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95th Congress, 2d Session

Economic Indicators
January 1978

Prepared for the joint Economic Committee by the




Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1978

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
RICHARD BOLLING, Missouri, Chairman
LLOYD M. BENTSEN, JR., Texas, Vice Chairman
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
HENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin)
WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD (Pennsylvania)
LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana)
G1LLIS W. LONG (Louisiana)
OTIS G. PIKE (New York)
CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio)
GARRY BROWN (Michigan)
MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts)
JOHN H. ROUSSELOT (California)

SENATE
JOHN SPARKMAN (Alabama)
WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin)
ABRAHAM RIB1COFF (Connecticut)
EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)
JACOB K. JAVITS (New York)
WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)
JAMES A. McCLURE (Idaho)
ORRIN G. HATCH (Utah)
GEORGE McGOVERN (South Dakota)

JOHN R. STARK, Executive Director

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
CHARLES L. SCHULTZE, Chairman
LYLE E. GRAMLEY
WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS

[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT Congress; CHAPTER 237—1st SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled^ That the Joint
Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a
sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at
Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to
the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic
Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository
libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.
Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.

Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at 85 cents a single copy
or by subscription at $10.10 per year ($2.55 additional for foreign mailing) from:
SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON, B.C. 20402

11




TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

According to preliminary estimates for the fourth quarter, gross national product rose $49.2 billion or 10.7 percent,
both at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) increased at an annual rate of 4.2 percent and
the implicit price deflator rose at a 6.2 percent annual rate.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

1,800

1,800.

1,<500

1,<500

1,400

1,400

1,200

1,200

1,000

— 1,000

1977

1969

COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977*

Gross
national
product

Personal
consumption
expenditures

796.3 490.4
868.5 535. 9
935.5 579. 7
982. 4 618. 8
1, 063. 4 668. 2
1, 171. 1 733. 0
1, 306. 6 809. 9
1, 412. 9 889.6
1, 528. 8 980.4
1, 706. 5 1, 094. 0
1, 890. 4 1, 210. 1

Gross
private
domestic
investment

120. 8
131. 5
146.2
140. 8
160. 0
188.3
220. 0
214. 6
189, 1
243.3
294.3

Export s and imp>orts of
good s and services
Net
exports
4.9
2.3
1.8
3.9
1.6

-3.3
7. 1
6. 0
20.4
7.8

-9.0

Go1-/eminent

purchases of goods and
services
Federal
State
NaNonand
tional
Total
delocal
de- l
fense
fense

Final
sales

Exports

Imports

Total

45.6
49.9
54.7
62.5
65. 6
72.7
101. 6
137. 9
147. 3
162.9
175,6

40.6
47.7
52/9
58.5
64. 0
75.9
94. 4
131. 9
126.9
155. 1
184. 7

180.2
198.7
207.9
218. 9
233. 7
253. 1
269. 5
302. 7
338.9
361.4
395. 0

90. 9
98. 0
97. 5
95. 6
96. 2
102. 1
102. 2
111. 1
123.3
130. 1
145. 4

71.5
76.9
76. 3
73. 5
70.2
73. 5
73. 5
77.0
83.9
86.8
94. 3

19. 5
21.2
21. 2
22. 1
26.0
28.6
28.7
34. 1
39.4
43. 3
51, 1

89. 3
100. 7
110. 4
123. 2
137. 5
151. 0
167. 3
191.5
215. 6
231. 2
249. 5

786. 2
860. 8
926. 2
978.6
1, 057. 1
1, 161. 7
1, 288. 6
1, 404. 0
1, 540. 3
1,693. 1
1, 872. 7
1, 636. 7
1, 673. 7
1, 705. 8
1, 756. 3

1976: I
1, 651. 2 1, 056. 0
II_._ 1, 691. 91, 078. 5
III., 1, 727. 3 1, 102. 2
IV.. _ 1, 755. 4 1, 139. 0

231.
244.
254.
243.

3
4
3
4

10.2
10.2
7. 9

3.0

153.9
160, 6
168.4
168. 5

143.7
150.4
160. 6
165.6

353. 6
358.9
363.0
370.0

127. 6
128. 5
130.2
134.2

86.3
86. 0
86.4
88.4

41.3
42. 5
43. 8
45.8

225. 9
230. 4
232. 7
235. 8

1977:1
1, 810. 81, 172. 4
II,.. 1, 869. 9 1, 194. 0
III... 1, 915. 9 1, 218. 9
IV».. 1, 965. 1 1, 255. 3

271. 8
294. 9
303. 6
307.0

-8. 2
-9. 7
-7.5
-10. 8

170. 4
178. 1
179.9
174. 3

178.6
187.7
187.4
185. 1

374.9
390. 6
400.9
413.6

136. 3
143. 6
148. 1
153. 8

89. 7
93.4
95.6
98.6

46. 7
50.2
52. 5
55.2

238.5 1, 797. 0
247. 0 j 1, 848. 2
252. 9 1, 892. 2
259. 8 1, 953. 2

i This category corresponds closely with budget outlays for national defense*
shown on p. 33




Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS
[Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

i

ExF>orts of gc ods
Gross isrivate do mestic
iiavestmemii
a ttd service,s
Personal
conGross
Change
national sumpNonproduct
Resi- in busition
resiNet
expend- dential dential ness in- exports Exports Imports
ventofixed
itures
fixed
ries

Period

Governinent purehases of
good s and serdees

Total

Federal

State
and
local

Final
sales

11.6

8.5

15.9
22.5
16.0
10.7

54.2
58.5
62.2
67. 1
67.9
72.7
87.4
93.0
89.9
95.8
98.0

50.7
58.9
63. 5
65, 7
68.5
75.9
79. 9
77. 1
67.4
79. 8
87.3

248.3
259.2
256.7
250. 2
249.4
253. 1
252. 5
257.7
263.0
264.4
271.1

125.3
128.3
121.8
110.7
103. 9
102. 1
96. 6
95.8
96.7
96.5
101.4

123.1
130,9
134.9
139. 5
145. 5
151. 0
155. 9
161.8
166.3
167.9
169.7

995. 7
1, 043. 1
1, 068. 2
1, 071. 0
1, 100. 9
1, 161. 7
1, 218. 5
1, 209. 9
1, 212. 0
1, 266. 2
1, 326. 1

44.8
47. 1
47.1
52. 0

9. 7
12. 1
13.8
-1.8

16.8
16.4
17.0
13.8

93.1
95.2
97.9
96.9

76.3
78. 9
80.9
83. 1

263. 9
264.4
2646
264.6

96.4
96.1
96. 7
97. 1

167.5
168.4
168.0
167.5

1, 246. 3
1, 259. 4
1, 269. 8
1, 289. 2

52.7
57.6
57.5
59.8

13.2
15.7

9.7

10.6

7.7

12.2
10.6

96.9
98.5
99.8
96.8

86. 3
89. 1
87.6
86.2

263.3
270. 0
274,0
276.8

97.0
101. 1
103.3
104.1

166.4
168.9
170.7
172.8

1, 301. 2
1, 317. 5
1, 331. 8
1, 353. 8

1, 007. 7
1967
1968.— .. 1, 051. 8
1, 078. 8
1969
1, 075, 3
197CL
1971.,__ — 1, 107. 5
1, 171. 1
1972
1, 235. 0
1973
1, 217. 8
1974
1, 202. 1
1975
1, 274. 7
1976
1, 337. 6
1977"

603. 2
633.4
655. 4
668. 9
691. 9
733.0
767.7
760.7
775. 1
821.3
860.3

103. 5
108.0
114. 3
110. 0
108. 0
116.8
131.0
130.6
112.7
116.8
127.1

37.2
42.8
43.2
40.4
52. 2
62.0
59. 7
45.0
38.8
47.7
56.9

1976: I™. 1, 256, 0
IL... 1, 271. 5

III.. 1, 283. 7
IV.. 1, 287. 4

807.2
815. 5
822.7
839.8

113.7
115. 9
118. 5
119.0

1977:1—. 1, 311. 0
II— 1, 330. 7
III.. 1, 347. 4
IV».. 1, 361. 4

850.4
854. 1
860.4
876.4

124.3
126. 4
127.6
130.2

12.0

8.7

10.6

4.3
6.6
9.4

16.5
8.0

-9.9

3.5

— 4.

-1.3
1.4

_. 6
— 3.3
7.6

9.4

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
[1972=100]

Gross
national
product

Period

Persona 1 consurniDtion expe nditures

Total

Gross private
dom estic
invesitment

Expoi ts and
imports of goods
and s(srvices

NonResiDurable durable Services Nonres- dential
identi al
goods
fixed
goods
fixed

Governnaent purchases <Df goods
and s(srvices

T-l

Exports Imports Federal

State
and
local

1967
1968
1969
1970..
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977*

79. 02
82. 57
86.72
91. 36
96. 02
100. 00
105. 80
116. 02
127. 18
133. 88
141. 32

81. 3
84. 6
88.5
92.5
96.6
100. 0
105. 5
116. 9
126.5
133.2
140.7

87.4
90. 7
93. 1
95.5
99. 0
100. 0
101.6
108.4
117.9
124.7
130.0

81.9
85. 3
89.4
93.6
96.6
100.0
107,9
123. 8
133. 1
137. 7
144. 1

78.8
82. 0
86. 1
90. 5
95.8
100.0
104. 7
113. 6
123. 5
132. 3
141.5

79.3
82, 6
86. 6
91. 3
96. 4
100.0
103. 8
115. 3
132. 3
138. 7
146. 0

77. 0
80. 7
87. 7
90.6
94. 9
100. 0
110. 8
122. 3
132. 8
142. 5
159. 9

84. 0
85. 3
87.9
93. 1
96.6
100. 0
116.2
148. 3
163. 8
170.0
179. 2

80. 1
80.9
83.3
89. 1
93. 5
100. 0
118. 2
171.0
188.2
194. 3
211. 5

72.6
76.4
80.0
86. 4
92. 6
100. 0
105. 8
115.9
127.5
134. 8
143. 5

72. 5
76.9
81.9
88. 3
94. 5
100. 0
107.3
118.4
129.7
137.7
147, 1

1976: I
II
III
IV

131.
133.
134.
136.

47
06
56
35

130. 8
132. 3
134.0
135. 6

122.2
123. 8
125. 3
127. 2

136.2
136. 9
138. 3
139.3

129. 2
131. 1
133. 2
135. 4

136. 8
137. 8
139.2
140. 9

137.
140.
144.
147.

1
7
1
5

165.3
168. 6
172.0
174.0

188. 2
190. 7
198. 4
199.3

132.4
133. 7
134.7
138. 2

134. 9
136. 8
138.6
140.7

138.
140.
142.
144.

13
52
19
34

137. 9
139. 8
141.7
143.2

129. 3
129. 5
130. 1
131.2

141.5
143. 8
144.9
146. 0

137.8
140. 1
142.9
145. 1

142.5
144.4
146.9
150.2

153. 7
157. 6
160. 9
166. 5

175. 9
180. 8
180. 2
180. 0

207. 0
210. 6
213.9
214. 6

140. 6
142. 0
143.3
147.8

143.4
146.2
148. 1
150.4

1977:1
II
III
IV"

„__

Ecmree: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES
[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gross c lomestie j:>roduet

Gross ilational p roduct

Constant
(1972)
dollars

Current
dollars

Period

1967
1968
*-~
1969.
--.-1970
....
...
1971...
...
1972
1973
1974
._1975
1976
1977*.
1976:1
-II_____
III....
.
..
..
IV
----1977:1—.
II
III
IV*..

2.7
4.4
2. 6
-.3
3.0
5.7
5. 5
-1.4
-1.3
6.0
4.9
8. 8
5. 1
3. 9
1.2
7.5
6.2
5.1
4.2

5.8
9,1
7.7
5.0
8.2
10.1
11.6
8. 1
8.2
11.6
10.8
13.2
10.2
8.6
6.7
13. 2
13.7
10.2
10.7

Implicit
price
deflator

Fixedweighted
price
index
(1972
weights)

Chain
price
index

2.9
4.5
5.0
5.4
5.1
4. 1
5.8
9.7
9.6
5.3
5. 6
4. 1
4.9
4. 6
5.4
5.3
7. 1
4.8
6.2

NOTE.—Annual changes from previous year and quarterly changes from previous quarter.

3.0
4.4
5.0
5.3
5.0
4. 1
6. 0
9. 9
9. 5
5. 6
6.0
4. 9
5. 3
4. 6
5.9
6.9
7.0
4.3
6. 0

3.0
4.3
5.0
5.2
4.9
4.0
6.0
10. 2
9.4
5.6
6.1
4. 6
5. 2
4. 8
6.0
7. 1
7.0
4.8
6.1

Constant
(1972)
dollars

Current
dollars
5.7
9.1
7.8
5.0
8.1
10.1
11. 5
7.9
8. 5
11.4
10.7
12.4
10. 5
8. 2
6.9
12. 6
13. 6
10.5
11.1

Implicit
price
deflator

2.7
4.4
2.6
-.3
2.8
5.8
5.4
-1.3
-1. 1
5. 9
4.9
8.3
5.2
3.7
1.3
7. 2
6. 1
5.3
4.5

Chain
price
index

Fixedweighted
price
index
(1972
weights)

3.1
4.4
5.0
5.3
5.0
4.1
5.9
9. 6
9. 5
5.6
5.9
4.8
5.4
4. 5
6. 0
6.7
7.0
4.3
6.0

3.0
4,5
5.1
5.3
5.1
4.1
5.7
9.3
9.7
5. 2
5.5
3. 8
5. 0
4.4
5. 5
5. 0
7.1
49
6. 3

3.0
4.4
5.0
5.2
4.9
4.0
5.9
9.9
9.4
5.6
6. 1
4. 6
5.2
4. 6
6.1
7.0
7.0
4.8
6.2

Source: Department oi Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

Gross c omestic
prodijet of
nonfin tancial
corp orate
busi ness
>ns of
doll ars)

Current-doliar cost a nd profit per unit of outpu t (dollars ) i

Total
cost
and
profit 2

Capital
consumption
Comallowpenances Indirect sation
with
business
of
capital
taxes 3 employconees
sumption
adjustment

Current
dollars

1972
dollars

452.9
498.4
541.8
560.6
602.5
671.0
752. 0
808. 8
875. 2
991. 0
1, 104. 9

545.8
581.6
607.3
600.6
619.3
671.0
720.4
695.0
678. 9
731.0
774.1

0.830
.857
.892
.933
.973
1.000
1. 044
1. 164
1. 289
1.356
1.427

0.072
.074
. 079
. 088
. 094
.093
. 095
. 116
. 143
. 146
. 151

958. 4
1976:1
II
983. 6
III... 1, 004. 7
IV... 1, 017. 2

719.4
731. 3
736.6
736. 5

1. 332
1. 345
1.364
1. 381

. 145
. 144
. 147
. 150

.
.
.
.

1, 049. 3
ii".":.i 1, 094. 8
ni-j 1, 124 9

753. 3
771.7
781. 2

1. 393
1.419
1.440

. 149
. 148
. 151

. 140
. 139
. 140

1967
1968.
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977"

1977-1

0.084
.089
.094
. 103
. 110
. 110
. 112
. 123
. 136
. 136
. 140
134
135
136
139

1
Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonnnancial corporate
Business in 1972 dollars.
If This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product cf nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left.
8
Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments
less subsidies.




Net
interest

Corpc>rate profi ts with
invent ory valual ion and
capit,al consuniption
£idjustmen ts

Total

0. 535 0.016 0. 123
. 553 .017
. 124
. 589 . 022 . 109
.628
. 028 .086
.645
. 029 . 095
.661
.028
. 107
. 699 .032
. 105
.796
.043
.086
.849
. 115
. 045
.890
. 044
. 139
.947
. 143
.047

Profits
tax
liability
0.051
. 058
. 055
. 045
. 048
. 050
. 055
. 061
. 060
. 073
. 074

.870
.880
.892
. 916

.
.
.
.

044
044
044
045

. 139
. 142
. 145
. 132

.
.
.
.

. 930
.943
. 949

. 046
.047
. 048

. 128
. 142
. 152

.070
. 075
. 073

072
075
074
072

Profits
after4
tax
0.072
. 066
.055
.041
.046
.057
. 050
. 024
. 055
. 066
. 069

ComOutput
penper
sation
hour
per
of aU
hour
employ- of all
ees
employ(1972
ees
dollars) (dollars)

6.873
7. 105
7. 139
7. 132
7. 374
7. 595
7. 781
7. 506
7. 766
8.055

3.
3.
4.
4.
4.
5.
5.
5.
6.
7,

676
929
198
478
757
024
441
972
596
166

. 067
.066
.071
.060

7.
8.
8.
8.

6.
7.
7,
7.

953
101
238
373

. 058
.068
.079

8. 170
8.209
8.298

988
073
112
052

7. 599
7. 737
7.873

< With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics).

NATIONAL INCOME
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

Compensation of
employees l

National
income

Propri etors'
incom<3 with
inventor y valuation and capital
consuniption
adjust ments

Farm

Nonfarm

Corpor ate profits with inv<sntory va uation
and capital co nsumptioii adjustm ents

"Ri^ntnl

with
capital
consump—
tion
adjustment

Profits with inv*mtory
valuat ion adjuslbment
and ^without ca pital
consum ption adJListment
Total
Total

Profits
before
tax

Inventory
valua-

Capital
Net
coninterest
sumption
adjustment

adjustment

471.9
655. 8
1967.519.8
1968
.....,-. 7144
571. 4
1969
._ 767.9
798.4
609. 2
1970
650. 3
858. 1
1971_ _ „
715. 1
951. 9
1972
799.2
1,064. 6
1973
875. 8
1974.
.
,-. 1, 136. 0
930. 3
1975
- 1,217. 0
1, 364. 1 1, 036. 3
1976
1977 ». ... ..- 1, 520. 3 1, 155. 8

12. 1
12.0
13.9
13.9
14.3
18.0
32. 0
25.4
23. 2
18.6
19.5

48. 9
51. 4
52.3
51.2
53.4
58. 1
60.4
60.9
62.8
69. 4
78.4

19.4
18.6
18. 1
18.6
20. 1
21.5
21.6
21.4
22.3
23. 3
25,3

79.3
85.8
81.4
67.9
77.2
92. 1
99, 1
83.6
99.3
128. 1
140. 3

75.6
82.1
77.9
66.4
76.9
89.6
97.2
86.5
111. 5
142.7
157. 5

77.3
85.6
83.4
71.5
82.0
96.2
115. 8
126. 9
123. 5
156. 9
172. 1

-1.7
-3.4
-5.5
-5.1
-5.0
-6.6
-18. 6
-40.4
-12. 0
-14. 1
-14. 5

3.7
3.7
3.5
1. 5
.3
2.5
1.9
-2.9
-12. 2
-14.7
-17.2

24. 3
26.8
30.8
37.5
42.8
47.0
52. 3
69. 0
79. 1
88. 4
100.9

999. 6
. 1, 321. 0
1, 353. 9 1, 024. 9
1, 379. 6 1, 046. 5
... 1, 402. 1 1, 074. 2

20.0
21. 6
16.2
16. 6

66.9
68.8
70.0
72.0

23. 0
22.9
23.3
24. 1

126. 5
129.2
133. 5
123. 1

141. 1
143. 7
148. 2
137.9

153.5
159.2
159.9
154,8

-12. 4
-15.5
-11.7
-16.9

-14.6
-146
-14.7
-14. 8

85.0
86. 5
90. 1
92. 0

1, 109. 9
1, 144. 7
1, 167. 4
1, 201. 3

20.7
19.7
15.5
22.1

74,3
77.3
80.0
82.0

24. 5
24.9
25. 5
26.4

125.4
140.2
149.0

141. 0
156.2
166,9

161.7
174.0
172.8

-20.6
-17.8
-5.9
-13.8

-15. 6
-15. 9
-17.9
-19.4

95.3
98,9
103. 1
106.4

1976:1.
II _
III
IV...

1, 450. 2
1977:1—
II...
... 1, 505. 7
III
1, 540. 5
IV »..™ ...

i Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.)

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
[Billions of dollars except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Nondura ble goods

D urable goo ds
Tntftl

Period

personal
consumption
expenditures

Total
durable
goods l

Motor
vehicles
and
parts

Furniture
and
household
equipment

Total
nondurable
goods 1

Food

Clothing Gasoline
and
and oil
shoes

Services

Retail sales of
new pa ssenger
cars (nlillions
of uinits)
Domestics

Imports
1

490.4
1967-.__-.1968
535.9
1969
579.7
1970
618.8
668. 2
1971.
1972_
733.0
1973
...
809. 9
1974
,_
889. 6
980.4
1975
...
1, 094. 0
1976...
1977 ».„... 1, 210. 1

69.6
80.0
85.5
84.9
97. 1
111. 2
123. 7
122. 0
132.9
158. 9
179.4

29, 7
35.8
37. 7
34.9
43.8
50.6
55.2
48. 0
53. 9
71.9
83.8

29. 5
32. 6
35.0
36. 7
39.4
44.8
50.7
54.9
58.0
63. 9
70.3

212. 6
230. 4
247. 0
264.7
277. 7
299. 3
333. 8
376, 3
409.3
442, 7
480, 1

109.6
118.3
126. 1
136.3
140.6
150.4
168. 1
189.8
209. 5
225. 5
246. 3

38.2
41.8
45. 1
46.6
50. 5
55. 1
61. 3
65. 3
70. 2
76. 3
82. 6

17.0
18. 4
20.4
22. 0
23,4
249
27.8
36.4
39. 1
41. 4
44. 8

208.1
225.6
247.2
269.1
293,4
322.4
352.3
391. 3
438. 2
492. 3
550, 6

7.6
8.6
8.5
7. 1
8.7
9.3
9,7
7.5
7. 1
8.6
9. 1

0.8
1.0
1. 1
1. 3
1. 6
1. 6
1.8
1. 4
1. 6
1. 5
2. 1

1976:1,
II
III....
IV....

1, 056. 0
1, 078. 5
1, 102. 2
1, 139. 0

153.3
156.7
159. 3
166. 3

68.8
71. 0
72. 1
75.7

61.9
63.0
63.9
66.5

430.4
437. 1
444.7
458.8

219. 3
223. 8
227.0
232. 0

74.2
74. 3
76. 9
79.9

40. 6
40. 3
41. 2
43.5

472. 4
484.6
498. 2
513. 9

8.8
8.7
8.4
8.5

1.3
1.4
1.5
1.7

1977:1
1, 172. 4
II..... 1, 194. 0
III.... 1, 218. 9
IV».- 1, 255. 3

177.0
178.6
177. 6
184. 6

85.3
84. 5
81.2
84. 1

67.4
69,3
70.9
73.4

466. 6
474, 4
481.8
497.7

237. 9
244. 8
248. 3
254. 2

79. 3
80. 4
83.3
87.5

44. 1
44.3
44. 2
46.4

528. 8
541. 1
559. 5
572.9

9.4
9.3
8.9

1.8
2. 4
2.0
2.0

i Total includes other items not shown separately.




a9

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income rose $18.3 billion (annual rate) in December, following a $15.7 billion (revised) increase in November. Wages and salaries were up $3.6 billion in December. All other major types of personal income also rose.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

1,600
T,400
1f200
1,000
800
600

WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS

40
1977

1969
*SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Wage

Period

3
Total
Other Proprietc>rs' income Rental
and
income
personal salary
labor
of
income disburse- income 12 Farm
Nonfarm persons 4
ments l

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976

801.3
859. 1
942.5

546. 5
579. 4
633. 8
701.3

1, 052. 4
1, 154. 9
764.6
1, 253. 4
805.7
1, 382. 7
891. 8
1977"...
1, 536. 1
989. 5
1976: Dec
1, 450. 2 931.7
1977: Jan
1, 454. 3
937. 3
Feb
1, 477. 0
951. 7
Mar
1, 499. 1 964.9
Apr
1, 510. 1
974. 1
May
1, 517. 3
982. 0
June
1, 524 3
986. 5
July..,. 1, 539. 2
992. 9
Aug_- 1, 549. 0 997. 9
Sept
1, 561. 3 1, 006. 0
Oct
1, 583. 8 1, 022. 1
Nov
1, 599. 6 1, 027. 8
Dec *»___ 1, 617. 9 1, 031. 4

32.0
36.2
42.0
48. 7
55.6
649
75.9
88.6
81. 0
82. 1
83.2
844
85.5
86.7
87.9
89. 1
90. 3
91.5
92. 8
94 0
95. 3

13.9
143

18. 0
32.0
25. 4
23.2
18.6
19. 5
18. 1
19. 6
21. 0
21. 7
20.9
19.8
18.4
16.5
15. 1
14 9
17.2
20. 6
28. 5

51.2
53.4
58. 1
60. 4
60.9
62.8
69.4
78.4
73. 2
72. 5
744

76.0
76.9
77.2
77.6
79. 2
80,2
80.8
81. 5
82. 1
82. 5

1
The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs
from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements.
2
Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare
kinds; workmen's compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items.
F » with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
'With capital consumption adjustment.




18. 6
20. 1
21.5
21. 6
21.4
22.3
23. 3
25.3
244
244

24 6
24 6

243
248

25.6

247

25.7
26. 0
26. 2
26. 4
26.6

Dividends

22.9
23.0

246

27. 8
31. 0
32.4
35.8
41.2
41.2
37.9
38.5
39. 0
39. 3
39. 6
41. 9
42. 0
42.4
42. 6
42. 7
42. 9
45. 2

Persona] Transfer
interest
payincome ments*

643

69. 3
74 6
84 1
103.0
115. 6
130.3
147. 9
137. 6
139. 0
140. 3
141. 8
143. 5
145. 2
147. 4
149. 1
150.4
151. 3
153. 1
155.5
158. 2

79.9
94 1
104 1
118. 9
140. 8
176.8
192.8
206.9

200. 0
200. 5
203. 0
206. 9
206. 0
202. 9
200. 0
207. 2
208.6

210. 2
210. 9
213. 1
213. 4

Less: PerNonsonal confarm
tributions
personal
for social
income 6
insurance

28. 0
30. 8
342

42.2
47.7
50. 4
55.2
61.2
57. 0
59. 0
59. 6
60.2
60. 6
60. 9
61. 0
61. 5
61. 6
62. 0
62. 6
62. 9
63. 1

780.7

838. 0
917. 3
1, Oil. 9
1, 119. 3
1, 218. 8
1, 351. 3
1, 502. 3
1, 418. 5
1, 421. 1
1, 442. 4
1, 463. 7
1, 475. 3
1, 483. 5
1, 491. 6
1, 508. 3
1, 519. 5
1, 531. 8
1, 551. 9
1, 564 1
1, 574 3

• Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments.
e
Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other
labor income, and agricultural net interest.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME
Real per capita disposable income rose again jn the fourth quarter.
B1LUONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
1,400

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
1,400

400
DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

6,000

400
DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALQ

6,000

-PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME-

5,000

5,000
CURRENT DOLLARS

4,000

4,000
1972 DOLLARS

3,000

3,000

i

2,000
1969

1971

1970

1972

1974

1973

1975

1976

2,000

1977

*'SEASONAllY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Less:
"Pe»t*

Period

Personal
income

tax
and
nontax
payments

Equals:
Disposable
personal
income

T

Personal
outlays *

Equals:
Personal
saving

Per c apita
dispc sable
persona] income

Current
dollars

Current
dollars

1972
dollars

Percent
change
in real
per
capita
disposable
personal
income

Saving
as percent of Populadispostion
able
(thou-2
persands)
sonal
income

Dol iars

Bil lions of d ollars

1969
1970—-.—
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977 »

1972
dollars

Per cap ita personal cc>nsumption exp<snditures

630.4
595. 3
745.8 115. 4
635. 4
685. 9
801.3 115. 3
685.5
742.8
859. 1 116. 3
942. 5 141. 2
801. 3
751.9
1, 052. 4 150. 8
901. 7
831. 3
984. 6
913. 0
1, 154. 9 170. 3
1, 253. 4 169. 0 1, 084. 4 1, 004, 2
1,382.7 196. 9 1, 185. 8 1, 119. 9
1, 536. 1 227. 5 1, 308. 6 1, 240. 9

35. 1
50. 6
57.3
49. 4
70. 3
71. 7
80. 2
65. 9
67. 8

3, 111
3,348
3,588
3,837
4, 285
4, 646
5, 077
5, 511
6, 035

3, 515
3,619
3, 714
3,837
4, 062
3, 973
4, 014
4, 137
4, 290

2,860
3, 020
3, 227
3,510
3, 849
4, 197
4, 591
5, 084
5, 580

3, 234
3,265
3,342
3, 510
3,648
3, 589
3, 629
3,817
3,967

1. 5
3.0
2.6
3.3
5.9
-2. 2
1. 0
3. 1
3.7

5.6
7. 4
7.7
6.2
7.8
7. 3
7.4
5.6
5.2

202, 677
204, 878
207, 053
208, 846
210, 410
211, 945
213, 566
215, 191
216, 856

4, 921
5, 018
5, 117
5,278
5,422
5, 513
5, 615
5, 770

3, 761
3, 794
3, 820
3,891
3, 933
3, 943
3,964
4, 028

4. 5
2. 3
.5
4. 1
2. 4
6. 4
3.5
7.4

6.3
6. 0
5. 4
4.6
4. 1
5.3
5.5
5. 7

214,
214,
215,
215,
216,
216,
217,
217,

Seas on ally ad; usted ann ual rates
1976: ! _ _ _ 1, 338. 1
II
1, 366. 7
III- 1, 393. 9
IV. _ 1, 432. 2
1977: !____ 1, 476. 8
II— 1, 517. 2
Ill 1, 549. 8
IV *_ 1, 600. 5

184. 8
192. 6
200. 6
209. 5
224. 4
224.8
226. 1
234. 6

1,153.3
1, 174. 1
1, 193. 3
1, 222. 6
1, 252. 4
1, 292. 5
1, 323.8
1, 365. 9

1 080. 9
1 103. 8
1 128. 5
1 166. 3
1 201. 0
1 223. 9
1, 250. 5
1, 288. 1

72. 4
70.3
64. 8
56. 3
51. 4
68. 5
73. 3
77. 8

5, 374
5, 462
5, 540
5, 665
5, 793
5,967
6,098
6,279

1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers
to2 business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net).
Includes Armed Forces abroad, Annual data are for July 1 through 1973 and
are averages of quarterly data beginning 1974. Quarterly data are average for the
period.




4, 107
4, 130
4, 135
4, 177
4,202
4, 268
4,305
4, 383

608
948
380
827
206
603
073
542

Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau
of the Census).

FARM INCOME
In the third quarter of 1977, farm Income excluding inventory change fell $3.8 billion (annual rate) while income
including inventory change fell $3.3 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALQ

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

120

120

100

100

REALIZED GROSS
FARM INCOME

80

80

60

40

NET FARM INCOME
INCLUDING NET INVENTORY
CHANGE
-

40

40

x

20

20

10

_f

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

•1975

1976

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE.- DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

10

1977

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Persona I income received
by total farm po pulation

income received from f armin g
Realize;d gross

Period

From
From From
all
farm nonfarm Total1
sources sources sources
1

1970-.
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977"
1976:1
II
IIL.._
IV
1977: I
II
III

27.4
28. 7
34.4
48. 6
44.7
44. 3
42.0
44.5

13.0
13. 4
16. 8
29. 0
23. 1
21. 5
17.8
18.6

14.4
15.3
17.6
19. 5
21. 6
22. 8
24.2
25.9

58. 6
60. 6
70. 1
95. 5
100.0
96.7
103.6

102. 1
109. 6
100.9
101. 9
105. 8
107. 5
99.5

Net inc ome per
Nett<3 farm
farm incl uding net
oper ators
Cash receipts Tom
inventor y change 3
rnarketing.3
Produc- Exclud- Includtion ex- ing net ing net
Livepenses
1967 4
inven- inven- Current
stock
Total
Crops
and
tory
tory 2 dollars dollars
change change
products
Dollars
Billioris of doll a rs
14. 1
4,790
29.6
14.2
4, 202
50.5
44.4
21.0
30. 6
5,030
52.9
22. 3
4,263
47.4
13. 2
14.6
6,504
61.2
35. 7
25. 5
17. 8
18. 7
5,288
52.3
45. 9
41. 1
29. 9
33. 3 11, 727
87. 1
65. 6
8,817
9, 232
92.4
41. 4
72.2
51. 1
27. 7
6, 114
26. 1
8,637
43. 0
45. 1
24. 3
88. 1
20. 8
5,203
75.9
94. 3
46. 4
21. 9
7,203
20.0
47.9
81.7
4,093

93.0
100.4
91. 5
92. 4
96. 1
97.7
89. 3

1
Cash receipts from marketings. Government payments, and nonmoney income furnished by farms.
a
Inventory of crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year.
s Based on Census of Agriculture definition of a farm. The number of farms is
held constant within a year.
* Incorre in current dollars divided by the :ndex of rricer paid by farmers for

22-4540—78




46.3
48.3
45.5
45.4
45. 7
47. 7
47.6

46.7
52. 1
46.0
47.0
50.4
50.0
41. 7

79. 1
84.2
82. 3
81. 2
83.5
87. 5
83.3

23.0
25.4
18. 6
20. 7
22. 3
20.0
16.2

21.5
23.2
17.6
18. 0
21. 8
20.5
17.2

7,740
8,350
6,330
6,480
7, 920
7,450
6,250

4, 500
4,800
3,580
3,600
4,320
4, 000
3,290

family living items on a 1967 base. As of January 1977 movement is based on the
overall change in the consumer price index.
Source: Department of Agriculture.

CORPORATE PROFITS
In 1977, according to preliminary estimates, profits before tax with and without inventory valuation adjustment rose
about 10 percent. Profits after tax rose about 11^ percent.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

40

40

1969
SOURC& DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Period

COUNCH OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Prof its after tax
Profit & (before tax) wit]i inventc>ry valua tion
adjuster lent 1
InvenDomes>tie indu stries
TT_
untory
Tax
Profits
disN<snfinanci al
valualiabefore
tribDivition
bility Total dends
Whole- tax
uted
Total2
adjustManu- sale
profTotal Finanment
and
cial Total 3 iacits
turretail
mg
trade
-1.7
20. 1
449
24 7
77.3
32.5
37.9
8.9
9.0
63. 6
72.6
75.6
21. 9
242
-3. 4
46. 2
41.2
39.4
85.6
10. 1
10.4
68. 5
78.9
82. 1
22. 6
21.2
-5.5
43. 8
39.7
36.8
10. 1
83. 4
742
11. 3
62.9
77.9
22. 9
37.0
-5. 1
14 1
345
71.5
9.4
27. 1
50. 1
12.6
66.4
62.6
23. 0
-5.0
443
21. 3
82, 0
32.4
37.7
58.2
11.7
72.4
14 1
76.9
246
-6.6
54 6
30.0
41.5
40. 6
13.3
96, 2
69.3
15. 4
84 7
89.6
-18.6
27.8
39.3
67. 1
115. 8
44. 1
147
48. 7
74 1
90.4
16. 2
97.2
— 40.4
745
31. 0
43. 6
52. 4
36.6
12, 9
62. 5
126.9
144
86.5
76.9
32. 4
— 12. 0
41. 0
73. 4
47. 9
22. 1
50. 2
123. 5
90. 3
105.4
15. 0
111.5
56.4
-14 1
92. 1
35.8
64 7
66.3
156.9
27. 1
1346
18. 2 116. 4
142. 7
41. 2
-14 5
61.7
69.2 102.9
172. 1
747
147.9
20. 6 127.3
157.5
-12. 4
33.6
56.8
90. 4
153.5
63. 1
65. 3
26. 5
17.8 114 6
132. 4
141. 1
-15. 5
35.0
58. 1
93. 1
159. 2
66. 1
68. 7
25. 5
18, 1 118. 0
136. 1
143. 7
-11.7
36.0
58.0
94 0
65. 9
68.4
159. 9
18.4 121. 3
29. 1
148.2
139. 8
38.4
52. 5
-16. 9
90. 9
63. 9
62. 9
27.4
154 8
130.2
18. 4 111.8
137. 9
97.2
-20. 6
38. 5
58. 8
64 4
19.2 111.8
65.2
240
161. 7
131.0
141.0
-17. 8
64.1
40. 3
1740
76.4
69. 7 1043
25. 4
145.5
19.9 125.5
156.2
42. 3
61. 2
-5.9
172.8
69. 3 103. 6
77. 6
21. 2 136. 1
166.9
157.4
31. 2
— 13. 8
43.6
f nn

1967
1968.—.-.
1969
1970. . . .
...
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976 ..
1977 ».
1976: I
II
III
IV
1977: I
II
III
IV 9
1

See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
23 Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.
Includes industries not shown separately.

8




Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
Business fixed investment rose $8,0 billion (annual rate) in the fourth quarter as purchases of producers* durable
equipment increased $5.8 billion and investment in structures rose $2.3 billion. Residential investment increased
$7.0 billion. Inventory investment amounted to $11.9 billion, down $11.7 billion from the third quarter level.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
120

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
300 -GROSS PRIV>til

DOMESTIC INVESTMENT-

s*

•>ZA

220

Sitf^^

/"

NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT

100

^\
vy
V/1

./^

180

-

-

.PRODUCERS'
DURABLE EQUIPMENT

80

60

IjiA

STRUCTURES

1

1

1 V

1

!

1

. , 1 1 !

1 1 1

1 I !

40

I

I

I 1

I

1

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
40 -CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES

-20 -40
1977

1973
•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE, DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Noiiresidential fixed investmcmt

Gross
private
domestic
invest-

Period

Struc,tures
Total
Total

1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976__
1977 p
1976: I
II
III
IV
1977: I
II
III
IV »

120.8
131.5
146. 2
„
140. 8
_. 160. 0
188. 3
220.0
214. 6
189. 1
243. 3
. _ 294. 3
231. 3
244. 4
254. 3
243.4
271.8
294.9
303.6
307.0

82. 1
89.3
98.9
100. 5
104. 1
116. 8
136. 0
150. 6
149. 1
161.9
185. 6
155.4
159. 8
164. 9
167. 6
177.0
182.4
187.5
195. 5

Nonfarm

29. 5
28. 2
30.4
31.6
34.3
35.7
36. 1
37.7
39.3
37. 8
42. 5
41. 1
46. 9
49. 0
54. 5
51. 8
52. 9
50.4
53.4
55.8
58.9
61. 6
54.7
52. 1
55. 8
53. 4
56. 0
53. 6
54. 4
57. 0
57.9
55. 1
58.2
61.0
60. 1
62.6
64.9 1 62. 1

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




Prodiucers1
dur able
equip ment
Total

48.0
53.4
58.9
58. 1
59.9
69. 1
80. 1
88. 2
87. 1
95.9
112. 9
90.5
93. 8
98. 4
100. 7
107.8
110.0
114. 0
119.7

T>I.|-\

Total

Nonfarm

52.6
57.7
63.3
62. 8
64. 7
74. 3
87. 0
96.2
96.3
106. 1
124. 0
100. 8
104. 0
109. 0
110. 6
119.2
121. 4
124.9
130.7

Resid ential fij[ed investment

28.6
34.5
37.9
36. 6
49. 6
62. 0
66. 1
55. 1
51.5
68. 0
90.9
61.4
66. 3
67.8
76.7
81.0
90.8
92.5
99. 5

Nonfarm
structures
27.2
33. 1
36. 3
35.1
47.9
60.3
64.3
52.7
49. 5
65.7
88. 4
58. 9
64. 1
65. 7
74.3
78. 5
88.2
89. 9
97.0

Farm ducers'
struc- durable
equipment
0. 7
.6

. /
.6
.7
.7
.6

10. 1

.9
1.0

9.4
3.8
6.4

.9

1. 1
1.2

.9
1. 0
1. 1

1:2
1.0

1. 2

1. 1
1. 1

1. 3
1. 4

.9

1.2
1.1

1. 0 1

Total

0.7
.8

1. 2
1. 1
1. 3
1. 4

1.2

Change in business in\ entories

1.2

1.2

1.4
1.5

1. 5

7.7

9. 4
17. 9
8.9

-11.5
13. 3
17,8
14.5
18. 3
21.5
-.9

13. 8
21.7
23.6
11.9

Nonfarm
9.4
7.6

9. 2
3.7

5. 1
8. 8
14.7
10.8
-15;1
14. 9
17. 5
15. 9
20.4
22. 0
1.4

14. 1
22. 4
23. 1
10. 4

EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
Business plans to increase capital spending 10.1 percent in 1978, according to the Commerce Department survey
conducted in November and December. Spending in 1977 was 13.7 percent above the 1976 level, according to the
estimates released in December.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCAU)

TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT

20
1970

1971

J/ 'SEE FOOTNOTE' 4 BELOW.
SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
E3^penditurtis

Total l

1971.
1972..
1973
1974
1975
1976 4
1977
4

N onmanuf acturing

M anufacturi ng

Period

-

1978
1976: III_._IV
1977: III
III

Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable
goods

81.21
88.44
99.74
112. 40
112. 78
120. 49

29.99
31. 35
38. 01
46. 01
47.95
52.48
61. 03

14. 15
15. 64
19. 25
22. 62
21.84
23. 68

15. 84
15. 72
18. 76
23. 39
26. 11
28.81

150. 89

67.35
54. 78
54.44
56. 43
59. 46
63. 02

137. 02

122. 55
125. 22
130. 16
134. 24
140. 38

I V * _ _ _ 142. 38
146. 26
1978: I 4
II*_.__ 149. 86

64. 42
64. 14
67. 73

Total




Trans- Public ComMining porta- utili- munication
tion
ties

Commercial

4.44

6.99

86.14

and
other 2
10. 77 18. 05
11. 89 20. 07
12. 85 21. 40
13. 96 22. 05
12.74 20. 60
13. 30 20. 99
15. 36 23. 06

5. 27
4.21
4. 13
4.24
4. 49
4. 74

7.39

29. 27

41 61

30. 20
28. 93
30. 13
32. 19
33.79

83.54
67. 76
70. 78
73.74
74. 78
77. 36

7. 25
7. 53
7. 29
6. 96
6. 85

21. 67
23. 46
25.35
25. 29
26. 22

34. 54
33. 68
85.91

77.96
82. 12
82. 13

4.30

7. 17
8.02

27.41
28. 72

28. 26

32. 77

31.57

35. 78

24. 59
25. 50
26.30
27. 26
29. 23
29. 88
30.46
31.82

51. 22
57.09
61.73
66. 39
64.82
68. 01
75. 99

1
Excludes agricultural business; real estate operators; medical, legal, educational, and cultural service; and nonprofit organizations. These figures do not
agree precisely with the nonresidential fixed investment data in gross national
product estimates, mainly because those data include investment by farmers,
professionals, nonprofit institutions, and real estate firms, and certain outlays
charged to current account.
a Includes trade, service, construction, finance, and insurance.

10

Starts c f plant
and equtipment
proj€;cts 3

for plan t and equ ipment

2. 16
2.42
2. 74
3. 18
3.79
4. 00

4.61

4. 93
5. 72
6. 03
6.66
7.57
7.45

15. 30
17. 00
18. 71
20. 55
20. 14
22. 28

13. 64
14. 30
14. 19
15. 32
16.40

I

20. 99
21. 36
22. 67
22. 73

23. 14

Manufacturing

Public
utilities

28. 00
35. 21
47.57
52.49
48. 24
51. 05

22. 22
28.60
38. 13
45. 74
34. 50
29. 66

13. 22
12. 88
15.26
15. 15
19.81

7. 54
10. 22
9. 76
3.79
10. 23

'

1

39. 09
40. 76

* Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures duringgiven period.
*Expenditures estimates based on expected capital expenditures as reported bj
business in October-December 1977.
NOTE.—Annual total is the sum of unadjusted quarterly totals.
Estimates (as noted in footnote 4) include adjustments when necessary for systematic biases in expectations data.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE
Seasonally adjusted employment grew by 395,000 in December, bringing the increase in unadjusted civilian employment to 4.1 million since the end of 1976. Unemployment declined sharply in December—by 353,000.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
100

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

100

t _ I 1 . 1 t j t 1 1 M I M. 1 ! H 1 1_ t l t
I I 1
H j
_
, I M

1.111.1 I I I t } l

1972

1 1 1 1 I f 1 I.. t t l . l .

'

1973 *

I |.) \ I I I 1 I 1J

]

1974

I t I I I I. t I I t I

*

1975

*16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

I i M i t i i > i i| i 11
1976'1977
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over]

Period

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977

Noninstitutional
population

148,
150,
153,
156,
158,

Civilian Unememploy- ployment
ment

263 84, 409
827 85, 935
449 84, 783
048 87, 485
559 90, 546
U nadjusted

4,
5,
7,
7,
6,

Total
labor
Civilian
force
(includ- labor
force
ing
Armed
Forces)

Unempl oyment

C ivilian e mployrriei it

N onagri cultural
Total

304
076
830
288
855

91, 040
93, 240
94, 793
96, 917
99, 534

88, 714
91, 011
92, 613
94, 773
97,401

'
84,
85,
84,
87,
90,

409
935
783
485
546

Labor
force
participation
rate
(per-2
cent)

Total

15
weeks
and
over

3, 452 80, 957
2, 311
3,492 82, 443
2, 70U
3, 490
3, 380 81, 403
3,272
3, 297 84, 188
3,297
3, 244 87, 302
Seascjnally adj usted

4, 304
5,076
7,830
7,288
6, 855

812
937
2, 483
2, 339
1,911

61.4
61. 8
61.8
62. 1
62. 8

Agricultural

Total

Part-time
for economic
reasons l

1976: Dec_ 157, 176

88, 494

7, 022

98, 082

95. 936

88. 446

3,240

85, 206

3, 392

7,490

2, 462

62. 4

157, 381
157, 584
157, 782
157, 086
1 58, 228
158, 456
158, 682
158, 899
159, 114
159, 334
159,522
159, 736

86, 856
87, 231
88,215
89, 258
90, 042
91, 682
92, 372
92, 315
91, 247
92, 230
92, 473
92,623

7, 848 97, 852
8, 109 98, 457
7, 556 98, 761
6, 568 98, 878
6, 151 99, 289
7, 453 99, 681
6,941 99, 442
6, 757 99, 751
6, 437 99, 887
6,221 100, 205
6,346 101, 009
5, 880 101, 048

95, 719
96, 320
96, 623
96, 746
97, 161
97, 552
97, 307
97, 614
97, 756
98, 071
98, 877
98, 919

88, 653
89, 047
89, 478
89, 877
90, 267
90, 648
90, 588
90, 793
91, 088
91, 383
92, 214
92, 609

3, 121
3, 164
3, 179
3,256
3,335
3, 330
3,206
3,224
3, 199
3,243
3,357
3, 323

85, 532
85, 883
86, 299
86, 621
86, 932
87, 318
87, 382
87, 569
87, 889
88, 140
88, 857
89, 286

3,243
3,441
3,271
3, 192
3, 268
3, 390
3,464
3,253
3,306
3, 263
3, 285
3,220

7,066
7,273
7, 145
6,869
6, 894
6, 904
6, 719
6, 821
6, 668
6, 688
6,663
6,310

2,244
2, 168
2,008
1,828
1,869
1,788
1,824
1, 800
1, 834
1,848
1,829
1,797

62.2
62. 5
62. 6
62. 6
62. 8
62. 9
62. 7
62.8
62.8
62.9
63.3
63.3

1977: Jan..
Feb..
Mar..
AprMay.
June..
July.
Aug..
Sept..
Oct..
Nov.
,
Dec..
Persons
2

at work in nonagricultural industries.
Total labor force as percent of nomnstitutionai population 16 years of age and
over.




NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1973.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

11

SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate declined to a 3 year low of 6.4 percent in December/ and the newly
revised seasonal adjustments now show a steadier decline throughout the year in the unemployment rate than earlier
indicated.
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

•PERCENT* fseA'SONAUY ADJUSTED)

15

'BLACK
AND OTHER ,

/!

10

A^

.V~V%4/«v'

1977

1973

0973

1976

*UNEMPIOYMEKT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN IABOR FORCE JN GROUP SPECIFIiD.
SOURCEi DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

I

1977

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

1973
,
...
1974
_
... 1975.
. , ...
1976
.
.
1977
1976: Dec
1977: Jan___
Feb...
Mar_
Apr.
"
._
May__
„'__
June
„ ._'
July.....
.__
Aug
Sept
Oct...
Nov_
' - -«
Dec

Total
(all
civilian
workers)
4.9
5.6
8.5
7.7
7.0
7.8
7.4
7,6
7.4
7. 1
7. 1
7, 1
6. 9
7. 0
6.8
6.8
6.7
6.4

Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group)
]3y select ed grouj;)S
By race
By s>ex and iige
Men Women Both
20
20
sexes
years years 16-19
and
and
years
over
over
3.2
3.8
6.7
5.9
5. 2
6. 1
5.8
5.9
5.6
5.2
5.3
5.1
5.1
5. 1
4.7
5.0
4.7
4,6

4.8
5. 5
8. 0
7.4
7.0
7,4
6. 9
7.2
7.2
7.0
6.9
7.2
6. 9
7. 1
6.9
6.8
6.9
6.6

14. 5
16. 0
19. 9
19. 0
17.7
19. 3
18.4
18.6
18. 7
18. 2
18. 1
18.0
17.3
17. 3
18. 3
17. 3
17.2
15.6

1
Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part-time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours.

12



White

4. 3
5.0
7.8
7.0
6.2
7.0
6.7
6.8
6.6
6.4
6.3
6.3
6. 1
6. 1
6.0
6.0
5.9
5.5

ExpeBlack rienced House- Fullwage
time
and
hold
and
other salary heads workers
workers
8.9
4. 5
2. 9
4.3
5.3
9. 9
3.3
5. 1
13.9
8.2
5. 8
8. 1
5. 1
13. 1
7.3
7.3
13. 1
4.5
6.6
6. 5
13.5
7.4
5. 1
7.4
12.6
7.0
4.9
6.9
7.1
49
13.1
6.9
6.9
4.7
6.8
12.9
12. 3
6.6
4.5
6.6
4, 5
12. 9
6.7
6. 6
13.2
6.5
4.3
6. 5
6.4
4.4
13. 3
6. 5
14. 3
4.5
6. 5
6. 6
6.3
13. 1
4.4
6.4
6.5
4.4
13. 7
6. 4
13. 7
4.2
6. 3
6.2
12.7
6.0
3.9
5.9

NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1973.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Parttime
workers
7.9
8.6
10. 3
10. 1
9.8
9.9
10. 1
10. 6
10. 9
9.9
9.9
10.5
9.3
9.0
9.7
9. 6
9.6
8.9

Labor
force
time
lost
(per- 1
cent)
5.2
6. 1
9. 1
8.3
7.6
8.4
8. 1
8.0
7.8
7.4
7.6
7.6
7.5
7. 6
7.4
7. 4
7.3
7.0

SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS
The decrease of 353,000 in seasonally adjusted unemployment in December was accompanied by a decline in the
proportion of job losers and new entrants and an increase in job leavers and reentrants.
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*
REASON FbR UNEMPLOYMENT

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*

DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT
60

40

40

REENTRANTS

27 WEEKS
OVER

20

20
JOB LEAVERS

\

JNEW ENTRANTS

1975

1976

'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

T Tn Am —
VJ IlCJJLl
Tilov—
t*i%JJ

Period

ment
(thousands)

1973
1974_
1975
1976
1977 >.
1976: Dec..
1977: Jan..
Feb_.
Mar.
Apr-.
May_
JuneJuly.
Aug..
Sept«
Oct..
Nov.
Dec*_

4, 304
5,076
7, 830
7,288
6,855
7,490
7, 066
7,273
7, 145
6, 869
6,894
6, 904
6,719
6,821
6, 668
6, 688
6, 663
6,310

15-26
WEEKS

1977

1978

1975

1976

1977

1978

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Pereerit distrit ution of unemPerceiit distrilmtion of unem- otate p
rjA_j._ _
1
rograms Insured Special
plo yment b y durati on J
unemPi oyment by reasoin
ployunemment,
ployall
ment
27 Insured
New
Less
regular benefit3
Job
Job
Reen5-14
15-26
en- than 5 weeks weeks weeks unem- Initial
proclaims
losers leavers trants trants weeks
and
ploy- claims
grams J (unadover
ment
(unad- justed)
justed)
We<skly avei•age, thou sands
38. 7
15.7
30.7
14.9
7.8 1, 632
51. 0
11. 0
30. 1
246
1, 793
43.4
14.9
28.4
13.3
11. 1
50.6
7.3 2,262
31.0
363
2, 558
55.4
10.4
23.8
10.4
15.2 3,992
37. 0
16.5
31.3
478
4,943
1, 173
12. 2
49.8
12. 1
26.0
38. 3
13. 8
18. 3 2, 968
382
29.6
3, 822
1, 152
45. 3
13.0
28. 1
13,7
41. 7
13. 1
14.8 2, 473
30.5
375
3, 112
572
49. 8
11.4
26. 0
12. 8
37. 4
14. S
17. 6 2,915
30.2
365
3,884
903
46. 0
13. 1
27.9
17. 1 2, 823
39.0
14. 3
12. 9
29. 6
407
4,442
823
47.4
12. 2
13.0
27.3
39. 9
13. 4
16. 9 2,822
29. 9
430
4,448
911
45. 1
12. 9
12. 1
28. 1
41. 5
14. 0
16. 2 2, 636
30.2
344
3,972
901
44.2
12. 6
28.9
14.3
44. 9
16. 4 2, 565
10. 6
374
28.1
3,506
784
45.0
13.3
41. I
28. 7
13. 0
12. 0
15. 6 2, 565
383
3, 105
31. 4
538
43.0
13.6
27.7
15. 7
44. 5
11. 9
13. 9 2,568
372
2, 939
29. 6
484
45. 3
12. 5
14.5
27. 7
42. 1
13. 2
14. 1 2, 626
385
3, 065
30. 6
540
46. 3
12. 9
27. 1
13.7
41.5
12. 6 2,733
13. 5
385
2, 751
32. 4
535
12. 9
45. 3
27.9
13. 9
41. 1
13. 6
13.7 2,664
368
2,643
412
31. 8
45. 5
13. 1
28.6
12. 8
41. 4
13. 6
13.7 2, 624
361
2, 649
364
31. 3
44. 7
13.3
28.5
13. 6
42. 4
13.9
13.3 2, 602
354
2,853
315
30. 3
43. 4
13. 9
29.8
13. 0
41.3
14.8
13. 5 2, 516
346
3, 225
259
30. 4

1
Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding.
NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1973.
'Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico), ex-serviceSource: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment
men (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad ( R R ) programs. Also includes
and Training Administration).
Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include FSB (Federal
supplemental benefits) and SUA (special unemployment assistance).
8
FSB and SUA. These programs started January 1975 and regular reporting
began March 1975.




13

NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 217,000 in December. The increase since December 1976 was 3.1
million. The largest employment gains over the year were in services, wholesale and retail trade, and durable goods
manufacturing.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
!

901

WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE

ALL NONAGRICULTURAL
ESTABLISHMENTS

70

60

-SERVICE-PRODUCING"
INDUSTRIES
MANUFACTURING

SO

..,.**'T'*—-»•/

40

18
JTI M I I » I I I I I I I I I I I M I I I I I 1 I I I I II I I 1 I t I I I I I I 1 1 1 I I M M I I II M II

30

-GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES

*-*•*" "'" "
„*,,«»...„«..*«•

"-71

P=—

CONTRACT C ONSTRUCTIO S|

*«»«!«„

20
11 M 11

f! 1 I 1 1 ! M 1 1 I ! I 1 1 I I II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
I

1973

1974

1975

1977

1976

1973

1974

1975

•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 IV

1977

1976

COUNCIL OF •CONOMIC ADVISERS
i

1

[Thousands of wage and salary workers; seasonally adjusted]

Croods-pr<educing i ndustrie 5
Period

Total
nonagricultural
employment

1973... ..__

1974
1975
1976
1977 »
1976: Dec_.

1977: Jan__.

Feb..
Mar__
Apr..
May.

June.
July..

Aug..

Sept..

Oct..

Nov p _
Dec*

76, 896
78, 413
77, 051
79, 443
82, 140
80, 370
80, 574
80, 870
81, 331
81, 620
81, 837
82, 157
82, 407
82, 474
82, 763
82, 902
83, 222
83, 439

Total 2

24, 727
24, 697
22, 603
23, 332
24, 232
23, 528
23, 585
23, 763
24, 017
24, 176
24, 264
24, 355
24, 412
24, 305
24, 360
24, 436
24,526
24, 553

Contract
construction
4, 015
3, 957
3, 512
3, 594
3,845
3, 605
3,549
3,661
3,759
3, 830
3,853
3,888
3,913
3,893
3,892
3, 9il
3,946
3,964

Service-pi oducing industri<28

Msmufaetuj ring

Non-

Total

20, 068
20, 046
18, 347
18, 956
19, 555
19, 114
19, 219
19, 278
19,417
19, 499
19, 566
19, 611
19, 666
19, 594
19, 612
19, 666
19, 717
19, 876

Durable
durable
goods goods

11, 839
11, 895
10, 679
11, 026
11, 480
11, 165
11, 236
11, 261
11, 373
11, 404
11, 451
11, 484
11, 548
11, 527
11, 545
11, 604
11, 627
11, 746

8,229
8, 151
7,668
7,930
8,075
7,949
7,983
8,017
8,044
8,095
8, 115
8, 127
8,118
8, 067
8,067
8,062
8,090
8, 130

1
Includes all full- and part-time wage an<3 salary workers in nonagricultural
establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period
which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel oi the Armed Forces. Total derived from
this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the
civilian labor force, shown on p, 11, which include proprietors, self-employed
persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they

14



Total

52, 169
53, 715
54, 448
56, 111
57, 909
56, 842
56, 989
57, 107
57, 314
57, 444
57, 573
57, 802
57, 995
58, 169
58, 403
58, 466
58, 696
58, 886

TransFinance,
Gover nment
porta- Whole- insursale
tion
ance,
and
State
and
and Services
retail
Federal and
public trade
real
local
utilities
estate
4,644
4,696
4,498
4,509
4, 590

4, 549
4,544
4, 553
4,563
4, 575
4, 586
4, 588
4, 572
4, 581
4,616
4,610
4,630
4,660

16, 674
17, 017
17, 000
17, 694
18, 281
17, 925
17, 994
18, 039
18, 118
18, 175
18, 202
18, 264
18, 322
18,377
18, 431
18, 414
18, 486
18, 511

4,091
4,208
4,223
4,316
4,509
4,398
4,419
4,431
4,453
4,463
4,481
4,494
4,506
4, 524
4,545
4, 572
4,600
4,618

13, 021
13, 617
14, 006
14, 644
15, 334
14, 936
15, 010
15, 068
15, 149
15, 182
15, 197
15, 260
15, 372
15, 448
15, 482
15, 533
15, 601
15, 676

2, 663
2,724
2,748
2,733
2,727
2,720
2, 721
2,721
2,725
2, 721
2, 725
2, 735
2, 721
2, 732
2, 728
2, 730
2, 727
2, 722

11, 075
11, 453
11, 973
12, 215
12, 468
12, 314
12, 301
12, 295
12, 306
12, 328
12, 382
12, 461
12, 502
12, 507
12, 601
12, 607
12, 652
12, 699

are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on a sample
of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based ou
reports from employing establishments.
2
Includes mining, not shown separately.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NON&GRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Averagre gross
hourly <earnings

Aver age weekly hours
Total
private
nonagricultural J

Period

Total

Percent cllange from
a year earlier 4

Index, 1<£67=100
Manufacturing

Overtime

Total
private
nonagricultural l

Manufo icturing

Adjusted h ourly earnin gs index—1<Dtal private
nonagricCultural 3

Current
dollars

1967
dollars 3

Current
dollars

1967
dollars

37.7
37. 1
37. 0
37. 1
37. 1
36.6
36. 1
36. 2
36. 1

40.6
39. 8
39.9
40. 6
40.7
40. 0
39. 4
40. 0
40.3

3.6
3. 0
2. 9
3. 5
3. 8
3. 2
2.6
3.1
3.4

$3.04
3. 22
3. 44
3. 67
3.92
4.22
4. 54
4.87
5. 24

$3. 19
3. 36
3. 57
3. 81
4. 08
4.41
4. 81
5. 19
5, 63

113.2
120.7
129.2
137.7
146.5
158.5
172.5
185.0
198.5

103. 1
103.8
106.5
109. 9
110.0
107.3
107.0
108. 5
109. 4

6. 6
6. 6
7.0
6.6
6.4
8.2
8.8
7; 2
7.3

1.2
.7
2.6
3.2
.1
-2. 5
—.3
1.4
.8

1976: Dec

36.2

40. 0

3.2

5. 02

5. 38

190. 7

109. 5

6.9

2. 0

1977: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr.
May
June_ _ _
July
Aug__
_
Sept _ _ _
Oct____
Nov v»_
Dec

35. 8
36.2
36.2
36.2
36. 3
36.2
36. 1
36.0
36.0
36. 2
36. 1
36.0

39.5
40.3
40.4
40. 3
40.4
40.5
40. 2
40. 3
40. 3
40.4
40.5
40. 3

3.2
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.3
3. 5
3. 5
3.4

5.07
5. 10
5. 13
5. 17
5. 20
5. 22
5. 27
5,28
5. 32
5. 38
5.39
5.41

5. 43
5.45
5. 49
5. 53
5. 57
5.61
5. 66
5. 68
5. 73
5. 79
5. 81
5. 82

192.6
193.2
194. 2
195. 6
196.4
197. 4
199. 4
199.9
201.2
203.3
204.0
204.8

109. 7
109. 0
108.8
108. 8
108. 6
108. 5
109. 2
109. 1
109.5
110.3
110. 1
110.2

7.2
7.0
7.0
7.2
7.0
7. 1
7.5
7. 1
7.3
7.9
7.5
7.4

2.0
1.0
.6
.4
.2
.3
.7
.4
.7
1.3
.7
.6

1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977*

-

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS—PRIVATE NON&GRICULTUR&II INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Average gross weekly earnings
Total private nonagricu Ltural »

Period

Current
dollars

1969 __
1970
1971__
1972
1973___
1974 _
1975__ _
1976
1977*-. _
1976: Dec._
1977: Jan..
Feb
Mar
Apr__
May_
June.
July
Aug _ _ _
Sept _
Oct
Nov »
Dec*.,

_ _
_

_
_ _

_ _
_ _
_

_

$114. 61
119. 46
127. 28
136. 16
145. 43
154. 45
163. 89
176. 29
189. 16
181. 72
181. 51
184. 62
185. 71
187. 15
188. 76
188. 96
190. 25
190. 08
191. 52
194. 76
194. 58
194. 76

1967
dollars s
$104. 38
102. 72
104. 93
108. 67
109. 26
104. 57
101. 67
103. 40
104. 22
104. 32
103. 37
104. 13
104. 10
104. 09
104. 34
103. 88
104. 19
103. 76
104. 20
105. 68
105. 06
104. 77

Manufacturing
.

$129. 51
133. 73
142. 44
154. 69
166. 06
176. 40
189. 51
207. 60
226. 89
215. 20
214. 49
219. 64
221. 80
222. 86
225. 03
227. 21
227. 53
228. 90
230. 92
233. 92
235. 31
234. 55

$181. 54
195. 45
211. 67
222. 51
235. 69
249. 08
265. 35
284. 93
295. 87
291. 28
280. 37
296. 25
294. 25
296. 54
298. 08
295. 87
297. 41
294. 92
294. 48
300. 66
301. 10
298. 21

Percent chimge from a
year e arlier,
total priifate nonagricuiltural *
Current
dollars

Current dollar,3

1
Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.
2 Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing.
3
Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index.
< Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places.
22-454°—78
3




Contract
construction

Wholesale
and retail
trade

$90. 78
95.66
100. 39
105. 65
111. 04
118. 33
126. 75
133. 39
142. 52
138. 10
138. 20
139. 28
140. 28
141. 28
142. 04
141. 86
143. 19
143. 09
143. 76
146. 40
145. 85
146. 74

6.4
4. 2
6. 5
7.0
6.8
6.2
6. 1
7.6
7.3
6.7
5. 6
7. 1
7.7
8.3
7. 5
7. 6
7.7
7.3
8. 1
8.4
7.9
7.2

1967
dollars
1. 0
— 1. 6
2. 2
3. 6
.5
-4.3
-2. 8
1.7
.8
1.8
.4
1. 0
1. 2
1. 5
.7
.7
1. 0
.6
1.4
1.8
1.1
.4

* Based on unadjusted data.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

15

PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, PRIVATE BUSINESS ECONOMY
Hours of all
pergions2

Out]put 1

Output per hour
of all i>ersons

Compemsation
per 1 lour 3

Unit labor
COsts

ImpJicjit price
defla tor *

PriNonPriNonNonPriNonPrivate NonPrivate NonPrivate
farm
farm
vate
farm
farm
vate
farm
farm
business business business business business business business business vate
business business business business
sector
sector
sector
sector
sector sector sector sector sector sector sector
sector

Period

1967 == 100; qua rterly dat a seasonsilly adjuslbed
1966
1967
1968
1969

98.0
100.0
105. 1

ioas

98. 1
100.0
105.4
108.6

100. 3
100. 0
101. 7
104.5

100.0
100. 0
102. 1
105. 3

97.8
100. 0
103. 3
103. 7

98. 1
100. 0
103. 2
103. 1

947
100. 0
107.6
115. 1

94. 5
100. 0
107. 3
1143

96.8
100. 0
104 1
111.0

96.4
100.0
103.9
110.9

97.2
100. 0
103.9
108.8

96.8
100.0
104 0
108.7

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974— - _ _
1975___
1976
1977 »_
1975: I_. —
II
III....
IV

107.4
110.3
117.6
124. 5
121. 5

107.4
110.3
117.9
125.0
121. 9

104.5
107.8
111.0
113. 1
109.9
111.8
116. 5
119. 3
108.9
111.7
113. 8
113. 3

123.3
131.5
138.9
150. 3
1643

1140
119.2
122.9
128.0
141. 5

161.7
160. 4
159. 1
163. 0

158.0
165.6
1742
1542
156. 5
159.4
161.6

1976: I
II
III
IV

124.9
126.7
127. 7
128.4

112.9
1145
115. 2
114 6

180.2
196. 5
213. 6
176.2
179.2
181. 1
1846
190. 5
194 5
198.6
202. 7

118. 1
122.2
125. 5
133. 0
149.8
161. 7
168. 9
179.7
162.0
160.9
160. 0
163.9

113.9
118.9
123. 2
130.3
143. 1

109.9
114 3
116. 7

121. 9
129. 9
137. 4
148. 1
162.0
177.6
193. 1
209.6
173.2
176. 3
179. 1
181. 9

118.1
121.9
125. 2
132. 9
149.5

na7

104. 0
103.7
107.6
112. 2
112.7
108. 1
111. 4
115. 7
107.8
106. 8
107. 7
109. 7
111. 0
111.2
111.4
112. 3

103. 3
106.3
109.5
111.4
108. 1

118. 7
126.9
134.6
115. 1
117.2
120.6
121.8

102.8
102.3
106.0
110. 1
110.6
106. 1
108. 9
112,8

131. 3
134.0
135.7
137.3

116. 1
116. 3
117.4
117.8

208. 4
211. 7
216.0
219. 7

165.6
167. 1
169.5
173. 3
176.0
178.9
180.5
183. 2

162.9
1648
166.5
168. 3

1977: I,
II
III
IV »__

165. 1
167. 1
169.4
173. 0
175.2
178.5
179. 7
182. 2

15&9
165.0
1740
153.4
155.6
158. 1
160.3
162. 1
163. 6
166.0
168. 1

170. 1
173. 1
175.4
177.7

169.6
172.7
175.6
177.7

127.4
134.9

115. 3
117. 1
120.6
121.8
125.2
127.2
128. 3
128.7
131.6
1345
136.0
137. 5

105.7
104.9
106. 0
107.5
108.2
108.9
109. 0
109.6
110. 4
113.0
112.9
113.9

113.4
115. 6
115.9
116.8

115.4
116.4
117.2
117. 2
118.9
118.6
120. 2
120. 6

106.9
109. 6
112. 0
111. 0

186. 9
191. 3
195.2
198. 7
2043
208. 1
211. 9
215.7

161. 1
168. 7
179.0

Perceiit change ; quarterlyf data at seasonal] y adjuste d annual rates

1966
1967
1968
1969-

5.5
2^0
5.1
3.0

6. 0
1.9
5.4
3.0

2.3
-. 3
1. 7
2.7

3.3
— .0
2. 1
3.2

3.2
2. 3
3. 3
.3

2.5
1.9
3.2
2

7.0
5.6
7.6
7.0

6.1
5.8
7.3
6. 5

3.7
3.3
41
6.6

3.4
3.8
3.9
6.6

3.2
2.9
3.9
47

2.9
3.3
40
45

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

-.9
2. 8
6. 6
5. 9
-2. 4
-2. 4
7.0
6.0

-1. 1
2.7
6.9
6.0
-2.5
-2.6
7.3
5.9

-1.6
—. 4
3.6
3. 9
.4

.7
3.2
2.9
1. 9
-2.8
1. 8
4. 2
2.4

-11.6
6.5
12. 5
4. 1

1.3
10. 6
7.7
-1. 9

13. 1
6.9
4.4
8. 1

6. 4
3. 2
2.7
6.2
12. 5
7.7
47
6. 1
11.7
-3. 3
-3. 0
10. 2

47
44
3.6
5.8
9.8
10.4
48
5. 1

-11.6
7.5
12.2
3. 9

6. 7
6. 6
5. 8
7.8
9. 4
9. 6
8. 7
8.5
12. 1
7.4
6. 5
6. 4

6.5
3.5
2.7
6.0
12. 7

1975: I
II
III
IV

10.9
-2.8
-2.2
10.0

49
4.5
3. 1
41
10. 5
10. 9
5. 1
5.5
14.2
5. 7
6.6
5.8

1976: I
II
III
IV

10.8
5. 9
3. 1
2.1

11.7
6.6
3.2
1.3

2. 8
2. 3
.3
2.2

11.4
9.7
8. 5
7. 3

5. 1
49
5.8
8. 6

43
3.8
5.7
9.4

9. 5
8. 8
4.8
45

3.3
9.5
2
3.4

7.8
3. 5
2.8
^
6. 1
-1.0
5.4
1.4

13.3
8.6
8.7
8.5

9.6
8.5
5.2
4.8

4. 6
.8
.6
3. 3
4.2
7.9
.9
3.2

.2
2.9
3.0
1.7
-2.9
1. 6
41
2.0
1.0
10. 5
8. 9
-3.3
6.8
5.7
2.6
-1.9
5. 1
.8
3.8
1.2

7.2
6. 6
5. 7
8.2
9.4

-4. 1
2.7
3.6
-12.7
-2.8
4. 2
5. 9

-1.2
g
3.7
4. 3
.4
-4. 1
3. 1
3. 8
-12.5
-3.6
3.3
7.6

11.8
6.5
8.5
7.0

11.7
7.7
7.5
7.5

5. 4
7.6
2.9
5.6

6. 3
6.8
3.5
6.1

1975
1976
1977 »

—

1977: I
II
III
IV »...
1

Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars.
«Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in production, including
hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on
establishment data.
8
Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social
insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries,
and supplemental payments for the self-employed.

16



9. 6
9. 1
8.7

7.9
45
6.4

12.9
6.2
7.5
5.9
3.1
48
41
46
44
7.2
5.2
5.5

44
3.8
6.0
5. 3
3. 5
7.5
7.0
4.8

< Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.
NOTE.—Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original
data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes
shown here. Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1972.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

Industrial production increased 0.2 percent in December following gains of 0.4 percent in November and 0.2 percent
in October. The December increase in the index would have been twice as large if it were not for the nearly 50
percent cut in bituminous output due to the coal strike.
INDEX, 1967«100* (RATIO SCALE)
180
UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION

INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE)
160

TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

160

140
UTILITIES

120

>*••*«» 4

r \*

MINING

100

1974

1973

1975

1976

1977

PERCENT (RATIQ SCALE)
100

MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE
90

SO

120

70
100

1973

1974

1976

1975

1973

1977

1977

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

Period

1967 proportion
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977*
1976: Dec
1977: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
_
July
Aug
Sept
Oct__ .
Nov P
Dec* _

Total iiidustrial
produ ction
Percent
Index, change
1967=
from
100
year
earlier
100. 00
9. 2
119. 7
8.4
129. 8
—.4
129. 3
-8.9
117.8
10.2
129.8
5.6
137. 1
133.0
132. 3
133.2
135. 3
136. 1
137. 0
137. 8
138. 7
138. 1
138. 5
138. 8
139. 3
139. 6

6.9
5. 1
4.4
5. 5
5. 7
5.6
6.2
6. 1
5.2
6.0
6. 6
5.9
5.0

COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Seasonally adjusted]
Indust ry produ ction indeixes, 1967 = 100
Miinufacturi ng
Total

Durable

Nondurable

Mining

Utilities

87.95
118. 9
129.8
129.4
116.3
129. 5
137. 1

61. 98
113.7
127. 1
125. 7
109, 3
121. 7
129. 4

85.97
126.5
133.8
134.6
126. 4
140. 9
148. 1

6. 36
113. 1
114. 7
115. 3
112. 8
114. 2
117. 8

5. 69
139.4
145.4
143.7
146. 0
151.0
156.8

83. 1
87.5
84. 2
73.6
80.2
82.4

88.0
92. 4
87.7
73.6
80.4
81.9

83
86
83
77
81

91.8
97.1
93.0
80.4
87.5
90. 2

132.5
131. 6
132. 6
135. 1
135. 8
137. 1
137. 8
138. 5
138. 6
139.0
139.2
139.6
140.4

125. 0
123. 4
124. 0
126. 8
128. 0
129. 3
130. 5
131. 6
131. 3
131. 7
132. 3
132. 2
133.0

143. 3
143.4
145. 3
147. 0
147.0
148. 5
148. 4
148. 6
149. 4
149. 5
149. 4
150. 3
151. 1

115. 4
112.8
116. 3
120. 6
119. 2
119. 5
122. 8
119. 8
115. 4
118. 0
119. 1
118.3
113.4

157.9
163.8
160. 3
154.8
154. 0
156.7
156. 8
161. 4
155.7
154. 1
153.5
155. 7
157. 4

81. 2
80.4
80. 9
82. 1
82. 3
82. 8
83. 0
83. 1
82.9
82.9
82.8
82.8
83.0

80.2
79.4
80.2
81.6
82. 1
82.7
83.0
82.9
82.0
82. 0
82. 3
82. 4
82. 1

81

87. 7

83

88. 4

84

90. 4

82

90, 9

» Output as percent of capacity.
» Annual data are averages of four monthly indexes.
* Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Annual data are averages of
quarterly data.




Manuf acturing <japacity titilization
rate, p<3rcent *
Federal Reserve
sen es
WharComTotal
merce
ton
Mate- series 2 series 3
manurials
facturing

91. 0

Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of
Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), and Wharton School of Finance.

17

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND
SELECTED MANUFACTURES
[1967=100, seasonally adjusted]
Prod uets
Final p roducts
Equip ment

Cortsumer go ods

Period
Total

NonDurable durable
goods
goods

Total
1967 proportion

47.82

1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1976: Dec
___ ___
1977: Jan
Feb
Mar
—
Apr
- _
May
__ - _
June _ _ _ _
_ _
July
Aug_ _ __
Sept
Get
Nov *
Dee »_

109.6
105. 3
106. 3
115.7
124. 4
125. 1
118.2
127.2
131. 5
130.8
131. 6
133.3
134. 1
134. 7
135.4
136. 8
136. 3
136. 8
136. 6
137.0
137. 6

i
!
!
1!
!

27. 68
109.8
109. 0
114. 7
124.4
131. 5
128.9
124. 0
136.2
141. 3
139. 9
140. 5
142.9
142. 9
143. 1
143.8
145. 4
144. 7
144. 9
145.2
145.7
146. 2

IntermLediate
prod ucts

Total

Business

Materials

Construction
supplies

Total

Supplementary
group:
Energy
total

7. 89

19. 79

20. 14

12.- €S

12.89

e. 42

39. 29

12. 23

115.0
106. 1
118.8
133. 8
146. 2
135.3
121.4
141.4
150.5
145.4
146. 1
152.4
151. 5
152.2
155.8
158.0
154. 7
155. 6
157.2
155.6
155. 9

107.7
110. 1
113. 1
120. 6
125. 6
126.3
125. 1
134, 1
137.6
137.7
138.3
139. 1
139. 4
139. 5
139. 1
140.3
140.6
140.7
140. 5
141. 6
142. 2

109. 3
100. 1
94.7
103.8
114.5
120.0
110. 2
114.6
118. 0
118.4
119.2
12U 0
122. 1
123. 2
124. 1
124. 8
124. 9
125. 6
124.9
125. 3
126. 0

112.5
107. 0
104. 1
118. 0
134. 2
142. 4
128. 2
136.3
142.3
142.3
143.5
144. 8
147. 1
148. 9
150. 1
151.2
151. 1
152. 1
152. 3
152. 7
153. 3

112.9
112.9
116. 7
126. 5
137. 2
135. 3
123. 1
137.2
140.5
142.2
141. 6
141. 8
142. 3
143. 5
144. 7
146.3
146. 1
146.5
147. 0
147.9
149. 2

112. 3
111. 0
116. 8
128. 4
139. 8
134. 5
116.3
132. 6
135. 5
136.2
135.6
136.4
137.2
138.7
139. 9
141.2
141. 7
143.2
144.4
146.0
147. 1

112. 5
109. 2
111. 3
122. 3
133. 9
132.4
115. 5
130. 6
132. 0
131. 1
132.7
135. 5
136.5
137.8
138.7
138.9
137.6
137.9
138. 8
139.2
139. 1

111. 1
117.0
119. 5
125. 2
128. 3
125. 5
125. 5
128.8
133.3
134. 1
132. 9
132. 3
132. 1
132. 5
133.5
135.6
131.4
132. 5
132.8
132. 6
130. 1

[1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted]
Duirable mjmufaetu res

Primaryr metals

Nontrical
machinery

Electrical
machinery

Non durable manufaci bures

Transp<srtation
equip ment

Iron
and
steel

Fabricated
metal
products

6.57
113.8
106.6
100.2
112. 1
126.7
123. 1
96.4
- 108.9

4. 21
112. 6
104. 7
96. 1
107. 1
122. 3
119. 8
95.8
104.9

9. 15
109. 3
104. 4
100. 2
116. 0
133. 7
140. 1
125. 1
135.0

8.05

9. 27

4.60

107. 9
102. 4
103. 5
112. 1
124. 7
124. 2
109. 9
123.3

111.9
108. 1
107.7
122. 2
143. 1
143. 8
116. 5
131.6

108.4
89.5
97. 9
108. 2
118. 3
108. 7
97.4
110. 6

116. 5
92. 3
118. 6
135.8
148. 8
128. 2
111. 1
140.7

1.64
107.9
105. 6
113. 8
120. 8
126. 0
116. 2
107.6
125. 1

S.S1
106. 7
101. 4
104. 7
109.4
117.3
114. 3
107. 6
122.2

4. 72
107.4
107. 0
107. 1
112.7
118. 2
118. 2
113. 3
120. 6

7. 74
118.4
120.4
125.9
143.6
154.5
159. 4
147. 2
169. 3

106. 1
108. 9
112. 8
116.8
120. 9
124. 0
123.4
132.3

1976: Dee

101.5

93.4

128. 1

141. 5

135. 1

117.4

155. 0

128. 1

124.9

123.0

173. 1

132.9

1977: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
_ _
May
June __ _ _
July
Aug_
_ _„
Sept _

100.8
100.2
108. 3
112. 2
117. 1
114. 7
114.4
112.5
109. 0
113. 7
111. 9
111. 2

89. 7
91. 3
97. 9
103. 9
111. 0
109. 2
110. 9
110.6
104. 6
108. 1
105. 6

125. 7
125. 8
127. 5
127.6
128. 2
130.8
132.0
134. 0
133. 6
134. 4
135.2
136. 0

139. 9
139. 8
139. 8
142. 9
142. 6
144. 0
145.7
145. 2
147. 4
148. 2
148. 9
150. 4

134.0
137. 6
137. 6
139. 6
141. 8
142. 6
143.6
143. 9
144. 6
144. 2
145. 1
146. 6

113.5
113.4
120. 5
119. 8
120. 3
123. 7
125.6
124. 3
125. 5
124. 1
121. 9
122. 2

145. 5
145.4
161.2
158. 1
157. 7
163.2
166.2
164.4
165. 6
167. 9
163. 0
161. 9

132. 7
132.2
132. 1
130. 6
133.0
132.4
132.9
131. 8
137. 1
136. 2
137.4

123.
124.
122.
121.
123.
122.
121.
124.
127.
129.

124.7
122. 4
124. 8
123. 4
124.4
124. 1
124. 9
125. 0
124. 2
124. 8
124. 7
126.5

172.2
174.9
180. 0
180.6
182.8
183.5
182.6
182. 6
181. 3
180. 8
183. 0

134.2
136.4
138. 7
138. 0
138. 3
136.9
138.3
139. 3
138. 3
137. 6
138. 4

Period
Total

1 967 proportion

1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976

__

Oct

Nov *__
Dee v

5.98

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Kesei ve System.

18




Total

Motor
vehicles
and
parts

Lumber
and
products

Ar\
Apparel
products

0
4
2
4
5
1
1
1
7
2

Print- Cheming
icals
and
and
pubprodlishing ucts

Foods

8. 75

NEW CONSTRUCTION
Construction contracts 2

Private
Period

Total new
construction
expenditures

Resid ential
Total

Total

J

Commercial and
industrial

New
housing

Otker

Federal,
State,
and
local

CommerTotal value cial and
industrial
index
(1967= floor space
100)
(millions of
square feet)

Bil lions of dollars

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977 »

110.0
124. 1
137.9
138. 5
134.3
147. 5
170.7

80.1
93.9
105.4
100.2
93. 6
109.5
133.7

43.3
54. 3
59. 7
50.4
46.5
60.5
81.1

17.0
18. 1
21. 7
23. 8
20. 8
19. 9
21. 8

35. 1
44.9
50. 1
40. 6
34.4
47.3
65. 1

19.8
21.5

24. 0
25. 9
26.3
29. 0
30. 8

29.9
30.2
32. 5
38.3
40. 7
38. 0
37.0

30. 1
30. 7
30.9
31. 5
30. 9
30. 7
30.4
30. 4
30. 2
30.2
30. 8
31. 0
31. 4
32. 2

34.9
34. 3
32. 0
34. 5
35.4
36.2
38. 4
39.4
39.2
38.2
39. 3
37. 7
35. 6
36.2

Seasonalh/ adjusted atinual rates
1976: Nov _ . _
Dee--- _ _
1977: Jan
Feb
Mar_
Apr
.
.
May__
June
_
July
Aug
Sept
Oct___
Nov__ _ _
Dec v

153.8
155. 4
148. 1
156.9
163.8
167. 5
172. 1
174. 6
173.0
172.0
175.9
177. 8
177.8
180. 3

119. 0
121.2
116.2
122.4
128.4
131.3
133. 7
135. 2
133.8
133. 8
136. 7
140. 1
142.2
144. 1

52. 7
54. 8
52. 1
58.3
62.2
63. 5
65.8
66. 0
65. 1
65. 1
66. 4
68. 8
70. 5
72.9

69. 6
71. 1
66.5
72. 1
76.7
79.5
82. 4
82. 5
80. 8
80. 7
82. 4
85. 7
87.7
89. 9

1
Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately.
2 F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and
beginning 1971 for floor space.

19. 3
19. 4
18.7
18.8
20.8
21. 1
20.9
22. 3
22.7
22.9
23. 5
23. 4
23. 1
21. 9

145.4
165.3
179.5
169. 7
167.9
199. 4
252. 2

727
854
1,010
840
555
592
738
Seasonally
Seasonally adjusted
adjusted
annual
rates
210
183
203
212
207
250
317
307
218
267
279
244
258
299

631
658
643
615
309
671
758
733
702
853
813
757
847
864

NOTE.—New construction expenditures data prior to 1973 not comparable with
later data.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.

NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES
[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]
I^ew private housing uni ts

Period

Units started, by type of str\icture
Total

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977 *> _

1 unit

1, 433. 6
2, 052. 2
2, 356. 6
2, 045. 3
1, 337. 7
1, 160. 4
1, 537. 5
1, 986. 4

812. 9
1, 151. 0
1,309. 2
1, 132. 0
888. 1
892.2
1, 162. 4
1, 451. 3

1, 889
1,384
1, 802
2, 089
1,880
1,937
1,897
2,083
2,029
2,065
2, 203
2, 121
2,295

1,324
1,006
1, 424
1,503
1, 413
1,455
1,389
1,437
1,453
1,523
1,562
1,543
1,605

2-4
units
84. 8
120. 3
141. 3
118. 3
68. 1
64.0
85. 9
122.0

5 or more
units
535. 9
780. 9
906. 2
795. 0
381. 6
204. 3
289. 2
413. 1

New priv ate homes
Units
authorized
1, 351. 5
1, 924. 6
2, 218. 9
1, 819. 5
1, 074. 4
939. 2
1, 296. 2
1, 680. 0

Units
completed

Homes
sold

Vacancy
rate for
Homes for
rental
sale at
housing
end ofl
units
period
(percent) 2

1, 418. 4
1, 706. 1
1, 971. 5
2, 013. 8
1, 691. 7
1, 296. 8
1, 362. 1

485
656
718
620
501
544
639

220
287
409
450
403
380
431

5.3
5. 4
5. 6
5.8
6. 2
6. 0
5. 6

1, 444
1,416
1,637
1,707
1,540
1,536
1,647
1, 671
1,699
1, 901
1, 624
1,789

808
827
893
867
775
774
805
694
825
882
868
843

431
431
434
435
441
441
444
453
467
468
477
481

5.3

Seasonally adjusted armual rates
1976: Dec
1977: Jan
Feb.
Mar_ _ _
Apr _
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oet».__
Nov v
Dec v 1
Seasonally adjusted.
J

Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter.




120
103
120
113
116
120
105
127
113
128
132
136
169

445
275
258
473
351
362
403
519
463
414
509
442
521

1,532
1, 333
1, 526
1, 687
1, 605
1, 615
1,678
1,639
1,772
1,695
1,850
1,893
1,858

5. 1
5. 3
5. 4

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

19

BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—TOTAL AND TRADE
Business inventories rose $1% billion in November and business sales increased 1 percent. According to the advance
survey, retail sales fell nearly % percent in December, following an increase of more than 1 percent in November.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALI)

400
350

tOTAC BUSINESS
INVENTORIES

300

250

•200
TOTAL BUSINESS
SALES

150

•100

1.20
1974

1975

1977

1978

1977

1976

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE; DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE

Who]esale

Total biusiness l

R€itail

CJ_i_
2
bales *

Inventories 8

Q

f

*

bales 3

Inventories *

DurTotal

Inventc)ry-sales
4

In ventories s

Sales 2
Period

1978

COUNCIL OF JECONOMIC ADVISERS

Non-

able durable
goods
goods
stores stores

DurTA+AI

of d oUars, s«sasonally adjuste;d
35, 823 34, 169 10, 827 23, 342 49, 867
39, 786 37, 422 12, 369 25, 054 54, 433
46, 254 41, 871 14, 091 27, 781 62, 691
56, 537 44, 543 13, 820 30, 723 70, 767
55, 113 48, 370 14, 907 33, 463 71, 031
61, 307 53, 542 17, 544 35, 998 78, 431
61, 049 54, 822 18, 098 36, 724 77, 988
61, 307 56, 685 19, 038 37, 647 78, 431
62, 123 55, 703 18, 860 36, 843 79, 458
63, 062 57, 291 19, 382 37, 909 79, 721
64, 300 57, 990 19, 863 38, 127 81, 196
65, 301 58, 142 19, 833 38, 309 81, 825
64, 838 58, 003 19, 516 38, 487 83, 025
64, 947 57, 825 19, 436 38, 389 84, 134
64,210 58, 552 19, 505 39, 047 85, 326
65, 095 59, 020 19, 984 39, 036 86, 650
66, 119 59, 014 19, 763 39, 251 87, 227
66, 209 60, 778 20, 895 39, 883 87, 462
66, 422 61, 482 20, 640 40, 842 88, 465
61, 048 20, 335 40, 713

Non-

able durable
goods
goods
stores stores

rat io

Total
business1

Retail

Milliens

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1976: Nov
Dec__
1977: Jan__
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July

Aug
Sept

Oct
Nov *
Dec *
1
5 The

116,351

130, 049
151, 647
174, 991
180, 229
200, 118
203, 731
212, 095
209, 950
215, 281
221, 903
. 221, 167
221, 327
222, 240
221, 255
223, 604
224, 242
227, 536
__ 229, 848

188, 180
202, 291
233, 340
285, 275
281, 837
306, 325
306, 151
306, 325
309, 063
311, 232
314, 875
317, 873
320, 492
322, 899
324, 107
326, 849
329, 510
330, 460
332, 049

26, 257
29, 584
36, 822
45, 836
44, 633
48, 408
48, 990
50, 935
50, 678
51, 857
52, 672
53, 385
53, 866
53, 735
53, 495
53, 208
53, 307
53, 639
55, 126

term "business" also includes manufacturing (see page 21).
Monthly average for year and total for month.
•Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted.
For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly
sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month.
4

20




21, 706
23, 929
27, 725
32, 007
31, 632
35, 067
34, 875
35, 067
35, 588
35, 516
36, 150
36, 094
36, 818
37, 104
38, 130
38, 577
38, 515
38, 752
39, 134

28, 161
30, 504
34, 966
38, 760
39, 399
43, 364
43, 113
43, 364
43, 870
44, 205
45, 046
45, 731
46, 207
47, 030
47, 196
48, 073
48, 712
48, 710
49, 331

1. 58
1.49
1.43
1.48
1.57
1.47
1.50
1.44
1. 47
1. 45
1.42
1. 44
1. 45
1. 45
1, 46
1.46
1.47
1.45
1.44

1. 39
1.38
1. 40
1. 49
1.45
1.41
1.42
1.38
1. 43
1.39
1.40
1.41
1.43
1. 45
1. 46
1.47
1.48
1.44
1.44

Source; Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau
of the Census).

MANUFACTURERS1 SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND NEW ORDERS
Manufacturers* new orders rose 4 percent in December and shipments rose 2% percent. Inventories were about
unchanged from their November level.
BILLIONS OF.DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALQ

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALI)

INVENTORIES
240
200
160
120
100

80

DURABLE GOODS

60

;^sw""

\

,„.•"*""

NONDURABLE GOODS

40

RATIO*.
d

2.20

INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO

200

40

1.20
1973

1975

1974

1976

1976

1973

1977

^SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCEs DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1977

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

1 Manufacturers' slu pmentsl Manufacturers* inventories2
1

Manui"aeturers' new orelers1
ManufacManu- turers*
facCapital Nonimvengoods durable turers' toryunfilled shipindus- goods
orders3 ments
tries,
nonratio 4
defense

DurabJ e goods
Period

Total

NonDurable durable
goods
goods

Total

NonDurable durable
goods
goods

Total
Total

55, 925
63, 042
72, 954
84, 612
87, 226
98, 168
110, 560

29, 973
34, 042
39, 704
44, 043
43, 912
50, 376
57, 693

25, 953
28, 999
33, 250
40, 569
43, 313
47, 792
52, 867

MElio ns of doll ars, seasorlally adjussted
102, 490 66, 149 36, 341 55, 937 29, 951
108, 072 70, 098 37, 974 64,246 35, 142
124, 395 81, 218 43, 177 76, 217 42, 888
157, 971 101, 780 56, 191 86, 988 46, 570
155, 693 100, 310 55, 382 85, 659 42, 164
166, 587 105, 729 60, 858 98, 497 50, 681
177, 352 112, 845 64, 507 112, 113 59, 185

1976: Dec.__ 104, 475
1977: Jan___ 103, 569
F b . 106, 133
e..
Mar._ 111, 241
Apr__. 109, 640
May__ 109, 458
June 110, 680
July.. 109, 208
Aug__ 111,376
Sept-_ 111, 921
O t . 113, 119
c..
Nov__ 113, 240
Dec *>_ 116, 184

55, 295
53, 341
54, 703
58, 849
56, 764
56, 717
57, 570
56, 820
58, 087
58, 608
59, 262
59, 154
61, 650

49, 180
50, 228
51, 430
52, 392
52, 876
52, 741
53, 110
52, 388
53, 289
53, 313
53, 857
54, 086
54, 534

166, 587
167, 482
168, 449
169, 379
170, 747
172, 629
173, 818
174, 571
175, 104
176, 164
176, 789
177, 162
177, 352

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977"

1
2 Monthly average for year and
s Book value, end of period.
End of period.
4

105, 729
106, 562
107, 222
107, 685
108, 190
109, 154
110, 421
110, 978
111,452
111, 787
111, 904
112, 548
112, 845

total for month. Shipments are the same as sales.

For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories te average monthly
shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments
for month.




60, 858
60,920
61, 227
61, 694
62, 557
63, 475
63, 397
63, 593
63, 652
64, 377
64, 885
64, 614
64, 507

106, 600
105, 288
106, 575
111, 788
111, 547
111, 693
111, 524
108, 598
111, 494
112, 441
116, 543
116, 068
120, 765

57, 040
55, 037
55, 133
59, 160
58, 652
59, 176
58, 378
56, 031
58, 270
59, 048
62, 503
61, 984
66, 028

7, 575
8,947
11, 169
12, 656
10, 899
12, 820
15, 320

25, 986
29, 104
33, 329
40, 418
43, 495
47, 816
52, 927

107, 656
122, 362
161, 766
190, 271
171, 438
175, 453
193, 997

1.83
1.67
1. 58
1. 66
1.80
1.64
1.56

13, 835
14, 621
14, 249
14, 561
14, 679
15, 000
15, 535
14, 409
14, 678
16, 189
16, 502
15, 883
17, 329

49, 560
50, 251
51, 442
52, 623
52, 895
52, 517
53, 146
52, 567
53, 224
53, 393
54, 040
54, 084
54, 737

175, 453
177, 179
177, 623
178, 167
180, 065
182, 301
183, 150
182, 541
182, 646
183, 166
186, 590
189, 416
193, 997

1. 59
1. 62
1. 59
1. 52
1.56
1. 58
1. 57
1. 60
1. 57
1.57
1.56
1.56
1.53

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

21

PRICES

WHOLESALE PRICES

In December, the wholesale price index rose 0.6 percent (0.5 percent seasonally adjusted). Prices of farm products
and processed foods and feeds rose 1.4 percent (0.4 percent seasonally adjusted). Industrial commodities prices were
up 0.4 percent (0.5 percent seasonally adjusted).
INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)
220

INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE)
220

200

200

FARM PRODUCTS AND
PROCESSED FOODS AND FEEDS

100

100

1977

1969

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[1967=100]
All
commodities

Period

__

110. 4
114. 0
119. 1
134. 7
160. 1
174.9
183. 0
194. 2

1976: Dec__
1977: Jan _ „
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
_ _
June_
July
Aug
Sept__ _
Oct
_
Nov
Dec

187. 1
188. 1
190. 2
192.0
194. 3
195. 2
194. 5
194. 8
194.6
195.3
196. 3
197.0
198. 2

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977

Farm
products Indusand
trial
processed commodfoods
ities
and feeds
111. 7
110. 0
113. 9
114. 1
122. 4
117. 9
159. 1
125. 9
177. 4
153. 8
184. 2
171. 5
182. 4
183. 1
188.8
195. 1
Unadjusted
183. 9
187. 4
184. 8
188. 4
190. 0
188. 4
191. 7
190. 9
195. 9
193.3
194. 2
196. 8
194. 7
191. 5
188.7
195. 9
184. 2
196. 9
183. 9
197.8
184.2
199. 1
186. 8
199. 2
189. 5
200. 0

T>_
Jrrocessed
foods
and
feeds
rt

Farm
products

111. 0
112. 9
125. 0
176.3
187. 7
186.7
191. 0
192. 5

112. 1
114. 5
120. 8
148. 1
170. 9
182. 6
178. 0
186. 1

191. 9
194. 0
198. 3
203. 5
210. 4
205.5
191. 4
187.6
179.9
179.6
184.0
189.5
189. 0

178. 8
178. 5
181.9
185. 3
190. 1
193.4
190. 1
185. 0
184.2
183. 1
184.5
187. 7
189. 3

1 Excludes crude foodstuff's and feedstuffs, plant and animal fibers, oilseeds, and
leaf tobacco.
2 Includes supplies and components; excludes intermediate materials for food
manufacturing and manufactured animal feeds.

22



Special ggroupings
Consunler finishe d goods
Crude
excjluding foe)ds
mateNonrials 1
Total Durable durable
118.9
109. 9
106.9
112.0
107. 7
108. 3
114. 3
111. 4
123. 1
111. 7
116. 6
110.8
113.4
131. 1
119. 5
113. 2
118. 9
113.6
155. 2
123. 5
118. 5
115. 8
128. 1
120. 5
141. 0
138. 6
219. 1
159. 5
126. 3
146.8
162. 5
153. 1
138. 2
178. 6
225. 1
163.0
249.9
173. 2
161. 8
189.5
144. 4
173. 3
172. 1
202. 4
152. 1
184. 5
280. 4
185.4
Seasonally adjusted
165. 8
178.4
265. 9
195. 5
178.4
146. 9
262. 6
196.4
167. 5
179. 0
148. 1
180.5
168. 1
180. 1
181.0
273. 0
197. 6
148.9
180. 8
169. 3
279. 3
199.3
149. 4
182.7
183.8
200.5
170. 5
280. 1
150. 6
181. 8
182. 8
184.8
282. 3
200. 9
171. 3
151. 1
172. 0
151. 7
183. 5
185. 7
277.8
201. 5
172.4
152. 1
202. 7
184. 4
186. 0
277. 7
172. 9
153. 5
185. 2
203. 7
185. 9
283. 0
174. 1
205.2
153.6
186. 1
187.8
283. 9
188. 9
155. 3
175. 1
188.4
283.2
206.3
175. 6
155. 5
190. 2
189. 1
286.8
206. 7
176. 0
155. 9
189. 5
207.8
191. 2
296. 0
Inter- Producmediate er finmateished
rials 2
goods

Note.—Data for June and July 1977 revised.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

CONSUMER PRICES
In December, the consumer price index rose 0.4 percent (also 0.4 percent seasonally adjusted). Food prices increased
0.4 percent (0.2 percent seasonally adjusted). Nonfood commodity prices rose 0.2 percent (0.5 percent seasonally
adjusted) and services prices were up 0.5 percent (also 0.5 percent seasonally adjusted).
INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCAL^
220

INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)

200

100

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1976

1975

1974

1977

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[1967=100]

All
items

Period

Food

Commodities

Services

food
1970.1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977_._

__

116. 3
121. 3
125. 3
133. 1
147. 7
161.2
170.5
181.5

114. 9
118. 4
123. 5
141.4
161. 7
175.4
180.8
192.2

112. 5
116. 8
119. 4
123. 5
136.6
149. 1
156. 6
165. 1

121. 6
128. 4
133. 3
139. 1
152. 1
166.6
180.4
194. 3

commodities
113.5
117. 4
120. 9
129. 9
145. 5
158. 4
165.2
174.7

Comrnodities le ss food

Food

All

114. 9
118.4
123.5
141.4
161. 7
175.4
180. 8
192.2

Food
away
from
home

All

home

All

113. 7
116. 4
121. 6
141. 4
162.4
175. 8
179. 5
190.2

119. 9
126. 1
131. 1
141. 4
159.4
174.3
186. 1
200. 3

112. 5
116.8
119. 4
123. 5
136. 6
149. 1
156. 6
165. 1

Food
at

Services

Durable

Non-

111.8
116. 5
118. 9
121. 9
130.6
145. 5
154.3
163.2

113. 1
117. 0
119. 8
124.8
140. 9
151. 7
158. 3
166.5

121.6
128.4
133.3
139. 1
152. 1
166.6
180.4
194.3

able

Seasonal y adjust ed

Unac justed
1976: D e c _ _ . 174. 3

181. 7

160. 6

185. 8

168. 0

181. 9

179. 7

190. 4

160.5

158.4

162.0

185. 5

175.3
177. 1
178.2
179. 6
180. 6
181.8
182.6
183. 3
184.0
184.5
185. 4
186. 1

183.4
187. 7
188.6
190. 9
191. 7
193.6
194. 6
195. 2
194. 5
194.4
195. 6
196.3

160. 6
161. 6
162. 6
163. 6
164. 7
165.4
165. 6
166. 0
166. 7
167.4
168. 1
168.4

187. 4
188.7
190. 0
191.2
192.2
193.7
195.3
196. 3
197. 7
198.5
199. 5
200.5

169. 4
171. 4
172. 2
173. 6
174. 5
175.3
175. 5
176.0
176. 3
176.7
177.6
178.3

183. 5
187. 1
188. 2
191. 0
192. 4
193.9
194. 0
194.5
194.7
194.9
196. 1
196.5

181.3
185.4
186. 4
189. 3
190. 7
192. 1
191. 9
192.3
192. 4
192. 5
193.9
194.1

192.0
194. 0
195. 4
197. 5
199. 5
201. 2
202. 1
203. 2
203.7
2042
204.8
205.6

161.6
162.7
163. 4
164. 0
164. 7
165. 1
165. 3
165.8
166.2
166. 7
167.5
168.3

159.9
161.4
162.4
163. 2
163. 5
163.4
163.4
163.5
163. 8
163.8
164.8
165.9

162. 8
163.7
164.2
164. 7
165. 6
166. 3
166. 8
167. 5
168. 0
168.8
169.5
170.1

187.0
188.4
189. 9
191. 4
192. 6
194. 2
195. 7
196.7
197.7
198. 4
199.2
200.1

1977: Jan__._
Feb
Mar_^>_
Apr
May...
June
July..-.
Aug
Sept___
Oct
Nov
Dec

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.




23

CHANGES IN WHOLESALE PRICES
Percent cl langefro m 3 mont as earlier ; Percent cJiange from 6 mont hs earlier;
season ally adjusted annua 1 rates
seasonsilly adju£sted annulil rates

Percen t change from pre ceding
perio<i; seasontally adjusJted 1
Period

All

commodities

1969
..
1970
1971
1972
_
1973.
1974
1975....—
1976
1977.
1976: Dec..
1977: Jan..
Feb..
Mar»
Apr__
May.
JuneJuly..
Aug..
SeptOct__
Nov..
Dec,.

4.8
2.2
4.1
6.3

15.4
20.9

4.2
47
5.9
.6
.5
1.0
1.1

1. 1

Farm
products
8.4

-4.7

8.1

18.7
36.1
-1.9
5. 5
-1. 1
-1.7
2.6
1.1
2.2
2.6
3.4

.4
-.6
—.2
.1

-2.3
-6.9
-2.0
-4. 1
. 2

.8
.7
.5

2.4

.5

3. 0

-.3

Industrial
commodities

Processed
foods
and
feeds
6.8
.8
4.7

11.6
20.3
20.9
-3.8
-1.1
5.8

1. 8
-.2
1.9
1.9
2.6
1.7

—.4
-.6
.8
1.7
.9

Processed
foods
and
feeds

Farm
products

Industrial
commodities

All

commodities

Farm
products

Processed
foods
and
feeds

Industrial
commodities

3.9
3.6
3.4
3.4

10.7
25.6

6.0
6.4
6.7
.3
.5
.7
.7

.6

-1.7
-2.7

All

commodities

.4
.3
.5
.5
.8
.6
.4
.5

7. 1
7, 1
8.9

10.6
13.4
10.5
3.6

-1.4
-2.6

1.5
5.5
8.3
8.3

6.5
8.5

5.8

12.9
26.2
26.5
38.3
15.3
-21.7
-36.8
-41.3
-22. 5
-7.5
23. 1
22.6

1

15.1
15.4
28.6
27.8
10. 8
-10. 3
-17.7
-13.9
-1.1
7.8

14.2

7.6
6.1
6.3
8.1
8.5
7.1
5,3
4.9
5.3
7.4
7.6
7.3
6.0

5.3
5.5
8.0
8.9

10.2

9.7
7.0
5.7
3.7
2.5
2.0
2.7
4.8

-3.5
—.2

-3. 1
-2.2

—.5

10.8
18. 1
21.3
13.0

11.6
15.7
25.0
20.6

-6.5
-17.7
-22.1
-23.5
-15.0
—2. 5

6.9

7.4
2.5

-2.4
-5,8
-5.8

-.8

7.8
7> 7

7.9
7.8
7.3
6. 7

6.7
6.7
6.2
6.4
6.2
6.3
6.7

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted).
NOTE.—Data for June and July 1977 revised.

CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES
Percecit change; from preceding
period; seasortally adju sted1
Period
All
items

1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977

6.1

5. 5

3.4
3.4
8.8

12.2
7. 0
4. 8

Food

7. 2
2. 2
4. 3
4.7

20. 1
12.2
6. 5

Commodities
less
food

Services

4,5
4.8
2.3
2.5
5.0

13.2
6.2

Percent c mnge frc»m 3 mont hs earlier; Percent c iange frc m 6 mont hs earlier;
seasonsilly adjussted annu al rates
seasonsilly adju.sted annu al rates

All
items

Food

Commodities
less
food

Services

All
items

Food

Commodities
less
food

Services

7.4
8.2

4. 1

3.6
6.2

11. 3
8. 1

6.8

.6
8.0

5. 1
4.9

7.3
7.9

1976: Dec...

.4

.1

.6

.4

4.2

0.0

5.7

5.1

4.8

0.8

5.6

6.3

1977: Jan.. _
Feb....
Mar...
Apr.-.
May..
June..
July...
Aug—
Sept
Oct...
Nov...
Dec...

.8
1.0

.9
2. 0

7
7
4
4
4
2
1
3
2
3
5
5

.8
.7
.8
.8
.6
.8
.8
.5
.5
.4
.4
.5

6.1
9.1

2.9

6.7
8.0
7.4

6.7
8.0
9.8
9.7
9.2
9.4
9.3
8.8
7.4
5.6
5.2
4.9

5.5
6.5
7.1
8.0
8.7
9.0
8.1
6.8
6.1

2.3
5.9
7.0

6.1
6.3
6.5
6.4
6.5

6.6
6.9
7.4
8.2
8.6
9.6

J

.6
.8
.6
.6
.4
.3
.3
.3

.5
.4

.6
1.5

.7
.8

.1
.3

.1
.1
.6
.2

Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted).

24



10.0
9.9
8.4

8. 1
6.4
5.2

4. 2

3.8
4.4
4.6

12.4
14.6
17.4
11.8
12.7

6.4
4.4
1.7
1.9
3.3
3.7

6. 1

5.0
4.2

3. 2

2.7
2.7
3.4
4.2

5. 2

5. 1

4.8
4.4

9. 9
12. 1
13. 6
11.8
8. 1
7.0

4. 1

3.9
2.7

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

5. 8

4.6
3.8
3.5
3.3
3.4
3.9

9. 5

9.0
8.4
7.4
7.0
6.2

PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received by farmers rose 2 percent in the month ended January 1 5. Contributing most to the increase were
higher prices for cattle, hogs, broilers, lettuce, and tomatoes. Partially offsetting were lower prices for eggs, milk,
grapefruit, and soybeans. Prices paid by farmers were up 2 percent from the December 1 5 level.
INDEX, 1967*= 100

(RATIO SCALE)

PRICES RECEIVED
(ALL FARM PRODUCTS)

PRICES PAID
fALL ITEMS, INTEREST,
TAXES, AND WAGE RATES)

1969

I

1970

1971

1972

1973

1975

1974

1976

1977

J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES, ON 1910-14=100 BASE.
COUNCfc OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE) DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

Prices received by farmers
Period

All farm
products

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977

Crops

Prices paid by fai•mers
All items,
Livestock interest,
Family
Producand
tion
taxes, and | living
products wage rates
items
items
Index, 1 967=100

110
113
125
179
192
185
186
183

100
108
114
175
224
201
197
193

118
118
136
183
165
172
177
175

112
118
125
144
164
180
191
202

_._

178

190

169

1977: Jan 15
Feb 15
Mar 15
Apr 15
May 15. . ___
June 15
July 15
AuglS
Sept 15
Oct 15___
Nov 15. _
Dec 15
_

183
186
190
191
193
184
180
175
174
178
179
181

198
203
211
213
214
198
182
173
171
178
185
183

170
174
171
172
176
173
179
177
177
177
174
180

185

186

185

1976: Dec 15

1978: Jan 15 4 _ _
1

___.

i
1

Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid,
interest taxes, and wage rates on 1910-14=100 base.
s
The adjusted parity ratio reflects Government payments made directly to
formers.
8
Index discontinued. Consumer price index (Department of Labor) substituted
in calculating total prices paid beginning January 1977.




Parity ratio 1
Actual

Adjusted 2

114
118
123
133
151
166
176

108
113
121
146
166
182
193
200

72
71
74
91
86
76
71
67

>77
75
79
94
87
76
72
68

192

181

192

68

69

198
200
202
204
204
204
203
201
201
201
202
203

182

(s3)
()
(33)
(3)
(3)
()
(33)

68
69
69
69
70
66
65
64
63
65
65
66

69
70
70
70
71
68
66
65
65
66
66
67

208

(8)

196
199
201
204
205
203
201
198
197
198
199
199
203

65

67

(8)

e>)
(3

()

(3)

* Not charted.
NOTE.—Data revised beginning January 1976.
Source: Department of Agriculture.

25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS

MONEY STOCK

The growth in Mi during the fourth quarter was 6.2 percent (annual rate).
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

200

200

1969
•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

1977
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Over all measiares

l

Deposi ts at co tnmercia banks
Period
M,

M,

M8

Currency

Timte and sa vings

Demand
Total
1972: Dec__.
1973: Dec__.
1974: Dec_._
1975: Dec...
1976: Dec...
1977: Dec*_
1977: Jan__.
Feb..Mar..
Apr___
May..
June__
July_.
Aug__
Sept..
Oct...
Nov__
Dec v.

255. 3
270. 5
283. 1
294.8
312.4
335.4
313.8
314.0
315. 4
320. 5
320.7
321.9
326. 8
328.4
330. 4
333.7
333.3
335.4

525. 3
571.4
612.4
664. 3
740.3
806.5
746.3
750. 7
756. 1
764.6
767.6
772. 8
783.5
787. 7
792. 9
799. 6
802.7
806.5

844.5
919. 6
981.5
1, 092. 6
1, 237. 1
1, 374. 1
1, 248. 9
1, 258. 2
1, 268. 1
1, 281. 2
1, 289. 0
1, 299. 5
1, 316. 9
1, 329. 5
1, 343. 1
1, 357. 1
1, 365. 6
1, 374. 1

56.9
61.5
67.8
73. 7
80.5
88.4
81. 1
81. 8
82. 2
83. 1
83.6
84. 0
85. 1
85. 5
86. 4
87. 1
87.8
88.4

198.4
209. 0
215. 3
221. 0
231.9
247.0
232. 7
232. 1
233. 2
237.4
237. 1
238. 0
241.7
242. 9
244.0
246.6
245.5
247. 0

313. 5
363. 9
418. 3
451. 7
491.1
545.8
495. 6
500.0
502.8
505.7
509. 2
514. 8
519. 5
522. 5
525.8
532. 2
540.3
545.8

1
MI is currency plus demand deposits; M* Is MI plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large certificates of deposit (CDs); and Ms is Ms plus
deposits at nonbank thrift institutions.

26



Per cent
chaiage *

Comporlents anc [ related iterns

Large
CDs
43.5
63.0
89.0
82. 1
63.3
74. 7
63. 1
63. 3
62.2
61.6
62. 3
63. 9
62. 8
63.2
63.2
66.4
70.9
74. 7

Other
270.0
300.9
329. 3
369. 6
427.9
471. 1
432. 5
436.7
440. 6
444. 1
446. 9
450. 9
456.7
459. 3
462.6
465.9
469.4
471.1

Deposits
at
nonbank
thrift
institutions

U.S. Government
demand
deposits
(unadjusted)

319. 3
348. 1
369. 1
428.3
496. 8
567. 6
502. 6
507.5
512. 1
516. 6
521. 4
526.7
533. 5
541. 7
550.2
557.5
563.0
567.6

7.4
6. 3
4,9
4. 1
4.7
5.5
4. 2
4.4
4. 5
5.6
3.8
5.2
3.9
3.7
5.4
4.1
3.8
5.5

M!

9.2
6.0
4,7
4. 1
6.0
7.4
5.9
5. 0
5.6
6.6
6.7
6.2
8.5
9.4
9.7
8.4
8.0
8.6

M2

11.4
8.8
7.2
8.5
11.4
8.9
12.0
11.7
11.4
10.9
9.9
9.0
10.2
10. 1
10.0
9.4
9.3
8.9

* Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are
from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.
Source; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve system.

PRIVATE LIQUID ASSET HOLDINGS—NONFINANCIAI, INVESTORS
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Curre ncy and c leposits
Time c .eposits

Negotiable
certificates of
deposit

Other
private
money
market
instruments

Dec
Dee
Dec.
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec *

Total
liquid
assets

Total

769. 5
851.8
967.4
1, 079. 2
1, 166. 9
1, 290. 4
1, 423. 7
1, 599. 6

Period

1970:
1971:
1972:
1973:
1974:
1975:
1976:
1977:

U.S. T reasury
secu]rities

632.4
718. 9
817.0
887.5
945.2
1, 054. 4
1, 194. 2
1, 330. 8

49.1
52. 6
56. 9
61. 5
67. 8
73. 7
80. 5
88. 4

151.8
161.6
176.4
183. 3
187.2
191. 7
198.8
214. 7

198.9
233. 6
264. 5
294. 5
321.2
360.6
418. 1
460. 3

232.7
271.1
319.3
348.1
369. 1
428.3
496.8
567.4

52.0
54.3
57.6
60.4
63.3
67.2
71. 9
76.6

41.9
31.3
34.4
43. 3
47. 5
66.5
66. 1
76.4

21.8
27.7
36.3
53.8
70.4
59.4
44.2
55.0

21.4
19.6
22.2
34.3
40.5
43.0
47.4
60.9

1, 207. 6
1, 216. 7
1, 226. 0
1, 239. 4
1, 246. 3
1, 256. 0
1, 273. 4
1, 284. 7
1, 299. 0
1, 313. 5
1, 321. 4
1, 330, 8

81. 1
81. 8
82. 2
83. 1
83. 6
84. 0
85. 1
85. 5
86. 4
87. 1
87. 8
88. 4

200. 9
200. 1
200. 9
205.5
204. 5
205. 0
208. 7
208. 6
209. 9
213.3
212. 4
214. 7

423. 0
427. 2
430.8
434. 2
436. 8
440. 4
44.6. 1
448. 9
452. 5
455. 7
458. 5
460. 3

502. 6
507. 5
512. 1
516. 6
521.4
526. 7
533. 5
541. 7
550. 2
557. 5
562.7
567.4

72.3
72.6
73.0
73.4
73. 8
74. 2
74. 7
75. 1
75. 4
75. 8
76. 2
76.6

66. 9
70. 3
70. 3
70. 0
69.2
68. 4
69. 8
71. 8
72. 5
74.4
75.8
76.4

43. 6
44.2
43. 3
42. 5
42. S
44. 3
43.4
43. 8
43.5
46. 8
51.3
55. 0

48.1
49. 7
51.7
53. 3
54.7
56.6
58. 1
58. 7
59. 3
59.9
60.4
60. 9

1, 438. 5
1, 453. 6
1, 464. 3
1, 478. 6
1,486. 8
.__ _ 1, 499. 6
1, 519. 4
_ _ 1, 534. 1 !
1, 549. 7
! 1, 570. 2
1, 585. 1 !
1, 599. 6 1

1977: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mav
June
Julv
Aug
Sept.
Oct
Nov
Dec »

Currency

Demand
deposits

i

Commercial
banks

ShortNonbank
term
Savings marketthrift
bonds able seinstitucurities

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,

CONSUMER INSTALMENT CREDIT
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Instalmlent credit extended
i
Bank
AutoTotal »
credit
mobile
cards

Period

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976 2
1977

.__

Instalm ent credit li cjuidated
Total l

30, 094
35, 820
42, 700
48, 399
45, 429
51, 413
62, 988
72, 946

6, 768
8, 377
10, 390
13, 863
17, 098
20, 428
25, 862
31, 563

107, 444
113, 784
121, 926
138, 156
147, 920
156, 665
172, 795
195, 115

1976: Nov
Dec

16, 712
17, 677

5, 312
5,869

2,260
2, 297

15, 077
15, 236

1977: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May_,
June
July__
Aug _
Sept _ __
Oct.
Nov 2
Dec

17, 241
17, 595
18, 496
18, 784
18, 503
18, 810 '
18, 631
19, 204
19, 164
19, 787
19, 680
20, 079

5, 511
5,819
6, 199
6, 106
6, 048
0, 063
5, 966
6, 158
6, 109
6,083
6, 330
6, 554

2, 182
2, 408
2,406
2, 576
2, 621

15, 084
15, 610
15, 525
15, 886
15, 849
16, 388
16, 167
16, 553
16, 814
17, 160
16, 826
17, 253

2, Q40

1 Includes some items not shown s?Darately.
2 Preliminary; December by Council of Economic Advisers.




j

!

112, 296
123, 826
137, 117
157, 863
157, 200
164, 169
193, 328
225, 974

2, 566
2,711
2,847
2, 973
2,828
2,805

Automobile

Bank
credit
cards

Net change in amount outstanding
—
Total l

Automobile

Bank
credit
cards

5, 615
7, 679
9,472
12, 433
15, 655
19, 208
24, 012
.28, 910

4, 852
10,043
15, 191
19, 707
9,280
7, 504
20, 533
30, 859

-347
4,207
5, 512
5, 758
500
3,007
10, 238
13, 420

1, 153
699
918
1,430
1,443
1,220
1,850
2, 653

4, 630
4, 667

2, 148
2,228

1,634
2, 442

682
1, 201

112
69

4, 712
4,801
4, 816
4, 901
4, 801
5, 100
4,897
5, 104
5,005
5,234
5,089
5, 066

2, 176
2, 201
2, 142
2, 298
2,430
2,403
2, 382
2,396
2, 567
2,687
2, 585
2, 643 i

2, 156
1,984
2,971
2,898
2, 655
2,422
2,464
2, 651
2, 351
2, 626
2,853
2,826

799
1,019
1, 383
1, 205
1, 247
963
1,069
1, 054
1,105
850
1,241
1, 488

6
207
263
278
192
238
184
315
279
287
243
162

30,440
31, 614
. 37, 188 '
42, 642
44, 929
48, 406
52, 750
59, 526

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

27

BANK LOANS, INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES
Growth of business loans was quite modest in December and total loans and investments declined at commercial banks.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
1,000

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

1,000

"ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS"

800

800

600

600

400

400

200

200

INVESTMENT IN OTHER SECURITIES
„..„„„„,»*""""""""

100

100

80

80

INVESTMENT IN
US. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES

60

60

t ...I.. .1.1....i i i

40
1970

1969

1972

1971

I I I ! I I I I 1 I!

ill i j i t 11\ i i \ i i \ I i i l i t i i 11 i Li i i l l 40

1974

1973

1975

1976

•'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, END OF MONTH
SOURCE* BOARD OF GOVERNORS Of THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
All me mber ban ks
Allc ommercial b anks *
1
Borrowiiags (milI Leserves 2 8
L<>ans
Total
lions of dollars,
Investnlents
unadju sted) *
loans
and
lotai ex- Commer- U.S. Gov- Other
invest- cluding
ReNonSeaTotal
cial and
ernment
secuTotal
ments
borrowed quired
sonal
inter- industrial securities
rities
bank

t

Period

1970....
1971
1972
1973
1974__
1975
1976

_.--4

_

1977 * _ _ .
1977: Jan
Feb
Mar_
__
Apr
_
May
..- _
June
July"
Aug*__
Sept *_ _ _ _
Oct*.
Nov*
Dec v

435.5
485.7
558. 0
633. 4
690. 4
721. 1
784.4

292.0
320.9
378. 9
449. 0
500.2
496. 9
538. 9

110. 0
116.1
130.2
156. 4
183.3
176. 0
5
179. 5

865.4

612. 9

6

787.3
797.9
805. 1
815.7
823.9
830.5
837. 0
845. 6
848. 4
857.9
866. 1
865.4

541.4
546. 6
552.9
560. 7
566. 1
572, 4
579.0
587.0
592.2
602. 5
611.2
612. 9

6

28




28. 79
31. 10
30. 36
33. 64
35. 87
34.60
3490
35. 64

28.87
31. 04
31. 12
3464
36. 34
34.46
34 68

321
107
1,049
1,298
703
127
62

159.0

29. 12
31.22
31.41
34.94
36.60
34 73
34 95
36.21

36.02

558

148.9
149. 6
148.4
151. 8
152.7
152.9
154.4
155. 5
156. 1
157.6
159.9
159. 0

3478
34.40
3431
34 68
34 72
3486
35.35
35. 64
35. 63
35. 90
36. 01
36. 21

3471
3433
34.20
34 61
34 52
34 60
35. 03
34 58
35.00
34 59
35. 15
35. 64

3451
3420
3409
3449
34 51
34 71
35. 08
35.44
35.42
35. 69
35. 76
36. 02

61
79
110
73
200
262
336
1,071
634
1,319
840
558

85.7
104.2
116. 5
129.9
139.8
144.8
148. 2

202. 2

57.8
60.6
62.6
54. 5
50.4
79.4
97.3
93.5

180. 4
182. 2
184.4
186. 7
188.2
190. 2
192. 4
194. 6
195. 1
199. 3
201. 6
202. 2

97.0
101. 7
103.8
103. 2
105. 1
105. 2
103. 6
103. 1
100. 1
97. 8
95.0
93. 5

1
Data are for end of period.
2 Averages of daily figures. Annual data are for December.
Member bank reserves series reflects actual reserve requirement percentages
with no adjustment to eliminate the effect of changes in Regulations D and M.
4
During 1974, total loans and investments were increased $0.6 billion due to
5

1977

41
32
13
12
54
8
12
13
14
31
55
60
101
112
114
83
54

a bank merger and were reduced $1.5 billion due to liquidation of a large bank.
* Loan ^classifications reduced these loans by $1.2 billion as of March 31,1976,
6
Loan ^classifications reduced these loans by $0.3 billion in December 1977.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE
BUSINESS
JBillions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Uses

Sources
.

Total

Purchase
of
physical
assets *

crease
in
financial
assets

95. 9
114. 6

80. 3
86. 0

15. 6
28. 6

123. 3
134. 7

39. 3

External
Period

1970
1971.
1972.

Total

._

1973. .
1974
1975__
1976

_.

.

1976: I
• II..
Ill-IV
1977: I.
II
III"

104. 3
127. 1
152.9
ISO. 7

180. 7
148.4

213. 5

Internal'

58. 9
68. 6
80. 8
83. 8
75.7
107. 8
125. 8

219.8
220. 4
204.3
209. 5

125. 4

268. 6

125. 7

240. 4
240.7

125. 0
130.5
122. 3
134. 8

145. 3

Cred t market funds
Total

Longterm 2

Shortterm a

32. 1
40. 6
40. 7
37. 0
39. 1
49. 3
48. 6

8. 6

40. 7

45. 5

58. 5

44. 5
57.7
72.7
81.8
36.6

72. 2
96. 9
105. 0

40. 6
87.7

58. 3

17. 0
35. 7
42.7
-12. 7
9. 7

4. 8
14. 1
14. 5
24. 2
23.2
4. 1
29. 4

136. 5
162. 6
163. 5
132. 3
197. 2

140. 3

42. 3
35. 3
22. 1
17. 8

203.2
202. 5
192. 6
190. 5

56. 3
17.9
29.9

257.4
233. 6
232.0

169. 5

3.9

73. 8

87. 2

52.1
60.2
51.7
69.4

50. 1
46.8
51. 0
46. 6

2. 1
13. 4
.7
22. S

143.0
105. 6
95. 4

86. 6
87.7
65.5

42. 4
55. 8
49. 3

44. 3
31. 8
16. 2

94. 4
95. 5

1

Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption
adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits.
1
Stocks, bonds, and mortgages.
* Bank loans, commercial paper, finance company loans, bankers' acceptances,
»nd Government loans.

Other

100. 3

In-

36. 2

Discrepancy
(sources
less
uses)
8. 4
12. 5
16. 5
18. 1

28. 9
33. 7

17. 1
16. 2
16.3

134.3
143. 1
150. 4
133. 4

68. 9

16.6
17. 9

153. 7

103. 7
64. 1
58. 3

98.6

173.7

56. 9

59. 4
42. 1
57. 1

11.7
19. 0
11. 3
6. 8
8.7

* Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights,
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System.

CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS
[Billions of dollars]
Cur rent liabilities

Ourrent ass ets

Ad-

End of
period

Cash
U.S. Receivables
on
Govfrom
ernTotal hand
U.S.
and
ment
Govin
securi2
ernbanks ' ties
ment *

Notes
and
accounts
receivable

Other
Incurvenrent
tories
assets *

Total

—

492. 3
1970
1971
529. 6
1972
573.5
1973
643. 3
1974
712. 2
1975
731. 6
1976
816. 8
1975: III-. 716. 5
IV— 731. 6
1976: I
753. 5
II-. 775.4
III.. 791. 8
IV 816. 8
1977: I
845. 3
II— 874.7
Ill- 909. 8

50. 2
53. 3
57.5
61. 6
62. 7
68. 1
77. 0
65. 6
68. 1
68. 4
70. 8
71. 1
77. 0
75. 0
77. 9
79. 1

7.7

11.0

9.3

11. 0
11.7
19.4
26.4
14.3
19.4
21.7
23.3
23.9
26. 4
27. 3
24. 1
24. 1

4. 2
3. 5
3. 4

3.5
3. 5
3. 6

4.3

as
3. 6

3. 6
3.7
4.3

4. 3
4. 6
4. 8
5.3

201. 9
217. 6
240. 0
266. 1
289.7
294. 6
323.9
294. 7
294. 6

193. 3
200. 4
215. 2
246. 7
288. 0
285. S
315.4
279. 6
285. 8

307. 3
318. 1
324. 2
323. 9
342. 0
356.6
373.8

288. 8
295. 6
302. 1
315.4
322. 1
332. 5
343. 1

* Includes time certificates of deposit.
agency issues.
Receivables from and payables to the U.S. Government do not include
amounts offset against each other on corporations' books or amounts arising from
subcontracting which are not directly due from or to the TT.8. Government.
Wherever possible, adjustments nave been made to include TJ.S. Government
advances offset against inventories on corporations' books.
3
1Includes Federal




35. 0
43. 8
48. 1
54.4
56.6
60. 0
69.8
59.0
60. 0
63. 6
63. 9
66. 3
69. 8
74.3
78.8
84.5

304, 9
326. 0
352. 2
401. 0
450. 6
457. 5
499.9
444.7
457. 5
465. 9
475. 9
484. 1
499. 9
516. 6
532. 0
556. 3

vances
and
Notes
preand
payacments, counts
U.S.
payGovable
ernment '

Federal
income
tax
liabilities

Other
current
liabilities 6

10.0
13. 1
15. 1
18. 1
23. 2
20.7
26. 8
19.4
20. 7
23. 9
22. 0
24. 9
26. 8
28. 6
24. 5
26. 9

sae

6. 6
4. 9

204.7
215. 6
4.0 230. 4
4.3 261.6
5. 2 287. 5
6.4 281. 6
7. 0 295.9
6. 2 273. 4
6. 4 281. 6
6.4 280. 5
6. 8 287. 0
7. 0 284. 7
7. 0 295. 9
6. 8 302. 2
5. 7 313. 2
6.2 323.6

92.4

102. 6
117. 0

134. 8
148. 8

170.2
145. 6
148. 8
155. 0
160. 1
167.5
170.2

179. 0

188.6

199.7

Net
working
capital

187. 4

203. 6

221. 3
242. 3
261. 5
274. 1
316. 9
271.8
274. 1
287. 6
299.4
307.7
316. 9

328. 7
342.7
353.5

* Includes marketable investments (other than Government securities and
time certificates of deposit) as well as sundry current assets.
* Includes commercial paper outstanding, the portion of long-term debt due
in less than 1 year, and miscellaneous current liabilities not elsewhere classified.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.

29

INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS
Short-term interest rates moved up early In January when the discount rate was increased, but subsequently declined
a little.
PERCENT PER ANNUM

PERCENT PER ANNUM

1977

1969
SOURCE! SEE TABLE BELOW

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Percent per annum]

Period

1972
1973.
1974.

U.S. Government seenirity yields High- grade
Prime com- Discount
municipal Corporate
mercial
rate
3-month
paper,
bonds
(N.Y.
3-5 year
Taxable
bonds
Treasury
F.R.
(Standard
4-6
bonds *
issues 2
Bank)9
bills *
& Poor's)4 (Moody's)
months

4.071
7.041
7.886
5.838
4.989
5.265
4.597
4.662

1975..

1976
1977
1977: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July

Aug

Sept

Oct
Nov
Dec__
7

1978; Jan
Week ended:

1977: Dec 30
1978: Jan 6
13
20
27

Feb 3 _ _ _

4.613
4. 540
4. 942
5. 004
5. 146
5. 500
5. 770
6. 188
6. 160
6. 063
6. 448
6. 152
6. 144
6.682

6. 535
6.429

6. 440

5.63
6.30
6.99
6.98
6.78
7.06
6. 68
7. 15
7.20
7. 14
7. 17
6.99
6.97
7.00
6.94
7. 08
7. 14
7.23
7.50

5.27
5. 18
6.09
6.89
6.49
5.56
5. 70
5. 75
5. 76
5.61
5. 64
5.53
5.50
5.46
5.37
5. 53
5. 38
5.48
5. 60

8.02
7.96
8.04
8. 10
8.04
8.05
7.95
7.94
7.98
7.92
8.04
8.08
8. 19
8.41

4.69
8. 15
9.87
6.33
5. 35
5.60
4.74
4.82
4.87
4.87
5. 35
5.49
5.41
5.84
6. 17
6.55
6.59
6.64
6.79

7. 51
7.52
7.78
7. 75
7.74
7.68

7.34
7.36
7. 54
7. 54
7. 55
7.54

5. 54
5.54
5. 64
5. 61
5. 60
5.54

8.28
8.30
8.40
8.44
8.47
8.46

6.68
6.69
6.77
6. 85
6.83
6.81

1 Eate on new issues within period.
2 Selected note and bond issues.
s April 1953 to date, bonds due or callable 1C years and after.
* Weekly data are Wednesday figures.
1
Average effective rete for yrer: or ening an<! closing rate for irccth and week.

30




7.21
7.44
8.57
8.83

5. 85
6.92
7. 81
7. 55
6.94
6.85
6.49
6.69
6. 73
6. 58
6.76
6. 58
6.67
6.90
6.92
7. 23
7.28
7.40
7. 71

a 43

Prime
rate
charged

by

banks *

4. 50
6.45
7.83
6.25
5.50
5.46

5.25
8.03
10.81
7.86
6. 84
6.83

5V4-5K
5&-5K

w*~m
6 /4~6^

5H-5K.
5K-5H
5K-5M
5l/4-5^

6*4~6K
^-6%

SK-SK

5M-5%
5^-5%
53/4-6

6-6
6-6
6-6X2

6-6
6-6
6-6H

6^-6M
l

6^-6^/4

6%-6%
6«-7
7 -7H

7J4-7J4
7K-7K
73/4-7%
7J4-8

7%-7%
7%-7%
7%~8
8-8
8-8
8-8

Newhome
mortgage
yields
(FHLBB)1

7.60
7.95
8. 92
9. 01

a 99

9.01
9.05
8.99
8.95
8.94
8.96
8.98
9.00
9.02
9.04
9.07
9.07
9.08

6H-6H
6H-6H
6K-6K
• Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting
fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment
at end of 10 years. Eates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable with
prior rates.
* Not charted.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System, Federal Home
Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's
Corporation.

COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS
Stock prices moved erratically in January but were somewhat lower than at the end of 1977.
INDEX, DEC 31,1965=50
80

INDEX, DEC 31,1965=50
80 I

70

70

COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX
(NYSE)

60

50

50

40

30

30
1977

1969
PER CENT
20

PERC ENT,
20

15 „.

«-, 15

J •ARMINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS
(S&P)

/

^^w

^S
10

10

r-'XS^

5 j—
0

\

^xl

1
1969

!

I

I !
1970

—

-"
,-\ 5

^—
t

! I
1971

f

1 t
1972

t

t

I

! '

1 1

I

1974

1973

i !
1975*

I

I I
1976

5OURCE& NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD t COOK'S CORPORATION

Composite Industrial Transportation
_

Utility

60.29
57.42
43. 84
45. 73
54.46
53. 69
56. 28
54. 93
54. 67
53. 92
53. 96
54.30
54. 94
53.51
52. 66
51. 37
51. 87
51. 83
6
49. 89

65. 73
63.08
48.08
50. 52
60. 44
57. 86
61. 26
59.65
59. 56
58. 47
58. 13
58. 44
58. 90
57. 30
56. 41
54. 99
55. 62
53. 55
53. 45

50. 17
37.74
31. 89
31. 10
39. 57
41.09
41.93
40. 59
40. 52
41.51
43. 25
43. 29
43. 52
41. 04
39. 99
38. 33
39. 30
39. 75
39. 15

38.48
37. 69
29. 79
31. 50
36. 97
40.92
41. 13
40. 86
40. 18
40. 24
41. 14
41. 59
42. 44
41. 50
40. 93
40. 38
40. 33
40. 36
39. 06

51.34
49. 70
49. 73
49. 28
49. 66

55. 02
53. 19
53. 26
52. 80
53.24

39.73
38. 60
39. 36
39. 14
39. 15

40. 15
39. 20
38. 85
38. 49
38.78

i Averages oi daily closing prices.
* Includes all the stocks (more than 1,£00) listed on the NYSE.
Includes SO slocks.
«Includes 500 stocks.
'Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing
prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.
• Not charted.




0

Common s tock5 yields
(perc ent)

1

Standard
Dow& Poor's
composite Dividend- EarningsJones
index
Finance industrial (1941-43=
ratio
ratio
average s
10) *
78. 35
2.84
950. 71
109. 20
5.50
70. 12
7. 12
107. 43
3. 06
923. 88
49. 67
82. 85
11.59
759. 37
4.47
47. 14
802. 49
4. 31
86. 16
9. 15
52. 94
974. 92
102. 01
8.90
3.77
55. 25
4.62
894. 63
98. 20
57. 86
970. 62
103. 81
3.99
55. 65
4. 21
941. 77
100. 96
54. 84
10.24
100. 57
946. 1 1
4.37
54. 30
929. 10
99. 05
4. 47
54. 80
98. 76
4. 57
926. 31
55. 29
99. 29
4. 60
916. 56
10.37
57. 29
100. 18
908. 20
4. 59
56. 52
872. 26
97. 75
4. 72
6
55. 33
853. 30
4. 82
96. 23
11. 09
53. 24
93. 74
823. 96
4. 97
54. 04
94. 28
5. 02
828. 51
53. 85
93. 82
5. 11
818. 80
50. 01
781. 09
90. 25
5. 32

New York Stock Exchlange indexes (Dec. 31, 1965 = 50) 2

Period

8

1
1
1977

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Cominon stock p rices

1972
1973
_
1974
.
1975
1976
1977
1977: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May_ _
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1978: Jan
Week ended:
1978: Jan 6
13
20
27
Feb 3

\

52. 59
50. 62
50. 71
50. 32
50.58

S07.
779.
778.
768.
772.

43
17
53
43
59

92. 93
90. 01
89. 97
89. 01
89.65

5. 15
5. 37
5. 33
5. 42
5.42

NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange
(NYSE).
Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation.
nj

FEDERAL FINANCE
FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBT
According to the Budge! submitted in January, the budget deficit is estimated at $61.8 billion for fiscal year 1978
and at $60.6 billion for fiscal 1979.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
500
RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
500

;4oo

400

OUTLAYS

V"

300

300

RECEIPTS

200

200

50

50

SURPLUS (+) OR DEFICIT (-)

0

0

-50

-50

I

_L

-100

1970

1971

1

I

1972

-100

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

FISCAL YEARS
COUNCIt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THi TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

[Billions of dollars]
Receipts

Period

Fiscal year or period:
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
.
1974
1975
.
1976
Transition quarter
1977
1978 (estimates)2...
1979 (estimates)2

_
.
.
• „

__
_
. _ __ _

Cumulative total first 3 months :
Fiscal year 1977
.
Fiscal year 1978

__

1
Excludes non-interest-bearing public debt securities held by IMF.
2 Estimates from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year, 1979.

32




Outlays

Surplus or
deficit (-)

Federal debt (end of period)
Total l

Held by
the public

187.8
193.7
188.4
208. 6
232.2
264. 9
281. 0
299. 2
81.7
356.9
400. 4
439. 6

184.5
196.6
211. 4
232. 0
247. 1
269. 6
326. 1
365. 6
94. 7
401.9
462. 2
500. 2

3.2
-2.8
-23.0
-23. 4
-14.8
-4.7
-45. 1
-66. 4
-13. 0
-45.0
-61. 8
-60. 6

367. 1
382.6
409. 5
437.3
468.4
486.2
544, 1
631.9
646. 4
709. 1
785.6
873.7

279.5
284.9
304. 3
323. 8
343.0
346. 1
396.9
480. 3
498. 3
551.8
617. 8
690.8

76. 2
84.5

99. 0
113. 3

-22 8
-28.8

664. 8
729.2

515.8
572.5

NOTE.—See Note, p. 33.
Sources: Department of the Treasury an<i Office of Management and Budget.

FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND
OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
Fiscal 1978 budget receipts are estimated at $400.4 billion and budget outlays at $462.2 billion, according to the
January Budget. Corresponding figures for fiscal 1979 are $439.6 billion and $500.2 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS'OF DOLLARS
200

400

.400
OUTLAYS

300

300

NONDI

200

200

100

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

.1976'

1978

1977

1979

FISCAL YEARS
SOU8CE& DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

'Billions of dollars]
IJutlays

lieeeipts
Nationa . defense
Period

Total

Fiscal year or period:
187.8
1969
193. 7
1970
188. 4
1971__
1972
208. 6
232. 2
1973
264. 9
1974
281. 0
1975 _ _ _ _
299. 2
197G __
_ _
Transition quarter _ __ 81. 7
356.9
1977
400. 4
1978 (estimates)11. _ _
1979 (estimates) _ _ _
439. 6
Cumulative total first 3
months:
Fiscal year 1977___
Fiscal year 1978.

76.2
84.5

Indi- Corpovidual ration Other
income income
taxes
taxes

87.2
90.4
86.2
94. 7
103. 2
119. 0
122.4
130. 8
38.7
156.7
178. 8
190. 1
36. 3
40.4

36.7
32.8
26. 8
32. 2
36. 2
38. 6
40.6
41. 4

8.5

54.9
58. 9
62.5
9.4

11.6

63. 9
70.5
75.4
81.7
92.8
107. 4
118. 0
127. 0
34.5
145.2
162. 6
187. 0

30.5
32.6

i Estimates from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 197-9.
NOTE.—Earned income credit payments in excess of an individual's tax liability
are classified as income tax refunds beginning 1976 and as outlays prior to 1976.




Total
Total

Department of
Defense,
military

Interna- Health
and
tional income In- Other
affairs security terest

211.4
232. 0
247. 1
269. 6
326. 1
365. 6
94.7
401.9
462. 2
500. 2

79.4
78. 6
75. 8
76.6
74.5
77.8
85. 6
89. 4
22. 3
97.5
107.6
117.8

77.9
77.2
74 5
75. 2
73.3
77.6
85. 0
88. 0
21. 9
95.6
105.3
115.2

4.6
4.3

99. 0
113.3

22.6
25.5

23.3
24.9

1.3

184,5

i9ae

4. 1
4.7
4.0
5.6

6. 9

5.6

2. 2

4.8
6.7

7. 7

1. 1

49. 0
56. 1
70. 1
81.4
91.8
106. 5
136. 3
160. 0
41. 4
175.8
191.9
209.7

38.1
43.8
49. 0

35.7
39. 3
41.8
48. 8
53.9
51.7
66. 5
76. 0
21. 5
85.7
112. 1
116.0

43.0
45.7

11. 1
11.9

21.0
29. 1

15. 8
18.3
19.6
20.6
22.8
28. 1
31. 0
34.6
7.2

Source: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

33

FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL

ACCOUNTS BASIS

According to preliminary estimates for calendar 1977, Federal receipts rose $41.6 billion and expenditures $37.2
billion, yielding a deficit of $49.6 billion, $4.4 billion less than in 1976.
BILLIONS OF DOLURS

440

440
400

I

160

I

!

-

I

l

l

I

I

I t

I

40 SURPLUS
HI Hi mm *»m

—40

40

mm m i i a!«|
ii

^ KM v* u*

-H.H.i

DEFICIT

— so

I I P 111 1
II
i i i ^i i
1 1
i

jin

'_QA

-170

-120
1949

1970

1972

1971

1973

1974

1?7 5

1977

'1976

CALENDAR YEARS
SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
I^ederal C•rovernm ent expeinditures

Federal C*overnm<snt receip ts

Period

Corporate
Total tax and profits
nontax
tax
receipts accruals
T>ersonai
1
J.

Fiscal year:
1974
271. 8
1975
283. 6
1976
314. 1
1977"
364.0
Calendar
vear :
1974
288.6
1975
286. 9
1976. _ __ 332. 3
J977*
373.9
1976: I
318.4
II— 329. 1

III._ 337. 1

IV___
1977:1
IL___
Ill—
IV".

344. 5
364. 9
371. 2
373. 2

Indirect
business
tax and
nontax
accruals

GrantsSubsidies Less :
ContriPurin-aid
Wage
less
to State Net
chases Transbutions
current accruals
Total of goods fer pay- and interest surplus of less
for
social inand
ments local
paid Govern- disgovernservices
ment en- bursesurance
ments
terprises ments

122. 6
127. 3
137.2
165. 5

43. 7
42. 1
52.2
57.4

21. 4
22. 1
24.2
24 6

84.2
92. 1
100.5
116.5

278. 8
328. 7
372.3
411.8

104. 6
117. 9
126. 5
140.7

104. 7
134. 2
156. 8
169.7

41. 6
48.4
57.5
66. 0

19.8
21. 9
25.4
29.3

8.0
5.7
6. 1
6. 1

131. 1
125. 6
147. 3
170.7
138.0
143. 9
150. 3
157. 1
170. 0
168. 6
168.6
175.5

45.9
43. 1
55.9
59.5
54.4
57. 0
56.9
55. 1
55.4
59.9
59.5

21. 7
24.0
23.4
24.8
22.7
23.2
23. 7
23. 8
24. 2
24. 6
25.4
25.2

89.9
94.2
105. 7
118.9
103. 2
105. 0
106. 2
108. 4
115. 4
118. 1
119. 7
122. 4

299. 3
357. 1
386. 3
423.5
378.7
375. 3
390. 6
400. 4
403. 7
411. 5
432. 1
446. 7

111. 1
123. 3
130. 1
145.4
127. 6
128. 5
130. 2
134. 2
136. 3
143. 6
148. 1
153. 8

117. 6
149. 1
162. 0
173. 1
160. 2
157. 8
163. 9
166. 3
170. 7
169. 3
174. 8
177. 6

43.9
54.6
61.0
67. 6
58. 5
56. 8
63. 1
65. 5
62, 0
63. 6
72. 7
72.2

20.9
23. 3
27.2
29.5
26.2
26. 7
27. 3
28.5
28. 6
29. 1
29. 4
30.9

5.3
6.7
5. 9
7.9
6. 2
5. 5
6. 1
6.0
6. 1
5.9
7.2
12.3

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and Office oi Management and Budget.

34




-0.2
—.4
.0
.0
-. 5
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0

Surplus
or
deficit
(-),
national
income
and
product
accounts
— 7. 0
-45.0
— 58.2
— 47. 8
— 10.7
— 70. 2
— 54. 0
-49. 6
— 60. 3
— 46. 2
— 53. 5
-55.9
-38. 8
-40. 3
-58.9

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
[1967=100]
In dustria . produc;tion (seiasonally adjuste d)
Period

1971
1972
1973—
1974
1975
1976
1977*
1977: Apr...
May._
June.July...
Aug...
Sept*..
Oet*_,_
Nov..
Dee*

United CanStates ada

109.6
119.7
129.8
129.3
117.8
129. 8
137. 1
136. 1
137.0
137.8
138.7
138, 1
138.5
138,8
139.3
139. 6

GerFrance many

Japan

128
135
145
148
137
149

121. 5
130.0
141.7
145.8
139.0
145.4

155.8
167.2
193.3
187.4
167.5
190.3

150.3
151.2
152.2
150.7
151. 4
151. 3
151. 6
152. 6
_ __

152
200. 8
151
196.7
199.4
156
195.4 1 151
197.0
152
198. 6
149
197.9
203. 3
155

Consumer f >rices (uiiadjuste< i)

United
Italy King- United CanStates ada
dom

133.6
138.7
147.7
145.1
137.1
149. 1

117.5
122.7
134.6
140.6
127.6
143.5

110,8
113.2
122.5
120.3
114.5
116.0

152
151
152
152
152
153
152
153

144.9
144.4
136.1
135.9
132.8
140.9
136.0
142. 7

117.5
119.2
114.6
117.7
117. 6
117.6
115.6
116.3

121.3
125.3
133.1
147.7
161.2
170.5
181. 5
179.6
180.6
181.8
182. 6
183. 3
184. 0
184.5
185.4
186. 1

GerJapan France many

Italy

126.5
132.3
147.9
1840
205. 8
224.9

123.5
131.1
140.7
160.0
178.9
196,1

242. 6
244.9
243.6
243. 0
243.0
247. 3
248.6
245. 7

210.0
212.0
213.6
215. 5
216.7
218.6
220.3
221. 1

114.4
121.0
134. 1
159.7
186.8
218. 1
256.0
249.5
252. 6
254.3
255.8
258.2
263. 9
266.7
270.7
272. 0

115.6
121.2
130.3
144. 5
160.1
172.1
185.9
182.5
184.0
185.3
187. 1
187. 9
188. 9
190. 8
192. 0
193.3

112.7
119.0
127.2
136. 1
144. 2
150.7
156.6
156. 2
156. 9
157.6
157.4
157.3
157. 1
157. 3
157. 5
157.9

United
Kingdom

128. 5
137. 6
150.3
174.4
216.5
252. 4
292.4
289.6
291.9
294.9
295. 3
296. 7
298. 3
299.6
301. 0
302. 6

Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, Bureau
of International Economic Policy and Research, Office of International Economic
Research, in International Economic Indicators.

U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Mereh andise e xports

Merc] landise im ports
General im ports 3

]Domestic3 exports

Period

Total
domesFood, Crude ManuFood, Crude
tic and
bever- mate- Manu- Total
2
foreign Total * 2 bever- mate- facfac(c.i.f.
rials
ages,
ages,
tured Total and to- rials
tured value) 4
exand to- and
and
goods
goods
ports
fuels
bacco
bacco
fuels
Custom s value

F- a.s. valu e »

Monthly
average :
5,902
1973
1974
_ „ „ „ 8,159
8, 159
1974
8,928
1975
9, 567
1976
10, 009
1977
1976: Dee.___ 10,397
9,599
1977: Jan
Feb-,_ 9,808
10, 072
Mar
9,970
Apr
May_._ 10, 395
10, 112
June
July... 10, 150
9, 563
Aug
10, 916
Sept
Oct
9, 190
Nov
9, 304
11, 030
Dec

5,811
8,045

1,078
1,269

895
1,317

3,728
5,294

5,790
8,416

8,045
8,803
9,427
9, 825

1,269
1, 399
1,436
1,329
1,379
1, 250
1,265
1, 451
1, 350
1,376
1, 315
1,366
1,305
1,430
1,040
1,256
1, 577

1,317
1,266
1, 341
1, 528
1,475
1,409
1,574
1,482
1,684
1,789
1, 575
1,607
1,247
1,477
1,451
1, 475
1,495

5,294
5,913
6,437
6,704
7,324
6,459
6,483
6,745
6,479
6,794
6,700
6,695
6,531
7,473
6, 258
6, 369
7,512

8,354
8,010
10, 057
12, 235
11,020
11, 269
11, 674
12, 459
12, 593
11, 616
12, 932
12, 476
12, 232
12, 631
12, 288
11, 386
13, 059

,

1
Total excludes Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program.
2 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.
* Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.
4
C.i.f. (cost, insurance, and freight) imrort value at first port of entry in the
United States. Eatr. for 1972 are estimates.




Mei-chandisci trade
balance
Exports
Ex(f.a.s.) ports Exports
less
(f.a.8.) (f.a.8.)
imless
less
ports
im- imports
(cusports
(c.i.f.)
\
toms (ff.a.s.)
value)

770
892
F.a.s.
892
827
991
1, 179
1,142
1, 150
1,261
1, 291
1,468
1,354
1, 170
1, 107
1,071
1,106
980
897
1,347

1, 120
2,653
value 5
2,672
2,716
3, 456
4, 397
3,808
3,946
4, 111
4, 964
4,572
3,974
4,829
4,459
4,231
4,674
4,471
4,472
4,175

3, 750
4,684

6, 131
9,000

4, 602
4,257
5,398
6,434
5,832
5, 861
5,920
6, 069
6,244
6,313
6,629
6,631
6,724
6,807
6, 650
6, 077
7, 474

9, 000
8,616
10, 797
13, 058
11, 789
12, 059
12, 463
13, 283
13, 419
12, 404
13, 810
13, 330
13, 051
13, 484
13, 121
12, 127
13, 933

112
-257

-195

-229
-841

-841
-257 — 195
852
312
918
-583 — 490 -1,230
— 2, 312 -2, 226 — 3, 050
-720 — 623 -1, 392
— 1, 758 -1, 670 -2, 460
-1, 956 -1,866 -2, 655
-2, 484-2, 387 -3,212
-2, 707-2, 623 -3, 449
-1,326 -1,221 -2,009
-2, 934 -2, 820 -3, 698
-2, 408-2, 326 -3, 180
-2, 721 -2, 670 -3,488
-1, 778 -1,715 -2,569
-3,182 -3,098 -3,931
-2, 163 -2, 082 -2, 823
-2, 121 -2, 030 -2, 903

6
F.a.s. (free alongside ship) value basis: at U.S. port of exportation for exports
and at foreign port of exportation for imports.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

35

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
The merchandise trade balance deficit increased further in the fourth quarter. For the year 1977 the deficit was $31.4
billion compared with $9.3 billion in 1976.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
10

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
10

1969

1970

1977

SOURCft DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISEtS

[Millions of dollars J quarterly data seasonally adjusted]
Merchandise 12

Period
Exports

Imports

Net
balance

Direct
expenditures

1970
... 42, 469 -39,866 2,603 -4,855
1971
43, 319 -45,579 -2,260 -4, 819
1972
49, 381 -55,797 -6,416 -4, 784
1973
71, 410 -70,499
911 -4, 629
1974
98, 306 -103,673 -5, 367 -5,035
1975— _
107, 088 -98,043 9, 045 -4, 795
1976—.-.- 114, 694 -124,014 -9,320 -4, 847
1977"
120, 402 -151, 803 -31, 401
1976: I
27, 000 -28,343 - 1, 343 160
-1,
IL_._ 28, 380 -29, 955 - 1, 575 228
-1,
III— 29, 603 -32,411 -2,808 -1, 237
. - IV_._ 29,711 -33,305 -3, 594 -1,222
1977:1
29, 457 -36,612 -7, 155 -1,329
II
30, 589 -38,397 -7, 808-1,403
III *„ 30, 867 -38,429 -7, 562-1,431
IV *>__ 29, 489 -38,365 -8, 876

Sales

1, 501
1,926
1, 163
2, 342
2,952
3, 919
5, 213

Net
balance




Private 3

U.S.
Government

-3, 354 3, 605 -112
-2,893 5,575 -956
-3, 621 6,074 -1,888
-2,287 7,806 -3,010
-2,083 11, 978 -3,234
-876 9,377 -3,423
366 13, 041 -3,233

1,095
1, 189
1, 472
1. 457
1,845
1,714
2,008

* Excludes military grants.
2
8 Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage.
Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct
investments in the United States are excluded from net investment income and
included in other services, net.

36

Netiiivestment income

Milita ry trans actions

-65
-39
235
235
516
311
577

3,210
3,025
3, 455
3,351
4, 121
4,399
4, 202

-773
-745
-788
-927
-869
-895
-987

NetBaltravel Other ance
and
on
trans<- serv- goods
ices,
porta- net 8
and
tion
servreceipts
ices l

Remittances,
pensions,
and
other
unilateral
transfers *

-2,023 2, 190 2,912
-2,315 2,509 -340
-3,028 2,789 -6,088
-3, 086 3, 185 3, 520
-3, 105 3,970 2, 160
-2, 552 4,594 16, 164
-2, 145 4,888 3,596

-3,294 -382
3,701 -4,041
-3,854 -9, 942
-3,887 -367
-7, 188 -5,028
-4, 612 11, 552
-5,023 - 1, 427

-669
-337
-458
-681
-953
-785
-727

1, 192 1, 552
1, 176 1, 505
1, 239
875
1,279 -337
1,293 -2, 995
1,338 -3, 389
1,494 -2, 950

Balance
on
current
account

- 1, 029
523
-1, 015
490
-1, 936-1, 061
-1, 045 -1, 382
-1, 163 -4, 158
-1,215 -4, 604
-1,352 -4, 302

Nof E.—Merchandise trade data revised for 1977. Other data to be revised later.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
Foreign assets in the United States grew slightly less in the third quarter of 1977 than in the second, but the increase
in official assets was greater. The increase in U.S. assets abroad in the third quarter was smaller than in the second.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS •

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

30!

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

20

20
CHANGE IN
FOREIGN ASSETS
IN THE U.S., NET

10

10

-10

-20

-20

-30

-30
1977

1969

COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCEi DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
U.S. assets abroad, iact
[increase/eapita 1 outflow (-)]

Period
Total

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974__
1975
1976

Other
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
official Govern- private
reserve
ment
l2
assets 2
assets
assets

Forei gn assets in the U.S.. net
[incr<3ase/capitiil inflow (+)1 2
Foreign oflicial
ass ets
Total
Total

2,477 - 1, 589 - 7, 052 5,923
-6, 164
2, 348 - 1, 884 -9,763 22, 445
-9,299
32 -1,568 -8,392 21, 127
... -9, 929
-14,666
209 -2, 645- 12, 230 17, 753
-27,029 - 1, 434
365 — 25, 960 33, 612
-31, 548
-607 -3,463 -27,478 14, 336
-42, 959 -2, 530 -4,213 -36, 216 34, 520

3, 847
4, 051
3, 070
6,977

2,
3,
1,
6,

-388
-909
1, 627 2, 510
6
-825 -9,464 13, 781
151 -1,175 -2, 372 12, 923
"""""""I

5, 719
7,908
8,243

5, 007 -3, 209
7,452
5,873
7,924
4, 680

i Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDR), convertible currencies, and
the U.S. reserve position in the IMF.
3
Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.




7, 362
-984
27, 405 —4,450
10, 322 10, 422
5, 145 11, 454
10, 257 22, 631
5,259
7,376
13, 007 16, 575

6, 856
7,385
8,201
12,079

-723 -9,254
-773
1976: I..... -10, 751
-944 -7, 257
II..-.. -9, 779 -1,578
-8, 409 -407 -1,405 -6,597
III_._
228 -1, 142-13, 108
IV.-.. -14,022
331
1977: I
- 10, 283
II
III "__ -3,396
IV ».

6,907
26, 895
10,705
6,299
10, 981
6, 960
17, 945

Other
Assets of foreign
foreign
assets
official
reserve
agencies

323
308
251
125

3,009
3, 333
5, 131
5, 102

Stati stical
disere pancy
Allocations
of
nn-^j. -I
1 otai
special (sum of
drawing
the
rights
items
(SDR) with sign
reversed)

U.S.
official
reserve
Of
assets,
which:
net 1
Seasonal (unadadjust- justed,
end of
ment
discrep- period)

867
-244
717 -9,822
710 -1,966
-2, 720
-1, 555
5, 660
9,866
3, 372
717
1, 905
129
1,268 -2, 622
3, 325
1, 780

14, 487
12, 167
13,151
14, 378
15, 883
16, 226
18, 747
16,
18,
18,
18,

941
477
945
747

1,317
524 19, 120
1, 106
— 215 19, 156
-5, 225 -2, 506 18, 988
19, 317

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury.

37

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Contents
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
Gross National Product
Gross National Pr4cluct in 1972 Dollars
Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product
Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures
Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits
National Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Sources of Personal Income
Disposition of Personal Income,
..,
Farm Income
Corporate Profits
Gross Private Domestic Investment
,
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
_._.._._

Page
.-. —
........
.-._..,

....

,

..

. _. _
,,,

•

.
-..-..

1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
Status of the Labor Force
.
Selected Unemployment Rates
Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
.-...
Productivity and Related Data, Private Business Economy

11
12
13
14
15
15
16

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures., _
New Construction
.
.~..
.
New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates
....... _.._.._ ._ _..- _ ...
Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade. .
_..
^ _. -.._ ._ .
Manufacturers* Shipments, Inventories, and New Orders
_, _ .
_...-

17
18
19
19
20
21

.«-.

PRICES
Wholesale Prices.
,
,_..„.___...
Consumer Prices. .,-..-......................._........,_
-. -..-,.-. _ _ .-. -. _ _. -* _ -..-..-..
Changes in Wholesale Prices...._ ............~..~.... —..~..-.,~. _ .-. — _ ^ ,- ^ —. _. _ _.
Changes in Consumer Prices,-....
.
.._ ~ _ ^..«, ^ .-..-, _ _ ^ ^.
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers....._..-....._ ._. ^ _ .^ .^. M .^ _ .. .^ .. ^.

MONEY, CREDIT,

22
23
24
24
25

,

SECURITY MARKETS

Money Stock
,
_._«__.
_..-.
Private Liquid Asset Holdings—Nonfinancial Investors.......-..-..-._..-.. , ^
Consumer Instalment Credit. . _
....-..-..-.... , _ . « . _ . ^ , _ _ _ _ . .
Bank Loans, Investments, and Reserves
_.
_ _ .^ _ .^ . .......
Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business .. .^ _ .~.
Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations
-.....- .-........_
Interest Rates and Bond Yields
,
_. _. ^ ^ _ ^..
Common Stock Prices and Yields
.~..-...... .^.._, ^..-. ^. _ ^ .-..-..

26
27
27
28
29
29
30
31

FEDERAL
Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays and Debt
^ .^ _ ^. ^ M
Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function.-. ~ _ ^ ^ M .- .
Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis..-........-..........._._ M ._.-...

.

32
33
34

Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries..-..
..
.
U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports. .
._ _. _..
._ _. _ _. ^.. _. ^ ^. ^
^..
^.... _. ^. ».,
U.S. International Transactions
^.....-.......... .^.... _. _. _ +.. ^. ^..............-....................................... _.

35
35
36

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS

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