Full text of Economic Indicators : November 1983

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98th Congress, 1st Session

Economic Indicators
NOVEMBER

1983

Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the




Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1983

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
ROGER W. JEPSEN, Iowa, Chairman
LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Vice Chairman
SENATE
WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)
JAMES ABDNOR (South Dakota)
STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho)
MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia)
ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York)
LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas)
WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin)
EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)
PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana)
PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland)
AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California)
DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin)
JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York)
CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio)
MARJORIE S. HOLT (Maryland)
DAN LUNGREN (California)
OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine)

BRUCE R. BARTLETT, Executive Director

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
MARTIN FELDSTEIN, Chairman
WILLIAM A. NISKANEN, Member
WILLIAM POOLE, Member
[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators*'
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the
Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that
a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant
at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two
copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the
Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for
distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies
printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.
Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.
Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $4.25 a single copy
($5.35 foreign), or by subscription at $25.00 per year ($31.25 for foreign
mailing) from:
SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402

ii



TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
3ROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
According to revised estimates for the third quarter, gross national product rose $88.3 billion or 11.2 percent, both
at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 7.7 percent (annual rate) and the implicit price
deflator rose at a 3.3 percent annual rate.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
3,600

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
3,600

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

3,200

3,200

GNP
IN CURRENT DOLLARS

2,800

2,800

\

2,400

2,400

2,000

2,000

1,600

1,600

•\

GNP
IN 1972 DOLLARS

1,200

1,200

I
1976

1975

I I
1977

I

I I
1978

I

1979

1980

1981

1982

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

I I

1983

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

Gross
national
product

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982

,326.4
,434.2
,549.2
,718.0
,918.3
2,163.9
2,417.8
2,631.7
2,954.1
3,073.0

1981: m
IV

3,004.9
3,032.2

1982: I
II
Ill
IV

3,021.4
3,070.2
3,090.7
3,109.6

1983: I
II

3,171.5
3,272.0
3,360.3

,077.6
,185.9

Personal
consumption
expenditures

672.2
737.1
812.0

888.1
976.4
1,084.3
1,204.4
1,346.5
1,507.2
1,668.1
1,857.2
1,991.9
1,886.1
1,904.1
1,938.9
1,972.8
2,008.8
2,046.9
2,073.0
2,147.0
2,182.9

Gross
private
domestic
investment

166.4
195.0
229.8
228.7
206.1
257.9
324.1
386.6
423.0
401.9
474.9
414.5
495.8
476.2
422.9
432.5
425.3
377.4

404.1
450.1
498.2

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




Goveniment purchaises of
i°°ds and serviees

Exports arid imports of goods and
services

Final

Federal

Net
exports

Exports

Imports

Total

4.1

68.8

64.7

.7
14.2
13.4
26.8
13.8
-4.0
-1.1
13.2
23.9
26.3
17.4

77.5
109.6
146.2
154.9
170.9
182.7
218.7
281.4
338.8
368.8
347.6
367.5
371.0
358.4
364.5
346.0
321.6
326.9
327.1
341.1

76.7
95.4
132.8
128.1
157.1
186.7
219.8
268.1
314.8
342.5
330.2
344.7
341.7
328.5
331.2
345.0
316.1
309.9
335.6
361.3

22.8
29.2
29.9
33.3
.9
5.6
17.0
-8.5
-20.2

Total

234.9
253.1
270.4
304.1
339.9
362.1
393.8
431.9
474.4
537.8
595.7
649.2
600.3
622.8
629.8
631.6
655.7
679.7
677.4
683.4
699.4

96.2
101.7
102.0
111.0
122.7
129.2
143.4
153.6
168.3
197.0
229.2
258.7
232.4
248.5
249.7
244.1
261.7
279.2
273.5
273.7
278.9

National
defense

70.2
73.1

72.8
77.0
83.0
86.0
92.8
100.3
111.8
131.2
154.0
179.4
154.9
166.7
168.1
175.2
183.6
190.8
194.4
199.4
201.9

Nondefense
26.0

28.5
29.1
33.9
39.7
43.2
50.6
53.3
56.5
65.9
75.2
79.3
77.5
81.8
81.7
68.9
78.1
88.5
79.1
74.3
77.0

State and
local

138.7
151.4
168.5

193.1
217.2
232.9
250.4
278.3
306.0
340.8
366.5
390.5
367.9
374.3
380.0
387.5
394.0
400.5
404.0
409.7
420.6

,070.0
,175.7
,307.9
,420.1
,556.1
,706.2
1,895.3
2,137.4
2,403.5
2,641.5
2,935.6
3,097.5
2,971.4
3,017.9
3,047.1
3,081.4
3,095.6
3,165.9
3,210.9
3,286.6
3,351.7

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS
[Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982

Gross
national
product

Personal
consumption
expenditures

Ex]jorts of go ods
a nd services

G ross privat e
dome stic investinent
Residential fixed

business
inventories

8.1
10.2
17.2
11.6
-6.7
7.8
13.3
16.0
7.3
-4.4
8.5
9.4

1.6
.7
15.5
27.8
32.2
25.4
22.0
24.0
37.2
50.3
43.0
28.9

Total

National
defense

Nondefense

31.0
31.8
35.0
34.7
34.8
36.4
36.8
37.8

1,114.3
1,175.7
1,237.1
1,234.7
1,238.4
1,290.4
1,356.4
1,422.6
1,472.2
1,479.4
1,505.3
1,494.8

74.4
75.7

37.4
38.7

175.0
175.1

1,509.7
1,500.9

114.5
110.3
116.9
124.4

75.5
77.8
80.4
81.4

39.1
32.5
36.5
43.0

174.9
175.4
175.3
175.2

1,495.9
1,492.7
1,487.0
1,503.4

118.4
117.6
119.3

82.7
84.2
84.6

35.7
33.4
34.7

174.5
174.5
176.5

1,505.5
1,530.5
1,549.7

108.5
103.5
110.1
112.9
126.7
146.2
159.1
159.7
147.3

28.5
27.6
29.7

39.8
39.9

159.0
158.7

119.1
118.8

286.8
289.6

111.8
114.5

-10.2
-3.4
— 1.3
-22.7

35.2
33.4
24.0
23.0

151.8
154.5
146.4
136.5

116.6
121.1
122.4
113.5

289.4
285.8
292.2
299.7

-15.4
-5.4
3.9

20.5
12.3
10.4

137.3
136.2
140.6

116.8
123.9
130.2

292.9
292.1
295.8

1981: HI
IV

,525.8
,506.9

962.9
955.7

177.0
176.3

43.1
39.4

16.1
6.0

1982:

,485.8
,489.3
,485.7
,480.7

961.4
968.8
971.0
979.6

173.6
167.1
163.3
160.5

36.3
37.8
36.5
40.6

1,490.1
1,525.1
1,553.6

986.7
1,010.6
1,018.0

159.9
163.0
169.3

45.5
52.6
56.2

71.0
77.5
97.3

State
and local

146.4
151.4
157.4
163.6
167.8
168.4
168.8
174.3
176.2
177.9
176.1
175.2

73.1
68.3
66.9
66.4
64.9
65.4
65.7
67.4
70.0
73.6
78.8

125.6
140.3
158.3
169.9
165.8
174.4
166.1

n
mr

Total

Imports

103.7
101.7
95.9
96.6
97.4
96.8
100.4
100.3
102.1
106.4
110.4
116.6

53.7
63.8
62.3
48.2
42.2
51.2
60.7
62.4
59.1
47.1
44.7
37.8

1983: I

Exports

250.1
253.1
253.3
260.3
265.2
265.2
269.2
274.6
278.3
284.3
286.5
291.8

112.2
121.0
138.1
135.7
119.3

IV

Net
exports

69.3
76.7
81.8
80.7
71.4
84.7
90.9
102J
109.0
108.8
116.7
118.4

696.8
737.1
767.9
762.8
779.4
823.1
864.3
903.2
927.6
931.8
956.8
970.2

I

Final

Federal

Change
dential
fixed

1,122.4
1,185.9
1,254.3
1,246.3
1,231.6
1,298.2
1,369.7
1,438.6
1,479.4
1,475.0
1,513.8
1,485.4

n
m

Govern ment purch ases of
gOO( Is and services

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
[1972=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]

Period

G
national
product

Personal consumption
expen ditures
Total

Durable
goods

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982

96.01
100.00
105.75
115.08
125.79
132.34
140.05
150.42
163.42
178.42
195.14
206.88

96.5
100.0
105.7
116.4
125.3
131.7
139.3
149.1
162.5
179.0
194.1
205.3

99.0
100.0
101.7
108.2
117.3
123.9
129.2
136.4

1981: HI
IV

196.94
201.22

1982:

1971
1972
1973

I

n
m
IV

1983: I

n

Ill r

Services

Exports ant 1 imports of
goods anc services

Gove rnment pure lases of goo ds and
sersnces
Federal

Nonresidential
fixed

Residential fixed

96.2
100.0
103.8
115.4
132.2
138.6

94.8
100.0
109.1
120.3

Exports

Imports

Total

135.7
144.6
153.8
162.5
180.8
204.5
210.0

289.4
287.7

207.9
217.0

208.3
220.0

207.0
211.2

210.2
213.8

236.1
236.0
236.3
235.6

281.8
273.6
281.8
278.5

218.0
221.3
223.8
224.4

222.7
225.1
228.3
234.3

209.1
212.3
213.9
205.7

217.3
220.9
224.7
228.5

238.0
240.2
242.5

265.4
270.7
277.4

230.9
232.7
233.7

234.9
236.7
238.6

221.7
222.6
221.6

231.6
234.8
238.3

146.3
157.2
170.8
186.2
201.9
209.7

179.6
185.6
205.5
214.1
246.1
289.4
293.4
278.9

197.9
202.5

203.7
208.5

235.7
239.2

231.2
233.8

206.8
207.6
210.2
211.2

206.3
209.4
213.4
217.2

208.1
211.1
209.6
209.9

240.8
240.9
240.9
238.4

210.6
213.4
215.5

219.8
223.1
225.2

207.7
206.3
206.5

244.9
243.9
249.0

195.9
199.2

169.3
171.2

203.8
205.5

203.36
206.15
208.03
210.00

201.7
203.6
206.9
209.0

172.9
174.2
176.1
176.1

212.83
214.55
216.29

210.1
212.5
214.4

177.3
177.5
179.2

State
and local

126.0
133.5
142.8
153.1
164.8
185.2
207.7
222.0

131.0
140.7
158.0
178.3
200.5
218.5
233.5
240.2

145.0
156.2
167.3
174.8

Nondefense

106.6
115.1
124.9
132.4
141.9
152.7
166.0
187.5
209.3
227.7

134.8
149.6
155.3
161.9
172.6
192.5
212.9
230.8
236.0

92.7
100.0
106.3
114.9

95.6
100.0
104.7
113.0
121.6
129.6
139.3
150.0
162.3
178.8
195.8
211.6

National
defense

94.7
100.0
107.0
118.0
129.4
138.3
148.4
159.7
173.7
191.5
208.1
222.9

93.3
100.0
116.7
164.6

96.6
100.0
108.5
123.4
132.5
137.2
143.6
153.4
169.9
188.1
202.5
209.0

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




Nondurable
goods

Gross private
domestic investment

97.0
100.0
112.7

100.0

100.0
105.6
114.2
128.2

CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES
[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Personal eonsumption e xpenditures

Grc ss national prc>duet

Period

Constant
(1972)
dollars

Current
dollars

1971.....
1972

8.6
10.1
11.8

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
.
1982
1981: m
IV
1982: I

8.1
8.0

10.9
11.7
12.8
11.7
8.8

12.2
4.0

13.3
3.7

-1.4

n
m

6.6
2.7
2.5

IV

1983: I

8.2

n
nr

13.3
11.2

Implicit
price
deflator

Chain price
index

3.4
5.7

5.0
4.2

5.8
-.6

5.8
8.8
9.3
5.2
5.8
7.4
8.6
9.2
9.4
6.0
9.4
9.0
4.3
5.6
3.7
3.8

-1.2
5.4
5.5
5.0
2.8
-.3
2.6

-1.9
3.6

-4.9
-5.5
1.0

-1.0
-1.3
2.6
9.7
7.7

5.5
3.3
3.3

Fixedweighted
price index
(1972
weights)

3.7

8.1
9.6
10.2
9.4
9.9
11.0
11.1

4.8

4.9
4.1
6.0
9.1

Implicit
price
deflator

Constant
(1972)
dollars

Current
dollars

5.8
4.2
-.7
2.2
5.6
5.0
4.5
2.7
.5
2.7
1.4

9.2
5.7
6.1
7.6
8.9
8.9
9.4
6.5
9.0
8.2

4.0
6.0
9.4
9.1
5.8
6.3
7.8
9.5
9.8
9.5
6.4
8.9
8.4

5.6
5.2
5.9
5.0

5.3
4.7
5.9
4.7

7.5
7.2
7.5
7.8

3.6
4.3
4.3

3.4
4.3
4.4

5.2

2.9

15.1

10.0

6.9

3.0

NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter.

11.8
11.9
10.7
11.3
7.3

11.4

3.5

-3.0

3.9

2.4
3.1
.9
3.6

Chain price
index

Fixedweighted
price index
(1972
weights)
4.2
3.5

4.3
3.6

4.3
3.7
5.7
10.1

6.1

6.1

10.4

10.4

7.6
5.1
5.8
7.0
9.0

7.7
5.3
6.0
7.3
9.3

7.8
5.3
6.2
7.4
9.7

10.2

10.7

11.1

8.4
5.8
7.7
7.0
5.0
4.0
6.5
4.1

9.0
5.9
7.8
7.0
5.2
3.9
6.4
5.1

9.2
5.7
7.5
6.8
4.8
3.5
6.7
5.1

2.2
4.6
3.8

2.3
4.7
3.8

1.6
4.9
4.0

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND
PROFITS
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
1
Cunrent-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dolla rs)

Gross <] omestic
product of ilonfmancial
corporate business
(billions c f dollars)
Period
Current
dollars

1971

1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1981: HI
IV
1982: I

n
in

IV

1983: I

n

IIP
1

1972
dollars

Total
cost and
profit 2

609.9
678.0
759.4

626.8
678.0

0.973
1.000

731.9

818.9

708.2
694.2
745.5
795.8
846.3

1.038
1.156
1.282
1.343
1.418
1.508
1.617
1.793
1.960

Capital
consumption
allowances
with
capital
consumption
adjustment
0.091

859.5
887.5
857.7

2.072

1,778.6
1,778.9

898.6
878.9

2.024

1,764.9
1,780.2
1,786.8
1,775.0

864.3
860.5
859.5
846.4

2.042
2.069
2.079
2.097

.092
.093
.112
.137
.141
.145
.155
.171
.198
.217
.245
.217
.229
.236
.242
.247
.254

1,817.6
1,892.4
1,957.5

856.0
885.8
909.8

2.123
2.136
2.152

.252
.245
.241

890.0
1,001.3
1,128.4
1,276.2
1,416.8
1,540.7
1,739.9
1,776.7

876.1

1.979

Indirect
business
taxes 3

Total

0.641
.659
.692
.786
.837
.878
.928
.998
.094
.218
.302
.397

.199
.204

.306
.342

.204
.207
.209
.215

.374
1.394
1.403
1.419

.042
.044
.040
.040
.044
.050
.065
.074
.076
.081
.080
.080
.079
.072
.073

.218
.223
.221

1.428
1.416
1.411

.070
.066
.065

Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1972 dol-

This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with
the decimal point shifted two places to the ieft.




Net
interest

0.113
.113
.114
.127
.140
.141
.141
.144
.149
.172
.199
.209

lars.
2

Compensation of
employ-

Corporate profits with inventory
valuation £md capital ccmsumption
adjustments

3
4

0.029
.028
.031

0.099
.107
.107
.090
.124
.144
.163
.168
.154
.140
.169
.145

Profits
tax
liability

0.047
.049

Profits
after
tax 4

0.052

.148
.147
.148
.135

.055
.059
.059
.071
.075
.079
.079
.078
.074
.048
.075
.068 '
.053
.051
.049
.040

.058
.053
.030
.065
.073
.088
.089
.075
.062
.095
.097
.102
.101
.095
.096
.099
.095

.156
.187
.214

.049
.062
.070

.108
.125
.143

.177
.169

Output
per hour
of all
employees (1972
dollars)

Compensation per
hour of
all
employees
(dollars)

7.450
7.664
7.849
7.555
7.774
8.002

4.778
5.052
5.429
5.937
6.507
7.024
7.558

8.144
8.216
8.201
8.126

8.198

8.332
8.373

8.969
9.894
10.850
11.700

8.392
8.323

10.957
11.171

8.342
8.330
8.409

8.421

11.463
11.614
11.795
11.952

8.492
8.627
8.738

12.126
12.213
12.331

Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies.
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor
(Bureau of Labor Statistics).

NATIONAL INCOME
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

National
income

Period

Compensation of
p oyee

Proprietors' income with
inventory vjiluation and
capital coiasumption
adjust ments

Farm

Corporate p rofits with inv«jntory valuatio n and capital <jonsumption
adjustments

Rental
income of
persons
with
capital
consumption
adjustment

Nonfarm

Profits with inventory •<valuation
adjustme nt and without capital
consiunption adjust ment
Inventory
valuation
adjustment

Profits

Total

1974 ...
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982

871.5
963.6
1,086.2
1,160.7
1,239.4
1,379.2
1,550.5
1,760.3
1,966.7
2,116.6
2,373.0
2,450.4

652.2
718.0
801.3
877.5
931.4
1,036.3
1,152.1
1,301.1
1,458.1
1,599.6
1,769.2
1,865.7

18.7
32.8
26.5
24.6
19.1
19.1
26.3
31.9
21.8
30.5
21.5

54.4
58.1
61.0
62.2
65.4
75.0
84.8
92.2
100.2
95.6
89.7
87.4

21.0
22.6
23.5
23.0
23.5
24.8
26.6
27.9
31.5
41.4
49.9

94.9
110.5
138.1
167.3
192.4
194.8
175.4
192.3
164.8

105.6
96.7
120.6
151.6
178.5
205.1
209.6
191.7
203.3
165.9

136.7
132.1
166.3
194.7
229.1
252.7
234.6
227.0
174.2

1981: lH
IV

2,423.4
2,435.6

1,791.7
1,815.6

35.0
31.3

88.5
85.8

42.7
45.6

197.6
192.0

208.3
201.5

1982:

2,419.7
2,448.9
2,458.9
2,474.0

1,834.2
1,859.9
1,879.5
1,889.0

27.4
16.8
15.8
26.0

83.7
88.1
87.8
90.2

47.4
49.0
50.9
52.3

162.0
166.8
168.5
161.9

98.4
106.2
lll.l

54.1
54.8
53.9

181.8
218.2
246.2

1971
1972
1973

I

n

ffl
IV

1983: I

2,528.5
2,612.8
2,686.6

np
m

1

r

1,923.7
1,968.7
2,01 1.9

15.0

22.2
21.0
!7.8

r

r

Capital
eonsump

Total

83.2
96.6
108.3

20.2

Net
interest

adjustment

-43.1
-42.9
-23.6
-8.4

-1.8
-10.1
-13.5
-11.3
-12.7
-14.8
-16.3
-11.0
-1.1

46.5
51.2
60.2
76.1
84.5
87.2
102.5
121.7
153.8
192.6
249.9
261.1

227.7
217,2

-19.4
-15.7

-10.7
-9.5

268.0
265.3

167.7
170.3
168.3
157.2

173.2
178.8
177.3
167.5

-5.5
-8.5
-9.0
-10.3

-5.6
-3.5

265.0
268.3
256.4
254.7

168.0
192.7
208.5

169.7
203.3
227.2

86.6
100.6
125.6

82.0
94.0

1.3
2.7
2.7

-4.6

6.6
-20.0
-40.0
-11.6
-14.7
-16.2
-24.0

-1.7
-10.6
-18.6

r

.1
4.7

13,9
25.6
37.6

r

r

248.3
243.8
245.7

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.)

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
[Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

No adurable goods

Durable3 goods
Total
personal
consumption
expenditures

Period

Total
durable
goods

Motor
vehicles
and
parts

Furniture and
household
equipment

Other

Total
nondurable
goods

Food

Clothing
and
shoes

57.1
50.4
55.8
72.6
84.8
95.7
96.6
90.7
101.6
109.9

37.2
41.7
47.1
50.6
53.5
59.1
65.7
72.8
81.8
86.3
93.3
93.5

14.6
16.9
19.2
20.5
22.9
25.2
27.7
31.7
35.1
37.7
41.2
41.1

278.8
300.6
333.4
373.4
407.3
441.7
478.8
528.2
600.0
668.8
733.9
761.0

144.2
154.9
172.1
193.7
213.6
230.6
249.8
275.9
311.6
345.1
375.9
396.9

69.6
75.3
82.6
92.4
99.1
104.6
115.3
119.0

50.6
55.4
61.4
64.8

Gasoline
and oil

Services
Other

Domestics

Imports

36.6
40.4
44.0
48.1
51.2
66.6
84.8
94.6
91.5

60.1
64.9
71.2
78.2
83.7
91.9
98.2
108.8
122.8
134.3
148.1
153.5

325.3
355.2
393.2
437.0
485.7
547.4
618.0
693.7
784.5
887.1
986.4

8.7
9.3
9.6
7.4
7.0
8.5
9.0
9.2
8.2
6.6
6.2
5.8

1.6
1.6
1.8
1.4
1.6
1.5
2.1
2.0
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.2

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982

888.1
976.4
1,084.3
1,204.4
1,346.5
1,507.2
1,668.1
1,857.2
1,991.9

97.2
111.1
123.3
121.5
132.2
156.8
178.2
200.2
213.4
214.7
236.1
244.5

1981: DI
IV

1,886.1
1,904.1

243.5
230.8

107.7
96.5

93.8
93.4

42.0
40.9

741.1
747.7

378.9
383.2

116.8
117.2

95.1
95.6

150.2
151.7

901.5
925.6

6.8
5.1

2.2
2.2

1,938.9
1,972.8
2,008.8
2,046.9

239.4
242.9
243.4
252.1

106.4
107.6
109.4
116.1

91.7
93.9
93.5
94.9

41.3
41.4
40.5
41.0

749.7
754.7
766.6
773.0

388.1
394.7
400.4
404.5

118.4
119.0
119.2
119.6

94.0
89.6
91.3
91.1

149.2
151.5
155.6
157.9

949.7
975.2
998.9
1,021.8

5.8
5.7
5.6
6.0

2.2
2.0
2.2
2.5

2,073.0
2,147.0
2,182.9

258.5
277.7
284.5

118.4
133.9
137.3

97.3
100.8
103.0

42.9
43.1
44.2

777.1
799.6
814.8

411.7
419.6
426.4

120.0
126.4
125.2

87.3
90.3
93.1

158.1
163.3
170.1

1,037.4
1,069.7
1,083.6

6.1
6.9
7.0

2.3
2.3
2.3

672.2
737.1
812.0

1971
1972..

1982: I

n
m

....

IV

1983: I

n...
m r.

45.4
52.4

Retail sal es of new
passeng er cars
(millions of units)

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




23.9
25.4
28.6

296.2

SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income increased $32.8 billion (annual rate) in October following a rise of $29.5 billion in September. The
increases for September and October were affected by three special factors—the telephone strike, special
payments to Postal Service employees, and hurricane damage. Without these special factors, personal income
would have increased by about $28 billion in October and $27 billion in September.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
3,200
2,800

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
3,200
2,800

WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS

120
1982
• SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1983

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

Total
personal
income

W arra an A
salary

Proprietors ' income 3
Other labor
Farm

ments 1

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982

1,065.2
1,168.6
1,265.0
1,391.2
1,540.4
1,732.7
1,951.2
2,165.3
2,435.0
2,578.6

702.7
765.7
806.4
889.9
983.2
1,106.3
1,237.6
1,356.7
1,493.2
1,568.1

1982: Oct
Nov
Dec

2,617.8
2,633.1
2,645.0

1,583.1
1,583.1
1,591.8

1983: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July r.
Aug r
Sept r
Oet*

2,652.6
2,650.5
2,670.1
2,689.0
2,719.3
2,732.6
2,747.1
2,756.6
2,786.1
2,818.9

1,608.9
1,606.3
1,616.8
1,632.1
1,652.2
1,660.9
1,673.5
1,680.5
1,692.0
1,712.0

48.8
55.8
64.5
75.9
89.4
102.5
114.9
128.0
143.5
156.6
159.7
160.4
161.2
162.6
164.2
166.0
168.1
170.1
172.2
174.3
176.3
178.4
180.6

Nonfarm

Personal
dividend
income

Personal
interest
income

26.5
24.6
19.1
19.1
26.3
31.9
21.8
30.5
21.5

61.0
62.2
65.4
75.0
84.8
92.2
100.2
95.6
89.7
87.4

22.6
23.5
23.0
23.5
24.8
26.6
27.9
31.5
41.4
49.9

26.5
29.1
29.9
36.5
39.6
45.3
50.8
56.8
62.8
66.4

93.9
112.4
123.2
132.5
152.8
179.4
218.7
266.0
341.3
366.2

23.8
28.1
26.1

89.1
89.0
92.5

52.8
52.9
51.0

67.4
68.0
68.3

361.7
363.3
364.3

22.9
21.3
22.3
22.1
21.4
19.4
16.6
16.0
20.6
25.9

96.7
97.8
100.8
103.1
106.6
109.0
109.9
110.9
112.6
113.9

53.8
54.1
54.3
54.6
54.8
55.0
55.3
50.8
55.8
56.0

68.7
68.9
68.9
69.0
69.4
69.5
70.2
70.9
71.6
72.3

360.0
356.0
355.7
355.0
356.9
359.4
363.9
369.2
374.0
377.5

32.8

1
The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of
employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of
wage accruals over wage disbursements.
2 Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workmen's
compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items.
3
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.




Eental
income of
persons 4

Transfer
pay-

ments 5

119.5
141.2
178.3
194.3
207.9
223.8
250.3
297.6
337.2
374.5
392.9
401.0
403.0
395.4
398.1
402.0
402.7
406.7
406.7
403.5
402.2
402.2
403.1

4

Less:
Personal
contributions
for social
insurance

Nonfarm
personal
income 6

42.6
47.9
50.4
55.5
61.1
69.8
81.1
88.7
104.6
112.0

1,023.7
1,131.8
1,229.1
1,359.3
1,506.5
1,689.7
1,899.3
2,119.5
2,377.0
2,527.6

112.8
112.7
113.1

2,564.5
2,575.5
2,589.4

116.6
116.2
116.8
117.6
118.8
119.5
120.1
120.3
121.1
122.3

2,600.2
2,599.7
2,618.4
2,637.5
2,668.5
2,683.8
2,700.9
2,710.8
2,735.5
2,763.0

With capital consumption adjustment.
Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments.
Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income,
and agricultural net interest.
5
6

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME
Real per capita disposable income rose again in the third quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
2,600
2,400
2,200

2,600 r:

2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400

1,000

-

1,200

-

1,000

800

800

DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
11,000 |
10,000

DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
11,000
10,000

pER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME

9,000

9,000

4,000

3,000

3,000
1975

1983

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Period

income

Less:
Personal
tax and
nontax
payments

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Equals:
personal
income

Less:
Personal
outlays 1

Equals:
Personal
saving

Per c apita
disposable personal
inec>me

Current
dollars

1972
dollars

Billions of dol ars
1971
1972

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982

Per capitai personal
consulnption
expen< litures
Current
dollars

1972
dollars

Do liars

3,620
3,860
4,315
4,667
5,075
5,477
5,965
6,621
7,331
8,032
8,906
9,377

868.4
951.4
1,065.2
1,168.6
1,265.0
1,391.2
1,540.4
1,732.7
1,951.2
2,165.3
2,435.0
2,578.6

116.7
141.0
150.7
170.2
168.9
196.8
226.4
258.7
301.0
336.5
387.4
402.1

751.8
810.3
914.5
998.3
1,096.1
1,194.4
1,314.0
1,474.0
1,650.2
1,828.9
2,047.6
2,176.5

757.7
835.5
913.2
1,001.8
1,111.9
1,236.0
1,384.6
1,553.5
1,718.7
1,912.4
2,051.1

2,490.9
2,516.6
2,528.1
2,563.2
2,591.3
2,632.0

398.9
396.1
400.2
404.2
399.8
404.1

2,092.0
2,120.5
2,127.9
2,159.0
2,191.5
2,227.8

1,942.3
1,961.5
1,997.0
2,031.9
2,068.4
2,107.0

149.7
159.0
130.8
127.1
123.0
120.8

9,088
9,188
9,199
9,315
9,430
9,562

2,657.7
2,713.6
2,763.2

401.8
412.6
400.1

2,255.9
2,301.0
2,363.1

2,134.2
2,209.5
2,247.6

121.7
91.5
115.5

9,661
9,834
10,075

691.1

60.7
52.6
79.0
85.1
94.3
82.5
78.0
89.4
96.7
110.2
135.3
125.4

3,752
3,860
4,080
4,009
4,051
4,158
4,280
4,441
4,512
4,487
4,587
4,567

Percent
change in
real per
capita
disposable
personal
income

Saving as
percent of
disposable
personal
income

Popula(thousands) 2

Per cent

3,237
3,511
3,831
4,152
4,521
4,972
5,468
6,048
6,695
7,326
8,078
8,581

3,623
3,566
3,609
3,774
3,924
4,057
4,121
4,092
4,162
4,180

2.4
2.9
5.7
-1.7
1.0
2.6
2.9
3.8
1.6
-.6
2.2
-.4

4,640
4,612
4,562
4,574
4,558
4,576

8,194
8,250
8,382
8,511
8,644
8,785

4,183
4,141
4,156
4,180
4,178
4,204

7.8
-2.4
-4.3
1.1
-1.4
1.6

6.1
5.9
5.6
5.4

230,187
230,797
231,304
231,790
232,387
232,990

4,599
4,629
4,699

8,878
9,176
9,306

4,226
4,319
4,340

2.0
2.6
6.2

5.4
4.0
4.9

233,501
233,984
234,561

3,355
3,511

8.1

6.5
8.6
8.5
8.6
6.9
5.9
6.1
5.9
6.0
6.6
5.8

207,692
209,924

211,939
213,898
215,981
218,086
220,289
222,629
225,106
227,694
229,916
232,118

Seas<mally adju sted annual rates

1981: m
IV
1982: I

n
m
IV

1983: I

nr
m ....

1
Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net).
2
Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages
for the period.




7.2
7.5

Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census)

FARM INCOME
In the third quarter, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income fell $0,9 billion (annual rate) and net
farm income fell $1.1 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
200

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

200

160

160

120

120

100

100

80

80

60

60

NET FARM INCOME-

40

40

I'
I

\J

20

I
20

I I

J_L
1975

1976

1977

10

1979

1978

1980

1981

1982

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

1983

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

In come of farm operators from farmi ng
Net fanri income

(jross farm incomej
Period

Gash marketing rece pts
Total 1
Total

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982

Livestock and
products

Crops

.8
4.9
-5.3
7.6
-1.9

21.5
30.1
22.1

8.7
11.0
7.6

72.7
69.0
75.6
75.0

3.1
10.1
9.5
7.9

135.1
136.5
137.8
138.6

26.1
28.6
34.4
31.1

9.9
10.7
12.5
11.0

70.7
71.0
70.2
68.9

76.9
71.0
72.1
77.4

2.0
-1.7
-3.5
-4.2

141.0
141.5
140.3
137.6

27.4
17.0
15.6
28.2

9.7
5.9
5.3
9.6

71.5
70.8
70.1

72.5
70.5
75.6

3.5
-6.3
-12.3

136.6
135.1
135.3

24.4
21.6
20.5

8.3
7.3
6.8

45.8
49.0

Ill
IV

161.2
165.1
172.2
169.7

141.9
138.5
145.7
143.0

69.2
69.5
70.1
68.0

1982: I
II
HI
IV

168.4
158.5
155.9
165.8

147.6
142.0
142.3
146.3

1983:

161.0
156.7
155.8

144.0
141.3
145.7

I
II
111 P

1

•

Cash marketing receipts and inventor}' changes plus Government payments, other farm cash
income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms.
2
Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average
prices during the year.




1967 dollars 3

15.9
11.8
10.9
14.2
14.8

43.1
46.3
47.6
59.2
68.6
67.8
69.2
70.2

I
II

Current
dollars

25.6
20.1
19.8
27.7
32.3

88.9
95.4
96.2
112.9
131.8
140.5
142.3
144.6

1981:

Production
expenses

75.0
82.7
88.9
99.5
118.1
128.6
137.0
140.1

100.6
102.9
108.7
127.2
150.4
150.1
167.1
162.2

,

Value of
inventory
changes 2

48.6
53.7
63.2
72.7
73.1
74.4

3

3.4
-1.5
1.1

Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index (Department of Labor).

Source: Department of Agriculture, except as noted.

CORPORATE PROFITS
In the third quarter, according to preliminary estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $23.9 billion (annual rate)
from their second quarter level and after-tax profits rose $14.7 billion.
BILLIONS OP DOLLARS
3201
:

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1320

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

280

280
PROFITS BEFORE TAX

240

240

200

200
PROFITS AFTER TAX

160

160

120

120
TAX LIABILITY

80

80

40

40

UNDISTRIBUTED PROFITS

I
1975

1976

I I
1977

i i i

I

1978

I

I

I

1979

I
1980

I

I I

I
1982

1981

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

I I

1983

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Pr<jfits (before tax) with inventory valuation

adjustmen t

1

Profits after tas.

Doinestic indust ries

Period

Nonfinancial

Total2

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978....
1979
1980
1981
1982
1981: 1H
IV
1982: I....

n
m
IV

1983: I

n
m*....

1
See
8

Total

Financial

74.9
85.3
92.0
80.4
107.6
137.4
163.4
185.4
179.0
161.9
179.7
144.1
186.5
174.7
147.0
148.5
147.6
133.1

11.8
17.1
23.1
31.0
30.3
26.9
20.3
20.9
18.8
18.1
15.5
20.4
22.2
25.5

70.0
76.0
65.4
95.8
120.3
140.3
154.4
148.6
134.9
159.4
123.2
167.7
156.5
131.5
128.1
125.4
107.6

168.0
192.7
208.5

147.8
172.2
187.8

29.8
33.8
32.5

118.0
138.4
155.3

60.8

p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.

8



Tax
liability

Whnlo

Total8

82.0
94.0
105.6
96.7
120.6
151.6
178.5
205.1
209.6
191.7
203.3
165.9
208.3
201.5
167.7
170.3
168.3
157.2

14.1
15.3
15.9
15.0

Profits
before tax

Manufacturing

Total

Dividends

Undistributed
profits

sale and
retail
trade

34.1
40.7
45.5
39.0
52.6
69.2
78.3
86.9
85.6
72.9
86.7
59.0
93.3
76.9
60.9
61.4
65.5
48.3

11.7
13.4
13.9
12.5
21.3
22.4
26.6
26.9
27.1
23.6
32.8
27.6
33.3
37.8
30.2
27.4
25.2
27.5

86.6
100.6
125.6
136.7
132.1
166.3
194.7
229.1
252.7
234.6
227.0
174.2
227.7
217.2
173.2
178.8
177.3
167.5

37.5
41.6
49.0
51.6
50.6
63.8
72.7
83.2
87.6
84.8
82.8
59.2
83.7
75.6
60.3
61.4
60.8
54.0

49.0
58.9
76.6
85.1
81.5
102.5
122.0
145.9
165.1
149.8
144.1
115.1
144.0
141.7
112.9
117.4
116.5
113.5

22.9
24.4
27.0
29.9
30.8
37.4
40.8
47.0
52.7
58.6
64.7
68.7
66.4
67.3
67.7
67.8
68.8
70.4

26.1
34.5
49.6
55.2
50.7
65.1
81.2
98.9
112.4
91.2
79.5
46.4
77.6
74.4
45.2
49.5
47.7
43.1

53.7
68.1

27.8
33.9

169.7
203.3
227.2

61.5
76.0
85.2

108.2
127.2
141.9

71.4
72.0
73.7

36.7
55.2
68.2

3

Includes industries not shown separately.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Inventory
valuation
adjustment

-4.6
-6.6
-20.0
-40.0
-11.6
-14.7
-16.2
-24.0
-43.1
-42.9
-23.6
-8.4
-19.4
-15.7
-5.5
-8.5
-9.0
-10.3
-1.7
-10.6
-18.6

r

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
According to revised estimates for the third quarter, business fixed investment rose $13.3 billion (annual rate) and
residential investment outlays rose $11.5 billion. There was an $8.7 billion increase in inventories following a
decrease of $14.5 billion in the second quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
600

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
600

500

500

400
NONRESIDENTIAL
FIXED INVESTMENT

300

RESIDENTIAL
FIXED INVESTMENT

100
CHANGE IN BUSINESS
INVENTORIES

-100

-100
1983

1975

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1971
1972

166.4
195.0

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982

229.8
228.7

1981:

206.1

360.6
367.6

137.0
145.5

223.6

422.9
432.5
425.3
377.4

361.3

144.7
144.2
140.0
138.6

216.5

352.7
342.3
337.0

474.9

IV

1983: I

nr
m ..

404.1
450.1
498.2

332.1
336.3
349.6

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




100.7
102.3
115.3
140.8
170.2
191.9
197.9
218.8

495.8
476.2

401.9

m

67.4
76.9
92.3

414.5

386.6
423.0

.

40.5
44.1
51.0
55.9

Producers'
durable
equipment

205.2
248.9
290.2
308.8
352.2
348.3

324.1

1982: I
II

107.9
121.0
143.3
156.6
157.7
174.1

Structures

55.4
58.8
64.4
78.7
98.3
110.9
133.4
141.9

257.9

HI
IV

Total

132.9
127.4
130.1

206.4

222.1
208.5
202.2

198.4
199.3
208.8

219.6

Change iii business
inven tories

Residential fix ed investment

Nonresic ential fixed imvestment
private
domestic
investment

Total

Nonfarm
structures

Farm
structures

Producers'
durable
equipment

Total

Nonfarm

1.0
1.1
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.3
1.5

1.3
1.5
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.2

7.7
10.2
18.5
14.1
-6.9
11.8
23.0
26.5
14.3
-9.8
18.5
-24.5

16.0
-10.5
13.9
21.9
25.4
8.6
-4.5
10.9
-23.1

97.0
89.5

1.5
1.6

3.2
3.3

33.6
14.3

24.1
6.2

87.3
91.0
87.9
96.8

83.2
86.1
83.4
91.2

.9
1.6
1.3
2.3

3.2
3.3
3.3
3.3

-25.7
-11.2
-4.9
-56.4

-27.6
-8.8
-2.3
-53.7

111.3
128.4
139.9

106.7
123.3
134.7

1.3
1.5
1.6

3.4
3.5
3.6

-39.4
-14.5
8.7

-39.0
-10.3
18.8

50.9
63.8
68.0
57.9
55.3
72.0
95.8
111.2
118.6
102.9
104.3
90.8

54.8
52.4
68.8
92.0
107.0
114.0
98.1
99.8
86.0

101.7
94.3

48.9
61.5
65.6

0.7
.7
.7
1.3

6.4
9.6
15.2

EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT—NONFARM
BUSINESS
According to the Commerce Department July-August survey, nonfarm business spending for new plant and
equipment for the year 1983 is expected to be 3.1 percent below the 1982 level. Spending in 1982 was 1.6
percent below the 1981 level.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
500

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
500
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

400

400
TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT

300

300

200

200

100

100

80

MANUFACTUR NG

60

60

40

40

u u
I

I

I

1975

I

I

I

1976

I

1977

1978

I

I

I

1980

1979

I

I

1981

30

1982

J/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Plan t and equip ment
Period

Total

Plant

1anufacturin g

Equipment
Total

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

1982
1983 4....
1982: I
II

m
IV

1983: I
II 4

m4

IV

Durable
goods

Nondurable
goods

Total

Mining

157.71
171.45
198.08
231.24
270.46
295.63
321.49
316.43
306.57

65.23
71.12
80.19
92.63
105.75
117.57
133.35
134.58

92.48
100.33
117.89
138.60
164.68
178.06
188.14
181.86

54.92
59.95
69.22
79.72
98.68
115.81
126.79
119.68
113.97

26.33
28.47
34.04
40.43
51.07
58.91
61.84
56.44
51.49

28.59
31.47
35.18
39.29
47.61
56.90
64.95
63.23
62.49

102.79
111.50
128.87
151.52
171.77
179.81
194.70
196.75
192.60

6.10
7.44
9.24
10.21
11.38
13.51
16.86
15.45
12.71

326.95
321.87
313.76
303.18

139.07
137.52
134.43
127.32

187.89
184.34
179.33
175.86

127.47
122.76
118.26
110.23

60.39
58.28
56.61
50.51

67.08
64.48
61.65
59.72

199.49
199.11
195.51
192.95

293.03
293.46
313.04
326.73

125.40
125.60

167.62
167.86

109.86
108.79
117.44
119.80

50.74
48.48
53.00
53.73

59.12
60.31
64.44
66.07

183.17
184.67
195.61
206.93

1

Wholesale and retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and personal, business, and professional services.
2
"Other" consists of construction; social services and membership organizations; and forestry,
fisheries, and agricultural services.

10



Starts of
plant and

Nonmanu Factoring
Transportation

Public
utilities

Trade
and
services l

Communication
and
other 2
.21.80

ment
projects,
manufacturing 3
56.59
59.39
77.73

10.68
12.35
12.09
12.05
11.95
11.13

19.98
22.37
26.79
29.95
33.96
35.44
38.40
41.95
42.18

46.23
49.30
56.54
68.66
79.26
86.33
86.95
87.68

41.06

17.43
16.38
14.57
13.41

12.00
12.17
11.29
12.33

40.35
41.45
43.02
43.00

87.82
88.74
86.88
84.36

41.87

12.03
10.91
13.29
14.60

11.04
10.88
10.51
12.08

41.61
41.48
42.09
43.53

82.38
85.85

36.11

23.35

35.54
40.40
43.54

27.71

8.68
8.89
9.40

81.79

89.31
93.18

3

23.51
26.90
32.02
34.83
36.99
40.46
38.90
40.36
39.75
39.84

88.41
113.50
123.58
135.61
104.35
26.74
28.68

25.31
23.62

Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during given period.
Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late July and August 1983, corrected
for biases.
4

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE
Seasonally adjusted civilian employment

was virtually unchanged in October and unemployment

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

fell 537,000.

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

*16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted]
N ninstitu
,
Period

1977
1978

including
resident
Armed
Forces

4

1979
1980
1981
1982

160,689
163,541

166,460
169,349
171,775
173,939

Resident
Armed
Forces

1,656
1,631
1,597
1,604
1,645
1,668

Total labor
force
including
resident
Armed
Forces

including
resident
Armed
Forces

100,665

93,673

103,882
106,559
108,544
110,315
111,872

97,679
100,421
100,907
102,042
101,194

Civilian
labor force

99,009
102,251
104,962
106,940
108,670
110,204

Nonagricultural

Total

92,017
96,048
98,824
99,303
100,397
99,526

174,549
174,718
174,864
175,021
175,169
175,320
175,465
175,622
175,793
175,970
176,122
176,297
176,474

1,668
1,660
1,665
1,667
1,664
1,664
1,671
1,669
1,668
1,664
1,682
1,695
1,695

112,420
112,702
112,794
112,215
112,217
112,148
112,457
112,418
113,600
113,539
113,943
114,063
113,510

100,844
100,796
100,758
100,770
100,727
100,767
101,129
101,226
102,454
102,949
103,245
103,640
103,623

110,752
111,042
111,129
110,548
110,553
110,484
110,786
110,749
111,932
111,875
112,261
112,368
111,815

1
Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc.
2
Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population (both including resident Armed
Forces)
3
Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population.




Agricultural

3,283
3,387
3,347
3,364
3,368
3,401

Total

Part-time
for
economic
reasons l

Total

6,991
6,202
6,137
7,637
8,273

15
weeks
and
over

1,942
1,414
1,241
1,871

Labor force
particij ation
rate (pe rcent)
Total 2

Civilian 3

62.6

62.3
63.2
63.7
63.8
63.9
64.0

64.1
64.2
64.2
63.8
63.7
63.6
63.7
63.7
64.3
64.2
64.4
64.4
64.0

88,734

3,369

92,661
95,477
95,938
97,030
96,125

3,298
3,373
4,064
4,499
5,852

10,678

2,285
3,485

63.5
64.0
64.1
64.2
64.3

6,403
6,411
6,425
6,845
6,481
6,202
6,082
5,928
5,729
5,636
5,789
6,106
5,670

11,576
11,906
12,036
11,446
11,490
11,381
11,328
11,192
11,146
10,590
10,699
10,423
9,886

4,167
4,524
4,732
4,634
4,618
4,615
4,356
4,517
4,589
4,417
4,020
3,850
3,613

64.4
64.5
64.5
64.1
64.1
64.0
64.1
64.0
64.6
64.5
64.7
64.7
64.3

Seasonal!.y adjusted

Unadju sted
1982: Oct
Nov
Dec
1983: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May......
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct

Unemplc)yment

Civilian ernployment

Total

99,176
99,136
99,093
99,103
99,063
99,103
99,458
99,557
100,786
101,285
101,563
101,945
101,928

3,413
3,466
3,411
3,412
3,393
3,375
3,371
3,367
3,522
3,527
3,489
3,290
3,202

4
Data beginning 1978
hold survey, which added
_
_
Source: Department of

95,763
95,670
95,682
95,691
95,670
95,729
96,088
96,190
97,264
97,758
98,074
98,655
98,726

not strictly comparable with earlier data because of revisions in the houseabout 250,000 to labor force and to employment.
, ,
„
,T , ^ . .
Labor, Bureau of Labor statistics.

11

SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
The seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate, which includes resident Armed Forces in the labor force, fell to
8.7 percent in October from 9.1 percent in September. The unemployment rate for all civilian workers fell to 8.8
percent in October from 9.3 percent in September.
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY

PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

ADJUSTED)

10

1983

1979
UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Unempl oyment ra te (pereent of eivilian labor force hi group)

Period

Unemployment
rate, all
work-

By sex and a«e

Both
sexes
16-19
years

civilian
workers

Men
20 years
and over

Women
20 years
and
over

6.9
6.0
5.8
7.0
7.5
9.5

7.1
6.1
5.8
7.1
7.6
9.7

5.2
4.3
4.2
5.9
6.3
8.8

7.0
6.0
5.7
6.4
6.8
8.3

17.8
16.4
16.1
17.8
19.6
23.2

1982: Oct....
Nov...
Dec...

10.3
10.6
10.7

10.5
10.7
10.8

9.8
10.0
10.1

8.7
9.0
9.2

1983: Jan...
Feb ...
Mar...
Apr ...
May...
June..
July..
Aug...
Sept ..
Oct....

10.2
10.2
10.1
10.1
10.0

10.4
10.4
10.3
10.2
10.1
10.0
9.5
9.5
9.3
8.8

9.6
9.9
9.6
9.8
9.6
9.0
8.8
8.8
8.7
8.2

9.0
8.9
8.8
8.4
8.5
8.6
7.9
8.0
7.8
7.4

ers l

1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982

9.8
9.3
9.4
9.1
8.7

Black aiad other
White




Experienced
wage and
salary
workers

Married
men,
spouse
present

Women

Labor
force
time lost
(percent) 2

Fulltune
workers

Parttune
workers

8.5
8.3
9.2
10.4
11.7

6.6
5.6
5.3
6.9
7.3
9.6

9.9
9.0
8.8
8.8
9.4
10.5

7.6
6.5
6.3
7.9
8.5
11.0

7.5
7.6
7.8

11.3
12.5
13.2

10.5
10.6
10.8

10.3
11.3
11.1

12.0
12.4
12.7

7.1
7.2
7.1
7.1
7.0
6.6
6.1
6.3
6.1
5.8

13.2
13.0
13.5
13.2
12.9
12.8
11.6
11.6
12.2
11.1

10.3
10.4
10.3
10.2
9.9
9.7
9.4
9.4
9.2
8.7

10.6
10.1
10.5
10.6
11.0
12.1
10.2
10.1
10.0
9.8

11.7
12.0
11.8
11.4
11.5
10.8
10.4
10.6
10.6
10.0

Total

Black

6.2
5.2
5.1
6.3
6.7
8.6

13.1
11.9
11.3
13.1
14.2
17.3

14.0
12.8
12.3
14.3
15.6
18.9

6.6
5.6
5.5
6.9
7.3
9.3

3.6
2.8
2.8
4.2
4.3
6.5

24.1
24.2
24.5

9.3
9.6
9.7

18.4
18.5
18.8

20.1
20.2
20.8

10.1
10.5
10.7

22.7
22.2
23.5
23.4
23.0
23.6
22.8
23.0
21.8
21.6

9.1
9.2
9.0
8.9
8.9
8.6
8.2
8.2
8.1
7.7

19.0
18.0
18.5
18.8
18.6
18.9
17.9
18.1
17.2
16.6

20.8
19.7
19.9
20.8
20.6
20.6
19.5
20.0
19.0
18.1

10.1
10.1
10.1
9.9
9.8
9.4
9.0
9.1
8.8
8.5

1
Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces.
8
Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours.

12

Bys elected groui)S

By race

All
Ail

who
maintain
families

9.4

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE PROGRAMS
In October, the percentages of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for more
than 27 weeks fell, while the percentages out of work for 5-14 weeks and for 15-26 weeks rose. Both measures
of average duration of unemployment—the mean and the median—were about unchanged at 20.1 and 9.3 weeks,
respectively.
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION
70

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*
70

REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
60

50

40

-

REENTRANTS

30

•*»-..V

20

NEW ENTRANTS

10 -,
/ """«.,„.,.
JOB LEAVERS

1979

1979

1983

1981

1980

1982

1983

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Duration of imemployiment

Unemployment
(thousands)

Period

P ercent dij tribution i

Be ason for imemployment:
percent d istributio a 1

Insured
unemployment,

State
progratins

Numbe r of

regular
programs
(unadjusted) 2

Special
ployment
benefit
claims
(unadjusted) 3

Job
losers

Job
leavers

Reentrants

New
entrants

Insured
unemployment

5.9
5.4
6.5
6.9
8.7

41.7
42.9
51.7
51.6
58.7

14.1
14.3
11.7
11.2
7.9

29.9
29.4
25.2
25.4
22.3

14.3
13.3
11.4
11.9
11.1

2,359
2,434
3,350
3,047
4,057

346
388
488
460
583

2,645
2,592
3,837
3,410
4,590

17.1
17.3
18.0

9.6
10.0
10.1

62.4
61.6
60.6

6.8
6.6
6.9

19.8
21.3
21.8

11.0
10.4
10.7

4,615
4,635
4,428

659
618
546

4,391
4,635
5,074

807
897
708

19.4
19.0
19.1
19.0
20.4
22.0
21.7
19.9
20.2
20.1

11.5
9.6
10.3
11.3
12.3
11.8
9.9
8.9
9.1
9.3

59.1
60.2
60.4
59.7
60.5
58.4
58.5
57.9
57.3
55.9

7.4
7.5
8.0
7.2
7.2
7.0
7.0
7.2
8.3
9.0

23.1
22.0
21.5
22.0
21.1
21.7
22.9
23.6
22.5
24.0

10.4
10.3
10.2
11.0
11.2
12.9
11.6
11.3
11.9
11.1

3,941
3,907
3,894
3,832
3,586
3,329
3,110
2,991
2,896
2,849

509
485
493
484
458
411
384
414
393
403

5,459
5,437
5,134
4,642
3,947
3,481
3,275
2,917
2,580

936
953
691
1,117
1,445
1,086
849
737
655
522

Less
than
5
weeks

5-14
weeks

15-26
weeks

27
weeks
and
over

Average
(mean)

Median

6,202
6,137
7,637
8,273
10,678

46.2
48.1
43.1
41.7
36.4

31.0
31.7
32.3
30.7
31.0

12.4
11.5
13.8
13.6
16.0

10.4
8.7
10.7
14.0
16.6

11.9
10.8
11.9
13.7
15.6

1982: Oct.....
Nov
Dec

11,576
11,906
12,036

33.9
32.9
32.9

30.2
29.5
28.3

16.8
18.2
17.4

19.1
19.4
21.3

1983: Jan.....
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct

11,446
11,490
11,381
11,328
11,192
11,146
10,590
10,699
10,423
9,886

30.8
32.6
30.7
32.1
31.9
32.8
32.7
34.2
36.2
35.6

28.9
27.1
28.1
28.5
27.0
26.1
26.1
28.3
26.9
27.8

16.8
16.8
16.7.
15.0
15.7
14.7
17.1
14.7
12.9
13.8

23.5
23.5
24.5
24.4
25.3
26.4
24.2
22.9
24.0
22.8

Initial
claims

Weekly av<jrage, thousa nds

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982.

1

.,

,

Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding.
Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and raUroad (RR) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program.
2




3

Federal supplemental compensation program.

Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration).

13

NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 320,000 in October.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)
22
WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE

90
ALL NONAGRICULTURAL
ESTABLISHMENTS

20

80

70

16

r/"

SERVICE-PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES

60

MANUFACTURING

20

50

40

CONSTRUCTION
.GOODS-PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES

30

PHltflll

1979

1979

1980

1980

1981

1982

"SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCit DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1983

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of wage and salary workers; l seasonally adjusted]
Serviee-preducing indiistries

Goods- producing inc ustries

P ttrinA
eriou

1977..

1978.
1979
1980
1981.
1982
1982: Oct
Nov
Dec.......

1983: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June .....
Jul?.
Augr.....
Sept r....
Oct *..;..

Total
nonagricultural
employment

1anufacturing
Total2

Construction

Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable
goods

Total

82,471
86,697
89,823
90,406
91,156
89,596

24,346
25,585
26,461
25,658
25,497
23,907

3,851
4,229
4,463
4,346
4,188
3,911

19,682
20,505
21,040
20,285
20,170
18,853

11,597
12,274
12,760
12,187
12,109
11,100

8,086
8,231
8,280
8,098
8,061
7,753

58,125
61,113
63,363
64,748
65,659
65,689

88,938
88,785
88,665

23,287
23,131
23,061

3,847
3,843
3,815

18,358
18,222
18,193

10,685
10,577
10,559

7,673
7,645
7,634

65,651
65,654
65,604

88,885
88,746
88,814
89,090
89,421
89,844
90,152
89,735
90,753
91,073

23,186
23,049
23,030
23,159
23,347
23,518
23,724
23,830
23,943
24,167

3,905
3,790
3,757
3,786
3,860
3,933
3,974
4,014
4,040
4,089

18,244
18,245
18,267
18,376
18,493
18,582
18,733
18,793
18,876
19,040

10,594
10,608
10,617
10,689
10,788
10,844
10,961
11,022
11,084
11,227

7,650
7,637
7,650
7,687
7,705
7,738
7,772
7,771
7,792
7,813

65,699
65,697
65,784
65,931
66,074
66,326
66,428
65,905
66,810
66,906

1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who
worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month,
Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces,
Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the
civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic
servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial dis-

14



Transportation and
public
utilities

4,713
4,923

5,136
5,146
5,165
5,081
5,033

5,019
5,008
4,979
4,966
4,963
4,988
4,993
4,992
4,984

4,341
5,027
5,304

Government

Finance,
insurance,
and real
estate

Services

18,516
19,542
20,192
20,310
20,547
20,401

4,467
4,724
4,975
5,160
5,298
5,340

15,303
16,252
17,112
17,890
18,619
19,064

2,727
2,753
2,773
2,866
2,772
2,739

12,399
12,919
13,174
13,375
13,259
13,064

20,344
20,320
20,256

5,350
5,356
5,367

19,144
19,187
19,215

2,742
2,746
2,747

13,038
13,026
13,011

20,355
20,343
20,350
20,329
20,356
20,494
20,529
20,580
20,613
20,669

5,374
5,384
5,391
5,423
5,435
5,451
5,465
5,488
5,496
5,501

19,238
19,262
19,356
19,478
19,546
19,668
19,770
19,835
19,921
20,024

2,748
2,742
2,742
2,738
2,756
2,742
2,738
2,733
2,741
2,732

13,005
13,000
12,982
12,975
12,988
12,979
12,942
12,928
13,012
12,946

Wholesale and
retail
trade

Federal

State
and
local

putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample
of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
* Includes mining, not shown separately,
n,»™rtfnA1,* nf T^hnr n,,mn nf T,«w q^tintiM
8°™™' Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Average giross hourly
earnings

Average weekly
hours
Period

Manufa £turing

Total
private
nonagricultural *

1974
1975

....

1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1982:

Oct
Nov
Dec
1983: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct*

Total

36.5
36.1
36.1
36.0
35.8
35.7
35.3
35.2
34.8
34.7
34.7
34.8
35.1
34.5
34.8
34.9
35.1
35.1
35.0
35.0
35.2
35.2

Total
private
nonagricultural l

Overtime

40.0

3.3

39.5
40.1
40.3
40.4
40.2
39.7
39.8
38.9
38.9
39.0
39.0
39.7
39.2
39.5
40.1
40.0
40.1
40.2
40.3
r
40.8
40.6

2.6
3.1
3.5
3.6
3.3
2.8
2.8
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.6
2.9
2.7
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.3
3.3

Manufacturing

$4.24
4.53
4.86
5.25
5.69
6.16
6.66
7.25
7.67

$4.42
4.83
5.22
5.68
6.17
6.70
7.27
7.99
8.50

7.76
7.78
7.82
7.88
7.91
7.91
7.95
7.97
8.00
8.03
7.98
8.08
8.13

8.58
8.61
8.63
8.68
8.76
8.75
8.78
8.79
8.82
8.85
8.84
r
8.87
8.93

Adjuste d hourly earninj»s index2 —total private
nonagnc ultural
Percent ehang e 4from
a year
earlie r 5

Ind ex,
1977 =-100

Current
dollars

Current
dollars

1977
dollars 8

80.0

86.7
92.9
100.0
c
108.2
116.8
127.3
138.9
148.3
150.7
151.1
151.9
152.7
153.4
153.4
154.0
154.6
154.8
155.2
155.0
155.9
156.8

98.3
97.6
99.0

100.0
100.5
97.4
93.5
92.6
93.3
93.1
93.4
94.1
94.7
95.3
95.0
94.8
94.7
94.8
94.7
94.0
94.2
94.4

C
C

8.0
8.4
7.2
7.6
8.2
7.9

9.0
9.1
6.8
6.2
5.7
6.0
5.4
5.7
5.4
5.2
4.8
4.6
4.3
3.6
3.9
4.1

1977 dollars

-2.8
-.7
1.4
1.0
.5

-3.1
-4.0
-1.0
.8
1.2
1.1
2.0
1.8
2.4
1.6
1.2
1.4
2.1
2.1
1.2
1.2
1.4

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Percent eh ange from
a year earlier,
total private n onagrieultural 5

Avera ge gross weekly eairmngs
Period

Current dollars
1974
1975

1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982....
1982: Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1983: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Septr.
Get"
1

Manufacturing

Total ]private
nonagnc ultural l

,

1977 dollars 3

8




Wholesale and
retail trade

Current dollars

1977 dollars

Current dollars

$154.76
163.53
175.45
189.00
203.70
219.91
235.10
255.20
266.92

$190.12
184.16
186.85
189.00
189.31
183.41
172.74
170.13
167.87

$176.80
190.79
209.32
228.90
249.27
269.34
288.62
318.00
330.65

$249.25
266.08
283.73
295.65
318.69
342.99
367.78
399.26
426.45

$119.02
126.45
133.79
142.52
153.64
164.96
176.46
190.62
198.10

269.00
269.27
269.97
272.14

166.98
166.32
166.96
168.61

332.52
333.76
335.79
336.57

425.59
427.25
426.24
437.18

199.06
200.65
200.98
203.19

5.7
7.3
7.7
7.8
8.0
6.9
8.5
4.6
4.0
3.4
3.4
4.4

276.59
272.90
275.27
277.46
279.75
280.80
281.05
279.30
284.42
286.18

171.48
169.61
170.45
170.85
171.42
171.85
171.37
169.48
171.85
172.29

344.60
343.39
345.63
352.08
351.60
353.68
355.77
356.25
361.90
362.56

461.35
439.20
438.00
443.54
441.19
440.82
440.89
440.08
447.38
433.52

202.57
200.65
202.88
203.83
205.76
207.68
207.67
r
207.34
207.32
209.90

6.8
3.1
4.3
4.7
4.6
4.9
4.8
3.7
6.0
6.4

Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.
Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing.
Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index on a 1977=100 base.
Revised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 1978.
2

Construction

6.4

-4.1
-3.1
1.5
1.2
.2
3.1

-5.8
-1.5
-1.3
.9

-1.6
-1.1
.5
3.1
-.2
.6
.7
1.2
2.4
2.5
1.3
3.2
3.7

4

Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places.
5
Based on unadjusted data.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

15

PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR
Output pt r hour of
allpersons
Period
Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Outp ut

Business
sector

1

Hours of all
2
perstms

Nonfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

Compens ation per

houi- 3

Nonfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Real com pensation

Business
sector

Implici ", price
defla tor 5

Unit labor

per h our 4

COst

Nonfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

19'r7 = 100;cluarterly ( ata seasoimlly adjus ted

1969

85.5

86.5

79.0

78.8

92.5

91.1

54.2

54.8

89.6

90.6

63.4

63.4

63.2

63.3

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

86.2
89.2
92.4
94.7
92.5

86.8
89.7
93.0
95.3
92.9

78.4

78.0
80.3
85.8
91.7
89.8

91.0

90.5
93.2
96.8
97.3

89.8
89.5
92.3
96.2
96.7

58.2
62.0
66.1
71.3
78.0

58.7
62.5
66.7
71.7
78.5

90.8
92.8
95.7
97.3
95.9

91.5
93.5
96.6
97.8
96.4

67.5
69.5
71.5
75.3
84.4

67.6

80.7
86.1
91.7
89.9

69.7
71.7
75.3
84.5

66.0
69.0
71.3
75.3
82.4

66.3
69.3
71.3
74.0
81.6

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

94.5
97.6
100.0
100.6
99.4

94.7
97.8
100.0
100.6
99.1

88.2
93.8
100.0
105.5
107.8

87.8
93.7
100.0
105.7
108.0

93.3
96.0
100.0
104.9
108.5

92.7
95.8
100.0
105.0
109.0

85.5
92.9
100.0
108.6
118.7

86.0
93.0
100.0
108.6
118.4

96.3
98.9
100.0
100.9
99.1

96.8
99.0
100.0
100.9
98.9

90.5
95.1
100.0
108.0
119.5

90.8
95.1
100.0
108.0
119.5

90.4
94.7
100.0
107.5
117.2

90.0
94.6
100.0
107.1
116.5

1980
1981
1982

98.9
101.3
101.2

98.4
100.3
100.2

106.5
109.8
106.7

106.5
109.3
106.3

107.6
108.4
105.4

108.2
109.0
106.0

131.2
143.9
155.1

130.7
143.5
154.7

96.5
95.9
97.4

96.1
95.6
97.1

132.7
142.1
153.3

132.8
143.0
154.4

128.1
140.1
147.7

128.1
140.4
148.6

1981: ffl
IV

102.3
101.2

101.1
99.9

111.2
108.9

110.5
108.2

108.7
107.7

109.4
108.2

145.5
148.2

145.1
147.7

95.6
95.6

95.3
95.4

142.3
146.4

143.5
147.8

141.5
144.3

141.8
145.0

1982: I

101.1
100.7
101.1
101.9

100.0
99.9
100.4
100.8

107.2
106.9
106.6
106.0

106.5
106.7
106.5
105.4

106.0
106.2
105.4
104.0

106.5
106.8
106.0
104.6

151.6
153.9
156.5
158.7

151.3
153.5
156.1
158.3

97.1
97.4
97.1
98.0

96.9
97.1
96.9
97.8

149.9
152.9
154.7
155.6

151.3
153.6
155.4
157.1

145.5
147.5
148.5
149.4

146.4
148.3
149.1
150.5

102.5
103.8
104.7

101.7
103.3
104.1

107.1
110.2
112.6

106.7
110.0
112.6

104.5
106.2
107.6

104.9
106.5
108.2

160.7
162.1
164.2

161.0
162.7
164.4

99.4
99.2
99.4

99.5
99.6
99.4

156.9
156.2
156.9

158.3
157.4
157.9

151.5
152.7
153.6

152.4
153.6
154.6

n
m
IV

1983:

I

nr

ffl ....

Peircent change; quarte rly data at seasonall y adjusted annual ra tes

1969

0.2

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

.8
3.6
3.5
2.6
-2.4

2.9

2.9

2.6

3.2

7.0

6.5

1.5

1.1

6.7

6.8

4.9

4.7

.3
3.3
3.7
2.4
-2.5

-.8
3.0
6.6
6.6
-2.0

-1.0
2.9
6.9
6.8
-2.0

-1.6
-.5
3.0
3.9
.4

-1.3
-.4
3.1
4.3
.5

7.3
6.6
6.5
8.0
9.4

7.0
6.6
6.7
7.6
9.4

1.3
2.2
3.1
1.6
-1.4

1.0
2.2
3.3
1.3
-1.4

6.4
2.9
2.9
5.3
12.1

6.6
3.1
2.8
5.0
12.2

4.5
4.4
3.4
5.5
9.5

4.8
4.5
3.0
3.8
10.2

2.2
3.3
2.4
.6
-1.2

2.0
3.2
2.2
.6
-1.5

-2.0
6.4
6.6
5.5
2.3

-2.2
6.7
6.7
5.7
2.2

-4.1
3.0
4.1
4.9
3.5

-4.1
3.4
4.4
5.0
3.7

9.6
8.6
7.7
8.6
9.4

9.6
8.1
7.5
8.6
9.0

.5
2.6
1.2
.9
-1.7

.4
2.2
1.0
.9
-2.0

7.3
5.1
5.1
8.0
10.7

7.5
4.8
5.2
8.0
10.7

9.8
4.7
5.6
7.5
9.0

10.3
5.1
5.7
7.1
8.8

-.5
2.4
-.1

-.7
1.9
-.1

-1.3
3.1
-2.8

-1.4
2.7
-2.8

-.8
.7
-2.7

-.7
.7
-2.7

10.5
9.7
7.7

10.4
9.8
7.8

-2.6
-.6
1.5

2.8
-.6
1.6

11.1
7.1
7.9

11.1
7.7
7.9

9.2
9.4
5.4

10.0
9.6
5.8

1981: HI
IV

4.7
-4.1

3.8
-4.4

5.2
-7.8

4.3
-8.3

.5
-3.9

.5
-4.0

9.6
7.5

9.6
7.6

-2.2
.3

-2.1
.3

4.7
12.2

5.6
12.6

9.9
8.2

10.0
9.5

1982: I

-.4
-1.6
1.7
3.3

.1
-.4
2.3
1.3

-6.3
-1.0
-1.1
-2.3

-6.2
.8
-.6
-4.1

-6.0
.6
-2.7
-5.4

-6.2
1.2
-2.9
-5.3

9.4
6.4
6.7
5.7

10.0
5.8
7.2
5.8

6.3
1.1
-1.0
3.7

6.8
.5
-.6
3.7

9.8
8.1
5.0
2.3

9.9
6.2
4.7
4.4

3.4
5.5
2.7
2.6

3.7
5.4
2.2
3.7

2.0
5.4
3.5

3.7
6.6
3.1

4.9
13.2
9.8

2.1
6.5
5.3

1.2
6.2
6.5

5.4
3.5
5.3

6.8
4.3
4.2

5.8
__.7
.5

7.2
.1
-.5

3.3
-1.8
1.8

3.0
-2.1
1.1

5.5
3.3
2.5

5.3
3.2
2.5

,.

1975
1976
1977
1978....
1979
1980
1981
1982

n
m
IV

1983: I

nr
m ....

-0.3

4.2
12.2
9.0

1
Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars.
2
Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors
and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data.
3
Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private
benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed.
* Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index.

16



6

Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.

NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector.
Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may
differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

PRODUCTION AND

ACTIVITY

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Industrial production rose 0.8 percent in October, following a rise of 1.3 percent in September. The index for
October was 14.1 percent above its year earlier level.
INDEX, 1967=100*

INDEX, 1967=100*

(RATIO SCALE)

TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

(RATIO SCALE)

UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION

180

160
UTILITIES

140

\J
MINING

\
\

120

1981

1982

1983

100

MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION

1979

1980

1981

1983

1982

PERCENT*

MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE

80

120

60 U
1980

1981

1983

1982

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

[Seasonally adjusted]

Period
Index,
1967 = 100

1967 proportion

1973
1974
1975
1976
1^77
1978
1979...

1980
1981
1982
1982: Oct
Nov
Dec
1983: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
Julv r
Aug r
Sept r

Oct"
1
2

Output as percent of capacity.
Annual data are averages of the four monthly indexes.




Manufa cturing

Manufacturing

Percent
change
from year
earlier

100.00

129.8
129.3
117.8
130.5
138.2
146.1
152.5
147.0
151.0
138.6
135.7
134.9
135.2
137.4
138.1
140.0
142.6
144.4
146.4
149.7
151.7
153.6
154.8

Capacity u tilization rate , percent l

Industry proc uction indexes , 1967 = 100

Total
Indus trial
produ ction

Mining
Total

87.95

8.4

-.4
-8.9
10.8
5.9
5.7
4.4
3.6
2.7
-8.2
-9.0
-7.8
-5.7
-2.3
-3.4
-1.2
1.7
3.7
5.6
7.9
9.6
11.9
14.1

129.8
129.4
116.3
130.3
138.4
146.8
153.6
146.7
150.4
137.6
135.0
134.0
134.5
136.7
138.2
140.4
143.1
145.1
147.4
150.6
152.6
154.8
156.2

Durable

51.98
127.1
125.7
109.3
122.3
130.0
139.7
146.4
136.7
140.5
124.7
120.3
119.3
119.9
122.5
123.9
126.3
129.1
131.0
133.2
136.8
138.7
141.6
143.5

Utilities

Nondurable

35.97

6.36

5.69

133.8
134.6
126.4
141.8
150.5
156.9
164.0
161.2
164.8
156.2
156.2
155.3
155.6
157.4
159.0
160.7
163.3
165.4
167.8
170.6
172.5
173.9
174.6

114.7
115.3
112.8
114.2
118.2
124.0
125.5
132.7
142.2
126.1
115.9
116.8
118.4
121.9
115.6
112.6
111.6
112.8
112.6
115.0
116.3
117.4
118.5

145.4
143.7
146.0
151.7
156.5
161.4
166.0
168.3
169.1
168.7
167.8
166.7
164.2
163.1
162.0
165.8
169.3
169.7
169.8
176.0
179.5
176.4
174.8

Federal
Reserve
series

87.6
83.7

72.9
79.6
82.2
84.7
86.0
79.6
79.4
71.1
69.4
68.8
68.9
70.0
70.6
71.6
72.9
73.8
74.9
76.4
77.3
78.3
78.9

Commerce
series 2

86
83
77
81
83
84
83
78
76
70
68
70
73

Industrial
materials
(Federal
Reserve
series)

91.7
87.0
73.3
81.1
82.6
85.6
87.6
80.4
80.7
70.1
67.9
67.0
66.6
68.7
70.1
71.5
72.5
73.5
74.4
76.5
77.4
78.4
78.9

Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Department of Commerce
(Bureau of Economic Analysis).

17

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND
SELECTED MANUFACTURES
[1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted]
Prod ucts

F nal produc s

Intenmediate pro ducts

Co nsumer goods

Equipment

Materi-

Period
Total
Total

1967 proportion

47.82

27.68

1973
1974
1975
1976

124.4
125.1
118.2
127.6
135.9
142.2
147.2
145.3
149.5
141.5
138.7
138.3
139.5
140.1
138.9
139.9
142.8
144.5
146.4
149.0
150.6
152.5
153.8

131.5
128.9
124.0
137.1
145.3
149.1
150.8
145.4
147.9
142.6
142.2
141.3
142.0
143.6
143.4
144.3
147.7
150.4
152.4
154.8
156.1
157.8
158.2

»

,.

1977...

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1982: Oct....

Nov
Dec
1983: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May

.

.

June
July r

Aug '

Septr.
Oet p

.

Durable
goods

Nondurable
goods

7.89
146.2
135.3
121.4
141.9
154.0
159.2
155.8
136.7
140.5
129.2
126.5
124.6
125.9
131.6
134.4
136.3
140.5
145.5
149.2
152.9
154.0
157.9
158.0

19.79
125.6
126.3
125.1
135.2
141.9
145.1
148.8
148.9
150.9
148.0
148,5
147.9
148.4
148.3
147.0
147.5
150.5
152.3
153.6
155.6
156.9
157.8
158.2

Total

20.14
114.5
120.0
110.2
114.6
123.0
132.8
142.2
145.2
151.8
139.8
134.0
134.2
136.1
135.3
132.7
133.8
136.2
136.5
138.2
141.0
143.1
145.1
147.8

Business

Defense
and
space
equipment

12.63
134.2
142.4
128.2
135.4
147.8
160.3
171.3
173.2
181.1
157.9
147.1
146.4
148.1
146.6
142.7
143.7
146.9
147.7
150.2
153.3
156.5
158.8
162.3

7.51
81.4
82.4
80.0
79.8
81.3
86.5
93.4
98.2
102.7
109.4
111.9
113.6
115.9
116.4
116.1
117.0
118.2
117.6
118.0
120.4
120.7
122.0
123.5

Total

12.89
137.2
135.3
123.1
137.2
145.1
154.1
160.5
151.9
154.4
143.3
141.6
141.8
141.5
143.7
145.3
147.8
150.8
152.2
154.5
158.1
161.7
163.2
163.9

Construction
supplies

6.42
139.8
134.5
116.3
132.6
140.6
151.7
158.0
140.9
141.9
124.3
122.5
123.4
123.0
127.0
129.7
133.1
136.4
138.4
142.1
145.8
149.2
150.7
151.0

.

nle

supplies

6.47
134.6
136.0
129.7
141.7
149.5
156.5
163.1
162.8
166.7
162.1
160.5
160.1
159.8
160.3
160.9
162.3
165.2
166.0
166.8
170.4
174.1
175.6

39.29

133.9
132.4
115.5
131.7
138.6
148.3
156.4
147.6
151.6
133.7
130.0
128.4
127.8
132.0
134.9
137.6
139.7
141.7
143.7
147.8
149.6
151.7
153.0

Supplementary
group:
Energy
total

12.23
128.3
125.5
125.5
129.1
132.9
135.4
137.9
137.7
137.4
135.7
134.1
133.3
132.2
132.4
131.0
131.9
133.9
133.8
133.6
138.5
139.5
137.8
137.1

[1967=100, seasonally adjusted]

I Tondurable inanufaeture s

Durable miuiufactures
Tramp srtation
equipment

Primary metals
Period
Total

1967 proportion

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980

.

1981...

1982
1982: Oct
Nov
Dec
1983: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July r

Aug r
Sept

r

Oct *

6.57
126.7
123.1
96.4
109.7
111.1
119.9
121.3
102.3
107.9
75.3
69.6
63.6
63.5
73.1
77.9
81.2
83.1
84.9
84.8
85.5
87.2
91.3
94.1

Iron and
steel

4.21
122.3
119.8
95.8
104.8
103.8
113.2
113.2
92.4
99.8
61.7
54.1
47.5
46.6
59.0
64.3
66.9
68.5
69.5
69.7
71.8
75.1
78.1

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

18




Fabricated metal
products

5.93
124.7
124.2
109.9
123.9
131.0
141.6
148.5
134.1
136.4
114.8
107.6
107.0
107.3
107.6
110.3
113.9
115.3
115.5
118.5
122.7
126.0
128.2
129.3

Nonelectrical
machinery

9.15
133.7
140.1
125.1
134.5
143.6
153.6
163.7
162.8
171.2
149.0
140.4
139.6
139.2
138.0
136.2
138.6
143.1
146.1
149.5
154.2
157.2
158.5
161.9

Electrical
machinery
Total

8.05
143.1
143.8
116.5
134.8
145.4
159.4
175.0
172.8
178.4
169.3
165.4
165.5
165.5
169.5
168.9
173.8
177.2
180.1
182.4
188.3
189.2
194.4
198.1

9.27
118.3
108.7
97.4
111.1
122.2
132.5
135.4
116.9
116.1
104.9
100.8
100.2
103.7
106.3
109.6
110.1
111.4
113.8
116.6
119.7
121.1
124.7
125.6

Motor
vehicles
and parts

4.50
148.8
128.2
111.1
142.0
161.1
169.9
159.9
119.0
122.3
109.8
103.0
101.7
108.8
113.9
123.0
123.2
125.5
130.4
136.2
142.3
144.3
150.7
151.1

Lumber
and
products

1.64
126.0
116.2
107.6
123.2
131.2
136.3
136.9
119.3
119.1
112.6
117.2
119.1
121.4
130.0
130.2
128.7
132.1
135.8
137.4
141.3
141.6
141.$

Apparel
products

3.31
117.3
114.3
107.6
125.7
134.2
134.2
134.4
127.0
120.4

Printing
and
publishing

Chemicals and
products

4.72
118.2
118.2
113.3
122.5
127.6
131.5
136.9
139.6
144.2
144.1
142.0
141.7
142.8
141.3
144.0
145.9
145.7
145.2
147.4
152.0
156.3
158.6
160.9

7.74
154.5
159.4
147.2
170.9
185.7
197.4
211.8
207.1
215.6
196.1
194.1
192.8
195.9
197.6
202.3
205.7
208.5

211.0
214.7
218.3
220.4

222.1

Foods

8.75
120.9
124.0
123.4
133.0
138.8
142.7
147.5
149.6
152.1
151.1
151.5
152.0
152.8
154.4
153.0
152.0
153.7
155.6
157.7
159.9
159.0

NEW CONSTRUCTION
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Constructio n contracts 2

Private
Total new
construction
expenditures

Period

Resic lential
Total

Commercial
and industrial

New housing
units

Total 1

Other

Federal,
State, and
local

Total value
index
(1977 = 100)

Commercial
and industrial
floor space
(millions of
square feet)

I illions of dollars
1975
1976
4977
1978....

1979
1980
1981
1982

-..

•„..
.

135.9
151.1
173.8
205.6
230.4
230.7
239.4
232.0

95.1
112.0
135.7
159.7
181.6
175.7
186.1
181.0

46.5
60.5
81.0
93.4
99.0
87.3
86.6
74.8

34.4
47.3
65.7
75.8
78.6
63.1
62.7
51.9

20.8

27.8

19.9
22.5
29.6
39.9
43.8
51.3
54.6

31.5
32.2
36.7
42.7
44.7
48.2
51.5

66.0
79.0
100.0
114.0
122.0
107.0
107.0
111.0

40.9
39.1
38.2
45.9

48.8
55.0
53.3
51.1

Oct
Nov
Dec

1983:

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July.........
Aug p
Sept"
Oet p

739
977
1,059
904
906
685
Annual rates

Annual rates
1982: Sept..

555
592

230.7
234.1
243.7
240.2

178.2
181.9
190.5
190.8

71.7
76.4
81.2
86.0

53.0
53.6
55.8
58.6

54.6
54.1
54.6
52.6

51.9
51.4
54.7
52.2

52.5
52.2
53.2
49.4

114
105
122
131

671
656
608
595

247.9
243.0
241.9
247.4
254.8
264.3
269.6
274.8
272.7

195.0
194.3
194.9
199.5
206.0
214.7
218.5
221.4
222.2

89.7
93.6
96.1
102.0
107.5
113.5
118.2
120.2
118.4

63.4
68.8
72.3
77.3
82.2
87.9
92.7
94.8
92.7

53.3
51.0
49.7
46.8
46.3
49.0
48.1
50.5
50.5

52.0
49.8
49.0
50.7
52.2
52.2
52.2
50.7
53.3

52.9
48.7
47.0
47.9
48.7
49.6
51.1
53.4
50.6

127
119
131
129
148
151
137
146
143
139

803
693
632
652
734
785
741
783
830
856

1
Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately.
2
F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971
for floor space.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company, F. W. Dodge Division.

NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES
[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]
New prrv ate homes

New private housing units
Period

Units started, by type of structure
Total

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982

1 unit

1,160.4
1,537.5
1,987.1
2,020.3
1,745.1
1,292.2
1,084.2
1,062.2

892.2
1,162.4
1,450.9
1,433.3
1,194.1
852.2
705.4
662.6

1982: Oct..........
Nov
Dec....

1,142
,361
,280

1983: Jan
Feb.
Mar
Apr
May...
June
July...
Aug r
Sept r
Oet p

,694
,784
,605
,506
,807
,736
,804
,904
1,672
1,608

716
868
842
1,126
1,103
1,008
1,001
1,183
1,127
1,032
1,135
1,039
964

2-4 units
64.0

85.9
121.7
125.0
122.0
109.5
91.1
80.0

5 or more units
204.3
289.2
414.4
462.0
429.0
330.5
287.7
319.6

Units
authorized
939.2
1,296.2
1,690.0
1,800.5
1,551.8
1,190.6
985.5
1,000.5

Units
completed

Homes sold

Vacancy rate

Homes for
sale at end of
period *

1,317.2
1,377.2
1,657.1
1,867.5
1,870.8
1,501.6
1,265.7
1,005.5

549
646
819

817
709
545
436
412

313
353
402
414
3
398
336
272
251

1,077
1,053
1,035

481
545
529
611
593
611
635
665

245
246
251
259
262
262
266
273

housing units
(percent) 2

6.0
5.6
5.2
5.0
5.4
5.4
5.0

5.3

Seasonal [y adjusted annu al rates

1

66
79
79
100
117
100
117
-96
123
135
110
121
115

360
414
359
468
564
497
388
528
486
637
659
512
529

Seasonally adjusted.
Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable
with earlier data.
3
New series beginning March 1979.
2




1,154
1,227
1,326
1,447
1,479
1,467
1,536
1,635
1,761
1,782
1,652
1,506
1,647

1,195
1,138
1,147
1,164
1,353
1,386
r
1,432
1,714
1,476

r

658
599

r

556
632

r
r

284
290

298
298

5.5

5.7
5.5
5.8

NOTE.—Units authorized beginning 1978 relate to 16,000 permit-issuing places; data for
1973-77 are for 14,000 places.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

19

BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade
Manufacturing and trade sales rose 1.5 percent in September and inventories rose $2.5 billion. According to the
advance survey, total retail sales rose 1.1 percent in October following an increase of 1.3 percent in September.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)

600

160
150

550

140
500

130

450

RETAIL INVENTORIES

120
110

400

100
350

300

RETAIL SALES

250

200
1 1 1 1 1i I1 1 M I i
1979

RATIO*
1.80

150

1.70

1980

1981

I

1982

1983

INVENTORY-SALES RATIO
MANUFACTURING
AND TRADE —

1.60
1.50
1.40
1.30

100 In

1.20
1979

1980

1982

1981

'1983

1979

1983

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Manufacti iring and
trat e 1

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Sales

Inventories 3

Inventories 3

Sales 2

Period
2

Inventory-sales ratio 4

Re tail

Wholesale

Sales

2

InvenTotal

Durable
goods
stores

Nondurable goods
stores

Total

Durable
goods
stores

Nondurable goods
stores

Manufacturing

Retail

i

Millions of dollars, seasonally iidjusted

1975
1976
1977...
1978
1979.
1980
1981
1982

182,230
204,277
229,624
260,307
297,663
327,284
356,099
344,179

288,375
318,544
351,036
398,890
450,736
492,885
526,152
511,942

46,623
50,694
55,987
66,117
78,680
92,658
100,673
95,363

56,697
64,078
72,311
85,685
98,394
112,341
116,986
118,790

49,012
54,781
60,435
67,286
75,047
80,235
87,298
89,640

15,247
18,150
20,724
23,218
25,196
24,401
26,335
26,739

33,765
36,631
39,711
44,067
49,850
55,834
60,963
62,901

71,744
79,273
89,530
102,790
111,229
116,430
126,833
128,250

33,356
37,841
43,135
49,987
53,717
54,400
59,095
59,597

38,388
41,432
46,395
52,803
57,512
62,030
67,738
68,653

1982: Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

342,882
336,905
338,722
338,391

521,000
519,797
513,888
511,942

92,527
91,806
91,912
91,389

119,537
120,162
118,349
118,790

89,897
90,905
92,492
92,459

26,619
27,154
28,721
28,723

63,278
63,751
63,771
63,736

129,788
128,849
127,619
128,250

61,668
60,581
59,417
59,597

68,120
68,268
68,202
68,653

1983:

345,337
341,490
348,009
351,100
363,925
373,572
372,434
374,434
379,921

507,550
507,665
503,222
504,796
505,658
505,521
505,826
510,430
512,901

94,790
92,245
92,943
92,586
97,529
100,479
100,315
100,644
102,030

117,564
116,417
116,591
117,498
115,855
115,630
115,745
116,813
117,514

92,308
91,164
93,263
95,449
98,431
99,173
99,521
97,801
r
99,lll
100,175

28,307
27,490
29,160
30,668
32,124
32,663
32,539
30,893
r
31,972
32,891

64,001
63,674
64,103
64,781
66,307
66,510
66,982
66,908
r
67,139
67,284

127,869
130,392
129,327
129,901
131,654
132,501
131,905
133,783
135,366

59,735
61,517
60,412
60,640
61,401
62,019
61,284
62,313
64,038

68,134
68,875
68,915
69,261
70,253
70,482
70,621
71,470
71,328

1
2
3

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr..
May
June
July
Aug '
Septp
Get*

See page 21 for manufacturing.
Monthly average for year and total for month.
Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted.

20



.57

.48
.46
.44
.43
.45
.44
.51
.52
.54
.52
.51
.47
.49
.45
.44
.39
.35
.36
.36
.35

.44
.38
.40
.43
.44
.42
.40
.41
.44
.42
.38
.39
.39
.43
.39
.36
.34
.34
.33
.37
.37

4
For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly
data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month.

Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).

MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
In September, manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders rose, in October, according to advance data,
durable goods shipments fell and new orders rose.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
240

360

—SHIPMENTS-

320
280

200
180
160
140

H.INVENTORIES-

240
200

120
.01!!!!!!!^!

160

100

DURABLE GOODS

DURABLE GOODS

120

80
NONDURABLE GOODS

100

7"

60
80

NONDURABLE GOODS
i
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

60

1 1 1 1 1 I i1 111

40

1 I 111I1

1 1 1 1 1 !i i 1 1 1

1 1111i

RATIO

2.2

INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO

2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2 U I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

I I i I ! I I I I I I

I I I I I I I I I I I

* SEASON ALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Manufa eturers' shipinents *

1Manufacturers new orders i

Manufai jturers' inven tones 2

Durabh3 goods
Period

Total

Durable
goods

I I I I i I I I I I I

1 9 7 9 I 1 9 8 0 T 1 9 8 1 I 1 9 8 2 I 1 9 8 3

1983

Nondurable goods

Durable
goods

Total

Nondurable goods

Total
Total

Capital
goods
industries,
nondefense

Nondurable goods

Manufacturers'
unfilled
orders 3

Manufacturers'
inventory—
shipments
ratio 4

Millions of do liars, seasoimlly adjust3d
1975

1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982

86,595
98,802
113,202
126,905
143,936
154,391
168,129
159,177

43,656
50,689
59,267
67,848
76,060
77,550
83,872
76,843

42,939
48,113
53,935
59,057
67,876
76,841
84,257
82,334

159,934
175,193
189,195
210,415
241,113
264,114
282,333
264,902

102,874
112,581
121,575
137,834
160,554
174,547
186,222
175,200

57,060
62,612
67,620
72,581
80,559
89,567
96,111
89,702

85,149
99,543
115,061
131,616
147,466
156,142
167,924
157,371

42,019
51,398
61,111
72,409
79,513
79,341
83,725
75,103

11,011
12,799
15,291
19,458
23,231
23,259
24,059
20>687

43,130
48,145
53,950
59,207
67,953
76,801
84,199
82,268

173,829
182,499
205,675
262,671
305,453
325,908
323,346
300,971

1.84
1.69
1.61

1982: Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

160,458
154,194
154,318
154,543

76,419
72,478
73,005
73,495

84,039
81,716
81,313
81,048

271,675
270,786
267,920
264,902

180,520
179,675
177,061
175,200

91,155
91,111
90,859
89,702

156,572
152,362
152,604
157,382

72,348
70,735
71,067
76,180

20,217
20,127
19,983
19,679

84,224
81,627
81,537
81,202

301,678
299,846
298,132
300,971

1.69
1.76
1.74
1.71

1983: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July...
Aug
Sept*
Get*

158,239
158,081
161,803
163,065
167,965
173,920
172,598
175,989
178,780

77,744
77,769
79,595
80,241
82,669
86,582
85,646
87,918
r
88,970
88,077

80,495
80,312
82,208
82,824
85,296
87,338
86,952
88,071
89,810

262,117
260,856
257,304
257,397
258,149
257,390
258,176
r
259,834
260,021

172,506
171,572
169,377
169,814
170,734
169,840
169,693
r
170,576
170,385

89,611
89,284
87,927
87,583
87,415
87,550
88,483
89,258
89,636

162,871
157,757
162,587
166,025
169,874
178,489
175,455
r
178,302
181,151

82,355
77,449
79,951
83,101
84,456
90,905
88,234
89,978
r
90,996
93,728

20,507
19,175
20,032
22,592
22,228
24,289
21,580
23,028
r
25,213
26,415

80,516
80,308
82,636
82,924
85,418
87,584
87,221
r
88,324
90,155

305,599
305,268
306,053
309,015
310,922
315,488
318,348
r
320,664
323,032

1.66
1.65
1.59
1.58
1.54
1.48
1.50
1.48
1.45

1
2
3

Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales.
Book value, end of period.
End of period.




1.57
1.57
1.66
1.64
1.73

4
For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for
monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

PRICES
PRODUCER PRICES
In October, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.3 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished
consumer foods rose 1.1 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods were about unchanged. Prices of
capital equipment rose 0.3 percent.
INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)

INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)
320

300

160

140

140

120

120
1975
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Internlediate ma terials

Fin shed goods

Period

1975
1976
.1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1982: Get
Nov
Dec
1983: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June r
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
1

Fiinished go(>ds excluding consumer foo is

Total
finished
goods

sumer
foods

163.4
170.6
181.7

181.0
180.4
189.9

195.9
217.7
247.0
269.8
280.7
283.8
285.5
286.4
283.3
283.8
283.0
283.0
283.7
285.1
285.3
286.4
286.9
287.8

207.2
226.2
239.5
253.6
259.3
258.2
258.2
258.8
258.3
260.9
261.4
264.2
262.9
261.4
259.6
260.7
262.4
265.3

Con-

Total
156.2
166.1
177.7
190.7
213.3
247.8
273.3
285.8
290.3
292.5
293.5
289.5
289.2
288.1
287.1
288.4
290.8
291.8
292.9
293.0
293.1

Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds.

22



Total

Durable

Total

Nondurable

Capital
equipment

Consumer gcwds

153.1
162.6
174.3

138.2
144.5
152.8

163.0
174.8
189.3

162.5
173.4
184.6

186.7
211.5
250.8
276.5
287.8
293.2
295.8
296.7
290.8
290.0
288.0
286.7
288.3
291.4
292.5
293.2
293.7
293.6

166.9
183.2
206.2
218.6
226.7
228.5
229.8
230.4
229.6
232.2
232.6
232.4
232.9
234.0
233.8
234.7
233.8
232.8

200.0

199.2
216.5
239.8
264.3
279.4
282.0
283.1
284.4
283.9
285.0
285.8
285.6
286.2
287.0
287.7
289.6
288.8
289.6

231.3

283.9
319.6
333.6
341.7
345.3
346.4
337.3
333.7
329.7
327.4
330.0
334.7
336.8
337.4
338.9
339.6

,

163.6
169.7
180.7
194.9
217.9
248.9
271.3
281.0
284.4
286.2
287.0
283.1
283.4
282.2
282.3
282.9
284.5
284.6
285.5
286.4
287.3

Total

180.0
189.1
201.5
215.6
242.2
280.3
306.0
310.4
310.9
311.7
311.8
310.1
309.8
308.6
307.2
308.6
311.1
312.2
314.0
316.1
317.0

Foods

Criide materials

and

Other

Total

195.3
185.3
190.5
203.1
226.1

178.6
189.4

196.9
202.7
209.2
234.4
274.3
304.6
329.0
319.5
314.3
317.3
316.6
315.8
316.8
318.9
323.9
324.1
323.6
319.7
326.5
328.0
327.2

feeds *

252.6
250.3
239.4
234.0
233.7
234.0
236.0
239.4
239.8
246.3
245.3
243.2
242.3
250.5
260.9
258.0

202.3
216.5
244.4
282.3
310.1
315.7
316.6
317.4
317.5
315.6
315.0
313.7
311.9
313.3
316.2
317.4
318.8
320.3
321.5

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Foodstuffs
and

Other

191.8
190.2
192.1
216.2

206.9
228.5
245.0
272.3
330.0
401.0
482.3
473.9
480.4
484.8
480.6
472.6
463.3
466.4
466.5
472.9
479.9
481.2
482.3
486.1
482.3

feedstuffs

247.9
259.2
257.4
247.8
237.0
239.4
240.3
243.0
248.8
250.5
258.0
255.0
251.0
244.6
254.2
254.6
255.2

CONSUMER PRICES
In October, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.4 percent seasonally adjusted (0.3 percent not
seasonally adjusted). The index was 2.9 percent above its level in October 1982.
IN!
32

•67=100 (RATIO SCALE)

INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE)
320

300

300

280

280

260

260

240

240

220

220

ALL ITEMS

200

200

180

180

160

160

140

140

120

120

ill I i j
1975

1979

1976

1981

1980

1982

SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1983

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1967 = 100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Ti ansportati (>n

Hoy sing
She her
Period

All
items l

Food

HomeTotal1
Total

Renters*
costs 2

NSA
Rel imp.5
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
.
1982: Oct
Nov
Dec
1983: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July ......
Aug
Sept
Oct

100.0

19.0

161.2
170.5
181.5
195.4
217.4
246.8
272.4
289.1
294.1
293.6
292.4
293.1
293.2
293.4
295.5
297.1
298.1
299.3
300.3
301.8
302.6

175.4
180.8
192.2
211.4
234.5
254.6
274.6
285.7
288.1
288.2
288.1
288.3
288.3
290.1
291.3
292.2
291.3
291.0
291.6
292.5
293.9

1
Includes items not shown separately.
2
December 1982=100.
8
Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol
4

37.7
164.5
174.6
186.5
202.8
227.6
263.3
293.5
314.7
320.5
319.9
317.4
318.9
318.9
318.7
320.4
321.5
322.1
323.4
324.2
325.8
326.6

21.3
169.7
179.0
191.1
210.4
239.7
281.7
314.7
337.0
342.6
340.7
336.0
338.3
339.1
339.2
341.6
342.7
343.6
345.3
346.6
348.4
349.8

6.9

100.2
100.8
101.1
101.3
101.7
102.2
102.5
103.1
103.6
104.3
104.7

owners'

Maintenance
and

costs 2

repairs

NSA

NSA

13.9

0.5

100.0
100.7
100.9
100.9
101.7
102.0
102.2
102.7
103.0
103.5
103.9

187.6
199.6
214.7
233.0
256.4
285.7
314.4
334.1
339.4
339.0
337.8
342.9
339.4
339.9
343.6
344.3
345.1
346.1
347.9
346.6
351.1

beginning September 1981.
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant,

etc.8

Relative importance, December 1982.




Fuel
and

other
utilities

8.4
167.8
182.7
202.2
216.0
239.3
278.6
319.2
350.8
362.7
367.1
369.6
368.9
366.9
365.1
365.8
368.8
368.9
370.1
371.1
373.6
373.1

Apparel and

upkeep

Total 1

New

cars

5.2

21.8

3.5

142.3
147.6
154.2
159.6
166.6
178.4
186.9
191.8
193.3
193.2
192.7
193.2
194.2
194.1
194.5
195.8
196.5
197.7
198.4
198.4
198.4

150.6
165.5
177.2
185.5
212.0
249.7
280.0
291.5
296.4
296.0
295.8
293.9
289.1
289.0
292.1
295.8
297.1
298.6
301.6
304.1
305.9

127.6
135.7
142.9
153.8
166.0
179.3
190.2
197.6
199.2
198.7
199.3
199.4
201.1
202.6
201.3
200.6
200.8
200.8
202.5
204.5
205.9

Motor3
fuel

6.2
170.8
177.9
188.2
196.3
265.6
369,1
410.9
389.4
395.4
394.2
391.2
378.3
353.0
349.5
363.2
378.1
380.9
382.5
387.1
388.9
387.1

Medical
care

Energy 4

6.0
168.6
184.7
202.4
219.4
239.7
265.9
294.5
328.7
338.7
341.8
344.4
347.2
350.1
351.7
353.3
354.8
356.4
358.4
360.3
361.7
363,0

176.6
189.3
207.3
220.4
275.9
361.1
410.0
416.1
426.6
430.2
431.3
6
420.5
404.9
401.3
409.3
419.5
420.9
422.3
425.4
428.2
426.6

12A

All
items
less
food,
energy,
and
shelter

47.3
149.4
159.9
169.5
179.1
191.5
208.3
228.1
245.6
250.1
250.7
251.9
253.1
254.2
254.9
255.5
256.1
257.0
258.5
259.7
260.9
262.4

6
Energy excludes motor oil, coolant, etc. beginning January 1983.
NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and
clerical workers.
Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

23

CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

Ch ange from p receding per od

Change from 3 montl s earlier, ann jial rate

Change from 6 month s earlier, ann ual rate

Consum ?r goods

Consum 3r goods

Consum<jr goods

Total
finished

goods

Capital
equipment

Ixcluding foods

Foods

Total
finished
goods

Capital
equipment

Excluding
foods

Poods

Total
finished
goods

Capital
equipment

Excluding
foods

Foods

Change
from
vear
earlier,
total
finished

goods

NSA

Chimge, Dec. to Dec., N SA
18.3
6.6
3.7
6.9
9.2
12.8
11.8
7.1
3.7

1974
1975

1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982

........

13.0
5.5
-2.5
6.9
11.7
7.4
7.5
1.4
2.1

20.5
6.7
6.0
6.7
8.5
17.5
14.2
8.5
4.2

15.3
10.8
4.4
6.5
7.8
11.1
13.5
9.2
4.0

22.6
8.2
6.4
7.3
7.9
8.8
11.4
9.2
3.9

C lange, moiith to mon th

1982: Get
Nov
Dec
1983: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June r
July
Aug r
Sept
Oct

-0.0
0
.2

0.4
.6
.3
.

-1.1

-.2
1.0
.2
1.1
-.5
-.6
r

.2
-.3
0
.2
.5
.1
.4
.2
.3

0.0
.4
.5

3.7
4.3
5.2

-.2
.4
.3
i
.2
.3
r
.2
.7
-.3
.3

-.7
-2.4
-4.7
.4
-.1
3.0
3.3
3.9
r
2.5
3.6

0.7
.9
.3

-2.0

g

-.7
.5
.6
1.1
.4
.2
.2
-.0

-.l
A

.7
1.1

.8

6.7
8.1
7.8

2.2
1.1
3.6

4.9
6.2
4.7

.2
4.2
4.1
9.5
3.1
0
-6.8
3.3
r
1.5
9.1

-3.2
7.6
-11.2
5.5
-2.3
4.8
8.3
7.0
r
3.2
1.5

2.7
2.7
2.0
2.4
1.7
1.7
3.0
4.8
r
2.5
2.7

1.5
.9
.1
-.6
-1.3
-.9
1.4
1.8
2.8
3.4

-1.5
-1.8

NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.

"

-2.6
-3.1
-3.5

-.7
1.2
2.4
4.7
3.7
2.0
1.0
-.2
.8
.8

8.4
11.0
8.7

4.0
3.9
3.5

3.6
3.7
3.7

1.6
j
-2.2
—4.4
-5.0
-3.5
1.2
2.2
4.0
4.9

2.4
1.9
2.8
2.6
2.2
1.8
2.7
3.3
2.1
2.8

2.2
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.3
1.8
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.3

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Hoiising

Period

All
items 1

Food

Total

1

Total1

Renters'
costs

Addendunn: All items, percent
chan ge (annual nite)

Tr ansportati on
All

Sh elter

Ap-

Homeowners'

Maintenance
and

NSA

NSA

Fuel
and
other
utilities

parel
and
upkeep

Total

l

New
cars

Motor2
fuel

Medical
care

Ener3

gy

items
less
food,
energy,
and
shelter

From
3
months
earlier

From
6
months
earlier

From
year
earlier

NSA

Chan|re, Deeeirtber to I )ecembe r, NSA

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982

12.2

9.0
13.3
12.4
8.9
3.9

12.2
6.5
.6
8.0
11.8
10.2
10.2
4.3
3.1

13.4
7.5
5.4
7.6
9.9
15.2
13.7
10.2
3.6

11.4
7.3
4.2
8.7
11.5
17.4
15.1
9.9
2.4

1982: Oct
Nov
Dec

0.4
0
-.3

0.2
.0
-.0

0.4
-.2
-.8

0.1
-.6
— 1.4

1983: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June.
July
Aug
Sept
Oct

.2
-.2
.1
.6
.5
.2
.4
.4
.5
.4

.1
0
.6
.4
.3
-.3
— .1
.2
.3
.5

.5
0
-.1
.5
.3
.2
.4
.2
.5
.2

.7
.2
.0
.7
.3
.3
.5
.4
.5
.4

7.0
4.8
6.8

16.2
5.5
7.1
7.2
10.1
10.3
10.6
9.2
4.2

16.6
11.2
9.0
8.1
5.9
16.0
13.6
14.5
9.7

8.7
2.3
4.5
4.2
3.2
5.5
6.8
3.6
1.6

13.3
9.8
8.8
4.3
7.7
18.2
14.7
11.0
1.7

11.5
7.3
4.8
7.2
6.2
7.4
7.5
6.8
1.6

20.6
11.0
2.6
4.9
8.5
52.2
18.9
9.4
-6.5

12.4
9.9
10.1
8.8
8.8
10.1
10.0
12.5
11.0

21.6
11.6
6.9
7.2
8.0
37.4
18.1
11.9
1.3

1.3
.8
.3

0.6
.2
.5

-2.5
-3.7
-.9
2.0
2.5
.3
.3
.7
.7
— .4

.5
.4
.3
.2
.2
.4
.6
.5
.5
.6

11.0
9.1
5.8
6.5
7.7
11.3
13.5
10.4
6.1

11.3

6.4
7.0
5.2
6.5
7.2
9.9
9.4
6.1

Change, month t o month

1
2
3

0.6
.3
.2
.4
.5

.3
.6
.5
.7
.4

1.5
1.2
.7

0.3
-.1
-.3

0.3
i
— .1

-0.2
.3
.3

-0.2
-.3
-.8

0.7
.9
.8

1.5
-1.0
.1
1.1
.2
.2
.3
.5
-.4
1.3

-.2
-.5
-.5
.2
.8
.0
.3
.3
.7
-.1

.3
.5
— .1
.2
.7
.4
.6
.4
0
0

-.6
-1.6
-.0
1.1
1.3
.4
.5
1.0
.8
.6

.1
.9
.7
-.6
-.3
.1
0
.8
1.0
.7

-3.3
-6.7
-1.0
3.9
4.1
.7
.4
1.2
.5
-.5

.8
.8
.5
.5
.4
.5
.6
.5
.4
.4

Includes items not shown separately.
Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981.
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant,

tc.

4

0.7
.2
.0
.8
.3
.2
.5
' .3
.5
.4

0.3
*
— .4

Energy excludes motor oil, coolant, etc. beginning January 1983.

NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.

24



4

3.3
2.1
.5

7.2
5.1
2.3

5.1
4.6
3.9

-.4

1.4
.4
.5

3.8
3.5
3.6
3.9
3.5
2.6
2.4
2.6
2.9
2.9

-1.2

.4
2.1
5.1

.8
1.9

5.4
4.7
4.2
5.3
5.5

2.9
3.4
4.7
5.4
5.1

Data beginning January 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers.
Data beginning January 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received by farmers rose 0.7 percent in November and prices paid by farmers rose 0.6 percent in the month
ended November 15.
INDEX, 1977=100

(RATIO SCALE)

60 I i i i i i 1 i i i i i

INDEX, 1977=100

Mi i i Ii i i ii

(RATIO SCALE)

i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i l i | i | i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i | i l i i i i i I i i i i i i l l i i l i i i | i i i i i i 1 1 i i i i I 60

60
1975

1976

60

1983

1977

J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1977 = 100]

Fxiees paid by

Pri<3es received by farmers
Period

1975
1976
1977

All farm
products

Livestock and
products

r*i-nr\c

138
150
156

139
139

156
156

154
153

142
146
146
145
144
141
137
139
137
135
135

157
158
159
159
160
160
160
160
161
161
162

156
157
157
158
159
159
158
159
159
158
159

98
101

139
133

1982: Nov
Dec

128
127

117
114

1983: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May

128
132
134
136
137
134
131
139
136
r
!34
135

114
118
121
127
129
126
125
139
r
!34
137
136

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982

June
July

Aug
Sept

Oct
Nov
1

Includes items not shown separately.
Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes
and wage rates.
2




Production
items, interest,
taxes, and wage
rates

89
95
100
109
125
139
151
154

105
102
100
105
116
125
134
121

101
102
100
115
132
134

All commodities,
services,
interest, taxes,
and wage rates l

farmer s

100
124
147
144
143
145

89
95
100
108
123

Katio2

Production
items

97
100
108
125
138
148
149

113
107
100
106
107
97
93
86

!48
148

82
81

150
151
152
153
154
154
152
153
154
153
154

82
84
84
86
86
84
82
87
84
r
83
83

91

r

NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes
tave been converted to a 1977 = 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.

25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS
Growth in the monetary aggregates accelerated in October.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS'(RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
2,600
2,400
2,200

2,600
2,400
2,200

2,000

2,000

1,800

1,800

1,600

1,600

1,400

1,400

M2
1,200

1,200

1,000

1,000

800

800

600

600

400

400

I | l I I I Ii ill

200
1975

1976

I I I I I I I I I II
1977

I l I i I I i i l l i

I I I I I I I I II

1980

1979

1978

I i M lIi llli
1982

1981

* SEASON ALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE, SYSTEM

200

1983

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Percent <jhange from ipear or 6
m onths earlier 2

Ml

M2

M3

L

Sum of currency,
demand deposits,
travelers' checks, and
other checkable deposits
(OCD) !

Ml plus overnight RPs
and Eurodollars,
MMMF balances
(general purpose and
broker/dealer),
MMDAs, and savings
and small time deposits

M2 plus large time
deposits, term RPs, and
institution-only MMMF

M3 plus other liquid
assets

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec

291.1
310.4
335.5
363.2
389.0
414.1
440.6
478.2

1,023.0
1,163.5
1,286.4
1,388.5
1,497.5
1,630.3
1,794.9
1,959.5

1,161.7
1,296.3
1,451.8
1,613.5
1,758.4
1,936.7
2,167.9
2,377.6

1,371.9
1,522.4
1,711.0
1,922.9
2,131.8
2,343.6
2,622.0
2,896.8

4.9
6.6
8.1
8.3
7.1
6.5
6.4
8.5

12.6
13.7
10.6
7.9

9.2

9.7

1982: Oct
Nov
Dec

468.7
474.0
478.2

1,929.7
1,945.0
1,959.5

2,352.0
2,370.2
2,377.6

2,866.0
2,882.4
2,896.8

8.8
9.8

1983: Jan
Feb
Mar....
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Octp

482.1
491.1
497.6
496.5
507.4
511.7
515.5
516.7
517.1
517.9

2,010.0
2,050.8
2,069.9
2,074.8
2,096.2
2,114.4
2,126.3
2,136.9
2,145.1
2,161.4

2,403.3
2,430.6
2,447.1
2,453.9
2,476.2
2,498.8
2,510.2
2,528.3
2,543.4
2,561.1

2,930.6
2,960.2
2,987.6
r
3,006.1
r
3,032.2
r
3,060.1

10.6
10.5
10.5
14.2
16.1
16.6
15.6
16.2
16.4
11.9

11.8
11.9
10.7
10.8
10.0

Period

1975:
1976:
1977:
1978:
1979:
1980:
1981:
1982:

1

Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions.
Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months
earlier at an annual rate.
2

26



NOTE.—See page 27 for components.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

M2

Ml

11.2
12.6
14.8
15.4
12.2
14.6
14.5
14.3
10.7
8.0
8.8

7.9
8.9

10.1

8.6
7.4
8.5

M3

9.4

11.6
12.0
11.1
9.0

10.1
11.9

9.9
8.9
9.1

10.5
9.1
8.2
8.0
8.9

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

Dec:
1975......
1976......
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982......
1982:
Get
Nov
Dec
1983:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May.
June
July
Aug.
Sept ......
Oet"

Currency

Demand
deposits *

Other
checkable
deposits
(OCD)

Overnight
repurchase
agreements
(KPs),
net, plus
overnight
Eurodollars

General
purpose
and
broker/
dealer

NSA

NSA

Money market
mutuaIfund
bala ices

Institution
only

NSA

Money
market
deposit
accounts
(MMDAs)

Small
Savings
deposits

NSA

43.2

19.5
27.1
30.1
34.8
37.2
40.3

9.7
13.1
18.4
29.0
41.5
48.0
65.3
80.1

878.0
874.9
859.1

339.6
340.4
333.8

37.7
39.4
40.3

81.1
79.5
80.1

797.4
755.1
733.8
725.7
720.1
722.1
735.1
748.0
757.7
771.0

310.7
297.9
296.2
300.2
299.2
304.1
305.6
311.6
317.9
320.2

40.6
40.8
41.7
42.7
45.3
44.5
42.8
44.8
44.9
43.4

81.1
83.5
86.0
88.7
90.8
91.3

131.3
131.9
132.8

236.0
237.6
239.8

97.0
100.1
101.3

43.9
45.2
44.3

187.6
191.1
182.2

49.3
49.9
47.6

43.2

358.0
366.4
359.3

134.2
135.6
137.0
138.0
139.3
140.3
140.9
141.8
143.0
144.2

239.4
238.7
240.1
238.9
242.5
244.0
245.8
244.5
243.4
242.9

104.5
112.5
116.0
115.0
120.9
122.7
124.2
125.8
126.0
126.0

47.3
48.8
48.7
50.6
55.1
56.0
52.7
52.1
52.7
56.1

166.7
159.6
154.0
146.7
141.1
139.7
138.7
139.2
137.5
137.8

46.1
45.2
43.5
41.0
40.4
39.2
38.6
38.4
39.1
39.9

189.1
277.7
320.5
341.2
356.8
367.3
368.4
366.3
366.9
367.4

335.1
325.7
322.7
321.5
323.1
325.0
323.5
322.1
320.6
318.8

33.4
61.4
150.9
182.2

NSA

129.9
118.2
145.2
194.9
222.2
258.9
302.6
333.8

17.0
26.9
76.6
101.3

0.4
.6
.9
3.1
9.5
14.9
36.0
47.6

2.7
2.4
2.4
6.4

Term
Eurodollars
(net)

338.1
391.0
446.0
521.8
635.9
731.7
828.6
859.1

239.7
253.8
262.0
266.8
236.4
239.8

0.9
2.7
4.2
8.4

Term
repurchase
agreements
(KPs)

453.0
491.6
481.2
423.1
400.7
344.4
359.3

97.5
106.3
116.2
123.2
132.8

214.1
224.4

Large
denomination
time
deposits 2

NSA

5.8
10.6
14.7
20.3
21.2
28.4
36.1
44.3

73.9
80.6
88.6

denomination
time
deposits 2

388.8

1

Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions.
Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than
$100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively.
2

8.4
14.2

q nv
oavings
bonds

Shortterm
Treasury
securities

67.2
71.7
76.4

76.8
80.8
89.7

80.2
79.5
72.3
67.7
67.9

Bankers'
acceptances

Commercial
paper

8.4

48.0
51.7
62.9
79.2
97.0

99.3
128.7
156.9
176.3
217.6

8.8
11.8
21.6
26.7
31.6
40.6
44.9

98.1
104.2
108.8

67.6
67.8
67.9

210.3
214.5
217.6

42.8
43.1
44.9

112.3
107.3
108.8

68.1
68.5
68.8
69.2
69.6
69.8

219.3
219.3
224.5
r
230.5
231.4
r
237.2

45.3
43.2
42.0
41.2
40.8
40.2

113.5
115.1
119.2
122.5
123.4
122.9

Travelers checks are a component of money stock but are not shown here.
NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

NOTE.—See p. 26 for overall measures.

CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Installniient credit ejctended

Installnrlent credit liq uidated

Net change in aml ount

Amount ou standing, en 1 of period,
sea sonally adjus ted

Dutstanding

Period

1975.....
1976
1977
1978

1979
1980
1981
1982
1982: Sept....
Oct
Nov
Dec
1983: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept

Total 2

Automobile

180,083
210,740

52,420
63,743
75,641

257,600
297,668
324,777
306,076
334,508
344,901
28,619
28,650
31,691
30,777

87,981
93,901
83,454
93,240
95,997
7,488
8,041
10,177
9,716

Revolving

Total 2

Automobile

36,956
43,934
87,596
105,125
120,174
128,068
139,829
150,061
12,705
12,614
12,778
12,491

172,675

49,444

189,179
222,138
254,589
286,396
304,628
316,291
331,805
27,363
28,781
29,676
28,359

53,278
60,437
69,245
79,186
82,977
84,745
91,099
7,139
8,111
8,643
8,225

1
Through 1982 calculated as the difference between credit extensions and credit liquidations. Beginning 1983, calculated as change in amount outstanding.
2
Includes "mobile home" and "other," not shown separately.




Revolving

35,616
41,764
81,348
96,090
111,546
126,653
135,362
145,696
12,394
12,533
12,739
11,990

Total2

Automobile

7,408
21,561
35,462
43,079
38,381
1,448
18,217
13,096
1,256
-131
2,015
2,418
2,725
735
2,582
2,271
2,696
4,406
4,840
3,388
2,375

2,976
10,465
15,204
18,736
14,715
477
8,495
4,898
349
-70
1,534
1,491
625
-233
1,221
689
1,313
1,973
2,421
2,521
285

Revolving
1,340
2,170

6,248
9,035
8,628
1,415
4,467
4,365
311
81
39
501
68
-135
1,177
917
514
1,210
821
313
479

Total2

Automobile

169,387
190,725
226,646

57,279
67,798

269,392
307,115
308,137
326,274
339,316
335,180
335,593
336,897
339,316
342,041
342,776
345,358
347,629
350,325
354,731
359,571
362,959
365,334

82,890
101,863
116,523
116,808
125,323
130,235
127,473
127,694
128,824
130,235
130,860
130,627
131,848
132,537
133,850
135,823
138,244
140,765
141,050

Revolving
14,467
16,505
36,427

45,004
53,174
54,650
58,722
62,830
62,120
62,302
62,326
62,830
62,898
62,763
63,940
64,857
65,371
66,581
67,402
67,715
68,194

Note.—Extensions and liquidations not available after December 1982.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

27

BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES
Commercial and industrial loans rose in October after showing no change in September.
PILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)

ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS

800
LOANS AND LEASES

600

600

400

400

INVESTMENT IN OTHER SECURITIES

200
180
160
140

200
180
160
140

120

120

100

100

80

INVESTMENT IN
U.S. TREASURY SECURITIES

80

60

60

40 I i i i M I i i i i i i i i i i I i i i i i i i i i i I i i i i i i i i I i I M i i i i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i I i i i i | i i i i i I i i i i i i i i i i I i i i i i i i i i i I i i i i i I 40
1975
1976
1977
I
1978
1979
1980
I
198\
I
1982
1983
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, AVERAGES OF WEDNESDAY FIGURES
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Deposiitory institutions 3

All commercial ban ki 1
Period

Loans aad leases
Total loans
and
investments

Total2

for changes iii

reserve requirem ents

Commercial
and industrial
loans

U.S. Treasury
securities
82.2
100.8
99.8
93.8
94.5
110.0
111.0
130.9

145.6
148.8
159.3
172.8
191.5
214.4
231.4
239.2

26.38
26.80
28.00
29.44
30.71
32.46
33.75
36.23

26.25
26.74
27.43
28.57
29.24
30.77
33.11
35.60

26.11

Other
securities

Total

Non-

borrowed

1975:
1976:
1977:
1978:
1979:
1980:
1981:
1982:

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec

745.2
804.6
891.5
1,013.5
1,135.9
1,239.6
1,316.3
1,412.0

915.1
973.9
1,042.0

189.6
190.9
210.9
245.9
291.2
326.8
358.0
392.3

1982:

Oct
Nov
Dec

1,397.5
1,398.5
1,412.0

1,038.1
1,036.4
1,042.0

394.8
392.0
392.3

122.3
126.4
130.9

237.2
235.8
239.2

35.37
35.83
36.23

34.89
35.21
35.60

1983:

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct*

1,428.2
1,436.3
1,450.1
,460.6
,474.4
,488.0
,499.9
,513.2
,520.3
,533.1

1,045.0
1,048.7
1,056.3
1,059.5
1,063.3
1,070.6
1,080.9
1,091.0
1,096.3
1,104.2

395.1
394.9
396.2
392.9
392.9
395.0
399.2
402.5
402.6
404.7

139.8
144.5
151.0
157.8
166.1
171.2
172.9
174.4
176.9
182.3

243.3
243.1
242.8
243.4
245.0
246.2
246.1
247.8
247.1
246.6

35.63
36.10
36.80
37.15
37.13
37.61
37.80
37.69
37.72
37.50

35.10
35.52
36.01
36.14
36.18
35.98
36.35
36.15
36.28
36.66

1
2
3

517.4
555.0
632.5
747.0
849.9

Data are averages of Wednesday figures.
Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States.
Data are averages of daily figures.

28



Borrciwings
(millions of dollars,
unad usted)

Reserves adjust*3d

Investonents

Required

Total

Seasonal

636
697

13
12
54
134
82
116
53
33

34.96
35.43
35.73

455
579
697

86
47
33

35.09
35.66
36.37
36.68
36.68
37.13
37.29
37.25
37.22
37.00

500
557
852
993
902

33
39
53
82
98
121
172
198
191
142

127
62

26.52
27.81
29.21
30.38
31.94
33.43
35.73

558
874
1,473
1,617

1,714
1,382
1,573
r
1,441

NOTE.—Beginning Dec. 1981, bank loans and investments and reserve^
reduced because of shifts from U.S. banking offices to International Banking
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

839

have been
(IBFs).

SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL
CORPORATE BUSINESS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Uses

Sources
External
Period
Total

Ci edit market funds

Internal l
Total

Total

Securities
and
mortgages

Loans and
short-term
paper

20.7

36.0
43.6

Discrepancy
(sources less
uses)

assets

-8.0
16.3
36.6
47.7
67.a
38.5
69.7
38.9

52.2
41.2
53.5
62.5
92.0
127.3
98.9
62.7
19.7

0.5
.0
6.0
9.0
16.5
23.8
-1.0
13.1
41.6
57.7

24.8
38.6
39.6
77.8

78.0
51.3
49.4
-23.2

-33.4
-.2
-5.6
-24.4

232.1
279.3
270.4
222.0

242.4
242.2
240.1
200.2

-10.3
37.1
30.3
21.8

70.8
50.5
56.9
52.5

67.6
71.2

5.7
-3.5

1.0
35.2

275.7
316.2

202.4
252.1

73.3
64.1

49.3
54.5

56.7
69.9
30.7
54.5
72.4
80.5
88.2
90.9
92.2
84.1

26.3
38.7
38.2
35.8
32.8
20.9
52.4
22.5
45.2

n
m

302.8
329.9
327.4
274.5

233.5
240.2
244.0
244.3

69.3
89.7
83.4
30.2

102.8
89.9
89.0
54.6

1983: I.
H"

325.0
370.7

250.7
267.8

74.3
102.9

73.3
67.7

1
Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital
consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained
abroad.
2
Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S.

financial

121.5
137.9
109.7
148.3
175.1
201.6
219.4
221.2
261.6
231.2

100.7
104.4
37,2
76.6
96.7
141.8
156.9
143.7
135.2
68.1

IV

Increase in

191.9
190.1
150.9
201.8
237.6
293.6
346.7
320.1
324.3
250.9

91.7
85.6
119.7
134.2
157.4
175.7
188.8
189.5
230.6
240.5

1982: I.....

Other 2

Capital
expenditures 3

44.0
34.5
6.5
22.1
24.3
61.3
68.8
52.8
43.0
-16.0

192.4
190.1
156.9
210.8
254.1
317.5
345.7
333.2
365.8
308.6

1973

1974
1975,
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982.

Total

70.5

3
Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S.
Government.
overnmen.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL
CORPORATIONS
[Billions of dollars, except as noted]

0urrent liabilitie s

Curren . assets
Ind of period
Total

SEC series: 2
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

Cash

U.S.
Government
securities

Notes and
accounts
receivable

492.3
529.6
599.3
697.8
790.7

50.2
53.3
59.0
66.3
71.1

7.7
11.0
10.6
12.8
12.3

206.1
221.1
248.2
288.5

735.4
759.0
827.4
912.7
1,043.7
1,214.8
1,327.0
1,419.3
1,425.4

73.2
82.1
88.2
97.2
105.5
118.0
126.9
131.8
144.0

11.1
19.0
23.5
18.2
17.2
16.7
18.7
17.4
22.4

265.8
272.1
292.9
330.3
388.0
459.0
506.8
530.3
511.0

TV

1,418.0
1,417.2
1,441.8
1,425.4

121.8
124.1
126.9
144.0

16.5
16.5
18.9
22.4

1983: I r
HP

1,436.5
1,464.2

139.7
145.7

25.8
27.5

PTC-PRB series: 3
1974
1975
1978
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981 r
1982 r
1982:

Ir

n rr
mr

1

3

Total

Notes and
accounts
payable

Other
current
liabilities

ratio 1

1.615
1.625
1.595
1.548
1.491

282.0
307.4
332.4
355.5
374.3
407.5
437.8
442.9
447.6

552.9
554.9
562.7
552.8

183.6
187.4
213.0
239.6
286.5
346.5
375.7
417.5
425.0
434.0
433.8
444.9
425.0

431.0
428.5
434.2
447.6

1.622
1.681
1.671
1.638
1.559
1.505
1.492
1.454
1.458
1.437
.433
.431
.458

543.2
551.6

443.1
446.1

450.2
466.5

.456
.468

35.0
43.8
55.8
66.4
71.7

304.9
326.0
375.6
450.9
530.4

211.3

93.6

220.5
282.9
340.3
402.3

105.5
92.7
110.7
128.1

65.9
69.9
80.3
90.1
101.1
116.0
131.8
154.6
172.6
154.7
157.9
165.3
172.6

453.4
451.6
495.1
557.1
669.5
807.3
889.3
976.3
977.8

269.8
264.2
282.1
317.6
383.0
460.8
513.6
558.8
552.8

533.4
531.2
534.2
511.0

319.5
315.9
342.5
376.9
431.8
505.1
542.8
585.1
575.2
591.6
587.6
596.5
575.2

987.0
988.7
1,007.6
977.8

517.9
534.3

573.2
570.5

179.9
186.2

986.3
997.7

322.1

Net
working
capital

187.4
203.6
223.7
246.9
260.3

193.3
200.4
225.7
263.9
313.6

Total current assets divided by total current liabilities.
Based on data from Statistics of Income, Department of the Treasury.
Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations, Federal Trade Commission and Department of Commerce.
2

Other
current
assets

Inventories

See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details regarding the series.
Series revised beginning 1981.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce, Federal
Trade Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission.

NOTE.—SEC series not available after 1974.




29

INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS
Interest rates rose in November.
PERCENT PER ANNUM

1975

1983

1976

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCEr SEE TABLE BELOW

[Percent per annum]

U.S.I reasury security yields
Period

3-month bills l

Constant nlaturities
3-year

1977
1978

1979
1980
1981
1982

2

10-year

High-grade
municipal
bonds
(Standard &
Poor's) 3

Prime
commercial
paper,
6 months4
4

Discount rate
(N.Y. F.K.
Bank) 5

9.97
9.91
9.45
9.48
9.16
8.96
9.03
9.51
9.46
9.72
9.57
9.64

11.68
11.83
11.79
12.01
11.73
11.51
11.46
11.74
12.15
12.51
12.37
12.25
12.42

8.72
8.50
8.15
8.39
8.48
8.48
8.31
9.03
9.36
9.68
9.28
8.98
9.09

9.50-9.00
9.00-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50

9.78
9.74
9.79
9.78

12.42
12.47
12.42
12.36

9.02
9.15
9.12
9.09

8.50-8.50 11.00-11.00
8.50-8.50 11.00-11.00
8.50-8.50 11.00-11.00
8.50-8.50 11.00-11.00

7.42
8.41
9.44
11.46
13.91
13.00

5.56
5.90
6.39
8.51
11.23
11.57

8.042
8.013
7.810
8.130
8.304
8.252
8.19
8.82
9.12
9.39
9.05
8.71
8.71

9.98
9.88
9.64
9.91
9.84
9.76
9.66
10.32
10.90
11.30
11.07
10.87
10.96

10.55
10.54
10.46
10.72
10.51
10.40
10.38
10.85
11.38
11.85
11.65
11.54
11.69

8.41
8.83
8.78
8.81
8.90

11.01
11.04
10.96
10.88

11.75
11.80
11.70
11.59

8.02
8.73

4

High-low
1982: Nov
Dec
1983: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov p
Week ended:
1983: Nov 5
12
19
26
Dee 3

1
Rate on new issues within period; bank-discount basis,
2
Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department.
3
Weekly data are Wednesday figures.
4
Bank-discount basis. Prior to November 1, 1979, data are for 4-6 months paper.
5
Average effective rate for year; high and low rate for month and week.

30



6.83
9.06
12.67
15.27
18.87
14.86

9.63
11.94
14.17
13.79

6.69
8.29
9.72
11.55
14.44
12.92

5.46
7.46
10.28
11.77
13.41
11.02

Prime rate
charged by
banks 5

5.61
7.99
10.91
12.29
14.76
11.89

7.221
10.041
11.506
14.077
10.686

5.265

Corporate
Aaa bonds
(Moody's)

New-home
mortgage
yields
(FHLBB) 6

9.02

9.56
10.78
12.66
14.70
15.14

High-low
12.00-11.50
11.50-11.50
11.50-11.00
11.00-10.50
10.50-10.50
10.50-10.50
10.50-10.50
10.50-10.50
10.50-10.50
11.00-10.50
11.00-11.00
11.00-11.00
11.00-11.00

13.81
13.69
13.49
13.16
13.41
12.42
12.67
12.36
12.50
12.38
r
12.54
12.25

6
Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as
well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Rates beginning
January 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates.

Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS
Stock prices fell in November.
INDEX, DEC 31,1965=50
1001

INDEX, DEC. 31,1965=50
1100

90

90

80

80

70

70
COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX
,
(NYSE)-

60

60

50

50

40

40

1975

1978

1979

1981

1980

1982

1983

PERCENT
20

PERCENT
20
EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS
(S&P)

15

15

10

1983

1975
SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Common st ock yields
(perce nt) 5

Co mmon stock price
He?v York Stock Ext hange indexes (E>ec. 31, 1965=5 3)

Period

Composite

1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1982: Oct
Nov
.
Dec
1983: Jan...
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov P
Week ended:
1983: Nov 5
12
19
26
1
Average
2
Includes
3
Includes
4
Includes
5

.

53.69
53.70
58.32
68.10
74.02
68.93
76.10
79.75
80.30
83.25
84.74
87.50
90.61
94.61
96.43
96.74
93.96
96.70
96.78
95.36
94.35
94.36
95.76
96.30

Industrial

Transportation

Standard &

Dow-Jones
industrial
Utility

Finance

average

3

64.76
78.70
85.44
78.18
86.67
90.76
92.00
95.37
97.26
100.61
104.46
109.43
112.52
113.21
109.50
112.76
112.87
110.77

43.50
47.34
60.61
72.61
60.41
66.64
71.92
73.40
75.65
79.44
83.28
85.26
89.07
92.22
92.91
88.06
94.56
95.41
97.68

40.92
39.22
38.20
37.35
38.91
39.75
42.67
43.46
42.93
45.59
45.92
45.89
46.22
47.62
46,76
46.61
46.94
48.16
48.73
48.50

55.25
56.65
61.42
64.25
73.52
71.99
80.59
88.66
86.22
85.66
86.57
93.22
99.07
102.45
101.22
99.60
95.76
97.00
94.79
94.48

820.23
844.40
891.41
932.92
884.36
988.71
1,027.76
1,033.08
1,064.29
1,087.43
1,129.58
1,168.43
1,212.86
1,221.47
1,213.93
1,189.21
1,237.04
1,252.20
1,250.01

109.55
109.60
111.37
111.75

94.68
95.63
98.00
100.76

48.60
48.30
48.28
48.85

92.40
92.82
95.19
96.11

1,227.44
1,229.67
1,251.81
1,274.42

57.86
58.23

41.09

of daily closing prices.
all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSI.
30 stocks.
500 stocks.
Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-




2

894.63

Poor's
composite
index (194143 = 10)4
98.20
96.02
103.01

118.78
128.05
119.71
132.66
138.10
139.37
144.27
146.80
151.88
157.71
164.10
166.39
166.96
162.42
167.16
167.65
165.23
163.58
163.67
165.85
166.76

Dividendprice ratio

4.62

5.28
5.47
5.26
5.20
5.81
5.12
4.92
4.93
4.79
4.74
4.59
4.44
4.27
4.26
4.21
4.35
4.24
4.25

Earningsprice ratio

10.79
12.03
13.46

12.66
11.96
11.60
8.99
8.12
7.50

4.33
4.35
4.31
4.29

price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.
NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

31

FEDERAL FINANCE
FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT
In the first month of fiscal year 1984, there was a budget deficit of $25.1 billion, compared to a budget deficit of
$26.2 billion a year earlier.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
900

900

BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS

800

800

700

700

600

600

500

500

400

400

300

300

BUDGET SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-)

-100

-100

-200

-200
1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

FISCAL YEARS
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

[Billions of dollars]

Period

Fiscal year or period:
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
Transition quarter
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983 p
1984 (estimates):
First Concurrent Resolution, June 23, 1983 1....
Mid-Session Review, July 1983 2
First month:
Fiscal year 1983
Fiscal year 1984
1

Budget
receipts

Budget
outlays

32



Off-budget
surplus or
deficit (— )

Total
surplus or
deficit (— )

Federal debt (end
Gross

of period)

Held by the
public

-1.8
-8.7
-10.4
-12.5
-14.2
21.0
-17.3
-12.4

-23.4
-14.9
-6.1
-53.2
73.7
-14.7
53.6
-59.2
40.2
-73.8
-78.9
127.9
-207.7

437.3
468.4
486.2
544.1
631.9
646.4
709.1
780.4
833.8
914.3
1,003.9
1,147.0
1,381.9

343.0
346.1
396.9
480.3
498.3
551.8
610.9
644.6
715.1
794.4
929.4
1,141.8

-169.9
-179.7

14.0

-193.7

1,614.6
1,611.9

1,339.4

-26.2
-25.1

-.3
1.4

-26.5
-23.6

1,147.7
1,389.2

935.6
1,153.5

207.3
230.8
263.2
279.1
298.1
81.2
355.6
399.6
463.3
517.1
599.3
617.8
600.6

230.7
245.6
267.9
324.2
364.5
94.2
400.5
448.4
491.0
576.7
657.2
728.4
795.9

23.4
-14.8
-4.7
-45.2
-66.4
-13.0
-44.9
48.8
-27.7
-59.6
-57.9
-110.6
-195.4

679.6
668.4

849.5
848.1

40.5
45.2

66.7
70.2

First Concurrent Resolution, June 23, 1983;figuresexclude reserve fund items.
Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1984 Budget, Office of Management and Budget,
July 25, 1983.
2

Budget
surplus or
deficit (— )

-0.1
-1.4
-8.1
-7.3

323.8

Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget, except as noted.

FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND
OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
In the first month of fiscal year 1984, budget receipts were $4.7 billion higher than a year earlier and budget
outlays were $3.5 billion higher.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BUDGET RECEIPTS

300

300
INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES

r

200

200

OTHER RECEIPTS

100

100
CORPORATION INCOME TAXES

I

I

I

BUDGET OUTLAYS

600

600

500

500
NONDEFENSE

^

400

400

300

300

200

200

100

100
1975

1976

1977

1979
1980
FISCAL YEARS

1978

1982

1981

1984

1983

COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

[Billions of dollars]
Budget outlays

Budget rejeeipts
Nation al defense
Period

Total

Fiscal year or period:
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
Transition quarter
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983 p
1984 (estimates) l
First month:
Fiscal Year 1983
Fiscal Year 1984

Individual
income
taxes

Corporation
income
taxes

Other

Total

Department of
Defense,
military

207.3
230.8
263.2
279.1
298.1
81.2
355.6
399.6
463.3
517.1
599.3
617.8
600.6
668.4

94.7

32.2

103.2
119.0
122.4
131.6
38.8
157.6
181.0
217.8
244.1
285.9
297.7
288.9
296.0

36.2
38.6
40.6
41.4
8.5
54.9
60.0
65.7
64.6
61.1
49.2
37.0
64.1

80.4
91.4
105.7
116.1
125.0
34.0
143.0
158.6
179.8
208.4
252.2
270.8
274.6
308.3

230.7
245.6
267.9
324.2
364.5
94.2
400.5
448.4
491.0
576.7
657.2
728.4
795.9
848.1

76.6
74.5
77.8
85.6
89.4
22.3
97.5
105.2
117.7
135.9
159.8
187.4
210.5
242.3

75.1
73.2
77.6
84.9
87.9
21.9
95.6
103.0
115.0
132.8
156.1
182.9
205.0
235.7

40.5
45.2

20.8
23,2

-.5
.5

20.2
21.5

66.7
70.2

16.3
17.4

15.9
16.9

1
Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1984 Budget, Office of Management and Budget,
July 25, 1983.




Total

International
affairs

Health and
income
security

Net
interest

Other

5.7
6.9
5.6
2.2
4.8
5.9
6.1
10.7
11.1
10.0
8.9
13.5

90.4
104.8
134.3
158.9
41.0
174.5
187.4
207.1
248.3
291.1
322.4
361.4
365.7

15.5
17.3
21.4
23.2
26.7
6.9
29.9
35.4
42.6
52.5
68.7
84.7
87.0
103.5

53.9
59.3
58.2
74.2
83.9
21.8
93.8
114.4
117.5
129.3
126.5
123.9
128.2
123.1

1.0
1.1

28.6
28.9

7.5
7.5

13.3
15.3

4.7
4.1

80.0

Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

33

FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS
In the third quarter, according to preliminary estimates, Federal receipts fell $7.0 billion (annual rate) and
expenditures rose $15.4 billion, yielding a deficit of $188.5 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
900

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
900

800

800

700

700

600

600

1

SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-)

-100.

-200

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

CALENDAR YEARS

-100
-200

1983

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Federal (Government expenditur 3S

Federal Governmeiit receipts

Period
Total

Fiscal year:
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
Calendar year:
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1981: HI
IV
1982: I

n

HI.
IV

1983: I
II
Ill r.

Personal
tax and
nontax
receipts

Corporate
profits
tax
accruals

Indirect
business
tax and
nontax
accruals

27.2
29.1
35.5

186.5
222.6
250.4
289.3
310.4

67.3

480.8
525.9
610.3
627.8

431.6
493.6
540.9
627.0
617.4
638.8
629.2
619.5
622.2
615.2
612.6

194.9
230.6
257.7
298.6
304.7
308.6
303.8
306.5
308.5
300.6
303.0

623.3
652.6
645.6

297.7
304.2
286.9

414.3

Contributions for
social
insurance

Total

Purchases
of goods
and
services

Transfer
payments

Net
interest
paid

Subsidies
less
current
surplus of
Government
enterprises

83.4

33.5
40.6
50.7
67.7
82.2

9.7
9.9
10.4
12.5
13.2

Grantsin-aid to
State
and
local
governments

450.4
495.6
576.5
668.1
740.0

150.4
164.1
189.3
218.5
251.0

182.2
201.8
239.4

53.6
50.3

133.3
153.1
170.0
196.9
215.7

71.3
74.2
70.3
67.5
46.5
68.2
61.4
47.6
48.4
47.8
42.1

28.1
29.4
39.0
56.4
48.3
55.8
55.0
49.5
47.7
47.9
48.3

137.2
159.5
173.9
204.5
217.9
206.2
209.1
215.8
217.6
218.9
219.3

461.0
509.7
602.1
689.2
764.4
701.2
725.0
728.0
735.4
773.5
820.9

153.6
168.3
197.0
229.2
258.7
232.4
248.5
249.7
244.1
261.7
279.2

185.6
209.2
251.5
286.6
321.1
295.3
300.1
302.5
311.2
325.9
344.8

77.3
80.5
88.7
87.9
83.9
86.4
84.2
82.5
85.1
83.0
85.0

35.2
42.4
53.4
73.2
84.9
75.2
79.0
79.7
82.3
88.6
89.1

9.5
9.2
11.5
12.4
15.8
12.3
13.2
13.4
12.7
14.2
22.8

48.6
59.8
66.8

48.6
56.0
55.6

228.5
232.6
236.2

806.6
818.7
834.1

273.5
273.7
278.9

340.3
347.0
343.6

85.8
86.7
87.2

88.4
91.8
100.7

18.6
18.2
23.3

76.1
69.9
70.5
51.3

279.3
310.2

74.7
79.1
86.7
90.1

Less1
Wage
accruals
less
disbursements

or deficit
national
income
and
product
accounts

0.0
-.0
.0
.1
— .0

-36.1
-14.8
-50.7
-57.8
-112.2

.0
-.0
.0
.1
-.0

-29.5
-16.1
-61.2
-62.2
-147.1
-62.4
-95.8
-108.5
-113.2
-158.3
-208.2

4

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury,
and Office of Management and Budget.

34



.3
.0
-.1
.0
.0
.0
.0

-1.3
-.4

-183.3
-166.1
-188.5

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
[1967 = 100]

Indu strial prod action (seaisonally adju sted)
Period

1975
1976

Japan

France

Germany

140.3 163.9
149.0 182.0
189.7
152.7
157.8 201.1
215.3
167.6
165.1 225.2
166.6 227.5
148.8 228.4
228.6
142.6
141.8 226.6
149.3 227.3
149.2
225.9
149.9
231.5
151.6 230.6
153.3 231.1
r
156.7 233.3
r
158.2 234.0
158.8 r241.2
241.9

139
149
152
154
161
160
157
154
156
155
156
156
155
156
159
157
160
160

137.1

Canada

117.8

1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982 p
1982: Nov
Dec
1983: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Get*
1

United
States

130.5
138,2
146.1
152.5
147.0
151.0
138.6
134.9
135.2
137.4
138.1
140.0
142.6
144.4
146.4
r
149.7
r
151.7
r
153.6
154.8

149.1
152.0
154.1
161.8
162.a
159.9
r
156.2
152
151
154
154
157
155
157
r
!60
r
!57
157

Consume r prices (iinadjusted)
United
Kingdom

Italy
127.6
143.5
145.1

147.9
157.6
166.5
162.7
159.1
152.0
150.0
150.0
148.9
148.2
141.5
148.5
145.1
146.9
r
134.9
150.4

114.3
117.4
123.2
127.4
r
132.4
123.7
118.8
r
121.4
r
120.1
r
122.6
r
123.1
r
123.9
r
122.4
r
123.2
r
124.4
r
122.2
124.4
125.2

Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers.

Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, International Trade Adminis-

United
States *

Canada

161.2
170.5
181.5
195.4
217.4
246.8
272.4
289.1
293.6
292.4
293.1
293.2
293.4
295.5
297.1
298.1
299.3
300.3
301.8
302.6

160.1
172.1
185.9
202.5
221.0
243.5
273.9
303.4
313.3
313.4
312.5
313.9
317.1
317.1
317.9
321.5
322.9
324.5
324.5

Japan

Prance

Germany

205.8
224.9
243.0
252.3
261.3
282.2
296.2
304.1
306.6
306.0
306.6
305.5
307.5
308.6
312.0
309.7
308.3
307.4
311.4

178.9
196.1
214.5
233.9
259.1
294.2
332.7
373.1
383.2
386.4
390.1
392.9
396.5
401.8
404.5
406.9
410.4
412.8
416.0

144.2
150.4
155.9
160.2
166.8
175.9
186.3
196.2
198.9
199.4
199.8
200.0
199.8
200.3
201.1
201.8
202.6
203.2
203.6

Italy
186.8
218.1
255.2
286.2
328.5
398.0
472.4
549.4
590.3
594.4
602.7
610.5
616.0
622.2
628.2
632.2
638.5
641.1
649.4
660.4

United
Kingdom

216.5
252.4
292.4
316.6
359.0
423.6
473.9
514.7
523.9
522.9
523.5
525.8
526.7
534.1
536.4
537.7
540.6
543.0
545.4
547.3

tration, Office of Trade Investment and Analysis, Trade Performance Division, in International
Economic Indicators.

U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Merc handise exports1
Period

Total
domestic
foreign
exports

Total2

Pood,
beverages, and
tobacco

Merchandise trade balance

Merc landise imp orts
Gen eral import s 3

Domestic exports
Crude
materials and
fuels

Manu
factured
goods

Pood,
beverages, and
tobacco

Total 2

Crude
materials and
fuels

Exports
/foci
less
imports
(customs
value)

Exports
(f.a.s.)
less
imports
(f.a.s.)

Exports
(f.a.s.)
less
imports
(c.i.f.)

762
688
-2,430
-2,590
-2,300
-2,020

148
-1,440
-3,265
-3,530
-3,364
-3,030

Manu
factured
goods

Total
(c.i.f.
value)

4,257
5,398
6,379
8,360
9,352
10,427

8,823
11,042
13,368
15,504
18,519
21,415

7,739
6,200
5,917
6,727
5,785
6,158

11,873
12,002
12,304
11,903
10,978
10,988

22,779
21,240
21,518
21,932
19,737
20,002

-2,275
-2,647
-3,261
-4,335
-3,041
-2,808

-3,306
-3,558
-4,198
-5,261
-3,885
-3,655

5,911
4,413
4,655
4,511
5,845
5,562
6,014
6,577
6,445

11,981
12,561
12,672
12,856
13,351
13,249
13,842
13,913
13,377

20,962
19,906
20,381
20,675
22,473
21,964
22,988
23,817
23,194
25,917

-2,628
-2,689
-2,774
-3,697
-5,948
-4,016
5,321
-6,152
-4,788

-3,569
-3,580
-3,630
-4,601
-6,907
-4,956
-6,359
7,187
-5,807
-8,966

I\a.s. vahu3

Monthly average:
1975*
1976*
1977*
1978*
1979*...
1980

8,971
9,602
10,103
11,973
15,155
18,386

8,847
9,462
9,919
11,762
14,886
18,043

1,399
1,436
1,330
1,717
2,049
2,534

1,266
1,341
1,548
1,746
2,352
2,810

5,913
6,437
6,679
7,873
9,716
11,991

8,209
10,290
12,533
14,563
17,455
20,406

19,473
17,683
17,320
16,671
15,852
16,347

19,075
17,256
16,584
16,284
15,476
15,913

2,767
2,248
1,926
2,128
2,051
1,966

2,752
2,793
2,751
2,688
2,440
2,420

12,857
11,643
11,331
10,942
10,484
10,648

21,748
20,329
20,581
21,006
18,892
19,154

17,393
16,326
16,752
16,074
15,566
17,008
16,629
16,630
17,387
16,951

17,007
15,984
16,335
15,722
15,186
16,652
16,300
16,243
17,022
16,499

2,312
2,224
2,307
2,079
2,010
2,194
2,114
2,086
2,337
2,418

2,760
2,443
2,375
2,549
2,279
2,377
2,382
2,781
2,756
2,289

11,263
10,743
11,062
10,545
10,331
11,560
11,125
10,855
11,189
11,249

20,021
19,015
19,525
19,771
21,514
21,024
21,950
22,782
22,175

827
991
1,186
1,312
1,478
1,546

2,716
3,457
4,463
4,325
5,949
7,831

Customs value

1981
1982
1982: Sept
Get
Nov
Dee
1983: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Get

1
Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginning
January 1978.
2
Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.
3
Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.
NOTE.—Imports on c.Lf. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods.




,529
,485
,701
,686
,499
,414
,582
,530
,479
,612
,652
1,456
1,560
1,551
1,587

Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Islands exports are reflected in the figures for domestic and foreign exports combined and trade balance.
*Data for 1975-79 for domestic and foreign exports combined, total general imports, and trade
balance include trade of the Virgin Islands.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

35

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
In the third quarter, the merchandise trade deficit rose to $17.9 billion from $14.7 billion in the second quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

-5

-10

-15

1983

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (•+•), debits (—)]
Merchandise

Imvestment inconie 3

12

Net
Period

Exports

Imports

98,306
107,088
114,745
120,816
142,054
184,473
224,237
237,019
211,217

-103,811

-98,185
-124,228
-151,907
-176,020
-212,028
-249,781
-265,086
-247,606

1981: HI
IY

57,812
58,383

1982: I

1974

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982

n
m
IV

1983: I
HPp

m

Net
balance

Net

Net

military
transactions

travel and
transportation
receipts

-1,653
-746
559
1,528
621
-1,778
-2,286
-1,355
179

3,184
-2,792

Other
services,
net 3

Balance
on goods
and
services 1

Remittances,
pensions,
and other
unilateral
transfers 1

Balance
on
current
account

Receipts

Payments

-5,505
8,903
-9,483
-31,091
-33,966
-27,555
-25,544
-28,067
36,389

27,587
25,351
29,286
32,179
42,245
64,132
72,445
86,243
84,146

- 12,084
-12,564

-13,311
14,217
-21,680
-32,914
-42,875
-52,760
-56,842

15,503
12,787
15,975
17,962
20,565
31,218
29,570
33,483
27,304

-66,214
-66,224

8,402
-7,841

22,043
21,801

-13,888
-12,892

8,155
8,909

179
-515

-184
-30

2,053
1,988

1,801
2,571

-1,884
-1,986

-83
585

55,636
54,996
52,241
48,344

-61,739
-60,850
-65,319
-59,698

6,103
-5,854
-13,078
-11,354

20,761
22,316
21,569
19,499

-13,824
-14,779
-14,748
-13,491

6,937
7,537
6,821
6,008

-51
201
54
-26

-208
-561
-557
-769

2,050
1,914
1,906
1,951

2,625
3,236
-4,854
-4,190

-2,061
-1,802
-1,742
-2,431

564
1,434
-6,596
-6,621

49,506
48,913
50,763

-58,316
-63,574
-68,657

-8,810
-14,661
17,894

17,697
19,190

12,608
-13,257

5,089
5,933

516
201

-935
-1,445

2,114
2,098

-2,026
-7,874

-1,561
-1,838

-3,587
-9,712

1

Excludes military grants.
2
Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage.
3
Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the

36



-2,558
-3,565
-3,573
-2,935
-1,434
-598
-2,095

9,147
3,986
22,749
4,598
9,205
4,711
5,272 -9,894
6,013 -10,340
4,686
5,735
7,477
7,172
11,523
8,060
7,822 -3,177

1,962
-7,186
18,136
-4,613
4,207
-4,998
-4,617 -14,511
-5,106 -15,446
-964
-5,649
421
-7,056
4,592
-6,931
-8,034 -11,211

United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks decreased $3.5 billion in the second quarter
compared to an increase of $15.9 billion in the first quarter. Liabilities to foreigners and international financial
institutions reported by U.S. banks increased $4.1 billion in the second quarter, compared with a $13.5 billion
increase in the first quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
60

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
60

-20

-20

-40

-40

-60

-60

1975
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
U.S. assets abroad, net

Foreign assets hi the tI.S., net
[increase /capital inflowr ( + )] 2

tmcrease/capitid outflow (— ) 1
Period
Total

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982

U.S.
official
reserve
assets 1 z

Other U.S.
Government
assets

Total

Foreign
' official
assets

366
33,643
T- 3,474 -35,380
-4,214 -44,498
3,693 -30,717
-4,660 -57,202
-3,746 -59,453
-5,140 -72,757
-5,078 -100,348
-5,732 -107,348

34,241
15,670
36,518
51,319
64,036
38,752
54,922
80,678
87,866

10,546
7,027
17,693
36,816
33,678
-13,665
15,566
5,430
3,172

23,696
8,643
18,826
14,503
30,358
52,416
39,356
75,248
84,694

U.S.
private
assets

Other
foreign
assets

Statistical discrepancy
Allocations
of special
drawing
rights
(SDKs)

Total (sum
of the items
with sign
reversed)

Of which:
Seasonal
adjustment
discrepancy

U.S. official
assets, net *
(unadjusted,
end of
period)

34,745
-39,703
-51,269
-34,785
-61,130
-64,331
-86,052
-110,601
-118,045

-1,467
849

1981: m
IV

-17,279
-47,817

_4
262

-1,274
-973

16,001
-47,106

16,731
41,551

-5,880
8,792

22,611
32,760

632
5,680

-1,145
1,350

29,715
30,074

1982: I

-31,456
-40,934
-26,099
-19,553

1,089
-1,132
-794
-1,950

-807
-1,489
-2,502
-934

-29,560
-38,313
-22,803
-16,670

27,124
31,612
17,613
11,517

-3,061
1,930
2,642
1,661

30,185
29,682
14,972
9,855

3,768
7,887
15,082
14,657

-729

881
-1,190
1,042

29,944
30,671
30,993
33,958

-21,699
-1,369

-787
16

-1,053
-1,126

-19,859
-259

16,452
10,703

49
2,686

16,403
8,016

8,833
379

212
801

34,261
33,876

n

HI
IV

1983: I

n *.....

-2,558
-375
732
-1,133
8,155
-5,175
-4,965

1
Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDRs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve
position in the IMP.
2
Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.




1,139
1,152
1,093

15,883

-1,458
5,897
10,544
-2,023
12,540
25,404

16,226
18,747
19,312
18,650
18,956
26,756
30,074
33,958

29,556
24,238
41,390

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the
Treasury.

37

Contents
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING

pa«e

Gross National Product
Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars
Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product
Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures
Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits
National Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Sources of Personal Income
Disposition of Personal Income
Farm Income
Corporate Profits
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment—Nonfarm Business

1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

'.

'.

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
Status of the Labor Force
Selected Unemployment Rates
Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector

11
12
13
14
15
15
16

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures
New Construction
New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates
Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade
Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

,

17
18
19
19
20
21

PRICES
Producer Prices
Consumer Prices
Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods
Changes in Consumer Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers

22
23
24
24
25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets
Components of Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets
Consumer Installment Credit
Bank Loans and Investments, and Reserves
Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business
Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations
Interest Rates and Bond Yields
Common Stock Prices and Yields

26
27
27
28
29
29
30
31

FEDERAL FINANCE
Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt
Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function
Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis

32
33
34

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries
U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports
U.S. International Transactions
General Notes
Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.
Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.
Symbols used:
p
Preliminary.
r
Revised.
c
Corrected.
... Not available (also, not applicable).
For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, B.C. 20402. Price $4.25 (single copy) ($5.35 foreign).
Subscription price: $25.00 per year; $31.25 for foreign mailing.

38



O

35
35
36