Full text of Economic Indicators : January 1996
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104th Congress, 2d Session Economic Indicators JANUARY 1996 (Includes data available as of February 26, 1996) Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers LIBRARY iAR 0 8 1998 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CHICAGO UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1996 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) CONNIE MACK, Florida, Chairman JIM SAXTON, New Jersey, Vice Chairman SENATE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) LARRY E. CRAIG (Idaho) ROBERT F. BENNETT (Utah) RICK SANTORUM (Pennsylvania) RODNEY D. GRAMS (Minnesota) JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico) PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) CHARLES S. ROBB (Virginia) THOMAS W. EWING (Illinois) JACK QUINN (New York) DONALD A. MANZULLO (Illinois) MARSHALL (MARK) SANFORD (South Carolina) WILLIAM M. (MAC) THORNBERRY (Texas) FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California) DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin) LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana) KWEISI MFUME (Maryland) ROBERT N. MOTTICE, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ, Chairman MARTIN N. BAILY, Member ALICIA H. MUNNELL, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—81ST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION) JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts prepared by the Art Production Section, Design and Graphics Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $3.00 a single copy ($3.75 foreign), or by subscription at $33.00 per year ($41.25 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 For sale by the U.S. Government Printing Office Superintendent of Documents, Mail Stop: SSOP, Washington, DC 20402-9328 ISBN 0-16-047020-X 11 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME AND SPENDING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT In the fourth quarter of 1995, according to advance estimates, current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) rose 2.7 percent (annual rate), real GDP (GDP in chained 1992 dollars) rose 0.9 percent, and the implicit price deflator rose 1.8 percent. (Series revised.) BIUIONS Of DOUARS (RATIO SCALE! BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 7,600 7,600 SEA5ONAU.Y ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATCS 7,200 7,200 " 6,800 6,800 • — *^ ^ GDP WNED( 1992) DOHA 6,400 ^/ .^•""" 6,400 __ _ ^ ---_ 6,000 6,000 _ - 5,600 ^" ^ ^-' 5,200 f--" ^ /^ 5,600 ^ 5,200 x X X ^\ X 4,800 X 4,800 ./ GDP ' IN CURRENT DOLLARS 4,400 4,400 ^ / 4,000 / 3,600 4,000 s 3,600 / 3,200 3,200 I 1 1 1982 ! 1 1 1983 1 1 1 1984 \ 1985 i i 1 ! 1 1987 1986 1 1 1 1988 E 1 \ 1 1989 1991 1990 \ 1992 \ i i i i i i I I I 1993 1994 1995 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1986' 1987' 1988' 1989' 1990' 1991' 1992' 1993' 1994' 1995/> 1990: IV' 1991- IV' 1992: IV' 1993- I' II' III' rv' 1994- 1' II' HI' IV' 1995: 1' II' Ill' IV P 1 Personal ( ross p ivate conGross domestic sumption do nestie product. expendi- ii vesti lent tures 4,422.2 4,692.3 5,049.6 5,438.7 5,743.8 5,916.7 6,244.4 6,550.2 6,931.4 7,247.7 5,781.5 6,002.3 6,383.0 6,442.8 6,503.2 6.571.3 6,683.7 6,772.8 6,885.0 6,987.6 7,080.0 7,147.8 7,196.5 7,298.5 7,348.1 2,892.7 3,094.5 3,349.7 3,594.8 3,839.3 3,975.1 4,219.8 4,454.1 4,698.7 4,923.4 3,907.0 4,027.1 4,329.6 4,367.8 4,424.7 4.481.0 4,543.0 4,599.2 4,665.1 4.734.4 4,796.0 4,836.3 4,908.7 4,960.0 4,988.8 722.5 747.2 773.9 829.2 799.7 736.2 790.4 871.1 1,014.4 1,067.5 736.1 760.9 816.1 843.6 855.9 873.8 911.2 957.6 1,016.5 1,033.6 1,050.1 1,072.0 1,050.3 1,074.8 1.072.7 Exports and ini x>rts of goods and services Federal Net exports Exports -131.5 -142.1 -106.1 -80.4 -71.3 - 20.5 - 29.5 - 64.9 -96.4 -101.7 -72.0 -14.8 -42.7 -47.4 - 62.0 - 77.1 - 73.2 - 80.3 -97.4 -108.4 - 99.7 -106.6 -122.4 -100.8 - 76.9 Imports Total Total 320.7 365.7 447.2 509.3 557.3 601.8 639.4 660.0 722.0 804.5 577.3 624.4 649.1 649.4 662.5 648.5 679.4 681.5 708.6 734.2 763.6 778.6 796.9 812.5 830.1 452.2 507.9 553.2 589.7 628.6 6223 669.0 724.9 818.4 906.2 649.2 639.3 691.8 696.8 724.6 725.6 752.6 761.7 806.0 842.6 863.3 885.1 919.3 913.3 907.0 GDP less exports <>f goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Note.—GDP and related data reflect benchmark revisions released in January 199(1. See 'wn'fjy of Current Business for details on the revisions. Government consumption expenditures and gross investment 938.5 992.8 1,032.0 1,095.1 1,176.1 1,225.9 1,263.8 1,289.9 1,314.7 1,358.5 1,210.4 1,229.2 1 ,280.0 1,278.8 1,284.6 1,293.6 1.302.7 1,296.4 1,300.8 1.328.0 1,333.5 1.346.0 1,359.9 1.364.5 1,363.5 435.2 455.7 457.3 477.2 503.6 522.6 528.0 522.1 516.3 516.8 516.7 515.5 535.0 525.0 519.6 520.8 522.9 5.11.3 509.4 523.6 520.9 51 9.9 522.6 516.7 508.0 National defense 332.4 350.4 354.0 360.6 373.1 383.5 375.8 362.2 352.0 345.7 383.3 373.0 375.3 365.2 362.2 360.7 360.8 346.7 349.3 362.1 349.6 347.7 352.3 345.6 337.1 Nondefense 102.9 105.3 103.3 116.7 130.4 139.1 152.2 159.9 164.3 171.1 133.3 142.6 159.7 159.8 157.4 160.1 162.2 164.6 160.0 161.5 171.2 172.1 170.3 171.1 170.9 State and local 503.3 537.2 574.7 617.9 672.6 703.4 735.8 767.8 798.4 841.7 693.7 713.6 745.1 753.8 765.0 772.7 779.7 785.0 791.4 804.4 812.6 826.1 837.3 847.7 855.4 Final Gross sales of domestic purdomestic product chases * Addendum: Gross national product. 4.553.7 4,834.5 5,155.6 5,519.1 5,815.1 5,937.2 6,274.0 6,615.2 7.027.8 7,349.4 5,853.5 6,017.1 6,425.7 6,490.1 6,565.2 6.648.4 6,756.9 6.853.1 6.982.5 7.096.0 7,179.6 7,254.3 7,318.9 7,399.3 7,425.0 4,435.1 4,701 .3 5,062.6 5,452.8 5,764.9 5.932.4 6,255.5 6.560.0 6,922.4 4,412.6 4,668.1 5,038.7 5.407.0 5,735.8 5,919.0 6,237.4 6,529.7 6,871.8 7,209.6 5.812.9 5.980.9 6,376.6 6,422.9 6,481.6 6.549.3 6,664.9 6,732.6 6,810.5 6,922.9 7,021.3 7,089.7 7,162.5 7,260.3 7,325.9 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5,813.6 6,016.6 6,390.5 6,458.4 6,512.3 6,584.8 6,684.5 6,773.6 6,876.3 6,977.6 7,062.2 7,140.5 7,187.0 7.283.0 REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT [Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted animal rates] Period 1986' 1987 r 1988r 1989' 1990' 1991r 1992' 1993' 1994' 1995P 19901991: 1992: . .. .. IV' IV' IV' 1993: I' II' III' IV' 1994: I' II' Ill' IV' 1995- I' II' Ill' IV Personal conGross domestic sumption expendiproduct tures 5,489.9 3,708.7 5,648.4 3,822.3 5,862.9 3,972.7 6,060.4 4,064.6 6,138.7 4,132.2 6,079.0 4,105.8 6,244.4 4,219.8 6,383.8 4,339.7 6,604.2 4,471.1 6,740.8 4,577.4 6,081.0 4,116.4 6,104.4 4,109.1 6,327.3 4,282.3 6,327.0 4,290.0 6,353.7 4,319.0 6,390.4 4,359.7 6,463.9 4,390.0 6,504.6 4,418.8 6,581.5 4,457.7 6,639.5 4,485.8 6,691.3 4,522.3 6,701.6 4,530.9 6,709.4 4,568.8 6,768.3 4,600.4 6,783.8 4,609.7 Gross priva e domestic investment Nonresidential fixed investment Residential fixed investment 548.5 542.4 566.0 588.8 585.2 547.7 557.9 593.6 652.1 716.3 573.9 539.5 569.1 577.5 586.4 593.1 617.6 628.6 639.5 660.4 679.7 704.4 710.6 719.7 730.7 Change in business inventories 257.0 257.6 252.5 243.2 220.6 193.4 225.6 242.7 268.9 262.5 200.3 202.4 236.7 237.9 234.8 2422 255.8 263.6 271.6 270.3 270.3 265.9 256.6 262.3 265.2 Exports and imports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Net exports 10.9 -163.9 262 1569 11.6 -114.4 33.3 -82.7 10.4 61 9 -3.0 -223 7.3 -29.5 19.1 -74.4 58.9 -108.1 34.7 -113.6 -28.2 -42.5 21.4 -17.9 5.8 -40.0 18.5 -55.2 20.8 -67.0 19.5 -89.1 17.4 -86.2 40.1 -101.3 74.1 -112.2 64.0 -113.3 57.3 -105.8 54.5 -119.0 30.6 -126.8 33.2 -114.3 20.4 -94.1 Exports Imports 362.2 402.0 465.8 520.2 564.4 599.9 639.4 660.6 715.1 774.7 573.9 623.5 649.1 649.8 662.3 648.9 681.4 680.4 704.3 724.8 751.0 755.8 764.3 779.1 799.6 526.1 558.2 580.2 603.0 626.3 6222 669.0 735.0 823.3 888.3 616.4 641.4 689.1 705.1 729.4 738.1 767.6 781.7 816.5 838.1 856.8 874.9 891.2 893.4 893.7 1 GDP less exjwrts of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Note.-Data reflect benchmark revisions released in January 1996. See -Surm/ of Current Business for details on the revisions. Total Total 1,135.0 1,165.9 1,180.9 1,213.9 ,250.4 ,258.0 ,263.8 ,260.5 ,259.9 ,261.0 ,259.9 ,250.7 ,272.5 ,257.2 ,257.9 ,261.1 ,265.7 ,252.3 ,249.7 ,271.0 ,266.6 1,263.0 1,265.8 1,263.6 1,251.7 Nondefense National defense 518.4 534.4 524.6 531.5 541.9 539.4 528.0 508.7 489.7 473.0 543.5 526.9 534.0 515.7 509.2 505.4 504.5 489.8 483.3 496.6 489.1 481.3 479.9 472.7 457.9 State and local 393.4 409.2 405.5 401.6 401.5 397.5 375.8 354.9 336.9 320.1 403.1 381.7 376.8 361.2 356.4 351.2 350.8 334.8 335.5 346.1 331.3 325.3 326.1 319.3 309.6 125.2 125.3 119.1 130.1 140.5 142.0 152.2 153.8 152.6 152.6 140.5 145.3 157.1 154.5 152.7 154.2 153.7 154.8 147.7 150.5 157.5 155.6 153.6 153.1 148.0 616.9 631.8 656.6 682.6 708.6 718.7 735.8 751.8 770.5 788.6 716.5 723.8 738.5 741.6 748.8 755.7 761.3 762.7 766.8 774.7 777.7 782.2 786.3 791.5 794.6 Final sales of domestic product Gross domestic purchases1 Addendum: Gross national product 5,480.9 5,626.0 5,855.1 6,028.7 6,126.7 6,082.6 6,237.4 6,362.9 6,546.3 6,705.5 6,108.1 6,083.8 6,320.7 6,307.7 6,331.6 6,368.2 6,444.1 6,464.0 6,509.0 6,576.8 6,635.2 6,647.5 6,677.4 6,733.3 6,763.9 5,666.1 5,815.7 5,983.9 6,146.1 6,202.1 6,101.1 6,274.0 6,457.3 6,709.7 6,850.9 6,124.3 6,122.3 6,367.3 6,382.0 6,420.2 6,478.3 6,548.7 6,603.9 6,691.0 6,749.7 6,794.0 6,816.9 6,832.0 6,879.4 6 875 3 5,503.4 5,657.2 5,876.2 6,074.0 6,159.4 6,094.4 6,255.5 6,393.7 6,596.6 6,113.4 6,118.7 6,334.8 6,342.7 6,362.9 6,404.0 6,465.1 6,506.2 6,573.9 6,631.1 6,675.4 6,695.7 6,701.2 6,754.6 Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar estimates <*mP*nent« *> ** add to the ehamed-dollar value of GDP or t» any intennedigBreSa«sSource: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. f( r the detailed ' ate a IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT [Index numbers, 1992=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Personal consumption expenditures Period Gross domesticproduct 1986' 1987' 1988' 1989' 1990' .. . 1991' 1992' 1993' 1994' 1995? 80.6 83.1 86.1 89.7 9.3.6 97.3 100.0 102.6 105.0 107.5 1990: IV' 1991: IV' 1992: IV' 95.1 98.3 100.9 101.8 102.4 102.8 103.4 104.1 104.6 105.2 105.8 106.7 107.3 107.8 108.3 1993: I' ... II' Ill' IV' 1994: I' II' Ill' IV' 1995: I' . II' Ill' IV P Note.—See Note, p. 1. Total 78.0 81.0 84.3 88.4 92.9 96.8 100.0 102.6 105.1 107.6 94.9 98.0 101.1 101.8 102.4 102.8 103.5 104.1 104.7 105.5 106.1 106.7 107.4 107.8 108.2 Gross private domestic investment Residential fixed 84.9 88.3 92.1 95.1 97.8 98.8 100.0 103.7 107.0 110.3 102.4 103.3 103.9 104.7 105.6 106.2 107.1 107.9 90.2 91.3 93.7 96.2 98.4 99.9 100.0 100.9 102.3 103.3 99.4 99.9 100.1 100.5 100.8 101.0 101.1 101.6 102.2 102.7 102.7 102.3 103.6 104.3 104.7 105.7 106.2 107.4 108.6 108.8 109.7 110.3 111.0 102.7 103.4 103.7 103.4 109.2 109.9 110.7 111.3 Nondurable goods Services 88.9 91.6 93.3 95.3 96.6 98.5 100.0 101.3 103.4 104.4 97.0 99.1 100.2 100.5 101.1 101.5 101.9 102.4 103.2 104.0 103.9 104.6 104.7 104.4 103.7 78.7 81.8 84.8 89.3 94.6 98.1 100.0 101.5 102.8 104.5 97.4 98.7 100.7 101.3 101.5 101.3 101.9 102,0 102.4 103.3 103.6 103.9 104.5 104.6 105.0 75.3 78.2 82.2 86.6 91.2 95.8 100.0 103.6 106.7 109.9 93.1 97.4 101 .5 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Nonresidential fixed Durable goods Exports and imports of goods and services 98.3 98.9 101.4 Exports Imports Total 88.5 91.0 96.0 97.9 98.7 100.3 100.0 99.9 101.0 103.8 100.6 100.2 100.0 99.9 100.0 99.9 99.7 100.2 100.6 101.3 101.7 103.0 104.3 104.3 103.8 National defense Nondefonse 86.0 91.0 95.3 97.8 100.4 100.0 100.0 98.6 99.4 102.0 105.3 99.7 100.4 84.0 85.3 87.2 89.8 92.9 96.9 100.0 102.6 105.4 109.3 95.1 97.8 100.2 84.5 85.6 87.3 89.8 92.9 96.5 100.0 102.1 104.5 108.0 822 84.0 86.7 89.7 92.8 97.9 100.0 104.0 107.7 112.2 95.1 97.7 99.6 98.8 99.3 98.3 98.0 97.4 98.7 100.5 100.8 101.8 102.0 103.0 103.6 104.4 105.4 105.4 106.5 101.1 101.6 102.7 102.8 103.6 104.1 104.6 105.6 101.2 103.2 102.2 101.5 108.0 108.9 109.3 110.9 106.9 108.0 108.2 108.9 94.9 98.1 101.6 103.4 103.1 103.9 105.5 106.3 108.3 107.3 108.7 110.6 110.9 111.8 1 15.5 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. State and local 81.6 85.0 87.5 90.5 94.9 97.9 100.0 102.1 103.6 106.7 96.8 98.6 100.9 101.6 102.2 102.3 102.4 102.9 103.2 103.8 104.5 105.6 106.5 107.1 107.7 QUANTITY AND PRICE INDEXES FOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND PERCENT CHANGES [Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Percent change from preceding period l Index numbers, 1992=100 Period 1982' 1983' 1984' 1985' 1986' 1987' 1988' 1989' 1990' 1991' 1992' 1993' 1994' 1995^ 1991: I' .... II' .. Ill' . IV' . 1992: I' .... II' .. III'. IV' . 1993: I' .... II' .. III'. IV' . 1994: I' .... II' .. Ill' . rv'. 1995: I' .... II' .. Ill' rv < > . Chain-type quantity index Current dollars 51.9 56.3 62.5 67.0 70.8 75.1 80.9 87.1 92.0 94.8 100.0 104.9 111.0 116.1 93.2 94.4 95.3 96.1 98.0 99.3 100.4 102.2 103.2 104.1 105.2 107.0 108.5 110.3 111.9 113.4 114.5 115.2 116.9 117.7 Chain-type price index 70.2 73.2 75.9 78.6 80.6 83.1 86.1 89.7 93.6 97.3 74.0 77.0 82.3 85.3 87.9 90.5 93.9 97.1 98.3 97.3 100.0 102.2 105.8 107.9 96.9 97.3 97.5 97.8 98.9 99.5 100.3 101.3 101.3 101.7 102.3 103.5 104.2 105.4 106.3 107.2 107.3 107.4 108.4 108.6 100.0 102.6 105.0 107.6 96.3 97.0 97.7 98.3 99.1 99.8 100.2 100.9 101.8 102.4 102.8 103.4 104.1 104.6 105.2 105.8 106.7 107.3 107.9 108.5 1 Percent changes shuwn here are calculated using unrounded data. Quarterly percent changes are at annual rates. Note.—See Note, p. 1. Implicit price deflator Chain-type quantity index Current dollars 4.1 8.4 11.0 7.1 5.8 6.1 7.6 7.7 5.6 3.0 5.5 4.9 5.8 4.6 2.8 4.9 4.0 3.6 8.2 5.3 4.6 7.3 3.8 3.8 4.3 7.0 5.4 6.8 6.1 5.4 3.9 2.8 5.8 2.7 70.1 73.1 75.9 78.4 80.6 83.1 86.1 89.7 93.6 97.3 100.0 102.6 105.0 107.5 96.3 97.0 97.7 98.3 99.1 99.8 100.2 100.9 101.8 102.4 102.8 103.4 104.1 104.6 105.2 105.8 106.7 107.3 107.8 108.3 Chain-type price index -2.1 4.0 6.8 3.7 3.0 2.9 3.8 3.4 1.3 -1.0 2.7 Implicit price deflator 6.3 4.2 3.8 3.4 2.6 3.1 3.7 4.2 4.4 3.9 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.5 4.8 3.2 2.8 2.5 3.4 2.8 1.5 2.8 3.8 2.2 1.8 2.3 2.8 1.9 2.4 22 3.3 2.5 1.7 1.0 1.0 4.7 2.5 3.0 4.3 .0 1.7 2.3 4.7 2.5 4.8 3.6 3.2 .6 .5 3.6 .9 6.3 4.2 3.9 3.3 2.7 3.1 3.7 4.2 4.3 4.0 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.4 5.1 3.1 2.9 2.5 3.3 2.7 1.5 2.9 3.8 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.4 22 3.2 2.3 2 '2 9 -7 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS-OUTPUT. COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of real output (dollars) 1 Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars) 1986' 1987' 1988' 1989' 1990' 1991' 1992' 1993' 1994' 1990: IV' . 1991: IV' . 1992: IV' . 1993: I' ... II' .. Ill' IV' . 1994: I' ... II' .. Ill' IV' . 1995: I' ... II' .. ll\p 1 Current dollars Chained (1992) dollars 2,416.3 2,589.6 2,805.2 2,950.9 3,084.0 3,132.1 3,262.6 3,437.5 3,688.4 3,097.4 3,159.5 3,341.7 3,345.3 3,407.8 3,458.7 3,538.0 3,594.4 3,664.9 3,707.2 3,786.9 3,796.4 3,832.4 3,916.1 2,832.4 2,967.0 3,122.1 3,175.4 3,212.5 3,168.8 3,262.6 3,380.0 3,567.1 3,190.2 3,182.5 3,328.5 3,304.0 3,357.4 3,398.4 3,460.1 3,496.2 3,554.5 3,576.2 3,641.5 3,631.6 3,646.1 3,715.1 Total cost and profit 2 Output is measured by GDP of nonfinancial corporate business in chained (1992) dollars. This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. 3 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. 2 0.853 .873 .898 .929 .960 .988 1.000 1.017 1.034 .971 .993 1.004 1.012 1.015 1.018 1.023 1.028 1.031 1.037 1.040 1.045 1.051 1.054 4 Consumption of fixed capital 0.100 .100 .101 .106 .110 .116 .115 .115 .116 .112 .116 .113 .116 .115 .116 .114 .122 .114 .114 .113 .114 .116 .115 Indirect business tax, etc.3 0.083 .083 .084 .088 .092 .100 .103 .105 .106 .095 .103 .105 .105 .105 .105 .107 .107 .106 .107 .106 .109 .110 .108 Compensation of employees 0.566 .578 .591 .614 .640 .660 .673 .679 .682 .649 .667 .672 .681 .679 .679 .676 .679 .681 .683 .686 .694 .698 .695 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Total 0.069 .076 .082 .075 .072 .070 .077 .088 .102 .068 .068 .085 .079 .085 .089 .098 .093 .103 .105 .108 .100 .100 .109 Profits tax liability 0.027 .031 .033 .031 .030 .027 .028 .031 .036 .030 .027 .030 .028 .031 .029 .034 .035 .036 .037 .039 .039 .038 .038 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Note.—See Note, p. 1. Sources: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Profits after 0.042 .044 .050 .044 .042 .043 .049 .057 .066 .039 .041 .055 .050 .055 .059 .065 .058 .067 .068 .070 .061 .062 .071 Net interest 0.035 .035 .039 .046 .046 .042 .032 .029 .027 .046 .039 .030 .031 .030 .029 .028 .027 .028 .028 .027 .028 .028 .027 NATIONAL INCOME (Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates| National income Period 4,362.1 4,611.9 4,719.7 4,950.8 5,194.4 5,495.1 1989 ' 1990' .. 1991 ' .. 1992' 1993' .. 1994' 1995C .. 1990- IV' 1991: Compensation of employees' 4,667.2 4,770.0 5,061.7 5,094.9 5,159.9 5,213.0 5,309.9 5,300.5 5,493.7 5,551.2 5,635.0 5,697.7 5,738.9 5,849.2 IV' 1992- IV' 1993- I' II' Ill' IV' 1994- I' II' III' IV' 1995: I' II' ID' PvV Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Farm 3,151.6 3,352.8 3,457.9 3,644.9 3,809.4 4,008.3 4,209.4 3,395.9 3,511.0 3,707.0 3,744.1 3,787.8 3,834.8 3,871.0 3,933.6 3,993.3 4,022.7 4,083.7 4,141.6 4,178.9 4,235.9 4,281.1 Nonfarni 36.8 36.3 30.2 38.0 32.0 350 28.7 33.9 310 37.3 31.5 358 26.1 34.4 40.8 35.1 31.9 32.3 285 27.6 281 30.6 Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total Total 52.4 61.4 68.4 80.6 102.5 116.6 122.2 67.3 73.0 92.3 98.4 102.9 104.1 104.5 101.1 121.0 122.2 121.9 120.6 121.6 120.9 125.7 308.2 324.6 332.7 371.5 388.1 415.9 449.2 327.1 341.1 385.1 382.0 381.8 388.1 400.5 380.3 419.3 426.8 437.1 443.5 447.1 451.5 454.7 1 Includes employer contributions for social insurant*. (See also p. 5.) NOTE.—See Note. p. I. Inventory valuation adjustment Profits before tax 356.4 369.5 382.5 401.4 464.5 526.5 330.6 358.2 378.2 398.9 457.7 514.9 348.1 371.7 374.2 406.4 464.3 528.2 365.5 379.6 427.7 426.4 449.0 469.6 512.8 455.9 531.5 549.8 568.9 559.6 561.1 614.9 356.5 375.2 420.5 421.4 443.2 465.9 500.4 467.8 513.4 531.0 547.6 542.2 546.1 600.3 376.7 382.8 420.3 436.0 458.8 458.0 504.5 471.7 523.2 547.5 570.4 594.1 588.4 609.6 -17.5 -13.5 4.0 -7.5 -6.6 -13.3 -27.6 -20.3 -7.6 .2 -14.6 -15.6 7.9 -4.0 -3.9 -9.8 -16.5 -22.8 -51.9 -42.3 -93 -6.8 Capital consumption adjustment 25.8 11.3 4.3 2.5 6.7 11.6 15.9 9.0 4.5 7.2 5.0 5.8 3.8 12.3 -11.8 18.1 18.8 21.3 17.4 15.0 14.6 16.5 Net interest 456.6 467.3 448.0 414.3 398.1 392.8 477.5 434.3 412.4 412.6 402.6 390.4 386.7 388.7 393.5 397.8 391.1 403.9 402.6 397.8 Source: Department of Omimcree, Bureau of Economic Analysis. REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES j Billions of chained (1992) dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates) Durable goods I'erioil 1989' .. 1990' 1991' ... 1992' . 1993' .. 1994' . 1995P .. 1990: IV' 1991: IV' 1992: IV' 1993: I' II' Ill' PvT' 1994: I' II' III' IV' 1995- I' II' III' IV Total personal consumption expenditures 4,064.6 4,132.2 4,105.8 4,219.8 4,339.7 4,471.1 4,577.4 4,116.4 4,109.1 4,282.3 4,290.0 4,319.0 4,359.7 4,390.0 4,418.8 4,457.7 4,485.8 4,522.3 4,530.9 4,568.8 4,600.4 4,609.7 Total durable f*oods 496.2 493.3 462.0 488.5 524.1 562.0 581.1 476.3 461.5 505.0 506.0 519.6 528.9 541.9 549.6 555.4 563.0 579.9 566.9 576.6 589.7 591.2 Motor vehicles and parts 230.3 224.3 193.2 206.9 218.6 228.2 221.3 210.0 194.6 213.9 210.8 219.0 219.1 225.4 230.3 226.7 226.4 229.4 216.2 220.7 225.9 222.3 Furnitun! am! household cqui|>ment 170.9 173.5 177.0 189.4 208.4 230.1 251.8 171.5 178.0 196.4 200.8 205.1 211.0 216.8 219.0 226.1 232.5 242.7 243.3 247.5 254.9 261.4 Other 96.4 96.6 91.8 92.3 97.2 104.2 109.7 95.5 88.9 94.6 94.5 95.5 98.9 99.9 100.4 103.0 104.7 108.8 108.9 109.9 110.5 109.6 Total nondurable goods Food 1,303.5 1,316.1 1,302.9 1,321.8 1,348.9 1,390.5 1,421.5 1,308.4 1,295.7 1,339.8 1,336.9 1,344.7 1,354.2 1,359.8 1,372.7 1,383.7 1,397.2 1,408.4 1,416.8 1,423.5 1,425.4 1,420.3 650.1 662.9 659.6 660.0 674.3 689.1 701.6 662.9 656.5 668.6 670.5 672.9 675.7 677.9 682.2 688.5 690.6 695.1 700.7 701.6 703.9 700.2 Clothing Gasoline and and oil shoes 220.7 217.9 215.9 225.5 233.3 247.2 257.1 215.1 213.1 230.9 227.4 232.3 235.0 238.6 241.1 243.3 249.0 255.5 254.6 258.0 258.9 257.1 1 Includes other items, not shown separately. NOTE.—Data reflect benchmark revisions released in January 1996. Si* • Purvey of Current Ruxiiwxx fur details on the revisions. f< 108.1 107.3 103.4 106.6 109.1 110.4 113.3 104.9 102.5 107.3 108.2 108.0 110.9 109.3 108.8 109.5 111.6 111.6 113.4 113.6 112.5 113.5 Retail sales of new passenger cars (millions of units) Services Nondurable goods Fuel oil and coal Other 12.6 11.2 10.8 10.9 10.7 10.3 10.3 9.9 10.6 10.7 10.9 10.6 10.7 10.6 11.4 10.0 10.2 9.6 9.9 10.6 10.0 10.6 311.5 2,262.3 316.7 2,321.3 313.2 2,341.0 318.8 2,409.4 321.6 2,466.8 333.6 2,519.4 339.4 2,575.7 315.6 2,331.2 312.8 2,352.0 322.3 2,437.6 319.9 2,447.0 320.9 2,454.9 322.0 2,476.7 323.4 2,488.6 329.2 2,497.0 332.4 2,519.0 336.0 2,526.3 336.7 2,535.1 338.3 2,548.1 340.0 2,569.6 340.3 2,586.3 339.1 2,598.8 Total services ' Housing 614.6 627.2 635.2 646.8 655.0 668.2 681.9 630.6 638.6 650.6 652.2 653.5 655.9 658.5 662.1 666.1 670.7 674.1 677.4 680.0 683.2 687.0 Medical care 575.8 602.8 621.6 646.6 658.8 668.8 684.0 610.6 630.8 652.2 656.6 657.5 659.7 661.4 663.2 667.6 670.4 674.2 677.8 681.3 686.1 690.7 Domestics 7.1 6.9 6.1 6.3 6.7 7.3 7.1 6.6 6.1 6.4 6.3 6.9 6.7 7.1 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.0 6.9 7.5 7.3 Imports 2.7 2.4 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 liei-ause of the formula used for calculating real GDI*, the chained (1992) dollar estimates »- tllc * M «"••!>">»"<« >>» •»' «M to the chained-dollar value of GDI- or to any intermnliSource: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $11.5 billion (annual rate) in November, following a rise of $45.2 billion in October. Wages and salaries fell $3.3 billion in November after rising $30.1 billion in October. (Series revised.) SILUONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BIWONS OF DOLIARS* (RATIO SCALEI 7,000 7,000 6,000 6,000 5,000 5,000 4,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 2,000 2,000 -V 1,400 1,400 OTHER INCOME 800 800 TRANSFER PAYMENTS 400 I IIII 1987 I I I II 1988 1989 1990 I I I I I I I I l l l I 400 1991 1993 1992 1994 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1995 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Total personal income Period 1986"" 1987' 1988r 1989' 1990' 1991 r 1992' 1993' 1994' 1994- NoV Dee' 1995- Jan' Feb' Aprr July Sent' Oct . .. . 3,647.5 3,877.3 4,172.8 4,489.3 4,791.6 4,968.5 5,264.2 5,479.2 5,750.2 5,882.3 5,922.1 5,977.0 5,993.7 6,015.9 6,053.9 6,046.2 6,085.5 6,120.2 6,122.3 6,153.1 6,198.3 6,209.8 Wage anil salary disbursements ' 2,116.5 2,272.7 2,453.6 2,598.1 2,757.5 2,827.6 2,986.4 3,090.6 3,241.1 3,308.6 3,330.6 3,354.5 3,360.8 3,369.4 3,399.2 3,374.7 3,405.9 3,435.7 3,430.3 3,451.8 3,481.9 3,478.6 Proprietors' income 3 Other labor income ' 2 216.0 235.4 251.7 273.1 300.6 322.7 351.3 380.9 402.2 407.8 408.4 416.2 417.7 419.2 420.6 422.0 423.4 424.6 425.8 427.2 428.7 430.2 1 The total of wage arid salary disburst^merits ami other lalx>r income (lifters from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in tliat it excludes employer contributions for social insurance arid the excess of wage accruals over wajie disbursements. -Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Kami 25.2 32.3 28.2 36.8 36.3 30.2 38.0 32.0 35.0 32.4 31.7 29.4 28.4 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.0 27.3 27.8 29.4 30.0 Nonfarm 242.6 260.6 294.7 308.2 324.6 332.7 371.5 388.1 415.9 436.7 440.5 442.8 443.0 444.7 445.5 446.2 449.7 449.4 452.5 455.1 458.1 458.6 licnta! ineome of persons 4 42.3 45.5 55.7 52.4 61.4 68.4 80.6 102.5 116.6 121.8 122.6 122.2 120.5 119.1 120.4 122.1 122.3 120.6 118.0 116.4 120.1 123.6 Persona! dividend income 105.1 101.1 109.9 130.9 142.9 153.6 159.4 186.8 199.6 207.0 208.4 208.8 209.4 210.4 211.5 212.1 212.9 214.3 215.6 217.4 219.5 221.9 Personal interest income 543.3 560.0 595.5 674.5 704.4 699.2 667.2 647.3 661.6 677.8 683.9 695.8 702.3 707.6 711.4 714.1 716.4 717.9 719.4 720.5 721.5 722.4 4 Transfer payments r> 518.6 543.3 577.6 626.0 687.8 769.9 858.2 910.7 956.3 972.8 980.3 996.9 1,001.7 1,008.4 1,010.6 1,018.8 1,021.0 1,026.6 1,028.9 1,034.1 1,038.1 1,043.4 With capital consumption adjustment. 'Consists mainly of social insurance l>enefits, direct relief, and veterans payments, r NOTK.—Sec Note, p. 1. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. IjOSS: Personal contributions for social insurance 162.1 173.7 194.2 210.8 223 9 235.8 248.4 259.6 278.1 282.8 284.4 289.6 290.1 290.9 293.0 291.4 293.6 295.9 295.6 297.2 299.1 299.0 DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME According to advance estimates, per capita disposable personal income in chained (1992) dollars rose in the fourth quarter of 1995. (Series revised.) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE] BIWONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE] 6,000 2,500 2,000 DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE) 22,000 DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE] 22,000 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 20,000 CHAINED (1992] DOLLARS 18,000 ---r— — — — 16,000 r--~ 14,000 *••< i.-*"" ^^ -^-^1 12,000 -^r \i Z^=* <*fSZZ P"^*""" — L^ „ - •" 20,000 18,000 16,000 -— — 14,000 c JRRENT DOLLARS 12,000 ^-" 10,000 10,000 ^ 8,000 1982 I I I ! 1983 1984 1 I i I I i i i i i E 1986 1985 1987 * ! 1 1988 i i i i i i 1989 1990 1 1 1 1991 1 t 1 1992 I I I 1 1993 1994 1 ! i i i 8,000 1995 COUNCIL OF KONQMtC ADVISERS Personal income Period Less: Personal tax and nontax payments Equals: Disposable personal income Less: Personal outlays1 Equals: Personal saving Disposable personal income in btllioas of chained (1992) dollars Per capita disposable personal income Current dollars Billions of dollars 1987' .. . 1988' 1989 ' 1990r 1991 ' 1992 r 1993' 1994' 1995*1 3,877.3 4,172.8 4,489.3 4,791.6 4,968.5 5,264.2 5,479.2 5,750.2 6,101.0 514.2 532.0 594.9 624.8 624.8 650.5 689.9 731.4 794.6 3,363.1 3,640.8 3,894.5 4,166.8 4,343.7 4,613.7 4,789.3 5,018.8 5,306.4 Chained (1992) dollars Per capita personal consumption expenditures Current dollars Chained (1992) dollars Dollars 3,194,7 3,451.7 3,706.7 3,958.1 4,097.4 4,341.0 4,572.9 4,826.5 5,065.7 168.4 189.1 187.8 208.7 246.4 272.6 216.4 192.4 240.7 4,154.1 4,318.1 4,403.7 4,484.6 4,486.4 4,613.7 4,666.2 4,775.6 4,933.5 13,849 14,857 15,742 16,670 17,191 18,062 18,552 19,253 20,169 Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population, including Armed Forces overseas (thousands) 2 Percent 17,106 17,621 17,801 17,941 17,756 18,062 18,075 18,320 18,752 12,743 13,669 14,531 15,360 15,732 16,520 17,253 18,025 18,714 15,740 16,211 16,430 16,532 16,249 16,520 16,810 17,152 17,399 0.7 3.0 1.0 .8 -1.0 1.7 .1 1.4 2.4 5.0 5.2 4.8 5.0 5.7 5.9 4.5 3.8 4.5 245,061 247,387 249,956 252,680 255,432 258,159 260,681 263,090 17,802 17,759 18,277 17,899 18,068 18,081 18,251 17,966 18,361 18,407 18,544 18,672 18,634 18,794 18,907 15,564 15,871 16,877 16,985 17,164 17,335 17,528 17,707 17,920 18,139 18,330 18,447 18,682 18,831 18,895 16,398 16,194 16,692 16,682 16,754 16,865 16,937 17,013 17,123 17,187 17,283 17,282 17,388 17,465 17,459 -3.8 -.0 6.7 -8.0 3.8 .3 3.8 -6.1 9.1 1.0 3.0 2.8 -.8 3.5 2.4 5.0 6.0 6.1 4.3 4.8 4.3 4.7 2.8 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.8 4.0 4.4 4.9 251,031 253,743 256,543 257,155 257,787 258,501 259,192 259,738 260,327 261,004 261,653 262,181 262,748 263,399 264,032 242,842 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 19901991: 1992: 1993: TV IV IV I' II' IIP IV 1994- I' II' Ill' IV' 1995- I' II' III' IVP . . 4,868.6 5,048.9 5,415.3 5,348.7 5,458.4 5,500.5 5,609.1 5,562.4 5,743.0 5,801.7 5,893.9 5,995.5 6,061.9 6,135.6 6,210.9 627.1 632.5 674.8 662.4 686.9 696.4 713.8 705.5 740.8 731.3 748.1 770.0 801.5 798.4 808.3 4,241.5 4,416.4 4,740.5 4,686.3 4,771.6 4,804.1 4,895.3 4,856.9 5,002.2 5,070.4 5,145.8 5,225.5 5,260.4 5,337.2 5,402.5 4,027.9 4,149.8 4,450.0 4,486.6 4,542.6 4,599.3 4,663.2 4,723.0 4,791.9 4,863.0 4,927.9 4,972.2 5,049.0 5,104.6 5,137.2 213.5 266.6 290.5 199.6 228.9 204.9 232.1 133.9 210.3 207.4 217.8 253.3 211.4 232.6 265.4 4,468.8 4,506.3 4,688.7 4,602.8 4,657.6 4,674.0 4,730.4 4,666.4 4,779.8 4,804.2 4,852.0 4,895.5 4,896.1 4,950.3 4,992.0 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by persons, and personal transfer layments to rest of the world (net). 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. 16,896 17,405 18,478 18,223 18,510 18,585 18,887 18,699 19,215 19,427 19,666 19,931 20,021 20,263 20,462 Note.—See Note, p. 1. Source: Department, of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the second quarter of 1995, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income fell $9.9 billion (annual rate) and net farm income fell $12.1 billion. BILUONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILUONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 240 200 160 X. . ^ -• r-^ 1—"""' • r—~~~^~ ^1 s* 1 . 169 \"\ \ 1 120 240 200 120 GRO. ,S FARM INCOME 80 80 60 60 \ *\ \ \ 20 ' '-\ '\ 40 \\J/' ' "\ ll / " •»N / "••v \ ^" 40 \' * NET FARM INCOME V ^ ^ ' ,-' ;\/ ', ' 1" I \ / \/ 20 ' 1 i K V 'M V ' M 1 ' ' 10 1© 1' l' i ! 1 i 1 1982 1983 i \ 1984 \ \ 1985 \ l l l 1986 i i i 1987 i i i 1988 i i i 1 1989 1990 1 ! i i i i 1991 1992 i i t i i 1993 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE ! 1 1 1994 1995 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from farming Gross farm income Period Cash marketing receipts Total» Total 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1993- I II III IV .. . ... 1994: I II III rv 1995- I UP . .. 156.1 168.3 177.3 191.9 198.5 191.8 200.5 203.0 213.5 203.9 203.4 198.9 205.6 218.8 206.1 211.8 217.1 211.4 201.5 135.4 141.8 151.2 160.8 169.4 167.8 171.3 177.1 179.7 174.3 177.2 187.7 169.4 178.8 169.7 185.8 184.4 184.4 177.1 'Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. Livestock and products 71.6 76.0 79.6 83.9 89.2 85.8 85.6 90.0 88.1 83.7 87.9 101.3 87.3 92.0 82.8 97.6 79.9 87.5 78.0 Crops 63.8 65.8 71.6 76.9 80.3 82.0 85.7 87.1 91.6 90.6 89.3 86.3 82.1 86.8 86.9 88.2 104.5 96.9 99.1 Value of inventory changes2 -2.2 -2.3 -4.1 3.8 3.5 -.2 4.2 -4.5 8.7 -8.0 -6.3 -7.4 3.7 10.6 10.0 7.8 6.3 .6 .6 Production expenses 125.1 130.2 139.8 146.9 153.7 153.4 152.6 160.9 166.7 158.5 160.8 162.6 161.7 164.3 166.5 168.5 167.6 162.9 165.3 Net farm incoLne 31.1 38.0 37.5 45.0 44.8 38.4 47.9 42.1 46.7 45.4 42.7 36.3 43.9 54.5 39.6 43.3 49.5 48.4 36.3 NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Credit Corporation loans and operator households. Quarterly data plotted for 1989 through 1992 in chart do not reflect, previous revisions to annual data in table. Sources: Department of Agriculture. CORPORATE PROFITS In the third quarter of 1995, according to current estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $21.2 billion (annual rate) and profits after tax rose $11.0 billion. (Series revised.) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS AiO BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 650 SEASONAUY ADJUSTS) ANNUAL RATES 600 / 550 450 / PROFITS BEFORE TAX 400 y 350 300 200 V ^ ^ >\ --—v_ r ^-^ S* s~~ •^--~~\ /• "_ _. / / — . jr. •/" ~ 100 / r^ ^ ~~_ 50 '"' ^t i""~X t" L/ i t i 1982 ,' i i i 1983 1 1 1 i i i '•uj-r' 1985 1986 1984 X "" / r\ / t s ™^ \ 300 ,'\ / 250 . • —.•** ~ s'~~~ - /" / " \/ ^/ / \ 150 fs /\ - / ^ / 100 - / \/ X ^ 50 UNDIJ TRIBUTED PROFITS i i i I I i i i I 1987 1988 1989 350 - y-» V /. k 200 TAXLLABILITY \ X ..^' "^ / - ^' / — ,/ '**•*' /" v\ ^/ 150 400 ,-' s ^ PROF TS AFTER!AX I 450 - V s / V,—s-\ J\r 500 - / S^ J 0 550 - -i 500 250 600 f~~S' i i i 1990 i i I 1 1991 1992 1 1 1 ] 1 1 1993 1994 COWKILOf SOURCE: DCPARTMENTOFCCJMMERCE 1 1 1 1 1 0 1995 ECONC )MKADVK£R5 I Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment ' Profits after tax Domestic industries Period Totals Total 1986rr 1987 1988' 1989 ' 1990' 1991' 1992' 1993' 1994' 1990: W 1991: W 1992: IV' 1993: I'll' ITJ' IV' 1994: I' II' IJJ' IV' 1995- I' II' Ill IVc 1 2 ;i 234.0 272.9 325.0 330.6 358.2 378.2 398.9 457.7 514.9 356.5 375.2 420.5 421.4 443.2 465.9 500.4 467.8 513.4 531.0 547.6 542.2 546.1 600.3 199.3 231.3 274.3 272.6 292.5 309.5 334.0 388.1 453.7 282.5 303.6 361.2 347.0 375.7 393.1 436.8 407.0 452.4 469.9 485.5 467.5 468.2 527.1 Financial 36.4 37.1 43.0 53.1 68.6 87.4 83.7 91.0 94.4 70.5 87.6 83.1 85.7 88.1 88.8 101.3 64.9 97.8 108.4 106.4 114.3 112.6 130.4 Total-' 162.9 194.2 231.2 219.6 223.8 222.1 250.3 297.2 359.3 212.1 216.1 278.1 261.2 287.6 304.3 335.4 342.1 354.6 361.5 379.0 353.2 355.6 396.7 Manufacturing Wholesale 60.2 85.0 115.1 109.3 112.3 92.7 96.3 109.7 142.7 108.4 83.8 105.1 90.4 108.4 106.0 134.0 145.3 134.2 142.8 148.4 134.7 137.8 153.2 22.9 16.7 19.3 20.4 17.2 20.6 23.0 25.5 34.5 16.9 17.0 28.3 17.9 28.6 27.0 28.7 28.8 39.5 34.3 35.4 29.7 26.4 31.2 Sue p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Includes rest of the world, riot shown separately. Includes industries not shown separately. Profits before tax Nonfinancial Tax liability Total Dividends Retail 23.7 23.9 19.6 20.7 20.6 26.1 32.2 39.2 42.2 22.8 28.6 37.3 36.3 38.1 42.4 39.8 38.3 43.2 43.7 43.6 222.6 293.6 354.3 348.1 371.7 374.2 406.4 464.3 528.2 376.7 382.8 420.3 436.0 458.8 458.0 504.5 471.7 523.2 547.5 570.4 36.0 36.6 42.5 594.1 588.4 609.6 106.5 127.1 137.0 141.3 140.5 133.4 143.0 163.8 195.3 139.7 135.2 149.7 151.5 162.6 159.3 181.7 171.4 192.8 203.4 213.5 217.3 214.2 224.5 116.1 166.5 217.3 206.8 231.2 240.8 263.4 300.5 332.9 237.1 247.6 270.6 284.6 296.2 298.6 322.7 110.2 107.0 116.8 138.9 151.9 163.1 169.5 197.3 211.0 152.0 165.3 180.4 190.2 195.8 200.2 202.9 300.3 330.4 344.1 356.8 204.4 208.8 212.5 218.5 221.7 224.6 '228.5 234.7 376.8 374.1 385.1 Note.—S«e Note, p. 1. Source: Department of (Vmmierce, Iliircau of Kronoinic Analysis. Undistributed profits 5.8 59.5 100.5 67.9 79.4 77.7 93.9 103.3 121.9 85.0 82.2 90.3 94.4 100.4 98.4 119.8 95.9 121.7 131.6 138.3 155.1 149.6 156.6 Inventory valuation adjustment 11.4 -20.7 -17.5 4.0 -7.5 -6.6 -13.3 -20.3 -7.6 .2 -15.6 7.9 -4.0 -9.8 -16.5 -22.8 -51.9 -42.3 '-9.3 -6.8 REAL GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT In the fourth quarter of 1995, according to advance estimates, nonresidential fixed investment in chained (1992) dollars rose $11.0 billion (annual rate) and residential investment rose $2.9 billion. There was an increase of $20.4 billion in inventories, following an increase of $33.2 billion in the third quarter. (Series revised.) BILLIONS OF CHAINED (1992) DOLLARS BILLIONS OF CHAINED (1992) DOLLARS 1,100 1,100 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AfWUAL RATES r 1,000 900 r— ' X"> 800 1 J 700 500 v ^ 800 ^ \^ \' " ^- -^_ ~s S *-_^ _ „ - - 900 -/ GROSS PRIVATE D DMESTIC 1 •JVESTMEI-4T _v y/ X 600 1,000 fS \ \ -*1 '--- 700 .*'' 600 .*-' 500 DNRESIDE FIX ED INVEST MENT X 400 400 RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT 300 300 \ • -.. -•„. --• 200 200 X' 100 / ~-x / 0 -100 CHANC3E IN BUSI NESS IN /ENTORIE. " —- \. i i i 1 1 1 i i i 111 1982 1983 1984 1985 t" N * •\ 100 '--.. '"-• f"^ s X — ^ 0 \ 1 1 1986 1 i i i |. i i i i i i i i l l l l l l 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE 1993 i ii 1 1 1 1994 1995 -100 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted animal rates] Change in business inventories Fixed investment Period 1986' 1987' 1988' igggr 1990' 1991' 1992' 1993' 1994' 1995/> 1990199119921993- IV' IV' IVr I' II' Ill' IV' 1994- I' II' ITJ' IV' 1995- I' II' in> Wf Gross private domestic investment 813.8 820.5 826.0 861.9 817.3 737.7 790.4 857.3 979.6 1,013.3 748.1 762.4 812.4 834.8 843.2 857.6 893.4 933.5 984.6 994.1 1,006.3 1,024.2 998.3 1,016.2 1,014.7 Nonresidential Total Total 805.0 799.4 818.3 832.0 805.8 741.3 783.4 836.4 921.1 977.9 774.4 742.0 805.8 815.4 821.1 835.4 873.5 892.4 911.4 930.8 949.7 969.6 966.1 981.0 994.8 NOTE.—See p. 10 for further detail on fixed investment by type. Data reflect benchmark revisions released in .January 199fi. See A uruei/ of Current Busin&tx for details on the revisions. 548.5 542.4 566.0 588.8 585.2 547.7 557.9 593.6 652.1 716.3 573.9 539.5 569.1 577.5 586.4 593.1 617.6 628.6 639.5 660.4 679.7 704.4 710.6 719.7 730.7 Structures 203.3 195.9 196.8 201.2 203.3 181.6 169.2 166.3 168.8 181.5 196.0 171.4 165.6 167.0 164.8 165.1 168.2 163.0 169.0 169.1 174.3 178.5 180.0 182.7 184.8 Producers' durable equipment Residential 345.9 346.9 369.2 387.6 381.9 366.2 388.7 427.6 484.1 536.1 377.9 368.1 403.5 410.5 421.7 428.2 449.8 466.5 471.2 492.4 506.4 257.0 257.6 252.5 243.2 220.6 193.4 225.6 242.7 268.9 262.5 200.3 202.4 236.7 237.9 234.8 242.2 255.8 263.6 271.6 270.3 270.3 265.9 256.6 262.3 265.2 527.1 531.9 538.2 547.2 Total Nonfarm 10.9 26.2 11.6 33.3 10.4 -30 7.3 19.1 58.9 34.7 -28.2 21.4 5.8 18.5 20.8 19.5 17.4 12.4 34.2 24.7 33.5 7.8 -1.2 1.9 26.4 46.8 38.4 -25.9 19.9 7.2 26.0 26.7 30.9 22.1 40.1 74.1 64.0 57.3 54.5 30.6 33.2 20.4 29.8 54.1 50.1 53.3 58.1 33.8 38.3 23.6 Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar estimates for the detailed com;xmerits ilt> not <uld to the chained-doilar value of GDP or to any intermediSource: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. REAL FIXED INVESTMENT BY TYPE [Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nonresidential Residential Producers' durable equipment Structures NonPeriod Total nonresidential 1986' 1987' 1988' 1989 ' 1990' 1991' 1992' 1993' 1994' 1995 f 1990- IV' 1991: IV' 1992- IV' 1993: I' II' III' IV' 1994- I' II' III' IV' 1995- I' II' III' IV P 548.5 542.4 566.0 588.8 585.2 547.7 557.9 593.6 652.1 716.3 573.9 539.5 569.1 577.5 586.4 593.1 617.6 628.6 639.5 660.4 679.7 704.4 710.6 719.7 730.7 Total i 203.3 195.9 196.8 201.2 203.3 181.6 169.2 166.3 168.8 181.5 196.0 171.4 165.6 167.0 164.8 165.1 168.2 163.0 169.0 169.1 174.3 178.5 180.0 182.7 184.8 dential buildings, including farm 144.5 142.4 145.3 150.2 152.0 126.9 113.2 112.8 117.7 128.1 143.8 116.4 109.8 111.4 110.6 112.7 116.3 112.4 117.8 117.4 12.3.3 125.4 126.8 129.2 131.0 Structures Information processing and related equipment Utilities 36.5 30.7 30.0 30.9 28.1 32.0 34.5 31.1 31.7 35.2 28.9 33.3 33.9 32.4 31.0 30.7 30.5 30.7 31.2 32.1 32.7 33.7 34.8 35.8 36.3 Mining exploration, shafts, and wells 15.8 15.5 15.8 13.9 16.1 15.7 13.3 14.8 12.6 11.3 16.3 14.4 13.7 15.2 15.2 14.6 14.2 13.4 13.3 12.2 11.5 12.5 10.7 11.0 11.1 Total Computers and peripheral equipment '- Other Industrial equipment 94.1 97.5 106.6 116.2 116.2 117.8 134.2 147.1 170,4 202.2 115.7 122.5 138.9 139.5 142.2 150.7 156.0 161.2 166.6 171.5 182.5 189.2 199.9 201.9 217.9 16.7 21.0 24.0 29.4 29.4 32.4 43.9 56.2 69.3 91.6 29.9 36.6 47.5 51.1 52.9 58.3 62.5 64.6 67.1 69.3 76.3 80.2 88.2 92.0 106.1 84.6 80.2 85.7 88.1 88.2 85.9 90.2 91.5 102.6 114.6 87.1 86.2 91.5 88.6 89.6 93.1 94.6 97.8 100.8 103.6 108.3 111.5 115.1 114.1 117.8 93.5 91.1 95.3 101.5 95.0 88.3 89.3 96.3 105.9 116.2 91.4 86.4 92.6 93.7 94.4 96.3 100.7 102.8 104.3 107.0 109.4 114.2 118.4 116.7 115.6 Total i 345.9 346.9 369.2 387.6 381.9 366.2 388.7 427.6 484.1 536.1 377.9 368.1 403.5 410.5 421.7 428.2 449.8 466.5 471.2 492.4 506.4 527.1 531.9 538.2 547.2 1 Includes other items, not shown separately. Includes new computers and peripheral equipment only. Includes producers' durable equipment, not shown separately. NOTE.—Data reflect benchmark revisions released in January 1996. See Survey of Current Business for details on the revisions. 2 3 portation and related equipment 85.6 82.1 87.1 78.9 81.2 81.7 86.2 97.5 111.7 118.5 82.8 81.6 91.5 93.0 99.5 95.0 102.7 109.0 105.3 115.9 116.5 121.7 114.8 120.4 117.0 Total residential 257.0 257.6 252.5 243.2 220.6 193.4 225.6 242.7 268.9 262.5 200.3 202.4 236.7 237.9 234.8 242.2 255.8 263.6 271.6 270.3 270.3 265.9 256.6 262.3 265.2 Total Single family Multifamily Other 251.3 251.6 246.3 237.0 214.5 187.6 219.5 236.3 262.1 255.5 194.4 196.6 230.5 231.7 228.5 235.7 249.2 257.0 264.8 263.5 263.2 258.9 249.7 255.3 258.2 119.3 128.3 126.1 121.9 110.4 96.4 116.5 127.1 140.5 127.5 97.6 105.1 121.6 124.9 122.5 126.3 134.4 140.3 143.5 140.8 137.4 133.0 123.0 125.8 128.1 35.9 28.3 23.4 23.3 19.7 15.4 13.1 10.4 13.5 17.7 18.6 14.2 11.5 10.3 10.0 10.7 10.6 11.2 12.8 14.5 15.6 16.8 17.4 17.8 18.7 95.8 94.8 96.8 91.8 84.4 75.7 89.9 98.8 108.1 110.8 78.1 77.3 97.4 96.5 96.0 98.7 104.1 105.4 108.4 108.2 110.4 109.3 109.8 112.2 111.9 Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. BUSINESS INVESTMENT AND PLANS [Billions of dollars] By in ustry Period 1993 1 19942 1995 3 Total expenditures 489.7 549.0 600.7 Total 488.2 518.6 587.3 Mining and construction 31.2 34.9 35.6 Manufacturing Total 134.1 144.1 181.8 Durable goods Nondurable goods 66.4 76.1 100.6 J Estimates collected from the i 993 Annual Capital Expenditures Survey. -Preliminary estimates collected from the February 1995 Investment Plans Survey. Final data are scheduled \tt be published in January 1996 in the 1994 Annual Capital Exjienditures Survey. 3 Revised estimates of planned capital expenditures from the September 1995 Investment 10 67.7 68.1 81.2 Transportation Communications 30.6 32.3 37.0 37.1 44.6 49.3 Utilities 41.3 38.0 41.8 Wholesale and retail trade Finance, insurance, and real estate 60.3 68.1 75.7 40.2 36.9 47.1 Sereices 111.8 118.5 117.3 Serving multiple industries 1.7 1.2 1.6 Not distributed by industry 1.4 30.4 13.5 Plans Survey. NOTE.—Data from Business Investment and Plans, 1993 to 1995, released September 22, 1995, For further information, see Annual Capita! Exfx-ndiliiffs: 1993, and Technical Note on New Annual Capital Expenditures Siu-vcy, September 1995. Source: Department of Commerce-, Bureau of the Census. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE In January, employment rose by 259,000 and unemployment rose by 294,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS * f~^\^^~— 134 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 130 130 CIVILIAN LABOR FOF CE —^ ~*s~^- r^^^^ - --\<—•", ^^ 118 ^.-'114 ^ r^— 126 122 134 ^ 126 122 -r' •~'~~' -"" -^\-X-. 118 114 CIVILIAN EMPLOYMES T - 110 - 110 106 106 X ^ — 4 1995 1996 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS i Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSAj Period Civilian noninstitutional population NSA Civilian labor force Nonagrieultural Total Agricultural Total Percent 2 Unemployment Civilian employment Part time for economic reasons 1 Total 15 weeks and over Not in labor force Labor force participation rate Employment/ population ratio Unemployment rate 19863 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 19944 1995 180,587 182,753 184,613 186,393 188.049 189,765 191,576 193,550 196,814 198,584 117,834 119,865 21.669 23,869 24,787 25,303 26 982 28,040 131,056 132,304 109,597 112,440 114,968 117,342 117,914 116,877 117,598 119,306 123,060 124,900 3,163 3,208 3.169 3.199 3,186 3,233 3,207 3,074 3,409 3,440 106,434 109,232 111,800 114,142 114.728 113,644 114,391 116,232 119,651 121,460 5,345 5,122 4,965 4,657 4,860 5,767 6,116 6,106 4,414 4,279 8,2.37 7,425 6,701 6,528 6,874 8,426 9,384 8,734 7,996 7,404 2,232 1,983 1,610 1 ,375 1 ,504 2,323 3,354 3,052 2,860 2,363 62,752 62,888 62,944 62,523 63,262 64,462 64,593 65,509 65,758 66,280 65.3 65.6 65.9 66.5 66.4 66.0 66.3 66.2 66.6 66.6 60.7 61 .5 62.3 63.0 62.7 61.6 61.4 61.6 62.5 62.9 7.0 6.2 5.5 5.3 5.5 6.7 7.4 6.8 6.1 5.6 1995- Jan Feh Mar 197,753 197,886 198,007 198,148 198.286 198,452 198,615 198,801 199,005 199,192 199,355 199,508 132.136 132,308 132,511 132,737 131,811 131,869 132,518 132,211 132,591 132,648 132,442 132,284 24,639 25.125 25,274 25,072 24,319 24,485 24,959 24,779 25,140 25,399 25,010 124,904 3,575 3,656 3.698 3,594 3,357 3,451 3,409 3,362 3,273 3,455 3,276 3,306 121,064 121.409 121,576 121.478 120,962 121,034 121,550 121,417 121,867 121,944 121,734 121,598 4,430 4,187 4.347 4,171 4,289 4,185 4,234 4,316 4,451 4,255 4,272 4,326 7,498 7,183 7,237 7,665 7,492 7,384 7,559 7,431 7,451 7,249 7,432 7,380 2,386 2,298 2,266 2,505 2,585 2,299 2.319 2,380 2,352 2,296 2,297 2,307 65,617 65,578 65,496 65,412 66,476 66,583 66,096 66,590 66,414 66,544 66,913 67,224 66.8 66.9 66.9 67.0 66.5 66.4 66.7 66.5 66.6 66.6 66.4 66.3 63.0 63.2 63.3 63.1 62.7 62.7 62 9 62.8 62.9 63.0 62.7 62.6 5.7 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.6 199.634 132,837 125.163 3.548 121,615 3,934 7,674 2.343 66,797 66.5 62.7 5.8 Mav July Sept Get Nov Dec 1996: Ja.i 1 Persons at. work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc. 2 Civilian labor force (or employment.) as percent of civilian noninstitutional population; and unemployment, as percent of civilian labor force. 3 Not strictly comparable with earlier data. 4 Data beginning January 1994 ait' nut directly eomparaMe with data for earlier periods. See Empfoymfnt and Earnings, February 1994. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In January, the unemployment rate rose slightly, to 5.8 percent. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 15 15 10 10 1992 1992 1996 UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) Period 1986 1987 1988 1989 . 1990 1991 1992 . 1993 2 1994 1995 . 1995: Jan Peb Mar Apr May June July Aue Sept Get Nov Dec 1996: Jan 1 All civilian workers 7.0 6.2 5.5 5.3 5.5 6.7 7.4 6.8 6.1 5.6 5.7 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.8 Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over 6.1 5.4 4.8 4.5 4.9 6.3 7.0 6.4 5.4 4.8 5.0 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.1 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.5 4.9 4.9 4.9 6.2 5.4 4.9 4.7 4.8 5.7 6.3 5.9 5.4 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.2 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.8 4.6 5.1 Both sexes 16-19 years 18.3 16.9 15.3 15.0 15.5 18.6 20.0 19.0 17.6 17.3 16.7 17.6 16.1 17.5 17.6 16.4 18.2 17.7 17.5 17.1 17.9 18.3 18.0 White 6.0 5.3 4.7 4.5 4.7 6.0 6.5 6.0 5.3 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.7 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 Revise*! definition; for details, see Kmplfti/mtmt and Earningx, February 1994. Data beginning January 1994 are riot directly comparable with data for earlier periods. See Employment ami Earning*, February 1994. 2 12 By selected groups By race By sex and age Black and other 13.1 11.6 10.4 10.0 10.1 11.1 12.7 11.7 10.5 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.2 9.8 9.1 9.8 10.1 10.2 10.2 9.4 8.9 9.3 9.4 Black Experienced wage and salary workers 14.5 13.0 11.7 11.4 11.3 12.4 14.1 12.9 11.5 10.4 10.2 10.1 9.8 10.7 9.9 10.6 11.1 11.3 11.3 9.9 9.4 10.2 10.5 6.6 5.8 5.2 5.0 5.3 6.5 7.1 6.5 5.9 5.4 5.4 5.1 5.2 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 Married men, spouse present Women who maintain families Full-time workers ' Part-time workers ' 9.8 9.2 8.1 8.1 8.2 9.1 9.9 9.5 8.9 8.0 8.9 8.1 7.6 9.0 8.0 8.4 8.5 7.0 8.0 7.9 7.7 6.6 8.3 6.9 6.0 5.3 5.1 5.4 6.7 7.4 6.8 6.1 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.6 5.5 5.7 7.4 6.9 6.4 6.2 6.3 6.9 7.4 7.1 6.0 6.0 6.2 6.0 5.8 6.3 6.1 6.3 6.6 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.0 4.4 3.9 3.3 3.0 3.4 4.4 5.0 4.4 3.7 3.3 3.4 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.1 3.3 3.1 3.3 N()TK.—Data relate to persons age l(i years and over. Soum>: Department of Lalxn-, llureau of Ijabor Statistics. SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In January, the percentage of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks rose; the percentages for 5-14 weeks and for 27 weeks and over fell; and the percentage for 15-26 weeks was unchanged. The mean duration of unemployment fell to 15.7 weeks and the median duration fell to 8.1 weeks. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION PERCENT DISTRIBUTION * 70 70 10 - * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED JV BEGINNING JANUARY 1994, JOB IO5ERS AND PERSONS WHO COMPLETED TEMPORARY JOBS. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Duration of unemployment Period Unemployment (thousands) Percent distribution Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 41.9 43.7 46.0 48.6 46.1 40.1 34.9 36.2 34.1 36.5 39.4 36.8 35.5 34.8 34.7 37.1 34.5 36.0 38.3 37.1 37.6 36.4 38.6 31.0 29.6 30.0 30.3 32.0 32.3 29.4 28.9 30.1 31.6 28.5 30.7 32.6 32.1 30.8 31.8 34.8 32.3 30.3 31.8 31.7 32.7 30.6 Reason for unemployment: percent distribution State ' programs Number of weeks 15-26 weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Median 12.7 12.7 12.0 11.2 11.8 14.5 15.2 14.6 15.5 14.6 13.9 15.4 12.9 14.7 17.1 14.8 13.6 15.3 14.3 14.5 14.0 14.5 14.5 14.4 14.0 12.1 9.9 10.1 13.0 20.6 20.4 20.3 17.3 18.2 17.1 18.9 18.4 17.4 16.3 17.2 16.3 17.1 16.6 16.7 16.4 16.3 15.0 14.5 13.5 11.9 12.1 13.8 17.9 18.1 18.8 16.6 16.7 16.9 17.5 17.7 16.9 15.6 16.5 16.3 16.3 16.2 16.5 16.2 15.7 6.9 6.5 5.9 4.8 5.4 6.9 8.8 8.4 9.2 8.3 7.9 7.8 7.9 8.5 9.0 7.5 9.1 8.7 8.0 8.1 7.9 8.2 8.1 Job losers1 Job leavers Reentrants New entrants 26.2 26.6 27.0 28.2 27.4 24.8 23.7 24.6 34.8 34.1 33.4 34.5 33.8 35.8 32.9 34.5 34.1 34.2 34.6 34.5 33.7 32.5 31.8 12.5 12.4 12.2 10.4 9.5 8.9 9.5 10.0 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.1 8.4 8.2 7.0 7.4 7.5 7.8 8.3 7.6 7.7 8.1 8.6 Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) 2 Weekly average, thousands 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 19943 1995 1995- Jan Feb Mar Jnlv Sept Get Nov Dec 1996- Jan 1 8,237 7,425 6,701 6,528 6,874 8,426 9,384 8,734 7,996 7,404 7,498 7,183 7,237 7,665 7,492 7,384 7559 7,431 7.451 7,249 7,432 7,380 7,674 Beginning January 1994, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs. Includes Staff (50 Slates, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), and Federal (UCFE). Railroad (RR) programs included through 1993. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation or Emergency Unemployment Compensation programs. 3 Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods. See E-mploymfnt and Earnings, February 1994. 2 48.9 48.0 46.1 45.7 48.3 54.7 56.4 54.6 47.7 46.9 49.2 46.6 46.6 45.5 48.4 46.7 47.5 46.2 45.2 47.6 47.2 46.8 49.0 12.3 13.0 14.7 15.7 14.8 11.6 10.4 10.8 9.9 11.1 9.3 10.8 11.3 10.5 11.7 11.4 10.9 11.8 11.9 10.4 11.5 12.5 10.7 2,643 2,300 2,081 2.158 2,522 3,342 3.245 2,751 '2,670 2,575 2,515 2,518 2,498 2,488 2,552 2,633 2,685 2,626 2,613 2,658 2,634 2,665 "2,670 378 328 310 330 388 447 408 341 340 356 335 338 342 352 374 377 375 342 351 362 374 365 376 2,739 2,369 2,135 2,205 2,575 3,406 3,348 2,845 '2,739 2,636 3,275 3,173 2,949 2,721 2,476 2,398 2,635 2,461 2,197 2,292 2,421 2,668 "3,491 NOTE.—Data relate to persons age 16 yeai-s of age and over (except for insured unemployment and initial claims). Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey fell by 201,000 in January. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) 120 110 100 90 SERVICE-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 80 70 60 50 40 GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 30 .V. 11111 III I 20 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1996 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS IThousands of wage and salary workers: ' seasonally adjusted] Goods-producing industries Total nonagricultural employment Period 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995? 1995- Jan Feb MaiApr Hay June July Aug Sept Of r Nov Deef 1996: Jan? . . 99,344 101,958 105,210 107,895 109,419 108,256 108,604 110,730 114,034 116,609 115,810 116,123 116,302 116,310 116,248 116,547 116,575 116,838 116,932 117,000 117,212 117,373 117,172 Service-producing industries Manufacturing Total 2 24,533 24,674 25,125 25,254 24,905 23,745 23,231 23,352 23,913 24,228 24,293 24,324 24,370 24,331 24,228 24,240 24,156 24,165 24,157 24,159 24,134 24,184 24,124 struction 4,810 4,958 5,098 5,171 5,120 4,650 4,492 4,668 5,010 5,246 5,201 5,213 5,256 5,242 5,190 5,230 5,226 5,233 5,262 5,287 5,295 5,302 5,315 Total 18,947 18,999 19,314 19,391 19,076 18,406 18,104 18,075 18,303 18,404 18,502 18,523 18,525 18,506 18,456 18,428 18,353 18,357 18,322 18,301 18,272 18,316 18,244 Traus- NonDurable durable goods goods 11,195 11,154 11,363 11,394 11,109 10,569 10,277 10,221 10,431 10,595 10,596 10,622 10,633 10,632 10,611 10,597 10,569 10,587 10,572 10,565 10,553 10,613 10,581 7,752 7,845 7,951 7,997 7,968 7,837 7,827 7,854 7,872 7,809 7,906 7,901 7,892 7,874 7,845 7,831 7,784 7,770 7,750 7,736 7,719 7,703 7,663 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagrieultural establishments who received pay tor any part, of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic sei-vants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total in this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment, of the Chilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employecl persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid "for the time off; and which are based on a sample 14 Total 74,811 77,284 80,086 82,642 84,514 84,511 85,373 87,378 90,121 92,381 91,517 91,799 91,932 91,979 92,020 92,307 92,419 92,673 92,775 92,841 93,078 93,189 93,048 lion and public utilities 5,247 5,362 5,514 5,625 5,793 5,762 5,721 5,829 6,006 6,194 6,129 6,156 6,175 6,184 6,177 6,192 6,195 6,217 6,206 6,217 6,240 6,251 6,242 Wholesale trade 5,761 5,848 6,030 6,187 6,173 6,081 5,997 5,981 6,140 6,323 6,251 6,275 6,287 6,300 6,298 6,320 6,333 6,340 6,346 6,359 6,373 6,393 6,389 Retail trade 17,880 18,422 19,023 19,475 19,601 19,284 19,356 19,773 20,437 20,840 20,760 20,794 20,760 20,762 20,747 20,798 20,851 20,837 20,899 20,897 20,989 20,969 20,928 Finance, insurance, Services and real estate 6,273 6,533 6,630 6,668 6,709 6,646 6,602 6,757 6,933 6,949 6,927 6,929 6,938 6,924 6,925 6,930 6,938 6,947 6,957 6,977 6,991 7,001 7,009 22,957 24,110 25,504 26,907 27,934 28,336 29,052 30,197 31,488 32,796 32,228 32,404 32,524 32,548 32,630 32,784 32,820 32,986 33,047 33,076 33,185 33,250 33,167 Government Total 16,693 17,010 17,386 17,779 18,304 18,402 18,645 18,841 19,118 19,279 19,222 19,241 19,248 19,261 19,243 19,283 19,282 19,346 19,320 19,315 19,300 19,325 19,313 Federal 2,899 2,943 2,971 2,988 3,085 2,966 2,969 2,915 2,870 2,821 2,838 2,831 2,828 2,826 2,831 2,838 2,834 2,825 2,812 2,801 2,800 2,794 2,788 of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. In the series shown here, persons who work at more than one job are counted each time they appear on a payroll, in contrast to the series shown on p. 11, where persons are counted only once—as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force. 2 Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTUHAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsiipervisory workers; monthly data seasonally a<|justed, except as noted| Average vveeldy hours Total Total irivate nonagricultural ' Total private nonagricultural ' Manufacturing Total private nonagrieultura! ' Period Average p-oss weekly earnings Average gross hourly earnings Overtime Current dollars 1982 dollars 2 Manufacturing Percent eh uige from a year ear ier, total privatt agricul ural -' Current dollars Current dollars 1982 dollars* Manufacturing Construction lictail trade Current dollars 1982 dollars 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995P 34.8 34.8 34.7 34.6 34.5 34.3 34.4 34.5 34.7 34,5 40.7 41.0 41.1 41.0 40.8 40.7 41.0 41.4 42.0 41.5 3.4 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.7 4.4 $8.76 8.98 9.28 9.66 10.01 10.32 10.57 10.83 11.13 11.46 $7.81 7.73 7.69 7.64 7.52 7.45 7.41 7.39 7.41 7.42 $9.73 9.91 10.19 10.48 10.83 11.18 11.46 11.74 12.06 12.35 $304.85 312.50 322.02 334.24 345.35 353.98 363.61 373.64 386.21 395.37 $271.94 269.16 266.79 264.22 259.47 255.40 254.99 254.87 256.96 255.90 $396.01 406.31 418.81 429.68 441.86 455.03 469.86 486.04 506.52 512.53 $466.75 480.44 495.73 513.17 526.01 533.40 537.70 553.63 572.61 583.55 $176.08 178.70 183.62 188.72 194.40 198.48 205.06 209.95 216.46 221.76 1.9' 2.5 3.0 3.8 3.3 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.4 2.4 0.3 -1.0 -.9 -1.0 -1.8 -1.6 -.2 -.0 .8 -.4 1995- Jan Feb Mar 34.8 34.6 34.6 34.6 34.2 34.4 34.6 34.4 34.5 34.6 34.4 34.3 33.7 42.2 42.1 42.0 41.5 41.4 41.5 41.3 41.5 41.7 41.5 41.5 41.2 39.8 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.1 11.29 11.32 11.34 11.40 11.37 11.43 11.50 11.48 11.54 11.59 11.58 11.62 11.68 7.39 7.39 7.38 7.40 7.36 7.39 7.43 7.41 7.44 7.45 7.44 7.45 12.21 12.24 12.25 12.28 12.28 12.32 12.40 12.41 12.43 12.45 12.47 12.49 12.60 392.89 391.67 392.36 394.44 388.85 393.19 397.90 394.91 398.13 401.01 398.35 398.57 393.62 257.30 255.83 255.44 255.96 251,85 254.33 257.21 254.95 256.53 257.72 256.01 255.49 515.26 515.30 514.50 509.62 508.39 511.28 512.12 515.02 518.33 516.68 517.51 514.59 501.48 579.28 575.86 578.12 566.61 563.62 582.86 590.02 583.98 588.95 593.49 588.60 577.95 584.08 220.11 218.88 219.17 222.03 219.56 220.90 223.11 222.14 223.49 224.26 224.06 223.65 220.87 2.7 3.3 2.6 2.5 1.1 2.4 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.3 2.2 .4 .3 -.4 -.7 -2.1 -.6 .2 -.0 .0 -.6 -.1 -.3 July Sept Ocf Dec/7 1996- 3a.ni> 9 :| 'Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. ^Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index I ir urban wage earners and clerical workers (C1M-W) (on a 1982=100 hase). Based on seasonally unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Lal>or Statistics. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY Index (June 1989 = 100) Percent change from .'i months earlier Period Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits ' Total compensation Wages arid salaries 12 months earlier Benefits ' Total compensation Wages arid salaries Benefits ' Not seasonally adjusted 1986198719881989199019911992199319941995- Dec Dec .... Dec Dec ... Dee Dec .. Dec Dee Dec Dec .. . 90.1 93.1 97.6 102.3 107.0 111.7 115.6 119.8 123.5 126.9 91.1 94.1 98.0 102.0 106.1 110.0 112.9 116.4 119.7 123.1 116.9 117.9 118.9 119.9 120.8 121.8 122.8 123.6 124.3 125.2 125.9 127.0 113.9 114.6 115.6 116.4 117.3 118.3 119.1 119.8 120.6 121.5 122.3 123.1 87.5 90.5 96.7 102.6 109.4 116.2 122.2 128.3 133.0 136.6 3.2 3.3 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.4 3.5 3.6 3.1 2.8 Seasonally adjusted 1993- Mar Sept Dec ... 1994- Mar Sept . Dec 1995- Mar Sept . Dec . 1 Employer costs for employee Imnefits. NoTK.—-The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries. 124.8 126.5 127.7 129.1 130.2 131.5 132.8 133.8 134.0 134.7 135.4 137.2 1.0 .9 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .7 .6 .7 .6 .9 3.2 3.3 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.7 2.6 3.1 2.8 2.8 3.4 3.4 6.9 6.1 6.6 6.2 5.2 5.0 3.7 27 Not seasonally adjusted 0.8 .6 .9 .7 .8 .9 .7 .6 .7 .7 .7 .7 1.5 1.4 .9 1.1 .9 1.0 1.0 .8 .1 .5 .5 1.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.7 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 5.6 5.8 5.4 5.0 4.4 3.9 4.0 3.7 2.9 2.6 2.1 2.7 Data exclude farm and household workers. Source: Department of" LalxH*, Bureau of Labor Statistics 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output per hour of all persons Period Business sector Nonfarni business sector Business sector Compensation per hour 3 Hours of all persons3 Output ' Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business seclor Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real compensation per hour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Uni labor costs Business sector Implicit price deflator b Nonfarni business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Indexes, 1992=100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 1985' 1986' . . . 1987r 1988'r 1989 1990r 1991r 1992' 1993' 1994' 91.9 94.2 94.1 94.6 95.4 96.2 96.7 100.0 100.2 101.0 92.4 94.9 94.7 95.3 95.8 96.3 96.9 100.0 100.2 100.7 85.9 88.6 91.1 94.6 97.8 98.7 96.9 100.0 102.6 106.9 85.8 88.7 91.4 95.1 98.1 98.8 97.1 100.0 102.9 106.9 93.4 94.0 96.8 100.0 102.5 102.6 100.3 100.0 102.4 105.9 92.8 93.5 96.5 99.8 102.4 102.7 100.2 100.0 102.7 106.2 73.1 76.9 79.9 83.5 85.8 90.8 95.1 100.0 102.6 104.8 73.5 77.3 80.2 83.6 85.8 90.6 95.1 100.0 102.3 104.5 95.3 98.4 98.6 99.0 97.1 97.4 97.9 100.0 99.6 99.2 95.8 98.9 99.0 99.2 97.1 97.3 97.9 100.0 99.3 98.9 79.5 81.6 84.9 88.2 89.9 94.3 98.3 100.0 102.4 103.8 79.5 81.4 84.7 87.8 89.6 94.1 98.1 100.0 102.1 103.8 79.9 81.6 83.8 86.8 90.5 94.0 97.7 100.0 102.5 104.8 79.7 81.4 83.5 86.4 90.0 93.8 97.6 100.0 102.5 104.9 1992: I' II' Ill' IV' 99.3 99.9 99.7 101.1 100.2 99.8 100.1 100.8 100.3 100.7 101.4 101.5 99.3 100.0 99.6 101.1 98.8 99.6 99.8 101.7 98.8 99.6 99.8 101.8 99.5 99.7 100.1 100.6 99.6 99.6 100.1 100.7 98.6 99.5 100.7 101.2 99.7 99.8 100.3 99.9 99.2 99.8 100.1 100.9 101.6 102.2 103.2 104.6 101.3 102.2 102.6 103.5 101.5 102.5 103.0 103.9 101.4 102.6 102.9 102.5 104.8 106.5 107.6 108.7 104.5 105.8 106.2 107.1 104.8 106.1 106.5 107.4 103.7 104.3 104.6 105.4 103.8 103.9 103.5 104.1 103.9 104.5 105.3 105.7 101.0 101.8 102.1 108.8 108.9 110.0 107.6 106.9 107.7 107.9 107.2 108.0 99.6 99.3 98.8 99.0 99.0 99.6 100.0 99.1 99.0 98.5 98.7 101.1 101.9 102.2 104.8 106.6 107.7 108.8 109.0 109.1 110.3 98.9 99.3 99.8 105.4 106.0 106.8 101.7 102.3 102.7 103.3 103.9 104.4 105.1 105.6 106.3 106.9 107.6 101.8 102.4 102.7 103.3 100.0 100.4 101.1 101.3 101.6 102.5 103.0 103.3 104.2 104.5 104.9 105.7 106.6 108.0 • 109.1 99.3 99.6 101.0 100.1 101.3 102.4 102.4 102.3 99.3 99.7 100.1 100.9 101.4 102.0 102.8 104.3 99.6 99.9 100.2 99.9 99.4 99.3 99.4 98.9 99.3 99.6 101.0 100.1 100.1 99.7 100.2 100.6 98.5 99.6 100.7 101.2 101.4 102.1 102.6 102.9 2.8 22 2'7 3.5 4.2 4.0 3.9 2.4 2.5 2.2 3.4 2.2 2.6 3.4 4.2 4.2 4.1 2.4 2.5 2.3 3.0 2.1 1.4 3.2 1993: I' . II' Ill' IV 1994: I' 11' III' IV' 1995: I' II' Ill' 106.4 107.8 108.8 99.6 99.7 99.8 99.2 103.7 103.8 103.4 104.1 105.3 105.9 106.5 106.5 107.0 107.6 Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 1985' 1986' 1987' 1988' 1989r ... 1990' 1991' ... 1992' 1993' .... 1994' 1.9 2.6 -.1 .5 .8 .8 .5 3.4 2 .7 1992: I' 8.1 2.5 -.7 5.6 .5 .5 .7 3.2 .2 .5 7.3 2.8 -1.2 6.1 -3.7 -1.3 1.3 2.7 -1.9 1.4 II' III' IV' 1993: I' II' ... Ill' IV 1994- I' II' Ill' IV 1995: I' II' HI' 1 1.0 2.7 _ 2 2.7 3.4 4.9 5.2 3.9 4.5 2.8 5.8 4.8 5.2 2.6 2.2 4.6 5.2 3.7 4.3 2.7 5.5 4.9 5.2 2.3 2.2 1.3 3.3 .2 ^4 -1.9 .4 .5 2.1 -.4 -.4 1.0 3.3 .1 .1 -2.1 .1 .7 2.1 -.7 -.4 3.0 2.6 4.0 4.0 1.9 4.9 4.2 1.7 2.4 1.4 -1.5 .3 2.0 2.2 7.8 3.7 4.8 2.1 7.7 4.2 4.4 2.1 4.9 .5 1.7 -1.3 4.8 1.1 1.3 -1.3 -.3 1.2 5.6 -3.3 3.6 2.5 4.0 3.7 2.1 5.0 4.3 1.9 2.1 1.6 .4 1.4 5.7 -3.7 2.6 3.6 1.7 3.5 3.1 4.2 2.0 3.6 1.6 3.4 2.2 1.0 2.7 2.0 1.1 -1.4 .3 .5 -2.1 -2.0 -.3 .3 -2.1 5.4 4.8 .9 -1.6 5.1 4.5 -.1 -.5 2.8 1.9 1.5 3.0 3.4 2.5 1.4 2.4 .9 6.8 4.2 4.2 3.7 5.3 1.3 3.3 3.5 4.8 1.6 3.3 3.4 1.5 1.5 2.9 1.3 -1.0 -2.0 .7 1.1 -.4 -2.3 1.0 5.4 .1 -1.3 2.3 5.9 .2 -1A 2.4 2.4 1.8 2.6 2.0 .8 .5 4.4 2.2 -2.5 2.8 1.9 -2.4 2.9 3.4 5.6 3.9 3.3 2.1 1.2 3.3 3.7 5.4 3.9 .3 2.1 1.9 .6 2.0 1.8 5.0 2.5 2.7 4.9 2.3 2.4 2.8 2.1 2.6 4.1 3.2 2.9 3.8 3.4 .9 -1.8 3.2 2.6 4.2 3.6 3.4 3.0 4.1 3.2 .7 -1.8 3.0 2.9 4.0 6.2 3.2 .8 7.9 -3.9 -1.7 2.1 1.6 5.6 3.1 .7 8.4 2.1 .6 3.0 3.3 2.5 .1 -2.3 -.3 2.4 3.4 -1.7 .7 1.6 2.2 -1.1 2.2 3.0 6.3 -.9 2.4 4.1 5.3 2.8 .7 -2.5 1.9 2.6 .9 1.8 6.7 4.1 4.0 -1.6 3.0 1.2 -1.1 3.0 1.4 .6 .3 4.1 !e 2.5 .7 3.2 3.5 2.6 2 -2^4 9 Output refers to real gross domestic product originating in the sector. Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed. 4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U). 2 16 i!i 5 3.8 2.1 1.2 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.9 1.8 2.9 1.9 2.3 Current dollar gross domestic output divided by the output index. NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from pi-eceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Series revised to reflect the comprehensive revisions of the national income and product accounts released in January 1996 and are computed using chain-type output indexes. The revisions also reflect incorporation of the 1994 Hours at Work 8uwtf. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production and capacity utilization fell in January. INDEK, 1987- 100* (MHO SCALE) 150 TCWINDUSTHAl PRODUCTION 140 ^ n 130 120 110 100 150 ^ 130 120 *~ 100 ^t^"~~^~' w-^ 140 ^— " 150 140 ^ .'--—" . -. CONSUME* MANUMCTURNG DURANE 130 x 90 1 ~"^"* 80 ^' .-'-5~* iiiiiir—"1< 110 ^ — 120 100 INDB(.1987- 100- (RATIO SCAIE) 170 FNAl PRODUCTS 160 BUSINESS **•_ / NONDURAB1E ^•» \ ^ DGFB4SE ANDSMCE EQUfflMENT 70 iniiliiiii *™n= "\ 40 150 140 UTtmESANDMMNG umresAj NDMMNG 50 130 120 110 100 -~~^r^— \m» Illl 1 ll 1 1 II 1993 1994 1995 imtlltm 86 ^>^ 84 ^/~^ 82 ^^^> 80 78 •miiliiMi iniiliiiii Itlniiu n il ll lllllll mitlimi 1994 1993 1995 19M 1992 m S_-x^— f 90 imilnm 1992 ./'.-I c ,.'%,'•—' 1 1 1 1 1 If t f 1 1 Ml 1 11 1 t 11 itiiitMiii t l l t l l M Ml FERCENTCAmOTY UDUZAHON RAre (TOW INDUSTRY) 1996 •KMOWITAOH•TO [Monthly data seasonally a<(justed) Period Index, 1987=100 Capacity utilization rate, percent l Industry production indexes, 1987=100 Total industrial production Manufacturing Percent change from year earlier Mining Total Durable Utilities Nondurable Total industry Manufacturing 95.3 100.0 104.4 106.0 106.0 104.2 107.7 111.5 118.1 121.9 0.9 4.9 4.4 1.5 .0 '-1.8 3.4 3.5 5.9 3.2 94.3 100.0 104.7 106.4 106.1 103.8 108.2 112.3 119.7 123.9 93.9 100.0 106.6 108.6 107.4 104.1 109.3 115.6 125.8 132.5 94.9 100.0 102.3 103.7 104.4 103.4 106.7 108.6 113.0 114.3 101.0 100.0 101.3 100.0 102.0 100.2 98.9 98.0 100.3 99.9 96.3 100.0 105.0 108.7 109.9 112.3 111.9 116.3 117.9 121.7 79.2 81.5 83.7 83.7 82.1 79.2 80.3 81.4 83.9 83.7 79.1 81.6 83.6 83.2 81.3 78.0 79.5 80.6 83.3 82.9 Septr Ocfr \ov DeeP 121.8 121.7 121.9 121.4 121.3 121.4 121.5 122.7 122.8 122.2 122.4 122.6 6.3 5.4 4.7 3.9 3.2 2.8 2.6 3.2 3.1 1.9 1.6 .9 124.1 123.9 124.0 123.5 123.2 123.3 123.3 124.2 124.9 124.4 124.5 124.7 131.8 132.1 132.2 131.6 131.1 131.5 131.5 133.2 134.4 133.5 134.3 134.8 115.6 114.8 115.1 114.6 114.4 114.3 114.3 114.3 114.4 114.3 113.8 113.5 100.6 100.8 100.3 100.6 100.5 101.0 100.7 100.0 100.0 98.2 98.1 98.0 117.3 118.5 119.2 118.8 122.1 121.0 122.7 128.8 122.7 121.6 123.3 124.1 85.1 84.7 84.6 84.0 83.7 83.5 83.3 83.8 83.6 82.9 82.8 82.7 84.6 84.2 84.0 83.3 82.8 82.6 82.3 82.6 82.8 82.1 82.0 81.8 1996- Jan'' 121.9 .1 124.0 134.2 112.6 97.7 123.0 81.9 81.0 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995P 1995: Jan Feb Mar Apr . . . . May July Aug 1 Output as percent of capacity. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1987 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Products Materials Final products Intermediate pmducts Consumer goods Equipment Period Total Total 1986 1987 1988 1989 ... 1990 1991 . . 1992 1993 ... 1994 1995P . . .. ... 1995: Jan Feb Mar May July Sept1" Octr Noy r Decf 1996: Janf 1 Durable goods Nondurable goods Total 1 Business Defense and space equipment Total Construction supplies Business supplies Total Energy 95.7 100.0 104.8 106.8 107.0 105.4 108.7 112.7 118.3 121.3 96.8 100.0 102.9 104.0 103.4 103.0 106.0 109.5 113.7 115.0 94.5 100.0 104.6 106.6 102.3 96.0 103.0 113.3 124.2 124.2 97.6 100.0 102.4 103.2 103.8 105.0 106.9 108.6 111.2 112.8 94.5 100.0 107.6 110.9 112.1 108.8 112.5 117.5 125.3 131.4 93.1 100.0 110.7 115.5 116.9 115.9 123.4 131.8 144.9 155.7 96.0 100.0 99.7 100.1 98.8 90.8 84.8 79.3 71.9 65.9 91.9 100.0 101.8 102.0 101.2 96.8 99.3 101.8 107.3 109.0 93.8 100.0 101.5 100.5 98.2 91.6 95.2 98.4 106.2 108.2 90.7 100.0 102.0 103.0 103.2 100.2 102.0 104.1 108.2 109.6 95.9 1000 105.0 106.7 106.8 105.5 109.7 113.8 122.0 127.4 99.5 100.0 102.2 103.1 104.2 104.4 103.7 103.5 105.3 106.5 121.3 121.1 121.5 120.9 120.6 121.1 121.2 122.4 122.6 121.3 121.7 121.9 115.5 114.9 115.3 114.4 114.1 114.8 114.6 115.9 116.0 114.9 115.5 115.3 127.1 127.3 126.0 124.9 121.6 122.3 121.4 124.0 125.8 123.4 124.9 126.4 112.7 111.9 112.7 111.8 112.4 113.1 113.0 113.9 113.7 112.9 113.3 112.6 130.4 131.0 131.4 131.3 130.8 131.2 131.6 132.9 133.1 131.5 131.3 132.4 153.2 154.3 155.1 155.0 154.3 155.1 155.7 157.5 158.2 156.5 156.8 158.5 68.9 68.2 67.8 67.1 66.8 66.8 66.5 66.1 65.2 64.4 62.8 62.1 109.5 109.5 109.2 108.2 108.2 108.2 108.5 109.4 109.5 109.2 109.4 110.0 109.7 109.5 109.2 108.0 106.6 107.2 107.3 107.0 108.4 108.3 109.2 110.6 109.5 109.6 109.3 108.5 109.4 109.1 109.5 111.0 110.3 109.9 109.7 109.8 127.1 127.1 127.2 127.0 127.2 126.8 126.8 128.1 128.1 128.1 128.3 128.2 106.2 106.4 106.4 106.6 107.2 107.2 107.5 108.5 105.8 105.5 105.4 105.7 121.2 113.6 121.4 111.8 133.4 160.0 61.6 109.1 109.1 109.2 127.6 105.0 Includes oil and gas well drilling and manufacftn-ed homes, not shown separately. [1987 = 100; monthly data seasonally ac\justed] Din-able manufactures Primary metals Period Total 1986 .... 1987 1988 1989 1990 .. 1991 1992 1993 1994 .... 1995^ . .. 1995- Jan Peb Mar Apr May Sept' Ocf Nov r Deep . ... 1996: Jan? .... .. . . . Industrial machinery and equipment FJectrieal machinery Total Motor vehicles and parts Lumaud products Apparel products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Foods 93.7 100.0 108.7 107.2 106.5 98.6 101.9 107.7 116.4 119.2 90.8 100.0 112.7 111.2 111.5 100.5 104.7 111.9 119.3 122.4 93.8 100.0 104.2 102.8 99.5 94.5 99.0 103.1 110.5 113.9 90.3 100.0 113.0 117.3 117.6 114.7 124.0 138.1 157.7 177.7 94.3 100.0 108.5 111.0 111.4 113.9 123.5 134.1 154.3 174.9 96.9 100.0 105.2 109.6 107.0 101.1 104.8 109.2 115.3 113.4 98.5 100.0 105.7 106.9 101.0 94.4 107.4 122.9 141.2 141.9 95.1 100.0 100.1 99.4 97.1 90.2 95.2 97.1 104.0 104.5 96.3 100.0 98.1 95.0 92.2 92.7 95.0 97.1 100.1 95.8 90.6 100.0 100.9 101.1 100.8 97.0 98.1 98.8 100.1 99.4 94.6 100.0 106.0 109.2 111.8 110.5 114.4 115.4 121.3 124.9 97.4 100.0 101.5 102.5 103.7 105.3 106.9 109.5 113.2 115.3 121.5 120.8 121.3 120.2 119.5 117.5 118.3 115.4 121.0 115.7 121.1 119.3 125.5 124.9 125.8 123.5 123.0 119.2 119.3 117.7 127.0 115.1 126.5 122.8 114.3 115.0 114.3 112.3 113.7 113.7 112.4 1 14.3 115.1 114.0 114.5 115.1 171.4 171.8 172.4 174.3 174.6 174.4 176.0 179.5 181.3 183.8 186.2 189.3 166.7 167.7 169.4 169.6 171.1 173.0 175.7 178.7 180.8 182.4 183.6 182.8 117.8 118.5 118.0 115.7 113.2 113.4 111.6 114.1 114.1 109.3 108.6 110.0 147.3 148.4 147.6 143.0 138.8 139.7 136.7 142.1 143.3 139.7 140.7 141.2 107.1 105.0 103.9 103.9 101.7 103.0 103.7 103.7 106.2 105.7 105.6 106.4 100.6 99.8 99.3 97.4 97.5 95.5 94.8 94.5 94.5 93.3 92.5 92.5 100.1 100.3 99.3 99.2 99.0 98.6 99.0 100.5 99.8 98.9 99.4 98.9 126.2 124.7 125.0 123.5 124.0 124.4 124.0 124.4 125.3 126.7 125.7 125.4 115.9 114.2 115.0 115.1 115.9 116.1 115.3 115.5 115.5 115.4 115.2 114.9 121.6 128.0 113.8 190.2 181.3 108.4 135.5 104.5 90.3 98.2 124.7 114.7 Source: Board of Governor of the Federal ReseiTe System 18 Iron and steel Fabricated metal products Nondurable manufactures Transportation equipment NEW CONSTRUCTION {Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Construction contracts3 Private Federal Period Residential Total newconst ruction expenditures Total New housing units Total ' Commercial and industrial 2 Other and State and local Total value index (1987=100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feel) Billions of dollars 407.7 419.4 432.3 443.7 442.2 403.4 435.0 464.5 506.9 527.2 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995/> 323.1 328.7 337.5 345.5 334.7 293.3 315.7 339.2 376.6 384.4 187.1 194.7 198.1 196.6 182.9 157.8 187.9 210.5 238.9 236.2 84.4 84.0 88.0 94.3 96.4 77.0 65.8 66.4 73.8 85.8 133.2 139.9 138.9 139.2 128.0 110.6 129.6 144.1 167.9 162.3 51.6 50.1 51.5 54.6 55.4 58.4 62.1 62.3 63.9 62.4 84.6 90.6 94.7 98.2 107.5 110.1 119.3 125.3 130.3 142.8 96 100 101 105 95 89 97 105 114 115 1.016 1,019 973 961 783 577 556 589 '744 842 Annual rates Annual rates 1994- Dec 521.8 386.1 243.6 169.7 80.9 61.7 135.7 '110 688 1995- Jan Feb 521.1 521.4 523.5 522.1 514.5 518.9 528.7 528.4 535.1 537.6 532.9 537.5 384.8 383.7 383.3 382.2 376.1 377.5 384.3 385.7 387.0 390.1 387.8 392.3 241.9 240.2 237.9 234.1 231.3 228.4 231.0 234.0 237.6 238.3 239.5 241.2 168.6 167.2 163.9 159.8 156.4 1 53.2 158.0 161.3 164.3 165.4 165.1 165.3 81.3 82.7 84.7 85.0 81.9 85.9 88.0 87.2 85.6 88.8 88.5 91.8 61.5 60.7 60.7 63.1 62.9 63.2 65.3 64.5 63.8 63.0 59.9 59.3 136.2 137.8 140.2 139.9 138.4 141.4 144.4 142.7 148.1 147.5 145.0 145.1 '113 '114 116 108 '119 122 118 123 119 116 '114 107 786 883 778 632 727 800 713 826 828 731 851 784 Apr July' Sept' Oct' . Dec' 1 2 3 Includes residential improvements, not shown separately. Includes hotels and motels. F.W. Dodge series. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New private housing units Units started, by type of structure Period Total 1,805.4 1,620.5 1,488.1 1,376.1 1,192.7 1,013.9 1,199.7 1,287.6 1,457.0 1,350.5 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995P New private homes 1 unit 1,179.4 1,146.4 1,081.3 1,003.3 894.8 840.4 1,029.9 1,125.7 1,198.4 1,073.2 2-4 units 5 or more units 84.0 65.3 58.8 55.2 37.5 35.6 30.7 29.4 35.0 33.8 542.0 408.7 348.0 317.6 260.4 137.9 139.0 132.6 223.5 243.5 Units authorized 3 Units completed Homes sold Homes for sale at end of period l ,769.4 ,534.8 ,455.6 ,338.4 ,110.8 948.8 ,094.9 ,199.1 ,371.6 ,333.0 ,756.4 ,668.8 ,529.8 ,422.8 ,308.0 ,090.8 ,157.5 ,192.7 ,346.9 750 671 676 650 534 509 610 666 670 357 366 368 365 321 284 265 293 338 1,358 1,420 1,293 1,282 1,235 1.243 1,243 1,275 1,355 1,368 1,405 1,384 1,448 1,478 1,373 1,371 1,388 1,436 1,302 1,443 1,334 1,342 1,256 1,345 1,246 1,254 1,312 1,337 642 627 643 575 612 607 667 723 781 '703 682 663 649 335 338 342 347 347 348 347 347 344 '349 352 362 375 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 2 7.3 7.7 7.7 27.4 72 7.4 7.4 2 7.3 7.4 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1994- Nov Dec . 1995- Jan Feb July Sept' Oct' Nov Dee*" 1996: Jan? 1 '1,504 '1,505 '1,177 '1,207 '1,370 '1,322 '1,241 '1,278 '1,300 '1,301 '1,450 '1,401 1,401 1,351 '1,458 1,385 '1,062 '1,051 '992 '1,017 '1,005 '1,036 '1,125 '1,135 1,130 1,109 '1,129 1,116 1,446 1,132 '60 '34 '38 '44 '35 '25 '36 '35 '39 '28 39 31 '32 30 31 Seasonally adjusted. Revised series beginning 1989 and 1994; not comparable with earlier data, except 1993 data have been revised to be comparable with new series beginning in 1994. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. 3 The 1994 total based on 17,000 permit-issuing places is 1,333.7 thousand units. 3 '267 --264 '270 '227 '214 '236 '259 '230 '286 '238 232 211 '297 239 283 7.4 7.4 7.7 7.7 7.7 NOTE.—Beginning 1994, units authorized are for 19,000 places. For other data shown, units authorized are for 17,000 places. Seasonally adjusted housing starts revised beginning 1993. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade In November, manufacturing and trade sales rose 0.7 percent and inventories rose $0.7 billion. According to advance data, retail sales rose 0.3 percent in December following a rise of 0.7 percent in November. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) ,ouu r-— 900 _, 1 800 ~ 350 1 r\~n MA MUFACTURIN(3 AND TRADE INVENTC3RIES 700 300 f—'' 250 600 RETAIL INVENTORIES -„ 500 200 NUFACTURIN AND TRADE SAL! S 400 RETAIL SALES 150 11111111 300 RATIO* 1.80 INVENTORY-SALES RATIO 1.70 RETAIL 1.60 200 1.50 W<L/1L/N-^ ,/V / - x— •-''• ^'' 1.40 1 1 1 1 11 M 1 11 1 11 1111 1 1n M 1 1 1 11 1 1 11 1 1 11111 1M i 1991 1992 1993 1994 1 M 1 111M 11 1.30 11111111111 1991 1995 s^S^* MANUFACTl IBIKK ^^ ANDTRADE 1 M 1 11 11 111 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 111 1 1 11 1 M 1 1 M 1 1 M 1995 1992 1993 1994 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTS) SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Manufacturing and trade1 Period Sales" Inventories3 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Inventories3 Sales2 Sales2 Inventories3 Inventory-sales ratio 4 Retail Wholesale Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Manufacturing and trade ' Retail Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995^ 1994: Novr Decr 1995- Jau Feb Mar May July Sept Ocf NovP Dee? 422,583 430,419 457,735 496,079 523,065 542,682 538,485 561,293 593,076 639,770 682 124 661,571 670,395 673,918 675,480 674,797 672,912 678,444 682,958 675,776 687,610 689,804 687,650 692,456 698,855 664,089 662,753 709,814 765,270 811,154 834,391 829,685 838,895 860,979 916,550 913,880 917,529 928,672 936,091 942,743 952,235 956,516 960,157 964,894 968,658 973,482 980,267 980,967 113,459 114,960 122,968 134,521 143,760 149,506 148,306 154,150 161,681 172,521 186 598 178,711 182,257 182,829 185,056 183,207 184,597 186,244 187,472 186,232 187,203 188,303 188,517 190,709 193,429 147,409 153,574 163,903 178,801 187,009 195,550 200,062 207,663 215,878 234,722 233,824 235,701 238,272 240,365 243,462 246,867 247,702 249,813 253,060 253,017 254,063 256,134 255,449 253,669 114,586 120,803 128,442 138,017 146,581 153,718 154,661 162,632 172,875 186,414 195,522 191,669 192,085 193,299 191,868 193,153 193,022 195,107 196,774 196,070 197,386 197,221 196,735 -•198,019 198,649 41,510 45,057 47,989 52,430 54,763 55,736 54,165 58,634 64,795 73,369 78,392 76,738 76,808 76,775 76,138 76,978 76,549 77,533 78,835 78,446 79,940 79,103 79,458 ••80,542 80,821 1 ;1 2 4 See page 21 For manufacturing. Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data an; seasonally a<ljusUHl totals for month. 20 73,075 75,746 80,453 85,587 91,818 97,981 100,497 103,999 108,080 113,045 117,130 114,931 115,277 116,524 115,730 116,175 116,473 117,574 117,939 117,624 117,446 118,118 117,277 '117,477 117,828 181,881 186,510 207,836 219,047 237,234 239,773 243,275 251,994 267,676 290,018 88,315 89,983 105,481 112,453 121,347 121,105 119,039 122,948 133,709 149,071 93,566 96,527 102,355 106,594 115,887 118,668 124,236 129,046 133,967 140,947 1.56 1.55 1.50 1.49 1.52 1.52 1.54 1.49 1.44 1.39 1.52 1.56 1.55 1.54 1.58 1.55 1.54 1.52 1.51 1.50 290,068 290,018 294,296 296,000 297,200 299,690 300,525 300,333 299,411 302,495 303,242 306,698 307,932 149,400 149,071 152,754 153,826 155,530 157,958 157,842 157,109 156,320 158,276 159,205 161,745 162,549 140,668 140,947 141,542 142,174 141,670 141,732 142,683 143,224 143,091 144,219 144,037 144,953 145,383 1.38 1.37 1.38 1.39 1.40 1.42 1.41 1.41 1.43 1.41 1.41 1.43 1.42 1.51 1.51 1.52 1.54 1.54 1.55 1.54 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.54 1.56 1.56 Seasonally adjusted, end of |K>riod. Annual data an; averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. Souree: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In December, manufacturers' shipments and new and unfilled orders rose; inventories were about unchanged. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF_ DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 320 - SHIPMENTS - 480 ~~ INVENTO <lbti 440 400 . 360 TOTAL 280 240 „..—-—~ > \ 320 200 280 ...*•-'-*" DURABLE GOODS -\ 160 240 "\ 200 120 1 RABLEGOOD 160 - .*.---~" NONDURABLE GOODS " \ 120 80 ^DURABLE GC BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 320 _ NEW ORDERS - ,„,,! 80 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 Hill 1 1 1 1 1 Mill Mill .TOTAL. 280 240 RATIO* 2.20 200 2.00 DURABLE GOODS 160 1.80 A1 - 120 NONDURABLE GOODS 80 1991 1992 1991 1995 1994 1993 1992 1993 1994 * SEASONAUY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE 1995 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturers' shipments ' Manufacturers' inventories* Manufacturers' new orders ' Durable goods Period Total Durable goods Nondurable Kinds Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, nondefense Nondurable goods Manufacturers' unfilled ordersa Manufacturers' inventory— shipments ratio3 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 . .. 1995P 1994- Dec 1995- Jan Feb Mar May July Sept Ocf Nov Dec? 194,538 194,657 206,326 223,541 232,724 239,459 235,518 244,511 258,520 280,835 300,005 296,053 297,790 298,556 298,437 295,293 297,093 298,712 293,474 303,021 304,280 302,398 303,728 306,777 101,279 103,238 108,128 117,993 121,703 122,387 119,151 125,553 135,981 151,060 162,130 159,299 161,079 161,206 161,571 157,970 159,612 160,828 155,919 164,196 165,939 164,062 164,926 166,655 93,259 91,419 98,198 105,549 111,022 117,072 116,367 118,958 122,539 129,775 137,874 136,754 136,711 137,350 136,866 137,323 137,481 137,884 137,555 138,825 138,341 138.336 138,802 140,122 334,799 322,669 338,075 367,422 386,911 399,068 386,348 379,238 377,425 391,810 417,840 391,810 396,104 399,726 402,081 405,678 408,289 410,011 412,423 413,146 416,177 417,435 417,586 417,840 1 Annual data are avcraf^s of monthly not seasonally adjusted fipires; monthly data aru seasonally adjusted totals for month. Shipments are the same as salt's. a Seasonally adjusted, end of [mriod. 116,587 110,663 117,299 126,020 130,846 139,080 137,231 141,521 141,122 144,166 154,509 144,166 145,853 147,602 148,844 150,344 151,502 152,569 152,891 153,055 154,471 154,130 154,069 154,509 218,212 212,006 220,776 241,402 256,065 259,988 249,117 237,717 236,303 247,644 263,331 247,644 250,251 252,124 253,237 255,334 256,787 257,442 259,532 260,091 261,706 263,305 263,517 263,331 195,706 195,204 209,389 227,026 235,932 240,646 234,354 241,545 255,701 281,953 300,582 299,514 301,724 300,804 299,625 293,069 297,046 296,754 293,863 301,903 306,123 304,370 304,148 308,081 102,356 103,647 110,809 121,445 124,933 123,556 117,878 122,614 133,273 151,878 162,911 162,310 164,507 163,338 163,042 155,553 159,502 159,031 156,130 164,082 168,951 166,490 165,167 168,683 24,545 23,983 26,095 30,729 32,725 32,254 29,468 29,653 31,889 37,530 43,334 37,759 41,785 42,055 42,628 40,072 43,115 42,964 40,233 41,676 46,941 43,755 46,067 47,951 93,351 91,557 98,579 105,581 110,999 117,090 116,476 118,932 122,428 130,074 137,672 137,204 137,217 137,466 136,583 137,516 137,544 137,723 137,733 137,821 137,172 137,880 138,981 139,398 387,095 393,412 430,288 471,951 510,459 524,846 511,122 475,304 441,947 456,838 464,789 456,838 460,772 463,020 464,208 461,984 461,937 459,979 460,368 459,250 461,093 463,065 463,485 464,789 1.73 1.68 1.59 1.58 1.64 1.65 1.67 1.57 1.47 1.37 1.37 1.32 1.33 1.34 1.35 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.41 1.36 1.37 1.38 1.37 1.36 :f Annual data am averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce, Hurejiu of the Census, 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES in December, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.5 percent. Prices of finished consumer foods rose 0.1 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods rose 0.9 percent. Capital equipment prices rose 0.1 percent. INDEX, 1982= 100 (RATIO SC:ALE) INDE,(, 1982 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) 150 FINISHED GOODS PRICES 150 SEASONAHY AOJUSTED 140 140 '1 ,-- CAPITAL EQUIPMENT .^"'^' 130 130 CONSUMER FOODS \ __ '"V- ^* * ff ,- •^X«rCT=^*"" ^. "*-~>\. / '^^ •• / ,.•*'"'* *"*"•**, .„...— ^ '^~ 120 120 > /X ^' r~r ^ , __, • r _ "\ CONSUMER GOODS EXCLUDING FOODS J —— ***** * 110 // TOTAL 1 110 - << 100 100 1 U 1 IIM i i i i i 1 i i i i i II 1 1 1 I I I 1987 1988 i i 1 1 1 ii i l l i i ii 1 1 1 1 1 i i i ii 1990 1989 1991 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II i i i I i It i i i i i 1 i i i i i 1993 1992 1995 1994 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF iABC* [1982 = 100; montlily data seasonally adjusted) Finished goods Intermediate materials Finished goods excluding consumer foods Total finished goods Period Consumer foods Consumer goods Total Total 103.2 105.4 108.0 113.6 119.2 121.7 123.2 124,7 125.5 127.9 126.5 127.1 127.3 127.5 127.8 128.0 127.7 127.8 127.8 128.1 128.0 128.6 129.3 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995/1 1994: Dec 1995: Jan Peb Mar Apr May June July Aug' Sept Get Nov Dee inatwials for fowl i 22 107.3 109.5 112.6 118.7 124.4 124.1 123.3 125.7 126.8 129.0 129.0 128.3 128.7 128.6 128.4 127.5 127.1 128.4 128.6 129.8 129.8 131.4 131.5 101.9 104.0 106.5 111.8 117.4 120.9 123.1 124.4 125.1 127.5 125.7 126.6 126.9 127.1 127.5 128.0 127.8 127.5 127.5 127.5 127.4 127.6 128.6 Durable 98.5 108.9 100.7 103.1 108.9 115.3 118.7 120.8 121.7 121.6 123.9 122.2 123.2 123.4 123.6 124.2 124.7 124.5 123.9 123.8 123.8 123.6 123.8 124.9 111.5 113.8 117.6 120.4 123.9 125.7 128.0 130.9 132.6 131.6 132.0 132.2 132.0 132.3 132.3 132.3 132.5 132.6 132.9 132.9 133.7 134.0 Nondurable 93.3 94.9 97.3 103.8 111.5 115.0 117.3 117.6 116.2 118.8 116.7 118.0 118.3 118.6 119.3 120.0 119.7 118.7 118.6 118.5 118.2 118.1 119.6 Capital equipment 109.7 111.7 114.3 118.8 122.9 126.7 129.1 131.4 134.1 136.7 134.9 135.5 135.7 135.9 136.2 136.5 136.5 136.8 137.0 137.2 137.1 137.7 137.9 Total finished consumer goods 101.4 103.6 106.2 112.1 118.2 120.5 121.7 123.0 123.3 125.6 124.3 124.8 125.1 125.3 125.6 125.7 125.4 125.4 125.4 125.7 125.6 126.2 127.0 Total 99.1 101.5 107.1 112.0 114.5 114.4 114.7 116.2 118.5 124.9 121.4 123.0 123.9 124.4 125.1 125.4 125.4 125.5 125.5 125.4 125.2 125.2 125.4 Foods and feeds ' 96.2 99.2 109.5 113.8 113.3 111.1 110.7 112.7 114.8 114.8 111.9 112.3 112.2 112.6 111.5 110.4 111.5 113.3 114.4 115.5 119.0 121.8 123.3 Other 99.3 101.7 106.9 111.9 114.5 114.6 114.9 116.4 118.7 125.5 121.9 123.5 124.5 125.0 125.8 126.2 126.2 126.1 126.1 126.0 125.5 125.4 125.5 Source: Department of Laixir, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Cnide materials Total 87.7 93.7 96.0 103.1 108.9 101.2 100.4 102.4 101.8 102.6 100.6 100.9 102.5 101.2 102.9 101.8 103.1 102.6 101.3 102.9 103.2 104.9 104.7 Foodstuffs and feedstuffs Other 93.2 96.2 81.6 87.9 106.1 111.2 113.1 105.5 105.1 108.4 106.5 105.8 102.3 102.3 103.6 101.1 100.0 97.2 100,9 105.0 106.1 110.2 112.5 116.6 115.5 85.5 93.4 101.5 94.6 93.5 94.7 94.8 96.6 95.6 96.0 97.8 97.4 100.8 100.8 100.5 97.1 94.3 94.3 93.3 93.3 93.8 CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In December, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.2 percent seasonally adjusted (it fell 0.1 percent not seasonally adjusted). The index was 2.5 percent above its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1982-84 . 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1982-84 - 100 (RATIO SCALE) 160 160 SEASONAUY ADJUSTED 150 150 140 140 130 130 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 1987 1989 1988 1990 1992 1991 1995 1994 1993 COUNOt Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1982-84=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Transportation Housing All items ' Shelter Not seasonally adjusted (NSA) Period Rel imp :i 1000 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 . 1994 1995 1994- Dec 1995: Jan Feb Mar 109.6 113.6 118.3 124.0 130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152 4 149.7 150.3 150.9 151.4 151.9 152.2 152.5 152.5 152.9 153.2 153.7 153.6 153.5 May July Aug Sept Oct Nov ... . Dec 1 .. . Seasonally adjusted 150.1 150.6 151.0 151.3 151.9 152.3 152.5 152.8 153.0 153.2 153.7 153.7 154.0 Total Renters' costs (Dec. 1982 = 100) 28.0 115.8 121.3 127.1 132.8 140.0 146.3 151.2 155.7 160.5 165.7 162.3 162.8 163.3 163.8 164.4 165.0 165.3 165.8 165.9 166.6 167.2 167.5 167.9 8.0 121.9 128.1 133.6 138.9 146.7 155.6 160.9 165.0 169.4 174.3 170.1 170.5 171.0 172.0 172.7 173.4 173.5 174.1 173.9 174.7 175.3 175.2 175.3 Food Total' 15.8 109.0 113.5 118.2 125.1 132.4 136.3 137.9 140.9 144.3 148.4 147.1 146.7 147.1 147.1 148.2 148.3 148.4 148.7 149.0 149.7 150.2 150.0 150.2 41.2 110.9 114.2 118.5 123.0 128.5 133.6 137.5 141.2 144.8 148.5 145.9 146.5 146.9 147.2 147.6 147.8 148.1 148.5 148.9 149.1 149.7 149.8 150.2 Includes items not shown se|>arately. Household fttcls—gas (piped), d<*tricity, fuel oil, eta.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc. excluded beginning 1983. :1 Relative importance, December 1994. 2 Home- Main- Fuel ownand teers' nance other utiliand costs re(Dec. ties 1982= pairs 100) (NSA) 19.9 119.4 124.8 131.1 137.3 144.6 150.2 155.3 160.2 165.5 171.0 167.8 168.4 168.9 169.2 169.8 170.4 170.8 171.3 171.6 172.2 172.8 173.4 174.0 0.2 107.9 111.8 114.7 118.0 122.2 126.3 128.6 130.6 130.8 135.0 132.7 133.1 133.8 134.2 134.2 134.6 135.0 135.1 135.4 135.4 136.3 136.2 136.6 7.1 104.1 103.0 104.4 107.8 111.6 115.3 117.8 121.3 122.8 123.7 122.7 123.3 123.3 123.1 123.4 122.9 123.4 123.5 124.2 123.4 124.1 124.3 124.5 Apparel and up- Total' keep 5.7 105.9 110.6 115.4 118.6 124.1 128.7 131.9 133.7 133.4 132.0 132.1 133.0 132.2 132.2 132.1 131.7 131.3 131.6 132.0 131.7 132.1 132.0 132.1 17.1 102.3 105.4 108.7 114.1 120.5 123.8 126.5 130.4 134.3 139.1 136.6 137.4 137.9 138.7 139.7 140.3 140.9 140.3 139.4 139.2 139.4 138.6 138.6 New cars MediMotor cal care fuel 4.1 3.1 77.1 110.6 80.2 114.6 80.9 116.9 88.5 119.2 121.0 101.2 99.4 125.3 99.0 128.4 131.5 98.0 98.5 136.0 139.0 100.0 137.6 101.3 137.7 101.7 138.1 101.3 138.1 100.9 138.9 101.5 139.0 103.5 139.2 103.8 139.0 101.9 139.3 98.8 139.6 97.3 139.6 97.0 94.9 139.8 97.3 139.7 7.3 122.0 130.1 138.6 149.3 162.8 177.0 190.1 201.4 211.0 220.5 216.2 216.9 217.6 218.2 218.8 219.5 220.2 221.0 221.8 222.5 223.2 224.0 224.7 Energy2 All items less food and energy 77.2 7.0 88.2 113.5 88.6 118.2 89.3 123.4 94.3 129.0 102.1 135.5 102.5 142.1 103.0 147.3 104.2 152.2 104.6 156.5 105.2 161.2 105.4 158.5 105.7 159.2 105.6 159.6 105.1 160.1 105.5 160.7 106.0 161.0 106.5 161.3 105.6 161.7 104.8 162.0 103.3 162.4 103.7 162.9 102.8 163.0 104.0 163.2 NOTE.—Data incorporate a rental equivalence measure for horneownership costs (Ix^inning 1988). Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Ijabor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS I Permit change from preceding period; inorittily data seasonally a<ljusted, except as noted by NSA] Change from preceding period Change from 8 months earlier, annual rattf Change from 6 mont is earlier, annual rate Consumer goods Consumer goods Consumer goods Period Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Total finished goods Capital equip- Excluding foods Foods Total finished goods Capita] equip- Excluding foods Foods Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995? -6.6 4.1 3.1 5.3 8.7 2.8 — 2 5.7 5.2 2.6 -1.5 1.6 2.4 1.1 1.9 -2.3 2.2 4.0 4.9 5.7 -.1 1.6 .2 1.7 2.2 2.1 1.3 3.6 3.8 3.4 2.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.2 n 1.6 -1.4 2.0 2.2 -1.4 2.1 2.5 5.2 4.9 2.1 1.2 1.2 .6 1.9 Cliange, month to month 1994- Dec 1995- Jan Feb July Aug r Sept Oct Dec 0 1.3 -.5 .3 -.1 -.2 -.7 -.3 1.0 .2 '.9 0 1.2 .1 0.3 .5 .2 .2 .2 .2 -.2 .1 0 •-.2 -.1 .5 .5 .8 .2 .2 .5 .4 o -.5 -I '0 o '.2 .9 9.2 7.2 4.5 -1.2 .3 -3.7 -4.6 0 3.5 8.8 4.4 '9.0 5.3 2.2 5.9 3.9 3.2 2.2 2.2 .6 0 -.6 1.3 .6 '2.5 3.8 0.3 .4 .1 .1 .2 .2 0 .2 .1 .1 -1 .4 .1 -0.3 3.6 3.6 3.0 2.1 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.5 2.1 .9 '2.1 2.1 0.7 6.1 4.0 4.7 3.3 4.3 2.9 -1.0 -2.9 -2.2 -1.0 '0 3.6 5.5 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.7 .3 -2.9 .2 2.1 2.6 1.8 2.7 4.0 3.0 1.9 1.1 .8 .9 .3 .9 2.5 a 1.9 2.2 6.2 7.0 0.9 1.6 1.5 1.3 2.8 3.0 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.8 2.1 1.3 2.5 1.1 2.6 4.7 4.1 3.8 1.1 .6 .3 -1.0 -1.4 .6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.2 Source: i)epartment of Ijalx>r, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS | Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally a^ustcd, except as noted by NSAj Housing Period All items ' Food Total1 Total ' Renters' costs Addendum: All items, percent change! (annual rate) Transportation Shelter Homeowners' costs Fuel and other utilities Apparol and 1 upkeep Total New cars Motor fuel Medical care All items less food and energy Enerey* From previous quarter" From From From 3 fi yearmonths months earlier earlier earlier NSA Change, December to December, NSA 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 .. 1.1 4.4 4.4 4.6 6.1 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.5 3.8 3.5 5.2 5.6 5.3 1.9 1.5 2.9 2.9 2.1 0.2 .3 .3 .2 .4 .3 .1 .2 .1 .1 .3 0 .2 0.8 -.3 .3 0 .7 .1 .1 2 '2 .5 .3 -.1 .1 1.7 3.7 4.0 3.9 4.5 3.4 2.6 2.7 2.2 3.0 4.6 4.8 4.5 4.9 5.2 3.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.5 5.0 3.9 3.9 4.5 6.7 4.2 2.8 2.6 2.3 3.0 4.6 5.3 4.7 5.1 4.7 3.7 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.7 0.1 .3 .3 .3 .4 .4 .2 .3 .1 .4 .4 .2 .2 -0.1 .2 .3 .6 .4 .4 .1 .3 -.1 .5 .3 -.1 .1 0.1 .4 .3 .2 .4 .4 .2 .3 .2 .3 .3 .3 .3 -5.6 1.6 2.9 3.2 4.0 2.9 2.3 2.5 .2 1.4 -5.9 6.1 3.0 4.0 10.4 -1.5 3.0 2.4 3.8 1.5 0.9 4.8 4.7 1.0 5.1 3.4 1.4 .9 -1.6 .1 5.9 1.8 2.1 2.3 1.4 3.3 2.3 2.8 3.2 1.6 -30.7 18.7 -2.1 6.8 36.5 -16.0 1.8 -5.4 5.9 -40 7.7 5.8 6.9 8.5 9.6 7.9 6.6 5.4 4.9 3.9 -19.7 8.2 .5 5.1 18.1 -7.4 2.0 -1.4 2.2 -1 3 3.8 4.2 4.7 4.4 5.2 4.4 3.3 3.2 2.6 3.0 0.1 .1 .3 0 .6 .1 .1 0.2 .4 -.4 -.4 .6 2.0 .3 -1.8 -3.0 -1.5 -.3 -2.2 2.5 0.5 .3 .3 .3 .3 .3 .3 .4 .4 .3 .3 .4 .3 -0.1 .3 -.1 -.5 .4 .5 .5 0.1 .4 .3 .3 .4 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .3 .1 .1 1.9 3.6 4.1 4.8 5.4 4.2 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.8 Cliange, month to month 1994- Dec 1995: Jan Feb ... Mar June July Sept Oct Dec 1 0 .4 .3 .2 .3 .1 .2 .3 .3 .1 .4 .1 .3 -02 -02 .5 .7 -.6 0 -1 -.3 -.3 .2 .3 0 o .2 -.4 .4 .1 .6 -.6 .6 .2 .2 Includes items not shown separately. a Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, eta.—ami motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc., excluded beginning 1983. 24 0.2 .6 .4 .6 .7 .4 .4 -.4 -.6 -.1 .1 -.6 0 p .3 -.1 .1 :i -I '2 .2 0 .1 -.1 Q -'.8 -1.4 .4 -.9 1.2 2.2 32 3.2 'i'.i 2.'i Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. Source: Department of Ijaltor, Bureau of Ijahor Statistics. 1.9 2.7 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.2 2.4 1.9 1.8 2.4 1.8 2.1 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.4 1.8 2.0 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.5 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS In January, prices received by farmers rose 1.9 percent from their December level. Prices paid by farmers in January were unchanged from their October level. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) INDEX, 1990-92=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1990-92=100 (RATIO SCALE) : 120 1 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 l l l l l I l l I l l I l l Il 111 I II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I MM I I I I MI I I I I I I I I I I I I i I M I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I II RATIO-!' 140 RATIO-!' 140 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 1988 1991 1990 1989 1992 1995 1993 _!/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 1995 1996 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1990-92=100; not seasonally adjusted] Prices paid by farmers Prices received by farmers Period 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1995: Jan Feb Mar Apr May July Aue Sept Oct Nov Dec 1996- Jan 1 All farm products Livestock and products Crops Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates Production items Ratio2 87 89 99 104 104 100 98 101 100 102 87 86 104 109 103 101 101 102 105 112 88 91 93 100 105 99 97 100 95 92 85 87 91 96 99 100 101 103 106 109 85 87 92 97 99 100 101 '102 106 108 86 87 90 95 99 100 101 103 106 108 103 102 108 108 105 99 '98 98 94 94 98 '97 '99 '99 '101 100 101 102 '105 104 '106 108 110 103 '101 '107 '113 '117 '113 '114 '114 '115 '114 '117 118 125 93 94 93 90 88 90 91 92 93 92 94 96 93 108 (") (3) 108 (:i) (3) 108 107 (:i) (3) 107 (:i3 ) () 107 (3) (:i) '109 (33) () 110 '107 (:i) (3) 107 (:i3 ) () 107 (:i) (3) '110 (:i) (:i) 111 91 '90 '92 '92 '94 93 94 94 '97 '94 '95 97 99 includes items not shown separately. Percentage ratio of index of prices received by fanners to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wap^ rates. See also footnote 3. :i Prices paid by fanners are available only for first month in quarter, and for each month the received/paid ratio is based on latest data available. 2 All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates1 ( 33 ) () '111 (:i3) () 111 NOTK.—The official indexes are published on a 1910—14 base as required by law. The indexes have Ix>en converted to a 1990-92=100 bast; to faeilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK. LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES In January, growth in M2 slowed; growth in M3 accelerated. (Series revised.) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 4,800 4,400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 4,800 4,400 4,000 4,000 M3 3,600 3,600 -A— 3,200 3,200 M2 2,800 2,800 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 800 800 jj 400 400 1988 1992 1995 1993 " AVERAGES Of DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD Of GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period 1986198719881989199019911992199319941995- Dec' Dec' Dec' Dec' Dec' Dec1" Dec' Dec' Dec' Dec 1995- Jan ' Feb ' Mar' Apr ' May July ' Sept ' Oct ' Nov Dec 1996- Jan r I L Debt M2 plus large time deposits, RPs, Eurodollars, and institution-only MMMF balances M3 plus other liquid assets Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors (monthly average of adjacent month-end levels) ' 2,734.6 2,834.4 2,997.9 3,164.0 3,282.2 3,383.7 3,438.7 3,494.1 3,509.4 3,670.2 3,486.4 3,673.3 3,912.4 4,065.5 4,124.1 4,178.4 4,187.3 4,249.6 4,319.4 4,582.0 4,122.5 4,328.5 4,664.2 4,894.2 4,975.8 5,004.4 5,075.8 5,164.6 5,303.4 5,695.1 7,918.0 8,671.0 9,446.4 10,173.5 10,854.0 11,338.6 11,881.7 12,516.4 13,153.2 13,841.8 16.9 3.5 4.9 .9 4.0 8.6 14.2 10.2 1.8 -2.1 9.5 3.6 5.8 5.5 3.7 3.1 1.6 1.6 .4 4.6 9.0 5.4 6.5 3.9 1.4 1.3 .2 1.5 1.6 6.1 12.6 9.5 8.9 7.7 6.7 4.5 4.8 5.3 5.1 5.2 1,149.2 1,147.8 1,148.7 1,151.2 1,146.2 1,144.5 1,145.4 1,143.8 1,140.2 1,131.8 1,129.0 1,124.8 3,515.3 3,517.5 3,525.1 3,537.3 3,551.9 3,582.6 3,601.5 3,621.6 3,635.0 3,642.1 3,653.2 3,670.2 4,343.1 4,355.3 4,375.2 4,399.3 4,428.0 4,466.8 4,494.7 4,522.2 4,542.9 4,557.5 4,567.9 4,582.0 5,330.7 5,364.3 5,401.6 5,436.5 5,464.2 5,503.7 5,552.6 5,588.0 5,633.9 5,660.6 5,667.9 P 5,695.1 13,201.9 13,279.8 13,342.3 13,419.4 13,519.6 13,578.2 13,613.1 13,664.9 13,704.0 13,745.0 13,807.8 <"13,841.8 -.4 -.4 -.3 .4 -.4 -.7 — .7 -.7 -1.5 -3.4 -3.0 -3.4 .4 ,8 1.2 1.9 2.6 4.2 4.9 5.9 6.2 5.9 5.7 4.9 3.1 3.7 4.2 4.9 5.7 6.8 7.0 7.7 7.7 7.2 6.3 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.5 5.9 6.2 6.5 6.2 5.8 5.4 4.9 4.3 3.9 1,119.1 3,686.0 4,611.8 -4.6 4.7 5.2 Ml M2 M3 Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OCDs) Ml plus retail MMMF balances, MMDAs, and savings and small time deposits 724.4 749.8 786.9 794.2 825.8 897.2 1,024.4 1,128.6 1,148.7 1,124.8 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State arid local governments, and private nonfiriancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. II Annual <;bangiKS aro from December to Decemiwr and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a simple annual rate. Percent change from year or 6 months earlier 2 Ml M3 Debt NOTE.—See |t. 27 for components. Series revised to reflect annual lx:nc)miark arid seasonal :ljustment revisions as well as a minor redefinition of M2. In the redefinition, overnight wholesale liPs arid overnight Eurodollar's are now r sported on a seasonally adjusted basis and are included in M3. For details, sue Monty Stwk Ri lease dated February 8, 1996 issued by the Hoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Sourer: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 26 M2 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally acjjusted] Other Currency Period 1986: 1987: 19881989: 19901991: 199219931994: 19951995- Demand deposits Dec' Dec' Dec' Dee' Dec' Dec' Dec' Dec' Dec' Dec Jan' Feb' Mar' . June'' July Aug' Sept' Get' Dec 1996: Jan*> 180.7 196.8 212.3 222.6 246.9 267.4 292 9 322.4 354.9 373.2 357.6 359.0 362.3 365.0 367.6 367.0 367.3 368.5 369.5 370.8 371.6 373.2 373.6 302.1 286.8 286.8 279.3 277.4 289.5 339.1 384.3 382.4 389.8 383.3 383.5 382.9 382.1 382.1 386.5 388.5 389.3 389.4 388.1 388.2 389.8 393.5 able deposits (OCDs) 235.6 259.5 280.9 285.3 293.9 332.5 384.2 414.0 402.9 353.0 399.8 396.8 394.8 395.1 387.4 382.0 380.8 377.2 372.4 364.1 360.3 353.0 343.1 Money market mutual fund balances Retail ' 210.3 224.5 246.0 322.5 358.1 373.7 356.0 358.7 388.1 475.1 392.4 394.2 396.2 401.5 410.1 427.4 440.4 452.4 459.4 464.3 469.7 475.1 479.0 Savings deposits, including money market Instideposit tution accounts only 2 (MMDAs) 84.5 91.1 90.3 106.9 133.5 179.5 199.8 197.9 183.7 226.4 940.9 937.3 926.3 893.6 923.8 1,045.0 1,187.1 1,218.8 1,148.9 1,134.5 1,134.7 1,118.0 1,102.5 1,091.2 1,089.5 1,097.0 1,096.2 1.101.6 1,108.4 1,116.1 1,120.6 1,134.5 1,152.9 189.3 188.4 195.0 199.4 203.7 213.2 218.6 218.5 221.7 223.6 224.0 226.4 229.6 1 Balances in money funds with minimum initial investments of less than $50,000. Balances in money funds with minimum initial investments of $50,000 or more. Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. 2 3 Small illation time deposits3 Large denomination time deposits3 859.0 922.7 1,038.6 1,153.7 1,174.5 1,067.8 871.2 788.0 823.7 935.7 839.1 857.5 877.7 893.4 906.1 913.7 919.4 923.8 927.0 929.9 933.9 935.7 935.0 Overnight and term repurchase agroements (RPs) (net) 420.2 467.0 518.3 541.5 480.9 416.5 353.7 333.8 363.5 418.6 364.2 371.8 377.6 381.0 384.5 387.7 394.0 396.8 400.7 410.3 416.3 418.6 421.0 Overnight and term Eurodollars (net) 143.3 172.6 189.0 158.0 138.8 119.4 128.1 157.5 180.4 178.1 186.9 191.3 190.4 191.5 196.8 191.4 188.0 192.2 191.8 189.3 185.3 178.1 183.1 Shortterm BankTreas- ers' acceptury securi- ances ties Savings bonds 37.1 91.8 275.8 103.9 108.2 100.6 249.5 44.5 117.0 109.4 266.8 40.2 95.2 117.5 324.0 40.7 36.1 88.7 126.0 334.2 329.1 23.9 79.3 137.9 20.9 66.9 156.6 345.9 66.3 171.5 342.9 14.9 387.3 82.3 180.3 14.2 88.7 P 184.8 "479.3 Pll.9 87.3 180.5 387.3 13.6 86.4 180.5 400.2 13.5 87.2 180.7 411.1 13.7 90.1 181.2 412.0 13.4 181.7 405.4 91.1 12.0 182.4 414.6 91.8 11.0 12.1 92.6 183.0 433.8 183.5 436.5 12.4 93.1 93.7 183.9 455.6 12.8 92.1 184.2 464.7 13.4 89.1 184.5 465.7 12.6 88.7 P 184.8 ' 479.3 92.0 Commercial paj>er 231.3 260.6 335.4 346.5 355.3 335.2 365.0 385.6 402.4 r 437.1 406.3 414.9 420.9 430.6 437.0 428.9 429.0 433.3 438.6 440.7 437.3 P437.1 NOTE.—Travelers checks of nonbank issuers are a component of money stock but are not shown here. Series revised. See Note, p. 26 for details on the revision. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE [Averages of daily figures1; millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal Reserve (NSA) Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements Reserves of depository institutions Period Total 198619871988: 19891990199119921993199419951995- Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec . Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Jan Feb . . July Sept Oct Dec 1996- J a n . . . . 1 38,940 38,856 40,399 40,498 41,771 45,536 54,354 60,502 59,342 56,334 59,124 58,919 58,552 57,957 57,761 57,352 57,655 57,515 57,368 56,821 56.269 56,334 55,598 Data are prorated averages of biweekly (maintenance period) averages of daily Figures. Nonborrowed 38,113 38.078 38,683 40,232 41,445 45,343 54,230 60,420 59,133 56,077 58,988 58.860 58,483 57,847 57,611 57,080 57,284 57.233 57,091 56,575 56,065 56,077 55,560 Nonborrowed plus extended credit Required Monetary base Total 223,574 239,775 256,897 267,713 293,275 317,432 351,116 386,602 418,223 435,024 827 777 1,716 265 326 192 124 82 209 257 58,992 58,860 58,483 57,847 57,611 57,080 57,284 57,233 57,091 56,575 56,065 56,077 37,570 37.809 39,352 39,575 40,106 44,557 53,199 59,440 58.174 55,056 57,785 57,973 57,757 57,204 56,881 56,388 56,565 56,527 56,418 55,739 '55,326 55,056 421,054 '422,497 '425.207 '427,544 '430,090 '429,264 '429,785 '430,782 '431,652 '432,702 '433.152 435,024 55,560 54,112 435,173 136 59 69 111 150 272 371 282 278 245 204 257 38 38,416 38,562 39,927 40,252 41,468 45,344 54,231 60,420 59,133 56,077 Seasonal 38 93 130 84 76 38 18 31 100 40 46 33 51 82 137 172 231 258 252 199 73 40 7 Extended credit 303 483 1,244 20 23 1 1 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK CREDIT AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS Total commercial bank loans and leases rose 1.0 percent in January; commercial and industrial loans rose 0.9 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 3,200 4,000 3,600 3,200 2,800 2,800 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 4,000 3,600 t_ ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 800 . U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES- 800 \ 400 400 OTHER SECURITIES -V 200 I i i t i I i i 11 t 160 1988 1989 M i [I I i I I I I l l i l l I I Ii 1991 1990 200 11 I I I 1 1 1 1 I I i l l I ll I i I I I I I I I I I I 160 1994 1993 1992 1996 1995 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted J Securities in bank credit Total bank credit Period 1988: 1989: 1990: 1991: 1992: 1993: 1994: 1995: Total securities U.S. Government securities Loans and leases in bank credit Real estate Other securities Total loans and cial and industrial leases 2 Total Revolving home equity Consumer Security Other Other Dec' Dec' Dec' Dec' Dec' Dec' Dec' Dec . 2,436.1 2,609.1 2,751.6 2,856.4 2,957.0 3,113.7 3,326.2 3,595.8 562.0 584.5 633.7 745.0 843.4 918.7 952.3 989.1 366.8 400.0 455.6 565.2 666.8 733.9 732.0 712.7 195.2 184.5 178.2 179.8 176.7 184.8 220.2 276^4 1,874.1 2,024.7 2,117.8 2,111.4 2,113.6 2,195.0 2,374.0 2,606.7 608.0 639.3 640.8 619.5 596.2 585.9 645.2 718.3 675.1 770.2 855.3 880.0 901.3 940.5 1,001.7 1,077.0 40.1 50.3 62.3 69.6 73.5 73.0 75.3 79.2 635.0 719.9 793.0 810.3 827.7 867.5 926.4 997.9 357.8 378.3 383.4 366.6 358.9 390.5 451.2 493.3 40.7 41.4 45.0 54.4 64.1 87.5 76.2 82.7 192.5 195.5 193.2 190.9 193.0 190.6 199.6 235.4 1995: Jan' Peb' Mar' Apr' May' June' July' Aug' Sept' Ocf NoV Dec 3,354.8 3,367.5 3,392.9 3,470.5 3,492.0 3,512.9 3,526.2 3,541.3 3,564.1 3,576.2 3,586.2 3,595.8 950.1 939.3 942.0 996.1 986.1 985.4 975.9 978.1 982.2 985.1 986.8 989.1 729.3 724.8 712.0 708.7 710.8 709.9 703.9 708.5 708.4 713.9 715.8 712.7 220.8 214.5 230.0 287.4 275.3 275.5 272.0 269.6 273.8 271.2 271.1 276.4 2,404.6 2,428.2 2,450.9 2,474.4 2,505.9 2,527.5 2,550.3 2,563.2 2,581.9 2,591.1 2,599.4 2,606.7 656.7 670.2 673.9 680.8 687.8 692.1 697.8 701.9 708.5 710.7 715.0 718.3 1,013.8 1,021.8 1,029.0 1,036.6 1,043.9 1,053.0 1,062.3 1,068.1 1,072.1 1,075.5 1,076.8 1,077.0 75.7 76.0 76.1 76.6 77.2 77.8 78.0 78.2 78.4 78.4 78.8 79.2 938.0 945.9 952.9 959.9 966.7 975.2 984.3 989.8 993.7 997.1 997.9 997.9 457.2 459.4 464.3 470.3 472.9 478.6 481.1 485.7 489.5 489.3 491.2 493.3 73.3 73.4 76.0 77.8 88.3 88.0 87.1 84.3 86.6 86.6 86.2 82.7 203.6 203.3 207.7 208.9 213.0 215.7 222.1 223.2 225.2 229J 230.2 235.4 3,621.9 988.6 704.5 284.1 2,633.2 725.1 1,083.6 79.7 1,003.9 497.7 83.9 242.8 1996: Jan . 1 .... Data are Wednesday vahies or prorated averages of Wednesday values for domestically chartered commercial banks, branches and agencies of foreign banks, New York State investment companies, and foreign-related institutions. Data are adjusted for breaks caused by reclasfjifications of assets and liabilities. 28 2 Excludes Federal funds sold to, reverse repurchase agreements (RPs) with, and Inans to commercial banks in the United States. Source; Board of Gwernors of the Federal Reserve Svstem. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted animal rates] Uses Sources External Credit market funds Period Total Internal ' Total Total 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1993- I . . II III IV 1994- I II Ill IV 1995: I HP 493.8 538.8 564.7 634.2 567.9 536.8 473.6 566.7 563.2 683.2 464.0 543.8 614.6 630.5 666.9 688.2 726.4 651.6 863.5 823.9 351.9 336.7 375.9 404.3 399.6 411.6 426.0 438.4 462.3 499.8 436.4 450.7 476.4 485.7 501.5 498.6 500.2 499.1 510.1 536.8 142.0 202.1 188.8 229.9 168.2 125.2 47.6 128.3 100.9 183.4 27.6 93.1 138.2 144.8 165.4 189.6 226.2 152.5 353.4 287.1 Securities and mortgages Loans and short-term paper 71.5 83.0 49.4 99.8 105.6 68.4 -85.3 3.2 -17.6 104.4 -55.1 10.9 -22.0 -4.1 98.4 90.2 108.7 120.5 189.4 177.1 13.2 65.1 39.9 -4.7 -37.6 -20.0 96.1 67.0 80.0 -30.5 84.0 65.9 99.0 71.1 12.6 30.5 -43.7 -121.5 -27.8 39.6 84.7 148.1 89.3 95.0 68.0 48.4 10.8 70.2 62.4 73.9 28.9 76.8 77.0 67.0 111.0 120.7 65.0 -1.0 161.6 216.7 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowari(*ts, arid foreign branch profits, dividends, and suiwidiaries' earnings retained abroad. ^(^onsists of tax liabilities, trade debt, pension fund liabilities, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. Others Total 57.3 54.0 99.4 134.9 100.2 76.8 36.8 58.1 38.5 109.6 -1.3 16.2 61.3 77.8 54.5 68.9 161.2 153.5 191.9 70.4 467.2 501.7 492.3 575.8 509.4 488.7 435.4 529.0 531.4 664.2 431.7 532.4 553.0 608.4 633.5 660.2 678.0 685.0 812.9 771.7 Increase in financial assets Capital expenditures3 370.2 344.2 361.5 391.0 401.1 402.8 379.8 386.0 440.4 510.4 424.7 441.5 444.1 451.2 462.1 507.7 519.6 552.3 580.5 562.6 Discrepancy (sources less uses) 26.7 37.1 72.4 58.4 58.4 48.1 38.2 37.7 31.9 19.0 32.3 11.4 61.6 22.1 33.3 28.0 48.4 -33.5 50.6 52.1 97.0 157.5 130.9 184.8 108.3 85.9 55.6 143.0 91.0 153.8 7.0 90.9 108.9 157.2 171.4 152.5 158.4 132.7 232.4 209.1 : * Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government, NOTE.—Revised data based on Iwnchmark revisions of national income and product accounts data are not yet available, Source: Hoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT | Billions of dollars; seasonally a<|justed! Installment credit outstanding (end of period) Period 19861987198819891990199119921993199419951995- Dec Dec Dec:l Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Deep Jan Feb Anr July Ausr Sept Ocf DecP 1 Total .. 572.0 608.7 662.6 717.2 734.9 728.4 730.8 790.4 902.9 1,022.9 914.4 918.9 933.0 946.3 959.1 970.6 979.4 989.7 993.8 1,005.2 1,015.0 1,022.9 Automobile Revolving 247.8 266.3 285.4 291.5 283.1 259.6 257.4 280.6 317.2 353.1 319.3 321.0 323.3 326.2 328.0 330.7 337.1 339.8 341.2 344.7 349.1 353.1 For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month. 2 Outstanding loans for mobile homes, education, Ixiats, trailers, vacations, etc. 135.8 153.1 174.3 199.2 223.5 245.3 258.1 286.6 334.5 394.8 340.2 345.1 351.5 358.7 366.1 372.3 375.3 379.7 382.1 387.2 390.1 394.8 Net change in installment credit outstanding ' Other 2 188.4 189.3 202.9 226.5 228.3 223.5 215.3 223.2 251.1 275.1 254.9 252.8 258.2 261.4 265.0 267.5 267.0 270.3 270.6 273.3 275.8 275.1 Total 54.3 36.7 53.9 (4) 17.7 -6.5 2.4 59.6 112.5 120.0 11.5 4.5 14.1 13.3 12.8 11.5 8.8 10.3 4.1 11.4 9.8 7.9 Automobile 37.6 18.5 19.1 (4) -8.4 -23.5 -2.2 23.2 36.6 35.9 2.1 1.7 2.3 2.9 1.8 2.7 6.4 2.7 1.4 3.5 4.4 4.0 Revolving 14.0 17.3 21.2 (4) 24.3 21.8 12.8 28.5 47.9 60.3 5.7 4.9 6.4 7.2 7.4 6.2 3.0 4.4 2.4 5.1 2.9 4.7 Other 2 2.7 .9 13.6 4 ( ) 1.8 -4.8 -8.2 7.9 27.9 24.0 3.8 -2.1 5.4 3.2 3.6 2.5 -.5 3.3 .3 2.7 2.5 -.7 :J Data newly available in January 19H9 result in breaks in i iany series lietween Deeenilwr 1988 and subsequent months. 4 Ilecause of breaks in series, net change not available. Source: Hoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS After declining in January and early February, interest rates rose slightly. PERCENT PER ANNUM 14 PERCENT PER ANNUM 14 12 12 10 10 \ \/~ (MOODY1 S) \ 8 / 6_ /^i— TREASURY BILLS '"V...... —' \y -~ '""X, ! DISCOUNT RATE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK NV ~! I 6 ^---.._ -<r 1 1 1111 Mill Mill 1989 IIMI i i 11 1 1 . 1 i M 1990 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 M 1992 1991 I 4 /r ""' ''-:-. 19 )8 A ^ \ I 1 4 2 8 k v ' 1 1 1 1 M 1993 M 1 M 1 1 1 Mill 1994 M 1995 2 1 1.1 I 1996 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS JOUSCE: SE TABLE BEIOW [Percent per annum] U.S. Treasury security yields Period 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1995- Jan Feb Mar Apr May •Juno July Aue Sept Get Nov Dec 1996- -Jan 3-month bills (new issues) J Constant maturities 3-year 2 10-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor's) 3 G'orporate Aaa bonds ( Moody 's) Prime commercial paper, 6 months1 5.98 5.82 6.69 8.12 7.51 5.42 3.45 3.02 4.29 5.51 5.81 5.80 5.73 5.67 5.70 5.50 5.47 5.41 5.26 5.30 5.35 5.36 5.02 7.06 7.68 8.26 8.55 8.26 6.82 5.30 4.44 6.27 6.25 7.66 7.25 6.89 6.68 6.27 5.80 5.89 6.10 5.89 5.77 5.57 5.39 5.20 7.68 8.39 8.85 8.49 8.55 7.86 7.01 5.87 7.09 6.57 7.78 7.47 7.20 7.06 6.63 6.17 6.28 6.49 6.20 6.04 5.93 5.71 5.65 7.38 7.73 7.76 7.24 7.25 6.89 6.41 5.63 6.19 5.95 6.53 6.24 6.10 6.01 5.90 5.83 5.98 6.07 5.88 5.77 5.61 5.42 5.42 9.02 9.38 9.71 9.26 9.32 8.77 8.14 7.22 7.97 7.59 8.46 8.26 8.12 8.03 7.65 7.30 7.41 7.57 7.32 7.12 7.02 6.82 6.8] 6.39 6.85 7.68 8.80 7.95 5.85 3.80 3.30 4.93 5.93 6.63 6.38 6.30 6.19 6.07 5.79 5.68 5.75 5.66 5.71 5.59 5.43 5.23 5.02 4.99 5.01 4.88 4.80 4.78 5.13 5.18 5.10 5.03 4.94 5.28 5.58 5.65 5.64 5.67 5.65 5.97 5.42 5.42 5.40 5.37 5.32 5.53, 6.80 6.81 6.82 6.87 6.86 7.13 5.23 5.17 5.09 4.98 4.93 4.99 Discount rate (N.Y. F.R. Bank) 4 Prime rate charged by banks4 6.33 5.66 6.20 6.93 6.98 5.45 3.25 3.00 3.60 5.21 8.33 8.21 9.32 16.87 10.01 8.46 6.25 6.00 7.15 8.83 4.75-4.75 4.75-5.25 5.25-5.25 5.25-5.25 5.25-5.25 5.25-5.25 5.25-5.25 5.25-5.25 5.25-5.25 5.25-5.25 5.25-5.25 5.25-5.25 8.50-8.50 8.50-9.00 9.00-9.00 9.00-9.00 9.00-9.00 9.00-9.00 9.00-8.75 8.75-8.75 8.75-8.75 8.75-8.75 8.75-8.75 8.75-8.50 5.25-5.00 8.50-8.50 5.25-5.25 5.25-5.25 5.25-5.00 5.00-5.00 5.00-5.00 5.00-5.00, 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.25 8.25-8.25 8.25-8.25 8.25-8.25 New-home mortgage yields (FHFB) 5 10.17 9.31 9.19 10.13 10.05 9.32 8.24 7.20 7.49 7.87 8.18 8.28 8.21 8.15 7.99 7.73 7.78 7.75 7.69 7.58 7.46 7.40 Week ended: 1996- Jan 20 27 Fcb 3 10 17 24 1 Bank-discount basis. Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 1 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 2 30 5 Effective rate (in the primary market.) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Sources: Department, of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Housing1 Finance Board, Moodv's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices rose in January and February. INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965=50 (RATIO SCALE) 340 320 300 280 260 240 / ^ 220 /—' 200 A 180 ^ 160 /^r^^ 140 INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965=50 (RATIO SC ALE) 340 s\ 320 300 280 260 / •/ — "^i ^ ~ 1 \r— 240 \y f /-^ \ 220 COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX (NYSE) ' / 200 180 160 140 ^ 120 120 1 1 1 1i 100 i iMi 1 M 1 1 ! 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i i Mi 1989 1990 1988 1 1 1 M M i l l M 1 M I1 M 1 1 i i i i I M i l ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I i i i I M i l l 100 1996 1994 1995 PERCE NT 20 1 1 1 1 1 M i l l 1992 1991 1993 PER CENT 20 15 15 EARNINGS-F RICE RATIO ON COMMC)N STOCKS (S&P) 10 -» — 5 i 0 i 1 1 „,-"• i 1 1989 1988 / >~-_ i i i 1990 i —„ i 1991 l l 1992 i 10 ——-i ,. . 5 '•"''•*• i I 1 1994 1993 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION i i i 1995 Common stock6yields (percent) New York Stock Exchange indexes (Dec. 31, 1965 except as noted) 2 Composite 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1995- Jan Feb July Sept Oct Dec 1996- Jan Week ended: 1996- Jan 20 27 Feb 3 . . 10 17 ... 24 1 Average of clailv closing prices. 3 Includes all the stocks (more than 3 Industrial Transportation Finance Standard & Poor's composite index (194143=10)s Dividendprice ratio 3.49 3.08 3.64 3.45 3.61 3.24 2.99 2.78 2.82 2.56 2.87 2.81 2.76 2.68 2.60 2.55 2.50 2.49 2.42 2.41 2.37 2.30 273.73 236.34 286.83 265.79 322.84 334.59 376.18 415.74 451.41 460.33 541.64 465.25 481.92 493.15 507.91 523.81 539.35 557.37 559.11 578.77 582.92 595.53 614.57 614.42 271.93 276.09 283.70 289.60 293.59 291 .67 5,101.59 5,228.61 5,372.11 5,488.08 5,567.12 5,553.36 606.94 616.96 632.94 650.03 655.37 651.67 2.35 2.30 2.25 2.21 2.20 2.22 147.20 146.48 127.26 151.88 133.26 150.82 179.26 216.42 209.73 238.45 201.05 211.76 213.29 219.38 228.55 236.26 240.50 245.27 260.72 265.12 266.12 273.36 412.71 254.07 406.70 414.47 425.22 435.09 438.89 438.08 296.77 299.15 304.31 312.48 316.75 319.46 254.34 252.85 256.09 262.41 261.66 254.82 325.48 330.47 338.57 346.37 349.26 347.43 Dow-Jones industrial average4 1,792.76 2,275.99 2,060.82 2,508.91 2,678.94 2,929.33 3,284.29 3,522.06 3,793.77 4,493.76 3,872.46 3,953.72 4,062.78 4,230.66 4.391.57 4,510.76 4,684.76 4,639.27 4,746.76 4,760.46 4,935.81 5,136.10 5,179.37 142.72 148.59 143.53 174.87 181.20 185.32 198.91 228.90 209.06 220.30 201.16 207.73 204.16 208.93 211.58 216.27 219.18 221.99 229.64 236.43 238.98 247.59 155.85 195.31 180.95 216.23 225.78 258.14 284.62 299.99 315.25 367.34 319.93 328.98 337.96 347.69 357.01 366.75 379.13 379.79 390.42 389.63 398.66 412.11 2,000 in 1992) listed on the NYSE. Dec. 31, 1965=100. Effective April 27, 1993 the NYSE doubled the value of the utility index to facilitate trading of options and futures on the index. All indexes shown here reflect the doubling. 4 Includes 30 stocks. * Includes 500 stocks. Utility3 119.87 140.39 134.12 175.28 158.62 173.99 201.09 242.49 247.29 269.41 230.25 237.29 244.45 254.36 254.69 256.80 279.15 285.63 295.54 291.16 300.06 303.53 300.30 136.00 161.70 149.91 180.02 183.46 206.33 229.01 249.58 254.12 291.15 253.56 261.86 266.81 274.37 281.81 289.52 298.18 300.05 310.41 311.78 317.58 327.90 329.22 0 1 1996 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Common stock prices * Period i Earningsprice ratio 6.09 5.48 8.01 7.41 6.47 4.79 4.22 4.46 5.83 6.51 6.32 6.01 2.31 6 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. NOTK.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Sfeiek Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first 4 months of fiscal 1996, there was a deficit of $36.6 billion, compared with a deficit of $57.8 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF IXDUARS BILLIOhJS OF DOLLARS 1,600 RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYSv 1,500 1,600 1,500 ^ — """ 1,400 OUTLAYS^ _ . 1,400 •" " '"" 1,300 1,300 ^- '""""" 1,200 ^^ ---''' 1,100 ----•""*' 1,000 ——~r 1,100 "—" 1,000 17 ^ 900 1,200 ^--^^ RECEIPTS- 900 _^-—^ 800 800 """ 700 700 1 600 /] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 K 600 N V 0 0 -100 ^^— ^~^^ ^__ -200 -200 "" -300 -400 /I V ^ 1 1986 1 1987 1 1988 "^-— -——-_-———~^^ 1 1 1989 1990 -" INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET HEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT Of THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET 1 1991 1 1992 1 1 1993 1994 N -400 1995 ^ F ' COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Receipts 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995' Cumulative total, first 4 months: ' Fiscal year 1995 Fiscal year 1996 1 298.1 Outlays 909.0 990.7 1,031.3 1,054.3 1,090.5 1,153.5 1,257.7 1,350.6 371.8 409.2 458.7 504.0 590.9 678.2 745.8 808.4 851.8 946.4 990.3 1,003.9 1,064.1 1,143.2 1,252.7 1,323.4 1,380.9 1,408.7 1,460.9 1,514.4 439.3 466.8 497.1 503.4 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 734.1 769.1 854.1 Surplus or deficit (-) Receipts 32 Outlays -73.7 -53.7 -59.2 -40.7 -73.8 -79.0 231.7 -128.0 -207.8 -185.4 474.3 453.2 500.4 -212.3 -221.2 -149.8 -155.2 -152.5 -221.4 -269.2 -290.4 -255.1 -203.2 -163.8 547.9 568.9 640.7 667.5 727.0 749.7 760.4 788.0 922.7 999.5 769.6 806.8 810.1 861.4 932.3 1,027.6 1,081.8 1,128.5 1,142.1 1,181.5 1,225.7 -57.8 -36.6 332.4 356.8 410.0 413.7 278.7 314.2 365.3 403.9 469.1 841.6 302.2 328.5 369.1 404.1 476.6 543.1 594.4 661.3 686.0 Surplus or deficit (-) -70.5 -49.8 -54.9 -38.7 -72.7 -74.0 -120.1 -208.0 -185.7 -221.7 -238.0 -169.3 -194.0 -205.2 -278.0 -321.4 -340.5 -300.5 -258.8 -226.2 -77.6 -56.9 Receipts Outlays Gross Federal debt (end of period) Surplus or deficit (-) Total United States (itnwrnment, Ft.sm/ Year Held by the public 351.1 252.3 266.6 279.4 288.7 -3.2 -3.9 -4.3 -2.0 -1.1 -5.0 -7.9 .2 .3 9.4 16.7 19.6 38.8 52.8 56.6 52.2 50.1 45.3 55.7 62.4 1,817.5 2,120.6 2,346.1 2,601.3 2,868.0 3,206.6 3,598.5 4,002.1 4,351.4 4,643.7 4,921.0 477.4 549.1 607.1 640.3 709.8 785.3 919.8 1,131.6 1,300.5 1,499.9 1,736.7 1,888.7 2,050.8 2,189.9 2,410.7 2,688.1 2,998.8 3,247.5 3,432.2 3,603.3 106.9 110.0 87.1 89.7 19.9 20.3 4,762.5 4,937.7 3,505.2 3,631.9 66.4 76.8 85.4 98.0 113.2 130.2 143.5 147.3 166.1 186.2 200.2 213.4 241.5 263.7 281.7 293.9 302.4 311.9 335.0 69.6 80.7 89.7 100.0 114.3 135.2 151.4 147.1 165.8 176.8 183.5 193.8 202.7 210.9 225.1 241.7 629.0 706.4 776.6 829.5 909.1 994.8 1,137.3 1,371.7 1,564.7 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management arid Budget. Data from MantMy Trtxutury Statement. NoTB.—Data (except as noted) are from liufiget oftfw /.9.%; issued February ft, 1995. Off-budget On-budget Total Fiscal year or period FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 4 months of fiscal 1996, receipts were $27.5 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $6.3 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILUONS OF DOLLARS /U ° /(JO RECEIPTS^ INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES 500 - -•-• \ T INCOME TAXES OTHER RECEIPTS '' 1 100 0 500 400 "™ •"••' 300 200 ==: T \ TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS nM \ 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 0 1,300 1,300 OUTLAYS^ _.---.-.--*"""" NONDEFENSE \ _^-- 1 000 \^-""~ ^-'"*^"" 800 500 NATIONAL DEFENSE 400 \ 200 X| 1 * 1986 1 1987 1 1988 300 1 1 1989 1990 1 1991 1 1 1 1992 1993 1994 -" INOJUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT Of THE TREASURY AND CfflCE Of MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [N 200 1995N COUNOl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] On-budgct and off-budget receipts Fiscal year or period Total 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995' Cumulative total, first 4 months: J Fiscal war 1996 .. . Social insurCorIndiance poravidual tion income income taxes and taxes taxes contributions 298.1 355.6 399.6 463 3 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 131.6 157.6 181.0 217.8 244.1 285.9 297.7 288.9 298.4 41.4 54.9 60.0 65.7 64.6 61.1 49.2 37.0 56.9 734.1 769.1 854.1 909.0 990.7 1 031 3 1,054.3 1.090.5 1.153.5 1.257.7 1,350.6 334.5 349.0 392.6 401.2 445.7 466.9 467.8 476.0 509.7 543.1 590.2 61.3 63.1 83.9 94.5 103.3 93.5 98.1 100.3 117.5 140.4 157.1 439.3 214.0 466.8 230.7 39.7 47.1 On-budget and off-budget outlays Nationa defense Other Total Department of Defense, military InternationHealth al affairs Medicare 371.8 409.2 458.7 504.0 590.9 678.2 745.8 808.4 851.8 89.6 97.2 104.5 .116.3 134.0 157.5 185.3 209.9 227.4 87.9 95.1 102.3 113.6 130.9 153.9 180.7 204.4 220.9 6.4 6.4 7.5 7.5 12.7 13.1 12.3 11.8 15.9 265.2 73.0 946.4 283.9 73.1 990.3 303.3 74.3 1,003.9 334.3 78.9 1,064.1 359.4 82.3 1.143.2 380.0 90.9 1,252.7 396.0 92.3 1,323.4 413.7 100.5 1,380.9 428.3 98.0 1,408.7 461.5 132.8 1,460.9 484.5 118.9 1,514.4 252.7 273.4 282.0 290.4 303.6 299.3 273.3 298.4 291.1 281.6 272.2 245.2 265.5 274.0 281.9 294.9 289.8 262.4 286.9 278.6 268.6 259.6 16.2 33.5 14.2 35.9 11.6 40.0 10.5 44.5 9.6 48.4 13.8 57.7 15.9 71.2 16.1 89.5 17.2 99.4 17.1 107.1 16.4 114.8 65.8 70.2 75.1 78.9 85.0 98.1 104.5 119.0 130.6 144.7 159.9 87.8 85.2 83.5 80.9 36.8 37.1 49.8 55.6 90.8 106.5 121.0 138.9 157.8 182.7 201.5 209.0 239.4 146.9 150.3 34.3 36.6 37.7 40.8 50.6 69.5 69.3 65.6 71.8 38.7 38.7 1 Data from Monthly Trtasttry Sttit(~mcnt. XOTE.—Data (except as notwl) are from Bwlyft of tkt United .S'Jofe* Gmxrnment. Fixctil Year 1996, issued February 6, 19!>5. Total 497.1 503.4 8.8 4.2 15.7 17.3 18.5 20.5 23.2 26.9 27.4 28.6 30.4 Income security Social security Net interest 15.8 60.8 73.9 26.7 19.3 61.0 85.1 29.9 22.8 61.5 93.9 35.5 26.5 66.4 104.1 42.6 32.1 86.5 118.5 52.5 39.1 99.7 1396 68.8 46.6 107.7 156.0 85.0 52.6 122.6 170.7 89.8 57.5 112.7 178.2 111.1 Otber 82.8 93.0 114.7 120.2 131.4 133.5 125.4 122.3 118.6 188.6 198.8 207.4 219.3 232.5 248.6 269.0 287.6 304.6 319.6 335.8 129.5 136.0 138.7 151.8 169.3 184.2 194.5 199.4 198.8 203.0 232.2 131.8 142.1 125.9 139.4 158.8 203.9 224.8 173.9 159.7 173.8 162.9 67,1 108.3 69.6 113.2 75.8 80.3 62.7 58.3 128.2 119.8 123.3 129.3 136.0 147.0 1 70.3 196.9 207.3 214.0 220.2 Sources: Department r»(* the Treasury and Office of Manajjement and Budjret. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the third quarter of 1995, Federal receipts rose $3.4 billion (annual rate) and Federal expenditures rose $4.3 billion. In the fourth quarter, according to advance estimates, expenditures rose $1.4 billion; receipts data are incomplete. (Series revised.) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLONS OF DOLLARS 1,800 1,800 SEASONAHY ADJUSTED AWJUAL RATES - 1,600 -.-"" 1,400 EXPENDITURES 1,200 .--'> s ^ 1,000 - ,— f ^-- s" 1,400 S* —• V , 800 1,600 _. *• - " ~ - ,.j^" 1,200 ^ "" - S """ ""* 1,000 jT^ ,--"' - _—^- 800 ^s — - '^ ^ 600 600 400 400 200 200 CURREMT S JRPLUS OR DEFICIT | -) - •—--.. - 0 0 ^~-*-^_^ -200 -400 ^ i ii 1982 - X— — . S" J^ S ^ •X 1 " I I I i i i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1 ! I I I 1988 1 1 1 1989 1 1 I 1990 ! 1 1991 [ -200 ^^ -\ ^—' i i i 1992 i i i 1993 i i i ! 1994 1995 1 i -400 CAlEND« YEARS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Government receipts Period Total Federal Government current expenditures Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Contributions for social insurance Total Consumption expenditures Transfer payments Grantsin-aid to Net State interest and paid local governments Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Current suq}lus or deficit (-), national income and product accounts Calendar vear: 1989' ".. 1990' 1991 r 1992' 1993' 1994' 1995P 1,079.3 1,129.8 1,149.0 1,198.5 1,275.3 1,377.0 463.4 485.7 476.9 490.8 523.6 561.4 615.1 117.1 118.0 109.8 118.6 137.5 164.4 61.7 65.1 79.7 81.9 88.2 92.6 91.2 437.1 461.1 482.6 507.1 526.0 558.6 588.4 1,192.7 1,284.5 ,345.0 ,479.4 ,530.0 ,566.9 ,641.0 405.2 426.6 445.9 451.0 451.4 450.6 453.9 471.7 513.3 522.2 625.1 658.7 682.6 720.5 118.2 132.4 153.4 172.2 185.7 195.9 206.1 166.7 179.9 192.7 195.8 192.3 201.4 229.3 30.8 32.4 30.8 35.1 41.8 36.4 31.3 1990- IV' 1991: IV' 1992- IV' 1,135.2 1,160.9 1,230.5 484.9 479.0 510.0 117.4 111.1 123.7 67.4 82.8 86.5 465.6 488.1 510.3 ,313.0 ,399.8 ,509.5 437.7 440.5 457.7 526.1 565.8 643.3 137.1 162.7 176.3 177.8 200.0 191.8 34.4 30.9 40.3 .0 .0 .0 .0 o '.0 .0 1993- I' II' Ill' IV 1,225.2 1.271.3 1.280.3 1,324.4 501.0 521.0 529.1 543.4 127.5 136.5 133.7 152.2 84.3 87.5 87.2 93.7 512.4 526.2 530.3 535.1 ,508.9 ,520.5 ,533.8 ,556.8 450.8 447.9 453.0 453.8 645.6 654.3 660.4 674.6 1 77.3 181.5 187.2 197.0 190.4 193.2 192.7 192.9 44.7 43.6 40.5 38.6 .0 .0 .0 .0 - 283.7 - 249.2 - 253.5 -232.4 1994- I' II' Ill' IV' 1.321.9 1,382.8 1,387.1 1,416.3 539.3 571.3 560.4 574.5 144.3 162.2 171.3 180.0 92.8 91.3 93.3 93.2 545.5 558.1 562.1 568.6 .534.7 ,552.7 ,573.5 ,606.8 440.7 445.1 455.5 455.3 671.2 676.6 681.5 701.2 192.2 197.5 196.9 196.9 188.2 198.2 204.4 214.9 36.5 35.3 35.2 38.5 .0 .0 .0 .0 -212.9 - 169.9 -186.3 -190.4 1995: I' II' III' 1,449.3 1,483.2 1,486.6 594.6 624.4 617.3 624.2 183.1 180.7 189.1 91.7 93.5 88.4 91.3 579.9 584.6 591.8 597.2 ,622.6 ,643.8 1,648.1 1,649.5 454.8 456.1 453.5 451.2 708.6 715.2 727.0 731.2 205.8 211.3 203.8 203.3 221.2 229.2 232.7 234.1 32.3 32.0 31.1 29.7 .0 .0 .0 .0 - 173.3 - 160.5 -161.6 rv> NOTE.—See Note, p. 1. 34 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 0.0 .1 -113.4 -154.7 -196.0 - 280.9 -254.7 - 189.9 -177.7 - 238.8 - 279.0 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Consumer prices (1982-84=100; NSA) Industrial production (1987=100; seasonally adjust**!) Period Unite] States 95.3 100.0 104.4 106.0 106.0 104.2 107.7 111.5 118.1 121.9 119.9 120.5 121.5 121.8 121.7 121.9 121.4 121.3 121.4 121.5 122.7 '122.8 '122.2 '122.4 122.6 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995P 1994- Get Dec 1995- Jan Peb Mar May July Sept Get Nov DecP 1 Japan Canada 95.4 100.0 105.3 105.2 101.7 97.4 98.5 102.9 109.6 111.9 113.6 114.3 114.8 '114.4 '113.5 113.7 114.1 113.1 '114.0 114.2 114.4 114.1 114.7 96.7 100.0 109.4 115.7 120.6 122.9 115.8 111.0 112.3 1158 112.5 115.7 115.3 114.0 116.3 118.1 117.0 116.4 115.4 112.8 116.5 113.4 115.0 116.6 117.7 France Italy Germany United Kingdom United States' 98.0 100.0 104.6 108.9 111.0 111.0 109.7 105.6 111.0 99.6 100.0 103.9 108.8 114.5 -118.7 116.3 107.4 110.8 96.2 100.0 105.9 109.2 109.4 108.4 108.2 105.5 110.7 96.2 100.0 104.8 107.0 106.7 102.8 102.7 104.7 110.0 '112.0 112.6 '113.4 '113.9 112.5 '114.8 '113.0 '115.2 '114.9 '115.4 '115.4 113.1 111.0 112.7 112.9 116.1 109.8 '111.1 '110.6 '111.3 '112.2 '111.2 '113.3 '109.5 '110.0 107.6 107.5 112.5 112.5 119.1 114.3 115.0 116.4 117.4 115.9 116.3 117.1 124.1 118.7 118.2 111.6 110.7 111.4 111.3 112.0 113.0 112.1 112.4 112.0 '112.8 '112.7 '113.2 112.3 112.8 Data relate to all urban consumers. 109.6 113.6 118.3 124.0 130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 149.5 149.7 149.7 150.3 150.9 151.4 151.9 152.2 152.5 152.5 152.9 153.2 153.7 153.6 153.5 Canada 113.4 118.4 123.2 129.3 135.5 143.1 145.2 147.9 148.2 151.4 148.2 149.0 149.2 149.8 150.5 150.8 151.2 151.6 151.6 151.9 151.8 151.8 151.8 152.0 151.8 Japan France 104.8 104.9 105.7 108.0 111.4 115.0 116.9 118.5 119.3 119.2 120.0 119.7 119.4 119.4 118.9 118.8 119.3 119.6 119.5 118.7 118.9 119.7 119.4 118.9 119.0 Germany 117.2 120.9 124.2 128.6 133.0 137.2 140.6 143.5 145.9 148.4 146.7 146.7 146.5 146.9 147.5 147.9 148.0 148.3 148.3 148.0 148.7 149.2 149.3 149.5 149.6 United Kindlon! Italy 104.7 104.9 106.3 109.2 '112.2 '116.2 '120.9 '125.2 '128.6 130.8 '128.9 '129.0 '129.4 '129.6 '130.3 '130.3 '130.5 '130.7 '131.1 '131.5 '131.2 131.1 131.0 131.0 131.4 128.5 134.4 141.1 150.4 159.5 169.8 178.8 186.3 193.6 204.0 195.8 196.5 197.2 197.9 199.5 201.2 202.2 203.5 204.6 204.7 205.4 206.0 207.1 208.3 208.7 114.9 119.7 125.6 135.4 148.2 156.9 162.7 165.3 169.3 175.2 170.6 170.7 171.5 171.5 172.6 173.3 175.1 175.8 176.0 175.2 176.1 176.9 176.0 176.0 177.1 Source: National sounds as rejM>rted by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis ami International Trade Administration, Office of Trade ami Economic Analysis). U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES [Billions of dollars; montlily data seasonally adjusted] C.ensus 1lasts ' (l\>y eric \-use• ) ategory)11 Period HOP l>asis AutomoCaptive ital Foods, Total, feeds, SUp- goods vehicles, and except C!cnsus plics auto- parts bevbasis2 and moerages and mate- tive enrials gines Industrial HOP basis Consumer goods (nonfood) except automotive BOP basis Auto- ConInmo- sumer CapFoods dustive goods ital trial Total, feeds, sup- goods vehi- (nonfood) elcs, except Census and plies auto- part* except basis-* bevautoand moerages and mate- tive moenrials tive gines 227.2 254.1 322.4 363.8 393.6 421.7 448.2 465.1 512.6 22.3 24.3 32.3 37.2 35.1 35.7 40.3 40.6 41.9 57.3 66.7 85.1 99.3 104.4 109.7 109.1 111.8 121.4 75.8 86.2 109.2 138.8 152.7 166.7 175.9 181.7 205.2 21.7 24.6 29.3 34.8 37.4 40.0 47.0 52.4 57.6 14.2 17.7 23.1 36.4 43.3 45.9 51.4 54.7 60.0 368.4 409.8 447.2 477.4 498.3 491.0 536.5 589.4 668.6 365.4 406.2 441.0 473.2 495.3 488.5 532.7 580.7 663.3 24.4 24.8 24.8 25.1 26.6 26.5 27.fi 27.9 31.0 101.3 111.0 118.3 132.3 143.2 131.6 138.6 145.6 162.0 1994: Nov Dec 44.4 46.2 45.3 47.2 4.0 4.2 10.7 11.3 18.0 18.7 5.0 5.5 .4 .3 59.7 59.4 59.5 59.2 2.6 2.7 14.5 14.2 1995: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept' Oct Nov 44.9 45.6 47.9 47.2 48.3 47.4 46.4 49.1 49.8 49.0 49.4 45.6 46.3 48.7 47.8 49.1 48.2 47.1 49.8 50.5 49.8 50.2 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.8 4.4 4.4 11.6 11.7 12.fi 12.3 12.4 12.7 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.6 11.8 17.1 17.9 19.2 18.8 19.4 19.5 19.0 20.0 19.7 20.3 20.8 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.1 4.5 4.4 5.3 5.6 4.8 4.9 .1 .3 .4 .3 .5 .4 .2 .5 .5 .5 .5 60.7 59.9 62.5 63.5 64.3 63.9 62.6 62.6 63.5 62.7 61.9 60.5 59.7 61.6 62.6 63.1 63.0 62.4 62.4 63.3 62.3 61.6 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 14.5 14.4 5.3 5.5 5.8 5.7 5.3 14.9 15.3 14.7 14.9 1 2 Includes undocumented exports to Canada through 1988. Total includes "other" exports or imports, not shown separately. Balance of trade l(X|)oi minus impo •) Ci Iwsis ' M i 1 , category) 1 t^nsus (oy end-use 223.3 250.2 320.2 362.1 389.3 416.9 440.4 456.8 502.5 1986 1987 1 988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Services (HOP basis) Goods: Imports (customs value) Goods: Exports (f.a.s. value) Exports Irn|M)rts Goods, Census basis Goods Services Goods and services 71.8 78.2 85.2 84.5 101.4 87.7 1 13.3 86.1 87.3 116.4 85.7 120.7 91.8 134.3 152.4 102.4 184.4 118.3 79.4 88.7 95.9 102.9 105.7 108.0 122.7 134.0 146.3 86.5 98.5 111.1 127.4 147.8 164.3 178.6 187.8 198.7 81.0 91.7 99.5 103.5 118.8 119.fi 122.0 130.0 138.8 - 138.3 -152.1 - 1 1 8.5 - 109.4 -101.7 -66.7 -84.5 -115.6 - 150.6 -145.1 - 159.6 -127.0 -115.2 -109.0 -74.1 -96.1 -132.6 -166.1 5.5 6.9 11.6 23.9 29.0 44.7 56.6 57.8 59.9 -139.6 -152.7 -115.3 -91.4 -80.0 -29.4 -39.5 -74.8 -106.2 16.8 16.8 10.7 10.8 12.9 12.9 17.3 17.0 11.7 11.6 -14.2 - 12.0 -15.3 -13.3 .6 .4 -9.7 -7.9 17.1 16.9 17.6 18.0 18.1 18.7 18.9 18.9 19.3 19.7 19.3 11.0 10.8 10.7 11.0 10.7 10.4 10.0 10.4 10.4 9.5 9.6 13.3 13.1 13.3 13.6 13.8 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.9 17.3 16.5 17.4 '17.2 17.3 '17.3 '17.3 '17.3 17.7 17.8 17.9 11.8 11.7 12.1 '12.1 12.1 '12.2 '12.1 '12.1 12.2 12.2 12.5 -14.9 -13.4 -12.9 -14.8 -14.1 -14.7 -15.3 -12.5 - 12.8 - 12.5 -11.4 -15.8 - 14.3 - 14.5 -16.3 -16.0 -16.5 -16.2 -13.5 -13.7 - 13.7 - 12.5 .5 -10.3 .8 - 9.5 -9.2 .3 ' .1 '-11.2 -10.8 ' .1 ' .1 '-11.4 ' .2 '-11.1 ' .3 '-8.2 .5 -8.2 .6 -8.2 -7.1 .4 NOTE.—BO1* refers to Manee of payments on international transactions Iwsis. BOI* data shown liere are consistent with figures shown on pp. 36 and 37. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of tfie Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis). 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the third quarter of 1995, the merchandise trade deficit fell to $43.4 billion, from $48.8 billion in the second quarter. The current account deficit fed to $39.5 billion, from $43.3 billion in the second quarter. BIL'-iONSOFDOLlARS* BILLIONS Of DOLLARS • 1985 * 5EASONAU.Y ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted. Credits ( + ), debits ( — ) ] Services Merchandise ' Investment income Net Period Exports 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1993: I II m IV 1994: I II in IV 1995: I II ll\p Imports Net balance Net military transactions23 travel and transportation receipts -332,418 -338,088 -368,425 - 409,765 -447,189 -477,365 -498,337 - 490,981 - 536,458 - 589,441 -668,584 111,862 114,131 111,576 119,254 - 140,821 -147,718 -148,181 -152,721 -28,959 -33,587 -36,605 - 33,467 118,445 122,730 127,384 133,926 - 154,935 - 164,224 -172,011 -177,414 -36,490 -41,494 - 44,627 -43,488 138,061 142,850 145,315 -183,111 -191,652 -188,748 - 45,050 - 48,802 - 43,433 401 90 283 -326 -31 376 1,124 679 542 587 736 net Balance on goods and services Net Balance on goods, services, and income Unilateral transfers, net 4 Balance on current account 104,756 93,677 91,976 100,767 129,070 152,517 160,300 137,003 118,425 119,248 137,619 -74,036 - 73,087 -79,095 -91,302 -115,806 -138,858 - 139,574 -121,892 - 108,346 - 110,248 - 146,891 30,720 20,590 12,881 9,465 13,264 13,659 20,725 15,111 10,079 9,000 -9,272 -78,353 -101,290 - 126,670 -143,231 - 102,060 -77,733 - 59,268 - 14,293 -29,402 -65,841 -115,484 - 20,598 -22,954 -24,189 -23,107 - 25,023 -26,106 -33,393 6,869 -32,148 -34,084 -35,761 -98,951 - 124,243 - 150,859 -166,338 -127,083 -103,839 -92,661 - 7,424 - 61,549 -99,925 -151,245 5,302 5,389 5,062 4,131 9,683 9,315 9,272 9,172 - 13,573 -18,793 -21,988 - 20,490 28,950 29,958 29,931 30,412 -25,239 - 27,893 -26,741 -30,376 3,711 2,065 3,190 - 9,862 -16,728 -18,798 -20,454 -7,521 -7,609 -8,234 - 10,722 - 17,383 - 24,337 -27,032 -31,176 4,642 4,647 4,792 5,247 8,863 9,548 9,904 10,095 -23,016 - 26,923 -28,807 -27,467 30,942 32,338 36,031 38,307 -30,826 -34,623 -38,564 -42,878 -2,285 -2,533 -4,571 - 22,900 -29,208 -31,340 -32,038 -7,371 -8,778 -8,374 -11,239 -30,271 -37,986 -39,714 -43,277 5,050 4,380 4,480 10,018 10,402 10,698 -29,440 -33,433 -27,519 43,254 45,471 44,619 -45,215 - 48,085 -48,772 -1,961 -2,614 -4,153 -31,401 -36,047 -31,672 -7,624 - 7,220 -7,810 - 39,025 - 43,267 - 39,482 J 8 4 A<(jiistad from (^nsiis data for (liffc.rencx'.s in timing and coverage,- excludes rnilitafy. Transfers under U.S. military agency sales eontraeUi (ex|>ort,s) minus direct defense expe itures (imports). Payments on foreign assets in U.S. - 109,073 -121,880 -139,551 - 152,696 -115,324 -91,392 - 79,994 -29,404 -39,480 -74,841 -106,212 2 36 Receipts on U.S. assets abroad 14,404 14,483 19,194 18,319 20,546 26,558 28,633 32,907 38,284 37,444 38,410 - 112,492 -2,547 - 8,438 -122,173 -4,390 - 9,798 - 145,081 -5,181 - 8,484 -159,557 - 3,844 -7,613 -126,959 - 6,320 -2,591 4,043 -115,245 -6,749 8,002 - 109,030 - 7,599 - 74,068 - 5,274 17,032 20,484 -96,106 -2,142 448 19,885 -132,618 19,330 2,148 - 166,099 219,926 215,915 223,344 250,208 320,230 362,120 389,307 416,913 440,352 456,823 502,485 Other services, 36 116 Quarterly data are riot seasonally aitytwttxl. Includes transfers of goods and services under U.S. military grant programs, SM, p. 37 far amtinufttion ofttiblr.. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, U.S. claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks decreased $14.9 billion in the third quarter of 1995, in contrast to an increase of $40.0 billion in the second quarter. U.S. liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, decreased $20.0 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $12.2 billion in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF COLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * -100 • SEASONAILY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Foreign assets in the U.S., net [increase/capital inflow ( + )] U.S. assets abroad, net [increase/capiti )) Period Total 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 . ... 1993 1994 1993- I II Ill IV 1994- I II Ill IV 1995- I II HIP U.S. official reserve assets3 5 -36,313 -3,131 -39,889 -3,858 312 - 106,753 9,149 -72,617 - 100,087 -3,912 - 168,744 -25,293 -74,011 -2,158 5,763 -57,881 3,901 -65,875 - 184,589 -1,379 5,346 -125,851 -19,729 -983 822 -40,933 -545 -46,270 -77,657 -673 -59 -36,783 3,537 -5,973 -27,940 -165 2,033 -55,156 -75,343 -5,318 - 100,242 -2,722 -42,852 -1,893 Other U.S. Government assets -5,489 -2,821 -2,022 1,006 2,967 1,259 2,307 2,911 -1,661 -330 -322 467 -281 -197 -318 401 491 -283 -931 -152 -180 136 U.S. private assets -27,694 -33,211 - 105,044 -82,771 -99,141 - 144,710 -74,160 -66,555 -68,115 -182,880 - 130,875 -19,213 -41,474 -45,529 -76,666 -37,125 -10,001 -27,492 -56,258 -69,873 - 97,340 -41,095 Total 113,932 141,183 226,111 242,983 240,265 218,490 122,192 94,241 153,823 248,529 291,365 19,867 51,277 77,928 99,458 80,390 46,526 79,736 84,715 94,841 124,331 105,664 r> (Consists of gold, xjxwiai drawing rights (SDHs), foreign rurrenpies, and the U.S. rvserw |M>sition in the IMF. Foreign official assets3 3,140 -1,119 35,648 45,387 39,758 8,503 33,910 17,389 40,466 72,146 39,409 10,955 17,495 19,386 24,311 10,977 9,162 19,691 -421 22,308 37,836 39,479 Other foreign assets 110,792 142,301 190,463 197,596 200,507 209,987 88,282 76,853 113,358 176,383 251,956 8,912 33,782 58,542 75,147 69,413 37,364 60,045 85,136 72,533 86,495 66,185 Allocations of special drawing rights (SDKs) Statistical discrepancy Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) 21,331 22,950 31,501 -4,028 -13,095 54,094 44,480 -28,936 -26,399 35,985 - 14,269 17,245 13,993 -4,626 9,375 -13,336 -2,567 - 12,082 13,718 19,527 19,178 -23,330 Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy 5,367 154 -6,353 834 5,274 587 -6,641 782 6,183 331 -7,086 U.S. official reserve assets, net r> (unadjusted, end of period) 34,934 43,186 48,511 45,798 47,802 74,609 83,316 77,721 71,323 73,442 74,335 74,378 73,968 75,835 73,442 76,809 75,732 76,532 74,335 86,761 90,063 87,152 Sourws: Department of Common*' (Bumui of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents Pa e TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME. AND SPENDING « Gross Domestic Product Real Gross Domestic Product Implicit Price Deflators for Gross Domestic Product Quantity and Price Indexes for GDP and Percent Changes Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Real Gross Private Domestic Investment Real Fixed Investment by Type Business Investment and Plans 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Employment Cost Index—Private Industry Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY. CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Consumer Installment Credit Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: P Preliminary. r Revised. c Corrected. ... Not available (also, not applicable). NSA not seasonally adjusted. «— 38 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Price $3.00 (single copy) ($3.75 foreign). Subscription price: $33.00 per year; $41.25 for foreign mailing. U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1996 22-711