Full text of Economic Indicators : October 1950
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}lst Congress, 2d Session Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1950 JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT (Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming, Chairman EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey, Via Chairman FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania JOHN J. SPARKMAN, Alabama PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio FRANK BUCHANAN, Pennsylvania JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts THEODOBE J. KREPS, Staff Director GHOVER W. ENSLET, Associate Staff Director JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS (Created pursuant to Sec. 4 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) LEON H. KEYSERLING, Chairman JOHN D. CLARK ROY BLOUGH [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION fS. J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" TLesolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joini Committee on the Economic Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators,' and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; twc copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Join1 Committee on the Economic Report; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents fo distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printe for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Graphics Unit, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce 11 Contents THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY The Nation's Economic Budget Gross National Product Page 1 2 PRICES Consumers' Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers Stock Prices 3 4 5 6 EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES Labor Force Nonagricultural Employment—Selected Industries Average Weekly Hours—Selected Industries Average Hourly Earnings—Selected Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Selected Industries Work Stoppages 7 8 9 10 11 12 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Weekly Production—Selected Indicators Production of Selected Manufactures New Construction New Housing Starts Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment New Corporate Security Issues Inventories and Sales Merchandise Exports and Imports 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 PURCHASING POWER National Income Corporate Profits Personal Income Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving Personal Consumption Expenditures , Per Capita Disposable Income Farm Income Consumer Credit 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE Bank Loans and Investments Money Supply Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public — 30 31 32 111 THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET Consumer incomes and expenditures both increased sharply in 3rd quarter. Business income declined mainly because the increase in inventory valuation adjustment more than offset the rise in corporate profits. Business expenditures increased slightly. The government account changed from a deficit to a surplus. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 50 100 1 1 T CONSUMERS I960, SECOND QUARTER 1950, THIRD QUARTER 1950, SECOND QUARTER 1950, THIRD QUARTER INTERNATIONAL 1950, SECOND QUARTER I960, THIRD QUARTER GOVERNMENT {Federal, slate,and local) 1950, SECOND QUARTER Transfer payments 1950, THIRD QUARTER EXCESS OF RECEIPTS l+), EXPENDITURES (-) I960, SECOND QUARTER -25 0 I 1950, THIRD QUARTER 25 I -25 r 0 25 I CONSUMERS BUSINESS INTERNATIONAL GOVERNMENT (Federal, state,and local) ^ TRANSFER PAYMENTS ARE INCLUDED IN RECEIPTS OR EXPENDITURES OF THE SEPARATE ACCOUNTS BUT NOT IN THE TOTAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT, NOTE: SEE PACE 2 FOR THE NATIONS ECONOMIC BUDGET TOTAL (GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT) SOURCE: ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JULY 1950, APPENDIX A. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT Gross national product rose $12 billion (annual rate), or 4.5 percent, between 2nd and 3rd quarters of 950. Consumption expenditures rose 6 percent, government purchases of goods and services 4 percent, ond business investment 1 percent. Net foreign investment continued to drop. BILLIONS O'F DOl-LARS BILLIO NS OF DOLLARS 300 300 ANNUAL RATES. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL TOTALS 250 y 200 150 100 250 /— -/ XRO >S r« //' ^ / 50 \ NATIONAL. PRODUCT 200 -•"' or AL /7 100 s 'RIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 50 1 0 <<6":. . . •"•• / 1 4 0 1 1 42 1 1 4 4 ^ N;OVE m WENT ^^_ . ^NET -50 ISO CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES 1 1 '46 1 1 4 8 •a =iEIGN 1 PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES^ -^ 1 5 0 ^ . - , —. 0 0 INVESTMENT^ 3 1 4 1 1948 1 1 1 1 1 £ 3 4 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 1949 1950 -50 2 1951 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ecoMOMIC flovisras [Billions of dollars] Government Personal Gross private Total gross consumppurchases of Net foreign domestic national goods and tion expendinvestment investment product services itures Period 1929 67.5 111. 6 146.9 165. 6 177. 4 178.8 91. 3 213.7 211. 1 233.3 259. 1 255. 6 1944 194fi 1947 1948 1949 9.9 7.7 28.7 30.2 43. 1 33.0 0.9 .1 4.6 8.9 1.9 .4 13. 1 96. 5 30.9 28.6 36.6 43. 3 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1949: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1950: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter ' ._ __ 258. 8 255.2 254. 4 253. 8 177.4 178. 4 179.0 180.6 37.5 31.3 32. 1 31.2 1.0 1.3 .1 -.7 42.9 44.3 43. 2 42.8 262. 5 269.9 282.0 182.4 184.5 195.0 40. 5 45.9 46.5 -1.9 —2.0 -2.5 41.4 41.4 43.0 1 Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. PRICES CONSUMERS' PRICES Despite a seasonal drop in food prices, consumers* prices os a whole rose slightly in August because of gains in all other categories. The increases in apparel end housefurnishing prices were substantial. PERCENT OF 1935*39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE i 220 220 r-r, , , , i i 1939 4O 41 42 43 44 45 46 17 48 _j } i_|_ I I ( 49 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF IABOR [1935-39=100] Period 1940 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average,. ;. 1949 monthly average 1949: July 15 .. August 15 September 15 October 15 November 15 December 15 1950: Januarv 15 February 15 _ March 15 ._ ... April 15 .... Mav 15 .. June 15 . July 15 August 151 All items 100. 2 116. 5 123.6 125. 5 128.4 139.3 159.2 171. 2 169. 1 168. 5 168 8 169.6 168 5 168 6 167. 5 166 9 160. 5 1 67. 0 167. 3 168 6 170 2 1""2. 5 173 0 Food 96.6 123.9 138.0 136. 1 139. 1 159.6 193.8 210.2 201. 9 201 7 202 6 204.2 200 6 200 8 197 3 196 0 194 8 196. 0 196. 6 200 3 204 6 210. 0 '209 0 Apparel 101. 7 124.2 129. 7 138. 8 145.9 160. 2 185.8 198. 0 190. 1 188. 5 187. 4 187.2 186 8 186 3 185. 8 185 0 184. 8 185. 0 185. 1 185. 1 185. 0 184. 7 185. 9 Rent 104. 6 108. 5 108. 0 108.2 108.3 108. 6 111. 2 117. 4 120. 8 120. 7 120. 8 121.2 121. 5 122. 0 122. 2 122. 6 122. 8 122. 9 123. 1 123. 5 123. 9 124. 4 124. 8 Fuel, electricity, and refrigeration House furnishings 99. 7 105. 4 107. 7 109. 8 110. 3 112 4 121. 1 133.9 137. 5 135. 0 135 S 137. 0 138. 4 139. 1 139. 7 140 0 140. 3 140.9 141. 4 138. 8 138. 9 139. 5 140. 9 100. 5 122. 2 125. 6 136.4 145. 8 159, 2 V84.:i 1 95. 8 189.0 186. 8 184. 8 185.6 185. 2 185. 4 185. 4 184. 7 185.3 185. 4 185.6 185. 4 185. 2 186.4 189. 3 A speciarsurvey during the week of September 11 indicate a decline in food prices of 0.8 percent between August 15 and September 15,., NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities. Source: Department of Labor. Miscellaneous 101. 1 110. 9 115. 8 121.3 124. 1 128. 8 139.9 149. 9 154. 6 154. 3 154.8 155. 2 155.2 154.9 155. 5 155. 1 155. 1 155. 0 154. 8 155.3 155. 3 156.2 158. 1 WHOLESALE PRICES Wholesole prices, after continuing to rise during the first three weeks of September, dropped during the 4th week because of seasonal declines in prices of form products and foods. Industrial prices, however, continued upward to new peaks. PERCENT OF 1926 PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE AVERAGE SCO 220 I_J—I I CNrf*"* [Til I I I I I I I \ I I I I I I I { I I l i t I II I I I I I t Ml t I I Ml I I | I I I I i I t , I I t 1t I I I I I I I I I I T I M I I i I I I IK I I . I t I 11 I I t I I 1 f 1 1 I I .1 ! I I III t I "^ J I I I i l l IIJJ LATEST. DATA PLOTTED s MONTHLY - SEPTEMBER WEEKLY - SEPTEMBER 26 SOUSCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC »OVI [1926=100] All commodities Farm products 1942 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average... 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average... 98.8 121. 1 152. 1 165. 1 155.0 105.9 148.9 181.2 188.3 165.5 99.6 130.7 168.7 179.1 161.4 Other than farm products and foods 95.5 109.5 135.2 151.0 147.3 1949: August September October November December 152.9 153.5 152.2 151.6 151.2 162.3 163. 1 159.6 156.8 154.9 160.6 162.0 159.6 158.9 155.7 145.0 145.3 145.0 145.0 145.4 _. . 151. 5 152.7 152.7 152. 9 155.9 157.3 162. 9 166.3 169. 5 154.7 159. 1 159.4 159. 3 164.7 165. 9 176.0 177. 5 180.7 154.8 156.7 155.5 155.3 159.9 162. 1 171. 4 174.6 177.7 145.8 145.9 146.1 146. 4 147.6 148.8 151. 5 155.3 159.0 Week ended: 1950: September 5 12. 1926. October 3_ 167. 7 169. 1 169.8 169, 4 168. 9 179.5 182.0 181. 3 180. 2 _179, 1 177.2 178.9 179.0 177. 4 175.3 156.5 157.8 159.2 159. 4 160.2 Period 1950: January February March April May June July August September ' 1 _, ; Estimates based on'change in weekly data. Source: Department of Labor. Foods In spite of o slight rise in prices poid by farmers, the parity ratio climbed to 105 in September, the highest since October 1948. PERCENT OF (910-14 AVERAGE 360 MONTHLY AVERAGE PERCENT OF (910-14 AVERAGE I3SO PRICES RECEIVED PRICES PAID (INCL. INTEREST, TAXES AND WAGE RATES] PARITY RATIO* I 1939 I 40 I 41 42 43 44 45 46 4? 48 49 I960 COUNCIL ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE [1910-14=100] Prices paid by farmers (includPrices received ing interest, Parity ratio ' taxes, and by farmers wage rates) Period 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1 944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1949: August 15 ... September 15 October 15November 15 -___ _ - __ _ _ _ _ T)fip,Rmher 1 5 1950: January 15 _ February 15 March 15_- _. April 15 May 15 June 15 July 15 August 15 September 15_ 1 1 Ratio _ _ _ ._ . 196 "234 275 285 249 123 152 182 207 240 259 250 77 104 108 113 115 110 100 244 247 242 237 233 249 248 246 245 246 98 100 98 97 95 235 237 237 241 247 247 263 267 272 249 248 250 251 254 255 256 258 259 94 96 95 96 97 97 103 103 105 2 .. _ -_ _ ,- _ 95 158 of index of prices received to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. Includes wartime subsidy payments paid on beef cattle, sheep, iambs, milk, and butterfat between October 1943 and June 1946. Source: Department of Agriculture. 74065—50 &?P'f\Ct'f?' "DOTfTd O I iJOiV Jtr j£IV>£j£3 Industrial stock prices advanced above previous postwar peaks during September; railroad stocks continued the rise started in July. Utilities showed little change from August. PERC ENT OF 1935-39 PERCENT Or AVERAGE 1935-39 &VE RASE 175 175 WEEKLY AVERAGE WEEKLY' AVERAGE J y \i / ISO INDUSTRIALS 1 A v d$&& ' 100 lAf\ \\ /ii/ 75 50 0 1939 41 42 43 44 /v^ :£ _,_ COMPOSITE tHOEX ^; C^"V^^ W-A UTILITIES ISO ' f\\f /U j* \ ^ V 125 ^C< 100 **' 75 1111111111 40 ^ f^/ //%-'-- 125 f/ 45 46 47 48 49 50 b = ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I I 1 1 | I t J^JLI J_ J F M A M J J A S O N O J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 1948 1949 0 I95O SOURCE: STANDARD AND POOR'S CORPORATION COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC AOVISERS [1935-39=100] Composite index • Period Weekly average: 1939 1942 1946 — -1948 1949 _. 1949: August September October. _ November December 1950: January February _ _ _ March _ April May June July . .. August September Week ended: 1950: September 6 13 20_ ^ 27 October 4.liCl,J_ 1 ... . _ _ _. _ Industrials Railroads Utilities 94. 2 69. 4 139. 9 124. 4 121. 3 121. 8 123. 8 127. 3 129. 1 132. 7 135. 1 136. 7 138. 8 141. 8 146. 9 147. 7 138. 2 147. 2 151. 7 94. 8 71. 3 143. 4 130. 6 127. 5 128. 0 130. 3 134. 4 136. 5 140. 3 142 6 144. 4 146. 5 150. 0 156 1 157. 6 147. 3 158 0 163. 3 74. 7 66 1 143 0 114 7 96 4 94. 2 95 1 97. 6 96 2 101 0 107 8 107 2 108. 5 109 5 109 7 107 1 109 7 120 6 125 1 98. 6 61. 3 120.2 96. 2 97. 5 98. 5 100. 0 101.2 102. 6 104. 1 105. 8 107. 4 109. 6 111. 0 112. 8 111. 5 103. 0 104. 2 104. 9 148. 152. 152. 153. 157. 159 163. 164. 166. 170. 119 6 127 7 126. 7 126 4 129.7 105. 0 104. 7 104. 5 105. 4 106. 2 4 2 3 9 5 3 8 1 0 3 Composite index prior to June 23,1948, was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials, 20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 116 common stocks are represented, with 305 industrials, 20 railroads, and. 31 utilities. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation. <!>&*& Civilian employment in September was the highest on record for that month, but over I.I million below the August record peak. Nonagricultural employment declined by almost 800,000. Unemployment declined by 160,000 to 2.5 million. Most of the decline in employment was due to young people returning to school and slockenina agricultural activity. MILLIONS OF PERSONS 70 | MILLIONS OF 1 (—' PERC ENT PER CENT 20 1 1 5 ~ 10 - •i _ PERSONS 1 70 ! UNEMPLOYMENT - PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORGE B 0 1939 — _ - - 15 ^mm__,,—-"'">.__ —. - u-_J==3_Jzm £L 1944 1947 1948 _ L i. t ! i 1 1 1949 I I i X 1 j t "*"-»-«^_.^ 1 i 1949 1 ( I | . i 10 5 | | | 0 1950 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Total labor force (including armed forces) Period 1939 1944 1947 1948 1949 monthly monthly monthly monthly monthly average average average average average 55, 600 65, 890 61, 608 62, 748 63, 571 Civilian labor force Armed Total Employment l civilian forces Agricul- Nonagrilabor Total tural cultural force Thousands of persons, 14 years of age and over 36, 140 45, 750 55, 230 370 9, 610 54, 630 53, 960 11,260 45, 010 8,950 8,266 58, 027 1,440 60, 168 49, 761 59, 378 61, 442 51, 405 7,973 1,306 1,466 50, 684 8,026 62, 105 58, 710 Unemployment Unemployment as percent of total civilian labor force 9,480 670 2, 142 2,064 3,395 17.2 1.2 3.6 3.4 5.5 __ 65, 105 64, 222 64, 021 64, 363 63, 475 1,468 1,459 1, 445 1,436 1,430 63, 637 62, 763 62, 576 62, 927 62, 045 59, 947 59,411 59, 001 59, 518 58, 556 8, 507 8, 158 7,710 7,878 6,773 51,441 51, 254 51, 290 51, 640 51, 783 3,689 3,351 3,576 3,409 3,489 5.8 5.3 5.7 5.4 5.6 1950: January _ _. February March April May June July August _ _September. _ _ _ _ 62, 835 63, 003 63, 021 63, 513 64, 108 66, 177 65, 742 66, 204 65, 020 1,408 1,366 1, 346 1, 330 1,320 1,311 1,315 1,337 1,453 61, 427 61, 637 61, 675 62, 183 62, 788 64, 866 64, 427 64. 867 63', 567 56, 947 56, 953 57, 551 58, 668 59, 731 61, 482 61,214 62, 367 61, 226 6,198 6,223 6,675 7,195 8,062 9,046 8,440 8, 160 7,811 50, 749 50, 730 50, 877 51, 473 51, 669 52, 436 52, 774 54, 207 53, 415 4,480 4,684 4,123 3,515 3,057 3,384 3,213 2, 500 2,341 7.3 7.6 6.7 5.7 4.9 5.2 5.0 3.9 3.7 1949: August September October November December 1 Includes part-time workers and those wbo had jobs but were not at work for sucb reasons as vacation, illness, bad weather, temporary lay-OS, and industrial disputes. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. MONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT - SELECTED INDUSTRIES An increose of over 300,000 workers in durable goods industries between mid-July and mid-August reflected the high demand for durables. A similar rise in nondurable manufacturing employment was primarily seasonal. MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS 80 9.0 NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING l~ CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION I I I TRADE 1949 V 8.5 r- i J L .0 S SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LASOR O N COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC * [Thousands of wage and salary workers l] Manufacturing Period Total 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average _ 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1949: July August September. October. _ November December 1950: January _ .. February March __ April May June 22 - .. . _ _ July .2 . August 10, 078 17, 381 14, 461 15, 247 15, 286 14, 146 13, 757 14, 114 14, 312 13, 892 13, 807 14, 031 13, 980 13, 997 14, 103 14, 162 14,413 14, 667 14, 763 15, 385 Contract construction Durable Nondurgoods able goods 4,683 11,077 7,739 8,373 8,315 7,465 7,255 7,302 7,409 6,986 7,050 7,303 7,342 7,324 7,418 7,548 7,809 7,968 7,976 8,282 5,394 6,304 6,722 6,874 6, 970 6,681 6,502 6,812 6,903 6,906 6,757 6,728 6, 638 6,673 6,685 6,614 6,604 6, 699 6,787 7,103 1,150 1,567 1,661 1,982 2,165 2, 156 2,277 2,340 2,341 2,313 2, 244 2,088 1,919 1,861 1,907 2,076 2,245 2,416 2,524 2, 589 Trade 6,705 7,322 8,815 9, 196 9,491 9,438 9,220 9, 213 9,409 9,505 9,607 10, 156 9,246 9, 152 9,206 9,346 9,326 9,414 9,374 9,426 Finance and service 4,610 5, 187 5,994 6,427 6,515 6,544 6, 631 6,616 6, 604 6, 561 6,534 6,508 6,473 6,473 6,499 6,560 6, 602 6, 653 6,680 6,680 Government (Federal, State, local) 1 3,987 6,049 5,607 5,454 5,613 5,813 5,738 5,763 5,893 5,866 5,783 6,041 5,777 5,742 5,769 5,915 5, 900 5,832 5,741 5,798 Transportation and public utilities 2,912 3,619 4,023 4,122 4,151 3,977 4,007 3,992 3, 959 3,871 3,892 3,930 3,869 3,841 3,873 3,928 3,885 4,023 4,058 4,099 Mining 845 917 852 943 981 932 943 956 948 593 917 940 861 595 938 939 940 947 922 962 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates, of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 7) which include proprietors, selfemployed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. 3 Preliminary estimates. Source: Department of Labor. 8 WEEKLY HOURS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES The workweek in durable goods industries rose to a new postwar peak of 41.7 hours in August. In nondurable industries, it was ot a new postwar high for August. HOU ?S PER WEEK HOURS PER WEEK DURABLE MANUFACTURING 42 40 NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING 7 —w ! 42 V^A/^ S \^yv 40 38 36 36 34 34 T:,,,! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ii 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1947 1948 M 1 1 1 1 1 I ' 1949 rv^rV ^~^ 38 0 N~-r^l M 0 11111 1111 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 t M 1947 1948 1950 1 1 1 ) t ! ! t 1 t 1 1 1949 i ii i i 1 i i i ii 1950 RETAIL TRADE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION 42 42 40 40 ^r\s.-vVX/,_/x^r^ 38 38 * 36 v^ i i i i i | i i i tt 1 1 ! t 1 1 I M 1947 36 i \/ ~v 34 0 F N/""X 1948 1 1 1949 34 M M 1 1 11 M 0 T, , M I , , . II 1947 1950 M M ! . MM ! M 1 | ] 1 1 1 J ! 1948 1949 1 1i11 11 1111 1950 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Hours per week, selected industries l] Manufacturing Period Total 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average — 1949- July . August _ _ _ September October -_ -_ -- ]Xfov^TTihfvr December 1950: January February. March April __ May June 33 July 3 Auerust 1 _ -_ For production and related workers. - - - 37. 7 44. 9 40. 4 40. 4 40. 1 39.2 38.8 39. 1 39. 6 39. 7 39. 1 39.8 39. 7 39.7 39.7 39. 7 39. 9 40. 4 40. 5 41.2 Durable goods 38.0 46. 6 40.2 40. 6 40. 5 39. 5 38.8 39.3 39. 6 39. 9 39. 0 40. 1 40.0 40. 1 40.2 40.7 40. 8 41. 3 41. 1 41. 7 •Not available. Nondurable construction Retail trade goods 37.4 42. 5 40.5 40. 1 39. 6 38.8 38.7 38. 9 39.6 39. 6 39.3 39.5 39.4 39.3 39.2 38. 5 38. 9 39.4 39.8 40.6 (2) (42 () (4 37.3 36. 7 37. 1 37.2 36. 5 36.9 36. 1 35.8 34.8 33.7 34.5 35. 6 36. 5 37.0 37.0 (?) (22) (2) () (2) 40. 3 40.3 40.4 40.9 40.9 40. 5 40. 4 40. 1 40-7 40.4 40.4 40.3 40.2 40.4 41.0 41.4 • Preliminary estimates. Source: Department ot Labor. AVERAGE "GS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES Average hourly earnings in manufacturing industries si lowed a very small upward change in August but declined slightly in purchasing power because of the rise in the• consumers' price index. Recent widespread wage increases will not be reflected in these series un il the S jptember and October data are available. DOLL 4RS PER HOUR 1.50 DOLL* RS PER HOUR 1.60 DURABLE MANUFACTURING NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING 1.40 1.50 1949 DOLLARS* e~^»S~ X*""^ ^ "Ww-JOT 1.30 1.40 ^\"^ X~' 1.30 1.20 ^\ / \ 1 / CURF ENT DOLLARS / r^t^^ S**^ i.ao 0 CURRENT DOLLARS t.l 0 , =MII| 1948 1947 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! ! 1 i 1 1 t ! 1 1 1 1 1 1949 1950 0 M 1 M i ! 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 t ! M IS4T 1.30 2.10 BUILDING CONSTRUCTION M 1 f 1 1 1 i ! f M 1 M 1 1 1t M M 1 1949 I960 1948 RETAIL TRADE 1.20 2.00 > ^ \ 1949 DOLLARS* 1.90 IX*^?**"*^ f^^~ 1. 10 1949 DOLLARS* f / i.eo X*****'^ 1.00 CURRENT DOLLARS y^^> CURRENT DOLLARS ** ^ 1.70 0 .90 1 ! ! L! ! 1 1 M 1 i i i t i 1 i i i 'i i 1947 1948 1 1 *• ! 1 1 1 ! 1 M 1949 1 1 1 M t 1 1 1 t t 1950 "CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY-CONSUMERS PRICE INDEX OH BABE OF ISOMOO 0 1 t i t i i i || | i 1947 [_LJ j jj_ij LI J 1 1 1 M 1 1 - I I 1 1 1948 1949 ! 1 M 1 1j 1 j 1 1 1950 * * HOT AVA1UA )LE PRIOR TO JANUARY 04B SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Selected industries All manufacturing Period 1939 monthly average _ _ 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average _ _ 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1949: July August _ September October _ November December 1950: January February March April _ May 4 June 4 July August 4 1 Production 1 and related workers. Not available. Source: Department ol Labor. Durable goods manufacturing Nondurable goods manufacturing Building construction Retail trade 1949 Current Current 1949 1949 1949 Current 1949 Current Current dollars dollars 2 dollars dollars 2 dollars dollars 2 dollars dollars 2 dollars dollars 2 $0. 633 .961 1. 086 1.237 1.350 1. 401 1.408 1.399 1. 407 1.392 1. 392 1.408 1.418 1.420 1.424 1.434 1. 442 1.453 1.462 1.463 $1. 077 1. 286 1.287 1. 312 1. 334 1.401 1. 414 1. 402 1.403 1. 398 1.396 1.421 1.437 1.442 1. 441 1. 450 1. 446 1. 444 1.433 1.430 $0. 698 1. 059 1. 156 1. 292 1. 410 1. 469 1. 477 1. 473 1.482 1. 458 1. 457 1.476 1. 485 1.483 1. 486 1. 499 1. 509 1.523 1. 534 1.537 $1. 187 1.418 1.370 1. 370 1.393 1.469 1.483 1.476 1. 478 1.464 1. 461 1.489 1.505 1.506 1. 504 1.516 1. 514 1. 514 1.504 1.502 (s) (33) () $1. 171 1. 278 1. 325 1. 332 1. 319 1. 328 1.325 1. 325 1.334 1. 343 1.350 1. 353 1. 355 1. 358 1. 364 1.373 1.374 (33) (3) () $1. 242 1. 263 1.325 1. 337 1. 322 1.324 1. 330 1.329 1.346 1. 361 1.371 1. 369 1. 370 1.362 1. 356 1. 346 1.343 (3) (33) () (3) SI. 848 1.935 1. 922 1. 932 1. 938 1.944 1. 947 1. 964 1. 976 1. 988 1.995 1. 986 1.998 1.993 1. 999 (3) (3) (33) (3) () $1. 826 1.935 1.930 1.936 1.932 1. 952 1. 953 1.982 2. 002 2.018 2.019 2. 008 2.004 1.981 1. 960 (3) (3) (33) () $1. 009 1. 088 1. 137 1. 148 1. 146 1.150 1. 140 1. 138 1. 126 1. 153 1. 145 1.148 1. 156 1. 162 1.173 1. 184 (3) ' Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on base 1949=100. See note 3 to table on page 27. * Preliminary estimates. (33) (3) () $1. 070 1.075 1. 137 1. 153 1. 148 1. 147 1. 145 1. 141 1. 136 1. 168 1. 162 1. 162 1. 169 1. 165 1. 166 1. 161 (3) EMmw L& « && *FGS • Weekly earnings in bofh durable goods msnufactur ng and nondurable goods manufacturing ivere rr.fffe than a dollar higher in August than in July. The i ncrease was primarily due to the lengthened worhweek in both durables and nondurables. DOL LARS PER 63 WEEK f^\ GO 1949 DOLLARS* 55 /""V^ H^AJT /^^ RRENT SO DOL L«RS 60 yN^W DURABLE MANUFACTURING / 55 «-*" ,1949 DOLLARS* 50 - -« ***\L 45 iiMf ,,,,,,,,,,; ! M 1 i 1 ! 1 t ! 1948 (949 0 1950 ^~+S^- CURRENT ' ' ' M ^ 1 f 11 1 DOLLARS 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 t 1 1 t 1947 eo 1 1 ! M 1948 1 1 1 1 111 1 t t 1 1 ! 1 t 1 ,949 1950 50 BUILDING CONSTRUCTION RETAIL TRADE ezss *t*^'***~***<^ ^^^ > 1949 DOLLARS* 75 45 ky^AV x^J 1949 DOLLARS*. / ^.^ 1 65 4O ¥ ' ,^V^^ r^ -^^^CURRENT DOLLARS 35 "^ CURRENT D OLLARS 60 0 ^^ ^^£^^^^C^ 40 1 Ll M l , , , , , 1947 70 £%/' DOLLARS 45 0 PER WEEK NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING / 30 ' M i t f [ [,j,_uL 1947 1 1 ! 1 1 1 M i 1 1 i i I i I1 t ii ii 1948 1949 1 t 1 1 1 ( 1 1 ! 1 71 0 IS50 1947 1946 IS49 COUNCIL All manufacturing Period 1950: January February March _ April Mav June 4* July 4 August _ OF ECONOMIC Building construction ADVISORS Retail trade 1949 1949 2 Current 1949 2 Current 1949 Current 1949 Current Current dollars dollars 2 dollars dollars dollars dollars 2 dollars dollars 2 dollars dollars 1939 monthly average 1 943 monthly average 1946 monthly average _ 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average _ 1949: July _ _ August September October _ Movember December [Selected industries Durable goods Nondurable goods manufacturing manufacturing 1350 $23. 86 43. 14 43. 82 49. 97 54. 14 54. 92 $40. 58 57. 75 51. 92 52.99 53.50 54. 92 $26. 50 49. 30 46. 49 52. 46 57. 11 58.03 $45. 07 66.00 55.08 55. 63 56.43 58.03 (3s) (3) () $46. 96 50.61 51.41 (33) () (3) $49. 80 50. 01 51.41 (33) () (33) () $68. 85 70.95 (33) () (33) () $68. 03 70.95 (33) () (3) $40. 66 43. 85 45.93 (33) () (3) $43. 12 43. 33 45.93 54.63 54. 70 55.72 55. 26 54.43 56.04 54. 85 54.81 55.55 55.48 54.59 56.55 57. 31 57. 89 58,69 58. 17 56.82 59. 19 57.54 58. 01 58.51 58.40 56. 99 59.73 51. 55 51.31 52. 59 52. 47 52.07 52.69 51.76 51.41 52. 43 52. 68 52. 23 53. 17 71. 28 71.95 70.69 71.80 70.21 70.26 71.57 72.09 70. 48 72.09 70. 42 70. 90 46.95 46.87 46. 58 46.06 45. 63 45. 83 47. 14 46. 96 46. 44 46. 24 45.77 46.25 56.29 56.37 56. 53 56. 93 57. 54 58. 70 59. 21 60. 28 57.03 57.23 57. 22 57.56 57. 71 58.35 58.05 58.92 59.40 59.47 59. 74 61. 01 61. 57 62. 90 63. 05 64. 09 60. 18 60. 38 60. 47 61.69 61. 76 62.52 61.81 62. 65 52. 91 53. 06 53. 04 52. 17 52. 83 53. 74 54. 65 55. 78 53.61 53.87 53. 68 52.75 52.99 53. 42 53.58 54.53 68.76 67.00 68. 83 70.70 72. 93 73. 74 73.3 96 () 69. 67 68. 02 69.67 71.49 73. 15 73.30 72.3 51 - () 46. 58 46.26 46. 26 46. 47 46. 94 48. 09 49.02 (3) 47.19 46.96 46. 82 46.99 47.08 47.80 48.06 (3) _ __ -— - * For production and related \yorkers, I Not available. Source; Department of Labor, 1 Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on tne base 1949=100. See note 3 to table on page 27. < Preliminary estimates. 11 WORK STOPPAGES Man-doys of idleness resulting from work stoppages remained the some in August as in July. Although the number of work stoppages increased sharply in August, most were of fairly short duration. MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE 20 20 MONTHLY AVERAGE . I I 1*1 I I I 1933 1940 1941 1342 1343 1944 1945 1946 1947 1949 1949 I960 1948 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT or LASOR. fiCUKCII. OP ECONOMIC A&VI8M4 Man-days of idleness during period Period 1939 1941 1942 1944... . 1945... 1946 1947 1948 1949 Monthly average (thousands) . 1949: July August September October November December 1950: January 1 February *_ _ . March1 . April ». May * . June 1* July _._ August !_ 1 12 Preliminary estimates* 1,483 1,917 348 727 3,167 9,667 2,883 2,842 4,208 Workers involved in stoppages Beginning In effect Percent of during in estimated month period working time (thousands) (thousands) 0.28 1,170 .32 2,360 .05 840 2,120 .09 .47 3,470 1.43 4,600 .41 2, 170 .37 1,960 .59 3,030 Number of stoppages Beginning in period In effect during month 2, 613 4,288 2,968 4,956 4,750 4,985 3,693 3,419 3,606 2, 350 2,140 6,270 17, 500 6,270 1, 350 .35 .27 .87 2.49 .93 .19 110 134 507 570 57 46 249 232 603 977 914 417 343 365 287 256 197 170 603 643 536 475 388 323 2,600 7,850 3,750 3,150 3,000 2,750 2,900 2,900 .38 1.27 .49 .47 .40 .36 .41 .35 185 75 80 160 325 260 225 350 300 515 530 300 500 400 400 465 225 210 260 400 450 425 425 560 340 325 400 550 650 650 650 800 Source; Department of PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Industrial production continued to rise sharply in September, reaching a level more than 7 percent above June 1950 and 22 percent, above September 1949. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE too 400 top I 1939 4O 41 42 I 43 I I 44 45 I 46 I 47 I 48 I 49 1950 1948 * PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted] Period 1943 monthly average _ 1946 monthly average . 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1949- July August September October November _ _ December 1950: January February _ March . April. _ May June July August *„ 1 September - 74065—50 i Preliminary estimates. Total industrial production 239 170 187 192 176 161 170 174 166 173 179 183 180 187 190 195 199 197 208 213 Iulanufacture s Total 258 177 194 198 183 168 178 184 176 179 188 192 192 194 199 203 207 206 217 221 Durable goods 360 192 220 225 202 185 193 199 175 181 203 209 207 211 222 231 236 235 245 254 Nondurable goods 176 165 172 177 168 154 165 172 177 177 176 179 180 181 180 181 183 181 193 195 Minerals 132 134 149 155 135 123 129 119 112 141 132 130 118 144 140 145 151 146 158 163 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 13 WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORS Steel was operating at over 100 percent of rated capacity in the second half of September. Electric power output continued to push forward to new highs. Bituminous coal production was running above the August figures, the production of automobiles and trucks a little below. BILLIONS OF KILOWATT 7.0 MILLIONS OF TONS 3 HOURS SOURCES: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE. EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE. DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS. St 36l Period Weekly average: 1947 1948 1949. Thousands of net tons ... Week ended: 1949: September 3 _ 10.. 17 24__ October 1 8 1950: September 2 9 16 23 30 October 7 ... ... _ . -. Percent of theoretical capacity1 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC novisESS Electric power, Bituminous by utilities coal (millions of (thousands of kilowatt-hours) short tons) a Cars and trucks (number) 1,628 1,695 1, 496 93.0 94. 1 81. 0 4,821 5, 300 5,500 2,058 1 948 1,418 92, 163 82, 340 120, 350 1, 590 1, 552 1, 596 1, 589 1,560 151 86. 3 84. 2 86. 6 86. 2 84. 6 8. 2 5, 544 5, 258 5, 579 5, 556 5,521 5, 450 1 346 1, 231 1 449 331 297 357 138, 796 117, 703 152 228 150, 815 144, 285 141 032 1, 873 1 890 1, 921 1, 936 1, 942 1, 952 97. 1 98 0 99. 6 100. 4 100. 7 101. 2 6, 6 6 6, 6 1, 837 2 013 1 879 1 901 1 904 178 144 176 179, 178 171 459 029 449 457 503 385 271 296 313 644 597 I Based on weekly net ton capacity of 1,749,928 for 1947,1,802,476 for 1948,1,843,516 for 1949, l,906,26Sfor the first half of 1950, and 1,928,721 beginning July 1,1950. > Daily average for week. Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, and Ward's Automotive Reports. 14 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED MANUFACTURES Increased output was registered in August by almost every major manufacturing group, the only exception being nonferrous metals and products, which just maintained the July level. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE (ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION! OPT I I ,H i i j VCHE" ii i»/*.^,\ 1 1 1 ( ( ^r ' ^r~\r1^^ 1 / / f " PRODUCTS XX ~+^*S*+j. ^—>^~s. ^~-^~ ^^MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS JL L JL rr t i i i t , r i n rr« • . • i 40 42 44 46 48 |948 1949 -^W/ ^*»«»^% X V 1 1 1 c kL 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 n i , 1 1 1 , 1 1 , i ,Tl 40 42 44 46 48 1950 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted] Nondurable manufactures Durable manufactures Period 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average. 1949 monthly average 1949: July-August September October __ November December 1950: January February March. April May. June. July August 1 ' Preliminary estimates. Iron and steel - -- 208 150 195 208 188 156 178 179 102 145 201 203 201 205 222 226 231 228 234 Lumber Nonferrous Textiles and Machinery metals and and products products products 129 131 143 145 130 115 126 132 133 147 158 144 150 156 159 158 155 151 160 443 240 276 277 234 217 216 224 226 217 227 229 236 243 251 258 262 265 281 267 157 187 193 160 127 141 157 164 163 166 180 190 200 198 197 207 203 203 153 162 163 170 147 120 140 155 169 175 173 178 179 173 174 175 173 165 187 Petroleum Manufac- Chemical and coal tured food products products products 185 173 193 218 209 198 203 208 198 205 219 211 205 207 206 216 222 228 235 145 149 157 159 163 161 166 167 165 160 160 161 161 166 164 164 164 166 166 384 236 251 254 241 228 229 236 240 243 246 248 247 247 252 256 261 261 269 Source: Board ol Governors of the Federal Beserve System. 15 NEW CONSTRUCTION Expenditures for new construction in September advanced about 2 percent above their August level and were almost 30 percent higher than a year ago. The increase for Federal, State, and local was almost 4 percent and for private about I percent. MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2,500 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION e,ooo 2,000 1,500 1,500 TOTAL PRIVATE I.OOO 1,000 PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL. [NON FARM) FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL 1950 1948 1951 SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Period 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average- ._ 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average-- 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1949: August _ September October November December 1950; January February _ _ . , March April __ Mav June July 3 August September 2 1 Includes 1 _ - _ - [Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Private construction Total new Residential Total Other construction (nonfarm) private 142 366 223 683 - 142 285 143 1,173 114 182 438 68 469 803 335 1,000 _. _ 568 1,094 526 1,386 _.. 674 1,389 715 1,798 659 1,350 691 1,883 _ _ _ _ 646 1,322 676 1,853 _ 627 706 1,897 1,333 623 1,375 1,934 752 ~ 636 1,428 792 1,985 629 842 2,039 1,471 - - 643 1,506 863 2,068 „ _ 644 956 1,600 2,127 .641 938 1,579 2,167 _ 646 2,216 991 1,637 659 1,674 1,015 2,240 664 1,719 1,055 2,284 673 1,772 2,319 1,099 682 1,109 2,354 }, 791 688 1,125 1, 813 2,397 - _ public residential construction. Preliminary estimates. 16 Federal, State, and local" 317 888 256 197 291 409 532 531 564 559 557 568 562 527 588 579 566 565 547 563 584 Sources: Department ot Commarce and Department of Labor. NEW HOUSING STARTS Housing starts dropped moderately in August but still were over 40 percent higher than August a year ago. Starts during the first eight months of 1950 totalled about 988,000, over 50 percent more than in the corresponding period of 1949. THOUSANDS OF UNITS 200 THOUSANDS OF UNITS 200 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS New nonfarm units started Monta 1948 1949 1950 39, 300 42, 800 56, 000 67, 100 72, 900 77, 200 81, 100 86, 300 93, 800 94, 000 79, 700 58, 800 53, 500 50, 100 76, 400 99, 500 100, 300 97, 800 95, 000 86, 700 82, 300 73, 400 63, 700 52, 900 50, 000 50, 400 69, 400 88, 300 95, 400 95, 500 96, 100 99, 000 102, 900 104, 300 95, 500 78, 300 78, 700 82,900 117, 300 133, 400 149, 100 1 142, 000 1 144, 000 1 141, 000 849, 000 931, 600 1, 025, 100 70, 750 77, 600 85, 425 1947 January February March. _ M a y _ _ _ _ - July _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - October December Total i Preliminary estimates. Source: Department of Labor. 17 The survey made between mid-July and mid-August of business investment plans indicates a substantial expansion of programs for new plant and equipment and en acceleration of expenditures in 3rd quarter by 13 percent above the amount planned when the May survey was made. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 E5 :•:* TRANSPORTATION ANO:-> 54SSELECTRIG AND GAS W£ UTILITIES SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal variation] Total » Period Manufacturing Mining Transportation Railroad Other Electric and Commercial miscelgas utilities and laneous * 5,200 8,190 6,630 19, 230 18, 120 1, 930 3,400 3,210 8,340 7,250 380 680 440 800 740 280 560 550 1, 320 1,350 280 340 320 700 520 480 710 630 2,680 3, 140 1,850 2,490 1,480 5,390 5, 120 1948- Third quarter Fourth quarter 19, 320 21, 640 8,360 9,280 800 880 1,320 1,640 680 680 2,760 3,400 5,440 5,760 1949: First quarter _ _ Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 17, 840 18, 640 17, 480 18, 520 7,400 7,520 6,760 7,320 760 760 720 720 1,440 1, 520 1, 240 1,200 520 560 560 480 2,720 3,120 3,160 3,560 5,040 5,160 5,040 5,280 1950: First quarter Second quarter— Third quarter 3 14, 800 17, 320 20, 240 6,080 7,440 9,080 600 640 720 920 1,200 1,280 320 360 440 2,600 3,040 3,640 4,240 4, 640 5,040 1939., 1941 1945 1948 1949 _ _ 3' Excludes agriculture. Commercial and miscellaneous composed of trade, service, finance, and communication. * Figures for third quarter are based on anticipated capital expenditures reported in the July-August survey. NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are .Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other data. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000. Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted) 18 NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES Net proceeds from new security issues increased about 5800 million in 2nd quarter. Over half of the increased proceeds was used for retirement of debt and stock. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3.0 1939 1943 1946 I94T 1948 SOURCE: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION. [Millions of dollars] Proposed uses of net proceeds Estimated net proceeds Period New money Total 1939 1943 1946 1947 1948 1949 quarterly average quarterly average quarterly average quarterly average quarterly average quarterly average 1948: Third quarter Fourth quarter . _ _ . __ . 1949: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1950: First quarter Second auarter_ _ _ ._ _ __ __ « _ _ _ Plant and equipment Working capital Retirement of debt and stock ' 529 287 1,689 1, 617 1,740 1,490 81 77 820 1,148 1,482 1, 151 43 35 529 852 1,055 931 39 42 291 296 428 221 448 210 869 469 258 338 1,321 2,051 1,056 1,870 743 1,469 314 401 264 182 1,210 2,441 1,009 1,299 970 1,986 788 861 784 1,675 669 596 186 312 120 265 240 456 219 438 1,398 2, 193 1,014 1,275 777 958 237 317 384 918 i Includes small amount for other purposes. NOTE,—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Securities and Exchange Commission. 19 AND In August, while department s5ors and ether retail sales, on a seasonally adjusted basis, fell somewhat below the July bulge, both the sales and new orders of manufacturers jumped to levels far above previous pecks. Manufacturers* inventories changed litfle. eiu IONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TOTAL'1 AND MANUFACTURING RETAIL 20 60 MONTHLY AVERAGE SEASONALLY.,... .....ADJUSTED '*... MONTHLY AVERAGE SEASONALLY AQ JUSTED ^INVENTORIES .-""'• TOTAL INVENTORIES^ : : 40 / X-TO .' —-i //A'•• // / r^-vv ~.._ y TAL SALES* * • ....-'•""""' *"•- MANUFAGTUR NG 1 1 ! M 0 1 1 1 1 JJJ uljLtll LLLnlULH 10 42 44 46 48 1948 ,..••««, DEPARTMENT 0 300 I I1 1 L 1 1 1 STORES /h1/ SALES / \ V •^-^^^^^ ./} INVENTORIES' 200 SALES'' b& l^f / »0 42 44 46 48 1950 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONTHLY AVERAGE ,/ s> MANUFACT JRINS 1 i 1 H 1 1 II II 400 INVENTORIES 20 ' 1949 PERC ENT OF 1935-1939 AVERAGE f 10 ^s- f SALES 10 50 30 ....••"""" /'•••• / 7>*--f"""' t ; IOO 1 I M 1 1 11 11 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 M 1! I 1948 1949 1 t 1M 11M t1 0 \ I960 \ \ Y \ | f | 1 M 1 1 1 111111 I 1 M 1 1 1 11 11 40 42 44 46 4B 1948 1949 II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1950 t WHOLESALE, MANUFACTUfi KG, AND RETAIL aOURCE : DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ANO 60ARO OF GOVERNORS OF THE FE0ERAL RESE RVg EYST EM Total business J Period Inventories a Sales * COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISER? Manufacturing Inventories 2 3 Sales Retail New orders 4 Inventories a Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1939 1943 1945 . 1946-. 1947 1948 1949__ 1949: July August September *. October November December . _ 1950: January February. March April . May . . June 77 - - _ July August ^ 20, 172 31, 143 SO, 571 42, 709 51, 692 58, 546 53, 628 55, 320 54, 631 54, 617 54, 356 53, 996 53, 628 54, 125 53, 932 54, 513 54, 741 55, 403 56, 227 55, 235 56,010 11, 109 22, 372 24, 181 27, 800 34, 739 38, 190 35, 997 34, 820 37, 137 37, 239 34, 603 35, 496 34, 651 35, 678 36, 463 37, 946 36, 895 40, 038 41, 387 43, 354 46, 512 11, 465 20, 098 18, 390 24, 818 29, 818 34, 066 30, 899 32, 367 31, 638 31, 076 30, 744 30, 547 30, 899 31, 136 31, 098 31, 103 31,219 31, 509 32, 014 31, 773 31, 600 5, 100 12, 822 12, 883 12, 841 17, 076 18, 998 17, 815 17, 114 18, 946 18, 865 16, 805 17, 313 16, 857 17, 650 18, 035 19, 144 18, 456 20, 695 21, 329 21, 751 24, 300 (6) (") (') 14, 004 16, 768 18, 694 17, 189 15, 496 18, 697 19, 441 18, 359 18, 138 16, 775 18, 646 17, 983 20, 228 18, 594 20, 345 22, 121 23, 981 27, 800 Sales » 4 5,532 7,361 7,543 11,226 13, 221 14, 969 13, 698 13, 862 13, 932 14, 355 14, 475 14, 336 13, 698 13, 998 13, 800 14, 282 14, 138 14, 416 14, 720 14, 125 14, 765 3, 504 5,277 6,315 8, 358 9,909 10, 837 10, 682 10, 549 10, 669 10, 856 10, 678 10, 630 10, 503 10, 855 11,101 11, 125 11, 080 11, 327 11, 699 12, 607 12, 475 Department stores InvenSales ' tories B 1935-39 = 100, seasonally adjusted 102 155 166 213 255 291 270 256 253 263 270 273 271 272 279 285 286 285 276 268 284 106 168 207 264 286 302 285 280 283 289 276 277 293 282 280 274 292 290 298 362 335 ' Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales tor month and retail ' Total business includes manufacturing, retail, and wholesale (not shown book value of inventories, end of period. separately in this table). 3 «Not available. Book value, end of period. ' Preliminary estimates. ' Monthly averageforyear and total for month. ' Data for new orders not adjusted for seasonal variation. Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 20 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS In July exports fell sharply. Imports continued to increase as they have in 10 of the past 12 months, reaching a level exceeded only once (following a maritime strike). These changes brought the merchandise export surplus down to only $63 million, the lowest since June 1941. MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,600 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,600 1,200 1,200 1946 1947 1948 1949 1949 1950 * RECORDED McRCHl IDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS, AND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED AREAS. * RECORDED G E N E R J MERCHANDISE IMPORTS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVr. [Millions of dollars] Exports i Period 1936-38 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1949: July . . August September October November . December 1950: January February__ March April May.,, June Julv 1 1 247 1,080 849 . . . _ - _ - _ ... . -- - - 1,278 1,054 1,000 900 883 909 852 841 944 744 772 866 808 828 876 774 Imports * 207 282 410 478 592 552 456 491 530 557 593 605 623 600 664 583 659 686 711 Excess of exports 40 798 439 801 462 448 443 393 379 296 248 339 121 172 202 225 169 190 63 Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas. Eecorded general merchandise imports. Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy. 21 NATIONAL INCOME The notional income rose almost $10 billion (pnnual rate) from 2nd quarter to 3rd quarter of 1950. Corporate profits (excluding the inventory valuation adjustment), employees'compensation, and <• proprietors' income all showed sizeable gains. BILLIONS OF DOLLASS 250 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS £50 ANNUAL fiATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL TOTALS TOTAL NATIONAL INCOME^ iCORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION: iftOOUSTMEPIT: • •MS IS 9 I960 SOURCE.-DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED]. [Billions of dollars] Total national income Period 1939 1944 1946—1947 1948 1949 72.5 183.8 180.3 198.7 223.5 216.8 - Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment Compensation of employees Proprietors' (business, professional, farm) and rental income Net interest 47.8 121.2 117. 1 128. 0 140.2 140.6 14.7 35.5 42.0 42. 4 47.3 41.7 4.2 3. J 2.9 3.5 4. 1 4.7 Total 5.8 24.0 18. 3 24.7 31.8 29.9 Profits before taxes 6.5 24.3 23.5 30.5 33.9 27.6 Inventory valuation adjustment -0.7 __ *.! —5.2 -5.X — 2.0 + 2.2 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1949: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1950: First quarter Second quarter1 Third quarter 1 1 218.8 217.8 216.7 214.2 141.5 140.5 140.0 140.2 43.8 42.2 40. 1 40.7 217. 2 226. 6 236. 0 142. 3 147. 6 153.5 41.5 41. 3 44.5 Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source; Department of Commerce (except as noted). 22 . . +.r. 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8 28.8 30.4 31. 8 28.4 28.3 26.4 28.2 27.6 + 3.!) + 3.7 +..S 5.0 5.0 5.0 28.4 '32.7 33.0 29.2 >35. 0 40.0 -2. ;s —. 7 -7.1) Preliminary estimates indicate that corporate profits again rose sharply in 3rd quarter of 1950. Both dividend payments and undistributed profits shared in the increase. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED) [Billions of dollars] Corporate profits before taxes Period 1939 1944 1946 .1947 1948 1949 _. - .- 1949' First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1950: First quarter l Second quarter: Third quarter - 6.5 24. 3 23.5 30. 5 33.9 27.6 _ 28. 3 26.4 28. 2 27. 6 __ - 29. 2 35.0 40.0 Corporate tax liability Total Dividend payments 5.0 1.5 3.8 4.7 13.5 10. 8 9.6 13. 9 5.8 18.5 6.6 11.9 13.0 20.9 7.5 10.6 17.0 7.8 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 17.4 10.9 7.9 10. 0 16. 4 7.7 10.8 17.3 7.4 10.6 16.9 8.2 11.4 14.7 16. 8 ' Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data. NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment. adjustment. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). Corporate profits after taxes 17.8 20.3 23. 2 8. 1 8. 1 9. 1 Undistributed profits 1.2 6. 1 8. 1 12.0 13.4 9.2 9.5 8.7 10.0 8.7 9.7 12.2 14. 1 See p. 22 for profits before taxes and inventory valuation 23 PERSONAL INCOME Personal income advanced sharply in August as increased employment and longer working hours expanded labor income. Proprietors' income, dividends, and interest also rose. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL TOTALS ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ..TOTAL W i..i..£V..i. i..!:..( TV lik / i (948 1949 1950 J A S O N D J F M A 1948 M J .L.t.1 t t"i.'..t.. i i i i _L 1949 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. I F J I I I M A M J 1951 IUNCIL OF ECONOMIC AOVISEN; [Billions of dollars] Period 72.6 165.9 191.0 209.5 206. 1 1939 1944 1947 1948 1949 1949: July August. _. Sp,pf,pTnbfir October November December 1950: January February March April May Proprietors' income Dividends Business, and personal professional, Farm interest and rental income 14.3 45.7 10. 2 9.2 116.2 23. 7 10. 6 11.8 15.6 26.8 122.3 14.5 29. 6 135.0 16. 1 17.7 134.9 13.4 28.3 17.2 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 12. 3 27. 9 16. 6 134.3 134.2 27.9 16.8 12.8 27.7 17.0 134.6 11.6 17.2 12. 1 133. 3 27.7 134.4 28. 1 17.2 13. 1 136.0 12.7 27.9 18.9 135. 2 14.6 28.9 17.5 28. 7 17.7 134.5 12.3 11.4 28. 8 18.0 136.9 18.2 28.8 138. 6 11. 0 29.4 141. 1 12. 1 17.8 30.2 17.8 12. 1 143. 1 17.8 13.6 145.1 31. 9 13. 8 32.1 17.9 147.7 Labor income (salaries, Total per- wages, and sonal income other labor income) June July. __1 _. Aueust _. 203.5 204.3 203.4 202.4 205. 7 208.4 214.6 215.4 219.3 213.8 214.5 217.1 220.7 223.4 Transfer payments 3.0 3. 6 11.8 11.2 12.3 12.4 12.6 12. 6 12. 1 12.4 12. 9 "18.4 122. 2 124. 2 117.2 J 14. 1 113.4 12.3 11.9 i Includes veterans' insurance dividend. During first quarter, the payment was at annual rate of $8.5 billion (or $2.1 billion, quarterly total) and during second quarter at $2.0 billion (or $602 million, quarterly total). ' Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. 24 CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING Consumption expenditures rose more rapidly than incomes in 3rd quarter, resulting in a drop in saving. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1951 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Disposable personal income: Period 1939 . 1941 1942 . 1944 1946 1947 1948 1949 _- 70.2 92. 0 116.7 147. 0 158. 9 169. 5 188. 4 187.4 - __. -_ - .. 1949: First quarter _ _ Second quarter _ Third quarter- _ _ Fourth quarter 1950: First quarter Second quarter2 Third quarter _ _ __ _ __ 189. 9 188.2 185. 1 186. 8 197.7 195.5 202. 0 Net saving as Less: Personal Equals: Personal net percent of disconsumption saving posable income expenditures Billions of dollars 3.8 67. 5 2.7 10. 7 82. 3 9. 8 21.9 25.6 91.2 24. 1 35.4 111. 6 7.6 12. 0 146. 9 2.3 3.9 165. 6 5.8 10. 9 177.4 4. 6 178. 8 8.6 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 6. 6 12. 5 177.4 5.2 178.4 9.8 6.2 3.3 179. 0 3.3 180. 6 6.2 182.4 184. 5 195. 0 15.3 11. 0 7.0 7.7 5.6 3.5 ' Income less taxes. »Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of roundingSource: Department of Commerce. 2S CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Consumption expenditures rose $10.5 billion (annual rate) from 2nd to 3rd quarter. Expenditures for durable goods were 16 percent above the high levels of first half of this year. Expenditures -for nondurable goods ond services also reached new peaks. BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL.RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTE TOTAL EXPENDITURES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars] Personal consumption expenditures Period Nondurable goods Total 1939 1944 1946 1947. 1948 1949 67.5 111. 6 146. 9 165.6 177. 4 178. 8 35.3 67. 1 85. 8 95. 1 100.9 98.5 Durable goods 6. 7 7. 1 16.6 21.4 22. 9 23.8 Services 25. a 37. 4 44. tf 49. 1 53.7 56.4 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1949: First quarter __ __ Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1950: First quarter Second quarter _ _ Third quarter ' _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ' Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. 26 177.4 178. 4 179.0 180.6 182. 4 184. 5 195.0 99.4 99.2 97.6 97.9 97.5 99.0 104.0 22.4 23.0 24. 7 25.3 26.9 26.7 31. 0 55.6 56. 2 56.6 57.4 58.0 58.8 60.0 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE IMGOME* Per capita disposable income increased slightly in terms of current dollars but showed little change in terms of purchasing power. 1,600 ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL AVERAGES 1949 DOLLARS-^ 1,200 1,200 CURRENT DOLLARS 1 3 4 1948 I 1 1 2 3 1949 2 1 3 I960 Z 1 195! SOURCES ! DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Per capita disposable personal income ' Current 1949 dollars8 dollars $912 $536 1,110 691 1,247 867 1,388 1,065 1,125 1,333 1,248 1, 177 1,270 1,285 1, 256 1,256 Period 1939 1941 1942 1944 1946 1947-. 1948 1949 __ $1, 280 1,264 1,237 1,243 $1, 275 1,261 1,239 1,249 58. 8 62.2 69. 5 76.7 84.4 94.3 101. 2 100.0 Not adjusted for seasonal variation 100.4 100. 2 99.9 99.5 1,310 1,291 1.328 1,329 1,294 1.297 98.6 99.8 102.4 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1949: First quarter Second quarter. Third quarter Fourth quarter 1950: First quarter , Second quarter.. _ 4 Third quarter _ - _ _ _ 1 Income less taxes. ! Current dollars divided 1 __ . . Consumers' price index3 1949 = 100 by the consumers' price index on the base 1949=100. The consumers' price index has been roughly adjusted to take account of the understatement from December 1941-February 1947. This adjustment is in line with the report of the Mitchell Committee. The unadjusted index will be found on page 3. 4 Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data. Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor. INCOME Farm income in August was about the same as a year ago. Prices paid, however, were up 3 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS MONTHLY AVERAGE 1949 DOLLARS" •CURRENT DOLLARS* 0 I I I I I I I I I „ I I 1940 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. Period 1939 monthly average1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average . 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average - -« 1949 monthly average. 1949: July August „ September October November _ December 1950* January February M arch _~ April May June 4 July August 4 -- , _ __ -- -- -- ___ _- _ _ - -_ __ _ paid by Farm income Prices farmers (inch Farm income (millions of (millions of s interest, taxes, current 1949 dollars) and wage rates) 2 dollars) ' 1949 = 100 1,478 49 724 1,851 53 981 -. 2,195 61 1, 339 2,416 73 1, 764 2,573 83 2, 136 2, 632 96 2, 527 . 2, 468 104 2, 567 2,359 100 2,359 __ 2,258 100 2, 258 --2, 565 100 2,565 . 2,959 99 .. 2, 929 3,435 98 3, 366 2,964 98 2,905 2,523 98 2,473 2,254 100 2,254 . 1,630 99 1, 614 1,674 100 1, 674 1,594 100 1,594 -1, 783 102 1,819 1,823 102 1,859 2,310 102 2,356 2,494 103 2,569 1 Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments. 1 Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1949=100. 3 Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by fanners, interest, 1 Preliminary estimates. Source: Department of Agriculture. 28 tajes, and wage rates, 1949=100. CONSUMER CREDIT Consumer credif increased in August by $614 million, to reach o total of nearly $ 2 1 billion, 27.5 percent above the level of August 1949. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 25 1939 1943 1949 1949 END OF YEAR 1949 END OF MONTH SOURCE: SOAR, COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC [Millions of dollars] Total consumer credit outstanding End of period 1939 .__ 1943 _ 1946 1947 1948-. .. 1949 1949: July_ August September October _ November December _• 1950: JanuaryFebruary March April Mav _ June July _ August a _ -_ _ _ __. . -_ Instalment credit Total Automobile sale credit Charge accounts Other consumer credit l 7,969 5,378 10, 191 13, 673 16,319 18, 779 16, 198 16, 453 16, 803 17, 223 17, 815 18, 779 4,424 2,001 4,000 6,434 8,600 10, 890 9,335 9,622 9, 899 10, 166 10, 441 10, 890 1,267 175 544 1,151 1,961 3,144 2, 610 2,761 2, 876 2,986 3,085 3,144 3, 157 1,826 3, 456 5, 283 6,639 7,746 6,725 6,861 7, 023 7,180 7,356 7,746 1,544 1,498 3,054 3, 612 3,854 3,909 3, 123 3,064 3, 123 3,197 3,454 3,909 2,001 1,879 3,137 3, 627 3,865 3,980 3,740 3,767 3,781 3,860 3,920 3,980 18, 344 18, 126 18, 302 18, 620 19, 085 19, 682 20, 365 20. 979 10, 836 10, 884 11, 077 11, 322 11, 667 12, 105 12, 604 13,015 3, 179 3,256 3,355 3,470 3,600 3, 790 3,994 4.095 7,657 7,628 7, 722 7,852 8,067 8, 315 8,610 8, 920 3, 506 3,233 3, 211 3,241 3, 290 3,392 3, 527 3.654 4,002 4,009 4,014 4,054 4, 128 4, 185 4,234 4,310 i Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Other sale credit and loans 3 Preliminary estimates. 29 MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE Commercial bank loans expanded $ 1.3 billion during August to a level $6,1 billion, or 15 percent, above a year ago. Investments in U.S. Government securities declined and investments in corporate and municipal securities continued to rise. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF 150 | DOLLARS 1 | 1939 1943 1948 1949 1 150 J F M A END OF YEAR M d J A S O N D J F M A M 1948 J J A S O N D J 1949 END OF MONTH SOURCE : BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISER: fBillions of dollars, all commercial banksl loans and investments End of period 1929 1939 1945 1947 _ 1948 1949 1949: July _ August September — October November December . 1950: January February March _ April _ _ May . June July ! . August _ _ _ 1 ._ _ _ _ _ _ ... . _ _ _ _ Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 30 49. 5 40. 7 124. 0 116. 3 114. 3 120.2 114. 7 117. 9 118 5 119. 5 119. 7 120. 2 121. 2 120. 6 120. 3 120. 4 121. 2 122. 1 122. 4 123. 5 Bank loans 36. 0 17. 2 26. 1 38. 1 42.5 43. 0 . 40. 5 41.2 41. 7 41. 8 42. 7 43. 0 42. 9 43. 1 43.7 43. 8 44. 1 45. 0 46. 0 47. 3 Total 13. 5 23. 4 97.9 78. 2 71.8 77.2 74. 3 76.7 76. 8 77.7 77.0 77.2 78. 3 77.5 76.7 76. 6 77. 1 77. 2 76.4 76. 2 Investments U. 8. Government securities 4.8 16. 3 90.6 69. 2 62.6 67.0 64. 4 66.7 66. 7 67.6 66.9 67.0 68. 0 67.1 65. 8 65. 6 66. 1 66. 0 65.0 64. 3 Other securities 8. 7 7.1 7.3 9. 0 9.2 10.2 9.8 10.0 10. 2 10. 1 10. 1 10.2 10. 3 10.4 10. 9 11.0 • 11. o 11.2 11.4 11.8 The privately-held money supply rose $700 million during August. Demand deposits, which exceeded the previous high reached in 1947; accounted for the increase. The slight rise in currency was more than offset by a drop in time deposits. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY (EXCLUDING U.S. GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS) 1539 1943 IS48 J...J. i 1 1. .t....t..l..l...l...i.J... L J- L±...L..I J . F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O 1349 END OF YEAR 1948 N D 1949 J F M A M J J A S 0 N D 1950 END OF MONTH SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. INCH OF ECOI [Billions of dollars] Total privately-held money supply End of period 1939 1943 1946 _ . ._. 1947 ___ 1948 1949 1949: July August Septem ber October November December 1950: January-February _ March April _. _, Mav : __ _ _ i.iO.J' June Julv August 3 _ _ . _ _ - - - 63.3 112. 4 164.0 170.0 169. 1 169.8 166. 3 166. 9 166. 3 167. 7 168. 1 169. 8 169. 7 168. 2 167. 1 168. 5 169. 5 169. 7 170. 4 171. 1 Currency outside banks 6. 4 18. 8 26. 7 26. 5 26. 1 25.4 24. 9 25. 1 24. 9 24. 9 25. 1 25. 4 24. 5 24. 7 24. 6 24. 6 24. 7 24. 6 24 4 24. 5 Adjusted demand deposits ' 29. 8 60. 8 83.3 87. 1 85. 5 85. 8 83. 1 83. 4 83. 1 84. 3 85. 0 85 8 86. 4 84. 5 83. 3 84. 5 85. 3 85. 4 86. 6 87. 5 Time deposits ' 27. 1 32. 7 54. 0 56. 4 57. 5 58. 6 58.4 58. 4 58 4 58. 4 58. 0 58 6 58. 7 59 0 59 3 59. 5 59 5 59. 7 59. 4 59. 1 is Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection, Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System 8 Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System. 31 FEDERAL GASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC In 3rd quarter of 1950, cash payments to the public were $ 1.0 billion smaller than receipts. In the corresponding quarter of 1949 payments exceeded receipts by $386 million. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS CASH PAYMENTS 2 1947 1949 1950 EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS PI y EXCESS OF CASH PAYMENTS 1949 1947 CA LENDAR YEARS SOURCE: BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT, :n. OF ECONOMIC ADVISER: [Millions of dollars] Federal cash receipts from the public Federal cash payments to the public 41, 451 44 282 44, 922 41, 346 41, 399 38 616 36, 897 42, 642 + 52 + 5 666 + 8,027 — 1, 295 10 220 9, 869 10, 288 8, 536 — 67 + 1, 332 _ 15, 037 10 239 10, 085 9, 560 8,641 9, 033 8, 735 10, 488 + 6, 399 + 1 205 + 1,349 —926 _. 13, 122 8,814 10, 143 9,267 9, 964 11, 389 10, 528 10, 762 + 3, 159 —2, 574 — 386 — 1,495 Calendar years Calendar year total: 1946 1947 1948 1949 - - Quarterly total, not adjusted for seasonal: 1947: Third quarter .. .. Fourth quarter 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter . _ _ _ ._ _ _ __ . _ _ _ , 1950: First quarter . Second quarterl Third quarter _ 1 Preliminary pstimates based on incomplete data. Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget. 32 Excess of receipts (+) or payments ( — ) .. _ 12, 235 10, 760 + 1,475 9 303 11, 105 — 1 803 9,700 10, 700 + 1, 000 NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents. U. S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D. C. Price 15 cents per copy; $1.75 per year; $2.25 foreign