Full text of Economic Indicators : March 1991
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102d Congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators MARCH 1991 (Includes data available as of March 28, 1991) Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1991 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland, Chairman LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Vice Chairman SENATE LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico) ALBERT GORE, JR. (Tennessee) RICHARD H. BRYAN (Nevada) WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) STEVE SYMMS (Idaho) CONNIE MACK (Florida) ROBERT C. SMITH (New Hampshire) HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin) JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York) FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California) STEPHEN J. SOLARZ (New York) KWEISI MFUME (Maryland) RICHARD K. ARMEY (Texas) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine) HAMILTON FISH, JR. (New York) STEVEN QUICK, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS MICHAEL J. BOSKIN, Chairman JOHN B. TAYLOR, Member RICHARD L. SCHMALENSEE, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—SlST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts prepared by the Art Production Section, Design and Graphics Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.25 a single copy ($2.81 foreign), or by subscription at $24.00 per year ($30.00 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT In the fourth quarter of 1990, according to revised estimates, current-dollar gross national product (GNP) rose 0.9 percent (annual rate) or $12.7 billion. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) fell 1.6 percent and the implicit price deflator rose 2.8 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 5,600 - BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 5,600 r--^' 1 5,200 •X""~ 4,800 ^ - SEASOI- ALLY ADJUSTED ANN UAL RATES 5,200 - GNP IN CURREr4T DOLLARS 4,800 4,400 4,400 - - f ^ ^ 4,000 3,600 S S^ ^f .- — "•*" - .--•""'' "V"" \ —~ S**" Ih ^ i,** 4,000 3,600 GNP 1982 DOLLARS 3,200 3,200 — - 2,800 2,800 1 1 1 2,400 \ \ \ \ 1983 1982 \ 1 1 1 1 1984 1 1985 1 1 1986 1 1 1 1987 \ \ \ I 1988 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE I I 1 989 I I I 1 990 2,400 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Govern ment pure] ases of goo Is and senices Exports md imports of goods ind service. Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment 2,732.0 3,052.6 3,166,0 3,405.7 3,772.2 4,014.9 4,231.6 4,515.6 4,873.7 5,200.8 5,465.1 1,732.6 1,915.1 2,050.7 2,234.5 2,430.5 2,629.0 2,797.4 3,009.4 3,238.2 3,450.1 3,657.3 437.0 515.5 447.3 502.3 664.8 643.1 659.4 699.5 747.1 771.2 741.0 32.1 33.9 26.3 -6.1 -58.9 78.0 -97.4 114.7 — 74.1 -46.1 31.2 351.0 382.8 361.9 352.5 383.5 370.9 396.5 449.6 552.0 626.2 672.8 318.9 348.9 335.6 358.7 442.4 448.9 493.8 564.3 626.1 672.3 704.0 530.3 588.1 641.7 675.0 735.9 820.8 872.2 921.4 962.5 1,025.6 1,098.1 208.1 242.2 272.7 283.5 310.5 355:2 366.5 381.3 380.3 400.0 424.0 142.7 167.5 193.8 214.4 234.3 259.1 277.8 294.6 297.2 301.1 313.6 65.4 74.8 78.9 69.1 76.2 96.0 88.7 86.7 83.1 98.9 110.4 322.2 345.9 369.0 391.5 425.3 465.6 505.7 540.2 582.3 625.6 674.1 2,740.3 3,028.6 3,190.5 3,412.8 3,704.5 4,003.6 4,224.8 4,487.3 4,847.5 5,172.5 5,470.2 2,699.8 3,018.7 3,139.7 3,411.8 3,831.1 4,092.8 4,329.0 4,630.3 4,947.8 5,246.9 5,496.4 IV IV IV IV IV IV IV 3,212.5 3,545.8 3,851.8 4,107.9 4,297.3 4,647.6 5,009.8 2,117.0 2,315.8 2,493.4 2,700.4 2,868.5 3,079.1 3,332.6 409.6 579.8 661.8 654.1 648.8 741.4 747.5 14.1 -25.8 67.9 -103.2 108.9 115.0 -70.3 335.9 364.7 385.7 369.2 402.4 485.8 583.1 321.9 390.5 453.6 472.4 511.3 600.7 653.5 671.8 676.1 764.5 856.7 888.9 942.0 1,000.0 293.2 276.1 326.0 376.6 368.8 388.2 401.1 205.4 221.5 244.1 268.6 280.7 296.0 299.6 87.7 54.6 81.9 108.0 88.1 92.2 101.6 378.7 400.0 438.5 480.1 520.1 553.9 598.9 3,272.4 3,514.8 3,806.8 4,100.7 4,309.4 4,591.9 4,993.6 3,198.5 3,571.6 3,919.7 4,211.2 4,406.2 4,762.6 5,080.1 1989: HI IV 5,238.6 5,289.3 3,484.3 3,518.5 775.8 762.7 49.3 -35.3 623.7 642.8 673.0 678.1 1,027.8 1,043.3 399.2 399.9 306.3 299.2 93.0 100.7 628.6 643.4 5,209.7 5,264.3 5,287.9 5,324.6 1990: I U Ill IV '. 5,375.4 5,443.3 5,514.6 5,527.3 3,588.1 3,622.7 3,693.4 3,724.9 747.2 759.0 759.7 698.3 30.0 — 24.9 -41.3 28.8 661.3 659.7 672.7 697.4 691.3 684.6 714.1 726.2 1,070.1 1,086.4 1,102.8 1,132.9 410.6 421.9 425.8 437.6 307.2 309.6 312.6 325.0 103.4 112.3 113.2 112.6 659.6 664.6 677.0 695.3 5,387.2 5,429.9 5,505.6 5,558.2 5,405.3 5,468.2 5,555.9 5,556.1 Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990r. 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1 Gross national product GNP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Final Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total Total National defense Nondefense chases l and local Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS [Billions of 1982 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Exports and imp orts of goods and sen/ices Gross p rivate domestic investment Personal consumption expenditures Total 3,187.1 3,248.8 3,166.0 3,279.1 3,501.4 3,618.7 3,717.9 3,845.3 4,016.9 4,117.7 4,157.3 2,000.4 2,024.2 2,050.7 2,146.0 2,249.3 2,354.8 2,446.4 2,515.8 2,606.5 2,656.8 2,681.6 509.3 545.5 447.3 504.0 658.4 637.0 639.6 669.0 705.7 716.9 688.7 379.2 395.2 366.7 361.2 425.2 453.5 438.4 449.8 487.2 506.1 515.4 137.0 126.5 105.1 149.3 170.9 174.4 195.7 196.4 194.9 187.0 176.8 IV IV IV IV IV IV IV 3,159.3 3,365.1 3,535.2 3,662.4 3,733.6 3,920.7 4,059.3 2,078.7 2,191.9 2,281.1 2,386.9 2,477.8 2,534.2 2,638.8 408.8 577.2 655.7 648.0 615.2 706.6 696.2 352.3 390.4 444.4 460.9 435.7 462.3 486.6 115.8 159.9 169.6 179.4 200.3 195.8 195.6 1989: IH IV 4,129.7 4,133.2 2,675.3 2,669.9 722.3 709.1 513.3 508.4 184.4 181.8 24.6 18.9 1990: I 4,150.6 4,155.1 4,170.0 4,153.4 2,677.3 2,678.8 2,696.8 2,673.6 700.7 700.7 697.0 656.3 514.6 508.4 519.3 519.4 188.3 182.8 173.0 163.3 -2.2 9.5 4.7 -26.4 Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 ' 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: n HI IV r 1 al product Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed Change in business inven- Govern •nent pure aases of good s and serTices Federal Exports Imports Total 6.9 57.0 23.9 49.4 -24.5 26.3 -6.4 -19.9 62.3 -84.0 9.1 - 104.3 5.6 — 129.7 22.8 -118.5 23.6 -75.9 23.8 -54.1 -3.6 -33.8 388.9 392.7 361.9 348.1 371.8 367.2 397.1 451.8 534.7 593.3 631.5 332.0 343.4 335.6 368.1 455.8 471.4 526.9 570.3 610.6 647.4 665.3 620.5 629.7 641.7 649.0 677.7 731.2 761.6 779.1 780.5 798.1 820.8 -59.3 11.7 27.0 -46.2 41.7 -94.8 7.7 -125.3 -20.8 - 135.4 48.4 -111.3 14.0 -75.7 336.0 355.5 376.6 367.4 406.5 487.0 555.3 324.3 401.6 471.4 492.6 541.9 598.3 631.0 -64.1 -47.9 592.5 611.6 — 35.4 -44.6 -46.5 -8.8 628.1 620.1 630.5 647.2 Net exports State and local Final sales Gross domestic purchases * National defense Nondefense 246.9 259.6 272.7 275.1 290.8 326.0 334.1 339.6 328.1 334.9 343.7 171.2 180.3 193.8 206.9 218.5 237.2 252.1 265.1 260.7 256.3 258.1 75.7 79.3 78.9 68.2 72.3 88.8 82.0 74.5 67.5 78.7 85.0 373.6 370.1 369.0 373.9 387.0 405.2 427.5 439.5 452.4 463.2 477.1 3,194.0 3,225.0 3,190.5 3,285.5 3,439.1 3,609.6 3,712.4 3,822.5 3,993.2 4,094.0 4,160.9 3,130.1 3,199.4 3,139.7 3,299.1 3,585.4 3,723.0 3,847.6 3,963.8 4,092.8 4,171.8 4,191.1 660.1 642.2 693.2 752.7 776.0 791.3 799.9 289.5 266.0 300.5 340.6 342.4 347.7 342.3 201.4 211.6 225.3 241.4 255.8 266.0 261.1 88.2 54.4 75.2 99.2 86.6 81.7 81.2 370.6 376.2 392.7 412.1 433.6 443.6 457.5 3,218.6 3,338.1 3,493.5 3,654.7 3,754.4 3,872.3 4,045.2 3,147.6 3,411.3 3,630.0 3,787.6 3,869.0 4,032.0 4,134.9 656.6 659.4 796.2 802.2 333.0 332.7 260.2 255.5 72.8 77.2 463.2 469.5 4,105.1 4,114.4 4,193.9 4,181.1 663.5 664.7 677.0 656.0 807.9 820.2 822.7 832.3 333.0 345.9 346.0 349.9 254.4 256.5 258.2 265.7 78.6 89.4 87.8 84.2 475.0 474.3 476.7 482.4 4,152.8 4,145.6 4,165.3 4,179.8 4,185.9 4,199.7 4,216.5 4,162.2 Total Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GNP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1982 = 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Personal c onsumption expenditures Period national product Total Gross mvate domestic i]nvestment Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Nonresidential Exports an . imports of goods am1 services Gove rnment pure bases of goo ds and sernces Federal Residential fixed Exports Imports Total National defense Nondefense State and local 85.7 94.0 100.0 103.9 107.7 110.9 113.8 117.4 121.3 126.3 131.5 86.6 94.6 100.0 104.1 108.1 111.6 114.3 119.6 124.2 129.9 136.4 89.2 95.7 100.0 102.1 103.8 104.8 105.6 108.2 109.4 110.9 112.4 89.4 96.9 100.0 102.1 105.0 107.5 107.3 112.2 116.6 122.8 131.0 83.9 92.6 100.0 106.2 111.6 116.8 122.4 128.7 134.5 141.0 147.7 85.1 93.4 100.0 98.8 97.9 97.7 99.3 98.9 100.2 101.2 101.7 89.4 96.6 100.0 102.2 106.0 108.3 111.1 115.2 119.3 123.5 125.5 90.2 97.5 100.0 101.3 103.2 101.0 99.8 99.5 103.2 105.5 106.5 96.0 101.6 100.0 97.4 97.1 95.2 93.7 99.0 102.5 103.8 105.8 84.3 93.3 100.0 103.1 106.8 109.0 109.7 112.3 115.9 119.4 123.3 83.4 92.9 100.0 103.6 107.2 109.2 110.2 111.1 114.0 117.5 121.2 86.4 94.3 100.0 101.4 105.5 108.2 108.1 116.3 123.2 125.8 129.8 86.2 93.4 100.0 104.7 109.9 114.9 118.3 122.9 128.7 135.1 141.3 IV IV IV IV IV IV IV 101.7 105.4 109.0 112.2 115.1 118.5 123.4 101.8 105.7 109.3 113.1 115.8 121.5 126.3 100.7 103.1 104.1 104.7 106.2 108.9 110.3 101.0 103.1 105.8 108.7 107.8 113.9 118.6 102.7 108.3 113.5 119.0 124.9 130.9 137.0 100.7 98.3 97.9 97.9 100.0 99.0 101.8 99.1 103.1 107.2 109.0 112.4 116.5 120.6 100.0 102.6 102.4 100.5 99.0 99.7 105.0 99.3 97.2 96.2 95.9 94.4 100.4 103.6 101.3 103.8 108.5 110.6 107.7 111.7 117.2 102.0 104.7 108.3 111.3 109.7 111.3 114.7 99.5 100.3 108.9 108.8 101.7 112.8 125.1 102.2 106.3 111.7 116.5 120.0 124.9 130.9 1989: III IV 126.8 128.0 130.2 131.8 111.2 111.4 123.2 124.5 141.6 143.4 100.9 100.7 124.2 124.3 105.3 105.1 102.5 102.8 119.9 120.2 117.7 117.1 127.8 130.4 135.7 137.1 1990: I 129.5 131.0 132.2 133.1 134.0 135.2 137.0 139.3 112.5 112.1 112.3 112.7 128.3 129.4 131.5 134.9 145.1 146.6 148.5 150.4 101.6 101.6 102.6 100.9 125.3 125.3 126.0 125.7 105.3 106.4 106.7 107.8 104.2 103.0 105.5 110.7 123.3 122.0 123.0 125.1 120.8 120.7 121.1 122.3 131.5 125.6 128.9 133.8 138.9 140.1 142.0 144.1 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 ' 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: n Ill IV ' Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from preceding period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Or ss national pr duet Period Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars 1980 1981 -0.2 8.9 1.9 11.7 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990"; 1987: I U Ill IV 1988: I II Ill IV 1989: I II 3.7 7.6 -2.5 3.6 6.8 3.4 2.7 3.4 4.5 2.5 1.0 5.2 4.2 4.1 6.6 5.1 3.6 2.7 2.7 3.6 1.6 1.7 .3 1.7 .4 1.4 10.8 Ill IV 1990: I II Ill 6.4 5.4 6.7 7.9 6.7 5.1 9.1 7.5 7.4 8.7 7.8 8.3 7.4 7.7 7.5 5.8 5.1 3.9 6.7 5.1 5.3 .9 '. IV. -1.6 Implieit price deflator Personal consumption e \penditures Chain price index 9.0 9.0 9.7 6.4 3.9 3.7 3.0 2.6 3.2 3.3 4.1 4.1 3.5 3.1 3.5 1.7 2.7 4.4 4.7 4.7 3.9 3.9 3.2 3.8 4.8 4.7 3.7 2.8 9.4 6.3 Fixedweighted price index (1982 weights) 9.3 9.3 6.2 4.1 4.0 3.4 2.7 3.5 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.1 3.9 3.3 2.5 3.3 3.7 4.3 4.3 4.3 3.1 3.3 3.1 3.3 4.2 4.8 4.4 4.7 4.4 3.1 3.7 6.1 4.1 3.7 3.6 NOTE.—Annual changes are from preceding year and quarterly changes are from preceding quarter. Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars 10.6 10.5 7.1 9.0 8.8 8.2 6.4 7.6 7.6 6.5 6.0 7.3 9.6 8.9 3.7 9.2 7.4 8.2 8.1 4.8 6.6 7.0 4.0 8.2 3.9 8.0 3.5 4.4 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.7 5.5 4.4 4.9 4.6 3.1 3.8 6.6 3,9 4.2 4.7 -0.2 1.2 1.3 4.6 4.8 4.7 3.9 2.8 3.6 1.9 .9 .7 4.5 4.3 -.4 6.9 2.7 3.5 3.5 -.3 1.3 4.6 -.8 1.1 .2 2.7 -3.4 Implieit price deflator Chain price index 10.7 10.9 9.2 5.7 4.1 3.8 3.2 2.4 4.6 3.8 4.6 5.0 6.4 4.8 9.2 57 4.2 3.9 3.5 2.7 4.6 4.0 4.7 4.9 6.2 4.9 4.3 4.0 2.5 4.7 48 4.8 5.0 5.3 2.6 4.9 6.8 3.4 5.2 6.5 4.4 4.1 2.3 4.3 4.6 4.6 5.2 5.1 2.2 5.0 6.8 3.6 5.4 6.9 weighted price index (1082 weights) 105 90 56 42 40 35 27 46 41 48 5.2 63 5.1 43 4.3 26 48 51 4.9 50 5.7 2.7 4.7 74 31 57 7.1 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS-OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross ( omestic prod net of nonfir ancial corporatt business (billions }f dollars) Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990'. 1982: IV 1983: IV 1984: IV 1985: IV 1986: IV 1987: IV 1988: IV 1989: HI IV 1990: I n in IV 1 Current dollars 1982 dollars 1,540.8 1,738.4 1,782.2 1,914.2 2,146.7 2,267.1 2,367.1 2,524.8 2,720.7 2,854.5 2,954.6 1,779.4 2,012.5 2,201.8 2,309.4 2,408.7 2,597.4 2,797.3 2,879.1 2,878.5 2,907.5 2,960.0 2,979.1 2,971.9 1,807.9 1,837.2 1,782.2 1,866.0 2,036.5 2,117.4; 2,173.9' 2,290.2 2,403.7 2,431.2 2,428.6 1,760.2 1,940.5 2,069.5 2,137.7 2,198.5 2,339.4 2,428.6 2,443.9 2,421.8 2,423.1 2,440.1 2,435.1 2,416.2 Total cost and profit 2 0.852 .946 1.000 1.026 1.054 1.071 1.089 1.102 1.132 1.174 1.217 1.011 1.037 1.064 1.080 1.096 1.110 1.152 1.178 1.189 1.200 1.213 1.223 1.230 Curren t-dollar cos t ~ Capital consumption allowIndirect ances business with taxes 3 capital consumption adjustment 0.095 .109 .125 .123 .118 .119 .123 .123 .124 .131 .137 .131 .120 .118 .120 .124 .122 .126 .132 .135 .135 .135 .137 .140 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1982 dol- lars. 2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. 0.077 .090 .094 .098 .100 .103 .106 .105 .107 .112 .119 .096 .098 .102 .104 .106 .105 .108 .113 .114 .117 .116 .121 .123 and profit per unit o f output (d >llars) ' Corp orate profit with inventory valuation £ nd capital consur option adju tments Compensation of employees Net interest 0.581 .632 .676 .679 .687 .704 .721 .726 .750 .782 .817 .685 .680 .694 .713 .727 .734 .763 .782 .795 .803 .812 .823 .828 0.031 .037 .043 .037 .039 .038 .041 .041 .041 .050 .053 .042 .037 .042 .037 .042 .040 .042 .051 .052 .052 .053 .053 .054 Total 0.068 .078 .063 .089 .109 .106 .098 .107 .111 .099 .091 .057 .103 .107 .106 .096 .109 .112 .100 .092 .093 .097 .090 .086 Profits tax liability 0.037 .035 .026 .032 .036 .033 .035 ..041 .043 .042 .040 .023 .036 .032 .033 .038 .042 .043 .041 .040 .039 .040 .041 .039 Profits after tax 4 0.031 .044 .037 .057 .073 .073 .064 .067 .068 .057 .051 .034 .066 .075 .072 .058 .067 .069 .059 .052 .053 .057 .049 .046 Output per hour of all employees (1982 dollars) Compensation per hour of all employees (dollars) 18.591 18.703 18.774 19.284 19.744 20.057 20.522 21.014 21.306 20.955 10809 11 815 12 682 13085 13 571 14 112 14793 15 265 15 874 16 396 18.793 19.442 19.792 20.129 20.662 21.139 21.208 20.989 20.743 20.663 20.760 20.707 12 881 13 221 13 741 14350 15017 15507 16.088 16404 16.483 16 597 16.863 17 048 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 4 NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period National income Compensation of employ- Proprietoi s' income with in ventory valuation uid capital consmnption adjust ments Farm 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 r Rental income of persons with capital tion adjustment Nonfarm Corpora te profits wit h inventory valuation an 1 capital consulnption adjust ments Profits with inventory valuation adjustme it and witho at capital consu mption adjus tment Total Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment -11.4 272.3 281.0 304.8 319.0 325.5 328.6 371.8 445.1 466.7 164.1 231.5 226.1 235.0 234.1 289.7 331.1 -13.4 -8.1 -1.6 -6.6 -8.0 -21.1 -22.5 -4.5 25.1 42.3 63.0 49.1 54.5 40.9 266.9 290.2 313.1 322.7 324.0 338.2 394.1 285.3 275.3 291.4 289.8 -6.1 -14.5 21.4 15.6 456.2 461.7 285.5 298.8 298.7 297.1 296.9 299.3 318.5 310.8 -11.4 -.5 -19.8 -13.8 11.3 7.7 2.0 — 1.4 463.6 466.2 468.3 468.4 1,907.0 2,020.7 2,213.9 2,367.5 2,511.4 2,686.4 2,905.1 3,079.0 3,244.2 24.6 12.4 30.5 30.2 34.7 42.8 43.7 48.6 49.9 150.9 178.4 204.0 225.6 247.2 280.6 310.5 330.7 352.6 13.6 13.2 8.5 9.2 11.6 13.7 16.3 8.2 6.9 150.0 213.7 266.9 282.3 282.1 308.3 337.6 311.6 299.9 159.2 196.7 234.2 222.6 228.3 255.9 289.8 286.1 295.0 169.6 207.6 240.0 224.3 221.6 275.3 316.7 307.7 306.4 -10.4 -10.9 -5.8 -1.7 6.7 -19.4 27.0 -21.7 IV IV IV IV IV IV IV 2,548.2 2,851.5 3,096.1 3,312.8 3,473.1 3,791.5 4,104.1 1,931.1 2,092.7 2,272.7 2,426.7 2,571.2 2,770.3 2,986.7 28.5 19.3 28.1 29.2 37.2 52.3 35.5 159.8 188.6 209.7 235.0 252.0 293.0 321.5 15.8 12.4 5.6 7.8 13.5 14.6 16.8 146.1 248.5 266.9 291.4 275.2 323.1 349.6 150.7 223.4 224.6 228.4 226.1 268.6 308.7 1989: in IV 4,232.1 4,267.1 3,095.2 3,128.6 38.7 45.7 329.5 336.0 5.8 4.1 306.7 290.9 1990: I II Ill IV r 4,350.3 4,411.3 4,452.4 4,466.5 3,180.4 3,232.5 3,276.9 3,286.9 57.4 51.0 42.4 48.8 346.6 350.8 355.6 357.4 5.5 4.3 8.4 9.3 296.8 306.6 300.7 295.7 1 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Net interest -9.2 17.0 32.7 59.7 53.8 52.4 47.8 25.5 4.9 2,518.4 2,719.5 3,028.6 3,234.0 3,412.6 3,660.3 3,984.9 4,223.3 4,420.1 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: Capital consump.. a jus Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Durabl , goods Nor durable g(>ods m » 1 Period personal con- Motor vehicles and parts Furniture and household equipment expendiures Total durable goods 2,050.7 2,234.5 2,430.5 2,629.0 2,797.4 3,009.4 3,238.2 3,450.1 3,657.3 252.7 289.1 335.5 372.2 406.0 423.4 457.5 474.6 480.3 108.9 130.4 157.4 179.1 196.2 197.9 212.2 215.5 213.0 95.7 107.1 118.8 129.9 139.7 148.8 161.8 171.4 176.4 IV IV IV IV IV IV IV 2,117.0 2,315.8 2,493.4 2,700.4 2,868.5 3,079.1 3,332.6 263.8 310.0 346.7 373.2 422.0 427.4 473.1 115.7 144.4 162.3 173.8 201.1 198.9 217.8 1989: III IV 3,484.3 3,518.5 487.1 471.2 1990: I II Ill IV. 3,588.1 3,622.7 3,693.4 3,724.9 492.1 478.4 482.3 468.5 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990r 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Total Serv- Retail sales of new pa ssenger cars (mi lions of un ts) Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil 398.8 421.9 448.5 471.6 500.0 530.7 562.6 595.3 624.7 124.4 135.1 146.7 156.4 166.8 178.4 191.1 204.6 213.2 89.1 90.2 90.0 90.6 73.5 75.3 77.3 83.8 93.8 158.7 169.5 182.1 192.6 201.7 216.9 229.1 246.3 261.9 1,027.0 1,128.7 1,227.6 1,345.6 1,449.5 1,584.7 1,720.7 1,845.5 1,983.3 5.8 6.8 8.0 8.2 8.2 7.1 7.5 7.1 6.9 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.6 786.6 837.9 879.6 932.7 952.1 1,019.9 1,088.0 407.0 430.8 456.1 482.5 511.9 539.0 577.1 126.5 141.1 149.8 160.6 168.7 182.2 198.6 89.8 91.9 89.0 91.0 66.0 77.3 78.5 163.4 174.0 184.7 198.5 205.5 221.5 233.9 1,066.5 1,167.9 1,267.1 1,394.5 1,494.4 1,631.8 1,771.5 6.0 7.4 7.7 7.0 7.7 6.6 7.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.3 3.0 88.7 90.7 1,137.3 1,148.8 597.6 602.2 206.9 208.7 84.5 83.5 248.3 254.4 1,859.8 1,898.5 7.8 6.2 2.9 2.6 92.0 89.3 91.2 91.3 1,174.7 1,179.0 1,205.0 1,216.0 616.4 623.3 629.8 629.4 212.9 212.6 215.8 211.5 87.1 84.5 94.0 109.4 258.2 258.6 265.4 265.6 1,921.3 1,965.3 2,006.2 2,040.4 7.0 6.8 7.2 6.6 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4 Other durable goo s Food 48.1 51.6 59.3 63.2 70.0 76.7 83.5 87.8 90.9 771.0 816.7 867.3 911.2 942.0 1,001.3 1,060.0 1,130.0 1,193.7 99.1 112.4 122.7 134.7 143.8 151.1 166.8 49.0 53.2 61.8 64.7 77.1 77.4 88.5 226.9 207.5 171.5 173.0 221.1 212.4 214.7 203.9 178.9 176.8 176.4 173.4 Other Domestics Imports SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $11.6 billion (annual rate) in February, after falling $19.0 billion in January. Private wages and salaries rose $0.7 billion in February after falling $22.1 billion in January. The overall changes were also affected by special factors: farm subsidies raised the February change and lowered the January change; the January change was affected by an increase in personal contributions for social insurance, by cost-of-living adjustments to several transfer programs, and by a Federal pay raise. Excluding these factors, personal income increased $5.5 billion in February and decreased $18.9 billion in January. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 5,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS"(RATIO SCALE) 5,000 4.000 4,000 3,000 3,000 TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME 2,000 2,000 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 1,400 1,400 OTHER INCOME 800 800 TRANSFER PAYMENTS 400 1983 1984 1985 400 Illllllllll 1988 1987 1986 1989 • SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1990 1991 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Proprietors ' income Period 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 r 1990: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct * Nov r Dec r 1991: Jan r. Feb" Total personal income 2,520.9 2,670.8 2,838.6 3,108.7 3,325.3 3,526.2 3,766.4 4,070.8 4,384.3 4,645.5 4,561.6 4,594.7 4,604.5 4,621.4 4,640.7 4,662.7 4,675.0 4,697.8 4,695.9 4,716.2 4,743.3 4,724.3 4,735.9 salary disburse- 1,510.3 1,586.1 1,676.6 1,838.6 1,975.4 2,094.8 2,249.7 2,431.1 2,573.2 2,705.3 2,652.2 2,669.2 2,682.4 2,695.5 2,711.1 2,727.1 2,728.3 2,747.2 2,731.6 2,731.6 2,753.6 2,737.9 2,741.7 Other labor income 1 2 150.3 163.6 173.6 182.9 187.6 199.3 209.4 225.5 241.9 258.1 252.8 254.0 255.2 256.4 257.6 258.8 260.0 261.2 262.2 263.2 264.2 265.2 266.2 Farm 30.7 24.6 12.4 30.5 30.2 34.7 42.8 43.7 48.6 49.9 55.6 65.5 55.0 51.8 46.1 45.7 42.9 38.5 39.1 54.5 52.9 39.6 45.7 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. 2 Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 3 Nonfarm 156.1 150.9 178.4 204.0 225.6 247.2 280.6 310.5 330.7 352.6 347.0 349.4 349.2 351.3 351.8 353.0 356.6 357.0 357.1 357.6 357.5 353.4 353.8 4 Eental income of persons 4 13.3 13.6 13.2 8.5 9.2 11.6 13.7 16.3 8.2 6.9 4.5 4.3 3.8 4.2 4.9 6.2 9.1 10.0 10.8 8.8 8.3 8.3 5.7 Personal dividend income 61.3 63.9 68.7 75.5 78.7 85.8 91.8 102.2 114.4 123.8 120.6 121.3 122.3 123.0 123.4 124.3 125.0 125.3 126.1 126.8 127.2 127.2 127.6 Personal interest income 335.4 369.7 393.1 444.7 478.0 493.2 501.3 547.9 643.2 680.4 670.5 671.4 674.5 677.9 681.5 683.6 685.4 686.8 687.5 688.1 688.2 687.8 686.8 Transfer payments 5 368.1 410.6 442.6 456.6 489.8 521.5 549.9 587.7 636.9 694.8 679.6 683.4 683.5 685.3 691.4 692.1 695.9 701.2 710.0 714.0 721.2 741.9 745.7 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance 104.5 112.3 120.1 132.7 149.3 161.9 172.9 194.1 212.8 226.2 221.2 223.8 221.4 223.9 227.1 228.1 228.2 229.5 228.4 228.4 229.9 237.0 237.3 Nonfarm personal income 6 2,465.6 2,618.7 2,799.0 3,052.1 3,271.3 3,469.4 3,702.2 4,006.0 4,314.6 4,574.3 4,484.9 4,508.1 4,528.2 4,548.3 4,573.2 4,595.6 4,610.7 4,637.8 4,635.3 4,640.2 4,668.8 4,663.0 4,668.5 With capital consumption adjustment. Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5 6 DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME According to revised estimates, real per capita disposable personal income fell again in the fourth quarter of 1990. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 8,000 8,000 1990 • SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Personal Less: Persona! Disposable nontax payments income BUI;ons 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 r 1990 . 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1989: IV IV IV IV IV IV IV III.... IV 1990: I II Ill r.... IV ... COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Less: Personal outlays ' Equals: Personal saving Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (billions) Current dollars Per capit i personal consul nption expen Iitures 1982 Current dollars dollars 9,722 9,769 9,724 9,930 10,419 10,625 10,905 10,946 11,368 11,531 11,509 7,607 8,320 8,818 9,516 10,253 10,985 11,576 12,334 13,144 13,866 14,547 8,783 8,794 8,818 9,139 9,489 9,840 10,123 10,311 10,580 10,678 10,666 9,749 10,151 10,491 10,667 10,909 11,097 11,458 11,538 11,541 11,586 11,564 11,511 11,376 9,068 9,825 10,479 11,240 11,825 12,572 13,474 13,986 14,084 14,330 14,432 14,670 14,752 8,904 9,299 9,587 9,935 10,214 10,347 10,669 10,739 10,687 10,693 10,671 10,711 10,589 1982 dollars 340.5 393.3 409.3 410.5 440.2 486.6 512.9 571.6 591.6 658.8 699.4 1,918.0 2,127.6 2,261.4 2,428.1 2,668.6 2,838.7 3,013.3 3,194.7 3,479.2 3,725.5 3,946.1 1,968.1 2,107.5 2,297.4 2,504.5 2,713.3 2,888.5 3,102.2 3,333.6 3,553.7 3,766.0 2,729.2 2,941.8 3,188.3 3,399.1 3,597.8 3,890.9 4,186.2 4,402.8 4,469.2 4,562.8 4,622.2 4,678.5 4,718.5 411.1 413.9 459.7 499.6 534.4 588.6 607.3 659.5 669.6 675.1 696.5 709.5 716.6 2,318.1 2,527.9 2,728.6 2,899.5 3,063.4 3,302.3 3,578.9 3,743.4 3,799.6 3,887.7 3,925.7 3,969.1 4,001.9 2,174.9 2,382.5 2,571.3 2,787.7 2,961.4 3,172.6 3,430.4 3,588.8 3,625.5 3,696.4 3,730.6 3,802.6 3,834.4 1,781.1 2,214.3 8,421 136.9 159.4 2,248.6 9,243 2,261.5 9,724 153.9 2,331.9 10,340 130.6 164.1 2,469.8 11,257 125.4 2,542.8 11,861 124.9 2,635.3 12,469 92.5 2,670.7 13,094 145.6 2,800.5 14,123 171.8 2,869.0 14,973 2,893.5 15,695 180.1 S easonally adjusted ann ual rates 143.1 145.4 157.3 111.7 102.0 129.7 148.5 154.5 174.1 191.3 195.1 166.5 167.5 2,276.1 2,392.7 2,496.3 2,562.8 2,646.2 2,717.9 2,833.9 2,874.3 2,883.2 2,900.9 2,902.8 2,898.0 2,872.4 1 Includes personal consumption expet iitures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). 9,929 10,725 11,467 12,068 12,629 13,483 14,470 15,026 15,210 15,527 15,639 15,765 15,849 Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population, including Armed Forces abroad (thousands) 2 PerceiIt Dolla 'S of dollars 2,258.5 2,520.9 2,670.8 2,838.6 3,108.7 3,325.3 3,526.2 3,766.4 4,070.8 4,384.3 4,645.5 Perc ipita disposable personal mcc me -1.1 .5 -.5 2.1 4.9 2.0 2.6 .4 3.9 1.4 -.2 1.2 9.1 1.7 3.3 .3 6.4 1.2 1.6 .1 1.6 Q -1.8 -4.6 7.1 7.5 6.8 5.4 6.1 4.4 4.1 2.9 4.2 4.6 4.6 227,754 230,182 232,549 234,829 237,051 239,322 241,660 243,982 246,358 248,810 251,420 6.2 5.8 5.8 3.9 3.3 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.6 233,466 235,707 237,946 240,257 242,579 244,925 247,329 249,127 249,818 250,392 251,026 251,767 252,495 4.9 5.0 4.2 4.2 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the third quarter of 1990, according to revised estimates, gross farm income fell $0.3 billion (annual rate) and net farm income rose $0.7 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 240 200 240 ~" 160 *- —ir-~—•—'] ^—i r—^ ' ~^~] ^vfc-_- 160 1 120 \ GRO 5S FARM INCOME 80 80 60 /*> 'Nv A * * ; ' i / t i \ N /"~ / I/ \l * \ / * N *•*••. \/ / / ^— w - ^* ^^ 40 \ / \ NET FARM IN COME 20 1 \ '\ ' i / \/ I 1 1982 1 10 i i i 1 1984 1983 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1986 1985 1 1 1987 1 1 1 1989 1988 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 1 i 1990 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] In come of farm ope rators from farmi (iross Period Total 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1988: III IV 1989: I II in IV 1990: I r IF HP 149.3 166.3 163.5 153.2 170.2 162.9 156.5 169.0 173.8 189.2 167.6 181.5 190.8 189.5 185.7 190.9 195.1 194.3 194.0 139.7 141.6 142.6 136.8 142.8 144.1 135.2 141.7 150.2 159.2 154.9 155.4 153.7 157.4 163.9 161.7 159.5 168.1 177.4 Livestock and products Net farni income V 1 Crops 68.0 69.2 70.3 69.6 71.7 72.5 72.3 67.2 72.9 69.8 71.5 76.0 78.8 83.7 79.2 81.2 69.9 74.3 63.7 65.6 71.4 75.4 75.7 74.2 72.1 76.5 80.3 72.8 72.2 80.2 86.9 81.6 80.8 83.6 88.9 87.3 87.9 90.5 1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average . prices during the year. g farm incom e Cas h marketing rece ipts Total ' n 3 inventory changes 2 -6.3 6.5 -1.4 -10.9 6.0 -2.3 -2.4 Production expenses 133.1 139.4 140.0 137.9 143.8 3.8 4.9 4.8 4.3 131.9 125.5 127.7 132.1 142.6 135.4 135.9 142.5 143.3 143.4 141.1 5.7 4.6 3.5 140.3 146.2 145.2 -2.8 -4.1 4.4 -3.7 -2.1 Current dollars 1982 dollars 3 16.1 26.9 23.5 15.3 26.3 31.0 31.0 41.3 41.8 46.7 32.2 45.5 48.3 46.2 42.4 49.8 54.8 48.1 48.8 Income in current dollars divided by the GNP implicit price deflator. NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Credit Corporation loans and operator households. Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce. 18.8 28.6 23.5 14.7 24.5 27.9 27.2 35.1 34.4 37.0 26.4 36.9 38.8 36.7 33.4 38.9 42.3 36.7 36.9 CORPORATE PROFITS In the fourth quarter of 1990, according to preliminary estimates, corporate profits before tax fell $7.7 billion (annual rate) and profits after tax rose $1.7 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARb 360 360 SEASONA UY ADJUSTED ANNU* t RATES r\ /I 320 ^ _ / ^ , 280 PROFITS BEFORE TA>( r~\ 240 240 F~") 200 / 160 _ _ ^ • / -N^_ — VV ___. ""v. S* S , 120 — 200 VN •^ "*X PROFITS AFTER TAX ^" ••"-—. X ' "™* S* V »^**" ** ** *""" . r.— -^ 1 T/ X LIABILITY r— — * \ 80 ••_. ^ \ 40 "• ••— 1 1 I s r^-UNDIST ^— RIBUTED PRCJFITS-1—«= 40 \ \ 1 J_ 1982 \ -• 1983 1 1 1984 1 I ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1987 1986 1985 1 I ! 1 1988 I | 1 1989 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1 1 0 1990 COUNCIL OF CONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits after taX Prc fits (before t »x) with inve ntory valuati an adjustment ! Do nestic indust ies Nonfmancial Total 2 Total Financial Total " 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 r 1990 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1989: IV IV IV IV IV IV IV III IV 1990: I II Ill IV 1 2 194.0 202.3 159.2 196.7 234.2 222.6 228.3 255.9 289.8 286.1 295.0 150.7 223.4 224.6 228.4 226.1 268.6 308.7 285.3 275.3 285.5 298.8 298.7 297.1 159.6 173.8 131.2 166.6 203.3 191.4 195.2 218.4 246.5 235.2 238.1 121.6 190.7 193.9 193.6 193.4 226.2 261.9 236.0 218.4 232.6 249.9 241.1 229.0 21.0 16.5 11.8 18.1 13.0 22.8 32.0 20.7 22.4 15.4 18.4 18.7 15.5 13.6 26.0 28.6 19.8 24.1 9.2 6.9 16.1 18.2 21.7 17.8 138.6 157.3 119.4 148.5 190.3 168.6 163.2 197.8 224.1 219.8 219.7 102.9 175.2 180.3 167.6 164.8 206.4 237.8 226.9 211.5 216.5 231.7 219.3 211.3 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. Manufacturing 77.1 88.5 58.0 70.1 88.8 79.7 59.5 86.7 106.5 96.1 90.5 46.8 88.6 79.8 83.8 64.8 98.2 112.6 99.9 83.7 90.1 100.8 91.2 Profits before tax Tax liability 237.1 226.5 169.6 207.6 240.0 224.3 221.6 275.3 316.7 307.7 306.4 164.1 231.5 226.1 235.0 234.1 289.7 331.1 291.4 289.8 296.9 299.3 318.5 310.8 84.8 81.1 63.1 77.2 93.9 96.4 106.3 126.9 136.2 135.1 133.0 59.8 88.1 87.0 99.8 113.1 132.1 142.1 127.8 123.5 129.9 133.1 139.1 129.8 Total Dividends Undistributed profits 54.7 63.6 66.9 71.5 79.0 83.3 91.3 98.2 110.0 123.5 133.9 68.5 73.9 80.8 84.0 93.6 102.2 115.3 125.0 127.7 130.3 13?.0 135.1 137.2 97.6 81.8 39.6 58.9 67.0 44.6 24.0 50.2 70.5 49.1 39.5 35.8 69.5 58.4 51.2 27.4 55.4 73.8 38.6 38.6 36.8 - 33.2 44.3 43.9 sale and retail trade 21.6 32.5 34.6 38.9 51.2 44.1 44.1 37.9 37.1 38.7 41.9 33.6 43.1 51.8 38.5 41.0 37.8 42.3 41.4 41.9 39.2 44.4 39.5 3 152.3 145.4 106.5 130.4 146.1 127.8 115.3 148.4 180.5 172.6 173.4 104.3 143.4 139.2 135.2 121.0 157.6 189.1 163.6 166.3 167.1 166.1 179.4 181.1 Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Inventory valuation adjustment -43.1 -24.2 — 10.4 -10.9 -5.8 -1.7 6.7 -19.4 -27.0 -21.7 — 11.4 -13.4 -8.1 -1.6 -6.6 -8.0 -21.1 -22.5 -6.1 -14.5 -11.4 -.5 -19.8 r - 13.8 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to revised estimates for the fourth quarter of 1990, nonresidential fixed investment fell $8.8 billion (annual rate) and residential investment fell $12.7 billion. There was a $30.8 billion decrease in inventories, following a rise of $9.0 billion in the third quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 900 SEASONA LLY ADJUSTED ANNU U RATES 800 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC - y/~ir^^\ NVESTMENT - ( - ^ / 500 - \ y -,"- v _ \ - | ~H1 600 f r^ 700 400 - NC3NRESIDENT AL FIX ED INVESTM :NT y . _~~~- — . \ ___----- , " — r """"•* 500 ''' _ (ESIDENTIAL INVESTME NT FIX! ED 300 - \ 300 ._._._-— . 200 100 / /X — - CHA NGE IN BUS NESS INVENTORY S '— --. 0 ,•> 100 — •x. \ ... 1 1 1 -100 1982 i i i 1983 1 1 1 1 1 1 1985 1984 1 \ \ 1 1 1 1987 1986 i ii 1988 " | | | 1 1 1 100 1990 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] 1Ixed investmen t Gross private investment 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 T. 1982: IV 1983: IV 1984: IV 1985: IV 1986: IV 1987: IV 1988: IV 1989: I II in IV 1990: I II Ill IV. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Total Total 447.3 502.3 664.8 643.1 659.4 699.9 747.1 771.2 741.0 445.3 491.5 471.8 509.4 597.1 631.8 652.5 671.2 720.8 742.9 746.1 366.7 356.9 416.0 442.9 435.2 444.9 488.4 511.9 524.1 409.6 579.8 661.8 654.1 648.8 741.4 747.5 469.5 548.8 616.8 646.8 660.9 685.7 731.3 354.9 383.9 435.0 451.3 435.8 457.5 495.3 769.7 776.7 775.8 762.7 743.1 744.0 746.9 737.7 758.9 745.6 750.7 729.2 506.5 511.4 518.1 511.8 523.1 516.5 532.8 524.0 437.0 515.5 747.2 759.0 759.7 698.3 Change iri business mven -ones Nonresidential 322.8 369.2 Structures 113.9 138.5 143.3 124.0 141.1 153.2 139.0 133.7 139.9 146.2 147.0 137.6 127.4 146.6 155.9 133.7 137.2 141.2 146.5 144.2 147.0 147.1 148.8 147.2 149.8 142.1 Producers' durable equipment 208.9 230.7 223.4 232.8 274.9 289.7 296.2 311.2 348.4 365.7 377.1 217.3 256.5 288.4 295.5 302.2 320.4 354.0 360.0 367.2 371.0 364.7 374.3 369.3 383.0 381.9 Residential 122.5 122.3 105.1 152.5 181.1 188.8 217.3 226.3 232.5 231.0 222.0 114.7 164.9 181.8 195.5 225.1 228.1 236.0 236.6 232.7 228.9 225.9 235.9 229.1 217.9 205.2 Total Nonfarm 8.3 24.0 24.5 -7.1 2.4 18.3 23.1 .4 67.7 11.3 6.9 28.3 26.2 28.3 -5.0 -59.9 31.0 45.0 7.2 -12.2 55.7 16.2 26.6 32.7 28.9 25.0 -11.8 13.4 9.0 30.8 60.5 14.6 8.6 32.3 29.8 23.3 -7.4 -51.1 21.3 41.3 23.7 8.0 59.6 35.0 16.7 26.1 26.2 24.1 -17.0 13.0 6.8 -32.4 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT According to the Commerce Department October-November 1990 survey, business spending for new plant and equipment is expected to rise 2.4 percent in 1991, following a rise of 5.2 percent in 1990. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 6UO SEASONAL Y ADJUSTED ANNUA RATES . r~1 — ^ rlOO __^^ <"""" -H i BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 600 ^ .-ir— —1 500 400 ^^ r^ /ML INDUSTRIE 5 .— \ " _— ' 300 .--* ---— " "^ NO ^MANUFACRJRING-W ^' 200 200 -'' _ ,,--""" -,. ^,— k -~_ \ MANUFACTURI ^G — --" TOO 100 i i i 1983 1 1 1 1984 1 1 1 1 1985 1 1 1986 1 1 1 1987 1 1 1 1 1988 1 1 1989 .!/ SURVEYED QUARTERLY .I/SEE FOOTNOTE A BELOW SOURCE: OEPARTMENTOF COMMERCE 1 1 1 1990 i i i 1991 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Addenda Industries surveyed quarterly Norimanufactu ing M anufacturi !g industries Total Durable Nondurable Total ' Mining Nonmanufactu ring Total Transportation Public utilities Commercial and other farm busi- Manufacturing Total Surveyed quarterly 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 4 1991 4 286.40 324.73 326.19 321.16 373.83 410.12 399.36 410.52 455.49 507.40 533.91 546.67 112.60 128.68 123.97 117.35 139.61 152.88 137.95 141.06 163.45 183.80 192.29 193.58 54.82 58.93 54.58 51.61 64.57 70.87 65.68 68.03 77.04 82.56 83.70 83.01 57.77 69.75 69.39 65.74 75.04 82.01 72.28 73.03 86.41 101.24 108.60 110.57 173.80 196.06 202.22 203.82 234.22 257.24 261.40 269.46 292.04 323.60 341.62 353.09 12.71 15.81 14.11 10.64 11.86 12.00 8.15 8.28 9.29 9.21 9.81 9.38 13.56 12.67 11.75 10.81 13.44 14.57 15.05 15.07 16.63 18.84 21.46 23.79 41.32 47.17 53.58 52.95 57.53 59.58 56.61 56.26 60.37 66.28 66.97 67.88 106.21 120.41 122.79 129.41 151.39 171.09 181.59 189.84 205.76 229.28 243.39 252.04 1989: I II Ill IV 487.43 502.05 514.95 519.58 172.73 180.91 185.99 191.88 80.20 82.44 83.60 83.41 92.53 98.47 102.40 108.47 314.70 321.14 328.96 327.70 8.94 9.24 9.24 9.38 17.84 18.42 21.03 18.25 66.09 68.09 65.19 65.82 221.82 225.39 233.50 234.25 172.73 180.91 185.99 191.88 314.70 321.14 328.96 327.70 1990: I II IV 532.45 535.49 534.86 532.84 191.36 195.16 194.48 188.16 86.35 84.34 82.67 81.42 105.02 110.82 111.81 106.74 341.09 340.33 340.39 344.67 9.58 9.84 9.98 9.84 22.13 21.86 21.41 20.42 65.72 64.27 67.48 70.40 243.66 244.37 241.51 244.02 191.36 195.16 194.48 188.16 341.09 340.33 340.39 344.67 1991: I 4 II 4 557.92 561.85 191.08 198.76 82.79 85.09 108.28 113.67 366.84 363.09 10.24 9.78 23.75 23.99 71.76 70.21 261.08 259.12 191.08 198.76 366.84 363.09 in 1 Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and real estate, which, effective with the April-May 1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ("nonmanufacturing surveyed annually") for data for these industries. 2 "All industries" plus the part of nonmanufaeturing that is surveyed annually. 10 318.08 358.77 363.08 359.73 418.38 454.93 447.11 481.51 508.22 563.93 112.60 128.68 123.97 117.35 139.61 152.88 137.95 141.06 163.45 183.80 192.29 193.58 205.48 230.09 239.11 242.38 278.77 302.05 309.16 320.45 344.77 380.13 173.80 196.06 202.22 203.82 234.22 257.24 261.40 269.46 292.04 323.60 341.62 353.09 Surveyed annual- iy j 31.68 34.04 36.89 38.56 44.55 44.81 47.75 50.99 52.73 56.53 3 Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and real estate. 4 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in October-November 1990, corrected for biases. Source; Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES In February, civilian employment was unchanged and unemployment rose 443,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 126 MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 126 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 122 122 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE 118 118 114 114 r\ 110 110 CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT 106 106 102 102 98 98 12 1983 * 16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF IABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Period Resident Armed Forces NSA Labor force including resident Armed Forces 171,775 173,939 175,891 178,080 179,912 182,293 184,490 186,322 188,081 189,686 1,645 1,668 1,676 1,697 1,706 1,706 1,737 1,709 1,688 1,637 110,315 111,872 113,226 115,241 117,167 119,540 121,602 123,378 125,557 126,424 102,042 101,194 102,510 106,702 189,090 189,198 189,326 189,467 189,607 189,763 189,901 190,002 190,095 190,312 190,483 1,678 1,669 1,657 1,639 1,630 1,627 1,640 1,601 1,570 1,615 1,617 190,592 190,717 1,615 1,602 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986* 1987 1988 1989 1990 1990: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1991: Jan Feb Employment including resident Nonagricultural Civilian labor force Agricultural Total Forces Total Part time for economic reasons 1 Labor force participation rate (percent) 2 Employment/ population ratio (percent) 2 8,237 7,425 6,701 6,528 6,874 63.9 64.0 64.0 64.4 64.8 65.3 65.6 65.9 66.5 66.4 57.8 57.9 59.5 60.1 60.7 61.5 62.3 63.0 62.7 4,669 4,708 4,680 4,689 4,745 4,780 4,830 5,051 5,135 5,163 5,262 6,579 6,563 6,691 6,662 6,560 6,827 7,015 7,087 7,142 7,337 7,600 1,374 1,370 1,417 1,404 1,436 1,508 1,568 1,605 1,591 1,727 1,739 66.5 66.5 66.5 66.5 66.4 66:3 66.2 66.3 66.2 66.1 66.3 63.0 63.0 62.9 63.0 62.9 62.7 62.5 62.6 62.4 62.2 62.3 5,178 5,803 7,715 8,158 1,829 1,975 66.0 66.1 61.9 61.8 108,856 111,303 114,177 116,677 119,030 119,550 100,397 99,526 100,834 105,005 107,150 109,597 112,440 114,968 117,342 117,914 3,368 3,401 3,383 3,321 3,179 3,163 3,208 3,169 3,199 3,186 101,685 103,971 106,434 109,232 111,800 114,142 114,728 5,852 5,997 5,512 5,334 5,345 5,122 4,965 4,657 4,860 126,331 126,467 126,438 126,578 126,427 126,336 126,345 126,571 126,445 126,338 126,791 119,752 119,904 119,747 119,916 119,867 119,509 119,330 119,484 119,303 119,001 119,191 124,653 124,798 124,781 124,939 124,797 124,709 124,705 124,970 124,875 124,723 125,174 118,074 118,235 118,090 118,277 118,237 117,882 117,690 117,883 117,733 117,386 117,574 3,119 3,197 3,140 3,286 3,279 3,108 3,152 3,194 3,175 3,185 3,253 114,955 115,038 114,950 114,991 114,958 114,774 114,538 114,689 114,558 114,201 114,321 126,253 126,678 118,537 118,520 124,638 125,076 116,922 116,918 3,163 113,759 3,222 113,696 97,030 96,125 97,450 Total 15 weeks and over Civ ilian 2,285 3,485 4,210 2,737 2,305 2,232 1,983 1,610 1,375 1,504 108,670 110,204 111,550 113,544 115,461 117,834 119,865 121,669 123,869 124,787 1 Persons a work. Economi reasons inc ude slack work, material shortag es, inability to fir d fulltime work, etc 2 Civilian la »or force (or em loyment) as percent of civilia n noninstitutiona population. Unempl >yment Civilian e mployment Noninstitutional population including resident Armed Forces NSA 4,499 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 59.0 Data beginn: ng January 986 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of change in est!mation procet ures. Source: Depar ment of Labc r, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In February, the overall unemployment rate rose to 6.4 percent and the civilian unemployment rate rose to 6.5 percent. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 25 25 20 20 TEENAGERS (16-19) 15 15 BLACK 10 10 WOMEN 20 YEARS AND OVER ALL CIVILIAN WORKERS /• f MEN 20 YEARS AND OVER 1987 1988 1991 1989 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 'UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT Of CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemp oyment ra te (percen t of civilia n labor force in group) Period 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1990: Feb Mar Apr May June .... July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1991: Jan Feb Unemployment rate, all workers ' civilian workers Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over 7.5 9.5 9.5 7.4 7.1 6.9 6.1 5.4 5.2 5.4 7.6 9.7 9.6 7.5 7.2 7.0 6.2 5.5 5.3 5.5 6.3 8.8 8.9 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.4 4.8 4.5 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.8 6.0 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.1 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.6 6.1 6.4 6.2 6.5 5.6 6.3 6.8 8.3 8.1 6.8 6.6 6.2 5.4 4.9 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.4 A II All Both sexes 16-19 years White Black and other Black Kxperienced wage and salary workers Married men, spouse present Women who maintain families Fulltime workers Parttime workers 19.6 23.2 22.4 18.9 18.6 18.3 16.9 15.3 15.0 15.5 6.7 8.6 8.4 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.3 4.7 4.5 4.7 14.2 17.3 17.8 14.4 13.7 13.1 11.6 10.4 10.0 10.1 15.6 18.9 19.5 15.9 15.1 14.5 13.0 11.7 11.4 11.3 7.3 9.3 9.2 7.1 6.8 6.6 5.8 5.2 5.0 5.3 4.3 6.5 6.5 4.6 4.3 4.4 3.9 3.3 3.0 3.4 10.4 11.7 12.2 10.3 10.4 9.8 9.2 8.1 8.1 8.2 7.3 9.6 9.5 7.2 6.8 6.6 5.8 5.2 4.9 5.2 9.4 10.5 10.4 9.3 9.3 9.1 8.4 7.6 7.3 7.4 14.8 14.6 14.8 15.4 14.7 15.8 16.6 15.7 16.2 16.4 16.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.3 9.4 9.5 9.3 9.5 9.6 10.3 10.4 10.8 10.6 11.0 11.1 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.7 11.4 11.7 11.9 11.7 12.2 12.2 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.7 5.8 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.8 7.6 8.3 7.8 7.5 8.0 8.3 8.4 8.7 8.5 8.7 8.7 5.0 4.9 5.1 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 7.4 7.2 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.8 7.7 7.2 7.1 7.3 7.6 18.2 17.1 5.5 5.9 10.7 10.7 12.1 11.8 6.0 6.4 4.0 4.3 9.0 9.1 6.0 6.4 7.7 7.6 1 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces. 2 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. 12 Bys elected grou ?s By race By sex and a«e Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor force time lost (percent) 2 8.5 11.0 10.9 8.6 8.1 7.9 7.1 6.3 5.9 6.2 5.9 5.9 6.2 6.0 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.0 7.5 SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In February, the percentage of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks fell and the percentages for 5-14 weeks, for 15-26 weeks, and for 27 weeks and over rose. Both the mean duration of unemployment and the median rose. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT 70 10 - 1987 1987 1988 1989 • SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE. DEPARTMENT Of LABOR 1990 1991 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Re ason for jnemployment: percent distributi jn Dur ation of imemployinent Period Unemployment (thousands) I ercent d atributio i Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks Stat e prognims Numb er of ks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Median Job losers Job leavers Reentrants New entrants Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) 1 Weekly a verage, t lousands 1981 1982 1983 1984 1983 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1990: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Get Nov Dec 1991: Jan Feb 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,237 7,425 6,701 6,528 6,874 6,579 6,563 6,691 6,662 6,560 6,827 7,015 7,087 7,142 7,337 7,600 7,715 8,158 41.7 36.4 33.3 39.2 42.1 41.9 43.7 46.0 48.6 46.1 47.8 48.0 47.2 46.1 46.8 46.1 47.3 43.2 44.1 44.7 43.5 44.1 42.4 30.7 31.0 27.4 28.7 30.2 31.0 29.6 30.0 30.3 32.0 31.4 31.3 31.8 32.9 31.5 31.8 30.0 34.3 33.6 31.8 33.4 32.2 33.4 13.6 16.0 15.4 12.9 12.3 12.7 12.7 12.0 11.2 11.8 11.2 11.0 11.0 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.1 12.5 12.8 12.5 12.7 12.9 14.0 16.6 23.9 19.1 15.4 14.4 14.0 12.1 9.9 10.1 9.7 9.6 10.0 9.4 10.0 10.3 10.8 10.4 9.8 10.8 10.6 11.0 11.3 1 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RK) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program. 13.7 15.6 20.0 18.2 15.6 15.0 14.5 13.5 11.9 12.1 11.7 11.9 12.1 11.6 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.0 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.8 6.9 8.7 10.1 7.9 6.8 6.9 6.5 5.9 4.8 5.4 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.3 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.1 51.6 58.7 58.4 51.8 49.8 48.9 48.0 46.1 45.7 48.3 46.9 46.6 46.7 47.4 48.6 46.5 49.0 49.6 49.9 51.2 49.9 53.0 55.5 11.2 7.9 7.7 9.6 10.6 12.3 13.0 14.7 15.7 14.8 15.3 15.5 17.2 15.2 15.2 15.1 14.3 13.5 13.7 13.6 13.5 11.7 12.2 25.4 22.3 22.5 25.6 27.1 26.2 26.6 27.0 28.2 27.4 27.5 28.1 26.6 27.3 27.9 28.4 27.1 27.5 26.8 26.3 28.0 26.6 24.5 11.9 11.1 11.3 13.0 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.2 10.4 9.5 10.2 9.9 9.5 10.1 8.3 10.0 9.7 9.4 9.6 8.9 8.7 8.7 7.8 3,047 4,061 3,396 2,476 2,611 2,650 2,332 2,081 2,158 2,522 2,323 2,357 2,398 2,425 2,452 2,479 2,495 2,620 2,765 2,912 2,970 3,070 3,218 460 583 438 377 396 378 328 310 330 388 357 350 361 353 355 361 377 399 431 454 461 445 489 3,410 4,594 3,775 2,561 2,693 2,746 2,401 2,248 2,324 2,715 2,998 2,846 2,531 2,270 2,212 2,442 2,295 2,193 2,294 2,722 r 3,222 4,011 4,147 Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey fell 184,000 in February. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 110 AIL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 100 90 80 SERVICE-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 70 60 50 MANUFACT URING \ 20 40 18 GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES \ 30 20 bimlinii 1987 1988 1989 1990 UJiulmu 1 1 1 11 1 u in Minium |i 114 )|i i i |Vi i 1 1 il 1 1 Hi. — ' ~1_ \ — CONSTRlJCTION minium iinilitni I 1 ^ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 iiniliini 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 llf 1988 1989 1990 ' 1987 1991 il 1991 •SEASONAUV ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers; 1 seasonally adjusted] Goods-] reducing in dustries Period Total nonagri- M anufacturin g cultural employment Total 2 C on onstruction 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 r 91,156 89,566 25,497 23,813 4,188 3,905 90,200 94,496 97,519 99,525 102,200 105,536 108,413 110,321 23,334 24,727 24,859 24,558 24,708 25,173 25,326 25,001 1990: Jan Feb Mar Apr May.... June ... July.... Aug.... Sept.... Oct .... Nov ... Dec * .. 1991: Jan "... Feb".. 109,654 109,958 110,122 110,177 110,617 110,829 1M),740 110,613 110,612 110,432 110,165 110,004 109,771 109,587 25,188 25,339 25,259 25,180 25,191 25,162 25,105 25,013 24,931 24,777 24,511 24,416 24,184 24,086 1 Service-produ ing industr es Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Wholesale trade Retail trade 7,726 7,899 7,796 7,761 7,858 7,969 8,004 7,940 5,165 5,082 4,954 5,159 5,238 5,255 5,372 5,527 5,648 5,839 5,286 5,574 5,736 5,774 5,865 6,055 6,271 6,361 15,161 15,595 16,526 17,336 17,909 18,462 19,077 19,580 19,788 7,979 7,966 7,956 7,961 7,950 7,947 7,952 7,955 7,951 7,925 7,879 7,862 7,841 7,831 84,466 84,619 84,863 84,997 85,426 85,667 85,635 85,600 85,681 85,655 85,654 85,588 85,537 85,501 5,790. 5,804 5,808 5,809 5,833 5,846 5,841 5,846 5,870 5,870 5,866 5,882 5,884 5,848 6,356 6,357 6,361 6,363 6,369 6,383 6,374 6,376 6,370 6,355 6,343 6,331 6,297 6,274 19,807 19,758 19,764 19,778 19,795 19,822 19,851 19,846 19,844 19,792 19,739 19,670 19,687 19,618 8,089 7,767 3,948 4,383 4,673 4,816 4,967 5,110 5,200 5,204 12,082 11,014 10,707 11,479 11,464 11,203 11,167 11,381 11,422 11,122 5,294 5,368 5,313 5,256 5,286 5,270 5,229 5,194 5,176 5,093 5,029 4,983 4,833 4,860 19,171 19,244 19,217 19,190 19,167 19,148 19,131 19,084 19,019 18,951 18,744 18,693 18,614 18,487 11,192 11,278 11,261 11,229 11,217 11,201 11,179 11,129 11,068 11,026 10,865 10,831 10,773 10,656 Includes all hi] - and part-tintie wage and salary worke s in nonagricultural establ shments who received pay for am part of the lay period w ich includes the 12th of tt e month. Ex eludes proprietors, self-employed persons, don estic servant , and personnel of the Ar med Forces. Potal derived from this table not comparable Avith estimate of nonagric iltural emplo ment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which i ictude propri tors, self-em >loyed person s, and dome Stic servants; which count person s as employed when they are not at v.'ork because of industrial disputes, bad 14 Transportation and public utilities 65,659 65,753 66,866 69,769 72,660 74,967 77,492 80,363 83,087 85,320 18,781 18,434 19,378 19,260 18,965 19,024 19,350 19,426 19,062 20,170 Total 5,376 5,296 15,172 Finance, insurance, and real estate Govei nment Services Total Federal 16,031 15,837 15,869 16,024 16,394 16,693 17,010 17,386 17,769 18,291 2,772 2,739 2,774 5,689 5,955 6,283 6,547 6,649 6,724 6,832 18,619 19,036 19,694 20,797 21,999 23,053 24,235 25,669 27,096 28,209 6,794 6,817 6,821 6,823 6,838 6,844 6,842 6,852 6,851 6,843 6,833 6,829 6,820 6,810 27,721 27,842 27,950 27,969 28,094 28,225 28,287 28,387 28,440 28,475 28,548 28,573 28,619 28,647 17,998 18,041 18,159 18,255 18,497 18,547 18,440 18,293 18,306 18,320 18,325 18,303 18,280 18,304 3,000 3,005 3,089 3,151 3,346 3,338 3,164 3,045 2,999 2,983 2,961 2,943 2,928 2,933 5,298 5,341 5,468 2,807 2,875 2,899 2,943 2,971 2,988 3,085 weather etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; am which are based on a sa mple of the working age populatio n, whereas 1 le estimates n this table are based on reports from employing establish ments. 2 Incl udes mining, ot shown se] aratelv. Sourc e: Departmen of Labor, Id reau of Labo Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Aver age weekly 1 ours Average gross weekly earnings Average g oss hourly earr ngs Total jrivate nonagnc ultural ' Mamifa :turing Period nonagri- Total private Manufac- Total cultural i 1982 dollars 2 Manufac- $318.00 330.26 39.8 2.8 $7.25 $270.63 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.6 7.68 8.02 8.32 8.57 8.76 8.98 9.28 9.66 10.03 $7.99 8.49 8.83 9.19 9.54 9.73 9.91 10.19 10.49 10.84 $255.20 38.9 40.1 40.7 40.5 40,7 41.0 41.1 41.0 40,8 267.26 280.70 292.86 299.09 304.85 312.50 322.02 334.24 346.04 267.26 272.52 274.73 271.16 271.94 269.16 266.79 264.22 259.98 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec r 34.6 34.6 34.5 34.5 34.7 34.5 34.5 34.7 34.2 34.4 34.6 40.8 40.8 40.7 40.9 41.0 40.9 41.0 41.0 40.7 40.5 40.7 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.6 9.88 9.93 9.96 9.98 10.03 10.07 10.09 10.13 10.12 10.14 10.19 10.67 10.73 10.75 10.81 10.86 10.89 10.90 10.93 10.97 10.97 11.00 341.85 343.58 343.62 344.31 348.04 347.42 348.11 351.51 346.10 348.82 352.57 Jan ' Feb" 34.1 34.3 40.4 40.2 3.4 3.3 10.20 10.20 11.04 11.03 347.82 349.86 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991: Current dollars 35.2 34.8 35.0 35.2 34.9 34.8 34.8 34.7 34.6 34.5 1981 1982 1990: C urrent dollar 1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (on a 1982=-100 base). 2 3 Percent cha nge from a vear ear ler, total ate nonagricultural 3 Retail Construc- 1982 dollars Current dollars $399.26 $157.99 354.08 374.03 386.37 396.01 406.31 418.81 430.09 442.27 426.82 442.97 458.51 464.46 466.75 480.44 495.73 512.41 524.49 163.83 171.13 174.47 174.81 175.80 178.80 183.62 188.72 195.26 261.55 261.88 261.51 261.44 262.87 261.61 259.78 260.19 254.67 255.92 257.92 435.34 437.78 437.53 442.13 445.26 445.40 446.90 448.13 446.48 444.29 447.70 527.48 523.18 508.03 520.98 531.35 516.00 526.40 530.69 511.34 530.92 535.05 193.34 195.17 195.46 196.04 196.62 196.23 195.73 197.39 194.26 197.17 197.28 3.4 3.8 4.3 2.1 3.1 4.0 -1.2 -1.5 -1.6 -.1 -.0 -1.0 -1.7 -1.6 -3.8 -3.0 -2.0 253.51 254.81 446.02 443.41 515.04 533.76 195.39 197.46 2.8 2.4 -2.5 -2.5 8.5 4.7 -1.5 -1.2 2.0 5.0 4.3 2.1 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.8 3.5 .8 -1.3 .3 -1.0 -.9 -1.0 -1.6 3.9 3.7 2.8 4.0 4.5 Based on seasonally unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY Percent cl ange from Index (June 1989 = 100) 12 months earli r 3 months earlier Period Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits ' Total compensation Wages and Benefits ' Total compensa- Wages and salaries Benefits ' Not s easonally ad us ted 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1989: 1990: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 75.8 80.1 84.0 87.3 90.1 93.1 97.6 102.3 307.0 73.0 77.6 81.4 84.8 88.3 91.1 94.1 98.0 102.0 106.1 1988: Mar June Sept Dec 94.5 95.7 96.6 97.8 95.0 96.1 96.9 98.0 93.1 94.5 95.7 97.1 1989: Mar June Sept Dec 98.8 100.0 101.3 102.4 99.1 100.0 101.1 102.2 1990: Mar June Sept Dec 103.8 105.1 106.2 107.2 103.3 104.4 105.4 106.2 71.2 66.6 71.4 76.7 81.7 84.6 87.5 90.5 96.7 102.6 109.4 2.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 .6 .7 .6 1.0 1.1 .8 1.8 1.2 1.1 1.2 .6 .6 .6 1.0 .8 2.1 1.4 8.8 6.3 4.9 4.2 4.1 3.2 3.3 4.1 4.1 12.1 7.2 7.4 6.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 6.9 6.1 .7 1.3 1.3 .9 1.2 0.8 1.2 .8 1.1 2.4 1.5 1.3 1.5 3.8 4.5 4.4 4.8 3.3 3.8 3.7 4.1 5.9 6.4 6.8 6.9 98.1 99.8 101.5 103.1 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.1 .9 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.7 1.7 1.6 4.6 4.5 4.8 4.8 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.1 5.4 5.6 6.0 6.1 105.1 106.7 108.4 109.9 1.4 1.3 1.0 .9 1.1 1.1 1.0 .8 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.4 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.6 4.2 4.5 4.2 4.0 7.2 6.9 6.8 6.6 4.0 6.6 Not se asonally adju sted Seasonal! p adjusted 1 Employer costs for employee benefits. NOTE.—The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries. 9.9 6.5 5.7 4.9 3.9 3.2 3.3 4.8 4.8 4.6 1.3 1.4 .5 .6 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 Data exclude farm and household workers. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output p< r hour of all persons Period Compens ation per Hours of 2all persi ns Outf ut * Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector 99.2 100.7 100.0 102.3 104.9 107.1 109.5 110.7 113.2 112.6 111.9 100.6 103.2 105.3 108.0 109.4 112.0 113.2 112.9 113.6 113.1 113.0 113.0 112.6 111.9 111.7 111.9 112.1 112.1 99.9 100.9 100.0 102.9 105.1 106.5 108.7 109.8 112.5 111.7 110.8 100.4 103.8 105.4 107.1 108.4 110.9 112.2 112.0 112.8 112.9 112.1 112.0 111.7 111.0 110.7 110.7 110.9 111.0 101.1 103.2 100.0 104.2 113.0 117.7 121.3 126.4 133.0 135.8 136.1 99.5 107.6 114.5 119.3 122.2 129.4 131.2 132.6 133.8 134.5 135.6 135.9 136.1 135.5 136.0 136.4 136.5 135.7 101.7 103.4 100.0 105.0 113.7 118.1 121.6 126.8 134.0 136.7 137.0 99.3 108.7 115.1 119.6 122.4 129.7 131.6 133.4 134.8 136.0 136.4 136.8 137.1 136.3 136.8 137.2 137.4 136.5 101.9 102.5 100.0 101.8 107.6 109.9 110.8 114.1 117.5 120.5 121.6 98.9 104.3 108.7 110.5 111.7 115.6 115.8 117.5 117.8 118.8 120.0 120.2 120.9 121.0 121.7 121.9 121.8 121.1 hoi r 3 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real com pensation per hour * Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit lab or costs Implic t price defla tor 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 85.8 92.4 100.0 101.4 102.9 105.4 108.4 111.2 113.7 117.9 123.0 101.5 102.0 104.0 106.7 110.4 112.1 111.5 113.3 114.2 115.6 116.7 117.4 118.2 119.5 121.1 122.5 123.6 124.8 85.2 92.3 100.0 101.0 102.8 105.6 108.8 111.6 113.7 118.1 123.2 101.7 101.3 104.0 107.1 111.0 112.6 111.9 113.5 114.2 115.2 116.9 117.5 118.3 119.7 121.3 122.7 123.9 125.0 86.2 94.4 100.0 103.3 106.8 109.5 111.8 114.8 118.2 122.8 127.5 101.4 104.8 107.9 110.5 112.8 115.7 116.2 117.5 118.9 120.3 121.2 122.5 123.3 124.3 125.8 127.2 128.2 128.8 85.7 94.0 100.0 103.5 106.6 109.8 112.3 115.3 118.4 123.0 127.7 101.5 104.7 107.9 111.0 113.4 116.2 116.6 117.8 118.8 120.5 121.4 122.7 123.5 124.7 125.8 127.3 128.4 129.2 10.9 7.7 8.3 1.4 1.5 2.3 2.8 2.6 2.2 3.8 4.3 -2.0 6.5 3.1 5.0 3.8 2.5 2.8 4.6 5.4 4.7 3.7 3.8 11.0 8.3 8.4 1.0 1.8 2.8 3.0 2.5 1.9 3.9 4.3 -2.2 5.7 2.5 3.6 6.1 2.0 2.6 5.0 5.3 4.7 4.1 3.7 9.0 9.6 5.9 3.3 3.3 2.5 2.1 2.7 3.0 3.9 3.8 1.7 4.8 4.7 4.9 3.1 4.3 2.5 3.5 4.6 4.6 3.2 1.9 9.7 9.7 6.3 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.3 2.7 2.7 3.9 3.8 1.4 4.1 3.4 5.9 2.8 4.4 2.6 3.9 3.8 4.8 3.6 2.4 19f (2=100; ( [uarterly < ata seasoilally adjus ted 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990"* 1982: IV 1983: IV 1984: IV 1985: IV 1986: IV 1987: IV 1988: I n in IV 1989: I II Ill IV 1990: I n m IV*.. 101.8 102.5 100.0 102.0 108.1 110.9 111.9 115.5 119.1 122.3 123.6 98.9 104.7 109.2 111.7 112.9 117.0 117.3 119.1 119.5 120.5 121.7 122.2 122.7 122.8 123.7 123.9 123.9 123.0 85.1 93.0 100.0 103.8 108.0 112.8 118.7 123.1 128.6 132.9 137.7 102.1 105.3 109.5 115.2 120.8 125.5 126.3 127.9 129.7 130.8 131.8 132.7 133.1 133.8 135.3 137.0 138.6 139.8 85.1 93.1 100.0 104.0 108.1 112.5 118.2 122.4 127.8 131.9 136.5 102.1 105.2 109.6 114.6 120.3 124.8 125.5 127.1 128.8 130.0 131.0 131.6 132.1 132.9 134.2 135.8 137.4 138.7 99.7 98.8 100.0 100.6 100.4 101.2 104.5 104.5 104.9 103.4 101.7 100.6 100.5 100.4 102.0 105.5 105.0 ' 104.8 104.9 105.1 r 104.8 ' 104.4 103.5 ' 103.0 ' 102.5 * 101.8 r 102.2 101.7 100.8 99.6 98.8 100.0 100.7 100.4 100.9 104.1 104.0 104.3 102.7 100.8 100.6 100.4 100.4 101.5 105.1 104.4 r 104.2 104.3 r 104.3 104.2 r 103.8 ' 102.7 102.3 101.9 r 101.0 r !01.3 100.8 100.1 Pe rcent chan ge; quarte rly data a seasonall y adjusted annual rates 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990"* 1988: I n 1989: ffl IV I n m IV 1990: I n mr rv *.. -0.2 1.5 -.7 2.3 2.5 2.0 2.3 1.1 2.2 -.5 -.6 4.6 -1.1 2.5 -1.6 -.5 .1 -1.6 -2.3 -.9 .6 .9 -.3 -0.3 1.0 -.9 2.9 2.1 1.3 2.0 1.0 2.5 -.7 Q 4.7 -.5 2.8 .2 -2.7 -.3 -1.0 -2.5 — 1.3 .3 .6 .3 -1.1 2.1 -3.1 4.2 8.4 4.2 3.1 4.1 5.3 2.1 .3 5.7 4.6 3.5 2.0 3.5 .9 .6 -1.8 1.4 1.2 .5 -2.4 -1.2 1.7 -3.3 5.0 8.3 3.9 3.0 4.2 5.7 2.0 .2 5.9 5.6 4.1 3.6 1.2 1.3 .6 -2.1 1.4 1.2 .4 -2.6 -0.9 .6 -2.5 1.8 5.7 2.1 .8 3.0 3.0 2.6 .9 1.0 5.8 1.0 3.6 4.0 .8 2.2 A 2.3 .5 -.4 -2.2 -0.8 .7 -2.4 2.0 6.0 2.5 .9 3.2 3.1 r 2.7 i.o 1.1 6.1 1.3 3.4 4.0 1.6 1.6 .5 2.8 .9 -.2 -2.8 1 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1982 dollars. 2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed. 4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers. 16 10.6 9.3 7.5 3.8 4.1 4.4 5.2 3.7 4.5 3.3 3.6 2.5 5.3 5.6 3.4 3.3 2.6 1.1 2.2 4.5 5.4 4.6 3.6 10.6 9.4 7.4 4.0 3.9 4.1 5.1 3.6 4.4 3.2 3.5 2.4 5.1 5.3 3.8 3.3 1.7 1.6 2.3 3.9 5.0 4.7 4.0 -2.5 -1.0 1.3 .6 -.2 .8 3.2 .1 .4 -1.5 -1.7 r -.6 r .6 T A -.9 r -1.6 r -3.3 r -2.0 -1.8 r -2.7 r 1.4 r -2.1 -3.2 -2.5 -.8 1.2 .7 -.4 .5 3.2 -.1 .3 -1.5 -1.8 r -.7 r .5 M -.5 r -1.6 r -4.2 r -1.5 -1.6 r -3.2 r r i.o -2.0 -2.8 5 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. * Data do not reflect GNP revisions of March 27, 1991. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production and capacity utilization fell again in February. INDEX, 1987=100* (RATIO SCALE) IJU FINAL PFtODUCTS 125 INDEX, 1987 = 100* (RATIO SCALE) 115 110 TOTAL IN DUSTRIAL PRODUCTIC 3N 105 >—-1 100 95 -"•^ S r-S"-^-*^* N 120 ^_r\ ' 115 _ /^ no 90 Illllllllll ll|||llllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll / ^' /] BUSINE ss EQUIPM ENT /~^ CONSUMER \ GOODS k/ \ -•, »*" 105 -.••"•^"x \, /T. V 115 MANUFA CTURING -PRODUCT ION—^-= *^<~V^"^ y^ •~~ — J*~" 105 T- — y" DURABLE 100 )NDURABLE' no 95 P X PRODUC TION 110 r ^ j ~^ j*t J!*. " *~ / V ,*" }^* ^f f — ~«./ . MINING 90 ll|||llllll ll|||llllll 1988 1987 ,/ -•S •/ yv_/S/^**"* /X^^^-^v v Illllllllll 1989 •^/^"^ Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 88 -CAPACI1•Y UTILIZAT ON RATE (TOTAL 1 NDUSTRY)_ 86 UTILITIES R i * v DEFENS E AND SPA CE — EQUIPMENT PERCENT* ll||lllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 90 ""-._ VO Rfi ||||llll||| 115 h-UTILITIES AND MIN NG [ x S^~\ 7^~ 95 ^^ /y \.. r~~^\-~^v Rit \ j R? 80 Illllllllll Illllllllll 1990 1991 j-S [—"~ / y~1 78 ' 76 Illllllllll x^ \s~~^~\ \ V ^ 1987 Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll ||llllllll| 1991 1989 1988 1990 -SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: 8OARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] To tal Industry prot uction indexes , 1987 = 100 indu strial prodiiction Period Index, 1987 = 100 Percent change from year earlier Mining Total Durable 72.7 76.8 88.4 91.8 93.9 100.0 107.6 110.9 111.6 109.6 109.8 109.5 110.3 110.8 111.1 111.1 111.2 110.7 108.9 107.4 110.7 111.9 111.1 112.6 113.4 113 A 113.5 113.8 112.5 109.9 107.6 106.9 106.0 107.0 105.7 95.3 100.0 105.4 108.1 109.2 78.8 80.3 76.6 80.9 89.3 91.6 94.3 100.0 105.8 108.9 109.9 Novr Dec r 108.5 108.9 108.8 109.4 110.1 110.4 110.5 110.6 109.9 108.3 107.2 .8 1.1 .2 1.0 1.6 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.0 .2 -1.3 1991: Jan r Feb" 106.6 105.7 -.8 -2.6 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 r 1990: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct 1 Output as percent of rapacity. 75.7 77.4 Utilities Nondurable 83.1 84.5 82.5 87.0 90.8 91.5 94.9 100.0 103.6 106.4 107.8 -1.9 1.9 -4.4 3.7 9.3 1.7 1.0 4.9 5.4 2.6 1.0 84.1 85.7 81.9 84.9 92.8 94.4 1980 1981 1982 1983 Capacity utilization rate, p 3rcent l Manufacturing Total industry Manufacturing 109.0 101.0 100.0 101.8 100.5 102.5 95.9 94.3 91.8 93.6 97.0 99.5 96.3 100.0 104.4 107.1 108.0 80.3 79.2 81.4 84.0 84.2 83.0 78.8 72.8 74.9 80.4 79.5 79.0 81.4 83.9 83.9 82.3 108.3 107.2 107.5 107.4 107.6 108.1 108.1 108.0 108.4 107.7 107.2 101.0 101.1 102.9 102.2 102.2 104.0 102.4 103.9 102.6 103.3 103.2 104.0 106.2 106.7 107.1 109.7 109.7 111.4 110.3 109.2 106.9 108.5 83.3 83.4 83.2 83.4 83.8 83.8 83.7 83.6 83.0 81.6 80.5 83.0 83.0 82.5 82.9 83.1 83.1 82.9 82.8 82.2 80.7 79.4 106.8 106.5 102.5 103.3 107.6 104.1 79.9 79.1 78.8 78.0 110.0 114.3 109.3 104.8 111.9 82.1 80.9 75.0 75.8 81.1 80.2 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstent. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1987 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Produ cts Mate rials I'inal produc ts Internlediate pro lucts Ijquipment Ci nsumer gc ods Period DeTotal Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Total l ness space equipment Construction supplies Busi- Total Energy plies 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 ' 82.1 80.8 83.0 91.0 94.2 95.7 100.0 105.6 109.1 110.9 85.8 84.5 88.8 92.8 93.7 96.8 100.0 104.0 106.7 107.3 74.0 68.7 79.7 91.0 91.6 94.5 100.0 104.9 107.9 106.2 89.6 89.7 91.9 93.4 94.4 97.6 100.0 103.7 106.4 107.6 78.2 77.0 76.8 89.2 94.8 94.5 100.0 107.6 112.3 115.5 76.1 72.9 71.9 85.4 91.1 93.2 100.0 111.8 119.1 123.1 58.5 65.7 71.8 78.9 89.4 96.0 100.0 98.0 97.4 97.3 77.0 75.1 80.3 86.2 88.3 92.0 100.0 104.4 106.8 107.7 78.4 72.2 80.2 86.2 89.1 93.8 100.0 104.4 106.1 105.2 75.7 77.0 80.3 86.2 87.7 90.7 100.0 104.4 107.3 109.4 92.8 85.1 88.3 96.6 96.6 95.9 100.0 105.6 107.4 107.8 104.3 100.7 98.9 103.8 103.4 99.4 100.0 101.8 101.4 102.1 1990: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Novr Dec '. 109.7 110.7 110.4 111.2 111.7 111.7 111.9 112.6 112.3 110.2 109.2 107.0 107.5 107.2 107.4 107.8 107.5 107.8 108.7 108.6 106.5 105.5 106.2 110.8 107.3 109.3 112.1 108.3 107.4 110.4 106.9 99.4 96.0 107.2 106.6 107.1 106.9 106.6 107.3 107.9 108.2 109.1 108.5 108.1 113.3 114.9 114.7 116.2 116.8 117.2 117.2 117.8 117.0 115.1 113.9 120.1 122.2 121.6 123.5 124 .4 125.0 125.4 126.4 125.4 122.9 121.6 97.6 97.5 97.3 97.6 97.6 97.8 97.7 97.3 97.3 96.2 95.8 108.4 108.2 108.0 108.3 108.3 108.4 107.9 107.4 107.0 106.2 106.1 108.2 107.3 106.4 105.5 106.0 106.7 105.3 103.8 103.1 101.8 100.8 108.5 108.9 109.1 110.2 109.8 109.5 109.7 109.9 109.7 109.2 109.9 107.1 107.1 !07.,? 107.7 108.8 109.6 109.7 109.4 108.3 106.8 105.2 101.7 102.0 101.8 101.1 102.1 103.3 103.0 103.0 102.3 101.6 101.6 1991: Jan ' Feb" 108.8 108.2 105.4 104.6 96.9 94.8 107.7 107.3 113.3 112.7 121.2 120.4 94.5 94.4 104.9 104.1 98.6 97.5 109.3 108.7 104.5 103.4 100.8 100.2 1 Includes oil and gas well drilling and manufactured homes, not shown separately. [1987 — 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Durable m mufactures Primary metals Period Total Iron and steel No adurable manufacti ires Transp ortation equip ment Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery Total Motor vehicles and parts Lumber and products Appare! products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Foods 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 r 117.5 83.2 91.0 102.4 101.8 93.8 100.0 110.3 109.2 108.4 135.1 86.2 96.1 105.9 104.5 90.8 100.0 113.8 109.3 109.9 91.1 83.2 85.5 93.3 94.5 93.8 100.0 106.2 107.2 105.9 65,9 63.9 64.3 80.8 86.8 90.4 100.0 113.8 121.8 126.6 75.4 75.9 80.3 94.1 93.1 94.3 100.0 106.5 109.5 111.4 68.7 64.8 72.7 83.1 91.8 96.9 100.0 105.0 107.2 105.5 64.4 58.8 74.5 90.6 99.0 98.5 100.0 105.5 104.9 96.8 74.7 67.3 79.9 86.0 88.0 95.1 100.0 104.6 103.0 101.6 91.0 90.1 93.8 95.7 92.6 96.3 100.0 102.2 104.3 98.8 72.1 75.2 79.0 84.5 87.6 90.7 100.0 103.6 108.5 112.0 89.2 81.8 87.5 91.4 91.4 94.6 100.0 105.4 108.5 110.2 86.5 87.7 90.1 92.1 94.9 97.4 100.0 102.8 105.5 107.6 1990: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Novr Dec1: 107.9 105.4 106.4 106.2 109.5 110.3 114.6 111.6 108.6 109.1 104.0 110.6 106.1 106.7 105.5 110.3 110.6 118.3 113.9 110.3 112.6 107.0 105.6 105.5 105.0 107.1 106.7 107.7 107.9 106.8 106.4 104.3 101.8 124.2 125.2 125.7 126.9 127.5 128.3 128.8 128.5 128.1 126.3 125.0 111.0 112.3 111.3 112.4 112.8 112.2 112.5 112.5 110.8 110.4 108.7 103.5 107.9 105.1 109.0 111.0 109.3 107.9 111.1 109.2 100.1 96.6 94.1 103.5 95.8 104.0 108.0 102.7 101.0 107.5 103.8 85.8 78.5 104.3 105.0 103.3 101.7 102.0 103.6 100.5 100.3 98.2 95.5 93.3 102.1 99.8 98.7 99.2 99.3 99.2 98.8 98.4 97.2 95.5 94.7 112.1 111.4 112.0 112.8 112.0 111.4 110.9 111.6 112.9 112.4 113.3 110.5 109.5 110.3 109.2 110.3 110.4 111.1 110.9 110.7 110.0 108.9 107.4 107.1 107.0 106.8 106.1 107.1 107.7 107.6 108.8 109.6 109.1 1991: Jan ' Feb* 98.9 94.4 98.7 91.5 101.6 100.3 124.2 123.7 107.7 106.7 98.0 95.9 83.0 79.9 94.7 91.4 93.1 93.6 112.9 112.4 108.8 108.6 108.5 108.6 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 NEW CONSTRUCTION [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Constructio n contracts 3 Private Period Total new construction expenditures iential Total New housing units Total ' Commercial and industrial 2 Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1S82=100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) I illions of dollars 1981 267.7 255.7 290.9 340.7 368.7 398.2 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990" 410.2 422.1 432.1 434.3 203.0 99.2 192.6 84.7 125.5 153.8 158.5 187.1 194.7 198.1 196.6 187.1 227.5 270.5 290.9 313.6 319.6 327.1 333.5 324.6 69.4 57.0 94.6 113.8 114.7 133.2 139.9 138.9 139.2 129.8 64.7 63.1 63.5 100 100 124 70.2 77.8 84.6 90.6 95.0 98.6 109.7 136 150 159 165 167 172 154 107.9 112.5 109.9 106.0 109.8 111.5 105.7 112.8 106.4 111.9 113.8 111.3 104.7 r !69 r !59 r 48.7 55.0 58.7 53.8 49.2 48.1 48.0 49.7 48.5 48.5 49.2 51.5 53.9 68.6 82.7 78.0 76.5 79.8 85.5 83.6 Annual rates Annual rates 1990: Jan Feb Mar Apr May 446.0 455.6 457.3 444.7 443.8 441.1 June July 437.0 436.3 423.9 423.3 Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1991: Jan " Feb" 1 z 3 415.5 407.1 396.6 338.1 343.1 347.4 338.8 334.0 329.6 331.3 323.5 317.5 311.4 301.6 295.8 291.9 200.1 '140.0 203.0 206.9 200.2 144.6 145.3 140.0 136.6 130.5 129.2 127.0 123.3 121.4 117.4 114.5 107.7 196.1 189.5 187.1 184.4 179.7 176.8 169.5 165.5 161.3 52.9 51.9 53.3 53.0 53.4 54.3 54.7 55.0 55.8 55.0 55.2 52.4 53.6 85.0 88.2 87.2 85.6 84.5 85.8 89.4 84.1 82.0 79.6 76.9 77.8 77.0 !64 150 165 164 155 150 r !47 r !53 r !48 r !34 !34 r 133 Includes residential improvements, not shown separately. Includes hotels and motels. F.W. Dodge series. 919 690 756 955 1,097 1,016 1,019 973 961 747 871 809 818 768 782 694 624 653 693 639 660 555 602 658 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New pri\ ate homes New private housing units Period Units started, bj type of structure Total 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 s 1,084.2 1,062.2 1,703.0 1,749.5 1,741.8 1,805.4 1,620.5 1,488.1 1,376.1 1,193.1 1 unit 2-4 units 705.4 662.6 1,067.6 1,084.2 1,072.4 1,179.4 1,146.4 1,081.3 1,003.3 894.8 91.1 80.0 113.5 121.4 93.4 84.0 65.3 58.8 55.2 37.6 5 or more units 287.7 319.6 522.0 544.0 576.1 542.0 408.7 348.0 317.6 260.7 Units authorized 985.5 1,000.5 1,605.2 1,681.8 1,733.3 1,769.4 1,534.8 1,455.6 1,338.4 1,104.4 Units completed 1,265.7 1,005.5 1,390.3 1,652.2 1,703.3 1,756.4 1,668.8 1,529.8 1,422.8 ' 1,307.5 Homes sold 436 412 623 639 688 750 671 676 650 Homes for sale at end of period1 275 253 301 353 346 357 366 '368 r 363 r 535 319 627 365 366 363 363 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 2 5.0 5.3 5.7 5.9 6.5 7.3 7.7 7.7 r 7.4 7.2 Seasonal y adjusted annu al rates 1990: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec r 1991: Jan '. Feb" 1,543 1,459 1,298 1,217 ,208 ,187 ,155 ,131 ,106 1,026 1,130 971 850 989 1 Seasonally adjusted. 2 Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series earlier data. 1,078 1,127 988 901 897 890 876 835 858 839 769 751 652 771 53 41 35 51 38 41 31 30 35 22 54 17 28 49 I not comparable with 412 291 275 265 273 256 248 266 213 165 307 203 170 169 1,739 1,297 1,232 1,108 1,065 1,108 1,082 1,050 992 920 906 844 797 863 * ' ' ' ' ,504 ,332 ,371 ,310 ,351 T ,294 ' ,312 ' ,307 ' 1,314 r 1,275 r 1,246 1,151 1,096 r r 606 559 r 534 r 535 r 549 r 541 525 '504 r 465 '486 465 408 7.5 r 359 354 7.0 r 350 345 338 334 327 319 316 7.2 7.2 NOTE.—Beginning 1984, units authorized are for 17,000 permit-issuing places; for 1978-83 data are for 16,000 places. Seasonally adjusted housing completions and housing sales revised beginning 1988. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade In January, manufacturing and trade sales fell 1.2 percent and inventories rose $3.3 billion. In February, according to advance data, retail sales rose 0.8 percent, following a decline of 1.4 percent in January. (Series revised for retail sales and inventories.) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 260 800 700 ^»—•> ^ 240 - - ^^—^ t\ ^^1 ^"1. MANU FACTURINC3 AND TRAD E INVENTC)RIES s' -XRE1FAIL INVENTORIES ^ 180 600 - ^"**'*" .„--' 500 - ^ 160 -._--—'. 140 M/ ^NUFACTU ?ING AN D TRADE ! ALES .'" , . „-*•"•' - JETAIL SAL ES i 400 inn Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll - - RATIO* 1.80 300 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE 1.20 200 Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 1987 1988 1990 1989 1.00 1991 1987 1991 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE and Manufact uring trae e 1 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Sales Period Inventories 3 Sales2 Inventory-s ales ratio * Re tail Whol esale InvenTotal 2 Durable goods stores Inventories 3 Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores 61,101 64,939 69,377 73,075 75,738 80,457 r 85,332 90,797 96,039 134,493 147,712 167,748 181,773 186,587 208,112 219,791 238,159 242,563 61,469 69,025 79,250 88,464 90,197 105,738 112,254 120,663 120,629 73,024 78,687 88,498 93,309 96,390 102,374 107,537 117,496 121,934 93,775 94,816 94,847 94,366 94,417 95,924 95,991 97,284 97,962 97,771 98,559 97,348 235,725 234,711 235,591 235,914 237,711 237,445 239,657 242,893 243,217 244,901 244,550 242,563 117,421 117,185 117,743 117,589 118,485 118,830 120,165 123,271 123,559 124,048 122,947 120,629 "96,832 96,811 244,191 121,349 Nondurable goods stores Manufacturing Retail trade * Millions of dollars, seasonally Etdjusted 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 r 1990 ' 1990: Jan r Peb r Mar r. Apr '. May ' June ' July r Aug r Sept r Oct ' Nov ' Dec r. 348,754 369,136 408,578 419,283 425,371 451,933 r 490,422 522,608 540,838 574,516 591,265 646,072 657,753 657,482 704,515 754,267 797,769 813,484 96,290 100,324 113,393 114,626 116,151 124,254 135,176 145,683 151,963 529,296 536,671 539,818 534,540 539,924 543,152 540,912 552,367 548,168 552,010 544,146 530,645 798,838 796,727 796,698 799,117 803,296 799,397 805,408 810,193 813,512 816,857 818,633 813,484 151,678 151,620 152,383 151,458 152,302 153,549 152,333 155,586 152,365 152,824 150,519 149,435 1991: Jan" Feb" 524,286 816,833 145,219 1 2 3 4 See page 21 for manufacturing. Monthly average for year and total for month. End of period. Annual data are averages of monthly ratios. 20 89,114 128,196 97,570 130,906 143,557 107,316 148,484 114,642 154,713 120,860 165,271 128,509 180,313 ' 137,613 188,528 145,146 195,990 150,602 188,987 150,914 188,847 150,579 189,361 150,136 190,903 148,823 193,201 148,759 150,143 191,259 192,466 150,745 193,002 151,135 193,314 152,512 194,505 152,191 195,940 152,711 195,990 149,750 28,013 32,631 37,938 41,567 45,121 48,051 T 52,281 54,349 54,563 57,139 55,763 55,289 54,457 54,342 54,219 54,754 53,851 54,550 54,420 54,152 52,402 197,766 ' 147,633 148,869 r 50,801 52,058 118,304 117,526 117,848 118,325 119,226 118,615 119,492 119,622 119,658 120,853 121,603 121,934 1.67 1.56 1.53 1.56 1.55 1.51 1.49 1.50 1.49 1.51 1.48 1.48 1.49 1.49 1.47 1.49 .47 .48 .48 .50 .53 .49 .44 .49 .52 .56 .55 .55 .60 .59 .56 .56 1.57 1.59 1.60 1.58 1.59 1.61 1.59 1.61 1.60 1.62 122,842 1.56 1.65 Note.—Retail sales revised beginning 1988 and retail inventories revised beginning 1989. Manufacturing and trade aeries reflect those revisions. Wholesale and manufacturing series will be revised in the April 1991 issue of Economic Indicators. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In January, manufacturers' shipments and inventories were about unchanged while new and unfilled orders fell. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 280 440 —INVENT*DRIES 240 I-SHIPMENTS 200 360 n^ _-—— -1 TOTAL 160 DURABLE GOODS 120 - \ ____. _-—-—"" DUR/ kBLE GOOC)S NONDURABLE GOODS 80 -r~ 120 NONE URABLE G 3ODS 60 imilmn Illllllllll Illllllllll BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 280 240 NEW OR DERS Illllllllll Illllllllll llll|||llll Illllllllll Illllllllll 200 7—= TOTAL 160 DUR *BLE GOO RATIO* 2.20 >s ^L*"~-3 .V-"' , 170 .< •"" '"" ::-- -v- '— NOND URABLE &DODS INVENTC3RY-SHIPM ENTS RATIC5 _ _ 1.80 '" ^-—--. «•"». ^—. A. _ IN. . ~~*S ^ 1.40 Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 1987 1988 1989 1990 1,,,,, 1.20 111 1 1 | I\ \ 1 I 1987 1991 1989 1988 1990 council or ECONOMIC ADVISEDS * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Manilla•cturers' ship nents l 11 .anufacturers new orders i 2 Manufa 3turers' invefl tones Durabl e goods Period Durable goods Total 1991 Nondurable goods Durable goods Total Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, nondefense Nondurable goods Manufacturers' unfilled orders 2 Manufacturers' inventory — shipments ratio " Millions of do liars, seaso lally adjust ed 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 r 163,350 171,242 187,869 190,016 188,360 199,170 217,632 231,780 238,273 79,352 84,956 96,623 99,019 99,989 105,291 115,684 122,668 123,726 83,998 86,286 91,246 90,996 88,371 93,879 101,948 109,112 114,547 311,827 312,647 334,767 327,496 316,182 331,132 354,163 371,082 374,931 200,825 200,406 218,771 214,066 208,313 216,598 233,666 246,222 244,516 111,002 112,241 115,996 113,430 107,869 114,534 120,497 124,860 130,415 162,273 174,122 189,791 190,918 188,663 201,966 221,627 235,614 238,801 78,338 87,600 98,581 99,843 100,166 107,770 119,634 126,557 124,340 21,661 22,098 26,243 27,067 26,551 29,707 35,028 38,821 38,155 83,935 86,522 91,209 91,075 88,497 94,197 101,993 109,057 114,461 314,270 349,419 372,586 383,181 387,065 421,243 468,860 514,499 520,345 1.95 1.80 1.74 1.74 1.70 1.62 1.58 1.58 1.57 1990: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Oct Nov Dec r. 226,704 234,472 237,299 234,259 238,863 239,460 237,834 245,646 243,291 246,995 240,916 231,460 116,716 123,224 125,089 122,031 126,507 127,283 125,090 128,619 124,315 126,196 121,402 116,794 109,988 111,248 112,210. 112,228 112,356 112,177 112,744 117,027 118,976 120,799 119,514 114,666 374,126 373,169 371,746 372,300 372,384 370,693 373,285 374,298 376,981 377,451 378,143 374,931 248,273 247,095 245,435 246,609 246,530 244,902 246,456 246,653 246,926 246,818 247,800 244,516 125,853 126,074 126,311 125,691 125,854 125,791 126,829 127,645 130,055 130,633 130,343 130,415 227,572 231,759 241,071 236,026 241,102 236,578 240,238 244,355 243,903 250,117 235,724 234,601 117,909 120,782 128,872 123,609 128,737 124,692 128,094 126,979 124,972 129,458 116,322 119,877 38,347 36,094 40,889 36,573 35,928 36,192 39,840 35,871 38,293 41,633 35,763 42,111 109,663 110,977 112,199 112,417 112,365 111,886 112,144 117,376 118,931 120,659 119,402 114,724 515,367 512,654 516,426 518,193 520,432 517,550 519,954 518,663 519,275 522,397 517,205 520,345 1.65 1.59 1.57 1.59 1.56 1.55 1.57 1.52 1.55 1.53 1.57 1.62 1991: Jan" 231,434 118,295 113,139 374,876 244,499 130,377 230,601 38,197 112,829 519,512 1.62 June July Aug Sept 1 r Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales. 2 End of'period. 3 Annual data are averages of monthly ratios. r 117,772 r NOTE.—Data here are as published through March 5, 1991. Benchmark revisions will be published in the April 1991 issue of Economic Indicators. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In February, the producer price index for all finished goods fell 0.6 percent. Prices of finished consumer foods rose 0.2 percent while prices of other finished consumer goods fell 1.3 percent. Capital equipment prices rose 0.2 percent. INDEX, 1982 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1982= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 130 130 120 )120 110 110 100 100 CONSUMER GOODS EXCLUDING FOODS 90 U 1983 1984 1990 1991 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [1982=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Fin shed goods Internlediate ma terials F nished go ads excluding consumer foo ds Period 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990" 1990: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct r Nov Dec 1991: Jan Feb 1 Total finished goods 96.1 100.0 101.6 103.7 104.7 103.2 105.4 108.0 113.6 119.2 117.4 117.3 117.2 117.6 117.6 118.0 119.3 120.8 122.3 122.8 122.1 122.0 121.3 Consumer foods 97.8 100.0 101.0 105.4 104.6 107.3 109.5 112.6 118.7 124.4 124.8 124.2 123.4 123.9 123.7 124.3 125.0 124.4 125.1 125.4 124.8 124.4 124.7 Total Durable Nondurable Capital equipment 96.1 100.0 96.4 100.0 102.8 104.5 95.8 100.0 100.5 101.1 101.7 93.3 94.9 97.3 103.8 111.5 108.0 107.4 107.6 108.3 107.8 108.1 111.1 115.0 118.6 119.3 117.3 116.7 114.5 94.6 100.0 102.8 105.2 107.5 109.7 111.7 114.3 118.8 122.9 121.4 121.9 122.1 122.2 122.7 123.0 123.4 123.8 124.1 124.4 124.8 125.2 125.5 Total 95.6 100.0 101.8 103.2 104.6 101.9 104.0 106.5 111.8 117.4 115.0 114.9 115.1 115.5 115.6 115.9 117.5 119.6 121.4 122.0 121.2 121.2 120.2 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. 22 Total consumer goods Total Poods and feeds ' 96.6 100.0 101.3 98.6 100.0 104.6 100.0 100.6 103.1 102.7 99.1 101.5 107.1 112.0 114.5 112.7 112.7 112.8 112.9 112.8 112.8 114.3 116.1 117.9 118.0 117.1 116.5 115.7 103.6 105.7 97.3 96.2 99.2 109.5 113.8 113.4 112.6 113.0 114.0 115.1 114.4 114.4 114.2 113.1 113.0 111.7 111.9 110.5 112.3 finished Consumer g >ods 101.2 102.2 103.3 98.5 100.7 103.1 108.9 115.2 112.3 112.0 112.2 112.8 112.6 112.9 115.0 118.1 120.6 121.3 119.9 119.7 118.2 106.5 108.9 111.5 113.8 117.6 120.4 119.0 119.4 119.5 119.8 120.4 120.9 120.7 121.6 121.2 121.8 122.2 123.0 123.5 Cnade mater als 103.3 103.8 101.4 103.6 106.2 112.1 118.2 116.4 116.1 115.9 116.4 116.3 116.6 118.3 120.2 122.1 122.6 121.5 121.3 120.3 Other Total 98.2 100.0 100.5 103.0 103.0 99.3 101.7 106.9 111.9 114.5 112.7 112.6 112.8 112.8 112.7 112.7 114.3 116.3 118.2 118.4 117.4 116.9 115.9 103.0 100.0 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 101.3 103.5 95.8 87.7 93.7 96.0 103.1 108.9 107.2 105.4 102.8 103.1 100.6 101.0 110.2 115.6 125.4 117.7 111.2 114.1 104.8 Foodstuffs and feedstuffs 103.9 100.0 101.8 104.7 94.8 93.2 96.2 106.1 111.2 113.2 114.9 115.0 115.0 113.1 113.9 114.3 112.9 111.6 111.9 110.9 110.1 108.5 108.5 Other 101.8 100.0 100.7 102.2 96.9 81.6 87.9 85.5 93.4 101.3 97.6 94.8 90.8 92.3 88.0 88.4 103.6 112.8 127.9 116.5 106.8 112.1 98.3 CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In February, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted (0.1 percent not seasonally adjusted). The index was 5.3 percent above its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1982-84= 100 (RATIO SC ALE) INDE X, 1982-84=1 30 (RATIO SCA LE) 150 150 SE/iSONMLY ADJUS TED 140 140 130 130 ^ CONS UMER PRICES--ALL ITEMS S^ 120 120 \ ^-^"* 110 -^~ -"' 110 ^ _^-—1 ^-^ 100 100 •^^ ^ 90 90 80 iiMiJnm Illllllllll 1983 1984 mi| 1985 I l l l l l l l l l l Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 1986 1987 1990 1989 1988 SEE NOT6 ON TABIE BELOW SOURCE. DEPA.RTMEN OF LABOR i 80 1991 CaUUCtt.Of COUOfMC MWIStRS [1982-84—100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Hoi sing All it ems * T ansportat on All She Her Not Period seasonally adjust- ed (NSA) Season- HomeFood ers' Total ' ally adjust- Total ed Rel. imp.3... 100:0 16.2 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1990: Feb Mar Apr 90.9 96.5 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6 118.3 124.0 130.7 93.6 97.4 99.4 103.2 105.6 109.0 113.5 118.2 125.1 132.4 41.4 90.4 96.9 99.5 103.6 107.7 110.9 114.2 118.5 123.0 128.5 90.5 96.9 99.1 104.0 109.8 115.8 121.3 127.1 132.8 140.0 May... June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1991: Jan Feb 27.7 costs (Dec 1982 = 100) 7.9 owners' Maintenance costs and (Dee. 1982 = 100) repairs 19.5 Fuel Appar- and el and other utilities upkeep 7.3 86.4 94.9 100.2 104.8 17.8 93.2 97.0 99.3 103.7 106.4 102.3 105.4 108.7 114.1 120.5 4.0 93.7 97.4 99.9 102.8 106.1 110.6 114.6 116.9 119.2 121.0 4.1 108.5 102.8 99.4 97.9 98.7 77.1 80.2 80.9 88.5 101.2 6.4 82.9 92.5 100.6 106.8 113.5 122.0 130.1 138.6 149.3 162.8 8.2 48.0 97.7 99.2 99.9 100.9 101.6 88.2 88.6 89.3 94.3 102.1 88.3 95.1 100.0 105.0 109.0 112.7 117.0 121.9 127.3 133.5 MediTotal ' New cars Motor fuel cal care Ener- gy 2 0.2 103.0 108.6 115.4 121.9 102.5 107.3 113.1 119.4 128.1 133.6 138.9 146.7 124.8 131.1 137.3 144.6 ter, energy (NSA) 90.7 96.4 99.9 103.7 106.5 107.9 111.8 114.7 118.0 122.2 items less food, shel- 106.5 104.1 103.0 104.4 107.8 111.6 6.1 95.3 97.8 100.2 102.1 105.0 105.9 110.6 115.4 118.6 124.1 128.0 128.7 128.9 129.2 129.9 130.4 131.6 132.7 133.5 133.8 133.8 128.2 128.7 129.0 129.2 130.0 130.5 131.6 132.6 133.4 133.8 134.2 131.1 131.3 131.2 131.2 132.1 132.8 133.2 133.6 134.1 134.7 134.9 126.3 126.8 127.1 127.3 128.0 128.6 129.3 130.0 130.4 130.6 130.8 136.7 137.6 138.1 138.3 139.5 140.5 141.3 141.8 142.0 142.3 142.8 143.4 143.2 143.8 143.3 144.8 146.5 147.6 148.2 148.8 149.5 150.5 141.2 142.5 143.0 143.2 144.7 145.5 146.3 146.8 146.8 146.9 147.3 120.8 121.2 121.2 122.2 121.8 122.1 121.2 124.6 123.4 123.9 123.8 110.6 110.6 110.4 110.4 110.5 109.9 111.1 112.6 113.8 114.2 113.7 122.9 124.0 123.9 123.9 124.1 124.4 124.8 125.5 125.1 125.3 125.7 117.4 117.3 117.6 117. 6 118.1 118.4 120.7 123.4 125.8 126.5 126.9 121.9 120.6 120.6 120.6 120.6 120.5 120.9 121.1 121.2 121.5 122.0 92.8 91.7 92.2 91.8 93.3 93.2 101.2 110.2 118.0 118.5 117.7 157.4 158.5 159.8 161.0 162.1 163.5 165.0 166.1 167.5 168.7 170.1 97.5 96.8 96.8 96.5 97.1 96.8 101.0 106.4 110.9 111.4 110.9 131.4 132.0 132.4 132.8 133.2 133.8 134.4 135.0 135.5 136.0 136.5 134.6 134.8 134.8 135.1 135.7 135.4 131.9 132.5 143.9 144.6 153.0 154.2 147.9 148.4 124.1 125.1 115.5 115.1 126.9 128.9 125.4 124.0 123.6 124.2 110.0 102.0 171.2 172.4 108.2 103.9 137.6 138.8 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc. also included through 1982. 3 Relative importance, December 1990. NOTE.—Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs and therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods. Data beginning 1987 and 1988 calculated on a revised basis. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Cht nge from pr eceding peri d Change from 3 mont] s earlier, ann ual rate Change from 6 mont] s earlier, ann ual rate Consum r goods Consum r goods Consum r goods Period Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Total finished goods Excluding foods Foods Capital equipment Change from rear earlier. total finished goods NSA Cha nge, Dec. o Dec., N 5A 7.1 3.6 .6 1.7 1.8 -2.3 2.2 4.0 4.9 5.6 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990" 8.6 4.2 -.9 .8 2.1 -6.6 4.1 3.1 5.3 8.5 1.5 2.0 2.3 3.5 .6 2.8 o 5.7 5.2 2.5 9.2 3.9 2.0 1.8 2.7 2.1 1.3 3.6 3.8 3.4 9.2 4.1 1.6 2.1 1.0 -1.4 2.1 2.5 5.2 4.9 a ange, month to month -0.1 -.1 1 .3 0 .3 1.1 1.3 1.2 .4 -.6 1990: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec g O — .2 — .1 -.6 1991: Jan.... Feb 0.3 .4 .2 .1 .5 .6 -.5 .6 .2 -.5 -0.8 -.3 .2 .5 -.2 .3 1.9 2.7 2.1 .6 -1.2 1.0 -.5 -.6 .4 -.6 2.9 -1.6 2.9 3.6 2.3 2.6 1.3 1.3 9.4 5.9 -3.5 1.8 2.2 2.5 8.0 21.0 30.2 23.8 6.2 4.4 3.7 2.7 2.7 3.0 4.0 3.6 3.6 3.3 3.3 .3 .2 -1.0 -4.8 — 2.2 -2.2 -3.0 -9.8 3.6 3.6 .4 -1.3 .2 .2 .3 .3 .2 .2 .3 9.4 6.4 -1.0 .7 1.0 2.8 5.9 11.3 15.4 12.3 4.4 15.4 8.8 3.4 1.8 11.2 15.5 15.6 13.4 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.5 5.1 4.5 3.7 3.1 3.1 3.6 5.2 6.0 6.4 7.0 5.6 .2 -.5 12.4 5.6 3.6 3.4 3.7 3.2 10.4 9.7 5.9 7.0 5.7 4.2 4.9 3.7 .9 3.3 6.1 8.9 9.0 7.8 7.1 4.6 3.7 5.5 4.0 5.9 3.5 1.1 .3 .3 2.8 -.5 4.9 2.4 6.9 3.4 3.6 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Ap- Shelter Period All items * Food Total ' Total ' Benters' costs Adden dum: All ite us, percent Change (annul 1 rate) Tr ansportati on Housing Homeowners' costs Fuel and other utilities parel and upkeep MediTola] 1 New Motor cal care Ener2 gy All items less food, shelter, and energy From previter 3 From 3 months earlier From 6 months earlier From year earlier NSA change, I ecember to Dec smber, > SA 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 8.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 1.1 4.4 4.4 4.6 6.1 4.3 3.1 2.7 3.8 2.6 3.8 3.5 5.2 5.6 5.3 10.2 3.6 3.5 4.3 4.3 1.7 3.7 4.0 3.9 4.5 9.9 2.4 4.7 5.2 6.0 4.6 4.8 4.5 4.9 5.2 5.1 5.9 6.3 5.0 3.9 3.9 4.5 6.7 4.5 5.1 5.9 4.6 5.3 4.7 5.1 4.7 14.4 9.7 1.8 4.2 1.8 5.6 1.6 2.9 3.2 4.0 3.5 1.6 2.9 2.0 2.8 .9 4.8 4.7 1.0 5.1 10.9 1.8 3.9 3.1 2.6 5.9 6.1 3.0 4.0 10.4 6.1 6.8 7.7 5.8 6.9 8.5 9.6 11.9 1.3 -.5 .2 1.8 -19.7 8.2 .5 5.1 18.1 6.1 5.0 4.3 3.7 3.3 3.8 4.7 4.1 5.2 0.8 .7 .8 .8 .7 .9 .9 .7 .8 .7 .8 1.0 Y 0 .3 .6 .3 4.3 5.3 4.2 .5 — .4 0.8 .5 .3 .3 .3 .5 .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 .6 .7 -2.4 4.0 .8 .9 9.4 6.8 1.5 -6.5 3.4 -1.7 2.5 -2.4 3.4 3.1 5.9 -30.7 18.7 1.8 2.1 -2.1 6.8 2.3 36.5 1.4 12.5 11.0 0.1 -1.2 .5 6.4 10.3 9.4 6.2 3.2 4.3 3.6 1.9 3.6 4.1 4.8 5.4 Che nge, month to nlonth 1990: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 0.5 .4 .2 .2 .6 1991: Jan Feb .S .3 0.7 .2 -.1 0 .7 .5 .3 .3 .4 .4 .1 0.2 .4 .2 .2 .5 .5 .5 .5 .3 .2 .2 0.4 .7 .4 .1 .9 .7 .6 .4 .1 .2 .4 1.1 — .1 .4 .3 .3 1.2 .8 .4 .4 .5 .7 0.1 .9 .4 .1 1.0 .6 .5 .3 0 .1 .3 0.7 0 __ 2 0 .1 .5 1.1 1.4 1.1 .4 -.4 2.8 .9 .1 0 .2 .2 .3 .6 -.3 .2 .3 .4 .2 .6 -.2 .8 .5 .8 .5 1.7 .8 .4 .3 1.6 .3 1.0 1.6 .4 .8 .8 .6 11 i j 2 Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc,, also included through 1982. 24 0.3 .4 .3 1.9 2.2 1.9 .6 .3 0.3 -.2 0 0 0 — .1 .3 .2 .1 .2 .4 -1.2 — 1.1 1.3 .5 — .1 .3 0 A 1.6 -.1 8.6 8.9 7.1 .4 -.7 -6.5 -7.3 7.5 3.8 7.0 6.9 • the last month of the quarter. Quarterly changes are shown in Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 7.5 7.5 4.5 3.2 4.1 4.7 7.6 8.2 9.2 6.9 4.9 5.3 5.8 4.6 5.4 6.2 6.9 7.2 6.6 5.3 5.2 4.7 4.4 4.7 4.8 5.6 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.1 4.3 3.9 6.7 5.4 5.7 5.3 5.9 6.2 5.8 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers in February fell 0.7 percent from their January level. Prices paid by farmers in January were unchanged from their October level. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 180 180 160 160 TV PRICES PAID 140 140 -X 120 120 PRICES RECEIVED 100 100 80 80 Illllllllll RATIO-!/ Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll llllll Illllllllll RATION 140 80 60 1983 1/BATIO Of INDEX Of PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX Of PRICES PAID. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICUITURE COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1977 = 100; not seasonally adjusted] FVices paid by farmer•s Pri ces received by farm ers Period Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates Production items Ratio 2 134 121 128 138 120 107 106 126 134 128 143 145 141 146 136 138 146 150 160 171 150 159 161 164 162 159 162 170 178 184 151 158 159 161 156 150 152 160 167 172 148 153 152 155 151 144 148 157 165 171 92 84 84 87 79 77 78 82 83 82 133 129 131 134 130 130 125 123 120 124 121 169 171 170 173 173 173 174 173 171 166 164 (3) (3) Get Nov Dec 151 150 151 154 152 152 150 148 146 145 143 (3) (3) 171 (3) (3) 171 (3) (3) 174 (3) (3) 170 (3) (3) 170 (3) (3) 174 (3> (3) 83 83 83 84 83 83 82 80 78 TO 76 Jan Feb 145 144 123 122 166 166 173 (3) 78 77 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept 1991: Livestock and products 139 133 135 142 128 123 127 138 147 150 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1990: All farm products All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates ' 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. See also footnote 3. 3 Beginning March 1986, prices paid by farmers are available only for first month in quarter, and for each month the received/paid ratio is based on latest data available. 183 (3) (3) 184 (3) (3) 187 (3) (3) 187 (3) (3) (3) 174 (3) NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1977 = 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES In February, growth accelerated in both M2 and M3. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 4,800 4,400 4,000 3,600 4,800 4,400 4,000 3,600 -M3 3,200 3,200 2,800 2,800 M2 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 800 800 600 mill i 1983 t984 1986 1985 1988 1987 1990 1989 • AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1991 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Ml Period M2 Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OCDs) Ml plus overnight KPs and MMMF balances (general purpose and broker/dealer), MMDAs, and savings and small time deposits MS L Debt M2 plus large time deposits, term RPs, term Eurodollars, and institution-only MMMF balances M3 plus other liquid assets Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors (monthly average) * 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1989: 1990: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 436.4 474.4 521.2 552.2 619.9 724.3 749.7 786.4 793.6 825.4 1,793.3 1,952.9 2,186.3 2,374.7 2,569.7 2,811.6 2,910.1 3,069.9 3,223.1 3,330.5 2,234.1 2,441.7 2,693.3 2,986.2 3,201.6 3,492.6 3,677.4 3,919.1 4,055.2 r 4,113.1 2,596.7 2,851.4 3,154.6 3,527.5 3,828.9 4,133.2 4,337.0 4,676.0 4,889.9 r 4,964. 3 4,292.1 4,685.9 5,212.6 5,961.9 6,773.5 7,636.2 8,345.1 9,107.6 9,790.4 T 10,450.0 1990: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dee 795.4 801.1 804.7 807.7 807.5 811.5 810.7 816.5 821.8 821.2 823.3 825.4 3,233.6 3,255.0 3,269.6 3,279.9 3,282.8 3,290.6 3,295.4 3,309.4 3,321.3 3,325.2 3,325.8 3,330.5 4,061.4 4,073.1 4,077.2 4,082.7 4,082.7 4,085.8 4,089.2 4,103.1 4,108.3 4,111.1 r 4,110.7 r 4,113.1 4,895.3 4,902.9 4,914.6 4,920.5 4,903.2 4,922.8 r 4,926.9 r 4,934.1 ' 4,955.6 r 4,956.2 r 4,960.7 r 4,964.3 r 9,833.5 r 9,895.4 9,965.8 ' 10,023. 3 ' 10,066.6 ' 10,122.2 ' 10,182.7 ' 10,254.3 ' 10,312.8 ' 10,353.1 ' 10,405.9 ' 10, 450.0 1991: Jan Feb" 826.7 836.4 4,973.6 ' 10,490.4 r 3,333.4 3,357.3 1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earli- 26 r 4,124.2 4,160.6 r Pern nt change from yeai or 6 months earlier 2 Ml 6.8 8.7 9.9 5.9 12.3 16.8 3.5 4.9 .9 4.0 4.1 5.4 5.9 5.0 4.7 4.5 3.8 3.8 4.3 3.3 3.9 3.4 3.9 4.9 er at a simple annual rate. NOTE.—See p. 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. M2 M3 10.0 12.4 8.9 9.3 12.0 10.3 10.9 8.6 8.2 9.4 3.5 5.5 5.0 3.3 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.1 5.0 4.2 3.8 3.3 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.9 7.2 9.1 5.3 6.6 3.5 1.4 2.8 3.0 r r 9.9 9.2 11.2 14.4 13.6 12.7 9.3 9.1 7.5 r 6.7 r 6.9 r 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 6.8 '7.0 6.9 r 6.5 r 6.8 r 7.1 r 7.3 '7.0 r 6.6 r 6.7 r 6.5 1.7 6.0 2.9 2.7 r 2.1 1.5 1.4 '1.5 r Debt 2.8 r COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Period Currency Demand deposits Other checkable deposits (OCDs) Overnight repurchase agreements (RPs), net, plus overnight Eurodollars Money market mutua fund balan ces l General purpose and broker/ dealer Institution only Money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) Small denomination time deposits 2 Savings deposits Large denomination time deposits 2 Term repurchase agreements (RPs) Term Eurodollars (net) NSA NSA NSA Dec Dec Dee Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 122.6 132.5 146.2 156.0 167.8 180.7 196.9 212.0 222.2 246.4 231.3 234.0 238.5 243.9 266.6 301.9 286.5 286.3 278.7 276.9 78.2 103.5 131.6 147.1 179.5 235.3 259.3 280.7 285.2 293.7 36.6 39.9 55.6 60.6 73.5 82.3 83.2 83.4 77.4 73.9 150.6 185.2 138.8 167.9 176.7 208.3 221.7 241.1 313.6 347.7 1990: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 224.5 226.6 228.4 230.3 231.9 233.7 235.7 238.4 241.5 243.9 245.0 277.6 279.4 278.9 278.1 275.8 276.3 275.6 278.0 279.1 277.1 277.2 276.9 285.8 287.5 289.8 291.7 292.0 293.7 291.7 292.1 293.0 291.8 292.8 293.7 81.5 82.4 81.9 79.4 83.2 82.4 1991: Jan Feb" 251.6 272.9 255.1 276.2 293.9 296.8 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1989: 1990: 246.4 1 Data prior to 1983 are not seasonally adjusted. 2 Small denomination and large denomination depo $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. Shortterm Treasury securities Bankers' acceptances Commercial paper 63.9 83.8 88.9 86.9 101.9 125.7 0.0 343.9 43.2 356.8 379.2 305.5 418.2 286.5 514.5 300.4 572.3 368.3 524.9 412.0 501.4 424.4 486.1 404.1 505.9 r410.7 823.2 850.9 784.1 887.7 883.4 855.5 917.7 1,031.8 1,145.9 1,164.9 303.0 327.3 327.7 417.7 437.3 439.9 489.2 542.3 563.5 r 507.1 35.3 33.4 49.9 57.6 62.4 80.5 106.1 121.8 98.8 90.2 67.5 81.7 91.5 82.9 76.5 83.8 91.0 106.0 81.0 r 69.8 67.8 68.0 71.1 74.2 79.5 91.8 100.6 109.3 117.5 126.0 149.4 183.6 212.0 260.8 298.2 280.2 253.5 270.6 327.4 r 331.9 40.0 44.5 45.0 45.4 42.0 37.1 44.5 40.1 40.7 r 34.7 105.3 113.7 133.2 160.8 207.6 231.4 261.0 336.8 349.2 r 358.8 82.6 81.5 83.5 77.7 73.9 318.4 .324.2 325.9 327.0 325.3 327.5 329.2 335.8 339.2 341.7 343.0 347.7 102.5 103.4 105.2 106.9 107.6 108.1 109.8 114.0 116.2 119.6 120.5 125.7 488.2 406.0 491.8 408.7 495.7 410.2 499.3 411.5 500.5 411.3 502.3 411.8 503.4 412.7 505.9 412.7 507.4 412.3 506.7 411.5 506.8 411.1 505.9 r410.7 1,146.5 1,146.8 1,149.9 1,152.2 1,153.5 1,154.6 1,156.8 1,158.3 1,159.9 1,162.2 1,162.9 1,164.9 560.0 554.9 549.3 543.7 540.5 538.0 535.0 529.2 521.9 515.1 512.5 r 507.1 97.5 100.5 98.4 98.2 99.3 102.2 100.5 102.0 98.3 95.6 95.7 90.2 74.2 68.4 66.7 65.3 67.1 64.4 65.1 68.2 69.4 71.1 r 69.6 r 69.8 117.9 330.7 118.4 327.3 119.2 336.9 119.9 329.9 120.7 315.4 121.4 331.7 122.2 r334.3 123.0 r329.8 123.8 r333.8 124.5 ' 330.4 125.2 r332.9 126.0 r331.9 40.3 38.5 37.2 36.0 35.4 34.7 33.0 32.3 31.8 32.6 34.0 r 34.7 345.0 345.6 344.1 351.9 349.1 349.1 348.2 345.9 357.9 357.6 357.9 ' 358.8 71.5 71.0 356.3 360.5 130.1 139.3 505.1 511.4 l , 163.7 1,162.6 r r r 126.7 35.9 353.6 84.0 r Savings bonds 38.0 51.1 42.8 62.1 are those issued in amounts of le i than 412.0 415.5 r 511.5 515.1 88.5 87.0 69.3 709 333.1 NOTE.—Travelers checks of nonbank issuers are a component of money stock but art not shown here. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE [Averages of daily figures 1; millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] A djusted for ch anges in resei•ve requiremer ts Borro wings of dep ository instituti ons from the Federal IDeserve (NSj!0 Re serves of depo sitory institut ons Period Total Nonborrowed Nonborrowed plus extended credit Required Monetary base Total Seasonal Extended credit Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 33,401 35,315 37,388 39,184 42,235 48,373 58,023 58,593 60,593 60,033 60,526 31,711 34,679 36,754 38,410 39,049 47,055 57,197 57,815 58,877 59,767 60,200 31,714 34,827 36,940 38,412 41,653 47,554 57,499 58,298 60,121 59,787 60,223 32,887 34,996 36,888 38,623 41,380 47,336 56,653 57,546 59,545 59,110 58,861 152,525 160,936 172,947 188,275 201,673 219,350 241,427 258,055 275,238 284,946 309,729 1,690 636 634 774 3,186 1,318 827 777 1,716 265 326 116 54 33 96 113 56 38 93 130 84 76 3 148 186 2 2,604 499 303 483 1990: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 59,896 60,215 60,297 60,275 59,783 59,732 59,322 59,746 60,082 59,609 59,763 60,526 59,456 58,768 58,173 58,647 58,448 58,850 58,565 58,819 59,457 59,199 59,532 60,200 59,482 59,302 60,123 60,051 59,324 59,196 58,845 58,947 59,464 59,217 59,557 60,223 58,880 59,227 59,436 59,379 58,820 58,958 58,460 58,879 59,173 58,763 58,816 58,861 287,420 289,583 291,620 293,503 294,628 296,467 298,012 301,079 304,465 306,381 307,756 309,729 440 1,448 1,628 1,335 881 757 927 624 410 230 326 47 51 78 122 244 311 389 430 418 335 162 76 26 535 1,950 1,403 875 346 280 127 6 18 24 23 1991: Jan r. Feb" 60,838 61,336 60,304 61,084 60,331 61,118 58,670 59,525 314,472 318,772 534 252 33 37 27 34 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1989: 1990: 1 Data are prorated averages of biweekly (maintenance period) averages of daily figures. 2,124 1,244 20 23 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK LOANS AND SECURITIES Total commercial bank loans and leases fell 0.2 percent in January. Commercial and industrial loans fell 0.6 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,800 ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 2,400 2,800 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 LOANS AND LEASES 1,200 1,200 800 800 400 400 U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES V-l OTHER SECURITIES l\ 200 200 160 160 ii 111 him 120 1983 1984 120 1985 1987 1986 1989 1988 1990 1991 - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted *] Adl comme cial ban ks Loans an [ leases Period 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1989: 1990: 1990: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dee Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Get Nov Dec 1991: Jan".... Total loans and securities 2 U.S. Government securities Other securities 1,307.2 1,400.5 1,552.1 1,722.2 179.3 201.7 259.2 260.2 1,909.6 2,093.5 2,238.9 2,421.7 2,589.0 2,723.6 2,600.0 2,615.1 2,633.2 2,648.1 2,655.4 2,670.1 2,683.0 2,704.9 2,708.0 2,713.6 2,716.6 2,723.6 2,721.2 270.9 310.1 335.9 363.8 399.3 454.2 404.9 413.8 420.3 426.4 430.3 438.4 442.8 445.7 450.1 453.1 454.0 454.2 454.1 160.5 164.8 169.1 140.9 179.0 193.9 193.5 192.1 180.8 175.6 180.6 180.6 180.4 180.2 178.2 177.5 177.3 178.8 178.8 177.8 175.9 175.6 177.7 Total * 967.5 1,034.0 1,123.8 1,321.1 1,459.8 1,589.5 1,709.5 1,865.8 2,008.9 2,093.8 2,014.5 2,020.7 2,032.5 2,041.5 2,046.9 2,054.2 2,062.9 2,080.4 2,079.0 2,082.7 2,086.7 2,093.8 2,089.4 Commercial and industrial 355.4 392.5 414.2 473.2 500.3 537.2 567.6 606.6 641.3 648.1 639.4 640.3 643.5 645.9 644.3 645.3 644.4 645.1 644.7 643.7 646.5 648.1 644.3 N nn onReal estate Individual Security 284.1 299.9 331.0 376.5 426.0 494.2 587.2 671.5 760.6 836.5 766.1 774.9 782.7 790.8 798.9 805.9 814.5 818.0 822.5 827.7 832.0 836.5 837.3 182.5 188.2 212.9 253.8 294.6 315.2 328.2 354.7 375.5 378.9 377.6 379.2 379.4 377.8 378.4 377.6 376.4 378.2 378.6 379.7 378.7 378.9 375.9 21.4 25.3 28.0 34.5 43.1 40.4 34.8 1 Data are prorated averages of Wednesday figures for domestically chartered banks and averages of month-end data for foreign-related institutions. Data beginning January 1984 are not strictly comparable with data for earlier periods, largely because beginning January 1984 certain obligations of States and political subdivisions are included in loans rather than in other securities. 28 39.9 38.3 40.6 39.4 38.3 37.0 36.8 35.5 35.0 38.7 44.6 41.3 40.5 39.6 40.6 43.2 barus financial institutions 29.9 31.2 30.4 31.3 32.4 34.9 31.8 29.9 32.7 34.9 32.7 32.9 33.7 34.0 34.1 34.4 34.7 35.0 35.3 35.2 35.0 34.9 34.2 Agricultural QfnfA oiate and political subdivisions 33.1 36.2 0.0 .0 39.2 40.1 36.1 31.5 29.4 29.8 30.7 33.0 31.0 30.8 30.8 30.8 31.0 31.1 31.3 31.5 31.8 32.2 32.5 33.0 33.6 .0 46.1 56.8 58.5 52.6 45.5 40.0 34.2 38.7 39.1 38.6 38.2 37.9 37.3 36.4 35.8 35.2 35.1 34.8 34.2 33.5 Foreign banks 18.1 14.6 13.4 11.6 9.9 10.3 7.9 7.9 8.6 7.4 8.2 7.9 8.3 8.6 8.7 7.4 7.0 7.9 8.1 9.0 8.2 7.4 6.6 2 Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Foreign official institutions Lease financing receivables 7.2 12.7 5.9 9.4 8.4 6.3 6.3 5.8 5.1 3.7 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.0 13.3 13.7 16.0 19.0 22.3 24.5 29.2 31.8 32.7 32.1 32.1 32.4 32.4 32.6 32.4 32.6 32.7 32.8 33.3 32.9 32.7 32.4 Other 23.1 26.9 31.8 29.9 35.3 38.6 39.8 45.7 45.8 44.3 45.9 41.8 43.0 42.8 42.3 44.5 43.6 48.2 45.4 43.2 43.2 44.3 45.4 SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses External Period Total Internal C edit market fu nds 1 Total 241.9 285.2 335.9 58.9 131.7 Loans and short-term paper Securities and mortgages Total 48.5 76.5 91.9 49.8 124.7 48.2 55.1 35.4 34.6 6.2 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990" 300.8 416.9 491.4 455.7 524.1 493.7 548.2 512.7 470.5 351.8 344.3 372.4 391.4 380.0 367.7 155.5 103.9 179.8 121.3 156.8 132.1 102.8 1989: I II Ill IV 517.4 601.2 459.2 473.0 379.9 379.7 385.5 374.9 137.5 221.5 73.7 98.1 18.0 118.7 92.5 1.0 3.8 85.2 -5.6 370.6 374.7 366.4 358.9 112.1 127.6 108.8 62.5 77.8 47.8 24.1 -11.2 -14.3 28.3 -22.6 1982 1983 r r 1990: l II r 482.7 502.3 475.2 421.4 m. IV. 10.4 55.2 63.7 54.1 55.1 73.1 101.6 91.3 68.2 303.1 392.6 474.9 425.1 481.2 466.6 494.6 488A 479.1 256.1 270.5 369.7 341.2 330.4 354.1 378.3 382.2 366.3 122.1 105.2 83.9 150.8 112.5 116.3 106.2 112.8 110.5 115.6 86.2 484.2 560.0 444.4 465.3 377.4 388.3 385.1 378.2 106.8 171.7 59.3 87.1 33.2 41.2 14.9 9.4 119.5 102.7 72.6 94.2 92.1 19.5 46.7 -15.9 34.5 79.8 84.9 73.7 496.9 489.7 500.5 429.3 346.9 381.2 384.0 353.1 150.0 108.5 116.5 76.2 -14.2 12.6 -25.2 -7.9 1.0 3.1 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained abroad. 2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. Discrepancy (sources less uses) 54.7 35.5 105.5 56.0 64.2 29.7 70.5 80.4 35.6 41.0 13.6 -6.2 60.5 18.5 15.4 -45.0 4.7 Other 2 Increase in financial assets Capital expenditures 3 Total 47.0 -2.3 24.3 16.5 30.6 43.0 27.1 53.5 24.2 -8.7 7.7 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Net change in in stallment eredit outstanditig' Ins ;allment credit outstanding (end of perio i) Period Total Automobile Revolving Mobile home Other Automobile Total Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 2 Decr 311,259 325,805 368,966 442,602 518,252 573,017 610,468 664,701 716,624 739,014 119,008 125,945 143,560 173,564 210,187 247,428 265,851 284,556 290,770 285,336 61,070 66,454 79,088 100,280 121,816 135,851 153,078 174,057 197,110 218,235 20,058 22,064 23,562 25,861 26,850 27,096 25,920 25,201 22,343 21,816 111,124 110,802 122,756 142,897 159,400 162,642 165,620 180,887 206,401 213,628 13,105 14,546 43,161 73,636 75,650 54,765 37,451 54,233 1990: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec r 717,829 717,869 720,445 720,835 724,485 724,601 729,329 732,385 735,222 736,595 739,357 739,014 290,904 289,629 290,932 288,936 288,931 287,168 286,791 285,283 285,261 284,402 284,483 285,336 199,146 199,927 202,263 203,965 207,153 208,362 212,138 214,492 216,804 218,381 219,757 218,235 22,604 22,633 22,708 22,702 22,815 22,733 22,795 22,976 22,672 22,491 22,518 21,816 205,175 205,680 204,543 205,232 205,585 206,338 207,605 209,635 210,484 211,320 212,599 213,628 4,728 3,056 2,837 1,372 2,762 -342 1991: Jan * 736,572 283,383 219,502 22,684 211,002 -2,443 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1989: 1990: 1 For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month. 2 Data newlv available in January 1989 result in breaks in many series between December 1988 and subsequent months. 3 7,017 6,937 17,615 30,004 36,623 37,241 18,423 18,705 3 Revolving 5,959 5,384 12,634 21,192 21,536 14,035 17,227 20,979 3 ( ) ( ) ( ) 22,390 -5,434 21,125 1,205 134 2,036 40 781 - 1,193 2,546 -322 11,954 20,141 16,503 3,242 2,978 15,267 958 2,299 989 246 -1,176 -719 (3) 527 81 853 -1,522 -1,953 1,267 868 390 3,650 5 116 -1,764 -377 -1,508 2,336 1,702 3,188 1,208 3,776 2,354 2,312 1,577 1,375 -21 -859 Other 1,322 261 29 74 6 113 -83 63 180 -303 -182 27 -702 -1,275 1,303 -1,996 2,576 Mobile home (3) 7,227 -1,226 -2,626 505 -1,137 689 353 753 1,267 2,030 849 836 1,279 1,029 3 Because of breaks in series, net change not available. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS In March, short-term interest rates fell and long-term rates rose. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] U.S. 1reasury security yields Period 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1990: 3-month bills (new issues) 1 14.029 10.686 8.63 9.58 7.48 5.98 5.82 6.69 8.12 7.51 Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1991: Jan Feb Mar" Week ended: 1991: Mar 2 9 16 23 30" 1 Constant nlaturities 3-year 14.44 12.92 10.45 11.89 9.64 7.06 7.68 8.26 8.55 8.26 2 10-year 13.91 13.00 11.10 12.44 10.62 7.68 8.39 8.85 8.49 8.55 6.30 5.95 5.91 8.63 8.78 8.69 8.40 8.26 8.22 8.27 8.07 7.74 7.47 7.38 7.08 7.35 8.59 8.79 8.76 8.48 8.47 8.75 8.89 8.72 8.39 8.08 8.09 7.85 8.11 6.01 6.09 5.85 5.83 5.86 7.27 7.36 7.26 7.42 7.36 8.00 8.10 8.06 8.18 8.10 7.87 7.78 7.78 7.74 7.66 7.44 7.38 7.19 7.07 6.81 High-grade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor's) 3 30 Prime commercial paper, 6 months 11.23 11.57 9.47 10.15 9.18 7.38 7.73 7.76 7.24 7.25 14.17 13.79 12.04 12.71 11.37 9.02 9.38 9.71 9.26 9.32 11.89 8.89 10.16 8.01 6.39 6.85 7.68 8.80 7.95 7.29 7.36 7.34 7.22 7.15 7.31 7.40 7.40 7.10 7.04 9.37 9.46 9.47 9.26 9.24 9.41 9.56 9.53 9.30 9.05 9.04 8.83 8.93 8.85 8.92 8.91 8.97 8.92 r Bank-discount basii Yields on the morf ; actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury De~ partment. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Average effective rate (or year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 2 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) 7.05 6.90 7.07 7.06 6.97 7.04 7.13 7.13 r 14.76 Discount rate (N.Y. F.R. Bank) 4 Prime rate charged by banks 4 13.42 11.02 8.50 8.80 7.69 18.87 14.86 6.33 5.66 6.20 6.93 6.98 10.79 12.04 9.93 8.33 8.21 9.32 10.87 10.01 8.23 8.29 8.23 8.06 7.90 7.77 7.83 7.81 7.74 7.49 7.02 6.41 6.36 7.00-7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-6.50 6.50-6.50 6.00-6.00 6.00 10.00 10.00 10.00-10.00 10.00-10.00 10.00-10.00 10.00-10.00 10.00-10.00 10.00-10.00 10.00-10.00 10.00-10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00-9.50 9.50 9.00 9.00- 6.51 6.54 6.28 6.28 6.27 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00- 9.00-9.00 9.00-9.00 9.00-9.00 9.00-9.00 9.00- New-home mortgage yields (FHFB) 5 14.70 15.14 12.57 12.38 11.55 10.17 9.31 9.19 10.13 10.05 10.03 10.17 10.28 10.13 10.08 10.11 9.90 9.98 9.90 9.76 9.65 9.57 5 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Housing Finance Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices rose in March. INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965=50 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965=50 (RATIO SCALE) 24U 24U 200 180 ^/ s*-S\ /-*J-~~S^ -4^ \ \ ^ X-COMPOSITi. STOCK PRICE iwnpx ^^-v_ / (NYSE) 160 140 170 ion 200 180 / S—•""]|Sx-^\ ^/ 160 140 \20 100 /^^^ -"^H ^-W 80 80 (SO ISO 40 | | 1 1 1 1 1 I t 1 1t 1983 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1p 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 I 1984 1985 1 I 1I 11t 1I 1 1 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 40 1991 PER(:ENT PERCE"NT 20 EARNIN OS-PRICE RAT O ON COMMC3N STOCKS 15 15 (S&P) / ——• / ^ 0 i i i i i i 1983 1984 ^ 1 1 — xH 1 1 1987 1985 - ^~~l 1 1 1 1988 1 1 1989 1 1 1 1990 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION 1 Period 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1990: Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1991: Jan Feb Mar" Week ended: 1991: Mar 2 9 16 23 30" Transportation Utility Finance Dow-Jones industrial average 3 Standard & Poor's index (194143=10) 4 Dividendprice ratio 74.02 68.93 92.63 92.46 108.09 136.00 161.70 149.91 180.02 183.46 186.26 185.61 191.35 196.68 196.61 181.45 173.22 168.05 172.21 179.57 177.95 197.75 203.57 85.44 78.18 107.45 108.01 123.79 155.85 195.31 180.95 216.23 225.78 226.14 226.86 234.85 242.42 245.86 226.73 216.81 208.58 212.81 221.88 220.69 246.74 255.36 72.61 60.41 89.36 85.63 104.11 119.87 140.39 134.12 175.28 158.62 175.08 173.55 173.53 177.37 173.18 147.41 136.95 131.90 132.96 141.31 145.89 166.06 166.26 38.91 39.75 47.00 46.44 56.75 71.36 74.30 71.77 87.43 90.60 93.00 91.92 93.29 93.65 89.85 85.81 83.30 87.27 89.69 91.56 88.59 92.08 92.29 73.52 71.99 95.34 89.28 114.21 147.20 146.48 127.26 151.88 133.26 143.13 138.57 142.94 147.93 143.11 128.14 118.59 108.01 113.76 122.18 121.39 141.03 145.42 932.92 884.36 1,190.34 1,178.48 1,328.23 1,792.76 2,275.99 2,060.82 2,508.91 2,678.94 2,700.13 2,708.26 2,793.81 2,894.82 2,934.23 2,681.89 2,550.69 2,460.54 2,518.56 2,610.92 2,587.60 2,863.04 2,920.11 128.05 119.71 160.41 160.46 186.84 236.34 286.83 265.79 322.84 334.59 338.47 338.18 350.25 360.39 360.03 SS0.15 315.41 307.12 315.29 328.75 325.49 362.26 372.28 5.20 5.81 4.40 4.64 4.25 3.49 3.08 3.64 3.45 3.61 3.49 3.51 3.44 3.36 3.37 3.65 3.85 4.01 3.91 3.74 3.82 3.35 3.26 200.51 204.73 203.90 201.44 204.64 250.98 257.11 256.22 252.55 256.13 168.27 171.48 167.18 161.97 162.82 92.21 91.91 91.75 92.29 93.43 142.25 146.40 145.20 142.95 147.67 2,886.73 2,955.69 2,943.52 2,876.83 2,903.03 367.07 374.62 372.93 368.14 374.18 3.32 3.24 3.25 3.31 3.25 1 Average 2 Includes 3 Includes 4 of daily closing prices. all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE. 30 stocks. Includes 500 stocks. 5 0 Common st ock yields (perce nt) 5 New? ork Stock Exc lange indexes Dec. 31, 1965-50)2 Industrial 1 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Conimon stock pric es 1 Composite 1 1991 Earningsprice ratio 11.96 11.60 8.03 10.02 8.12 6.09 5.48 8.01 7.41 6.37 5.94 7.11 price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings- 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first 5 months of fiscal 1991, there was a deficit of $110.6 billion, compared with a deficit of $97.5 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS^ 1,400 1,400 1,300 1,300 1,200 1,200 OUTLAYS*/ 1,100 1,100 1,000 1,000 900 900 RECEIPTS^/ 800 800 700 700 600 A V M N '600 SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-W - -100 -100 -200 -300 : /] H983 = i *• | 1984 i 1985 i 1986 — =^^ I 1987 I 1988 I 1989 1 1990 ""~~" I 1991 K 1992N -200 -300 FISCAL YEARS V INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit Receipts Outlays (-) 1976 Transition quarter 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 (estimates) 1992 (estimates) Cumulative total, first 5 months: 1 Fiscal year 1990 Fiscal year 1991 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 371.8 96.0 409.2 458.7 503.5 590.9 678.2 745.7 '808.3 851.8 734.1 769.1 854.1 909.0 990.7 1,031.3 1,091.4 1,165.0 393.4 417.8 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit -3.9 -4.3 -2.0 1.1 -5.0 7.9 .2 .3 607.1 639.8 709.3 784.8 919.2 1,131.0 1,300.0 176.8 183.5 193.8 202.7 210.9 225.1 237.9 251.7 9.4 16.7 19.6 38.8 52.8 56.6 60.4 63.6 1,817.0 2,120.1 2,345.6 2,600.8 2,867.5 3,206.3 3,617.8 4,021.1 1,499.4 1,736.2 1,888.1 2,050.3 2,190.3 2,410.4 2,717.6 2,995.4 89.2 96.0 14.8 21.6 3,002.9 3,411.7 2,280.0 2,557.7 -3.2 38.2 -72.7 73.9 -120.0 -208.0 185.6 80.7 89.7 100.0 114.3 135.2 151.4 147.1 165.8 769.5 806.8 810.0 861.4 933.2 1,026.6 1,171.7 1,194.2 221.6 -237.9 -169.3 -193.9 -206.1 277.0 -378.5 — 344.4 186.2 200.2 213.4 241.5 263.7 281.7 298.3 315.3 401.7 432.5 — 112.3 -132.2 103.9 117.5 -78.9 -127.9 -207.8 -185.3 946.3 990.3 1,003.8 1,064.1 1,144.1 1,251.7 1,409.6 1,445.9 -212.3 -221.2 -149.7 -155.1 -153.4 -220.4 -318.1 -280.9 547.9 568.9 640.7 667.5 727.0 749.7 793.2 849.8 490.9 528.5 -97.5 -110.6 289.4 300.3 477.4 495.5 629.0 643.6 706.4 776.6 828.9 908.5 994.3 1,136.8 1,371.2 1,564.1 69.6 19.4 -70.5 -13.3 49.7 -54.9 Held by the puWfc (-) 66.4 18.0 76.8 85.4 98.0 113.2 130.2 143.5 147.3 166.1 302.2 76.6 328.5 369.1 403.5 476.6 543.0 594.3 661.2 686.0 1 Data from Monthly Treasury Statement. NOTE.—Data are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1992, February 32 Surplus or deficit (-) 231.7 63.2 278.7 314.2 365.3 403.9 469.1 474.3 453.2 500.4 -73.7 -14.7 -53.6 -59.2 -40.2 -73.8 Gross Fe leral debt (end of period) Off-budget On-budget Total Fiscal year or period J 4. 1991, except as noted. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 549.1 FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 5 months of fiscal 1991, receipts were $24.4 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $37.6 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DO LLARS BILLIO NS OF DOLLARS 600 RECEIPTSl/ 500 600 INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES \ \ „.— -^"^ .— — ' "~ : ~ 200 \ ' 0 1,200 1 500 '•- """ .-— 400 — -• — \ CORPORATION INCOME TAXES OTHER RECEIPTS 100 . 300 SOCIAL INSURANCE CONTRIBUTIONS TAXES AND 200 \ | | 1 100 1 I 1 I o I 1,200 OUTLAYS-!/ rf*** 1 000 1 000 ^,'' NONDEFENSE \ \ „ 900 ,-•'""' ~*""""" 800 """" 700 _.. — •*""" : 400 \ 300 200 400 NATIONAL DEFENSE A -i ' 1983 r— 1984 i 1985 300 i 1986 i i 1987 1988 FISCAL YEARS i i 1989 1990 .V'INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS I 1991 N 200 1992^ COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Or -budget a id off-bud ret receipt s Fiscal vear Total Individual Corporation Social insurance On-budg et and of! budget ou tlays Nations 1 defense Other Total and taxes Depart- 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 (estimates) 1992 (estimates) Cumulative total, first 5 months: l Fiscal vear 1990 Fiscal year 1991 1 298.1 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 734.1 769.1 854.1 909.0 990.7 1,031.3 1,091.4 1,165.0 393.4 417.8 90.8 106.5 121.0 138.9 157.8 182.7 201.5 209.0 239.4 36.6 37.7 40.8 50.fi 69.5 69.3 65.6 71.8 371.8 409.2 458.7 503.5 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 851.8 97.2 104.5 116.3 134.0 157.5 185.3 209.9 227.4 265.2 283.9 303.3 334.3 359.4 380.0 402.0 429.4 73.0 73.1 74.3 78.9 82.3 90.9 101.0 104.2 946.3 990.3 1,003.8 1,064.1 1,144.1 1,251.7 1,409.6 1,445.9 252.7 273.4 282.0 290.4 303.6 299.3 298.9 295.2 245.2 265.5 274.0 445.7 466.9 492.6 529.5 61.3 63.1 83.9 94.5 103.3 93.5 95.9 101.9 192.3 193.1 26.3 31.8 138.8 155.3 35.9 37.7 490.9 528.5 120.6 128.5 244.1 285.9 297.7 288.9 298.4 334.5 349.0 392.6 401.2 41.4 34.3 Data from Monthly Treasury Statement. NOTE.—Data are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1992, February 87.9 95.1 102.3 113.6 130.9 153.9 180.7 204.4 220.9 54.9 60.0 65.7 64.6 61.1 49.2 37.0 56.9 131.6 157.6 181.0 217.8 Health Medi- Income securi- Social securi- inter- ty ty est Net Other military butions 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 Inter- Total 89.6 6.4 6.4 7.5 7.5 15.7 17.3 18.5 20.5 23.2 26.9 15.8 19.3 22.8 60.8 61.0 61.5 66.4 86.5 99.7 107.7 122.6 112.7 85.1 93.9 104.1 118.5 139.6 156.0 170.7 178.2 26.7 29.9 35.4 42.6 52.5 68.7 85.0 89.8 111.1 82.8 93.0 114.7 119.6 131.4 133.5 125.4 122.3 118.6 73.9 11.8 15.9 28.6 30.4 26.5 32.1 39.1 46.6 52.6 57.5 294.9 289.8 287.5 283.0 16.2 14.2 11.6 10.5 9.6 13.8 17.0 17.8 33.5 35.9 40,0 44.5 48,4 57.7 71.2 81.3 65.8 70.2 75.1 78.9 85.0 98.1 104.4 113.7 128.2 119.8 123.3 129.3 136.0 147.3 173.2 184.8 188.6 198.8 207.4 219.3 232.5 248.6 269.0 288.6 129.4 136.0 138.6 151.7 169.2 184.2 197.0 206.3 131.8 142.1 125.9 139.4 159.8 202.7 278.9 258.0 116.8 124.1 6.4 7.2 22.2 27.1 38.4 40.9 5.9.9 99.8 107.8 74.5 79.9 69 .1 66.9 281.9 12.1 13.1 12.3 27.4 70.3 1991, except as noted. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the fourth quarter of 1990, according to current estimates, Federal receipts rose $3.2 billion (annual rate); Federal expenditures rose $39.2 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 400 200 200 -200 -200 1982 1986 1983 1989 1990 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal (jovernment expenditures Federal (}overnmeni receipts Period Total Personal tax and receipts Fiscal year: 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Calendar year: 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 * 1982: IV 1983: IV 1984: IV 1985: IV 1986: IV 1987: IV 1988: IV 1989: TH rv n m 1990: I IV r 776.8 815.2 899.4 957.6 1,041.9 1,094.9 340.4 357.0 400.8 411.3 457.6 483.0 788.7 827.9 913.8 972.4 1,052.9 1,110.3 633.1 675.5 742.7 805.3 853.8 940.0 997.5 1,048.1 1,055.7 1,080.6 1,105.8 1,125.9 1,129.1 346.4 361.4 405.8 415.1 464.0 492.8 303.0 291.9 326.0 355.3 376.2 419.2 424.8 462.2 469.6 473.6 492.1 500.0 505.5 Corporate profits tax accruals Contributions for Total insurance Purchases of goods and services Transfer ments Grantsin-aid to State and local governments Subsidies current surplus of Government enter- Wage accruals less disbursements 128.3 134.6 20.7 22.8 -0.1 Net inter- paid 108.1 113.8 113.6 55.9 50.9 53.5 55.6 57.8 58.8 305.8 326.1 345.9 382.6 412.6 439.6 962.3 1,028.0 1,060.0 1,101.8 1,172.2 r 1,252.7 341.5 368.6 375.4 377.8 399.0 416.1 374.0 394.6 411.1 433.2 462.0 504.7 97.8 107.4 103.1 108.3 115.8 128.3 139.3 148.8 167.7 182.1 76.3 83.8 103.2 110.5 110.4 109.2 46.4 70.2 69.7 78.8 88.9 107.4 115.4 104.7 101.3 106.5 109.2 114.2 106.7 55.1 50.5 54.0 57.0 58.4 61.7 47.6 53.6 56.2 53.5 50.8 55.1 57.8 59.3 58.7 60.6 60.5 61.0 64.6 310.9 332.1 350.8 389.8 420.1 446.7 236.1 259.8 290.7 317.7 337.9 358.4 399.6 421.9 426.1 439.9 444.0 450.6 452.3 985.6 1,034.8 1,071.9 1,114.2 1,187.2 1,275.7 835.7 844.7 930.2 1,017.5 1,042.8 1,101.7 1,153.8 1,179.8 1,205.8 1,248.8 1,271.7 1,271.6 1,310.8 355.2 366.5 381.3 380.3 400.0 424.0 293.2 276.1 326.0 376.6 368.8 388.2 401.1 399.2 399.9 410.6 421.9 425.8 437.6 380.1 399.9 414.0 438.9 471.9 511.4 347.4 352.5 362.1 385.8 405.8 421.4 447.2 474.4 487.9 503.4 510.4 513.2 518.5 99.7 106.8 102.6 111.1 118.2 131.4 84.5 86.0 96.3 103.5 103.0 102.7 112.2 117.6 121.5 128.5 131.5 129.8 135.8 130.1 135.6 142.3 151.3 172.0 186.3 87.2 101.0 125.3 132.7 136.0 147.6 157.9 172.1 175.2 178.1 184.3 189.8 193.0 74.6 81.1 99.1 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 34 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals or deficit ( ) national income and product accounts 31.1 33.6 27.7 r 21.5 .0 .1 — .1 .0 .0 -185.5 -212.8 -160.7 -144.1 -130.3 T - 157.7 20.3 26.0 31.8 32.7 25.0 22.7 23.4 29.1 21.0 19.0 29.2 41.5 35.3 16.5 21.3 28.3 23.8 13.1 25.9 -.2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .6 .0 .0 2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 - 196.9 -206.9 -158.2 -141.7 -134.3 -165.4 -202.6 -169.2 -187.5 -212.2 -189.0 -161.7 -156.3 -131.7 -150.1 -168.3 -166.0 -145.7 -181.7 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Industrial roduction (1387=1 Kl; seasonal] v adjusted Period ('iiitwl Canada States 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990" 81.9 84.9 92.8 94.4 95.3 100.0 105.4 108.1 109.2 1989: Dec 108.6 104.7 1990: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 107.5 108.5 108.9 108.8 109.4 110.1 110.4 1 10.5 110.6 109.9 r !08.3 r 107.2 ' 102.6 ' 102.7 102.6 ' 102.3 ' 102.8 r !02.7 ' 103.1 ' 102.0 r 100.4 ' 100.3 r 98.8 97.8 1991: Jan" Feb" r 1 76.5 81.5 91.4 96.5 95.7 100.0 105.0 105.1 101.6 106.6 105.7 Italy ,I« pun France Germany 82.9 85.5 93.4 96.8 96.6 100.0 109.3 115.7 121.3 97.3 96.5 97.1 97.2 98.0 100.0 104.7 108.9 110.2 90.3 90.9 93.5 97.7 99.6 100.0 103.9 108.7 114.6 88.8 91.8 92.9 96.2 100.0 105.9 109.2 116.9 107.8 111.4 117.2 108.5 116.5 107.1 118.8 108.0 117.9 109.8 121.0 109.3 121.1 109.4 123.2 111.6 123.7 111.6 122.4 ' 109.8 125.3 110.1 124.6 r 108.0 124.0 ' 106.2 125.1 109.3 Consumer arices (If) f2-S4=100 United Kingdom United States l Canada United Kingdom •Japan France Germany 98.0 99.9 102.1 104.2 104.9 105.0 105.7 108.1 111.4 91.7 100.3 108.0 114.3 117.2 121.1 124.4 128.9 133.2 97.0 100.3 102.7 104.9 104.7 104.9 106.3 109.2 112.1 100.8 111.5 121.1 128.5 134.4 141.1 150.4 159.6 95.4 99.8 104.8 111.1 114.9 119.7 125.6 135.4 148.2 Italy 86.3 89.5 89.6 94.5 96.8 100.0 103.6 104.0 103.3 96.5 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6 118.3 124.0 130.7 114.6 104.4 126.1 131.5 109.0 130.5 110.2 154.4 139.6 111.9 107.3 111.3 111.4 112.8 110.4 110.2 109.5 113.4 107.2 113.7 108.4 115.2 109.7 116.5 109.7 117.3 110.7 117.0 107.4 ' 116.6 106.6 116.4 109.2 ' 103.5 r !03.2 r 104.8 r 105.9 ' 104.7 r !07.2 r 102.9 r !02.1 ' 102.1 ' 102.1 100.5 r 99.8 127.4 128.0 128.7 128.9 129.2 129.9 130.4 131.6 132.7 133.5 133.8 133.8 132.7 133.4 133.9 133.9 134.6 135.1 135.8 135.8 136.3 137.4 138.2 138.1 109.2 109.5 109.9 110.8 111.6 111.0 110.9 111.4 112.4 113.9 113.5 113.2 130.8 131.1 131.6 132.1 132.3 132.6 132.9 133.7 134.4 135.2 135.0 134.9 110.9 111.3 111.4 111.6 111.8 111.9 111.9 112.2 112.6 113.4 113.2 113.3 155.3 156.5 157.1 157.7 158.0 158.7 159.3 160.3 161.2 162.6 163.6 164.2 140.4 141.2 142.6 147.0 148.3 148.9 149.0 150.5 151.9 153.1 152.7 152.6 99.5 134.6 134.8 141.7 141.7 114.1 135.4 114.1 165.4 153.0 153.8 91.8 118.8 Data relate to all urban consumers. 94.9 100.4 104.8 108.9 113.4 118.4 123.2 129.3 135.5 87.7 Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and International Trade Administration, Trade Information and Analysis). U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] MCI ehandise e xports (f. a.s. value 1 Creneral m erchandisf imports customs value) 3 Principal end-use e ommodih categor\ Period Total 2 Foods, feeds, and bever- Industrial supplies and ° als Capgoods except automotive Automotive Consumer cles, parts, and engines (nonfood) except automotive Other 2 15.7 16.8 14.3 13.4 13.3 12.6 17.1 18.2 330.7 4 336.5 365.4 406,2 441.0 473.2 494.9 21.0 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.4 2.6 2.0 224.0 218.8 227.2 254.1 322.4 363.8 393.9 72.7 67.2 72.0 73.9 75.8 86.2 109.2 138.8 152.6 20.6 22.9 21.7 24.6 29.3 34.8 36.0 14.2 17.7 23.1 36.4 43.4 20.7 20.5 24.0 27.3 35.9 34.6 43.4 17.2 22.6 1990: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Noy Dec ' 31.4 31.6 33.3 32.1 32.8 34.2 32.1 32.5 32.0 35.0 34.2 33.3 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.0 2.9 3.4 2.8 3.1 2.7 2.6 3.0 2.5 8.6 8.0 8.6 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.1 8.7 8.6 10.0 9.6 9.0 12.0 12.8 12.8 12.4 12.7 13.5 12.8 12.5 12.6 13.2 12.3 13.0 2.5 2.8 3.3 3.0 3.5 3.4 3.0 3.1 2.7 3.4 3.1 2.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.9 3.8 3.7 1991: Jan 34.5 2.7 9.6 13.1 3.2 4.0 5 5 Foods feeds, and bever- 244.0 258.0 61.7 56.7 61.7 58.5 57.3 66.7 85.1 99.3 104.2 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990r. Total Industrial supplies and als 31.3 30.9 31.5 24.0 22.3 24.3 32.3 37.2 35.1 216.4 205.6 1982 1983 Trade balance Principal ;nd-use cc mmodity category 4 Capgoods except automotive General merchandise Automotive Consumer cles. parts, and engines (nonfood) except automotive 39.7 44.9 60.0 68.3 79.4 88.7 95.9 102.9 105.7 6.5 6.3 7.8 9.4 10.4 12.1 12.8 13.6 16.3 Other Exports (f.a.s) less imports (customs value) Exports (f.a.s) less imports (c.i.f.) 254.9 269.9 346.4 352.5 382.3 424.4 459.5 493.2 516.6 -27.5 -52.4 -106.7 -117.7 -138.3 -152.1 -118.5 -109.4 -IOI.O -64.2 -122.4 -133.6 -155.1 -170.3 — 137.1 -129.4 -122.7 -12.1 -8.8 -10.2 -9.1 -9.6 -7.1 -11.0 -11.6 — 11.1 -12.9 -10.7 -8.0 -8.8 (c.i.f. value) 112.0 35.4 33.3 40.9 59.8 65.1 71.8 84.5 101.4 113.3 40.8 21.9 24.4 24.8 24.8 25.1 26.6 107.0 123.7 113.9 101.3 111.0 118.3 132.3 143.0 117.3 53.5 66.8 78.2 85.2 87.7 86.1 85.9 41.6 38.7 41.6 39.4 40.5 39.6 41.2 42.3 41.3 46.0 43.1 39.6 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.2 12.9 11.1 11.5 10.5 11.3 10.5 11.0 12.3 12.8 14.3 13.3 11.6 9.8 9.1 9.8 9.8 9.5 9.6 10.1 9.8 9.3 10.6 10.2 9.8 6.4 6.7 7.9 6.9 7.5 7.3 7.5 7.7 7.0 8.0 7.0 6.3 8.9 8.3 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.5 9.1 9.1 8.6 9.6 9.1 8.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.3 43.4 40.4 43.5 41.1 42.4 41.3 44.2 43.1 47.9 44.9 41.3 -10.2 -7.1 -8.4 -7.3 -7.8 -5.3 -9.1 -9.7 -9.3 -11.0 -8.9 -6.3 41.5 2.2 12.4 9.9 7.1 8.5 1.3 43.3 -7.0 43.1 38.4 1 Includes Department of Defense Military Assistance Program grant-aid shipments. 2 Includes undocumented exports to Canada through 1988. 3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. 4 Total includes revisions not reflected in detail. 5 Total exports are on a revised statistical month basis; end-use categories are on a statistical NOTE.—Data shown include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the fourth quarter of 1990, the merchandise trade deficit fell to $28.9 billion from $29.8 billion in the third quarter; the current account deficit rose to $27.8 billion from $26.5 billion in the third quarter. BILL ONS OF DOLL ARS* 10 BILLIONS OF DOLL/kRS* 10 y\ o V A AX- V y V v A 5 \\ 10 '\\\ 15 \ BALANCE ON 3OODS, ERVICES, AND INCOME -20 X^'f\/ -20 M^ V._--. 2y -30 v TV r-^ s^J f^<^"- -' b l /I f~^l Vs • <~ N ERCHANDISE 1FRADE BALANCE -40 1 -45 i t 1 * t 1 | j \ 1984 1983 1982 ' ' 1985 i ^^ i i 1986 S ;*V N —\/y i ii f BALANCE ON CURRENT ACC:OUNT i i -30 -40 1 1 1 i 1988 1987 25 i i i -45 1990 1989 SEASONAUYADJUS FED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS >OURCE: DEPARTMEN1 OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted. Credits (+), debits (—)] Merchandise 1 Exports 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990" 1988: 1989: 1990: 237,085 211,198 201,820 219,900 215,935 223,367 250,266 320,337 360,465 389,286 76,497 I 79,392 80,511 83,937 TV 88,267 I 91,111 89,349 91,738 IV r 96,093 I r 96,585 r 96,152 TV".... 100,456 n m n m n. m .... Net travel and transpor- Other services, Receipts on U.S. assets abroad Imports Net balance -265,063 -247,642 -268,900 -332,422 -338,083 -368,425 -409,766 -447,323 -475,329 -497,966 - 109,988 -110,494 -111,290 -115,551 -116,360 -119,333 -119,152 -120,484 -122,902 -119,810 -125,937 -129,317 -27,978 -36,444 -67,080 -112,522 -122,148 - 145,058 -159,500 -126,986 -114,864 -108,680 -33,491 -31,102 -30,779 -31,614 -28,093 -28,222 -29,803 -28,746 -26,809 -23,225 -29,785 -28,861 -844 144 -992 112 4,227 -163 -2,147 -9,153 -4,096 -10,788 -4,907 -8,939 -3,530 -8,298 -5,452 4,060 659 -6,320 1,689 -6,413 -1,075 -1,776 -1,139 -1,062 -1,144 _-624 -599 -2,094 -1,763 -57 39 -1,667 192 -1,114 870 -1,776 -1,287 986 390 -1,382 -235 -1,705 -2,042 549 12,552 12,981 13,859 14,042 14,008 18,551 18,262 21,032 26,123 27,648 4,736 5,079 5,391 5,829 5,899 6,164 7,031 7,030 6,226 6,896 7,087 7,439 -53,626 84,975 -57,097 85,346 -54,549 81,972 -69,542 92,935 -66,115 82,282 -70,013 80,982 90,536 -85,210 110,048 -108,438 127,536 -128,448 128,829 -121,296 transactions 3 * 1 Excludes military. * Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. Includes transfers of goods and services under U.S. military grant programs. 3 4 36 Inv istment incom i Services Net Period 1981 1982 2 26,980 26,739 27,942 28,386 30,872 31,932 32,102 32,629 31,550 30,691 31,889 34,700 5 Balance on goods, Unilateral Balance Net services, and income nef account 31,349 28,250 27,423 23,394 16,166 10,969 5,326 1,610 -913 7,533 2,400 409 -141 -1,059 465 -1,957 17 561 2,004 -990 2,256 4,265 15,223 3,907 -30,188 -86,385 -106,859 - 129,384 -147,739 -113,857 -95,314 -78,224 -29,206 -27,815 -27,297 -29,537 -23,549 -25,643 -24,061 -22,061 -18,880 -18,311 -22,382 -18,650 -8,331 -9,775 -9,956 -12,621 - 15,473 - 16,009 -14,575 - 15,005 -14,720 -21,073 -3,476 -3,060 -3,461 -5,008 -3,555 -3,006 -3,530 -4,631 -3,440 -4,422 -4,099 -9,112 6,892 -5,868 -40,143 -99,006 — 122,332 - 145,393 -162,314 - 128,862 -110,034 -99,297 -32,682 -30,875 -30,758 -34,545 -27,104 -28,649 -27,591 -26,692 -22,320 -22,733 -26,481 -27,762 Payments assets in IT.S. " -24,580 -26,330 -28,083 -29,445 -30,407 -33,889 -32,085 -32,068 -29,546 -31,681 -29,633 -30,435 5 Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. See p. 37 for continuation of tabk. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $24.4 billion in the fourth quarter of jp 990, compared to an increase of $13.5 billion in the third quarter. Liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, increased $19.6 billion in the fourth quarter, compared to an increase of $27.6 billion in the third quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* CHANGE IN FOREIGN ASSETS IN THE U.S., NET CHANGE IN U.S. ASSETS ABROAD, NE1 -20 -40 -40 -60 -60 1982 1990 "SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Foreign assets in the J.S., net [inereas s/capital inflo\v (+)] 3 U.S. assets abroad, net increase/capit al outflow (— 1 1 Period Total -110,951 - 124,490 56,100 -31,070 -27,721 92,030 -62,946 84,176 -127,061 -61,251 4,569 -19,856 n m -42,383 26,508 IV 32,859 1989: I -1,381 n ra -44,076 -48,745 IV 32,905 1990: I rr n ..... -31,694 nr... -31,894 IV" ... -30,568 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990" 1988: I U.S. official Other U.S. Govern- assets 3 6 assets -5,175 -4,965 -1,196 -3,131 -3,858 312 9,149 -3,912 -25,293 -2,158 1,502 39 -7,380 1,925 -4,000 - 12,095 -5,996 -3,202 -3,177 371 1,739 -1,091 -5,097 - 100,679 -6,131 -113,394 -5,006 -49,898 -5,489 -22,451 2,821 -21,043 -2,022 -90,321 997 -73,091 2,969 -83,232 102,953 1,185 2,971 -62,063 4,661 1,594 19,048 -847 -36,960 1,957 3,452 -31,885 962 -29,821 11,017 -303 574 -38,654 -47 -45,496 -659 36,741 31,257 -808 360 -33,273 4,797 -34,273 U.S. private assets Total 83,032 93,746 84,869 102,621 130,012 221,599 218,470 221,442 214,652 87,545 26,079 65,270 49,797 80,295 68,402 2,794 74,136 69,320 32,988 25,496 56,131 38,907 6 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), foreign currencies, and the U.S. reserve posi;ion in the IMF. Foreign official assets 4,960 3,593 5,845 3,140 -1,083 35,588 45,210 39,515 8,823 30,778 24,840 5,970 -2,015 10,720 7,797 -4,961 13,003 7,016 8,203 5,541 13,588 19,851 Other foreign assets 78,072 90,154 79,023 99,481 131,096 186,011 173,260 181,927 205,829 56,767 1,239 59,300 51,812 69,575 60,605 7,755 61,133 76,336 -24,786 19,954 42,543 19,055 Allocations of special drawing rights (SDKs) 1,093 Statistical d iscrepancy Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) 19,934 36,612 11,374 27,456 20,041 15,824 6,790 —8,404 22,443 73,002 2,034 - 14,539 23,344 - 19,242 -8,439 27,236 -2,469 6,117 22,404 28,932 2,244 19,424 Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy 2,970 -2,995 -4,630 4,656 3,093 -1,697 -4,953 3,560 3,023 -767 -4,980 2,726 assets, net 6 (unadjusted, end of period) 30,074 33,958 33,747 34,934 43,186 48,511 45,798 47,802 74,609 83,340 43,186 41,028 47,788 47,802 49,854 60,502 68,418 74,609 76,303 77,298 80,024 83,340 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING page Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagriculrural Employment Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagriculrural Industries Employment Cost Index—Private Industry Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates. Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base Bank Loans and Securities Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Consumer Installment Credit Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports , U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 - General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: p Preliminary. r Revised. c Corrected. ... Not available (also, not applicable). NSA not seasonally adjusted. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, B.C. 20402. Price $2.25 (single copy) ($2.81 foreign). Subscription price: $24.00 per year; $30.00 for foreign mailing. 38 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1991 0—41-380