Full text of Economic Indicators : November 1987
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100th Congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators NOVEMBER 1987 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1987 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland, Chairman LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Vice Chairman SENATE WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) JOHN MELCHER (Montana) JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico) WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) STEVE SYMMS (Idaho) ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York) PETE WILSON (California) HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California) DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin) JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York) FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California) STEPHEN J. SOLARZ (New York) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine) HAMILTON FISH, JR. (New York) J. ALEX McMILLAN (North Carolina) JUDITH DAVISON, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS BERYL W. SPRINKEL, Chairman THOMAS G. MOORE, Member MICHAEL L. MUSSA, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—SlsT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and Home of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce, Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.50 a single copy ($3.13 foreign), or by subscription at $27.00 per year ($33.75 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 This issue includes data available as of November 30, 1987. TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to revised estimates for the third quarter, current-dollar gross national product (GNP) rose 7.0 percent (annual rate) or $75.4 billion. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 4.1 percent and the implicit price deflator rose 2.8 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 4,800 4,800 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 4,400 4,400 — ^--^ GNP IN CURRENT DOLLARS 4,000 v-i ^^ 4,000 '"" 3,600 — f -- — , — — — — — — •*' 3,600 — *"* j^^^-" 3,200 3,200 — ^~ / 2,800 -^ 2,400 ^— -|-\ GNP IN 1982 DOLLARS — 2,800 — ^ 2,400 — — 2,000 2,000 1 1 1 1979 \ \ \ 1980 \ \ \ 1981 1 1 1 1982 1 1 ! 1983 1 1 1 1984 1 I ! 1 1 1 1985 1986 ! ! ! 1987 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross national product Personal consumption tures Gross private domestic investment Government purchases of goods and services Exports and imports of goods and services Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total Total National defense Nondefense State and local Final sales 1979.. 1980 1981... 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 2,508.2 2,732.0 3,052.6 3,166.0 3,405.7 3,772.2 4,010.3 4,235.0 1,566.8 1,732.6 1,915.1 2,050.7 2,234.5 2,430.5 2,629.4 2,799.8 454.8 437.0 515.5 447.3 502.3 664.8 641.6 671.0 18.8 32.1 33.9 26.3 -6.1 58 9 -79.2 - 105.5 291.2 351.0 382.8 361.9 352.5 383.5 369.9 376.2 272.5 318.9 348.9 335.6 358.7 442.4 449.2 481.7 467.8 530.3 588.1 641.7 675.0 735.9 818.6 869.7 178.0 208.1 242.2 272.7 283.5 310.5 353.9 366.2 121.9 142.7 167.5 193.8 214.4 234.3 259.3 277.8 56.1 65.4 74.8 78.9 69.1 76.2 94.6 88.4 289.9 322.2 345.9 369.0 391.5 425.3 464.7 503.5 2,495.2 2,740.3 3,028.6 3,190.5 3,412.8 3,704.5 4,000.3 4,219.3 1982: IV 1983: IV 3,212.5 3,545.8 2,117.0 2,315.8 409.6 579.8 14.1 -25.8 335.9 364.7 321.9 390.5 671.8 676.1 293.2 276.1 205.4 221.5 87.7 54.6 378.7 400.0 3,272.4 3,514.8 1984- I II Ill IV 3,674.9 3,754.2 3,807.9 3,851.8 2,361.1 2,417.0 2,450.3 2,493.4 663.0 664.2 670.3 661.8 -45.7 -62.8 -59.3 -67.9 374.3 383.2 390.8 385.7 420.0 446.1 450.1 453.6 696.5 735.8 746.6 764.5 284.0 315.0 317.0 326.0 226.9 233.0 233.1 244.1 57.1 81.9 83.9 81.9 412.5 420.8 429.6 438.5 3,580.8 3,687.4 3,742.9 3,806.8 1985- I II HI IV 3,921.1 3,973.6 4,042.0 4,104.4 2,549.9 2,602.0 2,665.4 2,700.1 638.6 648.4 628.6 650.8 -51.5 -77.3 -84.7 -103.5 376.3 370.6 364.2 368.7 427.7 447.8 448.9 472.2 784.1 800.5 832.8 857.0 336.3 339.4 361.9 378.0 250.2 253.7 265.1 268.2 86.1 85.7 96.8 109.8 447.8 461.1 470.9 479.0 3,899.8 3,955.1 4,044.4 4,101.9 1986: I II.... Ill IV 4,174.4 4,211.6 4,265.9 4,288.1 2,737.9 2,765.8 2,837.1 2,858.6 683.4 679.4 660.8 660.2 -93.8 - 100.8 -110.5 -116.9 373.5 371.3 376.6 383.3 467.3 472.1 487.1 500.2 846.9 867.2 878.5 886.3 356.7 368.4 371.2 368.6 266.6 278.2 287.6 279.0 90.1 90.2 83.6 89.6 490.2 498.8 507.3 517.7 4,136.1 4,184.0 4,262.4 4,294.6 1987- I II... Ill r 4,377.7 4,445.1 4 5205 2,893.8 2,943.7 3,006.7 699.9 702.6 707.4 -112.2 -118.4 -119.8 397.3 416.5 434.6 509.5 534.8 554.4 896.2 917.1 926.1 366.9 379.6 378.8 287.5 294.5 295.7 79.4 85.1 83.0 529.3 537.6 547.3 4,326.0 4,404.8 4,497.9 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS [Billions of 1982 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Exports and imports of goods and services Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed Change in business inventories Government purchases of goods and services Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total Total National defense Nondefense State and local Final sales 1979 1980 1981.. . 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 3,192.4 3,187.1 3,248.8 3,166.0 3,279.1 3,501.4 3,607.5 3,713.3 2,004.4 2,000.4 2,024.2 2,050.7 2,146.0 2,249.3 2,352.6 2,450.5 389.4 379.2 395.2 366.7 361.2 425.2 454.1 443.8 170.8 137.0 126.5 105.1 149.3 170.9 174.6 196.4 15.0 -6.9 23.9 -24.5 -6.4 62.3 7.4 13.8 3.6 57.0 49.4 26.3 -19.9 -84.0 -108.2 -145.8 356.8 388.9 392.7 361.9 348.1 371.8 365.3 377.4 353.2 332.0 343.4 335.6 368.1 455.8 473.6 523.2 609.1 620.5 629.7 641.7 649.0 677.7 726.9 754.5 236.2 246.9 259.6 272.7 275.1 290.8 324.2 332.5 164.3 171.2 180.3 193.8 206.9 218.5 236.7 250.7 71.9 75.7 79.3 78.9 68.2 72.3 87.5 81.8 373.0 373.6 370.1 369.0 373.9 387.0 402.7 422.1 3,177.4 3,194.0 3,225.0 3,190.5 3,285.5 3,439.1 3,600.1 3,699.5 1982: 1983: IV IV 3,159.3 3,365.1 2,078.7 2,191.9 352.3 390.4 115.8 159.9 -59.3 27.0 11.7 -46.2 336.0 355.5 324.3 401.6 660.1 642.2 289.5 266.0 201.4 211.6 88.2 54.4 370.6 376.2 3,218.6 3,338.1 1984: I 11 Ill IV 3,451.7 3,498.0 3,520.6 3,535.2 2,212.1 2,246.7 2,257.3 2,281.1 401.3 422.0 433.0 444.4 170.5 173.1 170.3 169.6 83.4 63.2 60.9 41.7 -68.6 -87.3 -85.5 -94.8 362.7 369.1 378.7 376.6 431.3 456.5 464.1 471.4 653.0 680.2 684.5 693.2 271.5 295.6 295.5 300.5 214.1 217.8 217.0 225.3 57.4 77.8 78.6 75.2 381.6 384.7 388.9 392.7 3,368.3 3,434.8 3,459.6 3,493.5 1985: IV 3,568.7 3,587.1 3,623.0 3,650.9 2,314.1 2,337.0 2,376.1 2,383.2 440.0 457.2 454.1 465.2 172.6 171.2 174.9 179.7 19.5 17.3 -5.7 -1.6 -81.0 -107.7 -114.9 -129.3 369.7 364.7 360.5 366.5 450.7 472.4 475.4 495.8 703.4 712.1 738.6 753.7 308.4 310.7 332.5 345.3 229.8 232.8 243.3 241.1 78.6 77.8 89.3 104.2 395.0 401.4 406.1 408.4 3,549.2 3,569.9 3,628.7 3,652.5 I II III IV 3,698.8 3,704.7 3,718.0 3,731.5 2,409.7 2,434.3 2,477.5 2,480.5 453.2 441.0 437.7 443.2 185.9 196.5 201.1 202.2 35.3 28.1 6.1 — 14.4 -123.0 -146.8 -161.6 -151.8 371.5 370.2 379.6 388.3 494.4 517.0 541.2 540.1 737.6 751.6 757.2 771.8 322.1 330.6 332.6 344.6 240.0 250.1 259.8 252.7 82.0 80.4 72.8 91.9 415.5 421.0 424.6 427.1 3,663.4 3,676.7 3,711.9 3,745.8 3,772.2 3,795.3 3,833.4 2,475.9 2,487.5 2,517.2 426.0 437.9 464.2 198.2 196.8 193.8 47.6 39.0 24.1 -135.2 -132.7 -134.9 397.8 414.5 433.3 533.0 547.2 568.2 759.6 766.7 769.1 327.3 332.6 333.3 257.4 263.5 265.3 69.9 69.1 67.9 432.3 434.1 435.8 3,724.5 3,756.3 3,809.3 I II m 1986: 1987- I II Ill ' Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1982 — 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Gross private domestic investment Personal consumption expenditures Period Gross national product Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Nonresidential fixed Exports and imports of goods and services Government purchases of goods and services Federal Residential fixed Exports Imports Total National defense Nondefense State and local 1979 1980 1981 1982 .. 1983 1984 1985 1986 78.6 85.7 94.0 100.0 103.9 107.7 111.2 114.1 78.2 86.6 94.6 100.0 104.1 108.1 111.8 114.3 82.1 89.2 95.7 100.0 102.1 103.8 104.5 104.9 80.0 89.4 96.9 100.0 102.1 105.0 107.5 107.1 75.6 83.9 92.6 100.0 106.2 111.6 117.1 122.5 77.8 85.1 93.4 100.0 98.8 97.9 97.5 98.5 81.4 89.4 96.6 100.0 102.2 106.0 108.2 111.1 81.6 90.2 97.5 100.0 101.3 103.2 101.3 99.7 77.1 96.0 101.6 100.0 97.4 97.1 94.8 92.1 75.4 84.3 93.3 100.0 103.1 106.8 109.2 110.2 74.2 83.4 92.9 100.0 103.6 107.2 109.5 110.8 78.0 86.4 94.3 100.0 101.4 105.5 108.1 108.1 77.7 86.2 93.4 100.0 104.7 109.9 115.4 119.3 1982: IV 1983- IV 101.7 105.4 101.8 105.7 100.7 103.1 101.0 103.1 102.7 108.3 100.7 98.3 99.1 103.1 100.0 102.6 99.3 97.2 101.3 103.8 102.0 104.7 99.5 100.3 102.2 106.3 1984: 106.5 107.3 108.2 109.0 106.7 107.6 108.5 109.3 103.2 103.9 104.1 104.1 104.3 104.7 105.2 105.8 109.5 110.9 112.3 113.5 97.9 97.9 97.8 97.9 103.3 106.4 106.9 107.2 103.2 103.8 103.2 102.4 97.4 97.7 97.0 96.2 104.6 106.6 107.3 108.5 106.0 107.0 107.5 108.3 99.5 105.3 106.7 108.9 108.1 109.4 110.5 111.7 1985- I II Ill IV 109.9 110.8 111.6 112.4 110.2 111.3 112.2 113.3 104.6 104.5 104.6 104.3 106.3 107.4 107.6 108.6 114.8 116.3 118.0 119.4 98.0 97.5 97.3 97.1 107.6 107.6 108.0 109.5 101.8 101.6 101.0 100.6 94.9 94.8 94.4 95.2 109.0 109.3 108.8 109.5 108.9 109.0 109.0 111.2 109.5 110.1 108.4 105.4 113.4 114.9 116.0 117.3 1986: I II Ill IV 112.9 113.7 114.7 114.9 113.6 113.6 114.5 115.2 104.5 104.6 105.4 105.2 107.8 106.2 106.8 107.5 120.7 122.0 123.3 124.3 97.2 98.4 99.0 99.2 110.0 111.0 111.3 112.2 100.6 100.3 99.2 98.7 94.5 91.3 90.0 92.6 110.7 111.4 111.6 107.0 111.1 111.2 110.7 110.4 109.8 112.2 115.0 97.5 118.0 118.5 119.5 121.2 1987: I II III ' 116.1 117.1 117.9 116.9 118.3 119.4 105.4 106.1 107.3 109.8 111.7 112.7 125.5 126.9 128.3 99.3 99.2 98.4 113.7 115.7 117.7 99.9 100.5 100.3 95.6 97.7 97.6 112.1 114.1 113.7 111.7 111.8 111.5 113.6 123.1 122.2 122.4 123.8 125.6 I . II III... IV Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Personal consumption expenditures Gross national product Period . IV IT I II III IV 1985: I II in rv 1986- I II m IV 1987: I II -0.2 1.9 -2.5 3.6 6.8 3.0 2.9 .6 7.3 10.7 5.5 2.6 1.7 3.8 2.1 4.1 3.1 5.4 .6 1.4 1.5 4.4 2.5 4.1 8.9 11.7 3.7 7.6 10.8 6.3 5.6 4.2 12.4 15.4 8.9 5.8 4.7 7.4 5.5 7.1 6.3 7.0 3.6 5.3 2.1 8.6 6.3 7.0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1982: 19831984: Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars . . . . Implicit price deflator Chain price index 9.0 9.4 6.3 4.1 3.9 3.5 2.4 4.1 3.9 4.5 3.8 3.4 3.1 4.0 3.8 2.8 3.4 1.7 1.9 2.6 2.0 4.2 3.7 3.3 9.0 9.7 6.4 3.9 3.7 3.2 2.6 3.6 4.7 4.2 3.0 3.4 3.0 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.9 1.8 2.9 3.6 .7 4.2 3.5 2.8 NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter. Fixedweighted price index (1982 wsights) Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars 9.3 9.3 6.2 4.1 4.0 3.6 2.7 4.0 4.0 4.5 3.8 3.4 3.2 4.1 3.7 2.9 3.4 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.3 4.5 4.1 3.3 10.6 10.5 7.1 9.0 8.8 8.2 6.5 10.3 9.7 8.1 9.8 5.6 7.2 9.4 8.4 10.1 5.3 5.7 4.1 10.7 3.1 5.0 7.1 8.8 -0.2 1.2 1.3 4.6 4.8 4.6 4.2 5.3 5.5 3.7 6.4 1.9 4.3 5.9 4.0 6.9 1.2 4.5 4.1 7.3 .5 1.9 4.9 Implicit price deflator 10.7 9.2 5.7 4.1 3.8 3.4 2.2 4.4 4.3 3.8 3.4 3.4 3.0 3.3 4.1 3.3 4.0 1.1 .0 3.2 2.5 6.0 4.9 3.8 Chain price index Fixedweighted price index (1982 weights) 10.9 9.2 5.7 4.2 3.9 3.6 2.5 4.8 4.1 4.3 3.2 3.6 3.1 3.5 4.4 3.2 4.2 1.5 .3 3.6 3.0 5.5 5.2 3.9 10.5 9.0 5.6 4.2 4.0 3.7 2.6 4.8 4.1 4.5 3.2 3.8 3.2 3.4 4.5 3.3 4.2 1.7 .3 3.6 3.0 5.7 5.2 3.9 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS-OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dollars) 1 Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars) Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1982: IV 1983: IV 1984: I II... Ill IV 1985- I II Ill IV 1986- I II Ill IV 1987- I II Ill » 1 Current dollars 1982 dollars 1,540.8 1,738.4 1,782.2 1,914.2 2,146.7 2,282.8 2 376 1 1,779.4 2,012.5 2,080.6 2,139.9 2,164.4 2,201.8 2,230.9 2,266.2 2 312 4 2,321.8 2,353.3 2,358.6 2,387.7 2,404.7 2,434.8 2,465.4 2,515.9 1,807.9 1,837.2 1,782.2 1,866.0 2,036.5 2,127.1 2,182.2 1,760.2 1,940.5 1,996.7 2,035.2 2,044.7 2,069.5 2,091.1 2,115.1 2,148.7 2,153.5 2,176.7 2,171.9 2,180.8 2,199.3 2,207.6 2,219.9 2,249.8 Total cost and profit 2 Indirect business taxes 3 0.852 .946 1.000 1.026 1.054 1.073 1.089 1.011 1.037 1.042 1.051 1.059 1.064 1.067 1.071 1.076 1.078 1.081 1.086 1.095 1.093 1.103 1.111 1.118 0.095 .109 .125 .123 .118 .119 .121 .131 .120 .118 .117 .118 .118 .119 .119 .118 .120 .119 .121 .122 .123 .123 .124 .123 0.077 .090 .094 .098 .100 .103 .104 .096 .098 .098 .100 .101 .102 .102 .104 .102 .103 .104 .101 .106 .104 .105 .107 .108 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1982 dol- lars. 2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment 3 4 Compensation of employees Net interest 0.581 .632 .676 .679 .687 .702 .715 .685 .680 .681 .682 .691 .694 .698 .701 .699 .709 .709 .714 .717 .720 .724 .728 .728 0.031 .037 .043 .037 .039 .043 .045 .042 .037 .037 .038 .041 .042 .043 .043 .043 .044 .045 .046 .046 .045 .045 .046 .047 Total 0.068 .078 .063 .089 .109 .107 .103 .057 .103 .109 .114 .107 .107 .106 .106 .114 .103 .104 .104 .104 .102 .106 .106 .112 Profits tax liability 0.037 .035 .026 .032 .036 .033 .036 .023 .036 .040 .039 .034 .032 .033 .031 .034 .033 .033 .034 .037 .040 .045 .047 .050 Profits after tax 4 0.031 .044 .037 .057 .073 .074 .068 .034 .066 .069 .075 .073 .075 .072 .075 .080 .070 .071 .069 .068 .062 .061 .059 .063 Output per hour of all employees (1982 dollars) Compensation per hour of all employees (dollars) 17.096 17.194 17.318 17.867 18.288 18.674 18.969 17.382 18.029 18.221 18.312 18.255 18.359 18.458 18.588 18.849 18.787 18.941 18.930 18.974 19.073 18.933 18.964 9.939 10.861 11.699 12.124 12.570 13.103 13.566 11.914 12.261 12.409 12.494 12.623 12.746 12.883 13.022 13.173 13.324 13.437 13.525 13.608 13.724 13.708 13.798 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period National income Compensation of employees1 Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capita] consumption adjustments Farm 1982 1983 1984 1985... 1986 1982- IV 1983- IV 1984- I 2,518.4 2,719.5 3,028.6 3,229.9 3,422.0 2,548.2 2,851.5 2,962.1 3,009.0 3,047.3 3,096.1 3,156.5 3,204.4 3,254.4 3,304.4 3,364.2 3,414.1 3,438.7 3,471.0 3,548.3 3,593.3 "3,654.2 n Ill IV 1985- I II III IV 1986- I n Ill rv 1987: I II HI r . 1 1,907.0 2,020.7 2,213.9 2,370.8 2,504.9 1,931.1 2,092.7 2,152.9 2,195.2 2,234.9 2,272.7 2,314.9 2,351.5 2,386.3 2,430.5 2,464.8 2,487.6 2,515.1 2,552.0 2,589.9 2,623.4 2,663.8 Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment Nonfarm 13.6 13.2 8.5 9.0 16.7 15.8 12.4 12.3 9.3 6.9 5.6 7.3 9.1 9.3 10.1 14.0 17.4 17.2 18.4 20.0 18.9 17.3 150.9 178.4 204.0 227.6 252.6 159.8 188.6 197.1 202.0 207.5 209.7 220.4 224.2 229.5 236.3 242.8 250.1 256.2 261.2 269.7 275.8 282.1 24.6 12.4 30.5 29.7 37.2 28.5 19.3 44.3 26.1 23.3 28.1 31.7 32.2 22.9 31.7 28.0 48.1 36.3 36.6 51.3 47.3 39.3 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capita! consumption adjustment Total Total 150.0 213.7 266.9 277.6 284.4 146.1 248.5 262.7 275.5 262.6 266.9 265.6 274.2 292.8 277.8 288.0 282.3 286.4 281.1 294.0 296.8 "313.7 Profits before tax Inventoryvaluation adjustment 169.6 207.6 240.0 224.8 231.9 164.1 231.5 253.7 251.4 228.5 226.1 217.6 218.0 230.2 233.5 218.9 224.4 236.3 247.9 257.0 268.7 "282.1 -10.4 -10.9 -5.8 -.7 6.5 -13.4 81 -15.5 -5.0 -1.1 -1.6 15 1.8 6.5 -9.8 17.8 11.3 6.0 89 -11.3 -20.0 -16.1 159.2 196.7 234.2 224.1 238.4 150.7 223.4 238.2 246.5 227.4 224.6 216.1 219.8 236.8 223.7 236.7 235.6 242.4 239.0 245.7 248.8 "266.0 Capital consumption adjustment — 9.2 17.0 32.7 53.5 46.0 -4.5 25.1 24.5 29.0 35.2 42.3 49.5 54.4 56.0 54.2 51.3 46.7 44.0 42.1 48.2 48.0 47.7 Net interest 272.3 281.0 304.8 315.3 326.1 266.9 290.2 292.8 301.0 312.2 313.1 316.5 313.2 313.7 317.9 326.6 328.7 327.5 321.7 323.6 331.1 338.0 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nondurable goods Durable goods Period 1982 1983.. . 1984 1985.... 1986 1982- IV 1983- IV 1984- I II III IV 1985- I II Ill IV 1986- I II III IV 1987- I II Ill ... . T ... Total personal consumption expenditures Total durable goods 2,050.7 2,234.5 2,430.5 2,629.4 2,799.8 2,117.0 2,315.8 2,361.1 2,417.0 2,450.3 2,493.4 2,549.9 2,602.0 2,665.4 2,700.1 2,737.9 2,765.8 2,837.1 2,858.6 2,893.8 2,943.7 3,006.7 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 252.7 289.1 335.5 368.7 402.4 263.8 310.0 322.7 335.1 337.7 346.7 358.2 362.4 383.7 370.5 375.9 386.4 427.6 419.8 396.1 409.0 434.8 Motor vehicles and parts 108.9 130.4 157.4 177.6 194.9 115.7 144.4 151.1 157.8 158.6 162.3 171.1 173.3 191.9 174.1 177.4 184.2 217.0 201.2 177.6 189.6 212.4 Furniture and household equipment 95.7 107.1 118.8 128.7 139.9 99.1 112.4 115.2 117.9 119.5 122.7 125.0 127.0 129.5 133.5 134.7 138.3 142.9 143.8 146.0 146.0 148.4 Other 48.1 51.6 59.3 62.4 67.6 49.0 53.2 56.4 59.3 59.7 61.8 62.1 62.1 62.4 62.9 63.8 64.0 67.8 74.8 72.5 73.5 74.0 Total nondurable goods 771.0 816.7 867.3 913.1 939.4 786.6 837.9 849.9 866.9 872.8 879.6 894.4 910.4 918.4 929.3 936.8 934.3 940.0 946.3 969.9 982.1 987.2 Food 398.8 421.9 448.5 472.8 497.8 407.0 430.8 438.3 445.8 453.6 456.1 463.5 471.2 474.9 481.7 489.4 494.7 499.6 507.5 514.8 515.0 514.7 Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil 124.4 135.1 146.7 157.2 167.5 126.5 141.1 143.0 147.3 146.8 149.8 153.2 155.8 158.8 160.9 163.4 167.2 169.8 169.6 174.0 175.8 178.8 89.1 90.2 90.0 92.6 75.3 89.8 91.9 90.8 91.3 88.9 89.0 90.6 94.3 93.5 92.1 87.7 74.4 70.6 68.4 75.8 80.6 82.4 Other Services Retail sales of new passenger cars (millions of units) Domestics 158.7 169.5 182.1 190.5 198.8 163.4 174.0 177.8 182.5 183.5 184.7 187.2 189.1 191.2 194.5 196.3 198.0 200.0 200.8 205.3 210.7 211.3 1,027.0 1,128.7 1,227.6 1,347.5 1,458.0 1,066.5 1,167.9 1,188.6 1,215.1 1,239.7 1,267.1 1,297.3 1,329.2 1,363.3 1,400.3 1,425.2 1,445.1 1,469.5 1,492.4 1,527.7 1,552.6 1,584.7 5.8 6.8 8.0 8.2 8.2 6.0 7.4 8.1 8.1 7.9 7.7 8.3 8.1 9.3 7.1 7.7 7.9 9.5 7.8 6.7 7.0 8.0 Imports 22 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.2 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.2 2.9 3.1 3.5 3.5 2.8 3.0 3.6 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $63.3 billion (annual rate) in October, following a rise of $21.1 billion in September. The increases were affected by Federal subsidy payments to farm proprietors, which rose $36.2 billion in October, following a decline of $2.8 billion in September. Excluding subsidy payments, personal income increased $27.1 billion in October and $23.9 billion in September. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,800 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,800 3,200 3,200 1,600 1,600 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 800 800 400 400 200 200 1987 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1986: Oct Nov Dec 1987: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Julv r. Aug * Sept r Oct p Total personal income Wage and salary disbursements Proprietors' income 3 Other labor income * 2 Farm Personal dividend income Personal interest income Transfer payments 5 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance Nonfarm personal income 6 2,033.9 2,258.4 2,520.9 2,670.8 2,838.6 3,108.7 3,327.0 3,534.3 1,252.1 1,372.0 1,510.3 1,586.1 1,676.6 1,838.6 1,974.9 2,089.1 122.7 138.4 150.3 163.6 173.6 182.9 192.3 201.1 31.7 20.5 30.7 24.6 12.4 30.5 29.7 37.2 160.1 160.1 156.1 150.9 178.4 204.0 227.6 252.6 5.6 6.6 13.3 13.6 13.2 8.5 9.0 16.7 48.1 52.9 61.3 63.9 68.7 75.5 76.3 81.2 221.4 271.9 335.4 369.7 393.1 444.7 476.5 497.6 273.1 324.7 368.1 410.6 442.6 456.6 489.7 518.3 81.0 88.6 104.5 112.3 120.1 132.7 148.9 159.6 1,983.1 2,215.8 2,465.6 2,618.7 2,799.0 3,052.1 3,273.5 3,475.2 3,577.5 3,590.3 3,613.0 2,119.4 2,131.5 2,134.4 203.7 204.4 205.1 33.6 31.1 45.2 259.3 261.0 263.4 82.6 82.9 83.2 497.0 496.7 496.6 525.6 526.3 528.0 2,150.2 2,166.4 2,173.1 2,181.5 2,193.7 2,198.9 2,209.7 2,228.8 2,241.4 2,256.7 205.9 206.7 207.4 210.0 209.0 209.6 210.4 211.1 211.9 212.7 42.0 56.2 55.6 58.0 41.6 42.3 43.5 36.7 37.6 71.7 265.6 270.2 273.2 274.1 275.8 277.7 279.9 282.6 283.9 287.8 83.9 84.4 85.0 85.3 86.5 87.0 87.9 88.8 89.4 90.0 498.1 499.8 501.6 503.8 506.3 508.8 512.1 516.4 521.3 526.8 532.2 534.5 534.3 537.3 545.4 541.7 545.2 545.2 546.6 550.2 161.3 162.1 162.1 165.9 167.0 167.3 167.7 168.6 168.9 169.6 170.8 171.5 171.9 3,522.5 3,538.0 3,546.7 3,631.5 3,671.2 3,683.4 3,701.9 3,708.5 3,715.3 3,736.8 3,756.1 3,777.2 3,840.5 17.7 18.4 19.2 19.5 20.0 20.4 19.7 18.9 18.2 17.8 17.3 16.8 16.5 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. 2 Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Nonfarm Rental income of persons 4 4 3,568.4 3,594.1 3,607.2 3,622.8 3,645.1 3,651.2 3,673.4 3,697.5 3,717.8 3,746.9 With capital consumption adjustment. Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor and agricultural net interest. 5 6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable personal income rose in the third quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 3,000 3,000 2,600 2,600 2,200 2,200 1,800 1,800 1,400 1,400 1,000 I I I I I I I I I I I 1,000 DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 14,000 DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 14,000 6,000 6,000 4,000 4,000 1987 1979 ' SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Personal Less: Personal tax and nontax payments F 1 Disposable income Less: Personal outlays L Equals: Personal saving Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (billions) Per capita disposable personal income Current dollars Billions of dollars 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 2,033.9 2,258.4 2,520.9 2,670.8 2,838.6 3,108.7 3,327.0 3,534.3 304.7 340.5 393.3 409.3 410.5 440.2 485.9 512.2 1,729.3 1,917.9 2,127.6 2,261.4 2,428.1 2,668.6 2,841.1 3,022.1 1982 dollars Per capita persona! consumption expenditures Current dollars 1982 dollars 118.0 136.8 159.4 153.9 130.6 164.1 127.1 130.6 2,212.6 2,214.3 2,248.6 2,261.5 2,331.9 2,469.8 2,542.2 2,645.1 7,682 8 421 9,243 9,724 10 340 11,257 11,872 12 508 9,722 9,769 9,724 9 930 10,419 10,622 10,947 6,960 7,607 8,320 8,818 9,515 10,253 10,987 11,588 8,783 8,794 8,818 9,139 9,489 9,830 10,142 9,749 10,151 10,359 10,378 10,446 10,491 10,513 10,705 10,592 10,679 10,842 11,024 10,968 10,956 11,008 10,865 10,945 9,068 9,825 9,996 10,210 10,324 10,479 10,694 10,888 11,124 11,239 11,371 11,461 11,729 11,789 11,910 12,090 12,318 8,904 9,299 9,365 9,491 9,511 9,587 9,705 9,779 9,916 9,920 10,008 10,088 10,242 10,229 10,190 10,216 10,312 9,829 Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population, including Armed Forces abroad (thousands) 2 Percent Dollars 1,611.3 1,781.1 1,968.1 2,107.5 2,297.4 2,504.5 2,714.1 2,891.5 Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income 8,904 1.0 — 1.1 .5 5 2.1 4.9 1.9 3.1 6.8 5.4 6.1 4.5 4.3 6.8 7.1 7.5 225,106 227,754 230,182 232,549 234,829 237,051 239,323 241,620 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1982: IV 1983: IV 1984: I n III.... IV 1985: I II III.... IV 1986: I II III.... IV 1987: I II r Ill .. 2,729.2 2,941.8 3,034.1 3,074.8 3,137.8 3,188.3 3,259.2 3,304.4 3,338.2 3,406.4 3,463.4 3,526.6 3,553.6 3,593.6 3,662.0 3,708.6 3,756.7 411.1 413.9 422.3 432.1 446.7 459.7 497.0 455.9 491.0 499.7 497.4 504.2 515.3 532.0 536.1 578.0 565.6 2,318.1 2,527.9 2,611.8 2,642.8 2,691.1 2,728.6 2,762.2 2,848.4 2,847.2 2,906.6 2,966.0 3,022.4 3,038.2 3,061.6 3,125.9 3,130.6 3,191.1 2,174.9 2,382.5 2,430.7 2,490.0 2,525.9 2,571.3 2,631.0 2,685.6 2,751.5 2,788.1 2,827.6 2,856.4 2,929.4 2,952.6 2,987.5 3,037.4 3,102.1 143.1 145.4 181.1 152.8 165.2 157.3 131.2 162.8 95.7 118.5 138.4 166.0 108.9 109.0 138.4 93.2 89.0 2,276.1 2,392.7 2,446.9 2,456.6 2,479.2 2,496.3 2,506.8 2,558.4 2,538.2 2,565.5 2,610.5 2,660.2 2,653.2 2,656.7 2,674.6 2,645.5 2,671.6 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personl transfer payments to foreigners (net). 9,929 10,725 11,057 11,164 11,339 11,467 11,584 11,919 11,882 12,099 12,318 12,525 12,560 12,626 12,865 12,858 13,073 1.2 6.2 9.1 5.8 8.5 .7 2.6 1.7 6.9 5.8 6.1 5.8 .8 7.5 -4.2 3.3 6.2 6.9 -2.0 -.4 1.9 -5.1 3.0 4.8 5.7 3.4 4.1 4.7 5.5 3.6 3.6 4.4 3.0 2.8 233,466 235,707 236,203 236,720 237,333 237,946 238,452 238,977 239,618 240,246 240,782 241,313 241,896 242,489 242,971 243,480 244,095 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Cens FARM INCOME In the third quarter, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income rose $4.0 billion (annual rate) and net farm income rose $2.7 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO S CALE) 240 200 BILLIC NS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 240 200 ^- 160 ~~~ 1 ' .r, ' ^^ 1 ^ ^~-v 160 _. \ 120 120 GROJ S FARM INCO WE 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 10 10 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from farming Net farm income Gross farm income Period Cash marketing receipts Total l Total 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1984: I II III.. TV 1985- I II.. Ill TV 1986: I II III TV 1987- I II III" 149.3 166.3 163.5 153.1 174.7 166.0 159.5 176.8 169.9 176.6 175.6 168.4 164.1 159.6 172.1 149.8 168.8 154.8 164.8 167.3 153.7 157.7 139.7 141.6 142.6 136.6 142.3 144.2 135.2 137.8 142.2 147.0 142.3 137.9 138.0 144.8 156.1 134.4 130.6 135.0 140.7 130.0 128.1 137.3 Livestock and products 68.0 69.2 70.3 69.4 72.9 69.8 71.6 75.8 72.0 72.0 71.8 69.9 69.0 68.9 71.4 68.3 66.8 77.8 73.3 72.6 72.0 78.7 1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. Crops 71.7 72.5 72.3 67.1 69.4 74.4 63.6 62.0 70.1 74.9 70.4 68.0 68.9 76.0 84.7 66.0 63.8 57.2 67.4 57.4 56.1 58.6 3 Value of inventory changes 2 -6.3 6.5 14 -10.9 6.2 -2.7 33 2.1 7.3 8.8 6.6 1.1 24 -4.2 51 42 -3.5 30 -2.4 20 -1.7 -.9 Production expenses Current dollars 133.1 139.4 140.0 140.4 142.7 133.7 122.1 143.1 143.6 142.9 141.1 138.3 135.3 132.2 129.0 125.7 122.9 120.6 119.0 117.9 117.0 118.5 1982 dollars 3 16.1 26.9 23.5 12.7 32.0 32.3 37.5 33.6 26.3 33.7 34.5 30.1 28.7 27.3 43.1 24.1 45.9 34.2 45.8 49.4 36.6 39.3 Income in current dollars divided by the GNP implicit price deflator (1982= 100). NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Corporation loans and operator households. Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce. 18.8 28.6 23.5 12.2 29.6 29.0 32.9 31.6 24.4 31.2 31.8 27.3 25.9 24.4 38.4 21.4 40.3 29.8 39.9 42.5 31.2 33.3 CORPORATE PROFITS In the third quarter, according to preliminary estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $13.4 billion (annual rate) and after-tax profits rose $7.0 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320 320 280 280 240 240 200 200 160 120 40 1979 1987 1980 COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment1 Profits after tax Domestie industries Nonfinancial Period Total 2 Total Financial Total 3 Manufacturing Profits before tax Tax liability Wholesale and retail trade Total Dividends Undistributed profits Inventory valuation adjustment 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 194.0 202.3 159.2 196.7 234.2 224.1 238.4 159.6 173.8 131.2 166.6 203.3 193.6 207.2 21.0 16.5 11.8 18.1 13.0 18.4 26.1 138.6 157.3 119.4 148.5 190.3 175.2 181.1 77.1 88.5 58.0 70.1 88.8 72.2 69.4 21.6 32.5 34.6 38.9 51.2 51.4 52.1 237.1 226.5 169.6 207.6 240.0 224.8 231.9 84.8 81.1 63.1 77.2 93.9 96.7 105.0 152.3 145.4 106.5 130.4 146.1 128.1 126.8 54.7 63.6 66.9 71.5 79.0 81.3 86.8 97.6 81.8 39.6 58.9 67.0 46.8 40.0 -43.1 -24.2 — 10.4 -10.9 -5.8 -.7 6.5 1982- IV 1983: IV 150.7 223.4 121.6 190.7 18.7 15.5 102.9 175.2 46.8 88.6 33.6 43.1 164.1 231.5 59.8 88.1 104.3 143.4 68.5 73.9 35.8 69.5 - 13.4 -8.1 1984- I II Ill IV.. 238.2 246.5 227.4 224.6 207.8 216.6 194.8 193.9 14.5 13.1 10.8 13.6 193.3 203.5 184.0 180.3 95.0 97.0 83.3 79.8 48.0 52.7 52.2 51.8 253.7 251.4 228.5 226.1 101.2 100.3 87.2 87.0 152.5 151.2 141.4 139.2 76.6 78.9 79.8 80.8 76.0 72.3 61.5 58.4 — 15.5 -5.0 -1.1 -1.6 1985- I II III . 216.1 219.8 236.8 223.7 187.1 189.2 208.3 189.7 15.3 19.1 18.4 20.8 171.8 170.1 189.9 168.9 67.8 68.4 80.1 72.4 52.0 52.8 55.7 45.0 217.6 218.0 230.2 233.5 94.0 93.2 100.5 99.1 123.6 124.8 129.7 134.4 81.2 81.3 81.2 81.7 42.4 43.5 48.5 52.7 -1.5 1.8 6.5 -9.8 236.7 235.6 242.4 239.0 202.3 207.0 210.2 209.3 26.2 26.9 25.2 26.1 176.2 180.0 185.1 183.2 61.9 72.5 68.0 75.4 55.8 48.2 54.6 49.7 218.9 224.4 236.3 247.9 98.1 102.1 106.1 113.9 120.9 122.3 130.2 134.0 84.3 86.6 87.7 88.6 36.6 35.7 42.5 45.4 17.8 11.3 6.0 -8.9 245.7 248.8 266.0 213.1 215.8 232.3 27.6 27.8 27.4 185.5 188.0 205.0 75.4 85.5 56.2 45.2 257.0 268.7 282.1 128.0 134.2 140.6 129.0 134.5 141.5 90.3 92.4 95.2 38.7 42.1 46.3 -11.3 -20.0 r -16.1 IV 1986- I II Ill IV 1987- I II III f 1 2 3 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital eonsumptid adjustments. Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. Includes industries not shown separately. NOTE.—Corporate profits and related measures for 1986 reflect retroactive provisions of the Tax Reform Act of 19S(>. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to revised estimates for the third quarter, nonresidential fixed investment rose $22.2 billion (annual rate) while residential investment rose $0.4 billion. There was a $22.5 billion increase in inventories following an increase of $40.3 billion in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 800 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 800 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 700 700 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 600 600 500 500 400 400 - NONRESIDENTIALFIXED INVESTMENT 300 300 RESIDENTIAL . FIXED INVESTMENT _ 200 100 200 100 CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES ± J I -100 1979 1980 1981 1982 I 1 I I I I 1983 1984 I I I 1985 SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1986 I I I 1-100 1987 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Change in business inventories Fixed investment Period 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984... 1985 1986 1982: IV 1983- IV 1984: I II Ill IV 1985: I II. . Ill IV. 1986: 1 II III IV 1987: I II Ill r Gross private domestic investment 454.8 437.0 515.5 447.3 502.3 664.8 641.6 671.0 409.6 579.8 663.0 664.2 670.3 661.8 638.6 648.4 628.6 650.8 683.4 679.4 660.8 660.2 699.9 702.6 707.4 Nonresidential Total Total 441.9 445.3 491.5 471.8 509.4 597.1 631.6 655.2 469.5 548.8 568.9 597.5 605.4 616.8 617.3 629.9 631.0 648.3 645.1 651.9 657.3 666.6 648.2 662.3 684.9 302.8 322.8 369.2 366.7 356.9 416.0 442.6 436.9 354.9 383.9 392.7 413.2 423.3 435.0 431.5 445.6 442.0 451.5 440.7 433.8 433.5 439.7 422.8 434.6 456.8 Structures 99.5 113.9 138.5 143.3 124.0 141.1 152.5 137.4 137.6 127.4 133.0 141.3 143.6 146.6 150.6 154.4 152.9 152.1 149.6 135.9 131.1 132.9 128.7 129.7 136.6 Producers' durable equipment 203.3 208.9 230.7 223.4 232.8 274.9 290.1 299.5 217.3 256.5 259.7 271.9 279.7 288.4 280.8 291.3 289.1 299.3 291.0 297.9 302.4 306.7 294.1 304.9 320.2 Residential 139.1 122.5 122.3 105.1 152.5 181.1 189.0 218.3 114.7 164.9 176.2 184.3 182.1 181.8 185.8 184.3 189.0 196.8 204.4 218.1 223.8 226.9 225.4 227.7 228.1 Total 13.0 -8.3 24.0 -24.5 -7.1 67.7 10.0 15.7 -59.9 31.0 94.1 66.7 65.0 45.0 21.4 18.5 -2.4 2.5 38.3 27.5 3.5 -6.4 51.6 40.3 22.5 Nonfarm 7.9 -2.4 18.3 -23.1 .4 60.5 13.6 16.8 -51.1 21.3 71.4 63.7 65.8 41.3 17.7 13.7 5.2 17.8 38.5 24.5 -.9 5.1 48.7 27.3 8.6 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT According to the Commerce Department July-August 1987 survey, business spending for new plant and equipment in 1987 is expected to be 2.5 percent above the 1986 level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 400 400 300 300 ALL INDUSTRIES 200 200 NONMANUFACTURING -*/ 100 100 MANUFACTURING 80 80 60 60 40 40 I 1979 1 I I I I I 1982 1981 1980 I I I 1984 1983 I I 1985 _!/ SURVEYED QUARTERLY 2/SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE I I I I 1 I 1987 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Addenda Industries surveyed quarterly Manufacturing Period 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 4 . 1985: I n III. IV . 1986- I n m IV 1987: I II 4 m iv 4 Nonmanufacturing All industries Total 254.96 282.80 315.22 310.58 304.78 354.44 387.13 379.47 389.07 95.92 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.48 142.69 146.40 48.50 55.36 59.81 55.35 53.08 66.24 73.27 69.14 71.23 47.42 56.96 66.73 65.33 63.12 72.58 80.21 73.56 75.17 375.33 388.16 390.05 394.98 147.85 154.94 154.79 156.35 70.85 74.53 73.03 74.67 380.04 376.21 375.50 386.09 145.11 142.19 139.43 144.07 374.23 377.65 398.04 406.37 140.65 140.79 150.47 153.67 Nonmanufaeturing Manufacturing Surveyed quarterly Mining Transportation Public utilities Commercial and other 159.04 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.65 236.78 242.68 12.81 15.99 21.39 20.05 15.19 16.86 15.88 11.22 10.75 16.05 16.60 15.84 14.79 13.97 16.52 18.02 18.80 19.52 35.63 37.74 41.21 45.43 44.96 47.48 48.81 46.38 44.53 94.56 100.14 110.24 109.63 114.45 134.75 150.94 160.38 167.89 77.00 80.41 81.76 81.67 227.48 233.22 235.26 238.64 15.98 16.70 15.95 14.89 16.92 17.49 18.56 19.12 48.61 48.54 48.44 49.65 145.97 150.49 152.32 154.98 147.85 154.94 154.79 156.35 227.48 233.22 235.26 238.64 68.71 68.56 69.42 69.87 76.39 73.62 70.01 74.20 234.93 234.03 236.07 242.02 13.13 11.29 10.14 10.31 18.50 18.40 18.81 19.50 47.17 46.43 45.81 46.12 156.14 157.91 161.31 166.08 145.11 142.19 139.43 144.07 234.93 234.03 236.07 242.02 70.47 68.76 73.24 72.44 70.18 72.03 77.23 81.22 233.58 236.87 247.57 252.70 10.31 11.02 11.06 10.60 18.98 17.67 20.45 20.96 43.60 43.48 45.59 45.45 160.70 164.69 170.46 175.70 140.65 140.79 150.47 153.67 233.58 236.87 247.57 252.70 Durable goods Nondurable goods Total 1 1 Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and real estate, which, effective with the April-May 1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ("nonmanufacturing surveyed annually") for data for these industries. 2 "All industries" plus the part of nonmanufacturing that is surveyed annually. 10 Total nonfarm business 2 284.94 314.47 349.26 347.47 343.35 398.99 431.94 427.23 95.92 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.48 142.69 146.40 Total 189.02 202.15 222.72 226.79 227.15 260.16 278.46 284.54 159.04 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.65 236.78 242.68 Surveyed annually 3 29.98 31.68 34.04 36.89 38.56 44.55 44.81 47.75 3 Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; iocial services and membership organizations; and real estate. 4 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late July-August 1987, corrected for biaiises. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE In October, seasonally adjusted civilian employment rose 415,000 and unemployment rose 85,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 124 MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 124 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 120 120 116 116 112 112 108 108 • CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE- 104 104 100 100 CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT 96 96 X /tf 12 8 UNEMPLOYMENT 4 ii 0 Illllllllll Illllllllll 1 980 1 979 1981 1982 Illllllllll 1983 1984 Illllllllll mi MM Ml 1985 MM l l l l l l l 1986 1987 *16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Period 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986*. . 1986: Oct* Nov Dec 1987: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Resident Armed Forces NSA 166,460 169,349 171,775 173,939 175,891 178,080 179,912 182,293 182,935 183,114 183,297 183,575 183,738 183,915 184,079 184,259 184,421 184,605 184,738 184,904 185,052 1,597 1,604 1,645 1,668 1,676 1,697 1,706 1,706 1,749 1,751 1,750 1,748 1,740 1,736 1,735 1,726 1,718 1,720 1,736 1,743 1,741 T , , including resident Armed Forces 106,559 108,544 110,315 111,872 113,226 115,241 117,167 119,540 120,163 120,426 120,336 120,782 121,089 120,958 121,070 121,719 121,235 121,672 122,038 121,604 122,102 Employment including resident Armed Forces 100,421 100,907 102,042 101,194 102,510 106,702 108,856 111,303 111,941 112,183 112,387 112,759 113,122 113,104 113,570 114,173 113,975 114,447 114,817 114,515 114,928 Nonagricultural Civilian labor force 104,962 106,940 108,670 110,204 111,550 113,544 115,461 117,834 118,414 118,675 118,586 119,034 119,349 119,222 119,335 119,993 119,517 119,952 120,302 119,861 120,361 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulitirne work, etc. 2 Labor force as percent of noninstitutional population (both including resident Armed Forces). 3 Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population. Unemployment Civilian employment Noninstitutional population including resident Armed Forces NSA Total 98,824 99,303 100,397 99,526 100,834 105,005 107,150 109,597 110,192 110,432 110,637 111,011 111,382 111,368 111,835 112,447 112,257 112,727 113,081 112,772 113,187 Agricultural 3,347 3,364 3,368 3,401 3,383 3,321 3,179 3,163 3,162 3,215 3,161 3,145 3,236 3,284 3,290 3,335 3,178 3,219 3,092 3,170 3,283 Total 95,477 95,938 97,030 96,125 97,450 101,685 103,971 106,434 107,030 107,217 107,476 107,866 108,146 108,084 108,545 109,112 109,079 109,508 109,989 109,602 109,903 Part-time for economic reasons * 3,373 4,064 4,499 5,852 5,997 5,512 5,334 5,345 5,450 5,319 5,342 5,201 5,459 5,164 5,110 5,029 4,918 5,235 4,998 4,968 5,101 Total 6,137 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,237 8,222 8,243 7,949 8,023 7,967 7,854 7,500 7,546 7,260 7,224 7,221 7,089 7,174 15 weeks and over 1,241 1,871 2,285 3,485 4,210 2,737 2,305 2,232 2,168 2,217 2,171 2,200 2,131 2,050 2,075 2,101 2,055 1,907 1,884 1,920 1,759 Labor force participation rate (percent) Total 2 64.0 64.1 64.2 64.3 64.4 64.7 65.1 65.6 65.7 65.8 65.7 65.8 65.9 65.8 65.8 66.1 65.7 65.9 66.1 65.8 66.0 Civilian •*3 63.7 63.8 63.9 64.0 64.0 64.4 64.8 65.3 65.4 65.4 65.3 65.5 65.6 65.4 65.4 65.7 65.4 65.6 65.7 65.4 65.7 * Data beginning January 1986 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of changi estimation procedures. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In October, the seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage point to 5.9 percent; the civilian unemployment rate also rose 0.1 percentage point, to 6.0 percent. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 25 25 * N/V\ \ 20 V '"V TEENAGERS (16-19) \ 20 " VA/I X V X 15 BLACK v ^J\ A, / * r\h • - V\ f"\^ *•' l ( I 15 "~^X '\\^ BLACK 10 10 ALL CIVILIAN WORKERS "*N N., ^v» / --„ —^-^^ Illllllllll 1983 1984 WOMEN 20 YEARS AND OVER V ^ ^^T^ / WHITE Illllllllll «»<*_ ;• — - -»——» •^^ MEN 20 YEARS AND OVER Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 1986 1985 1987 1983 Illllllllll Illllllllll 1984 1985 Illllllllll 1986 Illllllllll 1987 "UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) Period Unemployment rate, all workers l 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 ... 5.8 7.0 1986: Oct Nov Dec 1987: Jan Feb Mar Apr May 7.5 9.5 9.5 7.4 7.1 6.9 June .... July Aug Sept Oct By sex and age All civilian workers 5.8 7.1 7.6 9.7 9.6 7.5 Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over 4.2 5.9 6.3 5.7 6.4 6.8 8.3 8.1 6.8 By selected groups By race Both sexes 16-19 years Black White and Black other Experienced wage and salary workers 5.1 6.3 6.7 8.6 8.4 6.5 6.2 6.0 11.3 13.1 14.2 17.3 17.8 14.4 13.7 13.1 12.3 14.3 15.6 18.9 19.5 15.9 15.1 14.5 5.5 6.9 7.3 9.3 6.6 6.2 16.1 17.8 19.6 23.2 22.4 18.9 18.6 18.3 Married men, spouse present Women who maintain families Pulltime workers 7.2 6.8 6.6 8.8 8.8 9.4 10.5 10.4 9.3 9.3 9.1 8.5 11.0 10.9 8.6 8.1 7.9 9.2 7.1 6.8 6.6 4.3 6.5 6.5 4.6 4.3 4.4 8.3 9.2 10.4 11.7 12.2 10.3 10.4 9.8 5.3 6.9 7.3 9.6 9.5 2.8 4.2 Parttime workers Labor force time lost (percent) 2 6.3 7.9 7.2 7.0 8.8 8.9 6.6 6.2 6.1 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.7 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.1 6.1 5.9 17.7 18.2 17.3 6.0 6.0 5.8 12.7 12.7 12.3 14.3 14.2 13.7 6.6 6.5 6.3 4.6 4.5 4.3 8.9 9.7 9.8 6.6 6.6 6.3 9.2 9.1 8.8 7.8 7.7 7.6 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.2 6.2 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.9 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.0 6.0 5.9 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.0 5.1 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.2 17.7 18.0 18.1 17.4 17.7 15.9 15.5 16.0 16.3 17.4 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 12.6 12.8 12.5 11.7 12.2 11.4 11.3 11.3 10.8 10.8 14.3 14.3 13.9 13.0 13.8 12.7 12.6 12.4 12.3 12.0 6.3 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.7 9.8 9.5 9.7 9.3 9.6 9.7 9.4 9.0 8.8 9.0 6.4 6.3 6.2 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.5 9.0 8.7 9.2 8.6 8.7 6.9 7.9 8.2 8.5 8.5 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.1 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.8 1 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces. 2 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons f cent of potentially available labor force hours. 12 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In October, the percentages of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks, for 15-26 weeks, and for 27 weeks and over fell, while the percentage out of work for 5-14 weeks rose. The mean duration of unemployment fell and the median duration rose. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 70 REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT 60 — 50 - \ JOB LOSERS 40 REENTRANTS ,,-A- 30 20 NEW ENTRANTS \ — 10 1983 1987 1984 1985 1986 1987 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Reason for unemployment: percent distribution Duration of unemployment Period Unemployment (thousands) Percent distribution Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks State programs Insured Number of weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Median Job losers Job leavers Reentrants New entrants Insured unemployment Initial claims ployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) 1 Weekly average, thousands 1980 1981 1982 1983 .. 1984 1985 1986 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,237 43.1 41.7 36.4 33.3 39.2 42.1 41.9 32.3 30.7 31.0 27.4 28.7 30.2 31.0 13.8 13.6 16.0 15.4 12.9 12.3 12.7 10.7 14.0 16.6 23.9 19.1 15.4 14.4 11.9 13.7 15.6 20.0 18.2 15.6 15.0 6.5 6.9 8.7 10.1 7.9 6.8 6.9 51.7 51.6 58.7 58.4 51.8 49.8 48.9 11.7 11.2 7.9 7.7 9.6 10.6 12.3 25.2 25.4 22.3 22.5 25.6 27.1 26.2 11.4 11.9 11.1 11.3 13.0 12.5 12.5 3,350 3,047 4,061 3,396 2,476 2,611 2,650 488 460 583 438 377 396 378 3,837 3,410 4,594 3,775 2,561 2,693 2,746 1986- Oct Nov Dec 8,222 8,243 7,949 41.9 41.2 42.4 31.5 31.8 30.2 11.7 12.7 12.9 14.9 14.3 14.5 15.2 14.8 15.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 48.7 48.1 48.9 12.6 12.9 13.0 26.8 25.8 25.4 11.9 13.1 12.8 2,621 2,565 2,515 357 355 357 2,296 2,478 2,841 1987- Jan Feb Mar 8,023 7,967 7,854 7,500 7,546 7,260 7,224 7,221 7,089 7,174 41.9 42.2 42.9 42.2 44.3 42.5 43.9 44.1 45.6 45.4 31.1 31.1 31.1 30.0 28.0 29.1 29.7 29.9 27.3 29.8 12.5 12.7 12.0 13.8 13.2 13.8 13.1 11.2 12.8 11.2 14.5 14.1 14.0 14.1 14.5 14.6 13.3 14.8 14.3 13.5 15.0 14.6 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.0 14.3 14.2 14.0 7.0 6.6 6.6 7.0 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.4 5.7 6.2 49.6 48.2 48.4 49.7 47.8 49.0 48.6 46.6 46.9 48.2 11.1 13.1 12.7 12.3 12.0 13.0 13.9 14.0 14.0 13.4 25.7 25.6 26.8 25.8 26.7 27.0 26.4 27.9 26.6 25.1 13.6 13.1 12.1 12.1 13.5 11.0 11.1 11.6 12.5 13.4 2,507 2,477 2,453 2,356 2,310 2,303 2,296 2,252 2,112 2,032 363 369 342 329 329 332 334 305 288 287 3,276 3,155 2,933 2,526 2,216 2,108 2,210 2,030 1,800 May July Sept Oct 1 includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Is ands), ex-servicemen (IICX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes Fede ral and State extended benefit programs. Docs not include Federal supplemental compensation pro Tarn. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 549,000 in October. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) MILLIONS OF PERSONS 100 ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 90 80 18 70 SERVICE-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 16 =-- - -j»-*a =-=• GOVERNMENT 60 20 50 18 40 CONSTRUCTION GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 30 20 lllllllllU 1983 1984 lllllllllU lllllllllU 1985 1986 1987 1983 l l l l l l l l l U l l l l l l l l l U lllllllllU Illlllllllli 1984 1985 •SEASONAUY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF IABOR 1987 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers; * seasonally adjusted] Service-producing industries Goods-producing industries Penod - 1980 .. 1981 1982 1983 1984 ... 1985 1986 . 3 Total nonagricultural employment Manufacturing Total 2 Construction Total Durable goo s Nondurable goods Total Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade Government Finance, insurance, and real estate Services Total Federal 90,406 91,156 89,566 90,200 94,496 97,519 99,610 25,658 25,497 23,813 23,334 24,727 24,859 24,681 4,346 4/188 3,905 3^948 4,383 4^673 4,904 20,285 20470 18,781 18*434 19,378 19^260 18,994 12,187 12^109 11,039 10J32 11,505 11490 11,244 8,098 8^061 7,741 7^702 7,873 7^770 7,750 64,748 65,659 65,753 66,866 69,769 72,660 74,930 5,146 5465 5,082 4^954 5,159 5J238 5,244 5,275 5 1 358 5,278 5,268 5,555 5^717 5,735 15,035 15,189 15,179 15,613 16,545 17,356 17,845 5,160 5,298 5,341 5,468 5,689 5,955 6,297 17,890 18,619 19,036 19,694 20,797 22,000 23,099 16,241 16,031 15,837 15,869 16,024 16,394 16,711 2,866 2,772 2,739 2,774 2,807 2,875 2,899 1986: Get 100,209 Nov.... 100,415 100,567 Dee 24,611 24,630 24,630 4,942 4,946 4,936 18,934 18,954 18,970 11,169 11,174 11,175 7,765 7,780 7,795 75,598 75,785 75,937 5,251 5,278 5,286 5,731 5,728 5,725 17,980 18,009 18,007 6,395 6,418 6,451 23,369 23,452 23,544 16,872 16,900 16,924 2,897 2,900 2,904 1987: Jan 100,919 Peb 101,150 Mar 101,329 Apr 101,598 May.... 101,708 June ... 101,818 July.... 102,126 Aug '.. 102,275 Sept r.. 102,396 Get "... 102,945 24,708 24,743 24,749 24,759 24,752 24,761 24,850 24,886 24,910 25,018 5,034 5,038 5,032 5,019 4,999 5,008 5,002 5,006 4,978 5,019 18,956 18,986 18,995 19,011 19,018 19,015 19,104 19,129 19,174 19,237 11,157 11,179 11,176 11,175 11,175 11,176 11,195 11,248 11,276 11,321 7,799 7,807 7,819 7,836 7,843 7,839 7,909 7,881 7,898 7,916 76,211 76,407 76,580 76,839 76,956 77,057 77,276 77,389 77,486 77,927 5,304 5,315 5,333 5,348 5,344 5,350 5,363 5,377 5,406 5,422 5,741 5,757 5,766 5,772 5,775 5,781 5,797 5,807 5,813 5,824 18,080 18,140 18,136 18,197 18,205 18,226 18,274 18,256 18,319 18,388 6,480 6,501 6,526 6,558 6,576 6,586 6,608 6,624 6,626 6,633 23,670 23,759 23,842 23,926 24,025 24,083 24,214 24,279 24,274 24,424 16,936 16,935 16,977 17,038 17,031 17,031 17,020 17,046 17,048 17,236 2,912 2,916 2,922 2,933 2,935 2,935 2,936 2,940 2,963 2,955 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this tahle not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial dis- 14 putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. ncludes mining, not shown separately. ^ Inc Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average gross hourly earnings Average weekly hours Period 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1986: Oct Nov Dec 1987- Jan Feb Mar Apr May July Sept r. Oct" Manufacturing Total private nonagrieultural ' Total Total private nonagricultural 1 Overtime Index, Manufacturing 9.77 9.78 9.79 2.4 2.6 2.0 1.2 1.7 1.3 9.79 9.81 9.83 9.86 9.88 9.88 9.87 9.93 10.03 10.02 171.2 171.8 172.2 172.6 172.9 172.9 173.2 174.1 174.5 174.6 94.7 94.6 94.4 94.2 94.0 93.8 93.7 93.7 93.7 93.5 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.8 2.6 1.1 8.86 8.88 8.91 8.91 8.95 8.94 8.96 9.02 9.02 9.08 40.7 40.8 40.8 34.7 34.9 34.8 34.7 34.9 34.8 34.8 34.9 34.6 34.8 40.9 41.1 40.9 40.6 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 40.4 41.1 1977 dollars -3.1 -4.0 10 .9 1.6 -.3 -.5 1.0 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.6 4.0 34.7 34.8 34.6 Current dollars 7.9 9.0 9.1 6.9 4.6 3.2 3.1 2.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.4 1977 dollars 3 Current dollars 97.4 93.5 92.6 93.4 94.9 94.6 94.1 95.0 95.1 95.5 95.3 $6.70 7.27 7.99 8.49 8.83 9.19 9.54 9.73 40.2 39.7 39.8 38.9 40.1 40.7 40.5 40.7 Percent change from a year earlier * 5 116.8 127.3 138.9 148.5 155.4 160.3 165.2 169.3 170.2 171.2 171.1 $6.16 6.66 7.25 7.68 8.02 8.32 8.57 8.76 8.82 8.86 8.84 35.7 35.3 35.2 34.8 35.0 35.2 34.9 34.8 Adjusted hourly earnings index2 — total private nonagricultural .3 g -1.2 -1.3 -1.4 -1.4 -1.6 -1.5 -1.9 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Percent change from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural 5 Average gross weekly earnings Period Current dollars 1987: Construction Retail trade Current dollars 1977 dollars 3 1977 dollars Current dollars $219.91 235.10 255.20 267.26 280.70 292.86 299.09 304.85 $183.41 172.74 170.13 168.09 171.26 172.78 170.42 171.07 $269.34 288.62 318.00 330.26 354.08 374.03 386.37 396.01 $342.99 367.78 399.26 426.82 442.97 458.51 464.46 466.38 $138.62 147.38 158.03 163.85 171.05 174.33 174.64 176.08 8.0 6.9 8.5 4.7 5.0 4.3 2.1 1.9 Oct Nov Dec 306.05 308.33 305.86 171.07 171.96 170.40 397.64 399.02 399.43 471.38 473.71 471.85 176.35 177.24 176.00 1.5 2.1 .5 -3.1 -5.8 -1.5 -1.2 1.9 .9 -1.4 .4 .3 1.2 2 Jan Peb Mar 307.44 309.91 310.07 309.18 312.36 311.11 311.81 314.80 312.09 315.98 170.04 170.75 170.09 168.77 169.95 168.71 168.73 169.52 167.70 169.15 400.41 403.19 402.05 400.32 405.08 405.08 404.67 407.13 405.21 411.82 476.63 474.24 478.30 471.61 481.97 478.27 478.93 480.44 450.14 483.99 175.45 176.97 177.27 179.36 179.05 178.12 179.02 ' 181.45 183.52 179.87 1.2 2.4 1.8 1.8 2.6 2.6 3.0 3.3 2.4 3.7 .1 .5 -1.0 -1.9 1i -1.0 -.9 -.9 -1.8 -.9 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1986: Manufacturing Total private nonagricultural l May July Sept7". Oct* 1 4 z 9 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing. Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (on a 1977= 100 base). 3 Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places. Based on seasonally unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 79-578 -87-2 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output per hour of all persons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Output ' Business sector Hours of all persons 2 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Compensation per hour 3 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real compensation per hour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit labor costs Business sector Nonfarm business sector Implicit price deflator 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector 1977 = 100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 99.6 99.3 107.9 107.9 108.3 108.7 119.1 118.9 99.4 99.2 119.5 119.7 117.0 116.5 1980 1981 1982.... 1983 1984 99.3 100.7 100.3 103.0 105.6 98.8 99.8 99.2 102.5 104.6 106.7 108.9 105.5 109.9 119.2 106.7 108.5 104.9 110.1 119.2 107.5 108.2 105.2 106.7 112.9 108.0 108.7 105.7 107.5 114.0 131.5 143.7 154.9 161.5 168.0 131.3 143.6 154.8 161.5 167.8 96.7 95.7 97.3 98.2 98.0 96.6 95.7 97.2 98.2 97.9 132.5 142.7 154.5 156.7 159.1 132.9 144.0 156.0 157.6 160.4 127.6 139.8 148.1 153.0 158.2 127.8 140.3 149.2 154.3 159.0 1985 1986 107.5 109.5 105.8 107.5 123.9 128.0 123.6 127.5 115.2 116.9 116.8 118.6 175.9 182.8 175.2 182.0 99.1 101.0 98.7 100.6 163.6 166.9 165.6 169.3 162.4 165.8 164.1 167.8 1979 1982: IV 101.0 99.7 105.0 104.2 103.9 104.5 158.3 158.2 98.0 97.9 156.8 158.7 150.2 151.4 1983: IV 103.7 103.3 113.6 114.1 109.4 110.4 163.6 163.4 98.0 97.9 157.7 158.2 155.2 156.2 105.1 105.6 105.5 105.9 104.1 104.7 104.6 104.8 117.1 119.1 119.7 120.8 117.1 119.3 119.8 120.7 111.4 112.8 113.4 114.0 112.4 113.9 114.5 115.2 165.8 166.9 168.7 170.3 165.6 166.8 168.6 170.2 98.1 97.8 98.0 98.1 98.0 97.7 97.9 98.0 157.8 158.0 159.9 160.8 159.0 159.3 161.2 162.4 156.5 157.6 158.7 159.8 157.0 158.3 159.7 161.0 106.5 107.2 108.2 107.9 105.2 105.7 106.4 105.9 122.2 123.3 124.7 125.3 122.0 123.1 124.3 124.9 114.7 115.0 115.2 116.1 115.9 116.4 116.9 117.9 172.4 174.6 177.0 179.3 172.2 174.1 176.2 178.3 98.5 98.6 99.4 99.7 98.4 98.3 98.9 99.2 161.9 162.8 163.6 166.1 163.6 164.7 165.7 168.3 160.8 162.0 163.0 164.0 162.2 163.6 164.9 165.7 109.5 109.7 109.6 109.6 107.7 107.7 107.5 107.5 127.3 127.5 128.1 129.0 126.9 127.1 127.6 128.5 116.3 116.3 116.9 117.8 117.9 118.0 118.7 119.6 180.7 182.2 183.6 185.2 180.0 181.3 182.6 184.4 100.1 101.3 101.4 101.6 99.7 100.8 100.9 101.2 165.0 166.2 167.5 169.0 167.2 168.4 169.8 171.5 164.3 165.4 166.9 166.7 166.4 167.3 168.8 168.8 109.7 110.1 110.9 107.6 108.0 108.7 130.2 131.1 132.5 129.7 130.7 132.1 118.7 119.1 119.5 120.6 121.1 121.6 185.8 187.3 189.3 184.9 186.3 188.1 100.7 100.3 100.4 100.2 99.7 99.7 169.4 170.2 170.7 171.8 172.5 173.1 168.2 169.6 170.3 170.3 171.4 172.2 -1.2 -1.6 1984- I n m IV 1985- I n m IV 1986: I n Ill IV 1987: I n HI"*.. Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 1979 2.0 1.9 3.2 3.5 9.7 9.5 -1.4 -1.6 11.1 11.2 9.0 8.9 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1.4 -.4 2.7 2.5 — .4 1.0 -.6 3.3 2.1 — 1.1 2.1 31 4.2 8.4 -1.2 1.7 -3.3 5.0 8.3 g .7 28 1.5 5.7 7 .7 27 1.6 6.0 10.5 9.2 7.8 4.2 4.1 10.5 9.4 7.8 4.3 3.9 -2.7 -1.0 1.6 1.0 2 -2.7 -.9 1.5 1.1 -.3 10.9 7.7 8.3 1.4 1.5 11.0 8.3 8.4 1.0 1.8 9.0 9.6 5.9 3.3 3.3 9.7 9.7 6.3 3.5 3.0 1985 1986 1.8 1.9 1.2 1.6 4.0 3.3 3.6 3.2 2.1 1.4 2.5 1.6 4.7 3.9 4.4 3.9 1.1 2.0 .8 1.9 2.8 2.0 3.2 2.2 2.7 2.1 3.2 2.3 Q 1982: IV 3.0 2.4 -.5 4.5 5.0 3.2 3.7 1.5 2.6 2.4 3.0 1983: IV 3.0 1.4 10.4 9.8 7.2 8.3 5.4 4.3 1.5 .4 2.4 2.9 4.8 3.1 1984- I II Ill 5.3 2.1 -.4 1.5 3.4 2.4 -.6 1.0 12.9 7.3 1.9 3.5 11.1 7.6 1.8 3.1 7.3 5.1 2.3 2.1 7.4 5.2 2.4 2.1 5.6 2.7 4.4 3.8 5.5 3.0 4.3 3.9 .2 2.1 .7 4.9 2.9 3.4 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.1 3.5 3.5 3.3 2.2 2.9 3.7 -1.0 1.5 1.7 2.6 -1.6 4.8 3.8 4.4 2.2 4.3 3.4 4.1 2.0 2.5 1.0 .7 3.2 2.8 1.7 1.5 3.6 5.1 5.1 5.7 5.1 5.8 .6 -.3 -.1 6.6 .1 -.6 .0 6.4 .7 1.8 3.0 6.4 .6 1.7 2.9 .5 .1 2.1 3.1 -.2 .6 2.3 2.9 .5 1.4 2.9 .4 1.4 2.6 3.5 3.0 4.2 3.8 3.2 4.4 3.0 1.6 1.3 3.4 1.7 1.7 IV 1985: I... II Ill IV 1986: I II Ill IV 1987: I II Ill <" . . 1 -1.2 -3.4 -3.5 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1982 dollars. 2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed. 4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers. 5 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. 16 .8 .4 .7 .6 .3 .6 4.8 2.3 4.8 4.5 4.9 4.9 1.7 .6 3.3 1.2 1.4 — .1 2.5 .9 2.8 2.2 1.9 6.2 3.2 2.7 2.2 6.6 2.5 3.0 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.5 3.2 2.0 3.2 3.5 3.0 3.6 3.9 2.9 2.8 4.0 1.6 4.8 .5 .9 2.3 4.2 .4 1.3 -2.5 2.8 3.3 3.7 -2.6 2.8 3.5 4.0 .9 2.6 3.7 -.5 1.6 2.3 3.7 .0 1.4 3.3 4.2 1.1 3.0 4.0 .9 1.8 1.3 .8 1.5 1.3 3.7 3.4 1.7 3.4 2.6 2.0 .3 -1.3 -1.0 -3.7 -1.6 -3.9 -1.8 .3 .1 NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore ma; differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. 'Data for third quarter 1987 do not reflect revisions of GNP and related items published Novem ber 24. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production rose 0.6 percent in October, following no change in September. The index for October was 5.1 percent above its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) ^U FINAL PRODUCTS 200 INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) 140 TOTAL NDUSTRIAL PRODUC1riON ,-• ^^~'— •>__ _—*-•"• 120 ™ DEFENSE AND SPACE EQUIPMENT 180 — \ 160 100 -^ I 1 1 1 1IjJJ 11 iniiliiiti iiiiilinii 1 1 111 1M 1 1 1 ^._ iiiiilinii t•4ONDURABL Ss* .--"* BUSINESS EQUIPMENT ^i_^ -^ ^^ ^^ 120 ^^-^^' - - DUR ABLE 1 \^f--- -\- "I"" 120 -^***f p- 140! MANUF ACTURING PRODUCT ION 140 ^~ ""• CONSUMER GOODS -^'"" ; 1 100 - s ,,,,,,,,,,, iiiiilinii 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 M 1 I 111 1 ,,,,,, 100 1 11 M M \ \ ' \ iiiiilinii 1 1 1 11 11 1 I 1 1 PERCENT* iiiiilinii 1 11 11 1 111 1 1 90 — CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE (TOTAL INDUSTRY) — 140 _ UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION 120 ^**^~^«- .Vo 100 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 ,,.,,!,,!.. 1 1 1983 1984 Ci e 80 > * 5^v b ^/" -.'-'"•- 70 MININC' ^-v^~ 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 111 II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 iiiiilinii 1985 1987 1986 60 Minium iiiiilinii iiiiiliini iiiiilinii 1985 1983 1984 1986 "SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 1 11 111 LI 1 1 1 1987 COUNCIL OF EC DNOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Total industrial production Period Index, 1977 = 100 1977 proportion 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1986: Oct Nov Dec 1987: Jan Feb Mar May July ' Aug r Sept r Oct'' 1 Output as percent of capacity. Industry production indexes, 1977 = 100 Capacity utilization rate, percent 1 Manufacturing Percent change from year earlier Mining Total Durable Utilities Nondurable Total industry Manufacturing 100.0 110.7 108.6 111.0 103.1 109.2 121.4 123.7 125.1 125.3 125.7 126.8 3.9 -1.9 2.2 -7.1 5.9 11.2 1.9 1.1 1.3 .7 1.1 84.21 111.5 108.2 110.5 102.2 110.2 123.4 126.4 129.1 129.7 130.1 131.3 49.10 113.9 109.1 111.1 99.9 107.7 124.2 127.6 128.4 128.6 129.0 129.7 35.11 108.2 107.0 109.7 105.5 113.7 122.3 124.6 130.1 131.2 131.7 133.4 9.83 106.4 112.4 117.5 109.3 102.9 111.1 108.9 100.4 96.2 97.5 97.1 5.96 105.9 107.3 107.1 104.8 105.2 110.7 111.1 108.5 108.6 109.6 109.0 85.2 80.9 79.9 72.1 74.6 81.0 80.4 79.4 79.1 79.2 79.7 84.6 79.3 78.2 70.3 73.9 80.5 80.1 79.7 79.5 79.6 80.2 126.2 127.1 127.4 127.4 128.2 129.1 130.6 131.0 130.9 131.7 1.3^ 2.9 2.1 3.1 4.1 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.1 130.7 131.6 132.4 132.4 133.2 134.0 135.6 135.7 135.7 136.8 129.3 130.8 131.5 130.9 131.4 132.0 133.5 133.7 133.6 135.3 132.7 132.9 133.7 134.6 135.7 136.9 138.5 138.6 138.6 139.0 99.4 98.8 98.3 98.6 99.2 99.2 99.2 100.3 101.0 101.5 108.0 108.5 107.9 106.0 109.6 109.4 111.2 112.5 111.0 110.8 79.2 79.7 79.7 79.6 79.9 80.3 81.1 81.2 81.0 81.3 79.6 80.0 80.3 80.2 80.4 80.8 81.5 81.4 81.2 81.7 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstei 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1977—100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Materials Products Final products Intermediate products Consumer goods Equipment Period Total Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total ' Business Defense and space equipment Total " Construction supplies Business supplies Total Energy 1977 proportion 1979 1980 .. 1981 1982 1983 .... 1984 1985 1986 1986: Oct Nov Dec 44.77 111.0 112.2 115.2 109.5 114.7 127.3 131.0 132.5 132.9 132.9 134.1 35.52 103.9 102.7 104.1 101.4 109.3 118.0 119.8 124.0 124.8 125.0 126.6 6.89 99.9 88.4 89.7 82.9 98.5 112.2 112.5 115.6 116.8 117.4 119.5 18.63 105.4 108.1 109.3 108.3 113.3 120.1 122.5 127.1 127.7 127.8 129.2 19.25 120.4 124.7 129.9 120.2 121.7 139.6 145.8 143.6 143.7 143.4 144.0 14.34 124.7 125.1 127.6 113.6 115.4 134.2 140.2 139.5 139.4 138.8 139.5 3.67 105.6 115.4 119.8 133.0 143.1 156.4 171.4 182.0 185.6 185.5 186.2 12.94 110.8 106.9 107.3 101.7 111.2 124.7 129.3 136.2 138.3 138.1 139.2 5.95 108.7 100.6 98.6 88.3 100.6 114.0 119.2 126.4 127.3 127.3 128.6 6.99 112.7 112.3 114.7 113.1 120.3 133.8 137.9 144.6 147.7 147.3 148.2 42.28 110.3 105.3 107.7 96.7 102.8 114.2 114.3 113.8 113.3 114.3 115.2 11.69 104.1 105.5 104.7 101.2 98.4 103.9 103.3 99.7 96.8 98.8 97.7 1987: 133.3 134.8 135.1 134.5 135.5 136.2 137.9 138.3 138.4 139.9 125.5 126.4 126.7 125.5 127.3 127.2 128.9 129.2 128.4 129.9 118.8 121.0 119.8 116.7 120.1 117.4 120.4 120.9 118.1 122.1 128.0 128.4 129.3 128.7 130.0 130.9 132.1 132.3 132.3 132.8 143.5 146.0 146.2 146.4 146.3 148.1 149.7 150.3 151.7 153.2 138.6 141.7 141.9 142.1 141.7 144.2 145.6 145.5 146.6 148.4 187.3 188.9 182.6 189.2 189.3 188.6 188.7 190.1 191.3 192.1 138.8 139.9 140.9 140.3 141.8 143.3 145.0 144.8 144.2 144.6 130.3 130.0 130.4 128.2 129.1 131.5 133.1 132.2 132.4 132.4 146.0 148.4 149.9 150.6 152.6 153.4 155.2 155.5 154.2 114.9 114.9 115.2 115.9 116.3 117.2 118.5 119.0 118.8 119.0 99.3 98.6 97.2 97.8 98.7 99.4 99.0 99.9 99.6 99.3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May .. .... Julv r ...- Aue rr Sept Ocf 1 Includes rigs and prefabs, not shown separately. [1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Nondurable manufactures Durable manufactures Transportation equipment Primary metals Iron and steel Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery 3.49 108.0 86.3 92.5 57.5 66.1 73.4 70.4 63.4 61.0 63.5 61.3 6.46 109.4 101.8 101.6 86.6 89.1 102.6 107.1 108.0 108.9 108.3 109.6 9.54 122.6 123.3 129.8 115.6 118.3 141.8 146.2 145.0 145.0 144.5 144.8 7.15 125.7 130.3 134.1 128.4 143.8 170.5 168.3 165.7 167.3 167.9 170.4 9.13 108.3 96.9 95.1 87.6 99.2 112.2 122.8 127.5 127.6 126.9 126.8 59.5 62.3 65.4 65.0 65.7 68.3 70.9 75.5 108.4 108.3 110.5 109.9 108.5 111.1 111.1 109.9 110.1 111.1 143.4 145.5 148.5 150.4 149.7 151.8 155.3 154.1 156.4 157.3 170.4 171.0 168.5 168.4 171.1 170.5 172.5 174.0 173.5 173.6 129.0 132.7 132.2 127.8 129.4 126.5 127.6 128.0 125.8 132.0 Period Total 1977 proportion 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1986: Oct Nov Dec 1987: Jan Feb Mar .... Apr May July '. Aug r Sept r Oct " 5.33 108.5 90.4 95.0 65.8 73.0 82.3 80.4 75.1 73.1 75.5 73.4 72.8 75.1 77.0 76.1 77.0 78.8 81.4 84.8 845 85 1 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstei 18 Total Lumber and products Apparel products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Foods 5.25 95.9 71.1 71.6 66.8 85.8 104.4 111.9 111.5 110.3 109.1 109.7 2.30 102.0 92.9 90.1 82.8 100.2 109.1 114.3 124.1 124.6 130.3 133.5 2.79 98.3 97.3 96.1 87.3 95.3 102.7 100.4 103.1 103.9 103.8 104.9 4.54 112.7 115.1 118.6 120.2 129.8 146.5 151.4 160.9 164.4 164.8 166.4 8.05 111.4 106.4 112.6 103.8 114.0 121.6 126.4 132.0 133.3 132.3 135.7 7.96 106.7 111.4 113.7 114.9 120.4 126.9 130.5 134.4 133.7 135.3 136.7 112.0 117.7 116.5 109.8 112.0 107.4 109.4 109.1 105.8 115.7 128.5 129.6 128.9 127.8 130.3 131.1 132.8 131.1 130.9 106.1 106.5 105.4 105.3 106.4 107.7 109.7 107.8 166.3 164.4 167.6 169.2 171.4 174.1 174.0 174.1 173.9 174.0 136.4 135.7 135.3 137.3 138.1 139.3 140.8 142.0 142.4 134.6 136.4 137.3 136.0 137.4 137.7 138.5 138.8 139.4 Motor vehicles and parts NEW CONSTRUCTION [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Construction contracts 3 Private Total new construction expenditures Period Residential Total Commercial and industrial 2 New housing units Total ' Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1982=100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) Billions of dollars 252.4 251.7 260.2 246.6 281.3 328.6 356.0 388.8 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985.... 1986 200.7 193.3 203.6 192.9 227.5 271.0 291.7 316.6 116.4 100.4 99.2 84.7 125.5 153.8 158.5 187.1 89.3 69.6 69.4 57.0 94.6 113.8 114.7 133.2 42.0 46.7 55.0 58.7 53.8 68.6 82.7 78.0 42.3 46.2 49.4 49.5 48.1 48.5 50.5 51.5 51.7 58.5 56.5 53.7 53.8 57.7 64.3 72.2 109 97 100 100 124 135 148 155 155 151 156 155 970 861 1,025 940 155 151 165 162 149 161 163 171 157 166 996 850 912 935 901 1,023 1,011 1,033 1,065 994 Annual rates Annual rates 1986: Sept . Oct Nov Dec 1987: Jan. Feb Mar Apr May July Aug " Sept" Oct" ... 400.1 394.9 390.6 380.2 324.9 322.9 320.4 306.8 198.8 192.6 194.5 181.7 137.6 139.0 138.5 137.6 75.8 78.4 75.1 75.5 50.3 51.9 50.8 49.7 75.2 71.9 70.2 73.3 384.7 401.6 388.3 396.2 396.7 397.2 399.7 400.1 406.3 310.2 326.5 312.2 320.5 321.4 324.3 325.0 328.2 329.7 187.8 203.1 190.8 199.5 195.9 200.9 198.1 199.4 200.7 137.3 137.0 139.5 139.7 139.4 138.2 137.9 138.1 139.9 70.4 72.8 71.3 69.8 73.8 72.0 72.9 74.2 73.9 52.0 50.5 50.1 51.1 51.7 51.4 54.0 54.5 55.1 74.5 75.2 76.1 75.7 75.3 72.9 74.7 71.9 76.6 1 Includes the following categories of private construction not shown separately: residential improvements, railroads, electric light and power, gas, petroleum pipelines, and farm nonresidential. 2 Includes hotels and motels. 1,059 904 919 690 756 955 1,097 996 3 F. W. Dodge series. Sources: Department of Commerce {Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New private homes New private housing units Units started, by type of structure Period Total 1979.. .. 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1,745.1 1,292.2 1,084.2 1,062.2 1,703.0 1,749.5 1,741.8 1,805.4 1 unit 1,194.1 852.2 705.4 662.6 1,067.6 1,084.2 1,072.4 1,179.4 2-4 units 122.0 109.5 91.1 80.0 113.5 121.4 93.4 84.0 5 or more units 429.0 330.5 287.7 319.6 522.0 544.0 576.1 542.0 Units authorized 1,551.8 1,190.6 985.5 1,000.5 1,605.2 1,681.8 1,733.3 1,769.4 Units completed Homes sold Homes for sale at end of period * 3 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 2 398 336 272 251 300 353 346 357 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.3 5.7 5.9 6.5 7.3 675 691 768 357 353 357 7.7 712 740 720 733 649 641 675 692 656 358 358 358 359 355 359 358 360 359 1,870.8 1,501.6 1,265.7 1,005.5 1,390.3 1,652.2 1,703.3 1,756.4 709 545 436 412 623 639 688 750 1,745 1,774 1,894 1,956 1,726 1,689 1,830 1,621 1,601 r 1,698 1,665 1,540 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1986- Oct Nov Dec 1987- Jan Feb Mar May June July Aug r Sept r Oct" 1,657 1,637 1,813 1,816 1,838 1,730 1,643 1,606 1,586 1,598 1,585 1,648 1,513 1,114 1,129 1,233 1,253 1,303 1,211 1,208 1,130 1,088 1,143 1,111 1,186 1,103 85 71 108 79 76 85 67 67 85 59 59 55 67 458 437 472 484 459 434 368 409 413 396 415 407 343 1 Seasonally adjusted. 2 Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable vith earlier data. 3 New series beginning March 1979. 1,664 1,667 1,862 1,652 1,676 1,719 1,598 1,493 1,517 1,487 1,502 1,502 1,463 7.4 7.5 8.1 NOTE.—Beginning 1984, units authorized are for 17,000 permit-issuing places and for 1978-83 data are for 16,000 places. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade In September, manufacturing and trade sales rose 1.2 percent and inventories rose $4.0 billion. In October, according to advance data, retail sales fell 0.1 percent, following a decline of 1.1 percent in September. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 20 800 - - 700 ,_—•— -•—' ^-1 MAN JFACTURINCSAND TRA DE INVENTC RIES - ^ - """ '"V" \ - MA NUFACTURI vIG AN D TRADE SA .ES ^•'' 00 - - A'' i"" 20 --*• /""" — R ITAIL INVEN TORIES /" 500 e_,'' ^/r—'—*C 60 - 40 400 ^-—"^""1^ 80 L 600 - 00 - iETAIL SALES x~" 80 miilmii Ulllllllii lllll|||lll mnliim I'lI'lMU! 300 - RATIO* 1.80 - -v 1.60 •200 INVENTORY-SALES RATIO 1.40 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE 1.20 mnlimi imilimi iimliini imilimi imitimi 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 RETAI 1.00 minium iiiiiliini iiiiilinii iiiiilinii 1984 1983 1985 1986 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Manufacturing and trade * COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Wholesale Sales Inventories 3 Sales 2 Inventory-sales ratio 4 Retail Sales Period 2 1987 Inventories 3 Total 2 Durable goods stores Inventories Nondurable goods stores Total 3 Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Manufacturing and trade l Retail Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1986: Sept r. Oct. . Nov Dec r 1987- Jan Feb Mar Apr Mayj June July Aue r Sept" Oct". 1 348,746 369,266 408,721 419,459 425,752 574,126 589,280 641,328 650,695 652,705 96,290 100,424 113,404 114,563 115,109 128,196 129,803 140,865 144,244 147,375 437,226 429,751 429,944 443,766 653,666 656,619 656,189 652,705 117,741 117,488 117,734 118,446 148,253 147,754 148,204 147,375 425,080 443,169 445,032 444,357 446,282 451,734 452,652 457,499 462,983 659,036 660,470 663,010 665,877 671,609 674,753 677,743 678,442 682,430 116,545 123,281 123,009 123,439 124,486 124,836 126,196 128,164 129,819 149,347 149,408 149,565 150,050 152,673 153,093 152,648 151,222 153,296 r 129,101 122,288 121,678 127,613 118,579 124,280 124,593 124,960 124,867 126,307 127,061 128,931 r 127,555 127,418 See page 21 for manufacturing. Monthly average for year and total for month. End of period. Data are on a current-cost basis beginning December 1980 for wholesale and retail and beginning January 1982 for manufacturing; not comparable with data for prior periods. 2 3 20 60,937 64,438 68,499 71,803 73,863 134,509 147,325 166,300 179,671 187,158 61,911 70,092 80,737 90,791 94,935 72,598 77,233 85,563 88,880 92,223 1.67 1.56 1.52 1.54 1.54 1.49 1.44 1.48 1.50 1.54 74,013 74,343 74,270 75,034 187,057 190,645 189,264 187,158 95,497 97,810 97,041 94,935 91,560 92,835 92,223 92,223 1.50 1.53 1.53 1.47 1.45 1.56 1.56 1.47 74,813 76,915 76,651 76,825 77,084 77,326 77,326 77,788 r 77,414 77,783 189,000 190,527 193,355 195,042 197,088 200,039 201,762 201,826 202,664 96,606 97,831 99,293 99,767 101,876 103,541 104,385 104,044 104,457 92,394 92,696 94,062 95,275 95,212 96,498 97,377 97,782 98,207 1.55 1.49 1.49 1.50 1.50 1.49 1.50 1.48 1.47 1.59 1.53 1.55 1.56 1.58 1.58 1.59 1.57 1.59 28,169 33,161 38,948 43,165 47,338 89,107 97,599 107,448 114,968 121,201 r 55,088 47,945 47,408 52,579 43,766 47,365 47,942 48,135 47,783 48,981 49,735 51,143 r 50,141 49,635 4 r Annual data are averages of monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In September, manufacturers' shipments, inventories, durable goods shipments fell and new orders rose. and orders rose. In October, according to advance data, BULK)NS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 280 240 — SHIPME NTS 200 160 BILLIC)NS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 440 400 360 320 280 ' ^-~ ^—"""l — TOTAL— * — INVENTORIES ' " \ 240 - DU RABLE GOO 35 ~H— vH .. 80 .-*«^ -i— I ** / ^-- ^'"—_r *• •. •* •* 120 \ iiniiiMii Illllllllll Illllilllll Illllllllll NOr' (DURABLE G )ODS 80 BILLIC>NS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 60 280 240 ..... KIFW nRHFF?^ Illllllllll Illllllllll Mlllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 200 ^s~^ -/ —— \ DU RABLE GOO 3S 160 NO ^DURABLE G OODS 60 IIMlllllll 200 - ,- .^- 120 s — RATIC * 2.20 160 INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO 2.00 120 80 (ABLE GOO ,^- .-._.,-. \~^"A ' \~ ' 1 \—1 A t 1.60 1 NON DURABLE G(DODS 1.40 60 Illllllllll IIMlllllll Illlillllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 1984 1983 1985 r^ 1.80 ^ —- 1.20 1987 1986 -^ " ^ ^1 1 1 1 1 h 1 1 1 1 iiniiiMii 1 1 1I 1 1 1 t 1 1 1 1983 1984 - Illllllllll 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 986 1985 SEASONALIY ADJL STED sOURCE: DEPARTME NT OF COMMERC COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturers' shipments l Manufacturers' inventories 2 Manufacturers' new orders 1 Durable goods Period Total Durable goods 1 987 Nondurable goods Durable goods Total Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, nondefense Nondurable goods Manufacturers' unfilled orders 3 Manufacturers' inventory — shipments ratio 4 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1986: Sept Oct r Nov Dec 1987: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug * Sept r Oct p 1 154,391 168,129 163,350 171,242 187,869 189,928 189,442 77,550 83,872 79,352 84,956 96,623 98,930 100,142 76,841 84,257 83,998 86,286 91,246 90,997 89,300 190,384 189,975 190,532 197,707 100,655 101,100 100,218 106,739 89,729 88,875 90,314 90,968 318,356 318,220 318,721 318,172 189,956 195,608 197,430 195,958 196,929 200,591 199,395 200,404 205,609 99,318 103,601 104,750 102,747 102,477 104,476 103,032 104,135 108,392 108,101 90,638 92,007 92,680 93,211 94,452 96,115 96,363 96,269 97,217 320,689 320,535 320,090 320,785 321,848 321,621 323,333 325,394 326,470 264,281 282,645 311,421 312,152 334,163 326,780 318,172 2 89,661 96,298 110,710 111,932 115,639 113,030 110,237 156,161 167,752 161,600 173,915 190,065 190,631 189,482 79,360 83,553 77,676 87.4S5 98,875 99,600 100,131 23,259 24,050 21,469 22,143 26,714 26,970 26,671 76,801 84,199 83,924 86,431 91,189 91,030 89,351 323,393 319,094 306,302 338,849 365,177 373,495 373,849 209,402 209,170 209,373 207,935 108,954 109,050 109,348 110,237 193,043 189,088 190,999 197,042 102,947 100,073 100,658 105,966 27,155 27,517 27,301 29,312 90,096 89,015 90,341 91,076 374,463 374,047 374,514 373,849 209,090 208,644 207,987 208,683 209,096 208,654 209,951 210,921 211,567 111,599 111,891 112,103 112,102 112,752 112,967 113,382 114,473 114,903 186,633 194,333 199,399 200,624 201,397 205,454 206,065 203,157 206,566 95,544 101,932 106,213 106,977 106,992 109,181 109,213 106,678 109,271 109,568 26,777 26,856 27,396 28,310 30,031 29,987 31,982 29,540 29,751 29,936 91,089 92,401 93,186 93,647 94,405 96,273 96,852 96,479 97,295 370,526 369,251 371,220 375,886 380,354 385,217 391,887 394,640 395,596 174,620 186,347 200,711 200,220 218,524 213,750 207,935 2 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales. End of period. Data beginning 1982 are on a current-cost basis, and are not comparable with data for prior periods. 3 End of period. 2 2 1.67 1.65 1.95 1.80 1.74 1.74 1.70 1.67 1.68 1.67 1.61 1.69 1.64 1.62 1.64 1.63 1.60 1.62 1.62 1.59 4 Annual data are averages of monthly ratios. Data beginning 1982 are not comparable with data for prior periods (see footnote 2 regarding inventories). Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In October, the producer price index for all finished goods fell 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished consumer foods fell 0.1 percent while prices of other finished consumer goods fell 0.2 percent. Capital equipment prices fell 0.4 percent. INDEX, 1967 =100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 340 340 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED FINISHED GOODS 320 320 GOODS \ —-=r~ .\"3 :ONSUMER GC)ODS EXCLUDING FCinns 300 _,^ss~-i^~«£ >"1 .---]| 280 " -^-^ + ''**•*-/ f'/r^f 200 180 300 x -vo ^'" /'"-,'''-< CO NSUMER FOO 3S ..'-./"'' /\ "" r^' // CAPITAL EQUIP WENT 240 z?u 220 200 s II 1 III II 1 II 1979 280 260 //^ f" 240 220 '" ~N~V jfc? 260 Cx^ r- 1,,,,, iiiiiliiin 1 1 1 I t 1 t 1 ) 11 1980 I I I I 1 1 I I I 1 1 1 1983 1982 1981 I A L I 1 I I ! 1 I1 I 1 1 I 1 1 I 1 II 1 1 1 1 j 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 i 11 1986 1985 1984 180 1987 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Intermediate materials Finished goods Period Total finished goods Consumer foods Finished goods excluding consumer foods Total Consumer goods finished con- Total Total 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983.. 1984 1985 1986 1986: Oct Nov Dec .. . 1987: Jan Feb Mar May June July r Oct 1 217.7 247.0 269.8 280.7 285.2 291.1 293.7 289.7 226.2 239.5 253.6 259.3 261.8 273.3 271.2 278.1 290.1 290.2 290.4 285.9 285.3 284.0 291.7 291.9 293.5 295.1 295.7 296.3 297.4 297.4 298.3 297.6 279.0 278.8 279.1 283.1 287.2 287.6 287.0 283.3 286.4 286.2 213.3 247.8 273.3 285.8 290.8 294.8 299.0 291.1 288.8 289.3 289.9 293.4 293.8 295.9 296.6 295.9 296.6 298.3 299.7 299.8 298.9 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. 22 211.5 250.8 276.5 287.8 291.4 294.1 297.3 283.5 279.2 279.4 280.2 285.0 285.9 288.7 289.4 288.2 289.3 291.5 293.3 292.4 291.7 Durable 183.2 206.2 218.6 226.7 233.1 236.8 241.5 246.8 251.0 252.2 252.0 252.7 250.0 250.6 252.5 252.1 252.1 252.6 251.8 255.5 255.0 Nondurable Capital equipment 231.3 283.9 319.6 333.6 335.3 337.3 339.3 311.2 300.7 300.1 301.5 308.9 311.7 316.0 316.0 314.3 316.0 319.2 322.5 318.9 318.1 216.5 239.8 264.3 279.4 287.2 294.0 300.5 306.4 308.7 309.8 310.2 310.8 310.1 310.5 311.3 311.6 311.4 312.0 312.6 314.8 313.5 sumer goods 217.9 248.9 271.3 281.0 284.6 290.3 291.8 284.9 284.8 284.7 284.8 286.2 286.7 288.7 290.6 291.2 292.1 293.3 293.1 293.7 293.1 Total Foods and feeds ' Other Crude materials Total Foodstuffs and Other stuffs 242.2 280.3 306.0 310.4 312.3 320.0 318.7 307.6 226.1 252.6 250.3 239.4 247.9 253.1 232.8 230.3 244.4 282.3 310.1 315.7 317.1 325.0 325.0 313.3 274.3 304.6 329.0 319.5 323.6 330.8 306.1 280.3 247.9 259.2 257.4 247.8 252.2 259.5 235.0 231.0 304.8 304.7 304.7 231.5 231.6 231.2 310.2 310.2 310.2 280.9 279.0 276.6 241.1 237.5 234.5 307.5 309.1 310.1 311.2 313.2 315.0 317.0 318.2 318.4 319.9 228.3 230.3 228.3 232.2 240.3 241.4 240.4 237.8 240.8 241.8 313.3 315.0 316.1 317.1 318.6 320.5 322.7 324.2 324.1 325.7 282.6 285.8 288.7 295.5 303.0 304.8 307.8 309.1 306.2 306.9 227.2 227.3 228.2 238.3 249.4 245.9 240.6 240.9 242.0 235.2 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 330.0 401.0 482.3 473.9 477.4 484.5 459.2 386.8 366.3 368.3 367.2 390.8 398.1 403.8 407.8 412.5 420.6 433.8 436.4 428.4 426.3 CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In October, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.4 percent, seasonally adjusted (0.3 percent not seasonally adjusted). The index was 4.5 percent above its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 360 INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 360 340 1340 320 320 300 300 ALL ITEMS 280 280 260 260 240 240 220 220 200 200 180 1979 1980 1981 Illllllllll 1982 180 1983 1985 1984 1987 1986 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967= 100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Housing Transportation All items Shelter Period All items * Total ' Renters' 1982 = 100) Homeowners' costs (Dec. 1982=100) NSA and repairs Fuel Appar- and upkeep other utilities Total ' New cars Motor fuel Medical care Bner- gy 2 food, energy, and shelter NSA Rel. imf.a 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 100.0 217.4 246.8 272.4 289.1 2984 311 1 3222 3284 16.2 234.5 2546 274.6 285 7 291 7 302 9 309 8 319 7 42.9 227.6 263.3 293.5 314.7 323 1 3365 349 9 3602 27.8 239.7 281.7 314.7 337.0 344 8 361 7 382 0 402 9 103 0 108 6 115 4 121 9 1986: Oct Nov Dec 330.5 330.8 331.1 325.2 326.5 327.2 361.9 362.0 362.7 408.3 409.3 410.3 1987: 333.1 334.4 335.9 337.7 338.7 340.1 340.8 342.7 344.4 345.3 328.6 329.6 329.2 330.2 332.0 334.4 333.8 333.9 335.6 336.9 364.4 365.8 367.2 368.2 368.9 370.1 370.9 373.1 373.1 373.8 412.2 414.3 416.5 418.0 419.2 420.1 421.4 424.1 424.7 427.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Maintenance 7.9 6.3 102 5 107 3 113 1 119 4 0.2 2564 285 7 3144 334 1 346 3 359 2 368 9 373 8 239 3 278 6 319 2 3508 3703 387 3 393 6 384 7 1666 1784 1869 191 8 196 5 200 2 206 0 207 8 27.3 212 0 249 7 2800 291 5 298 4 311 7 319 9 307 5 1660 179 3 190 2 197 6 202 6 208 5 215 2 224 4 2.9 2656 369 1 4109 3894 376 4 370 7 373 8 292 1 239 7 265 9 2945 328 7 357 3 379 5 403 1 433 5 7.4 275.9 361 1 410.0 416 1 419 3 423 6 4265 370 3 48.6 191.5 208.3 228.1 245.6 2584 271 2 281 6 291 2 123.6 124.1 124.5 121.1 121.3 121.5 379.0 377.1 380.0 376.7 374.9 374.3 209.0 209.6 209.5 302.5 303.6 303.6 228.0 229.7 230.9 263.4 261.7 260.9 443.0 445.3 448.2 347.1 345.3 344.6 293.9 294.8 295.5 125.4 126.0 126.7 127.0 127.2 127.7 128.8 129.2 128.8 128.5 122.0 122.6 123.2 123.7 124.2 124.3 124.4 125.4 125.8 126.9 382.1 381.9 383.4 382.4 381.9 385.0 392.4 391.3 390.5 390.9 375.9 377.1 377.6 378.1 378.1 381.0 380.8 383.2 381.2 378.5 210.4 211.8 215.4 218.6 219.1 217.3 215.9 216.0 218.3 221.1 308.3 309.8 311.8 313.4 314.4 316.0 317.8 320.0 320.5 322.0 231.8 229.3 229.4 230.4 231.1 232.0 233.2 233.3 233.5 234.8 278.0 289.5 296.2 298.4 299.7 303.6 307.2 316.4 315.9 315.5 450.2 451.7 453.7 456.5 459.1 462.1 464.6 466.3 468.6 470.7 354.9 361.5 365.2 366.2 366.8 372.2 372.5 378.7 376.8 373.5 297.0 297.4 298.8 300.5 301.4 301.9 303.0 303.8 304.4 305.9 8.0 19.6 1 Includes items not shown separately. Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc. also included through 1982. 3 Relative importance, December 1986. 2 4.6 5.4 and therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods. Data beginning 1987 calculated on a revised basis. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. NOTE.—Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Period Change from preceding period Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate Consumer goods Consumer goods Consumer goods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Total finished Excluding foods Foods goods Capital equipment Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA 12.8 11.8 7.1 3.7 .6 1.7 1.8 -2.3 1979 1980 1981.. . 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 17.5 14.2 8.5 4.2 -.8 .8 2.0 6.6 7.4 7.5 1.4 2.1 2.3 3.5 .5 2.9 11.1 13.5 9.2 4.0 1.6 2.1 .9 -1.4 8.8 11.4 9.2 3.9 1.9 1.8 2.7 2.1 Change, month to month Oct Nov Dec 0.3 .0 .1 0.9 -.2 g 0.0 .1 .3 0.4 .4 .1 4.1 2.7 1.8 9.3 2.6 1.0 1.9 2.2 1.6 3.2 4.2 3.4 1.9 1.0 .7 10.7 7.2 6.0 1987- Jan Feb Mar Apr May .4 .1 .5 .5 .2 .2 .4 0 .3 -.2 -1.8 -.1 .1 1.4 1.4 .1 o -1.3 1.1 1 1.7 .3 1.0 .2 4 .4 .8 .6 3 2 .2 2 .1 .3 .1 I .2 .2 .7 4 2.2 2.4 4.3 4.7 5.3 3.9 3.2 2.3 2.7 .3 93 -8.8 67 6.0 12.6 12.7 5.6 -5.3 17 -1.1 8.6 9.6 12.7 6.3 3.3 .8 2.9 7.3 4.4 .3 2.7 .4 .4 .6 1.9 1.2 .9 1.3 4.4 1.9 3.2 2.5 3.1 3.5 3.8 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.3 1.7 -.4 -3.3 -2.9 -1.9 1.3 2.6 5.8 3.3 5.3 2.2 1986: r July . •> Sept r Oct -2.6 -2.9 -2.8 5.2 5.8 7.0 7.4 6.4 6.6 4.6 5.2 2.6 1.6 2.4 2.8 2.7 -1.4 -1.9 -2.3 3.0 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.2 .8 .8 1.6 2.8 1.4 -1.4 .1 1.6 2.7 2.4 2.4 3.5 3.2 3.3 2.6 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Housing Transportation Shelter Period All items ' Food Total ' Total1 Renters' costs Homeowners' costs Fuel and other utilities Apparel and upkeep Total 1 New ears Motor fuel Medical care Energy2 All items less food, energy, and shelter Addendum: All items, percent change (annual rate) From previous quarter 3 From 3 months earlier From 6 months earlier From year earlier NSA Change, December to December, NSA 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 13.3 12.4 8.9 3.9 3.8 4.0 3.8 1.1 102 10.2 43 3.1 2.6 3.8 2.7 3.8 152 13.7 102 174 15.1 16.0 13.6 3.6 3.5 4.2 4.3 1.8 99 2.4 4.7 5.2 6.0 4.6 5.1 5.9 6.3 5.0 4.5 5.1 5.9 4.6 14.5 9.7 1.8 4.2 1.9 -5.7 5.5 6.8 3.6 1.6 2.9 2.0 2.9 .9 18.2 14.7 11.0 1.7 3.9 3.1 2.6 -5.9 52.2 7.4 18.9 7.5 9.4 6.8 1.6 -6.5 3.4 -1.7 2.4 -2.4 3.0 3.5 5.8 -30.6 10.1 10.0 12.5 11.0 6.4 6.1 6.7 7.7 37.4 18.1 11.9 1.3 -.5 .2 1.8 -19.7 9.9 9.4 6.1 5.0 4.4 3.7 3.4 7.2 11.3 13.5 10.4 6.1 3.2 4.3 3.6 1.9 Change, month to month 1986: Oct Nov Dec 0.2 .2 .2 0.4 .4 .2 0.0 .0 .2 0.4 .2 .2 0.4 .4 .3 0.4 .2 .2 -1.0 -.5 -.2 0.0 .3 -.0 0.1 .4 0 0.7 .7 .5 — 2.1 -.6 -.3 0.5 .5 .7 -1.9 -.5 -.2 0.4 .3 .2 1987: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct .7 .4 .4 .4 .3 .4 .2 .5 .2 .4 .4 .3 -.1 .3 .5 .7 -.2 .0 .5 .4 .5 .4 .4 .3 .2 .3 .2 .6 0 .2 .5 .5 .5 .4 .3 2 .3 .6 .1 .5 .7 .5 .6 .2 .2 .4 .9 .3 -.3 _2 .4 .5 .5 .4 .4 .1 .1 .8 .3 .9 .4 .3 .1 .1 0 .8 .4 .7 1.7 1.5 .2 -.8 -.6 .0 1.1 1.3 1.5 .5 .6 .5 .3 .5 .6 .7 2 .5 .4 6.6 4.1 2.3 .7 .4 1.3 1.2 3.0 -.2 -.1 .4 .3 .4 .6 .6 .7 .5 .4 .5 .4 3.0 1.9 1.0 .3 .2 1.5 .1 1.7 -.5 -.9 .5 .1 .5 .6 .3 .2 .4 .3 .2 .5 .6 -.5 -.7 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc.,3 also included through 1982. Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. NOTE.—Data beginning January 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeowner- 24 -1.1 .0 .4 .3 .4 .5 .0 .1 .6 2.6 5'.3" 4.9 4.0 2.6 3.0 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.2 1.5 1.3 1.1 4.4 5.2 6.2 5.3 4.9 4.6 3.7 4.3 3.6 4.2 3.5 4.1 4.3 4.8 5.0 5.4 4.5 4.6 4.1 3.9 1.4 2.1 3.0 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.9 4.3 4.3 4.5 ship costs and therefore are not strictly comparable with data for earlier periods. Data beginning 1987 calculated on a revised basis. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers in November were 3.1 percent above their October level. Prices paid by farmers in October were 1.2 percent above their July level. INDEX, 1977 =100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SCALE) 180 180 PRICES PAID \ 160 ... 160 140 140 120 120 PRICES RECEIVED - 100 100 80 80 I II 1 1 1 60 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 I 60 IN RATIO^ RATION 140 140 - 120 120 -—^_ 100 - 80 60 100 KAIIU ~^-^ - ^~^~~1 1 ~~"— 1 I I I I I I I I I I I minimi iimimit |III||||I|I Miiiuiiu IIIIIIIIIII IIIIIIIIIII ll||lllllll 1980 1982 1983 1984 1985 1 986 1979 1981 80 Tll|l|lllill 1 60 1 987 I/RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE [1977=100] Prices paid by farmers Prices received bv farmers Period 1979 1980 1981 1982 .. 1983 1984 1985 1986 1986: Oct Nov Dec 1987: Jan Feb Mar Apr June July Aus: Sept Oct Nov All farm products 132 134 139 133 135 142 128 123 121 124 120 121 122 123 125 129 131 128 127 129 127 131 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Percentage ratio of index of prices recei and wage rates. See also footnote 3. 3 Beginning March 1986, prices paid bv fa for each month the received/paid ratio is based on latest data availabl Livestock and products Crops 116 125 134 121 128 139 120 106 97 102 99 99 99 102 102 109 111 106 103 105 106 119 147 144 143 145 141 146 136 138 145 145 141 142 144 142 147 148 150 149 151 152 r !47 144 All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates 1 Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates 123 138 150 159 161 165 163 159 158 (3) (3) 159 (3) (3) 162 (3) (3) 164 (3) (3) 166 (3) 125 139 151 159 159 162 157 151 149 (3) (3) 149 (3) (3) 152 (3) (3) 154 (3) (3) 156 (3) Production items 125 138 148 153 152 155 151 145 142 (3) (3) 143 (3) (3) 147 (3) (3) 149 (3) (3) 151 (3) Ratio 2 107 97 92 84 84 86 79 77 77 78 76 76 77 77 77 80 81 78 77 79 77 79 NOTK.— The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1977 — 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES Growth in Ml accelerated sharply in October; growth in the broader aggregates rose a little. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,800 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,800 300 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS • AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Ml M2 MS Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OCDs) Ml plus overnight EPs and Eurodollars, MMMF balances {general purpose and broker/dealer), MMDAs, and savings and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, term RPs, term Eurodollars, and institution-only MMMF balances M3 plus other liquid assets Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 416.6 443.2 481.3 526.9 557.5 627.0 730.5 1,633.1 1,795.5 1,953.8 2,184.6 2,369.1 2,569.5 2,801.2 1,990.9 2,236.4 2,443.1 2,692.8 2,985.4 3,205.2 '3,492.2 2,327.6 2,598.9 2,853.0 3,154.6 3,529.3 3,838.6 4,139.9 3,880.7 4,261.5 4,645.3 5,195.5 5,932.9 6,746.9 '7,601.7 6.5 6.4 8.6 9.5 5.8 12.5 16.5 8.9 9.9 8.8 11.8 8.4 8.5 9.0 10.2 12.3 9.2 10.2 10.9 7.4 9.0 9.6 9.8 9.0 11.8 14.2 13.7 12.7 1986- Oct Nov Dec 701.4 712.4 730.5 2,761.4 2,776.3 2,801.2 3,443.7 3,462.4 '3,492.2 4,081.7 4,107.4 4,139.9 '7,424.2 '7,500.9 '7,601.7 17.1 16.7 19.8 10.8 10.0 10.3 9.4 9.2 9.5 12.6 12.8 13.7 1987- Jan Feb Mar 737.7 737.4 739.5 750.3 753.1 746.6 747.6 751.1 751.3 760.7 2,823.5 2,823.0 2,826.5 2,839.9 2,840.4 2,841.6 2,848.0 2,863.4 2,876.9 2,893.3 3,518.4 3,522.3 3,527.3 3,544.0 3,560.3 3,577.5 3,585.5 3,608.5 3,626.5 3,650.3 4,172.6 4,180.4 4,169.7 4,181.5 4,215.0 4,229.4 4,223.7 4,251.6 4,282.3 '7,666.1 '7,697.9 '7,748.3 7,806.8 7,865.2 7,917.0 7,956.6 8,010.6 8,073.2 18.9 15.2 13.8 14.4 11.8 4.5 2.7 3.8 3.2 2.8 9.8 7.8 6.7 5.8 4.7 2.9 1.7 2.9 3.6 3.8 9.2 7.5 6.2 5.9 5.7 4.9 3.9 5.0 5.7 6.1 13.6 11.9 10.7 10.6 9.9 8.5 7.7 8.3 8.6 Period 19801981: 19821983: 19841985: 1986- May ' July ' Sept Ocf 1 Consists of outstanding credit market dtibt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancia! sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. 26 L Debt Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors (monthly average) * Percent change from year or 6 months earlier 2 Ml NOTE.—See p. 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. M2 MS Debt COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Period Demand deposits Currency Other checkable deposits (OCDs) Overnight repurchase agreements (RPs), net, plus overnight Eurodollars NSA 1980: Dec 1981: Dec 1982: Dec 1983: Dec 1984: Dec 1985: Dec 1986: Dec 1986: Oct Nov Dec 1987: Jan Feb Mar Apr... May July r... Aug r Sepf Oct" 265.2 234.6 237.9 242.3 248.3 272.2 308.3 30.5 80.2 104.7 131.4 145.5 178.3 232.3 181.2 293.4 182.4 297.8 183.5 308.3 220.3 225.8 232.3 305.1 300.8 299.3 303.9 303.9 297.4 296.2 296.4 294.1 300.4 240.1 242.9 245.7 250.7 252.2 251.2 252.6 254.6 255.6 257.2 116.7 124.1 134.3 148.3 158.5 170.6 183.5 186.0 187.2 187.7 188.9 190.2 191.1 192.1 193.2 194.5 196.2 r Money market mutual fund balances General purpose and broker/ dealer NSA Institution only NSA Money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) Savings deposits Small denomination time deposits l Large denomination time deposits * NSA Term repurchase agreements (RPs) Term Eurodollars (net) NSA NSA Savings bonds Shortterm Treasury securities Bankers' acceptances Commercial paper 28.3 35.9 38.8 53.8 56.3 70.2 78.4 61.6 150.6 185.2 138.2 167.5 176.5 207.6 15.2 38.0 51.1 43.2 62.7 65.1 84.1 0.0 .0 43.2 379.0 417.4 513.2 571.4 400.8 344.3 357.3 306.2 288.8 303.6 366.3 728.7 823.3 851.0 783.8 885.3 884.2 853.5 259.8 302.1 326.2 326.2 417.0 436.1 447.1 34.0 36.0 34.5 51.8 61.9 65.7 84.0 50.3 67.5 81.7 91.5 82.9 76.6 83.0 72.3 67.8 68.0 71.1 74.2 79.4 91.7 133.4 149.4 183.7 212.6 263.5 304.6 288.1 32.1 40.0 44.5 45.1 45.7 42.4 37.5 98.9 105.3 113.6 133.0 160.3 206.6 230.2 78.1 77.5 78.4 206.9 207.1 207.6 84.5 84.4 84.1 564.4 568.7 571.4 350.5 358.5 366.3 864.7 857.1 853.5 445.5 445.8 447.1 78.8 83.8 84.0 78.0 79.3 83.0 87.7 89.8 91.7 284.2 288.8 288.1 37.7 38.0 37.5 228.4 228.4 230.2 84.7 80.1 76.9 76.9 76.0 74.5 75.1 79.1 82.7 85.0 209.0 210.7 211.6 211.0 208.9 209.6 209.8 212.8 216.5 219.3 84.0 84.7 84.9 83.1 81.8 81.3 83.4 83.4 80.7 81.6 574.3 570.8 570.6 565.5 557.1 553.5 548.1 543.7 539.3 532.7 376.7 387.2 396.3 406.1 411.7 415.2 416.7 419.9 419.3 416.7 851.6 848.5 846.1 843.9 843.2 850.1 858.5 865.5 871.6 882.7 83.6 449.7 87.2 448.2 87.2 450.1 454.6 r94.5 459.7 * 102.8 465.1 r 107.8 465.1 107.5 466.8 108.0 468.9 109.7 476.2 106.9 84.8 87.6 88.2 83.9 87.0 r 89.7 86.8 93.5 99.0 98.0 92.7 93.5 94.3 95.1 95.9 96.5 97.3 97.8 98.2 284.1 285.6 269.2 256.3 262.2 259.8 249.1 252.2 256.3 37.8 39.3 39.8 41.2 42.4 43.5 43.4 42.9 43.8 239.7 239.8 239.1 244.9 254.3 252.1 248.4 250.2 257.5 1 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. NOTE.— Travelers checks are a component ol money stock but are not shown here. „ , Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Net change in installment credit outstanding * Installment credit outstanding (end of period) Period Total Mobile home Other Total Automobile Revolving Mobile home Other Automobile Revolving 261,976 296,483 295,763 310,965 325,136 373,048 446,183 522,805 577,789 98,739 112,475 111,936 119,610 125,440 145,874 172,352 208,057 245,056 45,202 53,357 54,894 60,750 66,007 78,369 99,620 122,021 134,940 16,921 18,207 18,264 19,308 21,728 22,919 24,710 25,488 25,710 101,114 112,444 110,669 111,297 111,961 125,886 149,501 167,239 172,083 40,501 34,507 -720 15,202 14,171 47,912 73,135 76,622 54,984 17,791 13,736 -539 7,674 5,830 20,434 26,478 35,705 36,999 8,513 8,155 1,537 5,856 5,257 12,362 21,251 22,401 12,919 559 1,286 57 1,044 2,420 1,191 1,791 778 222 13,638 11,330 1 775 628 664 13,925 23,615 17,738 4,844 1986: Sept Oct Nov Dec.. 571,275 576,862 577,645 577,789 239,015 243,395 242,998 245,056 133,118 133,812 134,388 134,940 25,731 25,783 25,732 25,710 173,412 173,873 174,527 172,083 7,614 5,587 782 144 7,813 4,380 -396 2,057 58 694 576 552 209 52 51 -21 67 461 654 — 2,444 1987: 578,578 579,591 579,913 583,594 583,277 587,821 591,175 596,182 602,243 245,471 246,064 246,290 247,662 247,578 250,130 250,981 254,013 257,255 134,916 135,663 135,166 136,706 136,869 137,401 138,741 139,837 141,861 25,852 25,789 25,614 25,625 25,542 25,685 25,860 25,695 25,600 172,338 172,075 172,844 173,599 173,288 174,605 175,595 176,637 177,527 789 1,013 322 3,681 -318 4,545 3,354 5,006 6,061 416 592 226 1,373 85 2,553 850 3,033 3,242 -23 746 -496 1,540 163 532 1,340 1,096 2,024 141 63 -175 12 -84 143 175 -165 95 255 -263 768 756 -312 1,318 989 1,043 890 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug; r Sept " , 1 For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK LOANS AND SECURITIES, AND RESERVES Commercial and industrial loans rose 0.9 percent in October. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 I— 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 LOANS AND LEASES 800 800 600 600 400 400 U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 200 200 160 160 OTHER SECURITIES 120 120 miiliim 100 1979 1980 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 Illllllllll 1987 1986 - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 100 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Depository institutions 3 All commercial banks 1 Period Total loans and securities 2 Total 2 Commercial and industrial loans U.S. Government securities Borrowings (millions of dollars, unadjusted) Reserves adjusted for changes in reserve requirements Loans and leases Other securities Total Nonborrowed Required Total Seasonal Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 1,136.1 1,239.0 1,307.2 1,401.0 1,553.0 1,722.6 1,908.0 2,089.8 849.8 913.9 967.2 1,033.8 1,123.5 1,319.9 1,456.0 1,583.0 291.4 325.7 355.2 392.4 414.1 473.1 499.9 541.4 144.3 170.6 179.3 201.8 259.4 260.6 271.4 309.9 141.9 154.5 160.7 165.4 170.2 142.1 180.6 196.9 28.97 30.81 32.08 34.32 36.11 36.91 46.06 56.17 27.50 29.12 31.44 33.69 35.33 36.72 44.74 55.34 28.53 30.29 31.76 33.82 35.55 39.06 45.00 54.80 1,473 1,690 636 634 774 3,186 1,318 827 81 116 54 33 96 113 56 38 1986- Oct Nov Dec 2,052.4 2,063.5 2,089.8 1,553.0 1,561.5 1,583.0 520.0 525.7 541.4 299.6 304.1 309.9 199.8 197.9 196.9 53.23 54.49 56.17 52.38 53.74 55.34 52.48 53.51 54.80 841 752 827 99 70 38 1987- Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2,118.3 2,119.7 2,126.2 2,147.3 2,160.6 2,167.1 2,169.5 2,189.0 2,206.7 2,225.8 1,611.8 1,610.7 1,616.4 1,634.3 1,642.9 1,651.7 1,652.8 1,665.5 1,680.4 1,699.3 554.1 553.8 551.7 553.9 555.9 558.0 555.5 555.6 r 560.5 565.7 316.3 315.2 314.3 315.8 320.1 316.9 319.8 328.6 r 331.7 332.3 190.2 193.9 195.5 197.2 197.6 198.5 196.9 194.9 r 194.6 194.2 56.88 56.87 56.85 57.95 58.35 57.71 57.60 57.88 57.83 58.49 56.30 56.32 56.33 56.96 57.32 56.93 56.93 57.23 56.89 57.54 55.82 55.66 55.94 57.13 57.27 56.52 56.84 56.84 57.03 57.37 580 556 527 993 1,035 776 672 647 940 943 34 71 91 120 196 259 283 279 231 189 197919801981: 19821983: 198419851986- Julv Sept Oct p 2 3 Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States. Data are averages of daily figures. Hour'.-?: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Hvsfein. 28 SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Uses Sources External Period Total Internal Credit market funds 1 Total Total 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1986- I n m IV 1987- I p H .. Securities and mortgages Loans and short-term paper Total Other 2 Capital expenditures 3 Increase in financial assets Discrepancy (sources less uses) 328.6 352.7 345.9 383.4 327.4 432.3 518.5 492.3 487.1 182.3 197.6 200.1 239.5 242.3 285.7 336.3 355.4 351.5 146.3 155.1 145.8 143.9 85.1 146.6 182.2 136.9 135.6 85.0 87.8 92.7 94.5 80.4 88.6 121.6 85.2 111.2 33.2 20.9 53.2 22.8 44.0 57.3 74 15.3 35.1 51.8 66.9 39.5 71.7 36.4 31.3 129.0 69.9 76.1 61.3 67.2 53.2 49.3 4.7 58.1 60.7 51.7 24.4 309.7 370.6 352.1 368.5 303.5 399.8 488.0 442.5 425.8 217.0 238.3 243.7 286.5 256.5 274.7 370.9 342.8 339.2 92.7 132.3 108.4 82.0 47.0 125.1 117.1 99.7 86.6 18.9 -17.9 -6.2 14.8 24.0 32.5 30.5 49.9 61.3 426.2 499.3 442.8 580.2 360.6 350.9 352.2 342.2 65.6 148.4 90.6 238.0 54.1 117.0 64.9 209.0 61.3 51.7 32.5 -5.1 72 65.3 32.4 214.1 11.5 31.4 25.7 29.0 387.2 426.2 374.3 515.6 364.6 340.5 321.5 330.2 22.6 85.7 52.8 185.4 38.9 73.2 68.4 64.5 390.0 405.0 343.2 340.8 46.8 64.2 85 50.9 44.8 18.3 53 3 69.2 55.3 13.4 377.0 395.1 353.5 345.9 23.5 49.2 13.1 9.9 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances,, and foreign branch profits,, dividends,, and subsidiaries' earnings retained abroad. 2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. 3 Piant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars, except as noted] Current liabilities Current assets End of period Total QFR-FKB series: 2 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 ... 1984 1985 1983- IV Cash U.S. Government securities Notes and accounts receivable Inventories Other current assets Total Notes and accounts payable Other current liabilities Net working capital Current ratio 1 1,043.7 1,214.8 1,328.3 1,419.6 1,437.1 1,575.9 1,703.0 1,784.6 105.5 118.0 127.0 135.6 147.8 171.8 173.6 189.2 17.2 16.7 18.7 17.7 23.0 31.0 36.2 33.0 388.0 459.0 507.5 532.5 517.4 583.0 633.1 671.5 431.8 505.1 543.0 584.0 579.0 603.4 656.9 666.0 101.1 116.0 132.1 149.7 169.8 186.7 203.2 224.9 669.5 807.3 890.6 971.3 986.0 1,059.6 1,163.6 1,233.6 383.0 460.8 514.4 547.1 550.7 595.7 647.8 682.7 286.5 346.5 376.2 424.1 435.3 463.9 515.8 550.9 374.3 407.5 437.8 448.3 451.1 516.3 539.5 551.0 1.559 1.505 1.492 1.462 1.458 1.487 1.464 1.447 1,575.9 171.8 31.0 583.0 603.4 186.7 1,059.6 595.7 463.9 516.3 1.487 526.5 523.7 530.8 539.5 1.482 1.465 1.460 1.464 1984: I II Ill IV 1,619.5 1,650.0 1,685.9 1,703.0 167.6 164.9 161.3 173.6 35.4 37.2 33.0 36.2 606.4 622.6 639.1 633.1 622.2 632.5 659.3 656.9 187.9 192.9 193.2 203.2 1,093.1 1,126.3 1,155.0 1,163.6 601.9 623.4 642.2 647.8 491.2 502.9 512.9 515.8 1985: I II III IV 1,722.7 1,734.6 1,763.0 1,784.6 167.5 167.1 176.3 189.2 35.7 35.4 32.6 33.0 650.3 654.1 661.0 671.5 665.7 666.7 675.0 666.0 203.5 211.2 218.2 224.9 1,174.1 1,182.9 1,211.9 1,233.6 636.9 651.7 670.4 682.7 537.1 531.2 541.5 550.9 548.6 551.7 551.1 551.0 1.467 1.466 1.455 1.447 1986: I " 1,795.7 195.3 31.0 663.4 679.6 226.3 1,222.3 668.4 553.9 573.4 1.469 the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census from the Federal Trade Commission. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Comrnerct of the Census), and Federal Trade Commission. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates fell in November. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM 16 16 1986 1987 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: SEE IA81E BELC [Percent per annum] U.S. Treasury security yields Period 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1986: 3-month bills (new issues) 1 10-year Prime rate charged by banks 5 New-home mortgage yields (FHLBB) 6 14.17 13.79 12.04 12.71 11.37 9.02 14.76 11.89 8.89 10.16 8.01 6.39 13.41 11.02 8.50 8.80 7.69 6.33 18.87 14.86 10.79 12.04 9.93 8.33 14.70 15.14 12.57 12.38 11.55 10.17 5.18 5.35 5.49 6.56 6.46 6.43 7.43 7.25 7.11 7.12 6.86 6.93 8.86 8.68 8.49 5.61 5.69 5.88 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.50 10.02 9.91 9.69 5.45 5.59 5.56 5.76 5.75 5.69 5.78 6.00 6.32 6.40 5.81 6.41 6.56 6.58 7.32 8.02 7.82 7.74 8.03 8.67 8.75 7.99 7.08 7.25 7.25 8.02 8.61 8.40 8.45 8.76 9.42 9.52 8.86 6.63 6.66 6.71 7.62 8.10 7.89 7.83 7.90 8.36 8.84 8.09 8.36 8.38 8.36 8.85 9.33 9.32 9.42 9.67 10.18 10.52 10.01 5.76 5.99 6.10 6.50 7.04 7.00 6.72 6.81 7.55 7.29 7.17 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.50 7.75-7.75 8.00-8.25 8.25-8.25 8.25-8.25 8.25-8.25 8 25 8 75 8.75-9.00 9.00-8.75 9.51 9.23 9.14 9.21 9.37 9.45 9.41 9.38 9.37 9.26 6.84 5.12 5.80 5.74 6.01 5.70 8.54 8.01 7.96 7.96 7.98 8.05 9.36 8.90 8.84 8.80 8.83 8.95 8.89 8.48 7.98 8.13 8.10 8.13 10.68 10.25 10.08 9.97 9.97 10.01 7.90 7.35 7.20 7.05 7.14 7.21 6 00 6 00 6 00 6 00 6.00-6.00 6 00 6 00 6.00-6.00 6 00 6 00 9.25-9.00 9.00-9.00 9.00-8.75 8.75-8.75 8.75-8.75 8.75-8.75 C Bank-discount basis. Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Series excludes public utility issues for January 17, 1984 through October 11, 1984 due to lack of appropriate issues. Discount rate (N.Y. F.K. Bank) 5 11.23 11.57 9.47 10.15 9.18 7.38 Sept Oct Nov " 30 Prime commercial paper, 6 months1 13.91 13.00 11.10 12.44 10.62 7.68 July 2 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) 4 14.44 12.92 10.45 11.89 9.64 7.06 1987- Jan . Feb Mar Apr May 1 3-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor's) s 14.029 10.686 8.63 9.58 7.48 5.98 Oct Nov Dec Week ended: 1987: Oct 24 31 Nov 7 14 21 28 Constant maturities 2 5 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. I 6 Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices fell in November. INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 (RATIO SCALE) 240 220 200 180 160 240 220 200 180 160 140 140 COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX (NYSE) 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 Illllllllll 40 1979 1980 1981 1982 40 1984 1983 1986 1985 1987 PERCENT PERCENT 20 20 EAR MINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS (S&P) 15 r"^Hr^ i ii 1 1 1 - 10 15 10 -v_ 5 \ 0 1 1 ^ 1 1 1 1979 1980 1981 1982 -—— - 1 1 T^ ^-^"*~ 1 1 1983 1 1 1984 1 1 1 1985 1 1 1986 1 l 1 1 | COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION Common stock prices l New York Stock Exchange indexes (E ec. 31, 1965 = 5 J ) Common stock5yields (percent) 2 Period Composite 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1986' Oct Dec 1987- Jan Feb Mar July Sept Oct Nov p Week ended: 1987: Oct 24 31 Nov 1 14 21 28 i 1 Industrial Transportation 3 4 Finance Utility Dow-Jones industrial3 average Standard & Poor's composite index (194143 = 10)4 Dividendprice ratio Earningsprice ratio 74.02 68.93 92.63 92.46 108.09 136.00 85.44 78.18 107.45 108.01 123.79 155.85 72.61 60.41 89.36 85.63 104.11 119.87 38.91 39.75 47.00 46.44 56.75 71.36 73.52 71.99 95.34 89.28 114.21 147.20 932.92 884.36 1,190.34 1,178.48 1,328.23 1,792.76 128.05 119.71 160.41 160.46 186.84 236.34 5.20 5.81 4.40 4.64 4.25 3.49 11.96 11.60 8.03 10.02 8.12 6.09 136.74 140.84 142.12 156.56 162.10 163.85 120.04 122.27 121.26 73.38 75.77 76.07 143.89 142.97 144.29 1,817.04 1,883.65 1,924.07 237.36 245.09 248.61 3.49 3.40 3.38 5.98 151.17 160.23 166.43 163.88 163.00 169.58 174.28 184.18 178.39 157.13 137.21 175.60 189.17 198.95 199.03 198.78 206.61 214.12 226.49 219.52 189.86 163.42 126.61 135.49 138.55 137.91 141.30 150.39 157.48 164.02 158.58 140.95 117.57 78.54 78.19 77.15 72.74 71.64 74.25 74.18 78.20 76.13 73.27 69.86 153.32 158.41 162.41 150.52 145.97 152.73 152.25 160.94 154.08 137.35 118.30 2,065.13 2,202.34 2,292.61 2,302.64 2,291.11 2,384.02 2,481.72 2,655.01 2,570.80 2,224.59 1,931.87 264.51 280.93 292.47 289.32 289.12 301.38 310.09 329.36 318.66 280.16 245.01 3.17 3.02 2.93 2.99 3.02 2.92 2.83 2.69 2.78 3.25 3.66 137.07 133.16 140.76 136.47 136.45 136.53 163.11 157.78 167.75 162.15 162.59 162.92 120.57 112.48 122.26 116.75 115.85 116.63 68.41 69.13 71.16 69.95 69.45 69.35 121.89 115.97 121.73 118.52 117.49 116.58 1,901.76 1,883.82 1,973.47 1,914.55 1,923.91 1,936.01 243.30 238.14 252.08 243.65 243.48 243.46 3.46 3.84 3.59 3.70 3.65 3.69 Average of daily closing prices. Includes all the" stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE. Includes 30 stocks. Includes 500 stocks. 5 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Ea2 1987 5.18 4.75 price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. NOTE,—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first month of fiscal year 1988, there was a deficit of $30.7 billion compared with a deficit of $25.3 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,100 11,100 RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS!/ 1,000 1,000 900 OUTLAYS!/ 900 800 800 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 -100 -100 -200 - -200 H979 1980 1982 1981 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 FISCAL YEARS I/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Fiscal year or period Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) Receipts Outlays Gross Federal debt (end of period) Off-budget On-budget Total Surplus or deficit (-) Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) Total Held by the public 1977 1978 1979 279.1 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 332.3 371.8 96.0 409.2 458.7 503.5 -53.2 -73.7 -14.7 -53.6 -59.2 -40.2 216.6 231.7 63.2 278.7 314.2 365.3 271.9 302.2 76.6 328.5 369.1 403.5 -55.3 -70.5 -13.3 -49.7 -54.9 -38.2 62.5 66.4 18.0 76.8 85.4 98.0 60.4 69.6 19.4 80.7 89.7 100.0 2.0 -3.2 -1.4 -3.9 -4.3 -2.0 544.1 631.9 646.4 709.1 780.4 833.8 396.9 480.3 498.3 551.8 610.9 644.6 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 851.8 -73.8 -78.9 -127.9 -207.8 -185.3 403.9 469.1 474.3 453.2 500.4 476.6 543.0 594.3 661.2 686.0 -72.7 -73.9 -120.0 -208.0 -185.6 113.2 130.2 143.5 147.3 166.1 114.3 135.2 151.4 147.1 165.8 -1.1 -5.0 -7.9 .2 .3 914.3 1,003.9 1,147.0 1,381.9 1,576.7 715.1 794.4 929.4 1,141.8 1,312.6 1985 1986 1987 " 1988 (estimates) l 734.1 769.1 854.1 909.0 946.3 989.8 1,002.1 1,032.3 -212.3 -220.7 -148.0 -123.3 547.9 568.9 640.7 667.8 769.5 806.3 808.3 829.7 -221.6 -237.5 -167.6 -161.9 186.2 200.2 213.4 241.2 176.8 183.5 193.8 202.6 9.4 16.7 19.6 38.6 1,827.5 2,130.1 2,354.3 2,586.9 1,509.9 1,746.1 1,896.1 2,015.8 59.0 62.4 84.3 93.1 -25.3 -30.7 43.9 46.0 68.8 76.9 -25.0 -30.9 15.1 16.4 15.5 16.2 g .2 2,143.0 2,388.7 1,751.5 1,923.4 1975 1976 Transition quarter First month: Fiscal year 1987.. . Fiscal year 1988 1 Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1988 Budget, Office of Management and Budget, August 17, 1987. 32 iources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first month of fiscal year 1988, receipts were $3.4 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $8.8 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 400 400 — RECEIPTS!/ INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES 300 __-"-"""""" .- ' 300 '" SOCIAL INSURANCE TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS 200 CORPORATION INCOME TAXES 100 j 1 1 0 _NONDEFENSE -OUTLAYS-!/ - 700 100 .^n-n-rrrT. T "^ OTHER RECEIPTS 0 200 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 NATIONAL DEFENSE 300 300 200 200 100 100 1979 1980 1981 1982 1984 1983 1985 1986 1988 1987 FISCAL YEARS V INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Oil-budget and off-budget outlays On-budget and off-budget receipts Fiscal year Total Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes Social insurance taxes and contributions National defense Other Total Total Department of Defense, military International affairs Health Medicare Income security Social security Net interest Other 1976 1977 1978 1979 298.1 355.6 399.6 463.3 131.6 157.6 181.0 217.8 41.4 54.9 60.0 65.7 90.8 106.5 121.0 138.9 34.3 36.6 37.7 40.8 371.8 409.2 458.7 503.5 89.6 97.2 104.5 116.3 88.1 95.3 102.3 113.7 6.4 6.4 7.5 7.5 15.7 17.3 18.5 20.5 15.8 19.3 22.8 26.5 60.8 61.0 61.5 66.4 73.9 85.1 93.9 104.1 26.7 29.9 35.4 42.6 82.8 93.0 114.7 119.6 L980 1981.... 1982 1983 1984 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 244.1 285.9 297.7 288.9 298.4 64.6 61.1 49.2 37.0 56.9 157.8 182.7 201.5 209.0 239.4 50.6 69.5 69.3 65.6 71.8 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 851.8 134.0 157.5 185.3 209.9 227.4 131.0 153.8 180.7 204.4 220.8 12.7 13.1 12.3 11.8 15.9 23.2 26.9 27.4 28.6 30.4 32.1 39.1 46.6 52.6 57.5 86.5 99.7 107.7 122.6 112.7 118.5 139.6 156.0 170.7 178.2 52.5 68.7 85.0 89.8 111.1 131.4 133.5 125.4 122.3 118.6 .... 734.1 769.1 854.1 909.0 334.5 349.0 392.6 396.1 61.3 63.1 83.9 105.4 265.2 283.9 303.3 331.8 73.0 946.3 252.7 73.1 989.8 273.4 74.3 1,002.1 '282.0 75.7 1,032.3 297.5 245.4 265.6 274.0 289.3 16.2 14.2 11.8 14.8 33.5 35.9 40.0 40.9 65.8 70.2 75.1 73.2 128.2 119.8 123.5 124.8 188.6 198.8 207.4 220.1 129.4 136.0 138.5 144.7 131.8 141.7 123.9 116.3 ?irst month: Fiscal year 1987 Fiscal year 1988 . 59.0 62.4 31.1 32.4 .5 1.9 21.2 22.2 23.2 25.9 22.5 25.3 1.3 1.0 3.2 3.6 7.0 6.6 10.4 10.2 16.7 17.4 10.0 11.4 12.6 16.9 1985 1986 1987 * 1988 (estimates) ... l 1 Estimates from Mid-Session Rei Ugust 17, 1987. 3 of the 1988 Budget, Office of Management and 6.2 5.9 84.3 93.1 NOTE.—Data shown here exclude the transition quarter. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the third quarter, according to revised estimates, Federal receipts fell $1.9 billion (annual rate) and Federal expenditures fell $3.9 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1,200 1,000 1,000 EXPENDITURES 800 800 600 600 RECEIPTS 400 400 200 200 SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-) -200 -200 i i i 1979 I I I I 1980 I I I 1982 1981 1983 I I 1984 1985 1986 1987 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Government expenditures Federal Government receipts Period Total Fiscal year: 1984 1985 1986 Calendar year: 1983 1984 1985 1986 1982- IV 1983: IV 1984: IV 1985: I II III IV 1986- I II Ill IV 1987: I II III T Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Contributions for social insurance Total Purchases of goods and services Transfer payments Grantsin-aid to State and local governments Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Surplus or deficit (-), national income and product accounts 711.9 776.4 814.2 302.5 340.6 358.0 75.3 74.3 80.3 54.9 56.0 51.7 279.2 305.6 324.1 873.0 961.0 1,027.8 297.2 340.4 368.4 352.2 374.0 394.8 90.7 97.8 107.4 109.7 128.0 134.3 23.3 20.7 22.9 0.1 -.1 .0 -161.0 -184.5 -213.6 659.9 726.0 788.6 827.4 633.1 675.5 742.7 795.3 759.0 794.9 805.1 807.6 816.9 832.4 852.5 294.5 310.3 346.6 363.0 303.0 291.9 326.0 361.2 317.5 351.0 356.7 352.8 357.6 365.2 376.4 61.3 75.2 76.1 83.7 252.5 284.7 310.6 329.8 283.5 310.5 353.9 366.2 293.2 276.1 326.0 336.3 339.4 361.9 378.0 356.7 368.4 371.2 368.6 348.6 354.9 380.1 399.9 347.4 352.5 362.1 373.9 377.0 383.7 385.8 389.9 398.3 405.9 405.7 86.2 93.6 99.7 106.9 84.5 86.0 96.3 95.9 98.9 100.2 103.7 105.4 109.6 109.5 102.8 22.9 21.2 20.5 23.3 — .4 .2 -.2 .0 -176.0 -169.6 -196.0 -204.7 236.1 259.8 290.7 304.9 308.8 311.7 316.9 325.8 328.1 330.7 334.5 835.9 895.6 984.6 1,032.0 835.7 844.7 930.2 958.2 969.4 990.8 1,020.2 1,003.7 1,047.1 1,036.1 1,041.2 94.3 115.6 130.2 135.7 46.4 70.2 69.7 74.2 73.5 79.1 77.8 78.7 81.3 84.3 90.5 51.6 55.7 55.2 50.9 47.6 53.6 56.2 55.0 59.2 53.1 53.7 50.4 49.9 52.1 51.1 87.2 101.0 125.3 127.7 130.4 129.7 133.0 134.9 135.9 134.2 137.8 23.4 29.1 21.0 24.5 22.6 15.3 19.7 16.8 34.9 15.3 26.3 .0 -202.6 .0 -169.2 .6 -187.5 .1 -1.0 .0 .0 -162.9 -210.3 -195.8 -215.0 -196.1 -230.2 -203.7 -188.7 879.3 922.9 "921.0 381.5 415.6 404.2 103.0 107.9 "112.7 53.3 54.2 53.9 341.5 345.2 350.2 1,049.8 1,062.1 1,058.2 366.9 379.6 378.8 406.7 412.0 416.9 102.2 106.0 103.5 139.5 139.8 143.2 34.3 24.8 15.8 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 34 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 -170.5 .0 -139.2 .0 "- 137.2 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Industrial production (1977=100; seasonally adjusted) Period United States Canada Japan France Germany Italy Consumer prices (1967=100) United Kingdom United States l Canada France Germany 282.3 296.2 294.2 332.7 304.1 373.1 175.8 186.9 196.8 398.0 472.4 549.4 423.6 473.9 289.1 243.5 273.9 303.5 298.4 321.0 309.7 538.3 335.0 348.3 362.8 316.6 203.3 208.2 631.8 311.1 407.9 439.5 565.1 323.0 324.9 465.1 212.7 212.2 698.8 764.7 805.2 211.0 210.8 211.2 822.0 825.3 827.8 623.9 629.2 212.1 212.2 212.2 212.8 212.9 213.3 213.3 213.1 212.6 212.9 832.8 839.4 633.7 636.2 637.5 841.9 645.1 845.3 848.7 645.7 645.7 645.2 108.6 111.0 103.1 109.2 121.4 123.7 125.1 108.1 108.6 97.9 104.3 119.0 125.2 126.8 118.9 120.1 120.6 124.7 138.4 144.8 144.4 106 103 101 102 105 106 107 107 105 102 103 106 112 114 114.7 112.1 109.6 103.9 107.1 108.4 111.4 100 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986" 1986: Oct Nov Dec 125.3 125.7 126.8 126.2 126.2 128.5 143.8 141.9 146.0 109 107 107 116 114 112 111.0 112.2 111.1 111 111 111 330.5 330.8 366.9 368.9 369.5 325.7 480.9 324.1 331.1 481.4 481.9 1987: Jan Feb Mar 126.2 127.1 127.4 127.4 128.2 129.1 130.6 131.0 r !309 131 7 128.0 129.4 130.2 130.0 130.5 132.2 132.3 133.8 145.5 144.6 147.1 145.1 143.4 149.0 149.8 104 108 109 108 109 111 111 113 112 116 116 114 112 111.5 114.8 117.3 115.2 119.3 115.2 111 113 113 113 114 112 115 333.1 370.3 334.4 335.9 337.7 338.7 371.9 322.2 322.2 323.5 326.4 327.0 326.3 324.7 325.0 327.9 1980 1981 May July Sept" Oct" 1 Data relate to all urban consumers. 96 98 101 103 108 110 United Kingdom Japan 246.8 272.4 322.2 328.4 340.1 340.8 342.7 344.4 345.3 477.6 323.5 373.5 375.3 377.3 378.5 381.3 381.5 381.5 486.2 487.2 487.7 490.3 491.2 492.1 493.3 494.3 382.9 Italy 836.1 851.2 853.8 859.8 867.5 514.7 599.4 619.9 631.3 647.1 649.0 652.2 Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and International Trade Administration). U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Billions of dollars; monthly data not seasonally adjusted] Merchandise exports Period Revised statistical month, adjust- ed 2 Revised statistical month 1 Statistical month Food, beverages, Crude mate- General imports 4 (statistical month except as noted) Total 3 Man- Re- ufactured goods vised statistical month and tobacco rials and fuels 206.9 206.4 33.2 27.0 27.0 27.3 22.2 20.2 33.0 33.5 29.6 31.5 28.3 26.5 154.3 139.7 132.4 143.1 145.4 148.7 16.9 18.6 17.9 17.8 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.4 16.2 18.7 21.1 198 200 20.3 20.3 19.5 20.2 1.6 1.6 1.9 18 18 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 23 22 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.4 Total * 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 23 3.7 21 2.3 216.4 2010.5 205.6 224.0 218.7 217.9 218.8 212.8 213.1 226.8 216.6 217.3 238.7 228.9 207.1 195.9 212.0 Total (c.i.f. Statistical month Food, beverages, and tobacco Crude mate- rials and fuels Exports (f.a.s.) less imports (customs value) va ue) Revised statisti- Manufactured goods Revised statistical month Statistical month cal month, adjusted2 Exports (f.a.s.) less imports (c.i.f. value) Revised statisti- cal Revised statisti- month, adjust- month -34.6 -38.4 -64.2 -39.7 -42.6 -69.3 -107.0 -122.4 -132.5 -133.6 — 149.4 -156.2 -127.6 -139.7 -166.3 Revised statistical month ed 2 cal Customs value F.a.s. value 1981 Merchandise trade balance Merchandise imports Domestic exports (statistical month) Total domestic and foreign 26 ..0 24 t.O 25 3.0 27 i.4 25 4.9 26 9.9 366.1 325.7 345.3 370.0 18.4 17.8 18.8 21.6 22.4 24.7 92.9 74.4 68.0 72.8 65.0 48.3 142.5 144.0 163.4 221.5 246.8 282.1 346.4 352.5 383.0 12.3 13.4 12.8 12.6 30.8 32.8 32.4 29.9 28.7 30.0 36.2 27.8 2.0 1.9 2.3 1.9 3.9 3.5 3.9 3.4 21.8 23.5 28.3 21.4 32.3 34.3 33.9 31.3 11.0 13.2 15.0 14 2 27.5 32.3 33.2 320 333 35.3 35.8 34.3 33.6 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.9 3.4 4.4 4.2 3.9 44 4.9 5.6 5.6 49 21.3 24.8 25.7 25.1 258 27.2 27 2 25.8 25.6 28.7 33.7 34.7 33.5 34.8 36.8 37.5 35.9 35.1 -27.3 -31.8 -57.6 -22.3 -27.5 524 -101.7 341.2 361.6 -126.5 387.1 -139.3 5 5 1986: 17.5 19.6 18.4 18.5 Sept Oct Nov Dec 1987: Jan Feb Mar May June July Aug Sept 1 16.8 19.4 21.8 20.5 208 21.1 21 0 20.2 21 0 16.4 18.7 21.1 20.1 204 20.5 201 20.0 21 0 17.5 19.3 18.6 18.4 145 14.5 13.9 13.7 14.8 Department of Defense Military Assistance Program grant-aid shipments are excluded through 1984 and for revised statistical month data for 1985-86; they are included for statistical month data for 1985-86 and for 1987. 2 Adjusted to include undocumented exports to Canada. 3 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. For exports data beginning 1987, these include undocumented exports to Canada. 4 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. -14.7 -14.7 -15.4 -12.7 -13.3 -13.2 — 140 -11.3 30.1 31.4 37.8 29.1 -10.7 -12.9 -11.4 -11.5 -12.5 -14.1 -14.8 — 14.1 -12.6 -11.0 -13.6 -12.1 -11.8 -12.9 -14.7 -15.8 -14.3 -12.6 -11.9 -14.4 -12.9 -13.0 -14.0 -15.7 -16.5 -15.7 -14.1 -12.3 -15.1 -13.6 13.3 -14.4 -16.3 — 17.4 -15.9 — 14.1 6 Revised statistical month exports less statistical month customs value imports. NOTE.—Data shown include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands. Statistical month and revised statistical month refer only to data for 1984-86. Data for 1987 are roughly equivalent to revised statistical month data. For further information, see Bureau of the Census release FT900, April and August 1987. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the third quarter, the merchandise trade deficit rose to $39.8 billion from $39.6 billion in the second quarter. BILLI ONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLL/kRS* 10 10 5 — -^ ^x\ ^^^___/f^' 0 ^ "'- ,./ -5 N — ^ / yv. .^, BALANCE ON CURRENT ACCOUNT \ / _ \__ ^-A 0 'H -''\ \ \ \i. ^ + -15 -5 '\ -10 MER CHANDISE TR/ BALANCE \\ \\v kDE -10 -15 \ \\\ \ \ ^\ BALANCE ON GOODS AMD SFRVirFS V -20 -20 / \ -25 5 -25 ^~ ''^\ -30 -30 ^^' l ""*™ \ — -35 ^^N*. -35 \_ '''\ ^^* ** — -40 --VL. *\\ \ I -45 I 1 1979 1 1 1 ! 1 I 1981 1980 1 I 1982 I I ! I I 1983 ! I 1984 1 1 1 1 1985 1 1 1986 1 1 1 -40 -45 1987 • SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits ( + ), debits (—)] Merchandise 12 Investment income 3 Period Exports 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1984: I n m IV 1985- I II Ill IV 1986: I II Ill IV 1987- I II Ill 1 2 3 184,473 224,269 237,085 211,198 201,820 219,900 215,935 224,361 53,614 54,590 55,691 56,005 55,064 54,040 53,367 53,464 53,878 56,928 56,534 57,021 56,992 ' 60,097 ".... 65,263 Imports -212,009 -249,749 -265,063 -247,642 -268,900 -332,422 -338,083 -368,700 -79,415 -83,684 -84,144 -85,179 -79,946 -83,986 -84,573 -89,578 -88,856 -90,579 -93,649 -95,616 95 749 r - 99,655 - 105,095 Net balance Receipts Payments -27,536 25 480 64,132 72,506 86,411 83,549 77,251 85,910 88,299 88,209 22,831 21,052 21,515 20,512 18,530 21,931 24,174 23,665 24,076 22,013 21,333 20,787 24,950 22,351 -32,960 42 120 -27,978 -36,444 67 080 -112,522 122 148 - 144,339 -25,801 -29,094 -28,453 -29,174 -24,882 -29,946 -31,206 -36,114 -34,978 -33,651 -37,115 -38,595 38 757 r - 39,558 -39,832 -52,329 54 883 -52,376 -67,419 -62,901 67 365 -15,435 -17,196 -17,978 - 16,809 -16,359 -16,670 -16,055 -13,818 -17,651 -17,426 - 15,994 -16,295 -19,450 -20,743 Excludes military. Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the 36 Net 31,172 30,386 34,082 28,666 24,875 18,491 25,398 20,844 7,396 3,856 3,537 3,703 2,171 5,261 8,119 9,847 6,425 4,587 5,339 4,492 5,500 1,608 Net military transactions 1 778 -2,237 1 183 -274 243 -1,942 -3,339 -3,662 -273 -615 -255 -798 -242 -782 -794 -1,519 -1,298 — 1,054 -815 -495 -37 111 Net travel and transportation receipts -2,935 -997 144 -992 4 227 -8,604 - 10,866 -9,903 -1,874 -2,039 -2,310 -2,381 -2,261 -2,849 -2,892 -2,862 -2,786 -2,278 -2,442 -2,397 -3,219 -3,088 Other services, net3 Balance on goods and services Remittances, pensions, and other unilateral transfers 1 Balance on current account -6,128 6,214 -991 5,138 1,873 9,466 -7,593 7,793 14,344 -7,460 6,884 9,278 -8,679 278 -8,956 9,320 36 766 -9,480 -46,246 9,908 9,741 -94,835 -12,178 -107,013 9,861 -101,093 -15,301 -116,393 11,368 - 125,694 -15,658 -141,352 2,629 -17,923 -2,362 -20,285 2,513 -25,379 -2,461 -27,840 2,436 -25,045 -3,112 -28,157 2,164 -26,486 -4,243 -30,729 2,296 -22,918 -3,296 -26,214 2,458 -25,858 -3,517 -29,375 -28,539 2,403 -24,370 -4,169 2,704 -27,944 -4,321 -32,265 2,618 -30,019 -3,021 -33,040 2,808 -29,588 -4,167 -33,755 2,784 -32,249 -4,334 -36,583 3,156 -33,839 -4,138 -37,977 2,832 -33,681 -3,103 -36,784 2,701 -38,193 -2,904 -41,097 United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $20.2 billion in the second quarter compared with a decrease of $25.7 billion in the first quarter. Liabilities to foreigners and international financial institutions reported by U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, increased $15.2 billion in the second quarter compared to a decrease of $13.6 billion in the first quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 80 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 80 60 -20 -20 -40 -40 -60 -60 1987 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] U.S. assets abroad, net Foreign assets in the 1 J.S., net [increase?/ capital inflowv (+)]2 \ increase /capit il outflow (— ) 1 Period Total U.S. official reserve assets J 2 Other U.S. Government assets U.S. private assets Total Foreign official assets Other foreign assets Statistical discrepancy Allocations of special drawing rights (SDKs) Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy U S official assets, net 1 (unadjusted, end of period) -64,331 -86,118 -110,951 -121,153 -49,777 -22,291 -31,399 -95,982 -1,133 -8,155 5,175 -4,965 1,196 -3,131 3,858 312 3,746 -59,453 -5,162 -72,802 -5,097 -100,679 -6,131 -110,058 -5,006 -43,576 -5,476 -13,685 -2,831 -24,711 -1,920 -94,374 -3,602 -19,395 17,421 -16,712 -657 -566 -799 -1,110 -2,029 -1,340 -1,388 -717 916 -17,490 19,608 -14,886 22,120 41,862 2,392 36,094 -2,953 149 -963 7,052 25,073 42,011 3,355 29,042 1,767 5,373 8,344 11,347 1,417 -1,381 -3,851 3,809 34,975 34,547 34,306 34,934 -1,745 -1,551 -6,936 -21,167 -233 -356 -121 -3,148 -782 -1,067 -435 -547 -730 -128 -6,380 -17,473 16,423 25,202 35,020 53,227 -11,060 8,606 2,426 -1,111 27,484 16,596 32,594 54,338 11,535 5,724 455 205 1,725 -1,712 -3,781 3,766 35,493 36,088 38,295 43,186 -13,770 -25,529 -24,478 -32,204 -115 16 280 132 -240 -242 -1,454 15 -13,415 -25,303 23,304 -32,351 36,322 49,042 69,591 58,431 2,576 15,568 15,551 1,003 33,746 33,475 54,040 57,428 10,488 10,241 -8,530 11,750 2,294 -2,044 -4,153 3,904 44,919 46,595 48,087 48,517 1987: I 15,533 HP.... -21,510 1,956 3,419 225 -182 13,352 -24,747 26,754 45,050 13,953 9,389 12,802 35,661 -5,504 17,557 2,652 -1,987 48,824 45,140 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1984: I n m IV 1985: I n m IV 1986: I n m IV ,-13,665 15,497 83,032 4,960 3,593 93,746 84,869 5,845 2,987 102,467 129,872 1,140 34,698 213,386 38,752 58,112 1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the IMF, 2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. 52,416 42,615 78,072 90,154 79,023 99,481 131,012 178,689 1,139 1,152 1,093 18,956 25,431 24,982 26,756 30,074 33,958 33,747 34,934 43,186 48,517 19,942 36,085 11,154 26,837 17,920 23,947 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets Consumer Installment Credit Bank Loans and Securities, and Reserves Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: p Preliminary. r Revised. 0 Corrected. ... Not available (also, not applicable). NSA not seasonally adjusted. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Price $2.50 (single copy) ($3.13 foreign). Subscription price: $27.00 per year; $33.75 for foreign mailing. 38 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1987 0—79-578