Full text of Economic Indicators : May 1973
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93d Congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators May 1973 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1973 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas, Chairman WILLIAM PROXMIRE, Wisconsin, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES RICHARD BOLLING (Missouri) HENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin) MARTHA W. GRIFFITHS (Michigan) WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD (Pennsylvania) HUGH L. CAREY (New York) WILLIAM B. WIDNALL (New Jersey) BARBER B. CONABLE, Jr. (New York) CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio) BEN B. BLACKBURN (Georgia) SENATE JOHN SPARKMAN (Alabama) J. W. FULBRIGHT (Arkansas) ABRAHAM RIBICOFF (Connecticut) HUBERT H. HUMPHREY (Minnesota) LLOYD M. BENTSEN, Jr. (Texas) JACOB K. JAVITS (New York) CHARLES H. PERCY (Illinois) JAMES B. PEARSON (Kansas) RICHARD S. SCHWEIKER (Pennsylvania) JOHN R. STARK, Executive Director LOUGHLIN F, McHuGH, Senior Economist COUNCIL OF HERBERT STEIN, Chairman MARINA v. N. WHITMAN Economic Indicators prepared under supervision of FRANCES M. JAMES [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—Isr SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators'" "Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled^ That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch^ Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at 5 5 cents a single copy or by subscription at $6.50 per year ($1.75 additional for foreign mailing) from; SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C 20402 Subscribers who wish to receive it at an earlier date after release may take advantage of provisions for airmail subscriptions. The domestic airmail subscription price is $3.60 additional per year. TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING THE NATION'S INCOME, EXPENDITURE, AND SAVING Gross national product rose by an extraordinary $43 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) to $1,238 billion in the first quarter, according to revised estimates. There was a huge rise of $28 billion in consumer expenditures. The excess of imports over exports improved somewhat while business investment and government purchases at all levels increased. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Persons (jovernme nt E xpenditur es N et receipts PerLess: Equals: Less: Less: sonal Tax Interest Total Personal saving TransTrans- Equals: and Purpaid and exclud- consumpfers, fers, Equals: Total or tion nontax interest, chases ing expendinterest, expendNet disTotal * transfer of goods interest itures saving receipts and receipts itures payand or and and ments SUD— SUD— 2 2 accruals sidies services to for- transsidies fers eigners Disposab le personsil income Period Surplus or deficit income and product accounts 1966 1967_ _ 1968__ . _ 1969 1970 1971 1972 511. 9 546. 3 591. 0 634.4 689. 5 744.4 795. 1 13. 0 13. 9 15. 1 16. 7 17.9 18. 5 19. 3 498. 9 532. 4 575. 9 617. 7 671. 6 725. 8 775.9 466. 3 492. 1 536. 2 579. 5 616. 8 664. 9 721.0 32. 5 40. 4 39. 8 38. 2 54. 9 60. 9 54. 8 213.3 228. 9 263. 5 296. 7 302. 0 321. 6 366. 1 55. 5 62. 8 70. 7 77. 9 93. 0 105. 7 117. 1 157.9 166. 2 192. 7 218. 8 209. 0 215. 9 249.0 212. 3 242. 9 270.3 287.9 312. 1 338. 5 371. 6 55. 5 62.8 70.7 77. 9 93. 0 105. 7 117. 1 156. 8 180. 1 199. 6 210. 0 219. 0 232. 8 254. 6 1. 1 -13. 9 -6. 8 8. 8 -10. 1 -16. 9 -5.4 1971: III... IV___ 750. 4 758. 5 18. 7 18. 8 731. 7 739. 7 670. 7 680. 5 61. 0 59. 3 323. 3 330.7 106. 5 108.4 216.8 222. 3 340. 2 349.4 106. 5 108. 4 233.6 240. 9 -16.9 -18. 7 1972: I II III___ IV___ 770. 5 782. 6 798. 8 828. 2 18.8 19. 1 19.4 19. 8 751. 7 763.5 779.4 808. 4 696. 1 713. 4 728. 6 745.7 55. 7 50. 1 50.8 62.8 353. 8 361.4 368.8 380.7 112. 1 114. 1 115.7 126. 2 241.7 247. 3 253. 1 254.5 361. 6 368. 3 371. 2 385.5 112. 1 114. 1 115. 7 126.2 249.4 254. 1 255. 6 259. 3 -7. 7 -6. 9 -2.4 -4.8 1973: !*___ 850.4 20. 2 830. 2 773. 6 56. 5 399. 6 125. 8 273. 8 392. 6 125. 8 266. 8 7. 0 Net Net exports of goods and service s Excess of Total transfers StatisGross Excess Gross private to fortransfers income tical of retained domestic invest- eigners or or discrepearnby perof net receipts ancy ment sons Less: Equals: and Exports Imports Net ings 3 investexports ment 4 (-) Governexports ( _ _ ) 5 ment Gross national product or expenditure Iiiternation al Business Period 91. 3 93. 0 95. 4 97. 0 97. 3 109. 9 124. 1 121. 4 116. 6 126. 0 139. 0 137. 1 152. 0 180.4 -30. 1 -23. 5 -30. 6 -42. 0 -39.7 -42.1 -56. 3 2. 8 3. 0 2. 9 2. 9 3. 2 1971: III IV 110. 5 117. 2 152.2 158. 8 -41. 7 -41. 6 1972:1 II III... IV 115. 9 124. 8 125. 1 130. 1 168. 1 177. 0 183.2 193.4 -52. 2 -52. 2 -58. 1 -63.3 128. 2 199. 7 -71. 5 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 ___ 1973:1 " 1 43. 4 46. 2 50. 6 55. 5 62. 9 66. 1 73. 7 38. 1 41. 0 48. 1 53. 6 59. 3 65. 4 77.9 3.8 68. 5 63. 0 3. 8 3. 8 .7 -4.2 -2.4 750. 9 794. 6 -2. 2 .4 866. 9 1. 0 936. 3 4 981. 1 2. 8 1, 055. 2 7.8 1, 152. 7 -1.0 —.7 -2. 7 -6. 1 -4.7 -4.8 -.8 749. 9 793. 9 864 2 930. 3 976.4 1, 050. 4 1, 151. 8 68. 2 65. 1 .4 -2. 1 3. 4 1, 062. 8 6. 1 1, 083. 2 -5,9 -5. 2 1, 056. 9 1, 078. 1 3. 3 70.7 70. 0 74.4 79.6 75.3 75. 2 77.8 83. 1 -4. 6 -5.2 -3.4 -3.5 8. 4 9. 0 7.2 6.8 1, 113. 1 1, 139. 4 1, 161. 6 1, 196.3 -4.1 _ i 2. 3 -1.5 1, 109. 1 1, 139. 4 1, 164. 0 1, 194. 9 3.2 87. 6 89. 8 -2. 2 5. 5 1, 235. 4 2.5 1, 237. 9 3.6 3.7 4. 0 3.8 Personal income (p. 5) less personal tax and nontax payments (fines, penalties, etc.). 2 Government transfer payments to persons, foreign net transfers by Government, net interest paid by government, subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises, and disbursements less wage accruals, s Capital consumption allowances, corporate inventory valuation adjustment, undistributed corporate profits, and private wage accruals less disbursements. Does not include retained earnings of unincorporated business, which are included 5. 3 5. 2 2. 5 1. 9 3.6 in4disposable personal income. Private business investment, purchases of capital goods by private nonprofit institutions, and residential housing. 5 Net foreign investment less capital grants received by United States, with sign changed. Source: Department of Commerce, GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OR EXPENDITURE Gross national product (seasonally adjusted) rose at an annual rate of 15.2 percent in the first quarter. Real rose at an 8.0 percent rate while prices increased at a 6.6 percent rate. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 11,400 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES 600 600 GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES 200 J_ I i_ UIIIIIIIMIIIIIIIII 200 IIIII.HilMM'"""""""' NET" EXPORTS "OF GOODS AND SERVICES GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT \ I 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 I 1972 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1971: III IV 1972: I II Ill IV... 1973: I 561.0 581. 1 617.8 658. 1 675.2 706.6 725.6 722. 1 741. 7 789.5 742. 5 754.5 . 766. 5 783. 9 796.1 811.6 827. 3 590. 5 632.4 684. 9 749. 9 793. 9 864. 2 930. 3 976.4 1, 050. 4 1, 151. 8 1, 056. 9 1, 078. 1 1, 109. 1 1, 139. 4 1, 164. 0 1, 194. 9 1, 237. 9 375.0 401.2 432. 8 466. 3 492. 1 536. 2 579.5 616. 8 664.9 721.0 670.7 680. 5 696. 1 713.4 728.6 745.7 773.6 87. 1 94.0 108. 1 121.4 116. 6 126. 0 139.0 137. 1 152. 0 180.4 152. 2 158. 8 168. 1 177.0 183.2 193.4 199.7 1 This category corresponds closely with budget outlays for national defense, shown on p. 36. 1973 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total Personal Gross congross Total private sump- domestic national gross tion product national investin 1958 product expendment itures dollars Billions (3f dollars; quarterly Period I Gove rnment ] Durchases of good s and Net services exports Federal of goods State Total and and National Total defense1 Other local services Implicit price deflator for total GNP, 1958 -1002 data at s easonall; y ad juste;d annual rates 5.9 8. 5 6.9 5.3 5.2 2. 5 1.9 3.6 .7 -4.2 .4 -2. 1 -4. 6 -5.2 -3.4 -3.5 -2.2 122. 5 128. 7 137.0 156. 8 180. 1 199. 6 210. 0 219. 0 232.8 254.6 233. 6 240. 9 249.4 254. 1 255. 6 259. 3 266. 8 64. 2 65.2 66. 9 77.8 90.7 98. 8 98. 8 96.5 97.8 105.8 97.9 100.7 105. 7 108. 1 105.4 104.0 106. 6 50. 8 50.0 50. 1 60.7 72. 4 78. 3 78.4 75.1 71.4 75. 9 70. 1 71. 9 76. 7 78. 6 75. 1 73.2 75. 0 13. 5 15.2 16. 8 17. 1 ia4 20. 5 20.4 21.5 26. 3 29.9 27. 8 28. 7 28. 9 29. 6 30.2 30.8 31.6 58.2 63. 5 70. 1 79.0 89.4 100. 8 111.2 122. 5 135. 0 148.8 135. 7 140. 2 143. 7 146.0 150.2 155.2 160. 1 107. 17 108. 85 110. 86 113. 95 117. 59 122. 30 128. 20 135. 23 141. 61 145. 89 142. 35 142. 88 144. 68 145. 34 146. 21 147. 23 149. 62 3 Gross national product in current dollars divided by gross national product in 1958 dollars. Source: Department of Commerce. NATIONAL INCOME According to preliminary estimates, national income rose $33 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter following a rise of $31 billion in the fourth quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1000 1,000 900 800 700 600 CORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT 1973 SOURC& DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Total national income Compensation of em- 1 ployees Proprieto rs' income Farm 2 Business and professional Rental income of per- Net Corporal ',Q profits and inventory va luation ac [justment interest Total Profits Inventory before valuation taxes adjustment 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 481. 9 518.1 564.3 620. 6 653. 6 711. 1 766. 0 798.6 855. 7 935.6 341.0 365.7 393.8 435. 5 467. 2 514. 6 566. 0 603. 8 644. 1 705.3 13. 1 12.1 14.8 16. 1 14. 8 14.7 16. 7 16.9 17.3 19. 6 37. 9 40.2 42.4 45. 2 47.3 49. 5 50.5 49. 9 52. 6 55. 6 17. 1 18.0 19.0 20. 0 21. 1 21. 2 22.6 23.3 24.5 25.6 13. 8 15.8 18.2 21. 4 24 4 26. 9 30.5 34.8 38. 5 41. 3 58. 9 66.3 76. 1 82. 4 78. 7 84. 3 79. 8 69.9 78.6 88.2 59. 4 66.8 77.8 84. 2 79. 8 87. 6 84. 9 74. 3 83.3 94. 3 -0.5 .o — 1.7 -1. 8 — 1.1 -3. 3 -5. 1 -4.4 -4. 7 -6.0 1971: III IV__ 860.8 876. 2 648. 0 660.4 17.6 18.1 53. 1 53. 8 24.8 25. 0 39. 1 39. 7 78.3 79. 4 84. 1 83. 2 -5. 8 -3.9 903. 1 922. 1 943. 0 974.2 1, 007. 1 682. 7 697. 8 710.2 730. 3 757. 0 19. 1 18. 7 19. 1 21. 6 22. 5 54. 3 54. 4 56.2 57.4 58. 7 25. 2 24.2 26. 2 26. 9 26. 5 40. 1 40. 9 41.7 42.5 43. 4 81. 8 86. 1 89. 6 95.6 99. 0 88. 2 91.6 95. 7 101.5 113. 1 -6.5 -5.5 -6. 1 -5.9 -14. 1 1972: I II III IV 1973: I» 1 3 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 4.) Excludes farm profits of corporations engaged in farming and therefore differs from net farm income (including net inventory change) on p. 6 which includes such profits. Source: Department of Commerce. SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose in April at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $7% billion, about the same as the averase rise in the 2 preceding months. With employment and average weekly earnings high, wages and salaries increased $6 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 1967 1973 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Total personal income 1965 538.9 1966 587. 2 1967 629. 3 1968 688. 9 1969 750.9 1970 806. 3 1971 861.4 1972 935.9 1972: Mar 913. 6 Apr 919.4 May 924. 0 June 922. 9 July____ 932. 9 Aug 940. 0 Sept 946.8 Oct 964.8 Nov 976.2 Dec 982.9 1973: Jan 986. 0 Feb 994. 5 Marv 1, 001. 3 Apr 1, 008. 9 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 3) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. 2 Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; compensation for injuries; directors' fees; military reserve pay; and a few other minor items. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] ; Wage Rental and Other Propriet<3rs income income Transfer Divi- Personal salary labor 1 2 Business interest payof dends disburseand pro- persons income ments income Farm l fessional ments 18.7 19.0 38.7 358.9 14.8 42.4 19.8 39. 9 394.5 20. 0 44. 1 20.7 16. 1 45. 2 43. 6 20.8 21. 1 21. 4 22. 3 14. 8 47. 3 423. 1 48. 0 51. 8 21. 2 464. 9 14.7 25. 4 49. 5 23. 6 52. 9 59. 6 24. 3 28.4 50. 5 22. 6 509. 7 16. 7 59. 3 65. 8 541. 9 32. 1 23.3 49.9 24. 8 65. 8 16, 9 79.5 572. 9 24. 5 17.3 52. 6 25. 4 36. 5 69. 6 93. 6 627.0 104. 0 40. 3 19.6 55. 6 25. 6 26. 4 72.9 612.4 39.1 19.5 54.7 25. 3 71.3 100. 1 26. 0 617. 6 54. 9 25. 5 72. 0 39. 5 19. 1 26. 1 99. 7 619. 9 39. 8 25. 6 72.7 55. 3 100. 9 26. 3 1&7 624. 0 21. 5 73.4 40. 1 18. 4 53. 2 26. 3 101. 3 40. 5 18. 6 102. 2 625. 7 25. 8 73. 5 55. 7 26. 4 630. 6 102. 8 40. 8 73.4 19. 1 56. 3 26. 3 26.6 636.0 41. 1 26.5 19. 5 56. 7 26. 5 73. 3 103. 2 643.0 41.4 20.7 27.0 57.0 26.7 73.7 111. 6 41. 8 648.5 26.7 74. 5 22. 1 57.4 26. 6 115.2 654. 9 42. 1 22.0 57. 8 26. 9 26. 8 113. 6 75.4 42, 4 22. 2 58.2 26.6 662.7 27. 1 75. 9 113. 3 668. 4 42. 7 22. 5 27. 3 58. 7 26. 6 114. 8 76. 2 43.0 22. 8 673. 1 59. 1 27.4 26. 3 76. 8 115. 5 22. 5 26.4 679. 0 43. 3 27. 6 77. 3 59.5 116. 5 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance 13.4 17. 7 20. 5 22. 8 26. 3 28. 0 31. 2 35. 5 34. 8 35. 0 35. 1 35. 3 35. 5 35. 8 36. 0 36.4 36. 5 36.6 42. 4 42. 7 42. 8 43. 2 Nonagricultural personal income 3 519. 5 566. 3 609. 4 668. 8 728. 3 782. 8 837. 2 909.3 887. 1 893. 4 898.3 897. 5 907. 3 914. 0 920. 3 937. 1 947.2 953.9 956. 6 964. 6 971. 1 979. 1 8 Personal income exclusive of net income of unincorporated farm enterprises. farm wages, agricultural net interest, and net dividends paid by agricultural corporations. Source: Department of Commerce. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable income (seasonally adjusted) rose again in the first quarter and was 6 percent above a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,000 900 DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME DOLLARS 4,500 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 4000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1967 1968 1972 1973 SOURCE! DEPARTMENT OF CO/AMERCE Period Less: PerPersonal sonal tax and income nontax payments COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Less: Perse>nal outla ys Equals: Persoilal consulnption Equals: Disex penditure s 2 Personal Total posable saving personal personall Durable NonServices income outlays goods durable goods Billions of dollars 538.9 1965 587. 2 1966 629. 3 1967 688. 9 1968 750. 9 1969 1970_ _ __ 806. 3 861. 4 1971 1972. 935.9 65.7 75. 4 83. 0 97.9 116. 5 116. 7 117. 0 140. 8 473.2 511. 9 546. 3 591. 0 634. 4 689. 5 744. 4 795. 1 444.8 479. 3 506. 0 551. 2 596. 2 634.7 683. 4 740.2 66.3 70. 8 73. 1 84.0 90. 8 90.5 103. 5 116. 1 Per caj)ita disposable personal inc<3me Current dollars 1958 dollars Saving as percent of Populadistion posable (thou-3 personal sands) income (percent) Dol lars 191. 1 206. 9 215. 0 230. 8 245. 9 264.4 278. 1 299.5 175.5 188. 6 204.0 221. 3 242. 7 261. 8 283. 3 305.4 28.4 32.5 40. 4 39.8 38. 2 54.9 60. 9 54.8 2,436 2,604 2,749 2,945 3, 130 3,366 3, 595 3, 807 2,239 2,335 2,403 2,486 2,534 2,603 2,679 2, 770 6.0 6. 4 7. 4 6,7 6. 0 8. 0 8. 2 6.9 194, 303 196, 560 198, 712 200, 706 202, 677 204, 879 207, 049 208, 837 Seasc naily adjiisted annu al rates 1971:111. 867.9 IV__ 881. 5 117. 5 123. 0 750.4 758. 5 689.4 699.2 106. 1 106. 1 278. 5 283. 4 286. 1 290. 9 61. 0 59.3 3,620 3,649 2,684 2,698 8. 1 7.8 207, 312 207, 856 907. 0 922. 1 939.9 974.6 136. 5 139. 5 141. 1 146.4 770.5 782. 6 798.8 828.2 714.9 732. 5 748.0 765.5 111. 0 113. 9 118.6 120.8 288. 3 297. 2 302.0 310.4 296. 7 302.4 308.0 314.5 55.7 50. 1 50.8 62.8 3, 700 3,751 3,821 3, 953 2, 716 2,739 2,773 2,851 7.2 6.4 6.4 7.6 208, 208, 209, 209, 1973: I—- 993. 9 143.5 850. 4 793.9 130.4 322. 6 320. 6 56.5 4,052 2?882 6.6 209, 866 1972: I - _ II__ IIIIV. _ 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers, ind personal transfer payments to foreigners. 2 See p. 2 for total personal consumption expenditures. 255 628 053 509 3 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are for July 1; quarterly data are for middle of period, interpolated from monthly data. Source: Department of Commerce. FARM INCOME In the first quarter, net farm income (seasonally adjusted) rose by about 4 percent. Net income from farming in constant dollars per farm was 10 percent above a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SO 80 70 70 50 50 40 40 30 30 NET FARM INCOME INCLUDING NET INVENTORY CHANGE 20 20 10 10 J f J J ! 1968 1967 J I I J 1970 1969 I f 1971 t 1972 Personal rincome re ceived by total 1 arm popu lation [ncome re ceived fro m farmingI Net t o farm oper ators Realizejd gross 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970. 1971 1972 _ f 1973 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Period J From all sources From farm sources 23.6 24. 9 24.0 25. 1 27. 6 28. 2 29.5 33.2 13.5 14. 4 13. 1 13. 2 14. 9 15. 0 15. 6 17. 7 From nonfarm sources Net inc ome per farm inci uding net3 inventor}r change ProducCash tion ex- Exclud- Includreceipts penses ing net in- ing net in- Current 1967 from Total * ventory ventory dollars dollars 4 2 marketchange change ings Billions <>f dollars Doi lars 10.0 10. 5 10. 9 11. 9 12. 7 13. 2 13. 9 15.5 44.9 49. 7 49. 0 50. 9 55. 6 57. 9 60. 1 66.4 39.3 43. 3 42. 7 44. 1 48. 1 50. 5 53. 1 58.5 30.9 33. 4 34. 8 36. 2 38. 8 41. 1 44. 0 47. 2 14.0 16. 3 14. 2 14.7 16. 8 16.8 16. 1 19.2 15.0 16. 3 14.9 14.8 16. 9 16. 8 17. 4 19.8 4, 487 5,019 4,730 4, 854 5, 674 5,754 6,049 7,000 4,723 5, 121 4,730 4,667 5,206 5,047 5,083 5,645 17.7 18. 2 19. 3 18. 9 19. 2 21. 7 22.6 6, 150 6, 330 6,820 6, 680 6, 780 7, 660 8,070 5,130 5,280 5,590 5,390 5,420 6, 080 6,160 Seaso nalty adj'uisted annual rates 1971: III IV 1972: I II III IV 1973: I . 1 Cash receipts from marketings, Government payments, and nomnoney income furnished by farms. 2 Inventory of crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year. Also, see footnote 2, p. 3. * Based on Census of Agriculture definition of a farm. The number of farms is held constant within a year. 60. 4 61.8 64. 1 64. 8 66. 1 70. 6 75.6 53. 4 54 9 56. 5 56. 9 58. 1 62.5 68. 5 44. 3 44. 9 45. 6 46. 5 47. 3 49. 4 53.5 16. 1 16. 9 18. 5 18. 3 18.8 21. 2 22. 1 * Income in current dollars divided by the index of prices paid by farmers for family living items on a 1967 base. Source: Department of Agriculture. CORPORATE PROFITS Corporate profits before taxes including inventory valuation adjustment rose $3.4 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter. The sharp rise in wholesale prices brought about a pronounced increase in inventory gains, so that book profits (excluding inventory valuation adjustment) rose $11.6 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 40 20 20 -I/ 1967 1973 If PRELIMINARY SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISES [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally CorjDerate pi ofits (bef(Dre taxes) and inveritory valuation adjustme Dt TransCorpoM anufaetui -ing portation, rate Period comprofits NonAll Durable All munibefore indusgoods durable other 1 taxes goods cations, tries Total indusand indus- public tries tries utilities 22. 8 39.3 16. 6 76. 1 1965 25. 6 77. 8 11. 1 24. 0 42.6 82. 4 18. 6 1966 27. 9 84.2 11. 9 38. 7 20.7 18. 0 78. 7 1967 29. 1 79.8 10.8 22. 4 41. 7 84. 3 19. 3 32. 0 1968 87. 6 10. 6 36. 6 18.8 17.7 79. 8 1969 33. 1 84.9 10. 1 27.7 11.0 16.7 69. 9 1970 34.6 74.3 7. 6 14. 1 30.9 16. 8 1971___ _ _ 78.6 8. 2 39.5 83. 3 37.9 1972 18.9 88.2 19.0 94.3 41.3 9.0 adjusted annual rates] Cor] Derate pi'ofits $tfter taxcJS Corporate DiviUntax liabil- Total dend distribpayuted ity ments profits Corporate capital consumption allow-2 ances Profits plus capital consumption allow-3 ances 31. 3 34.3 33.2 39.9 40. 1 34. 1 37.3 41.3 46. 5 49. 9 46. 6 47.8 44. 8 40. 2 45.9 53.0 19. 8 20. 8 21. 4 23. 6 24.3 24.8 25.4 26.4 26. 7 29. 1 25. 3 24. 2 20. 5 15.4 20.5 26.6 36. 4 39. 5 43. 0 46. 8 51. 9 55. 2 60.3 67.7 82.9 89. 5 89. 6 94, 6 96.8 95.3 106. 2 120.7 1971: IIL._ IV. „ 78.3 79. 4 30. 1 31. 2 13. 3 14. 3 16. 9 16. 9 8.5 7.6 39. 6 40.6 84. 1 83. 2 37. 5 35. 3 46. 6 48. 0 25.5 25. 2 21.0 22.7 61. 2 63. 0 107.8 110.9 1972: I II... III.. IV. _ 81.8 86. 1 89. 6 95. 6 35. 4 37. 0 37. 9 41. 3 17. 7 19.4 18.4 19.9 17. 7 17. 6 19.5 21. 3 8. 8 7.8 38. 5 40. 3 42. 1 44.4 88. 2 91. 6 95.7 101.5 38. 8 40. 1 41.8 44. 3 49. 5 51.5 53.9 57.2 26.0 26.2 26. 5 26. 7 23.5 25.3 27.3 30.5 64.8 68. 0 68.4 69.5 114. 3 119. 5 122.2 126.7 1973: I" 99. 0 113.1 50.8 62.3 27.3 35.0 70.6 132.9 9.6 9. 9 i8 Includes all other industries and financial institutions. Includes depreciation and accidental damages. s Corporate profits after taxes plus corporate capital consumption allowances. 95-482°—73 Source: Department of Commerce. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT Gross private domestic investment rose $6 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter. Increases in fixed investment were partly offset by a decline in the rate of inventory accumulation. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 200 50 50. 1967 SOURCES! DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Fixed knvestment Period Total gross private domestic Total investment Resid ential struc tures N<president ial Struc tures Total Total Nonfarm Produce rs7 durable equdpment Total Nonfarm Total Nonfarm Change in business inv entories Total Nonfarm 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 87. 1 94 0 108. 1 121. 4 116.6 126. 0 139. 0 137. 1 152. 0 180.4 81. 3 88. 2 98. 5 106.6 108. 4 118. 9 131. 1 132. 2 148. 3 174.5 54 3 61. 1 71. 3 81. 6 83.3 88. 8 98.5 100.9 105. 8 120.6 19. 5 21.2 25. 5 28.5 28. 0 30. 3 34.2 36. 0 38.4 42. 2 18.8 20.5 24. 9 27. 8 27. 3 29. 6 33. 5 35. 2 37. 5 41. 4 34.8 39. 9 45. 8 53. 1 55. 3 58. 5 64. 3 64. 9 67.4 78.3 31.2 36,3 41. 6 48. 4 50. 0 53. 6 59.2 59. 2 60. 9 70.5 27.0 27.1 27.2 25. 0 25. 1 30. 1 32. 6 31. 2 42. 6 54.0 24 5 29. 5 32. 0 30. 7 42. 0 53. 2 1971:111 IV 152.2 158. 8 150. 9 157. 2 106. 3 109. 8 38. 7 38.8 37. 9 38. 0 67. 6 71.0 60. 8 64. 2 44. 5 47. 3 43. 9 46. 7 1.3 1. 7 .8 1972:1 II III IV 168. 1 177.0 183.2 193.4 167.7 172. 0 175.2 183.1 116. 1 119. 2 120.7 126. 1 41. 3 42. 0 41.8 43.7 40. 5 41. 2 40.9 42.9 74.8 77.2 79.0 82.3 67. 7 69. 6 71.0 73.5 51. 6 52.8 544 57.0 51. 0 52. 1 53.7 56. 1 .4 5.0 8.0 10.3 43 7.9 10.1 1973:1 199.7 192.9 133.5 46. 7 45.8 86.8 78.0 59. 4 58. 4 6.8 6.5 Source: Department of Commerce. 8 26. 4 26.6 26. 7 245 5.9 5. 8 9. 6 14 8 8. 2 7. 1 7.8 49 3. 6 5.9 5. 1 6.4 8.6 15.0 7.5 6. 9 7. 7 48 2.4 5.6 o .1 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Businessmen expect to Increase their expenditures for new plant and equipment by 14 percent from 1972 to 1973. Manufacturers expect a rise of 18 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 100 100 TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT 80. 80 60 60 NONMANUFACTURING 40 40 MANUFACTURING j 20 I J L I 1968 1967 1969 J I I 1970 V I L 1972 1971 20 1973 \f SEE FOOTNOTE 3 BELOW. SOURCE' DEPARTMENT OF CO/AMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] M r anufactu rlno: Period Total 1963. . 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968__. 1969 1970 1971 1972__ 1973 3 1972: I _ TI III IV 1973: I 3 113 2d half 3 1 1 l Durable goods Nondurable goods Mining Total 40. 77 46,97 54. 42 63. 51 65. 47 67. 76 75. 56 79. 71 81.21 88. 44 100. 62 16. 22 19. 34 23. 44 28. 20 28. 51 28. 37 31. 68 31. 95 29. 99 31. 35 37. 01 7. 53 9. 28 11. 50 14. 06 14. 06 14. 12 15. 96 15. 80 14. 15 15. 64 18. 70 86. 79 87. 12 87. 67 91. 94 96. 74 100. 13 102. 63 30. 09 30. 37 30. 98 33. 64 35. 98 37. 13 37. 43 15. 06 14. 77 15. 67 16. 86 17.88 18. 70 19. 07 8. 70 10.07 11. 94 14. 14 14. 45 14. 25 15. 72 16. 15 15. 84 15. 72 18. 31 15. 02 15. 60 15. 31 16. 78 18. 10 18. 43 18. 36 1. 27 1.34 1. 46 1. 62 1. 65 1. 63 1. 86 1. 89 2. 16 2. 42 2. 64 2. 42 2. 38 2. 40 2. 46 2. 54 2. 62 2. 69 Excludes agricultural business; real estate operators; medical, legal? educational, and cultural service; and nonprofit organizations. 2 Includes trade, service, construction, finance, and insurance. 3 Estimates based on expected capital expenditures as reported by business in late January and February 1973. Includes adjustments when necessary for systemc tic tendencies in expectations data. Transportat ion Railroad 1. 26 1. 66 1. 99 2. 37 1. 86 1. 45 1. 86 1. 78 1. 67 1. 80 1. 68 2. 10 1. 88 1. 50 1. 71 2. 08 1. 79 1. 45 Commercial and other 2 Other Public utilities Communication 0. 40 1. 02 1. 22 1. 74 2. 29 2. 56 2. 51 3. 03 1. 88 2. 46 2. 38 1. 58 1. 50 1. 68 1. 64 1.48 1. 59 1. 68 1. 23 1. 38 1. 46 1. 52 4. 98 5. 49 6. 13 7. 43 8. 74 10. 20 11. 61 13. 14 15. 30 17. 00 19. 82 4.06 4.61 5. 30 6. 02 6. 34 6. 83 8. 30 10. 10 10. 77 11.89 13. 40 10. 99 12. 02 13. 19 14.48 14.59 15. 14 16. 05 16. 59 18. 05 20.07 22. 16 1. 96 2. 89 2. 67 2. 33 2. 12 2. 94 2. 22 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 16. 92 16. 60 17. 01 17. 53 18. 36 18. 56 21. 06 11.71 11. 59 11.56 12. 63 20. 10 19. 88 20. 16 20. 21 Air 48 53 41 42 66 70 38 33. 98 35. 38 36. 39 NOTE.—Annual total is the sum of unadjusted expenditures; it does not necessarily coincide with the average of seasonally adjusted figures. These figures donot agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. Source: Department of Commerce. EMPLOYMENT,UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE In April, both the labor force and employment grew by small amounts on a seasonally adjusted basis, following the exceptionally large gains recorded during February and March. An increase in nonagricultural employment (197,000) was almost offset by a decline (169,000) in agricultural employment during April. MILLIONS OF PERSONS 90 MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 90 PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1969 1967 1970 1971 1972 *16 Y E A R S OF AGE AND OVER. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Period Total labor force (includAlng^ Armed Forces) 1969___ 1970___ 1971 1972*._ 84, 240 85, 903 86, 929 88, 991 1972: Mar* 87, 914 Apr_ 87, 787 May- 87, 986 June . 90, 448 July_ 91, 005 Aug_ 90, 758 Sept. 89, 098 Oct_. 89, 591 Nov_ 89, 400 Dec__ 89, 437 1973: Jan__ 88, 122 Feb_. 89, 075 Mar*. 89, 686 Apr__ 89, 823 1 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Civilisin employ ment Total Total labor Unemforce Nonploy- (includagriment ing eulArmed tural Forces) Thousands of T:>ersons 16 74, 296 2, 832 84, 240 75, 165 4,088 85, 903 75, 732 4, 993 86, 929 78, 230 4, 840 88, 991 77, 902 78, 627 79, 120 81, 702 Unadj- isted Civili*in emplc yment Civilian labor force Total Agricultural years of age and o ver 80, 734 77, 902 3, 606 82, 715 78, 627 3, 462 84, 113 79, 120 3, 387 86, 542 81, 702 3,472 Nonagricultural Labor Unem- Unemp] oyment force rate (pe rcent of ployparticicivilia n labor pation ment for ce) rate1 Percent 74, 296 75, 165 75, 732 78, 230 2,832 4, 088 4,993 4, 840 5, 048 4,975 4,973 4,802 4,815 4,880 4,810 4, 839 4, 498 £Seasonally adjusted 3. 5 4. 9 5.9 5. 6 Unadjusted 80, 195 80, 627 81, 223 82, 629 83, 443 83, 505 82, 034 82, 707 82, 703 82, 881 77, 101 77, 339 77, 692 78, 653 79, 383 79, 475 78, 376 78, 986 79, 340 79, 719 5, 215 4, 697 4,344 5, 426 5, 173 4, 857 4,658 4,470 4, 266 4, 116 88, 768 88, 647 88, 850 88, 947 88, 985 89, 337 89, 471 89, 651 89, 454 89, 707 86, 264 86, 184 86, 431 86, 554 86, 597 86, 941 87, 066 87, 236 87, 023 87, 267 81 81 81 81 81 82 82 82 82 82 216 209 458 752 782 061 256 397 525 780 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 460 313 338 331 443 610 579 658 556 650 77, 766 77, 896 78, 120 78, 421 78, 339 78, 451 78, 677 78, 739 78, 969 79, 130 4,487 5. 1 4. 9 4. 7 81, 043 81, 838 82, 814 83, 299 78, 088 78, 882 79, 683 80, 004 4, 4, 4, 4, 89, 325 89, 961 90, 629 90, 700 86, 921 87, 569 88, 268 88, 350 S2 83 83 83 555 127 889 917 3 3 3 3 501 424 480 311 79, 054 79, 703 80, 409 80, 606 4, 366 4,442 4, 379 / 4,1 4$o 5.5 675 845 512 174 Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population. Source: Department of Labor. 10 1973 QG> 6. 1 5. 5 5. 1 6. 2 5. 8 5. 5 5.4 5. 6 5.2 4. 8 61. 1 61. 3 61. 0 61.0 Seaso nally adju sted 5. 9 5.8 5. 8 5.5 5. 6 5. 6 5.5 5. 5 5.2 5.1 5.0 5. 1 5. 0 5. 0 61. 2 61. 0 61. 1 61. 1 61. 0 61. 2 61. 2 61. 2 61. 0 61. 1 60. 7 61.1 61. 4 61. 4 •Data beginning January 1972 not strictly comparable with prior data because of adjustment to 1970 Census data, which added 333,000 to the civilian labor force and 301,000 to civilian employment. A further adjustment in March 1973 added 60,000 to the labor force and to employment. SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND PART-TIME EMPLOYMENT The unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) remained at 5.0 percent in April and was well below the 5.8 percent of a year earlier. PERCENT 10 PERCENT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED •\ IABOR FORCE TIME LOST / UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, EXPERIENCED WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, ALL CIVILIAN WORKERS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, MARRIED MEN 1967 1973 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR UneEaploymen t rate (percen t of civiliiin labor for ce in groLip) Period 1969 1970 1971 1972 1972: Mar Apr May June__July Aug Sept Oct. Nov Dec 1973: Jan Feb Mar Apr 1 Persons at work in nonagn cultural ir idustries by hours worked i>er week 2 Uiider 35 ho UTS Labor Experi- Married force enced All men time lost J Over 40 wage and hours workers salary (wife workers present) 3.5 4. 9 5.9 Per cent 3.3 1. 5 4.8 2.6 5. 7 3. 2 5.3 2.8 Seasonall y adjusted 5.5 2. 8 6.9 5.S 2. 9 5.8 2.8 5. 8 5.4 5.5 5. 1 2. 9 5. 6 5. 6 5. 6 5. 5 5. 3 5.3 5.2 5.5 5. 2 5.0 5.1 4.8 4.6 4.7 4.6 5. 2 5. 1 5. 0 5. 0 4.9 4.7 2. 7 2. 6 2. 8 2. 8 2.5 2.4 2.4 2. 4 2. 5 2.4 3.9 5. 3 6. 4 6.0 20, 608 18, 925 19, 095 20, 320 6. 2 1 21, 876 6. 1 20,239 6. 2 20, 478 19, 989 5.9 18, 824 6.0 19, 626 6.1 21, 881 5.8 5. 8 20, 735 5.4 21, 404 5.3 21, 740 5. 3 19, 527 6.4 20, 311 5.2 21, 485 5. 3 20, 968 Man-hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part-time for economic reasons as a percent of potentially available labor force man-hours. 2 Differs from total nonagricultural employment (p. 10), which includes persons with jobs but not at work for such reasons as vacation, illness, bad weather, and industrial disputes. s Includes persons who worked part-time because of slack work, material shortages or repairs, new job started, or job terminated. 35-40 hours Part-ti me for economi c reasons Total Part-ti me for economi c reasons Usually Usually Usually fullfullparttime 3 time 3 time 4 Thousan ds of pers ons 16 ye ars of age and over 34, 201 15, 210 855 955 1, 201 995 33, 537 18, 222 35, 752 16, 298 1, 184 1, 256 36, 794 16, 549 1, 327 1,081 I Jnadjusteo Seasonall y 37, 517 17, 774 1, 172 1, 140 1,138 37, 592 16, 571 1, 081 1, 170 1, 103 37, 468 16, 700 1,093 996 1, 117 37, 608 15, 169 1, 177 1,878 1,066 1,034 2, 140 36, 143 14, 046 1, 091 36, 103 13, 869 1, 190 1, 927 1,076 37, 409 15, 176 1, 107 1, 136 1,070 33, 864 20, 979 980 1, 086 1,027 37, 566 17, 379 946 1, 065 1,025 37, 483 17, 543 1, 073 917 968 35, 819 18, 557 951 893 948 35, 844 19, 305 1, 020 1,068 1, 020 37, 537 17, 378 967 1,096 940 5 5 37, 983 18, 000 962 987 966 Usually parttime 4 adjusted 1,308 1,396 1,316 1,503 1,385 1,363 1, 277 1, 237 1, 192 1, 213 1, 130 1,254 1,258 1,149 4 Primarily 6 includes persons who could find only part-time work. Average hours worked: usually full-time, 23.5; usually part-time, 18.6. Source: Department ©f Labor. 11 UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In April, insured unemployment under State programs averaged 328,000 lower than a year earlier. The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate declined slightly to 2.7 percent. MILLIONS OF PERSONS MILLIONS OF PERSONS WEEKLY INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT tSTATE PROGRAMS} 1971 I 1972 JAN. FEB. MAR. APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Period A 11 programas Total Insured unem- benefits Insured Covered ploypaid unememploy- ment (milploy(weekly ment lions ment averof dolage) lars) 2, 298. 6 4, 179. 1 5, 498. 2 5, 000. 0 683.2 516.4 472.7 423.0 402. 0 405. 3 313.5 311.4 338.7 372. 1 425. 3 432. 9 481. 6 402. 9 Stiite progra ms Initial claims Exhaustions Insurec1 unemploymen t as percent of covered employment SeasonUnad- ally adjusted justed Weekly iiverage, t lousands 200 16 1, 101 296 25 1,805 2, 150 295 38 265 37 1, 850 242 2,279 40 2,005 237 43 1,740 216 39 250 1, 636 36 321 1,823 35 1,564 213 33 29 1, 388 190 1,357 214 26 1,507 253 28 324 1, 801 29 2, 124 331 31 2,069 247 29 1,900 31 213 216 29 1, 677 1,743 1,686 1, 682 1,597 NOTE.—For definitions and coverage, see the 1967 Supplement to Economic Indicators. DEC COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Thou sands 1969 595 999 1, 177 1970 59, 526 2,070 1971 *> 59, 375 2, 313 1972 " 2, 185 1972: Mar*p 2,922 Apr 2,430 May v 2, 105 June *>__ __ _ 1,951 July*__ 2, 087 Aug" _ __ 1,763 Sept* 1,554 Oct * 1,511 Nov* „__ . 1,691 Dec* 1, 993 1973: Jan » .„ 2, 332 Feb" 2,250 Mar v * 2,077 Apr 1, 836 Week ended: 1973: Apr 7 1,907 14 1,846 21 1, 840 28 v*> _ 1, 754 May 5 __ 12 NOV. 244 213 211 195 214 Source: Department of Labor. Per<sent 2. 1 3.4 4. 1 3.5 4. 3 3. 8 3.3 3. 1 3. 4 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.7 3. 3 3.8 3.7 3.4 2. 9 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.7 Benefi ts paid Total Average weekly lions of check dollars) (dollars) (mil- 2, 127. 9 3, 848. 5 4, 957. 0 4, 550. 0 3.5 628. 9 3. 6 3. 7 3. 6 3. 7 3.4 472.9 3. 4 280.3 3.4 3.3 3. 0 2. 7 2. 7 2.8 2. 7 429. 2 382. 1 364.3 363.0 280. 1 307. 2 342.2 392. 7 399. 1 438. 9 374. 5 46.17 50. 34 54.02 57.00 57. 21 56.90 56.32 55.23 55. 75 55.53 60. 16 56.95 57.59 58. 10 57. 09 57. 13 57. 16 57. 21 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 109,000 (seasonally adjusted) In April, following increases of 208,000 in March and 480,000 in February. Since April 1972, the number of payroll jobs has grown by 2.8 million, with factory employment accounting for nearly 1 million of the increase. MILLIONS OF WAGE MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) AND SALARY WORKERS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED! (ENLARGED SCALE) 72 S*~ —^1 ^^ ~~** —WlP—*~— - -*"1 ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 68 14 WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE 12 ; 44 ^ NONMANUFACTUR ING (PRIVATE) ^""" ^ -.•"«*"*"""*'""" - 40 SERVICES " DURABLE MANUFACTURING 36 10 f" AMANUFACTURING 20 \ """"x**" NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING fc ^ | •tnim^ iWlli ra,,,..u««'«.«.«'« " cGOVERNMENT CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION 12 , , , . ,1 , i , ii 1970 1971 1 1 ! 1 ! 1 I 1 1 ! 1 t 1 ! i i 1 I 1 ! ! IK 1972 1973 " 1970 1972 1971 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1973 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers;l seasonally adjusted] N onmanufacturini ? (private) Manufa( sturing (]private) Period Total Total 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1972: Mar _ _ Apr— _ May__ June-July.. Aug.Sept— Oct Nov.. Dec__ 1973: Jan__ Feb— Mar3 p. Apr *- 65, 857 67, 915 70, 284 70, 593 70, 645 72, 764 72, Oil 72, 246 72, 592 72, 699 72, 661 72, 984 73, 176 73, 589 73, 899 74, 026 74, 245 74, 725 74, 933 75, 042 19, 447 19, 781 20, 167 19, 349 18, 529 18, 933 18, 685 18, 790 18, 892 18, 931 18, 861 18, 930 19, 029 19, 219 19, 324 19, 419 19, 469 19, 578 19, 627 19, 740 NonDurable durable goods goods 11, 439 11, 626 11, 895 11, 195 10, 565 10, 884 10, 673 10, 755 10, 837 10, 857 10, 843 10, 897 10, 970 11, 127 11, 203 11, 281 11, 326 11,413 11, 448 11, 547 8 008 8 155 8 272 8 154 7 964 8 049 8 012 8 035 8 055 8 074 8 018 8 033 8 059 8 092 8 121 8 138 8 143 8 165 8 179 8 193 Total Con- Trans- Whole- Finance, insursale tract portation ance, Services Federal State Mining conand and and and retail strue- public local real tion utilities trade estate 35, 012 36, 288 37, 915 38, 709 39, 261 40, 541 40, 145 40, 238 40, 426 40, 544 40, 521 40, 737 40, 782 40, 973 41, 114 41, 103 41, 295 41,610 41, 743 41, 689 5 Includes ail full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural •establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 10, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they Gover nment 613 606 619 623 602 607 614 605 604 600 599 602 606 610 609 607 610 613 611 603 3, 208 3,285 3,435 3, 381 3,411 3,521 3, 512 3,493 3, 535 3, 550 3,489 3, 544 3, 551 3,568 3, 524 3, 452 3,502 3; 594 3, 609 3,550 4, 261 4,310 4, 429 4,493 4, 442 4, 495 4,487 4, 481 4, 490 4, 491 4, 473 4,478 4, 499 4,540 4, 549 4, 558 4, 574 4, 580 4,589 4, 591 13, 606 14, 084 14,639 14, 914 15, 142 15, 683 15, 508 15, 561 15, 632 15, 682 15, 692 15, 758 15, 794 15, 835 15, 954 15, 946 15, 989 16, 127 16, 215 16, 188 3, 225 3,382 3, 564 3, 688 3, 796 3,927 3, 885 3,892 3, 913 3,931 3,927 3,936 3, 953 3,969 3, 981 3, 991 3, 999 4, 014 4,024 4,031 10, 099 10, 623 11, 229 11, 612 11, 869 12, 309 12, 139 12, 206 12, 252 12, 290 12, 341 12, 419 12, 379 12, 451 12, 497 12, 549 12, 621 12, 682 12, 695 12, 726 2,719 2,737 2, 758 2,705 2,664 2,650 2, 667 2, 664 2, 665 2,646 2,621 2,618 2,624 2, 630 2, 642 2,652 2,637 2,632 2,634 2,626 8,679 9, 109 9,444 9,830 10, 191 10, 640 10, 514 10, 554 10, 609 10, 578 10, 658 10, 699 10, 741 10, 767 10, 819 10, 852 10, 844 10, 905 10, 929 10, 987 are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. Source: Department of Labor. 13 WEEKLY HOURS OF WORK - SELECTED INDUSTRIES The average workweek (seasonally adjusted) for production workers in both the private nonfarm sector as a whole and the manufacturing subsector increased by 0.2 hour in April. The factory workweek was at its highest level since 1966. HOURS PER WEEK {SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) HOURS PER WEEK {SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 46 46 MANUFACTIJR1NG TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL PRIVATE AA 44 A*) 42 40 40 38 •^P r ^—~^i ^~*^~ "—^ 1A 36 1 1 11 1 i?1 34 1970 1972 1971 34 /y t i i i I i i.f t ! 42 42 40 Af\ 38 *3Q Jo 36 •}£ 34 •3* 32 •>•) 1 1 ! 1970 1971 30 1,1 f t I / H I l.t 1 I I.I | I.I V 1972 1971 i t i r i 1 i i i i.i 1972 1 t 1 H t 1 t I t IK I - ! I. f . I.I.I 1 1 1 1 I . f . f . 1 . 1 . f . 1 , 1 , ! < 1 IK H " 1973 RETAIL TRAC)E CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION 30 1 ! I.I 1 1 1 I I t 1 1970 1973 1970 . . . ... I . , .1 i .. 1972 1971 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF IABOR 1973 " COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 1 [Average hours per week ] Period Total nonagricultural2 private Manufacturing Contract construction Retail trade 3 Total nonagricultural2 private Unad justed 1964 1965___ 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1972: Mar. Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov— Dec 1973: Jan Feb Mar*v Apr _ _ _ 1 38.7 38. 8 38. 6 38. 0 37. 8 37.7 37. 1 37.0 37.2 36.9 37.0 36. 9 37.4 37. 6 37.6 37.4 37.3 37.1 37.2 36.6 36.8 37.0 37. 1 40. 7 41. 2 41. 3 40.6 40.7 40. 6 39. 8 39.9 40.6 40. 3 40. 5 40. 5 40.9 40. 4 40.6 41. 0 40.8 41. 0 41.2 40. 0 40. 6 40.8 40.8 Data relate to production workers or nonsupervisory employees. *Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 13. 14 Manufacturing Contract construction Retail trade 3 Seasonally7 adjusted 37. 0 36. 6 35. 9 35. 3 37. 2 37. 4 37. 6 37.7 37.4 37. 9 37.4 37. 3 37.0 36. 8 36. 6 36. 8 37.6 37.9 38.2 38. 2 38.2 36.0 35. 2 34.8 34.9 36.6 37.0 347 34. 2 33.8 33. 7 33.6 33.2 33.3 33.3 34. 1 34.7 34. 7 33.6 33. 3 33.2 33.9 32.9 32.9 33.0 33. 1 8 37. 1 37.3 37.0 37. 1 37. 2 37. 1 37. 3 37. S 37.2 37.0 36. 9 37.2 37.2 37.4 Includes eating and drinking places. Source: Department of Labor. 40. 4 40.8 40.5 40.7 40.6 40.6 40. 8 40. 7 40. 9 40. 7 40. 3 40.9 40.9 4L1 37.2 36. 7 36. 7 36.9 37.0 37. 1 37. 1 37.6 37.0 35.6 36. 1 36. 1 37.0 37. 1 33.6 S3. 7r-t 00 oo. t 33.8 33.7 S3. 6 33. 5 33.5 33.5 33. 7 38.4 33. 5 33.4 S3. 5 AVERAGE HOURLY AND WEEKLY EARNINGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES Average hourly earnings of private nonfarm production workers increased 2 cents in April to $3.82 (not seasonally adjusted) and were 5.8 percent above a year earlier. In manufacturing, the rise over the year amounted to 6.6 percent, but after adjusting for overtime and interindustry employment shifts the increase was 5.4 percent. Average weekly earnings rose by $1.1 2 to $141.72 and were 6.1 percent above a year earlier. DOLLARS DOLLARS AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS 240 6.00 , CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION 5.00 200 4.00 160 TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL PRIVATE 120 3.00 -TOTAL NONAGRICULTURALPRIVATE -.—*— T RETAIL TRADE -2.00 80 RETAIL TRADE RETv 1970 1973 1972 1971 1970 1971 1972 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1973 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [For production workers or nonsupervisory employees] Average h ourly earni ngs— curre nt dollars Average ^weekly earalings— curr ent dollars Period 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1972: Mar Apr__ _ _ May June__ _ _ July Aug _ Sept Oct Nov _ Dec 1973: Jan Feb Mar » Apr v 1 Also includes other 2 Includes eating and 3 Total nonagricultural private 1 $2. 36 2.45 2. 56 2.68 2. 85 3. 04 3. 22 3. 43 3.65 3.58 3. 61 3. 62 3. 63 3. 64 3. 66 3. 72 3.74 3.74 3.74 3.77 3. 78 3. 80 3. 82 Manufacturing $2. 53 2. 61 2. 72 2. 83 3.01 3. 19 3. 36 3. 56 3.81 3. 74 3. 76 3. 78 3. 79 3.78 3.80 3. 86 3.86 3.89 3. 95 3.98 3.97 3. 98 4. 01 Contract construction $3. 55 3. 70 3. 89 4. 11 4.41 4. 79 5. 24 5. 69 6.06 5. 94 5. 96 6. 01 5. 94 5.96 6.03 6. 15 6.22 6. 23 6.32 6.42 6. 31 6.28 6. 30 Retail trade 2 $1. 75 1. 82 1. 91 2. 01 2. 16 2.30 2. 44 2.57 2.70 2. 67 2.68 2. 69 2. 69 2. 70 2. 70 2. 73 2. 74 2. 75 2. 75 2. 78 2. 80 2. 81 2. 82 private industry groups shown on p. 13. drinking places. Adjusted to exclude the effects of overtime and interindustry shifts. 95-462°—73- Total nonagricultural private l Manufacturing Contract construction Retail trade 2 $91. 33 95. 06 98. 82 101. 84 107. 73 114. 61 119. 46 126. 91 135. 78 132. 10 133. 57 133. 58 135. 76 136. 86 137. 62 139. 13 139. 50 138. 75 139. 13 137. 98 139. 10 140. 60 141. 72 $102. 97 107. 53 112. 34 114. 90 122. 51 129. 51 133. 73 142. 04 154. 69 150. 72 152. 28 153. 09 155, 01 152. 71 154. 28 158. 26 157. 49 159. 49 162. 74 159. 20 161. 18 162. 38 163. 61 $132. 06 138. 38 146. 26 154. 95 164. 93 181. 54 195. 98 212. 24 224. 22 218. 59 218. 14 221. 17 223. 34 225. 88 230. 35 234. 93 237. 60 224. 28 222. 46 223. 42 220. 22 229. 85 233. 10 $64. 75 66.61 68. 57 70. 95 74. 95 78. 66 82. 47 86. 61 90.72 88. 64 89.24 89. 58 91.73 93. 69 93. 69 91.73 91. 24 91. 30 93.23 91.46 92. 12 92.73 93. 34 Manufe icturing indu stries Adjusted Average weekly hourly earnearnings, ings, ilyo? n^T — 1967 i nn s dollars 4 90. 3 $110. 84 92. 6 113. 79 95. 7 115. 58 100. 0 114. 90 106. 2 117. 57 112. 6 117. 95 119. 6 114. 99 127.5 117. 10 135.4 123. 46 133. 5 121. 55 134. 1 122. 51 134. 6 122. 77 134. 7 124. 01 135. 0 121. 68 135. 5 122. 74 136. 7 125. 40 137. 0 124. 40 137.8 125. 68 139.2 127. 84 140. 1 124. 67 140. 1 125. 33 140. 6 1258 10 141. 3 125. 18 4 Earnings in current dollars divided by the consumer price index. Source: Department of Labor. 15 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Industrial production (seasonally adjusted) increased 1.0 percent further in April following a 0.6 percent rise in March. The April index was 9.0 percent above a year earlier. Index, 1967=100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 160 Index, 1967=100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 140 1970 1973 SOURCE* BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period Total industrial production 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972" 1972: Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov._ Dec 1973: Jan Feb Mar p* Apr 81.7 89. 2 97. 9 100. 0 105. 7 110.7 106. 6 106. 8 114.4 111. 2 112. 8 113. 2 113.4 113. 9 115. 1 116. 1 117. 5 118. 5 119. 2 119. 9 121. 1 121. 8 123. 0 [1967= 100, seasonally adjusted] Industry Market Final produ cts Mimufacturi *g InterConMining Utilities mediate MateEquipNonrials Durable Total Total sumer durable ment products goods 81. 2 89. 1 98. 3 100. 0 105.7 110. 5 105. 2 105. 2 113.2 109. 7 111. 8 112. 3 112. 5 113. 2 114. 1 115.2 116. 6 117. 4 118. 5 118. 9 120. 6 121. 5 122. 8 79. 0 88. 5 99. 0 100. 0 105. 5 110.0 101.4 99. 4 107.4 103.4 105. 8 106. 3 106.8 107.7 108.4 109. 7 111.4 112. 4 114. 1 114. 3 116.2 116. 9 118.6 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 16 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 84 4 90. 0 97. 3 100.0 106. 0 111. 1 110. 6 113. 5 121.5 118. 8 120. 3 120.8 121.3 121. 0 122. 6 123.3 124. 3 124. 7 125. 0 125.4 126.9 128. 2 128. 8 91. 1 93.9 98. 4 100. 0 103. 9 107. 2 109.7 107. 0 108.2 108.5 109. 0 107.9 108.2 107. 9 107. 7 110. 2 110.0 110. 1 108.3 108.4 109. 1 107.8 107. 1 81. 9 86.9 93. 6 100. 0 109. 4 119. 5 128. 3 133. 9 143.5 139.7 140. 2 141. 1 141. 0 142. 5 144. 1 145.6 146. 6 148.7 148. 6 151.9 150.4 150.9 153. 0 79. 6 86. 8 96. 1 100. 0 105. 8 109. 0 104. 5 104. 7 111.2 108.2 109. 8 110.2 110. 1 110.2 111. 3 112. 4 113.9 115. 0 115. 3 116.4 117. 3 117.9 119.2 86. 8 93. 0 98. 6 100.0 106.6 111. 1 110. 3 115. 7 123. 1 119. 6 122. 0 122.2 122.1 122.0 123. 1 124.4 125. 5 126. 8 126. 7 127.5 128.2 129. 1 130.4 70. 1 78. 7 93. 0 100.0 104. 7 106. 1 96. 3 89.4 94.6 92.4 92.7 93.4 93. 3 93.4 94.8 95.8 97. 3 98. 5 99. 4 101. 0 102. 2 102. 3 103. 5 87.3 93. 0 99. 2 100. 0 105. 7 112. 0 111. 7 112. 5 120.4 117.3 117.3 119. 3 119. 1 120. 5 121. 2 121. 7 123.4 125.9 125. 7 126.5 127.7 127.5 128.3 82.6 91. 0 99.8 100. 0 105. 7 112. 4 107. 7 107.4 116.5 113. 1 115. 0 115.6 116. 1 116.8 117.4 119. 1 120.3 120. 6 122.0 121. 7 123.9 124. 7 126. 3 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED MANUFACTURES Production gains in April were widespread among durable and nondurable manufactures (seasonally adjusted). Index, 1967=100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 140 Index, 1967=100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED} 130 1C A 160 / ^^4 LUMBER AND PRODUCTS 120 1 AC\ 110 •son 100 120 CHEMICALS, PETROLEU M, ^/ f AND RUBBER \ ff /^^^ 90 80 \I +*v"+**+^ TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT I } II I I I 1 I I f I I I II I I M I I I I II ! I I I M I I 100 ! Tf 1 11M M 1 PAPER AND PRINTING ^^/ ^<-*S \ ^ *\ ^ *— ^ 1 1 f t li! | M.I 1970 1970 ^ X^^^S^/^A^* 1973 1 1971 i M ii1 i r f ff 1972 1970 s~ 1 ( f M 1 f f f M 1973 1973 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted] Durafc>le manufoictures Period Primary metals Ncm durable manufactu res FabriTranspor- Lumber Textiles, Paper cated Machin- tation and apparel, and ery metal and equipprodprintproducts ing ment leather ucts Chemicals, Foods petroleum, and tobacco rubber 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 95. 7 104 0 108. 8 100. 0 103. 2 114. 1 106. 9 100. 9 113. 1 83. 3 92. 6 100. 5 100.0 106. 3 113. 6 109. 4 107. 4 113.4 74. 3 84. 1 98. 6 100. 0 101. 9 106.8 100. 3 96. 2 105.3 79. 6 91. 3 101. 2 100.0 109.7 107. 6 90.4 92. 9 98.8 91. 0 94 7 98. 4 100.0 104. 8 108. 6 106. 3 113. 9 122. 2 91. 9 97. 8 101. 7 100. 0 104. 9 105. 9 100. 2 100. 7 106.4 84 5 90. 5 98. 9 100. 0 104 2 109. 1 107. 8 107. 8 115.4 75.9 83.8 94 1 100. 0 109. 6 118. 4 118. 2 124 7 137. 6 90. 6 92. 6 97. 0 100. 0 103. 6 107. 5 110. 8 113. 7 117. 4 1972: Mar Apr_ _ May 105. 110. 113. 111. 114. 113.6 117. 4 119. 3 120. 2 126. 6 110. 1 110. 8 111. 9 112. 3 114. 1 114. 4 115. 2 117. 5 118.8 118. 6 100.3 102. 6 103. 0 104.8 104. 8 107. 1 108.3 109. 6 110.4 113. 1 95.9 100.4 98.9 97.4 98. 2 98. 4 99.8 102. 1 105.0 105.9 119. 6 119. 9 119. 1 121. 8 121. 5 121. 1 122. 8 128. 1 128. 2 124. 3 103. 7 106. 1 104. 9 105. Q 104. 8 106. 8 108.0 109. 1 109. 1 110.7 112. 6 112. 3 114. 1 115. 1 115. 2 116. 4 115. 3 118.6 120.9 120.6 133.4 136. 1 137.5 137. 1 137.4 139. 9 141. 1 141.6 140.6 141. 5 116. 3 117. 6 117. 1 117. 6 116.8 117. 6 118. 8 117. 8 118.9 118. 3 120. 6 122.4 122. 7 125. 7 119. 9 122. 5 123. 6 125.0 113. 114. 115. 117. 106. 7 110. 0 110. 3 111.2 126. 8 128. 5 128. 7 107. 7 109. 7 111. 5 113. 2 119. 121. 121. 121. 145. 2 145. 6 148. 6 149. 8 118. 2 120. 3 119. 7 120. 3 1972*> June__ _ July Aug.__ _. Sept _ Oct__ Nov__ Dec_ 1973: Jan__ Feb Mar v_ Apr v _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1 2 5 9 9 7 3 9 7 9 9 8 3 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 WEEKLY INDICATORS OF PRODUCTION Production of steel rose in April. Most other weekly indicators of production declined. MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS MILLIONS OF TONS STEEL 1971 n 1972 ,< i i I i ! i I i .1 1 1 I j i i I i i i i i 1 1 ! i M i ly i i I i i i i I i i i I i i i I i i i J F M A M J J ~ A S O N D BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS 40 ELECTRIC POWER 6 1/y i l l I I I 1 i i i 1 I |ii ! i i t 1 t i i illli i t l i i i I i i t i B i t i I i ill I i i i J F M A M J J A S O K D THOUSANDS CARS AND TRUCKS 30 n l t . i f . i i 1 1 1 1 t I r i i I 1 1 1 1 11 i i f i t i I . i i ! . 1 1 . I 1 1 . I . i . 1 25 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J SOURCES: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, AND WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS Steel p roduced Index Thousands (1967= of net tons 100) Period Weekly average: 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 9 1972: Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec___ _ 1973: Jan Feb Mar Apr 9 _ Week ended: 1973: Apr 7 14 21 28 _ May 5 12 9 19 * includes data for Alaska. Not charted. 2 18 _ _ A S O N D COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Electric Bituminous Freight Paperboarc Car s and tnicks power coal mined loaded produced assemb led (thoiisands) distributed (thousands (thousands (thousands of short (millions of Total Cars Trucks of tons) of cars) kilowattr-hours) tons) l 2, 572 2,440 2, 515 2,709 2,522 2, 310 2, 549 2,616 2, 701 2,694 2, 559 2, 340 2,447 2,550 2,631 2,657 2, 687 2, 793 2,906 2, 954 2, 978 105. 4 100.0 103. 1 111. 0 103. 4 94. 7 104.5 107.2 110.7 110. 4 104. 9 95. 9 100. 3 104.5 107.9 108.9 110. 2 114. 5 119. 1 121. 1 122. 0 21, 971 23, 169 25, 244 27, 588 29, 317 30, 923 33, 540 31, 692 31, 372 31, 402 34, 174 35, 905 36, 374 34, 360 32, 547 33, 674 35, 264 35, 861 35, 800 33, 643 33, 164 10, 267 10, 627 10, 485 10, 779 11, 595 10, 619 11, 346 11, 546 11, 651 11, 961 10, 878 9,428 11, 582 11, 404 11, 498 11, 211 9, 964 10, 598 11, 059 11, 116 10, 945 570 540 543 543 522 486 501 495 507 515 514 459 521 524 551 524 471 491 509 515 518 446 439 479 507 489 501 548 558 549 569 558 517 566 529 576 564 498 512 583 593 584 199. 3 172.9 207.6 195. 8 158. 9 204. 8 217. 2 225. 1 249. 5 238.4 230. 7 120. 5 152. 8 225. 5 257.6 257. 1 202. 5 261. 3 277. 6 276. 1 262. 0 165.4 142. 4 170.1 158. 1 125. 9 165. 0 169.6 175.4 194. 3 185. 5 180. 9 93. 1 116. 9 180.9 203. 1 200. 9 157. 7 201. 5 213. 3 212. 1 200. 8 33.9 30. 5 37.5 37. 8 33. 0 39. 8 47.5 49. 7 55. 1 52. 9 49. 8 27.4 35. 9 44. 6 54. 5 56. 3 44. 7 59. 8 64. 3 64. 1 61. 2 2, 967 3, 002 2, 995 2,987 2,981 2, 929 2 3, 015 121. 6 123. 0 122. 8 122.4 122. 2 120. 1 123. 6 33, 479 33, 957 32, 425 32, 793 32, 857 33, 495 10, 050 11, 110 11, 075 11, 545 11, 520 2 11.515 511 521 511 528 546 547 584 576 601 575 583 572 274. 8 279.9 211. 5 281. 7 274. 1 281. 8 210. 8 215. 5 161. 6 215. 3 210. 7 215. 0 63.9 64.4 49. 9 66.4 63. 5 66. 7 Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, Association of American Railroads, American Paper Institute, and Ward's Automotive Reports. NEW CONSTRUCTION According to preliminary estimates, expenditures for new construction (seasonally adjusted) rose 2 percent in March. Both public and private construction contributed to the gain. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 20 20 60 60 40 40 20 20 1967 1973 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 _ 1972 9 Total new construction expenditures 77.5 86. 6 93. 4 94. 0 109.4 123.5 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS TD ' 4Jrrivate Total 52. 0 59.0 65.4 65. 9 79.5 93.3 Resic ential CommerNew cial and Other housing Total l industrial units Bi lions of dol ars 19. 0 25.6 2e . 4 24. 0 13. 8 147 30.6 33. 2 25.9 16. 2 16.0 24 3 16.3 17. 8 31. 9 34. 9 43. 1 19.4 17.0 54.0 18.1 21.2 44.6 Federal, State, and local 25. 5 27. 6 28. 0 28. 1 29.9 30.2 Feb *__ __ Mar *L_ 120. 8 121. 8 122. 9 120.4 122. 1 121.0 119. 8 122. 9 124.8 128.9 126.3 132. 0 135. 7 135. 5 138. 2 88.6 90. 9 92.5 91. 5 92. 3 92.4 91. 6 93. 7 94.2 96.0 97.1 97. 9 101. 1 102. 7 103.6 49. 6 51. 9 53. 1 52. 7 52. 3 52. 9 53.5 54. 3 55.5 56.3 57. 1 57.4 58. 0 59. 7 60. 1 40.4 42. 8 44. 0 43. 6 43. 3 43.7 44. 0 44 7 45. 9 46.7 47.5 47. 6 48. 3 49. 8 50. 0 'Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. 2 F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value Index and beginning 1971 for floor space. 18. 2 17. 9 18. 0 18. 1 18. 9 18.4 17.6 18. 2 17. 9 18. 1 17.9 18. 5 20. 4 20. 0 20. 6 100. 0 113. 2 123. 7 123. 1 145.4 165.3 Seasonally adjusted Seasonally / adjusted atinual rates 1972: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June __ __ July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec _ 1973: Jan Constructio n contracts 2 CommerTotal value cial and index, industrial (1967 = floor space 100) (millions of square feet) 20.8 21. 0 21.4 20.7 21. 1 21. 1 20.5 21. 1 20.8 21.6 22.0 22. 0 22. 6 22. 9 22.9 32. 2 30. 9 30.4 28. 9 29. 8 28.6 28.3 29. 2 30. 6 32. 8 29. 3 34. 1 34 6 32. 9 34. 6 160 155 159 167 165 154 155 180 187 171 177 163 181 191 193 694 779 883 743 727 858 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 716 801 800 786 983 846 813 908 896 895 992 946 1S031 1,037 1,012 Sources: Department of Commerce and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. 19 NEW HOUSING STARTS AND APPLICATIONS FOR FINANCING Private housing starts fell 6.5 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis. Starts had dipped slightly in February and declined 8.5 percent in March. MILLIONS OF UNITS MILLIONS OF UNITS 3.0 3.0 1.0 1967 1968 1969 1970 1973 1971 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT, AND VETERANS ADMINISTRATION [Thousands of units] Hou sing star ts Total private Total and private public (includ(including ing farm) farm) Period 1, 321. 9 1, 545. 4 1, 499. 5 1, 469. 0 2, 084. 5 2, 378. 5 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972*> 1972: Mar Apr May June__ _ _ July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1973: Jan Feb___ Mar 9 Apr » __ 1 2 _ 205. 213. 227. 226. 207. 231. 204. 218. 187. 152. 147. 139. 200. 203. 8 2 9 2 5 0 4 2 1 7 3 5 0 2 Private Total (includingI farm) Total 1, 291. 6 1, 291. 6 1, 507. 6 1, 507. 6 1, 466. 8 1, 466. 8 1, 433. 6 1, 433. 6 2, 052. 2 2, 052. 2 2, 356. 6 2, 356. 6 203. 9 211. 6 225. 8 223. 1 206. 5 228. 6 203. 0 216. 5 185.7 150. 5 146. 6 138. 0 199. 0 202. 9 2, 313 2, 204 2, 318 2, 315 2,244 2,424 2,426 2,446 2,395 2, 369 2,497 2, 456 2,248 2, 103 Gover nment home p rograms (noni"arm) Two or FHA* VA more units 141. 9 52. 5 843.9 447. 7 899.4 608. 2 147. 7 56. 1 810. 6 656. 2 153. 6 51. 2 812. 9 620. 7 233. 5 61. 0 94. 0 1, 151. 0 901. 2 301. 2 1, 309. 2 1, 047. 2 198.4 104. 0 Seasona lly ad jus ted annu al 1, 310 1,003 260 123 989 221 104 1, 215 197 1, 308 100 1,011 1,032 1,283 182 99 1,319 925 107 176 1,373 179 1,051 103 1, 382 1,045 175 106 1,315 1,131 149 98 1,324 92 1,071 125 1, 162 106 1,207 86 1,450 1,047 87 96 1,084 111 1, 372 105 92 101 1,247 1,001 912 74 100 1, 191 One unit Units are for 1- to 4-family housing Authorized by issuance of local building pei•mit: in 14,0' iO permit-issijing places beginning 1973; 13,000 for 1967-7 2; 12,000 for 1<)63-66; and 10 ,000 prior to 1963. 20 Propos sd home constriiction s New private housing units authorized 2 1, 141. 0 1, 353. 4 1, 323. 7 1, 351. 5 1, 924. 6 2, 130. 4 rates 2, 007 1, 991 1,955 2, 121 2, 108 2,237 2,265 2,216 2, 139 2,377 2,254 2,221 2, 102 1, 827 Applica- Requests tions for for VA FHA appraiscommitals ments 1 167. 2 168. 9 187. 6 315. 0 366. 8 225. 2 124. 3 131. 7 138.2 143. 7 217. 9 209.4 264 227 222 221 224 207 166 147 162 131 124 100 93 68 209 243 198 219 200 202 192 189 207 194 222 217 201 169 3 Units repres en ted by nlortgage ap plications or ap praisal requ ssts for new hoine construct!on. g ources: Dep artment of Commerce , Department of Housing and Urban De ^elopment, a nd Veterans Administr ation. BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—TOTAL AND TRADE The $1.4 billion (seasonally adjusted) rise in business inventories in March was smaller than the increases in January and February. Retail sales fell in April according to advance reports, following four large monthly increases. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS {SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) RETAIL TRADE (ENLARGED SCALE) 25 -DURABLE GOODS STORES 20 INVENTORIES 15 SALES V ^«* •»••* 10 120 100 NONDURABLE GOODS STORES INVENTORIES 60 30 40 25 20 20 1973 1970 1970 1972 1971 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total Imsiness 1 R<3tail Wholesale Sales 2 Period Sales 2 1965 80, 276 1966 87, 178 1967 89, 698 1968 97, 100 1969 103, 104 104, 407 1970 1971 111, 931 1972 124, 571 1972: Feb 118, 077 Mar _ 120, 669 Apr 121, 685 Mav__ _ 122, 814 June _ 122, 283 July... _ . 123, 371 Aug 126, 458 Sept. 127, 056 Oct 129, 610 Nov _ _ 131, 478 Dec 132, 766 1973: Jan 136, 761 Feb 138, 788 Mar ».. 141, 135 Apr »„. 1 2 The Inventories 3 Sales 2 120, 900 136, 729 145, 108 155, 336 166, 694 174, 942 182, 842 193, 479 183, 826 184, 263 184, 816 185, 953 186, 439 186, 884 188, 409 189, 759 190, 974 192, 318 193, 479 195, 657 197, 504 198, 886 __ 15, 595 16, 979 17, 099 18, 329 19, 726 20, 554 22, 280 24,850 23, 533 23, 884 24, 170 24, 260 24, 230 24, 394 25, 137 25, 407 25, 779 26, 212 26, 962 27, 755 28, 423 29, 115 term "business" also includes manufacturing (see page 22). Monthly average for year and total for month, s Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. 1973 Inventories 3 IMillions of 18, 274 20, 691 21, 557 22, 528 24, 363 26, 604 28, 916 31, 732 29, 181 29, 174 29, 574 29, 729 29, 641 30, 056 30, 164 30, 657 31, 032 31, 289 31, 732 32, 582 33, 051 33, 101 NonDurable durable goods goods stores stores dollars, seasonally a d justed 23, 677 7,849 15, 828 25, 330 8, 192 17, 138 26, 151 8,348 17, 803 28, 490 9, 268 19, 222 29, 824 9, 626 20, 197 9, 524 21, 770 31, 294 34,071 10, 985 23, 086 37, 365 12, 472 24, 893 35, 345 11, 457 23, 888 36, 450 12, 087 24, 363 36, 296 11, 976 24, 320 37, 141 12, 280 24, 861 36, 822 12, 253 24, 569 37, 342 12, 468 24, 874 37, 969 12, 842 25, 127 37, 746 12, 614 25, 132 39, 106 13, 168 25, 938 38, 713 13, 173 25, 540 39, 417 13, 640 25, 777 40, 707 14, 234 26, 473 41, 242 14, 405 26, 837 41, 939 14, 628 27, 311 41, 328 14, 356 26, 972 Total Inventories> 3 Total Durable goods stores 34, 405 38, 073 38, 952 41, 973 45, 376 46, 626 52, 261 54, 700 52, 484 52, 639 52, 814 53, 402 53, 293 52, 940 53, 107 53, 661 53, 934 54, 658 54, 700 55, 526 56, 039 56, 197 15, 253 17, 258 17, 277 19, 167 20, 647 20, 345 23, 808 24, 442 23, 679 23, 674 23, 740 23, 915 23, 665 23, 194 23, 037 23, 608 23, 675 24, 235 24, 442 24, 472 24, 638 24, 538 Nondurable goods stores 19, 152 20, 815 21, 675 22, 806 24, 729 26, 281 28, 453 30, 258 28,805 28, 965 29, 074 29, 487 29, 628 29, 746 30, 070 30, 053 30, 259 30, 423 30, 258 31, 054 31, 401 31, 659 Source: Department of Commerce. 21 AND NEW ORDERS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, Manufacturers' shipments, new orders, and inventories (seasonally adjusted) rose in March. The ratio of inventories to shipments remained low. According to advance reports, new orders received by durable goods manufacturers fell in April while shipments rose. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS {SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS 110 MANUFACTURERS' INVENTORIES 100 TOTAL 90 80 DURABLE GOODS 70 60 40 MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS 50 NONDURABLE GOODS 30 40 20 30 1970 1973 1970 1971 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Total 1973 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufac turers' sh ipments l Manufad burers' inv entories 2 Period 1972 NonDurable durable goods goods Total NonDurable durable goods goods Ma nufacture rs' new orde;rs l Total Durat>le goods NonCapital durable goods Total industries, goods nondefense Manufacturers' mventoryshipments3 ratio Millions of dollars seasonal y ad juste d 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972__ 1972: Feb Mar Apr May June July_ Aug Sept Oct 44, 869 46, 449 50, 282 53, 555 52, 560 55, 580 62, 356 59, 199 60, 335 61, 219 61, 413 61, 231 _ _ 61, 635 63, 352 63, 903 64, 725 Nov 66, 553 Dec 66, 387 1973:Jan___ _ _ 68, 299 Feb 69, 123 Mar p^ 70, 081 Apr 24, 633 25, 212 27, 694 29, 459 28, 061 29, 886 34, 106 32, 041 32, 683 33, 581 33, 705 33, 129 33, 825 34, 710 35, 037 36, 086 36, 750 36, 378 38, 056 38, 336 38, 614 39, 382 20, 236 21, 236 22, 588 24, 096 24, 499 25, 694 28, 250 27, 158 27, 652 27, 638 27, 708 28, 102 27, 810 28, 642 28, 866 28, 639 29, 803 30, 009 30, 243 30, 787 31, 467 1 Monthly average for year and total for month. 2 Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. s 77, 965 84, 599 90, 835 96, 955 101, 712 101, 665 107, 047 102, 161 102, 450 102, 428 102, 822 103, 505 103, 888 105, 138 105, 441 106, 008 106, 371 107, 047 107, 549 108, 414 109, 588 49, 818 54, 893 59, 053 63, 254 66, 829 65, 874 70, 144 66, 422 66, 604 66, 575 67, 035 67, 427 67, 645 68, 542 68, 834 69, 330 69, 641 70, 144 70, 632 71, 117 71, 940 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly 22 28, 147 29, 706 31, 782 33, 701 34, 883 35, 791 36, 903 35, 739 35, 846 35, 853 35, 787 36, 078 36, 243 36, 596 36, 607 36, 678 36, 730 36, 903 36, 917 37, 297 37, 648 45, 944 46, 763 50, 267 53, 645 51, 683 55, 473 63, 368 59, 792 61, 097 61, 685 62, 012 63, 734 62, 270 64, 409 65, 776 65, 454 67, 587 67, 668 69, 838 71, 042 73, 993 25, 720 25, 526 27, 690 29, 548 27, 162 29, 768 35, 044 32, 466 33, 328 34, 005 34, 302 35, 613 34, 430 35, 727 36, 851 36, 759 37, 619 37, 562 39,414 40, 087 42, 342 41, 486 6,971 7,694 6,822 7,398 9, 096 8, 196 8, 528 8, 785 9,036 9, 228 9, 100 9, 211 9,519 9, 694 9,762 10, 072 10, 433 10, 036 10, 923 10, 594 20, 224 21, 238 22, 577 24, 097 24, 500 25, 705 28, 324 27, 326 27, 769 27, 680 27, 710 28, 121 27, 840 28, 682 28, 925 28, 695 29, 968 30, 106 30, 424 30, 955 31, 651 1.62 1.76 1.74 1.76 1.90 1.83 1. 67 1. 73 1. 70 1.67 1. 67 1. 69 1. 69 1.66 1.65 1. 64 1. 60 1. 61 1.57 1.57 1. 56 shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. Source: Department of Commerce. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS As a result of a substantial increase in exports of agricultural commodities, the balance on U.S. merchandise trade improved from a seasonally adjusted deficit of $476 million in February to a deficit of only $53 million in March. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 5.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 2.0 1973 ]/ SEE NOTE BELOW. SOURCE* DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total (including reexports) l Season- Unadally ad- justed justed Monthly average: 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Millions IN/lerehandi se expor ;s Domesti c exports Food, Crude bever- mate2 Total i rials ages, and to- and bacco fuels 2, 153 2, 229 2,458 2,586 2, 839 3, 111 3, 555 3,629 4, 101 2, 123 2, 201 2, 421 2, 554 2, 802 3, 066 3,502 3,576 4,034 3,778 4,306 3,885 4, 141 4,015 3, 657 3,937 3, 964 4, 443 4, 583 4, 693 4, 747 4,864 5, 923 3,721 4,247 3,810 4, 075 3, 942 3, 599 3,867 3,894 4, 381 4, 497 4, 620 4,678 4, 795 5,826 386 377 432 392 383 370 422 423 548 of dollars J Manufactured goods 361 356 367 394 405 417 558 537 591 1, 377 1, 453 1, 602 1,737 1, 985 2,232 2,445 2, 537 2, 812 527 610 567 565 557 509 548 478 672 760 731 736 815 1,023 2,630 3, 116 2,753 2, 917 2,762 2, 540 2,710 2, 745 3,009 2, 928 3,040 3, 114 3, 140 3,829 Merch andise iinports Gen eral impc3rts 3 2 Food, Crude Total bever- mateSeasonages, rials ally ad- Unad- and to- and justed bacco justed fuels 1, 562 1, 786 2, 135 2, 241 2,769 3, 004 3, 329 3,797 4, 630 1 3,824 S,869 8,817 3,885 3,971 4,052 4,200 4,177 4,318 4,473 4,561 4,977 5,065 5,380 485 426 396 508 528 496 539 594 637 710 750 752 744 881 Total excludes Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program. 2 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. * Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. 419 453 476 447 503 533 545 606 737 759 937 1,204 1, 313 1, 719 1, 918 2, 159 2,535 3, 146 590 444 323 345 70 107 226 -168 -529 2,765 3,401 2,918 3,254 3, 305 2, 928 3,232 2,969 3, 393 3,574 3, 190 3,604 3,318 3,737 — 649 — 646 — 596 — 597 — 497 — 513 -527 — 428 -418 -664 Unad, usted U n ad juste i 1972: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov_ _ Dec 1973: Jan __ Feb Mar___ 335 334 382 392 447 442 519 534 614 Grossmerchandise trade Manu- surplus, seasonfacally adtured justed goods 4,473 4,515 4,41S 4,482 4,468 4,565 4,726 4,606 4,736 5,136 5,002 5,281 5,541 5,432 4, 180 4, 844 4,248 4, 722 4, 766 4, 314 4,727 4,485 5, 007 5, 190 4, 795 5, 423 4,945 5, 596 626 554 544 604 614 548 632 628 692 662 639 726 645 714 673 756 659 731 715 712 728 756 775 810 822 930 853 994 -441 -304 — 476 -53 NOTE.—Data adjusted to include silver ore and bullion reported separately prior to 1969. Source: Department of Commerce; 23 U.S. BALANCES ON GOODS, SERVICES, AND TRANSFERS The deficit on goods and services declined from $656 million (seasonally adjusted) in the fourth quarter of 1972 to $350 million in the first quarter of 1973, This improvement was due to a sharp decline in the trade deficit. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -3 1973 1967 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars] ReM erchandis e 1 2 Period Netiiavestment i ncome Mili&iry transactions Direct expenditures Sales Net balance -4, 378 -4, 535 -4, 856 -4, 852 -4,816 -4, 707 1, 240 1,392 1, 512 1,478 1,922 1,166 -3, 138 -3, 143 -3, 344 -3, 374 -2,894 -3,541 1971: III... 11, 527 -11, 914 -387 -1, 198 I V _ _ _ 9,583 — 11, 117 -1,534 -1,230 1972: 1 11, 659 - 13, 490-1,831 -1, 218 11 11, 561 i-O, OOO -1, 777-1, 239 III—_ 12, 380 -13,905 — 1, 525 — 1, 101 IV.___ 13, 240 - 14, 923 - 1, 683-1, 149 1973: I * _ 15, 343 -16, 261 -918 474 423 334 281 251 299 Exports Imports Net balance 1967.. _ 30, 638 -26,821 3,817 1968 612 33, 576 -32,964 1969 36, 417 -35,796 621 1970- _ ___ 41, 963 -39, 799 2, 164 1971 42, 787 -45,453 -2,666 1972" 48, 840 -55, 656 -6,816 1 Excludes 2 Adjusted s U.S. Government Other and trans- servporta- ices, tion net expenditures 5,847 40 -1,763 6, 157 63 -1, 565 5,820 155 - 1, 784 6, 376 -115 -2,061 8,952 -957 -2,432 9,779 -1,878 -2, 583 Seaso nally ad; listed -724 -807 -884 -958 -850 -850 military grants. from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. Includes fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States. 24 Private 3 Net travel 2,038 2,663 2,249 2,214 2,477 2,838 -327 -368 -370 -426 -556 -525 -606 -703 -667 -645 -613 -660 334 302 442 574 748 819 mitBaltances, ance penon sions, goods and and other servuniices 1 4 lateral transfers 1 5, 136 -3,081 2,425 -2, 909 1, 911 -2,946 3,563 -3, 208 750 -3, 574 -4, 219 -3, 764 182 176 172 -577 200 -1,303 192 - 1, 400 -864 203 224 -656 -946 -992 -990 -918 -906 -950 Balance on current account 2,055 -484 -1,035 356 -2,824 -7, 983 -770 — 1, 569 -2, 293 -2, 318 -1,770 -1, 606 -350 4 Equal to net exports of goods and services in the national income and product accounts of the United States when converted to an annual rates basis. Source: Department of Commerce. K .S. OVERALL BALANCES ON INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS e U.S. balance of payments on an official reserve transactions basis was in deficit by $10 billion (seasonally adjusted) In the first quarter, compared to a deficit of $1% billion in the fourth quarter. This large increase in the overall payments deficit reflected massive dollar outflows during the international monetary turmoil of February and March. BiLLIONS OF DOLLARS 5 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 5 BALANCE ON CURRENT ACCOUNT AND LONG-TERM CAPITAL 1973 1972 1967 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] Period 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 9 NonLong-ter m capital Balance liquid on flows>, net current shortterm account private U.S. and longcapital GovernPrivate 2 term ment 1 capital flows net 2 -2,424 -2,912 -2, 159 1, 198 -50 -1, 926 -2,018 -1,398 -2,378 -4, 079 -L367 107 -3,280 -522 - 1, 444 230 -3,011 -640 -3,059 -482 -9, 281 -2, 386 -9,243 -1,634 Allocations of special drawing rights Errors and omissions, net Net liquidity balance Liquid private capital flows, net 2 Changes in lia- Changes Official in U.S. reserve bilities to official transforeign reserve actions official assets, balance agencies, net 4 3 net -4,683 1,265 -3,418 1, 641 -1,610 3,251 2, 702 8,824 -2,470 -6, 122 867 - 1, 174 -3,851 -5,988 -9,839 717 -11,054 -22,002 -7,763 -29, 765 710 -3,806 -13,909 3,578 -10,331 -881 OQQ Oi7t7 U.S. official reserve assets, net ( end of period) 52 14, 830 3,366 -761 -880 5 15, 710 -1,515 - 1, 187 16, 964 7,362 2,477 14, 487 27, 417 2,348 6 12, 167 32 13, 151 10, 299 Unadjusted Sea*sonally ad justed 1971: III.__ IV___ 1972: I II III___ IV____ 1973: I ^ 1 2 -558 -1,883 -3,211 -883 330 -1,772 -654 -533 -343 — 1, 081 -3, 717 -508 592 -95 750 - 1, 663 -322 -254 -2, 346 -507 -607 690 -1,523 — 1,211 179 179 178 178 177 177 -5,465 -2,082 942 — 1, 314 -1,825 -1,608 Excludes liabilities to foreign official reserve agencies. Private foreigners exclude the IMF, but include other international and regional organizations. a Includes liabilities to foreign official agencies reported by U.S. Government id U.S. banks and U.S. liabilities to the IMF arising from reversible gold sales ,4 and gold deposits with, the United States. Official reserve assets include gold, special drawing rights, convertible currencies, and the U.S. gold tranche position in the IMF. « Includes gain of $67 million resulting from revaluation of the German mark in October 1969. F -9, 380 -2,551 -11,931 -4, 329 -1,619 -5, 948 -3, 105 -119 -3, 224 -821 -2,207 1, 386 -4, 501 — 173 -4, 674 -4, 100 2, 484 -1,616 -6, 801 -3, 426 -10, 227 10, 737 6, 135 2,795 1,052 4, 729 1, 727 10, 007 1, 194 -187 429 -231 — 55 — 111 220 12, 131 12, 167 12, 270 7 13, 339 13, 217 13, 151 8 12, 931 6 6 Includes $28 million increase in dollar value of foreign currencies revalued to reflect market exchange rates as of Dec. 31,1971. 7 Includes increase of $1,016 million resulting from change in par value of the U.S. dollar on May 8. 8 Dollar equivalents not revalued to reflect de facto conversion rates. Sources: Department of Commerce and Treasury Department. 25 PRICES CONSUMER PRICES In April, the consumer price index rose 0.7 percent (0.6 percent seasonally adjusted). Food prices rose 1.5 percent (1.4 percent adjusted), the smallest rise for any month so far this year. Nonfood commodity prices increased 0.7 percent (0.4 percent adjusted), while services prices rose 0.3 percent. Index, 1967=100 Index, 1967=100 120 110 110 100 100 1967 1973 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of IABO8 COUNCtt. OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967 = 100] All items Period 1964__ 1965 1966___ 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1972: Mar Apr May_ June July Aug Sept Oct No v Dec 1973: Jan Feb Mar Apr _ Source: Department of Labor. 26 __ __ 92. 9 94. 5 97. 2 100.0 1042 109.8 116. 3 121. 3 125. 3 124.0 124.3 124.7 125.0 125.5 125. 7 126.2 126.6 126. 9 127. 3 127.7 128.6 129.8 130.7 All commodities 94. 6 95. 7 98. 2 100.0 103. 7 108.4 113. 5 117. 4 120. 9 119.7 119.9 120.3 120. 7 121. 2 121.4 122. 0 122.3 122.7 122.9 123.4 124.5 126. 1 127.4 Services Commoditie 3 Comm odities leg58 food Services All Food Rent less Nonservices All Durable durable rent 92.4 94.4 99. 1 100. 0 103.6 108. 9 114. 9 118. 4 123, 5 122. 4 122.4 122. 3 123. 0 124. 2 124. 6 124.8 124. 9 125.4 126. 0 128.6 131. 1 134. 5 136.5 95. 6 96. 2 97.5 100. 0 103.7 108. 1 112. 5 116. 8 119.4 118. 2 118.5 119.2 119.4 119. 4 119. 5 120. 3 120.8 121. 0 121. 1 120. 5 120.9 121.5 122. 3 98.8 98. 4 98.5 100. 0 103. 1 107.0 111. 8 116. 5 118. 9 117. 3 117. 7 118. 4 119. 2 119. 6 119. 7 119. 8 120. 1 120. 3 120. 3 119.9 119.9 120.2 121.0 93. 5 94. 8 97.0 100. 0 104. 1 108.8 113. 1 117.0 119.8 na 9 119. 1 119.7 119.5 119. 3 119.4 120.8 121.3 121.7 121. 7 120.9 121.6 122.4 123.3 90. 2 92. 2 95. 8 100. 0 105.2 112.5 121. 6 128. 4 133. 3 132. 1 132.4 132.7 133. 1 133.5 133. 8 134. 1 134.6 134.9 135.4 135. 7 136.2 136.6 137.0 95.9 96. 9 98. 2 100. 0 102. 4 105. 7 110. 1 115. 2 119.2 118.0 118.4 118. 6 119. 0 119.2 119.6 119. 9 120.3 120. 5 121.0 121. 5 122. 1 122.6 123.0 89.2 91. 5 95.3 100.0 105. 7 113.8 123. 7 130.8 135.9 134.6 135.0 135. 3 135. 7 136. 1 136. 4 136.7 137.2 137. 6 138.0 138.3 138.7 139.2 139.6 WHOLESALE PRICES The wholesale price index rose 0.8 percent in April (1.0 percent after adjustment for seasonal factors). The increase reflected mainly a 1.4 percent rise in industrial commodity prices (1.3 percent adjusted), the third consecutive -monthly increase exceeding 1 percent. Farm products prices declined 0.2 percent but after seasonal adjustment were up 1.1 percent. Processed foods and feeds prices declined 1.1 percent (0.6 percent adjusted), their first decline in 8 months. Index, 1967=100 180 Index, 1967=100 180 130 PROCESSED FOODS AND FEEDS 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 1973 1967 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [1967=100] All commodities Period 1964 1965 1966 1967... 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1972: Mar Apr Mav _ June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1973: Jan Feb Mar Apr _ _ _ . . __ 94,7 96.6 99. 8 100. 0 102.5 106. 5 110. 4 113. 9 119. 1 117. 4 117. 5 118. 2 118.8 119.7 _ _ _ 119. 9 120.2 120. 0 120. 7 122. 9 124. 5 126.9 129.7 130. 7 Farm products Processed foods and feeds 94. 6 98. 7 105. 9 100. 0 102.5 109. 1 111. 0 112. 9 125. 0 119. 7 119. 1 122. 2 124. 0 128.0 128. 2 128. 6 125. 5 128. 8 137. 5 144. 2 150. 9 160.9 160.6 92. 3 95.5 101.2 100. 0 102. 2 107. 3 112. 0 114. 3 120.8 118. 6 117.7 118. 6 119. 6 121. 5 121. 0 121. 8 121.8 123. 1 129.4 132.4 137. 0 141.4 139.8 1 Coverage of the subgroups does not correspond exactly to coverage of this Index. 2 Excludes crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs, plant and animal fibers, oilseeds, and leaf tobacco. Iiidustrial c ommoditi es All industrials1 95.2 96. 4 9R5 100.0 102. 5 106. 0 110. 0 114. 0 117.9 116. 8 117. 3 117. 6 117.9 118. 1 118. 5 118. 7 118. 8 119. 1 119.4 120. 0 121. 3 122.7 124. 4 Crude mate-2 rials 97. 1 100. 9 104. 5 100. 0 102.0 110. 6 118. 8 122. 7 131. 1 129. 1 129.3 129. 9 129. 8 130. 2 132. 3 132. 6 133. 8 136. 3 136. 8 139. 1 142. 3 142.5 146. 8 Inter- Producmediate er finmate-3 ished rials goods 95.6 96. 9 9a 9 100. 0 102.6 106. 1 110. 0 114. 3 118. 9 117. 6 118. 2 118. 6 119. 0 119. 2 119. 5 119. 8 120. 1 120. 3 120. 5 121. 2 122. 6 124.8 126. 6 93.3 94, 4 96. 8 100. 0 103. 5 106. 9 111. 9 116.6 119.5 119. 0 119. 3 119.4 119. 6 119. 7 119. 8 119. 9 119. 7 119. 9 120. 3 120. 6 121. 2 121.7 122. 3 Consuiiner finished g<Dods exeluding5 foods NonDurdurable able 98.2 94 8 95. 9 97. 9 97. 8 9as 100.0 100.0 102. 2 102. 2 104. 0 105. 0 108. 2 107. 1 111. 3 110. 9 113.2 113.6 112. 4 113. 1 112. 7 113.2 113. 1 113. 1 113.2 113. 5 113. 8 113. 5 114. 2 113. 6 114.5 113. 7 114. 7 112. 7 112. 8 115. 0 115. 2 113. 7 115. 4 113. 8 117.4 114. 0 117.8 114.5 119. 8 115.3 3 Excludes intermediate materials for food manufacturing and manufactured animal feeds; includes, in part, grain products for further processing. Source: Department of Labor. O*7 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS In the month ended April 1 5, prices received by farmers declined 11/4 percent while prices paid rose 11A percen The actual parity ratio fell 3 points while the adjusted ratio fell 2 points. index, 1967=100 160 Index, 1967=100 160 150 150 F PRICES PAID, 130 INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES 140 130 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 RATIO J/ 90 RATION 90 P,^RITY RATIO (ACTUAL) ^..........y 80 ***••*„.••** \ **»••».«»»». 70 60 1 I 1 ! ! I 1 1 1 t I I I 1 1 1 I ! 1967 1968 1 ! 1 1 1 | | 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1969 1964 1965 _ 1966_ 1967 _ 1968 1969_ 1970 1971__ 1972__ 1972: Mar 15 Apr 15 Mav 15 June 15_ July 15 Aug 15 Sept 15_ Oct 15—Nov 15Dec 15 1973: Jan 15 __ Feb 15- _ Mar 15_ Apr 15 _ _ ___ 1 i i i i 1 i nI i I i l I I i Ii iIi 1970 | 1971 f r r ? if ? r r i ? 1972 Prices received by "armers Prices paid by farmers i All items,, Family Livestock interest, ProducAll farm and living tion Crops products taxes, and products wage rates items items Index, 1967=100 92 93 106 85 93 94 98 103 94 94 95 96 105 105 105 98 98 99 100 100 100 100 100 100 103 101 104 102 104 104 108 97 109 106 117 109 110 114 100 114 118 110 112 119 116 120 107 115 126 124 127 122 116 133 124 120 123 129 119 108 112 125 119 123 119 125 124 123 125 115 120 129 124 121 125 126 116 131 127 122 127 125 116 136 127 128 125 122 119 135 • 128 128 137 126 124 117 129 125 129 138 116 125 130 127 130 120 138 126 127 137 127 131 145 129 134 132 144 129 131 153 131 134 132 136 149 161 132 174 138 159 140 138 134 157 140 139 143 168 i Percentage ratio of Index oi prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates on 1910-14=100 base. 28 70 "** J/RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX Op PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES, ON 1910-14=100 BASE. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Period 80 »»»»*'»»«,, 4?** \** ! A •»** i r ( f r I ! i f i i 1973 60 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Parity ratio1 Actual 76 77 80 74 73 74 72 70 74 72 71 73 74 75 75 75 75 75 78 80 82 86 83 Adjusted 2 80 82 86 79 79 80 77 74 79 77 76 78 79 80 80 80 80 80 83 83 85 89 87 2 The adjusted parity ratio reflects Government payments made directly to farmers. Source: Department of Agriculture.- MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK The seasonally adjusted money stock grew at an 8.2 percent annual rate in April, Over the past 12 months It has grown by 6.3 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 350 250 200 200 150 150 1967 1968 1 1969 1973 SOURCE) BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEBERAl RESERVE SYSTEM Period 1967: 1968: 1969: 1970: 1971: 1972: 1972: Dec Dec Dec Dec _ ___ ___ Dec _ Dec Mar Apr _ _ _ May_ __ _ __ June _ _ July Aug___ Sept ... Get Nov Dec __ 1973: Jan _ Feb__ Mar* > _ _ _ _ Apr v __ 1 Deposits at commercial banks. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures, billions of dollars] Jvloney stoc k *doney stock Time CurCurand DeDerency rency savings mand mand Total outoutTotal dededeside side posits 1 posits 1 posits1 banks banks 187.0 201. 6 208. 8 221. 3 236. 0 255. 5 241. 4 243. 0 243. 8 245. I 247. 7 248. 6 250. 1 251.6 252.7 255.5 255.4 256. 7 256. 6 258. 3 Seasonal! 3r adjusted 40. 4 146. 6 43.4 158. 2 162. 7 46. 1 172.2 49. 1 52. 6 183.4 56.8 198.7 53.6 187.7 53.9 189. 1 54.2 189. 6 54.4 190. 7 54. 6 193. 1 54.8 193.8 55. 3 194.8 55. 7 195.9 56.2 196.5 56.8 198.7 57.0 198.4 57. 5 199. 3 57.9 198. 7 199. 7 58. 6 183. 1 204.2 194.4 229. 2 270.9 312. 8 281.3 284.3 288.6 291. 7 295.0 298.9 301.9 304.8 308.4 312. 8 316. 9 322. 6 330. 9 336. 7 192. 7 207. 7 214. 9 227. 7 242. 8 262. 9 239. 0 244. 3 239. 5 243. 2 246. 6 245. 5 248. 7 251. 2 254.3 262. 9 262. 6 254. 0 254. 1 259. 6 41.2 44. 3 46.9 50.0 53. 5 57.8 53.1 53. 5 53.9 54. 4 55. 1 55. 1 55.2 55. 7 56. 7 57.8 56.7 56. 7 57.3 58. 2 Unadjustec I 151.4 163.4 167.9 177. 8 189. 2 205. 0 185.9 190. 8 185. 6 188. 8 191. 5 190.5 193. 5 195.5 197. 7 205. 0 205. 9 197. 3 196. 7 201. 5 Time and savings deposits l 182. 1 203. 2 193. 2 228. 1 269. 8 311. 7 282. 0 284.5 288. 6 291.4 294.0 299. 5 302. 7 305.9 307.7 311.7 316. 6 322. 5 331. 4 336. 1 U.S. Government demand deposits l 5. 0 5. 0 5. 6 7.3 6. 9 7.3 7.9 7. 7 10.5 6. 9 7. 3 5. 3 5. 9 6.6 6.2 7.3 8.0 9. 6 10. 1 8. 2 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 PRIVATE LIQUID ASSET HOLDINGS - NONFINANCIAL INVESTORS Seasonally adjusted liquid asset holdings of private nonfinanciai investors increased at a 13.3 percent annual rate in April compared to a 16.7 percent rate in March. The largest increase was again in negotiable certificates of deposit. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1100 1,100 1,000 1,000 900 300 300 1967 1973 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollarSj seasonally adjusted] Curr sncy and deposits Total liquid assets Period 1966: 1967: 1968: 1969: 1970: 1971: 1972: Dec Dec Dec _ Dec Dec__ _ Dec Dec 1972: Mar Apr. _ May June July Aug Sept.. Oct.. Nov Dec___ 1973: Jan__ __ Feb Mar Apr * _ __ __ Time d eposits Total Currency Commercial banks ShortNonbank term thrift Savings marketinstitubonds able setions curities Negotiable certificates of deposit Commercial paper 590. 6 640. 7 699. 1 730.9 781. 5 865. 7 975. 8 473.7 520. 4 563. 2 582. 2 630. 7 719. 3 814. 6 38.3 40.4 43.4 46. 1 49. 1 52.6 56.8 121. 1 129.4 139.4 143. 6 151. 5 161. 3 174.7 136. 9 156. 3 174.4 177.2 198. 7 233. 4 264. 8 177. 3 194. 2 205.9 215.4 231.4 272. 0 318. 2 50. 1 51. 0 51.4 51. 1 51. 3 53. 7 57. 0 43. 6 39. 9 47. 2 65.3 53.8 41.5 43. 4 14. 5 19. 1 22. 4 9. 0 23. 0 29. 8 39.2 8.8 10.4 14. 9 23.4 22.6 21.5 21.6 893. 4 902. 6 910. 4 918. 1 927. 3 935. 9 944. 4 953.3 963. 8 975. 8 747.7 754. 4 760. 3 767. 1 775. 7 783.3 790.9 799. 1 805. 9 814. 6 53. 6 53. 9 54. 2 54. 4 54. 6 54. 8 55. 3 55. 7 56. 2 56.8 166. 1 167. 3 167. 1 167.8 169. 5 170. 2 171. 2 172. 1 172. 7 174.7 243. 0 244. 4 247.0 249. 4 251. 9 254. 9 257. 0 259.8 262. 2 264. 8 285.0 288.8 292.0 295. 6 299. 6 303. 4 307. 4 311. 5 314. 9 318. 2 54.5 54.8 55. 1 55. 3 55. 6 55.9 56. 1 56. 4 56. 7 57. 0 39. 2 39.7 39.7 39. 4 38. 9 39. 1 39.4 40. 2 42. 1 43. 4 30.6 32. 1 33. 6 34. 3 35. 2 36. 1 36.7 36. 6 37. 5 39. 2 21.5 21.6 21.8 21.9 21.9 21.5 21.3 21.0 21.5 21.6 981. 4 990. 7 1, 003. 5 1, 014 0 821. 2 827.5 832. 6 838. 8 57.0 57. 5 57. 9 58. 6 173.9 174. 6 174. 1 175. 3 267. 268. 271. 272. 322. 7 326. 6 329.5 332.0 57. 2 57. 6 57. 9 58. 2 41. 5 41. 1 43. 9 45. 0 39.9 44. 0 49.8 53.5 21. 6 20. 5 19. 3 18.6 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 30 Demand deposits U.S. Crovernment se curities 6 9 1 9 BANK LOANS, INVESTMENTS, DEBITS, AND RESERVES Commercial bank loans and investments (seasonally adjusted) rose at a 5.5 percent annual rate in April after rising at a 21.3 percent rate in March. Net borrowed reserves in April were virtually unchanged at one of the highest levels in history. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 600 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 600 ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 500 INVESTMENTS IN U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 100 1967 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS All commercial banks (seasonally adjust ed data) L oans Investraents Total loans ComTotal, and Gov- Other mercial U.S. invest- excludernment securiments ing inter- and indus- securities ties bank trial End of period Bank debits outside New York City (232 centers) , seasonally adjusted annual1 rates Adl membe r banks 2 Total reserves Millions o r dollars Billions of dollars 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1972: Apr May_ June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1973: Jan Feb Mar v*> Apr 1 3 __ 352. 0 390.6 402. 1 435. 9 485. 7 554. 2 507.4 516. 1 517.5 521. 9 529. 8 535. 3 540.4 549.4 554. 2 562. 8 572. 6 581. 9 584.5 231.3 258.2 279. 4 292. 0 4 320. 6 376.6 335.9 341. 9 343. 7 348.4 356. 2 360. 0 367.2 373.6 376.6 384. 3 395. 7 404. 7 407. 9 3 86.2 95. 9 105. 7 109.6 115. 5 129. 1 119.9 121.2 * 120. 7 121.4 123. 9 124. 6 126. 7 128. 2 129. 1 133.0 137. 9 141. 6 143.9 3 3 59.3 61. 0 51.5 58.0 60.7 62. 0 62.6 63. 1 63. 2 62. 3 61.4 62. 0 59.9 60.6 62. 0 62. 0 60. 2 60. 6 60. 6 Debits during period to demand deposit accounts except interbank and U.S. Government. 2 Averages of daily figures. Annual data are for December. 8 Beginning June 1969, data include all bank-premises subsidiaries and other significant majority-owned domestic subsidiaries; earlier data include commercial banks only. 4 As of June 1971, Farmers Home Administration notes totaling about $0.7 billion are classified as other securities rather than as loans. Borrowings at Free Excess Federal reserves Reserve reserves Banks 61. 4 71.4 71. 2 85. 9 104. 5 115. 6 108. 9 111. 1 110.6 111. 2 112. 3 113. 3 113. 3 115. 1 115. 6 116.5 116. 6 116. 6 116. 0 3 4 3,755 4,360 5, 150 5, 717 6,443 7,530 7,366 7,460 7,500 7,361 7,818 7, 738 7, 748 8,175 8,179 8, 649 8, 797 9,089 25, 260 27, 221 28, 031 29, 265 31, 329 5 31, 353 32, 565 32, 812 32, 539 33, 021 33, 148 33, 003 33, 803 5 31, 774 31, 353 32, 962 31, 742 31, 973 32, 284 345 455 257 272 165 5 219 136 104 204 147 255 162 247 5 314 219 342 205 295 156 238 765 1,086 321 107 1,049 109 119 94 202 438 514 574 606 1,049 1, 165 1,593 1,858 1,721 107 -310 -829 -49 58 5 -830 27 15 110 -55 -183 -352 -327 5 -292 — 830 -823 - 1, 388 -1,563 - 1, 565 6 Beginning November 9, 1972 adjusted to include certain reserve deficiencies on which penalties can be waived for a transition period in connection with adaptation to Regulation J. 8 Excludes $0.4 billion due to loan reclassification at a large bank. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 31 CONSUMER AND REAL ESTATE CREDIT Seasonally unadjusted consumer credit increased $1,738 million in March compared with a $938 million rise a year earlier. Consumer instalment credit (seasonally adjusted) rose by $2.0 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TOTAL CONSUMER CREDIT OUTSTANDING 100 100 INSTALMENT CREDIT 80 80 NONINSTALMENT 20 20 I ! I I i I f I 1\ ! I ! 1I ! I 1 11 I I ) I 1 I I ! I ! ! I ?I I I I I ! f t I ! I f ! I I I I I ! 11 I ! I f ! I 14 f I ! I I I ! I I I 14 ^-X' SEASOMULY ADJUSTED CENLARGED SCALE) 1*? >**s/ 19 JNST>M.MENT CR EDIT EXll ENDED 1ft xcr 8 —~ r^jr*^ --—•X**'-! ,x"- — x- *""'*' - -1 -~" *~^r ,.-* in ^~—-^^ ^£~ ~- 8 INSTALMENT C REDIT REPAID 4 A ! ! I 1 1 \ \ \ I 1 1 . . . . i i . i . .. 1967 1968 , mil i i i i i W>9 1 | ! 1 1 1 I ! i ! 1 1970 . ! . , I 1, * I i , I I I ! ! 1t ! 1 1 t 1971 1972 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1972: Feb Mar___ Apr _ _ _ May__ __ June. July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec _ _ 1973: Jan Feb Mar___ 1973 [Millions of dollars] Consu mer credit outstandin g (end of p eriod; Consum er instalme nt credit e xtended iinadjusted" and r epaid (seasonally adjiisted) Instalment To tal Automot>ile paper NonAutomol Total bile Personal instal-2 Extended Repaid Extended Repaid Total ment paper loans 80, 268 89, 883 96, 239 100, 783 110, 770 121, 146 127, 163 138, 394 157, 564 136, 941 137, 879 139, 410 141, 450 143, 812 145, 214 147, 631 148, 976 150, 576 152, 968 157, 564 157, 227 157, 582 159, 320 62, 692 70, 893 76, 245 79, 428 87, 745 97, 105 102, 064 111, 295 127, 332 110, 510 111, 257 112, 439 114, 183 116, 365 117, 702 119, 911 121, 193 122, 505 124, 325 127, 332 127, 368 127, 959 129, 375 24, 934 28, 437 30, 010 29, 796 32, 948 35, 527 35, 184 38, 664 44, 129 38, 516 38, 853 39, 348 40, 063 41, 019 41, 603 42, 323 42, 644 43, 162 43, 674 44, 129 44, 353 44, 817 45, 610 4 N COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 17, 848 20, 237 21, 662 23, 235 25, 932 28, 652 30, 345 32, 865 36, 922 33, 012 33, 272 33, 606 34, 077 34, 588 34, 832 35, 450 35, 755 36, 003 36, 413 36, 922 36, 870 37, 108 37, 486 ^iso includes other consumer goods paper, and repair and modernization loans, not shown separately. 2 Consists of single-payment loans, charge accounts, and service credit. 32 f ! I 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 ! f\ 17, 576 18, 990 19, 994 21, 355 23, 025 24, 041 25, 099 27, 099 30, 232 26, 431 26, 622 26, 971 27, 267 27, 447 27, 512 27, 720 27, 783 28, 071 28, 643 30, 232 29, 859 29, 623 29, 945 3 70, 670 78, 661 82, 832 87, 171 99, 984 109, 146 112, 158 124, 281 142, 951 10, 952 11, 741 11, 374 11, 687 12, 057 11, 687 12, 484 11, 953 12, 404 12, 846 12, 627 13, 304 13, 434 13, 852 63, 470 70, 463 77, 480 83, 988 91, 667 99, 786 107, 199 115, 050 126, 914 10, 069 10, 427 10, 384 10, 355 10, 671 10, 593 10, 841 10, 667 10, 908 11, 128 10, 964 11, 355 11, 437 11, 808 24, 046 27, 208 27, 192 26, 320 31, 083 32, 553 29, 794 34, 873 40, 194 3, 100 3, 176 3, 162 3,274 3,412 3,298 3,491 3, 368 3, 504 3, 620 3, 763 4, 006 3,972 4,001 21, 369 23, 706 25, 619 26, 534 27, 931 29, 974 30, 137 31, 393 34, 729 2,776 2,831 2,867 2,819 2,922 2, 917 2,896 2,873 3, 041 3,023 2,977 3,097 3, 145 3,225 End of period, unadjusted. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Mortgage debt outstandings nonfarm, 1- to 4houses 3 197, 600 212, 900 223, 600 236, 100 251, 200 266, 800 280, 200 307, 800 » 346, 100 314, 100 324, 600 335, 800 » 346, 100 " 354, 200 BOND YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES Yields on 3-month Treasury bills and municipal bonds declined slightly from late April to mid-May while yields on long-term Government securities and the prime commercial paper rate rose. Yields on FHA new home mortgages rose 10 basis points in April. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM 10 PRIME COMMERCIAL PAPER CORPORATE Aaa BONDS (MOODY'S) 1967 SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW Period 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1972: Apr Mav June July Aug — Sept Oct Nov Dec 1973: Jan Feb. . Mar Apr_ May Week ended: 1973: Apr 13___ 20___ 27 May 4___ 11— 18___ COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] High-grade U.S. Gov ernment secu rity yields municipal 3-month bonds 3-5 year Taxable3 2 Treasury (Standard4 & issues bonds bills l Poor's) 4. 321 3. 98 5. 07 4.85 r>. 339 I 4.51 5. 59 5.26 6. 677 5. 81 6. 85 6. 12 6. 458 6. 51 7. 37 6. 58 4. 348 5. 70 5.77 5. 74 4. 071 5.27 5.85 5. 64 3. 723 5. 45 6. 01 5. 74 3.648 5. 26 5. 69 5.64 3. 874 5.37 5. 77 5. 59 4. 059 5. 39 5. 86 5. 59 4. 014 5. 29 5. 92 5. 59 4. 651 5. 36 6. 16 5. 70 4. 719 5. 20 6. 11 5.69 4. 774 5. 03 6. 03 5. 51 5. 061 5.03 6.07 5.63 5. 307 6. 29 5. 06 5. 96 5. 558 5. 12 6. 61 6. 14 6. 054 5. 30 6. 85 6. 20 6. 289 5. 16 6. 74 6. 11 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 187 187 251 278 136 179 6. 67 6. 73 6. 79 6. 79 6. 76 6. 76 1 2 Rate on new issues within period. Selected note and s April 1953 to date, bonds due or callable 10 years and after. 4 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 5 6. 09 6. 08 6. 10 6. 18 6.23 6 6. 24 bond issues. Data for first of the month, based on the maximum permissible interest rate (7 percent beginning February 18,1971) and 30-year mortgages paid in 15 years. 1973 1972 5. 11 5. 13 5. 14 5.08 5.08 5. 11 5. 51 6. 18 7.03 8. 04 7. 39 7. 21 7. 30 7. 30 7. 23 7. 21 7. 19 7. 22 7.21 7. 12 7.08 7. 15 7. 22 7. 29 7. 26 6. 23 6.94 7. 81 9. 11 8. 56 8. 16 8. 24 8. 23 8. 20 8.23 8. 19 8. 09 8. 06 7. 99 7. 93 7. 90 7.97 8. 03 8.09 Prime commercial paper, 4-6 months 5. 10 5.90 7. 83 7. 72 5. 11 4. 69 4. 58 4. 51 4. 64 4. 85 4. 82 5. 14 5. 30 5. 25 5.45 5.78 6. 22 6. 85 7. 14 7. 25 7. 25 7. 27 7.26 7. 26 6 7. 29 8. 10 8.10 8. 06 8. 03 8. 03 8.04 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6 7. Corpora te bonds (Moc dy's) Aaa Baa FHA new home mortgage yields 5 6. 55 7. 13 8. 19 9. 05 7.78 7.53 7.45 7. 50 7. 53 7. 54 7. 54 7. 55 7.56 7.57 7. 57 7. 56 7. 55 7. 56 7. 63 7. 73 13 13 13 13 13 28 o Not charted. Sources: Department of Housing and Urban Development, Treasury Department, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 013 COMMON STOCK PRICES, YIELD, AND EARNINGS The stock market continued to decline in the second half of April and the first half of May. Index, 1941-4C =10 !nde>c, 1941-43=10 Mor^ITHLY ion WEEKLY 120 COMPOS ITE PRICE INDEX FO R 500 C OMMON STOCKS 110 -_/ \V, /^^ iin - -- f V \ /n^ A \/'" -^^1 ' ^ / 100 90 80 7n 60 1 1 1 11 1 ! 1 M 1 1 ! ! ! 1! I 1 1 1 I 1 ! M 11 I ! 1 I ! / ^ / ^V 100 on v_y ^ ^ on 70 » ? ? i i Iii i ii 1 ! 1 I I I 1 ? 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! ? ! I ? ! I ! ,! I f :RCENT RATIO 25 — RATIO 25 PRICE/EARNIN 3S RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS \ 20 _^—-I ^^ — * I 1 ! 1967 ^^-™_ SOURCE: 1 ! ! 1968 ~--»_ --~ __ 15 10 60 PERCENT f I ! 1 ! 1 I 1969 20 ,, \^\ i i i 15 f 1970 ? ! ! ! ! 1972 1971 STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION Period 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1972: Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1973: Jan Feb Mar Apr Week ended: 1973: Apr 6 13 20.. 27 May 4 _ _ ll- lS, 1 1 f 10 K 1973 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Price index l Industrials Total Total 91. 93 98.69 97. 84 83. 22 98. 29 109. 20 108. 81 107. 65 108. 01 107. 21 111. 01 109. 39 109. 56 115. 05 117. 50 118. 42 114. 16 112. 42 110. 27 99. 18 107. 49 107. 13 91. 29 108. 35 121. 79 121. 34 120. 16 120. 84 119. 98 124. 35 122. 33 122. 39 128. 29 131. 08 132. 55 127. 87 126. 05 123. 56 109. 20 112. 08 111.52 109. 20 108. 74 109. 99 4 105. 66 122. 31 125. 70 124. 99 122. 32 121. 77 123. 13 118. 07 Public utilities Railroads j Dividend yield 2 (percent) 1941-13 = 10 96. 96 79. 18 105. 77 86.33 103. 75 87.06 80. 22 87. 87 102. 80 99.78 113. 91 119. 39 120. 19 115. 05 112. 67 119. 65 120. 92 113. 43 112. 57 119. 13 124. 47 116. 17 121. 63 113. 19 112. 94 119. 50 122. 11 119. 51 124. 57 122. 26 122. 57 127. 04 117. 54 125. 56 124. 53 116. 41 120. 38 111. 24 68. 10 66.42 62. 64 54.48 59. 33 56.90 55. 70 54.94 53. 73 53.47 54. 66 55. 36 56. 66 61. 16 61.73 60. 01 57.52 55.94 55. 34 46.72 48.84 45. 95 32. 13 41. 94 44. 11 47.38 45. 06 43.66 42. 00 43. 28 42. 37 41. 20 42.41 44. 62 42.87 40. 61 39. 29 38. 88 3.20 3.07 3. 24 3. 83 3. 14 2.84 2. 83 2.88 2. 87 2. 90 2.80 2.83 2.82 2. 73 2. 70 2. 69 2.80 2.83 2. 90 119. 08 122. 93 122. 17 117. 33 118. 15 120. 58 115.42 54. 89 55.58 55. 82 55. 26 55. 30 56. 16 55.44 39. 18 39.56 39.26 37. 94 37. 60 37. 80 35. 78 2. 94 2.84 2.87 2. 96 2.96 2. 92 4 3. 03 Capital goods Includes 500 common stocks: 425 Industrials, 55 public utilities, and 20 railroads. Weekly indexes for capital and consumer goods are Wednesday figures* all2 other weekly indexes are averages of dally figures. Aggregate cash dividends (based on latest known annual rate) divided by the aggregate monthly market value of the stocks in the group. Annual yields 34 ! Consumers' goods 110. 35 114. 23 111. 85 108. 52 108. 96 110. 76 106. 56 Price/ earnings ratio 3 17.48 17.66 16.48 15.69 18.50 18.18 17. 95 18. 00 18.30 are3 averages of monthly data. Weekly data are Wednesday figures. Ratio of price index for last day of quarter to earnings for 12 months ending with that quarter. Annual ratios are averages of quarterly data. «Not charted. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation. FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBT In the first 9 months of fiscal 1973 there was a deficit of $22.0 billion/ a year earlier the deficit was $28.9 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 260 220 -20 -20 -40 -40 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 FISCAL YEARS SOURCE& TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] i Federal debt (send of period) Period Fiscal year: 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 19732 19742 Cumulative totals for first 9 months: Fiscal year 1972 Fiscal year 1973 Receipts Total i Held by the public 99. 7 106. 6 112. 7 106.8 111. 3 118.6 -7. 1 -4.8 -5. 9 303. 3 310.8 316.8 248.4 254.5 257.6 116. 8 130.9 149.6 153.7 187.8 118.4 134.7 158. 3 178.8 184. 5 -1.6 -3.8 -8.7 -25. 2 3. 2 323.2 329.5 341. 3 369.8 367. I 261.6 264.7 267.5 290.6 279.5 193.7 188.4 208. 6 230.0 263.0 196. 6 211.4 231. 9 249.8 268. 7 -2. 8 -23. 0 -23.2 -19.8 -5.7 382.6 409.5 437.3 473. 3 505.5 284.9 304. 3 323.8 34R8 365.3 141.2 161.2 170. 1 183.2 -28.9 -22.0 437.6 469.6 329. 8 349.5 __ _ *8 Excludes non-interest-bearing public debt securities held by IMF. Estimates as revised May 1,1973. Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) Sources: Treasury Department and Office of Management and Budget. 35 FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION fn the first 9 months of fiscal 1973 budget receipts were $20.0 billion higher than a year earlier while outlays were $13.1 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 120 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 120 RECEIPTS 100 100 80 80 INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES n.......---— \ 60 OTHER RECEIPTS 60 40 40 20 20 CORPORATION INCOME TAXES I I ! 0 180 180 OUTLAYS 160 140 140 120 120 NONDEFENSE 100 \—- 100 80 80 NATIONAL DEFENSE 60 I 40 1963 I 1 1964 1965 60 1 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 ^40 FISCAL YEARS SOURCES: TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Outlays Receipts Natio nal defense Period Fiscal year: 1962___ 1963___ 1964___ 1965_ 1966_ 1967_ 1968_ 1969_ 1970 _ 19711972_ 1973 1974 Cumulative totals for first 9 months: Fiscal year 1972_ Fiscal year 1973_ Total Other Total Department of Total Defense, military 99.7 106. 6 112. 7 116. 8 130. 9 149. 6 153. 7 187. 8 193. 7 188.4 208. 6 230. 0 263. 0 45. 6 47. 6 48.7 48. 8 55. 4 61. 5 68. 7 87. 2 90. 4 86.2 94. 7 101.4 115. 3 20.5 21. 6 23. 5 25. 5 30. 1 34. 0 28. 7 36. 7 32. 8 26.8 32. 2 35.5 40. 0 33.6 37. 4 40. 5 42. 6 45. 3 54. 1 56. 3 63. 9 70.5 75.4 81. 7 93. 1 107. 7 106. 8 111. 3 118. 6 118. 4 134. 7 158. 3 178. 8 184. 5 196.6 211. 4 231.9 249. 8 268. 7 51. 1 52.3 53. 6 49. 6 56. 8 70. 1 80. 5 81. 2 80. 3 77. 7 78. 3 76.4 81. 1 46. 9 48. 1 49. 6 46. 0 54. 2 67.5 77.4 77. 9 77.2 74.5 75.2 74.2 78.2 141.2 161.2 65.2 75.5 18.3 20.8 57.8 64.9 170. 1 183.2 55.4 55. 2 53. 5 53. 4 i Estimates as revised May 1,1973. 36 Individual Corporation income income taxes taxes Interna- Health tional Inand affairs income terest Other and finance security 8.3 3. 8 23.7 25. 5 26. 8 27. 4 31.5 37.8 43. 7 49. 3 56. 7 70.6 82. 0 93. 9 103. 7 9. 2 9. 8 10. 4 11. 3 12. 6 13. 7 15. 8 18. 3 19. 6 20. 6 22. 8 24. 7 19. 2 20.3 24. 2 26. 7 30.6 33.2 36. 2 34.4 37.7 40.5 47.2 53.3 55.4 2. 8 2. 3 59. 0 66. 8 15. 3 16. 5 37.7 42.4 4.5 4. 1 4. 1 4. 3 4. 5 4. 5 4. 6 3. 8 3.6 3. 1 3.7 3.3 Sources: Treasury Department and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS According to preliminary estimates for the first quarter, Federal receipts rose $14.1 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) and expenditures declined $2.7 billion. As a result the deficit declined sharply to $7.5 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 140 120 +20 +20 SURPLUS • 111 m m " i 1\ ii i1 iI "" -20 -40 DEFICIT 1 ! f 1 ! f 1968 1967 1 f f 1969 J/ PRELIMINARY 1 1 I 1970 CALENDAR YEA RS 1\ y 1 1 1 | ! 1P 11 ^ -20 223 1 1 ! -^1 i972 1971 ! ! -40 1973 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Fe<ieral Go1vernmen b expend itures Federal (aovernm ent receip ts Period Fiscal year : 1969 1970 1971 1972*>___ Calendar year: 1969 1970 1971 1972 Indirect Personal Corporate business tax and Total nontax profits tax and tax nontax receipts accruals accruals Grantsin-aid ContriPurchases Trans- to State Net butions for Total of goods fer pay- and interest social inand ments local paid services governsurance ments Surplus or Subsidies Less: less Wage deficit current accruals income surplus of less and Governdisproduct ment en- burse- accounts terprises ments (-), 190. 4 195. 0 193. 0 211. 9 90. 0 93. 7 87. 1 100. 1 37. 4 33. 1 32. 0 33. 5 18.6 10. 2 20. 1 20. 1 44. 4 49. 0 53. 8 58. 3 185. 196. 212. 233. 7 99. 4 3 98. 3 8 95. 8 1 103. 1 50. 7 56. 8 69. 8 78. 6 19. 2 22. 6 27. 0 32. 7 12. 3 14. 0 14. 3 13. 5 4. 1 4. 7 5.8 5. 2 0. 0 .1 —.1 .0 4. 7 -1. 3 -19. 7 — 21. 1 197. 3 191. 6 199. 1 228.6 94. 8 92. 4 89. 6 109.0 36. 6 30. 4 33. 1 36.2 19. 0 19. 3 20. 5 20. 1 46. 9 49. 5 55. 9 63.4 189. 2 98. 8 204. 5 96. 5 220. 8 97. 8 246. 8 105.8 52.4 63. 3 75. 0 83.4 20. 3 24. 5 29. 3 37.9 13. 1 14.6 13. 6 13.6 4.6 5. 5 5.2 6. 1 .0 .0 8. 1 — 12. 9 — 21. 7 -18. 1 1971: III___ 199. 1 IV... 202. 8 89. 8 93. 8 33. 2 31. 1 20. 0 20. 8 56. 1 57. 0 222. 2 97. 9 227. 5 100. 7 76. 3 77.8 29. 8 30. 8 13. 6 13. 3 4. 6 5. 0 .0 -23. 1 -24. 7 221. 4 224. 9 229. 8 238. 4 105. 8 107. 3 109. 1 113. 6 34. 0 35.2 36.7 38.9 19.9 19.7 20.2 20. 6 61.7 62. 6 63.8 65.3 236. 3 246. 5 241.6 262.7 105. 7 108. 1 105.4 104.0 79. 4 80. 4 82.0 91.8 32. 4 38. 1 34.4 46. 5 13. 1 13. 8 13.6 13.7 5. 6 6. 0 6.2 6.7 .0 .0 rO -14. 8 — 21. 6 -11.8 -24. 3 1973: I *___ 252.5 109. 6 44.5 20.8 77.6 260.0 106. 6 92. 3 41.8 14. 2 5. 0 .0 -7.5 1972:1 !!___ III__ IV___ i $39 million. Source: Department of Commerce. (1) .0 .1 —.1 37 UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE POSTAGE AND FEES PAID U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS WASHINGTON, D.C. 2O4O2 OFFICIAL BUSINESS First-Class Mail Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING The Nation's Income, Expenditure, and Saving Gross National Product or Expenditure National Income , Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment. Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force __ Selected Measures of Unemployment and Part-Time Employment Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Weekly Hours of Work—Selected Industries Average Hourly and Weekly Earnings—Selected Industries PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Production of Selected Manufactures Weekly Indicators of Production New Construction New Housing Starts and Applications for Financing Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and New Orders Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. Balances on Goods, Services, and Transfers U.S. Overall Balances on International Transactions PRICES Consumer Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock Private Liquid Asset Holdings—Nonfinancial Investors Bank Loans, Investments, Debits, and Reserves Consumer and Real Estate Credit Bond Yields and Interest Rates . Common Stock Prices, Yield, and Earnings FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays and Debt Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis Page 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 _ __ ... - 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 . „ . 35 36 37 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402 Price 55 cents (single copy). Subscription price: $6.50 per year; $1.75 additional for foreign mailing. 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 NOTE.—Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise stated, all dollar figures are current dollars. P Indicates preliminary and not available. 38 10 11 12 13 14 15 U.S. G O V E R N M E N T P R I N T I N G O F F I C E : 1973