 73.8 82.8 87.7 7.6 7.3 7.6 7.0 6.8 7.2 6.5 7.0 7.2 6.8 6.9 6.5 6.4 Goods and services ¥115.9 ¥92.2 ¥81.1 ¥30.9 ¥38.7 ¥71.9 ¥100.9 ¥99.9 ¥108.6 ¥110.2 ¥9.3 ¥9.2 ¥8.7 ¥9.6 ¥10.2 ¥9.9 ¥11.6 ¥13.5 ¥14.1 ¥15.8 ¥13.6 ¥14.5 ¥16.8 NOTE.—BOP refers to balance of payments on international transactions basis. BOP data shown here are consistent with figures shown on pp. 36 and 37. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis). 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the second quarter of 1998, the goods deficit rose to $64.8 billion, from $55.7 billion in the first quarter. The current account deficit rose to $56.5 billion in the second quarter, from $46.7 billion in the first quarter. [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted. Credits (+), debits (¥)] Goods 1 Period Exports 1988 ............ 1989 ............ 1990 ............ 1991 ............ 1992 ............ 1993 ............ 1994 ............ 1995 ............ 1996 ............ 1997 ............ 1995: III .... IV .... 1996: I ....... II ..... III .... IV .... 1997: I ....... II ..... III .... IV .... 1998: I ....... II p .... 1 Adjusted 320,230 362,120 389,307 416,913 440,352 456,832 502,398 575,845 611,983 679,325 145,909 148,817 150,855 152,130 151,253 157,745 163,499 169,240 172,302 174,284 171,469 164,666 Services Imports Net balance ¥447,189 ¥477,365 ¥498,337 ¥490,981 ¥536,458 ¥589,441 ¥668,590 ¥749,574 ¥803,320 ¥877,279 ¥188,077 ¥187,865 ¥193,467 ¥200,965 ¥202,806 ¥206,082 ¥213,222 ¥218,336 ¥221,598 ¥224,123 ¥227,167 ¥229,497 ¥126,959 ¥115,245 ¥109,030 ¥74,068 ¥96,106 ¥132,609 ¥166,192 ¥173,729 ¥191,337 ¥197,954 ¥42,168 ¥39,048 ¥42,612 ¥48,835 ¥51,553 ¥48,337 ¥49,723 ¥49,096 ¥49,296 ¥49,839 ¥55,698 ¥64,831 Net military transactions 2 3 ¥6,320 ¥6,749 ¥7,599 ¥5,274 ¥1,448 1,269 2,495 4,769 4,684 6,781 1,518 1,222 748 993 1,105 1,838 1,542 2,191 1,945 1,103 1,527 1,036 Net travel and transportation receipts ¥3,013 3,551 7,501 16,561 19,969 19,714 16,305 21,772 24,969 22,670 6,064 6,781 5,769 6,548 4,345 8,307 5,944 5,711 5,414 5,600 4,416 4,394 Investment income Other services, net 20,435 26,245 27,999 31,851 38,899 39,686 46,479 47,297 53,110 58,297 12,086 12,416 12,994 13,090 13,025 14,001 14,107 14,679 14,832 14,677 14,748 15,448 from Census data for differences in timing and coverage; excludes military. under U.S. military agency sales contracts (exports) minus direct defense expenditures (imports). 2 Transfers 36 Balance on goods and services ¥115,856 ¥92,197 ¥81,129 ¥30,931 ¥38,685 ¥71,939 ¥100,913 ¥99,891 ¥108,574 ¥110,206 ¥22,500 ¥18,629 ¥23,101 ¥28,204 ¥33,078 ¥24,191 ¥28,130 ¥26,515 ¥27,105 ¥28,459 ¥35,007 ¥43,953 3 Quarterly Receipts on U.S. assets abroad 129,366 153,659 163,324 141,408 125,003 126,702 157,742 203,844 213,196 241,787 50,772 52,445 51,997 51,801 53,058 56,340 57,581 61,271 62,551 60,384 62,522 62,458 Payments on foreign assets in U.S. ¥115,722 ¥138,639 ¥139,149 ¥119,891 ¥102,462 ¥102,754 ¥141,263 ¥184,569 ¥198,960 ¥247,105 ¥48,212 ¥46,763 ¥46,638 ¥47,826 ¥51,327 ¥53,168 ¥57,567 ¥60,811 ¥64,095 ¥64,631 ¥64,770 ¥65,696 Net Balance on goods, Unilateral services, transfers, and net 4 income 13,644 ¥102,212 ¥25,988 15,020 ¥77,177 ¥26,963 24,174 ¥56,955 ¥34,669 21,517 ¥9,414 5,032 22,541 ¥16,144 ¥35,230 23,948 ¥47,991 ¥38,142 16,479 ¥84,434 ¥39,391 19,275 ¥80,616 ¥34,638 14,236 ¥94,338 ¥40,577 ¥5,318 ¥115,524 ¥39,691 2,560 ¥19,940 ¥8,938 5,682 ¥12,947 ¥8,967 5,359 ¥17,742 ¥10,473 3,975 ¥24,229 ¥8,777 1,731 ¥31,347 ¥9,043 3,172 ¥21,019 ¥12,284 14 ¥28,116 ¥8,874 460 ¥26,055 ¥9,035 ¥1,544 ¥28,649 ¥9,445 ¥4,247 ¥32,706 ¥12,337 ¥2,248 ¥37,255 ¥9,480 ¥3,238 ¥47,191 ¥9,334 data are not seasonally adjusted. transfers of goods and services under U.S. military grant programs. See p. 37 for continuation of table. 4 Includes Balance on current account ¥128,201 ¥104,139 ¥91,624 ¥4,383 ¥51,374 ¥86,133 ¥123,825 ¥115,254 ¥134,915 ¥155,215 ¥28,878 ¥21,914 ¥28,215 ¥33,006 ¥40,390 ¥33,303 ¥36,990 ¥35,090 ¥38,094 ¥45,043 ¥46,735 ¥56,525 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, U.S. claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $25.0 billion in the second quarter, following a decrease of $3.1 billion in the first quarter. U.S. liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, increased $40.9 billion in the second quarter, following a decrease of $50.5 billion in the first quarter. [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] U.S. assets abroad, net [increase/capital outflow (¥)] Period Total 1988 ........... 1989 ........... 1990 ........... 1991 ........... 1992 ........... 1993 ........... 1994 .......... 1995 .......... 1996 .......... 1997 .......... 1995: III .. IV ... 1996: I ..... II .... III .. IV ... 1997: I ..... II .... III .. IV ... 1998: I ...... II p .. U.S. official reserve assets 3 5 ¥100,221 ¥3,912 ¥168,744 ¥25,293 ¥74,011 ¥2,158 ¥57,881 5,763 ¥68,774 3,901 ¥194,537 ¥1,379 ¥171,102 5,346 ¥327,453 ¥9,742 ¥368,801 6,668 ¥478,502 ¥1,010 ¥40,903 ¥1,893 ¥111,020 191 ¥69,695 17 ¥60,623 ¥523 ¥83,101 7,489 ¥155,381 ¥315 ¥145,139 4,480 ¥86,606 ¥236 ¥123,317 ¥730 ¥123,441 ¥4,524 ¥45,648 ¥444 ¥97,490 ¥1,945 Other U.S. Government assets 3 2,967 1,259 2,307 2,911 ¥1,657 ¥342 ¥389 ¥589 ¥708 174 252 ¥458 ¥210 ¥377 163 ¥284 ¥22 ¥269 436 29 ¥388 ¥496 Foreign assets in the U.S., net [increase/capital inflow (+)] U.S. private assets ¥99,275 ¥144,710 ¥74,160 ¥66,555 ¥71,018 ¥192,817 ¥176,059 ¥317,122 ¥374,761 ¥477,666 ¥39,262 ¥110,753 ¥69,502 ¥59,723 ¥90,753 ¥154,782 ¥149,597 ¥86,101 ¥123,023 ¥118,946 ¥44,816 ¥95,049 Total Foreign official assets 3 246,065 39,758 224,390 8,503 140,992 33,910 109,641 17,389 168,776 40,477 279,671 71,753 304,460 39,583 465,449 109,768 563,357 127,344 733,441 15,817 124,329 39,356 109,169 11,500 90,534 51,833 109,122 13,601 149,361 23,432 214,339 38,478 181,735 26,949 149,773 ¥5,411 181,438 21,258 220,491 ¥26,979 95,529 11,324 163,425 ¥10,483 5 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDRs), foreign currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the IMF. Other foreign assets Statistical discrepancy Allocations of special Total (sum Of which: drawing of the items Seasonal rights with sign adjustment (SDRs) reversed) discrepancy 206,307 215,887 107,082 92,253 128,299 207,918 264,877 355,681 436,013 717,624 84,973 97,669 38,701 95,521 125,929 175,861 154,786 155,184 160,180 247,470 84,205 173,908 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ¥17,644 48,494 24,643 ¥47,378 ¥48,628 999 ¥9,533 ¥22,742 ¥59,641 ¥99,724 ¥54,548 23,765 7,376 ¥15,493 ¥25,870 ¥25,655 394 ¥28,077 ¥20,027 ¥52,007 ¥3,146 ¥9,410 .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. ¥7,559 2,463 4,928 116 ¥8,779 3,734 5,812 685 ¥10,018 3,528 6,217 1,562 U.S. official reserve assets, net 5 (unadjusted, end of period) 47,802 74,609 83,316 77,721 71,323 73,442 74,335 85,832 75,089 69,954 87,152 85,832 84,212 83,455 75,509 75,089 67,222 67,813 67,148 69,954 69,353 71,161 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents Page TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Gross Domestic Product .......................................................................................................................................................................................... Real Gross Domestic Product .................................................................................................................................................................................. Implicit Price Deflators for Gross Domestic Product .............................................................................................................................................. Gross Domestic Product and Related Price Measures: Indexes and Percent Changes .............................................................................................. Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits ................................................................................................................................ National Income ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... Real Personal Consumption Expenditures ............................................................................................................................................................... Sources of Personal Income ...................................................................................................................................................................................... Disposition of Personal Income ............................................................................................................................................................................... Farm Income ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ Corporate Profits ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... Real Gross Private Domestic Investment ................................................................................................................................................................ Real Private Fixed Investment by Type .................................................................................................................................................................. Business Investment ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force ......................................................................................................................................................................................... Selected Unemployment Rates ................................................................................................................................................................................ Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs ...................................................................................................... Nonagricultural Employment .................................................................................................................................................................................. Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries ................................................................. Employment Cost Index—Private Industry ............................................................................................................................................................. Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector ...................................................................................................................................................... 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization ....................................................................................................................................................... Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures .............................................................................................................. New Construction .................................................................................................................................................................................................... New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates ............................................................................................................................................................... Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade ..................................................................................................................................... Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders ................................................................................................................................................. 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers ................................................................................................................................................................ Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods ...................................................................................................................................................... Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers ............................................................................................................................................. Prices Received and Paid by Farmers ...................................................................................................................................................................... 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures .................................................................................................................................................... Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets ...................................................................................................................................................... Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base ................................................................................................................................................................... Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks .................................................................................................................................................................... Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business .................................................................................................................. Consumer Credit ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... Interest Rates and Bond Yields ............................................................................................................................................................................... Common Stock Prices and Yields ............................................................................................................................................................................ 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt ....................................................................................................................................................................... Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function .............................................................................................................................................. Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis ..................................................................................................................................................... 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries ............................................................................................................... U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services ...................................................................................................................................................... U.S. International Transactions ................................................................................................................................................................................ 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: p Preliminary. r Revised. c Corrected. … Not available (also, not applicable). NSA not seasonally adjusted. 38 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Price $3.00 (single copy) ($3.75 foreign). Subscription price: $33.00 per year; $41.25 for foreign mailing. U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1998 51–969
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