Full text of Economic Indicators : March 1984
The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
98th Congress, 2d Session Economic Indicators MARCH 1984 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1984 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) ROGER W. JEPSEN, Iowa, Chairman LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Vice Chairman SENATE WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) JAMES ABDNOR (South Dakota) STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho) MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia) ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York) LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas) WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland) HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana) PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland) AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California) DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin) JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) MARJORIE S. HOLT (Maryland) DAN LUNGREN (California) OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine) BRUCE R. BARTLETT, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS MARTIN FELDSTEIN, Chairman WILLIAM A. NISKANEN, Member WILLIAM POOLE, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—SlsT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $4.25 a single copy ($5.35 foreign), or by subscription at $25.00 per year ($31.25 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 11 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING (GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to very preliminary ("flash") estimates for the first quarter of 1984, gross national product is expected to increase $98.7 billion or 12.0 percent, both at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) is expected to rise 7.2 percent (annual rate) and the implicit price deflator, 4.4 percent (annual rate). BILLlOhsIS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 4,000 — BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO S»CALE) — 4,000 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 3,600 3,200 ^ E — — ^ \ — s^ 2,800 E r—^ 2,400 2,400 _ — / 2,000 2,000 p 1,600 3,600 3,200 ^' GNP -^ IN CURRENT DOLLARS ^-— 2,800 .i — ^1 GNP IN 1972 DO LLARS .*** 1 1 1 1,200 1 1 1 1977 1976 i 1 1 1978 1 1 1 - N 111 1979 1980 1,600 +•"*"""* 1 1 1 1981 I 1 1 \ 1982 I i 1 1983 I 1,200 1984 COUNCIL OF E CONOMIC ADVISERS iOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross national product 1,185.9 1,326.4 1,434.2 1,549.2 1,718.0 1,918.3 2,163.9 2,417.8 2,631.7 2,954.1 3,073.0 3,310.5 3,021.4 1982- I. 3,070.2 n 3,090.7 m IV . .. . 3,109.6 1983: I 3,171.5 3,272.0 n 3,362.2 mr 3,436.2 IV . 3,534.9 1984: I* 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976. 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981. 1982 1983 r * Very preliminary ("flash") estimate. Personal consumption expenditures 737.1 812.0 888.1 976.4 1,084.3 1,204.4 1,346.5 1,507.2 1,668.1 1,857.2 1,991.9 2,158.0 1,938.9 1,972.8 2,008.8 2,046.9 2,073.0 2,147.0 2,181.1 2,230.9 Gross private domestic investment 195.0 229.8 228.7 206.1 257.9 324.1 386.6 423.0 401.9 474.9 414.5 471.9 422.9 432.5 425.3 377.4 404.1 450.1 501.1 532.5 Exports and imports of goods and services Government purchases of goods and services Federal Net exports 0.7 14.2 13.4 26.8 13.8 -4.0 -1.1 13.2 23.9 26.3 17.4 90 29.9 33.3 .9 5.6 17.0 85 -18.3 -26.1 Exports Imports Total Total 77.5 109.6 146.2 154.9 170.9 182.7 218.7 281.4 338.8 368.8 347.6 335.4 358.4 364.5 346.0 321.6 326.9 327.1 341.1 346.5 76.7 95.4 132.8 128.1 157.1 186.7 219.8 268.1 314.8 342.5 330.2 344.4 328.5 331.2 345.0 316.1 309.9 335.6 359.4 372.6 253.1 270.4 304.1 339.9 362.1 393.8 431.9 474.4 537.8 595.7 649.2 689.5 629.8 631.6 655.7 679.7 677.4 683.4 698.3 699.0 101.7 102.0 111.0 122.7 129.2 143.4 153.6 168.3 197.0 229.2 258.7 274.8 249.7 244.1 261.7 279.2 273.5 273.7 278.1 274.1 National defense 73.1 72.8 77.0 83.0 86.0 92.8 100.3 111.8 131.2 154.0 179.4 200.3 168.1 175.2 183.6 190.8 194.4 199.4 201.2 206.3 Nondefense 28.5 29.1 33.9 39.7 43.2 50.6 53,3 56.5 65.9 75.2 79.3 74.5 81.7 68.9 78.1 88.5 79.1 74.3 76.9 67.8 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. State and local 151.4 168.5 193.1 217.2 232.9 250.4 278.3 306.0 340.8 366.5 390.5 414.7 380.0 387.5 394.0 400.5 404.0 409.7 420.2 424.9 Final sales 1,175.7 1,307.9 1,420.1 1,556.1 1,706.2 1,895.3 2,137.4 2,403.5 2,641.5 2,935.6 3,097.5 3,316.9 3,047.1 3,081.4 3,095.6 3,165.9 3,210.9 3,286.6 3,353.7 3,416.6 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS [Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 ... . 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 r 1982: I n m IV 1983: I n M IV r 1984: I* Gross national product Gross private domestic investment Personal consumpChange tion in Residenexpendi- Nonresidential tial fixed business tures invenfixed tories 1,185.9 1,254.3 1,246.3 1,231.6 1,298.2 1,369.7 1,438.6 1,479.4 1,475.0 1,513.8 1,485.4 1,535.3 737.1 767.9 762.8 779.4 823.1 864.3 903.2 927.6 931.8 956.8 970.2 1,011.4 121.0 138.1 135.7 119.3 125.6 140.3 158.3 169.9 165.8 174.4 166.1 168.4 63.8 62.3 48.2 42.2 51.2 60.7 62.4 59.1 47.1 44.7 37.8 52.7 1,485.8 1,489.3 1,485.7 1,480.7 961.4 968.8 971.0 979.6 173.6 167.1 163.3 160.5 36.3 37.8 36.5 40.6 1,490.1 1,525.1 1,553.4 1,572.5 986.7 1,010.6 1,016.0 1,032.2 159.9 163.0 170.1 180.7 45.5 52.6 56.8 55.8 Exports of goods and services Government purchases of goods and services Federal Net exports 10.2 17.2 11.6 -6.7 7.8 13.3 16.0 7.3 -4.4 8.5 -9.4 -2.1 Exports Total Imports Total National defense Nondefense State and local Final sales 0.7 15.5 27.8 32.2 25.4 22.0 24.0 37.2 50.3 43.0 28.9 11.8 77.5 97.3 108.5 103.5 110.1 112.9 126.7 146.2 159.1 159.7 147.3 138.7 76.7 81.8 80.7 71.4 84.7 90.9 102.7 109.0 108.8 116.7 118.4 126.9 253.1 253.3 260.3 265.2 265.2 269.2 274.6 278.3 284.3 286.5 291.8 293.1 101.7 95.9 96.6 97.4 96.8 100.4 100.3 102.1 106.4 110.4 116.6 117.8 73.1 68.3 66.9 66.4 64.9 65.4 65.7 67.4 70.0 73.6 78.8 84.3 28.5 27.6 29.7 31.0 31.8 35.0 34.7 34.8 36.4 36.8 37.8 33.6 151.4 157.4 163.6 167.8 168.4 168.8 174.3 176.2 177.9 176.1 175.2 175.3 1,175.7 1,237.1 1,234.7 1,238.4 1,290.4 1,356.4 1,422.6 1,472.2 1,479.4 1,505.3 1,494.8 1,537.4 -10.2 -3.4 -1.3 -22.7 35.2 33.4 24.0 23.0 151.8 154.5 146.4 136.5 116.6 121.1 122.4 113.5 289.4 285.8 292.2 299.7 114.5 110.3 116.9 124.4 75.5 77.8 80.4 81.4 39.1 32.5 36.5 43.0 174.9 175.4 175.3 175.2 1,495.9 1,492.7 1,487.0 1,503.4 -15.4 -5.4 3.8 8.7 20.5 12.3 11.4 2.8 137.3 136.2 140.7 140.6 116.8 123.9 129.2 137.8 292.9 292.1 295.2 292.3 118.4 117.6 118.9 116.4 82.7 84.2 84.2 85.8 35.7 33.4 34.7 30.5 174.5 174.5 176.3 175.9 1,505.5 1,530.5 1,549.7 1,563.7 1,600.1 'Very preliminary ("flash") estimate. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1972 = 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Gross private domestic investment Personal consumption expenditures Period Gross national product Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed Exports and imports of goods and services Government purchases of goods and services Federal Exports Imports Total National defense Nondefense State and local 1972 1973 1974 ... 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979. ... . 1980 1981 1982 1983 r 100.00 105.75 115.08 125.79 132.34 140.05 150.42 163.42 178.42 195.14 206.88 215.63 100.0 105.7 116.4 125.3 131.7 139.3 149.1 162.5 179.0 194.1 205.3 213.4 100.0 101.7 108.2 117.3 123.9 129.2 136.4 145.0 156.2 167.3 174.8 178.7 100.0 108.5 123.4 132.5 137.2 143.6 153.4 169.9 188.1 202.5 209.0 213.8 100.0 104.7 113.0 121.6 129.6 139.3 150.0 162.3 178.8 195.8 211.6 224.3 100.0 103.8 115.4 132.2 138.6 146.3 157.2 170.8 186.2 201.9 209.7 206.8 100.0 109.1 120.3 131.0 140.7 158.0 178.3 200.5 218.5 233.5 240.2 246.8 100.0 112.7 134.8 149.6 155.3 161.9 172.6 192.5 212.9 230.8 236.0 241.8 100.0 116.7 164.6 179.6 185.6 205.5 214.1 246.1 289.4 293.4 278.9 271.3 100.0 106.3 114.9 126.0 133.5 142.8 153.1 164.8 185.2 207.7 222.0 233.3 100.0 106.6 115.1 124.9 132.4 141.9 152.7 166.0 187.5 209.3 227.7 237.7 100.0 105.6 114.2 128.2 135.7 144.6 153.8 162.5 180.8 204.5 210.0 222.0 100.0 107.0 118.0 129.4 138.3 148.4 159.7 173.7 191.5 208.1 222.9 236.6 1982: I 203.36 206.15 208.03 210.00 201.7 203.6 206.9 209.0 172.9 174.2 176.1 176.1 206.8 207.6 210.2 211.2 206.3 209.4 213.4 217.2 208.1 211.1 209.6 209.9 240.8 240.9 240.9 238.4 236.1 236.0 236.3 235.6 281.8 273.6 281.8 278.5 218.0 221.3 223.8 224.4 222.7 225.1 228.3 234.3 209.1 212.3 213.9 205.7 217.3 220.9 224.7 228.5 212.83 214.55 216.44 218.53 210.1 212.5 214.7 216.1 177.3 177.5 179.1 180.7 210.6 213.4 215.5 215.7 219.8 223.1 225.7 228.6 207.7 206.3 206.3 207.0 244.9 243.9 249.0 248.7 238.0 240.2 242.5 246.4 265.4 270.7 278.1 270.3 230.9 232.7 233.8 235.6 234.9 236.7 238.8 240.3 221.7 222.6 221.7 222.2 231.6 234.8 238.3 241.5 n m IV 1983: I n m IVr 1984- I* 22091 * Veiy preliminary ("flash") estimate. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross national product Period Current dollars 10.1 11.8 8.1 8.0 10.9 11.7 12.8 11.7 8.8 12.2 4.0 7.7 -1.4 6.6 2.7 2.5 8.2 13.3 11.5 9.1 12.0 1972 1973... 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 . 1982 1983 r 1982- I Constant (1972) dollars ... n M IV 1983- I n TTT IV r 1984: I* 5.7 5.8 -.6 -1.2 5.4 5.5 5.0 2.8 g 2.6 19 3.4 -5.5 1.0 -1.0 13 2.6 9.7 7.6 5.0 7.2 Implicit price deflator Personal consumption expenditures Chain price index 4.2 5.8 8.8 9.3 5.2 5.8 7.4 8.6 9.2 9.4 6.0 4.2 4.3 5.6 3.7 3.8 5.5 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.4 Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) 4.0 6.0 9.4 9.1 5.8 6.3 7.8 9.5 9.8 9.5 6.4 4.3 5.3 4.7 5.9 4.7 3.4 4.3 4.7 4.2 5.1 4.1 6.0 9.1 9.2 5.7 6.1 7.6 8.9 8.9 9.4 6.5 4.4 5.6 5.2 5.9 5.0 3.6 4.3 4.5 4.4 Implicit price deflator Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars 9.6 10.2 9.4 9.9 11.0 11.1 11.8 11.9 10.7 11.3 7.3 8.3 7.5 7.2 7.5 7.8 5.2 15.1 6.5 9.4 Chain price index 3.7 5.7 10.1 7.6 5.1 5.8 7.0 9.0 10.2 8.4 5.8 3.9 5.0 4.0 6.5 4.1 2.2 4.6 4.2 2.8 5.8 4.2 7 2.2 5.6 5.0 4.5 2.7 .5 2.7 1.4 4.2 2.4 3.1 .9 3.6 2.9 10.0 2.2 6.5 Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) 3.6 6.1 10.4 7.7 5.3 6.0 7.3 9.3 10.7 9.0 5.9 4.2 5.2 3.9 6.4 5.1 2.3 4.7 4.2 4.3 3.5 6.1 10.4 7.8 5.3 6.2 7.4 9.7 11.1 9.2 5.7 4.1 4.8 3.5 6.7 5.1 1.6 4.9 4.4 4.2 NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter. "Very preliminary ("flash") estimates. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dollars) 1 Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars) Period Current dollars 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 r 1982: I n m IV 1983- I . n in TV P L 1 1972 dollars Total cost and profit 2 Capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment Indirect business taxes 3 Net interest Total Profits tax liability Profits after tax 4 Compensation per hour of all employees (dollars) 678.0 731.9 708.2 694.2 745.5 795.8 846.3 876.1 859.5 887.5 857.7 895.3 1.000 1.038 1.156 1.282 1.343 1.418 1.508 1.617 1.793 1.960 2.072 2.147 0.092 .093 .112 .137 .141 .145 .155 .171 .198 .217 .245 .244 0.113 .114 .127 .140 .141 .141 .144 .149 .172 .199 .209 .220 0.659 .692 .786 .837 .878 .928 .998 1.094 1.218 1.302 1.397 1.418 0.028 .031 .042 .044 .040 .040 .044 .050 .065 .074 .076 .066 0.107 .107 .090 .124 .144 .163 .168 .154 .140 .169 .145 .199 0.049 .055 .059 .059 .071 .075 .079 .079 .078 .074 .048 .063 0.058 .053 .030 .065 .073 .088 .089 .075 .062 .095 .097 .136 7.664 7.849 7.555 7.774 8.002 8.144 8.216 8.201 8.126 8.332 8.373 8.642 5.052 5.429 5.937 6.507 7.024 7.558 8.198 8.969 9.894 10.850 11.700 12.269 1,764.9 1,780.2 1,786.8 1,775.0 864.3 860.5 859.5 846.4 2.042 2.069 2.079 2.097 .236 .242 .247 .254 .204 .207 .209 .215 1.374 1.394 1.403 1.419 .080 .079 .072 .073 .148 .147 .148 .135 .053 .051 .049 .040 .095 .096 .099 .095 8.342 8.330 8.409 8.421 11.463 11.614 11.795 11.952 1,817.6 1,892.4 1,957.8 2,019.4 856.0 885.8 909.4 929.9 2.123 2.136 2.153 2.172 .252 .245 .241 .238 .218 .223 .221 .219 1.428 1.416 1.412 1.416 .070 .066 .065 .065 .156 .187 .214 .234 .049 .062 .070 .069 .108 .125 .144 .165 8.492 8.627 8.716 12.126 12.213 12.304 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1972 dol- This is equal to the deflator for poss domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. Compensation of employees Output per hour of all employees (1972 dollars) 678.0 759.4 818.9 890.0 1,001.3 1,128.4 1,276.2 1,416.8 1,540.7 1,739.9 1,776.7 1,921.8 s. 2 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments 3 4 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of I^abor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] National income Period Compensation of employeesl Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Farm 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 .... 1982 1983 r 1982- I 2,419.7 2,448.9 2,458.9 2,474.0 n TTT IV 1983: I 2,528.5 2,612.8 2,686.9 2,772.3 n TTT IV r 1 Nonfarm Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total 96.6 108.3 94.9 110.5 138.1 167.3 192.4 194.8 175.4 192.3 164.8 229.1 162.0 166.8 168.5 161.9 181.8 218.2 248.4 268.1 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Inventory valuation adjustment Profits before tax Total 21.0 22.6 23.5 23.0 23.5 24.8 26.6 27.9 31.5 41.4 49.9 54.8 47.4 49.0 50.9 52.3 54.1 54.8 53.9 56.2 58.1 61.0 62.2 65.4 75.0 84.8 92.2 100.2 95.6 89.7 87.4 107.6 83.7 88.1 87.8 90.2 98.4 106.2 111.2 114.5 18.7 32.8 26.5 24.6 19.1 19.1 26.3 31.9 21.8 30.5 21.5 20.9 27.4 16.8 15.8 26.0 22.2 21.0 15.5 25.0 718.0 801.3 877.5 931.4 1,036.3 1,152.1 1,301.1 1,458.1 1,599.6 1,769.2 1,865.7 1,990.2 1,834.2 1,859.9 1,879.5 1,889.0 1,923.7 1,968.7 2,011.8 2,056.6 963.6 1,086.2 1,160.7 1,239.4 1,379.2 1,550.5 1,760.3 1,966.7 2,116.6 2,373.0 2,450.4 2,650.1 1972 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment 94.0 105.6 96.7 120.6 151.6 178.5 205.1 209.6 191.7 203.3 165.9 198.3 167.7 170.3 168.3 157.2 168.0 192.7 210.8 221.8 100.6 125.6 136.7 132.1 166.3 194.7 229.1 252.7 234.6 227.0 174.2 207.5 173.2 178.8 177.3 167.5 169.7 203.3 229.1 228.1 Capital consumption adjustment -6.6 -20.0 -40.0 -11.6 -14.7 -16.2 -24.0 -43.1 -42.9 -23.6 -8.4 -9.2 -5.5 -8.5 -9.0 -10.3 -1.7 -10.6 -18.3 -6.3 2.7 2.7 -1.8 -10.1 135 -11.3 -12.7 -14.8 -16.3 -11.0 -1.1 30.8 -5.6 -3.5 .1 4.7 13.9 25.6 37.6 46.2 Net interest 51.2 60.2 76.1 84.5 87.2 102.5 121.7 153.8 192.6 249.9 261.1 247.5 265.0 268.3 256.4 254.7 248.3 243.8 246.1 251.9 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Durable goods Total personal consumption expenditures Period 1972 .. .. 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 r ......... 1982- I n... m IV 1983- I. n TTT IV r 737.1 812.0 888.1 976.4 ,084.3 ,204.4 ,346.5 ,507.2 ,668.1 ,857.2 ,991.9 2,158.0 1,938.9 1,972.8 2,008.8 2,046.9 2,073.0 2,147.0 2,181.1 2,230.9 Total durable goods 111.1 123.3 121.5 132.2 156.8 178.2 200.2 213.4 214.7 236.1 244.5 279.4 239.4 242.9 243.4 252.1 258.5 277.7 282.8 298.6 Motor vehicles and parts Furniture and household equipment 52.4 57.1 50.4 55.8 72.6 84.8 95.7 96.6 90.7 101.6 109.9 133.4 106.4 107.6 109.4 116.1 118.4 133.9 135.6 145.6 41.7 47.1 50.6 53.5 59.1 65.7 72.8 81.8 86.3 93.3 93.5 102.2 91.7 93.9 93.5 94.9 97.3 100.8 102.9 107.7 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Retail sales of new passenger cars (millions of units) Nondurable goods Other 16.9 19.2 20.5 22.9 25.2 27.7 31.7 35.1 37.7 41.2 41.1 43.9 41.3 41.4 40.5 41.0 42.9 43.1 44.3 45.4 Total nondurable goods Food 300.6 333.4 373.4 407.3 441.7 478.8 528.2 600.0 668.8 733.9 761.0 804.1 154.9 172.1 193.7 213.6 230.6 249.8 275.9 311.6 345.1 375.9 396.9 422.1 749.7 754.7 766.6 773.0 388.1 394.7 400.4 404.5 777.1 799.6 814.8 825.0 411.7 419.6 426.4 430.6 Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil 55.4 61.4 64.8 69.6 75.3 82.6 92.4 99.1 104.6 115.3 119.0 125.6 118.4 119.0 119.2 119.6 120.0 126.4 125.1 130.7 25.4 28.6 36.6 40.4 44.0 48.1 51.2 66.6 84.8 94.6 91.5 90.8 94.0 89.6 91.3 91.1 87.3 90.3 93.1 92.7 Services Other 64.9 71.2 78.2 83.7 91.9 98.2 108.8 122.8 134.3 148.1 153.5 165.7 149.2 151.5 155.6 157.9 158.1 163.3 170.2 171.1 Domestics Imports 325.3 355.2 393.2 437.0 485.7 547.4 618.0 693.7 784.5 887.1 986.4 1,074.5 9.3 9.6 7.4 7.0 8.5 9.0 9.2 8.2 6.6 6.2 5.8 6.8 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.4 949.7 975.2 998.9 1,021.8 5.8 5.7 5.6 6.0 6.1 6.9 7.0 7.2 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.7 1,037.4 1,069.7 1,083.5 1,107.3 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income increased $20.9 billion (annual rate) in February, following a rise of $42.1 billion in January. Wages and salaries rose $8.8 billion in February compared to a rise of $22.1 billion in January. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 120 1984 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Total personal income Period 1974 1975 1976..... 1977 . . . 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 r 1983- Feb Mar Apr May June July Aue Sept Oct r Nov r Dec r 1984: Jan r Feb p ... Wage and salary disbursements 1 1,168.6 1,265.0 1,391.2 1,540.4 1,732.7 1,951.2 2,165.3 2,435.0 2,578.6 2,742.1 765.7 806.4 889.9 983.2 1,106.3 1,237.6 1,356.7 1,493.2 1,568.1 1,664.6 2,650.5 2,670.1 2,689.0 2,719.3 2,732.6 2,747.6 2,756.4 2,781.6 2,812.5 2,833.5 2,859.6 1,606.3 1,616.8 1,632.1 1,652.2 1,660.9 1,673.5 1,680.5 1,691.8 1,710.6 1,715.3 1,726.0 2,901.7 2,922.6 1,748.1 1,756.9 Proprietors' income 3 Other labor income l 2 55.8 64.5 75.9 89.4 102.5 114.9 128.0 143.5 156.6 173.4 164.2 166.0 168.1 170.1 172.2 174.3 176.3 178.4 180.6 182.6 184.9 186.9 189.0 Farm Nonfarm Eental income of persons 4 Personal dividend income Personal interest income 62.2 65.4 75.0 84.8 92.2 100.2 95.6 89.7 87.4 107.6 97.8 100.8 103.1 106.6 109.0 109.9 110.9 113.0 114.2 114.3 115.0 119.9 120.7 23.5 23.0 23.5 24.8 26.6 27.9 31.5 41.4 49.9 54.8 54.1 54.3 54.6 54.8 55.0 55.3 50.8 55.8 56.0 56.2 56.5 56.7 57.0 29.1 29.9 36.5 39.6 45.3 50.8 56.8 62.8 66.4 70.5 68.9 68.9 69.0 69.4 69.5 70.2 70.9 71.6 72.3 72.9 73.4 74.1 75.1 112.4 123.2 132.5 152.8 179.4 218.7 266.0 341.3 366.2 366.3 356.0 355.7 355.0 356.9 359.4 364.4 370.2 375.2 378.3 380.9 384.0 388.0 392.2 26.5 24.6 19.1 19.1 26.3 31.9 21.8 30.5 21.5 20.9 21.3 22.3 22.1 21.4 19.4 16.6 14.9 15.0 20.7 23.8 30.4 44.5 49J 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and,other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. * Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workers' injury compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Transfer payments 5 141.2 178.3 194.3 207.9 223.8 250.3 297.6 337.2 374.5 403.6 398.1 402.0 402.7 406.7 406.7 403.5 402.2 401.9 402.0 409.8 412.4 411.8 411.3 4 With capital consumption adjustment. 5 Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, 6 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance 47.9 50.4 55.5 61.1 69.8 81.1 88.7 104.6 112.0 119.5 116.2 116.8 117.6 118.8 119.5 120.1 120.3 121.1 122.2 122.4 122.9 128.3 128.8 Nonfarm personal income 6 1,131.8 1,229.1 1,359.3 1,506.5 1,689.7 1,899.3 2,119.5 2,377.0 2,527.6 2,691.5 2,599.7 2,618.4 2,637.5 2,668.5 2,683.8 2,701.4 2,711.8 2,736.7 2,761.8 2,779.7 2,799.2 2,827.1 2,843.0 direct relief, and veterans payments. Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable income rose again in the fourth quarter of 1983. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,600 2,400 2,200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 4,000 J 3,000 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Personal income Less: Personal tax and nontax payments COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Equals: Disposable personal income Less: Personal outlays * Equals: Personal saving Per capita disposable personal income Per capita personal consumption expenditures Current dollars Current dollars 1972 dollars Billions of dollars 951.4 1,065.2 1,168.6 1,265.0 1,391.2 1,540.4 1,732.7 1,951.2 2,165.3 2,435.0 2,578.6 2,742.1 1972 1973 1974 1975... 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 . 1982 1983 r I 3,000 1984 1976 141.0 150.7 170.2 168.9 196.8 226.4 258.7 301.0 336.5 387.4 402.1 406.5 810.3 914.5 998.3 1,096.1 1,194.4 1,314.0 1,474.0 1,650.2 1,828.9 2,047.6 2,176.5 2,335.6 1972 dollars Dollars 757.7 835.5 913.2 1,001.8 1,111.9 1,236.0 1,384.6 1,553.5 1,718.7 1,912.4 2,051.1 2,222.0 52.6 79.0 85.1 94.3 82.5 78.0 89.4 96.7 110.2 135.3 125.4 113.6 3.860 4,315 4,667 5,075 5,477 5,965 6,621 7,331 8,032 8,906 9,377 9,969 3,860 4,080 4,009 4,051 4,158 4,280 4,441 4,512 4,487 4,587 4,567 4,672 Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population (thou-2 sands) Percent 3,511 3,831 4,152 4,521 4,972 5,468 6,048 6,695 7,326 8,078 8,581 9,211 3,511 3,623 3,566 3,609 3,774 3,924 4,057 4,121 4,092 4,162 4,180 4,317 2.9 5.7 -1.7 1.0 2.6 2.9 3.8 1.6 -.6 2.2 -.4 2.3 6.5 8.6 8.5 8.6 6.9 5.9 6.1 5.9 6.0 6.6 5.8 4.9 209,924 211,939 213,898 215,981 218,086 220,289 222,629 225,106 227,694 229,916 232,118 234,297 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1982- I n ffl IV 1983- I n mr IV ..... 2,528.1 2,563.2 2,591.3 2,632.0 400.2 404.2 399.8 404.1 2,127.9 2,159.0 2,191.5 2,227.8 1,997.0 2,031.9 2,068.4 2,107.0 130.8 127.1 123.0 120.8 9,199 9,315 9,430 9,562 4,562 4,574 4,558 4,576 8,382 8,511 8,644 8,785 4,156 4,180 4,178 4,204 -4.3 1.1 -1.4 1.6 6.1 5.9 5.6 5.4 231,304 231,790 232,387 232,990 2,657.7 2,713.6 2,761.9 2,835.2 401.8 412.6 400.1 411.4 2,255.9 2,301.0 2,361.7 2,423.9 2,134.2 2,209.5 2,245.9 2,298.3 121.7 91.5 115.8 125.6 9,661 9,834 10,069 10,308 4,599 4,629 4,690 4,769 8,878 9,176 9,299 9,488 4,226 4,319 4,331 4,390 2.0 2.6 5.4 6.9 5.4 4.0 4.9 5.2 233,501 233,984 234,564 235,138 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, ^nd personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). 2 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the fourth quarter of 1983, according to revised estimates, gross farm income rose $12.1 billion (annual rate) and net farm income rose $10.2 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 200 160 160 120 -GROSS FARM INCOME 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 NET FARM INCOME, 20 20 i i 10 1977 1976 1 1 1978 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1979 1980 1 1 1981 1 10 1982 1983 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 1984 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from farming Gross farm income Period Cash marketing receipts Total l Total 1976 1977 .. 1978 1979 1980 1981 ... 1982 1983 r 1982- I n ffl IV 1983- I r r n Mr r IV 1 . Livestock and products Crops Value of inventory changes 2 Production expenses Current dollars 1967 dollars 3 102.9 108.7 127.2 150.4 150.1 167.1 162.2 156.2 95.4 96.2 112.9 131.8 140.5 142.3 144.6 142.6 46.3 47.6 59.2 68.6 67.8 69.2 70.2 70.9 49.0 48.6 53.7 63.2 72.7 73.1 74.4 71.7 -1.5 1.1 .8 4.9 -5.3 7.6 ~1.9 -9.6 82.7 88.9 99.5 118.1 128.6 137.0 140.1 135.6 20.1 19.8 27.7 32.3 21.5 30.1 22.1 20.6 11.8 10.9 14.2 14.8 8.7 11.0 7.6 6.9 168.4 158.5 155.9 165.8 147.6 142.0 142.3 146.3 70.7 71.0 70.2 68.9 76.9 71.0 72.1 77.4 2.0 1.7 -3.5 -4.2 141.0 141.5 140.3 137.6 27.4 17.0 15.6 28.2 9.7 5.9 5.3 9.6 155.2 152.3 152.6 164.7 144.5 141.7 145.0 139.3 71.5 70.8 70.1 71.2 73.0 70.9 74.9 68.1 -9.8 -11.1 -12.3 5.2 136.0 134.7 134.9 136.8 19.2 17.6 17.7 27.9 6.5 5.9 5.9 9.2 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. Net farm income 3 Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index (Department of Labor). Source: Department of Agriculture, except as noted. CORPORATE PROFITS In the fourth quarter of 1983, according to preliminary estimates, corporate profits before tax fell $1.0 billion (annual rate) from their third quarter level and after-tax profits fell $1.2 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320 320 280 240 40 1975 1976 1977 1978 1983 1979 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment l Profits after tax Domestic industries Nonfinancial Period Total 2 Total 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 r 1982- I 1983- I. n IV * 1 8 108.2 127.2 144.1 142.9 165.9 198.3 167.7 170.3 168.3 157.2 13.4 13.9 12.5 21.3 22.4 26.6 26.9 27.1 23.6 32.8 27.6 34.5 100.6 125.6 136.7 132.1 166.3 194.7 229.1 252.7 234.6 227.0 174.2 207.5 30.2 27.4 25.2 27.5 173.2 178.8 177.3 167.5 41.6 49.0 51.6 50.6 63.8 72.7 83.2 87.6 84.8 82.8 59.2 76.9 60.3 61.4 60.8 54.0 168.0 192.7 210.8 221.8 147.8 172.2 187.4 200.1 29.8 33.8 31.9 30.1 118.0 138.4 155.5 170.0 53.7 68.1 78.2 27.8 33.9 36.7 169.7 203.3 229.1 228.1 61.5 76.0 84.9 85.3 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. 8 24.4 27.0 29.9 30.8 37.4 40.8 47.0 52.7 58.6 64.7 68.7 73.3 40.7 45.5 39.0 52.6 69.2 78.3 86.9 85.6 72.9 86.7 59.0 72.1 60.9 61.4 65.5 48.3 191.7 TTT 58.9 76.6 85.1 81.5 102.5 122.0 145.9 165.1 149.8 144.1 115.1 130.6 112.9 117.4 116.5 113.5 Wholesale and retail trade 70.0 76.0 65.4 95.8 120.3 140.3 154.4 148.6 134.9 159.4 123.2 145.5 131.5 128.1 125.4 107.6 203.3 ... Manufacturing 15.3 15.9 15.0 11.8 17.1 23.1 31.0 30.3 26.9 20.3 20.9 31.4 15.5 20.4 22.2 25.5 209.6 TTT . IV Total3 Tax liability 85.3 92.0 80.4 107.6 137.4 163.4 185.4 179.0 161.9 179.7 144.1 176.9 147.0 148.5 147.6 133.1 94.0 105.6 96.7 120.6 151.6 178.5 205.1 n Financial Profits before tax a Total Dividends Undistributed profits Inventory valuation adjustment 67.7 67.8 68.8 70.4 34.5 49.6 '55.2 50.7 65.1 81.2 98.9 112.4 91.2 79.5 46.4 57.3 45.2 49.5 47.7 43.1 -6.6 -20.0 -40.0 -11.6 -14.7 -16.2 -24.0 -43.1 -42.9 236 -8.4 -9.2 -5.5 -8.5 -9.0 -10.3 71.4 72.0 73.7 75.9 36.7 55.2 70.4 67.0 17 -10.6 183 r -6.3 Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to revised estimates for the fourth quarter of 1983, business fixed investment rose $23.0 billion (annual rate) and residential investment outlays fell $2.7 billion from their third quarter level. There was a $19.6 billion increase in inventories following an increase of $8.5 billion in the third quarter. BILLIONS OF DOL LARS BULKDNS OF DOLLARS 600 600 SEASONA LLY ADJUSTED ANNUM RATES 500 500 OKWOO rKIYA 1JE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT ^ / ^***^******^-^-1 400 f — 300 —-" __. *•--"" \J•**^^-.«»^* 0 X 400 V NONRESIDE NTIAL FIXED INVES TMENT x| — ^ 300 — +'~~~~~ 200 200 RE SIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT »«•"•******"""' — x^~- 100 100 .-*-"" _ CHANGE IN BUSINESS »»~~~^ INVE NTORIES ^— %^^ p^——\- 0 -100 1 i 1 1 I 1 1977 1976 1 1 1 1978 1 1 I 1979 1 1 ^-^s 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1981 1982 1980 1 1 1 1 1 1 -100 1984 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross private domestic investment Period Kesidential fixed investment Nonresidential fixed investment Total Structures Producers' durable equipment Total Nonfarm structures Farm structures Change in business inventories Producers' durable equipment Total Nonfarm 195.0 229.8 228.7 206.1 257.9 324.1 386.6 423.0 401.9 474.9 414.5 471.9 121.0 143.3 156.6 157.7 174.1 205.2 248.9 290.2 308.8 352.2 348.3 348.4 44.1 51.0 55.9 55.4 58.8 64.4 78.7 98.3 110.9 133.4 141.9 131.1 76.9 92.3 100.7 102.3 115.3 140.8 170.2 191.9 197.9 218.8 206.4 217.2 63.8 68.0 57.9 55.3 72.0 95.8 111.2 118.6 102.9 104.3 90.8 130.0 61.5 65.6 54.8 52.4 68.8 92.0 107.0 114.0 98.1 99.8 86.0 124.9 0.7 .7 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.6 11.8 23.0 26.5 14.3 -9.8 18.5 245 -6.4 9.6 15.2 16.0 -10.5 13.9 21.9 25.4 8.6 45 10.9 23 1 -2.8 1982- I 422.9 432.5 425.3 377.4 361.3 352.7 342.3 337.0 144.7 144.2 140.0 138.6 216.5 208.5 202.2 198.4 87.3 91.0 87.9 96.8 83.2 86.1 83.4 91.2 .9 1.6 1.3 2.3 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 -25.7 11 2 -4.9 -56.4 -27.6 -8.8 -2.3 -53.7 1983- I 404.1 450.1 501.1 532.5 332.1 336.3 351.0 374.0 132.9 127.4 130.9 133.3 199.3 208.8 220.2 240.7 111.3 128.4 141.5 138.8 106.7 123.3 136.3 133.5 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 -39.4 , -14.5 8.5 19.6 -39.0 103 18.4 19.7 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978..... 1979 1980 1981 1982 . 1983 r. .. .. . n m rv n in r IV Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, 10.2 18.5 14.1 69 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT—NONFARM BUSINESS According to the Commerce Department January-February survey, nonfarm business spending for new plant and equipment for the year 1984 is expected to be 13.6 percent above the 1983 level; spending for 1983 was 4.4 percent below the 1982 level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 500 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 400 400 TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT 300 300 200 200 NONMANUFACTURING MANUFACTURING- TOO 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 1977 1976 1978 1979 1982 1981 1980 1984 1983 -U SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Plant and equipment Manufacturing Total Period Plant Equipment Total Nonmanufaeturing Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Mining Transportation Public utilities Trade and services 1 Communication and other 2 Starts of plant and equipment projects, manufacturing3 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 r 1984 4 171.45 198.08 231.24 270.46 295.63 321.49 316.43 302.50 343.57 71.12 80.19 92.63 105.75 117.57 133.35 134.58 128.99 100.33 117.89 138.60 164.68 178.06 188.14 181.86 173.51 59.95 69.22 79.72 98.68 115.81 126.79 119.68 111.53 129.72 28.47 34.04 40.43 51.07 58.91 61.84 56.44 51.78 62.78 31.47 35.18 39.29 47.61 56.90 64.95 63.23 59.75 66.93 111.50 128.87 151.52 171.77 179.81 194.70 196.75 190.97 213.86 7.44 9.24 10.21 11.38 13.51 16.86 15.45 11.83 14.34 8.89 9.40 10.68 12.35 12.09 12.05 11.95 11.20 12.00 22.37 26.79 29.95 33.96 35.44 38.40 41.95 42.00 44.79 49.30 56.54 68.66 79.26 81.79 86.33 86.95 87.94 100.25 23.51 26.90 32.02 34.83 36.99 41.06 40.46 38.02 42.47 59.39 77.73 88.41 113.50 123.58 135.61 104.35 114.51 1982- TTT IV..... 313.76 303.18 134.43 127.32 179.33 175.86 118.26 110.23 56.61 50.51 61.65 59.72 195.51 192.95 14.57 13.41 11.29 12.33 43.02 43.00 86.88 84.36 39.75 39.84 25.31 23.62 1983: I 293.03 293.46 304.70 318.83 125.40 125.60 130.59 134.38 167.62 167.86 174.12 184.45 109.86 108.79 111.12 116.36 50.74 48.48 53.06 54.85 59.12 60.31 58.06 61.50 183.17 184.67 193.59 202.47 12.03 10.91 11.93 12.43 11.04 10.88 11.00 11.86 41.61 41.48 42.22 42.69 82.38 85.85 91.06 92.44 36.11 35.54 37.38 43.05 23.35 27.71 29.98 33.47 124.70 126.26 133.95 59.21 59.01 66.46 65.49 67.25 67.50 207.96 209.14 219.17 13.57 13.87 14.96 11.08 11.98 12.47 43.72 44.67 45.38 98.56 97.93 102.26 41.03 40.68 44.09 1976 1977 .. n mr IV 1984: I 44 n 4 2nd half' . 1 332.66 335.40 353.12 Wholesale and retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and personal, business, and professional services. 2 "Other" consists of construction; social services and membership organizations; and forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services. 10 3 Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during given period. 4 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late January and February 1984, corrected for biases. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE Seasonally adjusted civilian employment rose 702,000 in February and unemployment fell 225,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 116 MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 116 UNEMPLOYMENT ii iimmm iiiiili 1984 *16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted] Period Noninstitutional population including resident Armed Forces Resident -i i t including Forces NSA Armed Forces 1,631 1^597 1,604 1,645 1,668 1,676 1,664 1,664 1,671 1,669 1,668 1,664 1,682 1,695 1,695 1,685 1,688 1,686 1,684 103,882 Civilian employment Employment including resident Armed Forces Civilian labor force Total Agricultural Total NSA 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1983: Feb Mar Apr May. June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1984: Jan Feb 163,541 166,460 169,349 171,775 173,939 175,891 175,169 175,320 175,465 175,622 175,793 175,970 176,122 176,297 176,474 176,636 176,809 177,219 177,363 106,940 108,670 110^204 111,550 3,387 3347 3,364 3,368 3,401 3,383 92,661 95*477 95^938 97,030 96^125 97,450 3,298 3^373 4,'o64 100,836 100,980 101,277 101,431 102,411 102,889 103,166 103,571 103,665 104,291 104,629 110,688 110,735 110,975 110,950 111,905 111,825 112,117 112,229 111,866 112,035 112,136 99,172 99,316 99,606 99,762 100,743 101,225 101,484 101,876 101,970 102,606 102,941 104,876 105,576 112.215 112,693 103,190 103,892 3,415 95,757 3,386 95,930 3,392 96,214 3,374 96,388 3,479 97,264 3,499 97,726 3,449 98,035 3,308 98,568 3,240 98,730 3,257 99,349 3,356 99,585 3,271 99,918 3,395 100,496 6,362 6,169 6,077 5,965 5,886 5,700 5,866 6,027 5,724 5,848 5,712 5,943 5,808 102,251 104^962 100,907 102,042 101,194 102,510 112,352 112,399 112,646 112,619 113,573 113,489 113,799 113,924 113,561 113,720 113,824 113,901 114,377 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find Mitime work, etc. 2 Labor force as percent of noninstitutional population (both including resident Armed Forces). Part-time for economic reasons * 96,048 98324 99,303 100,397 99,526 100,834 97,679 100,'421 106,559 108,544 110,315 111,872 113,226 Unemployment Nonagricultural 4,499 5,'852 5,997 Total 15 weeks and over 6,202 6437 7^637 8,273 10^678 10,717 4,210 11,516 11,419 11,369 11,188 11,162 10,600 10,633 10,353 9,896 9,429 9,195 4,613 4,587 4,396 4,510 4,486 4,398 4,078 3,889 3,655 3,527 3,369 9,026 8,801 3,201 2,984 1,414 1,241 1,'871 2,285 3^485 Labor force participation rate (percent) Total 2 Civilian 3 63.5 64.0 64.1 64.2 63.2 63.7 63.8 63.9 64.0 64.0 63.8 63.8 63.9 63.8 64.3 64.2 64.3 64.3 64.0 64.0 64.0 63.9 64.1 64.3 64.4 64.1 64.1 64.2 64.1 64.6 64.5 64.6 64.6 64.3 64.4 64.4 64.3 64.5 3 Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population. NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES The seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate, which includes resident Armed Forces in the labor force, fell t« 7.7 percent in February from 7.9 percent in January. The unemployment rate for all civilian workers fell to 7. percent in February from 8.0 percent in January. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 25 20 BLACK AND OTHER /*" 15 ALL CIVILIAN WORKERS V 10 10 WHITE 11 111 t i l l II 1980 1981 1983 1982 1984 1980 1981 1984 * UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) Period Unemployment rate, all workers 1 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1983: 1984: All All civilian workers Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over 6.0 6.1 5,8- 5.8 7.1 7.6 9.7 9.6 4.3 4.2 5.9 6.3 8.8 8.9 6.0 5.7 6.4 6.8 8.3 8.1 16.4 16.1 17.8 19.6 23.2 22.4 9.5 9.5 9.2 8.8 8.4 8.2 9.8 9.6 9.7 9.5 9.1 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.2 7.8 7.4 8.9 8.8 8.5 8.5 8.6 7.9 8.0 7.8 7.5 7.2 7.1 8.0 7.8 7.3 7.0 7.1 6.9 7.0 7.5 9.5 9.5 Feb... Mar... Apr ... May... June.. July.. Aug.,. Sept .. Oct.... Nov... Dee ... 10.2 10.2 10.1 Jan... Feb ... 7.9 7.7 9.9 9.8 9.3 9.3 9.1 8.7 8.3 8.1 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.0 Both sexes 16-19 years Black and other White Experienced wage and salary workers Total Black 5.2 5.1 6.3 6.7 8.6 8.4 11.9 11.3 13.1 14.2 17.3 17.8 12.8 12.3 14.3 15.6 18.9 19.5 22.7 23.6 23.4 23.0 23.6 22.7 22.8 21.8 21.6 20.2 20.1 9.2 9.1 8.9 8.8 8.6 8.2 8.2 8.0 7.7 7.3 7.1 18.2 18.6 18.7 18.5 18.6 17.9 17.9 17.3 16.7 16.1 16.3 19.8 20.1 20.7 20.3 20.3 19.6 19.8 18.9 18.3 17.7 17.8 10.1 10.0 19.4 19.3 6.9 6.7 15.6 14.9 16.7 16.2 1 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces. 8 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. 12 By selected groups By race By sex and age Married men, spouse present Women who maintain families Fulltime workers Parttime workers 5.6 5.3 6.9 7.3 9.6 9.5 9.0 2.8 2.8 4.2 4.3 6.5 6.5 10.4 11.7 12.2 9.9 9.8 9.4 9.1 9.1 8.8 8.5 8.1 7.9 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.7 6.2 6.3 6.1 5.7 5.5 5.2 13.2 13.3 13.0 12.7 12.5 11.8 11.8 12.0 11.4 10.5 10.9 10.4 10.2 10.2 10.0 7.6 7.4 5.0 4.9 10.7 11.0 7.8 7.5 5.6 5.5 6.9 7.3 9.3 9.2 8.5 8.3 9.2 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 9.7 9.4 9.3 9.1 8.7 8.2 8.0 Labor force time lost (percent) 2 8.8 8.8 9.4 6.5 6.3 7.9 8.5 10.5 10.4 11.0 10.9 10.1 10.6 10.5 10.9 11.8 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.0 11.9 11.7 11.5 11.5 11.1 10.7 10.7 10.5 10.0 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.4 9.2 9.3 9.2 8.9 SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In February, the percentages of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 1526 weeks rose, and the percentages out of work for 5-14 weeks and for 27 weeks and over fell. Both measures of average duration of unemployment—the mean and the median—declined in February. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION PERCENT DISTRIBUTION 70 70 DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT A-_ /% r 60 N JOB LOSERS — 50 - J 40 — 30 — 30 - Ri iENTRANTS v- % "*N ^ \/ 20 20 • ***** * NEW ENTR ANTS 10 — - .J^Wiu^ 10 -vIWJ ^^-%r^v^ -^^ *« »*%»«•/ JO1 LEAVERS iiniliuji IIIHlllHI 1980 1984 1981 Illllllllll j Illl ||| 111 1982 1983 Illlililill 1984 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Duration of unemployment Period Unemployment (thousands) Percent distribution Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks 1 Reason for unemployment: percent distribution l State programs Number of weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Median Job losers Job leavers Reentrants New entrants Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) 2 Special unemployment benefit claims (unadjusted) 3 Weekly average, thousands 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 6,137 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 48.1 43.1 41.7 36.4 33.3 31.7 32.3 30.7 31.0 27.4 11.5 13.8 13.6 16.0 15.4 8.7 10.7 14.0 16.6 23.9 10.8 11.9 13.7 15.6 20.0 5.4 6.5 6.9 8.7 10.1 42.9 51.7 51.6 58.7 58.4 14.3 11.7 11.2 7.9 7.7 29.4 25.2 25.4 22.3 22.5 13.3 11.4 11.9 11.1 11.3 2,434 3,350 3,047 4,061 3,396 388 488 460 583 438 2,592 3,837 3,410 r 4,594 3,775 1983: Feb Mar Apr May T J June July Au£ Sept Get Dec 11,516 11,419 11,369 11,188 11,162 10,600 10,633 10,353 9,896 9,429 9,195 32.4 31.3 32.3 32.2 32.8 32.8 34.1 35.9 35.5 35.1 36.5 27.5 28.8 28.2 27.2 26.7 26.4 27.7 26.7 27.6 27.6 27.1 16.7 16.5 15.2 16.0 14.4 16.7 15.0 13.3 13.9 14.1 13.9 23.3 24.1 24.3 24.7 26.1 24.2 23.3 24.1 23.1 23.1 22.5 19.1 19.2 19.2 20.2 21.4 21.3 19.9 20.2 20.1 20.2 19.6 9.8 10.4 10.8 11.9 10.8 10.1 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.4 9.0 60.3 60.2 59.8 60.2 58.4 58.6 57.7 57.1 56.5 55.0 54.1 7.3 7.8 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.5 8.3 8.7 9.1 9.2 22.0 21.6 22.0 21.4 21.8 22.7 23.3 22.7 23.4 23.7 24.2 10.4 10.4 11.0 11.1 12.6 11.6 11.4 11.9 11.4 12.1 12.4 3,952 3,885 3,826 3,615 3,389 3,190 3,025 2,893 2,797 2,734 2,636 498 491 488 460 424 408 410 386 389 388 389 5,437 5,134 4,642 3,947 3,481 3,275 2,917 2,580 2,478 2,620 2,915 953 691 1,117 1,445 1,086 849 737 655 522 901 731 1984: Jan Feb 9,026 8,801 36.0 38.1 28.4 28.1 13.0 13.3 22.6 20.5 20.5 18.8 9.2 8.3 53.6 54.1 9.0 8.8 24.4 24.6 13.1 12.5 2,615 2,528 368 349 3,374 584 489 Nov 1 Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding. 2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Eico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RE) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program. 3 Federal supplemental compensation program. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration), 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 386,000 in February. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 22 r— 90 ">__ T^ri r 20 ALL NONAGRICULTlJRAL ESI/ \BLISHMENT 5 80 _ - WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE ^ y-*1 - SERVICES 18 GOVERNMENT 16 70 -V— 14 _ 60 — SERV ICE-PRODUC ING INDUSTRIES - miilmn 22 20 50 18 40 - Hi I'll i mu - CONSTRUCTION GOCDDS-PRODUC ING INDUSTRIES 30 *""*»%,.»—»• 20 |)i!lillll!l imiliim 1980 1981 iimlimi IMIlllIIII I I M l i l l l M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 hi 1984 H 1982 1983 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers; * seasonally adjusted] Service-producing industries Goods-producing industries Period Total nonagrieultural employment Manufacturing Total 2 Construction Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Federal State and local 8,061 7,753 7,747 19,542 20,192 20,310 20,547 20,401 20,513 4,724 4,975 5,160 5,298 5,340 5,454 16,252 17,112 17,890 18,619 19,064 19,680 2,753 2,773 2,866 2,772 2,739 2,752 12,919 13,174 13,375 13,259 13,064 12,992 10,608 10,617 10,689 10,788 10,844 10,961 11,022 11,081 11,235 11,320 11,406 7,637 7,650 7,687 7,705 7,738 7,772 7,771 7,790 7,829 7,852 7,874 65,697 65,784 65,931 66,074 66,326 66,428 65,918 66,916 66,916 67,044 67,184 4,966 4,963 4,988 4,993 4,992 4,984 4,341 5,031 5,019 5,019 5,015 20,343 20,350 20,329 20,356 20,494 20,529 20,580 20,612 20,666 20,718 20,781 5,384 5,391 5,423 5,435 5,451 5,465 5,488 5,499 5,503 5,515 5,525 19,262 19,356 19,478 19,546 19,668 19,770 19,835 19,913 19,956 20,016 20,093 2,742 2,742 2,738 2,756 2,742 2,738 2,746 2,778 2,761 2,763 2,768 13,000 12,982 12,975 12,988 12,979 12,942 12,928 13,083 13,011 13,013 13,002 11,474 11,575 7,911 7,920 67,252 67,489 5,042 5,043 20,846 20,914 5,553 5,563 20,096 20,242 2,763 2,760 12,952 12,967 25,585 26,461 25,658 25,497 23,907 23,646 4,229 4,463 4,346 4,188 3,911 3,947 20,505 21,040 20,285 20,170 18,853 18,678 12,274 12,760 12,187 12,109 11,100 10,932 8,231 8,280 8,098 1983: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Get Nov Dec r 88,746 88,814 89,090 89,421 89,844 90,152 89,748 90,851 91,084 91,355 91,599 23,049 23,030 23,159 23,347 23,518 23,724 23,830 23,935 24,168 24,311 24,415 3,790 3,757 3,786 3,860 3,933 3,974 4,014 4,038 4,060 4,094 4,088 18,245 18,267 18,376 18,493 18,582 18,733 18,793 18,871 19,064 19,172 19,280 1984: Jan r Feb *..... 91,863 92,249 24,611 24,760 4,176 4,212 19,385 19,495 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in noBagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagrieultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial dis- Government Finance, insurance, and real estate 4,923 5,136 5,146 5,165 5,081 4,941 86,697 89,823 90,406 91,156 89,596 89,978 14 Wholesale and retail trade 61,113 63,363 64,748 65,659 65,689 66,332 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 r 1978 Total Transportation and public utilities putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. 5 Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average gross hourly earnings Average weekly hours Period 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1983- Feb Mar Apr May I -^ Manufacturing Total private nonagricultural * .. . June July Au£ Sept Oct Nov Dee r 1984: Jan r Feb" Total 36.1 36.1 36.0 35.8 35.7 35.3 35.2 34.8 35.0 34.5 34.8 34.9 35.1 35.1 35.0 35.0 35.2 35.3 35.2 35.3 35.5 35.4 Total private nonagricultural l Overtime Manufacturing $4.53 4.86 5.25 5.69 6.16 6.66 7.25 7.67 8.01 $4.83 39.2 39.5 40.1 40.0 40.1 40.2 40.3 40.8 40.6 40.6 40.5 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.3 3.0 2.4 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 7.91 7.91 7.95 7.97 8.00 8.03 7.98 8.08 8.13 8.13 8.16 41.0 41.0 3.5 3.6 8.22 8.23 8.76 8.75 8.78 8.79 8.82 8.85 8.84 8.87 8.94 9.00 9.01 9.05 9.10 39.5 40.1 40.3 40.4 40.2 39.7 39.8 38.9 40.1 5.22 5.68 6.17 6.70 7.27 7.99 8.50 8.84 Adjusted hourly earnings index —total private nonagrieultural 2 Index, 1977 — 100 Percent change 4from a year earlier 5 1977 dollars 3 Current dollars 86.7 92.9 100.0 108.2 116.8 127.3 138.9 148.3 155.1 153.4 153.4 154.0 154.6 154.8 155.2 155.0 155.9 156.8 156.9 157.6 158.2 158.2 Current dollars 1977 dollars 97.6 99.0 100.0 100.5 97.4 93.5 92.6 93.3 94.7 8.4 7.2 7.6 8.2 7.9 9.0 9.1 6.8 4.6 -0.7 1.4 1.0 .5 -3.1 -4.0 -1.0 .8 1.5 95.1 94.9 94.7 94.7 94.8 94.7 94.1 94.3 94.6 94.4 94.7 5.7 5.4 5.2 4.8 4.6 4.3 3.6 3.9 4.1 3.9 3.7 2.4 1.6 1.2 1.4 2.1 2.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.0 .4 94.7 94.6 3.6 3.2 — .1 -.6 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Percent change from a year earlier, total private nonagrieultural 5 Average gross weekly earnings Period Manufacturing Total private nonagrieultural * Current dollars 1977 dollars 3 Construction Wholesale and retail trade Current dollars 1977 dollars Current dollars $163.53 175.45 189.00 203.70 219.91 235.10 255.20 266.92 280.35 $184.16 186.85 189.00 189.31 183.41 172.74 170.13 167.87 171.15 $190.79 209.32 228.90 249.27 269.34 288.62 318.00 330.65 354.48 $266.08 283.73 295.65 318.69 342.99 367.78 399.26 426.45 441.86 $126.45 133.79 142.52 153.64 164.96 176.46 190.62 198.10 207.03 5.7 7.3 7.7 7.8 8.0 6.9 8.5 4.6 5.0 -3.1 1.5 1.2 .2 -3.1 5.8 -1.5 -1.3 2.0 Get Nov Dee r 272.90 275.27 277.46 279.75 280.80 281.05 279.30 284.42 286.99 286.18 288.05 169.29 170.34 170.64 171.42 171.85 171.48 169.58 172.06 173.09 172.19 173.21 343.39 345.63 352.08 351.60 353.68 355.77 356.25 361.90 362.96 365.40 364.91 439.20 438.00 443.54 441.19 440.82 440.89 440.08 448.50 435.08 435.17 439.02 200.65 202.88 203.83 205.76 207.68 207.67 207.34 207.97 211.54 210.88 214.16 -.2 .6 .7 1.2 2.4 2.5 1.3 3.2 3.7 2.8 2.5 1984- Jan T Feb" 291.81 291.34 174.63 174.14 371.05 373.10 457.69 454.15 213.16 212.18 3.1 4.3 4.7 4.6 4.9 4.8 3.7 6.0 6.4 5.7 5.8 5.6 6.8 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1983- Feb Mar Apr May June July AllfiT Sept 1 . . . .. Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing. Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index on a 1977=100 base. Revised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 1978. * Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places. 2 3 1.9 2.9 5 Based on unadjusted data. NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data in 1977 dollars beginning 1967 are as revised in February issue of Economic Indicators. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output per hour of all persons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Output 1 Business sector Compensation per hour 3 Hours of all persons 2 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real compensation per hour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit labor cost Implicit price deflator 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 67.6 69.7 71.7 75.3 84.5 66.0 69.0 71.3 75.3 82.4 66.3 69.3 71.3 74.0 81.6 1977 = 100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 86.2 89.2 92.4 94.7 92.5 86.8 89.7 93.0 95.3 92.9 78.4 80.7 86.1 91.7 89.9 78.0 80.3 85.8 91.7 89.8 91.0 90.5 93.2 96.8 97.3 89.8 89.5 92.3 96.2 96.7 58.2 62.0 66.1 71.3 78.0 58.7 62.5 66.7 71.7 78.5 90.8 92.8 95.7 97.3 95.9 91.5 93.5 96.6 97.8 96.4 67.5 69.5 71.5 75.3 84.4 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 94.5 97.6 100.0 100.6 99.4 94.7 97.8 100.0 100.6 99.1 88.2 93.8 100.0 105.5 107.8 87.8 93.7 100.0 105.7 108.0 93.3 96.0 100.0 104.9 108.5 92.7 95.8 100.0 105.0 109.0 85.5 92.9 100.0 108.6 118.7 86.0 93.0 100.0 108.6 118.4 96.3 98.9 100.0 100.9 99.1 96.8 99.0 100.0 100.9 98.9 90.5 95.1 100.0 108.0 119.5 90.8 95.1 100.0 108.0 119.5 90.4 94.7 100.0 107.5 117.2 90.0 94.6 100.0 107.1 116.5 1980 1981 1982 1983 98.9 101.3 101.2 103.8 98.4 100.3 100.2 103.4 106.5 109.8 106.7 111.0 106.5 109.3 106.3 110.9 107.6 108.4 105.4 106.9 108.2 109.0 106.0 107.3 131.2 143.9 155.1 163.1 130.7 143.5 154.7 154.2 96.5 95.9 97.4 99.2 96.1 95.6 97.1 99.4 132.7 142.1 153.3 157.1 132.8 143.0 154.4 158.1 128.1 140.1 147.7 153.3 128.1 140.4 148.6 154.2 101.1 100.7 101.1 101.9 100.0 99.9 100.4 100.8 107.2 106.9 106.6 106.0 106.5 106.7 106.5 105.4 106.0 106.2 105.4 104.0 106.5 106.8 106.0 104.6 151.6 153.9 156.5 158.7 151.3 153.5 156.1 158.3 97.1 97.3 97.2 98.1 96.9 97.0 97.0 97.9 149.9 152.9 154.7 155.6 151.3 153.6 155.4 157.1 145.5 147.5 148.5 149.4 146.4 148.3 149.1 150.5 102.5 103.9 104.2 104.8 101.7 103.5 104.0 104.3 107.1 110.4 112.4 113.9 106.7 110.2 112.5 114.2 104.5 106.2 107.9 108.7 104.9 106.5 108.2 109.5 160.7 162.1 163.6 166.3 161.0 162.7 164.2 166.0 99.4 99.2 99.0 99.6 99.5 99.5 99.4 99.4 156.9 156.0 156.9 158.7 158.3 157.2 157.8 159.2 151.5 152.5 153.8 155.3 152.4 153.4 154.7 156.1 . .. 1982- I n m IV 1983- I n ffl IV Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 0.8 3.6 3.5 2.6 -2.4 0.3 3.3 3.7 2.4 -2.5 -0.8 3.0 6.6 6.6 -2.0 -1.0 2.9 6.9 6.8 -2.0 -1.6 -.5 3.0 3.9 .4 -1.3 -.4 3.1 4.3 .5 7.3 6.6 6.5 8.0 9.4 7.0 6.6 6.7 7.6 9.4 1.3 2.2 3.1 1.6 -1.4 1.0 2.2 3.3 1.3 -1.4 6.4 2.9 2.9 5.3 12.1 6.6 3.1 2.8 5.0 12.2 4.5 4.4 3.4 5.5 9.5 4.8 4.5 3.0 3.8 10.2 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 2.2 3.3 2.4 .6 12 2.0 3.2 2.2 .6 -1.5 -2.0 6.4 6.6 5.5 2.3 -2.2 6.7 6.7 5.7 2.2 -4.1 3.0 4.1 4.9 3.5 -4.1 3.4 4.4 5.0 3.7 9.6 8.6 7.7 8.6 9.4 9.6 8.1 7.5 8.6 9.0 .5 2.6 1.2 .9 -1.7 .4 2.2 1.0 .9 -2.0 7.3 5.1 5.1 8.0 10.7 7.5 4.8 5.2 8.0 10.7 9.8 4.7 5.6 7.5 9.0 10.3 5.1 5.7 7.1 8.8 1980 1981 1982 1983 -.5 2.4 — .1 2.6 -.7 1.9 — .1 3.1 -1.3 3.1 -2.8 4.0 -1.4 2.7 -2.8 4.4 -.8 .7 -2.7 1.4 -.7 .7 -2.7 1.2 10.5 9.7 7.7 5.2 10.4 9.8 7.8 5.6 -2.6 -.6 1.5 1.9 -2.8 -.6 1.6 2.3 11.1 7.1 7.9 2.5 11.1 7.7 7.9 2.4 9.2 9.4 5.4 3.8 10.0 9.6 5.8 r 3.8 .1 4_ 2J 1.3 -6.3 -1.0 -1.1 -2.3 -6.2 .8 -.6 -4.1 -6.0 .6 -2.7 -5.4 -6.2 1.2 -2.9 -5.3 9.4 6.4 6.7 5.7 10.0 5.8 7.2 5.8 5.5 .9 -.4 4.1 6.0 .3 .0 4.1 9.8 8.1 5.0 2.3 9.9 6.2 4.7 4.4 B.4 5.5 2.7 2.6 3.7 5.4 2.2 3.7 4.9 13.7 8.9 6.0 2.1 6.5 6.5 3.1 1.2 6.2 6.4 5.1 5.4 3.5 3.6 7.0 6.8 4.3 3.8 4.4 5.0 -.8 -.6 2.4 6.5 .0 -.3 .0 3.3 -2.2 2.3 4.7 3.0 -2.6 1.5 3.5 5.5 2.8 3.3 4.1 5.3 2.7 3.3 3.7 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 .. 1982: I n m IV -.4 -1.6 1.7 3.3 1983: I... n m IV 2.0 5.9 1.2 2.2 - 3.7 7.1 2.3 .9 4.2 12.7 7.8 5.4 1 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars. 2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed. * Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers. 16 s Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production rose 1.2 percent in February, the same as in January. The index for February was 15.8 percent above its year earlier level. INDEX, 1967 = 100* (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967 = 100* (RATIO SCALE) 180 —TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 180 .UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION 160 160 UTILITIES 140 140 A MINING \ 120 120 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 100 180 .MANUFACTURING PRODUCTIC>N NONDURAB 160 140 N \y*'\ " V .-*-—s s V \ A imilnni iimlmii 1981 v "l S DURABLE 120 1980 / ^ Iliilllllll 1980 PERCENT* t+ 1983 1984 / 80 70 iiinliiin imilimi 1983 1982 90 ..MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE (/ 1982 1981 mnlmii 60 1980 1984 1981 1982 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 1983 1984 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Industry production indexes, 1967=100 Total industrial production Period Index, 1967 = 100 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 r 1983 1983: Feb Mar Apr May June July AllfiT Sept Oet Nov r Dee r. 1984* Janr Feb p 1 2 . . 129.3 117.8 130.5 138.2 146.1 152.5 147.0 151.0 138.6 147.6 138.1 140.0 142.6 144.4 146.4 149.7 151.8 153.8 155.0 155.3 156.1 158.0 159.9 Output as percent of capacity. Annual data are averages of the four monthly indexes. Manufacturing Manufacturing Percent change from year earlier 100.00 1967 proportion Capacity utilization rate, percent Mining Total 87.96 -0.4 -8.9 10.8 5.9 5.7 4.4 -3.6 2.7 82 6.5 -3.4 -1.2 1.7 3.7 5.6 7.9 9.7 12.0 14.2 15.1 15.5 15.0 15.8 129.4 116.3 130.3 138.4 146.8 153.6 146.7 150.4 137.6 148.3 138.2 140.4 143.1 145.1 147.4 150.6 152.8 155.1 156.2 156.4 156.9 159.2 161.5 Durable 51.98 125.7 109.3 122.3 130.0 139.7 146.4 136.7 140.5 124.7 134.5 123.9 126.3 129.1 131.0 133.2 136.8 138.8 141.6 142.8 143.6 144.8 147.7 150.3 Utilities Nondurable 35.97 134.6 126.4 141.8 150.5 156.9 164.0 161.2 164.8 156.2 168.1 159.0 160.7 163.3 165.4 167.8 170.6 172.9 174.6 175.6 174.8 174.4 175.9 177.7 6.36 115.3 112.8 114.2 118.2 124.0 125.5 132.7 142.2 126.1 116.6 115.6 112.6 111.6 112.8 112.6 115.0 116.1 117.1 118.3 121.1 123.7 124.4 123.7 5.69 143.7 146.0 151.7 156.5 161.4 166.0 168.3 169.1 168.7 172.1 162.0 165.8 169.3 169.7 169.8 176.0 179.3 179.3 176.5 176.3 179.9 177.1 175.8 Federal Reserve series 83.7 72.9 79.6 82.2 84.7 86.0 79.6 79.4 71.1 75.2 70.6 71.6 72.9 73.8 74.9 76.4 77.3 78.4 78.9 78.8 78.9 80.0 81.0 Commerce series 2 83.0 77.0 81.0 83.0 84.0 83.0 78.0 76.0 70.0 73.9 69.8 73.3 75.5 76.9 l Industrial materials (Federal Reserve series) 87.0 73.3 81.1 82.6 85.6 87.6 80.4 80.7 70.1 75.2 70.1 71.5 72.5 73.5 74.4 76.5 77.4 78.6 79.5 79.6 79.6 80.5 81.6 Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve ) rstem and Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Products Final products Equipment Consumer goods Period Total Total 1967 proportion 47.82 27.68 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 125.1 118.2 127.6 135.9 142.2 147.2 145.3 149.5 141.5 147.1 138.9 139.9 142.8 144.5 146.4 149.0 150.7 152.1 152.7 153.2 154.8 156.8 158.2 128.9 124.0 137.1 145.3 149.1 150.8 145.4 147.9 142.6 151.7 143.4 144.3 147.7 150.4 152.4 154.8 156.3 157.3 156.9 156.1 157.3 159.6 161.1 1980.... 1981.. Intermediate products ... . 1982 1983 r 1983- Feb Mar Apr Mav T ^ June July AufiT Sept Oct Nov r Dec r 1984* Jan r Febp.... Durable goods 7.89 135.3 121.4 141.9 154.0 159.2 155.8 136.7 140.5 129.2 147.5 134.4 136.3 140.5 145.5 149.2 152.9 154.2 157.5 156.7 155.9 158.4 163.7 164.9 Nondurable goods 19.79 126.3 125.1 135.2 141.9 145.1 148.8 148.9 150.9 148.0 153.4 147.0 147.5 150.5 152.3 153.6 155.6 157.1 157.2 157.1 156.1 156.9 158.0 159.6 Total 20.14 120.0 110.2 114.6 123.0 132.8 142.2 145.2 151.8 139.8 140.8 132.7 133.8 136.2 136.5 138.2 141.0 143.1 144.9 147.0 149.1 151.3 153.0 154.2 Business 12.63 142.4 128.2 135.4 147.8 160.3 171.3 173.2 181.1 157.9 153.2 142.7 143.7 146.9 147.7 150.2 153.3 156.6 158.7 161.3 164.1 166.6 168.1 169.2 Defense and space equipment 7.51 82.4 80.0 79.8 81.3 86.5 93.4 98.2 102.7 109.4 119.9 116.1 117,0 118.2 117.6 118.0 120.4 120.2 121.8 122.9 124.0 125.7 127.5 129.2 Total 12.89 135.3 123.1 137.2 145.1 154.1 160.5 151.9 154.4 143.3 156.6 145.3 147.8 150.8 152.2 154.5 158.1 162.2 165.4 166.5 165.5 165.3 167.1 169.7 Materials Construction supplies Business supplies 6.42 134.5 116.3 132.6 140.6 151.7 158.0 140.9 141.9 124.3 142.5 129.7 133.1 136.4 138.4 142.1 145.8 149.0 151.4 152.3 151.6 151.4 154.8 157.8 6.47 136.0 129.7 141.7 149.5 156.5 163.1 162.8 166.7 162.1 170.7 160.9 162.3 165.2 166.0 166.8 170.4 175.3 179.3 180.6 179.4 179.1 179.4 39.29 132.4 115.5 131.7 138.6 148.3 156.4 147.6 151.6 133.7 145.2 134.9 137.6 139.7 141.7 143.7 147.8 149.7 152.2 154.0 154.5 154.6 156.4 158.8 Supplementary group: Energy total 12.23 125.5 125.5 129.1 132.9 135.4 137.9 137.7 137.4 135.7 135.8 131.0 131.9 133.9 133.8 133.6 138.5 139.4 139.1 137.7 138.5 139.7 139.7 140.7 [1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Nondurable manufactures Durable manufactures Transportation equipment Primary metals Period Total 1967 pTOportion 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 r 1983: Feb Mar Apr May .. June July Aug Sept Oct Nov r Dec r 1984- Jan r Feb p . Iron and steel 6.57 123.1 96.4 109.7 111.1 119.9 121.3 102.3 107.9 75.3 85.4 77.9 81.2 83.1 84.9 84.8 85.5 87.5 90.6 95.3 92.2 90.2 4.21 119.8 95.8 104.8 103.8 113.2 113.2 92.4 99.8 61.7 71.5 64.3 66.9 68.5 69.5 69.7 71.8 75.1 78.2 84.3 79.2 74.1 94.6 98.0 82.9 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery 5.93 124.2 109.9 123.9 131.0 141.6 148.5 134.1 136.4 114.8 120.2 110.3 113.9 115.3 115.5 118.5 122.7 126.0 127.4 126.9 128.5 129.2 131.3 133.3 9.15 140.1 125.1 134.5 143.6 153.6 163.7 162.8 171.2 149.0 150.5 136.2 138.6 143.1 146.1 149.5 154.2 157.3 158.3 159.2 161.8 163.7 165.8 168.5 8.05 143.8 116.5 134.8 145.4 159.4 175.0 172.8 178.4 169.3 185.6 168.9 173.8 177.2 180.1 182.4 188.3 189.2 195.8 198.4 200.1 201.4 Total 206.8 211.0 9.27 108.7 97.4 111.1 122.2 132.5 135.4 116.9 116.1 104.9 117.8 109.6 110.1 111.4 113.8 116.6 119.7 121.1 124.7 125.5 127.3 130.6 133.7 135.6 Motor vehicles and parts 4.50 128.2 111.1 142.0 161.1 169.9 159.9 119.0 122.3 109.8 137.1 123.0 123.2 125.5 130.4 136.2 142.3 144.3 150.9 150.9 152.9 158.6 163.8 164.9 Lumber and products Apparel products 1.64 116.2 107.6 123.2 131.2 136.3 136.9 119.3 119.1 112.6 137.2 130.2 128.7 132.1 135.8 137.4 141.3 141.6 142.3 141.7 141.0 143.3 144.1 3.31 114.3 107.6 125.7 134.2 134.2 134.4 127.0 120.4 Printing and publishing Chemicals and products 4.72 118.2 113.3 122.5 127.6 131.5 136.9 139.6 144.2 144.1 152.7 144.0 145.9 145.7 145.2 147.4 152.0 157.8 161.7 162.7 162.0 163.3 164.9 166.5 7.74 159.4 147.2 170.9 185.7 197.4 211.8 207.1 215.6 196.1 215.1 202.3 205.7 208.5 211.0 214.7 218.3 220.3 224.1 228.4 225.6 222.2 224.0 Foods 8.75 124.0 123.4 133.0 138.8 142.7 147.5 149.6 152.1 151.1 156.4 153.0 152.0 153.7 155.6 157.7 159.9 159.3 158.2 157.6 157.1 157.7 NEW CONSTRUCTION [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Construction contracts 2 Private Period Total new construction expenditures Residential Total Commercial and industrial New housing units Total * Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1977 = 100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) Billions of dollars 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 151.1 173.8 205.6 230.4 230.7 239.4 232.0 265.1 112.0 135.7 159.7 181.6 175.7 186.1 181.0 214.8 60.5 81.0 93.4 99.0 87.3 86.6 74.8 112.9 247.9 243.0 241.9 247.4 254.8 264.3 274.2 282.0 285.4 271.7 275.4 277.8 195.0 194.3 194.9 199.5 206.0 214.7 222.8 228.5 232.6 223.0 225.3 228.4 281.8 232.5 89.7 93.6 96.1 102.0 107.5 113.5 122.3 127.1 129.1 121.7 119.1 119.3 122.6 47.3 65.7 75.8 78.6 63.1 62.7 51.9 85.2 31.5 32.2 36.7 42.7 44.7 48.2 51.5 52.5 39.1 38.2 45.9 48.8 55.0 53.3 51.1 50.3 79.0 100.0 114.0 122.0 107.0 110.0 r 112.0 138.0 53.3 51.0 49.7 46.8 46.3 49.0 48.1 50.5 50.1 46.7 50.4 51.9 55.0 52.0 49.8 49.0 50.7 52.2 52.2 52.4 50.9 53.4 54.6 55.8 57.2 52.9 48.7 47.0 47.9 48.7 49.6 51.4 53.5 52.8 48.7 50.1 49.4 127 119 131 129 148 151 137 r !54 143 139 145 134 803 693 632 652 734 785 741 783 830 856 884 803 54.9 49.3 150 150 931 751 Annual rates 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July AufiT Sept.... Oct .. Nov Dee 1984- Jan p Feb p. Annual rates 63.4 68.8 72.3 77.3 82.2 87.9 92.7 94.8 95.0 92.1 91.9 92.6 94.6 1 Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. 2 F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971 for floor space. 592 739 977 1,059 904 919 690 750 19.9 22.5 29.6 39.9 43.8 51.3 54.6 49.4 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New private homes New private housing units Period Units started, by type of structure Total 1 unit 1,537.5 1,987.1 2,020.3 1,745.1 1,292.2 1,084.2 1,062.2 1,703.0 1,162.4 1,450.9 1,433.3 1,194.1 852.2 705.4 662.6 1,067.6 1983: Feb r Mar r. Apr r May T June r July r Aug r Sept r Oet r Nov r Dee r 1,706 1,592 1,549 1,779 1,743 1,793 1,873 1,679 1,672 1,730 1,694 1984: Jan r Febp 1,976 2,197 1,066 1,016 1,030 1,150 1,124 1,048 1,124 1,038 1,017 1,074 1,021 1,307 1,360 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 r 2-4 units 85.9 121.7 125.0 122.0 109.5 91.1 80.0 113.5 5 or more units 289.2 414.4 462.0 429.0 330.5 287.7 319.6 522.0 Units authorized 1,296.2 1,690.0 1,800.5 1,551.8 1,190.6 985.5 1,000.5 1,593.7 Units completed Homes sold Homes for sale at end of period l 1,377.2 1,657.1 1,867.5 1,870.8 1,501.6 1,265.7 1,005.5 1,389.4 646 819 817 709 545 436 412 623 353 402 414 3 398 336 272 251 300 ,141 ,159 ,180 ,313 ,368 ,427 1,716 1,512 1,567 1,445 1,479 1,560 592 611 634 654 655 606 558 597 624 636 748 669 721 261 262 266 273 283 289 296 299 301 304 300 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 2 5.6 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.3 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 116 103 113 102 118 127 109 115 96 130 133 115 162 524 473 406 527 501 618 640 526 559 526 540 554 675 1 Seasonally adjusted. 2 Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable with earlier data. 8 New series beginning March 1979. NOTE.—Units authorized beginning 1978 relate to 16,000 permit-issuing places; data for 1973-77 are for 14,000 places. 1,479 1,467 1,536 1,635 1,761 1,782 1,652 1,506 1,630 1,642 1,549 1,817 1,946 5.7 5.5 5.8 5.5 303 301 Seasonally adjusted housing starts beginning 1981 are as revised in February issue of Economic Indicators. Seasonally adjusted housing completions and sales revised beginning 1981. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturing and trade sales rose 1.1 percent in January and inventories rose $2.4 billion. According to the advance data, retail sales fell 0.1 percent in February following an increase of 3.8 percent in January. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) ouu 550 500 450 ^^ BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) IOU ^-^^n"—-r-^ " 150 140 130 —-1 ^ I / 1 MANlJFACTURING AND TRAl)E INVENTOi mS 300 250 !L 1NVENTOFUES - ^^a**** 120 — ^* no ^ "- ~" t 400 350 DPTA 100 •^y '-">•%,* - ^ ^ 90 ^*»^*»^^*«»« ^ 80 MA|^UFACTURIh\o, AN[) TRADE SALES 70 __ _ •~*r *>* *'' — fDETAIL SALE* - — 60 50 200 lilllllilii iiinliliH 1980 1981 illilllllll illlllfllli llillllllll 1982 1983 1984 RATIO* 150 — - 100 I M I l l l i i l ! l!llll|l|l! 1980 iimhiiii Hinhiiii miflitm 1981 1983 1982 1984 1984 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Manufacturing and trade1 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Sales Inventories 8 Inventories 3 Sales 2 Period 2 Inventory-sales ratio 4 Betail Wholesale Sales 2 Inventories 3 Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Manufacturing and trade1 Retail Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 204,277 229,624 260,263 297,565 327,113 355,762 343,488 367,554 318,544 351,036 398,487 449,713 491,456 523,897 505,849 514,742 50,694 55,987 66,117 78,680 92,658 100,673 94,765 98,649 64,078 72,311 85,568 98,008 111,792 115,854 115,563 118,067 54,781 60,435 67,242 74,948 80,064 86,960 89,547 97,831 18,150 20,724 23,211 25,179 24,365 26,306 27,041 32,095 36,631 39,711 44,031 49,770 55,699 60,654 62,506 65,735 79,273 89,530 102,504 110,592 115,550 125,710 125,384 135,843 37,841 43,135 49,858 53,413 53,952 58,559 56,748 63,447 41,432 46,395 52,646 57,179 61,598 67,151 68,636 72,396 1.48 1.46 1.44 1.43 1.45 1.43 1.50 1.37 1.38 1.40 1.43 1.44 1.41 1.39 1.39 1.33 345,109 1983: Jan r . 342,639 Feb r r 348,221 Mar . 351,080 Apr r.... r 361,850 May r 371,135 June r 371,371 Julyr Aue . ... 375,160 r 380,298 Sept . 381,923 Oct r r 386,773 Nov r 396,006 Dec . 502,425 502,857 498,871 499,912 500,903 500,344 501,856 505,044 507,837 510,418 512,598 514,742 94,344 92,347 92,614 92,890 96,646 98,577 99,941 100,894 102,171 104,210 103,793 106,892 115,030 114,425 114,569 114,902 113,557 113,172 114,124 114,227 115,674 116,825 116,958 118,067 92,526 92,211 93,804 95,125 97,239 98,638 98,832 98,277 99,537 100,923 101,896 102,438 28,955 28,840 29,986 30,671 31,705 32,790 32,597 31,951 32,905 33,882 34,641 35,532 63,571 63,371 63,818 64,454 65,534 65,848 66,235 66,326 66,632 67,041 67,255 66,906 125,278 127,576 126,998 127,613 129,197 129,782 129,556 130,983 132,142 132,777 134,622 135,843 57,015 58,559 57,775 58,057 58,796 59,120 58,614 59,400 60,627 61,048 62,441 63,447 68,263 69,017 69,223 69,556 70,401 70,662 70,942 71,583 71,515 71,729 72,181 72,396 1.46 .47 .43 .42 .38 .35 .35 .35 .34 1.34 1.33 1.30 1.35 1.38 1.35 1.34 1.33 1.32 1.31 1.33 1.33 1.32 1.32 1.33 1984: Jan11 Febp 517,137 110,109 118,919 69,339 68,829 137,612 63,696 73,916 1.29 1.29 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 400,173 r 106,328 106,173 1 See page 21 for manufacturing. * Monthly average for year and total for month. 3 Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month. 20 r 36,989 37,344 r NOTE.—Data revised beginning 1978. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In February manufacturers1 shipments, inventories and orders rose. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 360 320 -INVENTORIES- BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 240 i 280 240 'TOTAL' 200 -7- 160 DURABLE GOODS 120 100 80 40 NONDURABLE GOODS 60 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 240 iimlimi INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO 40 1984 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturers' shipments 1 Manufacturers' inventories 2 Manufacturers' new orders l Durable goods Period Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Durable goods Total Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, nondefense Nondurable goods Manufacturers' unfilled orders 8 Manufacturers' inventory— shipments ratio4 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1983 98,802 113,202 126,905 143,936 154,391 168,129 171,074 x 50,689 59,267 67,848 76,060 77,550 83,872 85,222 48,113 53,935 59,057 67,876 76,841 84,257 85,852 175,193 189,195 210,415 241,113 264,114 282,333 260,832 112,581 121,575 137,834 160,554 174,547 186,222 171,470 62,612 67,620 72,581 80,559 89,567 96,111 89,362 99,543 115,061 131,616 147,466 156,142 167,924 173,855 51,398 61,111 72,409 79,513 79,341 83,725 87,871 12,799 15,291 19,458 23,231 23,259 24,059 22,859 48,145 53,950 59,207 67,953 76,801 84,199 85,984 182,499 205,675 262,671 305,453 325,908 323,346 334,263 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May T ^ June July Auu Sept Oct Nov Dec r 1984- Jan Feb p 158,239 158,081 161,803 163,065 167,965 173,920 172,598 175,989 178,590 176,790 181,084 186,676 77,744 77,769 79,595 80,241 82,669 86,582 85,646 87,918 88,970 88,228 92,246 96,152 80,495 80,312 82,208 82,824 85,296 87,338 86,952 88,071 89,620 88,562 88,838 90,524 262,117 260,856 257,304 257,397 258,149 257,390 258,176 259,834 260,021 260,816 261,018 260,832 172,506 171,572 169,377 169,814 170,734 169,840 169,693 170,576 170,385 170,628 170,964 171,470 89,611 89,284 87,927 87,583 87,415 87,550 88,483 89,258 89,636 90,188 90,054 89,362 162,871 157,757 162,587 166,025 169,874 178,489 175,455 178,302 180,961 181,802 185,473 188,506 82,355 77,449 79,951 83,101 84,456 90,905 88,234 89,978 90,996 93,366 96,513 98,157 20,507 19,175 20,032 22,592 22,228 24,289 21,580 23,028 25,213 26,003 24,575 24,852 80,516 80,308 82,636 82,924 85,418 87,584 87,221 88,324 89,965 88,436 88,960 90,349 305,599 305,268 306,053 309,015 310,922 315,488 318,348 320,664 323,032 328,041 332,431 334,263 95,147 95,996 88,589 88,889 260,606 263,804 170,742 172,894 89,864 90,910 189,600 190,938 25,286 26,865 88,729 89,109 340,126 346,182 1 8 3 183,736 184,885 r Monthly average for 3 ear and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales. Book value, end of pe riod. End of period. r 100,871 101,829 r 1.69 1.61 1.57 1.57 1.66 1.64 1.52 1.66 1.65 1.59 1.58 1.54 1.48 1.50 1.48 1.46 1.48 1.44 1.40 1.42 1.43 * For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. Source: Denartment of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In February, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.4 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished consumer foods rose 0.7 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods rose 0.2 percent. Prices of capital equipment rose 0.5 percent. INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 320 - FINISHED GOODS INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 320 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 300 300 •*•**"* "~" TOTAL FINISHED GUOD5 280 ^ Y|,£^C' 260 ** — *"* —-•- *~~ 280 *"** — J ^ S- 260 — CONSUMER FOODS 240 CAPITAL EQi JIPMENT J^^ f 240 $& 220 — 220 r^ K — s' ^ 200 r'**"?? 180 200 — ,'' CONSUMER GOODS tXCL UDING FOODS 180 *>""' ^^- — 160 160 140 Illllllllll llllllillll Illllllllll Illllllllll M l l l l l l l M Illllllllll Illllllllll M i l l M i l l 1977 1976 1980 1979 1978 1981 1982 1983 Illllllllll 140 1984 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE.- DEPARTMEN r OF LABOR [1967=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Finished goods Finished goods excluding consumer foods Period Total finished goods Consumer foods Total 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 P . 1983: Feb Mar Am" May... June July Auir Sent Oct r Nov Dec 1984: Jan Feb. 1 . Total Foods and feeds 1 Other Total Foodstuffs and feedstuffs Capital equipment consumer goods Other 170.6 181.7 195.9 217.7 247.0 269.8 280.7 285.2 180.4 189.9 207.2 226.2 239.5 253.6 259.3 261.8 166.1 177.7 190.7 213.3 247.8 273.3 285.8 290.9 162.6 174.3 186.7 211.5 250.8 276.5 287.8 291.3 144.5 152.8 166.9 183.2 206.2 218.6 226.7 233.1 174.8 189.3 200.0 231.3 283.9 319.6 338.6 335.3 173.4 184.6 199.2 216.5 239.8 264.3 279.4 287.3 169.7 180.7 194.9 217.9 248.9 271.3 281.0 284.6 189.1 201.5 215.6 242.2 280.3 306.0 310.4 312.3 185.3 190.5 203.1 226.1 252.6 250.3 239.4 247.8 189.4 202.3 216.5 244.4 282.3 310.1 315.7 317.2 202.7 209.2 234.4 274.3 304.6 329.0 319.5 323.6 190.2 192.1 216.2 247.9 259.2 257.4 247.8 252.3 228.5 245.0 272.3 330.0 401.0 482.3 473.9 477.3 283.8 283.4 283.3 284.1 285.2 285.2 286.3 286.6 287.1 286.9 287.3 261.1 261.1 263.1 262.0 260.5 259.3 260.2 262.1 264.8 263.8 265.6 289.2 288.7 287.9 289.3 291.3 291.8 292.8 292.6 292.3 292.4 292.4 289.9 288.9 287.7 289.5 292.1 292.5 293.5 293.4 292.8 292.7 292.4 232.0 232.6 232.7 233.1 233.8 234.1 234.7 234.4 233.0 233.7 233.8 333.7 331.3 329.0 332.0 336.0 336.7 337.9 337.9 338.1 337.3 336.6 285.0 285.8 285.9 286.5 287.0 287.5 288.8 288.5 288.6 289.3 290.0 283.4 282.7 282.6 283.5 284.7 284.6 285.5 286.1 286.6 286.2 286.6 309.9 309.1 307.9 309.1 311.3 312.2 313.4 315.3 316.2 316.8 317.1 240.0 240.0 244.8 243.3 242.5 242.1 249.4 261.4 258.4 258.6 257.6 315.1 314.2 312.6 314.0 316.4 317.4 318.2 319.5 320.6 321.2 321.6 318.5 320.2 323.2 321.6 321.1 317.9 325.0 328.8 329.2 330.6 333.8 249.8 250.8 255.3 250.9 247.1 242.0 251.9 256.2 258.2 259.8 263.8 466.7 469.7 469.8 474.0 480.5 481.3 482.6 485.2 482.3 483.2 484.9 289.1 290.2 272.7 274.5 292.3 293.1 292.0 292.6 234.0 235.3 335.7 335.9 290.4 291.9 288.7 289.7 317.3 317.4 261.1 256.2 321.5 322.0 336.2 331.1 269.6 261.3 480.2 481.6 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. 22 Durable Crude materials Total finished Nondurable Consumer goods Total Intermediate materials Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES In February, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.4 percent seasonally adjusted (0.5 percent not seasonally adjusted). The index was 4.6 percent above its level in February 1983. INDE X, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 320 INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO S(:ALE) 320 UNADJUSTED ^^ 300 ~-^^ 280 ""I 300 280 ^-1 /^ 260 260 /S 240 220 / 200 A 240 ALL ITEMS 220 200 ^ 180 y^ ^< 180 -^" 160 140 160 iimlimi 1111111111i 1976 1977 I l l l l l l l l l l 1 1 1 1! i 1 ! 1 II 1978 Mil ill MM miilimi 1980 1979 1981 lililllUJJ 1 I l l l l l l l l ! 140 1982 1983 SEE NOTE ON TABLE B ELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMEN r OF LABOR 1984 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967 = 100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Transportation Housing Shelter Period All items J Food Total1 RentTotal costs 2 NSA Rel imp.5 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980... 1981 1982 1983.... 198S: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1984: Jan Feb 100.0 18.7 1705 181 5 1954 217 4 2468 2724 289 1 298.4 293.2 293.4 295.5 297.1 298.1 299.3 300.3 301.8 302.6 303.1 303.5 305.2 306.6 1808 192 2 211 4 2345 2546 2746 2857 291.7 289.1 290.3 291.5 292.1 291.5 291.2 291.7 292.3 293.5 294.1 295.4 300.2 302.2 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 December 1982=100. 3 Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol 4 37.6 174 6 1865 202 8 227 6 263.3 293 5 3147 323.1 318.6 318.3 320.3 321.1 321.9 323.2 324.1 325.3 326.0 327.4 328.1 329.6 331.1 21.5 1790 191.1 2104 239.7 281.7 314 7 337.0 344.8 338.9 338.8 341.4 342.3 343.3 345.1 346.3 348.0 349.3 350.7 351.8 353.0 353.8 7.0 103.0 101.2 101.3 101.7 102.2 102.5 103.1 103.6 104.2 104.6 105.0 105.3 105.7 106.0 Homeowners' costs 2 Mainte- NSA NSA nance and repairs 14.0 0.5 102.5 100.9 100.9 101.7 102.0 102.2 102.7 103.0 103.5 103.9 104.3 104.5 104.9 105.1 199.6 214.7 2330 256.4 285.7 314.4 334.1 346.3 339.4 339.9 343.6 344.3 345.1 346.1 347.9 346.6 351.1 353.4 354.7 356.7 353.5 beginning September It81. Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc. also included through 1982. 6 Relative importance, December 1983. Fuel and other utilities Apparel and upkeep 8.2 182.7 202.2 216.0 239.3 278.6 319.2 350.8 370.3 366.6 364.8 366.6 368.4 369.3 370.7 371.9 372.9 372.2 374.4 373.8 378.2 384.8 5.2 147.6 154.2 159.6 166.6 178.4 186.9 191.8 196.5 194.2 194.2 194.7 195.7 196.3 197.3 197.9 198.2 198.2 198.5 198.5 199.0 198.5 Medical Total1 New cars Motor fuel 3 care Iner4 gy All items less food, energy, and shelter 21.8 165.5 177.2 185.5 212.0 249.7 280.0 291.5 298.4 290.6 289.7 293.7 296.4 297.3 298.7 300.8 302.8 304.4 305.5 306.1 306.7 306.6 3.5 135.7 142.9 153.8 166.0 179.3 190.2 197.6 202.6 200.6 201.4 201.4 201.1 201.3 201.7 203.3 204.9 205.5 205.3 205.7 205.6 206.4 5.9 177.9 188.2 196.3 265.6 369.1 410.9 389.4 376.4 360.9 353.5 368.7 379.8 381.0 382.5 383.7 383.7 383.2 381.6 379.8 375.9 370.5 6.1 184.7 202.4 219.4 239.7 265.9 294.5 328.7 357.3 349.7 351.5 353.1 354.8 356.5 358.5 360.3 361.7 362.9 364.7 366.0 368.6 371.5 11.9 47.9 189.3 207.3 220.4 275.9 361.1 410.0 416.1 419.3 409.3 403.6 413.3 420.5 421.6 423.2 424.6 425.1 424.2 424.5 423.3 421.7 422.7 159.9 169.5 179.1 191.5 208.3 228.1 245.6 258.4 254.1 254.8 255.7 256.3 257.1 258.4 259.7 260.9 262.2 263.5 264.2 265.8 266.7 NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers. Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeowner ship costs and therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Change from preceding period Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate Consumer goods Consumer goods Consumer goods Total finished goods Period Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Total finished goods Excluding foods Foods Capital equipment Total finished goods Excluding foods Foods Capital equipment Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Change, Dee. to Dee., NSA 1975 1976 1977 1978 6.6 3.7 6.9 9.2 12.8 11.8 7.1 3.7 .6 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983* 6.7 6.0 6.7 8.5 17.5 14.2 8.5 4.2 -.8 5.5 2.5 6.9 11.7 7.4 7.5 1.4 2.1 2.2 8.2 6.4 7.3 7.9 8.8 11.4 9.2 3.9 2.0 10.8 4.4 6.5 7.8 11.1 13.5 9.2 4.0 1.6 Change, month to month 1983- Feb Mar Apr May T J June 0.1 — .1 -.0 .3 .4 0 .4 .1 .2 •t .1 July Awr Septr Oct r Nov Dec 1984: Jan r Feb . .. ... .6 .4 . •: 0.8 0 .8 -.4 -.6 -.5 .3 .7 1.0 — .4 .7 -0.3 • g -.4 .6 .9 .1 .3 '0 -.2 0 -.1 0.3 .3 .0 .2 .2 .2 .5 1 .0 .2 .2 -1.7 -3.2 A 2.6 2.7 3.1 2.0 2.7 .8 1.0 2.8 2.3 6.5 1.4 -.9 -5.7 2.7 2.5 8.8 5.6 5.4 2.7 -7 -.1 .2 .1 .5 2.8 4.7 12.5 17.2 A 6.1 -8.0 4.3 -.6 4.5 6.8 5.6 1.8 .4 -1.1 1.4 3.1 2.1 2.6 2.1 1.7 2.3 3.2 2.1 1.5 .7 2.1 1.0 .6 i -.G -.3 1.1 1.8 2.3 2.7 2.0 1.5 1.5 2.1 3.7 2.1 .7 .2 -.7 .8 1.3 1.4 4.0 -0.2 -1.2 -3.1 -3.4 -2.0 1.1 2.5 3.1 3.6 2.2 .2 2.3 2.8 2.9 2.6 1.9 2.4 2.7 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.3 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.2 .7 .6 -1.1 2.5 3.6 2.8 2.7 10.6 11.3 -.3 -.6 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.3 j Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Housing Transportation Shelter Period All items l Food Total1 Total 1 Homeowners' costs Eenters' costs Fuel and other utilities Apparel and upkeep Total1 New cars Motor2 fuel Medical care Ener3 gy All items less food, energy, and shelter Addendum: All items, percent change (annual rate) From previous quarter 4 From 3 months earlier From 6 months earlier From year earlier NSA NSA Change, December to December, NSA 1975 1976 1977 1978. 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 2.3 4.5 4.2 3.2 5.5 6.8 3.6 1.6 2.9 65 .6 80 11.8 102 10.2 43 3.1 2.6 75 5.4 76 9.9 152 13.7 102 3.6 3.5 73 4.2 87 11.5 174 15.1 99 2.4 4.7 5.1 4.5 .1 .7 .4 .2 .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 .2 0.1 .4 .4 .2 -.2 — .1 .2 .2 .4 .2 .4 0.1 -.1 .6 .2 .2 .4 .3 .4 .2 .4 .2 0.2 -.0 .8 .3 .3 .5 .3 .5 .4 .4 .3 0.4 .1 .4 .5 .3 .6 .5 .6 ,4 .4 .3 0.2 0 .8 .3 .2 .5 .3 - .5 .4 .4 .2 -0.3 -.5 .5 .5 .2 .4 .3 .3 2 .6 2 0.4 0 .3 .5 .3 .5 .3 .2 0 .2 0 .6 .4 1.6 .7 .5 .5 .3 .2 .4 .3 .4 .2 1.2 1.7 .3 -.3 70 4.8 68 9.0 13 3 12.4 89 3.9 3.8 11.2 9.0 8.1 5.9 16.0 13.6 14.5 9.7 1.8 7.3 4.8 7.2 6.2 7.4 7.5 6.8 1.6 3.4 11.0 2.6 4.9 8.5 52.2 18.9 9.4 -6.5 -1.7 9.9 10.1 8.8 8.8 10.1 10.0 12.5 11.0 6.4 11.6 6.9 7.2 8.0 37.4 18.1 11.9 1.3 -.5 6.4 7.0 5.2 6.5 7.2 9.9 9.4 6.1 5.0 -1.0 -.3 1.4 .9 .3 .5 .7 .7 .5 .4 .2 0.6 .4 0 -.1 .1 .2 .8 .8 .3 -.1 .2 -4.4 -2.1 4.3 3.0 .3 .4 .3 0 _.l -.4 -.5 0.7 .5 .5 .5 .5 .6 .5 .4 .3 .5 .4 -2.4 -1.4 2.4 1.7 .3 0.4 .3 .4 .2 .3 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .3 .2 -.0 -.0 .4 -1.0 -1.4 9.8 8.8 4.3 7.7 18.2 14.7 11.0 1.7 3.9 9.1 5.8 6.5 7.7 11.3 13.5 10.4 6.1 3.2 Change, month to month 1983: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Get Nov Dec 1984: Jan Feb -0.1 1 Includes items 2 Includes direct 3 not shown separately. pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981. Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc., also included through 1982. 4 Changes are shown in the middle month of the quarter. ^^ NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. 24 .7 .8 ;4 ,3 il --2 • Jl -•3 -A J .6 .3 0.3 4.4 4.1 4.5 -0.3 1.2 2.8 4.9 5.4 4.1 3.8 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.0 0.7 .8 1.4 2.3 3.3 3.4 4.3 5.0 4.4 4.2 4.3 3.5 3.6 3.9 3.5 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.8 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.1 4.6 Data beginning January 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers. Data beginning January 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs and therefore are not strictly comparable with data for earlier periods. ,. _ __ .T , _ , T , Oi ^ ^ Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers rose 1.4 percent in March and prices paid by farmers rose 0.6 percent in the month ended March 15. INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 180 180 60 60 1984 J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE [1977=100] Prices paid by farmers Prices received by farmers Period All farm products 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1983: ... Mar Apr May June July AllfiT Sept Get Nov Dee 1984: Jan Feb r Mar 1 Includes 8 Livestock and products Crops Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates Production items Ratio2 102 100 115 132 134 139 133 135 102 100 105 116 125 134 121 129 101 100 124 147 144 143 145 141 95 100 108 123 138 150 157 161 95 100 109 125 139 151 155 159 97 100 108 125 138 148 150 153 107 100 106 107 97 93 85 84 134 136 137 134 132 139 136 134 135 140 122 127 129 127 126 139 135 134 134 137 146 145 144 141 137 139 137 135 135 143 159 160 161 161 160 161 162 161 162 163 158 159 160 159 159 159 160 159 160 161 152 153 153 153 152 153 154 153 154 155 84 85 85 83 83 86 84 83 83 86 144 144 146 138 137 141 150 151 150 164 165 166 162 163 164 156 156 158 88 87 88 items not shown separately. Percentage ratio of index of prices received bj farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates * NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required bj law. The indexes have been converted to a 1977=100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Series revised beginning 1982. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES Growth in Ml slowed in February, while growth in the broader aggregates accelerated. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) — 400 200 1984 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED -/REVISED DATA NOT YET AVAILABLE PRIOR TO JANUARY 1983. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period Mi M2 M3 L Debt Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OCD) Ml plus overnight KPs and Eurodollars, MMMF balances (general purpose and broker/dealer), MMDAs, and savings and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, term KPs, term Eurodollars, and institution-only MMMF balances M3 plus other liquid assets Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors * (end of month) 1983: Jan 485 1 Feb T ^ June 491 1 4964 497.9 5066 510.9 2 017.5 2 054 0 2 067 4 2,081.8 2 102 2 2,1170 24899 2 517 1 2 532 3 2,550.6 2571 0 25930 29070 2 931 1 2 951 7 2,980.0 3 003 3 3033 1 July * J Auff Sept Get r Nov r Dec r 5149 517.4 5189 521 6 523.0 5253 2 1266 2,135.3 2 147 9 2,167.2 2,182.1 2 196.1 26040 2,617.2 2 6364 2 657.0 2,688.9 2,706 8 30597 3,075.1 3 097 7 3,1144 3,147.3 3 1754 1984- Jan r Feb p 5300 532.9 2 206 1 2,222.1 2 7204 2,743.3 Mar Apr May 1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. NOTI.—Money stock series were revised in February 1984 to incorporate updated seasonal adjustment factors, benchmark revisions, and for M3 a redefinition to include term Eurodollars held by U.S. residents. Data not yet available prior to January 1983. r 5 002 2 5,041.1 5083 7 5 1252 5,166.2 5 2190 5 2759 The nontransactions portion of M2 is now being seasonally adjusted as a whole to reduce distortions caused by substantial portfolio shifts arising from regulatory and financial changes in recent years, especially shifts to MMDAs in 1983. A similar procedure is being used to seasonally adjust the remaining nontransactions balances in M3. See p. 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Systems. 26 4 7403 4 767 4 4 812 5 r 4,849 9 48958 4958 1 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Other Period Currency Demand deposits checkable deposits (OCD) Overnight repurchase agreements (RPs), net, plus overnight Eurodollars General purpose and broker/ dealer Institution only NSA NSA NSA Money market mutual fund balances Money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) Small Savings deposits denomination time deposits 1 Large denomination time deposits 1 NSA Term repurchase agreements (RPs) Term Eurodollars (net) NSA NSA Qoir oavings bonds Shortterm Treasury securities Bankers' acceptances lyommercial paper 44.4 42.9 41.8 41.3 41.0 40.6 41.6 43.6 43.8 42.8 43.0 43.4 113.5 115.1 119.2 122.5 123.4 122.9 124.4 121.0 125.3 125.7 128.2 131.2 1983: Jan Feb 135.7 136.8 Mar 138.1 Apr 139.1 May 140.5 June...... 141.6 July 142.4 Aug 143.5 144.8 Sept Oct 146.0 147.2 Nov r Dec 148.0 1984: Jan r Feb ' 149.9 150.2 47.8 48.5 48.7 50.8 55.4 56.1 53.1 52.4 53.5 57.0 55.2 56.1 168.2 160.6 154.8 148.2 141.4 140.2 138.7 139.1 137.9 137.5 138.8 138.2 46.0 45.4 44.0 41.3 40.5 39.5 38.6 38.4 38.8 39.8 40.6 40.3 189.9 279.6 321.0 341.4 357.4 368.6 370.5 368.6 369.5 370.5 372.9 376.0 337.7 238.8 239.5 241.5 243.0 244.5 243.7 243.0 243.6 242.8 243.7 105.7 112.1 115.0 114.7 120.0 121.7 123.4 125.6 126.4 127.2 128.2 128.8 325.6 322.2 321.9 323.1 322.8 320.7 319.3 317.9 317.1 315.4 312.9 795.2 753.7 733.2 727.4 722.6 724.8 737.0 749.0 759.0 773.0 785.5 793.1 307.4 297.1 295.4 244.5 243.9 130.7 133.9 57.8 58.6 137.9 142.2 40.6 41.6 380.5 386.2 309.8 306.7 797.0 801.0 239.6 237.9 1 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. 298.3 298.0 303.0 304.2 308.6 313.2 315.6 320.7 325.8 39.9 40.4 41.5 42.9 45.6 45.5 44.3 46.9 48.0 47.3 53.4 56.0 82.5 86^0 88.7 91.4 92.3 91.9 92.1 91.9 90.5 r 87.5 r 93.7 92.4 332.7 339.3 53.0 53.7 91.3 91.8 68.0 68.4 191.3 187.6 68.8 69.2 69.5 69.8 70.1 70.3 70.5 70.7 70.8 70.9 189.6 196.4 198.5 206.8 219.6 222.9 221.6 218.2 216.6 223.2 Travelers cheeks are a component of money stock but are not shown here. NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. NOTE.— See note p. 26. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Installment credit extended Period 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983* Total 2 Automobile 210,740 257,600 297,668 324,777 306,076 334,508 344,901 63,743 75,641 87,981 93,901 83,454 93,240 95,997 Installment credit liquidated Bevolving Total 2 Automobile Revolving Total 2 Automobile 43,934 87,596 105,125 120,174 128,068 139,829 150,061 189,179 222,138 254,589 286,396 304,628 316,291 331,805 53,278 60,437 69,245 79,186 82,977 84,745 91,099 41,764 81,348 96,090 111,546 126,653 135,362 145,696 21,561 35,462 43,079 38,381 1,448 18,217 13,096 2,725 735 2,582 2,271 2,696 4,406 4,840 3,388 2,375 4,885 4,671 6,614 4,343 10,465 15,204 18,736 14,715 477 8,495 4,898 625 -233 1,221 689 1,313 1,973 2,421 2,521 285 1,772 1,238 2,019 2,555 Jan Feb..... Mar Am* May June .. July. Augr .. Sept Get .. Nov Dec 1984: Jan 1 Through 1982 calculated as the difference between credit extensions and credit liquidations. Beginning 1983, calculated as change in amount outstanding. 2 Includes "mobile home" and "other," not shown separately. Amount outstanding, end of period, seasonally adjusted Net change in amount outstanding l Revolving 2,170 6,248 9,035 8,628 1,415 4,467 4,365 68 -135 1,177 917 514 1,210 821 313 479 1,145 1,300 1,723 487 Total 2 Automobile 190,725 226,646 269,392 307,115 308,137 326,274 339,316 342,041 342,776 345,358 347,629 350,325 354,731 359,571 362,959 365,334 370,219 374,890 381,504 385,847 67,798 82,890 101,863 116,523 116,808 125,323 130,235 130,860 130,627 131,848 132,537 133,850 135,823 138,244 140,765 141,050 142,822 144,060 146,079 148,634 Revolving 16,505 36,427 45,004 53,174 54,650 58,722 62,830 62,898 62,763 63,940 64,857 65,371 66,581 67,402 67,715 68,194 69,339 70,639 72,362 72,849 NOTE.—Extensions and liquidations not available after December 1982. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES Commercial and industrial loans rose again in January. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 40 1984 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, AVERAGES OF WEDNESDAY FIGURES SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Depository institutions 8 All commercial banks l Loans and leases Period Borrowings (millions of dollars, unadjusted) Reserves adjusted for changes in reserve requirements Investments Total loans and investments Total 2 Commercial and industrial loans U.S. Treasury securities Other securities Total Nonborrowed Required Total Seasonal 1976" 197719781979' 19801981' 19821983- Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec r 804.6 891.5 1,013.5 1,135.9 1,239.6 1,316.3 1,412.0 1,567.6 555.0 632.5 747.0 849.9 915.1 973.9 1,042.0 1,132.1 190.9 210.9 245.9 291.2 326.8 358.0 392.3 413.0 100.8 99.8 93.8 94.5 110.0 111.0 130.9 188.0 148.8 159.3 172.8 191.5 214.4 231.4 239.2 247.5 35.28 34.51 34.72 774 96 1983: Feb Mar Apr May T y .. June July Aug Sept............... Oct ... Nov Dec r 1,436.3 1,450.1 1,460.6 1,474.4 1,488.0 1,499.9 1,513.2 1,520.3 1,532.9 1,548.9 1,567.6 1,048.7 1,056.3 1,059.5 ,063.3 ,070.6 ,080.9 ,091.0 ,096.3 ,104.1 1,115.7 1,132.1 394.9 396.2 392.9 392.9 395.0 399.2 402.5 402.6 404.7 407.8 413.0 144.5 151.0 157.8 166.1 171.2 172.9 174.4 176.9 182.3 186.2 188.0 243.1 242.8 243.4 245.0 246.2 246.1 247.8 247.1 246.5 247.1 247.5 33.67 34.20 34.51 34.60 35.05 35.19 35.22 35.31 35.32 35.25 35.28 33.09 33.41 33.50 33.64 33.42 33.74 33.67 33.87 34.47 34.34 34.51 33.24 33.77 34.03 34.15 34.57 34.69 34.77 34.81 34.81 34.72 34.72 582 792 1,009 952 1,636 1,453 1,546 1,441 844 906 774 40 53 82 99 122 171 198 190 142 121 96 1,582.8 1,142.4 417.6 189.2 251.2 35.50 36.07 34.79 35.50 34.89 35.12 715 567 86 103 1984- Jan p Feb* 1 Data 2 3 are averages of Wednesday figures. Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States. Data are averages of daily figures. NOTE.—Beginning Dec. 1981, bank loans and investments and reserves aggregates have been reduced because of shifts from U.S. banking offices to International Banking Faculties (TBFs). 28 Data for depository institutions were revised in February 1984 to incorporate annual revisions to seasonal adjustment factors and, beginning in February 1984, the conversion to contemporaneous reserve requirements (CRR); data not yet available prior to January 1983. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Uses Sources External Period Total Internal Credit market funds 1 Total Total 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 p. 1982: I n m IV 1983: I n TTT IV Loans and short-term paper Securities and mortgages Total Other 2 Capital expenditures 3 Increase in financial assets Discrepancy (sources less uses) 190.1 156.9 210.8 254.1 317.5 345.7 333.2 365.8 308.6 427.6 85.6 119.7 134.2 157.4 175.7 188.8 189.5 230.6 240.5 280.8 104.4 37.2 76.6 96.7 141.8 156.9 143.7 135.2 68.1 146.8 69.9 30.7 54.5 72.4 80.5 88.2 90.9 92.2 84.1 85.7 26.3 38.7 38.2 35.8 32.8 20.9 52.4 22.5 45.2 55.6 43.6 -8.0 16.3 36.6 47.7 67.3 38.5 69.7 38.9 30.1 34.5 6.5 22.1 24.3 61.3 68.8 52.8 43.0 -16.0 61.1 190.1 150.9 201.8 237.6 293.6 346.7 320.1 324.3 250.9 381.2 137.9 109.7 148.3 175.1 201.6 219.4 221.2 261.6 231.2 260.1 52.2 41.2 53.5 62.5 92.0 127.3 98.9 62.7 19.7 121.1 0.0 6.0 9.0 16.5 23.8 -1.0 13.1 41.6 57.7 46.5 302.8 329.9 327.4 274.5 233.5 240.2 244.0 244.3 69.3 89.7 83.4 30.2 102.8 89.9 89.0 54.6 24.8 38.6 39.6 77.8 78.0 51.3 49.4 23 2 -33.4 232.1 279.3 270.4 222.0 242.4 242.2 240.1 200.2 -10.3 37.1 30.3 21.8 70.8 50.5 56.9 52.5 339.5 456.0 430.0 485.1 250.7 270.3 294.1 308.2 88.8 185.7 135.9 176.9 68.6 80.7 63.7 129.9 63.3 85.8 36.8 36.6 5.3 -5.1 26.9 93.3 276.2 410.6 406.2 431.8 202.4 252.9 282.6 302.4 73.8 157.7 123.6 129.4 63.3 45.4 23.9 53.3 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained abroad. 2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. 2 -5.6 -24.4 20.1 104.9 72.2 47.1 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars, except as noted] Current liabilities Current assets End of period Total SEC series: 2 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 QFR-FRB series: 3 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: I n m IV 1983: I n TTT P. 1 Cash U.S. Government securities 492.3 529.6 599.3 697.8 790.7 50.2 53.3 59.0 66.3 71.1 7.7 11.0 10.6 12.8 12.3 735.4 759.0 827.4 912,7 1,043.7 1,214.8 1,327.0 1,419.3 1,425.4 1,418.0 1,417.2 1,441.8 1,425.4 73.2 82.1 88.2 97.2 105.5 118.0 126.9 131.8 144.0 121.8 124.1 126.9 144.0 11.1 19.0 23.5 18.2 17.2 16.7 18.7 17.4 22.4 16.5 16.5 18.9 22.4 1,436.5 1,464.2 1,522.4 139.7 145.7 148.4 25.8 27.5 26.3 Notes and accounts receivable Total Notes and accounts payable Other current liabilities Net working capital Current ratio 1 193.3 200.4 225.7 263.9 313.6 35.0 43.8 55.8 66.4 71.7 304.9 326.0 375.6 450.9 530.4 211.3 220.5 282.9 340.3 402.3 93.6 105.5 92.7 110.7 128.1 187.4 203.6 223.7 246.9 260.3 1.615 1.625 1.595 1.548 1.491 65.9 69.9 80.3 90.1 101.1 116.0 131.8 154.6 172.6 154.7 157.9 165.3 172.6 453.4 451.6 495.1 557.1 669.5 807.3 889.3 976.3 977.8 269.8 264.2 282.1 317.6 383.0 460.8 513.6 558.8 552.8 987.0 988.7 1,007.6 977.8 552.9 554.9 562.7 552.8 183.6 187.4 213.0 239.6 286.5 346.5 375.7 417.5 425.0 434.0 433.8 444.9 425.0 282.0 307.4 332.4 355.5 374.3 407.5 437.8 442.9 447.6 533.4 531.2 534.2 511.0 319.5 315.9 342.5 376.9 431.8 505.1 542.8 585.1 575.2 591.6 587.6 596.5 575.2 431.0 428.5 434.2 447.6 1.622 1.681 1.671 1.638 1.559 1.505 1.492 1.454 1.458 1.437 1.433 1.431 1.458 517.9 534.3 562.7 573.2 570.5 591.1 179.9 186.2 193.8 986.3 997.7 1,038.6 543.2 551.6 578.8 443.1 446.1 459.9 450.2 466.5 483.7 1.456 1.468 1.466 206.1 221.1 248.2 288.5 322.1 265.8 272.1 292.9 330.3 388.0 459.0 506.8 530.3 511.0 Total current assets divided by total current liabilities. * Based on data from Statistics of Income, Department of the Treasury. 3 Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations, Effective mid-1982, responsibility for the - Quarterly Financial Report was transferred to the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census from the Federal Trade Commission. Other current assets Inventories NOTE.—SEC series not available after 1974. See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details regarding the series. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census), Federal Trade Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates rose in March. PERCENT PER ANNUM -;- 16 16 \ \ An .A \ • .* : ' 14 • :/: V / \ • :* \ \ ' \ \ l-'f \\ J \ A/ \u ^ ff DISCOUNT /• RATE [/ FEDERAL 1 RESERVE \ r ? BANK OF J-" /•" NEW YORK p / 12 £I .r / /' / V s 1 L A n '•* i ! j / \\ // -/ l 1 : j ' ^ Ir I. I X ^ v'l ^- , ,- -/ \\ \ 1 (1 V /-•/ s \ 12 / *': H : -: - 10 iI ih \• h1 / TREASURY -^^" BILLS t 14 * \ v ^ |// CORPORATE Aaa BONDS | k-V'-S J-i' V (MOODY'S) ^ J<* .^ — ^ *- / \^ ^ \.. V 8 ,. ... / \ f/ .../ "~ ...-../ g | 17 6 f. I 4 ^1 I i 1 1 I I I i 1 I i i i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 V 1977 1976 11111 11111 i ii ii i i i ii 1979 1978 i i i Inn III 1980 11 1 1 111 1981 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II 1982 SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW i iiiI 1983 I l M I II I 1 IK4 N 1984 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] U.S. Treasury security yields Period 3-month bills 1 Constant maturities 3-year 2 10-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard3 & Poor's) Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) Prime commercial paper, 4 6 months 4 7.99 10.91 12.29 14.76 11.89 8.89 Discount rate (N.Y. F.E. Bank)5 Prime rate charged 5by banks 7.221 10.041 11.506 14.029 10.686 8.63 8.29 9.72 11.55 14.44 12.92 10.45 8.41 9.44 11.46 13.91 13.00 11.10 5.90 6.39 8.51 11.23 11.57 9.47 8.73 9.63 11.94 14.17 13.79 12.04 Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1984- Jan . Peb Mar p 8.304 8.252 8.19 8.82 9.12 9.39 9.05 8.71 8.71 8.96 8.93 9.03 9.44 9.84 9.76 9.66 10.32 10.90 11.30 11.07 10.87 10.96 11.13 10.93 11.05 11.58 10.51 10.40 10.38 10.85 11.38 11.85 11.65 11.54 11.69 11.83 11.67 11.84 12.32 9.16 8.96 9.03 9.51 9.46 9.72 9.57 9.64 9.79 9.90 9.61 9.63 9.92 11.73 11.51 11.46 11.74 12.15 12.51 12.37 12.25 12.41 12.57 12.20 12.08 12.57 8.48 8.48 8.31 9.03 9.36 9.68 9.28 8.98 9.09 9.50 9.18 9.31 9.86 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 11.00-10.50 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 11.50-11.00 Week ended: 1984: Mar 3 10 17 24 31 p 9.20 9.24 9.37 9.65 9.76 11.24 11.38 11.53 11.77 11.78 12.05 12.18 12.29 12.46 12.45 9.78 9.86 9.91 9.97 9.92 12.30 12.46 12.58 12.65 12.71 9.44 9.58 9.82 10.09 10.11 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 11.50-11.00 11.50-11.50 1978 1979 1980 1981 .... 1982 1983 7.46 10.28 11.77 13.41 11.02 8.50 High-low 1983- Mar Apr May June July 1 Rate on new issues within period; bank-discount basis. Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. 8 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Bank-discount basis. Prior to November 1, 1979, data are for 4-6 months paper. 5 Average effective rate for year; high and low rate for month and week. 2 30 9.06 12.67 15.27 18.87 14.86 10.79 New-home mortgage yields (PHLBB)6 9.56 10.78 12.66 14.70 15.14 12.57 High-low 13.41 12.42 12.67 12.36 12.50 12.38 12.54 12.25 12.34 12.42 r 12.29 12.28 6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Rates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS On average, most stock price indexes were little changed in March. INDEX, DEC 31, 1965=50 1001 INDEX, DEC, 31,1965=50 1100 90 80 70 - 70 COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX (NYSE)- 60 60 50 50 40 40 I_LJ 1976 1977 1978 I 1981 1980 1979 1982 1983 ! 1984 PERCENT EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS (S&P) 10 - 10 1984 1976 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Common stock prices1 Period New York Stock Exchange indexes (I)ec. 31, 1965—5O) Composite 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 . 1983 1983- Mar Apr May June July AufiT Sept Oct Nov Dec 1984- Jan Feb Mar p Week ended: 1984' Mar 3 10 17 24 31 p 1 Industrial Transportation Finance Utility Dow-Jones industrial average 8 Standard & Poor's composite index (194143 = 10)4 Dividendprice ratio 53.70 58.32 68.10 74.02 68.93 92.63 87.50 90.61 94.61 96.43 96.74 93.96 96.70 96.78 95.36 94.92 96.16 90.60 90.66 58.23 64.76 78.70 85.44 78.18 107.45 100.61 104.46 109.43 112.52 113.21 109.50 112.76 112.87 110.77 110.65 112.16 105.44 105.92 43.50 47.34 60.61 72.61 60.41 89.36 83.28 85.26 89.07 92.22 92.91 88.06 94.56 95.41 97.68 98.79 97.98 86.33 86.10 39.22 38.20 37.35 38.91 39.75 47.00 45.89 46.22 47.62 46.76 46.61 46.94 48.16 48.73 48.50 47.00 47.43 45.67 44.83 56.65 61.42 64.25 73.52 71.99 95.34 93.22 99.07 102.45 101.22 99.60 95.76 97.00 94.79 94.48 94.25 95.79 89.95 89.50 820.23 844.40 891.41 932.92 884.36 1,190.34 1,129.58 1,168.43 1,212.86 1,221.47 1,213.93 ,189.21 ,237.04 ,252.20 ,250.01 ,257.64 1,258.89 1,164.46 1,161.97 96.02 103.01 118.78 128.05 119.71 160.41 151.88 157.71 164.10 166.39 166.96 162.42 167.16 167.65 165.23 164.36 166.39 157.25 157.44 5.28 5.47 5.26 5.20 5.81 4.40 4.59 4.44 4.27 4.26 4.21 4.35 4.24 4.25 4.31 4.32 4.27 4.59 4.64 90.99 89.69 90.60 90.84 91.23 106.25 104.45 105.82 106.24 106.89 85.88 84.39 86.53 86.80 86.59 45.29 45.08 44.88 44.72 44.30 89.41 89.14 89.20 89.29 90.22 1,164.53 1,149.64 1,167.59 1,165.74 1,163.50 158.12 155.65 157.31 157.77 158.51 4.62 4.70 4.64 4.63 4.57 prices. Average of daily cloi than 1,500) listed on the NYSE. Includes all the stocks 1 Includes 30 stocks. * Includes 500 stocks. 8 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings2 3 Common stock yields (percent) 5 2 Earningsprice ratio 12.03 13.46 12.66 11.96 11.60 8.12 7.49 r 8.01 price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NTSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first 5 months of fiscal year 1984, there was a budget deficit of $89.2 billion, compared to a budget deficit of $103.2 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS 900 900 800 800 700 700 BUDGET OUTLAYS 600 600 500 500 400 400 BUDGET SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-) 0 0 - . '__ — ^ ^ -100 inn "\ onn -200 1 1976 1 1977 1 1978 1 1 1979 1980 1 1981 1 1982 I 1983 1 1984 1985 FISCAL YEARS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Budget receipts Period Fiscal year or period: 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Transition quarter 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 (estimates)1 1985 (estimates)1 Cumulative total first 5 months: Fiscal year 1983 Fiscal year 1984 1 . . .. . . . Budget surplus or deficit (-) Off-budget surplus or deficit (— ) Total surplus or deficit (-) Federal debt (end of period) Gross Held by the public 207.3 230.8 263.2 279.1 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 670.1 745.1 230.7 245.6 267.9 324.2 364.5 94.2 400.5 448.4 491.0 576.7 657.2 728.4 796.0 853.8 925.5 -23.4 148 -4.7 -45.2 -66.4 -13.0 449 -48.8 27 7 -59.6 579 -110.6 - 195.4 183.7 -180.4 01 -1.4 81 -7.3 -1.8 -8.7 -10.4 125 -14.2 21.0 -17.3 -12.4 -16.2 -14.8 -23.4 -14.9 -6.1 -53.2 -73.7 -14.7 536 -59.2 -40.2 -73.8 789 -127.9 -207.8 -199.9 -195.2 437.3 468.4 486.2 544.1 "631.9 646.4 709.1 780.4 833.8 914.3 1,003.9 1,147.0 1,381.9 1,591.6 1,828.4 323.8 343.0 346.1 396.9 480.3 498.3 551.8 610.9 644.6 715.1 794.4 929.4 1,141.8 1,324.8 1,517.8 233.4 259.8 336.5 349.0 -103.2 -89.2 1.5 .4 -104.7 -88.8 1,220.1 1,462.1 1,015.7 1,219.8 Estimates from the Budget of the United States Government, FY1985, February 1984. 32 Budget outlays Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 5 months of fiscal year 1984, budget receipts were $26.4 billion higher than a year earlier and budget outlays were $12.5 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 100 CORPORATION INCOME TAXES I I BUDGET OUTLAYS 600 600 NONDEFENSE 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 1977 1976 1978 1979 1984 1983 1982 1980 1981 FISCAL YEARS 1985 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Budget receipts Budget outlays National defense Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes 122.4 131.6 157.6 181.0 217.8 244.1 670.1 745.1 285.9 297.7 288.9 293.3 328.4 40.6 41.4 54.9 60.0 65.7 64.6 61.1 49.2 37.0 66.6 76.5 233.4 259.8 122.9 127.6 7.9 13.5 Period Total Other Total Total Department of Defense, military International affairs Social security and medicare Health and income security _Net inter- Other est Fiscal year or period: 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 (estimates) 1985 (estimates) 279.1 298.1 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 l 1 Cumulative total first 5 months: Fiscal year 1983 Fiscal year 1884 116.1 125.0 143.0 158.6 179.8 208.4 252.2 270.8 274.6 491.0 340.2 237.5 2 272.0 102.5 118.8 336.5 349.0 84.2 91.7 310.2 84.9 87.9 95.6 103.0 115.0 132.8 156.0 182.9 85.6 89.4 97.5 105.2 117.7 135.9 159.7 187.4 210.5 576.7 657.2 728.4 796.0 853.8 925.5 1 Estimates from Budget of the United States Government, FY1985, February 1984. 2 Starting in 1985 military retired pay will be financed from a trust fund in the income security function. The national defense function will include accrual charges to pay for retirement benefits earned by currently active duty personnel, and these will be offset in the undistributed offsetting receipts (employer share, employee retirement). In this table the data for the earlier years have not been adjusted to be comparable to this new usage. 324.2 364.5 400.5 448.4 264.4 7.1 5.7 5.0 6.1 6.3 10.9 11.3 10.1 9.0 13.5 17.5 82.1 89.0 3.1 5.5 205.0 231.0 2 202.5 223.3 240.2 260.3 56.8 69.2 70.1 70.8 76.6 97.6 112.4 119.5 134.9 126.6 2 147.3 23.2 26.7 29.9 35.4 42.6 52.5 68.7 85.0 89.8 108.2 116.1 74.1 83.7 93.6 114.2 117.3 129.1 126.4 123.8 128.5 127.6 2 112.2 99.3 106.2 49.1 44.7 38.6 43.2 62.2 57.8 77.5 89.7 104.4 116.6 130.6 150.6 178.7 NOTE.—The Social Security Amendments of 1983 require that social security and medicare be shown in the budget as a separate function. In previous budgets social security was in the income security function and medicare was in the health function. The data in this table have been reconstructed to be comparable for all years shown. Data shown here exclude the transition quarter. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS In the fourth quarter of 1983, according to preliminary estimates, Federal receipts rose $12.3 billion (annual rate) and expenditures rose $14.8 billion, yielding a deficit of $189.9 billion; in the third quarter, the deficit was $187.3 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 800 800 700 700 600 EXPENDITURES 600 +* 500 500 RECEIPTS 400 400 300 300 I 1 1 1 I I I 1 I I 1 1 I 1 i 1 I 1 1 1 1 8 I I SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (- -200 1975 1976 I 1977 1978 1979 1980 I 1981 1982 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Government expenditures Federal Government receipts Period Total Fiscal year: 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Calendar year: 1979 1980 1981 1982 r 1983 1982: I n m IV 1983: I n mr IV Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Contributions for social insurance Total Purchases of goods and services Transfer payments Grantsin-aid to State and local governments Net interest paid f Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Surplus or deficit (T), national income and product accounts 480.8 525.9 610.3 627.8 630.7 222.6 250.4 289.3 310.4 295.3 76.1 69.9 70.5 51.3 54.3 29.1 35.5 53.6 50.3 50.7 153.1 170.0 196.9 215.7 230.4 495.6 576.5 668.1 740.0 816.4 164.1 189.3 218.5 251.0 274.7 201.8 239.4 279.3 310.2 344.7 86.7 90.1 83.4 85.7 40.6 50.7 67.7 82.2 90.6 9.9 10.4 12.5 13.2 20.3 -0.0 .0 .1 -.0 — .4 -14.8 -50.7 -57.8 -112.2 -185.7 493.6 540.9 627.0 617.4 644.6 619.5 622.2 615.2 612.6 230.6 257.7 298.6 304.7 295.9 306.5 308.5 300.6 303.0 74.2 70.3 67.5 46.5 60.3 47.6 48.4 47.8 42.1 29.4 39.0 56.4 48.3 54.0 49.5 47.7 47.9 48.3 159.5 173.9 204.5 217.9 234.4 215.8 217.6 218.9 219.3 509.7 602.1 689.2 764.4 826.3 728.0 735.4 773.5 820.9 168.3 197.0 229.2 258.7 274.8 249.7 244.1 261.7 279.2 209.2 251.5 286.6 321.1 345.4 302.5 311.2 325.9 344.8 80.5 88.7 87.9 83.9 86.5 82.5 85.1 83.0 85.0 42.4 53.4 73.2 84.9 96.5 79.7 82.3 88.6 89.1 9.2 11.5 12.4 15.8 22.6 13.4 12.7 14.2 22.8 -.0 .0 .1 -.0 .0 .0 .0 -16.1 -61.2 -62.2 -147.1 -181.6 -108.5 -113.2 -158.3 -208.2 623.3 652.6 645.2 657.5 297.7 304.2 286.9 295.0 48.6 59.8 66.6 66.4 48.6 56.0 55.5 55.8 228.5 232.6 236.2 240.3 806,6 818.7 832.5 847.3 273.5 273.7 278.1 274.1 340.3 347.0 343.5 350.9 85.8 86.7 87.2 86.4 88.4 91.8 101.0 104.6 18.6 18.2 22.3 31.3 .0 -1.3 -A .0 -183.3 -166.1 -187.3 -189.9 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget. 34 79.1 ^ -.1 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES [1967 = 100] Industrial production (seasonally adjusted) Period United States 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 " 1983: Feb Mar Apr May June July " J Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1984- Jan p Feb 1 138.2 146.1 152.5 147.0 151.0 138.6 147.6 138.1 140.0 142.6 144.4 146.4 149.7 151.8 153.8 155.0 r 155.3 r 156.1 1580 1599 .. Canada Japan 152.7 157.8 167.6 165.1 166.6 148.8 157.6 r 149.1 r 150.1 r 151.8 r 153.5 r 157.1 r 157.8 r 160.8 r 163.8 r 164.3 r 166.1 167.8 189.7 201.1 215.3 225.2 227.5 228.4 236.0 225.9 231.5 230.6 231.1 233.3 234.0 241.2 241.9 241.4 246.4 r 248.2 250.2 France 152 155 163 161 160 158 156 !56 156 160 157 160 160 157 155 r !61 160 161 r Consumer prices (unadjusted) United Kingdom Italy Germany 145.1 147.9 157.6 166.5 162.7 159.1 150.7 148.9 148.2 141.5 148.5 145.1 146.9 134.9 151.1 148.6 152.8 146.0 152.0 154.1 161.5 162.0 r 159.1 r 154.5 155.5 r !51.6 r 153.7 153.7 153.7 159.2 r 154.5 r 155.2 r 157.1 r 157.5 r 160.2 161.0 160.9 Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. United States l 124.2 127.8 132.9 124.1 r 119.5 r !21.6 124.8 r 123.9 r 122.7 r 123.9 r 124.2 r 122.5 125.4 r 125.3 r 126.2 r 126.1 r 126.3 127.7 128.6 Canada 181.5 195.4 217.4 246.8 272.4 289.1 298.4 293.2 293.4 295.5 297.1 298.1 299.3 300.3 301.8 302.6 303.1 303.5 305.2 306.6 r 185.9 202.5 221.0 243.5 273.9 303.4 321.0 313.9 317.1 317.1 317.9 321.5 322.9 324.5 324.5 326.5 326.5 327.5 329.2 331.1 Japan Prance Germany 243.0 252.3 261.3 282.2 296.2 304.1 309.7 305.5 307.5 308.6 312.0 309.7 308.3 307.4 311.4 314.2 312.2 311.4 214.5 233.9 259.1 294.2 332.7 373.1 407.9 392.9 396.5 401.8 404.5 406.9 410.4 412.8 416.0 419.2 420.9 422.4 425.4 155.9 160.2 166.8 175.9 186.3 196.2 202.1 200.0 199.8 200.3 201.1 201.8 202.6 203.2 203.6 203.6 204.1 204.5 205.6 206.2 Italy 255.2 286.2 328.5 398.0 472.4 549.4 631.8 610.5 616.0 622.2 628.2 632.2 638.5 641.1 649.4 660.4 667.0 670.3 678.3 685.8 United Kingdom 292.4 316.6 359.0 423.6 473.9 514.7 538.3 525.8 526.7 534.1 536.4 537.7 540.6 543.0 545.4 547.3 549.2 550.7 550.4 552.6 Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, Office of Trade Information and Analysis, Trade Performance Division, in International Economic Indicators. U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Merchandise imports Merchandise exports * Total domestic and foreign exports Period Total 2 Food, beverages, and tobacco Crude materials and fuels Merchandise trade balance General imports 3 Domestic exports Manufactured goods Total2 Food, beverages, and tobacco Crude materials and fuels Manufactured goods Total (c.i.f. value) 827 991 1,186 1,312 1,478 1,546 2,716 3,457 4,463 4,325 5,949 7,831 4,257 5,398 6,379 8,360 9,352 10,427 8,823 11,042 13,368 15,504 18,519 21,415 Exports (f.a.s.) less imports (customs value) Exports (f.a.s.) less imports (f.a.s.) Exports (f.a.s.) less imports (c.i.f.) 762 -688 -2,430 -2,590 -2,300 -2,020 148 -1,440 -3,265 -3,530 -3,364 -3,030 F.a.s. value Monthly average: 1975* 1976* 1977*..... 1978* 1979* 1980 8,971 9,602 10,103 11,973 15,155 18,386 8,847 9,462 9,919 11,762 14,886 18,043 1,399 1,436 1,330 1,717 2,049 2,534 1,266 1,341 1,548 1,74$ 2,352 2,810 5,913 6,437 6,679 7,873 9,716 11,991 8,209 10,290 12,533 14,563 17,455 20,406 1981 1982 1983.... 19,473 17,683 16,707 19,075 17,256 16,326 2,767 2,248 2,248 2,752 2,793 2,463 12,857 11,643 11,034 21,748 20,329 21,504 1,529 1,485 1,568 7,739 6,200 5,670 11,873 12,002 13,621 22,779 -2,275 21,240 -2,647 22,490 -4,797 -3,306 3558 -5,783 17,232 16,312 16,690 16,095 15,655 16,959 16,486 16,582 17,257 17,033 17,063 17,298 16,846 15,970 16,273 15,743 15,275 16,602 16,158 16,195 16,892 16,580 16,664 16,895 2,744 2,406 2,373 2,483 2,332 2,425 2,388 2,745 2,691 2,345 2,270 2,532 11,139 10,787 10,973 10,632 10,375 11,515 11,028 10,882 11,147 11,241 11,277 11,407 20,127 18,804 19,528 19,914 21,446 20,916 21,828 22,714 22,451 24,333 23,115 22,976 11,977 12,438 12,602 13,012 13,239 13,101 13,796 13,912 13,754 15,107 15,124 15,478 21,075 19,682 20,387 20,821 22,406 21,852 22,858 23,746 23,477 25,465 24,185 24,033 -2,895 -2,493 -2,837 -3,819 -5,791 -3,957 5 g^j -6432 5 195 -7,300 -6,052 -5,678 -3,843 -3,371 -3,696 -4,726 -6,751 -4,893 -6,371 -7,164 -6,221 -8,432 -7,122 -6,735 17,847 16,7B7 2,664 2,532 12,097 11,372 26,586 ,700 ,433 ,558 ,593 ,712 ,490 ,486 ,480 1,466 1,747 1,565 1,591 1,759 5,902 4,422 4,648 4,517 5,829 5,567 6,011 6,581 6,465 6,855 5,891 5,360 18,326 17,213 2,291 2,203 2,336 2,079 2,003 2,142 2,063 2,046 2,314 2,452 2,605 2,449 2,402 2,103 6,063 17,948 27,794 -8,260 27,305 -9,468 -10,092 Customs value 1983: Jan r . Feb r Mar r Apr r May r June r July r AU2 r Sept r Get r Nov r Dee r ... . 1984' Jan Feb 1 Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military- Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginning January 1978. 8 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. 3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. NOTE.—Imports on c.i.f. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods. Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Islands exports are reflected in the figures for domestic and foreign, exports combined and trade bal- 'Data for 1975-79 for domestic and foreign exports combined, total general imports, and trade balance include trade of the Virgin Islands. Seasonally adjusted data for exports and imports (c.i.f.) beginning 1983 are as revised in February issue of Economic Indicators; custom imports revised beginning 1983 in this issue. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS The current account deficit increased to a record $15.3 billion in the fourth quarter of 1983. AH major components contributed to the increase. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 10 10 BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES -5 \ / -10 -10 "MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE -15 -15 -20 -20 I 1 1 -25 1976 1977 1978 I 1979 1 1 1980 -25 1981 1982 1983 1984 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits (—)] Merchandise * Period 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 » balance -98,185 -124,228 -151,907 - 176,020 -212,028 -249,781 -265,086 -247,606 r - 260,753 8,903 -9,483 -31,091 -33,966 -27,555 -25,544 -28,067 -36,389 r - 60,550 25,351 29,286 32,179 42,245 64,132 72,445 86,243 84,146 78,035 -12,564 -13,311 -14,217 -21,680 -32,914 -42,875 -52,760 -56,842 -54,454 12,787 15,975 17,962 20,565 31,218 29,570 33,483 27,304 23,581 -746 559 1,528 621 -1,778 -2,286 -1,355 179 483 -2,792 -2,558 -3,565 -3,573 -2,935 -1,434 -598 -2,095 -4,243 55,636 54,996 52,241 48,344 -61,739 -60,850 -65,319 -59,698 -6,103 -5,854 -13,078 -11,354 20,761 22,316 21,569 19,499 -13,824 -14,779 -14,748 -13,491 6,937 7,537 6,821 6,008 -51 201 54 -26 -208 -561 -557 -769 49,350 48,757 50,429 r 51,667 -58,206 -63,462 -68,607 r - 70,478 -8,856 -14,705 -18,178 r - 18,811 17,644 18,957 20,890 20,544 -12,608 -13,326 -14,009 -14,512 5,036 5,631 6,881 6,032 516 117 -132 -17 -920 -1,206 -694 -1,423 107,088 114,745 120,816 142,054 184,473 224,237 237,019 211,217 r 200,203 n m IV nr m IV P Net travel and transportation receipts Payments Imports 1 Excludes military pants. 2 Adjusted from Census data 3 for differences in timing and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. 36 Net Balance on goods and services * Remittances, pensions, and other unilateral trans-1 fers 22,749 4,598 9,205 4,711 5,272 -9,894 6,013 -10,340 4,686 5,735 7,172 7,477 11,523 8,060 7,822 -3,177 8,550 -32,177 -4,613 -4,998 -4,617 -5,106 -5,649 -7,056 -6,931 -8,034 -8,599 18,136 4,207 -14,511 -15,446 -964 421 4,592 -11,211 -40,776 2,625 3,236 -4,854 -4,190 -2,061 -1,802 -1,742 -2,431 564 1,434 -6,596 -6,621 Net Net military transactions Receipts Exports 1982- I 1983- I r r Investment income 3 2 Other services, net 3 2,050 1,914 1,906 1,951 -2,104 2,120 2,240 -7,924 -9,959 2,164 2,027 -12,192 NOTE,—Data revised for 1983. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Balance on current account -1,561 -3,665 -1,823 -9,747 -2,115 -12,074 -3,099 -15,291 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $12.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 1983 compared with a $2.0 billion increase in the third quarter. Liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $26.3 billion compared with a $16.1 billion increase in the third quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 60 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 60 40 CHANGE IN FOREIGN ASSETS IN THE U.S.,NET v /l 1% 20 40 I \ I -20 CHANGE IN U.S. ASSETS ABROAD, NET -40 -60 1984 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Foreign assets in the U.S., net [increase/ capital inflow (+)] 2 U.S. assets abroad, net [increase /eapit il outflow (— )] Period Total 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 p 1982: -39,703 -51,269 -34,785 -61,130 -64,331 -86,052 -110,601 -118,045 -49,297 I IV -31,456 -40,934 -26,099 -19,553 1983: Fr -21,633 n ra n. mrp.... -576 9 126 IY .... -17,961 U.S. official reserve assets 1 2 Other U.S. Government assets U.S. private assets Total Other foreign assets Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) 15,670 36,518 51,319 64,036 38,752 54,922 80,678 87,866 83,018 7,027 17,693 36,816 33,678 -13,665 15,566 5,430 3,172 6,083 8,643 18,826 14,503 30,358 52,416 39,356 75,248 84,694 76,935 -29,560 -38,313 -1,950 807 -1,489 2 502 934 27,124 31,612 17,613 11,517 -3,061 1,930 2,642 1,661 30,185 29,682 14,972 9,855 3,768 7,887 15,082 14,657 -787 16 529 -953 -1,053 -1,162 1 206 -1,476 -19,793 16,452 10,956 19,447 36,164 49 1,973 -2,581 6,642 16,403 8,983 22,028 29,521 8,845 -634 1,753 -2,911 -375 732 -1,133 -8,155 -5,175 -4,965 -1,196 -1,089 -1,132 -794 22 803 -16,670 570 -8,449 -15,532 1,139 1,152 1,093 Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy 5,897 10,544 — 2 023 12,540 25,404 29,556 24,238 41,390 7,055 -3,474 -35,380 -4,214 44,498 -3,693 -30,717 -4,660 57,202 -3,746 -59,453 -5,140 -72,757 -5,078 -100,348 -5,732 - 107,348 4897 43 204 -849 2558 1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDRs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the IMF. 2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. Foreign official assets Statistical discrepancy Allocations of special drawing rights (SDKs) U.S. official reserve assets, net * (unadjusted, end of period) 16,226 18,747 19,312 18,650 18,956 26,756 30,074 33,958 33,747 -729 881 1,042 29,944 30,671 30,993 33,958 -200 802 1 361 758 34,261 33,876 33,066 33,747 -1,190 Note.—Data revised for first 3 quarters of 1983. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product..' Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment—Nonfarm Business 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures.. Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets Consumer Installment Credit Bank Loans and Investments, and Reserves Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations Interest Rates and Bond Yields , Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: p Preliminary. r Revised. c Corrected. ... Not available (also, not applicable). For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, B.C. 20402. Price $4.25 (single copy) ($5.35 foreign). Subscription price: $25.00 per year; $31.25 for foreign mailing. 38 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1984 0—32-650