Full text of Economic Indicators : November 2015
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114th Congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators NOVEMBER 2015 (Includes data available as of December 4, 2015) Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 2015 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) Senator Dan Coats, Indiana, Chairman Representative Patrick J. Tiberi, Ohio, Vice Chairman Senate House of Representatives Mike Lee, Utah Tom Cotton, Arkansas Ben Sasse, Nebraska Ted Cruz, Texas Bill Cassidy, M.D., Louisiana Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota Robert P. Casey, Jr., Pennsylvania Martin Heinrich, New Mexico Gary C. Peters, Michigan Justin Amash, Michigan Erik Paulsen, Minnesota Richard L. Hanna, New York David Schweikert, Arizona Glenn Grothman, Wisconsin Carolyn B. Maloney, New York, Ranking John Delaney, Maryland Alma S. Adams, Ph.D, North Carolina Donald S. Beyer, Jr., Virginia Viraj M. Mirani, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Jason Furman, Chairman Sandra Black, Member Jay Shambaugh, Member [Public Law 120—81st Congress; Chapter 237—1st Session] JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. R es. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled “Economic Indicators” Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled “Economic Indicators,” and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts prepared under the direction of the Mail and Multimedia Division, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Monthly issues of Economic Indicators in PDF form, and tables in Excel, are available online at: www.gpo.gov/economicindicators To subscribe to the print edition, $58.00 per year ($81.20 outside the United States), contact the U.S. Government Publishing Office at 202-512-1800, www.gpo.gov/economicindicators, or: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE MAIL STOP: IDCC WASHINGTON, DC 20402-9328 ii TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Gross Domestic Product In the third quarter of 2015, according to revised estimates, current dollar gross domestic product (GDP) rose 3.4 percent (annual rate), real GDP in chained (2009) dollars rose 2.1 percent, and the chained price index rose 1.3 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 18,400 18,400 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 18,000 18,000 17,600 17,600 17,200 17,200 16,800 16,800 16,400 16,400 16,000 16,000 GDP IN CURRENT DOLLARS 15,600 15,600 15,200 15,200 14,800 14,800 GDP IN CHAINED (2009) DOLLARS 14,400 14,400 14,000 14,000 13,600 13,600 13,200 13,200 12,800 12,800 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 2014 2015 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 2005 �������������������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2013: I ��������������� � ��������������� II �������������� III �������������� IV 2014: I ��������������� � ��������������� II ������������ III � �������������� IV 2015: I ��������������� � ��������������� II r ������������ III Gross domestic product 13,093.7 13,855.9 14,477.6 14,718.6 14,418.7 14,964.4 15,517.9 16,155.3 16,663.2 17,348.1 16,440.7 16,526.8 16,727.5 16,957.6 16,984.3 17,270.0 17,522.1 17,615.9 17,649.3 17,913.7 18,064.7 Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment 8,794.1 9,304.0 9,750.5 10,013.6 9,847.0 10,202.2 10,689.3 11,050.6 11,392.3 11,865.9 11,271.8 11,322.8 11,417.7 11,556.9 11,640.3 11,813.0 11,949.1 12,061.4 12,055.5 12,228.4 12,358.6 2,527.1 2,680.6 2,643.7 2,424.8 1,878.1 2,100.8 2,239.9 2,511.7 2,665.0 2,860.0 2,578.3 2,620.4 2,711.5 2,749.9 2,751.1 2,841.6 2,910.2 2,937.2 2,995.9 3,025.5 3,034.8 Exports and imports of goods and services Net exports –721.2 –770.9 –718.5 –723.1 –395.4 –512.7 –580.0 –565.7 –508.4 –530.0 –529.2 –527.8 –512.4 –464.3 –529.4 –530.9 –514.6 –545.2 –551.6 –519.3 –529.1 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Exports 1,308.9 1,476.3 1,664.6 1,841.9 1,587.7 1,852.3 2,106.4 2,198.2 2,263.3 2,341.9 2,226.6 2,237.6 2,264.3 2,324.5 2,301.5 2,356.2 2,360.6 2,349.5 2,257.3 2,280.0 2,260.6 Imports 2,030.1 2,247.3 2,383.2 2,565.0 1,983.2 2,365.0 2,686.4 2,763.8 2,771.7 2,871.9 2,755.8 2,765.4 2,776.7 2,788.8 2,830.8 2,887.0 2,875.2 2,894.6 2,808.9 2,799.3 2,789.7 Total 2,493.7 2,642.2 2,801.9 3,003.2 3,089.1 3,174.0 3,168.7 3,158.6 3,114.2 3,152.1 3,119.8 3,111.4 3,110.7 3,115.1 3,122.3 3,146.3 3,177.4 3,162.5 3,149.5 3,179.2 3,200.4 Total 946.3 1,002.0 1,049.8 1,155.6 1,217.7 1,303.9 1,303.5 1,292.5 1,230.6 1,219.9 1,250.4 1,234.2 1,220.4 1,217.6 1,214.8 1,216.9 1,233.1 1,214.7 1,218.2 1,220.7 1,224.4 National defense Nondefense 608.3 642.4 678.7 754.1 788.3 832.8 836.9 817.8 767.7 748.2 783.8 772.3 759.2 755.4 746.8 748.4 759.5 738.2 739.0 740.1 738.3 338.1 359.6 371.0 401.5 429.4 471.1 466.5 474.7 463.0 471.6 466.6 461.9 461.1 462.2 468.0 468.4 473.6 476.5 479.2 480.6 486.1 Chart 1 - Nov 2015 State and local 1,547.4 1,640.2 1,752.2 1,847.6 1,871.4 1,870.2 1,865.3 1,866.1 1,883.6 1,932.3 1,869.4 1,877.2 1,890.3 1,897.5 1,907.5 1,929.4 1,944.3 1,947.8 1,931.3 1,958.4 1,976.0 Final Addendum: Gross sales of Gross domestic domestic purchases 1 national product product 13,034.1 13,788.9 14,443.2 14,750.6 14,566.3 14,902.8 15,476.2 16,093.5 16,591.4 17,270.9 16,404.2 16,478.1 16,621.9 16,861.2 16,941.6 17,181.0 17,433.8 17,527.4 17,522.0 17,786.2 17,964.1 13,814.9 14,626.8 15,196.2 15,441.6 14,814.2 15,477.0 16,097.9 16,720.9 17,171.6 17,878.1 16,969.9 17,054.6 17,239.9 17,421.9 17,513.7 17,800.9 18,036.6 18,161.1 18,200.9 18,433.0 18,593.8 13,186.3 13,923.5 14,603.2 14,890.6 14,569.8 15,170.3 15,764.6 16,392.8 16,913.5 17,611.2 16,661.7 16,774.0 16,991.4 17,226.9 17,243.1 17,527.0 17,794.0 17,880.6 17,876.8 18,144.3 18,260.5 1 GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 1 Real Gross Domestic Product [Billions of chained (2009) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 2005 �������������������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2013: I ��������������� � ��������������� II �������������� III �������������� IV 2014: I ��������������� � ��������������� II �������������� III �������������� IV 2015: I ��������������� � ��������������� II r ������������ III Gross private domestic investment Personal Gross conChange domestic sumption Nonresi- Resiin product expendi- dential dential fixed fixed private tures investinvestinvenment ment tories 14,234.2 14,613.8 14,873.7 14,830.4 14,418.7 14,783.8 15,020.6 15,354.6 15,583.3 15,961.7 15,457.2 15,500.2 15,614.4 15,761.5 15,724.9 15,901.5 16,068.8 16,151.4 16,177.3 16,333.6 16,417.8 9,531.8 9,821.7 10,041.6 10,007.2 9,847.0 10,036.3 10,263.5 10,413.2 10,590.4 10,875.7 10,518.2 10,554.3 10,598.9 10,690.4 10,724.7 10,826.3 10,918.6 11,033.3 11,081.2 11,178.9 11,262.8 1,717.4 1,839.6 1,948.4 1,934.4 1,633.4 1,673.8 1,802.3 1,964.1 2,023.7 2,148.3 2,000.7 2,005.7 2,023.1 2,065.5 2,106.9 2,129.8 2,176.3 2,180.0 2,188.6 2,210.6 2,223.7 872.6 806.6 654.8 497.7 392.2 382.4 384.5 436.5 478.0 486.4 469.9 480.3 486.0 475.9 472.6 484.4 488.5 500.2 512.4 524.0 533.3 64.3 71.6 35.5 –33.7 –147.6 58.2 37.6 54.7 61.4 68.0 25.2 39.6 93.6 87.2 36.9 77.1 79.9 78.2 112.8 113.5 90.2 Exports and imports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total –782.3 –794.3 –712.6 –557.8 –395.4 –458.8 –459.4 –447.1 –417.5 –442.5 –425.9 –434.2 –428.3 –381.5 –434.0 –443.3 –429.1 –463.6 –541.2 –534.6 –544.1 1,381.9 1,506.8 1,646.4 1,740.8 1,587.7 1,776.6 1,898.3 1,963.2 2,018.1 2,086.4 1,976.6 2,000.5 2,021.1 2,074.2 2,038.7 2,086.8 2,096.0 2,123.9 2,091.4 2,117.5 2,122.1 2,164.2 2,301.0 2,359.0 2,298.6 1,983.2 2,235.4 2,357.7 2,410.2 2,435.6 2,528.9 2,402.6 2,434.7 2,449.4 2,455.7 2,472.7 2,530.1 2,525.1 2,587.5 2,632.5 2,652.1 2,666.2 2,826.2 2,869.3 2,914.4 2,994.8 3,089.1 3,091.4 2,997.4 2,941.6 2,854.9 2,838.3 2,878.8 2,864.1 2,848.1 2,828.5 2,828.4 2,836.5 2,849.2 2,839.0 2,838.5 2,856.9 2,868.7 National Nondefense defense Total 1,034.8 1,060.9 1,078.7 1,152.3 1,217.7 1,270.7 1,236.4 1,213.5 1,144.1 1,116.3 1,170.1 1,153.2 1,136.3 1,116.9 1,117.8 1,114.5 1,124.7 1,108.3 1,111.3 1,111.3 1,111.6 665.5 678.8 695.6 748.1 788.3 813.5 795.0 768.2 716.6 689.1 734.4 723.6 709.4 698.8 690.6 689.8 697.3 678.6 680.3 680.8 678.2 369.4 382.1 383.1 404.2 429.4 457.1 441.4 445.3 427.5 427.0 435.6 429.5 426.7 418.0 427.0 424.6 427.1 429.4 430.7 430.2 433.0 AddenFinal Gross dum: sales of domestic Gross domestic purchases 1 national product product State and local 1,792.3 1,808.8 1,836.1 1,842.4 1,871.4 1,820.8 1,761.0 1,728.1 1,710.2 1,720.8 1,708.5 1,710.4 1,711.1 1,710.6 1,709.6 1,720.8 1,723.5 1,729.3 1,725.9 1,744.1 1,755.5 14,168.8 14,542.3 14,836.2 14,865.7 14,566.3 14,722.2 14,979.0 15,292.3 15,511.4 15,881.7 15,424.7 15,451.9 15,508.9 15,660.0 15,675.7 15,809.7 15,978.6 16,062.9 16,053.8 16,209.7 16,318.2 15,040.3 15,431.6 15,606.8 15,399.9 14,814.2 15,244.9 15,483.9 15,804.3 16,001.4 16,405.8 15,883.9 15,935.9 16,043.9 16,141.9 16,160.3 16,346.6 16,498.9 16,617.2 16,720.8 16,870.7 16,964.4 14,338.4 14,688.6 15,005.7 15,004.8 14,569.8 14,970.8 15,241.0 15,562.1 15,799.3 16,186.7 15,647.1 15,713.9 15,842.6 15,993.8 15,947.1 16,120.9 16,301.1 16,377.7 16,371.4 16,529.7 16,581.8 1 GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Note: Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2009) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). Chained Price Indexes For Gross Domestic Product [Index numbers, 2009=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Period 2005 �������������������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2013: I ��������������� � ��������������� II �������������� III �������������� IV 2014: I ��������������� � ��������������� II �������������� III �������������� IV 2015: I ��������������� � ��������������� II r ������������ III Gross domestic product 91.985 94.812 97.340 99.218 100.000 101.226 103.315 105.220 106.935 108.694 106.333 106.625 107.154 107.630 108.025 108.621 109.049 109.081 109.112 109.685 110.048 Personal consumption expenditures Total 92.261 94.729 97.102 100.065 100.000 101.653 104.149 106.121 107.572 109.105 107.166 107.284 107.728 108.108 108.540 109.117 109.441 109.322 108.795 109.391 109.733 Goods Services 96.951 98.277 99.403 102.362 100.000 101.637 105.413 106.701 106.200 105.823 106.740 105.941 106.179 105.939 105.912 106.276 106.179 104.924 102.567 103.191 103.130 Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 2 Gross private domestic investment 89.933 92.976 95.981 98.947 100.000 101.661 103.524 105.840 108.292 110.818 107.398 107.988 108.539 109.241 109.911 110.598 111.143 111.620 112.051 112.632 113.187 Nonresidential fixed 93.830 96.561 98.574 100.337 100.000 99.070 100.545 102.216 102.993 103.977 102.574 102.943 103.110 103.345 103.567 103.849 104.170 104.322 104.211 103.953 104.265 Residential fixed 98.103 103.821 105.176 103.647 100.000 99.645 100.395 101.324 106.458 112.903 104.210 105.580 106.992 109.051 111.411 111.692 113.612 114.896 114.773 114.538 115.504 Exports and imports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Exports 94.717 97.979 101.107 105.809 100.000 104.263 110.960 111.970 112.147 112.250 112.644 111.850 112.034 112.062 112.884 112.895 112.615 110.607 107.925 107.661 106.514 Imports 93.802 97.663 101.024 111.588 100.000 105.800 113.942 114.671 113.798 113.566 114.699 113.580 113.361 113.554 114.474 114.092 113.847 111.852 106.685 105.535 104.615 Total 91.449 94.448 97.319 100.286 100.000 102.614 105.422 106.512 107.562 109.274 106.855 107.005 107.388 109.002 108.668 109.179 109.649 109.600 109.623 109.850 110.152 National defense 91.395 94.633 97.572 100.809 100.000 102.365 105.274 106.466 107.130 108.585 106.718 106.716 107.008 108.079 108.129 108.503 108.919 108.789 108.636 108.718 108.864 Nondefense 91.529 94.101 96.849 99.321 100.000 103.064 105.691 106.600 108.308 110.444 107.104 107.514 108.049 110.566 109.599 110.329 110.884 110.964 111.266 111.720 112.269 State and local 86.333 90.677 95.426 100.279 100.000 102.714 105.923 107.985 110.143 112.287 109.415 109.751 110.475 110.930 111.576 112.125 112.809 112.637 111.901 112.290 112.563 Gross Domestic Product and Related Price Measures: Indexes and Percent Changes [Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Percent change from preceding period 1 Index numbers, 2009=100 Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) Gross domestic product (GDP) Period 2005 ���������������������� 2006 ���������������������� 2007 ���������������������� 2008 ���������������������� 2009 ���������������������� 2010 ���������������������� 2011 ���������������������� 2012 ���������������������� 2013 ���������������������� 2014 ���������������������� 2013: I ����������������� � ����������������� II ���������������� III ���������������� IV 2014: I ����������������� � ����������������� II ���������������� III ���������������� IV 2015: I ����������������� � ����������������� II r �������������� III Real GDP GDP (chain-type chain-type quantity price index) index 98.720 101.353 103.156 102.855 100.000 102.532 104.174 106.491 108.077 110.701 107.202 107.501 108.293 109.313 109.059 110.283 111.444 112.017 112.196 113.280 113.864 GDP implicit price deflator 91.985 94.812 97.340 99.218 100.000 101.226 103.315 105.220 106.935 108.694 106.333 106.625 107.154 107.630 108.025 108.621 109.049 109.081 109.112 109.685 110.048 PCE PCE less food (chain-type and energy price index) price index 91.988 94.814 97.337 99.246 100.000 101.221 103.311 105.214 106.929 108.686 106.363 106.623 107.128 107.589 108.009 108.606 109.044 109.067 109.099 109.674 110.031 92.261 94.729 97.102 100.065 100.000 101.653 104.149 106.121 107.572 109.105 107.166 107.284 107.728 108.108 108.540 109.117 109.441 109.322 108.795 109.391 109.733 92.711 94.786 96.832 98.827 100.000 101.286 102.800 104.741 106.355 107.981 105.819 106.140 106.508 106.954 107.334 107.860 108.232 108.498 108.758 109.264 109.627 Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) Gross domestic product (GDP) Gross domestic purchases price index 91.851 94.783 97.372 100.244 100.000 101.527 103.970 105.805 107.319 108.982 106.807 107.020 107.479 107.969 108.390 108.910 109.325 109.304 108.864 109.271 109.621 GDP (current dollars) Real GDP GDP (chain-type chain-type quantity price index) index 6.7 5.8 4.5 1.7 –2.0 3.8 3.7 4.1 3.1 4.1 3.6 2.1 4.9 5.6 .6 6.9 6.0 2.2 .8 6.1 3.4 3.3 2.7 1.8 –.3 –2.8 2.5 1.6 2.2 1.5 2.4 1.9 1.1 3.0 3.8 –.9 4.6 4.3 2.1 .6 3.9 2.1 Gross domestic PCE purchases PCE (chain-type less food price index price index) and energy price index GDP implicit price deflator 3.2 3.1 2.7 1.9 .8 1.2 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.1 2.0 1.8 1.5 2.2 1.6 .1 .1 2.1 1.3 3.2 3.1 2.7 2.0 .8 1.2 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 2.2 1.6 .1 .1 2.1 1.3 2.9 2.7 2.5 3.1 –.1 1.7 2.5 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.4 .4 1.7 1.4 1.6 2.1 1.2 –.4 –1.9 2.2 1.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.4 2.0 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.9 1.3 3.5 3.2 2.7 2.9 –.2 1.5 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.4 .8 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.5 –.1 –1.6 1.5 1.3 1 Quarterly percent changes are at annual rates. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). Nonfinancial Corporate Business— Gross Value Added and Price, Costs, and Profits [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Current dollars 2005 �������������������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2013: I ��������������� � ��������������� II �������������� III �������������� IV 2014: I ��������������� � ��������������� II �������������� III �������������� IV 2015: I ��������������� � r ������������� II p ������������ III Price per unit of real gross value added of nonfinancial corporate business (dollars) 1, 2 Gross value added of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars) 1 6,532.1 6,988.0 7,203.9 7,256.8 6,859.8 7,238.7 7,592.3 8,011.9 8,316.8 8,641.0 8,209.1 8,320.3 8,335.1 8,402.8 8,446.6 8,585.1 8,729.9 8,802.3 8,777.7 8,873.1 8,979.1 Chained (2009) dollars 7,131.7 7,406.3 7,480.5 7,383.9 6,859.8 7,240.0 7,421.5 7,720.9 7,954.8 8,207.3 7,852.2 7,966.7 7,977.7 8,022.6 8,027.0 8,148.2 8,252.3 8,401.6 8,394.6 8,436.4 8,525.9 Total 0.916 .944 .963 .983 1.000 1.000 1.023 1.038 1.046 1.053 1.045 1.044 1.045 1.047 1.052 1.054 1.058 1.048 1.046 1.052 1.053 Compensation of employees (unit labor cost) 0.551 .558 .576 .590 .596 .574 .588 .595 .597 .609 .596 .595 .597 .599 .614 .609 .608 .605 .609 .615 .617 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments 4 Unit nonlabor cost Total 0.243 .249 .265 .283 .299 .290 .296 .294 .293 .289 .295 .292 .293 .293 .293 .290 .289 .285 .287 .285 .284 Consumption of fixed capital Net interest Taxes on and production miscellaneous and imports 3 payments 0.128 .132 .139 .148 .159 .151 .154 .154 .155 .157 .154 .154 .155 .156 .158 .157 .157 .155 .156 .156 .156 0.091 .092 .093 .093 .099 .099 .103 .102 .103 .101 .104 .102 .103 .104 .102 .101 .102 .099 .099 .099 .098 0.024 .025 .033 .042 .041 .040 .039 .039 .035 .031 .037 .036 .035 .034 .033 .032 .031 .030 .032 .030 .030 Total 0.122 .137 .122 .110 .105 .136 .140 .149 .155 .155 .155 .158 .155 .155 .146 .155 .161 .158 .150 .152 .152 Taxes on corporate income 0.038 .042 .039 .031 .026 .030 .031 .035 .036 .039 .037 .036 .035 .035 .038 .039 .039 .039 .041 .043 .042 Profits after tax 5 0.084 .096 .083 .079 .079 .105 .109 .114 .120 .116 .118 .122 .119 .120 .108 .116 .122 .120 .109 .109 .110 1 Estimates for nonfinancial corporate business are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). 2 The implicit price deflator for gross value added of nonfinancial corporate business divided by 100. 3 Less subsidies plus business current transfer payments. 4 Unit profits from current production. 5 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 3 National Income [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Proprietors’ income 1 Period 2005 �������������������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2013: I ��������������� � ��������������� II �������������� III �������������� IV 2014: I ��������������� � ��������������� II �������������� III �������������� IV 2015: I ��������������� � r ������������� II r ������������ III ComNational pensation of income employees 11,239.8 12,004.8 12,321.4 12,427.8 12,126.1 12,739.5 13,352.3 14,061.9 14,458.3 15,076.5 14,257.6 14,416.0 14,500.8 14,658.9 14,710.1 14,981.3 15,256.5 15,358.2 15,336.4 15,520.3 15,654.3 7,086.8 7,502.3 7,898.3 8,078.3 7,787.0 7,961.4 8,269.0 8,609.9 8,839.7 9,248.9 8,696.7 8,820.4 8,875.7 8,965.9 9,103.7 9,177.3 9,289.9 9,424.9 9,487.9 9,615.2 9,735.8 Rental income of persons with capital conNonfarm sumption adjustment Farm 46.4 36.0 38.1 47.0 35.5 46.0 75.5 61.6 88.8 78.1 93.9 90.2 93.9 77.1 71.7 88.8 77.2 74.8 60.5 56.9 66.5 932.6 1,017.7 941.1 979.5 937.5 986.7 1,068.1 1,179.8 1,196.3 1,268.6 1,195.0 1,189.5 1,193.6 1,207.2 1,233.0 1,257.5 1,280.6 1,303.0 1,308.9 1,320.1 1,336.0 238.4 207.5 189.4 262.1 333.7 402.8 485.3 525.3 563.4 610.8 547.9 556.5 569.7 579.4 591.0 605.5 618.4 628.4 637.0 654.1 663.7 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Net interest and Capital miscelconsumption laneous Inventory adjust- payments valuation ment adjustment Taxes on production and imports Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total Total 1,477.7 1,646.5 1,529.0 1,285.1 1,397.0 1,746.4 1,816.6 1,998.2 2,037.4 2,072.9 1,997.3 2,045.4 2,042.1 2,064.7 1,924.7 2,070.5 2,161.0 2,135.5 2,012.5 2,083.0 2,060.3 Profits before tax 1,621.2 1,815.7 1,708.9 1,345.5 1,479.2 1,799.7 1,738.5 2,116.6 2,164.9 2,204.9 2,127.5 2,172.5 2,167.5 2,192.0 2,054.4 2,203.7 2,295.0 2,266.3 2,351.5 2,414.2 2,392.9 1,653.3 1,851.4 1,748.4 1,382.4 1,472.6 1,840.7 1,806.8 2,130.8 2,161.6 2,207.8 2,136.6 2,149.4 2,163.6 2,197.0 2,111.2 2,227.6 2,279.5 2,212.8 2,252.3 2,393.7 2,337.1 –32.1 –35.7 –39.5 –37.0 6.7 –41.0 –68.3 –14.2 3.2 –2.9 –9.1 23.0 3.9 –4.9 –56.9 –24.0 15.5 53.5 99.2 20.5 55.8 –143.5 –169.2 –179.9 –60.4 –82.2 –53.3 78.1 –118.5 –127.5 –131.9 –130.1 –127.1 –125.3 –127.3 –129.6 –133.2 –134.0 –130.8 –338.9 –331.3 –332.7 496.8 580.9 663.4 693.4 563.4 489.4 488.1 527.7 513.5 532.3 526.1 505.2 504.6 518.3 555.6 535.9 515.8 521.9 561.3 506.6 505.8 Business Less: current Subsidies transfer payments 934.5 991.9 1034.6 1041.9 1026.1 1057.1 1102.6 1132.1 1178.0 1213.7 1,168.6 1,171.3 1,183.2 1,188.9 1,196.1 1,210.2 1,221.7 1,227.0 1,226.8 1,234.1 1,238.8 60.9 51.5 54.6 52.6 58.3 55.9 60.1 58.0 59.4 57.9 59.2 59.7 59.5 59.0 58.1 57.9 58.2 57.5 57.6 58.5 59.3 93.9 82.6 98.6 114.4 124.9 128.5 131.5 104.7 119.4 127.3 108.9 115.9 116.2 136.5 110.0 112.0 168.5 118.7 115.6 124.9 122.7 Current surplus of government enterprises –6.4 –9.3 –16.4 –21.2 –20.6 –22.9 –24.5 –19.3 –18.8 –18.3 –17.7 –18.7 –18.8 –19.9 –17.6 –18.4 –18.4 –18.6 –16.6 –16.1 –16.0 1 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). Real Personal Consumption Expenditures [Billions of chained (2009) dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Goods Period Total personal consumption expenditures 2005 �������������������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2013: I ��������������� � ��������������� II �������������� III �������������� IV 2014: I ��������������� � ��������������� II �������������� III �������������� IV 2015: I ��������������� � ��������������� II r ������������ III 9,531.8 9,821.7 10,041.6 10,007.2 9,847.0 10,036.3 10,263.5 10,413.2 10,590.4 10,875.7 10,518.2 10,554.3 10,598.9 10,690.4 10,724.7 10,826.3 10,918.6 11,033.3 11,081.2 11,178.9 11,262.8 Services Durable Total goods 3,177.2 3,292.5 3,381.8 3,297.8 3,198.4 3,308.7 3,411.8 3,504.3 3,612.8 3,731.2 3,586.0 3,596.8 3,620.2 3,648.1 3,658.3 3,718.0 3,755.2 3,793.2 3,803.7 3,855.0 3,900.6 Total durable goods 1 1,046.9 1,091.5 1,141.7 1,083.2 1,023.3 1,085.7 1,151.5 1,236.2 1,307.6 1,384.1 1,293.6 1,300.8 1,311.2 1,324.6 1,333.2 1,377.2 1,402.5 1,423.5 1,430.4 1,458.3 1,481.4 Nondurable Motor vehicles and parts 400.0 385.1 392.8 340.8 317.1 323.4 333.8 359.1 375.8 396.7 376.8 375.8 374.2 376.3 380.1 395.9 403.2 407.7 404.1 413.6 416.7 Total nondurable goods 1 2,132.3 2,202.2 2,239.3 2,214.7 2,175.1 2,223.5 2,263.2 2,277.5 2,319.8 2,367.8 2,306.3 2,310.4 2,323.8 2,338.9 2,341.3 2,361.0 2,375.2 2,393.7 2,397.8 2,423.0 2,446.8 Food and beverages purchased for offpremises consumption Gasoline and other energy goods Total services 1 Household consumption expenditures 757.6 780.8 791.3 781.9 770.0 786.5 795.1 795.7 803.4 807.5 802.8 799.4 803.8 807.8 808.8 808.5 807.1 805.7 804.1 809.5 810.3 298.0 297.4 296.8 283.4 284.5 282.2 274.3 270.0 274.7 276.8 272.2 274.3 275.7 276.6 276.3 274.9 275.1 280.8 284.8 284.5 286.6 6,353.4 6,526.6 6,656.4 6,708.6 6,648.5 6,727.6 6,851.4 6,908.1 6,977.0 7,144.6 6,931.4 6,956.8 6,978.1 7,041.7 7,065.7 7,108.5 7,163.8 7,240.4 7,277.4 7,325.3 7,364.9 6,147.3 6,291.8 6,415.2 6,435.1 6,372.5 6,449.3 6,575.9 6,614.3 6,677.9 6,839.5 6,633.8 6,661.3 6,679.3 6,737.3 6,762.6 6,804.2 6,856.2 6,934.9 6,977.6 7,024.3 7,063.4 Housing and utilities 1,788.4 1,823.2 1,840.8 1,860.1 1,881.0 1,904.3 1,928.0 1,929.1 1,938.8 1,961.2 1,938.5 1,938.8 1,933.0 1,945.0 1,966.5 1,960.0 1,954.8 1,963.5 1,980.5 1,976.7 1,980.1 Health care 1,490.4 1,525.2 1,563.2 1,598.8 1,627.4 1,649.2 1,690.3 1,727.0 1,743.9 1,791.6 1,723.0 1,739.8 1,749.0 1,763.7 1,754.0 1,778.5 1,801.0 1,832.9 1,853.8 1,867.5 1,884.7 Financial services and insurance 704.1 720.1 742.5 737.4 719.0 733.9 747.2 706.4 713.9 722.9 705.7 714.1 713.9 722.1 718.5 719.9 725.6 727.4 727.4 731.4 738.9 Addendum: Personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy 2 Retail sales of new passenger cars and light trucks (millions of units) 8,253.9 8,528.1 8,734.2 8,730.5 8,577.4 8,746.1 8,980.4 9,143.9 9,302.2 9,582.3 9,229.4 9,267.7 9,315.5 9,396.2 9,415.2 9,533.0 9,637.8 9,743.3 9,774.6 9,874.6 9,956.1 16.9 16.5 16.1 13.2 10.4 11.6 12.7 14.4 15.5 16.4 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.8 16.5 16.7 16.8 16.7 17.1 17.8 1 Includes other items, not shown separately. 2 Food consists of food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption; food services, which include purchased meals and beverages, are not classified as food. Note: Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2009) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 4 Sources of Personal Income Personal income rose $68.1 billion (annual rate) in October, following an increase of $27.5 billion in September. Wages and salaries rose $45.0 billion in October, following an increase of $2.5 billion in September. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 16,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 16,000 14,000 14,000 12,000 12,000 TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME 10,000 10,000 9,000 9,000 8,000 8,000 7,000 7,000 6,000 6,000 WAGES AND SALARIES 5,000 5,000 OTHER INCOME 4,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 PERSONAL CURRENT TRANSFER RECEIPTS 2,000 2,000 1,000 1,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 2015 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Compensation of employees Period 2005 �������������������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2014: Oct ����������� ���������� Nov ����������� Dec 2015: Jan ���������� � ����������� Feb ���������� Mar r ��������� Apr May r �������� June r ������� r �������� July r ��������� Aug Sept r �������� p ��������� Oct Total personal income 10,614.0 11,393.9 12,000.2 12,502.2 12,094.8 12,477.1 13,254.5 13,915.1 14,068.4 14,694.2 14,887.2 14,965.6 15,014.2 15,048.1 15,095.8 15,095.6 15,192.6 15,282.4 15,356.0 15,422.3 15,478.2 15,505.7 15,573.8 Total 7,086.8 7,502.3 7,898.3 8,078.3 7,787.0 7,961.4 8,269.0 8,609.9 8,839.7 9,248.9 9,369.4 9,443.4 9,461.9 9,482.2 9,488.4 9,493.2 9,558.7 9,625.8 9,661.0 9,706.6 9,747.5 9,753.4 9,804.9 Wages and salaries Supplements to wages and salaries 5,692.0 6,057.4 6,395.2 6,531.9 6,251.4 6,377.5 6,633.2 6,930.3 7,114.4 7,477.8 7,583.7 7,650.1 7,664.2 7,680.2 7,682.9 7,684.3 7,742.4 7,801.8 7,831.1 7,870.5 7,905.3 7,907.8 7,952.8 1,394.8 1,444.9 1,503.1 1,546.4 1,535.6 1,583.9 1,635.9 1,679.6 1,725.3 1,771.2 1,785.7 1,793.4 1,797.7 1,802.0 1,805.5 1,808.9 1,816.3 1,824.0 1,829.8 1,836.1 1,842.2 1,845.6 1,852.1 Proprietors’ income 1 Farm 46.4 36.0 38.1 47.0 35.5 46.0 75.5 61.6 88.8 78.1 72.1 75.9 76.6 68.5 60.5 52.5 54.0 56.9 59.7 63.1 66.5 69.9 69.6 Nonfarm 932.6 1,017.7 941.1 979.5 937.5 986.7 1,068.1 1,179.8 1,196.3 1,268.6 1,301.2 1,298.9 1,309.1 1,307.1 1,306.9 1,312.8 1,314.2 1,319.9 1,326.3 1,336.3 1,334.6 1,337.1 1,341.8 Personal income receipts on assets Rental income of persons 2 238.4 207.5 189.4 262.1 333.7 402.8 485.3 525.3 563.4 610.8 626.1 628.1 631.1 633.2 636.9 640.8 647.0 654.2 661.1 661.5 663.4 666.0 671.2 Total 1,666.5 1,938.4 2,166.6 2,167.1 1,818.0 1,739.6 1,913.9 2,123.8 2,060.4 2,117.5 2,123.2 2,132.0 2,136.7 2,132.8 2,165.8 2,138.0 2,165.4 2,174.3 2,195.3 2,196.3 2,201.8 2,207.6 2,212.3 Personal interest income 1,088.1 1,214.7 1,350.1 1,361.6 1,264.3 1,195.0 1,231.6 1,288.8 1,271.3 1,302.0 1,288.0 1,290.4 1,291.1 1,286.8 1,282.6 1,278.3 1,295.9 1,313.4 1,331.0 1,332.1 1,333.2 1,334.3 1,331.5 Personal dividend income 578.3 723.7 816.5 805.4 553.7 544.6 682.2 834.9 789.0 815.5 835.2 841.5 845.6 846.0 883.2 859.7 869.6 860.8 864.3 864.2 868.6 873.2 880.8 Personal current transfer receipts 3 1,516.7 1,614.6 1,728.1 1,956.6 2,147.5 2,324.7 2,360.5 2,366.3 2,426.6 2,529.2 2,566.2 2,566.7 2,580.1 2,610.3 2,623.2 2,643.9 2,646.0 2,651.7 2,656.3 2,666.9 2,677.1 2,684.3 2,692.3 Less: Chart 5 - Nov 2015 Contributions for government social insurance, domestic 873.3 922.6 961.4 988.2 964.4 984.1 917.8 951.6 1,106.8 1,159.0 1,171.0 1,179.5 1,181.1 1,186.0 1,185.9 1,185.5 1,192.7 1,200.2 1,203.7 1,208.4 1,212.7 1,212.6 1,218.1 1 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 2 With capital consumption adjustment. 3 Consists mainly of social insurance benefits to persons. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 5 Disposition of Personal Income According to revised estimates, per capita disposable personal income in chained (2009) dollars rose 3.1 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter of 2015. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 14,000 13,500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 14,000 13,500 13,000 13,000 12,500 12,500 12,000 12,000 DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 11,500 11,500 11,000 11,000 SAVING 10,500 10,000 10,500 10,000 PERSONAL OUTLAYS 9,500 9,500 9,000 9,000 DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 44,000 42,000 DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 44,000 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 42,000 40,000 40,000 CURRENT DOLLARS 38,000 38,000 36,000 36,000 CHAINED (2009) DOLLARS 34,000 34,000 32,000 32,000 30,000 30,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Personal income Less: Personal current taxes Equals: Disposable personal income 10,614.0 11,393.9 12,000.2 12,502.2 12,094.8 12,477.1 13,254.5 13,915.1 14,068.4 14,694.2 1,213.2 1,357.1 1,493.2 1,507.8 1,152.3 1,239.3 1,453.2 1,511.4 1,672.8 1,780.2 9,400.8 10,036.9 10,507.0 10,994.4 10,942.5 11,237.9 11,801.4 12,403.7 12,395.6 12,913.9 2015 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Less: Personal outlays 1 Equals: Personal saving Disposable personal income in billions of chained (2009) dollars Per capita disposable personal income Current dollars Billions of dollars 2005 �������������������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2014 Chained (2009) dollars Per capita personal consumption expenditures Current dollars Chained (2009) dollars Dollars 9,157.7 9,705.5 10,197.2 10,457.7 10,275.1 10,607.9 11,091.2 11,457.0 11,805.7 12,293.7 243.1 331.4 309.8 536.7 667.4 630.0 710.1 946.7 589.9 620.2 10,189.4 10,595.4 10,820.6 10,987.3 10,942.5 11,055.1 11,331.2 11,688.3 11,523.1 11,836.3 31,760 33,589 34,826 36,101 35,616 36,274 37,804 39,440 39,123 40,461 Chart 6 - Nov 2015 Percent Saving change as in real percent per capita of disposable disposable personal personal income income Population, including Armed Forces overseas (thousands) 2 Percent 34,424 35,458 35,866 36,078 35,616 35,684 36,298 37,165 36,369 37,084 29,711 31,136 32,319 32,881 32,050 32,931 34,242 35,137 35,956 37,177 32,203 32,868 33,284 32,860 32,050 32,395 32,878 33,111 33,425 34,075 0.6 3.0 1.2 .6 –1.3 .2 1.7 2.4 –2.1 2.0 2.6 3.3 2.9 4.9 6.1 5.6 6.0 7.6 4.8 4.8 295,993 298,818 301,696 304,543 307,240 309,808 312,172 314,499 316,839 319,173 36,180 36,356 36,481 36,460 36,755 36,962 37,134 37,484 37,785 37,967 38,260 35,675 35,775 36,002 36,369 36,572 37,051 37,403 37,680 37,600 38,075 38,404 33,290 33,347 33,421 33,642 33,695 33,956 34,177 34,468 34,562 34,807 34,999 –16.4 2.0 1.4 –.2 3.3 2.3 1.9 3.8 3.3 1.9 3.1 4.6 4.9 5.1 4.4 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.7 5.2 5.0 5.2 315,957 316,499 317,136 317,765 318,288 318,833 319,470 320,100 320,623 321,167 321,804 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 2013: I ��������������� � ��������������� II �������������� III �������������� IV 2014: I ��������������� � ��������������� II �������������� III �������������� IV 2015: I ��������������� � r ������������� II r ������������ III 13,891.3 14,025.2 14,136.3 14,220.7 14,433.5 14,612.8 14,774.8 14,955.7 15,079.8 15,277.0 15,468.7 1,641.1 1,680.8 1,673.2 1,696.0 1,736.0 1,754.1 1,792.0 1,838.8 1,900.1 1,938.7 1,958.6 12,250.3 12,344.4 12,463.1 12,524.7 12,697.5 12,858.7 12,982.7 13,116.8 13,179.8 13,338.3 13,510.1 11,683.3 11,734.7 11,830.4 11,974.4 12,060.3 12,235.2 12,377.0 12,502.5 12,492.2 12,674.5 12,804.7 567.0 609.7 632.7 550.3 637.2 623.5 605.7 614.3 687.6 663.9 705.4 11,431.2 11,506.5 11,569.3 11,585.6 11,698.8 11,784.7 11,863.1 11,998.7 12,114.7 12,193.6 12,312.2 38,772 39,003 39,299 39,415 39,893 40,331 40,638 40,977 41,107 41,531 41,982 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, personal interest payments (nonmortgage), and personal current transfer payments. 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). 6 Real Farm Income According to the revised forecast for 2015, gross farm income in chained (2009) dollars is forecast to be $399.3 billion and net farm income to be $50.9 billion. BILLIONS OF CHAINED (2009) DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF CHAINED (2009) DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 520 480 440 520 480 440 400 400 360 360 320 320 GROSS FARM INCOME 280 280 240 240 200 200 160 160 NET FARM INCOME 120 120 80 80 60 60 40 40 2006 2007 2009 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 2014 2015 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of chained (2009) dollars] Chart 7 - Nov 2015 Income of farm operators from farming 1 Gross farm income Year Value of agricultural sector production Total 1996 ��������������������������������������������������� 1997 ��������������������������������������������������� 1998 ��������������������������������������������������� 1999 ��������������������������������������������������� 2000 ��������������������������������������������������� 2001 ��������������������������������������������������� 2002 ��������������������������������������������������� 2003 ��������������������������������������������������� 2004 ��������������������������������������������������� 2005 ��������������������������������������������������� 2006 ��������������������������������������������������� 2007 ��������������������������������������������������� 2008 r ������������������������������������������������� 2009 r ������������������������������������������������� 2010 r ������������������������������������������������� 2011 r ������������������������������������������������� 2012 r ������������������������������������������������� 2013 r ������������������������������������������������� 2014 r ������������������������������������������������� 2015 r ������������������������������������������������� Crops 2, 3 Total 307.2 304.8 294.7 293.4 295.1 298.4 271.1 298.3 330.9 324.5 306.0 348.8 367.4 336.5 352.2 406.9 424.7 452.0 442.2 399.3 297.6 295.2 279.0 266.6 266.8 271.6 256.5 279.2 316.3 298.0 289.4 336.6 355.1 324.3 339.9 396.8 414.6 441.7 433.3 389.5 150.7 144.1 129.4 115.9 116.0 113.5 115.1 125.2 140.4 124.3 125.2 155.2 175.2 164.6 166.1 192.9 202.3 218.1 188.1 169.3 Livestock 3 119.9 123.3 119.3 118.9 121.0 127.0 109.9 121.1 139.4 137.5 125.9 142.2 140.5 119.5 138.5 158.4 160.7 169.2 197.6 174.2 Farm-related income 4 27.0 27.8 30.3 31.8 29.8 31.1 31.5 33.0 36.5 36.1 38.3 39.2 39.4 40.2 35.3 45.4 51.5 54.4 47.6 46.0 Direct Government payments 9.6 9.6 15.7 26.9 28.4 26.8 14.6 19.1 14.6 26.5 16.7 12.2 12.3 12.2 12.2 10.1 10.1 10.3 9.0 9.8 Production expenses Net farm income 230.4 239.1 235.0 233.9 233.2 232.8 225.1 228.0 232.8 238.9 245.5 276.9 288.6 274.3 276.0 296.6 335.8 336.7 359.1 348.4 76.8 65.7 59.7 59.6 61.9 65.5 46.0 70.3 98.1 85.6 60.6 71.9 78.8 62.3 76.1 110.3 89.0 115.3 83.1 50.9 1 The GDP chain-type price index is used to convert the current-dollar statistics to 2009=100 equivalents. 2 Crop receipts include proceeds received from commodities placed under Commodity Credit Corporation loans. 3 The value of production equates to the sum of cash receipts, home consumption, and the value of the change in inventories. 4 Includes income from forest products sold, the gross imputed rental value of farm dwellings, machine hire and custom work, and other sources of farm income such as commodity insurance indemnities. Note: Data for 2015 are forecasts. Source: Department of Agriculture (Economic Research Service). 7 Corporate Profits In the third quarter of 2015, according to current estimates, corporate profits before tax fell $56.6 billion (annual rate) and profits after tax fell $58.8 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2,600 2,500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2,600 2,500 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 2,400 2,400 2,300 2,300 2,200 2,200 2,100 2,100 PROFITS BEFORE TAX 2,000 2,000 1,900 1,900 1,800 1,800 1,700 1,700 1,600 1,600 1,500 1,500 1,400 1,400 1,300 1,300 PROFITS AFTER TAX 1,200 1,200 1,100 1,100 1,000 1,000 900 900 800 800 700 700 600 600 UNDISTRIBUTED PROFITS 500 500 400 400 300 300 TAXES ON CORPORATE INCOME 200 100 200 100 0 0 –100 –200 –100 –200 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment 1 Profits after tax Domestic industries Period 2005 �������������������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2013: I ��������������� � ��������������� II �������������� III �������������� IV 2014: I ��������������� � ��������������� II �������������� III �������������� IV 2015: I ��������������� � ��������������� II p ������������ III Total 2 1,621.2 1,815.7 1,708.9 1,345.5 1,479.2 1,799.7 1,738.5 2,116.6 2,164.9 2,204.9 2,127.5 2,172.5 2,167.5 2,192.0 2,054.4 2,203.7 2,295.0 2,266.3 2,351.5 2,414.2 2,392.9 Profits before tax Nonfinancial Total 1,382.1 1,559.6 1,355.5 938.8 1,122.0 1,404.5 1,316.6 1,706.3 1,750.1 1,786.6 1,736.0 1,761.1 1,741.0 1,762.2 1,639.9 1,795.0 1,867.9 1,843.6 1,957.8 2,009.1 2,017.8 Financial 409.7 415.1 301.5 95.4 362.9 406.3 375.9 479.0 423.6 423.4 428.6 416.5 419.8 429.6 379.8 441.7 447.3 424.9 421.9 456.2 448.3 Total 3 Manufacturing Utilities Wholesale Note: Data by industry are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 8 Total Net dividends Retail 972.4 277.7 30.8 96.2 121.7 1,144.4 349.7 55.1 105.9 132.5 1,054.0 321.9 49.5 103.2 119.0 843.4 240.6 30.1 90.6 80.3 759.2 171.4 23.8 89.3 108.7 998.2 287.6 30.3 102.4 118.6 940.7 298.1 9.8 94.4 114.3 1,227.2 395.7 12.5 135.3 154.1 1,326.4 426.4 26.4 145.5 159.4 1,363.2 439.8 27.7 147.7 158.4 1,307.4 407.6 19.0 151.2 158.3 1,344.6 418.7 33.1 147.7 167.5 1,321.2 420.2 30.5 144.6 163.8 1,332.5 459.0 23.1 138.6 148.0 1,260.1 380.4 38.9 125.7 142.5 1,353.3 454.7 32.0 134.5 154.7 1,420.7 458.0 23.1 170.1 157.7 1,418.7 466.1 16.9 160.5 178.8 1,536.0 534.6 24.9 169.1 189.4 1,553.0 537.0 28.4 163.5 175.1 1,569.5 ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� 1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 2 Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. 3 Includes industries not shown separately. Taxes on corporate income 1,653.3 1,851.4 1,748.4 1,382.4 1,472.6 1,840.7 1,806.8 2,130.8 2,161.6 2,207.8 2,136.6 2,149.4 2,163.6 2,197.0 2,111.2 2,227.6 2,279.5 2,212.8 2,252.3 2,393.7 2,337.1 412.4 473.4 445.5 309.1 269.4 370.6 379.1 447.6 468.9 513.9 454.9 461.3 475.6 483.8 497.3 527.4 518.4 512.3 517.8 549.0 551.4 1,240.9 1,378.1 1,302.9 1,073.3 1,203.1 1,470.1 1,427.7 1,683.2 1,692.7 1,693.9 1,681.7 1,688.2 1,687.9 1,713.2 1,613.9 1,700.2 1,761.1 1,700.5 1,734.5 1,844.6 1,785.8 580.5 726.0 818.9 808.6 574.6 564.0 703.7 859.4 924.0 860.0 814.2 1,065.2 870.1 946.7 857.3 857.1 853.6 872.2 878.5 879.6 r 906.8 Chart 8 - Nov 2015 Inventory Undistrib- valuation adjustment uted profits 660.4 652.1 484.0 264.7 628.5 906.2 724.0 823.8 768.7 833.9 867.5 623.0 817.9 766.4 756.7 843.1 907.5 828.3 856.0 965.0 879.0 –32.1 –35.7 –39.5 –37.0 6.7 –41.0 –68.3 –14.2 3.2 –2.9 –9.1 23.0 3.9 –4.9 –56.9 –24.0 15.5 53.5 99.2 20.5 55.8 Real Gross Private Domestic Investment In the third quarter of 2015, according to revised estimates, nonresidential fixed investment in chained (2009) dollars rose $13.1 billion (annual rate) and residential investment rose $9.3 billion. Inventories rose $90.2 billion, following an increase of $113.5 billion in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF CHAINED (2009) DOLLARS 3,000 BILLIONS OF CHAINED (2009) DOLLARS 3,000 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 2,800 2,800 2,600 2,600 2,400 2,400 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 2,200 2,200 2,000 2,000 1,800 1,800 1,600 1,600 NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT 600 600 400 400 CHANGE IN PRIVATE INVENTORIES 200 200 0 0 –200 –200 –400 –400 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of chained (2009) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Chart 9 - Nov 2015 Fixed investment Period 2005 ��������������������������������������������������� 2006 ��������������������������������������������������� 2007 ��������������������������������������������������� 2008 ��������������������������������������������������� 2009 ��������������������������������������������������� 2010 ��������������������������������������������������� 2011 ��������������������������������������������������� 2012 ��������������������������������������������������� 2013 ��������������������������������������������������� 2014 ��������������������������������������������������� 2013: I ���������������������������������������������� � ���������������������������������������������� II ��������������������������������������������� III ��������������������������������������������� IV 2014: I ���������������������������������������������� � ���������������������������������������������� II ��������������������������������������������� III ��������������������������������������������� IV 2015: I ���������������������������������������������� � ���������������������������������������������� II r ������������������������������������������� III Gross private domestic investment 2,672.6 2,730.0 2,644.1 2,396.0 1,878.1 2,120.4 2,230.4 2,465.7 2,577.3 2,717.7 2,505.1 2,537.2 2,619.7 2,647.1 2,630.5 2,709.5 2,758.1 2,772.5 2,830.2 2,864.8 2,862.4 Change in private inventories Nonresidential Total 2,611.0 2,662.5 2,609.6 2,432.6 2,025.7 2,056.2 2,186.7 2,400.4 2,501.9 2,633.8 2,470.6 2,486.3 2,509.5 2,541.0 2,578.3 2,613.4 2,663.5 2,679.7 2,701.4 2,735.5 2,758.4 Total 1,717.4 1,839.6 1,948.4 1,934.4 1,633.4 1,673.8 1,802.3 1,964.1 2,023.7 2,148.3 2,000.7 2,005.7 2,023.1 2,065.5 2,106.9 2,129.8 2,176.3 2,180.0 2,188.6 2,210.6 2,223.7 Structures 421.2 451.5 509.0 540.2 438.2 366.3 374.7 423.1 429.7 464.6 411.0 422.6 440.4 444.7 464.6 464.4 462.3 467.1 458.2 465.2 456.7 Equipment 801.6 870.8 898.3 836.1 644.3 746.7 847.9 939.2 969.5 1,026.2 967.4 965.3 956.0 989.3 997.9 1,013.7 1,053.1 1,040.0 1,046.0 1,046.9 1,070.9 Intellectual property products 495.0 517.5 542.4 558.8 550.9 561.3 581.3 603.8 626.9 659.5 625.3 620.3 628.3 633.7 645.7 653.4 663.8 675.0 687.1 701.0 699.5 Residential 872.6 806.6 654.8 497.7 392.2 382.4 384.5 436.5 478.0 486.4 469.9 480.3 486.0 475.9 472.6 484.4 488.5 500.2 512.4 524.0 533.3 Total Nonfarm 64.3 71.6 35.5 –33.7 –147.6 58.2 37.6 54.7 61.4 68.0 25.2 39.6 93.6 87.2 36.9 77.1 79.9 78.2 112.8 113.5 90.2 63.9 75.4 36.5 –35.0 –146.0 65.9 36.6 72.7 54.3 65.0 23.5 32.9 84.0 76.6 36.2 74.5 74.5 74.9 106.8 111.0 85.1 Note: See p. 10 for further detail on fixed investment by type. Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2009) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 9 Real Private Fixed Investment by Type [Billions of chained (2009) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nonresidential Equipment Total fixed investment Period 2005 ������������ 2006 ������������ 2007 ������������ 2008 ������������ 2009 ������������ 2010 ������������ 2011 ������������ 2012 ������������ 2013 ������������ 2014 ������������ 2013: I ������� � ������� II ������ III ������ IV 2014: I ������� � ������� II ������ III ������ IV 2015: I ������� � ������� II r ���� III Residential Total nonresidential 2,611.0 2,662.5 2,609.6 2,432.6 2,025.7 2,056.2 2,186.7 2,400.4 2,501.9 2,633.8 2,470.6 2,486.3 2,509.5 2,541.0 2,578.3 2,613.4 2,663.5 2,679.7 2,701.4 2,735.5 2,758.4 Intellectual property products Information processing equipment Structures 1,717.4 1,839.6 1,948.4 1,934.4 1,633.4 1,673.8 1,802.3 1,964.1 2,023.7 2,148.3 2,000.7 2,005.7 2,023.1 2,065.5 2,106.9 2,129.8 2,176.3 2,180.0 2,188.6 2,210.6 2,223.7 Total 2 421.2 451.5 509.0 540.2 438.2 366.3 374.7 423.1 429.7 464.6 411.0 422.6 440.4 444.7 464.6 464.4 462.3 467.1 458.2 465.2 456.7 Computers and peripheral equipment 1 Total 801.6 870.8 898.3 836.1 644.3 746.7 847.9 939.2 969.5 1,026.2 967.4 965.3 956.0 989.3 997.9 1,013.7 1,053.1 1,040.0 1,046.0 1,046.9 1,070.9 222.2 250.9 279.9 281.0 256.1 281.4 285.9 303.1 314.4 326.4 315.3 312.8 317.0 312.5 316.2 329.0 322.8 337.6 334.2 330.5 350.6 ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ Other 172.6 187.5 207.9 204.2 179.3 196.8 202.8 214.5 222.3 236.8 222.1 223.2 225.2 218.8 228.5 239.0 232.2 247.5 248.8 240.3 256.2 Industrial Transportation equipequipment ment 183.6 199.1 205.3 195.5 152.1 151.3 183.3 199.8 194.8 208.9 198.5 193.9 194.7 192.0 202.2 209.2 213.5 210.8 210.0 220.9 218.5 Software Total 2 197.9 212.6 203.6 156.9 70.6 136.9 183.0 218.9 243.1 271.8 228.5 244.0 239.6 260.4 258.5 261.7 286.5 280.4 288.1 285.1 297.6 Structures Research and development 3 221.2 230.3 244.2 256.2 256.8 254.2 271.8 286.6 295.8 315.0 296.7 290.5 296.2 299.9 305.8 311.6 319.1 323.4 330.6 335.4 336.2 Total residential 2 202.3 215.0 227.9 235.5 229.0 234.4 236.7 242.9 255.3 266.8 253.5 254.0 256.4 257.4 262.8 264.5 267.1 272.8 277.4 285.7 283.8 495.0 517.5 542.4 558.8 550.9 561.3 581.3 603.8 626.9 659.5 625.3 620.3 628.3 633.7 645.7 653.4 663.8 675.0 687.1 701.0 699.5 872.6 806.6 654.8 497.7 392.2 382.4 384.5 436.5 478.0 486.4 469.9 480.3 486.0 475.9 472.6 484.4 488.5 500.2 512.4 524.0 533.3 Total 2 862.5 796.3 644.9 488.4 383.9 373.6 375.3 427.1 467.9 475.8 460.0 470.3 475.8 465.7 462.3 473.8 477.8 489.3 501.4 512.8 521.9 Single family 433.0 390.7 283.7 178.2 105.3 114.4 109.2 132.1 161.9 170.9 156.3 163.2 165.4 162.9 166.5 169.7 168.8 178.6 182.4 184.5 189.3 1 Because computers exhibit rapid changes in prices relative to other prices in the economy, the chained-dollar estimates should not be used to measure the component’s relative importance or its contribution to the growth rate of more aggregate series. The quantity index for computers can be used to accurately measure the real growth rate of this series. For information on this component, see Survey of Current Business Table 5.3.1 (for growth rates), Table 5.3.2 (for contributions), and Table 5.3.3 (for quantity indexes). 2 Includes other items, not shown separately. 3 Research and development investment excludes expenditures for software development. Note: Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2009) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). Business Investment [Billions of dollars] Capital expenditures By industry Period Total capital expenditures Forestry, Total fishing, by and agri- Mining industry cultural services ConManu- WholeUtilities struction facturing sale trade Retail trade TransportaFinance tion Informaand and tion insurwareance housing ProfesReal sional, estate scienand tific, rental and and technical leasing services Health care and social assistance Other 1 For companies without employees For companies with employees 1999 �������� 2000 �������� 2001 �������� 2002 �������� 2003 �������� 2004 �������� 2005 �������� 2006 �������� 2007 �������� 2008 �������� 2009 �������� 2010 �������� 2011 �������� 2012 �������� 2013 ��������� 1,047.0 1,161.0 1,109.0 997.9 975.0 1,042.1 1,144.8 1,309.9 1,354.7 1,374.2 1,090.7 1,105.7 1,243.0 1,423.6 1,488.2 974.6 1,089.9 1,052.3 917.5 886.8 953.2 1,062.5 1,217.1 1,270.5 1,294.5 1,015.3 1,036.2 1,169.6 1,334.4 1,397.8 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.7 2.7 2.1 2.3 2.2 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.0 30.6 42.5 51.3 42.5 50.5 51.3 66.7 99.3 120.7 149.3 100.6 115.7 165.7 196.7 198.1 42.8 61.3 82.8 65.5 54.6 50.4 58.0 69.8 85.4 98.7 103.0 94.5 98.0 125.0 111.7 23.1 25.0 24.8 24.8 23.2 28.6 30.1 30.3 36.7 40.8 19.8 17.9 21.8 23.6 27.6 196.4 214.8 192.8 157.2 149.1 156.7 165.6 192.4 197.3 213.1 155.2 160.8 192.4 203.1 219.8 32.4 33.6 30.0 26.8 26.0 32.3 40.6 36.6 30.8 32.4 25.3 31.1 35.7 40.9 38.3 64.1 69.8 66.9 59.3 65.9 72.2 73.5 86.7 82.5 73.2 58.4 65.3 68.1 77.6 77.5 57.3 59.9 57.8 47.1 44.5 46.1 56.9 68.0 67.4 79.6 55.7 59.0 72.7 81.8 93.4 122.8 160.2 144.8 88.2 80.5 83.5 91.4 104.4 106.1 103.3 88.4 97.2 100.1 106.5 123.1 130.1 133.7 131.1 128.4 120.8 153.6 161.4 163.1 173.4 132.9 99.5 103.1 109.2 130.2 139.9 100.6 92.5 82.7 94.5 88.0 91.6 103.0 132.1 117.5 106.9 72.9 81.3 91.1 115.7 113.9 29.5 34.1 30.5 25.9 24.7 26.7 33.1 30.3 31.8 33.0 28.2 28.2 28.1 31.6 35.6 51.3 52.2 52.9 59.3 61.2 64.6 73.8 75.3 84.2 90.2 79.4 78.4 83.1 88.9 93.3 91.8 108.9 102.5 96.1 96.2 93.6 105.6 126.3 134.8 138.7 127.0 100.6 100.4 110.0 122.7 72.3 71.2 56.7 80.4 88.2 88.9 82.2 92.8 84.2 79.7 75.4 69.5 73.4 89.2 90.4 1 Includes the following industries: Management of companies and enterprises; administrative and support and waste management; educational services; arts, entertainment, and recreation; accommodation and food services; and other services (except public administration). Also includes an item for structure and equipment expenditures serving multiple industry categories. Note: Data from Annual Capital Expenditures. Industry data are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Data shown in this table are capital expenditures for both new and used structures and equipment. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census). 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force In November, employment as measured by the household survey rose by 244,000 and unemployment rose 29,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 162 162 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 158 158 154 154 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE 150 150 146 146 142 142 138 138 CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT 134 134 20 20 UNEMPLOYMENT 16 16 12 12 8 8 4 4 0 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 *16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 2015 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Period 2005 �������������������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2014: Nov ���������� ����������� Dec 2015: Jan ���������� � ����������� Feb ���������� Mar ����������� Apr May ��������� � June �������� � ���������� July ���������� Aug Sept ��������� ����������� Oct ���������� Nov Civilian noninstitutional population (NSA) 226,082 228,815 231,867 233,788 235,801 237,830 239,618 243,284 245,679 247,947 248,844 249,027 249,723 249,899 250,080 250,266 250,455 250,663 250,876 251,096 251,325 251,541 251,747 Civilian employment Civilian labor force Total 149,320 151,428 153,124 154,287 154,142 153,889 153,617 154,975 155,389 155,922 156,402 156,129 157,180 157,002 156,906 157,072 157,469 157,037 157,106 157,065 156,715 157,028 157,301 141,730 144,427 146,047 145,362 139,877 139,064 139,869 142,469 143,929 146,305 147,331 147,442 148,201 148,297 148,331 148,523 148,795 148,739 148,840 149,036 148,800 149,120 149,364 Men 20 years and over 73,050 74,431 75,337 74,750 71,341 71,230 72,182 73,403 74,176 75,471 75,675 76,026 76,496 76,588 76,653 76,805 76,833 76,783 76,903 76,880 76,763 76,852 76,763 Women 20 years and over 62,702 63,834 64,799 65,039 63,699 63,456 63,360 64,640 65,295 66,287 66,894 66,632 66,983 66,901 66,874 66,935 67,178 67,294 67,271 67,502 67,346 67,568 67,903 Percent 1 Chart 11 - Nov 2015 Unemployment Both sexes 16–19 years 5,978 6,162 5,911 5,573 4,837 4,378 4,327 4,426 4,458 4,548 4,762 4,784 4,722 4,808 4,804 4,784 4,784 4,662 4,666 4,654 4,690 4,700 4,697 Total 7,591 7,001 7,078 8,924 14,265 14,825 13,747 12,506 11,460 9,617 9,071 8,688 8,979 8,705 8,575 8,549 8,674 8,299 8,266 8,029 7,915 7,908 7,937 Men 20 years and over 3,392 3,131 3,259 4,297 7,555 7,763 6,898 5,984 5,568 4,585 4,354 4,245 4,308 4,243 4,099 4,079 4,082 3,897 3,887 3,760 3,790 3,809 3,803 Women 20 years and over 3,013 2,751 2,718 3,342 5,157 5,534 5,450 5,125 4,565 3,926 3,705 3,479 3,575 3,469 3,455 3,483 3,553 3,372 3,474 3,324 3,214 3,211 3,260 Both sexes 16–19 years 1,186 1,119 1,101 1,285 1,552 1,528 1,400 1,397 1,327 1,106 1,013 963 1,096 993 1,021 986 1,039 1,029 904 945 911 888 875 Not in labor force 76,762 77,387 78,743 79,501 81,659 83,941 86,001 88,310 90,290 92,025 92,442 92,898 92,544 92,898 93,175 93,194 92,986 93,626 93,770 94,031 94,610 94,513 94,446 Labor Employ- Unemployforce ment/ participa- population ment tion rate ratio rate 66.0 66.2 66.0 66.0 65.4 64.7 64.1 63.7 63.2 62.9 62.9 62.7 62.9 62.8 62.7 62.8 62.9 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.4 62.4 62.5 62.7 63.1 63.0 62.2 59.3 58.5 58.4 58.6 58.6 59.0 59.2 59.2 59.3 59.3 59.3 59.3 59.4 59.3 59.3 59.4 59.2 59.3 59.3 5.1 4.6 4.6 5.8 9.3 9.6 8.9 8.1 7.4 6.2 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 1 Civilian labor force (or employment) as percent of civilian noninstitutional population; and unemployment as percent of civilian labor force. Note: Beginning each January, data reflect revised population controls and are not strictly comparable with earlier data. See Employment and Earnings for details on breaks in series. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 11 Selected Unemployment Rates In November, the unemployment rate remained at 5.0 percent. PERCENT (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 30 30 TEENAGERS (16-19) 25 25 20 20 BLACK OR AFRICAN AMERICAN1 15 15 10 5 WHITE1 MEN 20 YEARS AND OVER 10 HISPANIC1,2 5 ALL CIVILIAN WORKERS WOMEN 20 YEARS AND OVER 1 ASIAN 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1 SEE FOOTNOTE 1 TABLE BELOW. HISPANIC OR LATINO ETHNICITY. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 2 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) Chart 12 - Nov 2015 By race or ethnicity 1 By sex and age Period 2005 �������������������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2014: Nov ���������� ����������� Dec 2015: Jan ���������� � ����������� Feb ���������� Mar ����������� Apr May ��������� � June �������� � ���������� July ���������� Aug Sept ��������� ����������� Oct ���������� Nov All civilian workers 5.1 4.6 4.6 5.8 9.3 9.6 8.9 8.1 7.4 6.2 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over 4.4 4.0 4.1 5.4 9.6 9.8 8.7 7.5 7.0 5.7 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.1 4.0 4.9 7.5 8.0 7.9 7.3 6.5 5.6 5.2 5.0 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.6 Both sexes 16–19 years 16.6 15.4 15.7 18.7 24.3 25.9 24.4 24.0 22.9 19.6 17.5 16.8 18.8 17.1 17.5 17.1 17.9 18.1 16.2 16.9 16.3 15.9 15.7 White 4.4 4.0 4.1 5.2 8.5 8.7 7.9 7.2 6.5 5.3 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 Black or African American 10.0 8.9 8.3 10.1 14.8 16.0 15.8 13.8 13.1 11.3 11.0 10.4 10.3 10.4 10.1 9.6 10.2 9.5 9.1 9.5 9.2 9.2 9.4 By selected groups Hispanic or Latino ethnicity Asian 4.0 3.0 3.2 4.0 7.3 7.5 7.0 5.9 5.2 5.0 4.7 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.2 4.4 4.1 3.8 4.0 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.9 1 Persons who selected this race group only. Persons whose ethnicity is identified as Hispanic or Latino may be of any race. Note: Data relate to persons age 16 years and over. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 12 6.0 5.2 5.6 7.6 12.1 12.5 11.5 10.3 9.1 7.4 6.6 6.5 6.7 6.6 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.3 6.4 Married men, spouse present 2.8 2.4 2.5 3.4 6.6 6.8 5.8 4.9 4.3 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 Women who maintain families (NSA) 7.8 7.1 6.5 8.0 11.5 12.3 12.4 11.4 10.2 8.6 8.2 7.8 8.1 7.7 8.1 7.0 6.8 7.8 8.0 8.1 7.1 7.5 6.9 Full-time workers 5.0 4.5 4.6 5.8 10.0 10.4 9.6 8.5 7.7 6.4 6.0 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.3 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 Part-time workers 5.4 5.1 4.9 5.5 6.0 6.3 6.3 6.1 5.9 5.4 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.9 Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs In November, the percentages of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and 15 to 26 weeks rose, while the percentages for 5 to 14 weeks and 27 weeks and over fell. The mean duration of unemployment remained at 28.0 weeks and the median duration fell to 10.8 weeks. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 70 DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT 60 REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT 60 50 50 JOB LOSERS 27 WEEKS AND OVER 40 40 30 5-14 WEEKS REENTRANTS LESS THAN 5 WEEKS 30 20 20 NEW ENTRANTS 15-26 WEEKS 10 10 JOB LEAVERS 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 2014 2015 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Chart 13 - Nov 2015 Duration of unemployment Period Unemployment (thousands) Percent distribution Less than 5 weeks 5–14 weeks 15–26 weeks Reason for unemployment: percent distribution Number of weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) 1 Median Job losers Job leavers Reentrants New entrants State programs Insured unemployment (NSA) Initial claims (NSA) Insured unemployment, all programs (NSA) 2 Weekly average, thousands 2005 �������������������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2014: Nov ���������� ����������� Dec 2015: Jan ���������� � ����������� Feb ���������� Mar ����������� Apr May ��������� � June �������� � ���������� July ���������� Aug Sept ��������� ����������� Oct ���������� Nov 7,591 7,001 7,078 8,924 14,265 14,825 13,747 12,506 11,460 9,617 9,071 8,688 8,979 8,705 8,575 8,549 8,674 8,299 8,266 8,029 7,915 7,908 7,937 35.1 37.3 35.9 32.8 22.2 18.7 19.5 21.1 22.5 25.7 27.5 27.2 26.8 27.9 28.9 31.4 27.6 28.6 30.7 26.5 29.9 29.1 30.1 30.4 30.3 31.5 31.4 26.8 22.0 21.8 22.9 24.1 25.3 26.1 26.3 26.1 25.6 26.8 26.5 29.0 28.7 27.8 30.0 28.1 28.9 28.3 14.9 14.7 15.0 16.0 19.5 16.0 15.0 14.9 15.8 15.6 15.4 14.6 15.5 15.4 14.5 13.1 14.8 16.9 14.6 15.8 15.4 15.2 15.9 19.6 17.6 17.6 19.7 31.5 43.3 43.8 41.1 37.6 33.5 31.0 31.9 31.5 31.1 29.8 29.0 28.6 25.8 26.9 27.7 26.6 26.8 25.7 18.4 16.8 16.8 17.9 24.4 33.0 39.3 39.4 36.5 33.7 33.0 32.8 32.3 31.7 30.7 30.8 30.7 28.1 28.3 28.4 26.3 28.0 28.0 8.9 8.3 8.5 9.4 15.1 21.4 21.4 19.3 17.0 14.0 12.8 12.6 13.4 13.1 12.2 11.7 11.6 11.3 11.3 12.1 11.4 11.2 10.8 48.3 47.4 49.7 53.7 64.2 62.4 59.0 55.0 53.0 50.7 49.1 49.2 47.4 48.1 48.9 48.6 49.1 49.2 50.2 50.5 49.1 49.6 48.8 11.5 11.8 11.2 10.0 6.2 6.0 7.0 7.7 8.1 8.6 9.2 9.1 9.5 10.2 10.2 9.7 9.5 9.3 10.2 9.8 9.8 9.9 10.0 31.4 32.0 30.3 27.7 22.3 23.4 24.7 26.7 28.0 29.4 30.3 30.7 31.6 30.5 31.4 31.5 30.1 30.3 29.6 29.1 30.6 30.4 30.6 8.8 2,661 328 2,709 8.8 2,476 313 2,521 8.9 2,572 324 2,612 8.6 3,306 424 3,899 7.3 5,724 568 9,123 8.2 4,487 454 9,732 9.3 3,679 406 7,630 10.5 3,297 374 6,048 10.9 2,947 342 4,605 11.3 2,574 305 2,658 11.5 2,277 316 2,323 11.0 2,814 435 2,865 11.5 2,912 399 2,958 11.2 2,759 296 2,801 9.5 3,120 282 3,166 10.2 2,400 289 2,438 11.2 2,224 254 2,260 11.2 2,311 300 2,346 r 2,326 r 2,360 10.0 298 r 2,499 10.6 2,461 246 10.5 2,003 233 2,037 10.1 1,872 266 1,907 10.6 ��������������� ��������������� ����������������� 1 Beginning January 2011, includes unemployment durations of up to 5 years; prior data are for up to 2 years. 2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands), Federal (UCFE), ex-service members (UCX), and Federal and State extended benefit programs. Emergency Unemployment Compensation (2008-2013) and Federal Additional Compensation (2009-2010). Also includes Note: Data relate to persons age 16 years and over (except for insured unemployment and initial claims). Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 Nonagricultural Employment Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 211,000 in November. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 145 102 100 ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 140 PRIVATE SERVICE-PROVIDING INDUSTRIES 98 96 135 94 92 130 90 125 22 EDUCATION AND HEALTH SERVICES 24 PROFESSIONAL AND BUSINESS SERVICES 20 120 18 PRIVATE INDUSTRIES 115 RETAIL TRADE 16 14 22 110 GOODS-PRODUCING 20 105 18 16 100 14 24 GOVERNMENT MANUFACTURING 12 22 20 10 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 2014 2015 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thousands of wage and salary workers; 1 monthly data seasonally adjusted] Chart 14 - Nov 2015 Private industries Period 2005 �������������������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2014: Nov ���������� ����������� Dec 2015: Jan ���������� � ����������� Feb ���������� Mar ����������� Apr May ��������� � June �������� � ���������� July ���������� Aug Sept r �������� r ���������� Oct p �������� Nov Total nonagricultural employment 134,005 136,398 137,936 137,170 131,233 130,275 131,842 134,104 136,393 139,042 140,263 140,592 140,793 141,059 141,178 141,365 141,625 141,870 142,093 142,246 142,391 142,689 142,900 Goods-producing industries Total private 112,201 114,424 115,718 114,661 108,678 107,785 109,756 112,184 114,541 117,180 118,371 118,690 118,892 119,153 119,270 119,459 119,711 119,929 120,124 120,249 120,414 120,718 120,915 Total 2 Construc- Manufaction turing 22,190 22,530 22,233 21,335 18,558 17,751 18,047 18,420 18,738 19,223 19,425 19,489 19,540 19,560 19,540 19,556 19,554 19,551 19,558 19,537 19,533 19,563 19,597 7,336 7,691 7,630 7,162 6,016 5,518 5,533 5,646 5,856 6,138 6,231 6,275 6,316 6,347 6,335 6,365 6,377 6,378 6,383 6,391 6,410 6,444 6,490 14,227 14,155 13,879 13,406 11,847 11,528 11,726 11,927 12,020 12,188 12,282 12,301 12,318 12,321 12,327 12,327 12,333 12,334 12,345 12,326 12,318 12,319 12,318 Private service-providing industries Trade, transportation, and utilities Total Total 3 90,010 91,894 93,485 93,326 90,121 90,034 91,708 93,763 95,803 97,957 98,946 99,201 99,352 99,593 99,730 99,903 100,157 100,378 100,566 100,712 100,881 101,155 101,318 25,959 26,276 26,630 26,293 24,906 24,636 25,065 25,476 25,862 26,384 26,615 26,669 26,704 26,748 26,787 26,807 26,864 26,916 26,963 26,979 26,983 27,026 27,075 Retail trade 15,280 15,353 15,520 15,283 14,522 14,440 14,668 14,841 15,079 15,364 15,498 15,497 15,533 15,556 15,587 15,598 15,631 15,667 15,696 15,700 15,710 15,751 15,782 Information Financial activities 3,061 3,038 3,032 2,984 2,804 2,707 2,674 2,676 2,706 2,740 2,761 2,767 2,773 2,780 2,778 2,788 2,787 2,790 2,794 2,790 2,805 2,807 2,795 8,197 8,367 8,348 8,206 7,838 7,695 7,697 7,784 7,886 7,979 8,042 8,049 8,068 8,077 8,090 8,097 8,106 8,127 8,142 8,156 8,159 8,169 8,183 Profes- Education Leisure sional and and and health business services hospitality services 16,954 17,566 17,942 17,735 16,579 16,728 17,332 17,932 18,515 19,096 19,367 19,439 19,459 19,508 19,547 19,613 19,681 19,749 19,789 19,824 19,856 19,946 19,973 17,630 18,099 18,613 19,156 19,550 19,889 20,228 20,698 21,097 21,475 21,664 21,718 21,760 21,821 21,863 21,917 21,974 22,035 22,077 22,133 22,191 22,262 22,302 12,816 13,110 13,427 13,436 13,077 13,049 13,353 13,768 14,254 14,710 14,892 14,948 14,972 15,033 15,039 15,047 15,103 15,122 15,154 15,191 15,243 15,291 15,330 Other services 5,395 5,438 5,494 5,515 5,367 5,331 5,360 5,430 5,483 5,573 5,605 5,611 5,616 5,626 5,626 5,634 5,642 5,639 5,647 5,639 5,644 5,654 5,660 Government 21,804 21,974 22,218 22,509 22,555 22,490 22,086 21,920 21,853 21,863 21,892 21,902 21,901 21,906 21,908 21,906 21,914 21,941 21,969 21,997 21,977 21,971 21,985 1 Data from the establishment survey. Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who received pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, unpaid family workers, and private household workers. Data from the household survey shown on p. 11 include those workers and also count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off. In the series shown here, persons who work at more than one job are counted each time they appear on a payroll, in contrast to the series shown on p. 11 where persons are counted only once—as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force. See Employment and Earnings for details. 2 Includes mining and logging, not shown separately. 3 Includes wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, and utilities, not shown separately. Note: Data classified by industry based on the 2012 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). For details see Employment and Earnings. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 14 Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings— Private Nonagricultural Industries [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Average weekly hours Total private nonagricultural 1 Period 2005 �������������������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2014: Oct ����������� ���������� Nov ����������� Dec 2015: Jan ���������� � ����������� Feb ���������� Mar ����������� Apr May ��������� � June �������� � ���������� July ���������� Aug Sept r �������� r ���������� Oct p �������� Nov Average gross hourly earnings Total private nonagricultural 1 Manufacturing Total 33.8 33.9 33.8 33.6 33.1 33.4 33.6 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.8 33.8 33.7 33.8 33.7 33.6 33.6 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.6 33.7 33.7 Overtime 40.7 41.1 41.2 40.8 39.8 41.1 41.4 41.7 41.8 42.0 42.1 42.2 42.1 42.1 41.9 41.8 41.8 41.8 41.8 41.8 41.8 41.8 41.8 41.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 3.7 2.9 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.2 Current dollars Manufacturing 1982-84 dollars 2 $16.12 $8.44 16.75 8.50 17.42 8.59 18.07 8.56 18.61 8.88 19.05 8.90 19.44 8.77 19.74 8.73 20.13 8.78 20.61 8.85 20.72 8.87 20.77 8.93 20.72 8.95 20.81 9.07 20.82 9.05 20.88 9.05 20.91 9.06 20.97 9.04 20.98 9.01 21.02 9.02 21.09 9.06 21.10 9.09 21.18 9.10 21.19 ����������������� Average gross weekly earnings Total private nonagricultural 1 Current dollars $16.56 16.81 17.26 17.75 18.24 18.61 18.93 19.08 19.30 19.56 19.65 19.64 19.62 19.64 19.70 19.77 19.80 19.85 19.88 19.95 20.00 20.07 20.06 20.05 Percent change from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural Current dollars 1982-84 dollars 2 Manufacturing $673.30 690.88 711.53 724.46 726.12 765.15 784.29 794.63 807.37 822.24 827.27 828.81 826.00 826.84 825.43 826.39 827.64 829.73 830.98 833.91 836.00 838.93 838.51 838.09 $544.05 $284.84 567.39 287.87 589.27 290.61 607.53 287.86 616.01 293.86 636.25 297.36 653.19 294.79 665.82 294.31 677.67 295.51 694.89 298.53 698.26 298.84 702.03 301.78 700.34 302.48 701.30 305.74 703.72 306.00 703.66 305.08 702.58 304.39 704.59 303.64 707.03 303.66 708.37 303.84 710.73 305.18 708.96 305.30 713.77 306.80 714.10 ����������������� Construction Retail trade $750.37 781.59 816.23 842.61 851.76 891.83 921.84 942.14 958.72 977.05 982.48 985.75 988.72 982.64 988.72 988.94 993.03 991.70 1,005.75 987.61 999.90 973.28 1,019.47 1,005.84 Current dollars $377.58 383.12 385.00 386.21 388.57 400.07 412.09 422.10 423.07 431.64 435.30 437.96 437.23 440.97 441.83 438.60 440.10 441.60 443.10 444.60 447.29 452.70 449.10 450.28 1982-84 dollars 2 2.9 –0.6 4.3 1.1 3.9 1.0 3.1 –.9 1.4 2.1 3.3 1.2 2.7 –.9 1.9 –.2 1.8 .4 2.5 1.0 2.6 1.1 2.6 1.5 2.5 2.2 2.6 3.5 2.6 3.3 1.9 2.4 1.6 2.3 1.7 2.2 1.9 2.2 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.2 1.7 2.4 2.2 2.7 1.7 ������������������� 1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. 2 Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI–W) (on a 1982-84=100 base). Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). Employment Cost Index—Private Industry Index (December 2005 = 100) Period Total compensation Wages and salaries Percent change from 3 months earlier Benefits 1 Total compensation 12 months earlier Wages and salaries Benefits 1 Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits 1 Not seasonally adjusted 2005: Dec ����������������������������������������� � 2006: Dec ����������������������������������������� � 2007: Dec ����������������������������������������� � 2008: Dec ����������������������������������������� � 2009: Dec ����������������������������������������� � 2010: Dec ����������������������������������������� � 2011: Dec ����������������������������������������� � 2012: Dec ����������������������������������������� � 2013: Dec ����������������������������������������� � 2014: Dec ����������������������������������������� � 100.0 103.2 106.3 108.9 110.2 112.5 115.0 117.1 119.4 122.2 100.0 103.2 106.6 109.4 110.8 112.8 114.6 116.6 119.0 121.6 100.0 103.1 105.6 107.7 108.7 111.9 115.9 118.2 120.5 123.5 ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� Seasonally adjusted 2013: Mar ����������������������������������������� June ��������������������������������������� � Sept ���������������������������������������� ������������������������������������������ Dec 2014: Mar ����������������������������������������� June ��������������������������������������� � Sept ���������������������������������������� ������������������������������������������ Dec 2015: Mar ����������������������������������������� June ��������������������������������������� � Sept ���������������������������������������� 117.9 118.5 119.0 119.6 119.9 120.9 121.7 122.3 123.2 123.2 124.0 117.4 118.0 118.4 119.1 119.4 120.3 121.1 121.7 122.6 122.8 123.6 119.1 119.7 120.3 120.7 121.3 122.6 123.2 123.8 124.5 124.2 124.8 2.9 3.2 3.0 2.4 1.2 2.1 2.2 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.5 3.2 3.3 2.6 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.2 4.0 3.1 2.4 2.0 0.9 2.9 3.6 2.0 1.9 2.5 Not seasonally adjusted 0.6 .5 .4 .5 .3 .8 .7 .5 .7 .0 .6 0.6 .5 .3 .6 .3 .8 .7 .5 .7 .2 .7 0.5 .5 .5 .3 .5 1.1 .5 .5 .6 –.2 .5 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.8 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.8 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.6 1.4 1.4 1 Employer costs for employee benefits. Note: The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries. Data exclude farm and household workers. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 15 Productivity and Related Data, Business and Nonfarm Business Sectors Output per hour of all persons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Hours of all persons 2 Output 1 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Compensation per hour 3 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real compensation per hour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit labor costs Implicit price deflator 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 94.8 97.6 100.4 102.2 100.0 98.6 100.7 102.7 103.6 105.6 101.4 100.6 101.4 99.4 101.7 101.7 102.1 105.3 102.7 104.1 103.9 103.6 106.0 105.0 105.0 106.5 107.1 107.7 108.1 94.7 97.5 100.1 102.1 100.0 98.7 100.7 102.5 103.6 105.7 101.5 100.6 101.4 99.4 101.5 101.5 101.8 105.0 102.5 104.1 104.0 103.7 106.0 105.0 105.1 106.5 107.2 107.8 108.2 93.5 96.0 98.2 99.8 100.0 101.1 103.3 105.3 106.9 108.4 102.3 103.1 103.8 104.0 104.5 105.0 105.7 106.0 106.4 106.6 107.1 107.4 107.8 108.4 108.7 108.5 108.5 109.1 109.4 93.4 96.0 97.9 99.4 100.0 101.0 102.8 104.7 106.3 107.9 101.9 102.6 103.2 103.5 104.0 104.5 105.1 105.3 105.7 106.0 106.5 107.0 107.4 107.8 108.3 108.2 108.3 109.0 109.2 1.5 2.9 2.9 1.8 –2.2 –1.4 2.1 2.0 .8 2.0 10.6 –2.9 3.2 –7.7 9.6 .2 1.5 13.1 –9.7 5.7 –.9 –1.2 9.9 –3.7 .0 5.6 2.6 2.1 1.3 1.6 3.0 2.7 2.0 –2.0 –1.3 2.1 1.7 1.1 2.0 11.0 –3.5 3.3 –7.7 8.9 –.1 1.1 13.1 –9.1 6.2 –.5 –1.2 9.3 –3.5 .1 5.7 2.6 2.0 1.8 3.1 2.7 2.3 1.5 .2 1.1 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.7 3.1 2.7 .8 1.7 2.1 2.4 1.4 1.6 .6 1.7 1.2 1.5 2.3 1.2 –.6 –.1 2.2 .9 3.4 2.8 2.0 1.5 .6 1.0 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.5 .9 2.8 2.5 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 2.2 1.7 1.3 1.9 1.8 –.5 .5 2.3 1.0 Indexes, 2009=100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 2005 �������������������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2011: I ��������������� � ��������������� II �������������� III �������������� IV 2012: I ��������������� � ��������������� II �������������� III �������������� IV 2013: I ��������������� � ��������������� II �������������� III �������������� IV 2014: I ��������������� � ��������������� II �������������� III �������������� IV 2015: I ��������������� � r ������������� II r * ��������� III 93.7 94.6 96.0 96.8 100.0 103.3 103.4 104.1 104.6 105.2 103.0 103.4 103.1 103.9 103.9 104.5 104.3 103.8 104.1 104.2 104.6 105.4 104.5 105.2 105.9 105.2 104.9 105.8 106.5 93.8 94.7 96.2 96.9 100.0 103.3 103.5 104.4 104.4 105.2 103.1 103.5 103.3 104.0 104.2 104.9 104.6 104.1 104.0 104.0 104.4 105.3 104.4 105.1 105.9 105.3 105.0 105.9 106.5 100.1 103.3 105.5 104.2 100.0 103.2 105.3 108.4 110.6 113.9 104.1 105.1 105.3 106.9 107.8 108.5 108.6 108.7 109.4 109.8 110.9 112.2 111.8 113.3 114.8 115.6 115.8 117.2 117.8 100.2 103.4 105.8 104.4 100.0 103.2 105.5 108.8 110.6 114.0 104.1 105.2 105.5 107.0 108.1 108.8 109.1 109.1 109.6 109.9 110.8 112.2 111.9 113.4 114.9 115.6 115.8 117.2 117.8 106.8 109.1 109.8 107.7 100.0 99.9 101.9 104.1 105.7 108.3 101.0 101.6 102.2 102.9 103.7 103.8 104.2 104.8 105.1 105.4 106.0 106.5 107.0 107.7 108.5 109.9 110.4 110.7 110.6 106.9 109.3 110.0 107.8 100.0 99.9 101.9 104.1 105.9 108.4 101.0 101.7 102.2 102.9 103.7 103.7 104.2 104.9 105.3 105.6 106.2 106.6 107.2 107.9 108.5 109.8 110.2 110.7 110.6 88.8 92.3 96.4 99.0 100.0 101.9 104.1 107.0 108.3 111.1 104.4 104.0 104.6 103.3 105.7 106.4 106.5 109.3 106.8 108.5 108.6 109.2 110.7 110.5 111.2 112.0 112.4 114.0 115.1 88.8 92.3 96.3 98.9 100.0 102.0 104.2 107.0 108.2 111.1 104.7 104.1 104.7 103.4 105.8 106.5 106.5 109.3 106.6 108.3 108.5 109.1 110.6 110.4 111.3 112.2 112.6 114.1 115.3 97.6 98.3 99.8 98.6 100.0 100.2 99.3 100.0 99.7 100.7 100.9 99.3 99.2 97.6 99.3 99.7 99.4 101.4 98.7 100.3 99.9 100.0 100.9 100.1 100.4 101.4 102.5 103.2 103.8 97.6 98.3 99.7 98.6 100.0 100.3 99.4 100.0 99.6 100.7 101.1 99.5 99.4 97.7 99.4 99.8 99.4 101.3 98.6 100.1 99.8 100.0 100.8 100.0 100.5 101.6 102.7 103.3 104.0 Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 2005 �������������������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2011: I ��������������� � ��������������� II �������������� III �������������� IV 2012: I ��������������� � ��������������� II �������������� III �������������� IV 2013: I ��������������� � ��������������� II �������������� III �������������� IV 2014: I ��������������� � ��������������� II �������������� III �������������� IV 2015: I ��������������� � r ������������� II r * ��������� III 2.1 1.0 1.5 .8 3.3 3.3 .1 .7 .4 .6 –3.3 1.3 –1.0 3.2 .1 2.4 –1.1 –1.9 1.2 .6 1.3 3.4 –3.6 2.9 2.5 –2.4 –1.3 3.7 2.7 2.1 .9 1.6 .8 3.2 3.3 .2 .9 .0 .7 –3.3 1.5 –.8 3.0 .6 2.5 –.8 –2.2 –.1 .1 1.4 3.5 –3.5 2.8 3.1 –2.2 –1.1 3.5 2.2 3.8 3.2 2.1 –1.2 –4.1 3.2 2.1 2.9 2.0 3.0 –2.2 3.8 1.1 6.1 3.4 2.6 .6 .2 2.5 1.6 3.9 5.1 –1.7 5.7 5.5 2.6 .6 5.0 2.3 3.8 3.2 2.3 –1.3 –4.3 3.2 2.2 3.1 1.7 3.0 –2.5 4.5 1.1 5.8 3.9 2.7 1.0 .2 1.7 1.1 3.5 5.2 –1.2 5.4 5.5 2.6 .5 5.1 1.8 1.7 2.2 .6 –2.0 –7.1 –.1 2.0 2.2 1.6 2.4 1.2 2.5 2.2 2.8 3.3 .2 1.7 2.1 1.3 1.0 2.5 1.7 2.0 2.7 2.9 5.2 1.9 1.2 –.4 1.7 2.2 .7 –2.0 –7.2 –.1 2.0 2.2 1.7 2.3 .9 2.9 2.0 2.7 3.2 .2 1.8 2.4 1.8 1.1 2.1 1.7 2.3 2.5 2.3 4.9 1.6 1.5 –.3 3.6 3.9 4.4 2.6 1.0 1.9 2.2 2.8 1.2 2.6 6.9 –1.7 2.1 –4.8 9.7 2.6 .4 11.0 –8.6 6.3 .5 2.1 5.9 –.9 2.5 3.0 1.3 5.9 4.1 3.6 3.9 4.3 2.7 1.1 2.0 2.2 2.7 1.1 2.7 7.3 –2.0 2.4 –4.9 9.6 2.4 .3 10.7 –9.2 6.3 .9 2.3 5.5 –.8 3.2 3.4 1.5 5.6 4.0 0.2 .7 1.6 –1.2 1.4 .2 –1.0 .7 –.2 1.0 2.5 –6.1 –.5 –6.4 7.2 1.6 –1.3 8.2 –9.9 6.5 –1.8 .7 3.7 –3.2 1.3 3.9 4.4 2.8 2.4 0.2 .7 1.4 –1.1 1.4 .3 –.9 .6 –.4 1.1 2.9 –6.4 –.2 –6.6 7.2 1.4 –1.5 7.9 –10.5 6.5 –1.4 .9 3.4 –3.1 2.0 4.2 4.6 2.5 2.4 1 Output refers to real gross domestic product originating in the sector. 2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers’ contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed. 4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI–U) for recent quarters. The trend from 1978–2014 is based on the consumer price index research series (CPI–U–RS). 5 Current dollar gross domestic output divided by the output index. Note: Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. * Data based on GDP data released on November 24, 2015. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production and capacity utilization fell in October. INDEX, 2012 = 100* (RATIO SCALE) 120 INDEX, 2012 = 100* (RATIO SCALE) 130 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FINAL PRODUCTS 110 120 100 110 90 CONSUMER GOODS 80 100 120 MANUFACTURING TOTAL 110 BUSINESS EQUIPMENT DURABLE 1 DEFENSE AND SPACE EQUIPMENT 90 100 NONDURABLE 90 80 80 140 PERCENT* 86 CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE (TOTAL INDUSTRY) 84 UTILITIES AND MINING 130 82 120 80 MINING 110 78 76 100 74 72 UTILITIES 90 70 80 68 66 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1 SEE FOOTNOTE 1 TABLE BELOW *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Total industrial production 1 Period 2005 �������������������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2014: Oct ����������� ���������� Nov ����������� Dec 2015: Jan ���������� � ����������� Feb ���������� Mar ����������� Apr May r �������� June r ������� r �������� July r ��������� Aug Sept r �������� p ��������� Oct Percent change 2 Index, 2012=100 99.6 101.8 104.4 100.8 89.4 94.4 97.2 100.0 101.9 105.7 106.8 107.8 107.9 107.6 107.4 107.2 107.1 106.7 106.7 107.5 107.6 107.4 107.2 From preceding month ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� 0.2 .9 .1 –.3 –.2 –.2 –.2 –.4 .0 .8 .1 –.2 –.2 Chart 17 - Nov 2015 Industry production indexes, 2012=100 Capacity utilization rate (output as percent of capacity) 1 Manufacturing From year earlier 3.3 2.2 2.5 –3.4 –11.3 5.6 3.0 2.8 1.9 3.7 4.1 4.7 4.6 4.5 3.5 2.5 2.1 1.4 .9 1.3 1.4 .7 .3 Total 1 103.0 105.7 108.5 103.4 89.3 94.6 97.4 100.0 100.9 103.4 104.3 105.2 105.2 104.9 104.5 104.8 105.2 105.2 105.0 106.1 106.0 105.9 106.3 Durable 93.6 98.0 102.8 99.2 80.6 89.3 94.8 100.0 101.4 105.5 107.2 108.0 107.7 107.4 106.8 106.8 107.1 107.6 107.4 108.7 108.3 108.0 108.5 Nondurable 110.5 111.1 112.5 105.8 97.7 99.8 99.9 100.0 100.7 102.1 102.6 103.7 104.0 103.8 103.7 104.1 104.6 104.0 103.9 104.7 104.9 105.0 105.4 Other (non-NAICS) 1 148.2 146.6 138.2 129.3 111.5 105.6 102.8 100.0 96.7 91.3 88.3 87.7 86.5 86.0 86.1 86.5 87.1 88.0 88.6 89.9 89.3 88.8 88.3 Mining 84.8 86.8 87.5 88.4 83.8 88.1 93.1 100.0 106.5 118.0 120.8 121.2 124.1 122.1 120.1 119.5 117.9 115.3 115.3 116.5 116.9 114.2 112.5 Utilities 98.7 98.1 101.4 101.3 98.8 102.4 102.2 100.0 102.5 103.6 103.4 105.6 103.0 104.6 108.2 105.5 102.7 102.2 103.1 101.7 103.3 104.5 101.9 Total industry Total manufacturing 80.0 80.3 80.7 77.7 68.7 73.7 76.2 76.7 76.7 78.1 78.5 79.0 79.0 78.7 78.4 78.2 78.0 77.6 77.5 78.0 78.0 77.7 77.5 78.3 78.6 78.8 74.8 65.7 70.9 73.7 74.5 74.1 75.3 75.8 76.4 76.3 76.1 75.7 75.8 76.1 76.0 75.8 76.5 76.3 76.2 76.4 1 Total industry and total manufacturing series include manufacturing as defined in the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) plus those industries—logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory-publishing—that have traditionally been included in manufacturing. 2 Percent changes based on unrounded indexes. Note: Data based on NAICS except series as defined in footnote 1. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 Industrial Production— Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures [2012=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Products and nonindustrial supplies Materials Final products Consumer goods Period Total 2005 �������������������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2014: Oct ����������� ���������� Nov ����������� Dec 2015: Jan ���������� � ����������� Feb ���������� Mar ����������� Apr May r �������� June r ������� r �������� July r ��������� Aug Sept r �������� p ��������� Oct Nonindustrial supplies Total 102.6 105.2 107.7 103.8 93.2 96.3 98.4 100.0 100.6 103.2 103.7 105.1 104.6 104.6 104.1 104.1 103.9 103.6 103.5 104.8 105.1 105.1 105.0 111.1 111.6 112.1 106.4 99.0 100.2 101.4 100.0 101.5 103.7 103.5 105.3 105.1 105.3 105.3 105.6 105.5 104.9 105.0 106.8 107.0 107.2 107.1 Durable goods 119.5 118.7 120.0 105.1 86.3 93.8 98.0 100.0 105.5 112.8 113.5 116.8 116.2 115.9 113.8 115.4 117.1 118.7 116.7 123.4 120.4 120.8 121.4 Equipment Nondurable goods 108.6 109.4 109.7 106.5 102.5 101.8 102.2 100.0 100.6 101.5 101.0 102.5 102.3 102.7 103.2 103.2 102.6 101.6 102.1 102.8 103.8 103.9 103.5 Total 1 85.8 92.7 98.8 98.6 81.6 88.7 92.6 100.0 98.8 102.1 104.1 104.7 103.8 103.1 101.9 101.2 100.6 101.0 100.7 100.8 101.4 100.8 100.8 Business 87.2 95.2 99.9 97.9 80.0 86.4 91.0 100.0 99.6 104.3 106.6 107.4 106.3 106.2 105.7 105.8 106.0 106.9 106.7 106.7 107.4 106.9 107.1 Defense and space Total 77.0 76.5 91.2 98.4 94.0 101.1 98.2 100.0 96.9 93.8 94.1 94.1 94.4 93.6 94.1 93.8 93.1 93.0 92.9 92.4 93.2 92.3 92.3 111.8 113.9 114.5 108.3 92.9 96.2 97.8 100.0 101.9 104.3 105.4 105.9 105.8 105.9 105.8 105.0 105.5 105.3 105.6 105.6 105.8 105.6 106.1 Construction 127.5 130.7 129.6 117.6 90.4 93.7 95.9 100.0 102.9 106.9 108.6 108.9 110.3 110.1 109.1 107.5 108.4 108.8 109.3 109.6 109.9 108.5 110.3 Business 105.5 107.2 108.6 104.6 93.8 97.2 98.5 100.0 101.5 103.2 104.0 104.6 103.8 104.2 104.4 103.9 104.2 103.8 104.0 103.9 104.1 104.4 104.3 Total 1 93.0 94.9 98.2 95.7 85.0 92.1 96.0 100.0 103.1 108.4 110.0 110.7 111.4 110.7 110.8 110.7 110.3 109.7 109.7 110.4 110.2 109.8 109.4 Energy 85.9 86.9 88.7 89.4 87.3 91.0 94.1 100.0 105.7 114.8 117.5 118.1 119.4 118.7 119.2 118.6 117.3 115.5 115.8 115.7 116.7 115.7 113.4 1 Includes other items, not shown separately. [2012=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Durable manufactures Computer and electronic products Primary metals Period Total 2005 �������������������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2014: Oct ����������� ���������� Nov ����������� Dec 2015: Jan ���������� � ����������� Feb ���������� Mar ����������� Apr May r �������� June r ������� r �������� July r ��������� Aug Sept r �������� p ��������� Oct 99.1 101.9 104.0 104.2 77.5 95.1 102.1 100.0 102.8 105.4 106.2 104.6 106.1 101.9 101.2 99.1 98.7 98.9 102.7 102.4 99.8 98.5 100.1 Iron and steel products 96.7 101.0 102.6 109.2 70.4 91.8 100.1 100.0 101.9 104.6 107.8 105.2 105.8 96.7 92.9 88.2 90.3 91.1 99.3 98.0 93.5 93.0 95.4 Fabricated metal products 104.5 110.2 114.9 110.8 85.2 90.7 97.1 100.0 101.1 103.9 104.8 104.9 105.1 105.5 104.8 104.8 104.9 104.9 104.8 104.9 103.3 103.5 103.1 Nondurable manufactures Machinery Total 88.9 93.1 97.1 94.5 73.5 82.1 92.5 100.0 95.4 99.9 103.4 103.8 100.8 100.7 100.5 99.0 99.8 100.5 99.5 98.8 100.9 101.1 101.4 60.4 68.9 79.2 85.1 75.7 85.9 93.1 100.0 99.7 102.7 104.1 104.0 104.4 104.7 104.2 103.7 103.4 103.3 104.4 104.2 104.7 104.6 104.8 Selected high-technology 1 46.9 56.4 67.0 76.5 67.3 81.8 92.1 100.0 103.7 106.1 107.1 107.5 107.0 106.7 106.4 105.8 106.0 105.9 106.1 106.1 106.0 106.5 107.2 Transportation equipment Total 94.6 95.8 101.7 91.0 74.6 86.5 90.4 100.0 104.7 110.4 111.5 114.4 114.0 113.5 112.9 115.0 115.9 117.7 114.4 121.0 117.9 117.7 118.0 1 Computers and peripheral equipment, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 Motor vehicles and parts 108.8 107.1 106.3 85.1 62.3 82.7 90.4 100.0 106.5 117.7 118.3 124.1 123.1 122.5 120.2 124.1 126.2 129.3 123.5 136.7 129.6 130.3 131.2 Apparel 259.0 252.3 202.3 157.2 112.8 109.5 103.0 100.0 94.6 92.7 92.2 93.9 95.6 97.3 93.7 93.1 92.5 91.0 91.4 93.0 93.7 92.8 90.9 Printing and related support activities 129.9 128.5 131.1 122.7 102.8 102.7 101.0 100.0 100.5 101.6 101.5 102.2 102.9 102.3 102.2 103.1 103.1 102.2 102.6 103.1 104.2 103.9 103.8 Chemicals 109.3 111.9 117.5 108.6 98.1 101.3 101.3 100.0 98.2 100.0 101.3 102.1 102.7 102.7 102.9 102.8 103.0 102.4 103.7 104.0 102.8 103.6 104.6 Food 100.5 101.3 101.9 100.6 100.0 100.4 100.2 100.0 101.7 103.0 102.7 104.4 104.5 104.5 104.3 105.2 105.1 104.6 104.4 105.0 106.1 106.6 106.2 New Construction [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Private Period 2005 �������������������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2014: Oct ����������� ���������� Nov ����������� Dec 2015: Jan ���������� � ����������� Feb ���������� Mar ����������� Apr May ��������� � June �������� � ���������� July r ��������� Aug Sept r �������� p ��������� Oct Total new construction expenditures Residential Total 1,104.1 1,167.2 1,152.4 1,068.4 904.9 806.0 788.3 861.2 918.3 962.1 979.6 976.9 989.1 990.1 993.5 1,006.4 1,044.6 1,068.4 1,074.3 1,080.4 1,089.8 1,096.6 1,107.4 New housing Total 1 870.0 911.8 863.3 759.7 590.0 502.1 501.9 581.9 647.7 686.4 692.1 699.3 707.6 716.2 720.8 729.7 757.2 776.5 773.5 781.2 788.7 795.8 802.4 Federal and State and local Nonresidential 611.9 613.7 493.2 350.3 245.9 238.8 244.1 280.6 335.4 338.7 342.1 347.2 354.8 358.9 360.6 357.5 366.8 373.1 376.1 382.1 388.6 395.0 399.0 Total 480.8 468.8 354.1 230.1 133.9 127.3 123.2 154.5 202.3 235.4 248.7 253.1 259.9 261.6 260.7 256.2 259.9 263.2 265.9 267.6 274.2 280.2 284.6 Lodging 258.1 298.1 370.0 409.4 344.1 263.3 257.8 301.4 312.3 347.7 350.0 352.2 352.7 357.2 360.2 372.2 390.4 403.4 397.4 399.2 400.1 400.8 403.4 Commercial (including farm) Office 12.7 17.6 27.5 35.4 25.4 11.2 8.4 10.2 13.0 15.7 17.0 16.9 16.9 17.0 17.6 18.0 19.2 20.8 22.3 21.1 22.2 22.1 22.1 37.3 45.7 53.8 55.5 37.3 24.4 23.7 27.4 30.1 38.4 42.5 41.4 42.7 42.0 41.8 44.6 46.3 48.2 49.3 49.5 49.6 49.5 49.6 Manufacturing 66.6 73.4 85.9 82.7 51.1 37.2 39.2 44.3 50.9 60.8 66.1 66.8 69.0 64.0 62.0 62.2 65.3 66.3 62.6 63.3 63.7 64.4 63.7 Other 2 28.4 32.3 40.2 53.6 57.4 40.6 39.8 46.8 49.9 57.2 64.1 64.9 65.7 73.6 76.8 81.0 84.0 89.6 86.2 86.3 86.2 87.5 90.1 113.1 129.1 162.6 182.3 173.0 149.9 146.7 172.6 166.1 175.6 160.3 162.2 158.4 160.7 162.1 166.4 175.6 178.4 177.0 178.9 178.4 177.4 177.9 New houses sold New houses for sale at end of period 3 234.2 255.4 289.1 308.7 314.9 304.0 286.4 279.3 270.7 275.7 287.4 277.5 281.6 273.9 272.6 276.6 287.4 292.0 300.8 299.1 301.1 300.8 304.9 1 Includes residential improvements, not shown separately. 2 Includes health care, educational, communication, and power, among other categories not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census). New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates [Thousands of units or houses, except as noted] New housing units authorized 2 New housing units started Type of structure Period Total 2005 �������������������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2,068.3 1,800.9 1,355.0 905.5 554.0 586.9 608.8 780.6 924.9 1,003.3 1 unit 1,715.8 1,465.4 1,046.0 622.0 445.1 471.2 430.6 535.3 617.6 647.9 Type of structure 2–4 units 1 41.1 42.7 31.7 17.5 11.6 11.4 10.9 11.4 13.6 13.7 5 units or more Total 311.4 292.8 277.3 266.0 97.3 104.3 167.3 233.9 293.7 341.7 2,155.3 1,838.9 1,398.4 905.4 583.0 604.6 624.1 829.7 990.8 1,052.1 1 unit 1,682.0 1,378.2 979.9 575.6 441.1 447.3 418.5 518.7 620.8 640.3 2–4 units 5 units or more New housing units completed Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 4 84.0 76.6 59.6 34.4 20.7 22.0 21.6 25.9 29.0 29.9 389.3 384.1 359.0 295.4 121.1 135.3 184.0 285.1 341.1 382.0 1,931.4 1,979.4 1,502.8 1,119.7 794.4 651.7 584.9 649.2 764.4 883.8 1,283 1,051 776 485 375 323 306 368 429 437 511 536 497 353 234 190 151 150 187 212 9.9 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.6 10.2 9.5 8.7 8.3 7.6 32 28 24 27 28 26 32 34 34 28 30 37 34 436 388 368 375 444 370 442 535 611 422 432 374 412 917 867 939 975 865 806 999 1,010 959 995 959 1,027 965 472 449 495 521 545 485 508 513 469 500 513 447 495 208 210 212 208 204 205 207 210 217 216 216 223 226 �������������������� �������������������� 7.0 �������������������� �������������������� 7.1 �������������������� �������������������� 6.8 �������������������� �������������������� 7.3 �������������������� Seasonally adjusted annual rates 2014: Oct ����������� ���������� Nov ����������� Dec 2015: Jan ���������� � ����������� Feb ���������� Mar ����������� Apr May ��������� � June �������� � r �������� July r ��������� Aug Sept r �������� p ��������� Oct 1,079 1,007 1,080 1,080 900 954 1,190 1,072 1,211 1,152 1,116 1,191 1,060 705 670 724 706 600 623 735 697 687 759 734 740 722 ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� 357 328 336 368 292 311 436 366 510 382 376 439 327 1,120 1,079 1,077 1,059 1,098 1,038 1,140 1,250 1,337 1,130 1,161 1,105 1,161 652 663 685 657 626 642 666 681 692 680 699 694 715 1 Monthly data do not meet publication standards because tests for identifiable and stable seasonality do not meet reliability standards. 2 Based on approximately 20,100 permit-issuing places beginning with 2014 and 19,300 beginning with 2004. Using the 2004 universe, the total for 2014 is 1,046.4. 3 Seasonally adjusted. 4 Quarterly data are three-month averages. Annual data are averages of quarterly data. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census). 19 Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade In September, according to current estimates, manufacturing and trade sales rose 0.1 percent, while inventories rose $4.1 billion. According to advance estimates, retail sales were roughly unchanged in October. Retail and food services sales rose 0.1 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 1,900 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 600 1,800 550 RETAIL INVENTORIES MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES 1,700 500 1,600 RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES SALES 450 1,500 400 1,400 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE SALES 350 RETAIL SALES 1,300 300 1,200 RATIO* 1.70 INVENTORY/SALES RATIO 1,100 1.60 1.50 RETAIL 1,000 1.40 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE 1.30 1.20 900 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 2014 2015 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars, except ratios; seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Manufacturing and trade 1 Period Sales 2 Inventories 3 Inventory/sales ratio 4 Wholesale Sales 2 Inventories 3 Retail Inventory/sales ratio 4 2005 �������������������� 1,005,821 1,313,394 1.27 303,208 368,070 1.17 2006 �������������������� 1,069,032 1,407,845 1.28 328,438 398,969 1.17 2007 �������������������� 1,128,176 1,486,057 1.28 351,956 424,318 1.17 2008 �������������������� 1,160,303 1,462,775 1.31 376,603 443,905 1.19 2009 �������������������� 987,564 1,325,989 1.38 318,068 394,417 1.28 2010 �������������������� 1,087,061 1,442,657 1.27 359,869 437,273 1.14 2011 �������������������� 1,204,161 1,555,262 1.26 405,214 480,931 1.14 2012 �������������������� 1,267,342 1,643,981 1.27 430,430 512,794 1.16 2013 �������������������� 1,303,200 1,715,907 1.29 443,551 534,519 1.18 2014 �������������������� 1,348,311 1,781,446 1.31 462,592 570,198 1.20 r �������� 2014: Sept 1,358,265 1,773,233 1.31 466,332 561,881 1.20 r ���������� Oct 1,354,829 1,778,433 1.31 466,173 565,118 1.21 ���������� Nov 1,352,373 1,780,173 1.32 465,997 569,479 1.22 ����������� Dec 1,339,038 1,781,446 1.33 461,666 570,198 1.24 2015: Jan ���������� � 1,308,276 1,778,991 1.36 445,024 572,469 1.29 ����������� Feb 1,303,701 1,783,741 1.37 442,459 573,668 1.30 ���������� Mar 1,311,121 1,785,855 1.36 441,024 574,661 1.30 ����������� Apr 1,318,016 1,792,837 1.36 448,458 576,998 1.29 May ��������� � 1,322,962 1,798,172 1.36 449,347 580,710 1.29 June �������� � 1,327,245 1,809,917 1.36 450,927 584,986 1.30 ���������� July 1,328,203 1,810,381 1.36 449,741 583,425 1.30 r ��������� Aug 1,319,921 1,812,451 1.37 445,911 585,198 1.31 p ������� Sept 1,320,613 1,816,552 1.38 448,004 588,120 1.31 p ��������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� Oct 1 See page 21 for manufacturing. 2 Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. 3 Seasonally adjusted, end of period. 4 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census). 20 Sales 2 Inventories 3 Chart 20 - Nov 2015 Retail and food Inventory/sales services sales 2 4 ratio 307,440 471,658 1.51 322,631 486,439 1.49 332,932 500,625 1.49 328,026 477,449 1.52 301,204 429,453 1.47 318,405 455,051 1.39 342,166 470,989 1.35 358,853 505,169 1.38 372,419 543,511 1.41 386,024 558,321 1.43 388,478 555,896 1.43 390,214 557,744 1.43 391,741 554,624 1.42 387,188 558,321 1.44 383,889 558,296 1.45 381,432 561,001 1.47 387,665 562,821 1.45 387,235 566,270 1.46 392,268 567,490 1.45 391,955 573,180 1.46 395,100 576,927 1.46 394,944 579,731 1.47 r 394950 584,283 1.48 394,934 ����������������������� ����������������������� 340,479 357,863 369,978 366,063 338,902 357,362 383,482 402,594 417,645 434,037 437,428 439,829 441,444 437,590 434,225 431,921 438,572 438,717 443,913 443,734 447,097 447,133 r 447031 447,255 Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders In October, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories fell, while new and unfilled orders rose. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 580 540 SHIPMENTS 500 460 420 TOTAL 380 340 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 700 660 INVENTORIES 620 580 TOTAL 540 500 460 DURABLE GOODS 420 NONDURABLE GOODS 300 380 340 260 300 220 260 DURABLE GOODS 180 NONDURABLE GOODS 220 140 180 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 580 540 NEW ORDERS 500 460 420 TOTAL 380 140 RATIO* 1.60 340 INVENTORY/SHIPMENTS RATIO 1.50 300 DURABLE GOODS 260 1.40 220 1.30 180 1.20 1.10 140 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 2014 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturers’ shipments 1 Manufacturers’ inventories 2 Manufacturers’ new orders 1 Chart 21- Nov 2015 Durable goods Period Total Durable goods 2015 Nondurable goods Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, nondefense Manufacturers’ unfilled orders 2 Manufacturers’ inventory/ shipments ratio 3 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted 2005 �������������������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2014: Oct ����������� ���������� Nov ����������� Dec 2015: Jan ���������� � ����������� Feb ���������� Mar ����������� Apr May ��������� � June �������� � ���������� July ���������� Aug Sept r �������� p ��������� Oct 395,173 417,963 443,288 455,675 368,292 408,787 456,781 478,059 487,231 499,695 498,442 494,635 490,184 479,363 479,810 482,432 482,323 481,347 484,363 483,362 479,066 477,659 475,173 202,070 213,516 223,919 218,328 171,886 190,900 207,780 221,518 225,593 236,532 239,888 237,558 242,029 239,765 237,047 240,599 239,866 238,793 240,911 243,200 241,985 242,610 240,079 193,103 204,447 219,369 237,347 196,406 217,887 249,001 256,542 261,638 263,162 258,554 257,077 248,155 239,598 242,763 241,833 242,457 242,554 243,452 240,162 237,081 235,049 235,094 473,666 522,437 561,114 541,421 502,119 550,333 603,342 626,018 637,877 652,927 655,571 656,070 652,927 648,226 649,072 648,373 649,569 649,972 651,751 650,029 647,522 644,149 643,577 283,663 317,440 334,597 330,120 295,112 321,953 353,150 366,644 375,526 398,295 394,605 396,418 398,295 399,540 400,588 400,745 401,392 400,446 402,145 401,297 400,531 398,047 397,034 190,003 204,997 226,517 211,301 207,007 228,380 250,192 259,374 262,351 254,632 260,966 259,652 254,632 248,686 248,484 247,628 248,177 249,526 249,606 248,732 246,991 246,102 246,543 397,015 424,150 449,779 453,919 349,269 406,314 456,739 478,182 487,654 504,584 496,308 493,017 474,894 472,969 468,026 478,504 475,026 469,833 480,063 481,206 471,041 467,064 473,873 203,913 219,703 230,410 216,572 152,863 188,426 207,738 221,640 226,016 241,422 237,754 235,940 226,739 233,371 225,263 236,671 232,569 227,279 236,611 241,044 233,960 232,015 238,779 67,867 74,127 79,817 73,134 48,358 61,656 70,941 78,887 80,976 86,432 80,128 81,725 73,440 80,376 75,521 81,074 79,256 73,608 81,504 81,970 78,181 73,509 83,180 654,688 798,211 947,045 996,124 825,118 869,235 950,208 1,021,440 1,087,229 1,210,631 1,216,967 1,220,658 1,210,631 1,209,242 1,202,563 1,203,506 1,200,999 1,194,695 1,195,217 1,197,457 1,194,184 1,188,439 1,191,794 1.17 1.20 1.22 1.27 1.39 1.28 1.28 1.29 1.30 1.31 1.32 1.33 1.33 1.35 1.35 1.34 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.34 1.35 1.35 1.35 1 Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. Shipments are the same as sales. 2 Seasonally adjusted, end of period. 3 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. Note: Manufacturers’ nondurable new orders (not shown) are the same as nondurable shipments. Also, there are no unfilled nondurable orders; data shown for total unfilled orders are durable unfilled orders. Total and durable shipments and inventories include data on semiconductors; new and unfilled orders do not. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census). 21 PRICES Producer Prices The producer price index for final demand fell 0.4 percent in October. Prices for final demand goods fell 0.4 percent and prices for final demand services fell 0.3 percent. INDEX, NOV. 2009=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, NOV. 2009=100 (RATIO SCALE) 125 125 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED FINAL DEMAND 120 120 FINAL DEMAND GOODS 115 115 FINAL DEMAND 110 110 FINAL DEMAND SERVICES 105 105 100 100 95 95 2009 2010 2011 2013 2012 2014 2015 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [November 2009=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Final demand goods Period Rel. imp. 4 ����������� 2005 �������������������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2014: Oct ����������� ���������� Nov ����������� Dec 2015: Jan ���������� � ����������� Feb ���������� Mar ����������� Apr May ��������� � June r ������� ���������� July ���������� Aug Sept ��������� ����������� Oct Total final demand 1 100.0 ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� 101.8 105.7 107.7 109.1 110.9 111.4 111.1 110.8 110.0 109.6 109.6 109.5 110.1 110.5 110.5 110.5 109.9 109.5 Final demand services Total Foods 2 Energy Less food and energy Total Trade 3 Transportation and warehousing Other 34.673 ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� 102.8 109.9 111.7 112.6 114.0 113.9 113.0 111.6 109.5 109.1 109.2 108.5 110.1 110.7 110.6 109.9 108.6 108.2 5.797 ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� 103.7 112.5 115.9 117.8 121.6 122.5 122.6 122.5 121.4 119.5 118.3 117.1 118.7 119.3 118.9 119.3 118.3 117.4 6.309 ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� 107.2 126.2 126.3 125.3 124.2 121.5 117.0 109.3 98.3 98.3 99.5 96.9 103.2 104.8 104.6 101.2 95.2 95.2 22.567 ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� 101.4 104.9 106.8 107.9 109.5 109.8 109.7 109.7 109.8 109.8 109.8 109.8 110.0 110.4 110.3 110.1 110.1 109.8 63.306 ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� 101.3 103.4 105.4 107.1 109.0 109.8 109.8 110.1 110.0 109.5 109.6 109.8 109.7 110.1 110.2 110.6 110.2 109.9 20.034 ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� 101.7 104.0 106.7 108.2 110.2 111.9 111.5 112.1 112.7 110.9 111.1 111.0 111.1 111.5 111.4 112.4 112.0 111.2 5.108 ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� 103.2 110.0 114.2 115.3 117.7 117.9 118.3 118.3 117.1 116.0 115.7 115.1 115.3 115.7 115.9 115.1 114.3 114.4 38.164 ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� 100.9 102.5 103.9 105.8 107.5 107.9 108.0 108.2 108.0 108.1 108.2 108.6 108.5 108.8 109.0 109.2 108.9 108.8 Processed goods Final for intermediate demand demand (1982=100) less foods, energy, Less and food trade Total and (Aug. 2013 energy =100) 2 67.860 ���������������� ���������������� ���������������� ���������������� ���������������� ���������������� ���������������� ���������������� ���������������� 101.5 101.8 101.9 102.0 101.8 101.8 101.8 102.0 102.0 102.3 102.4 102.5 102.2 102.1 100.0 154.0 164.0 170.7 188.3 172.5 183.4 199.9 200.7 200.8 201.9 201.0 198.9 195.4 190.7 189.7 189.3 187.8 189.7 190.8 190.3 189.2 186.4 185.7 73.245 154.6 163.8 168.4 180.9 173.4 180.8 192.0 192.6 193.8 195.2 195.7 194.8 193.6 191.6 191.0 190.5 190.2 190.3 190.4 189.9 189.5 188.3 187.9 Unprocessed goods2015 Chart 22 - Nov for intermediate demand (1982=100) Services for intermediNonfood ate materials demand Total less energy 100.0 182.2 184.8 207.1 251.8 175.2 212.2 249.4 241.4 246.7 249.3 237.7 234.7 222.4 201.7 194.2 192.8 193.9 200.4 201.4 196.1 187.5 181.6 181.6 22.814 202.4 244.5 282.6 324.4 248.4 329.1 390.4 369.6 351.2 345.7 337.1 331.8 329.8 326.6 309.4 304.5 303.9 304.3 304.2 303.0 288.6 285.3 281.6 100.0 ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� 101.1 103.2 105.3 107.2 108.9 109.5 109.5 109.7 109.8 109.6 109.9 110.4 110.3 110.4 110.4 111.2 110.4 110.0 1 Includes final demand construction, not shown separately. 2 Does not include food and beverages for immediate consumption, which are defined as the service of preparing meals, snacks, and beverages to customer order for immediate consumption. 3 Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers. 4 Relative importance, December 2014. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 22 Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers In October, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.2 percent; it was unchanged before seasonal adjustment. The index rose 0.2 percent from its year earlier level. INDEX, 1982-84 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) 250 INDEX, 1982-84 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) 250 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 240 240 CONSUMER PRICES—ALL ITEMS 230 230 220 220 210 210 200 200 190 190 180 180 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 2015 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1982–84=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] All items Period Rel. imp. 4 ����������� 2005 �������������������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2014: Oct r ���������� r ��������� Nov r ��������� Dec 2015: Jan r ��������� r ��������� Feb r �������� Mar r ��������� Apr May r �������� June r ������� r �������� July r ��������� Aug Sept r �������� ����������� Oct Not seasonally Seasonally adjusted adjusted (NSA) 100.0 195.3 201.6 207.342 215.303 214.537 218.056 224.939 229.594 232.957 236.736 237.433 236.151 234.812 233.707 234.722 236.119 236.599 237.805 238.638 238.654 238.316 237.945 237.838 ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� 237.753 237.067 236.284 234.677 235.186 235.740 235.982 237.031 237.786 238.099 237.931 237.566 238.042 All items less food and energy Total 1 78.162 200.9 205.9 210.729 215.572 219.235 221.337 225.008 229.755 233.806 237.897 239.120 239.304 239.445 239.871 240.247 240.793 241.409 241.760 242.193 242.513 242.693 243.206 243.698 Shelter 33.132 224.4 232.1 240.611 246.666 249.354 248.396 251.646 257.083 263.056 270.513 272.833 273.501 274.016 274.759 275.431 276.163 276.925 277.468 278.316 279.305 279.908 280.837 281.544 Medical care 2 7.745 323.2 336.2 351.054 364.065 375.613 388.436 400.258 414.924 425.134 435.292 437.686 439.419 441.370 441.362 441.385 442.735 445.800 446.781 446.051 446.649 446.812 447.593 450.744 Apparel 3.422 119.5 119.5 118.998 118.907 120.078 119.503 122.111 126.265 127.411 127.514 127.567 126.706 125.643 125.965 126.336 126.996 126.563 125.964 125.776 126.151 126.545 126.175 125.173 Food New vehicles 3.505 137.9 137.6 136.254 134.194 135.623 138.005 141.883 144.232 145.783 146.275 146.752 146.720 146.655 146.453 146.735 147.046 147.236 147.505 147.667 147.381 147.347 147.247 146.962 Energy Total 1 At home Away from home 14.221 190.7 195.2 202.916 214.106 217.955 219.625 227.842 233.777 237.037 242.725 245.125 245.632 246.237 246.132 246.512 246.003 245.998 246.014 246.734 247.149 247.729 248.676 249.027 8.349 189.8 193.1 201.245 214.125 215.124 215.836 226.201 231.774 233.869 239.456 242.053 242.309 242.893 242.446 242.626 241.519 241.100 240.730 241.584 242.237 242.843 243.506 243.737 5.872 193.4 199.4 206.659 215.769 223.272 226.114 231.401 237.986 243.068 248.981 251.100 251.987 252.628 253.037 253.719 254.108 254.727 255.322 255.846 255.905 256.449 257.830 258.363 Total 1, 2 7.617 177.1 196.9 207.723 236.666 193.126 211.449 243.909 246.080 244.409 243.583 240.863 230.897 220.070 198.727 200.622 202.910 200.372 209.039 212.668 212.790 208.521 198.661 199.238 Chart 23 - Nov 2015 Gasoline C-CPI-U (NSA) 3 3.574 ������������������� 194.7 113.7 219.9 117.0 237.959 119.957 277.457 124.433 201.555 123.850 238.594 125.615 301.694 129.453 311.470 131.976 302.577 ������������������� 290.889 ������������������� 286.208 135.941 265.500 135.183 240.998 134.311 195.938 133.382 200.557 134.035 208.324 134.972 204.717 135.237 225.935 136.026 233.504 136.508 235.596 136.469 226.047 136.190 205.758 135.833 206.642 135.706 1 Includes other items not shown separately. 2 Commodities and services. 3 Chained consumer price index (C-CPI-U) reflects the effect of substitution that consumers make across item categories in response to changes in relative prices. 4 Relative importance, September 2015. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 23 Changes in Producer Prices [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Processed goods Unprocessed goods Change from year earlier Final for intermediate for intermediate (NSA) demand demand demand Services less for foods, intermeTransporLess Nonfood energy, diate tation food Total Final Final materials demand and Trade and Other Total and Total final demand demand less trade wareenergy demand goods services energy housing Final demand goods Period Total final demand 1 Total Foods Energy Final demand services Less food and energy Total Change, December to December, NSA 2005 �������������������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� ����������� ����������� ����������� ����������� ����������� 2.8 3.2 1.9 1.2 .9 ���������� ���������� ���������� ���������� ���������� 4.7 4.7 1.4 .8 –1.2 ���������� ���������� ���������� ���������� ���������� 5.3 5.7 4.1 –.8 4.4 ���������� ���������� ���������� ���������� ���������� 12.7 9.2 –1.3 .9 –13.2 ����������� ����������� ����������� ����������� ����������� 2.4 3.1 1.4 1.3 1.1 ���������� ���������� ���������� ���������� ���������� 1.7 2.3 2.2 1.3 2.1 ���������� ���������� ���������� ���������� ���������� 2.1 2.3 3.8 –.4 4.0 ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� 4.3 6.7 2.7 2.0 .8 ���������� ���������� ���������� ���������� ���������� 1.3 1.8 1.4 2.0 1.4 ����������� ����������� ����������� ����������� ����������� ����������� ����������� ����������� ����������� 1.3 8.6 2.8 7.1 –2.3 2.9 6.4 5.7 .4 .1 –2.6 4.8 4.5 3.3 2.9 –.1 4.7 3.8 .6 .7 –.1 21.1 –4.7 19.8 –24.6 13.3 16.1 6.6 1.4 –1.9 –8.7 5.2 17.0 15.6 –24.1 28.9 27.6 2.4 –1.6 –5.6 –5.3 �������������� �������������� �������������� �������������� �������������� 1.4 2.0 2.9 1.0 1.8 ����������� ����������� ����������� ����������� ����������� ����������� 3.8 1.9 1.3 1.6 ����������� ����������� ����������� ����������� ����������� ����������� 6.9 1.6 .8 1.2 ������������ ������������ ������������ ������������ ������������ ������������ 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.8 0.0 .1 .1 –.2 .0 .0 .2 .0 .3 .1 .1 –.3 –.1 –1.0 –1.0 –1.8 –2.4 –.5 –.2 –.8 1.0 .6 –.3 –.6 –1.5 –.4 –0.3 –.5 –.6 –1.0 –.3 –.3 –.2 .1 .1 –.3 –.2 –.6 –.2 –3.3 –1.3 –5.2 –9.3 –3.7 –.7 .6 3.4 .5 –2.6 –4.4 –3.1 .0 –2.5 –1.6 –.6 –1.0 –5.3 –1.6 –.2 .1 .0 –.4 –4.8 –1.1 –1.3 0.4 .0 .2 .1 –.2 .3 .5 –.1 .1 .0 .7 –.7 –.4 1.5 1.3 .9 .0 –.5 –.9 –1.1 –.8 –.5 –.8 –.8 –1.1 –1.6 1.0 .4 –1.2 –3.6 –4.1 –4.5 –5.5 –4.0 –3.7 –3.7 –4.1 –5.1 –4.8 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.0 1.2 .9 1.2 .8 1.1 .6 1.0 1.0 .1 Change, month to month 2014: Oct ����������� ���������� Nov ����������� Dec 2015: Jan ���������� � ����������� Feb ���������� Mar ����������� Apr May ��������� � June r ������� r �������� July ���������� Aug Sept ��������� ����������� Oct 0.3 –.3 –.3 –.7 –.4 .0 –.1 .5 .4 .0 .0 –.5 –.4 –0.4 –.8 –1.2 –1.9 –.4 .1 –.6 1.5 .5 –.1 –.6 –1.2 –.4 0.6 .1 –.1 –.9 –1.6 –1.0 –1.0 1.4 .5 –.3 .3 –.8 –.8 –2.6 –3.7 –6.6 –10.1 .0 1.2 –2.6 6.5 1.6 –.2 –3.3 –5.9 .0 –0.1 –.1 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .2 .4 –.1 –.2 .0 –.3 0.6 .0 .3 –.1 –.5 .1 .2 –.1 .4 .1 .4 –.4 –.3 2.0 –.4 .5 .5 –1.6 .2 –.1 .1 .4 –.1 .9 –.4 –.7 –0.4 .3 .0 –1.0 –.9 –.3 –.5 .2 .3 .2 –.7 –.7 .1 0.0 .1 .2 –.2 .1 .1 .4 –.1 .3 .2 .2 –.3 –.1 1 Includes final demand construction, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] All items less food and energy Period All items 1 Total 1 Shelter Medical care 2 Apparel Food New vehicles Total 1 At home Addendum: All items, percent change (annual rate) Energy Away from home Total 1, 2 Gasoline C-CPI-U (NSA) 3 From previous quarter 4 From 3 months earlier From 6 months earlier From year earlier (NSA) Change, December to December, NSA 2005 �������������������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 3.4 2.5 4.1 .1 2.7 1.5 3.0 1.7 1.5 .8 2.2 2.6 2.4 1.8 1.8 .8 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.6 2.6 4.2 3.1 1.9 .3 .4 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.9 4.3 3.6 5.2 2.6 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.2 2.0 3.0 –1.1 .9 –.3 –1.0 1.9 –1.1 4.6 1.8 .6 –2.0 –0.4 –.9 –.3 –3.2 4.9 –.2 3.2 1.6 .4 .5 2.3 2.1 4.9 5.9 –.5 1.5 4.7 1.8 1.1 3.4 1.7 1.4 5.6 6.6 –2.4 1.7 6.0 1.3 .4 3.7 3.2 3.2 4.0 5.0 1.9 1.3 2.9 2.5 2.1 3.0 17.1 2.9 17.4 –21.3 18.2 7.7 6.6 .5 .5 –10.6 16.1 6.4 29.6 –43.1 53.5 13.8 9.9 1.7 –1.0 –21.0 2.9 2.3 3.7 .2 2.5 1.3 2.9 1.5 1.3 r .6 ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� �������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� 3.4 3.2 2.8 3.8 –.4 1.6 3.2 2.1 1.5 1.6 0.2 .1 .2 –.2 .1 –.5 –.2 –.2 .4 .3 .3 .3 .1 0.2 .4 .3 .2 .3 .2 .2 .2 .2 .0 .2 .5 .2 –1.2 –4.1 –4.7 –9.7 1.0 1.1 –1.3 4.3 1.7 .1 –2.0 –4.7 .3 –2.0 –7.2 –9.2 –18.7 2.4 3.9 –1.7 10.4 3.4 .9 –4.1 –9.0 .4 –0.2 –.6 r –.6 –.7 .5 .7 .2 .6 .4 .0 –.2 –.3 –.1 ������������� ������������� –.9 ������������� ������������� –3.1 ������������� ������������� 3.0 ������������� ������������� 1.6 ������������� 0.3 –.6 –2.2 –5.1 –3.1 –.9 2.2 3.2 3.5 3.6 1.5 –.4 –.1 1.3 .1 –.9 –2.4 –1.9 –1.6 –1.5 .0 1.3 2.9 2.3 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.3 .8 –.1 .0 –.1 –.2 .0 .1 .2 .2 .0 .2 Change, month to month 2014: Oct ����������� ���������� Nov ����������� Dec 2015: Jan ���������� � ����������� Feb ���������� Mar ����������� Apr May ��������� � June �������� � ���������� July ���������� Aug Sept ��������� ����������� Oct 0.1 –.3 –.3 –.7 .2 .2 .1 .4 .3 .1 –.1 –.2 .2 0.2 .1 .1 .2 .2 .2 .3 .1 .2 .1 .1 .2 .2 0.2 .2 .2 .3 .2 .3 .3 .2 .3 .4 .2 .3 .3 0.2 .4 .4 .0 .0 .3 .7 .2 –.2 .1 .0 .2 .7 –0.3 –.7 –.8 .3 .3 .5 –.3 –.5 –.1 .3 .3 –.3 –.8 0.1 .0 .0 –.1 .2 .2 .1 .2 .1 –.2 .0 –.1 –.2 0.2 .2 .2 .0 .2 –.2 .0 .0 .3 .2 .2 .4 .1 1 Includes other items not shown separately. 2 Commodities and services. 3 Chained consumer price index (C-CPI-U) reflects the effect of substitution that consumers make across item categories in response to changes in relative prices. 4 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 24 Prices Received and Paid by Farmers In October, prices received by farmers fell 9.2 percent and prices paid by farmers were unchanged. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) INDEX, 2011=100 (RATIO SCALE) 130 INDEX, 2011=100 (RATIO SCALE) 130 120 120 110 110 100 100 PRICES PAID 90 90 80 80 PRICES RECEIVED 70 70 60 60 1 RATIO1 140 RATIO 140 RATIO 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2012 2015 2014 1RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [2011=100; not seasonally adjusted] Prices received by farmers 1 Period 2005 ��������������������������������������������������� 2006 ��������������������������������������������������� 2007 ��������������������������������������������������� 2008 ��������������������������������������������������� 2009 ��������������������������������������������������� 2010 ��������������������������������������������������� 2011 ��������������������������������������������������� 2012 ��������������������������������������������������� 2013 ��������������������������������������������������� 2014 ��������������������������������������������������� 2014: Oct ������������������������������������������ ����������������������������������������� Nov ������������������������������������������ Dec 2015: Jan ����������������������������������������� � ������������������������������������������ Feb ����������������������������������������� Mar r ���������������������������������������� Apr May ���������������������������������������� � June r �������������������������������������� ����������������������������������������� July ����������������������������������������� Aug Sept ���������������������������������������� ������������������������������������������ Oct Agricultural production Crop production 71 71 84 92 81 82 100 105 107 108 100 102 101 97 99 102 103 107 105 99 102 98 89 All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates (PPITW) 2 Livestock production 63 68 81 96 86 79 100 107 106 92 81 82 83 82 84 86 89 90 88 86 88 87 80 Chart 25 - Nov 2015 Prices paid by farmers 78 73 86 86 74 86 100 102 109 129 135 134 127 120 114 117 116 122 121 115 117 109 104 70 74 79 90 87 90 100 104 106 111 112 112 111 110 110 110 110 110 110 109 108 107 107 Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates (PITW) 67 72 77 89 86 89 100 105 107 113 113 113 112 111 110 111 110 110 110 110 109 107 107 Ratio of prices received by farmers to PPITW 3 Production items 65 69 75 88 85 88 100 105 107 114 114 114 114 111 111 111 111 111 111 110 109 107 107 101 96 106 102 93 92 100 100 100 97 89 91 91 88 90 93 94 97 95 91 94 92 83 1 Annual indexes for 2011 forward reflect revised methodology. See Agricultural Price Program Update, January 2015 for details. 2 Includes items not shown separately. 3 Annual data are averages of monthly ratios. Note: These indexes are also available on a 1910-14=100 basis, as required by statute. Source: Department of Agriculture (National Agricultural Statistics Service). 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock and Debt Measures In October, M2 rose. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 13,200 12,400 11,600 10,800 10,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 13,200 12,400 11,600 10,800 10,000 9,200 9,200 8,400 8,400 M2 7,600 7,600 6,800 6,800 6,000 6,000 5,200 5,200 4,400 4,400 3,600 3,600 3,200 3,200 2,800 2,800 2,400 2,400 M1 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 *AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 2015 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures, except debt end-of-period basis; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Chart 26 - Nov 2015 M1 Period 2005: Dec ����������������������������������������� � 2006: Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2007: Dec ����������������������������������������� � 2008: Dec ����������������������������������������� � 2009: Dec ����������������������������������������� � 2010: Dec ����������������������������������������� � 2011: Dec ����������������������������������������� � 2012: Dec ����������������������������������������� � 2013: Dec ����������������������������������������� � 2014: Dec ����������������������������������������� � 2014: Oct ������������������������������������������ ����������������������������������������� Nov ������������������������������������������ Dec 2015: Jan ����������������������������������������� � ������������������������������������������ Feb ����������������������������������������� Mar ������������������������������������������ Apr May ���������������������������������������� � June ��������������������������������������� � ����������������������������������������� July ����������������������������������������� Aug Sept r ��������������������������������������� ������������������������������������������ Oct M2 Debt Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers checks, and other checkable deposits M1 plus savings deposits, retail MMMF balances, and small time deposits 1 Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors 2 1,374.8 1,368.3 1,376.6 1,607.1 1,698.4 1,841.8 2,168.2 2,457.7 2,654.5 2,918.3 2,867.6 2,883.5 2,918.3 2,935.8 2,997.8 2,992.8 3,000.6 2,985.7 3,009.6 3,042.3 3,060.3 3,051.0 3,035.7 6,650.8 7,042.8 7,448.8 8,174.0 8,480.1 8,781.4 9,634.6 10,422.5 10,984.0 11,632.8 11,524.9 11,567.8 11,632.8 11,708.3 11,827.7 11,849.3 11,900.3 11,931.3 11,972.4 12,045.6 12,120.3 12,187.4 12,201.4 28,294.5 30,723.3 33,179.6 34,934.2 35,749.6 37,039.0 38,203.3 39,965.8 41,459.6 43,255.4 ��������������������������������������������� ��������������������������������������������� 43,255.4 ��������������������������������������������� ��������������������������������������������� 43,506.1 ��������������������������������������������� ��������������������������������������������� 43,979.0 ��������������������������������������������� ��������������������������������������������� ��������������������������������������������� ��������������������������������������������� Percent change From previous period 4 From year or 6 months earlier 3 M1 M2 –0.1 –.5 .6 16.7 5.7 8.4 17.7 13.4 8.0 9.9 6.7 6.9 7.3 6.6 12.7 9.2 9.3 7.1 6.3 7.3 4.2 3.9 2.3 Debt 4.2 5.9 5.8 9.7 3.7 3.6 9.7 8.2 5.4 5.9 5.4 5.0 5.3 5.3 6.7 6.4 6.5 6.3 5.8 5.8 4.9 5.7 5.1 8.6 8.4 8.1 5.7 3.4 4.3 3.5 5.0 4.0 4.4 ������������������������������� ������������������������������� 4.8 ������������������������������� ������������������������������� 2.5 ������������������������������� ������������������������������� 4.4 ������������������������������� ������������������������������� ������������������������������� ������������������������������� 1 Money market mutual fund (MMMF). Savings deposits include money market deposit accounts (MMDA). 2 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. Quarterly data shown in last month of quarter. End-of-year data are for fourth quarter. 3 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a simple annual rate. 4 Annual changes are from fourth quarter to fourth quarter. Quarterly changes are from previous quarter at an annual rate. Note: See p. 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 26 Components of Money Stock [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period 2005: Dec ���������� � 2006: Dec ���������� � 2007: Dec ���������� � 2008: Dec ���������� � 2009: Dec ���������� � 2010: Dec ���������� � 2011: Dec ���������� � 2012: Dec ���������� � 2013: Dec ���������� � 2014: Dec ���������� � 2014: Oct ����������� ���������� Nov ����������� Dec 2015: Jan ���������� � ����������� Feb ���������� Mar r ��������� Apr May r �������� June r ������� r �������� July r ��������� Aug Sept r �������� ����������� Oct Currency 724.6 750.2 760.6 816.2 863.7 918.8 1,001.5 1,090.5 1,160.3 1,252.2 1,232.7 1,242.0 1,252.2 1,266.3 1,272.0 1,279.4 1,284.3 1,288.4 1,293.5 1,300.0 1,309.2 1,319.1 1,326.6 Other checkable deposits (OCDs) Nonbank travelers checks Demand deposits At commercial banks Total 7.2 6.7 6.3 5.5 5.1 4.7 4.3 3.8 3.5 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 324.3 305.6 303.4 473.3 448.2 519.3 751.8 920.5 1,024.0 1,177.8 1,153.6 1,159.3 1,177.8 1,181.8 1,224.0 1,209.6 1,214.5 1,194.6 1,207.8 1,232.4 1,241.0 1,216.4 1,194.1 318.7 305.7 306.4 312.0 381.4 399.0 410.6 442.8 466.7 485.4 478.3 479.2 485.4 484.7 498.9 501.0 499.0 500.0 505.7 507.2 507.4 512.9 512.4 180.8 176.8 173.0 178.8 231.2 235.8 233.2 244.6 257.9 267.3 261.7 261.6 267.3 264.2 271.7 273.4 271.5 270.4 276.6 277.5 275.1 279.9 278.7 Savings deposits (including MMDAs) At thrift institutions 138.0 128.9 133.3 133.3 150.2 163.2 177.5 198.3 208.7 218.1 216.7 217.7 218.1 220.6 227.2 227.6 227.6 229.6 229.1 229.7 232.4 233.0 233.8 Small-denomination time deposits 1 At commercial banks At commercial banks Total 3,603.4 3,695.5 3,869.6 4,091.4 4,815.5 5,333.7 6,033.3 6,686.0 7,131.8 7,584.6 7,509.5 7,545.4 7,584.6 7,644.5 7,707.5 7,746.7 7,800.4 7,861.6 7,888.1 7,937.4 8,004.5 8,080.6 8,118.4 2,774.6 2,911.8 3,042.1 3,322.1 3,979.2 4,410.0 5,034.2 5,727.0 6,111.0 6,505.7 6,434.7 6,472.1 6,505.7 6,558.1 6,614.7 6,651.9 6,697.8 6,744.2 6,766.3 6,816.6 6,880.5 6,949.0 6,976.6 At thrift institutions 828.9 783.7 827.5 769.3 836.4 923.6 999.0 959.0 1,020.8 1,078.9 1,074.7 1,073.3 1,078.9 1,086.4 1,092.9 1,094.8 1,102.6 1,117.4 1,121.8 1,120.8 1,124.0 1,131.6 1,141.7 Total 993.7 1,206.0 1,276.0 1,457.6 1,187.8 932.5 771.4 637.2 559.2 509.4 520.6 514.6 509.4 506.2 504.9 495.7 486.8 476.3 466.2 454.4 444.0 434.1 429.4 646.7 780.7 858.8 1,078.8 868.3 661.6 542.5 460.3 415.5 378.4 387.3 382.4 378.4 376.0 376.8 369.5 360.9 351.2 342.0 331.1 321.2 312.0 307.8 Institutional money funds 2 Retail money funds At thrift institutions 347.0 425.4 417.2 378.8 319.6 271.0 228.9 176.9 143.8 131.0 133.4 132.3 131.0 130.1 128.1 126.1 125.9 125.1 124.2 123.3 122.9 122.1 121.6 678.8 773.0 926.6 1,018.0 778.3 673.4 661.8 641.7 638.5 620.5 627.2 624.3 620.5 621.9 617.4 614.2 612.5 607.8 608.4 611.4 611.5 621.7 618.0 1,180.2 1,394.7 1,965.0 2,462.1 2,257.1 1,895.9 1,764.0 1,742.2 1,777.1 1,803.1 1,775.2 1,786.6 1,803.1 1,789.0 1,783.4 1,807.5 1,784.8 1,799.0 1,815.4 1,843.8 1,874.1 1,837.6 1,862.7 1 Small-denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000. 2 Institutional money funds are not part of non-M1 M2. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base [Averages of daily figures 1; millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted] Reserves of depository institutions Reserve balances maintained Period Total 2005: Dec ����������� � 2006: Dec ����������� � 2007: Dec ����������� � 2008: Dec ����������� � 2009: Dec ����������� � 2010: Dec ����������� � 2011: Dec ����������� � 2012: Dec ����������� � 2013: Dec ����������� � 2014: Dec ����������� � 2014: Oct ������������ ����������� Nov ������������ Dec 2015: Jan ����������� � ������������ Feb ����������� Mar ������������ Apr May ���������� � June ��������� � ����������� July ����������� Aug Sept ���������� ������������ Oct 10,046 8,479 8,098 783,631 1,099,831 1,035,074 1,550,043 1,517,425 2,485,248 2,606,700 2,705,668 2,519,578 2,606,700 2,683,709 2,496,868 2,675,202 2,698,960 2,584,359 2,553,138 2,590,841 2,608,263 2,643,958 2,668,193 To satisfy reserve balance requirements 2 That exceed the top of the penalty-free band ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ 75,713 90,852 93,260 94,838 90,852 99,273 97,853 100,477 101,495 101,248 96,362 100,727 105,413 100,898 98,333 ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ 2,409,535 2,515,848 2,612,408 2,424,740 2,515,848 2,584,437 2,399,015 2,574,726 2,597,465 2,483,111 2,456,776 2,490,114 2,502,851 2,543,060 2,569,860 Reserve balance requirements 3 8,146 6,616 6,314 16,312 24,632 28,438 47,838 58,674 69,030 82,770 85,026 86,424 82,770 90,522 89,118 91,495 92,469 92,358 87,882 91,834 96,142 91,977 89,638 Borrowings from the Federal Reserve Vault cash used to satisfy required reserves 35,337 34,803 35,365 37,245 40,619 42,927 48,672 52,959 55,771 59,236 54,648 55,521 59,236 61,875 59,204 57,660 57,780 57,374 57,990 58,458 57,795 57,321 57,751 Nonborrowed 4 45,214 43,091 28,033 167,311 970,523 1,032,512 1,589,189 1,569,589 2,540,849 2,665,835 2,760,096 2,574,968 2,665,835 2,745,518 2,556,053 2,732,843 2,756,688 2,641,646 2,610,979 2,649,113 2,665,823 2,701,023 2,725,749 Monetary base 5 803,124 826,731 837,192 1,666,365 2,026,220 2,017,000 2,619,586 2,675,945 3,717,450 3,934,455 4,001,451 3,830,424 3,934,455 4,017,103 3,840,464 4,030,632 4,059,374 3,949,372 3,919,648 3,961,187 3,983,943 4,028,420 4,060,437 Total 6 169 191 15,430 653,565 169,927 45,488 9,526 795 170 102 221 130 102 66 18 20 52 87 150 186 235 256 194 Primary Secondary 97 111 3,787 88,245 19,025 41 103 12 13 22 8 12 22 48 13 11 24 6 14 6 14 9 6 0 0 1 52 518 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Seasonal 72 80 30 3 37 26 23 23 59 80 200 119 80 18 5 9 28 81 135 179 221 246 188 Term assetbacked securities loan facility 7 �������������������� �������������������� �������������������� �������������������� 46,310 25,025 9,400 760 98 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Data are prorated averages of biweekly (maintenance period) averages of daily figures. 2 Equals the sum of balances maintained up to the top of each institution’s penalty-free band. 3 Excludes vault cash used to satisfy required reserves. 4 Total reserve balances maintained plus vault cash used to satisfy required reserves less total borrowings from the Federal Reserve. 5 Equals total balances maintained plus currency in circulation (not shown). 6 Includes term auction credit (December 2007 to April 2010), primary dealer and other broker-dealer credit (March 2008 to February 2010), credit extended to American International Group, Inc. (September 2008 to January 2011), asset-backed commercial paper money market mutual fund liquidity facility (September 2008 to February 2010), and other credit extensions, not shown separately. 7 Includes credit extended by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to eligible borrowers through the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility. Note: Data reflect the creation of a penalty-free band around reserve balance requirements which took effect June 27, 2013. See H.3 release of July 11, 2013. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks Total commercial bank loans and leases rose 0.7 percent in October. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 12,000 ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 10,000 9,000 8,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 12,000 TOTAL 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 7,000 6,000 6,000 LOANS AND LEASES 5,000 5,000 4,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 U.S. TREASURY AND AGENCY SECURITIES 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 800 800 OTHER SECURITIES 400 400 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 2015 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1] Securities in bank credit 2 Period 2005: Dec ���������� � 2006: Dec ���������� � 2007: Dec ���������� � 2008: Dec ���������� � 2009: Dec ���������� � 2010: Dec ���������� � 2011: Dec ���������� � 2012: Dec ���������� � 2013: Dec ���������� � 2014: Dec ���������� � 2014: Oct ����������� ���������� Nov ����������� Dec 2015: Jan ���������� � ����������� Feb ���������� Mar ����������� Apr May ��������� � June r ������� r �������� July ���������� Aug Sept r �������� ����������� Oct Total bank credit 7,315.6 8,108.4 8,904.2 9,353.2 8,995.5 9,191.7 9,402.0 9,959.3 10,096.4 10,853.4 10,698.9 10,768.2 10,853.4 10,957.6 11,025.3 11,111.6 11,183.8 11,242.2 11,290.6 11,342.1 11,395.6 11,413.1 11,492.0 Total securities 1,855.4 1,991.3 2,104.6 2,097.6 2,329.5 2,429.9 2,495.5 2,735.8 2,714.8 2,925.0 2,868.3 2,880.1 2,925.0 2,952.5 2,973.2 2,977.1 2,995.4 3,024.8 3,026.7 3,021.9 3,038.1 3,022.4 3,041.0 U.S. Treasury and agency securities 1,159.3 1,219.0 1,137.5 1,254.1 1,450.9 1,642.5 1,702.0 1,876.2 1,804.7 2,040.0 1,989.6 2,000.1 2,040.0 2,066.3 2,084.7 2,085.9 2,099.6 2,132.1 2,134.3 2,133.7 2,148.9 2,146.3 2,169.0 Loans and leases in bank credit Other securities 696.1 772.3 967.0 843.5 878.6 787.4 793.5 859.6 910.0 884.9 878.7 880.0 884.9 886.2 888.5 891.2 895.8 892.7 892.4 888.2 889.2 876.0 872.0 Total loans and leases 3 5,460.2 6,117.2 6,799.7 7,255.6 6,666.0 6,761.8 6,906.5 7,223.5 7,381.6 7,928.4 7,830.6 7,888.1 7,928.4 8,005.2 8,052.1 8,134.5 8,188.4 8,217.4 8,263.9 8,320.2 8,357.5 8,390.8 8,451.0 Commercial and industrial loans 1,036.1 1,182.6 1,417.7 1,558.8 1,265.2 1,192.3 1,303.7 1,475.6 1,576.7 1,776.0 1,736.6 1,756.5 1,776.0 1,793.2 1,811.6 1,839.2 1,850.0 1,866.5 1,883.9 1,892.4 1,905.2 1,911.2 1,928.3 Chart 28 - Nov 2015 Real estate loans Total 4 2,928.9 3,373.6 3,600.2 3,819.5 3,776.7 3,613.3 3,494.8 3,550.4 3,531.7 3,638.1 3,622.7 3,627.0 3,638.1 3,650.3 3,671.3 3,705.6 3,713.1 3,724.1 3,741.0 3,757.6 3,770.4 3,787.1 3,808.8 Revolving home equity loans 443.5 468.3 484.8 588.2 603.1 581.9 549.5 515.2 473.7 458.0 460.3 459.4 458.0 456.4 455.3 454.5 452.7 450.9 448.7 446.8 443.9 441.8 439.7 Commercial loans 1,270.1 1,459.3 1,587.2 1,728.4 1,640.9 1,500.4 1,418.3 1,428.2 1,498.6 1,605.1 1,586.7 1,594.8 1,605.1 1,615.6 1,629.9 1,652.2 1,660.6 1,670.5 1,683.2 1,698.8 1,712.2 1,728.8 1,746.6 Consumer loans 5 704.5 738.6 799.2 876.2 836.0 1,113.8 1,091.1 1,115.5 1,141.4 1,198.8 1,191.9 1,197.3 1,198.8 1,200.8 1,204.1 1,206.6 1,212.7 1,217.9 1,222.7 1,228.9 1,235.8 1,244.4 1,255.1 Other loans and leases 6 790.6 822.4 982.7 1,001.2 788.1 842.3 1,017.0 1,082.0 1,131.8 1,315.5 1,279.3 1,307.3 1,315.5 1,360.8 1,365.2 1,383.1 1,412.6 1,408.8 1,416.3 1,441.4 1,446.1 1,448.1 1,458.7 1 Data are prorated averages of Wednesday values for domestically chartered commercial banks, branches and agencies of foreign banks, and Edge Act and agreement corporations. 2 Includes securities held in trading accounts, held-to-maturity, and available-for-sale. Excludes all non-security trading assets, such as derivatives with a positive fair value or loans held in trading accounts. 3 Excludes unearned income. Includes the allowance for loan and lease losses. Excludes Federal funds sold to, reverse repurchase agreements (RPs) with, and loans to commercial banks in the United States. Includes all loans held in trading accounts under a fair value option. 4 Includes closed-end residential loans, not shown separately. 5 Includes credit cards and other consumer loans. 6 Includes other items, not shown separately. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 28 Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses External (Net increase in liabilities) Funds raised in markets Period Total 2005 �������������������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2013: I ��������������� � ��������������� II �������������� III �������������� IV 2014: I ��������������� � ��������������� II �������������� III �������������� IV 2015: I ��������������� � p ������������� II Internal 1 2,300.8 2,202.2 2,633.4 1,732.0 1,185.0 2,164.3 2,622.8 2,741.7 2,890.8 2,827.2 2,840.7 2,750.1 2,970.0 3,002.4 2,399.4 3,026.9 3,014.5 2,867.9 3,010.5 2,930.2 1,335.4 1,363.1 1,352.5 1,393.1 1,433.7 1,676.7 1,728.5 1,756.4 1,886.1 1,908.2 1,832.4 1,887.0 1,872.5 1,952.6 1,788.3 1,876.9 1,991.6 1,975.8 1,900.4 1,883.6 Total net funds raised Total 965.4 839.1 1,280.9 338.9 –248.7 487.6 894.3 985.3 1,004.7 919.0 1,008.3 863.1 1,097.5 1,049.8 611.1 1,150.0 1,022.9 892.1 1,110.1 1,046.6 –33.6 –108.8 –53.9 –53.7 –409.4 –321.4 –160.0 19.2 79.4 101.6 175.0 24.2 304.9 –186.4 114.9 70.7 78.9 141.9 44.3 83.6 Net new equity issues –300.2 –496.9 –706.3 –315.6 –51.2 –250.7 –454.6 –344.9 –352.9 –387.5 –213.7 –371.2 –344.1 –482.7 –501.8 –273.1 –434.3 –341.0 –592.0 –591.0 Credit market instruments Total Securities and mortgages Loans and short-term paper 191.4 215.7 257.5 122.1 109.7 82.2 108.8 275.5 314.9 283.3 316.1 208.9 479.4 255.6 303.3 253.9 223.9 352.3 529.7 700.4 75.3 172.3 395.1 139.9 –467.9 –153.0 185.7 88.4 117.3 205.8 72.7 186.6 169.6 40.8 313.5 89.9 289.4 130.5 106.5 –25.7 266.6 388.1 652.5 261.8 –358.2 –70.7 294.6 364.1 432.4 489.1 388.7 395.3 649.0 296.4 616.8 343.8 513.2 482.8 636.3 674.6 Other 2 900.2 755.9 1,122.7 203.0 56.0 652.0 861.6 777.9 740.3 720.3 729.1 627.4 591.8 1,012.9 921.3 836.5 573.8 549.4 303.5 717.9 Total 2,136.2 2,037.4 2,467.2 751.2 1,320.6 1,868.1 1,828.7 2,007.5 2,608.4 2,340.0 2,686.1 2,522.3 2,513.2 2,712.2 2,013.6 2,652.8 2,276.8 2,416.9 2,372.2 2,576.8 Capital expenditures 3 1,191.7 1,337.3 1,394.4 1,360.0 1,020.8 1,235.4 1,331.9 1,501.2 1,539.4 1,667.3 1,453.4 1,518.6 1,591.7 1,594.1 1,611.4 1,647.1 1,704.5 1,706.3 1,738.7 1,887.0 Increase in financial assets 944.5 700.1 1,072.8 –608.8 299.8 632.7 496.8 506.3 1,069.0 672.7 1,232.7 1,003.7 921.5 1,118.1 402.2 1,005.7 572.3 710.6 633.5 689.8 Discrepancy (sources less uses) 164.6 164.8 166.3 980.8 –135.6 296.1 794.2 734.2 282.3 487.1 154.6 227.8 456.9 290.2 385.7 374.1 737.7 451.1 638.3 353.3 1 Profits before tax (book) less taxes on corporate income, less net dividends, plus capital consumption allowance (consumption of fixed capital plus capital consumption adjustment), foreign earnings retained abroad, inventory valuation adjustment, and net capital transfers. 2 Includes trade payables, taxes payable, and miscellaneous liabilities (foreign direct investment in the U.S., pension fund contributions payable, and other). 3 Nonresidential fixed investment plus residential fixed investment, inventory change with inventory valuation adjustment, and nonproduced nonfinancial assets. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Consumer Credit [Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Net change in consumer credit outstanding 1 Consumer credit outstanding (end of period) Period Total 2005: Dec ����������������������������������������� � 2006: Dec ����������������������������������������� � 2007: Dec ����������������������������������������� � 2008: Dec ����������������������������������������� � 2009: Dec ����������������������������������������� � 2010: Dec ����������������������������������������� � 2011: Dec ����������������������������������������� � 2012: Dec ����������������������������������������� � 2013: Dec ����������������������������������������� � 2014: Dec ����������������������������������������� � 2014: Sept ���������������������������������������� ������������������������������������������ Oct ����������������������������������������� Nov ������������������������������������������ Dec 2015: Jan ����������������������������������������� � ������������������������������������������ Feb ����������������������������������������� Mar ������������������������������������������ Apr May ���������������������������������������� � June ��������������������������������������� � ����������������������������������������� July ����������������������������������������� Aug Sept p �������������������������������������� Nonrevolving 2 Revolving 2,290.9 2,461.3 2,615.1 2,650.0 2,552.3 2,646.9 2,755.4 2,922.9 3,098.8 3,317.2 3,267.5 3,284.1 3,300.5 3,317.2 3,328.0 3,342.8 3,363.4 3,388.0 3,407.6 3,434.8 3,454.2 3,470.3 3,499.2 829.5 924.0 1,002.0 1,004.4 916.4 839.5 841.2 845.9 858.2 890.0 883.4 884.8 886.1 890.0 888.4 886.1 890.8 900.4 902.9 910.3 914.5 918.5 925.2 1,461.4 1,537.3 1,613.1 1,645.7 1,635.9 1,807.4 1,914.2 2,077.0 2,240.6 2,427.2 2,384.0 2,399.3 2,414.5 2,427.2 2,439.5 2,456.7 2,472.6 2,487.6 2,504.7 2,524.5 2,539.8 2,551.8 2,574.0 Total Nonrevolving 2 Revolving 98.7 170.4 153.8 34.9 –97.7 94.6 108.5 167.5 175.9 218.4 18.1 16.6 16.4 16.7 10.8 14.8 20.6 24.6 19.6 27.2 19.4 16.1 28.9 29.9 94.5 78.0 2.4 –88.0 –76.9 1.7 4.7 12.3 31.8 2.0 1.4 1.3 3.9 –1.6 –2.3 4.7 9.6 2.5 7.4 4.2 4.0 6.7 68.7 75.9 75.8 32.6 –9.8 171.5 106.8 162.8 163.6 186.6 16.1 15.3 15.2 12.7 12.3 17.2 15.9 15.0 17.1 19.8 15.3 12.0 22.2 1 Change based on data in billions of dollars as shown here. For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month. 2 Includes automobile loans and all other loans not included in revolving credit, such as loans for mobile homes, education, boats, trailers, or vacations. These loans may be secured or unsecured. Note: Data include student loans extended by the Federal Government and by SLM Holding Corporation. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 Interest Rates and Bond Yields Interest rates were mixed in November. PERCENT PER ANNUM 10 PERCENT PER ANNUM 10 8 8 CORPORATE Aaa BONDS (MOODY'S) 6 6 4 4 FEDERAL FUNDS RATE 2 2 TREASURY BILLS 0 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW 2015 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] Chart 30 - Nov 2015 U.S. Treasury security yields Period 2005 �������������������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2014: Nov ���������� ����������� Dec 2015: Jan ���������� � ����������� Feb ���������� Mar ����������� Apr May ��������� � June �������� � ���������� July ���������� Aug Sept ��������� ����������� Oct ���������� Nov Week ended: 2015: Nov 7 ������ ������ 14 ������ 21 ������ 28 ec 5 D ������ 3-month bills (at auction) 1 Constant maturities 2 3-year 10-year 30-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor’s) 3 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody’s) Discount window primary credit (N.Y. F.R. Bank) 4 Prime rate charged by banks 4 3.16 4.73 4.41 1.48 .16 .14 .06 .09 .06 .03 .02 .04 .03 .02 .02 .03 .02 .01 .03 .09 .06 .01 .13 3.93 4.77 4.35 2.24 1.43 1.11 .75 .38 .54 .90 .96 1.06 .90 .99 1.02 .87 .98 1.07 1.03 1.03 1.01 .93 1.20 4.29 ����������������������� 4.80 4.91 4.63 4.84 3.66 4.28 3.26 4.08 3.22 4.25 2.78 3.91 1.80 2.92 2.35 3.45 2.54 3.34 2.33 3.04 2.21 2.83 1.88 2.46 1.98 2.57 2.04 2.63 1.94 2.59 2.20 2.96 2.36 3.11 2.32 3.07 2.17 2.86 2.17 2.95 2.07 2.89 2.26 3.03 4.29 4.42 4.42 4.80 4.64 4.16 4.29 3.14 3.96 3.78 3.49 3.39 3.16 3.26 3.29 3.40 3.77 3.76 3.73 3.57 3.56 3.48 3.50 5.24 5.59 5.56 5.63 5.31 4.94 4.64 3.67 4.24 4.16 3.92 3.79 3.46 3.61 3.64 3.52 3.98 4.19 4.15 4.04 4.07 3.95 4.06 4.19 5.96 5.86 2.39 .50 .72 .75 .75 .75 .75 .75 .75 .75 .75 .75 .75 .75 .75 .75 .75 .75 .75 .75 6.19 7.96 8.05 5.09 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 .11 .14 .15 .14 .22 1.15 1.23 1.20 1.24 1.24 2.26 2.32 2.26 2.24 2.23 3.51 3.60 3.49 3.40 3.26 4.05 4.11 4.07 4.01 3.97 .75 .75 .75 .75 .75 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.01 3.09 3.03 3.00 2.98 New-home mortgage yields (FHFA) 6 Federal funds rate 5 3.22 5.94 4.97 6.63 5.02 6.41 1.92 6.05 .16 5.14 .18 4.80 .10 4.56 .14 3.69 .11 4.00 .09 4.22 .09 4.16 .12 4.14 .11 4.05 .11 3.91 .11 3.93 .12 3.92 .12 3.89 .13 3.98 .13 4.10 .14 4.12 .14 4.09 .12 4.02 .12 ������������������������� .10 .12 .12 .12 .12 ������������������������� ������������������������� ������������������������� ������������������������� ������������������������� 1 High bill rate at auction, issue date within period, bank-discount basis. Data are stop yields from uniform-price auctions. 2 Yields on actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities. Series for 30-year constant maturity was discontinued on February 18, 2002 and reintroduced on February 6, 2006. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Average effective rate for year; rate in effect at end of month or week. 5 Daily effective rate; weighted average of rates on brokered trades. 6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Moody’s Investors Service, and Standard & Poor’s. 30 Common Stock Prices and Yields Stock prices were mixed in November. INDEX, DEC. 31, 2002=5,000 (RATIO SCALE) 12,000 INDEX, DEC. 31, 2002=5,000 (RATIO SCALE) 12,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 10,000 COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX (NYSE) 9,000 9,000 8,000 8,000 7,000 7,000 6,000 6,000 5,000 5,000 4,000 2007 2008 2010 2009 2011 4,000 2012 2013 2014 PERCENT 20 2015 PERCENT 20 15 15 EARNINGS/PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS (S&P) 10 10 5 5 0 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2012 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, STANDARD AND POOR'S, AND BLOOMBERG 2014 2015 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Common stock yields (percent) 6 Common stock prices 1 Chart 31 - Nov 2015 New York Stock Exchange indexes (December 31, 2002=5,000) 2 Period Composite 2005 ��������������������� 2006 ��������������������� 2007 ��������������������� 2008 ��������������������� 2009 ��������������������� 2010 ��������������������� 2011 ��������������������� 2012 ��������������������� 2013 ��������������������� 2014 ��������������������� 2014: Nov ����������� ������������ Dec 2015: Jan ����������� � ������������ Feb ����������� Mar ������������ Apr May ���������� � June ��������� � ����������� July ����������� Aug Sept ���������� ������������ Oct ����������� Nov Week ended: 2015: Nov 7 ������� ������� 14 ������� 21 ������� 28 ec 5 D ������� Financial Energy Health Care Dow Jones industrial average 3 Standard & Poor’s composite index (1941–43=10) 4 Nasdaq composite index (Feb. 5, 1971=100) 5 Dividend/price ratio Earnings/price ratio 7,349.01 8,357.99 9,648.82 8,036.88 6,091.02 7,230.42 7,871.41 8,011.65 9,426.77 10,653.17 10,911.73 10,818.24 10,679.25 10,969.94 10,917.86 11,094.59 11,145.24 11,014.96 10,857.76 10,532.02 9,957.64 10,324.90 10,426.30 7,383.70 8,654.40 9,321.33 6,278.38 3,987.04 4,744.05 4,641.01 4,616.63 5,805.54 6,448.33 6,681.69 6,712.14 6,480.39 6,607.33 6,624.48 6,690.03 6,784.59 6,784.54 6,773.74 6,595.14 6,158.78 6,371.68 6,486.79 9,377.84 11,206.94 13,339.92 13,258.42 10,020.30 10,943.85 12,880.35 12,512.31 13,490.83 14,598.07 13,710.24 12,420.24 12,004.74 12,624.48 11,965.22 12,697.46 12,652.05 12,069.40 11,259.16 10,383.96 9,739.62 10,544.15 10,517.43 6,283.96 6,685.06 7,191.91 6,171.19 5,456.63 6,230.62 6,847.80 7,503.05 9,250.02 11,195.85 11,939.26 12,108.74 12,230.02 12,470.21 12,807.87 13,053.10 13,109.92 13,185.09 13,357.41 13,165.34 12,370.38 12,223.45 12,307.48 10,547.67 11,408.67 13,169.98 11,252.61 8,876.15 10,662.80 11,966.36 12,967.08 14,999.67 16,773.99 17,648.98 17,754.24 17,542.26 17,945.41 17,931.75 17,970.51 18,124.71 17,927.22 17,795.02 17,061.59 16,339.95 17,182.28 17,723.77 1,207.06 1,310.67 1,476.66 1,220.89 946.73 1,139.31 1,268.89 1,379.56 1,642.51 1,930.67 2,044.57 2,054.27 2,028.18 2,082.20 2,079.99 2,094.86 2,111.94 2,099.28 2,094.14 2,039.87 1,944.40 2,024.81 2,080.62 2,099.03 2,265.17 2,577.12 2,162.46 1,841.03 2,347.70 2,680.42 2,965.77 3,537.69 4,374.31 4,687.70 4,732.70 4,673.70 4,854.26 4,938.01 4,985.95 5,029.43 5,073.04 5,082.81 4,934.62 4,748.00 4,879.04 5,082.51 1.83 1.87 1.86 2.37 2.40 1.98 2.05 2.24 2.14 2.04 2.00 2.01 2.04 2.00 2.02 2.02 2.06 2.07 2.08 2.16 2.25 2.18 2.13 5.36 5.78 5.29 3.54 1.86 6.04 6.77 6.20 5.57 5.25 ���������������������������� 4.97 ���������������������������� ���������������������������� 4.80 ���������������������������� ���������������������������� 4.60 ���������������������������� ���������������������������� p 4.73 ���������������������������� ���������������������������� 10,563.09 10,327.69 10,378.08 10,443.01 10,396.92 6,528.88 6,448.78 6,477.76 6,493.58 6,492.06 10,889.41 10,385.46 10,385.62 10,412.85 10,203.14 12,512.49 12,185.71 12,247.95 12,296.98 12,316.10 17,877.65 17,576.84 17,653.25 17,804.19 17,732.65 2,103.06 2,060.86 2,071.52 2,088.68 2,080.77 5,137.92 5,035.71 5,044.88 5,112.24 5,113.60 2.09 2.13 2.17 2.12 2.11 ���������������������������� ���������������������������� ���������������������������� ���������������������������� ���������������������������� 1 Annual data are averages of monthly figures. Monthly and weekly data are averages of daily closing prices. 2 Includes all the stocks (in 2015, over 3,200) listed on the NYSE. 3 Includes 30 stocks. 4 Includes 500 stocks. 5 Includes over 2,900 stocks in 2015. 6 Standard & Poor’s series. Dividend/price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings/price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones & Company, Inc., Standard & Poor’s, Nasdaq Stock Market, and Bloomberg. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt In the first month of fiscal year 2016, the deficit was $136.5 billion, compared with a deficit of $121.7 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4,200 4,000 RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4,200 1 4,000 OUTLAYS1 3,800 3,800 3,600 3,600 3,400 3,400 3,200 3,200 3,000 3,000 2,800 2,800 2,600 2,600 2,400 2,400 2,200 2,200 RECEIPTS1 2,000 2,000 1,800 1,800 1,600 1,600 400 SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (–)1 400 0 0 –400 –400 –800 –800 –1,200 –1,200 –1,600 –1,600 –2,000 –2,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 FISCAL YEARS 1 INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Total Fiscal year or period Receipts 1997 ���������������������������������������������������� 1998 ���������������������������������������������������� 1999 ���������������������������������������������������� 2000 ���������������������������������������������������� 2001 ���������������������������������������������������� 2002 ���������������������������������������������������� 2003 ���������������������������������������������������� 2004 ���������������������������������������������������� 2005 ���������������������������������������������������� 2006 ���������������������������������������������������� 2007 ���������������������������������������������������� 2008 ���������������������������������������������������� 2009 ���������������������������������������������������� 2010 ���������������������������������������������������� 2011 ���������������������������������������������������� 2012 ���������������������������������������������������� 2013 ���������������������������������������������������� 2014 ���������������������������������������������������� 2015 1 �������������������������������������������������� 2016 (estimates) ��������������������������������� First month: 2 Fiscal year 2015 ���������������������������������� Fiscal year 2016 ���������������������������������� Outlays Chart 32 - Oct 2015 On-budget Surplus or deficit (–) Receipts Outlays Federal debt (end of period) Off-budget Surplus or deficit (–) Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (–) Gross Federal Held by the public 1,579.2 1,721.7 1,827.5 2,025.2 1,991.1 1,853.1 1,782.3 1,880.1 2,153.6 2,406.9 2,568.0 2,524.0 2,105.0 2,162.7 2,303.5 2,450.0 2,775.1 3,021.5 3,248.7 3,557.4 1,601.1 1,652.5 1,701.8 1,789.0 1,862.8 2,010.9 2,159.9 2,292.8 2,472.0 2,655.1 2,728.7 2,982.5 3,517.7 3,457.1 3,603.1 3,537.0 3,454.6 3,506.1 3,687.6 3,986.8 –21.9 69.3 125.6 236.2 128.2 –157.8 –377.6 –412.7 –318.3 –248.2 –160.7 –458.6 –1,412.7 –1,294.4 –1,299.6 –1,087.0 –679.5 –484.6 –438.9 –429.4 1,187.2 1,305.9 1,383.0 1,544.6 1,483.6 1,337.8 1,258.5 1,345.4 1,576.1 1,798.5 1,932.9 1,865.9 1,451.0 1,531.0 1,737.7 1,880.5 2,101.8 2,285.9 2,478.3 2,749.3 1,290.5 1,335.9 1,381.1 1,458.2 1,516.0 1,655.2 1,796.9 1,913.3 2,069.7 2,233.0 2,275.0 2,507.8 3,000.7 2,902.4 3,104.5 3,029.4 2,820.8 2,800.1 2,944.5 3,201.4 –103.2 –29.9 1.9 86.4 –32.4 –317.4 –538.4 –568.0 –493.6 –434.5 –342.2 –641.8 –1,549.7 –1,371.4 –1,366.8 –1,148.9 –719.0 –514.1 –466.2 –452.1 392.0 415.8 444.5 480.6 507.5 515.3 523.8 534.7 577.5 608.4 635.1 658.0 654.0 631.7 565.8 569.5 673.3 735.6 770.4 808.1 310.6 316.6 320.8 330.8 346.8 355.7 363.0 379.5 402.2 422.1 453.6 474.8 517.0 554.7 498.6 507.6 633.8 706.1 743.1 785.4 81.4 99.2 123.7 149.8 160.7 159.7 160.8 155.2 175.3 186.3 181.5 183.3 137.0 77.0 67.2 61.9 39.5 29.5 27.3 22.8 5,369.2 5,478.2 5,605.5 5,628.7 5,769.9 6,198.4 6,760.0 7,354.7 7,905.3 8,451.4 8,950.7 9,986.1 11,875.9 13,528.8 14,764.2 16,050.9 16,719.4 17,794.5 18,117.9 19,235.2 3,772.3 3,721.1 3,632.4 3,409.8 3,319.6 3,540.4 3,913.4 4,295.5 4,592.2 4,829.0 5,035.1 5,803.1 7,544.7 9,018.9 10,128.2 11,281.1 11,982.7 12,779.9 13,116.6 13,974.1 212.7 211.0 334.4 347.6 –121.7 –136.5 160.5 155.9 271.5 282.1 –111.1 –126.2 52.3 55.1 62.9 65.5 –10.7 –10.4 17,907.2 18,117.8 12,853.5 13,060.6 1 Data for fiscal year 2015 are from Final Monthly Treasury Statement issued October 15, 2015 . 2 Data from current issue Monthly Treasury Statement. Note: Data for fiscal year 2016 are from Mid-Session Review, Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 2016, issued July 14, 2015. Other data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2016, issued February 2 , 2015. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 32 Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function In the first month of fiscal year 2016, receipts were $1.7 billion lower than a year earlier and outlays were $13.2 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,800 RECEIPTS1 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 OTHER RECEIPTS 0 3,600 3,400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES CORPORATION INCOME TAXES SOCIAL INSURANCE AND RETIREMENT RECEIPTS 3,600 3,400 OUTLAYS1 3,200 3,200 NONDEFENSE 3,000 3,000 2,800 2,800 2,600 2,600 2,400 2,400 2,200 2,200 2,000 2,000 1,800 1,800 1,600 1,600 NATIONAL DEFENSE 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 FISCAL YEARS 1 INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Chart 33 - Oct 2015 On-budget and off-budget receipts Fiscal year or period 1997 ���������������������������������������������������� 1998 ���������������������������������������������������� 1999 ���������������������������������������������������� 2000 ���������������������������������������������������� 2001 ���������������������������������������������������� 2002 ���������������������������������������������������� 2003 ���������������������������������������������������� 2004 ���������������������������������������������������� 2005 ���������������������������������������������������� 2006 ���������������������������������������������������� 2007 ���������������������������������������������������� 2008 ���������������������������������������������������� 2009 ���������������������������������������������������� 2010 ���������������������������������������������������� 2011 ���������������������������������������������������� 2012 ���������������������������������������������������� 2013 ���������������������������������������������������� 2014 ���������������������������������������������������� 2015 1 �������������������������������������������������� 2016 (estimates) ��������������������������������� First month: 2 Fiscal year 2015 ���������������������������������� Fiscal year 2016 ���������������������������������� On-budget and off-budget outlays National defense Indi- Corporavidual tion income income taxes taxes Social insurance and retirement receipts 1,579.2 1,721.7 1,827.5 2,025.2 1,991.1 1,853.1 1,782.3 1,880.1 2,153.6 2,406.9 2,568.0 2,524.0 2,105.0 2,162.7 2,303.5 2,450.0 2,775.1 3,021.5 3,248.7 3,557.4 737.5 828.6 879.5 1,004.5 994.3 858.3 793.7 809.0 927.2 1,043.9 1,163.5 1,145.7 915.3 898.5 1,091.5 1,132.2 1,316.4 1,394.6 1,540.8 1,701.4 182.3 188.7 184.7 207.3 151.1 148.0 131.8 189.4 278.3 353.9 370.2 304.3 138.2 191.4 181.1 242.3 273.5 320.7 343.8 429.1 539.4 571.8 611.8 652.9 694.0 700.8 713.0 733.4 794.1 837.8 869.6 900.2 890.9 864.8 818.8 845.3 947.8 1,023.5 1,065.3 1,120.9 120.1 132.6 151.5 160.6 151.7 146.0 143.9 148.4 154.0 171.2 164.7 173.7 160.5 207.9 212.1 230.2 237.4 282.7 298.8 306.0 1,601.1 1,652.5 1,701.8 1,789.0 1,862.8 2,010.9 2,159.9 2,292.8 2,472.0 2,655.1 2,728.7 2,982.5 3,517.7 3,457.1 3,603.1 3,537.0 3,454.6 3,506.1 3,687.6 3,986.8 270.5 268.2 274.8 294.4 304.7 348.5 404.7 455.8 495.3 521.8 551.3 616.1 661.0 693.5 705.6 677.9 633.4 603.5 591.4 614.6 258.3 255.8 261.2 281.0 290.2 331.8 387.1 436.4 474.1 499.3 528.5 594.6 636.7 666.7 678.1 650.9 607.8 577.9 562.5 586.1 15.2 13.1 15.2 17.2 16.5 22.3 21.2 26.9 34.6 29.5 28.5 28.9 37.5 45.2 45.7 47.2 46.2 46.7 48.6 56.4 123.8 131.4 141.0 154.5 172.2 196.5 219.5 240.1 250.5 252.7 266.4 280.6 334.3 369.1 372.5 346.7 358.3 409.4 482.2 548.9 190.0 192.8 190.4 197.1 217.4 230.9 249.4 269.4 298.6 329.9 375.4 390.8 430.1 451.6 485.7 471.8 497.8 511.7 546.2 592.4 235.0 237.8 242.5 253.7 269.8 312.7 334.6 333.1 345.8 352.5 366.0 431.3 533.2 622.2 597.4 541.3 536.5 513.6 509.4 547.0 365.3 379.2 390.0 409.4 433.0 456.0 474.7 495.5 523.3 548.5 586.2 617.0 683.0 706.7 730.8 773.3 813.6 850.5 887.8 930.2 244.0 241.1 229.8 222.9 206.2 170.9 153.1 160.2 184.0 226.6 237.1 252.8 186.9 196.2 230.0 220.4 220.9 229.0 223.3 249.7 157.3 188.9 218.1 239.7 243.1 273.1 302.6 311.8 339.8 393.5 317.9 365.2 651.6 372.6 435.5 458.3 347.9 341.7 398.8 447.6 212.7 211.0 106.7 109.2 10.2 4.3 73.9 76.8 22.0 20.7 334.4 347.6 63.3 60.4 60.9 57.7 4.4 2.3 38.3 42.4 68.7 75.4 41.3 37.7 71.7 74.8 21.1 20.0 25.7 34.5 Total Other Total Total Depart- Internament tional of affairs Defense, military Health Medicare Income Social Net security security interest Other 1 Data for fiscal year 2015 are from Final Monthly Treasury Statement issued October 15, 2015. 2 Data from current issue Monthly Treasury Statement. Data for Department of Defense, military, include a small amount that is classified and listed under international affairs, and not included in national defense. Note: Data for fiscal year 2016 are from Mid-Session Review, Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 2016, issued July 14, 2015. Other data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2016, issued February 2, 2015. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis In the third quarter of 2015, according to revised estimates, Federal current receipts rose $42.5 billion (annual rate), while Federal current expenditures rose $65.6 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4,400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4,400 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 4,000 4,000 3,600 3,600 CURRENT EXPENDITURES 3,200 3,200 2,800 2,800 2,400 2,400 CURRENT RECEIPTS 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 800 800 400 400 0 0 –400 –400 –800 –800 NET FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SAVING –1,200 –1,200 –1,600 –1,600 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Chart 34 - Nov 2015 Federal Government current receipts Federal Government current expenditures Current tax receipts Period Calendar year: 2005 ������������� 2006 ������������� 2007 ������������� 2008 ������������� 2009 ������������� 2010 ������������� 2011 ������������� 2012 ������������� 2013 ������������� 2014 ������������� 2013: I �������������� � �������������� II ������������� III ������������� IV 2014: I �������������� � �������������� II ������������� III ������������� IV 2015: I �������������� � r ������������ II r ����������� III Total 2,303.5 2,537.7 2,667.2 2,579.5 2,238.4 2,443.3 2,574.1 2,699.1 3,141.3 3,265.2 2,976.7 3,253.8 3,086.4 3,248.2 3,215.5 3,256.3 3,293.4 3,295.7 3,356.5 3,440.4 3,482.9 Total 1 1,389.3 1,563.4 1,642.4 1,520.7 1,171.1 1,352.7 1,553.8 1,661.1 1,825.0 1,974.4 1,771.9 1,809.7 1,844.2 1,874.0 1,921.9 1,970.2 1,989.7 2,015.6 2,085.1 2,146.0 2,168.7 Contributions for Income Taxes govern- receipts Taxes Personal on ment on on current production corporate social assets taxes and insurincome imports ance 936.8 1,054.6 1,169.7 1,174.3 864.5 941.6 1,129.1 1,164.7 1,300.6 1,396.9 1,263.4 1,294.4 1,311.0 1,333.6 1,359.3 1,380.2 1,406.5 1,441.7 1,501.0 1,527.2 1,550.5 99.4 99.2 94.6 94.0 91.4 96.8 108.6 115.1 125.8 137.8 122.8 124.9 126.7 128.9 136.5 137.1 139.0 138.8 140.5 145.3 140.2 341.0 395.0 362.8 233.7 200.4 298.7 299.4 363.1 379.2 417.9 366.9 371.7 386.6 391.8 403.2 432.6 421.9 413.9 419.0 448.7 452.7 853.4 905.7 947.2 974.4 950.8 970.9 904.0 938.1 1,093.4 1,145.2 1,075.4 1,091.7 1,098.2 1,108.2 1,130.7 1,137.4 1,149.1 1,163.5 1,172.2 1,185.3 1,197.7 1 Includes taxes from the rest of the world, not shown separately. 2 Includes Federal grants-in-aid to State and local governments, not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 34 27.3 29.0 33.4 33.9 48.5 54.6 56.4 52.6 163.2 74.8 72.8 298.3 91.9 189.8 103.8 75.1 57.7 62.5 45.7 44.5 68.6 Current transfer receipts 32.7 37.9 42.0 49.7 67.2 68.1 67.1 56.1 71.1 80.6 66.9 65.4 63.5 88.5 68.5 83.4 106.5 63.8 61.6 72.6 55.9 Current surplus of government enterprises 0.9 1.8 2.0 .8 .8 –3.1 –7.1 –8.9 –11.3 –9.7 –10.2 –11.3 –11.4 –12.3 –9.5 –9.9 –9.6 –9.8 –8.1 –8.0 –8.0 Total 2,608.2 2,764.8 2,932.8 3,213.5 3,487.2 3,772.0 3,818.3 3,789.1 3,782.2 3,896.7 3,767.3 3,779.8 3,794.1 3,787.7 3,834.7 3,886.3 3,943.5 3,922.4 3,935.8 4,014.6 4,080.2 ConCurrent sumption transfer Interest Subsidies expendipaypayments tures ments 2 723.4 763.9 798.4 879.8 933.7 1,003.9 1,006.1 1,007.8 961.3 955.3 978.5 967.0 950.8 948.7 952.9 950.9 968.2 949.1 956.7 957.2 961.4 1,479.8 1,577.4 1,678.8 1,896.1 2,142.9 2,333.2 2,327.0 2,300.8 2,346.0 2,443.9 2,328.2 2,339.2 2,361.0 2,355.6 2,390.3 2,429.8 2,471.7 2,484.0 2,539.4 2,542.2 2,582.4 344.4 372.3 408.2 388.0 353.6 380.6 425.7 422.9 416.1 440.1 401.9 414.3 423.3 424.9 433.8 448.2 445.9 432.3 382.6 457.2 477.6 60.5 51.1 47.5 49.6 56.9 54.3 59.5 57.6 58.9 57.4 58.7 59.3 59.0 58.6 57.6 57.4 57.7 57.0 57.1 58.0 58.8 Net Federal Government saving –304.7 –227.0 –265.7 –634.0 –1,248.8 –1,328.7 –1,244.1 –1,090.1 –640.9 –631.5 –790.6 –525.9 –707.7 –539.6 –619.2 –630.0 –650.1 –626.7 –579.3 –574.2 –597.2 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries Industrial production (2012=100; seasonally adjusted) Period United States Canada Japan France Germany Consumer prices (1982–84=100; NSA) United Kingdom Italy United States 1 Canada Japan France Germany 2005 r ������������� 99.6 108.1 109.5 111.8 89.9 118.9 111.6 195.3 185.0 118.4 173.4 2006 r ������������� 101.8 107.5 114.0 113.1 95.1 123.3 112.3 201.6 188.7 118.6 176.3 2007 r ������������� 104.4 106.3 117.4 114.7 100.9 125.5 112.6 207.342 192.7 118.7 178.9 r ������������� 2008 100.8 102.7 113.2 111.0 100.8 120.9 109.7 215.303 197.3 120.3 184.0 r ������������� 2009 89.4 91.0 88.7 95.6 84.3 98.4 100.2 214.537 197.9 118.7 184.1 2010 r ������������� 94.4 95.4 102.6 100.2 93.5 105.2 103.4 218.056 201.4 117.9 186.9 2011 r ������������� 97.2 100.0 99.8 102.6 100.3 106.6 102.8 224.939 207.2 117.5 190.9 2012 ��������������� 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 229.594 210.4 117.5 194.6 r ������������� 2013 101.9 101.6 99.4 99.6 100.1 96.9 99.2 232.957 212.4 117.9 196.3 2014 r ������������� 105.7 105.5 101.5 98.5 101.5 96.4 100.6 236.736 216.4 121.2 197.3 r ��� 2014: Sept 106.7 106.1 100.5 98.6 101.3 95.6 100.9 238.031 217.5 122.5 197.2 r ����� Oct 106.8 106.4 100.9 97.8 101.6 95.7 100.8 237.433 217.7 122.1 197.3 r ���� Nov 107.8 105.8 100.3 97.4 101.7 96.1 100.8 236.151 216.8 121.6 197.0 r ���� Dec 107.9 106.1 100.5 99.0 102.7 96.7 100.7 234.812 215.3 121.8 197.1 2015: Jan r ���� 107.6 105.7 104.6 99.5 102.4 96.1 100.6 233.707 214.9 121.5 195.1 r ���� Feb 107.4 105.3 101.3 100.0 102.6 96.7 101.0 234.722 216.8 121.3 196.4 r ��� Mar 107.2 104.7 100.5 100.0 102.1 97.2 101.6 236.119 218.4 121.8 197.7 r ���� Apr 107.1 103.2 101.7 99.1 102.8 96.9 101.6 236.599 218.2 122.2 198.0 r ��� May 106.7 102.6 99.6 99.4 103.2 97.7 101.9 237.805 219.4 122.6 198.4 June r �� 106.7 103.3 100.7 99.6 102.5 96.8 101.7 238.638 219.9 122.3 198.3 r ��� July 107.5 104.9 99.9 98.6 103.5 97.9 101.3 238.654 220.1 122.2 197.4 r ���� Aug 107.6 105.3 98.7 100.3 102.6 97.3 102.2 238.316 220.1 122.5 198.1 r ��� Sept 107.4 103.4 99.8 100.4 101.4 97.5 102.0 237.945 219.8 122.5 197.3 p ���� Oct 107.2 ��������������� 101.2 ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� 237.838 219.9 122.5 197.4 p ��� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� Nov 153.7 156.2 159.7 163.9 164.5 166.3 169.7 173.1 175.7 177.3 177.9 177.4 177.4 177.4 175.6 177.1 177.9 177.9 178.1 177.9 178.3 178.3 177.9 177.9 178.1 Italy United Kingdom 260.6 225.6 266.1 232.8 270.9 242.7 280.0 252.4 282.2 251.1 286.5 262.7 294.5 276.3 303.4 285.2 307.1 293.9 307.9 300.8 307.5 302.7 307.8 302.8 307.2 302.1 307.2 302.5 306.1 300.1 307.2 301.6 307.5 302.1 308.1 303.1 308.4 303.7 309.0 304.2 308.7 303.8 309.2 305.2 308.1 305.0 308.7 304.9 307.5 ����������������� 1 Data relate to all urban consumers. Note: See Note, p. 17, for information on U.S. industrial production series. Sources: As reported by each country, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services [Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Goods: Exports (f.a.s. value) Census basis (by end-use category) Period 2005 ��������������� 2006 ��������������� 2007 ��������������� 2008 ��������������� 2009 ��������������� 2010 ��������������� 2011 ��������������� 2012 ��������������� 2013 ��������������� 2014 ��������������� 2014: Oct ������ ����� Nov ������ Dec 2015: Jan ����� � ������ Feb ����� Mar r ���� Apr May r ��� June r �� r ��� July r ���� Aug Sept r ��� p ���� Oct BOP basis 913.0 1,040.9 1,165.2 1,308.8 1,070.3 1,290.3 1,499.2 1,562.6 1,592.0 1,632.6 138.1 136.5 134.5 129.3 126.3 127.2 129.3 127.8 127.5 128.7 124.4 126.9 123.8 IndusFoods, trial Total, feeds, supCensus and plies basis 1 bever- and ages materials 901.1 1,026.0 1,148.2 1,287.4 1,056.0 1,278.5 1,482.5 1,545.8 1,578.4 1,620.5 137.2 135.5 134.1 128.5 125.6 126.1 128.5 127.1 126.6 127.8 123.8 126.4 123.4 59.0 66.0 84.3 108.3 93.9 107.7 126.2 133.0 136.2 143.8 12.0 12.1 11.9 11.0 10.8 11.0 10.8 11.0 10.5 10.7 10.4 10.8 10.2 233.0 276.0 316.4 388.0 296.5 391.7 501.1 501.2 508.1 505.1 41.9 42.3 39.5 37.6 36.3 36.3 36.9 37.8 37.1 37.4 35.2 35.2 33.6 98.4 107.3 121.3 121.5 81.7 112.0 133.0 146.2 152.7 159.7 13.6 13.2 13.6 12.8 11.8 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.7 13.3 12.8 12.9 12.8 Balance of trade (exports minus imports) Census basis (by end-use category) Auto- ConCapital motive sumer vegoods goods except hicles, (nonauto- parts food) motive and except enautogines motive 358.4 404.0 433.0 457.7 391.2 447.5 494.0 527.2 534.2 551.1 47.7 45.7 46.4 45.9 44.4 45.3 47.3 44.9 44.1 44.3 44.4 45.3 44.4 Services (BOP basis) Goods: Imports (customs value) 115.3 129.1 146.0 161.3 149.5 165.2 175.3 181.7 189.1 198.9 17.0 16.6 16.7 16.7 17.8 16.1 16.0 16.0 16.8 16.3 15.8 17.0 16.5 BOP basis 1,695.8 1,878.2 1,986.3 2,141.3 1,580.0 1,939.0 2,239.9 2,303.7 2,294.6 2,374.1 200.0 195.8 199.3 192.2 184.4 198.3 191.3 189.9 192.6 190.0 192.1 187.8 186.8 IndusFoods, trial Total, feeds, supCensus and plies basis 1 bever- and ages materials 1,673.5 1,853.9 1,957.0 2,103.6 1,559.6 1,913.9 2,208.0 2,276.3 2,268.4 2,347.7 197.9 193.7 197.1 189.6 181.6 195.4 187.9 186.7 188.9 187.1 190.0 185.9 184.7 68.1 74.9 81.7 89.0 81.6 91.7 107.5 110.3 115.1 125.8 10.8 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.5 11.0 10.9 10.5 11.1 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.3 523.8 602.0 634.7 779.5 462.4 603.1 755.8 730.6 681.6 666.8 54.8 51.0 53.5 46.7 42.6 42.2 41.5 40.7 41.9 42.3 40.0 38.4 36.4 BOP basis Auto- ConCapital motive sumer vegoods Exports goods except hicles, (nonauto- parts food) motive and except enautogines motive 379.3 418.3 444.5 453.7 370.5 449.4 510.8 548.7 554.6 591.1 50.6 50.4 50.2 50.4 48.7 52.1 51.6 50.4 49.1 49.3 50.3 49.3 49.8 239.4 256.6 256.7 231.2 157.7 225.1 254.6 297.8 308.8 327.7 28.0 27.5 28.2 28.1 26.6 29.0 28.6 29.4 29.7 30.1 29.6 28.8 29.1 407.2 442.6 474.6 481.6 427.3 483.2 514.1 516.9 532.8 557.8 47.3 47.9 47.8 47.2 46.3 53.8 48.9 48.9 50.4 47.8 51.8 51.5 51.7 373.0 416.7 488.4 532.8 512.7 563.3 627.8 656.4 687.9 710.6 59.7 59.7 60.4 59.7 59.6 59.6 59.1 59.3 59.4 59.6 59.8 59.9 60.3 Imports Goods, Census basis Goods Services Goods and services 304.4 341.2 372.6 409.1 386.8 409.3 435.8 452.0 463.7 477.4 40.5 40.4 41.3 40.4 40.1 40.6 40.5 40.6 40.5 40.7 40.9 41.4 41.1 –772.4 –828.0 –808.8 –816.2 –503.6 –635.4 –725.4 –730.4 –689.9 –727.2 –60.7 –58.2 –63.1 –61.1 –55.9 –69.3 –59.4 –59.6 –62.3 –59.3 –66.3 –59.4 –61.3 68.6 75.6 115.8 123.8 125.9 154.0 192.0 204.4 224.2 233.1 19.2 19.3 19.2 19.4 19.5 19.0 18.6 18.6 18.9 18.8 18.9 18.5 19.2 –714.2 –761.7 –705.4 –708.7 –383.8 –494.7 –548.6 –536.8 –478.4 –508.3 –42.8 –40.0 –45.5 –43.6 –38.5 –52.2 –43.4 –43.4 –46.3 –42.4 –48.8 –42.5 –43.9 –782.8 –837.3 –821.2 –832.5 –509.7 –648.7 –740.6 –741.2 –702.6 –741.5 –61.9 –59.3 –64.7 –63.0 –58.0 –71.2 –62.0 –62.1 –65.1 –61.3 –67.7 –61.0 –63.1 1 Total includes ‘‘other’’ exports or imports, not shown separately. Note: BOP refers to balance of payments on international transactions basis. BOP data shown here are consistent with figures shown on pp. 36 and 37. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis). 35 U.S. International Transactions In the second quarter of 2015, the current account deficit fell to $109.7 billion from $118.3 billion in the first quarter of 2015. The goods and services deficit fell to $130.0 billion in the second quarter from $134.3 billion in the first quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 80 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 80 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 60 60 40 40 BALANCE ON PRIMARY INCOME 20 20 0 0 –20 –20 –40 –40 BALANCE ON SECONDARY INCOME –60 –60 BALANCE ON CURRENT ACCOUNT –80 –80 –100 –100 –120 –120 –140 –140 BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES –160 –160 –180 –180 –200 –200 –220 –220 –240 –240 2007 2006 2009 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 2014 2015 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted] Chart 36 - Sep 2015 Current Account 1 Goods 2 Period Services Exports 2005 �������������������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2013: I ��������������� � ��������������� II �������������� III �������������� IV 2014: I ��������������� � ��������������� II �������������� III �������������� IV 2015: I ��������������� ��������������� II Imports Balance on goods 913,016 1,040,905 1,165,151 1,308,795 1,070,331 1,290,273 1,499,240 1,562,578 1,592,043 1,632,639 393,405 394,698 397,058 406,883 401,429 409,152 412,933 409,126 382,803 384,752 1,695,820 1,878,194 1,986,347 2,141,287 1,580,025 1,938,950 2,239,886 2,303,749 2,294,630 2,374,101 571,802 570,862 575,470 576,496 585,739 597,265 596,009 595,089 574,959 573,117 –782,804 –837,289 –821,196 –832,492 –509,694 –648,678 –740,646 –741,171 –702,587 –741,462 –178,396 –176,165 –178,413 –169,614 –184,310 –188,113 –183,076 –185,963 –192,156 –188,365 Exports 373,006 416,738 488,396 532,817 512,722 563,333 627,781 656,411 687,894 710,565 170,358 170,449 172,358 174,729 175,704 178,721 176,331 179,810 178,876 179,943 Imports 304,448 341,165 372,575 409,052 386,801 409,313 435,761 452,013 463,700 477,428 113,828 115,540 116,100 118,232 116,812 119,320 119,126 122,170 121,009 121,576 Balance on services 68,558 75,573 115,821 123,765 125,920 154,020 192,020 204,398 224,193 233,138 56,530 54,908 56,259 56,496 58,892 59,401 57,205 57,640 57,868 58,367 Balance on goods and services –714,245 –761,716 –705,375 –708,726 –383,774 –494,658 –548,625 –536,773 –478,394 –508,324 –121,867 –121,256 –122,154 –113,117 –125,418 –128,712 –125,871 –128,323 –134,288 –129,998 Primary income receipts and payments Receipts 543,982 693,089 844,033 823,707 614,379 684,915 759,727 769,479 794,763 823,353 193,362 198,575 200,477 202,349 202,235 204,850 209,715 206,554 194,746 201,854 Payments 476,349 649,752 743,429 677,561 490,794 507,254 538,766 557,301 570,220 585,369 144,609 143,273 140,954 141,383 143,941 146,915 147,985 146,529 144,998 151,214 Balance on primary income 67,632 43,337 100,604 146,146 123,584 177,661 220,961 212,178 224,543 237,984 48,753 55,302 59,523 60,965 58,294 57,935 61,730 60,025 49,748 50,640 Balance on secondary Income 3 –98,822 –88,347 –113,872 –128,209 –123,833 –124,964 –132,690 –125,075 –122,910 –119,185 –29,605 –31,660 –32,163 –29,482 –29,319 –21,263 –33,764 –34,840 –33,754 –30,318 Balance on current account –745,434 –806,726 –718,643 –690,789 –384,023 –441,961 –460,354 –449,670 –376,760 –389,526 –102,719 –97,615 –94,794 –81,633 –96,443 –92,039 –97,905 –103,138 –118,295 –109,676 Current account balance as a percentage of GDP –5.7 –5.8 –5.0 –4.7 –2.7 –3.0 –3.0 –2.8 –2.3 –2.2 –2.5 –2.4 –2.3 –1.9 –2.3 –2.1 –2.2 –2.3 –2.7 –2.4 1 Current and capital account statistics in the international transactions accounts differ slightly from statistics in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) because of adjustments made to convert the international statistics to national accounting concepts. A reconciliation can be found in NIPA table 4.3B. 2 Adjusted from Census data to align with concepts and definitions used to prepare the international and national economic accounts. The adjustments are necessary to supplement coverage of Census data, to eliminate duplication of transactions recorded elsewhere in the international accounts, to value transactions according to a standard definition, and for earlier years, to record transactions in the appropriate period. 3 Includes U.S. government and private transfers, such as U.S. government grants and pensions, fines and penalties, withholding taxes, personal transfers, insurance-related transfers, and other current transfers. See p. 37 for continuation of table. 36 U.S. International Transactions—Continued In the financial account, U.S. net borrowing was $59.7 billion in the second quarter of 2015, resulting from a net increase in U.S. financial assets of $137.5 billion plus a net increase in transactions in financial derivatives of $1.8 billion, less a net increase in U.S. liabilities of $199.0 billion. U.S. net borrowing was down slightly from $60.3 billion in the first quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 800 800 700 700 CHANGE IN U.S. LIABILITIES 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 –100 –100 CHANGE IN U.S. ASSETS ABROAD1 –200 –200 –300 –300 –400 –400 –500 –500 2007 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1 INCLUDES FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES, NET, BEGINNING 2006. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted] Chart 37 - Sep 2015 Financial account Period Balance on capital account 1 Net U.S. acquisition of financial assets excluding financial derivatives [net increase in assets / financial outflow (+)] Total 2005 �������������������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2013: I ��������������� � ��������������� II �������������� III �������������� IV 2014: I ��������������� � ��������������� II �������������� III �������������� IV 2015: I ��������������� � ��������������� II 13,116 572,317 –1,788 1,336,866 384 1,572,509 6,010 –309,468 –140 132,204 –157 963,449 –1,186 496,320 6,904 167,398 –412 643,915 –45 792,145 –40 212,645 –227 202,007 –146 22,561 0 206,703 –43 151,706 –2 239,149 –1 359,601 0 41,690 –24 320,173 0 137,519 Direct investment assets Portfolio investment assets Other investment assets 61,925 267,290 257,196 296,059 493,366 549,814 532,939 380,807 658,641 351,724 –284,269 –381,770 313,726 375,883 –609,662 354,575 199,620 407,420 440,405 85,365 –45,327 377,899 238,763 –453,724 399,203 476,237 –228,426 357,190 538,058 –99,520 73,344 152,958 –14,532 132,629 166,159 –96,590 95,717 13,088 –85,243 97,514 144,031 –32,060 55,050 98,981 –1,369 90,293 195,068 –46,986 99,300 162,884 98,306 112,547 81,125 –149,471 67,443 233,524 23,365 101,060 166,322 –128,987 Net U.S. incurrence of liabilities excluding financial derivatives [net increase in liabilities / financial inflow (+)] Reserve assets 4 Total –14,094 –2,373 122 4,848 52,256 1,835 15,877 4,460 –3,099 –3,583 875 –191 –1,001 –2,782 –956 773 –889 –2,511 –4,159 –877 1,273,038 2,116,304 2,183,538 454,051 318,350 1,386,345 977,073 615,711 1,041,959 977,421 254,145 226,354 165,377 396,083 271,921 283,271 364,518 57,712 340,309 199,041 Direct investment liabilities Portfolio investment liabilities 138,328 832,037 294,289 1,126,735 340,066 1,156,612 332,734 523,683 153,787 357,352 259,345 820,434 257,411 311,626 232,001 746,988 287,163 501,975 131,831 705,030 35,783 147,451 93,715 –15,951 68,674 201,780 88,992 168,695 –105,425 242,627 78,405 88,549 106,473 240,879 52,378 132,976 190,224 101,085 78,164 271,008 Other investment liabilities Financial derivatives other than reserves, net transactions 302,673 ������������������ 695,280 –29,710 686,860 –6,222 –402,367 32,947 –192,789 –44,816 306,566 –14,076 408,036 –35,006 –363,278 7,064 252,821 2,213 140,559 –54,372 70,911 –3,948 148,591 –3,302 –105,077 6,569 138,396 2,894 134,719 6,147 116,317 –4,513 17,166 –24,269 –127,642 –31,737 49,000 –40,149 –150,130 1,784 Net lending (+) or net borrowing (–) from financial account transactions 5 –700,721 –809,148 –617,251 –730,572 –230,962 –436,972 –515,759 –441,249 –395,831 –239,648 –45,448 –27,649 –136,247 –186,486 –114,068 –48,635 –29,186 –47,759 –60,285 –59,739 U.S. official reserve assets, Statistical net discrep(unadancy justed, end of period) 4 31,597 –634 101,008 –45,793 153,201 5,146 –54,219 1,516 –18,658 149,923 57,311 70,192 –41,308 –104,853 –17,582 43,406 68,720 55,379 58,034 49,937 65,127 65,895 70,565 77,648 130,760 132,433 147,953 150,175 144,575 130,090 146,329 145,703 147,747 144,575 144,284 145,176 137,054 130,090 119,270 120,333 4 Consists of monetary gold, special drawing rights (SDRs), the U.S. reserve position in the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and other reserve assets, including foreign currencies. 5 Net lending means that U.S. residents are net suppliers of funds to foreign residents, and net borrowing means the opposite. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 37 CONTENTS TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page Gross Domestic Product ........................................................................................................................................................ 1 Real Gross Domestic Product ................................................................................................................................................ 2 Chained Price Indexes For Gross Domestic Product ............................................................................................................ 2 Gross Domestic Product and Related Price Measures: Indexes and Percent Changes ........................................................... 3 Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Gross Value Added and Price, Costs, and Profits .......................................................... 3 National Income .................................................................................................................................................................... 4 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures ............................................................................................................................ 4 Sources of Personal Income ................................................................................................................................................... 5 Disposition of Personal Income ............................................................................................................................................. 6 Real Farm Income ................................................................................................................................................................. 7 Corporate Profits ................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Real Gross Private Domestic Investment ............................................................................................................................... 9 Real Private Fixed Investment by Type .................................................................................................................................. 10 Business Investment ............................................................................................................................................................... 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force ....................................................................................................................................................... 11 Selected Unemployment Rates .............................................................................................................................................. 12 Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs ................................................................... 13 Nonagricultural Employment ................................................................................................................................................ 14 Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries ................................ 15 Employment Cost Index—Private Industry .......................................................................................................................... 15 Productivity and Related Data, Business and Nonfarm Business Sectors .............................................................................. 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization .................................................................................................................... 17 Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures .......................................................................... 18 New Construction ................................................................................................................................................................. 19 New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates .............................................................................................................................. 19 Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade .................................................................................................. 20 Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders .............................................................................................................. 21 PRICES Producer Prices ...................................................................................................................................................................... 22 Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers ............................................................................................................................. 23 Changes in Producer Prices ................................................................................................................................................... 24 Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers .......................................................................................................... 24 Prices Received and Paid by Farmers ..................................................................................................................................... 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock and Debt Measures .......................................................................................................................................... 26 Components of Money Stock ................................................................................................................................................ 27 Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base ................................................................................................................................. 27 Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks .................................................................................................................................. 28 Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business .............................................................................. 29 Consumer Credit ................................................................................................................................................................... 29 Interest Rates and Bond Yields .............................................................................................................................................. 30 Common Stock Prices and Yields .......................................................................................................................................... 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt ..................................................................................................................................... 32 Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function ............................................................................................................ 33 Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis ................................................................................................................... 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries ........................................................................... 35 U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services .................................................................................................................... 35 U.S. International Transactions ............................................................................................................................................. 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: p Preliminary. r Revised. c Corrected. ... Not available (also, not applicable). NSA Not seasonally adjusted. 38 U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE : 2015 97-622