Full text of Economic Indicators : March 1999
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106th Congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators March 1999 (Includes data available as of April 7, 1999) Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1999 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) CONNIE MACK, Florida, Chairman JIM SAXTON, New Jersey, Vice Chairman SENATE WILLIAM ROTH (Delaware) ROBERT F. BENNETT (Utah) ROD GRAMS (Minnesota) SAM BROWNBACK (Kansas) JEFF SESSIONS (Alabama) JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico) PAUL SARBANES (Maryland) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) CHARLES ROBB (Virginia) HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES MARK SANFORD (South Carolina) JOHN DOOLITTLE (California) TOM CAMPBELL (California) JOE PITTS (Pennsylvania) PAUL RYAN (Wisconsin) FORTNEY PETE STARK (California) CAROLYN MALONEY (New York) DAVID MINGE (Minnesota) MEL WATT (North Carolina) SHELLEY S. HYMES, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS JANET L. YELLEN, Chair REBECCA M. BLANK, Member ROBERT Z. LAWRENCE, Member-Nominee [PUBLIC LAW 120—81ST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—1ST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled ‘‘Economic Indicators’’ Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled ‘‘Economic Indicators,’’ and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts prepared by the Art Production Section, Design and Graphics Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $3.00 a single copy ($3.75 foreign), or by subscription at $33.00 per year ($41.25 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 For sale by the U.S. Government Printing Office Superintendent of Documents, Mail Stop: SSOP, Washington, DC 20402–9328 ISBN 0–16–058298–9 ii TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT In the fourth quarter of 1998, according to revised estimates, current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) rose 6.9 percent (annual rate), real GDP (GDP in chained 1992 dollars) rose 6.0 percent, and the implicit price deflator rose 0.8 percent. [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Personal Gross Gross conprivate domestic sumption domestic product expendi- investtures ment Exports and imports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total Total National defense Nondefense State and local Final Gross sales of domestic domestic purproduct chases 1 Addendum: Gross national product 1990 ......................... 1991 ......................... 1992 ......................... 1993 ......................... 1994 ......................... 1995 ......................... 1996 ......................... 1997 ......................... 1998 r ....................... 5,743.8 5,916.7 6,244.4 6,558.1 6,947.0 7,269.6 7,661.6 8,110.9 8,511.0 3,839.3 3,975.1 4,219.8 4,459.2 4,717.0 4,953.9 5,215.7 5,493.7 5,807.9 799.7 ¥71.3 736.2 ¥20.5 790.4 ¥29.5 876.2 ¥60.7 1,007.9 ¥90.9 1,043.2 ¥83.9 1,131.9 ¥91.2 1,256.0 ¥93.4 1,367.1 ¥151.2 557.3 601.8 639.4 658.6 721.2 819.4 873.8 965.4 959.0 628.6 622.3 669.0 719.3 812.1 903.3 965.0 1,058.8 1,110.2 1,176.1 1,225.9 1,263.8 1,283.4 1,313.0 1,356.4 1,405.2 1,454.6 1,487.1 503.6 522.6 528.0 518.3 510.2 509.1 518.4 520.2 520.6 373.1 383.5 375.8 360.7 349.2 344.4 351.0 346.0 340.4 130.4 139.1 152.2 157.7 161.0 164.7 167.4 174.3 180.2 672.6 703.4 735.8 765.0 802.8 847.3 886.8 934.4 966.5 5,735.8 5,919.0 6,237.4 6,537.6 6,885.7 7,238.9 7,629.5 8,043.5 8,451.6 5,815.1 5,937.2 6,274.0 6,618.8 7,037.9 7,353.5 7,752.8 8,204.3 8,662.2 5,764.9 5,932.4 6,255.5 6,576.8 6,955.2 7,287.1 7,674.0 8,102.9 8,490.5 1995: I .................... II ................... III ................. IV .................. 1996: I .................... II ................... III ................. IV .................. 1997: I .................... II ................... III ................. IV .................. 1998: I .................... II .................. III ................. IV r ................ 7,170.8 7,210.9 7,304.8 7,391.9 7,495.3 7,629.2 7,703.4 7,818.4 7,955.0 8,063.4 8,170.8 8,254.5 8,384.2 8,440.6 8,537.9 8,681.2 4,862.5 4,931.5 4,986.4 5,035.3 5,108.2 5,199.0 5,242.5 5,313.2 5,402.4 5,438.8 5,540.3 5,593.2 5,676.5 5,773.7 5,846.7 5,934.8 1,058.9 1,029.6 1,030.6 1,053.6 1,075.3 1,118.3 1,167.9 1,166.0 1,206.4 1,259.9 1,265.7 1,292.0 1,366.6 1,345.0 1,364.4 1,392.4 ¥94.7 ¥108.0 ¥74.5 ¥58.4 ¥75.7 ¥94.0 ¥115.5 ¥79.6 ¥93.3 ¥86.8 ¥94.7 ¥98.8 ¥123.7 ¥159.3 ¥165.5 ¥156.2 787.8 803.4 835.1 851.5 856.6 863.0 861.4 914.2 930.2 961.1 981.7 988.6 973.3 949.6 936.2 976.8 882.5 911.4 909.6 909.9 932.3 957.0 976.9 993.8 1,023.5 1,047.9 1,076.4 1,087.4 1,097.1 1,108.9 1,101.7 1,133.0 1,344.1 1,357.8 1,362.3 1,361.4 1,387.5 1,406.0 1,408.6 1,418.8 1,439.4 1,451.5 1,459.5 1,468.1 1,464.9 1,481.2 1,492.3 1,510.2 512.3 511.7 511.2 501.2 517.1 523.1 519.0 514.6 517.0 522.9 521.0 520.1 511.6 520.7 519.4 530.7 346.1 348.1 345.5 337.9 350.3 355.6 351.3 346.7 341.1 349.1 347.1 346.5 331.6 339.8 343.7 346.4 166.2 163.6 165.7 163.3 166.8 167.4 167.7 167.9 175.9 173.8 173.9 173.6 180.0 180.9 175.7 184.3 831.8 846.2 851.1 860.2 870.4 882.9 889.6 904.2 922.4 928.6 938.5 947.9 953.3 960.4 972.9 979.5 7,111.8 7,185.6 7,287.7 7,370.4 7,479.1 7,600.6 7,653.6 7,784.6 7,895.2 7,979.9 8,116.2 8,182.6 8,288.7 8,401.3 8,480.9 8,635.5 7,265.5 7,318.9 7,379.3 7,450.3 7,571.0 7,723.2 7,818.9 7,898.0 8,048.2 8,150.2 8,265.5 8,353.3 8,508.0 8,599.9 8,703.4 8,837.4 7,189.3 7,233.3 7,313.2 7,412.6 7,515.0 7,643.3 7,708.6 7,829.0 7,952.4 8,062.3 8,162.0 8,234.9 8,369.4 8,421.8 8,510.9 8,660.0 1 GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1 REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT [Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross domestic product Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Nonresidential fixed investment Residential fixed investment Exports and imports of goods and services Change in business inventories 1990 .................. 1991 .................. 1992 .................. 1993 .................. 1994 .................. 1995 .................. 1996 .................. 1997 .................. 1998 r ................ 6,136.3 6,079.4 6,244.4 6,389.6 6,610.7 6,761.7 6,994.8 7,269.8 7,551.9 4,132.2 4,105.8 4,219.8 4,343.6 4,486.0 4,605.6 4,752.4 4,913.5 5,153.3 585.2 547.7 557.9 600.2 648.4 710.6 776.6 859.4 960.7 220.6 193.4 225.6 242.6 267.0 256.8 275.9 282.8 312.0 10.4 ¥3.0 7.0 22.1 60.6 27.7 30.0 63.2 57.4 1995: I ............ II ........... III ......... IV .......... 1996: I ............ II ........... III ......... IV .......... 1997: I ............ II ........... III ......... IV .......... 1998: I ............ II ........... III ......... IV r ......... 6,717.5 6,724.2 6,779.5 6,825.8 6,882.0 6,983.9 7,020.0 7,093.1 7,166.7 7,236.5 7,311.2 7,364.6 7,464.7 7,498.6 7,566.5 7,677.7 4,555.3 4,593.6 4,623.4 4,650.0 4,692.1 4,746.6 4,768.3 4,802.6 4,853.4 4,872.7 4,947.0 4,981.0 5,055.1 5,130.2 5,181.8 5,246.0 698.4 710.2 711.7 722.3 744.8 764.4 790.1 807.0 820.9 848.2 882.2 886.2 931.9 960.4 958.7 991.9 259.9 249.5 255.6 262.1 268.0 280.2 279.0 276.3 278.4 282.5 282.3 287.9 298.5 309.1 316.5 324.1 54.3 21.7 14.7 20.1 14.4 26.1 47.5 32.1 56.3 79.0 51.0 66.5 91.4 38.2 55.7 44.2 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Net exports ¥61.9 ¥22.3 ¥29.5 ¥70.2 ¥104.6 ¥96.5 ¥111.2 ¥136.1 ¥238.2 Exports Imports Total Total 564.4 626.3 1,250.4 599.9 622.2 1,258.0 639.4 669.0 1,263.8 658.2 728.4 1,252.1 712.4 817.0 1,252.3 792.6 889.0 1,254.5 860.0 971.2 1,268.2 970.0 1,106.1 1,285.0 984.7 1,222.9 1,296.9 ¥109.5 763.9 ¥114.7 774.0 ¥86.8 806.3 ¥74.8 826.1 ¥95.5 833.6 ¥113.5 845.5 ¥140.1 849.9 ¥95.9 911.1 ¥121.5 929.4 ¥131.6 963.6 ¥142.4 988.1 ¥149.0 998.8 ¥198.5 991.9 ¥245.2 972.1 ¥259.0 965.3 ¥250.0 1,009.6 873.4 888.7 893.1 900.9 929.1 958.9 990.0 1,007.0 1,050.9 1,095.2 1,130.5 1,147.8 1,190.4 1,217.3 1,224.3 1,259.6 1 GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. 1,256.2 1,259.9 1,257.6 1,244.5 1,254.5 1,276.2 1,271.1 1,271.2 1,277.7 1,284.4 1,288.9 1,289.2 1,283.0 1,294.8 1,299.6 1,310.3 National defense Nondefense State and local Final sales of domestic product Gross domestic purchases 1 Addendum: Gross national product 541.9 539.4 528.0 505.7 486.6 470.6 465.6 458.0 453.3 401.5 397.5 375.8 354.4 336.9 323.5 319.1 308.9 300.4 140.5 142.0 152.2 151.2 149.5 146.9 146.2 148.6 152.1 708.6 718.7 735.8 746.4 765.7 783.9 802.7 827.1 843.8 6,126.7 6,082.6 6,237.4 6,368.9 6,551.2 6,731.7 6,961.6 7,203.7 7,491.3 6,199.8 6,101.6 6,274.0 6,459.0 6,712.7 6,855.0 7,101.1 7,396.5 7,765.9 6,157.0 6,094.9 6,255.5 6,408.0 6,619.1 6,779.5 7,008.4 7,266.2 7,537.8 478.6 476.2 473.1 454.6 463.5 472.6 467.0 459.5 456.3 460.4 458.9 456.5 446.1 454.1 452.5 460.6 328.3 328.4 323.9 313.3 318.7 325.0 319.8 313.0 305.0 311.7 310.2 308.7 293.3 300.3 303.5 304.6 150.0 147.6 148.8 141.1 144.5 147.3 146.8 146.1 150.7 148.2 148.2 147.3 151.9 152.9 148.4 155.2 777.6 783.7 784.5 790.0 791.0 803.6 804.2 811.8 821.5 824.2 830.1 832.9 837.1 840.9 847.3 850.0 6,661.8 6,700.0 6,761.7 6,803.3 6,863.6 6,954.7 6,970.3 7,057.9 7,108.1 7,155.5 7,256.3 7,294.8 7,372.5 7,456.4 7,507.6 7,628.9 6,823.3 6,834.6 6,863.5 6,898.4 6,974.0 7,092.8 7,152.6 7,185.2 7,281.3 7,359.4 7,443.1 7,502.1 7,644.9 7,718.6 7,798.8 7,901.3 6,735.9 6,746.3 6,788.9 6,846.8 6,902.1 6,999.0 7,027.1 7,105.3 7,167.8 7,239.3 7,307.0 7,350.7 7,455.2 7,485.9 7,546.7 7,663.3 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT [Index numbers, 1992=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Personal consumption expenditures Period Gross domestic product Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Gross private domestic investment Services Exports and imports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed Exports Imports Total National defense Nondefense State and local 1990 .................. 1991 .................. 1992 .................. 1993 .................. 1994 .................. 1995 ................. 1996 ................. 1997 ................. 1998 r ................ 93.60 97.32 100.00 102.64 105.09 107.51 109.53 111.57 112.70 92.91 96.82 100.00 102.66 105.15 107.56 109.75 111.81 112.70 96.59 98.54 100.00 101.22 103.27 103.72 102.75 100.66 98.32 94.62 98.06 100.00 101.46 102.77 103.95 106.08 107.69 107.66 91.22 95.78 100.00 103.62 106.85 110.37 113.32 116.61 118.80 98.41 99.92 100.00 100.65 101.89 102.40 101.46 100.15 97.66 97.80 98.85 100.00 103.71 107.11 110.90 113.02 115.96 118.44 98.74 100.31 100.00 100.07 101.23 103.39 101.60 99.53 97.39 100.37 100.02 100.00 98.75 99.39 101.61 99.36 95.72 90.78 92.93 96.88 100.00 102.50 104.85 108.17 111.34 113.58 114.84 92.93 96.47 100.00 101.76 103.64 106.47 109.98 112.00 113.29 92.84 97.94 100.00 104.29 107.70 112.13 114.57 117.27 118.50 94.91 97.86 100.00 102.49 104.85 108.09 110.48 112.96 114.54 1995: I ............ II ........... III ......... IV .......... 106.75 107.24 107.75 108.29 106.74 107.35 107.85 108.29 104.03 103.86 103.63 103.39 103.49 103.88 104.11 104.34 109.11 110.02 110.82 111.52 102.17 102.53 102.50 102.38 110.20 110.67 111.09 111.64 103.12 103.80 103.57 103.07 101.03 102.55 101.84 100.99 107.03 107.44 108.06 110.24 105.41 106.00 106.68 107.85 110.82 110.82 111.32 115.72 106.97 107.97 108.49 108.89 1996: I ............ II ........... III ......... IV .......... 108.91 109.24 109.74 110.23 108.87 109.53 109.94 110.63 103.49 102.83 102.56 102.13 105.12 106.03 106.11 107.04 112.10 112.94 113.70 114.52 101.91 101.36 101.38 101.21 111.94 112.39 113.60 114.14 102.76 102.07 101.36 100.35 100.35 99.79 98.68 98.69 111.57 110.67 111.15 112.00 109.91 109.41 109.85 110.77 115.44 113.67 114.24 114.94 110.04 109.87 110.61 111.38 1997: I ............ II ........... III ......... IV .......... 111.00 111.43 111.76 112.08 111.31 111.62 111.99 112.29 101.92 100.94 100.23 99.63 107.56 107.52 107.72 107.96 115.50 116.29 117.03 117.58 100.77 100.28 100.02 99.61 114.79 115.34 116.49 117.19 100.09 99.74 99.35 98.97 97.39 95.68 95.21 94.73 113.29 113.57 113.52 113.93 111.85 112.02 111.90 112.25 116.70 117.22 117.32 117.85 112.28 112.67 113.06 113.82 1998: I ............ II ........... III ......... IV r ......... 112.32 112.56 112.84 113.07 112.29 112.54 112.83 113.13 99.28 98.73 97.99 97.36 107.36 107.42 107.81 108.06 117.99 118.54 119.04 119.60 98.86 98.08 97.18 96.57 117.20 117.69 118.76 119.99 98.13 97.68 96.98 96.75 92.16 91.09 89.98 89.95 114.67 114.68 114.79 115.22 113.05 113.14 113.24 113.72 118.46 118.31 118.43 118.77 113.88 114.22 114.82 115.24 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES: INDEXES AND PERCENT CHANGES [Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Percent change from preceding period 1 Index numbers, 1992=100 Period 1987 ............................................................... 1988 ............................................................... 1989 ............................................................... 1990 ............................................................... 1991 ............................................................... 1992 ............................................................... 1993 ............................................................... 1994 ............................................................... 1995 ............................................................... 1996 ............................................................... 1997 ............................................................... 1998 r .............................................................. 1993: I .......................................................... II ......................................................... III ....................................................... IV ........................................................ 1994: I .......................................................... II ......................................................... III ....................................................... IV ........................................................ 1995: I .......................................................... II ........................................................ III ....................................................... IV ....................................................... 1996: I .......................................................... II ........................................................ III ....................................................... IV ....................................................... 1997: I .......................................................... II ........................................................ III ....................................................... IV ....................................................... 1998: I .......................................................... II ........................................................ III ....................................................... IV r ...................................................... 1 Percent Real GDP (chain-type quantity index) GDP (current dollars) 75.14 80.87 87.10 91.98 94.75 100.00 105.02 111.25 116.42 122.69 129.89 136.30 103.20 104.24 105.29 107.36 108.81 110.68 111.88 113.63 114.83 115.48 116.98 118.38 120.03 122.18 123.36 125.21 127.39 129.13 130.85 132.19 134.27 135.17 136.73 139.02 GDP implicit price deflator GDP chain-type price index 90.47 93.93 97.08 98.27 97.36 100.00 102.32 105.87 108.28 112.02 116.42 120.94 101.34 101.85 102.39 103.72 104.49 105.70 106.17 107.11 107.58 107.68 108.57 109.31 110.21 111.84 112.42 113.59 114.77 115.89 117.08 117.94 119.54 120.09 121.17 122.95 83.06 86.10 89.72 93.64 97.32 100.00 102.64 105.09 107.51 109.54 111.57 112.71 101.85 102.38 102.83 103.52 104.16 104.74 105.39 106.07 106.74 107.26 107.76 108.30 108.90 109.28 109.77 110.21 110.97 111.45 111.77 112.09 112.33 112.57 112.85 113.08 changes based on unrounded data. Quarterly percent changes are at annual rates. Real GDP (chain-type quantity index) GDP (current dollars) 83.06 86.09 89.72 93.60 97.32 100.00 102.64 105.09 107.51 109.53 111.57 112.70 101.84 102.35 102.83 103.51 104.13 104.71 105.39 106.09 106.75 107.24 107.75 108.29 108.91 109.24 109.74 110.23 111.00 111.43 111.76 112.08 112.32 112.56 112.84 113.07 6.1 7.6 7.7 5.6 3.0 5.5 5.0 5.9 4.6 5.4 5.9 4.9 3.9 4.1 4.1 8.1 5.5 7.1 4.4 6.4 4.3 2.3 5.3 4.9 5.7 7.3 3.9 6.1 7.2 5.6 5.4 4.2 6.4 2.7 4.7 6.9 GDP chain-type price index 2.9 3.8 3.4 1.2 ¥.9 2.7 2.3 3.5 2.3 3.4 3.9 3.9 .1 2.0 2.1 5.3 3.0 4.7 1.8 3.6 1.7 .4 3.3 2.8 3.3 6.1 2.1 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.2 3.0 5.5 1.8 3.7 6.0 GDP implicit price deflator 3.1 3.7 4.2 4.4 3.9 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.0 3.9 2.1 1.8 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.4 1.8 1.6 2.8 1.7 1.2 1.1 .9 .9 1.0 .8 3.1 3.7 4.2 4.3 4.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.0 3.9 2.0 1.9 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.6 2.7 2.5 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.3 1.2 1.8 1.8 2.8 1.6 1.2 1.2 .8 .9 1.0 .8 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS–OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of real output (dollars) 1 Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars) Period 1991 ................................................................................. 1992 ................................................................................. 1993 ................................................................................. 1994 ................................................................................. 1995 ................................................................................. 1996 ................................................................................. 1997 ................................................................................. 1998 ................................................................................. 1995: I ........................................................................... II .......................................................................... III ........................................................................ IV ......................................................................... 1996: I ........................................................................... II .......................................................................... III ........................................................................ IV ......................................................................... 1997: I ........................................................................... II .......................................................................... III ........................................................................ IV ......................................................................... 1998: I ........................................................................... II .......................................................................... III ........................................................................ IV ......................................................................... Current dollars Chained (1992) dollars 3,132.1 3,262.6 3,430.4 3,709.7 3,920.4 4,134.4 4,414.5 4,657.4 3,844.1 3,879.3 3,956.5 4,001.7 4,033.0 4,106.4 4,168.9 4,229.3 4,307.1 4,375.7 4,461.9 4,513.2 4,574.2 4,618.8 4,688.9 4,747.8 3,168.8 3,262.6 3,374.4 3,586.3 3,745.5 3,914.8 4,154.4 4,388.8 3,682.3 3,710.0 3,776.2 3,813.5 3,826.9 3,891.0 3,944.2 3,997.1 4,054.5 4,117.0 4,198.5 4,247.5 4,309.2 4,352.0 4,417.2 4,477.0 Total cost and profit 2 1 Output is measured by GDP of nonfinancial corporate business in chained (1992) dollars. 2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. Consumption of fixed capital 0.988 1.000 1.017 1.034 1.047 1.056 1.063 1.061 1.044 1.046 1.048 1.049 1.054 1.055 1.057 1.058 1.062 1.063 1.063 1.063 1.061 1.061 1.062 1.060 0.101 .101 .101 .101 .100 .100 .100 .099 .099 .100 .100 .101 .101 .100 .100 .100 .100 .100 .100 .100 .099 .100 .099 .099 Indirect business tax, etc.3 0.100 .103 .106 .108 .106 .105 .105 .105 .108 .107 .105 .105 .106 .105 .105 .105 .105 .106 .105 .105 .105 .104 .104 .107 Compensation of employees 0.660 .673 .679 .677 .682 .685 .691 .699 .684 .685 .680 .681 .681 .684 .686 .687 .690 .691 .688 .695 .697 .699 .699 .700 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Total 0.085 .091 .103 .122 .130 .140 .143 .136 .125 .126 .135 .135 .139 .140 .141 .141 .142 .143 .147 .141 .139 .136 .138 .133 Profits tax liability 0.027 .028 .031 .036 .037 .039 .041 .037 .037 .036 .037 .037 .038 .039 .039 .039 .041 .040 .042 .040 .037 .037 .037 .035 Profits after tax 4 0.058 .063 .072 .086 .094 .101 .102 .100 .088 .090 .098 .098 .101 .101 .102 .102 .101 .102 .104 .101 .102 .099 .100 .098 Net interest 0.042 .032 .028 .027 .028 .026 .023 .022 .028 .028 .028 .028 .027 .026 .026 .025 .025 .024 .023 .022 .022 .022 .022 .022 3 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4 With 3 NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] National income Period 1991 ......................................... 1992 ......................................... 1993 ......................................... 1994 ......................................... 1995 ........................................ 1996 ........................................ 1997 ........................................ 1998 r ....................................... 1995: I ................................... II .................................. III ................................ IV ................................. 1996: I ................................... II .................................. III ................................ IV ................................. 1997: I ................................... II .................................. III ................................ IV ................................. 1998: I ................................... II .................................. III ................................ IV r ............................... 1 Includes 4,761.6 4,990.4 5,266.8 5,590.7 5,923.7 6,256.0 6,646.5 6,994.7 5,816.1 5,873.3 5,965.3 6,039.8 6,119.6 6,226.8 6,303.6 6,373.9 6,509.0 6,604.5 6,704.8 6,767.9 6,875.0 6,945.5 7,032.3 7,126.0 Compensation of employees1 Proprietors’ income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Farm 3,457.9 3,644.9 3,814.9 4,012.0 4,208.9 4,409.0 4,687.2 4,981.0 4,150.3 4,183.6 4,230.0 4,271.6 4,303.5 4,382.4 4,444.4 4,505.9 4,586.3 4,649.2 4,715.5 4,798.0 4,882.8 4,945.2 5,011.6 5,084.3 Nonfarm 29.3 37.1 32.4 36.9 22.4 38.9 35.5 28.7 22.8 20.4 19.1 27.4 34.8 41.0 43.2 36.7 36.4 37.8 36.3 31.4 27.4 27.7 25.2 34.7 347.2 386.7 418.4 434.7 465.6 488.8 515.8 548.5 455.7 462.0 470.7 474.1 481.3 487.0 490.3 496.4 504.1 512.1 520.2 526.6 536.8 544.0 550.9 562.2 employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment 67.9 79.4 105.7 124.4 133.7 150.2 158.2 162.6 131.1 133.3 131.9 138.7 145.0 148.4 152.1 155.3 157.5 158.0 158.6 158.8 158.3 161.0 163.6 167.5 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total Total 411.3 428.0 492.8 570.5 672.4 750.4 817.9 824.6 629.3 653.9 698.6 707.8 735.9 748.3 755.4 762.0 794.3 815.5 840.9 820.8 829.2 820.6 827.0 821.7 378.2 398.9 456.9 519.1 613.0 679.0 741.2 732.3 572.6 595.5 637.4 646.5 667.0 677.1 683.0 688.7 720.5 740.1 763.7 740.7 744.3 731.3 732.1 721.5 Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment 374.2 406.4 465.4 535.1 635.6 680.2 734.4 717.8 610.5 629.4 650.8 651.8 669.9 683.4 681.9 685.7 712.4 729.8 758.9 736.4 719.1 723.5 720.5 708.1 4.0 ¥7.5 ¥8.5 ¥16.1 ¥22.6 ¥1.2 6.9 14.5 ¥37.9 ¥33.9 ¥13.4 ¥5.3 ¥2.9 ¥6.2 1.2 3.0 8.1 10.3 4.8 4.3 25.3 7.8 11.7 13.4 Capital consumption adjustment Net interest 33.1 29.1 36.0 51.4 59.4 71.4 76.6 92.3 56.7 58.3 61.2 61.3 68.9 71.2 72.3 73.3 73.8 75.5 77.2 80.1 84.9 89.4 94.8 100.2 448.0 414.3 402.5 412.3 420.6 418.6 432.0 449.3 426.9 420.2 415.2 420.2 419.2 419.7 418.1 417.5 430.4 431.8 433.3 432.4 440.5 447.1 454.0 455.6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of chained (1992) dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Durable goods Period 1991 ............................... 1992 ............................... 1993 ............................... 1994 ............................... 1995 ............................... 1996 ............................... 1997 ............................... 1998 r ............................. 1995: I .......................... II ........................ III ....................... IV ....................... 1996: I .......................... II ........................ III ....................... IV ....................... 1997: I .......................... II ........................ III ....................... IV ....................... 1998: I .......................... II ........................ III ....................... IV r ...................... Total personal consumption expenditures Total durable goods Motor vehicles and parts 4,105.8 4,219.8 4,343.6 4,486.0 4,605.6 4,752.4 4,913.5 5,153.3 4,555.3 4,593.6 4,623.4 4,650.0 4,692.1 4,746.6 4,768.3 4,802.6 4,853.4 4,872.7 4,947.0 4,981.0 5,055.1 5,130.2 5,181.8 5,246.0 462.0 488.5 523.8 561.2 589.1 626.1 668.6 737.1 575.2 583.5 595.3 602.4 611.0 629.5 626.5 637.5 656.3 653.8 679.6 684.8 710.3 729.4 733.7 775.0 193.2 206.9 218.9 230.0 230.6 235.0 239.3 259.6 227.4 229.5 232.6 232.8 235.9 237.9 232.8 233.3 239.1 230.8 244.4 242.7 247.8 258.9 252.6 279.3 Furniture and household equipment 177.0 189.4 207.8 229.4 251.2 277.5 307.7 347.3 242.6 246.6 254.1 261.4 265.0 277.7 280.0 287.2 296.2 303.7 312.7 318.1 335.8 339.3 352.0 362.1 Nondurable goods Other 91.8 92.3 97.2 102.3 109.0 117.1 127.7 138.5 106.5 108.7 110.3 110.5 112.3 117.0 117.6 121.5 125.8 125.9 128.5 130.8 135.1 138.6 139.1 141.0 Total nondurable goods 1,302.9 1,321.8 1,351.0 1,389.9 1,417.6 1,450.9 1,486.3 1,544.1 1,410.4 1,415.9 1,418.5 1,425.6 1,433.5 1,450.4 1,454.7 1,465.1 1,477.9 1,477.1 1,495.7 1,494.3 1,521.2 1,540.9 1,549.1 1,565.1 1 Includes other items, not shown separately. NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. 4 Food 659.6 660.0 675.3 687.9 689.5 692.6 699.3 718.0 689.5 689.6 688.9 690.0 691.1 693.4 691.4 694.3 699.4 697.3 700.6 699.9 706.8 716.3 718.9 730.1 Clothing Gasoline and and oil shoes 215.9 225.5 234.2 247.1 260.1 276.1 288.4 310.3 256.4 258.4 262.1 263.5 268.0 276.4 279.8 280.3 286.0 283.3 291.9 292.3 307.4 311.4 309.8 312.5 103.4 106.6 108.7 109.8 114.3 116.0 117.9 119.9 113.5 114.2 114.3 115.3 114.7 116.2 116.0 117.0 116.7 118.3 118.4 118.1 118.5 118.4 121.1 121.5 Services Fuel oil and coal 10.8 10.9 10.7 10.7 11.2 11.2 10.3 9.6 10.4 11.4 11.3 11.7 11.9 11.1 11.3 10.6 9.8 10.4 10.7 10.1 9.2 9.7 9.9 9.5 Other 313.2 318.8 322.1 334.3 343.1 356.7 373.0 390.3 340.9 342.8 342.7 346.0 348.9 355.0 358.2 364.8 368.3 369.9 377.0 376.8 383.5 389.2 393.4 395.2 Total services 1 Housing Medical care 2,341.0 2,409.4 2,468.9 2,535.5 2,599.6 2,676.7 2,761.5 2,879.5 2,570.4 2,594.8 2,610.3 2,622.9 2,648.5 2,668.4 2,688.1 2,701.7 2,722.1 2,743.6 2,775.4 2,804.8 2,829.3 2,866.8 2,904.8 2,917.2 635.2 646.8 654.7 674.3 688.6 700.9 717.4 735.0 684.9 687.0 689.7 692.7 695.7 698.6 702.6 706.7 711.2 715.1 719.5 723.9 728.7 732.7 737.1 741.5 621.6 646.6 655.3 662.1 675.0 686.6 701.7 723.2 669.1 673.0 677.2 680.9 679.5 685.6 687.7 693.5 694.8 698.6 704.2 709.4 714.9 721.6 725.3 730.8 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Retail sales of new passenger cars and light trucks (millions of units) 12.3 12.8 13.9 15.0 14.7 15.0 15.0 15.5 14.8 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.0 14.9 15.3 14.5 15.3 14.8 15.3 16.0 14.7 16.2 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $39.7 billion (annual rate) in February, following an increase of $46.6 billion in January. Wages and salaries increased $28.3 billion in February, following an increase of $31.5 billion in January. [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Total personal income Wage and salary disbursements 1 Proprietors’ income 3 Other labor income 1 2 Farm Nonfarm Rental income of persons 4 Personal dividend income Personal interest income Transfer payments 5 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance 1990 ................................................................... 1991 ................................................................... 1992 ................................................................... 1993 ................................................................... 1994 ................................................................... 1995 ................................................................... 1996 ................................................................... 1997 ................................................................... 1998 r ................................................................. 4,796.2 4,965.6 5,255.7 5,481.0 5,757.9 6,072.1 6,425.2 6,784.0 7,126.1 2,757.5 2,827.6 2,986.4 3,089.6 3,240.7 3,428.5 3,631.1 3,889.8 4,149.9 300.6 322.7 351.3 385.1 405.0 401.6 387.0 392.9 406.9 35.4 29.3 37.1 32.4 36.9 22.4 38.9 35.5 28.7 338.6 347.2 386.7 418.4 434.7 465.6 488.8 515.8 548.5 61.0 67.9 79.4 105.7 124.4 133.7 150.2 158.2 162.6 134.9 137.7 137.9 147.1 171.0 192.8 248.2 260.3 263.1 704.4 699.2 667.2 651.0 668.1 704.9 719.4 747.3 764.8 687.8 769.9 858.2 912.0 954.7 1,015.9 1,068.0 1,110.4 1,149.0 223.9 235.8 248.4 260.3 277.5 293.6 306.3 326.2 347.4 1998: Jan .......................................................... Feb ......................................................... Mar ......................................................... Apr ......................................................... May ........................................................ June ....................................................... July ........................................................ Aug ........................................................ Sept ........................................................ Oct r ........................................................ Nov r ....................................................... Dec r ........................................................ 6,970.5 7,007.3 7,033.9 7,055.3 7,085.9 7,104.4 7,133.7 7,164.1 7,184.6 7,217.2 7,279.8 7,276.8 4,040.0 4,066.4 4,079.3 4,097.6 4,124.3 4,131.0 4,153.6 4,183.4 4,194.3 4,220.9 4,243.9 4,263.5 401.7 402.8 403.8 404.7 405.7 406.6 407.5 408.3 409.2 410.1 411.0 411.9 28.2 27.3 26.6 27.2 27.7 28.2 26.8 25.2 23.5 25.7 53.0 25.4 531.6 536.6 542.2 543.0 542.5 546.6 550.5 549.5 552.9 557.3 561.7 567.5 158.3 158.4 158.3 159.4 160.9 162.6 163.0 163.5 164.4 164.8 171.6 166.3 261.5 261.6 261.8 262.0 262.1 262.3 262.4 262.8 263.7 264.7 265.7 266.7 754.7 757.0 759.3 761.2 762.8 765.0 767.3 769.4 770.7 770.5 769.8 769.4 1,133.8 1,138.4 1,144.7 1,143.8 1,145.3 1,148.3 1,150.4 1,151.8 1,156.6 1,155.8 1,157.3 1,161.7 339.3 341.2 342.2 343.6 345.5 346.2 347.7 349.9 350.8 352.5 354.2 355.6 1999: Jan r ........................................................ Feb p ....................................................... 7,323.4 7,363.1 4,295.0 4,323.3 413.3 415.3 24.6 23.3 572.0 576.0 168.8 171.8 267.7 268.8 770.4 772.1 1,173.0 1,175.8 361.5 363.3 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. 2 Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. capital consumption adjustment. mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4 With 5 Consists 5 DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME According to revised estimates, per capita disposable personal income in chained (1992) dollars rose at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 1998. Period Personal income Less: Personal tax and nontax payments Equals: Disposable personal income Less: Personal outlays 1 Equals: Personal saving Disposable personal income in billions of chained (1992) dollars Per capita disposable personal income Current dollars Billions of dollars 1991 ................. 1992 ................. 1993 ................. 1994 ................. 1995 ................. 1996 ................. 1997 ................. 1998 r ............... 4,965.6 5,255.7 5,481.0 5,757.9 6,072.1 6,425.2 6,784.0 7,126.1 624.8 650.5 690.0 739.1 795.0 890.5 989.0 1,098.3 4,340.9 4,605.1 4,791.1 5,018.9 5,277.0 5,534.7 5,795.1 6,027.9 Chained (1992) dollars Per capita personal consumption expenditures Current dollars Chained (1992) dollars Dollars 4,097.4 4,341.0 4,580.7 4,842.1 5,097.2 5,376.2 5,674.1 6,000.2 243.5 264.1 210.3 176.8 179.8 158.5 121.0 27.7 4,483.5 4,605.1 4,666.7 4,772.9 4,906.0 5,043.0 5,183.1 5,348.5 17,179 18,029 18,558 19,251 20,050 20,840 21,633 22,304 Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population, including Armed Forces overseas (thousands) 2 Percent 17,744 18,029 18,077 18,308 18,640 18,989 19,349 19,790 15,732 16,520 17,273 18,093 18,822 19,639 20,508 21,490 16,249 16,520 16,825 17,207 17,499 17,894 18,342 19,068 ¥1.2 1.6 .3 1.3 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.3 5.6 5.7 4.4 3.5 3.4 2.9 2.1 .5 252,680 255,432 258,161 260,705 263,194 265,579 267,880 270,258 18,621 18,551 18,628 18,761 18,860 18,919 19,079 19,096 19,217 19,315 19,385 19,478 19,632 19,719 19,829 19,980 18,542 18,762 18,922 19,061 19,299 19,600 19,717 19,938 20,235 20,329 20,660 20,807 21,078 21,394 21,612 21,873 17,371 17,476 17,544 17,602 17,727 17,894 17,934 18,021 18,178 18,213 18,447 18,529 18,770 19,010 19,155 19,334 1.7 ¥1.5 1.7 2.9 2.1 1.3 3.4 .4 2.6 2.1 1.5 1.9 3.2 1.8 2.3 3.1 4.1 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.2 2.6 3.1 2.6 2.4 2.6 1.7 1.7 1.2 .4 .2 0 262,235 262,847 263,527 264,169 264,680 265,258 265,887 266,491 266,987 267,545 268,171 268,815 269,309 269,867 270,523 271,331 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1995: I ............ II .......... III ......... IV ......... 1996: I ............ II .......... III ......... IV ......... 1997: I ............ II .......... III ......... IV ......... 1998: I ............ II .......... III ........ IV r ....... 5,979.5 6,030.3 6,093.5 6,185.0 6,284.3 6,390.0 6,476.7 6,549.8 6,666.7 6,743.6 6,820.9 6,904.9 7,003.9 7,081.9 7,160.8 7,257.9 767.2 795.7 799.0 818.3 849.7 893.3 899.4 919.7 955.6 975.8 999.0 1,025.5 1,066.8 1,092.9 1,108.4 1,124.9 5,212.3 5,234.7 5,294.5 5,366.8 5,434.6 5,496.7 5,577.3 5,630.1 5,711.2 5,767.9 5,821.8 5,879.4 5,937.1 5,988.9 6,052.4 6,133.1 4,997.4 5,070.6 5,132.1 5,188.8 5,261.1 5,356.2 5,405.2 5,482.5 5,575.8 5,616.0 5,723.3 5,781.2 5,864.0 5,963.3 6,039.8 6,133.6 214.9 164.0 162.4 178.0 173.5 140.5 172.2 147.6 135.4 151.9 98.5 98.2 73.0 25.6 12.6 ¥.6 4,883.0 4,876.0 4,909.1 4,956.1 4,992.0 5,018.4 5,072.8 5,089.0 5,130.8 5,167.5 5,198.4 5,235.8 5,287.1 5,321.5 5,364.1 5,421.2 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by persons, and personal transfer payments to rest of the world (net). 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. 6 19,876 19,915 20,091 20,316 20,533 20,722 20,976 21,127 21,391 21,558 21,709 21,871 22,046 22,192 22,373 22,604 Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the fourth quarter of 1998, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income fell $0.8 billion (annual rate) and net farm income rose $7.8 billion. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from farming Gross farm income Period Cash marketing receipts Total 1 Total 1990 .......................................................... 1991 .......................................................... 1992 .......................................................... 1993 .......................................................... 1994 .......................................................... 1995 ......................................................... 1996 ......................................................... 1997 .......................................................... 1998 p ........................................................ 1996: I .................................................... II ................................................... III ................................................. IV .................................................. 1997: I .................................................... II ................................................... III ................................................. IV .................................................. 1998: I ..................................................... II ................................................... III ................................................. IV p ................................................ 198.0 191.9 200.5 204.1 215.8 210.1 235.8 238.3 233.1 232.7 237.1 247.5 225.9 248.4 231.1 241.5 232.3 240.6 227.5 232.8 232.0 169.5 167.9 171.4 177.8 181.2 188.1 199.6 208.7 198.0 200.9 203.1 203.5 190.9 218.3 208.8 207.2 200.3 211.1 204.8 195.2 182.2 1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. Livestock and products 89.2 85.8 85.6 90.2 88.2 87.0 93.0 96.6 93.4 90.2 90.7 96.8 94.3 94.1 95.5 100.3 96.3 91.2 91.9 97.1 94.2 Crops 80.3 82.1 85.7 87.6 93.1 101.1 106.6 112.1 104.7 110.7 112.4 106.7 96.5 124.3 113.2 106.9 104.0 119.9 112.9 98.1 88.1 Value of inventory changes 2 3.3 ¥.2 4.2 ¥4.2 8.3 ¥5.1 7.8 ¥.4 ¥1.0 9.7 9.0 6.9 5.4 ¥.5 ¥.5 ¥.4 ¥.3 ¥1.5 ¥1.3 ¥1.0 ¥.7 Production expenses 153.3 153.3 152.9 160.5 167.5 174.1 182.4 188.4 185.1 184.1 183.0 184.2 178.5 193.4 192.5 187.7 180.2 195.2 191.5 181.8 173.2 Net farm income 44.7 38.6 47.5 43.6 48.3 36.0 53.4 49.8 48.0 48.6 54.1 63.3 47.4 55.0 38.6 53.7 52.1 45.4 36.0 51.0 58.8 NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Credit Corporation loans and operator households. Quarterly data plotted for 1989 through 1993 in chart do not reflect previous revisions to annual data in table. Source: Department of Agriculture. 7 CORPORATE PROFITS In the fourth quarter of 1998, according to current estimates, corporate profits before tax fell $12.4 billion (annual rate) and profits after tax fell $4.8 billion. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment1 Profits after tax Domestic industries Period Profits before tax Nonfinancial Total2 Total Financial Total3 Manufacturing Wholesale Tax liability Total Dividends Undistributed profits Inventory valuation adjustment Retail ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ............... 358.2 378.2 398.9 456.9 519.1 613.0 679.0 741.2 732.3 292.5 309.5 334.0 383.0 445.7 523.4 582.6 642.2 636.6 68.6 87.4 83.7 82.9 69.4 104.6 110.7 130.0 134.2 223.8 222.1 250.3 300.1 376.3 418.8 471.8 512.3 502.4 112.3 92.7 96.3 116.7 151.6 183.9 195.6 214.4 192.8 17.2 20.6 23.0 24.3 29.4 26.2 37.9 49.8 51.3 20.6 26.1 32.2 38.9 46.0 43.3 51.8 61.2 67.2 371.7 374.2 406.4 465.4 535.1 635.6 680.2 734.4 717.8 140.5 133.4 143.0 165.2 186.6 211.0 226.1 246.1 240.1 231.2 240.8 263.4 300.2 348.5 424.6 454.1 488.3 477.7 143.9 147.2 147.9 157.6 182.4 205.3 261.9 275.1 279.2 87.3 93.6 115.5 142.6 166.1 219.3 192.3 213.2 198.5 ¥13.5 4.0 ¥7.5 ¥8.5 ¥16.1 ¥22.6 ¥1.2 6.9 14.5 1995: I .......... II ......... III ........ IV ........ 572.6 595.5 637.4 646.5 487.5 502.3 553.9 550.0 93.9 104.2 116.0 104.4 393.6 398.1 438.0 445.6 170.3 176.9 193.0 195.4 22.8 21.2 29.7 31.1 42.5 41.9 43.5 45.3 610.5 629.4 650.8 651.8 202.9 207.6 219.1 214.3 407.6 421.9 431.6 437.5 197.1 199.0 204.4 220.7 210.5 222.8 227.2 216.8 ¥37.9 ¥33.9 ¥13.4 ¥5.3 1996: I .......... II ......... III ........ IV ........ 667.0 677.1 683.0 688.7 574.4 583.7 589.4 582.8 116.5 116.6 111.7 98.0 457.9 467.0 477.7 484.8 191.6 195.0 197.3 198.6 35.6 31.9 37.7 46.3 49.7 52.5 53.8 51.2 669.9 683.4 681.9 685.7 223.9 228.6 227.7 224.2 446.0 454.8 454.2 461.5 247.6 257.1 269.1 273.6 198.4 197.6 185.1 187.9 ¥2.9 ¥6.2 1.2 3.0 1997: I .......... II ......... III ........ IV ........ 720.5 740.1 763.7 740.7 624.0 634.7 661.4 648.7 127.7 128.7 128.6 134.7 496.3 506.0 532.8 514.0 200.8 215.5 228.9 212.3 48.3 50.5 52.7 47.6 60.8 59.1 62.7 62.2 712.4 729.8 758.9 736.4 238.8 241.9 254.2 249.3 473.6 487.8 504.7 487.1 274.1 274.7 275.1 276.4 199.5 213.2 229.5 210.6 8.1 10.3 4.8 4.3 1998: I .......... II ......... III ....... IV ....... 744.3 731.3 732.1 721.5 645.8 633.9 642.2 624.7 136.3 134.4 133.2 133.0 509.4 499.5 509.0 491.7 197.1 194.6 195.0 184.5 51.5 53.5 53.9 46.3 67.4 67.4 67.1 66.8 719.1 723.5 720.5 708.1 239.9 241.6 243.2 235.6 479.2 481.8 477.3 472.5 277.3 278.1 279.0 282.3 201.8 203.7 198.3 190.2 25.3 7.8 11.7 13.4 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. rest of the world, not shown separately. industries not shown separately. 2Includes 3Includes 8 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. REAL GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT In the fourth quarter of 1998, according to revised estimates, nonresidential fixed investment in chained (1992) dollars rose $33.2 billion (annual rate) and residential investment rose $7.6 billion. There was an increase of $44.2 billion in inventories following an increase of $55.7 billion in the third quarter. [Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Fixed investment Period Gross private domestic investment Change in business inventories Nonresidential Total Total Producers’ durable equipment Residential Structures Total Nonfarm 1990 .................................................................................... 1991 .................................................................................... 1992 .................................................................................... 1993 .................................................................................... 1994 .................................................................................... 1995 .................................................................................... 1996 .................................................................................... 1997 .................................................................................... 1998 r .................................................................................. 815.0 738.1 790.4 863.6 975.7 996.1 1,084.1 1,206.4 1,330.1 805.8 741.3 783.4 842.8 915.5 966.0 1,050.6 1,138.0 1,267.8 585.2 547.7 557.9 600.2 648.4 710.6 776.6 859.4 960.7 203.3 181.6 169.2 170.8 172.5 180.7 189.7 203.2 203.0 381.9 366.2 388.7 429.6 476.8 531.7 589.8 660.9 770.2 220.6 193.4 225.6 242.6 267.0 256.8 275.9 282.8 312.0 10.4 ¥3.0 7.0 22.1 60.6 27.7 30.0 63.2 57.4 7.8 ¥1.2 2.0 29.5 49.0 37.7 23.2 58.8 50.1 1995: I .............................................................................. II ............................................................................. III ............................................................................ IV ............................................................................ 1,013.5 982.0 983.4 1,005.4 957.1 957.8 965.8 983.1 698.4 710.2 711.7 722.3 179.5 181.7 181.5 179.8 520.4 529.9 531.8 544.8 259.9 249.5 255.6 262.1 54.3 21.7 14.7 20.1 62.5 36.7 30.6 20.8 1996: I .............................................................................. II ............................................................................. III ............................................................................ IV ............................................................................ 1,029.3 1,072.8 1,118.1 1,116.1 1,011.4 1,043.5 1,067.1 1,080.4 744.8 764.4 790.1 807.0 182.6 185.9 189.9 200.6 565.0 581.6 604.0 608.8 268.0 280.2 279.0 276.3 14.4 26.1 47.5 32.1 10.4 15.2 38.6 28.7 1997: I .............................................................................. II ............................................................................. III ............................................................................ IV ............................................................................ 1,156.6 1,211.3 1,215.8 1,241.9 1,096.0 1,127.0 1,159.3 1,169.5 820.9 848.2 882.2 886.2 202.5 199.3 205.2 205.7 621.0 653.8 682.6 686.4 278.4 282.5 282.3 287.9 56.3 79.0 51.0 66.5 56.2 72.1 44.0 62.7 1998: I .............................................................................. II ............................................................................ III ............................................................................ IV r .......................................................................... 1,321.8 1,306.5 1,331.6 1,360.6 1,224.9 1,264.1 1,270.9 1,311.0 931.9 960.4 958.7 991.9 203.1 201.9 202.0 205.0 738.8 771.3 769.3 801.5 298.5 309.1 316.5 324.1 91.4 38.2 55.7 44.2 85.9 29.9 47.0 37.5 NOTE.—See p. 10 for further detail on fixed investment by type. Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermedi- ate aggregates. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9 REAL PRIVATE FIXED INVESTMENT BY TYPE [Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nonresidential Structures Total nonresidential Period 1990 ........................... 1991 ........................... 1992 ........................... 1993 ........................... 1994 ........................... 1995 ........................... 1996 ........................... 1997 ........................... 1998 r ......................... 1995: I ...................... II ..................... III ................... IV .................... 1996: I ...................... II ..................... III ................... IV .................... 1997: I ...................... II ..................... III ................... IV .................... 1998: I ...................... II ..................... III ................... IV r .................. 585.2 547.7 557.9 600.2 648.4 710.6 776.6 859.4 960.7 698.4 710.2 711.7 722.3 744.8 764.4 790.1 807.0 820.9 848.2 882.2 886.2 931.9 960.4 958.7 991.9 Total 1 203.3 181.6 169.2 170.8 172.5 180.7 189.7 203.2 203.0 179.5 181.7 181.5 179.8 182.6 185.9 189.9 200.6 202.5 199.3 205.2 205.7 203.1 201.9 202.0 205.0 Nonresidential buildings, including farm Utilities 152.0 126.9 113.2 115.3 119.9 128.8 141.0 150.5 150.9 126.1 129.5 129.3 130.4 133.9 138.3 141.6 150.2 152.8 147.8 152.0 149.5 150.1 149.8 150.1 153.8 28.1 32.0 34.5 31.8 29.9 30.6 27.8 28.7 29.5 30.7 31.3 30.9 29.6 28.3 27.5 27.1 28.4 28.1 28.6 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.7 Residential Structures Producers’ durable equipment Information processing and related equipment Mining exploration, shafts, and wells Total 1 16.1 15.7 13.3 16.0 15.8 14.4 15.3 17.9 16.7 15.7 13.9 14.2 13.9 14.4 14.4 15.6 16.7 16.6 17.6 18.6 18.9 17.9 17.0 16.4 15.3 381.9 366.2 388.7 429.6 476.8 531.7 589.8 660.9 770.2 520.4 529.9 531.8 544.8 565.0 581.6 604.0 608.8 621.0 653.8 682.6 686.4 738.8 771.3 769.3 801.5 Total Computers and peripheral equipment 2 116.2 117.8 134.2 147.9 165.1 201.5 245.4 298.0 388.1 183.7 199.2 205.2 217.7 229.5 238.0 253.1 260.9 271.8 288.1 311.5 320.7 353.4 376.8 399.6 422.5 29.4 32.4 43.9 56.1 67.2 100.8 151.3 214.8 351.8 80.4 95.2 105.3 122.1 133.6 142.6 158.5 170.7 182.5 203.9 229.9 242.9 292.2 331.5 370.5 413.0 1 Includes other items, not shown separately. new computers and peripheral equipment only. producers’ durable equipment, not shown separately. NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar 2 Includes 3 Includes Transportation and related equipment Total residential 3 Other Industrial equipment 88.2 85.9 90.2 92.3 99.4 108.1 115.4 126.6 141.2 106.1 109.2 108.2 108.7 111.9 113.7 117.9 118.2 121.1 123.7 130.0 131.5 136.7 139.7 142.8 145.6 95.0 88.3 89.3 96.5 105.5 115.4 120.5 125.9 132.7 113.2 116.4 116.6 115.6 119.1 122.0 120.4 120.6 120.8 126.4 127.7 128.6 131.5 132.5 133.1 133.5 81.2 81.7 86.2 98.3 113.2 119.4 127.6 140.3 162.0 125.3 119.1 115.3 118.0 121.9 125.0 132.7 130.8 131.1 140.5 145.9 143.8 159.6 167.9 151.7 168.7 220.6 193.4 225.6 242.6 267.0 256.8 275.9 282.8 312.0 259.9 249.5 255.6 262.1 268.0 280.2 279.0 276.3 278.4 282.5 282.3 287.9 298.5 309.1 316.5 324.1 Total Single family Multifamily Other 214.5 187.6 219.5 236.2 260.3 249.8 268.6 275.1 303.9 252.9 242.6 248.5 255.0 261.0 272.9 271.7 268.9 270.9 274.9 274.5 280.1 290.5 300.9 308.3 315.7 110.4 96.4 116.5 127.1 140.1 126.8 136.6 137.2 153.0 131.2 122.7 124.2 128.9 133.0 138.5 138.6 136.3 136.3 137.2 136.1 139.0 145.2 151.3 155.6 159.7 19.7 15.4 13.1 10.6 13.6 16.9 18.7 20.2 21.3 16.3 16.2 17.4 17.8 18.7 20.1 17.7 18.3 19.8 20.3 19.5 21.0 22.1 20.7 20.8 21.7 84.4 75.7 89.9 98.6 106.5 106.6 113.8 118.5 130.2 105.7 104.2 107.6 108.8 109.8 114.8 115.9 114.8 115.3 118.0 119.7 120.9 123.8 129.6 132.6 135.0 estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. BUSINESS INVESTMENT [Billions of dollars] By industry Period 1993 1994 1995 1996 ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... Total expenditures 1 489.7 549.3 601.1 642.9 Manufacturing Total 488.2 547.9 601.0 642.9 Mining 19.6 24.6 27.6 29.5 Construction Total 11.6 9.1 10.4 11.7 134.1 154.4 181.0 191.2 1 Includes an item for not distributed by industry, not shown separately. NOTE.—All data from Annual Capital Expenditures. 10 Durable goods Nondurable goods Transportation Communications Utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade Finance Insurance and real estate Services Serving multiple industries 66.4 79.7 97.0 109.7 67.7 74.7 84.0 81.5 30.6 33.3 33.9 35.9 37.1 41.9 46.3 57.1 41.3 41.5 38.4 37.0 19.0 23.5 24.5 25.2 41.4 46.5 51.9 52.2 26.0 29.8 30.4 36.3 14.2 17.4 19.8 22.5 111.8 123.8 134.2 142.0 1.7 2.2 2.5 2.5 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE In March, employment fell by 111,000, and unemployment fell by 344,000. [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Civilian employment Period Civilian noninstitutional population NSA Civilian labor force Nonagricultural Total Agricultural Total Percent 2 Unemployment Part time for economic reasons 1 Total 15 weeks and over Not in labor force Labor force participation rate Employment/ population ratio Unemployment rate 1989 ..................................... 1990 3 ................................... 1991 ..................................... 1992 ..................................... 1993 ..................................... 1994 4 ................................... 1995 ..................................... 1996 ..................................... 1997 3 ................................... 1998 3 ................................... 1998: Mar .......................... Apr ........................... May .......................... June ......................... July .......................... Aug .......................... Sept .......................... Oct ........................... Nov .......................... Dec ........................... 186,393 189,164 190,925 192,805 194,838 196,814 198,584 200,591 203,133 205,220 204,547 204,731 204,899 205,085 205,270 205,479 205,699 205,919 206,104 206,270 123,869 125,840 126,346 128,105 129,200 131,056 132,304 133,943 136,297 137,673 137,340 137,232 137,369 137,498 137,407 137,481 138,081 138,116 138,193 138,547 117,342 118,793 117,718 118,492 120,259 123,060 124,900 126,708 129,558 131,463 130,908 131,280 131,330 131,253 131,176 131,264 131,818 131,858 132,113 132,526 3,199 3,223 3,269 3,247 3,115 3,409 3,440 3,443 3,399 3,378 3,173 3,381 3,351 3,363 3,423 3,492 3,470 3,558 3,348 3,222 114,142 115,570 114,449 115,245 117,144 119,651 121,460 123,264 126,159 128,025 127,735 127,899 127,979 127,890 127,753 127,772 128,348 128,300 128,765 129,304 4,657 4,950 5,874 6,240 6,230 4,414 4,279 4,123 3,879 3,501 3,698 3,606 3,608 3,618 3,606 3,339 3,191 3,253 3,191 3,257 6,528 7,047 8,628 9,613 8,940 7,996 7,404 7,236 6,739 6,210 6,432 5,952 6,039 6,245 6,231 6,217 6,263 6,258 6,080 6,021 1,375 1,525 2,357 3,408 3,094 2,860 2,363 2,316 2,062 1,637 1,728 1,461 1,509 1,641 1,606 1,644 1,636 1,598 1,611 1,578 62,523 63,324 64,578 64,700 65,638 65,758 66,280 66,647 66,837 67,547 67,207 67,499 67,530 67,587 67,863 67,998 67,618 67,803 67,911 67,723 66.5 66.5 66.2 66.4 66.3 66.6 66.6 66.8 67.1 67.1 67.1 67.0 67.0 67.0 66.9 66.9 67.1 67.1 67.1 67.2 63.0 62.8 61.7 61.5 61.7 62.5 62.9 63.2 63.8 64.1 64.0 64.1 64.1 64.0 63.9 63.9 64.1 64.0 64.1 64.2 5.3 5.6 6.8 7.5 6.9 6.1 5.6 5.4 4.9 4.5 4.7 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 1999: Jan 3 ......................... Feb ........................... Mar ........................... 206,719 206,873 207,036 139,347 139,271 138,816 133,396 133,144 133,033 3,299 3,328 3,281 130,097 129,817 129,752 3,413 3,298 3,374 5,950 6,127 5,783 1,469 1,550 1,434 67,372 67,602 68,220 67.4 67.3 67.0 64.5 64.4 64.3 4.3 4.4 4.2 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc. 2 Civilian labor force (or employment) as percent of civilian noninstitutional population; and unemployment as percent of civilian labor force. 3 Not strictly comparable with earlier data. 4 Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods because of a major redesign of the household survey questionnaire. NOTE.—Data beginning January 1998 reflect new composite estimate procedures. Data beginning January 1998 and January 1999 reflect revised population controls. For details, see February issues, Employment and Earnings. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In March, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2 percent from 4.4 percent in February. [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) By sex and age Period 1989 ........................... 1990 ........................... 1991 ........................... 1992 ........................... 1993 ........................... 1994 2 ......................... 1995 ........................... 1996 ........................... 1997 ........................... 1998 ........................... 1998: Mar ................. Apr .................. May ................. June ................ July ................. Aug ................. Sept ................. Oct .................. Nov ................. Dec .................. 1999: Jan .................. Feb .................. Mar ................. 1 Revised 2 Data 12 All civilian workers 5.3 5.6 6.8 7.5 6.9 6.1 5.6 5.4 4.9 4.5 4.7 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.2 Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over 4.5 5.0 6.4 7.1 6.4 5.4 4.8 4.6 4.2 3.7 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.7 3.2 4.7 4.9 5.7 6.3 5.9 5.4 4.9 4.8 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.9 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.8 3.9 By race Both sexes 16–19 years White 15.0 15.5 18.7 20.1 19.0 17.6 17.3 16.7 16.0 14.6 14.9 13.5 14.3 14.8 14.2 14.9 15.2 15.7 15.0 14.0 15.5 14.1 14.3 definition; for details, see Employment and Earnings, February 1994. beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods. 4.5 4.8 6.1 6.6 6.1 5.3 4.9 4.7 4.2 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.6 Black and other 10.0 10.1 11.1 12.7 11.7 10.5 9.6 9.3 8.8 7.8 8.1 7.6 7.7 7.6 8.1 7.6 7.9 7.6 7.5 7.0 6.9 7.4 7.2 By selected groups Black 11.4 11.4 12.5 14.2 13.0 11.5 10.4 10.5 10.0 8.9 9.2 9.0 8.9 8.5 9.6 8.9 9.0 8.6 8.6 7.9 7.8 8.3 8.1 Experienced wage and salary workers 5.0 5.3 6.6 7.2 6.6 5.9 5.4 5.2 4.7 4.3 4.5 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 Married men, spouse present 3.0 3.4 4.4 5.1 4.4 3.7 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.1 Women who maintain families Full-time workers 1 Part-time workers 1 8.1 8.3 9.3 10.0 9.7 8.9 8.0 8.2 8.1 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.1 6.9 6.8 7.6 6.9 6.9 6.3 6.1 6.5 6.7 5.1 5.4 6.8 7.5 6.9 6.1 5.5 5.3 4.8 4.3 4.5 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.0 6.2 6.4 7.0 7.5 7.2 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.5 5.3 5.6 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.9 NOTE.—Data relate to persons age 16 years and over. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In March, the percentage of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks was unchanged; the percentages for 5–14 weeks and for 15–26 weeks rose; and the percentage for 27 weeks and over fell. The mean duration of unemployment fell to 13.5 weeks and the median duration fell to 6.9 weeks. [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Duration of unemployment Period Unemployment (thousands) Percent distribution Less than 5 weeks 5–14 weeks 15–26 weeks Reason for unemployment: percent distribution State programs Number of weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Median Job losers 1 Job leavers Reentrants New entrants Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) 2 Weekly average, thousands 1989 ........................................... 1990 ........................................... 1991 ........................................... 1992 ........................................... 1993 ........................................... 1994 3 ......................................... 1995 ........................................... 1996 ........................................... 1997 ........................................... 1998 ........................................... 1998: Mar ................................. Apr .................................. May ................................. June ................................ July ................................. Aug ................................. Sept ................................. Oct .................................. Nov ................................. Dec .................................. 1999: Jan .................................. Feb .................................. Mar ................................. 6,528 7,047 8,628 9,613 8,940 7,996 7,404 7,236 6,739 6,210 6,432 5,952 6,039 6,245 6,231 6,217 6,263 6,258 6,080 6,021 5,950 6,127 5,783 48.6 46.3 40.3 35.1 36.5 34.1 36.5 36.4 37.7 42.2 43.0 43.7 42.9 41.1 42.3 42.4 42.3 44.1 41.5 43.3 39.9 42.7 42.7 30.3 32.0 32.4 29.4 28.9 30.1 31.6 31.6 31.7 31.4 30.4 32.1 32.3 32.5 31.8 31.3 31.5 30.3 32.3 30.5 35.1 31.9 32.6 11.2 11.7 14.4 15.1 14.5 15.5 14.6 14.6 14.8 12.3 12.8 10.1 11.0 13.4 12.6 13.0 11.7 11.7 12.2 12.5 12.8 12.6 12.7 9.9 10.0 12.9 20.3 20.1 20.3 17.3 17.4 15.8 14.1 13.8 14.2 13.8 13.0 13.3 13.3 14.5 13.9 14.0 13.7 12.1 12.9 12.0 1 Beginning January 1994, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs. 2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), and Federal (UCFE). Railroad (RR) programs included through 1993. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation or Emergency Unemployment Compensation programs. 11.9 12.0 13.7 17.7 18.0 18.8 16.6 16.7 15.8 14.5 14.6 14.5 14.7 14.1 14.3 13.7 14.3 14.1 14.4 14.1 13.4 13.8 13.5 4.8 5.3 6.8 8.7 8.3 9.2 8.3 8.3 8.0 6.7 6.9 6.6 6.1 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.6 5.9 6.7 6.7 6.9 7.0 6.9 45.7 48.1 54.4 56.1 54.2 47.7 46.9 46.6 45.1 45.5 45.9 45.3 45.8 45.6 46.4 45.7 45.8 44.9 45.2 45.9 45.5 44.8 44.5 15.7 14.8 11.6 10.4 10.9 9.9 11.1 10.7 11.8 11.8 11.6 10.7 12.2 12.1 12.5 11.8 11.6 11.7 11.1 11.8 11.8 12.3 13.5 28.2 27.4 24.8 23.8 24.6 34.8 34.1 34.7 34.7 34.3 34.0 35.4 33.8 34.0 33.5 34.3 34.6 34.2 34.9 33.9 33.6 34.5 34.5 10.4 9.8 9.2 9.7 10.3 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.7 8.2 8.3 7.7 8.2 8.0 9.2 8.8 8.4 9.1 8.3 7.5 2,158 2,522 3,342 3,245 2,751 2,670 2,572 2,595 2,323 2,220 2,170 2,136 2,112 2,235 2,372 2,230 2,166 2,195 2,238 2,262 2,270 2,228 .............. 330 388 447 408 341 340 357 356 323 320 308 311 316 353 325 305 301 313 320 323 319 291 p 294 2,205 2,575 3,406 3,348 2,845 2,739 2,633 2,650 2,366 2,255 2,790 2,249 1,993 2,073 2,208 2,224 1,845 1,712 2,059 2,320 r 2,846 2,766 ................. 3 Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods. NOTE.—Data relate to persons age 16 years and over (except for insured unemployment and initial claims). Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 46,000 in March. [Thousands of wage and salary workers; 1 monthly data seasonally adjusted] Goods-producing industries Period 1989 ..................... 1990 ..................... 1991 ..................... 1992 ..................... 1993 ..................... 1994 ..................... 1995 ..................... 1996 .................... 1997 .................... 1998 .................... 1998: Mar .......... Apr ........... May .......... June ......... July .......... Aug ........... Sept .......... Oct ............ Nov ........... Dec ........... 1999: Jan r .......... Feb r .......... Mar p ......... Total nonagricultural employment 107,884 109,403 108,249 108,601 110,713 114,163 117,191 119,608 122,690 125,832 124,914 125,234 125,562 125,751 125,869 126,191 126,363 126,527 126,804 127,118 127,335 127,632 127,678 Service-producing industries Manufacturing Total 2 25,254 24,905 23,745 23,231 23,352 23,908 24,265 24,493 24,934 25,256 25,276 25,339 25,301 25,304 25,135 25,253 25,241 25,209 25,184 25,269 25,251 25,271 25,182 Construction 5,171 5,120 4,650 4,492 4,668 4,986 5,160 5,418 5,686 5,965 5,860 5,930 5,917 5,946 5,970 5,989 5,981 6,012 6,051 6,153 6,170 6,249 6,202 Total 19,391 19,076 18,406 18,104 18,075 18,321 18,524 18,495 18,657 18,716 18,829 18,827 18,805 18,780 18,594 18,693 18,692 18,633 18,573 18,559 18,534 18,483 18,448 Durable goods Nondurable goods 11,394 11,109 10,569 10,277 10,221 10,448 10,683 10,789 10,987 11,097 11,166 11,170 11,156 11,144 10,989 11,106 11,090 11,059 11,011 10,996 10,974 10,951 10,929 7,997 7,968 7,837 7,827 7,854 7,873 7,841 7,706 7,670 7,619 7,663 7,657 7,649 7,636 7,605 7,587 7,602 7,574 7,562 7,563 7,560 7,532 7,519 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total in this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample 14 Total 82,630 84,497 84,504 85,370 87,361 90,256 92,925 95,115 97,756 100,576 99,638 99,895 100,261 100,447 100,734 100,938 101,122 101,318 101,620 101,849 102,084 102,361 102,496 Transportation and public utilities 5,614 5,777 5,755 5,718 5,811 5,984 6,132 6,253 6,395 6,549 6,504 6,513 6,534 6,538 6,550 6,570 6,579 6,595 6,604 6,627 6,644 6,657 6,665 Wholesale trade 6,187 6,173 6,081 5,997 5,981 6,162 6,378 6,482 6,648 6,825 6,783 6,798 6,815 6,821 6,827 6,838 6,862 6,864 6,877 6,882 6,907 6,910 6,919 Retail trade 19,475 19,601 19,284 19,356 19,773 20,507 21,187 21,597 22,011 22,475 22,259 22,335 22,423 22,448 22,547 22,545 22,592 22,589 22,672 22,712 22,755 22,836 22,825 Finance, insurance, Services and real estate 6,668 6,709 6,646 6,602 6,757 6,896 6,806 6,911 7,091 7,341 7,258 7,289 7,311 7,333 7,370 7,372 7,393 7,417 7,441 7,458 7,488 7,491 7,505 26,907 27,934 28,336 29,052 30,197 31,579 33,117 34,454 36,040 37,525 37,106 37,196 37,350 37,494 37,614 37,691 37,768 37,905 38,040 38,148 38,245 38,369 38,464 Government Total 17,779 18,304 18,402 18,645 18,841 19,128 19,305 19,419 19,570 19,862 19,728 19,764 19,828 19,813 19,826 19,922 19,928 19,948 19,986 20,022 20,045 20,098 20,118 Federal 2,988 3,085 2,966 2,969 2,915 2,870 2,822 2,757 2,699 2,686 2,671 2,674 2,671 2,674 2,672 2,683 2,687 2,713 2,725 2,706 2,702 2,713 2,702 of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. In the series shown here, persons who work at more than one job are counted each time they appear on a payroll, in contrast to the series shown on p. 11, where persons are counted only once—as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force. 2 Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Average weekly hours Average gross hourly earnings Manufacturing Period Total private nonagricultural 1 Total Average gross weekly earnings Total private nonagricultural 1 Overtime Current dollars 1982 dollars 2 Total private nonagricultural 1 Manufacturing Percent change from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural Current dollars Current dollars 1982 dollars 2 Manufacturing Construction Retail trade Current dollars 1982 dollars ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ....................... ....................... ........................ 34.6 34.5 34.3 34.4 34.5 34.7 34.5 34.4 34.6 34.6 41.0 40.8 40.7 41.0 41.4 42.0 41.6 41.6 42.0 41.7 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.7 4.4 4.5 4.8 4.6 $9.66 10.01 10.32 10.57 10.83 11.12 11.43 11.82 12.28 12.77 $7.64 7.52 7.45 7.41 7.39 7.40 7.39 7.43 7.55 7.75 $10.48 10.83 11.18 11.46 11.74 12.07 12.37 12.77 13.17 13.49 $334.24 345.35 353.98 363.61 373.64 385.86 394.34 406.61 424.89 441.84 $264.22 259.47 255.40 254.99 254.87 256.73 255.07 255.73 261.31 268.11 $429.68 441.86 455.03 469.86 486.04 506.94 514.59 531.23 553.14 562.53 $513.17 526.01 533.40 537.70 553.63 573.00 587.00 603.33 623.57 642.53 $188.72 194.40 198.48 205.06 209.95 216.46 221.47 230.11 241.03 254.63 3.8 3.3 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.3 2.2 3.1 4.5 4.0 ¥1.0 ¥1.8 ¥1.6 ¥.2 ¥.0 .7 ¥.6 .3 2.2 2.6 1998: Feb ............ Mar ............ Apr ............. May ............. June ............ July ............ Aug .............. Sept ............. Oct .............. Nov ............. Dec ............. 1999: Jan r ............ Feb r ........... Mar p ........... 34.7 34.6 34.5 34.7 34.6 34.6 34.6 34.4 34.6 34.5 34.6 34.5 34.6 34.5 42.0 41.8 41.4 41.8 41.8 41.7 41.7 41.6 41.7 41.7 41.7 41.6 41.6 41.6 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.5 12.59 12.63 12.70 12.73 12.76 12.79 12.85 12.87 12.90 12.94 12.98 13.03 13.06 13.09 7.69 7.71 7.73 7.74 7.75 7.76 7.78 7.79 7.79 7.80 7.81 7.83 7.84 .............. 13.42 13.46 13.44 13.47 13.47 13.42 13.52 13.57 13.57 13.58 13.58 r 13.63 13.66 13.70 436.87 437.00 438.15 441.73 441.50 442.53 444.61 442.73 446.34 446.43 449.11 449.54 451.88 451.61 266.71 266.79 266.84 268.53 268.23 268.36 269.30 268.00 269.69 269.26 270.39 269.99 271.40 .............. 563.64 562.63 556.42 563.05 563.05 559.61 563.78 564.51 565.87 566.29 566.29 r 567.01 568.26 569.92 640.53 631.40 636.62 635.36 633.98 652.29 651.80 636.29 652.58 649.90 664.39 r 664.58 659.45 648.96 249.11 249.70 252.30 253.75 253.17 255.50 256.07 256.94 257.54 256.65 258.39 259.84 261.92 260.42 4.3 3.7 4.1 4.3 4.6 4.5 3.8 3.4 3.8 3.2 3.5 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.6 2.7 2.7 3.1 3.0 2.4 2.3 2.5 1.8 2.0 1.3 1.8 .............. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. 2 Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI–W) (on a 1982=100 base). Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY Index (June 1989 = 100) Percent change from 3 months earlier Period Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits 1 Total compensation Wages and salaries 12 months earlier Benefits 1 Total compensation Wages and salaries 4.8 4.6 4.4 3.5 3.6 3.1 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.5 4.1 4.0 3.7 2.6 3.1 2.8 2.8 3.4 3.9 3.9 Benefits 1 Not seasonally adjusted 1989: 1990: 1991: 1992: 1993: 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec .................................................................... .................................................................... .................................................................... .................................................................... .................................................................... .................................................................... ................................................................... .................................................................... .................................................................... .................................................................... 102.3 107.0 111.7 115.6 119.8 123.5 126.7 130.6 135.1 139.8 102.0 106.1 110.0 112.9 116.4 119.7 123.1 127.3 132.3 137.4 102.6 109.4 116.2 122.2 128.3 133.0 135.9 138.6 141.8 145.2 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. Seasonally adjusted 1995: Mar ................................................................... June .................................................................. Sept ................................................................... Dec .................................................................... 1996: Mar ................................................................... June .................................................................. Sept ................................................................... Dec .................................................................... 1997: Mar ................................................................... June .................................................................. Sept ................................................................... Dec .................................................................... 1998: Mar ................................................................... June .................................................................. Sept ................................................................... Dec .................................................................... 124.4 125.3 126.1 126.9 127.7 128.8 129.7 130.6 131.4 132.6 133.7 135.1 136.0 137.2 138.7 139.7 120.6 121.5 122.4 123.2 124.4 125.6 126.5 127.4 128.5 129.7 131.0 132.5 133.6 134.9 136.6 137.6 1 Employer costs for employee benefits. NOTE.—The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries. 133.9 134.6 135.3 136.0 136.1 137.0 137.8 138.6 138.8 139.7 140.4 141.7 142.1 143.2 144.2 145.1 0.7 .7 .6 .6 .6 .9 .7 .7 .6 .9 .8 1.0 .7 .9 1.1 .7 6.1 6.6 6.2 5.2 5.0 3.7 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.4 Not seasonally adjusted 0.7 .7 .7 .7 1.0 1.0 .7 .7 .9 .9 1.0 1.1 .8 1.0 1.3 .7 0.3 .5 .5 .5 .1 .7 .6 .6 .1 .6 .5 .9 .3 .8 .7 .6 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.5 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.3 3.9 2.9 2.6 2.1 2.2 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.4 Data exclude farm and household workers. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output per hour of all persons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Output 1 Business sector Hours of all persons 2 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Compensation per hour 3 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real compensation per hour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit labor costs Implicit price deflator 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 94.4 98.3 100.0 102.4 103.7 105.8 106.8 109.0 111.1 105.7 106.3 107.3 107.8 108.5 108.7 108.8 109.9 110.2 111.2 111.5 111.3 94.2 98.1 100.0 102.2 103.6 105.4 106.5 108.9 111.0 105.4 106.0 107.0 107.5 108.5 108.7 108.8 109.8 110.1 111.1 111.5 111.2 94.1 97.7 100.0 102.5 104.8 106.9 108.6 110.4 111.0 107.9 108.4 108.8 109.2 109.9 110.3 110.6 110.8 110.9 111.0 111.1 111.2 93.8 97.6 100.0 102.5 104.9 107.0 108.5 110.6 111.4 107.9 108.2 108.6 109.2 110.0 110.4 110.8 111.1 111.2 111.3 111.5 111.5 5.0 4.2 1.9 2.2 1.4 1.8 1.1 2.3 1.9 4.5 ¥.3 2.4 1.7 2.5 1.8 1.2 .9 ¥1.5 2.2 3.7 2.1 3.5 .7 .3 4.0 1.1 3.7 1.4 ¥1.1 4.0 3.8 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.7 .6 2.0 2.1 2.7 2.5 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 2.5 1.4 1.1 .9 .2 .3 .5 .2 4.2 4.1 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.4 1.9 .7 2.1 2.5 3.2 2.4 1.9 1.6 1.2 .9 1.7 1.3 1.4 2.2 3.1 1.5 1.4 .9 .6 .2 .7 .1 Indexes, 1992=100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 1990 .......................... 1991 .......................... 1992 .......................... 1993 .......................... 1994 .......................... 1995 .......................... 1996 .......................... 1997 .......................... 1998 r* ........................ 1996: I ..................... II .................... III .................. IV ................... 1997: I ..................... II .................... III .................. IV ................... 1998: I ..................... II .................... III .................. IV r* ................ 96.1 96.7 100.0 100.1 100.7 101.0 103.7 105.2 107.8 103.0 103.8 103.8 104.2 104.4 104.8 105.8 106.0 107.1 107.1 107.8 109.1 96.3 97.0 100.0 100.1 100.6 101.2 103.7 104.9 107.3 103.1 103.8 103.8 104.0 104.1 104.5 105.4 105.6 106.6 106.6 107.3 108.5 98.6 96.9 100.0 102.7 107.0 109.9 114.5 119.8 125.3 112.5 114.2 114.9 116.4 117.8 119.1 120.6 121.7 123.7 124.3 125.5 127.8 98.8 97.1 100.0 103.0 107.0 110.2 114.8 119.9 125.5 112.8 114.5 115.2 116.6 117.9 119.2 120.6 121.8 123.9 124.4 125.6 127.9 102.6 100.2 100.0 102.6 106.2 108.8 110.4 113.8 116.3 109.2 110.0 110.7 111.7 112.9 113.6 114.0 114.8 115.6 116.1 116.4 117.1 102.6 100.1 100.0 102.9 106.3 108.9 110.7 114.3 117.0 109.4 110.3 111.0 112.1 113.3 114.1 114.5 115.3 116.3 116.7 117.1 117.9 90.8 95.1 100.0 102.5 104.4 106.8 110.7 114.7 119.7 108.9 110.4 111.4 112.3 113.2 113.9 115.0 116.5 117.9 119.1 120.2 121.4 90.7 95.1 100.0 102.2 104.2 106.7 110.4 114.3 119.1 108.7 110.1 111.0 111.9 112.9 113.6 114.6 116.0 117.4 118.5 119.7 120.7 97.4 98.0 100.0 99.5 98.8 98.4 99.0 100.3 103.0 98.5 98.9 99.3 99.2 99.5 99.8 100.3 r101.1 r 102.1 102.7 103.2 103.7 97.3 98.0 100.0 99.3 98.7 98.2 98.7 99.9 102.5 98.3 98.7 r 99.0 98.9 99.2 99.5 99.9 r 100.7 r 101.6 r 102.1 102.7 103.2 Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 1990 .......................... 1991 .......................... 1992 .......................... 1993 .......................... 1994 .......................... 1995 .......................... 1996 .......................... 1997 .......................... 1998 r* ........................ 1994: I ..................... II .................... III .................. IV ................... 1995: I ..................... II .................... III .................. IV ................... 1996: I ..................... II .................... III .................. IV ................... 1997: I ..................... II .................... III .................. IV ................... 1998: I ..................... II .................... III .................. IV r* ................ 1 Output 0.7 .6 3.4 .1 .6 .3 2.7 1.5 2.4 0 ¥.1 ¥1.4 1.2 ¥1.1 .9 1.4 3.2 4.5 3.4 .0 1.3 .7 1.8 3.6 .8 4.1 .1 2.6 4.8 0.5 .7 3.1 .1 .5 .6 2.4 1.2 2.2 ¥.2 .5 ¥1.8 1.8 ¥.5 .9 1.9 2.7 4.2 3.0 ¥.1 1.0 .1 1.6 3.4 .9 3.6 .3 2.5 4.6 0.8 ¥1.7 3.2 2.7 4.1 2.7 4.2 4.6 4.6 2.6 6.4 1.5 4.6 2.0 .3 4.4 3.6 4.5 6.4 2.5 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.9 3.6 7.1 1.7 4.0 7.4 0.7 ¥1.8 3.0 3.0 3.9 3.0 4.1 4.5 4.6 1.6 6.6 1.5 5.0 2.5 .5 4.9 3.3 4.2 6.4 2.5 5.0 4.5 4.5 4.8 4.0 7.0 1.7 4.0 7.5 0.2 ¥2.3 ¥.2 2.6 3.5 2.4 1.5 3.1 2.2 2.6 6.5 3.0 3.3 3.0 ¥.6 3.0 .3 .0 2.9 2.5 3.7 4.2 2.8 1.3 2.7 2.8 1.6 1.4 2.4 0.3 ¥2.4 ¥.1 2.9 3.3 2.4 1.6 3.2 2.4 1.8 6.1 3.4 3.1 2.9 ¥.5 3.0 .6 .0 3.3 2.6 4.0 4.4 2.8 1.3 3.0 3.3 1.4 1.4 2.8 refers to real gross domestic product originating in the sector. 2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers’ contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed. 4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI–U). Data revised beginning 1994 to reflect recent annual CPI–U seasonal adjustment revisions. 5 Current dollar gross domestic output divided by the output index. 16 5.7 4.8 5.2 2.5 1.8 2.3 3.6 3.6 4.3 4.0 ¥.3 .8 3.2 2.0 3.0 2.9 3.8 2.6 5.6 3.8 3.1 3.5 2.4 4.0 5.2 5.0 4.1 3.7 4.0 5.5 4.9 5.1 2.2 1.9 2.4 3.5 3.5 4.2 4.3 .2 .5 3.5 2.0 2.8 3.1 3.6 2.7 5.2 3.6 3.1 3.7 2.4 3.8 4.9 4.7 4.1 3.9 3.5 0.3 .5 2.1 ¥.5 ¥.7 ¥.5 .7 1.2 2.7 r1.9 r¥2.5 ¥2.8 r.8 r¥.9 r¥.2 .8 r1.4 r¥.7 r1.9 r1.5 r¥.1 r 1.0 r 1.2 2.0 r 3.3 r 3.9 r 2.3 r 2.0 2.2 0.1 .7 2.1 ¥.7 ¥.6 ¥.5 .6 1.2 2.6 r2.1 r¥2.1 ¥3.2 r1.1 r¥.9 r¥.4 1.0 r1.2 r¥.6 r1.5 1.2 r¥.2 r 1.1 r 1.2 1.8 r 3.0 r 3.7 r 2.2 r 2.3 1.7 5.0 4.1 1.7 2.4 1.2 2.0 .9 2.1 1.9 4.0 ¥.2 2.3 1.9 3.1 2.0 1.5 .6 ¥1.8 2.1 3.8 1.8 2.8 .6 .4 4.4 .8 4.0 1.0 ¥.8 NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. * Data based on GDP data released February 26, 1999. Data for 1998: IV shown elsewhere in this issue were released March 31, 1999. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production rose in February; capacity utilization fell. [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Total industrial production Percent Period 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Index, 1992=100 From preceding month Industry production indexes, 1992=100 change 1 From year earlier Capacity utilization rate, percent 2 Manufacturing Total Durable Nondurable Mining Utilities Total industry Manufacturing ........................................... ........................................... ........................................... ........................................... ........................................... ........................................... ........................................... ........................................... ........................................... .......................................... 99.1 98.9 97.0 100.0 103.5 109.1 114.4 119.5 126.8 131.4 .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 1.8 ¥.2 ¥2.0 3.1 3.5 5.4 4.9 4.5 6.0 3.6 99.0 98.5 96.2 100.0 103.7 109.9 115.9 121.4 129.7 135.1 100.5 99.0 95.5 100.0 105.4 114.2 124.0 134.1 147.1 157.5 97.3 97.9 97.0 100.0 101.8 105.2 107.1 107.9 111.3 111.9 103.2 104.8 102.6 100.0 99.9 102.4 102.0 103.7 105.8 104.1 97.1 98.3 100.4 100.0 103.9 105.3 109.0 112.6 112.8 r 114.1 84.1 82.3 79.3 80.3 81.3 83.2 83.4 82.4 82.9 r 81.8 83.6 81.4 77.9 79.5 80.5 82.5 82.7 81.4 82.0 80.8 1998: Feb ................................. Mar ................................. Apr ................................. May ................................ June ............................... July ................................ Aug ................................. Sept ............................... Oct ................................. Nov r ............................... Dec r ............................... 130.2 130.7 131.3 131.9 130.6 130.5 132.4 131.9 132.4 132.2 132.4 ¥0.1 .4 .5 .4 ¥.9 ¥.1 1.4 ¥.4 .4 ¥.2 .2 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.1 3.6 2.7 3.6 2.6 2.4 1.7 1.6 133.7 134.1 134.9 135.4 133.7 133.6 135.7 135.2 136.1 136.4 136.6 154.0 155.2 156.2 157.2 154.8 154.4 159.8 159.6 161.2 161.0 161.2 112.8 112.4 113.0 113.0 112.0 112.1 111.3 110.6 110.9 111.6 111.7 107.5 105.8 105.7 105.4 104.7 104.6 103.7 102.4 102.0 101.1 100.0 109.0 114.0 112.8 115.2 118.7 118.3 120.2 120.3 116.5 110.6 112.5 82.6 82.6 82.6 82.6 81.5 81.1 82.0 81.3 81.3 80.8 80.7 81.8 81.6 81.7 81.6 80.2 79.8 80.7 80.1 80.3 80.1 79.9 1999: Jan r ............................... Feb p ............................... 132.4 132.6 .0 .2 1.6 1.9 136.7 136.9 161.5 162.3 111.6 111.4 97.0 97.4 114.6 114.0 80.4 80.3 79.6 79.5 1 Percent 2 Output changes based on unrounded indexes. as percent of capacity. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1992=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Products Materials Final products Intermediate products Consumer goods Equipment Period Total Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total 1 Business Defense and space equipment Total Construction supplies Business supplies Total Energy 1989 ............................................................... 1990 ............................................................... 1991 ............................................................... 1992 ............................................................... 1993 ............................................................... 1994 ............................................................... 1995 ............................................................... 1996 ............................................................... 1997 ............................................................... 1998 r ............................................................. 99.9 99.5 97.7 100.0 103.4 107.5 111.5 115.5 121.1 125.4 97.7 97.3 97.0 100.0 103.1 107.1 109.5 111.3 114.1 115.2 101.3 98.0 93.0 100.0 109.4 119.5 121.5 124.5 129.6 135.7 96.7 97.1 98.1 100.0 101.4 104.0 106.5 108.0 110.2 110.2 103.7 103.2 98.8 100.0 104.0 108.3 114.9 122.7 133.9 144.1 98.8 98.2 95.7 100.0 105.6 112.8 122.5 133.5 148.7 163.5 117.4 115.9 106.7 100.0 93.8 87.0 83.0 79.0 76.2 75.7 102.9 101.9 97.5 100.0 102.5 106.3 108.1 110.9 115.2 118.0 105.5 102.9 96.2 100.0 103.4 110.6 112.6 117.9 122.4 127.2 101.3 101.4 98.3 100.0 102.0 103.7 105.5 106.8 111.0 112.6 97.0 97.2 95.9 100.0 103.9 111.9 120.4 127.8 138.2 144.0 99.5 100.6 100.8 100.0 99.5 101.2 102.4 103.5 103.7 103.6 1998: Feb ..................................................... Mar ..................................................... Apr ..................................................... May .................................................... June ................................................... July .................................................... Aug ..................................................... Sept .................................................... Oct ...................................................... Nov r ................................................... Dec r ................................................... 124.2 125.3 126.2 126.6 125.5 124.7 126.8 126.0 126.7 126.1 125.8 115.2 115.8 116.4 116.8 115.1 114.0 116.1 114.8 115.2 114.8 115.0 134.5 135.9 136.9 138.3 130.7 124.6 140.1 137.4 140.5 138.9 139.8 110.5 110.8 111.4 111.5 111.2 111.2 110.3 109.3 109.1 109.0 109.0 140.3 142.4 143.6 144.2 144.1 143.9 146.0 146.2 147.5 146.5 145.3 157.0 160.1 162.2 163.1 163.6 163.5 166.6 167.4 169.0 168.1 167.5 76.3 75.9 75.9 76.0 75.8 76.1 76.5 75.5 76.4 75.7 74.6 117.1 116.9 117.3 118.2 118.0 119.1 119.1 118.3 119.0 119.3 120.0 125.7 124.7 125.4 126.6 126.1 128.5 128.0 126.9 128.4 129.6 131.1 112.1 112.2 112.5 113.3 113.2 113.6 113.8 113.3 113.5 113.2 113.4 142.5 142.7 143.1 143.6 141.8 141.9 144.4 144.4 144.5 144.6 145.3 102.8 103.7 103.8 104.3 104.8 104.8 104.4 105.2 103.7 101.5 103.3 1999: Jan r ................................................... Feb p ................................................... 125.8 125.9 115.1 115.1 140.5 141.7 109.0 108.7 145.1 145.4 167.5 167.8 74.3 75.2 120.2 120.2 131.6 131.5 113.5 113.6 145.2 145.7 101.5 101.7 1 Includes oil and gas well drilling and manufactured homes, not shown separately. [1992=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Durable manufactures Primary metals Period Total Iron and steel Fabricated metal products Industrial machinery and equipment Electrical machinery Nondurable manufactures Transportation equipment Total Motor vehicles and parts Lumber and products Apparel products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Foods 1989 ............................................................... 1990 ............................................................... 1991 ............................................................... 1992 ............................................................... 1993 ............................................................... 1994 ............................................................... 1995 ............................................................... 1996 ............................................................... 1997 ............................................................... 1998 r ............................................................. 104.9 104.0 96.7 100.0 105.7 113.4 116.8 119.8 125.3 123.8 106.2 106.4 96.0 100.0 107.1 113.7 117.7 119.2 124.2 121.1 104.8 101.2 96.2 100.0 104.4 112.2 116.4 120.2 124.7 127.3 103.0 100.1 95.4 100.0 109.9 124.9 143.9 159.8 179.4 203.6 85.8 87.7 89.6 100.0 109.6 131.4 166.3 206.0 253.4 291.8 105.1 102.3 96.5 100.0 103.6 107.4 106.4 107.9 117.1 123.0 101.2 95.3 88.5 100.0 113.2 130.4 132.7 132.6 139.9 141.1 104.3 101.6 94.5 100.0 100.8 105.9 107.9 110.4 114.2 117.0 100.3 97.2 97.8 100.0 102.4 106.3 107.1 104.7 102.8 99.2 103.5 103.1 99.1 100.0 100.7 100.7 101.4 101.6 105.2 105.1 95.1 97.3 96.4 100.0 101.5 104.7 107.3 110.0 114.9 115.5 95.9 97.0 98.4 100.0 102.0 103.7 105.8 105.4 108.0 109.6 1998: Feb ..................................................... Mar ..................................................... Apr ..................................................... May .................................................... June ................................................... July .................................................... Aug ..................................................... Sept .................................................... Oct ...................................................... Nov r ................................................... Dec r ................................................... 128.1 127.1 127.5 126.5 122.1 122.6 124.4 120.1 120.6 118.7 118.8 128.2 127.7 126.7 125.5 119.8 120.2 122.5 113.4 114.4 109.7 114.3 126.6 127.2 127.8 128.7 128.0 127.8 126.3 126.2 126.9 127.7 128.6 192.3 198.4 200.6 202.5 205.8 209.0 207.0 207.7 211.2 211.1 212.3 278.5 278.2 280.8 282.0 285.5 289.4 290.8 297.7 302.4 304.8 306.2 121.5 122.3 123.3 125.2 114.2 108.2 130.3 127.6 128.4 127.1 125.3 140.4 140.0 140.8 144.1 121.1 107.6 154.2 149.9 150.2 148.8 146.7 116.2 115.3 116.1 116.4 116.7 117.5 118.5 117.0 118.0 118.3 121.3 101.1 101.6 101.0 100.4 100.5 100.1 99.2 98.3 97.3 95.5 95.3 106.4 105.4 105.5 105.6 105.5 105.4 104.9 104.6 104.2 105.4 105.0 116.7 116.6 117.7 116.9 116.2 115.7 114.3 113.3 113.1 114.7 114.3 109.9 109.7 110.3 110.7 109.2 109.0 107.9 107.7 109.1 111.3 111.0 1999: Jan r ................................................... Feb p ................................................... 119.9 119.8 115.6 115.5 127.8 127.6 212.7 214.6 309.6 314.3 124.3 123.9 146.3 146.0 122.3 121.4 94.4 94.3 103.8 103.1 113.7 114.4 112.0 111.4 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 NEW CONSTRUCTION [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Construction contracts 3 Private Period Total new construction expenditures Residential Total New housing units Total 1 Commercial and industrial 2 Other Federal and State and local Total value index (1992=100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) Billions of dollars 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 ........................................ ........................................ ........................................ ........................................ ........................................ ........................................ ........................................ ........................................ ........................................ ........................................ 469.8 468.5 424.2 452.1 478.6 519.5 538.1 583.6 618.2 r 655.4 371.6 361.1 314.1 336.2 362.7 399.3 407.5 446.3 471.2 r 509.5 196.6 182.9 157.8 187.8 210.5 238.9 230.7 256.5 265.6 296.5 1998: Feb ............................... Mar .............................. Apr ............................... May .............................. June ............................. July .............................. Aug .............................. Sept ............................. Oct r ............................. Nov r ............................. Dec r ............................. 638.2 639.9 646.0 635.4 650.3 658.7 663.3 670.1 668.3 671.0 679.4 490.9 494.3 500.1 496.5 503.6 511.5 516.6 521.0 523.6 525.5 531.0 282.5 286.0 289.7 288.0 291.9 299.3 300.6 305.0 306.3 307.3 311.5 1999: Jan r ............................. Feb p ............................ 691.0 706.5 536.5 544.8 317.4 319.9 139.2 128.0 110.6 129.6 144.1 167.9 162.9 179.4 187.1 211.8 118.0 119.4 93.7 82.2 84.4 93.3 107.9 119.6 127.7 132.8 57.1 58.8 62.6 66.2 67.8 67.1 68.9 70.2 77.8 r 80.3 98.2 107.5 110.1 115.8 116.0 120.2 130.7 137.3 147.1 145.9 108 98 92 100 108 118 122 132 142 r 152 961 783 577 556 589 744 862 875 1,027 1,123 200.6 203.6 206.9 204.3 208.0 212.6 213.1 216.6 219.2 223.5 228.3 127.8 127.6 130.2 128.6 132.3 132.0 133.9 134.0 136.7 138.9 139.9 80.6 80.7 80.2 79.8 79.4 80.2 82.1 82.0 80.7 79.3 79.6 147.3 145.6 145.9 138.9 146.7 147.2 146.7 149.1 144.6 145.5 148.4 r 151 151 157 159 ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... 232.5 235.9 138.6 144.7 80.5 80.2 154.5 161.7 151 144 ...................... ...................... Annual rates 1 Includes residential improvements, not shown separately. hotels and motels. Dodge series. r 154 r 153 r 156 r 155 r 152 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., F.W. Dodge Division. 2 Includes 3 F.W. r 147 r 152 NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New private housing units Period Total 1989 ........................................ 1990 ........................................ 1991 ........................................ 1992 ........................................ 1993 ........................................ 1994 ........................................ 1995 ........................................ 1996 ........................................ 1997 ........................................ 1998 r ....................................... New private homes Units started, by type of structure 1,376.1 1,192.7 1,013.9 1,199.7 1,287.6 1,457.0 1,354.1 1,476.8 1,474.0 1,616.9 1 unit 1,003.3 894.8 840.4 1,029.9 1,125.7 1,198.4 1,076.2 1,160.9 1,133.7 1,271.4 2–4 units 5 or more units 55.2 37.5 35.6 30.7 29.4 35.0 33.7 45.2 44.5 42.6 317.6 260.4 137.9 139.0 132.6 223.5 244.1 270.8 295.8 302.9 Units authorized 1,338.4 1,110.8 948.8 1,094.9 1,199.1 3 1,371.6 1,332.5 1,425.6 1,441.1 1,604.3 Units completed Homes sold Homes for sale at end of period 1 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 2 1,422.8 1,308.0 1,090.8 1,157.5 1,192.7 1,346.9 1,312.6 1,412.9 1,400.5 1,474.2 650 534 509 610 666 670 667 757 804 886 365 321 284 265 293 336 370 322 283 295 2 7.4 7.2 7.4 7.4 2 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.9 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1998: Feb ............................... Mar .............................. Apr ............................... May .............................. June ............................. July .............................. Aug .............................. Sept .............................. Oct ............................... Nov .............................. Dec r ............................. 1,644 1,583 1,542 1,541 1,626 1,719 1,615 1,576 1,698 1,654 1,750 1,283 1,234 1,235 1,221 1,274 1,306 1,264 1,251 1,298 1,375 1,383 68 44 43 50 45 41 50 27 40 30 29 293 305 264 270 307 372 301 298 360 249 338 1,635 1,569 1,517 1,543 1,517 1,581 1,618 1,544 1,690 1,656 1,729 c1,439 1,484 1,457 1,480 1,549 1,517 1,459 1,455 1,600 1,440 887 836 880 893 909 883 836 861 903 r 985 964 282 285 287 287 286 283 285 289 293 292 295 ...................... 7.7 ...................... ...................... 8.0 ...................... ...................... 8.2 ...................... ...................... 7.8 1999: Jan r ............................. Feb p ............................ 1,810 1,799 1,398 1,413 57 32 355 354 1,778 1,741 1,645 1,546 899 881 297 301 ...................... ...................... 1 Seasonally adjusted. 2 Revised series beginning 1989 and 1994; not comparable with earlier data, except 1993 data have been revised to be comparable with new series beginning in 1994. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. 3 The 1994 total based on 17,000 permit-issuing places is 1,333.7 thousand units. c1,483 NOTE.—Beginning 1994, units authorized are for 19,000 places. For other data shown, units authorized are for 17,000 places. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade In January, manufacturing and trade sales fell 0.3 percent and inventories fell $0.3 billion. According to advance data, retail sales rose 0.9 percent in February, following a rise of 1.0 percent in January. Manufacturing and trade 1 Wholesale Retail Inventory-sales ratio 4 Sales 2 Period Sales 2 Inventories 3 Sales 2 Inventories 3 Total Durable goods stores Inventories 3 Nondurable goods stores Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Manufacturing and trade 1 Retail Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted 1989 ................................... 1990 ................................... 1991 ................................... 1992 ................................... 1993 ................................... 1994 ................................... 1995 ................................... 1996 ................................... 1997 ................................... 1998 r ................................. 527,039 545,909 542,815 567,176 595,015 637,695 682,501 714,837 749,645 775,796 815,455 840,622 834,595 842,843 869,367 932,267 991,655 1,009,647 1,052,717 1,087,417 143,760 149,506 148,306 154,150 161,560 172,870 188,837 200,115 208,342 213,454 187,009 195,769 200,389 208,242 216,919 235,328 253,556 256,442 273,003 286,962 146,581 153,718 154,661 162,632 172,820 185,823 194,109 205,100 213,851 224,655 54,763 55,736 54,165 58,634 64,996 73,509 78,311 84,044 88,186 94,374 91,818 97,981 100,497 103,999 107,824 112,314 115,798 121,055 125,665 130,280 237,234 239,780 243,256 252,091 268,409 292,062 307,114 316,476 323,581 333,657 121,347 121,159 119,100 123,116 134,600 152,004 163,421 168,891 174,322 178,844 115,887 118,621 124,156 128,975 133,809 140,058 143,693 147,585 149,259 154,813 1.52 1.52 1.53 1.48 1.44 1.41 1.43 1.40 1.38 1.38 1.58 1.56 1.54 1.52 1.51 1.51 1.56 1.52 1.50 1.46 1998: Jan r ....................... Feb r ....................... Mar ......................... Apr ......................... May ........................ June ....................... July ........................ Aug ........................ Sept ....................... Oct .......................... Nov ......................... Dec r ....................... 761,268 767,106 773,877 772,160 772,405 774,639 773,762 772,454 779,478 781,447 785,777 793,647 1,055,285 1,062,188 1,068,754 1,070,555 1,070,022 1,070,515 1,070,875 1,074,870 1,080,866 1,083,366 1,087,970 1,087,417 210,954 210,822 213,781 213,900 213,413 213,904 214,229 211,713 213,856 213,429 214,891 217,403 272,344 275,478 277,624 275,933 277,699 277,518 277,466 280,591 284,128 283,776 285,716 286,962 218,377 220,401 221,105 222,707 225,370 225,625 224,153 224,296 225,141 227,885 229,463 231,997 91,646 92,499 92,607 93,460 95,187 95,284 93,235 93,309 94,066 96,036 96,761 98,639 126,731 127,902 128,498 129,247 130,183 130,341 130,918 130,987 131,075 131,849 132,702 133,358 324,744 325,532 329,182 329,954 326,594 326,296 325,773 325,834 328,186 328,559 331,254 333,657 173,814 174,162 176,350 176,500 173,633 171,952 171,417 171,353 173,166 174,686 177,158 178,844 150,930 151,370 152,832 153,454 152,961 154,344 154,356 154,481 155,020 153,873 154,096 154,813 1.39 1.38 1.38 1.39 1.39 1.38 1.38 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.38 1.37 1.49 1.48 1.49 1.48 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.46 1.44 1.44 1.44 1999: Jan p ....................... Feb p ....................... 791,459 1,087,077 796,689 .................. 215,441 217,609 285,906 287,725 r 234,348 r 99,505 100,732 r 134,843 236,469 1 See page 21 for manufacturing. 2 Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. 3 Seasonally adjusted, end of period. 20 336,298 180,453 155,845 1.37 1.44 135,737 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ 4 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In February, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories rose; new and unfilled orders fell. Manufacturers’ shipments 1 Manufacturers’ inventories 2 Manufacturers’ new orders 1 Durable goods Period Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Total Capital Nondurable goods goods industries, nondefense Manufacturers’ unfilled orders 2 Manufacturers’ inventory— shipments ratio 3 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted 1989 .................................... 1990 .................................... 1991 .................................... 1992 .................................... 1993 .................................... 1994 .................................... 1995 ..................................... 1996 ..................................... 1997 ..................................... 1998 r ................................... 1998: Feb ........................... Mar ........................... Apr ........................... May .......................... June ......................... July .......................... Aug .......................... Sept ......................... Oct ........................... Nov .......................... Dec r ......................... 1999: Jan r ......................... Feb p ......................... 236,698 242,686 239,847 250,394 260,635 279,002 299,555 309,622 327,452 337,687 335,883 338,991 335,553 333,622 335,110 335,380 336,445 340,481 340,133 341,423 344,247 341,670 342,611 123,158 123,776 121,000 128,489 135,886 149,131 160,586 167,013 179,892 189,666 187,298 189,998 186,843 185,789 186,536 186,907 188,789 192,842 193,818 194,823 195,531 194,091 193,975 113,540 118,910 118,847 121,905 124,749 129,870 138,970 142,608 147,560 148,022 148,585 148,993 148,710 147,833 148,574 148,473 147,656 147,639 146,315 146,600 148,716 147,579 148,636 391,212 405,073 390,950 382,510 384,039 404,877 430,985 436,729 456,133 466,798 461,178 461,948 464,668 465,729 466,701 467,636 468,445 468,552 471,031 471,000 466,798 464,873 465,084 257,513 263,209 250,019 238,105 239,334 253,624 268,353 273,815 286,372 295,344 290,153 290,887 293,393 294,375 295,143 295,669 296,913 296,757 298,561 297,981 295,344 293,563 294,554 1 Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. Shipments are the same as sales. 2 Seasonally adjusted, end of period. 133,699 141,864 140,931 144,405 144,705 151,253 162,632 162,914 169,761 171,454 171,025 171,061 171,275 171,354 171,558 171,967 171,532 171,795 172,470 173,019 171,454 171,310 170,530 239,572 244,507 238,805 248,212 257,698 279,733 300,632 312,442 329,335 336,140 334,446 334,712 337,502 330,233 331,188 334,821 337,815 340,388 334,663 335,930 343,982 349,311 340,493 126,055 125,583 119,849 126,308 133,081 149,542 161,782 169,711 181,726 188,308 186,033 185,963 188,921 182,777 182,986 186,617 190,304 192,783 188,523 189,193 195,574 201,708 191,794 32,988 33,331 30,471 31,524 31,694 35,697 40,511 44,631 48,165 51,700 50,436 50,502 51,240 50,834 51,053 50,763 55,371 53,540 50,138 50,675 52,005 56,863 52,904 113,516 118,924 118,957 121,905 124,617 130,191 138,851 142,730 147,610 147,832 148,413 148,749 148,581 147,456 148,202 148,204 147,511 147,605 146,140 146,737 148,408 147,603 148,699 508,849 531,131 519,199 492,893 457,810 466,699 479,674 513,062 536,131 519,038 539,189 534,910 536,859 533,470 529,548 528,989 530,359 530,266 524,796 519,303 519,038 526,677 524,559 1.63 1.65 1.65 1.54 1.47 1.41 1.41 1.40 1.37 1.38 1.37 1.36 1.38 1.40 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.36 1.36 1.36 3 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES The producer price index for all finished goods fell 0.4 percent in February. Prices of finished consumer foods fell 1.4 percent, while prices of other finished consumer goods fell 0.3 percent. Capital equipment prices rose 0.1 percent. [1982=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Finished goods Finished goods excluding consumer foods Period 1989 ............................. 1990 ............................. 1991 ............................. 1992 ............................. 1993 ............................. 1994 ............................. 1995 ............................. 1996 ............................. 1997 ............................. 1998 p ........................... 1998: Feb .................... Mar ................... Apr .................... May ................... June .................. July ................... Aug ................... Sept ................... Octr ................... Nov ................... Dec .................... 1999: Jan .................... Feb .................... 1 Intermediate 22 Total finished goods Consumer foods 113.6 119.2 121.7 123.2 124.7 125.5 127.9 131.3 131.8 130.6 130.5 130.5 130.7 130.6 130.4 130.7 130.3 130.6 131.0 130.6 131.1 131.8 131.3 118.7 124.4 124.1 123.3 125.7 126.8 129.0 133.6 134.5 134.3 134.3 134.0 134.6 133.9 133.8 134.5 134.1 134.4 135.0 134.3 134.3 136.5 134.6 Consumer goods Total Total 111.8 117.4 120.9 123.1 124.4 125.1 127.5 130.5 130.9 129.5 129.3 129.4 129.4 129.6 129.3 129.5 129.1 129.4 129.7 129.4 130.1 130.4 130.2 materials for food manufacturing and feeds. 108.9 115.3 118.7 120.8 121.7 121.6 124.0 127.6 128.2 126.4 126.2 126.2 126.4 126.6 126.3 126.5 126.1 126.2 126.7 126.3 127.3 127.8 127.4 Durable 117.6 120.4 123.9 125.7 128.0 130.9 132.7 134.2 133.7 132.8 132.8 132.8 132.8 132.5 132.1 132.7 132.4 133.1 133.4 133.3 133.3 132.9 132.8 Nondurable 103.8 111.5 115.0 117.3 117.6 116.2 118.8 123.3 124.3 122.2 121.8 121.9 122.1 122.5 122.3 122.4 121.9 121.8 122.3 121.7 123.2 124.0 123.6 Capital equipment 118.8 122.9 126.7 129.1 131.4 134.1 136.7 138.3 138.2 137.5 137.6 137.7 137.6 137.5 137.3 137.4 137.2 137.6 137.7 137.7 137.7 137.5 137.6 Total finished consumer goods 112.1 118.2 120.5 121.7 123.0 123.3 125.6 129.5 130.2 128.9 128.7 128.7 128.9 128.9 128.7 129.1 128.6 128.8 129.3 128.8 129.5 130.5 129.7 Intermediate materials Crude materials Total Foods and feeds 1 Other Total Foodstuffs and feedstuffs Other 112.0 114.5 114.4 114.7 116.2 118.5 124.9 125.7 125.6 123.0 124.1 123.7 123.7 123.6 123.2 123.2 122.8 122.4 122.2 121.9 121.3 121.4 120.8 113.8 113.3 111.1 110.7 112.7 114.8 114.8 128.1 125.4 116.1 118.8 117.2 116.2 116.5 115.8 116.3 115.8 114.7 114.2 114.8 114.1 115.3 113.0 111.9 114.5 114.6 114.9 116.4 118.7 125.5 125.6 125.7 123.5 124.4 124.1 124.1 124.0 123.6 123.6 123.2 122.9 122.7 122.3 121.7 121.8 121.3 103.1 108.9 101.2 100.4 102.4 101.8 102.7 113.8 111.1 96.7 100.7 99.3 100.6 100.0 97.3 97.4 93.3 91.6 93.9 93.1 89.4 91.7 88.6 111.2 113.1 105.5 105.1 108.4 106.5 105.8 121.5 112.2 103.8 106.8 106.5 106.8 105.2 105.6 102.0 100.9 100.0 103.2 102.6 98.4 103.4 100.5 93.4 101.5 94.6 93.5 94.7 94.8 96.8 104.5 106.4 88.3 92.9 90.8 92.7 92.7 88.1 90.7 84.8 82.6 84.1 83.2 80.0 80.4 77.2 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In February, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.1 percent seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted. The index was 1.6 percent above its year-earlier level. [1982–84=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] All items 1 Housing Transportation Shelter Period Rel. imp.3 ................................ 1989 ........................................ 1990 ........................................ 1991 ........................................ 1992 ........................................ 1993 ........................................ 1994 ........................................ 1995 ........................................ 1996 ........................................ 1997 ........................................ 1998 ........................................ 1998: Feb .............................. Mar .............................. Apr .............................. May ............................. June ............................ July ............................. Aug .............................. Sept ............................. Oct ............................... Nov .............................. Dec .............................. 1999: Jan .............................. Feb .............................. Not season- Seasonally ally adjust- adjusted ed (NSA) 100.0 124.0 130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 161.9 162.2 162.5 162.8 163.0 163.2 163.4 163.6 164.0 164.0 163.9 164.3 164.5 ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. 162.1 162.1 162.5 162.9 163.0 163.3 163.5 163.6 163.9 164.2 164.4 164.6 164.7 Total 1 Rent of primary residence Owners’ equivalent rent (12/82 =100) 30.3 132.8 140.0 146.3 151.2 155.7 160.5 165.7 171.0 176.3 182.1 179.6 180.0 180.6 181.2 181.6 181.9 182.5 183.2 183.7 184.3 184.6 184.6 184.9 7.0 132.8 138.4 143.3 146.9 150.3 154.0 157.8 162.0 166.7 172.1 169.8 170.3 170.8 171.3 171.8 172.2 172.8 173.3 173.8 174.4 174.9 175.3 175.6 20.5 137.4 144.8 150.4 155.5 160.5 165.8 171.3 176.8 181.9 187.8 185.5 186.0 186.6 187.1 187.6 188.1 188.6 189.1 189.6 190.0 190.6 190.8 191.3 Food Total 1 15.4 125.1 132.4 136.3 137.9 140.9 144.3 148.4 153.3 157.3 160.7 159.5 159.5 159.6 160.4 160.4 160.9 161.3 161.4 162.2 162.4 162.5 163.3 163.5 39.8 123.0 128.5 133.6 137.5 141.2 144.8 148.5 152.8 156.8 160.4 158.7 159.0 159.6 159.9 160.1 160.4 160.7 161.0 161.3 161.8 162.0 161.9 162.1 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc. excluded beginning 1983. 3 Relative importance, December 1998. Fuels and utilities 4.7 107.8 111.6 115.3 117.8 121.3 122.8 123.7 127.5 130.8 128.5 128.4 128.7 129.0 128.8 128.4 128.3 127.9 127.1 126.8 127.2 127.0 126.8 127.1 Apparel 4.8 118.6 124.1 128.7 131.9 133.7 133.4 132.0 131.7 132.9 133.0 132.8 132.5 132.7 132.9 133.1 132.7 134.0 133.2 133.2 133.1 132.3 130.8 130.6 Total 1 New cars 17.0 ............ 114.1 119.2 120.5 121.0 123.8 125.3 126.5 128.4 130.4 131.5 134.3 136.0 139.1 139.0 143.0 141.4 144.3 141.7 141.6 140.7 142.5 140.9 141.9 140.9 141.8 141.0 141.7 140.3 141.4 140.0 141.8 140.7 141.6 141.2 141.1 140.8 141.3 140.5 141.1 140.5 140.6 140.6 140.4 140.6 140.2 139.9 Motor fuel 2.5 88.5 101.2 99.4 99.0 98.0 98.5 100.0 106.3 106.2 92.2 96.9 94.0 93.2 93.3 92.5 92.2 90.6 89.1 89.8 88.6 86.4 86.4 86.1 Medical care 5.7 149.3 162.8 177.0 190.1 201.4 211.0 220.5 228.2 234.6 242.1 239.0 239.7 240.5 241.4 242.1 242.7 243.7 244.4 244.9 245.4 246.1 246.9 247.5 Energy 2 6.3 94.3 102.1 102.5 103.0 104.2 104.6 105.2 110.1 111.5 102.9 104.8 103.6 103.4 103.3 102.7 102.5 101.5 100.3 100.4 100.1 99.0 98.8 98.8 All items less food and energy 78.3 129.0 135.5 142.1 147.3 152.2 156.5 161.2 165.6 169.5 173.4 172.2 172.4 172.9 173.3 173.5 173.8 174.2 174.5 174.8 175.0 175.6 175.7 175.8 NOTE.—Data beginning January 1999 reflect a change in CPI index formula calculation and other changes in methodology. See Bureau of Labor Statistics news release Consumer Price Index dated February 19, 1999 for details. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Period Change from preceding period Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate Consumer goods Consumer goods Consumer goods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Total finished goods Foods Excluding foods Capital equipment Total finished goods Foods Excluding foods Capital equipment 3.8 3.4 2.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.2 .4 ¥.6 ¥.1 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ 5.2 4.9 2.1 1.2 1.2 .6 1.9 2.7 .4 ¥.9 Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA 1989 .......................... 1990 .......................... 1991 .......................... 1992 .......................... 1993 .......................... 1994 .......................... 1995 .......................... 1996 .......................... 1997 .......................... 1998 p ........................ 4.9 5.7 ¥.1 1.6 .2 1.7 2.3 2.8 ¥1.2 ¥.1 5.2 2.6 ¥1.5 1.6 2.4 1.1 1.9 3.4 ¥.8 ¥.1 5.3 8.7 ¥.7 1.6 ¥1.4 2.0 2.3 3.7 ¥1.5 ¥.2 Change, month to month 1998: Feb ................. Mar ................ Apr ................. May ................ June ............... July ................ Aug ................ Sept ............... Oct r .............. Nov ................ Dec ................. ¥0.1 0 .2 ¥.1 ¥.2 .2 ¥.3 .2 .3 r ¥.3 .4 0.3 ¥.2 .4 ¥.5 ¥.1 .5 ¥.3 .2 .4 r ¥.5 0 ¥0.2 0 .2 .2 ¥.2 .2 ¥.3 .1 .4 r ¥.3 .8 0 .1 ¥.1 ¥.1 ¥.1 .1 ¥.1 .3 .1 r0 0 ¥3.0 ¥2.7 .3 .3 ¥.3 0 ¥.9 .6 .9 .9 1.5 0.3 ¥.9 2.1 ¥1.2 ¥.6 ¥.3 .6 1.8 1.5 .6 ¥.3 ¥5.5 ¥4.6 ¥.3 1.3 .3 .3 ¥1.6 ¥.3 .6 .6 3.5 ¥0.9 0 0 ¥.3 ¥1.2 ¥.6 ¥.9 .9 .9 1.5 .3 ¥1.2 ¥1.8 ¥1.7 ¥1.4 ¥1.5 .2 ¥.3 .2 .5 0 1.1 1.1 .3 0 ¥.4 ¥.7 .9 ¥.3 .6 .6 .6 .7 ¥2.3 ¥3.4 ¥2.9 ¥2.2 ¥2.2 0 ¥.2 0 .5 ¥.5 1.6 ¥0.7 ¥.9 ¥.6 ¥.6 ¥.6 ¥.3 ¥.6 ¥.1 .1 .3 .6 ¥1.5 ¥1.5 ¥.9 ¥.8 ¥.7 ¥.2 ¥.8 ¥.9 ¥.7 ¥.7 ¥.1 1999: Jan ................. Feb ................. .5 ¥.4 1.6 ¥1.4 .4 ¥.3 ¥.1 .1 r 2.5 r 4.5 r 3.5 r ¥.6 2.2 .9 3.5 ¥.3 1.7 1.5 3.0 .7 2.1 2.1 .1 .6 .9 .5 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Housing Transportation Shelter Period All items 1 Food Total 1 Total 1 Rent of primary residence Owners’ equivalent rent Fuels and utilities Apparel Total 1 New cars Motor fuel Medical care Energy 2 All items less food and energy Addendum: All items, percent change (annual rate) From previous quarter 3 From From From 3 6 year months months earlier earlier earlier NSA Change, December to December, NSA 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 ............................. ............................. ............................. ............................. ............................. ............................. ............................. ............................. ............................. ............................. 4.6 6.1 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.5 3.3 1.7 1.6 5.6 5.3 1.9 1.5 2.9 2.9 2.1 4.3 1.5 2.3 3.9 4.5 3.4 2.6 2.7 2.2 3.0 2.9 2.4 2.3 4.9 5.2 3.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.5 2.9 3.4 3.3 4.2 4.1 2.9 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.4 5.1 3.2 1.0 4.0 2.3 6.8 4.8 4.0 5.1 10.4 1.4 36.5 3.7 2.9 3.4 ¥1.5 3.3 ¥16.0 3.0 2.3 1.4 3.0 2.3 1.8 3.2 2.5 .9 2.4 2.8 ¥5.4 3.3 .2 ¥1.6 3.8 3.2 5.9 3.7 1.4 .1 1.5 1.6 ¥4.0 2.8 4.6 ¥.2 4.4 1.6 12.7 3.1 .5 1.0 ¥1.4 ¥1.0 ¥6.2 3.2 ¥2.6 ¥.7 ¥1.7 ¥.1 ¥15.4 0.1 ¥0.1 0 0 .2 .1 .2 .5 .1 0 .2 .3 .1 .2 .1 .1 .2 .5 .2 .1 .1 .1 0.1 .2 .4 .2 .1 .2 .2 .2 .2 .3 .1 0.3 .2 .3 .3 .2 .2 .3 .4 .3 .3 .2 0.2 .3 .3 .3 .3 .2 .3 .3 .3 .3 .3 0.3 ¥0.8 .3 .2 .3 .2 .3 ¥.2 .3 ¥.3 .3 ¥.1 .3 ¥.3 .3 ¥.6 .3 ¥.2 .2 .3 .3 ¥.2 8.5 9.6 7.9 6.6 5.4 4.9 3.9 3.0 2.8 3.4 5.1 18.1 ¥7.4 2.0 ¥1.4 2.2 ¥1.3 8.6 ¥3.4 ¥8.8 4.4 5.2 4.4 3.3 3.2 2.6 3.0 2.6 2.2 2.4 .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... 4.8 5.4 4.2 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.3 1.6 0.3 .1 .3 .2 .1 .2 .2 .2 .2 .1 .3 .......... 1.0 .......... .......... 1.7 .......... .......... 1.7 .......... .......... 1.7 1.0 .7 1.2 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.0 1.5 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 .1 .......... .1 .......... 1.7 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.6 Change, month to month 1998: Feb .................. Mar .................. Apr ................... May .................. June ................. July .................. Aug ................... Sept .................. Oct ................... Nov ................... Dec ................... 1999: Jan .................. Feb ................... 1 Includes .1 .1 .5 .1 ¥.1 .1 0 .2 .2 .2 .1 .3 ¥.2 ¥1.1 .2 ¥.2 items not shown separately. fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc., excluded beginning 1983. 2 Household 24 0.1 ¥0.2 ¥.2 ¥.4 .2 ¥.1 .2 ¥.1 .2 ¥.2 ¥.3 .3 1.0 ¥.1 ¥.6 ¥.4 0 .1 ¥.1 ¥.1 ¥.6 ¥.4 ¥.1 ¥.1 3 Quarterly 0 0 .1 ¥.5 ¥.2 .5 .4 ¥.3 ¥.2 0 .1 ¥2.5 ¥3.0 ¥.9 .1 ¥.9 ¥.3 ¥1.7 ¥1.7 .8 ¥1.3 ¥2.5 0.3 .3 .3 .4 .3 .2 .4 .3 .2 .2 .3 ¥1.7 ¥1.1 ¥.2 ¥.1 ¥.6 ¥.2 ¥1.0 ¥1.2 .1 ¥.3 ¥1.1 0 ¥.5 0 ¥.3 .3 .2 ¥.2 0 changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS In March, prices received by farmers rose 1.0 percent while prices paid by farmers were unchanged. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) [1990–92=100; not seasonally adjusted] Prices received by farmers Period 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 All farm products Prices paid by farmers Livestock and products Crops All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates 1 Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates Production items Ratio 2 ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................... ................................ 104 104 100 98 101 100 102 112 107 101 109 103 101 101 102 105 112 127 116 107 100 105 99 97 100 95 92 99 98 96 96 99 100 101 104 106 109 114 117 115 97 99 100 101 103 106 108 114 117 114 95 99 100 101 104 106 108 114 117 112 108 105 99 97 97 94 94 98 91 88 1998: Mar ..................... Apr ...................... May ...................... June ..................... July ...................... Aug ..................... Sept ..................... Oct ....................... Nov ...................... Dec ...................... 102 104 103 102 102 101 99 99 100 99 111 115 113 107 107 104 101 100 102 100 95 95 95 98 96 98 97 98 97 97 116 116 116 115 115 114 113 114 114 113 115 115 115 114 113 113 111 112 112 112 114 114 114 113 112 111 110 110 110 110 88 90 89 89 89 89 88 87 88 88 1999: Jan ...................... Feb ...................... Mar ...................... 97 96 97 98 96 r94 94 114 114 114 r111 100 115 115 115 111 r99 84 83 84 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. 111 NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910–14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1990–92=100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK AND DEBT MEASURES In February, M2 growth slowed and M3 growth accelerated. [Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] M1 M2 M3 Debt Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers’ checks, and other checkable deposits (OCDs) M1 plus retail MMMF balances, savings deposits (including MMDAs), and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, RPs, Eurodollars, and institutiononly MMMF balances Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors (monthly average of adjacent month-end levels) 1 Dec ...................................................... Dec ...................................................... Dec ...................................................... Dec ...................................................... Dec ...................................................... Dec ...................................................... Dec ...................................................... Dec ...................................................... Dec ...................................................... Dec r .................................................... 792.6 824.6 896.7 1,024.4 1,129.3 1,149.7 1,126.7 1,081.3 1,074.9 1,093.3 3,159.9 3,279.1 3,379.8 3,434.0 3,487.4 3,502.0 3,649.1 3,823.9 4,046.6 4,401.9 4,091.0 4,155.6 4,208.6 4,220.0 4,279.7 4,353.9 4,618.5 4,955.6 5,404.7 5,999.6 10,157.0 10,823.2 11,296.1 11,818.2 r 12,406.5 r 13,003.5 r 13,703.2 r 14,425.2 r 15,140.2 16,084.5 0.8 4.0 8.7 14.2 10.2 1.8 ¥2.0 ¥4.0 ¥.6 1.7 5.5 3.8 3.1 1.6 1.6 .4 4.2 4.8 5.8 8.8 4.0 1.6 1.3 .3 1.4 1.7 6.1 7.3 9.1 11.0 1998: Jan ...................................................... Feb ...................................................... Mar ..................................................... Apr ...................................................... May .................................................... June ................................................... July .................................................... Aug r .................................................... Sept r ................................................... Oct r ..................................................... Nov r .................................................... Dec r ................................................... 1,073.8 1,076.0 1,080.6 1,082.1 1,078.2 1,077.8 1,075.4 1,072.2 1,074.7 1,080.4 1,089.0 1,093.3 4,071.4 4,100.9 4,126.2 4,155.2 4,174.8 4,198.6 4,216.1 4,241.7 4,285.5 4,326.9 4,365.2 4,401.9 5,449.6 5,485.2 5,543.8 5,589.3 5,631.3 5,674.1 5,694.2 5,749.7 5,812.4 5,874.5 5,940.2 5,999.6 r 15,207.4 15,748.8 15,819.7 15,903.6 15,998.0 16,084.5 1.2 .7 3.0 3.8 2.0 .5 .3 ¥.7 ¥1.1 ¥.3 2.0 2.9 7.2 7.1 7.3 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.1 6.9 7.7 8.3 9.1 9.7 10.2 9.6 10.4 10.7 10.4 10.0 9.0 9.6 9.7 10.2 11.0 11.5 1999: Jan r .................................................... Feb ...................................................... 1,090.7 1,091.9 4,425.7 4,446.5 6,018.3 6,068.8 p 16,160.7 ...................... 2.8 3.7 9.9 9.7 11.4 11.1 Period 1989: 1990: 1991: 1992: 1993: 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data derived from flow of funds accounts. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a simple annual rate. 26 r 15,285.1 r 15,368.5 r 15,446.6 r 15,517.2 r 15,590.6 r 15,672.0 Percent change from year or 6 months earlier 2 M1 NOTE.—See p. 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. M2 M3 Debt 7.3 6.6 4.4 4.6 5.0 4.8 5.4 5.3 r 5.0 6.2 r 5.6 r 5.7 r 5.9 r 6.0 r 5.9 r 5.9 r 6.1 6.1 5.9 5.9 6.2 6.3 6.2 ............ COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period 1989: 1990: 1991: 1992: 1993: 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Currency Nonbank Demand travelers deposits checks Other checkable deposits (OCDs) Money market mutual fund balances Retail Savings deposits, including money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) Institution only Small denomination time deposits 1 Overnight and term Overnight Large repurdenomand term chase ination Euroagreetime dollars ments deposits 1 (net) (RPs) (net) .............................................. .............................................. .............................................. .............................................. .............................................. .............................................. .............................................. .............................................. .............................................. .............................................. 222.6 247.0 267.5 292.5 322.0 354.2 372.3 394.1 424.5 459.2 6.1 7.0 7.1 7.5 7.3 7.8 8.3 8.0 7.7 7.8 278.7 276.9 289.7 340.0 385.4 383.6 389.4 403.0 396.5 r 377.5 285.1 293.7 332.5 384.4 414.6 404.1 356.7 276.2 246.2 248.7 322.3 358.0 373.1 354.7 357.0 385.8 455.5 522.8 602.3 751.6 111.1 139.6 187.7 210.5 212.5 204.7 255.9 313.3 379.9 516.2 893.7 923.2 1,044.4 1,186.7 1,219.1 1,150.0 1,135.1 1,272.3 1,400.2 1,605.0 1,151.4 1,173.4 1,065.7 868.2 782.1 816.5 931.7 947.5 969.3 r 952.0 541.5 482.1 417.6 354.5 334.5 364.5 421.1 493.2 576.1 r 630.2 169.1 151.5 131.1 141.6 172.6 196.4 198.7 211.3 252.8 297.7 109.4 103.3 92.3 79.5 72.7 86.1 93.7 113.9 149.2 153.6 1998: Feb .............................................. Mar .............................................. Apr ............................................... May .............................................. June ............................................. July .............................................. Aug .............................................. Sept ............................................. Oct ............................................... Nov .............................................. Dec .............................................. 430.0 432.1 434.2 436.4 439.2 442.3 444.8 449.6 453.3 456.4 459.2 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.8 8.0 8.5 8.5 8.3 8.3 7.9 7.8 392.3 391.0 389.2 387.8 384.7 379.3 374.8 374.4 374.7 r 377.0 r 377.5 246.1 249.8 250.9 246.2 245.9 245.3 244.0 242.4 244.2 247.6 248.7 626.3 637.3 646.3 658.4 669.7 672.5 687.2 708.4 725.5 737.9 751.6 391.3 399.8 414.4 426.9 437.7 441.9 454.5 467.8 486.7 503.8 516.2 1,428.5 1,439.4 1,459.3 1,472.2 1,485.9 1,505.8 1,522.5 1,543.7 1,563.1 1,582.6 1,605.0 970.1 968.9 967.6 966.0 965.2 r 962.4 r 959.7 r 958.7 r 957.9 r 955.8 r 952.0 592.4 606.7 607.4 612.6 620.7 613.6 620.2 621.3 r 621.5 r 625.5 r 630.2 255.1 269.3 270.3 271.7 270.8 273.4 279.7 283.4 283.5 289.5 297.7 145.4 141.8 141.9 145.4 146.3 149.2 153.5 154.4 156.0 156.2 153.6 1999: Jan r ............................................. Feb .............................................. 462.7 467.6 7.8 7.7 371.1 371.7 249.2 244.9 766.1 781.2 515.0 529.9 1,622.4 1,632.4 946.6 940.9 637.0 630.5 291.5 308.2 149.1 153.7 1 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE [Averages of daily figures 1; millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements Borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal Reserve (NSA) Reserves of depository institutions Period Total 1989: 1990: 1991: 1992: 1993: 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Nonborrowed Nonborrowed plus extended credit Required Monetary base Total Seasonal Extended credit ............................................................................. ............................................................................. ............................................................................. ............................................................................. ............................................................................. ............................................................................. ............................................................................. ............................................................................ ............................................................................. ............................................................................. 40,501 41,789 45,535 54,358 60,524 59,406 56,399 50,083 46,669 44,905 40,236 41,464 45,343 54,234 60,442 59,197 56,141 49,928 46,345 44,788 40,256 41,486 45,344 54,235 60,442 59,197 56,141 49,928 46,345 44,788 39,581 40,125 44,556 53,202 59,461 58,238 55,121 48,660 44,986 43,321 267,692 293,312 317,587 350,676 386,325 417,976 434,032 451,603 479,385 513,037 265 326 192 124 82 209 257 155 324 117 84 76 38 18 31 100 40 68 79 15 20 23 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1998: Feb ............................................................................ Mar ............................................................................ Apr ............................................................................ May ............................................................................ June ........................................................................... July ............................................................................ Aug ............................................................................. Sept ............................................................................ Oct ............................................................................. Nov ............................................................................. Dec ............................................................................. 45,722 46,045 45,959 45,591 45,391 44,813 44,997 44,585 44,385 44,571 44,905 45,664 46,004 45,887 45,438 45,140 44,556 44,726 44,334 44,211 44,488 44,788 45,664 46,004 45,887 45,438 45,140 44,556 44,726 44,334 44,211 44,488 44,788 44,198 44,731 44,614 44,441 43,771 43,449 43,484 42,901 42,813 42,947 43,321 483,292 485,423 487,686 489,980 492,397 494,617 498,169 502,238 505,765 509,503 513,037 58 41 72 153 251 258 271 251 174 84 117 12 22 41 94 159 215 242 178 107 37 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1999: Jan r ........................................................................... Feb ............................................................................ 44,885 44,347 44,679 44,232 44,679 44,232 43,350 43,133 516,642 520,723 206 116 7 9 0 0 1 Data are prorated averages of biweekly (maintenance period) averages of daily figures. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK CREDIT AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS Total commercial bank loans and leases fell 0.2 percent in February; commercial and industrial loans were about unchanged. [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1] Securities in bank credit Period 1989: 1990: 1991: 1992: 1993: 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1998: Dec ..................... Dec ..................... Dec ..................... Dec ..................... Dec ..................... Dec ..................... Dec ..................... Dec ..................... Dec ..................... Dec r ................... Feb r ................... Mar r .................. Apr r .................. May r ................. June r ................ July r ................. Aug r .................. Sept r ................. Oct r ................... Nov r .................. Dec r .................. 1999: Jan r ................... Feb ................... Total bank credit 2,609.5 2,754.7 2,859.3 2,956.7 3,115.4 3,320.3 3,604.9 3,752.7 r 4,094.9 4,544.8 4,185.0 4,223.4 4,221.2 4,250.5 4,263.6 4,280.5 4,341.5 4,398.7 4,488.1 4,528.9 4,544.8 4,523.7 4,508.1 Total securities 584.4 634.1 745.9 841.4 915.2 940.8 986.1 971.2 1,081.9 1,231.9 1,112.9 1,129.8 1,109.9 1,126.1 1,121.6 1,130.4 1,156.5 1,177.1 1,217.9 1,227.6 1,231.9 1,217.8 1,207.4 Loans and leases in bank credit U.S. Total loans CommerGovernOther and cial and ment securities leases 2 industrial securities 400.2 456.0 566.0 664.2 730.1 721.9 702.9 697.3 747.3 793.1 769.6 780.8 764.9 772.0 756.9 760.6 771.1 767.3 774.5 790.7 793.1 794.7 793.6 184.3 178.1 179.9 177.2 185.2 218.9 283.2 273.9 334.6 438.9 343.2 349.0 345.0 354.1 364.7 369.8 385.4 409.7 443.4 436.9 438.9 423.0 413.8 2,025.1 2,120.6 2,113.3 2,115.3 2,200.1 2,379.6 2,618.7 2,781.6 r 3,013.0 3,312.9 3,072.1 3,093.6 3,111.4 3,124.4 3,142.0 3,150.1 3,185.0 3,221.6 3,270.2 3,301.3 3,312.9 3,305.9 3,300.7 1 Data are prorated averages of Wednesday values for domestically chartered commercial banks, branches and agencies of foreign banks, New York State investment companies (through September 1996), and Edge Act and agreement corporations. Data are adjusted for breaks caused by reclassifications of assets and liabilities. 28 638.8 641.2 619.8 596.2 586.4 646.0 718.0 783.4 r 854.6 945.2 873.3 875.5 873.8 878.6 887.2 898.8 907.4 919.7 939.0 947.5 945.2 942.3 942.1 Real estate Total 769.3 855.4 880.0 901.1 941.4 1,003.4 1,081.0 1,131.8 1,230.7 1,323.2 1,249.2 1,261.7 1,269.8 1,274.2 1,274.7 1,271.9 1,281.5 1,283.7 1,287.9 1,309.4 1,323.2 1,328.0 1,331.4 Revolving home equity 50.3 62.4 69.7 73.5 73.1 75.3 79.1 84.8 97.7 96.9 98.1 98.3 98.4 98.0 97.8 97.5 97.6 97.9 96.7 97.0 96.9 96.5 96.4 Consumer Security Other Other 718.9 793.0 810.3 827.6 868.3 928.1 1,001.9 1,047.0 1,133.0 1,226.3 1,151.0 1,163.4 1,171.4 1,176.3 1,176.9 1,174.4 1,183.9 1,185.8 1,191.2 1,212.3 1,226.3 1,231.6 1,235.1 378.4 383.9 366.9 359.2 391.1 451.9 495.3 515.9 506.5 501.8 501.6 501.8 505.4 506.1 503.1 496.0 494.5 497.4 496.8 498.9 501.8 504.0 504.3 41.8 45.6 55.0 65.2 89.6 78.8 85.7 77.9 97.6 151.2 119.3 118.7 117.9 123.1 130.2 131.9 137.7 142.9 158.9 152.5 151.2 147.3 137.7 196.8 194.5 191.7 193.6 191.6 199.4 238.7 272.5 r 323.6 391.5 328.8 336.0 344.5 342.3 346.9 351.4 363.9 378.0 387.5 393.0 391.5 384.3 385.2 2 Excludes Federal funds sold to, reverse repurchase agreements (RPs) with, and loans to commercial banks in the United States. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses External Funds raised in markets Period Total 1988 ................... 1989 ................... 1990 ................... 1991 ................... 1992 ................... 1993 ................... 1994 ................... 1995 r .................. 1996 r .................. 1997 r .................. 1998 p ................. 1996: I r ............. II r ........... III r .......... IV r .......... 1997: I r ............. II r ........... III r .......... IV r .......... 1998: I r ............. II r ........... III r .......... IV p .......... 854.0 747.1 596.2 492.9 602.5 702.7 791.6 994.7 999.9 1,009.4 1,063.8 1,043.5 924.0 972.0 1,060.1 1,111.7 901.3 1,033.6 990.7 1,291.1 908.1 1,006.1 1,050.4 Internal 1 410.3 399.7 412.7 425.8 441.2 484.8 550.0 603.9 630.9 667.1 695.8 619.4 623.7 630.6 649.8 646.1 666.6 684.3 671.4 690.5 686.9 693.7 712.4 Credit market instruments 443.7 347.4 183.5 67.1 161.3 217.9 241.6 390.8 369.0 342.3 368.0 424.1 300.3 341.4 410.3 465.6 234.7 349.3 319.3 600.6 221.2 312.4 338.0 Total Total net funds raised Net new equity issues Total 102.7 51.8 52.5 ¥33.3 74.1 r 72.7 r 102.5 173.2 106.5 143.5 80.2 75.0 175.2 97.6 78.2 101.7 114.1 159.8 198.4 181.9 228.2 66.2 ¥155.7 ¥129.5 ¥124.2 ¥63.0 18.3 27.0 21.3 ¥44.9 ¥58.3 ¥64.2 ¥114.4 ¥262.8 ¥73.6 .4 ¥127.6 ¥56.0 ¥90.4 ¥100.0 ¥124.0 ¥143.3 ¥139.2 ¥129.1 ¥308.4 ¥474.4 232.2 176.0 115.5 ¥51.6 47.1 51.4 147.4 231.5 170.7 257.9 342.9 148.6 174.8 225.2 134.2 192.1 214.1 283.8 341.7 321.1 357.3 374.6 318.7 Total 1 Profits before tax (book) less profit tax accruals and dividends plus consumption of fixed capital, foreign earnings retained abroad, and inventory valuation adjustment. 2 Includes tax liabilities, trade debt, pension fund liabilities, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. Loans and shortterm paper Securities and mortgages 139.2 83.5 47.6 65.3 56.9 76.4 56.5 114.4 104.5 125.4 187.1 97.4 105.0 84.6 131.0 100.6 124.7 161.9 114.3 206.3 222.7 130.9 188.6 93.1 92.4 67.9 ¥117.0 ¥9.9 ¥25.0 90.8 117.2 66.2 132.5 155.9 51.2 69.8 140.6 3.3 91.4 89.3 121.8 227.4 114.9 134.7 243.7 130.1 Other 2 340.9 295.5 131.0 100.4 87.3 r 145.3 r 139.2 217.7 262.5 198.7 287.9 349.1 125.2 243.7 332.1 363.9 120.6 189.6 120.9 418.7 ¥6.9 246.2 493.7 Capital expenditures 3 719.1 581.8 519.3 459.3 537.8 786.9 796.7 1,001.8 1,002.8 968.8 1,045.1 1,018.6 964.5 1,001.7 1,026.6 1,125.2 894.7 938.0 917.6 1,225.7 837.1 1,022.5 1,095.3 Discrepancy (sources less uses) Increase in financial assets 364.6 394.2 387.8 370.2 385.4 444.9 513.4 568.3 604.5 671.1 708.5 568.1 585.5 629.4 635.2 641.8 703.7 673.0 666.1 731.5 685.9 699.2 717.5 354.5 187.6 131.5 89.1 152.4 342.0 283.3 433.5 398.3 297.7 336.6 450.5 379.0 372.3 391.4 483.4 191.0 265.0 251.5 494.2 151.2 323.3 377.8 134.9 165.2 77.0 33.6 64.7 ¥84.2 ¥5.0 ¥7.1 ¥2.9 40.5 18.7 24.9 ¥40.5 ¥29.7 33.5 ¥13.5 6.6 95.7 73.2 65.5 71.0 ¥16.5 ¥44.9 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and access rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER CREDIT [Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Net change in consumer credit outstanding 1 Consumer credit outstanding (end of period) Period Total Dec 3 .................................. Dec .................................... Dec .................................... Dec .................................... Dec .................................... Dec .................................... Dec .................................... Dec .................................... Dec .................................... Dec r .................................. Jan .................................... Feb .................................... Mar ................................... Apr .................................... May ................................... June .................................. July r .................................. Aug r .................................. Sept r ................................. Oct r ................................... Nov r .................................. Dec r .................................. 1999: Jan r ................................... 1999: Feb p .................................. 1989: 1990: 1991: 1992: 1993: 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1998: 779.0 789.3 777.2 779.9 839.1 960.7 1,095.7 1,181.9 1,233.1 1,299.2 1,235.5 1,240.5 1,247.3 1,251.8 1,254.2 1,263.5 1,269.2 1,276.2 1,283.6 1,294.9 1,296.6 1,299.2 1,314.5 1,323.2 Automobile Other 2 Revolving 290.8 283.5 263.4 262.7 288.1 327.9 364.2 392.3 413.4 447.0 415.3 416.7 419.8 421.2 422.6 425.5 428.3 432.7 435.6 437.8 442.4 447.0 454.1 459.3 1 For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month. 2 Outstanding loans for mobile homes, education, boats, trailers, vacations, etc., plus noninstallment credit. 3 Data newly available in January 1989 result in breaks in many series between December 1988 and subsequent months. 211.2 238.6 263.7 278.2 310.0 365.6 443.2 499.5 531.1 560.5 533.0 535.3 539.4 541.8 541.2 545.3 543.4 548.3 551.7 557.6 556.5 560.5 566.7 569.0 4 Because 277.0 267.2 250.1 239.1 241.1 267.2 288.3 290.1 288.6 291.7 287.1 288.4 288.2 288.7 290.4 292.7 297.5 295.3 296.3 299.5 297.7 291.7 293.7 294.9 Total ( 4) 10.3 ¥12.1 2.7 59.2 121.6 135.0 86.2 51.2 66.1 2.4 5.0 6.8 4.5 2.4 9.3 5.7 7.0 7.4 11.3 1.7 2.6 15.3 8.7 Automobile ( 4) ¥7.3 ¥20.1 ¥.7 25.4 39.8 36.3 28.1 21.1 33.6 1.9 1.4 3.1 1.4 1.4 2.9 2.8 4.4 2.9 2.2 4.6 4.6 7.1 5.2 Revolving ( 4) 27.4 25.1 14.5 31.8 55.6 77.6 56.3 31.6 29.4 1.9 2.3 4.1 2.4 ¥.6 4.1 ¥1.9 4.9 3.4 5.9 ¥1.1 4.0 6.2 2.3 Other 2 (4) ¥9.8 ¥17.1 ¥11.0 2.0 26.1 21.1 1.8 ¥1.5 3.1 ¥1.5 1.3 ¥.2 .5 1.7 2.3 4.8 ¥2.2 1.0 3.2 ¥1.8 ¥6.0 2.0 1.2 of breaks in series, net change not available. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates rose in March. [Percent per annum] U.S. Treasury security yields Constant Period 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1998: ................... ................... ................... ................... ................... ................... ................... ................... ................... ................... Mar ......... Apr .......... May ......... June ........ July ......... Aug ......... Sept ......... Oct .......... Nov .......... Dec ......... 1999: Jan ......... Feb .......... Mar ......... Week ended: 1999: Mar 6 .... 13 .... 20 .... 27 .... Apr 3 .... 1 Bank-discount 3-month bills (new issues) 1 3-year maturities 2 10-year 30-year Highgrade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor’s) 3 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody’s) Prime commercial paper, 6 months 1 30 Prime rate charged by banks 4 Federal funds rate 5 Newhome mortgage yields (FHFB) 6 8.12 7.51 5.42 3.45 3.02 4.29 5.51 5.02 5.07 4.81 5.03 5.00 5.03 4.99 4.96 4.94 4.74 4.08 4.44 4.42 4.34 4.45 4.48 8.55 8.26 6.82 5.30 4.44 6.27 6.25 5.99 6.10 5.14 5.57 5.58 5.61 5.52 5.47 5.24 4.62 4.18 4.57 4.48 4.61 4.90 5.11 8.49 8.55 7.86 7.01 5.87 7.09 6.57 6.44 6.35 5.26 5.65 5.64 5.65 5.50 5.46 5.34 4.81 4.53 4.83 4.65 4.72 5.00 5.23 8.45 8.61 8.14 7.67 6.59 7.37 6.88 6.71 6.61 5.58 5.95 5.92 5.93 5.70 5.68 5.54 5.20 5.01 5.25 5.06 5.16 5.37 5.58 7.24 7.25 6.89 6.41 5.63 6.19 5.95 5.75 5.55 5.12 5.30 5.33 5.21 5.13 5.18 5.13 4.98 4.90 5.06 5.00 5.04 5.03 5.10 9.26 9.32 8.77 8.14 7.22 7.96 7.59 7.37 7.26 6.53 6.71 6.69 6.69 6.53 6.55 6.52 6.40 6.37 6.41 6.22 6.24 6.40 6.62 8.80 7.95 5.85 3.80 3.30 4.93 5.93 5.42 5.62 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 6.93 6.98 5.45 3.25 3.00 3.60 5.21 5.02 5.00 4.92 5.00–5.00 5.00–5.00 5.00–5.00 5.00–5.00 5.00–5.00 5.00–5.00 5.00–5.00 5.00–4.75 4.75–4.50 4.50–4.50 4.50–4.50 4.50–4.50 4.50–4.50 10.87 10.01 8.46 6.25 6.00 7.15 8.83 8.27 8.44 8.35 8.50–8.50 8.50–8.50 8.50–8.50 8.50–8.50 8.50–8.50 8.50–8.50 8.50–8.25 8.25–8.00 8.00–7.75 7.75–7.75 7.75–7.75 7.75–7.75 7.75–7.75 9.21 8.10 5.69 3.52 3.02 4.21 5.83 5.30 5.46 5.35 5.49 5.45 5.49 5.56 5.54 5.55 5.51 5.07 4.83 4.68 4.63 4.76 4.81 10.13 10.05 9.32 8.24 7.20 7.49 7.87 7.80 7.71 7.07 7.17 7.19 7.18 7.16 7.13 7.09 6.98 6.85 6.80 6.94 6.96 6.92 .............. 4.57 4.51 4.47 4.38 4.38 5.25 5.10 5.03 5.07 5.06 5.38 5.21 5.14 5.20 5.24 5.65 5.56 5.50 5.58 5.63 5.08 5.12 5.08 5.09 5.11 6.69 6.60 6.55 6.62 6.70 * * * * * 4.50–4.50 4.50–4.50 4.50–4.50 4.50–4.50 4.50–4.50 7.75–7.75 7.75–7.75 7.75–7.75 7.75–7.75 7.75–7.75 4.85 4.80 4.79 4.79 4.84 .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. basis. on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 5 Daily effective rate; average of the rates on a given day weighted by the volume of transactions at these rates. 2 Yields Discount rate (N.Y. F.R. Bank) 4 6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. *Series no longer published by Federal Reserve (FR). See FR release H. 15 Selected Interest Rates, May 12, 1997. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Housing Finance Board, Moody’s Investors Service, and Standard & Poor’s. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices rose in March. Common stock prices 1 Period Composite 1989 ............................................. 1990 ............................................. 1991 ............................................. 1992 ............................................. 1993 ............................................. 1994 ............................................. 1995 ............................................. 1996 ............................................. 1997 ............................................. 1998 ............................................. 1998: Mar .................................. Apr ................................... May ................................... June .................................. July ................................... Aug ................................... Sept ................................... Oct .................................... Nov ................................... Dec ................................... 1999: Jan .................................... Feb .................................... Mar ................................... Week ended: 1999: Mar 6 .............................. 13 .............................. 20 .............................. 27 .............................. Apr 3 .............................. 1 Average Industrial Transportation 3 Dec. Utility 3 Finance Dow-Jones industrial average 4 Standard & Poor’s composite index (1941– 43=10) 5 Dividendprice ratio Earningsprice ratio 180.02 183.46 206.33 229.01 249.58 254.12 291.15 358.17 456.54 550.26 560.70 578.05 574.46 569.76 586.39 539.16 506.56 511.49 564.26 576.05 595.43 588.70 603.69 216.23 225.78 258.14 284.62 299.99 315.25 367.34 453.98 574.52 681.57 693.13 711.89 712.39 704.14 718.54 665.66 629.51 636.62 704.46 717.00 741.43 736.20 751.93 175.28 158.62 173.99 201.09 242.49 247.29 269.41 327.33 414.60 468.69 508.06 523.73 505.02 492.98 503.89 441.36 408.75 396.61 442.95 456.70 479.72 477.47 491.25 174.87 181.20 185.32 198.91 228.90 209.06 220.30 249.77 283.82 378.12 367.48 378.92 372.62 376.51 388.78 372.48 372.33 390.17 412.59 431.14 449.50 436.49 436.23 151.88 133.26 150.82 179.26 216.42 209.73 238.45 303.89 424.48 516.35 539.47 563.07 551.28 548.57 579.67 511.22 454.28 448.12 501.45 510.31 523.38 514.75 544.08 2,508.91 2,678.94 2,929.33 3,284.29 3,522.06 3,793.77 4,493.76 5,742.89 7,441.15 8,625.52 8,709.47 9,037.44 9,080.07 8,872.96 9,097.14 8,478.52 7,909.79 8,164.47 9,005.75 9,018.68 9,345.86 9,322.94 9,753.63 322.84 334.59 376.18 415.74 451.41 460.42 541.72 670.50 873.43 1,085.50 1,076.83 1,112.20 1,108.42 1,108.39 1,156.58 1,074.62 1,020.64 1,032.47 1,144.43 1,190.05 1,248.77 1,246.58 1,281.66 3.45 3.61 3.24 2.99 2.78 2.82 2.56 2.19 1.77 1.49 1.48 1.43 1.45 1.45 1.39 1.48 1.59 1.59 1.43 1.37 1.30 1.32 1.30 7.42 6.47 4.79 4.22 4.46 5.83 6.09 5.24 4.57 3.46 3.59 .................. .................. 3.44 .................. .................. 3.75 .................. .................. 3.07 .................. .................. .................. 588.96 607.34 613.65 601.95 607.60 731.31 754.75 764.36 751.23 760.45 478.05 487.25 501.59 489.78 504.66 431.18 441.36 442.42 433.27 432.17 532.83 550.78 553.51 539.82 542.06 9,420.35 9,793.60 9,933.96 9,777.56 9,884.68 1,242.29 1,288.34 1,305.46 1,280.11 1,297.75 1.34 1.28 1.28 1.30 1.29 .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. of daily closing prices. all the stocks (more than 3,000) listed on the NYSE. 31, 1965=100. Effective April 27, 1993 the NYSE doubled the value of the utility index to facilitate trading of options and futures on the index. All indexes shown here reflect the doubling. 4 Includes 30 stocks. 2 Includes Common stock yields (percent) 6 New York Stock Exchange indexes (Dec. 31, 1965=50, except as noted) 2 5 Includes 500 stocks. & Poor’s series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor’s. 6 Standard 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first 5 months of fiscal 1999, there was a deficit of $27.5 billion, compared with a deficit of $56.0 billion a year earlier. [Billions of dollars] Total Fiscal year or period 1982 .................................. 1983 .................................. 1984 .................................. 1985 .................................. 1986 .................................. 1987 .................................. 1988 .................................. 1989 .................................. 1990 .................................. 1991 .................................. 1992 .................................. 1993 .................................. 1994 .................................. 1995 .................................. 1996 .................................. 1997 .................................. 1998 .................................. 1999 (estimates) ............... Cumulative total, first 5 months: 1 Fiscal year 1998 ....... Fiscal year 1999 ....... Receipts Outlays 617.8 600.6 666.5 734.1 769.2 854.4 909.3 991.2 1,032.0 1,055.0 1,091.3 1,154.4 1,258.6 1,351.8 1,453.1 1,579.3 1,721.8 1,806.3 745.8 808.4 851.9 946.4 990.5 1,004.1 1,064.5 1,143.7 1,253.2 1,324.4 1,381.7 1,409.4 1,461.7 1,515.7 1,560.5 1,601.2 1,652.6 1,727.1 646.9 683.7 703.0 711.3 On-budget Surplus or deficit (¥) Federal debt (end of period) Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (¥) ¥128.0 ¥207.8 ¥185.4 ¥212.3 ¥221.2 ¥149.8 ¥155.2 ¥152.5 ¥221.2 ¥269.4 ¥290.4 ¥255.0 ¥203.1 ¥163.9 ¥107.5 ¥21.9 69.2 79.3 474.3 453.2 500.4 547.9 569.0 641.0 667.8 727.5 750.3 761.2 788.9 842.5 923.6 1,000.8 1,085.6 1,187.3 1,306.0 1,362.3 594.4 661.3 686.1 769.6 807.0 810.3 861.8 932.8 1,028.1 1,082.7 1,129.3 1,142.8 1,182.4 1,227.1 1,259.6 1,290.6 1,335.9 1,404.0 ¥120.1 ¥208.0 ¥185.7 ¥221.7 ¥238.0 ¥169.3 ¥194.0 ¥205.2 ¥277.8 ¥321.6 ¥340.5 ¥300.4 ¥258.8 ¥226.3 ¥174.0 ¥103.3 ¥29.9 ¥41.7 143.5 147.3 166.1 186.2 200.2 213.4 241.5 263.7 281.7 293.9 302.4 311.9 335.0 351.1 367.5 392.0 415.8 444.0 151.4 147.1 165.8 176.8 183.5 193.8 202.7 210.9 225.1 241.7 252.3 266.6 279.4 288.7 300.9 310.6 316.6 323.1 ¥7.9 .2 .3 9.4 16.7 19.6 38.8 52.8 56.6 52.2 50.1 45.3 55.7 62.4 66.6 81.4 99.2 121.0 1,137.3 1,371.7 1,564.7 1,817.5 2,120.6 2,346.1 2,601.3 2,868.0 3,206.6 3,598.5 4,002.1 4,351.4 4,643.7 4,921.0 5,181.9 5,369.7 5,478.7 5,614.9 919.8 1,131.6 1,300.5 1,499.9 1,736.7 1,888.7 2,050.8 2,189.9 2,410.7 2,688.1 2,998.8 3,247.5 3,432.1 3,603.4 3,733.0 3,771.1 3,719.9 3,669.7 ¥56.0 ¥27.5 484.5 510.2 580.1 586.7 ¥95.5 ¥76.4 162.4 173.5 122.9 124.6 39.5 48.9 5,474.3 5,574.7 3,810.5 3,722.6 1 Data from current issue Monthly Treasury Statement. NOTE.—Data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2000, issued February 1, 1999. 32 Off-budget Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (¥) Gross Federal Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. Held by the public FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 5 months of fiscal 1999, receipts were $36.8 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $8.3 billion higher. [Billions of dollars] On-budget and off-budget receipts Fiscal year or period Total Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes Social insurance and retirement receipts On-budget and off-budget outlays National defense Other Total Total 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 ...................................................... ...................................................... ...................................................... ...................................................... ...................................................... ...................................................... ...................................................... ...................................................... 617.8 600.6 666.5 734.1 769.2 854.4 909.3 991.2 297.7 288.9 298.4 334.5 349.0 392.6 401.2 445.7 49.2 37.0 56.9 61.3 63.1 83.9 94.5 103.3 201.5 209.0 239.4 265.2 283.9 303.3 334.3 359.4 69.3 745.8 65.6 808.4 71.8 851.9 73.1 946.4 73.2 990.5 74.6 1,004.1 79.3 1,064.5 82.8 1,143.7 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 ...................................................... ...................................................... ...................................................... ...................................................... ...................................................... ...................................................... ...................................................... ...................................................... ...................................................... (estimates) ................................... 1,032.0 1,055.0 1,091.3 1,154.4 1,258.6 1,351.8 1,453.1 1,579.3 1,721.8 1,806.3 466.9 467.8 476.0 509.7 543.1 590.2 656.4 737.5 828.6 868.9 93.5 98.1 100.3 117.5 140.4 157.0 171.8 182.3 188.7 182.2 380.0 396.0 413.7 428.3 461.5 484.5 509.4 539.4 571.8 608.8 91.5 93.1 101.4 98.9 113.7 120.1 115.4 120.2 132.7 146.4 Cumulative total, first 5 months: 1 Fiscal year 1998 ............................ Fiscal year 1999 ............................ 646.9 683.7 314.3 330.2 56.4 53.9 222.9 237.4 53.2 62.3 1 Data from current issue Monthly Treasury Statement NOTE.—Data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2000, issued February 1, 1999. InterDepart- nationment of al Defense, affairs military Health Medicare Income Social security security Net interest Other 185.3 209.9 227.4 252.7 273.4 282.0 290.4 303.6 180.7 204.4 220.9 245.2 265.5 274.0 281.9 294.9 12.3 11.8 15.9 16.2 14.2 11.6 10.5 9.6 27.4 28.6 30.4 33.5 35.9 40.0 44.5 48.4 46.6 52.6 57.5 65.8 70.2 75.1 78.9 85.0 107.7 122.6 112.7 128.2 119.8 123.3 129.4 136.1 156.0 170.7 178.2 188.6 198.8 207.4 219.3 232.5 85.0 89.8 111.1 129.5 136.0 138.7 151.8 169.3 125.4 122.2 118.6 131.8 142.2 126.1 139.7 159.3 1,253.2 1,324.4 1,381.7 1,409.4 1,461.7 1,515.7 1,560.5 1,601.2 1,652.6 1,727.1 299.3 273.3 298.4 291.1 281.6 272.1 265.7 270.5 268.5 276.7 289.8 262.4 286.9 278.6 268.6 259.4 253.2 258.3 256.1 263.6 13.8 15.9 16.1 17.2 17.1 16.4 13.5 15.2 13.1 15.5 57.7 71.2 89.5 99.4 107.1 115.4 119.4 123.8 131.4 143.1 98.1 104.5 119.0 130.6 144.7 159.9 174.2 190.0 192.8 205.0 147.1 170.3 197.0 207.3 214.1 220.5 226.0 230.9 233.2 243.1 248.6 269.0 287.6 304.6 319.6 335.8 349.7 365.3 379.2 392.6 184.2 194.5 199.4 198.8 203.0 232.2 241.1 244.0 243.4 227.2 204.3 225.7 174.7 160.4 174.5 163.4 170.9 161.5 190.9 223.8 703.0 711.3 113.4 111.3 107.1 104.7 7.3 8.5 53.8 56.9 82.0 76.0 103.3 103.9 154.6 159.9 103.3 96.8 85.3 98.0 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the fourth quarter of 1998, according to revised estimates, Federal receipts rose $11.6 billion (annual rate) and Federal current expenditures rose $37.9 billion. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Government receipts Period Total Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Federal Government current expenditures Contributions for social insurance Total Consumption expenditures Transfer payments Grantsin-aid to Net State interest and paid local governments Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Current surplus or deficit (¥), national income and product accounts Calendar year: 1991 .................................. 1992 .................................. 1993 ................................. 1994 ................................. 1995 ................................. 1996 ................................. 1997 ................................. 1998 r ................................ 1,149.0 1,198.5 1,275.1 1,374.8 1,460.3 1,584.7 1,719.9 1,844.2 476.9 490.8 522.6 562.3 606.1 687.0 769.1 858.0 109.8 118.6 138.3 156.7 179.3 193.0 210.0 204.9 79.7 81.9 86.9 98.7 92.5 94.5 93.8 95.9 482.6 507.1 527.3 557.1 582.4 610.2 647.0 685.4 1,345.0 1,479.4 1,525.7 1,561.4 1,634.7 1,695.0 1,741.0 1,771.4 445.9 451.0 447.3 443.2 442.8 450.9 460.4 461.0 522.2 625.1 659.9 683.0 720.3 764.2 791.9 816.6 153.4 172.2 185.8 199.2 212.0 218.9 225.0 231.1 192.7 195.8 192.7 200.0 224.8 228.4 231.2 226.1 30.8 35.1 40.1 35.9 34.8 32.7 32.5 36.6 ¥0.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 ¥196.0 ¥280.9 ¥250.7 ¥186.7 ¥174.4 ¥110.3 ¥21.1 72.8 1995: I ................................ II .............................. III ............................. IV ............................. 1,426.2 1,459.3 1,469.1 1,486.8 582.9 609.4 608.2 623.9 172.5 176.6 186.2 182.1 96.0 94.6 89.2 90.3 574.7 578.7 585.5 590.5 1,615.8 1,637.1 1,646.0 1,639.8 443.0 444.7 447.2 436.5 707.8 717.1 724.8 731.5 212.4 216.4 211.0 208.1 218.3 224.3 227.8 228.7 34.4 34.6 35.2 35.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 ¥189.6 ¥177.9 ¥176.9 ¥153.0 1996: I ................................ II .............................. III ............................. IV ............................. 1,529.9 1,581.7 1,593.7 1,633.5 652.6 691.4 693.8 710.0 191.2 195.2 194.3 191.4 89.9 88.5 90.5 109.2 596.2 606.7 615.0 622.9 1,680.0 1,694.4 1,693.8 1,711.9 445.7 453.1 452.9 451.8 757.8 757.9 762.5 778.6 214.3 223.8 219.0 218.4 227.7 226.1 228.6 231.1 34.4 33.5 30.8 32.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 ¥150.1 ¥112.6 ¥100.1 ¥78.3 1997: I ................................ II .............................. III ............................. IV ............................. 1,671.1 1,703.6 1,739.6 1,765.5 741.7 759.1 776.9 798.6 203.9 206.5 217.0 212.8 90.7 95.5 95.1 93.8 634.8 642.4 650.6 660.3 1,722.3 1,738.4 1,739.9 1,763.4 456.8 464.8 460.0 460.1 783.4 787.1 791.2 805.9 220.7 223.2 224.4 231.8 229.4 231.6 231.9 231.8 32.0 31.6 32.5 33.7 .0 .0 .0 .0 ¥51.2 ¥34.8 ¥.3 2.2 1998: I ................................ II ............................... III ............................. IV r ............................ 1,809.1 1,838.3 1,858.8 1,870.4 836.5 855.7 863.8 875.9 204.8 206.2 207.5 201.0 93.9 95.2 98.3 96.0 673.9 681.2 689.2 697.5 1,750.3 1,763.9 1,766.7 1,804.6 450.9 464.0 458.7 470.6 808.5 811.1 817.0 829.8 228.7 226.9 231.4 237.4 228.8 228.3 225.7 221.4 33.4 33.5 34.0 45.4 .0 .0 .0 .0 58.8 74.4 92.0 65.8 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Industrial production (1992=100; seasonally adjusted) Period United States 1989 .......................................... 1990 .......................................... 1991 .......................................... 1992 .......................................... 1993 .......................................... 1994 .......................................... 1995 .......................................... 1996 .......................................... 1997 .......................................... 1998 p ........................................ 1997: Dec ................................ 1998: Jan ................................ Feb ................................ Mar ................................ Apr ................................ May ............................... June .............................. July ............................... Aug ................................ Sept ............................... Oct ................................. Nov ................................ Dec ................................ 1999: Jan ................................ Feb p .............................. 1 Data Canada Japan France Germany Italy Consumer prices (1982–84=100; NSA) United Kingdom United States 1 99.1 106.8 99.9 100.9 95.0 103.0 103.4 98.9 103.2 104.2 102.4 100.0 102.2 103.1 97.0 98.9 106.1 101.2 102.4 101.3 99.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 103.5 104.5 95.8 96.2 92.4 97.9 102.2 109.1 111.3 97.0 100.0 95.7 104.0 107.7 114.4 116.5 100.2 102.0 96.8 110.3 109.5 119.5 118.0 102.5 102.3 97.2 107.2 110.7 126.8 124.2 106.1 106.1 100.5 110.1 111.6 131.4 127.1 99.3 111.1 105.2 111.0 112.3 130.3 126.5 104.1 109.8 103.1 111.8 111.3 130.3 r 124.0 106.4 108.9 104.3 112.8 r 111.3 130.2 r 126.9 102.6 109.7 104.3 111.7 r 111.1 130.7 r 128.4 100.3 111.2 105.7 110.6 r 111.9 r 131.3 127.2 98.9 110.6 104.5 110.4 r 113.3 131.9 r 126.8 97.2 111.4 105.6 113.2 r 112.0 130.6 r 126.8 98.8 111.7 104.5 110.7 r 113.5 130.5 r 124.8 97.8 111.5 108.3 111.7 r 113.4 r 132.4 127.6 96.7 111.5 107.6 109.9 113.1 131.9 127.5 99.8 111.4 104.5 111.8 112.3 132.4 r 127.4 98.6 112.1 105.7 113.2 112.3 r 132.2 128.4 96.6 112.2 103.4 111.6 112.3 r 132.4 r 129.4 r 97.6 r 110.8 103.6 104.7 111.4 r 132.4 129.8 98.6 111.4 ............ .............. 110.8 132.6 .............. ............ ............ ............ .............. .............. relate to all urban consumers. 124.0 130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 161.3 161.6 161.9 162.2 162.5 162.8 163.0 163.2 163.4 163.6 164.0 164.0 163.9 164.3 164.5 Canada Japan 129.3 135.5 143.1 145.3 147.9 148.2 151.4 153.8 156.3 157.8 156.3 157.2 157.3 157.5 157.3 157.9 158.1 158.1 158.1 157.8 158.4 158.4 157.9 158.2 158.5 Germany France 108.1 111.4 115.0 116.9 118.4 119.3 119.1 119.3 121.3 122.1 121.8 121.6 121.5 122.0 122.2 122.6 122.1 121.4 121.3 122.2 123.1 123.0 122.5 121.9 121.4 128.7 133.0 137.2 140.5 143.5 145.8 148.4 151.4 153.2 154.3 153.9 153.3 153.9 154.1 154.5 154.7 154.8 154.1 154.4 154.4 154.3 154.3 154.4 154.0 154.4 109.2 112.2 r 116.2 122.1 127.6 131.1 r 133.3 r 135.2 137.8 r 139.1 r 138.5 r 138.5 138.8 r 138.7 r 138.8 r 139.2 r 139.3 r 139.7 r 139.5 r 139.2 r 138.9 r 138.9 139.1 138.8 139.1 Italy United Kingdom 150.4 159.6 169.8 178.8 186.4 193.7 204.1 212.0 r 215.9 r 219.8 r 217.6 r 218.2 218.6 r 219.2 r 219.4 r 219.8 r 220.0 r 220.0 r 220.2 r 220.4 r 220.8 r 221.0 r 221.0 221.2 221.6 135.3 148.2 156.9 162.7 165.3 169.4 175.1 179.4 185.0 191.4 188.0 187.4 188.3 188.9 191.0 192.1 192.0 191.5 192.3 193.2 193.3 193.2 193.2 192.0 192.3 Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and International Trade Administration, Office of Trade and Economic Analysis). U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES [Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Goods: Exports (f.a.s. value) Goods: Imports (customs value) Census basis (by end-use category) 1 Services (BOP basis) Balance of trade (exports minus imports) Census basis (by end-use category) BOP basis Period 1989 ................... 1990 ................... 1991 ................... 1992 ................... 1993 ................... 1994 ................... 1995 ................... 1996 ................... 1997 ................... 1998 r ................. 1998: Jan ......... Feb ......... Mar ........ Apr ......... May ........ June ....... July ........ Aug ......... Sept ........ Oct ......... Nov ......... Dec r ...... 1999: Jan p ....... 1 Includes 2 Total BOP basis 362.1 389.3 416.9 440.4 456.8 502.4 575.8 612.0 679.3 670.6 57.8 56.3 57.1 55.2 54.6 54.7 53.7 53.8 55.9 58.2 57.1 56.1 54.8 Auto- ConIndusmo- sumer Foods, trial Capital tive goods Total, feeds, supgoods vehi- (nonCensus and plies except cles, food) basis 2 bevand auto- parts except erages mate- motive and autorials enmogines tive 363.8 393.6 421.7 448.2 465.1 512.6 584.7 625.1 689.2 682.5 58.4 57.1 58.0 55.9 55.4 55.6 54.7 55.1 56.9 59.4 58.7 57.3 55.8 37.2 35.1 35.7 40.3 40.6 42.0 50.5 55.5 51.5 46.3 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.3 4.0 3.9 4.1 3.7 99.3 104.4 109.7 109.1 111.8 121.4 146.2 147.7 158.2 147.9 13.0 12.6 12.9 12.5 12.6 12.0 11.9 12.0 11.9 12.5 12.4 11.6 11.1 138.8 152.7 166.7 175.9 181.7 205.0 233.0 252.9 294.5 299.2 25.3 24.7 24.8 23.7 23.7 24.3 24.7 23.7 26.0 26.7 25.8 25.9 25.7 34.8 37.4 40.0 47.0 52.4 57.8 61.8 65.0 74.0 72.7 6.5 6.4 6.6 6.5 6.0 5.6 4.8 5.6 6.0 6.0 6.4 6.2 5.9 undocumented exports to Canada through 1988. includes ‘‘other’’ exports or imports, not shown separately. 36.4 43.3 45.9 51.4 54.7 60.0 64.4 70.1 77.4 79.4 6.6 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.8 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.5 BOP basis 477.4 498.3 491.0 536.5 589.4 668.6 749.6 803.3 877.3 918.8 75.0 74.5 77.7 76.7 77.3 75.3 74.9 76.6 76.8 78.5 78.8 76.6 78.3 IndusAutoFoods, trial Capital motive Total, feeds, supgoods vehiCensus and plies except cles, basis 2 bevand auto- parts erages mate- motive and enrials gines 473.2 495.3 488.5 532.7 580.7 663.3 743.5 795.3 870.7 913.6 74.4 74.3 77.2 76.4 77.0 75.0 74.5 75.9 76.3 78.0 78.3 76.4 78.1 25.1 26.6 26.5 27.6 27.9 31.0 33.2 35.7 39.7 41.2 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.6 132.3 143.2 131.6 138.6 145.6 162.1 181.8 204.5 213.8 200.3 17.3 16.8 16.7 17.3 17.4 16.6 16.6 16.8 16.5 16.8 16.3 15.2 15.3 113.3 116.4 120.7 134.3 152.4 184.4 221.4 229.1 254.2 270.3 21.9 22.2 23.1 22.3 23.1 22.2 22.3 22.2 22.2 23.0 23.4 22.4 23.1 86.1 87.3 85.7 91.8 102.4 118.3 123.8 128.9 140.8 150.6 11.9 12.2 13.0 12.2 12.6 11.8 10.7 12.3 13.0 13.4 13.8 13.8 14.0 Consumer goods (nonfood) except automotive 102.9 105.7 108.0 122.7 134.0 146.3 159.9 171.0 192.9 215.5 17.2 16.9 18.2 18.3 17.9 18.2 18.3 18.0 18.0 18.2 18.2 18.1 18.6 Exports Imports Goods, Census basis Goods 127.2 147.9 164.3 177.0 186.4 201.4 219.8 238.8 258.3 260.4 r 21.7 r 21.4 21.8 22.4 21.9 r 21.4 21.2 r 21.2 21.5 r 22.2 21.8 21.7 21.9 104.2 120.0 121.2 119.6 125.7 136.2 146.0 156.0 170.5 181.5 14.6 14.9 14.8 r 15.0 15.0 15.1 r 15.2 15.1 r 15.2 r 15.9 r 15.3 15.3 15.5 ¥109.4 ¥101.7 ¥66.7 ¥84.5 ¥115.6 ¥150.6 ¥158.8 ¥170.2 ¥181.5 ¥231.1 ¥16.0 ¥17.2 ¥19.2 ¥20.5 ¥21.6 ¥19.4 ¥19.8 ¥20.8 ¥19.4 ¥18.5 ¥19.6 ¥19.0 ¥22.3 ¥115.2 ¥109.0 ¥74.1 ¥96.1 ¥132.6 ¥166.2 ¥173.7 ¥191.3 ¥198.0 ¥248.2 ¥17.2 ¥18.2 ¥20.6 ¥21.4 ¥22.7 ¥20.6 ¥21.1 ¥22.8 ¥20.9 ¥20.3 ¥21.7 ¥20.5 ¥23.4 Services 23.0 27.9 43.1 57.4 60.7 65.3 73.8 82.8 87.7 78.9 7.2 6.5 7.0 7.3 6.9 6.3 r 6.0 6.1 r 6.3 r 6.3 r 6.5 6.4 6.4 Goods and services ¥92.2 ¥81.1 ¥30.9 ¥38.7 ¥71.9 ¥100.9 ¥99.9 ¥108.6 ¥110.2 ¥169.3 ¥10.0 ¥11.7 ¥13.6 ¥14.1 ¥15.8 ¥14.3 r ¥15.2 r ¥16.7 r ¥14.6 r ¥14.0 r ¥15.2 ¥14.1 ¥17.0 NOTE.—BOP refers to balance of payments on international transactions basis. BOP data shown here are consistent with figures shown on pp. 36 and 37. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis). 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the fourth quarter of 1998, the goods deficit fell to $62.3 billion, from $64.9 billion in the third quarter. The current account deficit fell to $63.8 billion in the fourth quarter, from $65.7 billion in the third quarter. (Data for 1998 revised.) [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted. Credits (+), debits (¥)] Goods 1 Imports Net balance Net military transactions 2 3 ¥477,365 ¥498,337 ¥490,981 ¥536,458 ¥589,441 ¥668,590 ¥749,574 ¥803,320 ¥877,279 ¥919,040 ¥193,467 ¥200,965 ¥202,806 ¥206,082 ¥213,222 ¥218,336 ¥221,598 ¥224,123 ¥227,223 ¥229,321 ¥228,313 ¥234,183 ¥115,245 ¥109,030 ¥74,068 ¥96,106 ¥132,609 ¥166,192 ¥173,729 ¥191,337 ¥197,954 ¥247,985 ¥42,612 ¥48,835 ¥51,553 ¥48,337 ¥49,723 ¥49,096 ¥49,296 ¥49,839 ¥56,033 ¥64,778 ¥64,899 ¥62,275 ¥6,749 ¥7,599 ¥5,274 ¥1,448 1,269 2,495 4,769 4,684 6,781 4,072 748 993 1,105 1,838 1,542 2,191 1,945 1,103 1,527 1,043 829 673 Period Exports 1989 .............. 1990 .............. 1991 .............. 1992 .............. 1993 .............. 1994 .............. 1995 .............. 1996 .............. 1997 .............. 1998 p ............. 1996: I ......... II ........ III ...... IV ....... 1997: I ......... II ........ III ...... IV ....... 1998: I r ........ II r ....... III r ..... IV p ..... 1 Adjusted 362,120 389,307 416,913 440,352 456,832 502,398 575,845 611,983 679,325 671,055 150,855 152,130 151,253 157,745 163,499 169,240 172,302 174,284 171,190 164,543 163,414 171,908 Services Net travel and transportation receipts 3,551 7,501 16,561 19,969 19,714 16,305 21,772 24,969 22,670 14,176 5,769 6,548 4,345 8,307 5,944 5,711 5,414 5,600 4,401 3,990 2,406 3,379 Investment income Other services, net 26,245 27,999 31,851 38,899 39,686 46,479 47,297 53,110 58,297 60,623 12,994 13,090 13,025 14,001 14,107 14,679 14,832 14,677 14,733 15,510 15,167 15,213 from Census data for differences in timing and coverage; excludes military. under U.S. military agency sales contracts (exports) minus direct defense expenditures (imports). 2 Transfers 36 Balance on goods and services ¥92,197 ¥81,129 ¥30,931 ¥38,685 ¥71,939 ¥100,913 ¥99,891 ¥108,574 ¥110,206 ¥169,114 ¥23,101 ¥28,204 ¥33,078 ¥24,191 ¥28,130 ¥26,515 ¥27,105 ¥28,459 ¥35,372 ¥44,235 ¥46,497 ¥43,010 3 Quarterly Receipts on U.S. assets abroad 153,659 163,324 141,408 125,003 126,702 157,742 203,844 213,196 241,787 242,615 51,997 51,801 53,058 56,340 57,581 61,271 62,551 60,384 62,546 61,925 58,480 59,663 Payments on foreign assets in U.S. Net Balance on goods, Unilateral services, transfers, and net 4 income ¥138,639 15,020 ¥77,177 ¥26,963 ¥139,149 24,174 ¥56,955 ¥34,669 ¥119,891 21,517 ¥9,414 5,032 ¥102,462 22,541 ¥16,144 ¥35,230 ¥102,754 23,948 ¥47,991 ¥38,142 ¥141,263 16,479 ¥84,434 ¥39,391 ¥184,569 19,275 ¥80,616 ¥34,638 ¥198,960 14,236 ¥94,338 ¥40,577 ¥247,105 ¥5,318 ¥115,524 ¥39,691 ¥265,094 ¥22,479 ¥191,593 ¥41,855 ¥46,638 5,359 ¥17,742 ¥10,473 ¥47,826 3,975 ¥24,229 ¥8,777 ¥51,327 1,731 ¥31,347 ¥9,043 ¥53,168 3,172 ¥21,019 ¥12,284 ¥57,567 14 ¥28,116 ¥8,874 ¥60,811 460 ¥26,055 ¥9,035 ¥64,095 ¥1,544 ¥28,649 ¥9,445 ¥64,631 ¥4,247 ¥32,706 ¥12,337 ¥64,764 ¥2,218 ¥37,590 ¥9,428 ¥65,271 ¥3,346 ¥47,581 ¥9,390 ¥67,645 ¥9,165 ¥55,662 ¥10,032 ¥67,417 ¥7,754 ¥50,764 ¥13,001 data are not seasonally adjusted. 4 Includes transfers of goods and services under U.S. military grant programs. See p. 37 for continuation of table. Balance on current account ¥104,139 ¥91,624 ¥4,383 ¥51,374 ¥86,133 ¥123,825 ¥115,254 ¥134,915 ¥155,215 ¥233,448 ¥28,215 ¥33,006 ¥40,390 ¥33,303 ¥36,990 ¥35,090 ¥38,094 ¥45,043 ¥47,018 ¥56,971 ¥65,694 ¥63,765 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, U.S. claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks decreased $22.5 billion in the fourth quarter, following an increase of $32.0 billion in the third quarter. U.S. liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, decreased $21.6 billion in the fourth quarter, following an increase of $77.0 billion in the third quarter. (Data for 1998 revised.) [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] U.S. assets abroad, net [increase/capital outflow (¥)] Period Total 1989 ........... 1990 ........... 1991 ........... 1992 ........... 1993 ........... 1994 ........... 1995 ........... 1996 ........... 1997 ........... 1998 p ......... 1996: I ...... II .... III ... IV ... 1997: I ...... II .... III ... IV ... 1998: I r .... II r ... III r IV p U.S. official reserve assets 3 5 ¥168,744 ¥25,293 ¥74,011 ¥2,158 ¥57,881 5,763 ¥68,774 3,901 ¥194,537 ¥1,379 ¥171,102 5,346 ¥327,453 ¥9,742 ¥368,801 6,668 ¥478,502 ¥1,010 ¥305,385 ¥6,784 ¥69,695 17 ¥60,623 ¥523 ¥83,101 7,489 ¥155,381 ¥315 ¥145,139 4,480 ¥86,606 ¥236 ¥123,317 ¥730 ¥123,441 ¥4,524 ¥46,025 ¥444 ¥110,164 ¥1,945 ¥60,395 ¥2,026 ¥88,798 ¥2,369 Other U.S. Government assets 3 1,259 2,307 2,911 ¥1,657 ¥342 ¥389 ¥589 ¥708 174 ¥836 ¥210 ¥377 163 ¥284 ¥22 ¥269 436 29 ¥388 ¥433 174 ¥189 Foreign assets in the U.S., net [increase/capital inflow (+)] U.S. private assets ¥144,710 ¥74,160 ¥66,555 ¥71,018 ¥192,817 ¥176,059 ¥317,122 ¥374,761 ¥477,666 ¥297,765 ¥69,502 ¥59,723 ¥90,753 ¥154,782 ¥149,597 ¥86,101 ¥123,023 ¥118,946 ¥45,193 ¥107,786 ¥58,543 ¥86,240 Total 224,390 140,992 109,641 168,776 279,671 304,460 465,449 563,357 733,441 542,482 90,534 109,122 149,361 214,339 181,735 149,773 181,438 220,491 95,637 164,967 98,742 183,136 5 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDRs), foreign currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the IMF. Foreign official assets 3 8,503 33,910 17,389 40,477 71,753 39,583 109,768 127,344 15,817 ¥22,112 51,833 13,601 23,432 38,478 26,949 ¥5,411 21,258 ¥26,979 11,324 ¥10,274 ¥46,347 23,185 Other foreign assets Statistical discrepancy Allocations of special Total (sum Of which: drawing of the items Seasonal rights with sign adjustment (SDRs) reversed) discrepancy 215,887 107,082 92,253 128,299 207,918 264,877 355,681 436,013 717,624 564,594 38,701 95,521 125,929 175,861 154,786 155,184 160,180 247,470 84,313 175,241 145,089 159,951 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ 48,494 24,643 ¥47,378 ¥48,628 999 ¥9,533 ¥22,742 ¥59,641 ¥99,724 ¥3,649 7,376 ¥15,493 ¥25,870 ¥25,655 394 ¥28,077 ¥20,027 ¥52,007 ¥2,594 2,168 27,347 ¥30,573 .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. 4,928 116 ¥8,779 3,734 5,812 685 ¥10,018 3,528 6,769 2,024 ¥10,195 ¥1,399 U.S. official reserve assets, net 5 (unadjusted, end of period) 74,609 83,316 77,721 71,323 73,442 74,335 85,832 75,089 69,954 81,761 84,212 83,455 75,509 75,089 67,222 67,813 67,148 69,954 69,353 71,161 75,676 81,761 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents Page TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Gross Domestic Product .......................................................................................................................................................................................... Real Gross Domestic Product .................................................................................................................................................................................. Implicit Price Deflators for Gross Domestic Product .............................................................................................................................................. Gross Domestic Product and Related Price Measures: Indexes and Percent Changes .............................................................................................. Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits ................................................................................................................................ National Income ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... Real Personal Consumption Expenditures ............................................................................................................................................................... Sources of Personal Income ...................................................................................................................................................................................... Disposition of Personal Income ............................................................................................................................................................................... Farm Income ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ Corporate Profits ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... Real Gross Private Domestic Investment ................................................................................................................................................................ Real Private Fixed Investment by Type .................................................................................................................................................................. Business Investment ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force ......................................................................................................................................................................................... Selected Unemployment Rates ................................................................................................................................................................................ Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs ...................................................................................................... Nonagricultural Employment .................................................................................................................................................................................. Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries ................................................................. Employment Cost Index—Private Industry ............................................................................................................................................................. Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector ...................................................................................................................................................... 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization ....................................................................................................................................................... Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures .............................................................................................................. New Construction .................................................................................................................................................................................................... New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates ............................................................................................................................................................... Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade ..................................................................................................................................... Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders ................................................................................................................................................. 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers ................................................................................................................................................................ Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods ...................................................................................................................................................... Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers ............................................................................................................................................. Prices Received and Paid by Farmers ...................................................................................................................................................................... 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock and Debt Measures ............................................................................................................................................................................. Components of Money Stock ................................................................................................................................................................................... Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base ................................................................................................................................................................... Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks .................................................................................................................................................................... Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business .................................................................................................................. Consumer Credit ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... Interest Rates and Bond Yields ............................................................................................................................................................................... Common Stock Prices and Yields ............................................................................................................................................................................ 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt ....................................................................................................................................................................... Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function .............................................................................................................................................. Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis ..................................................................................................................................................... 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries ............................................................................................................... U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services ...................................................................................................................................................... U.S. International Transactions ................................................................................................................................................................................ 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: p Preliminary. r Revised. c Corrected. … Not available (also, not applicable). NSA not seasonally adjusted. 38 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Price $3.00 (single copy) ($3.75 foreign). Subscription price: $33.00 per year; $41.25 for foreign mailing. U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1999 55–748
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