Full text of Economic Indicators : October 1949
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81st Congress, 1st Session §t Louis Public I/bran Economic Indicators OCTOBER 1949 Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1949 JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT (Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming, Chairman EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey, Vice Chairman FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania JOHN J. SPARKMAN, Alabama PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio FRANK BUCHANAN, Pennsylvania JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts THEODORE J. KBEPS, Staff Director GROVER W. ENSLBY, Associate Staff Director JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINTJRESOLUTION [S. J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House oj Representatives oj the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Committee on the Economic Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Committee on the Economic Report; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. To the Members of Congress: From the time the Joint Committee on the Economic Report was established its members realized that one of its basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture of current economic trends and developments. Fortunately, the joint committee found that Economic Indicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiled monthly by the Council of Economic Advisers, admirably filled this need. While this material was prepared originally for the use of the President, the Council, and other officials in the executive offices, the Council made it available to the joint committee. Other Members of Congress also expressed an interest in being able to obtain a quick picture of current economic facts without having to go through voluminous and specialized documents. In addition businessmen, farm leaders, labor organizations, and representatives of the press and radio indicated their desire for this information. Accordingly, the joint committee provided the Congress and the public with a limited number of copies of Economic Indicators as a committee print pending final action on authorizing the publication on a more permanent basis. As is indicated above such legislation has now been passed and the committee will issue the report on a regular monthly basis. Comments or suggestions with respect to possible improvements in this presentation will always be welcome. 11 for FRASER Digitized Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report. Letter of Transmittal Hon. JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report, United States Congress, Washington, D. C. DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the Joint Committee on the Economic Report in making Economic Indicators available to the Congress as a whole and to the general public, in accordance with Public Law 120, Eightyfirst Congress. In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has found it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts showing current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a better position to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the improvement and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services. In this undertaking the Council has the full cooperation of the several agencies of the Federal Government that collect statistical material. In many cases these agencies supply advance estimates for use in Economic Indicators. While the charts are drawn through the courtesy of the Graphics Unit in the Office of the Secretary of Commerce, the Council takes complete responsibility for the graphic presentation. This material has proven useful to the President, the Council, the executive departments, and the Congress. Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and consumer organizations with whom we regularly consult. We believe that the Congress is performing a service of real value by making this material available. Sincerely yours, Chairman. ^^^vCt^, Vice Chairman. / 111 Contents THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET The Nation's Economic Budget Page 1 PRICES Consumers' Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers Stock Prices 2 3 4 5 EMPLOYMENT Labor Force Nonagricultural Employment—Selected Industries Average Weekly Hours—Selected Industries Work Stoppages 6 7 8 9 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Weekly Production—Selected Indicators Production of Selected Durable Manufactures Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures New Construction New Housing Starts Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment New Corporate Security Issues Inventories and Sales Merchandise Exports and Imports 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 PURCHASING POWER National Income Corporate Profits Personal Income Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving Per Capita Income Average Hourly Earnings—Selected Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Selected Industries Farm Income , Personal Consumption Expenditures , Consumer Credit 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE Bank Loans and Investments Money Supply Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public iv 30 31 32 THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET Economic activity changed little between the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Inventories were liquidated at a less rapid rate, while other business investment remained at about the same level. Consumer income and expenditures dropped moderately. (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) J 1949,2nd Quarter TOTAL EXCESS OF EXPENDITURES (-), RECEIPTS (+) (Gross National Product) CONSUMERS Transfer payments" CONSUMER SAVING INCOME ^EXPENDITURES! BUSINESS EXCESS OF INVESTMENT INTERNATIONAL EXCESS OF INVESTMENT GOVERNMENT ( Federal, state and local) CASH DEFICIT "Transfer payments 1949, 3rd TOTAL Quarter (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) (Gross National Product) CONSUMERS Transfer payments.*. CONSUMER SAVING INCOME BUSINESS EXCESS OF INVESTMENT INTERNATIONAL EXCESS OF RECEIPTS GOVERNMENT ( Federal, state and local) ** CASH DEFICIT ansfer payments-' SOURCE: SEE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JULY 1949, APPENDIX A. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS PRICES CONSUMERS' PRICES Consumers' prices rose moderately in August, mainly because of a rise in food prices. Apparel and housefurnishings prices dropped again for the tenth successive month. Other prices rose a little. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE 1943 1940 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1935-39=100] Period 1939 monthly average 1940 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948: August September October November... December 1949: January February March April May June July August All items . 99 4 100. 2 105. 2 116. 5 123 6 125. 5 128. 4 139. 3 159. 2 171.2 174 5 174. 5 173 6 172. 2 171 4 170 9 169. 0 169 5 169. 7 169 2 169. 6 168 5 168.8 Food 95 2 96. 6 105 5 123. 9 138 0 136. 1 139 1 159. 6 193 8 210. 2 216 6 215. 2 211 5 207. 5 205 0 204 8 199. 7 201 6 202 8 202 4 204. 3 201 7 202. 6 NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities. Source: Department of Labor. Apparel 100 5 101. 7 106 3 124. 2 129 7 138. 8 145 9 160. 2 185 8 198. 0 199 7 201 0 201 6 201 4 200 4 196 5 195 1 193 9 192 5 191 3 190 3 188 5 187 4 Rent 104 3 104. 6 106 2 108. 5 108 0 108. 2 108. 3 108. 6 111. 2 117.4 117 7 118. 5 118 7 118. 8 119 5 119 7 119. 9 120 1 120. 3 120 4 120. 6 120. 7 120. 8 Fuel, electricity; and refrigeration House fur* nishings 99 0 99. 7 102 2 105. 4 107 7 109. 8 110. 3 112.4 121. 1 133.9 136 8 137. 3 137. 8 137. 9 137 8 138 2 138. 8 138 9 137. 4 135 4 135. 6 135 6 135.8 101. 3 100. 5 107 3 122. 2 125. 6 136. 4 145. 8 159.2 184. 4 195. 8 196 3 198. 1 198. 8 198. 7 198. 6 196. 5 195. 6 193. 8 191. 9 189 5 187. 3 186. 8 184. 8 Miscellaneous 100 7 101. 1 104 0 110. 9 115 8 121. 3 124. 1 128. 8 139. 9 149.9 152 4 152. 7 153 7 153. 9 154 0 154 1 154. 1 154. 4 154. 6 154. 5 154. 2 154 3 154. 8 WHOLESALE PRICES Wholesale prices in September averaged slightly higher than in August. Farm and food prices fluctuated considerably during the month, ending substantially lower. Industrial prices advanced during the month. PERCENT OF. 1926 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE 220 200 60 1949 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR." COU'NCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1926=100] All commodities Period 1941 monthty average 1942 monthly average 1946 monthly average June 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948- August September October November December 1949: January February _ March April. i ^ «,avj _ _ M June JulyAugust September *_ _ _ Week ended: September 6 13 20__,. 27 2 October 4 1 2 _ „ _„ . _ _. __ _ - _ _ _ _ _ _ ___ — _ _ _ „ _ _ _ Estimate based on change in weekly index. Data became available after chart^was prepared. Source: Department of Labor. Farm products Foods Other than farm products and foods 87. 3 98 8 121. 1 112 9 152. 1 165. 1 169. 8 168. 9 165 4 164. 0 162.4 160. 6 158. 1 158 4 156. 9 155 7 154. 5 153. 6 153 0 154. 1 82. 4 105 9 148. 9 140 1 181. 2 188. 3 191. 5 189. 9 183. 5 180. 8 177. 3 172. 5 168. 3 171. 5 170. 5 171. 2 168. 8 166. 2 162. 3 163. 3 82 7 99 6 130. 7 112 9 168. 7 179. 1 189 8 186. 9 178 2 174. 3 170. 2 165. 8 161. 5 162. 9 162. 9 163 8 162.4 161. 3 160. 6 161. 7 89. 0 95 5 109. 5 105 6 135. 2 151.0 153. 3 153. 6 153. 4 153. 6 153. 1 152.9 151.8 150.7 148.9 146.8 145. 6 145. 1 145. 1 146.0 153.0 154 6 154. 0 152. 4 152. 5 162. 1 1 65. 6 363. 1 159. 8 161. 3 161.0 164.4 163.2 158. 9 159. 6 144. 9 145. 4 145. 5 145. 3 145.3 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Farm prices rose from August to September, reflecting chiefly an increase in prices of meat animals. PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE MONTHLY AVERAGE ^ 300 \ PRICES RECEIVED 300 250 PRICES PAID (INCL. INTEREST, TAXES) PARITY RATIO* 100 50 I 1939 40 I I 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 I I I I J F M A M J 48 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J 1947 1948 I I J A I t S 0 I I N D 1949 * RATIO OF PRICES RECEIVED TO PRICES PAID, INTEREST, AND TAXES. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Prices paid by Prices farmers (includ- Parity ratio 8 received ing interest by farmers * and taxes) * Period 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948: August September October November December 1949: January February March April May June July August _.„ September .. - - _ - . „..„ . .. .. . _ „. 77 95 124 159 192 195 202 233 278 287 124 132 150 162 169 172 193 231 249 293 290 277 271 268 251 250 249 247 247 94 106 119 116 117 121 120 115 117 116 111 109 108 268 258 261 260 256 252 249 245 249 248 245 246 246 245 245 244 243 242 108 105 106 106 104 103 102 101 103 1 August 1909-July 1914=100. *a 1910-14= 100. Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, and taxes. Source: Department of Agriculture. I n STOCK PRICES Stock prices of industrials and utilities reached new 1949 peaks in mid-September but ended the month slightly below those peaks. Railroads rose through the month. PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 AVERAGE 175 175 150 1947 1948 1949 SOURCE: STANDARD AND POOR'S CORPORATION. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1935-39 = 100] Combined index l Period Weekly average: 1939 1942 1946 1948 1948: August September October November December1949: January _ . February March April May June July August __ . Spntftmber Week ended: Sentember 7 14___ 21 _ ..«- ...-. Industrials Railroads Utilities 94. 2 69.4 139. 9 124. 4 127. 1 125.7 127.8 120.4 119.4 121.0 117.2 118. 0 118. 5 117.7 112. 0 117. 8 121. 9 123. 8 94.8 71. 3 143.4 130. 6 133. 5 131.7 134.3 126.4 125.5 127.3 122.7 123. 7 124. 2 123.4 117. 0 123.4 128. 2 130.3 74. 7 66. 1 143. 0 114. 7 119. 7 120.4 120.9 108. 8 105.8 105. 9 99.6 97. 4 97. 1 95.8 88. 4 90. 6 94. 6 95. 1 98. 6 61. 3 120.2 96.2 97.3 97.3 97.4 94.2 92.9 94. 2 94.4 95. 3 96. 1 95.3 93.0 95.4 98. 5 100.0 122.8 125. 3 123.0 124. 2 129. 1 132. 1 129. 4 130. 6 94. 1 96. 0 94. 3 96. 1 99.6 100. 1 99.8 100.3 28 _ 1 Combined index prior to June 23, 1948. was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials, 20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads, and 31 utilities. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation. Digitized for97073—49FRASER EMPLOYMENT LABOR FORCE Civilian employment dropped more than 500,000 from August to September, largely because of a decrease in agricultural employment. However, the labor force dropped by nearly 900,000 as young people returned to school, causing a decrease of -about 300,000 in unemployment. MILLIONS OF PERSONS MILLIONS OF PERSONS 70 UNEMPLOYMENT NONAGRICULTURAL i i i s > UNEMPLOYMENT— MAGNIFIED 1944 1946 1947 EMPLOYMENT I { I ! I SCALE 1948 MONTHLY A V E R A G E COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE : DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE- [Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over] Civilian employment1 Period 1939 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average.-. 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average... 1948: AugustSeptember October November December _ 1949: January February March __ April May „ June July August September Total labor force, including armed forces 55, 600 65, 890 60, 820 61, 608 62, 748 64, 511 63, 578 63, 166 63, 138 62, 828 61, 546 61, 896 62, 305 62, 327 63, 452 64, 866 65, 278 65, 104 64, 222 Total 45, 750 53, 960 55, 250 58, 027 59, 378 61, 245 60, 312 60, 134 59, 893 59, 434 57, 414 57, 168 57, 647 57, 819 58, 694 59, 619 59, 720 59, 947 59,411 In nonagricultural industries 36, 140 45, 010 46, 930 49, 761 51, 405 52, 801 51, 590 51, 506 51, 932 52, 059 50, 651 50, 174 50, 254 49, 999 49, 720 49, 924 50, 073 51, 441 51, 254 In agriculture 9, 610 8, 950 8,320 8, 266 7,973 8,444 8,723 8,627 7,961 7,375 6,763 6, 993 7,393 7,820 8,974 9,696 9,647 8,507 8, 158 Armed forces 370 11, 260 3,300 1,440 1,307 1, 325 1,366 1,391 1,414 1,453 1,468 1, 508 1,491 1,492 1,469 1,468 1,463 1,468 1,459 Unemployment 9,480 670 2,270 2, 142 2,064 1,941 1,899 1,642 1,831 1,941 2, 664 3, 221 3, 167 3,016 3,289 3,778 4,095 3,689 3,351 1 Includes part-time workers and those who had jobs but were not at work for such reasons as vacation, illness, bad weather, temporary lay-off, and industrial disputes. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. N<ONAGRICULTURAL EMPLO1f MENT - SELECTED INDUSTRIES In A ugust, employment in industries manufacturing durabh3 goods increased slightly for the first time since last fall In nondurables, the August increase was sizable. Co istructic>n employment continued at high levels. MILL IONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS 9.0 MILLI ONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS 8.0 DURABLE MANUFACTURING NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING 1947 8.5 \ ^^^^U——^ "~ ""*" ^ - •-*>—*.-• -~~~~ 7.5 jD^0""X"OSV*VCv 1948 80 ***x_ 7.0 1949 ^^^X. 6.5 7.5 "~^— 1949 6.0 7.0 1 0 J 1 F 1 M 1 A 1 M 1 J 1 J 1 A I S 1 O 0 "~ 1 N D 3.0 1 J 1 F 1 A 1 M 1 J 1 J 1 A 1 S 1 O 1 N ^ D TRADE 2.5 10.0 '^^-^^^ ^^^'-^~""~ '94\ """"---. 95 1949 ^°^^ ''' ^\ ^^^^ 1.5 1 M 10.5 CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION 2.0 ISF^^--'/' 1947 9.0 t(^^^>^^^^ f 1948 ,'' s'' ______ -f-^ 1947 8.5 1.0 0 "~" J 1 1 F 1 M 1 A 1 M 1 J 1 J 1 A 1 S 1 O 0 "~ 1 N D J 1 1 F 1 M 1 A 1 M 1 J 1 J 50URCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1 A 1 S I O 1 N O COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers J ] Manufacturing Period 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 194G monthly average _ _ 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average _ __ _ _ 1948: July _ _ „ _ _ August September October _ November December 1949: January February March April _ _ _ _ _ May June3 Julv 3 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ August Total 10, 078 17, 381 14,461 15,247 15, 286 15, 155 15, 400 15, 617 15, 514 15, 368 15, 174 14, 782 14, 649 14, 475 14, 177 13, 877 13, 885 13, 755 14, 088 Durable goods Nondurable goods Contract construction (22) () (2) 8,373 8, 315 8,232 8, 271 8, 360 8, 393 8, 352 8, 258 8, 044 7,923 7, 819 7, 656 7, 441 7,396 7, 255 7,305 (22) (2) () 6, 874 6, 970 6, 923 7, 129 7, 257 7, 121 7,016 6, 916 6, 738 6, 726 6, 656 6, 521 6, 436 6, 489 6, 500 6, 783 1, 150 1, 567 1, 661 1, 982 2, 165 2, 348 2, 384 2, 369 2,334 2, 287 2,200 2, 016 1, 926 1, 947 2, 036 2, 137 2, 205 2,279 2,333 Trade 6, 705 7, 322 8, 815 9, 196 9,491 9, 363 9, 366 9, 522 9, 654 9, 807 10, 273 9, 388 9, 292 9,310 9, 478 9, 342 9, 327 9, 205 9, 212 Finance and service 4,610 5, 187 5, 994 6, 427 6, 515 6, 608 6, 592 6, 574 6, 531 6, 503 6,481 6, 454 6, 447 6,469 6,525 6, 567 6, 603 6, 626 6, 611 Government Transportation and ^ (Federal, public State, local) utilities 3, 987 6, 049 5, 607 5, 454 ,613 , 504 , 533 , 668 , 694 , 685 , 994 , 764 , 737 , 761 , 775 , 813 , 772 , 707 5, 815 2, 912 3, 619 4,023 4, 122 4, 151 4, 212 4, 213 4, 189 4, 188 4, 1 66 4, 158 4,054 4, 024 3, 975 3, 991 4, 021 4, 0,30 4, 010 4, 000 Mining 845 917 852 943 981 974 1, 006 1, 007 1, 000 999 1,002 991 986 981 984 974 970 949 968 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, arid personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricuitural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 6) which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at wrork because of industrial disputes; and which are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. 2 Not available. 3 Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—These are revised series and do not agree with data previously published in Economic Indicators. Source: Department of Labor. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES Average weekly hours in both durable and nondurable manufacturing rose in August, according to prelimnary data. The rise in nondurables was a continuation of a movement toward longer work weeks that started in May. HOUF*S PER WEEK -HOURS PER WEEK NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING DURABLE MANUFACTURING 42 42 40 —vy^l^AA/vv 40 V^A. ^"""^Hr\s~ >C- y 38 38 36 36 34 34 0 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 | I 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1948. 1947 1 1 1 I 1I I 1 1 1 I 1949 1 11 1 11 1 1 M 1 1947 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I1 1948 M 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1949 1950 RETAIL TRADE-GENERAL MERCHANDISE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION 42 42 40 40 38 38 * 36 v/~^K/~ 34 0 , 1 1 1 M ! 1 | | | 1 0 1950 ' i i | i i i i i i ii 1947 ' -Art^A^^/ -^-—' ^>/ 34 , , i,,,,7 1949 1948 36 0 i i i i i 1 t t i ii 1 11111 111 11 1947 1948 1950 i l l t i 1 i I l It 1949 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Manufacturing r Period 1939 monthly average __ 1943 monthly average. 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948: July August September October November _ _ _ _ December 1949: January __ __ February _ March April M __ _ _ _ _ _ j_ a yj _ June 3 Julv 3 August 1950 COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Hours per week, selected industries 1 2 3 l i I t 1 1 l l 1 1 1 Total _ _ 37.7 44. 9 40. 4 40. 4 40. 1 39. 8 40. 1 39. 8 40. 0 39. 8 40. 1 39. 5 39. 4 39. 1 38.4 38. 6 38. 8 38. 8 39. 0 Durable goods (2) (2) (2) 40. 6 40 5 39. 9 40 6 40. 0 40 7 40. 4 40 7 40. 1 39 9 39 5 39 0 39. 0 39 2 38. 8 39 1 : Retail trade, Building mer- construction Nondurable general chandise goods (2) (2) (2) 40. 1 39 6 39. 6 39 5 39. 6 39 1 39. 2 39 3 38. 7 38 8 38 6 37 6 38 1 38 5 38 8 38 9 (2) (2) (2) 36 3 36 6 37. 6 37 4 36. 3 36 0 35. 8 37 5 36. 5 36 3 36 1 36 6 36 3 36 8 37 4 (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) 37 3 37. 8 37 8 37 6 37 3 36 4 37 8 37 0 36 5 36 1 36 4 37 2 37 1 37 1 (2) For production and related workers. Not available. Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—These are revised series and do not agree with data previously published in Economic Indicators. Source: Department of Labor. WORK STOPPAGES With no work stoppages of important size in August, man-days of idleness continued at a low level. MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE I5 15 939 1940 1941 I94E 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1947 1949 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF L A B O R . Number of stoppages Period 1939 1941 1942 1943 1944 .. 1945 1946 ___ _ 1947 1948 _ . -__ 1948: July _ _ .._ August September October November December 1949' January l 1 February March * April* May * June l * July August i 1 Beginning in period 2, 613 4,288 2,968 3,752 4,956 4,750 4,985 3,693 3,419 394 355 299 256 216 144 225 225 275 400 450 375 300 375 Preliminary estimate. Source: Department of Labor. In effect during month 614 603 553 468 388 283 400 350 400 500 600 550 525 550 Workers involved in stoppages Beginning in period (thousands) 1, 171 2,363 840 1,981 2, 116 3,467 4,600 2, 170 1,960 218 143 158 110 111 40 70 80 500 175 250 575 110 150 Man-days idle during period In effect during month (thousands) Monthly average (thousands) 307 232 267 194 189 93 110 120 540 225 320 660 225 250 1,484 1,921 349 1, 125 727 3, 169 9,667 2,883 2,842 2,670 2, 100 2,540 2,060 1,910 713 800 650 3, 600 1,800 3,200 4,600 2,100 2,000 Percent of estimated working time 0.28 .32 .05 . 15 .09 .47 1.43 . 41 .37 .36 . 26 .33 . 27 . 26 . 09 . 11 . 10 .46 .25 .45 . 61 . 31 .26 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Industrial production more than recovered the July drop in August and increased slightly further in September, according to preliminary estimates. The increase in manufactures, chiefly nondurables, was almost offset by a drop in minerals. 250 - 250 200 - 200 150 - 150 100 - J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O SOURCE:BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted] Points in total index, 1935-39 average for total=100 Indexes, 1935-39=100 Period 1935-39 monthly average __ 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948: August September October November.. December 1949: January February March. April Mav June Julv. August *_ September l 10 Manufactures Total industrial Nondura- Minerals production Total Durable goods ble goods 100 239 203 170 187 192 191 192 195 195 192 191 189 184 179 174 169 162 170 171 100 258 214 177 194 198 197 199 202 201 199 198 196 193 184 179 175 168 177 180 100 360 274 192 220 225 223 225 231 229 231 227 225 223 212 201 194 185 194 195 1 Preliminary estimate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 100 176 166 165 172 177 177 178 179 178 173 175 173 168 162 161 161 155 164 168 100 132 137 134 149 155 159 156 158 161 156 149 149 136 148 145 134 123 128 118 Manufactures Durable goods 38 136 104 73 83 85 84 85 87 87 87 86 85 84 81 76 74 70 73 74 Nondura- Minerals ble goods 47 83 78 77 81 83 82 83 84 83 81 82 81 79 76 75 75 73 77 79 15 20 21 21 23 24 24 24 24 25 24 23 23 21 23 22 20 19 20 18 N O WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORS Scheduled production of steel in September ran above August rates, though there was a slight drop during the last week. Electric power production reached the highest level since February 1949 and was just above that of a year ago. Bituminous coal mining was practically at a standstill with the strike in effect. Cars and trucks continued to roll off of assembly lines at near record numbers. MILLIONS OF TONS BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS STEEL ELECTRIC POWER 1949 j F M i A i M i J J A i i S I O N M I L L I O N S OF SHORT TONS 3.0 D J F M A M J J A I I S AMERICAN N D THOUSANDS 160 S SOURCES: I 0 IRON AND STEEL O N INSTITUTE, EDISON ELECTRIC I N S T I T U T E , DEPARTMENT OF THf INTERIOR, WARDS AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS. Steel (thousands of net tons) Electric power, by utilities (millions of kilowatt-hours) Bituminous coal (thousands of short tons) 1 Weekly average: 1947 1948 1 637 1, 700 4 821 5, 300 2 008 1, 906 90, 860 100, 670 Week ended: 1948: Sept. 4 11 18 25 Oct. 2 9 1, 716 1, 703 1 732 1, 732 1, 738 1, 757 5, 5, 5 5, 5 5, 470 166 426 461 449 482 2, 042 2, 236 2 034 2,036 2, 009 2,056 96, 484 74, 744 88, 531 92, 230 115, 469 113,312 1, 591 1, 552 1, 597 1, 589 12 560 151 5, 5, 5, 5, 2 5 544 258 579 556 521 1,342 1, 196 1, 400 338 2 304 138, 117, 152, 150, 143, Period 1949: Sept. 3 10 17 24 Oct 1 8 D _ __ _ Cars and trucks (number) 2 796 703 228 815 817 1 2 Daily average for week. Data became available after chart was prepared. Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, and Ward's Automotive Reports. 11 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE MANUFACTURES Production of most durables recovered their July drops in August. Output of machinery continued at its July rate. PERCE NT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE LUMBER AND PRODUCTS IRON AND STEEL 250 200 150 100 r\j ( M l 1 M 40 42 /***-* IN/ - ^ s X ^V 1 1 44- 46 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 48 1 1 1 Ii 1 1 11 1 111 1947 250 r\ V MONTHLY AVERAGE SEASONALLY 200 *"V 150 1 M 1 1 1 It 1i 1 1948 100 >*1 H M i f i | i i 40 1949 42 /"- 250 200 1 50 1 00 V ~-S ^~^\\ V 250 200 150 / M l 42 M M 1 46 48 1 I I i I 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 11 11 1 i 1 i 11 1 1i 1 I 1 1 1947 1948 1949 MONTHLY AVERAGE SE 300 / 40 350 j MONTHLY AVERAGE 300 44 NONFERROUS METALS AND PRODUCTS MACHINERY 350 ADJUSTED 1 1I11 1 1 1 111 44 46 48 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I1 1947 1948 1 1 i 1 I 1 1M 1 1 100 A /M A 1 i i i 1 1i I I 40 42 1949 44 46 48 r\V ^^XXN. V" 1 I 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 II 1947 1 1 1 i 1 1 11 1 1i 1 1 1 M 1948 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE S Y S T E M . C O U N C I L OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S [1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted] Iron and steel Period 1935-39 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948: July August September. October November December 1949: January February March April May June July 1 1 August 1 _ _ __ __ _ _ .. Nonferrous metals and products Lumber and products Machinery 100 208 183 150 195 208 100 129 109 131 143 145 100 443 343 240 276 277 100 267 204 157 187 193 201 207 214 221 224 223 142 148 143 147 145 143 269 271 273 277 276 277 185 186 192 192 187 184 228 232 233 219 204 177 156 178 129 123 129 126 126 123 115 128 268 262 252 240 232 225 216 216 183 185 183 167 145 133 128 142 Preliminary estimate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 12 1 11I 11 1949 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE MANUFACTURES Most nondurobles in August were back to June production rates. Textiles more than recovered their vacation drop, while chemicals made no recovery. PERCE MT OF 1935-39 A V E R A G E PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS 300 300 MONTHLY AVERAGE 200 100 0 J 1 1 40 " 1 1 42 1 I 1 44 46 1 J. 48 200 ^T~v"-v^ i 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 I 1 II 1947 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I! 1948 100 II i 0 A/ v J ! 1 40 1949 r-~vH 1 1 1 J J_ 1 1 42 44 46 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 11 48 MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS 1949 400 MONTHLY AVERAGE A A 300 300 •* 200 200 0 1948 CHEMICAL PRODUCTS 400 100 1 1 1 t 11 11 1 11 1 1 1 1 i I i 11 11 1947 ^— i i i i i i i i i 40 42 44 46 48 - * "^•—^ ** - " ^v^. / / 100 I I 1 I 1 1 1 1 t 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 I! 1947 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1948 0 1 1 40 1949 1 | 42 | | 44 1 | 46 | 48 II 1 i 11 I l 1 i l 1 1 1 I! 1947 1 1 1 1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1 II 1948 1 1! 1949 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted] Textiles and products Period 1935—39 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthlv average . 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average. _ . 1948: July August September October. __ November December _ 1949: January February March April _ _ _ _ « May June July l August 3 Digitized for 97073—49 FRASER _ _ _ _ «_ _ _ __ _..____ _ __ _ __ Petroleum and coal products Manufactured food products Chemical products 100 153 146 162 163 169 100 185 235 173 193 218 100 145 151 150 157 159 100 384 284 236 251 254 154 166 168 167 164 156 217 221 207 217 227 231 160 156 163 161 159 158 251 259 257 255 257 257 160 157 142 129 123 127 121 139 228 221 213 209 207 202 197 200 160 162 162 162 162 165 162 163 257 250 245 237 234 231 226 226 1 Preliminary estimate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 13 NEW CONSTRUCTION While new public construction held constant in September, the value of private construction rose slightly. Total new construction in August and September equaled the figure for the corresponding months a year ago. MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2,000 2,000 WON fHLY AVERAGE •::-:'-':'- 1,500 :^::::-; P 1,000 1% j 1839 m 1 1i1 11 '•<::-: 1942 1944 i946 1947 1948 1949 1947 *INCLUOeS PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] Private construction Period 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1944 monthly average__ 1946 monthly average _ 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average. _ _. _ _ _ 1948: July August September October November December 1949: January. _ _ _ February __ _ March. _ April May June Julv August 2 September 1 2 Total new construction 526 1, 118 345 871 1, 194 1, 565 1, 874 1,934 1, 901 1, 814 1, 646 1,447 1,293 1, 172 1,267 1,378 1,585 1, 745 1, 841 1, 893 1,902 Total private Residential (nonfarm) 317 251 152 688 932 1, 214 1,423 1,454 1,427 1,355 1,256 1, 129 1,002 905 951 997 1,117 1,239 1,309 1,335 1,345 Includes public residential construction. Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor, 14 176 110 45 265 438 602 707 720 707 670 615 547 475 400 420 445 530 600 650 660 680 Other 141 141 107 422 493 612 716 734 720 685 641 582 527 505 531 552 587 639 659 675 665 Federal, State, and local! 208 867 193 184 262 351 451 480 474 459 390 318 291 267 316 381 468 506 532 558 557 NEW HOUSING STARTS Continued high volume of rental construction helped the number of nonfarm housing starts to rise in August to 98,000 or 12 percent above August 1948. Preliminary data for September indicate the level will continue at about the August rate. THOUSANDS OF UNITS THOUSANDS OF UNITS 125 125 75 50 25 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. New nonfarm units started Month 1947 January February March April May _ _ June July August September October _ November December _ _ iAC*J _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Total Monthly average __ __ 1948 39, 300 42, 800 56, 000 67, 100 72, 900 77, 200 81, 100 86, 300 93, 800 94, 000 79, 700 58, 800 53, 500 50, 100 76, 400 99, 500 100, 300 97, 800 95, 000 86, 600 82, 200 73, 400 63, 600 52, 900 849, 000 931, 300 70, 750 77, 600 1949 50, 000 50, 400 69, 400 88, 300 95, 400 1 100, 000 1 96, 000 1 98, 000 1 Preliminary estimate. Source: Department of Labor. 15 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Nonagricultura! business firms reported in a recent SEC-Commerce survey expected expenditures of $I7.S billion on new plant and equipment for !949. Actual expenditures for 1st half of this year were I percent above 1st half of 1948 but estimate for 2nd half was about 14 percent under actual expenditures for the corresponding period last year. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 25 ANN UAL TOTALS TRANSPORTATION AND ELECTRIC AND GAS UTILITIES 1939 1941 1945 SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. [Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal] Period Total * Manufacturing Mining Transportation Railroad 1939 1941 _ 1945 1947 _ _ 1948 3 1949 1947: Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948: First quarter __ Second quarter _ Third quarter Fourth quarter _ _ . 1949: First quarter. _ _ _ _ _ _ Second quarter Third quarter 3 3 _ _ _ Fourth quarter 1 2 3 _ _ __ __ __ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . _ _ 5, 200 8, 190 6, 630 16, 180 19, 230 17, 920 16, 560 19, 760 16, 680 19, 280 19, 320 21, 640 17, 840 18, 640 18, 200 17, 000 1, 930 3,400 3, 210 7,460 8, 340 7, 120 7,480 9, 160 7,200 8, 560 8, 360 9, 280 7,400 7, 520 7,080 6,480 380 680 440 690 800 740 720 840 720 800 800 880 760 760 720 680 280 560 550 910 1, 320 1,360 920 1, 200 1,080 1, 240 1, 320 1, 640 1,440 1,520 1, 360 1, 120 Electric and gas utilities Other 280 340 320 800 700 540 800 760 720 760 680 680 520 560 560 520 480 710 630 1, 900 2, 680 3, 100 2,000 2,480 2,000 2,560 2,760 3,400 2,720 3, 120 3, 240 3,320 Commercial and miscellaneous 2 1, 850 2,490 1,480 4, 430 5,390 5,080 4, 640 5,360 4,960 5,360 5,440 5,760 5,040 5, 160 5, 200 4,960 Excludes agriculture. Commercial and miscellaneous composed of trade, service, finance, and communication. Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business, as reported by business firms, for third and fourth quarters. NOTE.-—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultuial investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other data. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000. Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted). 16 NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES Total proceeds from new corporate security issues more than doubled in the 2nd quarter reflecting a rise in both fixed and working capital financing. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3.0 3.0 1939 SOURCE: 1943 SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION. [Millions of dollars] Proposed uses of net proceeds Estimated net proceeds Period New money Total 1939 1943 1945 1946 1947 1948 quarterly average quarterly average quarterly average quarterly average quarterly average quarterly average __ _ __ Plant and equipment Working capital Retirement . of debt and stock » 529 287 1,475 1,689 1, 617 1, 604 81 77 270 820 1, 148 1,392 43 35 159 529 852 1,035 39 42 111 291 296 357 448 210 1,206 869 469 212 1947: Third quarter Fourth quarter _ _ 1,374 2,311 884 2,000 692 1,654 192 347 490 310 1948* First quarter . Second quarter. Third quarter Fourth quarter . 1,614 1,663 1,267 1,873 1,400 1,353 1,045 1, 767 845 1,080 764 1,451 555 274 281 316 214 309 221 105 1,056 2,311 850 1,968 699 1,615 152 353 206 343 1949: First quarter _ 2 . Second quarter _ _ _ _ - _ _ 1 2 Includes small amount for other purposes. Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Securities and Exchange Commission. 17 INVENTORIES AND SALES August soles of manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers showed more than seasonal upturns. The trend of inventory liquidation in recent months continued through August in manufacturing, but was slackened in department stores, while wholesalers added to their stocks. BILL IONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RETAIL WHOLESALE 20 20 INVEC T(DRIES \.'-* \ ,»• INVE N1 ORIES 1 0 y te^& 0 1 1 ( 1 40 42 ,„ 46 S/ L "£r s^ L :s i in 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 44 *"" / 1 0 \ 48 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 II 1947 1948 1 1 1 II i 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 I ! 1 1 1 1 1 Y^^ i i iii 1 i i i i i 1 1947 1949 1948 1 1 1 1 ! 1 II 1 I 1 1949 PERCE MT OF 1935-1939 A V E R A C3E BILL IONS OF DOLLARS DEPARTMENT STORES MANUFACTURING 40 400 MONTHLY A V E R A G E MONTHLY A V E R A G E SE INVE NT ORIES y \ 30 >...'* / S /\L :s ^ , 300 v ^ \J?~ X. .-•* / 20 1 0 0 ./7^ > i~~ 42 44 46 1 00 i l l I i 1 1 1 l ii 48 1947 S OURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ] 1948 1 1 11 1 I1 1 1 1 1 0 /J i i i i i i i r 40 1949 4E 44 46 JJJJjJjJJJJ- I l 1 1 1 1 JLl 1 LL U 1 L I L I I i J. J_ Inventories 1 •-_ _ _. - _ _ _ _ _ ------ _ __ 1 2 3 4 5 -_ _ _ - _ 1948 Manufacturing Retail Inventories 1 Sales 3 Inventories 1 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1939 1941 _ __1943 1945 .. . 1946 1947 1948 1948- July August September October November December 1949' January February March April May June July August ^ 1947 48 3, 174 4, 182 3,684 4, 638 6, 665 8, 653 9,511 9, 177 9,420 9, 581 9,730 9, 714 9, 511 9,464 9, 479 9, 293 9,330 9, 153 9,002 9,090 9,210 2, 505 3, 620 4,273 4,983 6, 601 7, 754 8, 355 8, 630 8, 542 8, 489 8,083 8, 236 8, 158 7,732 7, 680 7, 890 7,422 7,498 7,718 7, 158 7,703 5,557 7, 663 7,361 7, 543 11, 226 13, 221 14, 969 14, 372 14, 490 14, 877 14, 937 15, 027 14, 969 14, 659 14, 479 14, 700 14, 458 14, 139 14, 182 13, 862 13, 866 3, 504 4, 624 5, 310 6,387 8, 399 9, 860 10, 784 10, 857 10, 893 10, 968 10, 894 10, 771 11, 062 10, 615 10, 588 10, 620 10, 767 10, 726 10, 681 10, 555 10, 600 Sales 2 4 11, 465 16, 960 19, 813 18, 353 24, 846 29, 851 34, 106 32, 580 32, 841 33, 380 33, 528 33, 810 34, 066 34, 409 34, 408 34, 223 34, 018 33, 565 33, 250 32, 367 31, 724 5,099 8, 168 12, 820 12, 873 12, 841 17, 076 19, 028 18. 972 19i 652 19, 902 18, 978 19, 648 19, 065 17, 880 18, 175 18, 451 17, 643 17, 741 17, 989 17, 113 18, 824 Book value, end of period. Monthly average for year and total for month. Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for month and retail book value of inventories, end of period. All dollar figures, except for retail sales, have been revised and do not agree with previously published data. Preliminary estimates. Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Digitized 18 for FRASER 1949 AND BOARD OF G O V E R N O R S OF THE FE DERAL RES E R V E SYSTEM Wholesale Sales 2 Period y/INVEJ^ T( )RIES 200 ^~s L ES 11ii11111 40 ^^^^ Department stores Inventories 3 Sales 3 1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted 102 131 155 166 213 255 291 285 285 290 290 296 291 278 276 283 280 273 265 256 253 106 133 168 207 264 286 302 311 309 309 308 289 305 295 281 277 294 292 285 280 282 Exports declined somewhat further in August but imports increased by 8 percent, the first substantial break in the decline in imports that has been going on since March. MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,600 1600 - 1,400 - 1,400 1,200 1,200 - 1,000 - 1,000 800 800 - 600 600 - 400 400 - 200 200 - 1936-38 1943 A M 1946 J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N O J F M A M d J A S O N D ** RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] Period Exports* Imports * Excess of exports 1936-38 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 247 1,080 877 849 1,278 1, 051 207 282 346 410 478 594 40 798 531 439 801 457 1948: July August September October November December 1,019 990 926 1,021 820 1, 285 563 606 560 600 554 720 456 384 366 421 266 565 1, 094 1,032 1, 159 1, 148 1,077 1, 104 897 881 590 568 632 534 539 527 456 491 504 464 527 614 538 578 441 390 1949: January February March. 1 April May June July August _ __ __ _ 1 J Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas. Recorded general merchandise imports. Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy, 19 PURCHASING POWER NATIONAL INCOME Notional income continued to decline in 3rd quarter, according to preliminary estimates. Compensation of employees held steady, while farm income ( part of proprietors' and rental) showed a significant drop. BILL ONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF OOL LARS 250 250 ANNUAL TOTALS ANNUAL RATETS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED TOTAL NAT IONAL INCOfo ^*~+^~~***^^ *\s^*^\^ _J^ CORPORATE PROFITS AND «—«~^ *^~\ 200 P '?//< 1 •/''m// ''4 y 1 50 '4&&4 ! 200 ^—^??5^^^^^^^ _^^^^^^T^^ g2SSS»^>^ NET INTEREST:, '**''«* M &> <-% ^^^ ^" •• •,*,/ •'// f ' V -_ ^^****- i INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT; PROPRIETORS' AND RENTAL INCOME * *' ^ ' "" *^ , ^'/>^ 'S ^ <" S * "> A. > ^ ' ' f % «• J^' - ?* 1 ' * /f "~ \ 'V " "' " " 'f ** ' ' y > r /, ' Ss , ' ' ^ ' ' j ISO 'f ^•mMMlMMM.gt ^~i ^ too 1 00 H = - | § H 'COMPENSATION OF! . [EMPLOYEES! ss $£ £$ 50 --. 50 ~~ -f ~ -_„- i- _!",. sr-^t 0 1944 1939 1947 _?£•* 1948 1 1 3 1949 4 i :. i 1 2 f 3 J 4 j j ! 1 I 3* 1 4 1 1949 1948 1947 2 O 2 1950 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (except as noted). [Billions of dollars] Period 1939 1944 1946___ 1947 1948 Total national income 72. 5 183.8 179.6 201. 7 226.2 Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment Compensation of employees Proprietors' and rental income Net/ interest 47.8 121. 2 117.0 127. 6 140.3 14.7 35. 5 41.3 45. 1 49.5 4.2 3. 1 3.0 3.4 3.8 Total Profits before taxes a5 5.8 24.0 18. 3 25. 6 32.6 Inventory valuation adjustment 24.3 23. 6 31.6 34. 8 -0.7 -. 3 -5. 3 -6.0 -2.2 33.0 35.0 36.6 34.5 -4. 5 -2. 0 -3. 3 + 1.2 28.4 24. 8 24. 3 + 2.3 +4.7 + 3.6 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949: First quarter- 1 Second quarter _ Third quarter 2 1 2 20 215. 1 224.9 230.4 234.3 135. 1 137.7 143. 3 144. 9 48.0 50.4 49. 9 49. 7 3. 6 3. 7 3.9 4. 1 225.3 2 222. 2 217.0 142.5 141.7 141.2 47. 8 46.7 43.6 4.2 4.3 4.3 Preliminary estimates. Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). 28. 5 33.0 33.3 35.7 2 30.8 29. 5 27. 9 2 CORPORATE PROFITS According to preliminary estimates for the 3rd quarter, corporate profits were slightly below the 2nd quarter rate. When allowance is made for inventory valuation adjustment, the decline was more substantial. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4 0 40 1950 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ( E X C E P T AS NOTED). COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Corporate profits before taxes Period 1929 1939 1944 1946 1947 1948 _ _ - 9.8 6.5 24. 3 23.6 31. 6 34.8 Corporate tax liability 1.4 1.5 13. 5 9. 6 12. 5 13. 6 Corporate profits after taxes Total 8.4 5.0 10. 8 13.9 19. 1 21.2 Dividend payments 5.8 3.8 4.7 5.8 7.0 7.9 Undistributed profits 2.6 1.2 6. 1 8. 1 12. 1 13.2 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949: First quarter.. 1 _ _ Second quarter Third quarter * _ 33.0 35.0 36. 6 34. 5 12.8 13. 7 14. 4 13. 6 20.2 21.3 22.2 20.9 7.6 7.7 7. 9 8.3 12.6 13. 6 14.3 12.6 28.4 24.8 24.3 11.2 9.7 9.6 17.3 15. 1 14.7 8.4 8.5 8.3 8.9 6.6 6.4 1 Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data. NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment. taxes and inventory valuation adjustment. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). See p. 20 for profits before 21 PERSONAL INCOME Total personal income rose about I percent in August. All major components except dividends contributed to the small increase. BILLIONS DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (939 SOURCE: 1944 1947 1948 J A S O N D 1947 1949 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N 1948 1949 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE D J F M A M J I 1950 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Total personal income Period 1939 1944 1946 1947 1948 „ _ - .... - 72.6 165.9 176.9 193. 5 211.9 Salaries, wages, Proprietors' Dividends and other and rental and personal labor income income interest 45.7 116.2 111.0 122. 0 135. 1 14. 7 35.5 41.2 45. I 49.5 9.2 10.6 13.2 14.8 16.2 Transfer payments 3.0 3.6 11.4 11.7 11. 1 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1948- June July August September. October November December 1949" January February March April Mav _ _ _ June July 1 August 1 _ _ _ __ __ 213.4 214. 5 215.4 216. 3 216.3 216.6 217.0 215. 7 212. 9 212.4 212. 5 213. 1 211. 9 209.7 211. 5 134.5 136. 6 138.5 139.7 140. 1 139.5 139. 1 138.6 137. 1 135.6 136.8 137. 1 136. 1 136.3 136.7 51.8 50.8 49. 5 49. 4 49. 0 49. 8 50. 3 49.0 47.2 47. 3 46.3 46. 7 46. 5 44. 2 45.5 Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. 22 15.9 16. 0 16.3 16.5 16. 8 16.9 16.9 17.0 17. 1 17. 1 17.2 17.3 17.2 17. 1 17.0 11.2 11. 1 11. I 10. 7 10.4 10.4 10. 7 11. 1 11.5 12.4 12.2 12. 0 12. 1 12. 1 12. 3 CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING Preliminary information for 3rd quarter indicates that disposable personal income dropped about twice as much as consumer spending, resulting in a reduction in the indicated rate of saving. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED). [Billions of dollars] Disposable personal income l Period 1939-. 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944__ 1945 1946 1947 1948 _ . _ ... __ ._ _ _ __. „__ _ __ . _ . 70.2 75.7 92. 0 116.2 131. 6 147.0 151. 1 158. 1 172.0 190.8 Less: Personal consumption expenditures Equals: Personal saving 67.5 72. 1 82.3 90.8 101. 6 111. 6 123. 1 147. 8 166.9 178.8 2.7 3.7 9.8 25.4 30.0 35.4 28.0 10.3 5. 1 12.0 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949: First quarter.. 2 Second quarter Third quarter 3 _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ __ __ _ 181.9 189.6 195. 2 196.2 195.0 194.2 190. 4 175.2 178. 7 180. 3 180.9 177.9 178.2 ' 176. 5 6.7 10.8 15. 0 15.3 17. 1 16.0 13. 9 1 Income less 2 Preliminary 3 taxes. estimates. Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). 23 PER CAPITA INCOME Per capita disposable income, in terms of real purchasing power, continued near peak levels in 3rd quarter. DOLLARS DOLLARS 1,600 1,600 ANNUAL R A T E S . S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D 1,200 800 CURRENT DOLLARS O 1 I 1939 I 1940 I 1941 I 1942 I 1943 I 1944 I 1945 I 1946 I 1947 I I 1948 1949 3 4 1947 1 I 2 I 3 4 1 1948 1939 _ .. 1940 1941__ 1942 1943 1944 _ _ 1945 1946 1947 . 1948 ... . _ _ __ 3 4 I 1949 Per capita disposable personal income l Current 1948 dollars* dollars $536 $923 574 981 691 1,125 -. 1,262 867 970 1,314 _> 1,065 1,405 1,082 1,389 1,342 1, 119 1,282 1, 194 1,302 1,302 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted Consumers' price index1 1948 = 100 58. 1 58.5 61.4 68.7 73.8 75.8 77.9 83.4 93.1 100.0 Not adjusted for seasonal variation 98.0 99.6 101.8 100.7 99.2 99.0 98. 7 1,273 1,248 1948- First quarter 1,296 1,301 Second quarter 1,328 1,305 Third quarter 1,328 1,319 Fourth quarter _ 1,315 1,326 1949: First quarter 4 1,304 Second quarter5 _ 1,317 Third quarter 1,290 1,273 1 Income less taxes. 3 Current dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base 1948=100. 3 The consumers' price index has been roughly adjusted to take account of the understatement from December 1941-February 1947. This adjustment is in line with the report of the Mitchell Committee. The unadjusted index will be found on page 2. 4 Preliminary estimates. 5 Estimates by Council of jEconomic Advisers; based on incomplete data. Source: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor (except as noted). Digitized 24 for FRASER 2 1950 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF L A B O R , ( E X C E P T AS NOTED). Period 2 AVERAGE HOURLY EAE1NIN'GS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES With many wage contract negotiations lagging, avercige hour y earnings in most industries changed little n the late summer months. DOLLA RS PER DOLL/1 RS PER HOUR HOUR 1.50 1.60 DURABLE MANUFACTURING NONDURABLE 1.40 1.50 1948 DOLLARS* ^~7* .£^s~* 1948 1.40 / / 1.20 1.30 / CURF ENT *C=^£ DOLLARS* 1.30 X - >, ^ pX> ^——~^ '"' ^ DOLLARS S^ CURRI NT DOLLARS I.I 0 1.20 O MANUFACTURING ==riii| 1947 . . i , . 1, i i . i i i i i i 1 ii iii 1 1 1 1 1 1 | I 1 1 1 1948 1949 1950 0 1.20 2.10 BUILDING CONSTRUCTION 1 1 1 1 1 | 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1947 1948 1950 1949 RETAIL TRADE-GENERAL MERCHANDISE I.I 0 2.00 f ^ .1.00 1.90 1948 DOLLARS*/"]/ 1948 DOLLARS* r^ l~**y~ .90 1.80 •** /"^^ CURRENT DOLLARS .80 1.70 0 M i n i , , . ,7 MIM! M 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 I 1947 l l I 1 I 1 1 I I 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 I 1 1 ! 1 ! 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1948 1949 1950 0 ^S*^ ' -"""^ ^CURRENT DOLLARS ! I I 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 I 1 I I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1947 1948 1 1 1 M l l III 1 1949 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1950 * NOT A V A I L A JLE PRIOR TO JANUARY 948 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Selected industries All manufacturingPeriod Current dollars 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948- July _ _ _ August September October November _ December 1949* January February March April __ May __ _ June4 Julv 4 August $0. 633 .961 1. 084 1.237 1.350 1.356 1.373 1.386 1.390 1. 397 1.400 1.405 1.401 1.400 1.401 1. 401 1.406 1. 409 1.400 1948 dollars 2 $1. 090 1. 302 1.300 1.329 1. 350 1. 336 1.347 1. 360 1.371 1.389 1.399 1.408 1.419 1.414 1.414 1.418 1.419 1.432 1.420 ] Durable goods manufacturing Current dollars (33) (3) () $1. 292 1.410 1.417 1.441 1.457 1.462 1.463 1.466 1.467 1.466 1.464 1.467 1.467 1.476 1.478 1.474 1948 dollars 2 (33) (3) () $1. 388 1.410 1.396 1.414 1.430 1.442 1.454 1. 465 1. 470 1.485 1.480 1.480 1.485 1.489 1.502 1.495 Nondurable goods manufacturing Current dollars (3) (33) () $1. 171 1.278 1.284 1.293 1.304 1.302 1.317 1.319 1.327 1.323 1. 323 1.321 1. 323 1.325 1. 332 1.320 1948 dollars 2 Building construction Current dollars (3) (33) () $1. 258 1.278 1. 265 1. 269 1.280 1.284 1.309 1.318 1.330 1. 340 1.336 1.333 1.339 1.337 1. 354 1. 339 (33) (3) () (3) $1. 848 1.862 1.874 1.895 1.892 1.906 1. 915 1. 918 1. 930 1. 933 1. 934 1. 930 1. 924 1. 922 (3) 1948 dollars 2 (33) (3) () (3) $1. 848 1.834 1. 839 1.360 1.866 1.895 1.913 1. 922 1.955 1. 953 1. 952 1. 953 1. 941 1.953 (3) General merchandise retail trade Current dollars (3) (33) () $0. 853 .910 . 916 .917 . 923 . 922 .918 .919 .943 .937 .933 . 934 . 960 .968 .951 (3< 1948 dollars 2 (3) (33) () $0. 916 .910 .902 . 900 .906 . 909 .913 . 918 . 945 .949 .942 . 942 . 972 . 977 . 966 3 () 1 2 3 4 Production and related workers. Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on base 1948=100. See note 3 to table on page 24. Not available. Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—These are revised series and do not agree with data previously published in Economic Indicators. Source: Department of Labor. 25 AVERAGE WEEKLY EAE>NIN'GS - SELECTED INDUSTFilES Average weekly earnings in most industries register*3d only rninor changes in July and August. DOLL ARS 65 * 60 1948 DOLLARS /^ < 55 \=~ 1948 DOLLARS* rv* 50 55 /^Cl RRENT DOLLARS 5O 45 45 40 1 1 i ,' ,U LI IJ 1 1 ! I 1 1947 1 I 1 1 1 1948 i i i i i 1 i i i i i s^^S^^* CURRENT DOLLARS l l ' U L ' l l L1 1 ' 1 i l l 0 J ' L1 i LL1 i i J 1 -H L l 1947 1950 1949 i i i ii 1948 i i i i i l,,l ,1 „!,, [ | | | | 1 | 1949 1950 45 80 BUILDING CONSTRUCTION RETAIL TRADE - GENERAL MERCHANDISE 40 75 70 1948 XX /I f~"^ DOLLAF*s* 1948 DOLLARS* 35 ^ -^>/'x^X'Jv^/^^^ ** 65 30 ^CURRENT C OLLARS ^^ CURRENT 60 0 WEEK NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING DURABLE MANUFACTURING 0 PER 60 DOLLARS 25 1 ! 1 ! t 1 1 1 1 M l 1 l i l 1947 1I 11 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1948 1 I 1 1 I- 1 l 1 1 l l 1949 0 i l I l l 1 1 1 I I l l l l 1 I| | 1 1 1 1 i j i j i 1947 1950 | |i j i 1949 1948 1 I 1 1 1 ( 1 1 I 1 I 1950 948 = 100 SOURCE : DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISORS [Selected industries J ] All manufacturing Durable-goods manufacturing Non-durable-goods manufacturing Building construction General merchandise retail trade Period Current dollars 1948 dollars 2 Current dollars 1948 dollars 2 Current dollars 1948 dollars 2 Current dollars $23. 86 $41. 07 43. 14 58.46 43. 74 52.45 $50. 44 $52. 46 $46. 96 49. 97 $56. 35 53. 67 $68. 85 50. 61 50. 61 54. 14 54. 14 57. 11 57. 11 70. 47 50. 10 50. 85 53. 97 55. 70 53. 17 56. 54 70. 91 50. 12 51.07 54. 03 57. 41 55.06 58. 50 50. 68 71. 29 51. 64 55. 16 54. 13 57. 19 58.28 70. 59 50. 21 50. 91 54. 83 58. 68 55. 60 59. 50 51.32 69. 39 51. 63 55. 60 58. 76 55. 27 59. 11 72.33 51. 79 51. 84 59. 61 56. 14 56. 08 59. 67 70. 88 51.45 55. 50 51. 35 55. 61 58. 83 58. 95 70. 53 52. 01 51. 33 55. 20 59. 26 55. 93 58. 49 69. 83 51.07 51. 59 54. 74 57. 83 58. 41 55. 29 70.33 50. 12 49. 67 53. 80 54. 29 57. 21 57. 73 71. 81 51.02 50. 41 54. 08 May 54. 74 57. 21 57. 90 71.44 51.47 51.01 54. 55 June _ _ 58. 39 55. 05 57. 86 52. 52 71.27 51. 68 54.67 55. 56 57. 35 58. 28 July 4 ..4 ... _ 52. 08 54. 60 51. 35 55. 38 57. 63 August _ 58. 45 1 For production and related workers. 2 Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1948=100. See note 3 to table on page 24. 3 Not available. 4 Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—These are revised series and do not agree with data previously published in Economic Indicators. Source: Department of Labor. 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average _ _ 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average _ _ _ _ 1948: July _ August- __ __ _ _ _ _ September October _ November December 1 94 9 : Jan uary February _ March April _ _ _ _ _ ___ 26 1948 dollars 2 $68. 85 69.43 69. 59 69. 96 69.62 68. 98 72.26 71.02 71.46 70. 54 70. 97 72. 68 72.09 72.43 Current dollars $30. 96 33. 31 34.44 34. 30 33. 50 33. 19 32. 86 34. 46 34.42 34.01 33. 68 34. 18 34. 85 35. 62 35.57 1948 dollars 2 $33. 25 33. 31 33. 93 33. 66 32.88 32. 73 32. 66 34.43 34. 49 34.46 34.02 34.49 35. 27 35. 94 36. 15 FARM INCOME Formers1 cash receipts in August, and for the first 8 months of this year, were about 10 percent lower than in corresponding periods of 1948. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4 MONTHLY AVERAGE CURRENT DOLLARS I 1939 I 40 1 41 42 1 1 43 1 44 I 45 I 46 I 47 I I I! I 1 ! I I I I I 1! I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I 48 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Farm income (millions of current dollars) * Period ] 939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948: July August September October _ November December 1949: January February. March April Mavj — June4 _ _ _ July Aueust * 1 2 3 4 724 981 _ _ '. - _ -- - - __ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ - _ 1 340 I 678 1 765 1, 857 2 110 2, 542 2 609 2,693 2, 722 3 132 3, 714 3 314 2, 740 2,383 1,783 1 973 1, 850 1, 944 2, 053 2 177 2.461 Prices paid by farmers (incl. Farm income (millions of interest and 1948 dollars) * taxes) 1948= 2 100 49 8 53. 0 60 2 65 1 67 9 69. 1 77. 5 92. 8 100. 0 100.8 100. 8 100 4 100. 0 99 2 99. 6 99. 6 98.4 98. 8 98. 8 98. 4 98. 4 98. 0 97.7 1 454 1, 851 2, 226 2 578 2, 599 2,687 2, 723 2,739 2, 609 2,672 2,700 3, 120 3, 714 3, 341 2,751 2,393 1,812 1, 997 1,872 1,976 2,086 2,221 2,519 Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments. Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1948 = 100. Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, and taxes, 1948=100. Preliminary estimates. Source: Department of Agriculture. 27 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Heavy purchases of automobiles and other durables plus an increase in service expenditures failed to o f f s e t entirely the drop in expenditures for nondurables in 3rd quarter, B I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL TOTALS ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED TOTAL EXPENDITURES DURABLE GOODS 'NONDURABLE GOODS! 50 1944 1947 1948 1949 3 4 1947 2 3 2 I 3* 1949 1948 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED). 2 I960 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S [Billions of dollars] Personal consumption expenditures Period Nondurable goods Total 19391944_ 1946. 1947> 1948.. 67.5 111. 6 147.8 166. 9 178.8 35.3 67. 1 87.5 96.2 102.2 Durable goods 6.7 7. 1 16.5 22.0 23.5 Services 25.5 37.4 44. 5 48.8 53. 1 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949: First quarter l Second quarter Third quarter 2 _ 1 2 __ __ 175.2 178.7 180.3 180.9 101.2 102.4 101.8 103.3 22.7 23.8 24.8 22. 9 51.3 52. 5 53.7 54.8 177.9 178.2 176.5 99.9 98.7 96.0 22.5 23. 6 24.0 55.4 55.9 56.5 Preliminary estimates. Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). Digitized 28 for FRASER CONSUMER CREDIT The continued rise in automobile and other installment credit, partially offset by a drop in charge accounts, increased total consumer credit by $265 million in August. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2 0 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2 0 I 1943 1946 J 1947 F M A M J J A S O N D J F M M J J A S O N O F M A M 1948 1947 END OF YEAR A J A I I S 0 N D 1949 END OF MONTH SOURCE: B O A R D OF G O V E R N O R S OF THE F E D E R A L R E S E R V E SYSTEM. [Millions of dollars] Total consumer credit outstanding End of period 1939 1943 . 1946 1947 1948 1948: July August . . September October November December 1949: January February _ March April May June 2 July 2 August 1 2 _ __ __ Instalment credit Total Automobile sale credit Other sale credit and loans Other consumer credit * 7,969 5,378 10, 191 13, 673 16, 319 4,424 2,001 4,000 6,434 8,600 1,267 175 544 1, 151 1,961 3, 157 1,826 3,456 5,283 6,639 1,544 1,498 3,054 3,612 3,854 2,001 1,879 3, 137 3,627 3,865 14, 723 14, 916 15, 231 15, 518 15, 739 16, 319 7,738 7,972 8, 190 8,233 8, 322 8,600 1,689 1,781 1,858 1,889 1,922 1,961 6,049 6, 191 6,332 6,344 6,400 6,639 3, 185 3, 130 3,227 3,457 3,557 3,854 3,800 3,814 3,814 3,828 3,860 3,865 15, 748 15, 325 15, 335 15, 595 15, 843 16, 122 16, 187 16, 452 8,424 8,339 8,429 8,630 8,888 9, 122 9,331 9, 613 1, 965 1,996 2, 105 2, 241 2,386 2,499 2,610 2,767 6, 459 6,343 6, 324 6,389 6, 502 6,623 6,721 6,846 3,457 3, 169 3, 121 3,232 3,235 3,274 3, 123 3, 064 3, 867 3,817 3,785 3,733 3,720 3, 726 3, 733 3,775 Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit. Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Charge accounts MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS Bank loans showed a seasonal increase in August. A reduction in required reserves permitted banks to increase their holdings of Government securities by more than $2 billion. ONS OF D O L L A R S 125 - — 125 100 - - 100 _ 75 - 50 - l l ^ ;!jjjJi 25 - M Sv^ x v^ X& M m 1929 i> 1939 w. 25 1 J0 M 1945 A M J 1947 END OF YEAR 1948 END OF MONTH PR EL IMINA RY ES TIM'A TE [Billions of dollars] Investments Total investments 1929 1939 1945 1947 1948 . 1948: July August Septp.Tnher October November December . 1949: January February March April May «,j _ June July August 1 1 .. - . - . ^ , ~ „_„,--, .. __ _ _ _ - _ _ __ 49. 5 40.7 124. 0 116.3 114. 3 114. 8 115. 1 113. 6 114. 1 114. 2 114. 3 114.5 113. 4 112.5 112. 5 113.4 113. 7 114.7 117. 9 Total 36.0 17.2 26. 1 38. 1 42.5 40. 1 40.6 41.7 41. 6 42. 3 42.5 42.4 42. 0 42.4 41.3 40.9 41.2 40.5 41.2 Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Digitized 30 for FRASER 13.5 23. 4 97.9 78.2 71.8 74.6 74. 5 71.9 72. 5 71.9 71.8 72.0 71. 4 70. 1 71.2 72.6 72. 5 74.2 76.7 U. S. Government securities 4.8 16. 3 90. 6 69. 2 62.6 65.3 65. 1 62.5 63.3 62. 8 62.6 63.0 62. 2 60. 9 62.0 63.2 63.0 64.4 66.7 Other securities 8.7 7. 1 7.3 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.2 9. 1 9.2 9. 1 9. 1 9. 2 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.8 10.0 MONEY SUPPLY The money supply continued to increase slightly in August and was about the same as a year ago. BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 200 TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY ( EXCLUDING U.S.GOV'T. DEPOSITS) 175 .TIME DEPOSITS 75 ^ADJUSTED DEMAND DEPOSITS v * *::x ^ ' \^ ^ CURRENCY OUTSIDE BANKS <^'V>*x v . — ^ -i i'..j!^ -\.. >\L.t.j?d.\ 1939 1943 1946 1947 END OF YEAR 1948 J F M A M J J A v S O N D J F M A 1947 M J J A S O N D J F M 1948 END OF MONTH A M J J A S O N D 1949 SOURCE: BOARD OF G O V E R N O R S OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Total money supply End of period 1939 1943 1946 1947 1948 . _ 1948: July ___ August September October . __ November December . 1949: January February March April „ _. May June _ July 3 August _ . _ --_ - _ __ - - _ . « - - ..-_ 63.3 112.4 164.0 170. 0 169. 1 166.0 166. 7 166.9 168. 1 168. 1 169. 1 168.2 166.3 164. 2 165.5 165.7 165. 6 166. 3 166.9 Currency outside banks 6.4 18.8 26. 7 26.5 26. 1 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.7 25. 9 26. 1 25.2 25. 1 25. 1 24.9 25.0 25.0 24.9 25. 1 Adjusted demand deposits l 29.8 60.8 83.3 87. 1 85.5 83.3 83.8 83.9 85. 1 85.2 85.5 85.4 83.4 81. 1 82.4 82. 6 82.2 83. 1 83.4 Time deposits 3 27. 1 32.7 54. 0 56. 4 57.5 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.0 57.5 57.6 57.8 58. 0 58. 1 58. 2 58. 4 58.4 58.3 1 Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection. 3 Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System. 2 Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 31 FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC The cash deficit of about $400 million for the 3rd quarter compares with a surplus of $1.3 billion for the same quarter of 1948. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 16 X CASH RECEIPTS CASH PAYMENTS I 2 I 2 ,946 3 4 1 2 , 947 3 « 2 |948 3 4 2 1949 2 1949 3 I EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS u 2 111 LJ EXCESS OF CASH PAYMENTS 1946 3 1947 3 4 1 CALENDAR 2 1948 YEARS SOURCE: BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT. [Millions of dollars] Federal cash receipts from the public 1 Calendar years Federal cash payments to the public l Calendar year total: 41, 426 1946 _ _ ._ 44, 279 1947 _ _ _ _ _ _ 44, 920 1948 _ _Quarterly total, not adjusted for seasonal: 9, 702 1946- Third quarter Fourth quarter __ 9,630 1947: First quarter _ _ 14, 345 Second quarter 9,847 Third quarter _ 10, 220 Fourth quarter 9, 869 15, 037 1948: First quarter Second quarter _ _ _ _ __ 10, 238 Third quarter 10, 085 Fourth quarter _ _ _ 9,560 1949: First quarter _ _ _ _ 13, 122 8,814 Second quarter2 _ 10, 200 Third quarter _ _ 1 Payments of refunds of Government receipts are now reported as deductions viously, they were reported as expenditures. * Preliminary estimates based on incomplete data. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget. 32 w 41, 372 38, 584 36, 954 + 54 + 5, 695 + 7,967 + 1, 252 8, 449 + 959 8,671 +5, 182 9, 163 -781 10, 628 -37 10, 257 + 1,331 8, 536 + 6,400 8,637 + 1, 205 9,033 + 1,287 8, 798 -925 10, 486 9,964 + 3, 158 —2, 541 11,355 -400 10, 600 from total receipts; pre- o For sale b Excess of receipts (+) or payments (— ) y tne Superintendent of Documents, U. S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D. O. Price 15 cents per copy; $1.76 per year; $2.25 foreign