Full text of Economic Indicators : May 1948
The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
80th Congress, 2d Session Joint Committee Print Economic Indicators MAY 1948 Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council of Economic Advisers and printed for the use of the Joint Committee on the Economic Report UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1948 JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT (Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio, Chairman JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan, Viet Chairman JOSEPH H. BALL, Minnesota RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah JOSEPH C. O'MAHOISIEY, Wyoming FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania JOHN SPARKMAN, Alabama GEORGE H. BENDER, Ohio CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey WRIGHT PATMAN^ Texas WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio CHARLES O. HARDY, Staff Director FRED E. BERQUIST, Assistant Staff Director JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk To the Members of Congress: From the time the Joint Committee on the Economic Report was established, its members realized that one of its basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture of current economic trends and developments. This need could not be met merely by turning to the many statistical reports compiled by the various executive agencies. Most of these were too detailed or not sufficiently graphic. None was adequate in presenting the salient statistics for the various segments of the economy. Fortunately, the Joint Committee finds that Economic Indicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiled monthly by the Council of Economic Advisers, admirably fills this need. While this, material was prepared primarily for the use of the President, the Council and other officials in the executive offices, the Council has made it available to the Joint Committee. Other Members of Congress have also expressed an interest in being able to obtain a quick picture of current economic facts without having to wade through voluminous and specialized Government documents. In addition, businessmen, farm leaders, labor organizations and representatives of the press and radio have indicated their desire for this information. Since nothing contained in these charts and tables is of a confidential nature they have urged that the material be made available to the general public. Accordingly, the Joint Committee has decided to provide Congress and the public with a limited number of copies of Economic Indicators for May 1948. If the report receives a favorable reaction from the members of Congress it will be continued on a monthly basis. Any comments or suggestions with respect to possible improvements in this presentation will be appreciated. Vice-Chairman Joint Committee on the Economic Report. 11 Letter of Transmitted Hon. ROBERT A. TAFT, Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report, United States Congress, Washington, D. C. DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the Joint Committee on the Economic Report in your plans to make Economic Indicators available to the Congress as a whole and to the general public. In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has found it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts showing current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a better position to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the improvement and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services. We have realized, of course, that this material has a potential usefulness not only to the President, the Council and the executive departments, but also to the Congress. Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly ,by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and consumer organizations with whom we regularly consult. We believe the Joint Committee will perform a service of real value by giving wide circulation to this material. Sincerely yours, EDWIN G. NOURSE, Chairman. LEON H. KEYSERLING, Vice Chairman. JOHN D. CLARK. Contents Section A: THE NATION'S E C O N O M I C BUDGET The Nation's Economic Budget Section B: PRICES Consumers' Prices Wholesale Prices .. Prices Received and Paid by Farmers Stock Prices 2 3 4 5 Section C: EMPLOYMENT Labor Force. . . Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours Work Stoppages 6 7 8 9 Section D: PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production .. Production of Selected Durable Manufactures . . . . Production of Selected Nondurable, Manufactures . New Construction.. New Housing Starts Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment New Corporate Security Issues 1 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Section D: PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY—Continued Inventories and Sales 17 Exports and Imports 18 Section E: PURCHASING POWER National Income Corporate Profits ,. Personal Income Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving Per Capita Income. . . Average Hourly Earnings Average Weekly Earnings Farm Income Average Family Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Consumer Credit 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 Section F: MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE Money Supply 30 Bank Loans and Investments 31 Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public.......... 32 Section A: THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET Preliminary estimates of the Nation's Economic Budget for the first quarter of 1948 indicate that the total increased 6 percent above the level of 1947. Consumers'expenditures increased 6 percent, business outlays 19 percent, while net exports and government expenditures dropped. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 50 THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET TOTAL* 250 - (Gross National Product) BUSINESS EXCESS OF EXPENDITURES 25 200 200 1948 1947 1946 lttQr«» INTERNATIONAL 150 ISO 25 NET FOREIGN INVESTMENT 194? 1946 1948 1st Or 100 100 25 1946 1947 1946 1946 1948 * 1st Or** * $ROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT tS NOT EXAGTLT THE SUM Of THE COMPONENTS BECAUSE Of CERTAIN ADJUSTMENTS. ft ft SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL HATES ft*« RAN6E Of ESTIMATES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN SEASONAL f ACTOR FOR THE FIRST QUARTER OEfWTTMFNT OF (XMKM £*GE AND BUREAU OF THE [Billions of dollars] Account Calendar year 1948, first quarter, annual rates, seasonally adjusted Calendar year 1947 Calendar year 1946 Excess of Excess of Re- Expend- receipts (+) Re- Expend- receipts (+) ceipts itures or expendi- ceipts itures or expenditures (— ) tures (— ) Consumers: 158.4 Disposable income 143.7 Expenditures. - ... .» Savin&r (-40 Business: 13. 3 Undistributed profits and reserves 24.6 Gross private domestic investment Excess of receipts (+) or investment ( — ) International: 4.8 Net foreign investment Excess of receipts (+) or investment ( — ) Government (Federal, State, and local) : Cash receipts from the public -. 56.5 ~~55.~2~ Cash payments to the public Excess1 of receipts (-{-) or payments ( — ) -22.3 -24.5 Adjustments « .. 0 -2.1 Statistical discrepancy Total gross national product- _ - ... _ . - . - 203. 7 203. 7 175. 3 + 14.8 17. 6 11. 3 164.4 27. 8 8.7 -4.8 59.3 53. 4 186. 1 + 10.9 18.9 -10.2 62.3 +5.9 + 6.5 -4.4 229. 6 0 229.6 Expenditures 173.2 36.0 4.2 -8.7 + 1.3 + 2.1 -18.2 -24.7 -2.1 -4.4 0 Receipts 51.4 -17.7 -20.4 -5. 3 244.3 244.3 Excess of receipts (+) or expenditures (— ) + 12.9 -17.1 *-4.2 + 10.9 +2.7 -5.3 0 1 Adjustments must be made to insure that Nation's Economic Budget total is equal to current production of goods and services. The adjustments eliminate double counting, such as payments to social security beneficiaries and veterans' pensions, which are reflected in government account as well as in consumers' account. For detail,'see Appendix A of the President's Economic Reports. * ' NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding* Sources: Department of Commerce and Bureau of the Budget. - , Section B: PRICES CONSUMERS' PRICES Lower food prices caused consumers1 prices to drop slightly in March, to rise. Most other items continued PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE 200 200 175 150 125 100 0 '' 11 1 1 1 i 1 1 i 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 11 h i 1 1 1 1 1 i i i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 I M I M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I| i 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 M I M 1 1 M f t 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 *ALSO INCLUDES HOUSEFURNISHINGS, FUEL, ELECTRICITY, ICE, AND MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES, NOT SHOWN ON CHART. SOURCE: Deportment of Labor. Council of Economic Advisers [1935-39=100] Period 1939 monthly average 1940 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average .. 1947: May June July. August September October... November December 1948; January February March 1 All items » •... .. .; . _, „.. Food Clothing Rent 99. 4 100. 2 105. 2 116. 5 123. 6 125. 5 128 4 139. 3 159. 2 95. 2 96. 6 105. 5 123. 9 138.0 136. 1 139 1 159. 6 193. 8 100. 5 101. 7 106. 3 124. 2 129. 7 138. 8 145 9 160. 2 185. 8 104. 3 104.6 106.2 108. 5 108.0 108. 2 108. 3 108. 6 111.2 156. 0 157. 1 158. 4 160. 3 163. 8 163. 8 164. 9 167.0 187. 6 190.5 193. 1 196. 5 203. 5 201. 6 202. 7 206. 9 185. 0 185. 7 184. 7 185. 9 187. 6 189. 0 190. 2 191.2 109. 2 109.2 110. 0 111. 2 113. 6 114. 9 115. 2 115.4 168. 8 167. 5 166. 9 209. 7 204. 7 202.3 192. 1 195. 1 196.3 115. 9 116.0 116.3 Also includes housefurnishings, fuel, electricity, ice, and miscellaneous goods and services. NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities* Source: Department of Labor. WHOLESALE PRICES Wholesale prices displayed some upward tendency in April, with food prices almost back to the peak levels of early January. Farm prices have recovered about 2/5 of the January-February drop* Other than farm and food prices have continued an upward creep. PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE 22O PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE 220 200 i 206 FARM PRODUCTS 180 180 160 160 ALL COMMODITIES 140 140 OTHER THAN FARM AND FOODS 120 120 • •wr I 1 100 £ J F M A , M 1 I 1 J I J I A I S too I O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N 0 1948 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. WHOLESALE PRICES [1926=100] All commod- Farm products ities Week ended— 1946: Jan* 5 June 29 Sept. 28 1947: Mar. 29 June 28 Sept. 27 Dec. 27 ' .- . 1948: Jan. 3 10 .*.. .- - 106. 8 112.7 124.4 139. 6 131.3 140.3 156. 6 167. 7 108.0 113.4 133.0 159. 1 100. 6 105.4 112.4 123.9 .... .. ---. ... .. — 149.4 147. 6 156. 2 163. 0 183.8 179.0 184.7 197.0 166.5 162.2 177.6 177.8 131. 9 132.0 138.2 146.0 ..... .. — .. 164.4 164 5 165. 5 164.4 163.7 199. 2 197.0 201. 5 199. 2 195. 1 181.3 182.1 181. 2 177. 4 176.5 146.4 146.9 147.4 147.6 148.0 163. 8 159.7 159.2 159.2 195. 5 180.9 181.7 182. 8 177.9 173.3 170. 3 170. 5 147. 8 147.5 147.5 147.3 160.4 159. 8 161.5 161. 1 187.1 1849 187. 6 186.2 172.2 171.2 176.4 1748 147.3 147. 3 147.3 147.4 160. 1 160. 6 162.9 163.6 162.6 183.9 183. 1 189.2 188.9 186.9 172. 4 1745 178. 8 180.4 177. 5 147.7 147.9 148.3 149.0 148.7 ... i?:::::::::...:.:..:..!.:.. i.... 24 31 u — :-- J.... -. Feb. 7 14 21 . 28 Mar. 6 13. . L.™ 20 .. ... 27 Other than farm and foods :.. -J-- - Dec. 28 - -. Foods .-. .. i * .. .. Apr. 3 . «. .. 10 . 17 ^... 24 L ^....... May 1.. .................... ......... .. Source: Department of Labor. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received, by farmers in April continued to recover from the February drop. Prices paid by farmers have been relatively stable since the first of the year. PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE 350 PERCENT Of 1910-14 AVERAGE '350 MONTHLY AVERAGE 300 300 PRICES RECEIVED 250 250 200 200 PRICES PAID (INCL. INTEREST, TAXES) 150 150 100 100 PARITY RATIO * 60 50 I 1939 * 40 41 42 43 RATIO Of PRtceS RECEIVED TO Pfi/CCS PAID, I I I I I I I I IIF _J_ 44 45 J F M A M J J A S O N O U F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N 0 1946 1947 1948 r, AND TAX£S, SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS [1910-14=100] Prices received * Period Prices paid, including inter- Parity ratio2 est and taxes 1939 monthly average. '. 1940 monthly average...- -.. _„ .„.— . . 1941 monthly average-—, . >„_ 1942 monthly average „• . ;.. 1943 monthly average _ _ . — .' ,. L. 1944 monthly average . * ".1945 monthly average- „ - . ^ -------1946 monthly average . . 1947 monthly average i 95 100 124 159 192 195 202 233 278 124 125 132 150 162 169 172 193 231 77 80 94 106 119 115 117 121 J20 1947: January ,. February -..-.— --.. March . ;.. April. .Mav- -.-- --—_...- - .. .. June -i. -i--. -. July— — , August.-. ;, . .September .-. .. October ..... . „. November —-_.--.. ..«.-. ]D^<*-6Tn^i" , . ^- _ ^ ^ , . „ _ -T _ ™ .-„.._ ™ . ..„„„ 260 262 280 276 272 271 276 276 286 289 287 301 215 221 226 229 228 230 230 234 238 239 241 245 121 119 124 121 119 118 120 118 120 121 119 123 1948: January February March April 307 279 283 291 251 248 247 249 122 112 115 117 .. - «, ....--. . ._ * August 1909-July 1914~ 100. Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, and taxes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 2 STOCK PRICES Industrial and railroad stock prices rose sharply in March and April, and utilities rose somewhat. PERCI•NT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE 175 MONTHLY AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVE RAGE 175 \ . ^- RAILROADS • _jtt^* **/ ^^S 150 ISO \ INDUSTRIALS / 125 —W >; •A J.f UTILITIES ^^x*' 100 75 125 V \ l ^ 100 X +*^>s ^\/y 75 *"V> V 50 SO i i 0 1939 40 i 41 l 42 i 43 t 44 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 r i i i i 1 i t i l l J 45 F M A M J J A S O N O J F M A M J 1946 J A S O N O 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 J 1947 F M A* M J J A SON 0 0 1948 * AVERAGE OP WEEKLY DATA THROUGH APRIL 21. SOURCE: STANDARD AND POOR'S CORPORATION. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS STOCK PRICES 402 COMMON STOCKS [1935-39 = 100] Combined in- Industrial (354 Railroads (20 dex (402 stocks) stocks) stocks) Period Utilities (28 stocks) 1939 monthly average 1940 monthly average - - ... 1941 monthly average _ 1942 monthly average - .. 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average •. 1945 monthly average '. 1946 monthly average -...-.--1947 monthly average . • 94.2 88. 1 80.0 69.4 91.9 99.8 121.5 139.9 123.0 94.8 87.9 80.4 71.3 94. 1 101.7 123.3 143.4 128.0 74.7 71. 1 70.6 66. 1 88.7 101.0 136.9 143.0 105.3 98.6 95.8 81.0 61,3 82. 1 89.9 06.1 20.2 02.9 1947: January . . _. February March . ., April ... May June July August September. . . October November . December 125.2 128.7 123.7 119.3 115.2 119. 1 126.0 124. 5 123. 1 125.1 123.6 122.4 128.5 132.6 127.7 123. 1 119.0 124. 1 131. 7 130.2 128. 4. 131.1 130.3 129.2 114. 7 118.8 109.9 102.2 95.1 97.6 108. 2 105.2 103.6 104. 2 100. 1 103.9 10.7 11.4 07.3 04.6 02.0 00.8 02.2 01.4 02.0 01.0 97.2 94.0 120. 1 114.2 116. 4 124. 1 126.0 119.2 121.8 130.3 106.5 101.9 105.2 114.0 95.1 92.6 93.0 95.9 1948 1 January February _ - . March April1 . 75403-48-—8 1 ...... .. . .. - ~ ~- --- - ...... .. - . . .. Average of weekly data through Apr. 21. Source: Standard & Poor's Corp. Section C: EMPLOYMENT LABOR FORCE Unemployment dropped 200,000 in March, while the labor force remained stable. 75 - MILLIONS OF PERSONS 50 25 MONTHLY A V E R A G E J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D MAGNIFIED SCALE > ppftlf 1941 1944 i 1945 1946 - [ t j. t i JpS :: i . ).. 1 . .}.. i ...'t i 1 ) t ± :: 1 j ' 1 1947 1946 i i 1 i i I i i 1948 SOURCE: Deportment of Commerce. Council of Economic Advisers LABOR FORCE [Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over] Total labor force, including armed forces Period 1941 monthly average 1 944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average „ 1947: January February March _ ._ . April May June July __ _ August September October November December 1948: January February March April '. „ _ _- _ _ _. _ . . Civilian employed Total In agriculture Armed forces Unemployed 57, 380 65, 890 65, 140 60, 820 61, 608 50, 350 53, 960 52, 820 55, 250 58, 027 41, 250 45, 010 44, 240 46, 930 49, 761 9,100 8,950 8,580 8,320 8,266 1,470 11, 260 11, 280 3,300 1,440 5,560 670 1,040 2,270 2,142 59, 510 59, 630 59, 960 60,650 61, 760 64,007 64, 035 63, 017 62, 130 62, 219 61, 510 60,870 55, 390 55, 520 56, 060 56, 700 58, 330 60, 055 60, 079 59, 569 58, 872 59, 204 58, 595 57, 947 48, 890 48, 600 48, 820 48, 840 49,370 49, 678 50, 013 50, 594 50, 145 50, 583 50, 609 50, 985 6, 500 6,920 7,240 7,860 8,960 10, 377' 10, 066 8,975 8,727 8,622 7,985 6,962 1,720 1,620 1,570 1,530 1,470 1,397 1,371 1, 352 1,346 1,327 1,294 1,280 2, 400 2,490 2,330 2,420 1,960 2,555 2,584 2,096 1,912 1,687 1, 621 1,643 60, 455 61, 004 61,.005 61,760 57, 149 57, 139 57, 329 58, 330 50, 089 50, 368 50, 482 50, 883 7,060 6,771 6,847 7, 448 1,242 1,226 1,236 1,237 2, 065 2, 639 2,440 2,193 NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily*add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. In nonagricultural industries NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT t The March increase in employment was reflected fairly evenly in major industry groups. MILLIONS OF EMPLOYEES 60 MILLIONS OF EMPLOYEES 60 30 FEDERAL,STATE.AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT* '' 20 10 10 1939 1944 * 1941 1945 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT [Thousands of persons] Total wage and salary workers 1 Period 1939 monthly 1941 monthly 1944 monthly 1945 monthly 1946 monthly 1947 monthly average average average average average. average 1947t January Februarv-- _ March " _ April May June. Julv August. September . October November December^ 1948: January February March 2 . , _ . _ _ *. « . . _ ... .. - . _ . -- .. . _ . . . -- _i Manufacturing Trade Federal, State, and local government Other 30, 287 36, 164 41, 480 39, 977 40, 712 42, 539 10, 078 12, 974 17, 111 15, 302 14, 365 15, 553 6,705 7,567 7,399 7,654 8,448 8, 712 3,987 4,622 6,026 5,967 5,595 5,411 9,517 11,001 10,944 11, 054 12, 305 12, 863 41, 803 41, 849 42, 043 41, 824 41, 919 42, 363 42, 201 42, 624 43, 039 43,298 43, 450 44, 081 15, 372 15, 475 15, 510 15, 429 15, 237 15, 328 15, 233 15, 595 15, 801 15, 831 15, 872 15, 965 8,552 8,507 8,565 8,552 8,545 8,582 8,558 8,586 8,688 8,889 9,075 9,455 5,384 5,367 5,415 5,426 5,447 5,399 5,281 5,288 5,425 5,469 5,450 5,653 12, 495 12, 500 12, 553 12, 417 12, 690 13,,054 13, 129 13, 155 13, 125 13, 109 13, 053 13, 008 43, 015 42; 683 43, 004 15, 878 15, 775 15, 870 8,821 8,738 8,797 5,417 5,387 5, 426 12, 899 12, 783 12, 911 1 Number of wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month. Proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces are excluded. Not comparable with estimates for nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, as reported by Department of Commerce.' because latter includes self-employed, proprietors, and domestic servants and are based on population enumeration whereas estimates in this table are based on establishment reports. 3 Preliminary. Source: Department of Labor. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS 1 A shorter workweek in bituminous coal mining in February was attributable primarily to the freight car shortage. The workweek for most other industries changed little. Preliminary data indicate little change in March for manufacturing. HOUFIS PER WEEK HOURS PER WEEK BITUMINOUS COAL MINING ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES 50 50 MONTHLY « VEF«A<•E MONTHLY IHHrv\^ AVE RA<5E *!? !5T 40 40 30 30 20 ZO 1 0 10 f\ UT T** \ u :jj: I I l I l I l l 1 II 0 1939 41 44 45 1 1 1 1I1t 11 11 1946 ijii 1 1 1 111 11 1 11 1947 jjj: 1 M 11! 1 1 I 1 1 0 1939 41 1948 44 45 1946 50 MONTHLY AVERAGE 40 «!J? 1948 MON THLY AVERAGE "-1^11. 40 «_***—V- s**-—'X/ •x II I 1 t 1 1 1 1 1 1 1I 1947 RETAIL TRADE PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION 50 1 1 1 1 1 11 11 1 1 30 *~* -, t^ 30 •: :; ;: :; {:•': ijjij '•':•': '•'::: 20 20 •:•: 10 10 l| 1 11 11111111 0 1939 41 44 45 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 11 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1946 1947 , . 1 1 .1 1 .1 11 1 1 1 1 1 f . 1 1 1 1 1 .1 1 . 1 1 1 1 11 0 1948 1939 41 44 45 1946 1947 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. 1948 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS SELECTED INDUSTRIES All manufacturing industries Period 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947: January _ February March__ April May June July August September October November December. . -. . 1948: January 2 February March3 1 2 4 4 „ . . Bituminous coal mining Private building construction » 37. 7 40. 6 45 2 43. 4 40. 4 40. 3 27 1 31 1 43 4 42 3 41. 6 40 7 32 34 39 39 38 37 6 8 6 0 1 8 43 42 40 40 40 40 0 5 3 3 5 2 40. 6 40. 4 40. 4 40. 1 40. 1 40. 2 39. 8 39. 8 40. 4 40. 6 40 4 41.2 46. 7 43 6 43 7 36. 4 44 3 43 7 31 8 39 1 39 i 39 9 38 5 41. 2 37 36 38 37 37 37 37 39 38 38 36 37 6 9 0 1 7 7 9 7 0 0 6 9 39 40 40 40 40 40 41 41 40 40 39 39 9 1 0 0 0 8 1 0 0 0 5 7 40. 5 40.2 40.4 40 9 38, 7 37 2 36 6 Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects. Preliminary. Source: Department of Labor. 8 Retail trade 39 8 40 0 WORK STOPPAGES In March, more than 6 million work days were lost because of work stoppages in bituminous coal mining and meat packing industries. MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE 25 28 20 15 10 10 PEAK MONTH \ 1939 40 41 42 43 44 45 F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N D 1946 J F M * AM J J A S O N O 1948 1947 * PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE. COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. WORK STOPPAGES Man-days idle (thousands) Period 1939: Monthly average- April—peak month 1940: Monthly average - -- -1941 1 Monthly average April—peak month . 1942 : Monthly average ,. . 1943: Monthly average June—peak month _ 1944: Monthly average '. 1945* Monthly average . --October—peak month 1946: Monthly average.. 1947: Monthly average1947 : January : February --\March April _-« --MayJune July » -. August _ September % October . . . . November . -__« December . . 1948: January ~ ---February March 1 . Preliminary estimate. Source: Department of Labor. 1,484 4, 902 559 1,921 7,113 349 1, 125 4,699 727 3, 168 8,610 9,672 2,908 1,400 1,300 1, 200 8,600 6,800 4, 000 4,000 2, 500 2,000 1,900 700 500 1,000 725 6,000 Principal stoppage Coal. Coal. Coal. Coal. Telephone. Telephone. r Coal, meat packing. Section D: PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION In March industrial production dropped a little below the peacetime record reached in February because the increase in durable goods was not enough to offset the decline in mining. Preliminary estimates indicate a further drop of 3 percent in April. PERCENT OF 1935*39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE 250 250 200 200 \ 150 150 100 100 50 1935-39 1943 1945 AVERAGE AVERAGE AVERAGE F M * A * M J J A S O N D 1948 * PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE SOURCE! Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System C o u n c i l of Economic A d v i s e r s INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION [Seasonally adjusted] Points in total index, 1935-39 average for total=100 Indexes, 1935-39=100 Period Total industrial production 1935—39 monthly average . 1943 monthly average- 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average. - _._ 1947: January February _ ... . .« March . . . April-_ . May June .. July..! _ August September October November December 1948: January February. . March1 » _ April 1 10 Preliminary estimate. __ - -- ^_ .. _ ; . ;_.._ 100 239 203 170 187 189 189 190 187 185 184 176 182 187 190 192 192 193 194 192 186 Manufactures Total 100 258 214 177 193 196 197 198 194 191 191 183 188 192 197 199 198 200 201 202 194 Manufactures Durable goods Nondurable goods 100 360 274 192 220 221 222 225 222 218 219 207 210 217 223 224 229 229 226 230 219 100 176 166 165 172 176 176 175 172 170 168 163 169 172 176 178 173 178 180 179 174 Source: Board of Governors pi the Federal Reserve System. Mining 100 132 137 134 149 146 146 148 143 151 148 140 150 153 155 155 156 154 155 140 140 Durable goods Nondurable goods 38 136 104 73 83 84 84 85 84 83 83 79 80 83 84 85 87 87 86 87 83 47 83 78 77 81 83 83 82 81 80 79 76 79 80 83 84 81 83 84 84 82 Mining 15 20 21 21 23 22 22 23 22 23 23 21 23 23 24 24 24 23 24 21 21 • PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE ;MANUFACTURES F^reduction of transportation equipment was up about 5 percent in March; iron and steel, up about 5 percent, reached the highest point since March 1945* PERCE NT OF 1935- 39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT LUMBER AND PRODUCTS 800 400 MONTHLY AVE RAGE MONTHLY AVERAGE F 700 300 600 200 V 500 100 400 0 1 :• •! im j j: 1935-39 jjji *"** jjjjj 1943 1945 _LJ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 t 1 1 I 1 I 1 1 1 • 1 1 11 II 1 1946 1947 1948 IRON AND STEEL 300 300 MONTHLY AVERAGE 1-*XX]V v/ 200 200 100 \P 100 i i i ti 1 i i i ii , , , . , ! . , . . . 0 1935-39 1943 1945 1946 1947 0 1935-39 1948 1943 1945 1 1 1 1 111111 11 i i i i i I i i i ii 1946 1947 1948 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. r~^ m£L COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE MANUFACTURES1 [1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted] Transportation equipment Period 1935—39 monthly average 1943 monthly average-1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947: January February _ March April May--June_ Julv August September October . November December 1 948 : January. .. FebruaryMarch . -„- i -„ __• _ - _- .-.----«. « -- -.- - . — r - « -.-- Lumber and products Iron and steel 100 734 487 232 230 100 130 110 130 144 100 208 183 150 195 229 233 239 237 225 233 217 213 227 232 234 243 142 147 147 144 142 142 133 142 140 143 150 153 192 191 196 195 197 193 181 188 195 204 202 205 244 231 242 156 150 147 203 203 209 1 These are selected groups of the durable manufactures total shown on page 10, The total also includes machinery, nonferrous metals and products, and stone, clay, and glass products. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 11 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE MANUFACTURES The output of petroleum and coal products and of textiles dropped about 3 percent in March. Smaller decreases were registered in the output of manufactured food products and chemical products PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS 300 300 MONTHLY AVERAGE MONTHLY AVERAGE 200 200 100 100 I I I i I I I I II 1935-39 43 1946 45 1947 1935-39 1948 43 45 1947 1946 1948 CHEMICAL PRODUCTS MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS 400 400 MONTHLY AVERAGE 300 300 200 200 TT P ^^>/ 100 100 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 I1 1 1 1935-39 43 45 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 | 1946 1 I/I 1947 1 1 1 1 1 1 f f 1948 1935-39 43 45 1946 1948 1947 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE MANUFACTURESl [1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted] Textiles and products Period 1935-39 monthly average.. 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947: January February March April May June July August September October November December 1948: January February March 1 ;_ _ ... _ '. ... . . ._ ] . Petroleum and coal products Manufactured food products Chemical products 100 153 146 162 163 100 185 235 173 193 100 145 151 150 157 100 384 284 236 251 172 173 172 166 164 155 142 154 160 164 172 163 180 185 185 179 184 191 195 201 203 204 205 208 161 156 157 251 251 1K8 9,^1 155 154 155 157 158 156 158 157 253 250 251 249 248 248 251 255 178 179 174 214 214 208 158 160 158 255 251 250 OKI These are selected groups of the nondurable manufactures total shown on page 10. The total also includes leather and products, alcoholic beverages, tobacco products, paper and paper products, and printing and publishing. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 10 NEW CONSTRUCTION Preliminary estimates indicate that construction increased seasonally in April. MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MILLIONS OP DOLLARS 1,500 I,50O /I:-! FEDERAL, ESTATE, AND !::::::; LOCAL* 1,000 1,000 500 500 1939 1942 1944 1945 F M A M J O A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D NTIAL CONSTRUCTION SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ANO DEPARTMENT OF LABOR, COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC AOVtSCAS NEW CONSTRUCTION [Millions of dollars] Private construction Total new construction Period \ 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average _ 1947 monthly average 1947—January February . > March April.May June Julv August September October... November ._ December 1948—January. February .. March April2 . _ __ : ; _. w ....... . _ '. * _ _ i - __ . . „ '. _ . ... ,. _>; . . -_.,.. _ _-._- — __^ .- ; ._ __._ . _-_ .. Total private Residential (nonfarm) Other Federal, State, and local » 505 1,113 339 384 824 1,069 302 242 145 213 645 823 176 110 45 57 265 411 125 133 101 156 380 411 204 870 194 171 179 246 839 795 826 876 955 1, 070 1, 161 1,242 1,279 1,334 1, 272 1, 176 666 634 648 662 722 811 876 937 962 990 1,001 962 300 284 285 306 342 387 429 461 490 530 565 555 366 350 363 356 380 424 447 476 472 460 436 407 173 161 178 214 233 259 285 305 317 344 271 214 1,157 1,009 1,166 1,269 948 837 941 990 500 400 475 500 448 437 466 490 209 172 225 279 1 3 Includes public residential construction. Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor. 13 NEW HOUSING STARTS Starts in March were about 40 percent above February and about 15 percent above a year ago. THOUSANDS OF UNITS THOUSANDS OF UNITS 100 100 40 20 •* NEW NONFARM FAMILY DWELLING UNITS. SOURCE: COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS DEPARTMENT OF LABOR, NEW HOUSING STARTS New nonfarm units (conventional and prefabricated) Period Total 14 Rural nonfarm 64, 683 71, 583 41, 164 39,910 23, 520 31, 674 1946: January .. , February March '.. . . ... .! ...... April •.. May-. > June . . July... August « . - .. _. September. _ , October .. « November . ._ ..• December « .. 42, 500 49, 300 70, 400 79, 900 83, 400 79, 800 78, 500 81, 300 65, 800 58, 200 47, 800 39, 300 27, 351 31, 625 44, 922 51, 925 55, 671 51, 569 50, 202 52,506 41, 159 34, 638 28, 733 23, 662 15, 149 17, 675 25, 478 27,975 27, 729 28,231 28, 298 28, 794 24, 641 23, 562 19, 067 15, 638 1947: January February.. . . March . April.--. May June « July August September October November , December 40, 100 44, 100 59, 100 69, 500 72, 700 79, 400 80, 100 86, 200 92, 000 93, 800 80,000 62, 000 24, 611 25, 774 33, 674 38, 858 39, 376 43, 005 43, 962 47, 092 49, 313 51, 970 46, 185 35, 095 15, 489 18, 326 25, 426 30, 642 33, 324 36, 395 36, 138 39, 108 42, 687 41,830 33, 815 26, 905 1948: January a 2 . .. 50, 000 February . '..... ^.. 47,000 March*.— — _ — i.:,....._._. 67, 000 \ New .nonfarm family dwelling units, * Preliminary. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Labor. 30, 400 28, 800 41, 000 19, 600 18, 200 26, 000 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average.. Urban __ . ... . • .. -_ . .... I _-• , . ^ . .'.. .. . *. .. EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Expenditures planned by business, exclusive of agriculture, for 1948 are estimated 15 percent higher than actual expenditures for 1947. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 25 ANN UAL TOTALS 15 TRANSPORTATION AND ELECTRIC AND GAS ' .!FUTILITIES ' 1.0 to MANUFACTURING AND MINING 1939 1941 1945 * NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION. SOURCES; SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT (Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal) Transportation Total * Period Manufacturing Mining Railroad 1939 1941 1945 1946 1947 8 1948 _ •- ^ __ 1946: First quarter.. Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1947: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948: First quarter * Second quarter * Second half 8. - - .-- _ _ „_• . - -- ! .« - . __..-. Other Electric and Commercial miscelgas utilities and laneous * 5,200 8,190 6,630 12, 040 16, 200 18,710 1,930 3,400 3,210 5,910 7,460 7,760 380 680 440 560 690 690 280 560 550 570 920 1,620 280 340 320 660 800 780 480 710 630 1,040 1,900 2,300 1, 850 2,490 1,480 3,300 4,430 5,560 8,800 11, 160 13,240 14, 920 4, 400 5,600 6,600 7,040 440 520 640 640 400 520 640 720 520 680 680 800 720 920 1,120 1,440 2,320 2,960 3,600 4,320 12, 640 15, 760 16, 560 19,840 5, 800 7,400 7,480 9,160 600 640 720 840 640 880 920 1,240 720 920 800 760 1,320 1, 800' 2,000 2, 480 3, 600 4,120 4,640 5,360 17, 920 19, 120 18, 900 7,760 8, 000 7,640 800 760 600 1,360 1,560 1,780 720 840 780 2,040 2,400 2,380 5,280 5,600 5, 680 1 Excludes agriculture. 2 Includes trade, service, 1 finance, and communication. Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business. NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other data. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because figures are rounded t o t h e nearest 10,000,000. • • * • " • Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted). is NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES In the first quarter of 1948 new issues, less than the previous quarter, were about the 1947 average. New money accounted for a larger part of the total. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3.0 B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS 3.0 QUARTERLY AVERAGE 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.5 RETIREMENT OF DEBT AND STOCK 1.0 1939 1943 1945 # INCLUDES P R E L I M I N A R Y ESTIMATE FOR MARCH SOURCE: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES PROPOSED USES OF NET PROCEEDS [Millions of dollars] Proposed uses <rf net proceeds Estimated net proceeds Period 1939 quarterly 1943 quarterly 1945 quarterly 1946 quarterly 1947 quarterly average average average _ > average average _ _ 1946: First quarter- _ _ Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter __ , . . _ ; 1947: First quarter Second quarter _ Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948: First quarter 2 • 1 Includes 2 '.... .. . small amount for other purposes. Includes preliminary estimate for March. Source; Securities and Exchange Commission. 16 New money Retirement of debt and stock l 529 287 1,476 1,689 1, 528 81 77 270 820 1, 068 448 210 1,206 869 460 1,032 2,253 1, 562 1, 911 275 645 853 1,506 756 1, 608 708 304 1,018 1, 605 1,267 2, 222 673 932 797 1, 867 344 672 469 354 1,478 1, 332 146 I INVENTORIES AND SALES 1nventories rose slightly in value and sales dropped slightly in February. BILL IONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS MANUFACTURING WHOLESALE 30 30 NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL 20 ^**<*~* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 20 INVENTORIES* ' ~^— ^/^ .^S-^! -^ _ to S*/ ••Mb SALES* 10 "* —-— —*-~ 0 i i i i i 1 I i i i i I i i 1 I J ] 1 i L1 1 1 I 1 1 1 t 1 l i l 1946 1947 1948 BILL.IONS 0 OF DOLLARS 1 1 » \ 1947 \ \ \ \ \ \ \ 1 1 1 1 1948 PERCE NT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE DEPARTMENT STORES 30 400 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 20 SALES** 300 SALES v """""" 0 i i i i i Ji i l t i 1946 RETAIL ll 0 X, NVENTORIES* i i t i• i 1 i i i i i ^ or- S^~ 200 INVENTORIES** -''' ^ 1 NVENTORIES* i i i i i 1i i t i I . i i i i t 1i i t [ | 1946 1947 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 00 1 1948 1946 Ik SALES ARE TOTAL FOR MONTH AND INVENTORIES ARE BOOK VALUE, END OF MONTH. 1947 1 1 1 1 1 I 1948 ** INDEXES COMPUTED FHOM DATA ON RETAIL VALUE OF SALES FOR MONTH AND RETAIL BOOK VALUE OF INVENTORIES, END OF MONTH. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS INVENTORIES AND SALES Manufacturing J Period Inventories 8 Sales4 Retail 2 Wholesale 2 Inventories 8 Sales * Inventories 8 Department stores Sales * -- - - - - - - -±- - -_-._ . 1 Not adjusted for seasonal variation. 3 Adjusted for seasonal variation. 8 Book value, end of month. 4 •.. 16, 369 16, 590 16, 829 16, 837 16, 934 17, 175 18, 010 18, 466 18, 886 19, 533 19, 896 20, 259 20, 805 21, 176 21, 612 22, 058 22, 424 - - 22, 618 22, 778 22, 936 23, 120 23, 398 23, 577 23, 702 24, 000 24, 300 8,913 8,163 9,507 9,956 10, 058 9,702 9,976 11, 157 10, 738 12, 240 12, 426 12, 849 13, 226 12, 940 13, 937 13, 906 13, 688 13, 602 13, 115 13, 651 14, 628 15, 964 14, 678 15, 691 15, 300 14, 900 4,294 4,209 4, 304 4,390 4, 464 4,578 4,685 4,890 5,131 5,343 5,713 5,994 6,248 6,444 6,611 6,778 6,737 6,864 6,726 6,886 6,997 6,943 7,349 7,577 7,618 7,754 9,644 9,868 9,691 9,592 10, 087 10, 370 10, 998 11, 174 11, 402 12, 399 13, 069 13, 052 12, 683 12, 996 12, 627 12, 218 12, 369 12, 541 12, 403 12, 523 13, 263 13, 615 14, 333 13, 697 14, 092 14,028 6,286 6,446 6,522 6,729 6,899 7,043 7,426 7,793 8,216 8,716 8,931 9, 141 9,337 9,582 9,715 9,703 9,502 9,440 9,574 9,838 10, 052 10, 202 10, 199 10, 352 10, 562 10, 841 7,462 7,671 7,783 7,948 8,082 8,101 8,444 8,943 8,811 8,806 8,999 9, 205 9,097 9,285 9,399 9,610 9,681 9,743 9,730 9, 621 10, 162 10,258 10, 485 10, 653 10, 445 10, 374 10, 425 167 171 177 189 200 210 222 221 226 237 256 274 268 274 273 264 252 242 231 227 231 251 273 283 288 303 312 227 248 25S 252 25S 277 272 291 27] 258 27C 276 26£ 26C 27$ 27; 291 28? 28€ 285 292 277 302 30c 284 282 28£ 6 Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for month and retail book value of inventories, end of month. 6 Preliminary. Total for month. Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Sales 1935-39=100 seasonally adjusted 5 Millions of dollars 1946* January. . _ February March - _. April ... May. June July _ _. August September.. October November December 1947: January February . March ...... April May June - .... July August . . September October November •*. December 1948: January fl February .. March 6. _ Inventoried 12 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS The value of exports showed little change in February despite the shorter month; imports increased. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1.6 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1.6 — I 4 1.2 - I .0 2 - 1936-38 1943 M o J A S 0 N D 1945 1948 * ** RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS) AND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED AREAS RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY. EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars] Exports l Period 1936-38 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average , ._ .. . 1947: January February March ._ April May June July .. August September October November December _ 1948: January February March __ 1 2 247 207 877 849 282 346 409 1, 193 1, 198 1, 383 1,362 1, 503 1.320 1,265 1,265 1, 183 1,303 1, 195 1, 199 531 437 444 512 474 463 450 400 481 492 455 601 1,091 1,086 1, 141 546 582 666 1,080 ... . „ . __ Imports 2 1,281 Excess of exports 478 Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas. Recorded general merchandise imports. Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy. 18 40 798 531 440 803 662 761 939 850 1 029 857 815 865 702 811 740 598 545 504 475 Section E: PURCHASING POWER NATIONAL INCOME Moved up moderately in the first quarter. The increase in national income reflected mainly the increase in prices. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 250 ANNUAL TOTALS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES TOTAL NATIONAL INCOME " 200 200 rr:i: CORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION :• PROPRIETORS'AND RENTAL INCOME 150 150 100 100 jCOMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES? 50 50 I 1944 1939 2 1945 3 4 2 1947 1946 I I 2 3 3 4 1948 * PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OP COMMERCE COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars] Period 1939 1944 1945 1946 1947 Total .„ 72.5 182.3 182. 8 178.2 202.6 -_- Compensation of employees 47.8 121.2 122.9 116.8 128. 1 Corporate profProprietors' its and invenand rental Net interest tory valuation income adjustment 14.7 34.4 37.1 41.8 47.8 4.2 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.6 5.8 23.5 19.7 16.5 23.0 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1946: First quarter . Second quarter ... Third quarter Fourth quarter.. 1947: First quarter ...... Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter . 1948: First quarter J ... .... 168.2 173. 5 179.9 191.0 111.5 114.0 119.2 122.2 39.4 39.2 41.9 46.7 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 14.2 17.2 15.6 18.8 194.6 199.8 203.3 212.3 124.7 125.6 128.7 132. 9 46.2 46.7 47.0 51.5 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.8 20.4 23.9 23.9 223.9 215. 0 134.0 53.2 3.9 2 23. 9 1 2 Preliminary estimate. Estimate at level indicated by Commerce's last tabulation of profits after inventory valuation adjustment, which was for the third quarter of 1947. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. 19 CORPORATE PROFITS Were at record dollar levels in 1947. Dividend payments increased in fourth quarter and were substantially above a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 40 ANNUAL TOTALS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL PROFITS BEFORE RATES TAXES* 30 10 10 UNDISTRIBUTED 1929 1943 1939 * NO ALLOWANCE fOff PROFITS INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT. SOURCE : DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS CORPORATE PROFITS ALL PRIVATE CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars] Corporate profits before taxes Period 1929 1939 1943 1946 1947 9.8 6.5 24.5 21. 1 28.7 _ ._- Corporate tax liability 1.4 1.5 14.2 8.6 11.3 Corporate profits after taxes Total 8.4 5.0 10.4 12.5 17.4 Dividend payments 5.8 3.8 4.5 5.6 6.8 Undistributed profits 2.6 1.2 5.9 6.9 10.6 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1946: First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth*quarter 1947: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1 _ J , . . _ 15.2 19.4 22.9 27.1 6.1 8.0 9.3 11.0 9.1 11.5 13.5 16.1 5.1 5.4 5.6 5.9 4.0 6. 1 7.9 10.2 _ 28.9 27.8 28.2 30.0 11.5 10.9 11.1 12.0 17.4 16.9 17.1 18.0 6.3 6.5 6.8 7.3 11.1 10.4 10.3 10.7 Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment, Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. PERSONAL INCOME Decreases in wage and salary receipts and proprietors1 and rental income in February brought total personal income down. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OP DOLLARS ANNUAL TOTALS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 200 - 200 c SOCIAL SECURITY 150 - 150 PROPRIETORS AND RENTAL IN 100 - I 1939 J 'F 1944 1945 M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J A S O N D J F M * * I A I M J I I j J A S I O j N 0 D 'TERMINAL..LEAVE BOND CASHINGS STARTED IN SEPTEMBER, 194? ^^PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE Council of Economic Advisers SOURCE! Department of Commerce. J PERSONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars] Total personal income Period 1939 1944 1945 1946 1947 -__„_- _-- _ _ 72.6 164. 9 171.6 177. 2 196.8 Salaries, wages, Proprietors' Dividends Social security and other and rental and interest and GI payments labor income income 45.6 116.2 116.7 110. 8 122.5 14.7 34.4 37. 1 41.8 47.8 9.2 10.7 11.6 13. 3 14.9 3.0 3.6 6.2 11. 3 11.6 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1947: January February March. April May . _ June. July August September October November December 1948: January February jV^arch i - - -- - '. . .- 189.3 189. 5 190.6 189.4 190. 5 194. 1 194.9 193.8 209.9 203.2 204.2 210.4 118.5 118. 8 118. 7 117.7 119.1 121.9 121.7 123.0 125.0 125.6 128.3 130. 0 45.8 45.9 46.8 46.5 46.5 47. 1 47.4 45.5 48. 1 50.4 49.9 54.0 14.0 14. 1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14. 6 14.7 14.9 15.6 15.4 15.5 15.6 11.0 10.7 10.9 10.9 10.5 10.5 11. 1 10.4 21.2 11.8 10.5 10.8 211. 4 . 207. 1 208.5 130. 1 128.6 54.5 51.7 15.7 15.8 11. 1 11.0 1 Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. 21 CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING The estimated consumer income and expenditures for the first quarter of 1948 suggest a checking of the rate of increase. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES ANNUAL TOTALS 200 200 DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME* 150 150 100 100 CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES 50 1939 1940 1942 1941 50 1944 1943 1945 X PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES. * * PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING [Billions of dollars] Disposable personal income J Period 1939. 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945. . 1946 1947 .- 70.2 75.7 92. 0 116.2 131.6 146.0 150.7 158.4 175.3 _ ... _ Less: Personal consumption expenditures Equals: Personal saving 67.5 72. 1 82. 3 90.8 101.6 110.4 121.7 143.7 164.4 2.7 3.7 9.8 25.4 30.0 35.6 29.0 14.8 10.9 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1946: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter. Fourth quarter 1947: First quarter... Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 2 1948: First quarter ._ 1 8 _ . .... Income less taxes. Preliminary estimate. Source: Department of Commerce. 22 .. . 150. 9 153.8 160.4 168.0 134.3 138.2 147.3 154.9 16.6 15.5 13.1 13.1 . 168.8 170. 1 177.9 183.7 156.9 162.3 165.8 172.5 11.9 7.8 12.1 11.2 185. 5 174.0 11.5 ; PER CAPITA INCOME* An increase in prices during the first quarter more than offset the small increase in per capita income. This resulted in a drop in the real purchasing power of consumers. DOLLARS DOLLARS 1,600 1,600 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS** 1,200 1,200 600 800 CURRENT DOLLARS 400 400 1939 1940 1941 1943 1942 1944 2 3 4 1946 * 1945 * PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES. #"* CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE I ST HALF OF 1947 * /OO. 1 2 3 1947 4 pit* 3 z 4 1948 **# PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. PER CAPITA INCOME Per capita disposable personal income l Consumers' price index, first half of 1947=100 Period Current dollars 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 . _ - _ .. „. „-— „ - -- _ -- . ._ $536 574 691 863 964 • 1, 057 1,080 1,122 1, 216 First half of 1947 dollars 2 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1946* First quarter Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter 1947* First quarterSecond quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948* First quarter 8 -_ - - . . -. .....-- ..- Not adjusted for seasonal variation 1,074 1,091 1,133 1,181 1,285 1, 284 1, 225 1,211 83.6 84.9 92.5 97.4 ._.«. --- 1,180 1, 184 1,232 1,266 1,188 1,177 1,190 1,191 99.3 100.6 103.5 106. 3 - 1,274 1,181 107.9 - .- 64.0 64.5 67.7 75.0 79.5 80.8 82.6 89.6 102. 4 $838 890 1, 021 1,151 1,211 1, 308 1,306 1,251 1, 187 1 Income 2 Current 8 less taxes. dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base first half of 1947= aoov Preliminary estimate. Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor. 23 AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS 1Hourly earnings continued to rise in most industries in early 1948. In February, earnings in bituminous coal rnining were reduced by the loss of overtime pay during a shorter workweek. DOLLA RS PER HOUR DOLLARS PER HOUR RETAIL TRADE MANUFACTURING 1.50 1.50 ^Xlst HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS* •••••• 1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS* 1.00 ^— 1.00 \UR RENT DOLLARS ^CURRENT DOLLARS .50 0 .50 i iit i 1 i t i ii 1946 i t i i i 1 ri i ii 1947 0 1948 i i i i i 1 i i iit 1946 1 t 1 1 1 1 i i i i i 1 i i i i i 1 1 1947 1948 2.00 1st HALF OF 1947 1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS* DOLLARS*^X*--«•*» «*» r 1.50 ~•****/ s^r" — ^ CUF " RENT DOLLARS CUF RENT DOLLARS 1.00 1.00 .50 0 1 1 PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION BITUMINOUS COAL MINING 2.00 1.50 1 .50 1 1 1 i ! 1 I 1 1 1 I 1 i 1 1 I 1 1 1946 I 1 1 1 1947 i i i i i I i i i i i 0 1948 i i i i i 1 i i t ii 1946 i i i i i 1 i i i ii i i i i t Ii i i i i 1947 1948 * CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE Iff HALF OF 1947 "100 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS SELECTED INDUSTRIES Manufacturing Retail trade Bituminous coal mining Private building construction 1 Period Current dollars First half of 1947 dollars ? Current dollars First half of 1947 dollars 2 Current dollars First half of 1947 dollars 3 Current dollars First half of 1947 dollars a 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average.. 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average $0. 633 .729 1. 019 1.023 1.084 1.221 $0. 989 1.077 1.261 1.238 1. 210 1. 192 $0. 536 .568 .724 .773 .878 .991 $0. 838 .839 .896 .936 .980 .968 $0. 886 .993 .1. 186 1.240 1.401 1.644 $1. 384 1.467 1.468 1.501 1.564 1.605 $0. 932 1.010 1.319 1.379 1.478 1.676 $1. 456 1.492 1.632 1.669 1.650 1.637 1947: January.. _. February March . April . May June July August * September October November ... December 1. 161 1, 170 1. 180 1.186 1.207 1.226 1.230 1.236 1.249 1.258 1.268 1.278 1. 177 1. 187 1. 173 1. 180 1.202 1.213 1.207 1. 198 1. 185 1.194 1. 195 1. 189 .953 .957 .960 .974 .985 .996 1.003 1.003 1.012 1.013 1.025 1. 016 .967 .971 .954 .969 .981 .985 .984 .972 .960 .961 .966 .945 1.491 1.491 1.484 1.483 1.470 1.489 1.740 1.787 1.819 1.798 1.851 1.826 1.512 1. 512 1.475 1.476 1.464 1. 473 1. 708 1. 732 1.726 1.706 1.745 1.699 1.594 1.598 1.610 1.634 1.656 1.661 1.669 1.689 1.718 1.738 1.765 1.774 1.617 1.621 1.600 1.626 1.649 1. 643 1.638 1.637 1.630 1.649 1.664 1.650 1.286 1.290 1.293 1. 184 1. 197 1.204 1. 044 1.050 .961 .974 1.847 1. 826 1.701 1.694 1. 781 1.809 1.640 1.678 '. _ 1948: January 8 February March3. 1 Covers only employees 2 Current dollars divided 8 _ _ at the site of privately financed building projects. by consumers' price index on the base first half of 1947=100. Preliminary. Source: Department of Labor. 24 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS EEarnings in bituminous coal mining dropped in February because of the shorter workweek. Preliminary indicate that earnings in manufacturing were still slightly below the all-time high reached in December. ; rriarch data i OOLL.ARS PER WEEK DOLLARS PER WEEK MANUFACTURING RETAIL TRADE 60 60 CURRENT DOLLARS ^^M«* CURRENT DOLLARS 40 40 M^l 1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS* * 1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS 20 *tt 2O i i t i t 1i i i i t 1946 0 i i t i i 1 i iiiii 1947 t 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 t t t i i 1 i i iii 1946 0 1 1948 BITUMINOUS COAL MINING 1 1 1 1 1 1 I I I I I 1 1947 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1948 PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION 100 100 80 80 CURRENT DOLLARS CURRENT DOLLARS N ^•i 60 60 Ntt 1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS ' 1st HA -F 40 40 20 20 1 II 1f 1 1 I1 f 1 1946 0 i* 1 I 1 1 11 t 1 t 11 1947 —^^^T f 1 f f 1 i 1 M t I 0 1948 .... .1 ..... 1946 OF 1947 / DOLLARS* * t 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 t 1 M 1947 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1948 ft-* f CURRENT DOLLARS 01 VIDEO BY CONSUMER'S PRICE INDEX ON BASE 1ST HALF OF 1947 • IOO COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS EARNINGS DATA DISTORTED DURIN8 THESE MONTHS BECAUSE OF WORK STOPPAGES OR VACATtONS. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS SELECTED INDUSTRIES Manufacturing Period Current dollars 1939 monthly average ... ............ 1941 monthly average....... ...„.!..„ 1944 monthly average— ; 1945 monthly average............ ... 1946 Urtonthly average^ 1947 monthly average..... 1947* January February. March April May June July August September. October March - ._ ................... ....... . ................... . ' ta. __...-_...----_---........-..-.--.-.. . -..-.-------------. ..--- . -. — ................ December .. 1948* January - ...... .... 8 - -- ...... --•+ -•- First half of 1947 dollars a Retail trade Current dollars First half of 1947 dollars 2 Current dollars First half of 1947 dollars 3 Private building construction * Current dollars First half of 1947 dollars' $23. 86 29. 58 46.08 44.39 43.74 49. 25 $37. 28 43.69 57. 03 53.74 48.82 48.10 $21. 17 21.94 26.58 28.31 32.55 36. 70 $33. 08 32.40 32.90 34. 27 36.33 35.84 $23. 88 30. 86 51. 27 52. 25 58.03 66. 82 $37. 31 45.58 6a45 63. 26 6477 65.25 $30.39 35.14 52.18 53.73 56.24 63.28 $47.48 51.91 6458 65.05 62.77 61. 80 47.10 47.29 47.69 47.50 48.44 49. 33 48. 98 49.17 50.47 51.05 51.29 52.69 47.77 47. 96 47.41 47. 26 48.25 48.79 48.07 47. 65 47.88 48.43 48.34 49.01 35. 02 35.27 35. 31 35.93 36.50 37. 82 37.99 38.14 37.06 36.74 37.14 37.51 35.52 35. 77 35.10 35. 75 36. 35 37. 41 37. 28 36.96 35.16 34.86 35.00 3489 69.54 65.30 64.90 5414 65. 51 67. 09 54 87 70. 23 71. 19 71. 91 71.77 75. 22 70.53 66. 23 6451 5a87 65.25 66.36 53. 85 68.05 67.54 68. 23 67.64 69. 97 59.97 58.92 61. 23 60. 53 62.38 62.68 63.30 66.97 65.22 66.14 6455 67.31 60.82 59.76 60.86 60.23 62. 13 62.00 62.12 6489 61.88 62.75 60.84 62.61 52.14 51.83 52.25 48.01 48.08 4a65 37.62 38.33 34.64 35.56 75.78 70.54 69. 78 65.44 66.28 66.22 61.03 61.43 1 Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects. 2 Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base first half Of 1 Preliminary. Source: Department of Labor. Bituminous coal mining 1947= ado. 25 FARM INCOME The .purchasing power of farm income in March and April continued considerably below last year's level. Dollar income was slightly below a year ago while prices paid were substantially higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS I I I 1939 40 41 I 42 I 43 I I ( I I ( I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 44 '45 I I I I I I I I I I I J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O .N D J F M A M J J A S O N O 1946 1947 1948 * CASH RECEIPTS FKOM MARKET I NO AND GOVERNMENT PAYMENTS. ** FARM INCOME IH CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED 8Y Tfif INDEX OF PRIGfS PAID, MTffifSr, AND TAXCS ON THg BASe 1939 • 100. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS FARM INCOME Farm income (millions of current dollars)1 Period 1939 monthly average 1940 monthly average •. .-....•„, .. .. 1941 monthly average .! .... 1942 monthly average ..; 1943 monthly average.. . . . . 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average. :,.. L ' " '" 1946 monthly average. ... .. 1947 monthly average . . . . ....... 1947: January February March April May June July. August September October November December ; ... •.._ 1948: January February.! ... March*..... April* .._. . Farm, income, (millions of 1939 dollars)* 723 761 981 1,340 1 678 1, 753 1 857 2 110 2, 543 100. 0 100 8 106 5 121 0 130 6 13Q 3 138 7 155 6 186 3 173 4 178 2 182 3 184. 7 183 9 185 5 185 5 188 7 191 9 192 7 194. 4 197 6 1 317 1 065 I 139 ....... 2 284 1, 897 2 076 1 974 2 026 2 211 2 662 2,517 3, 060 3 773 3 109 2,927 . „.__ „...„.... ....;.. 2 534 1,866 1 961 1,951 202 200 199 200 i 052 933 984 972 .., ; ... i..li... . _ . ....... ' . . ., . r.... ; ....._; ....... Prices paid, interest, and taxes, 1939= 100 « .; . • ., • ... . ... . 4 0 2 8 * Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments, Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1939=100.. Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, and taxes, 1939- = 100. Preliminary, Source: Department of Agriculture. 2 8 4 26 723 755 001 1 107 1 285 1 286 V OOQ 1 <**ifi 1 365 1 OfiQ i 102 1 1Q9 1 435 1 334 1 595 1 958 i 509 1 481 AVERAGE FAMILY INCOME All groups received more income in 1946 than before the war. Greatest relative increases were in the lower and middle groups. MONEY INCOME BEFORE TAXES, (946 DOLLARS FAMILIES* 2,000 GROUPED FROM LOWEST TO HIGHEST INCOME 4,000 6,000 6,000 10,000 LOWEST FIFTH SECOND FIFTH THIRD FIFTH FOURTH FIFTH HIGHEST FIFTH * INCLUDES SINGLE INDIVIDUALS. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC AOVIftEftS SOURCE: THE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JANUARY 1948. AVERAGE FAMILY INCOME Money income before taxes, 1946 dollars Percent increase Families grouped from lowest to highest income * 1935-36 Lowest fifth. *. _ Second fifth..... Third fifth * Fourth fifth Highest fifth * , .... ..--.... „....„ .„ .^. ............ ........... Average for all families l . . 1941 1946 1935-36 to 1946 1941 to 1946 $446 069 1, 515 2, 284 5,928 $498 1,275 2,243 3,225 7,418 $8352,023 3,050 4,201 8,921 87 109 101 84 50 68 59 36 30 20 2, 229 2, 932 3, 806 71 30 1 Includes single individuals. Source: The Economic Report of the President, January 1948, page 18« 27 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Showed little change in the first quarter, according to preliminary estimates. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS £00 800 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES TOTAL EXPENDITURES X 150 100 * ** i >\ , -i" • •£ NONDURABLE GOODS % 5iO 50. I 1939 1944 2 1945 3 1946 # PRELIMINARY I.. 2 3 1947 4 2 3 4 1948 ESTIMATE. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars] teriod Total . i 1939 .. ^ 1944LL..U. . . . - ' . ' - ' • 1945 --.-.-...._- ; 1946 „......„. 1947 a - j, ........ .....,.—. * . Nondurable goods 67.5 110. 4 121. 7 143.7 164.4 35.3 67.2 75.3 87.1 99.3 Durable goods 6.7 6.8 8.0 14.9 19.8 Services 25.5 36.5 38.4 41.7 45.3 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1946: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter..^ Fourth quarter. 1947: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948: First quarter l ..T ... . ^.,^»w.., . U „„„„ .'. . . ,^, ... 134.3 138.2 147. 3 154.9 82.6 83. 2 88.9 93.6 ia 2 4ai 156.9 162.3 165.8 172.5 94.7 98.4 99.9 104.2 18.2 19. 3 20.2 21.3 440 446 45.7 47.0 174.0 105.0 21.5 47.5 4 1 Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding* Source: Department of Commerce. 11.4 13. 9 16.2 40.4 41.2 42,1 CONSUMER CREDIT In March total consumer credit regained the December peak,with the drop in charge accounts compensated by a like rise in instalment credit. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 12 - 12 10 1929 1939 1941 1943 J F M A M J J A S O N D ' J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S END OF YEAR SINGLE PAYMENT LOANS AND SERVICE CREDIT •rve System SOURCE: Board of Govei CONSUMER CREDIT ESTIMATED AMOUNTS OUTSTANDING [Billions of dollars] Total consumer credit End of period 1947: January February March April May June . July August September October November >_ December .* 1948: January . February March - __ _ _ - - -- '. ---- 2.7 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.3 3.1 3.6 10.2 13.4 10.0 10.0 10.4 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.7 12. 1 12.6 13.4 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.7 6.2 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 13.0 12.9 13.4 6.2 6.2 6.5 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.6 5.3 6.6 > Other consumer credit 2 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.5 2.0 9. 9 - Charge accounts 3.2 4.4 5.9 2.0 2.4 4.0 6.2 7.6 8.0 1929 1939 1941 1943 1945 1946 1947 Instalment credit l 3. 1 3.6 2. 8 * Includes automobile and other sale credit and repair and modernization loans insured by Federal Housing Administration. Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: .Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 2 O N D Section F: MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE MONEY SUPPLY Private demand deposits dropped $3 billion in March. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 150 150 125 125 U.S. GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS>$xS£SSB 100 100 75 50 1929 1939 1941 1943 1946 J F M*A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 1945 END OF Y E A R 1947 1946 1948 ^PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE END OF MONTH SOURCE: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Council of Economic Advisers MONEY SUPPLY [Billions of dollars] End of period 1929. 1939. 1941. 1943. 1945. 1946. 1947. 1947: January ... February March April. May June.. July... August September October November December.. 1948: January.. February March 3_ Total money supply Currency outside banks Adjusted demand deposits 1 U. S. Government deposits 2 26 5 3 6 22 8 0 2 37. 0 6, 4 29. 8 .8 50 5 9 6 39 0 19 90. 1 18. 8 60. 8 10 4 126 9 26 5 75 9 24 6 113. 1 26. 7 83. 3 31 115. 1 87. 2 26.5 1. 4 82. 5 111. 7 26. 1 3. 1 ... . ._ 110. 5 26 2 80 6 37 110. 2 26 1 80. 4 3. 7 2 7 110. 1 26. 1 81. 3 . 109. 8 26. 1 81. 5 2. 2 109. 8 82 1 26 3 14 26. 0 83. 2 110. 6 1. 4 111.3 26. 2 83. 4 1. 7 84.2 112.5 26.4 1.9 26.3 85.4 113. 5 1. 8 85.9 114.4 26.6 1. 9 115. 1 87 2 26 5 14 .. „ . 25. 8 113.7 86. 6 14 ;„_. 112. 2 25.7 84. 6 1. 8 25.6 2.4 109.6 81.6 1 Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection. 2 Beginning December 1938, inpludes TJ. S.'Treasurer's time deposits, open account. 8 ^Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Bpard of Governors pf the Federal Reserve System. 30 BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS Commercial bank loans increased a little in March. Investments in U.S. securities, however, declined more than $2 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 125 125 TOTAL (All commercial banks) 100 100 INVESTMENT IN U. S.GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 75 75 50 50 25 25 1929 1939 1945 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M * A 1947 END OF YEAR M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 1949 1948 END OF MONTH PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE SOURCE: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Council of Economic Advisers BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS [Billions of dollars] Investments End of period 1929 1939. 1945 1946 1947. .. _._ 1947: January February March April _ May June July _ August September .. October November . « December „ 1948: January.; February March * ._ ___ -' .. __ _ ____ _ _ - _ .. . „ . _ - . .. and investments Bank loans 49. 5 40. 7 124.0 114. 0 116. 4 36. 0 17.2 26. 1 31. 1 38. 1 13. 5 23.4 97. 9 82. 9 78.3 4. 8 16.3 90. 6 74.8 69. 3 8. 7 7. 1 7.3 8. 1 9.0 113. 8 113.0 113. 1 113.2 112. 9 112. 8 113.4 114.0 115.3 116.4 116. 7 116. 4 31.4 31. 9 32. 3 32. 8 33. 1 33. 7 34.0 34. 9 35. 6 36. 9 37. 7 38. 1 82.4 81. 1 80. 8 80. 4 79. 8 79. 1 79. 4 79. 1 79.7 79. 5 79.0 78.3 744 73. 1 72. 5 72.0 71. 5 70. 5 70.7 70.3 70.8 70. 5 70. 1 69.3 8.0 8.0 8.3 8.4 8. 3 8. 5 8.7 8.8 8.9 9. 0 8.9 9.0 116. 6 115. 5 113. 6 38.2 38.7 38.9 78.4 76.9 74. 7 69.4 67.9 65. 5 9.0 9.0 9.3 Total U. S. Government securities Other securities 1 Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 31 FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC The excess of Federal cash receipts over cash payments in the first quarter 1948 was $6.4 billion as compared with $ 5.2 billion in the first quarter 1947. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 20 20 QUARTERLY TOTALS, NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL IS 15 10 10 I 2 2 3 3 2 1947 1946 3 1948 * PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE SOURCE: TREASURY DEPARTMENT COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC [Millions of dollars] Calendar year and quarter 1946: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1947: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948: First quarter 1 __ _ Cash receipts Cash payments _._ . __- • . . ._ . . . . 14, 153 11 098 10,377 9 870 14, 962 11, 430 10 470 10,011 15, 732 13, 648 13 599 9, 106 8,909 9, 772 12, 198 10 503 8, 666 9,322 Excess of receipts (+) or payments (— ) + 505 — 2, 501 + 1,271 + 961 + 5, 190 — 768 — 33 + 1,345 + 6,410 1 Preliminary estimate. Source: Treasury Department. 32 U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE* IMS