Full text of Economic Indicators : November 1948
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Congress, 2d Session ... •• 4 "' Joint Committee Print Economic Indicators NOVEMBER 1948 Prepared for the joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council of Economic Advisers and printed for the use of the joint Committee on the Economic Report *' UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1948 X JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT (Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio, Chairman JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan, Vice Chairman JOSEPH H. BALL, Minnesota RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah . JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania JOHN SPARKMAN, Alabama GEORGE H. BENDER, Ohio CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio CHARLES O. HARDY, Staff Director FRED E. BERQUIST, Assistant Staff Director JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk WILLIAM H. MOORE, Economist To the Members of Congress: From the time the Joint Committee on the Economic Report was established, its members realized that one of its basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture of current economic trends and developments. Fortunately, the Joint Committee finds that Economic Indicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiled monthly by the Council of Economic Advisers, admirably fills this need. . While this material was prepared primarily for the use of the President, the Council and other officials in 'the. executive offices, the Council has made it c t6 T the Joint Committee. ^ JMcttibfrrif of Congress have also expressed an interest ifr being able to obtain a quick picture of current economic facts without having to go through vol u m i n o u s and specialized documents. In addition, businessmen, farm leaders, labor organizations, and repres e n t . u i v e s of the press and radio have indicated their d e s i r e lor t h i s information. Since nothing contained in these charts and tables is of a confidential nature they have urged that the material be made available to the general public. Accordingly, the Joint Committee has for the past several months provided the Congress and the public with a limited number of copies of Economic Indicators. The response to these issues has indicated such widespread interest that the Committee has arranged to release Economic Indicators each month as a committee print until action can be taken on authorizing the publication on a more permanent basis. Comments or suggestions with respect to possible improvements in this presentation will always be welcome. Chairman^ Joint Committee on the Economic Letter o£ Transmitted Hon. ROBERT A. TAFT, Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report, United States Congress, Washington, D. C. DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the Joint Committee on the Economic Report in your plans to make Economic Indicators available to the Congress as a whole and to the general public. In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has found it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts showing current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a better position to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the improvement and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services. We have realized, of course, that this material has a potential usefulness not only to the President, the Council and the executive departments, but also to the Congress. Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and consumer organizations with whom we regularly consult. We believe the Joint Committee will perform a service of real value by giving wide circulation to this material. Sincerely yours, ^ / Chairman. Vice Chairman. ft 111 Contents THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET The Nation's Economic Budget Page 1 PRICES Consumers' Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers Stock Prices 2 3 4 5 EMPLOYMENT Labor Force Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours Work Stoppages 6 7 8 9 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Production of Selected Durable Manufactures Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures New Construction New Housing Starts Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment New Corporate Security Issues Inventories and Sales Exports and Imports 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 PURCHASING POWER National Income Corporate Profits Personal Income Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving Per Capita Income Average Hourly Earnings Average Weekly Earnings Farm Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Consumer Credit 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE Bank Loans and Investments Money Supply Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public 29 30 31 IV THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET Preliminary 3rd quarter estimates of the Nation's Economic Budget indicate that the total increased about 3 percent above the level for 1st half of this year, chiefly as a result of price rises. The government surplus was greatly reduced as Federal receipts from personal income taxes declined. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TOTAL (GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT) 1948, FIRST HALF 1948, THIRD QUARTER (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) EXCESS OF EXPENDITURES (-), RECEIPTS(+) T 0 + 77\ CONSUMER YA SAVING 1948, FIRST HALF CONSUMERS BUSINESS EXCESS OF INVESTMENT INTERNATIONAL EXCESS OF INVESTMENT GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL,STATE AND LOCAL) CASH SURPLUS 1948, THIRD QUARTER CONSUMERS ^CONSUMER j SAVING 179.0 BUSINESS EXCESS OF INVESTMENT INTERNATIONAL EXCESS OF INVESTMENT GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL.STATE AND LOCAL) 59.7 S££ MIDYEAR ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JULY 1948, APPENDIX A SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BUREAU OF THE BUDGET. CASH SURPLUS PRICES CONSUMERS' PRICES In September consumers' prices, for the first time since April, did not advance. Declines in foods offset rises in other consumers1 prices. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE 225 225 200 200 175 175 150 150 125 125 100 100 1940 1939 1941 1943 1942 1944 1945 1947 1946 * ALSO INCLUDES HOUSEFURNISHINGS, FUEL, ELECTRICITY^ ICE,\ AND MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES, NOT SHOWN ON CHART. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. 1948 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISER [1935-39=100] All items l Period 1939 monthly average 1940 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average _ » _ _ _ . 1947: August __ September October November December. 1948: January February March April May June July August September 1 _ __ . __ Food ' Clothing 99. 4 100. 2 105. 2 116. 5 123. 6 125. 5 128. 4 139. 3 159. 2 95. 2 96. 6 105. 5 123. 9 138. 0 136. 1 139. 1 159. 6 193. 8 100. 5 101. 7 106. 3 124. 2 129. 7 138. 8 145. 9 160. 2 185. 8 104. 3 104. 6 106. 2 108. 5 108 0 108. 2 108. 3 108. 6 111. 2 160. 3 163. 8 163. 8 164. 9 167. 0 196. 5 203. 5 201. 6 202. 7 206. 9 185. 9 187. 6 189. 0 190 2 191. 2 111. 2 113. 6 114. 9 115 2 115. 4 168. 8 167. 5 166. 9 169. 3 170. 5 171. 7 173. 7 174. 5 174. 5 209. 7 204. 7 202. 3 207.9 210.9 214. 1 216. 8 216. 6 215.2 192. 1 195. 1 196. 3 196. 4 197. 5 196. 9 197. 1 199. 7 201.0 115. 9 116. 0 116. 3 116. 3 116.7 117. 0 117. 3 117 7 118. 5 Also includes housefurnishings, fuel, electricity, ice, and miscellaneous goods and services. NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities. Source: Department of Labor. Rent WHOLESALE PRICES Wholesale prices fell sharply in early October as a result of reductions in prices of farm products and foods. Since then they have shown a slightly rising tendency. Industrial prices have been steady. PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE 220 220 200 200 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. [1926=100] All commodities Week ended—• 1946: Jan. 5— June 29 Sept. 28 Dec. 28 1947: Mar. 29 June 28 Sept. 27 Dec. 27 1948: Jan. 17.__ Feb. 14 Mar. 27 Apr. 24 May 29 June 26 July 31 Aug. 28 Sept. 4 P 11 18 25 Oct. 2 9 16 23 30 1 1 __ _ _ .-. . . _ _ ._ ,_ _ _> ._ _ __ __ ..-. _ __ _ .. ' "' _ ___ ._ Data received after chart was prepared. Source: Department of Labor. __ _ 106. 8 112. 7 124. 4 139. 6 149. 4 147 6 156. 2 163. 0 165. 5 159. 7 161. 1 163 6 164.4 166. 7 168. 3 168 4 167.4 168. 0 169. 2 168. 7 167. 1 164. 6 164. 8 165. 3 163. 8 Farm products 131. 3 140. 3 ' 156. 6 167. 7 183. 8 179. 0 184. 7 197.0 201.5 180. 9 186.2 188. 9 193.0 198. 4 192. 2 189. 3 187.8 188. 1 190: 1 190: 8 186. 4 181.5 182.2 183. 8 180. 7 Foods 108.0 113.4 133.0 159. 1 166. 5 162. 2 177.6 177.8 181.2 173.3 174. 8 180. 4 178.0 183.0 187. 7 187. 8 184.0 185. 9 189. 9 187,8 183. 9 178.0 178. 0 178. 8 174. 8 Other than farm and foods 100.6 105.4 112.4 123. 9 131.9 132. 0 138. 2 146.0 147. 4 147. 5 147. 4 149.0 149.3 149. 9 152. 1 153. 2 153.3 153.6 153. 5 153.3 153.4 153.3 153. 5 153.4 153. 4 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Index of prices received by farmers dropped substantially from September to October, as harvesting of the bumper corn crop began. Meat animal prices fell more than seasonally and returns for butterfat declined. PERCENT 350 PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE 350 OF 1910-14 AVERAGE MONTHLY AVERAGE 300 300 250 250 200 PRICES PAID (1NCL. INTEREST, TAXES) 100 PARITY RATIO * 50 50 J 1939 I 40 I 42 41 43 44 J 45 F M A M J J I I I I A S O N D J I I I I I I I I I F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 1946 1947 1948 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF A G R I C U L T U R E . COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S [1910-14=100] Prices paid by Prices (includ- Parity ratio 2 received 1 farmers ing interest by farmers and taxes) Period 1939 monthly 1940 monthly 1941 monthly 1942 monthly 1943 monthly 1944 monthly 1945 monthly 1946 monthly 1JH7 monthly average average _ average averageaverage average average average, average ____ 95 100 124 159 192 195 202 233 278 124 125 132 150 162 170 174 194 231 77 80 94 106 119 115 116 120 120 1947: September October November December 286 289 287 301 238 239 241 245 120 121 119 123 1948 1 January February March April May June _ _ July _ _ August September October 307 279 283 291 289 295 301 293 290 277 251 248 247 249 250 251 251 251 250 1M(.) 122 112 115 17 Hi 1 2 _ _ _ _ August 1909-July 1914=100. Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, and Source: Department of Agriculture. 18 20 17 l(i 1! STOCK PRICES Industrial little. stock prices rallied during October; railroads registered small gains; utilities changed PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE 175 PERCENT OF 1935 - 39 AVERAGE MONTHLY AVERAGE RAILROADS 150 125 v^jL'^C1 100 75 50 1939 40 41 42 43 44 J F M A M J 45 J A S O N D J F M A M J JA. S O N D J F M A M J j A S O N D 1946 SOURCE : 1947 1948 S T A N D A R D AND POOR'S C O R P O R A T I O N . COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S [1935-39 = 100] Combined index 1 Period 1939 monthly average 1940 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthlv average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947: August SeptemberOctober November December 1948: January _. February March April « May June __ July August _ __ September October __ __ - *. „ -. _ __ -_ 94. 2 88. 1 80.0 69.4 91. 9 99. 8 121. 5 139. 9 123.0 124.4 123. 1 125. 1 123. 6 122.4 120. 1 114.2 116.4 124. 6 130.2 135. 1 131.9 127. 1 125.7 127. 8 Industrials l 94.8 87. 9 80.4 71.3 94. 1 101.7 123.3 143.4 128.0 130. 2 128.4 131. 1 130.3 129. 2 126. 0 119. 2 121. 8 130. 8 136.9 142.7 138.9 133. 5 131. 7 134.3 Railroads * 74.7 71. 1 70.6 66. 1 88. 7 101. 0 136.9 143.0 105. 3 105.2 103. 6 104. 2 100. 1 103. 9 106. 5 101.9 105.2 115.2 122.6 125.6 124.7 119. 7 120.4 120.9 Utilities » 98.6 95.8 81.0 61.3 82. 1 89.9 106. 1 120.2 102.9 101.4 102.0 101. 0 97. 2 94.0 95. 1 92.6 93.0 96.2 99.2 100. 6 99. 5 97. 3 97.3 97.4 1 Combined index prior to June 23, 1948, was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials, 20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads, and 31 utilities. Source: Standard & Poor's Corp. 82171—48 EMPLOYMENT LABOR FORCE Civilian employment in October remained above 60 million despite a slight seasonal decline. Unemployment fell to 1.6 million, the lowest level since last fall. 75 75 — M I L L I O N S OF PERSONS 50 m 25 MONTHLY AVERAGE J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D UNEMPLOYED-MAGNIFIED SCALE 1941 SOURCE; 1944 1945 1 1946 1947 1946 1948 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S [Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over] Period Civilians employed Total In nonagricultural industries In agriculture Armed forces Unemployed 57, 65, 65, 60, 61, 380 890 140 820 608 50, 53, 52, 55, 58, 350 960 820 250 027 41, 45, 44, 46, 49, 250 010 240 930 761 9, 100 8,950 8, 580 8,320 8,266 1,470 11, 260 11, 280 3,300 1,440 5,560 670 1,040 2,270 2, 141 1947: August September October November. December 63, 62, 62, 61, 60, 017 130 219 510 870 59, 58, 59, 58, 57, 569 872 204 595 947 50, 50, 50, 50, 50, 594 145 583 609 985 8, 975 8, 727 8, 622 7,985 6, 962 1,352 1, 346 1,327 1,294 1, 280 2, 096 1,912 1,687 1,621 1,643 1948: January February March April May__ June __ __ JulyAugust September October 60, 455 61, 004 61,005 61, 760 61,660 64, 740 65, 135 64, 511 63, 578 63, 166 50, 089 50, 368 50, 482 50, 883 50, 800 51, 899 52, 452 52, 801 51, 590 51, 506 7,060 6, 771 6,847 7,448 7,861 9,396 9, 163 8, 444 8, 723 S, (J27 1,241 1, 226 1, 236 1, 230 1, 238 1, 2(>1 1 , 2<);i 2,065 2, 639 2, <HO 2, 193 1,761 'J, 184 '2, 227 I , 1M 1 J , 81)1) 1, (i-12 1941 1944 1945 1946 1947 6 Total labor force, including armed forces monthly monthly monthly monthly monthly average average average average average. __ 57, 149 57, 139 57, 329 58, 330 58, 660 61,296 61,615 61, 245 60, 312 60, 134 NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Source: Department of Commerce. i , ;rjf> i , ;{(•>(; i , ;{«) i NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT An increase in manufacturing and government employment lifted total nonagricultural salary workers about 250,000 above the previous all-time peak of last December. wage and MILLIONS OF EMPLOYEES MILLIONS OF EMPLOYEES 60 60 MONTHLY A V E R A G E 1939 * 1941 1944 1945 S££~ TABLE, FOOTNOTE I. SOURCE: COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. [Thousands of employees] Total wage and salary workers l Period 1939 monthly average. 1941 monthly average1944 monthly average 1 945 monthly average 1946 monthly average1947 monthly average 1947: August— September October November _ December 1948: January February March April _ _ _ Mav iVAO-J June _ July August _ 2 __ September 1 _ 30, 287 36, 164 41, 480 40, 069 41, 494 43, 970 44, 125 44, 513 44, 758 44, 918 45, 618 44, 603 44, 279 44, 600 44, 299 44, 616 45, 009 45, 078 45, 487 45, 864 Manufacturing 10, 078 12, 974 17, 111 15, 302 14, 515 15, 901 15, 962 16, 175 16, 209 16, 256 16, 354 16, 267 16, 183 16, 269 15, 950 15, 892 16, 115 16, 158 16, 451 16, 638 Trade 6, 705 7, 567 7, 399 7, 685 8, 820 9,450 9, 356 9,471 9, 684 9, 886 10, 288 9,622 9, 520 9, 598 9, 576 9, 617 9, 670 9, 646 9, 659 9,757 Federal, State, and local government 3, 987 4, 622 6,026 5, 967 5, 607 5, 449 5,318 5, 403 5,414 5, 387 5,638 5,498 5,492 5, 546 5, 577 5, 624 5, 607 5, 599 5, 650 5,801 Other 9, 517 11,001 10, 944 11, 115 12, 552 13, 170 13, 489 13, 464 13, 451 13, 389 13, 338 13, 216 13, 084 13, 187 13, 196 13, 483 13, 617 13, 675 13, 727 13, 668 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 6) which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates2 in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. Preliminary estimate. Source: Department of Labor. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS Average weekly hours of work in August were unchanged from July, except in coal mining where there was a return to normal after the July strike in "captive" mines, Preliminary data for September show a slight decline in manufacturing. HOUF ?S PER WEEK HOURS PER WEEK ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES BITUMINOUS COAL MINING 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 T l"\ ,• U V 20 - 1 0 1 0 - 0 1939 41 1»H ur \Avy^, 44 ,,,,,!,,,,, ( 1946 1947 45 ,,,,,1,,,,, - 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 0 1948 1939 41 44 45 1946 , 1 I 1J ! ! 1 1 1 1 1 1947 1948 RETAIL TRADE PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION 50 50 M 40 4O «^**— —V *^^~*»*~^ ^^— 30 30 20 20 1 0 - 10 " . , , , . ! > , . , , • 1 1 . . 1. . . i i M i M 1 i i_ii i 0 1939 41 44 45 1946 1947 • • i . • 1 . • 0 1948 1939 4! 44 45 1946 M! 1947 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. 1948 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Hours per week, selected industries] All manufacturing industries Period 1939 monthly 1941 monthly 1944 monthly 1945 monthly 1946 monthly 1947 monthly average average average average average average 1947: August SfiptftTnber October November December 1948: January February _ March April May June July 3 August . September 3 1 3 3 _ _ »_ _ __ _ Bituminous coal mining l Retail trade 37. 7 40. 6 45. 2 43. 4 40. 4 40. 3 27. 1 31. 1 43. 4 42.3 41.6 40.7 32. 6 34.8 39. 6 39.0 38. 1 37.8 43.0 42.5 40. 3 40.3 40. 5 40.2 39. 8 40. 4 40. 6 40. 4 41.2 39. 1 39. 1 39. 9 38. 5 41.2 38.2 37.9 38. 1 36.6 37.9 41.0 40.0 40. 0 39.5 39.7 40. 5 40. 2 40. 4 40. 1 39. 9 40. 2 39.8 40. 1 39 7 40.9 38. 7 40. 6 2 27.0 40. 3 39.9 34.2 39.3 37.2 36.7 37. 1 37.0 37. 1 37. 9 37.8 37.8 39.8 40.0 39.8 39.8 39. 9 40.3 40.8 41.0 Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects. Based on pay period during coal stoppage. Preliminary estimate. Source: Department of Labor. Private building construction WORK STOPPAGES Despite a decrease in the number of new strikes in September, man-days of idleness increased. The extended maritime and oil strikes on the west coast and the auto-suppliers1 strike in Detroit were largely responsible. MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE 25 MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS 20 PEAK MONTH 1939 40 41 42 43 44 45 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. Man-days idle (thousands) Period 1939; Monthly average April—peak month _ . _ __ _ _ _ 1940: Monthly average _ _ _ _ _ . _ _ _ _ _ _ 1941: Monthly average._ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ___ April—peak month _ 1942: Monthly average 1943: Monthly average June —peak month _ _ _ __ _ _ ___ 1944: Monthly average _ _ 1945: Monthly average October—peak month __ _ __ ___ 1946: Monthly average _ _ February — peak month 1947: Monthly average-- _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ April—peak month 1948: March 1 April _ _ _ May June _ _ _ _ _ _ July August. _ September ^.Preliminary estimate. _ __ _ _ __ Source: Department of^Labor. _ _ Man-days idle as percent of estimated available working time 1,484 4, 902 0. 28 559 . 10 . 32 1. 13 1, 921 7, 113 349 .05 1, 125 4, 699 . 15 . 62 727 .09 .47 3, 168 8, 610 9, 672 22, 900 2, 993 8, 540 6, 000 8,000 4, 100 2,000 2, 200 1, 750 2, 400 1. 39 1. 43 4. 19 .41 1. 19 .8 1. 1 .6 .3 .3 .2 .3 S*0 N D IDLE 25 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Industrial p r o d u c t i o n in S e p t e m b e r c o n t i n u e d at the August level, Manufacturing o u t p u t w a s u p a little, w h i l e m i n i n g w a s d o w n 3 p e r c e n t . P r e l i m i n a r y d a t a i n d i c a t e O c t o b e r p r o d u c t i o n was b a c k to the p o s t w a r - p e a k l e v e l s r e a c h e d in February of this y e a r , PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE Points in Tola! Inde* 250 - 25O 200 - 200 150 - 150 100 - S 0* N 1948 * PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE [1935-39 = 100, seasonally adjusted] Points in total index, 1935-39 average for total = 100 Indexes, 1935-39=100 Period Manufactures Total industrial Nonduraproduction Total Durable goods ble goods 1935-39 monthly average. 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947: August September October November December. 1948: January February March April May June July August _ _ September 1 October * 1 Preliminary estimate. 100 239 203 170 187 182 186 190 192 192 193 194 191 188 192 192 186 191 191 195 100 258 214 177 194 188 192 197 199 198 200 201 200 195 197 198 191 197 198 201 100 360 274 192 220 210 216 223 224 229 229 226 229 217 221 222 219 222 223 228 100 176 166 165 . 172 169 172 176 179 173 178 180 177 177 178 179 169 176 178 179 Manufactures Mining 100 132 137 134 149 150 153 155 155 156 154 155 142 147 ' 162 159 153 159 154 159 Durable goods 38 136 104 73 83 80 82 84 85 87 87 86 87 82 84 84 83 84 85 87 Nondurable goods 47 83 78 77 81 79 80 83 84 81 83 84 83 83 83 84 79 82 83 84 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Mining 15 20 21 21 23 23 23 24 24 24 23 24 22 22 25 24 23 24 23 24 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE MANUFACTURES Steel production reached a new postwar peak in September. Production of transportation equipment was curtailed by the auto-suppliers' strike. Output of lumber declined somewhat. ENT OWI935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT PERCENT OF 1935- 39 A V E R A G E TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT LUMBER AND PRODUCTS MONTHLY A V E R A G E 700 600 500 1935-39 1943 1945 IRON AND STEEL MONTHLY A V E R A G E 200 100 1935-39 1935-39 1943 1945 1948 1943 1945 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. [1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted] Transportation equipment Period 1935—39 monthly average 1943 monthly average. 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947* August September October November December 1948: January February March April M a v -iv-iaj June ._ Julv August _ 1 _ September « , . » _ _ ... - ___ _ __ . _ . Lumber and products Iron and steel 100 734 487 232 230 100 130 110 130 144 100 208 183 150 195 213 227 232 234 244 142 140 143 150 153 188 195 204 202 205 244 232 240 237 218 223 235 231 227 155 150 151 145 142 140 142 149 145 203 203 207 177 207 207 200 207 213 1 Preliminary estimate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 11 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE MANUFACTURES Textile production rose further in September from the low summer levels. Food production covered most of the August drop. Petroleum output was reduced by the west coast strike. PERCENT OF 1935-39 A V E R A G E re- PERCENT OF 1935-39 A V E R A G E PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS 300 MONTHLY A V E R A G E 200 1935-39 43 45 1935-39 43 45 MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS CHEMICAL PRODUCTS 400 400 200 200 1935-39 43 1935-39 45 43 45 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL R E S E R V E SYSTEM. —11 [1935-39= 100, seasonally adjusted] Textiles and products Period Petroleum and coal products Manufactured food products Chemical products 1935—39 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 100 153 146 162 163 100 185 235 173 193 100 145 151 150 157 100 384 284 236 251 1947' August September October November December 154 160 164 172 163 201 203 204 205 208 157 158 156 158 158 249 248 248 251 254 179 179 175 174 176 174 154 166 170 214 215 211 213 220 221 217 222 212 158 160 158 157 159 163 160 154 158 255 252 250 249 249 256 251 259 255 1948* January February March April _ _ _ M ay June July August September 1 1 - __ _ _ - Preliminary estimate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. NEW CONSTRUCTION The volume of construction activity declined somewhat in October due principally nonresidential field. MILLIONS to drops in the OF DOLLARS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2,000 2,000 — 1,500 1,500 1,000 1,000 500 -;:;!ij;- 1939 1942 1944 1945 1946 1947 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. M J J COUNCIL OF A S O ECONOMIC N D ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] Private construction Total new construction Period 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average- _ _ 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average _ _ _ 1947: September _ _ _ __ October November December 1948: January February _ _ March April May __ _ _ _ . - _ June _ _ _ . July - _ August . __ September October 2_ __ _ ___ 1 2 S2171-—48 ;; 526 1, 118 345 401 871 1, 165 1,423 ,497 ,432 ,320 , 157 ,009 , 166 1,311 1,461 1, 616 1,715 1, 799 1,783 1,704 Total private Residential (nonfarm) 317 251 152 226 688 908 1,086 1, 129 1, 141 1,097 948 837 940 1, 024 1, 120 1, 235 1,318 1,354 1,.336 1,265 176 110 45 57 265 438 540 590 630 610 500 400 475 525 585 635 680 695 685 660 Other 141 141 107 169 422 469 546 539 511 487 448 437 466 499 535 600 638 659 651 605 Federal, State, and local l 208 867 193 174 184 257 337 368 291 223 209 172 226 287 341 381 397 445 447 439 Includes public residential construction. Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor. 13 NEW HOUSING STARTS * The number of housing starts declined again in September. the figure was' below that of the previous year. For the second successive month THOUSANDS THOUSANDS OF UNITS OF 100 UNITS 100 n 80 . RURAL NONFARM URBAK J M J 1947 1946 J J A S 1948 •X- NEW NONFARM FAMILY DWELLING UNITS. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S LABOR. New nonfarm units (conventional and prefabricated) l Period Total 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average __ _ _- 1947: April irxo,j Mav _ _ _ - J une July August _ September October November December 1948: Januarv. February March __ April May _ June 2 Julvs August2 September 1 2 _ _ - _ __ ___ __ _ _ ___ _ __ __ _ 2 _ __ Urban Rural nonfarm 64, 683 71, 125 41, 164 40, 125 23, 520 31, 000 67, 900 73, 100 79, 400 81, 100 86, 800 93, 800 94, 000 79, 800 58, 800 38, 000 39, 300 43, 000 44, 500 47, 400 50, 300 53, 200 48, 000 36, 300 29, 900 33, 800 36, 400 36, 600 39, 400 43, 500 40, 800 31, 800 22, 500 52, 600 49, 600 75, 100 98, 800 99, 400 96, 000 94, 000 83, 000 81, 000 30, 400 28, 800 42, 000 54, 400 56, 700 52, 900 49, 700 22, 200 20, 800 33, 100 44, 400 42, 700 43, 100 44, 300 New nonfarm family dwelling units. Temporary units are excluded after 1947 when the program ended. Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Labor. EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Nonagricultural business expenditures on plant and equipment this year will probably be 15 percent more than in 1947. Business plans for 4th quarter show a decline of about $1 billion (annual rate) from 3rd quarter, with most of the decrease in expenditures for manufacturing construction. BILLIONS OF DOL-LARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 25 ANNUAL TOTALS TRANSPORTATION AND ELECTRIC AND GAS " FUTILITIES 1939 1941 1945 "* NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION. SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE C O M M I S S I O N AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. COUNCIL OF E C O N O M I C A D V I S E R S [Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal] Transportation Total * Period Manufacturing Mining Railroad 1939 1941 1945 1946 1947 1948 3 _ 1947: First quarter _ Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter _ _ -_ _ - --- ~—__ _ _ _ _ --_ - _ _ _ _ _ _ 5, 200 8, 190 6,630 12, 040 16, 180 18, 630 1,930 3,400 3,210 5,910 7,460 8,030 380 680 440 560 690 770 280 560 550 570 910 1,320 280 340 320 660 800 680 480 710 630 1,040 1,900 2,540 1,850 2,490 1,480 3,300 4,430 5,280 5,800 7,400 7,480 9, 160 600 640 720 840 640 880 920 1,200 720 920 800 760 1,320 1,800 2,000 2,480 3,600 4,120 4,640 5,360 7,200 8, 560 8,640 7,760 720 800 800 720 1,080 1,200 1,440 1,520 720 760 680 600 2,000 2,560 2,760 2,800 4,960 5,360 5,440 5,320 _ _ 12, 640 15, 760 16, 560 19, 760 1948: First quarter Second quarter4 _ _ _ _ Third quarter Fourth quarter 4 _ _ _ _ 16, 680 19, 240 19, 800 18, 760 _ Other Electric and Commercial miscelgas utilities and laneous 2 1 Excludes agriculture. 2 Includes trade, service, finance, and communication. 3 Based on actual expenditures for first half and estimates 4 for second half. Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business. NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. Figures for 1939—44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other data. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000. Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted). 15 NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES New rate BILLIONS issues in 3rd quarter of 1948 were below those of the previous as a year ago. Three-fifths of the proceeds were earmarked for quarter but at the same plant and equipment. OF D O L L A R S BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3 ,0 3.0 QUARTERLY A V E R A G E 2.5 2.0 2.0 1939 SOURCE: SECURITIES 1 1943 1945 AND E X C H A N G E COMMISSION. 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] Proposed uses of net proceeds Estimated net proceeds Period New "money Plant and equipment Total 1939 quarterly 1943 quarterly 1945 quarterly 1946 quarterly 1947 quarterly average _ _ _ average average average average- _ _ 1947: First quarter. Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948: First quarter __ Second quarter Third quarter _ 270 820 1,068 39 42 111 291 261 448 210 1,206 869 460 1,018 1,605 1, 266 2,221 673 932 797 1,867 396 636 649 1, 542 278 296 148 325 344 672 469 354 1,614 1,663 1,266 1,400 1,353 1, 046 845 1,080 765 555 274 '2 80 214 309 221 __ _ __ _ __ __ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1 Includes small amount for other purposes. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Securities and Exchange Commission. 16 Retirement of debt and stock 1 43 35 159 529 806 529 287 1,476 1,689 1,528 _ Working capital 81 77 INVENTORIES AND SALES M a n u f a c t u r i n g s a l e s c o n t i n u e d t o r i s e in S e p t e m b e r ; r e t a i l s a l e s , s e a s o n a l l y adjusted, have shown little c h a n g e since spring. BILL IONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS MANUFACTURING WHOLESALE 30 30 NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION +*** NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL V A R I A T I O N •••*' INVENTORIES* 20 20 ^/ _^^ SALES* 1 0 1 0 SALES "s. ^^^^ ^^^^^^ *x INVENTORIES 0 i i l l l I l l 1l I 1 i I l 1 1 || M IS46 BILL IONS OF DOLLARS 1 1 1 1947 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 l | i | ( | j 0 1948 l l | I PERCE NT 1 1947 l j i 1 ! 1 1 ! I 1 1948 OF 1935-39 AVERAGE DEPARTMENT STORES RETAIL 30 400 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SEASONALLY 20 ^^/ ^ i i i i .J»J_J..J_j Li.Ll.l 1946 LI .L.LnUL.L™ 1947 i.. i LL_L j J L 1 X ><"**"" ^sy X 200 1 0 ADJUSTED SALES ** 300 INVENTORIES !L O M | | | 1 L 1 | 1946 / INVENTORIES** -i | 1 , ,| i , 1 L...1 1 1 L 00 IS48 ^ LJ , 1 1 1946 ! 1 ,J J _L ^L, _...', U,._!,,.i,, L J. J«,L.l L. 1947 1948 BOOK VAIUC Of INVCNTORICS. £ND OF MCr>TH 50URCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYST Manufacturing l Period Inventories 3 Sales * i Retail 2 Wholesale 1 Inventories 3 Sales * Inventories * Department stores Sales 4 1 2 _ _ ___ 18, 773 19, 468 21, 500 23, 432 26, 479 26, 846 27, 051 27, 055 27, 397 27, 627 28, 020 28, 501 28, 768 29, 064 29, 161 29, 437 29, 726 30,218 30, 434 30, 500 10, 712 11, 132 13, 055 14, 634 15, 063 14, 361 15, 257 16, 597 18, 082 16, 554 17, 523 16, 552 16, 225 18, 117 17, 229 16, 777 17, 871 16, 387 18, 100 18, 700 4,309 4, 337 5, 172 5,823 6,837 6,699 7,068 7,233 7,342 7,467 7, 545 7,850 7,885 7,869 7,777 7,801 8,011 8,044 8,223 5, 338 5,575 6,321 7, 118 6,800 7,096 7,072 7,763 8,716 8,013 8,262 7,692 7, 121 7,726 7,652 7,389 7, 766 7,796 8, 160 Sales 1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted 5 Millions of dollars 1946: March.. June September,-. December _ „. 1947: June - -, -July August __ _ _ September October November December „_ _ « 1948: January . _ February March. April May June July 6 6 _. _ __ August _ _ September ® Inventories 8,023 8,917 9, 995 11,049 11,948 11,925 11,944 12, 073 12, 435 12, 621 12, 953 13, 384 13, 751 14, 040 13, 907 13, 951 14, 065 14, 080 14, 108 7,796 8, 164 8,876 9,258 9. 810 9; 822 9,786 10, 264 10, 292 10, 426 10, 620 10, 464 10,463 10, 658 10, 891 10, 620 10, 862 10, 857 10, 870 10, 885 177 210 226 274 242 231 228 232 252 273 285 289 306 313 309 297 284 273 266 255 275 272 276 288 287 284 294 279 302 303 286 286 285 306 310 312 316 311 6 Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for month and retail book value of inventories, end of j month. 6 Preliminar}7 estimate. Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Not adjusted for seasonal variation. Adjusted for seasonal variation. 3 4 Book value, end of month. Total for month. 17 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS Total exports and the export surplus decreased further in September. The value of imports fell back to the July level. MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,600 1,600 MONTHLY AVERAGES 1,400 — 1,400 1,200 I,2OO 1,000 — I,OOC 800 — 600 400 400 1936-38 1943 J 1945 F M A M J J A S C N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M 1947 RC.COROEO MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS, AND CIV RECOHDEO GENERAL MEHCHAhOtSE IMPORTS J J A S NAVY. Exports l Period Imports * Excess of exports 1936—38 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 247 1,080 877 849 1,277 207 282 346 410 478 40 798 531 439 799 1947: June July August Sep temb er October November December 1,320 1,265 1,265 1, 185 1,305 1, 185 1, 172 463 450 400 473 492 455 603 857 815 865 712 813 730 569 1,092 1,086 1, 141 1, 123 1, 103 1,013 1,022 988 926 546 582 666 528 549 616 559 598 558 546 504 475 595 554 397 463 390 368 . __ __ . _ _ _ _ -_ 1 Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas. *3 Recorded general merchandise imports. Data became available after chart was prepared. Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy. 8 D COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S [Millions of dollars] __ - - N i SUPPLIES ran OCCUPIED AREAS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE 1948: January February March April May _- _ _ June ____ July August September 3 O 1948 PURCHASING POWER NATIONAL INCOME National income continued to move up in the 3rd quarter of 1948. significantly above the 3rd quarter of last year. All components were B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS 250 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 ANNUAL TOTALS 200 200 CORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION :• ADJUSTMENT. -:-:•:•:•:-::::::::::•: I 50 I 50 1944 1939 1945 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars] Period 1939 1944 1945 1946 1947 _ . Total National Income 72.5 182.4 181.7 179.3 202.5 Compensation of employees Proprietors' and rental income 47.8 121.1 122.9 117.3 127.5 14.7 34.1 36.0 41.8 46.0 Corporate profits and invenNet interest tory valuation adjustment 4.2 3. 1 3.0 3.4 4.3 5.8 24.0 19.8 16.8 24.7 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1947: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 197.3 199. 3 200. 6 212.8 125.0 125.3 127.6 132.2 46.4 44.6 44.4 48.6 4. 1 4.2 4.4 4.5 21.8 25.2 24.3 27.5 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter 1 215. 1 221.4 225.6 133.7 133.9 139.3 50.6 51. 9 50.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 26.2 30.9 31.0 1 Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment for third quarter, 1948). 19 CORPORATE PROFITS Corporate profits so far this year are running above the 1947 levels. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 40 ANNUAL TOTALS ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 3 0 1929 * 1939 1943 HO ALLOWANCE FOR INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT. SOURCE: COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, ( e x c e p t third quarter of 1948). [Billions of dollars] Corporate profits before taxes Period 1929 1939 1943 1946 1947 _ -._ _ -_ _ -_ 9.8 6.5 24.5 21.8 29.8 Corporate tax liability 1.4 1.5 14.2 9.0 11.7 Corporate profits after taxes Total 8.4 5.0 10.4 12.8 18. 1 Dividend payments 5.8 3.8 4.5 5.6 6.9 Undistributed profits 2.6 1.2 5.9 7.2 11.2 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1947: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter.- ._ « _ ._ 1948: First quarter __ __ Second quarter1 _ _ Third quarter _ 28.9 28.8 29. 1 32.4 11.4 11.3 11.4 12.7 17.5 17.5 17.7 19.7 6.4 6. 7 6.9 7. 1 11. 1 10.8 10.8 12.6 31.4 33.4 35.0 12.2 13.0 13.6 19.2 20.4 21.4 7.3 7. 3 7.4 11.9 13. 1 14.0 ^Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment. taxes and inventory valuation adjustment. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except.. 1948, third quarter). 20 See p. 19 for profits before PERSONAL INCOME Personal income in September remained at the August level of $214.6 billion (annual rate). BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S 250 ANNUAL RATES,SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 200 200 I 50 I 50 I939 * I944 J IS45 F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M I946 J J A S O N D J F M A I947 M J J A * * ' 'S 0 N D 1948 TERMINAL LEAVE BOND CASHING STARTED IN SEPTEMBER, 1947 SOURCE: D E P A R T M E N T OF C O M M E R C E . [Billions of dollars] Total personal income Period 1939 1944 1945 1946 1947 _ .- _ .._ .. _ _ -_ 72. 6 164.5 170. 3 178. 1 195. 2 Salaries, wages, Proprietors' and rental and other labor income income 45.7 116. 1 116.8 111. 4 121.9 14. 7 34. 1 36. 0 41.8 46.0 Dividends and interest 9.2 10.6 11. 4 13.5 15. 6 Social security and GI payments 3.0 3.6 6.2 11.4 11.7 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1947" August September October November December 1948: January February March _ April May June_ July ___ August _ September _ _ _ _ > _ _ l 190. 8 206.2 200. 0 201.4 207.7 121.9 123.8 124. 6 127.4 129. 3 42. 8 45.0 47. 5 47. 1 51.3 15. 6 16.2 15.9 16. 1 16.2 10.5 21. 2 12.0 10. 8 10.9 209.4 206.8 205.6 207. 4 207.2 212. 3 213. 0 214. 6 214. 6 129.4 128. 9 127.6 127.0 128.8 131. 7 133. 9 136.4 136.6 52.4 50.0 49.3 51.9 50. 7 52. 8 51. 0 50.0 49. 8 16.5 16.6 16. 6 16.7 16.8 16.8 17.0 17.3 17.6 11. 1 11.3 12. 1 11.8 10.9 11.0 11.0 10. 9 10. 6 1 Preliminary estimate. Data became available after chart was prepared. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. 21 CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING The 3rd quarter increase in consumer income and expenditures was attributable to high-level employment, wage increases, and tax reductions. The rate of saving continued up. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2 50 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES. S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D 1939 1940 X PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES X * PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE- COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S [Billions of dollars] Disposable personall income Period 70.2 75.7 92.0 116.2 131.6 145.6 149.4 159.2 173.6 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945. 1946 1947 Less: Personal consumption expenditures Equals: Personal saving 67. 5 72. 1 82.3 90. 8 101.6 111.4 122.8 147.4 164.8 2. 7 3.7 9.8 25.4 30.0 34.2 26.6 11.8 8.8 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1947: First quarter _ Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948: First quarter— Second quarter2 Third quarter 1 2 __ __ _ 169.7 168.2 175.0 180.9 158. 1 164.2 165.6 171. 1 11.6 4. 1 9.4 9.7 183.7 187.3 191.8 172.0 175. 1 179.0 11. 7 12.2 12. 8 Income less taxes. Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. 22 PER CAPITA INCOME Real purchasing power per capita for the 3rd quarter changed little from the average for the first half of 1948. DOLLARS 1,600 DOLLARS 1,600 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1947 DOLLARS** 1,200 1,200 CURRENT DOLLARS 1939 1940 1942 1941 1944 1943 1945 ##" CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE 1 9 4 7 = 100. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF 2 3 1946 *## PRELIMINARY 4 1 2 3 1947 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS LABOR. Period Current dollars _ , . _ _. 1947 dollars * $536 574 691 863 964 1,054 1,070 1,127 1,205 $859 913 1,045 1, 179 1,242 1,338 1,326 1,288 1,205 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1947: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter 3 _ _ . ___ _ _ „ _ 1948 ESTIMATES. Per capita disposable personal income l 1939 1940 1941 1942 . ._ 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947_._ 4 Consumers' price index, 1947=100 62.4 62.9 66. 1 73.2 77. 6 78.8 80.7 87.5 100.0 Not adjusted for seasonal variation 1, 186 1, 170 1,212 1,246 1,224 1, 191 1,200 1,200 96.9 98.2 101.0 103.8 1,261 1,279 1,306 1,198 1, 195 1, 194 105.3 107.0 109.4 1 2 3 Income less taxes. Current dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base 1947=100. Preliminary estimate. Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor. 23 AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS Average hourly earnings continued to rise in August as further wage D reliminary September data indicate a further rise in manufacturing DOLLA RS PER HOUR DOLLARS settlements were earnings. PER HOUR MANUFACTURING RETAIL TRADE 1.50 1.50 1947 DOLLARS* 1 00 reached. _, —--* 'L^^r —^ 1947 DOLLARS* 1.00 CUR RENT DOLLARS MH. -%%^ 1.^ .-^uaJ-^'WC _—- ^T f *"*""""" "• ^CURRENT DOLLARS .50 50 0 i i . i i 1 i , . i i 1947 i i I i i 1i i i i I 1946 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 0 1 I I 1 1 1948 1 1 1 ! t I 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 i 1 , i , , , 1 , , , ., 1 1947 1948 PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION BITUMINOUS COAL MINING 2.00 2.00 /\ 1947 jS 1947 DOLLARS* CUF ---X/ . -"• --~^«.—X --* —.-J 1.50 ^^^^^^T^''^ 1.50 CURRENT DOLLARS RENT DOLLARS 1.00 1.00 50 0 i 1946 .50 i i i i i I i i i i i i i i i i 1 i i i . i 1946 1947 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 0 1 i i t i i 1i i i i ( i i i i i 1 i i i i i 1946 J947 1948 ! I 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1948 # CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE 1947- IOO. SOURCE: COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. [Selected industries] Manufacturing Period 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 194T monthly average 1947: July August September October November December 1948* January February. March . April _ May June - -July. 4 August _ September 4 Current dollars __ - -- - $0. 633 .729 1.019 1.023 . 084 . 221 .230 .236 .249 1. 258 1.268 1.278 1.285 1. 287 1.289 1.292 1. 301 1.316 1.333 1.349 1.363 1947 dollars 2 $1. 014 1. 103 1.293 1.268 1.239 1. 221 1.236 1.227 1. 214 1.223 1.224 1.218 1.212 1.223 1.230 1.215 1. 215 1. 220 1. 222 1. 231 1. 244 Retail trade Current dollars $0. 536 .568 .724 .773 .878 .991 1.003 1. 003 1.012 1.013 1. 025 1.016 1.044 1.050 1.044 1.055 1. 064 1.070 1.077 1. 080 1 Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects. * Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1947 = 100. Source: Department of Labor. 24 1947 dollars 2 $0. 859 .859 .919 .958 1.003 .991 1.008 . 996 .983 .984 .989 .969 .985 .998 . 996 .992 . 993 .992 . 987 .985 Bituminous coal mining Current dollars $0. 886 .993 1. 186 1.240 1.401 1.644 1.740 1.787 1.819 1.798 1.851 1.826 1.847 1. 826 1.842 2 1. 821 1. 841 1.850 1. 941 1. 976 2 4 1947 dollars * $1. 420 1.502 1.505 1.537 1. 601 1.644 1. 749 1.775 1.768 1.747 1.787 1.741 1.742 1.736 1.758 3 1. 713 1. 719 1. 715 1.779 1.803 Private building construction * Current dollars $0. 932 1.010 1. 319 1.379 1. 478 1. 676 1.676 1. 694 1.723 1.743 1.765 1.774 1.781 1.806 1.805 1.818 1. 835 1.858 1. 890 1.906 1947 dollars 2 $1. 494 1.528 1. 674 1.709 1. 689 1.676 1. 684 1. 682 1.674 1. 694 1.704 1.691 1.680 1.717 1.722 1.710 1. 713 1. 722 1.732 1.791 Based on pay period during coal stoppage. Preliminary estimate. AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS Increases in average weekly earnings were general in August. Preliminary data for September show manufacturing earnings off slightly, due to a decrease in hours worked. DOLl.ARS PER WEEK DOLLARS PER WEEK RETAIL TRADE MANUFACTURING 60 60 -^ — -\ CURRENT DOLLARS^ _^~^—~ 40 _ ^<^^z&\. ^— / CURRENT DOLLARS \ 40 1947 DOLLARS* * "~ 20 , . .1,1 ,. ,. 1 i i i i i 1 i i i i I 1948 t i i i i i i i i ii 1946 1947 1947 DOLLARS ** 0 i i i i i 1 i i i i i 1946 BITUMINOUS COAL MINING I 1 1 I ! i i i i i 1 i i i i i i948 1 I 1 1 1 1947 PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION 100 IOO 80 ^ ****%it x 60 ^ 20 0 ^— /" CUR RENT DOLLARS m ^r=r^ v >- J\^x***-^* f .,-.^y /— 80 v^ CURRENT DOLLARS 1947 DOLLARS" * 40 20 20 t 1 i I i 1 I I I I I 1946 SOURCE: / 60 1947 DOLLARS ** 4O 0 DEPARTMENT 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1947 "-- ^-.^2~***\ I I I I 1 1 i i l i i 0 1948 1 I 1 I i [ | | i I L_ I 1 1 1 1 1 II 1946 1947 OF LABOR. 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 I 1 1 i 1 1948 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Selected industries] Manufacturing Period 1939 monthly average.. 1941 monthly average. . 1944 monthly average— 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average— 1947 -monthly average 1947- July August September October . November. . „ December . 1948* January February March April Mav June _ _ July 4 August _4 _ _ _ September 1 2 Current dollars $23. 86 29. 58 46.08 44. 39 43.74 49.25 48. 98 49. 17 50.47 51.05 51.29 52. 69 52.07 51.75 52.07 51. 79 51. 86 52. 85 53.01 54. 12 54. 06 1947 dollars a $38. 24 44.75 58.48 55. 01 49.99 49.25 49.23 48.83 49.05 49.61 49.51 50.23 49. 12 49. 19 49. 69 48. 72 48.42 48. 98 48.59 49. 38 49.32 Retail trade Current dollars $21. 17 21.94 26.58 28. 31 32.55 36. 67 37. 99 38.14 37.06 36.74 37. 14 37.51 37. 62 38.33 38.89 39. 27 39. 84 40. 52 41. 19 41. 19 1947 dollars * $33. 93 33. 19 33. 73 35. 08 37.20 36. 67 38. 18 37.87 36.02 35.70 35.85 35. 76 35.49 36.44 37. 11 36. 94 37. 20 37. 55 37. 75 37. 58 Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects. Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1947=100. Source: Department of Labor. Bituminous coal mining Current dollars 1947 dollars2 $23. 88 30. 86 51.27 52.25 58.03 66.86 54.87 70.23 71. 19 71. 91 71.77 75.22 75.78 70.54 74.84 3 49. 53 74. 08 73.87 67. 64 77. 87 1 4 $38. 27 46.69 65.06 64.75 66. 32 66.86 55. 15 69.74 69. 18 69.88 69.28 71.71 71.49 67.05 71.41 3 46. 59 69. 17 68.46 62.00 71. 05 Private building construction ' Current dollars $30. 39 35. 14 52. 18 53.73 56.24 63. 30 63. 60 64.71 65.36 66.36 64.55 67. 31 66.28 66.31 66.89 67. 31 68. 13 70.49 71.38 72.09 1947 dollars » $48. 70 53. 16 66.22 66. 58 64.27 63.30 63.92 64.26 63.52 64.49 62.31 64. 17 62.53 63.03 63.83 63. 32 63. 61 65. 33 65.43 65. 78 Based on pay period during coal stoppage. Preliminary estimate. 25 FARM INCOME Farm income i n c r e a s e d s e a s o n a l l y in S e p t e m b e r . f l e c t i n g a d e c r e a s e in f e e d prices. P r i c e s paid w e r e d o w n a little, r e - BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4 1939 40 # CASH RECEIPTS SOURCE: 41 BILLIONS 42 43 44 FROM MARKETING AND GOVERNMENT J 45 F M A M J J A S O D J F M A M J J A S O N D J 1 2 8 4 M A M COUNCIL DEPARTMENT OF A G R I C U L T U R E . 1939 monthly average 1940 monthly average 1941 monthlv average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947: August September October November December 1948: January February. _ _ March April May June July August— 4 September _ _ F - _ _ __ - - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Farm income (millions of current dollars) * Prices paid by farmers (incl. interest and taxes) 1939 = 100 2 J A S O N D 723 761 981 100. 0 100. 8 106. 5 121. 0 130. 6 136. 3 138. 7 155. 6 186. 3 188. 7 191. 9 192. 7 194.4 197. 6 202. 4 200. 0 199. 2 200. 8 201. 6 202. 4 202. 4 202. 4 201. 6 1, 340 1, 678 1, 753 1, 857 2 136 2, 542 2, 562 3, 118 3, 818 3, 276 2, 843 2, 571 1, 862 1, 932 2 075 2, 119 2, 437 2, 693 2, 722 3,132 OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S Farm income (millions of 1939 dollars) 3 Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments. Converted from the reported base, 1910-14 = 100, to the base 1939=100. Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, and taxes, 1939= 100. Preliminary. Source: Department of Agriculture, J PAYMENTS. Period 26 N OF DOLLARS 4 723 755 921 1, 107 1, 285 1, 286 1,339 1, 373 1, 364 1, 358 1,625 1,981 1, 685 1, 439 1, 270 931 970 1, 033 1,051 1, 204 1, 331 1,345 1,554 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Durable purchases rose nearly 8 percent in the 3rd quarter, as increased output made more goods available. Expenditures for nondurables and services were also up somewhat. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 200 ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL TOTALS 1944 1939 1945 PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE SOURCE: DEPARTMENT C O U N C I L OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S OF COMMERCE. [Billions of dollars] Personal consumption expenditures Period Nondurable goods Total 67. 5 111. 4 122.8 147.4 164.8 t Q3Q 1Q4.4 1Q4.C 1946 1 Q47 35. 3 67. 5 75.4 87. 5 96.5 Durable goods 6. 7 6. 9 8.3 16.2 21.0 Services 25.5 37.0 39. 2 43.6 47. 3 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1947: First Q uarter 1948: "First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter ^ - - — —- — 158. 1 164.2 165. 6 171.1 92.5 96.3 96.8 100.2 19.6 21. 1 21.1 22. 1 46.0 46.7 47.7 48.8 - — - — — _ _ _ 172. 0 175. 1 179. 0 101. 0 102.4 103. 5 21.4 22.3 24.0 49.6 50.4 51. 5 1 Preliminary estimate. will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce, NoTE ._^Detail 27 CONSUMER CREDIT Consumer c r e d i t i n c r e a s e d again f r o m the end of August t o t h e end of S e p t e m b e r . It was too soon a f t e r the reimposition of instalment c r e d i t controls on S e p t e m b e r 20, to d e t e r mine t h e i r e f f e c t o n c o n s u m e r c r e d i t . BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 16 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 16 14 12 10 -6 1929 1939 1941 J F M A M J 1943 END OF Y E A R J A S O N D J F M A M J 1946 J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J 1947 A S O N D 1948 END OF MONTH 'SINGLE PAYMENT LOANS AND SERVICE CREDIT [Billions of dollars] End of period 1929 1939 1941 1943 1945 1946 1947 1947: August September __ October November December 1948: January February _ _ March April May June _ July August _ September 3 _ _ 28 Total consumer credit outstanding Instalment credit l 7. 6 3.2 4.4 1. 7 1. 5 2.3 2.0 6.2 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.8 6.2 6.2 6.3 3.6 2.8 8.0 9. 9 5.3 _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ ___ _ __ 6. 6 10. 1 13. 4 11. 5 11.7 12. 1 12.7 13. 4 13. 1 13.0 13. 4 13. 6 13.8 14. 1 14.2 14.4 14.7 5. 9 1. 9 3. 9 Charge accounts 1.8 1. 5 3. 1 2. 9 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.2 Other consumer credit 2 2.7 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.3 3. 1 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 3. 6 3.6 3.6 3. 1 3! 6 3.6 7.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.2 7.7 3.2 6. 5 6.7 7.0 7. 1 7. 5 3. 1 3.6 3. 6 3. 6 3.7 3.7 3.7 1 Includes automobile and other sale credit and repair and modernization loans insured by Federal Housing Administration. 2 Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit. 3 Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS Commercial bank loans increased $1 billion from the end of August to the end of Government security holdings dropped more than $2 billion September. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 125 125 TOTAL (Ail commercial banks) 100 100 75 50 25 25 1929 1939 J 1945 F M A M J J A S ' O N D J F M A M J J A S ^ O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 1948 END OF MONTH END OF YEAR PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE :il of Economic A d v i s e r s [Billions of dollars] End of period 1929 1939 1945 1946 1947 _ _ Investments Total loans and investments Bank loans 49. 5 40. 7 124.0 114.0 116.4 36. 0 17.2 26. 1 31. 1 38. 1 Total 13. 5 23.4 97.9 82.9 78.3 U.S. Government securities 48 16.3 90.6 74.8 69. 3 Other securities 8.7 7. 1 7.3 8. 1 9.0 34.9 35.5 36. 8 37.6 38. 1 79. 1 79.7 79. 5 79.0 78.2 70. 3 70.8 70. 5 70. 1 69.2 8.8 8.9 9.0 8.9 9.0 38.2 116. 6 1948 1 January 38.7 115. 5 February _ 38. 9 March 113. 6 38. 8 114. 3 April _ 39.4 114. 5 May „ . 39.9 113. 9 June 40. 1 114. 8 July 40. 6 115. 1 August _ _ 41.7 September * _ 113. 6 1 Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 78.4 76.9 74.7 75.5 75. 1 74.0 74.6 74.5 71.9 69.4 67.9 65.5 66.3 65.9 64.8 65.3 65. 1 62.5 9.0 9.0 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.4 1947: August September.. October November _. December - _ „ _ „_ 114.0 115.2 116. 3 116. 6 116.3 29 MONEY SUPPLY Most o f t h e $ 6 0 0 million i n c r e a s e d i n S e p t e m b e r money s u p p l y r e s u l t e d f r o m an i n c r e a s e in G o v e r n m e n t d e p o s i t s . BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 150 150 125 — it 1929 1939 1941 1943 1946 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S Q N D J F M A M J J A S * O N D END OF YEAR 1945 1946 1947 1948 END OF MONTH [Billions of dollars] Total money supply End of period 1929 1939 1941 1943_. 1945 1946 1947 1947: August- __ September October,r November December 1948: January February March April May June July August September3 _ _._ _._ _ 26.5 37.0 50. 5 90. 1 126. 9 113. 1 115. 1 111. 3 112. 5 113. 5 114.4 115. 1 113. 7 112.0 109.6 110. 9 111.0 110. 5 111. 2 111.8 112,4 Currency outside banks 3.6 6. 4 9.6 18. 8 26. 5 26, 7 26. 5 26. 2 26.4 26.3 26.6 26. 5 25. 8 25. 7 25.6 25.4 25.4 25.6 25. 5 25. 6 25.7 Adjusted demand deposits 1 22.8 29. 8 39.0 60.8 75. 9 83. 3 87. 1 83.4 84. 2 85 4 85.9 87. 1 86. 6 84.6 81. 6 83. 0 83.2 82. 7 83. 4 83. 8 83. 9 U. S. Government deposits 3 0.2 .8 1.9 10.4 24. 6 3.1 1. 5 1. 7 1.9 1. 8 1.9 1. 5 1. 3 1.8 2.4 2. 5 2.4 2.2 2. 4 2.4 2.8 1 Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection. 2 Beginning December 1938, includes U. S. Treasurer's time deposits, open account. a Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 30 FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC The $1.3 billion excess of Federal cash receipts over cash payments for the 3rd quarter of the calendar year 1948 was just above the 2nd quarter e x c e s s . B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS 20 B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS 20 QUARTERLY TOTALS, NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL 2 2 3 3* 2 3 1947 J946 1948 SOURCE: TREASURY. DEPARTMENT COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC flDVISERS [Millions of dollars] Federal cash receipts from the public Calendar year by quarters 1946: First quarter. _ . _ Second quarter Third quarter _. Fourth quarter 1947: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter _ _ 1948: First quarter.. _ Second quarter Third quarter 1 1 _ _ _ Federal cash payments to the public Excess of receipts (+) or payments (— ) 14 11? 10 9, 153 089 375 868 13 13 9 8, 648 590 104 907 + 505 — 2 501 + 1 271 + 961 14 11, 10, 10 962 429 494 022 9 772 12, 197 10, 527 8, 677 + 5 190 — 768 — 33 + 1 345 15 758 11, 408 10, 344 9, 346 10, 176 9, 045 + 6 412 + 1 232 + 1,299 Preliminary estimate. Source: Treasury Department. For sale by the SupcrinLciidont of nocummt.s. 1'. S. (lovernment Printing Office, Washington 25, D. O. J'riw 16 cents 31