Full text of Economic Indicators : January 1983
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98th Congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators JANUARY 1983 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1983 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) ROGER W. JEPSEN, Iowa, Chairman LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Vice Chairman SENATE WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) JAMES ABDNOR (South Dakota) STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho) MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia) ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York) LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas) WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland) HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana) PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland) AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California) DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin) JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) MARJORIE S. HOLT (Maryland) DAN LUNGREN (California) OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine) BRUCE R. BARTLETT, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS MARTIN FELDSTEIN, Chairman WILLIAM A. NISKANEN, Member WILLIAM POOLE, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—SlsT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $4.25 a single copy ($5.35 foreign), or by subscription at $25.00 per year ($3.1.25 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to preliminary estimates for the fourth quarter of 1982, gross national product rose $13.1 billion or 1.7 percent, both at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) fell 2.5 percent (annual rate) and the implicit price deflator rose at a 4.3 percent annual rate. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) (RATIO SCALE) 3,200 __—I 3,200 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 3,000 3,000 :z 2,800 2,600 GNP . IN CURRENT DOLLARS_ 2,400 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,200 2,000 2,000 1,800 1,800 1,600 1,600 A- 1,400 1,400 GNP IN 1972 DOLLARS 1,200 1,200 1975 1974 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1972 1973 Gross national product 1981: I II m IV 1982: I II m IV* Gross private domestic investment Exports Imports Total Total National defense 76.7 253.1 26.8 13.8 -4.0 -1.1 13.2 25.2 26.1 16.5 270.4 304.1 339.9 362.1 393.8 431.9 474.4 538.4 596.9 647.1 101.7 102.0 111.0 122.7 129.2 143.4 153.6 168.3 197.2 228.9 257.3 72.8 77.0 83.0 86.0 92.8 100.3 111.8 131.4 153.7 178.5 455.7 475.5 486.0 468.9 31.2 23.7 25.9 23.5 365.4 368.9 367.2 367.9 334.2 345.1 341.3 344.4 578.1 583.2 600.2 626.3 217.0 218.2 230.0 250.5 414.8 431.5 443.3 397.9 31.3 34.9 6.9 -6.9 359.9 365.8 349.5 323.7 328.6 330.9 342.5 330.6 630.1 630.9 651.7 675.7 249.7 244.3 259.0 276.1 1,718.0 1,918.3 2,163.9 2,417.8 2,633.1 2,937.7 3,057.5 2,864.9 2,901.8 2,980.9 3,003.2 1,799.9 1,819.4 1,868.8 1,884.5 2,995.5 3,045.2 3,088.2 3,101.3 1,919.4 1,947.8 1,986.3 2,034.6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. •£!• Federal Net exports 95.4 132.8 128.1 157.1 186.7 219.8 268.1 314.0 341.3 333.2 888.1 976.4 1,084.3 1,204.4 1,346.5 1,507.2 1,667.2 1,843.2 1,972.0 737.1 812.0 Goveniment pureh*ises of goo ds and servi ces Exports arid imports of goods and services 77.5 109.6 146.2 154.9 170.9 182.7 218.7 281.4 339.2 367.3 349.7 195.0 229.8 228.7 206.1 257.9 324.1 386.6 423.0 402.3 471.5 421.9 1,185.9 1,326.4 1,434.2 1,549.2 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982* Personal consumption expenditures 0.7 14.2 13.4 73.1 Nondefense State and local -1 sales 151.4 1,175.7 43.2 50.6 53.3 56.5 65.8 75.2 78.8 168.5 193.1 217.2 232.9 250.4 278.3 306.0 341.2 368.0 389.8 1,307.9 1,420.1 1,556.1 1,706.2 1,895.3 2,137.4 2,403.5 2,643.1 2,917.3 3,078.9 143.1 150.5 154.4 166.9 73.9 67.7 75.7 83.6 361.1 365.0 370.1 375.7 2,852.7 2,877.2 2,949.1 2,989.9 166.2 176.2 182.7 188.9 83.5 68.2 76.3 87.2 380.4 386.6 392.7 399.6 3,031.1 3,061.4 3,083.5 3,139.8 28.5 29.1 33.9 39.7 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS [Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross national product Period 1972 1,246.3 1,231.6 1,298.2 1,369.7 1,438.6 1,479.4 1,474.0 1,502.6 1,475.5 737.1 767.9 762.8 779.4 823.1 864.3 903.2 927.6 930.5 947.6 957.1 1,507.8 1,502.2 1,510.4 1,490.1 1,470.7 1,478.4 1,481.1 1,471.7 1485.9 1,254.3 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982* 1981: I n m IV 1982: I n m IV'. Personal consumption expenditures E5.ports of goo ds Grross private dom estic investnlent Nonresidential fixed 121.0 138.1 135.7 Residential fixed Governm ent purchases of goods and services and services Change m business inventories Net exports Exports Imports -6.7 7.8 13.3 16.0 7.3 -5.0 9.0 -8.5 15.5 27.8 32.2 25.4 22.0 24.0 37.2 50.6 42.0 30.3 77.5 97.3 108.5 103.5 110.1 112.9 126.7 146.2 159.2 158.5 147.5 76.7 81.8 80.7 71.4 84.7 90.9 102.7 109.0 108.6 116.4 117.2 49.6 47.3 42.9 39.9 2.4 12.1 16.5 4.8 48.2 44.2 39.2 36.5 159.3 159.7 157.8 156.9 111.1 115.5 118.7 120.4 38.9 40.1 39.5 41.7 -15.4 4.4 3.4 -17.7 36.9 35.7 27.5 21.1 151.7 154.4 147.5 136.4 114.7 118.7 120.0 115.3 63,8 119.3 125.6 140.3 158.3 169.9 166.1 172.0 165.4 62.3 48.2 42.2 51.2 60.7 62.4 59.1 47.2 44.9 40.0 951.1 944.6 951.4 943.4 169.7 170.1 173.9 174.2 949.1 955.0 956.3 968.0 172.0 166.7 163.4 159.6 10.2 17.2 11.6 0.7 Final sales Federal State and local 101.7 95.9 96.6 97.4 96.8 100.4 100.3 102.1 106.5 110.4 116.1 151.4 157.4 163.6 167.8 168.4 168.8 174.3 176.2 178.1 176.7 175.0 1,175.3 1,237.1 1,234.7 1,238.4 1,290.4 1,356.4 1,422.6 1,472.2 1,479.0 1,493.7 1,484.0 286,4 201.8 107.9 107.0 110.7 116.0 179.0 176.9 175.7 175.3 1,505.4 1,490.1 1,493.9 1,485.3 289.2 285J 291.1 299.0 114.4 110.3 116,2 123.7 174.9 175.0 174.9 175.4 1,486.1 1,482.7 1,477.8 1,489.3 Total 253.1 253.3 260.3 265.2 265.2 269,2 274.6 278.3 £84.6 2811 29L2 286,8 m9 IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1972 = 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Period Gross national product Personal c Misuinption expen iitures Total Durable goods Nondurable goods 100.0 101.7 100.0 108,5 123.4 1972 100.00 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982* 105.75 115.08 125.79 132.34 140.05 150.42 163.42 178.64 195.51 207.23 100.0 105.7 116.4 125.3 131.7 139.3 149.1 162.5 179.2 194.5 206.0 108.2 117.3 123.9 129.2 136.4 145.0 156.3 167.5 174.9 190.01 193.17 197.36 201.55 189.2 192.6 196.4 199.8 203.68 205.98 208.51 210.73 202.2 204.0 207.7 210.2 1981: I n HI IV 1982: I II HI IV" Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Services 100.0 Gross priva te domestic inves ment Exports a ad imports of goods aiid services Nonresidential fixed Exports 100.0 103.8 115.4 132.2 Residential fixed 100.0 109.1 120.3 100.0 112.7 134.8 138.6 146.3 157.2 170.8 186.1 201.3 210.1 131.0 140.7 158.0 178.3 200.5 218.5 233.6 239.3 189.6 193.4 198.6 203.6 194.5 200.7 203.0 206.8 207.4 210.6 215.3 219.8 207.6 211.3 210.7 210.9 132.5 137.2 143.6 153.4 169.9 188.4 202.7 208.9 104.7 113.0 121.6 129.6 139.3 150.0 162.3 178.8 196.3 213.3 163.0 166.2 169.7 171.3 199.3 201.7 204.2 205.6 173.0 174.0 176.1 176.3 206.8 207.1 210.0 211.4 Imports 100.0 Governmen t purchases of goods a fid services Federal 100.0 106.3 114.9 126.0 State and local 100.0 107.0 118.0 129.4 138.3 148.4 149.6 155.3 161.9 172.6 192.5 213.1 231.8 237.1 116.7 164.6 179.6 185.6 205.5 214.1 246.1 289.3 293.1 284.3 133.5 142.8 153.1 164.8 185.2 207.4 221.6 159.7 173.7 191.6 208.2 222.7 229.0 231.7 235.8 239.2 229.3 230.9 232.6 234.5 300.7 298.7 287.7 286.1 201.2 204.0 207.8 216.0 201.7 206.3 210.7 214.3 240.5 238.6 238.8 239.4 237.3 236.8 236.9 237.4 286.4 278.8 285.4 286.7 218.3 221.6 223.0 223.3 217.5 220.9 224.5 227.9 CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gr<)ss national pr aduet Period Current dollars 8.6 10.1 11.8 8.1 8.0 10.9 11.7 12.8 11.7 8.9 11.6 4.1 19.6 5.3 11.4 3.0 -1.0 6.8 5.8 1.7 1971 1972 1973... 1974 1975.... 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982p 1981: I n m IV 1982: I n ffl IV* Constant (1972) dollars 3.4 5.7 5.8 -.6 1.2 5.4 5.5 5.0 2.8 -.4 1.9 -1.8 7.9 1.5 2.2 5.3 -5.1 2.1 .7 -2.5 Implicit price deflator Personal consumption e xpenditures Chain price index Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) 4.2 5.8 8.8 9.3 5.2 5.8 7.4 8.6 9.3 9.4 6.0 10.9 6.8 9.0 8.8 4.9 4.1 6.0 9.1 9.2 5.7 6.1 7.6 8.9 9.0 9.4 6.4 4.8 4.0 6.0 9.4 9.1 5.8 6.3 7.8 9.5 9.9 9.6 6.2 9.3 8.2 9.2 8.4 4.3 4.6 5.0 4.3 5.0 4.6 6.0 5.3 10.0 8.4 8.9 8.5 4.8 4.1 5.9 5.2 5.0 NOTE. — Annual changes are from previous year a id quarterly chan ges are from previous quarter. Implicit price deflator Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars Chain price index 8.1 9.6 10.2 9.4 9.9 11.0 11.1 11.8 11.9 10.6 10.6 7.0 13.0 4.4 11.3 3.4 3.7 4.3 5.8 4.2 -.7 2.2 5.6 5.0 4.5 2.7 .3 1.8 1.0 4.4 -2.7 2.9 -3.3 3.7 5.7 10.1 7.6 5.1 5.8 7.0 9.0 10.3 8.6 5.9 7.6 6.1 8.1 10.1 2.5 2.5 .6 5.0 8.3 7.3 8.2 7.0 5.0 3.5 7.5 4.9 Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) 4.3 3.6 6.1 10.4 7.7 5.3 6.0 7.3 9.3 10.7 9.1 6.0 10.3 7.4 8.0 7.2 5.2 3.6 7.1 5.6 4.2 3.5 6.1 10.4 7.8 5.3 6.2 7.4 9.7 11.2 9.3 5.8 10.9 7.7 7.6 7.1 4.8 3.2 7.3 5.7 Source: Depar tment of Comme ce, Bureau of E 3onomie Analysis NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Current-dollar cc>st and profit per unit of output (dolla rs) 1 Gross d omestic product of aonfinaneial corporate business (billions c f dollars) Period Current dollars 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982*. 1981: I n m IV 1982: I n m 1972 dollars Total cost and profit 2 563.7 609.9 678.0 759.4 599.6 626.8 678.0 0.940 .973 1.000 731.9 818.9 708.2 694.2 745.5 795.8 846.3 Capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment 0.087 .091 .092 .093 .112 .137 .141 .145 .155 .171 .200 .222 .250 0.106 .113 .113 .114 .127 .140 .141 .141 .144 .149 .173 .202 .213 .196 .202 .203 .208 .205 .211 .214 890.0 1,001.3 1,128.4 1,276.2 1,416.8 1,537.7 1,732.3 1,779.3 881.3 1.038 1.156 1.282 1.343 1.418 1.508 1.617 1.787 1.966 ,856.4 2.078 1,683.3 1,715.0 1,763.6 1,767.2 883.0 884.2 887.5 870.4 1.906 1.940 1.987 2.030 .211 .218 .224 .236 1,756.6 1,771.0 1,794.4 858.8 857.9 859.3 2.045 2.064 2.088 .242 .247 .251 876.1 860.3 Indirect business taxes 3 1 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfmancial corporate business in 1972 dollars. 2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. 3 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. 4 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Compensation of employees 0.631 .641 .659 .692 .786 .837 .878 .928 .998 1.094 1.211 1.305 1.389 1.267 1.289 1.315 1.349 1.376 1.388 1.392 Corporate profits with inventory valuation uid capital ccmsumption adjustments Net interest Total 0.028 .029 .028 .031 .042 .044 .040 .040 .044 .050 .061 .071 .085 0.088 .099 .062 .069 .074 .078 .170 .161 .171 .159 .140 .134 .146 .082 .085 .085 .107 .107 .090 .124 .144 .163 .168 .154 .143 .165 .142 Profits tax liability 0.045 .047 .049 .055 .059 .059 .071 .075 .079 .079 .075 .072 .047 .081 .069 .074 .063 .045 .043 .049 Profits after tax 4 0.043 .052 .058 .053 .030 .065 .073 .088 .089 .075 .068 .093 .095 .089 .091 .097 .096 .095 .091 .097 n per hour of all employees (1972 dollars) Compensation per hour of all employees (dollars) 7.115 4.491 4.778 5.052 5.429 5.937 6.507 7.024 7.558 7.450 7.664 7.849 7.555 7.774 8.002 8.144 8.217 8.199 8.202 8.970 8.169 8.311 9.891 10.846 8.328 8.320 8.324 8.273 10.551 10.727 10.947 11.163 8.279 8.334 8.429 11.391 11.564 11.730 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Compensation of employees 1 National income Proprietors' income with inventory viiluation and capital co ttsumption adjust ments Nonfarm Farm 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982* 1981: I n HI IV 1982: I n ffl Profits mdth inventory ^valuation adjustmc nt and withou t capital consiimption adjust ment Inventory valuation adjustment Profits Total 18.7 32.8 26.5 24.6 19.1 19.1 26.3 31.9 19.4 24.0 18.6 58.1 21.0 801.3 877.5 931.4 ,036.3 ,152.1 ,301.1 ,458.1 ,598.6 1,767.6 1,855.9 61.0 62.2 65.4 75.0 84.8 92.2 100.2 96.9 100.7 101.4 22.6 23.5 23.0 23.5 24.8 26.6 27.9 32.9 33.9 34.1 96.6 108.3 94.9 110.5 138.1 167.3 192.4 194.8 181.6 190.6 161.1 94.0 105.6 100.6 125.6 96.7 120.6 151.6 178.5 205.1 209.6 199.4 207.5 166.0 136.7 132.1 166.3 194.7 229.1 252.7 242.4 232.1 175.4 2,293.7 2,324.4 2,387.3 2,404.5 1,718.0 1,750.0 1,789.1 1,813.4 21.6 22.5 27.1 24.6 101.8 101.2 100.4 99.5 34.4 34.0 33.6 33.6 200.3 185.1 193.1 183.9 217.6 202.6 210.3 199.4 2,396.9 2,425.2 2,455,6 1,830.8 1,850.7 1,868.3 1,873.7 17.8 17.4 16.6 22.6 98.6 99.9 101.7 105.5 33.9 34.2 34.6 33.9 157.1 155.4 166.2 167.2 162.2 170.0 718.0 Capital consump- Total 963.6 1,086.2 1,160.7 1,239.4 1,379.2 1,550.5 1,760.3 1,966.7 2,117.1 2,352,5 2,436.5 TV* 1 Corporate profits with inv sntory valuatio n and capital zonsumption adjustments Eental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment Net interest adjustment -11.6 -14.7 -16.2 -24.0 -43.1 -43.0 -24.6 -9.4 2.7 2.7 -1.8 -10.1 -13.5 -11.3 -12.7 -14.8 -17.8 -16.8 -4.9 51.2 60.2 76.1 84.5 87.2 102.5 121.7 153.8 187.7 235.7 265.3 253.1 225.4 233.3 216.5 -35.5 -22.8 -23.0 -17.1 -17.3 -17.5 -17.1 -15.5 217.6 231.6 244.0 249.5 171.6 171.7 180.3 -4.4 -9.4 -10.3 13.4 -10.1 -6.9 -3.8 1.2 258.7 267.5 268.1 267.0 -6.6 -20.0 -40.0 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nondura )le goods Durable goods Period Total personal consumption expenditures 1972 1973 1974 1975 1981: I n HI IV 1982: I n m IV* Total nondurable goods1 41.7 47.1 50.6 53.5 59.1 154.9 172.1 193.7 213.6 230.6 249.8 275.9 311.6 343.7 375.3 397.8 55.4 61.4 64.8 69.6 75.3 82.6 92.4 99.1 104.7 114.6 118.6 1.6 28.6 36.6 40.4 44.0 48.1 51.2 66.6 87.0 96.8 93.9 325.3 355.2 393.2 437.0 485.7 547.4 618.0 693.7 782.5 874.1 966.6 9.3 65.7 72.8 81.8 86.3 93.4 92.7 300.6 333.4 373.4 407.3 441.7 478.8 528.2 600.0 670.4 734.5 762.7 9.6 7.4 7.0 8.5 9.0 9.2 8.2 6.6 6.2 5.8 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.2 Food Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil Services Domestics Imports 976.4 ,084.3 ,204.4 ,346.5 ,507.2 ,667.2 ,843.2 1,972.0 156.8 178.2 200.2 213.4 214.3 234.6 242.7 1,799.9 1,819.4 1,868.8 1,884.5 236.9 230.4 241.2 229.6 102.1 94.2 104.0 93.9 93.1 93.3 93.8 93.3 720.6 729.6 741.3 746.5 368.8 372.1 378.0 382.3 112.3 114.0 115.9 116.0 95.2 96.7 97.7 97.5 842.4 859.4 886.3 908.3 7.2 5.7 6.8 5.2 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 1,919.4 1,947.8 1,986.3 2,034.6 237.9 240.7 240.3 251.7 103.2 103.3 104.3 114.1 91.0 93.2 92.7 94.0 749.1 755.0 768.4 778.3 387.9 395.0 401.3 4.06.8 117.5 118.4 119.1 119.5 95.3 91.3 94.2 94.9 932.4 952.1 977.6 1,004.5 5.8 5.5 5.5 6.1 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.5 Total includes other items not shown separately. Motor vehicles and parts 52.4 57.1 50.4 55.8 72.6 84.8 95.7 96.6 89.7 98.6 106.2 737.1 812.0 888.1 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982p. 1 Total durable goods 1 Retail sal es of new passeng er cars (millions of units) Furniture and household equipment 111.1 123.3 121.5 132.2 25.4 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $15.5 billion (annual rate) in December, following a rise of $9.8 billion in November. Wages and salaries rose $2.4 billion in December, compared with no change in November. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*!RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 2,800 2,800 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 800 800 ,...«"* 600 600 OTHER INCOME .....n«""""" 400 „„...«"** 400 TRANSFER PAYMENTS 200 200 160 160 120 120 i.,1 i i i 1976 1975 1979 1978 1977 1980 1981 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1982 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982" Total personal income Wage and salary ments Proprietor 3' income 3 Other labor Farm l Nonfarm Kental income of4 persons Personal dividend income Personal interest income Transfer pay- ments 5 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance Nonfarm personal income 6 1,265.0 1,391.2 1,540.4 1,732.7 1,951.2 2,160.4 2,415.8 2,569.7 806.4 889.9 983.2 1,106.3 1,237.6 1,356.1 1,493.9 1,560.1 64.5 75.9 89.4 102.5 114.9 127.2 140.4 153.8 24.6 19.1 19.1 26.3 31.9 19.4 24.0 18.6 75.0 84.8 92.2 100.2 96.9 100.7 101.4 23.0 23.5 24.8 26.6 27.9 32.9 33.9 34.1 29.9 36.5 39.6 45.3 50.8 55.9 62.5 67.0 132.5 152.8 179.4 218.7 263.4 329.0 371.8 178.3 194.3 207.9 223.8 250.3 297.2 336.3 374.5 50.4 55.5 61.1 69.8 81.1 88.7 104.9 111.7 1,229.1 1,359.3 1,506.5 1,689.7 1,899.3 2,117.3 2,364.1 2,518.9 65.4 123.2 1981: Dec...., 2,497.6 1,530.5 146.9 22.8 99.5 33.6 65.4 352.1 353.6 106.8 2,444.6 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct r Nov r . Dec" 2,499.1 2,513.8 2,518.6 2,535.5 2,556.2 2,566.3 2,588.3 2,592.0 2,597.2 2,611.5 2,621.3 2,636.8 1,535.7 1,546.6 1,542.6 1,546.6 1,560.4 1,562.9 1,569.5 1,570.3 1,570.1 1,571.5 1,571.5 1,573.9 148.0 149.1 150.2 151.3 152.5 153.6 154.6 155.5 156.5 157.2 157.9 158.7 19.9 17.3 16.3 16.9 17.3 18.0 17.3 16.6 16.0 17.2 19.2 31.5 98.6 98.4 98.8 99.3 100.3 100.2 100.9 101.7 102.5 104.2 105.7 106.7 33.7 33.9 34.0 34.1 34.2 34.3 34.5 34.6 34.7 34.8 34.4 32.5 65.6 65.9 65.9 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.6 67.3 67.7 68.4 68.9 69.3 355.5 359.8 363.8 368.0 372.0 376.0 377.6 378.3 378.8 378.0 377.2 376.4 352.4 353.8 357.5 363.9 364.8 366.9 379.7 380.2 383.3 392.7 398.7 400.3 110.3 110.9 110.6 110.8 111.6 111.7 112.4 112.5 112.4 112.4 112.3 112.4 2,448.6 2,465.5 2,470.8 2,486.8 2,506.9 2,516.0 2,538.5 2,542.8 2,548.5 2,561.5 2,569.2 2,572.2 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workmen's compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 4 With capital consumption adjustment. Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor in< and agricultural net interest. 5 6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable income declined in the fourth quarter of 1982. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) q 2,400 2,400 p 4,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 1982 1974 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Personal income Less: Personal tax and nontax payments COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Equals: Disposable personal income Less: Personal1 outlays Equals: Personal saving Perc apita disposable, personal inc(>me Current dollars 1972 dollars Billions of dol ars 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1,168.6 1,265.0 1,391.2 1,540.4 1,732.7 1,951.2 2,160.4 2,415.8 2,569.7 p 170.2 168.9 196.8 226.4 258.7 301.0 336.3 386.7 397.2 998.3 1,096.1 1,194.4 1,314.0 1,474.0 1,650.2 1,824.1 2,029.1 2,172.5 Per capitai personal consulnption expeiHlitures Current dollars 1972 dollars 85.1 94.3 82.5 78.0 89.4 96.7 106.2 130.2 141.1 4,667 5,075 5,477 5,965 6,621 7,331 8,012 8,827 9,362 4,009 4,051 4,158 4,280 4,441 4,512 4,472 4,538 4,544 Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population (thousands) 2 Per cent Do lars 913.2 1,001.8 1,111.9 1,236.0 1,384.6 1,553.5 1,717.9 1,898.9 2,031.4 Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income 4,521 4,972 5,468 6,048 6,695 7,323 8,018 8,498 3,566 3,609 3,774 3,924 4,057 4,121 4,087 4,123 4,125 -1.7 1.0 2.6 2.9 3.8 1.6 -.9 1.5 .1 8.5 8.6 6.9 5.9 6.1 5.9 5.8 6.4 6.5 213,898 215,981 218,086 220,289 222,629 225,106 227,654 229,872 232,050 2.9 -.3 3.7 .2 5.4 6.1 6.5 7.5 229,053 229,539 230,145 230,751 -2.8 2.2 .3 -1.1 6.6 6.7 6.9 5.8 231,246 231,724 232,320 232,910 4,152 Seas<mally adju sted annual rates 1981: I n m IV 1982: I n m IV".... 2,330.0 2,380.6 2,458.2 2,494.6 371.2 384.2 398.1 393.2 1,958.7 1,996.5 2,060.0 2,101.4 1,852.8 1,874.5 1,925.7 1,942.7 105.9 122.0 134.4 158.6 8,551 8,698 8,951 9,107 4,519 4,516 4,557 4,559 7,858 7,926 8,120 8,167 4,152 4,115 4,134 4,088 2,510.5 2,552.7 2,592.5 2,623.2 393.4 401.2 394.4 399.7 2,117.1 2,151.5 2,198.1 2,223.5 1,977.9 2,007.2 2,046.1 2,094.6 139.1 144.3 152.0 128.9 9,155 9,285 9,461 9,546 4,527 4,552 4,555 4,542 8,300 8,406 8,550 8,735 4,104 4,121 4,116 4,156 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). 2 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the fourth quarter of 1982, gross farm income rose $6.5 billion (annual rate) and net farm income rose $6.2 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 1200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 200 100 100 GROSS FARM INCOME 80 80 60 60 40 40 NET FARM INCOME 20 20 V I I I 1974 J I L 1980 1978 1977 1975 1981 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE I 1982 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income (jross Period Cas h Total l 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982* 1980: I n m IV 1981: I n m IV 1982: I rr n nr IVP Total 101.0 101.9 108.6 127.3 151.3 150.6 166.8 163.7 95.4 96.2 112.5 131.7 139.5 143.5 142.9 148.6 145.2 153.2 155.4 farm incom 3 Net farni income marketing rece ipts Livestock and products V 1 Crops inventory changes 2 Production expenses Current dollars 1967 dollars 3 58.8 68.6 67.8 68.5 69.0 45.8 49.0 48.6 53.7 63.1 71.7 75.0 73.9 3.4 -2.4 1.0 1.1 5.6 -4.3 5.5 -.2 75.8 83.3 90.2 100.6 119.0 130.5 141.6 144.2 25.2 18.7 18.4 26.7 32.4 20.1 25.1 19.5 15.6 11.0 10.2 13.6 14.9 8.2 9.2 6.7 135.3 134.3 14316 144.8 66.7 64.4 69.3 70.8 68.6 69.9 74.3 74.0 -1.4 4.2 -6.0 5.6 125.7 128.7 132.0 135.4 22.9 16.5 21.2 20.0 9.5 6.8 8.5 7.8 161.8 164.7 171.5 168.8 142.5 142.3 146.7 142.5 67.9 69.4 71.0 65.7 74.6 72.9 75.7 76.8 2.5 5.3 7.2 7.0 139.0 141.0 143.2 143.2 22.8 23.7 28.3 25.6 8.6 8.8 10.2 9.1 162.0 163.0 161.6 168.1 143.4 144.4 143.2 140.6 67.4 70.1 70.4 68.1 76.0 74.3 72.8 72.5 -1.0 -.5 .0 .5 143.7 144.2 144.3 144.6 18.3 18.8 17.3 23.5 6.5 6.6 5.9 8.0 88.9 43.1 46.3 47.6 *Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. of farm ope rators from farming 3 Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index (Department of Labor). Source: Department of Agriculture, except as noted. CORPORATE PROFITS In the third quarter of 1982, according to current estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $8.6 billion (annual rate) from their second quarter level and after-tax profits rose $3.1 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320 320 280 240 80 80 40 40 1982 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Pr ofits (before t ax) with inve ntory valuation adjustmeri t 1 Profits after ta X Do mestic indust ries Period Nonfinancial Total 2 Total 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 p 1981: I n m IV 1982: I n HI TV* 1 2 94.0 105.6 96.7 120.6 151.6 178.5 205.1 209.6 199.4 207.5 166.0 217.6 202.6 210.3 199.4 167.2 162.2 170.0 85.3 92.0 80.4 107.6 137.4 163.4 185.4 179.0 169.1 184.6 149.6 193.8 181.7 189.3 173.7 150.3 144.1 153.7 Financial 15.3 15.9 15.0 11.8 17.1 23.1 31.0 30.3 29.2 22.7 22.5 26.8 22.7 20.8 20.4 20.0 22.2 24.2 Manufacturing Whole sale and retail trade 70.0 76.0 40.7 45.5 13.4 13.9 65.4 95.8 120.3 140.3 154.4 148.6 140.0 162.0 127.1 167.0 159.0 168.5 153.3 130.4 121.9 129.5 39.0 52.6 69.2 78.3 86.9 85.6 74.5 86.3 59.8 90.3 88.9 92.2 73.7 57.7 56.6 62.7 12.5 21.3 22.4 26.6 26.9 27.1 24.6 33.4 28.1 33.0 32.1 33.0 35.7 31.9 26.8 27.4 Total 3 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. Profits before tax 3 100.6 125.6 136.7 132.1 166.3 194.7 229.1 252.7 242.4 232.1 175.4 253.1 225.4 • 233.3 216.5 171.6 171.7 180.3 Tax liability Total 41.6 49.0 51.6 50.6 63.8 72.7 83.2 87.6 84.7 81.2 58.8 91.5 79.2 82.4 71.6 56.7 55.3 60.9 58.9 76.6 85.1 81.5 102.5 122.0 145.9 165.1 157.8 150.9 116.6 161.6 146.2 150.8 144.9 115.0 116.3 119.4 Dividends 24.4 27.0 29.9 30.8 37.4 40.8 47.0 52.7 58.1 65.1 70.3 61.5 64.0 66.8 68.1 68.8 69.3 70.5 72.4 Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Undistributed profits 34.5 49.6 55.2 50.7 65.1 81.2 98.9 112.4 99.7 85.8 46.3 100.1 82.2 84.0 76.9 46.1 47.0 48.8 Inventory valuation adjustment -6.6 -20.0 -40.0 -11.6 -14.7 -16.2 -24.0 -43.1 -43.0 -24.6 -9.4 -35.5 -22.8 -23.0 -17.1 4. ^ -9.4 -10.3 -13.4 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to preliminary estimates for the fourth quarter, business fixed investment declined $7.6 billion (annual rate) from its third quarter level and residential investment outlays rose $5.5 billion. There was a $38.5 billion decrease in inventories following a $4.7 billion increase in the third quarter. MILLIONS OF DO .LARS BILLIC)NS OF DOLLARS 550 SEASONA LY ADJUSTED ANNU M 550 RATES cf\r\ s^\^ JCJ-l ^A •x A ^^ GROSS PRIVAT E DOMESTIC INVESTSAENT ^-^""\^ Ann y^ \ *>~**m' /""" +** ^ NONRESIDENT AL ^-" -FIXED INVESTM ENT-^-*^ /*^" •JCrt *'"•«•. 300 250 Ann .~~~*' 250 v 200 RESIDENT IAL FIXED INVES TMENT 150 150 A 100 • •••• CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENT DRIES ,•*«* ^. — — -•-*** 50 100 ** 50 x""* .,..% 0 ,f I 1974 -50 I . 0%im...X I ** I ""***'*»/»*** . I I 1976 1975 N., I I 1977 I I I I 1978 I I 1979 I i i 1980 i 1 i i /\ V *I I I* 0 -50 1982 1981 COUNCIL C)F ECONOMIC ADVISER SOURCE: DEPARTMENT C F COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nonresic ential fixed in vestment . Period domestic investment Total Structures 1972 195.0 121.0 44.1 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 229.8 228.7 143.3 156.6 157.7 174.1 51.0 55.9 55.4 58.8 64.4 78.7 98.3 110.5 129.7 141.7 206.1 257.9 324.1 386.6 423.0 402.3 1979.. 1980 1981 471.5 421.9 1982* 1981: I n m IV 1982: I II Ill IV" 455.7 475.5 486.0 468.9 414.8 431.5 443.3 397.9 205.2 248.9 290.2 309.2 346.1 347.5 76.9 92.3 100.7 102.3 115.3 140.8 170.2 191.9 198.6 216.4 205.8 210.4 214.3 353.0 360.2 119.6 127.0 132.7 139.6 357.0 352.2 344.2 336.6 141.4 143.6 141.3 140.4 215.6 330.0 341.3 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Producers' durable equipment 220.2 220.6 208.6 203.0 196.2 Residential fix ed investment Total Nonfarm structures Farm structures Change iii business inven tories Producers' durable equipment Total Nonfarm 63.8 68.0 57.9 55.3 72.0 95.8 111.2 118.6 103.2 104.9 95.8 61.5 65.6 54.8 52.4 68.8 92.0 107.0 114.0 98.3 99.7 90.1 0.7 .7 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.5 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.2 26.5 14.3 -10.0 20.5 -21.4 9.6 15.2 16.0 10.5 13.9 21.9 25.4 8.6 -5.7 15.0 -21.6 113.6 109.5 101.2 95.5 109.1 104.7 95.6 89.4 1.3 1.6 2.4 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 12.2 24.6 31.8 13.2 10.0 19.3 24.6 6.0 93.4 95.5 94.3 99.8 87.9 89.6 88.7 94.1 2.4 2.8 2.4 2.4 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 -35.6 -16.2 4.7 -38.5 -36.0 -15.0 3.7 -39.0 10.2 18.5 14.1 -6.9 11.8 23.0 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT—NONFARM BUSINESS According to the Commerce Department October-December surveys, nonfarm business spending for new plant and equipment for the year 1982 is expected to be 0.5 percent below 1981 and spending in 1983 is expected to be 1.3 percent below the 1982 level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 400 400 TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT 300 300 200 200 NONMANUFACTURING ..,"""1 100 100 >,."'* 80 .,.""" MANUFACTURING 60 60 40 40 J/ 30 1976 1975 1981 1980 1979 1978 1977 U, U, 1982 30 1983 J/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW, COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Plant and equip ment Period Total Plant V ianufacturin g Equipment Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Trade Total 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 4 1983 4 157.71 171.45 198.08 231.24 270.46 295.63 321.49 319.99 315.69 65.21 71.20 80.31 92.70 105.73 117.55 133.46 92.50 100.25 117.77 138.54 164.73 178.08 188.04 54.92 59.95 69.22 79.72 98.68 115.81 126.79 122.67 119.52 26.33 28.47 34.04 40.43 51.07 58.91 61.84 57.95 57.35 28.59 31.47 35.18 39.29 47.61 56.90 64.95 64.72 62.18 102.79 111.50 128.87 151.52 171.77 179.81 194.70 197.32 196.16 1981: HI IV 328.25 327.83 136.40 136.67 191.85 191.17 130.11 126.91 62.58 60.78 67.53 66.14 1982: I 327.72 323.22 315.79 315.21 139.49 137.95 135.14 188.23 185.28 180.65 128.32 123.77 119.46 120.50 60.84 59.03 57.14 55.80 121.43 123.42 57.90 58.30 1975 n in 4 IV 1983: I 44 n. 316.40 320.00 1 Wholesale and retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and personal, business, and professional services. 2 "Other" consists of construction; social services and membership organizations; and forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services. 10 Starts of plant and Nonmanufaeturing Mining Transportation Public utilities and services 1 Communication and other 2 ment projects, manufacturing 3 9.24 10.21 11.38 13.51 16.86 16.05 16.45 8.89 9.40 10.68 12.35 12.09 12.05 11.80 11.92 19.98 22.37 26.79 29.95 33.96 35.44 38.40 41.62 39.98 46.23 49.30 56.54 68.66 79.26 81.79 86.33 86.42 86.86 26.90 32.02 34.83 36.99 41.06 41.43 40.96 198.13 200.92 17.55 16.81 11.61 13.12 39.55 39.74 87.55 88.33 41.89 42.92 33.33 33.68 67.48 64.74 62.32 64.70 199.40 199.46 196.33 194.71 17.60 16.56 14.63 15.56 11.99 12.32 11.28 11.82 40.12 41.40 43.38 41.66 87.80 88.85 87.31 82.01 41.89 40.33 39.73 43.65 27.73 29.03 25.61 63.54 65.12 194.97 196.58 16.18 17.33 10.63 11.66 40.76 40.30 85.87 85.87 41.53 41.43 6.10 7.44 8.68 3 21.80 23.51 56.51 59.38 77.40 88.16 112.98 123.32 135.19 Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during given period. 4 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late October-December 1982, corrected for biases. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE Seasonally adjusted civilian employment was about unchanged in January and unemployment fell 590,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* *16 Y E A R S OF AGE AND OVERSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted] . Period Unemp oyment Civilian e mployment tional population including resident Armed Forces Civilian employment 1977 1978* 160,689 163,541 92,017 96,048 1979 1980 1981 1982 166,460 169,349 171,775 173,939 98,824 99,303 100,397 99,526 Unemployment 6,991 6,202 6,137 7,637 8,273 10,678 Total labor force including resident Armed Forces 100,665 103,882 106,559 108,544 110,315 111,872 15 weeks and over Labor force participation rate (percent) 2 62.6 63.5 64.0 64.1 64.2 64.3 Nonagn cultural Civilian labor force 99,009 102,251 104,962 106,940 108,670 110,204 Total 92,017 96,048 98,824 99,303 100,397 99,526 Agricultural 3,283 3,387 3,347 3,364 3,368 3,401 Part-time Total for Total economic reasons * 88,734 92,661 95,477 95,938 97,030 96,125 3,369 3,298 3,373 4,064 4,499 5,852 6,137 7,637 8,273 10,678 1,942 1,414 1,241 1,871 2,285 3,485 6,991 6,202 Seas Dnally adjus ted U nadjusted 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Get Nov Dec 172,991 173,153 173,338 173,512 173,691 173,854 174,038 174,200 174,360 174,549 174,718 174,864 97,831 97,946 98,471 98,858 99,957 100,683 101,490 101,177 99,851 99,825 99,379 98,849 10,183 10,378 10,290 9,957 9,957 10,886 11,036 10,710 10,695 10,942 11,476 11,628 111,193 111,532 111,653 111,916 112,553 112,320 112,596 112,810 113,056 112,940 113,222 112,794 109,034 109,364 109,478 109,740 110,378 110,147 110,416 110,614 110,858 110,752 111,042 111,129 99,688 99,695 99,597 99,484 99,994 99,681 99,588 99,683 99,543 99,176 99,136 99,093 3,379 3,367 3,367 3,356 3,446 3,371 3,445 3,429 3,363 3,413 3,466 3,411 96,309 96,328 96,230 96,128 96,548 96,310 96,143 96,254 96,180 95,763 95,670 95,682 5,066 5,489 5,611 5,750 5,731 5,561 5,577 5,820 6,495 6,403 6,411 6,425 9,346 9,669 9,881 10,256 10,384 10,466 10,828 10,931 11,315 11,576 11,906 12,036 2,402 2,750 2,962 3,080 3,267 3,517 3,569 3,637 3,856 4,167 4,524 4,732 64.0 64.1 64.1 64.2 64.5 64.3 64.4 64.5 64.5 64.4 64.5 64.5 1983: 175,021 97,262 12,517 112,215 110,548 99,103 3,412 95,691 6,845 11,446 4,634 64.1 Jan 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc. 2 Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population (both including resident Armed Forces). 'Data beginning 1978 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of revisions in the household survey, which added about 250,000 to labor force and to employment. Note.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1978. Beginning this issue, noninstitutional population, total labor force, and participation rate include resident Armed Forces rather than total Armed Forces. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for all civilian workers was 10.4 percent in January, down from 10.8 percent in December. The new overall unemployment rate, which includes resident Armed Forces in the labor force, was 10.2 percent in January, compared with 10.7 percent in December. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 10 1982 •UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemployment rate ( percent of c ivilian labor :orce in grou P) Period Unemployment rate, all workers 1 By sex and a ge civilian workers Men 20 years and over 6.9 6.0 5.8 7.0 7.5 9.5 7.1 6.1 5.8 7.1 7.6 9.7 5.2 4.3 4.2 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May ........ June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 8.4 8.7 8.9 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.7 9.7 10.1 10.3 10.6 10.7 1983: Jan 10.2 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1 Women 20 years and over Both sexes 16-19 years White Black and other Experienced wage and salary workers Married men, spouse present Women who maintain families Full-time workers Part-time workers Labor force time lost (percent) 2 13.1 14.2 17.3 6.6 5.6 5.5 6.9 7.3 9.3 2.8 2.8 4.2 4.3 6.5 9.4 8.5 8.3 9.2 10.4 11.7 6.6 5.6 5.3 6.9 7.3 9.6 9.9 9.0 8.8 8.8 9.4 10.5 7.6 6.5 6.3 7.9 8.5 11.0 7.6 7.7 7.9 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.7 8.7 9.1 9.3 9.6 9.7 15.5 16.0 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.5 18.8 8.2 8.5 8.7 9.1 9.2 9.2 9.4 9.4 9.8 10.1 10.5 10.7 5.3 5.4 5.6 6.0 6.1 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.2 7.5 7.6 7.8 10.4 10.4 10.8 11.5 11.9 12.1 12.0 11.7 12.4 11.3 12.5 13.2 8.4 8.5 8.9 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.7 10.2 10.5 10.6 10.8 9.7 10.4 10.0 10.8 10.5 10.0 11.2 10.4 10.6 10.3 11.3 11.1 9.9 9.9 10.3 10.4 10.7 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.7 12.0 12.4 12.7 9.1 19.0 10.1 7.1 13.2 10.3 10.6 11.7 7.0 17.8 5.9 6.3 8.8 6.0 5.7 6.4 6.8 8.3 16.4 16.1 17.8 19.6 23.2 6.2 5.2 5.1 6.3 6.7 8.6 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.8 9.9 10.2 10.5 10.7 10.8 7.6 7.7 8.0 8.3 8.3 8.7 8.9 9.0 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.1 7.2 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.2 8.1 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.7 9.0 9.2 21.7 22.3 21.9 22.8 22.9 22.5 23.9 23.8 23.8 24.1 24.2 24.5 10.4 9.6 9.0 22.7 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces. 2 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons a cent of potentially available labor force hours. 12 By selected gro tips By race 13.1 11.9 11.3 3.6 Note.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1978. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In December and January, the percentage of unemployed persons who had been out of work for more than 15 weeks continued to rise, and the percentage out of work for less than 15 weeks fell again. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT /\ 60 JOB LOSERS /[V .y 40 - 30 - REENTRANTS 30 20 20 NEW ENTRANTS JOB LEAVERS 1979 1979 1983 1980 1982 1981 1983 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] jj Period ployment (thousands) Percent distribution of unemplo fment by dura aon 1 Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks 27 weeks and over Percent distribution of unemployment by rea on 1 Job losers Job leavers Reentrants New entrants Sta te progr ams Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) 2 Special unemployment benefit claims (unadjusted) 3 1Weekly ave rage, thousaiids 6,202 6,137 7,637 8,273 10,678 46.2 48.1 43.1 41.7 36.4 31.0 31.7 32.3 30.7 31.0 12.4 10.4 41.7 11.5 13.8 13.6 16.0 8.7 10.7 14.0 16.6 42.9 51.7 51.6 58.7 9,346 9,669 Oct Nov Dec 10,256 10,384 10,466 10,828 10,931 11,315 11,576 11,906 12,036 41.1 39.6 38.7 38.3 37.2 34.3 36.7 36.0 35.1 33.9 32.9 32.9 33.1 31.9 31.3 31.7 31.5 32.3 30.1 30.7 31.1 30.2 29.5 28.3 13.0 15.4 16.2 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.5 16.6 16.0 16.8 18.2 17.4 12.8 13.2 13.7 14.6 15.7 17.4 16.6 16.8 17.8 19.1 19.4 21.3 1983: Jan 11,446 30.8 28.9 16.8 23.5 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June .... July Aug Sept 1 9,881 14.3 13.3 11.4 11.9 11.1 2,359 2,434 3,350 3,048 346 388 488 460 2,645 2,592 3,837 3,410 7.9 29.9 29.4 25.2 25.4 22.3 56.5 54.9 57.2 57.6 57.3 59.0 58.3 58.6 60.7 62.4 61.6 60.6 9.1 9.9 9.0 8.8 8.3 7.9 7.5 7.4 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.9 23.0 23.8 23.0 22.9 23.1 •22.7 22.8 22.2 21.2 19.8 21.3 21.8 11.4 11.5 10.8 10.7 11.2 10.4 11.3 11.9 11.3 11.0 10.4 10.7 3,577 3,582 3,775 3,982 3,972 4,011 3,988 4,136 4,379 4,615 4,635 4,428 563 529 574 573 579 560 539 617 654 659 618 546 4,681 4,723 4,892 4,760 4,387 4,328 4,495 4,398 4,282 4,391 4,635 5,078 59.1 7.4 23.1 10.4 Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding. 2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFB), and railroad (ER) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program. 'Federal supplemental compensation program. 14.1 14.3 11.7 11.2 807 897 708 Note.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1978. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 339,000 in January, after falling in December for the seventh consecutive month. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) 22 _^—B ^^"-r5 VVHOLESALE A ND RETAIL TR ADE \ f==1^—^• NON AGRICULTURE\l ALL * ESTAE LISHAAENTS - - - 18 • .....*»•" SERVICES \ ,.,»»*"* 70 GOVERNAA1 ;NT """ \ 1 SE ?VICE-PRODU CING INDUSTRIE S 60 14 41 1 1 1 1 I I I 1 1 1 - 1 M 1 1 11 1 IK 22 MAN! JFACTURING , ^_ 20 50 pN - ^s 1Q 40 - - i i i I I I i Iil ! 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 A\ 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 f 1 MI 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 | 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 IK 6 GOODS-P RODUCING INDlJSTRIES 30 ....................... 20 -Ill v 1 1 I 11 1 1 11 " 1 1 1 1 1 1 | 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1980 1981 1979 ' 4 \ , 1 IJJiAujJ^L 1982 7 i i i i i I i i i i iiv 1983 ^ , A\ 1 I 1 1 1 I I i 1 1 Y 1979 ~ ClONSTRUCTIO N q lm 1980 -*-«•. MBMMMHBBS ,,,,,1 1981 1Mlll 198? * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR , , , , , 1 M , UK 1983 N COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers; * seasonally adjusted] M Manufacturing nonagriPeriod employment 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982P 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Septr.... Oet r Nov r Dec" 1983: Jan" Total 2 Construction Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Wholesale and retail trade Government Finance, insurance, and real estate Services Federal State and local 12,187 12,117 11,113 4,923 5,136 5,146 5,157 5,058 19,542 20,192 20,310 20,551 20,550 4,724 4,975 5,160 5,301 5,350 16,252 17,112 17,890 18,592 19,000 2,773 2,866 2,772 2,739 12,919 13,174 13,375 13,253 13,050 19,517 19,454 19,319 19,169 19,115 18,930 18,813 18,672 18,572 18,325 18,181 18,129 11,622 11,575 11,490 11,375 11,332 11,203 11,133 10,993 10,900 10,666 10,550 10,523 7,895 7,879 7,829 7,794 7,783 7,727 7,680 7,679 7,672 7,659 7,631 7,606 65,776 65,828 65,854 65,794 65,911 65,845 65,695 65,655 65,734 65,638 65,669 65,560 5,125 5,115 5,100 5,094 5,101 5,078 5,044 5,025 5,031 5,007 4,992 4,984 20,630 20,670 20,655 20,584 20,652 20,595 20,615 20,550 20,492 20,441 20,425 20,306 5,326 5,326 5,336 5,335 5,342 5,352 5,359 5,360 5,367 5,357 5,363 5,373 18,831 18,867 18,904 18,929 18,963 18,988 19,042 19,048 19,084 19,074 19,135 19,141 2,741 2,737 2,736 2,730 2,728 2,739 2,737 2,739 2,731 2,740 2,745 2,761 13,123 13,113 13,123 13,122 13,125 13,093 12,898 12,933 13,029 13,019 13,009 12,995 18,158 10,540 7,618 65,761 4,973 20,549 5,401 19,170 2,751 12,917 4,229 4,463 20,505 21,040 12,274 12,760 4,346 4,176 3,912 20,285 20,173 18,848 90,460 90,459 90,304 90,083 90,166 89,839 89,535 89,312 89,264 88,877 88,750 88,535 24,684 24,631 24,450 24,289 24,255 23,994 23,840 23,657 23,530 23,239 23,081 22,975 3,966 3,974 3,934 3,938 3,988 3,940 3,927 3,899 3,883 3,856 3,854 3,812 88,874 23,113 3,927 'Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial dis- Transportation and public utilities 61,113 63,363 64,748 65,625 65,746 25,585 26,461 25,658 25,481 23,881 14 Total 8,231 8,280 8,098 8,056 7,735 89,823 90,406 91,105 89,628 86,697 Service-p roducing ind ustries Goods- 3rodueing inc ustries ,i T otal 2,753 putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. *Inincludes - - mining, not shown s Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAIi INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average giross hourly earn mgs A.verage weekly hours Period Manufa eturing Total private nonagrieultural l Total 36.5 36.1 36.1 36.0 35.8 35.7 35.3 35.2 34.8 34.4 35.0 34.9 34.9 35.0 34.9 34.9 34.8 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.8 35.2 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982" 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oet r Novr Dee* 1983: Jan* Total private nonagricultural * Overtime 40.0 39.5 40.1 40.3 40.4 40.2 39.7 39.8 38.9 37.6 39.4 39.0 39.0 39.1 39.2 39.2 39.0 38.8 38.8 38.9 38.9 39.7 Manufacturing Adjustc d hourly earnings index2— total private nonagnc ultural Percent ehang e from a year earli< 4 5 Ind ex, 1977 -100 Current dollars ? r 1977 dollars 3 Current dollars 1977 dollars 3.3 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.3 $4.24 4.53 4.86 5.25 5.69 6.16 6.66 7.25 7.67 $4.42 4.83 5.22 5.68 6.17 6.70 7.27 7.99 8.50 80.0 86.7 92.9 100.0 108.1 116.8 127.3 138.9 148.4 98.3 97.6 99.0 100.0 100.5 97.4 93.5 92.6 93.3 8.0 8.4 7.2 7.6 8.1 8.0 9.0 9.1 6.8 2.8 -.7 1.4 1.0 .5 -3.1 4.0 -1.0 .8 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 7.52 7.53 7.54 7.59 7.65 7.67 7.71 7.74 7.72 7.77 7.79 7.83 8.38 8.34 8.37 8.44 8.48 8.52 8.56 8.57 8.56 8.56 8.61 8.62 144.9 145.0 145.4 146.3 147.7 148.1 148.9 149.9 150.1 150.8 151.2 152.1 92.9 92.8 93.3 93.7 93.7 93.1 93.0 93.2 93.2 93.2 93.4 94.1 8.3 7.5 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.6 6.1 6.2 5.7 6.0 .1 .1 .6 .8 .8 .2 .8 .8 1.2 1.2 1.1 2.1 2.3 7.86 8.66 152.7 5.4 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Percent cliange from a year earlier, total private n onagricultural 5 Average gross weekly e?irmngs Period Total private nonagnc ultural l Current dollars 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982* 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct r Novr Dec* 1983: Jan* 1977 dollars 3 Current dollars 1977 dollars Current dollars $190.12 184.16 186.85 189.00 189.31 183.41 172.74 170.13 167.87 $176.80 190.79 209.32 228.90 249.27 269.34 288.62 318.00 330.65 $249.25 266.08 283.73 295.65 318.69 342.99 367.78 398.52 425.41 $119.02 126.45 133.79 142.52 153.64 164.96 176.46 190.95 198.42 6.4 5.7 7.3 7.7 7.8 8.0 6.9 8.5 4.6 __4.1 3.1 1.5 1.2 .2 -3.1 -5.8 -1.5 -1.3 258.69 263.55 263.15 264.89 267.75 267.68 269.08 269.35 268.66 269.62 270.31 272.48 165.93 168.62 168.90 169.69 169.89 168.14 167.97 167.61 166.87 166.53 166.96 168.61 315.09 328.60 326.43 329.16 331.57 333.98 335.55 334.23 332.13 332.13 334.93 335.32 405.50 420.71 420.29 421.77 - 432.75 423.57 430.03 428.46 ^ 420.78 425.07 422.60 434.90 193.05 195.20 195.23 195.89 198.40 198.42 198.74 199.69 200.63 201.61 201.61 203.84 3.7 6.2 4.8 4.5 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.4 4.4 —4.1 -1.1 -1.6 -1.7 -1.2 -1.9 1.4 — 1.4 -.9 — 1.4 1.1 .5 343.80 459.02 204.15 7.0 276.67 iii manufacturing. Current dollar index (or earnings) divic ed by the consumer price index on a 1977 = 100 base. Revised index for urban wage earners and c !erieal workers used be. pnning 1978. Wholesale and retail trade $154.76 163.53 175.45 189.00 203.70 219.91 235.10 255.20 266.92 1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. 2 Adjusted for interindustry employment s (lifts and for overtime 3 16-01+5 0 - 8 3 - 2 Construction Manufacturing 4 Mon thly 5 changes based on i ndexes to two decimal p laces. Bas 3d on unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor , Bureau of Labor Statis tics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output p<3r hour of all pe rsons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Out])Ut Business sector Hours of all 2 pers m s 1 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Compensation per hoiir 3 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real com pensation Unit labor per h our 4 Business sector Implic t price defla tor 5 CO st Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 19'77 = 100; quarterly c .ata seasoilally adjus ted 1969 85.5 86.5 79.0 78.8 92.5 91.1 54.2 54.8 89.6 90.6 63.4 63.4 63.2 63.3 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 86.2 89.2 92.4 94.7 92.5 86.8 89.7 93.0 95.3 92.9 78.4 80.7 86.1 91.8 89.9 78.0 80.3 85.8 91.7 89.8 91.0 90.5 93.2 96.8 97.3 89.8 89.5 92.3 96.2 96.7 58.2 62.0 66.1 71.3 78.0 53.7 62.5 66.7 71.7 78.5 90.8 92.8 95.7 97.3 95.9 91.5 93.5 96.6 97.8 96.4 67.5 69.5 71.5 75.3 84.4 67.6 69.7 71.7 75.3 84.5 66.0 69.0 71.3 75.3 82.4 66.3 69.3 71.3 74.0 81.6 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 94.5 97.6 100.0 100.6 99.6 94.7 97.8 100.0 100.6 99.3 88.2 93.8 100.0 105.5 107.8 87.8 93.7 100.0 105.7 108.0 93.3 96.0 100.0 104.9 108.2 92.7 95.8 100.0 105.0 108.7 85.5 92.9 100.0 108.6 119.1 86.0 93.0 100.0 108.6 118.8 96.3 98.9 100.0 100.9 99.4 96.8 99.0 100.0 100.9 99.2 90.5 95.1 100.0 108.0 119.5 90.8 95.1 100.0 108.0 119.6 90.5 94.7 100.0 107.5 117.2 90.0 94.6 100.0 107.1 116.5 1980 1981 1982 p 98.9 100.7 101.0 98.5 99.9 100.0 106.2 108.9 106.4 106.3 108.6 105.9 107.4 108.2 105.3 108.0 108.7 105.9 131.4 144.1 154.6 130.9 143.6 154.0 96.7 96.0 97.0 96.3 95.7 96.7 132.9 143.1 153.0 133.0 143.8 153.9 128.3 140.4 148.2 128.3 140.8 149.0 100.7 100.7 101.0 100.2 100.4 100.0 100.0 99.1 109.1 109.1 109.6 107.8 109.2 109.0 109.1 107.1 108.3 108.3 108.5 107.5 108.8 109.0 109.1 108.1 140.0 142.5 145.6 148.2 139.5 142.0 145.1 147.7 96.2 96.4 95.7 95.6 96.0 96.0 95.4 95.3 139.0 141.5 144.2 147.9 139.0 141.9 145.1 149.0 136.5 138.8 141.9 144.6 136.5 138.9 142.3 145.5 100.0 100.3 101.2 102.2 99.2 99.4 100.3 100.9 106.3 106.4 106.7 106.0 106.0 106.1 106.3 105.3 106.3 106.1 105.4 103.7 106.8 106.7 106.0 104.3 150.9 153.4 155.7 158.0 150.4 152.7 155.1 157.4 96.5 97.1 96.8 97.5 96.3 96.6 96.4 97.2 150.9 152.9 153.8 154.5 151.6 153.5 154.7 155.9 146.0 147.5 149.1 150.4 146.6 148.1 149.8 151.7 1981: I n m IV 1982: I n m r.... IV'.... Peireent change; quarterly data at seasonall y adjusted annual rates 1969 0.2 -0.3 2.9 2.9 2.6 3.2 7.0 6.5 1.5 1.1 6.7 6.8 4.9 4.7 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 .8 3.6 3.5 2.6 2.4 .3 3.3 3.7 2.4 -2.5 .8 3.0 6.6 6.6 2.0 -1.0 2.9 6.9 6.8 -2.1 1.6 -.5 3.0 3.9 .4 1.3 -.4 3.1 4.3 .5 7.3 6.6 6.5 8.0 9.4 7.0 6.6 6.7 7.6 9.4 1.3 2.2 3.1 1.6 -1.4 1.0 2.2 3.3 1.3 -1.4 6.4 2.9 2.9 5.3 12.1 6.6 3.2 2.9 5.0 12.2 4.5 4.4 3.4 5.5 9.5 4.8 4.5 3.0 3.8 10.2 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 2.2 3.3 2.4 .6 -.9 2.0 3.2 2.2 .6 -1.3 2.0 6.4 6.6 5.5 2.3 2.2 6.7 6.7 5.7 2.2 -4.1 3.0 4.1 4.9 3.2 -4.1 3.4 4.4 5.0 3.5 9.6 8.6 7.7 8.6 9.7 9.6 8.1 7.5 8.6 9.3 .5 2.6 1.2 .9 -1.4 .4 2.2 1.0 .9 -1.7 7.3 5.1 5.1 8.0 10.7 7.5 4.7 5.2 8.0 10.7 9.8 4.7 5.6 7.5 9.0 10.3 5.0 5.7 7.1 8.8 1980 1981 1982 p -.7 1.8 .4 -.9 1.4 .2 -1.5 2.5 -2.3 -1.5 2.2 -2.5 -.7 .7 -2.6 -.7 .7 -2.6 10.4 9.6 7.3 10.2 9.7 7.3 -2.8 -.7 1.1 -2.9 1.1 11.2 7.7 6.9 11.2 8.1 7.1 9.4 9.5 5.5 10.2 9.7 5.9 2.6 2.0 3.4 3.1 2.1 6.8 2.7 7.8 -.5 4.7 -.7 4.6 10.1 9.4 10.4 9.8 2.2 -3.1 2.5 -2.8 7.3 7.2 6.8 6.5 10.0 9.3 8.6 8.9 5.6 .0 1.1 -2.9 4.9 -1.3 -.3 -3.5 7.9 -.1 1.9 -6.4 7.2 -.8 .3 -7.1 2.1 -.1 .8 -3.6 2.2 .5 .6 -3.7 11.7 7.5 9.0 7.4 11.8 7.1 9.0 7.3 .2 .5 -2.6 __.4 .4 .1 -2.6 -.5 5.7 7.5 7.8 10.6 6.6 8.6 9.3 11.2 11.6 6.6 9.3 8.0 12.1 7.1 10.2 9.2 -1.0 1.4 3.6 4.1 .6 .8 3.4 2.7 -5.5 .6 1.1 -2.5 4.2 .6 .7 -3.8 -4.5 -.8 -2.4 -6.4 -4.7 — .1 -2.7 -6.3 7.3 6.9 6.1 6.0 7.7 6.1 6.6 6.0 3.9 2.2 _1.4 3.3 4.3 1.4 -.9 3.3 8.4 5.5 2.4 1.8 7.1 5.2 3.1 3.2 3.8 4.3 4.4 3.5 3.3 4.0 4.9 5.1 1980: HI IY 1981: I n m IV 1982: I n nrp IV .... 1 Output refers to gross domest ic product ori pnating in th B sector in 1972 dollars, 2 Hours of all per >ons in privat e industry en| •aged in the sector, includiiig hours of pr oprietors and unpaid family worke rs. Estimates based primar ly on establis iment data, 3 Wages and sala ties of emplo pees plus emi)loyers' contri butions for S()cial insuranc e and private benefit plans. Also i ncludes an es timate of wa|jes, salaries, ind suppleme ntal payment for the selfemployed. * Hourly compensation divided by the consunner price inde X. 16 5 H Current dollar gross domestic p roduct dividec by constant dollar gross e omestic prodiict. NOTE — Percent ch anges are fro m preceding ] eriod and are based on ori jinal data; th 3y therefore may diffe r slightly froin percent cha nges based ori indexes slursvn here. Sourc y. Departmen of Labor, Biireau of Labo r Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production fell 0.1 percent in December following a 0.7 percent decline in November. The index for December was 6.1 percent below its year earlier level. INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967=100* TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 180 180 (RATIO SCALE) UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION 160 160 UTILITIES 140 140 \ v %—-' 120 120 1978 1979 1980 1981 MINING 1982 100 111 1111 1978 MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION 1979 1980 1981 1982 PERCENT* (RATIO SCALE) 100 MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE 90 140 120 70 1978 * SEASONALLY 1981 1978 1982 1982 ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Seasonally adjusted] To tal Period Index, 1967 = 100 1967 proportion 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982* 1981: Dec 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept r Oet r r Nov Dec" 1 2 Output as percent of capacity. Annual data are averages of the four monthly indexes. Manufacturing Percent change from year earlier 100.00 130.5 138.2 146.1 152.5 147.0 151.0 138.6 143.4 140.7 142.9 141.7 140.2 139.2 138.7 138.8 138.4 137.3 135.8 134.8 134.7 Capacity u tilization rate5, percent 1 Industry proc uetion indexes , 1967 = 100 indu strial produ ction Mining Total 87.95 10.8 5.9 5.7 4.4 -3.6 2.7 -8.2 4.7 -7.1 -5.9 -6.8 -7.7 -8.8 -9.3 -9.8 -9.9 -9.4 -8.9 -7.9 -6.1 Manufa cturing 130.3 138.4 146.8 153.6 146.7 150.4 137.6 142.0 138.5 140.9 140.1 138.7 137.9 137.7 138.1 138.0 137.1 135.0 134.0 133.9 Durable 51.98 122.3 130.0 139.7 146.4 136.7 140.5 124.7 131.3 127.1 129.3 128.2 126.7 126.1 125.5 125.9 124.9 123.5 120.5 119.3 119.3 Utilities Nondurable 35.97 141.8 150.5 156.9 164.0 161.2 164.8 156.1 157.4 155.1 157.8 157.3 156.1 155.0 155.3 155.7 156.9 156.7 156.0 155.2 155.1 6.36 114.2 118.2 124.0 125.5 132.7 142.2 126.1 142.6 144.5 142.4 138.1 134.1 128.9 123.5 120.1 116.9 114.7 116.4 115.9 118.0 5.69 151.7 156.5 161.4 166.0 168.3 169.1 169.0 168.2 171.8 170.4 170.0 171.0 170.9 169.4 167.7 168.5 167.5 167.8 167.1 165.5 Federal Reserve series 79.5 81.9 84.4 85.7 79.1 78.5 69.8 73.1 71.1 72.2 71.6 70.8 70.2 70.0 70.0 69.8 69.2 68.0 67.4 67.3 Commerce series 2 81 83 84 83 78 76 72 72 71 69 Materials (Federal Reserve series) 81.1 82.7 85.6 87.4 80.0 79.9 68.9 72.4 71.4 72.9 71.8 70.5 69.4 68.8 68.5 68.2 67.7 66.7 65.9 65.5 Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted] Pro<3 ucts Intermedia te products Final products Period CConsumer good s Total Total 27.68 131.5 128.9 124.0 137.1 145.3 149.1 150.8 145.4 147.9 142.6 142.0 139.6 141.8 141.5 142.1 143.6 144.8 145.8 144.1 143.4 142.2 141.1 141.4 47.82 124.4 125.1 118.2 127.6 135.9 142.2 147.2 145.3 149.5 141.3 146.3 142.8 144.1 143.3 142.6 142.2 142.1 142.5 141.2 140.0 138.6 137.7 138.1 1967 proportion 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982* 1981: Dec 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept r Oct r Nov r. Dee* Durable goods 7.89 146.2 135.3 121.4 141.9 154.0 159.2 155.8 136.7 140.5 129.4 123.2 120.1 125.9 128.1 130.7 132.6 134.6 137.3 132.9 131.3 126.9 124.9 127.3 Materials Bqui] ment Nondurable goods 19.79 125.6 126.3 125.1 135.2 141.9 145.1 148.8 148.9 150.9 147.8 149.5 147.4 148.1 146.8 146.6 147.9 148.8 149.1 148.6 148.2 148.3 147.6 147.0 Total Total 20.14 114.5 120.0 110.2 114.6 123.0 132.8 142.2 145.2 151.8 139.4 152.1 147.2 147.3 145.9 143.4 140.4 138.4 138.0 137.3 135.2 133.5 133.0 133.6 Business 12.63 134.2 142.4 128.2 135.4 147.8 160.3 171.3 173.2 181.1 157.3 179.0 172.2 171.6 169.0 164.9 159.9 156.7 154.9 153.9 150.5 146.4 144.6 144.1 12.89 137.2 135.3 123.1 137.2 145.1 154.1 160.5 151.9 154.4 143.4 145.9 143.4 146.3 145.2 143.7 142.6 141.9 142.8 144.7 143.7 142.4 141.9 141.0 Construction supplies 6.42 139.8 134.5 116.3 132.6 140.6 151.7 158.0 140.9 141.9 124.4 127.0 124.2 127.5 125.6 123.6 122.2 123.1 124.1 127.1 125.5 123.6 123.2 122.2 Supplementary group: Energy total 39.29 133.9 132.4 115.5 131.7 138.6 148.3 156.4 147.6 151.6 133.8 139.0 137.2 140.4 138.5 136.2 134.3 133.5 133.0 132.8 132.0 130.3 128.9 128.4 12.23 128.3 125.5 125.5 129.1 132.9 135.4 137.9 137.7 137.4 135.7 136.7 139.5 138.9 137.6 136.7 136.5 136.2 136.4 134.8 132.7 134.2 133.0 132.0 [1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted] 1* endurable manufacture s Durable mimufactures Transp artation equip ment Primary metals Period Total 1967 proportion 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 p 1981: Dee 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept r Oct r Nov r Dec " 6.57 126.7 123.1 96.4 109.7 111.1 119.9 121.3 102.3 107.9 75.8 89.6 89.7 88.5 83.0 76.4 75.2 72.8 72.9 72.9 73.2 70.0 67.1 65.9 Iron and steel Fabricated metal products 4.21 122.3 119.8 95.8 104.8 103.8 113.2 113.2 92.4 99.8 79.2 79.6 78.5 73.0 65.1 62.4 58.0 58.1 57.4 56.4 54.1 51.4 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 5.93 124.7 124.2 109.9 123.9 131.0 141.6 148.5 134.1 136.4 114.8 126.1 120.7 121.4 121.1 119.1 115.8 115.0 115.5 114.3 112.3 108.5 107.4 106.5 Nonelectrical machinery 9.15 133.7 140.1 125.1 134.5 143.6 153.6 163.7 162.8 171.2 148.6 167.4 160.9 160.0 157.3 153.7 150.0 147.4 147.1 147.2 144.9 140.5 138.0 135.8 Electrical machinery Total 8.05 143.1 143.8 116.5 134.8 145.4 159.4 175.0 172.8 178.4 169.2 170.7 168.2 172.9 172.6 172.2 170.9 170.8 170.3 169.7 167.0 165.7 164.9 164.5 9.27 118.3 108.7 97.4 111.1 122.2 132.5 135.4 116.9 116.1 104.9 103.7 96.6 102.0 104.4 105.9 110.0 111.6 112.7 107.0 105.3 100.8 100.0 103.7 Motor vehicles and parts 4.50 148.8 128.2 111.1 142.0 161.1 169.9 159.9 119.0 122.3 109.8 100.4 90.4 98.6 105.6 110.7 119.8 124.0 127.2 116.7 113.5 103.0 101.7 108.8 Lumber and products Apparel products 1.64 126.0 116.2 107.6 123.2 131.2 136.3 136.9 119.3 119.1 3.31 117.3 114.3 107.6 125.7 134.2 134.2 134.4 127.0 120.4 104.8 99.2 104.9 103.5 106.2 110.6 112.2 116.9 120.3 119.9 117.2 119.4 114.1 Printing and publishing 4.72 118.2 118.2 113.3 122.5 127.6 131.5 136.9 139.6 144.2 144.3 145.3 145.6 146.4 145.9 144.2 143.8 142.6 143.9 145.3 144.3 142.6 142.6 144.0 Chemicals and products Foods 7.74 154.5 159.4 147.2 170.9 185.7 197.4 211.8 207.1 215.6 8.75 120.9 124.0 123.4 133.0 138.8 142.7 147.5 149.6 152.1 199.8 196.7 201.3 200.3 198.6 193.6 193.2 194.1 195.6 196.4 193.7 192.8 152.8 151.1 151.7 150.8 149.7 150.5 151.0 151.0 150.7 149.0 150.6 NEW CONSTRUCTION Construetio n contracts 2 Private Period Total new construction expenditures Eesi dential Total Commercial and industrial New housing units Total l Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1977 = 100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) I !illions of dollars 1976 1977 1978 1979 151,1 1980 1981 1982^ 173.8 205.6 230.4 230.7 238.2 229.0 112.0 135.7 159.7 181.6 175.7 185.2 178.6 60.5 81.0 93.4 99.0 87.3 86.6 74.3 47.3 65.7 75.8 78.6 63.1 62.7 52.0 19.9 22.5 29.6 39.9 43.8 51.3 53.7j 31.5 32.2 36.7 42.7 44.7 47.4 50.5 39.1 38.2 45.9 48.8 55.1 53.0 50.5 Seasonally adjusted Seasonal ly adjusted annu,al rates 1981: Dec 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Julyr. Aug r Septr Oct r Nov" Dec* 228.8 225.1 222.6 224.6 226.1 228.7 231.6 227.6 228.1 228.1 228.8 235.8 239.0 176.6 175.5 173.0 173.6 175.1 179.9 182.7 178.7 176.6 177.0 177.7 183.8 186.8 75.8 73.7 69.2 70.0 72.3 75.5 75.3 73.4 72.1 71.5 74.0 78.9 83.1 49.4 51.0 49.2 51.0 49.6 51.0 49.8 51.5 52.3 53.1 52.3 54.7 57.1 1 Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. 2 F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971 for floor space. 79.0 100.0 114.0 122.0 107.0 107.0 111.0 53.0 53.3 54.1 55.0 54.3 53.9 56.5 53.9 52.8 53.7 52.7 53.6 52.1 47.7 48.5 49.8 48.6 48.5 50.6 50.9 51.4 51.7 51.8 50.9 51.3 51.6 52.2 49.6 49.6 51.0 51.0 48.8 48.9 48.9 51.4 51.1 51.1 52.0 52.2 115 118 115 105 88 94 111 98 112 117 105 122 131 592 739 977 1,059 904 906 685 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 848 675 781 758 688 620 816 677 733 640 657 602 620 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New prh ate homes New private housing units Period Units started, b} type of structure Total 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982" 1 unit 1,160.4 1,537.5 1,987.1 2,020.3 1,745.1 1,292.2 1,084.2 1,060.6 892.2 1,162.4 1,450.9 1,433.3 1,194.1 852.2 705.4 661.0 2-4 units 64.0 85.9 121.7 125.0 122.0 109.5 91.1 80.7 5 or more units 204.3 289.2 414.4 462.0 429.0 330.5 287.7 319.0 Units authorized 939.2 1,296.2 1,690.0 1,800.5 1,551.8 1,190.6 985.5 992.5 Units completed Homes sold 1,317.2 1,377.2 1,657.1 1,867.5 1,870.8 1,501.6 1,265.7 549 646 819 817 709 545 436 413 1,114 1,063 920 926 962 1,138 939 1,007 1,002 929 1,113 1,049 456 399 376 380 335 395 369 352 379 473 498 563 515 Homes for sale at end of period * 3 313 353 402 414 398 336 272 250 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 2 6.0 5.6 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.0 Seasonal [y adjusted annu al rates 1981: Dec 1982: Jan Feb Mar.. Apr May June July Aug Sept r Oct r Novr Dec* 1 882 885 945 931 882 1,066 908 1,193 1,033 1,129 1,126 1,404 1,222 550 592 568 621 566 631 621 628 645 677 701 883 800 74 258 70 84 67 64 86 83 102 88 92 64 79 86 223 293 243 252 349 204 463 300 360 361 442 336 Seasonally adjusted. 2 Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable with earlier data. 3 New series beginning March 1979. 797 803 792 851 879 944 929 1,062 888 1,003 1,172 1,192 1,291 272 275 274 269 264 259 254 250 248 247 244 246 250 5.0 5.3 5.1 5.3 5.5 NOTE.—Units authorized beginning 1978 relate to 16,000 permit-issuing places; data for 1973-77 are for 14,000 places. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Total and Trade Business sales rose 1 percent in November and inventories fell by $5% billion. According to the advance survey, retail sales fell about \ percent in December following a rise of 2% percent in November. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 600 550 500 450 400 350 - 300 TOTAL BUSINESS SALES 250 * 200 40 I I I I I I.I I ill J I I I I I I I.I II I M i I I III 150 i I i 11 100 1979 1978 1980 1981 1982 1982 1978 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Total biisiness l COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Sales Period Sales 2 Inventories 3 Sales * Inven, • 3 tones Inventory-s ales ratio 4 Ee tail Whol esale Total 2 Durable goods stores Inventories Nondurable goods stores Total Durable goods stores 3 Nondurable goods stores Total business 1 Retail Millions of dollars, seasonally iidjusted 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 177,625 182,230 204,277 229,623 259,046 294,573 321,504 350,622 285,807 288,375 318,544 351,176 397,090 444,132 482,570 519,394 47,748 46,623 50,694 55,987 65,036 76,109 87,931 97,839 56,948 56,697 64,078 72,311 83,891 93,870 104,441 110,549 45,082 49,012 54,781 60,435 67,057 74,529 79,325 86,566 14,118 15,247 18,150 20,724 23,313 25,401 24,716 27,216 30,964 33,765 36,631 39,711 43,744 49,128 54,609 59,350 71,067 71,744 79,273 89,530 102,520 109,228 114,114 125,693 32,861 33,356 37,841 43,135 49,914 53,265 53,747 58,835 38,206 38,388 41,432 46,395 52,606 55,963 60,367 66,858 1.45 1.57 1.48 1.46 1.44 1.43 1.45 1.43 1.48 1.44 1.38 1.40 1.43 1.44 1.41 1.39 1981: Nov Dec 344,943 341,330 521,574 519,394 96,768 95,144 110,173 110,549 86,733 86,572 26,436 26,206 60,297 60,366 125,618 125,693 58,907 58,835 66,711 66,858 1.51 1.52 1.45 1.45 334,579 340,571 342,121 .'... 339,835 349,096 346,126 344,603 339,464 339,470 332,537 335,871 516,256 513,906 513,054 515,074 510,517 512,981 513,387 514,554 515,399 514,224 508,579 94,236 95,010 97,361 95,427 97,427 96,565 93,776 92,343 90,866 89,774 90,915 89,810 110,971 108,823 109,657 112,913 111,701 113,515 113,534 113,101 113,852 113,886 112,695 112,043 85,320 87,418 87,242 88,294 90,841 88,042 89,445 88,502 89,326 90,290 92,613 92,263 25,316 26,696 26,958 27,984 29,416 27,175 27,403 26,668 27,498 27,849 30,050 29,517 60,004 60,722 60,284 60,310 61,425 60,867 62,042 61,834 61,828 62,441 62,563 62,746 124,131 123,395 123,332 123,175 122,367 124,351 124,939 127,151 129,073 128,628 126,587 57,807 56,957 56,803 56,663 55,984 57,346 58,246 60,075 61,628 60,708 59,095 66,324 66,438 66,529 66,512 66,383 67,005 66,693 67,076 67,445 67,920 67,492 1.54 1.51 1.50 1.52 1.46 1.48 1.49 1.52 1.52 1.55 1.51 1.45 1.41 1.41 1.40 1.35 1.41 1.40 1.44 1.44 1.42 1.37 1982: J Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Get r Nov r Dee p The term "business" also includes manufacturing (see page 21). Monthly average for year and total for month. Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. 2 3 20 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS Manufacturers' new and unfilled orders rose in December, while shipments and inventories fell. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 320 280 -INVENTORIES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 200 180 160 —SHIPMENTS 240 140 200 120 100 160 DURABLE GOODS DURABLE GOODS 80 120 NONDURABLE GOODS 100 60 80 NONDURABLE GOODS 40 60 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 200 CT H 40 RATIO* 22 on 1.8 INVENTO RY-SHIPM ENTS RAT 0 - iz ^V **""K-* J^--S\ •Vv^^^ .^ *-\ _ 1.4 40 17 11111i111i1 1 1111111111 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 111 1978 1979 1980 1982 I I I 1 I I l I 1 1 Il i i i i I i i i i i *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE-. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Manilla.cturers' 1981 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS ship merits * Manufa Dturers' inver tones I lanufaeturers ' new ordersi 2 Durabl B goods Period 1982 Durable goods Nondurable goods Durable goods Capital Nondurable goods Total industries, nondefense Nondurable goods Manufacturers' unfilled orders 3 Manufacturers' inventory— shipments ratio 4 Millions of do ilars, seasoilally adjust ed 1976 1977 1978.. 1979 1980 1981 r 1982 p 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Octrr Nov Decp 1 2 3 98,802 113,201 126,953 143,935 1*54,249 166,216 157,043 155,023 158,142 157,517 156,114 160,828 161,519 161,382 158,619 159,278 152,473 152,343 151,421 50,689 59,267 67,848 76,060 77,540 83,416 76,457 75,551 77,976 78,124 77,136 79,518 78,888 79,036 77,248 76,562 72,342 72,708 72,664 48,113 53,934 59,104 67,875 76,708 82,799 80,586 79,472 80,167 79,394 78,978 81,310 82,631 82,346 81,371 82,716 80,131 79,635 78,757 175,193 189,334 210,679 241,034 264,016 283,152 266,688 281,155 281,688 280,065 278,985 276,449 275,115 274,914 274,302 272,474 271,710 269,297 266,688 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales. Book value, end of period. End of period. 112,581 121,737 138,045 160,601 174,674 188,429 177,683 187,054 187,121 186,063 185,916 184,870 184,289 183,798 183,550 182,793 181,843 179,324 177,683 62,612 67,598 72,634 80,433 89,341 94,723 89,005 94,100 94,567 94,002 93,070 91,579 90,826 91,116 90,752 89,681 89,867 89,973 89,005 99,543 115,027 131,664 147,354 155,738 166,015 155,323 154,519 155,984 157,198 154,995 156,791 157,058 158,588 154,380 156,166 149,696 150,362 157,622 51,398 61,076 72,410 79,394 79,060 83,272 74,807 75,061 76,309 77,859 76,194 75,710 74,550 76,446 72,982 73,266 69,598 70,607 78,729 12,799 15,276 19,444 23,203 23,449 24,060 20,714 21,717 21,560 22,174 22,608 20,332 19,278 20,322 18,893 20,273 20,183 20,173 20,583 48,145 182,499 53,951 59,254 67,960 76,678 82,742 80,516 79,458 79,676 79,339 78,803 81,081 82,508 82,142 81,398 82,900 80,098 79,755 78,893 204,880 261,941 303,178 320,977 318,621 297,323 318,114 315,957 315,639 314,521 310,482 306,032 303,235 299,001 295,883 293,107 291,128 297,323 1.69 1.61 1.57 1.57 1.66 1.66 1.76 1.81 1.78 1.78 1.79 1.72 1.70 1.70 1.73 1.71 1.78 1.77 1.76 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In December, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.1 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished consumer foods also rose 0.1 percent, and prices of other finished consumer goods fell 0.1 percent. Prices of capital equipment rose 0.6 percent. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 160 140 120 1982 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Internlediate ma terials Pin shed goods Fi nished go<)ds excluding consumer foo Is Period Total finished goods Consumer foods Consumer gcrods Total Total 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 p 1981: Dec 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug r Sept Oct Nov Dec 1 163.4 170.6 181.7 195.9 217.7 247.0 269.8 280.6 276.3 277.8 277.3 276.9 277.1 276.9 279.7 281.2 282.9 282.6 283.9 285.7 285.9 181.0 180.4 189.9 207.2 226.2 239.5 253.6 259.3 253.0 255.9 257.1 256.8 261.1 262.7 263.9 259.8 260.2 258.9 258.5 258.1 258.3 156.2 166.1 177.7 190.7 213.3 247.8 273.3 285.7 281.9 283.0 282.0 281.6 280.5 279.8 283.0 286.4 288.5 288.4 290.3 292.8 293.0 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. 22 153.1 162.6 174.3 186.7 211.5 250.8 276.5 287.8 284.6 285.6 284.7 283.6 281.7 280.4 284.1 288.2 290.4 290.6 293.0 296.1 295.7 Durable 138.2 144.5 152.8 166.9 183.2 206.2 218.6 226.7 224.7 224.4 223.1 224.3 223.7 224.6 226.6 227.2 228.9 227.1 229.0 230.6 230.8 Nondurable 163.0 174.8 189.3 200.0 231.3 283.9 319.6 333.5 329.3 331.3 330.6 327.8 325.0 322.0 327.1 334.0 336.5 338.1 340.7 345.2 344.5 Capital equipment 162.5 173.4 184.6 199.2 216.5 239.8 264.3 279.6 274.1 275.4 274.3 275.7 276.5 277.5 279.5 280.5 282.5 282.1 282.7 283.5 285.1 Total finished consum- 163.6 169.7 180.7 194.9 217.9 248.9 271.3 280.9 276.9 278.5 278.2 277.3 277.3 276.8 279.8 281.4 283.1 282.7 284.2 286.4 286.2 Total 180.0 189.1 201.5 215.6 242.2 280.3 306.0 310.4 311.1 312.0 311.1 310.1 308.3 308.8 309.6 310.7 310.4 310.8 310.3 311.7 311.8 Foods and feeds l 195.3 185.3 190.5 203.1 226.1 252.6 250.3 239.6 233.2 237.8 238.9 237.4 243.4 247.3 246.9 243.6 241.4 237.4 233.8 233.1 233.4 Cnide maten als Other Total 178.6 189.4 202.3 196.9 202.7 209.2 234.4 274.3 304.6 329.0 319.5 313.6 319.3 317.3 314.7 320.1 327.4 327.0 323.7 321.2 317.0 314.7 317.4 314.6 216.5 244.4 282.3 310.1 315.7 316.9 317.6 316.5 315.5 313.1 313.4 314.3 315.7 315.5 316.2 315.9 317.5 317.6 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Foodstuffs and feedstuffs 191.8 190.2 192.1 216.2 247.9 259.2 257.4 247.8 234.1 244.5 246.1 246.7 255.4 262.5 260.5 253.4 249.8 241.3 236.6 238.9 237.3 Other 206.9 228.5 245.0 272.3 330.0 401.0 482.3 474.0 484.6 480.3 470.6 461.2 459.8 467.8 470.5 475.1 474.9 479.8 482.5 486.1 480.6 CONSUMER PRICES In December, the consumer price index for all urban consumers fell 0.3 percent, seasonally adjusted (0.4 percent, unadjusted). The index was 3.9 percent above its level in December 1981. INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 320 320 UNADJUSTED 300 300 280 280 260 260 240 240 220 220 ALL ITEMS 180 140 120 i i i Ii ii ii I I I I I I I I I II 1974 1975 1977 1976 1981 1978 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1982 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Transportatio n Housing Period All items * Food and beverages Total l NSA Rel, imp.6. 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982, 100.0 161,2 170.5 181.5 195.4 217.4 246.8 272.4 289.1 1981: Dec 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr., May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 281.5 282.5 283.4 283.1 284,3 287.1 290.6 292.2 292.8 293.3 294,1 293.6 292.4 Home financing, taxes, and insurance NSA Home purchase NSA 17.5 172.1 177.4 188,0 206.3 228.5 248.0 267.3 278.2 272.1 274.1 275.8 274.9 275.7 277.8 279.6 279.5 278.8 280.2 280.7 280.9 280.6 46.0 164.5 174.6 186.5 202.8 227,6 263.3 293.5 314,7 305.9 306.7 307.9 306.9 309,5 313.7 316.8 318.4 319.7 319.1 320.3 319.6 317.2 9.6 160.3 168.4 179.5 196.7 223.1 254.3 267.7 281.6 270.5 269.3 270.4 269.2 272.3 279.3 285.6 287.7 287.9 286.8 289.9 290.4 290.9 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981. 3 Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, 4 Estimated series. Finance includes financing, taxes, and insurance. 5 Apparel and upkeep 12.9 201.9 212.8 227.2 257.8 308.9 396.0 472.5 511.4 506.3 506.0 507.2 500.9 508.4 516.2 521.8 524.3 527.3 519.9 514.3 504.8 486.2 motor oil, coolant, etc. l New cars Motor fuel 2 Ener- gy 3 NSA 4.6 142.3 147,6 154.2 159.6 1664 178,4 186.9 191.8 189.4 189.3 190.1 190.9 191.1 191.0 191.2 192.1 192.8 193.2 193.6 193.3 192.6 19.3 150.6 165.5 177.2 185.5 212.0 249.7 280.0 291,5 292.5 291.9 289.9 287.1 282.6 283.8 289.7 293.1 293.9 294.8 296.5 297.4 297.5 6 An experimental measure using a rental equivalence approach for homeownership costs. Effective with data for January 1983, the consumer price index for all urban consumers will incorporate a rental equivalence measure. Total Medical care 3.1 127.6 135.7 142.9 153.8 166.0 179.3 190.2 197.6 196.1 196.0 194.5 194.6 196.0 196.5 197.9 198.8 199.7 200.1 199.3 198.4 199.1 6.0 4.9 170.8 177.9 188.2 196.3 265.6 369.1 410.9 389.4 168.6 184.7 202.4 219.4 239.7 265.9 294.5 328.7 310.5 312.9 315.0 318.1 321.3 324.2 327.1 330.5 333.4 336.3 338.9 342.4 344.7 420.3 413.1 403.6 387.6 361.8 365.1 384.7 392.0 391.7 391.5 395.0 396.2 392.7 11.1 176.6 189.3 207.3 220.4 275.9 361.1 410.0 416.1 414.6 416.4 413.0 406.1 395.7 402.1 418.6 424.5 424.5 424.2 425.0 422.6 419.9 All items less food, energy, and home purchase and finance 4 49.8 150.5 160.8 170.6 180.9 194.1 211.6 231.6 249.3 241.4 242.5 243.4 244.6 246.1 247.0 248.7 250.3 251.3 252.4 254.2 254.7 256.0 All items5 X-l NSA 154.7 163.5 173.9 185.8 203.6 226.4 248.0 263.2 255.8 257.2 258.0 258.4 258.8 260.6 263.2 265.0 265.5 266.8 268.0 268.4 268.6 Relative importance, December 1981. NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Period Ch ange from p receding per od Change from 3 montf s earlier, ann ual rate Change from 6 rnontl s earlier, ann ual rate Consum 3r goods Consum 3r goods Consum zr goods Capital equipment Total finished Excluding foods Foods goods Total finished Excluding foods Foods goods Total Capital equipment finished goqqls Excluding foods Foods Capital equipment Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Chiinge, Dec. to Dec., N SA 18.3 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982". 20.5 ' 13.0 6.6 3.7 6.9 9.2 11.7 7.4 7.5 1.4 2.1 12.8 11.8 7.1 3.5 15.3 10.8 22.6 8.2 6.4 7.3 7.9 8.8 6.7 6.0 6.7 8.5 5.5 2.5 6.9 17.5 14.2 4.4 6.5 7.8 11.4 11.1 13.5 9.2 4.0 9.2 4.0 8.5 3.9 0 lange, moiith to mon h 1981: Dec 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug r Septr. Oct Nov r Dec 0.3 .5 -.2 1.1 .5 -.1 1.7 .6 .5 — .1 .1 _.l 1.0 .5 .6 — .4 -.7 .5 1.3 1.4 .8 .1 .8 1.1 .1 -1.6 .2 -.5 -.2 -.2 .1 — .1 .5 .6 .1 0.6 .5 -.4 .5 .3 .4 .7 .4 .7 -.1 .2 .3 .6 0.3 .4 -.3 -0.1 5.5 5.4 2.6 .9 1.4 6.3 6.1 8.4 9.0 -1.0 -.6 4.1 6.1 9.0 4.2 3.9 4.0 4.8 9.7 7.4 2.7 2.4 1.6 4.7 5.6 5.9 7.4 3.8 3.2 1.4 4.3 7.8 6.1 1.3 -3.9 -1.4 5.4 -5.9 11.5 -2.0 .7 9.6 3.8 15.0 9.5 6.8 8.1 7.2 -7.4 2.0 -3.2 -.9 4.5 -1.2 -.5 .2 1.0 4.8 7.6 8.8 3.1 2.4 1.6 4.8 3.9 3.2 2.1 1.0 2.5 2.5 4.1 4.2 5.0 6.5 4.5 -2.0 -3.5 -4.2 5.5 6.0 5.0 3.1 .2 -2.4 — .4 1.8 4.0 5.0 8.2 11.5 8.3 7.7 7.5 5.2 6.0 4.5 3.7 4.0 3.7 6.1 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.0 7.1 6.5 5.5 4.2 3.3 3.0 3,5 3.6 4.0 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.5 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Tr ansportation Housing Addendum: All items , percent chaiige (annual i ate) Home Period All items financ- Food l bever- Total 1 Home purchase ing, taxes, and insurance NSA NSA Apparel and upkeep Total J New cars Motor fuel 2 Medical care Ener- gy 3 All items less food, energy, and home purchase and finance 4 All items X-l 5 From 3 months earlier From 6 months earlier From year earlier NSA NSA Chan ge, Dec amber to Decem 3er, NSJI 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 7.0 4.8 6.8 9.0 13.3 12.4 8.9 3.9 6.2 .8 7.6 11.6 10.0 10.1 4.3 3.2 7.5 5.4 7.6 9.9 15.2 13.7 10.2 3.6 10.0 4.3 8.4 11.2 15.8 11.4 1.2 7.5 7.6 1.6 11.2 14.7 27.5 23.3 17.9 -4.0 2.3 4.5 4.2 3.2 5.5 6.8 3.6 1.6 9.8 8.8 4.3 7.7 18.2 14.7 11.0 1.7 7.3 4.8 7.2 6.2 7.4 7.5 6.8 1.6 11.0 9.9 11.6 2.6 4.9 8.5 10.1 6.9 7.2 8.0 52.2 18.9 10.1 10.0 12.5 11.0 37.4 18.1 11.9 0.7 .8 .7 1.0 1.0 .9 .9 1.0 .9 .9 .8 1.0 .7 0.1 .4 .8 9.4 -6.5 8.8 8.8 1.3 6.3 6.8 5.5 6.9 7.5 9.9 9.4 6.0 6.6 5.1 6.3 7.9 9.1 5.8 6.5 7.7 10.8 10.8 11.3 13.5 10.4 8.5 5.0 6.1 Chang e, montli to mon th 1981: Dec 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 0.4 .3 .2 -.3 .2 1.0 1.0 .6 .3 .2 .5 .1 -.3 0.1 .7 .6 -.3 .3 .8 .6 -.0 -.3 .5 .2 .1 -.1 0.4 .3 .4 -.3 .8 1.4 1.0 .5 .4 0.1 -.4 .4 — .4 0.1 -.1 .2 -1.2 1.2 2.6 2.3 .7 .1 1.5 1.5 1.1 .5 .6 •-.2 — .4 .4 -.2 -.8 1.1 .2 .2 — 1.4 — 1.1 -1.8 -3.7 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981. 3 Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, 4 Estimated series. Finance includes financing, taxes, and insurance. 5 0.1 -.1 .4 .4 .1 t .1 .5 .4 .2 .2 -.2 — .4 0.6 -.2 .7 -1.0 1.6 .4 2.1 1.2 .3 .3 .6 .3 .0 motor oil, coolant, etc. An experimental measure using a rental equivalence approach for homownership costs. Effective with data for January 1983, the consumer price index for all urban consumers will incorporate a rental equivalence measure. 24 0.8 0.5 -.1 -1.7 2.3 .8 .1 -4.0 .7 6.7 .3 .9 5.4 .7 .5 1.9 .5 — .1 — .1 .2 -.4 .9 -.5 .3 .4 -.9 -1.7 2.6 1.6 4.1 1.4 0 i .2 .6 -.6 0.7 .5 .4 .5 .6 .4 .7 .6 .4 .4 .7 .2 .5 0.5 .4 .1 .2 -.2 .6 1.0 .8 .3 .5 .6 .4 .3 5.4 4.8 3.7 1.0 .8 3.7 9.3 10.8 7.9 4.2 3.8 2.9 1,1 9.1 7.2 6.0 3.2 2.8 3.7 5.1 5.7 5.8 6.7 7.2 5.4 2.6 8.9 8.4 7.7 6.8 6.6 6.7 7.1 6.5 5.9 5.0 5.1 4.6 3.9 NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Data beginning January 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers rose 0.8 percent in January and prices paid by farmers rose 0.6 percent in the month ended January 15. INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SCALE) 60 I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i n i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i ) i I i i i i i I i i i i i I 60 RATIO -i/ RATIO i/ 60 1975 1976 1983 1977 ]/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1977=100] Pri 3es Period 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: Livestock and products Crops 100 115 132 134 139 133 105 102 100 105 116 125 134 121 98 101 100 124 147 144 143 144 Dec 132 133 133 135 139 137 137 133 135 128 128 127 126 124 121 123 126 125 125 117 124 114 117 114 Jan 128 113 101 102 r Jan r Febr Mar r . Aprr Mayr June July r Augr Sept r Oetr Novr 1983: All farm products r rices paid by farmer s received by farm ers 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices and wage rates. All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates 1 Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates Production items Ratio 2 108 123 138 150 156 95 100 109 125 139 151 154 91 97 100 108 125 138 148 149 113 107 100 106 107 97 93 85 137 142 145 147 151 149 148 147 146 142 140 139 154 154 155 155 156 156 157 157 157 156 156 156 153 153 154 154 155 155 155 155 154 153 154 153 147 148 149 149 150 151 151 150 149 148 149 148 86 86 86 87 89 88 87 85 86 82 82 81 142 157 156 150 82 89 95 100 89 NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1977=100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS In December, growth slowed in Ml and the broader aggregates. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS'(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 400 400 2pp 200 1982 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE!SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period 1975: 1976: 1977: 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: 1982: 1981: 1982: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec p . Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May r. June r July Aug r Sept r Oet r Nov r Dec p 1 M2 M3 L Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OCD) l Ml plus overnight KPs and Eurodollars, MMMF balances (general purpose and broker /dealer), and savings and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, term RPs, and institution-only MMMF M3 plus other liquid assets 291.0 310.4 1,026.9 1,171.2 335.5 363.2 389.0 414.5 440.9 478.5 440.9 448.6 447.3 448.3 452.4 451.5 451.4 451.3 455.2 460.5 468.4 475.0 478.5 1,297.7 1,403.9 1,518.9 1,656.2 1,822.7 1,999.7 1,822.7 1,841.3 1,848.1 1,865.3 1,880.9 1,897.7 1,908.2 1,923.8 1,946.8 1,955.0 1,968.1 1,987.1 1,999.7 Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions. Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at an annual rate. 2 26 Percent (change from ^ear or 6 rr onths earlier 2 Ml 1,166.2 1,305.0 1,464.6 1,629.0 1,779.4 1,963.1 2,188.1 2,404.3 2,188.1 2,204.3 2,215.1 2,235.9 2,258.3 2,279.5 2,296.2 2,320.6 2,356.4 2,364.2 2,382.1 2,401.1 2,404.3 1,376.6 1,531.4 1,724.3 1,938.9 2,153.9 2,370.4 2,642.8 2,642.8 2,667.9 2,690.5 2,717.2 2,744.2 2,774.3 2,799.5 2,832.0 2,858.3 2,866.2 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. M2 Ml 4.9 6.7 8.1 8.3 7.1 6.6 6.4 8.5 5.9 9.1 7.7 8.1 9.2 7.0 4.8 1.2 3.6 5.5 7.2 10.7 12.4 12.7 14.1 10.8 8.2 8.2 9.0 10.1 9.7 9.6 10.2 8.7 10.0 10.5 9.9 9.6 9.2 11.0 9.8 9.5 9.6 9.8 M3 9.6 11.9 12.2 11.2 9.2 10.3 11.5 9.9 10.4 9.9 8.6 9.4 10.2 9.9 10.1 10.8 13.2 11.8 11.3 11.0 9.6 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Period Currency Demand deposits l Other checkable deposits (OCD) Money market mutua Ifund bala nces Overnight repurchase agreements (RPs), net, plus overnight Eurodollars General purpose and broker/ dealer NSA NSA Dec: 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 p 73.8 80.6 Institution only Savings deposits Small denomination time deposits 2 NSA 8.4 16.9 26.9 77.0 101.3 7.5 13.7 18.8 24.1 26.3 35.0 38.1 45.6 3.2 2.8 2.9 7.1 34.4 61.9 151.2 177.5 0.4 .6 .9 3.1 9.3 13.9 33.7 43.1 387.7 451.7 490.4 479.9 421.7 398.9 343.6 3 400.4 340.9 396.5 454.1 533.9 652.6 751.7 854.7 904.7 236.4 77.0 38.1 151.2 33.7 • 343.6 239.3 234.5 233.0 233.0 232.7 231.0 230.6 231.1 232.6 236.2 238.3 240.3 81.1 83.8 85.8 88.6 87.0 87.5 87.4 90.2 93.0 96.5 100.7 101.3 43.2 42.9 43.0 40.4 42.8 43.0 43.4 44.5 43.3 45.9 47.2 45.6 154.9 156.1 159.4 162.1 164.6 168.9 171.7 180.6 182.5 184.1 186.6 177.5 32.5 30.5 31.5 31.5 32.8 33.7 36.7 43.1 43.9 44.8 45.3 43.1 348.8 348.6 350.7 350.5 350.9 349.9 344.0 342.0 342.4 352.6 362.3 3 400.4 214.1 88.6 97.4 106.1 116.2 123.1 132.7 224.4 239.6 253.9 262.2 267.2 236.4 240.3 1981: Dec 123.1 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr .-. May June July Aug r Sept r Oct r Nov r Dec" 123.8 124.6 125.1 126.3 127.4 128.4 128.8 129.5 130.5 131.2 131.6 132.7 0.9 2.7 4.2 Large denomination time deposits 2 1 Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions. Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. 3 Includes $42.8 billion in money market deposit accounts. NOTE.—See p. 26 for overall measures. Term repurchase agreements (RPs) Term Eurodollars (net) NSA NSA cnv ings bonds Shortterm Treasury securities Bankers' acceptances Com mercial paper 8.4 8.8 11.8 21.4 26.5 31.8 39.7 48.0 51.7 62.9 79.2 97.0 98.1 104.2 194.6 221.8 257.9 300.3 332.7 9.0 15.0 21.0 27.5 30.2 37.8 35.4 33.6 9.7 13.1 18.7 29.9 42.9 48.4 66.7 80.3 79.6 72.3 67.7 81.1 89.9 99.3 128.5 156.7 176.5 854.7 300.3 35.4 66.7 67.7 176.5 39.7 104.2 852.3 859.4 869.9 881.6 894.1 900.9 919.7 930.6 932.6 923.8 922.9 904.7 302.6 308.0 312.6 317.2 321.6 328.3 335.8 339.6 339.3 342.5 340.4 332.7 32.5 32.5 31.5 34.2 32.6 31.2 29.3 32.1 30.5 31.3 33.5 33.6 69.9 73.8 74.4 78.5 83.3 84.8 84.3 81.6 81.5 67.8 67.8 67.7 67.7 67.7 67.8 67.7 67.6 67.5 180.3 186.4 191.0 191.7 191.9 194.8 199.9 200.5 201.2 40.2 39.1 37.9 38.3 39.9 40.3 40.8 40.2 40.7 105.5 108.4 110.3 109.7 112.1 115.7 118.7 112.0 111.1 129.8 118.2 145.2 67.2 71.7 76.4 77.1 Travelers checks are a component of money stock but are not shown here. NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. 2 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Total 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Automobile Revolving Total l Revolving 2,976 60,437 69,245 79,186 82,977 84,809 91,117 1,340 2,170 6,248 9,035 8,628 1,415 4,697 3,226 26,689 7,284 11,533 -33 68 59 26,445 27,075 26,472 27,509 27,798 28,388 26,944 27,513 27,176 28,386 29,087 28,270 7,595 7,339 7,211 7,638 7,470 7,527 7,271 7,514 7,041 8,048 8,513 8,315 11,266 11,885 11,836 11,917 11,991 12,854 11,939 12,354 12,254 12,232 12,382 11,804 443 75 990 1,175 1,399 1,349 570 66 1,092 -324 2,523 2,192 -121 -56 -28 233 959 655 61 -402 505 -78 1,816 1,303 -196 -155 307 499 537 507 612 143 210 108 107 532 26,656 7,352 11,592 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 26,888 27,150 27,462 28,684 29,197 29,737 27,514 27,579 28,268 28,062 31,610 30,462 7,474 7,283 7,183 7,871 8,429 8,182 7,332 7,112 7,546 7,970 10,329 9,618 11,070 11,730 12,143 12,416 12,528 13,361 12,551 12,497 12,464 12,340 12,489 12,336 Automobile 10,465 15,204 18,736 14,715 477 9,595 4,075 Dec Includes "mobile home" and "other," not shown separately. l 7,408 306,076 336,341 340,161 1 Total 21,561 35,462 43,079 38,381 1,448 19,894 9,999 75,641 87,981 93,901 83,454 94,404 95,192 1981: Revolving 35,616 189,179 222,138 254,589 286,396 304,628 316,447 330,162 52,420 63,743 Automobile 41,764 81,348 96,090 111,546 126,653 135,438 144,432 36,956 43,934 87,596 105,125 120,174 128,068 140,135 147,658 180,083 210,740 257,600 297,668 324,777 Net charige in amount ou tstanding Insta Iment credit liquidated Insta [Iment credit ext€ nded l 172,675 49,444 53,278 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES In December, commercial and industrial loans were about unchanged from their November level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 60 40 40 1982 1974 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, AVERAGES OF WEDNESDAY FIGURES SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Depo sitory institutic ns 3 Al I commercial ban.k s 1 Period Loans a nd leases Total loans and investments Eeserves adjust ed Investrnents Commercial and industrial loans U.S. Treasury securities 190.9 210.9 245.9 100.8 99.8 93.8 1,135.9 1,239.6 1,316.3 1,412.4 555.0 632.5 747.0 849.9 915.1 973.9 1,042.3 291.2 326.8 358.0 392.4 94.5 110.0 111.0 130.9 148.8 159.3 172.8 191.5 214.4 231.4 239.2 1981: Dec 1,316.3 973.9 358.0 111.0 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July. Aug Sept Oct Nov r Decp 1,320.0 1,332.4 1,342.5 1,352.5 1,362.0 1,368.8 1,376.1 1,383.1 1,389.4 1,397.5 1,398.5 1,412.4 974.5 985.2 995.0 1,002.0 1,010.8 1,017.1 1,023.7 1,028.3 1,033.5 1,038.1 1,036.4 1,042.3 360.3 365.5 370.0 373.1 378.9 383.4 386.7 387.9 392.5 394.8 392.0 392.4 114.1 115.1 114.4 116.6 116.3 115.8 116.5 117.8 118.2 122.3 126.4 130.9 1976: 1977: 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: 1982: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dee* 804.6 891.5 1,013.5 Total 2 1983: Jan p 1 2 3 Data are averages of Wednesday figures. Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States. Data are averages of daily figures. 28 Born)wings (millions of dollars, unad usted) for changes m re serve requirernents Other securities Total Nonborrowed Required Total Seasonal 29.86 29.81 31.17 32.82 34.26 36.46 37.99 40.89 30.60 31.95 32.79 34.77 37.35 40.26 29.59 30.98 32.59 33.93 35.95 37.67 40.39 62 558 874 1,473 1,617 636 697 54 134 82 116 53 33 231.4 37.99 37.35 37.67 636 53 231.5 232.0 233.1 234.0 234.9 235.9 235.9 237.1 237.6 237.2 235.8 239.2 38.71 38.26 38.36 38.43 38.50 38.58 38.52 38.80 39.57 39.88 40.46 40.89 37.20 36.47 36.80 36.87 37.39 37.37 37.83 38.29 38.63 39.40 39.84 40.26 38.30 37.96 37.99 38.16 38.15 38.27 38.21 38.49 39.18 39.47 40.06 40.39 1,526 1,713 1,611 1,581 1,105 1,205 669 510 976 455 579 697 75 132 174 167 237 239 225 119 102 86 47 33 40.95 40.41 40.42 12 NOTE.—Beginning Dec. 1981, banks loans and investments and reserves aggregates have been reduced because of shifts from U.S. banking offices to International Banking Facilities (IBFs). Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses External Period Total 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 r 1981: lrr II 151.6 192.4 190.1 156.9 210.8 252.2 315.4 346.3 333.7 352.2 333.6 381.2 348.9 345.0 297.7 348.2 371.7 in r IY 1982: I r II r r in . Internal Ci edit market fu nds l 85.0 91.7 85.6 119.7 134.2 157.4 175.7 188.8 197.5 231.1 222.4 225.4 235.2 241.4 232.6 234.3 240.3 Total 66.6 100.7 104.4 37.2 76.6 94.9 139.7 157.5 136.2 121.1 111.3 155.8 113.7 103.6 65.0 113.9 131.3 Total Loans and short-term paper Securities and mortgages 43.4 56.7 69.9 30.7 54.5 70.4 79.3 91.2 95.7 92.6 68.7 119.1 100.2 82.5 110.2 93.3 98.0 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained abroad. 2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. Other Total 2 26.4 20.7 26.3 16.9 36.0 43.6 23.2 44.0 34.5 38.7 38.2 33.9 31.9 25.9 57.5 23.1 41.6 34.8 3.2 12.7 30.6 33.1 59.3 8.0 16.3 36.5 47.4 65.3 38.2 69.6 27.1 84.3 97.0 69.9 79.7 60.3 38.7 6.5 22.1 24.5 60.4 66.3 40.6 28.5 42.6 36.7 13.5 21.1 -45.2 20.5 33.3 149.1 191.9 190.1 150.9 201.8 237.6 294.2 347.1 317.9 314.8 318.2 352.2 304.6 284.0 225.3 304.9 328.5 Capital expenditures 3 99.0 121.5 137.9 109.7 148.3 175.1 202.2 219.8 220.5 260.9 233.5 260.0 284.6 265.5 241.9 248.5 264.2 Increase in financial assets 50.1 70.5 52.2 41.2 53.5 62.5 92.0 127.3 97.4 53.9 '84.7 92.2 20.0 18.5 -16.6 56.4 64.3 Discrepancy (sources less uses) 2.4 .5 .0 6.0 9.0 14.7 21.2 __.8 15.8 37.4 15.4 29.0 44.2 61.0 72.3 43.3 43.1 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars, except as noted] C urrent liabilitif s Curren assets End of period SIC series: 2 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 FTC-FRB series: 3 1974 1975 1976... 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981: I II Ill IV 1982: I II 1 Total Cash US Government securities Notes and accounts receivable Total 492.3 529.6 599.3 697.8 790.7 50.2 53.3 59.0 66.3 71.1 7.7 11.0 10.6 12.8 12.3 206.1 221.1 248.2 288.5 322.1 200.4 225.7 263.9 313.6 35.0 43.8 55.8 66.4 71.7 304.9 326.0 375.6 450.9 530.4 735.4 759.0 827.4 912.7 1,043.7 1,218.2 1,333.5 1,427.1 1,374.5 1,388.3 1,410.9 1,427.1 1,423.6 1,419.4 73.2 82.1 88.2 97.2 105.5 118.0 127.1 131.7 126.6 126.2 125.1 131.7 121.3 123.4 11.1 19.0 23.5 18.2 17.3 17.0 19.3 17.9 19.2 19.9 18.0 17.9 17.1 17.4 265.8 272.1 292.9 330.3 388.0 461.1 510.6 536.7 528.0 533.1 542.4 536.7 537.8 534.4 319.5 315.9 342.5 376.9 431.6 505.5 543.7 587.1 560.2 565.3 577.0 587.1 593.8 589.2 65.9 69.9 80.3 90.1 101.3 116.7 132.7 153.6 140.5 143.8 148.3 153.6 153.6 155.0 453.4 451.6 495.1 557.1 669.3 807.8 890.9 980.0 923.2 931.5 967.2 980.0 985.7 982.6 Total current assets divided by total current liabilities. Based on data from Statistics of Income, Department of the Treasury. Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations, Federal Trade Commission. 2 3 Other current assets Inventories 193.3 Notes and accounts payable Other current liabilities Net working capital ratio * 340.3 402.3 93.6 105.5 92.7 110.7 128.1 187.4 203.6 223.7 246.9 260.3 1.615 1.625 1.595 1.548 1.491 269.8 264.2 282.1 317.6 382.9 461.2 515.2 562.9 520.3 525.9 549.5 562.9 555.0 554.9 183.6 187.4 213.0 239.6 286.4 346.6 375.7 417.1 402.9 405.5 417.7 417.1 430.8 427.8 282.0 307.4 332.4 355.5 374.4 410.5 442.6 447.1 451.3 456.8 443.7 447.1 437.9 436.8 1.622 1.681 1.671 1.638 1.559 1.508 1.497 1.456 1.489 1.490 1.459 1.456 1.444 1.445 211.3 220.5 282.9 NOTE.—SEC series not available after 1974. See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details regarding the series. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Trade Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS On average, interest rates fell in January. PERCENT PER ANNUM CORPORATE Aaa BONDS (MOODY'S) 1982 1975 SOURCE; SEE TABLE BELOW 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] U.S.I nreasury security yields Period 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec r 1983: Jan Week ended: 1982: Dec 18 25 1983: Jan 1 8 15......... 22 29 Feb 5 12 1 3 -month bills l Constant nnatalities 2 3-year 10-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor's) 3 5.265 7.221 10.041 11.506 14.077 10.686 12.412 13.780 12.493 12.821 12.148 12.108 11.914 9.006 8.196 7.750 8.042 8.013 8.29 9.72 11.55 14.44 12.92 14.64 14.73 14.13 14.18 13.77 14.48 14.00 12.62 12.03 10.62 9.98 9.88 7.42 8.41 9.44 11.46 13.91 13.00 14.59 14.43 13.86 13.87 13.62 14.30 13.95 13.06 12.34 10.91 10.55 10.54 5.90 6.39 8.51 11.23 11.57 13.16 12.81 12.72 12.45 11.99 12.42 12.11 11.12 10.61 9.59 9.97 9.91 9.63 11.94 14.17 13.79 15.18 15.27 14.58 14.46 14.26 14.81 14.61 13.71 12.94 12.12 11.68 11.83 7.810 9.64 10.46 9.45 7.995 7.857 7.975 7.896 7.671 7.619 8.055 8.122 8.252 9.84 9.88 9.79 9.65 9.45 9.55 9.87 10.00 10.56 10.56 10.43 10.36 10.32 10.41 10.68 10.88 10.02 9.91 9.49 9.42 9.28 9.39 9.69 9.63 6.69 5.56 Rate on new issues within period; bank-discount basis. Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Prior to November 1, 1979, data are for 4-6 months paper. 5 Average effective rate for year; high and low rate for month and week. 2 30 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) Prime commercial paper, 6 months 4 4 Discount rate (N.Y. F.E. Bank) 5 Prime rate charged by banks 5 New-home mortgage yields (FHLBB) 6 11.89 13.35 14.27 13.47 13.64 13.02 13.79 13.00 10.80 10.86 9.21 8.72 8.50 5.46 7.46 10.28 11.77 13.41 11.02 12.00-12.00 12.00-12.00 12.00-12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00-12.00 12.00-12.00 12.00-11.50 11.50 10.00 10.00-10.00 10.00- 9.50 9.50- 9.00 9.00-8.50 18.87 14.86 15.75-15.75 17.00-15.75 16.50-16.50 16.50-16.50 16.50-16.50 16.50-16.50 16.50-15.50 15.50-13.50 13.50-13.50 13.50-12.00 12.00-11.50 11.50-11.50 12.66 14.70 15.14 15.25 15.12 15.67 15.84 15.89 15.40 15.70 15.68 14.98 14.41 13.81 13.69 11.79 8.15 8.50-8.50 11.50-11.00 13.49 11.82 11.91 11.82 11.77 11.70 11.70 11.94 12.06 8.50 8.41 8.45 8.23 8.00 8.01 8.32 8.49 9.00-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 11.50-11.50 11.50-11.50 11.50-11.50 11.50-11.50 11.50-11.00 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 11.00 11.00 8.02 8.73 5.61 7.99 10.91 12.29 14.76 4 6.83 9.06 12.67 15.27 9.02 9.56 10.78 6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Rates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices rose in January. INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965=50 90 INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965=50 1 90 80 70 - 70 COMPOSITE PRICE INDEX STOCK (NYSE)- 60 50 40 1976 1977 1978 1979 1981 1982 1983 PERCENT PERCENT 1 20 20 EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS (S&P) 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1982 1980 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION Common stock price s 1 Ne^v York Stock Ex change indexes (1 )ec. 31, 1965-5O ) Period Composite 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec r 1983: Jan Week ended: 1982: Dec 25 1983: Jan 1 8 15 22 29 Feb 5 1 - Industrial Transporta- Utility Common st ock yields (percent)* 2 Finance Dow-Jones industrial3 average Standard & Poor's composite index (194143 = 10)4 Dividendprice ratio 53.69 53.70 58.32 68.10 74.02 68.93 57.86 41.09 55.25 56.65 61.42 64.25 73.52 71.99 894.63 820.23 844.40 891.41 932.92 884.36 4.62 43.50 47.34 60.61 72.61 60.41 40.92 39.22 38.20 37.35 38.91 39.75 98.20 58.23 64.76 78.70 85.44 78.18 96.02 103.01 118.78 128.05 119.71 5.28 5.47 5.26 5.20 5.81 67.91 66.16 63.86 66.97 67.07 63.10 62.82 62.91 70.21 76.10 79.75 80.30 83.25 76.85 74.78 71.51 75.59 75.97 71.59 71.37 70.98 80.08 86.67 90.76 92.00 95.37 62.04 59.09 55.19 57.91 56.84 53.07 53.40 53.98 61.39 66.64 71.92 73.40 75.65 39.30 38.32 38.57 39.20 39.40 37.34 37.20 38.19 40.36 42.67 43.46 42.93 45.59 70.99 70.50 69.08 71.44 69.16 63.19 61.59 62.84 69.66 80.59 88.66 86.22 85.66 853.41 833.15 812.33 844.96 846.72 804.37 818.41 832.11 917.27 988.71 1,027.76 1,033.08 1,064.29 117.28 114.50 110.84 116.31 116.35 109.70 109.38 109.65 122.43 132.66 138.10 139.37 144.27 5.95 6.06 6.28 5.99 5.97 6.28 6.31 6.32 5.63 5.12 4.92 4.93 4.79 79.64 81.12 82.04 84.44 84.22 82.20 83.32 91.35 93.11 94.12 96.86 96.46 93.95 95.36 72.07 73.62 73.57 77.40 76.46 74.97 77.96 42.63 43.46 44.46 45.58 46.35 45.83 46.05 84.56 85.34 85.25 87.96 86.04 83.58 84.27 1,028.72 1,056.59 1,053.00 1,082.91 1,071.26 1,047.72 1,068.14 138.36 141.03 142.42 146.33 145.70 142.41 144.38 4.96 4.87 4.84 4.69 4.74 4.87 4.81 Average of daily closing prices. Includes all the" stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE. Includes 30 stocks. 4 Includes 500 stocks. 5 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earningsprice ratios based on prices at end of quarter. 2 3 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Earningsprice ratio i 10.79 12.03 13.46 12.66 11.96 13.23 r 12.93 NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first 3 months of fiscal year 1983, there was a budget deficit of $68.3 billion, compared to a budget deficit of $48.2 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 800 800 700 700 600 500 -100 -100 -200 -200 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 FISCAL YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Period Budget receipts Budget outlays Budget surplus or deficit (— ) Fiscal year or period: 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Transition quarter 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 r. 1983 (estimates) l 1984 (estimates) 1 207.3 230.8 263.2 279.1 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 597.5 659.7 230.7 245.6 267.9 324.2 364.5 94.2 400.5 448.4 491.0 576.7 657.2 728.4 805.2 848.5 -23.4 14.8 -4.7 45.2 -66.4 13.0 -44.9 48.8 -27.7 59.6 -57.9 110.6 -207.7 188.8 Cumulative total first 3 months: Fiscal year 1982 Fiscal year 1983 146.0 137.0 194.2 205.3 -48.2 -68.3 'Estimates from The Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1984, January 32 Off-budget outlays Total surplus or deficit (— ) Federal debt ( end of period) Gross Held by the public 10.4 1?.5 14.2 21.0 17.3 17.0 14.0 -23.4 14.9 -6.1 53.2 -73.7 14.7 -53.6 59.2 -40.2 73.8 -78.9 127.9 -224.8 202.8 437.3 468.4 486.2 544.1 631.9 646.4 709.1 780.4 833.8 914.3 1,003.9 1,147.0 1,383.7 1,606.3 323.8 343.0 346.1 396.9 480.3 498.3 551.8 610.9 644.6 715.1 794.4 929.4 1,144.4 1,347.4 3.6 1.1 -51.8 69.4 1,034.7 1,201.9 830.1 991.4 .1 1.4 8.1 7.3 1.8 8.7 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget, 1983. FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 3 months of fiscal year 1983, budget receipts were $9.0 outlays were $11.1 billion higher. billion lower than a year earlier and budget BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 300 300 200 200 BUDGET OUTLAYS 600 600 500 500 NONDEFENSE ^* 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1982 1981 1980 1984 1983 FISCAL YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Budget outlays Budget r<3ceipts Nation al defense Period Total Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes Other Total Total Fiscal year or period: 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Transition quarter 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 r 1982 r 1983 (estimates) 1 1984 (estimates) 1 207.3 230.8 263.2 279.1 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 597.5 659.7 94.7 103.2 119.0 122.4 131.6 38.8 157.6 181.0 217.8 244.1 285.9 297.7 285.2 295.6 32.2 36.2 38.6 40.6 41.4 8.5 54.9 60.0 65.7 64.6 61.1 49.2 35.3 51.8 80.4 91.4 105.7 116.1 125.0 34.0 143.0 158.6 179.8 208.4 252.2 270.8 277.0 312.3 230.7 245.6 267.9 324.2 364.5 94.2 400.5 448.4 491.0 576.7 657.2 728.4 805.2 848.5 Cumulative total first 3 months: Fiscal year 1982 Fiscal year 1983 146.0 137.0 70.1 68.2 12.2 7.0 63.7 61.8 194.2 205.3 1 Estimates from The Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1984, January 1983. Note.—One substantial change has been made in the functional classification: the interest function has been changed to net interest. Formerly, the interest function total included all Treasury interest Department of Defense, military International affairs 77.8 85.6 89.4 22.3 97.5 105.2 117.7 135.9 159.8 187.4 214.8 245.3 75.1 73.2 77.6 84.9 87.9 21.9 95.6 103.0 115.0 132.8 156.1 182.9 208.9 238.6 4.7 4.1 5.7 6.9 5.6 2.2 4.8 5.9 6.1 10.7 11.1 10.0 11.9 13.3 45.2 51.4 44.1 50.0 2.5 2.1 76.6 74.5 Health and income security Net Other 158.9 41.0 174.5 187.4 207.1 248.3 291.1 322.4 364.8 373.1 15.5 17.3 21.4 23.2 26.7 6.9 29.9 35.4 42.6 52.5 68.7 84.7 88.9 103.2 58.2 74.2 83.9 21.8 93.8 114.4 117.5 129.3 126.5 123.9 124.7 113.7 89.4 89.4 27.7 30.5 29.4 32.0 80.0 90.4 104.8 134.3 53.9 59.3 payments, including those made to trust funds. The new net interest functional total is the amount paid by the Treasury to the public. Intragovernmental payments are netted out. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the third quarter of 1982, Federal receipts decreased $3.3 billion (annual rate) and expenditures rose $33.1 billion, yielding a deficit of $156.0 billion. In the fourth quarter, according to preliminary estimates, expenditures rose $46.2 billion; receipts data are incomplete. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 900 800 800 700 700 600 600 300 SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-} -100 -100 -200 -200 1976 1975 1977 1978 1979 1983 1982 1981 1980 CALENDAR YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal ijrovernment expenditur es Federal Governme it receipts Period Total Fiscal year: 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Calendar year: 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982". 1981: I n in IV 1982: I n m Personal tax and nontax receipts 414.3 480.8 525.1 614.7 618.2 186.5 222.6 250.1 431.6 493.6 540.7 628.2 614.7 620.0 627.0 640.2 625.7 609.9 617.0 613.7 194.9 230.6 257.5 298.1 300.1 286.4 297.0 307.9 300.9 299.9 305.8 295.6 299.3 IV P 291.7 303.0 Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Contributions for social insurance 67.3 76.1 70.0 70.9 50.1 27.2 29.1 34.7 55.7 50.7 133.3 153.1 170.3 196.3 214.4 450.4 495.6 577.0 666.5 739.7 28.1 29.4 38.9 58.5 50.0 57.5 61.5 57.8 57.2 48.7 49.8 50.8 50.7 137.2 159.5 174.1 204.3 216.5 199.9 202.8 206.1 208.4 214.9 216.2 217.5 217.4 461.0 509.7 602.1 688.2 762.6 659.7 667.5 698.2 727.4 728.3 736.6 769.7 815.9 71.3 74.2 70.3 67.3 48.1 76.1 65.6 68.4 59.1 46.5 45.2 49.8 Total Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget. 34 Grantsin-aid to State and local governments Net ' interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises 33.5 40.6 50.6 66.2 82.5 9.7 9.9 10.5 13.1 12.8 .0 -.0 .0 .1 -.1 35.2 42.4 53.1 71.9 84.8 66.3 68.3 74.0 79.0 79.6 82.8 88.7 88.2 9.5 9.2 11.7 13.1 15.1 12.2 13.7 13.0 13.6 12.7 11.6 12.6 23.4 .0 .0 -.0 .0 .0 Purchases of goods and services Transfer payments 150.4 164.1 182.2 201.8 189.8 218.1 250.1 239.4 279.2 310.8 74.7 79.1 86.7 90.1 83.4 153.6 168.3 197.2 228.9 257.3 217.0 218.2 230.0 250.5 249.7 244.3 259.0 276.1 185.6 209.2 251.4 286.6 321.9 274.0 276.7 295.1 300.7 303.2 312.8 327.4 344.0 77.3 80.5 88.7 87.7 83.6 90.2 90.6 86.3 83.6 83.0 85.0 82.0 84.2 Less: Wage accruals less disbursements .0 .0 .2 .1 .2 .0 .0 .0 Surplus or deficit (—), national income and product accounts -36.1 14.8 -51.9 51.9 -121.5 -29.5 -16.1 61.4 -60.0 147.9 39.7 -40.5 58.0 -101.7 -118.4 119.6 -156.0 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES [1967 = 100] Indu stria! prod action (setisonally adju sted) Period 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 r 1982" 1982: Jan Feb r Mar r. Apr r May r June rr July Aug r Sept r. Oct r Nov r Dec" 1 United States 130.5 138.2 146.1 152.5 147.0 151.0 138.6 140.7 142.9 141.7 140.2 139.2 138.7 138.8 138.4 137.3 135.8 134.8 134.7 Canada Japan 148.5 152.2 157.8 167.4 164.6 167.3 182.0 189.7 201.1 217.7 157.8 156.5 154.1 152.4 153.6 149.7 145.4 151.3 146.4 141.8 243.8 242.0 245.1 240.7 236.4 241.8 243.0 242.3 245.1 237.7 243.3 Consume;r prices (imadjusted) Italy France Germany 149 152 154 161 160 149.1 152.0 154.1 161.8 162.3 159.9 143.5 145.1 147.9 157.6 160 163 163 161 160 157 151 157 154 152 156.7 164.1 161.4 161.3 160.4 154.0 158.6 127.5 153.6 147.4 232.5 239.5 157 156 156 157 156 157 159 151 151 154 156 -156 United Kingdom United States 1 Canada 117.4 123.0 127.0 132.2 123.6 170.5 181.5 195.4 217.4 246.8 272.4 289.1 282.5 283.4 283.1 284.3 287.1 290.6 292.2 292.8 293.3 294.1 293.6 292.4 172.1 185.9 202.5 221.0 243.5 166.5 162.7 118.8 118.5 119.3 119.9 120.1 120.4 118.8 119.7 119.7 120.1 119.8 273.9 303.4 288.7 292.1 295.8 297.5 301.5 304.5 306.1 307.6 309.2 311.2 313.3 313.4 Japan France Germany Italy 196.1 150.4 218.1 252.3 261.3 282.2 296.2 214.5 233.9 259.1 294.2 332.7 155.9 160.2 166.8 175.9 186.3 255.2 286.2 328.5 398.0 472.4 300.7 299.8 300.4 302.9 303.8 303.8 301.5 303.8 309.1 310.0 306.6 356.0 359.6 363.8 368.2 371.1 373.7 374.7 375.9 377.5 379.5 383.2 192.3 192.8 193.1 194.0 195.2 197.1 197.6 197.3 197.9 198.5 198.9 517.7 524.4 529.1 533.9 539.8 545.2 553.4 563.4 571.3 582.7 590.3 224.9 243.0 United Kingdom 252.4 292.4 316.6 359.0 423.6 473.9 514.7 499.0 499.1 503.5 513.6 517.3 518.9 518.9 519.0 518.7 521.3 523.9 522.9 Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, Office of Trade Investment and Analysis, Trade Performance Division, in International Economic Indicators. Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] MenJhandise expc rts 1 Period Total domestic and foreign exports Merc handise imp orts Total 2 Food, beverages, and tobacco Crude materials and fuels Merch andise trade balance Gerleral import s 3 Domestic exports Manufactured goods Total 2 Exports a Food, beverages, and tobacco Crude materials and fuels Manufactured goods Total (c.i.f. value) 827 991 1,186 1,312 1,478 1,546 2,716 3,457 4,257 5,398 6,379 8,360 9,352 10,427 8,823 11,042 13,368 15,504 18,519 21,415 11,873 12,002 11,414 12,584 11,527 12,402 10,337 13,219 12,899 10,982 14,111 12,434 12,028 11,038 10,621 22,779 21,240 20,699 23,870 19,900 21,237 18,165 21,509 22,259 20,449 24,578 21,580 22,024 19,783 19,701 a 55 \ less imports (customs value) Exports (f.a.s.) less imports (f.a.s.) Exports (f.a.8.) less imports (c.i.f.) 762 -688 -2,430 -2,590 -2,300 -2,020 148 -1,440 1^.a.s. valui Monthly average: 1975* 1976* 1977* 1978* 1979* 1980 15,155 18,386 8,847 9,462 9,919 11,762 14,886 18,043 19,473 17,683 18,885 18,737 18,704 18,602 17,843 18,218 18,822 18,027 17,498 17,387 16,698 15,693 16,335 19,075 17,256 18,377 18,350 18,341 18,127 17,441 17,807 18,386 17,638 17,177 16,651 16,310 15,317 15,902 8,971 9,602 10,103 11,973 2,049 2,534 1,266 1,341 1,548 1,746 2,352 2,810 5,913 6,437 6,679 7,873 9,716 11,991 8,209 10,290 12,533 14,563 17,455 20,406 2,767 2,248 2,515 2,279 2,482 2,673 2,506 2,478 2,421 1,896 2,162 1,909 2,132 2,086 1,943 2,752 2,793 2,934 3,076 3,434 3,151 2,898 2,912 2,797 2,617 2,642 2,832 2,665 2,361 2,420 12,857 11,643 12,318 12,463 11,876 11,822 11,428 11,837 12,563 12,590 11,882 11,334 10,987 10,369 10,660 21,748 20,329 19,746 22,829 19,090 20,349 17,387 20,558 21,310 19,559 23,494 20,644 21,096 18,937 18,865 1,399 1,436 1,330 1,717 4,463 4,325 5,949 7,831 -3,265 -3,530 -3,364 -3,030 Customs value 1981 1982 1981: Dec 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Get Nov Dee 1 Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginning January 1978. 2 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. 3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. NOTE.—Imports on c.i.f. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods. 1,529 1,485 1,542 1,340 1,154 1,529 1,435 1,569 1,567 1,389 1,617 1,581 1,667 1,498 1,469 7,739 6,200 6,174 8,269 5,845 5,717 5,033 4,906 6,198 6,645 7,168 5,968 6,711 5,770 6,181 -2,275 -2,647 -861 -4,092 -387 -1,747 456 -2,340 -2,488 -1,532 -5,996 -3,257 -4,398 -3,244 -2,529 -3,306 -3,558 -1,814 -5,134 -1,197 -2,635 -322 -3,291 -3,437 -2,422 -7,080 -4,192 -5,326 -4,090 3,366 Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Islands exports are reflected in the figures for domestic and foreign exports combined and trade balance. * Data for 1975-79 for domestic and foreign exports combined, total general imports, and trade balance include trade of the Virgin Islands. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the fourth quarter, the merchandise trade deficit fell slightly to $11.9 billion from $12.5 billion in the third quarter. The trade deficit for the year 1982 was $36.1 billion, compared to $27.9 billion for 1981. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 10 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 10 1982 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits (—)] Merchandise l Period 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982* 1981: I n Ill IV 1982: I rr II r Ill IV* In vestment incorn e 3 2 Exports Imports Net balance 98,306 107,088 114,745 120,816 142,054 184,473 224,237 236,254 211,155 - 103,649 -98,041 -124,051 -151,689 -175,813 -211,819 -249,575 -264,143 -247,268 60,683 60,284 57,694 57,593 55,607 55,002 52,318 48,228 1 3 36 transportation receipts services, net 3 Balance on goods and services l Remittances, pensions, and other unilateral transfers * Balance on current account Receipts Payments -5,343 9,047 -9,306 30,873 -33,759 27,346 -25,338 27,889 -36,113 27,587 25,351 29,286 32,179 42,245 64,129 72,686 85,945 -12,084 12,564 -13,311 -14,217 -21,680 32,914 -42,776 52,908 15,503 12,787 15,975 17,962 20,565 31,215 29,910 33,037 -1,653 -746 559 1,528 621 -2,035 -2,471 -1,541 3,184 -2,792 2,558 -3,293 -3,125 -2,429 -940 -231 3,986 4,598 4,711 5,224 5,955 5,690 7,144 7,702 9,309 22,893 9,382 -9,451 -9,743 5,095 8,303 11,079 -64,995 -66,831 -65,539 -66,778 -4,312 6,547 -7,845 9,185 20,528 21,642 22,048 21,727 -12,405 -13,441 -13,865 -13,198 8,123 8,201 8,183 8,529 -487 -587 61 -528 -495 -139 200 203 1,838 1,981 1,960 1,924 4,667 2,909 2,559 943 -1,422 -1,510 -1,808 1,870 3,245 1,399 751 -927 -61,544 -60,764 -64,826 -60,134 5,937 -5,762 -12,508 -11,906 20,890 22,562 21,880 - 14,029 - 14,874 - 14,462 6,861 7,688 7,418 167 247 527 -66 -319 -201 2,034 2,050 2,140 3,123 3,971 -2,574 2,048 -1,740 -1,653 1,075 2,231 -4,227 Excludes military grants. Adjusted uste from rom Census ensus data ata for or differences erences in n ttiming m n g an and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. 2 Net Net military transactions Net -7,186 2,124 18,280 -4,613 4,384 -4,998 -4,617 - 14,068 -5,030 -14,773 -466 -5,561 1,520 -6,783 4,471 -6,608 Note.—Merchandise trade data revised for 1982; other data to be revised later. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $21.0 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $36.9 billion in the second quarter. Liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $11.5 billion in the third quarter, following an increase of $24.6 billion in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 60 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 60 -20- -20 -40 -40 -60 -60 1982 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] U.S. assets abroad, net increase /capit il outflow (— )] Period Total U.S. official reserve assets l 2 Other U.S. Government assets Foreign assets in the 1 J.S., net [increas B/ capital inflo\v ( + )] * U.S. private assets Total Foreign official assets Other foreign assets -22,874 158 -34,745 -39,703 -51,269 -34,785 -61,130 -64,344 -86,026 - 109,294 1,467 -849 2,558 -375 732 -1,133 8,155 -5,175 -2,644 366 -3,474 4,214 -3,693 4,660 -3,743 5,126 -5,137 -20,388 33,643 -35,380 44,498 -30,717 57,202 -59,469 72,746 -98,982 34,241 15,670 36,518 51,319 64,036 38,460 54,484 77,921 6,026 10,546 7,027 17,693 36,816 33,678 -13,697 15,442 4,785 12,362 23,696 8,643 18,826 14,503 30,358 52,157 39,042 73,136 -22,796 -21,566 -17,257 -47,677 -4,529 905 -4 262 -1,375 1,518 -1,257 987 -16,892 19,143 -15,996 46,952 8,470 13,464 16,880 39,107 5,361 -2,861 -5,835 8,119 3,109 16,324 22,715 30,988 1982: I -31,201 II p -37,790 Ill ... -26,364 -1,089 -1,132 794 904 -1,547 -2,418 29,208 -35,111 23,152 25,080 29,619 16,054 -3,122 1,998 2,102 28,202 27,621 13,952 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981: I II Ill IV 18,388 'Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the IMF. 2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. Statistical discrepancy Allocations of special drawing rights (SDKs) Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy -2,654 -1,620 5,753 10,367 1,139 1,152 1,093 1,093 5,045 5,940 14,537 assets, net 1 (unadjusted, end of period) 14,378 15,883 16,226 18,747 19,312 18,650 18,956 26,756 30,074 -2,465 11,866 25,212 28,870 25,809 9,988 6,703 -374 9,497 U.S. official -829 503 -2,144 2,474 -899 574 -1,973 30,410 29,582 29,715 30,074 29,944 30,671 30,993 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment—Nonfarm Business 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders .- 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets Components of Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets Consumer Installment Credit Bank Loans and Investments, and Reserves Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields , 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. 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