Full text of Economic Indicators : July 1948

The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.

80th Congress, 2d Session

Joint Committee Print

Economic Indicators
JULY 1948
Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council
of Economic Advisers and printed for the use of the Joint Committee on
the Economic Report




UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1948

JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio, Chairman
JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan, Vice Chairman
JOSEPH H. BALL, Minnesota
RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont
ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah
JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming
FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania
JOHN SPARKMAN, Alabama

GEORGE H. BENDER, Ohio
CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts
ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania
EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey
WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas
WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio
CHARLES O. HARDY, Staff Director
FRED E. BBRQUIST, Assistant Staff Director
JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk
WILLIAM H. MOORE, Economist

To the Members of Congress:

From the time the Joint Committee on the Economic
Report was established, its members realized that one of
its basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture of
current economic trends and developments.
Fortunately, the Joint Committee finds that Economic
Indicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiled
monthly by the Council of Economic Advisers, admirably
fills this need. While this material was prepared primarily for the use of the President, the Council and other
officials in the executive offices, the Council has made it
available to the Joint Committee.
Other Members of Congress have also expressed an
interest in being able to obtain a quick picture of current
economic facts without having to wade through voluminous and specialized Government documents. In
addition, businessmen, farm leaders, labor organizations
and representatives of the press and radio have indicated
their desire for this information. Since nothing con-

a




tained in these charts and tables is of a confidential nature
they have urged that the material be made available to
the general public.
Accordingly, the Joint Committee has for the past
two months provided the Congress and the public with a
limited number of copies of Economic Indicators. The
response to these two issues has indicated such widespread interest that the Committee has arranged to
release Economic Indicators each month as a committee
print until action can be taken on authorizing the publication on a more permanent basis.
Comments or suggestions with respect to possible
improvements in this presentation will always be
welcome.

Chairman) Joint Committee on the Economic Report.

Letter of Transmitted
Hon. ROBERT A. TAFT, Chairman,
Joint Committee on the Economic Report,
United States Congress, Washington, D. C.

DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the
Joint Committee on the Economic Report in your plans to make Economic Indicators
available to the Congress as a whole and to the general public.
In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has
found it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts
showing current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a better
position to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the
improvement and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services.
We have realized, of course, that this material has a potential usefulness not only to
the President, the Council and the executive departments, but also to the Congress.
Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly
by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and consumer organizations with
whom we regularly consult.
We believe the Joint Committee will perform a service of real value by giving wide
circulation to this material.
Sincerely yours,




Chairman.
^L^&H/vt-v

Vice Chairman.

/w A.

111

Contents
Section A: THE NATION'S E C O N O M I C
BUDGET
The Nation's Economic Budget
Section B: PRICES
Consumers' Prices
Wholesale Prices
...
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
Stock Prices

1

.

Section C: EMPLOYMENT
Labor Force
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours
Work Stoppages
Section D: PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS
ACTIVITY
Industrial Production
Production of Selected Durable Manufactures....
Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures.
New Construction
New Housing Starts
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
New Corporate Security Issues

IV




2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

10
11
12
13
14
15
16

Section D: PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS
ACTIVITY—Continued
Inventories and Sales
17
Exports and Imports
..
18
Section E: PURCHASING POWER
National Income
Corporate Profits
Personal Income
Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving
Per Capita Income
Average Hourly Earnings
Average Weekly Earnings
Farm Income
Average Family Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures..
Consumer Credit

19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29

Section F: MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
Bank Loans and Investments
30
Money Supply
31
Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the
Public
32

Section A: THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
Rising trend of total income and expenditure continued in 1st half of 1948. Business outlays and
government surplus showed a marked increase, and net foreign investment a decided drop.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BUSINESS

THE NATION'S ECONOMIC
BUDGET TOTAL*
250

250

(Gross National Product)

50
EXCESS OF
EXPENDITURES

,-

EXPENDITURES

m

25

RECEIPTS \

200

200
1946

1947

1948
1st Half**

INTERNATIONAL
150

25

150

NET FOREIGN INVESTMENT

1946

1947

1948
1ST Half **

I 00

100

50

II
194,6

1947

25

1946

1948
1st Half**

*

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AS LESS THAN THE SUM OF THE ACCOUNTS OF NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
BECAUSE OF CERTAIN ADJUSTMENTS. FOR DETAIL, SEE APPENDIX A OF THE PRESIDENT'S ECONOMIC REPORTS.

** SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES.

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BUREAU OF THE BUDGET.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
Cal( 3ndar ye«ar 1946

Account

Consumers:
Disposable income

Calendar year 1948, firs t half, annual
rates, sea sonally tid justed

Cal(mdar yeiar 1947

Excess of
Excess of
Re- Expend- receipts (+) Re- Expend- receipts (+)
ceipts itures or expendi- ceipts itures or expenditures (— )
tures (— )
_ _ 158.4

143. 7

Saving (+).
Business:
13.3
Undistributed profits and reserves
24, 6
Gross private domestic investment
Excess of receipts (+) or investment (— )_,
International :
4. 8
Net foreign investment.
_
Excess of receipts (+) or investment (— )-Government (Federal, State, and local) :
56. 5
Cash receipts from the public
55.2
Cash payments to the public
Excessx of receipts (+) or payments (— )
-22.3 -24. 5
Adjustments
-2. 1
0
Statistical discrepancy
203.7 203.7
Total gross national product

175.3
+ 14.8

17.6
-11.3

164. 4
27.8
8.7

-4.8
59.3

53.4

+ 1.3
+ 2.1 -18.2 - 24. 7
-2. 1 -4.4
0
229.6 229.6

Expenditures

Receipts

187.8
+ 10.9

19.7
-10.2

63. 3

0

34.0
4. 1

-8.7
+ 5.9
+ 6.5
-4.4

175. 1

52.0

-20.7 -19.5
-4.4
245.7 245.7

Excess of
receipts (+)
or expenditures (— )

+ 12.7

-14.3

-4.1
+ 11.3
-1.2
-4.4
0

1

Adjustments must be made to insure that Nation's Economic Budget total is equal to current production of goods and services. The adjustments
Bminate double counting, such as payments to social security beneficiaries and veterans' pensions, which are reflected in government account as well as in
KJnsumers' account. For detail, see Appendix A of the President's Economic Reports.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Bureau of the Budget.




i

Section B: PRICES
CONSUMERS' PRICES
In May consumers prices even exceeded the all-time peak reached in April. Food prices showed the largest increase;
other prices rose moderately.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

200

200

175

175

150

150

125

125

100

•

«*^

i

^ %

100

^

75

75

0 IiiIi iIii Iii Iii Ii i IiiIi i Ii i Iii Iii Iii Ii i Iii Iii Ii i iiIi iIiiIii
1939

1940

1942

1941

1943

1944

1945

1946

1947

1948

ALSO INCLUDES HOUSEFURNISHINGS, FUEL, ELECTRICITY, ICE,
AND MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES, NOT SHOWN ON CHART.
SOURCE. Deportment of Labor.

Council of Economic Advisers

[1935-39=100]
All items l

Period
1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average...
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average..
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average

1947: May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February.
March
April
May




1

.

__
...
.„

Food

Clothing

Rent

99.4
100.2
105.2
116.5
123.6
125.5
128. 4
139. 3
159.2

95.2
96.6
105.5
123.9
138.0
136.1
139. 1
159.6
193.8

100.5
101.7
106.3
124.2
129.7
138.8
145.9
160.2
185.8

104.3
104.6
106.2
108.5
108.0
108.2
108.3
108.6
111.2

156.0
157. 1
158.4
160.3
163.8
163.8
164.9
167. 0

187.6
190.5
193. 1
196.5
203.5
201.6
202.7
206.9

185.0
185.7
184.7
185.9
187.6
189.0
190.2
191.2

109. 2
109.2
110.0
111.2
113.6
114.9
115.2
115.4

168.8
167.5
166.9
169.3
170.5

209.7
204.7
202.3
207.9
210.9

192. 1
195. 1
196. 3
196.4
197.5

115.9
116.0
116.3
116.3
116.7

Also includes housefurnishings, fuel, electricity, ice, and miscellaneous goods and services.
NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities.
Source: Department of Labor.

WHOLESALE PRICES
Wholesale prices of other than farm and food products continued to reach new record levels. Farm and food prices
moved upward towards the high levels of last winter.
PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE

220

220

200

200

180

180

160

I 60

140

I 40

-• \

•

OTHER THAN FARM AND FOODS

120

120

100

100

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1926=100]
All commod- Farm products
ities

Week ended—

1946: Jan. 5
June 29
Sept. 28
Dec. 28
1947: Mar. 29
June 28.Sept. 27
Dec. 27
1948: Jan. 17
Feb. 14
21
Mar. 6
20
Apr. 3
10
17
24
May 1 —
8
15
22
29.
June 5
12
19
26
July 3



-

-

-

-

_

Source: Departmentjof Labor.

>

-.

_-_

106.8
112.7
124.4
139.6
149.4
147.6
156.2
163.0
165.5
159.7
159.2
160.4
161.5
160. 1
160.6
162.9
163.6
162.6
161.9
163.5
163. 5
164.4
164.2
164.9
165.3
166.7
166. 7

131.3
140.3
156. 6
167.7
183. 8
179.0
184.7
197.0
20i: 5
180.9
181.7
187. 1
187.6
183.9
183. 1
189.2
188. 9
186.9
184.0
187.9
189.2
193.0
192.4
193.5
194.5
198.4
197.2

Foods

108.0
113.4
133.0
159. 1
166.5
162.2
177.6
177.8
181.2
173.3
170. 3
172.2
176.4
172. 4
174.5
178.8
180.4
177.5
174,8
178.9
177.2
178.0
178.0
180. 1
180.7
183.0
184.1

Other than
farm and
foods

100.6
105.4
112.4
123.9
131. 9
132.0
138.2
146.0
147. 4
147.5
147.5
147.3
147.3
147.7
147.9
148.3
149.0
148.7
148.9
149.0
149.2
149.3
149.3
149.3
149.5
149. 9
149.8

PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received increased in June to highest level since January. Prices paid by farmers have been
relatively stable during the first half of the year
PERCENT

PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE

OF 1910-14 AVERAGE

350

350
MONTHLY AVERAGE

300

300

250

E50

200

200

PRICES PAID
(INCL. INTEREST, TAXES)

150

150

100

100

PARITY RATIO *

50

50

1
1939

1
40

41

42

43

1

44

J

45

1

1 1 1

F M A M J

J

1 1 1 1

1

A S 0

N D

1
J

1 1 1 1

1946
*

1

1 1

1 1 1 1 1

1 1

F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N O

1947

1948

RATIO OF PRICES RECEIVED TO PRICES PAID, INTEREST, AND TAXES.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE,




COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1910-14=100]
Prices
Prices paid by
received 1 farmers (includ- Parity ratio 2
by farmers
ing interest
and taxes)

Period

1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average.
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February
March.
April
May
June
1
2

__
_

_

,_
_ >
__

_

_

_„
__

_

,

_

_

95
100
124
159
192
195
202
233
278

124
125
132
150
162
169
172
193
231

77
80
94
106
119
115
117
121
120

271
276
276
286
289
287
301

230
230
234
238
239
241
245

118
120
118
120
121
119
123

307
279
283
291
289
295

251
248
247
249
250
251

122
112
115
117
116
118

August 1909-July 1914=100.
Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, and taxes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.

STOCK PRICES
Industrial and railroad stocks averaged higher in June than in May.
PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 AVERAGE
175
MONTHLY AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
175

1 50

150

125

125

100

100

75

50

50

J
1939

40

41

42

L
43

44

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J * J A S O N O

45

* AVERAGE OF WEEKLY DATA THROUGH JUNE 23.

SOURCE ; STANDARD AND POOR'S CORPORATION.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

[1935-39 = 100]
Combined
index 1

Period
1939 monthly average..
1940 monthly average
1941 monthly average1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February
March
April
May
June 2

-.—
.

'

—

Industrials *

Railroads 1

Utilities 1

94.2
88. 1
80.0
69.4
91.9
99.8
121. 5
139.9
123.0

94.8
87.9
80.4
71.3
94. 1
101.7
123.3
143.4
128.0

74.7
71. 1
70.6
66. 1
88.7
101.0
136.9
143.0
105.3

98.6
95.8
81.0
61.3
82. 1
89.9
106. 1
120.2
102.9

119. 1
126. 0
124.5
123. 1
125. 1
123.6
122. 4

124. 1
131.7
130.2
128.4
131. 1
130.3
129.2

97.6
108.2
105.2
103.6
104. 2
100. 1
103.9

100. 8
102.2
101.4
102.0
101.0
97.2
94.0

120. 1
114.2
116.4
124.6
130.2
135. 5

126.0
119.2
121.8
130. 8
137. 0
143. 1

106. 5
101.9
105.2
115.2
122.6
125. 5

95. 1
92.6
93.0
96.2
99.2
100.6

1
Combined index prior to June 23, 1948, was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials,
20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads,
and 31
utilities.
2
Average of weekly data through June 23.
Source: Standard & Poor's Corp.


78591—48


Section C: EMPLOYMENT
LABOR FORCE
Agricultural employment increased less than seasonally in May because of abnormal weather.
Unemployment continued to decline.

25 -

MONTHLY A V E R A G E

UNEM PLO YEC

-

mm Ell
1941

1944

1945

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

A

J

S

0

N

0

1AGNIFIED SCALE

<
1946

l

1

f

l

-

1

f

I

\

t

I

l

]

1

j

i

[

1 1 i

L t

f

i

f

t

i

I

i

i

I

i

i

1948

1947

1946

Council of Economic A d v i s e r s

[Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over]

Period

1941
1944
1945
1946
1947

monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average

Total labor
force, including
armed
forces

Ci vilian employ*3d

Armed
forces
A f-1-.rkrtyl

Total

In nonagricultural
industries

In agriculture

Unemployed

57,
65,
65,
60,
61,

380
890
140
820
608

50, 350
53, 960
52, 820
55, 250
58, 027

41,
45,
44,
46,
49,

250
010
240
930
761

9, 100
8,950
8,580
8,320
8,266

1,470
11, 260
11, 280
3,300
1,440

5,560
670
1,040
2,270
2, 142

1947: May
June
July...
August
September
October
November
December

61,
64,
64,
63,
62,
62,
61,
60,

760
007
035
017
130
219
510
870

58,
60,
60,
59,
58,
59,
58,
57,

49,
49,
50,
50,
50,
50,
50,
50,

370
678
013
594
145
583
609
985

8, 960
10, 377
10, 066
8,975
8,727
8, 622
7, 985
6,962

1,470
1,397
1, 371
1,352
1,346
1, 327
1,294
1,280

1,960
2, 555
2,584
2,096
1,912
1, 687
1,621
1,643

1948: January
February
March
April
May
June __ _ _

60, 455
61, 004
61, 005
61, 760
61, 660
64, 740

50, 089
50, 368
50, 482
50, 883
50, 800
51, 899

7,060
6,771
6,847
7,448
7,861
9,396

1,242
1, 226
1,236
1,237
1,238
1,260

2,065
2,639
2,440
2,193
1,761
2,184

57, 149
57, 139
57, 329
58, 330
58, 660
61,296

NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.

Source: Department of Commerce.


330
055
079
569
872
204
595
947

NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
Employment in most nonogricultural industries showed no significant change in May.
MILLIONS OF EMPLOYEES

MILLIONS OF EMPLOYEES

60

60

FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL

GOVERNMENT

20

20

I0

I0

1939

1941

S£5 TABLE, FOOTNOTE I,
SOURCE:

DEPARTMENT

OF

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

LABOR,

[Thousands of employees]
Total wage
and salary

Period
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: May
June
Julv
- - August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February
March
April 2
May

_-

-,

_

-

30, 287
36, 164
41, 480
40, 069
41, 494
43, 970
43, 344
43, 816
43, 686
44, 125
44, 513
44, 758
44, 918
45, 618
44, 603
44, 279
44, 599
44, 279
44, 517

Manufacturing
10, 078
12, 974
17, 111
15, 302
14, 515
15, 901
15, 568
15, 672
15, 580
15, 962
16, 175
16, 209
16, 256
16, 354
16, 267
16, 183
16, 269
15, 896
15, 796

Trade
6, 705
7,567
7, 399
7, 685
8,820
9,450
9,277
9,324
9,316
9,356
9,471
9,684
9,886
10, 288
9, 622
9,520
9,599
9,573
9, 604

Federal,
State, and
local government
3, 987
4, 622
6,026
5, 967
5,607
5,449
5, 510
5,454
5,341
5,318
5,403
5,414
5,387
5,638
5,498
5,492
5,546
5,577
5,624

Other
9,517
11, 001
10, 944
11, 115
12, 552
13, 170
12, 989
13, 366
13, 449
13, 489
13, 464
13, 451
13, 389
13, 338
13, 216
13, 084
13, 185
13, 233
13, 493

1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the
pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the
armed forces. Not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department ot
Commerce (p. 6) which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they
are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table
are based
on reports from employing establishments.
2
Preliminary estimate.
 Source: Department of Labor.



r:E;]R

L1\
I

*1

X3E W EEKLY HOUR1

>j5
1fh e V»fo rk w e<3k f(Dr most nonm anufacturinc 1 industries remain ec1 <3S S(5n ti a r tin changed in April; in bi luminous
c 0(3l rni ni n<9, it W(3s shortene d by the wo rk stoppage . In ma mJf Q<:tijr in g > he)U rs in April and again i n May
V/e re a li ft hj 0 w<3r than in I st quarter.
1

HOUR

s

1)

PER VVEE K

HOUF

50

s

PEF\ VYEE K

N1A N UFACTURIN(3 INDUSTRI ES

A Ll

B IT UMINOUS CO AL MINING
50

t

V ONTHl Y

AVE RA 3E

/I

40

n

30

30

20

20

1 0

1 0

I ,, , ,,

1 1 11 1 1 1 111i ,,.,,!,,.,,

0
93 3 41

44

1946

45

P R IVAlFE
50

MON THLY

40

1947

i ,,,.,,

0
939 41

1948

V

-U-

n

44

1946

45

BUILDING CONSTRUC1noN

n—
hi—

/

%=*

40

I111M

,,,,,1

1947

1948

RETAIL T RADE
50

; VE RA 3E

«

n

40

^^^-—V-rs^^-</vN^x»—

ji^i

"*"^*-ni

*~* - «^fi5

T

30

30

20

20

1 0

10

0

:

1 93S) 41

so UR :E :

44

i i i 1 1 1 1 1 1 ii

1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1946

1947

1948

45

[)EF>AR Tf 4EN

T

0

,,,,,(
I93 9

41

44

1946

45

OF L A B O R .

, ,,,,1,.,..

1 I 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1947

1948

COUNCIL 0 F ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

[Hours per week, selected industries]
All manufacturing
industries

Period

1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average.
1947: May.
June
July..
August
September
October __
November
December

1948: January
February
March
April22
May ..
1
2 Covers only
Preliminary
3

_ _

..

.
.
.

_ __

. -.

Bituminous
coal mining

Private building construction!

37.7
40. 6
45.2
43.4
40.4
40.3

27. 1
31.1
43.4
42.3
41.6
40.7

32. 6
34.8
39.6
39.0
38. 1
37.8

43.0
42.5
40.3
40.3
40.5
40.2

40. 1
40.2
39.8
39.8
40.4
40.6
40.4
41.2

44.3
43.7
31.8
39. 1
39. 1
39. 9
38.5
41.2

37.7
37.7
37.9
39.7
38.0
38.0
36. 6
37.9

40.0
40. 8
41. 1
41.0
40.0
40. 0
39. 5
39.7

40.5
40. 2
40. 4
40.0
39. 9

40.9
38. 7
40. 5
3
26. 9

37.2
36. 7
37. 1
37. 1

39.8
40.0
39. 5
39. 5

employees at the site of privately financed building projects.
estimate.
Based on pay period during coal stoppage,.
Source: Department of Labor.




8

Retail trade

WORK STOPPAGES
Workdays lost in May dropped to 4 million, about half the April peak.
MILLIONS
25

OF MAN-DAYS IDLE

MILLIONS

OF MAN-DAYS IDLE
25

20

15

10

PEAK MONTH

1939 40

41

42

43

44

45

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M ^ J J A S O N D

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Man-days
idle
(thousands)

Period
1939: Monthly average —
April—peak month
1940: Monthly average
1941: Monthly average
April—peak month
1942: Monthly average
1943: Monthly average
June—peak month
1944: Monthly average
1945: Monthly averageOctober—peak month
1946: Monthly average
1947: Monthly average
1947: May
June
July.
August
September
.
October
November
December
1948: January
February
March
April l
May



Preliminary estimate,

1,484
4,902

Principal stoppage

Coal.

559

.

1,921
7,113

Coal.

349

1,125
4,699

Coal.

727

-

.
—
—
—

Source: 'Department of Labor.

3,168
8,610
9,672
2,908
6,800
4, 000
4,000
2,500
2,000
1,900

Coal.
Telephone.

700
500

1, 000
725
6,000
8, 000
4, 100

Coal, meat packing.
Coal, meat packing.

Section D: PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS
ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Industrial production, reflecting the recovery in durable goods manufacturing and mining in May, was
near the peak levels reached in early 1948. Preliminary figures indicate little change in June.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
Points in Total Index

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
Points in Total Index

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

250

250

200

200

150

150
^MANUFACTURES:
NONDURABLE GOODS

100

MANUFACTURES:

50

AVERAGE

AVERAGE

AVERAGE

J

F

M

A

M

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D O

F

M

A

M

J

*

J

A

S

O

N

D

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
SOURCE: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Syslerr

C o u n c i l of Economic A d v i s e r s

[1935-39 = 100, seasonally adjusted]
Poin ts in total iridex,
1935-39 aAverage for t otal=100

Indes:es, 1935-39 = 100
Period

1935-39 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February
March
April 1
May
June 1 .
1

10

Preliminary estimate.




Total
industrial
production

M

100
239
203
170
187
184
176
182
187
190
192
192
193
194
191
188
192
192

Manufiactures

JManufacture s

Total
100
258
214
177
193
191
183
188
192
197
199
198
200
201
200
195
198
199

Durable
goods

Nondurable goods

100
360
274
192
220
219
207
210
217
223

100
176
166
165
172
168
163
169
172
176
178
173
178
180
177
177
178
177

224

229
229
226
229
217
222
224

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Mining
100
132
137
134
149
148
140
150
153
155
155
156
154
155
142
147
163
158

Durable
goods
38
136
104
73
83
83
79
80
83
84
85
87
87
86
87
82
84
85

Nondurable goods
47
83
78
77
81
79
76
79
80
83
84
81
83
84
83
83
83
83

Mining
15
20
21
21
23
23
21
23
23
24
24
24
23
24
22
22
25
24

PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE
MANUFACTURES
Production of iron and steel, increasing sharply i.n May, was up to the rate reached
prior to the coal stoppage. Production of transportation equipment and lumber and
its products continued to decline.
PERCENT OF 1935- 39 AVERAGE

PERCENT OP 1935-39 AVERAGE

TRANSPORTATION

EQUIPMENT

LUMBER AND

800

PRODUCTS

400
MONTHLY A V E R A G E

700

300

600

200

500

100

400

300

300

200

200

100

100

1935-39 1943 1945

1946

1947

1948

1935-39

1943 1945

1946

1947

1948

1935-39

1943 1945

1946

1947

1948

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.

[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Transportation
equipment

Period
1935-39 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average

—

1947: May
June
July.
August
September
October
November
December

1948: January
February
March
April 1
May

_

Iron and steel

100
734
487
232
230

100
130
110
130
144

100
208
183
150
195

--

225
233
217
213
227
232
234
243

142
142
133
142
140
143
150
153

197
193
181
188
195
204
202
205

__

244
232
241
237
222

156
150
151
144
138

203
203
207
177
206

—

-

Lumber and
products

.-

1

Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




11

PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE
MANUFACTURES
The output of most nondurable industries has been fairly steady since the first of the year.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS

PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS

300

300

MONTHLY AVERAGE

MONTHLY AVERAGE

200

200

100

100

I iIII

1935-39

43

45

ii

1946

1947

1935-39

1948

43

1946

45

1948

1947

CHEMICAL PRODUCTS

MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS
400

400
MONTHLY AVERAGE

300

300

200

200

100

100

i 111 1111

II I I I I I I I I

1935-39

43 45

1946

1947

1935-39

1948

43 45

1946

1948

1947

CQUNP.IL Of\ ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL R.g$EEl.V£ SY§TEN).

[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Textiles and
products

Period

1935-39 monthly average—
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

1948: January
February > _
March
April l
May _ —
1

_

.
_

_

_

_

.

__
_..

__

._

12

Manufactured food
products

Chemical
products

100
153
146
162
163

100
185
235
173
193

100
145
151
150
157

100
384
284
236
251

164
155
142
154
160
164
172
163

184
191
195
201
203
204
205
208

155
154
155
157
158
156
158
157

253
250
251
249
248
248
251
255

178
179
175
174
177

214
214
211
214
225

158
160
159
158
159

255
252
250
249
250

Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




Petroleum
and coal
products

NEW CONSTRUCTION
Construction reached a new postwar peak in June.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

2,000

2,000

1,500

1,500

1,000

1,000

500

-

:-

500

1939 1942 1944 1945 1946 1947
INCLUDES PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

COUNCIL

OF

ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

[Millions of dollars]
Pri v ate construct ion

Total new
construction

Period

1939 monthly average. __
1942 monthly average
±
1944 monthly average
_- _._
1945 monthly average. _
1946 monthly average __ _ _
1947 monthlv average _
_ _ ___
1947: June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February
March
April- _
May 2
June

_ _

_ _

_
-_

-

_

._
_ __

__

Residential
(nonfarm)

fVhcvr

1, 165

317
251
152
226
688
908

176
110
45
57
265
438

141
141
107
169
422
469

208
867
193
174
184
257

1, 162
1, 264
1, 364
1,423
1,497
1,432
1,320

1,042
1,086
1, 129
1, 141
1, 097

885
966

405
455
500
540
590
630
610

480
511
542
546
539
511
487

277
298
322
337
368
291
223

948
837
940

500
400
475
525
575
625

448
437
466
490
531
593

209
172
226
287
339
387

526

- _

_

_

___

Total
private

Federal,
State, and
local *

1, 118

345
401
871

1, 157
1,009
1, 166
1,302
1,445
1, 605

1,015
1,106
1,218

1
2

Includes public residential construction.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.

Digitized for 78591—48
FRASER


13

NEW HOUSING STARTS*
Starts increased about seasonally in May and topped the previous high of last October.
THOUSANDS OF UNITS

T H O U S A N D S OF UNITS

100

100

RURAL NONFARM

40

- 40

20

- 20

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

O

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

* NEW NONFARM FAMILY DWELLING UNITS.
SOURCE:

DEPARTMENT O F

LABOR.

New nonfa rm units (convexl itional and
prefabricated)

Period

1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December..
1948: January
February
March.
April 2
Mav*
1
2

_

._

_.

_

_

.._.
„ .

_ .

_

_
__ __

__

__ _
_ _ _ _ _
_

_

Rural nonfarm

Urban

Total
64, 683
71, 125

41, 164
40, 125

23, 520
31, 000

39,
42,
56,
67,
73,
79,
81,
86,
93,
94,
79,
58,

300
800
700
900
100
400
100
800
800
000
800
800

24, 200
25, 000
32, 300
38, 000
39, 300
43, 000
44, 500
47, 400
50, 300
53, 200
48, 000
36, 300

15,
17,
24,
29,
33,
36,
36,
39,
43,
40,
31,
22,

50,
47,
70,
92,
97,

000
200
000
000
000

30,
28,
41,
54,
57,

19, 600
18, 400
28, 200
37, 700
40, 000

400
800
800
300
000

100
800
400
900
800
400
600
400
500
800
800
500

New nonfarm family dwelling units. Temporary units are excluded after 1947 when the program ended.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Labor.



14

N

O

EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT
AND EQUIPMENT
Recent surveys indicate that business, exclusive of agriculture, expects to spend $18,6 billion on
new plant and equipment in 1948, or 15 percent more than was actually spent last year.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

25

25
ANN UAL TOTALS

20

15

TRANSPORTATION AND
ELECTRIC AND GAS
FUTILITIES

10

10

MANUFACTURE
AND
MINING

1939

194!

1945

2

3

1946
* HOT ADJUST?!) fOfi SEASONAL

VAtUfiTlQN.

SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC AOVISCHS

[Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal]
Transp<3rtation
Total i

Period

Manufacturing

Electric and
gas utilities

Mining
Railroad

1939
1941
1945
1946
1947
1948 >

-

-

.-

-

1947: First quarter
Second quarter..
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter *
Second quarter
Second half 3_

5

.. _

_„ . .
_ _
_-_

—

__

—

-

Other

Commercial
and miscellaneous '

5,200
8,190
6,630
12, 040
16, 200
18, 620

1, 930
3,400
3,210
5,910
7,460
7,760

380
680
440
560
690
690

280
560
550
570
920
1,540

280
340
320
660
800
780

480
710
630
1,040
1,900
2,300

1,850
2,490
1,480
3,300
4,430
5,560

12,
15,
16,
19,

640
760
560
840

5, 800
7,400
7,480
9, 160

600
640
720
840

640
880
920
1,240

720
920
800
760

1,320
1,800
2,000
2,480

3, 600
4, 120
4,640
5,360

17, 920
19, 120
18, 740

7,760
8,000
7,640

800
760
620

1,360
1, 560
1,620

720
840
780

2,040
2,400
2,400

5,280
5,600
5,680

1
Excludes agriculture.
2
Includes trade, service,
5

finance, and communication.
Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business.
NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because
the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal
Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other data. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because figures are rounded
to the nearest 10,000,000.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted).



15

NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES
New issues in the first quarter were less than the previous quarter and above the 1947 average. Half
of the proceeds were to be used for plant and equipment, one-third for working capital, and the rest
for retirement of debt and stock.
BILLIONS

BiLLIONS OF DOLLARS
3.0

OF D O L L A R S

3 ,0

QUARTERLY

AVERAGE

2.5

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

1939

SOURCE:

SECURITIES

1943

1945

AND EXCHANGE

COMMISSION.

COUNCIL

OF

[Millions of dollars]
]Droposed uses of net proceed,'

Estimated
net proceeds

Period

New money
Tnt P!

1939 quarterly average
_
1943 quarterly average
_ _ _ _
1945 quarterly average
_ _
_
_ _ _ _ _
1946 quarterly average
__
_ _
1947 quarterly average
1947: First quarter
.. _ _
Second quarter _
_ _
Third quarter
_ ._
....
Fourth quarter
2
1948: First quarter
1
2

_ _ _

_

__
_ _
_
_

_ _

529
287

1,476
1,689
1,528
1,018
1, 605
1, 267
2,222
1, 613

Includes small amount for other purposes.
Includes preliminary estimate for March.
NofcE.—detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.

16




81
77
270
820

1,068

673
932
797

1, 867
1, 400

Plant and
equipment
43
35
159
529
806
396
636
648

1, 542

845

Working
capital
39
42
111
291
261
278
296
148
325
555

Retirement
of debt and
stock i

448
210

1, 206

869
460
344
672
469
354
214

2[NVENTORIES I 1ND SA]LiES
l\/lanufacturers* and wholesalers' inv entories increase d only slightly in May. Department store sales
rose more than seasonally.
BILL ONS OF DOLLARS

BILL IONS OF DOLLARS

MANUFACTURING

WHOLESALE

^^

30

^-»g*'

NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION

~+*\

30

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

INVENTORIES*

X
X

20

20

jw

/^

s

^
x^"""""

10

<*w

SALES?

^7^^

—**»**
^^r-O-^-'^"
^~^

SALES*

10

^••*
—~—~~~~*

0

i i i i i

1i i i i

I i i i I

1946

i i i i t i i i i i i

I i i i i

1947

i i i i t

0

1948

>| NVENTORIES*

t t i t i
1946

BILL IONS OF DOLLARS

i i i i i 1 i ii ii
1948

1947

PERCE NT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

RETAIL

DEPARTMENT STORE S

30

400
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SALES**

300

\

INVENTORIES!
i

10

^_'~~~

*»^

~

/

'-'

'

i i i i i

I i i i i

S~****S\f

^

S

200

/^^^

*'

±LS

INVENTORIES**

++

i i i i i

1946
*

y\

/^s^/*r**^\

SALES*

0

i i i i i 1 i i i i i

i i i i i

1947

1 I 1 I t 1 I i 1 I 1

i i I i i

1 00

1 i i t i

1946

1948

S/1£5S ARE TOTAL FOR MONTH AND INVENTORIES ARE BOOK VALUE, END OF MONTH.

i i i I I 1 I i i i I

1948

<•* INDEXES COMPUTED FROM DATA ON RETAIL VALUE OF SALES FOK t MONTH AND RETAIL
BOOK VALUE OF INVENTORIES, END OF MONTH.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL fl ESERVE SYS1•EM,

Manufa cturing *
Period

Inventories 8

Sales 4

i i i i i 1 i i i ii

1947

Ret ail 2

Whol ssale 2
Inventories 3

Sales 4

Inventories *

Departm<3nt stores
Sales 4

-

-

_
: —

.

~

18, 773
19, 468
21, 500
23, 432
24, 211
24, 826
25, 392
25, 847
26, 435
26, 475
26, 842
27, 048
27, 053
27, 395
27, 625
28, 016
28, 485
28, 752
29, 047
29, 216
29, 500

10, 712
11, 132
13, 055
14, 634
14, 454
14, 177
15, 548
15, 398
15, 049
15, 065
14, 362
15, 258
16, 597
18, 081
16, 556
17, 524
16, 551
16, 209
18, 102
17, 171
16, 500

4,304
4,578
5, 131
5,994
6,248
6,444
6,611
6,778
6,737
6,864
6,726
6,886
6,997
6,943
7,349
7,577
7,618
7,754
8,054
8,049
8,071

9,691
10, 370
11,402
13, 052
12, 683
12, 996
12, 627
12, 218
12, 369
12, 541
12, 403
12, 523
13, 263
13, 615
14, 333
13, 697
14, 096
13, 993
13, 426
13, 701

Sales

1935-39=10)0 seasonally
ad jusjted «

Millions of dollars
1946: March
June
September
December
1947: January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February _--.
March6
April8
May .

Inventories

8,023
8,917
9, 995
11, 049
11, 427
11, 653
11, 833
11,974
11, 772
11, 948
11, 925
11, 944
12, 073
12, 435
12, 621
12, 953
13, 384
13, 751
14, 040
14, 035

7,783
8, 101
8,811
9,205
9,097
9,285
9,399
9, 610
9,681
9,743
9, 730
9,621
10, 162
10, 258
10, 485
10, 653
10,445
10, 381
10, 565
10, 832
10, 572

177
210
226
274
268
274
273
264
252
242
231
227
231
251
273
283
288
303
312
308

255
277
271
276
265
266
272
277
291
289
286
283
292
277
302
303
284
283
284
304
309

1
* Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for month and retail
Not adjusted for seasonal variation.
book
value of inventories, end of month.
*1 Adjusted for seasonal variation.
8
Preliminary estimate.
Book value, end of month.
4
Total for month.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,




17

EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
The sharp fall of imports in April was checked in May. The value of exports again declined slightly.
MILLIONS

OF

MILLIONS

DOLLARS

OF

DOLLARS

1,600

1,600

—

1,400 -

1,200

1,200

1,000

- 1,000

-

800

800

600 -

600

400

400

200

- 200

-

1943

1936-38

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

* RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS, AND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED AREAS
** RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE

NAVY.

[Millions of dollars]
Exports 1

Period
1936-38 monthly average.
1943 monthly average
1 945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: April
May
June
July...
August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February
March
April
May
1
1

__

_

_

.

877
849

1,281

207
282
346
409
478

1,362
1,503
1,320
1,265
1,265
1,183
1,303
1,195
1,199

512
474
463
450
400
481
492
455
601

1,091
1,086
1,141
1,122
1, 103

546
582
666
527
549

247

1, 080

_

Imports 2

Excess of
exports

Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas.
Recorded general merchandise imports.
Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy.




18

1,400

40
798
531
440
803
850

1,029

857
815
865
702
811
740
598
545
504
475
595
554

O

N

D

Section E: PURCHASING POWER
NATIONAL INCOME
National income increased very little in 2nd quarter, the only significant increase being in
business and professional income (part of proprietors'income as shown on the chart).
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250

A N N U A L TOTALS

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

TOTAL NATIONAL
INCOME
200

200
CORPORATE PROFITS AND
INVENTORY VALUATION
ADJUSTMENT;

PROPRIETORS' AND RENTAL
INCOME

I 50

150

I 00

100

COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES
50

1944

1939

1945

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A O V I S £ R S

[Billions of dollars]
Total
National
Income

Period

1939
1944.-.
1945
1946
1947..

72.5
182.3
182.8
178.2
203.1

-

Compensation of
employees

47.8
121.2
122.9
116.8
128. 1

Corporate profProprietors'
its and invenand rental Net interest tory
valuation
income
adjustment

14.7
34.4
37.1
41.8
47.8

4.2
3.2

3. 1

3.2
3.6

5.8

23.5
19.7
16.5
23.6

Annual i ates, seasonal] y adjusted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter.
1948: First quarter 1
Second quarter




—

_.
_

194.6
199.8
203.3
214.3

124. 7
125.6
128.7
132.9

46.2
46.7
47.0
51.5

3.3
3.5
3.7
3.8

20.4
23.9
23.9
26.1

217.1
218.0

134.6
134.5

52/6
53.6

3.8
3.8

26.1
26.1

1

Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.

19

CORPORATE PROFITS
Preliminary data for 1st quarter 1948 indicate that profits continue at about the level reached in 4th quarter
of 1947.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
40

BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S

40

ANNUAL TOTALS

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

PROFITS BEFORE TAXES*

30

20

10

UNDISTRIBUTED PROFITS

1929

1939

1943

* NO ALLOWANCE FOR INVENTORY VALUATION

ADJUSTMENT,

* PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE BASED ON INCONPLETE DATA.

SOURCE : DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

[Billions of dollars]
Corporate
profits
before taxes

Period

1929
1939
1943
1946
1947

9.8
6.5
24.5
21. 1
29.2

Corporate
tax
liability
1.4
1.5
14.2
8.6
11.5

Corporate profits afi ,er taxes
Total
8.4
5.0
10.4
12.5
17.8

Dividend
payments
5.8
3.8
4.5
5.6
6.8

Undistributed
profits
2.6
1.2
5.9
6.9
11.0

Annual i•ates, seasonal]y adjusted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter 1

_.

28.9
27.8
28.2
32.2

11.5
10.9
11. 1
12.6

17.4
16.9
17. 1
19.7

6.3
6.5
6.8
7.3

11.1
10.4
10.3
12.4

32.0

12.3

19.7

7.5

12.2

1

Preliminary estimate based on incomplete'data.
NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment.
add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.

20




Detail will not necessarily

PERSONAL INCOME
The decrease in salaries and wages in April, centered in manufacturing and attributed to work stoppages and
material shortages, partially offset fhe rise inform income (part of proprietors'income shown on chart).
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S

ANNUAL T O T A L S

S E A S O N A L L Y ADJUSTED A N N U A L - R A T E S

200 -

200

150 -

150
PROPRIETORS

AND RENTAL INCOME

100 -

100

SALARIES, WAGES, ETC

1939

J F -

1944 1945

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

'

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A**M

J

J

A

S

N

0

^TERMINAL LEAVE BOND CASH INGS STARTED IN SEPTEMBER, 1947
^^PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
Council Of Economic Advisers

SOURCE' Department of Commerce.

[Billions of dollars]
Total
personal
income

Period

1939
1944
1945
1946
1947

.

-.

72. 6
164. 9
171. 6
177. 2
196.8

Salaries, wages, Proprietors' Dividends Social security
and rental and interest and GI payand other
ments
income
labor income
45.6
116. 2
116. 7
110.8
122. 5

14. 7
34.4
37. 1
41.8
47.8

9.2

10.7
11.6
13.3
14. 9

3.0
3.6
6.2

11.3
11.6

Annual raites, seasonallyr adjusted
1947: May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

190.5
194. 1
194.9
193.8
209.9
203.2
204.2
210.4

119. 1
121.9
121. 7
123.0
125.0
125. 6
128.3
130.0

46. 5
47. 1
47.4
45.5
48. 1
50.4
49. 9
54.0

14.4
14.6
14.7
14. 9
15.6
15.4
15.5
15.6

10.5
10. 5
11. 1
10.4
21.2
11.8
10.5
10.8

1948: January
February
March
April

211.4
207.7
207.7
209. 1

130. 1
129.0
128. 2
127.6

54. 5
51.6
51.5
53,7

15.7
15.8
16. 0
16. 1

11. 1
11.3
12.0
11.7




0

NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.

CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING
Consumption expenditures increased more than income in the 2nd quarter. There was
a lower rate of saving.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

ANNUAL TOTALS

200

200

DISPOSABLE
*
PERSONAL INCOME*

150

150

100

100

CONSUMPTION
EXPENDITURES

50

50

J

1940

1939

1941

1942

1943

1944

2
3
1946

1945

* PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES.

2
3
1947

I

1948

# X PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE

SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL

OF ECONOMIC

[Billions of dollars]
Disposable
personal
income J

Period
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943.
1944_
1945. ._
1946...
1947

70.2
75.7
92.0
116.2
131.6
146.0
150. 7
158.4
175. 3

Less: Personal
consumption
expenditures

Equals: Personal saving

67.5
72. 1
82.3
90.8
101.6
110.4
121. 7
143.7
164.4

2.7
3.7

9. 8
25.4
30.0
35. 6
29. 0
14. 8
10. 9

Annual ]''ates, seasonally adjusted
1947: First quarter.
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter.
1948: First quarter 2
Second quarter
1
1

_

_

_

Income less taxes.
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Commerce.

22




^ _

_ _

168. 8
170. 1
177.9
183. 7

156.9
162. 3
165.8
172. 5

11.9
7. 8
12. 1
11.2

__ _

186.1
189.5

173.2
177.0

12.9
12.5

ADVISERS

PER CAPITA INCOME *
The increase in per capita income hardly kept pace with the rise in consumers1 prices.
DOLLARS

DOLLARS

1,600

1,600
SEASONALLY

1 s t - H A L F OF 1947

ADJUSTED

ANNUAL

RATES

DOLLARS**

1,200

1,200

800

800

CURRENT

DOLLARS

400

400

1939

1940

PERSONAL MC<?#£ LfSS

1941

1942

1943

1944

1945

I

1946

TAXES.

** CURREN.J DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT *OF C O M M E R C E

I ST HALF OF 1947 * 100.

PRELIMINARY

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

-_
-.

Current dollars

First half of
1947 dollars 2

$536

$838

1,057
1,080
1, 122
1,216

1,021
1, 151
1,211
1,308
1,306
1,251
1, 187

574
691
863
964

890

Annual rate s, seasonally
adju isted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter 3
Second quarter




_

4

I94S

ESTIMATES.

AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

Per capita disposable
personal
income l

1939
1940
1941. _ .
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947

2***3

1947

Consumers'
price index,
first half of
1947= 100

64.0
64.5
67.7
75.0
79.5
80.8
82. 6
89.6
102.4
Not adjusted
for seasonal
variation

1, 180
1, 184
1,232
1,266

1, 188
1,177
1,190
1,191

99.3
100.6
103.5
106.3

1, 277
1,295

1, 184
1,182

107.9
109.6

1
2
3

Income less taxes.
Current dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base first half of 1947=100.
Preliminary estimate.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.

23

AVERAC3E HOU]RLY
/Werage

EA:RNINGS

hourly e arnings increasec\ slightly in Apr 1. Preli minary data for manufacturing inidicate that this

1rend continued iii May.
OOLLA RS PER HOUR

OOLLA RS PER HOUR

RETAIL TRADE

MANUFACTURING
1.50

1.50

S> 1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS*
••••MM***

—^
1.00

'**""*'

1jM

1st HALF OF 19 47 DOLLARS*

in***

i-^—X

1.00

N

CUR RENT DOLLARS

0 • "»

- •— jjrrCUF RENT DOLLARS

.50

.50

0

i i i i i 1 i i i i i
- 1946

i i . i i 1 i i i i i

I

f

1

1

1

1947

1

1

1

1

1

0

1

, , . , , 1 , 1 1 , .

i i i t i i i i i i i

i i i i i 1 i i i ii

1946

1947

1948

1948

PRIVATEI BUILDING CONSTRUCTION

BITU MINOUS COAL Ml NING

a.oo

»

,

,

2.00

1st HALF OF 1947 D Q L L A R S * ^ ^ —»~+^~'*+

-/

'

/**" V"^r
RENT DOLLARS

1.50

—^X/

1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS*

1.50

•**

_1^?*1
^CUF RENT DOLLARS

CUF

1.00

••«

1.00

.50

50

i i i i i 1" i i t i i

i i i i i 1 i i i t i

1946

1947

1

1

1

1

t

1

1

1

1

1

. . . . . 1 . . . . .

0

1

1948

1946

1

1

1

1

1

I

1

1

1

1

!

1948

1947

# CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX Of V THE BASE /Sf HALF OF 1947 *IOO.
SOURCE:

DEPARTMENT OF

30UNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

LABOR.

[Selected industries]
Manufsicturing
Period
Current
dollars
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average..
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1948 : January
February
March8
April
...
May3

_,

._

1
Covers only employees
2
Current dollars divided
8
Preliminary estimate.
4

Based on pay period during coal stoppage.

24

$0. 989
1.077
1.261
1.238
1.210
1. 192
1.202
1.213
1.207
1. 198
1. 185
1. 194
1. 195
1. 189
1. 183
1. 194
1. 200
1. 185
1.184

Current
dollars

$0. 536
.568
.724
.773
.878
.991
.985
.996
1.003
1.003
1.012
1.013
1.025
1. 016
1. 044
1.050
1.045
1.055

First half
of 1947
dollars 2

$0 838
839
896
936
980
968
981
985
984
972
960
961
966
945
961
974
973
969

at the site of privately financed building projects.
by consumers' price index on the base first hah7 of 1947= a oo.

Source: Department of Labor.



$0. 633
.729
1.019
1.023
1.084
1.221
1.207
1.226
1.230
1.236
1.249
1.258
1.268
1. 278
1. 285
1.287
1.289
1.291
1.299

First half
of 1947
dollars 2

Retail trade

Bituminous coal mining
Current
dollars

$0. 886
.993
1. 186
1.240
1.401
1. 644
1.470
1.489
1. 740
1.787
1.819
1. 798
1.851
1. 826
1.847
1.826
1.841
4
1. 822

First half
of 1947
dollars 2

$1. 384
1.467
1.468
1.501
1.564
1.605
1.464
1.473
1.708
1.732
1.726
1.706
1.745
1. 699
1. 701
1.694
1. 714
4
1. 673

Private builc ing
constructio n 1
Current
dollars

$0. 932
1.010
1. 319
1.379
1.478
1.676
1.656
1. 661
1.669
1.689
1.718
1. 738
1. 765
1.774
1. 781
1. 806
1. 805
1. 822

First half
of 1947
dollars 2

$1. 456
1. 492
1. 632
1. 669
1. 650
1.637
1. 649
1. 643
1. 638
1. 637
1. 630
1. 649
1. 664
1.650
1. 640
1. 675
1. 681
1, 673

AVERAC*E WEE KLY EA.RN] ENGS

1

<

Small increases i n weekly earninc3S in nonmanufa cturing industries in April reflected
Spring wage incr eases. With the workweek in man ufacturi ng practically unchanged in May,
weekly earnings ( preliminary) alsc) rose a little.

DOLL ARS PER W E E K

DOLL ARS

PER WEEK

RETAIL TRADE

MANUFACTURING
60

60

CURREN f DOLLARS
X

"""*
40

TT

-*+—•—

_IU

m^^^^t
/

/

*»—•••»•* ""*

CURRENT DOLLARS
\

40

1st HA LF OF 1947 DOLLARS* *

^

^

^^-^~~~~~~

^

1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS
20

,

i i i i i 1 i \ i i i

i i i t i 1 ii i i i

1946

1947

1948

0

0

i t t i i 1 i i i i i

BITU MINOUS COAL Ml MING

I I

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

I

1

1948

1947

PRIVATE BUILDING CONST RUCTION
100

80

80

CUR RENT DOLLARS

s'*
*^ f\
' ^~**z*l

^V

* T^!"_1^mj-^

CURRENT DOLLARS
\^^ ^

V I
a^

1
1

20

20

1 1 ! 1 1 1 I 1 1

1946
* EARNINGS
SOURCE:

II

i i i i i 1 i i i i i

—

^*

__^ -^^^^T

\

/

1 1 .1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

OR VAC A TlONS.

*

i i i i i 1 i i I i i

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1

1946

DATA DISTORTED D URING THESE MONTHS BECAUSE - OF WORK STOPPAGES
OF

0

1948

1947

DEPARTMENT

'

1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS*
40

( 1 1 1 1 1 1

»^

—~^*^*~'^

40

1 1 II

^%

60
/

1st H4
^LF OF 1947 DOLLARS **

'

0

i t i i i 1 i i i i t

1946

100

60

* K

20

1948

1947

^ * ' CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY CONSUMER'S

PRICE INDEX OlV QASE 1ST HALF OF 194? * 100
C OUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

LABOR.

[Selected industries]
Manufe icturing
Period
Current
dollars
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February
March
April38
May

-.
_

-

$23. 86
29. 58
46.08
44.39
43. 74
49.25
48.44
49.33
48.98
49. 17
50.47
51.05
51.29
52.69
52.07
51.75
52.06
51.68
51.89

First half
of 1947
dollars 2

$37. 28
43. 69
57.03
53.74
48.82
48. 10
48.25
48.79
48.07
47.65
47.88
48.43
48. 34
49.01
47.95
48.01
48.47
47.46
47.30

Retail trade
Current
dollars

$21. 17
21.94
26.58
28.31
32.55
36. 70
36. 50
37.82
37.99
38. 14
37.06
36.74
37. 14
37.51
37.62
38.33
38.02
38.40

1
Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.
2
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base first half of
1
Preliminary estimate.
4

First half
of 1947
dollars *

$33. 08
32.40
32.90
34.27
36.33
35.84
36.35
37.41
37.28
36.96
35. 16
34.86
35.00
34.89
34.64
35.56
35.40
35.26

Bituminous coal mining
Current
dollars
$23.88
30.86
51.27
52. 25
58.03
66. 82
65.51
67.09
54. 87
70.23
71.19
71.91
71.77
75.22
75.78
70.54
74.61
4
49. 33

First half
of 1947
dollars 2

$37. 31
45.58
63.45
63.26
64.77
65.25
65.25
66.36
53.85
68.05
67. 54
68.23
67.64
69.97
69.78
65.44
69.47
4
45. 30

Private bu ilding
construc tion 1
Current
dollars

$30. 39
35. 14
52. 18
53.73
56,24
63.28
62. 38
62.68
63.30
66.97
65. 22
66. 14
64.55
67.31
66.28
66.31
66.89
67.58

First half
of 1947
dollars 3

$47. 48
51. 91
64.58
65.05
62.77
61.80
62. 13
62,00
62.12
64.89
61.88
62.75
60.84
62.61
61.03
61.53
62.28
62. 06

1947= = 100.

Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
Source: Department of Labor.




25

FARM INCOME
Dollar farm income in May was running a little ahead of last year but farmers were paying higher prices.
BILLIONS

BILLIONS

OF DOLLARS

OF

DOLLARS

4

4

1939

40

J

41

* CASH RECEIPTS

FROM MARKETING AND GOVERNMENT

** FARM

IN CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE INDEX

SOURCE:

INCOME

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

O

N

D

J

OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST,

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

_
_

_
_ .

_

__

_

_

_

_

.

_

Farm income
(millions of
current
dollars) l

Prices paid by
farmers (incl.
interest and
taxes) 1939
=
100 2

723
761
981

100.0
100.8
106.5
121.0
130.6
136.3
138.7
155.6
186.3
183.9
185.5
185.5
188.7
191.9
192.7
194.4
197.6
202.4
200.0
199.2
200.8
201.6

1, 340
1,678
1,753
1,857
2, 110
2,543
2,026
2,211
2,662
2,517
3,060
3,773
3, 109
2,927
2,581
1,866
2,001
2,096
2,178

1
Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments.
2
Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1939=100.
1
4 Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest,

Preliminary.

Source: Department of Agriculture,



M

AND TAXES ON THE BASE 1939-100.

DEPARTMENT OF A G R I C U L T U R E .

1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average. .1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average.
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: May
June™
July
August.
September
October,
November
December
1948: January
February
March
.
April—
4
May

F

PAYMENTS.

Period

26

S

Farm income,
(millions of
1939 dollars)3

and taxes, 1939= = 100.

723
755
921

1, 107
1,285
1,286
1,339
1,356
1,365
1,102
1, 192
1,435
1,334
1,595
1,958
1,599
1,481
1,276

933

1,005
1,044
1,080

AVERAGE FAMILY INCOME
All groups received more income in 1946 than before the war.
Greatest relative increases were in the lower and middle groups.
MONEY INCOME BEFORE TAXES, 1946 DOLLARS

FAMILIES'"

2,000

GROUPED
FROM LOWEST
TO HIGHEST
INCOME

4,000

8,000

6,000

10,000

LOWEST
FIFTH

SECOND
FIFTH

THIRD
FIFTH

FOURTH
FIFTH

HIGHEST
FIFTH

INCLUDES SINGLE INDIVIDUALS.
COUNCIL. OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: THE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JANUARY 1948.

Money income beforei taxes,
1946 dollars

Percent increase

Families grouped from llowest to
highest income
1935-36
Lowest fifth
Second fifth
Third fifth
Fourth fifth
Highest fifth
Average for all families *

1941

1946

1935-36
to 1946

1941 to 1946

1,515
2,284
5,928

$498
1,275
2,243
3,225
7,418

$835
2,023
3,050
4,201
8,921

87
109
101
84
50

68
59
36
30
20

2,229

2,932

3,806

71

30

$446
969

1

Includes single individuals.
Source: The Economic Report of the President, January 1948, p. 18,




27

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
In 2nd quarter, durable purchases more than recovered from their 1st quarter drop; services and
nondurables continued up.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
200

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
200
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

TOTAL EXPENDITURES

\
150

150

100

100

1939
*

PRELIMINARY

1944

1945

ESTIMATE.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

[Billions of dollars]
Per sonal consump>tion expenditiires

Period
Nondurable
goods

Total
19391944.
1945.
1946
1947

67.5
110.4
121. 7
143.7
164.4

35.3
67.2
75.3
87. 1
99.3

Durable
goods
6.7
6.8
8.0
14. 9
19.8

Services
25.5
36.5
38.4
41.7
45.3

An nual rates, se£isonally adjust ed

1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

156.9
162.3
165. 8
172.5

94.7
98.4
99.9
104.2

18.2
19.3
20. 2
21. 3

44.0
44.6
45.7
47.0

1948: First quarter
Second quarter i

173.2
177.0

104. 3
106. 5

20.7
21.5

48.2
49.0

1

Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce,




28

CONSUMER CREDIT
Instalment credit increased again in May as charge accounts and other consumer credit held steady.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

12 -

10 -

1929

1939 1941
END OF YEAR

1943

J F M A M J J A S O N O J
1946

F M A M J J

A . S O N O J F M A M J J A S O N D
'948
END OF MONTH
l947

*SINGLE PAYMENT LOANS AND 5£V?VICE CR£DIT

Council of Economic Advisers

SOURCE: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve S y s t e m

[Billions of dollars]
Total
consumer
credit
outstanding

End of period

7.6
8.0

3.2

5.3

2. 0

2.4
4.0
6.2

2.0

2.3

3.6

3.6

10.9
11.2
11.3
11.4
11.7
12. 1
12.6
13.4

4.7
4.9
5.0
5.2

2.8
2.9
2.8
2.8

3.4
3.4
3.5
3.5

5.7
6.2

3.3
3.6

3.6
3.6

13.0
12.9
13.4
13.6
13.8

6.2
6.2
6.5
6.7
7.0

3.2
3.1
3.3
3.3
3.3

3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6

6. 6
10.2
13.4

1947: May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February
March
April
May

._
._

_

Other
consumer
credit 2
2.7
2.0
2.2

9. 9

_

Charge
accounts

1.7
1.5
1.8

1929.
193919411943.
194519461947-

.

Instalment
credit *

4. 4
5.9

5.3
5.5

1. 5

3. 1

2.9
3.0

1. 9

3. 1

3.5
3.6

1

Includes automobile and other sale credit and repair and modernization loans insured by Federal Housing Administration.
2
Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit,
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.



29

Section F:
MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS
Bank loans increased $600 million in May; investments in Government securities decreased $400 million.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

125
TOTAL (All commercial banks)

100

75

50

50

25

J

1929 1939 1945

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

O

END OF YEAR
END OF MONTH
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE

SOURCE: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Council of Economic Advisers

[Billions of dollars]
Loans and invesstrnents, all co mmercial bank.8

Investments

End of period

Total

Bank loans
Total

1929
1939
1945
1946
1947...
1947: May
June
July..
August
September
October
November
December..
1948: January.
February
March.
April 1
May
1

.

_

_ .
.

_

49.5
40.7
124.0
114.0
116.4
112.9
112.8
113.4
114.0
115.2
116.3
116.6
116.3
116.6
115. 5
113.6
114.3
114.5

36.0
17.2
26. 1
31. 1
38.1
33. 1
33.7
34.0
34.9
35.5
36.8
37.6
38. 1
38.2
38.7
38.9
38.8
39.4

Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily addfto totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Digitized30
for FRASER


13. 5
23. 4
97.9
82.9
78.3
79.8
79.1
79.4
79. 1
79.7
79.5
79.0
78.2
78.4
76.9
74.7
75.5
75. 1

U. S. Government
securities
4.8

16.3
90.6
74.8
69.3
71.5
70.5
70.7
70.3
70.8
70.5
70. 1
69.2
69. 4
67.9
65. 5
66.3
65.9

Other
securities
8.7

7. 1

7.3

8. 1

9.0
8,3
8.5
8.7
8.8
8.9
9.0
8.9
9,0
9,0
9.0
9.3
9.2
9.2

MONEY SUPPLY
Total money supply increased again in May as a result of the rise in private demand deposits.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
150

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
150

125

125

100

100

75

50

25

1929

1939

1941

1943

1946

1945

END OF Y E A R

'PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE

END OF MONTH
SOURCE: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Systerr

Council of Economic A d v i s e r s

[Billions of dollars]
Total money
supply

End of period

1929.
1939.
1941..
1943..
1945..
194619471947: May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February
March
April 8
May ...

.
_
_

26.5
37.0
50.5
90. 1
126.9
113.1
115.1
109.8
109. 8
110.6
111.3
112.5
113.5
114.4
115. 1
113.7
112.0
109.6
110.9
111.0

Currency
outside
banks
3.6
6.4
9.6

18.8
26.5
26.7
26.5
26. 1
26.3
26.0
26.2
26.4
26.3
26.6
26.5
25.8
25.6
25.6
25.4
25.4

Adjusted
demand
deposits 1

22. 8
29.8
39.0
60.8
75.9
83.3
87.1
81.5
82. 1
83.2
83.4
84. 2
85.4
85.9
87.1
86.6
84.6
81.6
83.0
83.2

U. S. Government
deposits 2
0.2
.8
1.9

10.4
24.6

3.1
1.5
2.2
1.4
1.4
1.7
1.9
1.8
1.9
1.5
1.3
1.8
2.4
2.5
2.4

1
Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection.
2
Beginning December 1938, includes U. S. Treasurer's time deposits, open account.
3
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




31

FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND
PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC
The excess of Federal cash receipts over cash payments for the 1st half of 1948 was $7.6 billion* Preliminary
estimates for the last half of 1948 indicate a close balance.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
20

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

20
QUARTERLY TOTALS, NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL

15

15

I0

10

J

I

I

I

I

3

2

-

4

I

2

3

1946
* PRELIMINARY

ESTIMATE,

2*

BASED ON ACTUAL

DATA

3

1948

1947
THROUGH MAY 31, 1948

SOURCE: TREASURY DEPARTMENT

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars]
Calendar year and quarter
1946: First quarter
Second quarter —
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1947: First quarter.
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter. l
Second quarter

_
._

._
_
_

Federal cash
receipts from
the public

Federal cash
payments to
the public

14, 153
11, 098
10, 377
9, 870
14, 962
11, 430
10, 470
10,011
15, 732
11,465

13, 648
13, 599
9,106
8,909
9,772
12, 198
10, 503
8,666
9,322
10, 273

Excess of receipts (+) or
payments (— )
+ 505
-2,501
+ 1,271
+ 961
+ 5, 190
-768
-33

+ 1,345
+ 6,410
+ 1,192

1

Preliminary estimate, based on actual data through May 31,1948.
Source: Treasury Department.

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U. S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D, C.
rrice 15 cents




32

U. S. G O V E R N M E N T P R I N T I N G O F F I C E : 1948