Full text of Economic Indicators : March 1974
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\)3d Congress, 2d Session Economic Indicators March 1974 Prepared for the joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1974 (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th PATMAN, Texas, Chairman Wisconsin, Vice Chairman WILLIAM SENATE 01 REPRESENTATIVES (Missouri) HENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin) W. S. (Pennsylvania) L. CAREY (New York) B. WIDNALL (New Jersey) B. CONABLE, jr. (New York) J. (Ohio) BEN B. (Georgia) (Alabama) (Arkansas) (Connecticut) J. W. H. M. Jr. (Texas) JACOB K. JAVTTS (New York) H. B. (Kansas) S. JOHN R. STARK, Executive Director LOUGHLIN F. McHuGH, Senior Economist RICHARD F. KAUFMAN, General Counsel OF Chairman WILLIAM J. GARY L. Economic Indicators prepared under supervision of LAW 120— M. 23? — IST [S J, ResB 551 To ^j /& the "Economic House of of the United be of the the to a be to to the Clerk5 at of the House, the the of to the the of be 23? 1949. of in assembled, "Economic and a of Congress; the the at of the House of copies to to the of for to depository to for to the public. Production Branch, Office of the or by Is ($1.75 OF at D.C to of is $3*60 11 it at an for year* 0/ at 55 for a TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, NATION'S INCOME, EXPENDITURE, AND SAVING Gross national product Increased $33.0 billion In the fourth quarter of 1973 to a seasonally of $1,337.5 billion, according to current estimates. The Increase for the third quarter was $32.5 billion. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] 1Jrovernine at Persons Disposab le personsii income Period Surplus or Less : Equals: deficit Less: Tax TransTransand PurEquals: Total fers, fers, nontax expend- interest, ofchases income Net receipts interest^ and receipts itures and and or and product SUD— SUD— accruals 2 si dies 2 services accounts 56. 2 60. 2 49. 7 548 263. 5 296.7 302.5 322. 0 368. 2 418. 6 700. 2 719. 2 734 1 752. 6 52. 9 45. 9 45. 8 54 4 779. 4 795. 6 816, 0 816. 825. 2 50. 0 51. (03 51. 51. 1I 67. 1I 1968 1969_ 1970 1971 1972 1973^ 591. 0 634 4 691. 7 746. 0 797. 0 882.5 15. 1 16. 7 17. 9 18. 7 20. 7 23. 7 575. 9 617.7 673. 8 727. 3 776. 2 858.8 536, 2 579. 5 617. 6 667. 2 726. 5 804 0 1972: I II Hill IV... 772.8 785.4 800. 9 828. 7 19. 8 20. 3 21. 0 21. 7 753. 1 765. 1 779. 9 807. 0 1973: I II nil" III— 851. 5 869. 7 1 891. 1 917. 8 917.8 22. 1 23. 11 1 24 1 24 25. 6 829. 4 846. 6 846. 867. 0 867. 892. 2 iv*__ rv— 39.8 sa 2 Business Period E xpenditur es N et receipts PerEquals: Less: sonal Interest Total Personal saving paid and exclud- consumpor tion ing transfer i disinterest expendpayitures saving and ments (— ) transto forfers eigners 70. 7 77.9 93. 2 105. 9 115. 9 129. 9 192.7 218.8 209. 4 216. 2 252. 2 288.7 270.3 287.9 312. 7 340. 2 370. 9 407. 1 70.7 77. 9 93. 2 105. 9 115. 9 129. 9 199,6 210. 0 219. 5 234 3 255.0 277. 1 356. 8 363.4 370. 6 381. 9 111. 9 113. 0 113. 9 125. 0 244 9 250. 4 256. 7 256. 9 362. 367. 368. 385. 2 2 5 7 111. 9 113. 0 113.9 125. 0 250. 3 254 2 254 7 260.7 -5.4 -3.9 2,0 402. 7 414 77 414 425. 03 432. 03 125. 2 127.' 127. 8 131. 7 135. 3 277. 5 286. 9 293. 3 296.7 393. 8 403. 2 410. 7 420. 9 125.2 127. 8 131. 7 135.3 268, 6 275. 3 279.0 285.6 1L 6 14 S 11.1 a8 -10. 1 -18, 1 -2.8 11; 5 -as a§ Iiiternation al Net Net e xports of goods and service s Excess of transfers Gross Excess to fortransfers Gross of private retained domestic eigners or investearn-3 by perEquals: of net ment investLess: ings sons and Exports Imports Net exports ment 4 (-) Governexports ment 1968 19691970 1971 1972 1973" 95. 4 97. 0 97. 0 111. 8 124 4 135.2 126. 0 139. 0 136. 3 153. 2 178. 3 202. 1 — 30. 6 -42. 0 -39.3 — 41. 4 -53. 9 -66. 9 2 9 2.9 3. 2 3.6 3. 7 3. 6 50. 6 55.5 82. 9 66. 3 73.5 102. 0 48. 1 53. 6 59. 3 65. 5 78. 1 96. 2 2. 5 1. 9 3. 6 .8 -4 6 5. 8 0. 4 1. 0 —.4 2. 8 8. 4 -2.2 1972: I II III IV _ 117. 4 124 1 124 5 131. 6 167. 5 174 7 181. 5 189. 4 -50. 1 — 50. 5 -57.0 -57.8 3. 9 3. 8 3. 8 3. 5 70. 3 69. 9 74 0 79. 7 75. 8 75, 6 77.7 83.2 5. 5 -5. 7 -3.8 -3. 5 9.4 9. 4 7. 6 7. 0 1973: I II III— IV 131. 5 132. 0 136.9 140.5 194 5 198.2 202. 0 213.9 -63.0 — 66. 2 — 65. 1 -73.4 3. 0 3. 3 3. 5 45 89.7 97. 2 104 5 116. 4 89. 7 94 4 97.0 103.6 .0 2. 8 7.6 12. 8 3. 0 .5 -4 0 -8. 3 1 Personal income (p. 5) less personal tax and nontax payments (fines, penalties, etc.). 2 Government transfer payments to persons, foreign net transfers by Government, net interest paid by government, subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises, and disbursements less wage accruals. 3 Capital consumption allowances, corporate inventory valuation adjustment, undistributed corporate profits, and private wage accruals less disbursements. Does not include retained earnings of unincorporated business, which are included in disposable personal income. — G. 8 _ Total income or 866. 9 936.3 983. 5 1, 058. 8 1, 156. 6 1, 286. 3 1, 1, 1, 1, 119. 143. 164 199. 2 4 9 1 1, 241. 4 1, 268. 9 1, 300, 8 1, 333. 9 Gross S tails- | national 1 product discrep- j or ancy expenditure ~~2. 7 —6 1 -6.4 -3.4 — 1. 5 2, 8 864 2 930.3 977. 1 1, 055. 5 1, 155. 2 1, 2S9. 1 — 6. 7 1, 112. 5 -1.0 1 1, 142, 4 1.6 1, 166. 5 . 2 ! 1, 199. 2 1. 1 3.2 a 71 3.4 * Private business investment, purchases of capital goods by institutions, and residential housing. ^ Net foreign investment less capital grants received by United sign changed. Source: Department of Commerce. 1, 242. 5 1, 272. 0 1, 304 5 1, 337. 5 nonprofit GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OR EXPENDITURE In the fourth quarter of 1973, gross national product (seasonally adjusted) rose at an annual rate of 10.5 pera reflecting an inflation rate of 8.8 percent and an increase of 1.6 percent in real GNP. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ] 1,400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,400 1,200 1,000 GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES 200 200 NET EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES I I GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT J I 1967 I I I J I 1970 1969 1968 Government ]Durchases of gooc s and Total Persona] Gross Net services conTotal gross private exports sump- domestic of goods national gross Federal State product national tion investand Total and National in 1958 product expend- ment services 1 Total defense Other local itures dollars Billions <if dollars; quarterlyr data at £seasonall y adjust*id annual rates Period _ . 581. 1 617.8 658. 1 675.2 706.6 725.6 722.5 745.4 790. 7 837.4 768. 0 785. 6 796. 7 812. 3 829. 3 834. 3 841.3 844- 6 632.4 684. 9 749. 9 793.9 864. 2 930. 3 977. 1 1, 055. 5 1, 155. 2 1, 289. 1 1, 112. 5 1, 142. 4 1, 166. 5 1, 199. 2 1, 242. 5 1, 272. 0 1, 304. 5 1, 337. 5 401.2 432.8 466. 3 492. 1 536. 2 579.5 617. 6 667. 2 726. 5 804.0 700. 2 719. 2 734. 1 752.6 779. 4 795.6 816.0 825. 2 94.0 108. 1 121. 4 116. 6 126. 0 139.0 136. 3 153. 2 178. 3 202. 1 167. 5 174.7 181. 5 189.4 194. 5 198.2 202.0 213.9 1 This category corresponds closely with budget outlays for national defense, shown on p. 36. 3 Gross national product in current dollars divided by gross national product in 1958 dollars. 1973 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE.- DEPARTMENT OF CO/AMERCE 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1972: I II. III IV 1973: I II III IV I 1972 1971 128.7 137.0 5. 3 156. 8 5.2 180. 1 2. 5 199. 6 1. 9 210. 0 3. 6 219. 5 . 8 234. 3 -4. 6 255. 0 5.8 277. 1 -5. 5 250. 3 -5. 7 254. 2 -3.8 254. 7 -3. 5 260. 7 . 0 268. 6 2.8 275. 3 7. 6 279.0 12. 8 285. 6 8.5 6.9 65.2 66.9 77. 8 90. 7 98. 8 98. 8 96. 2 98. 1 104. 4 106. 6 106. 0 106. 7 102.3 102. 7 105. 5 107.3 106.8 106. 8 50. 0 50. 1 60. 7 72.4 78. 3 78. 4 74. 6 71. 6 74. 4 73. 9 76. 5 76. 6 71. 9 72. 4 74. 3 74, 2 74.2 73. 0 Source: Department of Commerce. 15.2 16. 8 17. 1 18. 4 20. 5 20. 4 21. 6 26. 5 30. 1 32. 7 29. 5 30. 1 30. 4 30. 3 31. 2 33. 1 32. 7 33. 8 63.5 70.1 79. 0 89. 4 100. 8 111.2 123. 3 136. 2 150. 5 170. 5 144. 3 147. 5 152. 4 158. 0 163. 0 168. 0 172.2 178. 8 Implicit price deflator for total GNP, 1958= 1002 108. 85 110. 86 113. 94 117. 59 122. 30 128. 20 135. 24 141. 60 146. 10 153. 94 144. 85 145. 42 146. 42 147. 63 149. 81 152. 46 155. 06 158. 36 "1TIONAL INCOME idHonal income increase of $28% billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter reflectedsizable -reases in compensation of employees, farm proprietors' income, and net interest. Other major sources of national income recorded in small gains. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,100 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,100 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1,000 1,000 900 900 800 800 700 700 COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES \ 600 600 500 500 CORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT PROPRIETORS' AND RENTAL INCOME 100 100 NET INTEREST J 1967 L J 1968 1969 1970 L J 1972 1971 L 1973 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Total national income Period 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968__ _ 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973" 518. 1 564. 3 620. 6 653. 6 711. 1 766. 0 800.5 859.4 941.8 1, 054. 1 1972: I II III IV 911. 928. 949. 978. ___ 1973: I IL__ III IV* 1 2 Includes _ _ 0 3 2 6 1, 015. 0 1, 038. 2 1, 067. 4 1} 095. 8 Compensation of employees 1 Proprieto rs' income Farm 2 Net interest Corporal ;e profits and inventory va luation ac [justment Total Profits before taxes Inventory valuation adjustment 365.7 393.8 435. 5 467. 2 514. 6 566. 0 603.9 644. 1 707. 1 785.2 12. 1 14.8 16. 1 14. 8 14.7 16. 7 16. 9 16. 8 20. 2 26.8 40.2 42.4 45. 2 47.3 49. 5 50. 5 50. 0 51. 9 54. 0 57. 5 18.0 19.0 20. 0 21. 1 21. 2 22. 6 23. 9 24. 5 24. 1 25. 1 15.8 18.2 21. 4 24. 4 26. 9 30.5 36. 5 42. 0 45. 2 50.4 66.3 76. 1 82. 4 78.7 84. 3 79. 8 69. 2 80. 1 91. 1 109. 2 66.8 77.8 84. 2 79. 8 87. 6 84. 9 74. 0 85. 1 98. 0 126. 4 -0.5 -1.7 -1.8 -1. I -3.3 -5.1 -4. 8 -4.9 -6.9 -17. 3 684. 699. 713. 731. 3 6 1 2 19. 5 19. 9 19. 8 21. 8 53. 1 53. 3 54. 3 55. 3 24. 1 22. 6 24. 9 24. 9 43. 9 44. 8 45.7 46. 6 86.2 88.0 91. 5 98. 8 92. 8 94. 8 98. 4 106. 1 -6.6 -6. 7 -6. 9 -7. 3 757. 4 774. 9 794.0 814 7 24. 3 24. 4 27. 1 31. 3 56. 3 57. 1 57.9 58. 5 24. 7 24. 6 25.3 25. 7 47. 9 49. 4 51. 1 53. 0 104. 3 107. 9 112. 0 112. 6 119. 6 128. 9 129. 0 128, 1 -15.4 -21. 1 — 17.0 — 15. 5 employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 4.) Excludes farm profits of corporations engaged in farming and therefore differs from net farm income (including net inventory change) on p. 6 which includes such profits. Business and professional Hental income of per- Source: Department of Commerce. SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $6.6 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in February after a decline in January. Tl February rise reflected higher payrolls/ interest payments, and transfer payments, which were partly offset by a drot in farm income. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 1,000 1,000 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 400 200 200 1968 1974 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Wage Rental Total Other Propriet<Drs' income income and Transfer Divi- Personal personal salary labor 1 2 Business interest payof dends income disburseincome Farm and pro- persons income ments 1 fessional ments Less: Peronagrisonal con- N cultural tributions personal for social 3 insurance income 587. 2 629. 3 688. 9 750. 9 808. 3 863. 5 939. 2 1,035. 4 394.5 423. 1 464. 9 509. 7 542. 0 573. 3 627. 8 691.5 20. 7 22. 3 25. 4 28.4 32. 2 36. 6 40. 7 44. 9 16. 1 14. 8 14. 7 16. 7 16. 9 16. 8 20.2 26.8 45. 2 47. 3 49. 5 50.5 50. 0 51. 9 54. 0 57. 5 20. 0 21. 1 21. 2 22. 6 23. 9 24. 5 24. 1 25. 1 20. 8 21. 4 23. 6 24. 3 24. 7 25. 1 26. 0 27. 8 43. 6 48. 0 52. 9 59. 3 67. 5 73. 0 78. 0 87. 5 44. 1 51. 8 59. 6 65. 8 79.1 93. 2 103. 0 117. 5 17. 7 20. 5 22.8 26.3 28. 0 30. 9 34. 7 43. 1 566. 3 609. 4 668. 8 728. 3 784. 8 839. 8 911. 5 1, 000. 5 989. 1 997. 4 1, 003. 3 1, Oil. 6 1, 018. 7 1, 026. 6 1, 035. 6 1. 047. 3 1, 058. 5 I, 068. 5 Oct .1 , 079. 4 Nov Dec 1, 089. 0 1974: Jan 1, 087. 0 Feb'_- 1, 093. 6 661. 7 667. 2 671. 1 677. 6 682. 0 688. 2 693. 2 698. 9 706.0 711. 2 717. 8 722. 6 721. 8 725. 8 43. 0 43. 3 43.6 43. 9 44. 2 44. 5 44. 8 45. 3 45. 8 46. 2 46. 7 47. 1 47. 5 47. 9 24. 0 24. 3 24. 6 24. 2 24. 4 24. 6 25. 9 27. 1 28. 3 29. 9 31. 6 32. 4 29. 6 28. 9 56. 1 56.3 56. 4 56. 8 57. 1 57. 3 57. 8 58. 0 58. 1 58. 5 58. 7 58. 6 58. 6 58. 8 24. 8 24. 8 24. 6 24. 3 24. 6 24. 9 25. 0 25. 3 25. 5 25. 6 25. 7 25. 7 25. 8 25. 8 26. 8 26. 9 27. 0 27.3 27. 3 27. 4 27. 6 28. 2 28.3 28. 5 28. 7 29.8 29. 5 29. 4 81. 9 82. 6 83.4 84. 5 85. 7 86. 5 87. 8 89.0 90. 3 91. 5 92. 6 94. 0 95. 3 96. 4 112. 5 113. 8 114. 5 115. 3 115. 9 116. 0 116. 9 119. 0 120. 2 121. 1 121. 9 123. 0 125. 9 127. 6 41.7 41. 9 42. 0 42. 4 42. 5 42. 8 43. 4 43. 6 43. 9 44. 0 44. 3 44. 3 47. 0 47. 1 957. 4 965. 3 970. 9 979. 5 986. 4 994. 2 1, 001. 8 1, 012. 1 1, 021. 8 1, 030. 0 1, 039. 0 1, 047. 5 1, 048. 1 1, 055. 4 1973: Jan Feb Mar Apr May... June Julv Aug Sept * The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income difl'ers from compensation of employees (see p. 3) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. 2 Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; compensation for injuries; directors' fees; military reserve pay; and a few other minor items. 3 Personal income exclusive of net income of unincorporated farm enterprises, farm wages, agricultural net interest, and net dividends paid by agricultural corporations. Source: Department of Commerce. ^POSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME he fourth quarter of 1973, disposable personal income (seasonally adjusted) rose two and a half times as much ** personal outlays, resulting in a sharp rise in the saving rate to 7.3 percent. Real per capita disposable income rose only about 1A percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 000 1,000 900 800 DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 1973 1967 SOURCEi DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Less " PerPersonal sonal tax and Income nontax payments COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Per cap>ita disL ess: Perse nal outlayfS posable personal Equals: Persorlal consul]nption Equals: incc>me Disexpenditure 3 2 Personal posable Total saving personal personal Durable NonCurrent 1958 income outlays * goods durable Services dollars dollars °"oods Billions of dollars 587. 2 1967 629. 3 1968 _ __ 688. 9 1969 750. 9 1970 808. 3 1971 863.5 939.2 1973 1,035.4 75.4 83. 0 97. 9 116. 5 116. 6 117. 5 142. 2 152. 9 511. 9 546. 3 591. 0 634. 4 691. 7 746. 0 797. 0 882. 5 479. 3 soa o 551. 596. 635. 685. 747. 827. 2 2 5 8 2 8 70. 8 73. 1 84. 0 90. 8 91. 3 103. 6 117. 4 130. 8 Saving as percent of Population disposable (thou-3 personal sands) income (percent) Dollars 206.9 215. 0 230. 8 245. 9 263. 8 278. 7 299. 9 335. 9 32. 5 40. 4 39.8 38. 2 56. 2 60. 2 49. 7 54.8 2,604 2,749 2,945 3, 130 3,376 3,603 3, 816 4, 195 2,335 2,403 2,486 2, 534 2,610 2, 680 2, 767 2, 889 6. 4 7. 4 6. 7 6. 0 8. 1 8. 1 6.2 6. 2 196, 198, 200, 202, 204, 207, 208, 210, 560 712 706 677 879 045 842 404 0 2 6 0 52.9 45. 9 45. 8 54. 4 3,711 3, 765 3,831 3,955 2, 2, 2, 2, 716 740 771 841 6. 8 5. 8 5.7 6. 6 208, 208, 209, 209, 259 634 058 514 325. 0 332. 6 341.6 350. 0 50. 0 51. 0 51. 1 67. 1 4, 057 4, 137 4,231 4, 349 2,878 2, 877 2, 894 2,906 5. 9 5. 9 5.7 7.3 209, 210, 210, 211, 871 221 618 036 188. 6 204.0 221. 3 242. 7 262. 6 284.9 309. 2 337.3 Seasc natty adjiisted annu al rates 1972: I... 910. 8 II-- 926. 1 III- 943. 7 rv_. 976. 1 138. 140. 142. 147. 0 7 8 4 772. 785. 800. 828. 8 4 9 7 720.0 739. 5 755. 1 774. 3 111. 5 115. 1 120. 2 122. 9 288. 297. 302. 310. 1973: !-__ 996. 6 II.- 1,019.0 III _ 1,047.1 IV- 1,078.9 145. 149. 156. 161. 1 3 0 1 851. 869. 891. 917. 5 7 1 8 801. 5 818.7 840. 1 850. 8 132. 2 132. 8 132. 8 125.6 322. 2 330.3 341. 6 349. 6 includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers, and personal transfer payments to foreigners. ^ See p. 2 for total personal consumption expenditures. 8 9 3 7 300. 306. 311. 319. 8 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are for July 1; quarterly data are for middle of period, interpolated from monthly data. Source: Department of Commerce. FARM INCOME In the fourth quarter of 1973, net farm income excluding inventory change (seasonally adjusted) rose 19 percei and including inventory change 1 5 percent. Real net income per farm was 26 percent higher than a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 100 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 100 80 REALIZED GROSS FARM INCOME NET FARM INCOME INCLUDING NET INVENTORY CHANGE \ 20 20 1 I J I 1968 1970 1969 L 1973 1972 1971 SOURCE: DEPARTMB4T OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Personal income re ceived by total \"arm popu 1 at ion [ncome re ceived fro m farminc 3 Net t(D farm oper ators Realizejd gross Period 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1972: I II. _ III IV 1973: I II III IV _ From all sources From farm sources 24. 9 24. 0 25. 1 27. 6 28. 3 29. 2 34. 0 41. 3 14. 4 13. 1 13. 2 14. 9 15. 1 15. 2 18. 1 23. 8 From nonfarm sources Net inc ome per farm incl uding netg inventor}r change ProducCash tion ex- Exclud- Includreceipts penses ingnetin- ing net in- Current 1967 l from Total ventory ventory2 dollars dollars 4 marketchange change ings Billions (}f dollars Dol iars 33. 4 49. 7 43. 3 34. 8 49. 0 42. 7 44. 1 50. 9 36. 2 38. 8 55. 6 48. 1 41. 0 57. 8 50.5 44. 5 59. 7 52. 8 68.9 49. 2 60.7 64. 4 83. 4 90. 5 Seaso natty adj^ isted annu al 10. 5 10. 9 11. 9 12. 7 13. 2 14. 0 15. 9 17. 5 65. 8 68. 1 68. 7 72. 8 79. 8 82. 5 91.4 108.3 1 Cash receipts irom marketings, Government payments, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. '2 Inventory of crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year. Also, see footnote 2, p. 3. s Based on Census of Agriculture definition of a farm. The number of farms is held constant witbin a year. 1974 57. 8 59. 8 60. 5 64. 6 72. 4 75.5 84. 5 101. 2 47. 0 48. 8 49. 4 51. 5 55. 8 58. 0 65. 9 77. 9 16. 3 14. 2 14. 7 16. 8 16. 8 15. 2 19.7 26. 1 rates 16. 3 14. 9 14. 8 16. 9 16. 9 16. 9 20. 3 26.9 4, 990 4, 707 4, 828 5, 620 5, 725 5, 817 7, 089 9, 469 5, 092 4, 707 4,642 5, 156 5,022 4,888 5, 717 6, 862 18. 8 19. 3 19. 3 21. 3 24. 0 24. 5 25. 5 30. 4 19. 6 20. 0 19. 9 21. 9 24. 4 24. 7 27. 2 31. 4 6, 830 6, 970 6, 930 7 ? 630 8, 620 8, 720 9,610 11, 090 5, 600 5,620 5, 540 6, 060 6, 580 6, 410 6, 860 7,650 4 Income in current dollars divided by the index of prices paid by fanners for family living items on a 19(57 base. Source: Department of Agriculture. ORPORATE PROFITS Drporate profits (before taxes) including inventory valuation adjustment rose 20 percent from 1972 to 1973, according to revised estimates. Excluding inventory valuation adjustment the rise was 29 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 160 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 160 140 40 20 20 1968 I 1969 1971 1970 1973 1972 SOURCEs DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally Corj>orate pr ofits (befc>re taxes) and in veri tory valuation adjustmei it TransCorpoM anufactui ing portation, rate comprofits NonAll Durable durable muniAll before indusgoods other 1 taxes goods cation, Total industries and industries public tries utilities 82.4 78.7 _ _ ^ 84. 3 79. 8 69. 2 80. 1 91. 1 109. 2 42.6 38.7 41.7 36.6 27. 8 32. 5 40. 1 51. 1 24. 0 20,7 22. 4 18.8 10.5 14.7 20.2 26. 9 18. 6 18.0 19. 3 17.7 17.3 17.8 20.0 24.2 11.9 10. 8 10. 6 10. 1 86.2 88.0 91.5 9& 8 37. 3 38.7 39.9 44.7 18.7 20.2 19. 5 22. 3 18.6 18.5 20.4 22. 4 8. 5 8. 9 104. 3 II 107. 9 III.. 112.0 iv*_ 112.6 49.7 52.4 51.9 26. 9 28.5 26. 6 22. 8 23. 9 25.3 1966 1967 1968_ 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 » 1972: I II__ III_ IY__ 1973: I adjusted annual rates] ConDerate pr ofits a fter taxe s Corpo- Profits rate plus Corpocapital capital rate conconDiviUntax sumpliabil- Total dend distrib- sumption tion payuted ity ments profits allow-2 allow-3 ances ances 27. 9 29. 1 32. 0 33. 1 33. 7 39. 1 41. 7 48. 8 84. 2 79.8 87. 6 84. 9 74. 0 85. 1 98. 0 126.4 34. 3 33. 2 39. 9 40. 1 34. 8 37. 4 42. 7 55. 9 49. 9 46. 6 47. 8 44. 8 39. 3 47. 6 55. 4 70.5 20.8 21.4 23. 6 24. 3 24. 7 25. 1 26.0 27. 8 29. 1 25. 3 24. 2 20.5 14. 6 22. 5 29. 3 42. 7 39. 5 43. 0 46. 8 51. 9 56. 0 60. 4 65. 9 71. 3 89. 5 89. 6 94. 6 96.8 95. 2 108. 0 121. 3 141. 8 9. 9 40. 4 40.4 41. 7 44. 2 92. 8 94. 8 98.4 106. 1 40. 6 41. 4 42. 9 45. 9 52. 2 53.4 55. 6 60. 3 25. 7 25. 9 26. 2 26. 4 26. 5 27. 5 29. 4 33. 9 63. 4 66. 2 66. 0 68. 0 115. 6 119. 5 121. 6 128. 3 9. 2 8. 5 10. 3 45. 4 47. 0 49. 8 119. 6 128. 9 129.0 128. 1 52. 7 57. 4 57. 6 56. 0 66. 9 71. 6 71. 5 72. 0 26. 9 27. 3 28. I 29. 0 40. 0 44. 2 43. 4 43. 0 69. 3 70. 5 71. 7 73. 7 136. 142. 143. 145. 7.8 8. 6 9. 3 9.3 9.8 i Includes all other industries and financial institutions. * Includes depreciation and accidental damages. ' Corporate profits after taxes plus corporate capital consumption allowances. 1974 Source: Department of Commerce. 2 0 2 7 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT Nonresiderttlal fixed investment (seasonally adjusted) rose again In the fourth quarter of 1973, but residential c^. siruction fell sharply. Inventory investment rose sharply, partly because of the backing up of automobile stocks hel< by dealers. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 200 200 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 150 100 50 .^-^--J)---"-^'"-" r: f RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES 1967 SOURCE 1 1968 1970 1969 -CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES / ,_,.../** 1973 1972 1971 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADViSERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Fixed m\vestment Period Total gross private domestic investment Struc tures Total Total Total 1964 1965 1966 1967_ 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1972: I II__ III IV 1973: I II III IV sa2 Nonfarm Producers; durable equlipment Total Nonfarm Total Nonfarm 94 0 108. 1 121.4 116.6 126. 0 139. 0 136. 3 153. 2 178. 3 202. 1 98.5 106. 6 108. 4 118. 9 131. 1 131. 7 147. 1 172.3 194. 2 61. 1 71.3 81. 6 83. 3 88. 8 98. 5 100. 6 104. 4 118. 2 136. 2 21.2 25. 5 28.5 28. 0 30. 3 34. 2 36. 1 37. 9 41. 7 48. 4 20.5 24.9 27.8 27. 3 29. 6 33. 5 35. 3 37. 0 40. 8 47.5 39. 9 45. 8 53. 1 55. 3 58. 5 64. 3 64. 4 66.5 76.5 87.8 36.3 41. 6 48. 4 50. 0 53. 6 59. 2 58. 9 60. 9 69. 8 79. 3 27.1 27. 2 25. 0 25. 1 30. 1 32. 6 31. 2 42. 7 54. 0 58. 0 26.6 26. 7 24.5 24. 5 29. 5 32. 0 30. 7 42. 2 53. 5 57. 4 167. 5 174. 7 181. 5 189. 4 165. 169. 172. 181. 8 2 9 2 114. 0 116. 3 118. 3 124. 3 41. 0 41.5 41.3 43. 0 40. 1 40. 6 40. 4 42. 1 73. 1 74. 9 77.0 81. 2 67. 3 68. 9 69. 8 73.4 51. 8 52. 8 54. 5 56. 9 51. 2 52. 3 53. 9 56. 4 194. 198. 202. 213. 189. 193. 197. 195. 9 7 3 9 130. 9 134. 1 138. 0 141.8 45. 3 47. 2 49. 5 51. 7 44. 4 46. 3 48. 5 50. 7 85. 5 86. 9 88. 6 90. 1 77. 8 78. 4 80.0 81.0 59. 0 59. 6 59. 2 54.0 58. 4 59. 1 58. 6 53. 4 5 2 0 9 Source: Department of Commerce. 8 Resic ential struc tures N<president ial Change in business in"V entories Total 5. 8 9. 6 14. 8 8. 2 7. 1 7.8 4. 5 6. 1 6. 0 8. 0 1. 7 5.5 8. 7 8. 2 4. 6 4. 5 4.7 18. 0 Nonfarm 6. 4 8. 6 15.0 7. 5 6. 9 7. 7 4. 3 4. 5 5. 6 7. 3 1. 4 4. 8 8. 4 7. 9 4. 4 4. 4 3. 2 17. 3 PENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT icssmen anticipate a 1 3 percent rise In their plant and equipment expenditures this year, according to the survey In January and February. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1120 120 IQIAl NEW FiANT AND EQUIPMENT 1968 J/SEE FOOTNOTE 3 BELOW. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE CQUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Is onman ufaeturir ^g M inufactur ing Period Total i Total 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 s 1974 1973: I II III IV _ 1974: Is 3 63. 51 65. 47 67. 76 75.56 79.71 81. 21 88. 44 99. 74 112. 72 96. 19 97. 76 100. 90 103. 74 107. 18 II 109. 96 3 2nd half ____ 116. 43 28. 20 28. 51 28. 37 31. 68 31. 95 29. 99 31. 35 38. 01 45. 37 35. 51 36. 58 38. 81 40. 61 42. 74 44. 47 46.87 Trarisportal ion Durable goods Nondurable goods Total 14.06 14. 06 14. 12 15. 96 15. 80 14. 15 15. 64 19. 25 22. 64 17. 88 18. 64 19.73 20. 48 22. 12 22. 18 23. 09 14. 14 14.45 14. 25 15. 72 16. 15 15. 84 15. 72 18.76 22. 72 17. 63 17. 94 19.08 20. 13 20. 62 22. 29 23. 78 35. 32 36. 96 39. 40 43. 88 47. 76 51. 22 57. 09 61. 73 67.36 60. 68 61. 18 62. 09 63. 12 64. 44 65.49 69. 56 1 Excludes agricultural business; real estate operators; medical, legal, educational, and cultural service; and nonprofit organizations. reported by business necessary for systematic tendencies in expectations data. Mining 1.62 1. 65 1. 63 1. 86 1. 89 2. 16 2. 42 2. 74 3. 20 2. 59 2. 77 2. 82 2. 76 3. 10 3. 14 3.28 Railroad Air 2.37 1. 86 1. 45 1. 86 1. 78 1. 67 1. 80 1. 96 2. 38 2. 11 1.75 1. 95 2. 05 2.26 2. 32 2.47 1. 74 2.29 2. 56 2. 51 3. 03 1. 88 2.46 2.41 2. 11 2. 21 2. 72 2. 49 2.20 2. 03 2.44 1. 96 Source: Department of Commerce. ComCom- mercial Public muniutilities cation and Other other 2 L64 1.48 1. 59 1. 68 1. 23 1. 38 1.46 1. 66 1. 61 1. 53 1. 62 1.79 1. 73 1. 78 1. 57 1. 55 7.43 & 74 10. 20 11. 61 13. 14 15.30 17. 00 18. 71 22. 20 18. 38 18.08 18. 58 19. 80 21. 00 21. 20 23. 14 6.02 6.34 6. 83 8. 30 10. 10 10. 77 11.89 12. 85 14 15 12. 34 12. 70 13. 12 13.24 14.48 14. 59 15. 14 16.05 16.59 i&os 20.07 21.40 21. 71 21. 53 21.55 21. 36 21.35 34. 27 34. 82 37. 16 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGE STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE The seasonally adjusted civilian labor force was virtually unchanged in February. A relatively small decline in nonagricultural employment (66,000) was largely offset by increased employment in agriculture (58,000). There was no significant change in the number of unemployed persons. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 95 MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 95 5 - PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE S&«kS DhIA Li.1r INEM PL OV N\ENT R ATE ^ r- - [T 1 j, 196 8 w 196 ? T /\c JL SI EC) r n n^ ^ KJ IS 70 i i9 71 i<?7 3 97 2 *lfi Y E A R S OF AGE AND OVER. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF I.ABOR Period 1970... 1971___ 1972*__ 1973... Total labor force (including Armed Forces) 85, 86, 88, 91, 903 929 991 040 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Civiliiin e raiploy ment NonagriTotal eultural 78, 627 79, 120 81, 702 84, 409 Unemployment Thous ands of 75, 165 4, 088 75, 732 4, 993 78, 230 4, 840 80, 957 4, 304 Total labor force (including Armed Forces) jDersons 1C 85, 903 86, 929 88, 991 91, 040 Civilisin emplc yment Civilian labor force Total Agricultural years of age and o ver 82, 715 78, 627 3,462 84, 113 79, 120 3,387 86, 542 81, 702 3, 472 88, 714 84, 409 3,452 Unadj usted 1973: Jan__ Feb__ Mar* Apr__ May. June_ July. Aug_ Sept.. Oet__ Nov_ Dec. 1974: Jan__ Feb_ Nonagricultural 165 732 230 957 4,088 4,993 4, 840 4, 304 4. 9 5. 9 5. 6 4. 9 Unadjusted 4,381 4,486 4,380 4,364 5.5 5.6 5.2 4. 8 4. 3 5.4 5. 0 4. 7 4. 7 4.2 4. 5 4. 5 4, 732 4, 753 5.6 5.7 tSeasonally adjuster I 81, 043 81, 838 82, 814 83, 299 83, 758 85, 567 86, 367 85, 921 84, 841 85, 994 85, 828 85, 643 78, 088 78, 882 79, 683 80, 004 80, 291 81, 514 82, 201 82, 095 81, 406 82, 469 82, 409 82, 441 4, 675 4, 845 4,512 4, 174 3,799 4, 847 4, 550 4,208 4, 165 3, 763 4, 056 4,058 89, 404 90, 108 90, 523 90, 622 90, 597 91, 138 91, 139 91, Oil 91, 664 92, 038 92, 186 92, 315 87, 000 87, 716 88, 162 88, 272 88, 263 88, 818 88, 828 88, 704 89, 373 89, 749 89, 903 90, 033 82, 619 83, 230 83, 782 83, 854 83, 950 84, 518 84, 621 84, 513 85, 133 85, 649 85, 649 85, 669 3,469 3,356 3, 320 3,430 3, 512 3,425 3, 376 3,455 3,561 3, 643 79, 130 79, 784 80, 313 80, 498 80, 630 81, 088 81, 109 81, 088 81, 757 82, 194 82, 088 82, 026 91, 354 91, 692 84, 088 84, 294 80, 891 81, Oil 5,008 5, 140 92, 801 92, 814 90, 543 90, 556 85, 811 85, 803 8,794 3,852 82, 017 81, 951 *Data beginning January 1972 not strictly comparable with prior data because of adjustment to 1970 Census data, which added 333,000 to the civilian labor force and 301,000 to civilian employment. A further adjustment in March 1973 added 60,000 to the labor force and to employment. Ija» ''OF Unem- Unempl oyinent force rate (pe rcent of ployparticici villa a labor pation ment for ce) rate 1 Percent 75, 75, 78, 80, 88, 122 89, 075 89, 686 89, 823 89, 891 92, 729 93, 227 92, 436 91, 298 92, 046 92, 168 91, 983 10 1974 3,489 3,446 4,418 4,313 4,300 4, 207 4,191 4,240 4,100 4, 254 61. 3 61. 0 61. 0 61. 4 Seaso nally adju sted 5.0 5.1 5. 0 5. 0 4.9 4. 8 4. 7 4. 7 Jh 7 4*6 60. 8 61. 2 61. 4 61. 3 61. 2 61. 5 61. 4 4, 7 4.8 61. 3 61. 6 61. 8 61. 8 61. 8 5. 2 5.2 62. 0 61. 9 1 Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of ; and over. Seurce: Department of Labor. •"bECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND PART-TIME EMPLOYMENT seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in February was 5.2 percent, the same as in January. There was a noticeable >ase (168,000) in the number of workers who were employed part-time for economic reasons but who usually work full-time. PERCENT 10 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED LABOR FORCE TIME LOST > UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, EXPERIENCED WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ALL CIVILIAN WORKERS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, MARRIED MEN 1968 1974 SOURCE: DIPARTMENT OF IA8OR COUNCH. OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS UneEaploymen t rate (perceD t of civili an labor for ce in groi •P) Period 1970 1971 1972 1973 1973: Jan Feb Mar Apr _ May June. July Aug _ _ _ Sept _ ._ Oct Nov Dec 1974: Jan Feb_ _ 1 Experi- Married Labor force enced All men time lost J Over 40 wage and hours workers salary (wife present) workers 4.9 5. 9 5. 6 4. 9 5.0 5.1 5. 0 5. 0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.8 5. 2 5. 2 Per cent 2. 6 4.8 5.3 5.3 6.0 5. 7 3. 2 2. 8 2.3 4. 5 Seas on all y adjusted 4.6 4-7 4.6 4.7 4.5 4.4 4*4 4-4 4.4 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.9 2.4 2.4 2. 5 2.4 2. 3 2. 3 2. 1 2. 1 2. 1 2. 1 2. 1 2. 2 2. 3 2.4 6. 4 5. 2 5.8 5.4 5. 3 5. 3 5. 2 6. 2 5. 1 5. 1 5.1 5. 1 5. 2 5.4 5.7 5. 7 18, 925 19, 095 20, 320 21, 284 19, 527 20, 311 21, 485 20, 968 21, 966 21,467 20, 424 20, 503 22, 631 21, 797 22, 099 22, 225 19, 913 19, 730 Man-hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part-time for economic reasons as a percent of potentially available labor force man-hours. 2 Differs from total nonagricultural employment (p. 10), which includes per^° with jobs but not at work for such reasons as vacation, illness, bad weather, ndustrial disputes. deludes persons who worked part-time because of slack work, material ages or repairs, new job started, or job terminated. Persons at work in nonagri cultural ir idustries by hours worked i>er week 2 Uiider 35 ho urs Part-ti me for Part~ti me for economi c reasons economi s reasons 35-40 hours Total Usually Usually Usually Usually partfullpartfulltime 4 time 3 time 4 time 3 Thousan ds of pers ons 16 ye ars of age and over 1, 201 995 33, 537 18, 222 35, 752 16, 298 1, 256 1, 184 36, 794 16, 549 1, 327 1,081 37, 426 17, 473 1,074 1,237 I Jnadjustec I Seasonal! / adjusted 35, 819 18, 557 905 951 948 1, 172 35, 844 19, 305 1, 020 1, 068 1, 200 1}024 37, 537 17, 378 967 1, 096 958 1, 255 37, 983 18, 000 962 966 989 1, 169 37, 904 17, 239 1, 031 949 1; 211 1,043 38, 306 15, 714 1,772 1, 195 1, 099 J 1,374 37, 040 14, 283 1, 129 1, 208 1,886 1, 161 37, 125 14, 326 1, 567 1, 315 1, 167 1, 120 38, 451 16, 172 1, 126 1, 092 1, 106 1} 247 34, 956 22, 136 1, 108 1, 103 1, 046 1, 274 1, 104 38, 566 18, 630 1,083 1, 143 1, 262 39, 574 17, 934 1, 192 1,210 1, 140 1, 370 38, 579 18, 682 8 1,274 1, 213 1, 111 1, 373 38, 275 19, 629 1,381 1, 375 s 1, 222 1, 373 4 Primarily 1 includes persons who could find only part-time work. Average hours worked: usually full-time, 24.4; usually part-time, 19.0. Source: Department ®f Lab@r. 11 UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In Februaryf insured unemployment under State programs averaged 568,000 more than a year earlier. The season adjusted insured unemployment rate increased from 3.0 to 3.2 percent. MILLIONS OF PERSONS MitUONS OF PERSONS INSURED UNEMPLOYAWT MAR, APRIL MAY JULY JUNE AUG. SEPT. OCT. OF IABQR Insured unemployCovered employment ment (weekly average) Total benefits paid (millions of dollars) s Thou sands 59, 526 2,070 59, 375 2,313 _ . „„ 2,185 „ _ „ _ _ _ 1,783 *_.__ ___ 2,333 » 2,250 » 2, 075 ^_ _ _ „ „_ 1,828 » „ _. _ 1, 610 " „ _ _ 1, 523 » _ 1,640 » 1, 572 » 1,441 Oct » ... . 1,452 » 1, 667 ».. 2, 093 Jan » _ _ 2,741 Feb 9 _„ 2,800 4, 179, 1 5, 498. 2 5, 491. 1 4, 441. 8 528. 6 460. 6 488, 3 406. 3 379. 4 315. 6 326, 9 353. 5 287. 8 322. 9 332. 5 378. 2 550, 0 800, 0 Period Feb __ _ 2 9 i 16............ 1 ! 2* i* ^_B€gi3K3*-n5i •Tl--j. T&3 iary mo Steite progra ms Insured unemployment Initial claims Weekly i 1, 805 2, 150 1,848 1, 2, 124 23 062 1,898 1,669 1, 1, 384 1, 505 1,436 1,299 1,299 1, 503 1, 922 2, 562 2, 630 Exhaustions t housands 296 295 261 246 331 249 213 216 193 206 275 212 186 210 266 395 446 359 25 38 35 29 33 32 33 33 31 28 27 27 25 24 25 27 30 30 Insurec1 unemploymenit as perof eovered employment Unad- Seasonadjusted Benefi ts paid Total Average weekly (milcheck lions 01 dollars) (dollars) Per cent 3. 4 4. 1 3. 5 2. 7 as a7 3.4 2. 8 2. 5 2. 4 2, 5 2. 4 2. 1 2. 1 2. 4 a "* 4. 1 4. 2 2. 7 2, 8 i. 8 S. 7 £7 2, 7 H 6" 8.7 S. 8 £ Q B, 8 I, 9 3. G ^2 3, 848. 5 4, 957. 0 4, 471. 0 4, 007. 6 473. 4 418. 4 441. 0 365. 7 339. 2 286.6 286. 3 <u> 1 0, cS 24a S 280. 7 289 -'*• 335,8 500, 0 750, 0 50. 34 54.02 56, 03 58.73 5a 69 59. 08 59. 09 59. 41 58. 44 sa 12 57. 42 57. 46 58. 13 5a 97 59L §1 60, 40 ea 75 6L 00 | 23 ( DEC COUNCIt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS A 11 programas 1970... _ 1971 1972.... »._ 1973: Jan Feb NOV. i 2, 732 2, 776 2 ? 828 2, 887 2, 804 to lr 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, led 561 604 649 673 587 381 459 352 296 313 310 /e: 4. 1 41 42 42 1 4. 1 — „nt of ONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT bnagrsculturai payroll employment (seasonally adjusted) Increased by 175,000 in February. There was a large Celine in employment in durable manufacturing (1 34,000), but either no significant change or increased employment in the other sectors. MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED? 8U _^n a^» <^ r 76 ALL NONIAGRICULTURAL ' JESTAf3LISHMENTS ^ •70 \^^^^ ^^ MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 18 (ENLARGED SCALE) WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRAD5 14 - ——^ XA -4 I- 4/1 NONA UNUFAaURING (PRIVATE) - \ 12 mm SERVICES ^*»»**«**** ' DURABLE" MANUFACTURING ^\-~^^ if} 12 asiBS^ Ou vv s 10 -9^ \ 20 NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING _ MAr-IUFACTURING <ti,,,t,.,HUiin»»n»"" A, "«« ^*«fHUUNi(|n,tll(lll.ii ^ GOVERNMENT CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION ......1.—. 8 rfl f f f 1 I ! f ? f ! ! ! ! 1 1 ! ! ! 1 1 !! ! 1 ! 1 1 ! I 1 1 1 1972 1971 1973 ! ! ! ? t f ? 1 ? f.l| I \ tJ LI ?... Lt.._t 11 1974 1972 1971 1973 1974 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURC& DEPARTMENT OF IABOR [Thousands of wage and salary workers; 1 seasonally adjusted] 1s-lonmanuifacturln g Manufa cturing ( private) i Period Total Total 19, 781 20, 167 19, 349 I _ _ _ _ 70, 645 18, 529 72, 764 18, 933 1972 75, 567 19, 820 1973: Jan.. 74, 252 19, 483 Feb.. 74, 715 19, 588 Mar_ 74, 914 19, 643 Apr__ 75, 105 19, 727 May. 75, 321 19, 782 June. 75, 526 | 1% 856 July__ 75, 478 19, 304 Aug.. 75, 747 19, 861 Sept— 75, 961 19, 882 Oct.. 76, 363 20, 016 Nov. 76, 679 20, 095 Dec__ 76, 620 20, 090 76, 520 20, Oil Feb * 76, 695 197 860 1968 1969 67, 915 70, 284 NonDurable durable goods goods 11, 626 11, 895 11, 195 10, 565 10, 884 11, 633 11, 320 11, 421 11, 463 11, 534 11,602 11, 654 11, 646 11, 692 11, 708 11, 802 11, 859 11, 859 11, 774 11, 640 8, 155 8,272 8, 154 7,984 8,049 8, 186 8, 137 8, 185 8, 180 8, 193 8, 180 8,202 8, 158 8, 169 8, 174 85 214 8, 236 8, 231 8, 237 8, 220 Total f~\ Gon- Transtract portation Mining conand strue™ public tion utilities 36, 288 37, 915 38, 709 39, 261 40, 541 42, 089 41, 311 41, 59S 41, 697 41, 764 41, 897 42, Oil 42, 079 42, 249 42, 423 42; 601 42, 746 42, 649 42, 611 42, 887 all fullpart-time and salary in nqnagricultural "•^bllstnnents who worked during or received pay for any part of the period h the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors,, self-employed perservants, personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from with estimates of nonagriculturaJ employment of the an shown on p. 10, include proprietors, self-employed >ns, servants; which count persons as employed when they 806 619 623 802 607 625 610 312 610 608 508 629 631 634 633 639 644 646 651 658 3, 285 3, 435 3, 381 3; 411 3,521 3,648 3, 498 3, 594 3, 604 3, 571 3, 620 3, 654 3, 680 3, 676 3, 700 3, 694 3, 711 3, 732 3, 629 3, 730 i Source: 4,310 4, 429 4,493 4, 442 4, 495 4, 611 4, 574 4, 580 4, 580 4, 591 4, 593 4, 597 4, 598 4, 617 4, 629 4, 671 4, 654 4? 644 4, 684 4, 679 Gover nment ) VV iiole- Finance^ insursaie ance, Services Federal State and and and retail local real trSidf estate \TT-I I 14, 084 14, 639 14, 914 15, 142 15, 683 16, 288 16, 013 16, 114 16, 163 16, 217 16, 256 16, 262 16, 294 16, 352 16, 388 16, 465 16, 520 16, 398 16, 419 16, 484 of Labor. 3, 382 35 564 3,688 3, 796 3, 927 4, 053 3, 995 4, 014 4, 024 4, 031 4,044 4, 049 4, 048 47 064 4, 078 4, 088 45 095 4, 101 4, 105 4, 123 10, 623 11, 229 11, 612 11, 869 12, 309 12, 866 12, 621 12, 682 12, 716 12, 746 12, 776 12, 820 12, 828 12, 906 12, 995 13. 044 13', 12213, 128 13, 123 13, 213 2,737 2,758 2,705 2, 664 2; 650 2,627 2, 634 2,628 2,631 2,628 2,641 2, 613 2,588 2, 599 2, 613 2, 626 2, 638 2, 654 2, 658 2, 658 9, 109 9,444 9,830 10, 191 10, 640 11, 031 10, 844 10, 905 10, 943 10, 988 11, 001 11, 046 11, 007 11, 038 11, 043 11, 120 11, 200 11, 233 11, 240 11 290 WEEKLY HOURS OF WORK - SELECTED INDUSTRIES in February the average workweek in the private nonfarm sector experienced a seasonally adjusted increase of 0. hour to 36.9 hours. Increases occurred in manufacturing, construction, and trade. HOURS PER WEEK {SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 46 HOURS PER WEEK (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED} 46 MANUFACTIJR1NG TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL PRIVATE A A 44 A') 40 40 y^"****-****"-^ ^ ^^^^ f^ H •50 38 •sx 36 36 M /[f I I t 1 1 I f M f * 1971 34 1972 1971 1973 1974 t f f 1 ! 1 f f t f f ( f t f t I i t i it 1972 1973 1972 1973 f I f f 1 ! ( t f t IK 1974 42 42 RETAIL TRADE CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION 40 38 36 36 34 32 30 I 1 I I ! I I t ! If 1971 1972 i ii i i I t f i i i 1973 30 1974 ^u 1971 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR i 1974 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 1 [Average hours per week ] Total n onagricultural private 2 Period Manufacturing Contract construction Retail trade 3 Total nonagricultural private 2 Unad justed 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1973: Jan Feb Mar Apr 38.8 sae . _ _ May__ _ June__ July Aug _ _ _ Sept _ Oct Nov Dec 1974: Jan "__ Feb* 1 D ata relate to production 2 Als® includes other private 8 _ _ _ _ 38. 0 37. 8 37.7 37.1 37.0 37.2 37. 1 36.6 36.8 36.9 36.9 37,0 37.4 37.6 37. 5 37.3 37.0 37.0 37.2 36.4 36.5 41. 2 41. 3 40. 6 40. 7 40. 6 39. 8 39. 9 40.6 40.7 40. 0 40. 6 40. 8 40. 7 40.7 40. 9 40.5 40. 5 41.0 40. 7 40.8 41.2 39. 9 40. 1 workers or nonsupervisory employees. industry groups shown ©n p. 13. Includes eating and drinking places! 14 37.4 37. 6 37.7 37.4 37. 9 37. 4 37.3 37.0 37.2 34. 8 34.9 36.6 36.8 37. 5 38.1 38. 4 38. 3 37.9 37. 7 37. 5 36.6 34.9 36.2 Manufacturing Contract construction Retail trade s Seasonallyy adjusted 36. 6 35. 9 35. 3 34. 7 34. 2 33. 8 33. 7 33.6 33.2 32.9 32.9 32. 9 33.0 33.0 33. 8 34, 3 34. 1 33. 2 32. 8 32.8 33. 2 32. 2 32. 3 36. 9 37.2 37.1 27.2 87.2 37.1 37. 2 37. 0 37. 2 37; 0 37. 1 37. 0 36.7 36.9 Source: Department of Labor. 40. 3 41.0 40.9 40. 9 40. 7 40.6 40. 7 40.5 40.8 40. 6 40.6 40.7 40. 2 40.6 36. 1 36. 2 37.0 37. 0 37.5 37. 4 37. 6 37. 1 36. 7 36. 9 38. S 37. 2 36. 2 37. 5 S3. 4 33.5 33.4 S3. 4 •?<? 4/ oo. 33. 5 33. 2 33. 0 33. 2 S3. 0 00 i OO. I 32. 9 32. 7 32. 9 ERAGE HOURLY AND WEEKLY EARNINGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES >rage hourly earnings (not seasonally adjusted) in private nonfarm production and nonsupervisory jobs increased ^y 1 cent (3.0 percent annual rate) to $4.03 in February, in spite of a 1 cent decline in manufacturing. Average weekly earnings increased by 77 cents (6.5 percent annual rate) to $147.10. DOLLARS DOLLARS AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS 280 7.00 CONTRACT: CONSTRUCTION 240 6.00 X\X "1 200 5.0.0 MANUFACTURING 160 4.00 TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL PRIVATE TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL PRIVATE 120 3.00 R'ETAIL TRADE RETAIL TRADE 80 ZOO ..1 » . T»71 1972 1974 1973 1971 1972 1973 : »IF/«TMENT OF LABOR 1974 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [For production workers or nonsupervisory employees] Average h ourly earnings— current dollars Average Tweekly earntings— curr ent dollars Peri®ci 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1973: Jan Fcb_ Mar Apr_ Mav June July Aug Sept _ __. Oet Nov D^c 1974: Jam -» Feb * Total nonagricultural private 1 Manufacturing Contract construction Retail trade 2 Manufacturing Contract construction Retail trade 2 $138. 146. 154. 164. 181. 195. 212. 224. 240. 223. 220. 229. 232. 237. 241. 245. 247. 251. 251. 250. 245. 38 26 95 93 54 98 24 22 68 42 22 85 21 75 94 76 42 66 08 13 22 $66. 61 68. 57 70. 95 74.95 78. 66 82.47 86. 61 90. 72 95. 28 91. 46 92. 12 92. 45 93. 39 93.72 96. 67 98. 10 97. 87 96. 94 96. 10 96. 43 97. 61 234. 88 243. 63 96. 28 96. 58 $2. 45 2. 56 2. 68 2. 85 3. 04 3. 22 3. 43 3.65 3. 89 3.77 3. 78 3. 80 3.83 3. 85 3. 87 3. 90 3. 91 3. 99 3. 99 4. 00 4. 01 $2. 61 2. 72 2. 83 3. 01 3. 19 3. 36 3. 56 3. 81 4. 07 3.98 3. 97 3. 98 4. 01 4. 02 4. 04 4. 06 4. 06 4. 13 4. 14 4. 16 4.21 $3. 70 3. 89 4. 11 4. 41 4.79 5. 24 5.69 6.06 6.47 6.42 6. 31 6.28 6. 31 6.34 6. 35 6. 40 6. 46 6. 64 6. 66 6. 67 6.70 $1. 82 1.91 2. 01 2. 16 2. 30 2. 44 2.57 2.70 2. 87 2. 78 2. 80 2. 81 2.83 2. 84 2. 86 2. 86 2. 87 2. 92 2. 93 2. 94 2. 94 $95. 06 98. 82 101. 84 107. 73 114. 61 119. 46 126. 91 135. 78 144. 32 137. 98 139. 10 140. 22 141. 33 142. 45 144. 74 146. 64 146. 63 148. 83 147. 63 148. 00 149. 17 $107. 53 112. 34 114. 90 122. 51 129. 51 133. 73 142. 04 154. 69 165. 65 159. 20 161. 18 162. 38 163. 21 163. 61 165. 24 164. 43 164. 43 169. 33 168. 50 169. 73 173. 45 4. 02 4. 03 4.21 4.20 6. 73 6. 73 2. 99 2. 99 146. 33 147. 10 167. 98 168. 42 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 13. Includes eating and drinking places. ft.d]Tistefll t« exclude the effects of overtime and interindustry shifts. 3@-225 °—74- Total nonagricultural private 1 Manufe icturing indu gtries Adjusted Average weekly hourly earnearnings, ings, 1967= 1967 i on s dollars 4 92. 6 $113. 79 95. 7 115. 58 114. 90 100.0 117. 57 106. 2 112. 6 117. 95 114. 99 119. 6 127. 5 117. 10 123. 46 135.4 143.3 124. 15 140. 1 124. 67 140. 1 125. 33 140. 7 125. 10 141. 4 124. 87 124. 42 142.0 142. 4 124. 80 143. 3 123. 91 143. 9 121.71 145. 2 124. 97 145.9 123. 35 146.8 123. 35 148. 3 125. 23 149. 1 149. 6 * Earnings in current dollars divided by the consumer price index. Source: Department of Labor. 120. 24 119. 02 15 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Industrial production, seasonally adjusted, declined again in February—0.6 percent—bringing the reduction since November 1973 to 2.1 percent and the rise over the year to 1.1 percent. About half of the February decline was attributable to additional curtailments of output in the auto and automotive-supplying industries. Index, 1967 =100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) Index, 1967 = 100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 100 1 i i f i i 1 i. i \ti \ t i i i I i i i 11 197] 1974 SOURCEj BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period 1966 1967 1968_ 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1973: Jan_ Feb Mar Apr_ May _ _ June.- _ _ July Aug __ _ Sept Get Nov Dec 1974: Jan » Feb* Total industrial production 97.9 100. 0 105. 7 110. 7 106.6 106.8 115. 2 125. 6 122. 2 123. 4 123. 7 124. 1 124. 9 125. 6 126.7 126. 4 126. 8 127. 0 127. 5 126. 5 125. 6 124.8 [1967= 100, seasonally adjusted] Market Industry Fiiml producJts Mi mufacturi ng InterUtilities Conmediate Mining NonEquipsumer Total Durable durable Total ment products goods 98.3 100. 0 105. 7 110. 5 105. 2 105. 2 114. 0 125. 2 121. 4 122. 7 123. 4 123. 8 124. 9 125. 6 126. 5 126. 1 126. 3 126. 4 127.4 126. 7 125. 5 124.7 99.0 100. 0 105. 5 110. 0 101.4 99.4 108. 4 122. 1 117. 5 118. 7 119.9 120. 6 121. 9 123.0 123. 8 122. 6 123. 3 123. 6 124. 3 123. 5 122. 0 120. 6 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 16 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISEES 97. 3 100. 0 106. 0 111. 1 110. 6 113. 5 122. 1 129. 6 127. 0 128. 4 128. 6 128. 4 129.2 129. 3 130. 6 130. 9 130. 7 130. 4 131. 3 131. 1 130.7 130.4 98. 4 100. 0 103. 9 107. 2 109. 7 107.0 108. 8 110. 3 108. 5 110. 2 109. 5 109. 0 109. 1 109. 5 111. 0 111. 5 111. 8 111. 9 111. 3 110. 7 111.6 110.7 93. 6 100. 0 109. 4 119. 5 128. 3 133.9 143. 4 152. 3 151. 0 150. 5 149.6 148. 7 149. 5 151. 6 154. 8 154. 8 155. 8 156. 2 154. 6 146. 0 142. 2 141. 6 96. 1 100. 0 105. 8 109. 0 104. 5 104. 7 111. 9 121.3 118. 6 119. 3 119. 6 120. 0 120. 8 121.3 122. 1 121. 4 122. 4 122. 7 123. 7 122. 1 120.8 120. 1 98. 6 100. 0 106. 6 111. 1 110. 3 115.7 123. 6 131.7 129. 8 130. 2 130. 8 130. 9 131. 7 131.9 132. 9 131. 2 132. 3 132. 6 133. 5 130. 7 128. 9 128.0 93. 0 100. 0 104. 7 106. 1 96. 3 89. 4 95. 5 106.7 102. 9 104. 1 104. 1 104. 7 105. 7 106. 6 107. 3 107. 6 108. 5 108. 9 110. 1 110. 3 109. 3 109.2 99. 2 100. 0 105. 7 112. 0 111. 7 112. 5 121. 1 131. 1 128. 4 129. 5 129. 4 129. 3 130. 5 132. 0 132. 5 132. 1 131. 0 130. 6 131. 1 130. 7 130.5 130. 8 -KIT , rials 99.8 100. 0 105. 7 112. 4 107. 7 107. 4 117. 4 129. 2 124. 5 126. 7 127. 0 127.7 128. 3 129. 0 130. 9 130. 9 131. 3 131. 1 131. 5 130. 9 130. 1 129.0 EDUCTION OF SELECTED MANUFACTURES \ durable and nondurable manufactures (seasonally adjusted) declined in February. Largest declines were in cated metal products, transportation equipment, and machinery. Index, 1967 =100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED? Index, 1967 =100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED} 140 LUMBER AND PRODUCTS CHEMICALS, PETROLEUM, AND RUBBER 120 100 TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT 1 I II II t I t tI 80 f t t f t I It I If ! I! 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 120 100 TEXTILES, APPAREL, AND LEATHER 100 80 1971 1971 1974 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted] Durafc le manufgtctures Nc>ndurable manufactu res Primary metals Fabricated metal products Machinery 1966 1967__ 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 108. 8 100. 0 103. 2 114. 1 106. 9 100. 9 113. 1 127. 1 100. 5 100. 0 106. 3 113. 6 109. 4 107. 4 114. 8 130. 6 98. 6 100. 0 101. 9 106. 8 100. 3 96. 2 107.5 125. 9 101. 2 100. 0 109.7 107. 6 90.4 92.9 99.0 109. 1 98.4 100. 0 104. 8 108. 6 106. 3 113. 9 122. 4 128. 3 101. 7 100. 0 104. 9 105. 9 100.2 100. 7 108. 1 114.7 98. 9 100. 0 104. 2 109. 1 107. 8 107.8 116. 1 122.2 94. 1 100. 0 109. 6 118. 4 118. 2 124. 7 137. 8 149. 3 97.0 100. 0 103. 6 107. 5 110.8 113. 7 117. 6 121. 9 1973: 123. 1 124. 7 123. 5 125. 8 126. 1 124. 5 128. 1 125. 6 127. 8 128.7 128.9 131. 4 125. 7 126.2 128. 4 128. 9 130. 3 133. 4 133. 5 133. 8 131. 5 132.4 133. 1 131. 5 118. 4 119. 1 121. 4 122. 6 124. 7 126. 9 127. 6 128. 5 130. 0 129. 3 130. 4 130.7 107. 6 110. 0 110. 3 110.0 111. 0 112. 2 112. 1 105. 7 107. 3 108.8 109. 8 103. 0 125. 8 128. 5 129. 5 129. 1 127. 5 126. 6 125. 4 128.4 128. 9 127.4 127. 3 132. 0 113. 4 114. 4 114. 6 114. 0 113. 3 115.0 114. 5 115.4 117.5 116.8 116. 7 117. 4 120. 0 121. 5 122. 4 120. 8 121.9 122. 8 123. 8 124.5 122. 1 121. 3 121. 9 121. 2 145. 5 146. 3 146. 3 147.9 150. 2 149. 8 151. 8 151. 0 150. 9 151. 1 151. 6 151. 6 119.6 122. 0 121. 5 120. 7 121. 5 119. 5 121. 3 122. 0 122. 2 121. 7 124. 7 123.4 131. 6 131. 6 133.2 130.3 128.7 126. 6 95. 8 94. 1 133. 0 116.0 114.9 120.9 121. 1 150.5 149. 9 124. 9 125. 0 Period Jan_ ___ _ _ _ _ Feb Mar— __ _ Apr _ May June__ _ Julv_. Aug _ _ Sept_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Oct. Nov Dec 1974: Jan * Feb » ___ Transpor- Lumber Textiles, Paper Chemicals, Foods tation and and petroapparel, equipprodand print- leum, and tobacco ment ing rubber leather ucts ?e: Board of Governors ol the Federal Reserve System. 17 WEEKLY INDICATORS OF PRODUCTION Weekly indicators of production (not seasonally adjusted) increased in February. MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS MILLIONS OF TONS 16 STEEL 1972 6 1 ,....l...l.r..l...!...I«t..l. J F M A M J fy i i Ii t I I t I! i ! t i I I t > i 1 J I THOUSANDS BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS 50 CARS AND TRUCKS ELECTRIC POWER 300 200 30 100 (19741 1972 20 ly M 1 1 M I m f 1 1 M t m I f ? M M I t , 1 , ,, It It t It , I I I I t I I I . . I . I t I t t II hi t I t. I I . H . t f I M J F M A M J J SOURCES: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, AND WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS Steel pi"oduced Index Thousands (1967= of net tons 100) Period Weekly average: 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 » 1973: Jan Feb Mar Apr _ May _ June_ July Aug__ Sept Oct Nov Dec 1974: Jan Feb » Week ended: 1974: Feb 2 9 16 23 Mar 2_ 9 » 16 » 1 Includes 2 data for Alaska.' Not charted. 18 ___ A S O N D COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Electric Bituminous Freight Paperboard Car s and tnicks power coal mined loaded produced assemb led (thoiisands^ distributed (thousands (thousands (thousands (millions of of short of tons) of cars) Total Cars Trucks kilowatt>-hours) tons) l 2,440 2,515 2,709 2,522 2,310 2,549 2,892 2,793 2, 906 2,954 2, 981 2,974 2, 911 2,781 2,750 2,857 2, 906 2, 934 2,878 2,873 2,896 111. 0 103. 4 94. 7 104.5 118.5 114. 5 119. 1 121. 1 122.2 121.9 119. 3 114.0 112.7 117. 1 119. 1 120. 3 118. 0 117.8 118. 7 23, 169 25, 244 27, 588 29, 317 30, 923 33, 540 35, 834 35, 861 35, 800 33, 643 33, 164 33,543 38, 061 39, 417 39, 783 36, 572 34, 762 34, 336 34, 911 35, 150 35, 617 10, 627 10, 485 10, 779 11, 595 10, 619 11,450 11, 346 10, 659 11, 124 11, 116 10, 945 11,493 10, 498 9,621 12, 090 12, 054 12, 175 11, 530 11, 111 11, 348 12, 201 540 543 543 522 486 502 525 492 509 515 518 543 545 504 543 543 564 536 487 491 524 439 479 507 489 501 548 571 512 582 593 584 589 583 518 591 548 589 581 575 581 588 172.9 207.6 195.8 158. 9 204. 8 217.3 243. 5 261. 3 277. 6 276. 1 262. 0 269.9 280. 1 216. 6 151. 5 234.3 269. 2 257. 4 177. 0 189. 1 200. 1 142. 4 170.1 158. 1 125. 9 165. 0 169. 6 185. 8 201. 5 213. 3 212. 1 200. 8 207. 3 216.7 164. 4 106. 5 179. 0 208. 8 198. 5 129. 0 133. 1 141. 1 30. 5 37.5 37.8 33. 0 39. 8 47.6 57.7 59. 8 64. 3 64. 1 61. 2 62. 6 63.3 52. 2 45. 0 55. 3 60. 5 58.9 48.0 56. 0 59. 0 2,900 2,838 2,906 2,887 2,891 2,896 2, 839 118.9 116.3 119. 1 118. 3 118. 5 118.7 116.4 34, 363 36, 343 35, 673 34, 794 35, 657 33, 443 234,314 12, 475 11, 810 12, 385 12, 970 11, 640 11, 345 532 522 527 519 527 525 586 592 586 582 591 578 212. 0 168.2 199. 4 221. 3 211. 5 202. 3 179. 8 152.4 112. 8 138. 8 161. 6 151. 1 144. 5 126.2 59. 6 55.4 60. 5 59. 6 60. 4 57. 8 53. 7 100. 0 loa i Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Dep ment of the Interior, Association of American Railroads, American Paper I tute, and Ward's Automotive Reports. CONSTRUCTION ccording to preliminary estimates, expenditures for new construction (seasonally adjusted) declined about 2 percent January. Both private residential and public construction were down 4 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 160 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 160 I SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 140 140 120 120 100 100 PRIVATE 80 80 60 60 . PUBLIC- 40 ..„..."»"""" I.....-- f-^- 20 \ ••«' 40 ,.„<»"'"««>""»»«, i i ; I i I I Ir 20 40 20 20 1968 1974 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973* Total new construction expenditures 86. 6 93.4 94. 2 109. 2 123. 8 135. 6 Total 59. 0 65.4 66. 1 79.4 93.6 103. 0 Resic ential CommerNew cial and Total i housing industrial units Bi lions of dol ars 30.6 24. 0 13. 8 33.2 25.9 16. 2 31.9 24. 3 16. 3 43.3 17.0 35. 1 54.2 18.1 44.7 57. 9 21. 6 47.7 Other Federal, State, and local 16. 0 17.9 19. 1 21.3 23. 5 27. 6 28.0 28. 1 29.9 30.2 32.6 22. 1 22. 3 22. 4 22. 6 22. 5 22. 4 22. 9 23. 0 23. 5 23.5 23. 3 24. 6 25. 4 25.0 25. 1 29. 3 33.1 33. 7 32.3 33.6 32. 6 32. 3 31.0 31. 5 31. 1 33. 2 33. 5 32. 9 35.8 34. 3 147 Seasonally / adjusted atinual rates 1972: Nov Dec_ _ _ 1973: Jan Feb Mar_ Apr_ May June July Aug __ __ Sept Oet____ _ Nov Dec * 1974: Jan* 126. 8 131.6 135.7 136.4 137.5 133. 8 134. 1 133. 8 136. 9 136.9 136. 9 136. 5 135. 9 136. 3 133.2 97. 5 98. 5 102.0 104. 1 103.8 101. 2 101. 8 102. 8 105. 4 105. 8 103. 7 103. 0 103. 0 100.5 98. 8 57. 2 57. 5 59. 4 61. 5 60.7 58. 0 57. 5 58. 2 59. 4 59.8 59. 0 56. 3 54. 7 52.7 50. 5 47. 8 48. 0 48. 1 49. 4 49. 6 48. 9 49. 2 49.5 49. 5 49. 3 48. 2 46.0 44. 1 42.0 39. 7 1 Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterapns, not shown separately. 2 ' P. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and ^ginning 1971 for floor space. 18. 2 18. 6 20. 3 20. 1 20. 6 20. 8 21. 5 21. 6 22. 5 22. 5 21. 4 22. 1 22. 9 22. 7 23. 2 Constructio n contracts 2 CommerTotal value cial and index, industrial (1967= floor space 100) (millions of square feet) 113. 2 123. 7 12a 1 145.4 165.3 181. 3 779 883 743 727 854 177 163 181 191 193 177 173 183 175 199 182 191 194 161 155 959 953 1, 021 Seasonally Seasonally adjusted adjusted annual rates 1,022 1,029 993 1,012 988 1,027 1,161 1, 118 1,029 1, 106 1,047 815 886 NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted floor space series revised. Sources: Department of Commerce and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. 19 NEW HOUSING STARTS AND APPLICATIONS FOR FINANCING Private housing starts rose 22 percent in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.8 million units—the high< since September 1973. February permits for future housing were about the same as in January. MILLIONS OF UNITS 3.0 MILLIONS OF UNITS 3.0 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 25 2.5 TOTAL PRIVATE HOUSING STARTS 2.0 ZO t5 10 1.0 FHA APPLICATIONS 1968 1974 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT. AND VETERANS ADMINISTRATION [Thousands of units] Hou sing star ts Period 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 _ _ _ 1973 1973 : Jan . _ _ _ Feb_ _ _ _ Mar Apr__ May___ June July Aug___ _ _ Sept. _ Oct____ Nov. _ Dec. 1974: Jan *>___ _ _ Feb* Private Total private and public (including farm) Total private (including farm) 1, 545. 4 1, 499. 5 1? 469. 0 2, 084. 5 2, 378. 5 2, 057. 5 1, 507. 6 1, 466. 8 1, 433. 6 2, 052. 2 2, 356. 6 2, 045. 3 147. 3 139. 5 201. 1 205. 4 234.2 203. 4 20.3. 2 199. 9 148. 9 149. 5 134.6 90. 6 86. 7 104. 3 146.6 138. 0 200. 0 205. 0 234.0 202. 6 202. 6 197. 2 148.4 147. 1 133. 3 90. 4 84. 9 104. 1 Total ( neluding5 farm) Total One unit 899.4 1, 507. 6 810. 6 1, 466. 8 812. 9 1, 433. 6 2, 052. 2 1, 151. 0 2, 356. 6 1, 309. 2 2, 045. 3 1, 132. 0 2, 472 2, 423 2,283 2, 153 2, 330 2, 152 2, 152 2,030 1,844 1, 674 1,675 1,403 1,470 1,800 1,418 1,363 1,244 1,231 1, 243 1, 140 1,232 1, 108 990 957 938 767 794 1, 041 1 Units are for 1- to 4-family housing. 2 Authorized by issuance of local building permit: in 14,000 permit-issuing places beginning 1972; 13,000 for 1967-71; 12,000 for 1963-66; and 10,000 prior to 1963. 20 Propos sd home constriiction 3 Gover nment home p rograms (nonj arm) Two or more VA FHA 1 units 608. 2 147. 7 56. 1 656. 2 153. 6 51. 2 233. 5 620. 7 61. 0 901. 2 301. 2 94. 0 198. 4 104. 0 1, 047. 5 913. 3 73. 6 86. 1 Seasona lly ad jus ted annu ai 1,054 89 96 1,060 110 105 92 1,040 100 922 98 75 82 1,088 109 1,013 89 79 920 88 81 921 69 92 854 66 71 718 52 62 737 57 57 636 68 37 676 61 39 64 759 48 New private housing units authorized 2 1, 353. 4 1, 323. 7 1, 351. 5 1, 924. 6 2, 218. 9 1, 795. 5 rates 2, 233 2, 209 2, 129 1,939 1, 838 2, 030 1, 780 1, 750 1, 596 1, 316 1, 314 1, 237 1,301 1, 304 Applications for Requests forVA FHA appraiscommitals ments 1 168. 9 187. 6 315. 0 366. 8 225. 2 83. 2 131. 7 138.2 143. 7 217. 9 209. 4 161. 9 124 102 94 71 91 99 92 69 94 51 56 30 46 4 62 217 216 200 168 166 166 136 141 137 142 134 124 124 156 s Units represented by mortgage applications or appraisal requests for new home construction. «Not charted Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of Housing and Ur Development, and Veterans Administration. BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—TOTAL AND TRADE jsiness sales rose 2.4 percent (seasonally adjusted) in January after declining in December. The $2.9 billion crease in inventories during January fell short of the $3.7 billion increase in December and the $3.4 billion increase ,n November. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED} BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 240 RETAIL TRADE (ENLARGED SCALE) 30 —DURABLE GOODS STORES INVENTORIES 20 15 ^--'-' 10 SALES A NONDURABLE GOODS STORES; 100 35 80 3.0 60 25 40 20 20 1971 1972 1974 1972 1971 1973 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total tmsiness l ReJtail Wholesale Sales2 Period 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1972: Dec 1973: Jan Feb__ Mar _ Apr May June_ July___ _ Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1974: Jan » Feb * 1 Sales 2 87, 178 89, 698 97, 100 103, 104 104, 708 112, 267 124, 680 144, 541 133, 483 136, 863 138, 910 141, 010 141, 274 142, 682 142, 311 __ 146, 458 146, 068 146, 235 150, 157 153, 096 151, 381 154, 974 Inventories 3 Sales2 136, 729 145, 164 155, 376 166, 813 174, 875 183, 622 196, 002 221, 357 196, 002 198, 157 199, 956 201, 317 202, 529 204, 623 206, 961 208, 776 210, 548 212, 227 214, 284 217, 637 221, 357 224, 214 16, 979 17, 099 18, 329 19, 726 20, 554 22, 280 24, 850 30, 405 26, 962 27, 755 28, 423 29, 312 29, 621 29, 675 29, 528 30, 443 30, 692 30, 646 31, 918 33, 101 33, 910 34, 885 The term "business" also includes manufacturing (see page 22). Monthly average for year and total for month. Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. 1974 Inventories 3 A/lillions of 20, 691 21, 557 22, 528 24, 363 26, 604 28, 916 31, 732 36, 926 31, 732 32, 582 33, 051 33, 245 33, 574 33, 986 34, 148 34, 653 34, 964 35, 266 35, 379 36, 265 36, 926 37, 940 NonDurable durable goods goods stores stores <dollars, se asonally a djusted 8, 192 17, 138 25, 330 8,348 17, 803 26, 151 9, 268 19, 222 28, 490 29, 824 9, 626 20, 197 31, 294 9, 524 21, 770 34, 071 10, 985 23, 086 37, 365 12, 472 24, 893 41, 943 14, 190 27, 754 39, 417 13, 640 25, 777 40, 707 14, 234 26, 473 41, 242 14, 405 26, 837 41, 979 14, 612 27, 367 41, 185 14, 339 26, 846 41, 723 14, 299 27, 424 41, 167 13, 731 27, 436 42, 767 14, 409 28, 358 42, 355 14, 481 27, 874 42, 529 14, 267 28, 262 42, 970 14, 331 28, 639 42, 976 14, 090 28, 886 42, 116 13, 270 28, 846 42, 902 13, 496 29, 406 42, 602 13, 057 29, 545 Total [nventories 3 Total 38, 073 38, 952 41, 973 45, 376 46, 626 52, 261 56, 551 63, 561 56, 551 57, 388 57, 823 57, 898 58, 378 59, 012 59, 788 60, 213 60, 677 60, 847 61, 681 62, 937 63, 561 63, 704 Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores 17, 258 17, 277 19, 167 20, 647 20, 345 23, 808 26, 034 28, 778 26, 034 26, 144 26, 234 26, 146 26, 356 26, 661 27, 051 27, 494 27, 563 27, 507 27, 926 28, 662 28, 778 28, 852 NOTE.—Total business and retail inventories revised beginning 1972. Source: Deportment of Commerce. 20, 815 21, 675 22, 806 24, 729 26, 281 28, 453 30, 517 34, 783 30, 517 31, 244 31, 589 31, 752 32, 022 32, 351 32, 737 32, 719 33, 114 33, 340 33, 755 34, 275 34, 783 34, 852 &* 1 MANUFACTURERS" SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND NEW ORDERS New orders recieved by durable goods manufacturers rose 2.3 percent in February according ro advance repo Shipments were slightly higher than in January. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (SEASONAUY Awusm B1UJONS OF DOLLARS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) INVENTORIES 120 100 DURABLE GOODS 80 NONDURABLE GOODS i i t t i l t t t i t l i t t i i l t. t 60 40 \ NONDURABLE GOODS 60 20 its RATIO 2.00 INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO 40 20 1.40 1971 1974 1971 1974 •SOURCE*DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufac turers* sh ipments * Manufad;urers' inventories2 Manufacturers' new orde rs1 Durafc>le goods Period Total NonDurable durable goods goods Total NonDurable durable goods goods Total Total NonCapital durable goods industries, goods nondefense Manufacturers' inventoryshipments ratio3 Millions of dollars seasonal y ad justed 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1973: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1974: Jan * Feb » 46, 449 50, 282 53, 555 52, 860 55, 917 62, 466 72, 193 68, 401 69, 245 69, 719 _ 70, 468 71, 284 _ 71, 616 73, 248 73, 021 73, 060 75, 269 77, 019 75, 355 77, 187 25, 212 27, 694 29, 459 28, 231 29, 948 33, 892 39, 519 37, 773 38, 122 38, 064 38, 651 39, 284 39, 257 40, 779 39, 633 40, 162 41, 567 41, 896 40, 203 40, 792 40, 913 21, 236 22, 588 24, 096 24, 629 25, 969 28, 573 32, 674 30, 628 31, 123 31, 655 31, 817 32, 000 32, 359 32, 469 33, 388 32, 898 33, 702 35, 123 35, 152 36, 395 84, 655 90, 875 97, 074 101, 645 102, 445 107, 719 120, 870 108, 187 109, 082 110, 174 110, 577 111, 625 113, 025 113, 910 114, 907 116, 114 117, 224 118, 435 120, 870 122, 570 54, 931 59, 112 63, 371 66, 768 66, 050 70, 218 79, 441 70, 590 71, 136 71, 873 72, 213 72, 867 73, 801 74, 278 75, 213 76, 249 76, 951 77, 645 79, 441 80, 541 1 Monthly average for year and total for month. 2 Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. *For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly 22 29, 724 31, 763 33, 703 34, 877 36, 395 37, 501 41, 429 37, 597 37, 946 38, 301 38, 364 38, 758 39, 224 39, 632 39, 694 39, 865 40, 273 40, 790 41, 429 42, 029 46, 763 50, 243 53, 646 52, 063 55, 732 63, 514 74, 636 70, 016 71, 022 72, 806 73, 325 74, 535 75, 361 75, 145 76, 113 75, 129 77, 758 79, 441 76,811 79, 077 25, 526 27, 666 29, 549 27, 431 29, 751 34, 867 41, 897 39, 218 39, 765 41, 021 41, 341 42, 449 43, 016 42, 697 42, 689 42, 259 44, 037 44, 315 41, 546 42, 453 43, 439 6, 971 7,694 7, 021 7, 339 8, 983 11, 037 10, 277 10, 105 10, 572 10, 619 10, 919 11,415 11, 404 11, 032 11, 267 11, 595 11, 970 11, 569 11, 7 12, 549 21, 238 22, 577 24, 097 24, 632 25, 981 28, 648 32, 738 30, 798 31, 257 31, 785 31, 984 32, 086 32, 345 32, 448 33, 424 32, 870 33, 721 35, 126 35, 265 36, 624 1. 76 1. 74 1.76 1. 89 1. 82 1. 67 1. 57 1. 58 1. 58 1. 58 1. 57 1. 57 1. 58 1. 56 1. 57 1. 59 1. 56 1. 54 1.60 1. 59 shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. Source: Department of Commerce. '^RCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS U.S. merchandise trade balance (seasonally adjusted) continued in surplus in January/ with record high exports 7.1 billion and rising imports of $6.5 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1968 1974 I/SEE N©TE BELOW. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period [Millions of dollars] Merch andise iinports /terchandise exporluS Total (includ-l ^ Gen<3ral impc>rts 3 Domesti c exports 2 ing ree xports) Food, Crude Food, Crude Total bever- matebever- mate- Manu2 facSeasonages, Season- Unad- Total i rials rials ages, ally ad- justed tured ally ad- Unad- and to- and and to- and justed goods justed justed bacco fuels bacco fuels Monthly average: 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 2,458 2, 586 2, 839 3, 111 3, 555 3,629 4, 102 5,900 2, 421 2, 554 2, 802 3,066 3, 502 3, 576 4, 035 5,809 432 392 383 370 422 423 547 1,078 367 394 405 417 558 537 591 895 1, 602 1,737 1, 985 2, 232 2, 445 2, 537 2, 813 3,725 730 734 815 3,040 3, 098 3, 139 3, 828 3,583 3, 942 3,725 3, 383 3, 523 3, 811 4, 192 4,236 4, 244 4,248 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 135 241 769 004 329 797 632 5,760 U nadjuste d 1972: Dec 1973: Jan ___ Feb Mar Apr May June _ July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1974: J a n _ _ _ 1 4,558 4,955 5,071 5, 309 5,492 5,557 5, 726 5, 860 6, 044 6, 414 6, 584 6,871 6,954 7, 111 4, 691 4, 732 4,866 5, 922 5, 561 6, 021 5, 858 5, 326 5, 787 5, 959 6, 749 7, 091 6,926 6,832 4, 617 4, 662 4, 797 5,827 5, 457 5, 925 5, 754 5, 244 5, 684 5,880 6,634 7,001 6,842 6,750 749 753 747 884 843 903 1, 023 980 1,294 1, 284 1,327 1, 514 1,387 1,289 1, 023 897 974 873 755 773 694 986 1, 110 1, 105 1,072 Total excludes Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supand equipment under the Military Assistance Program, btal includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind, ptal arrivals ol imported goods other than intransit shipments. 5,002 5,244 5, 482 5, 411 5,356 5, 700 5, 765 5, 821 5,991 5, 621 5, 969 6, 628 6,084 6, 467 4, 796 5, 407 4, 958 5, 601 5, 349 6, 033 5,901 5, 652 5, 997 5, 286 6, 373 6,787 5,777 6, 650 382 392 447 442 519 534 615 767 476 447 503 533 545 606 737 1, 112 Unad usted 639 726 645 714 757 835 724 693 788 707 835 936 839 881 822 930 854 994 915 1,070 1, 077 1, 005 1, 209 1, 103 1, 311 1,424 1,452 1, 742 Grossmerchandiee trade Manu- balance, seasonfactured ally adjusted goods 1,204 1,313 1, 719 1, 918 2, 159 2,535 3, 147 3,732 3, 190 3,588 3, 331 3, 742 3,534 3,996 3, 938 3, 800 3, 845 3, 332 4, 067 4,283 3,331 3,882 323 345 70 107 225 -168 -530 140 -444 -289 -412 — 102 136 -143 -40 39 53 792 615 243 870 644 NOTE.—Data adjusted to include silver ore and bullion reported separately prior to 1969. Source: Department of Commerce. 23 U.S. BALANCES ON GOODS, SERVICES, AND TRANSFERS The record high surplus of $4.0 billion (seasonally adjusted) in the balance on goods and services in the fen quarter of 1973 contributed to a large surplus of $6.9 billion in that account for the year 1973 as a whole. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES -3 1974 COUNCIL OF ICONOMJC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] M erchandisia 12 Netiiavestment i ncome Militixry trans actions Re- Net travel and Period Exports Imports Net balance Direct expenditures Net balance Sales _ _ __, ._ 1971__ __. 33, 626 -32, 991 635 -4, 535 1,392 36, 400 -35, 807 593 -4, 856 1, 512 41, 964 -39, 788 2, 176 — 4, 852 1,478 42, 763 -45,466 -2, 698 -4, 829 1,912 48, 769 -55,681 -6, 912-4, 724 1, 166 1973 »..__. 70, 255 -69, 567 688 -4, 536 2,365 1969 Private 3 3, 143 -3, 344 3,374 -2, 918 -3, 558 -2, 171 U.S. Government transportation expenditures 6, 157 63 — 1, 548 5,820 155 -1, 782 6, 374 -115 -2, 013 8, 929 — 957 -2, 288 9, 751 - 1, 889-2,853 12, 746 — 3, 023 -2, 312 Other services, net Balance on goods and services l 4 302 2,465 449 1,891 581 3,630 739 807 851 -4,610 972 6, 900 mitBaltances, penance on sions, and curother rent uniaclateral count transfers l -2, 909 — 443 -2, 941 - 1, 050 -3,214 416 — 3, 598 -2, 790 — 3, 744 -8,353 3,041 -3,859 Seasonally adjusted I 11 III.. 11, 655 -13,475 -1,820 - 1, 222 328 11, 539 -13, 313— 1, 774- 1, 242 288 12, 362 -13, 935 -1,573 -1, 108 262 IV.._. 13, 213 — 14, 958 - 1, 745-1, 151 287 1973:1... 15, 229 -16, 174 -945 -1,168 .343 II_- 16, 672 -17, 009 -337 — 1, 185 455 III.. _ 18, 143 -17, 531 612 — 1, 073 532 IV'.. 20, 211 -18, 853 1, 358 -1,110 1,035 1 3 24 grants. Census for differences in timing from "U.S. direct investments abroad or in the United -894 -954 -846 -864 -825 -730 -541 -75 2, 290 2,252 2, 447 2, 763 2, 977 2, 911 3, 135 3,723 -399 — 755 — 461 -691 -497 -679 -531 -730 -647 -608 -778 -703 — 802 — 476 -796 -525 204 -1,374 -969 — 2, 343 202 -1,426 -938 ~2} 364 209 -939 — 954 -1, 893 237 -870 -881 — 1, 751 742 232 184 — 558 238 601 -1, 041 -440 221 2, 149 -903 1,246 280 3, 965 — 1, 174 2, 791 4 Equal to net of goods and services in the national income product accounts ol the United converted to an basis. Department of Commerce, S. OVERALL BALANCES ON INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS ! net liquidity balance and the official reserve transactions balance, while still in deficit by $7,8 billion and $5.3 ^mion respectively, improved sharply in 1973 over 1972, reflecting a favorable shift in the balance on goods and services. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BALANCE ON CURRENT ACCOUNT AND LONG-TERM CAPITAL 1968 SOURCEs 1974 OF COMMERCE COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISEES [Millions of dollars] NonLoiig-ter m capital Balance liquid on flOWfc3? net current shortterm 1 account private U.S. and longcapital GovernPrivate 2 term ment 1 capital flows net 2 Period 1968 1971 1972 1973 9 -2, 158 1,191 — 1,411 231 - 1, 926 -70 -3,046 -640 -2,018 -1 7 429 — 3, 031 482 -2, 359 -4, 401 -9, 550-2, 347 — 152 -9,843 -1,637 — 1, 339 -357 1,214 -4, 210 — 1, 470 ___ Allocations of special drawing rights Errors and omissionSj net Net liquidity balance Liquid private capital flows2 5 net Official reserve transactions balance — 431 — 1,611 3,252 1,641 -2, 395 -6, 081 8, 820 2, 739 867 -1,205 -3,851 — 5, 988 -9, 839 717 -10, 784 -21, 965 -7, 788 -29, 753 710 -3, 112-13, 882 3, 542 -10, 340 -4, 793 -7, 789 2, 503 -5, 286! Changes in liabilities to foreign official agencies 5 net 3 Changes in U.S. official reserve assets, net 4 -761 -880 15, 1,552 -1, 187 16, 7, 362 2,477 14, 27, 405 2, 348 12, 10, 308 32 13, 5, 077 209 14, ad justed I ! II | IIL.-.J IY^_! I_____ II— _ ' IIT IV * ,! 1 2 -289 - 1, 143 -3, 775 -535 604 - 1, 855 -95 310 -366 -393 -2,652 -430 -586 781 — 1, 556 -9821 8 -336 — 886 -1,765 75 — 303 -668 -15426 — 333 1, 666 2, 549 46 — 846 -1, 731 214 - 1, 065 944 178 178 -940 177 — 1, 626 177 -1,490 -3, 898 477 - 1, 097 -275 Excludes iiabi itle? -o i'orei^n oQIeial icfprvo agencies, Private foreigners Delude the PvfP, but include other international organisations. 2 Includes liabilltieb to foreign official agencies by U.S. Government U.S. banks and U.S. liabilities to the IMi' arising from"reversible gold , deposits "iih,: tne United Stales. Official reserve e,ssetF «iiciu<3e gold, special drawing rights, convertible curies, and £hs U.S. gold ir> nche position in the IMF. U.S. official reserve assets, net (end of 5 period) — 3, 188 -288 -3,476! 3, 047 -2, 307 1,456 — 8511 1,082 — 4, 531 7 -4, 5241 < 579 2, 367 - 1, 484 | -3, 851 1, 595 -6, 549 -3, 927 -10,476 10, 256 -1, 617 1, 972 -372 355 1 6321 1, 498 2, 130 -2, 117 3, 826 — 1, 126 2, 700 -2} 685 710 964 487 167 151 378 Unadjusted 429 12, 270 -231 13, 339 gg 13, 217 — 111 13, 151 220 12, 931 17 12, 914 13 12, 927 -15 14, 378 6 Includes increases as follows: for 1969, $67 million of the German mark in Oct. 1969; for 1971, $28 million in value of revalued to reflect market exchange as of Dec. 31,1971; for and year 1972, $1,016 million resulting from in par of the on May 8,1972; and for fourth and year 1973, million resulting from change in par value of the dollar on Oct. 18,1973. Sources: Department of Commerce Department of the 25 PRICES CONSUMER PRICES In February, the consumer price index rose 1.3 percent (also 1.3 percent seasonally adjusted). Higher food and energy prices accounted for about 70 percent of the rise. Food prices were up 2.5 percent (also 2.5 percent seasonally adjusted). Nonfood commodity prices increased 1.0 percent (also 1.0 percent seasonally adjusted) and services prices rose 0.7 percent. Index, 1967 =100 Index, 1967 =100 120 110 10© 100 1968 1974 SOURCE! DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS All items Period 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1973: Jan_ _ _ _ Feb Mar Apr May _ June. July__ Aug _ Sept. _ Oct Nov Dee _ 1974: Jan Feb _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ __ _ Source: Department of Labor. 26 94 5 97.2 100.0 104. 2 109. 8 116. 3 121. 3 125. 3 133. 1 127. 7 128.6 129. 8 130.7 131. 5 132. 4 132.7 135. 1 135.5 136. 6 137. 6 138. 5 139. 7 141. 5 [1967 = 100] Services Co mmoditie,3 Comm odities les3S food Services All All com- Food less Non- services Bent modities All Durable durable rent 98.4 91. 5 §4.4 94. 8 92. 2 95. 7 96.2 96. 9 95. 8 98.2 95.3 99. 1 98. 5 97. 0 98. 2 97.5 100.0 100. 0 100. 0 100. 0 100. 0 100.0 100. 0 100. 0 104. 1 105.2 103. 7 103. 1 102.4 103. 7 105. 7 103. 6 112. 5 108. 4 107. 0 108. 8 105.7 108. 9 108. 1 113. 8 121. 6 112. 5 111. 8 113. 1 110. 1 113. 5 114. 9 123. 7 128. 4 117. 4 116. 8 116. 5 115. 2 118. 4 117.0 130.8 133. 3 123. 5 119.4 119. 8 119.2 120. 9 118. 9 135. 9 124. 2 141. 4 121. 9 124. 8 141. 8 123. 5 139. 1 129. 9 121. 8 119. 9 135.7 120. 5 120. 9 123. 4 128. 6 138. 3 136.2 122. 3 119. 9 121. 6 120. 9 138.7 124.5 131. 1 122. 4 134. 5 121. 5 120. 2 136.6 126. 1 122.8 139. 2 121.0 127.4 136.5 122. 3 137. 1 123.2 123. 3 139.6 121. 8 124. 0 123. 7 123.0 137.6 128. 3 140. 1 137. 9 122. 3 124. 7 124.0 138. 1 129. 4 139. 8 123. 7 140. 7 122.4 138.4 124. 4 124. 4 140. 9 129. 7 141.0 123. 5 124. 7 122. 6 139.3 132. 8 123. 8 125.0 149. 4 141.9 122. 6 124. 3 125.5 125.4 132. 8 148. 3 140.6 143. 4 142. 2 123. 2 127.0 133. 5 148. 4 125. 4 125.9 145. 2 143. 0 134. 7 123. 3 126.3 150.0 128. 5 126. 3 146. 1 126. 9 143.8 123. 2 130. 0 135. 7 151. 3 127. 1 146.9 144.8 131. 3 127.3 148.0 123. 3 137. 0 153.7 127.9 145. 8 149. 1 128.0 157.6 123.4 133. 5 139.3 129. 2 'HOLESALE PRICES e wholesale price index rose 1.5 percent in February (1.2 percent after adjustment for seasonal factors). Prices w, farm products and processed foods and feeds increased 1.6 percent (0.7 percent seasonally adjusted). Industrial commodity prices were up 1.4 percent (1.3 percent seasonally adjusted), about one-third of which reflected a continued rise in prices of fuels and power. Index, 1967 =1-00 hdex, 1967=100 200 200 180 180 160 140 140 FARM PRODUCTS AND PROCESSED FOODS AND FEEDS 120 120 100 100 1974 1968 SOURCE; COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS DEPARTMENT OF LABOR All commodities Period 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1973: Jan _ Peb Mar Apr May June__ July Aug Sept.. Oct _ Nov .Dee _ 1974: Jan Feb _ _ 96. 6 99.8 100. 0 102. 5 106. 5 110. 4 113. 9 119. 1 135. 5 124. 5 126.9 129. 7 130. 7 133. 5 136. 7 134. 9 142. 7 140. 2 139. 5 141. 8 145. 3 150. 4 152.7 [1967—100] Farni product3 and process^;d foods a nd feeds Processed All inFarm dustriTotal foods prodals1 ucts and feeds 97. 1 103. 5 100. 0 102. 4 108. 0 111. 7 113.8 122. 4 159. 1 137. 0 142. 4 149. 0 147. 9 154. 9 163. 6 156. 9 184. 5 173. 5 166. 8 164. 4 168.0 177. 8 180. 6 98. 7 105. 9 100. 0 102. 5 109. 1 111. 0 112. 9 125. 0 176. 3 144. 2 150. 9 160.9 160. 6 170. 4 182. 3 173. 3 213. 3 200. 4 188. 4 184. 0 187. 2 202. 6 205.6 95. 5 101. 2 100. 0 102. 2 107. 3 112. 1 114. 3 120. 8 148. 1 132. 4 137. 0 141. 4 139. 8 145. 0 151. 8 146. 5 166. 2 156. 3 153. 1 151. 9 155. 7 162. 1 164.7 1 Coverage of the subgroups does not correspond exactly to coverage of this dex. ! Excludes crude foodstuffs and feedstufis, plant and animal fibers, oilseeds, and ' leaf tobacco. 96. 4 98. 5 100. 0 102. 5 106. 0 110. 0 114. 0 117. 9 127. 0 120. 0 121. 3 122. 7 124. 4 125. 8 126. 9 126. 9 127. 4 128. 1 129. 6 133. 5 137. 1 140. 5 142. 5 Iridus trial c ommoditi es Crude mate-2 rials 100. 9 104. 5 100. 0 102. 0 110. 6 118. 8 122. 7 131. 1 155. 2 139. 1 142. 3 142. 5 146. 8 149. 6 152. 8 153.5 156. 0 161. 0 164. 7 174. 2 179. 8 188. 2 202. 7 Inter- Producmediate er finmate-3 ished rials goods 96. 9 98. 9 100. 0 102. 6 106. 1 110. 0 114. 3 118.9 128.4 121.2 122. 6 124.8 126. 6 128. 0 128. 9 128. 7 129. 5 130. 3 131. 2 133. 5 135. 9 139.8 142. 2 94. 4 96. 8 100.0 103. 5 106. 9 111. 9 116. 6 119. 5 123. 5 120. 6 121. 2 121.7 122.3 123. 1 123. 4 123.5 123. 9 124. 2 125. 1 125. 7 126. 7 128. 3 129. 3 Consurner finished g<3ods exeluding5 foods DurNonable durable 97. 9 98.5 100. 0 102. 2 104. 0 107. 1 110. 9 113.2 115. 8 113. 8 114. 0 114.5 115. 3 115. 7 115. 9 116. 1 116. 3 115. 8 116. 7 117. 0 117. 9 119. 6 120. 2 95. 9 97. 8 100.0 102.2 105. 0 108. 2 111. 3 113. 6 125. 9 115. 4 117. 4 117.8 119.8 121. 6 124. 7 124. 5 124. 5 124.8 128. 2 140. 9 151. 1 154. 6 155. 2 a Excludes intermediate materials for food manufacturing and manufactured animal feeds; includes, in part, grain products for further processing. Source: Department of Labor. O*7 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS In the month ended February 15, prices received by farmers increased 1% percent. Higher prices for potatoes/ wh corn, dry beans, and lettuce were partially offset by lower prices for cattle, hogs, and eggs. Prices paid were also about 1% percent. The actual parity ratio was up 1 point and the adjusted ratio was unchanged. 1967=100 Index, 1967 =100 220 200 PRICES RECEIVED CALL FARM PRODUCTS) PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES 120 100 RATIO J/ 120 100 RATIO J/ 120 PARITY RATIO (ACTUAL) 100 A, .f 90 * on »', 60 - '/mm***"*** 70 .»<»* „ 1 1 I I I ! I I I I 1968 ! | 1 1 I ! 1 1 I 1 t 1 i 1 1969 1 1 1 ! 1 ! ! 1 ! t I i 1970 ! 1 II I ! I t ! 1971 I 1 1 ! »«** t 1 ! 1965___ 1966 1967 1968 _ 1969___ 1970 __ 1971 1972 1973 1973: J a n 1 5 _ _ Febl5___ _ Mar 15 _ Apr 15 May 15 June 15 July 15 Aug 15- _ Sept 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 1974: Jan 15 Feb 15_ 98 105 100 103 108 110 112 126 172 144 149 159 157 163 172 172 207 191 184 181 184 200 203 Crops 103 105 100 101 97 100 107 115 164 131 133 140 143 154 170 164 195 183 182 181 193 211 223 'Percentage ratio of Index of prices received by farmers to index oi prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates on 1910-14=100 base. 28 ! ! 1 ! ! ! i i t i i 1i i r i i 1973 t i i i t I i r i T i 70 60 1974 COWOl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Prices paid by farmers items, Family Livestock All Producinterest, and living tion taxes, and products wage rates items items Index, 1967=100 94 94 96 95 105 98 99 98 100 100 100 100 102 104 104 104 117 106 109 109 114 118 114 110 116 119 120 115 122 124 134 127 178 145 138 146 132 134 153 129 134 131 161 136 174 132 138 138 134 139 168 140 143 143 136 169 173 138 149 146 148 179 146 138 141 217 157 151 142 154 150 198 142 153 187 150 182 152 153 146 178 154 156 147 192 149 161 157 190 153 161 159 Prices i"eeeived by i armers All farm products ! 1972 J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO IHDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES, ON 1910-14=100 BASE. SOURCE* DEPARTMENT OF AGRiCUlTURE Period 80 ..tfllllUlltllsV^ •«.»******»••» [ 1 90 «X* .XV** Parity ratio 1 Actual 77 80 74 73 74 72 69 74 88 80 82 86 83 85 87 88 102 95 91 88 89 94 95 Adjusted2 82 86 79 79 80 77 74 79 91 82 84 88 86 87 90 90 105 98 94 91 92 95 95 2 The adjusted parity ratio reflects Government payments made directly p^farmers. Source: Department of Agriculture. MONEY, SECURITY STOCK The seasonally adjusted money stock increased at an annual rate of 14.2 percent in February. From February 1973 to February 1974 it grew 5.7 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 400 360 320 280 240 200 160 1973 1968 SOURCE* BOARD Of GOVERNORS OF THE FEDEBAl RESERVE SYSTEM 1974 .COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures, billions of dollars] Ivloney stoc k Time Time CurCurand and DeDerency rency savings savings mand mand outoutTotal dedededeside side posits 1 posits 1 posits l positsl banks banks Seasonal!}j adjusted Unadjustec I 43. 4 158. 1 204. 2 44. 3 207.6 163.3 203. 2 162. 5 46. 1 194. 4 167.7 46.9 214.7 193. 2 172. 2 49. 1 50.0 229. 2 227.6 228. 1 177.7 52. 6 182. 6 53. 5 241. 9 188.4 270. 9 269. 8 56. 9 198. 7 313.3 263.0 57.9 205. 1 311.8 208. 8 363. 1 62.6 61. 6 278. 1 215. 5 361. 8 57. 1 199.6 206. 8 263. 5 317. 6 56. 8 316. 9 200. 4 57. 5 323. 5 255. 2 56. 8 198. 4 323. 3 200. 1 58. 0 332. 6 331. 1 57. 4 198. 1 255. 5 58. 6 200. 8 202. 6 260. 9 337. 3 58. 3 337.6 203. 4 342. 6 58. 9 257. 9 58. 7 199. 2 342.6 59. 4 206. 2 263. 6 204. 1 345. 8 59. 4 344. 5 59. 5 207. 0 349. 4 59. 9 205. 7 347.6 265.7 59. 8 206. 4 262. 9 202. 9 355. 0 60. 0 356. 6 205. 2 60. 2 357. 9 263. 9 203. 8 359.2 60. 1 60. 4 206. 1 266. 0 358. 9 60. 4 205. 6 360. 2 207. 9 359. 9 270. 5 61. 4 00. 9 209. 1 358. 7 208. 8 62. 6 61. 6 363. 1 278. 1 215. 5 361. 8 207. 8 276.8 369. 6 215. 3 61. 8 61. 5 368. 9 210. 0 374. 1 62. 6 269. 7 61. 8 207. 9 373. 8 Pvloney stoc k Period Total 1968: Dec 1969: Dec 1970: Dec 1971 : Dec 1972: Dec__ 1973: Dec _ 1973: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June_ July Aug__ Sept Oct Nov Dec 1974: Jan Feb » deposits at commercial banks. __ 201. 5 208. 6 221. 2 235. 2 255. 7 270. 4 256. 7 257. 9 258. 1 259. 4 262. 4 265. 5 266. 4 266. 2 265. 4 266. 5 268. 8 270. 4 269. 6 272. 6 U.S. Government demand deposits 1 5. 0 5. 6 7. 3 6. 9 7.4 6.3 8. 1 9. 9 10. 4 8. 3 8. 7 7. 1 6.5 4. 1 5. 3 6. 0 4. 3 6. 3 8. 0 6. 5 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 PRIVATE LIQUID ASSET HOLDINGS - NONFINAKCIAL INVESTORS Private nonfinancial investors increased their holdings of liquid assets in February by $8.6 billion (seasonally justed). Most of the change was due to increases in deposits at financial institutions, reflecting generally declining short-term open market interest rates in February. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 1,200 AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1,100 1,100 1,000 1,000 900 900 800 800 700 700 CURRENCY AND DEPOSITS 600 600 500 500 400 M 1 I I I 1 1M t I M I I I 1I I I I M M I I f f I I 1969 1970 1968 I ?M f M I t M f t M I M T f II 400 I M f M M IM 1971 1972 1974 1973 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Currtjncy and deposits Total liquid assets Period Time d eposits TVk+al Currency Demand deposits Cf\m mercial banks 1967: 1968: 1969: 1970: 1971: 1972: 1973: Dec___ Dec_ _ Dec_ Dec _ Dee_ Dec Dec 1973: Jan_ Feb_ Mar __ __ Apr May... June _ July Aug_ Sept. Get Nov Dec 1974: Jan" Feb » _ _ _ _ ShortNonbank term Savings marketthrift bonds instituable setions curities Negotiable certificates of deposit 643. 3 704. 4 737. 3 785. 1 867. 1 977. 4 1, 089. 5 521. 0 564. 8 583. 3 632. 8 720. 1 814. 7 883. 3 40. 4 43. 4 46. 1 49. 1 52. 6 56. 9 61. 6 130.0 140. 0 144 5 153. 1 161. 7 175.0 180. 6 156. 4 174. 5 177. 3 199.2 233.8 264.8 294. 1 1942 206. 9 215. 4 231. 4 272.0 318. 1 347. 0 51. 0 51.4 51. 1 51. 3 53.7 57.0 59.9 39. 5 46. 8 64. 9 53. 3 39. 6 39. 1 53. 8 987. 0 995. 9 1, 008. 2 1, 020. 0 1, 032. 4 1, 043. 5 1, 051. 7 1, 060. 9 1, 067. 5 1, 072. 6 1, 080. 0 1, 089. 5 822. 9 829. 0 834. 3 839. 9 846. 9 855. 7 859. 9 862. 2 865.0 871.0 877.4 883. 3 57. 1 57.5 58. 0 58. 6 58. 9 59. 4 59. 5 59. 8 60.2 60.4 60. 9 61. 6 175.4 175. 7 175. 4 175. 6 177. 7 180.2 180.7 179.7 178.6 178.9 180. 3 180. 6 267. 7 269. 2 271. 4 273.4 275. 7 278. 3 280.0 283. 1 285.6 289.3 291. 8 294 1 322. 7 326. 6 329. 5 332. 3 334 6 337.8 339.7 339.7 340.5 342.4 344 5 347. 0 57. 3 57. 6 57. 9 58.2 58. 5 58. 8 59. 0 59.2 59.4 59.5 59.7 59.9 39.2 38. 1 40. 3 42. 6 44 6 45.4 45. 9 48.4 50. 1 50. 8 52.2 53. 8 49.6 53.3 56. 0 56.4 58.4 60.8 61s 1 58. 0 56.3 57.2 1, 097. 9 1, 106. 5 888. 0 896. 0 61. 8 62. 6 179. 0 180.8 297. 7 301.0 349. 4 351. 6 60. 0 60. 2 54 1 53.3 59.9 61; 1 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 30 U.S. G overnment se curities 19. 1 22.4 9.0 Commercial paper 12. 8 18.9 29.1 23. 0 29,7 39. 3 57.2 247 40.3 27. 4 26.9 26.2 26. 1 26.4 27.3 28. 5 30.2 32.0 443 23. 9 27; 3 35. 3 3&4 344 35.3 35.9 35.8 RANK LOANS, INVESTMENTS, DEBITS, AND RESERVES I loans and investments (seasonally adjusted) at all commercial banks increased at an annual rate of 15.0 . _ ^nt in February, down from a 16.9 percent annual rate in January. Net borrowed reserves increased by $238 million during the month. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 700 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 700 ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, END OF MONTH 600 600 500 500 TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS 400 400 300 300 200 200 INVESTAvAENT IN U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 100 I f I I! I I M II 1968 I f ! f I I I I II I 1969 i it i I i i t fi 1970 ! f I I ! I I t I ! I t t t I 1 I t TI 1. 1972 1971 1973 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM All commercial banks (seaso nally adjust ed data) End of period L Dans Investrnents Total loans ComTotal, and U.S. Gov- Other mercial invest- excludernment securiing interand indus- securities ments ties bank trial Bank debits outside New York City (232 centers) , seasonally adjusted annualx rates AJl membe r banks 2 Total reserves Billions of dollars 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973* 1973: Feb Mar _ Apr _ May__ June— __ July v"_ Aug Sept" _ _ Oct *v Nov Dec v 1974: Jan*> Feb * 1 3 390. 2 401. 7 435. 5 484. 8 556. 4 625.4 575.4 583. 6 589. 6 597. 7 602. 0 608. 2 616. 0 618. 2 621. 7 624. 6 625. 4 633. 6 641. 0 258. 2 279. 1 291. 7 4 320. 3 377. 8 444. 5 397. 2 405. 8 411. 1 417. 4 420. 3 427. 3 435. 3 438. 1 440. 0 443. 6 444. 5 450. 2 454. 7 3 3 95. 9 105. 7 110. 0 115. 9 129. 7 156. 3 138. 1 141. 8 143. 9 146. 8 148. 2 151. 4 153. 6 154. 0 154. 0 155. 5 156. 3 158. 5 159. 7 3 60. 7 51. 5 57. 9 60. 1 61. 9 53. 2 60. 6 60. 4 61. 0 61. 0 61. 6 59. 6 57. 7 56. 3 54. 9 54. 5 53. 2 53. 9 55. 7 Debits during period to demand deposit accounts except interbank and U.S. Government. 2 Averages of daily figures. Annual data are for December. Tinning June 1§69, data include all bank-premises subsidiaries and other ant majority-owned domestic subsidiaries; earlier data include coml banks ©nly. of Jume 1971, Farmers Home Administration notes totaling about $0.7 are classified as other securities rather than as loans. 1974 Borrowings at Excess Federal Free reserves Reserve reserves Banks Millions o t dollars 71. 3 71. 1 85. 9 104. 4 116. 7 127.7 117. 6 117. 4 117. 5 119. 3 120. 1 121. 3 123. 0 123. 8 126. 8 120. 5 127. 7 129. 5 130. 0 3 4 4,360 5, 150 5, 717 6,443 7,580 9, 632 8, 848 9, 114 9, 044 9, 275 y,4i4 9, 8 A3 w, 144 9, 893 10, 257 10, 612 10, 544 10, 739 27, 221 28, 031 29, 265 31, 329 5 31, 353 35, 068 31, 742 31,973 32, 277 32, 393 32, 028 33, 542 33, 785 M, 019 34, 912 34, 727 35, 068 36, 655 35, 190 455 257 272 165 5 219 262 205 295 152 118 59 343 246 237 200 204 262 236 141 765 1, 086 321 107 1, 049 1,298 1,593 1,858 6 1, 721 1,786 1, 789 2,051 2, 143 1, 861 1,467 1, 399 1, 298 1, 044 1, 187 -310 Q9Q -49 58 s -830 -1,036 — 1, 388 -1,563 -I, 569 -1, 668 -1, 730 -1. 708 -1,897 - 1, 624 -1, 267 - 3 , 1 95 — 1, 036 -808 -1, 046 5 Beginning November '.», 11)72 adjusted to include certain reserve deficiencies on which penalties can be waived for a transition period in connection with adaptation to Regulation J. 8 Beginning April 1973, includes seasonal borrowings. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 31 CONSUMER AND REAL ESTATE CREDIT Consumer credit (seasonally unadjusted) decreased $1.8 billion during January. The decrease a year earlier ' $0.3 billion. Seasonally adjusted consumer instalment credit rose $0.9 billion in January. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TOTAL CONSUMER CREDIT OUTSTANDING 20 IB iz SEASON.MVf ADJUSTED (ENLARGEE) SCALE) y**v ,—\ INS' tALMENT CREDIT EX TENDED r j ^f ^^*^ ^^ r>~-——••"— \ —.' — •*•! _ :r~"^* ^_^~^1 x*O^^—— — --— ~" |if -^^V"^ .^A ^ 17 10 INSTALMENT CREDIT REPAID 8 /If I ! 1 ( 1 ! I ! !F V 1 M I f I M f M ? ! f ! I 1 '1 F ? f 1 1969 1968 F f F ! f 1 f f 1 F f 1970 1971 f F f I f ! F ? ! f F F F J F f f F f f F 1 1972 1973 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 1974 _ _ 89, 883 96, 239 100, 783 110, 770 121, 146 127, 163 138, 394 157, 564 180, 486 157, 564 157, 227 157, 582 159, 320 161, 491 164, 277 167, 083 169, 148 171, 978 173, 035 174, 840 176, 969 180, 486 178, 686 70, 893 76, 245 79, 428 87, 745 97, 105 102, 064 111, 295 127, 332 147, 437 127, 332 127, 368 127, 959 129, 375 131, 022 133, 531 136, 018 138, 212 140, 810 142, 093 143, 610 145, 400 147, 437 146, 575 28, 437 30, 010 29, 796 32, 948 35, 527 35, 184 38, 664 44, 129 51, 130 44, 129 44, 353 44, 817 45, 610 46, 478 47, 518 48, 549 49, 352 50, 232 50, 557 51, 092 51, 371 51, 130 50, 617 H COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISEES 20, 237 21, 662 23, 235 25, 932 28, 652 30, 345 32, 865 36, 922 41, 425 36, 922 36, 870 37, 108 37, 486 37, 695 38, 376 38, 928 39, 440 40, 064 40, 397 40, 651 41, 116 41, 425 41, 352 1 Also Includes other consumer goods paper, and home improvement loans, not2 shown separately. Consists of single-payment loans, charge accounts, and service credit, 32 J f 1 I 1 1 1 1 lK 6 [Millions of dollars] Consum er instalme nt credit e xtended Consu mer credit outstandin g (end of p eriod; and r epaid (seas on ally adjiisted) Lmad justed) To tal [nstalment Automofc ile paper NonAutornoTotal instal- Extended Repaid Extended Repaid Total l Personal bile ment 2 paper loans Period 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 _ 1973 1972: Dec 1973: Jan Feb Mar__ Apr Mav June_ July Aug_ Sept Oct Nov Dec _ 1974: Jan M 18, 990 19, 994 21, 355 23, 025 24, 041 25, 099 27, 099 30, 232 33, 049 30, 232 29, 859 29, 623 29, 945 30, 469 30, 746 31, 065 30, 936 31, 168 30, 942 31, 230 31, 569 33, 049 32, 111 78, 661 82, 832 87, 171 99, 984 109, 146 112, 158 124, 281 142, 951 165, 083 12, 627 13, 304 13, 434 13, 852 13, 465 13, 932 13, 646 14, 542 14,294 13, 691 14, 149 14, 275 12, 677 13, 714 70, 463 77, 480 83, 988 91, 667 99, 786 107, 199 115, 050 126, 914 144, 978 10, 964 11, 355 11, 437 11, 808 12, 061 11, 941 12, 034 12, 544 12, 399 12, 332 12, 449 12, 549 12, 267 12, 797 27, 208 27, 192 26, 320 31, 083 32, 553 29, 794 34, 873 40, 194 46, 453 3,763 4,006 3,972 4,001 3,822 3, 989 3, 762 3,930 3,968 3, 939 3, 912 3, 819 3, 315 3, 492 23, 706 25, 619 26, 534 27, 931 29, 974 30, 137 31, 393 34, 729 39, 452 2, 977 3,097 3, 145 3,225 3,218 3,261 3, 253 3,334 3, 293 3,406 3, 427 3, 471 3, 338 3,433 2 End of period, unadjusted. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Mortgage debt outstanding, nonfarm, 1- to 4family houses 3 212, 223, 236, 251, 266, 280, 307, 346, * 383, 346, 900 600 100 200 800 200 800 100 600 100 » 353, 900 » 365, 700 " 376, 600 *>383, 600 ND YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES i the end of February to mid-March, interest rates generally increased. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM CORPORATE Aaa BONDS (MOODY'S) 1968 1974 SOURCEs SEE TABLE BiLOW [Percent per annum ] High-grade U.S. Gov srnment secu pity yields municipal 3-month bonds 3-5 year Taxable3 2 Treasury (Standard & issues bonds bills i Poor's) 4 5.339 4.51 5.59 5.25 6. 677 5. 81 6. 85 6. 10 6. 458 6. 51 7. 37 6. 59 4. 348 5.74 5.77 5. 70 4. 071 5. 27 5.85 5. 63 7. 041 5. 18 6. 92 6. 30 Period 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1973: Feb _ __ Mar ADF _ _ _ May June July Aug. _ Sept Oct Nov. Dec 1974: Jan Feb Mar Week ended: 1974: Feb 15— Mar 22— 1__ 8__ 15__ 22__ 1 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Aaa 6.18 7. 03 8. 04 7.39 7.21 7. 44 5. 558 6. 054 6. 289 6. 348 7. 188 8.015 8. 672 8. 478 7. 155 7.866 7. 364 7. 755 7. 060 6. 61 6. 85 6. 74 6. 78 6. 76 7. 49 7. 75 7. 16 6. 81 6. 96 6. 80 6.94 6.77 6. 14 6. 20 6. 11 6. 22 6. 32 6. 53 6. 81 6. 42 6. 26 6.31 6. 35 6. 56 6. 54 5. 12 5. 30 5. 16 5. 12 5. 15 5. 39 5. 47 5. 11 5.05 5. 17 5. 12 5.20 5. 19 7. 22 7. 29 7. 26 7. 29 7. 37 7. 45 7. 68 7. 63 7. 60 7. 67 7.68 7.83 7.85 7. 97 8.03 8. 09 8. 06 8. 13 8. 24 8. 53 8.63 8.41 8.42 8.48 8. 58 8. 59 7.081 7. 018 7. 188 7. 675 7. 920 8. 047 6.70 6. 76 6. 93 7. 06 7. 16 6. 50 6. 56 6.62 6.71 6. 75 5. 16 5. 21 5. 24 5. 24 5. 28 7. 85 7. 87 7.87 7. 92 7. 99 8. 59 8.61 8. 59 8. 60 8.63 6. 22 6. 85 7. 14 7.27 7.99 9. 18 10. 21 10. 23 8. 92 8. 94 9. 08 8.66 7. 82 FHA new home mortgage yields 5 7.13 a 19 9. 05 7.78 7.53 8. 08 7. 55 7. 56 7. 63 7.73 7. 79 7.89 8. 19 9. 18 8. 97 8. 86 8. 78 8 54 2 Rate on new issues within period. Selected note and bond issues. ' April 1953 to date, bonds due or callable 10 years and after. Weekly data are Wednesday figures. Data for first of the month, based ©n the maximum permissible interest rate percent beginning January 22, 1974) and 30-year mortgages paid in ISyears. Prime commercial paper, 4-6 Baa months 6.94 5.90 7.83 7.81 7.72 9. 11 8. 56 5. 11 8. 16 4. 69 8. 24 8. 15 Corpora te bonds (Moc>dy's) 7.75 7. 69 7. 88 8. 00 8. 18 Sources: Department of Housing and Urban Development, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 33 COMMON STOCK PRICES, YIELD, AND EARNINGS Stock prices increased 9 percent from mid-February to mid-March. Index, 194t-43=1t Index, 1941-43=10 120 120 COMPOSITE PRICE INDEX FOR 500 COMMON STOCKS 110 100 90 110 100 V \ 90 80 70 70 f ! ! f 1 60 PERCENT 1 f ! 1 ! I 1f ! 11 \ ! ! I1 j it r i 111 60 PERCENT DIVIDEND YIELD ON COMMON STOCKS RATIO ^b RATIO 25 PRICE/EARNIN 3S RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS on \ ' — — — \ ^^\ _ OA , ' r 10 A \ ! ! 1968 ' i , i i \ \ ! \ 1970 1969 \ \ . — x^ ^•v^ t 1 ! ! f f 1973 1972 1971 15 SOURCE: STANDARD &. POOR'S CORPORATION Period 1968_._ 1969 1970 ... 1971 1972_ _ 1973 1973: Feb Mar __ Apr May June__ July Aug _ _ _ _ _ Sept _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Oct Nov _ _ Dec 1974: Jan Feb Week ended: 1974: Feb 1 8 15 22 Mar 1 8 15 ! ! K 10 1974 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Price ndex Industrials 1 Total Total 98.70 97. 84 83.22 98.29 109. 20 107. 43 114. 16 112. 42 110. 27 107. 22 104. 75 105. 83 103. 80 105. 61 109. 84 102. 03 94. 78 96. 11 93. 45 107. 49 107. 13 91.29 108. 35 121. 79 120. 44 127. 87 126. 05 123. 56 119. 95 117. 20 118. 65 116. 75 118. 52 123. 42 114. 64 106. 16 107. 18 104. 13 1941-^43 = 10 105. 77 86.33 103. 75 87. 06 80. 22 87. 87 102. 80 99. 78 119. 39 113. 91 118. 58 107. 13 125. 56 117. 54 124. 53 116. 41 120. 38 111. 24 116. 48 107. 44 114. 75 104. 83 116. 31 105. 94 115. 98 104. 35 116. 60 105. 16 122. 30 106. 58 115. 48 96. 97 107. 44 86. 57 108. 06 87. 63 104. 31 86. 85 107. 103. 101. 104. 106. 108. 111. 108.66 104. 11 100. 58 104. 15 108. 41 109. 22 111. 33 96.21 93. 04 91. 16 93. 92 95. 84 97. 11 99. 34 39 67 43 68 89 48 18 Consumers' goods Capital goods 1 includes 500 common stocks: 426 industrials, 55 public utilities, and 20 railroads. Weekly indexes for capital and consumer goods are Wednesday figures; all2 other weekly indexes are averages of daily figures. Aggregate cash dividends (based on latest known annual rate) divided by the aggregate monthly market value of the stocks Jr. the group. Annual yields 34 1 90. 41 86. 54 84. 55 86.91 89. 39 91. 75 93. 92 Public utilities Railroads Dividend yield 2 (percent) 66.42 62. 64 54. 48 59. 33 56.90 53. 47 57. 52 55. 94 55. 34 55. 43 54. 37 53. 31 50. 14 52. 31 53. 22 48. 30 45. 74 48.60 48. 13 48.84 45. 95 32. 13 41. 94 44. 11 38.05 40.61 39. 29 38. 88 36. 14 34.35 35. 22 33. 76 35. 49 38. 24 39. 74 41. 48 44.37 41. 89 3.07 3. 24 3. 83 3. 14 2. 84 3. 06 2. 80 2.83 2. 90 3. 01 3. 06 3. 04 3. 16 3. 13 3. 05 3.36 3. 70 3.64 3. 81 48. 56 47. 93 47.85 48. 19 48. 56 48. 39 48. 49 1 42. 59 41. 58 40. 81 41. 96 43.48 43. 19 43. 25 3.65 3. 81 3.92 3. 82 3. 70 3. 64 3. 58 Price/ earnings ratio a are3 averages of monthly data. Weekly data are Wednesday figures. Ratio of price index for last day of quarter to earnings for 12 months with that quarter. Annual ratios are averages of quarterly data. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation. 17.66 16.48 15.69 18.50 18. 20 16. 40 14. 42 14. 12 FEDERAL FINANCE * ^DERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBT In the first 7 months of fiscal 1974 there was a deficit of $6.3 billion/ a year earlier the deficit was $15.1 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 300 300 260 - 260 220 220 180 180 140 140 100 Y (ENLARGED SCALE) +20 (ENLARGED SCALE) +20 SURPLUS (+) OR DEFICIT (-} -20 -20 JL -40 1964 _L 1965 1967 _L JL I 1966 1968 1969 1970 FISCAL YEARS 1971 -40 1972 SOURCES) TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET 1973 1974 1975 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Federal debt ( end of period) Period Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (— ) Total ! Fiscal year: 1963 1964 Held by the public 106.6 112. 7 111. 3 118.6 -4.8 -5.9 310.8 316.8 254.5 257.6 1965 1966_ 1967 1968 1969 116. 8 130. 9 149. 6 153. 7 187.8 118.4 134. 7 158. 3 17&8 184. 5 -1.6 -3.8 -8.7 -25. 2 3.2 323. 2 329.5 341.3 369.8 367.1 261.6 264.7 267.5 290.6 279.5 1970 1971 1972 1973 19742 1975 2 193. 7 188.4 208.6 232.2 270.0 295. 0 196. 6 211.4 231.9 246.5 274. 7 304.4 -2. 8 -23.0 -23.2 -14.3 -4.7 -9.4 382.6 409. 5 437.3 468. 4 486.4 508.0 284.9 304. 3 323.8 343.0 346. 5 359.0 127.2 147.7 142.2 154.0 -15. 1 -6.3 461.0 479.0 342. 7 348.3 Cumulative totals for first 7 months: Fiscal year 1973 __ _ Fiscal year 1974 _ _ 1 Excludes non-interest-bearing public debt securities held by IMF; 2 Estimates from the Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1975. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 35 FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION For the first 7 months of fiscal 1974 budget receipts were $20,5 billion higher than a year earlier and budget outlays $11.8 billion higher. OF DOLLARS OF DOLLARS 120 120 I _J OUTLAYS 200 200 160 160 120 120 80 I 1964 1965 1967 I 1969 1963 I 40 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 FISCAL SOURCES: TREASURY WPARTMENT AND OFFICE OF AND €QUMC!i. OF ECONOMIC ADVISEES [Billions of dollars] (Outlays Recei]3>tS Nationa 1 Period 1963 1984 1965 1966 . 1967 1968 Total .... „__„_ .. 1970 19711972 1973_____. i 1975 i Cumulative totals for first 7 months: Fiscal year 1973— . Fiscal year 1974 1 Individual Corporation income income taxes taxes Other Total 106.0 112.7 116. 8 130. 9 149. 6 153.7 187. 8 193. 7 188.4 208. 6 232. 2 270.0 295.0 47. 6 48. 7 48. 8 55. 4 61. 5 68. 7 87. 2 90, 4 86.2 94. 7 103. 2 118.0 129.0 21. 6 23. 5 25. 5 30. 1 34. 0 28. 7 36. 7 32. 8 26.8 32. 2 36. 2 43.0 48.0 37. 4 40. 5 42. 6 45, 3 54. 1 56. 3 63. 9 70. 5 75.4 81. 7 92.8 109.0 118,0 111. 3 118.6 118. 4 134. 7 158. 3 178. 8 184. 5 196.6 211.4 231. 9 246. 5 274.7 304. 4 52. 3 53.6 49. 6 56. 8 70. 1 80. 5 81. 2 80. 3 77.7 78. 3 76.0 80.6 87.7 48. 1 49. 6 46. 0 54. 2 67. 5 77.4 77.9 77. 2 74. 5 75. 2 73. 3 78.4 84. 6 127.2 147.7 64.1 72.5 15.2 16.7 47.9 58.6 142.2 154.0 42.0 44. 1 40.7 43.7 Estimates from the Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1975. 36 Total Department of Defense? military Interna- Health tional and Inaffairs income terest Other and security 4. 1 4. 1 4.3 4.5 4. 5 4. 6 3. 8 3. 6 3. 1 3.7 3.0 3.9 4. 1 1.7 2. 0 9^ 4. S. 2 26.9 27. 4 31.4 37. 8 43.7 49.4 56. 6 70. 6 82. 0 91. 5 108. 3 126. 4 20. G 22.8 27. 8 29. 1 20.3 24. 2 26. 7 30. 7 33. 2 36. 2 34. 4 37. 8 40.5 47. 2 53. 2 54. 2 57. 1 51. 3 58. 0 12.4 15.8 34.8 34. 1 as 10. 4 11 3 12. 6 13. 7 15. 8 18.3 19. 6 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget, 1DERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS cording fo revised estimates for calendar year 1973, there was a surplus of $1 billion. In 1972 ,out $16 billion. was a deficit of BILLIONS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 300 1300 140 120 120 +20 -20 -40 JSSL ill HI PfiL n n nn n n ^ DEFICIT I ! 1967 +20 ' SURPLUS 1 1 1 1H % v& 1 1968 1 ! 1969 1 | | | !%j lil as-M-1 4* ! 1970 CALENDAR YEARS % % 1 HI && \ -20 ,___JL-_J-_=JL- \ 1972 1971 OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars^ quarterly data at seasonally adjusted Federal (jrovernm ent receip ts fiscal year : 1971 1972 1973 ^ _ 1974 * _ _ _ 1975 i _ _ _ Calendar year: 1970 1971 1972 ^___ Fee rates] Go1/ernmenlb expend itures Surplus or Subsidies Less: Grantsdeficit Contriless CorpoIndirect Purin-aid Wage -, i i.-p ersonai _ 1 )> current accruals income rate business butions chases Trans- to Net and profits less and surplus of Total tax for Total of goods fer p&yand interest nontax and tax nontax social inGovernlocal disand ments paid receipts accruals product accruals surance services government en- burse- accounts terprises ments ments 192.6 213. 7 243. 3 280. 5 304 8 87.4 100. 1 107. 2 123.7 135. 3 32.2 34.7 43. 8 50. 3 50. 2 20. 1 19.9 20. 9 23. 3 27. 5 52. 9 59.0 71. 4 83. 2 91. 8 212. 6 233. 2 255. 1 285. 2 313. 4 95.9 103. 2 104 5 11L 5 121. 6 69.7 78. 6 89.4 107,2 123. 5 26.8 32. 9 40.4 44.1 46.6 143 13.4 144 18.2 19.6 5. 8 5, 2 6.4 42 2. 1 0. 1 .0 ,0 .0 .0 -19.9 -19. 5 — 11. 8 -47 -8.6 192. 0 198. 9 228. 7 265.0 92. 2 89. 9 107, 9 114.5 31. 0 33. 3 37. 8 49.5 19. 3 20.4 19. 9 21.0 49. 5 55. 2 63.0 80. 1 203. 9 96. 2 221. 0 98. 1 244 6 104 4 2640 106.6 63. 2 749 82.9 95. 4 244 29. 1 37.7 40. 9 14 6 13.6 13. 5 15. 9 5.5 5.3 6. 1 5. 1 .0 .0 .0 ,0 -11.9 — 22. 2 -15. 9 1.0 III__ 229. 6 !¥___ 236.9 108. 1 111. 3 38.0 40.7 19.9 20. 3 63. 6 64 6 237. 0 102. 3 260. 3 102. 7 80. 8 91. 0 34 4 46. 1 13. 4 13. 7 6. 2 8.7 • .0 .0 -7. 4 -23. 4 253.6 262.4 269. 5 274.6 108. 5 111.4 116.9 121.0 46. 6 50.8 51.0 49.7 20. 7 21.2 20.8 21. 5 77.8 79. 1 80. 8 82. 5 258. 6 262.4 265. 6 269. 6 105. 5 107.3 106.8 106.8 91. 8 93. 8 96.6 99.6 41. 1 40. 5 40. 5 41.6 14 7 15. 6 16. 2 17.0 5. 5 5. 1 5.3 4.6 .0 -5. 0 .0 4.0 5.0 1973: I II III.IV *_ 1 -40 1973 QF CQMMERCS reriod 0 m pi ^ I ! mi Hi ^n Estimates. —.1 .0 .0 Sources: Department of Commerce and Office of Management Budget. 37 UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE POSTAGE AND FEES PAID U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS WASHINGTON, D.C. 2O4O2 OFFICIAL BUSINESS First-Class Mail Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING The Nation's Income, Expenditure, and Saving Gross National Product or Expenditure National Income Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Measures of Unemployment and Part-Time Employment Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Weekly Hours of Work—Selected Industries Average Hourly and Weekly Earnings—Selected Industries PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Production of Selected Manufactures Weekly Indicators of Production New Construction New Housing Starts and Applications for Financing Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and New Orders Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. Balances on Goods, Services, and Transfers U.S. Overall Balances on International Transactions PRICES Consumer Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid .by Farmers „ MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock Private Liquid Asset Holdings—Nonfinancial Investors Bank Loans, Investments, Debits, and Reserves Consumer and Real Estate Credit Bond Yields and Interest Rates Common Stock Prices, Yield, and Earnings FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays and Debt Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 NOTE.—Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. 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