Full text of Economic Indicators : January 2019
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116th Congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators JANUARY 2019 (Includes data available as of March 8, 2019) Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 2019 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) Senate House of Representatives COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Kevin A. Hassett, Chairman Richard V. Burkhauser, Member Tomas J. Philipson, Member [Public Law 120—81st Congress; Chapter 237—1st Session] JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. R es. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled “Economic Indicators” Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled “Economic Indicators,” and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts prepared under the direction of the Mail and Multimedia Division, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Monthly issues of Economic Indicators in PDF form, and tables in Excel, are available online at: www.gpo.gov/economicindicators To subscribe to the print edition, $58.00 per year ($81.20 outside the United States), contact the U.S. Government Publishing Office at 202-512-1800, www.gpo.gov/economicindicators, or: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE MAIL STOP: IDCC WASHINGTON, DC 20402-9328 ii TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Gross Domestic Product In the fourth quarter of 2018, according to initial estimates, real gross domestic product (GDP) in chained (2012) dollars rose 2.6 percent (annual rate), current dollar GDP rose 4.6 percent, and the chained price index rose 1.8 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 21,200 21,200 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 20,800 20,800 20,400 20,400 20,000 20,000 19,600 19,600 19,200 19,200 18,800 18,800 18,400 18,400 18,000 18,000 17,600 17,600 GDP IN CURRENT DOLLARS 17,200 17,200 16,800 16,800 16,400 16,400 GDP IN CHAINED (2012) DOLLARS 16,000 16,000 15,600 15,600 15,200 15,200 14,800 14,800 14,400 14,400 14,000 14,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 2017 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2018 p ������������������ 2016: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2017: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2018: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV p ����������� Gross domestic product 14,448.9 14,992.1 15,542.6 16,197.0 16,784.9 17,521.7 18,219.3 18,707.2 19,485.4 20,500.6 18,409.1 18,640.7 18,799.6 18,979.2 19,162.6 19,359.1 19,588.1 19,831.8 20,041.0 20,411.9 20,658.2 20,891.4 Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment 9,842.2 10,185.8 10,641.1 11,006.8 11,317.2 11,824.0 12,294.5 12,766.9 13,321.4 13,951.6 12,526.5 12,706.5 12,845.2 12,989.4 13,114.1 13,233.2 13,359.1 13,579.2 13,679.6 13,875.6 14,050.5 14,200.6 1,929.7 2,165.5 2,332.6 2,621.8 2,826.0 3,038.9 3,212.0 3,169.9 3,368.0 3,652.2 3,142.1 3,152.2 3,157.7 3,227.6 3,278.6 3,337.9 3,413.9 3,441.4 3,543.8 3,579.5 3,710.7 3,774.6 Exports and imports of goods and services Net exports –396.5 –513.9 –579.5 –568.6 –490.8 –508.3 –521.4 –520.6 –578.4 –625.6 –522.2 –496.2 –503.7 –560.2 –576.6 –571.9 –557.3 –607.9 –639.2 –549.8 –653.5 –659.8 Federal Exports 1,582.0 1,846.3 2,103.0 2,191.3 2,273.4 2,371.0 2,265.0 2,217.6 2,350.2 2,530.9 2,165.6 2,206.6 2,252.5 2,245.6 2,294.1 2,316.3 2,358.3 2,432.0 2,477.4 2,568.7 2,538.6 2,538.9 Imports 1,978.4 2,360.2 2,682.5 2,759.9 2,764.2 2,879.3 2,786.5 2,738.1 2,928.6 3,156.5 2,687.8 2,702.7 2,756.3 2,805.8 2,870.7 2,888.2 2,915.5 3,039.9 3,116.6 3,118.5 3,192.1 3,198.7 Chart 1 - Jan/Feb 2019 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Total 3,073.5 3,154.6 3,148.4 3,137.0 3,132.4 3,167.0 3,234.2 3,291.0 3,374.4 3,522.5 3,262.7 3,278.2 3,300.5 3,322.4 3,346.4 3,360.0 3,372.3 3,419.1 3,456.8 3,506.6 3,550.5 3,575.9 Total 1,218.2 1,297.9 1,298.9 1,286.5 1,226.6 1,214.2 1,220.9 1,232.2 1,265.2 1,319.9 1,223.5 1,225.4 1,235.9 1,244.1 1,252.4 1,264.0 1,263.8 1,280.6 1,294.8 1,313.0 1,329.5 1,342.2 National defense Nondefense 787.6 828.0 834.0 814.2 764.2 742.5 729.5 727.3 743.9 779.0 724.8 722.4 730.6 731.5 734.9 746.7 743.1 750.7 759.0 772.6 784.3 799.9 430.6 469.9 465.0 472.4 462.4 471.6 491.3 504.9 521.3 540.9 498.7 502.9 505.3 512.7 517.5 517.3 520.7 529.8 535.8 540.4 545.2 542.3 State and local 1,855.3 1,856.7 1,849.4 1,850.5 1,905.8 1,952.9 2,013.3 2,058.8 2,109.2 2,202.6 2,039.2 2,052.9 2,064.7 2,078.3 2,093.9 2,096.0 2,108.5 2,138.5 2,162.0 2,193.5 2,221.0 2,233.7 Final Addendum: Gross sales of Gross domestic domestic purchases national 1 product product 14,599.7 14,938.1 15,496.3 16,125.8 16,680.3 17,437.3 18,090.6 18,678.2 19,459.9 20,444.1 18,361.1 18,615.6 18,799.2 18,937.1 19,154.6 19,342.1 19,532.7 19,810.4 20,004.7 20,422.3 20,565.5 20,783.9 14,845.4 14,590.9 15,506.0 15,187.8 16,122.0 15,779.0 16,765.6 16,429.3 17,275.6 17,015.6 18,030.0 17,763.4 18,740.7 18,445.5 19,227.8 18,922.5 20,063.8 19,729.1 21,126.2 ����������������� 18,931.3 18,613.3 19,136.9 18,853.3 19,303.4 18,997.5 19,539.4 19,226.0 19,739.1 19,395.3 19,931.1 19,575.4 20,145.3 19,843.0 20,439.7 20,102.6 20,680.2 20,309.8 20,961.7 20,678.9 21,311.7 20,913.3 21,551.2 ����������������� 1 GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 1 Real Gross Domestic Product [Billions of chained (2012) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2018 p ������������������ 2016: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2017: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2018: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV p ����������� Gross private domestic investment Personal Gross conChange domestic sumption Nonresi- Resiin product expendi- dential dential fixed fixed private tures investinvestinvenment ment tories 15,208.8 15,598.8 15,840.7 16,197.0 16,495.4 16,899.8 17,386.7 17,659.2 18,050.7 18,571.3 17,523.4 17,622.5 17,706.7 17,784.2 17,863.0 17,995.2 18,120.8 18,223.8 18,324.0 18,511.6 18,665.0 18,784.6 10,460.0 10,643.0 10,843.8 11,006.8 11,166.9 11,494.3 11,921.9 12,248.2 12,558.7 12,890.6 12,111.8 12,214.1 12,294.3 12,372.7 12,427.6 12,515.9 12,584.9 12,706.4 12,722.8 12,842.0 12,953.3 13,044.2 1,704.3 1,781.0 1,935.4 2,118.5 2,206.0 2,357.4 2,399.7 2,411.2 2,538.1 2,714.8 2,380.9 2,403.3 2,430.3 2,430.4 2,486.5 2,530.8 2,552.3 2,582.7 2,654.0 2,710.1 2,727.0 2,768.0 395.3 383.0 382.5 432.0 485.5 504.2 555.3 591.3 611.1 609.6 590.9 589.4 586.9 597.9 613.8 605.2 604.5 620.7 615.3 613.2 607.7 602.3 –177.3 57.3 46.7 71.2 108.7 86.6 129.0 23.4 22.5 45.1 50.7 17.8 –14.1 39.1 –2.4 11.9 64.4 16.1 30.3 –36.8 89.8 97.1 Exports and imports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total –484.8 –565.9 –568.1 –568.6 –532.8 –577.7 –724.9 –786.2 –858.7 –914.1 –777.9 –764.1 –766.3 –836.7 –845.5 –844.1 –845.9 –899.2 –902.4 –841.0 –949.7 –963.2 1,763.8 1,977.9 2,119.0 2,191.3 2,269.6 2,367.0 2,380.6 2,378.1 2,450.1 2,546.6 2,351.1 2,370.9 2,406.4 2,384.2 2,413.3 2,435.0 2,456.1 2,495.9 2,517.8 2,574.2 2,542.2 2,552.0 2,248.6 2,543.8 2,687.1 2,759.9 2,802.4 2,944.7 3,105.5 3,164.4 3,308.7 3,460.6 3,129.0 3,135.0 3,172.6 3,220.9 3,258.8 3,279.1 3,302.0 3,395.1 3,420.1 3,415.2 3,491.9 3,515.2 3,307.3 3,307.2 3,203.3 3,137.0 3,061.0 3,032.3 3,088.5 3,132.5 3,130.4 3,177.8 3,133.3 3,126.7 3,134.4 3,135.6 3,129.6 3,130.0 3,121.8 3,140.2 3,152.2 3,171.8 3,192.0 3,195.3 National Nondefense defense Total 1,293.0 1,346.1 1,311.1 1,286.5 1,215.3 1,183.2 1,183.0 1,187.8 1,196.4 1,227.8 1,188.6 1,183.9 1,188.7 1,190.1 1,190.0 1,197.1 1,193.2 1,205.2 1,213.1 1,224.0 1,234.7 1,239.5 836.7 861.3 842.9 814.2 759.6 728.0 713.5 709.2 713.8 738.2 711.7 705.8 710.7 708.5 707.9 717.6 712.3 717.5 722.8 733.3 742.2 754.6 456.3 484.8 468.3 472.4 455.6 455.0 469.1 478.0 481.9 489.1 476.3 477.4 477.3 480.9 481.4 478.9 480.3 487.0 489.5 490.1 492.0 484.9 AddenFinal Gross dum: sales of domestic Gross domestic purchases 1 national product product State and local 2,015.6 1,961.3 1,892.2 1,850.5 1,845.3 1,848.1 1,903.9 1,942.8 1,932.3 1,948.9 1,942.9 1,940.9 1,943.8 1,943.6 1,937.7 1,931.3 1,926.9 1,933.5 1,937.7 1,946.6 1,956.3 1,955.0 15,373.0 15,546.6 15,796.5 16,125.8 16,386.2 16,809.9 17,253.6 17,617.5 18,008.7 18,507.1 17,459.7 17,586.2 17,696.3 17,728.0 17,841.9 17,963.6 18,042.6 18,186.5 18,274.4 18,515.9 18,562.1 18,675.9 15,698.9 15,359.4 16,164.7 15,803.9 16,408.8 16,081.7 16,765.6 16,429.3 17,028.6 16,722.3 17,475.9 17,135.1 18,099.6 17,608.3 18,428.0 17,867.8 18,881.0 18,284.0 19,449.2 �������������� 18,284.9 17,723.3 18,372.8 17,829.1 18,457.8 17,898.4 18,596.4 18,020.4 18,681.9 18,087.6 18,813.5 18,203.6 18,941.2 18,364.1 19,087.4 18,480.8 19,190.2 18,581.5 19,324.8 18,766.4 19,574.7 18,908.0 19,706.9 �������������� 1 GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Note: Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2012) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). Chained Price Indexes For Gross Domestic Product [Index numbers, 2012=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Period 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2018 p ������������������ 2016: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2017: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2018: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV p ����������� Gross domestic product 94.999 96.109 98.112 100.000 101.773 103.687 104.757 105.899 107.932 110.337 105.043 105.738 106.110 106.703 107.233 107.553 108.134 108.807 109.348 110.172 110.669 111.161 Personal consumption expenditures Total 94.094 95.705 98.131 100.000 101.346 102.868 103.126 104.235 106.073 108.230 103.428 104.036 104.485 104.989 105.528 105.735 106.156 106.873 107.524 108.052 108.474 108.869 Goods Services 93.812 95.183 98.773 100.000 99.407 98.939 95.889 94.340 94.632 95.280 94.193 94.470 94.259 94.440 94.964 94.298 94.462 94.804 95.324 95.413 95.329 95.054 Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 2 Gross private domestic investment 94.231 95.957 97.814 100.000 102.316 104.852 106.823 109.325 111.984 114.952 108.171 108.953 109.751 110.425 110.972 111.644 112.201 113.120 113.840 114.606 115.302 116.062 Nonresidential fixed 99.184 97.416 98.559 100.000 100.251 101.565 102.081 101.281 101.962 103.151 101.215 101.341 101.157 101.413 101.559 101.818 102.147 102.325 102.501 103.006 103.404 103.694 Residential fixed 98.671 98.317 99.049 100.000 105.054 111.106 114.100 118.185 123.495 130.466 115.804 117.326 119.058 120.551 121.446 122.955 124.320 125.258 127.938 130.216 131.373 132.337 Exports and imports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Exports 89.694 93.348 99.242 100.000 100.168 100.169 95.146 93.248 95.923 99.395 92.116 93.073 93.612 94.192 95.071 95.135 96.032 97.455 98.411 99.799 99.870 99.500 Imports 87.987 92.783 99.826 100.000 98.636 97.777 89.728 86.531 88.511 91.222 85.902 86.216 86.884 87.121 88.099 88.089 88.307 89.548 91.134 91.322 91.424 91.006 Total 94.214 96.421 99.070 100.000 100.931 102.618 103.200 103.737 105.753 107.497 102.934 103.502 103.970 104.541 105.245 105.594 105.914 106.257 106.739 107.274 107.682 108.292 National defense 94.126 96.128 98.946 100.000 100.609 101.995 102.256 102.557 104.209 105.512 101.836 102.356 102.794 103.241 103.821 104.056 104.322 104.637 105.010 105.355 105.671 106.012 Nondefense 94.364 96.942 99.289 100.000 101.478 103.656 104.739 105.631 108.188 110.594 104.706 105.346 105.858 106.613 107.502 108.023 108.422 108.806 109.452 110.270 110.816 111.837 State and local 92.048 94.669 97.739 100.000 103.279 105.670 105.748 105.970 109.155 113.012 104.962 105.769 106.218 106.931 108.061 108.528 109.428 110.603 111.572 112.686 113.533 114.257 Gross Domestic Product and Related Price Measures: Indexes and Percent Changes [Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Percent change from preceding period 1 Index numbers, 2012=100 Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) Gross domestic product (GDP) Period 2009 ���������������������� 2010 ���������������������� 2011 ���������������������� 2012 ���������������������� 2013 ���������������������� 2014 ���������������������� 2015 ���������������������� 2016 ���������������������� 2017 ���������������������� 2018 p �������������������� 2016: I ����������������� II ����������������� III ���������������� IV ���������������� 2017: I ����������������� II ����������������� III ���������������� IV ���������������� 2018: I ����������������� II ����������������� III ���������������� IV p ������������� Real GDP GDP (chain-type chain-type quantity price index) index 93.899 96.306 97.800 100.000 101.842 104.339 107.345 109.027 111.445 114.659 108.189 108.801 109.321 109.799 110.286 111.102 111.878 112.513 113.132 114.290 115.237 115.976 GDP implicit price deflator 94.999 96.109 98.112 100.000 101.773 103.687 104.757 105.899 107.932 110.337 105.043 105.738 106.110 106.703 107.233 107.553 108.134 108.807 109.348 110.172 110.669 111.161 PCE PCE less food (chain-type and price index) priceenergy index 95.004 96.111 98.118 100.000 101.755 103.680 104.789 105.935 107.948 110.389 105.055 105.778 106.172 106.720 107.275 107.580 108.097 108.824 109.371 110.266 110.679 111.215 94.094 95.705 98.131 100.000 101.346 102.868 103.126 104.235 106.073 108.230 103.428 104.036 104.485 104.989 105.528 105.735 106.156 106.873 107.524 108.052 108.474 108.869 95.315 96.608 98.139 100.000 101.526 103.168 104.501 106.237 107.961 110.005 105.461 106.008 106.546 106.933 107.365 107.724 108.102 108.654 109.242 109.814 110.246 110.719 Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) Gross domestic product (GDP) Gross domestic purchases price index 94.559 95.923 98.246 100.000 101.468 103.178 103.512 104.306 106.249 108.574 103.525 104.121 104.521 105.055 105.619 105.915 106.393 107.069 107.742 108.381 108.865 109.307 GDP (current dollars) Real GDP GDP (chain-type chain-type quantity price index) index –1.8 3.8 3.7 4.2 3.6 4.4 4.0 2.7 4.2 5.2 1.2 5.1 3.5 3.9 3.9 4.2 4.8 5.1 4.3 7.6 4.9 4.6 –2.5 2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.9 1.6 2.2 2.9 1.5 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.8 3.0 2.8 2.3 2.2 4.2 3.4 2.6 GDP implicit price deflator 0.8 1.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.0 1.1 1.9 2.2 –.2 2.7 1.4 2.3 2.0 1.2 2.2 2.5 2.0 3.0 1.8 1.8 Gross domestic PCE purchases PCE food price index (chain-type lessenergy price index) and price index 0.8 1.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.1 1.1 1.9 2.3 –.3 2.8 1.5 2.1 2.1 1.1 1.9 2.7 2.0 3.3 1.5 2.0 –0.1 1.7 2.5 1.9 1.3 1.5 .3 1.1 1.8 2.0 .2 2.4 1.7 1.9 2.1 .8 1.6 2.7 2.5 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.7 2.1 2.0 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.4 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.7 –0.3 1.4 2.4 1.8 1.5 1.7 .3 .8 1.9 2.2 –.5 2.3 1.5 2.1 2.2 1.1 1.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 1.8 1.6 1 Quarterly percent changes are at annual rates. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Gross Value Added and Price, Costs, and Profits [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Current dollars 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2016: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2017: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2018: I ���������������� II ��������������� III r ������������ Price per unit of real gross value added of nonfinancial corporate business (dollars) 1, 2 Gross value added of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars) 1 7,286.7 6,864.6 7,243.2 7,615.3 8,059.1 8,374.1 8,780.3 9,136.3 9,245.4 9,644.4 9,237.7 9,189.3 9,247.7 9,307.1 9,517.1 9,628.9 9,660.8 9,770.7 9,926.5 10,044.0 10,232.6 Chained (2012) dollars 7,809.2 7,255.1 7,568.0 7,774.1 8,059.1 8,261.5 8,517.3 8,810.0 8,942.5 9,246.1 8,945.6 8,863.3 9,000.0 8,961.2 9,071.4 9,233.7 9,291.9 9,387.3 9,508.5 9,527.2 9,705.2 Total 0.933 .946 .957 .980 1.000 1.014 1.031 1.037 1.034 1.043 1.033 1.037 1.028 1.039 1.049 1.043 1.040 1.041 1.044 1.054 1.054 Compensation of employees (unit labor cost) 0.559 .564 .551 .562 .572 .577 .590 .601 .607 .616 .601 .609 .604 .613 .620 .613 .616 .614 .616 .619 .616 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments 4 Unit nonlabor cost Total 0.269 .284 .279 .283 .285 .289 .292 .294 .294 .297 .291 .295 .292 .298 .298 .296 .296 .297 .296 .298 .296 Consumption of fixed capital Net interest Taxes on and production miscellaneous and imports 3 payments 0.141 .153 .148 .150 .153 .155 .159 .160 .160 .161 .159 .161 .160 .161 .162 .161 .161 .161 .161 .163 .162 0.087 .092 .094 .096 .096 .100 .100 .100 .097 .099 .095 .096 .096 .099 .099 .099 .099 .100 .099 .100 .099 0.040 .039 .037 .036 .036 .034 .034 .035 .037 .036 .036 .037 .037 .038 .037 .036 .036 .036 .036 .035 .034 Total 0.106 .097 .127 .134 .143 .148 .149 .143 .133 .130 .141 .133 .131 .128 .131 .133 .127 .130 .131 .137 .143 Taxes on corporate income 0.027 .022 .027 .027 .030 .032 .034 .032 .030 .027 .030 .031 .031 .030 .028 .028 .027 .024 .016 .018 .018 Profits after tax 5 0.079 .075 .100 .107 .112 .116 .115 .111 .103 .104 .111 .102 .100 .098 .103 .106 .100 .106 .116 .119 .125 1 Estimates for nonfinancial corporate business are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). 2 The implicit price deflator for gross value added of nonfinancial corporate business divided by 100. 3 Less subsidies plus business current transfer payments. 4 Unit profits from current production. 5 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 3 National Income [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Proprietors’ income 1 Period ComNational pensation of income employees 2009 �������������������� 12,027.2 2010 �������������������� 12,735.8 2011 �������������������� 13,357.7 2012 �������������������� 14,094.7 2013 �������������������� 14,494.7 2014 �������������������� 15,245.5 2015 �������������������� 15,783.0 2016 �������������������� 16,058.9 2017 �������������������� 16,756.1 2018 p ������������������ �������������� 2016: I ��������������� 15,887.7 II ��������������� 15,953.9 III �������������� 16,081.2 IV �������������� 16,312.9 2017: I ��������������� 16,525.2 II ��������������� 16,661.1 III �������������� 16,822.6 IV �������������� 17,015.3 2018: I ���������������� 17,266.2 II ��������������� 17,423.7 III r ������������ 17,673.9 IV p ����������� �������������� 7,758.5 7,924.9 8,225.9 8,566.7 8,834.2 9,248.1 9,696.8 9,956.2 10,407.2 10,855.7 9,839.5 9,890.2 9,986.1 10,109.3 10,249.2 10,339.9 10,471.2 10,568.6 10,710.1 10,782.9 10,907.9 11,022.1 Rental income of persons with capital conNonfarm sumption adjustment Farm 28.1 39.0 64.9 60.9 88.3 70.1 56.4 37.5 38.9 37.5 40.9 41.2 36.7 31.0 42.3 41.5 36.4 35.4 35.2 37.0 27.9 50.0 910.5 1,069.7 1,164.4 1,286.4 1,315.3 1,377.5 1,365.5 1,381.8 1,462.0 1,542.2 1,374.4 1,363.4 1,382.0 1,407.6 1,432.9 1,453.5 1,471.1 1,490.6 1,514.7 1,531.5 1,552.0 1,570.7 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Net interest and Capital miscelconsumption laneous Inventory adjust- payments valuation ment adjustment Taxes on production and imports Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total Total Profits before tax 327.3 1,386.8 1,470.1 1,467.5 2.6 394.2 1,728.7 1,786.4 1,834.0 –47.6 478.6 1,809.8 1,750.2 1,818.2 –68.0 518.0 1,997.4 2,144.7 2,156.1 –11.4 557.0 2,010.7 2,165.9 2,151.5 14.4 608.4 2,118.8 2,266.1 2,262.5 3.6 651.8 2,057.3 2,187.0 2,134.2 52.8 694.8 2,035.0 2,128.7 2,129.7 –1.0 730.2 2,099.3 2,136.4 2,181.9 –45.5 760.0 �������������� �������������� �������������� �������������� 685.2 1,995.2 2,101.2 2,037.8 63.4 694.0 2,017.7 2,114.4 2,146.8 –32.4 696.3 2,044.6 2,132.3 2,137.5 –5.2 703.8 2,082.4 2,166.8 2,196.7 –29.9 719.0 2,055.9 2,148.0 2,211.8 –63.8 724.4 2,089.5 2,187.3 2,200.4 –13.0 732.0 2,101.1 2,199.9 2,230.7 –30.8 745.3 2,150.7 2,010.3 2,084.6 –74.4 749.3 2,177.3 2,036.9 2,111.0 –74.1 754.2 2,242.3 2,107.3 2,197.2 –89.9 767.4 2,320.5 2,189.5 2,223.9 –34.4 769.0 �������������� �������������� �������������� �������������� –83.3 –57.7 59.6 –147.2 –155.2 –147.3 –129.8 –93.7 –37.1 133.4 –106.0 –96.7 –87.7 –84.5 –92.1 –97.9 –98.8 140.4 140.4 135.1 131.0 126.9 539.3 465.2 461.7 503.7 465.9 517.9 591.8 546.0 576.4 575.0 562.8 548.0 535.3 537.7 589.3 574.6 561.5 580.1 591.9 583.8 563.2 561.2 Business Less: current Subsidies transfer payments 1,026.8 1,063.1 1,103.7 1,136.1 1,188.7 1,240.9 1,269.9 1,303.7 1,347.2 1,428.5 1,288.9 1,294.6 1,310.8 1,320.7 1,326.1 1,338.9 1,353.7 1,370.0 1,397.9 1,413.4 1,435.2 1,467.4 58.3 55.8 60.0 58.0 59.7 58.1 57.3 61.8 61.3 66.3 60.8 62.4 63.1 60.9 59.6 58.4 63.0 64.2 60.5 59.2 60.0 85.3 124.4 126.8 128.1 98.8 110.3 132.9 156.7 168.1 161.2 160.1 163.8 170.1 154.8 183.6 173.0 160.7 164.0 147.0 161.2 150.8 172.6 155.9 Current surplus of government enterprises –16.1 –20.1 –19.4 –15.4 –15.9 –11.0 –5.8 –2.3 –4.9 –12.0 –2.0 –2.8 –2.3 –2.3 –2.8 –3.5 –5.4 –8.2 –10.8 –12.9 –13.0 –11.2 1 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). Real Personal Consumption Expenditures [Billions of chained (2012) dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Goods Period Total personal consumption expenditures 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2018 p ������������������ 2016: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2017: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2018: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV p ����������� 10,460.0 10,643.0 10,843.8 11,006.8 11,166.9 11,494.3 11,921.9 12,248.2 12,558.7 12,890.6 12,111.8 12,214.1 12,294.3 12,372.7 12,427.6 12,515.9 12,584.9 12,706.4 12,722.8 12,842.0 12,953.3 13,044.2 Services Durable Total goods 3,389.8 3,485.7 3,561.8 3,637.7 3,752.2 3,902.9 4,087.7 4,236.1 4,391.9 4,557.3 4,174.6 4,223.9 4,258.5 4,287.2 4,307.3 4,366.0 4,410.2 4,483.9 4,477.0 4,537.6 4,585.5 4,629.0 Total durable goods 1 973.0 1,027.3 1,079.7 1,144.2 1,214.1 1,301.0 1,399.4 1,476.8 1,577.9 1,667.4 1,434.9 1,457.9 1,494.3 1,520.2 1,527.2 1,559.2 1,588.6 1,636.6 1,628.2 1,662.3 1,677.4 1,701.6 Nondurable Motor vehicles and parts 346.7 360.0 370.1 396.6 415.3 439.8 471.4 486.5 507.2 518.3 470.9 477.0 493.2 504.9 494.3 498.0 508.4 528.3 510.7 518.6 516.2 527.7 Total nondurable goods 1 2,423.1 2,461.3 2,482.9 2,493.5 2,538.5 2,603.7 2,691.7 2,763.9 2,822.0 2,901.0 2,743.4 2,770.0 2,769.2 2,773.2 2,786.3 2,813.9 2,829.9 2,857.7 2,858.6 2,886.7 2,919.2 2,939.7 Food and beverages purchased for offpremises consumption Gasoline and other energy goods Total services 1 Household consumption expenditures 825.3 837.7 839.0 846.2 855.5 872.1 884.9 916.8 938.9 968.4 900.8 917.0 921.9 927.4 930.2 932.3 939.7 953.5 958.6 965.2 973.3 976.5 440.1 437.9 427.8 421.9 429.7 430.1 449.9 452.0 446.5 444.0 461.5 452.2 449.1 445.1 442.8 450.6 447.1 445.4 441.9 446.6 442.8 444.8 7,070.1 7,157.4 7,282.1 7,369.1 7,415.5 7,594.0 7,840.0 8,022.5 8,184.5 8,359.3 7,945.5 8,000.4 8,047.0 8,096.9 8,131.9 8,165.6 8,193.7 8,246.6 8,267.9 8,329.8 8,394.9 8,444.5 6,781.3 6,859.0 6,969.3 7,027.5 7,069.8 7,247.9 7,506.1 7,677.3 7,842.2 7,992.4 7,604.1 7,661.4 7,694.9 7,748.8 7,786.8 7,821.9 7,855.0 7,904.9 7,915.2 7,963.5 8,022.7 8,068.2 Housing and utilities 1,943.1 1,966.8 1,993.0 1,996.3 2,006.4 2,044.4 2,089.4 2,116.6 2,129.9 2,160.2 2,101.7 2,116.5 2,127.5 2,120.5 2,114.8 2,130.0 2,131.6 2,143.2 2,146.0 2,158.1 2,163.7 2,172.9 Health care 1,735.1 1,761.7 1,788.7 1,821.3 1,832.6 1,890.4 2,000.1 2,081.7 2,145.8 2,203.2 2,048.1 2,085.6 2,077.0 2,116.2 2,127.3 2,129.2 2,156.8 2,169.7 2,177.3 2,188.9 2,214.3 2,232.1 Financial services and insurance 809.5 810.5 831.4 820.1 815.2 819.2 841.9 827.4 848.4 856.3 830.1 822.7 828.8 827.9 842.7 844.7 851.0 855.1 852.7 852.2 855.3 864.9 Addendum: Personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy 2 Retail sales of new passenger cars and light trucks (millions of units) 8,988.1 9,151.3 9,363.2 9,531.1 9,667.6 9,974.9 10,371.8 10,661.9 10,950.3 11,241.8 10,545.5 10,626.4 10,695.2 10,780.4 10,842.6 10,909.5 10,975.1 11,073.9 11,091.8 11,193.5 11,299.7 11,382.2 10.4 11.6 12.7 14.4 15.5 16.5 17.4 17.5 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.3 17.6 17.6 17.1 16.8 17.1 17.6 17.1 17.2 16.9 17.5 1 Includes other items, not shown separately. 2 Food consists of food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption; food services, which include purchased meals and beverages, are not classified as food. Note: Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2012) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 4 Sources of Personal Income Personal income fell $23.7 billion (annual rate) in January, following an increase of $179.0 billion in December. Wages and salaries rose $25.3 billion in January, following an increase of $45.1 billion in December. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 20,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 20,000 18,000 18,000 16,000 16,000 14,000 14,000 TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME 12,000 12,000 10,000 10,000 WAGES AND SALARIES 9,000 9,000 8,000 8,000 7,000 7,000 6,000 6,000 OTHER INCOME 5,000 5,000 4,000 4,000 PERSONAL CURRENT TRANSFER RECEIPTS 3,000 3,000 2,000 2,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 2019 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Compensation of employees Period 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2018 p ������������������ 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� July r �������� Aug r ��������� Sept r �������� Oct r ���������� Nov r ��������� Dec p �������� 2019: Jan p ��������� Total personal income 12,059.1 12,551.6 13,326.8 14,010.1 14,181.1 14,991.8 15,719.5 16,125.1 16,830.9 17,581.4 17,257.7 17,315.7 17,384.1 17,414.5 17,461.1 17,524.5 17,593.5 17,670.0 17,708.3 17,792.9 17,837.6 18,016.6 17,992.9 Total 7,758.5 7,924.9 8,225.9 8,566.7 8,834.2 9,248.1 9,696.8 9,956.2 10,407.2 10,855.7 10,674.0 10,709.0 10,747.3 10,761.2 10,776.2 10,811.1 10,857.1 10,919.0 10,947.5 10,987.8 11,013.5 11,064.9 11,095.5 Wages and salaries Supplements to wages and salaries 6,248.6 6,372.1 6,625.9 6,927.5 7,113.2 7,473.2 7,854.4 8,080.7 8,453.8 8,834.7 8,679.5 8,709.5 8,742.8 8,753.4 8,764.7 8,794.4 8,834.8 8,889.7 8,913.1 8,948.5 8,970.6 9,015.7 9,041.0 1,509.9 1,552.9 1,600.0 1,639.2 1,721.0 1,774.8 1,842.4 1,875.6 1,953.4 2,021.0 1,994.5 1,999.4 2,004.5 2,007.9 2,011.5 2,016.7 2,022.3 2,029.3 2,034.4 2,039.3 2,042.9 2,049.2 2,054.4 Proprietors’ income 1 Farm 28.1 39.0 64.9 60.9 88.3 70.1 56.4 37.5 38.9 37.5 34.5 35.2 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.5 32.7 27.9 23.1 30.8 45.0 74.2 49.5 Nonfarm 910.5 1,069.7 1,164.4 1,286.4 1,315.3 1,377.5 1,365.5 1,381.8 1,462.0 1,542.2 1,504.1 1,516.1 1,523.9 1,523.1 1,531.8 1,539.5 1,548.9 1,558.2 1,549.0 1,565.2 1,574.5 1,572.5 1,571.2 Personal income receipts on assets Rental income of persons 2 327.3 394.2 478.6 518.0 557.0 608.4 651.8 694.8 730.2 760.0 745.7 748.6 753.6 752.4 753.7 756.6 761.0 766.9 774.2 771.1 768.4 767.4 772.4 Total 1,852.2 1,782.3 1,950.9 2,165.6 2,066.3 2,301.2 2,471.3 2,516.6 2,631.6 2,766.1 2,712.3 2,719.8 2,726.4 2,731.4 2,749.6 2,762.2 2,770.0 2,771.5 2,775.0 2,790.6 2,795.7 2,888.8 2,789.2 Personal interest income 1,299.3 1,238.5 1,269.4 1,330.5 1,273.0 1,347.8 1,438.1 1,440.9 1,523.0 1,614.4 1,601.1 1,597.6 1,594.2 1,600.4 1,606.5 1,612.7 1,614.5 1,616.2 1,617.9 1,627.6 1,637.2 1,646.9 1,625.0 Personal dividend income 553.0 543.9 681.5 835.1 793.3 953.4 1,033.3 1,075.7 1,108.6 1,151.7 1,111.2 1,122.2 1,132.3 1,131.1 1,143.1 1,149.5 1,155.5 1,155.3 1,157.0 1,163.0 1,158.4 1,241.9 1,164.2 Personal current transfer receipts 3 2,146.7 2,325.2 2,358.7 2,363.0 2,424.3 2,540.3 2,683.0 2,778.1 2,859.7 2,980.9 2,926.2 2,930.4 2,945.2 2,959.7 2,964.4 2,973.3 2,985.1 2,995.3 3,011.3 3,024.4 3,020.7 3,035.1 3,113.0 Chart Less: 5 - Jan/Feb 2019 Contributions for government social insurance, domestic 964.3 983.7 916.7 950.5 1,104.3 1,153.8 1,205.3 1,239.9 1,298.6 1,361.1 1,339.1 1,343.4 1,348.2 1,349.9 1,351.6 1,355.7 1,361.4 1,368.8 1,371.9 1,376.9 1,380.2 1,386.3 1,397.9 1 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 2 With capital consumption adjustment. 3 Consists mainly of social insurance benefits to persons. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 5 Disposition of Personal Income According to initial estimates, per capita disposable personal income in chained (2012) dollars rose 3.5 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 16,000 15,500 15,000 14,500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 16,000 15,500 15,000 14,500 14,000 14,000 13,500 13,500 DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 13,000 13,000 12,500 12,500 SAVING 12,000 12,000 11,500 11,500 11,000 11,000 PERSONAL OUTLAYS 10,500 10,500 10,000 10,000 DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 48,000 DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 48,000 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 46,000 46,000 44,000 44,000 42,000 42,000 CURRENT DOLLARS 40,000 40,000 38,000 38,000 CHAINED (2012) DOLLARS 36,000 36,000 34,000 34,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Personal income Less: Personal current taxes Equals: Disposable personal income 12,059.1 12,551.6 13,326.8 14,010.1 14,181.1 14,991.8 15,719.5 16,125.1 16,830.9 17,581.4 1,152.0 1,237.3 1,453.2 1,508.9 1,675.8 1,785.4 1,935.2 1,954.3 2,034.6 2,050.4 10,907.1 11,314.3 11,873.6 12,501.2 12,505.3 13,206.4 13,784.3 14,170.9 14,796.3 15,531.0 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Less: Personal outlays 1 Equals: Personal saving Disposable personal income in billions of chained (2012) dollars Per capita disposable personal income Current dollars Billions of dollars 2009 �������������������� 2010 r ������������������ 2011 r ������������������ 2012 r ������������������ 2013 r ������������������ 2014 r ������������������ 2015 r ������������������ 2016 r ������������������ 2017 r ������������������ 2018 p ������������������ 2017 Chained (2012) dollars Per capita personal consumption expenditures Current dollars Chained (2012) dollars Dollars 10,240.6 10,573.5 11,023.7 11,393.6 11,703.9 12,236.1 12,740.1 13,222.7 13,809.5 14,487.6 666.5 740.9 849.8 1,107.6 801.4 970.3 1,044.2 948.2 986.8 1,043.4 11,591.7 11,822.1 12,099.8 12,501.2 12,339.1 12,838.1 13,366.5 13,595.2 13,949.2 14,349.9 35,500 36,524 38,052 39,780 39,521 41,436 42,938 43,830 45,470 47,432 Chart 6 - Jan/Feb 2019 Percent Saving change as in real percent per capita of disposable disposable personal personal income income Population, including Armed Forces overseas (thousands) 2 Percent 37,728 38,163 38,777 39,780 38,996 40,281 41,637 42,049 42,866 43,825 32,034 32,881 34,102 35,025 35,766 37,099 38,298 39,487 40,937 42,609 34,045 34,357 34,752 35,025 35,291 36,064 37,137 37,883 38,593 39,368 –1.0 1.2 1.6 2.6 –2.0 3.3 3.4 1.0 1.9 2.2 6.1 6.5 7.2 8.9 6.4 7.3 7.6 6.7 6.7 6.7 307,240 309,780 312,033 314,255 316,421 318,717 321,026 323,317 325,410 327,436 42,057 41,924 42,005 42,214 42,616 42,785 42,946 43,118 43,530 43,657 43,866 44,247 38,845 39,339 39,694 40,068 40,395 40,704 41,021 41,626 41,876 42,415 42,876 43,263 37,559 37,815 37,992 38,165 38,280 38,498 38,643 38,951 38,947 39,256 39,528 39,740 2.1 –1.3 .8 2.0 3.9 1.6 1.5 1.6 3.9 1.2 1.9 3.5 7.5 6.6 6.3 6.4 7.0 6.7 6.7 6.3 7.2 6.7 6.4 6.7 322,476 322,998 323,606 324,187 324,648 325,107 325,667 326,218 326,670 327,138 327,697 328,237 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 2016: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2017: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2018: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV p ����������� 15,946.5 16,031.6 16,170.6 16,351.8 16,604.4 16,721.2 16,895.1 17,103.1 17,319.2 17,466.7 17,657.3 17,882.4 1,919.9 1,944.2 1,968.7 1,984.3 2,004.9 2,014.2 2,048.5 2,070.9 2,030.0 2,035.3 2,064.9 2,071.3 14,026.7 14,087.4 14,202.0 14,367.5 14,599.6 14,707.0 14,846.6 15,032.2 15,289.2 15,431.4 15,592.4 15,811.1 12,979.1 13,155.8 13,302.2 13,453.6 13,584.7 13,716.7 13,853.3 14,083.3 14,194.8 14,403.8 14,596.3 14,755.6 1,047.6 931.6 899.7 913.9 1,014.9 990.2 993.4 948.9 1,094.3 1,027.7 996.0 1,055.5 13,562.3 13,541.5 13,592.9 13,685.4 13,835.3 13,909.8 13,986.2 14,065.9 14,219.8 14,282.0 14,374.8 14,523.6 43,497 43,614 43,887 44,318 44,970 45,237 45,588 46,080 46,803 47,171 47,582 48,170 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, personal interest payments (nonmortgage), and personal current transfer payments. 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). 6 Real Farm Income According to the current forecast for 2018, gross farm income in chained (2018) dollars is forecast to be $435.4 billion and net farm income to be $66.3 billion. BILLIONS OF CHAINED (2018) DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF CHAINED (2018) DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 560 520 480 440 560 520 480 440 GROSS FARM INCOME 400 400 360 360 320 320 280 280 240 240 200 200 160 160 NET FARM INCOME 120 120 80 80 60 60 40 40 2009 2010 2012 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 2017 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of chained (2018) dollars] Chart 7 - Nov 2018 Income of farm operators from farming 1 Gross farm income Year Value of agricultural sector production Total 1999 ��������������������������������������������������� 2000 ��������������������������������������������������� 2001 ��������������������������������������������������� 2002 ��������������������������������������������������� 2003 ��������������������������������������������������� 2004 ��������������������������������������������������� 2005 ��������������������������������������������������� 2006 ��������������������������������������������������� 2007 ��������������������������������������������������� 2008 ��������������������������������������������������� 2009 ��������������������������������������������������� 2010 ��������������������������������������������������� 2011 ��������������������������������������������������� 2012 ��������������������������������������������������� 2013 ��������������������������������������������������� 2014 ��������������������������������������������������� 2015 ��������������������������������������������������� 2016 ��������������������������������������������������� 2017 ��������������������������������������������������� 2018 p ������������������������������������������������� Crops 2, 3 Total 339.9 341.9 345.8 314.3 346.1 384.2 377.2 355.8 405.5 427.1 391.4 409.7 473.3 496.8 525.1 514.6 464.4 429.5 439.7 435.4 308.8 309.1 314.7 297.3 324.0 367.3 346.4 336.5 391.3 412.8 377.2 395.5 461.6 485.1 513.1 504.2 453.0 415.9 427.9 421.8 134.2 134.3 131.5 133.4 145.3 163.0 144.5 145.6 180.4 203.6 191.4 193.2 224.4 235.2 253.6 219.5 194.0 196.7 194.2 191.2 Animals and animal products 3 137.7 140.2 147.2 127.4 140.5 161.9 159.9 146.3 165.3 163.3 139.1 161.2 184.3 186.8 196.4 228.4 204.7 172.7 181.5 176.8 Farm-related income 4 36.8 34.5 36.1 36.5 38.3 42.3 42.0 44.6 45.5 45.8 46.7 41.1 52.8 63.1 63.1 56.3 54.3 46.5 52.2 53.8 Direct Federal Government payments 31.1 32.9 31.0 16.9 22.1 16.9 30.8 19.4 14.2 14.3 14.2 14.2 11.7 11.7 11.9 10.4 11.4 13.5 11.8 13.6 Production expenses Net farm income 270.9 270.2 269.8 260.9 264.5 270.3 277.7 285.4 321.9 335.7 319.0 321.1 345.4 390.3 390.8 416.2 379.0 365.3 362.5 369.1 69.0 71.7 75.9 53.4 81.6 113.9 99.5 70.4 83.6 91.4 72.3 88.6 127.9 106.5 134.3 98.5 85.5 64.2 77.1 66.3 1 The GDP chain-type price index is used to convert the current-dollar statistics to 2018=100 equivalents. 2 Crop receipts include proceeds received from commodities placed under Commodity Credit Corporation loans. 3 The value of production equates to the sum of cash receipts, home consumption, and the value of the change in inventories. 4 Includes income from forest products sold, the gross imputed rental value of farm dwellings, machine hire and custom work, and other sources of farm income such as commodity insurance indemnities. Source: Department of Agriculture (Economic Research Service). 7 Corporate Profits In the third quarter of 2018, according to current estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $26.7 billion (annual rate) and profits after tax rose $17.9 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2,600 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2,600 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 2,400 2,400 PROFITS BEFORE TAX 2,200 2,200 2,000 2,000 1,800 1,800 PROFITS AFTER TAX 1,600 1,600 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 UNDISTRIBUTED PROFITS 800 800 600 600 400 400 TAXES ON CORPORATE INCOME 200 200 0 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment 1 Profits after tax Domestic industries Period Total 2 Profits before tax Nonfinancial Total Financial Total 3 Manufacturing Utilities Wholesale Taxes on corporate income Total Retail 2009 �������������������� 1,470.1 1,121.3 362.7 758.7 164.7 23.4 88.9 107.9 1,467.5 204.2 1,263.3 2010 �������������������� 1,786.4 1,400.6 405.8 994.8 281.8 30.6 99.3 115.9 1,834.0 272.5 1,561.5 2011 �������������������� 1,750.2 1,337.7 378.4 959.3 296.0 10.2 97.2 115.1 1,818.2 281.1 1,537.2 2012 �������������������� 2,144.7 1,739.3 482.4 1,256.9 403.0 13.8 137.9 155.7 2,156.1 334.9 1,821.2 2013 �������������������� 2,165.9 1,767.1 430.7 1,336.3 446.9 28.3 146.4 153.3 2,151.5 362.8 1,788.7 2014 �������������������� 2,266.1 1,861.2 483.1 1,378.1 457.4 32.7 150.8 158.6 2,262.5 407.4 1,855.2 2015 �������������������� 2,187.0 1,784.5 437.6 1,346.9 422.5 20.1 152.1 169.2 2,134.2 397.2 1,737.0 2016 �������������������� 2,128.7 1,722.2 468.9 1,253.3 322.9 7.2 127.5 173.5 2,129.7 392.9 1,736.9 2017 �������������������� 2,136.4 1,687.5 468.7 1,218.9 292.9 3.8 111.8 162.5 2,181.9 350.7 1,831.2 p 2018 ������������������ ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� 2016: I ���������������� 2,101.2 1,711.7 377.4 1,334.2 395.5 12.6 151.8 169.6 2,037.8 384.4 1,653.4 II ��������������� 2,114.4 1,714.1 472.1 1,241.9 311.1 10.5 120.6 164.9 2,146.8 385.5 1,761.2 III �������������� 2,132.3 1,741.9 505.5 1,236.4 298.2 1.2 136.8 179.5 2,137.5 413.0 1,724.6 IV �������������� 2,166.8 1,721.0 520.4 1,200.6 286.6 4.4 100.7 179.9 2,196.7 388.5 1,808.2 2017: I ���������������� 2,148.0 1,714.8 463.3 1,251.5 279.2 5.9 117.4 171.4 2,211.8 348.0 1,863.8 II ��������������� 2,187.3 1,768.0 468.7 1,299.3 306.9 5.3 128.9 170.7 2,200.4 355.8 1,844.6 III �������������� 2,199.9 1,740.0 489.0 1,251.0 320.8 2.7 114.7 168.7 2,230.7 365.2 1,865.5 IV �������������� 2,010.3 1,527.3 453.7 1,073.6 264.5 1.4 86.3 139.2 2,084.6 333.8 1,750.8 2018: I ���������������� 2,036.9 1,550.2 444.5 1,105.8 238.5 -1.1 88.6 155.4 2,111.0 212.0 1,899.0 II ��������������� 2,107.3 1,625.2 461.6 1,163.6 267.7 -0.7 83.3 141.1 2,197.2 234.8 1,962.3 III �������������� 2,189.5 1,706.2 456.3 1,249.9 302.9 -2.2 117.1 164.8 2,223.9 243.7 1,980.2 IV p ����������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� 1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 2 Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. 3 Includes industries not shown separately. Note: Data by industry are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 8 Net dividends Chart 8 - Dec 2018 Inventory Undistrib- valuation adjustment uted profits 622.1 641.3 2.6 643.2 918.3 -47.6 779.1 758.1 -68.0 948.7 872.6 -11.4 1,009.0 779.7 14.4 1,096.1 759.1 3.6 1,164.9 572.1 52.8 1,187.4 549.4 -1.0 1,215.3 615.9 -45.5 1,241.7 ��������������� ����������������� 1,180.2 473.2 63.4 1,180.9 580.3 -32.4 1,196.3 528.3 -5.2 1,192.4 615.8 -29.9 1,217.7 646.1 -63.8 1,233.3 611.3 -13.0 1,215.5 650.0 -30.8 1,194.8 556.0 -74.4 1,213.2 685.7 -74.1 1,223.0 739.3 -89.9 1,250.6 729.6 -34.4 1,279.8 ��������������� ����������������� Real Gross Private Domestic Investment In the fourth quarter of 2018, according to initial estimates, nonresidential fixed investment in chained (2012) dollars rose $41.0 billion (annual rate) and residential fixed investment fell $5.4 billion. Inventories rose $97.1 billion, following an increase of $89.8 billion in the third quarter. BILLIONS OF CHAINED (2012) DOLLARS 3,600 BILLIONS OF CHAINED (2012) DOLLARS 3,600 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 3,400 3,400 3,200 3,200 3,000 3,000 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 2,800 2,800 2,600 2,600 2,400 2,400 2,200 2,200 NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT 2,000 2,000 1,800 1,800 1,600 1,600 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT 800 600 800 600 400 400 200 200 0 0 CHANGE IN PRIVATE INVENTORIES –200 –200 –400 –400 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of chained (2012) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Chart 9 - Jan/Feb 2019 Fixed investment Period 2009 ��������������������������������������������������� 2010 ��������������������������������������������������� 2011 ��������������������������������������������������� 2012 ��������������������������������������������������� 2013 ��������������������������������������������������� 2014 ��������������������������������������������������� 2015 ��������������������������������������������������� 2016 ��������������������������������������������������� 2017 ��������������������������������������������������� 2018 p ������������������������������������������������� 2016: I ����������������������������������������������� II ���������������������������������������������� III ��������������������������������������������� IV ��������������������������������������������� 2017: I ����������������������������������������������� II ���������������������������������������������� III ��������������������������������������������� IV ��������������������������������������������� 2018: I ����������������������������������������������� II ���������������������������������������������� III ��������������������������������������������� IV p ������������������������������������������ Gross private domestic investment 1,942.0 2,216.5 2,362.1 2,621.8 2,801.5 2,951.6 3,092.2 3,050.5 3,196.6 3,387.2 3,042.9 3,035.2 3,032.2 3,091.7 3,128.6 3,172.1 3,239.8 3,246.0 3,321.0 3,316.7 3,436.2 3,474.7 Change in private inventories Nonresidential Total 2,099.8 2,164.2 2,317.8 2,550.5 2,692.1 2,861.5 2,958.5 3,009.8 3,155.1 3,322.4 2,979.7 3,000.0 3,023.5 3,036.1 3,108.6 3,141.3 3,161.2 3,209.3 3,271.3 3,322.3 3,331.8 3,364.2 Total 1,704.3 1,781.0 1,935.4 2,118.5 2,206.0 2,357.4 2,399.7 2,411.2 2,538.1 2,714.8 2,380.9 2,403.3 2,430.3 2,430.4 2,486.5 2,530.8 2,552.3 2,582.7 2,654.0 2,710.1 2,727.0 2,768.0 Structures 492.2 412.8 424.1 479.4 485.5 536.9 520.9 494.7 517.5 543.3 484.8 488.8 503.5 501.9 517.3 522.2 514.5 516.2 533.3 551.7 546.9 541.1 Equipment 649.7 781.2 886.2 983.4 1,029.2 1,098.7 1,132.6 1,116.2 1,183.7 1,271.9 1,115.1 1,115.5 1,115.8 1,118.2 1,142.8 1,169.5 1,197.1 1,225.6 1,250.9 1,264.9 1,275.6 1,296.4 Intellectual property products 572.4 588.1 624.8 655.7 691.4 721.1 747.8 803.9 841.1 905.6 785.0 803.2 814.0 813.3 829.0 842.3 845.9 847.3 875.7 897.9 910.2 938.6 Residential 395.3 383.0 382.5 432.0 485.5 504.2 555.3 591.3 611.1 609.6 590.9 589.4 586.9 597.9 613.8 605.2 604.5 620.7 615.3 613.2 607.7 602.3 Total Nonfarm –177.3 57.3 46.7 71.2 108.7 86.6 129.0 23.4 22.5 45.1 50.7 17.8 –14.1 39.1 –2.4 11.9 64.4 16.1 30.3 –36.8 89.8 97.1 –165.2 70.2 48.4 89.9 98.2 90.3 127.8 28.4 27.4 50.9 59.8 20.2 –11.6 45.2 3.8 16.9 67.8 21.1 35.9 –31.0 95.4 103.3 Note: See p. 10 for further detail on fixed investment by type. Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2012) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 9 Real Private Fixed Investment by Type [Billions of chained (2012) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nonresidential Equipment Total fixed investment Period 2009 ������������ 2010 ������������ 2011 ������������ 2012 ������������ 2013 ������������ 2014 ������������ 2015 ������������ 2016 ������������ 2017 ������������ 2018 p ���������� 2016: I �������� II ������� III ������ IV ������ 2017: I �������� II ������� III ������ IV ������ 2018: I �������� II ������� III ������ IV p ��� Residential Total nonresidential 2,099.8 2,164.2 2,317.8 2,550.5 2,692.1 2,861.5 2,958.5 3,009.8 3,155.1 3,322.4 2,979.7 3,000.0 3,023.5 3,036.1 3,108.6 3,141.3 3,161.2 3,209.3 3,271.3 3,322.3 3,331.8 3,364.2 Intellectual property products Information processing equipment Structures 1,704.3 1,781.0 1,935.4 2,118.5 2,206.0 2,357.4 2,399.7 2,411.2 2,538.1 2,714.8 2,380.9 2,403.3 2,430.3 2,430.4 2,486.5 2,530.8 2,552.3 2,582.7 2,654.0 2,710.1 2,727.0 2,768.0 Total 2 492.2 412.8 424.1 479.4 485.5 536.9 520.9 494.7 517.5 543.3 484.8 488.8 503.5 501.9 517.3 522.2 514.5 516.2 533.3 551.7 546.9 541.1 Computers and peripheral equipment 1 Total 649.7 781.2 886.2 983.4 1,029.2 1,098.7 1,132.6 1,116.2 1,183.7 1,271.9 1,115.1 1,115.5 1,115.8 1,118.2 1,142.8 1,169.5 1,197.1 1,225.6 1,250.9 1,264.9 1,275.6 1,296.4 247.5 289.1 303.2 331.2 351.8 368.6 393.5 410.9 459.8 503.6 399.6 405.9 415.1 423.0 439.7 455.2 466.8 477.5 490.5 502.9 511.8 509.2 81.1 94.1 93.9 103.5 103.0 102.6 103.5 103.0 113.8 122.8 399.6 405.9 415.1 423.0 439.7 455.2 466.8 477.5 490.5 502.9 511.8 509.2 Other 166.5 195.1 209.3 227.7 248.8 266.4 291.0 309.7 348.4 383.8 298.8 304.3 315.6 320.3 334.5 342.2 349.7 367.1 371.7 379.3 389.7 394.5 Industrial Transportation equipequipment ment 162.7 162.5 194.9 211.2 208.4 216.6 217.0 214.4 228.6 240.9 211.8 213.9 214.6 217.5 220.6 227.7 231.6 234.6 238.5 236.6 242.0 246.8 Total 2 72.5 141.5 181.8 215.3 238.5 264.4 291.4 274.3 264.2 282.6 284.0 279.8 270.5 262.9 262.0 259.0 264.7 270.9 280.3 281.3 278.8 289.9 Structures Software Research and development 3 212.9 220.9 245.2 272.1 287.2 305.3 319.9 345.9 379.3 419.4 334.4 343.0 349.8 356.2 366.2 377.7 387.9 385.3 402.1 414.2 423.3 437.9 297.4 298.5 311.0 313.4 333.8 345.3 352.8 382.0 386.8 411.1 374.6 384.8 387.7 380.7 386.7 389.5 384.0 386.8 398.8 408.6 411.8 425.0 572.4 588.1 624.8 655.7 691.4 721.1 747.8 803.9 841.1 905.6 785.0 803.2 814.0 813.3 829.0 842.3 845.9 847.3 875.7 897.9 910.2 938.6 Total residential 2 395.3 383.0 382.5 432.0 485.5 504.2 555.3 591.3 611.1 609.6 590.9 589.4 586.9 597.9 613.8 605.2 604.5 620.7 615.3 613.2 607.7 602.3 Total 2 Single family 386.9 373.8 372.4 421.5 474.1 491.8 541.9 576.8 595.7 594.3 576.7 575.1 572.4 583.2 598.7 590.0 589.2 605.0 599.7 597.8 592.4 587.2 105.3 114.3 109.1 132.0 161.8 171.9 191.5 201.1 214.8 217.6 204.7 202.1 195.7 202.1 208.5 213.1 216.6 220.9 223.1 220.6 217.5 209.3 1 Because computers exhibit rapid changes in prices relative to other prices in the economy, the chained-dollar estimates should not be used to measure the component’s relative importance or its contribution to the growth rate of more aggregate series. The quantity index for computers can be used to accurately measure the real growth rate of this series. For information on this component, see Survey of Current Business Table 5.3.1 (for growth rates), Table 5.3.2 (for contributions), and Table 5.3.3 (for quantity indexes). 2 Includes other items, not shown separately. 3 Research and development investment includes expenditures for software. Note: Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2012) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). Business Investment [Billions of dollars] Capital expenditures By industry Period Total capital expenditures Forestry, Total fishing, by and agri- Mining industry cultural services ConManu- WholeUtilities struction sale facturing trade Retail trade TransportaFinance tion Informaand and tion insurwareance housing ProfesReal sional, estate scienand tific, rental and and technical leasing services Health care and social assistance Other 1 For companies without employees For companies with employees 2002 �������� 2003 �������� 2004 �������� 2005 �������� 2006 �������� 2007 �������� 2008 �������� 2009 �������� 2010 �������� 2011 �������� 2012 �������� 2013 �������� 2014 �������� 2015 �������� 2016 p ������� 997.9 975.0 1,042.1 1,144.8 1,309.9 1,354.7 1,374.2 1,090.7 1,105.7 1,243.0 1,423.6 1,491.3 1,597.9 1,642.0 1,575.7 917.5 886.8 953.2 1,062.5 1,217.1 1,270.5 1,294.5 1,015.3 1,036.2 1,169.6 1,334.4 1,400.9 1,506.6 1,548.1 1,480.3 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.7 2.7 2.1 2.3 2.2 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.0 4.0 3.3 4.6 42.5 50.5 51.3 66.7 99.3 120.7 149.3 100.6 115.7 165.7 196.7 202.2 230.8 174.1 92.7 65.5 54.6 50.4 58.0 69.8 85.4 98.7 103.0 94.5 98.0 125.0 111.3 118.9 130.5 133.8 24.8 23.2 28.6 30.1 30.3 36.7 40.8 19.8 17.9 21.8 23.6 27.6 30.3 33.3 36.0 157.2 149.1 156.7 165.6 192.4 197.3 213.1 155.2 160.8 192.4 203.1 221.3 231.1 245.1 243.6 26.8 26.0 32.3 40.6 36.6 30.8 32.4 25.3 31.1 35.7 40.9 37.5 44.8 42.4 43.9 59.3 65.9 72.2 73.5 86.7 82.5 73.2 58.4 65.3 68.1 77.6 77.5 82.4 86.0 87.0 47.1 44.5 46.1 56.9 68.0 67.4 79.6 55.7 59.0 72.7 81.8 92.6 111.0 116.6 109.7 88.2 80.5 83.5 91.4 104.4 106.1 103.3 88.4 97.2 100.1 106.5 123.9 132.0 132.7 142.2 128.4 120.8 153.6 161.4 163.1 173.4 132.9 99.5 103.1 109.2 130.2 137.8 153.3 164.6 167.1 94.5 88.0 91.6 103.0 132.1 117.5 106.9 72.9 81.3 91.1 115.7 114.2 121.9 151.9 145.3 25.9 24.7 26.7 33.1 30.3 31.8 33.0 28.2 28.2 28.1 31.6 35.7 30.4 33.3 32.4 59.3 61.2 64.6 73.8 75.3 84.2 90.2 79.4 78.4 83.1 88.9 94.2 89.0 93.8 93.6 96.1 96.2 93.6 105.6 126.3 134.8 138.7 127.0 100.6 100.4 110.0 122.1 126.8 140.6 148.6 80.4 88.2 88.9 82.2 92.8 84.2 79.7 75.4 69.5 73.4 89.2 90.4 91.3 93.9 95.4 1 Includes the following industries: Management of companies and enterprises; administrative and support and waste management; educational services; arts, entertainment, and recreation; accommodation and food services; and other services (except public administration). Also includes an item for structure and equipment expenditures serving multiple industry categories. Note: Data from Annual Capital Expenditures. Industry data are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Data shown in this table are capital expenditures for both new and used structures and equipment. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census). 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force In February, unemployment as measured by the household survey fell 300,000 to 6.2 million. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 166 166 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 162 162 158 158 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE 154 154 150 150 CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT 146 146 142 142 138 138 134 134 20 20 16 16 UNEMPLOYMENT 12 12 8 8 4 4 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 *16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 2019 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Period 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2018 �������������������� 2018: Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2019: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Civilian noninsti- Civilian labor tutional force population (NSA) 235,801 237,830 239,618 243,284 245,679 247,947 250,801 253,538 255,079 257,791 256,934 257,097 257,272 257,454 257,642 257,843 258,066 258,290 258,514 258,708 258,888 258,239 258,392 154,142 153,889 153,617 154,975 155,389 155,922 157,130 159,187 160,320 162,075 161,900 161,646 161,551 161,667 162,129 162,209 161,802 162,055 162,694 162,821 163,240 163,229 163,184 Civilian employment Total 139,877 139,064 139,869 142,469 143,929 146,305 148,834 151,436 153,337 155,761 155,213 155,160 155,216 155,539 155,592 155,964 155,604 156,069 156,582 156,803 156,945 156,694 156,949 Men 20 years and over 71,341 71,230 72,182 73,403 74,176 75,471 76,776 78,084 78,919 80,211 80,186 80,091 80,108 80,299 80,006 80,217 80,149 80,251 80,388 80,633 80,501 80,472 80,712 Women 20 years and over 63,699 63,456 63,360 64,640 65,295 66,287 67,323 68,387 69,344 70,424 69,849 69,946 70,033 70,161 70,455 70,622 70,563 70,710 70,935 70,949 71,218 71,049 71,221 Percent 1 Chart 11 - Jan/Feb 2019 Unemployment Both sexes 16–19 years 4,837 4,378 4,327 4,426 4,458 4,548 4,734 4,965 5,074 5,126 5,178 5,123 5,074 5,079 5,131 5,125 4,892 5,108 5,258 5,221 5,226 5,172 5,017 Total 14,265 14,825 13,747 12,506 11,460 9,617 8,296 7,751 6,982 6,314 6,687 6,486 6,335 6,128 6,537 6,245 6,197 5,986 6,112 6,018 6,294 6,535 6,235 Men 20 years and over 7,555 7,763 6,898 5,984 5,568 4,585 3,959 3,675 3,287 2,976 3,072 3,059 3,055 2,958 3,097 2,801 2,895 2,853 2,889 2,775 2,999 3,126 2,920 Women 20 years and over Both sexes 16–19 years 5,157 5,534 5,450 5,125 4,565 3,926 3,371 3,151 2,868 2,578 2,746 2,634 2,525 2,429 2,701 2,673 2,590 2,398 2,507 2,529 2,550 2,642 2,540 1,552 1,528 1,400 1,397 1,327 1,106 966 925 827 759 870 793 755 741 740 771 712 735 715 714 745 767 776 Not in labor force 81,659 83,941 86,001 88,310 90,290 92,025 93,671 94,351 94,759 95,716 95,033 95,451 95,721 95,787 95,513 95,633 96,264 96,235 95,821 95,886 95,649 95,010 95,208 Labor Employ- Unemployforce ment/ participa- population ment tion rate ratio rate 65.4 64.7 64.1 63.7 63.2 62.9 62.7 62.8 62.9 62.9 63.0 62.9 62.8 62.8 62.9 62.9 62.7 62.7 62.9 62.9 63.1 63.2 63.2 59.3 58.5 58.4 58.6 58.6 59.0 59.3 59.7 60.1 60.4 60.4 60.4 60.3 60.4 60.4 60.5 60.3 60.4 60.6 60.6 60.6 60.7 60.7 9.3 9.6 8.9 8.1 7.4 6.2 5.3 4.9 4.4 3.9 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.9 4.0 3.8 1 Civilian labor force (or employment) as percent of civilian noninstitutional population; and unemployment as percent of civilian labor force. Note: Beginning each January, data reflect revised population controls and are not strictly comparable with earlier data. See Employment and Earnings for details on breaks in series. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 11 Selected Unemployment Rates In February, the unemployment rate fell to 3.8 percent. PERCENT (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 30 30 25 25 20 20 TEENAGERS (16-19) 15 15 BLACK OR AFRICAN AMERICAN1 10 10 HISPANIC1,2 MEN 20 YEARS AND OVER 5 5 ALL CIVILIAN WORKERS WOMEN 20 YEARS AND OVER ASIAN1 WHITE1 0 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1 SEE FOOTNOTE 1 TABLE BELOW. HISPANIC OR LATINO ETHNICITY. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 2 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) Chart 12 - Jan/Feb 2019 By race or ethnicity 1 By sex and age Period 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2018 �������������������� 2018: Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2019: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� All civilian workers 9.3 9.6 8.9 8.1 7.4 6.2 5.3 4.9 4.4 3.9 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.9 4.0 3.8 Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over 9.6 9.8 8.7 7.5 7.0 5.7 4.9 4.5 4.0 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.5 7.5 8.0 7.9 7.3 6.5 5.6 4.8 4.4 4.0 3.5 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.4 Both sexes 16–19 years 24.3 25.9 24.4 24.0 22.9 19.6 16.9 15.7 14.0 12.9 14.4 13.4 13.0 12.7 12.6 13.1 12.7 12.6 12.0 12.0 12.5 12.9 13.4 White 8.5 8.7 7.9 7.2 6.5 5.3 4.6 4.3 3.8 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.3 Black or African American 14.8 16.0 15.8 13.8 13.1 11.3 9.6 8.4 7.5 6.5 6.8 6.8 6.5 5.9 6.5 6.6 6.3 6.0 6.2 6.0 6.6 6.8 7.0 By selected groups Hispanic or Latino ethnicity Asian 7.3 7.5 7.0 5.9 5.2 5.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.8 2.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.5 3.1 2.7 3.3 3.1 3.1 1 Persons who selected this race group only. Persons whose ethnicity is identified as Hispanic or Latino may be of any race. Note: Data relate to persons age 16 years and over. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 12 12.1 12.5 11.5 10.3 9.1 7.4 6.6 5.8 5.1 4.7 4.9 5.1 4.8 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.9 4.3 Married men, spouse present 6.6 6.8 5.8 4.9 4.3 3.4 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 1.9 Women who maintain families (NSA) 11.5 12.3 12.4 11.4 10.2 8.6 7.4 6.8 6.2 5.4 6.2 5.6 5.5 4.7 5.5 5.6 5.4 5.1 5.3 5.4 4.5 5.4 4.9 Full-time workers 10.0 10.4 9.6 8.5 7.7 6.4 5.4 4.9 4.3 3.8 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.7 4.0 3.8 Part-time workers 6.0 6.3 6.3 6.1 5.9 5.4 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.8 4.2 4.1 Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs In February, the percentages of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 5 to 14 weeks fell, while the percentages for 15 to 26 weeks, and for 27 weeks and over rose. The mean duration of unemployment rose to 21.7 weeks and the median duration rose to 9.3 weeks. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 70 DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT 60 60 50 50 40 40 REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT JOB LOSERS LESS THAN 5 WEEKS REENTRANTS 30 30 5-14 WEEKS 27 WEEKS AND OVER 20 20 JOB LEAVERS 15-26 WEEKS 10 10 NEW ENTRANTS 0 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 2018 2019 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Chart 13 - Jan/Feb 2019 Duration of unemployment Period Unemployment (thousands) Percent distribution Less than 5 weeks 5–14 weeks 15–26 weeks Reason for unemployment: percent distribution Number of weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) 1 Median Job losers Job leavers Reentrants New entrants State programs Insured unemployment (NSA) Initial claims (NSA) Insured unemployment, all programs (NSA) 2 Weekly average, thousands 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2018 �������������������� 2018: Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2019: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� 14,265 14,825 13,747 12,506 11,460 9,617 8,296 7,751 6,982 6,314 6,687 6,486 6,335 6,128 6,537 6,245 6,197 5,986 6,112 6,018 6,294 6,535 6,235 22.2 18.7 19.5 21.1 22.5 25.7 28.9 30.5 32.5 34.4 36.7 35.0 33.0 33.2 34.6 33.3 35.7 34.1 33.6 34.9 33.4 35.8 35.3 26.8 22.0 21.8 22.9 24.1 25.3 27.7 28.7 28.8 29.7 28.4 30.5 30.7 31.3 29.1 28.9 27.9 28.9 30.1 30.2 31.9 31.0 29.1 19.5 16.0 15.0 14.9 15.8 15.6 15.3 14.9 14.6 14.5 13.9 13.9 15.9 15.9 13.4 15.2 15.0 14.2 14.0 14.2 14.1 13.9 15.2 31.5 43.3 43.8 41.1 37.6 33.5 28.1 25.9 24.2 21.4 21.0 20.6 20.4 19.7 22.9 22.6 21.4 22.8 22.3 20.7 20.5 19.3 20.4 24.4 33.0 39.3 39.4 36.5 33.7 29.2 27.5 25.0 22.7 22.9 24.2 23.0 21.3 21.2 23.1 22.6 24.1 22.4 21.7 21.8 20.5 21.7 15.1 21.4 21.4 19.3 17.0 14.0 11.6 10.6 10.0 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.8 9.3 9.0 9.6 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.0 9.1 8.9 9.3 64.2 62.4 59.0 55.0 53.0 50.7 49.0 48.2 49.2 47.4 48.4 47.4 46.4 46.8 46.9 48.1 46.4 46.5 46.8 47.4 46.2 47.9 45.9 6.2 6.0 7.0 7.7 8.1 8.6 9.9 11.1 11.1 12.6 11.8 13.1 12.7 13.7 12.3 13.4 14.0 12.3 12.0 11.6 13.3 12.5 13.5 22.3 23.4 24.7 26.7 28.0 29.4 30.6 30.1 29.8 30.5 29.3 30.0 31.3 30.3 31.9 29.0 30.1 31.4 31.3 31.4 31.1 30.2 30.6 7.3 5,724 568 9,123 8.2 4,487 454 9,732 9.3 3,679 406 7,630 10.5 3,297 374 6,048 10.9 2,947 342 4,605 11.3 2,574 304 2,657 10.6 2,237 275 2,272 10.6 2,099 259 2,127 9.9 1,948 240 1,971 9.5 1,755 219 1,774 10.5 2,243 217 2,266 9.4 2,135 213 2,158 9.6 2,135 223 2,158 9.2 1,686 220 1,705 8.9 1,608 226 1,626 9.5 2,037 240 2,057 9.5 1,714 196 1,732 9.8 1,547 172 1,564 9.9 1,535 225 1,553 9.6 1,516 263 1,533 r 2,037 r 2,059 9.3 307 9.4 2,250 325 2,297 10.0 ��������������� ��������������� ����������������� 1 Beginning January 2011, includes unemployment durations of up to 5 years; prior data are for up to 2 years. 2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands), Federal (UCFE), ex-service members (UCX), and Federal and State extended benefit programs. Emergency Unemployment Compensation (2008-2013) and Federal Additional Compensation (2009-2010). Also includes Note: Data relate to persons age 16 years and over (except for insured unemployment and initial claims). Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 Nonagricultural Employment Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 20,000 in February. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 155 108 106 ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 150 PRIVATE SERVICE-PROVIDING INDUSTRIES 104 102 100 145 98 96 140 135 26 24 EDUCATION AND HEALTH SERVICES 22 PROFESSIONAL AND BUSINESS SERVICES 20 130 18 PRIVATE INDUSTRIES RETAIL TRADE 16 125 14 22 120 GOODS-PRODUCING 20 115 18 16 110 14 24 GOVERNMENT MANUFACTURING 12 22 20 10 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 2018 2019 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thousands of wage and salary workers; 1 monthly data seasonally adjusted] Chart 14 - Jan/Feb 2019 Private industries Period 2009 r ������������������ 2010 r ������������������ 2011 r ������������������ 2012 r ������������������ 2013 r ������������������ 2014 r ������������������ 2015 r ������������������ 2016 r ������������������ 2017 r ������������������ 2018 r ������������������ 2018: Feb r ��������� Mar r �������� Apr r ��������� May r �������� June r ������� July r �������� Aug r ��������� Sept r �������� Oct r ���������� Nov r ��������� Dec r ��������� 2019: Jan ����������� Feb p ��������� Total nonagricultural employment 131,313 130,362 131,932 134,175 136,381 138,958 141,843 144,352 146,624 149,074 148,097 148,279 148,475 148,745 149,007 149,185 149,467 149,575 149,852 150,048 150,275 150,586 150,606 Goods-producing industries Total private 108,758 107,871 109,845 112,255 114,529 117,076 119,814 122,128 124,275 126,625 125,697 125,870 126,054 126,318 126,554 126,727 126,973 127,081 127,366 127,566 127,790 128,098 128,123 Total 2 Construc- Manufaction turing 18,558 17,751 18,047 18,420 18,738 19,226 19,610 19,750 20,084 20,710 20,497 20,527 20,587 20,650 20,706 20,744 20,794 20,832 20,892 20,921 20,961 21,042 21,010 6,016 5,518 5,533 5,646 5,856 6,151 6,461 6,728 6,969 7,289 7,199 7,201 7,230 7,267 7,284 7,303 7,337 7,354 7,379 7,384 7,400 7,453 7,422 11,847 11,528 11,726 11,927 12,020 12,185 12,336 12,354 12,439 12,689 12,592 12,612 12,634 12,655 12,687 12,707 12,715 12,733 12,762 12,789 12,809 12,830 12,834 Private service-providing industries Trade, transportation, and utilities Total Total 3 90,201 90,121 91,798 93,835 95,791 97,850 100,204 102,379 104,191 105,916 105,200 105,343 105,467 105,668 105,848 105,983 106,179 106,249 106,474 106,645 106,829 107,056 107,113 24,850 24,581 25,008 25,416 25,801 26,321 26,824 27,195 27,409 27,659 27,560 27,591 27,589 27,630 27,622 27,643 27,693 27,692 27,715 27,783 27,788 27,842 27,844 Retail trade 14,528 14,446 14,674 14,847 15,085 15,363 15,611 15,832 15,846 15,833 15,833 15,834 15,838 15,856 15,822 15,824 15,830 15,804 15,794 15,827 15,821 15,835 15,829 Information Financial activities 2,804 2,707 2,674 2,676 2,706 2,726 2,750 2,794 2,814 2,828 2,812 2,824 2,829 2,831 2,831 2,832 2,826 2,822 2,832 2,829 2,827 2,815 2,815 7,838 7,695 7,697 7,784 7,886 7,977 8,123 8,287 8,451 8,569 8,528 8,537 8,541 8,556 8,567 8,572 8,583 8,597 8,611 8,614 8,615 8,624 8,630 Profes- Education Leisure sional and and and health hospitalbusiness services ity services 16,634 16,783 17,389 17,992 18,575 19,124 19,695 20,114 20,508 20,999 20,774 20,816 20,878 20,929 20,980 21,017 21,075 21,128 21,183 21,217 21,254 21,269 21,311 19,630 19,975 20,318 20,769 21,086 21,439 22,029 22,639 23,188 23,667 23,481 23,518 23,542 23,581 23,646 23,694 23,754 23,779 23,816 23,845 23,912 23,976 23,980 13,077 13,049 13,353 13,768 14,254 14,696 15,160 15,660 16,051 16,348 16,233 16,244 16,262 16,300 16,343 16,378 16,395 16,371 16,450 16,489 16,554 16,643 16,643 Other services 5,367 5,331 5,360 5,430 5,483 5,567 5,622 5,691 5,770 5,845 5,812 5,813 5,826 5,841 5,859 5,847 5,853 5,860 5,867 5,868 5,879 5,887 5,890 Government 22,555 22,490 22,086 21,920 21,853 21,882 22,029 22,224 22,350 22,449 22,400 22,409 22,421 22,427 22,453 22,458 22,494 22,494 22,486 22,482 22,485 22,488 22,483 1 Data from the establishment survey. Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who received pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, unpaid family workers, and private household workers. Data from the household survey shown on p. 11 include those workers and also count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off. In the series shown here, persons who work at more than one job are counted each time they appear on a payroll, in contrast to the series shown on p. 11 where persons are counted only once—as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force. See Employment and Earnings for details. 2 Includes mining and logging, not shown separately. 3 Includes wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, and utilities, not shown separately. Note: Data classified by industry based on the 2017 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). For details see Employment and Earnings. Data reflect annual revisions released February 2, 2019. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 14 Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings— Private Nonagricultural Industries [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Average weekly hours Total private nonagricultural 1 Period 2009 r ������������������ 2010 r ������������������ 2011 r ������������������ 2012 r ������������������ 2013 r ������������������ 2014 r ������������������ 2015 r ������������������ 2016 r ������������������ 2017 r ������������������ 2018 r ������������������ 2018: Jan r ��������� Feb r ��������� Mar r �������� Apr r ��������� May r �������� June r ������� July r �������� Aug r ��������� Sept r �������� Oct r ���������� Nov r ��������� Dec r ��������� 2019: Jan ����������� Feb p ��������� Average gross hourly earnings Total private nonagricultural 1 Manufacturing Total 33.1 33.4 33.6 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.6 33.7 33.8 33.6 33.8 33.7 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.8 33.6 Overtime 39.8 41.1 41.4 41.7 41.8 42.0 41.8 41.9 41.9 42.2 41.9 42.2 42.2 42.4 42.0 42.1 42.2 42.2 42.1 42.1 42.0 42.0 42.0 41.8 2.9 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 Current dollars Manufacturing 1982-84 dollars 2 $18.61 $8.88 19.05 8.90 19.44 8.77 19.74 8.73 20.13 8.78 20.61 8.85 21.03 9.07 21.54 9.20 22.06 9.23 22.71 9.26 22.36 9.20 22.40 9.20 22.49 9.23 22.55 9.24 22.62 9.24 22.67 9.24 22.71 9.24 22.80 9.27 22.86 9.29 22.90 9.27 22.99 9.32 23.09 9.37 23.10 9.38 23.18 ����������������� Average gross weekly earnings Total private nonagricultural 1 Current dollars $18.24 18.61 18.93 19.08 19.30 19.56 19.91 20.44 20.90 21.54 21.29 21.34 21.39 21.46 21.43 21.48 21.46 21.55 21.62 21.69 21.78 21.85 21.84 21.90 Percent change from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural Current dollars 1982-84 dollars 2 $615.96 $293.83 636.19 297.33 652.89 294.66 665.65 294.24 677.70 295.52 694.85 298.51 708.90 305.81 723.31 309.01 742.62 310.65 767.08 312.91 751.30 309.16 757.12 310.89 757.91 311.19 762.19 312.38 764.56 312.45 766.25 312.44 767.60 312.45 770.64 313.24 770.38 313.13 771.73 312.56 774.76 314.08 778.13 315.86 780.78 317.19 778.85 ����������������� Manufacturing Construction $726.12 765.18 784.29 794.67 807.37 822.03 832.25 855.77 876.10 908.08 892.05 900.55 902.66 909.90 900.06 904.31 905.61 909.41 910.20 913.15 914.76 917.70 917.28 915.42 $851.76 891.83 921.84 942.14 958.72 977.11 998.02 1,031.88 1,061.98 1,108.49 1,079.05 1,090.92 1,096.00 1,100.80 1,109.86 1,100.44 1,111.97 1,108.43 1,106.42 1,105.17 1,105.90 1,125.18 1,140.89 1,104.48 1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. 2 Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI–W) (on a 1982-84=100 base). annual revisions. Retail trade Current dollars $388.74 400.38 412.29 422.35 423.44 431.97 446.01 447.69 463.10 482.90 472.72 470.26 476.67 479.65 484.27 484.95 486.17 486.40 487.01 488.22 487.43 490.03 493.39 492.26 1982-84 dollars 2 1.4 2.1 3.3 1.2 2.6 –.9 2.0 –.1 1.8 .4 2.5 1.0 2.0 2.4 2.0 1.0 2.7 .5 3.3 .7 2.5 .3 3.1 .7 3.4 .9 3.1 .5 3.5 .6 3.2 .1 3.2 .0 3.7 .8 3.3 1.0 3.2 .6 3.4 1.2 3.2 1.4 3.9 2.6 2.9 ������������������� Seasonally adjusted data revised to reflect CPI-W Note: See Note, p. 14. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). Employment Cost Index—Private Industry Index (December 2005 = 100) Period Total compensation Wages and salaries Percent change from 3 months earlier Benefits 1 Total compensation 12 months earlier Wages and salaries Benefits 1 Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits 1 Not seasonally adjusted 2009: 2010: 2011: 2012: 2013: 2014: 2015: 2016: 2017: 2018: Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ 110.2 112.5 115.0 117.1 119.4 122.2 124.5 127.2 130.5 134.4 110.8 112.8 114.6 116.6 119.0 121.6 124.2 127.1 130.6 134.7 108.7 111.9 115.9 118.2 120.5 123.5 125.1 127.3 130.2 133.6 ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� Seasonally adjusted 2016: Mar ����������������������������������������� June ���������������������������������������� Sept ���������������������������������������� Dec ������������������������������������������ 2017: Mar ����������������������������������������� June ���������������������������������������� Sept ���������������������������������������� Dec ������������������������������������������ 2018: Mar ����������������������������������������� June ���������������������������������������� Sept ���������������������������������������� Dec ������������������������������������������ 125.4 126.1 126.7 127.3 128.3 129.0 130.0 130.6 131.9 132.7 133.7 134.5 125.1 126.0 126.6 127.2 128.3 129.0 130.0 130.7 132.0 132.8 133.9 134.8 125.9 126.3 127.0 127.5 128.3 129.1 130.0 130.5 131.6 132.7 133.2 133.9 1.2 2.1 2.2 1.8 2.0 2.3 1.9 2.2 2.6 3.0 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.8 3.1 0.9 2.9 3.6 2.0 1.9 2.5 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.6 Not seasonally adjusted 0.6 .6 .5 .5 .8 .5 .8 .5 1.0 .6 .8 .6 0.6 .7 .5 .5 .9 .5 .8 .5 1.0 .6 .8 .7 0.5 .3 .6 .4 .6 .6 .7 .4 .8 .8 .4 .5 1.8 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.0 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.1 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.8 2.5 2.6 1 Employer costs for employee benefits. Note: The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries. Data exclude farm and household workers. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 15 Productivity and Related Data, Business and Nonfarm Business Sectors Labor productivity (output per hour) Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Hours of all persons 2 Output 1 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Real compensation per hour 4 Compensation per hour 3 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit labor costs Implicit price deflator 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 97.4 95.9 98.1 100.0 100.6 102.5 104.2 105.2 107.5 109.1 103.6 104.0 104.3 104.9 104.9 104.8 105.0 105.9 107.0 107.0 107.7 108.3 109.3 108.5 109.0 109.5 97.5 96.1 98.2 100.0 100.8 102.8 104.6 105.5 107.9 109.4 104.0 104.3 104.7 105.3 105.2 105.2 105.4 106.3 107.4 107.3 108.1 108.7 109.6 108.8 109.3 109.8 94.9 96.0 98.2 100.0 101.5 103.2 103.8 104.7 106.5 108.8 103.2 103.8 104.1 104.0 103.8 104.6 104.9 105.4 105.8 106.1 106.6 107.4 107.9 108.8 109.1 109.6 95.4 96.3 98.2 100.0 101.5 103.3 104.2 105.3 107.0 109.4 103.6 104.2 104.5 104.4 104.4 105.2 105.6 106.0 106.4 106.6 107.1 107.9 108.4 109.3 109.7 110.2 –2.7 –1.5 2.2 2.0 .6 1.9 1.7 .9 2.3 1.4 2.2 1.4 1.3 2.2 –.2 –.4 .9 3.6 4.2 –.3 2.8 2.3 3.7 –3.0 1.8 1.8 –2.5 –1.5 2.2 1.8 .8 2.0 1.8 .9 2.2 1.4 2.3 1.4 1.4 2.3 –.2 –.2 .9 3.4 4.2 –.3 2.8 2.3 3.5 –2.8 1.6 2.0 0.2 1.2 2.3 1.9 1.5 1.7 .6 .9 1.7 2.2 –1.3 2.2 1.3 –.3 –.8 3.1 1.3 1.7 1.8 .8 2.0 2.9 1.9 3.6 1.1 1.8 0.5 1.0 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.8 .8 1.1 1.6 2.3 –.6 2.1 1.2 –.2 –.3 3.2 1.5 1.8 1.3 .8 2.1 2.9 1.8 3.6 1.4 1.7 Indexes, 2012=100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 2009 r ������������������ 2010 r ������������������ 2011 r ������������������ 2012 �������������������� 2013 r ������������������ 2014 r ������������������ 2015 r ������������������ 2016 r ������������������ 2017 r ������������������ 2018 p ������������������ 2015: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2016: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2017: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2018: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV p * �������� 96.1 99.3 99.2 100.0 100.9 101.6 102.8 103.0 104.1 105.5 102.4 103.0 103.2 102.4 102.5 102.7 103.1 103.6 103.5 103.9 104.6 104.3 104.5 105.4 105.8 106.3 95.9 99.2 99.1 100.0 100.5 101.3 102.6 102.8 103.9 105.3 102.3 102.9 103.0 102.2 102.4 102.6 102.9 103.3 103.4 103.8 104.4 104.3 104.4 105.1 105.6 106.1 92.3 95.2 97.1 100.0 102.4 105.6 109.3 111.1 114.0 117.9 108.3 109.4 109.6 109.7 110.1 110.8 111.4 112.0 112.5 113.5 114.5 115.3 116.0 117.5 118.6 119.5 92.0 95.0 96.9 100.0 102.2 105.4 109.0 110.8 113.8 117.8 108.1 109.2 109.4 109.4 109.8 110.5 111.1 111.7 112.3 113.3 114.3 115.2 115.9 117.3 118.5 119.4 96.0 95.9 97.8 100.0 101.5 103.9 106.3 107.9 109.5 111.8 105.8 106.2 106.2 107.1 107.4 107.9 108.1 108.2 108.7 109.3 109.4 110.6 111.0 111.4 112.1 112.5 96.0 95.8 97.8 100.0 101.7 104.0 106.2 107.8 109.5 111.9 105.7 106.2 106.2 107.0 107.3 107.7 108.0 108.2 108.6 109.2 109.6 110.5 111.0 111.6 112.2 112.5 93.6 95.3 97.3 100.0 101.5 104.1 107.1 108.3 111.9 115.1 106.1 107.2 107.7 107.4 107.5 107.6 108.2 109.7 110.8 111.2 112.7 113.0 114.3 114.4 115.3 116.3 93.5 95.3 97.4 100.0 101.3 104.1 107.3 108.5 112.1 115.2 106.4 107.3 107.9 107.6 107.7 107.9 108.5 109.8 111.0 111.4 112.8 113.3 114.4 114.4 115.4 116.5 100.2 100.4 99.4 100.0 100.0 100.9 103.6 103.4 104.7 105.0 103.4 103.7 103.8 103.5 103.6 103.0 103.1 103.8 104.1 104.4 105.3 104.7 105.1 104.6 104.9 105.5 100.2 100.4 99.5 100.0 99.8 100.9 103.8 103.6 104.8 105.1 103.6 103.9 104.0 103.7 103.8 103.3 103.4 103.9 104.3 104.6 105.4 105.0 105.2 104.6 105.0 105.6 Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 2009 r ������������������ 2010 r ������������������ 2011 r ������������������ 2012 r ������������������ 2013 r ������������������ 2014 r ������������������ 2015 r ������������������ 2016 r ������������������ 2017 r ������������������ 2018 p ������������������ 2015: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2016: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2017: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2018: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV p * �������� 3.6 3.3 –.1 .8 .9 .7 1.2 .2 1.1 1.4 2.7 2.5 .8 –3.2 .4 .7 1.4 2.0 –.2 1.6 2.8 –1.2 .9 3.4 1.4 1.8 3.5 3.4 .0 .9 .5 .8 1.3 .2 1.1 1.3 2.9 2.2 .7 –3.1 .5 1.0 1.2 1.4 .4 1.6 2.2 –.4 .6 2.8 1.8 1.9 –3.7 3.2 1.9 3.0 2.4 3.0 3.5 1.7 2.6 3.5 4.1 4.1 .8 .1 1.6 2.6 2.2 2.2 1.9 3.7 3.5 2.9 2.5 5.1 3.9 3.2 –3.9 3.3 2.0 3.1 2.2 3.1 3.5 1.6 2.7 3.5 4.1 4.1 .6 .1 1.6 2.5 2.2 2.3 1.9 3.8 3.6 3.0 2.6 5.0 4.0 3.1 –7.1 –.1 2.0 2.3 1.5 2.4 2.3 1.5 1.5 2.1 1.4 1.5 –.1 3.4 1.2 1.8 .7 .2 2.0 2.1 .7 4.1 1.6 1.6 2.5 1.3 –7.2 –.1 2.0 2.3 1.7 2.3 2.2 1.4 1.6 2.2 1.1 1.9 .0 3.2 1.1 1.5 1.0 .9 1.5 2.2 1.4 3.4 2.0 2.1 2.1 1.2 0.9 1.8 2.1 2.8 1.5 2.6 2.8 1.1 3.4 2.8 4.9 4.0 2.1 –1.0 .2 .3 2.4 5.6 4.0 1.3 5.6 1.1 4.6 .3 3.2 3.6 0.9 1.9 2.2 2.7 1.3 2.8 3.1 1.1 3.4 2.7 5.3 3.7 2.0 –.9 .3 .7 2.1 4.8 4.7 1.3 5.1 1.9 4.0 –.1 3.5 3.9 1.2 .1 –1.0 .6 .0 .9 2.7 –.2 1.2 .4 7.6 1.2 .5 –1.2 .3 –2.3 .5 2.8 1.0 1.3 3.4 –2.1 1.3 –1.8 1.2 2.1 1.3 .2 –.9 .5 –.2 1.1 2.9 –.2 1.2 .3 8.0 .9 .4 –1.0 .4 –2.0 .2 2.0 1.6 1.2 2.9 –1.4 .8 –2.2 1.4 2.4 1 Output refers to real gross domestic product originating in the sector. 2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers’ contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed. 4 Hourly compensation divided by consumer price series. The trend for 1978-2017 is based on the consumer price index research series (CPI-U-RS). The change for recent quarters is based on the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U). 5 Current dollar gross domestic output divided by the output index. Note: Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. * Data based on GDP data released on February 28, 2019. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production and capacity utilization fell in January. INDEX, 2012 = 100* (RATIO SCALE) 120 INDEX, 2012 = 100* (RATIO SCALE) 130 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FINAL PRODUCTS 110 120 100 CONSUMER GOODS 110 90 80 BUSINESS EQUIPMENT 100 120 MANUFACTURING DURABLE TOTAL1 110 90 100 NONDURABLE DEFENSE AND SPACE EQUIPMENT 90 80 80 140 PERCENT* 86 CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE (TOTAL INDUSTRY) 84 UTILITIES AND MINING 130 120 82 MINING 80 78 110 76 100 74 72 UTILITIES 90 70 68 66 80 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1 SEE FOOTNOTE 1 TABLE BELOW *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Total industrial production 1 Period 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2018 r ������������������ 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� July ���������� Aug r ��������� Sept r �������� Oct r ���������� Nov r ��������� Dec r ��������� 2019: Jan p ��������� Percent change 2 Index, 2012=100 89.2 94.1 97.1 100.0 102.0 105.2 104.1 102.1 103.7 108.0 105.4 105.9 106.4 107.7 106.8 107.4 107.9 108.8 109.0 109.3 110.0 110.1 109.4 From preceding month ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� –0.3 .5 .5 1.1 –.8 .6 .4 .9 .2 .3 .6 .1 –.6 Chart 17 - Jan/Feb 2019 Industry production indexes, 2012=100 Capacity utilization rate (output as percent of capacity) 1 Manufacturing From year earlier –11.5 5.5 3.1 3.0 2.0 3.1 –1.0 –1.9 1.6 4.1 2.8 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.0 3.5 4.1 5.5 5.7 4.4 4.5 4.1 3.8 Total 1 89.5 94.7 97.5 100.0 100.9 102.0 101.5 100.7 101.9 104.4 102.3 103.8 103.7 104.3 103.3 104.0 104.4 104.9 105.2 105.0 105.3 106.1 105.2 Durable 80.6 89.2 94.7 100.0 102.1 105.1 103.9 101.7 103.3 106.8 104.0 105.6 105.8 106.3 104.7 106.1 106.0 107.5 108.1 108.0 108.6 109.9 108.0 Nondurable 97.7 99.8 99.9 100.0 100.0 99.3 99.6 100.4 101.8 103.9 102.2 103.6 103.1 103.9 103.6 103.9 104.8 104.4 104.3 104.1 104.2 104.7 104.7 Other (non-NAICS) 1 120.3 111.2 106.0 100.0 95.0 93.8 90.4 88.0 81.9 76.1 78.2 79.8 80.1 79.5 77.6 74.4 73.7 73.8 74.7 75.1 73.7 71.6 72.0 Mining 83.1 87.2 92.6 100.0 106.3 117.8 113.8 102.7 109.3 123.3 113.9 117.1 118.4 119.5 120.7 122.8 123.8 126.5 127.6 127.9 129.3 131.2 131.3 Utilities 99.0 102.8 102.4 100.0 102.2 103.5 102.7 102.3 101.0 105.5 108.8 98.4 102.6 108.5 105.7 104.1 104.2 105.4 104.1 107.5 109.9 102.4 102.8 Total industry Total manufacturing 68.5 73.6 76.2 77.2 77.6 79.0 77.3 75.3 76.1 78.0 77.0 77.2 77.5 78.2 77.5 77.8 78.0 78.5 78.5 78.6 78.9 78.8 78.2 65.5 70.7 73.6 74.9 75.0 75.8 75.8 74.6 74.8 75.7 74.7 75.7 75.6 75.9 75.1 75.5 75.7 76.0 76.1 75.9 76.0 76.5 75.8 1 Total industry and total manufacturing series include manufacturing as defined in the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) plus those industries—logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory-publishing—that have traditionally been included in manufacturing. 2 Percent changes based on unrounded indexes. Note: Data based on NAICS except series as defined in footnote 1. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 Industrial Production— Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures [2012=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Products and nonindustrial supplies Materials Final products Consumer goods Period Total 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2018 r ������������������ 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� July ���������� Aug r ��������� Sept r �������� Oct r ���������� Nov r ��������� Dec r ��������� 2019: Jan p ��������� Nonindustrial supplies Total 93.0 96.0 98.2 100.0 100.3 101.3 100.8 99.1 100.3 103.0 101.7 101.8 102.1 103.6 101.2 102.2 102.4 103.2 103.7 104.3 104.6 104.3 103.4 99.2 100.3 101.4 100.0 100.7 101.5 103.0 103.6 103.7 106.1 105.5 105.3 105.7 107.4 104.6 105.3 105.5 105.9 106.2 107.0 107.3 106.3 105.6 Durable goods 85.9 94.2 97.7 100.0 105.5 110.6 115.0 117.5 117.6 120.7 117.7 120.9 122.0 121.0 116.0 119.8 119.2 121.8 123.3 121.6 122.5 124.8 119.3 Equipment Nondurable goods 102.9 101.9 102.3 100.0 99.5 99.2 99.9 100.1 100.1 102.4 102.4 101.3 101.6 103.9 101.7 101.6 102.1 101.9 101.9 103.3 103.5 101.6 102.1 Total 1 81.5 87.8 92.2 100.0 99.6 101.0 96.6 90.2 93.8 97.2 94.5 95.0 95.2 96.2 94.7 96.5 96.6 98.0 98.9 99.3 99.6 100.9 99.6 Business 80.0 86.1 91.1 100.0 99.9 101.7 99.6 94.4 97.4 100.4 98.5 98.6 98.7 99.6 97.5 99.5 99.7 101.2 102.2 102.5 102.8 103.8 102.2 Defense and space Total 93.8 100.9 98.0 100.0 97.1 93.9 91.7 89.1 89.3 92.0 87.8 88.5 88.7 90.0 89.5 90.4 91.3 92.8 93.9 94.7 94.9 98.2 97.5 93.5 96.6 98.0 100.0 102.2 103.9 103.2 103.8 105.1 107.3 105.8 106.7 106.8 107.6 107.3 107.3 107.0 107.1 106.9 107.5 107.5 108.0 107.8 Construction 90.3 93.6 95.8 100.0 103.1 106.4 107.0 108.0 110.8 114.6 111.2 114.8 113.6 114.3 114.7 114.2 114.1 114.5 114.3 114.6 115.3 117.6 117.1 Business 95.0 98.0 99.0 100.0 101.8 102.8 101.4 101.8 102.3 103.6 103.1 102.7 103.5 104.3 103.6 103.8 103.5 103.5 103.2 103.9 103.6 103.1 103.0 Total 1 84.9 91.9 95.9 100.0 103.4 108.5 106.9 103.7 105.9 112.2 108.2 108.9 109.8 110.9 111.2 111.7 112.6 114.0 114.0 113.9 115.1 115.4 114.9 Energy 86.7 90.6 94.1 100.0 105.1 114.0 112.6 106.0 109.3 120.7 115.2 114.7 116.3 117.7 119.2 119.7 121.4 124.0 124.3 124.4 126.1 125.6 125.7 1 Includes other items, not shown separately. [2012=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Durable manufactures Computer and electronic products Primary metals Period Total 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2018 r ������������������ 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� July ���������� Aug r ��������� Sept r �������� Oct r ���������� Nov r ��������� Dec r ��������� 2019: Jan p ��������� 77.5 95.0 102.0 100.0 103.3 104.0 96.8 92.5 93.9 97.5 94.8 96.4 97.2 96.8 96.5 95.9 95.3 96.9 98.0 98.5 101.6 101.3 101.1 Iron and steel products 70.3 91.8 100.1 100.0 102.1 101.3 91.6 87.3 91.7 96.7 92.2 95.3 97.7 95.5 95.2 93.5 94.0 96.9 97.1 99.2 102.9 100.7 101.7 Fabricated metal products 85.2 90.7 97.1 100.0 101.8 103.6 100.2 96.5 97.6 103.1 99.9 101.8 102.0 102.0 101.7 103.0 102.7 103.4 103.9 104.2 104.7 104.9 105.3 Nondurable manufactures Machinery Total 73.5 82.1 92.5 100.0 95.4 96.7 89.0 82.2 87.5 92.3 90.0 89.6 88.9 91.0 90.1 90.8 91.2 94.0 94.5 94.9 96.1 95.0 94.6 75.6 85.6 92.6 100.0 103.2 107.4 108.1 110.4 113.9 120.0 116.6 117.2 117.8 118.8 118.4 119.7 121.5 121.5 121.4 121.0 121.3 123.3 121.6 Selected high-technology 1 66.6 80.9 91.1 100.0 110.7 122.7 126.7 133.9 139.1 149.1 144.6 143.7 144.7 145.4 145.4 148.6 150.2 152.8 152.3 152.4 153.4 153.9 154.0 Transportation equipment Total 74.6 86.5 90.4 100.0 105.1 111.9 115.0 112.2 111.7 113.6 110.6 113.1 114.6 113.8 108.1 112.8 111.4 114.5 116.2 114.6 115.3 119.5 113.3 1 Computers and peripheral equipment, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 Motor vehicles and parts 62.3 82.7 90.4 100.0 107.2 117.1 123.2 124.8 123.7 127.9 124.1 129.0 132.7 130.0 118.9 127.4 124.3 129.1 131.9 128.3 129.5 135.1 123.2 Apparel 112.7 109.5 102.9 100.0 92.6 88.8 84.3 79.2 71.0 68.9 69.7 70.6 70.4 71.9 71.2 68.6 72.1 69.2 67.5 66.4 65.4 63.5 62.6 Printing and related support activities 103.6 103.5 101.8 100.0 100.3 98.5 97.5 99.2 98.9 97.4 98.2 98.7 96.5 97.5 98.0 98.2 98.6 96.6 97.4 96.8 96.0 95.5 95.0 Chemicals 98.1 101.3 101.4 100.0 96.6 95.6 95.2 94.7 95.6 99.1 95.9 96.9 97.4 98.5 98.9 99.3 100.2 100.4 99.8 99.9 101.2 100.9 100.5 Food 99.9 100.4 100.2 100.0 102.0 102.9 104.4 106.6 111.0 114.6 112.8 115.6 113.7 115.0 114.5 114.8 116.6 115.6 114.9 114.1 113.4 114.3 114.3 New Construction [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Private Period 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2018 p ������������������ 2017: Dec ����������� 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept r �������� Oct r ���������� Nov ���������� Dec p �������� Total new construction expenditures 906.5 809.3 788.3 850.5 906.4 1,005.6 1,113.6 1,191.8 1,246.0 1,297.7 1,272.6 1,276.3 1,305.5 1,293.1 1,314.7 1,324.3 1,314.8 1,317.7 1,311.8 1,287.9 1,290.6 1,300.6 1,292.7 Residential Total New housing Total 1 591.6 505.3 501.9 571.1 635.7 729.5 823.3 899.3 962.8 995.6 983.1 985.9 1,013.3 997.9 1,015.3 1,016.8 1,009.4 1,012.6 999.2 983.2 984.1 997.1 991.2 Federal and State and local Nonresidential 247.5 242.0 244.1 269.8 323.4 369.8 422.1 467.2 524.9 542.3 543.7 541.8 560.2 546.6 563.4 561.9 551.7 555.4 540.9 530.0 526.1 544.2 536.7 Total 133.9 127.3 123.2 154.5 202.3 235.2 273.7 303.6 330.1 344.5 343.4 343.0 348.5 344.8 346.6 349.6 347.5 347.0 343.3 345.4 344.5 339.5 332.7 Lodging 344.1 263.3 257.8 301.4 312.3 359.7 401.2 432.2 437.8 453.4 439.4 444.1 453.1 451.3 451.9 454.9 457.8 457.2 458.3 453.3 458.1 452.9 454.5 Commercial (including farm) Office 25.4 11.2 8.4 10.2 13.0 16.3 21.3 26.5 28.0 30.9 29.0 28.9 30.1 30.3 31.0 30.5 30.7 30.7 31.0 31.2 32.3 31.9 32.2 37.3 24.4 23.7 27.4 30.1 38.9 47.4 59.6 58.6 63.5 60.2 61.4 62.8 62.3 62.1 63.1 62.7 63.3 63.4 64.1 67.0 64.9 64.9 Manufacturing 51.1 37.2 39.2 44.3 50.9 60.9 63.4 75.0 84.6 86.4 86.1 85.8 89.6 89.3 88.3 89.7 89.4 87.8 84.9 84.2 84.3 83.0 82.1 Other 2 57.4 40.6 39.8 46.8 49.9 58.1 79.3 75.7 65.8 64.7 64.0 63.8 64.5 63.3 61.3 60.8 64.2 65.1 67.1 65.0 65.6 66.5 67.6 173.0 149.9 146.7 172.6 168.3 185.5 189.7 195.3 200.9 208.0 200.1 204.2 206.2 206.2 209.3 210.9 210.8 210.3 211.9 208.9 208.9 206.7 207.8 New houses sold New houses for sale at end of period 3 314.9 304.0 286.4 279.3 270.7 276.1 290.3 292.5 283.2 302.0 289.5 290.3 292.2 295.2 299.4 307.5 305.4 305.1 312.6 304.7 306.4 303.5 301.5 1 Includes residential improvements, not shown separately. 2 Includes health care, educational, communication, and power, among other categories not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census). New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates [Thousands of units or houses, except as noted] New housing units authorized 2 New housing units started Type of structure Period Total 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2018 p ������������������ 554.0 586.9 608.8 780.6 924.9 1,003.3 1,111.8 1,173.8 1,203.0 1,242.3 1 unit 445.1 471.2 430.6 535.3 617.6 647.9 714.5 781.5 848.9 870.6 Type of structure 2–4 units 1 11.6 11.4 10.9 11.4 13.6 13.7 11.5 11.5 11.4 13.7 5 units or more Total 97.3 104.3 167.3 233.9 293.7 341.7 385.8 380.8 342.7 358.0 583.0 604.6 624.1 829.7 990.8 1,052.1 1,182.6 1,206.6 1,282.0 1,317.9 1 unit 441.1 447.3 418.5 518.7 620.8 640.3 696.0 750.8 820.0 852.9 2–4 units 5 units or more 20.7 22.0 21.6 25.9 29.0 29.9 32.1 34.8 37.2 37.6 121.1 135.3 184.0 285.1 341.1 382.0 454.5 421.1 424.8 427.4 45 46 40 41 34 36 28 35 40 36 39 37 51 451 391 486 460 424 403 402 387 376 382 435 460 482 New housing units completed 794.4 651.7 584.9 649.2 764.4 883.8 968.2 1,059.7 1,152.9 1,176.0 375 323 306 368 429 437 501 561 613 622 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 4 234 190 151 150 186 210 232 255 294 344 10.6 10.2 9.5 8.7 8.3 7.6 7.1 6.9 7.2 6.9 1,218 633 295 1,289 663 300 1,229 672 297 1,257 633 300 1,251 653 301 1,216 612 308 1,195 606 313 1,230 601 316 1,148 609 322 1,111 549 330 1,101 599 334 975 621 344 1,244 ������������������ ������������������ �������������������� �������������������� 7.0 �������������������� �������������������� 6.8 �������������������� �������������������� 7.1 �������������������� �������������������� 6.6 �������������������� Seasonally adjusted annual rates 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� July ���������� Aug r ��������� Sept r �������� Oct r ���������� Nov r ��������� Dec p �������� 2019: Jan p ��������� 1,334 1,290 1,327 1,276 1,329 1,177 1,184 1,280 1,237 1,209 1,206 1,037 1,230 886 900 882 898 938 851 861 890 879 863 808 740 926 ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� 435 372 431 357 379 316 317 373 349 327 387 278 289 1,366 1,323 1,377 1,364 1,301 1,292 1,303 1,249 1,270 1,265 1,322 1,326 1,345 870 886 851 863 843 853 873 827 854 847 848 829 812 1 Monthly data do not meet publication standards because tests for identifiable and stable seasonality do not meet reliability standards. 2 Based on approximately 20,100 permit-issuing places beginning with 2014 and 19,300 beginning with 2004. Using the 2004 universe, the total for 2014 is 1,046.4. 3 Seasonally adjusted. 4 Quarterly data are three-month averages. Annual data are averages of quarterly data. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census). 19 Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade In December, according to preliminary estimates, manufacturing and trade sales fell 0.8 percent, while manufacturing and trade inventories rose $12.7 billion and retail inventories rose $5.6 billion. In December, retail sales fell 1.3 percent and retail and food services sales fell 1.2 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,100 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 700 2,000 650 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES 1,900 RETAIL INVENTORIES 600 1,800 550 1,700 500 1,600 450 1,500 RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES SALES 400 RETAIL SALES 1,400 350 RATIO* 1.70 1,300 INVENTORY/SALES RATIO MANUFACTURING AND TRADE SALES 1,200 1.60 RETAIL 1.50 1.40 1,100 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE 1.30 1.20 1,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 2017 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars, except ratios; seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Manufacturing and trade 1 Period 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 r ������������������ 2018 p ������������������ 2017: Nov r ��������� Dec r ��������� 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct r ���������� Nov p �������� Dec p �������� Sales 2 988,802 1,088,890 1,206,660 1,267,248 1,303,229 1,340,932 1,294,787 1,286,409 1,356,014 1,444,204 1,403,578 1,414,511 1,406,327 1,411,971 1,420,071 1,429,298 1,447,550 1,451,814 1,455,246 1,461,984 1,466,193 1,467,492 1,459,719 1,448,122 Inventories 3 Wholesale Inventory/sales ratio 4 1,330,869 1,449,499 1,564,021 1,652,863 1,717,465 1,776,773 1,806,740 1,839,188 1,902,544 1,994,489 1,892,739 1,902,544 1,915,012 1,925,817 1,923,669 1,929,393 1,935,563 1,937,569 1,950,641 1,961,025 1,970,561 1,982,473 1,981,834 1,994,489 1.38 1.27 1.26 1.28 1.29 1.31 1.39 1.42 1.38 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.36 1.36 1.35 1.35 1.34 1.33 1.34 1.34 1.34 1.35 1.36 1.38 Sales 2 319,115 361,447 407,090 434,002 447,546 463,682 441,036 435,490 466,127 500,885 485,814 492,439 483,516 487,805 489,608 496,410 506,959 505,806 506,874 510,369 511,058 508,186 501,933 497,162 Inventories 3 397,383 441,618 487,289 523,034 543,932 575,944 583,576 596,276 616,821 661,843 613,960 616,821 623,030 627,913 629,230 629,865 631,955 632,717 636,339 642,214 646,756 652,318 654,714 661,843 Retail Inventory/sales ratio 4 1.29 1.15 1.15 1.17 1.19 1.22 1.33 1.35 1.29 1.28 1.26 1.25 1.29 1.29 1.29 1.27 1.25 1.25 1.26 1.26 1.27 1.28 1.30 1.33 1 See page 21 for manufacturing. 2 Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. 3 Seasonally adjusted, end of period. 4 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census). 20 Sales 2 301,039 318,171 341,913 358,519 371,538 386,620 393,833 404,695 422,811 443,343 434,561 437,093 434,632 434,859 437,764 439,586 444,141 444,367 446,711 446,408 446,256 451,026 452,014 446,066 Inventories 3 429,188 454,548 470,803 505,652 543,640 560,686 587,892 612,018 626,534 651,097 624,924 626,534 630,503 634,194 629,727 632,396 635,001 634,638 638,148 642,073 642,971 648,097 645,459 651,097 Chart 20 - Jan/Feb 2019 Retail and food Inventory/sales services sales 2 ratio 4 1.47 1.39 1.35 1.38 1.41 1.43 1.46 1.49 1.47 1.44 1.44 1.43 1.45 1.46 1.44 1.44 1.43 1.43 1.43 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.43 1.46 338,706 357,081 383,192 402,199 416,814 434,638 445,791 459,575 479,196 503,035 491,795 494,578 492,034 492,530 496,077 497,776 503,955 505,168 508,230 507,872 506,749 511,616 512,200 505,826 Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders In December, manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and unfilled orders fell, while new orders rose. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 620 580 SHIPMENTS 540 500 460 420 TOTAL 380 340 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 740 INVENTORIES 700 660 620 580 TOTAL 540 500 460 DURABLE GOODS 420 300 380 340 DURABLE GOODS 260 300 220 260 NONDURABLE GOODS 180 220 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 620 580 NEW ORDERS 540 500 460 420 380 NONDURABLE GOODS 180 RATIO* 1.60 INVENTORY/SHIPMENTS RATIO 1.50 TOTAL 340 1.40 300 1.30 DURABLE GOODS 260 220 1.20 1.10 180 2014 2016 2015 2017 2018 2015 2014 2016 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 2017 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturers’ shipments 1 Manufacturers’ inventories 2 Manufacturers’ new orders 1 Chart 21- Jan/Feb 2019 Durable goods Period Total Durable goods 2018 Nondurable goods Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, nondefense Manufacturers’ unfilled orders 2 Manufacturers’ inventory/ shipments ratio 3 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2018 p ������������������ 2017: Dec ����������� 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct r ���������� Nov r ��������� Dec p �������� 368,648 409,273 457,658 474,727 484,145 490,630 459,918 446,225 467,076 499,975 484,979 488,179 489,307 492,699 493,302 496,450 501,641 501,661 505,207 508,879 508,280 505,772 504,894 171,402 190,059 206,591 218,965 224,651 233,077 231,002 226,090 234,463 251,430 242,511 243,238 245,051 247,016 247,002 247,423 251,528 251,307 253,456 255,840 254,964 257,418 259,144 197,246 219,214 251,067 255,762 259,495 257,553 228,916 220,135 232,614 248,545 242,468 244,941 244,256 245,683 246,300 249,027 250,113 250,354 251,751 253,039 253,316 248,354 245,750 504,298 553,333 605,929 624,177 629,893 640,143 635,272 630,894 659,189 681,549 659,189 661,479 663,710 664,712 667,132 668,607 670,214 676,154 676,738 680,834 682,058 681,661 681,549 294,777 321,512 352,636 367,385 370,629 387,823 391,149 379,310 396,779 415,066 396,779 397,703 399,816 400,538 402,026 403,402 403,440 408,559 407,936 411,069 412,079 414,011 415,066 209,521 231,821 253,293 256,792 259,264 252,320 244,123 251,584 262,410 266,483 262,410 263,776 263,894 264,174 265,106 265,205 266,774 267,595 268,802 269,765 269,979 267,650 266,483 350,478 407,992 459,305 475,809 485,611 493,833 453,290 441,061 464,953 499,537 488,343 480,449 490,295 498,443 496,409 498,401 501,612 498,925 511,974 513,217 502,261 499,551 499,876 153,232 188,778 208,238 220,047 226,116 236,280 224,374 220,926 232,339 250,991 245,875 235,508 246,039 252,760 250,109 249,374 251,499 248,571 260,223 260,178 248,945 251,197 254,126 48,926 62,309 71,753 77,674 80,844 81,410 71,502 67,510 73,549 77,910 77,573 74,861 77,475 84,205 78,584 76,796 78,473 75,540 81,095 78,513 74,850 75,002 77,538 825,987 871,363 954,604 1,014,692 1,076,059 1,160,491 1,128,598 1,114,849 1,136,974 1,180,263 1,136,974 1,133,139 1,138,190 1,147,769 1,154,664 1,160,743 1,164,840 1,166,061 1,176,807 1,185,282 1,183,284 1,181,196 1,180,263 1.39 1.28 1.29 1.30 1.30 1.31 1.39 1.41 1.37 1.35 1.36 1.35 1.36 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.34 1.35 1.34 1.34 1.34 1.35 1.35 1 Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. Shipments are the same as sales. 2 Seasonally adjusted, end of period. 3 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. Note: Manufacturers’ nondurable new orders (not shown) are the same as nondurable shipments. Also, there are no unfilled nondurable orders; data shown for total unfilled orders are durable unfilled orders. Total and durable shipments and inventories include data on semiconductors; new and unfilled orders do not. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census). 21 PRICES Producer Prices The producer price index for final demand fell 0.1 in January. Prices for final demand goods fell 0.8 and prices for final demand services rose 0.3 percent. INDEX, NOV. 2009=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, NOV. 2009=100 (RATIO SCALE) 125 125 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED FINAL DEMAND 120 120 115 115 FINAL DEMAND SERVICES 110 110 FINAL DEMAND FINAL DEMAND GOODS 105 105 100 100 95 95 2013 2014 2015 2017 2016 2018 2019 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [November 2009=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Final demand goods Period Total final demand 1 Total Foods 2 Energy Final demand services Less food and energy Total Trade 3 Transportation and warehousing Other Rel. imp. 4 ����������� 100.0 32.840 5.776 5.292 21.772 65.472 20.317 4.662 40.493 2009 �������������������� ��������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ��������������� ������������� 2010 �������������������� 101.8 102.8 103.7 107.2 101.4 101.3 101.7 103.2 100.9 2011 �������������������� 105.7 109.9 112.5 126.2 104.9 103.4 104.0 110.0 102.5 2012 �������������������� 107.7 111.7 115.9 126.3 106.8 105.4 106.7 114.2 103.9 2013 �������������������� 109.1 112.6 117.8 125.3 107.9 107.1 108.2 115.3 105.8 2014 �������������������� 110.9 114.0 121.6 124.2 109.5 109.0 110.2 117.7 107.5 2015 �������������������� 109.9 109.1 118.4 98.6 109.9 110.0 111.6 115.3 108.7 2016 �������������������� 110.4 107.6 115.1 90.4 110.7 111.5 113.1 113.5 110.6 2017 �������������������� 113.0 111.2 116.5 99.8 113.2 113.5 114.8 115.9 112.8 p 2018 ������������������ 116.2 115.0 116.7 109.9 116.0 116.4 116.8 121.9 115.8 2018: Jan r ��������� 114.8 113.7 116.7 108.3 114.5 115.0 115.7 117.8 114.5 Feb r ��������� 115.1 113.9 116.1 108.7 114.9 115.3 115.8 119.0 114.7 r Mar �������� 115.4 114.3 118.3 107.7 115.2 115.6 115.8 119.6 115.1 r Apr ��������� 115.5 114.3 117.0 108.0 115.5 115.8 116.1 120.2 115.2 May r �������� 116.0 115.2 117.3 111.4 115.8 116.1 116.7 120.9 115.4 June r ������� 116.4 115.3 115.9 112.6 116.0 116.5 117.3 121.9 115.7 r July �������� 116.5 115.4 115.8 112.1 116.3 116.6 117.0 122.5 115.9 r Aug ��������� 116.5 115.5 115.2 112.2 116.5 116.6 116.6 122.5 116.1 Sept r �������� 116.6 115.4 115.1 111.4 116.6 116.8 116.2 124.1 116.4 Oct r ���������� 117.2 116.0 115.9 114.2 116.5 117.5 118.0 124.1 116.6 r Nov ��������� 117.3 115.4 117.4 108.4 116.9 117.8 118.5 125.4 116.8 r Dec ��������� 117.2 115.1 120.4 103.7 117.0 117.8 118.4 125.4 116.8 2019: Jan ����������� 117.1 114.2 118.3 99.8 117.3 118.1 119.4 126.0 116.8 Processed goods Final for intermediate demand demand (1982=100) less foods, energy, Less and food trade Total and (Aug. 2013 energy =100) 2 68.615 ���������������� ���������������� ���������������� ���������������� ���������������� 101.5 102.1 103.3 105.4 108.4 107.0 107.3 107.6 107.8 108.1 108.3 108.6 108.8 109.1 109.2 109.5 109.5 109.7 100.0 172.5 183.4 199.9 200.7 200.8 201.9 188.0 182.2 190.7 200.9 196.7 197.9 198.0 198.9 201.1 202.0 202.2 202.6 203.1 204.2 202.9 201.1 198.3 72.804 173.4 180.8 192.0 192.6 193.8 195.2 189.4 186.9 193.3 201.7 197.2 198.3 199.3 199.8 201.3 202.3 203.0 203.7 204.5 204.7 204.2 202.9 202.3 Unprocessed goods Chart 22 - Jan/Feb 2019 for intermediate demand (1982=100) Services for intermediNonfood ate materials demand Total less energy 100.0 175.2 212.2 249.4 241.4 246.7 249.3 189.1 173.4 190.8 200.7 200.8 203.4 196.4 198.3 202.9 200.9 202.7 195.1 196.9 203.8 192.9 214.3 194.4 20.471 100.0 248.4 ����������������� 329.1 101.1 390.4 103.2 369.6 105.3 351.2 107.2 345.7 108.9 296.0 110.2 288.0 112.1 324.1 115.0 340.2 118.6 342.6 117.0 342.1 117.3 345.8 117.6 347.7 117.9 346.6 118.2 348.8 118.4 342.2 118.9 333.4 118.9 330.0 119.2 328.4 119.8 335.9 120.0 341.0 120.1 334.5 120.4 1 Includes final demand construction, not shown separately. 2 Does not include food and beverages for immediate consumption, which are defined as the service of preparing meals, snacks, and beverages to customer order for immediate consumption. 3 Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers. 4 Relative importance, December 2018. Note: Data revised to reflect annual revisions. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 22 Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers In January, the consumer price index for all urban consumers was unchanged; it rose 0.2 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index rose 1.6 percent from its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1982-84 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) 260 INDEX, 1982-84 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) 260 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 250 250 CONSUMER PRICES—ALL ITEMS 240 240 230 230 220 220 210 210 200 200 190 190 180 180 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 2019 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1982–84=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] All items Period Rel. imp. 4 ����������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2018 �������������������� 2018: Jan r ��������� Feb r ��������� Mar r �������� Apr r ��������� May r �������� June r ������� July r �������� Aug r ��������� Sept r �������� Oct r ���������� Nov r ��������� Dec r ��������� 2019: Jan ����������� Not seasonally Seasonally adjusted adjusted (NSA) 100.0 214.537 218.056 224.939 229.594 232.957 236.736 237.017 240.007 245.120 251.107 247.867 248.991 249.554 250.546 251.588 251.989 252.006 252.146 252.439 252.885 252.038 251.233 251.712 ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� 248.884 249.369 249.498 249.956 250.646 251.134 251.597 251.879 252.010 252.794 252.760 252.723 252.673 All items less food and energy Total 1 79.312 219.235 221.337 225.008 229.755 233.806 237.897 242.247 247.602 252.169 257.565 255.218 255.662 256.144 256.420 256.906 257.327 257.876 258.087 258.496 259.002 259.610 260.078 260.701 Shelter 33.259 249.354 248.396 251.646 257.083 263.056 270.513 278.803 288.230 297.803 307.663 303.118 303.740 304.793 305.773 306.808 307.303 308.204 309.037 309.633 310.291 311.185 311.994 312.891 Medical care 2 8.682 375.613 388.436 400.258 414.924 425.134 435.292 446.752 463.675 475.322 484.707 481.246 481.083 482.495 483.183 483.855 485.789 485.211 484.611 485.501 486.252 488.063 489.295 490.388 Apparel 2.959 120.078 119.503 122.111 126.265 127.411 127.514 125.903 126.045 125.612 125.654 125.799 127.338 126.661 126.682 126.786 125.921 125.539 123.905 125.041 125.269 124.530 124.578 125.934 Food New vehicles 3.724 135.623 138.005 141.883 144.232 145.783 146.275 147.135 147.358 146.992 146.287 146.664 145.965 145.984 145.416 145.950 146.499 146.575 146.623 146.606 146.361 146.407 146.416 146.727 Energy Total 1 At home Away from home 13.341 217.955 219.625 227.842 233.777 237.037 242.725 247.235 247.931 250.065 253.558 252.014 252.145 252.455 253.036 253.207 253.503 253.879 254.065 254.208 254.115 254.616 255.501 256.059 7.286 215.124 215.836 226.201 231.774 233.869 239.456 242.250 239.065 238.589 239.661 239.229 238.983 239.303 239.833 239.475 239.626 240.048 239.994 239.805 239.464 239.760 240.490 240.765 6.055 223.272 226.114 231.401 237.986 243.068 248.981 256.101 262.695 268.826 275.893 272.772 273.435 273.733 274.393 275.307 275.808 276.125 276.648 277.258 277.513 278.306 279.419 280.380 Total 1, 2 7.347 193.126 211.449 243.909 246.080 244.409 243.583 202.895 189.535 204.540 219.941 217.542 218.955 215.801 217.690 220.967 222.361 222.269 223.341 221.077 225.612 219.295 213.565 206.842 Chart 23 - Jan/Feb 2019 Gasoline 3.671 201.555 238.594 301.694 311.470 302.577 290.889 212.007 187.602 211.770 240.599 236.326 237.266 231.392 235.604 242.321 246.341 246.946 248.148 245.255 251.885 238.730 224.878 212.450 C-CPI-U (Dec. 1999=100, NSA) 3 ������������������� 123.850 125.615 129.453 131.976 ������������������� ������������������� ������������������� ������������������� ������������������� ������������������� 140.239 140.805 141.142 141.672 142.215 142.425 142.420 142.473 142.631 142.862 142.389 141.917 142.194 1 Includes other items not shown separately. 2 Commodities and services. 3 Chained consumer price index (C-CPI-U) reflects the effect of substitution that consumers make across item categories in response to changes in relative prices. 4 Relative importance, December 2018. Note: Data revised to reflect annual revisions. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 23 Changes in Producer Prices [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Processed goods Unprocessed goods Change from year earlier Final for intermediate for intermediate (NSA) demand demand demand Services less for foods, intermeTransporLess Nonfood energy, diate tation food Total Final Final materials and demand Trade and Other Total and Total final demand demand less trade wareenergy demand goods services energy housing Final demand goods Period Total final demand 1 Total Foods Energy Final demand services Less food and energy Total Change, December to December, NSA 2009 �������������������� ����������� ���������� ���������� ���������� ����������� ���������� ���������� ������������� ���������� ����������� 2010 �������������������� 2.8 4.7 5.3 12.7 2.4 1.7 2.1 4.3 1.3 ����������� 2011 �������������������� 3.2 4.7 5.7 9.2 3.1 2.3 2.3 6.7 1.8 ����������� 2012 �������������������� 1.9 1.4 4.1 –1.3 1.4 2.2 3.8 2.7 1.4 ����������� 2013 �������������������� 1.2 .8 –.8 .9 1.3 1.3 –.4 2.0 2.0 ����������� 2014 �������������������� .9 –1.2 4.4 –13.2 1.1 2.1 4.0 .8 1.4 1.3 2015 �������������������� –1.1 –3.8 –5.2 –16.4 –.1 .2 .0 –3.5 .8 .3 2016 �������������������� 1.7 1.9 –1.6 6.3 1.7 1.6 1.0 1.1 2.0 1.8 2017 �������������������� 2.5 3.5 2.0 10.1 2.2 2.1 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.3 2018 p ������������������ 2.5 1.7 3.3 –2.7 2.5 2.8 2.5 6.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 6.4 5.7 .4 .1 –2.6 –6.6 1.8 5.0 3.0 –0.1 4.7 3.8 .6 .7 –.1 –3.8 1.6 3.6 3.4 13.3 16.1 6.6 1.4 –1.9 –8.7 –25.3 13.0 5.0 9.1 0.8 .6 .1 .5 1.1 .4 .1 .2 .2 .5 –.6 –.9 –1.4 0.5 .6 .5 .3 .8 .5 .3 .3 .4 .1 –.2 –.6 –.3 2.1 1.3 –3.4 1.0 2.3 –1.0 .9 –3.7 .9 3.5 –5.3 11.1 –9.3 28.9 �������������� ����������� ����������� ������������ 27.6 1.4 ����������� ����������� ������������ 2.4 2.0 3.8 6.9 2.1 –1.6 2.9 1.9 1.6 1.9 –5.6 1.0 1.3 .8 1.6 –5.3 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.8 –18.5 .5 –.9 –4.3 .9 13.7 2.6 .5 –1.4 1.4 8.5 2.9 2.4 3.3 1.8 3.1 3.1 2.8 3.4 2.6 Change, month to month 2018: Jan r ��������� Feb r ��������� Mar r �������� Apr r ��������� May r �������� June r ������� July r �������� Aug r ��������� Sept r �������� Oct r ���������� Nov r ��������� Dec r ��������� 2019: Jan ����������� 0.4 .3 .3 .1 .4 .3 .1 .0 .1 .5 .1 –.1 –.1 0.4 .2 .4 .0 .8 .1 .1 .1 –.1 .5 –.5 –.3 –.8 0.1 –.5 1.9 –1.1 .3 –1.2 –.1 –.5 –.1 .7 1.3 2.6 –1.7 1.6 .4 –.9 .3 3.1 1.1 –.4 .1 –.7 2.5 –5.1 –4.3 –3.8 0.3 .3 .3 .3 .3 .2 .3 .2 .1 –.1 .3 .1 .3 0.3 .3 .3 .2 .3 .3 .1 .0 .2 .6 .3 .0 .3 0.3 .1 .0 .3 .5 .5 –.3 –.3 –.3 1.5 .4 –.1 .8 0.1 1.0 .5 .5 .6 .8 .5 .0 1.3 .0 1.0 .0 .5 0.5 .2 .3 .1 .2 .3 .2 .2 .3 .2 .2 .0 .0 0.5 .3 .3 .2 .3 .2 .3 .2 .3 .1 .3 .0 .2 3.5 –.1 1.1 .5 –.3 .6 –1.9 –2.6 –1.0 –.5 2.3 1.5 –1.9 0.3 .3 .3 .3 .3 .2 .4 .0 .3 .5 .2 .1 .2 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.0 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.0 4.3 4.4 4.4 3.9 3.4 3.6 2.2 1.7 .5 2.2 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.8 1 Includes final demand construction, not shown separately. Note: Data revised to reflect annual revisions. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] All items less food and energy Period All items 1 Total 1 Shelter Medical care 2 Apparel Food New vehicles Total 1 At home Addendum: All items, percent change (annual rate) Energy Away from home Total 1, 2 Gasoline C-CPI-U (NSA) 3 From previous quarter 4 From 3 months earlier From 6 months earlier From year earlier (NSA) Change, December to December, NSA 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2018 �������������������� 2.7 1.5 3.0 1.7 1.5 .8 .7 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.8 .8 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.6 2.1 2.2 1.8 2.2 0.3 .4 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.9 3.2 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.2 2.0 3.0 2.6 4.1 1.8 2.0 1.9 –1.1 4.6 1.8 .6 –2.0 –.9 –.1 –1.6 –.1 2018: Jan r ��������� Feb r ��������� Mar r �������� Apr r ��������� May r �������� June r ������� July r �������� Aug r ��������� Sept r �������� Oct r ���������� Nov r ��������� Dec r ��������� 2019: Jan ����������� 0.4 .2 .1 .2 .3 .2 .2 .1 .1 .3 .0 .0 .0 0.3 .2 .2 .1 .2 .2 .2 .1 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 0.3 .2 .3 .3 .3 .2 .3 .3 .2 .2 .3 .3 .3 0.3 .0 .3 .1 .1 .4 –.1 –.1 .2 .2 .4 .3 .2 1.1 1.2 –.5 .0 .1 –.7 –.3 –1.3 .9 .2 –.6 .0 1.1 4.9 –.2 3.2 1.6 .4 .5 .2 .3 –.5 –.3 –0.5 1.5 4.7 1.8 1.1 3.4 .8 –.2 1.6 1.6 –2.4 1.7 6.0 1.3 .4 3.7 –.4 –2.0 .9 .6 1.9 1.3 2.9 2.5 2.1 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.8 18.2 7.7 6.6 .5 .5 –10.6 –12.6 5.4 6.9 –.3 53.5 13.8 9.9 1.7 –1.0 –21.0 –19.7 9.1 10.7 –2.1 2.5 1.3 2.9 1.5 1.3 .5 .4 1.8 1.7 r 1.7 ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� �������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� –0.4 1.6 3.2 2.1 1.5 1.6 .1 1.3 2.1 2.4 0.1 –.1 .1 .2 –.1 .1 .2 .0 –.1 –.1 .1 .3 .1 0.4 .2 .1 .2 .3 .2 .1 .2 .2 .1 .3 .4 .3 1.6 .6 –1.4 .9 1.5 .6 .0 .5 –1.0 2.1 –2.8 –2.6 –3.1 2.8 .4 –2.5 1.8 2.9 1.7 .2 .5 –1.2 2.7 –5.2 –5.8 –5.5 0.5 .4 .2 .4 .4 .1 .0 .0 .1 .2 –.3 –.3 .2 ������������� ������������� 3.2 ������������� ������������� 2.1 ������������� ������������� 2.0 ������������� ������������� 1.5 ������������� 3.8 3.3 2.6 1.7 2.1 2.6 2.7 2.0 1.4 1.9 1.4 1.1 –.2 3.7 3.3 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.3 1.7 1.3 .9 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.3 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.6 Change, month to month –0.1 –.5 .0 –.4 .4 .4 .1 .0 .0 –.2 .0 .0 .2 0.2 .1 .1 .2 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .0 .2 .3 .2 1 Includes other items not shown separately. 2 Commodities and services. 3 Chained consumer price index (C-CPI-U) reflects the effect of substitution that consumers make across item categories in response to changes in relative prices. 4 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. Note: Data revised to reflect annual revisions. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 24 Prices Received and Paid by Farmers In January, prices received by farmers fell 4.5 percent and prices paid by farmers rose 0.1 percent. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) INDEX, 2011=100 (RATIO SCALE) 130 INDEX, 2011=100 (RATIO SCALE) 130 120 120 PRICES PAID 110 110 100 100 90 90 PRICES RECEIVED 80 80 70 70 60 60 RATIO1 RATIO1 140 140 120 120 RATIO 100 100 80 80 60 60 2011 2013 2012 2014 2015 2017 2016 2019 2018 1 RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [2011=100; not seasonally adjusted] Prices received by farmers 1 Period 2009 ��������������������������������������������������� 2010 ��������������������������������������������������� 2011 ��������������������������������������������������� 2012 ��������������������������������������������������� 2013 ��������������������������������������������������� 2014 ��������������������������������������������������� 2015 ��������������������������������������������������� 2016 r ������������������������������������������������� 2017 r ������������������������������������������������� 2018 p ������������������������������������������������� 2018: Jan ������������������������������������������ Feb r ���������������������������������������� Mar r ��������������������������������������� Apr r ���������������������������������������� May r ��������������������������������������� June r �������������������������������������� July r ��������������������������������������� Aug r ���������������������������������������� Sept r ��������������������������������������� Oct r ����������������������������������������� Nov ����������������������������������������� Dec p ��������������������������������������� 2019: Jan p ���������������������������������������� Agricultural production 80.6 86.8 100.0 105.0 107.0 107.9 99.2 90.1 92.9 90.4 85.5 91.0 95.1 92.9 94.7 95.1 91.3 88.6 87.2 84.5 87.7 88.9 84.9 Crop production 85.7 87.0 100.0 107.0 105.7 92.3 87.0 85.3 85.3 85.8 77.6 86.6 87.9 88.3 88.9 90.2 86.3 87.7 85.9 79.1 83.0 85.5 76.3 Chart 25 - Jan/Feb 2019 Prices paid by farmers Livestock production 73.8 85.7 100.0 102.5 108.5 128.7 113.4 94.4 99.9 94.2 94.5 94.2 99.8 95.8 98.3 98.5 95.4 89.3 88.3 91.3 92.4 92.0 97.9 All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates (PPITW) 2 87.3 90.0 100.0 104.4 106.3 112.0 110.7 105.9 106.6 108.9 108.2 109.0 109.0 108.6 109.0 108.7 108.8 108.9 108.8 109.4 109.0 109.2 109.3 Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates (PITW) 86.4 89.0 100.0 104.8 106.7 113.1 111.6 105.8 106.2 108.5 107.9 108.7 108.7 108.2 108.6 108.2 108.3 108.4 108.3 108.9 108.5 108.8 108.9 Production items 84.8 87.7 100.0 105.4 107.4 114.1 112.0 104.7 104.5 106.0 105.4 106.3 106.3 106.1 106.5 106.1 105.7 105.8 105.7 106.3 105.8 106.1 106.2 Ratio of prices received by farmers to PPITW 92 96 100 100 100 96 90 84 87 83 80 83 87 85 87 87 83 82 80 78 81 82 78 1 Annual indexes for 2011 forward reflect revised methodology. See Agricultural Price Program Update, January 2015 for details. 2 Includes items not shown separately. Note: These indexes are also available on a 1910-14=100 basis, as required by statute. Source: Department of Agriculture (National Agricultural Statistics Service). 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock and Debt Measures In January, M2 rose. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 14,800 14,000 13,200 12,400 11,600 14,800 14,000 13,200 12,400 11,600 10,800 10,000 10,800 10,000 M2 9,200 9,200 8,400 8,400 7,600 7,600 6,800 6,800 6,000 6,000 5,200 5,200 4,400 4,400 3,600 3,600 M1 3,200 3,200 2,800 2,800 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 *AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 2019 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures, except debt end-of-period basis; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period 2009: Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2010: Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2011: Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2012: Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2013: Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2014: Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2015: Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2016: Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2017: Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2018: Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2018: Jan r ���������������������������������������� Feb r ���������������������������������������� Mar r ��������������������������������������� Apr r ���������������������������������������� May r ��������������������������������������� June r �������������������������������������� July r ��������������������������������������� Aug r ���������������������������������������� Sept r ��������������������������������������� Oct r ����������������������������������������� Nov r ���������������������������������������� Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2019: Jan p ���������������������������������������� M1 M2 Debt Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers checks, and other checkable deposits M1 plus savings deposits, retail MMMF balances, and small time deposits 1 Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors 2 1,691.9 1,835.8 2,163.5 2,460.6 2,664.4 2,940.7 3,094.9 3,342.4 3,612.0 3,744.0 3,653.2 3,622.5 3,656.4 3,660.3 3,654.7 3,655.0 3,676.9 3,679.8 3,703.5 3,718.7 3,695.2 3,744.0 3,737.4 8,483.4 8,789.1 9,650.9 10,445.6 11,015.7 11,670.1 12,335.9 13,209.6 13,851.9 14,387.7 13,867.7 13,890.4 13,941.1 13,974.1 14,035.2 14,107.5 14,148.5 14,190.4 14,224.9 14,250.9 14,276.5 14,387.7 14,465.9 36,122.7 37,488.6 38,698.6 40,390.1 41,809.9 43,470.7 45,201.6 47,205.2 49,271.7 51,795.7 ��������������������������������������������� ��������������������������������������������� 50,033.3 ��������������������������������������������� ��������������������������������������������� 50,881.1 ��������������������������������������������� ��������������������������������������������� 51,452.9 ��������������������������������������������� ��������������������������������������������� 51,795.7 ��������������������������������������������� Chart 26 - Jan/Feb 2019 Percent change From previous period 4 From year or 6 months earlier 3 M1 M2 5.7 8.5 17.9 13.7 8.3 10.4 5.2 8.0 8.1 3.7 5.8 2.3 4.6 3.0 1.3 2.4 1.3 3.2 2.6 3.2 2.2 4.9 3.3 Debt 3.7 3.6 9.8 8.2 5.5 5.9 5.7 7.1 4.9 3.9 3.7 3.2 3.3 2.8 3.3 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.4 4.0 4.5 3.7 4.3 3.6 4.8 3.8 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.1 4.5 ������������������������������� ������������������������������� 6.2 ������������������������������� ������������������������������� 4.3 ������������������������������� ������������������������������� 4.5 ������������������������������� ������������������������������� 2.7 ������������������������������� 1 Money market mutual fund (MMMF). Savings deposits include money market deposit accounts (MMDA). 2 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. Quarterly data shown in last month of quarter. End-of-year data are for fourth quarter. 3 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a simple annual rate. 4 Debt growth of domestic nonfinancial sectors is the seasonally adjusted borrowing flow divided by the seasonally adjusted level of debt outstanding in the previous period. Annual changes are from fourth quarter to fourth quarter; quarterly changes are from previous quarter at an annual rate. Note: See p. 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 26 Components of Money Stock [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period 2009: Dec r ��������� 2010: Dec r ��������� 2011: Dec r ��������� 2012: Dec r ��������� 2013: Dec r ��������� 2014: Dec r ��������� 2015: Dec r ��������� 2016: Dec r ��������� 2017: Dec r ��������� 2018: Dec r ��������� 2018: Jan r ��������� Feb r ��������� Mar r �������� Apr r ��������� May r �������� June r ������� July r �������� Aug r ��������� Sept r �������� Oct r ���������� Nov r ��������� Dec r ��������� 2019: Jan p ��������� Currency Nonbank travelers checks Other checkable deposits (OCDs) Demand deposits At commercial banks Total 863.7 5.1 918.9 4.7 1,001.6 4.3 1,090.7 3.8 1,160.7 3.5 1,253.3 2.9 1,339.8 2.5 1,421.6 2.2 1,526.3 1.9 1,626.6 1.7 1,537.1 1.9 1,542.0 1.9 1,550.6 1.9 1,559.7 1.8 1,569.8 1.8 1,580.2 1.8 1,589.2 1.8 1,597.9 1.8 1,608.7 1.7 1,614.9 1.7 1,620.9 1.7 1,626.6 1.7 1,632.7 ��������������� 445.9 516.5 751.3 926.8 1,033.9 1,199.6 1,237.8 1,371.0 1,489.3 1,488.3 1,512.3 1,479.2 1,500.0 1,488.9 1,470.3 1,460.7 1,469.1 1,458.2 1,469.4 1,466.8 1,445.4 1,488.3 1,474.9 377.1 395.8 406.3 439.3 466.3 484.9 514.8 547.6 594.6 627.4 601.9 599.5 604.0 609.9 612.7 612.4 616.8 622.0 623.6 635.2 627.3 627.4 629.7 At thrift institutions 229.9 234.1 231.6 243.5 255.7 265.2 276.4 288.8 306.8 333.2 314.2 312.7 314.0 317.5 322.1 318.7 323.6 328.2 328.9 339.3 334.2 333.2 345.3 147.2 161.7 174.7 195.8 210.5 219.7 238.4 258.9 287.8 294.2 287.7 286.7 290.0 292.4 290.6 293.8 293.2 293.8 294.8 295.9 293.1 294.2 284.4 Savings deposits (including MMDAs) Small-denomination time deposits 1 At commercial banks At commercial banks Total 4,812.9 5,332.4 6,034.3 6,683.9 7,129.1 7,575.2 8,175.5 8,824.2 9,124.4 9,279.9 9,095.0 9,134.1 9,137.0 9,146.0 9,184.4 9,232.8 9,232.7 9,252.8 9,240.8 9,226.1 9,245.6 9,279.9 9,306.0 3,979.7 4,413.1 5,038.2 5,728.0 6,108.9 6,497.7 7,031.4 7,564.3 7,825.1 7,942.0 7,785.8 7,813.9 7,796.6 7,836.9 7,859.3 7,907.4 7,904.4 7,921.7 7,911.6 7,893.5 7,917.1 7,942.0 7,972.3 At thrift institutions 833.2 919.4 996.1 955.9 1,020.2 1,077.5 1,144.1 1,259.9 1,299.3 1,337.9 1,309.2 1,320.2 1,340.4 1,309.1 1,325.1 1,325.4 1,328.4 1,331.1 1,329.2 1,332.6 1,328.5 1,337.9 1,333.7 Total 1,187.6 934.4 776.9 645.8 570.2 522.8 412.0 351.5 411.3 546.1 417.2 422.8 432.2 443.3 455.1 467.5 478.5 489.5 501.5 512.8 528.8 546.1 566.0 868.6 663.9 548.3 469.0 425.7 390.9 301.7 250.2 300.4 433.9 307.5 315.9 327.1 343.4 353.6 364.8 374.7 384.7 396.6 406.3 419.2 433.9 452.9 Retail money funds At thrift institutions 319.0 270.5 228.6 176.8 144.4 131.9 110.3 101.3 110.9 112.2 109.6 106.9 105.2 100.0 101.5 102.7 103.8 104.8 105.0 106.5 109.5 112.2 113.1 791.0 686.5 676.2 655.4 652.0 631.3 653.5 691.5 704.2 817.7 702.3 711.1 715.5 724.4 741.1 752.2 760.4 768.3 779.1 793.2 806.9 817.7 856.5 Institutional money funds 2 2,246.6 1,885.3 1,751.4 1,730.5 1,764.8 1,793.4 1,821.9 1,740.9 1,827.1 1,857.5 1,834.9 1,838.5 1,850.5 1,864.6 1,859.2 1,874.8 1,872.1 1,861.0 1,866.4 1,852.0 1,856.7 1,857.5 1,879.4 1 Small-denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000. 2 Institutional money funds are not part of non-M1 M2. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base [Averages of daily figures 1; millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted] Reserves of depository institutions Reserve balances maintained Period Total 2009: Dec ������������ 2010: Dec ������������ 2011: Dec ������������ 2012: Dec ������������ 2013: Dec ������������ 2014: Dec ������������ 2015: Dec ������������ 2016: Dec ������������ 2017: Dec ������������ 2018: Dec r ���������� 2018: Jan ������������ Feb ������������ Mar ����������� Apr ������������ May ����������� June ���������� July ����������� Aug r ���������� Sept r ��������� Oct r ����������� Nov r ���������� Dec r ���������� 2019: Jan p ���������� 1,099,831 1,035,074 1,550,043 1,517,425 2,485,248 2,606,700 2,419,774 2,031,007 2,244,274 1,691,394 2,214,601 2,238,775 2,167,009 2,086,192 2,022,453 1,988,224 1,949,820 1,911,165 1,873,866 1,830,017 1,775,291 1,691,394 1,639,030 To satisfy reserve balance requirements 2 That exceed the top of the penalty-free band ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ 75,713 90,852 97,981 116,285 135,719 135,698 138,807 135,786 131,778 138,481 140,316 137,568 137,861 135,544 138,965 135,731 138,700 135,698 143,615 ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ 2,409,535 2,515,848 2,321,793 1,914,722 2,108,555 1,555,696 2,075,794 2,102,989 2,035,232 1,947,710 1,882,137 1,850,656 1,811,960 1,775,621 1,734,901 1,694,286 1,636,591 1,555,696 1,495,414 Reserve balance requirements 3 24,632 28,438 47,838 58,675 69,030 82,770 89,313 105,944 123,720 123,703 126,792 124,006 120,285 126,415 128,144 125,503 125,736 123,620 126,756 123,821 126,537 123,703 131,130 Borrowings from the Federal Reserve Vault cash used to satisfy required reserves 40,619 42,927 48,672 52,959 55,771 59,236 61,413 64,280 65,549 68,462 66,417 66,481 63,866 64,855 64,124 64,525 64,792 64,929 64,145 65,781 65,537 68,462 68,226 Nonborrowed 4 970,523 1,032,512 1,589,189 1,569,588 2,540,849 2,665,835 2,481,082 2,095,247 2,309,747 1,759,780 2,280,960 2,305,236 2,230,859 2,150,996 2,086,483 2,052,605 2,014,388 1,975,833 1,937,721 1,895,589 1,840,731 1,759,780 1,707,230 Monetary base 5 2,026,220 2,017,000 2,619,586 2,675,945 3,717,450 3,934,455 3,835,810 3,531,565 3,850,969 3,400,747 3,824,795 3,855,056 3,800,608 3,727,119 3,674,755 3,650,485 3,618,272 3,584,450 3,559,828 3,520,863 3,476,330 3,400,747 3,346,896 Total 6 169,927 45,488 9,526 795 170 102 106 39 75 76 58 20 16 51 94 143 224 261 290 209 97 76 26 Primary Secondary 19,025 41 103 12 13 22 38 13 43 18 51 7 4 16 25 17 20 18 38 21 11 18 20 518 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Seasonal 37 26 23 23 59 80 67 25 33 58 7 14 12 35 69 126 203 243 252 189 86 58 6 Term assetbacked securities loan facility 7 46,310 25,025 9,400 760 98 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Data are prorated averages of biweekly (maintenance period) averages of daily figures. 2 Equals the sum of balances maintained up to the top of each institution’s penalty-free band. 3 Excludes vault cash used to satisfy required reserves. 4 Total reserve balances maintained plus vault cash used to satisfy required reserves less total borrowings from the Federal Reserve. 5 Equals total balances maintained plus currency in circulation (not shown). 6 Includes term auction credit (December 2007 to April 2010), primary dealer and other broker-dealer credit (March 2008 to February 2010), credit extended to American International Group, Inc. (September 2008 to January 2011), asset-backed commercial paper money market mutual fund liquidity facility (September 2008 to February 2010), and other credit extensions, not shown separately. 7 Includes credit extended by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to eligible borrowers through the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility. Note: Data reflect the creation of a penalty-free band around reserve balance requirements which took effect June 27, 2013. See H.3 release of July 11, 2013. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks Total commercial bank loans and leases rose 0.5 percent in January. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 14,000 ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 12,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 14,000 12,000 TOTAL 10,000 9,000 8,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 7,000 LOANS AND LEASES 6,000 6,000 5,000 5,000 4,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 U.S. TREASURY AND AGENCY SECURITIES 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 800 800 OTHER SECURITIES 400 400 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 2019 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1] Securities in bank credit 2 Period 2009: Dec r ��������� 2010: Dec r ��������� 2011: Dec r ��������� 2012: Dec r ��������� 2013: Dec r ��������� 2014: Dec r ��������� 2015: Dec r ��������� 2016: Dec r ��������� 2017: Dec r ��������� 2018: Dec r ��������� 2018: Jan r ��������� Feb r ��������� Mar r �������� Apr r ��������� May r �������� June r ������� July r �������� Aug r ��������� Sept r �������� Oct r ���������� Nov r ��������� Dec r ��������� 2019: Jan p ��������� Total bank credit 8,783.2 8,983.0 9,108.1 9,626.2 9,827.5 10,539.5 11,343.8 12,095.1 12,548.2 13,076.8 12,565.4 12,564.5 12,589.9 12,655.2 12,676.3 12,753.6 12,797.6 12,817.2 12,846.0 12,891.8 12,952.9 13,076.8 13,170.6 Total securities 2,326.1 2,427.0 2,493.5 2,733.7 2,721.6 2,932.1 3,110.9 3,316.9 3,436.9 3,499.0 3,431.0 3,401.2 3,385.6 3,370.2 3,376.7 3,410.0 3,420.3 3,422.5 3,419.1 3,425.1 3,447.4 3,499.0 3,541.6 U.S. Treasury and agency securities 1,446.4 1,641.1 1,699.2 1,872.8 1,809.3 2,040.9 2,226.8 2,413.7 2,527.7 2,672.3 2,521.2 2,500.6 2,499.1 2,504.7 2,518.0 2,546.0 2,556.9 2,562.4 2,565.3 2,572.8 2,602.1 2,672.3 2,715.7 Loans and leases in bank credit Other securities 879.7 785.9 794.3 860.9 912.3 891.3 884.2 903.2 909.2 826.7 909.8 900.6 886.4 865.6 858.7 864.0 863.5 860.2 853.8 852.3 845.3 826.7 825.9 Total loans and leases 3 6,457.1 6,556.0 6,614.7 6,892.5 7,105.9 7,607.3 8,232.8 8,778.1 9,111.3 9,577.8 9,134.4 9,163.2 9,204.4 9,285.0 9,299.6 9,343.6 9,377.3 9,394.7 9,426.9 9,466.7 9,505.4 9,577.8 9,629.0 Commercial and industrial loans 1,265.3 1,192.4 1,303.8 1,474.4 1,574.3 1,773.4 1,953.2 2,092.0 2,112.5 2,313.4 2,118.2 2,120.0 2,137.6 2,181.2 2,184.4 2,202.8 2,220.1 2,220.8 2,226.3 2,245.5 2,276.7 2,313.4 2,336.6 Chart 28 - Jan/Feb 2019 Real estate loans Total 4 3,776.9 3,613.5 3,495.0 3,550.7 3,531.9 3,638.8 3,871.9 4,119.7 4,289.6 4,413.0 4,301.9 4,316.3 4,331.1 4,343.3 4,340.1 4,352.2 4,363.3 4,371.6 4,392.1 4,404.3 4,404.9 4,413.0 4,423.9 Revolving home equity loans 603.2 581.6 549.6 515.3 473.7 457.8 440.6 410.7 381.2 348.5 378.8 376.1 372.9 369.9 365.8 362.6 359.9 357.2 354.8 352.8 350.4 348.5 349.1 Commercial loans 1,640.9 1,500.5 1,418.3 1,428.3 1,498.3 1,605.5 1,781.7 1,965.0 2,087.6 2,186.7 2,095.6 2,105.3 2,114.9 2,122.9 2,132.3 2,142.7 2,148.4 2,154.2 2,165.9 2,177.7 2,182.1 2,186.7 2,192.1 Consumer loans 5 835.8 1,107.3 1,086.3 1,102.6 1,128.0 1,186.5 1,258.4 1,354.8 1,425.7 1,494.2 1,430.3 1,435.1 1,441.3 1,460.3 1,464.7 1,470.0 1,473.5 1,477.6 1,482.3 1,490.0 1,494.2 1,494.2 1,499.0 All other loans and leases 6 579.2 642.7 729.6 764.6 871.7 1,008.6 1,149.4 1,211.7 1,283.5 1,357.2 1,283.9 1,291.8 1,294.5 1,300.1 1,310.3 1,318.5 1,320.4 1,324.7 1,326.2 1,326.9 1,329.7 1,357.2 1,369.5 1 Data are prorated averages of Wednesday values for domestically chartered commercial banks, branches and agencies of foreign banks, and Edge Act and agreement corporations. 2 Includes securities held in trading accounts, held-to-maturity, and available-for-sale. Excludes all non-security trading assets, such as derivatives with a positive fair value or loans held in trading accounts. 3 Excludes unearned income. Includes the allowance for loan and lease losses. Excludes Federal funds sold to, reverse repurchase agreements (RPs) with, and loans to commercial banks in the United States. Includes all loans held in trading accounts under a fair value option. 4 Includes closed-end residential loans, not shown separately. 5 Includes credit cards and other consumer loans. 6 Includes other items, not shown separately. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 28 Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses External (Net increase in liabilities) Funds raised in markets Period Total 2009 r ������������������ 2010 r ������������������ 2011 r ������������������ 2012 r ������������������ 2013 r ������������������ 2014 r ������������������ 2015 r ������������������ 2016 r ������������������ 2017 r ������������������ 2018 p ������������������ 2016: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2017: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV r ������������ 2018: I r �������������� II r ������������� III r ������������ IV p ����������� Internal 1 1,201.9 2,180.6 2,666.8 2,805.5 2,851.3 3,322.8 3,356.4 3,234.2 2,952.1 2,807.7 2,816.2 4,122.1 3,211.9 2,786.6 2,460.4 2,864.8 3,408.6 3,074.5 2,672.6 2,356.5 3,233.9 2,967.9 1,450.8 1,693.3 1,772.9 1,820.6 1,925.5 1,941.3 1,943.4 1,849.0 1,774.4 2,273.9 1,925.3 1,835.7 1,815.6 1,819.4 1,887.2 1,921.8 2,049.1 1,239.5 2,262.5 2,241.6 2,302.8 2,288.6 Total net funds raised Total –248.9 487.3 893.9 984.9 925.8 1,381.5 1,413.0 1,385.2 1,177.7 533.8 890.9 2,286.4 1,396.3 967.2 573.2 943.0 1,359.5 1,835.0 410.1 114.9 931.1 679.3 –373.1 –312.9 –133.0 –4.4 36.4 30.6 33.9 –169.2 196.3 –238.9 222.1 –328.9 –184.7 –385.2 257.1 427.5 183.4 –82.9 –192.1 –648.6 205.8 –320.8 Net new equity issues –51.2 –250.7 –454.6 –344.9 –352.9 –394.5 –549.6 –576.8 –319.3 –513.5 –617.9 –638.6 –672.2 –378.4 –359.3 –220.5 –474.4 –223.0 –396.7 –810.4 –191.1 –656.0 Credit market instruments Total Securities and mortgages Loans and short-term paper 140.4 106.1 81.3 205.2 264.5 247.3 487.8 337.8 322.4 166.9 565.4 396.6 419.9 –30.9 466.9 286.5 348.9 187.3 236.4 94.9 189.4 147.0 –462.5 –168.4 240.3 135.3 124.8 177.8 95.7 69.9 193.3 107.6 274.5 –86.9 67.4 24.1 149.5 361.5 309.0 –47.2 –31.9 67.0 207.3 188.1 –322.0 –62.3 321.6 340.5 389.3 425.1 583.5 407.6 515.6 274.6 840.0 309.7 487.4 –6.8 616.4 648.0 657.9 140.1 204.6 161.8 396.8 335.2 Other 2 12.2 638.6 828.1 800.0 702.3 1,166.1 966.4 1,145.9 733.0 512.5 273.4 2,007.2 1,176.6 1,126.6 –4.2 249.3 933.7 1,753.2 405.4 789.5 288.5 566.2 Total 1,274.4 1,872.4 1,920.0 2,039.7 2,509.6 2,664.3 3,414.2 3,190.2 2,858.2 2,440.4 2,486.5 4,080.7 3,314.4 2,879.1 2,370.0 2,831.0 3,142.2 3,089.4 2,692.7 1,818.7 2,488.8 2,761.1 Capital expenditures 3 1,077.2 1,300.4 1,425.0 1,611.3 1,676.0 1,818.7 1,915.7 1,770.1 1,889.8 2,075.9 1,774.4 1,779.3 1,742.4 1,784.1 1,827.5 1,865.3 1,938.8 1,927.4 1,998.9 2,009.1 2,121.3 2,174.2 Increase in financial assets 197.2 572.0 495.0 428.4 833.6 845.6 1,498.5 1,420.1 968.4 364.5 712.1 2,301.4 1,572.0 1,095.0 542.5 965.7 1,203.4 1,162.0 693.8 –190.4 367.5 586.9 Discrepancy (sources less uses) –72.5 308.3 746.8 765.9 341.8 658.5 –57.8 44.0 93.9 367.4 329.6 41.4 –102.5 –92.4 90.4 33.8 266.5 –14.9 –20.2 537.8 745.0 206.8 1 Profits before tax (book) less taxes on corporate income, less net dividends, plus capital consumption allowance (consumption of fixed capital plus capital consumption adjustment), foreign earnings retained abroad, inventory valuation adjustment, and net capital transfers. 2 Includes trade payables, taxes payable, and miscellaneous liabilities (foreign direct investment in the U.S., pension fund contributions payable, and other). 3 Nonresidential fixed investment plus residential fixed investment, inventory change with inventory valuation adjustment, and nonproduced nonfinancial assets. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Consumer Credit [Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Net change in consumer credit outstanding 1 Consumer credit outstanding (end of period) Period Total 2009: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2010: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2011: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2012: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2013: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2014: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2015: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2016: Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2017: Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2018: Dec p ��������������������������������������� 2018: Jan r ���������������������������������������� Feb r ���������������������������������������� Mar r ��������������������������������������� Apr r ���������������������������������������� May r ��������������������������������������� June r �������������������������������������� July r ��������������������������������������� Aug r ���������������������������������������� Sept r ��������������������������������������� Oct r ����������������������������������������� Nov r ���������������������������������������� Dec p ��������������������������������������� 2019: Jan p ���������������������������������������� Nonrevolving 2 Revolving 2,555.0 2,646.8 2,757.1 2,918.3 3,093.4 3,314.6 3,413.6 3,647.2 3,831.2 4,017.9 3,843.4 3,854.3 3,862.5 3,863.8 3,886.2 3,891.0 3,917.4 3,942.3 3,956.9 3,981.5 4,002.5 4,017.9 4,034.9 916.1 839.1 840.6 844.3 855.6 889.1 907.9 969.4 1,024.0 1,055.5 1,025.2 1,025.2 1,023.5 1,014.9 1,023.5 1,022.5 1,032.1 1,037.9 1,039.7 1,049.7 1,054.5 1,055.5 1,058.0 1,638.9 1,807.7 1,916.4 2,074.0 2,237.8 2,425.4 2,505.7 2,677.8 2,807.1 2,962.4 2,818.2 2,829.1 2,839.0 2,848.9 2,862.8 2,868.4 2,885.3 2,904.4 2,917.1 2,931.8 2,948.0 2,962.4 2,976.9 Total Nonrevolving 2 Revolving –88.8 91.8 110.3 161.2 175.1 221.2 99.0 233.6 184.0 186.7 12.2 10.9 8.2 1.3 22.4 4.8 26.4 24.9 14.6 24.6 21.0 15.4 17.0 –87.9 –77.0 1.5 3.7 11.3 33.5 18.8 61.5 54.6 31.5 1.2 .0 –1.7 –8.6 8.6 –1.0 9.6 5.8 1.8 10.0 4.8 1.0 2.5 –0.9 168.8 108.7 157.6 163.8 187.6 80.3 172.1 129.3 155.3 11.1 10.9 9.9 9.9 13.9 5.6 16.9 19.1 12.7 14.7 16.2 14.4 14.5 1 Change based on data in billions of dollars as shown here. For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month. 2 Includes automobile loans and all other loans not included in revolving credit, such as loans for mobile homes, education, boats, trailers, or vacations. These loans may be secured or unsecured. Note: Data include student loans extended by the Federal Government and by SLM Holding Corporation. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 Interest Rates and Bond Yields Interest rates were mixed in February. PERCENT PER ANNUM 10 PERCENT PER ANNUM 10 8 8 6 6 CORPORATE Aaa BONDS (MOODY'S) 4 4 2 2 FEDERAL FUNDS RATE TREASURY BILLS 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0 2018 SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW 2019 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] Chart 30 - Jan/Feb 2019 U.S. Treasury security yields Period 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2018 �������������������� 2018: Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2019: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Week ended: 2019: Feb 9 ������� 16 ������� 23 ������� Mar 2 ������� 9 ������� 3-month bills (at auction) 1 Constant maturities 2 3-year 10-year 30-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor’s) 3 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody’s) Discount window primary credit (N.Y. F.R. Bank) 4 Prime rate charged by banks 4 Federal funds rate 5 New-home mortgage yields (FHFA) 6 0.16 .14 .06 .09 .06 .03 .06 .33 .94 1.94 1.53 1.70 1.76 1.87 1.91 1.96 2.03 2.13 2.24 2.34 2.38 2.41 2.40 1.43 1.11 .75 .38 .54 .90 1.02 1.00 1.58 2.63 2.36 2.42 2.52 2.66 2.65 2.70 2.71 2.84 2.94 2.91 2.67 2.52 2.48 3.26 3.22 2.78 1.80 2.35 2.54 2.14 1.84 2.33 2.91 2.86 2.84 2.87 2.98 2.91 2.89 2.89 3.00 3.15 3.12 2.83 2.71 2.68 4.08 4.25 3.91 2.92 3.45 3.34 2.84 2.59 2.89 3.11 3.13 3.09 3.07 3.13 3.05 3.01 3.04 3.15 3.34 3.36 3.10 3.04 3.02 4.64 4.16 4.29 3.14 3.96 3.78 3.48 3.07 3.36 3.53 3.54 3.58 3.55 3.38 3.15 3.45 3.58 3.63 3.88 3.64 3.69 3.61 3.57 5.31 4.94 4.64 3.67 4.24 4.16 3.89 3.67 3.74 3.93 3.82 3.87 3.85 4.00 3.96 3.87 3.88 3.98 4.14 4.22 4.02 3.93 3.79 0.50 .72 .75 .75 .75 .75 .76 1.01 1.60 2.41 2.00 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.75 2.75 2.75 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.26 3.51 4.10 4.91 4.50 4.75 4.75 4.75 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.50 5.50 5.50 0.16 5.14 .18 4.80 .10 4.56 .14 3.69 .11 4.00 .09 4.22 .13 4.01 .39 3.76 1.00 3.97 1.83 4.53 1.42 4.15 1.51 4.33 1.69 4.52 1.70 4.55 1.82 4.58 1.91 4.62 1.91 4.57 1.95 4.64 2.19 4.67 2.20 4.77 2.27 4.84 2.40 4.76 2.40 ������������������������� 2.39 2.40 2.40 2.41 2.41 2.48 2.49 2.47 2.49 2.48 2.68 2.67 2.66 2.70 2.68 3.02 3.01 3.02 3.07 3.05 3.61 3.59 3.55 3.53 3.55 3.78 3.77 3.78 3.84 3.85 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 ������������������������� ������������������������� ������������������������� ������������������������� ������������������������� 1 High bill rate at auction, issue date within period, bank-discount basis. Data are stop yields from uniform-price auctions. 2 Yields on actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Average effective rate for year; rate in effect at end of month or week. 5 Beginning March 1, 2016, the daily effective federal funds rate is a volume-weighted median of transaction-level data collected from depository institutions in the Report of Selected Money Market Rates (FR 2420). Prior to that date, the daily effective rate was a volume-weighted mean of rates on brokered trades. 6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Moody’s Investors Service, Bloomberg, and Standard & Poor’s. 30 Common Stock Prices and Yields Stock prices rose in February. INDEX, DEC. 31, 2002=5,000 (RATIO SCALE) 15,000 14,000 13,000 INDEX, DEC. 31, 2002=5,000 (RATIO SCALE) 15,000 14,000 13,000 COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX (NYSE) 12,000 12,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 10,000 9,000 9,000 8,000 8,000 7,000 7,000 6,000 6,000 5,000 2011 2012 2014 2013 2015 5,000 2016 2017 2018 PERCENT 20 2019 PERCENT 20 15 15 EARNINGS/PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS (S&P) 10 10 5 5 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017 2016 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, STANDARD AND POOR'S, AND BLOOMBERG 2018 2019 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Common stock yields (percent) 6 Common stock prices 1 Chart 31 - Jan/Feb 2019 New York Stock Exchange indexes (December 31, 2002=5,000) 2 Period Composite 2009 ��������������������� 2010 ��������������������� 2011 ��������������������� 2012 ��������������������� 2013 ��������������������� 2014 ��������������������� 2015 ��������������������� 2016 ��������������������� 2017 ��������������������� 2018 ��������������������� 2018: Feb ������������ Mar ����������� Apr ������������ May ����������� June ���������� July ����������� Aug ����������� Sept ���������� Oct ������������ Nov ����������� Dec ������������ 2019: Jan ������������ Feb ������������ Week ended: 2019: Feb 9 �������� 16 �������� 23 �������� Mar 2 �������� 9 �������� Financial Energy Health Care Dow Jones industrial average 3 Standard & Poor’s composite index (1941–43=10) 4 Nasdaq composite index (Feb. 5, 1971=100) 5 Dividend/price ratio Earnings/price ratio 6,091.02 7,230.42 7,871.41 8,011.65 9,426.77 10,653.17 10,676.70 10,380.08 11,843.74 12,647.54 12,752.00 12,615.26 12,535.19 12,631.36 12,663.17 12,775.18 12,949.50 13,056.05 12,537.02 12,345.42 11,624.26 11,879.58 12,511.60 3,987.04 4,744.05 4,641.01 4,616.63 5,805.54 6,448.33 6,559.24 6,124.93 7,509.81 7,963.02 8,271.86 8,190.26 8,011.33 8,043.57 7,930.41 7,972.03 8,095.34 8,083.31 7,675.56 7,647.72 7,108.30 7,353.52 7,699.58 10,020.30 10,943.85 12,880.35 12,512.31 13,490.83 14,598.07 11,332.43 10,204.95 10,699.23 11,440.86 10,915.48 10,756.41 11,490.42 12,182.57 11,978.03 12,143.16 11,861.87 11,865.97 11,623.55 10,686.85 9,737.22 10,051.55 10,526.02 5,456.63 6,230.62 6,847.80 7,503.05 9,250.02 11,195.85 12,718.18 12,182.85 13,366.56 15,054.70 14,425.24 14,311.49 14,188.05 14,312.39 14,587.88 14,984.25 15,673.16 16,043.91 15,829.10 15,965.62 15,388.60 15,227.49 15,862.20 8,876.15 10,662.80 11,966.36 12,967.08 14,999.67 16,773.99 17,590.61 17,908.08 21,741.91 25,045.75 24,981.55 24,582.17 24,304.21 24,572.53 24,790.11 24,978.23 25,629.99 26,232.67 25,609.34 25,258.68 23,805.55 24,157.80 25,605.53 946.73 1,139.31 1,268.89 1,379.56 1,642.51 1,930.67 2,061.20 2,092.39 2,448.22 2,744.68 2,705.16 2,702.77 2,653.63 2,701.49 2,754.35 2,793.64 2,857.82 2,901.50 2,785.46 2,723.23 2,567.31 2,607.39 2,754.86 1,841.03 2,347.70 2,680.42 2,965.77 3,537.69 4,374.31 4,943.49 4,982.49 6,231.28 7,419.27 7,161.77 7,311.51 7,084.14 7,339.33 7,645.14 7,756.86 7,892.23 7,983.31 7,527.08 7,236.08 6,814.29 6,979.66 7,430.08 2.40 1.98 2.05 2.24 2.14 2.04 2.10 2.19 �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� 1.86 6.04 6.77 6.20 5.57 5.25 4.59 4.17 4.22 ���������������������������� ���������������������������� 4.37 ���������������������������� ���������������������������� 4.51 ���������������������������� ���������������������������� r 4.47 ���������������������������� ���������������������������� p 5.34 ���������������������������� ���������������������������� 12,359.22 12,450.98 12,654.58 12,684.42 12,531.66 7,641.07 7,662.72 7,762.41 7,775.52 7,694.47 10,442.10 10,447.25 10,654.10 10,622.57 10,532.43 15,672.49 15,823.14 16,049.84 16,025.95 15,839.24 25,263.41 25,468.96 25,932.05 26,015.48 25,644.64 2,721.62 2,745.78 2,783.00 2,794.11 2,769.18 7,342.29 7,408.45 7,490.77 7,557.23 7,497.89 �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� ���������������������������� ���������������������������� ���������������������������� ���������������������������� ���������������������������� 1 Annual data are averages of monthly figures. Monthly and weekly data are averages of daily closing prices. 2 Includes all the stocks (in 2018, over 2,700) listed on the NYSE. 3 Includes 30 stocks. 4 Includes 500 stocks. 5 Includes over 3,000 stocks in 2018. 6 Standard & Poor’s series. Dividend/price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings/price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones & Company, Inc., Standard & Poor’s, Nasdaq Stock Market, and Bloomberg. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE. Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt In the first four months of fiscal year 2019, the deficit was $310.3 billion, compared with a deficit of $175.7 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4,800 RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS1 4,600 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4,800 4,600 4,400 4,400 4,200 4,200 OUTLAYS1 4,000 4,000 3,800 3,800 3,600 3,600 3,400 3,400 3,200 3,200 3,000 3,000 RECEIPTS1 2,800 2,800 2,600 2,600 2,400 2,400 2,200 2,200 2,000 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,800 1,600 400 SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (–)1 400 0 0 –400 –400 –800 –800 –1,200 –1,200 –1,600 –1,600 –2,000 –2,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 FISCAL YEARS 1 INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Total Fiscal year or period Receipts 2000 ���������������������������������������������������� 2001 ���������������������������������������������������� 2002 ���������������������������������������������������� 2003 ���������������������������������������������������� 2004 ���������������������������������������������������� 2005 ���������������������������������������������������� 2006 ���������������������������������������������������� 2007 ���������������������������������������������������� 2008 ���������������������������������������������������� 2009 ���������������������������������������������������� 2010 ���������������������������������������������������� 2011 ���������������������������������������������������� 2012 ���������������������������������������������������� 2013 ���������������������������������������������������� 2014 ���������������������������������������������������� 2015 ���������������������������������������������������� 2016 ���������������������������������������������������� 2017 ���������������������������������������������������� 2018 1 �������������������������������������������������� 2019 (estimates) ��������������������������������� Cumulative total, first 4 months: 2 Fiscal year 2018 ���������������������������������� Fiscal year 2019 ���������������������������������� Outlays Chart 32 - Oct 2018 On-budget Surplus or deficit (–) Receipts Outlays Federal debt (end of period) Off-budget Surplus or deficit (–) Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (–) Gross Federal Held by the public 2,025.2 1,991.1 1,853.1 1,782.3 1,880.1 2,153.6 2,406.9 2,568.0 2,524.0 2,105.0 2,162.7 2,303.5 2,450.0 2,775.1 3,021.5 3,249.9 3,268.0 3,316.2 3,328.7 3,424.4 1,789.0 1,862.8 2,010.9 2,159.9 2,292.8 2,472.0 2,655.1 2,728.7 2,982.5 3,517.7 3,457.1 3,603.1 3,536.9 3,454.6 3,506.1 3,688.4 3,852.6 3,981.6 4,107.7 4,509.6 236.2 128.2 –157.8 –377.6 –412.7 –318.3 –248.2 –160.7 –458.6 –1,412.7 –1,294.4 –1,299.6 –1,087.0 –679.5 –484.6 –438.5 –584.7 –665.4 –779.0 –1,085.3 1,544.6 1,483.6 1,337.8 1,258.5 1,345.4 1,576.1 1,798.5 1,932.9 1,865.9 1,451.0 1,531.0 1,737.7 1,880.5 2,101.8 2,285.9 2,479.5 2,457.8 2,465.6 2,474.0 2,513.3 1,458.2 1,516.0 1,655.2 1,796.9 1,913.3 2,069.7 2,233.0 2,275.0 2,507.8 3,000.7 2,902.4 3,104.5 3,029.4 2,820.8 2,800.0 2,945.3 3,077.9 3,180.4 3,259.2 3,599.8 86.4 –32.4 –317.4 –538.4 –568.0 –493.6 –434.5 –342.2 –641.8 –1,549.7 –1,371.4 –1,366.8 –1,148.9 –719.0 –514.1 –465.8 –620.2 –714.8 –785.2 –1,086.4 480.6 507.5 515.3 523.8 534.7 577.5 608.4 635.1 658.0 654.0 631.7 565.8 569.5 673.3 735.6 770.4 810.2 850.6 854.7 911.1 330.8 346.8 355.7 363.0 379.5 402.2 422.1 453.6 474.8 517.0 554.7 498.6 507.6 633.8 706.1 743.1 774.7 801.2 848.6 909.9 149.8 160.7 159.7 160.8 155.2 175.3 186.3 181.5 183.3 137.0 77.0 67.2 61.9 39.5 29.5 27.3 35.5 49.4 6.2 1.2 5,628.7 5,769.9 6,198.4 6,760.0 7,354.7 7,905.3 8,451.4 8,950.7 9,986.1 11,875.9 13,528.8 14,764.2 16,050.9 16,719.4 17,794.5 18,120.1 19,539.5 20,205.7 21,460.7 22,818.1 3,409.8 3,319.6 3,540.4 3,913.4 4,295.5 4,592.2 4,829.0 5,035.1 5,803.1 7,544.7 9,018.9 10,128.2 11,281.1 11,982.7 12,779.9 13,116.7 14,167.6 14,665.5 15,751.2 16,978.0 1,130.6 1,111.2 1,306.3 1,421.5 –175.7 –310.3 861.7 827.1 1,052.1 1,148.4 –190.4 –321.4 268.8 284.1 254.2 273.0 14.7 11.1 20,447.8 21,924.2 14,792.8 16,090.9 1 Data for fiscal year 2018 are from Final Monthly Treasury Statement issued October 15, 2018 . 2 Data from current issue Monthly Treasury Statement. Note: Data for fiscal year 2019 are from Mid-Session Review, Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 2019, issued July 13, 2018. Other data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2019, issued February 12, 2018. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 32 Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function In the first four months of fiscal year 2019, receipts were $19.4 billion lower than a year earlier and outlays were $115.2 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2,000 1 RECEIPTS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2,000 INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 800 OTHER RECEIPTS 400 800 CORPORATION INCOME TAXES SOCIAL INSURANCE AND RETIREMENT RECEIPTS 400 0 0 4,000 3,800 4,000 3,800 OUTLAYS1 3,600 3,600 3,400 3,400 NONDEFENSE 3,200 3,200 3,000 3,000 2,800 2,800 2,600 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 2,000 1,800 1,600 800 800 600 600 NATIONAL DEFENSE 400 400 200 200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 FISCAL YEARS 1 INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Chart 33 - Oct 2018 On-budget and off-budget receipts Fiscal year or period 2000 ���������������������������������������������������� 2001 ���������������������������������������������������� 2002 ���������������������������������������������������� 2003 ���������������������������������������������������� 2004 ���������������������������������������������������� 2005 ���������������������������������������������������� 2006 ���������������������������������������������������� 2007 ���������������������������������������������������� 2008 ���������������������������������������������������� 2009 ���������������������������������������������������� 2010 ���������������������������������������������������� 2011 ���������������������������������������������������� 2012 ���������������������������������������������������� 2013 ���������������������������������������������������� 2014 ���������������������������������������������������� 2015 ���������������������������������������������������� 2016 ���������������������������������������������������� 2017 ���������������������������������������������������� 2018 1 �������������������������������������������������� 2019 (estimates) ��������������������������������� Cumulative total, first 4 months: 2 Fiscal year 2018 ���������������������������������� Fiscal year 2019 ���������������������������������� On-budget and off-budget outlays National defense Indi- Corporavidual tion income income taxes taxes Social insurance and retirement receipts 2,025.2 1,991.1 1,853.1 1,782.3 1,880.1 2,153.6 2,406.9 2,568.0 2,524.0 2,105.0 2,162.7 2,303.5 2,450.0 2,775.1 3,021.5 3,249.9 3,268.0 3,316.2 3,328.7 3,424.4 1,004.5 994.3 858.3 793.7 809.0 927.2 1,043.9 1,163.5 1,145.7 915.3 898.5 1,091.5 1,132.2 1,316.4 1,394.6 1,540.8 1,546.1 1,587.1 1,683.5 1,705.2 207.3 151.1 148.0 131.8 189.4 278.3 353.9 370.2 304.3 138.2 191.4 181.1 242.3 273.5 320.7 343.8 299.6 297.0 204.7 225.5 652.9 694.0 700.8 713.0 733.4 794.1 837.8 869.6 900.2 890.9 864.8 818.8 845.3 947.8 1,023.5 1,065.3 1,115.1 1,161.9 1,170.7 1,243.1 160.6 151.7 146.0 143.9 148.4 154.0 171.2 164.7 173.7 160.5 207.9 212.1 230.2 237.4 282.7 300.0 307.3 270.1 269.8 250.6 1,789.0 1,862.8 2,010.9 2,159.9 2,292.8 2,472.0 2,655.1 2,728.7 2,982.5 3,517.7 3,457.1 3,603.1 3,536.9 3,454.6 3,506.1 3,688.4 3,852.6 3,981.6 4,107.7 4,509.6 294.4 304.7 348.5 404.7 455.8 495.3 521.8 551.3 616.1 661.0 693.5 705.6 677.9 633.4 603.5 589.7 593.4 598.7 664.7 689.7 281.0 290.2 331.8 387.1 436.4 474.1 499.3 528.5 594.6 636.7 666.7 678.1 650.9 607.8 577.9 562.5 565.4 568.9 600.7 657.6 17.2 16.5 22.3 21.2 26.9 34.6 29.5 28.5 28.9 37.5 45.2 45.7 47.2 46.2 46.7 48.6 45.3 46.3 49.0 54.5 154.5 172.2 196.5 219.5 240.1 250.5 252.7 266.4 280.6 334.3 369.1 372.5 346.7 358.3 409.4 482.2 511.3 533.1 518.5 615.2 197.1 217.4 230.9 249.4 269.4 298.6 329.9 375.4 390.8 430.1 451.6 485.7 471.8 497.8 511.7 546.2 594.5 597.3 588.7 636.0 253.7 269.8 312.7 334.6 333.1 345.8 352.5 366.0 431.3 533.2 622.2 597.3 541.3 536.5 513.6 508.8 514.1 503.5 495.8 503.7 409.4 433.0 456.0 474.7 495.5 523.3 548.5 586.2 617.0 683.0 706.7 730.8 773.3 813.6 850.5 887.8 916.1 944.9 987.8 1,047.3 222.9 206.2 170.9 153.1 160.2 184.0 226.6 237.1 252.8 186.9 196.2 230.0 220.4 220.9 229.0 223.2 240.0 262.6 324.7 392.5 239.7 243.1 273.1 302.6 311.8 339.8 393.5 317.9 365.2 651.6 372.6 435.5 458.3 347.9 341.7 401.9 437.9 495.2 478.6 570.7 1,130.6 1,111.2 602.7 569.9 75.5 59.9 371.7 389.2 80.6 92.2 1,306.3 1,421.5 216.8 240.6 195.8 218.8 15.6 14.6 165.0 177.9 176.0 204.8 136.2 146.2 321.1 337.8 109.3 128.8 166.3 170.6 Total Other Total Total Depart- Internament tional of affairs Defense, military Health Medicare Income Social Net security security interest Other 1 Data for fiscal year 2018 are from Final Monthly Treasury Statement issued October 15, 2018. 2 Data from current issue Monthly Treasury Statement. Data for Department of Defense, military, include a small amount that is classified and listed under international affairs, and not included in national defense. Note: Data for fiscal year 2019 are from Mid-Session Review, Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 2019, issued July 13, 2018. Other data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2019, issued February 12, 2018. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis In the fourth quarter of 2018, according to initial estimates, Federal current expenditures data rose $65.0 billion (annual rate); Federal current receipts are incomplete. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4,800 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4,800 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 4,400 4,400 4,000 4,000 3,600 3,600 CURRENT EXPENDITURES 3,200 3,200 2,800 2,800 CURRENT RECEIPTS 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 800 800 400 400 0 0 NET FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SAVING –400 –400 –800 –800 –1,200 –1,200 –1,600 –1,600 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Chart 34 - Dec 2018 Federal Government current receipts Federal Government current expenditures Current tax receipts Period Total Total 1 Calendar year: 2009 ������������� 2,239.5 1,123.7 2010 ������������� 2,444.0 1,273.6 2011 ������������� 2,572.8 1,478.4 2012 ������������� 2,700.3 1,573.0 2013 ������������� 3,139.0 1,744.9 2014 ������������� 3,292.2 1,900.1 2015 ������������� 3,446.3 2,021.2 2016 ������������� 3,475.5 2,034.5 2017 ������������� 3,558.8 2,054.9 2018 p ����������� ������������ �������������� 2016: I ��������������� 3,447.2 2,002.8 II �������������� 3,448.4 2,011.1 III ������������� 3,491.8 2,058.5 IV ������������� 3,514.4 2,065.5 2017: I ��������������� 3,572.4 2,031.1 II �������������� 3,538.8 2,050.9 III ������������� 3,590.3 2,079.7 IV ������������� 3,533.6 2,058.0 2018: I ��������������� 3,428.3 1,908.8 II �������������� 3,456.2 1,936.6 III r ����������� 3,547.5 1,973.9 p IV ���������� ������������ �������������� Contributions for Income Taxes govern- receipts Taxes Personal on ment on on current production corporate social assets taxes and insurincome imports ance 866.2 943.2 1,130.3 1,165.8 1,302.3 1,403.1 1,528.3 1,545.7 1,613.4 1,614.3 1,522.0 1,532.4 1,551.6 1,576.7 1,588.1 1,606.3 1,625.9 1,633.3 1,583.9 1,599.2 1,625.3 1,648.7 91.4 153.0 96.8 219.4 108.6 224.0 115.2 274.7 125.5 298.4 136.3 339.6 140.4 329.6 137.7 327.1 131.5 284.6 160.3 �������������� 138.5 317.7 135.7 319.5 137.8 345.5 138.6 325.7 128.8 289.7 131.0 288.5 132.2 296.0 133.9 264.4 149.5 149.0 152.0 158.1 158.9 162.7 180.6 �������������� 1 Includes taxes from the rest of the world, not shown separately. 950.7 970.9 903.2 938.0 1,091.8 1,140.3 1,191.4 1,225.0 1,283.2 1,344.8 1,211.4 1,217.5 1,228.5 1,242.5 1,265.4 1,275.4 1,290.5 1,301.5 1,327.5 1,336.2 1,350.9 1,364.5 2 Includes Federal grants-in-aid to State and local governments, not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 34 97.0 133.8 130.4 141.1 243.1 171.7 159.6 138.0 135.4 121.7 151.2 136.4 137.4 126.9 161.7 141.7 129.1 109.1 122.4 112.8 126.6 124.9 Current transfer receipts 67.2 68.1 67.1 56.1 69.3 87.3 77.7 79.8 87.3 84.2 83.3 85.8 69.1 80.7 114.9 71.6 93.2 69.6 77.1 80.0 105.2 74.4 Current surplus of government enterprises 0.9 –2.4 –6.3 –7.8 –10.1 –7.2 –3.6 –1.7 –2.0 –8.2 –1.5 –2.4 –1.7 –1.2 –.7 –.8 –2.1 –4.5 –7.5 –9.3 –9.1 –7.0 Total 3,488.4 3,769.1 3,814.7 3,779.0 3,776.9 3,894.0 4,015.2 4,140.6 4,254.2 4,482.3 4,085.2 4,117.3 4,166.7 4,192.9 4,228.3 4,200.3 4,250.9 4,337.2 4,398.2 4,449.9 4,508.1 4,573.1 ConCurrent sumption transfer Interest Subsidies expendipaypayments tures ments 2 935.6 1,000.7 1,003.3 999.3 956.9 950.3 955.8 967.6 986.8 1,032.4 958.8 961.8 972.0 977.7 980.5 984.1 984.7 997.9 1,012.7 1,027.9 1,041.3 1,047.8 2,141.3 2,332.7 2,326.6 2,299.5 2,344.4 2,446.9 2,573.3 2,656.7 2,725.2 2,839.2 2,628.3 2,644.2 2,671.1 2,683.3 2,707.3 2,702.4 2,736.7 2,754.6 2,800.1 2,828.8 2,853.1 2,874.8 354.5 381.5 425.4 422.6 416.3 439.1 429.3 455.0 481.4 545.0 437.8 449.4 461.1 471.7 481.5 456.0 467.0 521.1 525.5 534.5 554.4 565.8 Net Federal Government saving 56.9 –1,248.9 54.2 –1,325.1 59.5 –1,242.0 57.6 –1,078.6 59.2 –637.9 57.6 –601.8 56.7 –568.9 61.3 –665.1 60.7 –695.4 65.7 ���������������� 60.3 –638.0 61.9 –668.8 62.6 –674.9 60.3 –678.6 59.0 –655.9 57.8 –661.5 62.5 –660.5 63.6 –803.6 60.0 –969.9 58.7 –993.7 59.4 –960.6 84.7 ���������������� INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries Industrial production (2012=100; seasonally adjusted) Period United States Canada Japan France Germany Consumer prices (1982–84=100; NSA) United Kingdom Italy United States 1 Canada Japan France 2009 ��������������� 89.2 90.2 88.7 95.4 84.4 98.4 100.2 214.537 197.9 118.7 2010 r ������������� 94.1 95.6 102.5 99.7 93.5 105.2 103.4 218.056 201.4 117.8 2011 ��������������� 97.1 100.1 99.8 102.5 100.3 106.1 102.8 224.939 207.2 117.5 2012 ��������������� 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 229.594 210.4 117.5 r 2013 ������������� 102.0 101.7 99.8 99.6 100.1 96.9 99.3 232.957 212.4 117.9 2014 r ������������� 105.2 106.8 101.8 98.5 101.5 96.3 100.8 236.736 216.4 121.1 2015 r ������������� 104.1 106.3 100.6 99.9 102.3 97.3 102.0 237.017 218.8 122.1 r 2016 ������������� 102.1 106.2 100.8 100.4 103.6 99.3 103.0 240.007 222.0 121.9 r 2017 ������������� 103.7 112.0 103.7 102.8 107.0 103.0 104.9 245.120 225.5 122.5 2018 p ������������� 108.0 115.7 104.7 103.2 108.1 103.7 105.6 251.107 230.6 123.7 r 2017: Dec ���� 105.8 114.5 106.5 105.3 110.1 107.4 105.3 246.524 226.2 123.6 2018: Jan r ���� 105.4 113.0 101.4 102.2 109.5 104.3 106.1 247.867 227.7 123.7 Feb r ���� 105.9 114.7 104.2 103.8 108.0 103.8 106.2 248.991 229.1 123.7 r Mar ��� 106.4 115.8 106.4 104.0 109.6 105.0 106.1 249.554 229.8 123.3 r Apr ���� 107.7 115.2 106.1 102.7 108.2 103.6 105.6 250.546 230.5 123.2 May r ��� 106.8 115.8 105.5 102.6 110.2 104.1 104.9 251.588 230.7 123.3 June r �� 107.4 115.9 104.1 103.3 109.5 104.4 105.7 251.989 231.0 123.2 r July ��� 107.9 116.7 103.7 103.8 107.6 102.5 106.3 252.006 232.2 123.3 r Aug ���� 108.8 116.8 104.0 104.0 108.2 104.5 106.2 252.146 232.0 124.0 Sept r ��� 109.0 115.6 103.6 102.7 107.7 104.1 105.6 252.439 231.2 124.2 Oct r ����� 109.3 116.6 106.6 103.7 107.1 104.0 105.3 252.885 231.9 124.5 r Nov ���� 110.0 116.3 105.5 102.7 105.6 102.3 104.9 252.038 230.8 124.3 p Dec ��� 110.1 116.1 105.4 102.6 105.8 101.6 104.5 251.233 230.7 123.9 2019: Jan p ���� 109.4 ��������������� 101.4 104.0 ��������������� 103.4 ��������������� 251.712 231.0 123.9 p Feb ���� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� Germany 184.1 186.9 190.8 194.6 196.3 197.2 197.3 197.7 199.7 203.4 201.0 200.8 200.7 202.8 203.1 204.0 204.0 203.8 204.8 204.3 204.6 204.1 204.2 203.3 203.3 Italy 164.5 166.3 169.7 173.1 175.8 177.3 178.2 179.1 181.8 185.0 182.9 181.8 182.4 183.4 183.8 185.2 185.4 186.1 186.3 186.7 187.0 185.8 185.8 184.3 185.2 United Kingdom 282.2 251.1 286.5 262.7 294.5 276.3 303.5 285.2 307.1 293.9 307.9 300.8 308.0 303.8 307.7 309.1 311.5 320.1 315.0 330.8 311.8 326.7 312.7 324.3 312.7 326.7 313.7 327.0 314.0 328.6 314.9 329.8 315.5 330.7 316.4 331.0 317.7 333.9 316.1 333.8 316.1 334.3 315.5 334.4 315.2 335.6 315.5 332.5 316.1 ����������������� 1 Data relate to all urban consumers. Note: See Note, p. 17, for information on U.S. industrial production series. Sources: As reported by each country, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services [Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Goods: Exports (f.a.s. value) Census basis (by end-use category) Period 2009 ��������������� 2010 ��������������� 2011 ��������������� 2012 ��������������� 2013 ��������������� 2014 ��������������� 2015 ��������������� 2016 ��������������� 2017 ��������������� 2018 p ������������� 2017: Dec ������ 2018: Jan r ���� Feb r ���� Mar r ��� Apr r ���� May r ��� June r �� July r ��� Aug r ���� Sept r ��� Oct r ����� Nov r ���� Dec p ��� BOP basis 1,070.3 1,290.3 1,498.9 1,562.6 1,593.7 1,635.6 1,511.4 1,457.0 1,553.4 1,671.8 136.8 133.0 136.0 140.2 140.5 144.3 142.4 140.1 138.3 141.1 140.8 139.5 135.6 IndusFoods, trial Total, feeds, supCensus and plies basis 1 bever- and ages materials 1,056.0 1,278.5 1,482.5 1,545.8 1,578.5 1,621.9 1,503.3 1,451.0 1,546.3 1,664.1 136.1 132.2 135.2 139.6 139.8 143.5 141.8 139.5 137.8 140.5 140.2 138.9 135.2 93.9 107.7 126.2 133.0 136.2 143.7 127.7 130.5 132.7 133.3 10.9 10.1 10.2 11.1 11.7 13.5 13.4 12.6 11.3 10.4 9.7 9.8 9.6 296.5 391.7 501.1 501.2 508.2 505.8 427.0 397.0 464.7 538.9 42.8 40.9 42.9 44.3 45.6 44.4 46.3 46.5 44.1 46.9 47.2 45.9 43.8 81.7 112.0 133.0 146.2 152.7 159.8 151.9 150.3 157.6 158.6 13.5 13.6 14.5 14.1 13.9 13.5 12.8 13.1 12.8 13.0 12.7 12.3 12.3 Balance of trade (exports minus imports) Census basis (by end-use category) Auto- Consumer Capital motive vegoods goods hicles, except parts (nonfood) autoexcept motive and enautogines motive 391.2 447.5 494.0 527.2 534.4 551.5 539.5 519.6 533.3 562.0 47.0 44.9 45.8 47.6 46.1 48.2 47.3 46.3 46.4 47.5 47.0 48.4 46.7 Services (BOP basis) Goods: Imports (customs value) 149.5 165.2 175.3 181.7 188.8 199.0 197.7 193.7 197.7 205.9 16.8 17.8 16.7 17.1 17.2 17.7 16.3 15.9 17.6 17.7 17.9 17.0 17.1 BOP basis 1,580.0 1,939.0 2,239.9 2,303.7 2,294.2 2,385.5 2,273.2 2,208.0 2,360.9 2,563.1 210.1 208.4 213.6 210.5 209.8 210.8 212.1 214.1 215.7 219.2 219.6 212.1 217.2 IndusFoods, trial Total, feeds, supCensus and plies basis 1 bever- and ages materials 1,559.6 1,913.9 2,208.0 2,276.3 2,268.0 2,356.4 2,248.8 2,187.6 2,342.0 2,542.8 208.5 206.7 212.0 208.9 208.0 209.0 210.5 212.3 214.0 217.6 217.9 210.3 215.5 81.6 91.7 107.5 110.3 115.1 125.9 127.8 130.0 137.8 147.4 11.9 11.8 12.6 12.3 12.3 12.4 12.2 12.4 12.3 12.1 12.3 12.2 12.6 462.4 603.1 755.8 730.6 681.5 667.0 486.0 443.3 507.3 575.7 45.5 46.9 47.2 46.8 47.9 47.9 48.8 49.4 49.7 49.5 49.3 46.1 46.1 BOP basis Auto- Consumer Capital motive vegoods Exports goods hicles, except parts (nonfood) autoexcept motive and enautogines motive 370.5 449.4 510.8 548.7 555.7 594.1 602.5 589.9 640.6 693.3 57.1 55.7 57.6 56.5 56.9 59.0 57.5 58.2 57.7 60.1 56.9 57.3 60.0 157.7 225.1 254.6 297.8 308.8 328.6 349.2 350.1 359.0 372.3 30.7 30.7 31.1 30.9 30.0 29.7 30.2 30.7 31.7 31.1 31.9 32.1 32.1 427.3 483.2 514.1 516.9 531.7 557.1 594.2 583.4 601.9 647.9 55.0 53.2 55.7 54.7 51.9 51.4 53.4 52.6 53.5 55.5 57.4 53.1 55.5 512.7 562.8 627.1 655.7 700.5 741.1 755.3 758.9 797.7 828.1 68.2 68.2 68.7 69.0 68.6 68.6 68.7 69.0 69.2 69.5 69.7 69.5 69.5 Imports Goods, Census basis Goods Services Goods and services 386.8 409.3 435.8 452.0 461.1 480.8 492.0 509.8 542.5 557.9 46.8 46.0 46.9 46.3 45.9 45.6 45.9 46.2 46.3 46.8 47.1 47.3 47.7 –503.6 –635.4 –725.4 –730.4 –689.5 –734.5 –745.5 –736.6 –795.7 –878.7 –72.4 –74.4 –76.8 –69.3 –68.2 –65.5 –68.7 –72.9 –76.2 –77.1 –77.7 –71.4 –80.4 125.9 153.4 191.3 203.7 239.4 260.3 263.3 249.1 255.2 270.2 21.4 22.2 21.8 22.8 22.7 23.0 22.7 22.7 22.9 22.7 22.6 22.3 21.8 –383.8 –495.2 –549.7 –537.4 –461.1 –489.6 –498.5 –502.0 –552.3 –621.0 –51.9 –53.2 –55.8 –47.5 –46.5 –43.6 –47.0 –51.2 –54.5 –55.4 –56.3 –50.3 –59.8 –509.7 –648.7 –741.0 –741.1 –700.5 –749.9 –761.9 –751.1 –807.5 –891.3 –73.3 –75.4 –77.6 –70.3 –69.2 –66.6 –69.7 –74.0 –77.4 –78.1 –78.9 –72.6 –81.5 1 Total includes ‘‘other’’ exports or imports, not shown separately. Note: BOP refers to balance of payments on international transactions basis. BOP data shown here are consistent with figures shown on pp. 36 and 37. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis). 35 U.S. International Transactions In the third quarter of 2018, the current account deficit widened to $124.8 billion from $101.2 billion in the second quarter. The goods and services deficit widened to $158.7 billion from $134.6 billion in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 80 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 80 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 60 60 40 40 BALANCE ON PRIMARY INCOME 20 20 0 0 –20 –20 –40 –40 BALANCE ON SECONDARY INCOME –60 –60 BALANCE ON CURRENT ACCOUNT –80 –80 –100 –100 –120 –120 –140 –140 BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES –160 –160 –180 –180 –200 –200 –220 –220 –240 –240 2010 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 2017 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted] Chart 36 - Dec 2018 Current Account 1 Goods 2 Period 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2016: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2017: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2018: I ���������������� II ��������������� III p ������������ Services Exports Imports Balance on goods 1,308,795 1,070,331 1,290,279 1,498,887 1,562,630 1,593,708 1,635,563 1,511,381 1,456,957 1,553,383 353,330 361,159 371,283 371,186 381,138 382,492 387,814 401,939 411,442 429,431 421,762 2,141,287 1,580,025 1,938,950 2,239,886 2,303,749 2,294,247 2,385,480 2,273,249 2,208,008 2,360,878 539,770 546,454 556,600 565,185 579,484 582,440 584,637 614,317 632,244 632,489 648,775 –832,492 –509,694 –648,671 –740,999 –741,119 –700,539 –749,917 –761,868 –751,051 –807,495 –186,440 –185,295 –185,316 –194,000 –198,346 –199,948 –196,823 –212,378 –220,802 –203,058 –227,012 Exports 532,817 512,722 562,759 627,061 655,724 700,491 741,094 755,310 758,888 797,690 186,905 189,118 191,760 191,104 195,168 197,252 201,293 203,977 205,994 205,817 207,635 Imports 409,052 386,801 409,313 435,761 452,013 461,087 480,761 491,966 509,838 542,471 125,727 125,922 128,214 129,975 131,781 134,004 137,261 139,426 139,182 137,365 139,279 Balance on services 123,765 125,920 153,446 191,300 203,711 239,404 260,333 263,343 249,050 255,219 61,179 63,196 63,546 61,129 63,387 63,248 64,032 64,551 66,812 68,452 68,356 Balance on goods and services –708,726 –383,774 –495,225 –549,699 –537,408 –461,135 –489,584 –498,525 –502,001 –552,277 –125,261 –122,099 –121,770 –132,871 –134,959 –136,700 –132,791 –147,826 –153,989 –134,606 –158,656 Primary income receipts and payments Receipts 815,567 613,249 680,169 755,937 767,972 792,819 824,543 810,073 830,174 928,118 199,946 207,929 206,389 215,911 217,567 223,979 237,632 248,940 256,029 266,274 264,523 Payments 685,918 498,089 511,948 544,853 560,497 586,842 606,152 606,464 637,151 706,386 154,498 160,387 162,480 159,787 164,962 175,444 179,410 186,569 194,854 203,926 205,098 Balance on primary income 129,649 115,160 168,221 211,084 207,475 205,977 218,391 203,608 193,023 221,731 45,447 47,543 43,909 56,124 52,604 48,535 58,222 62,371 61,175 62,348 59,425 Balance on secondary Income 3 –102,312 –103,907 –104,261 –107,047 –96,900 –93,643 –94,006 –112,848 –123,895 –118,597 –32,087 –28,501 –31,465 –31,842 –25,355 –33,672 –28,878 –30,692 –28,896 –28,966 –25,586 Balance on current account –681,389 –372,521 –431,265 –445,662 –426,832 –348,801 –365,199 –407,764 –432,873 –449,142 –111,901 –103,057 –109,327 –108,589 –107,709 –121,837 –103,447 –116,148 –121,710 –101,224 –124,817 Current account balance as a percentage of GDP –4.6 –2.6 –2.9 –2.9 –2.6 –2.1 –2.1 –2.2 –2.3 –2.3 –2.4 –2.2 –2.3 –2.3 –2.2 –2.5 –2.1 –2.3 –2.4 –2.0 –2.4 1 Current and capital account statistics in the international transactions accounts differ slightly from statistics in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) because of adjustments made to convert the international statistics to national accounting concepts. A reconciliation can be found in NIPA table 4.3B. 2 Adjusted from Census data to align with concepts and definitions used to prepare the international and national economic accounts. The adjustments are necessary to supplement coverage of Census data, to eliminate duplication of transactions recorded elsewhere in the international accounts, to value transactions according to a standard definition, and for earlier years, to record transactions in the appropriate period. 3 Includes U.S. government and private transfers, such as U.S. government grants and pensions, fines and penalties, withholding taxes, personal transfers, insurance-related transfers, and other current transfers. See p. 37 for continuation of table. 36 U.S. International Transactions—Continued In the financial account, U.S. net borrowing was $31.3 billion in the third quarter of 2018, resulting from a net decrease in U.S. financial assets of $132.7 billion plus a net decrease in financial derivatives of $12.3 billion, less a net decrease in U.S. liabilities of $151.7 billion. U.S. net borrowing was down from $153.7 billion in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 800 800 700 700 600 600 500 500 CHANGE IN U.S. LIABILITIES 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 CHANGE IN U.S. ASSETS ABROAD1 –100 –100 –200 –200 –300 –300 –400 –400 –500 –500 2010 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1 INCLUDES FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES, NET, BEGINNING 2006. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted] Chart 37 - Dec 2018 Financial account Period Balance on capital account 1 Net U.S. acquisition of financial assets excluding financial derivatives [net increase in assets / financial outflow (+)] Total 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2016: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2017: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2018: I ���������������� II ��������������� III p ������������ Portfolio Direct investment investment assets assets Other investment assets 6,010 –317,607 343,584 –284,269 –381,770 –140 131,074 312,597 375,883 –609,662 –157 958,703 349,829 199,620 407,420 –1,186 492,530 436,615 85,365 –45,327 6,904 176,764 377,239 248,760 –453,695 –412 649,587 392,796 481,298 –221,408 –45 866,523 387,528 582,676 –100,099 –42 202,208 307,058 160,410 –258,968 –59 348,625 312,975 36,283 –2,723 24,746 1,182,749 379,222 586,695 218,522 –58 39,781 76,062 –64,312 29,222 0 350,387 103,425 147,012 99,761 –1 40,432 95,894 –33,346 –23,759 0 –81,975 37,593 –13,071 –107,947 –1 366,101 135,054 141,783 89,505 0 315,922 49,976 180,700 85,095 24,787 373,591 102,936 175,910 94,804 –40 127,135 91,256 88,301 –50,883 –2 251,126 –139,326 304,094 86,365 –5 –199,943 –68,060 –14,272 –120,679 562 132,689 76,846 72,598 –16,577 Reserve assets 4 4,848 52,256 1,835 15,877 4,460 –3,099 –3,583 –6,292 2,090 –1,690 –1,191 189 1,642 1,450 –241 150 –61 –1,539 –7 3,068 –177 Net U.S. incurrence of liabilities excluding financial derivatives [net increase in liabilities / financial inflow (+)] Total 462,408 325,644 1,391,042 983,522 632,034 1,052,068 1,109,443 501,121 741,529 1,537,683 152,172 368,537 243,723 –22,901 429,098 445,338 504,082 159,164 441,080 –63,262 151,723 Direct investment liabilities Portfolio investment liabilities Other investment liabilities 341,091 161,082 264,039 263,499 250,343 288,131 251,857 509,087 494,455 354,829 158,914 186,295 130,934 18,312 112,354 97,118 107,107 38,250 57,949 16,499 122,336 523,683 357,352 820,434 311,626 747,017 511,987 697,607 213,910 231,349 799,182 –52,832 4,783 217,768 61,630 160,111 263,170 294,275 81,626 301,503 20,596 12,469 –402,367 –192,789 306,569 408,397 –365,327 251,949 159,979 –221,876 15,725 383,671 46,089 177,458 –104,979 –102,843 156,633 85,050 102,701 39,288 81,628 –100,358 16,918 Financial derivatives other than reserves, net transactions 32,947 –44,816 –14,076 –35,006 7,064 2,222 –54,335 –27,035 7,827 23,074 10,782 608 3,437 –7,000 –5,609 9,306 18,600 777 29,024 –16,969 –12,255 Net lending (+) or net borrowing (–) from financial account transactions 5 –747,069 –239,386 –446,415 –525,998 –448,205 –400,259 –297,255 –325,948 –385,078 –331,860 –101,609 –17,541 –199,854 –66,073 –68,606 –120,111 –111,891 –31,252 –160,930 –153,650 –31,289 U.S. official reserve assets, Statistical net discrep(unadancy justed, end of period) 4 –71,690 133,275 –14,992 –79,150 –28,277 –51,046 67,989 81,859 47,855 92,536 10,350 85,516 –90,527 42,515 39,104 1,727 –33,231 84,936 –39,218 –52,421 92,966 77,648 130,760 132,433 147,953 150,175 144,575 130,090 117,581 117,332 123,313 119,727 120,202 122,431 117,332 118,793 122,015 123,863 123,313 126,510 125,099 123,729 4 Consists of monetary gold, special drawing rights (SDRs), the U.S. reserve position in the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and other reserve assets, including foreign currencies. 5 Net lending means that U.S. residents are net suppliers of funds to foreign residents, and net borrowing means the opposite. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 37 CONTENTS TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page Gross Domestic Product ........................................................................................................................................................ 1 Real Gross Domestic Product ................................................................................................................................................ 2 Chained Price Indexes For Gross Domestic Product ............................................................................................................ 2 Gross Domestic Product and Related Price Measures: Indexes and Percent Changes ........................................................... 3 Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Gross Value Added and Price, Costs, and Profits .......................................................... 3 National Income .................................................................................................................................................................... 4 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures ............................................................................................................................ 4 Sources of Personal Income ................................................................................................................................................... 5 Disposition of Personal Income ............................................................................................................................................. 6 Real Farm Income ................................................................................................................................................................. 7 Corporate Profits ................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Real Gross Private Domestic Investment ............................................................................................................................... 9 Real Private Fixed Investment by Type .................................................................................................................................. 10 Business Investment ............................................................................................................................................................... 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force ....................................................................................................................................................... Selected Unemployment Rates .............................................................................................................................................. Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs ................................................................... Nonagricultural Employment ................................................................................................................................................ Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries ................................ Employment Cost Index—Private Industry .......................................................................................................................... Productivity and Related Data, Business and Nonfarm Business Sectors .............................................................................. 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization .................................................................................................................... 17 Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures .......................................................................... 18 New Construction ................................................................................................................................................................. 19 New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates .............................................................................................................................. 19 Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade .................................................................................................. 20 Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders .............................................................................................................. 21 PRICES Producer Prices ...................................................................................................................................................................... Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers ............................................................................................................................. Changes in Producer Prices ................................................................................................................................................... Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers .......................................................................................................... Prices Received and Paid by Farmers ..................................................................................................................................... 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock and Debt Measures .......................................................................................................................................... Components of Money Stock ................................................................................................................................................ Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base ................................................................................................................................. Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks .................................................................................................................................. Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business .............................................................................. Consumer Credit ................................................................................................................................................................... Interest Rates and Bond Yields .............................................................................................................................................. Common Stock Prices and Yields .......................................................................................................................................... 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt ..................................................................................................................................... 32 Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function ............................................................................................................ 33 Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis ................................................................................................................... 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries ........................................................................... 35 U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services .................................................................................................................... 35 U.S. International Transactions ............................................................................................................................................. 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: p Preliminary. r Revised. c Corrected. ... Not available (also, not applicable). NSA Not seasonally adjusted. 38