Full text of Economic Indicators : March 1976
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94th Congress, 2d Session LIBRARY APK Z ,' 1Q7R FEDERAL Rfc.afc.HVE SANK OF CHICAGO Economic Indicators March 1976 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1976 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) HUBERT H. HUMPHREY, Minnesota, Chairman RICHARD BOLLING, Missouri, Vice Chairman SENATE JOHN SPARKMAN (Alabama) WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) ABRAHAM RIBICOFF (Connecticut) LLOYD M. BENTSEN, JR. (Texas) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) JACOB JL JAVITS (New York) CHARLES H. PERCY (Illinois) ROBERT TAFT, JR. (Ohio) PAUL J. FANNIN (Arizona) HOUSE OF REPRBSENTAHVES HENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin) WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD (Pennsylvania) LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana) GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana) OTIS G. PIKE (New York) CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio) GARRY BROWN (Michigan) MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts) JOHN H. ROUSSELOT (California) JOHN R. STARK, Executive Director LOUGHLIN F. McHuGH, Senior Economist RICHARD F. KAUFMAN, General Counsel COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS ALAN GREENSPAN, Chairman PAUL W. MAcAVOY BURTON G. MALKIEL Economic Indicators prepared under supervision of FRANCES M. JAMES [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sr Congress; CHAPTER 237—1st SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S J. Res. 5S] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators'* Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled. That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators d that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and t 'gcant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public* Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at 85 cents a single copy or by subscription at $10.10 per year ($2.55 additional for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON D.C. 20402 Subscribers who wish to receive it at an earlier date after release may take advantage of provisions for airmail subscriptions. The domestic airmail subscription price is $3.60 additional per year. ii TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to revised estimates for the fourth quarter, gross national product increased $44.4 billion or at a 12.1 percent annual rate, reflecting an inflation rate of 6.8 percent and a 5.0 percent rate of increase in real GNP. MUONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILUONS OF DOLLARS (RATO SCALE) 1JOO SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES MOO 1,400 1,400 GNP IN CURRENT DOLLARS 1,200 GNP / IN 1972 DOLLARS 1,000 1,000 800 800 i t I I f 1968 1969 1. I t 1970 I 1 1971 I ! t \ \ f t \ 1974 1973 1972 t I t 1975 t t t 197$ COUNCIL or ECOWOMJC ADveas SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures 688. 1 430. 2 1965 1966. 753.0 464.8 1967 .. 796.3 490.4 1968 868. 5 535. 9 1969 935.5 579.7 982. 4 618.8 1970 1971 1, 063. 4 668.2 1972 1, 171. 1 733.0 1973 1, 306. 3 808.5 1974 1, 406. 9 885.9 1, 498. 9 963.8 1975 1974: !_.„ 1, 370. 9 849.5 II... 1, 391. 0 877.8 III.. 1, 424. 4 907.7 IV. _ 1, 441. 3 908.4 1975: !_-_ 1, 433. 6 926.4 II... 1, 460. 6 950.3 III.. 1, 528. 5 977.4 IV.. 1, 572. 9 1, 001. 0 Net exports Exports Imports 112.0 124.5 120.8 131.5 146.2 140.8 160.0 188.3 220.5 212.2 182.6 218.4 212.7 207.6 210. 3 168.7 161.4 194.9 205.4 7.6 5.1 4,9 2.3 1.8 3.9 1.6 — 3.3 7.4 7.7 21.3 15.6 4.0 3.2 8.2 17.3 24.2 22. 1 2L7 39.5 42.8 45.6 49.9 547 62.5 65.6 72.7 101.5 144.2 147.8 133.1 141.6 148.6 153.6 148.2 140.7 148.5 153.8 32.0 37.7 40.6 47.7 52.9 58.5 64.0 75.9 94.2 136.5 126.5 117.5 137.6 145.5 145.3 130.9 116.4 126.4 132. 1 * This category corresponds closely with budget outlays for national defense shown on p. 33. Go^^ eminent purchases of goods and services Federal State NaNonTotal and tional Total delocal de- 1 fense fense ExporlDS and imi>orts of goocis and services Gross private domestic investment 138.4 158.7 180.2 198.7 207.9 218.9 233.7 253.1 269.9 301. 1 331.2 287.5 296.5 305.9 314.4 321.2 324.7 334.1 344.8 67. 3 78.8 90.9 98.0 97.5 95.6 96.2 102.1 102.0 11L7 123.2 106.1 ioa9 113.6 118.2 119.4 119.2 1242 129.9 49.4 60.3 71.5 76.9 76.3 73.5 70.2 73.5 73.4 77.4 840 748 75.8 78.4 80.5 81.4 82.1 849 87.4 17.8 ia5 19.5 21.2 21.2 22. 1 26.0 2R6 28.6 343 39.2 31.4 33.0 35. 1 37.7 3ao 37.1 39.3 42.5 71. 1 79.8 89.3 100.7 110.4 m.2 137.5 151.0 168.0 189.4 208.0 181.4 187.6 192.3 196.3 201.9 205.5 209.9 2148 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Itnal sales 678. § 738. 7 786.2 860.8 926.2 978.6 1, 057. 1 1, 161. T 1,28&8 1, 397. 2 1, 513. 5 1, 356. 1 1, 381. 7 1, 420. 0 1, 430. 9> 1, 45a 4 1, 490. 2 1, 530. 6 1, 574 0 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS [Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Exp orts of gc ods Gross imvate dc mestic mnd services i:ttvestmen b Personal Gross conChange national sumpNonResi- in busition product "NTof JLNcu resiExports Imports expend- dential dential ness in- exports ventofixed itures fixed ries Governinent pure hases of goods and serdees Total Federal State and local Final sales 925.9 981.0 1, 007. 7 1, 051. 8 1, 07a 8 1, 075. 3 1, 107. 5 1, 171. 1 1, 233. 4 1, 210. 7 1, 186. 1 558. 1 586. 1 603. 2 633.4 655.4 668.9 691.9 733.0 766.3 759. 8 766.9 95.6 106. 1 103.5 108.0 114.3 110.0 108. 0 116.8 131.3 127.5 112. 2 43.2 38.5 37.2 42.8 43.2 40.4 52.2 62.0 60. 1 44.7 36.6 11. 3 16. 7 12.0 8.7 10.6 4.3 6.6 9.4 16.0 7.7 -10.5 8.2 4.3 3. 5 -.4 — 1. 3 1.4 -.6 -3.3 7.2 16.6 23.4 49. 1 51.6 54.2 58.5 62.2 67.1 67.9 72.7 87.6 97.6 90.6 41. 0 47. 3 50. 7 58. 9 63. 5 65. 7 68. 5 75.9 80.4 81.0 67.2 209. 6 229. 3 248.3 259. 2 256. 7 250.2 249.4 253. 1 252. 5 254.3 257.6 100. 5 112.5 125.3 128.3 121. 8 110.7 103.9 102. 1 96. 1 95.0 94.3 109. 1 116.8 123. 1 130.9 134.9 139. 5 145.5 151.0 156.3 159.3 163.3 914.6 964.3 995.7 1, 043. 1 1, 068. 2 1, 071. 0 1, 100. 9 1, 161. 7 1, 217. 3 1, 203. 0 1, 196. 6 1974: I _ _ . 1, 228. 7 II... 1, 217. 2 III.. 1, 210. 2 TV— 1, 186. 8 760.0 763.2 767.2 748.9 134.5 129.9 125.0 120.8 49.1 47.1 44. 1 38.5 12.4 6.8 4.2 7.6 18.7 15. 3 15. 1 17.4 98. 1 99. 5 96.9 95.7 79. 5 84.2 81. 9 78. 3 254.0 255.0 254.7 253. 6 94.7 94.7 95.7 94.7 159. 3 160.2 159.0 158.9 1, 216. 3 1, 210. 4 1, 206. 0 1, 179. 3 1975: I... 1, 158. 6 II 1, 168. 1 III.. 1, 201. 5 IV... I,2ia2 752.3 764.1 771.6 779.4 115.2 110.8 110.6 112.3 33.6 34.0 38.0 40.7 — 19.0 —20. 7 -.8 -1.6 21.5 24.9 23.5 23.8 90.7 86.8 90.8 94.0 69.2 62.0 67.3 70.2 255.1 254.9 258.7 261.6 93. 7 92.4 94.9 96. 1 161.4 162.5 163.8 165. 5 1, 177. 6 1, 188. 7 1, 202. 4 1, 217. 8 1965 1966 1967—— 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1972=100] Gross national product Period Persona consumi)tion expemditures Total 74.32 76. 76 79.02 .... 82. 57 86. 72 91.36 96.02 100. 00 105. 92 116. 20 126. 37 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975. 1974:1 II III IV rv. Nonres- ResiNonDurable durable Services idential dential goods fixed fixed goods State Exports Imports Federal and local 85.6 85. 7 87.4 90.7 93.1 95.5 99.0 100.0 101. 7 108.4 116.9 77.3 80. 1 81. 9 85.3 89.4 93.6 96.6 100.0 108.0 124.0 133.6 74. 3 76. 5 78.8 82.0 86.1 90.5 95.8 100.0 104.6 112.7 121.5 74. 5 76.8 79.3 82.6 86.6 91.3 96.4 100.0 104. 0 116.0 132.3 72.3 74.6 77.0 80.7 87.7 90.6 94. 9 100. 0 110. 6 122. 1 133.3 80.5 82.8 84.0 85.3 87.9 93. 1 96.6 100.0 116.0 147.8 163.2 78.0 79.7 80.1 80.9 83.3 89. 1 93. 5 100.0 117.1 168.6 188.3 67.0 70.1 72.6 7&4 80.0 86.4 92.6 100.0 106.1 117.6 130. 6 58 28 70 45 111. 8 115.0 118.3 121. 3 103.2 106.6 110.4 114.0 118.2 122.4 126.0 129. 5 108.9 111.3 114.2 116.4 108. 5 112.9 118. 5 125.0 117.4 120. 7 124.9 126.7 135. 6 142.3 153.4 160.4 147. 9 163.4 177.7 185.6 112. 1 114.9 118.6 124.8 113.8 117.1 121.0 123.6 123. 74 125. 04 127. 21 129. 33 123. 1 124.4 126.7 128.4 114.3 116.3 117.4 119.4 131.0 131.9 135.2 136.4 119. 0 120.2 122.2 124.4 129.6 131.8 132.6 135.3 131.6 132.3 132. 5 136. 1 163.5 162.0 163.6 163.5 189. 1 187.8 187.8 188.2 12&9 127.3 125. 1 126.4 128.2 129.8 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Expor ts and Governnaent purimports of goods chases <}f goods and s(^rvices and scjrvices 77.1 79.3 81.3 846 88.5 92.5 96.6 100.0 105. 5 116.6 125.7 111. 114. „_._ 117. 121. 1975:1 II III Gross private dom estic inves }ment 130.9 135.3 65.1 68.4 72.5 76.9 81.9 88.3 94.5 100.0 107.5 na9 127.4 CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross national product Period 1965, 1966 1967___ 1968 1969_ 1970 . 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975_ 1974: I II III — — — - - rv 1975: I • II III ' Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars .__ • • iv_ .. Implicit price deflator 5.9 5.9 2.7 4.4 2.6 -.3 3.0 5.7 5.3 -1.8 -2.0 -3.9 -3.7 -2.3 _7.5 -9.2 3.3 12.0 5.0 8.2 9.4 5.8 9.1 7.7 5.0 8.2 10.1 11.5 7.7 6.5 5. 5 6. 0 9.9 48 -2. 1 7.7 19.9 12.1 Gross domestic product Fixedweighted price index (1967 weights) Chain price index 2.2 3.3 2.9 4.5 5.0 5.4 5.1 4.1 5.9 9.7 8.8 9.8 10.0 12.5 13.4 7.8 4.3 7.1 6.8 1.9 3. 1 3.0 4.4 5.0 5.3 5.0 4.1 6.0 9.7 8.8 10.0 10.6 13.3 12.5 8.2 4.3 7.3 6.9 NOTE, — Annual changes from prev .ous year an 1 quarterly cjhanges from previous quarter. 1.8 2.9 3.0 4.3 5.0 5.2 4.9 4.0 6.0 9.7 8.8 9.8 10.6 13.0 12.5 7.8 4.4 7.3 7.2 Constant (1972 dollars) Current dollars Implicit price deflator 5.9 6.1 2.7 44 2.6 -.3 2.8 5.8 5.3 — 1.8 — 1.9 -49 -2.0 -2.4 -7.8 -8.5 3.2 11.7 5.2 8.2 9.6 5.7 9.1 7.8 5.0 8. 1 10. 1 11.4 7.3 6.9 3.4 7.6 9.5 46 -.7 7.7 19.6 12.5 2.2 3.3 3.0 4.5 5. 1 5.3 5. 1 41 5.8 9.3 8.9 8.7 9.8 12.2 13.5 8.5 43 7. 1 7.0 Chain price index 1.9 3. 1 3.1 44 5.0 5.3 5.0 41 5.9 9.3 8.8 9.3 9.9 13.0 12.5 8.3 43 7.4 6.9 Fixedweighted price index (1967 weights) 1.8 3.0 3.0 44 5.0 5.2 49 40 5.9 9.4 8.8 9.2 10,1 12,7 12.5 7.9 4.5 7.4 7.2 Sc>urce: Departjnent of Comimerce, Bureau of Bconoioic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969_ 1970 1971 1972 _ _ _ _ _ 1973 1974 1975" 1974: I II- — III.. IY___ 1975:1 !!___ III__ IV" Gross d omestic prodiict of nonfin ancial corp<?rate business (billicms of dollars) Current dollars 1972 dollars 392.1 430.7 452. 9 498.4 541. 8 560. 6 602. 5 671. 0 751. 9 808.7 8644 786. 2 806. 5 820. 3 821. 8 816.4 845. 1 886. 2 909. 9 4946 532. 9 545.8 581.6 607. 3 600. 6 619. 3 671. 0 717. 7 697.6 697.4 709.8 705. 9 697. 7 678. 3 652. 9 667. 2 693. 5 704.2 Current do lar cost a nd profit ]per unit of outpu t (dollars) i Total cost and profit 2 0. 793 .808 .830 .857 .892 .933 .973 1. 000 1. 048 1. 159 1. 272 1. 108 1. 142 1. 176 1.212 1.251 1. 267 1. 278 1. 292 Capital conComsumption penallowNet ances Indirect sation with business of incapital taxes 3 employ- terest conees sumption adjustment 0. 066 .067 .072 .074 .079 .088 . 094 .093 .096 .112 . 131 . 104 . 108 . 114 . 123 . 130 . 131 . 131 . 132 0.083 .080 .084 .089 . 094 . 103 . 110 . 110 . 112 . 123 .137 .117 . 121 . 126 . 129 . 135 . 137 .138 . 138 1 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate aslness in 1972 dollars. 8 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinaneial corporate business with the decimal point shifted 2 places to the left. 8 Also includes transfer payments less subsidies. Corpc rate profits with invent*sry valua }ion and capit,al consuniption £idjustmen ts Total 0.497 0. 012 0. 134 . 513 .014 . 134 . 535 . 016 . 123 .553 . 124 .017 . 022 . 109 .589 .628 .086 .028 .645 . 029 .095 . 661 . 028 . 107 . 700 .034 . 106 . 788 .045 . 091 .837 .050 . 117 .041 .749 .096 .772 . 044 . 097 .801 . 047 . 088 .829 . 050 .081 .051 .085 .849 .835 .050 . 113 .826 . 050 . 134 . 132 .839 . 051 4 Profits tax liability 0. 055 . 055 . 051 .058 . 055 . 045 .048 .050 .055 .061 .053 . 056 .061 . 070 .058 . 042 .048 .060 .062 Profits after4 tax 0.079 . 078 . 072 .066 . 055 . 041 .046 .057 .051 .029 . 063 . 040 .037 .018 .023 . 043 .065 .074 .070 ComOutput penper sation hour per of all hour employ- of all ees employ(1972 ees dollars) (dollars) 8. 7314 8. 4978 8. 8. 5700 8. 5612 8. 8. 4104 8. 4526 8. 7595 9. 0101 6. 1096 6. 7. 3764 6. 4221 6. 6070 6. 781.3 6. 9722 7. 1785 7. 3113 7. 4412 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of I*abor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] National income Period 566.0 1965 622.2 1966 _ 1967 .... 655.8 714.4 1968 767.9 1969 798.4 1970 858. 1 1971... 951.9 1972 1, 067. 3 1973., 1, 141. 1 1974__ 1, 208. 1 1975* 1, 122. 3 1974: I, 1, 129. 6 II 1, 151. 3 III. 1, 161. 3 IV 1, 155. 2 1975: I1, 180. 8 II Ill IV* ... 1, 232. 5 1, 264. 0 Compensation of employees l 396.5 439.3 471. 9 519.8 571.4 609.2 650. 3 715. 1 797. 7 873. 0 921.4 843.9 863. 9 886.3 898. 1 897.1 905.4 928.2 955. 1 Propri etors' meom<3 with inventor y valuation anc capital eonsuEaption adjust ments Farm 12.6 13.6 12. 1 12. 0 13.9 13. 9 14.3 18.0 32.4 25. 6 24.6 33. 7 22.3 21.9 24. 6 21.0 20. 1 29.3 28.2 Nonfarm 44.1 46.7 48.9 51.4 52.3 51.2 53.4 58. 1 59.3 59. 5 58.7 59.3 59.5 60.2 59.0 58. 6 58.5 58. 7 58.9 Rental with capital consumption adjustment 17.1 18.2 19.4 18.6 18. 1 18. 6 20. 1 21. 5 21.3 21.0 21. 1 21. 1 21. 0 20.9 20.9 20.8 20. 5 20.9 22.0 Corpor ate profits with inv«sntory val uatioa and capital co nsumptioii adjustm 3nts Profits with invcintory valuat ion adjuslbment and iwithout ca pital consum 3tion adjiistment Total Total 77.1 82.5 79.3 85.8 81.4 67.9 77.2 92. 1 100.2 91.3 100.7 99.6 94.3 89.2 82. 0 78. 9 96. 6 113. 1 114. 1 73.3 78.6 75.6 82. 1 77.9 66.4 76. 9 89.6 98.6 93. 6 106.3 100.3 96. 0 92.0 86. 1 83.4 101. 6 119. 6 120.7 Profits before tax 75.2 80,7 77.3 85.6 83.4 71. 5 82. 0 96.2 117.0 132.1 117.1 128. 3 129. 6 146. 7 123.9 97. 1 108. 2 129. 5 133.8 Inventory valua- Capital Net coninterest sumption adjustment adjustment — 1.9 -2. 1 — 1.7 — 3.4 — 5.5 — 5. 1 -5.0 -6.6 -18.4 — 38. 5 -10.8 -28. 0 -33.7 -54. 7 -37.7 -13. 7 — 6. 6 -9.9 -13.1 3. 8 3.9 3.7 3.7 3. 5 1. 5 .3 2,5 1.6 — 2.3 -5.7 fj -1.7 -2,7 —4.2 — 4. 5 -5.0 -6.5 -6.6 18.5 21.9 24.3 26.8 30.8 37.5 42.8 47.0 56.3 70.7 81.6 64,8 68.7 72.7 76.7 78.7 79.7 82.2 85.7 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau ol Economic Analysis. * Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars except as noted; all quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1965. 1966.. 1967. 1968___ 19691970 1971.. 1972 1973__ 1974_._ 19751974:1 II Ill IV 1975:1 II III. IV 1 Total personal con- sumption Total expendidurable tures goods l 430. 2 464.8 490.4 535. 9 579. 7 618.8 668.2 733.0 808.5 885. 9 963.8 849. 5 877. 8 907.7 908.4 926. 4 950. 3 977.4 1, 001. 0 62.8 67. 7 69. 6 80.0 85. 5 84.9 97. 1 111.2 122.9 121.9 128. 1 118. 4 123. 1 128. 9 117. 3 118.9 123.8 131.8 137.6 Motor vehicles and parts 29.8 30. 1 29.7 35. 8 37.7 34.9 43.8 50.6 54.4 48.0 49.5 46. 1 48. 7 53. 5 43.6 44.6 46. 1 52.1 55. 1 Total includes an "all other" group not shown separately. Retail sales of new passenger cars (nlilliona of uiaits) Nondura sle goods D urable goo ds Furniture and household equipment 24.7 27. 7 29. 5 32.6 35.0 36.7 39.4 44. 8 50. 7 54. 7 57.4 53.4 55.0 55.9 54. 3 54.1 57.0 58.3 60.4 Total nondurable goods l 188.6 204. 7 212. 6 230.4 247.0 264. 7 277.7 299. 3 334.4 375, 7 409.8 359.8 371.9 383. 9 387. 1 394. 1 404.8 416.4 423. 7 Food and beverages 98.9 106. 6 109. 6 118. 3 126. 1 136. 3 140. 6 150.4 168. 0 189.4 209. 1 181.3 185.4 193. 2 197.4 202. 8 206.6 211.4 215.6 Services Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil 33. 5 36. 6 38.2 41. 8 45. 1 46. 6 50. 5 55. 1 61.4 65. 2 69. 9 64.3 65. 3 66. 5 64. 8 66.7 69.0 71.3 72. 5 14. 7 16.0 17.0 18.4 20.4 22.0 23.4 24.9 28.3 36. 4 40.3 31.7 37. 1 38,2 38. 8 38. 1 39.6 41.2 42. 1 Do- mestics 178.7 192.4 208. 1 225. 6 247. 2 269. 1 293.4 322.4 351.3 388.3 426.0 371. 2 382. 8 394. 9 404. 0 413.4 421. 6 429. 2 439. 7 8.8 8.4 7.6 8.6 8.5 7. 1 8. 7 9. 3 9. 7 7. 5 7.1 7. 9 7.8 8.3 5.8 6.7 6.3 7.5 7.7 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Imports 0.7 .8 1. 0 1. 1 1. 3 1. 6 1. 6 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.3 1. 7 1.6 1.7 1.4 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $12.9 billion in February, following a revised increase of $14.8 billion in January. Wage and salary disbursements were up $5.3 billion or about one-half as much as in January. Transfer payments rose$5.5 billion, largely because of special factors. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 11,400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS MOO SEASONAllY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1,200 1,200 TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME 1,000 800 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 600 400 400 OTHER INCOME 200 200 TRANSFER PAYMENTS 1 1 1 1 1I 1 t t ) 1 1968 t !t 1 ! f t 1| ) 1970 1969 \\\\ \\\\\ 1 1 I ! 1 It f f I 1 1971 t i It 1 ! } 1 ! 1t 1974 1973 1972 1975 1976 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Wage Propriet<3rs' income3 Rental Other Total and income labor personal salary of income disburse- income12 Farm Nonfarm persons 4 ments 1 685.2 1968. 1969 _ 745.8 1970 801. 3 859. 1 1971 _ 1972 942.5 1, 054. 3 1973 1974_ 1, 154. 7 1975 1, 245. 9 1, 203. 2 1975: Feb Mar.... 1, 205. 0 1, 209. 0 Apr May... 1, 217. 2 1, 245. 2 June 1, 244. 0 July 1, 262. 4 Aug 1, 278. 7 Sept 1, 287. 4 Oct Nov.... 1, 295. 9 Dec 1, 300. 2 1, 315. 0 1976: Jan Feb'— 1, 327. 9 469. 5 514.6 546. 5 579.4 633.8 701.0 763.6 801.6 779. 1 781. 7 782.7 787.4 792.7 797.4 808.8 815.6 824. 1 831.2 836.8 847.8 853. 1 25. 1 28.2 32.0 36.2 42.0 47.5 54.5 61.3 59.0 59.4 59.8 60.3 60.8 61.4 62.0 62.6 63.2 63.8 64.4 65. 1 65.8 12.0 13.9 13.9 14.3 18.0 32.4 25.6 24.6 21.0 17.9 18.5 20. 1 21.7 25.8 29.3 32.7 30.5 28.3 25.8 25.3 24.7 51.4 52.3 51.2 53.4 58. 1 59.3 59. 5 58.7 58.5 58.6 58. 5 58.6 58.6 58. 7 58.7 58.8 58.9 58.8 58.9 59. 1 59. 6 i* The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs mm compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employers eontribuons for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. * Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workmen's compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items. * With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 18.6 18.1 18.6 20. 1 21.5 21.3 21.0 21. 1 20.8 20.8 20.7 20.5 20.2 20.5 21.0 21. 3 21.8 22. 0 22.2 22.5 22. 7 Dividends 21.9 22.6 22.9 23.0 24.6 27.8 31.1 32.8 32.1 32. 1 32.4 32. 6 32.9 33.2 33. 5 33. 9 33.8 33. 8 31. 7 33.4 33.5 Personal Transfer payinterest income ments8 49.6 55.9 64.3 69.3 74.6 88.4 106. 5 120.5 116.0 116.1 116.6 117.5 118.6 119.7 121.2 122.9 125, 1 127.9 129. 0 130.4 131.8 59.9 66,5 79.9 94.1 104. 1 118.6 140.4 175.0 165.4 167.2 168.6 169.3 189.0 176.8 178.1 181.3 180.6 181.4 182.9 184.7 190.2 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance Nonfarm personal income 8 22.8 26.3 667.5 725.8 30.8 34.2 42.2 47.4 49.8 4&8 48. 9 48.9 49. 1 49.3 49.5 50.0 50.4 50.7 51.2 51.6 838.0 2ao 5as 53.4 780. 7 917.3 1, 013. 5 1, 119. 1 1, 210. 2 1, 171. 3 1, 176. 2 1, 179. 7 1, 186. 2 1, 212. 5 1, 207. 2 1, 222. 1 1, 234 8 1, 245. 6 1, 256. 3 1, 262. 9 1, 278. 0 1, 291. 4 *5 With capital consumption adjustment. Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. • Personal income exclusive of net Income of unincorporated farm enterprises, farm wages, and agricultural net interest. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable income rose 0.7 percent in 1975, with a 4.9 percent annual rate of increase from the first to the fourth quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS WLUONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 2,500 2,500 1968 1975 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE i ! Period Less: Personal Pertax sonal and income nontax payments COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS Equals: Disposable personal income Less: Personal outlays 1 Per cai)ita disposable income Equals : Personal saving Current dollars 1972 dollars Per caj>ita per- Percent Saving sonal c<^nsump- change real as pertion exp enditures inper cent of Population capita disposable (thou-2 dispospersands) able 1972 Current sonal perdollars dollars sonal income income Billions of d ollars 1967 626.6 1968 685.2 1969 745.8 1970 801.3 1971 859. 1 1972 942. 5 1973 1, 054. 3 1974____._ 1, 154. 7 1975 1, 245. 9 1976 82. 1 544.5 97.1 588. 1 115. 4 630.4 115.3 685. 9 742. 8 116. 3 141.2 801. 3 151. 2 903. 1 171.2 983.6 169.2 1, 076. 7 Dol Lars 503.7 550. 1 595. 3 635.4 685. 5 751.9 830.4 909. 5 987.8 40.9 38. 1 35. 1 50.6 57.3 49. 4 72. 7 74. 0 88.9 2, 740 2,930 3, 111 3,348 3,588 3,837 4,292 4, 642 5, 040 3,371 3,464 3,515 3,619 3,714 3,837 4,068 3,981 4,010 2, 468 2,670 2,860 3,020 3,227 3, 510 3, 843 4, 181 4, 512 3,035 3, 156 3,234 3,265 3,342 3,510 3,642 3,586 3,590 3.0 2.8 1.5 3.0 2.6 3.3 6.0 -2. 1 .7 7.5 6.5 5.6 7.4 7.7 6.2 8.0 4,019 4, 147 4,279 4,273 4,350 4,454 4, 569 4,670 3, 596 3,605 3, 617 3, 523 3,533 3, 581 3,607 3,636 -5. 5 8. 5 6. 9 7. 5 8.3 198, 200, 202, 204, 207, 208, 210, 211, 213, 712 706 677 878 053 846 410 894 631 Seasonally adt usted ann ual rates 1974: !____ 1, 115. 9 162. 1 II— 1, 136. 6 168.4 III__ 1, 171. 6 175. 3 IV. _ 1, 194. 8 178. 9 1975 :!____ 1, 203. 6 179. 6 !!___ 1, 223. 8 142. 1 Ill— 1, 261. 7 174, 6 IV... 1, 294. 5 180.5 1 872. 6 953.8 968.2 901.4 996. 3 931. 7 1, 015. 9 932.4 1, 024. 0 950.4 1, 081. 7 974.2 1, 087. 1 1, 001. 3 1, 114. 0 1, 025. 4 81.2 66.8 64. 6 83. 6 73. 6 107. 5 85. 9 88.6 4,513 4, 574 4,697 4, 779 4,808 5,070 5,083 5,197 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to8business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are for July 1; quarterly data are for middle of period, interpolated from monthly data. 4,037 3,976 3, 969 3, 940 3,905 4,077 4,012 4, 047 -5.9 -.7 -2.9 -3.5 18.8 -6.2 3.5 6.5 8.2 7.2 9.9 7.9 7.9 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 211, 362 211, 699 212, 123 212, 585 212, 962 213, 362 213, 897 214, 339 FARM INCOME Farm income including inventory change declined $1.6 billion (annual rate) in the fourth quarter, according to revised estimates. Excluding inventory change the decline was $4.1 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 120 1120 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 100 100 "REALIZED GROSS FARM INCOME SO 80 60 40' 40 NET FARM INCOME INCLUDING NET INVENTORY CHANGE 20 20 J 1969 1970 L T I I J 1973 1972 1971 I 1974 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1975 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVJSHS SOURC& DEPARTMENT OF AGRICUlTURf Period f [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Persona 1 incomereceived Income re eeived frc>m f armin g by total farm population Realiz ed gross Net inc ome per Net to farm farm incl tiding net3 oper ators Casli receipts from inventory change imarketing•s From From From Produc- Exclud- Includall farm nonfann Total1 tion ex- ing net ing net Livesources sources sources penses inven- inven- Current 1967 4 stock Total Crops and tory tory 2 dollars dollars change change products Dollars Billioiis of dolla rs 23. 9 11.3 12.7 3,858 51.7 44.2 12.2 4,013 25. 5 12.3 18.7 39.5 26.6 12.9 13,7 4, 372 56. 3 4,766 28. 6 48. 2 14.2 14.3 19.6 42. 1 27. 1 13.0 14,2 4, 202 58.6 4,790 14.2 14.2 50. 5 21. 0 29. 5 44,4 13.4 28. 5 15.0 4,227 60.6 5,030 13.2 30.6 22. 3 52.9 14.6 47.4 34. 1 17.4 16. 7 6,504 70. 1 5,245 35.7 18.7 61. 2 25.5 17. 8 52.3 48. 4 29. 1 19. 2 11, 825 95.3 41. 1 8,569 86.9 45. 8 33. 6 30. 0 65. 3 21. 2 44. 8 23. 6 101. 1 5, 844 41. 4 52. 1 9,409 93. 5 28. 2 26. 6 72. 9 22. 2 23.3 45.5 5,232 99. 2 9, 260 90. 6 43. 3 23.7 26. 0 47.3 75. 5 1974: I II III_»_ 105.8 97. 6 99. 2 101. 9 98.4 90. 1 91.5 94 1 46. 2 40.7 39. 3 39. 5 52. 2 49. 4 52.2 54. 6 72. 2 72.7 73.3 73.5 33. 6 24. 9 25. 9 28. 4 34.7 23. 3 22.8 25. 5 12, 260 8,230 8,060 9,010 8, 010 5, 180 4,910 5,300 1975: I II.— III___ 91. 1 101. 1 104. 1 100.4 82.7 92.6 95. 4 91.6 38. 4 42. 5 44. 5 47.8 44. 3 50. 1 50. 9 43. 8 73.5 74. 9 76. 5 76.9 17.6 26.2 27. 6 23. 5 17.1 27.2 30. 6 29. 0 6,090 9,680 10, 900 10, 330 3,500 5,530 6,090 5,710 rv... IV i * Cash receipts from marketings, Government payments, and nonmoney infeoine furnished by farms. 2 Inventory of crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year. s Based on Census of Agriculture definition of a farm. The mimber of farms is held constant within a year. 68-661 ° — 76-2 4 Income in current dollars divided by the index of prices paid by fanners for family living items on a 1967 base. NOTE,—Series revised beginning 1961. Source: Department of Agriculture, CORPORATE PROFITS Profits before tax rose $4.3 billion (annual rate) in the fourth quarter, according to preliminary estimates, but profits with inventory valuation adjustment rose $1.1 billion. BttJJONSOF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 1968 1976 somee, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975* 1974: I_ II III IV 1975: I II_ Ill IV* [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally Profit & (before tax) wit!i inventc >ry valueition adjustn lent 1 Domesstic indu stries N onfinanc tal 8 Total FinanWholeManu- sale Total cial 3 facTotal and turretail mg trade 62. 5 73.3 70.1 7.5 38.3 7.9 67.4 75.9 78.6 8. 5 41. 6 8.0 75.6 72.6 9.0 63.6 37.9 8.9 82. 1 78.9 10.4 68.5 41. 2 10. 1 74.2 77.9 62.9 11.3 36.8 10. 1 66.4 62.6 12. 6 50. 1 27. 1 9.4 72.4 58.2 14. 1 32. 4 _ 76.9 11.7 84. 7 _ 15.4 69.3 89. 6 40. 6 13. 3 17.4 74. 3 98.6 91. 7 43. 8 14.4 82. 5 17.3 65.3 93.6 37. 4 13. 4 100.4 16.2 84.2 106.3 45.8 17.2 100.3 85.9 68. 7 40. 9 14. 6 87.2 17. 1 70. 2 96. 0 39. 8 15. 5 82. 0 92.0 18. 3 63. 7 37. 0 11. 7 75. 1 _._ 16. 5 58.6 31. 9 86. 1 11.9 83.4 77.6 18.3 59.3 30. 0 16.3 95.7 80.2 101. 6 15. 5 43. 5 21.0 113.4 14.9 119. 6 98.6 54.6 25.1 98.9 115.0 120. 7 16. 1 1 See p. 3 tor profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjust merits. 28 Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. Includes industries not shown separately. 8 COUNCIt Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS adjusted annual rates] Pro fits after tax ! TT Profits before tax Tax liability Total Dividends Undistributed profits 75.2 80.7 77. 3 85. 6 83.4 71.5 82.0 96. 2 117. 0 132. 1 117. 1 128.3 129. 6 146. 7 123. 9 97. 1 108.2 129.5 133.8 30.9 33.7 32. 5 39.4 39. 7 34. 5 37. 7 41. 5 48.2 52. 6 45.7 49.4 52.6 59. 3 49.2 37.5 41.6 50.7 53.2 44.3 47. 1 44. 9 46. 2 43.8 37.0 44. 3 54. 6 68.8 79.5 71.4 78. 9 77. 1 87.4 74.7 59. 6 66. 6 78.8 80.6 19. 1 19.4 20. 1 21. 9 22. 6 22. 9 23. 0 24. 6 27.8 31. 1 32. 8 30. 0 30. 9 31.7 31.7 32. 1 32. 6 33.5 33. 1 25. 2 27. 6 24.7 24.2 21.2 14. 1 21. 3 30. 0 40.9 48.4 38.6 48.9 46.2 55.7 43.0 27. 5 34.0 45. 3 47.5 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Inventory valuation adjustment — 1.9 -2.1 -1.7 -3.4 -5.5 — 5. 1 -5.0 -6.6 -18.4 -38. 5 -10.8 —28. 0 — 33.7 -54.7 -37.7 -13. 7 -6.6 -9.9 -13.1 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT Business fixed investment, after leveling off in the third quarter, rose $5.2 billion (annual rate) in the fourth quarter. Residential outlays increased $5.0 billion, about the same as in the third quarter. Inventory investment was approximately unchanged. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 120 NONRESIDENTIAL FIXH) INVESTMENT KLUONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 300 ' GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 100 260 220 80 PRODUCERS' DURABLE EQUIPMENT 180 60 140 " \ STRUCTURES ! I ! » "I 40 ,! I I \ \ 1 I t t BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 80 I RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT -40 40 1972 I 1972 1976 1973 1975 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE, DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE 1976 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Noiiresidential fixed investmcsnt Gross private domes- Period tic investment Struc tures Total Total 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970__ 1971 1972 1973_. 1974 19751974: I II III IV 1975: I II III IV .„ .._ 112.0 124. 5 120.8 131. 5 146.2 140.8 160. 0 188.3 220.5 212.2 182.6 218.4 212. 7 207.6 210.3 16S. 7 161.4 194.9 205.4 71.3 81.4 82. 1 89. 3 98.9 100. 5 104. 1 116. 8 136. 5 147.9 148. 5 145. 9 146. 6 148. 1 151. 1 149. 3 146. 1 146. 7 151.9 26. 1 29.2 29. 5 31. 6 35. 7 37.7 39.3 42. 5 49.0 54.4 52. 7 53. 4 54. 1 54.0 56. 1 54.9 51. 1 51.2 53.6 Non- farm Total 25. 1 28. 1 28. 2 30.4 34. 3 36. 1 37. 8 41. 1 46. 8 52. 1 50. 5 51. 1 51. 8 51. 7 53. 7 52. 6 48. 8 49.0 51.5 45.1 52. 2 52. 6 57.7 63.3 62. 8 64. 7 74, 3 87. 5 93. 5 95.8 92. 5 92. 4 94. 1 95.0 94. 4 95.0 95. 6 98.3 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Prodijeers' dur able equip ment Resid ential fix ed inves fcment PTV\ Non- Total Non- farm structures farm 41.2 47.9 48.0 53.4 58.9 58. 1 59. 9 69. 1 80. 7 86.0 88. 2 85. 6 85. 0 86.6 86.7 86. 7 87.2 88.6 90.4 31.2 28.7 28.6 34.5 37.9 36. 6 49.6 62.0 66. 5 54.6 48. 7 57. 6 56.9 55. 0 48.7 44.2 45.0 50.4 55.4 29.9 27.4 27.2 33. 1 36.3 35. 1 47. 9 60.3 64.7 52.2 46.8 55.3 54. 6 52.7 46.3 42. 6 43.1 48.2 53.3 Farm ducers' durstrucable tures equipment 0.6 .7 .7 .6 .7 .6 .7 .7 .6 1.0 .6 1.0 .9 .9 1.2 .4 .5 .8 .7 0.7 .7 .7 .8 .9 .9 1.0 1. 1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 Change in business mv entories Total 9.5 14.3 10.1 7.7 9.4 3.8 6.4 9.4 17.5 9.7 -14.6 14,9 9.3 4.4 10.4 -24.8 -29.6 — 2. 1 -2.0 Nonfarm 8.5 14.5 9.4 7.6 9.2 3. 7 5. 1 8.8 14.1 11.6 -16.5 14. 1 11.0 7.6 13. 7 -23. 3 -29. 6 — 5. 7 -7.5 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Business plans to increase capital spending 6% percent in 1976, according to the survey conducted in late January and February. In early December, the expected increase was 5% percent. BILUONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 180 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 180 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 160 160 140 140 120 120 100 100 TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT 80 80 60 \ 40 MANUFACTURING V 20 I t;. I f 1968 I L. J I L. J 1970 1969 1 L J 1971 t I J 1972 1973 TI 1975 1974 t I L 20 1976 J/'SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW. SOURC& DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Starts <yi plant and eqilipment proj<JCtS 3 E:s:penditur(3s for plarit and equlipment M anufaetur ing Period N onmanuf acturing Total Durable goods 75.56 79. 71 81.21 88.44 99. 74 112. 40 _ _ _ _ 112. 79 ISO. 06 31.68 31. 95 29.99 31. 35 38. 01 46. 01 47. 95 51.85 15.96 15.80 14. 15 15. 64 19. 25 22. 62 21.84 22.93 15. 72 16. 15 15. 84 15. 72 18. 76 23. 39 26. 11 28.92 43.88 47. 76 51.22 57.09 61. 73 66.39 64,82 68.21 1975: ! _ _ _ _ 114. 57 II 112. 46 III 112. 16 I V _ _ _ . 111.80 49. 05 48. 78 47. 39 46.82 22. 86 22. 59 21. 01 21.07 26. 20 26. 19 26. 38 25.75 1976: I 4 _ _ _ _ _ 118. 70 !!*____ 119. 62 2nd 4 half . 120. 99 50.24 51. 45 99 O& Q$> &&, 22. 74 52. 71 2S. SO Total i 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 4 1976 1 Nondurable goods Total Communication Commercial 2.16 2.42 2.74 3. 18 3.79 3.88 6.05 6.04 4.93 5. 72 6. 03 6.66 7.57 6. 23 11.61 13. 14 15. 30 17. 00 18. 71 20. 55 20. 14 23.24 8.30 10. 10 10. 77 11.89 12.85 13.96 12.74 13.56 and other 2 16.05 16.59 18.05 20. 07 21. 40 22. 05 20.60 21.30 65. 52 63.68 64. 76 64.98 3. 76 3. 78 3.82 3.82 7. 30 7. 05 7. 86 7. 60 20. 28 19. 52 19. 79 20.61 13.36 12. 50 12. 95 12.22 20. 82 20. 83 20. 34 20.44 27.92 28. 72 68.47 68. 17 3. 70 3. 78 7. 17 6.41 23. 21 23. 17 34. 39 34. 81 29.41 68.28 4.02 5.86 23.27 35. 12 Excludes agricultural business; real estate operators; medical, legal, educational , and cultural service; and nonprofit organizations. These figures do not agree precisely with the nonresidential fixed investment data in gross national product estimates, mainly because these data include investment by farmers, professionals, institutions, and real estate firms, and certain outlays charged to current account. 2 Includes trade, service, construction, finance, and insurance, a Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during 10 Trans- Public Mining porta- utilition ties 1.86 L89 Manufacturing Public utilities 34.07 29. 18 28.00 35. 21 47.57 52.49 48.24 15. 16 17. 20 22.22 28. 60 38. 13 45. 74 34.50 12. 12 12. 80 11. 29 12. 16 5. 34 9. 19 14.82 5.84 given period. * Expenditures estimates based on expected capital expenditures as reported bybusiness in late January and February 1976. NOTE.—Annual total is the sum of unadjusted quarterly totals. Estimates (as noted in footnote 4) include adjustments when necessary for sys tematic biases in expectations data. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT,AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE Seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment increased by nearly 300,000 in February, more than offsetting a decline in farm employment. Total civilian employment was 86.3 million, an increase of 2.2 million since March 1975. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 100 MILLIONS OF PERSONS 100 90 90 t i I t i 1.1.1 i t t n 1 i M ii ' ._LJ.JJ_..I 1 t 19.69 1968 1970 1971 1973 1972 T975 1974 *16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF IABOR Period 1971 1972* 1973* 1974 1975 1975: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1976: Jan Feb 7976 COUNOt Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS 4,993 4,840 4,304 5, 076 7, 830 79, 120 81, 702 84, 409 85, 936 84, 783 Civilian Unememploy- ployment ment 142, 596 145, 775 148, 263 150, 827 153, 449 79, 120 81, 702 84, 409 85, 936 84, 783 Uinadjusted Unempl<3yment Civilian eiinploymei]it Total labor force Civilian (includ- labor ing force Armed Forces) 86, 929 84, 113 88, 991 86, 542 •91, 040 88, 714 93, 240 91, Oil 94, 793 92, 613 Noninstitutional population Total Nonagricultural AgriPart-time ecoculTotal for nomic 1 tural reasons 3, 387 75, 732 2, 440 3, 472 78, 230 2,408 3,452 80, 957 2,311 3,492 82, 443 2,709 3,380 81, 403 3,490 Seasc>nally adj usted 15 Labor force participation rate (percent) 2 Total weeks and over 4,993 4,840 4,304 5,076 7,830 1,182 1,158 812 937 2,483 61.0 61.0 61.4 61.8 61.8. 152, 445 152, 646 152, 840 153, 051 153, 278 153, 585 153, 824 154, 052 154, 256 154, 476 154, 700 82, 604 83, 036 83, 549 84, 146 85, 444 86, 650 86, 612 85, 274 86, 023 85, 556 85, 536 8,309 8,359 7,820 7, 623 8,569 8,209 7, 696 7, 522 7,244 7,231 7, 195 93, 721 94, 078 94, 449 94, 950 94, 747 95, 249 95, 397 95, 298 95, 377 95, 272 95, 286 91, 523 91, 880 92, 254 92, 769 92, 569 93, 063 93, 212 93, 128 93, 213 93, 117 93, 129 84, 163 84, 110 84, 313 84, 519 84, 498 84, 967 85, 288 85, 158 85, 151 85, 178 85, 394 3,252 3, 268 3,301 3,528 3,350 3,439 3,464 3,512 3,408 3,301 3,236 80, 911 80, 842 81, 012 80, 991 81, 148 81, 528 81, 824 81, 646 81, 743 81, 877 82, 158 3,627 3,799 3,803 3,750 3,422 3,277 3,234 3, 291 3,361 3,353 3,243 7,360 7,770 7,941 8,250 8,071 8,096 7,924 7,970 8,062 7,939 7,735 1,828 1,978 2,278 2,529 2, 751 2,954 2,878 2,934 2, 719 3,004 3,080 61.5 61. 6 61.8 62.0 61.8 62.0 62.0 61.9 61.8 61.7 61.6 154, 915 155, 106 84, 491 84, 764 8, 174 8,033 95, 624 95, 601 93, 484 93, 455 86, 194 86, 319 3,343 3,170 82, 851 83, 149 3,482 3,262 7,290 7,136 2,785 2,515 61.7 61.6 *Data beginning January 1972 not strictly comparable with prior data because adjustment to 1970 Census data, which added about 800,000 to the civilian ininstitutional population, 333,000 to the civilian labor force, and 301,000 to civilian employment. A further adjustment in March 1973 added 60,000 to the labor force and to employment. 1 Persons at work in nonagricultural industries, 3 Totallabor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of age and over. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistic* 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 7.6 percent in February. In the last 4 months the unemployment rate has declined sharply overall and (or nearly all demographic groups. •PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 20 20 15 15 ,_/*•* V r' ."., V/s>*& j I TEEMAGERS / ^/ (16-19J V| \ /¥ «- ^ f %*%*/% NEGRO AND OTHER ,1 RACES \/ 10 10 WOMEN 20 YEARS .AND OVER ^ Mt^^LLJ. ^•"V y /^ ««• *^^* **—^^^ MEN 20 YEARS AND OVER 1 1 1 1 1 1 i f 1 1 1 I 1 I 1 I 1 1 1.1 ! 1 1 1 i ( r f 1 1 1 1 1 1972 1974 1975 1976 1973 1972 1?74 *UN8mOyMeMrMKBC^ SOURCE, Minium 1975 II II l! II !li 1976 COUNCR, Of ECONOMIC ADYlSOtS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] linenaployme at rate (]>ercent c)f civiliaii labor f c>rce in gjroup) Total (all civilian workers) Period 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1975: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1976: Jan Feb - ... .. . . ... 5.9 5,6 4,9 5.6 8.5 8.0 8.5 ae a9 a7 8.7 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.3 7.8 7.6 By s ex and a,ge Men Women Both 20 20 sexes years years 16-19 and and years over over 4.4 4.0 3.2 3.8 6.7 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.2 7.0 7.1 6.8 7.2 7.2 7. 1 6.6 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.4 4.8 5. 5 8.0 7.9 8.3 8.5 8.4 8.2 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.9 7.9 8.0 7.5 7.5 16.9 16.2 14.5 16.0 19.9 19.4 20. 1 19.7 20.3 20. 7 20. 5 20. 7 19.4 19. 8 19.0 19. 6 19. 9 19.2 1 Aggregate hours tost by the unemployed and persons on part-time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. 12 I3y select ed grou|)3 By color White 5.4 ExpeNegro rienced House- Fulltime and wage hold workother and heads races salary ers workers 9.9 5. 0 4. 3 10.0 8. 1 13.9 13.3 13.8 14.1 14.2 14.0 13.4 14. 3 14.4 14.3 13.9 13.8 13.2 13.7 5.0 7.8 7.3 7.8 7.9 8.3 8.0 7.8 7.8 8.0 7.8 7.6 7. 1 6. S 8.9 9.9 5.7 5.3 4. 5 5. 3 8.2 7.7 8.2 8.6 8,9 8.6 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.3 8. 1 7.4 7.4 3.6 3.3 2.9 3.3 5.8 5.3 5.7 5.8 6. 1 6. 1 6. 1 5. 7 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.7 5. 1 4.9 5.5 5. 1 4.3 5. 1 8.1 7.6 8.0 8.3 8.5 8.4 8. 5 8. 1 8.4 8.5 8.3 7.9 7.3 7. 1 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Parttime workers 8.7 8.6 7.9 8.6 Labor force time lost (percent) * 6.4 6. f) 5,2 6. 1 10.3 10.2 10.8 10.5 10. 7 10. 1 9, 7 8. 9 10. 3 8.9 8.9 9.9 9.9 10.4 10.2 10.5 10.5 10.4 9.1 8.7 9.3 9.4 9. 1 9. 4 9. 3 8.9 8.4 ai SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSU ANCE PROGRAMS in February, 49.1 percent of the unemployed were job losers, persons unemployed because of a layoff or a d charge. The decline in this proportion from 57.4 percent in the third quarter of 1975 reflects a decrease in layoffs. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 20 1976 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LASOt TTnem*" Period 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1975: Jan.. Feb.. MarApr — May. June. July_. Aug.. Sept. Oct.. Nov.. Dee.. 976: Jan*_ 1 Feb »_ ment (thousands) 4,993 4,840 4,304 5,076 7,830 7,297 7,360 7,770 7,941 8,250 8,071 8,096 7,924 7,970 8,062 7,939 7, 735 7,290 7, 136 1 J [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Perceiit distrib ution of unemPercei it distrib ution of unem1 State p rograms Insured plo yment by durati on l unem- Special Pi oyment by reasoia unemployployment all ment 27 Insured New Less regular benefit3 Job Job Reenen- than 5 5-14 15-26 weeks unem- Initial pro- claims losers leavers trants trants and ploy- claims weeks weeks weeks over grams * (unadment (unad- justed) justed) Weejkly avei age, thousands 46.3 11.8 29.4 12.6 10.4 2, 150 44,7 31.6 13.3 295 2,608 43.2 13. 1 29.8 13.9 45.9 11.6 1,848 30. 1 12.3 261 2, 192 38.7 30. 7 15. 7 14.9 51.0 30. 1 7.8 1,632 11.0 246 1,793 43.4 14.9 28.4 13.3 50.6 7.3 2,262 31. 0 11. 1 363 2,558 55.4 10.4 23.8 10.4 15.2 3,973 37.0 31. 3 16.5 472 4,920 51.6 10.7 26.7 11.0 43.9 34.9 12.6 8.5 3,581 500 5,213 54.8 10.4 11.2 23.6 39.9 34.6 15.4 501 10. 0 3, 853 5, 751 55. 1 10.3 24. 7 9.9 41.2 33. 1 16. 1 526 9.6 4,096 5,886 604 56. 1 10.2 24. 1 9.6 37.6 33.2 17. 2 12.0 4,298 506 5,647 743 56.4 10.3 23.5 9.8 37.6 31.6 18.0 497 12.8 4,464 5,202 868 58.5 9.7 23.0 8.9 34.2 31.4 18.5 15.9 4,343 501 4,892 1,177 57.7 10.0 22. 1 10.2 36.0 26.9 20. 1 17.0 4, 187 446 4, 979 1,489 56.2 9.7 22.9 11. 1 34.1 30.3 17.7 17.9 4, 108 460 4, 576 1, 502 58.2 10.0 21.9 9.9 34.4 29.8 16. 5 19.3 4,087 454 4, 238 1, 312 56.0 10.2 23.4 10.4 36.9 29.9 15. 1 18. 1 3, 918 460 4, 039 1, 284 55.6 10.9 23. 1 10.5 32.5 30.4 15.8 21.2 3, 587 410 4, 120 1, 340 51.7 11.3 25.8 11.3 33.2 28. 1 17. 7 20.9 3,199 390 4,461 1,411 48.3 11.8 27.6 12.3 35.7 27.6 15.2 21.5 2,938 346 4,962 1,482 49. 1 12. 1 26.6 12. 1 38. 1 26.3 13.6 22. 1 2,845 322 4,771 1,428 Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding. Includes State (60 States, District of Columbia, and Puerto Eico), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (XJCFE), and railroad (KR) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include FSB (Federal Supplemental Benefits) and SUA (Special Unemployment Assistance). COWOl d KONOWC AWBBS 8 FSB and SUA. These programs started January 1975 and regular reporting began March 1975. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Nonfarm payroll employment (seasonally adjusted) increased by 200,000 in February to 78.3 million, bringing the increase since the employment trough in June 1975 to 2 million. The February increase in employment was con; centrated in the service-producing industries. MIL!LIONS OF WAGE ANI3 SALARY WORKE *S MflJLIONS OF WAGE AN > SALARY WORK RS (SEASONALLY AC JUSTED) (SEASONALLY >DJUSTED) (ENLARGED SCA LE) 80 18 —r•—Y *a^~ 76 "V x AIL MONAGRICULTURA l^*""1?— ESTABUSHMENTS 16 ^—-r\^— —, - - 1 1 WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TW^DE 72 - •^ -"" •i.. r - —---"""*"" »rf •••«•«*• 44 'T SERVICES 1 J 12 x -.—»-"* \ ** 14 - N ONMANUFACTURING 12' ^ ,.,„ (PRIVATE) •40. -' ".,ml.«.H.I'"'./mi— \ • ::3 ^J ^ 34 10 MANUFACl UR1NG - / 20 ap"""™*™""™2521- i..-.......,!...,.,,,,,,,,,^-,. -J x DURABLE MANUFACTURING •"•""*•••" NONDURAB LE MANUFAOUR NG \ —. ,„ 8 "'-•..»»B»,-.-"-1 "• „.„ .«,• plrt _ —1_ X.i.. .I""** ~. 16 ; CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION ** ^ •4 -i 12 -GOVERNMENT- >W ^ 8 ft r i r » 1 i i i ! i T 1973 ,,, , , l 1 1 ,,! f ! 1 \ \! J ) 1 I ! 1 2 t ) J \ \ \ t | | ^ !« 1775 1974 1 I_J ]_L 1 1 1 I 1 1__ 1 1 . 1775 1974 1973 1976 JOUKE. WWJtTMENT Of bUCS 1 t t I 1 1 1 1 IK 1976 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 1 [Thousands of wage and salary workers; seasonally adjusted] G oods-prc during i ndustries! Period Total nonagricultural employ- Total * ment 1971 1972. 1973. 1974 1975 1975: Jan— Feb— Mar_. Apr..May._ June— Jidy.. Aug— Sept_Oct... Nov__ Dec 1976: Jan»— Feb".. 71, 222 73, 714 76, 896 78, 413 76, 985 77, 319 76, 804 76, 468 76, 462 76, 510 76, 343 76, 679 77, 023 77, 310 77, 555 77, 574 77, 796 78, 137 78, 344 22, 820 23, 546 24, 727 24, 697 22, 549 23, 270 22, 691 22, 422 22, 328 22, 339 22, 233 22, 222 22, 418 22, 601 22, 669 22, 657 22, 743 22, 918 22, 903 Contract construction 3,639 3,831 4,015 3, 957 3,457 3,749 3,592 3, 467 3,441 3,439 3,392 3,395 3,415 3,432 3,402 3,409 3,406 3,434 3,375 Service-pr oducing Industrie;s Ma mifactur ing Finance, TransCover nment porta- Whole- insurtion sale Total ance, : Nonand and and State Total Durable durable real Services Federal and public retail goods goods utilities trade estate local 18, 572 19, 090 20, 068 20, 046 18, 347 18, 798 18, 375 18, 226 18, 155 18, 162 18, 100 18, 084 18, 254 18, 417 18, 493 18, 482 18, 568 18, 724 18, 766 10, 597 11, 006 11, 839 11,895 10, 679 11, 099 10, 813 10, 728 10, 637 10, 595 10, 527 10, 465 10, 563 10,650 10, 661 10, 653 10, 717 10, 823 10, 841 7,975 8,084 8,229 8, 151 7,668 7,699 7,562 7,498 7,518 7,567 7, 573 7,619 7,691 7,767 7,832 7,829 7,851 7,901 7,925 * Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagrieultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagrieultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they 14 48, 401 50, 167 52, 169 53, 715 54, 436 54, 049 54, 113 54, 046 54, 134 54, 171 54, 110 54, 457 54, 605 54, 709 54, 886 54, 917 55, 053 55, 219 55, 441 4,457 4,517 4,644 4, 696 4,498 4, 603 4, 565 4, 506 4, 508 4, 491 4,469 4,464 4, 466 4,467 4,476 4,496 4,477 4, 490 4,518 15, 352 15, 975 16, 674 17, 017 16, 947 16, 903 16, 879 16, 851 16, 847 16, 857 16, 877 16, 984 17, 016 17, 045 17, 043 17, 010 17, 080 17, 211 17, 308 3, 802 3,943 4, 091 4,208 4,223 4,219 4,210 4, 207 4,209 4,208 4,202 4,203 4,218 4,239 4,246 4,248 4, 264 4,269 4,268 11, 903 12, 392 13, 021 13, 617 13, 995 13, 857 13, 865 13, 864 13, 878 13, 889 13, 871 13, 990 14, 050 14, 113 14, 157 14, 188 14, 229 14, 284 14, 354 2,696 2,684 2,663 2,724 2,748 2, 734 2,733 2,733 2,731 2,732 2,738 2,745 2,756 2,765 2,767 2,761 2,755 2,746 2,750 10, 192 10, 656 11, 071 11,451 12, 025 11, 733 11, 861 11, 885 11, 961 11, 994 11, 953 12, 071 12, 099 12, 080 12, 197 12, 214 12, 248 12, 219 12, 243 are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on' reports from employing establishments. a Includes mining, not shown, separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Siatistics, AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRlCUIiTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Averag e gross hourly e:arnings Aversige weekly ] lours Period 1967 1968 1969 1970. 1971. 1972. 19731974. 1975. Manufa cturing Total private nonagricultural l . Total 38.0 37. 8 37.7 37.1 37. 0 37.1 37.1 36. 6 36. 1 40.6 40. 7 40.6 39.8 39. 9 40.6 40.7 36.2 36. 1 35.9 35. 9 35.9 36.0 36.0 36. 2 36. 1 36.2 36.3 36.4 39.2 1975: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Got Nov. Bec._^ 36.6 36.5 1976: Jan » Feb ' 40. 0 39.4 sas 38.9 39. 1 39. 0 39. 3 39.4 39. 7 39.8 39.8 39.9 40.3 40.5 40. 3 Overtime Total private nonagricultural 1 2.9 3.5 3.8 3.2 2.6 Z4 2.4 2.3 2. 3 2. 4 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 Manufacturing $2.68 2.85, 3.04 3.22 3.44 3.67 3.92 4.22 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.0: ;4 54 ^441 4.43 : Adjusted h ourly earnin gs index2 —tc>tal private nonagrioultural 4.46 4.47 . 4.49 4.51 4. 54 100,0 106.3 113.3 120,8 129. 4 137. 8 146.6 158.6 172, 7 100.0 102. 0 103.2 103. 9 106.7 110.0 110,1 107. 4 107. 1 4.65 4.68 4.72 166.3 167. 8 169. 1 169. 4 170. 6172. 2, 176. 7 178.2 178.6 106. 2 106.7 107. 1 106.8 107.0 107. 2 106.7 107. 3 107.2 107. 4 107.7 107.3 9. 5 9. 0 8. 7 . 8.8 :& 8 8. 1 179. 8 180. 7 107.6 108.0 8. 2 - • , 7. 7 4.78 4.82 4.86 4.88 4.68 4.68 4. 90 4.93 4.96 4.73 5.00 5. 02 4.75 Current dollars $2. 83 3.01 3. 19 3.36 3. 57 3. 81 4.08 4.41 4.81 4.75 4.60 4. 63 1967 dollars s Current dollars 4.73 4.57 Percent ch ange from a year isarMer * Index, 1<567=100 173. L 174,6 175. 2 .1967 dollars3 48 6.3 .6.6 1.9 2.0 1.2 6.6 ' ' .7 6.5 6.4 8.2 3. I .1 7. 1 as 9.5 9. 8 9.9 2.7 — 2. 5 -•3 -2.0-1.1 —.4 — .6 -.5-.6 —— & .1 .2 .5 1.1 8. 2 8.5 7.9 .8 1. 3 1.3 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS—PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Average gross weekly earnings Total private nonagncuItural J Period Current dollars 1967 . 1968 1969--. 1970 1971_._ _ , __ .- $101. 84 107. 73 114. 61 119. 46 1972_ _ 127. 28 136. 16 1974 154. 45 1973 1975 145. 43 . 163. 89 Manufacturing 1967 dollars 3 • Contract construction Retail trade8 : Current dollars Current dollar:3 ' $101. 84 103. 39 104. 38 102. 72 104. 93 108. 67 109. 26 104. 57 101. 67 $114.90 122. 51 129. 51 133. 73 142. 44 154. 69 166. 06 176. 40 189. 51 $154. 95 164.49 181. 54 195. 45 211. 67 222. 51 235. 69 249. 08 265. 35 Percent chiinge from a year e arlier, total pri1rate nonagriciiltural $70. 95 7495 78. 66 82.47 86.61 90.99 95.57 101. 04 108. 22 3.1 5.8 6.4 42 6.5 7.0 6.8 256. 86 250. 58 264 22 264 20 259. 54 265.35 267. 91 26a64 267. 91 272. 69 278. 26 10465 105. 30 106.28 106. 27 107. 58 107. 57 107. 55 108. 85 108.84 110. 14 110. 83 110. 81 7.9 7.1 1976: Jan" 173. 12 173. 38 103. 60 103. 63 202. 50 202. 31 282. 00 282. 73 113. 45 113. 45 R4 8.4 08-001°—70 3 3. 6 .5 -41 -4. 3 -3.8 -2. 9 182. 28 181. 58 183. 61 184. 94 185. 25 187. 85 189. 91 192. 94 194. 22 195. 02 196. 71 199. 89 1 Also includes other private Industry groups shown on p. 14. * Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts arid for overtime in manufacturing. ' Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index, 2.2 7.1 6.2 6. 1 102. 01 101. 67 101. 40 101. 12 101. 06 101. 10 100. 76 101. 62 101. 57 101. 89 102. 65 102. 37 Feb » — 1.6 -4. 3 -2. 8 159. 92 160. 11 160. 47 161. 19 162. 36 163. 44 165. 43 166. 06 167. 61 169. 88 170. 35 261. 52 0.2 1.5 1.0 6. 2 1975: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June .. . July Aug Sept -. . Oct -. Nov Dec 159. 64 1967 dollars 6. 1 7.0 5.3 5.4 5.0 5. 9 5.6 5. 8 -3. 9 -3.7 -42 - 2. 6 -2.2 -1.7 .5 .1 1.6 1.9 * Monthly changes based on indexes to 2 decimal places. ' Includes eating and drinking places. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Btatlstics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, PRIVATE ECONOMY Hours of an perssons2 Outi>ut l Period Total private Private nonfarm Total private Private nonfarm Output jer hour of all i>ersons Total private Private nonfarm Compcjnsation per ! hour 3 Total private Private nonfarm Unit labor cc>sts Total pri- vate Implic it price defla tor* Private nonfarm Total private Private nonfarm 1967 == 100; quairterly dat a seasonsilly adjuslbed 92.3 97.8 100.0 1045 107.2 92.0 97.8 100.0 104.7 107.5 97.5 99.8 100.0 101.7 1044 96.4 99,5 100.0 102.0 105.2 946 98.0 100. 0 102.7 102.7 95.4 98.3 100. 0 102.6 102.2 88.5 947 100.0 107.7 115.3 89.1 946 100.0 107.4 1146 93.5 96.7 100.0 1048 112.2 93.4 96.3 100.0 1047 112. 1 94.4 97.3 100. 0 KM. 1 109. 2 943 97.0 100.0 104 1 109. 1 106.8 110.2 117.4 124. 3 121.5 106.9 110.2 117.7 124. 7 122.0 102.8 102.4 105. 6 109. 3 109.6 1040 103.6 107.0 111.1 111.5 103.9 107.7 111.1 113. 7 110.8 102.8 106.4 110.0 112.2 109.5 123.6 132. 1 140.0 151.4 165.7 122.4 130.7 138. 8 149.6 163. 9 119.0 122.6 126.0 133.2 149.6 119. 0 122.9 126.2 133.4 149.7 114 3 119.6 123. 8 130.8 143.4 1144 119.8 123.5 128.6 141.6 1975 118.5 118.5 105.5 107. 2 112. 2 110.5 180.8 178. 6 161. 1 161.7 156.7 155.7 1973: I II III IV 123.6 123. 7 124.6 125.0 123.9 124.2 125. 3 125.3 108. 1 109, 3 110.1 110.5 109.9 111. 1 111.8 112.4 1144 113.2 113. 3 113.2 112.8 111.7 112.0 111.6 147. 6 149. 5 152.0 155.5 145.7 147.7 150.4 153.8 129.1 132.1 1342 137.4 129.1 132. 2 1342 137.8 127.2 129. 4 131.8 1346 125.9 127. 5 129. 1 132. 0 1974: I II III IV 123.3 122. 5 121.6 118.7 123. 9 123.0 122.2 119. 1 110.4 110. 3 110.0 ioa4 111.9 112. 2 112. 1 110. 3 111.7 111. 0 110, 5 109. 5 110.7 109.7 109.0 108.0 158.4 163.3 168. 3 172.2 157.0 161.5 165.9 170.2 141.8 147. 1 152. 3 157. 3 141. 9 147.2 152.2 157. 6 137. 5 141.0 145.4 150. 1 1347 139. 6 144 0 148. 6 1975: I II Ill IV 115.6 116.5 115.5 116.7 120.0 121. 7 105. 3 1046 105.3 106.6 107.2 106. 3 106.8 108. 5 109.8 111.4 1140 114 2 107. 7 109.8 112.3 112. 1 176. 6 179.3 182.3 185. 7 173. 9 176.8 180. 6 183. 4 160.9 161.0 159.8 162.6 161. 5 161.0 160.8 163. 6 153.5 155.1 157.8 160.4 152.8 154 1 156.4 159.2 2.0 3.1 2.8 41 49 1.7 2.8 49 47 3.1 42 10. 1 1965 1966 1967_ 1968 1969 - 1970 1971 1972. 1973_. 1974 -- 12ai 121; 8 Perceiat change ; quarterlyr data at seasonal] y adjuste d annual rates 6.2 5.7 7.4 6.7 48 7. 1 1. 1 3.7 3.2 2.3 —2.5 .6 3.4 3.4 2.0 —2.4 7.2 6.8 6. 0 8.1 9. 5 6.8 6.8 6.2 7.8 9. 5 6. 0 3. 1 2.7 5.7 12.3 2.7 5.7 12.2 47 46 3.5 5.6 9.7 -as 1. 3 .9 9. 1 9. 0 7.7 8. 1 9.3 9.9 5.1 45 2.8 1.6 6.1 45 2.6 1.8 47 -4 1 .3 -.3 2.8 -3.6 1. 1 -1.7 13.5 5.3 6.8 9. 4 11.4 5. 9 7. 3 9. 3 8.4 9.7 6.5 9.8 8.4 9. 9 6.2 11. 2 6.2 7. 3 7.6 8.6 42 5. 1 5. 1 9.3 —.5 -1.6 1.0 —.3 -6. 1 -5. 1 -2.4 -1.9 -3.6 -3. 1 -3.6 — 2.4 -3.8 7.8 12. 9 12.7 9.8 8.8 11.8 11.6 10. 7 13.6 15.7 148 13.9 12.3 15.9 143 15. 0 8.9 10.6 13. 1 13.8 8.5 15.2 13.2 13.4 -11.2 -2.7 2. 9 -10.9 1.0 6. 0 9. 9 .6 -.9 8.0 9.4 -.7 10.5 6.4 6.7 7.8 9. 1 6.8 8.7 6.5 9.4 .4 -2.9 7. 1 10. 1 -1. 1 -.7 7.2 9. 1 42 7.4 6.6 '11.9 3.5 6. 2 7.3 -.4 3.2 6. 5 5.9 -2.2 -.5 3. 1 6.8 5.9 -2. 1 -1.5 -2.5 -2.9 -3.7 1973: III Ill IV 10.0 .3 3.0 1.3 9.1 .7 3.7 .1 1974: I II III IV -5.6 -2.5 —2.9 -9. 1 -47 -2.6 -2.7 -9.7 — .1 -1.0 -5.7 1975: I II III -10.2 3.2 13. 1 5.6 -11.7 44 11.7 5.7 — 1975 IV —.5 a2 3.5 .3 5.0 3.6 3.3 .5 2.0 3.1 -1. 1 -.3 3.3 3.8 .3 —a 4 2. 1 6.4 1 Output refers togross dornest c product ori ginatingintlie sector in 1972 dollars, 2 Hours of all pe rsons in prH ate industry engaged in production, including hours of proprietoi's and unpaid family w orkers. Estiinates based primarily on establishment c ata. * Wages and salaaries of emp; oyees plus c mployers' c ontributions for social insurance and priv ^te benefit pians. Also inc ludes an esti mate of wage,s, salaries, and supplemental payments fo c the self-em ployed. 16 1.0 40 7.1 5.6 7.7 7.1 3.1 2.3 .2 1.7 2.6 1970. 1971 1972 1973 1974 1.0 2.6 3.0 1.8 2.6 —.4 6.3 6.4 2.2 4.7 2.7 — a6 3.0 3.5 2. 1 2.7 .0 6.2 5.9 2.3 4.5 2.6 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 a4 a4 ai 3.9 47 7.1 6.1 a3 ai 41 47 < Currem dollar gross domestic pr oduct divicled by constant dollar gr oss domestic product NOTE.—I'ereent changes are froni preceding period and are based c»n original data; they therefore m ay differ sligphtly from percent chan ges based <)n indexes shown here Source: E epartment of Labor, Btireau of La bor Statistics . PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production increased 0.5 percent in February following revised increases of 0.8 percent in each of the 3 preceding months. February production increases were widespread among the major industry and market groups. INDEX, 1967*= 100* (RATIO SCALE) 180 UTILITIES AND MINING PRODIJCTION INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE) TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 140 160 r^\ 120 f* .^.^/^*x\X UTILITIES 140 ^ 120 100 mS++.~~ I | I 1 \\ \ ! | | I 1972 I 1973 1974 1975 MINING ' Mw t 1976 \ 100 J ! M 1 1 J I I U 1 1 1 1 \ \ i n 11 1973 1972 ! 1 HI !1t I!1 1 1 \ \ ii 1 1 1 n 1974 1975 1 ! 1 I1 h M I t 1976 1975 1976 __ MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE 100 60 1972 1973 1975 1974 1972 1976 1973 1974 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE, BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period 1967 proportion 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1975: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1976: Jan " Feb v 1 2 Total iiidustrial prodiiction Percent Index, change 1967= from 100 year earlier 100. 00 110. 7 106.6 106.8 115.2 125.6 124. 8 113.8 111. 2 110. 1 109.9 110. 1 111. 1 112. 2 114. 2 116. 2 116. 7 117.6 118.5 119.5 120. 1 4.7 -3. 7 .2 7.9 9. 0 -. 6 -8. 8 -10. 8 — 11. 7 -12. 0 -12.4 -11.7 -10.6 -8.8 -7.5 -6. 5 -3.4 .9 5. 1 8.0 Output as percent of capacity. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter, s Annual data are averages of quarterly data. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Seasonally adjusted] Indus try produ ction ind exes, 196'7=100 M anufactur ing Total Durable Nondurable 88.55 62. 33 110.0 101. 4 99.4 108.4 122. 0 120. 7 105.7 104. 8 103. 5 103. 3 102. 5 103. 2 103.4 105. 4 107.0 107.6 107.8 108.4 109.2 110. 1 S6.22 111. 1 110.6 113.5 122. 1 129. 7 129. 7 121.4 115.6 113. 7 114. 8 116. 2 118. 6 120. 8 123. 4 125.7 127. 2 128. 7 130.0 131.0 131.7 110. 5 105.2 105.2 114. 0 125. 1 124.4 112. 1 109. 3 107. 7 107. 9 108. 2 109. 5 110. 6 112. 8 114.7 115.8 116.3 117.2 118.0 119. 0 Mining Utilities 6.38 107. 2 109. 7 107. 0 108. 8 5.07 119. 5 128.3 133.9 143.4 152.6 149. 9 153.9 150.9 154. 1 153. 1 152. 3 152.6 153. 9 154.6 156. 1 152. 9 154.0 156. 1 157.0 157.9 na 3 109.3 106.5 108.6 108.9 108.5 105. 9 106.3 106. 4 105. 0 105. 3 106. 4 106. 9 104. 1 104. 9 103. 1 Manuf acturing <capacity ittilization rate, p srcent l Federal Reserve seri<3 S 2 3 ComWharTotal merce4 ton Major manuseries 3 mate- series facturrials ing 86.5 7&3 75.0 78.6 83. 0 78. 9 68. 7 90.0 86.2 85.3 89.6 93.0 87.0 748 85 81 80 83 86 83 77 95.6 87.9 85.3 89.6 95.8 91. 3 79. 3 68.2 70.0 75 78.3 67.0 70.9 75 77.2 68. 9 78. 6 79 79.8 70.8 80.3 79 82. 0 * Quarterly data are for last month in quarter. Annual data are averages of four monthly indexes. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), and Wharton School of Finance. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1967=100, seasonally adjusted] Proc iucts Final produets Coiisumer goods Period Total NonDurable durable goods goods 20. 66 7.86 105. 0 110. 9 110. 1 113. 7 112. 4 104. 8 115. 9 115. 1 122.8 125. 7 129. 0 138. 9 129. 2 127. 9 112. 5 128.5 125.6 101.0 124, 2 103. 1 124.0 107. 8 125. 3 110. 5 127. 2 113. 2 129.0 115.9 129.4 116. 1 130. 1 118. 3 130. 5 118. 3 132.7 118.8 134. 3 119.9 121.9 135. 1 123.3 135.7 Total 1967 proportion 1968 1969 . 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1975: Feb Mar«* Apr May June July Aug_ _ . Sept Oct Nov Dec—.. 1976: Jan* Feb'—. 48.94 105. 8 109.0 104.5 104.7 111.9 121.3 121.7 115. 5 113.4 112.2 112. 6 113. 7 114. 5 115. 7 115. 9 116.9 117.0 117.9 119. 1 120. 1 120.7 ._ ---_ - -_ -_-.— 28. 53 106.6 111. 1 110. 3 115. 7 123. 6 131. 7 128.8 124. 1 118.9 118.2 119.7 121.2 123.3 125. 5 125. 7 126.8 127. 0 128.9 130.3 131.5 132.3 Equip>ment Internlediate proc ucts Total Business Total 20. 42 104, 7 106.1 96.3 89.4 95. 5 106. 7 111. 7 103. 6 105.3 103.9 103. 0 102.9 102. 2 102.2 102.3 102.8 102.6 102. 5 103. 6 104.3 104.5 12.74 103.4 107.9 101.4 96.8 106. 1 122. 6 129. 4 116. 8 119. 3 117. 0 115.4 115. 0 113. 9 113.9 114.9 115.6 115.7 116. 5 117.9 118.7 119.2 IS. 27 105.7 112.0 111.7 112.5 121. 1 131.0 128. 3 116. 3 115. 1 112. 7 113.4 112.4 112.8 114.3 115.4 116.6 117.0 118.5 120.6 121.7 122.5 Construction 5.93 106. 2 113. 0 110.0 112. 6 120, 8 133. 8 129. 6 112.2 112. 1 109. 1 110. 1 107,6 106. 8 108.0 109. 3 112. 0 112. 5 112. 5 114.0 114.8 116.0 Supplementary group: Energy total Materials 37. 79 105.7 112.4 107.7 107.4 117.4 129.3 127. 4 110.5 107.4 105.9 105.2 104. 9 106.0 106.8 111. 5 115. 1 116. 5 116.8 117.1 117.9 118.4 11. 21 l 130. 7 127.3 127. 9 127.4 127.7 127.2 126.6 128.2 129.0 128.2 129.1 127. 9 127.8 127.3 127. 2 126.5 [1967=100, seasonally adjusted] \ Nondurable Durab le manufiwjtures ortation Transp Primary metals Texequif >ment FabriPaper MaPeriod cated Motor Lumber tiles, and apparel, printchinand Iron metal vehicles Total and Total and products ery and products ing leather steel parts 6.90 5.93 17. 40 1. 65 7.92 4.23 9.29 4.56 6.61 1967 proportion 104.8 104.9 104. 2 106. 3 101.9 117. 7 103.6 109.7 1968_ _ _ _ _ 103. 2 108. 6 109. 1 106.8 105. 9 113.6 115. 4 114. 1 113. 0 107.6 1969 109.4 106. 3 100. 2 100. 3 90.4 107.8 96.9 105. 3 106. 9 1970 107.4 96.2 113. 9 114. 1 100. 7 107.8 92.9 100. 9 96. 6 1971 122. 4 114.8 116. 1 107.5 99. 0 123. 1 108. 1 107. 1 1972 113. 1 127. 9 130.5 115. 0 122.2 121. 7 125.8 109. 1 138. 1 127. 0 1973 131.4 121. 0 113.2 120. 1 128. 1 108.9 96. 9 124. 1 119.9 1974 114.9 95.9 112.8 98. 1 98.0 88. 3 109.6 109.6 97.0 1975 115.6 113. 7 99.6 89.6 106.6 102. 1 77. 1 77.6 105. 0 1975: Feb. 112.2 85.4 104.2 112.9 99.8 87.5 81.0 103. 1 Mar— __ __ 98. 1 112. 4 104. 1 90.4 102. 4 110.8 84. 7 99.4 93. 1 95.0 Apr 108. 0 110.9 109.0 103. 9 95. 0 93. 2 89.9 90. 1 87.6 May 110. 9 94. 9 107. 3 108. 2 90. 5 100. 0 110. 3 91.8 88. 7 June- _ _ _ 108.4 112. 0 109. 7 97.4 107.4 92.8 87. 0 91. 0 103. 2 July 112. 7 107.2 114. 5 100.2 90.4 92. 9 110. 8 110. 0 Aug _ 96. 5 97.2 111. 7 115. 5 116. 1 104.0 91.3 94.3 110. 1 113.9 Sept 112. 9 115. 9 111. 0 116.8 106.0 114.8 93. 2 94.7 97. 0 Oct 114.2 94.1 109.4 117.3 115. 0 96.0 108.4 114.7 Nov 98. 1 92.2 118. 1 115.3 95.4 110.4 95.3 116.8 109.6 116.8 Dec. 94.4 118.3 109.3 109.9 119.9 97.7 115.6 94.1 120. 1 1976: Jan *> 116.2 112.9 119.4 120.9 98.8 95.6 110.3 Feb" 95.5 r Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 tnanufacti ires Chemiicals, petro- Foods and leum, tobacco and rubber 11.92 9.48 109.6 103. 6 118.4 107.5 118. 2 110.8 124. 7 113.7 137.8 117. 6 149.3 121.9 151.7 124. 8 140.3 124.5 132.4 121. 3 130. 2 120. 0 131. 0 122. 5 132. 4 122.4 136. 2 123. 5 140. 1 124.8 143.6 125. 2 146. 2 126. 0 148. 5 126. 3 150.2 128.0 151.3 129.4 151. 3 130. 1 151.9 131.2 NEW CONSTRUCTION Constraetion contracts2 Private Total new construction expenditures Period Resid ential Total Commercial and industrial New housing Total J Other Federal, State, and local CommerTotal value cial and index industrial (1967= floor space 100) (millions of square feet) Billions of doll ars 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973__ 1974 1975 » _ 93.9 94.9 110.0 124.1 136.0 135.5 130.8 66.0 66. 8 80. 1 93.9 103. 4 97.1 89.9 33.2 31.9 43. 3 54.3 57. 6 47.0 42.9 16.2 16. 3 17.0 18. 1 21.7 23.8 20.7 25.9 24. 3 35. 1 44.9 47. 9 37.3 31. 3 16.6 18. 6 19.8 21.5 24 1 26.2 26.4 28.0 28. 1 29.9 30.2 32. 5 38.4 40. 9 Seasonally adjusted Seasonalh/ adjusted atinual rates 1975: Jan Feb.— Mar Apr May June July . Aug Sept Oet Nov Dec 9 1976: Jan »„..-_ Feb 9 132. 3 128. 9 125. 5 121. 0 121. 7 126. 9 128.8 132. 1 137. 1 135. 6 137. 8 139.6 139.8 91.2 89. 0 85.7 84. 7 84, 3 85. 0 88. 1 90. 6 92. 5 93.3 95.8 96.2 96.0 24.1 23.7 20.9 20.3 20. 3 19. 4 19. 7 20. 2 20. 3 20.0 20.4 19, 9 18.9 28.8 27.4 26.9 26.8 27. 6 28.9 30. 6 32. 1 33. 2 34.9 36. 7 37.6 37.6 39.6 38.5 38.0 37.6 38.5 40.4 43. 3 45.4 46. 0 46.5 47. 5 48.5 48.6 i Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. > F. W. Dodge series. Eelates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971 for floor space. 123.7 123. 1 145. 4 165.3 179. 5 169.7 166s 0 27. 6 26. 8 26.8 26. 9 25.4 25. 1 25. 1 25.0 26.2 26.8 27.9 27. 8 28. 6 41. 1 39.8 39.8 36.3 37.4 41.9 40.6 41. 5 44.6 42.4 42. 0 43. 5 43. 8 136 140 150 186 202 201 165 208 157 166 148 137 183 170 883 743 727 854 1,010 840 569 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 653 558 476 683 537 606 631 519 601 649 504 609 462 496 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New priv ate homes IJew private housing uniibs Period 1969,._ 1970 1971 — 1972 1973 1974 1975 * 1975: Feb Mar Apr ]May June July Aug. Sept---.-. Oct Nov Dec » 1976: Jan 9 Feb 9 1 Units started, by type of striicture Total 1 unit 1, 466. 8 1, 433. 6 2, 052. 2 2, 356. 6 2, 045, 3 1, 337. 7 1, 160. 4 810.6 812. 9 1, 151. 0 1, 309. 2 1, 132. 0 888. 1 892.2 953 986 982 1,085 1,080 1,207 1,264 1,304 1,431 1, 381 1,283 1,224 1, 555 722 763 774 853 874 916 979 966 1,093 1,048 962 950 1, 303 Seasonally adjusted. 2 Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. 2-4 units 5 or more units 571.2 535.9 780.9 906.2 795.0 381.6 204. 3 Units authorized Units completed Homes sold Vacancy rate for Homes for rental sale at housing end of units period 1 (percent) 2 1, 323. 7 1, 351. 5 1, 924. 6 2, 218. 9 1, 819. 5 1, 074. 4 924,4 1, 399. 0 1, 418. 4 1, 706. 1 1, 971. 5 2, 013. 8 1, 691. 7 1, 295. 5 448 485 656 718 620 501 544 222 220 287 409 450 402 378 Seasonally adjusted arinual rates 183 48 701 46 177 677 45 163 837 912 53 179 56 949 150 76 1,042 215 67 218 995 262 76 1, 095 103 235 1,079 79 254 1, 085 244 77 1,028 66 208 1,120 55 197 1,127 1,350 1,314 1,244 1,269 1,202 1,261 1,267 1, 315 1, 115 1,386 1,313 1,176 426 466 556 554 551 548 573 571 610 655 655 552 408 395 388 383 379 381 378 384 389 382 378 384 85.0 84.8 120.3 141.3 118.3 68. 1 64.0 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 5.5 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.0 6. 1 6.3 6. 2 5.4 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—TOTAL mm TRADE Business inventories increased $1.5 billion in January, with increases about equally divided among retail, wholesale, and manufacturers1 stocks. Business sales rose 1.1 percent. Retail sales, after declining in January, rose 1.6 percent in February, according to preliminary estimates. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCAlQ BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE} -INVENTORY-SALES RATIO 100 1972 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1976 COUNCIL QF ICQNQMJC ADVISERS Total b usiness 1 Who lesale Iietail Sales 2 Period 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1975: Jan Feb Mar ._ Apr__ May Jijnfi July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1976: Jan * Feb * Sales 2 104, 736 112, 315 124, 289 143, 823 163, 991 168, 009 161, 973 163, 388 159, 176 162, 744 163, 349 165, 803 169, 251 172, 301 173, 353 175, 017 173, $26 176, 966 178, 945 Inventories 3 175, 561 184,711 197, 692 224, 401 271, 050 264, 770 271, 148 270, 252 268, 449 266, 970 264, 335 263, 749 263, 345 264, 662 265, 087 266, 867 266, 064 264, 770 266, 261 Inven-3 Qoloe. 2 bales * tories Tntal Millions of doll ars, sea sonally iadjusted 20, 583 27, 290 31, 294 9, 524 21, 770 22, 327 29, 695 34, 071 10, 985 23, 086 24, 862 32, 817 37, 365 12, 472 24, 893 30, 400 38, 302 41, 943 14, 190 27, 754 37, 344 46, 564 44, 815 13, 943 30, 872 36, 583 45, 115 48, 702 15, 060 33, 642 36, 675 46, 197 46, 006 14, 126 31, 880 37, 120 45, 951 46, 914 14, 664 32, 250 35, 590 45, 527 45, 951 13, 378 32, 573 35, 228 45, 303 46, 813 14, 165 32, 648 35, 442 44, 558 48, 173 14, 703 33, 470 36, 186 44, 850 48, 578 14, 965 33, 613 36, 567 44, 653 49, 655 15, 432 34, 223 37, 166 45, 501 49, 925 15, 506 34, 419 37, 604 45, 625 49, 549 15, 440 34, 109 37, 449 45, 715 50, 165 15, 775 34, 390 37, 018 45, 554 50, 293 15, 763 34, 530 37, 360 45, 115 51, 990 16, 877 35, 113 38, 166 45, 621 51, 503 16, 635 34, 868 52, 345 17, 224 35, 121 1 The term "business" also includes manufacturing (see page 21) i average for year and total for month. Book value, end: of period, seasonally adjusted. * For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month. 2 Monthly 1 20 DurNonable durable goods goods stores stores In ventories 3 Tntal 46, 626 52, 571 57, 156 65, 229 74, 082 73, 081 73, 327 72, 308 71, 728 71, 483 70, 826 70, 840 71, 503 72, 578 73, 049 74, 642 73, 839 73, 081 73, 610 Inventc>ry-sales ra1 io 4 DurNonTotal able durable busigoods goods ness 1 stores stores 20, 345 23, 864 26, 056 29, 593 34, 649 33, 592 34, 267 32, 956 32, 460 32, 375 32, 086 31, 909 32, 270 33, 324 33, 471 33, 813 33, 712 33, 592 33, 510 26, 281 28, 707 31, 100 35, 636 39, 433 39, 489 39, 060 39, 352 39, 268 39, 108 38, 740 38, 931 39, 233 39, 254 39, 578 40, 829 40, 127 39, 489 40, 100 1.64 1.61 1.53 1.46 1.50 1.59 1. 67 1.65 1.69 1. 64 1. 62 1.59 1.56 1.54 1.53 1.52 1.53 1.50 1.49 Retail 1. 47 1.47 1. 46 1.46 1. 54 1.49 1. 59 1.54 1. 56 1. 53 1.47 1.46 1.44 1.45 1.47 1.49 1.47 1.41 1.43 Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND NEW ORDERS Manufacturers1 new orders increased 2.5 percent in February to an all-time high of $90.4 billion. Transportation industries—largely motor vehicles and shipbuilding and railroad equipment—accounted for most of the increase. Shipments were up 1.9 percent, the same as in January, and inventories were up $174 million, much less than in January. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALi) SltLiONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCAI4 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO 20 1976 1972 *SEASONAUY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufa eturers* sidpments 1 Manufaci }urers' in\rentories 2 Period Total 1970 52, 859 1971 55, 917 1972 62, 062 1973 71, 480 1974 81, 832 1975 82, 724 1975: Jan___ 79, 292 Feb 79, 354 Mar»_ 77, 635 Apr_.._ 80, 703 May— 79, 734 June__ 81, 039 July.. 83, 029 Aug— 85, 210 Sept.. 86, 200 Oct.,. 87, 403 Nov_. 86, 515 Dec,. 87, 616 1976: Jan___ 89, 276 Feb *_ 90, 959 NonDurable durable goods goods 28, 229 29, 948 33, 489 38, 806 42, 744 41, 527 40, 305 40, 132 39, 250 41, 221 40, 494 40, 757 41, 354 42, 444 43, 192 43, 607 42, 352 43, 681 44, 570 45, 687 24,629 25, 969 28,573 32, 674 39, 089 41, 197 38, 987 39, 222 38, 385 39, 482 39, 240 40, 282 41, 675 42, 766 43, 008 43, 796 44, 163 43, 935 44, 706 45, 272 Mailufacturc srs* new o]rders * Durat>le goods Capital NonNongoods durable Total Durable Total durable goods indusTotal goods goods tries, nondefense Millie>ns of doll ars, seaso nally adj usted 101, 645 66,768 34, 877 52, 146 27, 514 7, 055 24, 632 102, 445 60,050 36, 395 55, 754 29, 773 7,324 25, 981 107, 719 70^ 218 37, 501 63, 015 34, 368 8,487 28, 648 120, 870 7ft, 441 41, 429 73, 992 41, 253 10, 310 32, 738 150, 404 97, 967 52, 437 83, 511 44, 502 11, 494 39, 009 146, 574 95, 754 50, 820 81, 351 40, 048 10, 261 41, 302 151, 624 99, 124 52, 500 76, 115 37, 219 10, 077 38, 896 151, 993 100, 082 51, 911 76, 694 37, 578 9,970 39, 116 151, 194 99, 879 51, 315 74, 175 35, 785 9,522 38, 390 150, 184 99, 803 50, 381 78, 008 38, 391 10, 309 39, 617 148,951 99, 378 49, 573 78, 900 39, 575 10, S02 39, 325 148, 059 98, 796 49, 263 79, 789 39, 282 10, 138 40, 507 147, 189 98, 189 49, 000 83, 304 41, 435 10, 728 41, 869 146, 583 97, 199 49, 384 85, 137 42, 176 10, 392 42, 961 146, 413 96,640 49, 773 85, 482 42, 256 10, 214 43, 226 146, 510 96, 215 50, 295 86, 336 42, 307 10, 689 44, 029 146, 671 95, 953 50, 718 86, 351 41, 988 10, 690 44,363 146, 574 95, 754 50, 820 86, 754 42, 837 10, 156 43, 917 147, 030 95, 664 51, 366 88, 190 43, 284 10, 351 44, 906 147, 204 95, 667 51, 537 90, 371 45, 095 10, 802 45, 276 1 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales, 2 Book value, end of period. * End of period. * For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly Manufacturers1 unfilled3 orders 77, 093 75, 081 86, 608 117, 034 137, 328 120, 659 134, 156 131, 499 128, 043 125, 347 124, 513 123, 271 123, 545 123, 477 122, 761 121, 697 121, 530 120, 659 119, 576 118, 986 Manufacturers' inventory—shipments4 ratio 1. 89 1. 82 1. 69 1. 58 1.64 1. 80 1.91 1.92 1. 95 1.86 1.87 1.83 1.77 1. 72 1.70 1.68 1. 70 1.67 1.65 1.62 shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES WHOLESALE PRICES In February, the wholesale price index was unchanged (declined 0.5 percent after seasonal adjustment). Prices of farm products and processed foods and feeds dropped 1.4 percent (2.3 percent seasonally adjusted). Industrial commodity prices were up 0.5 percent (0.3 percent seasonally adjusted). INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 220 INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) FARM PRODUCTS AND • • PROCESSED FOODS AND FEEDS I ' / \ ; 120 120 100 100 1976 1968 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF IAKW [1967=100] Period All commodities 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 102. 5 106. 5 110. 4 113.9 119.1 134. 7 160. 1 174.9 1975: Feb Mar Apr > May . June July Aug Sept Oct. Nov 17L3 170.4 172.1 173.2 173. 7 175.7 176. 7 177. 7 178.9 178. 2 178.7 179.4 179.4 Dec 1976: Jan Feb Farm products Indusand trial processed commodfoods ities and feeds 102.4 108.0 111.7 113. 8 122.4 159. 1 177.4 184.2 Unadjusted 179. 5 174.9 178.8 181. 2 182.3 188.2 189.0 190. 4 190.5 186. 1 186.0 1846 182. 0 Special gjroupings Farm products and feeds 102.5 106.0 110.0 114.0 117.9 125.9 153.8 171.5 102. 5 109.1 111. 0 112.9 125.0 176. 3 187.7 186. 7 102. 2 107. 3 112. 1 114. 3 120.8 148. 1 170. 9 182. 6 168.4 168. 9 169.7 170.3 170. 7 171. 2 172.2 173. 1 174. 7 175.4 176. 1 177.3 178.1 170.2 168. 1 179.3 184. 5 181. 7 193.7 190. 7 198. 9 203.2 198. 0 196.4 190.9 186. 2 180.3 175. 7 181.9 180. 3 178. 1 183. 9 184. 5 186. 3 187.7 186. 5 181. 0 178.3 174. 1 1 Excludes crude foodstuffs and feedstnffs, plant and animal fibers, oilseeds leaftobacco. 22 Processed foods Crude materials l Inter- Producmediate er finmate-2 ished rials goods 102. 6 102. 0 103. 5 106.1 110.6 106.9 110. 0 111.9 118.8 114. 3 122.7 116.6 118. 9 131. 1 119.5 128. 1 155.2 123.5 159. 5 219. 1 141.0 178. 6 162. 5 225. 1 Seas onally ad us ted 176.1 158. 1 218. 8 217.7 176. 4 159.7 176.8 160.7 220. 1 224.2 161.2 176. 5 225.4 176. 7 161.7 223.4 162.4 177.6 226. 5 178.8 162.8 232. 7 179.5 164.0 181.8 166.7 231. 1 183. 1 227.9 167.7 184. 3 233.8 168.0 235.4 184.8 169.3 232. 5 185. 0 169.7 Consunler finishe d goods ex<duding fo ads Nondurable Total Durable 102. 1 104.6 107.7 111. 2 113.5 118.6 138.6 153. 1 102.2 104.0 107. 0 110. 9 113.2 115.8 126. 3 138. 2 102. 2 105. 0 108. 3 111. 3 113.6 120.5 146.8 163. 0 149.7 150.0 150.3 150.8 151. 5 152.4 153.9 155.4 157.3 158. 1 158.6 159.1 159.2 135.8 136.9 136.9 136.9 137.3 137. 4 137.7 139. 0 141. 5 141. 9 141.8 142. 2 142. 3 159. 0 158. 9 159. 3 160. 1 161. 0 162. 5 164. 6 166. 1 167. 5 168. 7 169. 9 169. 8 170. 4 'Includes supplies and components; excludes intermediate materials tor food manufacturing and manufactured animal feeds. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES In February, the consumer price index rose 0.2 percent (0.1 percent seasonally adjusted). Food prices declined 0.4 percent (1.0 percent seasonally adjusted). Nonfood commodily prices rose 0.3 percent (also 0.3 percent seasonally adjusted) and services prices were up 0.7 percent (also 0.7 percent seasonally adjusted). INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALQ 220 INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCAI4 220 100 100 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1975 1974 1976 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [1967= 100] Period All items Food Commodities Services food 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 104. 2 109.8 116. 3 121.3 125.3 133. 1 147. 7 161. 2 103. 6 108.9 114.9 118.4 123. 5 141.4 161. 7 175. 4 1975 :Feb— _ Mar___ Apr May___ June July Aug Sept-... Oct Nov Dec— _ 157.2 157. 8 158. 6 159. 3 160. 6 162. 3 162. 8 163. 6 164. 6 165.6 166.3 171. 6 171. 3 171. 2 171. 8 174. 4 178. 6 178. 1 177.8 179. 0 179.8 180.7 1976: Jan 166.7 Feb... 167. 1 180.8 180.0 Food All Comnaodities less food All commodities All Food »t home Food away from home 105.2 111. 6 119. 9 126. 1 131. 1 141. 4 159. 4 174. 3 Dur- 105.2 112.5 121.6 128.4 133. 3 139. 1 152. 1 166. 6 103.7 108.4 113.5 117. 4 120. 9 129.9 145. 5 158.4 103.6 108. 9 114.9 118.4 123. 5 141.4 161. 7 175.4 103.2 108. 2 113.7 116.4 121. 6 141. 4 162.4 175.8 144.9 146. 0 147. 2 148. 1 148. 9 149.9 150. 7 151.4 152. 2 152. 6 152. 8 162.6 163. 2 164. 1 164. 5 165. 7 166.6 167.4 169. 1 170. 1 172. 0 173. 1 154. 6 155. 0 155.6 156. 5 157.6 159. 6 160. 1 160.6 161. 5 162. 2 162. 9 171. 1 170. 6 171. 0 172. 5 174. 6 177. 8 177. 5 178. 0 179.6 180.6 181. 6 171.1 170.3 170.6 172.3 174. 9 178. 6 178. 1 178. 4 180.2 181. 2 182. 1 174. 5 175. 3 176. 4 177. 5 178.6 179. 5 145. 7 ' 146. 6 147.4 147. 9 148. 5 149.8 150.7 151. 2 151.7 152. 2 152.8 152.3 152.7 1749 176.1 163. 1 162.7 181.2 179.4 181.4 178.6 180.9 182.4 153. 1 153. 5 103. 7 108. 1 112.5 116.8 119.4 123. 5 136.6 149. 1 Unac justed 103. 108. 112. 116. 119. 123. 136. 149. 7 1 5 8 4 5 6 1 Non- ' Services able able 103. 1 107. 0 111.8 116.5 118.9 121. 9 130. 6 145. 5 104. 1 108. 8 113. 1 117. 0 119. 8 124.8 140. 9 151. 7 141.6 143.2 144.4 144.8 145.4 146.2 147. 0 147.6 148. 1 148. 5 149.2 148. 7 148. 9 149. 5 150. 0 150.7 152. 4 153.4 153. 7 154.4 154,8 155.3 162.4 163. 3 164. 3 164. 9 166. 0 166. 9 167. 6 169. 0 170. 0 171. 7 172. 8 149. 7 150. 6 155.6 155.7 174. 7 176. 0 105. 2 112.!' 5 121.6 128.4 133. 3 139. 1 152. 1 166.6 Seasonal y adjust ed 170.9 171.8 172. 4 173. 1 173; 4 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 68-661c—76 23 CHANGES IN WHOLESALE PRICES Percent c lange fro m 3 mont is earlier; Percent <jhange from 6 mont hs earlier; season ally adjusted annua 1 rates seasoniilly adjussted annujal rates Percen t change from preceding perio d; seasortally adjujsted 1 Industrial commodities Processed foods and feeds Industrial commodities Processed foods and feeds All commodities Farm products Processed foods and feeds 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1.0 2.8 4.8 2.2 4.0 6.5 15.4 20.9 4.2 -2.7 4.4 8.4 -4.7 8.1 18.7 36.1 — 1.9 5.5 -1.2 3.0 6.8 .8 4.7 11.6 20.3 20.9 -3.8 1.9 2.7 3.9 3.6 3.2 3,6 10.7 25.6 6.0 1975: Feb.. Mar. Apr.MayJune. July. Aug.. Sept. Oct.. Nov. Dec.. -.8 -.5 1. 5 .4 — .1 1.2 .8 .6 1.8 .0 —.4 -4.3 -1.2 • —2.7 -2.6 3.5 4.3 2.2 -7.7 -40,8 -6.3 -33,4 3.2 .6 5. 5 38. 1 7.2 36. 5 36.2 6.0 14. 1 7.7 43.6 11.1 ias 21.1 16.2 10.1 5.6 -4.9 -25. 1 -24. 0 -7. 1 .0 5.6 4.5 9.6 19.7 8,5 4.4 -10.9 5.4 4.2 2.4 1.5 2.6 4,0 6.0 7.3 10.7 10.6 10. 1 4.5 3.5 .8 -1.3 .3 3.2 6.6 9.1 9.6 8.9 8.3 -17.0 -16.9 -13.8 -9.6 -4.7 18.6 25.5 40.0 28.4 15.2 16.8 -13.4 -10.4 -1.5 4.7 12.4 -2.6 _, o -1.2 3.3 .3 1.0 .8 —.6 -2.9 4 1 1 2 4 4 6 7 12 6 6 -2.8 -2.5 -1.5 -2.4 4 3 -1,7 -22. 1 -3.8 -21.8 -18.6 -24 1 6.5 5.3 5.6 2.9 -2.9 -4.7 -6.0 -1LO Period 1976: Jan.. Feb.. .0 _.5 a7 2.9 -1.5 6.6 -1.5 ^ g All commodities Farm products All commodities Farm products 2.7 -1.5 *""" O. O as 7.0 3.3 Industrial commodities 9.5 7.6 4.7 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.7 5.0 7.3 8.2 a7 8.6 7.9 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. » Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted). CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES PerceEit changej from pre ceding period; seasorially adju sted1 Food Commodities less food 3.0 4.7 6. 1 5.5 3.4 3.4 8.8 12,2 7.0 1.2 4.3 7.2 2.2 4,3 4.7 20.1 12.2 6.5 3.1 3.7 4.5 4.8 2.3 2.5 5. 0 13.2 6.2 4.0 6. 1 7.4 8.2 4.1 3.6 6.2 11.3 8.1 1975: Feb... Mar.._ Apr — May_. June. . July... Aug— . Sept Oct... Nov... Dec... .5 .4 .5 .5 .7 1.0 .4 .4 .6 .6 .5 — l _ O 2 9 12 18 -2 3 9 6 6 .7 .6 .5 .3 .4 .9 .6 .3 .3 .3 .4 8 6 6 4 7 5 4 8 6 10 6 1976: Jan.. Feb... .4 .1 — 2 -1.0 .2 .3 1.1 .7 Period All items 1967 1968 1969 1970. 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1 _- Percent c lange f re>m 3 mont hs earlier; Percent c hange frc>m 6 months earlier; seasonsilly adju sted annu al rates seasoni illy adju sted annu al rates Services Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted). 24 Food Commodities less food 8.3 6.6 5.7 5.7 7.0 9. 1 8. 5 7.4 5.8 6.8 7.3 5.8 .5 —.7 3.3 9. 7 16.9 12. 1 8. 0 4. 1 7.2 8.3 8.1 8.0 7.7 6.2 5.3 6.7 7.8 7. 5 5.2 4.0 4.3 10.5 9.3 8.2 6.3 6.8 6.5 6.7 7.4 7.6 10.2 9.3 6.5 4.4 3.6 -2.6 3.7 3.5 11.5 10.4 All items Services Food Commodities less food 10.3 8.6 7.9 7.0 6.8 7.4 7. 1 7.2 7.4 7.7 7.4 11.3 6.6 5. 1 4.6 5.0 7.7 7.6 8.9 10.3 9.6 8.2 9.4 8.7 8.2 7.1 6.6 7.2 7.0 6.4 5.9 5.9 5.9 10.8 9.9 9.2 8.4 8.0 7.3 6.5 7. 1 7.1 8.4 8.4 6.1 5.6 3.9 2.2 as 4,5 9.6 10.3 All items Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Services PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers increased % percent during the month ended February 15. Contributing most to the increase were higher prices for wheat, cattle, calves, hogs, and potatoes. Partially offsetting were lower prices for milk, lettuce, eggs, celery, and tomatoes. Prices paid were unchanged. Both the actual and adjusted parity ratios also were unchanged. INDEX, 1967 PRICES RKHVED (ALL FARM PRODUCTS) PRICES PAID (ALL ITEMS, WTERBST", TAXES, AND WAGE RATES) 1968 1969 1970 ' 1971 1972 * 1973 1974 1976 1975 J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AKD WAGE RATES, ON Hid-14*100 BASE. SOURCE, DEPARTMENT Of AGWCUtTURE COUNCIL d KONOMIC ABVWERS Prices received by farmers Period 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1975: Jan 15 Feb 15 .... ... MarlS Apr 15— May 15 June 15 July 15 Aug 15... Sept 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 1976: Jan 15 Feb 15 1 All farm products . 103 108 110 112 126 172 184 181 172 168 165 170 178 182 187 187 194 193 185 187 186 187 Crops Prices paid by far mers All items, Livestock interest, Family Producand living tion taxes, and products wage rates items items Index, 1967=100 101 97 100 107 116 164 214 194 201 192 185 188 189 192 199 201 202 199 188 188 188 190 Percentage ratio of index of prices receiYed by fanners to index of prices paid, Interest, taxes, and wage rates on 1910-14=100 base. 104 117 118 116 134 179 164 172 153 151 152 157 171 176 180 179 188 190 184 187 185 185 104 109 114 120 126 145 169 185 181 180 179 182 184 185 186 187 189 189 189 189 193 193 104 109 114 119 124 138 161 177 173 175 173 173 175 176 178 179 180 180 182 182 183 183 102 106 110 115 122 146 172 188 182 180 179 185 187 190 190 192 194 192 192 192 193 194 Parity ratio l Actual 73 74 72 70 74 88 81 73 71 69 69 69 72 73 75 74 76 76 73 73 72 72 Adjusted2 79 80 77 74 79 91 81 73 72 70 69 70 73 74 75 75 77 77 73 74 72 72 2 The adjusted parity ratio reflects Government payments made directly to farmers. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK Mi grew by $1.5 billion from January to February after being essentially unchanged from November to January. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 300 200 200 1968 1976 SOURCE-- BOARD OF GOVERNORS Of THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM •COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC -ADVISERS , .[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]:;. Deposi ts at co mmercia banks PfvrinH f ClivU M, 1971: Dec.. 1972: Dec.. 1973: Dec.. 1974: Dec.. 1975: Dec.. 1975 : Feb. MarApr. _ May . June . JulyAug_. Sept__ Oct. _ Nov.. Dec- _ 1976: Jan— Feb... 233. 8 255. 3 270. 5 283. 1 295. 0 281. 9 284. 1 284.9 287. 6 291. 0 291. 9 293. 2 293. 6 293. 4 295. 7 295. 0 295. 3 290.8 M, 471.7 525.3 571. 4 612.4 663. 3 618.2 623. 0 626. 7 633. 7 642. 4 647. 5 650. 6 652. 9 655. 7 661. 6 663. 3 669. 0 676. 9 M3 745.1 844.9 919.5 981.6 1,091.8 994.0 1,003.7 1,012.7 1,025.3 1,010.2 1,051.6 1,060.6 1,068.1 , 1,075.6 1,086.0 1,091.8 1,102.4 1,115.5 Currency 52. 6 56. 9 61. 5 67. 8 73. 7 68.7 69. 4 69. 5 70. 2 71. 0 71. 3 71. 9 72. 0 72. 6 73. 4 73. 7 74. 2 75. 0 Tim e and sa vings Demand 181. 3 198. 4 209. 0 215. 3 221. 3 213. 2 214. 7 21 5. 4 217. 4 220. 0 220. 6 221. 3 221. 6 220. 8 222.3 221. 3 221. 2 221. 8 Total Large CD's Other 271. 2 313. 6 364. 4 419. 1 451. 2 428. 3 428. 7 430. 1 431. 2 435. 5 437. 6 436. 2 438. 3 443. 2 447.6 451. 2 452. 9 455.5 33. 3 43.6 63. 5 89.8 82. 9 92. 1 89. 8 88.4 85. 1 84. 1 82. 1 78. 8 79. 1 80. 9 81. 8 82. 9 79.2 75.4 237. 8 270.0 300. 9 329. 3 368. 3 336. 2 339. 0 341. 8 346. 1 351. 4 355. 5 357.4 359. 2 362. 3 365. 9 368. 3 373. 7 380. 1 * Mi is currency plus demand deposits; Mi is Mi plus lime deposits at commercial banks other than large certificates of deposit (CD's); and Ma is Mi plus deposits at nonbank thrift insiilulions. 26 Per cent cha nge 2 Comporlents anc [ related iterns Over all meas ures • Deposits at nonbnnk thrift institutions 273. 4 319. 6 348. 0 369. 2 428. 5 375. 9 380. 7 386.0 391. 6 397. 8 404. 1 410. 0 415. 2 420.0 424. 4 428. 5 433. 4 438. 6 U.S. Government demand deposits (unadjust- M i, M. 3 ed) 6. 9 7.4 6. 3 4. 9 4.2 3.3 3. 8 4.0 4. 1 4. 2 3. 4 2. 7 3. 9 3. 4 3. 5 4. 2 3.8 4. 6 6.5 9.2 6. 0 4,7 4.2 1.7 3. 1 2.7 3.6 5. 7 7.2 8.2 6. 8 6. 1 5.7 2. 8 2.3 2.5 11.4 11.4 8. 8 7. 2 8. 3 5.9 6. 9 6.5 7.7 10. 0 11. 0 10. 8 9. 8 9. 5 9. 0 6. 6 6.8 8.2 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are trom 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. PRIVATE LIQUID ASSET HOLDINGS—HONFINANCIAII INVESTORS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] i Curre ncy and cleposits U.S. G overnment securities Time d eposits Total liquid ShortCur- Demand Nonbank assets Total term Comrency deposits Savings thrift mercial marketbonds instituable sebanks tions curities Period 1969: 1970: 1971: 1972: 1973: 1974: 1975: Dec__ Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec - 1975: Jan Feb Mar Apr. _.-j. May June July Aug__ . Sept OctL...-- Nov Dec Commercial paper 583. 1 737.0 632.5 784.8 719.9 866.3 816. 1 979. 2 885.4 1, 092. 3 1, 183. 4 940. 9 1, 299. 9 1, 051. 3 46. 1 49. 1 52. 6 56,9 61. 5 67.8 73.7 144. 8 151.4 160.3 174. 9 180. 9 182. 1 188. 9 177.3 199. 3 233. 7 264. 7 294.9 321.9 360. 2 214,9 232.7 273. 4 319. 6 348.0 369. 2 428.5 51.7 52.0 54.3 57. 6 60. 4 63. 3 67. 3 64.0 52. 6 37.8 38. 3 50. 3 57. 8 68.3 9.0 23.0 30. 2 39.7 57. 9 79. 6 72.7 29. 1 24. 7 24. 0 27.5 38.3 41.8 40.4 945. 7 952.9 962.4 971.4 983. 9 999.2 1, Oil. 1 1, 020. 3 1, 027. 4 1, 035. 2 1, 046. 0 1, 051. 3 68.2 68.7 69.4 69. 5 70.2 71.0 71.3 71.9 72.0 72.6 73.4 73.7 180. 7 180. 6 182.0 183.3 185.2 187. 8 188. 7 • 189. 6 189.7 188. 9 190. 5 188. 9 324. 327. 330. 332. 336. 342. 347. 348. 350. 353. 357. 360. 6 7 3 6 9 6 0 8 5 8 6 2 372. 2 375. 9 380. 7 386. 0 391. 6 397. 8 404. 1 410.0 415. 2 420. 0 424.4 428. 5 63.6 63. 9 64. 2 64. 5 64. 8 65.1 65. 6 65.9 66. 2 66.6 67.0 67.3 58.4 58. 0 57. 2 57. 2 57. 1 58.2 60. 8 62. 2 61.0 62.9 . 67. 0 68. 3 82. 5 82.2 79.9 78.7 75.3 73.7 71.9 69. 1 69.3 70. 6 71. 4 72. 7 41.7 42. 8 44,0 44,4 43.9 43.0 42. 1 41. 1 40.4 40.2 40. 4 40.4 1, 307. 8 1, 061. 9 1, 318. 1 1, 075. 2 74.2 75.0 188.6 188.7 365. 9 372.9 433. 3 438.6 67.6 67.9 68.8 69.5 69. 1 65.2 40.4 40.3 1, 191. 8 1, 199. 8 1, 207. 7 1, 216. 2 1,225. 1 1, 239. 4 1, 251. 4 _ _ 1, 258. 6 1, 264. 4 1, 275. 5 1, 291. 6 1, 299. 9 1976: Jan Feb » Negotiable certificates of deposit Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; CONSUMER INSTALMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Instalm ent credit e^^tended Period Total i 1969 1970 1971 1972 _ 1973 1974 1975 109, 112, 124, 142, 164, 166, 166, Automobile Bank credit cards Instalmcjnt credit lieluidated Total i 146 158 686 862 527 170 833 32, 553 29, 794 35, 036 40, 447 46, 486 43, 431 46, 530 4, 398 6,768 8,376 10, 390 13, 862 17, 098 19, 567 1975: Jan Feb Mar Apr_ __ _ May June Julv Aug.. .._ Sept Oct Nov Dec 12, 849 13, 244 12, 735 13, 168 12, 993 13, 620 14, 322 14, 427 14, 555 14, 832 14, 877 15, 295 3, 334 3, 881 3,488 3,477 3,554 3, 753 4, 124 4,032 4, 235 4, 189 4,218 4, 405 1, 581 1,522 1, 514 1,554 1,517 1,606 1, 618 1,689 1, 737 1,698 1,752 1,719 13, 276 13, 117 13, 217 13, 409 13, 359 13, 412 13, 436 13, 790 13, 795 14, 002 14, 072 14, 401 1976: Jan 16, 205 4,511 1,840 14, 910 \ * Includes some items not shown separately. 99, 107, 115, 127, 143, 156, 163, 786 199 087 078 701 346 113 Automobile Bank credit cards 29, 30, 31, 34, 39, 42, 45, 3, 5, 7, 9, 12, 15, 18, Net change in amount <Dutstanding Total * Automobile 066 615 679 471 434 656 769 9, 360 4, 959 9, 599 15, 784 20, 826 9,824 3, 719 2,579 -343 3,618 5, 492 6,980 935 1, 420 3,604 3, 623 3,812 3,746 3,718 3,751 3, 741 3,818 3,849 3, 800 3, 814 3,865 1,419 1, 480 1,517 1,512 1,508 1, 504 i, 548 1, 576 1, 631 1,619 1, 723 1,768 -427 -270 4, 023 1,733 974 137 418 955 506 496 110 128 Bank credit cards 1,332 1, 153 697 919 1,428 1,442 798 162 42 208 886 637 759 830 805 894 258 ^324 -270 -164 2 383 213 385 389 404 540 — 49 1,295 488 107 — 482 — 242 -366 3 43 9 102 69 113 106 78 29 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK LOANS, INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES Commercial and industrial loans fell by $1 billion in February while holdings of U.S. Government securities showed the largest monthly increase since April 1975. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) All BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCAL$ COMMERCIAL BANKS INVESTMENT IN US GOVERNMENT SECURITIES •'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, END OF MONTH SOURCE. BOARD Of GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 » 1975: Feb Mar Apr Mav June July " Aug 9 Sept 9 Oct 9p Nov p Dec 1976: Jan * Feb 9 1 2 Total loans and investments 401.7 435. 5 484. 8 556.4 630. 3 5 687. 1 717. 2 692. 6 697. 0 _ _ 699. 1 702. 0 705. 0 706.4 710.4 711. 6 715. 0 721. 3 717. 2 720. 5 725. 2 [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] All me mber ban ks Allc ommereial 1>anks l Borrowi tigs (milIReserves 2 3 L<Dans lions of dollars, Invest!nents i unadjiis'ted) 2 Total ex- Commer- U.S. Gov- Other NonAvailcluding cial and SeaTotal Total ernment secuborrowed able 4 inter- industrial securities sonal rities bank 26. 81 25. 46 27. 93 1,086 279. 1 105. 7 51. 5 71. 1 321 28.77 26. 81 29. 11 291.7 110.0 85. 9 57. 9 31. 12 28. 78 320. 3 104. 4 31. 24 107 60. 1 115. 9 30. 39 31. 44 29. 00 1,049 377. 8 129. 7 61. 9 116. 7 33. 69 32. 78 34. 98 155. 8 447. 3 52. 8 1,298 41 130. 2 35. 90 34. 42 182. 6 36. 63 703 498. 2 32 48. 8 140. 1 34. 62 32. 44 34. 75 494. 7 177. 7 144. 6 77. 9 127 13 182. 5 33. 50 35. 49 35. 34 498. 9 147 53. 2 140. 5 10 34. 88 32. 94 34. 99 180. 9 498. 3 106 58. 5 140. 2 7 34. 97 495. 0 180. 5 33. 00 110 64, 0 140. 1 35. 08 7 492. 8 34. 74 34. 67 32. 77 60 179. 1 68.2 141. 0 9 34. 85 32. 90 489. 9 176. 3 271 72.4 142. 7 35.07 11 34. 68 32. 89 261 489.6 177.6 73.4 143.4 34.98 17 211 34. 67 32. 77 490. 7 177.5 144. 1 34.88 75. 6 38 32. 77 490. 4 176.4 144. 1 34.99 61 77. 1 34.59 396 494. 1 32. 61 191 177. 9 75. 1 34.79 34.60 145. 8 65 32. 43 61 498. 0 178. 9 34.73 76. 3 34.67 147. 0 28 32. 44 34. 75 34. 62 494. 7 177. 7 144. 6 127 13 77.9 495.4 34. 32 34.24 32. 17 178. 1 79 80. 2 144. 9 9 34. 05 496. 2 177. 1 84. 4 144. 6 33. 97 76 31. 85 11 Data are for end of period. Averages of daily figures. Annual data are for December. » Member bank reserves series reflects actual reserve requirement percentages with no adjustment to eliminate the effect of changes in Regulations D and M. * Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits are denned as (1) required reserves for (a) private demand deposits, (b) total time and savings 28 COUNC& OF KONQMK AOVBCRS deposits, and (c) nondeposit sources subject to reserve requirements and (2) excess reserves. This series excludes required reserves for new interbank and U.S. Government demand deposits. 6 Beginning June 1974, a bank merger increased total loans and investments by $0.6 billion, and beginning November 1974, liquidation of a large bank reduced total loans and investments by $1,5 billion. For eflect on other categories, see Federal Reterve Bulletin. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses External Period TVvf al Internal 1 Credit market funds Total TVvfsil 1966 1967. _ 1968.. 1969 1970__ 1971___ 1972 1973 1974 1975 1975:1 II Ill IV __ _ 96.5 93.6 114.0 119.0 102.9 120. 5 149.5 175.4 179.5 147.3 85.0 137.1 167.0 199. 8 60.4 61. 1 62. 1 61. 6 58. 7 68. 0 80.2 83.8 77.7 105. 3 86. 0 103.2 114.0 118. 1 36. 1 32. 5 51.9 57.4 44.2 52. 5 69.3 91.6 101.8 42.0 -1.0 33.9 53.0 81. 7 Total Other Longterm 2 Short-3 term 15. 7 9.6 8.0 13.2 18.9 8.8 5.0 16. 0 32. 7 40.8 -13.5 -25. 3 -23.7 -7.2 2.0 25. 3 29.6 31.5 38. 9 39. 5 46. 8 55. 3 67.2 77. 1 34. 2 29.7 32.0 26. 0 49.0 21. 6 18.4 20.0 30. 7 41. 8 39. 3 34. 5 36.3 47. 6 55. 0 55. 5 33.2 47.0 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) and capital consumption allowances. *8 Stocks, bonds, and mortgages. Bank loans, commercial paper, finance company loans, bankers' acceptancesf and Government loans. 10.9 3.0 20.4 18.5 4.8 5.7 14. 0 24. 5 24.7 7.9 -30. 7 1.9 27. 0 32.6 88.2 89.7 105.0 112.6 95.0 111. 0 134.8 164. 1 167.8 135. 3 73. 3 125.6 155.7 186.5 Purchase of physical assets 4 75.6 72.9 76.0 84.2 82. 1 87.9 104.0 123. 2 124. 0 98. 8 91. 5 81. 5 109. 2 113. 2 Increase in financial assets 12.6 16.8 29. 0 28.4 12.9 23. 1 30.8 40.9 43.8 36. 5 -18.2 44.1 46. 5 73.3 Discrepancy (sources less uses) 8.4 4. O 9.0^ 6. a 8. O 9.5 14.7 11.2 11. 8 12. 0* 11.7 11.4 11. 3 13. a < Plant and equipment, residential structures, and inventory investment. Note.—Series revised beginning 1962. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars] Cu rrent asse ts End of period Current liab ilities Other Cash U.S. ReceivNotes ables InGovand curon /•___„ from acven- rent ernU.S. Total hand asand ment counts tories /""»««» VjrOVin securireceivsets* 2 ernable banks * ties ment 3 364.0 1966 386.2 1967 426.5 1968 473.6 1969 492.3 1970 529.6 1971. 1972 573.5 643.3 1973 712.2 1974 1974: I_ 666.2 II 685.4 III.. 708.6 IV_ 712.2 1975: I.... 698.4 II__- 703.2 III.. 716.5 41.9 45.5 48.2 47.9 50.2 sa3 57.5 61:6 62.7 59.4 58.8 60.3 62.7 60.6 ea7 65.6 13.0 10.3 11.5 10.6 7.7 11.0 9.3 11.0 11.7 12.1 ia7 11.0 11.7 12. 1 12.7 14,3 4.5 5.1 5.1 4,8 42 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.3 3.3 142. 1 150.2 168.8 192.2 201.9 217.6 240.0 266.1 289.7 276.2 289.8 295.5 289.7 281.9 284.8 294.7 142.8 153. 1 166.0 186.4 193.3 200.4 215.2 246.7 288.0 258.4 269.2 282. 1 288.0 285.2 281. 4 279.6 * Includes time certificates of deposit. 2 Includes Federal agency issues. * Receivables from and payables to the U.S. Government do not include amounts offset against each other on corporations' books or amounts arising from 1&7 22.0 26.9 31.6 35.0 43.8 48. 1 54,4 56.6 56.9 53.5 56. 1 56.6 55.4 57.3 59.0 Advances and Notes preand Total payacments, counts payU.S. Govable ern- s ment 199.4 211.3 244. 1 287.8 304.9 326.0 352.2 401.0 450.6 416.0 431.5 449.1 450.6 43RO 434.2 444.7 4,4: 5.8 6.4 7.3 6.6 4.9 4.0 4.3 5.2 4,5 4.7 5. 1 5.2 5.3 5.8 6.2 133.1 141.3 162. 4 191.9 204,7 215.6 230.4 261. 6 287.5 266.5 27R5 287.0 287.5 271.2 270. 1 273.4 Federal income tax liabilities Other current liabilities 17; 4 13.2 14.3 12.6 10.0 13.1 15.1 18.1 23.2 20.6 19. 0 22.7 23.2 21. 8 17.7 19.4 44.5 51.0 61.0 76.0 83.6 92.4 102.6 117.0 134,8 124.4 129. 1 134.3 134.8 139.8 140. 6 145.6 Net working capital 164. a 174. 9 182. 4 185. 7 187. 4 203. 6 221. 242. 261. 250. 253. 259. 261. 260. 269. 271. 3 3 5 2 9 55 4 08- subcontracting which are not directly due from or to the U.S. Government. Wherever possible, adjustments have been made to include U.S. Government advances offset against inventories on corporations' books. 4 Includes marketable investments (other than Government securities and time certificates of deposit) as well as sundry current assets. Source: Securities and Exchange Commission. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Both short-term and long-term interest rates stabilized in March changing little from their February averages. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM 10 10 CORPORATE.fi**a BONDS (MOO Drs) \A / ,r^J v \ ^ X—X /] ''X\ \ ,<jd v l \ '/» I ?ATE FE DERAL RE-SERVE BA NK OF NENV YORK j — >*"*•• ^—•"^ 1969 r-f J » iv >J •" \ \ \ / / H 1970 "* **~* A / \ V 1 L n1 KA L M/ I / *. ; 'J / TREASURY fJILLS * 1 / —I ?•**** j s '"• j^—. '•i V \ \ J / \T I t 1 1 | 1 1 1 ! 1 14 M I i ' ! M ' M ! 1 J. 1 1 J !•! J U 1968 <"] \ t /V \L • 1 \ L \ t ./ A /J V /|M ! 1 ! ! ! 1 I 1 1 k \ pisCOUNT 1 vy / V** t / .'"'•-•'"i / A ! 1 t t 1 1 1 ! \ ! | f 1 1 I t 1 1 1 1! 1 1973 1972 1971 1 t 1 It 1 ?1 M 1 t t ! 1 I 1 1 ! I 1 !M l M I t 1 ! M K 1974 19/5 SOURCE,- SEE TABLE BELOW 1976 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] U.S. Govemment seen rity yields Period 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1975: Mar Apr May. June July Aug Sept Oct No\f Dec.. 1976: Jan Feb— . Mar Week ended : 1976: Mar 12__ 19.. 26__ Apr. 2__ 3-month Treasury bills » 3-5 year issues 3 Taxable bonds 3 HighCorporate grade municipal Aaa bonds bonds (Standard (Moody's) & Poor's)4 6.458 4,348 4.071 7.041 7.886 5.838 5. 544 5.694 5. 315 5. 193 6. 164 6.463 6.383 6.081 5.468 5.504 4.961 4.852 5.047 7.37 5.77 5.85 6.92 7.81 7.55 7.00 7.76 7.49 7.26 7.72 8. 12 8.22 7.80 7.51 7. 50 7. 18 7. 18 6.59 5.74 5.63 6.30 6.99 6.98 6.73 7.03 6.99 6.86 6.89 7.06 7.29 7.29 7.21 7. 17 6.94 6.92 6.51 5.70 5.27 5.18 6.09 6.89 6.61 6.83 6.81 6.76 6.94 7.02 7.23 7.22 7.21 7.06 6.80 6. 91 8.04 7.39 7. 21 7.44 5.060 4.981 4. 890 4. 929 7.30 7.25 7.14 6. 91 6.89 6.80 6.96 6.91 6. 75 8. 55 8. 54 1 Rate on new issues within period. s Selected note and bond issues. 8 April 1953 to date, bonds due or callable 10 years and after. *6 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 8 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month'-and week. jt-»^g,j.jujjuiAig, w vojuj-ud ,1:71,1, utviuva auujJi/cu Beginning AT November 1971, ot'vciai. several banks adopted »-UUOLliig a floating pome prime I»M3 rate JUjytJU. keyed to money market variables. Beginning April 16, 1973, with the adoption of the "dual prime rate", this table shows only the rate charged for large business loans. 30 a 57 8.83 a 67 8.95 8.90 8.77 8.84 8.95 8,95 8.86 8.78 8. 79 8. 60 8.55 a so 7 Prime commercial paper 4-6 months 7.72 5, 11 4.69 8.15 9.87 6.33 6.06 6. 15 5.82 5.79 6.44 6.70 6.86 6,48 5.91 5.97 5.27 5.23 5. 38 5. 4.5 5.35 Discount rate (N.Y. F.B. 5.95 4.88 4.50 6.44 7.83 6.25 6%-6% gi^_g^ &/4T 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 -6 -6 -6 -6 -6 -6 -6 -5H Prime rate charged by banks « fi 7. 91 5.70 5.25 a 02 10.80 7.86 8J4-7H 7^_7i^ 7^_7^ 7^-7 7 -Ttf 7^-8 8 -7% 7^_7^ 7}f~6% 5/^2— 5/^2 6%— 6% 5^2~5/i 5/2-5M 6%~6% Newhome mortgage yields (FHLBB)7 8.45 7.74 7.60 7.95 8.92 9.01 9.06 8.96 8.90 8,96 8.89 a 89 8.94 9.01 9.01 9.01 8.99 8.94 6%—6% Effective rate, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Rates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates. j Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank —---— — — Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation, COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices advanced strongly in March. INDEX, DEC31,1965= INDEX, DEC 311965=50 80 70 COMPOSITE PRICE INDEX (NYSE) 60 50 40 30 1968 1969 1973 1970 1974 1976 PERCENT 1 20 PERCENT 20 15 15 EARNINGS/PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS (S&P) 10 1968 1969 1970 1971 1973 1972 1974 1975 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION Common s tock5yields (perc ent) Cominon stock pirices 1 Period New York Stock Exch ange indexe 3 (Dec. 31, 1.965=50) 2 Composite Industrial 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1975: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1976: Jan Feb Week ended : 1976: Mar 5 12 19 26 Transportation Finance Utility 45.72 54.22 60.29 57.42 43.84 45.73 38.56 42.48 44.35 44.91 47.76 49.22 49.54 45.71 44.97 46.87 47.64 46.78 51.31 53.73 48.03 57.92 65.73 63.08 48.08 50.52 41.29 46.00 48.63 49.74 53.22 54.61 54.96 50.71 50. 05 52.26 52.91 51.89 57. 00 59.79 32.14 44.35 50. 17 37.74 31,89 31. 10 28. 12 30.21 31.62 31.70 32.28 32.38 32.90 30.08 29.46 30.79 32.09 31.61 35.78 38. 53 37.24 39.53 38.48 37.69 29.79 31. 50 29.55 31.31 31.04 30.01 31.02 32.79 32.98 31.02 30.65 31.87 32.99 32.75 35.23 36. 12 60. 00 70.38 78. 35 70.12 49.67 47. 14 44.85 47.59 47.83 47. 35 50. 06 52.20 52.51 46. 55 43. 38 44. 36 45. 10 43. 86 48. 83 52. 06 53.37 53.94 53.72 54. 64 59.49 60.25 59. 93 61.09 39.13 39.47 39. 00 39. 14 35.30 35.34 35.36 35.57 51.85 52. 08 52. 51 53. 51 1 Averages of daily closing prices. Includes all the stocks (more than 1,475) listed on the NYSE. s Includes 30 stocks. <6 Includes 500 stocks. Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesds ty closing prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. 2 1976 St ATlH <}Tf1 Dow& Poor's Jones composite Dividend- Earningsindustrial index ratio ratio average 3 (1941-43= 10) 2 4 753. 20 83. 22 3.83 6.46 3.14 5.41 884.76 98.29 2. 84 950. 71 109. 20 5. 50 923. 88 3.06 7. 12 107. 43 759. 37 82.85 4.47 11.60 802. 49 4.31 86. 16 659. 09 5.07 72.56 724. 89 80. 10 4.61 765. 06 4. 42 83.78 iaio 4.34 790. 93 84.72 836. 56 90. 10 4.08 845. 70 4.02 92.40 8.28 856. 28 4.02 92.49 815. 51 85.71 4.36 818. 28 84.67 4. 39 9.08 831. 26 4. 22 88.57 845. 51 90.07 4. 07 840. 80 4. 14 88.70 929. 34 96.86 3. 80 971. 70 100. 64 3. 67 976. 57 993. 73 980. 73 998. 50 99.72 100. 89 100. 52 102. 41 3.71 3. 67 3. 68 3. 59 NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBT The estimated budget deficits for fiscal 1976 and 1977 are $76.0 billion and $43.0 billion, respectively. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 450 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 450 RECHPTS AND OUTLAYS 400 400 350 350 300 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 50 50 SURPLUS (+) OR DEFICIT (-) -50 -50 -100 -100 1969 1968 1970 1971 1972 1973 1975 1974 1976 1977 FISCAiYiARS COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Federal debt ( end of period) Period Fiscal year: 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 _„ 1975 1976 2 "Transition2 quarter2 1977 ._ Cumulative totals for first 8 months: Fiscal year 1975 Fiscal year 1976 1 Excludes 8 Receipts Total i Held by the public 149. 6 153.7 187.8 isas 178.8 184.5 -8.7 — 25. 2 3.2 341. 3 369.8 367.1 267.5 290.6 279.5 193.7 188.4 208. 6 232.2 264. 9 196.6 211.4 231.9 246.5 268. 4 -2. 8 -23.0 — 23. 2 -14.3 -as 382.6 409.5 437. 3 468.4 486. 2 284.9 304. 3 323. 8 343. 0 346. 1 281. 0 297.5 81.9 351. 3 324.6 373.5 98.0 394.2 -43.6 -76.0 -16.1 -43.0 544. 1 633. 9 652.8 719. 5 396. 9 484. 4 5044 558.2 184.6 185.9 207.9 245. 1 —23.3 —59.2 510.7 604.8 369.0 463.0 non-interest-bearing public debt securities held by IMF. Estimates from The Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 19T7. 32 Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION Fiscal 1976 budget receipts are estimated at $297.5 billion and budget outlays at $373.5 billion. The corresponding figures for fiscal 1977 are $351.3 billion and $394.2 billion, respectively. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 300 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OUTLAW 300 250 250 200 200 NONDEFENSE \ -J-—•*• -*«*-""" 150 150 NATIONAL DEFENSE 100 50 100 1969 1970 1971 50 J_ J_ 1968 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 COUNCIt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCfS, DIPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Receipts Outlays National defense Health Depart- InternaInand tional ment of income terest Other Total Defense, affairs security military Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes Other 149. 6 153. 7 187. 8 61. 5 68. 7 87. 2 34. 0 28. 7 36. 7 54. 1 56. 3 63. 9 158,3 178.8 184.5 69. 1 79.4 80. 2 67. 5 77.4 77.9 4. 6 193. 7 188.4 208.6 232. 2 264.9 90. 4 86.2 94.7 103.2 119. 0 32. 8 26. 8 32.2 36.2 38.6 70, 5 75. 4 81.7 92.8 107,4 196. 6 211.4 231. 9 246.5 268.4 79.3 76.8 77.4 75. 1 78.6 1975 1 1976 Transition1 quarter * 1977 281.0 297.5 81.9 351. 3 122.4 130.8 40.0 153.6 40.6 40. 1 49. 5 8.4 118.0 126. 7 33.5 148.2 324.6 373.5 98.0 394.2 Cumulative totals for first 8 months: Fiscal year 1975___ Fiscal year 1976... 184. 6 185.9 90. 7 88.9 18.2 18.4 75.7 78.6 207.9 245. 1 Period Fiscal year; 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 Total »Estimates from The Budget of the United Statei Government, Fiscal Year 1877. Total 3.8 37.6 43.4 49. 0 12.5 13.8 15.8 34.3 37.7 35.7 77. 2 74. 5 75.2 73.3 77.6 3.6 3.1 3.7 3.0 3.6 56. 1 70. 1 81.4 91. 8 106.5 18. 3 19. 6 20. 6 22. 8 28. 1 39.3 41.8 48. 8 53. 9 51.7 86.6 92.8 25.0 101. 1 85.0 89.8 24.5 99.6 4.4 5.7 1.3 6.8 136.3 160.6 41.0 171.5 31.0 34. 8 9.8 66.4 79. 6 20.8 73.5 57.3 59.2 56.0 57.9 2.5 2.8 85.2 105.5 20.4 22. 9 42.4 4.7 41. 3 548 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Bodge*. 33 ;DERAL SECTOR, ACCOUNTS rhe fourth quarter, expenditures rose $10.4 billion, compared to an $11.5 billion increase in the quarter before, th receipts up $9.4 billion in the fourth quarter, the deficit rose by $1.0 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 440 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 440 160 160 SURPLUS -S- mm- mm® i-iii ®ii*| Y/^ WA ^ ^ """"i -40 IIP I Iii -40 ^ -80 -80 i DEFICIT -120 -120 1969 1968 1970 1971 1972 1973 i?7 5 1974 i 1976 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal (jrovernm ent receipts Period Ifederal (jovernm ent expenditures GrantsSubsidies Less: Purin-aid Wage Indirect Contriless Personal Corporate business butions chases Trans- to State Net current accruals tax and Total nontax profits tax and Total of goods fer pay- and interest surplus of less for tax nontax social inand ments local paid Govern- disreceipts accruals governservices accruals surance ment en- bursements terprises ments Fiscal year: 1973 240.0 1974 271.6 1975 281. 5 1976 ! 307.4 1977 V 364,7 Calendar year: 1972 227.5 1973 257.9 1974 288.4 1975" 282.4 Surplus or deficit (-), national income and product accounts 107.3 122.9 126.4 136.4 160.4 40. 5 43. 6 40. 6 47.5 58.2 20.7 21.4 22.4 24.0 24.3 71.5 83.7 92.0 99. 5 121. 8 256.1 27a7 328.7 378.7 404.5 101. 5 104.5 117.6 130. 0 139.4 89.7 104.7 134.8 158.7 168.2 40.4 41. 6 48.3 57. 8 59. 3 15.9 19.8 22.0 26.0 32.0 7.9 5.7 6.2 5.6 —. 1 -.4 .0 .0 -16. 1 — 7. 1 — 47.2 — 71.3 -39.8 108. 2 114.7 131.4 125.6 36.6 42.5 45. 9 39. 1 20.0 21.2 21.7 24.2 62. 8 79.4 89.4 93.5 244.7 264.8 300. 1 356.9 102. 1 102. 0 111.7 123. 2 83.2 95. 8 117. 7 149.2 37.5 40.6 43.9 54.3 14.6 18.2 21.0 23.4 7.8 8.2 5.2 6.8 .5 .0 —.5 .0 -17.3 -6.9 -11.7 -74.5 II__. 285. 6 III_. 299.2 IV__. 293. 1 124.2 129.5 134. 6 137.4 43. 1 45. 8 51. 8 42.9 21.3 21. 7 22. 1 21.7 87.2 88. 6 90. 8 91. 1 281. 1 293.5 307.2 318, 6 106.1 108. 9 113. 6 118. 2 107.0 114.9 121.2 127. 8 42.7 43.4 44. 0 45.4 19. 9 20. 8 21. 4 22. 0 5.3 5.0 .0 _. 6 -1. 5 .0 -5.3 -7.9 -8.0 -25. 5 1975: !____ 283.6 II— 250. 1 III_. 293.3 IV *_ 302.7 137.6 99.3 130.5 135.2 32. 1 35. 5 43.4 45.6 22. 3 23.5 25.5 25.4 91. 7 91.9 93.9 96.4 337.4 352.3 363. 8 374.2 119.4 119.2 124.2 129. 9 139. 2 150. 5 152. 5 154. 5 50. 1 52. 8 56. 8 57.4 22.4 22. 6 23.4 25.3 6.3 .0 .0 .0 .0 -53.7 -102.2 -70.5 -71.5 1974: !____ 275.7 1 Estimates. 34 9. 1 5. 5 5. 1 7. 1 6.9 7.0 0.5 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES [1967=100] Coiisumer prices (unadjusted) Iiidustrial production (seasonally iidjustecI) Period United States 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1974: I II___ Ill— IV.. 1975: I— II... III.. IV.. 1976: I Jan. Feb. 111 107 107 115 126 125 114 125 125 125 121 112 110 114 118 Canada Japan 111 114 123 131 143 146 139 149 147 146 143 139 139 138 139 GerFrance many Italy 127 135 137 142 153 150 140 153 152 150 146 142 138 137 144 111 118 115 119 134 141 1 127 145 147 140 131 129 125 123 1 131 133 152 156 167 197 189 168 201 195 186 175 161 167 172 172 118 124 132 142 150 154 140 156 156 158 147 142 138 138 141 United United King- States dom 120 120 i Annual figure is 11-month average; 1975 TV figure is October-November average. 109 111 111 113 122 120 114 116 121 122 119 118 113 112 113 Canada Japan GerFrance many 110 116 121 125 133 148 161 141 145 150 154 157 160 163 166 109 112 116 121 130 145 160 138 142 147 151 154 157 163 166 111 120 127 133 149 183 205 171 180 186 194 197 204 207 211 111 117 124 131 141 160 179 152 158 163 168 173 177 181 185 105 109 115 121 130 139 147 136 139 140 142 144 147 148 150 167 167 168 168 215 188 151 152 Italy 104 109 114 121 134 160 187 147 154 164 174 180 185 188 194 United Kingdom 110 118 128 138 150 174 217 163 173 176 185 196 214 224 232 237 Sources: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce. Bureau of Economic Analysis, in Business Conditions Digest. U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Mere landise imports Gerteral imp orts 3 Merchtandise e xporfcs Domestic3 exports Period Total domesFood, Crude Food, Crude Manubever- mate- Manutic and 2 bever- mate2 facfacTotal foreign Total i ages, ages, rials rials tured extured and to- and and to- and ports bacco fuels goods bacco fuels goods F.a.s. valu e 5 Custorris value Monthly average : 1973 1974 5,902 8,159 5,811 8,045 1,078 1,269 895 1,317 3,728 5,294 5,790 8,416 1974 1975 1975: Mar___ Apr May___ June July___ Aug — Sept.__ Oct Nov Dec_-_ 1976: Jan Feb____ 8,159 8,933 8,685 8,648 8,222 8,716 8,894 8,979 9, 146 9,225 9,409 9,250 9,103 8,800 8,045 8,808 1,269 1,400 1,375 1,362 1, 174 1,215 1,295 1,380 1,367 1,501 1,493 1,404 1,510 1,337 1,317 1,266 1,324 1, 197 1,217 1, 145 1,248 1,299 1,242 1,199 1,342 1, 186 1,223 1, 138 5,294 5,917 5,605 5,735 5,591 5,991 6,063 5,983 6,063 6,267 6, 168 6,296 5,971 6, 035 8,354 8,012 7,467 7,959 7,266 7,104 7,832 7,877 8,205 8, 170 8,204 8,526 9, 176 8, 941 1 Total excludes Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program. 2 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. s Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. Total (c.i.f. value) 4 Mer<shandise trade balance Exports Ex(f.a.s.) ports Exports less (f.a.s.) (f.a.s.) less imless ports im- imports (c.i.f.) (cusports toms (f.a.s.) value) 770 1, 120 892 2,653 F.a.s. value 5 892 2, 672 827 2,716 826 1,887 785 2,952 742 2,489 858 1,976 819 2, 706 777 2,715 1,020 3,005 855 2,912 867 2,896 825 2,852 872 3,233 889 2, 913 3,750 4,684 6,131 9,000 112 -257 -195 -229 -841 4,602 4,257 4,395 4, 161 3,894 3,990 4, 129 4, 178 4,060 4,289 4, 365 4, 582 4, 714 4, 782 9,000 8,618 8,039 8,547 7,817 7,652 8,413 8,479 8,830 8, 795 8,830 9, 166 9, 880 9, 593 -257 854 1, 130 615 869 1,524 1,001 1,053 874 978 1, 132 667 -132 -213 -195 921 1,219 689 955 1,613 1,062 1, 102 941 1,054 1,206 724 -73 -141 -841 315 646 101 405 1,064 481 500 316 429 580 84 -776 -793 * C.i.f. (cost, insurance, and freight) import value at first port of entry in the United States. Data for 1973 are estimates. 6 F.a.s. (free alongside ship) value basis: at U.S. port of exportation for exports and at foreign port of exportation for imports. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. BALANCES ON GOODS, SERVICES, AND TRANSFERS The current account surplus, at $3.0 billion, in the fourth quarter was $0.4 billion below that in the third quarter. There was little change in the fourth quarter merchandise trade surplus from that in the third quarter and a small decline in net receipts on investment incomes and other services. BILLIONS OF DOUARS 4 IALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES BALANCE ON CURRENT ACCOUNT -2 -3 1969 1975 SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNOt, OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars, quarterly data seasonally adjusted] Mesrehandise Period . 1970. 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 » Ex- ports Im- ports 12 Net bal- Milit?ITJ transactions Direct expenditures Private 3 — 3, 328 -3, 355 -2, 893 -3,621 -2, 317 -2, 158 -819 3,471 3,631 5,659 6,208 8, 188 13, 351 9,447 663 678 766 837 — 503 -646 -513 -498 4,014 2,745 3, 161 3,431 -769 -781 — 807 -872 -513 — 717 — 721 -741 886 936 960 1,049 2,992 78 -235 989 1,495 -1,303 949 3,274 -1,209 800 2, 111 -1,120 1,070 2,165 -1,167 1,162 -354 — 409 — 50 2,173 2,241 2,559 2,474 -988 -841 -786 -802 -545 -370 -481 -573 1,092 1,041 1,120 959 2,873 -1, 175 4,936 -1,183 4,473 -1,027 4,218 -1,201 ance 22,464 -22,587 — 123 -1,166 1974: I II... 24,218 -25,677 -1,459 -1,324 Ill— 25,034 -27,349 -2,315 -1,279 IV.. 26,593 -27,973 -1,380 -1,335 27, 056 -25, 561 25, 843 -22, 569 26, 596 -24, 485 27, 689 -25, 524 —5 * Excludes military grants. 8 Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. 8 Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from net investment income and included in other services, net. 36 U.S. Government RemitBal- - tances, ance penon sions, goods and other and serv-1 uniices lateral transfers i 1,878 1,020 -2, 976 2,220 2,966 -3,248 2,537 -237 -3,642 2,803 -5,930 -3, 779 3,222 4, 177 -3,841 3,830 3,825 -7, 182 4,211 16, 500 -4, 583 Net travel Other and trans- servporta- ices,3 tion net expenditures Net balance Sales 36, 414 -35,807 607 -4, 856 1,528 42, 469 -39,866 2,603 -4, 855 1, 501 43, 311 -45,579 -2,268 -4, 819 1,926 ... 49, 388 -55,797 -6,409 -4, 784 1, 163 71, 379 -70,424 955 -4, 658 2,342 98, 309 -103,586 -5,277 — 5, 103 2,944 107, 184 -98,139 9,045 -4,800 3,981 1975: I II... III.. IV*- Netiinvestment i ncome 156 -1,763 -112 -2, 023 — 956 -2, 315 — 1,888 -3, 024 -3,009 -2, 862 -3,229 -2, 692 -3,417 -1,968 Balance on current account -1,956 -281 -3,879 -9,710 335 -3,357 11, 916 -2,966 26 -1,865 — 1,787 -1,265 -1,500 - 1, 088 -99 NOTE.—Series revised for 1975, Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1,698 3,753 3,446 3,017 U.S. OVERALL BALANCES ON INTERNATIONALTRANSACTIONS In the fourth quarter, the current account and long-term capital transactions were approximately in balance, compared with a surplus of $1.4 billion in the third quarter. In addition, liquid private capital flows switched from a $4.6 billion inflow in the third quarter to a $1.3 billion outflow in the fourth quarter. BILLIONS Of DOLLARS BJUJONS OF DOLLARS BALANCE ON CURRENT ACCOUNT AND LONG-TERM CAPITAL 1975 1966 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCfl. OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [MM ons of dollars; quajrterly dtita season ally adjusted, excepit as note<1] Period Long-ter m capital Balance Nonflows3, net liquid on current shortaccount term U.S. and long- private 2 capital GovernPrivate term ment 1 capital flows, net 2 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 9 1974: III... IV... 1975: I II... III. IV *__ -1,949 -44 -3, 949 -640 -2, 045 -1,434 -3, 760 — 482 -2,376 -4, 383 -10,637 -2, 347 -1,334 -69 -11, 113 -1,542 177 — 1,490 -977 -4, 238 1, 118 -8,463 -10,702 -12,936 - 1, 726 -8, 789 1,401 -2,819 83 -2, 157 -3, 574 -1,458 -860 -5,570 -6, 529 -2, 305 -469 -2, 206 -977 1,949 -350 -2,421 982 -966 -477 -1, 573 1,396 - 1, 893 -430 — 2, 591 — 4 -1,909 Allocations of special drawing rights (SDR) Errors and omissions, net — 1,492 -6,081 — 476 -3,851 867 717 -9,698 -21, 965 710 -1,884 -13,829 — 2,436 -7, 651 4,698 -18,940 4,556 3,138 1,135 -3,897 1,236 -7,598 2,485 3,457 462 446 936 439 1, 223 690 1 Excludes liabilities to foreign official reserve agencies. 2 Private foreigners exclude the IMF, but include other international and regional organizations. * Includes liabilities to foreign official agencies reported by U.S. Government sad U.S. banks and U.S. liabilities to the IMF arising from reversible gold sales to, and gold deposits with, the United States. * Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDR), convertible currencies, and the U.S. gold tranche position in the IMF. Minus sign indicates increase. k * Includes increases (to millions) as follows: 1969, $67 due to revaluation of the penman mark in Oct. 1969; 1971, $28 due to dollar value of foreign currencies revalued to reflect market exchange rates as of Dec. 31, 1971; 1972, $1,016 due to Net liquidity balance Changes in lia- Changes Liquid Official bilities in U.S. private reserve to official capital trans- foreign reserve flows, actions official asset?, net 2 balance agencies, net 4 3 net U.S. official reserve assets, net (unadjusted, end of period)3 8,820 2,739 - 1, 552 -1, 187 16, 964 -5,988 -9,839 7,362 2,477 14, 487 -7, 788-29, 753 27, 405 2, 348 12, 167 3,475 -10,354 10, 322 32 13, 151 2,343 -5,308 5,099 209 14, 378 10,543 -8,397 9,831 -1,434 15, 883 -5,601 -2,463 3 3 070 -607 16, 226 4, 014 117 886 -1,003 15, 893 2, 730 -4, 868 4,731 137 15, 883 -6, 623 -3, 166 3,491 -325 16, 256 -2,232 -1,770 1,799 -29 16, 242 4, 569 5,008 -4, 666 — 342 16, 291 -1, 315 -2, 538 2,450 89 16, 226 change in par value ol the dollar on May 8,1972; and 1973, $1,436 due to change in par value of the dollar on Oct. 18,1973. Beginning July 1974, SDR and reserve position in the IMF based on new method of valuation. On a pre-July basis, reserve assets for Sept. 30, 1974 are $15,949 million, for Dec. 31, 1974 $15,812 million, for Mar. 31, 1975 $16,105 million, for June 30,1975 $16,134 million, for Sept. 30,1975 $16,455 million, and for Dec. 31, 1975 $16,366 million. NOTE.—Series revised for 1975, Sources: Department of Commerce CBiiream of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE POSTAGE AND PEES PAID U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 378 DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS WASHINGTON. D.C. 2O4O2 OFFICIAL BUSINESS First-Class Mail Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page Gross National Product .. ~ ~. ~ Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures... Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits...~ Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment —• -- —— —~ —• ....-. ~ . .._.____.__ .. _._._._._.... — —~ • • — ——~ — .-.. ~ ~ ~ .-..-. ~ .. -. ~. •.... — _ . _ _ _ . -.... .._......-.....-. ....-..-. — .~-• • — - « 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 ? 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force — ———~ Selected Unemployment Rates ..«-..-...._.-..-..-., ~. ~ -. ~ Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs.... _ _... -. ~ ~ -. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Nonagricultural Employment • - • ••• • • -• -• -• -• • • — -• — — — — — — — — -« Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries .,~. „....._..-._._._. _^ _.,_. .^ _. .^ Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries -..-.-..-..-..-..-..-...., . Productivity and Related Data, Private Economy .. H 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction.... _ _* _ New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates .... Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade. ..-. ~ . . . . . -. Manufacturers* Shipments, Inventories, and New Orders ~ . ... _ ....-..-..-..-. ~ -. ~ .—. ...-.....-.__ .^ _ _ ~ .-....-. 17 18 19 19 20 21 ^ ~~~ — — — — • • — »- ~ — ^ ... ~ -.-....... ~ ~ ... -. —. . — — -. — ~ _. ^ 22 23 24 24 25 PRICES Wholesale Prices.. _ . Consumer Prices.... ^ „. Changes in Wholesale Prices. Changes in Consumer Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers - -. MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock •.._._.... Private Liquid Asset Holdings—Nonfinancial Investors .-....-. ^.. Consumer Installment Credit -.. ~ . . . -. ~. ~ -. ^.».. -. ^. ^ Bank Loans, Investments, and Reserves ^ ^. ^. ^. ,~ ^. ^. ^. « -. ^. ^. Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business . „ ^. „ , ... _ Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations _. _. ^. « « .~. M M ^, ^. _ Interest Rates and Bond Yields .-. ^ ^ ^. ~ ^. ^ ^. ^ ~ ^. « ^. ^. ~ ^ ^ ^. ^. ~ ^ ^ ^ ^ Common Stock Prices and Yields ~. —. . ... -. ^. ^..-. ^. ^. « ^. -. 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays and Debt Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis -.» ,-. _ _. « ^. ^ 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries..^. U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports. . . _. _ .- ._ *_ -. _ _* ^. _ « -. « « .. -. « ... ^... ^ U.S. Balances on Goods, Services, and Transfers.-. _ — . M _..-..-..-..-..-.._..-..U.S. Overall Balances on International Transactions .~, -. ».. 35 35 36 37 NOTE.—The revision of "Economic Indicators", which began in the January issue, is virtually completed in the March issue. Some minor changes may be made in the next few issues. 38 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402 Price 85 cents (single copv). Subscription price: $10.10 per year; $2.55 additional for foreign mailing. H.5. G O V E R N M E N T P R I N T I N G OFFICE. !»75
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