Full text of Economic Indicators : July 2018
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115th Congress, 2nd Session Economic Indicators JULY 2018 (Includes data available as of August 3, 2018) Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 2018 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) Representative Erik Paulsen, Minnesota, Chairman Senator Mike Lee, Utah, Vice Chairman House of Representatives David Schweikert, Arizona Barbara Comstock, Virginia Darin LaHood, Illinois Francis Rooney, Florida Karen Handel, Georgia Carolyn B. Maloney, New York John Delaney, Maryland Alma S. Adams, Ph.D., North Carolina Donald S. Beyer, Jr., Virginia Senate Tom Cotton, Arkansas Ben Sasse, Nebraska Rob Portman, Ohio Ted Cruz, Texas Bill Cassidy, M.D., Louisiana Martin Heinrich, New Mexico, Ranking Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota Gary Peters, Michigan Margaret Wood Hassan, New Hampshire Colin Brainard, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Kevin A. Hassett, Chairman Richard V. Burkhauser, Member Tomas J. Philipson, Member [Public Law 120—81st Congress; Chapter 237—1st Session] JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. R es. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled “Economic Indicators” Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled “Economic Indicators,” and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts prepared under the direction of the Mail and Multimedia Division, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Monthly issues of Economic Indicators in PDF form, and tables in Excel, are available online at: www.gpo.gov/economicindicators To subscribe to the print edition, $58.00 per year ($81.20 outside the United States), contact the U.S. Government Publishing Office at 202-512-1800, www.gpo.gov/economicindicators, or: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE MAIL STOP: IDCC WASHINGTON, DC 20402-9328 ii TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Gross Domestic Product In the second quarter of 2018, according to advance estimates, real gross domestic product (GDP) in chained (2012) dollars rose 4.1 percent (annual rate), current dollar GDP rose 7.4 percent, and the chained price index rose 3.0 percent. (Series revised.) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 20,800 20,800 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 20,400 20,400 20,000 20,000 19,600 19,600 19,200 19,200 18,800 18,800 18,400 18,400 18,000 18,000 17,600 17,600 GDP IN CURRENT DOLLARS 17,200 17,200 16,800 16,800 GDP IN CHAINED (2012) DOLLARS 16,400 16,400 16,000 16,000 15,600 15,600 15,200 15,200 14,800 14,800 14,400 14,400 14,000 14,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 2017 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 2008 r ������������������ 2009 r ������������������ 2010 r ������������������ 2011 r ������������������ 2012 r ������������������ 2013 r ������������������ 2014 r ������������������ 2015 r ������������������ 2016 r ������������������ 2017 r ������������������ 2016: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2017: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2018: I r �������������� II p ������������� Gross domestic product 14,712.8 14,448.9 14,992.1 15,542.6 16,197.0 16,784.9 17,521.7 18,219.3 18,707.2 19,485.4 18,409.1 18,640.7 18,799.6 18,979.2 19,162.6 19,359.1 19,588.1 19,831.8 20,041.0 20,402.5 Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment 9,976.3 9,842.2 10,185.8 10,641.1 11,006.8 11,317.2 11,824.0 12,294.5 12,766.9 13,321.4 12,526.5 12,706.5 12,845.2 12,989.4 13,114.1 13,233.2 13,359.1 13,579.2 13,679.6 13,877.2 2,477.6 1,929.7 2,165.5 2,332.6 2,621.8 2,826.0 3,038.9 3,212.0 3,169.9 3,368.0 3,142.1 3,152.2 3,157.7 3,227.6 3,278.6 3,337.9 3,413.9 3,441.4 3,543.8 3,575.9 Exports and imports of goods and services Net exports –723.1 –396.5 –513.9 –579.5 –568.6 –490.8 –508.3 –521.4 –520.6 –578.4 –522.2 –496.2 –503.7 –560.2 –576.6 –571.9 –557.3 –607.9 –639.2 –552.4 Federal Exports 1,837.1 1,582.0 1,846.3 2,103.0 2,191.3 2,273.4 2,371.0 2,265.0 2,217.6 2,350.2 2,165.6 2,206.6 2,252.5 2,245.6 2,294.1 2,316.3 2,358.3 2,432.0 2,477.4 2,568.9 Imports 2,560.1 1,978.4 2,360.2 2,682.5 2,759.9 2,764.2 2,879.3 2,786.5 2,738.1 2,928.6 2,687.8 2,702.7 2,756.3 2,805.8 2,870.7 2,888.2 2,915.5 3,039.9 3,116.6 3,121.3 Chart 1 - July 2018 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Total 2,982.0 3,073.5 3,154.6 3,148.4 3,137.0 3,132.4 3,167.0 3,234.2 3,291.0 3,374.4 3,262.7 3,278.2 3,300.5 3,322.4 3,346.4 3,360.0 3,372.3 3,419.1 3,456.8 3,501.8 Total 1,150.6 1,218.2 1,297.9 1,298.9 1,286.5 1,226.6 1,214.2 1,220.9 1,232.2 1,265.2 1,223.5 1,225.4 1,235.9 1,244.1 1,252.4 1,264.0 1,263.8 1,280.6 1,294.8 1,312.5 National defense Nondefense 750.3 787.6 828.0 834.0 814.2 764.2 742.5 729.5 727.3 743.9 724.8 722.4 730.6 731.5 734.9 746.7 743.1 750.7 759.0 772.0 400.2 430.6 469.9 465.0 472.4 462.4 471.6 491.3 504.9 521.3 498.7 502.9 505.3 512.7 517.5 517.3 520.7 529.8 535.8 540.5 State and local 1,831.4 1,855.3 1,856.7 1,849.4 1,850.5 1,905.8 1,952.9 2,013.3 2,058.8 2,109.2 2,039.2 2,052.9 2,064.7 2,078.3 2,093.9 2,096.0 2,108.5 2,138.5 2,162.0 2,189.3 Final Addendum: Gross sales of Gross domestic domestic purchases national 1 product product 14,742.1 14,599.7 14,938.1 15,496.3 16,125.8 16,680.3 17,437.3 18,090.6 18,678.2 19,459.9 18,361.1 18,615.6 18,799.2 18,937.1 19,154.6 19,342.1 19,532.7 19,810.4 20,004.7 20,408.5 15,435.9 14,867.5 14,845.4 14,590.9 15,506.0 15,187.8 16,122.0 15,779.0 16,765.6 16,429.3 17,275.6 17,015.6 18,030.0 17,763.4 18,740.7 18,445.5 19,227.8 18,922.5 20,063.8 19,729.1 18,931.3 18,613.3 19,136.9 18,853.3 19,303.4 18,997.5 19,539.4 19,226.0 19,739.1 19,395.3 19,931.1 19,575.4 20,145.3 19,843.0 20,439.7 20,102.6 20,680.2 20,309.8 20,954.9 ����������������� 1 GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Note: GDP and related data reflect the comprehensive revision released on July 27, 2018. See Survey of Current Business, August 2018 for details. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 1 Real Gross Domestic Product [Billions of chained (2012) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 2008 r ������������������ 2009 r ������������������ 2010 r ������������������ 2011 r ������������������ 2012 r ������������������ 2013 r ������������������ 2014 r ������������������ 2015 r ������������������ 2016 r ������������������ 2017 r ������������������ 2016: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2017: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2018: I r �������������� II p ������������� Gross private domestic investment Personal Gross conChange domestic sumption Nonresi- Resiin product expendi- dential dential fixed fixed private tures investinvestinvenment ment tories 15,604.7 15,208.8 15,598.8 15,840.7 16,197.0 16,495.4 16,899.8 17,386.7 17,659.2 18,050.7 17,523.4 17,622.5 17,706.7 17,784.2 17,863.0 17,995.2 18,120.8 18,223.8 18,324.0 18,507.2 10,592.8 10,460.0 10,643.0 10,843.8 11,006.8 11,166.9 11,494.3 11,921.9 12,248.2 12,558.7 12,111.8 12,214.1 12,294.3 12,372.7 12,427.6 12,515.9 12,584.9 12,706.4 12,722.8 12,847.8 1,994.2 1,704.3 1,781.0 1,935.4 2,118.5 2,206.0 2,357.4 2,399.7 2,411.2 2,538.1 2,380.9 2,403.3 2,430.3 2,430.4 2,486.5 2,530.8 2,552.3 2,582.7 2,654.0 2,701.5 504.6 395.3 383.0 382.5 432.0 485.5 504.2 555.3 591.3 611.1 590.9 589.4 586.9 597.9 613.8 605.2 604.5 620.7 615.3 613.7 –32.7 –177.3 57.3 46.7 71.2 108.7 86.6 129.0 23.4 22.5 50.7 17.8 –14.1 39.1 –2.4 11.9 64.4 16.1 30.3 –27.9 Exports and imports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total –661.6 –484.8 –565.9 –568.1 –568.6 –532.8 –577.7 –724.9 –786.2 –858.7 –777.9 –764.1 –766.3 –836.7 –845.5 –844.1 –845.9 –899.2 –902.4 –849.9 1,925.4 1,763.8 1,977.9 2,119.0 2,191.3 2,269.6 2,367.0 2,380.6 2,378.1 2,450.1 2,351.1 2,370.9 2,406.4 2,384.2 2,413.3 2,435.0 2,456.1 2,495.9 2,517.8 2,574.2 2,587.1 2,248.6 2,543.8 2,687.1 2,759.9 2,802.4 2,944.7 3,105.5 3,164.4 3,308.7 3,129.0 3,135.0 3,172.6 3,220.9 3,258.8 3,279.1 3,302.0 3,395.1 3,420.1 3,424.1 3,195.6 3,307.3 3,307.2 3,203.3 3,137.0 3,061.0 3,032.3 3,088.5 3,132.5 3,130.4 3,133.3 3,126.7 3,134.4 3,135.6 3,129.6 3,130.0 3,121.8 3,140.2 3,152.2 3,168.9 National Nondefense defense Total 1,218.8 1,293.0 1,346.1 1,311.1 1,286.5 1,215.3 1,183.2 1,183.0 1,187.8 1,196.4 1,188.6 1,183.9 1,188.7 1,190.1 1,190.0 1,197.1 1,193.2 1,205.2 1,213.1 1,223.4 791.5 836.7 861.3 842.9 814.2 759.6 728.0 713.5 709.2 713.8 711.7 705.8 710.7 708.5 707.9 717.6 712.3 717.5 722.8 732.6 427.3 456.3 484.8 468.3 472.4 455.6 455.0 469.1 478.0 481.9 476.3 477.4 477.3 480.9 481.4 478.9 480.3 487.0 489.5 490.2 AddenFinal Gross dum: sales of domestic Gross domestic purchases 1 national product product State and local 1,978.7 2,015.6 1,961.3 1,892.2 1,850.5 1,845.3 1,848.1 1,903.9 1,942.8 1,932.3 1,942.9 1,940.9 1,943.8 1,943.6 1,937.7 1,931.3 1,926.9 1,933.5 1,937.7 1,944.3 15,639.7 15,373.0 15,546.6 15,796.5 16,125.8 16,386.2 16,809.9 17,253.6 17,617.5 18,008.7 17,459.7 17,586.2 17,696.3 17,728.0 17,841.9 17,963.6 18,042.6 18,186.5 18,274.4 18,503.7 16,270.7 15,771.6 15,698.9 15,359.4 16,164.7 15,803.9 16,408.8 16,081.7 16,765.6 16,429.3 17,028.6 16,722.3 17,475.9 17,135.1 18,099.6 17,608.3 18,428.0 17,867.8 18,881.0 18,284.0 18,284.9 17,723.3 18,372.8 17,829.1 18,457.8 17,898.4 18,596.4 18,020.4 18,681.9 18,087.6 18,813.5 18,203.6 18,941.2 18,364.1 19,087.4 18,480.8 19,190.2 18,581.5 19,328.0 �������������� 1 GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Note: Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2012) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. See Note, p.1. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). Chained Price Indexes For Gross Domestic Product [Index numbers, 2012=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Period Gross domestic product 2008 r ������������������ 2009 r ������������������ 2010 r ������������������ 2011 r ������������������ 2012 r ������������������ 2013 r ������������������ 2014 r ������������������ 2015 r ������������������ 2016 r ������������������ 2017 r ������������������ 2016: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2017: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2018: I r �������������� II p ������������� 94.264 94.999 96.109 98.112 100.000 101.773 103.687 104.757 105.899 107.932 105.043 105.738 106.110 106.703 107.233 107.553 108.134 108.807 109.348 110.169 Personal consumption expenditures Total 94.180 94.094 95.705 98.131 100.000 101.346 102.868 103.126 104.235 106.073 103.428 104.036 104.485 104.989 105.528 105.735 106.156 106.873 107.524 108.016 Goods Services 96.122 93.812 95.183 98.773 100.000 99.407 98.939 95.889 94.340 94.632 94.193 94.470 94.259 94.440 94.964 94.298 94.462 94.804 95.324 95.426 Note: See Note, p.1. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 2 Gross private domestic investment 93.235 94.231 95.957 97.814 100.000 102.316 104.852 106.823 109.325 111.984 108.171 108.953 109.751 110.425 110.972 111.644 112.201 113.120 113.840 114.543 Nonresidential fixed 99.832 99.184 97.416 98.559 100.000 100.251 101.565 102.081 101.281 101.962 101.215 101.341 101.157 101.413 101.559 101.818 102.147 102.325 102.501 103.004 Residential fixed 102.249 98.671 98.317 99.049 100.000 105.054 111.106 114.100 118.185 123.495 115.804 117.326 119.058 120.551 121.446 122.955 124.320 125.258 127.938 130.271 Exports and imports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Exports 95.410 89.694 93.348 99.242 100.000 100.168 100.169 95.146 93.248 95.923 92.116 93.073 93.612 94.192 95.071 95.135 96.032 97.455 98.411 99.808 Imports 98.960 87.987 92.783 99.826 100.000 98.636 97.777 89.728 86.531 88.511 85.902 86.216 86.884 87.121 88.099 88.089 88.307 89.548 91.134 91.165 Total 94.381 94.214 96.421 99.070 100.000 100.931 102.618 103.200 103.737 105.753 102.934 103.502 103.970 104.541 105.245 105.594 105.914 106.257 106.739 107.283 National defense 94.801 94.126 96.128 98.946 100.000 100.609 101.995 102.256 102.557 104.209 101.836 102.356 102.794 103.241 103.821 104.056 104.322 104.637 105.010 105.382 Nondefense 93.597 94.364 96.942 99.289 100.000 101.478 103.656 104.739 105.631 108.188 104.706 105.346 105.858 106.613 107.502 108.023 108.422 108.806 109.452 110.249 State and local 92.558 92.048 94.669 97.739 100.000 103.279 105.670 105.748 105.970 109.155 104.962 105.769 106.218 106.931 108.061 108.528 109.428 110.603 111.572 112.598 Gross Domestic Product and Related Price Measures: Indexes and Percent Changes [Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Percent change from preceding period 1 Index numbers, 2012=100 Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) Gross domestic product (GDP) Period Real GDP GDP (chain-type chain-type quantity price index) index 2008 r �������������������� 2009 r �������������������� 2010 r �������������������� 2011 r �������������������� 2012 r �������������������� 2013 r �������������������� 2014 r �������������������� 2015 r �������������������� 2016 r �������������������� 2017 r �������������������� 2016: I r ���������������� II r ��������������� III r �������������� IV r �������������� 2017: I r ���������������� II r ��������������� III r �������������� IV r �������������� 2018: I r ���������������� II p ��������������� 96.343 93.899 96.306 97.800 100.000 101.842 104.339 107.345 109.027 111.445 108.189 108.801 109.321 109.799 110.286 111.102 111.878 112.513 113.132 114.263 GDP implicit price deflator 94.264 94.999 96.109 98.112 100.000 101.773 103.687 104.757 105.899 107.932 105.043 105.738 106.110 106.703 107.233 107.553 108.134 108.807 109.348 110.169 PCE PCE less food (chain-type and price index) priceenergy index 94.285 95.004 96.111 98.118 100.000 101.755 103.680 104.789 105.935 107.948 105.055 105.778 106.172 106.720 107.275 107.580 108.097 108.824 109.371 110.241 94.180 94.094 95.705 98.131 100.000 101.346 102.868 103.126 104.235 106.073 103.428 104.036 104.485 104.989 105.528 105.735 106.156 106.873 107.524 108.016 94.225 95.315 96.608 98.139 100.000 101.526 103.168 104.501 106.237 107.961 105.461 106.008 106.546 106.933 107.365 107.724 108.102 108.654 109.242 109.772 Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) Gross domestic product (GDP) Gross domestic purchases price index 94.849 94.559 95.923 98.246 100.000 101.468 103.178 103.512 104.306 106.249 103.525 104.121 104.521 105.055 105.619 105.915 106.393 107.069 107.742 108.348 GDP (current dollars) Real GDP GDP (chain-type chain-type quantity price index) index 1.8 –1.8 3.8 3.7 4.2 3.6 4.4 4.0 2.7 4.2 1.2 5.1 3.5 3.9 3.9 4.2 4.8 5.1 4.3 7.4 –0.1 –2.5 2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.9 1.6 2.2 1.5 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.8 3.0 2.8 2.3 2.2 4.1 GDP implicit price deflator 1.9 .8 1.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.0 1.1 1.9 –.2 2.7 1.4 2.3 2.0 1.2 2.2 2.5 2.0 3.0 Gross domestic PCE purchases PCE food price index (chain-type lessenergy price index) and price index 1.9 .8 1.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.1 1.1 1.9 –.3 2.8 1.5 2.1 2.1 1.1 1.9 2.7 2.0 3.2 3.0 –.1 1.7 2.5 1.9 1.3 1.5 .3 1.1 1.8 .2 2.4 1.7 1.9 2.1 .8 1.6 2.7 2.5 1.8 2.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.0 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.4 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.9 –.3 1.4 2.4 1.8 1.5 1.7 .3 .8 1.9 –.5 2.3 1.5 2.1 2.2 1.1 1.8 2.6 2.5 2.3 1 Quarterly percent changes are at annual rates. Note: See Note, p.1. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). Nonfinancial Corporate Business— Gross Value Added and Price, Costs, and Profits [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Current dollars 2008 r ������������������ 2009 r ������������������ 2010 r ������������������ 2011 r ������������������ 2012 r ������������������ 2013 r ������������������ 2014 r ������������������ 2015 r ������������������ 2016 r ������������������ 2017 r ������������������ 2015: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2016: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2017: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2018: I r �������������� Price per unit of real gross value added of nonfinancial corporate business (dollars) 1, 2 Gross value added of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars) 1 7,286.7 6,864.6 7,243.2 7,615.3 8,059.1 8,374.1 8,780.3 9,136.3 9,245.4 9,644.4 9,060.7 9,096.7 9,199.7 9,188.2 9,237.7 9,189.3 9,247.7 9,307.1 9,517.1 9,628.9 9,660.8 9,770.7 9,926.7 Chained (2012) dollars 7,809.2 7,255.1 7,568.0 7,774.1 8,059.1 8,261.5 8,517.3 8,810.0 8,942.5 9,246.1 8,772.2 8,772.0 8,832.2 8,863.4 8,945.6 8,863.3 9,000.0 8,961.2 9,071.4 9,233.7 9,291.9 9,387.3 9,508.7 Total 0.933 .946 .957 .980 1.000 1.014 1.031 1.037 1.034 1.043 1.033 1.037 1.042 1.037 1.033 1.037 1.028 1.039 1.049 1.043 1.040 1.041 1.044 Compensation of employees (unit labor cost) 0.559 .564 .551 .562 .572 .577 .590 .601 .607 .616 .596 .601 .602 .603 .601 .609 .604 .613 .620 .613 .616 .614 .616 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments 4 Unit nonlabor cost Total 0.269 .284 .279 .283 .285 .289 .292 .294 .294 .297 .289 .292 .292 .302 .291 .295 .292 .298 .298 .296 .296 .297 .296 Consumption of fixed capital Net interest Taxes on and production miscellaneous and imports 3 payments 0.141 .153 .148 .150 .153 .155 .159 .160 .160 .161 .158 .160 .160 .160 .159 .161 .160 .161 .162 .161 .161 .161 .161 0.087 .092 .094 .096 .096 .100 .100 .100 .097 .099 .097 .098 .097 .106 .095 .096 .096 .099 .099 .099 .099 .100 .099 0.040 .039 .037 .036 .036 .034 .034 .035 .037 .036 .034 .034 .035 .035 .036 .037 .037 .038 .037 .036 .036 .036 .036 Total 0.106 .097 .127 .134 .143 .148 .149 .143 .133 .130 .148 .144 .148 .132 .141 .133 .131 .128 .131 .133 .127 .130 .131 Taxes on corporate income 0.027 .022 .027 .027 .030 .032 .034 .032 .030 .027 .034 .034 .032 .028 .030 .031 .031 .030 .028 .028 .027 .024 .016 Profits after tax 5 0.079 .075 .100 .107 .112 .116 .115 .111 .103 .104 .113 .110 .116 .103 .111 .102 .100 .098 .103 .106 .100 .106 .116 1 Estimates for nonfinancial corporate business are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). 2 The implicit price deflator for gross value added of nonfinancial corporate business divided by 100. 3 Less subsidies plus business current transfer payments. 4 Unit profits from current production. 5 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Note: See Note, p.1. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 3 National Income [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Proprietors’ income 1 Period ComNational pensation of income employees 2008 r ������������������ 12,325.8 2009 r ������������������ 12,027.2 2010 r ������������������ 12,735.8 2011 r ������������������ 13,357.7 2012 r ������������������ 14,094.7 2013 r ������������������ 14,494.7 2014 r ������������������ 15,245.5 2015 r ������������������ 15,783.0 2016 r ������������������ 16,058.9 2017 r ������������������ 16,756.1 2016: I r �������������� 15,887.7 II r ������������� 15,953.9 III r ������������ 16,081.2 IV r ������������ 16,312.9 2017: I r �������������� 16,525.2 II r ������������� 16,661.1 III r ������������ 16,822.6 IV r ������������ 17,015.3 2018: I r �������������� 17,265.8 II p ������������� �������������� 8,057.0 7,758.5 7,924.9 8,225.9 8,566.7 8,834.2 9,248.1 9,696.8 9,956.2 10,407.2 9,839.5 9,890.2 9,986.1 10,109.3 10,249.2 10,339.9 10,471.2 10,568.6 10,709.6 10,818.9 Rental income of persons with capital conNonfarm sumption adjustment Farm 40.2 28.1 39.0 64.9 60.9 88.3 70.1 56.4 37.5 38.9 40.9 41.2 36.7 31.0 42.3 41.5 36.4 35.4 35.2 39.6 920.7 910.5 1,069.7 1,164.4 1,286.4 1,315.3 1,377.5 1,365.5 1,381.8 1,462.0 1,374.4 1,363.4 1,382.0 1,407.6 1,432.9 1,453.5 1,471.1 1,490.6 1,514.7 1,529.5 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Net interest and Capital miscelconsumption laneous Inventory adjust- payments valuation ment adjustment Taxes on production and imports Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total Total Profits before tax 256.7 1,285.8 1,344.5 1,379.3 –34.8 327.3 1,386.8 1,470.1 1,467.5 2.6 394.2 1,728.7 1,786.4 1,834.0 –47.6 478.6 1,809.8 1,750.2 1,818.2 –68.0 518.0 1,997.4 2,144.7 2,156.1 –11.4 557.0 2,010.7 2,165.9 2,151.5 14.4 608.4 2,118.8 2,266.1 2,262.5 3.6 651.8 2,057.3 2,187.0 2,134.2 52.8 694.8 2,035.0 2,128.7 2,129.7 –1.0 730.2 2,099.3 2,136.4 2,181.9 –45.5 685.2 1,995.2 2,101.2 2,037.8 63.4 694.0 2,017.7 2,114.4 2,146.8 –32.4 696.3 2,044.6 2,132.3 2,137.5 –5.2 703.8 2,082.4 2,166.8 2,196.7 –29.9 719.0 2,055.9 2,148.0 2,211.8 –63.8 724.4 2,089.5 2,187.3 2,200.4 –13.0 732.0 2,101.1 2,199.9 2,230.7 –30.8 745.3 2,150.7 2,010.3 2,084.6 –74.4 749.3 2,177.3 2,036.9 2,111.0 –74.1 757.9 �������������� �������������� �������������� �������������� –58.6 –83.3 –57.7 59.6 –147.2 –155.2 –147.3 –129.8 –93.7 –37.1 –106.0 –96.7 –87.7 –84.5 –92.1 –97.9 –98.8 140.4 140.4 135.0 672.4 539.3 465.2 461.7 503.7 465.9 517.9 591.8 546.0 576.4 562.8 548.0 535.3 537.7 589.3 574.6 561.5 580.1 591.9 580.4 Business Less: current Subsidies transfer payments 1,049.7 1,026.8 1,063.1 1,103.7 1,136.1 1,188.7 1,240.9 1,269.9 1,303.7 1,347.2 1,288.9 1,294.6 1,310.8 1,320.7 1,326.1 1,338.9 1,353.7 1,370.0 1,397.9 1,413.0 52.6 58.3 55.8 60.0 58.0 59.7 58.1 57.3 61.8 61.3 60.8 62.4 63.1 60.9 59.6 58.4 63.0 64.2 60.5 60.0 114.0 124.4 126.8 128.1 98.8 110.3 132.9 156.7 168.1 161.2 163.8 170.1 154.8 183.6 173.0 160.7 164.0 147.0 161.2 148.9 Current surplus of government enterprises –18.2 –16.1 –20.1 –19.4 –15.4 –15.9 –11.0 –5.8 –2.3 –4.9 –2.0 –2.8 –2.3 –2.3 –2.8 –3.5 –5.4 –8.2 –10.8 –13.0 1 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Note: See Note, p. 1. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). Real Personal Consumption Expenditures [Billions of chained (2012) dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Goods Period Total personal consumption expenditures 2008 r ������������������ 2009 r ������������������ 2010 r ������������������ 2011 r ������������������ 2012 r ������������������ 2013 r ������������������ 2014 r ������������������ 2015 r ������������������ 2016 r ������������������ 2017 r ������������������ 2016: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2017: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2018: I r �������������� II p ������������� 10,592.8 10,460.0 10,643.0 10,843.8 11,006.8 11,166.9 11,494.3 11,921.9 12,248.2 12,558.7 12,111.8 12,214.1 12,294.3 12,372.7 12,427.6 12,515.9 12,584.9 12,706.4 12,722.8 12,847.8 Services Durable Total goods 3,498.9 3,389.8 3,485.7 3,561.8 3,637.7 3,752.2 3,902.9 4,087.7 4,236.1 4,391.9 4,174.6 4,223.9 4,258.5 4,287.2 4,307.3 4,366.0 4,410.2 4,483.9 4,477.0 4,541.8 Total durable goods 1 1,036.4 973.0 1,027.3 1,079.7 1,144.2 1,214.1 1,301.0 1,399.4 1,476.8 1,577.9 1,434.9 1,457.9 1,494.3 1,520.2 1,527.2 1,559.2 1,588.6 1,636.6 1,628.2 1,664.9 Nondurable Motor vehicles and parts 373.1 346.7 360.0 370.1 396.6 415.3 439.8 471.4 486.5 507.2 470.9 477.0 493.2 504.9 494.3 498.0 508.4 528.3 510.7 521.1 Total nondurable goods 1 2,463.9 2,423.1 2,461.3 2,482.9 2,493.5 2,538.5 2,603.7 2,691.7 2,763.9 2,822.0 2,743.4 2,770.0 2,769.2 2,773.2 2,786.3 2,813.9 2,829.9 2,857.7 2,858.6 2,888.4 Food and beverages purchased for offpremises consumption Gasoline and other energy goods Total services 1 Household consumption expenditures 831.0 825.3 837.7 839.0 846.2 855.5 872.1 884.9 916.8 938.9 900.8 917.0 921.9 927.4 930.2 932.3 939.7 953.5 958.6 964.5 437.5 440.1 437.9 427.8 421.9 429.7 430.1 449.9 452.0 446.5 461.5 452.2 449.1 445.1 442.8 450.6 447.1 445.4 441.9 445.2 7,093.0 7,070.1 7,157.4 7,282.1 7,369.1 7,415.5 7,594.0 7,840.0 8,022.5 8,184.5 7,945.5 8,000.4 8,047.0 8,096.9 8,131.9 8,165.6 8,193.7 8,246.6 8,267.9 8,331.8 6,815.4 6,781.3 6,859.0 6,969.3 7,027.5 7,069.8 7,247.9 7,506.1 7,677.3 7,842.2 7,604.1 7,661.4 7,694.9 7,748.8 7,786.8 7,821.9 7,855.0 7,904.9 7,915.2 7,971.0 Housing and utilities 1,921.2 1,943.1 1,966.8 1,993.0 1,996.3 2,006.4 2,044.4 2,089.4 2,116.6 2,129.9 2,101.7 2,116.5 2,127.5 2,120.5 2,114.8 2,130.0 2,131.6 2,143.2 2,146.0 2,158.5 Health care 1,697.9 1,735.1 1,761.7 1,788.7 1,821.3 1,832.6 1,890.4 2,000.1 2,081.7 2,145.8 2,048.1 2,085.6 2,077.0 2,116.2 2,127.3 2,129.2 2,156.8 2,169.7 2,177.3 2,195.9 Financial services and insurance 825.0 809.5 810.5 831.4 820.1 815.2 819.2 841.9 827.4 848.4 830.1 822.7 828.8 827.9 842.7 844.7 851.0 855.1 852.7 855.1 Addendum: Personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy 2 Retail sales of new passenger cars and light trucks (millions of units) 9,119.2 8,988.1 9,151.3 9,363.2 9,531.1 9,667.6 9,974.9 10,371.8 10,661.9 10,950.3 10,545.5 10,626.4 10,695.2 10,780.4 10,842.6 10,909.5 10,975.1 11,073.9 11,091.8 11,201.1 13.2 10.4 11.6 12.7 14.4 15.5 16.5 17.4 17.5 17.1 17.3 17.3 17.6 17.6 17.1 16.8 17.1 17.6 17.1 17.2 1 Includes other items, not shown separately. 2 Food consists of food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption; food services, which include purchased meals and beverages, are not classified as food. Note: Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2012) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. See Note, p.1. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 4 Sources of Personal Income Personal income rose $71.7 billion (annual rate) in June, following an increase of $65.9 billion in May. Wages and salaries rose $31.5 billion in June, following an increase of $28.0 billion in May. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 18,000 16,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 18,000 16,000 14,000 14,000 TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME 12,000 12,000 10,000 10,000 9,000 9,000 WAGES AND SALARIES 8,000 8,000 7,000 7,000 6,000 6,000 OTHER INCOME 5,000 5,000 4,000 4,000 PERSONAL CURRENT TRANSFER RECEIPTS 3,000 3,000 2,000 2,000 1,000 1,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Compensation of employees Period 2008 r ������������������ 2009 r ������������������ 2010 r ������������������ 2011 r ������������������ 2012 r ������������������ 2013 r ������������������ 2014 r ������������������ 2015 r ������������������ 2016 r ������������������ 2017 r ������������������ 2017: June r ������� July r �������� Aug r ��������� Sept r �������� Oct r ���������� Nov r ��������� Dec r ��������� 2018: Jan r ��������� Feb r ��������� Mar r �������� Apr r ��������� May r �������� June p ������� Total personal income 12,442.2 12,059.1 12,551.6 13,326.8 14,010.1 14,181.1 14,991.8 15,719.5 16,125.1 16,830.9 16,750.4 16,818.6 16,891.8 16,974.9 17,043.3 17,101.2 17,164.6 17,257.5 17,315.3 17,383.7 17,434.8 17,500.7 17,572.4 Total 8,057.0 7,758.5 7,924.9 8,225.9 8,566.7 8,834.2 9,248.1 9,696.8 9,956.2 10,407.2 10,378.8 10,434.4 10,469.6 10,509.5 10,524.2 10,569.4 10,612.1 10,673.7 10,708.5 10,746.7 10,784.7 10,817.5 10,854.5 Wages and salaries Supplements to wages and salaries 6,534.2 6,248.6 6,372.1 6,625.9 6,927.5 7,113.2 7,473.2 7,854.4 8,080.7 8,453.8 8,427.9 8,475.7 8,505.0 8,539.1 8,549.4 8,588.9 8,626.0 8,679.3 8,709.1 8,742.3 8,775.4 8,803.4 8,834.9 1,522.7 1,509.9 1,552.9 1,600.0 1,639.2 1,721.0 1,774.8 1,842.4 1,875.6 1,953.4 1,950.9 1,958.7 1,964.6 1,970.5 1,974.8 1,980.5 1,986.1 1,994.4 1,999.3 2,004.4 2,009.3 2,014.2 2,019.6 Proprietors’ income 1 Farm 40.2 28.1 39.0 64.9 60.9 88.3 70.1 56.4 37.5 38.9 37.1 36.3 36.2 36.6 36.7 35.8 33.8 34.5 35.2 36.0 37.8 39.6 41.4 Nonfarm 920.7 910.5 1,069.7 1,164.4 1,286.4 1,315.3 1,377.5 1,365.5 1,381.8 1,462.0 1,465.9 1,462.6 1,471.8 1,478.9 1,483.2 1,497.1 1,491.6 1,504.1 1,516.1 1,523.9 1,522.1 1,530.4 1,536.0 Personal income receipts on assets Rental income of persons 2 256.7 327.3 394.2 478.6 518.0 557.0 608.4 651.8 694.8 730.2 726.0 728.0 731.0 737.1 743.3 746.3 746.3 745.7 748.6 753.6 754.4 757.4 761.9 Total 2,200.9 1,852.2 1,782.3 1,950.9 2,165.6 2,066.3 2,301.2 2,471.3 2,516.6 2,631.6 2,588.6 2,597.8 2,613.3 2,634.3 2,668.3 2,692.4 2,717.9 2,712.3 2,719.8 2,726.4 2,729.7 2,749.3 2,768.9 Personal interest income 1,396.3 1,299.3 1,238.5 1,269.4 1,330.5 1,273.0 1,347.8 1,438.1 1,440.9 1,523.0 1,474.7 1,486.2 1,499.5 1,514.6 1,548.5 1,578.6 1,604.5 1,601.1 1,597.6 1,594.2 1,600.6 1,606.9 1,613.3 Personal dividend income 804.6 553.0 543.9 681.5 835.1 793.3 953.4 1,033.3 1,075.7 1,108.6 1,113.9 1,111.6 1,113.9 1,119.7 1,119.8 1,113.8 1,113.4 1,111.2 1,122.2 1,132.3 1,129.1 1,142.4 1,155.6 Personal current transfer receipts 3 1,955.1 2,146.7 2,325.2 2,358.7 2,363.0 2,424.3 2,540.3 2,683.0 2,778.1 2,859.7 2,849.0 2,861.3 2,875.7 2,888.8 2,899.6 2,877.5 2,885.6 2,926.2 2,930.4 2,945.2 2,958.8 2,963.0 2,970.8 Less:5 - Jul 2018 Chart Contributions for government social insurance, domestic 988.4 964.3 983.7 916.7 950.5 1,104.3 1,153.8 1,205.3 1,239.9 1,298.6 1,295.0 1,301.9 1,305.8 1,310.3 1,312.1 1,317.3 1,322.5 1,338.9 1,343.2 1,348.0 1,352.7 1,356.6 1,361.0 1 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 2 With capital consumption adjustment. 3 Consists mainly of social insurance benefits to persons. Note: Data reflect comprehensive revisions released on July 31, 2018. For details, see Survey of Current Business, August 2018. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 5 Disposition of Personal Income According to advance estimates, per capita disposable personal income in chained (2012) dollars rose 1.9 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 16,000 15,500 15,000 14,500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 16,000 15,500 15,000 14,500 14,000 14,000 13,500 13,500 DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 13,000 13,000 12,500 12,500 SAVING 12,000 12,000 11,500 11,500 11,000 11,000 PERSONAL OUTLAYS 10,500 10,500 10,000 10,000 DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 48,000 DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 48,000 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 46,000 46,000 44,000 44,000 42,000 42,000 CURRENT DOLLARS 40,000 40,000 38,000 38,000 CHAINED (2012) DOLLARS 36,000 36,000 34,000 34,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Personal income Less: Personal current taxes Equals: Disposable personal income 12,442.2 12,059.1 12,551.6 13,326.8 14,010.1 14,181.1 14,991.8 15,719.5 16,125.1 16,830.9 1,507.2 1,152.0 1,237.3 1,453.2 1,508.9 1,675.8 1,785.4 1,935.2 1,954.3 2,034.6 10,935.0 10,907.1 11,314.3 11,873.6 12,501.2 12,505.3 13,206.4 13,784.3 14,170.9 14,796.3 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Less: Personal outlays 1 Equals: Personal saving Disposable personal income in billions of chained (2012) dollars Per capita disposable personal income Current dollars Billions of dollars 2008 r ������������������ 2009 r ������������������ 2010 r ������������������ 2011 r ������������������ 2012 r ������������������ 2013 r ������������������ 2014 r ������������������ 2015 r ������������������ 2016 r ������������������ 2017 r ������������������ 2017 Chained (2012) dollars Per capita personal consumption expenditures Current dollars Chained (2012) dollars Dollars 10,390.1 10,240.6 10,573.5 11,023.7 11,393.6 11,703.9 12,236.1 12,740.1 13,222.7 13,809.5 544.9 666.5 740.9 849.8 1,107.6 801.4 970.3 1,044.2 948.2 986.8 11,610.8 11,591.7 11,822.1 12,099.8 12,501.2 12,339.1 12,838.1 13,366.5 13,595.2 13,949.2 35,906 35,500 36,522 38,044 39,765 39,499 41,405 42,899 43,782 45,390 Chart 6 - Jul 2018 Percent Saving change as in real percent per capita of disposable disposable personal personal income income Population, including Armed Forces overseas (thousands) 2 Percent 38,125 37,728 38,161 38,769 39,765 38,974 40,251 41,598 42,003 42,791 32,758 32,034 32,879 34,095 35,012 35,746 37,071 38,262 39,444 40,865 34,783 34,045 34,355 34,745 35,012 35,271 36,038 37,102 37,842 38,526 0.0 –1.0 1.1 1.6 2.6 –2.0 3.3 3.3 1.0 1.9 5.0 6.1 6.5 7.2 8.9 6.4 7.3 7.6 6.7 6.7 304,543 307,240 309,794 312,098 314,374 316,598 318,953 321,323 323,668 325,983 42,015 41,882 41,958 42,162 42,556 42,715 42,866 43,027 43,429 43,634 38,807 39,299 39,650 40,018 40,338 40,637 40,944 41,539 41,780 42,314 37,522 37,776 37,950 38,118 38,226 38,435 38,571 38,868 38,858 39,176 2.1 –1.3 .7 2.0 3.8 1.5 1.4 1.5 3.8 1.9 7.5 6.6 6.3 6.4 7.0 6.7 6.7 6.3 7.2 6.8 322,793 323,326 323,962 324,593 325,108 325,640 326,276 326,907 327,423 327,955 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 2016: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2017: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2018: I r �������������� II p ������������� 15,946.5 16,031.6 16,170.6 16,351.8 16,604.4 16,721.2 16,895.1 17,103.1 17,318.9 17,502.6 1,919.9 1,944.2 1,968.7 1,984.3 2,004.9 2,014.2 2,048.5 2,070.9 2,029.9 2,046.3 14,026.7 14,087.4 14,202.0 14,367.5 14,599.6 14,707.0 14,846.6 15,032.2 15,288.9 15,456.4 12,979.1 13,155.8 13,302.2 13,453.6 13,584.7 13,716.7 13,853.3 14,083.3 14,194.8 14,405.3 1,047.6 931.6 899.7 913.9 1,014.9 990.2 993.4 948.9 1,094.1 1,051.1 13,562.3 13,541.5 13,592.9 13,685.4 13,835.3 13,909.8 13,986.2 14,065.9 14,219.6 14,309.8 43,454 43,570 43,838 44,263 44,907 45,163 45,503 45,983 46,695 47,130 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, personal interest payments (nonmortgage), and personal current transfer payments. 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Note: See Note, p.1. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). 6 Real Farm Income According to the preliminary forecast for 2018, gross farm income in chained (2018) dollars is forecast to be $418.7 billion and net farm income to be $59.5 billion. BILLIONS OF CHAINED (2018) DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF CHAINED (2018) DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 560 520 480 440 400 560 520 480 440 400 GROSS FARM INCOME 360 360 320 320 280 280 240 240 200 200 160 160 NET FARM INCOME 120 120 80 80 60 60 40 40 2009 2010 2012 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 2017 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of chained (2018) dollars] Chart 7 - Jun 2018 Income of farm operators from farming 1 Gross farm income Year Value of agricultural sector production Total 1999 ��������������������������������������������������� 2000 ��������������������������������������������������� 2001 ��������������������������������������������������� 2002 ��������������������������������������������������� 2003 ��������������������������������������������������� 2004 ��������������������������������������������������� 2005 ��������������������������������������������������� 2006 ��������������������������������������������������� 2007 ��������������������������������������������������� 2008 ��������������������������������������������������� 2009 ��������������������������������������������������� 2010 ��������������������������������������������������� 2011 ��������������������������������������������������� 2012 ��������������������������������������������������� 2013 ��������������������������������������������������� 2014 ��������������������������������������������������� 2015 ��������������������������������������������������� 2016 ��������������������������������������������������� 2017 ��������������������������������������������������� 2018 p ������������������������������������������������� Crops 2, 3 Total 338.6 340.5 344.3 312.9 344.2 381.8 374.5 353.2 402.5 423.9 388.4 406.4 469.6 493.3 522.2 512.2 461.9 426.7 426.8 418.7 307.6 307.8 313.4 296.0 322.2 365.0 343.9 333.9 388.4 409.7 374.4 392.3 458.0 481.6 510.3 501.9 450.6 413.2 415.3 409.4 133.7 133.8 130.9 132.8 144.5 162.0 143.5 144.5 179.1 202.1 190.0 191.7 222.6 233.5 252.2 218.4 192.9 195.7 186.4 182.7 Animals and animal products 3 137.2 139.6 146.5 126.8 139.7 160.9 158.7 145.2 164.1 162.1 138.0 159.9 182.9 185.5 195.3 227.4 203.6 171.4 180.6 176.1 Farm-related income 4 36.7 34.4 35.9 36.4 38.1 42.1 41.7 44.2 45.2 45.5 46.3 40.8 52.4 62.7 62.8 56.1 54.0 46.1 48.3 50.6 Direct Federal Government payments 31.0 32.7 30.9 16.8 22.0 16.8 30.6 19.2 14.1 14.2 14.1 14.1 11.6 11.7 11.9 10.4 11.3 13.4 11.6 9.3 Production expenses Net farm income 269.9 269.1 268.7 259.7 263.1 268.6 275.7 283.3 319.5 333.2 316.6 318.5 342.7 387.5 388.6 414.2 376.6 363.0 362.0 359.2 68.7 71.4 75.6 53.1 81.1 113.2 98.8 69.9 83.0 90.7 71.8 87.9 126.9 105.8 133.6 98.0 85.3 63.7 64.9 59.5 1 The GDP chain-type price index is used to convert the current-dollar statistics to 2018=100 equivalents. 2 Crop receipts include proceeds received from commodities placed under Commodity Credit Corporation loans. 3 The value of production equates to the sum of cash receipts, home consumption, and the value of the change in inventories. 4 Includes income from forest products sold, the gross imputed rental value of farm dwellings, machine hire and custom work, and other sources of farm income such as commodity insurance indemnities. Source: Department of Agriculture (Economic Research Service). 7 Corporate Profits In the first quarter of 2018, according to revised estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $26.4 billion (annual rate) and profits after tax rose $148.2 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2,600 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2,600 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 2,400 2,400 PROFITS BEFORE TAX 2,200 2,200 2,000 2,000 1,800 1,800 PROFITS AFTER TAX 1,600 1,600 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 UNDISTRIBUTED PROFITS 800 800 600 600 400 400 TAXES ON CORPORATE INCOME 200 200 0 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment 1 Profits after tax Domestic industries Period Total 2 Profits before tax Nonfinancial Total Financial Total 3 Manufacturing Utilities Wholesale Taxes on corporate income Total Retail 2008 r ������������������ 1,344.5 954.3 94.6 859.7 240.0 30.4 92.7 82.2 1,379.3 256.1 1,123.2 2009 r ������������������ 1,470.1 1,121.3 362.7 758.7 164.7 23.4 88.9 107.9 1,467.5 204.2 1,263.3 r 2010 ������������������ 1,786.4 1,400.6 405.8 994.8 281.8 30.6 99.3 115.9 1,834.0 272.5 1,561.5 2011 r ������������������ 1,750.2 1,337.7 378.4 959.3 296.0 10.2 97.2 115.1 1,818.2 281.1 1,537.2 2012 r ������������������ 2,144.7 1,739.3 482.4 1,256.9 403.0 13.8 137.9 155.7 2,156.1 334.9 1,821.2 r 2013 ������������������ 2,165.9 1,767.1 430.7 1,336.3 446.9 28.3 146.4 153.3 2,151.5 362.8 1,788.7 r 2014 ������������������ 2,266.1 1,861.2 483.1 1,378.1 457.4 32.7 150.8 158.6 2,262.5 407.4 1,855.2 2015 r ������������������ 2,187.0 1,784.5 437.6 1,346.9 422.5 20.1 152.1 169.2 2,134.2 397.2 1,737.0 2016 r ������������������ 2,128.7 1,722.2 468.9 1,253.3 322.9 7.2 127.5 173.5 2,129.7 392.9 1,736.9 r 2017 ������������������ 2,136.4 1,687.5 468.7 1,218.9 292.9 3.8 111.8 162.5 2,181.9 350.7 1,831.2 2016: I r �������������� 2,101.2 1,711.7 377.4 1,334.2 395.5 12.6 151.8 169.6 2,037.8 384.4 1,653.4 II r ������������� 2,114.4 1,714.1 472.1 1,241.9 311.1 10.5 120.6 164.9 2,146.8 385.5 1,761.2 r III ������������ 2,132.3 1,741.9 505.5 1,236.4 298.2 1.2 136.8 179.5 2,137.5 413.0 1,724.6 r IV ������������ 2,166.8 1,721.0 520.4 1,200.6 286.6 4.4 100.7 179.9 2,196.7 388.5 1,808.2 2017: I r �������������� 2,148.0 1,714.8 463.3 1,251.5 279.2 5.9 117.4 171.4 2,211.8 348.0 1,863.8 r II ������������� 2,187.3 1,768.0 468.7 1,299.3 306.9 5.3 128.9 170.7 2,200.4 355.8 1,844.6 r III ������������ 2,199.9 1,740.0 489.0 1,251.0 320.8 2.7 114.7 168.7 2,230.7 365.2 1,865.5 IV r ������������ 2,010.3 1,527.3 453.7 1,073.6 264.5 1.4 86.3 139.2 2,084.6 333.8 1,750.8 r 2018: I �������������� 2,036.9 1,550.2 444.5 1,105.8 238.5 –1.1 88.6 155.4 2,111.0 212.0 1,899.0 II p ������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� 1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 2 Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. 3 Includes industries not shown separately. Note: Data by industry are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). See Note, p. 1. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 8 Net dividends Chart 8 - Jul 2018 Inventory Undistrib- valuation adjustment uted profits 840.3 282.9 –34.8 622.1 641.3 2.6 643.2 918.3 –47.6 779.1 758.1 –68.0 948.7 872.6 –11.4 1,009.0 779.7 14.4 1,096.1 759.1 3.6 1,164.9 572.1 52.8 1,187.4 549.4 –1.0 1,215.3 615.9 –45.5 1,180.2 473.2 63.4 1,180.9 580.3 –32.4 1,196.3 528.3 –5.2 1,192.4 615.8 –29.9 1,217.7 646.1 –63.8 1,233.3 611.3 –13.0 1,215.5 650.0 –30.8 1,194.8 556.0 –74.4 1,213.2 685.7 –74.1 p 1,237.8 ��������������� ����������������� Real Gross Private Domestic Investment In the second quarter of 2018, according to advance estimates, nonresidential fixed investment in chained (2012) dollars rose $47.5 billion (annual rate) and residential fixed investment fell $1.6 billion. Inventories fell $27.9 billion, following an increase of $30.3 billion in the first quarter. BILLIONS OF CHAINED (2012) DOLLARS 3,600 BILLIONS OF CHAINED (2012) DOLLARS 3,600 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 3,400 3,400 3,200 3,200 3,000 3,000 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 2,800 2,800 2,600 2,600 2,400 2,400 2,200 2,200 NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT 2,000 2,000 1,800 1,800 1,600 1,600 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT 800 600 800 600 400 400 200 200 0 0 CHANGE IN PRIVATE INVENTORIES –200 –200 –400 –400 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of chained (2012) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Chart 9 - Jul 2018 Fixed investment Period 2008 r ������������������������������������������������� 2009 r ������������������������������������������������� 2010 r ������������������������������������������������� 2011 r ������������������������������������������������� 2012 r ������������������������������������������������� 2013 r ������������������������������������������������� 2014 r ������������������������������������������������� 2015 r ������������������������������������������������� 2016 r ������������������������������������������������� 2017 r ������������������������������������������������� 2016: I r ��������������������������������������������� II r �������������������������������������������� III r ������������������������������������������� IV r ������������������������������������������� 2017: I r ��������������������������������������������� II r �������������������������������������������� III r ������������������������������������������� IV r ������������������������������������������� 2018: I r ��������������������������������������������� II p �������������������������������������������� Gross private domestic investment 2,462.9 1,942.0 2,216.5 2,362.1 2,621.8 2,801.5 2,951.6 3,092.2 3,050.5 3,196.6 3,042.9 3,035.2 3,032.2 3,091.7 3,128.6 3,172.1 3,239.8 3,246.0 3,321.0 3,317.1 Change in private inventories Nonresidential Total 2,499.4 2,099.8 2,164.2 2,317.8 2,550.5 2,692.1 2,861.5 2,958.5 3,009.8 3,155.1 2,979.7 3,000.0 3,023.5 3,036.1 3,108.6 3,141.3 3,161.2 3,209.3 3,271.3 3,314.6 Total 1,994.2 1,704.3 1,781.0 1,935.4 2,118.5 2,206.0 2,357.4 2,399.7 2,411.2 2,538.1 2,380.9 2,403.3 2,430.3 2,430.4 2,486.5 2,530.8 2,552.3 2,582.7 2,654.0 2,701.5 Structures 605.4 492.2 412.8 424.1 479.4 485.5 536.9 520.9 494.7 517.5 484.8 488.8 503.5 501.9 517.3 522.2 514.5 516.2 533.3 550.1 Equipment 824.4 649.7 781.2 886.2 983.4 1,029.2 1,098.7 1,132.6 1,116.2 1,183.7 1,115.1 1,115.5 1,115.8 1,118.2 1,142.8 1,169.5 1,197.1 1,225.6 1,250.9 1,262.7 Intellectual property products 575.3 572.4 588.1 624.8 655.7 691.4 721.1 747.8 803.9 841.1 785.0 803.2 814.0 813.3 829.0 842.3 845.9 847.3 875.7 893.1 Residential 504.6 395.3 383.0 382.5 432.0 485.5 504.2 555.3 591.3 611.1 590.9 589.4 586.9 597.9 613.8 605.2 604.5 620.7 615.3 613.7 Total Nonfarm –32.7 –177.3 57.3 46.7 71.2 108.7 86.6 129.0 23.4 22.5 50.7 17.8 –14.1 39.1 –2.4 11.9 64.4 16.1 30.3 –27.9 –31.5 –165.2 70.2 48.4 89.9 98.2 90.3 127.8 28.4 27.4 59.8 20.2 –11.6 45.2 3.8 16.9 67.8 21.1 35.9 –23.2 Note: See p. 10 for further detail on fixed investment by type. Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2012) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. See Note, p. 1. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 9 Real Private Fixed Investment by Type [Billions of chained (2012) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nonresidential Equipment Total fixed investment Period 2008 r ���������� 2009 r ���������� 2010 r ���������� 2011 r ���������� 2012 r ���������� 2013 r ���������� 2014 r ���������� 2015 r ���������� 2016 r ���������� 2017 r ���������� 2016: I r ������ II r ����� III r ���� IV r ���� 2017: I r ������ II r ����� III r ���� IV r ���� 2018: I r ������ II p ����� Residential Total nonresidential 2,499.4 2,099.8 2,164.2 2,317.8 2,550.5 2,692.1 2,861.5 2,958.5 3,009.8 3,155.1 2,979.7 3,000.0 3,023.5 3,036.1 3,108.6 3,141.3 3,161.2 3,209.3 3,271.3 3,314.6 Intellectual property products Information processing equipment Structures 1,994.2 1,704.3 1,781.0 1,935.4 2,118.5 2,206.0 2,357.4 2,399.7 2,411.2 2,538.1 2,380.9 2,403.3 2,430.3 2,430.4 2,486.5 2,530.8 2,552.3 2,582.7 2,654.0 2,701.5 Total 2 605.4 492.2 412.8 424.1 479.4 485.5 536.9 520.9 494.7 517.5 484.8 488.8 503.5 501.9 517.3 522.2 514.5 516.2 533.3 550.1 Computers and peripheral equipment 1 Total 824.4 649.7 781.2 886.2 983.4 1,029.2 1,098.7 1,132.6 1,116.2 1,183.7 1,115.1 1,115.5 1,115.8 1,118.2 1,142.8 1,169.5 1,197.1 1,225.6 1,250.9 1,262.7 260.6 247.5 289.1 303.2 331.2 351.8 368.6 393.5 410.9 459.8 399.6 405.9 415.1 423.0 439.7 455.2 466.8 477.5 490.5 504.9 ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ Other 180.9 166.5 195.1 209.3 227.7 248.8 266.4 291.0 309.7 348.4 298.8 304.3 315.6 320.3 334.5 342.2 349.7 367.1 371.7 380.2 Industrial Transportation equipequipment ment 208.3 162.7 162.5 194.9 211.2 208.4 216.6 217.0 214.4 228.6 211.8 213.9 214.6 217.5 220.6 227.7 231.6 234.6 238.5 235.2 Total 2 155.0 72.5 141.5 181.8 215.3 238.5 264.4 291.4 274.3 264.2 284.0 279.8 270.5 262.9 262.0 259.0 264.7 270.9 280.3 279.3 Structures Software Research and development 3 206.7 212.9 220.9 245.2 272.1 287.2 305.3 319.9 345.9 379.3 334.4 343.0 349.8 356.2 366.2 377.7 387.9 385.3 402.1 408.6 304.8 297.4 298.5 311.0 313.4 333.8 345.3 352.8 382.0 386.8 374.6 384.8 387.7 380.7 386.7 389.5 384.0 386.8 398.8 409.2 575.3 572.4 588.1 624.8 655.7 691.4 721.1 747.8 803.9 841.1 785.0 803.2 814.0 813.3 829.0 842.3 845.9 847.3 875.7 893.1 Total residential 2 504.6 395.3 383.0 382.5 432.0 485.5 504.2 555.3 591.3 611.1 590.9 589.4 586.9 597.9 613.8 605.2 604.5 620.7 615.3 613.7 Total 2 Single family 495.7 386.9 373.8 372.4 421.5 474.1 491.8 541.9 576.8 595.7 576.7 575.1 572.4 583.2 598.7 590.0 589.2 605.0 599.7 598.2 178.1 105.3 114.3 109.1 132.0 161.8 171.9 191.5 201.1 214.8 204.7 202.1 195.7 202.1 208.5 213.1 216.6 220.9 223.1 220.5 1 Because computers exhibit rapid changes in prices relative to other prices in the economy, the chained-dollar estimates should not be used to measure the component’s relative importance or its contribution to the growth rate of more aggregate series. The quantity index for computers can be used to accurately measure the real growth rate of this series. For information on this component, see Survey of Current Business Table 5.3.1 (for growth rates), Table 5.3.2 (for contributions), and Table 5.3.3 (for quantity indexes). 2 Includes other items, not shown separately. 3 Research and development investment excludes expenditures for software development. Note: Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2012) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. See Note, p. 1. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). Business Investment [Billions of dollars] Capital expenditures By industry Period Total capital expenditures Forestry, Total fishing, by and agri- Mining industry cultural services ConManu- WholeUtilities struction sale facturing trade Retail trade TransportaFinance tion Informaand and tion insurwareance housing ProfesReal sional, estate scienand tific, rental and and technical leasing services Health care and social assistance Other 1 For companies without employees For companies with employees 2002 �������� 2003 �������� 2004 �������� 2005 �������� 2006 �������� 2007 �������� 2008 �������� 2009 �������� 2010 �������� 2011 �������� 2012 �������� 2013 �������� 2014 �������� 2015 �������� 2016 p ������� 997.9 975.0 1,042.1 1,144.8 1,309.9 1,354.7 1,374.2 1,090.7 1,105.7 1,243.0 1,423.6 1,491.3 1,597.9 1,642.0 1,575.7 917.5 886.8 953.2 1,062.5 1,217.1 1,270.5 1,294.5 1,015.3 1,036.2 1,169.6 1,334.4 1,400.9 1,506.6 1,548.1 1,480.3 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.7 2.7 2.1 2.3 2.2 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.0 4.0 3.3 4.6 42.5 50.5 51.3 66.7 99.3 120.7 149.3 100.6 115.7 165.7 196.7 202.2 230.8 174.1 92.7 65.5 54.6 50.4 58.0 69.8 85.4 98.7 103.0 94.5 98.0 125.0 111.3 118.9 130.5 133.8 24.8 23.2 28.6 30.1 30.3 36.7 40.8 19.8 17.9 21.8 23.6 27.6 30.3 33.3 36.0 157.2 149.1 156.7 165.6 192.4 197.3 213.1 155.2 160.8 192.4 203.1 221.3 231.1 245.1 243.6 26.8 26.0 32.3 40.6 36.6 30.8 32.4 25.3 31.1 35.7 40.9 37.5 44.8 42.4 43.9 59.3 65.9 72.2 73.5 86.7 82.5 73.2 58.4 65.3 68.1 77.6 77.5 82.4 86.0 87.0 47.1 44.5 46.1 56.9 68.0 67.4 79.6 55.7 59.0 72.7 81.8 92.6 111.0 116.6 109.7 88.2 80.5 83.5 91.4 104.4 106.1 103.3 88.4 97.2 100.1 106.5 123.9 132.0 132.7 142.2 128.4 120.8 153.6 161.4 163.1 173.4 132.9 99.5 103.1 109.2 130.2 137.8 153.3 164.6 167.1 94.5 88.0 91.6 103.0 132.1 117.5 106.9 72.9 81.3 91.1 115.7 114.2 121.9 151.9 145.3 25.9 24.7 26.7 33.1 30.3 31.8 33.0 28.2 28.2 28.1 31.6 35.7 30.4 33.3 32.4 59.3 61.2 64.6 73.8 75.3 84.2 90.2 79.4 78.4 83.1 88.9 94.2 89.0 93.8 93.6 96.1 96.2 93.6 105.6 126.3 134.8 138.7 127.0 100.6 100.4 110.0 122.1 126.8 140.6 148.6 80.4 88.2 88.9 82.2 92.8 84.2 79.7 75.4 69.5 73.4 89.2 90.4 91.3 93.9 95.4 1 Includes the following industries: Management of companies and enterprises; administrative and support and waste management; educational services; arts, entertainment, and recreation; accommodation and food services; and other services (except public administration). Also includes an item for structure and equipment expenditures serving multiple industry categories. Note: Data from Annual Capital Expenditures. Industry data are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Data shown in this table are capital expenditures for both new and used structures and equipment. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census). 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force In July, unemployment as measured by the household survey fell 284,000 to 6.3 million. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 166 166 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 162 162 158 158 154 154 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE 150 150 146 146 CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT 142 142 138 138 134 134 20 20 16 16 UNEMPLOYMENT 12 12 8 8 4 4 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 *16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Period 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2017: July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� July ���������� Civilian noninsti- Civilian labor tutional force population (NSA) 233,788 235,801 237,830 239,618 243,284 245,679 247,947 250,801 253,538 255,079 255,151 255,357 255,562 255,766 255,949 256,109 256,780 256,934 257,097 257,272 257,454 257,642 257,843 154,287 154,142 153,889 153,617 154,975 155,389 155,922 157,130 159,187 160,320 160,467 160,598 161,082 160,371 160,533 160,597 161,115 161,921 161,763 161,527 161,539 162,140 162,245 Civilian employment Total 145,362 139,877 139,064 139,869 142,469 143,929 146,305 148,834 151,436 153,337 153,511 153,471 154,324 153,846 153,917 154,021 154,430 155,215 155,178 155,181 155,474 155,576 155,965 Men 20 years and over 74,750 71,341 71,230 72,182 73,403 74,176 75,471 76,776 78,084 78,919 78,863 78,887 79,393 79,248 79,324 79,431 79,705 80,213 80,113 80,111 80,329 80,013 80,240 Women 20 years and over 65,039 63,699 63,456 63,360 64,640 65,295 66,287 67,323 68,387 69,344 69,586 69,502 69,692 69,576 69,665 69,614 69,583 69,828 69,916 69,992 70,077 70,419 70,598 Percent 1 Chart 11 - Jul 2018 Unemployment Both sexes 16–19 years 5,573 4,837 4,378 4,327 4,426 4,458 4,548 4,734 4,965 5,074 5,062 5,082 5,238 5,022 4,928 4,977 5,143 5,174 5,149 5,078 5,068 5,144 5,127 Total 8,924 14,265 14,825 13,747 12,506 11,460 9,617 8,296 7,751 6,982 6,956 7,127 6,759 6,524 6,616 6,576 6,684 6,706 6,585 6,346 6,065 6,564 6,280 Men 20 years and over 4,297 7,555 7,763 6,898 5,984 5,568 4,585 3,959 3,675 3,287 3,266 3,410 3,168 3,118 3,050 3,117 3,223 3,096 3,087 3,088 2,905 3,102 2,818 Women 20 years and over Both sexes 16–19 years 3,342 5,157 5,534 5,450 5,125 4,565 3,926 3,371 3,151 2,868 2,912 2,903 2,804 2,611 2,637 2,679 2,627 2,737 2,695 2,506 2,415 2,720 2,687 1,285 1,552 1,528 1,400 1,397 1,327 1,106 966 925 827 778 813 786 796 929 780 834 874 803 752 745 743 775 Not in labor force 79,501 81,659 83,941 86,001 88,310 90,290 92,025 93,671 94,351 94,759 94,684 94,759 94,480 95,395 95,416 95,512 95,665 95,012 95,335 95,745 95,915 95,502 95,598 Labor Employ- Unemployforce ment/ participa- population ment tion rate ratio rate 66.0 65.4 64.7 64.1 63.7 63.2 62.9 62.7 62.8 62.9 62.9 62.9 63.0 62.7 62.7 62.7 62.7 63.0 62.9 62.8 62.7 62.9 62.9 62.2 59.3 58.5 58.4 58.6 58.6 59.0 59.3 59.7 60.1 60.2 60.1 60.4 60.2 60.1 60.1 60.1 60.4 60.4 60.3 60.4 60.4 60.5 5.8 9.3 9.6 8.9 8.1 7.4 6.2 5.3 4.9 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.8 4.0 3.9 1 Civilian labor force (or employment) as percent of civilian noninstitutional population; and unemployment as percent of civilian labor force. Note: Beginning each January, data reflect revised population controls and are not strictly comparable with earlier data. See Employment and Earnings for details on breaks in series. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 11 Selected Unemployment Rates In July, the unemployment rate fell to 3.9 percent. PERCENT (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 30 30 25 25 20 20 TEENAGERS (16-19) 15 15 BLACK OR AFRICAN AMERICAN1 10 10 HISPANIC1,2 MEN 20 YEARS AND OVER 5 5 WHITE1 ALL CIVILIAN WORKERS 2015 2016 WOMEN 20 YEARS AND OVER ASIAN1 0 0 2014 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1 SEE FOOTNOTE 1 TABLE BELOW. HISPANIC OR LATINO ETHNICITY. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 2 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) Chart 12 - Jul 2018 By race or ethnicity 1 By sex and age Period 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2017: July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� July ���������� All civilian workers 5.8 9.3 9.6 8.9 8.1 7.4 6.2 5.3 4.9 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.8 4.0 3.9 Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over 5.4 9.6 9.8 8.7 7.5 7.0 5.7 4.9 4.5 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.4 4.9 7.5 8.0 7.9 7.3 6.5 5.6 4.8 4.4 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.7 3.7 Both sexes 16–19 years 18.7 24.3 25.9 24.4 24.0 22.9 19.6 16.9 15.7 14.0 13.3 13.8 13.0 13.7 15.9 13.6 13.9 14.4 13.5 12.9 12.8 12.6 13.1 White 5.2 8.5 8.7 7.9 7.2 6.5 5.3 4.6 4.3 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 Black or African American 10.1 14.8 16.0 15.8 13.8 13.1 11.3 9.6 8.4 7.5 7.4 7.6 7.0 7.3 7.2 6.8 7.7 6.9 6.9 6.6 5.9 6.5 6.6 By selected groups Hispanic or Latino ethnicity Asian 4.0 7.3 7.5 7.0 5.9 5.2 5.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.8 3.9 3.6 3.0 3.0 2.5 3.0 2.9 3.1 2.8 2.1 3.2 3.1 1 Persons who selected this race group only. Persons whose ethnicity is identified as Hispanic or Latino may be of any race. Note: Data relate to persons age 16 years and over. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 12 7.6 12.1 12.5 11.5 10.3 9.1 7.4 6.6 5.8 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.1 4.8 4.9 4.6 4.5 Married men, spouse present 3.4 6.6 6.8 5.8 4.9 4.3 3.4 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.0 Women who maintain families (NSA) 8.0 11.5 12.3 12.4 11.4 10.2 8.6 7.4 6.8 6.2 6.8 7.2 6.5 5.6 5.5 5.3 6.5 6.2 5.6 5.5 4.7 5.5 5.6 Full-time workers 5.8 10.0 10.4 9.6 8.5 7.7 6.4 5.4 4.9 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.7 4.0 3.8 Part-time workers 5.5 6.0 6.3 6.3 6.1 5.9 5.4 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.5 5.0 4.5 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs In June, the percentages of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks, for 5 to 14 weeks, and for 27 weeks and over fell, while the percentage for 15 to 26 weeks rose. The mean duration of unemployment rose to 23.2 weeks and the median duration rose to 9.5 weeks. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 70 DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT 60 60 50 50 40 40 REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT JOB LOSERS LESS THAN 5 WEEKS 27 WEEKS AND OVER REENTRANTS 30 30 5-14 WEEKS 20 20 JOB LEAVERS 15-26 WEEKS 10 10 NEW ENTRANTS 0 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 2017 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Chart 13 - Jul 2018 Duration of unemployment Period Unemployment (thousands) Percent distribution Less than 5 weeks 5–14 weeks 15–26 weeks Reason for unemployment: percent distribution Number of weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) 1 Median Job losers Job leavers Reentrants New entrants State programs Insured unemployment (NSA) Initial claims (NSA) Insured unemployment, all programs (NSA) 2 Weekly average, thousands 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2017: July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� July ���������� 8,924 14,265 14,825 13,747 12,506 11,460 9,617 8,296 7,751 6,982 6,956 7,127 6,759 6,524 6,616 6,576 6,684 6,706 6,585 6,346 6,065 6,564 6,280 32.8 22.2 18.7 19.5 21.1 22.5 25.7 28.9 30.5 32.5 30.9 31.6 32.7 32.4 33.8 33.7 34.4 37.2 35.2 32.7 33.1 34.7 33.1 31.4 26.8 22.0 21.8 22.9 24.1 25.3 27.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 28.4 27.6 29.6 28.4 30.1 29.3 28.3 30.9 31.2 31.7 29.3 28.8 16.0 19.5 16.0 15.0 14.9 15.8 15.6 15.3 14.9 14.6 14.8 15.2 14.2 13.0 13.8 13.3 14.8 13.8 13.5 16.0 15.9 13.0 15.4 19.7 31.5 43.3 43.8 41.1 37.6 33.5 28.1 25.9 24.2 25.4 24.7 25.5 25.0 23.9 22.9 21.5 20.7 20.3 20.0 19.4 23.0 22.7 17.9 24.4 33.0 39.3 39.4 36.5 33.7 29.2 27.5 25.0 25.0 24.3 26.6 25.8 25.2 23.6 24.1 22.9 24.1 23.1 21.3 21.2 23.2 9.4 15.1 21.4 21.4 19.3 17.0 14.0 11.6 10.6 10.0 10.4 10.3 10.1 9.8 9.5 9.1 9.4 9.3 9.1 9.8 9.2 8.9 9.5 53.7 64.2 62.4 59.0 55.0 53.0 50.7 49.0 48.2 49.2 48.7 49.4 48.9 48.9 47.6 49.7 49.6 48.9 47.7 46.2 46.3 46.9 48.3 10.0 6.2 6.0 7.0 7.7 8.1 8.6 9.9 11.1 11.1 11.0 11.2 10.9 11.1 11.2 10.9 10.9 11.6 13.1 12.7 13.8 12.4 13.5 27.7 22.3 23.4 24.7 26.7 28.0 29.4 30.6 30.1 29.8 30.2 30.2 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.6 29.7 29.0 29.8 31.4 30.6 31.9 28.8 8.6 3,306 424 3,899 7.3 5,724 568 9,123 8.2 4,487 454 9,732 9.3 3,679 406 7,630 10.5 3,297 374 6,048 10.9 2,947 342 4,605 11.3 2,574 304 2,657 10.6 2,237 275 2,272 10.6 2,099 259 2,127 9.9 1,948 240 1,971 10.1 2,233 254 2,257 9.2 1,969 231 1,991 9.8 1,678 221 1,698 9.5 1,864 242 1,889 10.5 1,768 279 1,793 8.9 2,152 328 2,181 9.8 2,620 350 2,648 10.5 2,243 217 2,266 9.5 2,135 213 2,158 9.7 2,135 223 2,157 9.3 1,685 220 1,703 8.8 ��������������� ��������������� ����������������� 9.5 ��������������� ��������������� ����������������� 1 Beginning January 2011, includes unemployment durations of up to 5 years; prior data are for up to 2 years. 2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands), Federal (UCFE), ex-service members (UCX), and Federal and State extended benefit programs. Emergency Unemployment Compensation (2008-2013) and Federal Additional Compensation (2009-2010). Also includes Note: Data relate to persons age 16 years and over (except for insured unemployment and initial claims). Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 Nonagricultural Employment Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 157,000 in July. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 150 108 106 ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS PRIVATE SERVICE-PROVIDING INDUSTRIES 104 145 102 100 140 98 135 96 94 130 24 22 PRIVATE INDUSTRIES 125 EDUCATION AND HEALTH SERVICES PROFESSIONAL AND BUSINESS SERVICES 20 18 RETAIL TRADE 16 120 14 22 115 GOODS-PRODUCING 20 110 18 16 105 14 24 GOVERNMENT MANUFACTURING 12 22 20 10 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 2017 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thousands of wage and salary workers; 1 monthly data seasonally adjusted] Chart 14 - Jul 2018 Private industries Period 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2017: July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May r �������� June r ������� July p �������� Total nonagricultural employment 137,241 131,313 130,362 131,932 134,175 136,381 138,958 141,843 144,352 146,624 146,728 146,949 146,963 147,234 147,450 147,625 147,801 148,125 148,280 148,455 148,723 148,971 149,128 Goods-producing industries Total private 114,732 108,758 107,871 109,845 112,255 114,529 117,076 119,814 122,128 124,303 124,402 124,610 124,626 124,903 125,120 125,294 125,482 125,803 125,956 126,130 126,390 126,624 126,794 Total 2 Construc- Manufaction turing 21,335 18,558 17,751 18,047 18,420 18,738 19,226 19,610 19,750 20,077 20,040 20,115 20,130 20,168 20,246 20,328 20,383 20,490 20,516 20,568 20,624 20,676 20,728 7,162 6,016 5,518 5,533 5,646 5,856 6,151 6,461 6,728 6,955 6,934 6,962 6,971 6,988 7,030 7,072 7,100 7,167 7,164 7,180 7,210 7,223 7,242 13,406 11,847 11,528 11,726 11,927 12,020 12,185 12,336 12,354 12,444 12,424 12,463 12,469 12,489 12,519 12,558 12,578 12,609 12,630 12,658 12,681 12,714 12,751 Private service-providing industries Trade, transportation, and utilities Total Total 3 93,398 90,201 90,121 91,798 93,835 95,791 97,850 100,204 102,379 104,226 104,362 104,495 104,496 104,735 104,874 104,966 105,099 105,313 105,440 105,562 105,766 105,948 106,066 26,293 24,905 24,636 25,065 25,476 25,862 26,383 26,887 27,257 27,494 27,470 27,490 27,525 27,553 27,602 27,593 27,627 27,695 27,736 27,727 27,779 27,786 27,801 Retail trade 15,283 14,522 14,440 14,668 14,841 15,079 15,357 15,605 15,825 15,869 15,848 15,852 15,853 15,860 15,887 15,861 15,873 15,919 15,930 15,928 15,957 15,937 15,944 Information Financial activities 2,984 2,804 2,707 2,674 2,676 2,706 2,726 2,750 2,794 2,795 2,793 2,792 2,784 2,784 2,780 2,776 2,760 2,759 2,765 2,768 2,771 2,772 2,772 8,206 7,838 7,695 7,697 7,784 7,886 7,977 8,123 8,287 8,455 8,462 8,477 8,485 8,494 8,503 8,511 8,514 8,543 8,548 8,551 8,563 8,573 8,568 Profes- Education Leisure sional and and and health hospitalbusiness services ity services 17,735 16,579 16,728 17,332 17,932 18,515 19,062 19,633 20,052 20,467 20,501 20,543 20,570 20,630 20,646 20,677 20,715 20,776 20,817 20,876 20,925 20,968 21,019 19,228 19,630 19,975 20,318 20,769 21,086 21,439 22,029 22,639 23,186 23,235 23,283 23,297 23,312 23,350 23,380 23,430 23,462 23,491 23,529 23,571 23,640 23,662 13,436 13,077 13,049 13,353 13,768 14,254 14,696 15,160 15,660 16,052 16,117 16,121 16,046 16,156 16,176 16,207 16,228 16,246 16,248 16,262 16,297 16,331 16,371 Other services 5,515 5,367 5,331 5,360 5,430 5,483 5,567 5,622 5,691 5,776 5,784 5,789 5,789 5,806 5,817 5,822 5,825 5,832 5,835 5,849 5,860 5,878 5,873 Government 22,509 22,555 22,490 22,086 21,920 21,853 21,882 22,029 22,224 22,322 22,326 22,339 22,337 22,331 22,330 22,331 22,319 22,322 22,324 22,325 22,333 22,347 22,334 1 Data from the establishment survey. Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who received pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, unpaid family workers, and private household workers. Data from the household survey shown on p. 11 include those workers and also count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off. In the series shown here, persons who work at more than one job are counted each time they appear on a payroll, in contrast to the series shown on p. 11 where persons are counted only once—as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force. See Employment and Earnings for details. 2 Includes mining and logging, not shown separately. 3 Includes wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, and utilities, not shown separately. Note: Data classified by industry based on the 2017 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). For details see Employment and Earnings. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 14 Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings— Private Nonagricultural Industries [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Average weekly hours Total private nonagricultural 1 Period 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2017: June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May r �������� June r ������� July p �������� Average gross hourly earnings Total private nonagricultural 1 Manufacturing Total 33.6 33.1 33.4 33.6 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.6 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.6 33.6 33.7 33.7 33.8 33.6 33.8 33.7 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.8 Overtime 40.8 39.8 41.1 41.4 41.7 41.8 42.0 41.8 41.9 41.9 42.0 42.0 42.0 41.8 42.0 41.9 41.8 41.9 42.3 42.2 42.3 42.0 42.1 42.1 3.7 2.9 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.6 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.4 Current dollars Manufacturing 1982-84 dollars 2 $18.06 $8.56 18.61 8.88 19.05 8.90 19.44 8.77 19.74 8.73 20.13 8.78 20.61 8.85 21.03 9.07 21.54 9.20 22.05 9.22 22.02 9.26 22.06 9.27 22.11 9.25 22.20 9.23 22.18 9.22 22.23 9.20 22.31 9.22 22.34 9.17 22.39 9.18 22.46 9.23 22.52 9.23 22.58 9.23 22.62 9.24 22.65 ����������������� Average gross weekly earnings Total private nonagricultural 1 Current dollars $17.75 18.24 18.61 18.93 19.08 19.30 19.56 19.91 20.44 20.89 20.85 20.88 20.93 20.99 21.05 21.12 21.21 21.27 21.32 21.36 21.44 21.40 21.45 21.44 Percent change from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural Current dollars 1982-84 dollars 2 $607.42 $287.80 615.96 293.83 636.19 297.33 652.89 294.66 665.65 294.24 677.70 295.52 694.85 298.51 708.90 305.81 723.31 309.01 742.56 310.63 742.07 312.06 743.42 312.44 742.90 310.71 745.92 310.27 747.47 310.77 749.15 310.15 754.08 311.59 750.62 308.24 756.78 310.43 756.90 310.99 761.18 311.94 763.20 312.04 764.56 312.15 765.57 ����������������� Manufacturing Construction $724.46 726.12 765.18 784.29 794.63 807.37 822.03 832.08 855.77 875.71 875.70 876.96 879.06 877.38 884.10 884.93 886.58 891.21 901.84 901.39 906.91 898.80 903.05 902.62 $842.61 851.76 891.83 921.84 942.14 958.72 977.11 998.02 1,031.88 1,061.66 1,054.55 1,058.90 1,062.86 1,068.13 1,061.76 1,068.80 1,084.80 1,075.93 1,096.40 1,094.40 1,105.10 1,108.65 1,099.64 1,113.14 Retail trade Current dollars $386.21 388.57 400.05 412.09 422.10 423.07 431.82 445.55 447.49 462.86 461.76 462.36 461.73 464.48 465.41 469.68 471.81 471.50 469.35 476.98 478.74 483.36 483.43 484.04 1982-84 dollars 2 3.1 –1.0 1.4 2.1 3.3 1.2 2.6 –.9 2.0 –.1 1.8 .4 2.5 1.0 2.0 2.4 2.0 1.0 2.7 .5 2.6 1.1 2.5 .9 2.6 .7 2.6 .3 2.5 .5 2.7 .3 3.0 .8 2.4 .2 3.1 .7 2.9 .5 2.9 .4 3.3 .4 3.0 .0 3.0 ������������������� 1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. 2 Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI–W) (on a 1982-84=100 base). Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). Employment Cost Index—Private Industry Index (December 2005 = 100) Period Total compensation Wages and salaries Percent change from 3 months earlier Benefits 1 Total compensation 12 months earlier Wages and salaries Benefits 1 Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits 1 Not seasonally adjusted 2008: 2009: 2010: 2011: 2012: 2013: 2014: 2015: 2016: 2017: Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ 108.9 110.2 112.5 115.0 117.1 119.4 122.2 124.5 127.2 130.5 109.4 110.8 112.8 114.6 116.6 119.0 121.6 124.2 127.1 130.6 107.7 108.7 111.9 115.9 118.2 120.5 123.5 125.1 127.3 130.2 ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� Seasonally adjusted 2016: Mar ����������������������������������������� June ���������������������������������������� Sept ���������������������������������������� Dec ������������������������������������������ 2017: Mar ����������������������������������������� June ���������������������������������������� Sept ���������������������������������������� Dec ������������������������������������������ 2018: Mar ����������������������������������������� June ���������������������������������������� 125.4 126.1 126.7 127.3 128.3 129.0 130.0 130.6 131.9 132.7 125.1 126.0 126.6 127.2 128.3 129.0 130.0 130.7 132.0 132.8 125.9 126.3 127.0 127.5 128.3 129.1 130.0 130.5 131.6 132.7 2.4 1.2 2.1 2.2 1.8 2.0 2.3 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.6 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.8 2.0 0.9 2.9 3.6 2.0 1.9 2.5 1.3 1.8 2.3 Not seasonally adjusted 0.6 .6 .5 .5 .8 .5 .8 .5 1.0 .6 0.6 .7 .5 .5 .9 .5 .8 .5 1.0 .6 0.5 .3 .6 .4 .6 .6 .7 .4 .8 .8 1.8 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.0 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.8 1 Employer costs for employee benefits. Note: The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries. Data exclude farm and household workers. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 15 Productivity and Related Data, Business and Nonfarm Business Sectors Labor productivity (output per hour) Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Hours of all persons 2 Output 1 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Compensation per hour 3 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real compensation per hour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit labor costs Implicit price deflator 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 102.2 100.0 98.6 100.7 102.7 103.4 105.3 107.1 108.2 108.8 106.0 104.7 104.4 106.1 106.3 106.9 106.7 108.6 107.8 108.8 108.9 107.3 108.7 108.4 108.6 109.3 110.2 102.1 100.0 98.7 100.7 102.5 103.3 105.3 107.2 108.4 108.8 105.9 104.7 104.4 106.1 106.3 106.9 106.9 108.7 108.0 109.1 109.1 107.5 108.7 108.4 108.7 109.4 110.2 99.8 100.0 101.1 103.3 105.3 106.9 108.6 109.3 110.4 112.1 107.9 108.5 109.0 108.9 108.7 109.3 109.6 109.5 109.7 110.2 110.5 111.2 111.6 111.7 112.3 112.9 113.4 99.4 100.0 101.0 102.8 104.7 106.3 108.2 109.1 110.5 112.1 107.5 108.0 108.6 108.6 108.6 109.1 109.4 109.5 109.7 110.3 110.7 111.3 111.5 111.7 112.3 113.0 113.4 1.8 –2.2 –1.4 2.1 2.0 .6 1.9 1.7 1.0 .5 10.9 –4.6 –1.3 6.8 .6 2.3 –.4 7.2 –2.8 3.7 .1 –5.5 5.1 –1.0 .9 2.6 3.1 2.0 –2.0 –1.3 2.1 1.7 .9 1.9 1.8 1.1 .4 10.6 –4.7 –1.2 7.1 .6 2.3 –.2 7.2 –2.6 3.9 .0 –5.7 4.8 –1.2 1.0 2.5 2.9 1.5 .2 1.1 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.6 .6 1.0 1.6 1.4 2.5 1.6 –.1 –.7 2.0 1.1 –.2 .5 2.1 1.1 2.2 1.5 .6 1.9 2.4 1.5 1.5 .6 1.0 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.8 .9 1.2 1.5 1.2 2.1 2.1 .0 .0 1.9 1.2 .1 .9 2.2 1.3 2.3 .9 .6 2.0 2.4 1.5 Indexes, 2009=100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2014: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2015: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2016: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2017: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2018: I * ������������� 96.9 100.0 103.3 103.3 104.0 104.8 105.6 106.8 106.9 108.2 104.9 105.5 106.4 105.8 106.5 106.9 107.3 106.6 106.3 106.5 107.2 107.7 107.5 107.9 108.8 108.7 108.9 97.0 100.0 103.3 103.4 104.3 104.7 105.7 107.0 107.0 108.4 104.8 105.4 106.5 106.0 106.8 107.1 107.4 106.7 106.4 106.7 107.3 107.6 107.7 108.1 108.8 108.9 109.1 104.2 100.0 103.2 105.3 108.4 110.8 114.4 118.4 120.3 123.6 112.1 113.7 115.5 116.3 117.4 118.4 118.8 118.9 119.0 119.8 120.8 121.4 121.8 123.0 124.1 125.3 126.1 104.4 100.0 103.2 105.5 108.8 110.9 114.6 118.5 120.2 123.7 112.2 113.8 115.7 116.4 117.6 118.5 118.9 119.0 119.0 119.8 120.8 121.4 122.0 123.1 124.3 125.5 126.3 107.6 100.0 99.9 102.0 104.2 105.8 108.3 110.8 112.5 114.1 106.9 107.8 108.6 109.9 110.2 110.7 110.7 111.6 112.0 112.5 112.7 112.7 113.3 113.9 114.1 115.2 115.8 107.7 100.0 99.9 102.0 104.2 106.0 108.4 110.7 112.4 114.1 107.1 108.0 108.7 109.8 110.1 110.6 110.7 111.5 111.9 112.3 112.5 112.8 113.3 113.9 114.2 115.2 115.8 99.0 100.0 101.8 104.0 106.8 108.3 111.2 114.4 115.7 117.7 111.1 110.4 111.0 112.3 113.2 114.3 114.6 115.7 114.6 115.9 116.7 115.6 116.8 117.0 118.2 118.8 120.0 99.0 100.0 101.9 104.2 106.9 108.2 111.3 114.7 116.0 118.0 111.0 110.4 111.2 112.5 113.5 114.5 114.8 116.0 114.9 116.3 117.0 115.7 117.1 117.3 118.3 119.1 120.1 98.7 100.0 100.2 99.2 99.8 99.7 100.6 103.4 103.2 102.8 101.0 99.9 100.2 101.5 103.0 103.3 103.1 104.1 103.2 103.6 103.8 102.2 102.5 102.6 103.1 102.8 102.9 98.6 100.0 100.3 99.3 99.8 99.5 100.7 103.6 103.5 103.0 100.9 99.8 100.3 101.7 103.3 103.5 103.4 104.4 103.4 104.0 104.1 102.2 102.7 102.9 103.2 103.1 103.1 Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2014: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2015: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2016: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2017: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2018: I * ������������� 0.9 3.3 3.3 .0 .7 .7 .8 1.1 .1 1.2 –3.1 2.3 3.5 –2.2 2.7 1.6 1.5 –2.9 –1.0 .8 2.6 1.9 –.7 1.6 3.2 –.4 .7 0.8 3.1 3.3 .1 .9 .3 1.0 1.2 .0 1.3 –3.2 2.5 4.2 –2.1 3.0 1.3 1.2 –2.7 –1.1 1.0 2.4 1.2 .2 1.7 2.6 .3 .4 –1.2 –4.1 3.2 2.1 2.9 2.2 3.2 3.5 1.6 2.7 –1.7 5.8 6.8 2.5 4.0 3.3 1.6 .2 .4 2.6 3.3 2.2 1.4 3.7 3.9 3.6 2.6 –1.3 –4.3 3.2 2.2 3.1 2.0 3.3 3.4 1.5 2.9 –1.4 5.8 6.9 2.3 4.0 3.3 1.3 .3 .2 2.5 3.3 2.2 1.8 3.9 4.0 3.7 2.7 –2.0 –7.1 –.1 2.1 2.2 1.5 2.4 2.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 3.4 3.1 4.8 1.3 1.6 .1 3.2 1.4 1.8 .7 .3 2.0 2.1 .7 4.1 1.8 –2.1 –7.2 –.1 2.1 2.2 1.7 2.3 2.2 1.5 1.6 1.9 3.2 2.6 4.5 .9 2.0 .1 3.0 1.3 1.5 .9 1.0 1.5 2.2 1.3 3.3 2.3 2.7 1.0 1.8 2.1 2.7 1.3 2.7 2.9 1.1 1.7 7.4 –2.4 2.2 4.5 3.3 3.9 1.1 4.1 –3.7 4.5 2.8 –3.7 4.4 .6 4.2 2.1 3.9 2.8 1.0 1.9 2.2 2.6 1.2 2.9 3.1 1.1 1.7 7.0 –2.3 3.0 4.9 3.7 3.6 1.0 4.3 –3.7 4.9 2.5 –4.6 5.0 .5 3.6 2.9 3.3 –1.1 1.3 .2 –1.0 .6 –.1 1.0 2.7 –.2 –.4 4.6 –4.4 1.1 5.4 6.0 1.2 –.5 3.9 –3.6 1.7 .9 –6.3 1.4 .5 2.0 –1.2 .4 –1.0 1.4 .3 –.9 .5 –.3 1.1 2.9 –.2 –.5 4.3 –4.3 1.8 5.7 6.3 .9 –.6 4.1 –3.6 2.1 .6 –7.1 2.0 .4 1.5 –.4 –.2 1 Output refers to real gross domestic product originating in the sector. 2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers’ contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed. 4 Hourly compensation divided by consumer price series. The trend for 1978-2017 is based on the consumer price index research series (CPI-U-RS). The change for recent quarters is based on the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U). 5 Current dollar gross domestic output divided by the output index. Note: Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. * Data based on GDP data released on May 30, 2018. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production and capacity utilization rose in June. INDEX, 2012 = 100* (RATIO SCALE) 120 INDEX, 2012 = 100* (RATIO SCALE) 130 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FINAL PRODUCTS 110 120 100 110 90 CONSUMER GOODS BUSINESS EQUIPMENT 80 100 120 MANUFACTURING DURABLE TOTAL1 110 90 100 DEFENSE AND SPACE EQUIPMENT NONDURABLE 90 80 80 140 PERCENT* 86 CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE (TOTAL INDUSTRY) 84 UTILITIES AND MINING 130 82 120 80 MINING 78 110 76 100 74 72 UTILITIES 90 70 68 66 80 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1 SEE FOOTNOTE 1 TABLE BELOW *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Total industrial production 1 Period 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2017: June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2018: Jan r ��������� Feb r ��������� Mar r �������� Apr r ��������� May r �������� June p ������� Percent change 2 Index, 2012=100 100.8 89.2 94.1 97.1 100.0 102.0 105.2 104.1 102.1 103.7 103.8 103.6 103.2 103.2 104.8 105.3 105.8 105.4 105.9 106.4 107.6 107.1 107.7 From preceding month ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� 0.1 –.1 –.4 .0 1.5 .5 .5 –.3 .4 .5 1.1 –.5 .6 Chart 17 - Jul 2018 Industry production indexes, 2012=100 Capacity utilization rate (output as percent of capacity) 1 Manufacturing From year earlier –3.5 –11.5 5.5 3.1 3.0 2.0 3.1 –1.0 –1.9 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.1 1.2 2.7 3.4 2.9 2.8 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.2 3.8 Total 1 103.8 89.5 94.7 97.5 100.0 100.9 102.0 101.5 100.7 101.9 101.9 101.7 101.4 101.3 102.6 102.9 102.8 102.3 103.7 103.6 104.2 103.1 103.9 Durable 99.2 80.6 89.2 94.7 100.0 102.1 105.1 103.9 101.7 103.3 103.1 102.3 102.6 103.5 103.9 104.2 104.3 104.0 105.6 105.9 106.4 104.7 106.3 Nondurable 105.8 97.7 99.8 99.9 100.0 100.0 99.3 99.6 100.4 101.8 102.2 102.5 101.7 100.4 102.8 103.1 103.1 102.2 103.5 102.9 103.5 103.1 103.2 Other (non-NAICS) 1 143.9 120.3 111.2 106.0 100.0 95.0 93.8 90.4 88.0 81.9 81.8 80.4 79.9 80.4 81.7 79.9 78.3 78.2 79.7 79.4 80.1 79.0 78.4 Mining 88.0 83.1 87.2 92.6 100.0 106.3 117.8 113.8 102.7 109.3 109.5 109.3 108.7 110.1 111.6 113.9 115.1 113.9 117.1 118.6 119.5 122.2 123.7 Utilities 101.9 99.0 102.8 102.4 100.0 102.2 103.5 102.7 102.3 101.0 101.2 102.1 100.6 99.8 103.0 103.3 106.6 108.8 98.4 102.6 108.5 107.8 106.2 Total industry Total manufacturing 77.8 68.5 73.6 76.2 77.2 77.6 79.0 77.3 75.3 76.1 76.2 76.1 75.7 75.7 76.8 77.1 77.3 77.0 77.2 77.5 78.2 77.7 78.0 74.6 65.5 70.7 73.6 74.9 75.0 75.8 75.8 74.6 74.8 74.8 74.6 74.4 74.2 75.2 75.3 75.2 74.7 75.7 75.5 75.8 75.0 75.5 1 Total industry and total manufacturing series include manufacturing as defined in the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) plus those industries—logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory-publishing—that have traditionally been included in manufacturing. 2 Percent changes based on unrounded indexes. Note: Data based on NAICS except series as defined in footnote 1. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 Industrial Production— Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures [2012=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Products and nonindustrial supplies Materials Final products Consumer goods Period Total 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2017: June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2018: Jan r ��������� Feb r ��������� Mar r �������� Apr r ��������� May r �������� June p ������� Nonindustrial supplies Total 103.8 93.0 96.0 98.2 100.0 100.3 101.3 100.8 99.1 100.3 100.4 100.1 100.1 100.3 101.3 101.2 101.5 101.7 101.7 102.1 103.7 101.9 103.0 107.2 99.2 100.3 101.4 100.0 100.7 101.5 103.0 103.6 103.7 103.5 103.4 103.4 103.5 104.7 104.6 105.2 105.5 105.2 105.7 107.4 105.4 106.1 Durable goods 106.6 85.9 94.2 97.7 100.0 105.5 110.6 115.0 117.5 117.6 117.4 115.7 116.2 117.5 118.0 117.8 118.4 117.7 121.0 122.1 121.0 115.8 120.2 Equipment Nondurable goods 107.2 102.9 101.9 102.3 100.0 99.5 99.2 99.9 100.1 100.1 100.0 100.2 100.2 100.0 101.4 101.2 101.8 102.4 101.2 101.6 104.0 102.7 102.6 Total 1 97.3 81.5 87.8 92.2 100.0 99.6 101.0 96.6 90.2 93.8 94.5 93.8 93.8 94.3 94.6 94.6 94.4 94.5 95.0 95.3 96.6 95.2 97.1 Business 96.7 80.0 86.1 91.1 100.0 99.9 101.7 99.6 94.4 97.4 97.6 97.1 97.2 98.2 98.8 98.8 98.5 98.5 98.6 98.7 99.8 97.7 99.8 Defense and space Total 98.0 93.8 100.9 98.0 100.0 97.1 93.9 91.7 89.1 89.3 90.0 89.5 89.2 88.2 87.6 87.7 87.5 87.8 88.7 89.3 91.1 90.7 91.6 110.3 93.5 96.6 98.0 100.0 102.2 103.9 103.2 103.8 105.1 104.8 104.8 104.3 104.8 105.5 106.0 106.6 105.8 106.6 106.6 107.3 107.2 106.9 Construction 117.4 90.3 93.6 95.8 100.0 103.1 106.4 107.0 108.0 110.8 110.1 109.9 109.2 111.0 111.5 111.9 112.9 111.2 114.6 113.4 114.0 114.3 113.6 Business 107.2 95.0 98.0 99.0 100.0 101.8 102.8 101.4 101.8 102.3 102.3 102.4 102.0 101.7 102.6 103.1 103.5 103.1 102.6 103.2 104.0 103.6 103.6 Total 1 95.6 84.9 91.9 95.9 100.0 103.4 108.5 106.9 103.7 105.9 106.0 105.9 105.1 104.7 107.2 108.3 108.9 108.2 108.9 109.7 110.7 111.2 111.7 Energy 89.3 86.7 90.6 94.1 100.0 105.1 114.0 112.6 106.0 109.3 109.1 109.7 108.9 109.9 111.8 113.3 115.2 115.2 114.7 116.5 117.7 120.5 121.0 1 Includes other items, not shown separately. [2012=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Durable manufactures Computer and electronic products Primary metals Period Total 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2017: June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2018: Jan r ��������� Feb r ��������� Mar r �������� Apr r ��������� May r �������� June p ������� 104.1 77.5 95.0 102.0 100.0 103.3 104.0 96.8 92.5 93.9 92.9 92.3 93.7 94.8 94.7 96.2 94.8 94.8 96.4 97.4 96.6 96.4 96.4 Iron and steel products 109.2 70.3 91.8 100.1 100.0 102.1 101.3 91.6 87.3 91.7 90.0 88.8 91.7 92.3 91.8 95.8 93.5 92.2 95.3 97.7 95.4 95.1 94.3 Fabricated metal products 110.7 85.2 90.7 97.1 100.0 101.8 103.6 100.2 96.5 97.6 96.8 97.0 97.4 98.2 98.8 99.2 99.3 99.9 101.8 101.9 101.9 101.4 102.4 Nondurable manufactures Machinery Total 94.5 73.5 82.1 92.5 100.0 95.4 96.7 89.0 82.2 87.5 87.8 87.3 86.4 89.0 89.5 90.1 91.0 90.0 89.6 88.8 90.9 89.6 90.2 84.8 75.6 85.6 92.6 100.0 103.2 107.4 108.1 110.4 113.9 113.4 113.2 113.6 113.6 115.0 115.8 115.9 116.6 117.2 117.7 119.3 118.9 120.6 Selected high-technology 1 75.4 66.6 80.9 91.1 100.0 110.7 122.7 126.7 133.9 139.1 138.9 137.2 137.8 139.0 141.4 143.0 145.0 144.6 143.8 144.8 147.3 147.3 149.3 Transportation equipment Total 91.0 74.6 86.5 90.4 100.0 105.1 111.9 115.0 112.2 111.7 112.3 109.6 110.9 111.0 111.1 110.9 111.1 110.6 113.2 115.2 114.6 109.0 114.2 1 Computers and peripheral equipment, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 Motor vehicles and parts 85.1 62.3 82.7 90.4 100.0 107.2 117.1 123.2 124.8 123.7 123.5 118.8 121.5 123.1 124.2 123.8 124.6 124.1 129.0 132.6 129.9 118.8 128.0 Apparel 157.2 112.7 109.5 102.9 100.0 92.6 88.8 84.3 79.2 71.0 69.9 69.9 69.6 68.6 68.3 68.2 69.4 69.7 70.6 70.3 71.7 70.9 68.7 Printing and related support activities 123.7 103.6 103.5 101.8 100.0 100.3 98.5 97.5 99.2 98.9 98.9 98.7 98.8 97.6 97.5 97.6 98.7 98.2 98.8 96.5 97.7 98.2 98.4 Chemicals 108.6 98.1 101.3 101.4 100.0 96.6 95.6 95.2 94.7 95.6 96.4 97.2 94.7 92.2 97.6 98.1 97.5 95.9 96.9 97.2 97.7 97.9 98.3 Food 100.6 99.9 100.4 100.2 100.0 102.0 102.9 104.4 106.6 111.0 110.4 111.4 112.3 112.7 112.5 112.2 112.9 112.8 115.7 113.7 115.1 114.3 114.2 New Construction [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Private Period 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2017: June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar r �������� Apr r ��������� May r �������� June p ������� Total new construction expenditures 1,077.4 906.5 809.3 788.3 850.5 906.4 1,005.6 1,113.6 1,191.8 1,246.0 1,241.3 1,242.8 1,237.5 1,240.4 1,247.5 1,257.3 1,272.6 1,276.3 1,305.5 1,293.1 1,314.7 1,332.2 1,317.2 Residential Total New housing Total 1 768.6 591.6 505.3 501.9 571.1 635.7 729.5 823.3 899.3 962.8 957.7 961.6 959.5 962.0 961.6 971.0 983.1 985.9 1,013.3 997.9 1,015.3 1,023.9 1,019.8 Federal and State and local Nonresidential 359.2 247.5 242.0 244.1 269.8 323.4 369.8 422.1 467.2 524.9 522.1 524.9 527.5 529.4 529.5 538.2 543.7 541.8 560.2 546.6 563.4 570.9 568.3 Total 230.1 133.9 127.3 123.2 154.5 202.3 235.2 273.7 303.6 330.1 327.9 329.1 332.5 334.1 336.0 340.0 343.4 343.0 348.5 344.8 346.6 350.2 347.3 Lodging 409.4 344.1 263.3 257.8 301.4 312.3 359.7 401.2 432.2 437.8 435.6 436.8 432.0 432.6 432.1 432.8 439.4 444.1 453.1 451.3 451.9 453.0 451.5 Commercial (including farm) Office 35.4 25.4 11.2 8.4 10.2 13.0 16.3 21.3 26.5 28.0 28.0 28.2 27.9 27.8 28.0 27.7 29.0 28.9 30.1 30.3 31.0 30.7 30.7 55.5 37.3 24.4 23.7 27.4 30.1 38.9 47.4 59.6 58.6 57.7 58.9 56.4 56.7 57.1 59.1 60.2 61.4 62.8 62.3 62.1 63.0 63.1 Manufacturing 82.7 51.1 37.2 39.2 44.3 50.9 60.9 63.4 75.0 84.6 86.8 86.3 85.2 84.0 84.2 84.9 86.1 85.8 89.6 89.3 88.3 89.5 87.5 Other 2 53.6 57.4 40.6 39.8 46.8 49.9 58.1 79.3 75.7 65.8 63.4 64.9 64.1 64.9 64.8 64.3 64.0 63.8 64.5 63.3 61.3 59.5 60.2 182.3 173.0 149.9 146.7 172.6 168.3 185.5 189.7 195.3 200.9 199.7 198.5 198.4 199.2 198.0 196.7 200.1 204.2 206.2 206.2 209.3 210.3 209.9 New houses sold New houses for sale at end of period 3 308.7 314.9 304.0 286.4 279.3 270.7 276.1 290.3 292.5 283.2 283.6 281.2 277.9 278.4 285.9 286.3 289.5 290.3 292.2 295.2 299.4 308.3 297.4 1 Includes residential improvements, not shown separately. 2 Includes health care, educational, communication, and power, among other categories not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census). New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates [Thousands of units or houses, except as noted] New housing units authorized 2 New housing units started Type of structure Period Total 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 905.5 554.0 586.9 608.8 780.6 924.9 1,003.3 1,111.8 1,173.8 1,203.0 1 unit 622.0 445.1 471.2 430.6 535.3 617.6 647.9 714.5 781.5 848.9 Type of structure 2–4 units 1 17.5 11.6 11.4 10.9 11.4 13.6 13.7 11.5 11.5 11.4 5 units or more Total 266.0 97.3 104.3 167.3 233.9 293.7 341.7 385.8 380.8 342.7 905.4 583.0 604.6 624.1 829.7 990.8 1,052.1 1,182.6 1,206.6 1,282.0 1 unit 575.6 441.1 447.3 418.5 518.7 620.8 640.3 696.0 750.8 820.0 2–4 units 5 units or more New housing units completed Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 4 34.4 20.7 22.0 21.6 25.9 29.0 29.9 32.1 34.8 37.2 295.4 121.1 135.3 184.0 285.1 341.1 382.0 454.5 421.1 424.8 1,119.7 794.4 651.7 584.9 649.2 764.4 883.8 968.2 1,059.7 1,152.9 485 375 323 306 368 429 437 501 561 613 353 234 190 151 150 186 210 232 255 294 10.0 10.6 10.2 9.5 8.7 8.3 7.6 7.1 6.9 7.2 37 42 36 36 35 41 38 45 46 40 41 34 36 462 399 461 387 454 418 405 451 391 486 460 424 403 1,234 1,197 1,091 1,086 1,188 1,144 1,197 1,218 1,289 1,229 1,257 1,261 1,261 616 556 558 637 618 712 636 633 663 672 641 666 631 273 276 281 280 286 289 294 295 300 297 298 296 301 7.3 �������������������� �������������������� 7.5 �������������������� �������������������� 6.9 �������������������� �������������������� 7.0 �������������������� �������������������� 6.8 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 2017: June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar r �������� Apr r ��������� May r �������� June p ������� 1,225 1,185 1,172 1,158 1,265 1,303 1,210 1,334 1,290 1,327 1,276 1,337 1,173 860 839 878 831 888 948 847 886 900 882 898 944 858 ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� 359 335 286 310 359 347 359 435 372 431 357 381 304 1,312 1,258 1,300 1,254 1,343 1,323 1,320 1,366 1,323 1,377 1,364 1,301 1,292 813 817 803 831 854 864 877 870 886 851 863 843 853 1 Monthly data do not meet publication standards because tests for identifiable and stable seasonality do not meet reliability standards. 2 Based on approximately 20,100 permit-issuing places beginning with 2014 and 19,300 beginning with 2004. Using the 2004 universe, the total for 2014 is 1,046.4. 3 Seasonally adjusted. 4 Quarterly data are three-month averages. Annual data are averages of quarterly data. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census). 19 Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade In May, according to current estimates, manufacturing and trade sales rose 1.5 percent. In June, according to preliminary estimates, manufacturing and trade inventories rose $1.0 billion, retail sales rose 0.3 percent, and retail inventories rose $0.3 billion. Retail and food services sales rose 0.5 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,000 MANUFACTURING AND 1,900 TRADE INVENTORIES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 650 1,800 550 1,700 500 1,600 450 1,500 400 RETAIL INVENTORIES 600 RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES SALES RETAIL SALES 1,400 350 1,300 300 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE SALES 1,200 RATIO* 1.70 INVENTORY/SALES RATIO 1.60 1,100 RETAIL 1.50 1.40 1,000 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE 1.30 1.20 900 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 2017 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars, except ratios; seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Manufacturing and trade 1 Period Sales 2 2008 �������������������� 1,160,722 2009 �������������������� 988,802 2010 �������������������� 1,088,890 2011 �������������������� 1,206,660 2012 �������������������� 1,267,248 2013 �������������������� 1,303,229 2014 �������������������� 1,340,932 2015 �������������������� 1,294,787 2016 �������������������� 1,286,409 2017 �������������������� 1,356,014 2017: May r �������� 1,335,203 r June ������� 1,342,124 July ���������� 1,345,879 Aug ���������� 1,356,857 Sept ��������� 1,376,155 Oct ����������� 1,384,976 Nov ���������� 1,402,872 Dec ����������� 1,410,433 2018: Jan ����������� 1,406,327 Feb ����������� 1,411,971 Mar ���������� 1,420,071 Apr r ��������� 1,429,298 May r �������� 1,450,054 p June ������� ����������������������� Inventories 3 Inventory/sales ratio 4 Wholesale Sales 2 1,465,186 1.31 377,030 1,330,869 1.38 319,115 1,449,499 1.27 361,447 1,564,021 1.26 407,090 1,652,863 1.28 434,002 1,717,465 1.29 447,546 1,776,773 1.31 463,682 1,806,740 1.39 441,036 1,839,188 1.42 435,490 1,903,551 1.41 466,127 1,854,654 1.39 455,105 1,863,603 1.39 460,392 1,867,489 1.39 460,949 1,882,131 1.39 468,712 1,885,097 1.37 474,339 1,884,919 1.36 477,273 1,893,380 1.35 484,150 1,903,551 1.35 489,855 1,915,012 1.36 483,516 1,925,817 1.36 487,805 1,923,669 1.35 489,608 1,929,393 1.35 496,410 1,936,288 1.34 508,990 1,937,322 ����������������������� ����������������������� Inventories 3 Retail Inventory/sales ratio 4 445,307 1.20 397,383 1.29 441,618 1.15 487,289 1.15 523,034 1.17 543,932 1.19 575,944 1.22 583,576 1.33 596,276 1.35 617,837 1.29 598,107 1.31 602,022 1.31 604,314 1.31 610,633 1.30 612,917 1.29 609,845 1.28 614,681 1.27 617,837 1.26 623,030 1.29 627,913 1.29 629,230 1.29 629,865 1.27 632,450 1.24 632,541 ����������������������� 1 See page 21 for manufacturing. 2 Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. 3 Seasonally adjusted, end of period. 4 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census). 20 Sales 2 327,943 301,039 318,171 341,913 358,519 371,538 386,620 393,833 404,695 422,811 417,639 419,290 420,726 420,685 429,566 432,104 435,519 435,599 434,632 434,859 437,764 439,586 444,614 446,164 Inventories 3 477,183 429,188 454,548 470,803 505,652 543,640 560,686 587,892 612,018 626,525 621,140 624,820 623,437 628,833 623,233 623,873 624,844 626,525 630,503 634,194 629,727 632,396 635,231 635,511 Chart 20 - Jul 2018 Retail and food Inventory/sales services sales 2 ratio 4 1.52 1.47 1.39 1.35 1.38 1.41 1.43 1.46 1.49 1.47 1.49 1.49 1.48 1.49 1.45 1.44 1.43 1.44 1.45 1.46 1.44 1.44 1.43 1.42 365,965 338,706 357,081 383,192 402,199 416,814 434,638 445,791 459,575 479,196 473,752 475,415 477,064 477,190 486,157 488,866 492,633 492,643 492,034 492,530 496,077 497,776 504,340 506,787 Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders In June, manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and new and unfilled orders rose. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 620 580 SHIPMENTS 540 500 460 420 TOTAL 380 340 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 740 INVENTORIES 700 660 620 580 TOTAL 540 500 460 DURABLE GOODS 420 300 380 340 DURABLE GOODS 260 300 220 260 NONDURABLE GOODS 180 220 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 620 580 NEW ORDERS 540 500 460 420 380 NONDURABLE GOODS 180 RATIO* 1.60 INVENTORY/SHIPMENTS RATIO 1.50 TOTAL 340 1.40 300 1.30 DURABLE GOODS 260 220 1.20 1.10 180 2014 2016 2015 2017 2018 2015 2014 2016 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 2017 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturers’ shipments 1 Manufacturers’ inventories 2 Manufacturers’ new orders 1 Chart 21- Jul 2018 Durable goods Period Total Durable goods 2018 Nondurable goods Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, nondefense Manufacturers’ unfilled orders 2 Manufacturers’ inventory/ shipments ratio 3 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2017: June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May r �������� June p ������� 455,750 368,648 409,273 457,658 474,727 484,145 490,630 459,918 446,225 467,076 462,442 464,204 467,460 472,250 475,599 483,203 484,979 488,179 489,307 492,699 493,302 496,450 501,383 218,056 171,402 190,059 206,591 218,965 224,651 233,077 231,002 226,090 234,463 233,602 233,388 235,364 237,689 238,278 241,765 242,511 243,238 245,051 247,016 247,002 247,423 251,138 237,694 197,246 219,214 251,067 255,762 259,495 257,553 228,916 220,135 232,614 228,840 230,816 232,096 234,561 237,321 241,438 242,468 244,941 244,256 245,683 246,300 249,027 250,245 542,696 504,298 553,333 605,929 624,177 629,893 640,143 635,272 630,894 659,189 636,761 639,738 642,665 648,947 651,201 653,855 659,189 661,479 663,710 664,712 667,132 668,607 669,270 329,976 294,777 321,512 352,636 367,385 370,629 387,823 391,149 379,310 396,779 385,170 387,308 388,805 393,121 393,829 394,356 396,779 397,703 399,816 400,538 402,026 403,402 402,947 212,720 209,521 231,821 253,293 256,792 259,264 252,320 244,123 251,584 262,410 251,591 252,430 253,860 255,826 257,372 259,499 262,410 263,776 263,894 264,174 265,106 265,205 266,323 454,344 350,478 407,992 459,305 475,809 485,611 493,833 453,290 441,061 464,953 472,844 456,800 464,236 477,569 470,338 479,664 488,343 480,449 490,295 498,443 496,409 498,401 501,718 216,650 153,232 188,778 208,238 220,047 226,116 236,280 224,374 220,926 232,339 244,004 225,984 232,140 243,008 233,017 238,226 245,875 235,508 246,039 252,760 250,109 249,374 251,473 73,286 48,926 62,309 71,753 77,674 80,844 81,410 71,502 67,510 73,549 85,144 69,266 71,692 78,598 73,524 75,005 77,573 74,861 77,475 84,205 78,584 76,796 78,289 994,329 825,987 871,363 954,604 1,014,692 1,076,059 1,160,491 1,128,598 1,114,849 1,136,974 1,124,570 1,120,886 1,121,433 1,130,737 1,129,307 1,129,709 1,136,974 1,133,139 1,138,190 1,147,769 1,154,664 1,160,743 1,165,167 1.26 1.39 1.28 1.29 1.30 1.30 1.31 1.39 1.41 1.37 1.38 1.38 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.35 1.36 1.35 1.36 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.33 1 Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. Shipments are the same as sales. 2 Seasonally adjusted, end of period. 3 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. Note: Manufacturers’ nondurable new orders (not shown) are the same as nondurable shipments. Also, there are no unfilled nondurable orders; data shown for total unfilled orders are durable unfilled orders. Total and durable shipments and inventories include data on semiconductors; new and unfilled orders do not. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census). 21 PRICES Producer Prices The producer price index for final demand rose 0.3 percent in June. Prices for final demand goods rose 0.1 percent and prices for final demand services rose 0.4 percent. INDEX, NOV. 2009=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, NOV. 2009=100 (RATIO SCALE) 125 125 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED FINAL DEMAND 120 120 FINAL DEMAND GOODS 115 115 FINAL DEMAND 110 110 FINAL DEMAND SERVICES 105 105 100 100 95 95 2012 2013 2014 2016 2015 2017 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [November 2009=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Final demand goods Period Total final demand 1 Total Foods 2 Energy Final demand services Less food and energy Total Trade 3 Transportation and warehousing Other Rel. imp. 4 ����������� 100.0 33.022 5.723 5.577 21.722 65.333 20.290 4.485 40.558 2008 �������������������� ��������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ��������������� ������������� 2009 �������������������� ��������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ��������������� ������������� 2010 �������������������� 101.8 102.8 103.7 107.2 101.4 101.3 101.7 103.2 100.9 2011 �������������������� 105.7 109.9 112.5 126.2 104.9 103.4 104.0 110.0 102.5 2012 �������������������� 107.7 111.7 115.9 126.3 106.8 105.4 106.7 114.2 103.9 2013 �������������������� 109.1 112.6 117.8 125.3 107.9 107.1 108.2 115.3 105.8 2014 �������������������� 110.9 114.0 121.6 124.2 109.5 109.0 110.2 117.7 107.5 2015 �������������������� 109.9 109.1 118.4 98.6 109.9 110.0 111.6 115.3 108.7 2016 �������������������� 110.4 107.6 115.1 90.4 110.7 111.5 113.1 113.5 110.6 2017 �������������������� 113.0 111.2 116.5 99.8 113.2 113.5 114.8 115.9 112.8 2017: June ��������� 112.7 110.5 117.2 96.2 113.0 113.5 114.6 115.5 112.8 July ���������� 112.8 110.5 117.2 95.9 113.1 113.6 114.8 115.0 113.0 Aug ���������� 113.1 111.1 116.4 98.9 113.3 113.8 115.4 115.2 113.0 Sept ��������� 113.4 111.8 116.3 101.8 113.5 114.0 115.2 116.7 113.1 Oct ����������� 113.9 112.1 116.6 102.0 113.8 114.6 116.2 117.5 113.5 Nov ���������� 114.3 113.0 116.8 105.6 114.1 114.7 115.8 118.6 113.7 Dec ����������� 114.3 113.1 116.6 105.8 114.2 114.5 115.3 117.9 113.9 2018: Jan ����������� 114.9 113.8 116.7 108.9 114.5 115.1 115.8 117.7 114.5 Feb r ��������� 115.1 113.9 116.0 109.0 114.8 115.3 115.9 118.9 114.8 Mar ���������� 115.4 114.1 118.6 106.7 115.1 115.7 116.1 119.7 115.2 Apr ����������� 115.5 114.1 117.3 106.8 115.4 115.8 116.3 120.4 115.1 May ���������� 116.1 115.2 117.4 111.7 115.7 116.1 117.3 121.3 115.1 June ��������� 116.4 115.3 116.1 112.6 116.0 116.6 118.1 121.9 115.4 Processed goods Final for intermediate demand demand (1982=100) less foods, energy, Less and food trade Total and (Aug. 2013 energy =100) 2 68.410 ���������������� ���������������� ���������������� ���������������� ���������������� ���������������� 101.5 102.1 103.3 105.4 105.4 105.5 105.6 105.8 106.2 106.4 106.5 107.0 107.3 107.7 107.8 107.9 108.2 100.0 188.3 172.5 183.4 199.9 200.7 200.8 201.9 188.0 182.2 190.7 189.8 189.7 190.7 191.9 193.1 194.6 195.1 196.7 197.9 197.3 198.3 201.2 202.7 72.576 180.9 173.4 180.8 192.0 192.6 193.8 195.2 189.4 186.9 193.3 193.0 192.9 193.6 194.2 195.0 195.9 196.2 197.2 198.2 198.9 199.4 201.0 202.4 Unprocessed goods Chart 22 - Jul 2018 for intermediate demand (1982=100) Services for intermediNonfood ate materials demand Total less energy 100.0 251.8 175.2 212.2 249.4 241.4 246.7 249.3 189.1 173.4 190.8 188.6 189.1 187.7 188.6 189.5 194.4 197.0 200.8 204.2 195.0 196.8 201.8 199.8 21.809 100.0 324.4 ����������������� 248.4 ����������������� 329.1 101.1 390.4 103.2 369.6 105.3 351.2 107.2 345.7 108.9 296.0 110.2 288.0 112.1 324.1 115.0 322.2 115.0 324.8 115.1 329.1 115.3 333.8 115.5 325.2 116.2 324.6 116.4 330.5 116.6 342.1 117.0 342.0 117.3 346.2 117.6 348.6 118.0 348.4 118.3 347.7 118.4 1 Includes final demand construction, not shown separately. 2 Does not include food and beverages for immediate consumption, which are defined as the service of preparing meals, snacks, and beverages to customer order for immediate consumption. 3 Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers. 4 Relative importance, December 2017. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 22 Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers In June, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.1 percent; it rose 0.2 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index rose 2.9 percent from its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1982-84 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1982-84 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) 260 260 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 250 250 CONSUMER PRICES—ALL ITEMS 240 240 230 230 220 220 210 210 200 200 190 190 180 180 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1982–84=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] All items Period Rel. imp. 4 ����������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2017: June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� Not seasonally Seasonally adjusted adjusted (NSA) 100.0 215.303 214.537 218.056 224.939 229.594 232.957 236.736 237.017 240.007 245.120 244.955 244.786 245.519 246.819 246.663 246.669 246.524 247.867 248.991 249.554 250.546 251.588 251.989 ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� 244.032 244.236 245.262 246.392 246.583 247.411 247.910 249.245 249.619 249.462 250.013 250.535 250.857 All items less food and energy Total 1 78.706 215.572 219.235 221.337 225.008 229.755 233.806 237.897 242.247 247.602 252.169 251.690 252.050 252.610 252.943 253.484 253.791 254.398 255.287 255.751 256.200 256.450 256.889 257.305 Shelter 32.707 246.666 249.354 248.396 251.646 257.083 263.056 270.513 278.803 288.230 297.803 297.259 297.801 299.027 299.760 300.686 301.374 302.336 303.090 303.669 304.747 305.809 306.845 307.272 Medical care 2 8.624 364.065 375.613 388.436 400.258 414.924 425.134 435.292 446.752 463.675 475.322 474.649 476.317 476.941 476.825 477.719 477.956 479.477 481.457 480.949 482.852 483.271 484.253 486.300 Apparel 3.147 118.907 120.078 119.503 122.111 126.265 127.411 127.514 125.903 126.045 125.612 125.450 125.432 125.452 125.530 125.331 124.216 123.829 125.891 127.729 126.929 127.273 127.273 126.171 Food New vehicles 3.724 134.194 135.623 138.005 141.883 144.232 145.783 146.275 147.135 147.358 146.992 147.041 146.509 146.438 145.997 145.648 145.982 146.775 146.660 145.938 145.988 145.269 145.759 146.342 Energy Total 1 At home Away from home 13.212 214.106 217.955 219.625 227.842 233.777 237.037 242.725 247.235 247.931 250.065 249.990 250.387 250.563 250.825 251.022 251.092 251.578 252.070 252.061 252.388 253.056 253.122 253.567 7.255 214.125 215.124 215.836 226.201 231.774 233.869 239.456 242.250 239.065 238.589 238.859 239.239 238.960 238.850 238.976 238.769 239.143 239.325 238.837 239.188 239.867 239.328 239.737 5.957 215.769 223.272 226.114 231.401 237.986 243.068 248.981 256.101 262.695 268.826 268.225 268.649 269.522 270.353 270.658 271.152 271.811 272.772 273.435 273.733 274.393 275.307 275.808 Total 1, 2 8.082 236.666 193.126 211.449 243.909 246.080 244.409 243.583 202.895 189.535 204.540 196.462 195.041 201.552 211.097 208.236 214.879 214.503 220.903 221.104 215.022 218.050 220.006 219.372 Chart 23 - Jul 2018 Gasoline 4.408 277.457 201.555 238.594 301.694 311.470 302.577 290.889 212.007 187.602 211.770 194.172 191.291 205.413 225.964 218.698 231.723 229.924 242.971 240.801 229.021 235.973 240.041 241.332 C-CPI-U (Dec. 1999=100, NSA) 3 ������������������� 124.433 123.850 125.615 129.453 131.976 ������������������� ������������������� ������������������� ������������������� ������������������� 138.989 138.823 139.267 140.118 139.949 139.954 139.805 140.540 141.159 141.484 142.015 142.560 142.770 1 Includes other items not shown separately. 2 Commodities and services. 3 Chained consumer price index (C-CPI-U) reflects the effect of substitution that consumers make across item categories in response to changes in relative prices. 4 Relative importance, May 2018. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 23 Changes in Producer Prices [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Processed goods Unprocessed goods Change from year earlier Final for intermediate for intermediate (NSA) demand demand demand Services less for foods, intermeTransporLess Nonfood energy, diate tation food Total Final Final materials and demand Trade and Other Total and Total final demand demand less trade wareenergy demand goods services energy housing Final demand goods Period Total final demand 1 Total Foods Energy Final demand services Less food and energy Total Change, December to December, NSA 2008 �������������������� ����������� ���������� ���������� ���������� ����������� ���������� ���������� ������������� ���������� ����������� 2009 �������������������� ����������� ���������� ���������� ���������� ����������� ���������� ���������� ������������� ���������� ����������� 2010 �������������������� 2.8 4.7 5.3 12.7 2.4 1.7 2.1 4.3 1.3 ����������� 2011 �������������������� 3.2 4.7 5.7 9.2 3.1 2.3 2.3 6.7 1.8 ����������� 2012 �������������������� 1.9 1.4 4.1 –1.3 1.4 2.2 3.8 2.7 1.4 ����������� 2013 �������������������� 1.2 .8 –.8 .9 1.3 1.3 –.4 2.0 2.0 ����������� 2014 �������������������� .9 –1.2 4.4 –13.2 1.1 2.1 4.0 .8 1.4 1.3 2015 �������������������� –1.1 –3.8 –5.2 –16.4 –.1 .2 .0 –3.5 .8 .3 2016 �������������������� 1.7 1.9 –1.6 6.3 1.7 1.6 1.0 1.1 2.0 1.8 2017 �������������������� 2.5 3.5 2.0 10.1 2.2 2.1 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.3 –2.3 2.9 6.4 5.7 .4 .1 –2.6 –6.6 1.8 5.0 2.9 –.1 4.7 3.8 .6 .7 –.1 –3.8 1.6 3.6 –24.6 13.3 16.1 6.6 1.4 –1.9 –8.7 –25.3 13.0 5.0 0.2 –.1 .5 .6 .6 .8 .3 .8 .6 –.3 .5 1.5 .7 0.1 –.1 .4 .3 .4 .5 .2 .5 .5 .4 .3 .8 .7 0.0 .3 –.7 .5 .5 2.6 1.3 1.9 1.7 –4.5 .9 2.5 –1.0 –24.1 �������������� ����������� ����������� ������������ 28.9 �������������� ����������� ����������� ������������ 27.6 1.4 ����������� ����������� ������������ 2.4 2.0 3.8 6.9 2.1 –1.6 2.9 1.9 1.6 1.9 –5.6 1.0 1.3 .8 1.6 –5.3 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.8 –18.5 .5 –.9 –4.3 .9 13.7 2.6 .5 –1.4 1.4 8.5 2.9 2.4 3.3 1.8 Change, month to month 2017: June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2018: Jan ����������� Feb r ��������� Mar r �������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� 0.1 .1 .3 .3 .4 .4 .0 .5 .2 .3 .1 .5 .3 0.0 .0 .5 .6 .3 .8 .1 .6 .1 .2 .0 1.0 .1 0.3 .0 –.7 –.1 .3 .2 –.2 .1 –.6 2.2 –1.1 .1 –1.1 –0.1 –.3 3.1 2.9 .2 3.5 .2 2.9 .1 –2.1 .1 4.6 .8 0.1 .1 .2 .2 .3 .3 .1 .3 .3 .3 .3 .3 .3 0.1 .1 .2 .2 .5 .1 –.2 .5 .2 .3 .1 .3 .4 –0.3 .2 .5 –.2 .9 –.3 –.4 .4 .1 .2 .2 .9 .7 0.2 –.4 .2 1.3 .7 .9 –.6 –.2 1.0 .7 .6 .7 .5 0.2 .2 .0 .1 .4 .2 .2 .5 .3 .3 –.1 .0 .3 0.2 .1 .1 .2 .4 .2 .1 .5 .3 .4 .1 .1 .3 0.6 .8 1.3 1.4 –2.6 –.2 1.8 3.5 .0 1.2 .7 –.1 –.2 0.3 .1 .2 .2 .6 .2 .2 .3 .3 .3 .3 .3 .1 1.9 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.5 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.6 3.1 3.4 2.2 2.3 3.1 3.4 3.2 4.2 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.2 2.9 4.4 4.3 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.7 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.8 1 Includes final demand construction, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] All items less food and energy Period All items 1 Total 1 Shelter Medical care 2 Apparel Food New vehicles Total 1 At home Addendum: All items, percent change (annual rate) Energy Away from home Total 1, 2 Gasoline C-CPI-U (NSA) 3 From previous quarter 4 From 3 months earlier From 6 months earlier From year earlier (NSA) Change, December to December, NSA 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 0.1 2.7 1.5 3.0 1.7 1.5 .8 .7 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.8 .8 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.6 2.1 2.2 1.8 1.9 .3 .4 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.9 3.2 3.6 3.2 2.6 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.2 2.0 3.0 2.6 4.1 1.8 –1.0 1.9 –1.1 4.6 1.8 .6 –2.0 –.9 –.1 –1.6 2017: June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� 0.0 .1 .4 .5 .1 .3 .2 .5 .2 –.1 .2 .2 .1 0.1 .1 .2 .1 .2 .1 .2 .3 .2 .2 .1 .2 .2 0.3 .2 .4 .2 .3 .2 .3 .2 .2 .4 .3 .3 .1 0.4 .4 .1 .0 .2 .0 .3 .4 –.1 .4 .1 .2 .4 0.0 .0 .0 .1 –.2 –.9 –.3 1.7 1.5 –.6 .3 .0 –.9 –3.2 4.9 –.2 3.2 1.6 .4 .5 .2 .3 –.5 5.9 –.5 1.5 4.7 1.8 1.1 3.4 .8 –.2 1.6 6.6 –2.4 1.7 6.0 1.3 .4 3.7 –.4 –2.0 .9 5.0 1.9 1.3 2.9 2.5 2.1 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.5 –21.3 18.2 7.7 6.6 .5 .5 –10.6 –12.6 5.4 6.9 –43.1 53.5 13.8 9.9 1.7 –1.0 –21.0 –19.7 9.1 10.7 0.2 2.5 1.3 2.9 1.5 1.3 .5 .4 1.8 1.9 ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� �������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� 3.8 –.4 1.6 3.2 2.1 1.5 1.6 .1 1.3 2.1 –0.1 .2 –.1 .0 .1 –.1 .2 .1 –.2 .1 .3 –.2 .2 0.0 .2 .3 .3 .1 .2 .2 .4 .2 .1 .2 .3 .2 –0.9 –.7 3.3 4.7 –1.4 3.2 –.2 3.0 .1 –2.8 1.4 .9 –.3 –1.5 –1.5 7.4 10.0 –3.2 6.0 –.8 5.7 –.9 –4.9 3.0 1.7 .5 0.0 –.1 .3 .6 –.1 .0 –.1 .5 .4 .2 .4 .4 .1 0.1 ������������� ������������� 2.1 ������������� ������������� 3.3 ������������� ������������� 3.5 ������������� ������������� 1.7 0.5 .2 2.2 3.9 3.9 3.6 2.5 4.4 3.6 2.5 1.2 1.5 2.3 1.0 .2 1.0 2.2 2.1 2.9 3.2 4.1 3.6 2.5 2.8 2.5 2.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.8 2.9 Change, month to month –0.3 –.4 .0 –.3 –.2 .2 .5 –.1 –.5 .0 –.5 .3 .4 0.0 .2 .1 .1 .1 .0 .2 .2 .0 .1 .3 .0 .2 1 Includes other items not shown separately. 2 Commodities and services. 3 Chained consumer price index (C-CPI-U) reflects the effect of substitution that consumers make across item categories in response to changes in relative prices. 4 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 24 Prices Received and Paid by Farmers In June, prices received by farmers rose 0.1 percent and prices paid by farmers fell 0.2 percent. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) INDEX, 2011=100 (RATIO SCALE) 130 INDEX, 2011=100 (RATIO SCALE) 130 120 120 PRICES PAID 110 110 100 100 PRICES RECEIVED 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 RATIO1 RATIO1 140 140 RATIO 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 2010 2012 2011 2013 2014 2016 2015 2018 2017 1 RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [2011=100; not seasonally adjusted] Prices received by farmers 1 Period 2008 ��������������������������������������������������� 2009 ��������������������������������������������������� 2010 ��������������������������������������������������� 2011 ��������������������������������������������������� 2012 ��������������������������������������������������� 2013 ��������������������������������������������������� 2014 ��������������������������������������������������� 2015 ��������������������������������������������������� 2016 r ������������������������������������������������� 2017 r ������������������������������������������������� 2017: June r �������������������������������������� July r ��������������������������������������� Aug r ���������������������������������������� Sept r ��������������������������������������� Oct r ����������������������������������������� Nov r ���������������������������������������� Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2018: Jan r ���������������������������������������� Feb r ���������������������������������������� Mar r ��������������������������������������� Apr r ���������������������������������������� May r ��������������������������������������� June p �������������������������������������� Agricultural production 91.7 80.6 86.8 100.0 105.0 107.0 107.9 99.2 90.5 93.6 98.3 95.6 94.2 92.5 87.8 91.5 92.0 86.1 91.1 95.0 92.8 95.0 95.1 Crop production 95.9 85.7 87.0 100.0 107.0 105.7 92.3 87.0 86.2 86.8 87.3 87.0 89.0 90.0 82.7 81.9 84.4 78.5 86.8 87.7 88.2 89.7 90.3 Chart 25 - Jul 2018 Prices paid by farmers Livestock production 86.1 73.8 85.7 100.0 102.5 108.5 128.7 113.4 94.4 99.9 107.2 103.9 98.5 94.8 94.3 101.8 99.6 94.5 94.2 99.8 95.8 98.3 98.5 All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates (PPITW) 2 90.0 87.3 90.0 100.0 104.4 106.3 112.0 110.7 105.9 106.6 106.7 106.5 105.7 106.1 106.8 107.1 107.1 108.0 108.8 109.0 108.6 109.0 108.8 Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates (PITW) 89.5 86.4 89.0 100.0 104.8 106.7 113.1 111.6 105.8 106.2 106.4 106.2 105.2 105.6 106.4 106.7 106.7 107.7 108.5 108.7 108.1 108.6 108.2 Production items 88.3 84.8 87.7 100.0 105.4 107.4 114.1 112.0 104.7 104.5 104.7 104.5 103.4 103.8 104.6 105.0 105.0 105.2 106.1 106.3 106.0 106.5 106.1 Ratio of prices received by farmers to PPITW 102 92 96 100 100 100 96 90 85 87 92 90 89 88 82 85 86 80 83 87 85 87 87 1 Annual indexes for 2011 forward reflect revised methodology. See Agricultural Price Program Update, January 2015 for details. 2 Includes items not shown separately. Note: These indexes are also available on a 1910-14=100 basis, as required by statute. Source: Department of Agriculture (National Agricultural Statistics Service). 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock and Debt Measures In June, M2 rose. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 14,800 14,000 13,200 12,400 11,600 14,800 14,000 13,200 12,400 11,600 10,800 10,000 10,800 10,000 M2 9,200 9,200 8,400 8,400 7,600 7,600 6,800 6,800 6,000 6,000 5,200 5,200 4,400 4,400 3,600 3,600 M1 3,200 3,200 2,800 2,800 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 *AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures, except debt end-of-period basis; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period 2008: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2009: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2010: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2011: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2012: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2013: Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2014: Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2015: Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2016: Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2017: Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2017: June r �������������������������������������� July r ��������������������������������������� Aug r ���������������������������������������� Sept r ��������������������������������������� Oct r ����������������������������������������� Nov r ���������������������������������������� Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2018: Jan r ���������������������������������������� Feb r ���������������������������������������� Mar r ��������������������������������������� Apr r ���������������������������������������� May r ��������������������������������������� June p �������������������������������������� M1 M2 Debt Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers checks, and other checkable deposits M1 plus savings deposits, retail MMMF balances, and small time deposits 1 Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors 2 1,603.5 1,694.1 1,837.5 2,164.6 2,461.1 2,664.1 2,940.1 3,094.5 3,341.6 3,598.7 3,503.9 3,530.6 3,563.7 3,564.0 3,591.6 3,606.5 3,598.7 3,647.2 3,614.4 3,664.8 3,660.9 3,653.9 3,657.8 8,181.3 8,483.7 8,789.3 9,651.1 10,445.9 11,015.9 11,671.0 12,337.5 13,210.4 13,836.5 13,543.6 13,615.3 13,665.5 13,708.6 13,755.9 13,785.7 13,836.5 13,844.4 13,870.5 13,935.0 13,958.3 14,027.6 14,113.0 35,159.7 36,119.4 37,446.7 38,658.8 40,348.5 41,768.8 43,420.5 45,137.2 47,145.5 48,956.7 47,893.4 ��������������������������������������������� ��������������������������������������������� 48,609.7 ��������������������������������������������� ��������������������������������������������� 48,956.7 ��������������������������������������������� ��������������������������������������������� 49,831.1 ��������������������������������������������� ��������������������������������������������� ��������������������������������������������� Percent change From previous period 4 From year or 6 months earlier 3 M1 M2 16.6 5.7 8.5 17.8 13.7 8.2 10.4 5.3 8.0 7.7 9.7 7.8 10.1 7.0 8.6 5.9 5.4 6.6 2.8 5.7 3.9 2.6 3.3 Chart 26 - Jul 2018 Debt 9.7 3.7 3.6 9.8 8.2 5.5 5.9 5.7 7.1 4.7 5.0 5.1 5.2 4.7 4.6 4.1 4.3 3.4 3.0 3.3 2.9 3.5 4.0 5.8 3.6 4.4 3.7 4.6 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.5 3.8 4.1 ������������������������������� ������������������������������� 6.0 ������������������������������� ������������������������������� 2.9 ������������������������������� ������������������������������� 7.2 ������������������������������� ������������������������������� ������������������������������� 1 Money market mutual fund (MMMF). Savings deposits include money market deposit accounts (MMDA). 2 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. Quarterly data shown in last month of quarter. End-of-year data are for fourth quarter. 3 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a simple annual rate. 4 Debt growth of domestic nonfinancial sectors is the seasonally adjusted borrowing flow divided by the seasonally adjusted level of debt outstanding in the previous period. Annual changes are from fourth quarter to fourth quarter; quarterly changes are from previous quarter at an annual rate. Note: See p. 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 26 Components of Money Stock [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period 2008: Dec ����������� 2009: Dec ����������� 2010: Dec ����������� 2011: Dec ����������� 2012: Dec r ��������� 2013: Dec r ��������� 2014: Dec r ��������� 2015: Dec r ��������� 2016: Dec r ��������� 2017: Dec r ��������� 2017: June r ������� July r �������� Aug r ��������� Sept r �������� Oct r ���������� Nov r ��������� Dec r ��������� 2018: Jan r ��������� Feb r ��������� Mar r �������� Apr r ��������� May r �������� June p ������� Currency 816.2 863.7 918.8 1,001.6 1,090.7 1,160.7 1,253.3 1,339.6 1,421.3 1,525.8 1,477.0 1,485.4 1,493.8 1,503.2 1,512.3 1,518.1 1,525.8 1,538.2 1,540.2 1,548.7 1,558.0 1,569.0 1,580.4 Nonbank travelers checks Other checkable deposits (OCDs) Demand deposits At commercial banks Total 5.5 5.1 4.7 4.3 3.8 3.5 2.9 2.5 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 471.5 447.2 517.6 752.3 927.4 1,034.2 1,199.7 1,238.7 1,372.0 1,478.3 1,453.9 1,469.6 1,487.2 1,476.4 1,490.5 1,492.1 1,478.3 1,503.9 1,476.0 1,510.4 1,490.5 1,471.7 1,462.6 310.3 378.0 396.4 406.5 439.1 465.8 484.2 513.7 546.2 592.8 570.9 573.6 580.7 582.5 586.9 594.4 592.8 603.2 596.3 603.9 610.6 611.4 613.1 At thrift institutions 177.7 229.9 234.1 231.6 243.5 255.7 265.0 276.1 288.2 306.1 294.9 294.6 301.1 300.7 305.0 307.5 306.1 315.9 311.9 314.2 318.1 322.0 318.3 132.6 148.1 162.2 174.8 195.6 210.1 219.1 237.6 258.0 286.7 276.1 279.1 279.6 281.8 281.9 286.9 286.7 287.4 284.4 289.7 292.5 289.4 294.8 Savings deposits (including MMDAs) Small-denomination time deposits 1 At commercial banks At commercial banks Total 4,086.7 4,810.7 5,330.8 6,033.4 6,683.8 7,130.0 7,577.3 8,178.1 8,826.2 9,122.5 8,978.3 9,015.1 9,018.6 9,048.4 9,060.7 9,070.3 9,122.5 9,080.1 9,122.4 9,124.7 9,132.8 9,177.3 9,236.2 3,321.6 3,977.9 4,411.7 5,037.4 5,727.9 6,109.6 6,499.5 7,033.7 7,566.4 7,823.7 7,660.8 7,696.8 7,700.4 7,736.2 7,758.9 7,774.6 7,823.7 7,773.2 7,804.0 7,786.3 7,825.3 7,851.7 7,907.8 At thrift institutions 765.0 832.8 919.1 996.0 955.9 1,020.4 1,077.8 1,144.5 1,259.8 1,298.8 1,317.6 1,318.3 1,318.2 1,312.2 1,301.8 1,295.7 1,298.8 1,306.9 1,318.4 1,338.4 1,307.6 1,325.6 1,328.3 Total 1,457.9 1,187.9 934.5 777.0 645.7 569.9 522.2 411.1 350.4 410.0 369.8 377.2 385.2 396.2 401.3 405.2 410.0 416.4 422.1 431.7 443.5 455.1 467.4 1,079.8 868.8 664.0 548.4 468.9 425.6 390.4 301.0 249.6 299.6 270.2 276.4 281.9 288.3 292.4 295.8 299.6 307.2 315.6 327.0 343.5 352.9 363.3 Retail money funds At thrift institutions 378.1 319.1 270.5 228.6 176.8 144.4 131.7 110.1 100.8 110.4 99.6 100.8 103.4 107.9 108.9 109.4 110.4 109.2 106.5 104.8 100.0 102.2 104.1 1,033.3 790.9 686.5 676.1 655.3 651.9 631.3 653.8 692.2 705.2 691.6 692.4 698.0 700.0 702.3 703.7 705.2 700.7 711.7 713.8 721.0 741.2 751.6 Institutional money funds 2 2,449.2 2,246.6 1,885.3 1,751.4 1,730.5 1,764.8 1,793.9 1,822.8 1,742.0 1,827.3 1,736.0 1,727.3 1,762.8 1,800.2 1,807.7 1,794.4 1,827.3 1,831.1 1,835.0 1,849.7 1,867.2 1,860.4 1,879.8 1 Small-denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000. 2 Institutional money funds are not part of non-M1 M2. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base [Averages of daily figures 1; millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted] Reserves of depository institutions Reserve balances maintained Period Total 2008: Dec ������������ 2009: Dec ������������ 2010: Dec ������������ 2011: Dec ������������ 2012: Dec ������������ 2013: Dec ������������ 2014: Dec ������������ 2015: Dec ������������ 2016: Dec ������������ 2017: Dec ������������ 2017: July ����������� Aug ����������� Sept ���������� Oct ������������ Nov ����������� Dec ������������ 2018: Jan ������������ Feb r ���������� Mar r ��������� Apr r ���������� May r ��������� June ���������� July p ��������� 783,631 1,099,831 1,035,074 1,550,043 1,517,425 2,485,248 2,606,700 2,419,774 2,031,007 2,244,274 2,233,323 2,344,015 2,295,735 2,245,701 2,314,455 2,244,274 2,214,601 2,238,775 2,167,009 2,086,192 2,022,453 1,988,224 1,949,820 To satisfy reserve balance requirements 2 That exceed the top of the penalty-free band ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ 75,713 90,852 97,981 116,285 135,719 132,296 131,641 133,950 128,204 134,981 135,719 138,807 135,786 131,778 138,481 140,316 137,568 137,861 ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ 2,409,535 2,515,848 2,321,793 1,914,722 2,108,555 2,101,027 2,212,375 2,161,785 2,117,497 2,179,474 2,108,555 2,075,794 2,102,989 2,035,232 1,947,710 1,882,137 1,850,656 1,811,960 Reserve balance requirements 3 16,312 24,632 28,438 47,838 58,675 69,030 82,770 89,313 105,944 123,720 120,636 120,091 122,109 116,873 123,141 123,720 126,792 124,006 120,285 126,415 128,144 125,503 125,736 Borrowings from the Federal Reserve Vault cash used to satisfy required reserves 37,245 40,619 42,927 48,672 52,959 55,771 59,236 61,413 64,280 65,549 63,606 63,158 62,140 65,200 63,827 65,549 66,417 66,481 63,866 64,855 64,124 64,525 64,793 Nonborrowed 4 167,311 970,523 1,032,512 1,589,189 1,569,588 2,540,849 2,665,835 2,481,082 2,095,247 2,309,747 2,296,763 2,406,953 2,357,651 2,310,751 2,378,217 2,309,747 2,280,960 2,305,236 2,230,859 2,150,996 2,086,483 2,052,605 2,014,389 Monetary base 5 1,666,365 2,026,220 2,017,000 2,619,586 2,675,945 3,717,450 3,934,455 3,835,810 3,531,565 3,850,969 3,795,430 3,910,022 3,874,490 3,829,910 3,907,735 3,850,969 3,824,795 3,855,056 3,800,608 3,727,119 3,674,768 3,650,525 3,618,339 Total 6 653,565 169,927 45,488 9,526 795 170 102 106 39 75 166 220 224 151 65 75 58 20 16 51 94 143 224 Primary Secondary 88,245 19,025 41 103 12 13 22 38 13 43 12 7 10 4 11 43 51 7 4 16 25 17 20 52 518 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Seasonal Term assetbacked securities loan facility 7 3 �������������������� 37 46,310 26 25,025 23 9,400 23 760 59 98 80 0 67 0 25 0 33 0 154 0 213 0 214 0 146 0 54 0 33 0 7 0 14 0 12 0 35 0 69 0 126 0 203 0 1 Data are prorated averages of biweekly (maintenance period) averages of daily figures 2 Equals the sum of balances maintained up to the top of each institution’s penalty-free band. 3 Excludes vault cash used to satisfy required reserves. 4 Total reserve balances maintained plus vault cash used to satisfy required reserves less total borrowings from the Federal Reserve. 5 Equals total balances maintained plus currency in circulation (not shown). 6 Includes term auction credit (December 2007 to April 2010), primary dealer and other broker-dealer credit (March 2008 to February 2010), credit extended to American International Group, Inc. (September 2008 to January 2011), asset-backed commercial paper money market mutual fund liquidity facility (September 2008 to February 2010), and other credit extensions, not shown separately. 7 Includes credit extended by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to eligible borrowers through the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility. Note: Data reflect the creation of a penalty-free band around reserve balance requirements which took effect June 27, 2013. See H.3 release of July 11, 2013. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks Total commercial bank loans and leases rose 0.5 percent in June. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 14,000 ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 12,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 14,000 12,000 TOTAL 10,000 9,000 8,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 7,000 LOANS AND LEASES 6,000 6,000 5,000 5,000 4,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 U.S. TREASURY AND AGENCY SECURITIES 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 800 800 OTHER SECURITIES 400 400 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1] Securities in bank credit 2 Period 2008: Dec ����������� 2009: Dec ����������� 2010: Dec ����������� 2011: Dec ����������� 2012: Dec ����������� 2013: Dec ����������� 2014: Dec ����������� 2015: Dec ����������� 2016: Dec ����������� 2017: Dec ����������� 2017: June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar r �������� Apr r ��������� May r �������� June p ������� Total bank credit 9,031.7 8,782.8 8,982.5 9,107.8 9,625.9 9,827.1 10,538.9 11,341.4 12,092.1 12,542.9 12,278.8 12,319.3 12,342.7 12,380.6 12,436.9 12,484.7 12,542.9 12,559.0 12,565.6 12,592.9 12,662.3 12,682.9 12,760.3 Total securities 2,094.3 2,326.1 2,426.9 2,493.4 2,733.6 2,721.3 2,931.6 3,109.8 3,315.3 3,433.7 3,370.9 3,373.5 3,375.3 3,378.5 3,388.0 3,403.7 3,433.7 3,425.4 3,400.1 3,384.7 3,370.0 3,379.3 3,412.5 U.S. Treasury and agency securities 1,250.6 1,446.3 1,641.0 1,699.2 1,872.9 1,809.2 2,040.7 2,226.4 2,413.0 2,526.3 2,454.3 2,462.2 2,466.0 2,472.1 2,489.2 2,498.5 2,526.3 2,515.8 2,499.4 2,497.1 2,502.3 2,517.6 2,549.4 Loans and leases in bank credit Other securities 843.7 879.7 785.9 794.3 860.8 912.1 890.8 883.5 902.3 907.4 916.6 911.3 909.3 906.5 898.7 905.3 907.4 909.6 900.8 887.6 867.8 861.7 863.1 Total loans and leases 3 6,937.5 6,456.8 6,555.6 6,614.4 6,892.2 7,105.8 7,607.3 8,231.6 8,776.8 9,109.2 8,907.9 8,945.7 8,967.3 9,002.1 9,048.9 9,081.0 9,109.2 9,133.6 9,165.4 9,208.2 9,292.2 9,303.6 9,347.8 Commercial and industrial loans 1,558.8 1,265.3 1,192.5 1,303.8 1,474.4 1,574.3 1,773.6 1,957.9 2,099.0 2,116.3 2,097.0 2,100.2 2,104.9 2,114.5 2,114.2 2,113.4 2,116.3 2,122.2 2,125.3 2,144.0 2,189.1 2,189.7 2,209.6 Chart 28 - Jul 2018 Real estate loans Total 4 3,819.2 3,776.9 3,613.5 3,495.0 3,550.7 3,531.8 3,638.7 3,871.3 4,117.8 4,288.4 4,196.8 4,215.9 4,225.0 4,233.7 4,259.2 4,273.3 4,288.4 4,300.4 4,315.0 4,329.7 4,342.0 4,337.5 4,347.0 Revolving home equity loans 588.3 603.2 581.6 549.6 515.2 473.7 457.8 440.6 410.8 381.3 395.7 393.3 390.5 388.0 385.8 383.2 381.3 378.9 376.5 373.5 370.7 366.3 362.8 Commercial loans 1,728.4 1,641.0 1,500.5 1,418.3 1,428.2 1,498.2 1,605.3 1,780.9 1,962.9 2,086.0 2,036.3 2,046.6 2,053.5 2,055.7 2,067.8 2,077.6 2,086.0 2,093.8 2,103.9 2,113.6 2,122.0 2,130.5 2,139.0 Consumer loans 5 875.3 835.4 1,106.8 1,086.0 1,102.5 1,128.0 1,186.5 1,258.2 1,354.4 1,425.1 1,374.9 1,380.5 1,385.7 1,392.9 1,408.1 1,421.5 1,425.1 1,430.3 1,435.7 1,442.5 1,462.4 1,467.1 1,472.8 All other loans and leases 6 684.1 579.2 642.7 729.6 764.6 871.7 1,008.5 1,144.3 1,205.7 1,279.4 1,239.3 1,249.1 1,251.7 1,261.0 1,267.5 1,272.7 1,279.4 1,280.7 1,289.4 1,291.9 1,298.7 1,309.3 1,318.3 1 Data are prorated averages of Wednesday values for domestically chartered commercial banks, branches and agencies of foreign banks, and Edge Act and agreement corporations. 2 Includes securities held in trading accounts, held-to-maturity, and available-for-sale. Excludes all non-security trading assets, such as derivatives with a positive fair value or loans held in trading accounts. 3 Excludes unearned income. Includes the allowance for loan and lease losses. Excludes Federal funds sold to, reverse repurchase agreements (RPs) with, and loans to commercial banks in the United States. Includes all loans held in trading accounts under a fair value option. 4 Includes closed-end residential loans, not shown separately. 5 Includes credit cards and other consumer loans. 6 Includes other items, not shown separately. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 28 Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses External (Net increase in liabilities) Funds raised in markets Period Total 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2015: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2016: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2017: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2018: I p �������������� Internal 1 1,734.0 1,186.6 2,165.7 2,624.2 2,742.2 2,800.6 3,290.6 3,301.2 3,212.8 2,963.5 3,547.2 3,404.2 3,055.1 3,198.1 2,900.8 3,946.0 2,968.1 3,036.3 2,655.1 2,938.9 3,103.3 3,156.7 3,168.7 1,395.1 1,435.3 1,678.1 1,729.9 1,757.4 1,874.1 1,908.5 1,887.4 1,826.7 1,750.8 1,914.6 1,876.7 1,922.0 1,836.2 1,888.7 1,784.9 1,816.6 1,816.6 1,853.1 1,896.2 2,053.1 1,200.7 2,109.2 Total net funds raised Total 338.9 –248.7 487.6 894.3 984.8 926.5 1,382.1 1,413.8 1,386.1 1,212.7 1,632.6 1,527.5 1,133.1 1,361.9 1,012.1 2,161.1 1,151.5 1,219.7 802.0 1,042.7 1,050.2 1,956.0 1,059.5 –62.9 –379.7 –297.5 –127.7 –56.5 42.1 23.0 –46.9 –174.6 133.9 46.3 186.4 –203.9 –216.6 220.8 –374.6 –181.4 –363.2 213.8 274.5 97.0 –49.6 –28.5 Net new equity issues –315.6 –51.2 –250.7 –454.6 –344.9 –352.9 –394.5 –549.6 –576.8 –378.8 –573.9 –473.8 –615.8 –535.0 –617.9 –638.6 –672.2 –378.4 –403.3 –267.7 –539.1 –305.1 –386.0 Credit market instruments Total Securities and mortgages Loans and short-term paper 112.9 139.3 106.1 81.2 206.5 265.4 246.7 445.2 338.3 325.8 486.0 676.5 354.0 264.1 553.0 389.3 428.3 –17.5 449.9 287.5 358.3 207.2 296.6 139.9 –467.9 –153.0 245.7 81.9 129.7 170.8 57.6 64.0 187.0 134.2 –16.2 57.9 54.3 285.7 –125.2 62.5 32.7 167.1 254.7 277.8 48.3 60.9 252.7 –328.6 –46.8 326.8 288.4 395.0 417.5 502.7 402.2 512.7 620.2 660.2 411.9 318.5 838.7 264.0 490.8 15.2 617.1 542.3 636.1 255.5 357.5 Other 2 203.8 19.0 623.4 823.3 852.0 697.2 1,174.0 1,024.5 1,173.8 837.1 639.9 988.1 1,113.2 1,357.0 421.8 1,936.3 929.4 1,408.1 324.1 509.9 728.3 1,786.1 874.9 Total 751.2 1,320.6 1,868.1 1,828.7 2,007.5 2,554.6 2,622.6 3,289.0 3,159.2 2,839.2 3,328.4 3,581.5 3,231.1 3,015.1 2,890.2 3,869.3 2,959.7 2,917.8 2,551.2 2,972.3 2,971.4 2,861.9 2,933.0 Capital expenditures 3 1,360.0 1,020.8 1,235.4 1,331.9 1,501.2 1,565.0 1,699.9 1,800.3 1,673.8 1,742.9 1,789.3 1,894.1 1,792.2 1,725.8 1,665.3 1,671.3 1,658.6 1,700.0 1,685.8 1,718.8 1,784.9 1,782.2 1,837.3 Increase in financial assets –608.8 299.8 632.7 496.8 506.3 989.6 922.7 1,488.7 1,485.4 1,096.3 1,539.1 1,687.4 1,438.9 1,289.3 1,224.9 2,198.0 1,301.1 1,217.8 865.4 1,253.5 1,186.5 1,079.7 1,095.7 Discrepancy (sources less uses) 982.8 –134.0 297.6 795.6 734.7 246.0 668.2 12.1 53.6 124.3 218.8 –177.2 –176.0 182.9 10.6 76.8 8.4 118.3 103.8 –33.4 132.0 294.8 235.7 1 Profits before tax (book) less taxes on corporate income, less net dividends, plus capital consumption allowance (consumption of fixed capital plus capital consumption adjustment), foreign earnings retained abroad, inventory valuation adjustment, and net capital transfers. 2 Includes trade payables, taxes payable, and miscellaneous liabilities (foreign direct investment in the U.S., pension fund contributions payable, and other). 3 Nonresidential fixed investment plus residential fixed investment, inventory change with inventory valuation adjustment, and nonproduced nonfinancial assets. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Consumer Credit [Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Net change in consumer credit outstanding 1 Consumer credit outstanding (end of period) Period Total 2008: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2009: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2010: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2011: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2012: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2013: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2014: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2015: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2016: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2017: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2017: May ����������������������������������������� June ���������������������������������������� July ����������������������������������������� Aug ����������������������������������������� Sept ���������������������������������������� Oct ������������������������������������������ Nov ����������������������������������������� Dec ������������������������������������������ 2018: Jan ������������������������������������������ Feb ������������������������������������������ Mar ����������������������������������������� Apr ������������������������������������������ May p �������������������������������������� Nonrevolving 2 Revolving 2,643.8 2,555.0 2,646.8 2,757.1 2,918.3 3,093.4 3,314.6 3,413.6 3,643.7 3,831.0 3,720.2 3,731.3 3,746.0 3,759.4 3,767.6 3,787.6 3,817.8 3,831.0 3,842.9 3,854.1 3,862.9 3,873.2 3,897.7 1,004.0 916.1 839.1 840.6 844.3 855.6 889.1 907.9 969.4 1,028.5 988.3 991.5 993.3 998.3 1,003.5 1,010.9 1,023.3 1,028.5 1,029.3 1,029.5 1,028.5 1,029.6 1,039.3 1,639.8 1,638.9 1,807.7 1,916.4 2,074.0 2,237.8 2,425.4 2,505.7 2,674.2 2,802.4 2,731.8 2,739.8 2,752.7 2,761.0 2,764.2 2,776.6 2,794.5 2,802.4 2,813.6 2,824.6 2,834.4 2,843.6 2,858.4 Total Nonrevolving 2 Revolving 34.3 –88.8 91.8 110.3 161.2 175.1 221.2 99.0 230.1 187.3 17.6 11.1 14.7 13.4 8.2 20.0 30.2 13.2 11.9 11.2 8.8 10.3 24.5 2.4 –87.9 –77.0 1.5 3.7 11.3 33.5 18.8 61.5 59.1 6.8 3.2 1.8 5.0 5.2 7.4 12.4 5.2 .8 .2 –1.0 1.1 9.7 31.9 –.9 168.8 108.7 157.6 163.8 187.6 80.3 168.5 128.2 10.7 8.0 12.9 8.3 3.2 12.4 17.9 7.9 11.2 11.0 9.8 9.2 14.8 1 Change based on data in billions of dollars as shown here. For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month. 2 Includes automobile loans and all other loans not included in revolving credit, such as loans for mobile homes, education, boats, trailers, or vacations. These loans may be secured or unsecured. Note: Data include student loans extended by the Federal Government and by SLM Holding Corporation. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 Interest Rates and Bond Yields Interest rates were mixed in July. PERCENT PER ANNUM 10 PERCENT PER ANNUM 10 8 8 6 6 CORPORATE Aaa BONDS (MOODY'S) 4 4 2 2 FEDERAL FUNDS RATE TREASURY BILLS 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] Chart 30 - Jul 2018 U.S. Treasury security yields Period 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2017: July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� July ���������� Week ended: 2018: July 7 ������ 14 ������� 21 ������� 28 ������� Aug 4 ������ 3-month bills (at auction) 1 Constant maturities 2 3-year 10-year 30-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor’s) 3 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody’s) Discount window primary credit (N.Y. F.R. Bank) 4 Prime rate charged by banks 4 Federal funds rate 5 New-home mortgage yields (FHFA) 6 1.48 .16 .14 .06 .09 .06 .03 .06 .33 .94 1.08 1.03 1.04 1.08 1.23 1.35 1.43 1.53 1.70 1.76 1.87 1.91 1.96 2.24 1.43 1.11 .75 .38 .54 .90 1.02 1.00 1.58 1.54 1.48 1.51 1.68 1.81 1.96 2.15 2.36 2.42 2.52 2.66 2.65 2.70 3.66 3.26 3.22 2.78 1.80 2.35 2.54 2.14 1.84 2.33 2.32 2.21 2.20 2.36 2.35 2.40 2.58 2.86 2.84 2.87 2.98 2.91 2.89 4.28 4.08 4.25 3.91 2.92 3.45 3.34 2.84 2.59 2.89 2.88 2.80 2.78 2.88 2.80 2.77 2.88 3.13 3.09 3.07 3.13 3.05 3.01 4.80 4.64 4.16 4.29 3.14 3.96 3.78 3.48 3.07 3.36 3.03 3.23 3.27 3.31 3.03 3.21 3.29 3.54 3.58 3.55 3.38 3.15 3.45 5.63 5.31 4.94 4.64 3.67 4.24 4.16 3.89 3.67 3.74 3.70 3.63 3.63 3.60 3.57 3.51 3.55 3.82 3.87 3.85 4.00 3.96 3.87 2.39 .50 .72 .75 .75 .75 .75 .76 1.01 1.60 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.50 2.50 5.09 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.26 3.51 4.10 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.75 4.75 4.75 5.00 5.00 1.92 6.05 .16 5.14 .18 4.80 .10 4.56 .14 3.69 .11 4.00 .09 4.22 .13 4.01 .39 3.76 1.00 3.97 1.15 3.88 1.16 3.97 1.15 3.89 1.15 3.76 1.16 3.81 1.30 3.90 1.41 3.94 1.42 4.15 1.51 4.33 1.69 4.52 1.70 4.55 1.82 4.58 1.91 ������������������������� 1.94 1.95 1.98 1.97 2.00 2.64 2.67 2.68 2.75 2.76 2.84 2.85 2.86 2.96 2.97 2.96 2.95 2.98 3.09 3.11 3.43 3.42 3.42 3.48 3.59 3.90 3.83 3.85 3.92 p 3.91 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 1.91 1.91 1.91 1.91 1.91 ������������������������� ������������������������� ������������������������� ������������������������� ������������������������� 1 High bill rate at auction, issue date within period, bank-discount basis. Data are stop yields from uniform-price auctions. 2 Yields on actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Average effective rate for year; rate in effect at end of month or week. 5 Beginning March 1, 2016, the daily effective federal funds rate is a volume-weighted median of transaction-level data collected from depository institutions in the Report of Selected Money Market Rates (FR 2420). Prior to that date, the daily effective rate was a volume-weighted mean of rates on brokered trades. 6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Moody’s Investors Service, Bloomberg, and Standard & Poor’s. 30 Common Stock Prices and Yields Stock prices rose in July. INDEX, DEC. 31, 2002=5,000 (RATIO SCALE) 14,000 13,000 INDEX, DEC. 31, 2002=5,000 (RATIO SCALE) 14,000 13,000 12,000 12,000 11,000 11,000 COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX (NYSE) 10,000 9,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 8,000 7,000 7,000 6,000 6,000 5,000 5,000 4,000 2010 2011 2013 2012 2014 4,000 2015 2016 2017 PERCENT 20 2018 PERCENT 20 15 15 EARNINGS/PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS (S&P) 10 10 5 5 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2015 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, STANDARD AND POOR'S, AND BLOOMBERG 2017 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Common stock yields (percent) 6 Common stock prices 1 Chart 31 - Jul 2018 New York Stock Exchange indexes (December 31, 2002=5,000) 2 Period Composite 2008 ��������������������� 2009 ��������������������� 2010 ��������������������� 2011 ��������������������� 2012 ��������������������� 2013 ��������������������� 2014 ��������������������� 2015 ��������������������� 2016 ��������������������� 2017 ��������������������� 2017: July ����������� Aug ����������� Sept ���������� Oct ������������ Nov ����������� Dec ������������ 2018: Jan ������������ Feb ������������ Mar ����������� Apr ������������ May ����������� June ���������� July ����������� Week ended: 2018: July 7 ������� 14 �������� 21 �������� 28 �������� Aug 4 ������� Financial Energy Health Care Dow Jones industrial average 3 Standard & Poor’s composite index (1941–43=10) 4 Nasdaq composite index (Feb. 5, 1971=100) 5 Dividend/price ratio Earnings/price ratio 8,036.88 6,091.02 7,230.42 7,871.41 8,011.65 9,426.77 10,653.17 10,676.70 10,380.08 11,843.74 11,873.22 11,846.65 12,057.14 12,346.31 12,379.57 12,706.33 13,286.10 12,752.00 12,615.26 12,535.19 12,631.36 12,663.17 12,775.18 6,278.38 3,987.04 4,744.05 4,641.01 4,616.63 5,805.54 6,448.33 6,559.24 6,124.93 7,509.81 7,572.96 7,572.45 7,611.03 7,891.70 7,929.53 8,192.39 8,526.59 8,271.86 8,190.26 8,011.33 8,043.57 7,930.41 7,972.03 13,258.42 10,020.30 10,943.85 12,880.35 12,512.31 13,490.83 14,598.07 11,332.43 10,204.95 10,699.23 10,181.75 10,061.50 10,535.38 10,823.03 10,944.99 11,146.16 12,048.73 10,915.48 10,756.41 11,490.42 12,182.57 11,978.03 12,143.16 6,171.19 5,456.63 6,230.62 6,847.80 7,503.05 9,250.02 11,195.85 12,718.18 12,182.85 13,366.56 13,731.48 13,514.12 13,920.43 14,136.06 14,037.05 14,238.12 14,946.67 14,425.24 14,311.49 14,188.05 14,312.39 14,587.88 14,984.25 11,252.61 8,876.15 10,662.80 11,966.36 12,967.08 14,999.67 16,773.99 17,590.61 17,908.08 21,741.91 21,581.25 21,914.08 22,173.41 23,036.24 23,557.93 24,545.38 25,804.02 24,981.55 24,582.17 24,304.21 24,572.53 24,790.11 24,978.23 1,220.89 946.73 1,139.31 1,268.89 1,379.56 1,642.51 1,930.67 2,061.20 2,092.39 2,448.22 2,454.10 2,456.22 2,492.84 2,557.00 2,593.61 2,664.34 2,789.80 2,705.16 2,702.77 2,653.63 2,701.49 2,754.35 2,793.64 2,162.46 1,841.03 2,347.70 2,680.42 2,965.77 3,537.69 4,374.31 4,943.49 4,982.49 6,231.28 6,294.67 6,311.40 6,428.08 6,603.01 6,796.04 6,889.74 7,279.50 7,161.77 7,311.51 7,084.14 7,339.33 7,645.14 7,756.86 2.37 2.40 1.98 2.05 2.24 2.14 2.04 2.10 2.19 �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� 3.54 1.86 6.04 6.77 6.20 5.57 5.25 4.59 4.17 4.22 ���������������������������� ���������������������������� 4.25 ���������������������������� ���������������������������� 4.11 ���������������������������� ���������������������������� 4.37 ���������������������������� ���������������������������� p 4.54 ���������������������������� 12,557.59 12,760.82 12,785.52 12,889.98 12,924.11 7,805.12 7,921.35 7,983.69 8,092.39 8,103.13 12,061.55 12,265.09 12,037.62 12,138.24 12,153.88 14,631.95 14,941.23 14,970.26 15,177.58 15,419.41 24,323.81 24,868.20 25,101.23 25,335.69 25,368.92 2,734.09 2,790.33 2,805.98 2,825.94 2,819.96 7,586.29 7,776.38 7,832.16 7,840.90 7,724.76 �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� ���������������������������� ���������������������������� ���������������������������� ���������������������������� ���������������������������� 1 Annual data are averages of monthly figures. Monthly and weekly data are averages of daily closing prices. 2 Includes all the stocks (in 2018, over 2,700) listed on the NYSE. 3 Includes 30 stocks. 4 Includes 500 stocks. 5 Includes over 3,000 stocks in 2018. 6 Standard & Poor’s series. Dividend/price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings/price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones & Company, Inc., Standard & Poor’s, Nasdaq Stock Market, and Bloomberg. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE. Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt In the first nine months of fiscal year 2018, the deficit was $607.1 billion, compared with a deficit of $523.1 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4,800 RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS1 4,600 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4,800 4,600 4,400 4,400 4,200 4,200 OUTLAYS1 4,000 4,000 3,800 3,800 3,600 3,600 3,400 3,400 3,200 3,200 3,000 3,000 RECEIPTS1 2,800 2,800 2,600 2,600 2,400 2,400 2,200 2,200 2,000 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,800 1,600 400 SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (–)1 400 0 0 –400 –400 –800 –800 –1,200 –1,200 –1,600 –1,600 –2,000 –2,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 FISCAL YEARS 1 INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Total Fiscal year or period Receipts 2000 ���������������������������������������������������� 2001 ���������������������������������������������������� 2002 ���������������������������������������������������� 2003 ���������������������������������������������������� 2004 ���������������������������������������������������� 2005 ���������������������������������������������������� 2006 ���������������������������������������������������� 2007 ���������������������������������������������������� 2008 ���������������������������������������������������� 2009 ���������������������������������������������������� 2010 ���������������������������������������������������� 2011 ���������������������������������������������������� 2012 ���������������������������������������������������� 2013 ���������������������������������������������������� 2014 ���������������������������������������������������� 2015 ���������������������������������������������������� 2016 ���������������������������������������������������� 2017 ���������������������������������������������������� 2018 (estimates) r ������������������������������� 2019 (estimates) r ������������������������������� Cumulative total, first 9 months: 1 Fiscal year 2017 ���������������������������������� Fiscal year 2018 ���������������������������������� Outlays Chart 32 - Jul 2018 On-budget Surplus or deficit (–) Receipts Outlays Federal debt (end of period) Off-budget Surplus or deficit (–) Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (–) Gross Federal Held by the public 2,025.2 1,991.1 1,853.1 1,782.3 1,880.1 2,153.6 2,406.9 2,568.0 2,524.0 2,105.0 2,162.7 2,303.5 2,450.0 2,775.1 3,021.5 3,249.9 3,268.0 3,316.2 3,321.9 3,424.4 1,789.0 1,862.8 2,010.9 2,159.9 2,292.8 2,472.0 2,655.1 2,728.7 2,982.5 3,517.7 3,457.1 3,603.1 3,536.9 3,454.6 3,506.1 3,688.4 3,852.6 3,981.6 4,171.0 4,509.6 236.2 128.2 –157.8 –377.6 –412.7 –318.3 –248.2 –160.7 –458.6 –1,412.7 –1,294.4 –1,299.6 –1,087.0 –679.5 –484.6 –438.5 –584.7 –665.4 –849.1 –1,085.3 1,544.6 1,483.6 1,337.8 1,258.5 1,345.4 1,576.1 1,798.5 1,932.9 1,865.9 1,451.0 1,531.0 1,737.7 1,880.5 2,101.8 2,285.9 2,479.5 2,457.8 2,465.6 2,467.4 2,513.3 1,458.2 1,516.0 1,655.2 1,796.9 1,913.3 2,069.7 2,233.0 2,275.0 2,507.8 3,000.7 2,902.4 3,104.5 3,029.4 2,820.8 2,800.0 2,945.3 3,077.9 3,180.4 3,320.4 3,599.8 86.4 –32.4 –317.4 –538.4 –568.0 –493.6 –434.5 –342.2 –641.8 –1,549.7 –1,371.4 –1,366.8 –1,148.9 –719.0 –514.1 –465.8 –620.2 –714.8 –853.0 –1,086.4 480.6 507.5 515.3 523.8 534.7 577.5 608.4 635.1 658.0 654.0 631.7 565.8 569.5 673.3 735.6 770.4 810.2 850.6 854.6 911.1 330.8 346.8 355.7 363.0 379.5 402.2 422.1 453.6 474.8 517.0 554.7 498.6 507.6 633.8 706.1 743.1 774.7 801.2 850.6 909.9 149.8 160.7 159.7 160.8 155.2 175.3 186.3 181.5 183.3 137.0 77.0 67.2 61.9 39.5 29.5 27.3 35.5 49.4 3.9 1.2 5,628.7 5,769.9 6,198.4 6,760.0 7,354.7 7,905.3 8,451.4 8,950.7 9,986.1 11,875.9 13,528.8 14,764.2 16,050.9 16,719.4 17,794.5 18,120.1 19,539.5 20,205.7 21,476.6 22,818.1 3,409.8 3,319.6 3,540.4 3,913.4 4,295.5 4,592.2 4,829.0 5,035.1 5,803.1 7,544.7 9,018.9 10,128.2 11,281.1 11,982.7 12,779.9 13,116.7 14,167.6 14,665.5 15,792.8 16,978.0 2,507.8 2,540.8 3,030.9 3,147.9 –523.1 –607.1 1,859.1 1,895.0 2,452.8 2,535.3 –593.8 –640.3 648.8 645.8 578.1 612.6 70.7 33.2 19,803.6 21,141.8 14,355.9 15,458.0 1 Data from current issue Monthly Treasury Statement. Note: Data for fiscal year 2018 and fiscal year 2019 are from Mid-Session Review, Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 2019, issued July 13, 2018. Other data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2019, issued February 12 , 2018. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 32 Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function In the first nine months of fiscal year 2018, receipts were $33.0 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $117.1 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2,000 1 RECEIPTS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2,000 INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 800 OTHER RECEIPTS 400 800 CORPORATION INCOME TAXES SOCIAL INSURANCE AND RETIREMENT RECEIPTS 400 0 0 4,000 3,800 4,000 3,800 OUTLAYS1 3,600 3,600 3,400 3,400 NONDEFENSE 3,200 3,200 3,000 3,000 2,800 2,800 2,600 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 2,000 1,800 1,600 800 800 600 600 NATIONAL DEFENSE 400 400 200 200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 FISCAL YEARS 1 INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Chart 33 - Jul 2018 On-budget and off-budget receipts Fiscal year or period 2000 ���������������������������������������������������� 2001 ���������������������������������������������������� 2002 ���������������������������������������������������� 2003 ���������������������������������������������������� 2004 ���������������������������������������������������� 2005 ���������������������������������������������������� 2006 ���������������������������������������������������� 2007 ���������������������������������������������������� 2008 ���������������������������������������������������� 2009 ���������������������������������������������������� 2010 ���������������������������������������������������� 2011 ���������������������������������������������������� 2012 ���������������������������������������������������� 2013 ���������������������������������������������������� 2014 ���������������������������������������������������� 2015 ���������������������������������������������������� 2016 ���������������������������������������������������� 2017 ���������������������������������������������������� 2018 (estimates) r ������������������������������� 2019 (estimates) r ������������������������������� Cumulative total, first 9 months: 1 Fiscal year 2017 ���������������������������������� Fiscal year 2018 ���������������������������������� On-budget and off-budget outlays National defense Indi- Corporavidual tion income income taxes taxes Social insurance and retirement receipts 2,025.2 1,991.1 1,853.1 1,782.3 1,880.1 2,153.6 2,406.9 2,568.0 2,524.0 2,105.0 2,162.7 2,303.5 2,450.0 2,775.1 3,021.5 3,249.9 3,268.0 3,316.2 3,321.9 3,424.4 1,004.5 994.3 858.3 793.7 809.0 927.2 1,043.9 1,163.5 1,145.7 915.3 898.5 1,091.5 1,132.2 1,316.4 1,394.6 1,540.8 1,546.1 1,587.1 1,685.4 1,705.2 207.3 151.1 148.0 131.8 189.4 278.3 353.9 370.2 304.3 138.2 191.4 181.1 242.3 273.5 320.7 343.8 299.6 297.0 204.3 225.5 652.9 694.0 700.8 713.0 733.4 794.1 837.8 869.6 900.2 890.9 864.8 818.8 845.3 947.8 1,023.5 1,065.3 1,115.1 1,161.9 1,170.8 1,243.1 160.6 151.7 146.0 143.9 148.4 154.0 171.2 164.7 173.7 160.5 207.9 212.1 230.2 237.4 282.7 300.0 307.3 270.1 261.4 250.6 1,789.0 1,862.8 2,010.9 2,159.9 2,292.8 2,472.0 2,655.1 2,728.7 2,982.5 3,517.7 3,457.1 3,603.1 3,536.9 3,454.6 3,506.1 3,688.4 3,852.6 3,981.6 4,171.0 4,509.6 294.4 304.7 348.5 404.7 455.8 495.3 521.8 551.3 616.1 661.0 693.5 705.6 677.9 633.4 603.5 589.7 593.4 598.7 623.4 689.7 281.0 290.2 331.8 387.1 436.4 474.1 499.3 528.5 594.6 636.7 666.7 678.1 650.9 607.8 577.9 562.5 565.4 568.9 592.6 657.6 17.2 16.5 22.3 21.2 26.9 34.6 29.5 28.5 28.9 37.5 45.2 45.7 47.2 46.2 46.7 48.6 45.3 46.3 51.9 54.5 154.5 172.2 196.5 219.5 240.1 250.5 252.7 266.4 280.6 334.3 369.1 372.5 346.7 358.3 409.4 482.2 511.3 533.1 574.8 615.2 197.1 217.4 230.9 249.4 269.4 298.6 329.9 375.4 390.8 430.1 451.6 485.7 471.8 497.8 511.7 546.2 594.5 597.3 592.8 636.0 253.7 269.8 312.7 334.6 333.1 345.8 352.5 366.0 431.3 533.2 622.2 597.3 541.3 536.5 513.6 508.8 514.1 503.5 498.6 503.7 409.4 433.0 456.0 474.7 495.5 523.3 548.5 586.2 617.0 683.0 706.7 730.8 773.3 813.6 850.5 887.8 916.1 944.9 988.2 1,047.3 222.9 206.2 170.9 153.1 160.2 184.0 226.6 237.1 252.8 186.9 196.2 230.0 220.4 220.9 229.0 223.2 240.0 262.6 322.3 392.5 239.7 243.1 273.1 302.6 311.8 339.8 393.5 317.9 365.2 651.6 372.6 435.5 458.3 347.9 341.7 401.9 437.9 495.2 519.1 570.7 2,507.8 2,540.8 1,199.2 1,305.5 223.3 161.7 887.9 887.4 197.5 186.2 3,030.9 3,147.9 471.1 497.2 424.9 449.7 34.3 35.4 369.3 383.6 440.9 455.6 399.7 398.4 706.9 738.3 223.6 264.9 384.9 374.4 Total Other Total Total Depart- Internament tional of affairs Defense, military Health Medicare Income Social Net security security interest Other 1 Data from current issue Monthly Treasury Statement. Data for Department of Defense, military, include a small amount that is classified and listed under international affairs, and not included in national defense. Note: Data for fiscal year 2018 and fiscal year 2019 are from Mid-Session Review, Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 2019, issued July 13, 2018. Other data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2019, issued February 12, 2018. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis In the second quarter of 2018, according to advance estimates, Federal current expenditures rose $52.8 billion; Federal current receipts data are incomplete. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4,800 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4,800 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 4,400 4,400 4,000 4,000 3,600 3,600 CURRENT EXPENDITURES 3,200 3,200 2,800 2,800 CURRENT RECEIPTS 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 800 800 400 400 0 0 NET FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SAVING –400 –400 –800 –800 –1,200 –1,200 –1,600 –1,600 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Chart 34 - Jul 2018 Federal Government current receipts Current tax receipts Period Total Total 1 Calendar year: 2008 r ����������� 2,580.7 1,489.5 2009 r ����������� 2,239.5 1,123.7 2010 r ����������� 2,444.0 1,273.6 2011 r ����������� 2,572.8 1,478.4 2012 r ����������� 2,700.3 1,573.0 2013 r ����������� 3,139.0 1,744.9 2014 r ����������� 3,292.2 1,900.1 r 2015 ����������� 3,446.3 2,021.2 r 2016 ����������� 3,475.5 2,034.5 2017 r ����������� 3,558.8 2,054.9 r 2016: I ������������� 3,447.2 2,002.8 r II ������������ 3,448.4 2,011.1 III r ����������� 3,491.8 2,058.5 IV r ����������� 3,514.4 2,065.5 2017: I r ������������� 3,572.4 2,031.1 II r ������������ 3,538.8 2,050.9 III r ����������� 3,590.3 2,079.7 IV r ����������� 3,533.6 2,058.0 2018: I r ������������� 3,428.1 1,908.7 II p ������������ ������������ �������������� Contributions for Income Taxes govern- receipts Taxes Personal on ment on on current production corporate social assets taxes and insurincome imports ance Federal Government current expenditures 1,176.3 866.2 943.2 1,130.3 1,165.8 1,302.3 1,403.1 1,528.3 1,545.7 1,613.4 1,522.0 1,532.4 1,551.6 1,576.7 1,588.1 1,606.3 1,625.9 1,633.3 1,583.9 1,605.8 94.0 202.0 91.4 153.0 96.8 219.4 108.6 224.0 115.2 274.7 125.5 298.4 136.3 339.6 140.4 329.6 137.7 327.1 131.5 284.6 138.5 317.7 135.7 319.5 137.8 345.5 138.6 325.7 128.8 289.7 131.0 288.5 132.2 296.0 133.9 264.4 149.5 149.0 151.3 �������������� 974.5 65.9 950.7 97.0 970.9 133.8 903.2 130.4 938.0 141.1 1,091.8 243.1 1,140.3 171.7 1,191.4 159.6 1,225.0 138.0 1,283.2 135.4 1,211.4 151.2 1,217.5 136.4 1,228.5 137.4 1,242.5 126.9 1,265.4 161.7 1,275.4 141.7 1,290.5 129.1 1,301.5 109.1 1,327.4 122.4 1,340.5 ������������ 1 Includes taxes from the rest of the world, not shown separately. 2 Includes Federal grants-in-aid to State and local governments, not shown separately. Note: See Note, p. 1. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 34 Current transfer receipts 49.7 67.2 68.1 67.1 56.1 69.3 87.3 77.7 79.8 87.3 83.3 85.8 69.1 80.7 114.9 71.6 93.2 69.6 77.1 80.0 Current surplus of government enterprises 1.1 .9 –2.4 –6.3 –7.8 –10.1 –7.2 –3.6 –1.7 –2.0 –1.5 –2.4 –1.7 –1.2 –.7 –.8 –2.1 –4.5 –7.5 –9.4 Total 3,211.8 3,488.4 3,769.1 3,814.7 3,779.0 3,776.9 3,894.0 4,015.2 4,140.6 4,254.2 4,085.2 4,117.3 4,166.7 4,192.9 4,228.3 4,200.3 4,250.9 4,337.2 4,398.2 4,451.0 ConCurrent sumption transfer Interest Subsidies expendipaypayments tures ments 2 878.9 935.6 1,000.7 1,003.3 999.3 956.9 950.3 955.8 967.6 986.8 958.8 961.8 972.0 977.7 980.5 984.1 984.7 997.9 1,012.7 1,028.1 1,894.9 2,141.3 2,332.7 2,326.6 2,299.5 2,344.4 2,446.9 2,573.3 2,656.7 2,725.2 2,628.3 2,644.2 2,671.1 2,683.3 2,707.3 2,702.4 2,736.7 2,754.6 2,800.1 2,825.7 388.4 354.5 381.5 425.4 422.6 416.3 439.1 429.3 455.0 481.4 437.8 449.4 461.1 471.7 481.5 456.0 467.0 521.1 525.5 537.8 Net Federal Government saving 49.6 –631.1 56.9 –1,248.9 54.2 –1,325.1 59.5 –1,242.0 57.6 –1,078.6 59.2 –637.9 57.6 –601.8 56.7 –568.9 61.3 –665.1 60.7 –695.4 60.3 –638.0 61.9 –668.8 62.6 –674.9 60.3 –678.6 59.0 –655.9 57.8 –661.5 62.5 –660.5 63.6 –803.6 60.0 –970.1 59.4 ���������������� INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries Industrial production (2012=100; seasonally adjusted) Period United States Canada Japan France Germany Consumer prices (1982–84=100; NSA) United Kingdom Italy United States 1 Canada Japan France 2008 r ������������� 100.8 102.7 113.2 109.0 100.9 120.9 110.0 215.303 197.3 120.3 2009 r ������������� 89.2 91.0 88.7 95.4 84.4 98.4 100.2 214.537 197.9 118.7 2010 r ������������� 94.1 95.4 102.6 99.5 93.5 105.3 103.4 218.056 201.4 117.8 2011 ��������������� 97.1 100.0 99.8 102.5 100.3 106.1 102.8 224.939 207.2 117.5 2012 ��������������� 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 229.594 210.4 117.5 2013 r ������������� 102.0 101.5 99.4 99.2 100.1 97.0 99.3 232.957 212.4 117.9 2014 ��������������� 105.2 106.5 101.5 98.1 101.5 96.3 100.8 236.736 216.4 121.1 2015 ��������������� 104.1 105.9 100.2 99.6 102.3 97.3 102.0 237.017 218.8 122.1 r 2016 ������������� 102.1 106.4 100.0 99.9 103.6 99.3 103.0 240.007 222.0 121.9 2017 r ������������� 103.7 111.0 104.5 102.3 107.0 103.0 104.8 245.120 225.5 122.5 r 2017: May ��� 103.7 111.3 103.2 103.1 107.1 102.1 104.1 244.733 225.6 122.6 June r �� 103.8 111.3 104.4 101.3 106.5 103.4 104.6 244.955 225.5 122.3 July r ��� 103.6 112.2 104.1 102.3 106.6 103.0 104.9 244.786 225.5 122.2 Aug r ���� 103.2 111.8 105.4 102.8 109.0 106.0 105.0 245.519 225.6 122.5 r Sept ��� 103.2 112.2 104.8 102.9 108.1 103.0 105.9 246.819 226.2 122.7 r Oct ����� 104.8 111.1 105.3 104.4 106.7 103.5 106.2 246.663 226.3 122.8 Nov r ���� 105.3 112.6 106.0 104.2 110.2 104.2 106.5 246.669 227.0 123.2 Dec r ���� 105.8 113.3 108.0 104.2 109.8 106.4 105.4 246.524 226.2 123.6 2018: Jan r ���� 105.4 111.6 103.2 102.2 109.4 104.4 106.4 247.867 227.7 123.7 Feb r ���� 105.9 112.8 105.2 103.5 107.9 103.9 106.7 248.991 229.1 123.7 Mar r ��� 106.4 113.7 106.7 102.9 109.6 105.1 106.4 249.554 229.8 123.3 r Apr ���� 107.6 114.8 107.2 102.4 107.6 103.8 105.3 250.546 230.5 123.2 r May ��� 107.1 115.2 107.0 102.2 110.3 104.6 104.9 251.588 230.7 123.3 June p �� 107.7 ��������������� 104.7 ��������������� ��������������� 105.1 ��������������� 251.989 231.0 123.2 July p ��� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� Germany 183.9 184.1 186.9 190.8 194.6 196.3 197.2 197.3 197.7 199.7 199.9 199.9 199.2 200.3 199.9 200.1 200.3 201.0 200.8 200.7 202.8 203.1 204.0 204.0 203.8 Italy 163.9 164.5 166.3 169.7 173.1 175.7 177.3 177.7 178.6 181.7 180.9 181.3 181.9 182.1 182.3 182.3 182.8 183.9 182.6 183.4 184.1 184.1 184.9 185.1 185.6 United Kingdom 280.0 252.4 282.2 251.1 286.5 262.7 294.5 276.3 303.5 285.2 307.1 293.9 307.9 300.8 308.0 303.8 307.7 309.1 311.5 320.1 311.8 319.2 311.5 319.9 311.8 320.6 312.7 322.7 311.8 323.2 311.2 323.4 310.6 324.0 311.8 326.7 312.7 324.3 312.7 326.7 313.7 327.0 314.0 328.6 314.9 329.8 315.5 330.7 316.4 ����������������� 1 Data relate to all urban consumers. Note: See Note, p. 17, for information on U.S. industrial production series. Sources: As reported by each country, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services [Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Goods: Exports (f.a.s. value) Census basis (by end-use category) Period 2008 ��������������� 2009 ��������������� 2010 ��������������� 2011 ��������������� 2012 ��������������� 2013 ��������������� 2014 ��������������� 2015 ��������������� 2016 ��������������� 2017 ��������������� 2017: June ���� July ����� Aug ����� Sept ���� Oct ������ Nov ����� Dec ������ 2018: Jan ������ Feb ������ Mar ����� Apr ������ May r ��� June p �� BOP basis 1,308.8 1,070.3 1,290.3 1,498.9 1,562.6 1,593.7 1,635.6 1,511.4 1,457.0 1,553.4 128.6 128.5 128.6 130.7 130.9 134.3 136.8 133.8 136.7 141.0 141.2 144.9 143.2 IndusFoods, trial Total, feeds, supCensus and plies basis 1 bever- and ages materials 1,287.4 1,056.0 1,278.5 1,482.5 1,545.8 1,578.5 1,621.9 1,503.3 1,451.0 1,546.3 128.1 127.9 128.1 130.2 130.3 133.5 136.1 133.0 136.0 140.3 140.6 144.2 142.5 108.3 93.9 107.7 126.2 133.0 136.2 143.7 127.7 130.5 132.7 11.4 11.7 11.2 11.3 10.6 10.7 10.9 10.7 10.9 11.8 12.4 14.1 14.1 388.0 296.5 391.7 501.1 501.2 508.2 505.8 427.0 397.0 464.7 37.7 37.6 36.9 39.2 41.5 41.2 42.8 40.9 43.0 44.3 45.7 44.4 46.3 121.5 81.7 112.0 133.0 146.2 152.7 159.8 151.9 150.3 157.6 13.5 12.9 13.1 13.1 12.7 13.5 13.5 13.6 14.5 14.1 13.9 13.6 12.9 Balance of trade (exports minus imports) Census basis (by end-use category) Auto- Consumer Capital motive vegoods goods hicles, except parts (nonfood) autoexcept motive and enautogines motive 457.7 391.2 447.5 494.0 527.2 534.4 551.5 539.5 519.6 533.3 43.9 44.7 45.2 44.9 44.0 46.2 47.0 44.9 45.7 47.5 46.1 48.2 47.3 Services (BOP basis) Goods: Imports (customs value) 161.3 149.5 165.2 175.3 181.7 188.8 199.0 197.7 193.7 197.7 16.5 15.9 16.7 16.3 16.4 16.8 16.8 17.9 16.7 17.1 17.2 17.8 16.4 BOP basis 2,141.3 1,580.0 1,939.0 2,239.9 2,303.7 2,294.2 2,385.5 2,273.2 2,208.0 2,360.9 194.5 193.9 194.1 196.6 199.4 204.8 210.1 208.3 213.4 210.2 209.6 210.6 212.0 IndusFoods, trial Total, feeds, supCensus and plies basis 1 bever- and ages materials 2,103.6 1,559.6 1,913.9 2,208.0 2,276.3 2,268.0 2,356.4 2,248.8 2,187.6 2,342.0 192.9 192.4 192.6 195.1 198.0 203.3 208.5 206.6 211.9 208.9 208.0 208.9 210.4 89.0 81.6 91.7 107.5 110.3 115.1 125.9 127.8 130.0 137.8 11.4 11.6 11.5 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.9 11.8 12.6 12.3 12.3 12.4 12.2 779.5 462.4 603.1 755.8 730.6 681.5 667.0 486.0 443.3 507.3 41.1 40.6 40.4 41.2 42.8 44.9 45.5 46.9 47.1 46.7 47.9 47.9 48.8 BOP basis Auto- Consumer Capital motive vegoods Exports goods hicles, except parts (nonfood) autoexcept motive and enautogines motive 453.7 370.5 449.4 510.8 548.7 555.7 594.1 602.5 589.9 640.6 52.9 53.9 53.7 54.8 55.1 56.2 57.1 55.7 57.6 56.5 56.9 59.0 57.5 231.2 157.7 225.1 254.6 297.8 308.8 328.6 349.2 350.1 359.0 30.2 29.5 30.0 29.7 29.5 30.2 30.7 30.7 31.1 30.9 30.0 29.7 30.2 481.6 427.3 483.2 514.1 516.9 531.7 557.1 594.2 583.4 601.9 49.1 48.7 49.2 49.8 50.2 52.0 55.0 53.2 55.7 54.7 51.9 51.4 53.4 532.8 512.7 562.8 627.1 655.7 700.5 741.1 755.3 758.9 797.7 66.2 66.7 67.0 67.7 67.7 68.0 68.2 68.7 69.4 69.7 70.0 70.4 70.6 Imports Goods, Census basis Goods Services Goods and services 409.1 386.8 409.3 435.8 452.0 461.1 480.8 492.0 509.8 542.5 45.1 45.5 45.6 46.2 46.2 46.4 46.8 47.1 48.2 47.6 47.8 47.9 48.1 –816.2 –503.6 –635.4 –725.4 –730.4 –689.5 –734.5 –745.5 –736.6 –795.7 –64.8 –64.5 –64.5 –64.9 –67.6 –69.8 –72.4 –73.6 –76.0 –68.5 –67.4 –64.7 –67.9 123.8 125.9 153.4 191.3 203.7 239.4 260.3 263.3 249.1 255.2 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.5 21.5 21.6 21.4 21.6 21.2 22.1 22.3 22.5 22.5 –708.7 –383.8 –495.2 –549.7 –537.4 –461.1 –489.6 –498.5 –502.0 –552.3 –44.8 –44.2 –44.2 –44.4 –47.0 –49.0 –51.9 –52.9 –55.5 –47.2 –46.1 –43.2 –46.3 –832.5 –509.7 –648.7 –741.0 –741.1 –700.5 –749.9 –761.9 –751.1 –807.5 –65.9 –65.4 –65.5 –65.9 –68.5 –70.6 –73.3 –74.5 –76.7 –69.3 –68.4 –65.7 –68.8 1 Total includes ‘‘other’’ exports or imports, not shown separately. Note: BOP refers to balance of payments on international transactions basis. BOP data shown here are consistent with figures shown on pp. 36 and 37. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis). 35 U.S. International Transactions In the first quarter of 2018, the current account deficit rose to $124.1 billion from $116.1 billion in the fourth quarter. The goods and services deficit rose to $155.6 billion from $147.8 billion in the fourth quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 80 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 80 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 60 60 40 40 BALANCE ON PRIMARY INCOME 20 20 0 0 –20 –20 –40 –40 BALANCE ON SECONDARY INCOME –60 –60 BALANCE ON CURRENT ACCOUNT –80 –80 –100 –100 –120 –120 –140 –140 BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES –160 –160 –180 –180 –200 –200 –220 –220 –240 –240 2010 2009 2012 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 2017 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted] Chart 36 - Jun 2018 Current Account 1 Goods 2 Period 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2015: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2016: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2017: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2018: I p �������������� Services Exports Imports Balance on goods 1,308,795 1,070,331 1,290,279 1,498,887 1,562,630 1,593,708 1,635,563 1,511,381 1,456,957 1,553,383 384,030 385,894 377,113 364,344 353,330 361,159 371,283 371,186 381,138 382,492 387,814 401,939 411,416 2,141,287 1,580,025 1,938,950 2,239,886 2,303,749 2,294,247 2,385,480 2,273,249 2,208,008 2,360,878 577,355 574,332 569,157 552,406 539,770 546,454 556,600 565,185 579,484 582,440 584,637 614,317 631,934 –832,492 –509,694 –648,671 –740,999 –741,119 –700,539 –749,917 –761,868 –751,051 –807,495 –193,325 –188,438 –192,044 –188,062 –186,440 –185,295 –185,316 –194,000 –198,346 –199,948 –196,823 –212,378 –220,518 Exports 532,817 512,722 562,759 627,061 655,724 700,491 741,094 755,310 758,888 797,690 189,012 189,078 188,535 188,685 186,905 189,118 191,760 191,104 195,168 197,252 201,293 203,977 207,828 Imports 409,052 386,801 409,313 435,761 452,013 461,087 480,761 491,966 509,838 542,471 121,395 122,113 124,022 124,436 125,727 125,922 128,214 129,975 131,781 134,004 137,261 139,426 142,936 Balance on services 123,765 125,920 153,446 191,300 203,711 239,404 260,333 263,343 249,050 255,219 67,617 66,965 64,513 64,249 61,179 63,196 63,546 61,129 63,387 63,248 64,032 64,551 64,892 Balance on goods and services –708,726 –383,774 –495,225 –549,699 –537,408 –461,135 –489,584 –498,525 –502,001 –552,277 –125,708 –121,473 –127,531 –123,813 –125,261 –122,099 –121,770 –132,871 –134,959 –136,700 –132,791 –147,826 –155,626 Primary income receipts and payments Receipts 815,567 613,249 680,169 755,937 767,972 792,819 824,543 810,073 830,174 928,118 201,600 206,389 206,188 195,896 199,946 207,929 206,389 215,911 217,567 223,979 237,632 248,940 258,786 Payments 685,918 498,089 511,948 544,853 560,497 586,842 606,152 606,464 637,151 706,386 149,222 157,237 157,172 142,834 154,498 160,387 162,480 159,787 164,962 175,444 179,410 186,569 196,775 Balance on primary income 129,649 115,160 168,221 211,084 207,475 205,977 218,391 203,608 193,023 221,731 52,378 49,152 49,016 53,062 45,447 47,543 43,909 56,124 52,604 48,535 58,222 62,371 62,012 Balance on secondary Income 3 –102,312 –103,907 –104,261 –107,047 –96,900 –93,643 –94,006 –112,848 –123,895 –118,597 –28,270 –24,677 –31,035 –28,865 –32,087 –28,501 –31,465 –31,842 –25,355 –33,672 –28,878 –30,692 –30,491 Balance on current account –681,389 –372,521 –431,265 –445,662 –426,832 –348,801 –365,199 –407,764 –432,873 –449,142 –101,600 –96,999 –109,550 –99,616 –111,901 –103,057 –109,327 –108,589 –107,709 –121,837 –103,447 –116,148 –124,105 Current account balance as a percentage of GDP –4.6 –2.6 –2.9 –2.9 –2.6 –2.1 –2.1 –2.3 –2.3 –2.3 –2.3 –2.1 –2.4 –2.2 –2.4 –2.2 –2.3 –2.3 –2.3 –2.5 –2.1 –2.4 –2.5 1 Current and capital account statistics in the international transactions accounts differ slightly from statistics in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) because of adjustments made to convert the international statistics to national accounting concepts. A reconciliation can be found in NIPA table 4.3B. 2 Adjusted from Census data to align with concepts and definitions used to prepare the international and national economic accounts. The adjustments are necessary to supplement coverage of Census data, to eliminate duplication of transactions recorded elsewhere in the international accounts, to value transactions according to a standard definition, and for earlier years, to record transactions in the appropriate period. 3 Includes U.S. government and private transfers, such as U.S. government grants and pensions, fines and penalties, withholding taxes, personal transfers, insurance-related transfers, and other current transfers. See p. 37 for continuation of table. 36 U.S. International Transactions—Continued In the financial account, U.S. net borrowing was $180.6 billion in the first quarter of 2018, resulting from a net increase in U.S. financial assets of $254.7 billion plus a net increase in financial derivatives of $28.7 billion, less a net increase in U.S. liabilities of $464.1 billion. U.S. net borrowing was up from $31.3 billion in the fourth quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 800 800 700 700 600 600 500 500 CHANGE IN U.S. LIABILITIES 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 CHANGE IN U.S. ASSETS ABROAD1 –100 –100 –200 –200 –300 –300 –400 –400 –500 –500 2010 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1 INCLUDES FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES, NET, BEGINNING 2006. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted] Chart 37 - Jun 2018 Financial account Period Balance on capital account 1 Net U.S. acquisition of financial assets excluding financial derivatives [net increase in assets / financial outflow (+)] Total 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2015: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2016: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2017: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2018: I p �������������� Portfolio Direct investment investment assets assets Other investment assets 6,010 –317,607 343,584 –284,269 –381,770 –140 131,074 312,597 375,883 –609,662 –157 958,703 349,829 199,620 407,420 –1,186 492,530 436,615 85,365 –45,327 6,904 176,764 377,239 248,760 –453,695 –412 649,587 392,796 481,298 –221,408 –45 866,523 387,528 582,676 –100,099 –42 202,208 307,058 160,410 –258,968 –59 348,625 312,975 36,283 –2,723 24,746 1,182,749 379,222 586,695 218,522 –22 348,283 88,547 221,847 42,049 –20 46,345 92,779 113,617 –159,175 –1 –74,432 51,137 –97,440 –27,863 0 –117,988 74,594 –77,613 –113,979 –58 39,781 76,062 –64,312 29,222 0 350,387 103,425 147,012 99,761 –1 40,432 95,894 –33,346 –23,759 0 –81,975 37,593 –13,071 –107,947 –1 366,101 135,054 141,783 89,505 0 315,922 49,976 180,700 85,095 24,787 373,591 102,936 175,910 94,804 –40 127,135 91,256 88,301 –50,883 0 254,728 –119,662 365,467 8,930 Reserve assets 4 4,848 52,256 1,835 15,877 4,460 –3,099 –3,583 –6,292 2,090 –1,690 –4,159 –877 –266 –990 –1,191 189 1,642 1,450 –241 150 –61 –1,539 –7 Net U.S. incurrence of liabilities excluding financial derivatives [net increase in liabilities / financial inflow (+)] Total 462,408 325,644 1,391,042 983,522 632,034 1,052,068 1,109,443 501,121 741,529 1,537,683 429,374 181,700 –37,175 –72,777 152,172 368,537 243,723 –22,901 429,098 445,338 504,082 159,164 464,054 Direct investment liabilities Portfolio investment liabilities Other investment liabilities 341,091 161,082 264,039 263,499 250,343 288,131 251,857 509,087 494,455 354,829 243,726 116,973 69,900 78,489 158,914 186,295 130,934 18,312 112,354 97,118 107,107 38,250 97,344 523,683 357,352 820,434 311,626 747,017 511,987 697,607 213,910 231,349 799,182 107,435 243,152 –146,760 10,083 –52,832 4,783 217,768 61,630 160,111 263,170 294,275 81,626 292,084 –402,367 –192,789 306,569 408,397 –365,327 251,949 159,979 –221,876 15,725 383,671 78,214 –178,425 39,685 –161,350 46,089 177,458 –104,979 –102,843 156,633 85,050 102,701 39,288 74,626 Financial derivatives other than reserves, net transactions 32,947 –44,816 –14,076 –35,006 7,064 2,222 –54,335 –27,035 7,827 23,074 –40,197 1,701 722 10,739 10,782 608 3,437 –7,000 –5,609 9,306 18,600 777 28,678 Net lending (+) or net borrowing (–) from financial account transactions 5 –747,069 –239,386 –446,415 –525,998 –448,205 –400,259 –297,255 –325,948 –385,078 –331,860 –121,288 –133,654 –36,535 –34,471 –101,609 –17,541 –199,854 –66,073 –68,606 –120,111 –111,891 –31,252 –180,649 U.S. official reserve assets, Statistical net discrep(unadancy justed, end of period) 4 –71,690 133,275 –14,992 –79,150 –28,277 –51,046 67,989 81,859 47,855 92,536 –19,667 –36,635 73,016 65,145 10,350 85,516 –90,527 42,515 39,104 1,727 –33,231 84,936 –56,544 77,648 130,760 132,433 147,953 150,175 144,575 130,090 117,581 117,332 123,313 119,270 120,333 120,218 117,581 119,727 120,202 122,431 117,332 118,793 122,015 123,863 123,313 126,510 4 Consists of monetary gold, special drawing rights (SDRs), the U.S. reserve position in the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and other reserve assets, including foreign currencies. 5 Net lending means that U.S. residents are net suppliers of funds to foreign residents, and net borrowing means the opposite. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 37 CONTENTS TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page Gross Domestic Product ........................................................................................................................................................ 1 Real Gross Domestic Product ................................................................................................................................................ 2 Chained Price Indexes For Gross Domestic Product ............................................................................................................ 2 Gross Domestic Product and Related Price Measures: Indexes and Percent Changes ........................................................... 3 Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Gross Value Added and Price, Costs, and Profits .......................................................... 3 National Income .................................................................................................................................................................... 4 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures ............................................................................................................................ 4 Sources of Personal Income ................................................................................................................................................... 5 Disposition of Personal Income ............................................................................................................................................. 6 Real Farm Income ................................................................................................................................................................. 7 Corporate Profits ................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Real Gross Private Domestic Investment ............................................................................................................................... 9 Real Private Fixed Investment by Type .................................................................................................................................. 10 Business Investment ............................................................................................................................................................... 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force ....................................................................................................................................................... Selected Unemployment Rates .............................................................................................................................................. Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs ................................................................... Nonagricultural Employment ................................................................................................................................................ Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries ................................ Employment Cost Index—Private Industry .......................................................................................................................... Productivity and Related Data, Business and Nonfarm Business Sectors .............................................................................. 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization .................................................................................................................... 17 Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures .......................................................................... 18 New Construction ................................................................................................................................................................. 19 New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates .............................................................................................................................. 19 Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade .................................................................................................. 20 Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders .............................................................................................................. 21 PRICES Producer Prices ...................................................................................................................................................................... Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers ............................................................................................................................. Changes in Producer Prices ................................................................................................................................................... Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers .......................................................................................................... Prices Received and Paid by Farmers ..................................................................................................................................... 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock and Debt Measures .......................................................................................................................................... Components of Money Stock ................................................................................................................................................ Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base ................................................................................................................................. Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks .................................................................................................................................. Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business .............................................................................. Consumer Credit ................................................................................................................................................................... Interest Rates and Bond Yields .............................................................................................................................................. Common Stock Prices and Yields .......................................................................................................................................... 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt ..................................................................................................................................... 32 Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function ............................................................................................................ 33 Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis ................................................................................................................... 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries ........................................................................... 35 U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services .................................................................................................................... 35 U.S. International Transactions ............................................................................................................................................. 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: p Preliminary. r Revised. c Corrected. ... Not available (also, not applicable). NSA Not seasonally adjusted. 38