Full text of Economic Indicators : October 1968
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90th Congress, 2nd Session 1-tUbKAL RESERVE BANK OF CHICAGO Economic Indicators October 1968 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1968 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) WILLIAM PROXMIRE, Wisconsin, Chairman WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas, Vice Chairman SENATE JOHN SPARKMAN (Alabama) J. W. FULBRIGHT (Arkansas) HERMAN E. TALMADGE (Georgia) STUART SYMINGTON (Missouri) ABRAHAM RIBICOFF (Connecticut) JACOB K. JAVITS (New York) JACK MILLER (Iowa) LEN B. JORDAN (Idaho) CHARLES H. PERCY (Illinois) HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES RICHARD BOLLING (Missouri) HALE BOGGS (Louisiana) HENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin) MARTHA W. GRIFFITHS (Michigan) WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD (Pennsylvania) THOMAS B. CURTIS (Missouri) WILLIAM B. WIDNALL (New Jersey) DONALD RUMSFELD (Illinois) W. E. BROCK 3d (Tennessee) JOHN R. STARK, Executive "Director JAMES W. KNOWLES, Director of Research COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS ARTHUR M. OKUN, Chairman MERTON J. PECK WARREN L. SMITH Economic Indicators prepared under supervision of FRANCES M. JAMES [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S J- Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at 2 5 cents a single copy or by subscription at $3.00 per year (foreign, $4.00) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C 20402 Subscribers who wish to receive it at an earlier date after release may take advantage of provisions for airmail subscriptions. The domestic airmail subscription price is $6.10 additional per year. The 1967 revised edition of the Historical and Descriptive Supplement to Economic Indicators, which describes each series and gives annual data for years not shown in the monthly issues, is available at 70 cents a copy from the Superintendent of Documents, Government Printing Office. ii TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING THE NATION'S INCOME, EXPENDITURE, AND SAVING Preliminary estimates indicate that gross national product advanced almost $18 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter, somewhat less than the record increase of nearly $21% billion in the second quarter. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Government Persons Period Total1 350. 0 364 4 385. 3 404. 6 438. 1 473. 2 511. 6 546.3 534. 2 541. 5 550. 0 . 559. 6 1968: I ____ 574. 4 586.3 592. 6 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1967: I PerLess: Equals: Personal sonal Less: Less: Tax Interest Total consump- saving Trans- Equals: Total Trans- Equals: Puror and tion paid and excludfers, fers, nontax interest, chases expend- interest, Net disexpending transfer of goods itures receipts interest itures saving receipts payand and and or and ments subsubaccruals sidies 2 2 transto forsidies fers eigners 7.8 8. 1 8. 6 9. 7 10. 7 12. 0 13. 1 13.9 13.7 14. 3 14. 0 14. 0 14. 1 14.4 14.5 342. 3 356. 3 376. 6 394, 9 427.4 461.3 498.4 532. 4 520.5 527.2 536. 0 545.6 560. 3 571.9 578. 1 325. 2 335. 2 355. 1 375.0 401.2 432.8 465. 5 492.2 480.9 490.3 495.5 502.2 519.4 527.9 541.3 17.0 21. 2 21. 6 19. 9 26. 2 28. 4 32. 9 40. 2 39. 7 37. 0 40. 5 43. 4 40. 8 44.0 36. 8 139.8 144. 6 157. 0 168. 8 174. 1 189. 1 213. 2 227. 4 222.3 223.6 229. 0 234.9 246. 7 254.3 36. 5 41. 3 42. 8 44. 4 46. 7 49. 9 55. 3 62. 9 62. 1 62. 1 63.4 63.9 66. 3 69.9 71.7 103. 3 103. 3 114. 2 124. 3 127. 3 139. 2 157.9 164. 6 160.2 161. 5 165.6 171.0 180.4 184.4 136. 1 149. 0 159. 9 166. 9 175.4 186. 9 211. 5 241.3 235.2 239.5 243.0 247.4 256. 9 265.5 27L 3 36. 5 41. 3 42. 8 44. 4 46.7 49. 9 55. 3 62.9 62. 1 62. 1 63. 4 63. 9 66. 3 69.9 71.7 99. 6 107. 6 117. 1 122. 5 128. 7 137. 0 156.2 178.4 173.1 177.3 179.6 183.5 190. 5 195.7 199.5 Net Net exports of goods Total Statisand services transfers Excess of j income tical Gross or Gross private Excess to fortransfers discrepretained domestic of eigners or receipts ancy earn-3 invest- by perof net investEquals: ment sons and Exports Less: ings exports ment 4 Net GovernImports exports ment 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1967: I__ II_ 1968: I ni~»L 1 56.8 58.7 66. 3 68. 8 76. 2 84. 7 91. 6 93. 1 91. 3 91. 8 93.5 95.9 92. 7 97.3 748 71.7 83. 0 87. 1 94. 0 108. 1 120.8 114 3 113. 0 107.6 114. 7 121.8 119.7 127.3 127. 4 -18. 0 -13. 0 -16. 8 -18. 4 -17.8 -23. 4 -29. 2 -21. 1 -21.7 -15. 8 -21. 2 -25. 9 -27.0 -30.0 2. 4 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2. 9 3. 1 2. 9 3. 4 3. 4 2. 6 2. 6 2.8 2.9 27. 2 28.6 30.3 32. 3 37. 1 39. 2 43. 1 45. 8 45. 5 45. 5 46.1 46. 0 47.5 49.9 50. 8 Personal income (p. 5) less personal tax and nontax payments (fines, penalties, 2 etc.). Government transfer payments to persons, foreign net transfers by Government, net interest paid by Government, and subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises. s Undistributed corporate profits, corporate inventory valuation adjustment, capital consumption allowances, and wage accruals less disbursements. Does not include retained earnings of unincorporated business, which are included in disposable personal income. Surplus or deficit (-), income and product accounts 3. 7 -4.3 -2.9 1.8 -1.4 2.2 1.7 -13. 8 -12. 9 -15.9 -14. 0 -12. 5 -10. 3 -11.3 International Business Period Expenditures Net receipts Disposable personal income 4 23. 2 23.0 25. 1 26. 4 28.6 32. 3 38. 1 41. 0 40. 3 40.4 40.6 42. 6 46. 0 47.9 48. 2 40 5. 6 5. 1 5. 9 8.5 6. 9 5. 1 4. 8 5. 2 5. 1 5. 4 3. 4 1. 5 2.0 2. 6 -1.7 -3. 0 -2. 5 -3. 1 -5.7 -4 1 -2. 2 -1. 7 -2. 3 -1.6 -2. 1 -.8 1. 1 .8 .3 5048 520. 8 559. 8 590. 8 633.7 688. 0 750. 9 793. 2 774 9 783. 9 798. 5 815. 1 836. 0 856.4 — 1. 0 -. 8 .5 -. 3 -1. 3 -3. 1 -3.3 -3.5 -2.8 -3.8 -3.4 -4 2 -4 7 -3.6 Gross national product or expenditure 503. 7 520. 1 560. 3 590.5 632.4 684 9 747.6 789.7 772.2 780.2 795. 3 811. 0 831. 2 852.9 870. S Private business investment, purchases of capital goods by private nonprofit institutions, and residential housing. 6 Net foreign investment with sign changed. NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960. Source: Department of Commerce. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OR EXPENDITURE Gross national product (seasonally adjusted) advanced at an annual rate of 8% percent in the third quarter, accordii to preliminary estimates. Nearly three-fifths of the increase represented a rise in physical output and the rest higher prices. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 900 900 800 800 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT 700 700 600 600. 500 500 400 400 GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES 200 200 100 100 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT NET EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES \ I J/ 1 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 .I/PRELIMINARY. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF CO/AMERCE 1957 1958 . 1959 _ 1960 1961 1962 1963_ _ 1964 1965 1966 1967 1967: I II III. IV 1968: I II III* COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total Personal Gross congross Total private sump- domestic national gross product national tion investin 1958 product expend- ment prices itures Billions of dollars; quarterly Period . .._ 452.5 447.3 475.9 487.7 497. 2 629.8 551. 0 581. 1 617.8 657.1 678. 1 665. 7 669.2 675. 6 681.8 692. 7 70S. 4 712. 0 441. 1 447.3 483.7 503.7 520. 1 560. 3 590. 5 632.4 684. 9 747.6 789.7 772. 2 780. 2 795. 3 811. 0 831. 2 852.9 870.8 281. 4 290. 1 311. 2 325.2 335. 2 355. 1 375. 0 401. 2 432.8 465. 5 492. 2 480. 9 490. 3 495. 5 502.2 519. 4 527.9 541. 3 67. 8 60. 9 75.3 74.8 71.7 83. 0 87. 1 94. 0 108. 1 120. 8 114 3 113. 0 107.6 114,7 121. 8 119. 7 127.3 127. 4 1 This category corresponds closely with budget expenditures for national defense, shown on p. 36. 2 Gross national product in current prices divided by gross national product in 1958 prices. 1968 1967 Net exports of goods and services Government purchases of goods and services Federal State Total and National Total defense1 Other local Implicit price deflator for total GNP, 1958= 1002 data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 5.7 2. 2 .1 40 5.6 5. 1 5.9 8.5 6.9 5. 1 48 5.2 5. 1 5. 4 3.4 1. 5 2.0 2. 6 86. 1 94 2 97. 0 99. 6 107.6 117. 1 122.5 128.7 137.0 156. 2 178.4 173. 1 177. 3 179.6 183. 5 190. 5 195.7 199.5 49. 5 53. 6 53.7 53. 5 57.4 63.4 64 2 65. 2 66.9 77.4 90. 6 87. 4 90.0 91.3 93.5 97. 1 100. 0 101. 1 44 2 45. 9 46. 0 44 9 47.8 51. 6 50. 8 50. 0 50. 1 60.6 72.4 70. 0 72. 1 72.9 74.6 76.8 79.0 79.7 5.3 7. 7 7.6 8.6 9.6 11.8 13. 5 15. 2 16.8 16.8 18. 2 17.4 17. 9 18.4 19.0 20.3 21.0 21. 4 36. 6 40. 6 43.3 46. 1 50. 2 53. 7 58. 2 63.5 70.1 78.8 87.8 85.8 87.2 88.4 90.0 93.4 95.6 98. 4 NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960. Source: Department of Commerce. 97. 5 100. 0 101.6 103. 3 1046 105. 8 107. 2 108.8 110.9 113. 8 117. 3 116. 0 116. 6 117. 7 118.9 120.0 121.2 122.3 TATIONAL INCOME According to preliminary estimates, employee compensation increased a strong $12% billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter. Gains were also reported for other types of noncorporate income, particularly proprietors' income and net interest. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 700 700 600 600 TOTAL NATIONAL INCOME 500 500 COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES 400 400 CORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT 300 PROPRIETORS' AND ' RENTAL INCOME 100 300 100 NET INTEREST 1962 1963 1965 1964 1968 1967 1966 J/PRELIMINARY SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Total national income Period 1958 1959__ 1960_ 1961 _ _ __ 1962 _ 1963 1964 1965 _ 1966 _ 1967 1967: I__ II III__ IV__ 1968: I II __ _ ._ _ -__ III "____ 367. 8 400. 0 414. 5 427. 3 457.7 481. 9 518. 1 564.3 620.8 652.9 638.6 645. 1 656.9 670.9 688. 1 705. 4 Compensation of em- 1 ployees 257. 8 279. 1 294. 2 302. 6 323. 6 341. 0 365.7 393.8 435.6 468.2 456.7 461.8 471.5 482.7 496.8 507. 1 519. 5 Proprietors' income Farm 2 13.4 11.4 12.0 12. 8 13.0 13. 1 12.1 14.8 15.9 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.6 14.3 14.6 14.8 15. 4 Business and professional Rental income of persons 33. 2 35. 1 34. 2 35. 6 37. 1 37. 9 40.2 42.4 44.8 46.3 45.7 46. 1 46.6 46.8 47.2 47.8 48. 0 15. 4 15. 6 15. 8 16. 0 16. 7 17. 1 18.0 19.0 19.8 20.3 20. 1 20.2 20.4 20.5 20.7 20.9 21. 0 Net interest 6. 8 7. 1 8. 4 10. 0 11. 6 13. 8 15.8 18.2 20.8 23.3 22.2 22.9 23.6 24.3 25.0 25.8 26. 7 Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment 3 Total 41. 1 51.7 49. 9 50. 3 55.7 58. 9 66.3 76. 1 83.9 80.4 79.5 79.6 80.2 82.3 83.8 89. 2 Profits Inventory before valuation taxes 3 adjustment 41. 4 52. 1 49. 7 50. 3 55.4 59. 4 66.8 77.8 85.6 81.6 79.9 80.3 80.8 85.4 88.9 91.8 3 See Note, p. 7. NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960. Source: Department of Commerce. 0 3 -. 5 .2 i .3 5 -.5 -1.7 -1.7 -1.2 __>4 -.7 -.6 -3.1 -5.1 -2.7 -1. 1 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose strongly again in September with an advance of $4% billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate). Wages and salaries and other labor income accounted for $3% billion of the gain. Most other sources of income also increased. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 700 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 700 600 100 100 1962 1968 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Total personal income 1959 1960 _ _ 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 ___ J 1967 1967: A u g _ _ _ Sept.__ Oct Nov___ Dec 1968: Jan Feb Mar Apr MayJune July____ Aug — Sept *>__ 383.5 401.0 416.8 442.6 465. 5 497. 5 538.9 586.8 628. 8 634.2 637.0 638.0 644.9 652. 6 654.9 663.0 670.0 672.6 678.2 683. 7 689.2 694.1 698. 6 1 [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Wage Rental Transfer Other Proprietors' income income and Divi- Personal salary labor 2 Business interest payof dends and pro- persons disburse- income Farm income ments ments * fessional 258.2 11. 4 15.6 20.7 26. 6 11.3 35. 1 12.6 12.0 34.2 12.0 23.4 28.5 270.8 15. 8 13. 4 12.7 12.8 32.4 278. 1 35. 6 13. 8 25.0 16. 0 33.3 13.9 13. 0 37. 1 296. 1 16. 7 15. 2 27.7 37. 9 311. 1 14 9 13. 1 17. I 16. 5 31. 4 35. 3 12. 1 36. 7 333. 7 16. 6 40. 2 34. 9 18. 0 17. 8 42. 4 358.9 18.7 38.7 39.9 14.8 19.0 19.8 43.9 394.6 15.9 21.7 20.8 44.8 43. 1 19.8 423.4 51.7 23.3 14. 4 46. 3 20. 3 22.9 46. 8 52.2 47.2 426.6 23.7 20.4 14.6 46.6 23.5 51.9 23.9 14.8 46.7 23.4 428.8 20.4 47.6 14.2 23.2 52.6 429.6 24.0 20.5 48.0 46.5 435.4 24.2 53.0 14.3 46.8 23. 1 48.5 20.5 444.2 53.2 21.1 24.4 14.3 49.0 47.0 20.6 24.7 14.4 47.1 443.0 23.2 49.4 54.5 20.6 449.7 47.2 54.9 14.6 20.7 25.0 23.6 49.8 452.2 25.2 50.2 14.8 20.7 57.8 23.9 47.5 453.2 25.5 14.8 24.3 50.8 58. 1 47.6 20.8 58.2 25.7 457.5 14.8 24.7 47.8 20.9 51.3 462. 2 26.0 58.5 14.8 47.9 20. 9 24. 3 51.9 465.4 26. 3 15. 1 59. 1 52.4 48. 0 21. 0 25. 0 59.6 468.7 25.2 15.4 21.0 26.5 52.9 48.0 21. 1 471. 8 15.7 53.4 26. 8 59. 9 48.0 25.3 Compensation of employees (see p. 3) excluding employer contributions for social insurance and wage accruals less disbursements. 3 Employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; compensation for injuries; directors' fees; military reserve pay; and a few other minor items. 4 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 3 Less: Personal con- Nonagritributions cultural for social personal3 insurance income 368.5 7.9 385.2 9.3 400.0 9.6 10.3 425.5 11. 8 12. 5 13.4 17.8 20.4 20.6 20.5 20.7 20.9 21.2 22. 1 22.4 22.4 22.6 22.8 22.9 23. 1 23.2 23. 4 448. 1 480. 9 519.5 566. 1 609.3 614.4 617.1 618.8 625.4 633.0 635. 1 643.1 649.9 652.4 658.0 663.4 668. 7 673.3 677.5 Personal income exclusive of net income of unincorporated farm enterprises, farm wages, agricultural net interest, and net dividends paid by agricultural corporations. NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960. Source: Department of Commerce. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Preliminary estimates for the third quarter show a $16 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) gain in personal income. Reflecting the tax surcharge, the increase in disposable income was held to a more modest $61/3 billion. With personal outlays up a sharp $1 31A billion, the saving rate dropped to 6.2 percent from 7.5 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 600 550 2,000 2,000 1,800 1,800 1962 1968 J/PRELIMINARY. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE Period Less: PerPersonal sonal tax and income nontax payments COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Less: Personal outlays Equals: Personal consumption Equals: Disexpenditures 2 Personal posable Total saving personal personall Durable Nonincome outlays Services goods durable goods 1959 1960__ _ _ _ 1961 . 1962__ _ _ 1963 _ 1964 1965__ __ 1966 _ 1967 383.5 401.0 416.8 442.6 465. 5 497.5 538.9 586.8 628.8 46.2 50.9 52.4 57.4 60. 9 59. 4 65.7 75.3 82.5 337.3 350.0 364.4 385.3 404 6 438. 1 473.2 511.6 546.3 I... IIIIIIV__ 1968: !___ II— III". 614.8 621.6 633.7 645.2 662.7 678.1 694. 0 80.5 80. 1 83.6 85.6 88.3 91.9 101. 4 534.2 541. 5 550. 0 559. 6 574. 4 586. 3 592. 6 1967: Billions of dollars 318.3 44.3 146.6 120.3 333. 0 45.3 151.3 128.7 44.2 343. 3 135. 1 155.9 143.0 363.7 49.5 162.6 152. 4 168. 6 384. 7 53. 9 163. 3 411.9 59. 2 178. 7 191. 1 66.3 175.5 444.8 206.7 70.5 188.3 478.6 72. 6 203. 8 215. 8 506. 2 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 212. 9 494. 6 198. 2 69.8 73.4 215. 3 504. 5 201. 6 216.4 205. 9 73.1 509. 5 74.2 218.4 209. 6 516. 1 213.9 226. 5 79.0 533. 5 542. 3 228. 2 218. 7 81.0 232. 7 223. 3 555. 8 85. 3 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers, and personal transfer payments to foreigners. 2 See p. 2 for total personal consumption expenditures. s Includes armed forces abroad. Annual data are for July 1; quarterly data are for middle of period, interpolated from monthly data. Per capita disposable personal income Current prices 1958 prices Saving as percent of Population disposable (thou-3 personal sands) income (percent) 19. 1 17.0 21.2 21.6 19. 9 26. 2 28.4 32.9 40.2 Dollars 1,905 1,881 1,883 1,937 1,983 1,909 2,064 1, 968 2,136 2,013 2, 280 2, 123 2, 432 2, 235 2, 332 2, 598 2, 744 2, 401 5.6 4.9 5.8 5.6 4. 9 6. 0 6.0 6.4 7.4 177, 073 180, 684 183, 756 186, 656 189,417 192, 120 194, 592 196, 920 199, 118 39.7 37.0 40.5 43.4 40.8 44.0 36.8 2, 693 2, 723 2,758 2,798 2,866 2, 918 2,941 7.4 6.8 7.4 7.8 7.1 7.5 6. 2 198, 198, 199, 200, 200, 200, 201, 2,379 2,395 2,404 2,418 2,454 2,474 2,478 NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960. Source: Department of Commerce. 356 852 425 006 433 911 462 FARM INCOME According to preliminary estimates, net farm income (excluding and including inventory change), seasonally adjusted, rose about 4 percent in the third quarter. B1LL1ONS OF DOLLARS 60 BILLIONS OF DOLL«vRS 60 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 50 / A -S REALIZED GROSS FARM INCOME * Ml n " 50 «*»-^^ 40 40 30 30 •NET FARM INCOME INC1UDING NET INVENTCDRY CHANGE 20 20 —, ->-*J 10 10 \ 0 \ \ \ 1962 1 I 1 I 1 1 1964 1963 I 1 1965 From all sources Period 1968: I II... III ___ 1 18. 1 18.7 19.7 20.4 20.6 20.6 23.6 24.8 23.7 __ From From farm nonfarm sources sources 7.0 7.2 7.5 8.2 8.5 9.3 10.0 10.5 10.7 11. 0 11.5 12.2 12.3 12.1 11.3 13.5 14.3 13.0 i | _ _ 1 ! I 1967 1 1 0 1968 Net to farm operators Net income per farm including net inventory change 3 ProducCash tion ex- Exclud- Includreceipts penses ing net in- ing net in- Current 1967 Total * from ventory ventory2 prices prices 4 marketchange change ings Billions of dollars Dollars 37. 5 3, 106 2(5. 1 2, 795 33. 5 11. 4 11. 5 12. 1 38. 1 34.2 11.7 3, 049 3, 388 26.4 39.8 3,735 27. 1 3, 399 35. 1 13. 0 12. 6 41.3 13.2 3,898 36.4 28.6 3, 586 12.6 42.3 37.4 29.7 13.2 3, 987 3, 708 12. 6 42.6 3,832 37.2 3, 564 13. 1 29.5 12. 3 44.9 4, 487 39.3 30.9 15. 0 4, 723 14.0 49.6 43.2 16.2 4, 967 16. 1 5, 068 33.4 49. 1 14.2 4, 654 14. 6 4, 654 34.8 42.8 Seasonal/it/ adjusted annual rates 48.9 34.4 14. 6 4, 640 4, 690 42.5 14. 5 14. 7 49.3 14.4 43.0 34.9 4, 670 4, 670 49.2 14.2 43.0 35. 0 14.8 4, 700 4, 650 48.9 42.7 13.9 14.5 4, 610 4, 560 35.0 43.2 49.8 35.4 14.4 4,840 4, 750 14.8 50.7 15. 1 4, 940 4, 750 35.9 14.8 44.0 4, 890 51. 6 44. 9 5, 130 36. 2 15. 4 15. 7 Cash receipts from marketings, Government payments, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Inventory of crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year. Also, see footnote 2, p. 3. s Based on Census of Agriculture definition of a farm. The number of farms is held constant within a year. 1 Income received from farming Realized gross III IV. 1 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Personal income received by total farm population 1967: I II 1 1966 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 1959 1960__ _ 1961 1962 _ 1963_ _ 1964 1965 1966 1967 ! * Income in current prices divided by the index of prices paid by farmers for family living items on a 1967 base. ,, . ,for Alaska ., . and. TT . .-included . , - , ,beginning . . ,^™ NOTE. —_Data Hawaii 1960. Source- Department of Agriculture CORPORATE PROFITS Current estimates indicate that corporate profits before taxes increased almost $3 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter to a record $92 billion. Profits after taxes increased, following a decline in the first quarter as a result of the tax surcharge. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 30 30 20 20 10 10 1968 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period 1959 __ . 1960 _ 1961 _ 1962 _ 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1967:I____ !!___ III___ IV___ 1968: I II — III *_ COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Corporate profits Corporate profits (before taxes) and inventory after taxes valuation adjustment TransCorpo- CorpoManufacturing portation, rate rate DiviUncomprofits tax NonAll Durable durable muniAll 1 before liabil- Total dend distribindusgoods other payuted taxes ity goods cations, Total tries indusand ments profits industries public tries utilities 12. 7 26. 3 13. 6 12. 6 52. 1 28. 5 18. 4 23.7 7. 0 15. 9 51. 7 12. 4 12. 0 24. 4 26. 7 13.4 17. 9 23.0 13. 2 7. 5 49. 7 49. 9 11. 4 23. 3 11. 9 23. 1 27. 2 50. 3 13. 8 7. 9 19. 1 50. 3 13. 5 12. 5 26. 6 14. 1 24. 2 31. 2 15. 2 20. 5 55. 4 16. 0 55. 7 8. 5 13. 0 15. 8 28. 8 33. 1 16. 5 20. 6 59.4 26.3 16. 6 58.9 9.5 14.9 17.8 23.5 32.7 38.4 66.8 28.3 17.8 10.1 66.3 20.6 22. 8 16. 6 39. 3 46. 5 19. 8 25. 6 77.8 31. 3 11. 1 26. 7 76. 1 42. 8 24. 1 18. 8 29. 0 51. 0 12. 0 85. 6 34.6 21.7 83.9 29. 3 21. 2 18. 0 39.2 29. 4 81. 6 48. 1 22. 9 11. 8 33. 5 25.2 80. 4 21. 0 18. 3 39.3 47. 1 11. 7 79. 9 32. 8 22. 5 28. 4 79. 5 24. 6 39.1 21. 2 17. 9 80. 3 23.2 11. 8 33. 0 47.3 79. 6 28. 8 24. 1 20. 6 17. 9 38. 5 80. 8 33.2 12. 0 47. 6 29. 7 23.5 24. 1 80. 2 21. 9 18. 0 39. 9 35. 1 30.6 85. 4 22. 5 50. 3 82. 3 11. 9 27. 9 22. 3 19. 0 41.3 12. 5 49. 1 88. 9 30. 0 39. 8 23.6 83. 8 25. 5 25.2 19.7 41. 1 31.8 91.8 89.2 44.9 50.724.4 12.5 26.3 25. 2 1 J Includes all other industries and financial institutions. Includes depreciation, capital outlays charged to current account, and accidental damages. » Corporate profits after taxes plus corporate capital consumption allowances. °—68- Corporate capital consumption allow-2 ances 23. 5 24. 9 26. 2 30. 1 31.8 33.9 36.4 39. 7 43. 4 41. 9 42. 9 44. 1 44. 9 45.7 46.7 47. 6 Profits plus capital consumption allow-3 an ces 52. 0 51. 6 53. 5 61. 3 64. 8 72.3 82.9 90.7 91. 5 89. 0 90.2 91.7 95. 2 94.8 97.4 NOTE.—Data beginning 1962 adjusted for effects of new depreciation guidelines ($2j^ billion for 1962) and therefore not comparable with preceding data. Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960. Source: Department of Commerce. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT Gross private domestic investment in the third quarter was practically unchanged (seasonally adjusted) from the second quarter level, according to preliminary estimates. A $3.2 billion (annual rate) recovery in business fixed investment was offset by a moderation in the rate of inventory accumulation from its high second quarter level and a slight drop in residential construction. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 40 20 —s; 20 1962 1968 .I/PRELIMINARY. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Fixed investment Total gross private domestic investment Period Total __ . ___ _ __- 67.8 60. 9 75. 3 74.8 71. 7 83. 0 87. 1 94 0 108.1 120. 8 114. 3 113. 0 107. 6 114. 7 121. 8 119. 7 127.3 127.4 Total 66. 5 62. 4 70. 5 71.3 69.7 77.0 81.3 88. 2 98. 5 106. 1 108. 2 104. 6 105.4 109. 3 113. 5 117. 6 116.5 119.6 46. 4 41. 6 45. 1 48. 4 47.0 51. 7 54. 3 61. 1 71. 3 81.3 83.6 83. 5 82. 7 83.3 85.0 88.6 87.0 90.2 NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960. 8 Producers' durable equipment Structures Total 1957 1958 1959 __ 196CL 1961 1962 1963.. . 1964 1965_ 1966 _ _ 1967 . _ 1967: I II III IV 1968: I II III ^ Residential structures Nonresidential 18.0 16. 6 16.7 18. 1 18. 4 19. 2 19. 5 21.2 25. 5 28.5 27.9 29. 0 27. 2 27. 7 27. 7 29. 6 28.5 28.4 Nonfarm Total 17.2 15. 8 15. 9 17.4 17.7 18. 5 18.8 20.5 24. 9 27. 8 27. 1 28. 3 26. 4 27. 0 26. 9 28. 8 27.7 27.6 28. 4 25.0 28. 4 30.3 28. 6 32. 5 34. 8 39.9 45. 8 52. 8 55. 7 54. 5 55. 5 55. 6 57.3 59. 0 58.5 61.8 Nonfarm 25.9 22. 2 25. 4 27. 7 25. 8 29. 4 31. 2 36.3 41. 6 48. 1 51. 0 49. 8 50. 7 50. 9 52. 6 54. 3 53.6 56.8 Total 20. 2 20. 8 25. 5 22. 8 22. 6 25. 3 27. 0 27.1 27. 2 24.8 24. 6 21. 1 22. 7 26. 0 28. 5 29. 1 29.5 29.4 Source: Department of Commerce. Nonfarm 19. 5 20. 1 24.8 22. 2 22. 0 24.8 26. 4 26. 6 26.7 24. 3 24. 0 20. 5 22. 1 25. 4 27. 9 28. 5 28.9 28.8 Change in business inventories Total 1. 3 — 1. 5 4. 8 3. 6 2. 0 6. 0 5. 9 5.8 9. 6 14. 7 6. 1 8.4 2,3 5. 3 8.3 2. 1 10.8 7.7 Nonfarm 0. 8 -2.3 4.8 3.3 1. 7 5.3 5. 1 6.4 8.6 14. 9 5. 6 8.3 2.2 4.8 7. 1 1. 6 10.4 7.6 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT f lant and equipment expenditures (seasonally adjusted) were down sharply in the second quarter, A strong recovery is anticipated for the second half of the year, resulting in a projected increase of 4 percent from the fourth quarter of 1967 to the fourth quarter of 1968. felLUONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 170 70 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES (50 60 TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT 50 50 40 40 NONMANUFACTURING .,„•""•». """ < 30 30 .,«• ••••HUM""1" „!»«•"* 20 20 MANUFACTURING 10 10 I 1962 1964 1963 1965 1966 1967 J/ I J/ |0 1968 TE 3 ON TABLE BELOW SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Transportation Manufacturing Period 1954 1955 1956 - 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 _1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 3___ _ 1968 1967' I II III IV 1968: I II 3 III IV 3 Total * _ _ __ _ _ _ _ -_. _ _ 1 2 _ __ _ __ 26. 83 28. 70 35.08 36.96 30.53 32. 54 35. 68 34. 37 37. 31 39. 22 44. 90 51.96 60.63 61.66 64.37 61. 65 61. 50 60.90 62.70 64. 90 62.75 64. 90 65 15 Total 11. 04 11. 44 14.95 15.96 11. 43 12. 07 14. 48 13.68 14.68 15. 69 18. 58 22.45 26. 99 26.69 26.55 27. 85 27. 00 26.15 26.00 26.35 25.80 26.80 27. 15 Durable Nonduragoods ble goods 5.09 5.44 7.62 8.02 5.47 5.77 7. 18 6. 27 7. 03 7. 85 9. 43 11.40 13.99 13.70 13.42 14. 20 13. 75 13.50 13.50 13. 65 12.80 13.45 13.75 Excludes agriculture. Commercial and other includes trade, service, finance, communications, and construction. 3 Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures as reported by business in late July and August 1968. Includes adjustments when necessary for systematic tendencies in anticipatory data. NOTE.—Beginning 1959 all quarterly data are rounded to nearest $50 million. 5. 95 6. 00 7. 33 7. 94 5. 96 6.29 7. 30 7. 40 7. 65 7. 84 9. 16 11.05 13.00 13.00 13.13 13. 70 13. 25 12.65 12.55 12. 70 13. 00 13.35 13.40 Mining 0. 98 .96 1.24 1.24 . 94 . 99 . 99 . 98 1. 08 1. 04 1. 19 1.30 1.47 1.42 1.49 1. 40 1. 30 1.45 1.50 1. 55 1.40 1.55 1.45 Railroads Other 0.85 . 92 1. 23 1. 40 .75 . 92 1. 03 .67 . 85 1. 10 1. 41 1.73 1.98 1.53 1.52 1.80 1. 55 1.40 1.40 1.65 1.45 1.35 1.60 1. 51 1. 60 1.71 1.77 1.50 2.02 1. 94 1. 85 2. 07 1. 92 2.38 2.81 3.44 3.88 4.55 3.05 3.90 4.10 4.45 4.35 3.65 5.05 5.30 Public Commerand utilities cial other 2 4. 22 4.31 4. 90 6.20 6. 09 5. 67 5. 68 5.52 5. 48 5. 65 6. 22 6.94 8.41 9.88 11.29 9.20 9.70 9.80 10.65 11.60 11.65 11.00 11.00 8. 23 9.47 11. 05 10.40 9. 81 10.88 11.57 11. 68 13. 15 13.82 15. 13 16.73 18.36 18.25 18.98 18. 30 18. 05 17.95 18.70 19.35 18.80 19.15 18.70 Annual total is the sum of unadjusted expenditures; it does not necessarily coincide with the average of seasonally adjusted figures. These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE The civilian labor force, seasonally adjusted, in September showed an increase of 141,000. Agricultural employment declined by 1 31,000 and nonagricultural employment increased by 1 59,000. The increase in unemployment, 11 3,000, was the first since June 1968. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 4 ——- 1968 1962 *16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Unemployment rate (percent of Unem- civilian labor force) ployment Unad- Seasonadjusted ally justed 4,070 3,786 3,366 2,875 2,975 5. 7 5. 2 4. 5 3. 8 82, 571 80, 982 81, 595 81, 582 81, 527 76, 74, 75, 75, 75, 170 631 181 218 338 71, 792 70, 700 71, 148 71, 460 71, 793 2,942 2,895 2, 951 2,894 2, 719 81, 057 81, $,68 81, 535 81, 459 81, 94% 77, 598 77, 807 78, 072 77, 989 78, 473 74, 664 74, 638 74, 735 75, 005 75, 577 3,956 3, 697 3, 718 3,839 4, 216 70, 708 70, 941 71, 017 71, 166 71, 361 2,934 3, 169 3,337 2,984 2,896 3.7 3.8 4.1 3.7 3.8 3. 5 3. 7 79,811 80, 869 80, 938 81, 141 81, 770 84, 454 84, 550 83, 792 82, 137 73, 273 74, 114 74, 517 75, 143 75, 931 77, 27-8 77, 746 77, 432 75, 939 69, 908 70, 653 70, 980 71, 292 71, 935 72, 757 73, 270 73, 325 72, 103 3,074 81, S86 3,288 82, 138 2,929 82, 160 2, 491 81, 849 2,303 82, 149 3, 614 . 82, 585 3,217 82, 572 2, 772 82, 279 2, 606 82, 422 77, 923 78, 672 78, 658 78, 343 78, 613 79, 018 78, 985 78, 690 78, 831 75, 167 75, 731 75, 802 75, 636 75, 829 76, 048 76, 038 75, 929 75, 957 4,003 4,127 71, 164 71, 604 71, 788 71, 656 71, 936 72, 197 72, 202 72, 196 72, 855 2, 756 2,941 2, 856 2, 707 2, 784 2, 970 2, 947 2, 761 2,874 4.0 4.2 3.5 3.7 Period 1963___ 1964.__ 1965... 1966___ 1967___ 74, 571 75, 830 77, 178 78, 893 80, 793 1967: Aug. Sept. Oct__ Nov_ Dee_ 1968: Jan__ Feb. Mar. Apr _ May. JuneJulyAug. Sept_ Civilian employment Total Civilian employment labor force UnemCivilian "NT ••"» JNonNonAgriploy- (includ- labor agnagning Total ment Total culforce eulcularmed tural tural tural forces) Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over 67, 762 63, 076 4,070 74, 571 71, 833 67, 762 4,687 63, 076 69, 305 64, 782 3,786 75, 830 73, 091 69, 305 4,523 64, 782 71, 088 66, 726 3,366 77, 178 74, 455 71, 088 4,361 66, 726 72, 895 68, 915 2,875 78, 893 75, 770 72, 895 3,979 68, 915 74, 372 70, 527 2,975 80, 793 77, 347 74, 372 3,844 70, 527 Unadjusted Seasonally adjusted Total labor force (including armed forces) 1 Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population. NOTE.—Beginning 1960, data include Alaska and Hawaii. 10 4,014 3,980 3, 893 3, 851 3,836 3, 733 3,602 Source: Department of Labor. Labor force participation rate, unad- l justed Percent 59. 6 59. 6 59. 7 60. 1 60. 6 3.8 3. 7 3. 8 4. 3 3.2 2.9 3. 6 8. 5 3. 5 3. 8 8. 7 3.3 3.5 3.6 3. 8 4. 5 4. 0 3. 5 61.8 60.5 60. 9 60.8 60.7 59. 3 60.0 60. 0 60. 1 60. 5 62. 4 62. 3 61.7 60.4 SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND PART-TIME EMPLOYMENT |n September, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose from 3,5 percent to 3.6 percent. The number of parttime workers for economic reasons (seasonally adjusted) declined by 120,000. PERCENT PERCENT 10 110 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED LABOR FORCE TIME LOST THROUGH UNEMPLOYMENT AND PART-TIME WORK UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, ALL CIVILIAN WORKERS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, EXPERIENCED WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, MARRIED MEN 1962 1968 SOURCE.- DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) Labor force time lost Experi- Married through unemenced All men ployment Over 40 wage and (wife and part- hours workers salary time1 workers present) work Period __ _ 5.7 5.2 4.5 3.8 3.8 1967- Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec_ _ _ _ 1968: Jan. _ _ _ Feb Mar Apr May _ June July Aug Sept 3.8 41 4.3 3.8 3. 7 3.5 3.7 3. 6 3. 5 3. 5 3. 8 3. 7 3. 5 3.6 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 Percent 3.4 5. 5 5.0 2.8 2. 4 4.3 3.5 1. 9 1. 8 3.6 Seasonally adjusted 3.6 1.9 3. 9 1.8 1.9 4. 1 1.7 3.7 3. 5 1. 7 1. 6 3. 3 3.5 1.7 1. 7 3.4 3. 2 1. 5 3. 1 1. 6 3. (> 1. 7 1. 6 3. 6 3.4 1. 6 3.4 1.6 J 6. 4 5.8 5. 0 4.2 4. 2 4.3 4. 6 4. 7 4. 2 4. 1 4. 0 4.2 4. 0 3. 7 3. 6 4. 3 4. 3 4. 0 4. 0 35-40 hours Part-time for economic reasons Total Part-time for economic reasons Usually Usually Usually fullfullparttime 3 time 3 time 4 Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over 1,069 1,222 19,271 29, 100 13, 101 1,151 986 20, 788 30, 768 11,818 897 1,031 21, 334 32, 088 12, 034 871 793 20, 920 32, 616 13, 290 1,060 853 Unadjusted Seasonally 1, 012 22, 485 33, 390 12, 066 1, 163 1,023 22, 019 33, 145 12, 219 1,073 810 1,094 21, 411 31, 641 15, 246 922 976 765 21, 628 33, 413 13, 952 751 1,078 1, 108 21, 954 33, 628 14, 026 774 944 911 19, 746 32, 031 14, 753 805 720 729 942 20, 557 32, 383 15, 081 799 915 20,912 33, 566 13, 976 866 804 851 17, 651 28, 705 21, 414 828 665 827 21, 170 34, 005 14, 182 790 679 806 20, 748 33, 981 12, 986 1,079 1, 120 1, 051 19,616 32, 965 11,686 924 1,159 973 20, 134 33, 115 11, 392 995 1,5 103 1, 006 '972 22, 081 33, 773 12, 992 689 991 1 Man-hours lost by the unemployed and those on part-time for economic reasons as a percent of total man-hours potentially available to the civilian labor force. Beginning 1963, series reflects whether unemployed persons sought fullor2part-time jobs. Differs from total nonagricultural employment (p. 10), which includes persons with jobs but not at work for such reasons as vacation, illness, bad weather, and industrial disputes. Persons at work in nonagricultural 2industries by hours worked per week Under 35 hours Usually parttime 4 adjusted 893 873 890 842 863 808 860 892 764 763 860 836 847 742 3 Includes persons who worked part-time because of slack work, material shortages or repairs, new job started, or job terminated. * Primarily includes persons who could find only part-time work. fi Average hours worked: usually full-time, 24.0; usually part-time, 18.0. Source: Department of Labor. "1 1 UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In September, insured unemployment under State programs averaged 91,000 lower than a year earlier. The seasonal!' adjusted insured unemployment rate dropped slightly from 2.3 percent in August to 2.2 percent in September. MILLIONS OF PERSONS MILLIONS OF PERSONS 1 3 3 I WEEKLY INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT (STATE PROGRAMS) JAN, MAR. FEB. APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF IABOR Period All pr Sept Oct Nov__ Dec_ 1968: Jan Feb Mar Apr _ _ _ Mav June-July. Aug Sept "_ Week ended: 1968: Sept 7 14 21 28 _ Oct 5 " 12* _ Thousands 49, 637 1,753 51, 580 1,450 54, 739 1,129 1,270 _ "56, 345 "56, 934 1, 245 "57, 358 1, 123 "57, 201 956 __ "56, 822 953 1, 068 "57, 115 "57, 592 1,339 1,719 1,653 1,480 1, 216 1, 027 944 1,058 1, 024 875 _ 2, 749. 2 2, 360. 4 1, 890. 9 2, 220. 1 155. 3 184. 0 132. 3 133. 0 146. 5 171.8 264.8 259.4 247. 4 205.6 170. 2 139. 8 156. 9 162. 8 128.0 12 State programs Initial claims Insured unemployment as perExhaus- cent of covered employment tions Unad- Seasonadjusted ally justed Weekly average, thousands 1,605 268 26 232 21 1, 328 203 15 1, 061 226 17 1,205 1, 184 288 17 17 187 1,060 894 158 15 180 889 15 997 15 208 1,259 278 16 1,624 316 19 227 1, 556 19 183 1, 390 18 1, 142 183 20 156 19 964 157 883 17 992 240 17 174 955 15 141 803 15 904 871 850 847 851 151 NOTE.—For definitions and coverage, see the 1967 Supplement to Economic Indicators. Data for Alaska and Hawaii included for all periods and for Puerto Eico since January 1961. DEC. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS All programs Insured Total unem- benefits Insured Covered ploypaid unem(milemploy- ment ployment (weekly lions ment averof dolage) lars) 1964_ .__ 1965 1966 1967_ _ __ 1967: July. _ NOV. OCT. 836 805 786 785 788 136 142 143 143 154 151 Source: Department of Labor. Percent 3.8 3. 0 2.3 2. 5 2. 4 2.2 1. 8 1. 8 2. 0 2.6 3.3 3.2 2.8 2.3 2. 0 1. 8 2. 0 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1. 5 Benefits paid Total Average (milweekly lions of check dollars) (dollars) 2, 522. 1 2, 166. 0 1, 771. 3 2, 101. 0 2. 8 147. 3 2.6 172. 8 122. 6 2.4 122. 1 2.4 2. 3 134. 9 2.3 159.2 <O &. o0 248.5 2. 3 243.7 231. 1 2.3 9 & 9 &. 195. 1 9 & 9 &. 159. 1 2.2 129. 5 2.3 145.6 9 <z? 6. O 150.0 a9 . 9& 115.0 35. 92 37. 19 39.75 41. 25 40. 10 41.08 40. 10 40. 70 41. 19 41.85 42.59 43. 58 43. 64 43. 12 42.42 42. 25 42. 39 43.73 42.75 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonfarm payroll employment rose 123,000, seasonally adjusted, in September to 68.5 million. Manufacturing declined slightly and private nonmanufacturing increased by 119,000. State and local government registered a gain of 25,000. MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) (ENLARGED SCALE) 68 64 WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE 12 60 SERVICES 10 56 NONMANUFACTURING (PRIVATE) \ 36 32 x DURABLE MANUFACTURING 10 24 NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING MANUFACTURING 14= 20 16 CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION GOVERNMENT 12 V^i 1966 1967 ?^v 1968 1965 1966 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1967 1968 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers ; 1 seasonally adjusted] Manufacturing (private) Period Total 1961 _ 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1967: Aug. Sept_ Oct__ Nov_ Dec1968: Jan__ Feb__ Mar. Apr__ May_ June_ July-v Aug Sept p 54, 042 55, 596 56, 702 58, 332 60, 832 64, 034 66, 030 66, 186 66, 123 66, 286 66, 778 67, 060 67, 058 67, 600 67, 656 67, 755 67, 792 68, 039 68, 170 68, 335 68, 458 Total NonDurable durable goods goods 16, 326 16, 853 16, 995 17, 274 18, 062 19, 214 19, 434 19, 407 19, 285 19, 302 19, 518 19, 593 19, 612 19, 612 19, 607 19, 657 19.693 19, 777 19, 776 19, 760 19, 752 9,070 9,480 9,616 9,816 10, 406 11, 284 11,422 11,433 11, 272 11,264 11, 463 11, 498 11, 541 11, 514 11, 495 11, 533 11,545 11, 571 11,619 11, 578 11, 581 7, 256 7, 373 7,380 7, 458 7, 656 7, 930 8, 012 7,974 8, 013 8, 038 8, 055 8, 095 8,071 8, 098 8, 112 8, 124 8, 148 8, 206 8, 157 8, 182 8, 171 Nonmanufacturing (private) Total 29, 122 29, 853 30, 481 31, 461 32, 678 33, 949 34, 980 35, 062 35, 140 35, 215 35, 448 35, 578 35, 468 35, 967 35, 996 36, 010 35, 965 36, 030 36, 138 36, 299 36, 418 Con- Transtract portation Mining conand strue- public tion utilities 672 2, 816 3, 903 650 2, 902 3, 906 635 2,963 3,903 634 3, 050 3, 951 632 3, 186 4,036 627 3, 275 4, 151 616 3, 203 4, 271 610 3, 165 4, 288 606 3, 182 4, 278 603 3, 184 4, 267 603 3, 214 4, 297 603 3, 275 4, 302 604 3, 1 07 4 , 3 1 7 608 3, 388 4, 342 601) 3, 330 4, 332 632 3,313 4, 331 631 3,245 4, 281 632 3, 174 4, 336 638 3, 189 4, 346 638 3, 190 4, 365 633 3, 233 4, 377 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 10, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on an enu- Whole- Finance, insursale ance, Services and and retail reali trade estate 11, 337 2, 731 7,664 11, 566 2,800 8,028 11,778 2,877 8,325 12, 160 2, 957 8, 709 12,716 3,023 9,087 13, 245 3, 100 9, 551 13, 613 3, 217 10, 060 13, 648 3, 241 10, 110 13, 684 3, 251 10, 139 13, 729 3, 261 10, 171 13,791 3, 273 10, 270 13, 793 3, 289 10,316 13, 818 3, 291 10, 331 13, 920 3,304 10, 405 13, 999 3,311 10,415 14, 009 3, 323 10, 402 14, 049 3,334 10, 425 14, 086 3, 335 10, 467 14, 117 3, 350 10, 498 14, 179 3, 377 10, 550 14, 199 3, 389 |10, 587 Government Federal 2, 279 2,340 2,358 2, 348 2,378 2,564 2,719 2,740 2,718 2,718 2,692 2,709 2,721 2,721 2,718 2,717 2,721 2, 795 2, 788 2,751 2, 738 State and local 6,315 6,550 6,868 7,249 7,714 8,307 8,897 8,977 8,980 9, 051 9, 120 9, 180 9,257 9,300 9,335 9,371 9, 413 9,437 9,468 9, 525 9, 550 meration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports ' " ; establishments. -~L-•>-•.-•_,. —±from employing NOTE.—Beginning 1959, data include Alaska and Hawaii. Source: Department of Labor. 13 WEEKLY HOURS OF WORK - SELECTED INDUSTRIES Average weekly hours (seasonally adjusted) in September rose 0.3 hours in manufacturing and 0.4 hours in con tract construction, but were unchanged in retail trade. HOURS PER WEEK (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 46 HOURS PER WEEK {SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 46 DURABLE MANUFACTURING NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING 44 44 ^-w^1*"""^ 42 \ ^ •^^^^rnrnn^^— ^rv 42 m. 40 40 38 38 36 36 34 /ft 1 I 1 I 1 i I 1 ! I v 1 1 1 1 1 1965 1 1 1 1 L i i r i i 1 i i iIi 1967 1966 II 34 ! 1 1 1 1 1 ! I IN ^~^^_ A\ \ i i i I I i i i i 1 I 1 ! 1965 1968 1 I 1 1 1 ! 1 "^ 1 J 1 ' 1 ! I I I 1 ! 1 v'V~~ 1 ! I ! I ! 1 1966 1967 1968 1966 1967 1968 1 1 ! 1N N 42 42 CONTRACT CONSTRUaiON RETAIL TRADE 40 40 /^l 38 36 38 36 34 34 32 32 30 30 I 1 I I I I IJ I 1965 1966 1967 1968 1965 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 1 [Average hours per week; seasonally adjusted] Manufacturing industries Period 1958 1959 1960 1961_ 1962 1963_ __ 1964 _ _ 1965 1966 1967 1967: A u g _ _ Sept Oct Nov ._ _ Dec_ 1968: Jan Feb _ _ Mar Apr__ May June. Julv Aug vp Sept _ _ __ _ __ __ . _ __ __ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ ___ _ ___ _ __ _ Durable goods All _ __ 39. 2 40. 3 39. 7 39. 8 40. 4 40.5 40. 7 41.2 41. 3 40. 6 40.6 40. 9 40. 7 40. 7 40. 7 40. 2 40.8 40. 7 40. 1 40.9 40.9 40. 9 40.6 40.9 i Data relate to production workers or nonsupervisory employees. Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1959. 14 39. 5 40.7 40. 1 40. 3 40. 9 41.1 41. 4 42.0 42. 1 41. 2 41. 1 41. 4 41. 2 41. 2 41. 3 40. 9 41.4 41. 4 40.7 41.5 41.7 41. 5 41. 0 41.4 2 Nondurable goods Contract construction 38.8 39. 7 39.2 39. 3 39. 6 39.6 39. 7 40. 1 40.2 39.7 39.7 40. 0 39. 7 39. 9 39. 9 39. 2 40.0 39. 8 39.2 39.8 40.0 39. 9 39. 9 40.1 Includes eating and drinking places. Source: Department of Labor. 36. 8 37. 0 36. 7 36. 9 37. 0 37. 3 37. 2 37.4 37.6 37.7 37.4 38. 0 37. 2 39. 4 37. 2 36.0 37.9 36. 8 37.8 37.2 37.6 37. 3 37. 5 37.9 Retail trade 2 38. 1 38. 2 38.0 37. 6 37.4 37.3 37. 0 36. 6 35. 9 35. 3 35.4 35. 3 35. 1 35. 2 35. 1 34.8 34.9 34. 7 34.8 34.6 34.9 34. 9 34. 9 34.9 AVERAGE HOURLY AND WEEKLY EARNINGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES Average hourly earnings in September rose to all-time highs in manufacturing ($3.03), contract construction ($4.45), and retail trade ($2.18). Weekly earnings also set records of $124.23 in manufacturing and $172,22 in contract construction/ however, they declined by $1.25 in retail trade. DOLLARS DOLLARS AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS 3.25 130 DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES ,,,.A 3.00 120 2.75 110 \ ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES 2.50 100 ' s~\ r NONDURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES 2.25 90 1965 1968 1965 1966 1968 1967 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [For production workers or nonsupervisory employees] Period 1958 1959 I960 1961 1962 1963 _ _ 1964 1965 1966 _ 1967 1967: Aug__ Sept._ Oct.__ Nov. _ Dec__ 1968: Jan___ Feb___ Mar__ Apr___ May_. June__ July._ Aug__. Sept*_ Average hourly earnings— current prices Average weekly earnings— current prices Manufacturing industries Contract conRetail1 NonDurable durable trade strucAll goods tion goods Manufacturing industries Contract Retail1 conNonDurable durable trade strucAll goods tion goods 2. 11 2. 19 2. 26 2. 32 2. 39 2. 46 2. 53 2. 61 2.72 2. 83 2. 82 2. 85 2. 85 2. 88 2. 91 2. 94 2. 94 2. 96 2. 97 2. 99 3. 00 3.00 2. 99 3.03 2. 26 2. 36 2. 43 2. 49 2. 56 2. 63 2. 71 2. 79 2. 90 3. 00 3. 00 3. 03 3. 03 3. 05 3. 09 3. 13 3. 12 3. 14 3. 15 3. 18 3. 18 3. 18 3. 17 3.21 1 Includes 2 1. 91 1. 98 2. 05 2. 11 2. 17 2. 22 2. 29 2. 36 2.45 2. 57 2. 57 2. 61 . 2. 61 . 2. 62 2. 64 2. 67 2. 68 2. 69 2. 70 2. 72 2. 73 2. 75 2. 75 2.78 2. 82 2. 93 3. 08 3. 20 3. 31 3. 41 3. 55 3. 70 3. 89 4. 11 4. 11 4. 20 4. 22 4. 22 4. 25 4. 34 4.27 4. 28 4. 27 4. 32 4. 29 4. 34 4. 36 4.45 1. 42 1. 47 1. 52 1. 56 1. 63 1. 68 1. 75 1. 82 1.91 2. 01 2. 00 .2. 03 2. 04 2. 05 2. 04 2. 09 2. 11 2. 12 2. 13 2. 14 2. 16 2. 16 2. 16 2.18 82. 71 8a 26 89. 72 92. 34 96. 56 99. 63 102. 97 107. 53 112. 34 114. 90 114. 49 116. 85 116. 28 117. 50 119. 60 117. 60 119. 36 120. 18 118. 21 122. 29 123. 30 122. 10 121. 39 124. 23 eating and drinking places. Earnings in current prices, adjusted to exclude overtime and interindustry shifts. * Earnings in current prices divided by the consumer price index. 20-755 ° — 68 3 89. 27 96. 05 97. 44 100. 35 104. 70 108. 09 112. 19 117. 18 122. 09 123. 60 123. 30 125. 75 125. 44 125. 66 129. 16 127. 70 128. 54 129. 68 127. 58 132. 29 132. 92 131. 02 129. 97 133. 22 74. 11 78. 61 80. 36 82. 92 85. 93 87. 91 90. 91 94, 64 98. 49 102. 03 102. SO 104. 92 104. 14 105. 06 105. 86 103. 86 106. 40 106. 79 104. 76 108. 26 109. 47 110.00 110. 55 112.03 103. 78 108. 41 113. 04 118. 08 122. 47 127. 19 132. 06 138. 38 146. 26 154. 95 159. 06 162. 96 160. 78 161. 63 155. 13 151. 90 154. 57 154. 94 159. 27 162. 43 164. 74 167. 52 169. 17 172. 22 54. 10 56. 15 57. 76 58. 66 60. 96 62. 66 64. 75 66. 61 68. 57 70. 95 72.60 71.66 71.20 71.34 72. 22 72. 11 72. 80 72.93 73. 49 73.40 75. 82 77.33 77.33 76.08 1 Manufacturing industries Adjusted Average hourly weekly earnearnings, ings, 1957-59= 1957-59 100 2 prices 3 100. 2 103. 5 106. 6 109. 6 112. 3 115. 2 118. 0 121. 1 125. 1 130. 9 131. 1 131.9 132. 4 133.4 134.3 135.7 136. 5 137. 0 137.7 138. 1 138.3 138.5 139.2 82. 14 86. 96 87. 02 88. 62 91. 61 93. 37 95. 25 97. 84 99. 33 98. 80 97.94 99.79 98.96 99.75 101. 18 99. 16 100. 30 100. 57 98. 59 101. 65 101. 99 100. 49 99.58 NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1959. Source: Department of Labor. 15 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Industrial production, seasonally adjusted, declined less than % percent in September, following a 1 percent drop in August. The September index was about 4V4 percent above the level of a year earlier. Index, 1957-59=100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 200 Index, 1957-59=100. (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 200 TOTAL UTILITIES AND MINING 180 180 160 160 140 140 MINING 120 120 100 100 1966 1965 1967 1965 1968 1966 1968 1967 180 MARKET GROUPS 160 160 140 140 120 120 MATERIALS FINAL PRODUCTS 100 1965 SOURCE: 1968 1965 1966 1967 1968 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [1957-59 = 100, seasonally adjusted] Period 1958 1959 1960 _ _ _ __ ._ __ __ _ 901 962 96H 964 965 966 967 »'.. _ 1967: A U K Sept _ ( >ct Nov. -_ J>«'C ttms J a n l-vi, Mat •M.r M-iv JMt». J.-.h *»*i •' • * l • ' r ----- Market Industry Total industrial production Total 93. 7 105. 6 108. 7 109. 7 118. 3 124 3 132.3 143.4 156. 3 158.0 158. 1 156.8 156.9 159. 5 162. 0 161. 2 162. 0 163.0 162. 5 164. 2 16.5. 4 ]fi. p >. 6 16;?. 9 1615. 4 93. 2 106.0 10&9 109. 6 118. 7 124,9 133.1 145.0 158. 6 159.6 159. 4 158. 1 158.3 161. 1 164.0 162. 7 163. 6 164.6 163. 7 165.8 167. 1 166. 7 165. 0 164. 7 Final products Manufacturing NonDurable durable 90.3 105. 6 108. 5 107. 0 117. 9 124. 5 133.5 148.4 164. 8 163.8 163. 6 161. 1 160. 7 164. 1 168.1 167. 2 167. 6 168.2 167. 2 169. 8 170.8 170. 3 167.0 166.6 96.8 106. 5 109. 5 112. 9 119. 8 125. 3 132.6 140.8 150. 8 154.4 154 0 154 2 155. 2 157. 2 158.9 157. 1 158. 6 160.0 159. 5 160.8 162.4 162.2 162. 4 162.3 Mining Utilities Total 95. 6 99. 7 101. 6 102. 6 105. 0 107. 9 111.5 114.8 120. 5 123.5 127.8 124. 3 122.4 123. 6 122. 3 121. 6 123. 9 126.2 127. 1 126.9 128.9 130.7 129. 4 126.4 98. 1 108. 0 115. 6 122. 3 131. 4 140. 0 151.3 160.9 173. 9 184.4 185.4 185.6 188. 7 191.5 192. 6 196.7 199.0 198.0 196. 5 196. 1 197.7 199.0 199.8 200.2 94 8 105. 7 109. 9 111. 2 119. 7 124 9 131.8 142.5 155. 5 158.3 158. 2 157. 0 156. 9 160.0 161.9 160. 8 162. 0 163. 5 161. 7 163. 0 164 9 1645 164 6 164.6 Consumer goods 96. 4 106. 6 111. 0 112. 6 119. 7 125. 2 131.7 140.3 147. 5 148. 4 148. 6 147.0 147.9 150. 1 152.8 151. 3 152. 9 155.0 153. 5 154 6 156.4 156.2 156.5 156.7 Equipment 91. 3 104 1 107. 6 108. 3 119. 6 124 2 132.0 147.0 172.6 179.6 178. 9 178. 6 176. 1 181.1 181. 5 181. 4 181. 6 181.8 179. 4 181. 1 183.0 182.3 181.8 181.8 Materials 92.7 105.4 107.6 108.4 117.0 123.7 132.8 144.2 157. 0 157.7 157.9 156.7 157.4 159.5 162. 2 161.7 161. 8 162.8 163. 1 165. 2 166.2 166.7 162. 9 162.0 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED MANUFACTURES Output of manufactures (seasonally adjusted) in September was fractionally lower than in August, The most significant decline was 4% percent in primary metals, largely due to a 614 percent drop in iron and steel production. 120 100 1965 1968 160 CHEMICALS, PETROLEUM AND TEXTILES APPAREL AND. LEATHER RUBBER 140 ^^- N—Xl "„ + -*.* 160 120 140 100 , . . . . ! , , , , , 1965 '* FOODS, BEVERAGES, /^ND TOBACCO 1968 1965 , 1966 ,,, , , , , , , , , . . r . . 1 . . . .. 1967 1968 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [1957-59 = 100, seasonally adjusted] Nondurable manufactures Durable manufactures Period 1959 1960 1961 1962 _ _ 1963 1964 - _ 1965 1966 1967 p 1967: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1968' J a n Feb Mar Apr M ay June July Aug Sept " Primary metals _ _ _ _ _ _ __ -- _ _ _ - _-_ - __ _ ~ __ __ FabriTranspor- Lumber Textiles, Paper and Machincated tation and apparel, ery prodand printequipmetal ing ment leather ucts products 100. 4 101. 3 98. 9 104. 6 113. 3 129. 1 137.6 142. 7 132. 5 1 29. 3 129. 2 131.7 135. 0 140. 9 1 36. 3 1 H9. 3 140.2 143. 3 148. 5 148. 6 145. 9 124. 0 119 105. 5 107. 6 106. 5 117. 1 123. 4 132.7 147. 8 163. 0 162. 0 159. 1 158. 1 158.2 1 59. 8 162. 4 163. 1) 165. 7 166.6 161.4 165. 0 166.0 165. 8 163.0 162 107. 1 110. 8 110. 4 123. 5 129. 2 141.4 160. 5 183. 8 183. 4 182.8 182.2 179. 6 183.2 182. 2 183. 4 183. 2 183.3 179.4 179.9 181. 1 181. 5 182.9 183 104. 0 108. 2 103. 6 118. 3 127. 0 130.7 149.2 166. 9 166.0 171.9 159.2 159.2 165.6 177. 5 175. 6 175. 1 177.6 175.3 180.4 182.6 183. 2 181. 3 181 108. 5 102. 1 101. 3 106. 1 108. 9 112.6 117.4 119. 4 116.5 109.2 114.3 117.0 120. 6 125. 7 118. 1 119. 3 125.0 123. 9 122.7 122. 5 121. 5 113. 5 108. 1 107. 5 108. 4 115. 1 118. 5 125.2 135.8 141. 6 139.6 137.6 139. 1 140.4 143.0 145. 9 141. 0 141. 9 143.9 142.9 144. 1 145.5 144. 4 143. 9 144 105. 2 109. 0 112. 4 116. 7 120. 1 127.5 135.3 146. 4 149.6 150.3 148.5 148.6 149.9 149. 5 148. 6 150. 6 152.0 151.6 154.5 155.2 154. 9 154. 2 153 Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber 108.9 113. 9 118. 9 131. 2 141. 8 152.5 164.6 181. 9 189. 5 189.5 191.2 192.8 195. 8 199. 0 197. 7 200. 2 201.6 200.9 203. 1 205.3 205. 9 206. 8 207 Foods, beverages, and tobacco 103. 9 106. 6 110. 2 113. 3 116. 8 120.8 123.4 128. 1 131.5 131.0 130.4 131. 1 132.2 133. 1 132. 0 133. 1 133.7 133.6 132.9 134.5 134. 2 134.9 135 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 WEEKLY INDICATORS OF PRODUCTION In September, automobile assemblies rose sharply following the completion of the model changeover. Production of steel, electric power, and paperboard declined while other weekly indicators of production posted gains. MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS (DAILY AVERAGE) MILLIONS OF TONS STEEL 2.5 3.5 2.0 2.5 1.5 1.0 i i I i i t I i i i i I i i i I i i i I i i i t I i i i I i i i i I 1 1 i I i i i I i i i i I i i 11 J F M A M J J A S O N D 15 r J F M A M J BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS 28 26 22 20 SOURCES: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTATE. AND WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS Electric Bituminous Freight Paperboard Cars and trucks Steel produced power coal mined produced assembled (thousands) loaded Index distributed (thousands (thousands Thousands (thousands of short of net (1957-59= (millions of Total Cars Trucks of tons) of cars) 100) kilowatt-hours) tons) l tons Period Weekly average: 1961 1962 1963 1964 _ 1965 -. 1966 1967 1967: Aug Sept Oct Nov __ __ Dec 1968: Jan _ Feb Mar— _ _ Apr_ May. _ June July Aug. Sept » _ Week ended: 1968: Sept 14 __ 21 28 Oct 5 » 12 » __ _ _. __ _ 1,880 1,886 2,096 2,431 2,521 2,572 2, 440 2, 325 2, 439 2, 522 2,634 2, 704 2, 712 2, 849 2, 872 2,902 2, 867 2,775 2, 591 2, 022 1, 884 100. 9 101. 2 112. 5 130. 5 135.3 138. 1 131. 0 1248 130. 9 135. 4 141.4 145. 2 145. 6 152.9 154. 1 155. 8 153. 9 149.0 139. 1 108. 5 101. 1 1, 881 1, 886 1,860 1,881 1,987 101. 0 101.2 99.8 101.0 106.7 i Daily average. Includes data for Alaska. 18 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS *Not charted. 15, 139 16, 325 17, 490 18, 728 20, 169 21, 971 23, 169 24, 400 22, 871 22, 662 23, 533 24, 405 25, 365 25, 338 24, 081 23, 344 23, 560 25, 772 26, 632 27, 562 24, 785 24, 24, 25, 24, *24, 918 754 208 467 316 1, 353 1, 414 1, 535 1, 630 1, 735 1, 798 1, 863 1, 885 1,819 1,873 1,923 1, 727 1,738 1,753 1, 827 1, 887 1,871 1, 875 2, 005 1,843 13 976 550 552 555 558 562 570 539 560 552 586 552 496 487 514 535 548 571 578 536 555 563 322 343 358 384 410 446 439 448 413 463 458 421 421 486 480 480 488 489 437 497 469 127.8 157. 5 175. 0 178. 8 213.7 199. 3 172. 9 86. 5 160. 3 171. 2 190. 1 219. 8 207. 3 211.0 229. 5 215. 4 244. 0 246.8 152.6 71.2 199.4 106. 1 133. 4 146. 9 148. 8 179.4 165. 4 142. 4 64. 4 135. 3 146. 7 158.6 185. 0 172. 9 174.5 189. 2 177.7 200. 4 202.2 122. 6 46.7 160.7 21.7 24 1 28.1 30.0 34.3 33.9 30.5 22. 1 25. 0 24 6 31.4 34 7 34 4 36.5 40. 2 37. 6 43. 6 44. 6 29. 9 24 6 38.7 1,926 1, 928 2, 045 1, 323 583 586 593 568 492 494 507 512 194 8 221.4 237.4 236.5 255.7 156. 1 180.4 194.4 192.9 212.7 38.7 41.0 43. 1 43.6 43.0 Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, Association of American Railroads, American Paper Institute, and Ward's Automotive Reports. NEW CONSTRUCTION [He value of total new construction activity (seasonally adjusted) registered its second straight month of recovery in August with a gain of 1% percent. Private construction was up 1 percent largely because of a 2 percent rise in residential construction. Public construction advanced 2 percent with a sharp rise in Federal outlays. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 90 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 90 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 80 80 TOTAL NEW CONSTRUCTION 70 70 60 60 PRIVATE 50 -^-' 50 40 40 30 20 PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL (NONFARM) \ "•1962 1968 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF CO/AMERCE Period 1962 1963 1964__ _ _ _ 1965_, _ _ 1966 1967 Total new construction expenditures 59.7 63. 4 66. 2 72.3 75. 1 76.2 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Private Residential nonfarm Total 41.8 44. 1 45. 8 50.3 51. 1 50. 6 CommerNew cial and housing industrial units Billions of dollars 24. 3 18. 6 8. 0 26. 2 20. 4 7. 9 9. 0 26. 3 20. 4 26.3 20. 4 11. 9 24.0 18. 0 13. 6 23.7 17. 9 13. 1 Total l Other 9. 5 10. 0 10. 6 12.1 13. 6 13.7 Federal, State, and local 17. 9 19. 4 20. 4 22. 1 24. 0 25. 6 75.7 76. 7 78. 3 78. 9 79. 6 81. 2 82.9 83.9 83. 6 84. 6 84. 7 82. 5 82.7 83.9 50. 4 51. 6 52. 8 53. 5 53. 9 54. 0 55. 3 55. 4 56. 1 56. 7 56.2 54. 5 54. 7 55.3 23. 8 25. 0 25. 8 26. 4 27. 2 27. 6 27. 0 26.8 27. 7 28. 6 28.6 27. 7 27. 4 27.9 17.8 18. 7 19. 5 20. 4 21. 3 21. 8 21. 2 21. 3 21. 7 22. 3 22. 3 21. 4 21. 2 21.7 1 Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. 2 Compiled by F. W. Dodge Company and relates to 48 States. 12. 9 12. 6 13. 1 13. 2 12. 7 12. 5 14. 1 14. 1 13. 8 14. 0 13.4 13.0 13.0 13.4 119.7 132. 0 137.0 142. 8 145. 3 153.3 Seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1967: July . _ Aus: Sept Oct Nov Dec 1968: Jan Feb Mar Apr _ May _ June _ _ _ July Aug * Construction contracts 2 CommerTotal value cial and industrial (index, 1957-59= floor space 100) (millions of square feet) 13. 6 14. 0 13. 9 13. 9 14. 0 13. 8 14. 3 14. 6 14. 6 14. 1 14.2 13.8 14. 2 14.0 25.4 25. 1 25. 4 25. 4 25. 7 27. 2 27. 6 28.5 27.5 27.9 28.4 28. 0 28.0 28.6 149 165 168 171 168 166 166 152 169 164 172 160 187 192 500 534 599 680 769 694 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 681 740 725 701 758 769 774 737 799 565 804 796 860 794 NOTE.—Revised series on new construction beginning 1965. Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1959. Sources: Department of Commerce and F. W. Dodge Company. 19 NEW HOUSING STARTS AND APPLICATIONS FOR FINANCING Private nonfarm housing starts rose 5% percent in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,576,000 unit They were 17 percent above the low average of May and June. Permits for future starts were up 9 percent followin 3 consecutive months of little or no change. MILLIONS OF UNITS 1 2.5 MILLIONS OF UNITS 2.5 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 2.0 2.0 PRIVATE NONFARM HOUSING STARTS 1.5 1.0 1.0 VA APPRAISAL REQUESTS FHA APPLICATIONS A 1962 «•»..„„„.*„„.„.%—»' 1964 1963 1966 1965 1967 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF CO/AMERCE, FEDERAL HOUSING ADMINISTRATION (FHA). AND VETERANS ADMINISTRATION (VA) [Thousands of units] Housing starts Total private and Period public (including farm) 1962__ 1, 492. 4 1, 642. 0 1963 . 1964 1, 561. 6 1965____ ._ 1, 509. 6 1966 1, 196. 2 1, 321. 9 1967 1, 462. 7 1, 610. 3 1, 529. 3 1, 472. 9 1, 165. 0 1, 291. 6 1, 439. 0 1, 582.9 1, 502.3 1, 450. 6 1, 141.5 1, 268. 4 130. 2 125. 8 137.0 120. 2 83.1 82.7 87. 2 128.6 165. 2 145. 1 142. 9 142. 5 MO. 6 140.2 127. 4 121.9 135. 4 118. 4 80.1 80.5 84. 6 126.6 162. 0 140. 9 137. 9 139. 8 136. 2 1 34. 7 123. 6 119. 5 133. 1 116. 8 79.1 79.8 82. 8 123.9 159. 1 139. 0 136. 0 137. 3 134. 1 132.9 1967: Aug__ Sept__ Oct.. Nov__ Dec__ 1968: J a n _ _ Feb__ Mar. Apr.. Alav. .Juno. . h i l v .Jl Aug Sept v T> • Total private (including farm) 4. r c nvate nonfarm Total Total private (including farm) 967. 8 993.2 944.5 941. 4 755.3 820. 7 Two or more families 471. 2 589.7 557.8 509. 2 386.2 447.7 1, 462. 7 1, 610.3 1, 529.3 1, 472. 9 1, 165.0 1, 291. 6 80.0 75.8 79. 4 67.4 46. 1 44.5 53. 5 76.6 95.0 85. 0 79. 6 83. 9 80.0 77.2 43.6 43.7 53.7 49.4 33. 0 35. 3 29. 3 47. 3 64. 1 54. 0 56. 4 53.4 54. 1 55.7 1,407 1,445 1, 496 1, 590 1,250 1,456 1, 537 1,511 1,591 1, 364 1, 365 1,531 1,514 1, 598 Onefamily •<l by l:.".twuo»' of local building permit; in 13,000 permit-issuing i l n t - It»»i7; I'.VioO for 11)03-60; and 10,000 prior to 1963. < i < - i - n t f « l l i \ timrU'iH'o applications f o r n e w home construction. 20 1968 . .Private nonfarm Total Government home programs FHA VA 1, 439. 0 197. 3 77. 8 71. 0 1, 582.9 166. 2 59.2 1, 502.3 154.0 49.4 1, 450. 6 159.9 36. 8 1, 141.5 129. 1 52. 5 1, 268. 4 141. 9 Seasonally adjusted 141 57 1,381 150 56 1,415 155 1,478 58 154 54 1, 567 55 1,235 149 52 157 1,430 164 63 1, 499 1,479 63 149 1, 562 147 59 57 1,345 133 54 1, 348 137 49 1, 507 134 1,492 144 51 54 1, 576 145 Proposed home construction New private housing Abdica- Requests units tions for for VA FHA appraisauthorized l commit-2 als 2 ments 221. 1 1, 186. 6 190. 2 1, 334. 7 182. 1 1, 285. 8 188.9 1, 239. 8 971. 9 153. 0 1, 124. 9 167.2 annual rates 180 1, 169 176 1, 207 1,236 185 1, 204 189 162 1,368 1, 148 163 152 1, 394 1,416 160 144 1,340 161 1,280 157 1, 281 1,289 146 167 1,290 1,405 168 171. 2 139. 3 113.6 102.1 99. 2 124.3 122 131 151 136 125 122 141 127 126 110 120 135 127 125 NOTE.—Data include Alaska and Hawaii. Sources: Department of Commerce, Federal Housing Administration (FHA), and Veterans Administration (VA). BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES - TOTAL AND TRADE According to preliminary figures, retail sales (seasonally adjusted) fell slightly in September following a 1 percent rise in August. Business sales were down 1 percent in August and inventories were up $650 million. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 160 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS [SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 20 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) RETAIL TRADE (ENLARGED SCALE) BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES 18 DURABLE GOODS STORES 140 INVENTORIES 16 V 120 INVENTORIES 14 12 100 SALES 10 r SALES 80 - WHOLESALE TRADE (ENLARGED SCALE) NONDURABLE GOODS STORES i 1965 1968 1967 1966 1965 *SEE FOOTNOTE 7 BELOW. SOURCEi DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Sales N COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total business * Period 1968 2 Inventories 3 Wholesale Sales 2 4 Sales 2 Inventories 3 Total Retail 5 Inventories NonDurable durable goods goods stores stores Total Durable goods stores 26, 813 26, 238 27, 938 29, 383 31, 130 34, 607 36, 961 36, 682 35, 997 36, 028 36, 143 36,217 36, 474 36, 682 37, 130 37, 082 37, 003 37,512 37, 921 38, 162 38, 365 38, 167 11, 923 10, 965 11, 656 12, 386 13, 136 15, 194 16, 536 15, 977 15, 549 15, 503 15, 711 15, 681 15, 728 15, 977 16, 238 16, 268 16, 253 16, 684 16, 839 17, 026 17, 024 16, 880 3 Nondurable goods stores Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 . _ _ 1966 1967 1967: July Auer _ Sept _ Oct _ _ 1968: ___ Nov Dec Jan _ _ _ Feb Mar Apr Mav June July p Aug Sept * _ _ _ 60, 746 60, 759 64, 884 68, 260 72, 852 79, 456 86, 254 87, 969 88, 627 90, 091 89, 946 89, 032 90, 785 92, 072 93, 206 93, 708 94, 587 94, 381 95, 904 97, 399 7 98, 156 7 96, 990 6 94, 747 95, 669 101, 086 105, 458 111, 477 121, 060 135, 777 141, 136 137, 986 138, 670 138, 672 139, 130 139, 924 141, 136 141, 661 142, 113 142, 380 143, 757 145, 123 145, 842 146, 363 147, 017 6 1 The term "business" also includes manufacturinj 2 Monthly average for year and total for month. 3 Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. 4 Beginning 1961, data include Alaska and Hawaii. 5 Beginning 1960, data include Alaska and Hawaii. 11, 656 11, 988 12, 674 13, 382 14, 527 15, 595 16, 979 17, 099 17, 145 17, 198 17, 330 17, 195 17, 419 17, 641 17, 694 17, 953 18, 021 18, 006 17, 897 18, 374 18, 269 18, 490 ;e22). 14, 120 14, 488 14, 936 16, 048 16, 977 18, 274 20, 691 21, 635 20, 511 20, 789 20, 810 20, 945 21, 061 21, 635 21, 641 21, 623 21, 618 21, 863 21, 924 22, 098 22, 169 21, 993 18, 294 18, 234 19, 613 20, 536 21, 802 23, 654 25, 306 26, 125 26, 444 26, 422 26, 732 26, 089 26, 411 26, 470 27, 065 27, 399 28, 120 27, 620 27 993 28,' 296 7 28, 814 29, 115 29, 042 6 7 5,880 5, 581 6, 210 6, 627 7,014 7,810 8, 151 8,306 8, 592 8, 508 8, 743 8,235 8, 221 8, 327 8, 523 8, 765 9, 053 8,832 9, 031 9, 211 7 9, 397 9, 581 9, 771 12, 414 12, 654 13, 402 13, 909 14, 788 15, 844 17, 155 17, 820 17, 852 17, 914 17, 989 17, 854 18, 190 18, 143 18, 542 18, 634 19, 067 18, 788 18, 962 19, 085 7 19, 417 19, 534 19, 271 14, 890 15, 273 16, 282 16, 997 17, 994 19, 413 20, 425 20, 705 20, 448 20, 525 20, 432 20, 536 20, 746 20, 705 20, 892 20, 814 20, 750 20, 828 21, 082 21, 136 21, 341 21, 287 Series revised beginning 1961. See p. 22. Not strictly comparable with earlier data; retail sales based on new sample beginning July. See forthcoming August Monthly Trade Report. Source: Department of Commerce. _ 21 MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND NEW ORDERS Manufacturers' inventories increased a substantial $1 billion (seasonally adjusted) in August. Shipments were reportea down 31/3 percent leading to a large jump in the inventory shipments ratio to 1.76. Durable manufacturers' orders rose a moderate 1 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 60 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 90 MANUFACTURERS' INVENTORIES MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS 80 TOTAL V 70 60 DURABLE GOODS 50 40 MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS NONDURABLE GOODS 30 NONDURABLE GOODS 20 1965 1968 i i i i i I i i i ii 1965 1966 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturers' shipments l Manufacturers 7 inventories 2 Period Total 1968 1967 NonDurable durable goods goods Total NonDurable durable goods goods Manufacturers' new orders 1 Durable goods Total Total NonMachinery durable and goods equipment Manufacturers' inventoryshipments ratio 3 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1960___ _ _ _ _ 1961__ 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 __ 1967. 1967: June__ _ July Aug Sept __ Oct _ Nov__ Dec 1968: Jan__ __ Feb Mar Apr May__ June_ _ _ July Aug " 30, 722 30, 896 33, 113 35, 032 37, 335 41, 003 44, 876 45, 712 45, 579 45, 038 46, 471 45, 884 45, 748 46, 955 47, 961 48, 447 48, 356 48, 446 48, 755 50, 014 50, 729 51, 073 49, 385 15, 743 15, 544 17, 103 18,247 19, 634 22, 216 24, 635 24, 973 24, 979 24, 417 25, 759 25, 171 24, 802 25, 538 26, 610 26, 925 26, 711 26, 844 26, 888 27, 509 27, 633 27, 859 26, 337 14, 979 15, 352 16, 010 16, 786 17, 701 18, 788 20, 240 20, 739 20, 600 20, 621 20, 712 20, 713 20, 946 21,417 21, 351 21, 522 21, 645 21, 602 21, 867 22, 505 23, 096 23, 214 23, 048 53, 814 54, 943 58, 212 60, 027 63, 370 68, 179 78, 125 82, 819 81, 119 81, 478 81, 853 81, 719 81, 968 82, 389 82, 819 82, 890 83, 408 83, 759 84, 382 85, 278 85, 582 85, 829 86, 857 32, 360 32, 518 34, 609 35, 807 38, 433 42, 204 49, 797 53, 540 52, 035 52, 461 52, 801 52, 582 52, 867 53, 283 53, 540 53, 525 54, 009 54, 295 54, 724 55, 234 55, 442 55, 461 56, 142 1 Monthly average for year and total for month. Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. 2 8 22 21, 454 22, 425 23, 603 24, 220 24, 937 25, 975 28, 328 29, 279 29, 084 29, 017 29, 052 29, 137 29, 101 29, 106 29, 279 29, 365 29, 399 29, 464 29, 658 30, 044 30, 140 30, 368 30, 715 30, 232 31, 085 33, 005 35, 322 37, 952 41, 803 45, 938 45, 928 46, 332 45, 606 46, 654 45, 942 46, 655 47, 320 49, 463 48, 353 48, 453 49, 566 49, 237 49, 650 49, 850 49, 829 49, 729 15, 340 15, 698 17, 026 18, 522 20, 258 22, 986 25, 710 25, 189 25, 768 24, 921 25, 879 25, 177 25, 679 25, 852 28, 056 26, 837 26, 814 28, 005 27, 373 27, 172 26, 701 26, 573 26, 778 2,791 2,854 3, 090 3,412 3, 935 4,435 5, 268 5, 250 5, 376 5, 376 5,471 5, 350 5, 314 5,372 5,495 5,466 5, 380 5,382 5,492 5,447 5, 968 5,714 5,904 14, 892 15, 387 15, 979 16, 800 17, 694 18, 817 20, 228 20, 739 20, 564 20, 685 20, 775 20, 765 20, 976 21, 468 21, 407 21, 516 21, 639 21, 561 21, 864 22, 478 23, 149 23, 256 22, 951 1.76 1. 74 1. 72 1. 69 1. 64 1. 60 1.62 1.77 1.78 1. 81 1. 76 1.78 1. 79 1.75 1.73 1.71 1.72 1. 73 1.73 1.71 1. 69 1. 68 1. 76 NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1961. See Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1961-1968, Bureau of the Census. Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1958. Source: Department of Commerce. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS Ihe U.S. merchandise trade balance deteriorated slightly in August registering a surplus of $88 million (seasonally idjusted) as imports increased more than exports. BILLIONS OF. DOLLARS 3.5 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3.5 3.0 1.5 1.0 1968 TE i BELOW. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE.- DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period [Millions Merchandise exports Total (includDomestic exports ing reexports) 1 Food, Crude mateSeason- Unad- Total i 3 beverages, rials ally ad- justed and to- and justed fuel bacco Monthly average : 1959 1960 1961 • _ _ _ _ 1962 _ __ 1963 1964 __ 1965 1966 1967 1967: July_ Aug__ Sept. Oct__ Nov_ Dec__ 1968: Jan__ Feb__ Mar_ Apr__ May> June_ July. Aug_ 1,368 1,636 1,682 1,748 1,869 2, 141 2, 225 2, 448 2,578 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 585 549 638 394 691 603 785 773 455 888 720 759 803 916 2, 377 2,396 2, 500 2,442 2,760 2,812 2,674 2,667 2,639 2,944 2, 944 2, 682 2, 640 2,787 1,353 239 1, 620 264 1, 662 289 1,725 312 1,845 349 2, 111 387 2, 196 377 2, 412 432 2,546 392 Unadjusted 2,348 363 2,359 366 402 2,470 2,412 390 2,729 480 2, 782 425 2,645 398 2,636 407 2, 601 391 2,908 381 2, 907 366 2, 648 343 2, 605 346 2,749 399 » Total excludes Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid milita plies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program. 2 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. of dollars] Manufactured goods 252 329 322 280 315 361 356 367 393 897 1,047 1,062 1, 138 1, 188 1, 366 1, 449 1, 592 1,729 377 383 363 408 452 373 377 387 412 426 417 361 382 387 1, 582 1, 561 1,687 1, 596 1,766 1,934 1,828 1,833 1,767 2, 074 2, 076 1, 911 1, 866 1, 938 Merchandise imports General imports 2 3 Total Food, Crude bever- mateSeason- Unadages, rials ally ad- justed and to- and justed bacco fuels 1,302 1,251 1, 226 1,366 1, 428 1, 557 1, 780 2, 129 2,234 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 208 125 208 198 382 525 609 602 612 640 752 839 664 827 2,127 2, 166 2, 112 2,338 2, 442 2,431 2, 728 2,448 2, 558 2, 755 2, 815 2, 649 2,812 2,739 382 298 283 365 288 359 306 387 322 391 335 415 334 449 382 473 392 445 Unadjusted 366 397 372 444 362 413 417 445 409 437 439 478 441 506 421 444 395 487 455 466 451 488 401 499 532 458 484 484 Grossmerchandise trade Manusurplus, facseasontured goods ally adjusted 591 571 544 636 672 758 936 1, 201 1,309 66 385 456 382 441 584 444 320 344 1,272 1, 262 1, 245 1,363 1,488 1,431 1,692 1,496 1,598 1, 728 1, 772 1, 656 1,712 1,673 376 424 430 196 310 78 176 171 -158 248 -32 -80 139 88 3 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. Source: Department of Commerce. 23 U.S. EXPORTS AND IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES The surplus in the balance on goods and services increased to a level of $2 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate in the second quarter despite a smaller surplus of merchandise trade. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 30 20 20 10 10 1962 1968 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] Imports of goods and services Exports of goods and services Income on investments Period Total 1963_ 1964_ 1965 1966 1967__ . _ __ __ __ _ ___ __ 32, 37, 39, 43, 45, 432 098 196 142 756 Merchan-1 dise 22, 25, 26, 29, 30, Military sales 071 657 747 297 244 830 176 829 468 1, 240 Private Government 4, 151 4,930 5,384 5, 659 6, 235 498 456 509 593 624 Other services 5, 055 5,668 6, 229 6, 885 7, 189 Total 26, 28, 32, 38, 40, 620 688 295 063 989 Merchan-l dise 17, 014 18,648 21, 516 25, 541 26, 991 Military expenditures 2, 961 2,876 2,945 3,735 4,340 Balance on Other goods and serv- services ices 6,645 7, 164 7,834 8,787 9,658 5,812 8,409 6,901 5, 080 4,768 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1967: I II III IV 45, 484 45, 508 46, 052 45, 984 30, 644 1, 340 30, 812 1, 344 30, 504 980 29, 912 1, 292 5, 5, 6, 6, 772 564 684 916 604 660 624 612 7, 7, 7, 7, 124 128 260 252 40,312 40, 432 40, 616 42, 592 26, 744 26, 420 26, 164 28, 636 4, 288 9, 280 4, 260 9,752 4,392 10, 060 4, 416 9, 540 1968: I ._ _ II " 47, 440 49, 912 31, 696 1, 224 33, 208 1, 448 6, 176 6, 796 792 868 7, 552 7, 592 46, 016 47, 944 31, 348 33, 172 4,440 10, 228 1,424 4, 572 10, 200 1, 968 1 Adjusted from customs data for differences in timing and coverage. 24 Source: Department of Commerce. 5, 5, 5, 3, 172 076 436 392 U.S. BALANCE OF INTERNATIONAL PAYMENTS The U.S. deficit on the liquidity basis was further reduced to a $0.7 billion level (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter. On the official reserve transactions basis, a significant surplus was recorded in the second quarter reaching a $5,8 billion annual rate which more than offsets the first quarter deficit. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES BALANCE, OFFICIAL RESERVE TRANSACTIONS BASIS 1962 1968 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] U.S. private capital, net U.S. Government Period grants and capital, net l Direct investment Other longterm Shortterm -3, 578 -3, 564 -3, 370 — 3, 444 — 4, 211 -1,976 -2,328 -3,468 -3, 623 — 3, 020 1967: I __ II-.III— IV___ 1968: I -4,704 -4, 156 -3,952 -4, 032 -696 -592 -2,612 -724 -1,088 -2,604 -3, 608 -2,024 - 1, 520 — 3, 260 -1, 632 -1, 656 TT v — 4, 656 -1,496 — 564 -524 A. 1QR -9.1R _HA« A. Af\A Errors Foreign and uncapital, recorded Liquidnet l transity actions basis 2 -1,698 -784 690 -2, 103 -2, 147 689 -1,079 753 271 -256 -418 2, 532 — 1, 270 — 1, 214 3, 185 Seasonally adjusted annual 1963___ 1964. _ _ 1965. _ _ 1966___ 1967__- 1 2 Balance -2, Oil — 1, 564 -1,289 266 -3, 405 -80 544 281 I, 317 332 580 119 260 5, 460 - 1, 220 -2, 640 -2, 140 — 1, 364 QOQ 8 ftSd. _ K«n r\ «2fi — '} 1QA 366 3,460 -1, 000 -2, 020 -7, 056 4,808 -1,832 — 2, 088 -3, 224 988 3, 064 828 -3, 208 1,412 -136 -6,968 -4, 328 Includes certain special Government transactions. Equals changes in liquid liabilities to foreign official holders, other foreign holders, and changes in official reserve assets consisting of gold, convertible currencies, and the U.S. gold tranche position in the IMP. 3 Equals changes in liquid and nonliquid liabilities to foreign official holders and changes in official reserve assets consisting of gold, convertible currencies, and the U.S. gold tranche position in the IMF. 4 Includes short-term official and banking liabilities and foreign holdings of U.S. Government bonds and notes. 5 Central banks, governments, and U.S. liabilities to the IMF arising from reversible gold sales to, and gold deposits with, the U.S. -2,670 -2, 800 -1,335 -1,357 -3, 571 -244 -860 -315 -210 -532 rates Official reserve transactions basis 3 Changes in gold, convertible currenTo foreign official cies, and 5 holders To other IMF gold foreign tranche holders 6 position NonLiquid (increase liquid [-]) 1,673 -39 620 377 1, 075 318 1, 554 171 85 -18 131 1, 222 761 -1, 595 2,384 568 2, 062 1, 291 1,457 52 Quarterly totals, unadjusted Changes in selected liabilities (decrease [— I) 4 771 -709 95 1,306 765 1, 027 — 419 -375 -181 709 904 9 1QQ 7_ 1Q7 6 Private holders; includes banks and international and regional organizations; excludes IMF. 7 On June 30, U.S. reserve assets consisted of gold stock, $10,681 million (down $22 million from March 31); IMF position including gold portion of increased U.S. subscription, $903 million; convertible currencies, $2,479 million. NOTE.—Data exclude military grant-aid and U.S. subscriptions to IMF. Source: Department of Commerce. 25 PRICES CONSUMER PRICES Consumer prices rose 0.3 percent in August, somewhat less than the 0.5 percent increase in June and in July. Higher costs of housing and food accounted for most of the rise. Index, 1957-59=100 Index, 1957-59=100 1962 1968 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1957-59 = 100] All items Period 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1967: July Aug _ Sept . _ _ _ _ Get Nov Dec 1968: Jan Feb Mar Apr. Mav _ __ _ June July Aug Source: Department of Labor. 26 ___ ___ 100.7 101. 5 103. 1 104. 2 105. 4 106. 7 108. 1 109.9 113. 1 116. 3 116. 5 116. 9 117. 1 117.5 117. 8 118. 2 118.6 119. 0 119. 5 119. 9 120. 3 120.9 121. 5 121. 9 All commodities 100. 8 100. 9 101.7 102. 3 103. 2 104. 1 105. 2 106.4 109. 2 111. 2 111. 5 111. 9 112. 0 112.4 112. 6 112. 9 113.2 113. 5 113. 9 114. 3 114. 7 115. 1 115. 5 115. 9 Services Commodities Commodities less food Services All Food Rent less Nonservices Durable durable All rent 100. 2 101.9 100.0 100. 3 100. 1 99.9 99. 8 103.2 103. 6 100. 3 101. 0 101. 6 101. 2 101. 5 107.4 102. 6 106.6 101.7 100.9 101. 4 103. 1 104. 4 110. 0 102. 6 102. 0 108. 8 100. 8 103. 2 112. 1 110.9 105. 7 103. 8 103. 6 102. 8 101. 8 102. 1 104. 8 106. 8 114. 5 113. 0 103. 5 105. 1 117. 0 103. 0 105.7 115. 2 106. 4 104. 4 107.8 107.2 102. 6 117.8 108.9 120.0 108.8 105. 1 122. 3 102. 7 114. 2 109. 7 110. 4 125. 0 106. 5 112. 4 115. 2 104. 3 113. 1 127. 7 131. 1 109. 2 104. 4 112. 8 112. 4 131. 2 127. 7 116. 0 109. 1 113. 2 112. 6 104. 7 128. 2 131. 7 116. 6 109. 4 114. 1 112. 8 132. 3 104. 8 128. 7 115. 9 110. 0 114. 5 132.7 113.0 115.7 110.6 105.7 129. 1 115. 2 113. 2 133. 2 111. 1 129. 6 115. 6 106. 0 115. 2 130. 1 113. 5 133. 8 116. 2 111. 1 106. 1 111.2 130.8 134.6 117.0 106. 3 115. 1 113.7 131. 3 113. 9 135. 2 117.4 115. 6 111. 5 106. 4 132. 1 114. 2 136. 1 116. 1 111. 9 106. 6 117. 9 132. 5 114. 4 136. 6 116. 4 112. 2 106. 9 118. 3 114. 6 137. 1 117. 0 118. 8 112. 5 106. 9 133. 0 117.5 133.9 107.4 114.9 138. 1 119. 1 113.0 117. 6 134. 9 120. 0 107. 6 115. 1 139. 3 113. 2 115. 4 140. 0 107. 7 118. 1 135. 5 120. 5 113. 5 WHOLESALE PRICES Preliminary estimates of the wholesale price index show an advance of 0.4 percent in September, thus reversing the decline in August. Farm products and food prices rebounded from their August levels/ many industrial commodity prices also rose. Index, 1957-59=100 -index, 1957-59=100 90 80 80 1962 1968 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1957-59=100] Period 1958 _ __ __ 1959 1960 _ 1961 1962 1963 _ _ _ _ _ _ . _ _ 1964 _ 1965 1966 1967 1967: Aug _ _ _ ___ Sept Oct _ Nov _ _ _ Dec. _ _ __ 1968: Jan. Feb __ Mar Apr Mav June Julv_ Aug Sept* All commodities Farm products Processed foods and feeds 100. 4 100. 6 100. 7 100. 3 100. 6 100. 3 100. 5 102.5 105. 9 106. 1 106. 1 106. 2 106.1 106. 2 106. 8 107.2 108. 0 108. 2 108. 3 108.5 108.7 109.1 108. 7 109. 1 103. 6 97. 2 96. 9 96. 0 97. 7 95. 7 94. 3 98.4 105. 6 99. 7 99. 2 98. 4 97.1 96. 4 98. 9 99.0 101. 3 102. 1 102. 1 103.6 102.5 103. 9 101. 4 102. 7 102. 5 99. 9 100. 0 101. 6 102. 7 103. 3 103. 1 106. 7 113. 0 111. 7 112. 1 112. 7 111.7 110. 9 111. 5 112.4 113. 3 112. 9 112. 8 113. 6 114.6 115.9 114. 9 115. 4 * Coverage of the subgroups does not correspond exactly to coverage of this index. 2 Excludes intermediate materials for food manufacturing and manufactured animal feeds; includes, in part, grain products for further processing. Industrial commodities All industrials 1 99. 5 101. 3 101. 3 100. 8 100. 8 100. 7 101. 2 102. 5 104. 7 106. 3 106. 3 106. 5 106.8 107. 1 107. 4 107.8 108. 3 108. 6 108.8 108. 6 108.8 108.8 108. 9 109. 2 Crude materials 96. 9 102.3 98. 3 97. 2 95. 6 94. 3 97. 1 100.9 104. 5 100. 0 99. 0 99. 5 99.4 100. 6 101. 3 101.4 102.4 103. 1 101. 7 100. 5 100.6 100. 9 101. 0 Inter- Producmediate er finmate-2 ished rials goods 99. 4 101. 0 101.4 100. 1 99. 9 99. 6 100. 2 101.5 103. 6 104.8 104 6 104. 9 105.0 105. 5 105. 9 106.3 107. 0 107. 3 107. 5 107.3 107.2 107.3 107. 4 100. 2 102. 1 102. 3 102. 5 102. 9 103. 1 104. 1 105.4 108. 0 111. 5 111. 4 111. 6 112.6 113. 0 113. 4 114.0 114. 2 114. 4 114. 8 114.9 115.1 115. 2 115. 4 Consumer finished goods excluding food DurNondurable able 100. 1 99. 3 101. 3 100. 8 100. 9 101. 5 100. 5 101. 5 100. 0 101. 6 99. 5 101.9 99. 9 101. 6 99.6 102.8 100. 2 104. 8 101. 7 107. 2 101. 2 108.0 101.4 108. 0 102.8 107.8 103. 0 107.9 103. 0 108.0 103.5 108.0 103.5 108.4 103. 6 108. 6 103. 5 109. 0 103.4 109. 1 103.5 109.8 103. 3 110. 0 103. 6 109.7 NOTE.—Beginning January 1967, the indexes incorporate a revised weighting structure reflecting 1963 values of shipments. The classification structure also changed. Source: Department of Labor. 27 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS During the month ended September 1 5, prices received by farmers advanced 2 percent and prices paid less than 1 percent; the adjusted parity ratio increased 2 points to 81. Strong seasonal gains in egg and milk prices were largely responsible for the rise in prices received; partially offsetting these increases were price declines for cattle, soybeans, and chickens. Index, 1957-59=100 Index, 1957-59=100 100 PRICES RECEIVED (ALL FARM PRODUCTS) 90 90 RAT o-i/ RATI oJ/ 100 100 90 90 PARITY RATIO \ ^X,,,,u 80 /"'* V** ''<. J?"""k. 80 ""»'»..^ ''""« 70 , . I , <1 . < , 1 , r.**"X,,v i t i i . 1 i i t > i 1962 \ t i i i i 1i i i i i 1964 1963 1965 1 70 ! I ! I 1 I 1 1 1 1 1966 i 1967 1968 J/RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES, ON 1910-14=100 BASE. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Prices paid by farmers ProducLivestock All items, Family interest, living tion and items items products taxes, and wage rates Index, 1957-59=100 100 100 100 106 102 102 101 100 102 102 101 98 102 103 101 98 105 103 103 99 104 107 104 95 107 105 103 91 107 105 110 101 114 108 110 113 109 116 113 107 109 117 113 110 109 117 113 110 117 109 107 113 114 105 117 109 114 109 117 105 118 115 110 107 111 115 119 109 111 116 109 120 121 111 117 109 117 112 121 109 121 117 112 111 121 112 118 114 121 111 118 113 122 111 119 116 Prices received by farmers Period 1958 1959___ _ _ __. - _ _ _ _ 1960__ _ _ _ __ 1961 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1962 _ _ _ _ _ 1963 1964 ___ __ _ 1965 _ . _ 1966__. _ 1967___ __ _ _ 1967: Aug 15 Sept 15_ _ _ __ _ Oct 15 _ Nov 15. Dec 15_ 1968: Jan 15 __ Feb 15_ _ Mar 15 _ __ Apr 15 _ _May 15_ June 1 5 _ _ _ _ _ _ July 15 Aug 15 Sept 15_ __ _ All farm products 104 100 99 99 101 100 98 103 110 104 105 105 104 104 105 105 106 107 107 108 107 108 108 110 Crops 100 99 99 102 104 107 107 104 106 100 99 98 101 102 103 103 102 103 104 105 103 99 101 103 1 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, Interest, taxes, and wage rates on 1910-14=100 base. 28 Parity ratio * Actual 85 81 80 80 80 78 76 77 80 74 75 74 73 73 74 74 74 74 73 73 73 73 74 75 Ad j usted2 88 82 81 83 83 81 80 82 86 79 80 79 78 78 79 79 80 79 79 79 79 79 79 81 2 The adjusted parity ratio reflects Government payments made directly to farmers. Source: Department of Agriculture. MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS iVIONEY SUPPLY The $0.7 billion September decline in the seasonally adjusted money supply approximately offset the August increase. Following the unusually large August increase, time deposits rose an additional $2.9 billion in September. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 180 180 140 140 TIME DEPOSITS AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 100 100 60 60 1962 1964 1963 1965 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period 1962: 1963: 1964: 1965: 1966: 1967: 1967: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec July A u g __ Sept. Oct__ Nov. ___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Dec 1968: Jan. Feb _ Mar Apr Mav June__ July Aug _ Sept *_ _ „_ _ _ 1967 1968 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures, billions of dollars] U.S. Money supply Money supply GovCurCurernTime Time DeDerency rency ment de- 1 de- l mand mand Total outoutTotal demand posits posits dedeside side deposits posits banks banks posits l Seasonally adjusted Unadjusted 96.7 31.2 5.6 147.4 30.6 120.3 116.8 97.8 151.6 111.0 32.5 124. 1 5. 1 153.0 120.5 112.2 33. 1 157.3 34.2 125. 2 159.3 129. 1 5.5 35.0 125. 1 126.6 164.0 145.2 36.3 4.6 166.8 130.5 37.1 134.9 146. 6 172.0 156.9 170.4 132. 1 3.4 38.3 39. 1 136.7 158. 1 175.8 182. 0 5. 0 40. 4 140. 9 41. 2 145. 9 181. 3 183. 5 187. 1 175.2 136.2 39. 4 138.4 5.7 174.8 39.6 177.8 175.7 177.8 177.2 136.2 178.9 39.5 4.3 39.6 139. 4 175.8 179.0 139.4 5.0 179. 1 39.7 179.4 39.7 138.5 178.3 180.2 180.4 140.2 39.9 40.0 140. 5 6.3 180. 6 180.5 181.3 181.0 141.0 141.9 5.3 40. 4 40. 1 182. 0 182.4 182. 0 41. 2 5.0 40. 4 140. 9 145. 9 183. 5 187. 1 181. 3 183. 7 5.0 182. 3 40. 5 147. 1 40. 6 184. 1 141. 7 187. 6 7.2 141.9 141.1 40.7 185.2 182.7 181.4 40.3 185.8 187.7 141. 2 41. 1 142. 2 40. 7 6. 6 183.4 182. 0 186. 7 41. 4 41. 1 4. 2 184. 3 144. 5 143. 0 187.9 187. 1 185. 6 188.4 41.3 141. 1 6.4 186. 1 41. 6 144. 5 187. 6 182. 5 188.6 5.4 42. 0 41. 9 143.6 187. 4 145. 4 188. 2 185. 6 42.2 189.4 147.2 187.2 144.8 5.7 190.4 42.4 190.8 194. 3 42. 5 42. 6 144. 3 5.4 190. 2 147.7 193. 8 186. 8 42. 8 42. 8 145.8 196.3 5.8 189. 5 146. 7 188. 6 196. 7 i Deposits at all commercial banks. NOTE.—Effective June 9, 1966, balances accumulated for payment of personal loans (about $1.1 billion) are excluded from time deposits and from loans at all commercial banks. 1966 Data include Alaska and Hawaii. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 SELECTED LIQUID ASSETS HELD BY THE PUBLIC Seasonally adjusted public holdings of demand deposits and currency and of short-term U.S. Government securitie. showed little change during August and September, while time deposits and savings and loan shares showed fairly substantial gains. [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted! Total selected liquid assets End of period 1961 1962__ 1963 1964 1965 _ .. 1966 1967 _ _ _ _ 1967: Aug Sept .__ Oct . Nov Dec 1968: Jan Feb __ Mar _ Apr Mav June__ .lulv r __ _ _ Aug " Sopt ''__ _ __ _ . 424. 6 459.0 495. 4 530. 5 573.1 601.5 650. 5 630. 3 635. 7 638. 1 645. 9 650. 5 655. 9 658. 7 665.7 664.6 667.9 670. 5 676. 6 679. 7 683. 8 Demand deposits and currency 1 142. 6 144. 8 149. 6 156. 7 164. 1 168. 6 180. 7 174. 2 176. 3 175.8 177. 9 180. 7 179.6 178. 3 181. 8 181. 1 183. 9 186.8 186. 2 186.0 186.3 Time deposits Commercial banks 82.5 98. 1 112.9 127. 1 147. 1 159.3 183. 1 177. 2 17a 1 180. 1 183. 8 183. 1 186. 5 187.6 187. 9 187.6 187.7 187. 9 191. 5 194. 0 195.9 1 Agrees in concept with money supply, p. 29, except for deduction of demand deposits hold by mutual savings banks and savings and loan associations. Data for2 last Wednesday of month. Excludes holdings of Government agencies and trust funds, domestic commercial and m u t u a l savings banks, Federal Reserve Banks, and beginning February 1%0, savings and loan association. 30 Mutual savings banks 38. 3 41.4 44. 5 49. 0 52. 6 55.2 60.3 58.7 59. 1 59. 5 59. 9 60.3 3 60.6 61.1 61. 4 61. 7 62. 1 62. 2 62. 8 63.0 63.3 Postal Savings System 0.6 .5 .5 .4 .3 .1 .1 .1 Savings and loan shares U.S. Government savings2 bonds 70. 5 79.8 90. 9 101.4 109.8 113.4 123. 9 121. 0 122. 5 123. 0 123. 7 123. 9 3 123. 6 124.6 125. 9 126. 0 126. 5 4 126. 8 127. 2 128. 1 129. 5 47.4 47. 6 49. 0 49. 9 50.5 50.9 51. 9 51. 3 51.4 51. 4 51. 5 51. 9 51. 9 51.8 51. 8 51. 8 51. 8 51. 9 51. 9 52. 0 52. 0 U.S. Government securities maturing within one year 2 42. 6 46. 8 48. 1 46. 1 48. 6 53.9 50. 5 47.8 48. 2 48. 3 49. 1 50. 5 53.6 55. 4 57. 0 56.5 55. 9 54. 9 56. 9 56. 6 56.9 s Reflects conversion of a savings and loan association with share capital of about $175 million to a mutual sayings bank. 4 Reflects liquidation of two savings and loan associations. NOTE See Note D 29 „ ' ^ , ,' , , -^ , , „ „ , Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. LOANS, INVESTMENTS, DEBITS, AND RESERVES flowing large gains in July and August, total bank credit (seasonally adjusted) increased an additional $4.3 illion in September. Free reserves fell slightly to a net borrowed position of $215 million. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 400 ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 350 100 100 INVESTMENTS IN U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 50 50 INVESTMENTS IN OTHER SECURITIES 1968 1962 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Bank Weekly debits reporting outside large commercial New York Total Investments City (232 banks Loans, loans excluding centers) , and seasonally interU.S. Gov- Other Commercial adjusted investsecuri- and indus- annual ernment bank ments securities ties trial loans rates l Billions of dollars 209.6 120.4 65. 3 23. 9 32.9 1,882 64. 6 29. 2 2, 021 134.0 35.2 227.9 246.2 61. 7 35. 0 2, 199 38.8 149.6 1 267.2 38. 7 42. 1 60. 7 2, 706 167. 7 3 294.4 3,018 192.6 57. 1 44. 8 53. 1 48.7 208.2 53.6 8,421 310. 5 60.7 59.7 8, 740 346. 5 225. 4 61. 4 65. 8 8, 882 336.6 218.0 61. 3 62.2 57. 3 57. 7 61. 4 63.4 3, 847 339. 1 219.9 342.0 221.4 61.9 58.6 63. 1 3, 891 3, 897 61.2 60.4 222.7 344.3 63.7 59. 7 8, 897 346. 5 225.4 61. 4 65. 8 60.0 62.4 349. 5 227. 1 65. 0 4,046 62.1 62.7 353.6 228.9 65. 1 4,047 4,021 352. 1 63.6 228.7 59. 8 66. 5 60. 0 4,215 354. 4 230. 9 63. 4 67. 6 4,243 60.7 63.5 67. 1 356.4 232. 1 60. 5 63. 4 357. 3 233. 4 69. 2 4, 354 64.2 69. 2 62.6 237.7 364.6 4, 487 65. 4 68. 1 240. 3 63. 4 369. 1 4, 442 63. 5 66. 9 69. 4 373. 4 243. 1 All member banks All commercial banks (seasonally adjusted data) End of period 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 _ 1967 1967: Aue Sept Oct Nov Dec 1968: Jan Feb Mar _ Apr * May pp June p . July p Aug Sept" 1 Debits during period to demand deposit accounts except interbank and U.S. Government. New series beginning January 1964. 2 Averages of daily figures. Annual data are for December. 3 New series; see Federal Reserve Bulletin, March 1967. NOTE.—Data for all commercial banks revised beginning 1959; see Federal Reserve Bulletin, August 1968. Effective June 1966, balances accumulated for pay- Total reserves 20, 118 20, 040 20, 746 21,609 22, 719 23, 830 25, 260 23, 791 24, 200 24, 60S 24, 740 25, 260 25, 834 25, 610 25, 580 25, 546 25, 505 25, 713 26, 001 26, 069 25, 990 2 Borrowings at Free Excess Federal reserves Reserve reserves Banks Millions of dollars 149 568 572 304 327 536 411 243 452 454 392 557 345 238 89 387 90 358 126 286 403 133 238 345 237 381 361 399 671 356 270 683 746 420 351 692 299 525 565 379 515 300 Source: Hoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 419 268 209 168 o -165 107 298 268 160 270 107 144 38 -315 -413 -326 -341 -226 -186 -215 31 CONSUMER AND REAL ESTATE CREDIT Seasonally adjusted instalment credit outstanding increased by a record $853 million in August, and total consumer credit outstanding increased substantially more than seasonally. BILLIONS Of DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS END OF MONTH 100 100 TOTAL CONSUMER CREDIT OUTSTANDING \ 80 80 60 60 INSTALMENT CREDIT 20 20 \ NONINSTALMENT CREDIT 1962 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 1968 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] Consumer credit outstanding (end of period; Consumer instalment credit extended Mortgage unadjusted) and repaid (seasonally adjusted) debt outstanding Instalment Automobile paper Total Period nonfarm, NonAutomo1- to 4Total Total l Personal instal-2 Extended Repaid Extended Repaid bile family ment paper loans houses 3 1959 51, 542 39, 245 16, 420 15, 579 130, 900 9, 386 12, 297 42, 603 48, 052 17, 779 1960 42, 832 56, 028 16, 384 17, 688 10, 480 45, 972 17, 654 141, 300 13, 196 49, 560 1961 57, 678 16, 472 43, 527 11, 256 17, 223 16, 007 14, 151 47, 700 48, 396 153, 100 1962 63, 164 48, 034 19, 540 12, 643 19, 796 17, 478 166, 500 15, 130 55, 126 50, 620 1963 70, 461 54, 158 14, 464 22, 292 22, 433 19, 400 16, 303 61,295 55, 171 182,200 1964 78, 442 21, 676 24, 435 60, 548 25, 195 16, 228 17, 894 61, 121 67, 505 197,600 1965 _. 87, 884 24, 267 68, 565 28, 843 18, 354 27, 914 19,319 67, 495 75, 508 212, 900 1966 _ 94, 786 74, 656 30, 961 26, 373 20, 110 28, 491 20, 130 72, 805 78, 896 223, 600 1967 99, 228 77, 946 21, 690 21, 282 27, 221 26, 985 31, 197 77, 973 81, 263 236, 000 1967: July 95, 115 2, 266 2,228 75, 348 31, 364 20, 666 19, 767 6, 776 6, 551 Aug_ _ _ 95, 684 2, 285 75, 889 2, 240 31, 455 20, 936 19, 795 6,929 6, 585 2, 322 Sept 21, 087 95, 886 76, 039 31, 296 2,280 232, 000 19, 847 6,689 6,973 Oct 96, 094 76, 223 21, 198 2,321 31, 237 19, 871 6,942 2,301 6, 631 21, 375 Nov_ 96, 802 76, 680 31,217 2, 305 20, 122 7,032 6,614 2,240 Dec _ 99, 228 77, 946 21, 690 21, 282 2,250 31, 197 6, 652 2,306 7, 035 236, 000 2,302 1968: Jan 77, 467 21, 631 98, 225 31, 061 2,437 20, 758 7,089 6,691 97, 672 77, 327 21, 752 Feb_ 31, 137 2,519 2, 308 20, 345 6,679 7,245 Mar_ 97, 875 77, 581 21, 873 20, 294 6,814 2, 567 2,330 31, 380 7,380 239, 300 Apr_ __ 99, 142 31,766 78, 345 22, 128 7,342 2,517 2,339 20, 797 6, 800 May 100, 275 79, 270 32, 240 22, 378 2, 343 21, 005 6, 869 2, 578 7,479 80, 363 32, 774 22, 686 June_ __ 101, 467 21, 104 6, 884 2,574 2,337 7,516 243, 400 Julv__ 102, 439 22, 930 81, 308 33, 253 21, 131 7, 001 2,669 2,405 7, 683 Aug ___ _ 103, 775 2,352 2,679 82, 455 33, 684 23, 311 21, 320 7, 788 6,935 * Also includes other consumer goods paper, and repair and modernization loans, not shown separately. 2 Consists of single-payment loans, charge accounts, and service credit. 3 End of period, unadjusted. 32 NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning January and August 1959, respectively. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Home Loan Bank Board. BOND YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES Bond yields were relatively stable in September/ but Treasury bill rates averaged higher than in August. Most yields rose somewhat during the first part of October. PERCENT PER ANNUM 7 PERCENT PER ANNUM 7 CORPORATE Aaa BONDS (MOODY'S) 1962 SOURCE: 1968 SEE TABIE BELOW Period 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967. 1967: Aug Sept _ _ Oct Nov Dec _ _ _ 1968: Jan _ _ Feb _ Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Week ended: 1968: Sept 13— 20— 27— Oct 4__ 11— 18— COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] High-grade U.S. Government security yields municipal 3-month bonds 3—5 year Taxable 2 Treasury 3 (Standard4 & issues bonds bills i Poor's) 2. 378 3.60 3. 90 3.46 2. 778 3. 57 3. 95 3. 18 3. 157 3.72 4. 00 3.23 3. 549 4. 06 4. 15 3. 22 3. 954 4.22 4.21 3. 27 4.881 5. 16 4. 65 3. 82 4, 321 4. 85 5.07 3. 98 4.275 5. 28 4. 95 4. 03 4. 451 5.40 4. 99 4. 15 4. 588 5.52 5. 19 4. 31 4.762 5.73 5.44 4.36 5.012 5. 72 5. 36 4. 49 5. 081 5. 53 4. 34 5. 18 4.969 5.59 5. 16 4.39 5. 144 5. 77 5. 39 4. 56 5. 365 5.69 4. 41 5. 28 5. 621 5. 95 5. 40 4. 56 5. 544 5.71 5. 23 4. 56 5.382 5.44 5.09 4.36 5. 095 5. 32 5. 04 4, 31 5. 202 5.30 f>. 09 4. 44 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 246 218 151 182 277 345 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 36 27 28 34 43 5. 12 5. 08 5. 09 r>. 15 5. 25 2 i Bate on new issues within period. Selected note and bond issues. 3 April 1963 to date, bonds due or callable 10 years and after. *8 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. Data for first of the month, based on the maximum permissible interest rate 6J£ percent beginning early May 1968) and 30-year mortgages paid in 15 years. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 43 45 40 45 55 Corporate bonds ( Moody?s) Aaa Baa 4. 35 4. 33 4. 26 4. 40 4.49 5. 13 5. 51 5.62 5. 65 5.82 6.07 6. 19 6. 17 6. 10 6. 11 6. 21 6. 27 6.28 6.24 6. 02 5.97 5. 08 5. 02 4.86 4. 83 4. 87 5. 67 6. 23 6. 33 6.40 6.52 6.72 6. 93 6. 84 6.80 6.85 6.97 7. 03 7.07 6.98 6. 82 6.79 5. 95 5. 98 6.00 6. 02 6. 06 6. 80 6.79 6.79 6. 78 6. 79 Prime FHA commercial new home paper, mortgage 4-6 yields 5 months 5. 80 2. 97 5. 61 3.26 5.47 3.55 5. 45 3.97 5. 46 4.38 6. 29 5.55 6.55 5. 10 o. 00 6. 53 5.00 6. 60 6. 63 5.07 6.65 5.28 5. 56 6.77 5.60 6. 81 6.81 5.50 5. 64 6. 78 5. 81 6. 83 6. 18 6.94 6.25 7.52 6.19 7. 42 5. 88 5. 82 7. 35 5.88 5. 80 5. 75 5. 75 5.75 Sources: Treasury Department, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Housing Administration, Standard & Poor's Corporation, and Moody's Investors Service. 33 COMMON STOCK PRICES, YIELD, AND EARNINGS The common stock price index rose steadily during September and early October. Index, 1941-43 =10 Inde x, 1941-43=10 110 AA 100 ^~p* v /-"-"M^T^i \ vy^ / 90 80 s^S^V \r / 100 90 COMPOSITE PRICE INDEX FO K 500 COMMON STOCKS .s*^~^ ,f 110 WEEKLY- MONTHLY 80 70 70 60 60 ..... i . 1 1 .i , , , , ,1 1 , , 1 1 i i... i .... . ^^yKTV^ LLJ.I i 1 i i i i_i_ LJ_I_L_I LJ , i I_L j _ i i LL-LLi , L , PE KENT . PERCENT RATIO RATIO 25 25 PRICE/EARNINGS RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS 20 20 ^O—i — \ 15 10 A i Y ^-""""'""'"'""i ^ i 1962 f f i ! 1 ' ! i 1 1964. 1963 Period _ _ . _ _ __ Sept. Oct. Nov Dec 1968: Jan Feb Mar Apr May. June __ July_ Aug Sept Week ended: 1968: Aug 30__ Sept 6 13 20 27 Oct 4 11 U VA J i 15 | i 1966 1965 _ . i 1967 1968 t N 10 N COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total Total 62. 38 69.87 81. 37 88.17 85.26 91.93 95. 81 95. 66 92.66 95. 30 95. 04 90.75 89. 09 95.67 97. 87 100. 53 100. 30 98.11 101. 34 65.54 73.39 86. 19 93.48 91. 08 99. 18 103. 84 104. 16 100. 90 103. 91 103. 11 98.33 96. 77 104. 42 107. 02 109. 73 109. 16 106.77 110. 53 98. 100. 100. 101. 102. 103. 103. 107. 109. 109. 110. 111. 112. 112. 84 32 84 50 38 15 48 63 36 94 75 73 53 96 Price index l Industrials Capital Consumers' goods goods 1941-43=10 54.96 58. 15 63.30 62. 28 76. 35 73. 84 81. 94 85. 26 84.86 74. 10 96. 96 79. 18 104. 17 84 62 106. 64 83.60 80.47 103. 58 81.92 106. 41 102. 87 81. 06 77.99 98. 13 77.49 96. 32 84. 79 104. 08 87.75 106. 86 89. 04 110. 65 108. 12 88.38 104.92 85.73 107. 57 88. 46 4 105. 106. 107. 107. 109. 108. 109. 1 Includes 500 common stocks; 425 are industrials; 55 are public utilities, and 20 are railroads. Weekly indexes for capital and consumer goods are Wednesday figures: all other weekly indexes are averages of daily figures. 2 Aggregate cash dividends (based on latest known annual rate) divided by the aggregate monthly market value of the stocks in the group. Annual yields 34 ' r^^--*^—- -'I SOURCE: STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1967: .x, ^-— 01 25 19 65 20 03 70 4 85. 86. 4 87. 4 89. 4 90. 4 90. 4 90. 96 63 79 23 19 54 81 Railroads Dividend yield 2 (percent) 59. 16 64.99 69. 91 76.08 68. 21 68. 10 67.45 64.93 63.48 64. 61 68. 02 65.61 62. 62 63. 66 62. 92 65. 21 67.55 66.60 66. 75 30. 56 37.58 45.46 46.78 46. 34 46. 72 49. 27 46.28 42.95 43. 46 43.38 42.35 41. 68 44. 79 48. 00 51. 72 51.01 48.80 51. 11 3.37 3.17 3.01 3.00 3.40 3.20 3.07 3.07 3.18 3. 09 3. 13 3.28 3. 34 3. 12 3. 07 3. 00 3.00 3.09 3. 01 66. 66. 66. 66. 66. 66. 66. 49. 31 49. 87 50. 50 51.01 52. 48 54. 34 54. 11 Public utilities 46 77 90 69 64 96 83 4 4 4 4 4 4 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. Price/ earnings ratio 3 16. 68 17.62 18.08 17. 08 14.92 17.54 17.81 17. 41 16. 40 17.23 08 04 02 00 97 96 94 are averages of monthly data. Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 3 Ratio of price index for last day in quarter to quarterly earnings (seasonally adjusted annual rate). Annual ratios are averages of quarterly data. * Tuesday prices. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation. FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS, EXPENDITURES, AND NET LENDING In fiscal 1968, receipts totaled $1 53.5 billion and expenditures $173.0 billion, yielding a receipt-expenditure account deficit of $19.5 billion. Including net lending, the total deficit was $25.4 billion. In the first 2 months of the current fiscal year, the total deficit was $5.7 billion/ a year earlier it was $9.3 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 1958 1959 1960 ,1961 1963 1964 FISCAL'YEARS 1962 J/RECEIPTS LESS EXPENDITURES AND NET LENDING. ^/PRELIMINARY. J^ESTIMATE. SOURCES: TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND BUREAU OF THE BUDGET 1965 1966 1967 196'8-^ 1969^ COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Budget receipts, expenditures, and net lending Period Receipt-expenditure account Receipts Fiscal year: 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 __ _ __ ___ 1964 __ 1965 1966 1967 1968 2* 1969 Cumulative totals, first 2 months: Fiscal year 1968 Fiscal year 1969___ 1 2 As Expenditures Surplus or deficit (-) 79.6 79. 0 92. 5 94. 4 99. 7 106. 6 112. 7 116. 9 130. 9 149. 6 153. 5 179. 4 81. 2 89. 7 90.4 96. 7 104 7 111. 5 118. 1 116.7 130.7 153.2 173. 0 182.3 -1. 6 -10. 6 2. 1 -2.3 -5. 0 -4. 9 -5. 4 .1 .2 -3. 6 — 19. 5 -2.9 20. 4 24. 9 29. 1 30. 1 -8. 7 -5. 2 published in the Treasury Bulletin, beginning July 1968. Estimate, as published in Summer Review of the 1969 Budget, September 1968, Bureau of the Budget. NOTE.—Budget receipts and expenditures, net lending, and the public debt are based on The Budget of the United States Government, 1969, which shows data Loan account Net lending Total surplus or deficit (-) Public debt and agency securities (end of period) l Total Held by the public 1. 5 2. 7 1.9 1.2 2.4 — .1 .5 1.2 3.8 5.2 5.9 2. 1 -3. 1 -13. 3 .2 -3. 5 — 7. 4 -4. 7 -6.0 -1. 1 -3.7 -8. 8 25. 4 -5.0 289. 8 293. 0 295. 4 306. 1 313. 9 320.4 326. 6 333.3 344.7 372.0 234. 9 237. 0 238. 5 248. 3 254. 3 257.5 261. 6 264. 6 267. 5 290. 6 .6 .5 -9. 3 -5. 7 354. 4 380. 2 275. 7 297.5 on the basis of budget concepts adopted pursuant to the recommendations of the President's Commission on Budget Concepts. As soon as all of the data are available on a monthly basis, the table will be expanded to include them. Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget. 35 FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In fiscal 1968, individual income taxes increased by $7.2 billion, corporation income taxes declined by $5.3 billion, and other receipts increased by $2.0 billion. Military outlays of the Department of Defense rose by $9.7 billion. In the first 2 months of the current fiscal year, receipts were $4.5 billion over a year earlier while expenditures were up $0.9 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 100 NONDEFENSE 60 40 NATIONAL DEFENSE" 20 N 1958 1959 1960 1962 1961 1965 1963 1964 FISCAL YEARS .I/PRELIMINARY. J/ESTIMATE. SOURCES: TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND BUREAU OF THE BUDGET. 1966 1967 1968 J/ COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Expenditures and net lending Receipts National defense Period Fiscal year: 1958 1959 1960__ ___ _ ___ 1961 _ ._ 1962 1963___ _ _ . _ 1964 _ 1965 . 1966 1967 196$ 2P 1969 Cumulative totals, first 2 months: Fiscal vear 196S___ Fiscal vear 1969. __ Total Individual Corporation income income taxes taxes Other 79. 6 79. 0 92. 5 94.4 99. 7 106.6 112. 7 116.9 130. 9 149. 6 153. 5 179. 4 34. 7 36.7 40.7 41. 3 45. 6 47. 6 48. 7 48. 8 55. 4 61.5 68. 7 81. 8 20. 1 17.3 21. 5 21. 0 20. 5 21. 6 23. 5 25. 5 30. 1 34. 0 28. 7 34. 8 24. 8 25. 0 30. 3 32. 1 33. 6 37. 4 40. 5 42. 6 45. 4 54. 1 56. 1 62. 8 82. 7 92. 4 92. 3 97.9 107. 0 111. 3 118. 7 118. 0 134. 6 158. 4 178. 9 184. 4 20. 4 24. 9 9. 2 11. 4 1. 4 2. 7 9. 8 10. 8 29 7 30. 6 1 Expenditure account. 2 Estimate, as published in Summer Review of the 1969 Budget, September 1968, Bureau of the Budget. NOTE. — Receipts and outlays in this table are based on The Budget of the United States Government, 1969, which shows data on the basis of budget-concepts 36 Total Total 44. 5 46.7 45. 8 47. 5 51. 2 52. 2 53. 7 49. 6 56. 8 70. 1 Department of Defense,l military 39. 1 41. 2 41. 2 43. 2 46. 8 48.3 49. 8 46. 2 54. 4 67. 5 77. 2 Interna- Health, tional labor, affairs and and welfare finance 3. 3 3. 2 3. 1 3.4 4. 6 4. 2 4. 2 4. 2 4. 4 4. 6 15. 8 18. 0 19. 1 22.4 24.0 25. 7 27. 2 28. 2 33.2 40. 1 Other 19. 2 24. 5 24. 2 24. 7 27. 3 29. 2 33. 7 36. 0 40. 1 43. 6 12. 9 12 2 adopted pursuant to the recommendations of the President's Commission on Budget Concepts. As soon as all of the data are available on a monthly basis, the table will be expanded to include them. Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget. SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS cording to current estimates/ Federal receipts rose $5 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter and expenditures $6% billion, yielding a deficit of about $101/4 billion. Preliminary estimates indicate that receipts rose substantially more than expenditures in the third quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 140 120 +20 SURPLUS - H n v® m -20 DEFICIT 1 1 1962 1 p-j t~TI FISH E££2 t 1 I 1963 y%& m t%3 "** pll PI fcwftj tfW M i i i 1 rrr^ tm PS? 1 M "** I 1 1965 1964 1 1 1 1 1 1 1967 1966 ! f -20 1968 CALENDAR YEARS 1/PPFI 1UIVJAPY SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Government expenditures Federal Government receipts Period Fiscal year : 1964 1965 1966___ 1967 1968 l Calendar year : 1964 _ 1965— 1966 1967 1967: I__ II__ III_ IV_ 1968: I__ II _ III" Indirect ContriPersonal Corpobusiness butions rate tax and for Total nontax profits tax and Total tax nontax socialinreceipts accruals accruals suran ce Surplus or Subsidies deficit Grantsless Purin-aid (-), current Net chases Trans- to State and interest surplus income of goods fer payand local paid of Govt. product and ments enter- accounts governservices prises ments 1 1 5. 5 120.5 133.0 147.8 160. 8 50. 7 51.3 57.5 64.5 71.2 25. 7 27.8 31.2 31.4 34. 6 15. 6 16.9 15.7 16.0 17.1 23. 5 24.6 28.5 35.8 37.9 116. 9 118.6 131.9 154.3 172.7 65. 7 64.3 71.7 84.9 95.5 29. 5 30.5 34. 1 39.4 44. 6 9.8 10.9 12.7 14.8 17.2 8. 1 8.6 9.0 9.9 11.0 3. 8 4.1 4.4 5.4 4.4 — 1. 4 2.1 1. 1 -6.7 -11.9 115.0 124.7 143.0 151.2 148. 1 148.2 152.2 156.4 166.6 171. 8 48.6 53.8 61.7 67.3 66.0 65. 1 68.2 69.7 72.0 74.9 83. 5 26.4 29.3 32.4 30.9 30.3 30.5 30.6 32.4 37.0 38.2 16. 1 16.5 15.8 16.2 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.4 17.0 17.5 17.8 23.8 25.1 33. 1 36.8 35.9 36.5 37.0 37.9 40.5 41.2 42. 2 118. 1 123.5 142.4 163.6 159.3 161.5 165. 1 168.6 175. 1 181.9 184. 8 65.2 66.9 77.4 90.6 87.4 90.0 91.3 93.5 97. 1 100.0 101. 1 29.9 32.5 35.7 42.3 41.5 42. 1 42.9 42.7 45. 1 47.7 48. 8 10.4 11. 1 14.4 15.7 15. 1 14.6 15.9 17.0 17.7 18.3 18.4 8.3 8.7 9.5 10.3 10.2 9.9 10.2 10.7 11.3 11.8 12. 1 4.2 4.3 5.4 4.8 5. 1 4.8 4.8 4.6 3.9 4. 1 4. 3 -3.0 1.2 .7 -12.4 -11.2 — 13. 3 — 12.9 — 12. 2 -8.6 -10.2 1 Preliminary, based mostly on seasonally adjusted data; not strictly cornarable with preceding data. NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960. Source: Department of Commerce. 37 UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE POSTAGE AND «^EES PAID U.S GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS WASHINGTON, D.C. 2O4O2 OFFICIAL BUSINESS First-Class Mail Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING The Nation's Income, Expenditure, and Saving Gross National Product or Expenditure National Income Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force « Selected Measures of Unemployment and Part-Time Employment Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Weekly Hours of Work—Selected Industries Average Hourly and Weekly Earnings—Selected Industries PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Production of Selected Manufactures Weekly Indicators of Production New Construction New Housing Starts and Applications for Financing Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and New Orders Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. Exports and Imports of Goods and Services U.S. Balance of International Payments PRICES Consumer Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Supply Selected Liquid Assets Held by the Public Bank Loans, Investments, Debits, and Reserves Consumer and Real Estate Credit Bond Yields and Interest Rates Common Stock Prices, Yield, and Earnings FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Budget Receipts, Expenditures, and Net Lending Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis Page 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 NOTE.—Detail in these tables will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Data for Alaska and Hawaii are not included unless specifically noted. Unless otherwise stated, all dollar figures are in current prices. P Indicates preliminary and not available. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office. Washington. D.C.. 20402 Price 25 cents per copy; per $3 year; $4 foreign. Domestic air mail $0.10 additional per year. 38 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1968