Full text of Economic Indicators : March 1987
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100th Congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators MARCH 1987 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1987 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland, Chairman LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Vice Chairman SENATE WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) JOHN MELCHER (Montana) JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico) WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho) ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York) PETE WILSON (California) HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California) DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin) JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York) FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California) STEPHEN J. SOLARZ (New York) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine) HAMILTON FISH, JR. (New York) ALEX McMILLAN (North Carolina) JUDITH DAVISON, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS BERYL W. SPRINKEL, Chairman THOMAS G. MOORE, Member MICHAEL L. MUSSA, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—SlsT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; ieven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.50 a single copy ($3.13 foreign), or by subscription at $27.00 per year ($33.75 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 11 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to revised estimates for the fourth quarter of 1986, current-dollar gross national product (GNP) rose 1.7 percent (annual rate) or $18.0 billion. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 1.1 percent and the implicit price deflator rose 0.7 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 4,400,i 2,000 2,000| l,600 1,600! 1978 SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment National defense Nondefense Final sales 108.9 121.9 142.7 167.5 193.8 214.4 235.0 259.4 277.6 52.9 56.1 65.4 74.8 78.9 69.1 76.2 94.7 88.6 263.4 289.9 322.2 345.9 369.0 391.5 422.2 461.3 498.0 2,221.0 2,495.2 2,740.3 3,028.6 3,190.5 3,412.8 3,700.9 3,987.0 4,199.4 409.6 14.1 335.9 321.9 671.8 293.2 205.4 87.7 378.7 3,272.4 579.8 -25.8 364.7 390.5 676.1 276.1 221.5 54.6 400.0 3,514.8 2,363.8 2,416.1 2,445.6 2,487.2 659.5 657.5 670.3 661.1 -45.6 63.2 -60.0 -66.1 373.4 382.1 389.2 386.2 419.0 445.3 449.1 452.2 693.2 733.3 743.8 763.4 283.4 315.2 317.2 329.1 227.1 233.7 234.5 244.9 56.3 81.6 82.7 84.2 409.8 418.1 426.6 434.3 3,575.4 3,683.9 3,735.3 3,808.9 3,909.3 3,965.0 4,030.5 4,087.7 2,530.9 2,576.0 2,627.1 2,667.9 650.6 667.1 657.4 669.5 -49.4 -77.1 -83.7 -105.3 378.4 370.0 362.3 368.2 427.9 447.1 446.0 473.6 777.3 799.0 829.7 855.6 333.7 340.9 360.9 380.9 248.9 255.1 265.5 268.0 84.8 85.8 95.5 112.9 443.5 458.1 468.8 474.7 3,883.9 3,945.9 4,027.4 4,090.8 4,149.2 4,175.6 4,240.7 4,258.7 2,697.9 2,732.0 2,799.8 2,820.4 708.3 687.3 675.8 663.2 -93.7 - 104.5 -108.9 -110.2 374.8 363.0 370.8 383.5 468.5 467.5 479.7 493.7 836.7 860.8 874.0 885.3 355.7 367.6 369.3 372.1 266.4 278.4 286.8 278.8 89.3 89.2 82.6 93.3 480.9 493.3 504.7 513.2 4,105.4 4,161.2 4,245.2 4,285.8 3,212.5 2,117.0 1983- IT 3,545.8 2,315.8 1984- I n m 3,670.9 3,743.8 3,799.7 3,845.6 n m Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Total State and local 161.8 178.0 208.1 242.2 272.7 283.5 311.3 354.1 366.2 1982- IV IV ' Total 425.2 467.8 530.3 588.1 641.7 675.0 733.4 815.4 864.2 416.8 454.8 437.0 515.5 447.3 502.3 662.1 661.1 683.6 n ni Imports 223.4 272.5 318.9 348.9 335.6 358.7 441.4 448.6 477.3 1,403.5 1,566.8 1,732.6 1,915.1 2,050.7 2,234.5 2,428.2 2,600.5 2,762.5 IV Exports 227.5 291.2 351.0 382.8 361.9 352.5 382.7 369.8 373.0 2,249.7 2,508.2 2,732.0 3,052.6 3,166.0 3,405.7 3,765.0 3,998.1 4,206.1 1986- I Federal Net exports 4.1 18.8 32.1 33.9 26.3 -6.1 -58.7 -78.9 104.3 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 ' IV 1985- I Government purchases of goods and services Exports and imports of goods and services GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS [Billions of 1982 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed Change in business inventories 1,961.0 2,004.4 2,000.4 2,024.2 2,050.7 2,146.0 2,246.3 2,324.5 2,418.7 362.1 389.4 379.2 395.2 366.7 361.2 422.2 461.4 456.7 178.0 170.8 137.0 126.5 105.1 149.3 170.6 177.2 194.0 36.8 15.0 -6.9 23.9 -24.5 64 59.2 9.0 6.6 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 r 3,115.2 3,192.4 3,187.1 3,248.8 3,166.0 3,279.1 3,489.9 3,585.2 3,674.9 1982: IV 3,159.3 2,078.7 352.3 115.8 1983: IV 3,365.1 2,191.9 390.4 159.9 1984- I 3,444.7 3,487.1 3,507.4 3,520.4 2,213.8 2,246.3 2,253.3 2,271.7 394.4 419.5 427.1 447.6 3,547.0 3,567.6 3,603.8 3,622.3 2,292.3 2,311.9 2,342.0 2,351.7 3,655.9 3,661.4 3,686.4 3,696.1 2,372.7 2,408.4 2,448.0 2,445.8 n HI IV 1985- I n TTT IV 1986: I n m IV '. Exports of goods and services Government purchases of goods and services Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total Total National defense 339.4 353.2 332.0 343.4 335.6 368.1 453.2 470.5 519.3 604.1 609.1 620.5 629.7 641.7 649.0 675.2 721.2 746.8 233.7 236.2 246.9 259.6 272.7 275.1 291.7 323.6 332.2 160.7 164.3 171.2 180.3 193.8 206.9 219.4 235.7 250.0 336.0 324.3 660.1 289.5 201.4 355.5 401.6 642.2 266.0 211.6 -68.6 -87.2 -85.7 -92.7 361.3 367.0 375.5 375.0 429.9 454.2 461.2 467.7 650.2 678.2 681.0 691.5 271.2 296.3 295.6 303.8 214.4 219.0 218.4 225.9 23.2 17.4 .7 -5.2 -78.8 -108.1 113 8 -132.0 369.4 361.2 355.8 362.9 448.2 469.3 469.6 494.8 695.3 708.3 731.8 749.4 305.8 311.4 329.9 347.2 39.9 15.1 -.3 -28.5 -125.9 -153.9 - 163.3 - 148.0 369.2 359.8 371.2 385.8 495.1 513.6 534.5 533.8 725.2 742.2 750.4 769.3 320.4 328.9 330.9 348.6 -26.8 3.6 57.0 49.4 26.3 19 9 -63.6 -108.2 147 8 312.6 356.8 388.9 392.7 361.9 348.1 369.7 362.3 371.5 -59.3 11.7 27.0 -46.2 169.7 173.2 171.2 168.3 85.1 57.0 60.6 33.9 442.7 463.0 463.1 476.9 172 .4 175.1 180.0 181.5 457.8 456.8 454.4 457.8 186.3 192.7 197.2 199.7 Nondefense 73.0 71.9 75.7 79.3 78.9 68.2 72.3 87.8 82.2 State and local Final sales 370.4 373.0 373.6 370.1 369.0 373.9 383.5 397.6 414.6 3,078.4 3,177.4 3,194.0 3,225.0 3,190.5 3,285.5 3,430.7 3,576.2 3,668.4 88.2 370.6 3,218.6 54.4 376.2 3,338.1 56.8 77.3 77.1 77.9 379.0 381.8 385.4 387.7 3,359.6 3,430.0 3,446.8 3,486.4 228.0 233.5 242.2 239.3 77.8 77.9 87.6 107.9 389.5 396.9 401.9 402.2 3,523.9 3,550.2 3,603.1 3,627.5 238.7 249.3 259.4 252.5 81.7 79.5 71.5 96.1 404.8 413.3 419.5 420.7 3,616.1 3,646.3 3,686.7 3,724.5 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analyst IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1982 = 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Gross private domestic investment Personal consumption expenditures Period Gross national product Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Nonresidential fixed 99.5 102.2 104.7 100.3 106.3 104.5 106.4 107.3 108.3 105.9 106.7 107.3 108.4 99.2 105.5 107.3 108.2 108.1 109.5 110.7 112.0 95.5 95.3 95.0 95.7 109.1 109.5 109.4 109.7 109.2 109.3 109.6 112.0 109.0 110.2 108.9 104.6 113.9 115.4 116.6 118.0 94.6 91.0 89.7 92.5 111.0 111.8 111.6 106.7 111.6 111.7 110.5 110.4 109.2 112.1 115.4 97.0 118.8 119.4 120.3 122.0 100.0 99.3 101.3 102.6 97.2 103.8 109.6 110.9 112.4 113.6 98.4 98.5 98.8 99.0 103.6 106.4 107.5 107.8 103.4 104.1 103.6 103.0 97.5 98.0 97.4 96.7 106.5 107.2 107.5 108.9 115.0 116.6 118.0 119.5 99.4 99.2 99.3 99.4 107.6 107.8 108.1 109.4 102.4 102.4 101.8 101.5 108.0 105.8 106.6 107.4 120.6 121.8 123.0 124.1 100.3 100.2 101.0 101.4 110.2 111.7 112.2 113.2 101.5 100.9 99.9 99.4 101.7 101.8 100.7 101.0 102.7 1983- IV 105.4 105.7 103.1 103.1 108.3 1984- I 106.6 107.4 108.3 109.2 106.8 107.6 108.5 109.5 103.3 103.9 104.1 104.1 104.4 104.5 105.1 106.0 1985- I 110.2 111.1 111.8 112.8 110.4 111.4 112.2 113.4 104.6 104.5 104.5 104.3 1986- I 113.5 114.0 115.0 115.2 113.7 113.4 114.4 115.3 104.5 104.7 105.9 106.0 102.0 99.1 103.1 1982: IV State and local 71.1 77.7 86.2 93.4 100.0 104.7 110.1 116.0 120.1 98.3 71.5 77.8 85.1 93.4 100.0 98.8 98.7 99.3 100.7 Nondefense 72.4 78.0 86.4 94.3 100.0 101.4 105.5 107.9 107.7 100.7 69.8 75.6 83.9 92.6 100.0 106.2 111.7 117.3 122.4 IV Total National defense 67.8 74.2 83.4 92.9 100.0 103.6 107.1 110.0 111.0 71.9 80.0 89.4 96.9 100.0 102.1 105.0 107.5 107.0 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Imports 69.2 75.4 84.3 93.3 100.0 103.1 106.7 109.4 110.2 76.9 82.1 89.2 95.7 100.0 102.1 103.8 104.5 105.3 n m Exports 65.8 77.1 96.0 101.6 100.0 97.4 97.4 95.4 91.9 71.6 78.2 86.6 94.6 100.0 104.1 108.1 111.9 114.2 n m rv Federal Residential fixed 72.8 81.6 90.2 97.5 100.0 101.3 103.5 102.1 100.4 72.2 78.6 85.7 94.0 100.0 103.9 107.9 111.5 114.5 rv Government purchases of goods and services 72.6 81.4 89.4 96.6 100.0 102.2 106.3 108.2 111.8 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 ' n in Exports and imports of goods and services CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross national product Period 1980 1981 1985- ~0.2 1.9 -2.5 3.6 6.4 2.7 2.5 .6 7.3 9.8 5.0 2.3 1.5 3.1 2.3 4.1 2.1 3.8 .6 2.8 1.1 8.9 11.7 3.7 7.6 10.5 6.2 5.2 4.2 12.4 14.9 8.2 6.1 4.9 6.8 5.8 6.8 5.8 6.2 2.6 6.4 1.7 . .. 1982 1983 . 1984 1985 1986 ' 1982: IV.. 1983- IV 1984- I . Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars .... n m. rv I n m IV 1986- I.... n in r IV Implicit price deflator Personal consumption expenditures Chain price index 9.0 9.4 6.3 4.1 4.0 3.6 2.5 4.1 3.9 4.8 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.9 3.5 2.5 3.9 1.9 1.5 2.5 2.5 9.0 9.7 6.4 3.9 3.8 3.3 2.7 3.6 4.7 4.6 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.7 3.3 2.5 3.6 2.5 1.8 3.6 .7 NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter. Fixedweighted price index (1982 weights) Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars 9.3 9.3 6.2 4.1 4.0 3.7 2.8 4.0 4.0 4.7 3.6 3.5 3.6 4.2 3.6 2.8 4.0 2.5 1.7 2.6 2.7 10.6 10.5 7.1 9.0 8.7 7.1 6.2 10.3 9.7 8.6 9.1 5.0 7.0 7.2 7.3 8.2 6.4 4.6 5.2 10.3 3.0 -0.2 1.2 1.3 4.6 4.7 3.5 4.1 5.3 5.5 4.1 6.0 1.3 3.3 3.7 3.5 5.3 1.7 3.6 6.2 6.7 .4 Implicit price deflator Chain price index 10.7 9.2 5.7 4.1 3.8 3.5 2.1 4.4 4.3 4.2 3.0 3.4 3.7 3.3 3.7 2.9 4.3 1.1 1.1 3.6 3.2 Fixedweighted price index (1982 weights) 10.9 9.2 5.7 4.2 4.0 3.6 2.4 4.8 4.1 4.5 3.0 3.7 3.7 3.5 4.0 2.8 4.7 1.4 -.3 3.6 3.6 10.5 9.0 5.6 4.2 4.0 3.7 2.5 4.8 4.1 4.7 3.0 3.8 3.8 3.6 4.2 3.0 4.7 1.5 -.4 3.4 3.5 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dollars) * Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars) Period 1980 1981 . . 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 r 1982- IV 1983- IV 1984- I n m IV 1985- I n.. m IV. 1986- I II m IV ' 1 Current dollars 1982 dollars 1,540.8 1,738.4 1,782.2 1,914.2 2,143.7 2,275.1 2,362.0 1,779.4 2,012.5 2,081.7 2,135.9 2,160.3 2,196.8 2,226.0 2,259.1 2,301.3 2,314.1 2,343.6 2,341.5 2,370.0 2,393.0 1,807.9 1,837.2 1,782.2 1,866.0 2,030.8 2,105.5 2,145.4 1,760.2 1,940.5 1,993.8 2,031.6 2,038.4 2,059.4 2,075.7 2,094.4 2,124.6 2,127.3 2,141.0 2,135.3 2,142.2 2,163.1 Total cost and profit 2 anees with capital consumption adjustment Indirect business taxes 3 0.852 .946 1.000 1.026 1.056 1.081 1.101 1.011 1.037 1.044 1.051 1.060 1.067 1.072 1.079 1.083 1.088 1.095 1.097 1.106 1.106 0.095 .109 .125 .123 .118 .120 .123 .131 .120 .118 .117 .118 .119 .119 .120 .119 .121 .121 .123 .123 .124 0.077 .090 .094 .098 .100 .103 .106 .096 .098 .099 .100 .101 .101 .102 .104 .103 .104 .106 .103 .107 .106 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1982 dol- lars. 2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Capital consumption 3 4 Compensation of employees Net interest 0.581 .632 .676 .679 .690 .708 .725 .685 .680 .683 .684 .694 .699 .704 .708 .705 .716 .721 .724 .727 .729 0.031 .037 .043 .037 .041 .043 .040 .042 .037 .037 .039 .042 .043 .044 .043 .042 .042 .042 .041 .040 .039 Total 0.068 .078 .063 .089 .107 .106 .107 .057 .103 .107 .111 .104 .104 .103 .104 .113 .105 .105 .106 .109 .109 Profits tax liability 0.037 .035 .026 .032 .037 .032 .035 .023 .036 .041 .040 .034 .032 .031 .029 .033 .033 .032 .034 .036 .040 Profits after tan 4 0.031 .044 .037 .057 .070 .075 .072 .034 .066 .067 .071 .070 .072 .073 .075 .080 .072 .073 .072 .072 .069 Output per hour of all employees (1982 dollars) Compensation per hour of all employees (dollars) 17.096 17.194 17.318 17.867 18.224 18.436 18.441 17.383 18.027 18.172 18.275 18.201 18.250 18.285 18.384 18.604 18.472 18.449 18.438 18.445 9.939 10.861 11.699 12.124 12.574 13.060 13.379 11.915 12.259 12.406 12.498 12.630 12.758 12.878 13.011 13.121 13.229 13.294 13.347 13.406 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period National income Compensation of employees1 Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Farm 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 ' 1982- IV 1983: IV 1984- I n in IV 1985- I n in IV 1986- I n mr rv 1 Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment Nonfarm Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total Total Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment Capital consumption adjustment Net interest 2,443.5 2,518.4 2,719.5 3,032.0 3,222.3 3,386.2 2,548.2 2,851.5 2,963.2 3,010.3 3,052.3 3,102.0 3,157.0 3,201.4 3,243.4 3,287.3 1,807.4 1,907.0 2,020.7 2,214.7 2,368.2 2,498.0 1,931.1 2,092.7 2,153.7 2,195.4 2,234.7 2,275.0 2,316.3 2,352.1 2,380.9 2,423.6 30.7 24.6 12.4 31.5 29.2 26.1 28.5 19.3 44.5 26.4 24.7 30.4 32.9 33.0 21.6 29.4 156.1 150.9 178.4 205.3 225.2 252.7 159.8 188.6 198.0 203.2 209.9 210.3 217.8 222.5 227.7 232.7 13.3 13.6 13.2 8.3 7.6 15.0 15.8 12.4 12.1 8.4 7.1 5.6 6.8 8.1 7.3 8.3 188.0 150.0 213.7 264.7 280.7 300.5 146.1 248.5 262.5 271.7 259.8 265.0 266.4 274.3 296.3 285.6 202.3 159.2 196.7 230.2 222.6 243.9 150.7 223.4 235.7 241.5 223.3 220.3 213.3 215.4 235.3 226.4 226.5 169.6 207.6 235.7 223.2 237.4 164.1 231.5 249.3 246.5 225.1 221.9 213.8 213.8 229.2 235.8 -24.2 -10.4 -10.9 55 -.6 6.5 -13.4 -8.1 13 6 -4.9 -1.8 -1.6 5 1.6 6.1 -9.4 — 14.4 92 17.0 34.5 58.1 56.6 -4.5 25.1 26.7 30.2 36.5 44.7 53.2 58.9 61.0 59.2 248.1 272.3 281.0 307.4 311.4 294.0 266.9 290.2 292.5 305.2 316.1 315.7 316.8 311.4 309.7 307.6 3,340.7 3,376.4 3,396.1 3,431.5 2,461.5 2,480.2 2,507.4 2,542.8 24.4 39.5 19.6 21.0 240.9 249.6 258.0 262.2 12.8 16.3 16.2 14.8 296.4 293.1 302.0 310.4 239.0 238.3 246.5 251.6 222.5 227.7 240.4 258.8 16.5 10.6 6.1 7.2 57.3 54.8 55.5 58.8 304.9 297.7 292.9 280.4 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nondurable goods Durable goods Period 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 * 1982- IV 1983- IV 1984- I n m rv 1985- I u rri rv 1986- I n m IV ' Total personal consumption expenditures Total durable goods Other Total nondurable goods Food Clothing and shoes , Gasoline and oil Other Services Retail sales of new passenger cars (millions of units) Domestics Imports 1,915.1 2,050.7 2,234.5 2,428.2 2,600.5 2,762.5 2,117.0 2,315.8 2,363.8 2,416.1 2,445.6 2,487.2 2,530.9 2,576.0 2,627.1 2,667.9 239.9 252.7 289.1 331.2 359.3 388.1 263.8 310.0 321.2 331.3 331.8 340.4 347.7 354.0 373.3 362.0 100.5 108.9 130.4 154.5 169.2 181.7 115.7 144.4 150.4 155.8 154.4 157.6 162.3 165.3 182.8 166.4 92.7 95.7 107.1 118.9 126.8 137.3 99.1 112.4 115.6 118.3 119.2 122.3 123.5 125.9 126.8 130.9 46.6 48.1 51.6 57.8 63.3 69.1 49.0 53.2 55.2 57.2 58.3 60.4 61.9 62.8 63.7 64.7 740.6 771.0 8167 870.1 905.1 932.7 786.6 837.9 855.7 870.3 873.9 880.3 888.2 902.3 907.4 922.6 376.5 398.8 421.9 449.9 469.3 492.8 407.0 430.8 440.4 447.9 454.3 456.9 461.2 468.3 470.4 477.4 119.9 124.4 135.1 147.2 155.2 164.9 126.5 141.1 144.4 148.2 146.6 149.7 151.7 155.0 155.4 158.7 92.7 89.1 90.2 90.7 91.9 78.6 89.8 91.9 92.0 91.7 89.4 89.9 89.6 92.8 92.4 93.0 151.6 158.7 169.5 182.2 188.7 196.5 163.4 174.0 178.8 182.5 183.6 183.8 185.8 186.2 189.1 193.5 934.7 1,027.0 1,128.7 1,227.0 1,336.1 1,441.7 1,066.5 1,167.9 1,186.9 1,214.5 1,239.9 1,266.5 1,294.9 1,319.7 1,346.4 1,383.2 6.2 5.8 6.8 8.0 8.2 8.2 6.0 7.4 8.1 8.1 7.9 7.7 8.3 8.1 9.4 7.0 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.2 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.2 2,697.9 2,732.0 2,799.8 2,820.4 360.8 373.9 414.5 403.1 163.5 172.0 204.7 186.6 132.1 135.8 140.0 141.2 65.3 66.0 69.8 75.3 929.7 928.4 932.8 940.1 484.6 490.3 494.0 502.1 161.3 165.0 166.6 166.8 87.6 78.1 74.2 74.3 196.2 194.9 198.0 196.9 1,407.4 1,429.8 1,452.4 1,477.2 7.8 8.1 9.7 7.9 2.8 3.1 3.5 3.6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Motor vehicles and parts Furniture and household equipment SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $32.4 billion (annual rate) in February, following a rise of $6.2 billion in January. The increases were affected by several special factors: subsidy payments to farmers affected both the February and January changes; a pay raise for Federal Government employees, cost-of-living adjustments to several transfer payment programs, and changes in social insurance contributions also affected the January change. Excluding these special factors, personal income increased $19.6 billion in February and $11.1 billion in January. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,800 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,800 3,200 3,200 1,600 1,600 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 800 800 OTHER INCOME 400 400 TRANSFER PAYMENTS 200 200 1979 1981 1980 1983 1982 1984 1985 1986 1987 COUNCIt Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] personal income Period 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 ' 1986: 2 033 9 2 2584 2 5209 Feb... Mar Apr... May June . July Aue.. Sept Oct ' Nov r Dec r 1987: Jan r. Feb" . . 2 670.8 2 838 6 3 1102 3 314 5 3485 7 34353 3 445 1 3486 8 3 481 3 3 481 9 3,490.8 3497 9 3,507.9 3,517.8 3,523.3 3,542.7 3 548.9 3,581.3 Wage and salary disbursements Proprietors ' Other labor income ! 2 Farm Nonfarm 1 252 1 1 372 0 1 510 3 1 586 1 1 676 6 1 836 8 1 966 1 2 073 5 122 7 1384 150 3 163 6 173 6 184 5 1969 208 8 31 7 20 5 30 7 24 6 12 4 31 5 29 2 26 1 160 1 160 1 156 1 1509 178 4 205 3 225 2 252 7 2 044 8 2 051 8 2 0549 2 058 4 2 063 2 20720 2 083 4 2 0880 2,102.3 2 111 7 2,115.3 2 128 3 2,146.0 204 5 205 5 2064 207 3 208 2 209 5 2104 211 3 212.1 2130 213.8 2146 215.4 26 9 22 8 530 38 1 27 5 183 19 1 21 3 18.9 152 28.9 202 32.4 241 0 243 8 247 5 249 1 252 2 2554 257 5 261 0 260.5 2620 264.0 264 8 266.6 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in thftt'it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of | wage accruals over wage disbursements. * Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds. 3 With inventor)' valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Less: income 3 income of persons 4 dividend income interest income payments 5 13 3 13 6 13 2 83 76 15 0 48 1 52 9 61 3 63 9 68 7 74 7 764 81 2 221 4 271 9 3354 369 7 393 1 4469 476 2 475 0 273 1 324 7 368 1 4106 442 6 455 6 487 1 513 8 12 7 13 5 15 1 16 6 17 1 165 16 1 160 15.3 147 14.2 14 1 14.0 79 2 800 80 8 81 1 81 5 81 7 82 1 82 3 82.4 82 7 82 9 83 5 84.1 480 7 4804 4805 480 1 479 8 477 2 473 7 4704 467.7 465 1 462.7 461 7 460.9 504 2 5065 507 9 510 7 511 8 5203 516 5 518 7 520.5 521 5 523 5 5285 5299 56 66 4 contributions for social insurance 81 0 886 104 5 1123 120 1 133 5 150 2 160 3 158 7 159 1 159 2 159 9 159 3 1602 1609 161 1 162.0 162 6 162.7 1667 167.8 personal income 6 1 983 1 2 215 8 2 465 6 2 618 7 2 799 0 3 052 2 3 261 0 3 436 7 3 385 6 3 399 5 3 411 0 3 420 5 3 431 7 34496 3 455 9 3463 7 3,476.0 3485 2 3,490.9 3 505 9 3,526.0 With capital consumption adjustment. Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. 5 6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable personal income fell again in the fourth quarter of 1986. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 1,000 1,000 DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 14,000 — DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 14,000 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 12,000 12,000 10,000 10,000 ! DOLLARS 8,000 8,000 6,000 6,000 4,000 I I I I 1978 I I I 1979 I I 1980 I I 1981 I I I 1982 I 1983 I I I I I 1985 1984 I I I 4,000 1986 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL HATES COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Personal income Less: Personal tax and nontax payments Equals: Disposable personal income Equals: Personal saving Less: Personal outlays * Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (billions) Per capita disposable personal income Current dollars 1,812.4 2,033.9 2,258.4 2,520.9 2,670.8 2,838.6 3,110.2 3,314.5 3,485.7 1983 1984 1985 1986 T. 261.1 304.7 340.5 393.3 409.3 410.5 439.6 486.5 514.1 1,551.2 1,729.3 1,917.9 2,127.6 2,261.4 2,428.1 2,670.6 2,828.0 2,971.6 Current dollars 1982 dollars 110.2 118.0 136.8 159.4 153.9 130.6 168.7 143.3 114.2 1,441.1 1,611.3 1,781.1 1,968.1 2,107.5 2,297.4 2,501.9 2,684.7 2,857.4 2,167.4 2,212.6 2,214.3 2,248.6 2,261.5 2,331.9 2,470.6 2,528.0 2,602.0 6,968 7,682 8,421 9,243 9,724 10,340 11,265 11,817 12,304 Pr change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population, including Armed Forces abroad (thousands) 2 Percent Dollars Billions of dollars 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982 dollars Per capita personal consumption expenditures 9,735 9,829 9,722 9,769 9,724 9,930 10,421 10,563 10,773 6,304 6,960 7,607 8,320 8,818 9,515 10,243 10,866 11,438 8,808 8,904 8,783 8,794 8,818 9,139 9,475 9,713 10,014 3.8 1.0 -1.1 .5 -.5 2.1 4.9 1.4 2.0 7.1 6.8 7.1 7.5 6.8 5.4 6.3 5.1 3.8 222,629 225,106 227,754 230,182 232,549 234,829 237,067 239,317 241,524 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1982: IV 1983: IV 1984: I n m.... IV.... 1985: I n m... IV.... 1986: I n m... r IV .. 2,729.2 2,941.8 3,034.2 3,077.4 3,139.7 3,189.6 411.1 413.9 421.5 431.2 445.9 460.0 3,253.1 3,298.7 3,323.2 3,382.9 497.7 456.4 3,432.6 3,483.3 3,498.8 3,527.9 497.5 504.8 491.2 500.7 519.0 534.9 2,318.1 2,174.9 143.1 2,276.1 9,929 9,749 9,068 8,904 1.2 6.2 233,466 2,527.9 2,382.5 145.4 2,392.7 10,725 10,151 9,825 9,299 9.1 5.8 235,707 2,612.7 2,646.3 2,693.8 2,729.6 2,433.5 2,488.7 2,520.9 2,564.6 179.2 157.6 172.9 165.0 2,446.9 2,460.3 2,481.9 2,493.1 11,060 11,178 11,350 11,471 10,358 10,392 10,457 10,477 10,007 10,206 10,304 10,453 9,372 9,488 9,494 9,547 8.4 1.3 2.5 .8 6.9 6.0 6.4 6.0 236,222 236,742 237,347 237,953 2,755.4 2,842.3 2,832.0 2,882.2 2,611.3 2,658.7 2,712.4 2,756.4 144.1 183.6 119.6 125.8 2,495.7 2,550.8 2,524.7 2,540.7 11,555 11,893 11,819 11,999 10,466 10,674 10,537 10,577 10,613 10,779 10,964 11,107 9,613 9,674 9,774 9,790 — .4 8.2 -5.0 1.5 5.2 6.5 4.2 4.4 238,469 238,985 239,605 240,206 2,935.1 2,978.5 2,979.9 2,993.0 2,789.4 2,825.5 2,895.8 2,918.8 145.6 153.1 84.1 74.2 2,581.2 2,625.8 2,605.5 2,595.4 12,193 12,348 12,324 12,348 10,723 10,886 10,776 10,708 11,208 11,326 11,579 11,636 9,857 9,985 10,125 10,091 5.6 6.2 -4.0 -2.5 5.0 5.1 2.8 2.5 240,709 241,215 241,789 242,381 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the fourth quarter of 1986, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income rose $22.4 billion (annual rate) and net farm income rose $24.1 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 24U 200 240 ,xUU • 160 1 I 120 i I ^— — •^-^ ^ j^. ^ r-^ —! , —^ J160 \S ^ \ t»KC)SS FARM INC(JMt ,120 cm j 60 1 40 ET FARM INCC ME N / / "*^ X v ^ i 10 ; i i | '\ \ ' \ f /i V "- A / . \/ ' 1 * ' \» <1 1/ ii * ' \ / » •* \ ' \ i \. — •* i \ \ i * ; x ~^ ""\. / \ on 1* ^ i ^- / *^ >* \ . s ^ f ' ' * 10 * * i i i i i i * \ i ii u u 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1978 1979 1 1 1 1980 1 1 1 i i i 1981 1 1982 i 1983 1 i i i 1 I 1 i i i 1984 1985 1986 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 7 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from farming Gross farm income Period Total « Total 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 " . ... . 1984- I TJ m .. . TV 1985- I n m IV 1986- I n m . IV 1 128.4 150.7 149.3 166.3 163.4 152.4 174.4 166.6 157.0 174.4 168.0 173.8 181.4 170.7 164.7 157.4 173.5 144.5 166.6 147.2 169.6 112.4 131.5 139.7 141.6 142.6 136.5 142.2 142.1 133.2 136.5 141.2 144.1 146.8 137.3 135.1 139.8 156.2 128.2 129.6 129.4 145.7 Livestock and products Crops 53.2 62.3 71.7 72.5 72.4 67.0 69.2 72.7 62.5 60.9 69.8 72.5 73.8 68.1 67.4 71.8 83.6 63.1 63.0 54.1 69.6 59.2 69.2 68.0 69.2 70.2 69.5 72.9 69.4 70.8 75.6 71.4 71.6 73.1 69.2 67.8 68.0 72.6 65.1 66.6 75.3 76.1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-vear inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. Net farm income Cash marketing receipts 3 Value of inventory changes z 1.9 5.0 63 6.5 13 -10.9 6.3 -1.1 30 1.7 7.0 9.0 7.5 3.0 3 -2.6 45 -3.2 -3.2 27 -2.9 Production expenses Current dollars 103.2 123.3 133.1 139.4 140.7 139.5 141.7 136.1 128.3 141.6 142.2 142.0 140.9 139.0 137.1 135.2 133.2 131.1 129.1 127.3 125.7 1982 dollars 3 25.2 27.4 16.1 26.9 22.7 13.0 32.7 30.5 28.7 32.7 25.8 31.8 40.5 31.7 27.6 22.2 40.3 13.5 37.4 19.8 43.9 Income in current dollars divided by the GNP implicit price deflator (1982 = 100). NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Corporation loans and operator households. Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce. 34.9 34.9 18.8 28.6 22.7 12.5 30.2 27.3 25.0 30.7 23.9 29.3 36.9 28.7 24.8 19.8 35.7 11.9 32.8 17.2 38.1 CORPORATE PROFITS In the fourth quarter of 1986, according to preliminary estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $18.4 billion (annual rate) and after-tax profits rose $8.3 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320 280 280 120 80 80 40 40 1978 1979 1985 SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment 1 Profits after tax Domestic industries Nonfinancial Period Total 2 Total 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 r 1982- IV 1983- IV. . 1984: I n m IV 1985- I n m IV 1986: I n mP IV 1 2 3 194.0 202.3 159.2 196.7 230.2 222.6 243.9 150.7 223.4 235.7 241.5 223.3 220.3 213.3 215.4 235.3 226.4 239.0 238.3 246.5 251.6 159.6 173.8 131.2 166.6 199.2 190.8 208.3 121.6 190.7 205.2 211.5 191.3 188.8 182.6 183.8 205.3 191.3 200.6 205.4 211.8 215.6 Financial 21.0 16.5 11.8 18.1 15.4 21.0 29.3 18.7 15.5 16.6 15.4 13.4 16.1 18.2 21.1 21.7 23.2 27.8 29.1 28.9 31.5 Total 3 138.6 157.3 119.4 148.5 183.8 169.7 179.0 102.9 175.2 188.6 196.1 177.8 172.6 164.4 162.7 183.6 168.1 172.8 176.3 182.9 184.1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. Includes industries not shown separately. Manufacturing 77.1 88.5 58.0 70.1 87.4 73.0 75.2 46.8 88.6 95.0 94.6 81.3 78.9 70.4 68.2 79.0 74.5 66.7 76.8 75.6 Profits before tax Tax liability 237.1 226.5 169.6 207.6 235.7 223.2 237.4 164.1 231.5 249.3 246.5 225.1 221.9 84.8 81.1 63.1 77.2 95.4 91.8 103.4 59.8 88.1 102.9 101.6 89.3 87.8 87.8 87.1 95.8 96.4 95.7 99.0 104.4 114.6 Wholesale and retail trade 21.6 32.5 34.6 38.9 49.7 49.7 50.1 33.6 43.1 46.2 51.1 51.0 50.7 48.8 51.1 54.2 45.0 52.1 46.3 53.3 213.8 213.8 229.2 235.8 222.5 227.7 240.4 258.8 Total Dividends 152.3 145.4 106.5 130.4 140.3 131.4 133.9 54.7 63.6 66.9 71.5 78.3 81.6 87.8 104.3 68.5 73.9 76.0 78.1 79.0 80.1 80.9 81.4 81.6 82.5 85.2 87.5 88.8 89.7 143.4 146.4 144.8 135.8 134.1 126.0 126.7 133.4 139.4 126.9 128.8 135.9 144.2 Undistributed profits 97.6 81.8 39.6 58.9 62.0 49.8 46.1 35.8 69.5 70.4 66.7 56.8 54.0 45.1 45.3 51.8 57.0 41.7 41.2 47.2 54.5 Inventory valuation adjustment -43.1 -24.2 -10.4 -10.9 -5.5 -.6 6.5 -13.4 -8.1 -13.6 -4.9 -1.8 -1.6 -.5 1.6 6.1 -9.4 16.5 10.6 6.1 -7.2 NOTE.—Corporate profits and related measures for 1986 reflect retroactive provisions of the Tax' Reform Act of 1986. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to revised estimates for the fourth quarter of 1986, nonresidential fixed investment rose $5.3 (annual rate) from its third quarter level while residential investment rose $4.7 billion. There was a $27.1 decrease in inventories following a decrease of $4.5 billion in the third quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 800 billion billion BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 800 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 700 700 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 600 600 500 500 400 400 NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT 300 300 200 200 .-, 100 100 ._r^' CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES "X. J -100 1978 1979 1981 1980 1983 1982 I -100 1986 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Change in business inventories Fixed investment Gross private domestic investment Period 1979 1980 1981 1982 .. 1983 1984 1985 1986 r 1982- IV 1983- IV 1984- I .. IV . n m . 1985- I n m rv 1986- I n TTT IV r Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 454.8 437.0 515.5 447.3 502.3 662.1 661.1 683.6 409.6 579.8 659.5 657.5 670.3 661.1 650.6 667.1 657.4 669.5 708.3 687.3 675.8 663.2 Nonresidential Total Total 441.9 445.3 491.5 471.8 509.4 598.0 650.0 677.0 469.5 548.8 564.0 597.6 605.8 624.4 625.2 648.0 654.3 672.6 664.4 672.8 680.3 690.3 302.8 322.8 369.2 366.7 356.9 416.5 458.2 460.0 354.9 383.9 388.2 413.3 421.8 442.9 439.8 459.2 459.8 474.0 459.2 457.5 459.0 464.3 Structures 99.5 113.9 138.5 143.3 124.0 139.3 154.8 143.3 137.6 127.4 129.7 139.1 141.4 146.7 150.7 156.1 155.0 157.2 154.6 141.5 139.5 137.5 Producers' durable equipment 203.3 208.9 230.7 223.4 232.8 277.3 303.4 316.7 217.3 256.5 258.4 274.1 280.4 296.2 289.1 303.1 304.7 316.8 304.6 316.0 319.5 326.8 Residential 139.1 122.5 122.3 105.1 152.5 181.4 191.8 217.0 114.7 164.9 175.8 184.4 184.0 181.5 185.4 188.8 194.5 198.6 205.3 215.3 221.3 226.0 Nonfarm Total 13.0 -8.3 24.0 -24.5 7.1 64.1 11.1 6.7 -59.9 31.0 95.5 59.9 64.4 36.7 25.4 19.1 3.1 O J 43.8 14.5 -4.5 27.1 7.9 2.4 18.3 -23.1 .4 56.6 12.2 7.7 51.1 21.3 71.5 56.8 62.1 35.9 18.5 10.4 3.2 16.7 41.2 10.5 10.3 -10.8 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT According to the Commerce Department October-November 1986 survey, business spending for new plant and equipment for the year 1986 is expected to be 1.7 percent below the 1985 level, while spending in 1987 is expected to be 0.9 percent above the 1986 level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 400 400 — — ^—~ ^.^ ^_——' " 300 300 1 1—7 ^ At L INDUSTRIES ,— _— ^^\ *• — —•--«—* •"""^ 200 __ 200 •*"" \--f NON/ AANUFACTURI ^G^ -v __, ~ ''^ •>>-- "- -- 100 \ANUFACTURI 100 — --' — — — 80 80 60 60 — — 40 40 1 1 1979 1 1 1 1 1980 1 1 1 1 1981 1 1 1982 1 i i i 1 1 1983 1 1984 1 1 1985 3J 2j 2/ 1 1 1 1986 _!/ SURVEYED QUARTERLY J/SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE I 1 1 1987 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Addenda Industries surveyed quarterly Nonmanufacturiag Manufacturing Period 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 4 1987 4 ... . 1985- I n III IV 1986- I n TTT IV 4 1987- I 44 n All industries Total 217.76 254.96 282.80 315.22 310.58 304.78 354.44 387.13 380.69 384.24 78.58 95.92 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.48 144.77 141.95 373.56 387.86 389.23 397.88 Nonmanufacturing Surveyed quarterly Nondurable goods Total > Mining Transportation Public utilities 39.46 48.50 55.36 59.81 55.35 53.08 66.24 73.27 69.96 69.50 39.13 47.42 56.96 66.73 65.33 63.12 72.58 80.21 74.81 72.44 139.18 159.04 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.65 235.91 242.30 11.22 12.81 15.99 21.39 20.05 15.19 16.86 15.88 11.24 10.11 13.36 16.05 16.60 15.84 14.79 13.97 16.52 18.02 18.64 18.86 31.50 35.63 37.74 41.21 45.43 44.96 47.48 48.81 46.53 44.42 83.09 94.56 100.14 110.24 109.63 114.45 134.75 150.94 159.50 168.91 146.94 154.25 154.47 158.26 70.29 74.34 72.99 75.47 76.64 79.91 81.48 82.79 226.62 233.61 234.76 239.61 15.81 16.56 15.89 15.25 16.70 17.45 18.81 19.15 48.44 48.61 48.44 49.79 145.68 150.99 151.62 155.42 146.94 154.25 154.47 158.26 226.62 233.61 234.76 239.61 377.94 375.92 374.55 394.34 144.03 141.68 139.21 154.17 68.01 68.33 69.31 74.17 76.02 73.35 69.89 80.00 233.90 234.24 235.34 240.17 12.99 11.23 10.15 10.62 18.22 18.28 19.03 19.02 47.03 46.55 45.90 46.63 155.67 158.18 160.25 163.91 144.03 141.68 139.21 154.17 23390 234.24 235.34 240.17 386.82 393.39 141.22 145.23 67.86 72.37 73.36 72.85 245.60 248.16 . 10.36 10.58 19.85 18.46 46.32 46.90 169.08 172.22 141.22 145 23 245.60 248 16 Durable goods 1 Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and reai estate, which, effective with the April-May 1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ("nonmanufacturing surveyed annually") for data for these industries. 2 "All industries" plus the part of nonmanufacturing that is surveyed annually. 10 Total nonfarm business 2 Commercial and other 245.34 284.94 314.47 349.26 347.47 343.35 398.99 431.94 Manufacturing 78.58 95.92 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.48 144 77 141.95 Total 166.76 189.02 202.15 222.72 226.79 227.15 260.16 278.46 139.18 159.04 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.65 23591 242.30 Surveyed annually 3 27.58 29.98 31.68 34.04 36.89 38.56 44.55 44.81 3 Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and real estate. 4 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in October-November 1986, corrected for biases. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE In February, seasonally adjusted civilian employment rose 371,000 and unemployment fell 56,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 120 MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 120 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 116 116 112 112 108 108 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE- 104 104 100 100 CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT 96 96 92 92 X1 *x *v 12 12 8 8 UNEMPLOYMENT 4 4 iiiiilinn Illl Illllllllll I l l l l l l l l Illllllllll Illllllllll 1980 1979 1983 1982 1981 1984 I l l l l l l l l l l Illllllllll Hill 1985 1986 1987 0 • 16 YEARS- OF AGE AND OVER SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] T) • J 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986* 1986: Feb'... Mar Apr May June.... July Aug Sept .... Oct Nov Dec 1987: Jan Feb Noninstitutional population including resident Armed Forces NSA 166,460 169,349 171,775 173,939 175,891 178,080 179,912 182,293 181,512 181,678 181,843 181,998 182,183 182,354 182,525 182,713 182,935 183,114 183,297 183,575 183,738 A T K f including r\ Forces NSA Armed Forces 1,597 1,604 1,645 1,668 1,676 1,697 1,706 1,706 1,691 1,693 1,695 1,687 1,680 1,672 1,697 1,716 1,749 1,751 1,750 1,748 1,740 106,559 108,544 110,315 111,872 113,226 115,241 117,167 119,540 118,733 118,880 118,987 119,274 119,685 119,789 119,821 119,988 120,163 120,426 120,336 120,782 121,089 Employment including resident Armed Forces 100,421 100,907 102,042 101,194 102,510 106,702 108,856 111,303 110,248 110,500 110,664 110,852 111,293 111,559 111,764 111,703 111,941 112,183 112,387 112,759 113,122 Nonagricultural Civilian labor force 104,962 106,940 108,670 110,204 111,550 113,544 115,461 117,834 117,042 117,187 117,292 117,587 118,005 118,117 118,124 118,272 118,414 118,675 118,586 119,034 119,349 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc. 2 Labor force as percent of noninstitutional population (both including resident Armed Forces). 3 Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population. Unemployment Civilian employment Resident Total 98,824 99,303 100,397 99,526 100,834 105,005 107,150 109,597 108,557 108,807 108,969 109,165 109,613 109,887 110,067 109,987 110,192 110,432 110,637 111,011 111,382 Agricultural 3,347 3,364 3,368 3,401 3,383 3,321 3,179 3,163 3,105 3,252 3,199 3,151 3,164 3,124 3,057 3,142 3,162 3,215 3,161 3,145 3,236 Total 95,477 95,938 97,030 96,125 97,450 101,685 103,971 106,434 105,452 105,555 105,770 106,014 106,449 106,763 107,010 106,845 107,030 107,217 107,476 107,866 108,146 Part-time for economic reasons 1 3,373 4,064 4,499 5,852 5,997 5,512 5,334 5,345 5,214 5,295 5,567 5,569 5,322 5,222 5,269 5,303 5,450 5,319 5,342 5,201 5,459 Total 15 weeks and over 6,137 1,241 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,237 8,485 8,380 8,323 8,422 8,392 8,230 8,057 8,285 8,222 8,243 7,949 8,023 7,967 1,871 2,285 3,485 4,210 2,737 2,305 2,232 2,332 2,243 2,130 2,232 2,299 2,250 2,272 2,373 2,168 2,217 2,171 2,200 2,131 Labor force participation rate (percent) 2 Civilian 3 64.0 64.1 64.2 64.3 64.4 63.7 63.8 63.9 64.0 64.0 64.4 64.8 65.3 65.1 65.1 65.1 65.2 65.4 65.4 65.3 65.3 65.4 65.4 65.3 65.5 65.6 Total 64.7 65.1 65.6 65.4 65.4 65.4 65.5 65.7 65.7 65.6 65.7 65.7 65.8 65.7 65.8 65.9 * Data beginning January 1986 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of change in estimation procedures. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In February, the seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate and civilian unemployment rate were again unchanged, remaining at 6.6 percent and 6.7 percent, respectively. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 25 25 TEENAGERS (16-19) 20 \_*~\ 20 v.->\ \hKA 15 BLACK A-l / A 15 \ — A^VV AT""v-x ' BLACK AND OTHER 10 10 WOME N 20 YEARS AND OVER ALLC IVILIAN WOF :KERS ^\ --,. ^ ,X] f ~* WHITE iiiiiiHiii 1983 MEN 20 YEARS AND OVER o minium Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 1985 1984 1986 1983 1987 Illllllllll 1984 1986 1985 1987 •UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF IABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) Period Unemployment rate, all workers l By sex and age AH civilian workers By selected groups By race Married men, spouse present Women 20 years and over 4.2 9.5 9.5 7.4 7.1 6.9 5.8 7.1 7.6 9.7 9.6 7.5 7.2 7.0 5.9 6.3 8.8 8.9 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.7 6.4 6.8 8.3 8.1 6.8 6.6 6.2 16.1 17.8 19.6 23.2 22.4 18.9 18.6 18.3 5.1 6.3 6.7 8.6 8.4 6.5 6.2 6.0 11.3 13.1 14.2 17.3 17.8 14.4 13.7 13.1 12.3 14.3 15.6 18.9 19.5 15.9 15.1 14.5 5.5 6.9 7.3 9.3 9.2 7.1 6.8 6.6 2.8 4.2 4.3 6.5 6.5 4.6 4.3 4.4 Oct Nov Dec 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.7 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.6 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.8 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.7 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.2 5.9 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.1 5.9 18.9 18.4 19.3 18.8 18.9 17.9 18.0 18.5 17.7 18.2 17.3 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.8 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.8 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.5 12.7 13.1 13.1 12.7 12.7 12.3 14.9 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.9 14.2 14.6 14.6 14.3 14.2 13.7 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.3 1987: Jan Feb 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.8 17.7 18.0 5.9 5.7 12.6 12.8 14.3 14.3 6.3 6.2 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1986: 5.8 7.0 7.5 Feb Mar Apr May June .... July Aug Sept Both sexes 16-19 years Experienced wage and salary workers Men 20 years and over White 1 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces. 2 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. 12 Black and other Black Women who maintain families Labor force time lost (percent) 2 Fulltime workers Parttime workers 8.3 9.2 10.4 11.7 12.2 10.3 10.4 9.8 5.3 6.9 7.3 9.6 9.5 7.2 6.8 6.6 8.8 8.8 9.4 10.5 10.4 9.3 9.3 9.1 6.3 7.9 8.5 11.0 10.9 8.6 8.1 7.9 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.5 4.3 9.9 10.1 9.5 10.1 10.0 9.5 10.1 9.8 8.9 9.7 9.8 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.4 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.3 9.3 9.1 9.4 9.1 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.1 8.8 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.1 7.8 7.7 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.6 4.2 4.2 9.8 6.4 6.3 9.0 8.7 7.6 7.6 9.5 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In February, the percentages of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 1526 weeks rose, the percentage for 5-14 weeks was unchanged, and the percentage for 27 weeks and over fell. Both the mean and median duration of unemployment fell. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 70 DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT 60 60 50 50 LESS THAN 5 WEEKS \ JOB LOSERS 40 40 5-14 WEEKS 30 27 WEEKS AND OVER 20 REENTRANTS 30 ...,V- 20 NEW ENTRANTS /•--"T--V 10 10 15-26 JOB LEAVERS WEEKS imilimi Illllllllll 1983 1986 1985 1984 1987 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Reason for unemployment: percent distribution Duration of unemployment Period Unemployment (thousands) Percent distribution Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks State programs Number of weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Median Job losers Job leavers Reentrants New entrants Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) 1 Weekly average, thousands 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,237 43.1 41.7 36.4 33.3 39.2 42.1 41.9 32.3 30.7 31.0 27.4 28.7 30.2 31.0 13.8 13.6 16.0 15.4 12.9 12.3 12.7 10.7 14.0 16.6 23.9 19.1 15.4 14.4 11.9 13.7 15.6 20.0 18.2 15.6 15.0 6.5 6.9 8.7 10.1 7.9 6.8 6.9 51.7 51.6 58.7 58.4 51.8 49.8 48.9 11.7 11.2 7.9 7.7 9.6 10.6 12.3 25.2 25.4 22.3 22.5 25.6 27.1 26.2 11.4 11.9 11.1 11.3 13.0 12.5 12.5 3,350 3,047 4,061 3,396 2,476 2,611 488 460 583 438 377 396 3,837 3,410 4,594 3,775 2,561 2,692 Sept Get Nov Dec 8,485 8,380 8,323 8,422 8,392 8,230 8,057 8,285 8,222 8,243 7,949 41.7 42.1 42.7 42.4 40.8 41.6 42.3 41.1 41.9 41.2 42.4 30.8 31.2 31.8 31.4 31.7 30.9 29.7 30.4 31.5 31.8 30.2 13.5 12.8 11.8 12.5 12.4 12.9 13.2 13.4 11.7 12.7 12.9 14.0 13.9 13.8 13.7 15.1 14.6 14.8 15.2 14.9 14.3 14.5 15.2 14.6 14.7 14.8 15.2 15.1 15.6 15.5 15.2 14.8 15.0 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.8 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.1 49.0 50.1 48.4 49.9 50.6 49.1 47.6 48.9 48.7 48.1 48.9 11.6 11.8 12.8 11.6 12.0 12.4 12.3 12.6 12.6 12.9 13.0 26.7 26.1 26.2 26.1 25.0 26.6 27.4 25.9 26.8 25.8 25.4 12.7 12.0 12.6 12.4 12.4 11.9 12.6 12.6 11.9 13.1 12.8 2,592 2,630 2,598 2,655 2,678 2,699 2,713 2,707 2,621 2,565 2,515 388 392 379 380 378 379 388 370 357 355 357 3,295 3,144 2,799 2,556 2,474 2,632 2,483 2,335 2,296 2,478 2,841 1987' Jan Feb 8,023 7,967 41.9 42.2 31.1 31.1 12.5 12.7 14.5 14.1 15.0 14.6 7.0 6.6 49.6 48.2 11.1 13.1 25.7 25.6 13.6 13.1 2,507 2,477 363 369 3,276 1980 .. . . 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1986: Feb Mar July 1 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servieemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 337,000 in February. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) 24 MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 100 r^^C ALL NONAGRICULT URAL EST ABLISHMEN1rs 90 80 r^ •* — — — "~\" 70 SER\ rtCE-PRODUC :ING INDUSTRIES 60 — - — — 50 40 30 GOC3DS-PRODUCJNG INDUSTRIES 20 jm7ilni|i mitlimi iimltim mulimi umlmih N * 1983 1985 1984 1986 1987 ' 1987 1983 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 'SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thousands of wage and salary workers; * seasonally adjusted] Service-producing industries Goods-producing industries Period Total nonagrieultural employment Total 2 .-, struction Manufacturing Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade Government Finance, insurance, and real estate Services Total Federal 1980 1981 1982 .. 1983 1984 1985 1986 r 90,406 91,156 89,566 90,200 94,496 97,614 100,167 25,658 25,497 23,813 23,334 24,727 24,930 24,938 4,346 4,188 3,905 3,948 4,383 4,687 4,960 20,285 20,170 18,781 18,434 19,378 19,314 19,186 12,187 12,109 11,039 10,732 11,505 11,516 11,345 8,098 8,061 7,741 7,702 7,873 7,798 7,841 64,748 65,659 65,753 66,866 69,769 72,684 75,229 5,146 5,165 5,082 4,954 5,159 5,242 5,286 5,275 5,358 5,278 5,268 5,555 5,740 5,853 15,035 15,189 15,179 15,613 16,545 17,360 17,978 5,160 5,298 5,341 5,468 5,689 5,953 6,305 17,890 18,619 19,036 19,694 20,797 21,974 23,072 16,241 16,031 15,837 15,869 16,024 16,415 16,735 2,866 2,772 2,739 2,774 2,807 2,875 2,899 1986: Feb Mar Apr May.... June .. July.... Aug.... Sept.... Oct Nov .... Dec r .. 99,429 99,484 99,783 99,918 99,843 100,105 100,283 100,560 100,826 101,068 101,322 25,038 24,945 25,038 24,965 24,854 24,869 24,888 24,858 24,865 24,891 24,920 4,864 4,838 4,972 4,974 4,947 4,980 5,012 5,010 5,001 4,993 4,996 19,294 19,255 19,245 19,201 19,135 19,121 19,123 19,105 19,118 19,156 19,186 11,455 11,418 11,415 11,378 11,307 11,294 11,302 11,271 11,266 11,282 11,289 7,839 7,837 7,830 7,823 7,828 7,827 7,821 7,834 7,852 7,874 7,897 74,391 74,539 74,745 74,953 74,989 75,236 75,395 75,702 75,961 76,177 76,402 5,277 5,280 5,266 5,265 5,167 5,288 5,255 5,316 5,316 5,351 5,359 5,843 5,841 5,864 5,872 5,829 5,849 5,863 5,859 5,864 5,859 5,859 17,795 17,828 17,851 17,911 17,944 17,992 18,030 18,065 18,143 18,197 18,206 6,157 6,184 6,228 6,261 6,295 6,334 6,364 6,388 6,409 6,429 6,472 22,638 22,707 22,825 22,924 23,072 23,176 23,255 23,300 23,359 23,451 23,578 16,681 16,699 16,711 16,720 16,682 16,597 16,628 16,774 16,870 16,890 16,928 2,918 2,923 2,914 2,899 2,875 2,866 2,875 2,901 2,896 2,899 2,907 1987: Jan r... 101,641 Feb".. 101,978 25,009 25,059 5,109 5,111 19,171 19,221 11,273 11,316 7,898 7,905 76,632 76,919 5,378 5,383 5,867 5,878 18,323 18,452 6,496 6,512 23,665 23,778 16,903 16,916 2,908 2,917 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial dis- 14 putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. * Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average gross hourly earnings Average weekly hours Manufacturing Total private nonagrieultural * Period 1979 1980 1981 1982.. . . 1983 1984 1985 1986 1986- Feb Mar Apr May June July Auer Sept Oct .. .. Nov Dec 1987- Jan r Feb " Total Total private nonagricultural l Overtime ing Current dollars 9.68 9.70 9.68 9.72 9.71 9.73 9.76 9.74 9.77 9.77 9.78 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.3 1.9 2.3 2.4 1.7 -3.1 -4.0 10 .9 1.6 -.3 -.5 .9 2 .9 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.1 .6 1.1 1.5 1.0 9.78 9.83 170.6 171.4 94.3 94.4 1.9 1.9 .9 .1 8.83 8.87 40.9 41.2 1977 dollars 7.9 9.0 9.1 6.9 4.6 3.2 3.1 2.4 3.6 3.6 34.8 35.0 Current dollars 1977 dollars 3 97.4 93.5 92.6 93.4 94.9 94.6 94.1 94.9 94.4 95.0 95.3 95.3 95.2 95.0 95.1 94.9 95.0 95.3 95.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.4 Percent change from a year earlier * s 116.8 127.3 138.9 148.5 155.4 160.3 165.2 169.2 168.2 168.5 168.4 168.7 169.2 168.9 169.3 169.6 170.0 170.8 170.6 $6.70 7.27 7.99 8.49 8.83 9.19 9.53 9.73 40.2 39.7 39.8 38.9 40.1 40.7 40.5 40.7 40.7 40.7 40.7 40.7 40.6 40.6 40.8 40.8 40.7 40.8 40.8 Ind ex, 1977 Manufactur- $6.16 6.66 7.25 7.68 8.02 8.32 8.57 8.75 8.71 8.73 8.72 8.73 8.74 8.73 8.77 8.76 8.80 8.84 8.82 35.7 35.3 35.2 34.8 35.0 35.2 34.9 34.8 34.9 34.9 34.8 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.6 Adjusted hourly earnings index2 — total private nonagricultural AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICUIiTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Percent change from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural 5 Average gross weekly earnings Period Current dollars 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 . . . 1986: Feb. . Mar Apr. . . May June July L J Sept Oct Nov Dec 1987- Jan r Feb" 1 Manufacturing Total private nonagricultural 1 . .. 3 Retail trade Current dollars 1977 dollars 3 1977 dollars Current dollars $219.91 235.10 255.20 267.26 280.70 292.86 299.09 304.50 $183.41 172.74 170.13 168.09 171.26 172.78 170.42 170.88 $269.34 288.62 318.00 330.26 354.08 374.03 385.97 396.01 $342.99 367.78 399.26 426.82 442.97 458.51 464.09 465.75 $138.62 147.38 158.03 163.85 171.05 174.33 174.64 175.78 8.0 6.9 8.5 4.7 5.0 4.3 2.1 1.8 303.98 304.68 303.46 303.80 303.28 302.93 305.20 303.97 305.36 307.63 305.17 170.58 171.84 171.83 171.54 170.57 170.38 171.46 170.20 170.69 171.57 170.01 393.98 394.79 393.98 395.60 394.23 395.04 398.21 397.39 397.64 398.62 399.02 448.59 450.06 465.22 464.25 461.15 463.76 467.37 468.61 469.88 470.58 r 470.73 175.51 176.09 174.91 174.91 174.60 175.20 176.08 176.66 176.06 177.85 175.42 2.5 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.0 1.4 1.9 .5 -5.8 -1.5 12 1.9 .9 -1.4 .3 5 .4 .9 .7 2 .5 .6 -.3 .2 1.0 2 307.28 310.45 169.96 171.05 400.00 405.00 478.56 474.44 174.27 176.69 .8 2.3 -.2 .5 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing. Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (on a 1977= 100 base). 2 Construction 31 * Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places. 5 Based on seasonally unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output per hour of all persons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Output ' Business sector Hours of all persons 2 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Compensation per hour 3 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit labor costs Real compensation per hour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Implicit price deflator 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 1977 = 100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 1978 1979 100.8 99.6 100.8 99.3 105.8 107.9 106.0 107.9 104.9 108.3 105.1 108.7 108.5 119.1 108.6 118.9 100.8 99.4 100.9 99.2 107.6 119.5 107.7 119.7 107.3 117.0 107.0 116.5 1980 1981 1983 1984 99.3 100.7 100.3 103.0 105.3 98.8 99.8 99.2 102.4 104.3 106.7 108.9 105.5 109.9 118.8 106.7 108.5 104.9 110.1 118.8 107.5 108.2 105.2 106.7 112.8 108.0 108.7 105.7 107.5 114.0 131.5 143.7 154.9 161.5 168.1 131.3 143.6 154.8 161.5 167.9 96.7 95.7 97.3 98.2 98.1 96.6 95.7 97.2 98.2 98.0 132.5 142.7 154.5 156.8 159.7 132.9 144.0 156.0 157.7 161.0 127.6 139.8 148.1 153.0 158.5 127.8 140.3 149.2 154.3 159.3 1985 1986 106.4 107.1 104.8 105.5 122.7 125.8 122.5 125.8 115.3 117.5 116.9 119.3 175.3 180.9 174.6 179.9 98.8 100.0 98.4 99.4 164.8 168.9 166.7 170.5 163.0 166.3 164.6 168.1 1982: IV 101.0 99.7 105.0 104.2 103.9 104.5 158.3 158.2 98.0 97.9 156.8 158.7 150.2 151.4 1983: IV 103.8 103.3 113.6 114.1 109.4 110.5 163.6 163.4 98.1 97.9 157.7 158.2 155.2 156.2 1984: I 104.9 105.6 105.5 105.5 103.9 104.6 104.4 104.3 116.9 119.0 119.5 120.2 116.9 119.1 119.5 120.2 111.4 112.7 113.3 114.0 112.5 113.8 114.5 115.2 165.9 167.1 169.0 170.6 165.6 166.9 168.7 170.4 98.1 97.9 98.1 98.2 97.9 97.8 97.9 98.1 158.2 158.3 160.2 161.7 159.4 159.5 161.5 163.3 156.7 157.7 159.0 160.3 157.2 158.4 160.0 161.4 105.7 106.4 107.3 106.4 104.4 104.9 105.4 104.5 121.3 122.3 123.5 123.8 121.1 122.1 123.3 123.6 114.8 115.0 115.2 116.4 116.0 116.4 116.9 118.2 172.3 174.5 176.4 178.0 172.1 174.0 175.4 177.0 98.4 98.6 99.0 99.0 98.3 98.3 98.5 98.4 163.1 164.0 164.4 167.3 164.8 165.9 166.3 169.3 161.4 162.6 163.4 164.6 162.7 164.1 165.2 166.2 107.3 107.4 107.3 106.6 105.6 105.7 105.7 105.1 125.3 125.4 126.0 126.5 125.1 125.3 126.1 126.7 116.8 116.7 117.4 118.7 118.5 118.5 119.4 120.6 179.1 180.4 181.7 182.6 178.3 179.3 180.4 181.6 99.2 100.2 100.4 100.2 98.8 99.7 99.6 99.6 167.0 168.0 169.3 171.4 168.8 169.6 170.7 172.8 165.3 165.8 167.2 167.0 167.1 167.5 169.0 168.8 1982... n m IV 1985- I n... m IV 1986- I n m IV Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 0.8 -1.2 0.8 -1.6 5.8 2.0 6.0 1.9 4.9 3.2 5.1 3.5 8.5 9.7 8.6 9.5 0.8 -1.4 0.9 -1.6 7.6 11.1 7.7 11.2 7.3 9.0 7.0 8.9 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 -.3 1.4 -.4 2.7 2.3 — .4 1.0 -.6 3.3 1.8 1i 2.1 31 4.2 8.1 -1.2 1.7 -3.3 4.9 8.0 8 .7 28 1.5 5.7 -.7 .7 -2.7 1.6 6.0 10.5 9.2 7.8 4.2 4.1 10.5 9.4 7.8 4.3 4.0 -2.7 -1.0 1.6 1.0 -.1 -2.7 -.9 1.5 1.1 -.3 10.9 7.7 8.3 1.5 1.8 11.0 8.3 8.4 1.1 2.1 9.0 9.6 5.9 3.3 3.5 9.7 9.7 6.3 3.5 3.2 1985 1986 1.0 .7 .5 .7 3.3 2.5 3.0 2.7 2.2 1.9 2.6 2.0 4.3 3.2 4.0 3.0 .7 1.2 .4 1.1 3.2 2.5 3.5 2.3 2.9 2.1 3.3 2.2 3.0 2.4 -.5 -1.2 -3.4 -3.5 4.5 5.1 3.2 3.7 1.5 2.6 2.4 3.0 1978 1979 . 1982: IV 1983: IV 1984- I n ni IV 1985: I n m IV 1986: I n m IV 2.8 1.3 10.4 9.8 7.3 8.4 5.3 4.4 1.4 .5 2.4 3.0 4.8 3.1 4.4 2.6 -.3 -.1 2.4 2.9 -.7 -.4 12.2 7.5 1.7 2.5 10.2 7.7 1.6 2.2 7.4 4.8 2.1 2.6 7.6 4.7 2.3 2.6 5.7 2.8 4.6 3.8 5.4 3.2 4.3 4.2 .3 -1.2 1.0 .5 .1 -.8 .7 .8 1.2 .2 5.0 3.9 3.0 .3 5.1 4.6 4.0 2.6 3.4 3.2 2.7 3.1 4.0 3.7 .9 2.7 3.4 -3.2 .3 1.8 2.2 -3.5 3.6 3.3 4.1 1.0 3.2 3.0 4.0 1.0 2.6 .6 .7 4.3 2.9 1.2 1.8 4.6 4.2 5.1 4.4 3.8 3.9 4.6 3.2 3.7 .9 .5 2.0 -.1 .6 .0 .9 3.3 2.4 1.0 7.2 3.6 2.7 1.0 7.4 2.7 3.0 1.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 2.6 2.4 3.3 .5 4. -2.8 4.3 .5 -.3 -2.2 4.7 .3 2.0 1.7 5.1 .6 2.6 1.9 1.4 -.2 2.4 4.6 .8 .1 2.9 4.3 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.1 3.1 2.3 2.3 2.7 .9 4.2 .4 -.6 1.5 3.6 — .1 .0 — .7 2.3 3.3 5.0 -1.2 1.8 2.6 5.1 1.8 1.2 3.4 -.5 2.3 1.0 3.6 -.4 1 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1982 dollars, Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed. 4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers. 2 16 5 O Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production rose 0.5 percent in February, following a rise of 0.1 percent in January. The index for February was 1.7 percent above its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) MO FINAL PRODUCTS 200 DEFENSE AND SPACE 180 EQUIPMEN1 INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) 140 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 120 ./"" 140 , .MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION. DURABLE ' w 160 100 .-•'•"" ~> 120 EQUIPMENT •v ^' \ " ~^' 'CONSUMER V _,/ GOODS 100 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II 1 1 M i n i u m PER CENT* 90 _MANUF ^CTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE — _ UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION 80 ,»•"•"" ' 70 100 60 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1983 1987 i t i i i h n i i iiniljLti i M mil in i i i i i i h i i i i 1984 1985 1986 1987 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE; BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF EC DNOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Total industrial production Period Index, 1977 = 100 1977 proportion 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986r 1986: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aue Sept Oct Novr Dec r 1987- Jan ' Feb" 1 Output as percent of capacity. 100.0 110.7 108.6 111.0 103.1 109.2 121.4 123.8 125.0 125.3 123.6 124.7 124.2 124.2 124.9 125.1 124.9 125.3 126.0 126.6 126.8 127.3 Capacity utilization rate, percent * Industry production indexes, 1977 = 100 Manufacturing Percent change from year earlier Mining Total Durable Utilities Nondurable Manufacturing Industrial materials 5.9 11.2 2.0 1.0 1.7 .2 1.2 .5 .5 1.2 .5 .5 1.4 .9 .8 84.21 111.5 108.2 110.5 102.2 110.2 123.4 126.4 129.1 128.7 127.2 128.7 128.2 128.3 129.2 129.5 129.5 129.9 130.3 131.0 49.10 113.9 109.1 111.1 99.9 107.7 124.2 127.3 127.9 128.7 126.8 128.1 127.0 126.2 127.4 127.5 128.1 128.1 128.6 129.2 35.11 108.2 107.0 109.7 105.5 113.7 122.3 125.1 130.9 128.7 127.7 129.6 129.9 131.2 131.7 132.2 131.4 132.3 132.7 133.5 9.83 106.4 112.4 117.5 109.3 102.9 111.1 108.8 99.6 105.1 103.0 101.0 99.8 98.9 97.1 96.4 96.2 95.6 97.4 97.2 5.96 105.9 107.3 107.1 104.8 105.2 110.7 111.9 109.6 109.7 109.3 109.4 108.5 108.6 109.7 108.3 108.3 109.3 111.2 110.0 84.6 79.3 78.3 70.3 74.0 80.5 80.1 79.8 80.2 79.1 79.9 79.4 79.3 79.7 79.7 79.6 79.6 79.8 80.0 87.1 81.1 81.1 71.7 75.3 82.0 80.2 78.5 79.6 78.5 78.7 78.1 78.0 78.3 77.9 78.1 77.8 78.4 78.9 .5 1.7 131.1 131.8 128.8 129.9 134.3 134.4 98.8 98.8 111.3 112.1 79.9 80.1 78.9 78.9 3.9 19 2.2 71 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Products Materials Final products Intermediate products Consumer goods Equipment Period Total Total 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1 Total ' Business Construction supplies Business supplies Total Energy 25.52 103.9 102.7 104.1 101.4 109.3 118.0 120.2 124.4 6.89 99.9 88.4 89.7 82.9 98.5 112.2 112.9 116.2 18.63 105.4 108.1 109.3 108.3 113.3 120.1 122.9 127.5 19.25 120.4 124.7 129.9 120.2 121.7 139.6 145.4 142.7 14.34 124.7 125.1 127.6 113.6 115.4 134.2 139.6 138.6 3.67 105.6 115.4 119.8 133.0 143.1 156.4 170.6 180.3 12.94 110.8 106.9 107.3 101.7 111.2 124.7 130.0 136.4 5.95 108.7 100.6 98.6 88.3 100.6 114.0 118.3 124.7 6.99 112.7 112.3 114.7 113.1 120.3 133.8 140.0 146.4 42.28 110.3 105.3 107.7 96.7 102.8 114.2 114.2 113.9 11.69 104.1 105.5 104.7 101.2 98.4 103.9 103.4 99.9 Sept Oct Nov r Dec r 132.8 130.6 132.1 131.6 131.1 132.0 132.6 132.2 132.7 133.1 133.7 123.3 121.8 124.5 124.3 124.4 125.2 125.1 124.2 124.7 125.6 127.2 116.6 112.4 115.9 113.8 114.3 116.3 115.7 117.4 116.3 118.4 121.7 125.8 125.3 127.7 128.1 128.1 128.4 128.6 126.7 127.8 128.3 129.3 145.4 142.3 142.3 141.2 140.0 141.0 142.5 142.8 143.3 143.1 142.2 140.5 137.7 138.6 137.9 136.6 137.9 139.3 139.3 139.1 138.6 137.1 176.3 176.2 178.0 178.0 178.4 179.5 181.0 182.0 184.6 184.9 185.8 133.4 133.3 134.5 135.1 137.0 137.3 137.8 137.0 138.7 139.2 139.8 122.6 122.6 123.6 123.5 124.1 124.0 125.4 125.9 126.3 126.8 128.1 142.6 142.5 143.8 145.0 147.9 148.6 148.4 146.4 149.3 149.7 149.7 114.8 113.3 113.8 113.0 113.1 113.6 113.2 113.5 113.3 114.3 115.1 102.1 101.4 100.4 100.5 100.8 99.9 97.9 98.0 96.9 98.7 98.7 Jan r Feb p 133.6 134.5 126.8 127.5 119.3 121.7 129.6 129.7 142.6 143.7 137.5 138.9 186.5 187.2 140.9 141.2 130.0 130.2 150.2 115.3 115.5 99.3 99.6 Feb Mar Apr May June 1987: Nondurable goods Total 44.77 111.0 112.2 115.2 109.5 114.7 127.3 131.1 132.3 r 1986: Durable goods Defense and space equipment Includes rigs and prefabs, not shown separately. [1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Nondurable manufactures Durable manufactures Transportation equipment Primary metals Lumber and products Apparel products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Foods 5.25 95.9 71.1 71.6 66.8 85.8 104.4 111.5 110.9 2.30 102.0 92.9 90.1 82.8 100.2 109.1 113.4 123.4 2.79 98.3 97.3 96.1 87.3 95.3 102.7 100.9 103.6 4.54 112.7 115.1 118.6 120.2 129.8 146.5 153.9 163.4 8.05 111.4 106.4 112.6 103.8 114.0 121.6 127.1 133.0 7.96 106.7 111.4 113.7 114.9 120.4 126.9 130.2 133.6 127.5 122.6 126.2 124.1 125.1 125.6 125.1 127.7 125.2 125.6 127.2 116.4 108.1 112.6 108.7 110.6 111.2 108.2 112.2 107.1 107.9 111.2 120.3 120.7 121.3 121.6 120.9 120.8 122.5 125.0 125.9 129.5 132.9 102.8 102.8 103.1 102.6 101.7 102.5 102.5 102.7 104.2 105.1 106.9 156.7 157.8 161.6 161.9 164.0 165.4 164.6 163.0 167.8 168.5 167.6 132.0 130.2 132.8 131.5 134.2 134.1 134.4 133.9 133.9 132.3 134.2 132.9 132.2 133.1 133.7 134.6 134.3 135.1 134.3 133.7 134.4 134.7 127.9 131.7 112.1 118.0 107.3 169.5 1700 135.9 135.1 Iron and steel Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery 5.33 108.5 90.4 95.0 65.8 73.0 82.3 80.5 75.8 3.49 108.0 86.3 92.5 57.5 66.1 73.4 70.4 63.4 6.46 109.4 101.8 101.6 86.6 89.1 102.6 107.3 107.4 9.54 122.6 123.3 129.8 115.6 118.3 141.8 145.3 141.9 7.15 125.7 130.3 134.1 128.4 143.8 170.5 168.4 166.5 9.13 108.3 96.9 95.1 87.6 99.2 112.2 121.4 125.8 Sept Oct Nov r Dec r 80.3 76.3 78.1 74.8 71.4 73.6 73.4 74.1 74.2 76.8 73.7 69.5 64.3 65.6 60.2 58.3 61.7 60.8 61.1 62.2 64.8 60.5 108.5 107.6 108.2 106.5 106.6 105.7 105.9 107.3 108.3 107.1 108.4 143.9 141.7 140.8 141.3 140.4 142.6 142.6 140.9 142.2 141.2 140.3 164.8 165.2 166.8 166.0 163.2 166.8 167.2 166.9 167.7 168.3 170.2 1987- Jan r Feb " 72.4 73 2 58.4 108.7 108.9 139.4 140.1 168.5 168.7 Period Total 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 r 1986- Feb Mar May July Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 Total Motor vehicles and parts NEW CONSTRUCTION [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Construction contracts 3 Private Total new construction expenditures Period Residential Total Commercial and industrial 2 New housing units Total 1 Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1982=100) Commercial and industrial floor space {millions of square feet) Billions of dollars 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 250.3 249.0 257.8 244.4 279.2 327.2 355.6 377.9 r 201.5 194.0 204.4 193.6 228.5 272.0 292.8 306.7 90.1 70.4 70.2 57.7 95.7 115.1 116.0 133.9 117.2 101.1 100.0 85.4 126.6 155.1 158.8 175.6 42.0 46.7 55.0 58.7 53.8 68.6 82.7 80.1 42.3 46.2 49.4 49.5 48.1 48.2 51.3 51.1 48.8 55.0 53.3 50.8 50.7 55.2 62.8 71.2 109 97 100 100 124 135 148 155 Annual rates Annual rates 1986: Feb Mar 373.9 368.0 373.9 374.5 375.4 380.7 382.6 382.6 388.5 305.7 298.9 303.3 302.6 304.6 309.0 Nov Dec r 383.1 378.5 305.5 164.7 165.6 170.5 172.5 174.5 178.8 178.8 178.5 187.0 185.7 181.5 1987- Jan r Feb" 374.8 378.4 299.7 300.4 181.5 179.4 May July Auff Sept Oct 1 3 r r ... 310.2 308.6 315.3 311.7 1,059 904 919 690 756 955 1,097 996 124.7 126.5 129.4 132.4 135.2 136.6 137.8 138.5 139.4 140.2 137.8 87.5 81.4 81.8 78.7 78.3 79.3 81.1 79.3 77.5 76.5 74.5 53.5 51.8 51.0 51.3 51.8 50.9 50.3 50.9 50.8 49.5 49.4 68.3 69.2 70.6 71.9 70.8 71.7 72.4 74.0 73.2 71.5 73.0 157 151 165 153 159 157 155 155 151 156 155 941 840 1,011 921 911 877 949 970 861 1,025 940 139.2 138.3 68.1 70.4 50.1 50.6 75.1 78.0 150 145 996 850 Includes the following categories of private construction not shown separately: residential imJ™ %ht wtl power, gas, petroleum pipelines, and farm nonresidential. Includes hotels and motels. 3 F. W, Dodge series. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands ol units or homes, except as noted] New private housing units Period Units started, by type of structure Total 1979 . 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1,745.1 1,292.2 1,084.2 1,062.2 1,703.0 1,749.5 1,741.8 1,805.4 r 1 unit 1,194.1 852.2 705.4 662.6 1,067.6 1,084.2 1,072.4 1,179.4 2-4 units 5 or more units 122.0 109.5 91.1 80.0 113.5 121.4 93.4 84.0 429.0 330.5 287.7 319.6 522.0 544.0 576.1 542.0 New private homes Units authorized 1,551.8 1,190.6 985.5 1,000.5 1,605.2 1,681.8 1,733.3 1,761.5 Units completed Homes sold 1,870.8 1,501.6 1,265.7 1,005.5 1,390.3 1,652.2 1,703.3 1,755.8 709 545 436 412 623 639 688 750 1,725 1,788 r 1,703 r 1,801 r 1,644 r 1,750 r 1,757 r 1,740 r 1,745 r 1,774 1,888 740 900 883 777 723 691 623 744 675 r 691 765 1,884 699 680 Homes for sale at end of period * 3 r r 398 336 272 251 300 353 346 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 2 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.3 5.7 5.9 6.5 360 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1986- Feb Mar Apr May June July AUP; Sept Oct Nov Dec r. r 1987: Jan Feb " 1 1,923 1,887 1,945 1,848 1,842 1,786 1,800 1,689 1,657 1,637 1,813 1,183 1,195 1,220 1,219 1,212 1,147 1,180 1,123 1,114 1,129 1,233 106 82 81 83 79 80 88 62 85 71 108 634 610 644 546 551 559 532 504 458 437 472 1,808 1,834 1,885 1,788 1,792 1,759 1,673 1,603 1,565 1,613 1,910 1,804 1,851 1,247 1,317 76 72 481 462 1,690 1,763 Seasonally adjusted. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly compi with earlier data. 3 New series beginning March 1979. 2 r 351 338 337 338 340 350 352 355 357 r 6.9 7.3 7.5 353 360 7.7 361 363 NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted housing completions revised beginning 1984. Beginning 1984, units authorized are for 17,000 permit-issuing places and for 1978-83 data i for 16,000 places. Source; Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade According to advance data, retail sales rose 4.1 percent in February, following a decline of 7.4 percent in January. (See Note below regarding revised series.) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 200 190 180 170 160 150 650 600 550 - f 500 MANL 'FACTORING AND TRA DE INVENTO <IES 450 - - •"" 400 130 ~C ,~r-i 120 M/^NUFACTURI MG AN D TRADE SA LES '•-""' 350 T RETAIL INVENTORIES- 140 110 - RETAIL SALES 100 300 90 250 - 80 - 70 RATIO* 200 1.80 _ INVENTORY-SALES RATIO 1.60 150 - - RETAIL 1.40 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE 1.20 100 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 MI 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 111 1983 1 1 1 1 11 1 M 11 1984 1.00 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1985 1983 1987 1986 1984 1985 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Manufacturing and trade l 1986 1987 COUNCIl Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS Inventory-sales ratio 4 Retail Wholesale Inventories 3 Sales 2 Period 2 Inventories 3 Sales 2 Inventories 3 Sales 328,058 356,919 494,105 528,105 93,704 102,013 96,290 100,424 113,404 114,494 114,924 113,478 118,259 118,149 120,265 131,544 135,833 138,450 115,410 113,380 112,495 114,608 109,870 112,873 114,375 114,482 117,594 117,991 117,605 117,395 136,436 136,561 137,056 137,083 137,506 138,793 139,753 139,742 139,878 139,211 138,849 138,450 114,569 140,245 Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Manufacturing and trade ' Retail Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 ... . r 1986- Jan r Feb Mar Apr May June Sept Oct Nov Dec r 1987- Jan p Feb p 1 r r 117,438 117,090 116,684 117,715 118,675 118,960 119,804 121,523 128,331 121,655 121,062 126,938 l!7,519 122,291 See page 21 for manufacturing. Monthly average for year and total for month. Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly ita, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month. 2 3 4 20 24,914 27,089 28,059 33,041 38,817 42,851 46,954 79,963 86,777 89,339 97,858 107,755 114,495 120,483 r 44,335 44,059 43,279 44,874 45,554 45,596 46,312 47,912 54,617 47,679 47,019 52,186 r 42,930 46,716 T r 55,049 59,688 61,279 64,817 68,939 71,645 73,530 116,346 127,201 126,497 139,381 157,845 165,514 172,662 55,117 60,327 58,952 66,928 77,142 83,071 87,272 61,229 66,874 67,545 72,453 80,703 82,443 85,390 73,103 73,031 73,405 72,841 73,121 73,364 73,492 73,611 73,714 73,976 74,043 74,752 167,203 169,379 171,551 172,158 170,869 171,705 173,529 172,926 171,617 176,338 174,788 172,662 84,200 85,863 88,132 88,263 87,198 88,281 90,271 89,380 86,578 90,134 89,173 87,272 83,003 83,516 83,419 83,895 83,671 83,424 83,258 83,546 85,039 86,204 85,615 85,390 1.42 1.45 1.47 1.46 1.44 1.44 1.45 1.42 1.34 74,589 75,575 174,934 89,286 85,648 1.49 1.45 1.44 1.42 1.41 1.41 1.34 1.39 1.40 1.43 1.45 1.44 1.36 NOTE.—Revised data for wholesale and retail sales and inventories are not yet available on a basis comparable with revised data for manufacturing, shown on page 21. Data shown on the chart for manufacturing and trade are the old series, plotted through December 1986, Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In February, manufacturers' shipments and new orders rose, while inventories and unfilled orders fell slightly. (Series revised.) BILLIC)NS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLICJNS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 280 240 440 _ INVENIORIbb 200 360 320 280 _^~^ 160 _ •—' \ TOTAL — 240 — 120 DURABLE GOO )S 1 '&-*'' 80 L Ju. — v" •-'• NOI•^DURABLE G OODS -Z~-^ x 60 lllllllllll lllllllllll lllllllllll lllllllllll - DU RABLE 160 GOO )S 120 NON DURABLE GC KIDS iiiiiiiiin BILLIC)NS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) An 280 240 200 160, .^- /• RATIO* 2.2 s 2.0 . X'-v -~.-.^-* / 1.8 DUF ABLE GOO! 120 80 ~- TOTAI ^S~^ - V" NON INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO ^n r> 1.6 - —^ DURABLE GC)ODS 1.4 60, lllllllllll lllllllllll lllllllllll lllllllllll lllllllllll 1983 1984 1985 1.2 ^ mill II 1 I! 1 I I 1 1 1 lllllllllll 1987 1986 1983 1985 1984 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE lllllllllll 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturers' shipments l Manufacturers' inventories 2 Manufacturers' new orders * Durable goods Period Total Durable goods 1987 Nondurable goods Durable goods Total Nondurable goods Total Total Manufacturers' unfilled orders 3 Manufacturers' inventory — shipments ratio 4 Capital goods industries, nondefense Nondurable goods 323,393 319,094 306,302 338,849 365,177 373,495 373,849 1.67 1.65 1.95 1.80 1.74 1.74 1.70 376,395 379,686 377,060 375,692 373,634 374,181 372,090 375,043 374,047 374,514 373,849 370,526 369,424 1.72 1.75 1.71 1.72 1.70 1.73 1.71 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.61 1.69 1.64 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1980 1981 1982 ' 1983 r 1984 r . 1985 * 1986 * 1986: Feb r Mar r Apr r May r June * July T Aug T .. Sept ' Oct T . Nov r Dec r 1987: Jan ' .... Feb" 1 2 154,391 168,129 163,350 171,242 187,869 189,928 189,442 77,550 83,872 79,352 84,956 96,623 98,930 100,142 76,841 84,257 83,998 86,286 91,246 90,997 89,300 264,281 282,645 2 311,421 312,152 334,163 326,780 318,172 188,620 185,467 189,240 187,162 189,022 186,152 186,977 190,805 190,403 190,532 197,707 99,084 97,751 100,834 98,484 99,611 99,514 98,065 100,881 101,528 100,218 106,739 89,536 87,716 88,406 88,678 89,411 86,638 88,912 89,924 88,875 90,314 90,968 324,569 323,962 323,415 322,399 321,273 321,197 319,882 318,345 318,220 318,721 318,172 189,956 195,742 99,318 103,384 90,638 92,358 320,689 320,384 89,661 96,298 110,710 111,932 115,639 113,030 110,237 156,161 167,752 161,600 173,915 190,065 190,631 189,482 79,360 83,553 77,676 87,485 98,875 99,600 100,131 23,259 24,050 21,469 22,143 26,714 26,970 26,671 212,616 212,792 212,319 212,012 211,035 210,685 209,885 209,438 209,170 209,373 207,935 111,953 111,170 111,096 110,387 110,238 110,512 109,997 108,907 109,050 109,348 110,237 190,930 188,983 186,614 185,794 186,964 186,699 184,886 193,758 189,407 190,999 197,042 101,267 101,205 98,121 97,077 97,772 99,991 96,129 103,468 100,392 100,658 105,966 27,645 26,590 25,470 25,484 25,905 26,637 25,541 27,143 27,647 27,301 29,312 76,801 84,199 83,924 86,431 91,189 91,030 89,351 89,663 87,778 88,493 88,717 89,192 86,708 88,757 90,290 89,015 90,341 91,076 209,090 208,547 111,599 111,837 186,635 194,640 95,546 101,936 26,778 26,807 91,089 92,704 174,620 186,347 200,711 200,220 218,524 213,750 207,935 2 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales. End of period. Data through 1981 are book value. Data beginning 1982 are on a current-cost 2 4 Annual data are averages of monthly ratios. Data beginning 1982 are not comparable with data for prior periods. of pe 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In February, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.1 percent, seasonally adjusted. The index for finished consumer foods fell 0.5 percent while the index for other finished consumer goods rose 0.5 percent. The index for capital equipment fell 0.3 percent. INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 340 FINISHED GOODS INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 340 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 320 lUIALHNIbHtU CONSUMER GOODS EXCLUDING F nnrtt 300 ^--1~ - . / ^ 280 -1 \ —^-" rc^ -'y^ ^Z^zzz^ """^ 320 - GOODS 300 - •>—. /-'•-> 280 /^ ^^ > 260 6^< /.--\-l /& 240 X s-~SJ „'"». 260 CONSUMER FOODS CAPITAL EQ JIPMENT 240 fc? 220 ;~-$ 200 S / 220 / 200 180 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1979 1 1 1 I I1 1 1 I1 1 1 1 11111 11 11 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1980 1 1 1 1 I 1 I 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1983 1982 1981 II M i l II III 1984 1985 in ii him M i n i . 1 Ml 180 1987 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Intermediate materials Finished goods Finished goods excluding consumer foods Period Total finished goods Consumer foods Nondurable Capital equipment Consumer goods Total Total Durable Total finished consumer goods Crude materials Total Foods and feeds ' Other Total Foodstuffs and feedstuffs Other 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 p 217.7 247.0 269.8 280.7 285.2 291.1 293.7 289.6 226.2 239.5 253.6 259.3 261.8 273.3 271.2 278.0 213.3 247.8 273.3 285.8 290.8 294.8 299.0 291.1 211.5 250.8 276.5 287.8 291.4 294.1 297.3 283.4 183.2 206.2 218.6 226.7 233.1 236.8 241.5 246.9 231.3 283.9 319.6 333.6 335.3 337.3 339.3 311.1 216.5 239.8 264.3 279.4 287.2 294.0 300.5 306.5 217.9 248.9 271.3 281.0 284.6 290.3 291.8 284.9 242.2 280.3 306.0 310.4 312.3 320.0 318.7 307.6 226.1 252.6 250.3 239.4 247.9 253.1 232.8 230.2 244.4 282.3 310.1 315.7 317.1 325.0 325.0 313.3 274.3 304.6 329.0 319.5 323.6 330.8 306.1 280.0 247.9 259.2 257.4 247.8 252.2 259.5 235.0 230.6 330.0 401.0 482.3 473.9 477.4 484.5 459.2 386.8 1986: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aue: Sept Oct * Nov Dec . . . . 291.5 288.9 287.4 288.8 289.4 287.2 288.3 289.1 290.1 290.2 289.9 270.0 270.5 271.7 275.5 275.9 279.6 283.5 283.3 285.9 285.2 284.1 296.4 292.7 290.3 290.9 291.5 287.1 287.2 288.4 288.8 289.3 289.2 292.3 286.8 282.9 283.6 284.2 277.9 277.9 279.1 279.2 279.4 279.3 243.2 243.7 245.7 245.5 245.9 246.4 246.3 247.6 251.0 252.2 252.1 329.3 319.2 311.0 312.4 313.2 301.7 301.9 303.0 300.7 300.0 299.9 303.8 304.3 305.1 305.5 306.1 306.3 306.6 307.6 308.7 309.9 310.1 288.1 284.5 282.3 284.1 284.7 281.7 283.1 283.8 284.8 284.6 284.2 313.8 310.3 307.3 306.8 306.6 304.7 304.5 305.7 304.8 304.8 304.8 229.1 228.4 227.2 229.1 229.4 229.6 232.2 232.6 231.5 231.5 231.4 320.0 316.4 313.2 312.5 312.3 310.3 309.9 311.1 310.2 310.3 310.2 287.3 280.9 273.2 279.1 277.2 276.7 277.2 276.8 280.9 278.2 274.4 224.8 223.3 218.6 228.4 226.5 232.2 238.6 236.1 241.1 236.6 233.8 422.4 405.2 391.2 389.0 387.2 372.6 359.8 364.3 366.3 367.7 361.7 1987: 291.7 291.9 279.0 277.7 293.5 294.2 285.1 286.5 252.4 249.7 308.9 312.9 310.8 310.0 286.2 286.8 307.6 309.2 228.5 230.1 313.4 315.0 282.3 287.4 226.7 226.6 389.5 401.4 1 Jan Feb Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. 22 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In February, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.4 percent, seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted. The index was 2.1 percent above its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 340 340 320 320 300 300 280 280 260 260 240 240 220 220 200 200 Illllllllll 180 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 180 1985 1984 1986 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1987 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967 = 100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Transportation Housing All items Shelter Period All items l Food Total ' Total NSA 3 HomeRenters' owners' costs (Dec. costs (Dec. 1982=100) 1982=100) cars Motor fuel New Medical care Ener2 gy food, energy, and shelter 7.9 6.3 102.5 107.3 113.1 119.4 0.2 2564 285.7 3144 334.1 346.3 359.2 368.9 373.8 2393 278.6 3192 350.8 370.3 387.3 393.6 384.7 1666 178.4 1869 191.8 196.5 200.2 206.0 207.8 17.2 212.0 249.7 280.0 291.5 298.4 311.7 319.9 307.5 4.6 1660 179.3 190 2 197.6 202.6 208.5 215.2 224.4 2.9 265.6 369.1 410.9 389.4 376.4 370.7 373.8 292.1 5.4 239 7 265.9 2945 328.7 357.3 379.5 403.1 433.5 7.4 275.9 361.1 410.0 416.1 419.3 423.6 426.5 370.3 48.6 191.5 208.3 228.1 245.6 258.4 271.2 281.6 291.2 119.3 119.9 121.0 121.2 121.7 122.3 122.6 123.1 123.6 124.1 124.5 117.1 118.1 118.8 119.0 119.1 119.4 119.9 120.6 121.1 121.3 121.5 379.6 367.5 367.6 367.1 366.6 369.2 376.4 376.2 379.0 377.1 380.0 392.7 389.3 387.5 383.6 388.1 383.4 382.9 380.6 376.7 374.9 374.3 206.7 206.4 206.9 206.9 206.3 207.1 208.0 208.9 209.0 209.6 209.5 319.6 311.6 303.8 305.7 308.1 304.2 301.3 302.2 302.5 303.6 303.6 219.6 220.3 221.3 222.8 224.2 225.2 225.9 226.4 228.0 229.7 230.9 353.4 315.1 280.6 289.3 297.2 276.5 263.2 269.0 263.4 261.7 260.9 421.4 424.6 427.4 430.0 432.7 435.3 437.8 440.6 443.0 445.3 448.2 412.2 388.1 367.0 368.7 375.2 360.0 352.2 353.7 347.1 345.3 344.6 287.9 288.6 289.0 289.6 290.6 291.7 292.4 292.8 293.9 294.8 295.5 125.4 126.0 122.0 122.6 382.1 381.9 375.9 377.1 210.4 211.8 308.3 309.8 231.8 229.3 278.0 289.5 450.2 451.7 354.9 361.5 297.0 297.4 100.0 217 4 246.8 2724 289.1 298.4 311 1 322.2 328.4 16.2 2345 254.6 274 6 285 7 291.7 302 9 309.8 319.7 42.9 227 6 263.3 2935 314.7 323.1 336.5 349.9 360.2 27.8 239 7 281 7 314 7 3370 344.8 361 7 382.0 402.9 103.0 108.6 115.4 121.9 1986: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 327.5 326.0 325.3 326.3 327.9 328.0 328.6 330.2 330.5 330.8 331.1 314.6 314.4 315.1 316.5 317.4 320.2 322.7 323.9 325.2 326.5 327.2 357.1 358.0 358.8 358.6 360.1 360.1 361.0 361.8 361.9 362.0 362.7 395.0 397.5 400.2 400.9 401.6 403.0 404.6 406.7 408.3 409.3 410.3 1987: Jan Feb 333.1 334.4 328.6 329.6 364.4 365.8 412.2 414.3 8.0 19.6 Includes items not shown separately. Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc. also included through 1982. 3 Relative importance, December 1986. NOTE.—Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs repairs Fuel el and J and other upkeep Total utilities NSA Bel. imp. 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1 2 Maintenance Appar- and therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods. Data beginning 1987 calculated on a revised basis. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Change from preceding period Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate Consumer goods Consumer goods Consumer goods Period Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA 12.8 11.8 7.1 3.7 .6 1.7 1.8 -2.5 1979... 1980 1981... 1982 1983... 1984 1985... 1986'' 7.4 7.5 1.4 2.1 2.3 3.5 .5 2.9 11.1 13.5 9.2 4.0 1.6 2.1 .9 -1.4 8.8 11.4 9.2 3.9 1.9 1.8 2.7 2.1 17.5 14.2 8.5 4.2 -.8 .8 2.0 -6.9 Change, month to month Sept Oct ' Novr Dec -1.5 -.9 -.5 .5 .2 -.8 .4 .3 .3 .0 -.1 — 1.4 .2 .4 1.4 .1 1.3 1.4 -.1 .9 -.2 — .4 -2.2 -1.9 -1.4 .2 .2 -2.2 0 .4 .0 .1 -.0 0.1 .2 .3 .1 .2 .1 .1 .3 .4 .4 .1 -5.4 -10.5 -11.0 -3.7 .7 -.3 -.7 — .4 4.1 2.7 1.1 1987- Jan r Feb .6 .1 -1.8 -.5 2.1 .5 .2 3 2.2 2.4 1986: Peb Mar May July -5.0 -7.6 -2.9 8.4 8.2 12.1 12.1 11.2 9.3 2.4 1.1 -8.4 -16.4 -19.8 — 11.4 -3.6 -6.9 -7.8 -7.0 1.9 2.2 .3 0.8 1.1 2.1 2.3 2.4 1.6 1.4 2.0 3.2 4.4 3.3 8.7 10.6 2.7 .1 -9.3 -10.1 -5.8 -2.2 .1 1.9 1.0 .3 0.9 3.1 1.1 1.5 0 4.4 10.2 9.7 10.7 7.2 6.0 3.2 2.5 — .4 -4.0 -1.5 -1.9 -4.4 -4.5 -5.1 -3.9 -6.3 -9.5 -9.9 -10.2 -13.6 -9.6 -5.3 -2.6 -2.9 -3.4 5.2 6.3 1.6 3.1 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.9 2.6 __2 -1.4 -2.0 -1.8 -1.6 -2.4 -1.8 -.9 — 1.4 -1.9 -2.5 3.0 2.2 -1.5 .1 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Housing Transportation Shelter Period All items l Food Total > Total ' Renters' costs Homeowners' costs Fuel and other utilities Ap, pare! and upkeep Total ' New cars Motor fuel Medical care Energy2 All items less food, energy, and shelter Addendum: All items, percent change (annual rate) From previous quarter 3 From 3 months earlier 6 months earlier From year earlier NSA Change, December to December, NSA 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 17.4 15 1 4.3 3.1 2.6 3.8 2.7 3.8 15.2 13 7 10.2 3.6 3.5 4.2 4.3 1.8 9.9 2.4 4.7 5.2 6.0 4.6 5.1 5.9 6.3 5.0 4.5 5.1 5.9 4.6 -0.3 -.4 -.3 2 .4 .0 .2 .3 .2 .2 .2 -0.2 -.1 .2 A .3 .9 .8 .4 .4 .4 .2 -0.1 .3 .2 -.1 .4 0 .2 .2 .0 .0 2 0.3 .6 .7 .2 .2 .3 .4 .5 .4 .2 .2 0.3 .5 .9 .2 .4 .5 .2 .4 .4 .4 .3 0.3 .9 .6 .2 .1 .3 .4 .6 .4 2 .2 .7 .4 .4 .3 .5 .4 .5 .5 .7 .5 .4 .5 13.3 124 8.9 3.9 3.8 4.0 3.8 1.1 10.2 102 16.0 13.6 14.5 9.7 1.8 4.2 1.9 5.7 5.5 6.8 3.6 1.6 2.9 2.0 2.9 .9 18.2 14.7 11.0 1.7 3.9 3.1 2.6 5.9 52.2 7.4 18.9 7.5 6.8 9.4 1.6 -6.5 3.4 -1.7 2.4 -2.4 3.5 3.0 5.8 -30.6 10.1 10.0 12.5 11.0 6.4 6.1 6.7 7.7 37.4 18.1 11.9 1.3 -.5 .2 1.8 -19.7 7.2 9.9 9.4 6.1 5.0 4.4 3.7 3.4 0.4 -6.1 .3 — 10.8 .5 -10.9 3.1 .7 .6 2.7 .4 -7.0 .3 -4.8 .2 2.2 .7 -2.1 .7 -.6 .5 -.3 0.7 .8 .7 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .5 .5 .7 -3.7 -5.8 -5.4 .5 1.8 -4.1 -2.2 .4 -1.9 -.5 2 0.2 .2 .1 2 .3 .4 .2 .1 .4 .3 .2 .4 .3 3.0 1.9 .5 11.3 13.5 10.4 6.1 3.2 4.3 3.6 1.9 Chimge, month to month 1986: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1987: Jan Feb -1.0 -0.4 -.9 -.1 -.5 .2 -1.0 0 1.2 .O — 1.2 .4 j .4 -.6 .4 -1.0 .0 -.5 .3 -.2 -.0 .4 .3 .4 .7 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc., also included through 1982. 3 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. NOTE.—Data beginning January 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeowner- 24 -1.4 -2.5 — 2.5 .6 .8 -1.3 -1.0 .3 .1 .4 0 1.5 .5 .4 -1.1 6.6 4.1 1.6 -1.3 .1 2.5 2.6 -3.7 -1.7 1.6 2.9 2.5 2.0 2.6 3.0 2.5 2.8 1.7 .4 -.1 .1 -.5 .4 1.8 2.7 2.7 2.2 3.2 2.3 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.1 4.4 5.2 3.5 4.1 1.4 2.1 1.5 -1.3 ship costs and therefore are not strictly comparable with data for earlier periods. Data beginning 1987 calculated on a revised basis. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers in March were unchanged from their February level. Prices paid by farmers in January rose 0.6 percent from their October level. INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE) "180 180 PRICES PAID 160 160 140 140 PRICES RECEIVED - 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 RATION 140 60 RATION 140 Illllllllll — — 120 120 100 80 "*—'"^—,~^~^ — 100 ~~ "\^ - 60 Ill I I 1 I I 1 I I 1979 | | | | | | | | | | |I l l l l l l l l l l 1980 \ "•>—. 1 = _-, ^-—| 80 •*' " — —Illllllllll 1981 Illllllllll 1982 1983~ Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 1984 1985 1986 1987 60 I/RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE [1977=100] Prices paid by farmers Prices received by farmers Period 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1986- Mar Apr May June Sept Oct Nov .. Dec 1987' Jan Febr Mar 1 2 All farm products Livestock and products Crops 132 134 139 133 135 142 128 123 122 121 123 122 125 125 122 121 124 121 121 122 122 116 125 134 121 128 138 120 106 111 114 115 110 106 101 97 97 103 99 99 99 101 Includes items not shown separately. Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and3 wage rates. See also footnote 3. Beginning March 1986, prices paid by fanners are available only for first month in quarter, and for each month the received/paid ratio is based on latest data available. 147 144 143 145 141 146 136 138 132 127 131 133 143 149 146 145 145 141 142 144 142 All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates l Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates 123 138 151 159 161 165 163 159 (3) 159 (3) (3) 159 (3) (3) 158 (3) (3) 159 (3) (3) 125 139 151 159 159 162 157 151 (3) 151 (3) (3) 151 (3) (3) 149 (3) (3) 149 (3) (3) Production items 125 138 148 153 152 155 151 146 (3) 145 (3) (3) 144 (3) (3) 142 (3) (3) 143 (3) (3) Ratio 2 107 97 92 84 84 86 79 77 76 76 77 77 79 79 77 77 78 77 76 77 77 NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required bv law. The indexes have been converted to a 1977 — 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES Ml and M2 fell slightly in February, while M3 rose slightly. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,800 3,600 BIUIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 3,800 3,600 3,200 3,200 2,800 2,800 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 M2 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 800 800 700 700 600 600 500 — 500 400 400 300 300 1980 1981 1983 1982 1984 1986 * AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1987 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period 1980198119821983198419851986- Dec r Dec ' Dec ' Dec ' Dec ' Dec ' Dec F 1986- Feb T Mar r Apr ' . .. May '. July r. Aue ' .. .. Sept r Oct ' Nov ' Dec ' . ... 1987- Jan r Feb p Ml M2 M3 Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OCDs) Ml plus overnight RPs and Eurodollars, MMMF balances (general purpose and broker/dealer), MMDAs, and savings and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, term RPs, term Eurodollars, and institution-only MMIVrF balances M3 plus other liquid assets Debt Debt of domestic nonfinanciaL sectors (monthly average) l Percent change from year or 6 months earlier z Ml M2 M3 Debt 416.6 443.2 481.3 526.9 557.5 627.0 730.5 1,633.1 1,795.5 1,953.8 2,184.6 2,369.1 2,569.6 2,799.8 1,990.9 2,236.4 2,443.1 2,692.8 2,985.7 3,205.6 3,489.2 2,327.6 2,598.9 2,853.0 3,154.6 3,529.3 3,838.6 4,141.1 3,895.1 4,275.5 4,658.0 5,206.3 5,946.0 6,774.9 7,626.6 6.5 6.4 8.6 9.5 5.8 12.5 16.5 8.9 9.9 8.8 11.8 8.4 8.5 9.0 10.2 12.3 9.2 10.2 10.9 7.4 8.8 9.7 9.8 8.9 11.8 14.2 13.9 12.6 632.2 640.5 648.2 659.6 667.5 676.6 687.0 693.1 701.4 712.4 730.5 2,582.4 2,598.9 2,623.9 2,647.4 2,667.6 2,693.8 2,718.4 2,736.3 2,760.7 2,775.4 2,799.8 3,242.8 3,264.4 3,293.2 3,314.9 3,338.4 3,368.5 3,396.2 3,420.7 3,441.2 3,459.5 3,489.2 3,880.2 3,894.9 3,920.0 3,951.9 3,972.5 3,998.9 4,027.1 4,055.9 4,081.8 4,108.2 4,141.1 6,918.8 6,963.5 7,023.9 7,095.8 7,167.5 7,235.5 7,315.7 7,392.8 7,453.7 7,530.0 7,626.6 9.6 9.8 11.4 13.4 13.3 15.7 18.1 17.1 17.1 16.7 19.8 5.8 5.8 7.1 7.8 7.8 9.5 10.8 10.9 10.7 9.9 10.2 7.5 7.5 8.4 8.6 8.5 9.0 9.7 9.8 9.2 8.9 9.2 15.2 14.7 14.5 13.9 11.9 10.8 11.8 12.7 12.6 12.6 13.2 737.6 737.2 2,822.0 2,821.3 3,515.8 3,519.5 4,173.1 7,711.1 18.8 15.1 9.7 7.7 8.9 7.4 13.6 1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfmancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. 26 L NOTE.—See p. 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Demand deposits Currency Period Other checkable deposits (OCDs) Overnight repurchase agreements (RPs), net, plus overnight Eurodollars Money market mutual fund balances General purpose and broker/ dealer NSA 1980: Dec r .. 116.7 1981: Decr .. 124.1 1982: Dec r .. 134.3 1983: Dec r .. 148.3 1984: Dec ' .. 158.5 1985: Dec T .. 170.6 1986: Decr.. 183.5 Nov , ^ 517.1 521.0 526.1 531.6 541.0 546.6 553.6 558.8 564.4 568.7 571.3 304.8 306.6 311.1 316.8 321.8 327.4 334.6 341.4 350.4 358.5 366.2 889.8 892.0 893.1 888.0 883.0 880.9 876.7 872.2 864.7 857.1 853.3 447.6 448.5 451.3 447.6 447.5 448.3 449.4 448.5 445.7 445.9 447.0 70.7 71.7 71.6 r 74.1 r 75.1 r 74.7 r 75.4 r 78.1 r 78.2 r 82.6 r 82.2 79.1 82.7 81.4 79.7 80.0 r 78.2 r 77.2 r 79.9 r 76.6 r 78.4 r 83.2 80.5 81.2 81.9 82.7 83.5 84.3 85.3 86.4 87.7 89.8 91.7 84.0 84.7 574.2 570.6 376.7 387.3 851.3 847.2 449.6 447.8 r r 92.7 305.1 300.7 240.0 242.7 r r 1 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. r 80.9 83.5 securities Bankers' acceptances Commercia paper NSA 67.7 70.2 74.1 76.1 75.0 77.5 80.8 84.4 84.5 84.4 84.1 0.0 .0 ury m bonds 43.2 379.0 417.4 513.2 571.3 181.0 186.2 191.4 193.2 197.3 199.7 200.5 202.2 206.9 207.1 r 207.6 209.0 210.8 Eurodollars (net) Shortterm Treas- c oav- 72.3 67.8 68.4 67.4 68.2 r 69.0 66.3 r 71.8 r 74.7 r 72.8 r 77.5 r 76.7 r 77.3 83.8 79.9 NSA NSA Term 50.3 67.5 81.7 91.5 82.9 76.6 83.2 183.1 186.0 189.9 195.5 199.6 204.5 210.4 214.7 220.4 225.9 232.3 186.0 187.2 Sept... Oct Term repurchase agreements (RPs) 34.0 36.0 34.5 51.8 62.2 66.0 82.2 270.3 274.6 277.7 282.2 285.0 288.2 291.2 292.2 293.4 297.8 308.3 Dec Aug Large denomination time deposits l 259.8 302.1 326.2 326.2 417.0 436.1 447.0 178.3 232.3 1987: Jan . Feb p Apr... *-Jr May J June July.. denomination time deposits l 728.7 823.3 851.0 783.8 885.3 884.2 853.3 15.2 38.0 51.1 43.2 62.7 65.1 84.1 30.5 80.2 104.7 131.4 145.5 Small Savings deposits 400.8 344.3 357.3 306.2 288.8 303.6 366.2 61.6 150.6 185.2 138.2 167.5 176.5 207.6 172.7 173.8 174.4 175.8 176.7 177.6 179.0 179.7 181.2 182.4 183.5 Mar NSA 28.3 35.9 38.8 53.8 56.3 70.3 77.3 265.2 234.6 237.9 242.3 248.3 272.2 308.3 1986: Feb NSA Institution only Money market deposit accounts (HMD As) 86.4 90.5 133.4 149.4 183.7 212.6 263.5 304.6 292.4 32.1 40.0 44.5 45.1 45.7 42.4 37.5 98.9 105.3 113.6 133.0 160.3 206.6 230.2 305.7 299.1 298.3 303.8 298.2 r 292.5 r 288.7 T 288.0 r 286.9 r 292.4 r 292.4 42.5 41.4 40.6 39.8 39.8 39.0 37.3 36.9 37.7 38.0 37.5 208.6 208.8 206.1 210.7 212.6 214.5 219.7 223.9 228.4 228.4 230.2 287.2 37.7 239.7 68.0 71.1 74.2 79.4 91.7 r r NOTE.—Travelers checks are a component of money stock but are not shown here. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Net change in installment credit outstanding l Installment credit outstanding (end of period) Period Total 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: Automobile Revolving Mobile home Other Total Automobile Revolving Mobile home Other Dec.. Dec Dec r Decr Decr Dec " Decr Dec ' Decr 261,976 296,483 295,763 310,965 325,136 373,048 446,183 522,805 577,789 98,739 112,475 111,936 119,610 125,440 145,874 172,352 208,057 245,056 45,202 53,357 54,894 60,750 66,007 78,369 99,620 122,021 134,940 16,921 18,207 18,264 19,308 21,728 22,919 24,710 25,488 25,710 101,114 112,444 110,669 111,297 111,961 125,886 149,501 167,239 172,083 40,501 34,507 720 15,202 14,171 47,912 73,135 76,622 54,984 17,791 13,736 539 7,674 5,830 20,434 26,478 35,705 36,999 8,513 8,155 1,537 5,856 5,257 12,362 21,251 22,401 12,919 559 1,286 57 1,044 2,420 1,191 1,791 778 222 13,638 11,330 1 775 628 664 13,925 23,615 17,738 4,844 1986: J a n r . Feb r Mar r Apr r Mav r June r July r Aug r Sept r Oct ' Nov r Dec r 529,118 534,198 536,589 542,521 546,759 551,771 558,054 563,661 571,275 576,862 577,645 577,789 211,528 214,322 215,460 218,017 221,012 224,412 227,821 231,202 239,015 243,395 242,998 245,056 123,921 125,509 126,534 128,901 129,618 130,737 132,183 133,175 133,118 133,812 134,388 134,940 25,573 25,666 25,751 25,703 25,674 25,806 25,891 25,940 25,731 25,783 25,732 25,710 168,097 168,701 168,844 169,899 170,456 170,815 172,160 173,345 173,412 173,873 174,527 172,083 6,319 5,080 2,390 5,932 4,239 5,012 6,283 5,607 7,614 5,587 782 144 3,473 2,795 1,137 2,558 2,994 3,401 3,408 3,381 7,813 4,380 -396 2,057 1,898 1,588 1,025 2,367 717 1,119 1,446 992 -58 694 576 552 86 93 85 -48 29 133 84 49 209 52 -51 -21 861 604 143 1,055 557 359 1,345 1,185 67 461 654 -2,444 1987: Jan p 578,325 246,078 134,574 25,841 171,833 536 1,022 -366 130 -250 1 For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month. NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1980. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK LOANS AND SECURITIES, AND RESERVES Commercial and industrial loans fell slightly in February. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) f— ALL COMMERCIAL BANK, TOTAL — 1,200 •—-|r r ' — .----"" ____ _ _ _ _ - - - - — — LO ANS 1,400 1,000 800 — — 600 400 400 .,., - U.S. G( DVERNMENT S ECURITIES \ J.^- ^' 200 -•._-.- 160 ==-—«»—""•"° 5 r*£**^^~ x" — -' "*v ^ .— — • — / 200 160 1 --""' Ol HER SECURITIE S 120 80 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,200 —AND~r"LEA:;ES ^^- 800 600 r^""^" —• 1,400 1,000 .-—-—— --—I 120 I iimlimi iimlimi mi||mii nmlimi nmlmii 1979 1982 1981 1980 1983 Illllilllll Illllilllll miilmii 1985 1984 80 1987 1986 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Depository institutions 3 All commercial banks 1 Total loans and securities 2 Total 2 19791980: 19811982: 198319841985: 1986- Commercial and industrial loans U.S. Government securities Other securities Total Nonborrowed Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 1,136.2 1,240.5 1,308.2 1,401.1 1,553.5 1,722.6 1,900.4 2,078.7 849.9 915.4 968.4 1,033.9 1,123.7 1,319.7 1,449.7 1,576.2 291.3 327.4 355.9 392.5 414.0 472.9 499.5 536.9 144.4 170.6 179.2 201.9 259.7 260.9 273.1 309.1 142.0 154.5 160.6 165.3 170.1 142.1 177.6 193.4 29.15 30.99 32.19 34.41 36.16 39.51 45.61 55.64 27.67 29.30 31.55 33.78 35.38 36.32 44.29 54.81 1986- Feb Mar Apr May 1,473.7 1,491.8 1,501.5 1,501.5 1,505.3 1,513.4 1,524.5 1,534.7 1,537.7 1,549.5 1,576.2 502.4 506.1 506.7 506.7 508.7 508.7 510.4 512.1 514.1 520.3 536.9 273.6 269.5 271.1 274.1 274.8 285.4 290.9 294.3 299.6 304.8 309.1 188.1 183.3 182.1 181.9 183.6 186.1 192.3 200.7 196.7 194.8 193.4 r 46.37 r 46.87 "47.28 r 48.58 r 49.45 " 50.49 51.32 51.81 52.40 53.82 55.64 r 45.49 r 46.10 r Sept Oct Nov Dec 1,935.5 1,944.6 1,957.5 1,957.5 1,963.7 1,985.0 2,007.7 2,029.6 2,034.0 2,049.0 2,078.7 1987- Jan Feb" 2,110.6 2,114.5 1,608.0 1,608.9 551.2 550.4 313.9 316.2 188.7 189.4 56.64 56.49 July 1 Data are prorated averages of Wednesday figures for domestically chartered banks and averages of month-end data for foreign-related institutions. Data beginning January 1984 are not strictly comparable with data for earlier periods, largely because beginning January 1984 certain obligations of States and political subdivisions are included in loans rather than in other securities. 28 2 3 Borrowings (millions of dollars, unadjusted) Reserves adjusted for changes in reserve requirements Loans and leases Period Required Total Seasonal 28.70 30.48 31.87 33.91 35.59 38.66 44.55 54.27 1,473 1,690 636 634 774 3,186 1,318 827 81 116 54 33 96 113 56 38 49.75 50.45 50.80 51.56 53.07 54.81 45.27 45.97 46.48 47.74 48.51 49.58 50.58 51.08 51.66 52.85 54.27 884 761 893 876 803 741 872 1,008 841 752 827 56 68 73 94 108 116 144 137 99 70 38 56.06 55.93 55.57 55.28 580 556 34 71 46.39 r 47.70 r 48.64 r r Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States. Data are averages of daily figures. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Uses Sources External Period Total Credit market funds Internal ' Securities Total Total 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 "..... 1985: I rr m IV 1986- I n m IV" mortgages Loans and short-term paper and Total Other 2 Capital expenditures 3 Increase in financial assets Discrepancy (sources less uses) 328.5 352.6 347.6 382.5 327.6 431.3 503.4 483.1 466.5 182.3 197.6 200.1 239.5 242.3 285.7 326.3 352.5 358.3 146.3 .155.1 147.5 143.0 85.3 145.6 177.1 130.6 108.2 85.0 87.8 94.3 93.7 80.6 87.6 116.4 82.1 92.5 33.3 21.0 53.1 22.8 44.0 57.3 -10.0 15.3 22.5 51.8 66.9 41.2 70.9 36.6 30.3 126.5 66.8 70.0 61.2 67.3 53.2 49.3 4.7 58.0 60.7 48.5 15.7 309.4 362.8 343.2 349.2 292.0 399.1 469.1 438.5 431.9 216.9 238.3 244.1 286.3 256.3 274.8 371.2 353.1 352.4 92.4 124.5 99.1 62.8 35.7 124.3 97.9 85.4 79.5 19.2 -10.1 4.4 33.3 35.6 32.2 34.3 44.6 34.6 432.2 421.9 505.0 573.2 339.4 350.3 365.2 355.1 92.8 71.6 139.8 218.1 71.7 58.2 53.0 145.6 -10.1 29.4 17.0 24.8 81.8 28.8 36.0 120.8 21.1 13.4 86.8 72.5 407.8 406.6 417.3 522.3 340.1 349.8 349.0 373.5 67.8 56.8 68.3 148.8 24.3 15.3 87.7 50.9 412.5 452.7 403.8 596.4 361.7 355.6 359.6 356.4 50.8 97.1 44.2 240.0 88.5 65.8 38.2 177.2 52.8 48.8 17.8 294 35.7 17.0 20.4 206.6 -37.8 31.3 6.0 62.8 403.0 431.2 358.6 534.3 380.2 354.4 336.2 338.8 22.8 76.8 22.4 195.5 9.6 21.4 45.2 62.1 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained abroad. 2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars, except as noted] Current liabilities Current assets End of period Total QFR-FEB series: 2 1978 . . 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Cash U.S. Government securities Notes and accounts receivable Inventories Other current assets Total Notes and accounts payable Other current liabilities Net working capital Current ratio * ,043.7 ,214.8 ,328.3 ,419.6 ,437.1 ,575.9 ,703.0 ,784.6 105.5 118.0 127.0 135.6 147.8 171.8 173.6 189.2 17.2 16.7 18.7 17.7 23.0 31.0 36.2 33.0 388.0 459.0 507.5 532.5 517.4 583.0 633.1 671.5 431.8 505.1 543.0 584.0 579.0 603.4 656.9 666.0 101.1 116.0 132.1 149.7 169.8 186.7 203.2 224.9 669.5 807.3 890.6 971.3 986.0 1,059.6 1,163.6 1,233.6 383.0 460.8 514.4 547.1 550.7 595.7 647.8 682.7 286.5 346.5 376.2 424.1 435.3 463.9 515.8 550.9 374.3 407.5 437.8 448.3 451.1 516.3 539.5 551.0 1.559 1.505 1.492 1.462 1.458 1.487 1.464 1.447 1983: IV 1,575.9 171.8 31.0 583.0 603.4 186.7 1,059.6 595.7 463.9 516.3 1.487 1984: I 1,619.5 1,650.0 1,685.9 1,703.0 167.6 164.9 161.3 173.6 35.4 37.2 33.0 36.2 606.4 622.6 639.1 633.1 622.2 632.5 659.3 656.9 187.9 192.9 193.2 203.2 1,093.1 1,126.3 1,155.0 1,163.6 601.9 623.4 642.2 647.8 491.2 502.9 512.9 515.8 526.5 523.7 530.8 539.5 1.482 1.465 1.460 1.464 n m IV 1,722.7 1,734.6 1,763.0 1,784.6 167.5 167.1 176.3 189.2 35.7 35.4 32.6 33.0 650.3 654.1 661.0 671.5 665.7 666.7 675.0 666.0 203.5 211.2 218.2 224.9 1,174.1 1,182.9 1,211.9 1,233.6 636.9 651.7 670.4 682.7 537.1 531.2 541.5 550.9 548.6 551.7 551.1 551.0 1.467 1.466 1.455 1.447 1986- I p 1,795.7 195.3 31.0 663.4 679.6 226.3 1,222.3 668.4 553.9 573.4 1.469 n m IV 1985: I 1 Total current assets divided by total current liabilities. 2 Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations. Effective mid-1982, responsibility for the Quarterly Financial Report was transferred to the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census from the Federal Trade Commission. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census), and Federal Trade Commission. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates were little changed in March. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] U.S. Treasury security yields Period 3-month bills (new issues) 1 1985 1986 1986: Mar May June July Aug Sept. Oct Nov Dec 1987: Jan Feb Mar Week ended: 1987: Mar 7 14 21 28 Apr 4 1 10-year Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) 4 Prime commercial paper, 6 months 1 Discount rate (N.Y. F.R. Bank) 5 Prime rate charged by banks 5 New-home mortgage yields (FHLBB) 6 13.91 13.00 •11.10 12.44 10.62 7.68 11.23 11.57 9.47 10.15 9.18 7.38 14.17 13.79 12.04 12.71 11.37 9.02 14.76 11.89 8.89 10.16 8.01 6.39 13.41 11.02 8.50 8.80 7.69 6.33 18.87 14.86 10.79 12.04 9.93 8.33 14.70 15.14 12.57 12.38 11.55 10.17 6.59 6.06 6.12 6.21 5.84 5.57 5.19 5.18 5.35 5.49 7.30 6.86 7.27 7.41 6.86 6.49 6.62 6.56 6.46 6.43 7.78 7.30 7.71 7.80 7.30 7.17 7.45 7.43 7.25 7.11 7.07 7.32 7.67 7.98 7.62 7.31 7.14 7.12 6.86 6.93 9.00 8.79 9.09 9.13 8.88 8.72 8.89 8.86 8.68 8.49 7.08 6.47 6.53 6.63 6.24 5.83 5.61 5.61 5.69 5.88 7.50-7.00 7.00-6.50 6.50-6.50 6.50-6.50 6.50-6.00 6.00-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 9.50- 9.00 9.00- 8.50 8.50- 8.50 8.50- 8.50 8.50- 8.00 8.00- 7.50 7.50- 7.50 7.50- 7.50 7.50- 7.50 7.50- 7.50 10.50 10.27 10.22 10.15 10.30 10.26 10.17 10.02 9.91 9.69 5.45 5.59 5.56 6.41 6.56 6.58 7.08 7.25 7.25 6.63 6.66 6.71 8.36 8.38 8.36 5.76 5.99 6.10 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 7.50- 7.50 7.50- 7.50 7.50- 7.50 r 5.47 5.63 5.58 5.55 5.72 6.52 6.56 6.53 6.63 7.18 7.22 7.21 7.27 6.59 6.64 6.76 6.86 8.34 8.36 8.36 8.36 6.01 6.08 6.09 6.15 5.50-5.50 5 50 5 50 5.50-5.50 5 50 5 50 5.50- 7.50- 7.50 7 50 7 50 7.50- 7.50 7 50 7 50 7.50- 9.51 9.25 5 i issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury De- Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Series'excludes public utility issues for January 17, 1984 through October 11, 1984 due to lack of appropriate issues. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 2 Bank-discount basis. Yields on the more actively trsu 3-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor's) 3 14.44 12.92 10.45 11.89 9.64 7.06 14.029 10.686 8.63 9.58 7.48 5.98 1981 1982 1983 1984 Constant maturities 2 30 6 COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices rose in March. INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 (RATIO SCALE) INDE> , DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 (RATIO SCALE) 180 180 , 160 160 y/ 140 140 COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX (NYSE) 120 / r-S \ 100 120 ^/ 100 ^J~~ 80 /^ r^~~-\\s^ ~ /\ 60 80 / 60 ^J 40 1 1111 1 1 1 1| 1 1979 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1980 1 1 1 11'ih1 1 11 I 1 1 1 111 1 1 1 1 I I 1 i 1 1 i I 1984 1983 1982 1981 1 1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 l 1 l l l l l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 l l l l 1985 PERC:ENT PERC ENT 20 20 EAR NINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS (S&P) 15 " ^^T--~ 10 ^N 1 0 1 1 1 1 1979 1 1 1981 1980 1 r——" i i i 15 10 ^ 5 1 1 1982 1983 -—•^1 1 1 1984 1 1985 J 5 1 1986 Common stock prices 1 New York Stock Exchange indexes (Dec. 31, 1965 = 50) Industrial Transportation Finance Utility 153.94 155.07 151.28 151.73 150.23 152.90 145.56 143.89 142.97 144.29 1,757.35 1,807.05 1,801.80 1,867.70 1,809.92 1,843.45 1,813.47 1,817.04 1,883.65 1,924.07 232.33 237.97 238.46 245.30 240.18 245.00 238.27 237.36 245.09 248.61 6.08 78.54 153.32 158.41 162.41 2,065.13 2,202.34 2,292.61 264.51 280.93 292.47 3.50 3.43 3.42 3.36 3.43 3.36 3.43 3.49 3.40 3.38 3.17 3.02 2.93 160.84 163.03 162.69 162.78 163.32 2,221.35 2,252.22 2,267.04 2,290.65 2,360.97 283.28 287.38 290.12 293.15 300.05 3.00 2.94 2.94 2.85 2.97 1986: Mar 133.97 137.27 137.37 140.82 138.32 140.91 137.06 136.74 140.84 142.12 152.75 157.30 158.59 163.15 158.06 160.10 156.52 156.56 162.10 163.85 128.66 126.17 122.21 120.65 112.03 111.24 114.06 120.04 122.27 121.26 151.17 160.23 166.46 175.60 189.17 198.95 126.61 135.49 138.55 78.19 77.15 161.58 163.80 165.30 166.81 170.31 191.29 194.52 197.17 199.64 204.60 135.89 138.12 138.26 138.24 140.27 p Week ended: 1987' Feb 28 Mar 7 14 21 28 1 77.41 77.24 76.91 76.88 78.02 Average of daily closing prices. Includes all the* stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE. Includes 30 stocks. 4 Includes 500 stocks. 5 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings2 3 Earnings price ratio 68.06 69.46 68.65 70.69 74.20 77.84 74.56 73.38 75.77 76.07 71.99 Mar Dividendprice ratio 71.36 73.52 Jan Standard & Poor's composite index (194143=10) 4 95.34 89.28 114.21 147.20 38.91 39.75 47.00 46.44 56.75 Feb Dow-Jones industrial average 3 11.96 11.60 8.03 10.02 8.12 72.61 60.41 89.36 85.63 104.11 119.87 Oct Nov Dec 1987 5.20 5.81 4.40 4.64 4.25 3.49 85.44 78.18 107.45 108.01 123.79 155.85 Sept 0 128.05 119.71 160.41 160.46 186.84 236.34 74.02 68.93 92.63 92.46 108.09 136.00 June July 1 932.92 884.36 1,190.34 1,178.48 1,328.23 1,792.76 1981 1982 1983 1984... 1985 1986 May 1 Common stocksyields (percent) 2 Period Composite 1 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISER SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION 1987- 40 1987 1986 r 5.86 6.43 price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first 5 months of fiscal 1987, there was a deficit of $93.9 billion compared with a deficit of $106.2 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,100 |1,100 — RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS^ 1,000 1,000 900 900 OUTLAYS;/ 800 800 700 700 600 600 RECEIPTS^ 500 500 400 400 SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-)^ 0 -100 -100 -200 -200 1979 1981 1980 1982 1983 1984 1985 1987 1986 1988 FISCAL YEARS V INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES. DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Off-budget On-budget Total Gross Federal debt (end of period) Fiscal year or period Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit Receipts Outlays (-) Surplus or deficit Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) (-) Total Held by the public 1977 1978 1979 279.1 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 332.3 371.8 96.0 409.2 458.7 503.5 -53.2 -73.7 14 7 -53.6 59.2 -40.2 216.6 231.7 63.2 278.7 314.2 365.3 271.9 302.2 76.6 328.5 369.1 403.5 -55.3 -70.5 13.3 -49.7 -54.9 -38.2 62.5 66.4 18.0 76.8 85.4 98.0 60.4 69.6 19.4 80.7 89.7 100.0 2.0 -3.2 -1.4 -3.9 4.3 -2.0 544.1 631.9 646.4 709.1 780.4 833.8 396.9 480.3 498.3 551.8 610.9 644.6 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 851.8 -73.8 -78.9 -127.9 -207.8 -185.3 403.9 469.1 474.3 453.2 500.4 476.6 543.0 594.3 661.2 686.0 -72.7 73.9 -120.0 208.0 -185.6 113.2 130.2 143.5 147.3 166.1 114.3 135.2 151.4 147.1 165.8 -1.1 5.0 -7.9 .2 .3 914.3 1,003.9 1,147.0 1,381.9 1,576.7 715.1 794.4 929.4 1,141.8 1,312.6 1985 1986 1987 1 1988 ! 734.1 769.1 842.4 916.6 946.3 989.8 1,015.6 1,024.3 -212.3 -220.7 -173.2 -107.8 547.9 568.9 628.4 674.5 769.5 806.3 821.1 821.9 -221.6 -237.5 -192.7 -147.4 186.2 200.2 214.0 242.1 176.8 183.5 194.5 202.4 9.4 16.7 19.5 39.7 1,827.2 2,132.9 2,372.4 2,585.5 1,509.9 1,746.1 1,908.4 2,015.1 Cumulative total, first 5 months: Fiscal year 1986 Fiscal year 1987 307.3 327.2 413.5 421.2 -106.2 -93.9 230.2 243.6 339.7 342.4 - 109.5 -98.8 77.1 83.6 73.8 78.8 3.3 4.9 1,983.4 2,245.1 1,629.0 1,834.3 1975 1976 1 Estimates from Budget of the United Slates Government, Fiscal Year 1988, January 1987. 32 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 5 months of fiscal 1987, receipts were $19.9 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $7.7 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 400 RECEIPTS;/ 400 INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES ' ~r 300 — -"" ' ""CORPORATION INCOME TAXES / 700 , 200 100 __s^CI_ BOTHER RECEIPTS 0 300 SOCIAL INSURANCE TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS 200 100 — | | 1 1 1 0 OUTLAYS-!/ 700 NONDEFENSE \ 600 - - 600 500 500 400 400 NATIONAL DEFENSE 300 300 200 200 100 100 1979 1981 1980 1982 1984 1983 1985 1986 1988 1987 -NT FISCAL YEARS J/ INCLUDES ON.BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] On-budget and off-budget outlays On-budget and off-budget receipts Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes Social insurance taxes and contributions 355.6 399.6 463.3 131.6 157.6 181.0 217.8 41.4 54.9 60.0 65.7 90.8 106.5 121.0 138.9 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 517.1 244.1 599.3 285.9 297.7 288.9 298.4 64.6 61.1 49.2 37.0 56.9 157.8 182.7 201.5 1985 1986 1987 i 1988 ' 734.1 769.1 61.3 63.1 104.8 117.2 265.2 283.9 916.6 334.5 349.0 364.0 392.8 307.3 327.2 150.7 158.1 18.3 22.4 Fiscal year Total 1976 1977 1978 1979 298.1 617.8 600.6 666.5 842.4 Cumulative total, first 5 months: Fiscal year 1986 Fiscal year 1987 i 1 Nationa defense Other Total Total Department of Defense, military International affairs Health Medicare Income security Social security Net interest 88.1 6.4 6.4 7.5 7.5 15.7 17.3 18.5 20.5 15.8 19.3 22.8 26.5 60.8 61.0 61.5 66.4 73.9 85.1 93.9 104.1 26.7 29.9 35.4 42.6 82.8 93.0 114.7 119.6 23.2 26.9 27.4 28.6 30.4 32.1 39.1 46.6 52.6 57.5 86.5 99.7 107.7 122.6 112.7 118.5 139.6 156.0 170.7 178.2 52.5 68.7 85.0 89.8 111.1 131.4 133.5 125.4 122.3 118.6 188.6 198.8 219.4 129.4 136.0 137.5 139.0 131.8 141.7 137.2 116.5 80.1 84.2 60.1 58.9 63.2 58.5 89.6 97.2 104.5 116.3 95.3 102.3 113.7 134.0 157.5 185.3 131.0 153.8 180.7 209.9 227.4 204.4 220.8 12.7 13.1 12.3 11.8 15.9 333.2 73.0 946.3 73.1 989.8 72.2 1,015.6 73.4 1,024.3 252.7 273.4 282.2 297.6 245.4 265.6 274.2 289.3 16.2 14.2 14.6 15.2 33.5 35.9 39.7 38.9 65.8 70.2 71.6 73.0 128.2 119.8 124.9 124.8 107.4 116.5 30.9 30.3 110.1 114.1 106.8 110.7 4.8 6.0 14.8 15.7 28.6 30.8 51.9 53.0 34.3 36.6 37.7 40.8 50.6 69.5 69.3 65.6 71.8 209.0 239.4 301.5 371.8 409.2 458.7 503.5 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 851.8 413.5 421.2 207.9 Other i Estimates from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1988, January 1987. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. NOTE.—Data shown here exclude the transition quarter. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the fourth quarter of 1986, according to preliminary estimates, Federal receipts rose $21.1 billion (annual rate) and expenditures rose $12.9 billion, yielding a deficit of $189.2 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1,200 1,000 1,000 EXPENDITURES 800 800 600 600 RECEIPTS 400 400 200 200 SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-) -200 -200 I I I 1978 I I I I 1979 I I 1982 1981 1980 1983 1984 1985 1986 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Government expenditures Federal Government receipts Period Tote] Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Contributions for social insurance Total Purchases of goods and services Transfer Payments Grantsin-aid to State and local governments Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Fiscal year: 1984 1985 1986 1987 l 712.6 774.6 814.7 874.6 302.4 340.2 355.8 368.7 76.3 71.7 83.0 108.9 54.9 56.5 52.2 53.8 279.0 306.2 323.7 343.2 873.9 962.1 1,025.4 1,060.5 297.8 341.1 367.1 384.8 352.3 374.2 394.2 409.5 90.7 97.7 107.4 104.6 109.7 128.3 136.8 138.5 23.5 20.9 19.9 25.1 Calendar year: 1983 1984 1985 1986 r 659.9 726.5 786.8 826.8 294.5 309.3 345.6 361.9 835.9 896.5 984.9 1,030.3 283.5 311.3 354.1 366.2 348.6 355.0 380.3 397.7 835.7 293.2 347.4 844.7 276.1 329.1 333.7 340.9 360.9 380.9 355.7 367.6 369.3 372.1 352.5 86.2 93.6 99.0 105.6 84.5 86.0 96.9 95.7 98.3 100.2 101.6 103.5 106.9 108.0 104.1 94.3 115.6 130.5 135.9 87.2 101.0 124.9 127.6 130.9 129.8 133.9 135.0 138.1 134.7 135.9 22.9 21.3 20.7 24.9 303.0 51.6 55.7 56.1 52.3 47.6 53.6 55.9 55.1 59.3 53.9 56.0 52.7 50.7 53.4 52.5 252.5 285.5 311.5 328.9 633.1 675.5 743.9 793.3 755.8 792.6 805.8 806.6 813.5 833.1 854.2 61.3 75.9 73.6 83.7 46.4 70.2 1982198319841985- IV IV IV I n m IV 1986- I n mr rv 1 291.9 325.5 360.7 316.6 349.6 355.6 350.3 355.5 365.8 376.1 69.9 70.5 69.9 76.8 77.2 77.8 80.1 84.3 92.7 236.1 259.8 292.6 306.9 310.0 312.2 317.0 325.8 327.2 329.6 332.9 934.0 955.4 970.6 990.1 1,023.4 1,001.5 1,045.7 1,030.5 1,043.4 Estimates from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1988, January 1987. 34 362.1 374.2 377.2 384.1 385.9 389.3 396.7 403.0 401.8 23.4 29.1 21.5 24.4 22.3 15.1 21.1 18.0 36.5 15.4 29.5 Less: Wage accruals less disbursements 0.1 -.1 .0 2.0 .2^ -.2 .0 .0 Surplus or deficit (-), national income and product accounts -161.3 -187.5 -210.7 -185.9 -176.0 -170.0 -198.0 -203.4 -202.6 .0 .6 -169.2 .1 -1.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 -162.2 -214.8 -197.5 -217.6 -190.1 -195.0 -232.2 -197.4 -189.2 Sources: Department of Commerce {Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Office of Management and Budget. INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Industrial production (1977 — 100; seasonally adjusted) Period United States 1980 108.6 111.0 103.1 109.2 121.4 123.8 1250 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 " 1986- Feb Mar 125.3 123.6 124.7 124.2 124.2 124.9 125.1 124.9 125.3 126.0 r !266 May July Sept Oct Nov Dec r 1987- Jan * Feb " 1 Canada Japan Prance 108.1 108.6 98.9 104.1 112.7 118.2 118.9 120.1 120.6 124.7 138.4 144.8 144.4 120.3 145.2 117.1 144.5 120.2 144.6 117.7 145.1 116.6 145.3 118.1 144.9 116.3 141.3 116.2 146.3 117.5 143.5 116.5 r!41.1 ' 145.8 Germany Italy 106 103 101 102 105 106 107 107 105 102 103 106 112 114 114.7 112.1 109.6 103.9 107.1 108.4 111.4 107 104 110 103 108 109 109 109 109 109 107 113 113 117 112 116 117 116 114 116 r l!4 r l!2 r l!1.5 114.9 ' 116.6 r 109.0 T 114.2 r l!1.0 T 106.1 r !11.2 ' 110.8 r 112.5 110.3 r Consumer prices (1967=100) United Kingdom United States ' Japan France Germany Italy United Kingdom 96 98 101 103 108 246.8 272.4 289.1 298.4 311.1 322.2 328.4 243.5 273.9 303.5 321.0 335.0 348.3 362.8 282.3 296.2 304.1 309.7 316.6 323.0 324.9 294.2 332.7 373.1 407.9 439.5 465.1 477.6 175.8 186.9 196.8 203.3 208.2 212.7 212.2 398.0 472.4 549.4 631.8 698.8 764.7 805.2 423.6 473.9 514.7 538.3 565.1 599.4 619.9 110 !09 111 r !09 108 110 111 r l!0 110 110 109 327.5 326.0 325.3 326.3 327.9 328.0 328.6 330.2 330.5 330.8 331.1 357.7 358.5 359.1 360.7 361.3 363.9 365.1 365.1 366.9 368.9 369.5 324.4 323.5 324.7 326.9 325.2 324.4 323.8 325.4 325.7 324.1 323.5 471.7 472.9 474.7 475.6 477.0 477.5 478.0 479.9 480.9 481.4 481.9 213.3 212.8 212.6 212.6 212.9 211.9 211.4 211.7 211.0 210.8 211.2 801.2 804.4 806.8 809.9 813.1 813.1 814.7 817.1 822.0 825.3 827.8 612.2 613.0 619.0 620.1 619.8 618.0 619.9 623.0 623.9 629.2 631.3 333.1 334.4 370.3 371.9 322.2 486.2 212.1 832.8 633.7 636.2 100 r !268 1273 Data relate to all urban consumers. Canada Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and International Trade Administration). U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars; monthly data for statistical month, not seasonally adjusted*] Merchandise exports 1 Period Total domestic and Merchandise trade balance Merchandise imports General imports 3 Domestic exports Food, beverages, and tobacco Crude materials and fuels Manufactured goods Exports (f.a.s.) less imports (customs value) Food, beverages, and tobacco Crude materials and fuels Manufactur d goods Total (c.i.f. value) 14,227 15,743 17,735 18,551 53,554 51,901 71,390 93,973 76,554 100,317 112,226 125,122 160,411 186,045 222,228 256,984 273,352 -27,305 31 759 254,885 269,878 -57,562 341,177 107 861 361,626 -132,129 387,082 152 657 Exports (f.a.8.) less imports (f.a.s.) Exports (l.».a.) less imports (c.i.f.) 29 158 -39,179 — 42,364 -40,368 -36,354 foreign exports Total2 1978 1979 1980 121,232 143,681 181,860 220,630 119,024 141,142 178,633 216,515 15,963 20,604 24,587 30,407 18,579 20,957 28,222 33,719 80,151 94,473 116,587 143,891 150,390 174,757 209,458 244,871 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986* 233,677 212,193 200,486 217,865 213,146 217,304 228,899 207,076 195,917 212,034 206,925 206,376 33,206 26,977 26,979 27,312 22,226 20,223 33,022 33,518 29,555 31,482 28,344 26,453 154,283 139,716 132,409 143,142 145,384 148,715 260,982 243,952 258,048 325,726 345,276 369,961 18,350 17,817 18,819 21,626 22,376 24,669 92,873 74,404 68,037 72,758 64,981 48,257 142,475 144,022 163,449 221,515 246,778 282,121 Sept* Oct* Nov* Dec* 17,006 17,735 18,913 17,965 17,431 19,070 17,707 17,604 17,518 19,330 18,595 18,431 16,501 17,164 18,349 17,376 16,691 16,427 15,911 16,831 16,860 18,594 17,895 17,777 1,797 1,689 1,706 1,475 1,395 1,438 1,648 1,814 1,672 1,866 1,863 1,861 2,467 2,367 2,349 2,436 2,228 1,776 1,764 2,035 1,988 2,287 2,339 2,419 11,395 12,183 13,328 12,616 12,276 12,300 11,625 12,045 12,255 13,369 12,757 12,565 32,005 28,895 31,972 28,762 30,272 31,764 34,121 29,476 28,695 30,018 36,187 27,795 2,215 1,908 2,100 2,018 2,329 1,886 2,143 1,931 1,963 1,935 2,328 1,912 6,234 4,741 4,284 3,176 3,659 4,163 3,963 3,413 3,874 3,514 3,866 3,371 22,477 21,289 24,261 22,226 23,001 23,971 26,609 23,106 21,849 23,537 28,350 21,446 33,465 30,225 33,435 30,036 31,638 33,240 35,745 30,925 30,078 31,389 37,816 29,089 - 14,999 11 161 - 13,059 -10,797 -12,842 -12,694 - 16,414 -11,871 — 11,177 -10,688 - 17,592 -9,364 -16,459 12491 -14^522 -12,071 -14,208 -14,170 -18,037 13321 -12,560 12059 -19,221 - 10,658 1987- Jan* 16,384 15,826 1,613 2,236 11,115 29,805 1,948 3,840 23,003 31,164 — 13,421 14 780 Total2 F.a.s. value 1977 -31,076 27 599 -24,241 Customs value 1986- Jan* Feb* Mar* May* July* t -39,675 42691 -69,392 -123,312 — 148,480 -169,777 1 Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded through 1984 and included beginning 1985. *3 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. NOTE.—Imports on c.i.f. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods. Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Islands exports are reflected only in the figures for domestic and foreign exports combined and trade 'Beginning with data released in March 1986, the Bureau of the Census no longer publishes these data on a seasonally adjusted basis. For further information and for details regarding revised statistical month and monthly carryover data, see Bureau of the Census release FT 900. f Foreign exports (not shown separately) include $2,050 million of nonmonetary gold bullion for June and $1,250 million for July. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the fourth quarter of 1986 the current account deficit rose to $36.8 billion, from $35.3 billion in the third quarter. The merchandise trade deficit increased to $38.4 billion, from $37.1 billion in the third quarter. BILL ONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 10 10 5 x-1 0 -5 -10 -15 ._X\ _/Y\ ^^ s f/^ / \ BALANCE ON CURRENT ACCOUNT t \ AND SERVICES Viu\ J^f^q 1 \ / 1 •s/ ' 5 BALANCE ON GOODS \ **' /'" CHANDISE TR/ BALANCE -20 0 \ -5 -10 \ \\ -15 \ \ *"* f\ \ X -25 A - 5>^ -30 ''f\\ -30 X \ -40 1 1 1 1 1978 1 1 1 1980 1 1979 1 1 1 1 1 1 1982 1981 1 1 1 111 1983 1984 1 1 ^~- "• -. 1 1 ?• 1 40 1986 1985 - SEASONALLY ADJUS TED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits ( + ), debits (—)] Merchandise 12 Investment income 3 Net Period Exports 184 473 224 269 237 085 211 198 201 820 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 " 1984: I n m TV 1985- I n HI TV 1986: I 'r n. m r.... TV P.... Imports 212 009 249 749 Net balance 27 536 25 480 27 978 Receipts Payments Net military transactions Net travel and transportation receipts Other services, net 3 Balance on goods and services l 2 935 997 144 6 214 7 793 8 699 8 829 9 711 5 138 9 466 13 764 Remittances, pensions, and other unilateral transfers ' 6 128 Balance on current account 219 900 214424 221 753 265 063 247 642 268 900 332 422 338 863 369 461 36 444 67 080 112 522 124 439 147 708 86 411 83 549 77 251 86 221 89 991 90 613 52 329 54 883 52 410 67 469 64 803 67 748 31 172 30 386 34 082 28 666 24 841 18 752 25 188 22 865 53,614 54,590 55,691 56,005 -79,415 -83,684 -84,144 -85,179 -25,801 -29,094 -28,453 -29,174 22,860 21,104 21,396 20,861 - 15,446 -17,208 -17,991 -16,823 7,414 3,896 3,405 4,038 -281 -615 -234 -696 -1,834 -2,052 -2,332 -2,375 2,630 2,471 2,448 2,333 -17,872 -25,394 -25,166 -25,874 -2,368 -2,439 -3,107 -4,243 -20,240 -27,833 -28,273 -30,117 55 324 53,875 52,498 52,727 80 369 -84,242 -84,173 -90,079 25045 -30,367 -31,675 -37,352 18 726 22,253 24,502 24,509 16 507 -16,804 - 16,240 -15,254 2 219 5,449 8,262 9,255 246 -729 -619 -1,322 2 202 -2,864 -3,031 -3,031 2 442 2,552 2,609 2,999 22 832 -25,959 -24,454 -29,451 — 3 280 -3,458 -4,001 — 4,244 — 26 112 -29,417 -28,455 -33,695 53,588 55,075 55,764 57,326 -90,077 -90,775 -92,913 -95,696 -36,489 -35,700 -37,149 -38,370 24,199 22,639 22,342 21,432 -17,699 — 17,311 -16,196 -16,542 6,500 5,328 6,146 4,890 -1,066 -695 -570 -71 -2,688 -2,386 -2,594 -2,451 2,694 3,103 3,031 3,110 -31,049 -30,350 -31,136 -32,892 -2,991 -4,047 -4,163 -3,945 -34,040 -34,397 -35,299 -36,837 1 64 132 72 506 32 960 42 120 Excludes military grants. Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and Included in other services, net. 2 3 36 1 778 2 237 1 183 274 369 1 827 2 917 2 402 992 4 227 8 593 11 128 10 119 9 881 10 603 11 940 991 1 873 37 123 94 308 102 694 125 424 7 593 7 425 8 917 9 481 12 157 14 983 15 145 6339 9 131 46 604 106 466 117 677 140 569 214 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $29.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 1986 compared with a rise of $19.3 billion in the third quarter. Liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, increased $35.3 billion in the fourth quarter compared to an increase of $30.1 billion in the third quarter. BILL ONS OF DOLLARS* 80 BILLIONS OF DOLLA RS* 80 A CHANRF IN 60 / FOREIGN ASSETS IN THE U.S..NET - 1 A \ / 20 \ / \ / 0 • i\ ; \ / \ / \ / \ i i ' s s ' v \ / V'' ^*" " CHANGE IN U.S. ASSETS ABROAD, NET -40 i I 1 1979 1 1 1 1980 ! ! 40 •v ' ,/• \i i;\ / 20 w * V'' s\ 1978 > / V -60 ^ / \ A ^ r \^\ \l ^\ -20 f \ ' ' /1 /i / i ; \ * \ " /' / \ A j K r Vv "\ V 0 A -20- V AN/ \ -40 1 i i i i i i 1983 1984 1982 1981 60 / \ t \ 40 \ SEASONALLY ADJUST ED SOURCE, OEPARTMEN r OF COMMERCE i i i 1985 I I I -60 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Foreign assets in the U.S., net2 [increase/capital inflow ( + )] U.S. assets abroad, net [increase /capit Period Total 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 " 1984: I n m IV 1985: I n m IV 1986: I r T nr m ... IV... U.S. official reserve assets l * Other U.S. Government assets U.S. private assets Total Foreign official assets Other foreign assets Statistical discrepancy Allocations of special drawing rights (SDKs) Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy U.S. official reserve assets, net ' (unadjusted, end of period) 18,956 26,756 30,074 33,958 33,747 34,934 43,186 25,431 24,982 20,276 36,325 11,130 27,338 23,006 27,091 -64,331 -86,118 -111,031 -121,273 -50,022 -23,639 -32,436 -99,815 1 133 -8,155 5 175 -4,965 1 196 -3,131 3 858 312 59453 3 746 -72,802 -5,162 5 097 100 758 -6,131 -110,177 43 821 5 005 -5,523 -14,986 25754 2 824 -1,978 -98,149 38,752 58,112 83,322 94,078 85,496 102,767 127,106 213,294 -13,665 15,497 4,960 3,593 5,968 3,037 -1,324 33,394 52,416 42,615 78,362 90,486 79,527 99,730 128,430 179,900 -3,571 -20,171 16,443 -16,338 -657 566 -799 -1,110 -2,029 1 386 -1,388 717 -885 18 220 18,630 14 512 22,251 41,963 2,668 35,885 2947 -157 -765 6,906 25,198 42,120 3,433 28,979 1,560 6,040 9,162 10,570 940 -962 3 561 3,577 34,975 34,547 34,306 34,934 510 -2,793 -5,867 -23,266 -233 35(5 121 -3,148 -807 1 055 -422 -540 530 1 382 -5,324 19 579 14,247 25,358 35,665 51,837 11 066 8,486 2,577 -1,322 25,313 16,872 33,088 53,158 12,375 6,852 -1,343 5,125 1,094 -1,174 -3,687 3,771 35,493 36,088 38,295 43,186 13 009 -25,661 -28,201 -32,944 115 16 280 132 -250 -209 1 429 -91 -12,644 25 468 -27,052 -32,985 36,620 47,526 69,523 59,625 2,469 14,704 15,448 774 34,151 32,822 54,075 58,851 10,429 12,532 -6,023 10,156 1,329 -1,410 -3,956 4,040 44,919 46,595 48,087 1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the IMF. 2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. 1,139 1,152 1,093 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau Treasury. Economic Analysis) and Department of the 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets Consumer Installment Credit Bank Loans and Securities, and Reserves Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. 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