Full text of Economic Indicators : November 1949

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LSI session

Economic Indicator;
Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report




by the Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1949

JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT
(Created pursoaot to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming, Chairman
EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey, Vice Chairman
FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania

WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas

JOHN J. SPARKMAN, Alabama

WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio

PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois

FRANK BUCHANAN, Pennsylvania

ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio

JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan

RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont

ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania

ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah

CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts

THEODOEE J. KEEPS, Staff Director
GROVER W. ENSLEY, Associate Staff Director
JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk

[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sx CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [S. J. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Committee on the Economic
Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one
copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the
House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint
Committee on the Economic Report; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository
libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.

To the Members of Congress:

From the time the Joint Committee on the Economic Report was established its members realized that one of its
basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture of current economic trends and developments.
Fortunately, the joint committee found that Economic Indicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiled monthly
by the Council of Economic Advisers, admirably filled this need. While this material was prepared originally for the
use of the President, the Council, and other officials in the executive offices, the Council made it available to the joint
committee.
Other Members of Congress also expressed an interest in being able to obtain a quick picture of current economic
facts without having to go through voluminous and specialized documents. In addition businessmen, farm leaders,
labor organizations, and representatives of the press and radio indicated their desire for this information.
Accordingly, the joint committee provided the Congress and the public with a limited number of copies of
Economic Indicators as a committee print pending final action on authorizing the publication on a more permanent basis.
As is indicated above such legislation has now been passed and the committee will issue the report on a regular monthly
basis.
Comments or suggestions with respect to possible improvements in this presentation will always be welcome.




Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report.

Letter o£ Transmittal
Hon. JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Chairman,
Joint Committee on the Economic Report,
United States Congress, Washington, D. C.

DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the
Joint Committee on the Economic Report in making Economic Indicators available to the
Congress as a whole and to the general public, in accordance with Public Law 120, Eightyfirst Congress.
In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has found
it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts showing
current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a better position
to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the improvement
and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services.
In this undertaking the Council has the full cooperation of the several agencies of the
Federal Government that collect statistical material. In many cases these agencies supply
advance estimates for use in Economic Indicators. While the charts are drawn through the
courtesy of the Graphics Unit in the Office of the Secretary of Commerce, the Council takes
complete responsibility for the graphic presentation.
This material has proven useful to the President, the Council, the executive departments, and the Congress. Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and
consumer organizations with whom we regularly consult.
We believe that the Congress is performing a service of real value by making this
material available.
Sincerely yours.




Acting Chairman.
/
(

m

Contents
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET

Page

The Nation's Economic Budget

1

PRICES
Consumers1 Prices
Wholesale Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
Stock Prices

,

2
3
4
5

EMPLOYMENT
Labor Force
Nonagricultural Employment—Selected Industries
Average Weekly Hours—Selected Industries
Work Stoppages

6
7
8
9

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production
Weekly Production—Selected Indicators
Production of Selected Durable Manufactures
Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures
New Construction
New Housing Starts
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
New Corporate Security Issues
Inventories and Sales
Merchandise Exports and Imports

10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

PURCHASING POWER
National Income
Corporate Profits
Personal Income
Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving
Per Capita Income
Average Hourly Earnings—Selected Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Selected Industries
Farm Income
,
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Consumer Credit

20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29

MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
Bank Loans and Investments
Money Supply
Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public

IV




30
31
32

NJiTIOH'S
Economic a c t i v i t y changed little between the 2nd and 3rd quarters, inventories were liquidated at a
less rapid rate, while other business investment remained at about the same level. Consumer income
and expenditures dropped moderately.
1 9 4 9 , 2 n d Quarter
TOTAL

EXCESS OF
EXPENDITURES (-), RECEIPTS (

(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)^

(Gross National Product)

BUSINESS

EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
INTERNATIONAL
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
GOVERNMENT

(Federal, state and local)
CASH
DEFICIT

1949,
TOTAL

3rd

Quarter

(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

(Gross National Product)

CONSUMER
SAVING

BUSINESS
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
INTERNATIONAL
EXCESS OF
RECEIPTS
GOVERNMtNT

( Federal, state and local)
CASH
DEFICIT
B Transfer payments^

ANNUAL R A T E S , S E A S O N A L L Y ADJUSTED.

SOURCE:

SEE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PREiiC'iNT, JULY 1949, APPENDIX




A.

PRICES
CONSUMERS' PRICES
Consumers' prices increased again in September, returning to the June level. All retail prices, except
apparel, rose with the largest increases in prices of food and fuel and electricity.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

120

100

1940

1941

1942

1943

1944

1945

1946

1947

1948

1949

•ALSO INCLUDES HOUSEFURNISHINGS, FUEL, ELECTRICITY, REFRIGERATION, AND MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES, NOT SHOWN ON CHART.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

[1935-39=100]
Period
1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 month Iv average
1948 monthly average
1948: September
October
November ~
December
1949: January
February
March
April
May__
June
July _
August
September-

All items

___

99. 4
100. 2
105. 2
116. 5
123. 6
125. 5
128. 4
139. 3
159. 2
171. 2
174. 5
173. 6
172. 2
171. 4
170. 9
169. 0
169. 5
169. 7
169. 2
169. 6
168. 5
168. 8
169. 6

Food
95. 2
96. 6
105. 5
123. 9
138. 0
136. 1
139. 1
159. 6
193. 8
210. 2
215. 2
211. 5
207. 5
205. 0
204. 8
199. 7
201. 6
202. 8
202. 4
204. 3
201. 7
202. 6
204. 2

NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities.
Source: Department of Labor.



Apparel
100. 5
101. 7
106. 3
124. 2
129. 7
138 8
145. 9
160. 2
185. 8
198 0
201. 0
201. 6
201. 4
200. 4
196. 5
195. 1
193. 9
192. 5
191. 3
190. 3
188. 5
187. 4
187. 2

Rent
104. 3
104. 6
106. 2
108. 5
108. 0
108 2
108. 3
108 6
111. 2
117. 4
118 5
118. 7
118 8
119. 5
119. 7
119. 9
120. 1
120. 3
120. 4
120. 6
120. 7
120. 8
121. 2

Fuel, electricity, and
refrigeration

House furnishings

99. 0
99. 7
102. 2
105. 4
107. 7
109. 8
110. 3
112. 4
121. 1
133. 9
137. 3
137. 8
137. 9
137. 8
138. 2
138. 8
138. 9
137. 4
135. 4
135. 6
135. 6
135. 8
137. 0

101. 3
100. 5
107. 3
122. 2
125. 6
136. 4
145. 8
159. 2
184. 4
195. 8
198. 1
198. 8
198. 7
198. 6
196. 5
195. 6
193. 8
191. 9
189. 5
187. 3
186. 8
184. 8
185. 6

Miscellaneous
100. 7
101. 1
104. 0
110. 9
115. 8
121. 3
124. 1
128. 8
139. 9
149. 9
152. 7
153. 7
153. 9
154. 0
154. 1
154. 1
154. 4
154. 6
154. 5
154. 2
154. 3
154. 8
155. 2

Wholesale prices showed little net change from the end of September to the end of October. Declines in
tarm end industrial prices were offset by increases in food prices.
PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE

200

H

180

-"i

160 --*/=-%—

120

1940

SOURCE:

1941

1942

DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

[1926=100]

1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1946 monthly average
June
__
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948- September
October
>_
__
November
December
1949: January
February
March
April
May
June
Julv
August
September
_
October l
Week ended:
September 27 __ >
October
4
11




_ __

__
___

_
_

_ _ _ _ _

__

__

_ _ _ _ _

_ __

18

25 __ __
November 12
1

Estimate based on change in weekly index.
Data became available after chart was prepared.
Source: Department of Labor.

2

87 3
98. 8
121 1
112. 9
152. 1
165. 1
168 9
165. 4
164 0
162. 4
160 6
158 1
158 4
156 9
155 7
154 5
153 5
152 9
153 7
152 4

82 4
105 9
148 9
140. 1
181 2
188. 3
189 9
183 5
180 8
177 3
172 5
168 3
171 5
170 5
171. 2
168 8
166 2
162 3
163 1
160 4

82. 7
99. 6
130. 7
112. 9
168. 7
179. 1
186. 9
178. 2
174. 3
170. 2
165. 8
161. 5
1G2 9
162. 9
163. 8
162. 4
161. 3
160. 6
162. 0
160. 5

Other than
farm products and foods
89. 0
95. 5
109. 5
105. 6
135. 2
151. 0
153. 6
153. 4
153. 6
153. 1
152. 9
151. 8
150. 7
148.9
146. 8
145. 6
145. 0
145. 0
145. 5
145. 1

152
152
152
152
152
151

159
161
160
159
158
156

158. 9
159. 7
159. 9
160. 5
161. 7
158. 6

145. 3
1 45. 0
145. 0
144. 9
144. 8
144. 6

All commodities

Period

Farm products

4
3
1
1
5
4

8
3
1
6
5
0

Foods

t

PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Form prices turned down again from September to October, with more than seasonal decreases in
hogs and poultry, and contraseasonal decreases in eggs and truck crops.
PERCENT OF'I9IO-I4 AVERAGE
350

PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE
350

PRICES RECEIVED

300

250
PRICES PAID
(INCU. INTEREST, TAXES)

200

150

150

PARITY RATIO*

100

I

1939

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

I I

I I

J F M A M J

I I

I I

I I

I I

I

I I I I I I I

I

I I

I

J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J

1947

1948

I I

I

I

J A S O N O

1949

* RATIO OF PRICES RECEIVED TO PRICES PAID, INTEREST, AND TAXES.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE




Prices paid by
Prices
(includ- Parity ratio *
received l farmers
ing interest3
by farmers
and taxes)

Period
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: September
October
November.
December
1949 : January
February
March
April .
Mav._ _ _
June
July
August
September
October
1
August 1909-July
3
1910-14=100.
3

_
_ _

.

__ _
_
_

_

77

95
124
159
192
195
202
233
278
287

124
132
150
162
169
172
193
231
249

94
106
119
116
117
121
120
115

290
277
271
268

250
249
247
247

116
111
109
108

268
258
261
260
256
252
249
245
249
243

248
245
246
246
245
245
244
243
242
240

108
105
106
106
104
103
102
101
103
101

1914=»100.

Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, and taxes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.

STOCK PRICES
Stock prices in October continued the advance that began in June. Industrials and utilities advanced
to new 1949 peaks, with industrials showing the greatest strength. Railroads were unable to hold their
early October peaks.
PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 AVERAGE

175

193940 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

J F M A M j

A s o N

1947

1949

1948

SOURCE: STANDARD AND POOR'S CORPORATION.

[1935-39 = 100]
Combined
index x

Period
Weekly average:
1939
1942
1946
1948
1948: September
October
NovemberDecember
1949: January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
Ontobftr
Week ended:
Oo.tohpr 5
12
19
26
November 2 2

. -_

.-»
.

. ^ __

_ -,

Industrials

Railroads

94.2
69.4
139.9
124.4
125.7
127.8
120.4
119.4
121.0
117.2
118.0
118. 5
117. 7
112. 0
117.8
121. 9
123.8
127.3

94. 8
71.3
143.4
130.6
131.7
134.3
126.4
125.5
127.3
122. 7
123.7
124. 2
123.4
117.0
123.4
128. 2
130.3
134. 4

74.7
66. 1
143. 0
114. 7
120.4
120.9
108.8
105.8
105.9
99.6
97.4
97. 1
95. 8
88. 4
90. 6
94. 6
95. 1
97. 6

126.0
127. 4
127. 2
128. 7
130.3

132. 7
134. 4
134.2
136. 1
138.0

97. 1
99. 1
97. 4
96. 9
96. 9

Utilities

98. 6
61.3
120.2
96.2
97.3
97.4
94.2
92.9
94.2
94.4
95.3
96. 1
95.3
93. 0
95.4
98. 5
100.0
101.2

100.
101.
101.
101.
102.

8
3
3
5
1

1
Combined index prior to June 23, 1948. was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials,
20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads,
and 31
utilities.
2
Data became available after chart was prepared.
Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation.

350—49



EMPLOYMENT
LABOR FORCE
A small increase in nonagricultural employment in October was more than offset by a decline in
agricultural employment. The unemployment figure increased slightly, due to the inclusion of some
workers who were on strike and who indicated they were looking for work. Ordinarily persons on strike
are classified as employed.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS
70

MILLIONS OF PERSONS
70

Gssa

UNEMPLOYMENT

H

60

n

_^_

__

^^^^^^^

IP

w><

m

•
•

%$,
ysfly

Wt.

^X-

— s^.

^—<^E^
—^I^^^^^^fe
llii^^^^^^Miiiii^^^^^^^^P ^Skfia^^fSAfiy'/^^^'^^^
W^^m^^^^^^mm^^^^^^^^^m
^^^^^^^^^^AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT ^^^^^^

jk^yf

H

40

TOTAL

'7%%

y<t%7

m

^^^^^^^^^^^

^

60

~

^

40

$$<

30

30

;

NONAGFRICULTURAL

20

-

-

10

-

-

~

EMPLOYMENT

-i '

-

o

1

1

I

1

1

I

-

20

-

10

?

1 A \

t t t i i 1 i i i '. i

1 1

i i i i I 1 I ill I

10

8
6
4

o
IU

-

UNEMPLOYMENT— MAGNIFIED SC AL

8
- 6

-

-

4

~__^_^^

j

F™I

0

1939

1944

1946

1947

t \ .1, i \ \ 1 I I 1 I
1948

J F M A M J

J

A

S

O

N

I f » ? [ 1 \ [ i i 1

I 1 1 Li

t i t

l9

"8

[Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over]
Period

1939 monthly average
1944 monthly average___
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: September
October
November
December
1949: January
February
March.
April
May

June
July
August
September
October

Total labor
force, including
armed
forces
55, 600
65, 890
60, 820
61, 608
62, 748
63, 578
63, 166
63, 138
62, 828
61, 546
61, 896
62, 305
62, 327
63, 452
64, 866
65, 278
65, 104
64, 222
64, 021

Civilian employment 1
Total
45, 750
53, 960
55, 250
58, 027
59, 378
60, 312
60, 134
59, 893
59, 434
57, 414
57, 168
57, 647
57, 819
58, 694
59,619
59, 720
59, 947
59,411
59, 001

In nonagricultural
industries
36, 140
45, 010
46, 930
49, 761
51, 405
51, 590
51,506
51, 932
52, 059
50, 651
50, 174
50, 254
49, 999
49, 720
49, 924
50, 073
51,441
51, 254
51, 290

In agriculture

9,610
8, 950
8,320
8, 266
7,973
8,723
8,627
7,961
7,375
6,763
6, 993
7,393
7, 820
8,974
9, 696
9,647
8,507
8, 158
7,710

Armed
forces

370
11,260
3,300
1,440
1,307
1,366
1,391
1,414
1,453
1,468
1, 508
1,491
1,492
1,469
1,468
1,463
1,468
1,459
1,445

Unemployment

9,480
670
2,270
2, 142
2,064
1,899
1,642
1,831
1,941
2,664
3, 221
3, 167
3,016
3,289
3,778
4,095
3,689
3, 351
3,576

1
Includes part-time workers and those who had jobs but were not at work for such reasons as vacation,
illness, bad wreather, temporary lay-off, and industrial disputes.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.




- P

1 I ,1

D

194?

MONTHLY A V E R A G E

^——

0

NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT - SELECTED INDUSTRIES
Further increases in manufacturing employment, both durable and nondurable, occurred in September.
Trade employment increased seasonally.
MILLIONS OF WAGE
AND S A L A R Y WORKERS

MILLIONS OF WAGE
AND SALARY WORKERS

8.0

9.0

DURABLE MANUFACTURING

NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING

1948

1949

1949

L~

I

|
J

I .
F

M

I

I
A

1

I
M

J

J

1
A

1
S

1
O

or i

i
N

D

J

i
F

1
M

A

1
M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

TRADE

CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION
10.0

1949

1948

1947
8.5

I

d.

~1

oCL.

_L

L

J

[Thousands of wage and salary workers
Manufacturing
Period
Total

1

JII

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1939 monthly average
_ _ _
1943 monthly average _
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average _
1948 monthly average
__
1948: August
September
October
November _
__
December
__
1949: January
_
February
March _
__ _ _
April
May
June
July
_
August 3 3
September
_ _ _

L

_

_ „
_ _

___

_ __

_

10,
17,
14,
15,
15,
15,
15,
15,
15,
15,
14,
14,
14,
14,
13,
13,
13,
14,
.14,

078
381
461
247
286
400
617
514
368
174
782
649
475
177
877
885
758
128
322

Durable
goods

(22)
()
(2)
8, 373
8,315
8,271
8, 360
8,393
8, 352
8, 258
8,044
7, 923
7, 819
7, 656
7,441
7, 396
7,257
7,301
7,391

Nondurable goods

Contract
construction

(22)
(2)
()
6, 874
6, 970
7, 129
7,257
7, 121
7,016
6, 916
6,738
6, 726
6, 656
6, 521
6,436
6, 489
6,501
6, 827
6, 931

1, 150
1, 567
1, 661
1, 982
2, 165
2,384
2, 369
2,334
2, 287
2, 200
2,016
1, 926
1,947
2, 036
2, 137
2, 205
2,277
2, 338
2, 315

:

Trade

6, 705
7,322
8, 815
9, 196
9, 491
9,366
9, 522
9, 654
9, 807
10, 273
9,388
9, 292
9, 310
9,478
9,342
9, 327
9, 206
9, 224
9,431

Finance
and
service

4, 610
5, 187
5, 994
6, 427
6,515
6,592
6, 574
6,531
6, 503
6,481
6,454
6, 447
6, 469
6, 525
6,567
6, 603
6, 630
6, 617
6, 603

Government Transportation and
(Federal,
public
State, local)
utilities
3,987
6,049
5, 607
5, 454
5,613
5, 533
5,668
5, 694
5,685
5, 994
5, 764
5,737
5,761
5,775
5, 813
5, 772
5, 738
5,763
5, 893

2, 912
3, 619
4,023
4, 122
4, 151
4, 213
4, 189
4, 188
4, 166
4, 158
4, 054
4,024
3,975
3, 991
4,021
4,030
4,007
3,993
3, 969

Mining

845
917
852
943
981
1,006
1,007
1,000
999
1,002
991
986
981
984
974
970
945
961
955

Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during^the pay period ending
nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, arid personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this
table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 6) which include
proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and
which are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
2
Not available.
3
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—These are revised series and do not agree with data previously published in Economic Indicators.
Source: Department of Labor.



AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES
Average weekly hours in both durable and nondurable manufacturing industries rose again in September.
HOUF*S PER WEEK

HOURS PER WEEK

DURABLE MANUFACTURING

NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING
42

42

40

— xXlK^/syvv

40

^y
38

38

36

36

34

34

1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

0

1947

1 1 1 M

1 1 1 i 1 1

1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1

1948

1949

1 1 1 1 1 1 I M

1 1

0

1 1111111111

1948

1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1

1949

40

40

38

v~

v/~^

36

~J\r\^-AT)^~A

34

34

1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

0

1947

1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1 1111111 111

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 !

1949

1950

1948

0

i i i fi 1 i ii ii

i iiii1iil li

1947

1

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1948

i i l i 1 1 1 l I 1 1

1949

1950

1

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[Hours per week, selected industries 1 ]
Manufacturing
Period
1939 monthly average _
1943 monthly average
1946 monthlv average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: August _ _ __
September
October
November
December
1949: January
February
March
April
_
Mav
June
_
_
Julv 3
August September 3
1
2
3

Total
_ _

_ _
__
_
_

__
_

37. 7
44. 9
40.4
40.4
40. 1
40. 1
39.8
40.0
39.8
40. 1
39.5
39. 4
39. 1
38.4
38.6
38. 8
38.8
39. 1
39.6

Durable
goods
(22)
()
(2)
40.6
40.5
40.6
40.0
40. 7
40.4
40. 7
40. 1
39.9
39. 5
39. 0
39.0
39.2
38.9
39.2
39. 6

Retail trade,
Building
merNondurable construction general
chandise
goods
(2)
(22)
()
40. 1
39.6
39.5
39.6
39. 1
39.2
39.3
38.7
38.8
38.6
37. 6
38. 1
38. 5
38.7
38. 9
39.7

(2)
(22)
(2)
()
37. 3
37.8
37.6
37.3
36.4
37.8
37.0
36. 5
36. 1
36.4
37. 2
37. 1
37. 1
37.2
2
()

(2)
(22)
()

(2)

36.3
36.6
37.4
36.3
36.0
35.8
37.5
36.5
36.3
36. 1
36.6
36.3
36.8
37.4
36.9

For production and related workers.
Not available.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—These are revised series and do not agree with data previously published in Economic Indicators.
Source: Department of Labor.

8

II

1950

RETAIL TRADE- GENERAL MERCHANDISE

42

36

r\^

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1947

42

*

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 | 1 1

1950

BUILDING CONSTRUCTION

38

^^^l ^->^_^^




WORK STOPPAGES
Time lost from work stoppages in September was greater than during any month since the spring of 1948.
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE
I 5

MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE
15

1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 194? 194
1949

1947

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

Man-days idle during
period
Period

1939
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948 .
1948: AugustSeptember
October
November
December
1949: January * 1
February
March l
April l > „
Mav
June 1._
July L
August '_
September
1

Monthly
average
(thousands)

1

1,484
1,921
349
1,125
727
3,169
9,667
2,883
2,842
2, 100
2,540
2,060
1,910
713
800
650
3,600
1,800
3,200
4, 600
2, 100
2,000
6,350

Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor,




Workers involved in
stoppages

Beginning
Percent of
in
estimated
period
working time (thousands)
0. 28
. 32
.05
. 15
.09
.47
1.43
. 41
.37
.26
.33
.27
.26
.09
. 11
. 10
.46
.25
.45
. 61
.31
.26
.88

1, 171
2,363
840
1, 981
2, 116
3,467
4,600
2, 170
1,960
143
158
110
111
40
70
80
500
175
250
575
110
150
510

In effect
during
month
(thousands)

232
267
194
189
93
110
120
540
225
320
660
225
250
610

Number of stoppages
Beginning
in
period
2,613
4,288
2,968
3,752
4,956
4,750
4,985
3,693
3,419
355
299
256
216
144
225
225
275
400
450
375
300
375
275

In effect
during
month

603
553
468
388
283
400
350
400
500
600
550
525
550
475

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial production increased slightly in September with a further increase in manufactures more than
offsetting the 8 percent drop in minerals. Preliminary estimates for October indicate a 10 percent drop
in the total index, chiefly as a result of the steel strike.
PERCF.NT OF 1935-33 AVERAGE
Points in Total Index

250 -

250

200

200

150

150

100

50

1949
SOURCE:BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE F E D E R A L RESERVE SYSTEM

ECONOMIC AoVlSERS

[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Points in total index,
1935-39 average for total=100

Indexes, 1935-39=100
Period

1935—39 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthlv average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: September
October _ .
November
December.
1949: January
February _ _
__ _
March _ _
April
_ __
Mav

June.
_ _
July
_
August
1
September
October L _ _

Manufactures
Total
industrial
Nondura- Minerals
production Total Durable
goods ble goods
100
239
203
170
187
192
192
195
195
192
191
189
184
179
174
169
161
170
172
155

100
258
214
177
194
198
199
202
201
199
198
196
193
184
179
176
168
177
182
162

100
360
274
192
220
225
225
231
229
231
227
225
223
212
201
194
185
192
197
151

1
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

10 for FRASER
Digitized


100
176
166
165
172
177
178
179
178
173
175
173
168
162
161
161
154
165
170
172

100
132
137
134
149
155
156
158
161
156
149
149
136
148
145
133
123
129
119
114

Manufactures
Durable
goods
38
136
104
73
83
85
85
87
87
87
86
85
84
81
76
74
70
73
75
57

Nondura- Minerals
ble goods
47
83
78
77
81
83
83
84
83
81
82
81
79
76
75
75
72
77
79
81

15
20
21
21
23
24
24
24
25
24
23
23
21
23
22
20
19
20
18
17

WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORS
Work stoppages in steel and bituminous coal industries reduced output in these industries sharply in
October, Electric power production was close to that of a year ago. The number of cars and trucks
being turned out began to drop slowly.
BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS

MILLIONS or TONS

3

STEEL

ELECTRIC POWER

T949

1949

"1947

I
A

S

0

N

I

I

I

|

THOUSANDS

MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS
3.0

M

|

D

A

M

SOURCES: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL

J

J

A

INSTITUTE,

S

O

N

Weekly average '•
1947
1948 . .

_
-_
_ _

1949: Oct. 1
8

•

15
22

29
Nov. 5

_ _

M

A

M

J

A

EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS.

Period

Week ended:
1948: Oct. 2
9_
16
23
30 _
Nov. 6

F

D

_

S

O

N

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Steel
(thousands of
net tons)

Electric power,
by utilities
(millions of
kilowatt-hours)

Bituminous
coal
(thousands of
short tons) l

1 637
1, 700

4, 821
5, 300

2,008
1,906

90, 860
100, 670

1 738
1, 757
1, 775
1, 786
1, 783
1 783

5, 449
5,482
5, 482
5, 539
5, 555
5, 564

2,009
2,056
2,077
2, 088
2, 134
2,020

115,
113,
118,
116,
110,
112,

1 560

5,
5,
5,
5,
5,

151
172
172
166
162

521
450
481
430
433

D

Cars and
trucks
(number)

304
368
398
423

2462

2

469
312
241
968
956
791

144, 285
141, 032
139, 918
135, 656
134, 208
116,929

1
2

Daily average for week.
Data became available after chart was prepared.
Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, and Ward's Automotive Reports.




11

PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE
MANUFACTURES
Output of steel and lumber in September was about the same as in August. Machinery production
increased about 4 percent, the first upturn in 9 months. Nonferrous metals rose II percent.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

LUMBER AND

1
1
1
100 1 I I I I I I I I M I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I M I I I I I I I

40

42

44- 46

48

1947

1948

100 t-fl

I

40

1949

I

I

I

42

MACHINERY

I
44

I

PRODUCTS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

MONTHLY AVERAGE

I

I I

46

48

L I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

1947

1948

1949

NONFERROUS METALS AND PRODUCTS
350

300

200

150

100

40

42

44 46 48

1947

1948

40 42

1949

44 46

48

1948

J947

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.

[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Iron and
steel

Period
1935-39 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: August
September
October
November
December
1949: January
February
M arch
April
May
June
July.
August
September
1

_ _

_
__ .
.
__

__
l

12

Machinery

Nonferrous
metals and
products

100
208
183
150
195
208

100
129
109
131
143
145

100
443
343
240
276
277

100
267
204
157
187
193

207
214
221
224
223

148
143
147
145
143

271
273
277
276
277

186
192
192
187
184

228
232
233
219
204
177
156
178
179

129
123
129
126
126
123
115
126
128

268
262
252
240
232
225
217
215
223

183
185
183
167
145
133
127
141
157

Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




Lumber and
products

j

PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE
MANUFACTURES
Activity in textile industries continued to increase in September. Production of most other nondurable
goods were above their August rates.
TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS

PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS
300

300

MONTHLY

200

200

too

0

j —"
!

1

40

1

1

42

1

1

44

1 ..[. 1...
46

^^P^-W
100

1 ! ! I I 1 i 1 i 1 1

i 1 I 1 I I 1 1 1 1 !

1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1947

1948

1949

48

0

AVERAGE

A/
v

f*~S*+*\S*

J

~"

i i i i i i i i i
40

42

44

46

48

MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS

pv^_

I 1 II 1 1 1 i ! 1 1

! 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1 I 1 1 1 1 11 1 1!

1947

r948

1949

CHEMICAL PRODUCTS
400

400

MONTHLY A
AVERAGE f%

300

300

•«

200

200

^-^

1— 1—

100

0

40 42

44

1 I I i I 1 1 i 11 1

! 11 1 1 1 1 ! ! 11

1947

1948

46 48

1 I ! 1 1 I 1 I!

1949

I !

.•

-*—••" •--'

\_

/
/

100

0

1

|

40

|

|

42

|

|

44

|

| |

46

48

1! 1 i 1 1 I i 1 1 i

1 1 1 ! i i 1! 1 1 1

1947

1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1948

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

1949

C O U N C I L OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

[1935-39= 100, seasonally adjusted]
Textiles and
products

Period

Petroleum
and coal
products

Manufactured food
products

Chemical
products

1935—39 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average - 1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average

100
153
146
162
163
169

100
185
235
173
193
218

100
145
151
150
157
159

100
384
284
236
251
254

1948: August
September
October
November
December

166
168
167
164
156

221
207
217
227
231

156
163
161
159
158

259
257
255
257
257

160
157
142
129
123
126
120
140
155

228
221
213
209
207
202
198
204
206

160
162
162
162
162
165
161
164
165

257
250
245
237
234
231
226
228
230

1949: January
February... _
March.
April
May-June
July
August_
September 1

_ _

_

_

.
_ _

._

1

Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Preserve System.
98350—49

3




13

NEW CONSTRUCTION
New construction showed continued strength in October with a less than seasonal drop of 2 percent.
MILLIONS

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

OF DOLLARS

2,000

2,000

1,500

1,500

—;
»,000

\

1,000

I

\ \1

1939

i

A

1942 1944 1946 1947 1948

M

J

J

A

S

1949

^INCLUDES PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF C O M M E R C E AND DEPARTMENT OF L A B O R

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars]
Private construction
Period

1939 monthly average.
1942 monthly average
1944 monthly average
._
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
_
1948 monthly average
1948: August
September
October
November _ _
December
1949: January
February
_ _
March
April
_ » _ _ _
May
June
_
Julv
August
SeptemberOctober 2 _ _ _ _ _

14for FRASER
Digitized


1
2

Total new
construction

526
1, 118
345
871
1, 194
1,565
1,934
1,901
1,814
1, 646
1,447
1,293
1, 172
1,267
1,378
1,585
1,745
1,841
1,888
1,892
1.856

Total
private

Residential
(nonfarm)

317
251
152
688
932
1,214
1,454
1,427
1,355
1,256
1, 129
1,002
905
951
997
1,117
1,239
1,309
1, 328
1,338
1. 324

Includes public residential construction.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.

176
110
45
265
438
602
720
707
670
615
547
475
400
420
445
530
600
650
660
680
695

Other
141
141
107
422
493
612
734
720
685
641
582
527
505
531
552
587
639
659
668
658
629

Federal,
State, and
local *

208
867
193
184
262
351
480
474
459
390
318
291
267
316
381
468
506
532
560
554
532

NEW HOUSING STARTS
Housing starts continued to hold at high levels in September and also in October, according to preliminary indications. Thus far this year, there has been no repetition of last year's decline.
THOUSANDS OF UNITS
125

THOUSANDS OF UNITS

125

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.




New nonfarm units started

Month

1947
January _
February
March
April
-

_
__

__
___

_ _

__

May

June
-_
July
August
September
October
November
December
Total

______

-_

________

Monthly average.

_ __

1948

39, 300
42, 800
56, 000
67, 100
72, 900
77, 200
81, 100
86, 300
93,800
94, 000
79, 700
58, 800

53, 500
50, 100
76, 400
99, 500
100, 300
97, 800
95, 000
86, 600
82, 200
73, 400
63, 600
52, 900

849, 000

931, 300

70, 750

77, 600

1949
50, 000
50, 400
69, 400
88, 300
95, 400
95,
500
1
96, 000
1
98, 000
1
100, 000

1

Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.

15

EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT
AND EQUIPMENT

Nonagricultural business firms reported in a recent SEC-Commerce survey expected expenditures of
$17,9 billion on new plant and equipment for 1949. Actual expenditures for 1st half of this year
were I percent above 1st half of 1948 but estimate for 2nd half was about 14 percent under actual
expenditures for the corresponding period last year.

BULLIONS OF DOLLARS
25

BILLIONS OF DO

ANN UAL TOTALS

TRANSPORTATION AND
ELECTRIC AND GAS
FUTILITIES

—

1939
*

1941

NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL

—

—

—

0

1945

VARIATION.

SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE C O M M I S S I O N AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal]
Period

Total i

Manufacturing

Mining

Transportation
Railroad

1939
1941
1945
1947
1948 3
1949 _ _
_
_
___
1947: Third quarter. __ ___
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter _
__
1949: First quarter
Second quarter3
Third quarter
_ _ __ _
Fourth quarter 3
1
2
3

5,200
8, 190
6, 630
16, 180
19, 230
17, 920
16, 560
19, 760
16, 680
19, 280
19, 320
21, 640
17, 840
18, 640
18, 200
17, 000

1,930
3,400
3,210
7,460
8,340
7, 120
7,480
9, 160
7,200
8,560
8, 360
9,280
7,400
7,520
7,080
6,480

380
680
440
690
800
740
720
840
720
800
800
880
760
760
720
680

280
560
550
910
1,320
1,360
920
1,200
1,080
1, 240
1,320
1, 640
1,440
1,520
1,360
1, 120

Other
280
340
320
800
700
540
800
760
720
760
680
680
520
560
560
520

Electric and Commercial
miscelgas utilities and
laneous 2
480
710
630
1,900
2,680
3, 100
2,000
2,480
2,000
2,560
2, 760
3,400
2,720
3, 120
3,240
3, 320

1,850
2,490
1,480
4,430
5,390
5,080
4,640
5,360
4, 960
5,360
5,440
5, 760
5,040
5, 160
5,200
4,960

Excludes agriculture.
Commercial and miscellaneous composed of trade, service, finance, and communication.
Estimates for third quarter are based on preliminary estimates of business in July; fourth quarter figures are based on anticipated
capital expenditures.
NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agrieultuial investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to
current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and
other data.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted).




NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES
After reaching the postwar peak (quarterly rate) during the 2nd quarter of this year, corporate issues fell
substantially in the 3rd quarter, reflecting the usual seasonal movement.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

3.0

3.0

2.5

2.5

2:'0

2.0

1939

1943

1946

1947

1948

SOURCE: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION.

[Millions of dollars]
Proposed uses of net proceeds
Estimated
net proceeds

Period

New money
Total

1943 quarterly average
1946 quarterly average

-

1948 quarterly average

-

1947* Third quarter
1948" First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949* First quarter
Third quarter ^

- - -

- ..

-

Plant and
equipment

Working
capital

Retirement
of debt and
stock *

529
287
1,475
1,689
1,617
1,748

81
77
270
820
1, 148
1,491

43
35
159
529
852
1,060

39
42
111
291
296
431

448
210
1,206
869
469
257

1,374
2,311

884
2,000

692
1,654

192
347

490
310

1,769
1, 817
1,352
2, 054

1, 511
1,493
1,087
1,874

918
1, 091
774
1,459

593
402
314
415

260
325
265
180

1,056
2,311
807

850
1,968
688

699
1,615
599

152
353
89

206
343
119

1
2

Includes small amount for other purposes.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.




17

INVENTORIES AND SALES
September soles of manufacturers and retailers were moderately higher than August, after allowance
for seasonal fluctuation. Liquidation of manufacturers' inventories continued but at a slower rate than
in recent months.
BILL IONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

WHOLESALE

RETAIL

20

20

INVEh T( )RIES

>•-•

INVE Ml ORiES

1 0

.*

1 0

••••*••••••„.
....:.

"'

.X

""^/

\ALES

L

0

I

I

40

BILL IONS

I

!

42

1

1
44

1

1
46

1

1 1 1 M

1 11 I 1 I 1 I ! 1 i
48

1947

1 1 M

II

1 M

1948

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

0

1

1

1

40

1949

PERCE ^JT

OF DOLLARS

1

42

1

1

44

!

1

1

46

1

1 ! M

48

1 1 1 1 ! 1 11
1947

1 1 i 1 1 111 I M
1948

i i i l l 1 i i 11 i
1949

OF 1935-1939 A V E R A G E

MANUFACTURERS

DEPARTMENT STORES

40

400

INVE MT ORIES

V \

30

,••-"•

>

\L IS

300

"

^

^/

v

>^\

^

,•"*•.
\J^

X/

/
20

•1 0

0

/*

/
/rX^A

/
42

44

46

48

j

"f~~'^

L ES

, , , . , I , I , M

1947

M

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11

1948

1 1111I1 1 111

//INVEf TC)RIES

200

1 00

11ii11111
40

-w

„— ^^s

"*

0

/

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
40

1949

42

44

46

i 1 1 I i 1 1 1 I lI

i n u l l MI i

M i l l ! II

1947

1948

1949

48

OURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FE DERAL RES ERVE SYSTEM

Period

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Retail

Wholesale
Inventories l

Sales 2

Inventories 1

Manufacturers
Sales 2

Inventories ]

Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
939
__
_ _ _
941
-_
_- .
9 4 3
_ _ _ _ _
945
_ __
946
_ _ _ _ _
_-_ __
_ _.
947
948
__
_ _ _ _ _
948* August
September
October
_
_ _
November
December _ _ _
949* January
February
March
April
_ _ _
May
_
_ _
June
July
___
August
5
SeDtember _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
1
2
3
4
8

3, 175
4, 182
3,684
4,638
6, 665
8,653
9,511
9,420
9,581
9, 730
9,714
9,511
9,464
9,479
9,293
9,330
9, 153
9,002
9,074
9,026
9, 151

2,505
3,620
4,273
4, 983
6,601
7, 754
8,355
8,522
8,489
8, 083
8,236
8, 158
7,723
7,680
7, 890
7,422
7,498
7,718
7, 158
7,703
7,571

5,532
7, 630
7,361
7,543
11, 226
13, 221
14, 969
14, 490
14, 877
14, 937
15, 027
14, 969
14, 659
14, 479
14, 700
14, 458
14, 139
14, 182
13, 862
13,932
14, 422

3, 504
4,624
5, 277
6,315
8,358
9,909
10, 837
11,030
10, 961
10, 899
10, 763
10, 987
10, 592
10, 686
10, 705
10, 790
10, 738
10, 663
10, 521
10, 679
10, 740

Sales 2

L8

Department stores
Inventories 3
Sales 3
1935-39 = 100, seasonally
adjusted

4

11,465
16, 960
20, 098
18, 390
24, 818
29, 817
34, 066
32, 841
33, 380
33, 528
33, 810
34, 066
34, 409
34, 408
34, 223
34, 018
33, 565
33, 250
32, 367
31,656
31, 200

5,099
8, 168
12, 822
12, 873
12, 841
17, 076
19, 028
19, 652
19, 902
18, 978
19, 648
19, 065
17, 880
18, 175
18, 451
17, 643
17, 741
17, 990
17, 114
18, 689
19, 200

Book value, end of period.
Monthly average for year and total for month.
Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for month and retail book value of inventories, end of period.
All dollar figures, except for retail sales, have been revised and do not agree with previously published data.
Preliminary estimates.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




1 M

102
131
155
166
213
255
291
285
290
290
296
291
278
276
283
280
273
265
256
253
263

106
133
168
207
264
286
302
309
309
308
289
305
295
281
277
294
292
285
280
283
289

MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
Imports in September recovered another 8 percent for the second successive month but were still
little more than in June, when they were at the lowest level in a year and a half. Exports also rose
slightly.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1,600

1600
MONTHLY AVERAGES

1,400

- 1,400

L200

1,200

1,000

- 1,000

800

800

600

- 600

400

400

200

- 200

1943

1936-38

1946

1947

F

1943

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

1949
; FOR OCCUPIED AREAS.
** RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT.OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY

[Millions of dollars]
Exports l

Period
1936-38 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthlv average _ _
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
<_
1948 monthly average

247

1,080

877
849

_

1948: Augupt
September..
October
November. _
December

990
926

Mav

1, 021

_ _

1949: January
February _ _ _
March
April
_
June
_
July
August _
September

1,278
1,051

820

1, 285
1, 094
1, 032
1, 159
1, 148
1, 077
1, 304

___
_ _
_

897
881
904

Imports a

Excess of
exports

207
282
346
410
478
594

40
798
531
439
801
457

606
560
600
554
720

384
366
421
266
565

590
568
632
534
539
527
456
491
530

504
464
527
614
538
578
441
390
374

1
1

Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas.
Recorded general merchandise imports.
Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy.




19

PURCHASING POWER
NATIONAL INCOME
Motional income continued to decline in 3rd quarter, according to preliminary estimates. Compensation
of employees held steady, while farm income ( part of proprietors' and rental) showed a significant drop.
BILLI ONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOL.LARS

250

250

ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

ANNUAL TOTALS

TOTAL NAT IONAL
INCOIV

_-»-*—'~"~*"*^

E

V-^^^

_JX^
-—^

"""H
ss^

200

^

^-~

200

c^^^^^^v

g^SS^*^

2§§

>——^,

CORPORATE PROFITS AND
INVENTORY VALUATION:
ADJUSTMENT:

:

,•

; NET INTEREST: •

PROPRIETORS^AND
RENTAL INCOME

:

" v£/v<rf ^'''.X's •'

*''&$£&:*''• *;
: f ; ;-;/^Y"
-'-

5^

" < '/ '/>• •' ' *'"•' "X-

1 50

150

, " ,' "/,,.:' &!<>£•

-—

l£

' ^^^^«i*~^^'~S*t*anmm*ri~"
- *Knr*a*ia*'aK*f^

-

1 00

100

-

'COMPENSATION OF!
EMPLOYEES!

35S
50

50

1939

1944

IS47

1948

I 1 - _J

i

L L

0

1949

3

4

1

1947

2

F

..J

J
3

4

1

1948

2

1
3*

1
1

4

0

2
I960

1949

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (except as noled).

[Billions of dollars]

Total
national
income

Period

1939
1944
1946
1947
1948 .

„

72. 5
183. 8
179.6
201.7
226.2

Corporate profits and inventory
valuation adjustment

Compensation of
employees

Proprietors*
and rental
income

Net interest

47.8
121. 2
117. 0
127. 6
140.3

14. 7
35. 5
41.3
45. 1
49. 5

4. 2
3. 1
3.0
3.4
3.8

Total
5.8
24.0
18.3
25.6
32.6

Profits
before
taxes

Inventory
valuation
adjustment

6.5
24.3
23.6
31.6
34. 8

-0.7
-.3
-5.3
-6.0
-2.2

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter _
Fourth quarter

215. 1
224. 9
230.4
234.3

135. 1
137. 7
143. 3
144. 9

48. 0
50.4
49. 9
49. 7

3. 6
3.7
3.9
4. 1

28.5
33.0
33.3
35.7

33.0
35.0
36.6
34.5

-4.5
-2.0
-3.3
+ 1.2

1949: First quarter l
Second quarter
Third quarter 2

226. 3
223.7
218. 7

142. 5
141.7
141. 2

47.8
46.7
43.6

4.2
4. 3
4. 3

31.8
31. 1
29. 6

29.4
26.4
26.0

+ 2.3
+4.7
+ 3.6

1
a

20

Preliminary estimates.
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).




CORPORATE PROFITS
According to preliminary estimates for the 3rd quarter, corporate profits were slightly below the 2nd
quarter rate. When allowance is made for inventory valuation adjustment, the decline was more substantial.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

4 0

40

ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

I960
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED)

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]

Period

1929..
1939
1944
1946
1947
1948
_

-

-

Corporate
profits
before taxes

Corporate
tax
liability

9.8
6.5
24. 3
23. 6
31.6
34.8

1.4
1.5
13. 5
9.6
12. 5
13.6

Corporate profits after taxes
Total
8.4
5.0
10. 8
13. 9
19. 1
21.2

Dividend
payments
5.8
3.8
4. 7
5.8
7.0
7.9

Undistributed
profits
2.6
1.2
6. 1
8. 1
12. 1
13.2

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

33.0
35.0
36. 6
34.5

12.8
13. 7
14.4
13. 6

20.2
21. 3
22.2
20. 9

7.6
7. 7
7.9
8.3

12.6
13.6
14.3
12. 6

1949* First quarter 1
Second quarter
Third quarter 2

29.4
26.4
26.0

11.5
10.6
10.4

17.9
15. 8
15.6

8.4
8.4
8.3

9.5
7.4
7.3

1
2

Preliminary estimates.
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data.
NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment, See p. 20 for profits before
taxes and inventory valuation adjustment.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).




21

PERSONAL INCOME
Total personal Income changed little in September, Ajirop in agricultural income (part of proprietors' income) resulting from
smaller crop marketings was almost offset by small increases in most other items,
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS D O L L A R S

250
ANNUAL RATES. SEASONALLY

250

ADJUSTED

TRANSFER PAYMENTS
DIVIDENDS AND INTEREST

PROPRIETORS AND RENTAL INCOME

SALARIES. WAGES, ETC

-1 'l I i - L i I I
1939

SOURCE:

1944

1947

1948

1949

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

Total
personal
income

Period

__

.

_

.

72. 6
165. 9
176. 9
193. 5
211. 9

Salaries, wages,
and other
labor income

Proprietors'
and rental
income

Dividends
and personal
interest

45.7
116.2
111. 0
122.0
135. 1

14. 7
35.5
41.2
45. 1
49.5

9.2
10. 6
13.2
14.8
16.2

Transfer
payments

3. 0
3.6
11.4
11.7
11. 1

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: July _
August
September
October
November
December
1949: January
_ _ _ _
February
March
April
May
JuneJuly
August _ l _ _ _
September
_ _
1

214. 5
215.4
216. 3
216. 3
216. 6
217.0
215. 7
212. 9
212.4
212. 5
213. 1
211.9
209.7
211. 4
210. 8

136. 6
138. 5
139.7
140. 1
139. 5
139. 1
138. 6
137. 1
135. 6
136.8
137. 1
136. 1
136. 3
136.6
136. 9

50. 8
49.5
49.4
49.0
49. 8
50.3
49.0
47. 2
47. 3
46. 3
46. 7
46.5
44.2
45.2
44. 1

Preliminary estimate. Detailed data became available after chart was prepared.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.

22




M

J

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]

1939
1944
1946
1947
1948

A

16. 0
16.3
16.5
16.8
16.9
16.9
17.0
17. 1
17. 1
17.2
17. 3
17.2
17. 1
17.3
17. 5

11. 1
11. 1
10. 7
10.4
10. 4
10. 7
11. 1
11. 5
12.4
12.2
12. 0
12. 1
12. 1
12. 3
12. 3

CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING
Preliminary information for 3rd quarter indicates that disposable personal income dropped about
twice as much as consumer spending, resulting in a reduction in the indicated rate of saving.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250

DISPOSABLE
PERSONAL INCOME

"PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES.

""^PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED).

[Billions of dollars]
Disposable
personal
income *

Period

1939
1940
1941
1942
1943_
1944
1945
1946
1947_ .
1948

70.2
75.7
92.0
116. 2
131. 6
147.0
151. 1
158. 1
172. 0
190.8

__

Less: Personal
consumption
expenditures

Equals: Personal saving

67.5
72. 1
82.3
90.8
101.6
111.6
123. 1
147.8
166.9
178.8

2.7
3.7
9.8
25. 4
30.0
35.4
28.0
10.3
5. 1
12. 0

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter _ _
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter 2
Second quarter
Third quarter 3 _

_ __
_
_

_

181.9
189. 6
195.2
196.2
195.0
194. 2
190.4

175.2
178. 7
180. 3
180.9
177.9
178.2
176. 5

6.7
10. 8
15.0
15.3
17. 1
16. 0
13. 9

1
Income less
2
Preliminary
8

taxes.
estimates.
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).




23

PER CAPITA INCOME
Per capita disposable income, in terms of real purchasing power, continued near peak levels in
3rd quarter.
DOLLARS

DOLLARS

1,600

1,600

ANNUAL R A T E S , S E A S O N A L L Y ADJUSTED

1948 DOLLARS

1,200

1,200

800

CURRENT DOLLARS

400

I
1939

1942

1940

1943

PERSONAL INCOME LESS T A X E S

1944

1945

1946

1947

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S .

L
2
3
1948

I

l

4

1949

1950

**CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE CONSUMERS* PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE 1948=100
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.. ( E X C E P T A S NOTED).

Period
1939
1940
1941_
1942.
1943
1944
1945.
1946_
1947
1948

_

_

_

___

_.

__

_
_

.. .

_

Per capita disposable
personal
income l
Current
1948 dollars »
dollars
$536
$923
574
981
691
1,125
1,262
867
1,314
970
1,065
1,405
1,082
1,389
1,342
1, 119
1,282
1, 194
1,302
1,302
Annual rates, seasonally
adjusted

1948: First quarter Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter. _4
Second quarter5 _ ._
Third quarter __
1
Income less taxes.
2
Current dollars divided
3

_ _
_ _ _
_.

1,248
1,296
1,328
1,328
1,315
1,304
1.273

1,273
1,301
1,305
1,319
1,326
1,317
1.290

Consumers'
price index1
1948=100
58. 1
58.5
61.4
68.7
73.8
75.8
77.9
83.4
93.1
100.0
Not adjusted
for seasonal
variation

98.0
99.6
101.8
100.7
99.2
99.0
98. 7

by the consumers' price index on the base 1948=100.
The consumers' price index has been roughly adjusted to take account of the understatement from
December 1941-February 1947. This adjustment is in line with the report of the Mitchell Committee. The
unadjusted
index will be found on page 2.
4
Preliminary estimates.
6
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data.
Source: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor (except as noted).

24




AVERAGE HOURLY EAE

"GS - SELECTED

Changes in average hourly earnings in September w ere not

significant.

DOLLA RS

PER HOUR

DOLL *RS PER HOUR

1.60

1.50

DURABLE MANUFACTURING

NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING
1.40

1.50
1948

DOLLARS* ^*~Z*

£^2~*^
1948

/

^

_.
*,J*

/'x^-*'*"

^r

1.20

1.30
/

CURF ENT

DOLLARS/
S*^

CURREINT

DOLLARS

IT, . . . I . . . . ,

l i i i l I i i l i i

1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1 1 II 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1

1948

1949

1950

1947

0

jjjuj IJLLLJLL,

I 1 I [ U M l

1947

1

1

,

1. 10

1.20

0

*crrj>b

DOLLARS*
f

1.30

1.40

H I M L! I l l 1

1948

1 1 1 1 1

1949

1 1 1 1 1

1950

1.20

2.1 0

BUILDING CONSTRUCTION

RETAIL TRADE-GENERAL MERCHANDISE
I.I 0

2.00

J=^

1.90

1.00

1948 DOLLARS* /J

1946

DOLLARS*

€s&"*

.90

1.80
**• /

^CURRENT

DOLLARS
^—S*~^

I.7O

0

.80
| ! 1 1 | 1 1 I 1 1 1

1 1 1 | 1 1 1 1 | | |

I l I l 1 1 I 1 I 1 1

1 1 II L 1 1 1 1 1 1

1947

IS48

1349

1950

0

"*

^CURREhF '

! 1 1 | | I 1 1 1 | 1

DOLLARS

!

1 1 1 ! 1 1 I

1947

1

ll|

1 1 I 1 1 1 1
1949

1948

1 1 1 1 1

1 1 1 1 1

I95O

948
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[Selected industries ]
All manufacturing
Period
Current
dollars
1939 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average- _
1948 monthly average
1948- August
September
__ _
October
November
December
1949: January
February _
March
April
_ _ _ _ _ _
May
June
__
July
August 4
-- -September 4

$0. 633
.961
1.084
1.237
1. 350
1.373
1.386
1. 390
1.397
1. 400
1. 405
1.401
1.400
1. 401
1. 401
1. 406
1. 408
1.398
L 405

1948
dollars 2
$1. 090
1. 302
1. 300
1. 329
1. 350
1. 347
1. 360
L 371
1. 389
1. 399
1.408
1.419
1. 414
1.414
1. 418
1.419
1. 431
1.418
1. 418

Durable goods manufacturing
Current
dollars

(8)
(33)
()
$1. 292
1. 410
1. 441
1. 457
1. 462
1. 463
1.466
1.467
1. 466
1.464
1. 467
1.467
1. 476
1. 478
1.474
1. 481

1948
dollars 2
(33)
()
(3)
$1. 388
1. 410
1. 414
1.430
1. 442
1. 454
1.465
1. 470
1. 485
1. 480
1.480
1. 485
1. 489
1. 502
1. 495
1. 494

Nondurable goods
manufacturing
Current
dollars

(3)
(33)
()
$1. 171
1.278
1. 293
1.304
1. 302
1. 317
1. 319
1. 327
1. 323
1. 323
1.321
1. 323
1. 325
1. 332
1 . 320
1. 326

1948
dollars 2

Building construction
Current
dollars

(33)
()
(3)
$1. 258
1. 278
1. 269
1. 280
1.284
1. 309
1.318
1. 330
1. 340
1. 336
1. 333
1. 339
1. 337
1. 354
1. 339
1. 338

(33)
()
(33)
()
$1. 848
1. 874
1.895
1. 892
1. 906
1. 915
1. 918
1. 930
1. 933
1. 934
1. 930
1. 924
1. 922
1. 931
(3)

1948
dollars 2
(33)
()
(33)
()
$1. 848
1. 839
1. 360
1. 866
1. 895
1. 913
1. 922
1. 955
L 953
1. 952
1. 953
1. 941
1. 953
1. 958
(3)

General merchandise
retail trade
Current
dollars

(33)
()
(3)
$0. 853
. 910
. 917
. 923
. 922
. 918
. 919
.943
. 937
.933
. 934
. 960
.968
. 951
.957
3
()

1948
dollars 2
(33)
()
(3)
$0. 916
.910
.900
.906
. 909
. 913
.918
.945
.949
.942
. 942
.972
. 977
. 966
.971
(3)

1

Production and related workers.
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on base 1948=100. See note 3 to table on page 24.
Not available.
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE. — These are revised series and do not agree with data previously published in Economic Indicators.
Source: Department of Labor.

2

3
4




25

?MT1S!°GS
fe.JS» 12

AJL

Average week! v earnings in nondurable goods industries5 rose in
durable goods employees continued upward.
DOLL A R 3

PER

September to a new peak. Earnings of

DOLL ARS

W <-. £ K

65

- SELECTED INDUSTRIES

V

PER

WEEK

*60

NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING

DURABLE M ANUFACTURING

*

60

DOLLARS

IS 48

X\''

s**4fr

s~°^*

55

•%#=#

1948

50

55

/%rv/ """" G U R R E N T

DOLLARS*

^^""^""'^^^o^Zs^'

rv'

DOLLARS
>

45

50

lf*°~*<*r

^ CURR ENT

DOLLARS

40

45

^
0

l JJ^ ! i „ i i ; 1 J_

JUJJjJjJJLLJL UJ.JJJuJj.JJJU-

1948

1949

0

I 1 ! I 1 i 1 1 1 II

U.J1JJ III 1 Li

1950

1947

1 I!

1948

I 1 I 1 1 I f !

1 « I I 1 1 II I

|?

I960

1949

45

80

RETAIL TRADE -GENERAL MERCHANDISE

BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
40

75

70

1948

1948

y^

DOLLAF
%

65

^^

DOLLARS*

,-„

35

/ '

TZtf**^

30

^ CURRENT C OLLARS

^^ CURREN T

DOLLARS

25

60
0 .JJ_~UjJuJJJJ_
1947

L ,IIII_IJ_.LLJ_L.I_L JL_l_LJjJj_JJ_Ll,
1948

1949

=r
1 1 1 1 1 ! l ! 1 1 1

0

LL L J ! l L 1 1 LI

I960

1 1 1 II 1 1 1 1 ! 1

1947
** NOT A V A I L A B L E

1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1948

1949

PR OR TO JANUARY

1 i 1 I 1 1 1 | ! |T
1950

1948
COUNCIL

1

OF

ECONOMIC

ADVISORS

[Selected industries l]
All manufacturing

Durable goods manufacturing

Nondurable goods
manufacturing

Building construction

General merchandise
retail trade

Period
Current
dollars

1948
'dollars 2

Current
dollars

1948
dollars 2

Current
dollars

1948
dollars 2

Current
dollars

$41. 07
1939 month! 3r average
$23. 86
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
(33)
1Q43 monthly average
43. 14
58.46
(33)
(33)
(3)
003
(3)
52. 45
43. 74
1946 monthly average
(3)
()
()
CO
$50. 44
$52. 46
$56. 35
$46. 96
49. 97
53. 67
1947 monthly7 average _ _ » _
()
$68. 85
50. 61
54. 14
57. 11
57. 11
54. 14
1948 monthl} average
50. 61
70. 91
50. 12
54. 03
57. 41
51. 07
55. 06
58. 50
1948: August
71. 29
50. 68
55. 16
54. 13
58. 28
57. 19
September __ _
51. 64
70. 59
50. 21
October
58. 68
50. 91
54. 83
55. 60
59. 50
69. 39
51. 32
51. 63
58. 76
55. 60
55. 27
59. 1 1
November. _
72. 33
51. 79
December _
_ _ _ _ _ _
59. 61
56. 14
59. 67
56. 08
51. 84
70. 88
51.45
55. 50
58. 83
58. 95
51. 35
55. 61
1949: January
_
52. 01
70. 53
55 20
59. 26
f^ebruarv
55. 93
58. 49
51. 33
69. 83
51. 59
51. 07
March
_ _ _
54. 74
57. S3
58. 41
55. 29
70. 33
50. 12
54. 29
57. 73
49. 67
April
53. 80
57. 21
51.
02
50. 41
71. 81
57. 90
May
_ _
54. 08
54. 74
57. 21
71. 44
51.01
51. 47
57. 86
58. 39
54. 55
55. 05
June
52. 35
71. 28
51. 51
55. 52
58. 39
54. 63
57. 46
July 4
71.91
52. 04
55.44
58. 56
51. 31
54. 66
57. 74
August
_
53. 12
59. 18
52, 64
56. 1 5
September 4 ..
__ .
58. fi5
55. 64
(3)
1
For production and related workers.
2
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1948=100. See note 3 to table on page 24.
8
Not available.
4
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—These are revised series and do not agree with data previously published in Economic Indicators.
Source: Department of Labor.

()

26




1948
dollars 2
(33)
()
(33)
()
$68. 85
69. 59
69. 96
69. 62
68. 98
72. 26
71. 02
71. 46
70. 54
70. 97
72. 68
72.09
72. 44
72.93
(3)

Current
dollars

(33)
(3)
()
$30. 96
33. 31
34. 30
33. 50
33. 19
32. 86
34. 46
34. 42
34.01
33. 68
34. 18
34. 85
35. 62
35.57
35.31
(3)

1948
dollars

2

(33)
(3)
()
$33. 25
33.31
33.66
32.88
32. 73
32, 66
34.43
34.49
34.46
34.02
34.49
35. 27
35. 94
36. 15
35.81
(3)

The purchasing power of farmers' receipts in September continued substantially lower than a year
previous, reflecting the much greater decrease in prices received by farmers then in prices paid.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4

I
1939

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

I

48

'INCLUDES CASH FARM INCOME FROM MARKETING AND GOVERNMENT PAYMENTS.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.

Farm income
(millions of
current
dollars) *

Period

1939 monthly average
_
1 Q4 1 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: August
_
September
October
November
December
1949: January
_ _ _ _
February
_ _ _
March
April
__
IVlay
_ _
June _
_ _ _ _
July 4
August
September 4 , _ _ _

794
981

_ _ _ _
_.
_

_ _ _ _ _
_ _

_ _

_ _ _ _
_ _ _

_
__
_

_ _
_ _ _ _

1 340
1 678
1 765
1 857
2 UO
2 542
2 609
2 722
3 132
3 714
3, 314
2 740
2 383
1, 783
1 973
1, 850
1 944
2 053
2 177
2, 417
2. 608

Prices paid by
farmers (incl. Farm income
(millions of
interest and
taxes) 1948
= 1948 dollars) »
2
100
49 8
53 0
60 2
65 1
67. 9
69 1
77. 5
92 8
100. 0
100. 8
100 4
100. 0
99. 2
99 6
99. 6
98. 4
98 8
98. 8
98. 4
98. 4
98. 0
97. 7
97. 2

1, 454
1 851
2, 226
2 578
2, 599
2 687
2, 723
2, 739
2, 609
2, 700
3 120
3, 714
3, 341
2, 751
2, 393
1, 812
1, 997
1, 872
1, 976
2,086
2. 221
2, 474
2, 683

1
2
3

Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments.
Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1948=100.
Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, and taxes, 1948=100.
* Preliminary estimates.
Source: Department of Agriculture*



27

CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Heovy purchases of automobiles and other durables plus an increase in service expenditures failed to
o f f s e t entirely the drop in expenditures for nondurcbles in 3rd quarter.
B I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

£#£:££ DURABLE GOODS'##&$}$.

100

1950
SOURCE:

nrpfeRTMHNT OF COMMERCE ( E X C E P T AS NOTED).

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

[Billions of dollars]
Personal consumption expenditures
Period
Nondurable
goods

Total
1939
1944
1946
1947_
1948

67.5
111. 6
147.8
166. 9
178.8

35.3
67.1
86.8
96. 2
102.2

Durable
goods
6.7
7. 1
16. 5
22. 0
23. 5

Services
25.5
37.4
44. 5
48.8
53. 1

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

First quarter 1
Second quarter
Third quarter 2

1949:

28for FRASER
Digitized


1
2

_

__

__ _

175. 2
178. 7
180.3
180.9

101.2
102. 4
101.8
103. 3

22.7
23. 8
24. 8
22. 9

51.3
52. 5
53. 7
54, 8

177.9
178.2
176. 5

99.9
98. 7
96.0

22. 5
23. 6
24. 0

55. 4
55.9
56. 5

Preliminary estimates.
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).

CONSUMER CREDIT
The rise in total consumer credit in September was greater than last year. Increases occurred in ail major
categories.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2 0

1943

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2 0

1946

J

1947

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

i'aialSaHSiKSSEUHniSSSUlStniiHisHiHHSHlaSHggSiaHSaSfSSH'
J F M A M J
J A S O N D J

F

M

A

M

1948

1947

END OF YEAR

J

1949

END OF MONTH
SOURCE: B O A R D OF G O V E R N O R S OF THE F E D E R A L R E S E R V E SYSTEM.

[Millions of dollars]
Total
consumer
credit
outstanding

End of period

1939
1943
1946
1947
1948
1948: August
September. _ _
October
November
December
1949: January __
February
March _ _
April
May
June
July
August 2
September 2

_ _ __

_

__

__

Instalment credit
Total

Automobile
sale
credit

Other sale
credit and
loans

Charge
accounts

Other
consumer
credit l

7,969
5,378
10, 191
13, 673
16, 319

4,424
2,001
4,000
6,434
8,600

1,267
175
544
1, 151
1,961

3, 157
1,826
3,456
5,283
6, 639

1, 544
1,498
3,054
3,612
3,854

2,001
1, 879
3, 137
3, 627
3,865

14,
15,
15,
15,
16,

916
231
518
739
319

7,972
8, 190
8,233
8,322
8,600

1,781
1, 858
1,889
1, 922
1,961

6, 191
6,332
6,344
6,400
6,639

3, 130
3,227
3,457
3, 557
3,854

3,814
3, 814
3,828
3,860
3,865

15,
15,
15,
15,
15,
16,
16,
16,
16,

748
325
335
595
843
124
198
458
804

8,424
8, 339
8,429
8,630
8,888
9, 123
9, 335
9, 615
9,888

1, 965
1, 996
2, 105
2,241
2, 386
2,499
2, 610
2, 761
2, 883

6,459
6,343
6, 324
6,389
6, 502
6,624
6,725
6, 854
7,005

3,457
3, 169
3, 121
3,232
3, 235
3, 274
3, 123
3,064
3, 123

3,867
3,817
3, 785
3, 733
3, 720
3, 727
3, 740
3, 779
3, 793

1
2

Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit.
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




29

MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
Loons and private investments of commercial banks increased $800 million in September. Investments
in U. S. Government securities continued near the" August level.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

125

100

75

50

25

S

IS£9
IS39
!945
END OF Y E A R

O

N

D

J

F M A M J .

J * A S O N D

1948
END OF MONTH

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
Council of Economic Adviser:

[Billions of dollars]

End of period

1929
1939
1945
1947
1948
1948: August
September
October
November
December
1949: January
February
March
April
Mav

June
Julv
August
ScDtember l .
1

.

_ _ __

_. _

_ _

_
_

_ _
_ _ _ __
-

Investments

Total
loans and
investments

Bank loans

49. 5
40. 7
124. 0
116. 3
114. 3
115. 1
113. 6
114. 1
114. 2
114. 3
114. 5
113. 4
112. 5
112. 5
113. 4
113. 7
114. 7
117. 9
118. 8

36. 0
17. 2
26. 1
38. 1
42.5
40. 6
41.7
41. 6
42.3
42.5
42.4
42. 0
42. 4
41.3
40.9
41.2
40. 5
41.2
41. 8

Total

Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

30for FRASER
Digitized


13. 5
23. 4
97. 9
78.2
71.8
74. 5
71.9
72. 5
71.9
71.8
72.0
71. 4
70. 1
71. 2
72.6
72. 5
74. 2
76. 7
77. 0

U. S.
Government
securities
4.8

16.3
90. 6
69. 2
62.6
65. 1
62.5
63.3
62.8
62.6
63.0
62. 2
60. 9
62. 0
63.2
63.0
64.4
66. 7
66. 8

Other
securities
8. 7
7. 1
7. 3

9.0
9.2
9.4
9.4
9.2

9. 1
9.2

9. 1
9. 1

9.2
9.2

9. 3
9. 5

9.8

10. 0
10. 2

in September, the total money supply fell slightly.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

S I L U O N S OF DOLLARS

00

200

TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY
( EXCLUDING U.S. GOV'T. DEPOSITS)

75

-— *^

\

50 _
TUv-E: DEPOSITS
4

25

—

^

«—: *~*»

00

vs^r ^^*S°'*l0^'ir'T^^

_vjr77~T,_"
Or-

^WW^*^***5**^"**

„.] ... .. ~T7l
„

~ , J ,1^"'
j"""^.'

i
1

1

i

n

.

V-.

~

„..

ADJUSTED DEMAND ?E^)S iTS <

:

i

*

50
i

!

1

** -

*9*>4*

25

"Spf^**"****!*^^

>vz.^r^r ,

CURRENCY CUTSiDE B A W K b
v*

"*»*M

V

0
1939

1943

1946

•>

.,«, ac«. r-,.- •,*, M

'

•)

_

' '

^

-

1947

1948

J

F

M

A

M

END OF YEAR

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

'9^7

J

J

A

S

O

N

O

J

F

M

1943

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

K

D

1949

END OF MONTH
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.




™>i-im r- r

[Billions of dollars]
Total money
supply

End of period
1939
1943
1946
1947
19481948: August _
September
October
November
December
1949: January
Febriiiiry
March. _
April
May
tt«j _
_
June_
July
August
September 3 _ _ _ _

_ _ _ _ _

_

„
_______

_ _ _ _ _ _

_ _ _

__

_ _ „ _

63.3
112,4
1(>4. 0
170. 0
169. 1
160. 7
166. 9
1G8. 1
168. 1
169. 1
168. 2
16(1 3
164. 2
165. 5
165. 7
165. 6
1 66. 3
1^6. 9
166, 6

Currency
outside
banks
6.4
1R. 8
26. 7
26. 5
26. 1
25. 6
25. 7
25. 7
25. 9
26. 1
25.2
25. 1
25. 1
24.9
25.0
25. 0
24.9
25. 1
24. 9

Adjusted
demand
deposits 1
29. 8
GO. 8
83. 3
87. 1
85. 5
83. 8
83. 9
85. 1
85. 2
85. 5
85. 4
83. 4
81. 1
82. 4
82. 6
82. 2
83. 1
83. 4
83. 3

Time
deposits

2

27. 1
32. 7
54. 0
f>6. 4
57. 5
57. 3
57. 3
57. 3
57. 0
57. 5
57.6
57. 8
58. 0
58. 1
58. 2
58. 4
58. 4
58. 3
58. 4

1

Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Go\ r ernment. less cash items in process of collection.
2
Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System.
8
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

31

FEDERAL CAS5H RECEIPTS FROM
AND
TS TO THE PUBLIC
The cash deficit of about S400 million for the 3rd quarter compares with a surplus of $1.3 billion for
the same quarter of 1948.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1 6

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1 6
^CASH RECEIPTS
n

W-

r.A<;M P/SYMPWTC;

1 2

/

^|:;::::::::1

8 .

^«J::::;::::I

!

f^i

F&TS

Iff ,.ft: rJ

'jL,

"AV^

'"Si

""F'-i

~ lfer~
'. p — / ^~M::-'-: H
p!;::
'^x-xxt
ife: tjfe

&

:

,^;'%'' •'•'•'

: : :

^V'iv'v'-

H
i

'''fffi'. :. . .

«
I

g|>:v:-

0

I ','-':•; ' vXv!

H
i

»•>•:•>•

Sfl

f-rf:^

i

2 | 946 3

:

:

4

;'; f|-X;X;
2

SX-X-3

I ' J- '•"•:•

—

:

•;^4|-. .' X

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'.'I /:•;•:•;

jp;

''»•'• •'•'

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:

}
p' '•

?

-:••<:•* •:::: —
^
::::

:.::\

:f|

^i

1947

3

.'/•JX-X-Hi

—

i
|!i
pfi

1i i
,fl
/' fx-.-x?

ife

B

11

Ii

4

2

• .VxJvXy

l
l

Pljt

is

Ii ^i

di

5.,L-i

K-'^;i:::::y

1948 °

;•;•••

•': :^.:::::-:H —

:;fi

yii
III

•••::.-

*

[—
; • :.;:::

^

?

:

^-

b

'y. .:•:•.
'/'•i: |

^

.'•:•:•

—

—

I
P
-P'ii;i.
ft

1
' /•:•:

':;-•:
— fc^

'•••:•'•:
^:

8

4

i
O

2

4

1949

3

4

+8

4-8

EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS
ffl

m
x/^t

0

PI
PI
«JL^I«.»«JLd
"
~ LI "
«•'•— — ••- *^-t-

_^g___
U

n^

1
f

•-

.1

i

^ l

k^^i

S

f-^J

bi^J

EXCESS CF CASH PAYMENTS

U

0

0

U "

_4

-a.

1

2

|9^g 3

4

i

2

1947

3

2

4
CALENDAR

1948

3

4

\

2

1949

3

YEARS

SOURCE: BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMEWT.

[Millions of dollars]
Calendar years

Calendar year total:
1946
1947
1948
Quarterly total, not adjusted for seasonal:
1946: Third quarter
Fourth quarter
_ _ _ _ _
1947: First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
_
1948: First quarter
_ _
Second quarter
Third ouarter
Fourth quarter
_ __
1949: First quarter
Second quarter
_
Third quarter 2
_
. .
_ _ _ _ _ _

Federal cash
receipts from
the public 1

Federal cash
payments to
the public 1

41, 426
44, 279
44, 920

41, 372
38, 584
36, 954

+ 54
+ 5, 695
+ 7,967

9, 702
9, 630
14, 345
9, 847
10, 220
9, 869
15, 037
10, 238
10, 085
9, 560
13, 122
8,814
10, 143

8,449
8,671
9, 163
10, 628
10,257
8,536
8,637
9,033
8,798
10, 486
9, 964
11,355
10,528

+ 1, 252
+ 959
+ 5, 182
-781
— 37
+ 1, 331
+ 6,400
+ 1, 205
+ 1, 287
-925
+ 3, 158
-2, 541
-385

Excess of receipts (-f) or
payments ( — )

1
Pa37ments of refunds of Government receipts are now reported as deductions from total receipts; previously,
they were reported as expenditures.
a
Preliminary estimates based on incomplete data.
NOTE.-—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget.




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4