Full text of Economic Indicators : November 1949
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LSI session Economic Indicator; Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1949 JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT (Created pursoaot to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming, Chairman EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey, Vice Chairman FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas JOHN J. SPARKMAN, Alabama WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois FRANK BUCHANAN, Pennsylvania ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts THEODOEE J. KEEPS, Staff Director GROVER W. ENSLEY, Associate Staff Director JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sx CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S. J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Committee on the Economic Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Committee on the Economic Report; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. To the Members of Congress: From the time the Joint Committee on the Economic Report was established its members realized that one of its basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture of current economic trends and developments. Fortunately, the joint committee found that Economic Indicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiled monthly by the Council of Economic Advisers, admirably filled this need. While this material was prepared originally for the use of the President, the Council, and other officials in the executive offices, the Council made it available to the joint committee. Other Members of Congress also expressed an interest in being able to obtain a quick picture of current economic facts without having to go through voluminous and specialized documents. In addition businessmen, farm leaders, labor organizations, and representatives of the press and radio indicated their desire for this information. Accordingly, the joint committee provided the Congress and the public with a limited number of copies of Economic Indicators as a committee print pending final action on authorizing the publication on a more permanent basis. As is indicated above such legislation has now been passed and the committee will issue the report on a regular monthly basis. Comments or suggestions with respect to possible improvements in this presentation will always be welcome. Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report. Letter o£ Transmittal Hon. JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report, United States Congress, Washington, D. C. DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the Joint Committee on the Economic Report in making Economic Indicators available to the Congress as a whole and to the general public, in accordance with Public Law 120, Eightyfirst Congress. In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has found it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts showing current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a better position to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the improvement and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services. In this undertaking the Council has the full cooperation of the several agencies of the Federal Government that collect statistical material. In many cases these agencies supply advance estimates for use in Economic Indicators. While the charts are drawn through the courtesy of the Graphics Unit in the Office of the Secretary of Commerce, the Council takes complete responsibility for the graphic presentation. This material has proven useful to the President, the Council, the executive departments, and the Congress. Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and consumer organizations with whom we regularly consult. We believe that the Congress is performing a service of real value by making this material available. Sincerely yours. Acting Chairman. / ( m Contents THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET Page The Nation's Economic Budget 1 PRICES Consumers1 Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers Stock Prices , 2 3 4 5 EMPLOYMENT Labor Force Nonagricultural Employment—Selected Industries Average Weekly Hours—Selected Industries Work Stoppages 6 7 8 9 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Weekly Production—Selected Indicators Production of Selected Durable Manufactures Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures New Construction New Housing Starts Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment New Corporate Security Issues Inventories and Sales Merchandise Exports and Imports 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 PURCHASING POWER National Income Corporate Profits Personal Income Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving Per Capita Income Average Hourly Earnings—Selected Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Selected Industries Farm Income , Personal Consumption Expenditures Consumer Credit 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE Bank Loans and Investments Money Supply Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public IV 30 31 32 NJiTIOH'S Economic a c t i v i t y changed little between the 2nd and 3rd quarters, inventories were liquidated at a less rapid rate, while other business investment remained at about the same level. Consumer income and expenditures dropped moderately. 1 9 4 9 , 2 n d Quarter TOTAL EXCESS OF EXPENDITURES (-), RECEIPTS ( (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)^ (Gross National Product) BUSINESS EXCESS OF INVESTMENT INTERNATIONAL EXCESS OF INVESTMENT GOVERNMENT (Federal, state and local) CASH DEFICIT 1949, TOTAL 3rd Quarter (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) (Gross National Product) CONSUMER SAVING BUSINESS EXCESS OF INVESTMENT INTERNATIONAL EXCESS OF RECEIPTS GOVERNMtNT ( Federal, state and local) CASH DEFICIT B Transfer payments^ ANNUAL R A T E S , S E A S O N A L L Y ADJUSTED. SOURCE: SEE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PREiiC'iNT, JULY 1949, APPENDIX A. PRICES CONSUMERS' PRICES Consumers' prices increased again in September, returning to the June level. All retail prices, except apparel, rose with the largest increases in prices of food and fuel and electricity. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE 120 100 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 •ALSO INCLUDES HOUSEFURNISHINGS, FUEL, ELECTRICITY, REFRIGERATION, AND MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES, NOT SHOWN ON CHART. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. [1935-39=100] Period 1939 monthly average 1940 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 month Iv average 1948 monthly average 1948: September October November ~ December 1949: January February March April May__ June July _ August September- All items ___ 99. 4 100. 2 105. 2 116. 5 123. 6 125. 5 128. 4 139. 3 159. 2 171. 2 174. 5 173. 6 172. 2 171. 4 170. 9 169. 0 169. 5 169. 7 169. 2 169. 6 168. 5 168. 8 169. 6 Food 95. 2 96. 6 105. 5 123. 9 138. 0 136. 1 139. 1 159. 6 193. 8 210. 2 215. 2 211. 5 207. 5 205. 0 204. 8 199. 7 201. 6 202. 8 202. 4 204. 3 201. 7 202. 6 204. 2 NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities. Source: Department of Labor. Apparel 100. 5 101. 7 106. 3 124. 2 129. 7 138 8 145. 9 160. 2 185. 8 198 0 201. 0 201. 6 201. 4 200. 4 196. 5 195. 1 193. 9 192. 5 191. 3 190. 3 188. 5 187. 4 187. 2 Rent 104. 3 104. 6 106. 2 108. 5 108. 0 108 2 108. 3 108 6 111. 2 117. 4 118 5 118. 7 118 8 119. 5 119. 7 119. 9 120. 1 120. 3 120. 4 120. 6 120. 7 120. 8 121. 2 Fuel, electricity, and refrigeration House furnishings 99. 0 99. 7 102. 2 105. 4 107. 7 109. 8 110. 3 112. 4 121. 1 133. 9 137. 3 137. 8 137. 9 137. 8 138. 2 138. 8 138. 9 137. 4 135. 4 135. 6 135. 6 135. 8 137. 0 101. 3 100. 5 107. 3 122. 2 125. 6 136. 4 145. 8 159. 2 184. 4 195. 8 198. 1 198. 8 198. 7 198. 6 196. 5 195. 6 193. 8 191. 9 189. 5 187. 3 186. 8 184. 8 185. 6 Miscellaneous 100. 7 101. 1 104. 0 110. 9 115. 8 121. 3 124. 1 128. 8 139. 9 149. 9 152. 7 153. 7 153. 9 154. 0 154. 1 154. 1 154. 4 154. 6 154. 5 154. 2 154. 3 154. 8 155. 2 Wholesale prices showed little net change from the end of September to the end of October. Declines in tarm end industrial prices were offset by increases in food prices. PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE 200 H 180 -"i 160 --*/=-%— 120 1940 SOURCE: 1941 1942 DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. [1926=100] 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1946 monthly average June __ 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948- September October >_ __ November December 1949: January February March April May June Julv August September _ October l Week ended: September 27 __ > October 4 11 _ __ __ ___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ 18 25 __ __ November 12 1 Estimate based on change in weekly index. Data became available after chart was prepared. Source: Department of Labor. 2 87 3 98. 8 121 1 112. 9 152. 1 165. 1 168 9 165. 4 164 0 162. 4 160 6 158 1 158 4 156 9 155 7 154 5 153 5 152 9 153 7 152 4 82 4 105 9 148 9 140. 1 181 2 188. 3 189 9 183 5 180 8 177 3 172 5 168 3 171 5 170 5 171. 2 168 8 166 2 162 3 163 1 160 4 82. 7 99. 6 130. 7 112. 9 168. 7 179. 1 186. 9 178. 2 174. 3 170. 2 165. 8 161. 5 1G2 9 162. 9 163. 8 162. 4 161. 3 160. 6 162. 0 160. 5 Other than farm products and foods 89. 0 95. 5 109. 5 105. 6 135. 2 151. 0 153. 6 153. 4 153. 6 153. 1 152. 9 151. 8 150. 7 148.9 146. 8 145. 6 145. 0 145. 0 145. 5 145. 1 152 152 152 152 152 151 159 161 160 159 158 156 158. 9 159. 7 159. 9 160. 5 161. 7 158. 6 145. 3 1 45. 0 145. 0 144. 9 144. 8 144. 6 All commodities Period Farm products 4 3 1 1 5 4 8 3 1 6 5 0 Foods t PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Form prices turned down again from September to October, with more than seasonal decreases in hogs and poultry, and contraseasonal decreases in eggs and truck crops. PERCENT OF'I9IO-I4 AVERAGE 350 PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE 350 PRICES RECEIVED 300 250 PRICES PAID (INCU. INTEREST, TAXES) 200 150 150 PARITY RATIO* 100 I 1939 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 I I I I J F M A M J I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J 1947 1948 I I I I J A S O N O 1949 * RATIO OF PRICES RECEIVED TO PRICES PAID, INTEREST, AND TAXES. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Prices paid by Prices (includ- Parity ratio * received l farmers ing interest3 by farmers and taxes) Period 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948: September October November. December 1949 : January February March April . Mav._ _ _ June July August September October 1 August 1909-July 3 1910-14=100. 3 _ _ _ . __ _ _ _ _ 77 95 124 159 192 195 202 233 278 287 124 132 150 162 169 172 193 231 249 94 106 119 116 117 121 120 115 290 277 271 268 250 249 247 247 116 111 109 108 268 258 261 260 256 252 249 245 249 243 248 245 246 246 245 245 244 243 242 240 108 105 106 106 104 103 102 101 103 101 1914=»100. Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, and taxes. Source: Department of Agriculture. STOCK PRICES Stock prices in October continued the advance that began in June. Industrials and utilities advanced to new 1949 peaks, with industrials showing the greatest strength. Railroads were unable to hold their early October peaks. PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 AVERAGE 175 193940 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 J F M A M j A s o N 1947 1949 1948 SOURCE: STANDARD AND POOR'S CORPORATION. [1935-39 = 100] Combined index x Period Weekly average: 1939 1942 1946 1948 1948: September October NovemberDecember 1949: January February March April May June July August September Ontobftr Week ended: Oo.tohpr 5 12 19 26 November 2 2 . -_ .-» . . ^ __ _ -, Industrials Railroads 94.2 69.4 139.9 124.4 125.7 127.8 120.4 119.4 121.0 117.2 118.0 118. 5 117. 7 112. 0 117.8 121. 9 123.8 127.3 94. 8 71.3 143.4 130.6 131.7 134.3 126.4 125.5 127.3 122. 7 123.7 124. 2 123.4 117.0 123.4 128. 2 130.3 134. 4 74.7 66. 1 143. 0 114. 7 120.4 120.9 108.8 105.8 105.9 99.6 97.4 97. 1 95. 8 88. 4 90. 6 94. 6 95. 1 97. 6 126.0 127. 4 127. 2 128. 7 130.3 132. 7 134. 4 134.2 136. 1 138.0 97. 1 99. 1 97. 4 96. 9 96. 9 Utilities 98. 6 61.3 120.2 96.2 97.3 97.4 94.2 92.9 94.2 94.4 95.3 96. 1 95.3 93. 0 95.4 98. 5 100.0 101.2 100. 101. 101. 101. 102. 8 3 3 5 1 1 Combined index prior to June 23, 1948. was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials, 20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads, and 31 utilities. 2 Data became available after chart was prepared. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation. 350—49 EMPLOYMENT LABOR FORCE A small increase in nonagricultural employment in October was more than offset by a decline in agricultural employment. The unemployment figure increased slightly, due to the inclusion of some workers who were on strike and who indicated they were looking for work. Ordinarily persons on strike are classified as employed. MILLIONS OF PERSONS 70 MILLIONS OF PERSONS 70 Gssa UNEMPLOYMENT H 60 n _^_ __ ^^^^^^^ IP w>< m • • %$, ysfly Wt. ^X- — s^. ^—<^E^ —^I^^^^^^fe llii^^^^^^Miiiii^^^^^^^^P ^Skfia^^fSAfiy'/^^^'^^^ W^^m^^^^^^mm^^^^^^^^^m ^^^^^^^^^^AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT ^^^^^^ jk^yf H 40 TOTAL '7%% y<t%7 m ^^^^^^^^^^^ ^ 60 ~ ^ 40 $$< 30 30 ; NONAGFRICULTURAL 20 - - 10 - - ~ EMPLOYMENT -i ' - o 1 1 I 1 1 I - 20 - 10 ? 1 A \ t t t i i 1 i i i '. i 1 1 i i i i I 1 I ill I 10 8 6 4 o IU - UNEMPLOYMENT— MAGNIFIED SC AL 8 - 6 - - 4 ~__^_^^ j F™I 0 1939 1944 1946 1947 t \ .1, i \ \ 1 I I 1 I 1948 J F M A M J J A S O N I f » ? [ 1 \ [ i i 1 I 1 1 Li t i t l9 "8 [Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over] Period 1939 monthly average 1944 monthly average___ 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948: September October November December 1949: January February March. April May June July August September October Total labor force, including armed forces 55, 600 65, 890 60, 820 61, 608 62, 748 63, 578 63, 166 63, 138 62, 828 61, 546 61, 896 62, 305 62, 327 63, 452 64, 866 65, 278 65, 104 64, 222 64, 021 Civilian employment 1 Total 45, 750 53, 960 55, 250 58, 027 59, 378 60, 312 60, 134 59, 893 59, 434 57, 414 57, 168 57, 647 57, 819 58, 694 59,619 59, 720 59, 947 59,411 59, 001 In nonagricultural industries 36, 140 45, 010 46, 930 49, 761 51, 405 51, 590 51,506 51, 932 52, 059 50, 651 50, 174 50, 254 49, 999 49, 720 49, 924 50, 073 51,441 51, 254 51, 290 In agriculture 9,610 8, 950 8,320 8, 266 7,973 8,723 8,627 7,961 7,375 6,763 6, 993 7,393 7, 820 8,974 9, 696 9,647 8,507 8, 158 7,710 Armed forces 370 11,260 3,300 1,440 1,307 1,366 1,391 1,414 1,453 1,468 1, 508 1,491 1,492 1,469 1,468 1,463 1,468 1,459 1,445 Unemployment 9,480 670 2,270 2, 142 2,064 1,899 1,642 1,831 1,941 2,664 3, 221 3, 167 3,016 3,289 3,778 4,095 3,689 3, 351 3,576 1 Includes part-time workers and those who had jobs but were not at work for such reasons as vacation, illness, bad wreather, temporary lay-off, and industrial disputes. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. - P 1 I ,1 D 194? MONTHLY A V E R A G E ^—— 0 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT - SELECTED INDUSTRIES Further increases in manufacturing employment, both durable and nondurable, occurred in September. Trade employment increased seasonally. MILLIONS OF WAGE AND S A L A R Y WORKERS MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS 8.0 9.0 DURABLE MANUFACTURING NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING 1948 1949 1949 L~ I | J I . F M I I A 1 I M J J 1 A 1 S 1 O or i i N D J i F 1 M A 1 M J J A S O N D TRADE CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION 10.0 1949 1948 1947 8.5 I d. ~1 oCL. _L L J [Thousands of wage and salary workers Manufacturing Period Total 1 JII COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1939 monthly average _ _ _ 1943 monthly average _ 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average _ 1948 monthly average __ 1948: August September October November _ __ December __ 1949: January _ February March _ __ _ _ April May June July _ August 3 3 September _ _ _ L _ _ „ _ _ ___ _ __ _ 10, 17, 14, 15, 15, 15, 15, 15, 15, 15, 14, 14, 14, 14, 13, 13, 13, 14, .14, 078 381 461 247 286 400 617 514 368 174 782 649 475 177 877 885 758 128 322 Durable goods (22) () (2) 8, 373 8,315 8,271 8, 360 8,393 8, 352 8, 258 8,044 7, 923 7, 819 7, 656 7,441 7, 396 7,257 7,301 7,391 Nondurable goods Contract construction (22) (2) () 6, 874 6, 970 7, 129 7,257 7, 121 7,016 6, 916 6,738 6, 726 6, 656 6, 521 6,436 6, 489 6,501 6, 827 6, 931 1, 150 1, 567 1, 661 1, 982 2, 165 2,384 2, 369 2,334 2, 287 2, 200 2,016 1, 926 1,947 2, 036 2, 137 2, 205 2,277 2, 338 2, 315 : Trade 6, 705 7,322 8, 815 9, 196 9, 491 9,366 9, 522 9, 654 9, 807 10, 273 9,388 9, 292 9, 310 9,478 9,342 9, 327 9, 206 9, 224 9,431 Finance and service 4, 610 5, 187 5, 994 6, 427 6,515 6,592 6, 574 6,531 6, 503 6,481 6,454 6, 447 6, 469 6, 525 6,567 6, 603 6, 630 6, 617 6, 603 Government Transportation and (Federal, public State, local) utilities 3,987 6,049 5, 607 5, 454 5,613 5, 533 5,668 5, 694 5,685 5, 994 5, 764 5,737 5,761 5,775 5, 813 5, 772 5, 738 5,763 5, 893 2, 912 3, 619 4,023 4, 122 4, 151 4, 213 4, 189 4, 188 4, 166 4, 158 4, 054 4,024 3,975 3, 991 4,021 4,030 4,007 3,993 3, 969 Mining 845 917 852 943 981 1,006 1,007 1,000 999 1,002 991 986 981 984 974 970 945 961 955 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during^the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, arid personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 6) which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. 2 Not available. 3 Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—These are revised series and do not agree with data previously published in Economic Indicators. Source: Department of Labor. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES Average weekly hours in both durable and nondurable manufacturing industries rose again in September. HOUF*S PER WEEK HOURS PER WEEK DURABLE MANUFACTURING NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING 42 42 40 — xXlK^/syvv 40 ^y 38 38 36 36 34 34 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1947 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1948 1949 1 1 1 1 1 1 I M 1 1 0 1 1111111111 1948 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1949 40 40 38 v~ v/~^ 36 ~J\r\^-AT)^~A 34 34 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1947 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1111111 111 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1949 1950 1948 0 i i i fi 1 i ii ii i iiii1iil li 1947 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1948 i i l i 1 1 1 l I 1 1 1949 1950 1 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Hours per week, selected industries 1 ] Manufacturing Period 1939 monthly average _ 1943 monthly average 1946 monthlv average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948: August _ _ __ September October November December 1949: January February March April _ Mav June _ _ Julv 3 August September 3 1 2 3 Total _ _ _ _ __ _ _ __ _ 37. 7 44. 9 40.4 40.4 40. 1 40. 1 39.8 40.0 39.8 40. 1 39.5 39. 4 39. 1 38.4 38.6 38. 8 38.8 39. 1 39.6 Durable goods (22) () (2) 40.6 40.5 40.6 40.0 40. 7 40.4 40. 7 40. 1 39.9 39. 5 39. 0 39.0 39.2 38.9 39.2 39. 6 Retail trade, Building merNondurable construction general chandise goods (2) (22) () 40. 1 39.6 39.5 39.6 39. 1 39.2 39.3 38.7 38.8 38.6 37. 6 38. 1 38. 5 38.7 38. 9 39.7 (2) (22) (2) () 37. 3 37.8 37.6 37.3 36.4 37.8 37.0 36. 5 36. 1 36.4 37. 2 37. 1 37. 1 37.2 2 () (2) (22) () (2) 36.3 36.6 37.4 36.3 36.0 35.8 37.5 36.5 36.3 36. 1 36.6 36.3 36.8 37.4 36.9 For production and related workers. Not available. Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—These are revised series and do not agree with data previously published in Economic Indicators. Source: Department of Labor. 8 II 1950 RETAIL TRADE- GENERAL MERCHANDISE 42 36 r\^ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1947 42 * 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 | 1 1 1950 BUILDING CONSTRUCTION 38 ^^^l ^->^_^^ WORK STOPPAGES Time lost from work stoppages in September was greater than during any month since the spring of 1948. MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE I 5 MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE 15 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 194? 194 1949 1947 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. Man-days idle during period Period 1939 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 . 1948: AugustSeptember October November December 1949: January * 1 February March l April l > „ Mav June 1._ July L August '_ September 1 Monthly average (thousands) 1 1,484 1,921 349 1,125 727 3,169 9,667 2,883 2,842 2, 100 2,540 2,060 1,910 713 800 650 3,600 1,800 3,200 4, 600 2, 100 2,000 6,350 Preliminary estimate. Source: Department of Labor, Workers involved in stoppages Beginning Percent of in estimated period working time (thousands) 0. 28 . 32 .05 . 15 .09 .47 1.43 . 41 .37 .26 .33 .27 .26 .09 . 11 . 10 .46 .25 .45 . 61 .31 .26 .88 1, 171 2,363 840 1, 981 2, 116 3,467 4,600 2, 170 1,960 143 158 110 111 40 70 80 500 175 250 575 110 150 510 In effect during month (thousands) 232 267 194 189 93 110 120 540 225 320 660 225 250 610 Number of stoppages Beginning in period 2,613 4,288 2,968 3,752 4,956 4,750 4,985 3,693 3,419 355 299 256 216 144 225 225 275 400 450 375 300 375 275 In effect during month 603 553 468 388 283 400 350 400 500 600 550 525 550 475 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial production increased slightly in September with a further increase in manufactures more than offsetting the 8 percent drop in minerals. Preliminary estimates for October indicate a 10 percent drop in the total index, chiefly as a result of the steel strike. PERCF.NT OF 1935-33 AVERAGE Points in Total Index 250 - 250 200 200 150 150 100 50 1949 SOURCE:BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE F E D E R A L RESERVE SYSTEM ECONOMIC AoVlSERS [1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted] Points in total index, 1935-39 average for total=100 Indexes, 1935-39=100 Period 1935—39 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthlv average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948: September October _ . November December. 1949: January February _ _ __ _ March _ _ April _ __ Mav June. _ _ July _ August 1 September October L _ _ Manufactures Total industrial Nondura- Minerals production Total Durable goods ble goods 100 239 203 170 187 192 192 195 195 192 191 189 184 179 174 169 161 170 172 155 100 258 214 177 194 198 199 202 201 199 198 196 193 184 179 176 168 177 182 162 100 360 274 192 220 225 225 231 229 231 227 225 223 212 201 194 185 192 197 151 1 Preliminary estimate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 10 for FRASER Digitized 100 176 166 165 172 177 178 179 178 173 175 173 168 162 161 161 154 165 170 172 100 132 137 134 149 155 156 158 161 156 149 149 136 148 145 133 123 129 119 114 Manufactures Durable goods 38 136 104 73 83 85 85 87 87 87 86 85 84 81 76 74 70 73 75 57 Nondura- Minerals ble goods 47 83 78 77 81 83 83 84 83 81 82 81 79 76 75 75 72 77 79 81 15 20 21 21 23 24 24 24 25 24 23 23 21 23 22 20 19 20 18 17 WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORS Work stoppages in steel and bituminous coal industries reduced output in these industries sharply in October, Electric power production was close to that of a year ago. The number of cars and trucks being turned out began to drop slowly. BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS MILLIONS or TONS 3 STEEL ELECTRIC POWER T949 1949 "1947 I A S 0 N I I I | THOUSANDS MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS 3.0 M | D A M SOURCES: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL J J A INSTITUTE, S O N Weekly average '• 1947 1948 . . _ -_ _ _ 1949: Oct. 1 8 • 15 22 29 Nov. 5 _ _ M A M J A EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS. Period Week ended: 1948: Oct. 2 9_ 16 23 30 _ Nov. 6 F D _ S O N COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Steel (thousands of net tons) Electric power, by utilities (millions of kilowatt-hours) Bituminous coal (thousands of short tons) l 1 637 1, 700 4, 821 5, 300 2,008 1,906 90, 860 100, 670 1 738 1, 757 1, 775 1, 786 1, 783 1 783 5, 449 5,482 5, 482 5, 539 5, 555 5, 564 2,009 2,056 2,077 2, 088 2, 134 2,020 115, 113, 118, 116, 110, 112, 1 560 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 151 172 172 166 162 521 450 481 430 433 D Cars and trucks (number) 304 368 398 423 2462 2 469 312 241 968 956 791 144, 285 141, 032 139, 918 135, 656 134, 208 116,929 1 2 Daily average for week. Data became available after chart was prepared. Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, and Ward's Automotive Reports. 11 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE MANUFACTURES Output of steel and lumber in September was about the same as in August. Machinery production increased about 4 percent, the first upturn in 9 months. Nonferrous metals rose II percent. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE LUMBER AND 1 1 1 100 1 I I I I I I I I M I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I M I I I I I I I 40 42 44- 46 48 1947 1948 100 t-fl I 40 1949 I I I 42 MACHINERY I 44 I PRODUCTS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONTHLY AVERAGE I I I 46 48 L I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1947 1948 1949 NONFERROUS METALS AND PRODUCTS 350 300 200 150 100 40 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 40 42 1949 44 46 48 1948 J947 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. [1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted] Iron and steel Period 1935-39 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948: August September October November December 1949: January February M arch April May June July. August September 1 _ _ _ __ . . __ __ l 12 Machinery Nonferrous metals and products 100 208 183 150 195 208 100 129 109 131 143 145 100 443 343 240 276 277 100 267 204 157 187 193 207 214 221 224 223 148 143 147 145 143 271 273 277 276 277 186 192 192 187 184 228 232 233 219 204 177 156 178 179 129 123 129 126 126 123 115 126 128 268 262 252 240 232 225 217 215 223 183 185 183 167 145 133 127 141 157 Preliminary estimate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Lumber and products j PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE MANUFACTURES Activity in textile industries continued to increase in September. Production of most other nondurable goods were above their August rates. TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS 300 300 MONTHLY 200 200 too 0 j —" ! 1 40 1 1 42 1 1 44 1 ..[. 1... 46 ^^P^-W 100 1 ! ! I I 1 i 1 i 1 1 i 1 I 1 I I 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1947 1948 1949 48 0 AVERAGE A/ v f*~S*+*\S* J ~" i i i i i i i i i 40 42 44 46 48 MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS pv^_ I 1 II 1 1 1 i ! 1 1 ! 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 11 1 1! 1947 r948 1949 CHEMICAL PRODUCTS 400 400 MONTHLY A AVERAGE f% 300 300 •« 200 200 ^-^ 1— 1— 100 0 40 42 44 1 I I i I 1 1 i 11 1 ! 11 1 1 1 1 ! ! 11 1947 1948 46 48 1 I ! 1 1 I 1 I! 1949 I ! .• -*—••" •--' \_ / / 100 0 1 | 40 | | 42 | | 44 | | | 46 48 1! 1 i 1 1 I i 1 1 i 1 1 1 ! i i 1! 1 1 1 1947 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1948 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 1949 C O U N C I L OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S [1935-39= 100, seasonally adjusted] Textiles and products Period Petroleum and coal products Manufactured food products Chemical products 1935—39 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average - 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 100 153 146 162 163 169 100 185 235 173 193 218 100 145 151 150 157 159 100 384 284 236 251 254 1948: August September October November December 166 168 167 164 156 221 207 217 227 231 156 163 161 159 158 259 257 255 257 257 160 157 142 129 123 126 120 140 155 228 221 213 209 207 202 198 204 206 160 162 162 162 162 165 161 164 165 257 250 245 237 234 231 226 228 230 1949: January February... _ March. April May-June July August_ September 1 _ _ _ _ . _ _ ._ 1 Preliminary estimate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Preserve System. 98350—49 3 13 NEW CONSTRUCTION New construction showed continued strength in October with a less than seasonal drop of 2 percent. MILLIONS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF DOLLARS 2,000 2,000 1,500 1,500 —; »,000 \ 1,000 I \ \1 1939 i A 1942 1944 1946 1947 1948 M J J A S 1949 ^INCLUDES PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF C O M M E R C E AND DEPARTMENT OF L A B O R COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] Private construction Period 1939 monthly average. 1942 monthly average 1944 monthly average ._ 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average _ 1948 monthly average 1948: August September October November _ _ December 1949: January February _ _ March April _ » _ _ _ May June _ Julv August SeptemberOctober 2 _ _ _ _ _ 14for FRASER Digitized 1 2 Total new construction 526 1, 118 345 871 1, 194 1,565 1,934 1,901 1,814 1, 646 1,447 1,293 1, 172 1,267 1,378 1,585 1,745 1,841 1,888 1,892 1.856 Total private Residential (nonfarm) 317 251 152 688 932 1,214 1,454 1,427 1,355 1,256 1, 129 1,002 905 951 997 1,117 1,239 1,309 1, 328 1,338 1. 324 Includes public residential construction. Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor. 176 110 45 265 438 602 720 707 670 615 547 475 400 420 445 530 600 650 660 680 695 Other 141 141 107 422 493 612 734 720 685 641 582 527 505 531 552 587 639 659 668 658 629 Federal, State, and local * 208 867 193 184 262 351 480 474 459 390 318 291 267 316 381 468 506 532 560 554 532 NEW HOUSING STARTS Housing starts continued to hold at high levels in September and also in October, according to preliminary indications. Thus far this year, there has been no repetition of last year's decline. THOUSANDS OF UNITS 125 THOUSANDS OF UNITS 125 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. New nonfarm units started Month 1947 January _ February March April - _ __ __ ___ _ _ __ May June -_ July August September October November December Total ______ -_ ________ Monthly average. _ __ 1948 39, 300 42, 800 56, 000 67, 100 72, 900 77, 200 81, 100 86, 300 93,800 94, 000 79, 700 58, 800 53, 500 50, 100 76, 400 99, 500 100, 300 97, 800 95, 000 86, 600 82, 200 73, 400 63, 600 52, 900 849, 000 931, 300 70, 750 77, 600 1949 50, 000 50, 400 69, 400 88, 300 95, 400 95, 500 1 96, 000 1 98, 000 1 100, 000 1 Preliminary estimate. Source: Department of Labor. 15 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Nonagricultural business firms reported in a recent SEC-Commerce survey expected expenditures of $17,9 billion on new plant and equipment for 1949. Actual expenditures for 1st half of this year were I percent above 1st half of 1948 but estimate for 2nd half was about 14 percent under actual expenditures for the corresponding period last year. BULLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 BILLIONS OF DO ANN UAL TOTALS TRANSPORTATION AND ELECTRIC AND GAS FUTILITIES — 1939 * 1941 NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL — — — 0 1945 VARIATION. SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE C O M M I S S I O N AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal] Period Total i Manufacturing Mining Transportation Railroad 1939 1941 1945 1947 1948 3 1949 _ _ _ _ ___ 1947: Third quarter. __ ___ Fourth quarter 1948: First quarter Second quarter. Third quarter Fourth quarter _ __ 1949: First quarter Second quarter3 Third quarter _ _ __ _ Fourth quarter 3 1 2 3 5,200 8, 190 6, 630 16, 180 19, 230 17, 920 16, 560 19, 760 16, 680 19, 280 19, 320 21, 640 17, 840 18, 640 18, 200 17, 000 1,930 3,400 3,210 7,460 8,340 7, 120 7,480 9, 160 7,200 8,560 8, 360 9,280 7,400 7,520 7,080 6,480 380 680 440 690 800 740 720 840 720 800 800 880 760 760 720 680 280 560 550 910 1,320 1,360 920 1,200 1,080 1, 240 1,320 1, 640 1,440 1,520 1,360 1, 120 Other 280 340 320 800 700 540 800 760 720 760 680 680 520 560 560 520 Electric and Commercial miscelgas utilities and laneous 2 480 710 630 1,900 2,680 3, 100 2,000 2,480 2,000 2,560 2, 760 3,400 2,720 3, 120 3,240 3, 320 1,850 2,490 1,480 4,430 5,390 5,080 4,640 5,360 4, 960 5,360 5,440 5, 760 5,040 5, 160 5,200 4,960 Excludes agriculture. Commercial and miscellaneous composed of trade, service, finance, and communication. Estimates for third quarter are based on preliminary estimates of business in July; fourth quarter figures are based on anticipated capital expenditures. NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agrieultuial investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other data. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000. Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted). NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES After reaching the postwar peak (quarterly rate) during the 2nd quarter of this year, corporate issues fell substantially in the 3rd quarter, reflecting the usual seasonal movement. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2:'0 2.0 1939 1943 1946 1947 1948 SOURCE: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION. [Millions of dollars] Proposed uses of net proceeds Estimated net proceeds Period New money Total 1943 quarterly average 1946 quarterly average - 1948 quarterly average - 1947* Third quarter 1948" First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949* First quarter Third quarter ^ - - - - .. - Plant and equipment Working capital Retirement of debt and stock * 529 287 1,475 1,689 1,617 1,748 81 77 270 820 1, 148 1,491 43 35 159 529 852 1,060 39 42 111 291 296 431 448 210 1,206 869 469 257 1,374 2,311 884 2,000 692 1,654 192 347 490 310 1,769 1, 817 1,352 2, 054 1, 511 1,493 1,087 1,874 918 1, 091 774 1,459 593 402 314 415 260 325 265 180 1,056 2,311 807 850 1,968 688 699 1,615 599 152 353 89 206 343 119 1 2 Includes small amount for other purposes. Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Securities and Exchange Commission. 17 INVENTORIES AND SALES September soles of manufacturers and retailers were moderately higher than August, after allowance for seasonal fluctuation. Liquidation of manufacturers' inventories continued but at a slower rate than in recent months. BILL IONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS WHOLESALE RETAIL 20 20 INVEh T( )RIES >•-• INVE Ml ORiES 1 0 .* 1 0 ••••*••••••„. ....:. "' .X ""^/ \ALES L 0 I I 40 BILL IONS I ! 42 1 1 44 1 1 46 1 1 1 1 M 1 11 I 1 I 1 I ! 1 i 48 1947 1 1 M II 1 M 1948 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 40 1949 PERCE ^JT OF DOLLARS 1 42 1 1 44 ! 1 1 46 1 1 ! M 48 1 1 1 1 ! 1 11 1947 1 1 i 1 1 111 I M 1948 i i i l l 1 i i 11 i 1949 OF 1935-1939 A V E R A G E MANUFACTURERS DEPARTMENT STORES 40 400 INVE MT ORIES V \ 30 ,••-"• > \L IS 300 " ^ ^/ v >^\ ^ ,•"*•. \J^ X/ / 20 •1 0 0 /* / /rX^A / 42 44 46 48 j "f~~'^ L ES , , , . , I , I , M 1947 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1948 1 1111I1 1 111 //INVEf TC)RIES 200 1 00 11ii11111 40 -w „— ^^s "* 0 / 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 40 1949 42 44 46 i 1 1 I i 1 1 1 I lI i n u l l MI i M i l l ! II 1947 1948 1949 48 OURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FE DERAL RES ERVE SYSTEM Period COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Retail Wholesale Inventories l Sales 2 Inventories 1 Manufacturers Sales 2 Inventories ] Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 939 __ _ _ _ 941 -_ _- . 9 4 3 _ _ _ _ _ 945 _ __ 946 _ _ _ _ _ _-_ __ _ _. 947 948 __ _ _ _ _ _ 948* August September October _ _ _ November December _ _ _ 949* January February March April _ _ _ May _ _ _ June July ___ August 5 SeDtember _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1 2 3 4 8 3, 175 4, 182 3,684 4,638 6, 665 8,653 9,511 9,420 9,581 9, 730 9,714 9,511 9,464 9,479 9,293 9,330 9, 153 9,002 9,074 9,026 9, 151 2,505 3,620 4,273 4, 983 6,601 7, 754 8,355 8,522 8,489 8, 083 8,236 8, 158 7,723 7,680 7, 890 7,422 7,498 7,718 7, 158 7,703 7,571 5,532 7, 630 7,361 7,543 11, 226 13, 221 14, 969 14, 490 14, 877 14, 937 15, 027 14, 969 14, 659 14, 479 14, 700 14, 458 14, 139 14, 182 13, 862 13,932 14, 422 3, 504 4,624 5, 277 6,315 8,358 9,909 10, 837 11,030 10, 961 10, 899 10, 763 10, 987 10, 592 10, 686 10, 705 10, 790 10, 738 10, 663 10, 521 10, 679 10, 740 Sales 2 L8 Department stores Inventories 3 Sales 3 1935-39 = 100, seasonally adjusted 4 11,465 16, 960 20, 098 18, 390 24, 818 29, 817 34, 066 32, 841 33, 380 33, 528 33, 810 34, 066 34, 409 34, 408 34, 223 34, 018 33, 565 33, 250 32, 367 31,656 31, 200 5,099 8, 168 12, 822 12, 873 12, 841 17, 076 19, 028 19, 652 19, 902 18, 978 19, 648 19, 065 17, 880 18, 175 18, 451 17, 643 17, 741 17, 990 17, 114 18, 689 19, 200 Book value, end of period. Monthly average for year and total for month. Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for month and retail book value of inventories, end of period. All dollar figures, except for retail sales, have been revised and do not agree with previously published data. Preliminary estimates. Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 1 M 102 131 155 166 213 255 291 285 290 290 296 291 278 276 283 280 273 265 256 253 263 106 133 168 207 264 286 302 309 309 308 289 305 295 281 277 294 292 285 280 283 289 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS Imports in September recovered another 8 percent for the second successive month but were still little more than in June, when they were at the lowest level in a year and a half. Exports also rose slightly. MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,600 1600 MONTHLY AVERAGES 1,400 - 1,400 L200 1,200 1,000 - 1,000 800 800 600 - 600 400 400 200 - 200 1943 1936-38 1946 1947 F 1943 M A M J J A S O N D 1949 ; FOR OCCUPIED AREAS. ** RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT.OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY [Millions of dollars] Exports l Period 1936-38 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthlv average _ _ 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average <_ 1948 monthly average 247 1,080 877 849 _ 1948: Augupt September.. October November. _ December 990 926 Mav 1, 021 _ _ 1949: January February _ _ _ March April _ June _ July August _ September 1,278 1,051 820 1, 285 1, 094 1, 032 1, 159 1, 148 1, 077 1, 304 ___ _ _ _ 897 881 904 Imports a Excess of exports 207 282 346 410 478 594 40 798 531 439 801 457 606 560 600 554 720 384 366 421 266 565 590 568 632 534 539 527 456 491 530 504 464 527 614 538 578 441 390 374 1 1 Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas. Recorded general merchandise imports. Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy. 19 PURCHASING POWER NATIONAL INCOME Motional income continued to decline in 3rd quarter, according to preliminary estimates. Compensation of employees held steady, while farm income ( part of proprietors' and rental) showed a significant drop. BILLI ONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOL.LARS 250 250 ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL TOTALS TOTAL NAT IONAL INCOIV _-»-*—'~"~*"*^ E V-^^^ _JX^ -—^ """H ss^ 200 ^ ^-~ 200 c^^^^^^v g^SS^*^ 2§§ >——^, CORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION: ADJUSTMENT: : ,• ; NET INTEREST: • PROPRIETORS^AND RENTAL INCOME : " v£/v<rf ^'''.X's •' *''&$£&:*''• *; : f ; ;-;/^Y" -'- 5^ " < '/ '/>• •' ' *'"•' "X- 1 50 150 , " ,' "/,,.:' &!<>£• -— l£ ' ^^^^«i*~^^'~S*t*anmm*ri~" - *Knr*a*ia*'aK*f^ - 1 00 100 - 'COMPENSATION OF! EMPLOYEES! 35S 50 50 1939 1944 IS47 1948 I 1 - _J i L L 0 1949 3 4 1 1947 2 F ..J J 3 4 1 1948 2 1 3* 1 1 4 0 2 I960 1949 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (except as noled). [Billions of dollars] Total national income Period 1939 1944 1946 1947 1948 . „ 72. 5 183. 8 179.6 201.7 226.2 Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment Compensation of employees Proprietors* and rental income Net interest 47.8 121. 2 117. 0 127. 6 140.3 14. 7 35. 5 41.3 45. 1 49. 5 4. 2 3. 1 3.0 3.4 3.8 Total 5.8 24.0 18.3 25.6 32.6 Profits before taxes Inventory valuation adjustment 6.5 24.3 23.6 31.6 34. 8 -0.7 -.3 -5.3 -6.0 -2.2 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter _ Fourth quarter 215. 1 224. 9 230.4 234.3 135. 1 137. 7 143. 3 144. 9 48. 0 50.4 49. 9 49. 7 3. 6 3.7 3.9 4. 1 28.5 33.0 33.3 35.7 33.0 35.0 36.6 34.5 -4.5 -2.0 -3.3 + 1.2 1949: First quarter l Second quarter Third quarter 2 226. 3 223.7 218. 7 142. 5 141.7 141. 2 47.8 46.7 43.6 4.2 4. 3 4. 3 31.8 31. 1 29. 6 29.4 26.4 26.0 + 2.3 +4.7 + 3.6 1 a 20 Preliminary estimates. Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). CORPORATE PROFITS According to preliminary estimates for the 3rd quarter, corporate profits were slightly below the 2nd quarter rate. When allowance is made for inventory valuation adjustment, the decline was more substantial. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4 0 40 ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED I960 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED) COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Period 1929.. 1939 1944 1946 1947 1948 _ - - Corporate profits before taxes Corporate tax liability 9.8 6.5 24. 3 23. 6 31.6 34.8 1.4 1.5 13. 5 9.6 12. 5 13.6 Corporate profits after taxes Total 8.4 5.0 10. 8 13. 9 19. 1 21.2 Dividend payments 5.8 3.8 4. 7 5.8 7.0 7.9 Undistributed profits 2.6 1.2 6. 1 8. 1 12. 1 13.2 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter 33.0 35.0 36. 6 34.5 12.8 13. 7 14.4 13. 6 20.2 21. 3 22.2 20. 9 7.6 7. 7 7.9 8.3 12.6 13.6 14.3 12. 6 1949* First quarter 1 Second quarter Third quarter 2 29.4 26.4 26.0 11.5 10.6 10.4 17.9 15. 8 15.6 8.4 8.4 8.3 9.5 7.4 7.3 1 2 Preliminary estimates. Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data. NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment, See p. 20 for profits before taxes and inventory valuation adjustment. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). 21 PERSONAL INCOME Total personal Income changed little in September, Ajirop in agricultural income (part of proprietors' income) resulting from smaller crop marketings was almost offset by small increases in most other items, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS D O L L A R S 250 ANNUAL RATES. SEASONALLY 250 ADJUSTED TRANSFER PAYMENTS DIVIDENDS AND INTEREST PROPRIETORS AND RENTAL INCOME SALARIES. WAGES, ETC -1 'l I i - L i I I 1939 SOURCE: 1944 1947 1948 1949 J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE S O N D J F M Total personal income Period __ . _ . 72. 6 165. 9 176. 9 193. 5 211. 9 Salaries, wages, and other labor income Proprietors' and rental income Dividends and personal interest 45.7 116.2 111. 0 122.0 135. 1 14. 7 35.5 41.2 45. 1 49.5 9.2 10. 6 13.2 14.8 16.2 Transfer payments 3. 0 3.6 11.4 11.7 11. 1 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1948: July _ August September October November December 1949: January _ _ _ _ February March April May JuneJuly August _ l _ _ _ September _ _ 1 214. 5 215.4 216. 3 216. 3 216. 6 217.0 215. 7 212. 9 212.4 212. 5 213. 1 211.9 209.7 211. 4 210. 8 136. 6 138. 5 139.7 140. 1 139. 5 139. 1 138. 6 137. 1 135. 6 136.8 137. 1 136. 1 136. 3 136.6 136. 9 50. 8 49.5 49.4 49.0 49. 8 50.3 49.0 47. 2 47. 3 46. 3 46. 7 46.5 44.2 45.2 44. 1 Preliminary estimate. Detailed data became available after chart was prepared. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. 22 M J COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] 1939 1944 1946 1947 1948 A 16. 0 16.3 16.5 16.8 16.9 16.9 17.0 17. 1 17. 1 17.2 17. 3 17.2 17. 1 17.3 17. 5 11. 1 11. 1 10. 7 10.4 10. 4 10. 7 11. 1 11. 5 12.4 12.2 12. 0 12. 1 12. 1 12. 3 12. 3 CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING Preliminary information for 3rd quarter indicates that disposable personal income dropped about twice as much as consumer spending, resulting in a reduction in the indicated rate of saving. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME "PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES. ""^PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED). [Billions of dollars] Disposable personal income * Period 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943_ 1944 1945 1946 1947_ . 1948 70.2 75.7 92.0 116. 2 131. 6 147.0 151. 1 158. 1 172. 0 190.8 __ Less: Personal consumption expenditures Equals: Personal saving 67.5 72. 1 82.3 90.8 101.6 111.6 123. 1 147.8 166.9 178.8 2.7 3.7 9.8 25. 4 30.0 35.4 28.0 10.3 5. 1 12. 0 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter _ _ Fourth quarter 1949: First quarter 2 Second quarter Third quarter 3 _ _ __ _ _ _ 181.9 189. 6 195.2 196.2 195.0 194. 2 190.4 175.2 178. 7 180. 3 180.9 177.9 178.2 176. 5 6.7 10. 8 15.0 15.3 17. 1 16. 0 13. 9 1 Income less 2 Preliminary 8 taxes. estimates. Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). 23 PER CAPITA INCOME Per capita disposable income, in terms of real purchasing power, continued near peak levels in 3rd quarter. DOLLARS DOLLARS 1,600 1,600 ANNUAL R A T E S , S E A S O N A L L Y ADJUSTED 1948 DOLLARS 1,200 1,200 800 CURRENT DOLLARS 400 I 1939 1942 1940 1943 PERSONAL INCOME LESS T A X E S 1944 1945 1946 1947 PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S . L 2 3 1948 I l 4 1949 1950 **CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE CONSUMERS* PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE 1948=100 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.. ( E X C E P T A S NOTED). Period 1939 1940 1941_ 1942. 1943 1944 1945. 1946_ 1947 1948 _ _ _ ___ _. __ _ _ .. . _ Per capita disposable personal income l Current 1948 dollars » dollars $536 $923 574 981 691 1,125 1,262 867 1,314 970 1,065 1,405 1,082 1,389 1,342 1, 119 1,282 1, 194 1,302 1,302 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949: First quarter. _4 Second quarter5 _ ._ Third quarter __ 1 Income less taxes. 2 Current dollars divided 3 _ _ _ _ _ _. 1,248 1,296 1,328 1,328 1,315 1,304 1.273 1,273 1,301 1,305 1,319 1,326 1,317 1.290 Consumers' price index1 1948=100 58. 1 58.5 61.4 68.7 73.8 75.8 77.9 83.4 93.1 100.0 Not adjusted for seasonal variation 98.0 99.6 101.8 100.7 99.2 99.0 98. 7 by the consumers' price index on the base 1948=100. The consumers' price index has been roughly adjusted to take account of the understatement from December 1941-February 1947. This adjustment is in line with the report of the Mitchell Committee. The unadjusted index will be found on page 2. 4 Preliminary estimates. 6 Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data. Source: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor (except as noted). 24 AVERAGE HOURLY EAE "GS - SELECTED Changes in average hourly earnings in September w ere not significant. DOLLA RS PER HOUR DOLL *RS PER HOUR 1.60 1.50 DURABLE MANUFACTURING NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING 1.40 1.50 1948 DOLLARS* ^*~Z* £^2~*^ 1948 / ^ _. *,J* /'x^-*'*" ^r 1.20 1.30 / CURF ENT DOLLARS/ S*^ CURREINT DOLLARS IT, . . . I . . . . , l i i i l I i i l i i 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1948 1949 1950 1947 0 jjjuj IJLLLJLL, I 1 I [ U M l 1947 1 1 , 1. 10 1.20 0 *crrj>b DOLLARS* f 1.30 1.40 H I M L! I l l 1 1948 1 1 1 1 1 1949 1 1 1 1 1 1950 1.20 2.1 0 BUILDING CONSTRUCTION RETAIL TRADE-GENERAL MERCHANDISE I.I 0 2.00 J=^ 1.90 1.00 1948 DOLLARS* /J 1946 DOLLARS* €s&"* .90 1.80 **• / ^CURRENT DOLLARS ^—S*~^ I.7O 0 .80 | ! 1 1 | 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 | 1 1 1 1 | | | I l I l 1 1 I 1 I 1 1 1 1 II L 1 1 1 1 1 1 1947 IS48 1349 1950 0 "* ^CURREhF ' ! 1 1 | | I 1 1 1 | 1 DOLLARS ! 1 1 1 ! 1 1 I 1947 1 ll| 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1949 1948 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I95O 948 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Selected industries ] All manufacturing Period Current dollars 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average- _ 1948 monthly average 1948- August September __ _ October November December 1949: January February _ March April _ _ _ _ _ _ May June __ July August 4 -- -September 4 $0. 633 .961 1.084 1.237 1. 350 1.373 1.386 1. 390 1.397 1. 400 1. 405 1.401 1.400 1. 401 1. 401 1. 406 1. 408 1.398 L 405 1948 dollars 2 $1. 090 1. 302 1. 300 1. 329 1. 350 1. 347 1. 360 L 371 1. 389 1. 399 1.408 1.419 1. 414 1.414 1. 418 1.419 1. 431 1.418 1. 418 Durable goods manufacturing Current dollars (8) (33) () $1. 292 1. 410 1. 441 1. 457 1. 462 1. 463 1.466 1.467 1. 466 1.464 1. 467 1.467 1. 476 1. 478 1.474 1. 481 1948 dollars 2 (33) () (3) $1. 388 1. 410 1. 414 1.430 1. 442 1. 454 1.465 1. 470 1. 485 1. 480 1.480 1. 485 1. 489 1. 502 1. 495 1. 494 Nondurable goods manufacturing Current dollars (3) (33) () $1. 171 1.278 1. 293 1.304 1. 302 1. 317 1. 319 1. 327 1. 323 1. 323 1.321 1. 323 1. 325 1. 332 1 . 320 1. 326 1948 dollars 2 Building construction Current dollars (33) () (3) $1. 258 1. 278 1. 269 1. 280 1.284 1. 309 1.318 1. 330 1. 340 1. 336 1. 333 1. 339 1. 337 1. 354 1. 339 1. 338 (33) () (33) () $1. 848 1. 874 1.895 1. 892 1. 906 1. 915 1. 918 1. 930 1. 933 1. 934 1. 930 1. 924 1. 922 1. 931 (3) 1948 dollars 2 (33) () (33) () $1. 848 1. 839 1. 360 1. 866 1. 895 1. 913 1. 922 1. 955 L 953 1. 952 1. 953 1. 941 1. 953 1. 958 (3) General merchandise retail trade Current dollars (33) () (3) $0. 853 . 910 . 917 . 923 . 922 . 918 . 919 .943 . 937 .933 . 934 . 960 .968 . 951 .957 3 () 1948 dollars 2 (33) () (3) $0. 916 .910 .900 .906 . 909 . 913 .918 .945 .949 .942 . 942 .972 . 977 . 966 .971 (3) 1 Production and related workers. Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on base 1948=100. See note 3 to table on page 24. Not available. Preliminary estimates. NOTE. — These are revised series and do not agree with data previously published in Economic Indicators. Source: Department of Labor. 2 3 4 25 ?MT1S!°GS fe.JS» 12 AJL Average week! v earnings in nondurable goods industries5 rose in durable goods employees continued upward. DOLL A R 3 PER September to a new peak. Earnings of DOLL ARS W <-. £ K 65 - SELECTED INDUSTRIES V PER WEEK *60 NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING DURABLE M ANUFACTURING * 60 DOLLARS IS 48 X\'' s**4fr s~°^* 55 •%#=# 1948 50 55 /%rv/ """" G U R R E N T DOLLARS* ^^""^""'^^^o^Zs^' rv' DOLLARS > 45 50 lf*°~*<*r ^ CURR ENT DOLLARS 40 45 ^ 0 l JJ^ ! i „ i i ; 1 J_ JUJJjJjJJLLJL UJ.JJJuJj.JJJU- 1948 1949 0 I 1 ! I 1 i 1 1 1 II U.J1JJ III 1 Li 1950 1947 1 I! 1948 I 1 I 1 1 I f ! 1 « I I 1 1 II I |? I960 1949 45 80 RETAIL TRADE -GENERAL MERCHANDISE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION 40 75 70 1948 1948 y^ DOLLAF % 65 ^^ DOLLARS* ,-„ 35 / ' TZtf**^ 30 ^ CURRENT C OLLARS ^^ CURREN T DOLLARS 25 60 0 .JJ_~UjJuJJJJ_ 1947 L ,IIII_IJ_.LLJ_L.I_L JL_l_LJjJj_JJ_Ll, 1948 1949 =r 1 1 1 1 1 ! l ! 1 1 1 0 LL L J ! l L 1 1 LI I960 1 1 1 II 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1947 ** NOT A V A I L A B L E 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1948 1949 PR OR TO JANUARY 1 i 1 I 1 1 1 | ! |T 1950 1948 COUNCIL 1 OF ECONOMIC ADVISORS [Selected industries l] All manufacturing Durable goods manufacturing Nondurable goods manufacturing Building construction General merchandise retail trade Period Current dollars 1948 'dollars 2 Current dollars 1948 dollars 2 Current dollars 1948 dollars 2 Current dollars $41. 07 1939 month! 3r average $23. 86 (3) (3) (3) (3) (33) 1Q43 monthly average 43. 14 58.46 (33) (33) (3) 003 (3) 52. 45 43. 74 1946 monthly average (3) () () CO $50. 44 $52. 46 $56. 35 $46. 96 49. 97 53. 67 1947 monthly7 average _ _ » _ () $68. 85 50. 61 54. 14 57. 11 57. 11 54. 14 1948 monthl} average 50. 61 70. 91 50. 12 54. 03 57. 41 51. 07 55. 06 58. 50 1948: August 71. 29 50. 68 55. 16 54. 13 58. 28 57. 19 September __ _ 51. 64 70. 59 50. 21 October 58. 68 50. 91 54. 83 55. 60 59. 50 69. 39 51. 32 51. 63 58. 76 55. 60 55. 27 59. 1 1 November. _ 72. 33 51. 79 December _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 59. 61 56. 14 59. 67 56. 08 51. 84 70. 88 51.45 55. 50 58. 83 58. 95 51. 35 55. 61 1949: January _ 52. 01 70. 53 55 20 59. 26 f^ebruarv 55. 93 58. 49 51. 33 69. 83 51. 59 51. 07 March _ _ _ 54. 74 57. S3 58. 41 55. 29 70. 33 50. 12 54. 29 57. 73 49. 67 April 53. 80 57. 21 51. 02 50. 41 71. 81 57. 90 May _ _ 54. 08 54. 74 57. 21 71. 44 51.01 51. 47 57. 86 58. 39 54. 55 55. 05 June 52. 35 71. 28 51. 51 55. 52 58. 39 54. 63 57. 46 July 4 71.91 52. 04 55.44 58. 56 51. 31 54. 66 57. 74 August _ 53. 12 59. 18 52, 64 56. 1 5 September 4 .. __ . 58. fi5 55. 64 (3) 1 For production and related workers. 2 Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1948=100. See note 3 to table on page 24. 8 Not available. 4 Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—These are revised series and do not agree with data previously published in Economic Indicators. Source: Department of Labor. () 26 1948 dollars 2 (33) () (33) () $68. 85 69. 59 69. 96 69. 62 68. 98 72. 26 71. 02 71. 46 70. 54 70. 97 72. 68 72.09 72. 44 72.93 (3) Current dollars (33) (3) () $30. 96 33. 31 34. 30 33. 50 33. 19 32. 86 34. 46 34. 42 34.01 33. 68 34. 18 34. 85 35. 62 35.57 35.31 (3) 1948 dollars 2 (33) (3) () $33. 25 33.31 33.66 32.88 32. 73 32, 66 34.43 34.49 34.46 34.02 34.49 35. 27 35. 94 36. 15 35.81 (3) The purchasing power of farmers' receipts in September continued substantially lower than a year previous, reflecting the much greater decrease in prices received by farmers then in prices paid. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4 I 1939 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 I 48 'INCLUDES CASH FARM INCOME FROM MARKETING AND GOVERNMENT PAYMENTS. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. Farm income (millions of current dollars) * Period 1939 monthly average _ 1 Q4 1 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948: August _ September October November December 1949: January _ _ _ _ February _ _ _ March April __ IVlay _ _ June _ _ _ _ _ July 4 August September 4 , _ _ _ 794 981 _ _ _ _ _. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1 340 1 678 1 765 1 857 2 UO 2 542 2 609 2 722 3 132 3 714 3, 314 2 740 2 383 1, 783 1 973 1, 850 1 944 2 053 2 177 2, 417 2. 608 Prices paid by farmers (incl. Farm income (millions of interest and taxes) 1948 = 1948 dollars) » 2 100 49 8 53 0 60 2 65 1 67. 9 69 1 77. 5 92 8 100. 0 100. 8 100 4 100. 0 99. 2 99 6 99. 6 98. 4 98 8 98. 8 98. 4 98. 4 98. 0 97. 7 97. 2 1, 454 1 851 2, 226 2 578 2, 599 2 687 2, 723 2, 739 2, 609 2, 700 3 120 3, 714 3, 341 2, 751 2, 393 1, 812 1, 997 1, 872 1, 976 2,086 2. 221 2, 474 2, 683 1 2 3 Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments. Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1948=100. Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, and taxes, 1948=100. * Preliminary estimates. Source: Department of Agriculture* 27 CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Heovy purchases of automobiles and other durables plus an increase in service expenditures failed to o f f s e t entirely the drop in expenditures for nondurcbles in 3rd quarter. B I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S BILLIONS OF DOLLARS £#£:££ DURABLE GOODS'##&$}$. 100 1950 SOURCE: nrpfeRTMHNT OF COMMERCE ( E X C E P T AS NOTED). COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S [Billions of dollars] Personal consumption expenditures Period Nondurable goods Total 1939 1944 1946 1947_ 1948 67.5 111. 6 147.8 166. 9 178.8 35.3 67.1 86.8 96. 2 102.2 Durable goods 6.7 7. 1 16. 5 22. 0 23. 5 Services 25.5 37.4 44. 5 48.8 53. 1 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter 1 Second quarter Third quarter 2 1949: 28for FRASER Digitized 1 2 _ __ __ _ 175. 2 178. 7 180.3 180.9 101.2 102. 4 101.8 103. 3 22.7 23. 8 24. 8 22. 9 51.3 52. 5 53. 7 54, 8 177.9 178.2 176. 5 99.9 98. 7 96.0 22. 5 23. 6 24. 0 55. 4 55.9 56. 5 Preliminary estimates. Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). CONSUMER CREDIT The rise in total consumer credit in September was greater than last year. Increases occurred in ail major categories. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2 0 1943 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2 0 1946 J 1947 F M A M J J A S O N D i'aialSaHSiKSSEUHniSSSUlStniiHisHiHHSHlaSHggSiaHSaSfSSH' J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M 1948 1947 END OF YEAR J 1949 END OF MONTH SOURCE: B O A R D OF G O V E R N O R S OF THE F E D E R A L R E S E R V E SYSTEM. [Millions of dollars] Total consumer credit outstanding End of period 1939 1943 1946 1947 1948 1948: August September. _ _ October November December 1949: January __ February March _ _ April May June July August 2 September 2 _ _ __ _ __ __ Instalment credit Total Automobile sale credit Other sale credit and loans Charge accounts Other consumer credit l 7,969 5,378 10, 191 13, 673 16, 319 4,424 2,001 4,000 6,434 8,600 1,267 175 544 1, 151 1,961 3, 157 1,826 3,456 5,283 6, 639 1, 544 1,498 3,054 3,612 3,854 2,001 1, 879 3, 137 3, 627 3,865 14, 15, 15, 15, 16, 916 231 518 739 319 7,972 8, 190 8,233 8,322 8,600 1,781 1, 858 1,889 1, 922 1,961 6, 191 6,332 6,344 6,400 6,639 3, 130 3,227 3,457 3, 557 3,854 3,814 3, 814 3,828 3,860 3,865 15, 15, 15, 15, 15, 16, 16, 16, 16, 748 325 335 595 843 124 198 458 804 8,424 8, 339 8,429 8,630 8,888 9, 123 9, 335 9, 615 9,888 1, 965 1, 996 2, 105 2,241 2, 386 2,499 2, 610 2, 761 2, 883 6,459 6,343 6, 324 6,389 6, 502 6,624 6,725 6, 854 7,005 3,457 3, 169 3, 121 3,232 3, 235 3, 274 3, 123 3,064 3, 123 3,867 3,817 3, 785 3, 733 3, 720 3, 727 3, 740 3, 779 3, 793 1 2 Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit. Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE Loons and private investments of commercial banks increased $800 million in September. Investments in U. S. Government securities continued near the" August level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 125 100 75 50 25 S IS£9 IS39 !945 END OF Y E A R O N D J F M A M J . J * A S O N D 1948 END OF MONTH PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE Council of Economic Adviser: [Billions of dollars] End of period 1929 1939 1945 1947 1948 1948: August September October November December 1949: January February March April Mav June Julv August ScDtember l . 1 . _ _ __ _. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ - Investments Total loans and investments Bank loans 49. 5 40. 7 124. 0 116. 3 114. 3 115. 1 113. 6 114. 1 114. 2 114. 3 114. 5 113. 4 112. 5 112. 5 113. 4 113. 7 114. 7 117. 9 118. 8 36. 0 17. 2 26. 1 38. 1 42.5 40. 6 41.7 41. 6 42.3 42.5 42.4 42. 0 42. 4 41.3 40.9 41.2 40. 5 41.2 41. 8 Total Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 30for FRASER Digitized 13. 5 23. 4 97. 9 78.2 71.8 74. 5 71.9 72. 5 71.9 71.8 72.0 71. 4 70. 1 71. 2 72.6 72. 5 74. 2 76. 7 77. 0 U. S. Government securities 4.8 16.3 90. 6 69. 2 62.6 65. 1 62.5 63.3 62.8 62.6 63.0 62. 2 60. 9 62. 0 63.2 63.0 64.4 66. 7 66. 8 Other securities 8. 7 7. 1 7. 3 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.4 9.2 9. 1 9.2 9. 1 9. 1 9.2 9.2 9. 3 9. 5 9.8 10. 0 10. 2 in September, the total money supply fell slightly. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS S I L U O N S OF DOLLARS 00 200 TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY ( EXCLUDING U.S. GOV'T. DEPOSITS) 75 -— *^ \ 50 _ TUv-E: DEPOSITS 4 25 — ^ «—: *~*» 00 vs^r ^^*S°'*l0^'ir'T^^ _vjr77~T,_" Or- ^WW^*^***5**^"** „.] ... .. ~T7l „ ~ , J ,1^"' j"""^.' i 1 1 i n . V-. ~ „.. ADJUSTED DEMAND ?E^)S iTS < : i * 50 i ! 1 ** - *9*>4* 25 "Spf^**"****!*^^ >vz.^r^r , CURRENCY CUTSiDE B A W K b v* "*»*M V 0 1939 1943 1946 •> .,«, ac«. r-,.- •,*, M ' •) _ ' ' ^ - 1947 1948 J F M A M END OF YEAR J J A S O N D J F M A M '9^7 J J A S O N O J F M 1943 A M J J A S O K D 1949 END OF MONTH SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. ™>i-im r- r [Billions of dollars] Total money supply End of period 1939 1943 1946 1947 19481948: August _ September October November December 1949: January Febriiiiry March. _ April May tt«j _ _ June_ July August September 3 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ „ _______ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ „ _ 63.3 112,4 1(>4. 0 170. 0 169. 1 160. 7 166. 9 1G8. 1 168. 1 169. 1 168. 2 16(1 3 164. 2 165. 5 165. 7 165. 6 1 66. 3 1^6. 9 166, 6 Currency outside banks 6.4 1R. 8 26. 7 26. 5 26. 1 25. 6 25. 7 25. 7 25. 9 26. 1 25.2 25. 1 25. 1 24.9 25.0 25. 0 24.9 25. 1 24. 9 Adjusted demand deposits 1 29. 8 GO. 8 83. 3 87. 1 85. 5 83. 8 83. 9 85. 1 85. 2 85. 5 85. 4 83. 4 81. 1 82. 4 82. 6 82. 2 83. 1 83. 4 83. 3 Time deposits 2 27. 1 32. 7 54. 0 f>6. 4 57. 5 57. 3 57. 3 57. 3 57. 0 57. 5 57.6 57. 8 58. 0 58. 1 58. 2 58. 4 58. 4 58. 3 58. 4 1 Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Go\ r ernment. less cash items in process of collection. 2 Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System. 8 Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 31 FEDERAL CAS5H RECEIPTS FROM AND TS TO THE PUBLIC The cash deficit of about S400 million for the 3rd quarter compares with a surplus of $1.3 billion for the same quarter of 1948. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 6 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 6 ^CASH RECEIPTS n W- r.A<;M P/SYMPWTC; 1 2 / ^|:;::::::::1 8 . ^«J::::;::::I ! f^i F&TS Iff ,.ft: rJ 'jL, "AV^ '"Si ""F'-i ~ lfer~ '. p — / ^~M::-'-: H p!;:: '^x-xxt ife: tjfe & : ,^;'%'' •'•'•' : : : ^V'iv'v'- H i '''fffi'. :. . . « I g|>:v:- 0 I ','-':•; ' vXv! H i »•>•:•>• Sfl f-rf:^ i 2 | 946 3 : : 4 ;'; f|-X;X; 2 SX-X-3 I ' J- '•"•:• — : •;^4|-. .' X :: '.'I /:•;•:•; jp; ''»•'• •'•' M ^ •:>:.; i|l gp tesgix>| pp m ! :*l !-'''t :"x- — ;' J->:>: ij 4 i : } p' '• ? -:••<:•* •:::: — ^ :::: :.::\ :f| ^i 1947 3 .'/•JX-X-Hi — i |!i pfi 1i i ,fl /' fx-.-x? ife B 11 Ii 4 2 • .VxJvXy l l Pljt is Ii ^i di 5.,L-i K-'^;i:::::y 1948 ° ;•;••• •': :^.:::::-:H — :;fi yii III •••::.- * [— ; • :.;::: ^ ? : ^- b 'y. .:•:•. '/'•i: | ^ .'•:•:• — — I P -P'ii;i. ft 1 ' /•:•: ':;-•: — fc^ '•••:•'•: ^: 8 4 i O 2 4 1949 3 4 +8 4-8 EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS ffl m x/^t 0 PI PI «JL^I«.»«JLd " ~ LI " «•'•— — ••- *^-t- _^g___ U n^ 1 f •- .1 i ^ l k^^i S f-^J bi^J EXCESS CF CASH PAYMENTS U 0 0 U " _4 -a. 1 2 |9^g 3 4 i 2 1947 3 2 4 CALENDAR 1948 3 4 \ 2 1949 3 YEARS SOURCE: BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMEWT. [Millions of dollars] Calendar years Calendar year total: 1946 1947 1948 Quarterly total, not adjusted for seasonal: 1946: Third quarter Fourth quarter _ _ _ _ _ 1947: First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter _ 1948: First quarter _ _ Second quarter Third ouarter Fourth quarter _ __ 1949: First quarter Second quarter _ Third quarter 2 _ . . _ _ _ _ _ _ Federal cash receipts from the public 1 Federal cash payments to the public 1 41, 426 44, 279 44, 920 41, 372 38, 584 36, 954 + 54 + 5, 695 + 7,967 9, 702 9, 630 14, 345 9, 847 10, 220 9, 869 15, 037 10, 238 10, 085 9, 560 13, 122 8,814 10, 143 8,449 8,671 9, 163 10, 628 10,257 8,536 8,637 9,033 8,798 10, 486 9, 964 11,355 10,528 + 1, 252 + 959 + 5, 182 -781 — 37 + 1, 331 + 6,400 + 1, 205 + 1, 287 -925 + 3, 158 -2, 541 -385 Excess of receipts (-f) or payments ( — ) 1 Pa37ments of refunds of Government receipts are now reported as deductions from total receipts; previously, they were reported as expenditures. a Preliminary estimates based on incomplete data. NOTE.-—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget. O For sale by rhs Superintendent of Documents, U. S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D. O. Price 15 cents per copy; $1.75 per year; $2.25 foreign 4