Full text of Economic Indicators : March 1969
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91st Congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators March 1969 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1969 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas, Chairman WILLIAM PROXMIRE, Wisconsin, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES RICHARD BOLLING (Missouri) HALE BOGGS (Louisiana) HENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin) MARTHA W. GRIFFITHS (Michigan) WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD (Pennsylvania) WILLIAM B. WIDNALL (New Jersey) DONALD RUMSFELD (Illinois) W. E. BROCK 3d (Tennessee) BARBER B. CONABLE, Jr. (New York) SENATE JOHN SPARKMAN (Alabama) J. W. FULBRIGHT (Arkansas) HERMAN E. TALMADGE f Georgia) STUART SYMINGTON (Missouri) ABRAHAM RIB1COFF (Connecticut) JACOB K. JAVITS (New York) JACK MILLER (Iowa) LEN B. JORDAN (Idaho) CHARLES H.,PERCY (Illinois) JOHN R. STARK, Executive Director JAMES W. KNOWLES, Director of TLe search COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS PAUL W. McCRACKEN, Chairman _UENDRIK S. HOUTHAKKER HERBERT STEIN Economic Indicators -prepared under supervision of FRANCES M. JAMES [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sx CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts draum by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at 25 cents a single copy or by subscription at $3.00 per year (foreign, $4.00) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C 20402 Subscribers who wish to receive it at an earlier date after release may take advantage of provisions for airmail subscriptions. The domestic airmail subscription price is $6.10 additional per year. The 1967 revised edition of the Historical and Descriptive Supplement to Economic Indicators, which describes each series and gives annual data for years not shown in the monthly issues, is available at 70 cents a copy from the Superintendent of Documents, Government Printing Office. 11 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING THE NATION'S INCOME, EXPENDITURE, AND SAVING Current estimates indicate that gross national product advanced $16% billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter, $1% billion less than the third quarter rise and over $5 billion less than the record increase in the second quarter. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Government Persons Net receipts Disposable personal income Period Total l 1961 1962 | 1963 1964 i 1965 ! 1966 1967 1968" 1967: III__ IV...1 1968: I II...1 Ill—, 364. 4 385. 3 404. 6 438. 1 473.2 511.6 546. 3 589.0 550. 0 559.6 574. 4 586.3 592.7 602.4 PerLess: Equals: Personal sonal Interest Total consump- saving or paid and excludtion expenddistransfer ing saving interest itures payments and to fortranseigners fers 8. 1 8.6 9.7 Id 7 12. 0 13. 1 13. 9 14.4 14.0 13.9 14. 1 14.4 14, 5 14.7 356.3 376. 6 394 9 427.4 461. 3 498. 4 532. 4 574, 6 536. 1 545.7 560. 3 571.9 578. 2 587.7 335.2 355. 1 375.0 401. 2 432.8 465.5 492. 2 533.8 495. 5 502.2 519. 4 527.9 541. 1 546.8 Surplus or Less: Less: deficit Tax Equals: Trans- Equals: Trans(-), and PurTotal fers, fers, nontax interest, expend- interest, Net chases income and receipts receipts itures of goods product and and or and subsubaccounts accruals sidies 2 sidies 2 21. 2 21. 6 19. 9 26. 2 28. 4 32. 9 40. 2 40. 7 40. 5 43. 4 40. 8 44.0 37. 1 40. 9 144. 6 157. 0 168. 8 174. 1 189. 1 213. 2 227. 4 260.9 229.0 234. 8 246. 6 254.2 267.2 275.5 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968" 1967: 1968: I III. 103. 3 114. 2 124 3 127.3 139.2 157. 9 1646 190.6 165.7 171.0 180.3 184.4 195.4 202.7 149. 0 159. 9 166.9 175.4 186.9 211. 5 241.3 267.4 243.0 247. 4 256. 9 265.5 271. 3 275.9 41.3 42. 8 44 4 40,7 49. 9 55. 3 62. 9 70. 3 63. 4 63.8 66.4 69.8 71. 8 72. 8 107. 6 117. 1 122. 5 128.7 137.0 156.2 178.4 197. 2 179.6 183. 5 190. 5 195.7 199. 6 203. 0 Net Net exports of goods Total Statisand services transfers Excess of income tical Gross Gross Excess to fortransfers or discrepretained private of eigners or receipts ancy earn- domestic invest- by perof net invest-4 Equals: exports ment sons and ings 3 Less: ment Net Govern- Exports Imports exports ment 58. 7 66. 3 68. 8 76. 2 84 7 91. 6 93. 1 97. 6 93. 5 95. 9 92.8 97.4 99.9 100. 0 71. 7 83.0 87. 1 94 0 108. 1 120.8 114 3 127. 7 114 7 121. 8 119. 7 127.3 127. 1 136. 6 -13. 0 — 16. 8 -18.4 -17. 8 -23. 4 -29. 2 — 21. 1 — 30. 1 — 21. 2 -25. 9 -26. 9 —29. 9 -27.2 -36. 6 2. 6 2. 7 2.8 2. OQ 2. 8 2. 9 3. 1 2,7 3. 4 2. 6 2. 6 2.8 2.8 9, « 28.6 30.3 32.3 37. 1 39. 2 43. 1 45. 8 50.0 46. 1 46. 0 47.5 49.9 52. 6 50. 1 1 Personal income (p. 5) less personal tax and nontax payments (fines, penalties, etc.). 2 Government transfer payments to persons, foreign net transfers by Government, net interest paid by government, and subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises. 3 Undistributed corporate profits, corporate inventory valuation adjustment, capital consumption allowances, and wage accruals less disbursements. Does not include retained earnings of unincorporated business, which are included 1 in disposable personal income. 41. 3 42. 8 44. 4 46. 7 49. 9 55. 3 62. 9 70. 3 63. 4 63.8 66.4 69.8 71. 8 72. 8 -4 3 -2.9 1.8 -1.4 2.2 1.7 -13.8 -6.5 — 14 0 — 12. 5 -10.3 -11.3 -4. 1 -.4 International Business Period Expenditures 23. 0 25. 1 26. 4 28. 6 32. 3 38. 1 41. 0 48. 1 40. 6 42. 6 46. 0 47.9 49. 4 49. 1 5. 6 5. I 5.9 8.5 6. 9 5. 1 4. 8 2.0 5. 4 3. 4 1. 5 2.0 3.3 1.0 -3. 0 -2. 5 -3. 1 -5. 7 -4 1 -2. 2 — 1. 7 .8 -2. 1 —. 8 1. 1 .8 -. 5 1.8 520. 8 559. 8 590.8 633. 7 688.0 750. 9 793.2 865.5 798. 6 815.2 835.9 856.5 876.3 893. 2 -0. 8 .5 —. 3 -1. 3 -3. 1 -3.3 -3. 5 -4 8 -3. 4 -42 -47 -3.6 -5.3 -5.6 Gross national product or expenditure 520. 1 560.3 590. 5 632.4 684 9 747. 6 789. 7 860.6 795.3 811.0 831.2 852.9 871.0 887.4 4 Private business investment, purchases of capital goods by private nonprofit institutions, and residential housing. 5 Net foreign investment with sign changed. NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning I960. Source: Department of Commerce. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OR EXPENDITURE Gross national product (seasonally adjusted) increased at an annual rate of nearly 8 percent in the fourth quarter, according to current estimates. The rise in physical output was at a rate of about 3Vi percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 900 800 800 700 700 600 500 400 GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES 100 1962 1967 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCEi DEPARTMENT OF CO/AMERCE Period 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 _ 1964_ 1965_ 1966 1967 1968 1967: III IV 1968: I II III. IV Total Personal Gross congross Total private sump- domestic national gross tion product national investin 1958 product expend- ment prices itures Billions of dollars; quarterly 447.3 475.9 487.7 497. 2 529.8 551. 0 581. 1 617. 8 657.1 673. 1 706. 7 675. 6 681. 8 692. 7 703.4 712. 3 718. 4 447. 3 483.7 503.7 520. 1 560. 3 590. 5 632. 4 684. 9 747.6 789. 7 860. 6 795. 3 811. 0 831. 2 852.9 871. 0 887. 4 290. 1 311. 2 325.2 335. 2 355. 1 375. 0 401. 2 432. 8 465. 5 492. 2 533. 8 495. 5 502. 2 519. 4 527.9 541. 1 546. 8 60. 9 75. 3 74. 8 71. 7 83. 0 87. 1 94. 0 108. 1 120. 8 114. 3 127. 7 114. 7 121.8 119. 7 127.3 127. 1 136.6 i This category corresponds closely with budget expenditures for national defense, shown on p. 36. '-' (<ross national product in current prices divided by gross national product in l9,r>H prices. 1968 Net exports of goods and services Government purchases of goods services Federal Total National Total defense1 Other and State and local Implicit price deflator for total GNP, 1958 =1002 data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 2. 2 .1 4. 0 5. 6 5. 1 5. 9 8. 5 6. 9 5. 1 4. 8 2. 0 5. 4 3.4 1. 5 2.0 3. 3 1.0 94. 2 97. 0 99. 6 107. 6 117. 1 122. 5 128. 7 137. 0 156. 2 178. 4 197. 2 179. 6 183. 5 190. 5 195.7 199. 6 203.0 53. 6 53. 7 53. 5 57.4 63. 4 64. 2 65. 2 66. 9 77.4 90. 6 100.0 91. 3 93. 5 97. 1 100. 0 101. 2 101. 7 45. 9 46. 0 44. 9 47. 8 51. 6 50. 8 50. 0 50. 1 60. 6 72. 4 78.9 72. 9 74. 6 76. 8 79.0 79. 6 80. 0 7.7 7. 6 8. 6 9. 6 11. 8 13. 5 15. 2 16. 8 16. 8 18. 2 21. 1 18.4 19.0 20.3 21. 0 21. 5 21.7 40. 6 43. 3 46. 1 50. 2 53.7 58. 2 S3. 5 70. 1 78. 8 87. 8 97. 2 88. 4 90. 0 93. 4 95. 6 98.4 101.2 NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960. Source: Department of Commerce. 100. 0 101. 6 103. 3 104. 6 105. 8 107. 2 108. 8 110. 9 113. 8 117. 3 121. 8 117. 7 118. 9 120. 0 121.2 122. 3 123. 5 NATIONAL INCOME National income rose $1 2% billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter, according to preliminary estimates. All types of income contributed to the increase, with rises of $11 billion in employee compensation and $1 billion in interest accounting for most of it. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 700 700 j600 600 TOTAL NATIONAL INCOME V 500 500 COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES 400 400 CORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT^ 300 PROPRIETORS' AND RENTAL INCOME 100 300 TOO NET INTEREST ~i—r 1963 1964 1965 1968 1967 1966 ^PRELIMINARY. SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE OXJNOL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Total national income Period 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 " _ 1967: 111 IV 1968: I II III IV* _ _ _ _ _ 1 2 _ _ - 367. 8 400. 0 414. 5 427.3 457. 7 481. 9 518. 1 564.3 620.8 652.9 712. 8 656.9 670.9 688. 1 705.4 722. 5 735.2 Compensation of em- 1 ployees 257.8 279. 1 294. 2 302.6 323. 6 341. 0 365.7 393.8 435.6 468.2 513. 6 471.5 482.7 496.8 507.1 519. 7 530.7 Proprietors' income Farm 2 13. 4 11. 4 12. 0 12. 8 13. 0 13. 1 12. 1 14.8 15.9 14.4 15. 1 14.6 14.3 14.6 14.8 15. 4 15. 5 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 4.) Excludes farm profits of corporations engaged in farming and therefore differs from net farm income (including net inventory change) on p. 6 which includes such profits. Business and professional Rental income of persons 33. 2 35. 1 34. 2 35. 6 37. 1 37. 9 40.2 42.4 44.8 46.3 47. 8 46.6 46.8 47.2 47.8 48. 0 48. 2 15. 4 15. 6 15. 8 16. 0 16. 7 17. 1 18.0 19.0 19.8 20.3 21. 0 20.4 20.5 20.7 20.9 21. 0 21. 2 Net interest 6. 8 7. 1 8. 4 10. 0 11. 6 13. 8 15.8 18.2 20.8 23.3 26. 3 23.6 24.3 25.0 25.8 26. 7 27. 6 Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment 3 Total 41. 1 51.7 49. 9 50.3 55. 7 58. 9 66.3 76. 1 83.9 80.4 89.2 80.2 82.3 83.8 89.2 91. 6 92.0 Profits Inventory before valuation taxes 3 adjustment 41. 4 52. 1 49. 7 50. 3 55. 4 59. 4 66.8 77.8 85.6 81.6 92. 3 80.8 85.4 88.9 91. 8 92. 7 95.8 3 See Note, p. 7. NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960. Source: Department of Commerce. -0. 3 .5 .2 —.1 .3 -.5 -.5 -1.7 -1.7 — 1.2 -3. 1 -.6 -3.1 -5.1 -2.7 -1.0 -3.8 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME In February, personal income increased by $51/3 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate), somewhat more than the January increase of $21/2 billion which was depressed by higher contributions for social insurance. All types of income rose in February except farm/ wages and salaries accounted for most of the increase. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 800 I 800 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 700 700 600 600 TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME 500 500 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS \ I -JU 400 400 300 300 200 200 OTHER INCOME \ ,.,..,.,..,.„»•«••• 100 100 TRANSFER PAYMENTS 1964 1963 1965 1966 SOURCEj DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 . 1968 1968: Jan Feb Mar Apr May— June July____ Aug — Sept__. Oct Nov Dec 1969: Jan Feb»___ Total personal income 401. 0 416.8 442. 6 465. 5 497. 5 538.9 586. 8 628. 8 685. 8 654.9 663.0 670.0 672.6 678.2 683. 7 689. 2 694.1 699. 7 7oa 2 708.0 713.5 716. 1 721.4 1969 1968 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Wage Rental and Other Proprietors' income income Transfer Divi- Personal salary labor 2 Business interest payof dends disburseincome Farm and pro- persons income ments l ments fessional 12. 0 12. 0 270. 8 34. 2 15. 8 23. 4 13. 4 28. 5 12.7 278. 1 12.8 35. 6 25] o 32! 4 16. 0 13. 8 296. 1 13. 9 13. 0 37. 1 27. 7 16. 7 15. 2 33. 3 13. 1 14 9 311. 1 37. 9 17. 1 16. 5 31. 4 35. 3 12. 1 333. 7 16. 6 40. 2 18. 0 17. 8 34 9 36. 7 42. 4 18. 7 14. 8 358. 9 19. 0 19. 8 38. 7 39. 9 394. 6 20. 8 15. 9 44. 8 19. 8 21. 7 43. 1 43. 9 423. 4 23. 3 14. 4 22. 9 46. 3 20. 3 46. 8 51. 7 463. 5 15. 1 26. 1 21. 0 24. 6 52. 1 47 8 58. 6 24.7 14.4 443.0 47.1 23'. 2 20.6 49*. 4 54*. 5 449.7 25.0 14.6 47.2 20.7 23.6 49.8 54.9 452.2 25.2 14.8 50.2 47.5 20.7 23.9 57.8 453.2 25.5 14.8 47.6 50.8 20.8 24.3 58.1 25.7 457.5 14.8 58.2 24.7 47.8 20.9 51.3 462. 2 26.0 14.8 47. 9 20.9 24. 3 58.5 51.9 465. 4 26. 3 15.1 48. 0 21. 0 25. 0 52.4 59. 1 468.7 15.4 26.5 21.0 25.2 52.9 59.6 48.0 472. 8 26. 8 15.7 21. 1 4ao 53. 4 59. 9 25. 3 474. 9 27. 0 21. 2 15. 6 54 0 48. 1 60. 4 25. 3 478.9 27.3 21.2 15.5 48.2 25.4 54.3 60.8 483.3 27. 6 15.5 48.3 21.3 54 7 25. 5 61.0 486.5 27.8 15.4 48.4 55. 1 25.3 61.7 21. 3 490. 7 28. 0 15. 2 21.4 48. 5 25.4 62. 2 55. 6 1 Compensation of employees (see p. 3) excluding employer contributions for social insurance and wage accruals less disbursements. 2 Employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; compensation for injuries; directors' fees; military reserve pay; and a few other minor items. 1967 Less: Personal con- Nonagritributions cultural for social personal3 insurance income 9. 3 385. 2 400* 0 9. 6 425. 5 10. 3 448. 1 11. 8 12. 5 480. 9 13. 4 519. 5 17. 8 566. 1 2o! 4 609! 3 22. 9 665 4 22*. 1 635*. 1 22.4 643.1 22.4 649.9 22.6 652.4 22.8 658.0 22. 9 663. 4 23. 1 668. 7 23.2 673.3 23.3 67a6 682. 2 23. 4 687.0 23.5 692. 5 23.5 25.4 695. 1 25. 6 700. 6 3 Personal income exclusive of net income of unincorporated farm enterprises, farm wages, agricultural net interest, and net dividends paid by agricultural corporations. NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960. Source: Department of Commerce. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Current data indicate that persona! income rose $14 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter. The first full quarter of the tax surcharge held the gain in disposable income to $10 billion. With personal outlays up only $6 billion, the saving rate increased from 6.3 to 6.8 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 600 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 600 550 550 500 DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 450 350 N DOLLARS 3,000 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 300 DOLLARS 3,000 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 2,800 2,800 2,600 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1962 1 1963 1968 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Less : PerPersonal sonal tax and income nontax payments COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Per capita disLess: Personal outlays posable personal Equals: Personal consumption Equals: income Disexpenditures 2 Personal posable Total saving Current Nonpersonal personall Durable 1958 income outlays durable Services prices prices goods goods 1960 1961... 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966. _ _ 1967 1968 401.0 416.8 442.6 465. f> 497. 5 538.9 586.8 628.8 685.8 50.9 52.4 57.4 60. 9 59. 4 65.7 75.3 82.5 96. 9 350. 0 364.4 385.3 404 6 438. 1 473.2 511.6 546.3 589. 0 1967: 633.7 645.2 662.7 678.1 694. 3 708.2 83.6 85.6 88.3 91.9 101. 6 105.8 550.0 559.6 574.4 586.3 592. 7 602. 4 III. IV.. 1968: I... II... III. IV. Billions of dollars 333. 0 151. 3 45. 3 128. 7 44.2 343. 3 155.9 135. 1 363.7 49. 5 162.6 143.0 152. 4 384. 7 53. 9 168. 6 411. 9 59. 2 178. 7 163. 3 191. 1 444.8 66.3 175.5 478.6 70.5 206.7 188.3 506.2 72. 6 215.8 203.8 221. 0 82. 5 230. 3 548.2 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 216.4 509. 5 73. 1 205.9 74.2 218.4 516. 1 209. 6 79.0 533.5 226.5 213.9 228. 2 218.7 542.3 81.0 232. 7 223. 4 555. 6 85. 1 233. 7 228. 0 561.6 85. 1 i Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers, and personal transfer payments to foreigners. '3- See p. 2 for total personal consumption expenditures. Includes armed forces abroad. Annual data are for July 1; quarterly data are for middle of period, interpolated from monthly data. Saving as perPopulacent of tion disposable (thou-3 personal sands) income (percent) 17.0 21.2 21.6 19. 9 26. 2 28.4 32.9 40.2 40. 7 Dollars 1,883 1,937 1,983 1,909 2,064 1,968 2,136 2,013 2, 123 2, 280 2,432 2,235 2,332 2,598 2,744 2,401 2, 928 2,473 4.9 5.8 5.6 4. 9 6. 0 6.0 6.4 7.4 6. 9 180, 684 183, 756 186, 656 189,417 192, 120 194, 592 196, 920 199, 118 201, 166 40. 5 43.4 40.8 44.0 37. 1 40. 9 2,758 2,798 2, 866 2, 918 2, 942 2,982 2,404 2,418 2,454 2,474 2,478 2,483 7.4 7.8 7.1 7.5 6. 3 6. 8 199, 200, 200, 200, 201, 202, NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960. Source: Department of Commerce. 425 006 433 911 462 025 FARM INCOME Net farm income excluding inventory change (seasonally adjusted) declined about 4 percent in the fourth quarter/ however, including inventory change, it was about the same as in the third quarter. For the year 1968, net farm income excluding inventory change was 5 percent above the 1967 level; including inventory change the increase was about 514 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 60 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 60 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 50 50 REALIZED GROSS FARM INCOME \ 40 40 30 30 NET FARM INCOME INCLUDING NET INVENTORY CHANGE 20 20 \ 10 10 I 1962 1963 I I J 1964 1965 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE L967: III__ IV . 1968: I II III IV . _ _ From all sources From farm sources 18.7 19.7 20.4 20.6 20.6 23.6 24.8 23.7 24.4 11.5 12.2 12.3 12.1 11.3 13.5 14.3 13.0 13.5 1 From nonfarm sources 7.2 7.5 8.2 8.5 9.3 10.0 10.5 10.7 10.9 ! i i J • ' 1 i ! Net to farm operators Net income per farm including net inventory change 3 ProducCash tion ex- Exclud- Includreceipts penses ing net in- ing net in- Current 1968 Total i from ventory ventory2 prices prices * marketchange change ings Billions of dollars Dollars 12.1 34.2 11.7 3,049 38.1 26.4 3, 505 3,399 39.8 12.6 13.0 3, 907 27. 1 35. 1 13.2 41.3 28.6 36.4 12.6 3, 586 4, 075 13.2 42.3 37.4 3,708 29.7 12.6 4, 166 37.2 3, 564 13.1 42.6 12.3 3, 960 29.5 4,487 44.9 39.3 30.9 4, 931 14.0 15.0 43.2 16.2 4, 967 49.6 16. 1 5, 284 33.4 14.2 4, 654 49. 1 14.6 4, 848 42.8 34.8 50.8 14.9 15.4 5, 035 5, 035 44. 1 35.9 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 14. 2 i 49. 2 14. 8 4, 700 ! 4, 900 43 0 35 0 ! 4, 610 ; 4, 750 14 5 42 7 13. 9 48 9 35 0 4, 840 ! 4, 940 14. 4 i 49.8 43. 2 14.8 35. 4 14 8 15. 1 4, 940 ! 4, 940 44 0 35 9 ' 50 7 5, 130 ! 5, 080 44 9 36 2 15. 4 15. 7 i 51. 6 5. 170 i 5, 120 i 51.1 15.8 36.3 14.8 44.3 » Cash receipts from marketings, Government payments, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Inventory of crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year. Also, see footnote 2, p. 3. » Based on Census of Agriculture definition of a farm. The number of farms is held constant within a year. 1968 Income received from farming Realized gross 1960 1961 1962 1963___ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1964__ _ _ _ 1965___ _ _ 1966_ _ _ _ 1967_ _ „ _ _ 1968 i 3967 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Personal income received by total farm population Period J L 1966 * Income in current prices divided by the index of prices paid by farmers for family living items on a 1968 base. NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning I960. Source: Department of Agriculture. pORPORATE PROFITS According to preliminary estimates, corporate profits (before tax) increased $3 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourtfi quarter to nearly $96 billion. For the year 1968 profits were $10% billion higher than in 1967, a gain of 1 3 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF'DOLLARS 40 40 ,m #% DIVIDEND PAYMENTS W/>. 20 20 1962 1963 1964 -I/PRELIMINARY. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period 1960 . 1961 _ . 1962 „ _ _ 1963_. „ _ 1964™.. 3965_ 1966. 1967. 1968s1 1967: ILL.. IV. 1968: I II — m__ IV»__ 1968 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars: quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Corporate profits (before taxes) and inventory Corporate profits valuation adjustment after taxes TransCorpoCorpoManufacturing portation, rate rate comDiviUnprofits tax NonAll Durable muniAll dend distribbefore liabil- Total durable indus1 goods uted paytaxes ity Total goods cations, other tries indusand ments profits industries public tries utilities 24.4 12.4 12.0 49. 9 17. 9 49. 7 23. 0 26. 7 7. 5 13. 4 13. 2 23. 3 11. 4 11. 9 50. 3 19. 1 7. 9 50. 3 23. 1 27. 2 13. 8 13. 5 14. 1 26. 6 12. 5 55. 7 24. 2 20. 5 31. 2 8. 5 55. 4 15. 2 16. 0 28. 8 15. 8 13. 0 58. 9 33. 1 20.6 59. 4 26. 3 9.5 16. 5 16. 6 32.7 14.9 17,8 23.5 66.3 10.1 28.3 38.4 66.8 17.8 20.6 22. 8 39. 3 16. 6 76. 1 77. 8 25. 6 31. 3 46. 5 11. 1 26. 7 19. 8 42. 8 24. 1 18. 8 83. 9 12. 0 85. 6 34. 6 29. 0 51. 0 21.7 29.3 39. 2 21. 2 18. 0 80. 4 29. 4 81. 6 33. 5 48. 1 11. 8 22. 9 25. 2 24.4 44". 3 19.9 89.2 32. 1 92.3 51.0 41.3 12.8 24.6 26.4 38. 5 20. 6 17. 9 80. 2 33.2 12. 0 29. 7 80. 8 47. 6 23. 5 24. 1 21. 9 39. 9 18. 0 S2. 3 30. 6 85. 4 11.9 35. 1 50.3 22. 5 27. 9 22. 3 41. 3 83. 8 19. 0 39. 8 49. 1 12.5 30. 0 88. 9 23. 6 25, 5 44.9 89.2 25.2 19.7 31.8 41. 1 91.8 50.7 12.5 24.4 26. 3 45.3 25.0 91.6 20.3 13.0 92.7 51.2 33.3 41.5 25.2 26.0 92. 0 52. 9 95. 8 42, 9 25.4 27. 6 i 1 Includes 3 Includes 3 all other industries and financial institutions. depreciation and accidental damages. Corporate profits after taxes plus corporate capital consumption allowances. J/ Corporate capital consumption allow-2 an ces 24. 9 26. 2 30. 1 31.8 33.9 36. 4 39. 7 43. 4 47. 1 44. 1 44. 9 45. 7 46.7 47. 6 4.8. 5 Profits plus capital consumption allow-3 ances 51. 6 53. 5 61. 3 64. 8 72.3 82. 9 90. 7 91. 5 98.1 91. 7 95, 2 94. 8 97.4 98.8 101. 4 NOTE.—-Data beginning 1962 adjusted for effects of new depreciation guidelines ($2^ billion for 1962) and therefore not comparable with preceding data. Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960. Source: Department of Commerce. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT Gross private domestic investment increased a substantial $91/2 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth^ quarter, according to current estimates. Business fixed investment was up $4 billion/ residential construction rose $2 billion; and inventory accumulation increased to over $101/2 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 140 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 140 20 20 —s? 1962 1968 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC AD.VISERS COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Fixed investment Period Total gross private domestic investment Total 60. 9 75.3 74.8 71.7 83. 0 87. 1 94. 0 108. 1 120. 8 114. 3 127.7 114. 7 121. 8 119. 7 127.3 127.1 136.6 Total 62. 4 70. 5 71.3 69.7 77.0 81.3 88. 2 98. 5 106. 1 108. 2 119.9 109. 3 113.5 117.6 116.5 119.6 126.0 41. 6 45. 1 48. 4 47.0 51. 7 54. 3 61. 1 71. 3 81. 3 83. 6 90.0 83.3 85.0 88.6 87.0 90.1 94.3 NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960. 8 Producers' durable equipment Structures Total 1958 1959___ 1960 „ 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 __ _ _ _ _ . _ 1966 1967 _ _ _ _ 1968 1967: III IV 1968: I II III IV Residential structures Nonresidential 16. 6 16. 7 18. 1 18. 4 19. 2 19. 5 21.2 25. 5 28. 5 27. 9 29.2 27.7 27.7 29.6 28.5 28.8 29.9 Nonfarm 15. 8 15. 9 17.4 17.7 18.5 18.8 20.5 24. 9 27. 8 27. 1 28.4 27. 0 26. 9 28.8 27.7 28.0 29.1 Total 25. 0 28. 4 30.3 28. 6 32.5 34. 8 39.9 45. 8 52. 8 55. 7 60.8 55.6 57. 3 59. 0 58.5 61.3 64.5 Nonfarm 22.0 25. 4 27. 7 25.8 29. 4 31. 2 36.3 41. 6 48. 1 51. 0 55.9 50.9 52.6 54. 3 53.6 56.4 59.3 Total 20. 8 25. 5 22. 8 22. 6 25.3 27.0 27.1 27.2 24.8 24. 6 29.9 26. 0 28. 5 29. 1 29.5 29.5 31.6 Source: Department of Commerce. Nonfarm 20. 1 248 22. 2 22.0 24.8 26. 4 26.6 26. 7 24.3 24. 0 29.3 25. 4 27. 9 28. 5 28.9 28.9 31.0 Change in business inventories Total -1. 5 4.8 3.6 2.0 6. 0 5.9 5.8 9.6 14.7 6. 1 7.7 5. 3 8.3 2. 1 10.8 7.5 10.6 Nonfarm — 2. 3 4. 8 3.3 1. 7 5.3 5. 1 6. 4 8.6 14. 9 5.6 7.3 4.8 7. 1 1. 6 10.4 7.3 9.7 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT According to the latest survey of investment intentions, expenditures for new plant and equipment in 1969 should increase sharply—by 14 percent over 1968. Actual expenditures for the fourth quarter of 1968 were $11/3 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) below earlier anticipations. There was nevertheless a substantial increase of $2.7 billion over the third quarter level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 80 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 80 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 NONMANUFACTURING ...Ai«»»""' 30 30 MANUFACTURING 20 20 10 I I I I 1 \ 1 1964 1963 I \ i I 1966 1965 1967 I 1968 1 1969 -I/SEE NOTE 3 ON TABLE BELOW SOURCES; SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS I Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Transportation Manufacturing Period 1956 1957 1958 1959 I960 _ 1961 1962 _ _ 1963 _ _ _ „ 1964 1965 _ __1966 - . _ _ . 1967 1968 3 1969 1968: I- . _ II III IV__ 1969: I 33 _ _ II _ 2nd half 3 1 Total l 35. 08 36.96 30. 53 32. 54 35. 68 _. 34.37 . 37. 31 . __ 39.22 44 90 51.96 .__ 60.63 .._ 61.66 64.08 72.96 64.75 ... _ - _ 62.60 63. 20 65.90 71. 65 70. 85 74.70 Total 14.95 15. 96 11. 43 12. 07 14. 48 13. 68 14. 68 15. 69 18. 58 22.45 26.99 26.69 26.44 30.65 26.35 25.80 26.65 26. 85 29. 50 29. 95 31.45 Durable Nonduragoods ble goods 7. 62 8. 02 5.47 5.77 7. 18 6. 27 7. 03 7. 85 9.43 11.40 13.99 13.70 13. 51 15.48 13. 65 12.80 13. 65 13. 90 15. 30 15. 15 15.70 Excludes agriculture. 2 Commercial and other includes trade, service, finance, communications, and construction. s Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures as reported by business In late January and February 1969. Includes adjustments when necessary for systematic tendencies in anticipatory data. NOTE.—Beginning 1959 all quarterly data are rounded to nearest $50 million. 7.33 7. 94 5. 96 6.29 7.30 7. 40 7. 65 7. 84 9. 16 11.05 13.00 13.00 12. 93 15. 17 12.70 13.00 13. 05 12.95 14. 20 14. 80 15. 75 Mining Railroads Other 1.24 1.24 . 94 . 99 . 99 . 98 1. 08 1. 04 1. 19 1.30 1.47 1.42 1.42 1. 60 1. 55 1.40 1. 35 1. 35 1. 65 1.60 1. 55 1.23 1. 40 .75 . 92 1. 03 .67 . 85 1.10 1. 41 1.73 1.98 1.53 1. 34 1. 73 1. 65 1.40 1. 20 1. 15 1. 45 1.60 1. 95 1.71 1.77 1. 50 2.02 L 94 1. 85 2.07 1. 92 2.38 2.81 3.44 3.88 4. 31 4. 83 4.35 3.65 4. 60 4. 80 5. 00 4.05 5.25 Public Commerand utilities cial other 2 4. 90 6.20 6.09 5. 67 5. 68 5.52 5. 48 5. 65 6.22 6.94 8.41 9.88 11. 54 13. 16 11.60 11.65 10. 90 12. 00 13.40 13.35 13.00 11. 05 10. 40 9. 81 10.88 11. 57 11.68 13. 15 13. 82 15. 13 16.73 18.36 18.25 19. 04 21.00 19.20 18.70 18. 50 19. 75 20. 70 20. 35 21.40 Annual total is the sum of unadjusted expenditures; it does not necessarily coincide with the average of seasonally adjusted figures. These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE The civilian labor force (seasonally adjusted) rose in February to an all-time hish of 80.4 million. Employment rose 500,000 while unemployment declined slightly. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 90 MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 90 / r SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 85 85 80 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE 75 70 EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE 1963 * 16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT O LABOR Period 1964___ 1965___ 1966___ 1967___ 1968___ 1968: Jan Feb_ Mar_ Apr _ I\ lavJune. July. Aug_ Sept_ Oct__ Nov_ Dec_. 1969: Jan__ Feb__ Total labor force (including armed forces) COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Civilian employment Total iNonagricultural Unemployment Unemployment Total Civilian employment rate (percent of labor force Unem- civilian labor Civilian Nonforce) (includ- labor Agriployagriing force Total culment culUnad- Seasonarmed tural adtural justed ally forces) justed persons 16 years of age and over Percent 75, 830 73, 091 69, 305 4,523 64,782 3,786 5. 2 77, 178 74, 455 71, 088 4,361 66, 726 3,366 4. 5 78, 893 75, 770 72, 895 3,979 68, 915 2,875 3. 8 80, 793 77, 347 74, 372 3,844 70, 527 2,975 3. 8 82, 272 78, 737 75, 920 3,817 72, 103 2,817 3.6 Seasonally adjusted Labor force participation rate, unadjusted i 75, 830 77, 178 78, 893 80, 793 82, 272 Thousands of 69, 305 64, 782 3,786 71, 088 66, 726 3,366 72, 895 68, 915 2, 875 74, 372 70, 527 2,975 75, 920 72, 103 2,817 Unadjusted 79, 811 80, 869 80, 938 81, 141 81, 770 84, 454 84, 550 83, 792 82, 137 82, 477 82, 702 82, 618 73, 273 74, 114 74, 517 75, 143 75, 931 77, 273 77, 746 77, 432 75, 939 76, 364 76, 609 76, 700 69, 908 70, 653 70, 980 71, 292 71, 935 72, 757 73, 270 73, 325 72, 103 72, 596 73, 001 73, 421 3, 074 3,288 2,929 2, 491 2,303 3, 614 3,217 2,772 2,606 2,511 2,577 2,419 81, 844 82, 085 82, 187 81, 938 82, 278 82, 486 82, 504 82, 838 82, 488 82, 408 82, 559 82, 868 77, 881 78, 569 78, 645 78, 427 78, 742 78, 919 78, 917 78, 749 78, 847 78, 800 79, 042 79, 368 75, 086 75, 640 75, 764 75, 653 75, 982 76, 005 76, 020 75, 973 76, 000 76, 002 76, 388 76, 765 3, 962 4,074 3,978 8,916 3, 905 3, 849 3,825 8, 751 8, 651 3, 525 3, 706 3,842 71, 124 71, 566 71, 786 71, 737 72, 027 72, 156 72, 195 72, 222 72, 349 72, 477 72, 682 72, 923 2, 795 2,929 2,881 2, 774 2,810 2, 914 2, 897 2, 776 2,847 2, 798 2, 654 2, 603 4.0 4.2 3. 8 3. 2 2. 9 4. 5 4. 0 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.3 3. 1 3. 6 3. 7 3. 7 3.5 3. 6 3. 7 3. 7 3. 5 3. 6 3. 6 & 4/ J. O. <-> 59. 3 60. 0 60. 0 60. 1 60.5 62. 4 62.3 61. 7 60. 4 60. 5 60. 6 60.5 81, 711 82, 579 75, 358 76, 181 72, 192 72, 896 2, 876 2, 923 88, 851 83, 831 79, 874 80, 356 77, 229 77, 729 3, 752 3,881 73, 477 78, 848 2,645 2,627 3.7 3.7 q O. & o. 59. 7 60.7 1 Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population. NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted series revised; see Employment and Earnings and Monthly Report on the Labor Force, February 1969. Beginning 1960, data include Alaska and Hawaii. 10 Source: Department of Labor. & 0 & o & o 59.6 59. 7 60. 1 60. 6 60.7 SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND PART-TIME EMPLOYMENT For the third consecutive month, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 3.3 percent in February. Other measures of unemployment showed little or no change. PERCENT 110 PERCENT 10 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED N v"\ X' UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, ALL CIVILIAN WORKERS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, EXPERIENCED WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, MARRIED MEN i i i i i I i iii i i Ii i t ii 1964 1963 i t t i i l i t ti i 1965 I i 1967 1966 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Persons at work in nonagri cultural industries by hours worked per week 2 Under 35 hours Experi- Married Labor force enced men All time lost 1 Over 40 wage and hours (wife workers salary workers present) 5.2 4.5 3.8 3. 8 3.6 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1968: Jan Feb Mar Apr Mav_ June Julv_ Aug Sept_ Oct___ _ Nov Dec 1969: Jan Feb 3. 6 3.7 3. 7 3. 5 3.6 3. 7 3. 7 3. 5 3.6 3. 6 3.4 3. 3 3. 3 3. 3 Percent 5.0 2.8 2. 4 4.3 3. 5 1. 9 1. 8 3. 6 3.4 1.6 Seasonally adjusted 1.7 3. 3 3.5 1.7 3. 4 1. 7 3. 2 1. 6 3. 1 1. 6 3. 6 1. 7 3. 6 1. 6 3.4 1. 6 3.4 1.6 3. 4 1. 6 3.2 1.6 3.0 1.4 3. 1 1. 4 1. 4 3. 0 5.8 5. 0 4.2 4. 2 4.0 19,271 20, 788 21, 334 20, 920 20, 600 4. 1 4.2 4. 0 3.7 3. 6 4. 3 4. 3 4. 0 4.0 3. 9 3.8 3.6 3. 6 3. 6 19, 746 20, 557 20, 912 17, 651 21, 170 20, 748 19,616 20, 134 22, 081 22, 303 20, 472 21, 810 20, 463 19, 519 1 Man-hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as a percent of potentially available labor force man-hours. - DiilV.rs from total nonagricultural employment (p. 10), which includes persons wii.h jobs but not at work for such reasons as vacation, illness, bad weather, and industrial disputes. 3 Includes persons who worked part-time because of slack work, material shortages or repairs, new job started, or job terminated. 1969 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) Period 1968 35-40 hours Part-time for economic reasons Part-time for economic reasons Total Usually Usually Usually Usually partfuOfullparttime 4 time s time s time 4 Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over 29, 100 13, 101 986 1,151 30, 768 11,818 897 1,031 32, 088 12, 034 871 793 32, 616 13, 290 1,060 853 32, 658 14, 785 895 820 Unadjusted Seasonally adjusted 32, 031 14, 753 805 814 722 720 32, 383 15, 081 942 910 840 799 33, 566 13, 976 866 877 804 868 828 782 28, 705 21, 414 665 863 34, 005 14, 182 790 798 679 845 33, 981 12, 986 1, 120 1, 079 1. 009 S45 32, 965 11,686 924 1, 159 819 945 33, 115 11, 392 974 995 1, 103 836 972 974 33, 773 12, 992 769 689 852 33, 380 14, 135 907 671 780 852 30, 101 19, 844 814 859 753 872 33, 898 14, 987 835 723 801 34, 316 14, 400 707 898 800 805 5 5 32, 002 18, 433 900 730 870 768 5 5 Primarily includes persons who could find only part-time work. Average hours worked: usually full-time, 24.4; usually part-time, 17.7. NOTE.—Pee Note, p. 10. Source: Department of Labor. 11 UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In February, insured unemployment under State programs averaged 97,000 lower than a year earlier. The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remained at 2.1 percent. MILLIONS OF PERSONS MILLIONS OF PERSONS WEEKLY INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT (STATE PROGRAMS) 1967 ,-.. / 1968 1966 JAM FEB. MAR. APRIL MAY JULY JUNE AUG. SEPT. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIl Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS All programs Insured Total unem- benefits Insured Covered ploypaid unem(milemploy- ment ployment (weekly lions ment averof dolage) lars) Period 1965 1966 1967 1968 1967: Dec >_ 1968: Jan Feb Mar AprMay June _ July. . _ Aug Sept Oct Nov__ _ _ _ Dec _ __ 1969: Jan __ Feb ".__ Week ended: 1969: Feb 1 8 15 22 Mar 1" _ _ SP Thousands 51, 580 1,450 54, 739 1, 129 "56, 341 1,270 1, 187 '57, 577 1,339 "55, 716 1,719 "55, 912 1,653 "56, 381 1,480 1,216 1, 026 944 1,058 1,024 868 861 985 1,253 1,585 1,551 ! 1. 580 1, 533 1.589 1,549 1,527 2, 1, 2, 2, 360. 4 890. 9 220. 0 191. 3 171.8 264.8 259.4 247. 5 207.2 170.2 139.3 156. 9 162. 8 133. 4 138. 7 134. 9 185.4 264.6 258. 0 12 State programs Initial claims Insured unemployment as perExhaus- cent of covered employment tions Unad- Seasonadjusted ally justed Weekly average, thousands 232 21 1, 328 203 15 1, 061 17 226 1,205 201 16 1, 111 278 1,259 16 1, 624 316 18 227 18 1, 556 19 183 1,390 1, 142 183 20 18 156 964 157 883 17 15 991 240 174 955 15 802 13 141 14 794 154 189 913 13 1,172 14 261 1, 491 16 275 1,459 219 15 1, 487 1, 440 1,498 1,459 1,438 NOTE.—For definitions and coverage, see the 1967 Supplement to Economic Indicators. Data for Alaska and Hawaii included for all periods and for Puerto Rico since January 1961. DEC NOV. OCT. 250 248 220 199 207 195 Percent 3. 0 2.3 2. 5 2.2 2.6 3.3 3.2 2.8 2.3 2. 0 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.6 1. 6 1.8 2. 3 3. 0 2.9 3. 0 2. 9 3. 0 2. 9 2.9 Source: Department of Labor. & o <O. d> 2.4 ff> £. O<Z? 2. 3 2. 1 <?> &p &, & &p &, 2.3 2. 3 2.2 2. 1 2. 1 2.0 2. 1 2.1 Benefits paid Total Average weekly (milcheck lions of dollars) (dollars) 2, 1, 2, 2, 37. 19 39.75 41. 25 43.43 41.85 42.60 43. 58 43. 64 43. 12 42.42 42. 26 42. 39 43.73 43.78 44. 37 44.72 45. 34 46. 16 46. 25 166. 0 771.3 101. 0 031. 9 159.2 248.5 243. 7 231. 1 195. 1 159. 1 129. 1 145. 6 150. 0 121.8 126. 0 122. 5 170. 3 246. 1 240. 0 i NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural payroll employment (seasonally adjusted) rose in February for the thirteenth consecutive month to a new high of 70 million—380,000 above the January level. The rise was broadly based, with the largest increase occurring in contract construction (110,000). MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED! MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 72 16 (ENLARGED SCALE) 68 1^* 14 — - —i T I - WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE 64 ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 12 60 SERVICES r- _.!- 10 - 1 — — iw^ " *^ 36 — NONMANUFACTUR1NG (PRIVATE) 32 12 "••""••••.,,,,,,,«t,,,tn»<"" i»«iu«»n»»«'"»itM»Ml1" DUR/ \BLE * MANUFA CTURING 10 24 NONDURABLE M ANUFACTURING "~ MANUFACTURING 20 , 8 _\ , • !• - 16 GOVERNMENT 12 2 1967 1966 CONTRAC T CONSTRUCT I^N 4 1968 A, . . . . ! , . . . . ¥ 1969 i ., ,,| , , i ., 1966 1967 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR . . . i , I , , i i, 1968 . . . . . 1 .... 1969 .k ^ COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 1 [Thousands of wage and salary workers; seasonally adjusted) Nonmanufacturing (private) Manufacturing (private) Period Total 1962 1963 1964 1965 J966 1967 1968 1968: Jan__ Feb__ Mar. Apr__ May_ June. July. Aug.. Sept. Oct__ N ov _ Dec__ 1969: ,)an"_ .Fob"_ 55, 596 56, 702 58, 332 60, 832 64, 034 66, 030 68, 146 67, 058 67, 600 67, 656 67, 755 67, 792 68, 039 68, 170 68, 314 68, 382 68, 701 68, 955 69, 310 69, 618 69, 997 Total 16, 853 16, 995 17, 274 18, 062 19, 214 19, 434 19, 740 19, 612 19, 612 19, 607 19, 657 19,693 19, 777 19, 776 19, 748 19, 755 19, 807 19, 871 19, 974 19, 988 20, 063 NonDurable durable §OO QS goods 9, 480 9,616 9, 816 10, 406 11, 284 11, 422 11, 578 11, 541 11, 514 11, 495 11,533 11, 545 11, 571 11, 619 11, 563 11, 577 11, 603 11,661 11, 724 11, 789 11, 818 7, 373 7,380 7, 458 7, 656 7, 930 8, 012 8, 162 8,071 8,098 8, 112 8, 124 8, 148 8, 206 8, 157 8, 185 8, 178 8,204 8, 210 8, 250 8, 199 8, 245 Total 29, 853 30, 481 31, 461 32, 678 33, 949 34, 980 36, 204 35, 468 35, 967 35, 996 36, 010 35, 965 36, 030 36, 138 36, 296 36, 410 36, 569 36, 762 36, 893 37, 106 37, 354 Con- Transtract portation Mining conand strue- public tion utilities 650 2, 902 3, 906 635 2,963 3,903 634 3, 050 3, 951 632 3, 186 4, 036 627 3, 275 4, 151 616 3, 203 4, 271 625 3,259 4,348 604 3, 107 4,317 608 3,388 4,342 609 3,330 4,332 632 3, 313 4,331 631 3,245 4,281 632 3, 174 4, 336 638 3, 189 4, 346 638 3, 195 4,358 639 3, 252 4, 365 591 3,285 4,374 637 3, 279 4, 392 638 3, 387 4,400 643 3, 369 4, 394 642 3,480 4,422 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and. personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 10, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when tiiey W noie- Finance, insursale ance, Services and and retail reali traoie estate 11, 566 2, 800 8, 028 11,778 2,877 8, 325 12, 160 2, 957 8, 709 12, 716 3, 023 9,087 13, 245 3, 100 9, 551 13, 613 3, 217 10, 060 14, 111 3,357 10, 504 13, 818 3,291 10, 331 13, 920 3, 304 10, 405 13, 999 3,311 10,415 14, 009 3, 323 10, 402 14, 049 3,334 10, 425 14, 086 3, 335 10, 467 14, 117 3, 350 10, 498 14, 181 3, 376 10, 548 14, 222 3, 387 10, 545 14, 298 3,411 10, 610 14, 326 3,426 10, 702 14, 271 3,442 10, 755 14, 449 3, 460 10, 791 14, 489 3,475 10, 846 •IXT-l Government 1 Federal 2, 340 2,358 2, 348 2, 378 2, 564 2,719 2,737 2,721 2,721 2,718 2,717 2,721 2,795 2,788 2,751 2,716 2,705 2,696 2,715 2,760 2, 766 State and local 6, 550 6,868 7, 249 7,714 8, 307 8, 897 9,465 9,257 9,300 9, 335 9,371 9,413 9,437 9, 468 9, 519 9,501 9,620 9, 626 9, 728 9, 764 9, 814 are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on an enu meration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. NOTE.—Beginning 1959, data include Alaska and Hawaii. Source: Department of Labor. 13 WEEKLY HOURS OF WORK - SELECTED INDUSTRIES In February, the workweek (seasonally adjusted) for nona3ricultural payroll workers was unchanged at 37.8 hours The workweek rose in contract construction and in retail trade, but declined slightly in manufacturing to the lowest level in about a year. HOURS PER WEEK (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) HOURS PER WEEK (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 46 46 TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL PRIVATE MANUFACTURING 44 42 40 38 36 34 Mi i i i i 1 i i i i i 1966 1968 1967 i i t t i 1i i i i i 1966 1969 i t i tt t i i ti 1967 1968 i t i i i i » i i -i i 1969 1967 1968 1969 42 CONTRACT CONSTRUaiON RETAIL TRADE 40 38 36 34 32 30 I 1966 1967 1968 1969 1966 SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 1 [Average hours per week ] Total n onagricultural private 2 Period Manufacturing Contract construction Retail trade 3 Total nonagricultural private 2 1964 1965 - - 39.0 38.6 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1966 1967 1968 _ _ _ _ - - -_ 1968* Jan Feb__ Mar_ Apr tMay .J _ __ _ _ - - June July Aug Sept Oct _ _ _ _ Nov Dec— 1969: Jan Feb" ___ _ _ 3ae 3a? 38.8 38.7 38.8 38.6 38. 0 37. 8 37. 3 37.6 37.6 37. 3 37. 7 38. 1 38. 2 38. 3 38. 1 37. 8 37. 5 37.7 37. 5 37. 5 40. 3 39. 7 39.8 40. 4 40. 5 40. 7 41. 2 41. 3 40. 6 40. 7 40. 0 40. 6 40. 6 39. 8 40. 9 41. 1 40. 7 40. 7 41. 2 41. 1 40. 9 41. 1 40.4 40. 3 37. 0 36. 7 36.9 37. 0 37. 3 37. 2 37. 4 37. 6 37. 7 37.4 35. 0 36. 2 36. 2 37. 3 37. 6 38.4 38. 6 38. 8 38. 7 38. 4 35. 0 37. 1 36. 6 36. 4 *Data relate to production workers or nonsupervisory employees. Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1959. 2 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 13. 14 Retail trade 3 Seasonally adjusted Unadjusted 1959 1960 1961 1962 _ 1963 Contract construction Manufacturing 38. 2 38. 0 37. 6 37.4 37. 3 37. 0 36. 6 35.9 35. 3 34.7 34. 5 34. 5 34, 4 34. 5 34. 3 35. 1 35. 8 35. 8 34. 7 34. 3 34. 1 34. 6 34. 0 34. 0 I 37. 6 37. 9 37. 8 37. 6 87. 8 37. 9 37.9 37.9 38. 0 37. 7 37. 5 37. 5 37. 8 37. 8 s Includes eating and drinking places. Source: Department of Labor. 40.2 40. 8 40. 7 40. 1 40. 9 40. 9 40. 9 40. 7 4L1 41. 0 40. 8 40. 7 40. 6 40.5 _ _ _ 36.0 37. 9 36. 8 37. 8 37. 2 87. 6 87. S 37. 5 37. 9 37. 5 36. 0 37. 8 87. 7 88. 1 34. 8 34. 9 34. 7 34. 8 34. 6 34-9 34-9 84-9 34-7 84-5 34-5 & / && o484.8 34.4 aVERAGE HOURLY AND WEEKLY EARNINGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES Average hourly earnings of nonagricultura! payroll workers were up 1 cenf in February. Average weekly earnings rose 37 cents to a new high of $111.00; the over-the-year rise was $6.47 or 6.2 percent. DOLl.ARS DOLL ARS 5.00 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS 180 -i . . ..... 4.50 CONTRACT CONSTRUC[ION . -»*'*'! J \,~- r\^^»/ 160 i X ^^ ^+* ***** 4.00 4? 140 CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION / \ * v,s / V ^ / / VlV s VX i*"' 1 X f 1 "^ MANUFACTURING MANUFACTURING 3.00 \— , 2.50 1 ^Illl""* .."-""^ _^—— —--T r ^>- TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL PRIV ATE ^"'"••"^ _ »•» 100 TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL PRIVATE !»•»> 80 .-.-— - <*"**„ — - ^ RETAIL tRADE 1.50 /1 1 1 ! 1 1 ! ! \ , , , . . 1 , , . . , 1 i 1 1 1966 . ^.."^ ..... 9^* 2.00 , 120 60 /i i i i i i ! i i i i i 1969 1968 1967 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 ! 1 ! IN N 1966 1 1 ! X""8**' MIB RE TAIL TRADE i i i i \ i i i i i_ 1 i 1 1 1 1 I i 1967 1 1 1 I I ! ! 1 ! ! iK 1969 1968 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT O F LABOR [For production workers or nonsupervisory employees] Period 1959 _ _ 1960 1961 _ -_ 1962 1963 1964 _ 1965 _ 1966 _ - _ 1967 196S 1968: Jan Feb Mar Apr _ May June July_ Auaj Sept Oefc Nov !)oc__ J < ) ( ' » 9 : J.-ui Kob " Average hourly earnings— current prices Average weekly earnings — current prices Total nonagricultural private 1 Total nonagricultural private l Manufacturing Contract construction Retail trade 2 $78. 78 80. 67 82. 60 85. 91 88. 46 91. 33 95. 06 98. 82 101. 84 107. 73 102. 95 104. 53 104. 90 104. 44 106. 69 108. 59 109. 25 109. 54 110. 87 110. 38 109. 88 110. 46 110. 63 111. 00 $88. 26 89. 72 92. 34 96. 56 99. 63 102. 97 107. 53 112. 34 114. 90 122. 51 117. 60 119. 36 120. 18 118. 21 122. 29 123. 30 122. 10 121. 69 125. 66 125. 77 125. 97 127. 82 126. 05 125. 74 $108. 41 113. 04 118. OS 122. 47 127. 19 132. 06 138. 38 146. 26 154. 95 163. 81 151. 90 154. 57 154. 94 159. 27 162. 43 164. 74 167. 52 169. 94 172. 99 172. SO 158. 20 168. 06 166. 53 165. 26 $56. 15 57. 76 58. 66 60. 96 62. 66 64. 75 66. 61 68. 57 70. 95 74. 95 72. 11 72. 80 72. 93 73. 49 73. 40 75. 82 77. 33 77. 33 75. 99 75. 46 75. 36 76. 47 76. 16 76. 50 $2. 02 2. 09 2. 14 2. 22 2. 28 2. 36 2. 45 2. 56 2. 68 2. 85 2. 76 2. 78 2. 79 2. 80 2. 83 2. 85 2. 86 2. 86 2. 91 2. 92 2. 93 2. 93 2. 95 2. 96 Manufacturing $2. 19 2. 26 2.32 2. 39 2. 46 2. 53 2. 61 2. 72 2. 83 3. 01 2. 94 2. 94 2. 96 2. 97 2. 99 3. 00 3. 00 2. 99 3. 05 3. 06 3. 08 3. 11 3. 12 3. 12 Contract construction $2. 93 3.08 3. 20 3. 31 3. 41 3. 55 3. 70 3.89 4. 11 4.38 4. 34 4. 27 4 28 4.27 4. 32 4. 29 4. 34 4.38 4. 47 4. 50 4. 52 4. 53 4. 55 4. 54 Retail trade 2 $1. 47 1.52 1. 56 1. 63 1. 68 1. 75 1. 82 1.91 2. 01 2. 16 2.09 2. 11 2. 12 2. 13 2. 14 2. 16 2. 16 2. 16 2. 19 2. 20 2. 21 2.' 21 2. 24 2. 25 i) includes other private industry groups shown on p. 13. h n l r s eating and drinking places. • i l i i i ^ s in current prices, adjusted to exclude the effects of overtime and (iustry shifts. •niir.'.s in current prices divided by the consumer price index. Manufacturing industries Adjusted Average weekly hourly earnearnings, ings, 1957-59 = 1957-59 100 3 prices 4 103. 4 $86. 96 87. 02 106. 8 109. 9 88. 62 112.7 91. 61 115. 5 93. 37 118. 4 95. 25 121. 5 97. 84 99. 33 125. 6 98. 80 131. 5 139. 5 101. 08 99. 16 136. 1 100. 30 136. 9 100. 57 137. 5 138. 2 98. 59 138. 6 101. 65 138. 8 101. 99 100. 49 139. 1 99. 83 139. 8 102. 83 141. 2 102. 34 141. 7 142. 6 102. 08 103. 33 143. 3 101. 57 143.8 NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1959. Source: Department of Labor. 15 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION The increase in industrial production, seasonally adjusted, continued in February at a rate of 0.2 percent. The overthe-year gain was 4.6 percent. Index, 1957-59=100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 200 Index, 1957-59=100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 240 | TOTAL UTILITIES AND MINING 180 220 160 200 UTILITIES 140 180 120 160 140 MINING 100 1966 1967 1969 120 200 MANUFACTURING 1966 1968 1967 1969 180 DURABLE \ 180 MARKET GROUPS 160 FINAL PRODUCTS .160 NONDURABLE ^^f»£&&&^ •*» l -^-r^S^W*****^ ^ 140 MATERIALS 140 120 LL 1966 1967 I 1111,1.11,1 1968 1966 1969 . . , , , 1 , . i • i 1967 1959 1960 _ _ __ _ 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 " _ _ _ _ _ ___ 1968: Jan Feb Mar Apr Mav _ ~ June July_ Aug Sept- - _ _ Oct__ __ __ Nov_ Dec 1969: Jan. Feb *_ COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS f 1957-59 = 100, seasonally adjusted] Industry Total industrial production Total 105. 6 108. 7 109. 7 118. 3 124. 3 132.3 143.4 156. 3 158.1 165.3 161. 2 162. 0 163.0 162. 5 164.2 165.8 166.0 164.6 165. 1 166.0 167. 5 168. 7 169. 1 169.5 106. 0 108.9 109.6 118.7 124.9 133. 1 145.0 158. 6 159.7 166.8 162. 7 163.6 164.6 163.7 165.8 167.3 167.4 165.7 166.4 167.8 169. 1 170. 1 170. 4 170. 9 NonDurable durable 105.6 108.5 107.0 117.9 124. 5 133.5 148.4 164.8 163.7 169.9 167.2 167. 6 168.2 167. 2 169. 8 171.0 170.8 167.8 168.7 169.3 171. 3 172. 4 172. 7 173.7 106. 5 109. 5 112. 9 119. 8 125. 3 132.6 140.8 150. 8 154.6 162.8 157. 1 158. 6 160.0 159. 5 160.8 162.7 163.0 163.0 163.6 165.9 166. 3 167. 3 167.4 167. 4 Market Final produets Manufacturing Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 16 1969 1968 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period !! 1 1I I I 1I 1 1 I , 1 ! 1 I 1 ! 1 1 I Mining Utilities 99. 7 101. 6 102. 6 105. 0 107. 9 111.5 114.8 120. 5 123.8 126.3 121. 6 123. 9 126.2 127. 1 126.9 129.2 130.0 129.4 127.0 120.7 126. 4 127.9 127. 5 126. 1 108. 0 115. 6 122. 3 131. 4 140. 0 151.3 160.9 173. 9 184.9 202.1 196.7 199.0 198.0 196.5 196. 1 197.9 199.3 202. 1 204.8 208.9 206. 9 210. 1 211. 0 214. 5 Total 105.7 109.9 111.2 119. 7 124. 9 131.8 142.5 155. 5 158.3 165.0 160.8 162. 0 163.5 161.7 163. 0 165.2 164.7 164.8 165.7 167.0 167. 9 168. 3 168. 1 169. 4 Consumer goods 106. 6 111. 0 112. 6 119. 7 125. 2 131.7 140.3 147. 5 148.5 156.6 151. 3 152. 9 155.0 153. 5 154. 6 156.8 156. 4 156.8 157.3 159.6 159. 2 160. 1 160. 6 161. 0 Equipment 104. 1 107.6 108.3 119.6 124.2 132.0 147.0 172. 6 179.4 182.9 181. 4 181. 6 181.8 179. 4 181. 1 183.2 182.6 181.9 183.6 183.0 186. 5 186. 0 184. 3 187. 1 Materials 105.4 107.6 108.4 117. 0 123. 7 132.8 144.2 157. 0 157.8 165.7 161. 7 161. 8 162.8 163. 1 165. 2 166.7 167.4 164.2 165.1 165.7 167.6 168. 7 169.4 169. 1 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED MANUFACTURES Production of most manufactures (seasonally adjusted) increased in February. The largest gains were more than percent in aircraft and 1 percent in nonelectrical machinery. dex, 1957-59=100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) Index, 1957-59 = 100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 240 220 CHEMICALS, PETROLEUM, ^ •** AND RUBBER \ ^»»*/^ onn <^ ^T^S •JO A PAPER AND PRINTING 160 . \, ... ^—s'"" 140 "f°M 1 1 1 ! I 1 1 I ! 1 ! 1 ! 1 1 ! 1 1 I 1967 1966 I 1 ! 1 i ! I ! I ! I ! 1 1 ! ) 1 1 1 1 ! I | 1968 1969 180 160 140 LL 1966 1966 1969 SOURCE.- BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF IHE FEDERAl RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1957-59=100, seasonally adjusted] Durable manufactures Period 1960 _ 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 _ _ _ 1967 v 196S 196S: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1969: Jan _ _ __ Feb^ Nondurable manufactures FabriTranspor- Lumber Textiles, Primary cated Machin- tation apparel, and metals ery metal equipand prodment products leather ucts -_ _ _ _ .! __J i ! ' i i ! ; ' 101.3 98. 9 104. 6 113.3 129. 1 137. 6 142.7 132.5 137. 1 136. 3 139. 3 140. 2 143. 3 148.5 148. 6 145. 8 122. 8 120. 6 123. 1 129. 3 136. 0 138.0 139 107. 6 106. 5 117. 1 123. 4 132.7 147.8 163.0 161.9 168.2 163. 9 165. 7 166.6 161.4 165.0 166. 1 166.2 166.3 167.6 172.2 173. 5 175. 1 176. 6 178 110. 8 110. 4 123. 5 129. 2 141.4 160.5 183. 8 183.4 184.5 183. 4 183. 2 183. 3 179. 4 179. 9 181.7 182.7 183.8 186. 4 186. 1 187.4 188. 5 190. 5 192 108.2 103.6 118.3 127. 0 130.7 149.2 166. 9 165.7 179. 6 175. 6 175. 1 177.6 175.3 180.4 182.6 183.2 181.7 180. 5 180. 4 180. 2 177. 4 173. 0 175 102. 1 101. 3 106. 1 108. S 112.6 117.4 119. 4 116.9 121. 7 118. 1 119. 3 125.0 123. 9 122. 7 123. 4 120. 6 114.7 119.4 119.4 126. 1 126. 1 124. 0 107. 5 108. 4 115. 1 118. 5 125.2 135. 8 141. 6 139.4 145. 2 141. 0 141. 9 143. 9 142. 9 144. 1 145. 2 144. 2 144. 1 144. 8 146. S 147. 5 145. 7 144. 4 144 Paper Chemicals, Foods, and petrobeverprint- leum, and ages, and ing rubber tobacco 109. 0 112. 4 116. 7 120. 1 127.5 135.3 146. 4 149.6 155.4 148. 6 150. 6 152. 0 151. 6 154. 5 155.2 155. 6 156.5 156.8 157. 7 159. 8 159. 8 159. 9 160 113. 9 118. 9 131. 2 141. 8 152.5 164.6 181. 9 190.0 207.2 197. 7 200. 2 201.6 200. 9 203. 1 206.6 208.2 207.6 208.8 212. 8 213. 6 215. 9 216. 0 217 106. 6 110. 2 113. 3 116. 8 120.8 123.4 128. 1 131.7 134. 1 132. 0 133. 1 133. 7 133.6 132. 9 134. 5 134. 2 134.4 134.5 136. 1 134. 9 137. 0 138. 2 137 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 OF In February, most weekly indicators of production Increased on a seasonally unadjusted basis. a^ MILLIONS OF TONS SOURCES: AMERICAN IRON AND MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS (DAILY AVERAGE) STEEL INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, AND Electric Bituminous Freight Paperboard Steel produced Cars and trucks power coal mined produced assembled (thousands) loaded Thousands distributed (thousands (thousands Index (thousands of net of short (1957-59 = (millions of Cars Total of tons) Trucks of cars) tons 100) kilowatt-hours) tons) ! Period Weeklv average: 1962 1963 1964 1985 1966 1967 1968 1968: Jan. _ Feb _ Mar. Apr May June July Aug. Sept Oct Nov Dec 1969: Jan ; Feb ' _ Week ended: 1969: Feb 15 _ COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS 1,886 2, 096 2,431 2, 521 2, 572 2,440 2, 508 2, 712 2, 849 2, 872 2, 902 2, 867 2, 775 2,591 2, 022 1, 889 2, 033 2, 235 2, 358 2, 502 2, 722 101. 2 112. 5 130. 5 135.3 138. 1 131. 0 134.6 145. 6 152.9 154. 1 155. 8 153. 9 149.0 139. 1 108. 5 101.4 109. 1 120. 0 126.6 134.3 146. 1 16, 325 17, 490 18, 728 20, 169 21, 971 23, 169 25, 244 25, 365 25, 338 24, 081 23, 344 23, 560 25, 772 26, 632 27, 562 24, 785 24, 579 25, 319 26, 806 27, 484 27, 241 2, 697 2, 755 2,750 Mar 1 _ 2, 750 8* 2 15 * 2, 800 1 Daily average. Includes data for Alaska. J Not charted. 144. 8 147. 9 147. 6 147. 6 150. 3 27, 27, 27, 26, 92 18 _ 375 269 005 879 1,414 1, 535 1,630 1, 735 1, 798 1,868 1, 826 1,738 1,753 1, 827 1,887 1,871 1,875 2, 005 1, 835 1, 971 1, 390 1, 826 1, 799 1, 766 1, 666 552 555 558 562 570 540 543 489 515 535 548 571 578 536 555 563 574 556 499 490 512 343 358 384 410 446 439 480 421 484 480 480 488 489 437 497 469 512 502 479 453 515 157. 5 175. 0 178. 8 213.7 199. 3 172. 9 207.6 207. 3 210.8 229. 5 215. 4 244. 0 246.8 152. 6 71. 2 199. 4 248. 2 243.8 204.7 213. 4 218. 3 133. 4 146. 9 148. 8 179. 4 165. * 142. 4 170. 1 172. 9 174.3 189. 2 177. 7 200. 4 202.2 122. 6 46.7 160.7 205. 3 203. 5 169.7 176. 1 177.7 24. 1 28 1 30." 6 34.3 33. 9 30. 5 37.5 34. 4 36. 5 40. 2 37. 0 43. 6 44.6 29. 9 24. 6 38.7 43. 0 40.3 35.1 37. 3 40. 5 39. 5 210. 5 171. 0 215. 1 175. 1 40. 0 42. 5 223. 3 180. 8 221. 2 181. 7 39. 5 2 219. 8 179. 8 40.0 Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, Association of American Railroads, American Paper Institute, and Ward's Automotive Reports. 1, 1, 1, 2 1, 768 703 423 303 516 510 511 501 508 516 524 524 NEW CONSTRUCTION In January, the value of new construction (seasonally adjusted) ross sharply after a temporary decline in December. A smai! decline in hcnisbuildinq was mere than offset by a spurt in commercial, industrial, and government construction. BSLUONS Oi- DOLLARS 100 •SiilONS OF DOLLARS 100 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total new construction expenditures Period 1963 1004 1965 _ I960 . _ _ _ 19G7_ 196S - _ 63. 4 00. 2 72. 3 75. i. 70. 2 84, 0 Private Residential nonfarm Total 44. 1 •\r>. s r>o. 3 51. 1 50. 0 57. 1 Commercial and housing industrial units Billions of dollars 20. 2 20. 4 7. 9 20. 4 26. 3 <). 0 20. 3 11. 9 20. 4 24. 0 18. 0 13. 6 23. 7 17. 9 13. 1 28. 9 22. 4 13. 9 Total- Other 10. 0 10. 6 12. 1 13. 6 13. 7 14.2 Construction contracts 2 Commerr eel era! , Total value cial and State, industrial j (index, and 1 1957-59 = floor space local (millions of 100) square feet) 19. 4 20. 4 22. 1 24. 0 25. 6 27. 5 ! Seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1967: Dec 1968: Jan _ Feh _ A -or May June Juiv A '. i y; Sei)t Oct. Nov Dec 1969: Jan * 81. 2 82.9 83.9 S3. 6 85. 3 85. 7 82. 0 81. 7 S3. 7 86. 0 86. 1 89. 6 84. 0 89.0 54. 0 55. 3 55. 4 56. 1 57.4 57. 3 55. 0 55.0 56. 7 57. 4 59. 5 59. 4 59. 4 61. 3 27. 6 27.0 28.8 27. 7 29. 3 29. 6 28. 2 27. 8 2S.3 29. 4 30.0 30. 6 31. 4 30. 8 21. 8 21. 2 21. 3 21. 7 22. 3 22. 3 21.4 21. 2 21.9 22. 8 23.6 24, 1 24. 9 24. 8 1 Includes noniiousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. 2Compiled by F. W. Dodge Company and relates to 48 States. 12.5 14. 1 14. 1 13. 8 14. 0 13. 4 13. 0 13. 0 14.2 14. 0 15.0 14. 5 14. 0 15. 9 1 32. 0 137. 0 142. 8 145. 3 153. 3 173. 4 13. 8 14. 3 14. 6 14. 6 14. 1 14. 2 13. 8 14. 2 14. 1 14. 1 14.4 14. 3 14. 0 14. 6 27. 2 27. 6 28. 5 27. 5 27.9 28.4 27.1 ! 1 26. 7 27.1 1 1 28. 5 26.7 30. 1 O I I-T 4-±. I 27. 6 166 166 152 169 164 172 160 187 192 183 200 183 179 191 534 599 680 769 694 779 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 769 774 737 799 565 804 796 860 794 739 956 836 858 1, 133 NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1959. Sources: Department of Commerce and F. W. Dodge Company. 19 NEW HOUSING STARTS AND APPLICATIONS FOR FINANCING Although private nonfarm housing starts declined 7 percent in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of almost 1.7 million units, they were 1 3 percent above the level for 1 968 as a whole. The decline followed the unusually sharp increase in January to the highest level in nearly 5 years. Permits for future starts rose 7 percent in February. MILLIONS OF UNITS MILLIONS OF UNITS 1963 SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, FEDERAL HOUSING ADMINISTRATION Total private and Period public (including farm) 1963 _ 1, 642. 0 1964 1, 561. 6 1, 509. 6 1965 1966 1, 196. 2 1. 321. 9 1967 1968 * h, 547. 6 1, 610. 3 1, 529. 3 1, 472. 9 1, 165. 0 1, 291. 6 1, 507. 5 1, 582.9 1, 502.3 1, 450. 6 1, 141.5 1, 268. 4 1, 483. 5 82.7 87. 2 128. 6 165. 2 145. 1 142. 9 142. 5 141. 0 139. 8 143.3 129. 5 99. 8 104. 3 95. 4 80.5 84. 6 1 26. 6 162. 0 140. 9 137. 9 139. 8 136. 6 134. 3 140. 8 127. 1 96. 4 100. 0 90. 7 79.8 82. 8 123. 9 159. 1 139. 0 136. 0 137. 3 134. 5 132. 4 138. 1 125. 1 95. 5 98. 6 89. 8 1968: Jan— Feb__ Mar _ Apr_May. June July _ Aug__ Sept_ Oct__ Nov.-! Dec__! 1969: Jan ^_j Feb »J 1 Total private Private (includ- I1O11fann ing farm) (FHA), AND VETERANS ADMINISTRATION (VAI [Thousands of units] Housing starts Private (including farm) Private nonfarm Total One unit 1, 610.3 1,020.7 1, 529.3 971. 5 1, 472. 9 963. 8 1, 165.0 778. 5 1, 291. 6 843. 9 1, 507. 5 899. 4 1,456 1, 537 1, 511 1,591 1,364 1, 365 1, 531 1, 518 1, 592 1, 570 1,733 1, 507 1, 842 1, 700 912 1, 075 920 922 838 790 904 867 944 965 905 922 1, 053 982 Authorized by issuance of local building permit; in 13,000 permit-issuing places beginning 1967; 12,000 for 1963-66; and 10,000 prior to 1963. - Units represented by mortgage applications for new home construction. 20 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Proposed home construction New private Applicahousing Requests Government units tions for for VA Two or FHA appraismore Total home programs authorized 1 commit- *als 2 units ments FHA VA 589.6 1. 582.9 1 KHx 2 71. 0 1, 334 7 190. 2 139. 3 182. 1 59. 2 1, 285. 8 557.8 1, 502.3 154. 0 113. 6 49.4 1, 239. 8 509. 1 1, 450. 6 159. 9 102. 1 188. 9 386.5 1, 141.5 129. 1 36. 8 97J. 9 153. 0 99 2 52. 5 1 141 0 447. 7 1, 268. 4 141 9 124 3 167 2 608. 1 1, 483. 5 147. 7 56. 0 1, 330. 3 131. 7 168. 8 Seasonal!}7 adjusted annual rates 544 52 1, 430 157 1, 148 163 122 462 164 152 63 1, 394 141 1, 499 591 1, 479 63 1, 416 149 127 160 669 1, 562 59 1, 340 144 126 147 520 ! 1, 345 57 133 1,280 161 110 575 137 54 1, 348 157 120 1, 281 627 134 4.9 1! 1, 289 I, 507 146 135 144 51 1 1, 290 651 1, 496 » 167 127 648 1, 570 145 54 i l 1, 393 "168 125 605 147 I, 541 153 55 I 1, 378 *19S 1, 705 158 53 828 172 1,425 "211 1, 492 | 158 1, 463 187 585 65 136 1, 809 142 1, 403 191 789 148 59 142 5G 1. 678 1, 506 180 139 718 NOTE.—Data include Alaska and Hawaii. Sources: Department of Commerce. Federal Housing Administration (FHA), and Veterans Administration (VA). BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES - TOTAL AND TRADE According to preliminary figures, retail sales (seasonally adjusted) remained practically unchanged in February. In January, total business inventories increased less than $0.1 billion and total sales by 11/3 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 22 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 160 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES RETAIL TRADE (ENLARGED SCALE) 20 INVENTORIES \ 140 120 . SALES 100 80 24 -WHOLESALE TRADE (ENLARGED 22 20 SALES 18 16 14 1966 1968 1969 1966 1969 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF CO/AMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total business 1 Retail 5 Wholesale 4 Sales Period Sales 2 Inventories 3 Sales 2 Inventories 3 Total 2 Inventories 3 NonDurable durable goods goods stores stores Total Durable goods stores 26, 297 28, 001 29, 450 31, 201 34, 687 38, 368 39, 318 42, 657 39, 318 39, 575 39, 788 39, 776 40, 242 40, 606 40, 842 41, 065 41, 010 41, 424 42, 220 42, 488 42, 657 42, 740 11,009 11, 703 12, 436 13, 189 15, 255 17, 309 17, 403 19, 461 17, 403 17, 566 17, 709 17, 723 18, 113 18, 248 18, 440 18, 475 18, 501 18, 622 19, 165 19, 361 19, 461 19, 622 Nondurable goods stores Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1961 1962_ 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1967: 1968: __ _ _ _ __ __ _ __ DecJan Feb_ _ Mar_ Apr Mav_ June July Aug Sept_ _ Oct Nov_ Decp 1969: Jan p Feb 61, 133 65, 417 68, 969 73, 685 80, 276 87, 184 _ _ 88, 962 96, 948 91, 970 93, 184 93, 758 94, 463 94, 552 96, 069 97, 423 98, 368 97, 083 99, 135 99, 675 100, 142 98, 671 100, 016 1 95, 728 101, 149 105, 525 111, 548 121, 140 137, 184 143, 772 153, 860 143, 772 144, 106 144, 819 145, 153 146, 487 147, 808 148, 522 149, 063 149, 923 150, 725 152, 122 152, 936 153, 860 153, 881 11, 988 12, 674 13, 382 14, 527 15, 595 16, 979 17, 099 18, 329 17, 641 17, 694 17, 953 18, 021 18, 006 17, 897 18, 374 18, 269 18, 498 18, 792 18, 418 18, 788 18, 830 18, 234 The term "business" also includes manufacturing (see page 22). ^Monthly average for year and total for month. ••Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. 14, 488 14, 936 16, 048 16, 977 18, 274 20, 691 21, 635 22, 624 21, 635 21, 641 21, 623 21, 618 21, 863 21, 924 22, 098 22, 169 22, 200 22, 192 22, 336 22, 501 22, 624 22, 497 18, 249 19, 630 20, 556 21, 823 23, 677 25, 330 26, 151 28, 309 26, 368 27, 043 27, 449 27, 996 27, 791 28, 158 28, 320 28, 647 28, 760 28, 902 28, 697 28, 806 28, 347 29, 031 29, 021 5, 609 6, 241 6, 661 7, 049 7, 849 8, 192 8,348 9, 187 8,422 8, 580 8, 828 9, 018 8,975 9, 132 9, 197 9, 313 9, 377 9, 687 9,342 9,314 9,238 9,483 9, 355 12, 641 13, 389 13, 895 14, 773 15, 828 17, 138 17, 803 19, 122 17, 946 18, 463 18, 621 18, 978 18, 816 19, 026 19, 123 19, 361 19, 383 19, 215 19, 355 19, 492 19, 109 19, 548 19, 666 15, 288 16, 298 17, 014 18, 012 19, 432 21, 059 21, 915 23, 196 21, 915 22, 009 22, 079 22, 053 22, 129 22, 358 22, 402 22, 590 22, 509 22, 802 23, 055 23, 127 23, 196 23, 118 * Beginning 1961, data include Alaska and Hawaii. s Beginning I960, data include Alaska and Hawaii. Source: Department of Commerce. 21 MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND NEW ORDERS Manufacturers' shipments (seasonally adjusted) increased 2% percent in January after a 2 percent decline in December. An increase in shipments of durable goods of 51/3 percent accounted for the gain, inventories showed little change. New orders declined slightly. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 60 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) MANUFACTURERS' INVENTORIES MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS TOTAL 50 90 TOTAL 40 80 30 70 20 60 NONDURABLE GOODS DURABLE GOODS \ I | [ | | | | | j I I I I I I I I I I ! I I I I I I I I I I I ll 50 40 MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS 40 NONDURABLE GOODS 30 20 1967 1967 1969 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Manufacturers' shipments1 Manufacturers' inventories2 Total 30, 896 1961 1962 33, 113 1963 _ _ _ . _35, 032 37, 335 1964 _ _ 41, 003 1965 _ 44, 876 1966 45, 712 1967 1968 50, 310 46, 955 1967: Nov Dec_ 47, 961 48, 447 1968: Jan__ 48, 356 Feb. Mar_ 48, 446 May_ June. Julv Aug__ Sept. Oet Nov i ><>(• 1 <)(>'.»: -Inn Manufacturers' new orders l Durable goods Period Apr 1969 1968 48, 755 50, 014 50, 729 51, 425 49, 825 51, 441 52, 560 52, 548 51, 494 f>2. 751 NonDurable durable goods goods 15, 544 15, 352 17, 103 16, 010 18, 247 16, 786 19, 634 17, 701 22, 216 18, 788 24, 635 20, 240 24, 973 20, 739 27, 579 22, 731 25, 538 21, 417 26, 610 21, 351 26, 925 21, 522 26, 711 21, 645 26, 844 21, 602 26, 888 21, 867 27, 509 22, 505 27, 633 23, 096 28, 211 23, 214 26, 837 22, 988 27, 985 23, 456 28, 960 23, 600 28, 786 23, 762 27, 742 23, 752 29, 210 23, 541 Total Millions 54, 943 58, 212 60, 027 63, 370 68, 179 78, 125 82, 819 88, 579 82, 389 82, 819 82, 890 83, 408 83, 759 84, 382 85, 278 85, 582 85, 829 86, 713 87, 109 87, 566 87, 947 88, 579 88, 644 NonDurable durable goods goods Total Total NonMachinerj7 durable and goods equipment of dollars, seasonall}7" adjusted 32, 518 34, 609 35, 807 38, 433 42, 204 49, 797 53, 540 57, 422 53, 283 53, 540 53, 525 54, 009 54, 295 54, 724 55, 234 55, 442 55, 461 56, 069 56, 458 56, 657 56, 953 57, 422 57, 626 22, 425 23, 603 24, 220 24, 937 25, 975 28, 328 29, 279 31, 157 29, 106 29, 279 29, 365 29, 399 29, 464 29, 658 30, 044 30, 140 30, 368 30, 644 30, 651 30, 909 30, 994 31, 157 31, 018 31, 085 33, 005 35, 322 37, 952 41, 803 45, 938 45, 928 50, 597 47, 320 49, 463 48, 353 48, 453 49, 566 49, 237 49, 650 49, 850 50, 181 50, 201 51, 877 53, 931 53, 100 53, 101 52, 939 15, 698 17, 026 18, 522 20, 258 22, 986 25, 710 25, 189 27, 868 25, 852 28, 056 26, 837 26, 814 28, 005 27, 373 27, 172 26, 701 26, 925 27, 329 28, 381 30, 280 29, 325 29, 380 29, 455 2,854 3, 090 3,412 3, 935 4, 435 5, 268 5, 250 5,804 5,372 5, 495 5,466 5, 380 5,382 5,492 5,447 5, 968 5, 714 6, 027 5, 916 6, 550 6, 089 6, 237 6, 085 15, 387 1 15, 979 16, 800 17, 694 18, 817 20, 228 20, 739 22, 728 21, 468 21, 407 21, 516 21, 639 21, 561 21, 864 22, 478 23, 149 23, 256 22; 872 23, 496 23, 651 23, 775 23, 721 23, 484 1 Monthly avrrar.r for year and total for month. *JU)ok value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. For a n n u a l pi-rinds, ml io of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for m o n t h l y dal:i, r a t i o of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. 2 22 Manufacturers' inventory shipments ratio 3 NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1958. Source: Department of Commerce. 1. 74 1. 72 1. 69 1. 64 1. 60 1. 62 1. 77 1. 70 1. 75 1. 73 1.71 1. 72 1. 73 L 73 1. 71 1. 69 1. 67 1. 74 1. 69 1. 67 1. 67 1. 72 1. 68 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS Both exports and imports were depressed in January by the east coast dock strike. The merchandise trade balance registered a surplus of $116 million (seasonally adjusted). BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4.0 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4.0 3.5 1.0 1.0 r 1 I I 1 I N .5 o -N 1963 J/SEE NOTE 1 BELOW. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] Merchandise exports Merchandise imports Total (includ-l Domestic exports General imports 2 ing reexports) Total3 Food, Crude Food, Crude M anubever- matebevermateSeason- Unad- Total * 8 ages, facSeason- Unadages, rials rials ally ad- justed tured ally ad- justed and to- and and to- and justed goods justed fuel bacco bacco fuels Monthly average : 1960 1961 1962. ___ 1963 1964 1965 3966 1967 1968 1967: Dec__ 2,603 1968: Jan__ 2, 796 Feb._ 2, 797 Mar__ 2,462 Apr__ 2, 905 May_ 2, 736 Jime_ 2, 865 July__ 2, 841 Aug_ 2, 933 Sept. 3,266 Oct.. 2,614 Nov_ 3,000 Dec— 2, 886 3969: J a n _ _ 2,082 1, 636 1, 682 1,748 1,869 2, 141 2,225 2,448 2,578 2, 841 2,812 2,685 2,690 2,647 2, 961 2, 962 2, 784 2,676 2,804 2,960 2,735 3, 136 3,048 2,057 1, 620 264 1, 662 289 312 1,725 1,845 349 2, 111 387 2,196 377 2, 412 432 2,546 392 2,805 383 Unadjusted 2,782 425 2,656 397 2,659 406 2,608 391 2, 925 381 2,925 366 2,750 343 2, 640 346 2,765 399 2,926 378 2, 689 324 3, 102 419 442 3,007 2, 017 143 329 322 280 315 361 356 367 393 402 1,047 1, 062 1, 138 1, 188 1, 366 1, 449 1, 592 1,729 1,970 373 377 387 412 426 417 362 382 387 398 380 461 436 227 1,934 1,827 1, 833 1,766 2,072 2,076 1,973 1, 866 1,938 2,095 1,926 2,201 2, 060 1,627 »Total excludes Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program. 2 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. 1, 251 1, 226 1, 366 1,428 1,557 1, 780 2, 129 2,234 2,771 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 525 619 610 624 640 777 852 679 838 977 670 830 957 967 2,431 2,739 2,456 2, 570 2, 754 2, 841 2,661 2, 827 2,750 2, 882 2,938 2,806 3, 028 2, 026 283 365 359 288 306 387 322 391 335 415 334 449 382 473 392 445 447 499 Unadjusted 478 439 441 506 421 444 395 487 455 466 451 488 401 500 458 513 484 484 489 538 435 531 459 470 474 538 194 457 Grossmerchandise trade Manusurplus, facseasontured ally adgoods justed 571 544 636 672 758 936 1,201 1,309 1,712 385 456 382 441 584 444 320 344 70 1,431 1,689 1,495 1,596 1,719 1,785 1,655 1,712 1,673 1,737 15 851 1,759 1, 875 1,286 78 178 187 — 162 266 -41 12 162 95 288 -57 170 -70 116 3 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. Source: Department of Commerce. 23 U.S. EXPORTS AND IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES The surplus on goods and services declined sharply in the fourth quarter to a $772 million level (seasonally adjusted annual rate), mainly as a result of a merchandise trade deficit of $876 million. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 20 20 10 1962 1968 SOURCE* DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] Imports of goods and services Exports of goods and services Income on investments Period Total 1964 1965 1966 1967 _ 1968*. 37, 098 39, 196 43, 142 45, 756 50, 199 Merchan-l dise Military sales 25, 297 747 26, 244 830 29, 176 829 30, 468 1, 240 33, 376 1,423 Private Government 4,930 5,384 5,659 6, 235 6, 911 456 509 593 624 774 Other services Total Merchan-1 dise 5,668 6, 229 6,885 7, 189 7,715 28, 688 32, 295 38, 063 40, 989 48, 234 18, 648 21,516 25, 541 26, 991 33, 273 Balance on Miligoods Other tary and expend- services servitures ices 2,876 7, 164 2,945 7,834 3,735 8,787 4, 340 9,658 4, 561 10, 400 8,409 6, 901 5,080 4,768 1,965 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1967: III IV 1968: I II III IV * 1 46, 052 45, 984 30, 504 980 29, 912 1, 292 47, 400 50, 428 53, 128 49, 852 31, 33, 35, 32, 656 516 340 992 1, 224 1,440 1,612 1,420 6,684 6,916 624 612 7,260 7, 252 40, 616 42, 592 26, 164 28, 636 4,392 10, 060 5, 436 4,416 9,540 3,392 6, 6, 7, 7, 792 884 820 604 7, 556 7,680 7,960 7, 664 46, 47, 49, 49, 31, 33, 34, 33, 4,440 4,492 4,580 4, 732 Adjusted from customs data for differences in timing and coverage. NOTE.—All of the data on this page and balance on liquidity basis and official reserve transactions basis (p. 25), as well as data shown on an unadjusted basis 24 172 908 396 172 208 940 712 080 516 340 368 868 10, 10, 10, 10, 252 1, 192 108 2,488 764 3,416 480 772 (p. 25) have been revised for the first 3 quarters of 1968. Other data for these quarters shown on these pages will be revised in April. Source: Department of Commerce. U.S. BALANCE OF INTERNATIONAL PAYMENTS A balance of payments surplus of $3.8 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) was recorded in the fourth quarter, and a $187 million surplus for the year 1968, as measured on the liquidity basis. The official reserve transactions basis showed a surplus of $876 million for the fourth quarter and $1.6 billion for the year. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 10 10 BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES BALANCE, OFFICIAL RESERVE TRANSACTIONS BASIS -5 J -10 L 1962 I I 1965 I I I 1966 J I L -10 1968 SOURCE, DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADV4SERS [Millions of dollars! Period U.S. private capital, net U.S. Government grants Other Direct Shortlongand investterm term capital, ment net l 1964___ 1965. _ _ 1966___ 1967. _. 1968 "_„ -3, 564 -3, 370 -3, 444 -4, 211 1967: III— IV... 1968: I !!____ III___ IV» -2,328 — 2, 103 -2, 147 753 -3,468 -1,079 -418 -3, 623 -256 -3, 020 -1,270 -1,214 Errors Foreign and uncapital, recorded Liquidnet l transity actions basis 2 -532 -800 -228 - 1, 424 -780 -1,884 689 270 2, 531 3, 185 Changes in gold, convertible currenTo foreign official cies, and To other IMF gold holders 5 foreign tranche holders 6 position NonLiquid (increase liquid "h\) Lr 1,075 318 1, 554 171 -18 85 131 1,222 -1,595 761 2,384 568 2, 062 1,457 1, 291 52 -3, 136 3, 829 -880 Quarterly totals, unadjusted Changes in selected liabilities (decrease [ — ])4 828 -3, 208 988 -136 -6,968 -4,328 281 1,317 119 260 1,306 765 -181 -972 -2, 748 -2,224 5,468 6, 112 9, 916 — 1, 716 -656 320 1,700 1,776 6,960 3, 832 876 — 1, 363 -2, 198 -60 485 369 772 524 718 2, 263 1, 042 — 194 904 -137 -571 - 1, 076 3, 064 1,412 i Includes certain special Government transactions. * Equals changes in liquid liabilities to foreign official holders, other foreign holders, and changes in official reserve assets consisting of gold, convertible currencies, and the U.S. gold tranche position in the IMF. 3 Equals changes in liquid and nonliquid liabilities to foreign official holders and changes in official reserve assets consisting of gold, convertible currencies, and 4 the U.S. gold tranche position in the IMF. Includes short-term official and banking liabilities and foreign holdings of U.S. Government bonds and notes. 6 Central banks, governments, and U.S. liabilities to the IMF arising from reversible gold sales to, and gold deposits with, the U.S. Official reserve transactions basis 3 -860 -2,800 — 1, 564 -315 -1,335 -1,289 266 -210 -1,357 -532 -3, 571 -3, 405 187 1,616 Seasonally adjusted annual rates -3, 952 -3, 608 -2,024 - 1, 520 -4, 032 -3, 260 -1,636 -1,656 -4, 656 -1,496 -4, 288 -4, 140 -3, 812 -4,408 Balance 7 6 Private holders; includes banks and international and regional organizations; excludes IMF. 7 On Dec. 31, U.S. reserve assets consisted of gold stock, $10,892 million (up $137 million from Sept. 30); IMF position including gold portion of increased U.S. subscription, $1,290 million; convertible currencies, $3,528 million. NOTE.—See Note, p. 24. Data exclude military grant-aid and U.S. subscriptions to IMF. Source: Department of Commerce. 25 PRICES CONSUMER PRICES V^ V/J-* I*? VJ ATJUJ-IAV. A J-VAN^l I*. » Consumer prices rose 0.3 percent in January. Prices of food and consumer services each increased by 0.7 percent while nonfood commodities declined 0.2 percent. Index, 1957-59=100 Index, 1957-59=100 140 140 100 100 1963 1969 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF IABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1957-59 = 100] All items Period 1959 1960 1961 1962 _ _ 1963 1964 1965 ..__.. _ _ _ _ _ 1966 - ._1967 1968 -_ -1967: Dec 1968: Jan _ _ _ __ Feb _Mar - - __ Apr__ _ __ __ May June _ _ _ July AUK Sept Oct Nov Dec 1969: Jan __ Source: Department of Labor. 26 _ _ _ - __ -__ _ 101. 5 103. 1 104. 2 105. 4 106. 7 108. 1 109.9 113. 1 116. 3 121.2 118. 2 118.6 119. 0 119. 5 119.9 120. 3 120.9 121. 5 121. 9 122.2 122. 9 123.4 123. 7 124. 1 All commodities 100. 9 101.7 102. 3 103.2 104. 1 105. 2 106.4 109. 2 111. 2 115.3 112. 9 113.2 113.5 113. 9 114. 3 114. 7 115. 1 115. 5 115. 9 116. 1 116. 8 117.1 117. 2 117. 4 Commodities Services Commodities less food Services All Food Rent less Nonservices All Durable durable rent 100. 3 103. 2 101. 2 101. 5 103. 6 101. 6 101. 0 101. 4 102. 6 101. 7 106. 6 107. 4 100. 9 103. 1 102. 6 102. 0 103. 2 108. 8 104 4 110. 0 100. 8 103. 6 102. 8 101. 8 110.9 112. 1 105. 7 103. 8 102. 1 103. 5 105. 1 113. 0 106.8 114. 5 104.8 106. 4 104. 4 103. 0 115. 2 117. 0 105. 7 107.8 108.8 105. 1 107.2 102.6 117.8 108.9 120.0 114. 2 106. 5 102. 7 122. 3 110. 4 109. 7 125. 0 115. 2 109. 2 112. 4 104. 3 127. 7 113. 1 131. 1 113.2 119.3 107.5 134.3 138.6 117.7 115.1 111. 1 116. 2 115. 2 130. 1 106. 1 113. 5 133. 8 117.0 111.2 130.8 113.7 134.6 106.3 115. 1 117.4 113.9 106.4 115. 6 135. 2 111. 5 131. 3 117. 9 132. 1 111. 9 114. 2 116. 1 136. 1 106. 6 118.3 112. 2 132. 5 116. 4 136. 6 106. 9 114. 4 118.8 112. 5 137. 1 117. 0 114. 6 106. 9 133. 0 119. 1 113.0 107.4 133.9 114.9 138. 1 117.5 120. 0 113. 2 134. 9 139. 3 107. 6 115. 1 117. 6 120. 5 113. 5 140. 0 107.7 118. 1 135. 5 115. 4 115.7 120.4 113.9 140. 5 107.6 136.0 118.9 141. 2 114. 7 116. 0 120. 9 136. 6 119. 7 108. 5 120.2 137.4 116.3 142.0 120.5 115.3 109.3 142. 9 116. 7 121. 2 115. 2 120. 3 138. 1 108. 7 122. 0 139. 0 116. 9 143. 9 115. 0 120. 1 108. 6 WHOLESALE PRICES Preliminary estimates for February indicate that wholesale prices increased 0.3 percent, following a rise of 0.8 percent in January. Industrial commodity prices continued to advance but also at a more moderate rate than in January. Prices of farm products declined slightly while processed foods and feeds registered a small increase. Index, 1957-59=100 Index, 1957-59=100 90 80 1969 1963 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1957-59=100] All commodities Period 1959__ __ 1960 ___ . 1961 1962__ _ 1963 _ _ _ _ _ _ . __ 1964 _ 1965 1966 1967 1968 1968: Jan_ Feb Mar Apr Mav_. _ June__ _ July Aug Sept_ _ Oct___ Nov Dec 1969: Jan.. Feb " . 1 _ _ _ Farm products 100. 6 100. 7 100. 3 100. 6 100. 3 100. 5 102.5 105. 9 106. 1 108.7 107.2 108.0 108. 2 108. 3 108. 5 108.7 109. 1 108.7 109. 1 109. 1 109.6 109.8 97. 2 96.9 96.0 97. 7 95. 7 94. 3 98.4 105. 6 99. 7 102.2 99.0 101. 3 102. 1 102. 1 103. 6 102.5 103.9 101. 4 102.8 101.2 103.1 103.3 110.7 111. 0 104. 9 104. 8 Processed foods and feeds All in- dustri1 als Crude materials Inter- Producmediate er finmate-2 ished rials goods Consumer finished goods excluding food Dur- Non- able durable 103. 1 106.7 113. 0 111. 7 114. 1 112.4 113. 3 112. 9 112. 8 113.6 114.6 115.9 114. 9 115.3 114.4 114.7 114.7 101. 3 101. 3 100. 8 100. 8 100. 7 101. 2 102. 5 104. 7 106. 3 109.0 107.8 108. 3 108. 6 108. 8 108.6 108.8 108.8 108. 9 109. 2 109.7 109.9 110.2 102.3 98.3 97.2 95. 6 94. 3 97. 1 100.9 104. 5 100. 0 101.8 101.4 102. 4 103. 1 101. 7 100. 5 100.6 100. 9 101. 0 101.5 102. 2 103.0 103.8 101. 0 101. 4 100. 1 99. 9 99.6 100. 2 101.5 103. 6 104 8 107.5 106.3 107.0 107.3 107. 5 107.3 107.2 107.3 107.4 107.8 108. 1 108.2 108.8 102. 1 102. 3 102. 5 102. 9 103. 1 104. 1 105.4 108. 0 111. 5 115.3 114.0 114. 2 114. 4 114. 8 114.9 115.1 115. 2 115.4 115.7 116.4 116.9 117.1 101. 3 100. 9 100. 5 100. 0 99.5 99. 9 99.6 100.2 101. 7 103.9 103.5 103. 5 103. 6 103. 5 103.5 103.5 103. 3 103. 6 103.4 104. 9 105.0 105. 0 100.8 101.5 101.5 101. 6 101.9 101. 6 102.8 104. 8 107. 2 109.4 108.0 108. 4 108. 6 109. 0 109. 1 109.8 110. 0 109.7 109.9 110. 0 110.2 110.2 116. 0 116. 1 110. 9 111. 3 105. 0 109. 7 117. 6 105. 1 110. 4 99. 9 100. 0 101.6 102. 7 ioa 3 Coverage of the subgroups does not correspond exactly to coverage of this index. 2 Excludes intermediate materials for food manufacturing and manufactured animal feeds; includes, in part, grain products for further processing. Industrial commodities NOTE.—Beginning January 1967, the indexes incorporate a revised weighting structure rellecting 1963 values of shipments. The classification structure also changed. Source: Department of Labor. 27 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS During the month ended February 1 5, prices received and prices paid by farmers continued to increase about 1 percent. The adjusted parity ratio rose 1 point to 79. Index, 1957-59=100 Index, 1957-59= =100 130 1301 PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES 120 120 110 PRICES RECEIVED (ALL FARM PRODUCTS) 100 90 90 RATI O-l/ RAT OJ/ 100 100 90 90 PARITY RATIO 80 s~**-*s ""''•"X**""*"""""""^ } ./'\ ''4111* 80 '% \f '''>, X/^\,,,X'v'-"v'.«.,,,,.,,X\..,.,,,, H** 70 70 60 1 1964 1963 1965 ! t 1 1 1 1 1966 1 1 1 60 1 1967 1968 1969 J/RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES. ON 1910-14 » 100 BASE. SOURCE^ DEPARTMENT Of AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Period All farm products 1959 1960 ... 1961 1962 _ ... 1963 _ 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1968- Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15___ Apr 15 May 15 June 15 _ July 15 Aug 15 Sept 15 Oct 15_ Nov 15 Dec 15 1969: Jan 15 Feb 15 99 99 99 101 100 98 103 110 104 108 105 106 107 107 108 107 108 108 110 108 108 108 109 110 _. __ __ _ Crops 99 100 102 104 107 107 104 106 100 102 103 102 103 104 105 103 99 101 103 102 102 99 99 101 All items, interest, taxes, and wage rates Index, 1957-59=100 102 100 102 98 103 98 99 105 107 95 107 91 110 101 114 113 107 116 112 121 107 118 109 119 109 120 121 109 121 109 121 111 121 114 121 113 121 116 122 113 113 123 123 115 124 116 117 125 Livestock and products > Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates on 1910-14=100 base. 28 Parity ratio 1 Prices paid by farmers Prices received by farmers Family living items 101 102 102 103 104 105 107 110 113 117 115 116 116 117 117 117 118 118 118 119 119 119 120 120 Production items 102 101 101 103 104 103 105 108 109 111 110 111 111 111 112 112 112 111 111 111 112 113 113 114 Actual 81 80 79 80 78 76 77 80 74 73 73 74 74 73 73 73 73 74 75 73 73 73 72 73 Adjusted 2 82 81 83 83 81 80 82 86 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 81 79 79 79 78 79 * The adjusted parity ratio reflects Government payments made directly to farmers. Source: Department of Agriculture. MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY SUPPLY The seasonally adjusted money supply increased $% billion in February, the smallest increase since September. Time deposits fell $1% billion in February making the decline in the first 2 months of 1969 over $3 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 I AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES, SEASONALLY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 ADJUSTED 225 225 200 200 175 175 ^ 150 f . TIME DEPOSITS AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 150 . 125 125 ^^ 100 100 i ii i ii ii i ii 0 Ii i i i i i \ \ ( i i i i i I 0 1964 1963 1965 1966 1967 SOURCE^ BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 1968 1969 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures, billions of dollars] Period 1963: 1964: 1965: 1966: 1967: 1968: 1967: 1968: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec>__ Dec Dec. Jan. _ Feb Mar _ _ .. Apr May June July Aug Sept _ _ Oct_ Nov __ Dec 1969: Jan Feb» __ __. _ _ __ Money supply CurTime Derency demand Total outposits * deside banks posits Seasonally adjusted 153.0 32.5 112.2 120.5 34.2 159.3 125.1 126.6 166.8 36.3 130.5 146.6 170.4 132.1 38.3 158. 1 40. 4 181. 3 140. 9 183. 5 43.4 193.1 149.6 204.3 40. 4 181. 3 140. 9 183. 5 40. 6 182.3 141. 7 184. 1 182.7 40.7 141.9 185.2 183.4 41. 1 142. 2 186.7 41. 4 184.3 143. 0 187. 1 186. 1 41.6 144. 5 187.6 187. 4 42. 0 145. 4 188. 2 42.2 189.4 147.2 190.4 190.3 42.6 147.6 193.8 189.5 42.7 146.7 196.6 190.2 42. 8 147.4 199. 5 191. 9 43. 2 148. 7 201. 9 193.1 43.4 149.6 204.3 193. 6 43. 6 150. 1 202. 5 193.8 43. 9 149. 9 201. 0 1 Deposits at all commercial banks. NOTE.—Effective June 9,1966, balances accumulated for payment of personal loans (about $1.1 billion) are excluded from time deposits and from loans at all commercial banks. Money supply CurTime Derency demand outTotal posits 1 deside posits banks Unadjusted 111.0 124. 1 33. 1 157.3 125.2 35.0 129. 1 164.0 145.2 134.9 37. 1 172.0 156.9 136.7 39. 1 175.8 182. 0 41. 2 145. 9 187. 1 202.5 154.9 199.2 44.3 182. 0 41. 2 145. 9 187. 1 183.7 40. 5 147. 1 187.6 185.8 141. 1 40.3 181.4 187.7 141. 2 182.0 40. 7 187. 9 41. 1 144. 5 185.6 188.4 41.3 141. 1 182.5 188. 6 41. 9 143. 6 185. 6 144.8 187.2 42.4 190.8 194.4 144.2 42.7 186.9 196.2 42.7 145.8 188.6 42. 9 199. 1 147. 7 190.6 200. 7 43.7 149. 7 193.4 199.2 154.9 202.5 44.3 202. 1 199.4 43.5 155.9 43.4 201.6 192. 5 149. 0 Data include Alaska and Hawaii. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. U.S. Government demand deposits l 5. 1 5.5 4.6 3.4 5.0 4.8 5.0 5.0 7.2 6.6 4.2 6.4 5.4 5.7 5.5 5.9 6. 1 4.2 4.8 4. 7 6. 6 29 SELECTED LIQUID ASSETS HELD BY THE PUBLIC Demand deposits and currency held by the public (seasonally adjusted) rose about $1 billion during February. Time and savings deposits showed a small increase while other types of liquid assets declined. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 800 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 800 700 700 300 200 100 li 100 1963 1969 1964 I/ASSETS OTHER THAN DEMAND DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE.- BOARD Of GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] U.S. Gov- Time deposits Total selected liquid assets End of period 1962 1963 1964 _ _ _ 1965. 1966 1967 459.0 495. 4 530. 5 573.1 601. 5 650. 5 1968* 1968: Jan Feb Mar__ Apr __ May M- J _ June July v . v Aug Sept p _ Get v Nov v Dec 707.0 . p 1969: Jan P" Feb _ 655. 9 658. 7 665. 7 664. 6 667. 9 670. 9 676. 6 679. 7 684.5 692. 6 697. 9 707. 3 700. 5 701. 3 Demand deposits and currency 1 144. 8 149. 6 156. 7 164. 1 168. 6 180. 7 *197. 8 179. 6 178. 3 181. 8 181. 1 183. 9 186. 8 186. 2 186. 0 186.3 187.6 189.4 *197. 8 188. 1 1S9. 2 1 Com- 98. 1 112. 9 127. 1 147. 1 159.3 183. 1 203. 1 186. 5 187. 6 187. 9 187. 6 187. 7 187.9 191. 5 194. 0 195.9 200. 0 204.4 203. 1 202. 8 202. 3 1 Agrees in concept with money supply, p. 29, except for deduction of demand deposits held by mutual savings banks and savings and loan associations. Data for2 last Wednesday of month. Excludes holdings of Government agencies and trust funds, domestic commercial and mutual savings banks, Federal Reserve Banks, and beginning February 1960, savings and loan associations. 30 Mutual savings banks mercial banks 41. 4 44. 5 49.0 52.6 55. 2 60. 3 64.5 3 60. 6 61. 1 61. 4 61. 7 62. 1 62. 6 62. 8 63. 0 63.4 63. 8 64. 3 64.5 64. 8 65. 0 Postal Savings System Savings and loan shares U.S. Government savings bonds 2 ernment securities maturing within one 2 year 0.5 .5 .4 .3 .1 79.8 90. 9 101. 4 109. 8 113.4 123. 9 130.9 3 123. 6 124.6 125. 9 126. 0 126. 5 4 126. 8 127. 2 128. 1 129.5 130. 0 130. 8 130.9 131. 0 132. 0 47. 6 49.0 49. 9 50. 5 50. 9 51. 9 52.5 51. 9 51.8 51. 8 51. 8 51. 8 51. 9 51. 9 52. 0 52. 0 52. 0 52. 1 52.5 52. 5 52. 3 46. 8 48. 1 46. 1 48. 6 53. 9 50. 5 58.2 53. 6 55. 4 57. 0 56. 5 55. 9 54. 9 56. 9 56. 6 57.4 59.2 57.0 58.5 61. 3 60. 5 3 Reflects conversion of a savings and loan association with share capital of about $175 million to a mutual savings bank. * Reflects liquidation of two savings and loan associations. NOTE.—See Note, p. 29. 'Estimates for Dec. 31. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. BANK LOANS, INVESTMENTS, DEBITS, AND RESERVES Total bank credit outstanding rose $1% billion (seasonally adjusted) in February. Loans rose $4 biiiion while investments fell by $21/2 billion. Free reserves fell to the largest net borrowed position since early 1953. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 500 I SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, END OF MONTH ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 400 400 h TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS 300 300 200 INVESTMENTS IN U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES " 100 | \ 0 Ii INVESTMENTS IN OTHER SECURITIES _L i i 1963 i i ii 1964 i i i 11 1965 I I I I I I I ! I I 1966 I ! I ! I I0 1967 1968 SOURCE, BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Bank Weekly debits reporting large com- outside mercial New York Total Investments City (232 banks Loans, End of period loans excluding centers) , and seasonally inter- U.S. Gov- Other Commercial adjusted investbank ernment securi- and indus- annual ments securities ties trial loans rates 1 Billions of dollars 134. 0 64. 6 1962 227. 9 29. 2 35. 2 #, 021 246.2 1963 61.7 38. 8 149. 6 2, 199 35. 0 1 267. 2 42. 1 1964 167. 7 38. 7 2, 706 60. 7 3 192. 6 3,013 57. 1 44. 8 53. 1 1965_ _ _ _ _ ___ 294. 4 310. 5 3,421 208. 2 48. 7 53. 6 1966 60. 7 3, 740 346. 5 225. 4 59. 7 65. 8 1967 61. 4 61. 7 384.5 252.3 74.0 1968 " _ 70.5 4,354 60. 0 349. 9 227. 5 62. 4 1968: Jan 65. 0 4,046 229.2 62.0 353.9 62.7 65. 1 Feb 4,047 4,021 229.0 Mar _ _ 352. 5 59. 9 63. 6 66. 5 355.2 60. 3 231.4 4,215 Apr 67. 6 63. 4 67. 1 357.3 232. 6 61.0 63. 6 4,243 May _ 357. 8 69.2 233. 5 60. 4 63. 9 June _ 4,354 69.2 Julv 365.9 238.4 63. 1 64.4 4,43? 370.4 241. 1 65. 5 68. 1 63. 9 Aug v 4,442 4, 511 69.4 64.0 243.8 67.0 Sept 374.8 69.7 64. 2 68.5 Get * F 379.6 246.9 4,646 71. 2 61. 0 70. 2 Nov 381. 6 250. 4 4,614 4, 676 61.7 74.0 252.3 70.5 Dec *— _ _ _ 384.5 4, 837 71. 0 72. 9 60. 4 253. 8 I960: Jari " _ 385. 3 4,903 Fob »__ 57. 8 73. 7 257. 9 71. 0 386. 7 All commercial banks (seasonally adjusted data) 1 Debits d u r i n g period to demand deposit accounts except interbank and i.S. (ioyernment. New series beginning January 1904. r Averages of dally figures. Annual data are for December. : ' New series; see Federal Reserve Bulletin, March 19G7. NOTI:.— KUVctive J u n e !%(>, balances accumulated for payment of personal 1969 All member banks Total reserves 20, 040 20, 746 21,609 22, 719 23, 830 25, 260 27, 221 25, 834 25, 610 25, 580 25, 546 25, 505 25, 713 26, 001 26, 069 26, 077 26, 653 26, 785 27, 221 28, 063 27, 264 2 Borrowings at Free Excess Federal reserves Reserve reserves Banks Millions of dollars 304 572 327 536 411 243 452 454 392 557 238 345 765 455 237 381 361 399 671 356 683 270 746 420 351 692 525 299 375 565 515 383 427 260 324 569 455 765 217 697 824 197 268 209 168 -2 -165 107 -310 144 38 — 315 -413 -326 — 341 — 226 -190 -132 -167 -245 -310 -480 -627 loans (about $1.1 billion) are excluded from loans at all commercial banks, and certain certificates of CCC and Export-Import Bank totaling about $1 billion are included in other securities rather than in loans. Data include Alaska and Hawaii. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 31 CONSUMER AND REAL ESTATE CREDIT Total consumer credit outstanding showed a large seasonal decrease in January. The seasonally adjusted $640 million increase in instalment credit outstanding was the smallest since last April, reflecting the record volume of repayments. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 20 - - 20 10 10 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (ENLARGED SCALE) INSTALMENT CREDIT EXTENDED _^^~****f^^n 1 1 1 ...••••«"»» """"""" """" ' _-—-^—T— —- ;^£Z^^£p-»» J^mm...-?"'"*""""*""1 A\ 1 | 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1963 1 / i 1 ! 1 I ! 1 1 1 ! '1 1 I 1 1 ! 1 | 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1964 j ^••••••»*' »» "/., INSTALMEh T CREDIT REPAID 1 I i 1 11 1 I I i i 1965 SOURCE. BOARD Of GOVERNORS OF"THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 1966 I i 1 I I 1 I I I I I 1967 1 1 1 1 I 1 t 1 t 1 ! 1968 t I L [ ! 1 1 1 | I 1 tsl 1969 N COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] Mortgage Consumer instalment credit extended Consumer credit outstanding (end of period; debt outand repaid (seasonally adjusted) unadjusted) Instalment Automobile paper standing Total nonfarai, Period NonAutomo1- to 4Total Total l bile Personal instal-2 Extended Repaid Extended Repaid family ment paper loans houses 3 1960 56, 141 42, 968 16, 419 141, 300 17, 658 46, 073 17, 657 10, 617 13, 173 49, 793 57, 982 1961_ 16, 552 43, 891 16, 029 153, 100 17, 135 11, 673 49, 048 48, 124 14, 091 1962 63, 821 48, 720 17, 447 19, 694 166, 500 19, 381 13, 414 56, 191 51, 360 15, 101 1963 ._ _ 182, 200 55, 486 22, 254 22, 126 19, 254 71, 739 15, 618 63, 591 56, 825 16, 253 1964__ 62, 692 80, 268 24, 934 24, 046 21, 369 17, 848 197, 600 17, 576 70, 670 63, 470 1965 90, 314 71, 324 23, 543 27, 227 212, 900 28, 619 20, 412 78, 586 69, 957 18, 990 97, 543 1966 77, 539 27, 341 22, 187 25, 404 223, 600 30, 556 82, 335 76, 120 20, 004 102, 132 1967 80, 926 26, 667 26, 499 30, 724 24, 018 21, 206 236, 100 84, 693 81, 306 113, 191 89, 890 1968 34, 130 31, 424 28, 018 97, 053 88, 089 251, 300 26, 936 23, 301 102, 132 1967: Dec 80, 926 7,001 2, 233 30, 724 7,360 2, 205 24, 018 236, 100 21, 206 2, 254 1968: Jan 101, 260 80, 379 7, 054 2,385 30, 579 7,453 23, 949 20, 881 100, 771 80, 233 Feb 30, 682 2, 559 2,275 24, 076 7, 847 7, 111 20, 538 Mar 100, 981 80, 474 30, 942 2, 605 2, ST16 24, 200 7, 281 239, 300 20, 507 7, 903 102, 257 Apr 81, 328 7,222 2, 509 2, 297 31,331 24, 459 20, 929 7, 863 82, 312 May 103, 411 2, 590 2,327 24, 737 7, 301 31, 818 21, 099 8, 033 104, 620 83, 433 2, 570 June 32, 364 25, 052 2, 289 21, 187 7, 287 243, 300 8, 003 84, 448 2, 352 July 105, 680 32, 874 2, 673 25, 314 21, 232 8, 247 7, 390 107, 090 2, 684 Aug 85, 684 2, 327 33, 325 8, 187 7, 253 25, 725 21, 406 86, 184 2,482 107, 636 21, 452 2, 783 Sept 33, 336 7,701 247, 300 25, 979 8, 416 Oct 2, 782 108, 643 87, 058 2, 391 33, 698 26, 202 8, 533 7, 586 21, 585 2, 363 Nov 87, 953 7,454 110, 035 2,681 33, 925 26, 429 22, 082 8, 288 2, 592 113, 191 89, 890 34, 130 7, 502 Dec 2,357 8,277 26, 936 23, 301 251, 300 1969: Jan__ _ _ _ . 112,117 89, 492 8, 371 7,730 2,661 2,467 34, 013 26, 911 22, 625 1 Also includes other consumer goods paper, and repair and modernization loans, not shown separately. 23 Consists of single-payment loans, charge accounts, and service credit. End of period, unadjusted. 32 NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning January and August 1959, respectively. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Home Loan Bank Board. BOND YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES During February the Treasury bill rate continued to fluctuate near the peak reached in late December, ending the month with an average slightly lower than in January. Other interest rates and bond yields rose to new peaks during February and early March. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM 1963 SOURCE, 1969 SEE TABLE BELOW Period 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 _ -_ _ 1966 1967 1968 1968: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov _ __ _ ___ Dec 1969: Jan_ _ _ Feb__ Week ended: 1969: Feb 14___ 21___ 28___ Mar 7___ 14___ 21___ 1 a COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] High-grade U.S. Government security yields municipal 3-month bonds 3-5 year Taxable 2 3 Treasury (Standard4 & issues bonds bills » Poor's) 2. 378 3.60 3. 90 3. 46 2. 778 3. 57 3. 95 3. 18 3. 157 3. 72 4. 00 3.23 3. 549 4, 15 4. 06 3. 22 3. 954 4. 22 4.21 3. 27 4.881 5. 16 3.82 4. 65 4. 321 5.07 4.85 3. 96 5.339 5.59 5.26 4.51 5. 081 5.53 5. 18 4. 34 4.969 5.59 5. 16 4.39 5. 144 5.77 5. 39 4.56 5. 365 5.69 5. 28 4.41 5. 621 5. 95 5.40 4. 56 5. 544 5.71 5. 23 4. 56 5. 382 5.44 5.09 4.36 5. 095 5. 32 5. 04 4. 31 5. 202 5.30 5. 09 4.47 5. 334 5.42 5. 24 4. 56 5.492 5.47 5.36 4.68 5. 916 5.99 5.66 4.91 6. 177 6. 04 5. 74 4. 95 6. 156 6. 16 5.86 5. 10 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. *6. 199 092 080 215 049 108 6.07 6. 18 6. 29 6. 37 6. 34 5. 76 5. 86 5. 93 5. 95 6.06 Kate on new issues within period. April 1953 to date, bonds due or callable 10 years and after. *5 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. *Npt charted. Data for first of the month, based on the maximum permissible interest rate 6-^ percent beginning early May 1968) and 30-year mortgages paid in 15 years. 5.07 5. 07 5. 17 5.26 5.30 Corporate bonds ( Moody 's) Aaa Baa 4. 35 4. 33 4. 26 4. 40 4.49 5. 13 5.51 6.18 6. 17 6.10 6. 11 6. 21 6. 27 6.28 6.24 6. 02 5. 97 6.09 6. 19 6.45 6. 59 6. 66 5. 08 5. 02 4.86 4. 83 4.87 5.67 6.23 6.94 6. 84 6.80 6. 85 6. 97 7.03 7. 07 6.98 6. 82 6. 79 6. 84 7.01 7.23 7. 32 7.30 6. 66 6. 66 6.68 6. 72 6.75 7.31 7.28 7. 30 7. 39 7.46 Prime FHA commercial new home paper, mortgage 4-6 yields 5 months 5. 80 2. 97 3.26 5. 61 3. 55 5. 47 5. 45 3. 97 4.38 5.46 5.55 6. 29 5.10 6.55 5.90 7.13 5. 60 6.81 5.50 6.81 5.64 6. 78 5. 81 6.83 6. 18 6.94 6.25 7.52 6.19 7.42 5. 88 5.82 7.35 5.80 7.28 5.92 7. 29 6.17 7.36 6. 53 7. 50 6. 61 6.50 6.70 6.75 6. 75 6.75 Sources: Treasury Department, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Housing Administration, Standard & Poor's Corporation, and Moody's Investors Service. 33 COMMON STOCK PRICES, YIELD, AND EARNINGS The common stock price index fluctuated near the December high in January and early February, and then declined sharply in late February and early March. lnde> , 1941-43=10 Index, 1941-43=10 MONTHLY WEEKLY 120 120 110 110 COMPOSITE PRICE INDEX FOR 500 COMMON STOCKS 100 90 80 r" ^s~^\r^^ ,-rV. _/_^ 70 , ! 1 1 1 I I 1 1 ! 1 1 _ 1 1 ii1111 11i / 100 N ^x^| '^A S , , 90 80 70 I 1 1 ! I I 1 1 ! 1 t 60 PERCENT I 1 I f 1 1 1 1 1 I1 PERCENT RAT IO 25 RA TIO 25 PRICE/ EARNINGS RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS 20 — •15 ( 10 I f ! 1963 1 ! 20 ———-*, f ^"""'**^i^ / f 1 1964 \ i I 1965 ! y/ t /* *-*^ 15 t ! 1966 t I t 1963 1964 _ 1965 _ 1966__ _ -__ 1967 1968 1968: Feb Mar Apr May , jJune July j Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec_ __ 1969: Jan Feb_ _ _ Week ended: 1969: Feb 7 14 21 28 Mar 7 14 I I N 10 1969 1 Consumers' goods Total Total 69.87 81.37 88.17 85. 26 91. 93 98.70 90.75 89. 09 95. 67 97. 87 100. 53 100. 30 98. 11 101. 34 103. 76 105. 40 106. 48 102. 04 101. 46 73. 39 86. 19 93.48 91. 08 99. 18 107. 49 98.33 96.77 104, 42 107. 02 109. 73 109. 16 106. 77 110. 53 113. 29 114. 77 116.01 110. 97 110. 15 1941-43=10 63. 30 62. 28 73. 84 76. 35 81.94 85.26 84. 86 74. 10 96. 96 79. 18 86.33 105. 77 98. 13 77.99 77.49 96. 32 104. 08 84,79 106. 86 87. 75 110. 65 89. 04 108. 12 88.38 104. 92 85. 73 107. 57 88. 46 108. 48 91. 36 92. 04 109. 75 111.44 91.91 87. 69 106. 56 105. 47 87.93 103. 22 103. 65 101. 07 98. 26 98. 95 98. 75 111. 112. 109. 106. 107. 107. 106. 108. 104. 102. 103. 103. 98 57 75 71 66 53 Capital goods 1 Includes 500 common stocks: 425 industrials, 55 public utilities, and 20 railroads. Weekly indexes for capital and consumer goods are Wednesday figures; all2 other weekly indexes are averages of daily figures. Aggregate cash dividends (based on latest known annual rate) divided by the aggregate monthly market value of the stocks in the group. Annual yields 34 1 ! COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC AD-VISERS Price index Industrials ~~ 1 1968 1967 SOURCE, STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION Period " ^— r-~— 81 04 34 68 95 00 89. 19 89. 40 87.44 85. 69 86. 72 86. 28 Railroads Dividend yield 2 (percent) 64. 99 69. 91 76.08 68. 21 68. 10 66.42 65.61 62. 62 63.66 62. 92 65. 21 67.55 66. 60 66. 77 66.93 70. 59 70.54 68.65 69. 24 37. 58 45. 46 46.78 46. 34 46. 72 48.84 42.35 41. 68 44. 79 48. 00 51. 72 51.01 48. 80 51. 11 54. 26 53. 74 55. 19 54. 11 54.78 3. 17 3. 01 3.00 3. 40 3. 20 3.07 3.28 3. 34 3. 12 3. 07 ?,. 00 3.00 3.09 3. 01 2. 94 2. 92 2.93 3. 06 3. 10 70. 70. 69. 67. 66. 66. 56.76 56. 48 53. 94 52. 12 51. 34 50. 09 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. Public utilities 64 29 04 16 66 23 Price/ earnings ratio 3 17. 62 18. 08 17. 08 14. 92 17. 52 17. 15 16.40 17.23 17. 61 *17. 37 04 03 12 19 16 18 are3 averages of monthly data. Weekly data are Wednesday figures. Ratio of price index for last day in quarter to quarterly earnings (seasonally adjusted annual rate). Annual ratios are averages of quarterly data. *Not charted. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation. FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS, EXPENDITURES, AND NET LENDING In the first 7 months of the current fiscal year, the total deficit was $10.2 billion; a year earlier it was $22.7 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 160 120 80 (ENLARGED SCALE) +20 SURPLUS {+) OR DEFICIT (ENLARGED SCALE) +20 [-) +10 RECEIPT-EXPENDITURE ACCOUNT 0 -10 - -20 -20 - 1959 I960 1961 1962 1963 1964 J/kECEIPTS LESS EXPENDITURES AND HET LENDING. J/ESTIMATE. SOURCES. TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND BUREAU OF TH6 BUDGET 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969^ 27 1970 FISCAL YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Budget receipts, expenditures, and net lending Period Receipt-expenditure account Loan account Expenditures Net lending Receipts Fiscal year: 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 _ _ _ _ _ 1967 196S___ _ _ _ _ _ 1969 22 _ _ __ 1970 Cumulative totals, first 7 months: Fiscal vear 1968 Fiscal vear 1969 Held by the public 6. 0 1. 4 .9 235.0 237. 1 238.6 248. 3 254.4 257. 5 261. 6 264. 6 267. 5 290. 6 276. 6 272. 6 2.3 .0 -22. 7 -10. 2 365. 0 373. 6 290.4 293. 5 -10.3 2. 1 — 2. 2 -4.8 -4. 9 -5. 4 —. 4 * 2.7 1. 9 1.2 2. 4 -. 1 .5 1. 2 -19.2 3.8 4. 3 79. 4 98. 7 99. 7 108. 0 -20. 4 -a. Total1 287.7 290.8 292. 9 303.2 310.8 316. 7 323. 1 329. 4 341. 3 369. 7 365. 2 371. 5 89. 5 90.3 96. 6 104. 5 111. 5 118.0 117. 2 130.8 153. 3 172. 8 182. 3 194. 4 -3. 7 Gross Federal debt (end of period) -12. 9 2 -3! 4 — 7. 2 -4.7 -5.9 — 1.6 -3.8 -8. 8 -25.2 2.4 3.4 79. 2 92. 5 94. 4 99. 7 106. 6 112. 7 116. 8 130. 9 149. 6 153. 7 186. 1 198. 7 1 Excludes non-intcrest-bearing public debt securities held by IMF. 2 Estimates. Surplus or deficit (-) Total surplus or deficit (-) :\. 8 r>. i Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget. 35 FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 7 months of the current fiscal year, receipts were $19.3 billion over a year earlier while expenditures ana net lending were up $6.8 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 100 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS , .«•*•""" . r OTHER RECEIPTS 120 120 EXPENDITURES AND NET LENDING 100 100 -NONDEFENSE- 80 80 60 60 40 40 NATIONAL DEFENSE - 20 20 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969-^ 1970-L/ * FISCAL YEARS J/ESTIMATE. SOURCES: TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND BUREAU OF THE BUDGET. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Receipts Period Fiscal year: 1959 1960 1961 1962 _ 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 22 1970 Cumulative totals, first 7 months: Fiscal year 1968 Fiscal year 1969 1 Expenditure 1 Estimates. account. 36 Total Individual Corporation income income taxes taxes Other Total 79.2 92.5 94.4 99.7 106.6 112.7 116.8 130.9 149.6 153.7 186.1 198.7 36.7 40.7 41.3 45.6 47.6 48.7 48.8 55.4 61.5 68.7 84.4 90.4 17.3 21.5 21.0 20.5 21.6 23.5 25.5 30.1 34.0 28.7 38.1 37.9 25.2 30.3 32. 1 33.6 37.4 40.5 42.6 45.3 54.1 56.3 63.6 70.4 92.1 92.2 97.8 106.8 111.3 118.6 118.4 134.7 158.4 178.9 183.7 195.3 79.4 98.7 38.9 49.0 11.5 16.3 28.9 33.4 102.1 108.9 Expenditures and net lending National defense InternaHealth tional Departand affairs ment of Total welfare and Defense,l finance military 46.6 45.9 47.4 51.1 52.3 53.6 49.6 56.8 70.1 80.5 81.0 81.5 41.5 41.5 43.3 46.9 48.1 49.6 46.0 54.2 67.5 77.4 77.8 78.5 3.3 3.1 3.4 4.5 4.1 4. 1 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.6 3.9 3.8 17.7 18.7 21.8 23.4 25.3 26.6 27.2 31.3 37.6 43.5 48.8 55.0 44.1 44.7 Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget. Other 24.5 24.5 25.2 27.9 29.7 34.3 37.3 42.1 46.1 50.2 49.9 55.0 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS According to current estimates, Federal receipts rose $5 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter and expenditures increased by $2 billion, yielding a small surplus, the first since the first half of 1966. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 180 180 160 160 140 140 RECEIPTS 120 120 EXPENDITURES .100 k I L I I I i I 100 +20 +20 SURPLUS _ -20 DEFICIT I I 1962 I 1 f 1963 il • r^ 1 1 1 1964 1 tm i 1 i 1965 CALENDAR YEARS • 1 I 1966 —- 0 1 ! i I 1 1 1967 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE I 1 J/ -20 1968 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Government receipts Period Fiscal year: 1965 1966 1967 1968 l 1969 1970 i Calendar year: 1965 1966 1967 1968 * _ _ _ 1967: ITI_ IV_ 1968: I__ II_. IIL IV* 1 Federal Government expenditures Indirect ContriPersonal Corporate business butions tax and for Total nontax profits tax and Total tax nontax socialinreceipts accruals accruals suran ce Surplus or Subsidies deficit GrantsPurless in-aid (-), current Net chases Trans- to State and interest surplus income of goods fer payand local paid of Govt. product and ments enter- accounts services governments prises 120.5 133.0 147.7 161. 1 190.0 202.3 51.3 57.6 64. 5 71. 6 88.6 94.0 27.7 31.2 31.4 34.5 39.3 40.2 16.9 15.7 16.0 17. 1 18.1 19.2 24. 6 28. 5 35. 8 37.9 44.0 48.9 118. 5 131. 9 154. 4 172.4 187.3 199.6 64. 4 71. 7 84. 9 95. 6 101.5 105.6 30. 5 34. 2 39. 4 44. 5 50.1 54.9 10. 9 12. 7 14. 8 17.4 19.6 23.0 8. 5 9. 0 9. 9 10.8 12.0 12.2 4. 1 4. 5 5. 3 4. 1 4.1 3.9 2. 0 1. 0 — 6. 7 — 11. 3 2.7 2.7 124.7 143. 0 151. 2 176.9 152.2 156.4 166.6 171. 8 182. 1 187. 1 53.8 61. 7 67. 3 79.3 68.2 69.7 72.0 74.9 83.7 86.8 29.3 32. 4 30. 9 38.4 30.6 32.4 37.0 38.2 38.6 39.9 16.5 15.8 16.2 17.6 16.3 16.4 17.0 17.5 17.8 18.1 25. 1 33. 1 36.8 41.5 37. 0 37.9 40.5 41.2 42. 0 42.4 123.5 142. 4 163. 6 182.2 165. 1 168.6 175. 1 181. 9 184. 9 186.9 66. 9 77.4 90. 6 100.0 91.3 93.5 97.1 100.0 101. 2 101.7 32.5 35.7 42. 3 47.8 42.9 42.7 45.1 47.7 48. 7 49.5 11. 1 14. 4 15. 7 18.4 15.9 17.0 17.7 18.3 18. 5 19.2 8.7 9. 5 10. 3 11.9 10.2 10.7 11.3 11.8 12. 1 12.3 4.3 5. 4 4. 8 4. 1 4.8 4.6 3.9 4. 1 4.4 4. 1 1. 2 " .7 — 12. 4 -5.3 -12.9 -12.2 -8.6 -10.2 -2.8 .2 Estimates. NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960. Source: Department of Commerce. 37 UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE POSTAGE AND FEES PAID U.S GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS WASHINGTON, D.C. 2O4O2 OFFICIAL BUSINESS First-Class Mail Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING The Nation's Income, Expenditure, and Saving Gross National Product or Expenditure National Income Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Measures of Unemployment and Part-Time Employment Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Weekly Hours of Work—Selected Industries Average Hourly and Weekly Earnings—Selected Industries PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Production of Selected Manufactures Weekly Indicators of Production New Construction New Housing Starts and Applications for Financing Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and New Orders Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. Exports and Imports of Goods and Services U.S. Balance of International Payments PRICES Consumer Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Supply Selected Liquid Assets Held by the Public Bank Loans, Investments, Debits, and Reserves Consumer and Real Estate Credit Bond Yields and Interest Rates Common Stock Prices, Yield, and Earnings FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Budget Receipts, Expenditures, and Net Lending Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 38 Page 1 2 3 4 S 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 NOTE.—Detail In these tables will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Data for Alaska and Hawaii are not included unless specifically noted. Unless otherwise stated, all dollar figures are in current prices. P Indicates preliminary and not available. * Indicates less than $50 million. For sale by the Superintendent ol Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office. Washington, D.C. 20402 Price 25 cents per copy; $3 per year; $4 foreign. Domestic air n.ail $6.10 additional per year. O.5. G O V E R N M E N T P R I N T I N G OFFICE: I9S9