Full text of Economic Indicators : May 1997
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105th Congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators MAY mrmmm, fa (Includes data available as of June 4, 1997) Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers BANK OF CHICAGO UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1997 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) JIM SAXTON, New Jersey, Chairman CONNIE MACK, Florida, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES DONALD A. MANZULLO (Illinois) MARK SANFORD (South Carolina) MAC THORNBERRY (Texas) JOHN T. DOOLITTLE (California) JIM McCRERY (Louisiana) FORTNEY PETE STARK (California) LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana) MAURICE D. HINCHEY (New York) CAROLYN B. MALONEY (New York) SENATE WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) ROBERT F. BENNETT (Utah) ROD GRAMS (Minnesota) SAM BROWNBACK (Kansas) JEFF SESSIONS (Alabama) JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico) PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) CHARLES S. ROBB (Virginia) CHRISTOPHER FRENZE, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS JANET L. YELLEN, Chair ALICIA H. MUNNELL, Member JEFFREY A. FRANKEL, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—SlST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the Vnited States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949Chans prepared by the Art Production Section, Design and Graphics Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $3.00 a single copy ($3.75 foreign), or by subscription at $33.00 per year ($41.25 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 For sale by the U.S. Government Printing Office Superintendent of Documents, Mail Stop: SSOP, Washington, DC 20402-9328 ISBN 0-16-055088-2 11 TOTAL AND GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT In the first quarter of 1997, according to revised estimates, current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) rose 8.1 percent (annual rate), real GDP (GDP in chained 1992 dollars) rose 5.8 percent, and the implicit pric© deflator rose 2.2 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE| BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 8,000 SEASCNAilY ADJUSTED ANNUAIRATK 8,000 / . 7,600 7,600 / 7,200 7,200 /- ' —• ** 6,800 • — ^--^ GDP IN CHAINED (1992) DOLLARS 6,400 6,000 _, ^" 6,800 >-r- -, _ _ _ r^~ ^< 6,400 6,000 -/" X~ ' 5,600 5,600 ,-~~ " x 5,200 —' /\ / GDP /IN CURRENT DOLLARS X X 4,800 5,200 X --._ x /* 4,400 4,000 / 3,600 s 4,800 X 4,400 / 4,000 3,600 / 3,200 ^ 1 i 1 3,200 I 1 I 1982 1 1983 | 1 ! 1 1984 I ! 1985 \ 1 1 1986 1 ! 1987 1 i I 1988 1 I 1 1989 I i i 1 1990 1991 1 1 i i 1992 1993 ! i_ 1 I l 1994 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE \ \ I 1 1995 1996 i 1 \ i i 1997 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1988 1989 , 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1993- I H m IV 1994- I TJ III IV 1995- I II 1996- in rv I n Ill IV 1997- I' 1 Exports and imports Personal Gross of goods and services private eonGross domestic sumption domestic product expendi- investNet exports Exports Imports ment tures 5,049.6 5,438.7 5,743.8 5,916.7 6,244.4 6,553.0 6,935.7 7,253.8 7,576.1 6,442.6 6,506.2 6,574.3 6,688.7 6,776.1 6,890.5 6,993.1 7,083.2 7,149.8 7,204.9 7,309.8 7,350.6 7,426.8 7,545.1 7,616.3 7,716.1 7,867.7 3,349.7 3,594.8 3,839.3 3,975.1 4,219.8 4,454.1 4,700.9 4,924.9 5,151.4 4,367.6 4,424.8 4,481.0 4,543.1 4,600.9 4,666.2 4,738.3 4,798.2 4,840.6 4,910.5 4,957.9 4,990.5 5,060.5 5,139.4 5,165.4 5,240.3 5,337.3 773.9 -106.1 -80.4 829.2 -71.3 799.7 -20.5 736.2 -29.5 790.4 -62.7 871.1 -94.4 1,014.4 -94.7 1,065.3 -98.7 1,117.0 -47.9 843.6 -59.6 855.9 -74.5 873.8 911.2 -68.8 -78.8 957.6 -93.0 1,016.5 1,033.6 -107.0 1,050.1 -98.7 1,072.0 -108.7 1,050.3 -115.3 -87.6 1,074.8 -67.2 1,064.0 1,068.9 -86.3 -99.2 1,096.0 1,156.2 -120.2 -89.1 1,146,6 1,207.3 -106.7 GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. 447.2 509.3 557.3 601.8 639.4 657.8 719.1 807.4 855.2 646.9 660.4 645.3 678.7 678.9 707.4 729.2 761.0 776.1 797.3 819.0 837.0 839.5 850.0 844.3 887.0 904.8 553.2 589.7 628.6 622.3 669.0 720.5 813.5 902.0 953.9 694.8 720.0 719.8 747.5 757.6 800.4 836.1 859.6 884.8 912.6 906.6 904.2 925.8 949.2 964.5 976.0 1,011.5 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Total 1,032.0 1,095.1 1,176.1 1,225.9 1,263.8 1,290.4 1,314.7 1,358.3 1,406.4 1,279.3 1,285.1 1,294.1 1,303.2 1,296.4 1,300.8 1,328.2 1,333.5 1,345.8 1,359.4 1,364.6 1,363.4 1,383.7 1,408.8 1,414.8 1,418.3 1,429.9 Total 457.3 477.2 503.6 522.6 528.0 522.6 516.4 516.6 523.1 525.5 520.1 521.3 523.5 511.3 509.4 523.8 520.9 519.7 522.0 516.8 507.7 518.6 529.6 525.5 518.5 520.5 National Nondefense defense 354.0 360.6 373.1 383.5 375.8 362.7 352.0 345.5 347.1 365.7 362.7 361.2 361.3 346.7 349.3 362.3 349.7 347.6 351.7 345.7 337.1 343.9 353.7 348.8 341.9 336.5- 103.3 116.7 130.4 139.1 152.2 159.9 184.3 171.0 176.0 159.8 157.4 160.1 162.2 164,6 160.0 161.5 171.2 172.1 170.3 171.1 170.6 174.7 175.8 176.7 176.7 184.0 State and local 574.7 617.9 672.6 703.4 735.8 767.8 798.4 841.7 883.3 753.8 765.0 772.7 779.7 785.0 791.4 804.4 812.6 826.1 837.3 847.7 855.7 865.1 879.2 889.3 899.8 909.4 Final Gross sales of domestic purdomestic product chases ' Addendum: Gross national product 5,155.6 5,519.1 5,815.1 5,937.2 6,274.0 6,615.7 7,030.1 7,348.4 7,674.8 6,490.5 6,565.8 6,648.8 6,757.4 6,854.8 6,983.5 7,100.1 7,181.9 7,258.4 7.320.2 7J397.3 7,417.8 7,513.2 7,644.3 7,736.5 7,805.2 7,974.4 5,062.6 5,452.8 5,764.9 5,932.4 6,255.5 6,563.5 6,931.9 7,246.7 7,567,1 6,458.6 6,516.5 6,587.1 6,691.9 6,781.0 6,888.3 6,986.9 7,071.4 7,146.8 7,202.4 7,293.4 7,344.3 7,426.6 7,537.5 7,598.9 7,705.6 7,849.3 5,038.7 5,407.0 5,735.8 5,919.0 6,237.4 6,532.4 6,876.2 7,216.7 7,560.7 6,422.8 6,484.6 6,552.3 6,669.8 6,735.9 6,816.0 6,928.5 7,024.6 7,091.7 7,170.9 7,271.5 7,332.8 7,428.6 7,537.1 7,579.6 7,697.4 7,810.4 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1993- I n HI IV... 1994- I n m IV 1995- I .. . n in ... IV 1996- I n m. IV 1997- I' Gross domestic product 5,865.2 6,062.0 6,136.3 6,079.4 6,244.4 6,386.1 6,608.4 6,742.2 6,906.8 6,326.2 6,356.3 6,393.2 6,468.7 6,508.5 6,587.4 6,644.8 6,692.9 6,700.2 6,712.7 6,775.8 6,780.2 6,813.8 6,892.1 6,928.1 6,993.3 7,092.1 Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Nonresidential fixed investment 3,972.7 4,064.6 4,132.2 4,105.8 4,219.8 4,339.5 4,473.2 4,577.8 4,690.7 4,289.7 4,318.8 4,359.5 4,390.0 4,420.5 4,458.7 4,489.4 4,524.0 4,534.8 4,569.9 4,597.3 4,609.4 4,649.1 4,687.6 4,693.5 4,732.5 4,798.7 Residential fixed investment 566.0 588.8 585.2 547.7 557.9 593.6 652.1 714.3 766.8 577.5 586.4 593.1 617.6 628.5 639.5 660.5 679.7 704.4 710.5 719.0 723.3 743.5 750.5 781.4 792.0 813.8 Change in business inventories 252.5 243.2 220.6 193.4 225.6 242.7 268.9 262.8 276.7 Exports and imports of goods and services Federal Net exports 11.7 33.3 10.4 -3.0 7.0 19.0 58.9 32.7 13.6 -114.4 -82.7 -61.9 -22.3 -29.5 -72.0 -1057 -107.6 -113.6 18.5 -56.0 20.7 -64.4 19.4 -86.2 17.5 -81.5 40.8 -99.3 74.7 -107.3 64.6 -111.7 55.6 -104.4 53,7 -122.5 29.9 -121.4 33.5 -101.6 13.7 -84.9 -3.5 - 104.0 6.7 -114.7 34.1 -137.4 17.1 -98.4 51.4 -126.8 237.9 234.8 242.2 255.8 263.6 271.6 270.3 270.3 265.9 256.5 262.2 266.3 271.1 281.5 277.8 276.6 280.6 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Exports Imports Total Total 465.8 580.2 520.2 603.0 564.4 626.3 599.9 622.2 639.4 669.0 658.2 730.2 712.0 817.6 775.4 883.0 825.9 939.5 647.1 703.1 660.0 724.4 645.5 731.7 680,3 761.8 677.6 777.0 703.1 810.4 719.6 831.3 747.6 851.9 752.3 874.9 763.2 884.6 783.0 884.5 803.1 888.0 806.7 910.7 817.9 932.6 816.1 953.5 862.9 961.3 886.0 1,012.9 1 GIM* Iftss exports of goods and services plus imports i>f goods and services. Note.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. 1,180.9 1,213.9 1,250.4 1,258.0 1,263.8 1,261.0 1,260.0 1,260.2 1,270.6 1,257.7 1,258.4 1,261.6 1,266.2 1,252.4 1,249.8 1,271.2 1,266.6 1,262.7 1,265.1 1,263.4 1,249.6 1,254.7 1,278.2 1,276.1 1,273.4 1,273.6 National defense 524.6 531.5 541.9 539.4 528.0 509.2 489.8 472.3 467.1 516.1 509.7 505.9 505.0 489.9 483.3 496.7 489.2 481.0 479.4 472.5 456.2 462.9 473.4 469.3 462.9 459.3 405.5 401.6 401.5 397.5 375.8 355.4 337.0 319.6 313.9 361.6 356.9 351.6 351.2 334^8 335.5 346.2 331.3 325.0 325.5 319.1 308.8 311.9 319.4 314.9 309.4 301.3 Nondefense 119.1 130.1 140.5 142.0 152.2 153.8 152.6 152.3 152.8 154.4 152.7 154.2 153.7 154.9 147.8 150.4 157.5 155.6 153.5 153.1 147.0 150.6 153.7 153.9 153.1 157.4 State and local 656.6 682.6 708.6 718.7 735.8 751.8 770.5 788.6 804.3 741.6 748.8 755.7 761.3 762.7 766.8 774.7 777.7 782.2 786.3 791.5 794.4 792.6 805.5 807.7 811.4 815.3 Final sales of domestic product Gross domestic purchases' Addendum: Gross national product 5,855.1 6,028.7 6,126.7 6,082.6 6,237.4 6,365.5 6,550.7 6,708.9 6,892.1 5,986.1 6,147.8 6,199.8 6,101.6 6,274.0 6,457.4 6,711.5 6,846.4 7,016.2 6,382.0 6,420.2 6,478.3 6,549.0 6,605.8 6,692.2 6,753.6 6,794.3 6,818.9 6,830.2 6,874.2 6,862.4 6,914.1 7,002.6 7,060.3 7,087.7 7,213.4 5,878.5 6,075.7 6,157.0 6,094.9 6,255.5 6,396.8 6,605.6 6,736.4 6,899.7 6,342.3 6,366.7 6,406.0 6,472.2 6,514.0 6,586.1 6,640.0 6,682.5 6,698.2 6,711.0 6,761.3 6,775.0 6,814.4 6,886.1 6,913.3 6,985.0 7,076.9 6,307.1 6,334.5 6,371.3 6,449.2 6,467.7 6,514.9 6,582.1 6,638.1 6,647.4 6,682.4 6,741.4 6,764.2 6,815.2 6,884.7 6,892.7 6,975.9 7,040.8 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT [Index numbers, 1992 = 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted) Personal consumption expenditures Period 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1993 I n m IV 1994- I .. H in IV 1995: I n in . IV 1996: I n in IV 1997: I' Gross domestic product 86.09 89.72 93.60 97.32 100.00 102.61 104.95 107.59 109.69 101.84 102.36 102.83 103.40 104.11 104.60 105.24 105.83 106.71 107.33 107.88 108.41 109.00 109.47 109.93 110.34 110.94 Total 84.32 88.44 92.91 96.82 100.00 102.64 105.09 107.58 109.82 101.82 102.45 102.79 103.49 104.08 104.65 105.54 106.06 106.74 107.45 107.84 108.27 108.85 109.64 110.06 110.73 111.22 Durable goods Nondurable goods 93.28 95.29 96.59 98.54 100.00 101.25 103.37 104.58 103.39 100.46 101.08 101.49 101.93 102.37 103.19 103.94 103.95 104.68 104.83 104.54 104.30 104.34 103.57 103.08 102.59 101.91 84.83 89.28 94.62 98.06 100.00 101.49 102.82 104.50 107.15 101.29 101.46 101.28 101.93 101.95 102.36 103.33 103.61 103.87 104.48 104.67 104.99 105.99 107.21 107.23 108.16 108.79 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Gross private domestic investment Services 82.16 86.55 91.22 95.78 100.00 103.56 106.70 109.92 112.73 102.39 103.28 103.88 104.67 105.61 106.22 107.10 107.85 108.76 109.65 110.31 110.93 111.42 112.34 113.17 113.98 114.72 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed 93.74 96.16 98.41 99.92 100.00 100.87 102.32 103.39 103.16 100.49 100.80 101.02 101.14 101.63 102.19 102.73 102.68 102.71 103.37 103.80 103.64 92.06 95.08 97.80 98.85 100.00 103.73 106.99 110.28 112.18 102.32 103.58 104.28 104.67 105.67 106.23 107.42 108.60 109.20 109.90 110.70 111.31 111.28 111.62 112.53 113.28 113.53 103.43 103.10 103.28 102.85 102.16 Exports and imports of goods and services Exports Imports Total 96.00 97.91 98.74 100.31 100.00 99.94 101.00 104.12 103.55 99.96 100.06 99.98 98.78 100.18 100.61 101.34 101.79 103.16 104.47 104.61 104.22 104.06 103.93 103.46 102.79 102.12 95.35 97.81 100.37 100.02 100.00 98.67 99.49 102.16 101.53 98.82 99.39 98.38 98.13 97.51 98.77 100.59 100.91 101.13 103.17 102.50 101.82 101.66 101.78 101.15 101.53 99.87 87.18 89.79 92.93 96.88 100.00 102.63 105.43 109.38 111.97 101.81 102.05 103.05 103.65 104.37 105.39 105.47 106.49 108.05 108.91 109.37 111.30 112.03 111.86 111.98 112.01 113.32 National defense Nondefense 87.30 89.79 92.93 96.47 100.00 102.07 104.47 108.11 110.57 101.12 101.63 102.72 102.85 103.55 104.14 104.65 105.54 106.94 108.06 108.34 109.17 110.25 110.75 110.76 110.52 111.70 86.75 89.70 92.84 97.94 100.00 103.98 107.67 112.29 115.15 103.46 103.06 103.87 105.53 106.29 108.28 107.38 108.73 110.62 110.92 111.79 116.02 116.00 114.42 114.80 115.39 116.90 State and local 87.52 90.52 94.91 97.86 100.00 102.13 103.62 106.74 109.83 101.65 102.17 102.25 102.42 102.93 103.21 103.84 104.49 105.62 106.49 107.11 107.72 109.15 109.15 110.11 110.89 111.53 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES: INDEXES AND PERCENT CHANGES I Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted! Index numbers, 1992=100 Real GDP (chain-type quantity index) ODP (current dollars) 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1993: I ... II .. HI IV . 1994: I ... H .. 73.99 76.93 82.32 85.25 87.88 90.47 93.93 97.08 98.27 97.36 100.00 102.27 105.83 107.97 110.61 101.31 101.79 102.38 103.59 104.23 105.49 106.41 107.18 107.30 107.50 108.51 108.58 109.12 110.37 110.95 111.99 113.58 51.92 5S.28 62.49 66.95 70.82 75.14 80.87 87.10 91.98 94.75 100.00 104.94 111.07 116.16 121.33 103.17 104.19 105.28 107.11 108.51 110.35 111.99 113.43 114.50 115.38 117.06 117.71 118.94 120.83 121.97 123.57 126.00 in iv. 1995: I ... n .. ra rv. 1996: I ... n .. m iv . 1997: I' .. ODP chain-type price index 70.18 73.16 75.92 78.53 80.58 83.06 86.10 89.72 93.64 97.32 100.00 102.62 104.96 107.57 109.88 101.83 102.39 102.83 103.42 104.15 104.63 105.25 105.80 106.68 107.31 107.86 108.42 109.03 109,62 110.17 110.69 111.44 1 Percent changes based on indexes to 3 decimal places. Quarterly percent changes are at annual rates. Percent change from preceding period' GDP implicit price deflator Real GDP (chain-type quantity index) ODP (current dollars) 70.17 73.16 75.92 78.53 80.58 83.06 86.09 •89.72 93.60 97.32 100.00 102.61 104.95 107.59 109.69 101.84 102.36 102.83 103.40 104.11 104.60 105.24 105.83 106.71 107.33 107.88 108.41 109.00 109.47 109.93 110.34 110.94 4.1 8.4 11.0 7.1 5.8 6.1 7.6 7.7 5.6 3.0 5.5 4.9 5.8 4.6 4.4 3.8 4.0 4.3 7.1 5.3 6.9 6.1 5.3 3.8 3.1 6.0 2.3 4.2 6.5 3.8 5.4 8.1 GDP chain-type price index -2.1 4.0 7.0 3.6 3.1 2.9 3.8 3.4 1.2 -.9 2.7 2.3 3.5 2.0 2.4 GDP implicit price deflator 6.3 4.3 3.8 3.4 2.6 3.1 3.7 4.2 4.4 3.9 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.1 3.8 2.2 1.8 2.3 2.9 1.9 2.4 2.1 3.3 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 2.8 I 1.9 2.3 4.8 2.5 4.9 3.5 2.9 .4 .7 3.8 .3 2.0 4.7 2.1 3.8 5.8 6.3 4.3 3.8 3.4 2.6 3.1 3.7 4.2 4.3 4.0 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.0 3.8 2.1 1.9 2.2 2.8 1.9 2.5 2.3 3.4 2.4 2.1 2.0 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.5 2.2 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS-OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS (Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates! Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars) Poriod 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1993: I II m .... iv 1994: I II III .... IV 1995: I H ni .... iv 1996: I n m .... iv 1997: If Current dollars Chained (1992) dollars 2,805.2 2,950.9 3,084.0 3,132.1 3,262.6 3,437.5 3,689.4 3,885.8 4,107.8 3,344.2 3,407.3 3,459.7 3,538.7 3,601.7 3,663.0 3,709.5 3,783.2 3,803.3 3,841.9 3,924.8 3,973.2 4,011.6 4,081.6 4,143.1 4,194.8 4,295.3 3,130.1 3,179.8 3,210.2 3,168.8 3,262.6 3,379.7 3,567.4 3,691.2 3,858.7 3,302.6 3,356.3 3,398.9 3,460.9 3,503.7 3,552.9 3,577.5 3,635.3 3,632.9 3,654.7 3,718.7 3,758.6 3,779.2 3,831.4 3,888.4 3,935.8 4,019.6 'Output is measured by (JDP of nonfinancial corporate business in chained (1992) dollars. This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. a Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of real output (dollars)' Total cost and profit2 0.896 .928 .961 .988 1.000 1.017 1.034 1.053 1.065 1.013 1.015 1.018 1.022 1.028 1.031 1.037 1.041 1.047 1.051 1.055 1.057 1.062 1.065 1.066 1.066 1.069 Consumption of fixed capital 0.089 .094 .096 .101 .101 .101 .102 .102 .102 .102 .101 .102 .100 .108 .100 .100 .100 .101 .103 .102 .103 .103 .103 .102 .102 .101 Indirect business tax, etc.3 0.084 .088 .092 .100 .103 .105 .106 .109 .106 .105 .105 .105 .107 .106 .106 .107 .107 .108 .110 .108 .108 .107 .105 .105 .105 .106 Compensation of employees 0.590 .613 .640 .660 .673 .679 .683 .698 .705 .682 .679 .679 .675 .680 .681 .684 .686 .696 .699 .697 .699 .702 .706 .706 .708 .709 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Profits tax liability 0.094 .087 .086 .085 .091 .103 .116 .117 .125 .093 .100 .103 .113 .107 .117 .118 .121 .113 .112 .121 .120 .123 .126 .126 .123 .126 0.033 .031 .030 .027 .028 .031 .036 .038 .038 .028 .031 .029 .034 .035 .036 .037 .039 .039 .038 .038 .037 .039 .039 .038 .038 .038 Profits after tax4 0.062 .056 .056 .058 .063 .072 .080 .079 .086 .065 .069 .074 .079 .072 .082 .082 .083 .074 .074 .083 .082 .084 .087 .088 .085 .089 .Vet interest 0.039 .046 .046 .042 .032 ,029 .027 .027 .027 .031 .030 .029 .028 .027 .027 .028 .027 .028 .028 .027 .027 .026 .026 .027 .027 .027 •s Indirect business tux and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. With inventory X'aluation and capita! consumption ai^justments. Sources: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4 NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] National income Period 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1993: m . IV 1994- I n m IV 1995- I II m rv 1996- I ii m IV 1997- I' 1 ... . 4,652.1 4,761.6 4,990.4 5,238.5 5,535.2 5,828.9 6,164.2 5,258.0 5,351.9 5,363.6 5,524.6 5,587.5 5,665.1 5,728.3 5,771.8 5,876.0 5,939.7 6,027.5 6,132.2 6,216.6 6,280.6 6,435.0 Compensation of employees' Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Nonfarm Farm 35.4 29.3 37.1 31.1 34.3 27.9 44.7 25.2 33.6 40.1 34.4 31.2 31.6 27.7 26.6 27.1 30.1 36.6 44.1 50.1 47.9 45.6 3,352.8 3,457.9 3,644.9 3,809.5 4,009.8 4,222.7 4,448.5 3,834.9 3,871.1 3,932.6 3,988.0 4,027.5 4,091.0 4,150.5 4,191.6 4,247.7 4,301.1 4,344.3 4,420.9 4,482.9 4,546.0 4,638.1 338.6 347.2 386.7 404.8 430.0 458.2 482.6 404.8 416.0 409.3 430.8 436.1 444.0 451.7 455.6 460.7 464.8 471.5 480.5 485.5 493.1 502.9 Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment 61.0 67.9 79.4 102.2 112.1 111.7 115.0 103.8 103.3 104.1 115.9 115.3 113.0 111.6 111.9 109.9 113.5 114.5 112.4 115.2 117.9 116.8 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total Total 397.1 411.3 428.0 492.1 554.1 604.8 670.2 498.0 539.9 487.3 560.1 577.3 591.8 580.0 580.8 630.0 628.3 661.2 672. 1 677.3 670.1 716.8 Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment 371.7 374.2 406.4 464.3 531.2 598.9 639.9 458.0 504.5 475.5 526.0 550.8 572.4 594.5 589.6 607.2 604.2 642.2 644.6 635.6 637.1 672.3 -13.5 4.0 -7.5 -6.6 -13.3 -28.1 -8.9 7.9 -40 -3.9 -98 -16.5 -22.8 -51.9 -42.3 -9.3 -8.8 -17.4 -11.0 2.0 -9.2 .0 358.2 378.2 398.9 457.7 517.9 570.8 631.0 465.9 500.5 471.6 516.2 534.3 549.6 542.6 547.3 597.9 595.3 624.8 633.5 637.6 627.9 672.3 Capital consumption adjustment 38.9 33.1 29.1 34.4 36.2 34.0 39.2 32.1 39.4 15.7 43.9 43.0 42.2 37.4 33.5 32.1 32.9 36.4 38.6 39.7 42.2 44.6 Net interest 467.3 448.0 414.3 398.9 394.9 403.6 403.3 391.4 388.0 390.2 395.5 400.1 393.8 406.9 405.2 400.7 401.9 399.5 402.3 405.6 405.7 414.9 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Includes employer contributions for social insurance. {See also p. 5.) REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of chained (1992) dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates! Durable goods Period 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1993: m IV 1994- I n in rv 1995- I n m IV 1996: I n in rv 1997: I' 1 Total personal consumption expenditures 4,132.2 4,105.8 4,219.8 4,339.5 4,473.2 4,577.8 4,690.7 4,359.5 4,390.0 4,420.5 4,458.7 4,489.4 4,524.0 4,534.8 4,569.9 4,597.3 4,609.4 4,649.1 4,687.6 4,693.5 4,732.5 4.798.7 Total durable goods Motor vehicles and parts 493.3 462.0 488.5 524.1 562.0 579.8 611.4 528.9 541.9 549.6 555.4 563.1 579.8 566.5 576.2 589.1 587.5 599.2 615.6 611.6 619.1 647.1 224.3 193.2 206.9 218.6 228.2 221.1 222.4 219.1 225.3 230.3 226.6 226.5 229.4 216.3 220.9 226.4 220.6 224.2 225.9 220.0 219.4 227.7 Furniture and household equipment 173.5 177.0 189.4 208.4 230.1 251.1 275.8 211.0 216.8 219.0 226.1 232.6 242.6 243.1 247.1 254.1 259.9 264.1 276.0 279.0 284.2 298.3 Nondurable goods Other Total nondurable goods Food 96.6 91.8 92.3 97.2 104.2 109.8 117.1 98.9 99.9 100.3 103.0 104.7 108.8 108.9 109.9 110.5 109.9 113.9 117.4 116.9 120.3 126.3 1,316.1 1,302.9 1,321.8 1,348.8 1,390.5 1,421.9 1,442.0 1,354.0 1,359.9 1,372.9 1,383.9 1,397.0 1,408.1 1,416.6 1,422.9 1,424.7 1,423.2 1,436.1 1,440.9 1,442.2 1,448.6 1.466.0 662.9 659.6 660.0 674.3 689.1 702.1 704.6 675.7 677.9 682.3 688.6 690.5 694.9 700.5 701.3 703.6 703.0 709.2 704.9 701.6 702.8 708.6 Includes other items, not shown separately. NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. Clothing Gasoline and and oil shoes 217.9 215.9 225.5 233.3 247.2 257.2 268.2 235.0 238.6 241.1 243.3 249.0 255.5 254.6 257.9 258.8 257.3 262.5 268.9 271.0 270.3 278.0 107.3 103.4 106.6 109.1 110.4 113.3 113.8 110.9 109.3 108.8 109.5 111.6 111.6 113.4 113.6 112.5 113.7 112.6 114.3 113.4 114.9 115.1 Services Fuel oil and eoal 11.2 10.8 10.9 10.7 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.7 10.6 11.4 10.0 10.2 9.6 9.9 10.6 10.0 10.7 10.7 10.1 10.1 10.0 9.0 Other Total services * Housing 316.7 313.2 318.8 321.5 333.5 339.3 345.9 321.8 323.4 329.3 332.3 335.8 336.7 338.4 339.9 340.0 338.8 341.6 343.5 347.0 351.4 356.4 2,321.3 2,341.0 2,409.4 2,466.7 2,521.4 2,577.0 2,638.3 2,476.7 2,488.5 2,498.5 2,519.9 2,530.0 2,537.3 2,552.5 2,571.6 2,584.6 2,599.3 2,614.7 2,632.3 2,640.6 2,665.6 2.687.2 627.2 635.2 646.8 655.0 668.2 681.7 692.9 655.9 658.5 662.1 666.1 670.7 674.1 677.4 680.0 683.2 686.3 689.0 691.6 693.9 697.2 700.6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Medical eare 602.8 621.6 646.6 658.8 668.8 684.1 698.3 659.7 661.4 663.2 667.6 670.4 674.2 677.8 681.3 686.0 691.2 691.1 696.1 699.7 706.5 712.3 Retail sales of new passenger cars and light trucks (millions of units) 13.9 12.3 12.8 13.9 15.0 14.7 15.0 13.8 14.6 15.0 14.8 14.9 15.2 14.9 14.4 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.0 15.1 14.8 15.4 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $6.7 billion (annual rate) in April, following an increase of $39.0 billion in March. Wages and salaries fell $2.9 billion In April, compared to an increase of $27.7 billion in March. In April, declines in private-sector average weekly hours and hourly earnings more than offset an increase in employment. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE] BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 7,000 7,000 6,000 6,000 5,000 5,000 TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME 4,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 \ WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 2,000 2,000 \ OTHER INCOME 1,400 1,400 800 800 TRANSFER PAYMENTS 400 I I l l l III 1989 linn 1990 1991 1992 mill 400 1994 1993 1995 1996 1997 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 ... 1996 1996- Apr May July .. Sept Oct Nov Dec ... 1997: Jan r .. Feb' Maf Apr*7 . , Total personal income 4,184.6 4,501.0 4,804.2 4,981.6 5,277.2 5,495.6 5,762.0 6,112.4 6,449.5 6,368.6 6,402.6 6,457.6 6,460.4 6,499.9 6,536.4 6,541.8 6,583.5 6,629.4 6,653.3 6,706.9 6,745.9 6,752.6 Wage and salary disbursements J 2,453.6 2,598.1 2,757.5 2,827.6 2,986.4 3,090.7 3,241.8 3,430.6 3,630.1 3,579.1 3,597.2 3,643.1 3,630.8 3,660.9 3,687.2 3,682.3 3,713.5 3,752.5 3,750.4 3,800.5 3,828.2 3,825.3 Proprietors' income3 Other labor income 1 2 27.5 36.3 35.4 29.3 37.1 31.1 34.3 27.9 44.7 41.5 44.5 46.3 48.3 50.6 51.5 49.5 47.9 46.3 45.9 45.6 45.3 45.4 251.7 273.1 300.6 322.7 351.3 380.9 402.2 424.0 436.2 432.4 434.0 435.6 437.1 438.6 440.1 441.5 442.9 444.3 445.2 446.1 447.0 447.9 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. 2 Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds. Farm 3 Nonfarm 307.8 321.1 338.6 347.2 386.7 404.8 430.0 458.2 482.6 478.3 481.0 482.1 483.7 484.6 488.1 490.7 493.1 495.4 499.5 503.7 505.3 506.3 Rental income of persons 4 55.1 51.7 61.0 67.9 79.4 102.2 112.1 111.7 115.0 111.9 112.7 112.5 114.3 114.9 116.4 117.7 118.0 118.1 117.8 116.8 115.9 116.2 Personal dividend income 109.9 130.9 142.9 153.6 159.4 186.8 199.6 214.8 230.6 228.7 229.4 229.9 230.8 231.5 232.3 233.3 234.7 236.5 238.2 239.9 241.7 243.6 Personal interest income 595.5 674.5 704.4 699.2 667.2 648.1 663.7 717.1 738.2 728.1 733.6 737.5 740.6 743.0 745.1 747.7 750.5 753.4 756.0 758.4 760.5 762.6 Transfer payments5 577.6 626.0 687.8 769.9 858.2 910.7 956.3 1,022.6 1,079.7 1,072.5 1,075.4 1,078.9 1,082.5 1,085.6 1,087.3 1,090.2 1,096.1 1,098.8 1,118.3 1,117.4 1,125.2 1,128.8 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. With capital consumption adjustment. Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4 5 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance 194.2 210.8 223.9 235.8 248.4 259.6 278.1 294.5 307.5 303.9 305.2 308.4 307.7 309.8 311.7 311.0 313.2 315.9 317.9 321.4 323.4 323.3 DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME According to revised estimates, per capita disposable personal income in chained (1992) dollars rose at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the first quarter of 1997. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE) BIWONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE) 6,000 5,500 6,000 5,500 2,500 2,500 2,000 I I DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 22,000 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 20,000 CHAINED (1 992) DOLLARS 18,000 1 " .- — — 16,000 . -"\ 14,000 1 1' I ^— ' 12,000 -—' --- ~p^*~^ c~ -_~_^Jj • 18,000 Z—=- 16,000 —'" \ 14,000 C URRENT XDLLARS 12,000 S^ 10,000 __, • 10,000 ^ \ I ! 1 8,000 1982 1983 1 1 1 1984 ! 1 1985 t 1 ! 1986 I 1 ! 1987 i i i 1988 i i i 1 1989 1990 1 1 1 ! ! 1991 i l I ! 1992 1993 j 1 i I > 1994 •SEASONAU y ADJUSTED ANNUAL RAHES SOURCE: DE ARTMENIOf COMMERCE Period Personal income Less: Personal tax and nontax payments 4,501.0 4,804.2 4,981.6 5,277.2 5,495.6 5,762.0 6,112.4 6,449.5 594.9 624.8 624.8 650.5 689.9 731.4 794.3 863.8 1 1 ! 1995 i 1 8,000 1 1996 1997 COUNCIL OFECONOM1C ADVISERS Equals: Disposable personal income Less: Personal outlays * Equals: Personal saving1 Disposable personal income in billions of chained (1992) dollars Per capita disposable personal income Current dollars 3,906.1 4,179.4 4,356.8 4,626.7 4,805.7 5,030.6 5,318.1 5,585.7 Chained (1992) dollars Per capita personal consumption expenditures Current dollars Chained (1992) dollars Dollars Billions of dollars 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 2,000 DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 22,000 20,000 3,706.7 3,958.1 4,097.4 4,341.0 4,575.8 4,832.3 5,071.5 5,314.0 4,416.8 15,790 17,854 4,498.2 16,721 17,996 4,500.0 17,242 17,809 4,626.7 18,113 18,113 4,682.0 18,615 18,136 4,786.7 19,298 18,362 4,943.3 20,214 18,789 5,086.0 21,040 19,158 199.4 221.3 259.5 285.6 229.9 198.3 246.6 271.6 Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population, including Armed Forces overseas (thousands) 2 Percent 14,531 15,360 15,732 16,520 17,253 18,033 18,719 19,404 16,430 16,532 16,249 16,520 16,809 17,159 17,400 17,669 1.0 .8 -1.0 1.7 .1 1.2 2.3 2.0 5.1 5.3 6.0 6.2 4.8 3.9 4.6 4.9 249,956 252,680 255,432 258,159 260,681 263,090 265,482 16,984 17,164 17,335 17,528 17,714 17,924 18,154 18,338 18,463 18,689 18,823 18,901 19,128 19,383 19,433 19,670 19,997 16,681 16,754 16,864 16,937 17,019 17,127 17,200 17,290 17,296 17,393 17,454 17,458 17,573 17,679 17,657 17,764 17,979 -7.8 3.8 .2 3.6 -4.8 6.5 1.5 2.8 2.9 -.6 3.3 3.3 1.2 .5 3.8 1.7 3.5 4.5 5.1 4.5 5.0 3.3 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.8 4.1 4.5 5.1 4.8 4.3 5.3 5.1 4.8 257,155 257,787 258,501 259,192 259,738 260,327 261,004 261,653 262,181 262,748 263,399 264,032 264,563 265,155 265,806 266,405 266,901 247,387 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1993- I ... II Ill IV . 1994- I .... II Ill IV 1995- I II Ill rv 1996- I II III IV 1997- I- 5,365.5 5,475.7 5,517.1 5,624.1 5,593.6 5,744.6 5,809.8 5,900.1 6,002.9 6,072.2 6,144.1 6,230.2 6,304.5 6,409.6 6,498.9 6,584.9 6,702.1 662.4 686.9 696.4 713.8 705.5 740.8 731.3 748.1 770.0 801.5 798.4 807.2 824.9 870.6 872.5 887.2 919.1 4,703.1 4,788.9 4,820.7 4,910.3 4,888.1 5,003.8 5,078.6 5,151.9 5,232.9 5,270.7 5,345.7 5,423.1 5,479.6 5,539.0 5,626.4 5,697.7 5,783.0 4,489.2 4,545.5 4,602.2 4,666.3 4,728.0 4,796.1 4,870.8 4,934.2 4,980.3 5,054.4 5,106.6 5,144.7 5,218.1 5,300.7 5,329.8 5,407.5 5,506.3 213.9 243.4 218.5 244.0 160.1 207.7 207.8 217.8 252.6 216.3 239.1 278.4 261.5 238.3 296.6 290.2 276.7 4,619.2 4,674.2 4,690.0 4,744.8 4,696.5 4,781.3 4,811.8 4,857.4 4,902.3 4,905.1 4,956.9 5,009.0 5,034.0 5,052.0 5,112.3 5,145.7 5,199.4 1 Includes persona! consumption expenditures, interest paid by persons, and personal transfer payments to rest of the world (net). 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. 18,289 18,577 18,649 18,944 18,819 19,221 19,458 19,690 19,959 20,060 20,295 20,539 20,712 20,890 21,167 21,387 21,667 17,963 18,132 18,143 18,306 18,082 18,367 18,436 18,564 18,698 18,668 18,819 18,971 19,028 19,053 19,233 19,315 19,481 Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME in the third quarter of 1996, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income feli $11.0 billion (annual rate) and net farm income fell $11.2 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 280 240 280 /- V_^ s _. r^__/~i-~~"' r "\ ^.r"^-—-f^-s^S f~^ ~" •~—~~ 200 ' 160 1 120 80 60 \ / 40 l\ /" \ \ 1 \f 1 f ^ I 1 \ ' /v x \/ 1 ^ '\i i \* * t / \j \l \ '-/ \/' /- "--„ *• v / '•~. / \ x"*, 40 N \' v'V ' NETFAFtM INCO^AE 20 I ' A 1 1 1 1 U 1 V | 10 >l 4 1 1 1982 ! i i i 1983 1 1 1 1984 1 1 1 ! 1985 ! 1 1987 1986 i i i ! 1 1 1989 1988 i i i 1990 i i i 1991 i i i 1992 i I t 1993 1 1 1 1994 i i i ! 1995 1996 ! i COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from fanning Gross farm income Period Cash marketing receipts Total' Total 1987 1988 . 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 . 1994 1995 1994- I II Ill IV . 1995: I II Ill IV 1996: I II ... HI? 168.4 177.9 191.9 198.2 191.9 200.6 204.2 215,8 210.4 221.2 208.6 214.1 219.4 208.3 206.4 218.5 208.4 233.6 237.4 226.4 141.8 151.2 160.8 169.5 167.9 171.3 177.6 180.8 185.8 179.9 170.8 186.9 185.5 180.6 181.0 199.8 181.5 197.7 204.5 202.0 1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, arsd nonrnoney income furnished by farms. 2 Pliysieai changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the y«ar. Livestock and products 76.0 79.6 83.9 89.2 85.8 85.6 90.2 88.1 86.8 92.1 82.9 97.7 79.9 83.2 81.6 96.1 86.5 85.2 89.6 92.8 Crops 65.8 71.6 76.9 80.3 82.1 85.7 87.5 92.6 98.9 87.9 88.0 89.2 105.5 97.4 99.4 103.7 95.1 312.5 114.9 109.2 Production expenses Value of inventory changes2 23 -4.1 3.8 3.3 f) 42 -4.5 8.2 -3.4 10.2 9.6 7.3 5.8 -4.1 -3.9 -3.0 24 4.7 4.4 3.4 131.0 139.9 146.7 153.4 153.3 152.5 160.5 167.4 175.6 164.5 166.8 168.8 169.6 172.4 175.4 177.5 177.0 179.0 184.2 184.4 Net farm income 37.4 38.0 45.3 44.8 38.5 48.0 43.6 48.4 34.8 56.7 41.8 45.3 49.8 35.9 30.9 41.0 31.4 54.7 53.2 42.0 NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Credit Corporation loans and operator households. Quarterly data plotted for 1989 through 1993 in chart do riot reflect previous revisions to annua) data in tableSources: Department of Agriculture. CORPORATE PROFITS In the first quarter of 1997, according to preliminary estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $35.2 billion (annual rate) and profits after tax rose $18.3 billion. Financial profits had been reduced $18.0 billion in the fourth quarter of 1996 to reflect a special assessment on thrift institutions to recapitalize the Savings Association Insurance Fund. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS /oo /OO SEASONAU.Y ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES . 650 650 , 600 r~s / 550 450 PROFITS BEFORE TAX f\ 350 300 250 V._^-\ /^ PROF TS AFTER TAX J ^ , 400 .--•' \~^ 200 v_J 150 s — '" 100 • x ""> 1 ,S''~ -""" ,--' /, — ' l l l 1982 l l l 1983 1 1 1 1 1 l 1984 • 1985 ^S /UNOISTRIBUTE[ i i i i i i 1986 1987 1988 \ / •v -- — -' __. 300 250 ,. -.'—• ._/' A \ ~- / ' AXIIABIL TY \ — '"" ^' \' /-' ~_—. ,-x / 350 / s — ~~ ™~ — \ ,~" 450 _ / I 500 - J 1r ^ \ A /-\~^ \/ 400 0 550 - ./ 500 50 600 1 f ..• 200 •''' /•-^ • 150 ~ t 100 V 50 PROFITS l l i 1989 ! 1 1 1990 i i i 1 1 1 1 1991 1992 1993 1 1 l l l i i i l i i 1 1994 1995 1996 1997 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ! 0 1 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment ' Profits after tax Domestic industries Period Nonfinancial Total2 Total 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1993: I n III IV 1994- I II ni IV 1995: I II Ill IV 1996: I II in IV 1997: I" ! 2 :t 325.0 330.6 358.2 378.2 398.9 457.7 517.9 570.8 631.0 422.4 442.0 465.9 500.5 471.6 516.2 534.3 549.6 542.6 547.3 597.9 595.3 624.8 633.5 637.6 627.9 672.3 274.3 272.6 292.5 309.5 334.0 388.1 453.7 494.1 548.9 347.0 375.7 393.1 436.8 407.0 452.4 469.9 485.5 467.5 468.2 527.1 513.7 541.6 555.1 561.0 538.0 587.5 Financial 43.0 53.1 68.6 87.4 83.7 91.0 94.4 119.1 131.9 85.7 88.1 88.8 101.3 64.9 97.8 108.4 106.4 114,3 112.6 130.4 119.3 134.9 136.6 135.0 121.3 150.6 Total" 231.2 219.6 223.8 222.1 250.3 297.2 359.3 375.0 417.0 261.2 287.6 304.3 335.4 342.1 354.6 361.5 379.0 353.2 355.6 396.7 394.4 406.7 418.5 426.1 416.7 437.0 Manufacturing 115.1 109.3 112.3 92.7 96.3 109.7 142.7 145.7 166.5 90.4 108.4 106.0 134.0 145.3 134.2 142.8 148.4 134.7 137.8 153.2 157.3 161.3 164.7 170.6 169.4 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. Includes industries not shown separately. Profits before tax Wholesale 19.3 20.4 17.2 20.6 23.0 25.5 34.5 29.6 36.6 17.9 28.6 27.0 28.7 28.8 39.5 34.3 35.4 29.7 26.4 31.2 31.2 37.5 32.8 34.5 41.5 Tax liability Total Dividends Undistributed profits Inventory valuation adjustment 116.8 138.9 151.9 163.1 169.5 197.3 211.0 227.4 244.2 190.2 195.8 200.2 202.9 204.4 208.8 212.5 218.5 221.7 224.6 228.5 234.7 239.9 243.1 245.2 248.7 254.2 100.5 67.9 79.4 77.7 93.9 103.2 124.8 152.8 162.6 95.3 99.2 98.4 119.9 99.7 124.5 134.9 149.3 155.5 150.8 154.3 150.8 168.9 165.1 156.9 159.5 172.4 -29.3 -17.5 -13.5 4.0 -7.5 -6.6 -13.3 -28.1 -8.9 -14.6 -15.6 7.9 -4.0 -3.9 -9.8 -16.5 -22.8 -51.9 -42.3 -9.3 -8.8 -17.4 -11.0 2.0 -9.2 '.0 Retail 19.6 20.7 20.6 26.1 32.2 39.2 42.2 38.7 41.8 36.3 38.1 42.4 39.8 38.3 43.2 43.7 43.6 36.0 36.6 42.5 39.6 41.7 44.3 44.5 36.7 354.3 348.1 371.7 374.2 406.4 464.3 531.2 598.9 639.9 437.0 457.6 458.0 504.5 475.5 526.0 550.8 572.4 594.5 589.6 607.2 604.2 642.2 644.6 635.6 637.1 672.3 137.0 141.3 140.5 133.4 143.0 163.8 195.3 218.7 233.0 151.5 162.6 159.3 181.7 171.4 192.8 203.4 213.5 217.3 214.2 224.5 218.7 233.4 236.4 233.4 228.9 245.7 217.3 206.8 231.2 240.8 263.4 300.5 335.9 380.2 406.8 285.6 295.0 298.6 322,8 304.1 333.3 347.4 358.8 377.2 375.3 382.8 385.5 408.8 408.1 402.2 408.2 426.5 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. REAL GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT In the first quarter of 1997, according to revised estimates, nonresidentiai fixed investment in chained (1992) dollars rose $21.8 billion (annual rate) and residential investment rose $4.0 billion. There was an increase of $51.4 billion in inventories following an increase of $17.1 billion in the fourth quarter. BILLIONS OF CHAINED (1992) DOLLARS BILLIONS OF CHAINED |! 992] DOLLARS 1,200 1,200 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES / 1,100 1,100 S r"v— 1,000 1,000 /" 900 900 | S^ 800 S / ~\ "X. "-*•** s ^ y GROSS PRIVATE [JOMESTK: 1 SVESTME NT s N, ! \ \ J 500 —/ r—T*^ 1 L / 700 600 \ ~~^~- ,,"•" „ 800 ^.s r~^ ^ s \* s ^ *. _^ ** — 700 s 600 •*" 500 Nl.3NRESIDE NTIAL FIX ED INVES TMENT 400 400 RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT \ i 300 -.-.._ ...^ 200 ^.^ ,— •*" ._.-•- f 300 .*-•—•• 200 s' _^.S CHANCX !N BUSINESS /ENTORIE 100 N s 0 * -100 I \ 1 1982 I 1 •-.,• •\ X ,. / _ ^ f \ \ 1 1 1983 1984 ! 1 -U 100 • N — s "* 0 v \ 11 1 1 i i i I 1985 1986 1987 1988 ! /~-~ »' \ ! 1 > I I 1989 ! 1 1 1990 1 ! ! 1991 i i t 1 1992 1993 ! ! SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1 1 1994 1 I 1 1995 I 1 1 ! 1996 ! 1 1 -100 1997 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Fixed investment Gross private domestic investment Period 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 . 1994 1995 . 1996 1993- I II Ill . . IV 1994- I ... II III TV 1995: I II in IV 1996- I II in IV 1997: , I' . . 828.2 863.5 815.0 738.1 790.4 857.0 979.3 1,009.4 1,056.6 834.6 843.0 857.4 893.2 933.5 984.7 994.2 1,004.9 1,022.8 996.1 1,014.6 1,004.3 1,011.4 1,038.1 1,093.1 1,083.9 1.144.0 Total Total 818.3 832.0 805.8 741.3 783.4 836.4 921.1 975.9 1,042.1 815.4 821.1 835.4 873.5 892.4 911.4 930.8 949.7 969.5 965.7 980.0 988.5 1,013.3 1,031.1 1,057.5 1,066.6 1.092.2 NOTE.—S«e p. 10 for further detail on fixed investment by tyjw. Bemus« of the formula used for calculating ruai GJ")P, the chained (1992) dollar estimates for the detailed comjiHsients do not, add to the ehained-doliar value of GDP or to any intermedi- Change in business inventories Nonresidentiai 566.0 588.8 585.2 547.7 557.9 593.6 652.1 714.3 766.8 577.5 586.4 593.1 617.6 628.5 639.5 660.5 679.7 704.4 710.5 719.0 723.3 743.5 750.5 781.4 792.0 813.8 Producers' durable equipment Residential Structures 196.8 201.2 203.3 181.6 169.2 166.3 168.8 181.1 190.0 167.0 164.8 165.1 168.2 163.0 169.0 169.1 174.3 178.5 180.0 182.8 183.2 186.6 184.9 188.6 199.8 202.9 369.2 387.6 381.9 366.2 388.7 427.6 484.1 534.5 578.6 410.5 421.7 428.2 449.8 466.4 471.1 492.5 506.5 527.2 531.7 537.4 541.4 558.3 567.5 595.0 593.7 612.6 252.5 243.2 220.6 193.4 225.6 242.7 268.9 262.8 276.7 237.9 234.8 242.2 255.8 263.6 271.6 270.3 270.3 265.9 256.5 262.2 266.3 271.1 281.5 277.8 276.6 280.6 ate aggregates. Source: Department of O0mm«rfie, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Total 11.7 33.3 10.4 -3.0 7.0 19.0 58.9 32.7 13.6 18.5 20.7 19.4 17.5 40.8 74.7 64.6 55.6 53.7 29.9 33.5 13.7 -3.5 6.7 34.1 17.1 51.4 Nonfarm 24.7 33.5 7.8 -1.2 2.0 26.4 46.8 37.2 17.1 26.0 26.7 30.9 22.1 29.7 54.0 50.5 53.0 57.4 33.7 38.5 19.0 2.9 11.7 34.6 19.3 52.0 REAL PRIVATE FIXED INVESTMENT BY TYPE [Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nonresidential Period 566.0 588.8 585.2 547.7 557.9 593.6 652.1 714.3 766.8 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1993: I n m rv 577.5 586.4 593.1 617.6 628.5 639.5 660.5 679.7 704.4 710.5 719.0 723.3 743.5 750.5 781.4 792.0 I' 813.8 n m IV 1994: I n m IV 1995: I n m IV 1996: I 1997: Total nonresidential Total' 196.8 201.2 203.3 181.6 169.2 166.3 168.8 181.1 190.0 167.0 164.8 165.1 168.2 163.0 169.0 169.1 174.3 178.5 180.0 182.8 183.2 186.6 184.9 188.6 199.8 202.9 Residential Producers' durable equipment Structures Structures Information processing and related equipment Nonresidential buildings, including farm Utilities Mining exploration, shafts, and wells 30.0 30.S 28.1 32.0 34.5 31.1 31.7 35.1 36.7 32.4 31.0 30.7 30.5 30.7 31.2 32.1 32.7 33.7 34.8 35.8 36.0 36.4 36.8 36.4 37.4 36.4 145.3 150.2 152.0 126.9 113.2 112.8 117.7 127.9 134.2 111.4 110.6 112.7 116.3 112.4 117.8 117.4 123.3 125.4 126.8 129.2 130.3 131.4 129.7 133.0 142.8 146.1 Total Computers and peripheral equipment 2 Other Industrial equipment 106.6 116.2 116.2 117.8 134.2 147.1 170.4 201.1 241.9 139.5 142.2 150.7 156.0 161.2 166.6 171.6 182.4 189.1 199.7 201.4 214.4 225.5 234.1 250.5 257.4 269.8 24.0 29.4 29.4 32.4 43.9 56.2 69.3 91.5 132.8 51.1 52.9 58.3 62.5 64.5 67.1 69.3 76.3 80.2 88.2 91.9 105.6 117.2 126.3 138.9 148.9 159.9 85.7 88.1 88.2 85.9 90.2 91.5 102.6 114.2 122.0 88.6 89.6 93.1 94.6 97.8 100.8 103.6 108.3 111.5 115.1 114.0 116.2 118.1 119.7 125.5 124.9 128.3 95.3 101.5 95.0 88.3 89.3 96.3 105.9 116.2 118.4 93.7 94.4 96.3 100.7 102.8 104.3 107.0 109.4 114.2 118.4 116.6 115.4 117.8 120.6 118.0 117.1 118.1 Total1 15.8 13.9 16.1 15.7 13.3 14.8 12.6 11.2 13.0 15.2 15.2 14.6 14.2 13.4 13.3 12.2 11.5 12.5 10.7 11.0 10.5 12.8 12.9 13.5 12.9 13.5 369.2 387.6 381.9 366.2 388.7 427.6 484.1 534.5 578.6 410.5 421.7 428.2 449.8 466.4 471.1 492.5 506.5 527.2 531.7 537.4 541.4 558.3 567.5 595.0 593.7 612.6 1 Includes other items, not shown separately. 2 Includes new computers and peripheral equipment only. 3 Includes producers' durable equipment, not shown separately. portation and related equipment 87.1 78.9 81.2 81.7 86.2 97.5 111.7 118.1 120.0 93.0 99.5 95.0 102.7 109.0 105.3 115.8 116.6 121.9 114.9 120.3 115.4 117.5 114.9 126.5 121.1 123.4 Total residential a Total 252.5 243.2 220.6 193.4 225.6 242.7 268.9 262.8 276.7 246.3 237.0 214.5 187.6 219.5 236.3 262.1 255.8 269.6 237.9 234.8 242.2 255.8 263.6 271.6 270.3 270.3 265.9 256.5 262.2 266.3 271.1 281.5 277.8 276.6 231.7 228.5 235.7 249.2 257.0 264.8 263.5 263.2 258.9 249.6 255.3 259.3 264.1 274.3 270.6 269.4 273.2 280.6 Single family 126.1 121.9 110.4 96.4 116.5 127.1 140.5 127.7 135.4 124.9 122.5 126.3 134.4 140.3 143.5 140.8 137.4 133.0 123.0 125.8 129.1 132.5 137.6 136.7 134.7 135.9 Multifamily Other 23.4 23.3 19.7 15.4 13.1 10.4 13.5 17.6 19.3 10.3 10.0 10.7 10.6 11.2 12.8 14.5 15.6 16.8 17.4 17.8 18.5 19.2 21.0 17.9 19.1 21.2 968 91.8 84.4 75.7 89.9 98.8 108.1 110.9 115.5 96.5 96.0 98.7 104.1 105.4 108.4 108.2 110.4 109.3 109.8 112.2 112.4 113.0 116.3 116.6 116.2 116.8 NOTK.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. BUSINESS INVESTMENT AND PLANS [Billions of dollars] By industry Period 1993 ! Total expenditures Total 19942 489.7 549.9 488.2 547.8 19953 594.5 19964 603.4 591.7 600.7 Mining and construction 31.2 36.1 36.0 33.6 Manufacturing Total 134.1 153.3 172.3 184.8 Durable goods Nondurable goods 66.4 78.9 91.4 100.2 67.7 74.4 80.9 84.6 Estimates collected from the 1993 Annual Capital Expenditures Survey. 2 Revised estimates collected from the 1994 Annual Capita* Expenditures Survey. Finai data are scheduled for release in summer 1996. 3 Revised estimates collected from the March 1996 Investment Plans Survey. P^nal data will be available upon release of the 1995 Annual Capital Expenditures Survey. 4 Estimates of planned capital expenditures from the March 1996 Investment Plans Survey. 10 Transportation Communications 30.6 33.3 37.0 35.2 37.1 41.5 46.0 46.3 Utilities 41.3 42.2 42.8 40.6 Wholesale and retail trade Finance, insurance, and real estate 60.3 68.9 75.1 71.9 40.2 46.8 57.3 57.7 Services 111.8 123.5 123.7 129.4 Serving multiple industries Not distributed by industry 1.7 2.2 1.5 1.3 1.4 2.2 2.8 2.7 NOTE.—Data for 1994-1996 from Business Investment and Plans released March 28, 1996. Data for 1993 from Annual Capital Expenditures: 1993. The Business Investment and Plans release has been discontinued effective with release of the March 1996 survey estimates. Estimates of business iavestment and plans will be available annually with release of the Annual Capital Expenditures Survey. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE in April, employment rose by 209,000 and unemployment fell by 430,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 4 MILUONS OF PERSONS ' _ 1997 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA) Civilian employment Period Civilian noninstitutional population NSA Civilian labor force Nonagricultural Total Agricultural Total Percent a Unemployment Part time for economic reasons! Total 15 weeks and over Not in labor force Labor force participation rate Employment/ population ratio ployment rate 1987 1988 1989 19903 1991 1992 1993 4 1994 1995 1996 182,753 184,613 186,393 189,164 190,925 192,805 194,838 196,814 198,584 200,591 119,865 121,669 123,869 125,840 126,346 128,105 129,200 131,056 132,304 133,943 112,440 114,968 117,342 118,793 117,718 118,492 120,259 123,060 124,900 126,708 3,208 3,169 3,199 3,223 3,269 3,247 3,115 3,409 3,440 3,443 109,232 111,800 114,142 115,570 114,449 115,245 117,144 119,651 121,460 123,264 5,122 4,965 4,657 4,950 5,874 6,240 6,230 4,414 4,279 4,123 7,425 6,701 6,528 7,047 8,628 9,613 8,940 7,996 7,404 7,236 1,983 1,610 1,375 1,525 2,357 3,408 3,094 2,860 2,363 2,316 62,888 62,944 62,523 63,324 64,578 64,700 65,638 65,758 66,280 66,647 65.6 65.9 66.5 66.5 66.2 66.4 66.3 66.6 66.6 66.8 61.5 62.3 63.0 62.8 61.7 61.5 61.7 62.5 62.9 63.2 6.2 5.5 5.3 5.6 6.8 7.5 6.9 6.1 5.6 5.4 1996: Apr . 200,101 200,278 200,459 200,641 200,847 201,060 201,273 201,463 201,636 202,285 202,388 202,513 202,674 133,427 133,759 133,709 134,165 133,898 134,291 134,636 134,831 135,022 135,848 135,634 136,319 136,098 126,125 126,428 126,590 126,889 126,988 127,248 127,617 127,644 127,855 128,580 128,430 129,175 129,384 3,412 3,474 3,408 3,470 3,418 3,480 3,450 3,354 3,426 3,468 3,292 3,386 3,497 122,713 122,954 123,182 123,419 123,570 123,768 124,167 124,290 124,429 125,112 125,138 125,789 125,887 4,251 4,109 4,161 4,150 4,182 4,130 4,118 3,815 4,162 4,163 4,098 3,937 4,235 7,302 7,331 7,119 7,276 6,910 7,043 7,019 7,187 7,167 7,268 7,205 7,144 6,714 2,387 2,354 2,353 2,326 2,273 2,277 2,294 2,184 2,179 2,155 2,163 2,064 2,092 66,674 66,519 66,750 66,476 66,949 66,770 66,637 66,632 66,614 66,437 66,754 66,194 66,577 66.7 66.8 66.7 66.9 66.7 66.8 66.9 66.9 67.0 67.2 67.0 67.3 67.2 63.0 63.1 63.2 63.2 63.2 63.3 63.4 63.4 63.4 63.6 83.5 63.8 63.8 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.2 4.9 July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1997: Jan;! Peb Mar * Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc. 2 Civilian labor force (or employment) an percent of civilian noninstitutional population; and unemployment as percent of civilian labor force. •"'Not strietiy comparable with earlier data. 4 Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods because of a major redesign of the household survey questionnaire. NOTE.—Data beginning January 1997 reflect revised population controls. S«e Employment d'nd Earnings, February 1997, for details. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. ii SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In April, the unemployment rate fell to 4.9 percent, from 5.2 percent in March. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT * (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 25 TEENAGERS (16-19) 20 15 10 10 MEN 20 YEARS AND OVER 1993 1997 1994 1995 1996 "UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1997 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) By sex and age All civilian workers Period 6.2 5.5 5.3 5.6 6.8 7.5 6.9 6.1 5.6 5.4 1987 . 1988 1989 1990 .. 1991 1992 1993 19942 1995 1996 1996- Apr May July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1997: Jan Peb Mar Apr .. 1 2 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.2 4.9 Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over 5.4 4.8 4.5 5.0 6.4 7.1 6.4 5.4 4.8 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.2 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.2 5.4 4.9 4.7 4.9 5.7 6.3 5.9 5.4 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.9 4.7 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.4 By race Both sexes 16-19 years 16.9 15.3 15.0 15.5 18.7 20.1 19.0 17.6 17.3 16.7 16.8 16.6 16.2 16.7 17.0 16.0 16.3 16.8 16.5 17.0 17.5 16.4 15.4 Revised definition; for details, see Employment and Earnings, February 1994. Data Data beginning January !„„ 1994 . are — not directly ._, comparable with data for earlier perioc r _. NOTE.—Data relate to persons age 16 years and over. 12 White 5.3 4.7 4.5 4.8 6.1 6.6 6.1 5.3 4.9 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.2 Black and other 11.6 10.4 10.0 10.1 11.1 12.7 11.7 10.5 9.6 9.3 9.4 9.3 9.1 9.3 8.9 9.2 9.3 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.7 9.5 9.0 By selected groups Black 13.0 11.7 11.4 11.4 12.5 14.2 13.0 11.5 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.3 10.2 10.5 10.4 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.8 11.3 10.7 9.8 Experienced wage and salary workers Married men, spouse present Women who maintain families Fall-time workers ' Part-time workers ' 5.8 5.2 5.0 5.3 6.6 7.2 6.6 5.9 5.4 5.2 3.9 3.3 3.0 3.4 4.4 5.1 4.4 3.7 3.3 3.0 9.2 8.1 8.1 8.3 9.3 10.0 9.7 8.9 8.0 8.2 6.0 5.3 5.1 5.4 6.8 7.5 6.9 6.1 5.5 5.3 6.9 6.4 6.2 6.4 7.0 7.5 7.2 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.3 5.4 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 7.3 8.5 7.8 8.8 8.5 8.3 8.5 8.8 8.4 9.1 9.0 9.1 7.5 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.3 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 4.8 5.9 5.9 5.6 6.0 5.9 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.8 5.7 6.0 5.7 5.7 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In April, the percentages of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 5-14 weeks fell; the percentages for 15-26 weeks and for 27 weeks and over rose. The mean duration of unemployment fell to 15.2 weeks and the median duration rose to 8.3 weeks. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION PERCENT DISTRIBUTION " 70 70 10 - * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED I/BEGINNING JANUARY ^ 99A, JOB LOSERS AND PERSONS WHO COMPLETED TEMPORARY JOBS. SOURCE- DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Reason for unemployment: percent distribution Duration of unemployment Period Unemployment (thousands) Percent distribution Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks State programs Number of weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Median Job losers l Job leavers Iteentrants New entrants Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) 2 Weekly average, thousands 1987 1988 1989 . 1990 1991 .. 1992 1993 . . 1994" 1995 . 1996 1996: Apr July Sept Oct Nov Dec . 1997: Jan Feb 7,425 6,701 6,528 7,047 8,628 9,613 8,940 7,996 7,404 7,236 7,302 7,331 7,119 7,276 6,910 7,043 7,019 7,187 7,167 7,268 7,205 7,144 6,714 43.7 46.0 48.6 46.3 40.3 35.1 36.5 34.1 36.5 36.4 34.2 37.1 35.8 36.0 36.2 35.8 35.9 38.9 37.1 39.0 36.3 37.4 35.7 29.6 30.0 30.3 32.0 32.4 29.4 28.9 30.1 31.6 31.6 32.5 31.1 31.0 31.9 31.4 31.9 31.8 31.0 32.7 31.0 33.4 33.6 32.7 12.7 12.0 11.2 11.7 14.4 15.1 14.5 15.5 14.6 14.6 15.3 14.1 14.8 13.7 14.3 14.8 14.9 14.0 13.5 13.1 14.4 14.1 16.0 14.0 12.1 9.9 10.0 12.9 20.3 20.1 20.3 17.3 17.4 18.0 17.6 18.3 18.4 18.1 17.6 17.3 16.1 16.7 16.9 15.9 15.0 15.7 1 Beginning January 1994, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs. 2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Kieo, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), and Federal (UCFE). Railroad (Rlt) programs included through 1993. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation or Emergency Unemployment Compensation programs. ;J Data beginning January 1994 are riot directly comparable with data for earlier periods. 14.5 13.5 11.9 12.0 13.7 17.7 18.0 18.8 16.6 16.7 17.3 16.9 17.2 16.9 17.2 16.9 16.7 16.0 15.8 16.0 16.0 15.3 15.2 6.5 5.9 4.8 5.3 6.8 8.7 8.3 9.2 8.3 8.3 8.6 8.4 8.1 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.3 7.7 7.8 7.7 8.4 7.9 8.3 48.0 46.1 45.7 48.1 54.4 56.1 54.2 47.7 46.9 46.6 48.3 46.4 48.0 46.4 44.9 46.0 45.1 45.3 44.4 44.8 43.7 44.6 44.3 13.0 14.7 15.7 14.8 11.6 10.4 10.9 9.9 11.1 10.7 9.9 9.4 9.9 10.5 11.2 11.4 11.3 11.5 11.7 12.3 10.9 11.0 11.2 26.6 27.0 28.2 27.4 24.8 23.8 24.6 34.8 34.1 34.7 34.0 36.8 34.4 35.0 35.8 34.7 35.4 35.1 35.3 34.6 36.6 35.4 36.0 12.4 12.2 10.4 9.8 9.2 9.7 10.3 7.6 7.8 8.0 7.8 7.4 7.7 8.2 8.0 7.9 8.2 8.1 8.6 8.3 8.9 9.0 8.6 2,300 2,081 2,158 2,522 3,342 3,245 2,751 2,670 2,575 2,594 2,584 2,554 2,572 2,535 2,524 2,468 2,470 2,444 2,518 2,453 2,375 2,294 2,274 328 310 330 388 447 408 341 340 357 356 356 349 355 334 325 335 334 338 355 334 311 312 333 2,369 2,135 2,205 2,575 3,406 3,348 2,845 2,739 2,636 2,649 2,934 2,351 2,382 2,550 2,254 2,184 2,045 2,104 2,744 3,032 3,036 2,950 NOTE.—Data relate to persons age 16 years of age and over (except for insured unemployment and initial claims). Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 142,000 in April. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) 130 36 ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 120 34 \ 32 SERVICES 110 30 28 26 90 24 SERVICE-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES RETAIL TRADE 22 - 80 20 70 18 40 20 16 MANUFACTURING 18 GOCJDS-PRODUC NG INDUSTRIES 30 — 20 , l,,m ^ 1993 — \ 6 CONSTRUCTION 4 iimlimi m i i i n m i i m l i m i i m i l m n 1994 1995 1996 1997 ' 1993 1995 1994 1996 1997 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salaiy workers;' seasonally adjusted] Service-producing industries Goods-producing industries Period 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 . 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1996: Apr June July Sept . Oct Dec 1997: Jan . Feb MarP Aor^ Total nonagricultural employment 101,958 105,210 107,895 109,419 108,256 108,604 110,730 114,172 117,203 119,554 118,922 119,332 119,537 119,772 120,052 120,050 120,311 120,492 120,723 120,982 121,296 121,435 121,577 Manufacturing ConTotal2 24,674 25,125 25,254 24,905 23,745 23,231 23,352 23,908 24,206 24,259 24,209 24,263 24,274 24,264 24,298 24,257 24,284 24,319 24,356 24,399 24,508 24,499 24,442 struction 4,958 5,098 5,171 5,120 4,650 4,492 4,668 4,986 5,158 5,407 5,353 5,384 5,401 5,427 5,437 5,449 5,464 5,491 5,520 5,535 5,639 5,614 5,570 Total Durable goods 18,999 19,314 19,391 19,076 18,406 18,104 18,075 18,321 18,468 18,282 18,283 18,303 18,298 18,267 18,291 18,241 18,254 18,262 18,270 18,296 18,299 18,316 18,302 11,154 11,363 11,394 11,109 10,569 10,277 10,221 10,448 10,654 10,676 10,654 10,679 10,696 10,680 10,711 10,675 10,684 10,694 10,710 10,734 10,746 10,764 10,761 Nondurable goods 7,845 7,951 7,997 7,968 7,837 7,827 7,854 7,873 7,814 7,606 7,629 7,624 7,602 7,587 7,580 7,566 7,570 7,568 7,560 7,562 7,553 7,552 7,541 1 Includes all ftill- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total in this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from 14 Total 77,284 80,086 82,642 84,514 84,511 85,373 87,378 90,264 92,997 95,296 94,713 95,069 95,263 95,508 95,754 95,793 96,027 96,173 96,367 96,583 96,788 96,936 97,135 Transportation and public utilities 5,362 5,514 5,625 5,793 5,762 5,721 5,829 5,993 6,165 6,316 6,294 6,309 6,329 6,333 6,342 6,337 6,338 6,350 6,340 6,378 6,403 6,416 6,434 Wholesale trade 5,848 6,030 6,187 6,173 6,081 5,997 5,981 6,162 6,412 6,587 6,550 6,567 6,575 6,585 6,603 6,619 6,643 6,651 6,655 6,662 6,690 6,709 6,710 Retail trade 18,422 19,023 19,475 19,601 19,284 19,356 19,773 20,507 21,173 21,597 21,415 21,485 21,568 21,671 21,672 21,702 21,803 21,857 21,931 21,922 21,940 21,993 22,025 Finance, insurance, Services and real estate 6,533 6,630 6,668 6,709 6,646 6,602 6,757 6,896 6,830 6,977 6,942 6,964 6,967 6,987 6,999 7,009 7,026 7,038 7,052 7,062 7,077 7,095 7,118 24,110 25,504 26,907 27,934 28,336 29,052 30,197 31,579 33,107 34,359 34,117 34,285 34,378 34,448 34,532 34,607 34,709 34,780 34,865 35,015 35,101 35,173 35,266 Government Total 17,010 17,386 17,779 18,304 18,402 18,645 18,841 19,128 19,310 19,461 19,395 19,459 19,446 19,484 19,606 19,519 19,508 19,497 19,524 19,544 19,577 19,550 19,582 Federal 2,943 2,971 2,988 3,085 2,966 2,969 2,915 2,870 2,822 2,757 2,776 2,776 2,756 2,752 2,739 2,739 2,731 2,733 2,729 2,725 2,714 2,709 2,709 employing establishments. In the series shown here, persons who work at more than one job are counted each time they appear on a payroll, hi contrast to the series shown on p. 11, where persons are counted only once—as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force. 2 Includes mining, not shown separately. NOTE.—Data for March 1996-Angust 1996 were revised in October 1996 to reflect revised seasonal adjustment factors. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICUITURAL INDUSTRIES |For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as rioted] Average weekly hours Total wivate iionagrieultural ' Manufacturing Total private nonagricultura! ' Period 34.8 34.7 34.6 34.5 34.3 34.4 34.5 34.7 34.5 34.4 34.3 34.2 34.7 34.2 34.4 34.7 34.3 34.6 34.8 34.2 34.9 34.9 34.6 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 . 1994 1995 1996 1996: Apr June July Sept Oct Dec 1997: Jan Peb . MarP Total Overtime 41.0 41.1 41.0 40.8 40.7 41.0 41.4 42.0 41.6 41.6 41.5 41.7 41.8 41.6 41.7 41.7 41.7 41.7 42.0 41.7 41.9 42.1 42.2 Average gross weekly earnings Average gross hourly earnings 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.7 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.9 5.0 Current dollars $8.98 9.28 9.66 10.01 10.32 10.57 10.83 11.12 11.44 11.82 11.72 11.74 11.83 11.81 11.87 11.91 11.90 11.99 12.04 12.05 12.10 12.15 12.14 1982 dollars2 Total private rionagrieultural ' Manufacturing $7.73 7.69 7.64 7.52 7.45 7.41 7.39 7.40 7.40 7.43 7.40 7.40 7.45 7.42 7.45 7.45 7.41 7.45 7.46 7.46 7.47 7.50 7.49 $9.91 10.19 10.48 10.83 11.18 11.46 11.74 12.07 12.37 12.78 12.74 12.73 12.77 12.79 12.89 12.87 12.88 12.94 12.99 13.03 13.02 13.08 13.09 Percent change from a year ear ier, total private nonagricultural -! Current dollars Current dollars 1982 dollars2 Manufacturing Construction Retail trade $312.50 $269.16 266.79 264.22 259.47 255.40 254.99 254.87 256.73 255.29 255.73 253.95 253.00 258.50 253.71 258.17 258.46 254.31 257.67 259.60 255.02 260.83 261.75 259.28 $406.31 418.81 429.68 441.86 455.03 469.86 486.04 506.94 514.59 531.65 528.71 530.84 533.79 532.06 537.51 536.68 537.10 539.60 545.58 543.35 545.54 550.67 552.40 $480.44 495.73 513.17 526.01 533.40 537.70 553.63 573.00 585.10 600.23 594.39 581.78 595.98 598.30 599.46 599.46 603.34 604.90 607.61 594.22 614.64 613.45 616.18 $178.70 183.62 188.72 194.40 198.48 205.06 209.95 216.46 221.47 229.82 225.94 228.38 232.00 227.66 230.69 231.49 232.18 235.77 235.82 234.77 241.08 240.61 238.71 322.02 334.24 345.35 353.98 363.61 373.64 385.86 394.68 406.61 402.00 401.51 410.50 403.90 408.33 413.28 408.17 414.85 418.99 412.11 422.29 424.04 420.04 Current dollars 1982 dollars -1.0 -.9 -1.0 -1.8 -1.6 2.5 3.0 3.8 3.3 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.3 2.3 3.0 2.6 3.6 4.6 2.5 3.5 4.4 2.5 3.9 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.3 4.6 n -.0 .7 -.6 .2 -.3 .6 1.8 -.4 .7 1.4 -.5 .6 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.6 2.2 -1 Based on seasonally unadjusted data. NOTE.— See Note, p. 14. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 1 Also ineJu<k's other private industry groups shown on p. 14, Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urbai wage earners and clerical workers (CPI-W) (on a 1982=100 base). 2 EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY Index (June 138.9 = 100) Pel-cent change from 3 months earlier Period Total compensation Wages and salaries 93.1 97.6 102.3 107.0 111.7 115.6 119.8 123.5 126.7 130.6 94.1 98.0 102.0 106.1 110.0 112.9 116.4 119.7 123.1 127.3 120.8 121.8 122.8 123.6 124.4 125.2 126.0 126.9 127.7 128.8 129.7 130.6 131.4 117.1 118.1 119.0 119.8 120.6 121.5 122.4 123.2 124.4 125.5 126.4 127.4 128.5 Benefits ' Total compensation Wages and salaries 12 months earlier Benefits ' Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits ' Not seasonally adjusted 1987: 19881989: 1990199119921993199419951996: Dee Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec . . 90.5 96.7 102.6 109.4 116.2 122.2 128.3 133.0 135.9 138.6 3.3 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.4 3.5 3.6 3.1 2.6 3.1 Seasonally adjusted 1994: M a r . Sept . Dec 1995: Mar Sept Dec 1996- Mar Sept Dec 1997- Mar . . . 1 Employer costs for employee benefits. NOTE.—The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries- 130.3 131.5 132.8 133.5 133.9 134.6 135.3 136.0 136.0 137.0 137.7 138.7 138.7 0.8 .8 .8 .7 .6 .6 .6 .7 .6 .9 .7 .7 .6 3.3 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.7 2.6 3.1 2.8 2.8 3.4 3.4 6.9 6.1 6.6 6.2 5.2 5.0 3.7 2.2 2.0 Not seasonally adjusted 0.5 .9 .8 .7 .7 .7 .7 .7 1.0 .9 .7 .8 .9 1.1 .9 1.0 .5 .3 .5 .5 .5 0 .7 .5 .7 0 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.4 4.4 3.9 4.0 3.7 2.9 2.6 2.1 2.2 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.0 Data exclude farm and household workers. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output per hour of all persons Period Business sector Nonfarni business sector Output ' Business sector Compensation per hoiir :t Hours of all persons - Xonf'arm business sector Business seetor Nonfann business seetor Business sector Nonfarrn business sector Real compensation per lour 4 Business sector t'rii labor costs Nonfann business sector Business sector Implicit price deflator 5 \onfarin business sector Business sector Xonfann business sector Indexes, 1992 = 100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 94.1 94.6 95.4 96.1 96.7 100.0 100.2 100.7 100.8 101.8 94.6 95.2 95.7 96.2 96.9 100.0 100.2 100.6 100.9 101.6 91.1 94.6 97.8 98.6 96.9 100.0 102.7 107.0 109.6 112.9 91.3 95.1 98.1 98.8 97.1 100.0 102.9 107.0 109.9 113.0 96.8 100.0 102.5 102.6 100.2 100.0 102.5 106.2 108.8 110.9 96.5 99.9 102.5 102.7 100.2 100.0 102.8 106.3 108.9 111.2 79.9 83.5 85.8 90.7 95.1 100.0 102.5 104.5 107.8 111.8 80.2 83.6 85.9 90.6 95.1 100.0 102.3 104.3 107.7 111.6 98.7 99.0 97.1 97.4 97.9 100.0 99.5 99.0 99.2 100.0 99.1 99.2 97.1 97.3 97.9 100.0 99.3 98.8 99.1 99.8 84.9 88.2 89.9 94.4 98.3 100.0 102.3 103.8 106.9 109.9 84.8 87.8 89.7 94.1 98.1 100.0 102.1 103.7 106.7 109.8 83.8 86.8 90.4 94.1 97.7 100.0 102.5 104.8 107.2 108.9 83.6 86.4 90.0 93.8 97.6 100.0 102.5 104.9 107.2 108.8 100.1 99.7 99.9 100.9 100.1 99.7 100.1 100.8 101.4 102.1 102.8 104.4 101.6 102.2 103.3 104.7 101.3 102.3 102.9 103.5 101.4 102.6 103.2 103.9 101.7 102.3 102.8 103.3 101.5 102.0 102.5 103.0 99.6 99.5 99.6 99.3 99.5 99.3 99.3 99.0 101.5 102.6 102.9 102.4 101.4 102.4 102.4 102.2 101.7 102.4 102.7 103.3 101.8 102.4 102.6 103.3 100.4 100.6 101.0 101.1 100.3 100.6 101.0 101.1 104.9 106.6 107.7 108.7 104.9 106.7 107.8 108.8 104.4 106.0 106.6 107.6 104.6 106.1 106.7 107.6 104.0 104.2 104.7 105.5 103.8 104.1 104.5 105.4 99.4 99.0 98.6 98.7 99.2 98.9 98.4 98.6 103.6 103.6 103.7 104.4 103.4 103.5 103.5 104.3 103.9 104.4 105.1 105.6 103.9 104.5 105.3 105.7 100.4 100.8 101.1 101.0 100.5 100.9 101.3 101.0 108.8 109.0 110.3 110.4 109.0 109.2 110.6 110.7 108.4 108.2 109.0 109.3 108.4 108.3 109.1 109.5 106.2 107.3 108.3 109.4 106.2 107.2 108.2 109.3 98.7 99.0 99.3 99.8 98.7 98.9 99.3 99.6 105.8 106.5 107.1 108.4 105.6 106.3 106.8 108.1 106.4 107.0 107.5 107.8 106.5 107.1 107.5 107.8 m IV 101.5 101.8 101.9 102.2 101.5 101.7 1.01.7 101.9 111.2 112.6 113.2 114.5 111.4 112.7 113.3 114.6 109.6 110.6 111.1 112.1 109.8 110.9 111.4 112.5 110.3 111.4 112.5 113.5 110.2 111.3 112.2 113.2 99.7 99.9 100.2 100.3 99.6 99.8 99.9 100.0 108.7 109.5 110.4 111.1 108.5 109.4 110.3 111.0 108.2 108.8 109.2 109.5 108.1 108.7 109.0 109.3 1997: IP 102.7 102.5 116.4 116.5 113.3 113.8 114.7 114.5 100.8 100.6 111.7 111.7 110.0 109.9 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1993- I II III IV 1994- I II Ill IV 1995: I II in IV 1996: I .. II Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 -0.1 .5 .8 .7 .7 3.4 .2 .5 .1 1.0 -0.3 .6 .6 .5 .7 3.2 .2 .5 .3 .7 2.9 3.8 3.4 .8 -1.7 3.2 2.7 4.2 2.5 3.0 -3.5 -1.6 .8 3.8 -3.8 -1.8 1.7 2.8 -1.7 .5 1.9 .1 3.0 2.9 4.0 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.3 2.5 .1 23 2 2^5 3.7 2.4 2.0 3.2 3.5 2.6 .2 25 -.2 2.8 3.5 2.4 2.2 3.8 4.5 2.8 5.7 4.8 5.2 2.5 1.9 3.1 3.8 3.7 4.3 2.7 5.5 4.9 5.2 2.3 2.1 3.2 3.6 0.2 .3 -2.0 .3 .6 2.1 -.5 -.6 .3 .8 0.1 .1 -2.1 .1 .7 2.1 -1.2 2.5 3.0 6.5 -.9 2.7 4.1 5.4 2.4 4.2 2.2 2.6 3:0 4.6 2.4 2.6 1.9 2.6 2.0 2.0 1.3 2.1 1.8 2.0 -1.0 -1.3 -1.8 1.0 1.7 .4 1.7 6.9 4.1 3.7 .8 7.0 4.2 4.0 3.5 6.4 2.1 3.6 2.7 6.0 2.4 3.6 2.8 .7 2.0 2.9 -2.6 1.4 1.4 -.6 -2.2 1.5 1.7 1 f> \..Ci .4 .7 4.7 .5 .6 .9 5.0 .4 3.0 7 3.3 1.1 2.9 6 3.2 1.5 rv 2.1 1.2 .3 1.2 1.9 .6 0 1.1 3.0 5.0 2.2 4.8 2.7 4.8 1.9 4.9 .8 3.8 1.9 3.5 .8 4.1 1.9 3.8 1997. IP 2.1 2.0 . 6.8 6.8 4.5 4.7 . 1993 1994 1995 1996 . . 1993: I II III rv 1994: I II III rv 1995: I II III rv 1996: I H III . . 1 3.0 4.1 3.2 .7 1 Q -L.O Output refers to real gross domestic product originating in the sector. 2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for soeial insurance arid private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed. 4 Hourly compensation divided bv the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPIU). 5 Current dollar gross domestic output divided by the output index. 16 -.5 .3 .7 3.9 3.9 1.9 5.0 4.1 1.7 2.3 1.4 3.0 2.8 4.0 3.6 2.1 5.0 4.2 1.9 2.1 1.6 2.9 2.9 2.6 3.5 4.2 4.0 3.8 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.3 1.6 2.6 3.4 4.2 4.2 4.1 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.2 1.5 'l -1.6 -.8 -.1 -1.2 5.6 4.3 1.2 -1.8 5.2 4.0 .1 -.7 3.5 2.5 1.4 2.4 3.8 2.1 1.2 2.6 2.9 1.3 1.8 3.3 .7 -1.6 -1.7 .4 .9 -1.1 -1.9 .8 4.6 .2 .1 2.8 4.9 .3 .1 2.9 2.4 1.8 2.7 2.1 2.5 2.2 2.9 1.9 2.8 4.1 3.6 4.3 2.9 4.0 3.7 4.0 .1 .9 1.5 1.8 .2 .9 1.5 1.5 5.5 2.6 2.2 5.0 5.3 2.5 1.9 5.2 3.0 2.1 2.0 1.0 3.0 2.0 1.7 .9 3.2 4.3 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.9 3.3 3.6 -.1 .9 1.1 .3 .1 .5 .7 .2 1.0 3.1 3.4 2.4 1.5 3.3 3.3 2.5 1.5 2.4 1.3 1.1 1.4 2.1 1.2 1.2 4.5 4.7 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.7 1.8 2.0 0 >J NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Data based on (JDP data released April 30, 1997. Data for 1997: I shown elsewhere in this issue were released May 30, 1997. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production was unchanged in April. Capacity utilization fell to 83.4 percent. INDEX, 1992 . 100' (RATIO SCALE) 140 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 130 INDEX, 1992 = 100' (RATIO SCALE| 120 130 BUSiNFSS EQUIPMENT 120 , 150 FINAL PRODUCTS 110 140 s- V .ss^ ^y 110 100 ^ rcrr^ ,,, .. "* „-"- \ 100 MANUFACTURING GOODS "--.... 130 \ 120 "\ 110 DEFENSE AND SPACE EQUIPMENT 100 .- 7 \ *\ ,"'""'•*.. .S' " 70 _LL 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 140 UTILITIES AND MINING I,,,,, 1 II 1 1 1 i Mll| 1 || || PERCENT' 130 CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE (TOTAL INDUSTRY] 120 UTILITIES '—^"^ 110 ^-^ -~x_y100 |m|| 1 1 n i 1 1 1 1 1 1995 1993 1993 1996 1 1 1 II 1 II 1 I! M i l l 1995 1994 m| 1 1 1 1 1 1996 1997 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Percent change Period Index, 1992 = 100 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1996- Apr May ... June July ... Aufir .... Sept Oct Nov . ... Dee 1997- Jan'r Feb1 Mar " .. 1 Percent changes based on unrounded indexes. Output as percent of capacity. l Manufacturing Prom year earlier Durable Total Nondurable Mining Utilities Total industry Manufacturing -2.0 3.2 3.4 5.0 3.3 2.8 92.8 97.1 99.0 98.5 96.2 100.0 103.7 109.4 113.2 116.3 92.0 98.1 100.5 99.0 95.5 100.0 105.5 113.4 119.7 125.7 93.8 96.0 97.3 97.9 97.0 100.0 101.7 105.0 106.2 106.3 101.5 102.9 101.5 103.7 101.6 100.0 98.9 101.5 100.9 102.9 89.4 93.9 97.1 98.3 100.4 100.0 103.9 105.3 109.1 112.8 81.3 83.9 84.0 82.3 79.2 80.4 81.6 83.7 83.8 83.1 81.3 83.8 83.6 81.4 78.0 79.5 80.8 83.1 83.1 82.1 4.6 4.4 1.8 93.1 97.3 99.0 98.9 96.9 100.0 103.4 108.6 112.1 115.2 1987 1988 2 From preceding month Capacity utilization rate, percent2 Industry production indexes, 1992 = 100 Total industrial production ~~ .J& 114.3 114.8 115.5 115.5 115.8 116.0 116.2 117.2 117.7 0.9 .4 .6 .0 .3 .1 .2 .8 .4 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.4 2.9 2.6 3.3 4.0 4.4 115.2 115.7 116.4 117.0 117.2 117.4 117.6 118.5 119.2 124.6 125.2 126.3 126.9 127.5 127.2 127.1 128.4 128.8 105.2 105.5 105.9 106.4 106.2 106.9 107.4 107.9 108.8 102.9 103.2 104.4 103.1 104.5 103.4 103.4 103.5 104.5 113.5 114.6 114.0 109.4 110.8 111.1 111.9 114.5 112.6 83.1 83.2 83.5 83.2 83.2 83.1 83.0 83.4 83.5 82.0 82.0 82.3 82.4 82.3 82.1 82.0 82.4 82.5 117.8 118.4 119.0 119.0 .1 .5 .6 .0 4.8 4.0 5.1 4.1 119.3 120.1 120.8 120.5 129.5 130.9 131.9 131.5 108.5 108.7 108.9 108.8 103.6 105.7 106.6 106.1 112.7 109.8 110.8 113.0 83.3 83.5 83.7 83.4 82.4 82.7 82.8 82.4 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1992 = 100; monthly data seasonally actuated] Products Materials Final products Intermediate products Consumer goods Equipment Period Total Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total 1 Business Defense and space equipment Business supplies Total Total Construction supplies Energy 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 93.2 97.6 99.7 99.4 97.5 100.0 103.2 107.1 109.9 112.8 93.7 96.7 97.7 97.3 97.0 100.0 103.2 107.4 108.9 110.5 93.9 99.8 101.3 98.0 93.0 100.0 110.1 120.4 122.8 126.2 93.6 95.9 96.7 97.1 98.1 100.0 101.5 104.1 105.3 106.5 92.7 99.1 103.0 102.7 98.4 100.0 103.0 106.6 111.6 116.8 85.1 93.5 98.8 98.2 95.7 100.0 105.1 111.3 119.4 126.6 117.5 117.1 117.4 115.9 106.7 100.0 93.5 86.2 80.7 77.0 100.7 102.5 102.9 101.9 97.5 100.0 102.5 106.1 107.5 109.4 104.7 106.3 105.5 102.9 96.2 100.0 103.3 110.3 111.6 116.8 98.4 100.3 101.3 101.4 98.3 100.0 102.0 103.6 105.0 105.1 90.4 95.1 97.0 97.2 95.9 100.0 103.9 111.3 116.6 120.3 96.2 98.5 99.5 100.6 100.8 100.0 99.6 101.4 102.7 103.9 1996- Apr May 112.1 112.2 113.1 113.4 113.0 113.3 113.6 114.8 115.3 109.8 110.0 110.8 110.7 110.1 110.5 110.8 112.3 112.7 125.7 126.9 129.9 129.7 128.0 127.1 124.5 127.1 128.4 105.9 105.8 106.0 106.0 105.6 106.3 107.3 108.5 108.7 115.9 116.0 117.1 118.1 117.9 118.1 118.4 119.0 119.6 125.1 125.0 126.6 128.1 127.7 128.3 128.8 129.8 130.7 77.4 77.9 77.0 77.7 77.9 77.7 77.0 76.1 76.2 107.7 108.9 109.7 108.9 110.0 110.6 110.2 111.9 111.3 114.2 116.1 118.3 117.5 119.2 119.8 117.7 120.7 117.8 103.9 104.6 104.6 103.9 104.6 105.3 105.8 106.8 107.4 119.5 120.1 120.5 120.5 121.5 121.2 121.7 122.2 123.1 104.2 104.6 104.8 102.4 104.0 103.9 103.9 104.0 103.9 115.1 115.7 116.7 116.3 111.7 111.7 112.5 111.8 127.3 129.4 131.7 127.0 107.8 107.3 107.8 108.0 120.8 122.7 123.9 124.0 132.1 133.8 134.9 135.0 74.7 75.5 75.7 75.7 111.6 112.0 112.0 112.5 117.0 119.5 120.1 120.1 108.4 107.6 107.3 108.0 123.4 124.0 124.6 124.7 103.8 103.6 103.6 104.2 July Sept Oct Nov Dec 1997: Jan' Pebr Mar' AorP 1 . . Includes oil and gas well drilling and manufactured homes, not shown separately. [1992 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Durable manufactures Primary metals Period Total 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 .... 1993 1994 .. . 1995 1996 1996: Apr May " * July Sept Oct Nov Dec 1997- Jan' Febr Mar' AprP .. . Industrial machinery and equipment Electrical machinery Total Motor vehicles and parts Lumber and products Apparel products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Foods 97.8 106.2 104.9 104.0 96.7 100.0 105.5 113.0 115.7 117.2 95.4 107.6 106.2 106.4 96.0 100.0 107.1 113.2 116.3 116.4 101.9 106.1 104.8 101.2 96.2 100.0 104.4 112.0 115.7 118.6 86.0 97.0 103.0 100.1 95.4 100.0 109.9 125.3 141.4 156.4 75.6 82.5 85.8 87.7 89.6 100.0 110.0 126.3 148.2 163.3 96.1 101.1 105.1 102.3 96.5 100.0 103.7 107.4 105.0 106.1 94.9 100.2 101.2 95.3 88.5 100.0 113.7 129.7 128.5 126.9 104.9 105.1 104.3 101.6 94.5 100.0 100.9 105.9 106.2 109.7 105.5 103.6 100.3 97.2 97.8 100.0 102.4 106.5 103.3 98.2 102.5 103.4 103.5 103.1 99.1 100.0 100.8 100.5 99.8 98.4 87.0 92.2 95.1 97.3 96.4 100.0 101.0 104.1 106.5 108.9 93.5 94.9 95.9 97.0 98.4 100.0 102.1 103.7 105.7 106.3 116.1 116.3 117.0 118.0 118.3 119.5 122.1 118.5 118.8 114.6 115.7 117.1 118.0 118.2 117.4 123.2 115.9 116.7 117.8 118.4 118.9 119.1 119.4 119.3 119.3 119.1 119.5 153.3 154.3 156.1 157.7 159.6 159.4 159.9 161.7 162.9 161.1 161.8 164.0 163.8 164.6 165.2 165.6 167.2 168.8 106.4 106.8 107.1 109.5 109.3 107.3 105.3 109.5 109.6 130.3 130.5 130.4 134.1 132.8 127.0 121.2 128.9 127.9 110.3 110.4 112.4 109.3 111.4 110.7 109.2 113.1 108.0 99.0 99.0 99.0 98.3 98.5 98.2 97.8 97.3 91.2 96.9 97.9 97.1 97.6 97.9 99.1 99.7 100.0 99.8 106.9 107.2 107.9 109.0 108.7 109.7 111.3 111.8 114.0 105.9 105.6 106.1 106.5 105.5 106.2 107.1 107.6 108.2 117.8 120.0 119.8 119.4 118.0 118.2 116.8 116.2 119.2 119.6 120.4 120.5 164.7 166.8 168.0 169.4 168.6 172.8 176.4 178.4 111.9 111.6 112.5 108.3 132.0 129.8 129.9 121.1 108.6 112.1 112.6 113.0 96.2 95.8 96.4 95.4 100.5 100.7 100.5 101.0 113.7 112.9 112.4 112.8 108.2 108.6 108.9 108.3 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 Iron and steel Fabricated metal products Nondurable manufactures Transportation equipment NEW CONSTRUCTION [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Construction contracts3 Private Period Total new construction expenditures Residential Total New housing units Total1 Commercial and industrial 2 Other Federal and State and local Total value index (1992=100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) Billions of dollars 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 441.6 455.6 469.8 468.5 424.2 452.1 482.7 527.1 547.1 568.9 351.0 360.9 371.6 361.1 314.1 336.2 362.6 400.0 410.2 427.8 194.7 198.1 196.6 182.9 157.8 187.8 210.5 238.9 236.6 246.9 139.9 138.9 139.2 128.0 110.6 129.6 144.1 167.9 162.9 176.4 104.4 109.6 118.0 119.4 93.7 82.2 84.4 93.3 107.0 111.4 52.0 53.2 57.1 58.8 62.6 66.2 67.7 67.8 66.6 69.5 90.6 94.7 98.2 107.5 110.1 115.8 120.2 127.1 136.9 141.1 103 104 108 98 92 100 108 117 122 130 Annual rates 1996: Apr May July Sept . Oct Nov Dec 1997: Jan Feb' .. Mar' Apr* 1,019 973 961 783 577 556 589 744 862 829 Annual rates 564.6 558.5 563.1 559.3 564.7 572.3 582.5 594.0 588.1 424.2 418.1 423.1 419.3 426.7 428.4 437.0 446.1 445.4 248.0 247.5 246.9 244.9 246.0 246.4 246.9 249.2 250.3 179.3 178.2 177.7 175.6 176.5 176.2 176.6 177.4 176.7 108.1 103.1 109.2 107.7 110.9 112.4 119.7 121.8 117.4 68.2 67.5 67.0 66.7 69.7 69.6 70.4 75.1 77.8 140.4 140.4 140.0 140.0 138.0 143.9 145.5 148.0 142.7 '135 133 '131 135 138 133 126 '132 '128 '719 '832 719 '640 '706 '777 '680 '775 786 588.9 602.7 603.1 596.9 446.6 455.6 453.7 450.2 250.1 255.4 257.8 258.2 176.5 182.3 182.5 182.1 120.9 122.7 120.0 115.3 75.6 77.5 75.9 76.7 142.2 147.1 149.4 146.7 '128 129 129 131 '769 837 763 1 Includes 2 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and The McGraw-Hill Companie Inc., F.W. Dodge Division. residential improvements, not shown separately. Includes hotels and motels. P.W. Dodge series. 3 NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New private homes New private housing units Units started, by type of structure Period Total 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1 unit 2-4 units 5 or more units 1,620.5 1,488.1 1,376.1 1,192.7 1,013.9 1,199.7 1,287.6 1,457.0 1,354.1 1,476.8 1,146.4 1,081.3 1,003.3 894.8 840.4 1,029.9 1,125.7 1,198.4 1,076.2 1,160.9 1,429 1,522 1,476 1,488 1,492 1,515 1,470 1,407 1,486 1,353 1,156 1,215 1,142 1,214 1,164 1,222 1,148 1,104 1,133 1,024 24 55 48 46 44 37 45 58 60 48 249 252 286 228 284 256 277 245 293 281 1,375 1,554 1,435 1,473 1,125 1,237 1,115 1,118 43 44 40 41 207 273 280 314 65.3 58.8 55.2 37.5 35.6 30.7 29.4 35.0 33.7 45.2 408.7 348.0 317.6 260.4 137.9 139.0 132.6 223.5 244.1 270.8 Units authorized Units completed Homes sold Homes for sale at end of period J for rental housing units (percent)2 1,668.8 1,529.8 1,422.8 1,308.0 1,090.8 1,157.5 1,192.7 1,346.9 1,312.6 1,412.9 671 676 650 534 509 610 666 670 667 757 366 368 365 321 284 265 293 336 370 322 7.7 7.7 27.4 7.2 7.4 7.4 2 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.8 '1,438 '1,486 ' 1,457 '1,432 '1,454 '1,405 '1,391 '1,349 '1,391 '1,405 1,382 1,351 1,409 1,426 1,463 1,449 1,356 1,375 1,431 1,484 711 741 732 732 782 814 768 706 788 794 367 368 362 355 352 343 331 330 327 322 7.9 '1,395 1,438 1,457 1,442 1,362 1,563 1,400 '822 820 836 772 '308 300 287 286 1,534.8 1,455.6 1,338.4 1,110.8 948.8 1,094.9 1,199.1 31,371.6 1,332.5 '1,425.6 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1996: Mar May July Sept Oct Nov Dec 1997: Jan Feb' Mar' Apr* 1 Seasonally adjusted, Revised series beginning 1989 and 1994; not comparable with earlier data, except 1993 data have been revised to be comparable with new series beginning in 1994. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. 3 The 1994 total based on 17,000 permit-issuing places is 1,333.7 thousand units. 2 7.8 8.0 7.7 7.5 NOTE.—Beginning 1994, units authorized are for 19,000 places. For other data shown, units authorized are for 17,000 places. Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1995; unadjusted revised for 1996. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade In March, manufacturing and trade sales fell 0.2 percent and inventories rose $3.3 billion. According to advance data, retail sales fell 0.3 percent in April following no change in March. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE) ,200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 400 ,100 350 ,000 900 _- ^r-^ 300 MA MUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENT DRIES 800 RETAIL INVENTORIES _,-— — 1 700 250 ,- __/•— ^ •x~" MA •4UFACTURIN AN 3 TRADE SALE S 600 200 RETAIL SALES 500 150 RATIO* I. BO 400 INVENTORY-SALES RATIO 1.70 RETAIL 1.60 300 . _/-<'-\*\ 1.50 V ^— ./ x-—^^X 1.40 200 1993 1 1994 1.30 1995 1997 1996 fcMANUFACTURING "^^^ |m|| 1993 Inn, 1994 AND TRADE 1 M 1 1 1 II 1 1 ! INN 1 1 1 t 1 1996 i 1 M 1 1997 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturing and trade1 Sales2 1 M I! 1995 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period •— ^ Inventories ;i Inventories3 Sales2 Sales* Inventories3 Inventory-sales ratio4 Retail Wholesale Durable goods stores Total Nondurable goods stores Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Manufacturing and trade1 Retail Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 . 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 . .. 457,735 709,846 497,157 767,226 527,039 815,486 545,909 840,428 542,815 834,281 567,176 842,137 595,049 874,096 637,236 931,228 679,725 989,160 715,435 1,007,913 May July Sept Get Nov Dec 1997: Jan Feb' Mar? Apr'' * 207,836 219,047 237,234 239,773 243,275 251,994 267,497 290,128 303,750 314,183 105,481 112,453 121,347 121,105 119,039 122,948 133,624 149,840 159,767 165,997 102,355 106,594 115,887 118,668 124,236 129,046 133,873 140,288 143,983 148,186 1.50 1.49 1.52 1.52 1.53 1.48 1.45 1.41 1.43 1.40 1.55 1.54 1.58 1.55 1.54 1.52 1.51 1.50 1.55 1.52 254,151 201,685 257,329 '202,375 256,601 203,865 256,739 202,789 256,467 203,291 256,598 203,036 254,788 204,713 255,671 206,277 255,850 205,789 255,808 206,894 82,641 119,044 '81,580 '120,795 83,011 120,854 82,394 120,395 82,531 120,760 82,487 120,549 83,091 121,622 83,871 122,406 122,304 83,485 83,785 123,109 303,737 304,656 305,214 305,677 309,786 311,112 312,969 315,281 313,490 314,183 159,306 160,029 160,631 161,138 163,433 164,862 166,530 168,146 165,865 165,997 144,431 144,627 144,583 144,539 146,353 146,250 146,439 147,135 147,625 148,186 1.42 1.41 1.39 1.40 1.39 1.40 1.39 1.39 1.38 1.39 1.51 1.51 1.50 1.51 1.52 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.52 1.52 257,895 210,233 258,088 213,022 259,887 '212,965 212,241 85,344 124,889 87,786 125,236 '87,500 '125,465 87,090 125,151 313,980 315,938 316,507 165,441 167,380 168,564 148,539 148,558 147,943 1.37 1.36 1.37 1.49 1.48 1.49 163,903 178,801 187,009 195,550 200,062 207,663 215,878 234,893 253,066 255,808 993,301 997,426 996,035 996,284 1,000,699 1,003,397 1,004,457 1,009,086 1,008,711 1,007,913 197,334 199,431 200,038 200,078 204,254 201,892 203,419 204,987 205,561 205,560 736,237 1,011,894 746,242 1,015,934 744,628 1,019,200 207,506 211,801 209,876 699,665 '709,809 715,106 711,718 719,945 717,775 723,292 726,774 728,898 727,732 1996- Mar' 80,453 85,587 91,818 97,981 100,497 103,999 108,055 112,826 116,585 120,997 122,968 134,521 143,760 149,506 148,306 154,150 161,681 172,973 188,811 201,723 47,989 52,430 54,763 55,736 54,165 58,634 64.677 72,784 77,085 82,778 128,442 138,017 146,581 153,718 154,661 162,632 172,732 185,610 193,670 203,775 1 :! 2 4 See page 21 for manufacturing. Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seamaliy adjusted totals for month. 20 Seasonally adjusted, end of period. Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratic Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In April, manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and new orders rose; unfilled orders fell. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 320 - SHIPMENTS - 480 440 400 360 320 280 TOTAL 240 200 • INVENTORIES -TOTAL 280 DURABLE GOODS 240 160 DURABLE GOODS 200 120 160 NONDURABLE GOODS "\ NONDURABLE GOODS 120 80 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE) 320 80 280 TOTAL 240 RATIO* 2.00 200 INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO DURABLE GOODS1.80 160 1.60 / 120 NONDURABLE GOODS -~^^--^p^^_ ^ , "*V 1,40 80 1.20 1993 1994 1995 1996 M 1 I1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1! 1 1 1 1 1 11 1994 1993 1997 1 1111 11 111 1995 1 t 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Mil! 1 1 1 11 1996 1997 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturers' shipments1 Manufacturers' inventories2 Manufacturers' new orders ' Durable goods Period Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, nondcfense Nondurable goods Manufacturers' unfilled orders2 Manufacturers' inventory— shipments ratio3 Millions of dollars, se isonally adjusted, except as noted 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 ... ... ... ... 1996: Mar May July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1997: Jan . . Feb Mar' Apr' . 206,326 224,619 236,698 242,686 239,847 250,394 260,635 278,652 297,244 309,937 300,646 308,003 311,203 308,851 312,400 312,847 315,160 315,510 317,548 315,278 318,498 321,419 321,787 325,633 108,128 118,458 123,158 123,776 121,000 128,489 135,886 148,916 159,215 166,347 160,377 164,615 167,487 166,902 167,774 168,471 170,705 168,824 170,144 168,719 170,313 173,741 175,397 177,457 98,198 106,161 113,540 118,910 118,847 121,905 124,749 129,736 138,029 143,590 140,269 143,388 143,716 141,949 144,626 144,376 144,455 146,686 147,404 146,559 148,185 147,678 146,390 148,176 338,107 369,378 391,243 405,105 390,944 382,480 390,721 406,207 432,344 437,922 435,413 435,441 434,220 433,868 434,446 435,687 436,700 438,134 439,371 437,922 440,019 441,908 442,806 445,677 'Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. Shipments are the same as sales. 2 Seasonally adjusted, end of period. 117,329 126,928 133,730 141,892 140,938 144,384 147,245 151,409 161,988 161,483 161,878 161,571 160,363 160,219 159,639 159,761 160,353 160,806 161,454 161,483 161,629 162,224 162,333 162,436 220,778 242,450 257,513 263,213 250,006 238,096 243,476 254,798 270,356 276,439 273,535 273,870 273,857 273,649 274,807 275,926 276,347 277,328 277,917 276,439 278,390 279,684 280,473 283,241 :J 209,389 228,270 239,572 244,507 238,805 248,212 257,698 279,560 298,092 312,794 305,091 307,001 314,194 312,139 317,304 310,575 318,515 321,887 320,244 315,415 323,210 324,369 320,063 323,874 110,809 122,076 126,055 125,583 119,849 126,308 133,081 149,505 160,214 169,072 165,519 163,472 170,287 169,994 172,402 166,267 173,811 174,900 171,888 168,886 175,370 177,075 173,223 175,511 26,094 31,108 32,988 33,331 30,471 31,525 31,693 35,847 41,302 44,779 46,613 40,487 44,979 42,921 45,935 41,172 47,515 47,482 43,885 43,869 45,819 46,911 45,527 44,623 98,579 106,194 113,516 118,924 118,957 121,905 124,617 130,055 137,877 143,722 139,572 143,529 143,907 142,145 144,902 144,308 144,704 146,987 148,356 146,529 147,840 147,294 146,840 148,363 430,468 474,192 508,853 531,115 519,143 493,104 458,161 469,450 480,128 514,398 493,924 492,922 495,913 499,201 504,105 501,833 505,188 511,565 514,261 514,398 519,110 522,060 520,336 518,577 1.59 1.58 1.63 1.65 1.65 1.54 1.49 1.43 1.43 1.41 1.45 1.41 1.40 1.40 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.38 1.39 1.38 1.37 1.38 1.37 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES The producer price index for all finished goods fell 0.6 percent in April. Prices of finished consumer foods fell 0.4 percent, while prices of other finished consumer goods fell 0.7 percent. Capital equipment prices fell 0.4 percent. INDEX, 1982 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1982 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) 110 100 1989 1990 1996 SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1997 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1982 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Finished goods Intermediate materials Crude materials Finished goods excluding consumer foods Period Total finished goods Consumer foods Total Total 1987 1988 1989 .. 105.4 . 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996r 1996: Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Decr 1997: Jan Feb Mar Apr 108.0 113.6 119.2 121.7 123.2 124.7 125.5 127.9 131.3 130.6 130.8 131.2 131.2 131.6 132.0 132.5 132.7 133.4 133.0 132.5 132.4 131.6 109.5 112.6 118.7 124.4 124.1 123.3 125.7 126.8 129.0 133.6 131.5 131.7 133.6 133.7 134.6 135.1 136.2 136.2 135.9 134.5 134.1 135.3 134.7 104.0 106.5 111.8 117.4 120.9 123.1 124.4 125.1 127.5 130.6 130.3 130.4 130.3 130.4 130.6 131.0 131.3 131.5 132.5 132.5 132.0 131.5 130.6 100.7 103.1 108.9 115.3 118.7 120.8 121.7 121.6 124.0 127.6 127.3 127.5 127.3 127.4 127.7 128.1 128.6 129.0 130.3 130.3 129.6 128.7 127.8 1 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. NOTE.—Beginning; 1096, indexes are based on updated value weights. 22 Pood- T ntnl Olal Consumer goods Durable 111.5 113.8 117.6 120.4 123.9 125.7 128.0 130.9 132.7 134.2 133.9 134.2 134.5 134.2 134.4 134.8 134.3 134.5 134.5 134.4 134.4 134.6 134.4 N We 94.9 97.3 103.8 111.5 115.0 117.3 117.6 116.2 118.8 123.3 123.0 123.1 122.8 123.0 123.3 123.7 124.7 125.1 127.0 126.9 126.1 124.6 123.4 finished Capital equipment consumer goods 111.7 114.3 103.6 106.2 112.1 118.2 120.5 121.7 123.0 123.3 125.6 129.5 128.7 128.9 129.4 129.4 129.9 130.3 131.0 131.3 132.1 131.7 131.1 130.8 129.9 118.8 122.9 126.7 129.1 131.4 134.1 136.7 138.3 138.1 138.1 138.3 138.3 138.5 138.7 138.5 138.5 138.5 138.6 138.5 138.9 138.3 Total Foods and feeds' 101.5 107.1 112.0 99.2 109.5 113.8 114.5 114.4 114.7 116.2 118.5 124.9 125.8 125.6 126.1 125.7 125.5 125.7 126.2 126.0 125.8 126.4 126.7 126.6 125.9 125.5 113.3 111.1 110.7 112.7 114.8 114.8 128.1 125.6 130.4 131.3 131.8 132.2 133.2 130.5 126.3 125.6 126,6 125.6 127.3 127.8 stuffs and feedstuffs Other Total 101.7 106.9 111.9 114.5 114.6 114.9 116.4 118.7 125.5 125.6 125.6 125.9 125.5 125.2 125.4 125.8 125.8 125.8 126.5 126.7 126.6 125.8 125.4 93.7 96.0 103.1 108.9 101.2 96.2 106.1 111.2 113.1 105.5 100.4 102.4 101.8 102.7 113.8 114.2 115.4 112.6 115.1 115.8 112.8 112.0 115.0 122.1 125.6 118.2 110.0 109.0 105.1 108.4 106.5 105.8 121.5 119.8 126.7 127.6 129.8 129.0 124.5 120.7 117.7 114.5 113.4 111.3 113.6 117.3 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Latx>r Statistit-s. Other 87.9 85.5 93.4 101.5 94.6 93.5 94.7 94.8 96.8 104.5 106.4 103.7 98.5 101.1 102.8 100.9 102.1 109.1 122.7 129.2 118.5 103.7 99.5 CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In April, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.1 percent seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted. The index was 2.5 percent above its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1982-84 - 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1982-84 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) 180 180 SEASONAUY ADJUSTED 170 170 160 150 150 140 140 130 120 120 110 110 100 100 1989 1990 1991 1992 1994 1993 1997 1995 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1982-84=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] All items ' Transportation Housing Shelter Period Rel. imp.-* 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 .. . 1995 1996 1996: Apr May June July Aug Sept .. . Oct Nov Dec 1997: Jan Feb Mar Apr 1 Not season- Seasonally ally adjust- adjusted ed (NSA) 100.0 113.6 118.3 124.0 130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 156.3 156.6 156.7 157.0 157.3 157.8 158.3 158.6 158.6 159.1 159.6 160.0 160.2 156.1 156.5 156.7 157.1 157.4 157.9 158.3 158.8 159.2 159.4 159.8 159.9 160.0 Food Total' Total 15.9 113.5 118.2 125.1 132.4 136.3 137.9 140.9 144.3 148.4 153.3 151.8 152.1 153.1 153.8 154.4 155.1 155.8 156.4 156.4 156.0 156.5 156.5 156.2 41.2 114.2 118.5 123.0 128.5 133.6 137.5 141.2 144.8 148.5 152.8 151.8 152.2 152.3 152.9 153.2 153.5 153.9 154.4 154.7 155.2 155.6 155.6 155.9 Main- Fuel Rent- Homeand teowners' nance other ers' costs utiliand costs (Dec. ties re(Dec. 1982 = 1982 = pairs 100) 100) (NSA) 28.2 121.3 127.1 132.8 140.0 146.3 151.2 155.7 160.5 165.7 171.0 169.7 170.1 170.4 171.2 171.4 171.7 172.2 172.6 172.9 173.4 174.0 174.3 174.9 Includes items not shown separately. Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, ete. excluded beginning 1983. 3 Relative importance, December 1996, 2 8.0 128.1 133.6 138.9 146.7 155.6 160.9 165.0 169.4 174.3 180.2 178.0 178.4 178.9 180.0 180.1 180.5 181.1 181.5 181.7 182.8 183.4 183.9 184.5 20.0 124.8 131.1 137.3 144.6 150.2 155.3 160.2 165.5 171.0 176.5 175.4 175.9 176.2 176.8 177.1 177.4 177.8 178.3 178.6 179.0 179.5 179.8 180.4 0.2 111.8 114.7 118.0 122.2 126.3 128.6 130.6 130.8 135.0 139.0 138.0 138.8 138.8 139.4 139.7 139.9 140.2 141.1 141.5 141.5 142.3 142.4 142.5 7.1 103.0 104.4 107.8 111.6 115.3 117.8 121.3 122.8 123.7 127.5 126.7 127.1 126.8 127.4 128.0 128.4 129.0 129.6 130.3 131.2 131.6 130.5 130.2 Apparel and up- Total1 keep 5.3 110.6 115.4 118.6 124.1 128.7 131.9 133.7 133.4 132.0 131.7 132.2 132.1 131.7 131.5 130.3 131.0 131.3 131.7 131.8 132.3 132.6 132.2 133.4 17.1 105.4 108.7 114.1 120.5 123.8 126.5 130.4 134.3 139.1 143.0 143.1 143.6 143.1 143.1 143.1 143.8 144.3 144.8 145.7 145.4 145.3 USA 144.8 New cars Medical Motor care fuel Energy2 All items less food and energy 4.0 114.6 116.9 119.2 121.0 125.3 128.4 131.5 136.0 139.0 141.4 140.8 140.9 141.4 141.7 142.0 142.7 142.4 142.1 142.2 141.9 141.9 142.0 142.0 3.2 80.2 80.9 88.5 101.2 99.4 99.0 98.0 98.5 100.0 106.3 109.3 110.2 106.5 106.0 105.0 104.9 106.6 108.4 111.1 111.8 111.8 109.5 106.8 7.3 130.1 138.6 149.3 162.8 177.0 190.1 201.4 211.0 220.5 228.2 227.0 227.7 228.3 228.9 229.3 229.9 230.4 231.0 231.5 231.9 232.3 233.2 233.8 7.0 88.6 89.3 94.3 102.1 102.5 103.0 104.2 104.6 105.2 110.1 111.1 111.4 109.2 109.5 109.3 109.5 110.7 112.0 113.7 114.6 114.9 112.9 111.2 77.0 118.2 123.4 129.0 135.5 142.1 147.3 152.2 156.5 161.2 165.6 164.9 165.3 165.6 166.0 166.2 166.7 167.0 167.4 167.7 167.9 168.3 168.7 169.2 NOTE.—Data ineorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs (beginning 1983). Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS (Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Change from preceding period Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate Consumer goods Consumer goods Consumer goods Period Total finished goods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Excluding foods Poods Capital equipment Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA -0.2 5.7 5.2 2.6 -1.5 1.6 2.4 1.1 1.9 3.4 2.2 4.0 4.9 5.7 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 . 1995 1996 . — 1 L6 .2 1.7 2.3 2.8 4.1 3.1 5.3 8.7 -.7 1.6 -1.4 2.0 2.3 3.7 1.3 3.6 3.8 3.4 2.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.2 'A 2.1 2.5 5.2 4.9 2.1 1.2 1.2 .6 1.9 2.7 Change, month to month 1996: Apr May July Sept Oct Nov Dec 1997: Jan Feb Mar -0.3 .2 1.4 .1 .7 .4 .8 0 -.2 -1.0 -.3 .9 -.4 0.2 .2 .3 0 .3 .3 .4 .2 .5 -.3 -.4 1 -'.6 0.5 .2 -.2 .1 .2 .3 .4 .3 1.0 0 -.5 -.7 rj 2.8 3.4 2.5 1.9 2.5 2.5 4.0 3.4 4.3 1.5 g -3.0 -4.1 0 0 .1 0 .1 .1 -.1 0 '0 '.I•» .3 -.4 4.5 5.2 1.9 .3 .6 2.5 3.8 4.1 7.0 5.4 1.9 -4.8 -7.5 1.2 2.8 5.3 6.9 9.1 4.6 7.7 4.8 2.4 -4.9 -6.0 -1.8 .6 0.3 .3 .6 .6 1.2 1.2 .6 0 '-.6 .3 0 '1.2 -.9 3.3 3.1 2.5 2.3 3.0 2.5 2.9 2.9 3.4 2.8 1.4 .6 -1.4 2.6 .8 3.4 4.0 5.9 4.9 7.3 7.0 3.5 1.2 -.7 .3 -2.2 0.7 0 .4 .4 .7 .9 .6 .6 •-.3 .4 0 .3 -.3 4.9 5.6 2.9 2.4 2.9 2.2 2.1 2.4 4.8 4.6 3.0 .9 -1.2 2.4 2.3 2.7 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.6 .8 Source; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA| Transportation Housing Shelter Period All items1 Food Total 1 Total 1 Renters' costs Homeowners' costs Fuel and other utilities Appare! and Total1 upkeep New cars Motor fuel Medical care Energy2 All items less food and energy Addendum: All items, percent change (annual rate) From previous quarter 3 From From From 6 year 3 months months earlier earlier earlier NSA Change, December to December, NSA 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 4.4 4.4 4.6 6.1 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.5 3.3 3.5 5.2 5.6 5.3 1.9 1.5 2.9 2.9 2.1 4.3 3.7 4.0 3.9 4.5 3.4 2.6 2.7 2.2 3.0 2.9 4.8 4.5 4.9 5.2 3.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.5 2.9 3.9 3.9 4.5 6.7 4.2 2.8 2.6 2.3 3.0 3.4 5.3 4.7 5.1 4.7 3.7 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.7 2.8 1.6 2.9 3.2 4.0 2.9 2.3 2.5 .2 1.4 4.6 6.1 3.0 4.0 10.4 -1.5 3.0 2.4 3.8 1.5 4.4 4.8 4.7 1.0 5.1 3.4 1.4 .9 -1.6 .1 -.2 18.7 1.8 2.1 -2.1 6.8 2.3 36.5 1.4 3.3 -16.0 1.8 2.3 2.8 -5.4 5.9 3.2 -4.0 1.6 12.7 1.6 5.8 6.9 8.5 9.6 7.9 6.6 5.4 4.9 3.9 3.0 -7.4 2.0 -1.4 2.2 -1.3 8.6 4.2 4.7 4.4 5.2 4.4 3.3 3.2 2.6 3.0 2.6 4.7 .8 -3.4 -.5 -.9 0.3 .3 .3 .3 .2 .3 .2 .3 .1 .2 .2 .4 .3 3.0 .3 -2.0 .3 -.2 .2 1.1 1.2 1.5 .8 .3 -1.7 -1.5 0.2 .2 .2 .2 .1 .3 .2 .2 .2 .1 .2 .2 .3 8.2 .5 5.1 18.1 3.6 4.1 4.8 5.4 4.2 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.8 3.0 Change, month to month 1996: Apr May July Sept Get Nov Dec 1997- Jan Feb Mar 1 0.3 .3 .1 .3 .2 .3 .3 .3 .3 .1 .3 .1 .1 0.2 .2 .7 .5 .4 .5 .5 .4 0 -.3 .3 0 2 0,3 .3 .1 .4 .2 .2 .3 .3 .2 .3 .3 0 .2 0.2 .2 .2 .5 .1 .2 .3 .2 .2 .3 .3 .2 .3 0.2 .2 .3 .6 .1 .2 .3 .2 .1 .6 .3 .3 .3 0.2 .3 .2 .3 .2 .2 .2 .3 .2 .2 .3 .2 .3 0.6 .3 -.2 .5 .5 .3 .5 .5 .5 .7 .3 -.8 -.2 Includes items not shown separately. Household fiiels—gas (piped), electricity, fiiei oil, etc.- and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc., excluded beginning 1983. 2 24 1.0 .3 -0.2 -.1 O g 0 0 -.2 -.9 .5 .2 .3 .1 .5 .3 .3 .6 .4 .2 -.3 .9 — 2 1 '.1 — 4 :l 0.1 .1 .4 .2 .2 .5 -.2 -.2 .1 -.2 0 .1 0 1 1.6 1.7 2.5 .6 0 -2.1 -2.5 3.4 2.'8 3.3 2.3 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. Source: Department of Ijabor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 3.7 3.7 2.9 2.6 2.3 3.1 3.1 3.6 3.3 2.8 2.5 1.8 1.5 3.1 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 3.0 3.2 2.9 2.9 2.8 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.3 2.9 3.1 2.5 2.2 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.5 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS In May, prices received by farmers rose 0.9 percent and prices paid by farmers were unchanged. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) INDEX, 1990-92-100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1990-92=100 (RATIO SCALE) 120 110 100 80 RAT 0-^ RATI D-!' 140 140 120 120 r 100 ^ 1 ** ^ • "H |^/ '« • •* •* _~—— 100 s ~^^ 80 60 1 111111111I 1989 - 1 1111111111 1 1 11 1 11 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 111 1 11 1 11 1 1 1 11 1991 1990 1993 1992 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I I I I 1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II 1 1 1 1 II II 1 1995 1996 1997 1994 U RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 80 60 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1990-92-100; not seasonally adjusted] Prices paid by fanners Prices received by farmers Period 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 .. All farm products Livestock and products Crops All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates l Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates Production items Ratio2 89 99 104 104 100 98 101 100 102 112 86 104 109 103 101 101 102 105 112 127 91 93 100 105 99 97 100 95 92 99 87 91 96 99 100 101 104 106 109 115 87 92 97 99 100 101 102 105 108 114 87 90 95 99 100 101 103 106 108 115 102 108 108 105 99 97 97 94 93 98 1996: May .. . June July Auer Sept Oct Nov Dec 112 118 119 118 116 112 111 110 131 140 136 133 125 119 118 116 97 100 102 104 105 103 102 103 115 115 115 115 116 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 114 114 115 115 116 116 116 115 114 115 97 103 103 103 100 97 97 96 1997: Jan Peb Mar Apr May . 108 105 107 106 107 116 113 117 115 117 98 98 98 99 100 116 116 117 117 117 115 116 117 117 117 115 115 116 117 117 93 91 91 91 91 .. . .. .. .. 1 Includes items not shown separately. Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. 2 XOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1990-92 = 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK. LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES Growth in M2 and in M3 accelerated slightiy in Aprif. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE] 5,200 4,800 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 5,200 ^. , 4,800 r-"~ 4,400 , 4,000 4,000 \ ~ 3,600 3,200 4,400 » _______ M3 3,600 \ — 3,200 \ M2 " 2,800 2,800 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 ^^ ^^ 800 600 —,— —^\ Ml 1 ! 1 1 M M I 1 1 1989 M 1 11 11 M M M 1990 1 M I 1 1 1 11 800 1 1 1 1 1 1 'I M 1991 M 1992 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M II 1993 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 M 1994 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 [ M i l l 1995 M M ! 1996 AVERAGES OF DAILY FGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED jOURCE: BOARD OF QDVERNOfiS OF THE FEDERA1 RESERVE SYSTEM 1 1 1 II ( M M 1 600 1997 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period 1987198819891990: 199119921993199419951996- Dec . Dec Dec Dec Dec . Dec Dec Dec . Dec Dec . 1996- Mar May July' Sept' Ocf Dec' 1997- Jan r Feb' Mar' Ml M2 M3 Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OCDs) Ml plus retail MMMF balances, savings deposits (including MMDAs), and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, KPs, Eurodollars, and institutiononly MMMF balances 749.7 787.0 794.2 825.8 897.3 1,025.0 1,129.8 1,150.7 1,129.0 1,081.0 2,832.7 2,996.3 3,160.9 3,279.5 3,379.6 3,434.0 3,486.6 3,502.1 3,655.0 3,833.1 3,672.5 3,912.9 4,065.9 4,125.9 4,180.4 4,190.4 4,254.4 4,328.7 4,594.8 '4,927.7 4,339.9 4,663.5 4,892.8 4,976.6 5,006.2 5,078.0 5,167.8 5,309.8 '5,699.8 '6,058.1 8,664.1 9,441.6 10,171.6 10,853.0 11,341.3 11,885.6 12,514.6 13,156.4 13,875.3 '14,622.0 3.5 5.0 .9 4.0 8.7 14.2 10.2 1.8 -1.9 -4.3 3.6 5.8 5.5 3.8 3.1 1.6 1.5 .4 4.4 4.9 5.3 6.5 3.9 1.5 1.3 .2 1.5 1.7 6.1 7.2 9.6 9.0 7.7 6.7 4.5 4.8 5.3 5.1 5.5 5.4 1,126.2 1,123.5 1,117.1 1,115.5 1,108.8 1,099.8 1,093.2 1,080.2 1,080.0 1,081.0 3,713.9 3,724.5 3,725.6 3,741.9 3,750.0 3,762.8 3,775.3 3,787.8 3,809.3 3,833.1 4,691.9 4,708.7 '4,731.3 '4,753.6 4,771.2 4,791.5 4,822.6 4,857.7 4,885.0 4,927.7 '5,791.9 '5,824.0 '5,835.7 '5,869.8 5,889.9 5,920.3 5,961.4 5,984.1 6,021.8 6,058.1 14,075.6 14,145.7 14,205.5 14,265.6 14,338.7 14,395.9 14,444.9 14,507.4 14,572.5 14,622.0 -2.7 -2.1 -2.8 -2.4 -2.4 -3.6 -5.9 -7.7 -6.6 -6.2 5.2 5.2 4.7 4.8 4.4 4.2 3.3 3.4 4.5 4.9 6.2 6.2 6.6 6.9 6.4 5.9 5.6 6.3 6.5 7.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.9 5.7 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.0 1,079.7 1,080.6 1,075.2 1,065.1 3,849.7 3,866.0 3,882.4 3,901.8 4,950.1 4,987.3 5,015.7 5,050.5 6,073.7 6,124.6 f 6,167.7 14,663.3 14,722.9 " 14,786.3 -5.2 35 -3.3 -2.8 5.3 5.5 5.7 6.0 7.5 8.2 8.0 7.9 4.5 4.5 4.7 1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the I US. Government, State am! local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds amnints. 2 Annual changes are from Deceniixsr to Decemljer and monthly ehanges are from fj months earlier at a simple annual rate. 26 L Debt M3 plus other liquid assets Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors {monthly average of adjacent month -end levels) ' Percent change from year or 6 months earlier2 Ml NOTE.—See p- 21 for w>mjK>nent-s. Soim«: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. M2 M3 Debt COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Currency Period Other Decheckmand able depos- deposits its (OCDs) Money market mutual fund balances Retail i Institution only2 Savings deposits, including money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) Small denomination time deposits3 Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 196.8 212.3 222.7 246.8 267.3 292.9 322.2 354.4 372.6 395.2 286.8 286.8 279.3 277.4 289.6 339.5 385.2 384.1 391.1 402.5 259.5 280.9 285.3 293.9 332.5 384.4 414.5 403.8 356.5 274.8 224.6 245.9 321.7 357.1 371.9 353.5 354.9 384.3 455.2 536.6 92.0 92.3 110.3 138.0 185.5 207.5 209.5 198.5 246.9 299.3 937.4 926.3 893.7 923.8 1,045.0 1,187.3 1,219.2 1,149.6 1,137.1 '1,271.0 921.0 1,037.1 1,151.4 1,172.8 1,065.4 868.3 782.6 817.5 933.7 944.4 1996- Mar 375.4 376.4 377.7 379.9 382.8 385.2 387.6 390.2 392.5 395.2 404.5 404.5 407.1 410.6 408.7 405.8 404.9 398.2 402.1 402.5 337.3 333.9 323.5 316.4 308.7 300.4 292.2 283.2 276.8 274.8 476.8 481.4 484.5 493.6 499.6 506.1 513.2 520.5 527.1 536.6 263.7 263.4 263.6 269.7 274.0 278.8 285.2 288.1 292.0 299.3 1,180.2 1,190.1 1,195.6 1,204.1 1,211.0 1,222.7 1,231.5 1,246.3 1,259.0 '1,271.0 930.8 929.5 928.4 928.8 930.5 934.1 937.5 940.8 943.2 944.4 397.0 400.5 402.4 403.7 401.7 404.2 402.8 395.3 272.5 267.3 261.6 257.8 542.4 548.7 557.8 569.2 296.3 305.4 311.8 311.6 1,282.5 1,290.5 1,304.3 1,321.1 945.0 946.2 945.1 946.4 1987: 19881989: 19901991: 1992199319941995: 1996- July . .. Sept Oct Dec 1997- Jan Feb Mar 1 Balances in money funds with minimum .initial investments of less than $50,000. Balances in money funds with minimum initial investments of $50,000 or more. Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issueti in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. 2 ;i Large denom(ination time deposits ;J Overnight and term repurchase agreements (RPs) (net) Overnight and term Eurodollars (net) Savings bonds Shortterm Treasury securities Bankers' acceptances Commercial paper 467.0 172.6 108.2 189.0 117.0 518.3 158.0 95.2 541.5 138.8 480.9 88.7 119.5 79.3 416.5 128.6 353.4 67.0 333.4 158.6 66.4 363.1 182.9 82.1 419.8 182.1 91.0 489.6 '193.0 '112.7 100.6 109.4 117.5 126.0 137.9 156.6 171.5 180.2 184.8 187.0 249.5 266.8 324.0 334.1 328.8 344.7 340.5 383.0 469.7 435.7 44.5 40.2 40.7 36.1 23.8 20.8 14.8 14.0 '11.2 '12.2 272.7 334.3 344.6 354.4 335.2 365.5 386.6 403.9 439.3 495.5 187.8 94.0 188.9 96.5 202.7 97.0 '195.3 97.8 '194.1 97.9 '192.3 98.4 '194.1 101.2 '195.5 107.1 '194.6 '107.6 '193.0 '112.7 185.4 185.8 186.1 186.4 186.7 186.9 187.1 187.1 187.0 187.0 458.4 460.0 439.6 448.5 447.6 452.4 457.7 447.6 454.3 435.7 '9.9 '10.2 '10.7 '11.1 '11.5 '11.7 '12.0 '12.1 '12.2 '12.2 446.3 459.3 468.0 470.1 473.0 477.7 482.0 479.6 483.2 495.5 491.4 '196.4 '116.4 186.7 415.8 420.6 497.9 '200.3 '117.8 186.4 '506.7 '198.7 '116.1 f 186.3 P 426.3 200.3 518.8 117.9 '11.9 '12.7 P13.5 509.1 517.5 P 525.9 432.5 435.4 442.5 448.9 455.2 459.3 466.8 479.2 481.7 489.6 NOTE.—Travelers checks of nonbank issuers'are a component of money stock bi, shown here. See Note, p. 26. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE [Averages of daily figures'; millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal Reserve (NSA) Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements Reserves of depository institutions Period Total Nonborrowed Nonborrowed plus extended credit Required Monetary base Total Seasonal Extended credit Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 38,895 40,428 40,522 41,797 45,563 54,383 60,545 59,404 56,386 50,063 38,118 38,712 40,257 41,471 45,371 54,260 60,463 59,195 56,129 49,908 38,601 39,957 40,277 41,494 45,371 54,260 60,463 59,195 56,129 49,908 37,849 39,381 39,600 40,132 44,584 53,228 59,482 58,236 55,108 48,639 239,799 256,905 267,625 293,190 317,403 351,347 386,880 418,484 434,523 452,669 777 1,716 265 326 192 124 82 209 257 155 93 130 84 76 38 18 31 100 40 68 483 1,244 20 23 1 1 0 0 0 0 1996: Apr Sept Oct Nov Dec 55,155 54,168 54,038 53,221 52,181 51,280 50,076 49,811 50,063 55,064 54,040 53,652 52,854 51,847 50,912 49,789 49,597 49,908 55,064 54,040 53,652 52,854 51,847 50,912 49,789 49,597 49,908 54,035 53,308 52,888 52,156 51,221 50,242 49,082 48,776 48,639 437,075 437,881 439,686 442,262 443,999 445,812 447,077 449,365 452,669 91 127 386 368 334 368 287 214 155 34 105 192 284 309 306 212 109 68 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1997- Jan Feb Mar Apr 49,517 49,008 48.312 47,431 49,472 48,966 48,155 47,170 49,472 48,966 48,155 47,170 48,293 47,977 '47,151 46,420 '454,137 '456,284 '457,623 458,269 45 42 156 261 19 21 37 88 0 0 0 0 19871988: 19891990: 1991199219931994: 19951996: July , •* 1 Data are prorated averages of biweekly (maintenance period) averages of daily figures. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK CREDIT AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS Total commercial bank loans and leases rose 0.6 percent in April; commercial and industrial loans rose 0,8 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 3,200 4,000 3,600 3,200 2,800 2,800 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 4,000 3,600 _ ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES -V 800 800 400 400 OTHER SECURITIES 200 200 I I 1 M I I I I I I M II i I I I I I I 160 1989 1990 1992 1991 1994 1993 1995 l l l IIi l l 1 ll I I l l I I l I I I I I 160 1997 1996 COUNCR OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted' Securities in bank credit Period 19881989: 1990: 1991: 1992: 1993: 1994: 1995: 1996- Dec Dee Dee Dec Dee Dee Dec ... Dee Dee' 1996- Apr May July Aug Sept Oct' Nov ... Dee' 1997: Jan r Feb' Mar' Apr Total bank credit Total securities Loans and leases in bank credit U.S. Total loans CommerOther Governcial and and securities ment industrial leases 2 securities Total Bevolving home equity Consumer Security Other Other 2,435.4 2,609.1 2,754.6 2,859.1 2,958.5 3,118.4 3,332.5 3,612.4 3,772.5 562.2 585.1 634.9 745.8 843.0 917.6 951.9 998.6 989.4 367.4 401.0 457.0 566.1 666.2 732.7 730.6 709.5 706.5 194.9 184.2 177.9 179.7 176.8 184.9 221.2 289.1 282.9 1,873.2 2,024.0 2,119.7 2,113.2 2,115.5 2,200.7 2,380.6 2,613.8 2,783.2 607.6 638.8 641.1 619.6 596.2 586.6 646.1 717.3 783.9 676.0 771.2 857.3 881.6 902.5 942.6 1,004.6 1,079.6 1,127.8 40.0 50.2 62.2 69.6 73.4 73.0 75.3 79.1 85.3 636.0 721.0 795.0 812.1 829.1 869.6 929.3 1,000.5 1,042.5 356.3 376.7 '382.2 365.4 357.9 390.1 451.2 492.8 522.7 40.7 41.5 45.4 55.4 65.6 90.3 79.1 85.6 79.7 192.6 195.7 193.9 191.3 193.3 191.3 199.7 238.5 269.0 3,667.6 3,664.6 3,671.3 3,682.5 3,674.5 3,692.9 3,718.2 3,744.5 3,772.5 990.4 990.9 982.1 982.1 972.1 968.8 969.2 980.1 989.4 707.8 711.6 707.5 707.6 702.2 '703.3 703.4 707.2 706.5 282.6 279.3 274.5 274.5 269.9 -•265.5 265.9 272.9 282.9 2,677.2 2,673.7 2,689.3 2,700.4 2,702.4 '2,724.1 2,748.9 2,764.4 2,783.2 732.1 735.0 738.8 744.7 746.8 761.1 770.6 774.7 783.9 1,100.1 1,103.2 1,105.6 1,105.2 1,109.4 1,112.0 1,115.6 1,121.5 1,127.8 80.1 79.7 79.2 79.9 80.5 81.2 83.3 84.3 85.3 1,020.0 1,023.4 1,026.4 1,025.3 1,028.9 1,030.8 1,032.2 1,037.3 1,042.5 504.7 502.7 507.0 '510.8 512.8 515.9 519.5 521.7 522.7 85.0 77.3 79.8 78.1 72.3 73.8 76.9 77.9 79.7 255.3 255.5 258.0 261.6 261.0 261.3 266.4 268.6 269.0 3,808.0 3,847.1 3,869.0 3,905.0 1,005.0 1.020.8 i;0!4.6 1,033.7 "706.7 704.1 708.3 722.5 298.3 316.7 306.4 311.2 2,803.0 2,826.3 2,854.4 2,871.3 787.1 796.6 802.1 808.9 1,134.4 1,140.4 1,153.8 1,162.6 85.7 86.5 87.9 89.2 1,048.7 1,053.8 1,065.9 1,073.4 523.2 523.0 521.7 519.5 83.4 84.7 88.8 89.5 275.0 281.7 288.0 290.9 1 D'lia arc Wednesday values or prorated averages of Wednesday values for domestically charters! wxnniereial banks, branches ami agencies of foreign banks, New York State investment companies (through September 1998), and Edge Act and agreement corporations. Data are adjiiwtej for breaks casist.'d by reehissiftcations of assets and lifibilities. Real estate 2 Excludes Federal funds sold to, reverse repurchase agreements (RPs) with, and loans to commercial banks in the United States. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONHNANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Uses Sources External Period Total Credit market funds Internal! Total 1987 1988 1989 . 1990 1991 1992 . 1993 1994 1995 1996? 1995: .. I II Ill IV ... . 1996: I II . Ill WP 648.4 851.9 744.3 592.6 489.3 599.9 698.1 758.9 882.0 953.8 754.7 910.0 906.4 956.9 995.1 838.6 1,063.9 917.6 374.5 408.2 396.9 409.1 422.2 438.6 480.2 524.9 543.8 592.8 517.7 527.5 559.1 571.0 578.4 585.7 597.5 609.6 Total 273.9 443.7 347.4 183.5 67.1 161.3 217.9 234.0 338.2 361.0 237.0 382.5 347.3 385.9 416.7 252.9 466.4 308.0 Securities and mortgages 29.1 -.2 -35.9 -26.6 75.1 66.9 85.4 37.6 2.0 16.4 20.3 36.5 45.6 21.0 47.2 59.0 -93.5 16.4 73.2 95.5 59.0 47.0 35.6 60.9 68.9 73.2 123.3 64.7 160.9 189.0 40.7 102.5 38.1 122.0 75.7 23.2 1 Profits before tax (book) less profit tax accruals and dividends plus consumption of fixed capital, foreign earnings retained abroad, and inventory valuation adjustment. 2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, pension fund liabilities, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. Loans and short-term paper 44.1 95.7 94.9 73.6 -110.7 -6.0 16.5 110.8 125.3 81.1 181.2 152.5 86.3 81.5 85.3 63.0 169.2 6.8 Total Other2 200.8 348.1 288.4 136.5 102.7 100.4 149.0 160.9 214.9 296.2 76.2 193.5 306.7 283.4 378.7 130.9 390.7 284.8 592.0 756.2 632.9 509.8 500.7 554.4 787.9 761.7 889.0 973.4 726.4 916.8 881.6 1,031.1 973.4 928.2 1,099.1 892.8 Increase in financial assets Capital expenditures ;i 357.4 373.3 399.4 394.5 370.9 386.9 430.6 483.6 546.6 555.7 552.9 534.1 572.9 526.5 523.4 534.7 580.9 583.7 Discrepancy (sources less uses) 56.5 95.7 111.4 82.9 -11.4 45.6 -89.8 -2.9 -7.0 -19.6 28.4 -6.8 24.8 -74.4 21.7 -89.6 -35.1 24.8 234.6 382.9 233.5 115.3 129.8 167.5 357.3 278.1 342.4 417.7 173.5 382.7 308.7 504.6 450.0 393.5 518.2 309.1 :t Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and access rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER CREDIT [Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted) Total 1987: 19881989: 19901991: 1992: 1993: 1994: 19951996: 1996: Dec . Dec3 Dec Dec Dec . Dec Dec Dec Dee Dec .. . Mar May .... June July Aug Sept Oct . Nov Dec 1997: Jan Peb . MarP .... 671.7 729.9 781.9 796.4 781.1 784.9 844.1 966.5 1,103.3 1,193.2 1,133.3 1,141.8 1,148.3 1,155.1 1,168.7 1,176.8 1,177.6 1,185.3 1,190.2 1,193.2 1,203.5 1,210.2 1,212.2 Automobile Revolving 266.1 285.5 291.0 282.4 259.3 257.1 279.8 317.2 350.8 375.2 358.6 361.2 362.3 367.7 373.2 372.8 373.4 375.2 374.6 375.2 376.1 376.4 375.3 1 For year-end data, change from preceding year-eml; for monthly data, change from preceding month. 2 Outstanding loans far mobile homes, education, boats, trailers, vacations, etc., plus noniristanment credit. Net change in consumer credit outstanding l Consumer credit outstanding (end of period) Period 153.3 174.5 198.6 223.3 245.8 257.8 287.0 339.3 413.9 467.9 431.3 437.9 443.5 445.4 451.1 454.4 454.0 458.4 464.3 467.9 476.3 481.3 482.8 Other * 252.4 269.9 292.3 290.7 276.1 269.9 277.3 309.9 338.6 350.2 343.4 342.8 345.2 341.9 344.5 349.6 350.2 351.7 351.3 350.2 351.0 352.5 354.1 Total 32.8 58.2 (4) 14.5 -15.3 3.8 59.2 122.4 136.8 89.9 11.2 8.5 6.5 6.8 13.6 8.1 .8 7.7 4.9 3.0 10.3 6.7 2.0 Automobile 18.9 19.4 (4) -8.6 23 1 -2.2 22.7 37.4 33.6 24.4 2.8 2.6 1.1 5.4 5.5 -.4 .6 1.8 -.6 .6 .9 .3 -1.1 Revolving 17.3 21.2 (4) 24.7 22.5 12.0 29.2 52.3 74.6 54.0 5.6 6.6 5.6 1.9 5.7 3.3 4 4.4 5.9 3.6 8.4 5.0 1.5 Other2 -3.3 17.5 (4) -1.6 -14.6 -6.2 7.4 32.6 28.7 11.6 2.8 6 -.3 -.6 2.6 5.1 .6 1.5 -.4 11 .8 1.5 1.6 "'Data newly available in January 1989 result in breaks in many series between December 1988 and subsequent months. 4 Becaii.se of breaks in series, net change not available. Source: lioard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rotes fell in May. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM — 14 r — '— -~\ \^_ — — — — - U CORPORATE Aaa BONDS (MOODY'S) x-^'\ *---^ "^~^ r"— x / ../ \ x^ N J \^/- q j -./ r I ~ •% V \ * •* \ •s /"""M ^ TREASURY BILLS / J ^ •L 1 /r"^ ~T\ DISC OUNT R/ME RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK I I I I I I I I I t I I I I I l I I I II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i IM,,,| 1990 1989 1991 1992 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 |f 1997 EMM 1994 1993 1996 1995 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW [Percent per annum] U.S. Treasury security yields Period 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 . 1996: May June July Aug .... Sept Get Nov Dec 1997- Jan Peb Mar Apr May 3-month bills (new issues) ' Constant maturities 2 3-year 10-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor's) '•< Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) Prime commercial paper, 6 months ' 5.82 6.69 8.12 7.51 5.42 3.45 3.02 4,29 5.51 5.02 5.02 5.11 5.17 5.09 5.15 5.01 5.03 4.87 5.05 5.00 5.14 5.17 5.13 7.68 8.26 8.55 8.26 6.82 5.30 4.44 6.27 6.25 5.99 6.27 6.49 6.45 6.21 6.41 6.08 5.82 5.91 6.16 6.03 6.38 6.61 6.42 8.39 8.85 8.49 8.55 7.86 7.01 5.87 7.09 6.57 6.44 6.74 6.91 6.87 6.64 6.83 6.53 6.20 6.30 6.58 6.42 6.69 6.89 6.71 7.73 7.76 7.24 7.25 6.89 6.41 5.63 6.19 5.95 5.75 5.98 6.03 5.91 5.72 5.86 5.71 5.59 5.62 5.72 5.63 5.78 5.88 5.71 9.38 9.71 9.26 9.32 8.77 8.14 7.22 7.97 7.59 7.37 7.62 7.71 7.65 7.46 7.66 7.39 7.10 7.20 7.42 7.31 7.55 7.73 7.58 6.85 7.68 8.80 7.95 5.85 3.80 3.30 4.93 5.93 5.42 5.42 5.57 5.67 5.51 5.66 5.45 5.40 5.44 5.48 5.42 5.60 5.79 5.78 5.22 5.14 5.08 5.17 5.03 6.48 6.44 6.40 6.41 6.44 6.76 6.70 6.68 6.73 6.75 5.82 5.77 5.70 5.65 5.70 7.64 7.56 7.55 7.60 7.64 5.81 5.79 5.78 5.77 5.75 Discount rate (N.Y. P.R. Bank) 4 Prime rate charged by banks4 5.66 6.20 6.93 6.98 5.45 3.25 3.00 3.60 5.21 5.02 8.21 9.32 10.87 10.01 8.46 6.25 6.00 7.15 8.83 8.27 5.00-5.00 5.00-5.00 5.00-5.00 5.00-5.00 5.00-5.00 5.00-5.00 5.00-5.00 5.00-5.00 8.25-8.25 8.25-8.25 8.25-8.25 8.25-8.25 8.25-8.25 8.25-8.25 8.25-8.25 8.25-8.25 5.00-5.00 5.00-5.00 5.00-5.00 5.00-5.00 5.00-5.00 8.25-8.25 8.25-8.25 8.25-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 5.00-5.00 5.00-5.00 5.00-5.00 5.00-5.00 5.00-5.00 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 New-home mortgage yields (FHPB) •' 9.31 9.19 10.13 10.05 9.32 8.24 7.20 7.49 7.87 7.80 7.80 8.05 8.01 8.08 7.98 7.95 7.80 7.79 7.81 7.78 7.88 8.03 Week ended: 1997: May 3 .... 10 17 24 31 1 Bank-discount basis. Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. •'Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rat*1 for month and week. 2 30 5 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, FederaJ Housing Finance Board, Moody's-Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices rose in May. INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965=50 (RATIO SCALE) / /"V f^ / ^/*^ ^ jT,J INDEX, DEC. 31,1965=50 (RATIO SCALE) 440 / r-~~s^-^S y 140 I! S^ 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 A h^ M i l l r V ~N—"/~~^1/ ^•~—-—^ \ a3MPOSITE STOC K PRICE ' 240 OOft NDEX (NYSE 160 11111 MM! INI! M | | 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 19-91 1990 1989 ^ r s' i IIiI 1994 1 t I 1 1 I ! 1 i 1 1 HIM 1993 1992 M 1 1 1 it 1 M 1 j 1 1 M M i l l M i l ! 19196 1995 i M i i 140 1997 PER :ENT 20 PERCE NT 20 15 15 EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMC)N STOCKS (S&P) 10 -\ ~~~" 5 0 ! 1 1989 1 ! 1 ~~1 | 10 •—' ! 1 1 1 1991 1990 1 1 I 1992 1 i ! 1993 5 i I 1994 i i i 1995 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION ! 1 1 1996 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1996: May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1997: Jan . Feb Mar . May Week ended: 1997: May 3 ... 10 17 24 ... 31 1 Average 2 Includes :J Industrial Transportation Utility 3 Finance Dow-Jones industrial average4 Standard & Poor's composite index (194143 = 10)5 Dividendprice ratio 161.70 149.91 180.02 183.46 206.33 229.01 249.58 254.12 291.15 358.17 195.31 180.95 216.23 225.78 258.14 284.62 299.99 315.25 367.34 453.98 140.39 134.12 175.28 158.62 173.99 201.09 242.49 247.29 269.41 327.33 148.59 143.53 174.87 181.20 185.32 198.91 228.90 209.06 220.30 249.77 146.48 127.26 151.88 133.26 150.82 179.26 216.42 209.73 238.45 303.89 2,275,99 2,060.82 2,508.91 2,678.94 2,929.33 3,284.29 3,522.06 3,793.77 4,493.76 5,742.89 286.83 265.79 322.84 334.59 376.18 415.74 451.41 460.33 541.64 670.83 354.84 358.32 345.52 354.59 360.96 373.54 388.75 391.61 452.63 458.30 438.58 449.41 459.69 473.98 490.60 494.38 334.66 331.57 316.66 321.61 323.12 332.93 348.32 352.28 249.73 247.20 245.31 244.74 242.25 249.61 258.85 257.09 290.43 294.42 287.89 302.95 308.16 324.42 345.30 350.01 5,616.71 5,671.51 5,496.26 5,685.50 5,804.01 5,996.21 6,318.36 6,435.87 661.23 668.50 644.07 662.68 674.88 701.46 735.67 743.25 403.58 418.57 416.72 401.00 433.36 509.64 524.30 523.08 506.69 549.65 359.40 364.15 372.87 366.67 395.50 263.91 271.36 264.78 253.18 268.18 361.45 388.75 387.21 364.25 392.32 6,707.03 6,917.48 6,901.12 6,657.50 7,242.36 766.22 798.39 792.16 763.93 833.09 3.08 3.64 3.45 3.61 3.24 2.99 2.78 2.82 2.56 2.19 2.21 2.21 2.28 2.22 2.20 2.11 2.01 2.01 1.95 1.89 1.91 1.98 1.85 414.59 428.66 435.05 436.50 440.24 523.31 542.12 551.86 554.73 560.23 379.75 390.64 395.14 400.45 402.50 260.13 267.73 268.42 267.83 271.65 379.11 390.33 394.40 393.78 394.21 6,960.34 7,166.32 7,276.27 7,285.41 7,350.46 795.97 823.73 835.69 839.39 847.32 1.91 1.88 1.84 1.83 1.83 of dailv closing prices. all the stocks (more than 2,000 in 1992) listed on the NYSE. Dec. 31, 1965=100. Effective April 27, 1993 the NYSE doubled the value of the utility index to facilitate trading of options and futures on the index. A!! indexes shown here reflect the4 doubling;. Includes 30 stocks. 5 Includes 500 stocks. 0 Common stock yields (percent) 6 New York Stock Exchange indexes (Dee. 31, 1965 except as noted) a Composite I i 1997 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Common stock prices l Period i Earningsprice ratio 5.48 8.01 7.42 6.47 4.79 4.22 4.46 5.83 6.09 5.24 5.21 5.24 5.23 6 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. XOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS. OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first 7 months of fiscal 1997, there was a deficit of $16.9 billion, compared with a deficit of $55.3 billion a year earlier. BILLIOf •JS OF DOLLARS 1/00 RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS -^ 1,600 BILUONS OF CXDLLARS 1,700 __ . 1,600 __---" 1,500 1,500 1,400 1,400 1,300 1,300 ** ~~ ^ 1,200 1,200 ---'' 1,100 ^-^r^ 1,100 1,000 1,000 900 900 800 800 700 A \ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 N 700 N V SURPLUS OR DEFICIT ( 0 1-^ 0 -100 -100 ^—^" ' -~-_^ -200 ^ -300 -400 A 1 V 1988 ^~ 1 1989 —-—_-—-—^ 1 1990 1 1991 1 1992 -300 1 1993 1 1994 1 1995 ^ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET 1 1996 N 1997 ^ -400 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Fiscal year or period 1978 1979 . 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 . 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 . 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 (estimates) Cumulative total, first 7 months: ' Fiscal year 1996 ... Fiscal year 1997 ... Receipts Outlays 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 734.2 769.3 854.4 909.3 991.2 1,032.0 1,055.0 1,091.3 1,154.4 1,258.6 1,351.8 1,453.1 1,505.4 458.7 504.0 590.9 678.2 745.8 808.4 851.9 946.5 990.5 1,004.2 1,064.5 1,143.7 1,253.2 1,324.4 1,381.7 1,409.4 1,461.7 1,515.7 1,560.3 1,631.0 849.1 923.7 904.4 940.6 Surplus or deficit <-) Surplus or deficit ('-) Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) -59.2 -40.7 -73.8 -79.0 -128.0 -207.8 -185.4 -212.3 -221.2 -149.8 -155.2 -152.5 -221.2 -269,4 -290.4 -255.0 -203.1 -163.9 -107.3 -125.6 314.2 365.3 403.9 469.1 474.3 453.2 500.4 548.0 569.0 641.0 667.8 727.5 750.3 761.2 788.9 842.5 923.6 1,000.8 1,085.6 1,116.5 369.1 404.1 476.6 543.1 594.4 661.3 686.1 769.7 807.0 810.3 861.8 932.8 1,028.1 1,082.7 1,129.3 1,142.8 1,182.4 1,227.1 1,259.9 1,316.0 -54.9 -38.7 -72.7 -74.0 -120.1 -208.0 185 7 221 7 -238.0 -169.3 -194.0 -205.2 -277.8 321 6 -340.5 -300.4 -258.8 -226.3 -174.3 -199.5 85.4 98.0 113.2 130.2 143.5 147.3 166.1 186.2 200.2 213.4 241.5 263.7 281.7 293.9 302.4 311.9 335.0 351.1 367.5 388.9 89.7 100.0 114.3 135.2 151.4 147.1 165.8 176.8 183.5 193.8 202.7 210.9 225.1 241.7 252.3 266.6 279.4 288.7 300.5 315.0 -4.3 -2.0 -1.1 -5.0 -7.9 .2 .3 -55.3 -16.9 635.7 698.6 733.0 763.8 -97.3 -65.3 213.4 225.1 171.4 176.8 1 Data from Monthly Treasury Statement. \OTE.~-Data {except as rioted) are from Bwtyet of the- United States Government, fiscal Yet 1998, issued February 6; 1997. 32 Federal debt (end of period) Off-budget On-budget Total Receipts Outlays Gross Federal Held by the public 9.4 16.7 19.6 38.8 52.8 56.6 52.2 50.1 45.3 55.7 62.4 67.0 73.9 776.6 829.5 909.1 994.8 1,137.3 1,371.7 1,564.7 1,817.5 2,120.6 2,346.1 2,601.3 2,868.0 3,206.6 3,598.5 4,002.1 4,351.4 4,643.7 4,921.0 5,181.9 5,453.7 607.1 640.3 709.8 785.3 919.8 1,131.6 1,300.5 1,499.9 1,736.7 1,888.7 2,050.8 2,189.9 2,410.7 2,688.1 2,998.8 3,247.5 3,432.1 3,603.4 3,733.0 3,875.8 42.0 48.4 5,059.3 5,311.6 3,681.7 3,790.7 Sources; Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 7 months of fiscal 1997, receipts were $74.6 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $36.2 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS /oo BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 700 RECEIPTS'17 500 "_ — 400 ~" — 500 \ 400 SOCIAL INSURANCE lAXbb AND CON IRIBUI IONS CORPORATION INCOME TAXES 30 ° \ i 0 i i \ i i ! OTHER RECEIPTS ] { ™ ( I,4UU 1,400 OUTLAYS ^ 1,300 _-- " ~~ 1,100 ^.--^ ^f** — — """" •"""" 600 500 300 200 x| V 1 1988 1 1989 1 1990 1 1991 1 1992 f INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET !! 1993 1 1994 1995 300 l\ 200 1 1997 ^ 1996 FISCAL YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars) On-budgt,*t and off-budfjet outlays On-budget and off-budget receipts Individ- Fiscal year or period Total 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 „. 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 (estimates) Cumulative total, first 7 months: ' Fiscal year 1996 Fiscal year 1997 1 ual income taxes Corporation income taxes Social insurance taxes National defense Other Total and contributions Total Department of Defense, military Internation- al affairs Health Medicare Social Income security security Net inter- Other est 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 181.0 217.8 244.1 285.9 297.7 288.9 298.4 60.0 65.7 64.6 61.1 49.2 37.0 56.9 121.0 138.9 157.8 182.7 201.5 209.0 239.4 37.7 40.8 50.6 69.5 69.3 65.6 71.8 458.7 504.0 590.9 678.2 745.8 808.4 851.9 104.5 116.3 134.0 157.5 185.3 209.9 227.4 102.3 113.6 130.9 153.9 180.7 204.4 220.9 7.5 7.5 12.7 13.1 12.3 11.8 15.9 18.5 20.5 23.2 26.9 27.4 28.6 30.4 22.8 26.5 32.1 39.1 46.6 52.6 57.5 61.5 66.4 86.6 99.7 107.7 122.6 112.7 93.9 104.1 118.5 139.6 156.0 170.7 178.2 35.5 42.6 52.5 68.8 85.0 89.8 111.1 114.7 120.2 131.3 133.5 125.4 122.2 118.6 734.2 769.3 854.4 909.3 991.2 1,032.0 1,055.0 1,091.3 1,154.4 1,258.6 1,351.8 1,453.1 1,505.4 334.5 349.0 392.6 401.2 445.7 466.9 467.8 476.0 509.7 543.1 590.2 656.4 672.7 61.3 63.1 83.9 94.5 103.3 93.5 98.1 100.3 117.5 140.4 157.0 171.8 176.2 265.2 283.9 303.3 334.3 359.4 380.0 396.0 413.7 428.3 461.5 484.5 509.4 535.8 73.1 73.3 74.6 79.3 82.8 91.5 93.1 101.4 98.9 113.7 120.1 115.4 120.8 946.5 990.5 1,004.2 1,064.5 1,143.7 1,253.2 1,324.4 1,381.7 1,409.4 1,461.7 1,515.7 1,560.3 1,631.0 252.7 273.4 282.0 290.4 303.6 299.3 273.3 298.4 291.1 281.6 272.1 265.7 267.2 245.2 265.5 274.0 281.9 294.9 289.8 262.4 286.9 278.6 268.6 259.4 253.2 254.3 16.2 14.2 11.6 10.5 9.6 13.8 15.9 16.1 17.2 17.1 16.4 13.5 14.8 33.5 35.9 40.0 44.5 48.4 57.7 71.2 89.5 99.4 107.1 115.4 119.4 127.6 65.8 70.2 75.1 78.9 85.0 98.1 104.5 119.0 130.6 144.7 159.9 174.2 194.3 128.2 119.8 123.3 129.4 136.1 147.1 170.3 197.0 207.3 214.1 220.5 226.0 238.9 188.6 198.8 207.4 219.3 232.5 248.6 269.0 287.6 304.6 319.6 335.8 349.7 367.7 129.5 136.0 138.7 151.8 169.3 184.2 194.5 199.4 198.8 203.0 232.2 241.1 247.4 131.9 142.3 126.1 139.7 159.3 204.3 225.7 174.7 160.4 174.5 163.4 170.7 173.2 849.1 923.7 401.1 454.7 89.1 95.3 291.6 306.2 67.3 67.5 904.4 940.6 151.4 155.0 144.2 147.9 9.2 11.3 67.5 71.8 99.0 109.3 140.7 145.4 200.2 209.2 140.8 143.6 95.5 94.9 Data from Monthly Treasury Statement. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. NOTE.—Data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1998, issued February 6, 1997. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the first quarter of 1997, according to preliminary estimates, Federal receipts rose $34.6 billion (annual rate) and Federal current expenditures rose $10.6 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,800 1,800 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES __ „ 1,600 1,600 ^ --^ - /— ^ / 1,400 1,400 CURRENT EXPENDITURf S \ 1,200 / ^ - - ' ^ •/ „ —/^" . ^^~~ _ ff 1,000 *s / 1,200 ^ -" 1,000 " "*" .,-~ J -- — *" 800 s -" —.1 S~* _-•" ^ - RECEIPT 5 800 r^ 600 600 400 400 200 200 - CURRESIT SURPLl SORDE =IOT(-) 0 -200 ~V.-~—*-^** •-—_^.-\ -400 I < ) I t I 1982 1983 -~—/"• y —- ^ .~\. „ ^ ^•—^- f/i 1 1i ) I i j\\ I l i 1 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 ] > ! i 1 ^-—'- ^ 1 J \ 1990 1991 ! i ) 1992 .x~^ i i ) ! 1993 1994 1 1 1 ! i 1995 ! 1 ! 1996 i i -400 1997 CALEND ^R YEARS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data, at seasonally adjusted annual rates} Feder.il Government current expenditures Federal Government receipts Period Calendar vear: 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1993: I II in IV 1994: I II III IV 1995: I II Ill TV 1996- I II III IV 1997: I' Total 1,129.8 1,149.0 1,198.5 1,275.3 1,377.0 1,478.4 1 575 0 1,225.2 1,271.3 1,280.3 1,324.4 1,321.9 1,382.8 1,387.1 1,416.3 J ,449.3 1,483.2 1,486.6 1,494.7 1 523 1 1,575.6 1,581.9 1,619.3 1.653.9 Personal tax and nontax receipts 485.7 476.9 490.8 523.6 561.4 614.9 673.1 501.0 521.0 529.1 543.4 539.3 571.3 560.4 574.5 594.6 624.4 817.3 623.3 639.6 681.4 680.2 691.1 719.2 tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Contributions for social insurance 118.0 109.8 118.6 137.5 164,4 184.3 196.2 127.5 136.5 133.7 152.2 144.3 102.2 171.3 180.0 183.1 180.7 189.1 184.3 196.4 199.0 196.5 192.8 206.9 65.1 79.7 81.9 88.2 92.6 91.2 90.5 84.3 87.5 87.2 93.7 92.8 91.3 93.3 93.2 91.7 93.5 88.4 91.3 84.4 83.2 85.7 108.7 86.2 461.1 482.6 507.1 526.0 558.6 588.0 615.2 512.4 526.2 530.3 535.1 545.5 558.1 562.1 568.6 579.9 584.6 591.8 595.9 602.6 612.0 619.4 626.7 641.6 Corporate profits Sowce: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 34 Total 1,284.5 1,345.0 1,479.4 1,530.9 1,567.3 1,640.1 1,702.1 1,509.7 1,521.5 1,534.7 1,557.7 1,534.6 1,552.5 1,575.7 1,606.4 I,fi2i.9 1,644.3 1,645.0 1,649.3 1,678.3 1,702.3 1.702.6 1,725.2 1.735.8 Consumption expenditures Transfer Payments 426.6 445.9 451.0 451.9 450.7 453.8 459.0 451.3 448.5 453.5 454.3 446.7 445.1 455.7 455.3 454.6 455.6 453.6 451.4 453.6 463.5 461.3 457.7 462.8 513.3 522.2 625.1 659.1 682.9 719.9 764.2 645.9 654.7 660.8 675.0 670.9 676.4 683.5 700.9 708.3 716.2 724.2 730.9 756.2 757.9 762.9 779.8 786.7 Grantsin-aid to Net State interest and paid local governments 132.4 153.4 172.2 185.7 195.9 206.1 214.6 177.3 181.5 187.2 197.0 192.2 197.5 196.9 196.9 205.8 211.3 203.8 203.3 207.6 219.3 214.5 216.8 219.4 179.9 192.7 195.8 192.3 201.4 229.1 233.4 190.5 193.2 192.7 192.8 188.3 198.3 204.3 214.8 220.9 229.3 232.3 233.9 230.5 230.8 233.7 238.8 235.2 Current Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Less: Wage accruals less disbursements 32.4 30.8 35.1 41.8 36.4 31.3 30.9 44.7 43.6 40.5 38.6 36.5 35.3 35.2 38.5 32.3 32.0 31.1 29.9 30.4 30.8 30.3 32.0 31.5 0.1 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 surplus or deficit (->, national income and product accounts -154.7 - 196.0 - 280.9 -255.6 -190.2 -161.7 -127.1 -284.5 - 250.2 - 254.4 -233.3 -212.7 -169.6 -188.5 -190,1 -172.6 -161.1 - 158.5 -154.5 - 1 55.2 -126.7 - 120.8 -105.9 -81.8 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Consumer prices (1982-84=100; NBA) Industrial production (1992=100; seasonally adjusted) Period United States Canada 93.1 97.3 99.0 98.9 96.9 100.0 103.4 108.6 112.1 115.2 113.2 114.3 114.8 115.5 115.5 115.8 116.0 116.2 117.2 117.7 117.8 '118.4 '119.0 119.0 101.6 86.4 93.0 106.9 94.5 97.3 106.8 99.9 100.9 103.2 104.2 102.4 98.9 106.1 101.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 104.5 96.2 95.8 111.8 99.8 97.0 115.6 100.2 101.4 117.6 102.9 102.1 '115.6 98.1 101.9 '116.2 101.2 101.3 '116.3 103.5 102.1 '116.8 99.3 101.5 118.6 103.7 103.6 118.7 103.6 101.5 118.9 102.8 102.1 119.0 106.8 102.0 '120.2 104.9 102.0 '118.7 105.4 '103.0 '120.1 110.9 '101.8 '120.3 '107.3 ' 103.6 119.8 '106.4 102.9 106.0 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 ... . 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1996: Mar Apr May July Sept Oct Nov Dec 1997- Jan Feb Mar . . Apr' 1 Japan France United Kingdom Germany Italy 86.4 89.8 94.0 98.9 101.7 100.0 92.5 95.3 96.5 96.5 '95.8 '95.6 96.3 '96.7 '97.5 97.4 96.7 '96.4 97.5 'SI. 5 '98.6 '98.9 98.8 92.4 97.9 100.9 101.1 100.2 100.0 97.6 102.6 108.2 106.4 108.4 104.8 105.9 108.3 105.0 106.9 106.0 105.2 105.7 103.7 104.0 '107.1 107.8 Data relate to all urban consumers. United States' 97.4 102.1 104.3 104.0 100.1 100.0 102.2 107.3 110.1 111.4 111.4 110.6 111.9 110.9 111.7 111.3 111.7 111.6 112.3 112.9 '112.9 '112.1 112.1 Canada 113.6 118.3 124.0 130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 155.7 156.3 156.6 156.7 157.0 157.3 157.8 158.3 158.6 158.6 159.1 159.6 160.0 160.2 118.4 123.2 129.3 135.5 143.1 145.2 147.9 148.2 151.4 153.7 153.0 153.4 153.9 153.7 153.7 153.9 154.1 154.4 155.1 155.1 155.4 155.7 156.0 156.0 Japan 104.8 105.6 108.1 111.4 115.0 116.9 118.4 119.3 119.1 119.3 118.8 119.5 119.7 119.4 119.3 119.1 119.6 119.9 119.5 119.6 119.5 119.3 119.4 France 120.9 124.2 128.6 133.0 137.2 140.6 143.5 145.9 148.4 151.5 151.3 151.6 151.9 151.7 151.5 151.1 151.6 152.0 151.9 152.1 152.5 152.8 152.9 152.9 Germany Italy 104.9 106.3 109.2 112.2 116.2 120.9 125.2 128.6 130.8 132.6 132.2 132.3 132.6 132.8 133.2 133.1 133.0 133.0 132.9 133.2 133.9 134.4 134.3 134.0 134.4 141.1 150.4 159.5 169.8 178.8 186.3 193.6 204.0 212.0 210.2 211.4 212.2 212.7 212.2 212.4 213.1 213.3 213.9 214.1 214.5 214.7 214.9 215.1 United Kingdom 119.7 125.6 135.4 148.2 156.9 162.7 165.3 169.3 175.2 179.4 178.0 179.3 179.6 179.8 179.1 179.9 180.7 180.7 180.8 181.4 181.4 182.1 182.6 183.6 Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and International Trade Administration, Office of Trade and Economic Analysis). U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES [Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally acftusted] Services (BOP basis) Goods: Imports (customs value) Goods: Exports (f.a.s. value) Census basis (by end-use category) J Balance of trade (expo s minus impo s) Census basis {by end-use category) BOP basis Period BOP basis InFoods, dustrial Total, feeds, supand Census plies bevbasis3 erages and materials AutomoCapital tive goods vehiexcept cles, auto- parts moand entive gines Consumer goods (nonfood) ex- BOP basis Total, Census basis2 automotive InCapdusital Foods, trial feeds, sup- goods except and plies autobevand erages mate- motive rials Auto- Conmo- sumer tive goods vehi- (noncles, food) parts except and automoengines tive Exports Imports Goods, Census basis Goods Services Goods and services 250.2 320.2 362.1 389.3 416.9 440.4 456.8 502.5 575.9 611.5 254.1 322.4 363.8 393.6 421.7 448.2 465.1 512.6 584.7 624.5 24.3 32.3 37.2 35.1 35.7 40.3 40.6 41.9 50.5 55.5 66.7 85.1 99.3 104.4 109.7 109.1 111.8 121.4 146.3 147.4 86.2 109.2 138.8 152.7 166.7 175.9 181.7 205.2 233.0 252.6 24.6 29.3 34.8 37.4 40.0 47.0 52.4 57.6 61.8 64.2 17.7 23.1 36.4 43.3 45.9 51.4 54.7 60.0 64.4 70.2 409.8 447.2 477.4 498.3 491.0 536.5 589.4 668.6 749.4 799.3 406.2 441.0 473.2 495.3 488.5 532.7 580.7 663.3 743.4 791.3 24.8 24.8 25.1 26.6 26.5 27.6 27.9 31.0 33.2 35.7 111.0 118.3 132.3 143.2 131.6 138.6 145.6 162.0 180.7 199.3 84.5 101.4 113.3 116.4 120.7 134.3 152.4 184.4 221.4 229.0 85.2 87.7 86.1 87.3 85.7 91.8 102.4 118.3 124.8 130.1 88.7 95.9 102.9 105.7 108.0 122.7 134.0 146.3 160.0 171.1 98.3 110.9 127.0 147.5 163.8 177.3 186.1 195.8 210.6 223.9 91.7 99.5 103.5 118.8 119.6 119.5 125.5 134.1 142.2 150.4 -152.1 -118.5 -109.4 -101.7 -66.7 -84.5 -115.6 -150.6 — 158.7 -166.8 -159.6 -127.0 -115.2 -109.0 -74.1 -96.1 -132.6 -166.1 -173.4 -187.8 6.6 11.4 23.5 28.7 44.2 57.8 60.6 61.7 68.4 73.5 -152.9 -115.5 -91.8 - 80.3 -29.9 -38.3 -72.0 -104.4 - 105.1 -114.3 1996: Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Get Nov Dec 50.5 50.7 51.4 51.0 48.8 51.1 50.3 52.9 53.3 51.9 51.4 51.6 52.5 51.9 50.2 52.5 51.6 54.0 54.6 53.2 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.4 4.5 5.0 4.4 12.6 12.8 12.5 12.3 11.5 12.2 12.1 12.8 12.2 12.5 20.8 21.1 21.1 20.7 19.9 21.0 20.1 22.4 22.3 22.0 4.9 4.9 5.4 5.5 5.2 5.4 6.1 5.2 5.8 5.3 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.5 5.8 5.9 6.2 6.1 6.0 65.1 66.5 68.3 65.7 66.4 67.7 68.0 67.1 67.7 68.8 63.9 64.8 67.1 64.9 66.0 66.9 67.6 66.8 67.4 68.6 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.2 15.4 16.6 17.1 16.4 17.0 16.9 17.5 17.6 1S.9 17.6 19.6 18.9 19.0 18.7 18.7 18.8 18.9 18.7 19.1 19.6 10.0 10.5 11.5 10.8 11.1 11.6 11.2 10.3 11.3 10.6 13.7 13.6 14.3 13.9 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.0 14.8 15.3 18.8 18.4 18.7 18.7 18.5 18.6 18.5 18.9 19.3 19.3 12.3 12.3 12.6 12.5 12.8 12.7 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.9 - 12.5 -13.2 -14.5 -13.0 -15.7 -14.4 -16.0 -12.8 -12.8 -15.3 -14.6 - 15.7 -16.9 -14.7 -17.6 -16.5 -17.6 -14.2 -14.4 -16.9 6.6 6.1 6.1 6.2 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.4 6.4 -8.0 -9.7 -10.8 -8.5 - 12.0 - 10.6 -11.6 -8.1 -8.0 - 10.5 1997: Jan Fob' Mar" .... 51.4 54.1 56.6 52.2 54.7 57.6 4.3 4.3 4.2 12.2 12.8 13.7 21.4 22.7 24.4 5.7 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.3 6.4 70.0 71.1 71.7 69.7 70.6 70.2 3.1 3.1 3.3 17.9 17.7 17.8 19.6 19.9 20.5 12.0 12.3 11.1 15.0 15.2 15.1 19.3 19.4 19.9 13.0 12.9 13.3 -17.6 -15.9 -!2.6 -18.6 -17.0 -15.1 6.3 6.5 6.6 - 12.3 -10.5 -8.5 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 'Includes undocumented exports to Canada through 1988. Total includes "other" exports or imports, not shown separately. 2 N'OTK.—HOP refers to balance of payments on international transactions basis. BOP data shown here are consistent with figures shown on pp. 36 and 37. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis). 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the fourth quarter of 1996, the goods deficit fell to $45.3 billion, from $51.9 billion in the third quarter. The current account deficit fell to $41.4 billion, from $47.9 billion in the third quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * -45 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS « - -50 -50 -55 -55 1986 * SEASONAUY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted. Credits ( + ), debits ( — ) ] Investment income Services Goods' Net Period Exports 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996? . 1994: I II in IV 1995: I II Ill IV 1996: I II Ill IV Imports Net balance Net military transactions '** 3 250,208 320,230 362,120 389,307 416,913 440,352 456,832 502,463 575,940 611,669 -409,765 -447,189 -477,365 — 498,337 -490,981 -536,458 -589,441 -668,584 -749,364 — 799.343 -159,557 — 126,959 -115,245 — 109,030 -74,068 -96,106 -132,609 -166,121 -173,424 — 187,674 -3,844 -6,320 -6,749 — 7,599 -5,274 - 1,448 118,462 122,909 127,237 133,855 -155,301 -163,993 -171,652 -177,638 -36,839 -41,084 -44,415 -43,783 -38 367 138,551 142,983 144,984 149,422 - 183,474 -190,910 - 187,532 - 187,448 -44,923 -47,927 -42,548 -38,026 150,032 153,120 150,144 158,373 -193,159 -200,490 -202,013 -203,681 -43,127 -47,370 -51,869 -45,308 880 1,963 3,585 2,809 1,171 463 628 859 1,120 978 489 725 515 1,080 travel and transportation receipts Other services, net Receipts on U.S. assets abroad Payments on foreign assets in U.S. Net Balance on goods, Unilateral services, transfers, and net 4 income Balance on current account -23,939 — 26,266 -27,696 — 35,219 4,510 -35,514 -37,640 -39,866 -35,075 — 42,472 - 167,392 -128,436 -105,575 — 94,657 -9,518 - 62,583 -99,936 - 148,405 -148,154 -165,095 1,163 -636 -1,589 -3,094 -8,169 -21,539 -9,507 -26,518 -9,975 -30,036 -30,440 -12,215 -29,708 -36,025 -40,011 -42,655 -45,000 -47,641 -49,630 -48,403 -900 -862 -4,361 -1,890 -30,415 -32,686 -28,696 -21,281 -8,639 -8,290 - 8,992 -9,154 -39,054 -40,976 - 37,688 -30,435 -47,238 - 50,277 -52,794 -55,008 -2,215 -4,098 -2,414 -24,319 -10,955 -9,420 -31,173 -38,377 - 9,476 -28,759 -12,621 -35,274 -40,593 -47,853 -41,380 -7,613 -2,591 4,043 8,002 17,032 20,484 20,026 16,711 18,361 21,094 18,097 20,352 26,192 28,291 32!440 38,805 39,665 43,068 46,415 49,564 -152,918 — 115,518 -91,758 — 80,336 -29,872 -38,264 -72,039 - 104,379 - 105,064 — 114,207 100,767 129,070 152,517 160,300 137,003 119,046 119,900 141,704 182,659 196,902 -91,302 -115,722 -138,639 -139,402 -121,159 -107,851 -110,158 -145,863 -190,674 -205,318 9,465 13,348 13,878 20,897 15,844 11,195 9,742 -4,159 -8,016 -8,416 4,016 4.221 3,758 4,717 10,159 10,614 11,039 11,257 -22,702 -25,882 -28,447 -27,346 31,841 33,287 37,212 39,368 -30,678 -33,923 -38,801 -42,462 3,770 3,834 5,087 5,670 11.010 11,410 12,006 11,987 -29,515 -31,824 -24,335 -19,391 44,100 46,779 45,269 46,513 5,358 5,346 4,956 5,430 12,650 12,341 12,119 12,453 -24,630 -28,958 -34,279 -26,345 47,549 48,062 48,696 52,594 'Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage; exdudes military, 2 Transfers under U.S. military agency sales contracts (exports) minus direet defense expenditures (imports), 36 Balance on goods and services 311 - 143,4S3 — 102,170 -77,880 — 59,439 - 14,028 -27,069 -62,297 - 108,539 -113,079 — 122,623 •s Quarterly data are not .seasonally adjusted. 4 Includes transfers of floods and serviees under U.S. military fjrant programs. See p. 37 for (Continuation of table. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, U.S. claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $56.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 1996, following an increase of $33.2 billion in the third quarter. U.S. liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, increased $33.2 billion in the fourth quarter, following a decrease of $1.2 billion in the third quarter. BILUONS OF DOLLARS * BILUONS OF DOLLARS • COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Foreign assets in the U.S., net [increase/capital inflow ( + )] U.S. assets abroad, net [increase/eapit )] Period Total 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996^ 1994- I II Ill rv 1995- I II Ill rv 1996- I II Ill WP U.S. official reserve assets 3 r> 9,149 -72,617 - 100,087 -3,912 - 168,744 -25,293 -74,011 -2,158 -57,881 5,763 -68,622 3,901 -194,609 -1,379 5,346 -150,695 -307,856 -9,742 6,668 -306,830 -36,897 59 3,537 -28,627 -25,569 -165 2,033 -59,603 -61,747 -5,318 -108,299 -2,722 -39,595 -1,893 -98,214 191 -68,723 17 -50,699 -523 -73,313 7,489 -114,095 -315 Other U.S. Government assets 1,006 2,967 1,259 2,307 2,911 -1,657 -342 -341 -280 -665 399 491 -288 -943 154 -179 252 -199 -152 353 166 -326 U.S. private assets -82,771 -99,141 -144,710 -74,160 — 66 555 -70,866 -192,889 -155,700 -297,834 -312,833 -37,237 -32,655 -25,116 -60,693 -56,275 -105,398 -37,954 - 98,206 -68,588 49 823 -80,968 -113,454 Total 242,983 240,265 218,490 122,192 94,241 154,285 250,996 285,376 424,462 525,046 83,235 45,889 83,619 72,632 90,995 115,421 118,816 99,229 99,475 100,553 142,970 182,048 5 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), foreign currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the IMF. Foreign official assets :i Other foreign assets 45,387 39,758 8,503 33,910 17,389 40,477 72,153 40,253 109,757 122,778 11,036 9,166 19,785 266 21,822 37,380 39,186 11,369 52,021 13,566 24,235 32,956 197,596 200,507 209,987 88,282 76,853 113,808 178,843 245,123 314,705 402,268 72,199 36,723 63,834 72,366 69,173 78,041 79,630 87,860 47,454 86,987 118,735 149,092 Statistical discrepancy Allocations of special Total (sum Of which: drawing of the items Seasonal rights adjustment with sign (SDEs) discrepancy reversed) -2,974 -11,743 55,830 46,476 -26,843 -23,080 43,550 13,724 31,548 -53,122 -16,630 18,763 -18,039 29,626 9,806 33,854 -41,533 29,420 4,522 -9,261 -21,804 -26,573 5,105 274 -6,490 1,107 6,519 -266 -7,407 1,153 6,653 -449 -8,318 2,119 U.S. official reserve assets, net5 (unadjusted, end of period) 45,798 47,802 74,609 83,316 77,721 71,323 73,442 74,335 85,832 75,089 76,809 75,732 76,532 74,335 86,761 90,063 87,152 85,832 84,212 83,455 75,509 75,089 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents Pa e TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME. AND SPENDING « Gross Domestic Product Real Gross Domestic Product Implicit Price Deflators for Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product and Related Price Measures: Indexes and Percent Changes Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income , Corporate Profits Real Gross Private Domestic Investment , Real Private Fixed Investment by Type Business Investment and Plans 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 , EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT. AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Employment Cost Index—Private Industry Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY. CREDIT. AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Consumer Credit Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services U.S. International Transactions , 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: P Preliminary. r Revised. c Corrected. ... Not available (also, not applicable). NSA not seasonally adjusted. nn 38 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Price $3.00 (singie copy) ($3.75 foreign). Subscription price: $33.00 per year: $41.25 for foreign mailing. U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1997 40-433