Full text of Economic Indicators : July 2016
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114th Congress, 2nd Session Economic Indicators JULY 2016 (Includes data available as of August 5, 2016) Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 2016 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) Senator Dan Coats, Indiana, Chairman Representative Patrick J. Tiberi, Ohio, Vice Chairman Senate House of Representatives Mike Lee, Utah Tom Cotton, Arkansas Ben Sasse, Nebraska Ted Cruz, Texas Bill Cassidy, M.D., Louisiana Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota Robert P. Casey, Jr., Pennsylvania Martin Heinrich, New Mexico Gary C. Peters, Michigan Justin Amash, Michigan Erik Paulsen, Minnesota Richard L. Hanna, New York David Schweikert, Arizona Glenn Grothman, Wisconsin Carolyn B. Maloney, New York, Ranking John Delaney, Maryland Alma S. Adams, Ph.D, North Carolina Donald S. Beyer, Jr., Virginia Brian Neale, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Jason Furman, Chairman Sandra Black, Member Jay Shambaugh, Member [Public Law 120—81st Congress; Chapter 237—1st Session] JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. R es. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled “Economic Indicators” Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled “Economic Indicators,” and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts prepared under the direction of the Mail and Multimedia Division, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Monthly issues of Economic Indicators in PDF form, and tables in Excel, are available online at: www.gpo.gov/economicindicators To subscribe to the print edition, $58.00 per year ($81.20 outside the United States), contact the U.S. Government Publishing Office at 202-512-1800, www.gpo.gov/economicindicators, or: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE MAIL STOP: IDCC WASHINGTON, DC 20402-9328 ii TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Gross Domestic Product In the second quarter of 2016, according to advance estimates, real gross domestic product (GDP) in chained (2009) dollars rose 1.2 percent (annual rate), current dollar GDP rose 3.5 percent, and the chained price index rose 2.2 percent. (Series revised.) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 18,800 18,800 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 18,400 18,400 18,000 18,000 17,600 17,600 17,200 17,200 16,800 16,800 GDP IN CURRENT DOLLARS 16,400 16,400 16,000 16,000 15,600 15,600 15,200 15,200 GDP IN CHAINED (2009) DOLLARS 14,800 14,800 14,400 14,400 14,000 14,000 13,600 13,600 13,200 13,200 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 2015 2016 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 r ������������������ 2014 r ������������������ 2015 r ������������������ 2014: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2015: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2016: I r �������������� II p ������������� Gross domestic product 13,855.9 14,477.6 14,718.6 14,418.7 14,964.4 15,517.9 16,155.3 16,691.5 17,393.1 18,036.6 17,025.2 17,285.6 17,569.4 17,692.2 17,783.6 17,998.3 18,141.9 18,222.8 18,281.6 18,437.6 Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment 9,304.0 9,750.5 10,013.6 9,847.0 10,202.2 10,689.3 11,050.6 11,361.2 11,863.4 12,283.7 11,636.1 11,800.6 11,941.0 12,075.8 12,098.9 12,240.2 12,356.9 12,438.8 12,498.0 12,688.1 2,680.6 2,643.7 2,424.8 1,878.1 2,100.8 2,239.9 2,511.7 2,706.3 2,886.5 3,056.6 2,774.0 2,861.6 2,939.8 2,970.4 3,044.6 3,049.9 3,072.1 3,059.9 3,036.8 2,972.8 Exports and imports of goods and services Net exports –770.9 –718.5 –723.1 –395.4 –512.7 –580.0 –565.7 –492.0 –508.8 –522.0 –508.4 –515.6 –485.6 –525.5 –534.7 –508.9 –523.4 –520.9 –507.4 –490.1 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Exports 1,476.3 1,664.6 1,841.9 1,587.7 1,852.3 2,106.4 2,198.2 2,276.6 2,375.3 2,264.3 2,339.1 2,388.4 2,394.7 2,379.0 2,287.8 2,298.6 2,259.1 2,211.7 2,179.0 2,207.5 Imports 2,247.3 2,383.2 2,565.0 1,983.2 2,365.0 2,686.4 2,763.8 2,768.6 2,884.1 2,786.3 2,847.4 2,904.0 2,880.3 2,904.6 2,822.4 2,807.5 2,782.5 2,732.6 2,686.3 2,697.6 Total 2,642.2 2,801.9 3,003.2 3,089.1 3,174.0 3,168.7 3,158.6 3,116.1 3,152.1 3,218.3 3,123.6 3,139.0 3,174.2 3,171.4 3,174.7 3,217.2 3,236.3 3,245.0 3,254.3 3,266.7 Total 1,002.0 1,049.8 1,155.6 1,217.7 1,303.9 1,303.5 1,292.5 1,229.5 1,218.9 1,225.0 1,218.1 1,214.3 1,230.6 1,212.5 1,218.8 1,222.1 1,225.0 1,234.0 1,233.8 1,238.9 National defense Nondefense 642.4 678.7 754.1 788.3 832.8 836.9 817.8 767.0 746.0 732.0 750.0 746.0 755.5 732.5 731.2 731.8 729.3 735.6 731.4 729.0 359.6 371.0 401.5 429.4 471.1 466.5 474.7 462.5 472.9 493.0 468.0 468.3 475.1 480.0 487.6 490.3 495.7 498.4 502.4 509.9 Chart 1 - Jul 2016 State and local 1,640.2 1,752.2 1,847.6 1,871.4 1,870.2 1,865.3 1,866.1 1,886.6 1,933.2 1,993.3 1,905.5 1,924.7 1,943.6 1,958.9 1,955.9 1,995.1 2,011.3 2,011.0 2,020.5 2,027.8 Final Addendum: Gross sales of Gross domestic domestic purchases 1 national product product 13,788.9 14,443.2 14,750.6 14,566.3 14,902.8 15,476.2 16,093.5 16,599.1 17,327.7 17,943.3 16,989.9 17,220.7 17,493.2 17,606.9 17,654.7 17,893.1 18,065.1 18,160.1 18,239.7 18,450.5 14,626.8 13,923.5 15,196.2 14,603.2 15,441.6 14,890.6 14,814.2 14,569.8 15,477.0 15,170.3 16,097.9 15,764.6 16,720.9 16,392.8 17,183.5 16,935.8 17,901.9 17,641.2 18,558.6 18,242.4 17,533.6 17,276.8 17,801.2 17,528.3 18,055.0 17,830.6 18,217.7 17,929.0 18,318.3 18,000.7 18,507.2 18,202.0 18,665.3 18,332.5 18,743.7 18,434.1 18,789.0 18,454.2 18,927.7 ����������������� 1 GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Note: GDP and related data reflect the annual revision released on July 29, 2016. See Survey of Current Business, August 2016 for details. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 1 Real Gross Domestic Product [Billions of chained (2009) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 r ������������������ 2014 r ������������������ 2015 r ������������������ 2014: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2015: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2016: I r �������������� II p ������������� Gross private domestic investment Personal Gross conChange domestic sumption Nonresi- Resiin product expendi- dential dential fixed fixed private tures investinvestinvenment ment tories 14,613.8 14,873.7 14,830.4 14,418.7 14,783.8 15,020.6 15,354.6 15,612.2 15,982.3 16,397.2 15,747.0 15,900.8 16,094.5 16,186.7 16,269.0 16,374.2 16,454.9 16,490.7 16,525.0 16,575.1 9,821.7 10,041.6 10,007.2 9,847.0 10,036.3 10,263.5 10,413.2 10,565.4 10,868.9 11,214.7 10,712.8 10,813.3 10,912.9 11,036.4 11,102.4 11,181.3 11,255.9 11,319.3 11,365.2 11,482.8 1,839.6 1,948.4 1,934.4 1,633.4 1,673.8 1,802.3 1,964.1 2,032.9 2,155.6 2,200.2 2,111.8 2,143.4 2,186.7 2,180.6 2,187.9 2,196.6 2,217.5 2,198.8 2,179.7 2,167.3 806.6 654.8 497.7 392.2 382.4 384.5 436.5 488.3 505.4 564.5 489.4 503.1 507.6 521.4 538.0 556.9 573.7 589.5 600.7 591.3 71.6 35.5 –33.7 –147.6 58.2 37.6 54.7 78.7 57.7 84.0 31.7 55.2 66.8 76.9 114.4 93.8 70.9 56.9 40.7 –8.1 Exports and imports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total –794.3 –712.6 –557.8 –395.4 –458.8 –459.4 –447.1 –404.9 –425.7 –540.0 –412.0 –427.5 –409.4 –454.0 –521.2 –524.9 –547.1 –566.6 –566.3 –556.3 1,506.8 1,646.4 1,740.8 1,587.7 1,776.6 1,898.3 1,963.2 2,031.5 2,118.3 2,120.6 2,074.1 2,118.0 2,128.7 2,152.3 2,120.6 2,135.5 2,120.4 2,105.8 2,102.0 2,109.2 2,301.0 2,359.0 2,298.6 1,983.2 2,235.4 2,357.7 2,410.2 2,436.4 2,544.0 2,660.5 2,486.1 2,545.5 2,538.1 2,606.2 2,641.8 2,660.5 2,667.6 2,672.4 2,668.2 2,665.5 2,869.3 2,914.4 2,994.8 3,089.1 3,091.4 2,997.4 2,941.6 2,857.6 2,833.0 2,883.7 2,824.3 2,825.1 2,842.6 2,840.0 2,858.0 2,880.7 2,894.4 2,901.7 2,913.2 2,906.6 National Nondefense defense Total 1,060.9 1,078.7 1,152.3 1,217.7 1,270.7 1,236.4 1,213.5 1,142.8 1,113.8 1,113.8 1,118.6 1,110.8 1,121.5 1,104.4 1,109.6 1,110.1 1,112.7 1,123.0 1,118.7 1,118.1 678.8 695.6 748.1 788.3 813.5 795.0 768.2 715.7 686.3 672.0 692.5 686.8 693.5 672.5 671.8 671.0 669.0 676.3 670.9 665.8 382.1 383.1 404.2 429.4 457.1 441.4 445.3 427.0 427.3 441.3 425.9 423.8 427.8 431.6 437.3 438.6 443.1 446.2 447.2 451.5 AddenFinal Gross dum: sales of domestic Gross domestic purchases 1 national product product State and local 1,808.8 1,836.1 1,842.4 1,871.4 1,820.8 1,761.0 1,728.1 1,714.1 1,718.1 1,768.2 1,704.8 1,713.2 1,720.1 1,734.1 1,746.9 1,768.9 1,779.9 1,777.1 1,792.6 1,786.8 14,542.3 14,836.2 14,865.7 14,566.3 14,722.2 14,979.0 15,292.3 15,521.1 15,912.9 16,300.6 15,703.8 15,833.0 16,015.6 16,099.3 16,140.9 16,267.5 16,371.7 16,422.4 16,473.5 16,571.3 15,431.6 14,688.6 15,606.8 15,005.7 15,399.9 15,004.8 14,814.2 14,569.8 15,244.9 14,970.8 15,483.9 15,241.0 15,804.3 15,562.1 16,016.9 15,822.2 16,408.9 16,192.5 16,937.8 16,570.4 16,159.6 15,961.5 16,329.7 16,106.1 16,504.1 16,316.0 16,642.1 16,386.4 16,791.3 16,453.3 16,900.1 16,545.7 17,002.6 16,614.0 17,057.2 16,668.4 17,091.5 16,668.3 17,132.6 �������������� 1 GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Note: Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2009) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. See Note, p. 1. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). Chained Price Indexes For Gross Domestic Product [Index numbers, 2009=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Period Gross domestic product 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 r ������������������ 2014 r ������������������ 2015 r ������������������ 2014: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2015: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2016: I r �������������� II p ������������� 94.812 97.340 99.218 100.000 101.226 103.315 105.220 106.917 108.838 109.999 108.140 108.714 109.178 109.321 109.307 109.922 110.268 110.498 110.635 111.242 Personal consumption expenditures Total 94.729 97.102 100.065 100.000 101.653 104.149 106.121 107.532 109.150 109.532 108.621 109.133 109.425 109.422 108.979 109.472 109.784 109.892 109.969 110.498 Goods Services 98.277 99.403 102.362 100.000 101.637 105.413 106.701 106.116 105.727 102.680 106.047 106.111 105.845 104.905 102.728 103.043 102.806 102.144 101.109 101.324 Note: See Note, p. 1. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 2 Gross private domestic investment 92.976 95.981 98.947 100.000 101.661 103.524 105.840 108.276 110.946 113.149 109.969 110.716 111.303 111.797 112.275 112.863 113.469 113.990 114.663 115.361 Nonresidential fixed 96.561 98.574 100.337 100.000 99.070 100.545 102.216 103.023 104.423 105.051 103.920 104.303 104.618 104.853 105.014 104.932 105.141 105.116 105.172 105.455 Residential fixed 103.821 105.176 103.647 100.000 99.645 100.395 101.324 106.393 112.795 115.479 111.212 111.575 113.517 114.874 114.920 114.898 115.726 116.371 116.952 118.437 Exports and imports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Exports 97.979 101.107 105.809 100.000 104.263 110.960 111.970 112.064 112.134 106.778 112.767 112.755 112.483 110.529 107.885 107.639 106.548 105.039 103.669 104.670 Imports 97.663 101.024 111.588 100.000 105.800 113.942 114.671 113.634 113.368 104.726 114.517 114.064 113.462 111.429 106.829 105.520 104.304 102.252 100.675 101.201 Total 94.448 97.319 100.286 100.000 102.614 105.422 106.512 107.581 109.431 109.979 108.888 109.320 109.726 109.790 109.845 110.093 110.096 109.881 110.286 110.807 National defense 94.633 97.572 100.809 100.000 102.365 105.274 106.466 107.167 108.699 108.923 108.310 108.619 108.941 108.927 108.853 109.062 109.010 108.765 109.015 109.503 Nondefense 94.101 96.849 99.321 100.000 103.064 105.691 106.600 108.296 110.668 111.724 109.879 110.509 111.050 111.235 111.493 111.800 111.888 111.717 112.356 112.928 State and local 90.677 95.426 100.279 100.000 102.714 105.923 107.985 110.063 112.522 112.732 111.773 112.349 112.999 112.966 111.969 112.787 113.003 113.169 112.715 113.494 Gross Domestic Product and Related Price Measures: Indexes and Percent Changes [Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Percent change from preceding period 1 Index numbers, 2009=100 Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) Gross domestic product (GDP) Period Real GDP GDP (chain-type chain-type quantity price index) index 2006 ���������������������� 2007 ���������������������� 2008 ���������������������� 2009 ���������������������� 2010 ���������������������� 2011 ���������������������� 2012 ���������������������� 2013 r �������������������� 2014 r �������������������� 2015 r �������������������� 2014: I r ���������������� II r ��������������� III r �������������� IV r �������������� 2015: I r ���������������� II r ��������������� III r �������������� IV r �������������� 2016: I r ���������������� II p ��������������� 101.353 103.156 102.855 100.000 102.532 104.174 106.491 108.277 110.844 113.721 109.212 110.279 111.622 112.262 112.832 113.562 114.121 114.370 114.608 114.955 GDP implicit price deflator 94.812 97.340 99.218 100.000 101.226 103.315 105.220 106.917 108.838 109.999 108.140 108.714 109.178 109.321 109.307 109.922 110.268 110.498 110.635 111.242 PCE PCE less food (chain-type and price index) priceenergy index 94.814 97.337 99.246 100.000 101.221 103.311 105.214 106.913 108.828 109.998 108.117 108.709 109.165 109.300 109.310 109.919 110.253 110.504 110.630 111.237 94.729 97.102 100.065 100.000 101.653 104.149 106.121 107.532 109.150 109.532 108.621 109.133 109.425 109.422 108.979 109.472 109.784 109.892 109.969 110.498 94.786 96.832 98.827 100.000 101.286 102.800 104.741 106.323 108.048 109.540 107.365 107.910 108.308 108.608 108.908 109.385 109.770 110.095 110.657 111.127 Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) Gross domestic product (GDP) Gross domestic purchases price index 94.783 97.372 100.244 100.000 101.527 103.970 105.805 107.287 109.109 109.569 108.525 109.015 109.411 109.487 109.090 109.512 109.793 109.881 109.936 110.482 GDP (current dollars) Real GDP GDP (chain-type chain-type quantity price index) index 5.8 4.5 1.7 –2.0 3.8 3.7 4.1 3.3 4.2 3.7 .6 6.3 6.7 2.8 2.1 4.9 3.2 1.8 1.3 3.5 2.7 1.8 –.3 –2.8 2.5 1.6 2.2 1.7 2.4 2.6 –1.2 4.0 5.0 2.3 2.0 2.6 2.0 .9 .8 1.2 GDP implicit price deflator 3.1 2.7 1.9 .8 1.2 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.1 1.7 2.1 1.7 .5 –.1 2.3 1.3 .8 .5 2.2 Gross domestic PCE purchases PCE food price index (chain-type lessenergy price index) and price index 3.1 2.7 2.0 .8 1.2 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.1 1.8 2.2 1.7 .5 .0 2.2 1.2 .9 .5 2.2 2.7 2.5 3.1 –.1 1.7 2.5 1.9 1.3 1.5 .3 2.0 1.9 1.1 .0 –1.6 1.8 1.1 .4 .3 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.6 2.0 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.8 1.4 1.2 2.1 1.7 3.2 2.7 2.9 –.2 1.5 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.7 .4 2.1 1.8 1.5 .3 –1.4 1.6 1.0 .3 .2 2.0 1 Quarterly percent changes are at annual rates. Note: See Note, p. 1. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). Nonfinancial Corporate Business— Gross Value Added and Price, Costs, and Profits [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Current dollars 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 r ������������������ 2014 r ������������������ 2015 r ������������������ 2013: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2014: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2015: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2016: I r �������������� Price per unit of real gross value added of nonfinancial corporate business (dollars) 1, 2 Gross value added of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars) 1 6,988.0 7,203.9 7,256.8 6,859.8 7,238.7 7,592.3 8,011.9 8,305.2 8,703.9 9,008.8 8,217.4 8,289.6 8,322.6 8,391.2 8,476.9 8,648.2 8,804.3 8,886.1 8,944.7 8,968.6 9,041.9 9,080.2 9,078.4 Chained (2009) dollars 7,406.3 7,480.5 7,383.9 6,859.8 7,240.0 7,421.5 7,720.9 7,942.1 8,253.2 8,513.9 7,841.1 7,963.0 7,950.3 8,014.0 8,066.6 8,189.2 8,328.3 8,428.8 8,434.0 8,484.4 8,539.6 8,597.5 8,639.3 Total 0.944 .963 .983 1.000 1.000 1.023 1.038 1.046 1.055 1.058 1.048 1.041 1.047 1.047 1.051 1.056 1.057 1.054 1.061 1.057 1.059 1.056 1.051 Compensation of employees (unit labor cost) 0.558 .576 .590 .596 .574 .588 .595 .598 .606 .618 .597 .595 .600 .600 .612 .606 .603 .603 .613 .617 .618 .622 .618 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments 4 Unit nonlabor cost Total 0.249 .265 .283 .299 .290 .296 .294 .293 .292 .294 .294 .291 .293 .293 .294 .292 .291 .290 .291 .291 .291 .301 .291 Consumption of fixed capital Net interest Taxes on and production miscellaneous and imports 3 payments 0.132 .139 .148 .159 .151 .154 .154 .155 .155 .156 .154 .153 .155 .156 .156 .156 .155 .155 .156 .156 .157 .157 .157 0.092 .093 .093 .099 .099 .103 .102 .103 .100 .101 .104 .102 .103 .103 .102 .101 .100 .099 .099 .099 .098 .108 .098 0.025 .033 .042 .041 .040 .039 .039 .035 .036 .037 .036 .035 .035 .035 .036 .036 .036 .036 .036 .037 .037 .037 .036 Total 0.137 .122 .110 .105 .136 .140 .149 .155 .157 .147 .157 .155 .154 .154 .146 .158 .163 .161 .156 .149 .149 .133 .142 Taxes on corporate income 0.042 .039 .031 .026 .030 .031 .035 .036 .038 .036 .036 .035 .035 .036 .038 .039 .039 .036 .039 .038 .036 .032 .036 Profits after tax 5 0.096 .083 .079 .079 .105 .109 .114 .119 .119 .111 .121 .119 .118 .118 .108 .119 .125 .125 .118 .111 .113 .101 .106 1 Estimates for nonfinancial corporate business are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). 2 The implicit price deflator for gross value added of nonfinancial corporate business divided by 100. 3 Less subsidies plus business current transfer payments. 4 Unit profits from current production. 5 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Note: See Note, p. 1. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 3 National Income [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Proprietors’ income 1 Period ComNational pensation of income employees 2006 �������������������� 12,004.8 2007 �������������������� 12,321.4 2008 �������������������� 12,427.8 2009 �������������������� 12,126.1 2010 �������������������� 12,739.5 2011 �������������������� 13,352.3 2012 �������������������� 14,061.9 2013 r ������������������ 14,444.8 2014 r ������������������ 15,153.9 2015 r ������������������ 15,665.3 2014: I r �������������� 14,773.8 II r ������������� 15,063.0 III r ������������ 15,317.1 IV r ������������ 15,461.9 2015: I r �������������� 15,501.1 II r ������������� 15,599.2 III r ������������ 15,724.4 IV r ������������ 15,836.2 2016: I r �������������� 15,848.2 II p ������������� �������������� 7,502.3 7,898.3 8,078.3 7,787.0 7,961.4 8,269.0 8,609.9 8,842.4 9,253.4 9,693.1 9,108.3 9,173.8 9,299.6 9,432.1 9,502.3 9,637.6 9,740.0 9,892.4 9,895.9 9,960.5 Rental income of persons with capital conNonfarm sumption adjustment Farm 36.0 38.1 47.0 35.5 46.0 75.5 61.6 87.8 68.5 39.9 70.0 78.9 64.1 61.0 38.4 38.7 44.6 38.1 32.3 32.7 1,017.7 941.1 979.5 937.5 986.7 1,068.1 1,179.8 1,197.0 1,269.2 1,336.8 1,234.0 1,257.6 1,280.8 1,304.5 1,312.7 1,327.4 1,344.4 1,362.8 1,371.6 1,377.5 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Net interest and Capital miscelconsumption laneous Inventory adjust- payments valuation ment adjustment Taxes on production and imports Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total Total Profits before tax 207.5 1,646.5 1,815.7 1,851.4 –35.7 189.4 1,529.0 1,708.9 1,748.4 –39.5 262.1 1,285.1 1,345.5 1,382.4 –37.0 333.7 1,397.0 1,479.2 1,472.6 6.7 402.8 1,746.4 1,799.7 1,840.7 –41.0 485.3 1,816.6 1,738.5 1,806.8 –68.3 525.3 1,998.2 2,116.6 2,130.8 –14.2 567.1 2,032.9 2,159.4 2,156.1 3.3 606.1 2,152.1 2,265.9 2,262.9 3.0 659.6 2,088.1 2,192.4 2,137.6 54.8 590.1 2,024.6 2,136.5 2,190.0 –53.5 599.6 2,174.3 2,287.0 2,291.8 –4.8 611.3 2,193.6 2,308.9 2,286.1 22.8 623.3 2,215.8 2,331.2 2,283.6 47.6 636.5 2,177.0 2,284.5 2,203.1 81.4 656.6 2,112.4 2,214.9 2,208.1 6.8 668.1 2,095.4 2,200.5 2,140.8 59.7 677.3 1,967.5 2,069.8 1,998.4 71.4 692.8 2,033.5 2,139.2 2,078.0 61.2 702.3 �������������� �������������� �������������� �������������� –169.2 –179.9 –60.4 –82.2 –53.3 78.1 –118.5 –126.6 –113.9 –104.3 –111.9 –112.7 –115.3 –115.5 –107.5 –102.5 –105.2 –102.2 –105.7 –105.8 580.9 663.4 693.4 563.4 489.4 488.1 527.7 504.6 533.7 524.1 515.7 529.6 547.5 542.0 546.2 521.5 525.2 503.7 493.1 469.1 Business Less: current Subsidies transfer payments 991.9 1,034.6 1,041.9 1,026.1 1,057.1 1,102.6 1,132.1 1,174.9 1,210.2 1,237.6 1,192.2 1,206.0 1,217.0 1,225.7 1,227.6 1,235.8 1,239.9 1,247.3 1,249.8 1,262.1 51.5 54.6 52.6 58.3 55.9 60.1 58.0 59.3 56.7 56.6 57.4 56.9 56.7 55.9 55.6 56.2 57.4 57.3 58.3 59.6 82.6 98.6 114.4 124.9 128.5 131.5 104.7 118.4 137.6 161.4 116.3 120.5 180.1 133.6 134.0 143.7 143.2 224.5 158.1 165.9 Current surplus of government enterprises –9.3 –16.4 –21.2 –20.6 –22.9 –24.5 –19.3 –20.9 –20.2 –18.8 –20.0 –20.4 –20.3 –20.3 –18.0 –18.2 –18.9 –20.1 –20.5 –23.2 1 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Note: See Note, p. 1. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). Real Personal Consumption Expenditures [Billions of chained (2009) dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Goods Period Total personal consumption expenditures 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 r ������������������ 2014 r ������������������ 2015 r ������������������ 2014: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2015: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2016: I r �������������� II p ������������� 9,821.7 10,041.6 10,007.2 9,847.0 10,036.3 10,263.5 10,413.2 10,565.4 10,868.9 11,214.7 10,712.8 10,813.3 10,912.9 11,036.4 11,102.4 11,181.3 11,255.9 11,319.3 11,365.2 11,482.8 Services Durable Total goods 3,292.5 3,381.8 3,297.8 3,198.4 3,308.7 3,411.8 3,504.3 3,613.5 3,755.4 3,907.4 3,678.2 3,738.7 3,778.6 3,826.2 3,851.5 3,892.1 3,932.6 3,953.4 3,964.7 4,030.4 Total durable goods 1 1,091.5 1,141.7 1,083.2 1,023.3 1,085.7 1,151.5 1,236.2 1,312.7 1,401.1 1,498.1 1,347.8 1,389.7 1,418.8 1,448.1 1,462.9 1,489.8 1,512.4 1,527.3 1,524.9 1,555.8 Nondurable Motor vehicles and parts 385.1 392.8 340.8 317.1 323.4 333.8 359.1 375.7 399.5 419.4 383.2 396.6 405.2 413.0 413.6 419.9 422.9 421.1 411.8 416.4 Total nondurable goods 1 2,202.2 2,239.3 2,214.7 2,175.1 2,223.5 2,263.2 2,277.5 2,316.1 2,376.4 2,439.3 2,347.7 2,370.0 2,383.5 2,404.3 2,415.8 2,431.8 2,451.3 2,458.4 2,471.1 2,507.3 Food and beverages purchased for offpremises consumption Gasoline and other energy goods Total services 1 Household consumption expenditures 780.8 791.3 781.9 770.0 786.5 795.1 795.7 795.2 811.7 811.3 808.4 812.3 813.0 812.9 812.2 811.9 810.8 810.5 816.8 833.9 297.4 296.8 283.4 284.5 282.2 274.3 270.0 275.5 276.5 286.3 276.5 274.8 275.3 279.5 284.7 284.2 288.4 287.7 291.8 290.9 6,526.6 6,656.4 6,708.6 6,648.5 6,727.6 6,851.4 6,908.1 6,951.3 7,114.2 7,310.3 7,034.4 7,075.4 7,135.3 7,211.4 7,252.4 7,291.8 7,327.2 7,369.8 7,403.9 7,458.8 6,291.8 6,415.2 6,435.1 6,372.5 6,449.3 6,575.9 6,614.3 6,651.4 6,817.3 7,013.3 6,734.0 6,777.6 6,839.5 6,918.3 6,960.9 7,000.2 7,027.7 7,064.4 7,098.2 7,147.9 Housing and utilities 1,823.2 1,840.8 1,860.1 1,881.0 1,904.3 1,928.0 1,929.1 1,937.9 1,964.8 1,997.0 1,962.6 1,960.1 1,960.2 1,976.0 1,991.8 1,996.0 2,004.5 1,995.5 1,999.0 2,019.8 Health care 1,525.2 1,563.2 1,598.8 1,627.4 1,649.2 1,690.3 1,727.0 1,734.9 1,790.6 1,886.1 1,746.4 1,774.0 1,803.0 1,839.2 1,859.3 1,877.4 1,895.2 1,912.4 1,938.7 1,956.9 Financial services and insurance 720.1 742.5 737.4 719.0 733.9 747.2 706.4 707.4 717.0 718.8 712.1 714.4 721.4 719.9 718.2 718.8 717.2 720.9 716.7 717.9 Addendum: Personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy 2 Retail sales of new passenger cars and light trucks (millions of units) 8,528.1 8,734.2 8,730.5 8,577.4 8,746.1 8,980.4 9,143.9 9,284.6 9,570.8 9,908.7 9,406.2 9,516.3 9,623.9 9,736.7 9,791.5 9,875.1 9,944.6 10,023.7 10,061.0 10,145.5 16.5 16.1 13.2 10.4 11.6 12.7 14.4 15.5 16.4 17.4 15.9 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.7 17.8 17.3 17.1 1 Includes other items, not shown separately. 2 Food consists of food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption; food services, which include purchased meals and beverages, are not classified as food. Note: Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2009) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. See Note, p. 1. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 4 Sources of Personal Income Personal income rose $29.3 billion (annual rate) in June, following an increase of $27.0 billion in May. Wages and salaries rose $25.4 billion in June, following an increase of $14.2 billion in May. (Series revised.) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 18,000 16,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 18,000 16,000 14,000 14,000 12,000 12,000 TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME 10,000 10,000 9,000 9,000 8,000 8,000 WAGES AND SALARIES 7,000 7,000 6,000 6,000 5,000 5,000 OTHER INCOME 4,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 PERSONAL CURRENT TRANSFER RECEIPTS 2,000 2,000 1,000 1,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 2016 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Compensation of employees Period 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 r ������������������ 2014 r ������������������ 2015 r ������������������ 2015: June r ������� July r �������� Aug r ��������� Sept r �������� Oct r ���������� Nov r ��������� Dec r ��������� 2016: Jan r ��������� Feb r ��������� Mar r �������� Apr r ��������� May r �������� June p ������� Total personal income 11,393.9 12,000.2 12,502.2 12,094.8 12,477.1 13,254.5 13,915.1 14,073.7 14,809.7 15,458.5 15,469.2 15,517.4 15,563.6 15,587.4 15,647.6 15,685.3 15,737.7 15,741.0 15,723.0 15,765.1 15,826.7 15,853.7 15,883.0 Total 7,502.3 7,898.3 8,078.3 7,787.0 7,961.4 8,269.0 8,609.9 8,842.4 9,253.4 9,693.1 9,670.6 9,705.3 9,748.0 9,766.8 9,842.4 9,897.0 9,937.9 9,921.5 9,878.7 9,887.5 9,937.1 9,956.6 9,987.9 Wages and salaries Supplements to wages and salaries 6,057.4 6,395.2 6,531.9 6,251.4 6,377.5 6,633.2 6,930.3 7,116.7 7,476.3 7,854.8 7,836.2 7,865.3 7,901.3 7,915.2 7,982.1 8,028.8 8,063.0 8,042.4 7,998.3 8,002.4 8,044.8 8,059.0 8,084.4 1,444.9 1,503.1 1,546.4 1,535.6 1,583.9 1,635.9 1,679.6 1,725.8 1,777.1 1,838.2 1,834.4 1,840.0 1,846.6 1,851.6 1,860.3 1,868.2 1,874.9 1,879.1 1,880.4 1,885.0 1,892.4 1,897.6 1,903.5 Proprietors’ income 1 Farm 36.0 38.1 47.0 35.5 46.0 75.5 61.6 87.8 68.5 39.9 41.5 43.0 44.6 46.2 42.3 38.1 33.9 33.1 32.3 31.5 32.1 32.7 33.3 Nonfarm 1,017.7 941.1 979.5 937.5 986.7 1,068.1 1,179.8 1,197.0 1,269.2 1,336.8 1,333.8 1,343.5 1,342.9 1,346.8 1,357.1 1,357.3 1,374.2 1,372.7 1,370.3 1,371.8 1,375.5 1,374.4 1,382.6 Personal income receipts on assets Rental income of persons 2 207.5 189.4 262.1 333.7 402.8 485.3 525.3 567.1 606.1 659.6 661.8 664.7 668.1 671.5 675.1 677.7 679.1 685.7 692.8 699.9 700.3 701.9 704.7 Total 1,938.4 2,166.6 2,167.1 1,818.0 1,739.6 1,913.9 2,123.8 2,056.1 2,227.0 2,253.8 2,282.2 2,278.0 2,276.0 2,271.4 2,250.3 2,235.1 2,221.1 2,230.9 2,230.0 2,246.7 2,247.4 2,249.2 2,237.9 Personal interest income 1,214.7 1,350.1 1,361.6 1,264.3 1,195.0 1,231.6 1,288.8 1,261.6 1,300.9 1,302.7 1,338.8 1,340.1 1,337.4 1,330.8 1,309.0 1,291.6 1,278.3 1,287.2 1,296.1 1,304.9 1,300.5 1,296.0 1,291.5 Personal dividend income 723.7 816.5 805.4 553.7 544.6 682.2 834.9 794.4 926.1 951.1 943.3 937.9 938.5 940.6 941.3 943.5 942.7 943.7 934.0 941.7 946.9 953.2 946.4 Personal current transfer receipts 3 1,614.6 1,728.1 1,956.6 2,147.5 2,324.7 2,360.5 2,366.3 2,428.0 2,540.4 2,678.6 2,680.8 2,687.5 2,693.4 2,695.5 2,699.4 2,705.0 2,720.1 2,730.8 2,746.2 2,754.9 2,766.4 2,772.5 2,773.0 Less:5 - Jul 2016 Chart Contributions for government social insurance, domestic 922.6 961.4 988.2 964.4 984.1 917.8 951.6 1,104.6 1,154.9 1,203.5 1,201.6 1,204.8 1,209.4 1,210.7 1,218.9 1,224.8 1,228.7 1,233.8 1,227.3 1,227.2 1,232.2 1,233.6 1,236.5 1 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 2 With capital consumption adjustment. 3 Consists mainly of social insurance benefits to persons. Note: Data reflect annual revisions released on August 2, 2016. For details, see Survey of Current Business, August 2016. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 5 Disposition of Personal Income According to advance estimates, per capita disposable personal income in chained (2009) dollars rose 0.5 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016. (Series revised.) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 14,000 13,500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 14,000 13,500 13,000 13,000 12,500 12,500 DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 12,000 12,000 11,500 11,500 11,000 11,000 SAVING 10,500 10,500 PERSONAL OUTLAYS 10,000 10,000 9,500 9,500 9,000 9,000 DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 44,000 42,000 DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 44,000 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 42,000 CURRENT DOLLARS 40,000 40,000 38,000 38,000 36,000 36,000 CHAINED (2009) DOLLARS 34,000 34,000 32,000 32,000 30,000 30,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Personal income Less: Personal current taxes Equals: Disposable personal income 11,393.9 12,000.2 12,502.2 12,094.8 12,477.1 13,254.5 13,915.1 14,073.7 14,809.7 15,458.5 1,357.1 1,493.2 1,507.8 1,152.3 1,239.3 1,453.2 1,511.4 1,677.8 1,787.0 1,938.7 10,036.9 10,507.0 10,994.4 10,942.5 11,237.9 11,801.4 12,403.7 12,395.8 13,022.7 13,519.8 2016 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Less: Personal outlays 1 Equals: Personal saving Disposable personal income in billions of chained (2009) dollars Per capita disposable personal income Current dollars Billions of dollars 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 r ������������������ 2014 r ������������������ 2015 r ������������������ 2015 Chained (2009) dollars Per capita personal consumption expenditures Current dollars Chained (2009) dollars Dollars 9,705.5 10,197.2 10,457.7 10,275.1 10,607.9 11,091.2 11,457.0 11,775.7 12,296.7 12,736.2 331.4 309.8 536.7 667.4 630.0 710.1 946.7 620.1 726.0 783.6 10,595.4 10,820.6 10,987.3 10,942.5 11,055.1 11,331.2 11,688.3 11,527.6 11,931.0 12,343.3 33,589 34,826 36,101 35,616 36,274 37,804 39,441 39,129 40,794 42,026 Chart 6 - Jul 2016 Percent Saving change as in real percent per capita of disposable disposable personal personal income income Population, including Armed Forces overseas (thousands) 2 Percent 35,458 35,866 36,078 35,616 35,684 36,298 37,166 36,388 37,374 38,368 31,136 32,319 32,881 32,050 32,931 34,242 35,138 35,863 37,162 38,183 32,868 33,284 32,860 32,050 32,395 32,878 33,112 33,351 34,047 34,860 3.0 1.2 .6 –1.3 .2 1.7 2.4 –2.1 2.7 2.7 3.3 2.9 4.9 6.1 5.6 6.0 7.6 5.0 5.6 5.8 298,818 301,696 304,543 307,240 309,807 312,169 314,490 316,796 319,233 321,704 36,837 37,251 37,545 37,859 37,980 38,277 38,504 38,709 38,850 38,894 36,557 37,008 37,369 37,711 37,718 38,091 38,374 38,547 38,664 39,184 33,656 33,912 34,151 34,465 34,611 34,796 34,955 35,078 35,160 35,462 3.8 4.6 3.2 3.4 1.3 3.2 2.4 2.1 1.5 .5 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.1 5.5 318,301 318,866 319,544 320,222 320,771 321,337 322,015 322,693 323,242 323,808 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 2014: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2015: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2016: I r �������������� II p ������������� 14,487.2 14,718.1 14,927.5 15,106.2 15,185.9 15,401.9 15,556.1 15,690.2 15,743.0 15,854.4 1,751.4 1,755.6 1,800.0 1,840.9 1,909.4 1,937.2 1,944.4 1,963.8 1,933.3 1,938.4 12,735.8 12,962.4 13,127.4 13,265.3 13,276.5 13,464.7 13,611.7 13,726.4 13,809.8 13,916.0 12,059.7 12,228.2 12,375.0 12,524.0 12,540.9 12,691.2 12,813.2 12,899.6 12,961.9 13,152.9 676.1 734.2 752.5 741.2 735.6 773.5 798.5 826.8 847.8 763.1 11,725.3 11,878.0 11,997.2 12,123.4 12,183.0 12,299.9 12,398.9 12,491.0 12,558.1 12,594.1 40,012 40,652 41,082 41,425 41,389 41,902 42,270 42,537 42,723 42,976 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, personal interest payments (nonmortgage), and personal current transfer payments. 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Note: See Note, p.1. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). 6 Real Farm Income According to the preliminary forecast for 2016, gross farm income in chained (2009) dollars is forecast to be $385.0 billion and net farm income to be $48.9 billion. BILLIONS OF CHAINED (2009) DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF CHAINED (2009) DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 520 480 440 520 480 440 400 400 GROSS FARM INCOME 360 360 320 320 280 280 240 240 200 200 160 160 120 120 NET FARM INCOME 80 80 60 60 40 40 2007 2008 2010 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 2015 2016 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of chained (2009) dollars] Chart 7 - Feb 2016 Income of farm operators from farming 1 Gross farm income Year Value of agricultural sector production Total 1997 ��������������������������������������������������� 1998 ��������������������������������������������������� 1999 ��������������������������������������������������� 2000 ��������������������������������������������������� 2001 ��������������������������������������������������� 2002 ��������������������������������������������������� 2003 ��������������������������������������������������� 2004 ��������������������������������������������������� 2005 ��������������������������������������������������� 2006 ��������������������������������������������������� 2007 ��������������������������������������������������� 2008 ��������������������������������������������������� 2009 ��������������������������������������������������� 2010 ��������������������������������������������������� 2011 ��������������������������������������������������� 2012 ��������������������������������������������������� 2013 ��������������������������������������������������� 2014 ��������������������������������������������������� 2015 ��������������������������������������������������� 2016 ��������������������������������������������������� Crops 2, 3 Total 304.8 294.7 293.4 295.1 298.4 271.1 298.3 330.9 324.5 306.0 348.8 367.4 336.5 352.2 406.9 427.5 452.0 442.4 397.6 385.0 295.2 279.0 266.6 266.8 271.6 256.5 279.2 316.3 298.0 289.4 336.6 355.1 324.3 339.9 396.8 417.4 441.7 433.4 388.0 372.6 144.1 129.4 115.9 116.0 113.5 115.1 125.2 140.4 124.3 125.2 155.2 175.2 164.6 166.1 192.9 202.3 218.1 188.3 168.5 163.8 Animals and animal products 3 123.3 119.3 118.9 121.0 127.0 109.9 121.1 139.4 137.5 125.9 142.2 140.5 119.5 138.5 158.4 160.7 169.2 197.6 173.0 162.0 Farm-related income 4 27.8 30.3 31.8 29.8 31.1 31.5 33.0 36.5 36.1 38.3 39.2 39.4 40.2 35.3 45.4 54.3 54.4 47.6 46.5 46.8 Direct Federal Government payments 9.6 15.7 26.9 28.4 26.8 14.6 19.1 14.6 26.5 16.7 12.2 12.3 12.2 12.2 10.1 10.1 10.3 9.0 9.6 12.4 Production expenses Net farm income 239.1 235.0 233.9 233.2 232.8 225.1 228.0 232.8 238.9 245.5 276.9 288.6 274.3 276.0 296.6 335.8 336.7 359.1 346.2 336.1 65.7 59.7 59.6 61.9 65.5 46.0 70.3 98.1 85.6 60.6 71.9 78.8 62.3 76.1 110.3 91.7 115.3 83.3 51.4 48.9 1 The GDP chain-type price index is used to convert the current-dollar statistics to 2009=100 equivalents. 2 Crop receipts include proceeds received from commodities placed under Commodity Credit Corporation loans. 3 The value of production equates to the sum of cash receipts, home consumption, and the value of the change in inventories. 4 Includes income from forest products sold, the gross imputed rental value of farm dwellings, machine hire and custom work, and other sources of farm income such as commodity insurance indemnities. Note: Data for 2015 and 2016 are forecasts. Source: Department of Agriculture (Economic Research Service). 7 Corporate Profits In the first quarter of 2016, according to revised estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $79.6 billion (annual rate) and profits after tax rose $127.1 billion. (Series revised.) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2,600 2,500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2,600 2,500 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 2,400 2,400 PROFITS BEFORE TAX 2,300 2,300 2,200 2,200 2,100 2,100 2,000 2,000 1,900 1,900 1,800 1,800 1,700 1,700 1,600 1,600 PROFITS AFTER TAX 1,500 1,500 1,400 1,400 1,300 1,300 1,200 1,200 1,100 1,100 1,000 1,000 900 900 800 800 700 700 600 600 UNDISTRIBUTED PROFITS 500 500 400 400 300 300 TAXES ON CORPORATE INCOME 200 200 100 100 0 0 –100 –200 –100 –200 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment 1 Profits after tax Domestic industries Period Total 2 Profits before tax Nonfinancial Total Financial Total 3 Manufacturing Utilities Wholesale Taxes on corporate income Total Retail 2006 �������������������� 1,815.7 1,559.6 415.1 1,144.4 349.7 55.1 105.9 132.5 1,851.4 473.4 1,378.1 2007 �������������������� 1,708.9 1,355.5 301.5 1,054.0 321.9 49.5 103.2 119.0 1,748.4 445.5 1,302.9 2008 �������������������� 1,345.5 938.8 95.4 843.4 240.6 30.1 90.6 80.3 1,382.4 309.1 1,073.3 2009 �������������������� 1,479.2 1,122.0 362.9 759.2 171.4 23.8 89.3 108.7 1,472.6 269.4 1,203.1 2010 �������������������� 1,799.7 1,404.5 406.3 998.2 287.6 30.3 102.4 118.6 1,840.7 370.6 1,470.1 2011 �������������������� 1,738.5 1,316.6 375.9 940.7 298.1 9.8 94.4 114.3 1,806.8 379.1 1,427.7 2012 �������������������� 2,116.6 1,706.3 479.0 1,227.2 395.7 12.5 135.3 154.1 2,130.8 447.6 1,683.2 2013 r ������������������ 2,159.4 1,747.6 429.4 1,318.2 429.6 26.9 142.7 154.5 2,156.1 467.7 1,688.4 2014 r ������������������ 2,265.9 1,854.9 480.3 1,374.7 449.8 33.3 146.5 167.8 2,262.9 532.7 1,730.1 r 2015 ������������������ 2,192.4 1,806.6 493.2 1,313.4 412.7 6.7 150.0 178.7 2,137.6 553.8 1,583.8 2014: I r �������������� 2,136.5 1,722.9 469.2 1,253.7 384.7 40.3 121.7 152.2 2,190.0 532.2 1,657.8 r II ������������� 2,287.0 1,885.5 515.7 1,369.8 474.6 28.9 139.4 164.0 2,291.8 558.4 1,733.3 r III ������������ 2,308.9 1,886.5 446.7 1,439.8 464.4 31.1 170.1 169.2 2,286.1 528.2 1,758.0 r IV ������������ 2,331.2 1,924.9 489.4 1,435.4 475.4 33.0 155.1 185.7 2,283.6 512.2 1,771.5 r 2015: I �������������� 2,284.5 1,895.0 507.9 1,387.1 456.6 24.1 148.3 188.7 2,203.1 566.4 1,636.7 r II ������������� 2,214.9 1,832.3 504.2 1,328.1 436.4 9.4 142.6 173.5 2,208.1 543.8 1,664.3 r III ������������ 2,200.5 1,826.0 489.1 1,336.9 447.0 4.7 150.3 177.3 2,140.8 530.0 1,610.8 IV r ������������ 2,069.8 1,673.3 471.8 1,201.5 310.8 –11.2 158.7 175.5 1,998.4 574.9 1,423.4 r 2016: I �������������� 2,139.2 1,769.6 479.1 1,290.5 394.4 4.1 153.9 185.3 2,078.0 527.5 1,550.5 II p ������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� 1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 2 Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. 3 Includes industries not shown separately. Note: Data by industry are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). See Note, p. 1. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 8 Net dividends Chart 8 - Jul 2016 Inventory Undistrib- valuation adjustment uted profits 726.0 652.1 –35.7 818.9 484.0 –39.5 808.6 264.7 –37.0 574.6 628.5 6.7 564.0 906.2 –41.0 703.7 724.0 –68.3 859.4 823.8 –14.2 929.4 759.0 3.3 970.6 759.6 3.0 971.4 612.4 54.8 938.7 719.1 –53.5 970.0 763.4 –4.8 979.8 778.1 22.8 993.8 777.6 47.6 989.7 646.9 81.4 963.0 701.2 6.8 976.8 634.0 59.7 956.0 467.5 71.4 963.3 587.2 61.2 957.4 ��������������� ����������������� Real Gross Private Domestic Investment In the second quarter of 2016, according to advance estimates, nonresidential fixed investment in chained (2009) dollars fell $12.4 billion (annual rate) and residential investment fell $9.4 billion. Inventories fell $8.1 billion, following an increase of $40.7 billion in the first quarter. (Series revised.) BILLIONS OF CHAINED (2009) DOLLARS 3,000 BILLIONS OF CHAINED (2009) DOLLARS 3,000 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 2,800 2,800 2,600 2,600 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 2,400 2,400 2,200 2,200 2,000 2,000 1,800 1,800 1,600 1,600 NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT 600 600 400 400 200 200 CHANGE IN PRIVATE INVENTORIES 0 0 –200 –200 –400 –400 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of chained (2009) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Chart 9 - Jul 2016 Fixed investment Period 2006 ��������������������������������������������������� 2007 ��������������������������������������������������� 2008 ��������������������������������������������������� 2009 ��������������������������������������������������� 2010 ��������������������������������������������������� 2011 ��������������������������������������������������� 2012 ��������������������������������������������������� 2013 r ������������������������������������������������� 2014 r ������������������������������������������������� 2015 r ������������������������������������������������� 2014: I r ��������������������������������������������� II r �������������������������������������������� III r ������������������������������������������� IV r ������������������������������������������� 2015: I r ��������������������������������������������� II r �������������������������������������������� III r ������������������������������������������� IV r ������������������������������������������� 2016: I r ��������������������������������������������� II p �������������������������������������������� Gross private domestic investment 2,730.0 2,644.1 2,396.0 1,878.1 2,120.4 2,230.4 2,465.7 2,616.5 2,733.6 2,869.0 2,646.4 2,717.5 2,776.3 2,794.1 2,860.8 2,867.7 2,882.2 2,865.4 2,841.5 2,769.6 Change in private inventories Nonresidential Total 2,662.5 2,609.6 2,432.6 2,025.7 2,056.2 2,186.7 2,400.4 2,521.4 2,660.6 2,767.8 2,600.5 2,646.1 2,693.4 2,702.3 2,727.2 2,756.0 2,794.5 2,793.3 2,786.7 2,764.4 Total 1,839.6 1,948.4 1,934.4 1,633.4 1,673.8 1,802.3 1,964.1 2,032.9 2,155.6 2,200.2 2,111.8 2,143.4 2,186.7 2,180.6 2,187.9 2,196.6 2,217.5 2,198.8 2,179.7 2,167.3 Structures 451.5 509.0 540.2 438.2 366.3 374.7 423.1 428.8 472.9 452.1 467.0 475.4 472.2 477.0 461.5 458.4 453.4 435.1 435.2 426.3 Equipment 870.8 898.3 836.1 644.3 746.7 847.9 939.2 982.3 1,035.7 1,072.5 1,011.3 1,027.4 1,064.4 1,039.9 1,063.2 1,062.3 1,085.7 1,078.6 1,052.0 1,042.6 Intellectual property products 517.5 542.4 558.8 550.9 561.3 581.3 603.8 624.5 648.6 680.0 634.7 641.7 652.8 665.1 666.5 679.5 683.1 690.7 697.1 703.2 Residential 806.6 654.8 497.7 392.2 382.4 384.5 436.5 488.3 505.4 564.5 489.4 503.1 507.6 521.4 538.0 556.9 573.7 589.5 600.7 591.3 Total Nonfarm 71.6 35.5 –33.7 –147.6 58.2 37.6 54.7 78.7 57.7 84.0 31.7 55.2 66.8 76.9 114.4 93.8 70.9 56.9 40.7 –8.1 75.4 36.5 –35.0 –146.0 65.9 36.6 72.7 73.0 62.2 88.1 36.4 59.5 70.3 82.4 117.7 98.0 73.9 62.9 47.5 1.6 Note: See p. 10 for further detail on fixed investment by type. Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2009) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. See Note, p. 1. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 9 Real Private Fixed Investment by Type [Billions of chained (2009) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nonresidential Equipment Total fixed investment Period 2006 ������������ 2007 ������������ 2008 ������������ 2009 ������������ 2010 ������������ 2011 ������������ 2012 ������������ 2013 r ���������� 2014 r ���������� 2015 r ���������� 2014: I r ������ II r ����� III r ���� IV r ���� 2015: I r ������ II r ����� III r ���� IV r ���� 2016: I r ������ II p ����� Residential Total nonresidential 2,662.5 2,609.6 2,432.6 2,025.7 2,056.2 2,186.7 2,400.4 2,521.4 2,660.6 2,767.8 2,600.5 2,646.1 2,693.4 2,702.3 2,727.2 2,756.0 2,794.5 2,793.3 2,786.7 2,764.4 Intellectual property products Information processing equipment Structures 1,839.6 1,948.4 1,934.4 1,633.4 1,673.8 1,802.3 1,964.1 2,032.9 2,155.6 2,200.2 2,111.8 2,143.4 2,186.7 2,180.6 2,187.9 2,196.6 2,217.5 2,198.8 2,179.7 2,167.3 Total 2 451.5 509.0 540.2 438.2 366.3 374.7 423.1 428.8 472.9 452.1 467.0 475.4 472.2 477.0 461.5 458.4 453.4 435.1 435.2 426.3 Computers and peripheral equipment 1 Total 870.8 898.3 836.1 644.3 746.7 847.9 939.2 982.3 1,035.7 1,072.5 1,011.3 1,027.4 1,064.4 1,039.9 1,063.2 1,062.3 1,085.7 1,078.6 1,052.0 1,042.6 250.9 279.9 281.0 256.1 281.4 285.9 303.1 317.7 326.0 338.7 318.9 332.0 320.7 332.4 332.1 327.7 347.1 348.1 345.5 340.3 ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ Other 187.5 207.9 204.2 179.3 196.8 202.8 214.5 228.9 236.3 249.2 231.8 242.2 230.2 241.0 244.6 237.4 253.8 261.1 257.6 250.3 Industrial Transportation equipequipment ment 199.1 205.3 195.5 152.1 151.3 183.3 199.8 196.7 203.5 207.3 199.2 204.4 208.2 202.4 202.7 208.9 206.3 211.5 209.4 215.4 Total 2 212.6 203.6 156.9 70.6 136.9 183.0 218.9 243.0 270.9 302.2 258.3 263.6 283.7 278.1 298.2 297.5 308.9 304.0 293.7 286.9 Structures Software Research and development 3 230.3 244.2 256.2 256.8 254.2 271.8 286.6 295.5 313.1 333.1 303.5 309.5 316.8 322.5 329.2 334.0 333.3 336.0 342.2 345.9 215.0 227.9 235.5 229.0 234.4 236.7 242.9 254.1 261.2 270.2 256.9 258.3 262.0 267.5 262.4 269.5 272.4 276.6 277.5 280.8 517.5 542.4 558.8 550.9 561.3 581.3 603.8 624.5 648.6 680.0 634.7 641.7 652.8 665.1 666.5 679.5 683.1 690.7 697.1 703.2 Total residential 2 806.6 654.8 497.7 392.2 382.4 384.5 436.5 488.3 505.4 564.5 489.4 503.1 507.6 521.4 538.0 556.9 573.7 589.5 600.7 591.3 Total 2 796.3 644.9 488.4 383.9 373.6 375.3 427.1 478.1 494.5 552.8 478.9 492.3 496.6 510.2 526.5 545.2 561.8 577.4 588.3 578.9 Single family 390.7 283.7 178.2 105.3 114.4 109.2 132.1 161.9 170.9 200.7 165.8 170.1 169.1 178.6 185.7 196.0 207.2 214.1 211.0 202.0 1 Because computers exhibit rapid changes in prices relative to other prices in the economy, the chained-dollar estimates should not be used to measure the component’s relative importance or its contribution to the growth rate of more aggregate series. The quantity index for computers can be used to accurately measure the real growth rate of this series. For information on this component, see Survey of Current Business Table 5.3.1 (for growth rates), Table 5.3.2 (for contributions), and Table 5.3.3 (for quantity indexes). 2 Includes other items, not shown separately. 3 Research and development investment excludes expenditures for software development. Note: Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2009) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. See Note, p. 1. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). Business Investment [Billions of dollars] Capital expenditures By industry Period Total capital expenditures Forestry, Total fishing, by and agri- Mining industry cultural services ConManu- WholeUtilities struction sale facturing trade Retail trade TransportaFinance tion Informaand and tion insurwareance housing ProfesReal sional, estate scienand tific, rental and and technical leasing services Health care and social assistance Other 1 For companies without employees For companies with employees 2000 �������� 2001 �������� 2002 �������� 2003 �������� 2004 �������� 2005 �������� 2006 �������� 2007 �������� 2008 �������� 2009 �������� 2010 �������� 2011 �������� 2012 �������� 2013 �������� 2014 p ������� 1,161.0 1,109.0 997.9 975.0 1,042.1 1,144.8 1,309.9 1,354.7 1,374.2 1,090.7 1,105.7 1,243.0 1,423.6 1,491.3 1,602.1 1,089.9 1,052.3 917.5 886.8 953.2 1,062.5 1,217.1 1,270.5 1,294.5 1,015.3 1,036.2 1,169.6 1,334.4 1,400.9 1,510.8 1.5 1.5 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.7 2.7 2.1 2.3 2.2 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.0 4.0 42.5 51.3 42.5 50.5 51.3 66.7 99.3 120.7 149.3 100.6 115.7 165.7 196.7 202.2 228.7 61.3 82.8 65.5 54.6 50.4 58.0 69.8 85.4 98.7 103.0 94.5 98.0 125.0 111.3 120.2 25.0 24.8 24.8 23.2 28.6 30.1 30.3 36.7 40.8 19.8 17.9 21.8 23.6 27.6 30.3 214.8 192.8 157.2 149.1 156.7 165.6 192.4 197.3 213.1 155.2 160.8 192.4 203.1 221.3 230.9 33.6 30.0 26.8 26.0 32.3 40.6 36.6 30.8 32.4 25.3 31.1 35.7 40.9 37.5 44.8 69.8 66.9 59.3 65.9 72.2 73.5 86.7 82.5 73.2 58.4 65.3 68.1 77.6 77.5 82.7 59.9 57.8 47.1 44.5 46.1 56.9 68.0 67.4 79.6 55.7 59.0 72.7 81.8 92.6 109.3 160.2 144.8 88.2 80.5 83.5 91.4 104.4 106.1 103.3 88.4 97.2 100.1 106.5 123.9 131.3 133.7 131.1 128.4 120.8 153.6 161.4 163.1 173.4 132.9 99.5 103.1 109.2 130.2 137.8 153.4 92.5 82.7 94.5 88.0 91.6 103.0 132.1 117.5 106.9 72.9 81.3 91.1 115.7 114.2 121.2 34.1 30.5 25.9 24.7 26.7 33.1 30.3 31.8 33.0 28.2 28.2 28.1 31.6 35.7 31.2 52.2 52.9 59.3 61.2 64.6 73.8 75.3 84.2 90.2 79.4 78.4 83.1 88.9 94.2 88.9 108.9 102.5 96.1 96.2 93.6 105.6 126.3 134.8 138.7 127.0 100.6 100.4 110.0 122.1 133.9 71.2 56.7 80.4 88.2 88.9 82.2 92.8 84.2 79.7 75.4 69.5 73.4 89.2 90.4 91.3 1 Includes the following industries: Management of companies and enterprises; administrative and support and waste management; educational services; arts, entertainment, and recreation; accommodation and food services; and other services (except public administration). Also includes an item for structure and equipment expenditures serving multiple industry categories. Note: Data from Annual Capital Expenditures. Industry data are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Data shown in this table are capital expenditures for both new and used structures and equipment. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census). 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force In July, unemployment as measured by the household survey fell by 13,000 to 7.8 million. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 162 162 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 158 158 154 154 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE 150 150 146 146 142 142 CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT 138 138 134 134 20 20 16 16 UNEMPLOYMENT 12 12 8 8 4 4 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 *16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 2016 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Period 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2015: July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2016: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� July ���������� Civilian noninstitutional population (NSA) 228,815 231,867 233,788 235,801 237,830 239,618 243,284 245,679 247,947 250,801 250,876 251,096 251,325 251,541 251,747 251,936 252,397 252,577 252,768 252,969 253,174 253,397 253,620 Civilian employment Civilian labor force Total 151,428 153,124 154,287 154,142 153,889 153,617 154,975 155,389 155,922 157,130 157,115 157,061 156,867 157,096 157,367 157,833 158,335 158,890 159,286 158,924 158,466 158,880 159,287 144,427 146,047 145,362 139,877 139,064 139,869 142,469 143,929 146,305 148,834 148,866 149,043 148,942 149,197 149,444 149,929 150,544 151,074 151,320 151,004 151,030 151,097 151,517 Men 20 years and over 74,431 75,337 74,750 71,341 71,230 72,182 73,403 74,176 75,471 76,776 76,871 76,865 76,775 76,857 76,823 77,119 77,704 77,991 78,096 77,999 77,917 78,127 78,048 Women 20 years and over 63,834 64,799 65,039 63,699 63,456 63,360 64,640 65,295 66,287 67,323 67,323 67,504 67,465 67,624 67,891 67,911 67,940 68,094 68,293 68,072 68,209 68,107 68,508 Percent 1 Unemployment Both sexes 16–19 years 6,162 5,911 5,573 4,837 4,378 4,327 4,426 4,458 4,548 4,734 4,672 4,674 4,702 4,715 4,729 4,899 4,901 4,990 4,931 4,934 4,904 4,864 4,961 Total 7,001 7,078 8,924 14,265 14,825 13,747 12,506 11,460 9,617 8,296 8,249 8,018 7,925 7,899 7,924 7,904 7,791 7,815 7,966 7,920 7,436 7,783 7,770 Men 20 years and over 3,131 3,259 4,297 7,555 7,763 6,898 5,984 5,568 4,585 3,959 3,880 3,776 3,803 3,803 3,800 3,808 3,629 3,677 3,719 3,749 3,490 3,661 3,786 Women 20 years and over 2,751 2,718 3,342 5,157 5,534 5,450 5,125 4,565 3,926 3,371 3,460 3,301 3,214 3,209 3,249 3,157 3,231 3,219 3,317 3,230 3,009 3,196 3,065 Both sexes 16–19 years 1,119 1,101 1,285 1,552 1,528 1,400 1,397 1,327 1,106 966 909 941 908 887 875 938 931 920 929 941 937 926 920 Not in labor force 77,387 78,743 79,501 81,659 83,941 86,001 88,310 90,290 92,025 93,671 93,761 94,035 94,458 94,446 94,380 94,103 94,062 93,688 93,482 94,044 94,708 94,517 94,333 Chart 11 - Jul 2016 Labor Employ- Unemployforce ment/ participa- population ment tion rate ratio rate 66.2 66.0 66.0 65.4 64.7 64.1 63.7 63.2 62.9 62.7 62.6 62.6 62.4 62.5 62.5 62.6 62.7 62.9 63.0 62.8 62.6 62.7 62.8 63.1 63.0 62.2 59.3 58.5 58.4 58.6 58.6 59.0 59.3 59.3 59.4 59.3 59.3 59.4 59.5 59.6 59.8 59.9 59.7 59.7 59.6 59.7 4.6 4.6 5.8 9.3 9.6 8.9 8.1 7.4 6.2 5.3 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.9 4.9 1 Civilian labor force (or employment) as percent of civilian noninstitutional population; and unemployment as percent of civilian labor force. Note: Beginning each January, data reflect revised population controls and are not strictly comparable with earlier data. See Employment and Earnings for details on breaks in series. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 11 Selected Unemployment Rates In July, the unemployment rate remained at 4.9 percent. PERCENT (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 30 30 25 25 TEENAGERS (16-19) 20 20 15 15 BLACK OR AFRICAN AMERICAN1 10 10 HISPANIC1,2 MEN 20 YEARS AND OVER 5 5 WHITE1 ALL CIVILIAN WORKERS ASIAN1 2014 2015 0 WOMEN 20 YEARS AND OVER 0 2012 2013 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1 SEE FOOTNOTE 1 TABLE BELOW. HISPANIC OR LATINO ETHNICITY. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 2 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) Chart 12 - Jul 2016 By race or ethnicity 1 By sex and age Period 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2015: July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2016: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� July ���������� All civilian workers 4.6 4.6 5.8 9.3 9.6 8.9 8.1 7.4 6.2 5.3 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.9 4.9 Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over 4.0 4.1 5.4 9.6 9.8 8.7 7.5 7.0 5.7 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.1 4.0 4.9 7.5 8.0 7.9 7.3 6.5 5.6 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.2 4.5 4.3 Both sexes 16–19 years 15.4 15.7 18.7 24.3 25.9 24.4 24.0 22.9 19.6 16.9 16.3 16.8 16.2 15.8 15.6 16.1 16.0 15.6 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.0 15.6 White 4.0 4.1 5.2 8.5 8.7 7.9 7.2 6.5 5.3 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.4 4.3 Black or African American 8.9 8.3 10.1 14.8 16.0 15.8 13.8 13.1 11.3 9.6 9.1 9.4 9.2 9.2 9.4 8.3 8.8 8.8 9.0 8.8 8.2 8.6 8.4 By selected groups Hispanic or Latino ethnicity Asian 3.0 3.2 4.0 7.3 7.5 7.0 5.9 5.2 5.0 3.8 4.0 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.8 4.1 3.5 3.8 1 Persons who selected this race group only. Persons whose ethnicity is identified as Hispanic or Latino may be of any race. Note: Data relate to persons age 16 years and over. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 12 5.2 5.6 7.6 12.1 12.5 11.5 10.3 9.1 7.4 6.6 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.3 5.9 5.4 5.6 6.1 5.6 5.8 5.4 Married men, spouse present 2.4 2.5 3.4 6.6 6.8 5.8 4.9 4.3 3.4 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 Women who maintain families (NSA) 7.1 6.5 8.0 11.5 12.3 12.4 11.4 10.2 8.6 7.4 8.0 8.1 7.1 7.5 6.9 5.8 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.6 7.3 7.2 Full-time workers 4.5 4.6 5.8 10.0 10.4 9.6 8.5 7.7 6.4 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.1 4.7 4.9 4.9 Part-time workers 5.1 4.9 5.5 6.0 6.3 6.3 6.1 5.9 5.4 4.9 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.9 4.6 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.9 4.9 Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs In July, the percentage of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks fell, while the percentages for 5 to 14 weeks, 15 to 26 weeks, and 27 weeks and over rose. The mean duration of unemployment rose to 28.1 weeks and the median duration rose to 11.6 weeks. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 70 DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT 60 60 50 50 REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT JOB LOSERS 27 WEEKS AND OVER 40 40 LESS THAN 5 WEEKS REENTRANTS 30 30 5-14 WEEKS 20 20 NEW ENTRANTS 15-26 WEEKS 10 10 JOB LEAVERS 0 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 2015 2016 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Chart 13 - Jul 2016 Duration of unemployment Period Unemployment (thousands) Percent distribution Less than 5 weeks 5–14 weeks 15–26 weeks Reason for unemployment: percent distribution Number of weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) 1 Median Job losers Job leavers Reentrants New entrants State programs Insured unemployment (NSA) Initial claims (NSA) Insured unemployment, all programs (NSA) 2 Weekly average, thousands 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2015: July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2016: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� July ���������� 7,001 7,078 8,924 14,265 14,825 13,747 12,506 11,460 9,617 8,296 8,249 8,018 7,925 7,899 7,924 7,904 7,791 7,815 7,966 7,920 7,436 7,783 7,770 37.3 35.9 32.8 22.2 18.7 19.5 21.1 22.5 25.7 28.9 30.5 26.6 30.0 29.3 30.2 30.4 29.0 29.3 30.1 31.6 29.4 31.5 28.4 30.3 31.5 31.4 26.8 22.0 21.8 22.9 24.1 25.3 27.7 27.8 29.8 27.9 28.7 28.2 27.7 29.4 28.6 27.5 26.5 29.8 27.9 29.8 14.7 15.0 16.0 19.5 16.0 15.0 14.9 15.8 15.6 15.3 14.6 15.9 15.5 15.4 15.9 15.6 14.6 14.5 14.7 16.2 15.6 14.7 15.1 17.6 17.6 19.7 31.5 43.3 43.8 41.1 37.6 33.5 28.1 27.1 27.7 26.6 26.7 25.7 26.3 26.9 27.7 27.6 25.7 25.1 25.8 26.6 16.8 16.8 17.9 24.4 33.0 39.3 39.4 36.5 33.7 29.2 28.3 28.3 26.3 28.0 27.9 27.6 28.9 29.0 28.4 27.7 26.7 27.7 28.1 8.3 8.5 9.4 15.1 21.4 21.4 19.3 17.0 14.0 11.6 11.4 12.1 11.3 11.1 10.7 10.5 10.9 11.2 11.4 11.4 10.7 10.3 11.6 47.4 49.7 53.7 64.2 62.4 59.0 55.0 53.0 50.7 49.0 50.0 50.2 48.9 49.4 48.6 47.7 47.4 48.0 48.3 48.8 48.0 48.6 48.6 11.8 11.2 10.0 6.2 6.0 7.0 7.7 8.1 8.6 9.9 10.3 9.9 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.3 9.9 9.7 10.5 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.7 32.0 30.3 27.7 22.3 23.4 24.7 26.7 28.0 29.4 30.6 29.7 29.3 30.8 30.5 30.7 31.1 31.9 31.6 31.4 29.8 29.7 29.2 29.9 8.8 2,476 313 2,521 8.9 2,572 324 2,612 8.6 3,306 424 3,899 7.3 5,724 568 9,123 8.2 4,487 454 9,732 9.3 3,679 406 7,630 10.5 3,297 374 6,048 10.9 2,947 342 4,605 11.3 2,574 305 2,657 10.6 2,238 275 2,273 10.0 2,324 298 2,359 10.6 2,462 246 2,500 10.5 2,002 233 2,036 10.2 1,870 266 1,906 10.6 2,263 307 2,303 10.8 2,441 403 2,478 10.7 2,916 378 2,953 10.7 2,803 277 2,838 9.8 2,594 267 2,626 10.6 2,189 259 2,217 11.6 2,327 267 2,356 11.6 2,049 281 2,075 10.7 ��������������� ��������������� ����������������� 1 Beginning January 2011, includes unemployment durations of up to 5 years; prior data are for up to 2 years. 2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands), Federal (UCFE), ex-service members (UCX), and Federal and State extended benefit programs. Emergency Unemployment Compensation (2008-2013) and Federal Additional Compensation (2009-2010). Also includes Note: Data relate to persons age 16 years and over (except for insured unemployment and initial claims). Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 Nonagricultural Employment Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 255,000 in July. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 145 104 102 ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 140 PRIVATE SERVICE-PROVIDING INDUSTRIES 100 98 96 135 94 130 92 90 125 24 22 EDUCATION AND HEALTH SERVICES PROFESSIONAL AND BUSINESS SERVICES 20 120 18 PRIVATE INDUSTRIES RETAIL TRADE 16 115 14 22 110 GOODS-PRODUCING 20 105 18 16 100 14 24 GOVERNMENT MANUFACTURING 12 22 20 10 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 2015 2016 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thousands of wage and salary workers; 1 monthly data seasonally adjusted] Chart 14 - Jul 2016 Private industries Period 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2015: July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2016: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May r �������� June r ������� July p �������� Total nonagricultural employment 136,453 137,999 137,242 131,313 130,361 131,932 134,175 136,381 138,958 141,865 142,001 142,151 142,300 142,595 142,875 143,146 143,314 143,547 143,733 143,877 143,901 144,193 144,448 Goods-producing industries Total private 114,479 115,781 114,732 108,758 107,871 109,845 112,255 114,529 117,076 119,859 119,979 120,102 120,264 120,568 120,847 121,106 121,261 121,483 121,650 121,797 121,796 122,055 122,272 Total 2 Construc- Manufaction turing 22,530 22,233 21,335 18,558 17,751 18,047 18,420 18,738 19,226 19,584 19,585 19,562 19,550 19,581 19,634 19,678 19,702 19,682 19,675 19,663 19,618 19,623 19,639 7,691 7,630 7,162 6,016 5,518 5,533 5,646 5,856 6,151 6,446 6,437 6,441 6,451 6,484 6,549 6,597 6,615 6,628 6,665 6,659 6,641 6,638 6,652 14,155 13,879 13,406 11,847 11,528 11,726 11,927 12,020 12,185 12,318 12,336 12,318 12,309 12,311 12,314 12,320 12,338 12,322 12,293 12,298 12,281 12,296 12,305 Private service-providing industries Trade, transportation, and utilities Total Total 3 91,949 93,548 93,398 90,201 90,120 91,798 93,834 95,791 97,850 100,275 100,394 100,540 100,714 100,987 101,213 101,428 101,559 101,801 101,975 102,134 102,178 102,432 102,633 26,276 26,630 26,293 24,906 24,636 25,065 25,476 25,862 26,383 26,920 26,963 26,978 26,987 27,011 27,087 27,114 27,173 27,229 27,280 27,296 27,292 27,314 27,343 Retail trade 15,353 15,520 15,283 14,522 14,440 14,668 14,841 15,079 15,357 15,641 15,671 15,675 15,681 15,702 15,754 15,761 15,827 15,879 15,922 15,920 15,920 15,945 15,960 Information Financial activities 3,038 3,032 2,984 2,804 2,707 2,674 2,676 2,706 2,726 2,750 2,756 2,753 2,766 2,771 2,753 2,763 2,763 2,774 2,782 2,782 2,741 2,783 2,783 8,367 8,348 8,206 7,838 7,695 7,697 7,784 7,886 7,977 8,124 8,137 8,150 8,153 8,164 8,182 8,190 8,207 8,215 8,229 8,250 8,266 8,281 8,299 Profes- Education Leisure sional and and and health hospitalbusiness services ity services 17,566 17,942 17,735 16,579 16,728 17,332 17,932 18,515 19,062 19,672 19,707 19,742 19,782 19,873 19,921 19,981 19,979 20,014 20,045 20,102 20,134 20,187 20,257 18,154 18,676 19,228 19,630 19,975 20,318 20,769 21,086 21,439 22,055 22,075 22,137 22,192 22,270 22,315 22,378 22,404 22,481 22,527 22,574 22,620 22,678 22,714 13,110 13,427 13,436 13,077 13,049 13,353 13,768 14,254 14,696 15,128 15,125 15,158 15,208 15,261 15,307 15,342 15,376 15,413 15,431 15,446 15,449 15,501 15,546 Other services 5,438 5,494 5,515 5,367 5,331 5,360 5,430 5,483 5,567 5,625 5,631 5,622 5,626 5,637 5,648 5,660 5,657 5,675 5,681 5,684 5,676 5,688 5,691 Government 21,974 22,218 22,509 22,555 22,490 22,086 21,920 21,853 21,882 22,007 22,022 22,049 22,036 22,027 22,028 22,040 22,053 22,064 22,083 22,080 22,105 22,138 22,176 1 Data from the establishment survey. Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who received pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, unpaid family workers, and private household workers. Data from the household survey shown on p. 11 include those workers and also count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off. In the series shown here, persons who work at more than one job are counted each time they appear on a payroll, in contrast to the series shown on p. 11 where persons are counted only once—as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force. See Employment and Earnings for details. 2 Includes mining and logging, not shown separately. 3 Includes wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, and utilities, not shown separately. Note: Data classified by industry based on the 2012 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). For details see Employment and Earnings. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 14 Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings— Private Nonagricultural Industries [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Average weekly hours Total private nonagricultural 1 Period 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2015: June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2016: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May r �������� June r ������� July p �������� Average gross hourly earnings Total private nonagricultural 1 Manufacturing Total 33.9 33.8 33.6 33.1 33.4 33.6 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.6 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.8 33.7 33.7 33.6 33.6 33.6 33.6 33.7 Overtime 41.1 41.2 40.8 39.8 41.1 41.4 41.7 41.8 42.0 41.8 41.8 41.8 41.8 41.7 41.7 41.7 41.7 41.9 41.8 41.7 41.8 41.9 41.8 42.0 4.4 4.2 3.7 2.9 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 Current dollars Manufacturing 1982-84 dollars 2 $16.75 $8.50 17.42 8.59 18.06 8.56 18.61 8.88 19.05 8.90 19.44 8.77 19.74 8.73 20.13 8.78 20.61 8.85 21.04 9.08 21.00 9.04 21.05 9.05 21.11 9.08 21.12 9.10 21.21 9.12 21.23 9.11 21.26 9.14 21.33 9.18 21.35 9.21 21.40 9.22 21.46 9.21 21.48 9.20 21.52 9.20 21.59 ����������������� Average gross weekly earnings Total private nonagricultural 1 Current dollars $16.81 17.26 17.75 18.24 18.61 18.93 19.08 19.30 19.56 19.91 19.89 19.96 20.02 20.07 20.06 20.07 20.12 20.17 20.21 20.29 20.39 20.41 20.42 20.47 Percent change from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural Current dollars 1982-84 dollars 2 $567.06 $287.70 589.18 290.57 607.42 287.80 615.96 293.83 636.19 297.33 652.89 294.66 665.65 294.24 677.73 295.53 694.91 298.54 709.13 305.91 705.60 303.70 709.39 304.91 711.41 305.91 711.74 306.62 714.78 307.34 715.45 307.16 718.59 309.05 718.82 309.26 719.50 310.54 719.04 309.94 721.06 309.42 721.73 309.07 723.07 308.99 727.58 ����������������� Manufacturing Construction $690.88 711.53 724.46 726.12 765.18 784.29 794.63 807.37 822.03 832.42 831.40 834.33 836.84 836.92 836.50 836.92 839.00 845.12 844.78 846.09 852.30 855.18 853.56 859.74 $781.59 816.23 842.61 851.76 891.83 921.84 942.14 958.72 977.11 997.77 1,006.54 992.88 1,001.48 986.32 1,028.30 1,012.11 1,022.29 1,011.32 1,013.86 1,006.66 1,020.69 1,024.06 1,035.20 1,038.38 Retail trade Current dollars $383.12 385.00 386.21 388.57 400.07 412.09 422.10 423.07 431.82 445.25 443.70 445.20 447.00 453.00 450.30 449.69 448.80 449.10 447.30 446.69 447.89 446.69 447.00 447.58 1982-84 dollars 2 4.2 1.0 3.9 1.0 3.1 –1.0 1.4 2.1 3.3 1.2 2.6 –.9 2.0 –.1 1.8 .4 2.5 1.0 2.0 2.5 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.3 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.8 2.4 2.9 2.0 2.0 2.6 2.2 2.2 1.0 2.2 1.6 2.1 1.6 2.2 1.4 2.3 1.6 2.5 1.7 2.6 ������������������� 1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. 2 Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI–W) (on a 1982-84=100 base). Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). Employment Cost Index—Private Industry Index (December 2005 = 100) Period Total compensation Wages and salaries Percent change from 3 months earlier Benefits 1 Total compensation 12 months earlier Wages and salaries Benefits 1 Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits 1 Not seasonally adjusted 2006: 2007: 2008: 2009: 2010: 2011: 2012: 2013: 2014: 2015: Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ 103.2 106.3 108.9 110.2 112.5 115.0 117.1 119.4 122.2 124.5 103.2 106.6 109.4 110.8 112.8 114.6 116.6 119.0 121.6 124.2 103.1 105.6 107.7 108.7 111.9 115.9 118.2 120.5 123.5 125.1 ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� Seasonally adjusted 2014: Mar ����������������������������������������� June ���������������������������������������� Sept ���������������������������������������� Dec ������������������������������������������ 2015: Mar ����������������������������������������� June ���������������������������������������� Sept ���������������������������������������� Dec ������������������������������������������ 2016: Mar ����������������������������������������� June ���������������������������������������� 119.9 120.9 121.7 122.3 123.2 123.2 124.0 124.6 125.4 126.1 119.4 120.2 121.1 121.7 122.6 122.8 123.6 124.3 125.2 126.0 121.2 122.6 123.2 123.8 124.4 124.2 124.8 125.3 125.9 126.4 3.2 3.0 2.4 1.2 2.1 2.2 1.8 2.0 2.3 1.9 3.2 3.3 2.6 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.1 3.1 2.4 2.0 0.9 2.9 3.6 2.0 1.9 2.5 1.3 Not seasonally adjusted 0.3 .8 .7 .5 .7 .0 .6 .5 .6 .6 0.3 .7 .7 .5 .7 .2 .7 .6 .7 .6 0.3 1.2 .5 .5 .5 –.2 .5 .4 .5 .4 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.4 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.8 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.6 1.8 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.6 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.7 1 Employer costs for employee benefits. Note: The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries. Data exclude farm and household workers. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 15 Productivity and Related Data, Business and Nonfarm Business Sectors Labor productivity (output per hour) Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Hours of all persons 2 Output 1 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Compensation per hour 3 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real compensation per hour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit labor costs Implicit price deflator 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 97.6 100.4 102.2 100.0 98.6 100.7 102.7 103.6 105.6 107.9 101.7 101.7 102.1 105.3 102.7 104.1 103.9 103.6 106.0 105.0 105.0 106.5 107.2 107.7 107.7 109.1 110.3 97.5 100.1 102.1 100.0 98.7 100.7 102.5 103.6 105.7 108.0 101.6 101.5 101.8 105.0 102.5 104.1 104.0 103.7 106.0 105.0 105.1 106.6 107.2 107.8 107.9 109.3 110.5 96.0 98.2 99.8 100.0 101.1 103.3 105.3 106.9 108.4 109.1 104.5 105.0 105.7 106.0 106.4 106.6 107.1 107.4 107.8 108.4 108.7 108.5 108.5 109.1 109.4 109.5 109.5 96.0 97.9 99.4 100.0 101.0 102.8 104.7 106.3 107.9 109.0 104.0 104.5 105.1 105.3 105.7 106.0 106.5 107.0 107.4 107.8 108.3 108.2 108.3 109.0 109.2 109.5 109.5 2.9 2.9 1.8 –2.2 –1.4 2.1 2.0 .8 2.0 2.2 9.6 .2 1.5 13.2 –9.7 5.7 –.9 –1.2 9.9 –3.7 .0 5.6 2.6 2.1 .0 5.3 4.5 3.0 2.7 2.0 –2.0 –1.3 2.1 1.7 1.1 2.0 2.3 8.9 –.1 1.1 13.2 –9.1 6.2 –.5 –1.1 9.4 –3.5 .1 5.7 2.6 2.0 .4 5.4 4.5 2.7 2.3 1.5 .2 1.1 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.4 .7 1.7 2.1 2.4 1.4 1.6 .6 1.7 1.2 1.5 2.3 1.2 –.6 –.1 2.2 .9 .5 –.1 2.8 2.0 1.5 .6 1.0 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.7 2.2 2.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 2.2 1.7 1.3 1.9 1.8 –.5 .5 2.3 1.0 .9 .3 Indexes, 2009=100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2012: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2013: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2014: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2015: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2016: I * ������������� 94.7 96.1 96.8 100.0 103.3 103.4 104.1 104.6 105.3 106.0 104.0 104.5 104.2 103.8 104.1 104.2 104.6 105.5 104.6 105.2 105.9 105.4 105.1 106.0 106.6 106.1 105.9 94.7 96.2 96.9 100.0 103.3 103.5 104.4 104.5 105.3 106.0 104.2 104.8 104.6 104.1 104.1 104.0 104.4 105.3 104.5 105.1 105.9 105.5 105.3 106.1 106.6 106.1 106.0 103.3 105.5 104.2 100.0 103.2 105.3 108.4 110.6 113.9 117.3 107.8 108.5 108.6 108.7 109.4 109.8 110.9 112.2 111.8 113.3 114.8 115.6 115.8 117.2 117.8 118.3 118.5 103.4 105.8 104.4 100.0 103.2 105.5 108.8 110.6 114.0 117.2 108.1 108.8 109.1 109.1 109.6 109.9 110.8 112.2 111.9 113.4 114.9 115.6 115.8 117.2 117.7 118.2 118.4 109.1 109.8 107.7 100.0 99.9 101.9 104.1 105.7 108.2 110.7 103.7 103.8 104.2 104.7 105.0 105.4 106.0 106.4 106.8 107.7 108.4 109.7 110.1 110.6 110.5 111.4 111.9 109.2 110.0 107.8 100.0 99.9 101.9 104.1 105.9 108.3 110.6 103.7 103.8 104.2 104.8 105.3 105.6 106.2 106.5 107.1 107.9 108.5 109.6 110.0 110.5 110.5 111.4 111.8 92.4 96.4 99.0 100.0 101.9 104.1 107.0 108.3 111.2 114.4 105.7 106.4 106.5 109.3 106.9 108.5 108.6 109.2 110.9 110.5 111.2 112.2 112.6 114.2 114.8 115.8 116.9 92.3 96.3 98.9 100.0 102.0 104.2 107.0 108.2 111.2 114.5 105.9 106.4 106.5 109.3 106.7 108.3 108.5 109.2 110.8 110.4 111.3 112.4 112.9 114.3 115.0 116.0 117.1 98.3 99.8 98.6 100.0 100.3 99.3 100.0 99.8 100.8 103.5 99.3 99.7 99.4 101.3 98.7 100.3 99.9 100.0 101.0 100.2 100.6 101.5 102.7 103.4 103.7 104.3 105.4 98.3 99.7 98.6 100.0 100.3 99.4 100.0 99.7 100.8 103.7 99.4 99.8 99.4 101.3 98.6 100.1 99.8 100.0 100.9 100.1 100.7 101.7 102.9 103.6 103.8 104.5 105.6 Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2012: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2013: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2014: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2015: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2016: I * ������������� 1.0 1.5 .8 3.3 3.3 .1 .7 .4 .7 .6 .1 2.2 –1.1 –1.8 1.4 .3 1.4 3.5 –3.3 2.5 2.6 –2.0 –1.0 3.4 2.4 –1.8 –.7 0.9 1.6 .8 3.2 3.3 .2 .9 .0 .8 .7 .7 2.3 –.9 –2.0 .0 –.2 1.4 3.7 –3.1 2.4 3.1 –1.7 –.8 3.1 2.0 –1.7 –.6 3.2 2.1 –1.2 –4.1 3.2 2.1 2.9 2.0 3.0 3.0 3.4 2.6 .6 .2 2.5 1.6 3.9 5.1 –1.7 5.7 5.5 2.6 .6 5.0 2.2 1.5 .8 3.2 2.3 –1.3 –4.3 3.2 2.2 3.1 1.7 3.0 2.9 3.9 2.7 1.0 .2 1.7 1.1 3.5 5.2 –1.2 5.4 5.5 2.6 .5 5.1 1.8 1.5 .9 2.2 .6 –2.0 –7.1 –.1 2.0 2.1 1.5 2.3 2.3 3.3 .3 1.7 2.0 1.1 1.3 2.5 1.5 1.6 3.1 2.9 4.7 1.6 1.6 –.2 3.4 1.6 2.2 .7 –2.0 –7.2 –.1 2.0 2.2 1.7 2.2 2.1 3.2 .4 1.9 2.3 1.6 1.4 2.1 1.5 2.0 3.0 2.3 4.4 1.3 1.9 –.2 3.3 1.5 3.9 4.4 2.6 1.0 1.9 2.1 2.8 1.3 2.7 2.8 9.7 2.4 .4 11.2 –8.5 6.0 .5 2.3 6.3 –1.4 2.5 3.6 1.6 5.5 2.4 3.3 3.8 3.9 4.3 2.7 1.1 2.0 2.2 2.7 1.1 2.8 3.0 9.7 2.2 .2 10.9 –9.0 5.9 .9 2.5 5.9 –1.3 3.3 3.9 1.8 5.2 2.3 3.6 3.9 0.7 1.6 –1.2 1.4 .3 –1.0 .7 –.2 1.0 2.7 7.2 1.6 –1.3 8.1 –9.9 6.5 –1.6 .5 4.0 –3.3 1.7 3.9 4.6 2.9 1.0 2.5 4.1 0.7 1.4 –1.1 1.4 .3 –.9 .6 –.4 1.2 2.9 7.1 1.5 –1.5 7.8 –10.4 6.5 –1.2 .7 3.6 –3.2 2.4 4.2 4.8 2.6 1.0 2.7 4.2 1 Output refers to real gross domestic product originating in the sector. 2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers’ contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed. 4 Hourly compensation divided by consumer price series. The trend for 1978-2015 is based on the consumer price index research series (CPI-U-RS). The change for prior years and recent quarters is based on the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U). 5 Current dollar gross domestic output divided by the output index. Note: Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. * Data based on GDP data released on May 27, 2016. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production and capacity utilization rose in June. INDEX, 2012 = 100* (RATIO SCALE) 120 INDEX, 2012 = 100* (RATIO SCALE) 130 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FINAL PRODUCTS 110 120 100 110 90 CONSUMER GOODS BUSINESS EQUIPMENT 80 100 120 MANUFACTURING TOTAL1 110 DURABLE DEFENSE AND SPACE EQUIPMENT 90 100 NONDURABLE 90 80 80 140 PERCENT* 86 CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE (TOTAL INDUSTRY) 84 UTILITIES AND MINING 130 MINING 120 82 80 78 110 76 100 74 72 UTILITIES 90 70 68 66 80 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1 SEE FOOTNOTE 1 TABLE BELOW *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Total industrial production 1 Period 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2015: June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2016: Jan r ��������� Feb r ��������� Mar r �������� Apr r ��������� May r �������� June p ������� Percent change 2 Index, 2012=100 102.4 105.0 101.2 89.6 94.5 97.3 100.0 101.9 104.9 105.2 104.9 105.5 105.6 105.3 105.2 104.5 104.0 104.5 104.4 103.4 103.8 103.5 104.1 From preceding month ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� –0.2 .6 .1 –.3 –.1 –.6 –.4 .5 –.2 –1.0 .5 –.3 .6 Chart 17 - Jul 2016 Industry production indexes, 2012=100 Capacity utilization rate (output as percent of capacity) 1 Manufacturing From year earlier 2.2 2.5 –3.6 –11.5 5.5 2.9 2.8 1.9 2.9 .3 –.2 .3 .4 –.3 –.5 –2.1 –2.3 –1.4 –1.4 –2.0 –1.4 –1.4 –.7 Total 1 106.3 109.2 103.9 89.6 94.8 97.5 100.0 100.9 102.2 103.0 102.8 103.5 103.4 103.1 103.4 103.1 103.0 103.4 103.4 103.0 103.0 102.8 103.2 Durable 98.2 103.0 99.4 80.7 89.3 94.8 100.0 102.1 105.2 105.8 105.7 106.5 106.3 106.0 106.2 105.5 105.8 106.0 106.2 105.4 106.0 105.5 106.4 Nondurable 111.1 112.5 105.8 97.7 99.8 99.9 100.0 100.0 99.4 101.1 100.6 101.2 101.4 101.3 101.4 101.6 101.3 102.0 101.6 101.7 101.2 101.2 101.2 Other (non-NAICS) 1 168.2 158.5 144.5 120.8 111.6 106.3 100.0 95.0 94.4 88.4 88.9 89.8 88.4 87.0 87.5 87.1 86.2 84.7 85.8 84.4 84.4 83.8 82.5 Mining 86.9 87.6 88.5 83.9 88.2 93.1 100.0 106.5 118.2 116.1 114.7 116.0 116.5 115.2 114.1 112.6 110.1 108.2 107.7 105.1 102.2 102.5 102.7 Utilities 99.1 102.2 101.9 99.0 102.7 102.4 100.0 102.3 103.7 102.9 103.3 102.6 103.8 104.3 102.3 99.6 97.9 101.5 100.4 96.3 102.3 101.4 103.8 Total industry Total manufacturing 80.4 80.7 77.7 68.5 73.6 76.1 76.7 76.9 78.2 76.7 76.4 76.7 76.7 76.4 76.3 75.7 75.4 75.7 75.6 74.8 75.2 74.9 75.4 78.6 78.8 74.7 65.6 70.8 73.7 74.6 74.5 75.4 75.5 75.3 75.8 75.7 75.5 75.6 75.3 75.2 75.5 75.4 75.1 75.1 74.8 75.1 1 Total industry and total manufacturing series include manufacturing as defined in the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) plus those industries—logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory-publishing—that have traditionally been included in manufacturing. 2 Percent changes based on unrounded indexes. Note: Data based on NAICS except series as defined in footnote 1. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 Industrial Production— Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures [2012=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Products and nonindustrial supplies Materials Final products Consumer goods Period Total 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2015: June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2016: Jan r ��������� Feb r ��������� Mar r �������� Apr r ��������� May r �������� June p ������� Nonindustrial supplies Total 105.8 108.2 104.1 93.1 96.3 98.4 100.0 100.1 101.1 101.0 100.6 101.5 101.8 101.2 100.9 100.1 99.9 100.7 100.7 99.7 100.7 100.1 101.1 112.9 113.3 107.0 99.3 100.1 101.4 100.0 100.7 101.4 102.9 102.3 103.6 104.0 103.4 103.2 102.5 102.3 103.6 103.5 102.3 103.5 102.7 103.9 Durable goods 119.4 120.7 105.5 86.4 93.7 98.0 100.0 105.7 110.5 114.8 113.4 117.3 116.2 116.5 117.2 116.4 117.3 118.3 118.6 117.3 118.5 115.7 119.7 Equipment Nondurable goods 110.7 110.8 107.3 102.9 101.9 102.3 100.0 99.4 99.1 99.8 99.4 100.1 100.8 100.0 99.6 98.9 98.4 99.8 99.6 98.3 99.6 99.3 99.7 Total 1 92.4 98.5 98.4 81.5 88.8 92.6 100.0 99.0 100.6 97.5 97.4 97.4 97.8 97.2 96.6 95.7 95.5 95.4 95.5 94.9 95.5 95.3 95.8 Business 94.9 99.6 97.6 79.9 86.4 91.0 100.0 99.8 102.2 102.9 103.4 103.5 103.9 103.4 102.8 101.6 101.3 101.5 102.0 101.4 102.5 102.2 102.9 Defense and space Total 76.5 91.2 98.4 94.0 101.1 98.2 100.0 97.1 94.3 89.0 88.6 88.2 88.7 88.0 87.8 88.2 89.1 88.2 88.4 87.8 87.7 88.6 88.4 117.2 117.7 110.5 93.5 96.6 97.9 100.0 102.1 104.4 105.2 105.0 104.8 105.0 105.0 106.0 106.1 105.8 106.2 106.2 105.0 105.3 105.0 104.7 Construction 130.6 129.5 117.5 90.4 93.6 95.9 100.0 103.0 106.8 108.3 108.0 108.0 108.4 107.6 109.7 109.7 110.0 110.1 110.0 109.2 109.4 108.9 108.0 Business 111.2 112.5 107.4 94.9 97.9 98.9 100.0 101.8 103.3 103.6 103.5 103.2 103.4 103.7 104.2 104.3 103.7 104.3 104.3 103.0 103.2 103.1 103.0 Total 1 95.3 98.6 96.1 85.5 92.5 96.2 100.0 103.3 108.1 108.7 108.4 109.0 108.8 108.8 108.4 107.6 106.9 107.1 106.7 105.8 105.7 105.7 106.3 Energy 87.8 89.7 90.3 88.1 91.8 94.6 100.0 105.4 114.1 114.8 114.4 114.7 115.6 115.5 113.5 111.5 109.6 110.3 109.2 107.1 107.5 107.2 109.2 1 Includes other items, not shown separately. [2012=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Durable manufactures Computer and electronic products Primary metals Period Total 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2015: June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2016: Jan r ��������� Feb r ��������� Mar r �������� Apr r ��������� May r �������� June p ������� 101.9 104.0 104.2 77.5 95.1 102.1 100.0 103.3 103.4 96.7 99.1 98.4 96.6 94.9 96.1 95.3 93.6 93.7 95.1 95.3 94.9 96.0 95.7 Iron and steel products 101.0 102.6 109.2 70.4 91.8 100.1 100.0 102.1 100.2 88.5 94.3 92.3 89.3 88.0 87.7 82.5 82.9 84.2 88.3 89.8 89.2 91.1 91.6 Fabricated metal products 110.2 114.9 110.8 85.2 90.8 97.1 100.0 101.8 104.2 102.7 103.1 102.8 101.8 101.8 101.2 100.9 101.7 101.6 101.2 99.8 100.1 100.0 100.0 Nondurable manufactures Machinery Total 93.1 97.1 94.5 73.5 82.1 92.5 100.0 95.4 95.9 94.3 94.6 94.5 95.7 95.1 94.5 92.2 90.9 90.2 89.9 89.0 92.0 91.3 92.3 69.3 79.6 85.7 76.2 86.0 92.8 100.0 103.1 108.6 111.6 111.6 111.3 111.8 112.0 112.0 111.9 113.2 113.4 114.0 114.3 113.9 114.2 113.6 Selected high-technology 1 56.5 67.0 76.9 67.5 81.5 91.5 100.0 110.6 122.8 125.4 124.8 124.4 124.2 125.1 126.9 124.8 127.0 129.1 129.5 129.7 129.4 129.8 129.3 Transportation equipment Total 95.8 101.7 91.0 74.6 86.5 90.5 100.0 105.1 111.2 114.8 113.2 117.5 115.8 115.7 116.1 115.1 115.5 116.2 117.0 115.6 116.3 114.1 117.4 1 Computers and peripheral equipment, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 Motor vehicles and parts 107.1 106.3 85.1 62.3 82.7 90.4 100.0 107.2 115.7 122.7 119.9 128.6 124.5 124.9 126.1 124.1 124.1 126.6 127.6 125.9 127.5 122.0 129.2 Apparel 252.3 202.3 157.2 112.8 109.5 103.0 100.0 92.6 90.9 91.0 90.1 91.2 91.4 90.9 89.0 90.0 89.5 84.0 85.7 85.4 82.2 81.9 80.7 Printing and related support activities 128.5 131.1 122.7 102.8 102.7 101.0 100.0 100.2 100.3 102.2 101.7 102.1 102.9 102.7 103.2 103.5 103.3 103.5 103.2 101.5 100.7 99.4 100.5 Chemicals 111.9 117.5 108.6 98.1 101.3 101.3 100.0 96.6 95.8 98.0 97.9 98.1 97.3 97.7 98.3 98.9 98.2 99.2 98.6 99.6 98.7 98.9 98.3 Food 101.3 101.9 100.6 100.0 100.4 100.2 100.0 102.0 102.2 103.1 102.3 102.9 103.6 103.8 102.8 103.6 103.1 104.9 104.1 104.1 103.8 104.9 105.0 New Construction [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Private Period 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2015: June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2016: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr r ��������� May r �������� June p ������� Total new construction expenditures Residential Total 1,161.3 1,148.0 1,077.4 906.5 809.3 788.3 850.5 906.4 1,005.6 1,112.4 1,130.5 1,135.9 1,145.2 1,152.1 1,134.4 1,135.5 1,133.7 1,144.9 1,157.7 1,176.4 1,142.5 1,140.9 1,133.5 New housing Total 1 905.9 858.9 768.6 591.6 505.3 501.9 571.1 635.7 729.5 823.5 829.9 838.3 848.6 858.9 845.7 853.7 844.1 849.7 858.1 879.0 854.6 856.6 851.0 Federal and State and local Nonresidential 607.8 488.8 359.2 247.5 242.0 244.1 269.8 323.4 369.8 433.7 434.5 437.3 443.0 449.7 445.4 449.5 450.1 450.0 455.7 468.4 445.5 445.9 445.8 Total 468.8 354.1 230.1 133.9 127.3 123.2 154.5 202.3 235.2 285.2 280.0 284.0 293.7 300.6 304.6 305.7 306.8 306.4 307.2 308.3 302.2 301.1 299.4 Lodging 298.1 370.0 409.4 344.1 263.3 257.8 301.4 312.3 359.7 389.9 395.5 401.0 405.5 409.2 400.4 404.2 393.9 399.7 402.4 410.6 409.1 410.7 405.2 Commercial (including farm) Office 17.6 27.5 35.4 25.4 11.2 8.4 10.2 13.0 16.3 21.2 22.8 21.7 23.0 23.1 22.1 22.1 22.3 23.1 24.3 25.8 25.9 26.6 26.8 45.7 53.8 55.5 37.3 24.4 23.7 27.4 30.1 38.9 47.2 47.5 49.2 49.5 49.6 48.8 52.0 50.2 50.7 54.6 55.8 56.4 56.5 56.9 Manufacturing 73.4 85.9 82.7 51.1 37.2 39.2 44.3 50.9 60.9 64.3 62.7 63.5 64.6 64.9 66.6 65.0 67.3 68.9 68.3 68.8 68.0 68.6 67.5 Other 2 32.3 40.2 53.6 57.4 40.6 39.8 46.8 49.9 58.1 77.5 78.8 79.3 80.4 82.1 80.0 79.0 72.4 74.5 74.0 76.4 74.1 73.9 70.6 129.2 162.7 182.3 173.0 149.9 146.7 172.6 168.3 185.5 179.7 183.7 187.3 188.0 189.5 182.9 186.0 181.7 182.4 181.3 183.8 184.7 185.0 183.5 New houses sold New houses for sale at end of period 3 255.4 289.1 308.7 314.9 304.0 286.4 279.3 270.7 276.1 288.9 300.6 297.6 296.7 293.2 288.7 281.8 289.6 295.2 299.6 297.4 287.9 284.3 282.5 1 Includes residential improvements, not shown separately. 2 Includes health care, educational, communication, and power, among other categories not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census). New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates [Thousands of units or houses, except as noted] New housing units authorized 2 New housing units started Type of structure Period Total 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 1,800.9 1,355.0 905.5 554.0 586.9 608.8 780.6 924.9 1,003.3 1,111.8 1 unit 1,465.4 1,046.0 622.0 445.1 471.2 430.6 535.3 617.6 647.9 714.5 Type of structure 2–4 units 1 42.7 31.7 17.5 11.6 11.4 10.9 11.4 13.6 13.7 11.5 5 units or more Total 292.8 277.3 266.0 97.3 104.3 167.3 233.9 293.7 341.7 385.8 1,838.9 1,398.4 905.4 583.0 604.6 624.1 829.7 990.8 1,052.1 1,182.6 1 unit 1,378.2 979.9 575.6 441.1 447.3 418.5 518.7 620.8 640.3 696.0 2–4 units 5 units or more New housing units completed Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 4 76.6 59.6 34.4 20.7 22.0 21.6 25.9 29.0 29.9 32.1 384.1 359.0 295.4 121.1 135.3 184.0 285.1 341.1 382.0 454.5 1,979.4 1,502.8 1,119.7 794.4 651.7 584.9 649.2 764.4 883.8 968.2 1,051 776 485 375 323 306 368 429 437 501 536 497 353 234 190 151 150 187 212 235 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.6 10.2 9.5 8.7 8.3 7.6 7.1 34 30 30 38 35 29 35 35 33 34 32 28 29 598 418 426 383 415 522 428 426 396 318 357 377 386 966 994 963 1,010 984 973 1,033 1,056 1,025 1,063 952 1,021 1,147 472 498 505 457 478 508 538 526 525 537 572 572 592 216 215 217 221 225 230 235 239 242 244 241 241 244 6.8 �������������������� �������������������� 7.3 �������������������� �������������������� 7.0 �������������������� �������������������� 7.0 �������������������� �������������������� 6.7 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 2015: June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2016: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar r �������� Apr r ��������� May r �������� June p ������� 1,213 1,147 1,132 1,189 1,073 1,171 1,160 1,128 1,213 1,113 1,155 1,135 1,189 686 760 731 743 714 786 765 775 845 751 764 745 778 ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� 513 376 394 435 347 379 378 335 356 353 378 386 392 1,334 1,142 1,166 1,129 1,175 1,286 1,201 1,188 1,162 1,077 1,130 1,136 1,153 702 694 710 708 725 735 738 727 733 725 741 731 738 1 Monthly data do not meet publication standards because tests for identifiable and stable seasonality do not meet reliability standards. 2 Based on approximately 20,100 permit-issuing places beginning with 2014 and 19,300 beginning with 2004. Using the 2004 universe, the total for 2014 is 1,046.4. 3 Seasonally adjusted. 4 Quarterly data are three-month averages. Annual data are averages of quarterly data. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census). 19 Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade In May, according to preliminary estimates, manufacturing and trade sales rose 0.3 percent. In June, according to advance estimates, manufacturing and trade inventories rose $2.7 billion, retail sales rose 0.7 percent, and retail inventories rose $3.0 billion. Retail and food services sales rose 0.6 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 1,900 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 650 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES 1,800 600 RETAIL INVENTORIES 550 1,700 500 1,600 RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES SALES 450 1,500 400 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE SALES 1,400 RETAIL SALES 350 1,300 300 1,200 RATIO* 1.70 INVENTORY/SALES RATIO 1,100 1.60 1.50 1,000 RETAIL 1.40 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE 1.30 1.20 900 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 2015 2016 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars, except ratios; seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Manufacturing and trade 1 Period Sales 2 2006 �������������������� 1,069,032 2007 �������������������� 1,128,176 2008 �������������������� 1,160,786 2009 �������������������� 988,963 2010 �������������������� 1,089,143 2011 �������������������� 1,206,723 2012 �������������������� 1,267,248 2013 �������������������� 1,302,966 2014 �������������������� 1,339,701 2015 �������������������� 1,303,996 r 2015: May �������� 1,310,766 r June ������� 1,317,480 July ���������� 1,315,403 Aug ���������� 1,304,133 Sept ��������� 1,304,345 Oct ����������� 1,301,006 Nov ���������� 1,296,965 Dec ����������� 1,289,639 2016: Jan ����������� 1,279,099 Feb ����������� 1,275,814 Mar ���������� 1,278,267 Apr r ��������� 1,288,674 p May ������� 1,292,199 p June ������� ����������������������� Inventories 3 Inventory/sales ratio 4 Wholesale Sales 2 1,407,550 1.28 328,438 1,486,039 1.28 351,956 1,464,379 1.31 377,078 1,329,577 1.38 319,236 1,447,968 1.27 361,634 1,561,441 1.26 407,217 1,649,980 1.27 434,002 1,714,804 1.29 447,237 1,777,829 1.31 463,265 1,801,193 1.38 443,332 1,792,015 1.37 446,464 1,804,424 1.37 447,899 1,802,652 1.37 446,811 1,802,092 1.38 441,825 1,807,638 1.39 443,480 1,803,740 1.39 443,578 1,800,901 1.39 438,064 1,801,193 1.40 436,605 1,800,048 1.41 428,448 1,798,344 1.41 427,568 1,804,490 1.41 429,952 1,807,046 1.40 433,212 1,809,984 1.40 435,473 1,812,666 ����������������������� ����������������������� Inventories 3 Retail Inventory/sales ratio 4 399,056 1.17 424,640 1.17 445,208 1.20 397,020 1.28 441,058 1.14 485,328 1.15 520,341 1.17 541,205 1.18 576,240 1.21 587,178 1.32 586,181 1.31 589,584 1.32 588,091 1.32 588,696 1.33 590,904 1.33 589,595 1.33 588,101 1.34 587,178 1.34 586,160 1.37 582,888 1.36 584,254 1.36 588,382 1.36 589,079 1.35 589,311 ����������������������� 1 See page 21 for manufacturing. 2 Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. 3 Seasonally adjusted, end of period. 4 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census). 20 Sales 2 322,631 332,932 327,959 301,079 318,237 341,849 358,519 371,584 386,362 392,359 392,927 393,054 395,666 394,781 394,883 394,545 395,480 396,723 394,878 395,126 393,775 399,134 r 399,837 402,609 Inventories 3 486,253 500,341 476,899 428,900 454,246 470,144 504,651 542,192 558,626 587,971 566,968 571,953 575,575 577,448 583,605 583,697 585,290 587,971 589,791 593,701 598,925 598,209 601,238 604,236 Chart 20 - Jul 2016 Retail and food Inventory/sales services sales 2 4 ratio 1.49 1.49 1.52 1.47 1.39 1.35 1.37 1.41 1.43 1.46 1.44 1.46 1.45 1.46 1.48 1.48 1.48 1.48 1.49 1.50 1.52 1.50 1.50 1.50 357,863 369,978 365,982 338,747 357,149 383,131 402,199 416,770 434,295 444,170 444,400 444,877 447,559 446,970 447,207 447,066 448,454 450,448 448,041 449,294 447,907 453,397 r 454,359 456,978 Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders In June, manufacturers’ shipments rose, while inventories and new and unfilled orders fell. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 580 540 SHIPMENTS 500 460 TOTAL 420 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 700 INVENTORIES 660 620 580 TOTAL 540 500 460 DURABLE GOODS 420 380 340 NONDURABLE GOODS 300 380 340 260 300 220 260 DURABLE GOODS 180 NONDURABLE GOODS 220 140 180 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 580 540 NEW ORDERS 500 460 TOTAL 420 380 340 140 RATIO* 1.60 INVENTORY/SHIPMENTS RATIO 1.50 DURABLE GOODS 300 260 1.40 220 1.30 180 1.20 1.10 140 2012 2014 2013 2015 2016 2013 2012 2014 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 2015 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturers’ shipments 1 Manufacturers’ inventories 2 Manufacturers’ new orders 1 Chart 21- Jul 2016 Durable goods Period Total Durable goods 2016 Nondurable goods Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, nondefense Manufacturers’ unfilled orders 2 Manufacturers’ inventory/ shipments ratio 3 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2015: June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2016: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May r �������� June p ������� 417,963 443,288 455,750 368,648 409,273 457,658 474,727 484,145 490,074 468,306 476,527 472,926 467,527 465,982 462,883 463,421 456,311 455,773 453,120 454,540 456,328 456,889 460,027 213,516 223,919 218,056 171,402 190,059 206,591 218,965 224,651 232,628 235,052 237,213 238,164 236,896 237,050 234,118 236,149 231,003 234,743 232,924 231,225 232,208 231,421 232,404 204,447 219,369 237,694 197,246 219,214 251,067 255,762 259,495 257,447 233,254 239,314 234,762 230,631 228,932 228,765 227,272 225,308 221,030 220,196 223,315 224,120 225,468 227,623 522,241 561,058 542,272 503,657 552,664 605,969 624,988 631,407 642,963 626,044 642,887 638,986 635,948 633,129 630,448 627,510 626,044 624,097 621,755 621,311 620,455 619,667 619,119 317,357 334,520 329,751 294,639 321,356 352,642 367,396 370,943 390,237 388,040 395,410 393,152 392,183 390,375 388,396 386,932 388,040 386,984 385,682 385,062 383,677 382,258 381,252 204,884 226,538 212,521 209,018 231,308 253,327 257,592 260,464 252,726 238,004 247,477 245,834 243,765 242,754 242,052 240,578 238,004 237,113 236,073 236,249 236,778 237,409 237,867 424,137 449,752 454,344 350,478 407,992 459,305 475,809 485,281 494,123 462,797 474,013 471,392 460,477 452,625 463,278 459,779 448,710 452,786 444,277 451,814 459,849 454,295 447,425 219,691 230,383 216,650 153,232 188,778 208,238 220,047 225,786 236,676 229,543 234,699 236,630 229,846 223,693 234,513 232,507 223,402 231,756 224,081 228,499 235,729 228,827 219,802 74,114 79,790 73,286 48,926 62,309 71,753 77,674 80,831 81,975 73,726 76,861 78,314 75,189 68,289 78,254 72,930 61,792 74,141 68,288 68,490 74,184 72,920 64,835 798,188 946,680 995,368 826,011 871,124 954,457 1,014,065 1,071,455 1,163,928 1,135,712 1,149,850 1,151,082 1,147,266 1,137,078 1,140,503 1,140,188 1,135,712 1,135,979 1,130,286 1,130,702 1,137,162 1,137,551 1,127,973 1.20 1.22 1.27 1.39 1.28 1.29 1.30 1.30 1.31 1.36 1.35 1.35 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.35 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.36 1.36 1.35 1 Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. Shipments are the same as sales. 2 Seasonally adjusted, end of period. 3 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. Note: Manufacturers’ nondurable new orders (not shown) are the same as nondurable shipments. Also, there are no unfilled nondurable orders; data shown for total unfilled orders are durable unfilled orders. Total and durable shipments and inventories include data on semiconductors; new and unfilled orders do not. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census). 21 PRICES Producer Prices The producer price index for final demand rose 0.5 percent in June. Prices for final demand goods rose 0.8 percent and prices for final demand services rose 0.4 percent. INDEX, NOV. 2009=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, NOV. 2009=100 (RATIO SCALE) 125 125 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED FINAL DEMAND 120 120 FINAL DEMAND GOODS 115 115 FINAL DEMAND 110 110 105 105 FINAL DEMAND SERVICES 100 100 95 95 2010 2011 2012 2014 2013 2015 2016 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [November 2009=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Final demand goods Period Rel. imp. 4 ����������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2015: June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2016: Jan ����������� Feb r ��������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� Total final demand 1 100.0 ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� 101.8 105.7 107.7 109.1 110.9 109.9 110.4 110.5 110.3 109.8 109.6 109.7 109.6 110.0 109.7 109.5 109.7 110.1 110.7 Final demand services Total Foods 2 Energy Less food and energy Total Trade 3 Transportation and warehousing Other 33.629 ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� 102.8 109.9 111.7 112.6 114.0 109.1 110.5 110.2 109.6 108.5 108.2 108.1 107.4 106.9 106.1 106.4 106.6 107.3 108.2 5.564 ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� 103.7 112.5 115.9 117.8 121.6 118.4 119.3 118.3 118.5 118.1 117.3 117.0 116.0 117.1 117.2 115.6 115.2 115.6 116.6 5.238 ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� 107.2 126.2 126.3 125.3 124.2 98.6 103.8 103.1 100.4 95.1 94.9 95.0 91.7 87.8 83.5 85.9 86.1 88.5 92.1 22.827 ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� 101.4 104.9 106.8 107.9 109.5 109.9 110.3 110.3 110.1 110.1 109.8 109.7 109.8 109.9 109.9 110.1 110.4 110.7 110.7 64.284 ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� 101.3 103.4 105.4 107.1 109.0 110.0 110.1 110.4 110.3 110.2 110.0 110.1 110.4 111.4 111.3 110.9 111.0 111.2 111.7 20.339 ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� 101.7 104.0 106.7 108.2 110.2 111.6 111.5 112.2 111.7 111.9 111.7 111.8 112.2 114.1 113.5 112.4 112.3 113.7 114.5 4.986 ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� 103.2 110.0 114.2 115.3 117.7 115.3 115.7 115.6 114.6 114.6 114.5 114.6 113.7 114.3 114.0 113.3 112.9 112.2 112.8 38.959 ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� 100.9 102.5 103.9 105.8 107.5 108.7 108.8 108.9 109.1 108.9 108.8 108.9 109.1 109.8 109.9 109.9 110.2 110.0 110.4 Processed goods Final for intermediate demand demand (1982=100) less foods, energy, Less and food trade Total and (Aug. 2013 energy =100) 2 68.859 ���������������� ���������������� ���������������� ���������������� ���������������� ���������������� ���������������� ���������������� 101.5 102.1 102.3 102.4 102.4 102.3 102.1 102.2 102.3 102.6 102.7 102.7 103.0 102.9 103.2 100.0 164.0 170.7 188.3 172.5 183.4 199.9 200.7 200.8 201.9 188.0 190.5 190.0 188.5 186.0 185.3 184.4 182.4 180.7 179.0 179.0 179.5 181.0 182.7 75.517 163.8 168.4 180.9 173.4 180.8 192.0 192.6 193.8 195.2 189.4 190.2 190.0 189.1 188.1 187.6 187.2 186.5 185.7 185.2 184.9 185.4 186.3 186.6 Unprocessed goods Chart 22 - Jul 2016 for intermediate demand (1982=100) Services for intermediNonfood ate materials demand Total less energy 100.0 184.8 207.1 251.8 175.2 212.2 249.4 241.4 246.7 249.3 189.1 201.0 193.9 187.1 182.9 180.6 172.8 166.0 166.3 163.1 166.2 170.6 172.8 177.6 24.805 244.5 282.6 324.4 248.4 329.1 390.4 369.6 351.2 345.7 296.0 304.9 300.4 288.8 288.2 281.5 271.2 268.7 267.3 269.0 274.5 284.2 296.0 295.0 100.0 ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� 101.1 103.2 105.3 107.2 108.9 110.2 110.4 110.7 110.9 110.3 109.8 109.9 110.1 111.5 111.7 111.4 111.5 111.3 112.2 1 Includes final demand construction, not shown separately. 2 Does not include food and beverages for immediate consumption, which are defined as the service of preparing meals, snacks, and beverages to customer order for immediate consumption. 3 Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers. 4 Relative importance, December 2015. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 22 Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers In June, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.2 percent; it rose 0.3 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index rose 1.0 percent from its year earlier level. INDEX, 1982-84 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1982-84 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) 250 250 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 240 240 CONSUMER PRICES—ALL ITEMS 230 230 220 220 210 210 200 200 190 190 180 180 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 2016 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1982–84=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] All items Period Rel. imp. 4 ����������� 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2015: June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2016: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� Not seasonally Seasonally adjusted adjusted (NSA) 100.0 201.6 207.342 215.303 214.537 218.056 224.939 229.594 232.957 236.736 237.017 238.638 238.654 238.316 237.945 237.838 237.336 236.525 236.916 237.111 238.132 239.261 240.236 241.038 ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� 237.423 237.734 237.703 237.489 237.949 238.302 238.041 238.107 237.707 237.920 238.890 239.410 239.927 All items less food and energy Total 1 79.153 205.9 210.729 215.572 219.235 221.337 225.008 229.755 233.806 237.897 242.247 242.089 242.464 242.753 243.224 243.701 244.139 244.516 245.232 245.925 246.095 246.574 247.074 247.495 Shelter 33.162 232.1 240.611 246.666 249.354 248.396 251.646 257.083 263.056 270.513 278.803 278.260 279.232 279.894 280.774 281.515 282.203 282.873 283.725 284.529 285.007 285.815 286.841 287.806 Medical care 2 8.435 336.2 351.054 364.065 375.613 388.436 400.258 414.924 425.134 435.292 446.752 446.002 446.854 447.198 447.904 450.691 451.987 452.492 454.677 456.996 457.478 458.924 460.514 462.257 Apparel 3.177 119.5 118.998 118.907 120.078 119.503 122.111 126.265 127.411 127.514 125.903 125.775 126.011 126.311 125.789 125.182 125.046 124.754 125.476 127.514 126.084 125.765 126.769 126.291 Food New vehicles 3.705 137.6 136.254 134.194 135.623 138.005 141.883 144.232 145.783 146.275 147.135 147.462 147.258 147.242 147.193 147.090 147.111 147.047 147.487 147.825 147.769 147.277 147.127 146.863 Energy Total 1 At home Away from home 13.796 195.2 202.916 214.106 217.955 219.625 227.842 233.777 237.037 242.725 247.235 246.987 247.207 247.703 248.504 248.695 248.489 248.078 248.108 248.510 248.023 248.468 247.977 247.790 8.035 193.1 201.245 214.125 215.124 215.836 226.201 231.774 233.869 239.456 242.250 242.006 242.333 242.799 243.219 243.182 242.547 241.666 241.151 241.581 240.404 240.727 239.548 238.940 5.761 199.4 206.659 215.769 223.272 226.114 231.401 237.986 243.068 248.981 256.101 255.846 255.905 256.449 257.830 258.363 258.805 259.097 259.958 260.319 260.883 261.517 262.074 262.529 Total 1, 2 7.051 196.9 207.723 236.666 193.126 211.449 243.909 246.080 244.409 243.583 202.895 209.126 209.068 205.507 197.914 198.693 199.203 193.710 188.360 177.146 178.828 184.991 187.297 189.782 Chart 23 - Jul 2016 Gasoline 3.258 219.9 237.959 277.457 201.555 238.594 301.694 311.470 302.577 290.889 212.007 225.362 226.975 219.336 203.776 205.639 207.298 197.411 188.021 163.510 167.083 180.552 184.638 190.716 C-CPI-U (Dec. 1999=100, NSA) 3 ������������������� 117.0 119.957 124.433 123.850 125.615 129.453 131.976 ������������������� ������������������� ������������������� 136.391 136.351 136.073 135.717 135.589 135.217 134.607 134.732 134.666 135.412 136.181 136.814 137.297 1 Includes other items not shown separately. 2 Commodities and services. 3 Chained consumer price index (C-CPI-U) reflects the effect of substitution that consumers make across item categories in response to changes in relative prices. 4 Relative importance, May 2016. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 23 Changes in Producer Prices [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Processed goods Unprocessed goods Change from year earlier Final for intermediate for intermediate (NSA) demand demand demand Services less for foods, intermeTransporLess Nonfood energy, diate tation food Total Final Final materials and demand Trade and Other Total and Total final demand demand less trade wareenergy demand goods services energy housing Final demand goods Period Total final demand 1 Total Foods Energy Final demand services Less food and energy Total Change, December to December, NSA 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� ����������� ����������� ����������� ����������� 2.8 3.2 1.9 1.2 .9 –1.1 ���������� ���������� ���������� ���������� 4.7 4.7 1.4 .8 –1.2 –3.8 ���������� ���������� ���������� ���������� 5.3 5.7 4.1 –.8 4.4 –5.2 ���������� ���������� ���������� ���������� 12.7 9.2 –1.3 .9 –13.2 –16.4 ����������� ����������� ����������� ����������� 2.4 3.1 1.4 1.3 1.1 –.1 ���������� ���������� ���������� ���������� 1.7 2.3 2.2 1.3 2.1 .2 ���������� ���������� ���������� ���������� 2.1 2.3 3.8 –.4 4.0 .0 ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� 4.3 6.7 2.7 2.0 .8 –3.5 ���������� ���������� ���������� ���������� 1.3 1.8 1.4 2.0 1.4 .8 ����������� ����������� ����������� ����������� ����������� ����������� ����������� ����������� 1.3 .3 2.8 7.1 –2.3 2.9 6.4 5.7 .4 .1 –2.6 –6.6 4.5 3.3 2.9 –.1 4.7 3.8 .6 .7 –.1 –3.8 –4.7 19.8 –24.6 13.3 16.1 6.6 1.4 –1.9 –8.7 –25.3 17.0 15.6 –24.1 28.9 27.6 2.4 –1.6 –5.6 –5.3 –18.5 �������������� �������������� �������������� �������������� 1.4 2.0 2.9 1.0 1.8 .5 ����������� ����������� ����������� ����������� ����������� 3.8 1.9 1.3 1.6 –.9 ����������� ����������� ����������� ����������� ����������� 6.9 1.6 .8 1.2 –4.3 ������������ ������������ ������������ ������������ ������������ 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.8 .9 0.3 .1 .0 –.1 –.2 .1 .1 .3 .1 .0 .3 –.1 .3 0.5 –.3 –.8 –1.3 –.4 –.5 –1.1 –.9 –.9 .0 .3 .8 .9 0.0 –.1 –.5 –.5 –.3 –.2 –.4 –.4 –.3 –.2 .3 .5 .2 0.3 –3.5 –3.5 –2.2 –1.3 –4.3 –3.9 .2 –1.9 1.9 2.6 1.3 2.8 0.2 –1.5 –3.9 –.2 –2.3 –3.7 –.9 –.5 .6 2.0 3.5 4.2 –.3 0.1 .3 .2 –.5 –.5 .1 .2 1.3 .2 –.3 .1 –.2 .8 –0.5 –.7 –1.0 –1.1 –1.4 –1.3 –1.1 .0 .1 –.1 .0 –.1 .3 –3.7 –3.8 –4.3 –5.1 –4.8 –4.4 –3.8 –2.4 –2.8 –2.6 –1.9 –2.6 –2.2 1.1 .8 .7 .9 .3 .4 .2 1.2 1.6 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.5 Change, month to month 2015: June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2016: Jan ����������� Feb r ��������� Mar r �������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� 0.3 .1 –.2 –.5 –.2 .1 –.1 .4 –.3 –.2 .2 .4 .5 0.5 –.3 –.5 –1.0 –.3 –.1 –.6 –.5 –.7 .3 .2 .7 .8 0.4 –.8 .2 –.3 –.7 –.3 –.9 .9 .1 –1.4 –.3 .3 .9 0.7 –.7 –2.6 –5.3 –.2 .1 –3.5 –4.3 –4.9 2.9 .2 2.8 4.1 0.4 .0 –.2 .0 –.3 –.1 .1 .1 .0 .2 .3 .3 .0 0.3 .3 –.1 –.1 –.2 .1 .3 .9 –.1 –.4 .1 .2 .4 0.3 .6 –.4 .2 –.2 .1 .4 1.7 –.5 –1.0 –.1 1.2 .7 0.2 –.1 –.9 .0 –.1 .1 –.8 .5 –.3 –.6 –.4 –.6 .5 0.3 .1 .2 –.2 –.1 .1 .2 .6 .1 .0 .3 –.2 .4 1 Includes final demand construction, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] All items less food and energy Period All items 1 Total 1 Shelter Medical care 2 Apparel Food New vehicles Total 1 At home Addendum: All items, percent change (annual rate) Energy Away from home Total 1, 2 Gasoline C-CPI-U (NSA) 3 From previous quarter 4 From 3 months earlier From 6 months earlier From year earlier (NSA) Change, December to December, NSA 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2.5 4.1 .1 2.7 1.5 3.0 1.7 1.5 .8 .7 2.6 2.4 1.8 1.8 .8 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.6 2.1 4.2 3.1 1.9 .3 .4 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.9 3.2 3.6 5.2 2.6 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.2 2.0 3.0 2.6 0.9 –.3 –1.0 1.9 –1.1 4.6 1.8 .6 –2.0 –.9 2015: June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2016: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� 0.2 .1 .0 –.1 .2 .1 –.1 .0 –.2 .1 .4 .2 .2 0.2 .2 .1 .2 .2 .2 .2 .3 .3 .1 .2 .2 .2 0.3 .3 .2 .3 .3 .2 .2 .3 .3 .2 .3 .4 .3 –0.1 .2 .1 .2 .6 .3 .1 .5 .5 .1 .3 .3 .4 –0.2 .2 .2 –.4 –.5 –.1 –.2 .6 1.6 –1.1 –.3 .8 –.4 –0.9 –.3 –3.2 4.9 –.2 3.2 1.6 .4 .5 .2 2.1 4.9 5.9 –.5 1.5 4.7 1.8 1.1 3.4 .8 1.4 5.6 6.6 –2.4 1.7 6.0 1.3 .4 3.7 –.4 3.2 4.0 5.0 1.9 1.3 2.9 2.5 2.1 3.0 2.6 2.9 17.4 –21.3 18.2 7.7 6.6 .5 .5 –10.6 –12.6 6.4 29.6 –43.1 53.5 13.8 9.9 1.7 –1.0 –21.0 –19.7 2.3 3.7 .2 2.5 1.3 2.9 1.5 1.3 .5 .3 ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� �������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� 3.2 2.8 3.8 –.4 1.6 3.2 2.1 1.5 1.6 .1 0.3 .1 .2 .2 .0 –.3 –.4 –.2 .2 –.5 .1 –.5 –.3 0.2 .0 .2 .5 .2 .2 .1 .3 .1 .2 .2 .2 .2 0.7 .0 –1.7 –3.7 .4 .3 –2.8 –2.8 –6.0 .9 3.4 1.2 1.3 1.5 .7 –3.4 –7.1 .9 .8 –4.8 –4.8 –13.0 2.2 8.1 2.3 3.3 0.3 .0 –.2 –.3 –.1 –.3 –.5 .1 .0 .6 .6 .5 .4 2.4 ������������� ������������� 1.4 ������������� ������������� .8 ������������� ������������� –.3 ������������� ������������� 2.5 2.7 2.6 1.4 .1 .4 1.0 .9 .3 –1.0 –.2 1.3 2.9 3.4 0.8 2.4 2.0 1.4 1.5 1.2 .5 .3 .0 .4 .8 .9 1.6 .1 .2 .2 .0 .2 .5 .7 1.4 1.0 .9 1.1 1.0 1.0 Change, month to month 0.1 –.1 .0 .0 –.1 .0 .0 .3 .2 .0 –.3 –.1 –.2 0.3 .1 .2 .3 .1 –.1 –.2 .0 .2 –.2 .2 –.2 –.1 1 Includes other items not shown separately. 2 Commodities and services. 3 Chained consumer price index (C-CPI-U) reflects the effect of substitution that consumers make across item categories in response to changes in relative prices. 4 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 24 Prices Received and Paid by Farmers In June, prices received by farmers fell 1.4 percent and prices paid by farmers rose 0.4 percent. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) INDEX, 2011=100 (RATIO SCALE) 130 INDEX, 2011=100 (RATIO SCALE) 130 120 120 PRICES PAID 110 110 100 100 PRICES RECEIVED 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 1 RATIO1 140 RATIO 140 RATIO 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 2008 2010 2009 2011 2012 2014 2013 2016 2015 1RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [2011=100; not seasonally adjusted] Prices received by farmers 1 Period 2006 ��������������������������������������������������� 2007 ��������������������������������������������������� 2008 ��������������������������������������������������� 2009 ��������������������������������������������������� 2010 ��������������������������������������������������� 2011 ��������������������������������������������������� 2012 ��������������������������������������������������� 2013 ��������������������������������������������������� 2014 ��������������������������������������������������� 2015 r ������������������������������������������������� 2015: June r �������������������������������������� July r ��������������������������������������� Aug ����������������������������������������� Sept r ��������������������������������������� Oct r ����������������������������������������� Nov r ���������������������������������������� Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2016: Jan ������������������������������������������ Feb r ���������������������������������������� Mar r ��������������������������������������� Apr r ���������������������������������������� May r ��������������������������������������� June ���������������������������������������� Agricultural production 70.7 83.6 91.7 80.6 86.8 100.0 105.0 107.0 107.7 98.4 104.6 99.2 102.1 97.5 88.8 91.8 89.8 89.2 92.4 92.7 93.0 94.8 93.5 Crop production 68.0 81.0 95.9 85.7 87.0 100.0 107.0 105.7 92.0 85.5 88.2 85.9 87.8 87.0 79.7 82.0 83.9 80.7 84.1 82.9 86.5 90.6 87.3 Chart 25 - Jul 2016 Prices paid by farmers Livestock production 73.2 85.7 86.1 73.8 85.7 100.0 102.5 108.5 128.8 113.4 121.1 115.3 117.1 109.3 104.2 105.2 97.2 99.9 99.2 100.2 97.8 97.9 98.6 All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates (PPITW) 2 73.9 79.0 90.0 87.3 90.0 100.0 104.4 106.3 112.0 110.0 111.2 110.8 110.1 108.8 108.8 107.7 106.2 107.3 107.0 107.1 106.6 107.1 107.5 Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates (PITW) 71.6 77.2 89.5 86.4 89.0 100.0 104.8 106.7 113.1 110.8 112.1 111.6 110.8 109.3 109.3 108.0 106.4 107.6 107.2 107.3 106.6 107.1 107.6 Production items 68.9 74.6 88.3 84.8 87.7 100.0 105.4 107.4 114.1 110.5 112.2 111.5 110.6 108.9 108.6 107.1 105.2 106.4 105.8 106.0 105.3 105.8 106.3 Ratio of prices received by farmers to PPITW 96 106 102 92 96 100 100 100 96 90 95 89 93 89 82 85 85 83 86 87 87 89 86 1 Annual indexes for 2011 forward reflect revised methodology. See Agricultural Price Program Update, January 2015 for details. 2 Includes items not shown separately. Note: These indexes are also available on a 1910-14=100 basis, as required by statute. Source: Department of Agriculture (National Agricultural Statistics Service). 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock and Debt Measures In June, M2 rose. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 13,200 12,400 11,600 10,800 10,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 13,200 12,400 11,600 10,800 10,000 9,200 9,200 M2 8,400 8,400 7,600 7,600 6,800 6,800 6,000 6,000 5,200 5,200 4,400 4,400 3,600 3,600 3,200 3,200 2,800 2,800 M1 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 *AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 2016 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures, except debt end-of-period basis; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Chart 26 - Jul 2016 Period 2006: Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2007: Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2008: Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2009: Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2010: Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2011: Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2012: Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2013: Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2014: Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2015: Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2015: June r �������������������������������������� July r ��������������������������������������� Aug r ���������������������������������������� Sept r ��������������������������������������� Oct r ����������������������������������������� Nov r ���������������������������������������� Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2016: Jan r ���������������������������������������� Feb r ���������������������������������������� Mar r ��������������������������������������� Apr r ���������������������������������������� May r �������������������������������������� June ���������������������������������������� M1 M2 Debt Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers checks, and other checkable deposits M1 plus savings deposits, retail MMMF balances, and small time deposits 1 Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors 2 1,368.2 1,376.5 1,606.8 1,698.5 1,842.5 2,169.8 2,461.4 2,660.3 2,930.2 3,079.7 3,015.0 3,034.2 3,041.2 3,055.5 3,031.8 3,083.4 3,079.7 3,091.0 3,104.0 3,144.6 3,177.2 3,225.4 3,232.3 7,041.4 7,444.2 8,166.6 8,471.0 8,775.2 9,636.2 10,428.7 10,994.7 11,646.9 12,313.5 11,975.3 12,036.1 12,100.4 12,157.7 12,180.7 12,266.3 12,313.5 12,436.5 12,485.2 12,572.8 12,654.2 12,733.5 12,811.3 30,698.5 33,154.4 34,924.4 35,762.5 37,074.7 38,223.1 39,970.7 41,429.2 43,218.1 45,157.5 43,969.4 ��������������������������������������������� ��������������������������������������������� 44,196.0 ��������������������������������������������� ��������������������������������������������� 45,157.5 ��������������������������������������������� ��������������������������������������������� 45,688.1 ��������������������������������������������� ��������������������������������������������� ��������������������������������������������� Percent change From previous period 4 From year or 6 months earlier 3 M1 M2 –0.5 .6 16.7 5.7 8.5 17.8 13.4 8.1 10.1 5.1 5.8 7.1 3.8 4.3 2.5 6.3 4.3 3.7 4.1 5.8 9.6 9.2 9.9 Debt 5.9 5.7 9.7 3.7 3.6 9.8 8.2 5.4 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.0 5.4 4.9 5.7 5.6 6.7 6.4 6.8 7.8 7.6 8.1 8.1 7.2 3.5 2.2 4.4 4.4 5.3 6.0 4.4 8.8 4.5 ������������������������������� ������������������������������� 2.2 ������������������������������� ������������������������������� 8.8 ������������������������������� ������������������������������� 4.8 ������������������������������� ������������������������������� ������������������������������� 1 Money market mutual fund (MMMF). Savings deposits include money market deposit accounts (MMDA). 2 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. Quarterly data shown in last month of quarter. End-of-year data are for fourth quarter. 3 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a simple annual rate. 4 Annual changes are from fourth quarter to fourth quarter. Quarterly changes are from previous quarter at an annual rate. Note: See p. 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 26 Components of Money Stock [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period 2006: Dec r ��������� 2007: Dec r ��������� 2008: Dec r ��������� 2009: Dec r ��������� 2010: Dec r ��������� 2011: Dec r ��������� 2012: Dec r ��������� 2013: Dec r ��������� 2014: Dec r ��������� 2015: Dec r ��������� 2015: June r ������� July r �������� Aug r ��������� Sept r �������� Oct r ���������� Nov r ��������� Dec r ��������� 2016: Jan r ��������� Feb r ��������� Mar r �������� Apr r ��������� May r �������� June ��������� Currency 750.2 760.6 816.3 863.7 918.8 1,001.5 1,090.5 1,160.2 1,252.2 1,337.9 1,295.4 1,302.0 1,310.4 1,319.1 1,325.8 1,333.7 1,337.9 1,345.0 1,350.0 1,358.8 1,365.7 1,375.7 1,383.1 Nonbank travelers checks Other checkable deposits (OCDs) Demand deposits At commercial banks Total 6.7 6.3 5.5 5.1 4.7 4.3 3.8 3.5 2.9 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 305.5 303.0 472.8 448.8 519.7 754.5 925.4 1,029.0 1,188.6 1,222.5 1,213.1 1,223.3 1,220.1 1,222.4 1,191.0 1,232.1 1,222.5 1,229.3 1,233.5 1,264.5 1,292.1 1,322.3 1,310.5 305.8 306.5 312.3 380.9 399.3 409.6 441.6 467.5 486.4 516.8 503.8 506.2 508.1 511.4 512.4 515.0 516.8 514.1 518.1 518.9 517.1 525.0 536.4 At thrift institutions 176.7 172.6 178.1 230.9 235.1 233.4 245.2 257.7 267.2 279.2 275.8 276.3 275.2 278.5 277.8 279.6 279.2 277.1 282.1 279.7 277.9 284.1 292.0 129.1 133.9 134.1 150.0 164.3 176.3 196.5 209.8 219.2 237.6 228.0 229.9 232.9 232.9 234.6 235.4 237.6 237.1 235.9 239.2 239.2 240.9 244.4 Savings deposits (including MMDAs) Small-denomination time deposits 1 At commercial banks At commercial banks Total 3,694.9 3,868.4 4,089.4 4,813.1 5,331.3 6,032.0 6,685.0 7,131.5 7,580.9 8,185.1 7,880.3 7,932.7 8,002.1 8,053.0 8,109.6 8,142.4 8,185.1 8,220.5 8,245.6 8,311.1 8,368.3 8,397.7 8,479.3 2,914.3 3,044.1 3,323.6 3,979.5 4,411.8 5,035.9 5,729.1 6,110.7 6,502.1 7,039.2 6,759.3 6,812.6 6,878.8 6,926.3 6,971.8 7,008.4 7,039.2 7,061.7 7,075.2 7,127.8 7,173.1 7,187.3 7,262.5 At thrift institutions 780.6 824.2 765.8 833.5 919.5 996.1 955.9 1,020.8 1,078.8 1,146.0 1,121.0 1,120.1 1,123.3 1,126.6 1,137.8 1,134.1 1,146.0 1,158.8 1,170.4 1,183.3 1,195.2 1,210.5 1,216.8 Total 1,206.1 1,276.1 1,457.9 1,188.3 933.2 775.8 643.7 567.3 519.0 408.4 473.0 460.0 446.6 429.0 421.5 415.9 408.4 403.1 399.0 392.3 389.5 388.3 387.9 781.4 859.6 1,079.8 869.2 662.7 547.1 466.9 423.1 387.5 298.5 349.6 337.8 324.5 307.9 301.5 303.7 298.5 294.3 290.7 284.4 281.2 279.9 279.4 Retail money funds At thrift institutions 424.7 416.5 378.1 319.1 270.6 228.7 176.8 144.2 131.5 109.9 123.4 122.2 122.0 121.1 119.9 112.2 109.9 108.8 108.3 108.0 108.3 108.4 108.5 772.2 923.3 1,012.5 771.1 668.1 658.6 638.6 635.7 616.9 640.3 606.9 609.3 610.5 620.2 617.9 624.6 640.3 722.0 736.6 724.8 719.2 722.0 711.8 Institutional money funds 2 1,396.9 1,969.8 2,469.1 2,265.4 1,902.6 1,768.5 1,747.4 1,782.7 1,810.3 1,837.9 1,823.6 1,844.5 1,870.7 1,836.6 1,857.8 1,854.3 1,837.9 1,738.5 1,754.1 1,801.5 1,804.3 1,816.7 1,830.8 1 Small-denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000. 2 Institutional money funds are not part of non-M1 M2. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base [Averages of daily figures 1; millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted] Reserves of depository institutions Reserve balances maintained Period Total 2006: Dec ������������ 2007: Dec r ���������� 2008: Dec ������������ 2009: Dec ������������ 2010: Dec ������������ 2011: Dec ������������ 2012: Dec r ���������� 2013: Dec ������������ 2014: Dec ������������ 2015: Dec ������������ 2015: July ����������� Aug ����������� Sept ���������� Oct ������������ Nov ����������� Dec ������������ 2016: Jan ������������ Feb r ���������� Mar r ��������� Apr r ���������� May r ��������� June ���������� July ����������� 8,479 8,098 783,631 1,099,831 1,035,074 1,550,043 1,517,425 2,485,248 2,606,700 2,419,774 2,590,841 2,608,263 2,643,958 2,668,193 2,602,104 2,419,774 2,376,108 2,448,797 2,460,382 2,427,737 2,384,089 2,367,024 2,309,659 To satisfy reserve balance requirements 2 That exceed the top of the penalty-free band ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ 75,713 90,852 97,981 100,727 105,413 100,898 98,332 98,290 97,981 105,739 99,391 101,702 106,587 110,769 109,284 111,795 ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ 2,409,535 2,515,848 2,321,793 2,490,114 2,502,851 2,543,060 2,569,860 2,503,815 2,321,793 2,270,368 2,349,406 2,358,680 2,321,150 2,273,320 2,257,741 2,197,864 Reserve balance requirements 3 6,616 6,313 16,312 24,632 28,438 47,838 58,675 69,030 82,770 89,313 91,834 96,142 91,977 89,638 89,572 89,313 96,507 90,677 92,787 97,241 101,151 99,675 102,003 Borrowings from the Federal Reserve Vault cash used to satisfy required reserves 34,803 35,365 37,245 40,619 42,927 48,672 52,959 55,771 59,236 61,413 58,458 57,795 57,321 57,751 58,237 61,413 63,904 62,053 59,303 59,274 59,699 60,455 61,524 Nonborrowed 4 43,091 28,033 167,311 970,523 1,032,512 1,589,189 1,569,588 2,540,849 2,665,835 2,481,082 2,649,113 2,665,823 2,701,023 2,725,750 2,660,226 2,481,082 2,439,935 2,510,816 2,519,664 2,486,949 2,443,710 2,427,350 2,370,978 Monetary base 5 826,731 837,192 1,666,365 2,026,220 2,017,000 2,619,586 2,675,945 3,717,450 3,934,455 3,835,810 3,961,217 3,984,019 4,028,486 4,060,469 4,006,725 3,835,810 3,792,723 3,872,483 3,898,431 3,872,939 3,836,501 3,825,373 3,772,402 Total 6 191 15,430 653,565 169,927 45,488 9,526 795 170 102 106 186 235 256 194 115 106 77 34 21 63 79 130 204 Primary Secondary 111 3,787 88,245 19,025 41 103 12 13 22 38 6 14 9 6 9 38 55 23 9 20 10 25 37 0 1 52 518 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Seasonal Term assetbacked securities loan facility 7 80 �������������������� 30 �������������������� 3 �������������������� 37 46,310 26 25,025 23 9,400 23 760 59 98 80 0 67 0 179 0 221 0 246 0 188 0 106 0 67 0 22 0 10 0 13 0 42 0 69 0 105 0 167 0 1 Data are prorated averages of biweekly (maintenance period) averages of daily figures. 2 Equals the sum of balances maintained up to the top of each institution’s penalty-free band. 3 Excludes vault cash used to satisfy required reserves. 4 Total reserve balances maintained plus vault cash used to satisfy required reserves less total borrowings from the Federal Reserve. 5 Equals total balances maintained plus currency in circulation (not shown). 6 Includes term auction credit (December 2007 to April 2010), primary dealer and other broker-dealer credit (March 2008 to February 2010), credit extended to American International Group, Inc. (September 2008 to January 2011), asset-backed commercial paper money market mutual fund liquidity facility (September 2008 to February 2010), and other credit extensions, not shown separately. 7 Includes credit extended by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to eligible borrowers through the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility. Note: Data reflect the creation of a penalty-free band around reserve balance requirements which took effect June 27, 2013. See H.3 release of July 11, 2013. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks Total commercial bank loans and leases rose 0.5 percent in June. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 14,000 ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 12,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 14,000 12,000 TOTAL 10,000 9,000 8,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 7,000 6,000 6,000 LOANS AND LEASES 5,000 5,000 4,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 U.S. TREASURY AND AGENCY SECURITIES 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 800 800 OTHER SECURITIES 400 400 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 2016 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1] Securities in bank credit 2 Period 2006: Dec ����������� 2007: Dec ����������� 2008: Dec ����������� 2009: Dec ����������� 2010: Dec ����������� 2011: Dec ����������� 2012: Dec ����������� 2013: Dec ����������� 2014: Dec ����������� 2015: Dec ����������� 2015: June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2016: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar r �������� Apr r ��������� May r �������� June ��������� Total bank credit 8,104.8 8,899.5 9,347.1 8,989.5 9,186.9 9,398.6 9,957.6 10,107.2 10,861.6 11,680.3 11,306.8 11,363.6 11,415.4 11,439.2 11,516.5 11,602.2 11,680.3 11,768.0 11,833.7 11,905.6 11,979.2 12,052.7 12,117.8 Total securities 1,987.7 2,099.9 2,091.6 2,323.7 2,425.2 2,492.2 2,733.8 2,722.2 2,934.5 3,109.4 3,042.6 3,038.1 3,052.2 3,043.2 3,058.9 3,085.8 3,109.4 3,138.4 3,139.5 3,142.0 3,168.3 3,192.1 3,210.8 U.S. Treasury and agency securities 1,215.2 1,132.6 1,247.8 1,445.0 1,637.6 1,698.3 1,873.3 1,810.6 2,043.8 2,227.2 2,144.7 2,144.8 2,159.9 2,159.8 2,178.8 2,204.7 2,227.2 2,250.9 2,249.9 2,247.6 2,272.8 2,294.5 2,303.7 Loans and leases in bank credit Other securities 772.5 967.3 843.8 878.7 787.6 793.9 860.4 911.6 890.7 882.2 897.8 893.3 892.3 883.4 880.1 881.0 882.2 887.5 889.6 894.4 895.5 897.5 907.1 Total loans and leases 3 6,117.1 6,799.6 7,255.5 6,665.8 6,761.7 6,906.4 7,223.8 7,384.9 7,927.2 8,570.9 8,264.2 8,325.5 8,363.3 8,395.9 8,457.6 8,516.4 8,570.9 8,629.6 8,694.2 8,763.5 8,810.9 8,860.6 8,907.0 Commercial and industrial loans 1,182.5 1,417.6 1,558.7 1,265.1 1,192.3 1,303.6 1,474.2 1,573.9 1,772.5 1,950.3 1,875.9 1,885.2 1,897.4 1,904.2 1,923.3 1,942.8 1,950.3 1,961.4 1,985.3 2,018.4 2,036.4 2,050.9 2,057.0 Chart 28 - Jul 2016 Real estate loans Total 4 3,373.6 3,600.1 3,819.4 3,776.7 3,613.4 3,494.9 3,550.8 3,531.9 3,638.8 3,864.6 3,739.4 3,758.5 3,774.1 3,790.7 3,811.0 3,843.7 3,864.6 3,883.1 3,909.2 3,936.9 3,951.4 3,978.6 3,997.8 Revolving home equity loans 468.3 484.8 588.2 603.1 582.0 549.5 515.3 472.5 456.4 434.6 445.8 443.8 441.4 439.3 437.3 436.1 434.6 432.3 430.3 428.5 426.2 424.3 422.3 Commercial loans 1,459.6 1,587.2 1,728.5 1,640.9 1,500.4 1,418.2 1,428.2 1,498.0 1,604.9 1,776.6 1,684.4 1,701.2 1,715.9 1,731.7 1,747.7 1,760.0 1,776.6 1,794.6 1,812.3 1,831.4 1,846.3 1,862.1 1,878.6 Consumer loans 5 738.6 799.2 876.2 836.0 1,114.1 1,091.5 1,109.0 1,134.6 1,192.8 1,265.7 1,216.8 1,224.4 1,231.5 1,239.2 1,249.0 1,256.2 1,265.7 1,274.7 1,281.9 1,291.0 1,298.2 1,305.4 1,319.5 Other loans and leases 6 822.4 982.7 1,001.2 788.0 841.8 1,016.4 1,089.7 1,144.5 1,323.0 1,490.3 1,432.1 1,457.3 1,460.2 1,461.9 1,474.3 1,473.7 1,490.3 1,510.4 1,517.8 1,517.2 1,524.8 1,525.7 1,532.7 1 Data are prorated averages of Wednesday values for domestically chartered commercial banks, branches and agencies of foreign banks, and Edge Act and agreement corporations. 2 Includes securities held in trading accounts, held-to-maturity, and available-for-sale. Excludes all non-security trading assets, such as derivatives with a positive fair value or loans held in trading accounts. 3 Excludes unearned income. Includes the allowance for loan and lease losses. Excludes Federal funds sold to, reverse repurchase agreements (RPs) with, and loans to commercial banks in the United States. Includes all loans held in trading accounts under a fair value option. 4 Includes closed-end residential loans, not shown separately. 5 Includes credit cards and other consumer loans. 6 Includes other items, not shown separately. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 28 Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses External (Net increase in liabilities) Funds raised in markets Period Total 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2013: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2014: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2015: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2016: I p �������������� Internal 1 2,202.2 2,633.4 1,732.0 1,185.0 2,164.3 2,622.8 2,741.8 2,812.4 3,201.0 2,700.6 2,764.4 2,670.0 2,788.1 3,027.3 3,012.8 3,084.2 3,268.5 3,438.4 2,769.5 2,576.3 2,576.7 2,879.8 2,709.8 1,363.1 1,352.5 1,393.1 1,433.7 1,676.7 1,728.5 1,756.4 1,886.1 1,908.1 1,865.2 1,832.4 1,887.0 1,872.5 1,952.6 1,788.3 1,876.8 1,991.5 1,975.7 1,900.9 1,898.7 1,878.5 1,782.6 1,808.7 Total net funds raised Total 839.1 1,280.9 338.9 –248.7 487.6 894.3 985.4 926.3 1,292.9 835.4 932.0 783.0 915.6 1,074.7 1,224.5 1,207.4 1,277.0 1,462.7 868.6 677.6 698.2 1,097.2 901.1 –114.7 –53.5 –37.6 –395.5 –301.8 –118.6 –38.3 52.8 93.0 –65.2 117.9 21.6 276.4 –204.6 130.3 96.4 95.6 49.8 104.4 187.8 –244.2 –309.0 20.1 Net new equity issues –496.9 –706.3 –315.6 –51.2 –250.7 –454.6 –344.9 –352.9 –392.2 –562.7 –213.7 –371.2 –344.1 –482.7 –501.8 –273.1 –434.3 –359.6 –591.4 –490.4 –626.2 –542.6 –703.1 Credit market instruments Total Securities and mortgages Loans and short-term paper 209.8 257.7 138.2 123.6 101.8 90.3 224.7 286.2 292.0 456.9 249.8 186.0 491.3 218.0 316.1 267.6 238.1 346.3 541.3 693.4 334.8 257.9 589.6 172.3 395.1 139.9 –467.9 –153.0 245.7 81.9 119.5 193.2 40.6 81.9 206.8 129.2 60.3 316.0 101.8 291.8 63.2 154.5 –15.1 47.2 –24.3 133.6 382.2 652.8 278.0 –344.3 –51.2 336.0 306.6 405.7 485.2 497.4 331.6 392.8 620.5 278.2 632.1 369.4 529.9 409.4 695.8 678.3 382.0 233.6 723.2 Other 2 761.9 1,122.4 186.9 42.1 632.4 820.2 835.4 688.5 1,102.8 553.4 709.8 549.9 438.5 1,056.1 1,519.3 868.3 811.3 1,212.2 –2.0 177.3 777.4 1,261.0 704.8 Total 2,037.4 2,467.2 751.2 1,320.6 1,868.1 1,828.7 2,007.5 2,528.7 2,461.1 2,679.6 2,611.2 2,443.8 2,431.1 2,628.7 2,332.6 2,428.6 2,601.0 2,482.3 2,876.4 2,769.0 2,497.4 2,575.6 2,430.5 Capital expenditures 3 1,337.3 1,394.4 1,360.0 1,020.8 1,235.4 1,331.9 1,501.2 1,539.2 1,666.9 1,783.7 1,453.4 1,518.3 1,591.3 1,593.8 1,610.9 1,646.6 1,703.9 1,706.4 1,739.4 1,877.1 1,770.9 1,747.5 1,715.8 Increase in financial assets 700.1 1,072.8 –608.8 299.8 632.7 496.8 506.3 989.5 794.2 895.9 1,157.8 925.5 839.8 1,034.9 721.7 782.0 897.1 775.9 1,137.0 891.9 726.5 828.1 714.7 Discrepancy (sources less uses) 164.8 166.3 980.8 –135.6 296.1 794.2 734.3 283.7 739.8 20.9 153.1 226.2 357.1 398.5 680.1 655.6 667.5 956.1 –106.9 –192.8 79.2 304.1 279.4 1 Profits before tax (book) less taxes on corporate income, less net dividends, plus capital consumption allowance (consumption of fixed capital plus capital consumption adjustment), foreign earnings retained abroad, inventory valuation adjustment, and net capital transfers. 2 Includes trade payables, taxes payable, and miscellaneous liabilities (foreign direct investment in the U.S., pension fund contributions payable, and other). 3 Nonresidential fixed investment plus residential fixed investment, inventory change with inventory valuation adjustment, and nonproduced nonfinancial assets. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Consumer Credit [Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Net change in consumer credit outstanding 1 Consumer credit outstanding (end of period) Period Total 2006: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2007: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2008: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2009: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2010: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2011: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2012: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2013: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2014: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2015: Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2015: June ���������������������������������������� July ����������������������������������������� Aug ����������������������������������������� Sept ���������������������������������������� Oct ������������������������������������������ Nov ����������������������������������������� Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2016: Jan r ���������������������������������������� Feb ������������������������������������������ Mar r ��������������������������������������� Apr r ���������������������������������������� May r ��������������������������������������� June p �������������������������������������� Nonrevolving 2 Revolving 2,456.7 2,609.9 2,644.2 2,555.4 2,647.2 2,758.3 2,920.4 3,096.2 3,318.0 3,535.7 3,435.6 3,452.8 3,468.2 3,496.6 3,513.0 3,529.2 3,535.7 3,548.5 3,562.3 3,586.7 3,603.6 3,621.6 3,633.9 923.9 1,001.9 1,004.2 916.3 839.4 841.5 845.7 857.7 891.5 937.9 911.5 914.7 917.9 924.2 926.0 932.8 937.9 937.1 939.3 950.3 951.3 953.1 960.8 1,532.8 1,608.0 1,639.9 1,639.1 1,807.8 1,916.7 2,074.6 2,238.5 2,426.5 2,597.9 2,524.1 2,538.0 2,550.3 2,572.4 2,587.0 2,596.3 2,597.9 2,611.4 2,623.0 2,636.4 2,652.3 2,668.5 2,673.1 Total Nonrevolving 2 Revolving 165.8 153.2 34.3 –88.8 91.8 111.1 162.1 175.8 221.8 217.7 26.3 17.2 15.4 28.4 16.4 16.2 6.5 12.8 13.8 24.4 16.9 18.0 12.3 94.4 78.0 2.3 –87.9 –76.9 2.1 4.2 12.0 33.8 46.4 7.0 3.2 3.2 6.3 1.8 6.8 5.1 –.8 2.2 11.0 1.0 1.8 7.7 71.4 75.2 31.9 –.8 168.7 108.9 157.9 163.9 188.0 171.4 19.3 13.9 12.3 22.1 14.6 9.3 1.6 13.5 11.6 13.4 15.9 16.2 4.6 1 Change based on data in billions of dollars as shown here. For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month. 2 Includes automobile loans and all other loans not included in revolving credit, such as loans for mobile homes, education, boats, trailers, or vacations. These loans may be secured or unsecured. Note: Data include student loans extended by the Federal Government and by SLM Holding Corporation. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 Interest Rates and Bond Yields Interest rates were mixed in July. PERCENT PER ANNUM 10 PERCENT PER ANNUM 10 8 8 CORPORATE Aaa BONDS (MOODY'S) 6 6 4 2 4 FEDERAL FUNDS RATE 2 TREASURY BILLS 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW 2016 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] Chart 30 - Jul 2016 U.S. Treasury security yields Period 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2015: July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2016: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� July ���������� Week ended: 2016: July 9 ������� 16 ������� 23 ������� 30 ������� Aug 6 ������ 3-month bills (at auction) 1 Constant maturities 2 3-year 10-year 30-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor’s) 3 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody’s) Discount window primary credit (N.Y. F.R. Bank) 4 Prime rate charged by banks 4 4.73 4.41 1.48 .16 .14 .06 .09 .06 .03 .06 .03 .09 .06 .01 .13 .26 .25 .32 .32 .23 .27 .29 .31 4.77 4.35 2.24 1.43 1.11 .75 .38 .54 .90 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.01 .93 1.20 1.28 1.14 .90 1.04 .92 .97 .86 .79 4.80 4.63 3.66 3.26 3.22 2.78 1.80 2.35 2.54 2.14 2.32 2.17 2.17 2.07 2.26 2.24 2.09 1.78 1.89 1.81 1.81 1.64 1.50 4.91 4.84 4.28 4.08 4.25 3.91 2.92 3.45 3.34 2.84 3.07 2.86 2.95 2.89 3.03 2.97 2.86 2.62 2.68 2.62 2.63 2.45 2.23 4.42 4.42 4.80 4.64 4.16 4.29 3.14 3.96 3.78 3.48 3.73 3.57 3.56 3.48 3.50 3.23 3.01 3.21 3.28 3.04 2.95 2.84 2.57 5.59 5.56 5.63 5.31 4.94 4.64 3.67 4.24 4.16 3.89 4.15 4.04 4.07 3.95 4.06 3.97 4.00 3.96 3.82 3.62 3.65 3.50 3.28 5.96 5.86 2.39 .50 .72 .75 .75 .75 .75 .76 .75 .75 .75 .75 .75 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 7.96 8.05 5.09 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.26 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 .27 .31 .32 .32 .29 .69 .81 .84 .83 .79 1.38 1.51 1.58 1.53 1.54 2.13 2.22 2.29 2.24 2.28 2.43 2.53 2.64 2.63 2.81 3.21 3.27 3.34 3.29 3.40 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 New-home mortgage yields (FHFA) 6 Federal funds rate 5 4.97 6.63 5.02 6.41 1.92 6.05 .16 5.14 .18 4.80 .10 4.56 .14 3.69 .11 4.00 .09 4.22 .13 4.01 .13 4.10 .14 4.12 .14 4.09 .12 4.02 .12 4.00 .24 4.03 .34 4.04 .38 4.01 .36 3.92 .37 3.86 .37 3.82 .38 3.81 .39 ������������������������� .39 .40 .40 .40 .36 ������������������������� ������������������������� ������������������������� ������������������������� ������������������������� 1 High bill rate at auction, issue date within period, bank-discount basis. Data are stop yields from uniform-price auctions. 2 Yields on actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities. Series for 30-year constant maturity was discontinued on February 18, 2002 and reintroduced on February 6, 2006. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Average effective rate for year; rate in effect at end of month or week. 5 Daily effective rate; weighted average of rates on brokered trades. 6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Moody’s Investors Service, and Standard & Poor’s. 30 Common Stock Prices and Yields Stock prices rose in July. INDEX, DEC. 31, 2002=5,000 (RATIO SCALE) 12,000 INDEX, DEC. 31, 2002=5,000 (RATIO SCALE) 12,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 10,000 COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX (NYSE) 9,000 9,000 8,000 8,000 7,000 7,000 6,000 6,000 5,000 5,000 4,000 2008 2009 2011 2010 2012 4,000 2013 2014 2015 PERCENT 20 2016 PERCENT 20 15 15 EARNINGS/PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS (S&P) 10 10 5 5 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2013 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, STANDARD AND POOR'S, AND BLOOMBERG 2015 2016 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Common stock yields (percent) 6 Common stock prices 1 Chart 31 - Jul 2016 New York Stock Exchange indexes (December 31, 2002=5,000) 2 Period Composite 2006 ��������������������� 2007 ��������������������� 2008 ��������������������� 2009 ��������������������� 2010 ��������������������� 2011 ��������������������� 2012 ��������������������� 2013 ��������������������� 2014 ��������������������� 2015 ��������������������� 2015: July ����������� Aug ����������� Sept ���������� Oct ������������ Nov ����������� Dec ������������ 2016: Jan ������������ Feb ������������ Mar ����������� Apr ������������ May ����������� June ���������� July ����������� Week ended: 2016: July 9 �������� 16 �������� 23 �������� 30 �������� Aug 6 ������� Financial Energy Health Care Dow Jones industrial average 3 Standard & Poor’s composite index (1941–43=10) 4 Nasdaq composite index (Feb. 5, 1971=100) 5 Dividend/price ratio Earnings/price ratio 8,357.99 9,648.82 8,036.88 6,091.02 7,230.42 7,871.41 8,011.65 9,426.77 10,653.17 10,676.70 10,857.76 10,532.02 9,957.64 10,324.90 10,426.30 10,199.92 9,504.21 9,431.28 10,056.09 10,339.55 10,333.26 10,412.91 10,685.20 8,654.40 9,321.33 6,278.38 3,987.04 4,744.05 4,641.01 4,616.63 5,805.54 6,448.33 6,559.24 6,773.74 6,595.14 6,158.78 6,371.68 6,486.79 6,353.44 5,768.93 5,477.49 5,880.50 6,037.54 6,067.03 5,995.46 6,020.68 11,206.94 13,339.92 13,258.42 10,020.30 10,943.85 12,880.35 12,512.31 13,490.83 14,598.07 11,332.43 11,259.16 10,383.96 9,739.62 10,544.15 10,517.43 9,531.43 8,596.57 8,737.06 9,590.44 10,079.48 10,235.66 10,458.20 10,673.50 6,685.06 7,191.91 6,171.19 5,456.63 6,230.62 6,847.80 7,503.05 9,250.02 11,195.85 12,718.18 13,357.41 13,165.34 12,370.38 12,223.45 12,307.48 12,337.92 11,817.93 11,480.66 11,781.39 12,199.13 12,223.79 12,468.57 12,993.53 11,408.67 13,169.98 11,252.61 8,876.15 10,662.80 11,966.36 12,967.08 14,999.67 16,773.99 17,590.61 17,795.02 17,061.59 16,339.95 17,182.28 17,723.77 17,542.86 16,305.25 16,299.90 17,302.14 17,844.37 17,692.32 17,754.87 18,341.18 1,310.67 1,476.66 1,220.89 946.73 1,139.31 1,268.89 1,379.56 1,642.51 1,930.67 2,061.20 2,094.14 2,039.87 1,944.40 2,024.81 2,080.62 2,054.08 1,918.60 1,904.42 2,021.95 2,075.54 2,065.55 2,083.89 2,148.90 2,265.17 2,577.12 2,162.46 1,841.03 2,347.70 2,680.42 2,965.77 3,537.69 4,374.31 4,943.49 5,082.81 4,934.62 4,748.00 4,879.04 5,082.51 5,040.54 4,610.71 4,463.21 4,754.48 4,892.17 4,788.24 4,856.23 5,023.99 1.87 1.86 2.37 2.40 1.98 2.05 2.24 2.14 2.04 2.10 2.08 2.16 2.25 2.18 2.13 2.16 2.33 2.38 2.23 2.18 2.19 2.19 2.14 5.78 5.29 3.54 1.86 6.04 6.77 6.20 5.57 5.25 4.59 4.60 ���������������������������� ���������������������������� 4.72 ���������������������������� ���������������������������� 4.23 ���������������������������� ���������������������������� 4.20 ���������������������������� ���������������������������� ���������������������������� 10,459.22 10,729.59 10,781.69 10,758.97 10,715.29 5,807.92 6,032.87 6,107.73 6,118.92 6,117.42 10,589.02 10,837.75 10,767.88 10,456.60 10,279.63 12,819.40 12,978.99 13,051.01 13,138.56 13,107.65 17,950.47 18,393.94 18,555.03 18,465.51 18,393.77 2,104.02 2,153.44 2,168.78 2,169.58 2,167.76 4,878.91 5,016.17 5,071.23 5,132.92 5,173.81 2.20 2.13 2.11 2.12 2.14 ���������������������������� ���������������������������� ���������������������������� ���������������������������� ���������������������������� 1 Annual data are averages of monthly figures. Monthly and weekly data are averages of daily closing prices. 2 Includes all the stocks (in 2016, over 3,200) listed on the NYSE. 3 Includes 30 stocks. 4 Includes 500 stocks. 5 Includes over 3,100 stocks in 2016. 6 Standard & Poor’s series. Dividend/price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings/price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones & Company, Inc., Standard & Poor’s, Nasdaq Stock Market, and Bloomberg. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt In the first nine months of fiscal year 2016, the deficit was $400.8 billion, compared with a deficit of $316.4 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4,400 4,200 RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4,400 1 4,200 4,000 4,000 3,800 3,800 OUTLAYS1 3,600 3,600 3,400 3,400 3,200 3,200 3,000 3,000 2,800 2,800 2,600 2,600 2,400 2,400 RECEIPTS1 2,200 2,200 2,000 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,800 1,600 400 SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (–)1 400 0 0 –400 –400 –800 –800 –1,200 –1,200 –1,600 –1,600 –2,000 –2,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 FISCAL YEARS 1 INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Total Fiscal year or period Receipts 1998 ���������������������������������������������������� 1999 ���������������������������������������������������� 2000 ���������������������������������������������������� 2001 ���������������������������������������������������� 2002 ���������������������������������������������������� 2003 ���������������������������������������������������� 2004 ���������������������������������������������������� 2005 ���������������������������������������������������� 2006 ���������������������������������������������������� 2007 ���������������������������������������������������� 2008 ���������������������������������������������������� 2009 ���������������������������������������������������� 2010 ���������������������������������������������������� 2011 ���������������������������������������������������� 2012 ���������������������������������������������������� 2013 ���������������������������������������������������� 2014 ���������������������������������������������������� 2015 ���������������������������������������������������� 2016 (estimates) r ������������������������������� 2017 (estimates) r ������������������������������� Cumulative total, first 9 months: 1 Fiscal year 2015 ���������������������������������� Fiscal year 2016 ���������������������������������� Outlays Chart 32 - Jul 2016 On-budget Surplus or deficit (–) Receipts Outlays Federal debt (end of period) Off-budget Surplus or deficit (–) Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (–) Gross Federal Held by the public 1,721.7 1,827.5 2,025.2 1,991.1 1,853.1 1,782.3 1,880.1 2,153.6 2,406.9 2,568.0 2,524.0 2,105.0 2,162.7 2,303.5 2,450.0 2,775.1 3,021.5 3,249.9 3,276.2 3,632.2 1,652.5 1,701.8 1,789.0 1,862.8 2,010.9 2,159.9 2,292.8 2,472.0 2,655.1 2,728.7 2,982.5 3,517.7 3,457.1 3,603.1 3,537.0 3,454.6 3,506.1 3,688.3 3,876.0 4,073.2 69.3 125.6 236.2 128.2 –157.8 –377.6 –412.7 –318.3 –248.2 –160.7 –458.6 –1,412.7 –1,294.4 –1,299.6 –1,087.0 –679.5 –484.6 –438.4 –599.8 –440.9 1,305.9 1,383.0 1,544.6 1,483.6 1,337.8 1,258.5 1,345.4 1,576.1 1,798.5 1,932.9 1,865.9 1,451.0 1,531.0 1,737.7 1,880.5 2,101.8 2,285.9 2,479.5 2,466.0 2,791.4 1,335.9 1,381.1 1,458.2 1,516.0 1,655.2 1,796.9 1,913.3 2,069.7 2,233.0 2,275.0 2,507.8 3,000.7 2,902.4 3,104.5 3,029.4 2,820.8 2,800.1 2,945.2 3,099.9 3,259.6 –29.9 1.9 86.4 –32.4 –317.4 –538.4 –568.0 –493.6 –434.5 –342.2 –641.8 –1,549.7 –1,371.4 –1,366.8 –1,148.9 –719.0 –514.1 –465.7 –633.9 –468.2 415.8 444.5 480.6 507.5 515.3 523.8 534.7 577.5 608.4 635.1 658.0 654.0 631.7 565.8 569.5 673.3 735.6 770.4 810.2 840.9 316.6 320.8 330.8 346.8 355.7 363.0 379.5 402.2 422.1 453.6 474.8 517.0 554.7 498.6 507.6 633.8 706.1 743.1 776.1 813.5 99.2 123.7 149.8 160.7 159.7 160.8 155.2 175.3 186.3 181.5 183.3 137.0 77.0 67.2 61.9 39.5 29.5 27.3 34.1 27.3 5,478.2 5,605.5 5,628.7 5,769.9 6,198.4 6,760.0 7,354.7 7,905.3 8,451.4 8,950.7 9,986.1 11,875.9 13,528.8 14,764.2 16,050.9 16,719.4 17,794.5 18,120.1 19,451.8 20,143.6 3,721.1 3,632.4 3,409.8 3,319.6 3,540.4 3,913.4 4,295.5 4,592.2 4,829.0 5,035.1 5,803.1 7,544.7 9,018.9 10,128.2 11,281.1 11,982.7 12,779.9 13,116.7 14,127.7 14,699.8 2,446.9 2,468.8 2,763.3 2,869.7 –316.4 –400.8 1,858.3 1,852.4 2,231.7 2,310.9 –373.5 –458.5 588.7 616.4 531.5 558.8 57.1 57.7 18,121.5 19,344.7 13,070.4 13,927.4 1 Data from current issue Monthly Treasury Statement. Note: Data for fiscal year 2016 and fiscal year 2017 are from Mid-Session Review, Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 2017, issued July 15, 2016. Other data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2017, issued February 9 , 2016. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 32 Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function In the first nine months of fiscal year 2016, receipts were $21.9 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $106.4 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2,000 1 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2,000 RECEIPTS 1,600 1,600 INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES 1,200 1,200 CORPORATION INCOME TAXES 800 400 SOCIAL INSURANCE AND RETIREMENT RECEIPTS OTHER RECEIPTS 800 400 0 0 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,400 OUTLAYS1 3,400 3,200 3,200 3,000 NONDEFENSE 3,000 2,800 2,800 2,600 2,600 2,400 2,400 2,200 2,200 2,000 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,800 1,600 NATIONAL DEFENSE 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 FISCAL YEARS 1 INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Chart 33 - July 2016 On-budget and off-budget receipts Fiscal year or period 1998 ���������������������������������������������������� 1999 ���������������������������������������������������� 2000 ���������������������������������������������������� 2001 ���������������������������������������������������� 2002 ���������������������������������������������������� 2003 ���������������������������������������������������� 2004 ���������������������������������������������������� 2005 ���������������������������������������������������� 2006 ���������������������������������������������������� 2007 ���������������������������������������������������� 2008 ���������������������������������������������������� 2009 ���������������������������������������������������� 2010 ���������������������������������������������������� 2011 ���������������������������������������������������� 2012 ���������������������������������������������������� 2013 ���������������������������������������������������� 2014 ���������������������������������������������������� 2015 ���������������������������������������������������� 2016 (estimates) r ������������������������������� 2017 (estimates) r ������������������������������� Cumulative total, first 9 months: 1 Fiscal year 2015 ���������������������������������� Fiscal year 2016 ���������������������������������� On-budget and off-budget outlays National defense Indi- Corporavidual tion income income taxes taxes Social insurance and retirement receipts 1,721.7 1,827.5 2,025.2 1,991.1 1,853.1 1,782.3 1,880.1 2,153.6 2,406.9 2,568.0 2,524.0 2,105.0 2,162.7 2,303.5 2,450.0 2,775.1 3,021.5 3,249.9 3,276.2 3,632.2 828.6 879.5 1,004.5 994.3 858.3 793.7 809.0 927.2 1,043.9 1,163.5 1,145.7 915.3 898.5 1,091.5 1,132.2 1,316.4 1,394.6 1,540.8 1,544.6 1,746.6 188.7 184.7 207.3 151.1 148.0 131.8 189.4 278.3 353.9 370.2 304.3 138.2 191.4 181.1 242.3 273.5 320.7 343.8 298.2 409.9 571.8 611.8 652.9 694.0 700.8 713.0 733.4 794.1 837.8 869.6 900.2 890.9 864.8 818.8 845.3 947.8 1,023.5 1,065.3 1,115.4 1,158.5 132.6 151.5 160.6 151.7 146.0 143.9 148.4 154.0 171.2 164.7 173.7 160.5 207.9 212.1 230.2 237.4 282.7 300.0 318.0 317.2 1,652.5 1,701.8 1,789.0 1,862.8 2,010.9 2,159.9 2,292.8 2,472.0 2,655.1 2,728.7 2,982.5 3,517.7 3,457.1 3,603.1 3,537.0 3,454.6 3,506.1 3,688.3 3,876.0 4,073.2 268.2 274.8 294.4 304.7 348.5 404.7 455.8 495.3 521.8 551.3 616.1 661.0 693.5 705.6 677.9 633.4 603.5 589.6 593.4 618.6 255.8 261.2 281.0 290.2 331.8 387.1 436.4 474.1 499.3 528.5 594.6 636.7 666.7 678.1 650.9 607.8 577.9 562.5 565.7 588.0 13.1 15.2 17.2 16.5 22.3 21.2 26.9 34.6 29.5 28.5 28.9 37.5 45.2 45.7 47.2 46.2 46.7 48.6 44.5 57.0 131.4 141.0 154.5 172.2 196.5 219.5 240.1 250.5 252.7 266.4 280.6 334.3 369.1 372.5 346.7 358.3 409.4 482.2 521.9 552.3 192.8 190.4 197.1 217.4 230.9 249.4 269.4 298.6 329.9 375.4 390.8 430.1 451.6 485.7 471.8 497.8 511.7 546.2 592.4 598.4 237.8 242.5 253.7 269.8 312.7 334.6 333.1 345.8 352.5 366.0 431.3 533.2 622.2 597.3 541.3 536.5 513.6 508.8 521.2 533.0 379.2 390.0 409.4 433.0 456.0 474.7 495.5 523.3 548.5 586.2 617.0 683.0 706.7 730.8 773.3 813.6 850.5 887.8 917.2 954.1 241.1 229.8 222.9 206.2 170.9 153.1 160.2 184.0 226.6 237.1 252.8 186.9 196.2 230.0 220.4 220.9 229.0 223.2 233.3 265.8 188.9 218.1 239.7 243.1 273.1 302.6 311.8 339.8 393.5 317.9 365.2 651.6 372.6 435.5 458.3 347.9 341.7 402.0 452.1 494.1 2,446.9 2,468.8 1,167.5 1,171.6 255.5 223.4 815.8 850.2 208.2 223.6 2,763.3 2,869.7 444.4 439.5 422.8 417.3 36.5 31.3 351.4 374.2 403.1 420.5 401.5 400.8 663.9 685.9 181.8 203.4 280.7 314.0 Total Other Total Total Depart- Internament tional of affairs Defense, military Health Medicare Income Social Net security security interest Other 1 Data from current issue Monthly Treasury Statement. Data for Department of Defense, military, include a small amount that is classified and listed under international affairs, and not included in national defense. Note: Data for fiscal year 2016 and fiscal year 2017 are from Mid-Session Review, Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 2017, issued July 15, 2016. Other data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2017, issued February 9, 2016. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis In the second quarter of 2016, according to advance estimates, Federal current expenditures rose $26.3 billion (annual rate); receipts data are incomplete. (Series revised.) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4,400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4,400 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 4,000 4,000 3,600 3,600 CURRENT EXPENDITURES 3,200 3,200 2,800 2,800 2,400 2,400 CURRENT RECEIPTS 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 800 800 400 400 0 0 –400 –400 NET FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SAVING –800 –800 –1,200 –1,200 –1,600 –1,600 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Chart 34 - Jul 2016 Federal Government current receipts Federal Government current expenditures Current tax receipts Period Total Total 1 Calendar year: 2006 ������������� 2,537.7 1,563.4 2007 ������������� 2,667.2 1,642.4 2008 ������������� 2,579.5 1,520.7 2009 ������������� 2,238.4 1,171.1 2010 ������������� 2,443.3 1,352.7 2011 ������������� 2,574.1 1,553.8 2012 ������������� 2,699.1 1,661.1 r 2013 ����������� 3,138.4 1,824.3 r 2014 ����������� 3,288.4 1,995.0 2015 r ����������� 3,453.3 2,149.2 2014: I r ������������� 3,254.1 1,960.6 II r ������������ 3,290.7 2,003.8 III r ����������� 3,309.5 2,001.5 IV r ����������� 3,299.4 2,014.0 2015: I r ������������� 3,410.0 2,134.5 II r ������������ 3,439.4 2,138.9 III r ����������� 3,447.8 2,130.5 IV r ����������� 3,515.9 2,193.0 2016: I r ������������� 3,443.4 2,107.3 II p ������������ ������������ �������������� Contributions for Income Taxes govern- receipts Taxes Personal on ment on on current production corporate social assets taxes and insurincome imports ance 1,054.6 1,169.7 1,174.3 864.5 941.6 1,129.1 1,164.7 1,302.0 1,402.3 1,532.7 1,366.5 1,385.9 1,412.7 1,444.3 1,506.8 1,530.6 1,539.9 1,553.2 1,521.2 1,530.1 99.2 395.0 94.6 362.8 94.0 233.7 91.4 200.4 96.8 298.7 108.6 299.4 115.1 363.1 124.8 378.1 134.6 436.6 139.4 455.1 133.2 438.1 133.3 464.4 135.7 431.0 136.0 412.9 138.0 468.1 141.8 444.9 136.9 430.6 140.8 477.0 138.1 425.3 136.9 �������������� 905.7 947.2 974.4 950.8 970.9 904.0 938.1 1,091.3 1,140.9 1,189.5 1,126.2 1,131.7 1,145.3 1,160.3 1,169.4 1,184.3 1,194.4 1,210.1 1,215.3 1,219.9 1 Includes taxes from the rest of the world, not shown separately. 2 Includes Federal grants-in-aid to State and local governments, not shown separately. Note: See Note, p. 1. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 34 29.0 33.4 33.9 48.5 54.6 56.4 52.6 163.3 74.8 49.2 104.2 75.6 57.8 61.5 43.3 42.7 67.6 43.0 51.3 38.6 Current transfer receipts 37.9 42.0 49.7 67.2 68.1 67.1 56.1 70.7 86.1 72.7 71.5 88.2 112.9 71.7 68.9 80.2 62.9 79.0 79.1 80.1 Current surplus of government enterprises 1.8 2.0 .8 .8 –3.1 –7.1 –8.9 –11.1 –8.3 –7.4 –8.5 –8.5 –8.1 –8.1 –6.3 –6.7 –7.6 –9.2 –9.7 –12.0 Total 2,764.8 2,932.8 3,213.5 3,487.2 3,772.0 3,818.3 3,789.1 3,782.2 3,901.3 4,022.9 3,846.2 3,893.9 3,942.6 3,922.5 3,944.5 4,018.2 4,070.2 4,058.9 4,110.8 4,137.1 ConCurrent sumption transfer Interest Subsidies expendipaypayments tures ments 2 763.9 798.4 879.8 933.7 1,003.9 1,006.1 1,007.8 961.0 955.9 963.7 957.4 949.9 967.6 948.8 960.1 961.7 965.1 968.0 969.0 974.7 1,577.4 1,678.8 1,896.1 2,142.9 2,333.2 2,327.0 2,300.8 2,346.2 2,448.6 2,564.9 2,391.4 2,438.6 2,477.3 2,487.2 2,540.9 2,545.5 2,579.7 2,593.5 2,629.8 2,631.6 372.3 408.2 388.0 353.6 380.6 425.7 422.9 416.2 440.5 438.2 440.5 449.0 441.5 431.1 388.3 455.3 468.5 440.7 454.2 471.7 Net Federal Government saving 51.1 –227.0 47.5 –265.7 49.6 –634.0 56.9 –1,248.8 54.3 –1,328.7 59.5 –1,244.1 57.6 –1,090.1 58.8 –643.8 56.2 –612.9 56.1 –569.7 56.9 –592.1 56.4 –603.2 56.2 –633.1 55.4 –623.1 55.1 –534.5 55.7 –578.9 56.9 –622.3 56.8 –543.1 57.7 –667.3 59.1 ���������������� INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries Industrial production (2012=100; seasonally adjusted) Period United States Canada Japan France Germany Consumer prices (1982–84=100; NSA) United Kingdom Italy United States 1 Canada Japan France 2006 ��������������� 102.4 107.5 114.0 112.2 95.1 123.3 112.3 201.6 188.7 118.6 2007 r ������������� 105.0 106.3 117.4 113.6 100.9 125.6 112.6 207.342 192.7 118.7 2008 ��������������� 101.2 102.7 113.2 109.8 100.9 120.9 109.7 215.303 197.3 120.3 2009 ��������������� 89.6 91.0 88.7 95.6 84.4 98.4 100.2 214.537 197.9 118.7 r 2010 ������������� 94.5 95.4 102.6 99.4 93.5 105.3 103.4 218.056 201.4 117.9 2011 ��������������� 97.3 100.0 99.8 102.4 100.3 106.6 102.8 224.939 207.2 117.5 2012 ��������������� 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 229.594 210.4 117.5 2013 ��������������� 101.9 101.6 99.4 99.7 100.1 97.0 99.3 232.957 212.4 117.9 2014 ��������������� 104.9 105.5 101.5 98.9 101.5 96.4 100.8 236.736 216.4 121.2 2015 r ������������� 105.2 104.8 100.2 100.5 102.4 97.3 102.1 237.017 218.8 122.1 r 2015: May ��� 105.0 103.0 99.1 100.1 102.5 98.0 102.4 237.805 219.4 122.6 June r �� 104.9 103.8 100.7 101.1 102.8 97.3 102.3 238.638 219.9 122.3 July r ��� 105.5 105.6 99.8 98.9 103.4 98.1 101.7 238.654 220.1 122.2 Aug r ���� 105.6 106.4 99.1 101.6 102.4 97.7 102.8 238.316 220.1 122.5 r Sept ��� 105.3 104.4 99.4 101.3 102.1 97.6 102.8 237.945 219.8 122.5 r Oct ����� 105.2 104.4 100.6 101.8 102.3 98.1 103.0 237.838 219.9 122.5 Nov r ���� 104.5 105.4 99.5 101.3 101.9 97.6 102.2 237.336 219.8 122.0 Dec r ���� 104.0 105.6 98.2 100.4 101.9 97.0 101.1 236.525 218.7 122.0 2016: Jan r ���� 104.5 106.6 100.7 101.6 104.7 98.6 101.9 236.916 219.2 121.4 Feb r ���� 104.4 105.6 95.5 100.3 103.7 97.8 101.7 237.111 219.8 121.6 Mar r ��� 103.4 104.8 99.1 99.9 102.8 97.7 102.2 238.132 221.1 121.8 r Apr ���� 103.8 104.6 99.6 101.0 103.7 98.1 104.4 239.261 221.8 121.9 r May ��� 103.5 100.8 97.0 100.5 102.4 97.5 103.8 240.236 222.7 122.1 June p �� 104.1 ��������������� 98.9 ��������������� ��������������� 97.1 ��������������� 241.038 223.2 121.8 July p ��� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� Germany 176.3 178.9 183.9 184.1 186.9 190.8 194.6 196.3 197.2 197.3 198.4 198.2 197.4 198.0 197.2 197.3 197.0 197.4 195.5 196.0 197.4 197.5 198.3 198.6 197.8 156.2 159.7 163.9 164.5 166.3 169.7 173.1 175.7 177.3 177.7 178.1 177.9 178.3 178.3 177.9 177.9 178.1 177.9 176.4 177.1 178.4 177.8 178.3 178.4 178.9 Italy United Kingdom 266.1 232.8 271.0 242.7 280.0 252.4 282.2 251.1 286.5 262.7 294.5 276.3 303.5 285.2 307.1 293.9 307.9 300.8 308.0 303.8 308.4 303.7 309.0 304.2 308.7 303.8 309.3 305.2 308.1 305.0 308.7 304.9 307.5 305.2 307.5 306.2 306.9 304.1 306.3 305.5 306.9 306.8 306.6 307.1 307.5 307.9 307.8 309.1 308.4 ����������������� 1 Data relate to all urban consumers. Note: See Note, p. 17, for information on U.S. industrial production series. Sources: As reported by each country, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services [Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Goods: Exports (f.a.s. value) Census basis (by end-use category) Period 2006 ��������������� 2007 ��������������� 2008 ��������������� 2009 ��������������� 2010 ��������������� 2011 ��������������� 2012 ��������������� 2013 ��������������� 2014 ��������������� 2015 ��������������� 2015: June ���� July ����� Aug ����� Sept ���� Oct ������ Nov ����� Dec ������ 2016: Jan ������ Feb ������ Mar ����� Apr ������ May r ��� June p �� BOP basis 1,040.9 1,165.2 1,308.8 1,070.3 1,290.3 1,499.2 1,562.6 1,592.0 1,633.3 1,510.3 127.4 127.6 124.3 125.3 123.3 121.3 120.7 117.2 119.6 117.2 120.0 119.8 120.4 IndusFoods, trial Total, feeds, supCensus and plies basis 1 bever- and ages materials 1,026.0 1,148.2 1,287.4 1,056.0 1,278.5 1,482.5 1,545.8 1,578.5 1,621.2 1,502.6 126.7 127.0 123.8 125.0 122.5 120.8 120.1 116.7 119.2 116.9 119.5 119.2 119.9 66.0 84.3 108.3 93.9 107.7 126.2 133.0 136.2 143.7 127.7 10.7 10.9 10.7 10.5 10.1 10.1 9.9 9.5 9.9 9.4 9.8 10.4 11.0 276.0 316.4 388.0 296.5 391.7 501.1 501.2 508.2 505.5 426.0 36.8 36.9 34.8 34.7 33.3 32.7 32.2 31.7 31.5 30.7 32.5 32.5 32.4 107.3 121.3 121.5 81.7 112.0 133.0 146.2 152.7 159.8 151.9 12.7 13.1 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.7 12.3 12.4 13.1 12.1 12.9 12.6 12.2 Balance of trade (exports minus imports) Census basis (by end-use category) Auto- Consumer Capital motive vegoods goods hicles, except parts (nonfood) autoexcept motive and enautogines motive 404.0 433.0 457.7 391.2 447.5 494.0 527.2 534.4 551.5 539.4 44.6 44.2 44.6 45.1 44.3 44.4 44.0 42.9 43.1 43.4 43.5 42.7 43.0 Services (BOP basis) Goods: Imports (customs value) 129.1 146.0 161.3 149.5 165.2 175.3 181.7 188.8 198.6 197.7 16.6 16.3 15.9 16.9 16.5 16.0 16.8 16.0 16.8 15.6 15.8 15.6 16.0 BOP basis 1,878.2 1,986.3 2,141.3 1,580.0 1,939.0 2,239.9 2,303.7 2,294.2 2,385.5 2,272.9 192.7 189.1 190.3 187.6 186.1 183.8 183.8 181.0 184.9 174.6 178.6 182.1 186.4 IndusFoods, trial Total, feeds, supCensus and plies basis 1 bever- and ages materials 1,853.9 1,957.0 2,103.6 1,559.6 1,913.9 2,208.0 2,276.3 2,268.0 2,356.4 2,248.2 190.6 187.0 188.2 185.6 184.1 181.9 182.0 179.3 183.1 172.8 176.9 180.2 184.4 74.9 81.7 89.0 81.6 91.7 107.5 110.3 115.1 125.9 127.8 11.1 10.6 10.6 10.7 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.7 11.3 10.5 10.7 10.8 10.5 602.0 634.7 779.5 462.4 603.1 755.8 730.6 681.5 667.1 485.8 42.0 42.1 39.6 38.2 36.2 35.9 36.3 34.6 33.9 32.8 33.9 36.2 38.5 BOP basis Auto- Consumer Capital motive vegoods Exports goods hicles, except parts (nonfood) autoexcept motive and enautogines motive 418.3 444.5 453.7 370.5 449.4 510.8 548.7 555.7 594.1 602.0 49.7 49.7 50.2 49.3 49.8 49.3 49.3 48.1 49.3 47.1 49.6 48.7 49.7 256.6 256.7 231.2 157.7 225.1 254.6 297.8 308.8 328.6 349.2 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.0 29.2 29.3 30.1 30.5 29.4 28.3 28.7 29.0 28.5 442.6 474.6 481.6 427.3 483.2 514.1 516.9 531.7 557.1 594.3 50.3 47.5 50.6 51.0 50.8 49.2 48.4 48.2 52.2 46.2 46.7 47.9 49.8 416.7 488.4 532.8 512.7 563.3 627.8 656.4 701.5 743.3 750.9 63.0 62.5 62.4 62.3 62.3 62.3 62.4 62.5 62.5 63.0 62.6 62.7 62.8 Imports Goods, Census basis Goods Services Goods and services 341.2 372.6 409.1 386.8 409.3 435.8 452.0 461.1 481.3 488.7 40.6 40.9 41.0 41.1 41.0 40.9 40.8 41.1 41.3 41.1 41.4 41.4 41.2 –828.0 –808.8 –816.2 –503.6 –635.4 –725.4 –730.4 –689.5 –735.2 –745.7 –63.8 –60.0 –64.4 –60.7 –61.6 –61.1 –61.9 –62.6 –64.0 –56.0 –57.4 –61.0 –64.5 75.6 115.8 123.8 125.9 154.0 192.0 204.4 240.4 262.0 262.2 22.4 21.6 21.4 21.2 21.3 21.4 21.6 21.4 21.2 21.9 21.2 21.3 21.5 –761.7 –705.4 –708.7 –383.8 –494.7 –548.6 –536.8 –461.9 –490.2 –500.4 –43.0 –39.9 –44.6 –41.1 –41.6 –41.1 –41.5 –42.3 –44.0 –35.5 –37.4 –41.0 –44.5 –837.3 –821.2 –832.5 –509.7 –648.7 –740.6 –741.2 –702.2 –752.2 –762.6 –65.4 –61.5 –66.0 –62.3 –62.9 –62.5 –63.1 –63.7 –65.2 –57.4 –58.6 –62.2 –66.0 1 Total includes ‘‘other’’ exports or imports, not shown separately. Note: BOP refers to balance of payments on international transactions basis. BOP data shown here are consistent with figures shown on pp. 36 and 37. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis). 35 U.S. International Transactions In the first quarter of 2016, the current account deficit rose to $124.7 billion from $113.4 billion in the fourth quarter. The goods and services deficit fell to $121.9 billion in the first quarter from $124.2 billion in the fourth quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 80 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 80 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 60 60 40 40 BALANCE ON PRIMARY INCOME 20 20 0 0 –20 –20 –40 –40 BALANCE ON SECONDARY INCOME –60 BALANCE ON CURRENT ACCOUNT –60 –80 –80 –100 –100 –120 –120 –140 –140 BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES –160 –160 –180 –180 –200 –200 –220 –220 –240 –240 2008 2007 2010 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 2015 2016 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted] Chart 36 - Jun 2016 Current Account 1 Goods 2 Period 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2013: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2014: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2015: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2016: I ���������������� Services Exports Imports Balance on goods 1,040,905 1,165,151 1,308,795 1,070,331 1,290,273 1,499,240 1,562,578 1,592,002 1,633,320 1,510,303 394,717 395,114 396,192 405,980 403,365 409,701 412,087 408,167 383,936 383,935 377,157 365,275 354,041 1,878,194 1,986,347 2,141,287 1,580,025 1,938,950 2,239,886 2,303,749 2,294,247 2,385,489 2,272,868 573,154 572,239 573,762 575,092 589,078 601,537 596,763 598,111 577,452 574,812 566,925 553,678 540,470 –837,289 –821,196 –832,492 –509,694 –648,678 –740,646 –741,171 –702,244 –752,169 –762,565 –178,437 –177,126 –177,570 –169,112 –185,712 –191,836 –184,677 –189,944 –193,517 –190,876 –189,768 –188,404 –186,429 Exports 416,738 488,396 532,817 512,722 563,333 627,781 656,411 701,455 743,257 750,860 172,731 174,008 175,933 178,784 183,220 186,211 185,735 188,091 188,332 188,448 187,118 186,962 188,063 Imports 341,165 372,575 409,052 386,801 409,313 435,761 452,013 461,087 481,264 488,657 113,904 114,614 115,432 117,137 118,022 120,209 120,474 122,560 121,329 121,599 122,961 122,767 123,506 Balance on services 75,573 115,821 123,765 125,920 154,020 192,020 204,398 240,368 261,993 262,203 58,827 59,394 60,500 61,647 65,199 66,002 65,262 65,531 67,003 66,848 64,157 64,195 64,557 Balance on goods and services –761,716 –705,375 –708,726 –383,774 –494,658 –548,625 –536,773 –461,876 –490,176 –500,361 –119,610 –117,731 –117,070 –107,466 –120,514 –125,834 –119,415 –124,414 –126,514 –124,028 –125,611 –124,209 –121,872 Primary income receipts and payments Receipts 693,089 844,033 823,707 614,379 684,915 759,727 768,956 794,658 821,807 782,915 195,307 198,969 198,893 201,490 202,351 204,485 209,622 205,349 194,716 199,359 196,752 192,089 194,262 Payments 649,752 743,429 677,561 490,794 507,254 538,766 553,163 575,689 597,802 600,531 145,068 144,187 142,132 144,302 145,604 149,862 150,297 152,039 146,365 154,288 154,903 144,974 156,764 Balance on primary income 43,337 100,604 146,146 123,584 177,661 220,961 215,792 218,970 224,005 182,385 50,239 54,783 56,761 57,187 56,746 54,623 59,325 53,310 48,351 45,071 41,848 47,115 37,498 Balance on secondary Income 3 –88,347 –113,872 –128,209 –123,833 –124,964 –132,690 –125,547 –123,515 –125,888 –144,988 –29,609 –31,885 –32,416 –29,605 –30,887 –22,849 –35,529 –36,623 –36,386 –32,947 –39,343 –36,312 –40,297 Balance on current account –806,726 –718,643 –690,789 –384,023 –441,961 –460,354 –446,527 –366,422 –392,060 –462,965 –98,980 –94,833 –92,725 –79,883 –94,654 –94,060 –95,619 –107,726 –114,549 –111,904 –123,106 –113,406 –124,671 Current account balance as a percentage of GDP –5.8 –5.0 –4.7 –2.7 –3.0 –3.0 –2.8 –2.2 –2.3 –2.6 –2.4 –2.3 –2.2 –1.9 –2.2 –2.2 –2.2 –2.4 –2.6 –2.5 –2.7 –2.5 –2.7 1 Current and capital account statistics in the international transactions accounts differ slightly from statistics in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) because of adjustments made to convert the international statistics to national accounting concepts. A reconciliation can be found in NIPA table 4.3B. 2 Adjusted from Census data to align with concepts and definitions used to prepare the international and national economic accounts. The adjustments are necessary to supplement coverage of Census data, to eliminate duplication of transactions recorded elsewhere in the international accounts, to value transactions according to a standard definition, and for earlier years, to record transactions in the appropriate period. 3 Includes U.S. government and private transfers, such as U.S. government grants and pensions, fines and penalties, withholding taxes, personal transfers, insurance-related transfers, and other current transfers. See p. 37 for continuation of table. 36 U.S. International Transactions—Continued In the financial account, U.S. net borrowing was $35.0 billion in the first quarter of 2016, resulting from a net increase in U.S. financial assets of $66.8 billion plus a net increase in transactions in financial derivatives of $13.6 billion, less a net increase in U.S. liabilities of $115.5 billion. U.S. net borrowing was up from $21.8 billion in the fourth quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 800 800 700 700 CHANGE IN U.S. LIABILITIES 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 CHANGE IN U.S. ASSETS ABROAD1 –100 –100 –200 –200 –300 –300 –400 –400 –500 –500 2008 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1 INCLUDES FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES, NET, BEGINNING 2006. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted] Chart 37 - Jun 2016 Financial account Period Balance on capital account 1 Net U.S. acquisition of financial assets excluding financial derivatives [net increase in assets / financial outflow (+)] Total 2006 �������������������� 2007 �������������������� 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2013: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2014: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2015: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2016: I ���������������� –1,788 1,336,866 384 1,572,509 6,010 –309,468 –140 132,204 –157 963,449 –1,186 496,320 6,904 177,747 –412 651,427 –45 823,343 –42 225,398 –40 212,235 –227 216,264 –146 24,312 0 198,615 –43 153,627 –2 229,606 –1 330,098 0 110,012 –22 357,562 –20 104,122 –1 –83,824 0 –152,461 0 66,803 Direct investment assets Portfolio investment assets Other investment assets 296,059 493,366 549,814 532,939 380,807 658,641 351,724 –284,269 –381,770 313,726 375,883 –609,662 354,575 199,620 407,420 440,405 85,365 –45,327 378,222 248,760 –453,695 394,635 481,298 –221,408 343,441 582,688 –99,203 348,646 153,968 –270,924 73,254 152,224 –14,118 135,436 168,818 –87,799 97,519 14,954 –87,160 88,426 145,302 –32,331 54,287 102,090 –1,794 69,849 204,484 –45,500 101,811 128,515 100,661 117,494 147,598 –152,569 86,576 233,068 42,077 114,779 140,675 –150,455 51,322 –97,468 –37,412 95,969 –122,306 –125,134 92,901 –61,622 36,716 Reserve assets 4 –2,373 122 4,848 52,256 1,835 15,877 4,460 –3,099 –3,583 –6,292 875 –191 –1,001 –2,782 –956 773 –889 –2,511 –4,159 –877 –266 –990 –1,191 Net U.S. incurrence of liabilities excluding financial derivatives [net increase in liabilities / financial inflow (+)] Total 2,116,304 2,183,538 454,051 318,350 1,386,345 977,073 625,352 1,044,635 1,056,374 395,234 252,808 245,645 171,639 374,543 289,054 293,401 371,787 102,132 348,004 205,435 –39,884 –118,322 115,488 Direct investment liabilities Portfolio investment liabilities Other investment liabilities 294,289 1,126,735 340,066 1,156,612 332,734 523,683 153,787 357,352 259,345 820,434 257,411 311,626 243,010 747,017 276,978 511,987 207,368 701,861 379,435 250,936 32,891 150,986 96,409 –8,446 76,142 200,041 71,536 169,406 –86,791 248,214 69,348 99,475 118,119 230,476 106,691 123,696 194,067 102,922 108,005 256,154 50,590 –126,250 26,773 18,109 79,900 –14,823 695,280 686,860 –402,367 –192,789 306,566 408,036 –364,675 255,670 147,145 –235,137 68,931 157,682 –104,544 133,601 127,631 124,578 23,192 –128,255 51,015 –158,723 35,775 –163,204 50,411 Financial derivatives other than reserves, net transactions –29,710 –6,222 32,947 –44,816 –14,076 –35,006 7,064 2,222 –54,347 –25,392 –3,948 –3,302 6,569 2,903 6,105 –4,423 –24,304 –31,725 –40,199 1,708 746 12,353 13,643 Net lending (+) or net borrowing (–) from financial account transactions 5 –809,148 –617,251 –730,572 –230,962 –436,972 –515,759 –440,540 –390,987 –287,378 –195,227 –44,521 –32,683 –140,758 –173,025 –129,322 –68,218 –65,993 –23,845 –30,642 –99,605 –43,194 –21,786 –35,042 U.S. official reserve assets, Statistical net discrep(unadancy justed, end of period) 4 –634 101,008 –45,793 153,201 5,146 –54,219 –917 –24,153 104,727 267,780 54,499 62,377 –47,888 –93,141 –34,625 25,843 29,627 83,881 83,929 12,318 79,913 91,620 89,629 65,895 70,565 77,648 130,760 132,433 147,953 150,175 144,575 130,090 117,581 146,329 145,703 147,747 144,575 144,284 145,176 137,054 130,090 119,270 120,333 120,218 117,581 119,727 4 Consists of monetary gold, special drawing rights (SDRs), the U.S. reserve position in the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and other reserve assets, including foreign currencies. 5 Net lending means that U.S. residents are net suppliers of funds to foreign residents, and net borrowing means the opposite. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 37 CONTENTS TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page Gross Domestic Product ........................................................................................................................................................ 1 Real Gross Domestic Product ................................................................................................................................................ 2 Chained Price Indexes For Gross Domestic Product ............................................................................................................ 2 Gross Domestic Product and Related Price Measures: Indexes and Percent Changes ........................................................... 3 Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Gross Value Added and Price, Costs, and Profits .......................................................... 3 National Income .................................................................................................................................................................... 4 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures ............................................................................................................................ 4 Sources of Personal Income ................................................................................................................................................... 5 Disposition of Personal Income ............................................................................................................................................. 6 Real Farm Income ................................................................................................................................................................. 7 Corporate Profits ................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Real Gross Private Domestic Investment ............................................................................................................................... 9 Real Private Fixed Investment by Type .................................................................................................................................. 10 Business Investment ............................................................................................................................................................... 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force ....................................................................................................................................................... Selected Unemployment Rates .............................................................................................................................................. Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs ................................................................... Nonagricultural Employment ................................................................................................................................................ Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries ................................ Employment Cost Index—Private Industry .......................................................................................................................... Productivity and Related Data, Business and Nonfarm Business Sectors .............................................................................. 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization .................................................................................................................... 17 Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures .......................................................................... 18 New Construction ................................................................................................................................................................. 19 New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates .............................................................................................................................. 19 Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade .................................................................................................. 20 Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders .............................................................................................................. 21 PRICES Producer Prices ...................................................................................................................................................................... Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers ............................................................................................................................. Changes in Producer Prices ................................................................................................................................................... Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers .......................................................................................................... Prices Received and Paid by Farmers ..................................................................................................................................... 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock and Debt Measures .......................................................................................................................................... Components of Money Stock ................................................................................................................................................ Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base ................................................................................................................................. Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks .................................................................................................................................. Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business .............................................................................. Consumer Credit ................................................................................................................................................................... Interest Rates and Bond Yields .............................................................................................................................................. Common Stock Prices and Yields .......................................................................................................................................... 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt ..................................................................................................................................... 32 Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function ............................................................................................................ 33 Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis ................................................................................................................... 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries ........................................................................... 35 U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services .................................................................................................................... 35 U.S. International Transactions ............................................................................................................................................. 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: p Preliminary. r Revised. c Corrected. ... Not available (also, not applicable). NSA Not seasonally adjusted. 38 U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE : 2016 21-130