Full text of Economic Indicators : January 1972
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92d Congress, 2d Session Economic Indicators January 1972 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1972 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) WILLIAM PROXMIRE, Wisconsin, Chairman WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES SENATE JOHN SPARKMAN (Alabama) J. W. FULBRIGHT (Arkansas) ABRAHAM RIBICOFF (Connecticut) HUBERT H. HUMPHREY (Minnesota) LLOYD M, BENTSEN, Jr. (Texas) JACOB K. JAVTTS (New York) JACK MILLER (Iowa) CHARLES H. PERCY (Illinois) JAMES B. PEARSON (Kansas) RICHARD BOLLING (Missouri) HALE BOGGS (Louisiana) HENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin) MARTHA W. GRIFFITHS (Michigan) WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD (Pennsylvania) WILLIAM B. WIDNALL (New Jersey) BARBER B. CONABLE, Jr. (New York) CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio) BEN B. BLACKBURN (Georgia) JOHN R. STARK, Executive Director JAMES W. KNOWLES, Director of Research LOUGHUN F. M C H U G H , Senior Economist COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS HERBERT STEIN, Chairman EZRA SOLOMON Economic Indicators prepared under supervision of FRANCES M, JAMES [PUBLIC L A W 1 2 0 — 8 1 S T C O N G R E S S ; C H A P T E R 2 3 7 — 1 S T SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at 25 cents a single copy or by subscription at $3,00 per year (foreign, $4.00) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C 20402 Subscribers who wish to receive it at an earlier date after release may take advantage of provisions for airmail subscriptions. The domestic airmail subscription price is $3.60 additional per year. The 1967 edition of the Historical and Descriptive Supplement to Economic Indicators, which describes each series and gives annual data for years not shown in the monthly issues, is available at 70 cents a copy from the Superintendent of Documents, Government Printing Office. li TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING THE NATION'S INCOME, EXPENDITURE, AND SAVING Gross national product rose $191/a billion in the fourth quarter to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,073 billion. For the year 1 9 7 1 , gross national product totaled $1,047 billion, an increase of $723A billion from 1970. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Persons Government Disposable personal income Net receipts Period 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969_ 1970 1971» 438.1 473. 2 511.9 546. 3 591.0 634. 2 687.8 741. 2 10.7 12.0 13.0 13. 9 15. 1 16. 7 17. 9 18. 6 427. 4 461. 3 498. 9 532. 4 575. 9 617. 5 669. 9 722. 6 401.2 432.8 466.3 492. 1 536. 2 579. 6 615. 8 662. 2 26.: 2 28. *1 32., 5 40. <i 39. 13 37. < 54. 1 60. <1 174. 1 189. 1 213.3 228. 9 263.5 295. 6 300. 5 320. 8 70.7 78.4 94. 2 1970: I II___ III... IV._. 667.6 685,7 696. 2 701.5 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.3 650. 667. 678. 683. 1 9 2 2 604.0 613.8 620.9 624.7 46. 2 54.2 57.4 58.5 1971:1 II. III IV »„ 772.0 739.6 748.5 754.8 ' 18.4 18.6 18.8 18.8 703. 6 721. 0 729. 7 736. 0 644.9 657.4 668.8 677.7 58.6 63.6 61.0 58.4 Surplus or deficit income and product accounts 4a 7 16a 2 108.0 192.7 217. 2 206. 3 212.8 175.4 186.9 212.3 242. 9 270. 3 288. 2 313. 6 341. 1 49. 9 55.5 62. 8 70.7 78. 4 94. 2 108. 0 128.7 137.0 156.8 180. 1 199. 6 209. 7 219. 4 233. 1 -1.4 2.2 1. 1 — 13. 9 -6.8 7 4 — 13 1 — 20. 3 296.6 301.8 301.7 301.9 82.7 97.5 96.8 99.8 213.9 204.3 204,9 202. 1 300.0 314.0 316.9 323.7 82.7 97.5 96.8 99.8 217.3 216.5 220.1 223.7 -3.4 -12.2 -15.2 -21.7 312.3 317.8 322.0 101.4 109. 1 110.3 110.7 210.9 208.7 211.7 329.3 338.7 344. 1 351. 7 101.4 109. 1 110.3 110.7 227.9 229.6 233.8 240.9 -17. 1 -20.9 -22.2 46.7 49.9 55.5 62.8 127.3 139.2 157.9 International Business Gross Total Statis- national Net exports of ^joods Net product income tical Excess of and service. 3 transfers Gross or discrepor transfers Excess to forGross expendor eigners of retained private receipts ancy iture of net earn- domestic invest- by perinvest-4 ment sons and Exports Less: Equals: exports ings 3 _Net i ment Imports exports <-)• Government Period 1964. 1965._ 1966 1967. 1968._. 1969... 1970 1971 »_„ 1970: I II.. Expenditures PerLess: Equals: Personal sonal Less: Less: Interest Total consump- saving Tax Trans- Equals: Total Trans- Equals: paid and excludand tion or Purfers, fers, ing Total* transfer expend- disnontax interest, Net expend- interest, chases payinterest itures saving receipts and receipts itures of goods and ments and or and (-) sub- 2 sub- 2 services to fortransaccruals sidies sidies eigners fers 76.2 84. 7 91. 3 93. 0 95. 4 95. 6 99. 3 „„„ ,-- Ill IV 1971: I II III IV p 1 112. ' 7 96. 2 99. 1 100. 4 101. 5 / 107. 6 111. 9 113. 0 94. 0 108. 1 121.4 116. 6 126. 0 137.8 135.3 150. 8 -17.8 -23. 4 -30.1 -23.5 -30.6 -42. 1 -36. 0 -38. 1 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.9 3. 1 3.4 37.1 39.2 43.4 46.2 50.6 55.6 62.9 65.5 28.6 32.3 38. 1 41.0 48. 1 53. 6 59. 3 64.8 8.5 6.9 5.3 5.2 2.5 2.0 3.6 .7 131.2 134.1 138.6 137. 3 -35.0 -35.0 -38. 2 -35.8 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.3 61. 5 63.2 63.7 63. 2 58.0 59.0 59.7 60.5 3.5 4.2 4.0 2.7 143. 3 152. 9 150. 8 156.5 -35.7 -41.0 -37.8 3. 1 3.4 3.7 66.2 66.5 68.2 61. 2 61.5 66.4 68.2 63.2 4.7 3.5 Personal income (p. 5) less personal tax and nontax payments (fines, penalties, etc.). * Government transfer payments to persons, foreign net transfers by Government, net interest paid by government, subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises, and disbursements less wage accruals. 1 Undistributed corporate profits, corporate inventory valuation adjustment, capital consumption allowances, and private wage accruals less disbursements. Does not Include retained earnings of unincorporated business, which are included in disposable personal Income. .1 .0 -2.0 -5.7 633.7 688.0 750. 9 794.6 .4 866.9 .9 933.2 -.4 978.6 2.7 1, 051. 5 963. 2 -. 5 -1.1 974.3 -.7 986.7 .7 990. 1 -4.1 -2.4 -2.2 -1.3 -3. 1 -1. 0 -.7 - 1 . 6 1, 025. 2 3. 3 1, 044. 9 3.7 1, 058. 1 -4. 1 -4. 5 -4.7 -7.3 -5.8 -3.2 -1.6 -4.3 -4.9 -4.7 5.5 -2.7 632.4 084.9 749.9 793.9 864.2 929. 1 974. 1 1, 046. S 956.0 . 968. 5 983.5 988.4 1, 020. & 1, 040. 0 1, 053. 4 1, 073. 0 * Private business investment, purchases of capital goods by private nonprofit institutions, and residential housing. *Net foreign investment less capital grants received by U.S., wltli sign changed. Source: Department of Commerce. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OR EXPENDITURE Gross national product (seasonally adjusted) rose at an annual rate of 7.7 percent in the fourth quarter, according to preliminary estimates. When adjusted for price changes, the rate was 6.1 percent. For 1971 as a whole, gross national product increased by Vh percent, real gross national product by 2 % percent, and prices by AV% percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,100 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,100 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED A N N U A L RATES 1,000 1,000 900 900 800 800 700 700 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES 600 600 500 500 400 400 - GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES \ 200 ' • ' " • " ' •••» 100 «...•••••"•" I ,.!•••••«.,„„.«••••"••••• NET EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES J L J 1965 L 1966 J L _L 1967 200 100 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT J L 1968 J SOURCE* DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period 19G1 1962 19G3 19G4 1965 1966. 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971" 1970:1... II... III.. IV.. 1971: I . . . II.. III. IV* 1970 L 1971 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Government purchases of goods and Total Personal Gross Net services gross Total conprivate exports national gross sump- domestic of goods Federal State product national tion investand Total and National in 1958 product expend- ment services | Total defense1 Other local dollars itures Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 5.6 107.6 520. 1 335.2 71.7 50.2 47.8 9.6 57.4 5. 1 117. 1 63. 4 529. 560,3 355. 1 83, 0 51. 6 11.8 53.7 5.9 122.5 651. 590.5 375.0 87. 1 50. 8 13.5 58.2 64. 2 8.5 128.7 681. 632.4 401.2 94.0 50.0 15.2 63,5 65.2 6.9 137.0 617. 684, 9 432.8 108.1 50. 1 16.8 70.1 66.9 5.3 156.8 658. 749.9 466. 3 121.4 60.7 17. 1 79.0 77. 8 5.2 180. 1 90.7 676. 793.9 492, 1 116.6 72. 4 1&4 89. 4 2.5 199,6 706. 864.2 536. 2 126.0 78.3 20. 5 100.8 98.8 2.0 209. 7 99. 2 721 929, 1 579. 6 137.8 78.4 20.7 110. 6 3.6 219.4 720. 974. 1 615. 8 135. 3 75.4 21.9 122. 2 97.2 . 7 233.1 739. 1, 046. 8 662.2 150.8 71.4 26. 2 135.4 97,6 719. 956.0 131, 2 604.0 3.5 217,3 100.2 78.9 21.3 117. 1 721. 968. 5 613. 8 134. 1 4.2 216, 5 96.8 75. 1 21.6 119.7 723. j 983. 5 620.9 138.6 4.0 220. 1 96, 1 74. 2 21.9 124.0 715. j 988.4 137.3 624.7 2.7 223.7 95.9 73.2 22.7 127.9 729. 1, 020. 8 644. 9 143.3 4. 7 227.9 96.4 72.6 23.7 131.6 735. 1, 040. 0 657.4 152.9 . 1 229.6 96.0 71.4 24. 6 133.6 740. 1, 053. 4 668.8 150,8 . 0 233.8 97.6 70.2 27,4 136.2 751. 1, 073. 0 677.7 156.5 -2.0 240. 9 100.6 71.5 29.2 3.40. 3 » This category corresponds closely with budget outlays for national defense, shown on p. 36. . * \9?oss , n a U o n a l product In current dollars divided by gross national product In 1958 dollars. J L 1969 Source: Department of Commerce. Implicit price deflator for total GNP, 1958= 100* 104. 62 105. 78 107. 17 108. 85 110. 86 113. 94 117. 59 122. 30 128. 21 135. 29 141. 56 132. 82 134.32 135. 97 138. 07 139. 88 141. 34 142. 21 142. 74 NATIONAL INCOME Compensation of employees rose about $11 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter after a rise of $7 1 /2 billion in the third. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES flftO 800 ^ TOTAL NATIONAL INCOME 700 700 And $00 COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES crtn 500 - 400 400 —•*"••*** CORPORATE PRO=ITS A N D INVENTORY VALUATIOr^ ADJUSTMENT PROPRIETORS' A RENTAL INCO/WE i—\—i 100" 100 NET INTEREST - n t 1965 1 1966 1 1 ! 1967 1 1 1 1 1 1968 t 1969 1 1 1 1970 1 1 1 1 1971 SOURCE i DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS (Billions of clollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates J Total national income Period Compenof employees l Business and professional Rental income of persons Proprietors' income Farm 2 Net interest Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment Total Profits before taxes Inventory valuation adjustment 1961_ 1962 1963 1964__ 1965 19f>6 1967 1968.. 1969 1970___ 1971 P 427. 3 457. 7 481. 9 518. 1 564. 3 620. 6 653. 6 711. 1 763. 7 795. 9 850.8 302. 6 323. 6 341. 0 365.7 393.8 435. 5 467. 2 514. 6 565. 5 601. 9 641.8 12.8 13. 0 13. 1 12.1 14. S 16. 1 14. 8 14. 7 16.8 15.8 16.3 35. 6 37. 1 37. 9 40.2 42.4 45. 2 47.3 49. 5 50.3 51. 0 52. 1 16. 0 16.7 17. 1 18.0 19.0 20.0 21. 1 21. 2 22.6 23.3 24. 3 10. 0 11. 6 13. 8 15.8 18.2 21.4 24.4 26.9 29.9 33.0 35. 6 50. 3 55. 7 58. 9 66.3 76.1 82.4 78.7 84.3 78. 6 70.8 80. 7 50. 3 55. 4 59. 4 66.8 77.8 84.2 79.8 87.6 84. 2 75. 4 85.2 -0. 1 .3 -.5 -.5 -1.7 -1.8 -1. 1 -3.3 »5.5 -4.5 -4.4 1970: I . II Ill IV 785. 793. 802. 802. 593. 598. 606. 609. 2 5 5 3 17.8 16.6 14.5 14.4 50. 2 51.0 51.4 51. 5 23. 0 23. 2 23.4 23.7 31. 8 32. 6 33.4 34. 2 69.8 71.5 73.0 69.0 75.6 75.8 78.5 71.6 -5. S -4.2 -5.5 -2.6 627.3 638. 0 645.6 656. 5 14.8 15. 2 17.0 18. 1 51.6 51.9 52.3 52.5 23.8 24.2 24.5 24.6 34. 8 35.4 35.9 36. 4 79. 5 82.5 80.0 83.0 86.9 85.8 1971: I II III IV* _ 8 4 2 1 831. 7 847. 3 855. 2 1 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 4.) * Excludes farm profits of corporations engaged in farming and therefore differs from net farm Income (including net inventory change) on p. 6 which includes such profits. Source: Department of Commerce. -3.5 •-44 -5.8 -4.0 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $9 billion in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $883% billion. A l l major industry groups shared in the $9% billion increase in wage and salary disbursements. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS I 900 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 I SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 800 800 TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME 700 700 600 <500 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 500 500 - - * • — 400 400 300 300 OTHER INCOME 200 200 ..,....»«•••••«"•" TRANSFER PAYMENTS 100 1965 1966 1967 1968 100 1969 1970 SOURCE. DIPAKTMENT OF COMMERCE Period 1963 1964 _ 1965 1966 19671968 1969 1970 1971»_ 1970: Nov. Dec 1971: Jan.. Feb.. Mar. Apr May June July. Aug.. Sept, Oct.. Dec *.._ 1 Total personal income 4Q>5. 5 497. 5 538.9 587.2 629. 3 688.9 750. 3 803. 6 857.0 815. 7 820.9 829. 9 832.4 838. 3 843.0 848.6 868, 6 857, 7 866. 1 869, 9 871. 2 874.9 883.8 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS (Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted Wage Other Proprietors' income Rental and Divilabor salary Business income of dends disburse- income 2 Farm and proments fessional persons 14.9 311. 1 37. 9 17.1 16.5 ia i 16,6 333. 7 40. 2 18. 0 17.8 12. 1 18.7 358.9 42.4 19.0 19.8 14. S 20.7 394.5 45. 2 20,8 20, 0 16. 1 22. 3 423. 1 47.3 21. 4 21. 1 14. 8 25.4 464. 9 49. 5 23.6 21. 2 14.7 28. 2 509. 6 50.3 24.4 22.6 16.8 30.8 541.4 51.0 25.0 23. 3 15.8 33. 7 574. 2 52. 1 25. 5 24, 3 16.3 545.9 14.5 32.0 51.4 23. 7 25. 5 551.5 51. 5 32.2 23.9 23.8 14. 6 558.7 32.4 51. 6 14 7 23.9 25. 6 560.6 51.5 32,6 14.8 23.5 25. 7 564.8 51,7 14 9 32.8 24.0 25. 5 567.7 51.8 15. 1 33. 1 24. 1 25. 5 572.0 33.4 15. 2 51. 9 24.2 25.6 573.2 15.3 33.7 52. 1 24.3 25. 2 572.9 16. 1 33.9 52,2 24.4 25. 6 579.2 17,0 52, 3 34. 1 24 5 25. 7 579.8 17,8 52. 3 34.3 24 5 25.7 581. 3 18.0 52.4 34, 4 24.5 25. 7 584.8 18. 1 52.5 34. 6 24 6 25.7 594. 6 18. 1 52, 6 34.8 24 6 24.3 Compensation of employees (see p. 3) excluding employer contributions for social Insurance and wage accruals less disbursements. * Employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds: compensation for Injuries; directors' fees; military reserve pay; and a few other minor Items. 1971 annual rates] Less: PerPersona Transfer sonal con- Nonagri* interest paytributions cultural income ments for social personal insurance 31.4 35. 3 11.8 448. 1 34 9 36.7 12. 5 480.9 38. 7 39.9 13.4 519.5 43.6 44 1 17.7 566.3 4a 0 51.8 20,5 609.4 52.9 59.6 22.8 668.8 58.8 65.9 26. 3 727.7 64 7 79. 6 28.0 781.4 94 7 31. 2 67. 5 834 0 66. 7 84 5 28. 3 795.0 66. 8 85. 1 28. 6 800.5 66.7 86.8 30.5 808.6 66. 6 87.8 30. 7 810.8 66. 4 89. 1 30.9 816.6 G6. 6 89.8 30.9 821. 1 66.7 90.5 31.0 826.5 66. 9 109. 0 31. 1 846.5 87. 4 96. 2 31. 1 834 8 68. 1 96. 5 31.4 842.4 68. 8 97. 9 31.4 845.3 68.7 97.4 31.4 846.4 68.0 97.6 31. 6 850.1 68.5 98,2 32.0 859.0 3 Personal income exclusive of net income of unincorporated farm enterprises, farm wages, agricultural net interest, and net dividends paid by agricultural corporations. Source: Department of Commerce. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME The savinq rate declined in the fourth quarter, in large part because acceleration of estate and gift tax payments temporarily held down disposable personable income. BILLIONS OF.DOLLARS ' BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 700 DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 2,500 2,500 2,000 2,000 1965 1970 1966 1971 COUNCIt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPAKTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Less: Personal Personal tax and income nontax payments Per capita disLess: Personal outlays posable personal Equals: Personal consumption income Equals: Disexpenditures 2 Personal posable Total saving Current 1958 personal personall Durable Nondollars dollars durable Services income . outlays goods goods Dollars Billions of dollars 1963 465. 5 60. 9 1964. 497. 5 59. 4 1965. „ 538.9 65.7 1966 587. 2 75.4 1967._ 629. 3 83. 0 1968. _. esa 9 97. 9 1969._, 750. 3 116. 2 1970 803. 6 115. 9 1971* 857.0 115.8 404. 6 438. 1 473. 2 511. 9 546.3 591. 0 634.2 687. 8 741. 2 384. 7 411. U 444.8 479. 3 506. 0 551. 2 596. 3 633. 7 680. 8 53. 9 59.2 66.3 70.8 73. 1 84.0 89. 9 88.6 100.4 Saving as percent of Populadistion posable (thou-3 personal sands) income (percent) 168. 6 178. 7 191.1 206.9 215. 0 230.8 247. 6 264.7 278.8 152.4 163.3 175.5 188. 6 204. 0 221. 3 242. 1 262. 5 283.0 19. 9 26.2 28.4 32. 5 40.4 39.8 37.9 54. 1 60.4 2,139 2,284 2,436 2,605 2,751 2,946 3,130 3,358 3,581 2,016 2,126 2,239 2,336 2,404 2, 4872, 535 2,595 2,660 4. 9 6.0 6.9 7.9 (>. 0 6.4 7. 4 6. 7 6.0 7.9 8. 1 189, 197 191, 833 194, 237 196, 485 198, 629 200, 619 202, 599 204, 800 207, 006 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1970: I___ 784 3 I I - 803.8 III. 809.8 r 816.7 116.7 118.0 113. 5 115. 2 667. 6 685.7 696. 2 701.5 621.5 631.5 63a 9 643. 0 88.6 90.7 90.4 84.9 259. 4 262. 9 265. 5 270.9 256. 1 260.2 265. 0 268.9 46.2 54.2 57.4 58.5 3,272 3,353 3,395 3,410 2,570 2,606 2,613 2,588 1971: I „ 833.5 853.4 I I I . 864. 6 IV»_ 876.6 111. 6 113.8 116. 0 121.8 722.0 739. 6 748.5 754.8 663. 3 676.0 687.6 696.5 96.6 99. 1 102.8 103.2 273.2 277.8 280. 2 283.9 275.0 280.5 285.8 290.6 58.6 63.6 61.0 58.4 3,500 3,577 3,611 3,632 2,631 2,663 2,669 2,675 rv __ 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers, •nd personal transfer payments to foreigners. 3 See p. 2 for total personal consumption expenditures. a2 8.3 8. 1 8.6 8. 1 7.7 204, 204, 205, 205, 012 526 107 729 206, 259 206, 760 207, 276 207, 824 a Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are for July 1; quarterly data are for middle of period, interpolated from monthly data. Source: Department of Commerce. FARM INCOME Net farm income excluding and including inventory change (seasonally adjusted) increased about 6 percent in the fourth quarter. ^ ^ _ _ _ _ _ « _ _ _ ^ BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 70 70 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED A N N U A L RATES <50 60 REALIZED GROSS FARM INCOME 1 • - - ~ 50 50 ^ / — 40 40 30 30 tMET FARM INCOME INCHJDING NET INVENKDRY CHANGE ^ \ * 20 ^ 10 10 ' 1 1 ! 1965 1 1966 1 1 1 1967 1 1 1 1968 1 f I ! 1 1 Personal income received by total farm population - - . 1970: I II III. IV.. From all sources 20.6 20.6 23.6 24.9 24.0 25. 1 27.7 27.5 28.0 From From farm nonfarm sources sources Net to farm operators 12.1 11.3 13.5 14,4 13. 1 13, 2 14. 9 14.2 14.5 8.5 9.3 10.0 10.5 10.9 11.9 12. 8 13. 3 13.5 II- III IV* 1 Cash receipts from marketings. Government payments, and nonmoney Income furnished by farms. 1 Inventory of crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year. Also, see footnote 2. p. 3. ' Based on Census of Agriculture definition of a farm. The number of farms is held constant within a year. Net income per farm including net3 inventory change ProducCa&h tion ex- Exclud- Includreceipts 1967 penses ingnetin- ing net in- Current from Total 1 ventory ventory2 dollars dollars4 marketchange change ings Billions of dollars Dollars 13.2 42.3 12.6 3,708 37.4 29.7 4,030 12.3 42.6 13.1 3,564 37.2 29.5 3,832 15.0 44.9 30.9 14.0 4,487 39.3 4t 723 16.3 49. 7 33.4 16.3 5,019 43.3 5, 121 34. 8 14.9 49. 0 14. 2 4,730 42.7 4,730 36.2 14. 8 50. 9 14.7 4,854 44. 1 4, 667 38.7 16.9 55.5 16.8 5,685 48. 1 5,216 40.9 15.9 56. 6 15.7 5,451 49. 2 4,782 42. 9 16. 3 58. 6 15.7 5,676 51. 6 4,770 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 57. 9 40.2 50. 5 17. 7 17.9 6, 120 5,460 57. 1 49.7 40.7 16. 4 16. 6 5, 680 5,030 55.7 14.5 48.4 41.2 14, 6 4,990 4,380 55.6 48. 3 14. 2 14.5 4, 960 41. 4 4, 310 1971: I _ , . 6 ! Income received from farming Realized gross 1963 1964 1965 I960 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971* 1 1971 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF AG«ICUtTUR£ Period I 1 1970 1969 56.8 57. 6 59. 3 60. 9 49.7 50.6 52.3 53. S 42. 2 42.8 43. 0 43.6 14.6 14.8 16. 3 17.3 14. 9 15. 3 17, 1 18.2 5, 180 5,320 5,950 6,330 4,430 4,510 4,960 5,280 * Income in current dollars divided by the index of prices paid by farmers for family living items on a 1967 base. Source: Department of Agriculture. CORPORATE PROFITS According to preliminary estimates, corporate profits before taxes rose 13 percent in 1 9 7 1 . Profits after taxes were up 15 percent. BILLIONS Or DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 20 20 1971 1965 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE* DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Corporate profits after taxes Period 1963 1964. 1965 1966.. 1967 1968 1969. 1970. _ 1971* Corporate profits (before taxes) and inventory valuation adjustment TransCorpo- CorpoManufacturing portation, rate rate comtax profits NonAll All Durable durable munibefore liabilindusgoods ity goods cations, other * taxes Total tries indusand industries public tries utilities 59.4 13.0 26. 3 28.8 20.6 15.8 9.5 58.9 66.8 14.9 28.3 32.7 23.5 17.8 10.1 66.3 77.8 16.6 31. 3 39.3 25.6 22.8 11. 1 76. 1 84.2 18.6 34.3 42.6 27.9 24. 0 11. 9 82.4 79.8 18.0 33.2 38.7 29. 1 20.7 10.8 78.7 87.6 19. 3 39.9 41.7 32.0 22. 4 10. 6 84. 3 84.2 17. 5 39.7 36. 0 32.7 18.4 10.0 78.6 75. 4 16.6 34. 1 29.5 33. 3 13. 0 8.0 70. 8 85.2 17.9 37. 7 34. 1 38. 2 16. 2 8.4 SO. 7 1970: I___ II— III_. IV__ 1971: I . . . II— III.. IV*. 1 2 8 Profits plus capital consumption allow-3 ances 33. 1 38.4 46. 5 49.9 46.6 47.8 44. 5 41.2 47. 4 16.5 17.8 19.8 20.8 21.4 23.6 24.4 25. 0 25. 5 16.6 20.6 26.7 29. 1 25. 3 24.2 20. 0 16.2 21.9 31. 8 33.9 36.4 39.5 43. 0 46. 8 51. 3 56.2 61.9 64.8 72.3 82.9 89.5 89.6 94.6 95.8 97.4 109.3 69. 8 71. 5 73.0 69.0 31.1 31.5 30.6 25.0 14.3 14.9 13.8 8.8 16.7 16.5 16.8 16. 2 8.2 7.8 7.9 8. 1 30.5 32.2 34.5 35. 9 75. 6 75. 8 78.5 71.6 34. 1 34.5 35.6 32.3 41. 5 41.3 42.9 39.2 25.0 24.9 25.2 25.0 16. 6 16.4 17.7 14.3 54,4 55.7 56.7 58. 0 95.9 96.9 99. 6 97. 2 79.5 82. 5 80.0 34.4 35.0 33.0 17.2 17.0 14.8 17.2 18. 1 18. 1 8.4 8.5 8.5 36. 7 39.0 38.6 83.0 86.9 85.8 38.3 39. 1 37.5 44.8 47.8 48.2 25.6 25.4 25. 7 25.3 19. 2 22. 4 22.5 59.4 61.0 62.7 64.4 104.2 108. 7 110.9 Includes all other industries and financial institutions. Includes depreciation and accidental damages. Corporate profits after taxes plus corporate capital consumption allowances. 72-415°—72- Total Corporate capital conUn~ Dividend distrib- sumption uted payments profits allow-? ances Source: Department of Commerce. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT Gross private domestic investment (seasonally adjusted) rose sharply in the fourth quarter as fixed investment and inventory investment turned positive after a decrease in the third quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 160 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 160 SEASONAUY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 140 140 "GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC" INVESTMENT 120 120 100 too 80 80 PRODUCERS' DURABLE EQUIPMENT 60 60 RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES 40 CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES 20 1965 1966 1968 1967 1969 1970 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1971 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS fBillions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates I Fixed investment Period Total gross private domestic investment Total Structures Total Total 1961 1962 1903 1964 19G5 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971*_ 1970: IIIII. IV. 1971: I . . . IIIII. IV * 71.7 83.0 87. 1 94. 0 108,1 121.4 116.0 126. 0 137,8 135. t\ 150. 8 131.2 134. 1 138. 0 137. 3 143. 3 152. 9 150, 8 156.5 Source: Department of Commerce. 8 Residential structures N onresidential 69.7 77.0 81.3 88.2 98. 5 106.6 108.4 118.9 130.4 132. 5 148. 7 130. 8 132. 1 133.5 133.6 140.2 148. 3 152.0 154, 6 47.0 51.7 54,3 61. 1 71.3 81. 6 83.3 88.8 98,6 102. 1 108. 2 100.8 102. 1 104. 8 100. 8 104.7 108.3 109. 3 110. 4 18.4 19.2 19.5 21.2 25.5 28.5 28. 0 30. 3 34.5 36.8 38. 1 36. 1 36. 6 37.3 37.1 36.7 38.5 38. 7 38,6 Nonfarm 17.7 18.5 18.8 20.5 24. 9 27.8 27.3 29.6 33. 7 35.9 37.2 35.3 35. 7 36. 5 36. 3 35.8 37.6 37.7 37.0 Producers' durable equipment Total Total 2a 6 32.5 34.8 39. 9 45. 8 53. 1 55.3 58.5 64. 1 65.4 70. 1 64.7 G5. 6 67. 5 63.7 68. 1 69. 8 70. 6 71.8 Nonfarm 25.8 29.4 31.2 36.3 41.6 4a 4 50.0 53.6 59.2 60, 0 62. 6 59.7 60. 6 61.6 58. 1 61.0 62.4 62. 7 64.4 22.6 25.3 27.0 27.1 27. 2 25.0 25. 1 30. 1 31. 8 30.4 40, 6 30.0 29.9 28.7 32. 8 35,4 40. 0 42. 7 44. 2 Nonfarm 22.0 24,8 26.4 26.6 26.7 24,5 24. 5 29. 5 31. 2 29. 7 40. 1 29.4 29. 3 28. 1 32.2 35.0 39.5 42. 1 43.6 Change in business inventories Total 2,0 6. 0 5.9 5.8 9.6 14 8 8.2 7. 1 7.4 2.8 2. 1 .4 2. 1 5. 1 3.7 3. 1 4. 6 -1.2 1.9 Nonfarm 1.7 5.3 5.1 6,4 S.6 15.0 7.5 6.9 7.3 2.5 1.5 .1 1.8 4.7 3.3 29 41 -2.0 1.0 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Businessmen have projected a 9 percent rise in plant and equipment expenditures this year according to a survey conducted in November and December. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1001 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ' 1100 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 80 80 TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT 60 NONMANUFACTURING „....»*•"* '"••.....I.I""*** 40 1 MANUFACTURING 20 20 J 1967 1966 -1/ I 1969 1968 1971 1970 i 1972 •v J / S E E FOOTNOTE 3 BELOW. COUNCri OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES* SECURFDES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Transportation Manufacturing Total Period 1962 1963_. 1964 1965 1966 1967. 1968 1969 1970 3 1970: III IV 1971: I II III 1972: i s 113 1.02 1.22 1.74 2. 29 2.56 2. 51 3.03 1.87 2.50 1.65 1. 58 1.50 1. 68 1.64 1.48 1.59 1. 68 1. 23 1.37 1. 43 4.90 4. 98 5.49 6. 13 7.43 8.74 10.20 11.61 13. 14 15.20 17.58 3.85 4.06 4.61 5.30 6. 02 6.34 6.83 8.30 10. 10 10.89 1.96 1.56 3. 24 3.08 1.22 1.22 13.84 13.68 10.62 10.20 17.00 15.97 2. 04 2. 08 2.23 2.18 1.46 1.88 1.72 1.64 1. 29 2.28 1.68 2.20 1.33 1.40 1.48 1.30 14.64 14.91 15.87 15. 37 10.70 11.21 10.73 17.39 17.72 17.85 2.09 2. 12 2. 18 1.60 16. 32 Nondurable goods Mining 15.06 16. 22 19. 34 23.44 28. 20 28.51 28. 37 31. 68 31. 95 30. 21 31. 42 6.79 7. 53 9.28 11.50 14.06 14. 06 14. 12 15. 96 15. 80 14.29 15. 02 8.26 8.70 10.07 11. 94 14. 14 14.45 14.25 15.72 16. 15 15.92 16.40 1.40 1.27 1.34 1.46 1.62 1.65 1.63 1. 86 1.89 2. 13 2.37 1.02 1.26 1.66 1.99 2.37 1.86 1.45 1. 86 1.78 1.67 1.88 0. 52 _ 38. 39 40. 77 46. 97 54.42 63. 51 65.47 67. 76 75.56 79. 71 81.47 88. 90 „ 81. 88 78. 63 32. 15 30.98 15.74 14.92 16.40 16. 05 1.86 1.94 79. 32 81. 61 80.75 84. 02 30.46 30. 12 29. 19 31. 12 14. 21 14.06 13.76 15. 11 16. 25 16.06 15.43 16. 01 87. 14 88.47 31.26 31. 18 15.94 15.31 15. 12 16.06 1 Excludes agricultural business; real estate operators; medical, Jerol. educational* and cultural service; and nonprofit organizations. * Includes trade, service, construction, finance, and insurance. •Estimates based on expected capital expenditures as reported by business in October-December 1971. Includes adjustments when necessary for systematic tendencies in expectations data. NOTE.—Annual total is tbe sum of unadjusted expenditures; it does not Commercial and other 2 Other Durable goods _ Communication Public utilities Tota, 1971 1972 3 1 Railroad Air .40 9.99 10.99 12.02 13.19 14.48 14.59 15.14 16.05 16. 59 18.11 31 . 7 3 30 . 20 31 . 5 7 57.28 necessarily coincide with the averago of seasonally adjusted figures. These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE Total employment rose by 78,000 (seasonally adjusted) in December to a record 80.1 million, but the civilian labor force rose even more and unemployment edged up b y 32,000. ' MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 90 90 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 85 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE 85 80 80 75 75 70 70 65 65 : to 5 0 PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED UNEMPLOYMENT 1*ATE 8 4 -• TTT"1 o 1965 1 Hn mr \ 1967r 196* 1968 Period Total labor force (including Armed Forces) 1967... 196S__. 1969... 1970.,. 1971... 80, 793 82, 272 84, 239 85, 903 86, 929 1970: Nov. Dec. 1971: Jan~ Feb_ Mar, Apr_, May. June July. Aug. Sept. Oct., Nov. Dec. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Unemployment Labor Total Civilian employment force rate (percent of labor civilian labor particiforce UnemUnemCivilian NonNonpation force) (includ- labor ployAgriployagriagriing Total ment force culTotal ment Season- rate, culculUnadArmed tural ad- unad-l tural tural justed ally Forces) justed justed Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over Percent 74, 372 70, 527 2,975 80, 793 77, 347 | 74, 372 3,844 70, 527 2,975 60.6 3.8 75, 920 72,103 2,817 82, 272 78, 737 75, 920 3,817 72, 103 2,817 60.7 3.6 84, 239 77, 902 74, 296 2,831 80, 733 77, 902 3,606 74, 296 2,831 61,1 3.5 85, 903 4,088 82, 715 78, 627 75, 165 78, 627 3,462 75, 165 4,088 61.3 4.9 79, 120 75, 732 4,993 86, 929 84, 113 79, 120 3,387 75, 732 4,993 61.0 5. 9 Unadjusted Seasonally adjusted Civilian employment 86, 386 86, 165 78, 741 78, 515 75, 515 75, 563 4,607 4,637 85, 628 85, 653 85, 598 85, 780 85, 954 87, 784 88, 808 88, 453 86, 884 87, 352 87, 715 87,541 77, 238 77, 262 77, 493 78; 204 78, 709 79, 478 80, 681 80, 618 79, 295 80, 065 80, 204 80, 188 74, 74, 74, 74, 75, 75, 76, 76t 75, 76, 76, 77t 5,414 5,442 5,175 4,694 4,394 5, 490 5,330 5,061 4,840 4,570 4,815 4,695 361 415 452 699 111 559 710 853 851 595 942 240 86, 456 86, 498 83, 417 78, 648 83, 485 78, 427 86', 705 83, 729 78, 718 86, 312 83, 362 78, 475 86, 385 83, 455 78, 446 86, 670 83, 788 78, 732 86, 836 83, 986 78, 830 86, 217 83, 401 78, 600 86, 728 83, 931 79, 014 87, 088 84, 313 79, 199 87, 240 84, 491 79, 451 87, 467 84, 750 79, 832 87, 811 86,116 80, 020 87, 883 86, 226 80, 098 1 Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population. NOTE—Seasonally adjusted data have been revised and do not agree with those published beginning February 1971. They are subject to correction when tho official annual revision is published, 10 197 1970 1969 •16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER. SOURCE. DEPARTMEKT OF IA6O* 1 3,379 3,395 76, 169 4,869 75, 032 6,058 5. 5 5.6 6.8 6.1 61.2 61.0 3,406 3,285 3,387 3,540 3,412 3,301 3,374 3,407 3,363 3,416 3,419 3,400 75, 312 75, 190 75, 059 76,192 75, 418 75, 299 75, 640 75, 792 76, 088 76, 416 76, 601 76. 698 6.6 6,6 6.3 5.7 5.3 6.5 6.2 5. 9 5.8 5.4 5.7 5. 5 6.0 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.1 5.8 5. 9 6. 1 6.0 5. 8 6.0 6.0 60,5 60.5 60.3 60.4 60.4 61. 6 62.2 61.9 60.7 60.9 61.1 60.9 Source; Department of Labor. 5,011 4,887 6,009 5,056 5,156 4,801 4,917 6}U4 5,040 4,918 5,095 5, 127 SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND PART-TIME EMPLOYMENT The overall unemployment rale was 6.0 percent (seasonally adjusted) in December, unchanged from the November rate. The unemployment rate has stayed near 6 percent since late 1970. PERCENT 10 PERCENT 110 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, ALL CIVILIAN WORKERS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, EXPERIENCED WAGE A N D SALARY WORKERS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, MARRIED MEN 1970 1965 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) Period Experi- Married Labor force enced men time lost1 Over 40 All wage and hours (wife workers salary workers present) 1967. 1968_ 1969. 1970. 1971. 3.8 3.6 3.5 4.9 5.9 1970: Nov_ Dec. 1971: Jan_. Feb_ 5.8 6. 1 6.0 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.1 5.8 5.9 6. 1 6.0 5. 8 6.0 6. 0 Apr__ May.. JuneJuly. Aug__ SeptOct.. Nov.. Dec. 1 Percent 1.8 3.6 1.6 3.4 1.5 3.3 2.6 4.8 3.2 5.7 Seasonally adjusted 5. 7 6. 1 5. 8 0. 6 5. 8 5. 7 5. 8 5. 4 5. 6 5. 7 5. 5 5. 4 5. 8 5. 9 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2 4 3 2 2 1 3 1 1 2 3 3. 0 3. 4 3. 3 4.2 4.0 3.9 5.4 6.4 20, 920 20, 600 20, 608 18, 925 19, 095 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.3 6. 5 6.4 6. 8 5.Q 6.3 6.5 6.3 6.5 6.5 6.4 18, 647 20, 233 19, 070 18, 463 19, 448 18, 207 19, 505 19, 069 17, 805 17, 949 19, 964 19, 169 20, 249 20, 239 Man-hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part-time for economic reasons as a percent of potentially available labor force man-hours. * Differs from total nonagricultural employment (p. 10), which includes persons with jobs but not at work for such reasons as vacation, illness, bad weather, and industrial disputes. 'Includes persons who worked part-time because of slack work, material shortages or repairs, new job started, or job terminated. 1971 Persons at work in nonagricultural 2industries by hours worked per week Under 35 hours Part-time for Part-time for economic reasons economic reasons 35-40 hours Total Usually Usually Usually Usually partfullpartfulltime 4 time 3 time 4 time 1 Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over 32, 616 13, 290 1,060 853 32, 658 14, 785 895 820 34, 201 15, 210 955 855 33, 537 18, 222 1,201 995 35, 752 16, 298 1,184 1,256 Seasonally Unadjusted 31, 704 21, 993 1,250 1, 103 1, 249 | 36, 249 16, 433 1,309 1,020 1, 382 i 35, 687 16, 576 1,442 973 1, 377 I 33, 881 18, 966 1,267 1,123 1, 227 35, 830 16, 267 1,284 1,093 1, 242 35, 767 16, 650 1,242 988 1, 309 1,102 1,081 36, 540 16, 041 1, 219 36, 723 14, 646 1, 142 1,515 990 1,939 34, 528 13, 898 1,094 1, 134 1,752 35, 307 13, 329 1,262 1, 173 1,094 1,126 36, 888 15, 081 1,056 I 1,166 32, 957 21, 039 1,080 1, 161 37, 495 16, 294 5 1,120 5 1, 191 1, 250 1, 153 37, 428 16, 799 1, 045 1, 103 « Primarily includes persons who could find only part-time work. * Average hours worked: usually full-time, 23.4; usually part-time,17.9. 17. * See note, p. 10. Source: Department of Labor. adjusted 1, 164 1, 151 1, 107 1, 231 1, 214 1, 185 1, 285 1, 186 1, 316 1, 296 1,204 1, 346 1, 366 1, 301 11 UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In December/insured unemployment under State programs averaged 147#000 lower than a year earlier. The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate dropped from 4.2 percent in November to 3,8 percent in December. MILLIONS OF PERSONS MILLIONS OF PERSONS WEEKLY INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT (STATE PROGRAMS) 1969 1968 0 I > t I t 1 I f 1 I I I I I I I I I t 1 I f I I I 1 I \ \ 1 I t I I \ I t I I I ( I ( I I \ I I I OCT. SEPT, NOV. APRIL MAY JUNE JULY MAR. JAN. FEB. Aua SOUtCti COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS DEWUTMINT O F . U B C * Period 1968.. 1969 1970 1971 * 1970: Nov Dec 1971: Jan* Feb* Mar * Apr » iVlay *_.._ June v July * Aug v Sept *._._ Oct v Nov *____ Dec Week ended: 1971: Dec 1 1 . . 18.. 1972: Jan 2 5 . . 1™ 8».. 15'., 22 9 t Not charted. Source; Department of Labor. 1 12 _LJ_ DEC All programs Insured Total unem- benefits Insured paid Covered ployunem(milemploy- ment ploy(weekly Lions ment ment averof dolage) lars) Initial claims State programs Insured unemBenefits paid ployment as perTotal Average Exhaus- cent of covered employment tions (milweekly lions of check Unad- Seasonad- dollars) (dollars) justed ally justed Thousands Weekly average, thousands 57, 976 1, 187 2, 191. 0 1,111 201 16 59, 999 1, 177 2, 298. 6 1,101 16 200 59, 528 2,070 |4, 170. 1 1,805 25 296 2,313 4, 963. 3 2,176 37 301 r 334 2,233 372.1 5S, 715 2,017 30 »59, 219 2,632 2,369 399 33 501, 4 3, 194 568. 1 2,799 427 39 3,216 2,751 321 599.3 39 3,091 2,577 275 683,6 41 2,756 2,283 257 586.0 44 2,443 2,001 238 470.8 42 2,332 1,893 250 494.8 43 2,431 1,993 342 452. 1 35 2,349 1,912 282 468.9 35 2,174 1,739 236 425.7 32 2, 129 412.4 1,716 252 40 2,312 1,879 298 420.6 41 2,664 2,222 358 469.4 39 2, 548 2,578 2,679 2,953 3,037 3,084 2,108 2,148 2,242 1 2, 487 1 2, 527 1 2, 524 348 330 341 406 480 396 347 Percent 2.2 2.1 3.4 4.0 3.7 4. 4 5.2 5,2 4.8 4. 3 3.8 3.6 3.8 3. 6 3.3 3.2 3. 5 42 4*6 4*0 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4-2 4*4 4*0 4* 4*6 4*2 3.8 2, 031, 6 2, 127. 9 |3, 848. 5 4, 021. 7 341.9 462.0 527.2 557.9 635.4 541.9 433.0 452.7 400.6 408.9 372.2 390.7 410.8 437.8 43.43 46. 17 50.34 55.49 52.24 52.43 52.83 53. 12 53.00 52.71 52.32 52.09 55.23 56.08 56.25 56.42 56,90 57. 10 4. 0 4. 1 4.2 4. 7 4.8 4.8 NOTE.—For definitions and coverage, see the 1967 Supplement to Economic Indicators. NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 123,000 (seasonally adjusted) in December. Employment increases in mining and transportation were primarily due to the end of strikes. MILLIONS OF WAGE MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED} AND SALARY WORKERS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 76 16 (ENLARGED SCALE) 72 14 ^—n—~i WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE ALL NONAGRICULTURAL. EST* BUSHMENTS 63 12 64 SERVICES - 10 1 40 36 Kir DURABLE MANUFACTURING 12 mrnirtnnii^r- (PRIVATE) 7 10 NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING MANUFACTURI ^G - \ 20 16 GOVERNMENT - 8 CONTRACT .CONSTRUCTION. - \ 12 IF 1 I I 1( " M i t t 1968 . < . i . 1 < . . . i ,i 1969 t i ( 1 i i i i i 1970 , , , , , ) i-LL±4| 1971 1 1 1 | | | 1 t 1 1 IK 1968 1971 1969 1970 DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 1 [Thousands of wage and salary workers; seasonally adjusted] Nonmanufacturing (private) Government Manufacturing (private) Period Total Total NonDurable durable goods goods Total Con- Trans* Whole- Finance, insursale tract portaance, Services Federal State tion and and Mining conand and local struc- public retail real tion utilities trade estate 8,227 627 3,275 4,151 13,245 3, 100 9,551 2,564 8,679 613 3,208 4,261 13, 606 3,225 10, 099 2,719 9,109 606 3,285 4,310 14,084 3,382 10, 623 2,737 9,444 619 3,435 4,429 14,639 3,564 11, 229 2,758 9,830 622 3,345 4,504 14,922 3,690 11, 630 2,705 11,912 3,259 4,481 10, 188 602 15, 175 3,799 2, 665 11, 284 11, 439 11, 626 11, 895 11, 198 10, 589 7,930 8,008 8,155 8,272 8,171 8,019 33, 950 35, 012 36, 288 37, 915 38, 712 39, 228 1970: Nov._ 69, 985 Dec_» 70, 313 18, 517 10,449 18, 796 10, 738 8,068 8,058 38, 797 38, 834 624 623 3,294 3,302 4,506 4,450 14,902 14, 952 3,721 11, 750 2,664 3,731 11, 776 2,661 10, 007 10, 022 1971: J a n . , Feb__ Mar.. Apr__ May. June. July.. Aug.. Sept.. Oct.. Nov*> Dec. 18, 747 18, 684 18, 609 18, 639 18, 702 18, 608 18, 533 18, 457 18, 616 18, 560 18, 603 18, 549 10, 697 10, 642 10, 571 10, 598 10, 651 10, 598 10, 552 10, 485 10, 597 10, 561 10, 571 10, 542 8,050 8,042 8,038 8,041 8,051 8,010 7,981 7,972 8,019 7,999 8,032 8,007 38, 988 38, 963 39, 079 39, 129 39, 209 39, 211 39, 186 39, 229 39, 382 39, 353 39, 422 39, 562 625 622 622 623 622 619 597 609 616 521 521 622 3,271 3,198 3,264 3,282 3,275 3,255 3,228 3,219 3,250 3,290 3,318 3,258 4,507 4,526 4,520 4, 505 4,518 4,500 4,476 4,428 4,460 4,442 4,435 4,459 15, 039 15, 059 15, 074 15, 107 15, 148 15, 135 15, 158 15, 223 15, 273 15, 270 15, 276 15, 330 3,746 3,749 3,758 3,769 3,788 3,807 3,806 3,804 3,821 3,834 3,852 3,847 10, 058 10, 082 10, 130 10, 164 10, 191 10, 198 10, 169 10, 193 10,181 10, 260 10, 287 10, 327 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971*. „ 63, 955 65, 857 67, 915 70, 284 70, 616 70, 689 70, 454 70, 391 70, 480 70, 599 70, 769 70, 657 70, 531 70, 529 70, 853 70, 848 70, 981 71, 104 19, 214 19, 447 19, 781 20, 167 19, 369 18, 608 »Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural itablishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period olch includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed perms, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from Us table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the vilian labor force, shown on p. 10, which Include proprietors, self-employed 11, 800 11, 809 11, 841 11, 843 11, 858 11, 895 11, 921 11, 946 11, 962 11, 996 12, 020 12, 046 2,661 2,662 2,662 2,667 2,667 2,640 2, 643 2,650 2,674 2,675 2,669 2,666 persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establisliments. Source: Department of Labor. 13 WEEKLY HOURS OF WORK - SELECTED INDUSTRIES The average workweek of production workers (seasonally adjusted) in private nonfarm industries was unchanged from November to December. The factory workweek, however, rose 0.2 hour to 40.3 hours, to its highest point since December 1969. HOURS PER WEEK (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) HOURS PER WEEK (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 46 46 MANUFACTURING TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL PRIVATE 44 42 42 •40 40 38 38 36 36 34 M M it t I i i n i ' ' "1968 M i I t M I M I 1 I 134M i1 *I» i » | 1 I M 1 1 I I I ) 1969 1970 1971 «• t ' • ' < ' > » i « i i i i i i « 1968 ' i • I t i i i i 1969 1970 1971 1969 1970 1971 42 RETAIL-TRADE CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION 40 38 36 34 32 30 1968 1969 1970 1971 1968. SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 1 (Average hours per week ] Period 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970,.. 1971* 1970: Nov... Dec... 1971: Jan.... Feb.... Mar.,. Apr __. May., June—. July. , Aug.— Sept,. Oct.... Nov »,. Dec *.. Total nonagricultural private 2 38. 7 38.8 38.7 38.8 38. 6 38.0 37. 8 37.7 37.1 37.0 36.8 37. 1 36.6 36.6 36.8 36.7 36.8 37.3 37.3 37.4 37.0 37.0 37. 1 37.3 Manufacturing Unadjusted 40. 4 37. 0 40.5 37. 3 40. 7 37. 2 41. 2 37. 4 41.3 37.6 40.6 37.7 40.7 37.4 40. 6 37.9 39.8 37.4 39.9 37.2 39.7 36.2 39. 9 37. 4 39.6 36.0 39.4 35. 5 39.7 37.1 39. 5 37. 0 40.0 37.0 40.2 38.0 39.8 38.1 39.8 38.3 39. 8 36. 9 40.0 38.2 40,2 38.0 40.7 36.4 I ? , a t a r e I a t e t 0 P rod uctlon workers or nonsupervisory employees, - Also includes other private Industry groups shown on p. 13. * Includes eating and drinking places. 14 Contract construction Retail trade 3 Total nonagri- j Manufaccultural I turing private 2 Contract construction Retail trade 3 Seasonally adjusted 37. 4 37. 3 37. 0 36. 6 35. 9 35. 3 34. 7 34. 2 33. 8 33.7 33. 4 33.9 33. 1 33. 1 33. 1 33. 3 33. 3 34.0 34.8 34.7 33.7 33. 5 33. 5 34.1 Source: Department ol Labor. 1 1 1 AVERAGE HOURLY AND WEEKLY EARNINGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES Average hourly carninss of private nonfarm production workers rose 2 cents in December to $3.50. Compared to a year earlier, hourly earnings were up by 6.1 percent and weekly earnings were up by 6.6 percent. DOLLARS DOLLARS 240 6.00 AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS 5.00 200 4.00 160 120 3.00 TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL PRIVATE 200 TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL PRIVATE 80 RETAIL TRADE - RETAIL TRADE M i l l II 1.00 1968 Mil t t t 1 1 I ! I t I 40 1971 1970 1969 1968 1969 1970 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS DEPARTMENT OF tABOR [For production workers or nonsupervisory employees] Average hourly earnings—current dollars Average weekly earnings—current dollars Period 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968. 1969. 1970. 1971 p. 1970: Nov Dec 1971: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July AUCL oopt Get Nov" Dec" Total nonagricultural private l $2. 22 2. 28 2 36 2. 45 2. 56 2. 68 2. 85 3. 04 3. 22 3.42 3. 29 3. 30 3. 33 3. 35 3, 36 3. 38 3. 41 3.42 3.43 3. 45 o. 49 3. 49 3.48 3.50 Manufacturing $2. 39 2.46 2. 53 2.61 2.72 2.83 3. 01 3. 19 3.36 3.57 3.39 3.47 3.50 3.51 3.52 3.54 3.55 3.57 3.57 3.56 3. 60 3.60 3.60 3.69 Contract construetion S3. 31 3.41 3. 55 3. 70 3. 89 4. 11 4.41 4. 79 5. 25 5.70 5.46 5. 46 5.53 5.56 5.54 5. 55 5.65 5.63 5.68 5.75 5.86 5.90 5.89 5.91 Retail trade 2 $1. 63 1.68 1.75 1.82 1.91 Z 01 2. 16 2.30 2. 44 2.57 2. 49 2.47 2. 52 2. 54 2. 55 2. 56 2.57 2.58 2. 58 2.57 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 1 Also includes other private Industry groups shown on p . 13. includes eatine and drinking places. 1 Earnings in current dollars, adjusted to exclude the effects of overtime and Interindustry shifts. 72-415°—72——3 1971 Total nonagricultural private l $85. 91 8a 46 91.33 95.06 9a 82 101. 84 107. 73 114. 61 119. 46 126. 54 121. 07 122. 43 121. 88 122. 61 123. 65 124. 05 125. 49 127. 57 127. 94 129. 03 129. 13 129. 13 129. 11 130. 55 Manufacturing Contract construction $96. 56 $122. 47 99.63 127. 19 102. 97 132. 06 107. 53 138. 38 112. 34 146. 26 114.90 154.95 122. 51 164. 93 129. 51 181. 54 133. 73 196. 35 142. 44 212. 04 134. 58 197. 65 138. 45 204. 20 138. 60 199. 08 138. 29 197. 38 139. 74 205. 53 139. 83 205. 35 142. 00 209. 05 143. 51 213. 94 142. 09 216. 41 220. 23 141. 69 143. 28 216. 23 144. 00 225. 38 144. 72 223. 82 150. 18 215. 12 Retail trade 3 $60. 96 62. 66 64.75 66.61 68.57 70.95 74.95 78.66 82.47 86.61 83. 17 83.73 83.41 84.07 84.41 85.25 85. 58 87.72 89.78 89.18 87.62 87.10 87.10 88.66 Manufacturing industries a Adjusted Average. weekly hourly earnearnings, ings, 1967= 1967 1003 dollars * 85.7 $106. 58 87.8 108. 65 90.3 110. 84 92.6 113. 79 95.7 115. 58 100.0 114,90 106.2 117. 57 112. 6 117. 95 119.7 114.99 127.7 117. 43 121.9 113. 57 123.8 116. 25 124.8 116. 28 125.3 115. 82 125.8 116.64 126.5 116. 33 126.9 117. 55 127.3 nai2 127.8 116.66 12a 3 116.04 129. 1 117.25 117. 65 12a 9 118. 04 129.0 122.00 13a 1 t Earnings in current dollars divided by the consumer price index** Source: Department of Labor. 15 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION In December, industrial production (seasonally adjusted) rose further by 0.7 percent and was 3 percent above the level of a year year earlier. About one-half of the December increase reflected the recovery in coal production from the strike-curtailed level. Index, 1 9 6 7 = 100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) Index, 1967=100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 130 150 UTILITIES AND MINING TOTAL 140 120 JX ^Z 130 110 too 120 90 110 V\ . . - , - * • ' ' 60 11 t m i \ ii it i 1 M I I I 1 > it I t M l 196? 1968 t I l tI1 IM I I 130 120 MANUFACTURING NONDURABLE MARKET GROUPS ^+++* 120 110 ^ MATERIALS- \ | N T E R M E D l A T E PRODUCTS nll 110 100 DURABLE \ y FINAL PRODUCTS 100 90 80 t i t i i 11 t "ii3 I 1971 V 1970 1969 1968 1971 1970 MINING 100 1 M \ 1 1 \ 1 t t 1H f 111 1 H t 1 i f | i i I i i i i i 1970 1968 1969 i i i r i t t i t i t ( ! ! 1 1 1 r I ! 1 1 r i i i t I i i > t t 90 1968 1971 1969 SOURCE. BOARD O f GOVERNORS O f THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period Total industrial production 1962 1963 1964 1965. 1966 1967 1968 _ . 1969 1970 1971" ,.„ 1970: Nov Dec 1971: Jan _ Feb Mar Apr May June July „ Aug Sept Oct Nov » Deo* 72.2 76.5 81.7 89.2 97.9 100.0 105.7 110.7 106.7 106.5 102.6 104.6 105. 3 105. 7 105.5 106.2 107.0 107.2 106.1 105.3 106.2 106.4 107.0 107.8 1971 1970 COUNOt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967=100 , seasonally adjusted] Industry Market Manufacturing Final products InterMining mediate MateConUtilities NonEquiprials Total Durable durable Total sumer ment products goods 71.4 75.8 81.2 89.1 98.3 100.0 105.7 110. 5 105.2 104.9 100. 2 102.4 103. 3 103.9 103. 2 104.4 105.7 105.6 104.9 103.6 104.9 105.6 105.7 106.5 69.0 73.5 79.0 88.5 99.0 100.0 105.5 110.0 101.5 99.0 93. 8 97. 3 98. 1 98.6 98. 3 99. 1 100.5 100. 1 99, 4 96.6 98.5 99.4 98.9 99.7 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 16 \ ^ 75.1 79.2 84.4 90.0 97.3 100.0 106.0 111.1 110.6 113.3 109.6 110.0 110. 9 111.7 110,4 112. 1 113.3 113.7 113.0 113.8 114.2 114.5 115. 6 116,2 85.6 89.0 91.1 93,9 98.4 100. 0 103.9 107.2 109.7 106.9 113.7 112. 1 111. 1 no. i 111.4 110.4 108. 6 108.9 105,7 106.5 106.0 97.5 101.4 107.1 70. 2 75. 1 81.9 86.9 93.6 100. 0 109.4 119. 5 128. 5 135. 3 129. 6 130. 2 129.6 132.2 131.5 133.2 132. 1 135.6 138,7 137.0 138.4 137.8 137.4 137.2 70.8 74.9 79.6 86.8 96, 1 100.0 105.8 109.0 104. 4 104. 6 100.2 102,2 102.9 103.0 102. 5 103.6 103.9 104.5 104. 9 105.0 104.6 105.0 106.3 106.4 77.7 82,0 86.8 93.0 98.6 100.0 106. 6 111. 1 110. 3 115. 7 107.7 110.8 112.8 112.9 112.7 114.6 115.7 116. 1 116, 0 116.0 115.0 116.0 117.9 117,8 61.9 65. 6 70. 1 78.7 93. 0 100. 0 104,7 106. 1 96. 1 89. 2 89. 8 90.3 88.9 89.3 88,4 88. 1 87.8 88.2 89. 3 89.6 90.2 89.7 90.0 90,4 76.9 81. 1 87.3 93.0 99.2 100.0 105.7 112.0 111. 9 112. 8 111.6 112.1 110. 9 112,5 112.0 112. 4 113.5 112.4 113.8 110.7 112.5 113.3 114,4 114.6 72.4 77.0 82.6 91, 0 99.8 100.0 105.7 112.4 107. 8 106.8 102.8 105.4 106.5 106.8 107.1 107.5 108.9 109.0 105.3 104.0 106.2 105.8 105.6 107.5 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED MANUFACTURES Among the durable manufactures, production (seasonally adjusted) of primary metals, machinery, and fabricated metals advanced in December. In the nondurables sector, the textile and chemical groups posted production gains. Index, 1967=100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) Index, 1967=100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 120 130 100 90 80 80 70 1968 1969 Index, 1967=100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 130 CHEMICALS, PETROLEUM, AND RUBBER 1971 1970 1971 Index, 1 9 6 7 — 1 0 0 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED! FOODS AND. TOBACCO 100 90 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCEi BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [1967=100, seasonally adjusted] Nondurable manufactures Durable manufactures Period Primary metals 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967. 1968 1969 _. 1970. 1971 v 1970: Nov Dec 1971: Jan Feb Mar Apr May t»jJune J July . Auc Sept _ Oct Nov p Dec * - _ ___ - -- - - --- ... - - -- - Transpor- Lumber Textiles, Paper Chemicals, Foods Fabripetroand apparel, cated Machin- tation and and print- eum, and tobacco equipand metal ery prodrubber ing ment leather products ucts 78.2 84.3 95. 7 104.0 108. 8 100.0 103. 2 114. 1 106. 9 101. 2 98.4 104. 3 108. 1 105.5 106. 6 108.7 114.3 108. 1 98.2 81.0 93.9 95.6 93.3 96.5 75.9 78.4 83. 3 92.6 100. 5 100.0 106, 3 113.6 109.4 107. 4 104 5 106. 2 105.4 106. 6 104.9 108.5 108.5 108. 5 110.8 108.0 105.7 106.9 107.3 108.5 64 8 67.9 74 3 84 1 98.6 100.0 101.9 106.8 100.4 95. 6 94 9 94 8 93.4 94 2 94 0 94 2 95. 3 95.2 97.4 95. 6 96.3 97.0 96.6 97.9 69.3 75.9 79. 6 91.3 101.2 100.0 109.7 107.6 90.3 91.3 71.7 86.8 91.1 92.6 91.3 89.5 90.9 91.7 88.5 91. 1 91.7 92.5 91.4 90.8 82.0 85.8 91.0 94 7 98.4 100.0 104 8 108.6 106.3 106.4 106.8 109.7 110.8 110.3 112.5 110.0 111.0 115.4 113.1 113.9 117.3 119. 1 84 3 86.9 91.9 97.8 101.7 100.0 104 9 105.9 100.2 100.6 96.0 97. 1 98.6 98.0 97.3 99.8 101.5 102.4 100.2 100.1 102.5 103.9 100.4 102.0 74 3 78.4 84 5 90.5 98.9 100.0 104 2 109. 1 107.8 107.5 106.4 105.0 107.1 108. 1 104 6 106.9 106.9 106.0 106.8 ioa2 108.3 109. 1 109.0 108.7 64 5 70.0 75.9 83.8 94 1 100.0 109.6 118.4 118.2 124 5 117.8 11R9 118.2 120.9 120.5 122.4 124 2 125.3 124 0 126.2 127.3 126.1 128.5 130.0 84 0 87.0 90.6 92.6 97.0 100.0 103.6 107.5 110.8 113.4 111.9 112.5 113.9 113. 1 112.2 112.9 113.6 113.7 113.8 112.8 111.1 112.4 116.2 115.4 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 wr^xuJY INDICATORS OF PRODUCTION Most weekly indicate* of production increased in December. However, cars, trucks, and paperboard decl.ned. i ram Jl F M A M J BILUONS OF KILOWATT HOURS 35 J , J \f 20 SOURCES. AMO0CAN RON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR EDISON mCTWC WSTnUTE, AMD WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE KEPORTS Period Steel produced Thousands Index (1967= of net tons 100) Weekly average: 1965— 1966 1967___ 1969-,-.-. 1970 1971 *_ 1970: Nov.. Dec-, 1971: Jan.. Feb,_ Mar.. Apr,. May_ June, y Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec* Week ended: 1971: Dec 25 1972: Jan 1, 15,. 22*. 1 s 2,521 2,572 2,440 2,515 2,709 2,522 2,305 2,333 2,361 2,545 2,719 2,854 2,929 2,917 2,678 2,249 1, 303 1,794 1,853 1,877 1,979 2 2 1 2 1,948 2, 004 2, 152 2, 312 2, 220 Daily aver je. Includes data for Alaska. Notchi ' 18 a 105.4 100. 0 ioai 111.0 103.4 94.5 95.6 96.8 104 3 111.4 117,0 120.0 119.5 109.8 92.2 53.4 7a 5 76.0 76. 9 81.1 79.8 82. 1 88.2 94.8 91.0 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Bituminous Freight Paperboard Electric Cars and trucks coal mined power produced assembled (thousands) loaded distributed (thousands (thousands (thousands (millions of of short of tons) Total Cars Trucks of cars) kilowatt-hours) tons) i 20,169 21, 971 23, 169 25,244 . 27,588 29, 317 30, 923 28, 306 29,442 31, 200 30, 864 29, 993 28,570 28, 921 32, 551 32, 781 32, 786 31, 887 29, 590 30, 227 31, 218 31, 063 29, 533 32, 392 * 32, 324 * 33, 057 8 2 2 2 2 a 1,735 1,798 1,868 1, 827 1,884 2,012 1,984 2,197 2,079 2,058 1,954 2,102 2,197 2,026 1,963 1,829 2,118 2,129 906 1,763 2,118 562 570 540 543 543 515 484 514 454 488 487 506 523 526 525 424 493 502 445 441 449 410 446 439 479 507 490 506 501 442 488 506 516 508 513 510 467 522 510 531 521 478 213.7 199.3 172.9 207.6 195.8 158.9 204.8 108. 0 155.8 220. 3 231, 0 230.2 211.6 232. 4 212. 3 131.8 145.7 215.6 233.6 218.6 171.7 179.4 165.4 142.4 170.1 158. 1 125. 9 164.6 86,7 125.7 181.7 188.8 188. 1 170.6 190.6 169.7 106.5 110.2 172.5 186.8 175. 1 136.9 34,3 33.9 3a 5 37.5 37,8 33.0 40.1 21.3 30.1 38.5 42.2 42. 1 40.9 41.7 42.6 25.3 35.5 43.2 46.7 43.5 34.9 2,135 2, 214 1, 792 1, 930 1, 854 416 390 430 467 463 487 319 422 536 511 178.3 2 .3 225. 1 221.9 205,8 142. 1 .0 179.9 175.5 158,9 36.2 .3 45.2 46.4 46.9 Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, Association of American Railroads, American Paper Institute, and Ward's Automotive Reports. NEW CONSTRUCTION According to preliminary estimates, expenditures for new construction (seasonally adjusted) rose about 1 percent in December. Both private residential and non-residential construction increased while public construction fell slightly. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 140 BILUONS OF DOLLARS 140 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL KATES 120 120 TOTAL NEW CONSTRUCTION 100 100 80 80 PRIVATE — - -"•""•-«»..~ 60 40 40 ,,I , 20 i i i t i I t t i i tk 20 60 60 ^ PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL 40 ALL OTHER PRIVATE ?n 1 1 1 1 1966 1968 1 1967 f 1 1 1 1 1 1 t ! f 1 1 t t 1 t t f .II 1970 1969 1.1.1. Period 1966 1967 1968 1969. 1970__ 1971 9 _._ 76. 0 77. 5 86. 6 93. 3 94. 3 108.6 Aue Sept Oct Nov.. Dec * l 96. 4 9& 3 102. 6 100. 6 102. 3 103. 0 105. 9 107.6 109. 2 110. 0 11L9 110.0 113. 7 113.6 115.1 Total 52.0 52.0 59.0 65.4 66.1 78.8 Private Residential CommerNew cial and Other Total» housing industrial units Billions of dollars 25.7 19.4 26.3 25.6 19.0 26.4 30.6 24.0 13.8 14.7 33.2 25.9 16.2 16.0 31.7 24.2 16.3 iai 42.1 34.2 17. 1 19.7 67.8 69.2 70.7 70.6 70.7 73.0 76.3 77.9 79.9 80.5 82. 1 81.4 81.8 83.2 85.0 32.9 34.1 35.1 35.6 36.5 37.7 39.6 41.5 42.3 42. 7 43.9 44.7 45.1 45.2 46.2 25.0 25.6 26.7 27.6 28.5 29.6 31.0 32.9 34.0 35.0 36.6 37.4 37.5 37.5 38.4 Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. • P. W. Dodge series. Belates to 60 States beginning 1970torvalue index and beginning 1971 for floor space. 20 1972 Federal, State, and local 24.0 25.5 27.6 2& 0 2a i 29.8 15.7 15.6 16.1 16.4 16.4 16.8 17.4 16.8 17.3 18.1 17.9 16.3 16.5 17.1 17.7 Construction contracts* CommerTotal value cial and index, industrial (1967 = floor space 100) (millions of square feet) 94. 8 100.0 113.2 123.7 123.1 144.3 769 694 779 883 743 730 Seasonally Seasonally adjusted adjusted annual rates Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1970: Oct Nov Dec 1971: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July f t 1 1 t 1 I 1 ! • IK COUNCIL O f ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCEi DEPARTMENT OP COMMERCE Total new construction expenditures It 1971 19.2 19.5 19.5 18.6 17.9 18.5 19.3 19.6 20.3 19.7 20.2 20.4 20.3 20.9 21.2 28.6 29.0 31.9 30.0 31.6 30.1 29.6 29.7 29.3 29.5 29.8 2a 6 31.8 30.5 30.2 115 130 132 117 126 142 161 141 147 151 153 154 137 155 160 621 648 656 652 600 785 658 761 754 728 658 849 741 824 807 Sources: Department of Commerce and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. 19 NEW HOUSING STARTS AND APPLICATIONS FOR FINANCING In December private housing starts rose more than 9 percent from the record November rate fo a seasonally adjusted annualTra^e of 2,517,000 unifs-another all-time high. Permits for future starts climbed more than 14 percent to a new record rate. MILLIONS OF UNITS 2.5 2.0 1.5 T.0 ro 1971 COUNCIL O f ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOWCESi DEPARTMENT O f COMMERCE, FEDERAL HOUSING ADMINISTRATION (FHA), AND VETERANS ADMINISTRATION (VA) Period 1966. 1967, 1968, 1971 1970: Nov,. Dec. 1971: Jan.. Feb. Mar _ Apr May« June.July.. Aug.. Sept. Oct__ Nov * Dec*. Total private Total and private public (includ(including ing farm) farm) [Thousands of units] Housing starts Private Total (including farm) Government home programs (nonfarm) Two or more FHA VA units 195.9 165.0 1, 165. 0 386.4 129. 1 36.8 1, 321. 9 1, 291. 6 1, 291. 6 447.7 141.9 52.5 1, 545. 5 1, 507. 7 1, 507. 7 608. 2 147.7 56. 1 1, 499. 6 1, 466. 8 1, 466. 8 656.2 153,6 51.2 1, 469. 0 1, 433. 6 1, 433, 6 620. 7 233.5 61.0 2, 080. 5 2, 048. 2 2, 048. 2 899. 6 301.2 93.8 Seasonally adjusted annual 128.3 126.9 934 759 288 1,693 71 121.4 124. 1 814 354 2,054 1,240 78 114.8 1,725 110.6 946 410 779 76 104.6 1,754 102.2 985 290 769 73 169.3 1,959 1,048 167.9 265 911 83 203.6 1,912 1,098 201. 1 278 814 93 203.5 1,975 1, 124 198.5 265 851 96 196.8 2,000 1,177 193.8 284 823 91 197.0 2,229 1,187 194,3 283 1,042 98 205.9 2,258 1,212 204.5 321 1,046 102 175.6 2,002 1,187 173.8 291 815 97 181.8 2,031 1,159 179.7 299 872 98 174.9 2,303 1,283 172.2 296 1,020 106 152.8 2,517 1,411 149. 6 399 1, 106 101 Total One unit 778,5 843. 9 899.5 810.6 812, 9 1,148.5 'Authorized by issuance of local buildinp permit: in 13,000 permit-issuing places beginning 1967; 12,000 for 1963-66, and 10,000 prior to 1963. 3 Units represented by mortgage applications for new home construction. 20 Proposed home construction New private housing units authorized l Applications for Requests FHA forVA commit- appraisals 2 ments 971.9 1, 141. 0 1, 353. 4 1, 322. 3 1, 351. 5 1, 880. 9 rates 1,523 1,808 153. U 167. 2 168.9 187.6 315. 0 366.8 345 474 "157 149 1,635 1,563 1,627 1,638 1,927 1,849 2,052 2,006 1,900 2, 173 1,952 2,231 371 350 336 347 374 370 383 359 344 353 296 472 190 174 183 210 218 257 228 220 252 233 210 226 99.2 124.3 131.7 138. 2 143.7 217.9 Sources: Department of Commerce, Federal Housing Administration (FHA)* and Veterans Administration (VA). BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES-TOTAL AND TRADE Business inventories (seasonally adjusted) changed little in November while sales were up 2 % percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED] 200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) RETAIL TRADE (ENLARGED SCALE) 25 -DURABLE GOODS STORES TOTAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES 180 20 INVENTORIES 160 15 140 10 JTOTAL BUSINESS SALES 120 SALES 5 100 30* 60 NONDURABLE GOODS STORES INVENTORIES RETAIL INVENTORIES 25 40 20 "V 20 RETAIL SALES t t t i I 1 i i \ i 1969 t i i 1 i t i i t . i i t i t I t i t i t 1970 1 I t t I 1 1 t I t li 15 1972 1971 1969 1970- 1972 1971 SEE^BELOtf. SOURCES; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total business l Retail Wholesale Sales« Period 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 19704 1971 1970: Oct Nov Dec 1971: Jan Feb Mar Apr__. May June July Aug Sept Oct Dec x 2 J Sales 73, 685 ! 80, 276 87, 172 89, 708 | 97, 105 103,178 100,276 | 113,975 i 105,610 | 104,485 ! 106,943 ' 109,346 ; 111,166 I 112,740 _ ^ ! 113, 155 114,303 115,531 114,727 115,064 115,660 1 114, 687 117, 341 Inventories 3 111, 457 120, 900 136, 714 145, 072 155, 238 166, 412 173, 635 179, 488 172, 588 173, 374 173, 635 174, 412 174, 834 175, 536 176, 275 177, 046 177, 403 177, 652 178, 157 178, 924 179, 468 179, 488 Sales 14, 527 15, 595 16, 979 17, 099 18, 329 19, 726 20, 554 22, 194 20, 754 20, 641 20, 718 21, 338 21, 334 21, 676 21, 897 22, 449 22, 716 22, 621 22, 605 22, 549 22, 284 22, 660 The term "business" also includes manufacturing (see page 22). Monthly average for year and total for month. Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. NonInvenDurable durable tories 3 goods Total goods stores stores Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 16, 977 18, 274 20, 691 21, 557 22, 528 24, 363 26, 604 28, 318 26, 003 26, 334 26, 604 26, 646 26, 806 26, 788 27, 046 27, 140 27, 333 27, 866 27, 795 27, 814 27, 928 28, 318 21, 823 23, 677 25, 330 26, 151 28, 490 29, 824 31, 294 33, 952 31, 621 31, 282 31, 761 32, 290 32, 850 33, 274 33, 578 33, 502 33, 827 33, 688 34, 655 35, 219 34, 964 35, 620 s 34, 876 7,049 7,849 8, 192 8,348 9,268 9,626 9,524 10, 945 9,418 8,858 9, 185 10, 003 10, 240 10, 613 10, 747 10, 576 10, 782 10, 747 11, 298 11, 833 11, 695 11, 856 11, 367 14, 773 15, 828 17, 138 17, 803 19, 222 20, 197 21, 770 23, 007 22, 203 22, 424 22, 576 22, 287 22, 610 22, 661 22, 831 22, 926 23, 045 22, 941 23, 357 23, 386 23, 269 23,764 23, 509 Total 31, 094 34, 405 38, 073 38, 952 41, 973 45, 376 46, 555 50, 377 40, 303 46, 113 46, dbb 46, 888 47, 426 48, 246 48, 809 49, 259 49, 534 49, 592 50, 299 50, 844 50, 800 50, 377 Inventories a Durable goods stores 13, 318 15, 253 17, 258 17, 277 19, 167 20, 647 20, 490 23, 306 20, 562 19, 965 20, 490 20, 689 21, 232 21, 704 22, 056 22, 509 22, 679 22, 707 23, 313 23, 769 23, 652 23, 306 Nondurable goods stores 17, 776 19,152 20, 815 21, 675 22, 806 24, 729 26, 065 27, 071 25, 741 26, 148 26, 065 20, 199 26, 194 26, 542 26, 753 26, 750 26, 855 26, 885 26, 986 27, 075 27, 148 27, 071 * Based on seasonally adjusted data through November. * Unofficial estimates. Source department ol Commerce. 21 MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND NEW ORDERS New orders and shipments of manufacturers (seasonally adjusted) decline in December and for the second month in a row inventories were little changed. _ . _ _ _ - ^ ^ ^ _ _ — _ — — ^ — _ _ BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 110 MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS MANUFACTURERS' INVENTORIES 100 T O T A i * ^ 90 80 70 30 DURABLE GOOD S ^—1 60 20 • — . 50 MANUFACTURERS1 NEW ORDERS DURABLE GOODS 30 NONDURABLE '3OODS #1Mi||M,1,H»lwtl|I#»U»Ml - * — 30 20 10 It 11 f 11 * lOA 1963 If1'1 ' ' ' * \ ' ' 1968 1971 \ i' r i i \ t i \ i i f t \ 1 t 1 1 \ \ \ \ 1969 1970 Manufacturers' shipments 1 Manufacturers1 inventories' Total 1971 x COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOtKCE, DEPA*TM£NT OF COMMERCE Period f i i i \ \ r t t f iK NonDurable durable goods goods Total NonDurable durable goods goods Manufacturers' new orders 1 Total Durable goods NonProducers1 durable capital Total goods goods industries Manufacturers' inventoryshipments3 ratio Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1964 „ 1965,.._.. 19C6 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971" 1970: Nov Dec 1971: Jan_ Feb. Mar Apr, May June July Aug. Sept Oct. Nov Dec 37, 335 41, 003 44, 863 46, 458 50, 287 53, 629 54, 429 57, 892 52, 562 | 54, 464 55, 718 56, 982 57, 790 57, 680 58, 352 58, 988 58, 418 57, 804 57, 892 57, 439 59, 061 58, 881 19, 634 22, 216 24, 629 25, 220 27, 695 29, 539 29, 349 31, 539 27, 680 29, 185 30, 166 30, 856 31, 616 31, 308 31, 850 32, 650 32, 123 31, 464 31, 543 31, 166 32, 106 31, 750 17, 701 18, 788 20, 233 21, 237 22, 592 24, 090 25, 080 26, 353 24, 882 25, 279 25, 552 26, 126 26, 174 26, 372 26, 502 26, 338 26, 295 26, 340 26, 349 26, 273 26, 955 27, 131 63f 386 68, 221 77, 950 84, 563 90, 737 96, 673 100, 476 100, 754 100, 927 100, 476 100, 878 100, 602 100, 502 100, 420 100, 647 100, 536 100, 194 100, 063 100, 266 100, 740 100, 793 100, 754 38, 436 42, 227 49, 793 54, 888 58, 969 63, 160 65, 152 64, 368 65, 517 65, 152 65, 308 65, 090 65, 082 65, 033 65, 079 64, 825 64, 692 64, 523 64, 563 64, 494 64, 399 64, 368 •Monthly average lor year and total for month. value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. ! Book : 22 24, 950 25, 994 28, 157 29, 675 31, 768 33, 513 35, 324 36, 386 35, 410 35, 324 35, 570 35, 512 35, 420 35, 387 35, 568 35, 711 35, 502 35, 540 35, 703 36, 246 36, 394 36, 386 37, 952 41, 803 45, 912 46, 707 50, 505 53, 768 53, 866 57, 716 52, 463 55, 468 57, 255 57, 165 57, 699 56, 597 57, 028 57, 009 58, 255 58, 085 57, 322 57, 490 59, 576 59, 341 20, 258 22, 986 25, 690 25, 46S 27, 919 29, 681 28, 778 31, 351 27, 560 30, 140 31, 666 31, 071 31, 472 30, 228 30, 601 30, 666 31, 955 31, 758 31, 026 31, 126 32, 564 32, 135 Source: Department of Commerce. 3,935 4,435 5,265 4,958 5, 307 6,074 5,794 6,384 5,871 5,925 6, 442 6,617 6,219 5, 677 6, 193 6,237 6,146 6,551 6,425 6,806 6,565 6,765 17, 694 18, 817 20, 222 21, 239 22, 585 24, 087 25, 088 26, 365 24, 903 25, 328 25, 589 26, 094 26, 227 26, 369 26, 427 26, 343 26, 300 26, 327 26, 296 26, 364 27, 012 27, 206 1. 64 1. 60 1. 62 1. 70 1.74 1.75 1,82 1. 74 1. 92 1.84 1.81 1.77 1.74 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.72 1. 73 1,73 1.75 1. 71 1-71 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS Exports and imports rose sharply in December as strikebound ports reopened. The trade deficit was $274 million (seasonally adjusted) in December and $2.0 billion for 1 9 7 1 . BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF. DOLLARS 3.0 2.5 2.0 1972 1966 1 / SEE NOTE BELOVf. COUNCIl Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period [Millions of dollars] Merchandise imports Merchandise exports Domestic exports Total (includGeneral imports 3 2 ing reexports)^ Food, Crude Food, Crude Total bever- matebever- mate- Manu2 facSeasonages, rials rials ages, Season- Unad- Total * tured ally ad- Unad- and to- and and to- and ally ad- justed goods justed justed bacco fuels bacco fuels Justed^ Monthly average :j 1963 1964 ! 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 _ 1970: Nov. Dec. 1971: Jan_. Feb.. MarApr. MayJune. July.. Aug.. SeptOct__ Nov_ Dec— 3,499 3,569 3, 735 3.690 3,815 3,522 3, 783 3,661 3,495 3,678 4,511 2,710 3,160 3,859 1,869 2,153 2,229 2,458 2,586 2, 839 3, 111 3,555 3,630 1,845 2, 123 2,201 2,421 2,554 2,802 3,066 3,502 3,576 3,494 3,684 3,482 3,527 4,108 3,807 3,914 3,686 3, 340 3,366 4,225 2,828 3,221 4,057 Unadjusted 3,445 513 3,633 485 3,434 439 3,470 403 4,059 455 3,741 401 3,854 423 3,625 395 3,295 385 3,319 383 4,170 568 2,776 294 3,176 394 537 4,000 349 386 377 432 392 383 370 422 423 315 361 356 367 394 405 417 558 537 1,191 1, 377 1,453 1, 602 1,737 1,985 2,232 2,445 2,537 574 2,293 2,378 2,351 2,445 2,937 2, 649 2,792 2,605 2,364 2,353 2,935 2,028 2,248 2,737 667 554 537 596 578 550 544 468 515 586 394 471 644 1 Total excludes Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program. 1 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. * Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. 1,428 1,562 1,786 2, 135 2,241 2,769 3,004 3,329 3,800 3,428 3,402 3,686 3,553 3,569 3,758 3,988 4,023 3, 799 3,937 4,245 3,531 3,387 4,132 3,405 3,553 3,422 3, 194 3, 912 3,898 3,845 4,283 3,699 3,847 4,254 3,472 3,531 4,283 322 335 334 382 392 447 442 519 534 396 419 453 476 447 503 533 545 740 Unadjusted 518 515 575 597 523 515 442 480 641 528 593 569 521 611 593 669 565 639 616 643 715 659 352 571 353 598 606 712 Grossmerchandise trade Manu- surplus, seasonfactured ally adjusted goods 672 759 937 1,204 1,313 1,719 1,918 2,159 2 ; 526 2,264 2,265 2,267 2,163 2,620 2,612 2,586 2,897 2 362 2,467 2,767 2,423 2,462 2,825 441 590 444 323 345 70 107 226 -171 71 168 49 136 245 236 205 363 304 260 265 821 227 274 NOTE.—Data adjusted to include silver ore and bullion reported separately prior to 1969. Source: Department of Commerce. 23 U.S. BALANCES ON GOODS, SERVICES, AND TRANSFERS Current estimates for the third quarter indicate a merchandise trade deficit of $2.1 billion and a deficit on current account of $3.7 billion (both at seasonally adjusted annual rates). BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 10 \ BALANCE O N GOODS AND SERVICES MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE BALANCE O N CURRENT ACCOUNT 1971 1965 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPAKTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars] Merchandise Period Exports 1966 1967_. 1968 1969. 1970.. 1971* Imports 12 Net balance Military transactions Direct expenditures 29, 390 -25,463 3,927 - 3 , 7 6 4 30, 680 - 26, 821 3,859 4,378 33, 588 -32,964 624 - 4 , 535 36, 490 -35,830 660 - 4 , 856 41, 980 -39,870 2, 110 - 4 , 851 44, 308 -46,052 - 1 , 7 4 4 - 4 , 759 1970: I 40,964 - 3 8 , 912 2,052 - 4 , 7 2 8 42, 328 -39,324 3,004 - 5 , 020 I I I . . . 42, 784 -39,968 2,816 - 4 , 844 IV.,.. 41, 844 - 4 1 , 276 568 - 4 , 812 1971: I 44,120 - 4 3 , 044 1,076 - 4 , 696 I I . , . . 42, 880 - 4 7 , 040 - 4 , 160 - 4 , 856 I l l »„ 45, 924 - 4 8 , 072 - 2 , 148 - 4 , 724 1 2 1 Sales Net balance 829 1,240 1, 395 1, 515 1,480 2,024 Private 3 U.S. Government 315 365 344 497 587 753 5,300 5,220 2,489 2,011 3,591 1,586 Remittances, Curpenrent sions, acand count other baluniancft lateral transfers 1 - 2 , 890 2,410 - 3 , 081 2, 139 - 2 , 875 -386 - 2 , 910 -899 - 3 , 148 443 — 3, 364 - 1 , 7 7 8 588 532 628 600 848 704 708 3,524 4,180 3,980 2,680 4,680 104 — 24 -3,024 500 -3,012 1, 168 -3,212 768 - 3 , 344 -664 —3, 080 1,600 - 3 , 352 - 3 , 2 4 8 - 3 , 6 6 0 - 3 , 684 Net travel Other and trans- servporta- ices, tion net expenditures - 2 , 9 3 5 5, 331 44 — 1,382 - 3 , 1 3 8 5,848 40 - 1 , 7 5 2 - 3 , 140 6, 157 63 - 1 , 558 155 - 1 , 7 8 0 - 3 , 3 4 1 5,820 - 3 , 370 6,360 - 1 1 8 - 1 , 979 - 2 , 7 3 5 8, 24S - 7 5 2 - 2 , 184 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1,096 - 3 , 632 6, 184 124 - 1 , 7 9 2 1,788 - 3 , 232 5,888 - 1 2 - 2 , 000 1,308 - 3 , 536 6,540 - 2 5 6 - 2 , 212 1,732 - 3 , 0 8 0 6,828 - 3 2 4 - 1 , 9 1 2 2,028 - 2 , 668 7,580 - 4 4 8 - 1 , 708 2,180 - 2 , 6 7 6 9,308 —632 - 2 , 4 4 0 1,864 - 2 , 8 6 0 7,856 -1,176 - 2 , 404 Excludes military grants. Adjusted from Census data for dillerences in timing and coverage. Includes fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States, 24 Net investment income Balance on goods and services 1 * Average of first 3 quarters on a seasonally adjusted annual rates basis. Source: Department of Commerce. U.S. OVERALL BALANCES ON INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS The balance of payments deficit on the net liquidity basis in the third quarter was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $37.2 billion, according to current estimates; on the official reserve transactions basis it was $48.5 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 20 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED A N N U A L RATES 10 BALANCE O N CURRENT ACCOUNT AND LONG-TERM CAPITAL BALANCE O N OFFICIAL RESERVE TRANSACTIONS -10 x NET LIQUIDITY BALANCE -20 -20 -30 -30 -40 -40 -50 -50 -60 ' 1966 ' 1967 ' J L J 1968 J L 1969 L 1970 J L 1971 I J 1972 -60 L COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars] Long-term capital Balance Nonliquid flows, net on current shortterm account private U.S. 2 and longGovern- Private term capital ment * capital flows net 2 Period 1966___ 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970.. 19716 — 1, 469 _ -2,423 - 2 , 161 — 1, 930 -2,029 - 2 , 456 -2,555 -1,614 -102 - 2 , 9 1 2 - 3 , 196 - 5 0 5 231 1, 198 - 1 , 349 »50 -2,879 -602 -1,454 -3,039 -545 - 5 , 9 2 8 -10,162 - 2 , 5 9 3 Allocations of special drawing rights Errors and omissions, net -431 -985 -493 - 2 , 603 867 - 1 , 1 0 4 717 -11,401 Balance, net liquidity u basis U.S. Changes Liquid Balance, in lia- Changes! official private official bilities in U.S. reserve capital reserve to official assets, flows, foreign reserve transnet 2 actions official assets, net (end of 4 basis : agencies, net period) net 3 2,367 - 2 , 148 568 14, 882 219 -787 1, 267 - 3 , 4 1 8 - 4 , 685 52 14, 830 3,366 3,251 -1,610 - 8 8 0 5 15, 710 1,641 761 8,786 -6,084 2,702 - 1 , 5 1 5 - 1 , 1 8 7 16, 964 - 3 , 8 2 1 - 6 , 0 0 0 - 9 , 821 2,477 14, 487 7,344 - 2 3 , 439 - 7 , 7 4 1 - 3 1 , 180 27, 800 3,380 12, 131 Unadjusted Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1970: I II III.__ IV__. 1971: I II—III »__ — 1,812 - 2 , 360 — 1,248 — 2,692 - 2 , 720 -2,520 — 2, 128 - 3 , 8 7 6 - 5 , 188 - 4 6 0 - 1 , 088 - 2 , 280 -.560 -880 -1,360 -460 28 - 3 , 3 2 8 - 7 0 0 - 4 , 012 - 5 , 132 - 1 , 5 3 6 - 7 , 180 -12,948 - 1 , 5 7 6 - 6 , 5 9 2 -12,404 - 4 , 668 - 2 3 6 - 5 , 0 1 6 - 6 , 4 4 0 -11,456 868 868 - 1 , 5 0 0 - 3 , 4 7 2 - 2 , 144 - 5 , 616 868 - 1 , 748 - 2 , 700 - 5 , 600 - 8 , 3 0 0 - 9 3 2 - 4 , 096 - 9 , 816 -13,912 864 720 - 4 , 068 -10,016 - 1 2 , 116 - 2 2 , 132 204 - 2 2 , 924 716 - 9 , 320 - 2 3 , 128 716 - 2 0 , 816 - 3 7 , 172 -11,312 -48,484 10, 400 2,396 5,964 10, 616 19, 404 20, 288 43, 708 1,056 3,220 2,336 3,296 2,728 2,63b 4,776 17, 350 16, 328 15, 527 14, 487 14, 342 13, 504 7 12, 131 * Includes gain of $67 million resulting from revaluation of the German mart * Excludes liabilities to foreign official reserve agencies. 3 In October 1969. Private foreigners exclude the IMF, but include other International ana • Average of first 3 quarters on a seasonally adjusted annual rates basis. regional organizations. 3 ' On Sept. 30, U.S. reserve assets consisted of gold stock, $10,207 million, special Includes liabilities to foreign official agencies reported by U.S. Government drawing rights, $1,097 million; convertible currencies, $250 million; gold tranche and U.S. banks and U.S. liabilities to the IMF arising from reversible gold sales position, $5777 millic million. w>. and gold deposits with, the United States. * Official reserve assets include gold, special drawing rights, convertible cur- • Sources: Department of Commerce and Treasury Department. rencies, and the U.S. gold tranche position in the IMF. 25 PRICES CONSUMER PRICES The December consumer price index rose 0.4 percent on both an unadjusted and a seasonally adjusted basis. Food, particularly fresh vegetables, v/as up 1.1 percent, the largest increase in 2 years. Nonfood commodities showed no change on the average unadjusted but rose 0.3 percent seasonally adjusted. Services rose 0.3 percent. Index; 1967= 100 Indox, 1967=100 100 100 90 90 1965 I 1966 1971 SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF IASOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967 = 100] Commodities Period 1962 196^ 19G4 1965 I960 1967...... 1908 1969 1970 1971 1970: N o w Dec_ 1971: Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. June July. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Source: Department of Labor. 26 All items 90.6 91.7 92, 9 94, 5 97.2 100.0 104.2 109.8 116.3 121. 3 118.5 119. 1 119. 2 119.4 119.8 120.2 120. 8 121. 5 121.8 122. 1 122, 2 122.4 122.6 123. 1 All commodities 92.8 93.6 94.6 95.7 98. 2 100.0 103.7 108.4 113.5 117.4 115. 1 115.6 115.4 115.5 116. 1 116.6 117. 2 117,9 118.1 118. 2 118. 1 118.4 118.5 118.9 Services Commodities less food Food 89.9 91.2 92.4 94.4 99.1 100.0 103.6 108.9 114.9 118.4 114.9 115.3 115.5 115.9 117.0 117.8 118. 2 119.2 119. 8 120.0 119, 1 118.9 119,0 120. 3 All 94. 1 94,8 95, 6 96.2 97. 5 100. 0 103. 7 108. 1 112. 5 116,8 115. 1 115.5 115. 2 115.2 115. 5 115.8 116.6 117. 1 117. 0 117. 1 117. 4 118.0 118. 1 118. 1 Ail Nonservices Durable durable 97.6 91. 8 86.8 97.9 92. 7 88.5 98.8 93.5 90. 2 98.4 94.8 92. 2 98.5 97.0 95.8 100. 0 100.0 100. 0 103. 1 104. 1 105. 2 107. 0 108.8 112. 5 111. 8 113, 1 121.6 116.5 117. 0 128.4 114.7 115. 4 124,9 115, 2 115.7 125.6 115. 2 115. 3 126. 3 115.0 115.4 126.6 115. 2 115.7 126. 6 115.7 116.0 126.8 116. 6 116,6 127. 5 117.4 116. 9 128.2 117. 5 116.7 128. 8 116.9 117, 2 129.4 116. 4 118.2 129. 8 117. 1 118.7 130. 0 117.4 118. 7 130.4 117.2 118. 8 130.8 Rent 94.0 95.0 95. 9 96.9 98.2 100. 0 102.4 105. 7 110. 1 115. 2 111.8 112.6 112. 9 113.6 113.9 114,4 114. 7 115.2 115. 4 115,8 116.1 116.4 116. 6 116. 9 Services less rent 85.5 87.3 89.2 91.5 95.3 100.0 105.7 113. 8 123. 7 130.9 127.3 128.0 128.7 129. 0 128. 9 120. i 129.8 130.6 131,2 13L 9 132. 3 132.5 132.9 133. 3 WHOLESALE PRICES The wholesale price index rose 0.8 percent in December; seasonally adjusted it was up 0.7 percent. Industrial com* modities increased 0.3 percent both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted. Farm products were up 3.2 percent and processed foods and feeds 1.3 percent for the largest increases since February. Index, 1967=100 Index, 1967=100 95 1971 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF IABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967^100] Period 1962 1963 1964 1965 1906 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1970: Nov. Dec-1971: Jan Feb Mar___ Apr Mav__ June_ July Aug. Sept,. Oct__ Nov.... Dec__ AH commodities Farm products Processed foods and feeds 94. 8 94.5 94.7 96. 6 99. 8 100. 0 102. 5 106.5 110. 4 113. 9 110. 9 111. 0 111.8 112. 8 113. 0 113. 3 113.8 114. 3 114. 6 114. 9 114. 5 114.4 114. 5 115. 4 98. 0 96.0 94.6 98. 7 105.9 100. 0 102. 5 109. 1 111. 0 112 9 107. 0 107. 1 108. 9 113. 9 113. 0 113. 0 114.0 116. 0 113.4 113. 2 110. 5 111. 3 112.2 115.8 91. 9 92. 5 92.3 95.5 101.2 100. 0 102. 2 107. 3 112. 0 114 3 111. 7 110. 7 111.8 113, 3 113. 7 113. 5 114. 5 114. 9 116.0 115.4 114.6 114. 1 114.4 115.9 * Coverage of the subgroups docs not correspond exactly to coverage of this 3 xc u es 1 3 f? ? * d cnide foodstuffs and feedstuffs, plant and animal fibers, oilseeds, and Industrial commodities All industrials 1 918 94. 7 95.2 96. 4 98. 5 100. 0 102. 5 106. 0 110. 0 114 0 111. 3 111. 7 112.2 112. 5 112. 8 113. 3 113. 7 113. 9 114, 5 115. 1 115. 0 115. 0 114.9 115.3 Crude mate-3 rials 95.6 94.3 97.1 100.9 104.5 100.0 102. 0 110. 6 118. 8 122. 7 118. 2 119.8 121.4 121. 8 121.4 124. 1 123.5 122. 8 122.7 122.3 123.0 122. 9 122.6 123.4 Inter- Producmediate er Gnmate-3 ished rials goods 95.3 95. 0 95.6 96. 9 98. 9 100.0 102.6 106.2 110.0 114. 3 111.0 111.0 111. 5 112.0 112.7 113. 3 113.8 114. 1 114.9 115.9 115. 9 115. 7 115.6 115.8 92. 2 92 4 93.3 94. 4 96. 8 100. 0 103. 5 106.9 111. 9 116 6 114. 2 115. 1 115. 6 115. 9 116. 0 116. 1 116. 3 116. 5 116. 8 117. 1 116. 9 117. 1 117. 0 117. 8 Consumer finished goods excluding food DurNonable durable 98. 3 94. 8 97. 8 95. 1 98.2 94.8 97. 9 95. 9 98.5 97. 8 100. 0 100. 0 102.2 102.2 104.0 105.0 107. 1 108. 2 110. 9 111 3 109. 9 109. 5 109.9 110.4 110. 5 110. 9 110. 8 110. 8 110. 4 110. 7 110. 5 110.5 110. 7 111. 0 110.7 111. 2 111. 0 ! 111. 6 111. 1 111. 8 110. 4 111. 9 111. 3 111. 7 111. 3 111.7 112. 6 111.8 * Excludes intermediate materials for food manufacturing and manufactured animal feeds; includes, in part, grain products, for further processing. Source: Department of Labor. 2*7 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS In the month ended January 15 # prices received b y farmers rose 3 % percent while prices paid were up 1 percent. The actual parity ratio rose 1 point and the adjusted ratio rose 3 points. PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES X- PRICES RECEIVED (ALL FARM PRODUCTS) 100 90 i • i • t I t t i i i I t t i i i I • . t i t I 80 RATION 90 90 PARITY RATIO ^ 80 80 70 70 1965 1966 . i... 1 . . . . . 1968 1967 1970 1969 | 1971 J/RATtO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES, ON 191D-14-100 BASE. SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Prices received by farmers Period 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969. 1970 1971 „_ All farm products 96 96 93 98 105 100 103 108 110 112 Crops 103 106 106 103 105 100 101 97 100 108 Livestock and products Prices paid by farmers Ail items, interest, taxes, and wage rates Index, 1967=100 92 90 91 89 92 85 94 94 105 98 100 100 104 104 116 109 118 114 116 120 Family living items Parity ratio' Production items 91 92 93 95 98 100 104 109 114 119 94 95 94 96 99 100 102 106 110 115 Actual 80 78 76 77 80 74 73 74 72 70 Adjusted« 83 81 80 82 86 79 79 79 77 74 1970: Dec 15_ 104 99 108 116 116 112 66 72 1971: Jan 1 5 . . Feb 15., Mar 15_. Apr 15.. May 15_ June 15_ July 15. Aug 15.. Sept 15 Oct 15_ Nov 15.. Dec 15.. 106 112 111 111 113 113 113 113 111 113 114 116 102 105 107 108 111 114 111 108 104 106 108 109 110 117 114 114 114 113 114 117 117 118 119 121 117 118 118 119 120 120 120 120 120 121 121 122 116 117 117 117 118 119 119 120 120 120 120 121 112 113 114 115 115 116 116 116 116 116 117 117 68 70 70 69 70 70 70 70 68 69 70 71 72 75 74 74 74 75 74 74 73 74 74 75 1972: Jan 15 K 120 111 126 123 121 118 72 78 1 Pcrcentaco ratio of index of prices received by fanners to index of prices paid. Interest, taxes, and w&ze rates on 1910-14=100 base. »The adjusted parity ratio reflects Government payments made directly to farmers. 28 «Not charted. Source: Department of Agriculture. MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK The seasonally adjusted money stock rose at a 2.7 percent annual rate in December following 2 months of virtual stability and 1 month of decline. U.S. Government demand deposits returned to their high levels of late summer. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 300 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 300 250 250 100 1971 1965 SOURCEt BOARD O f GOVERNORS OP THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period 1966: Dec... 1967: Dec.-. 1968: Dec... 1969: Dec... 1970: D e c . 1971: Dec* 1970: Dec . 1971: Jan_. Mar.. Apr.-. May.. June.. July.. Aug__ Sept-. Nov *. Dec *>_ 1 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures, billions of dollars] Money stock Money stock Time Curand Derency mand savings outTotal dede- 1 side posits 1 banks posits 171.7 183. 1 197.4 203.7 214.8 228.2 213.6 214. S 215.3 217. 7 219.7 221.2 223. S 225. 5 227.4 228.0 227. 6 227.7 227. 7 228. 2 Seasonally 38.3 40.4 43.4 46.0 49.0 52. 5 48.7 49.0 49.3 49.7 50.0 50.5 50.8 51. 1 51.6 51.7 51.9 52.2 52.2 52.5 adjusted 133.4 142. 7 154.0 157.7 165.8 175.7 164.9 165.8 166.0 168.0 169.7 170.7 173. 0 174. 5 175. 8 176.3 175.7 175. 5 175. 5 175.7 Deposits at commercial banks. NOTE.—Effective June 9. I960, balances accumulated for payment of personal Joans (about $1.1 billion) are excluded from time deposits and from loans at all commercial banks. 158.1 183.4 204.2 194.1 228.9 269.9 224.2 228.9 234.4 240.2 245.4 248. 1 251.3 254.4 256.4 257. 3 259.6 263. 3 265. 3 269.9 176.9 18& 6 203.4 209.8 221.2 235.1 215. 4 221.2 221.4 215. 6 217.5 222. 3 219. 9 223.7 226.0 224.9 226.2 227. 5 229.6 235. 1 39. 1 41. 2 44. 3 46. 9 50. 0 53. 5 49. 2 50. 0 49. 1 49. 1 49. 5 50. 1 50. 5 51. 0 51. 9 51. 9 51. 9 52. 2 52. 8 53. 5 Unadjusted 137.8 147.4 159. 1 162.9 171. 3 181.5 166.3 171.3 172.3 166. 5 168.0 172. 3 169.4 172. 7 174. 1 173.0 174.3 175. 3 176.9 181.5 U.S. Governsavings S ment demand dedeposits l posits l 156.9 182. 1 203.2 193.2 228. 1 269.0 224. 1 228.1 233. S 239.6 246.2 248.5 251.4 253.8 255. 5 258.1 260. 3 2G4. 1 265.5 269. 0 3.4 5.0 5.0 5.6 7.3 6.7 5.7 7.3 6.8 8.4 5.5 5. 5 7.8 5.3 6.8 G.8 7.5 5. 3 3.9 6. 7 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 SELECTED LIQUID ASSETS HELD BY THE PUBLIC Liquid asset holdings of the public (seasonally adjusted) registered a sharp $ 1 6 . 7 billion rise in December. The bulk of the rise was due to increases in money and short-term U.S. Government securities. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, END OF MONTH 900 900 800 800 700 700 600 600 500 500 SAVING TYPE ASSETSJ/ 400 u -— 400 300 300 DEMAND DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY REY 200 [ < Wl'H» 20Q I I M 100 1966 100 I I 1 1 I t I 1968 1967 1969 1970 1972 1971 J/ASSETS OTHER THAN DEMAND DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY. SOU«CE. »OA*D OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] End of period 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 » 1970: Nov_., Dec— 1971: Jan,,_. Feb._. Mar... Apr May.,. June.-. July-. Aug.Sept... Oct.... Nov. Dec »_. Total selected liquid assets 573.1 601.5 650,4 709.6 731.7 786.1 879. 7 773.8 786. 1 788. 9 796.6 815.8 815.5 824.8 836.6 836.3 841.7 851.5 856. 2 863.0 879. 7 Demand deposits and currency * 164.1 168.6 180. 7 3 199. 2 206.8 207.6 222.3 201.5 207,6 202. 9 204.6 211. 6 206.3 212.5 218.4 213.8 215.0 214.4 214. 5 215,3 222. 3 Time deposits Commercial banks savings Postal Savings System banks 147.1 159.3 183. 1 203.8 197, 1 234. 8 274.9 230.4 234.8 240.0 244.5 249.5 250. 2 252.3 254.7 256. 5 258.2 263.5 266. 5 272.4 274.9 •Agrees in concept with money stock, p. 29, except for deduction of demand deposits held by mutual savings banks and savinps and loan associations. Data for last Wednesday ol month. Data prior to July 1969 have not been revised to conform to the money stock revision. 30 Mutual Savings and loan deposits and shares 52.6 55,2 60.3 64.7 67. 3 71.5 81. 2 70. 9 71.5 72,2 73. 5 74.7 75.9 76.8 77.6 78.3 78.6 79.3 80.0 80.8 81. 2 0.3 .1 "I 100.8 113.4 123. 9 131,0 134. 9 145.7 173.5 144. 5 145. 7 14a 4 151,3 155.4 158.0 159.9 161.5 164.4 166. 1 169. 1 170. 6 172.4 173.5 U.S. Government U.S. Gov- securities ernment maturing savings2 within bonds one year 3 50.5 50. 9 51. 9 52.5 52.4 52. 7 55. 1 52.2 52. 7 52. 8 52.8 53.0 53, 2 53.4 53.6 53. 8 54.0 54. 2 54.3 54.5 55. 1 48.6 53,9 50.5 58.5 7a 2 73.8 72.7 74.3 73.8 72.6 70,0 71.6 71,8 69.9 70.9 69.5 69.8 71.0 70.2 67.6 72.7 * Excludes holdings of Government agencies and trust funds, domestic commercial and mutual savings banks, Federal Eeserve Banks, and beginning February 1960, savings and loan associations. a Estimates for Dec. 31. NOTE.—See Note. p. 29. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. BANK LOANS, INVESTMENTS, DEBITS, AND RESERVES Free reserves were $48 million in December, their first positive level since early 1968. Seasonally adjusted commercial bank loans and investments rose at an 11.9 percent annual rate. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, END OF M O N T H 500 500 TOTAL LOANS A N D INVESTMENTS ^000^ 400 400 300 300 BANK LOANS 200 — * 200 100 100 INVESTMENTS IN OTHER SECC RITIES INVESTMENTS IN U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 1'ff 111 f ! | | 1966 | | 1 ! ! ! 1 ! | \ 1 ! ! I I ! I 1 ! I I t ! ! t ! 1 1 ? 1 1 ! 1 1 I 1967 1968 1969 ! I 1 ! 1 I ! ! \ 11 1970 \ f ! ! 1 1 1 I 1 1 ! i f f i ( ! i i \ 11 1971 1972 SOURCE. BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Bank Weekly debits reporting large com- outside mercial New York City (232 Investments Total banks Loans, End of period centers), loans and excluding U.S. Gov- Other Commercial seasonally invest- interernment securi- and indus- adjusted bank ments securities ties trial loans annual rates l Billions of dollars 3 1966 _ 316. 1 213.9 53.5 48.7 60. 7 3,421 1967 352.0 231.3 59. 3 61.4 65.8 5, 740 1968 390.6 258.2 61.0 71.4 73.1 4,354 1969 * 402. 1 279.4 51. 5 71.2 81. 5 5,163 1970 435.9 292.0 58. 0 5 85.9 81. 7 5,744 1971 p 482. 9 « 318. 6 60. 3 103. 9 83.8 6,436 5,710 56.3 83.0 79:9 290. 0 1970: Nov „ 429. 3 435.9 292. 0 58.0 85.9 81. 7 5, 8S0 Dec 5,863 80. 1 1971: Jan 293.7 88. 1 440. 7 58. 9 295.7 60. 8 89.6 80.8 6, OSS 446. 1 Feb _ . Mar 449.5 296.5 61. 1 91.9 81. 2 6,116 452.5 298. 2 60. 7 93.5 81. 1 6,302 Apr 60.4 95. 1 81.4 6,215 May 456. 1 5 300. 7 5 June . 301. 7 62. 8 96. 6 82.3 6,613 461. 1 July 463.7 304. 1 61.6 98. 0 81.6 6,623 Aug.. 468.4 309. 7 60. 9 97.8 82.4 6,665 Sept » 472.4 313.0 59.9 99.5 83.5 6,697 Oct *p 476. 5 316.4 59. 1 101.0 83.1 6 AH 317.5 58.9 102.0 82.6 Nov 478.4 6,839 Dec *> _ 482.9 318. 6 60.3 103.9 83.8 6,776 1 Ail member banks 2 All commercial banks (seasonally adjusted data) 1 Debits during period to demand deposit accounts except interbank and U .S. Government. New series beginning January 1964. * Averages of daily figures. Annual data are for December. • New series; see Federal Reserve Bulletin, March 1967. 4 New series beginning June 1969; see Federal Etune Bulletin* August 1969. J As of June 1971, Farmers Home Administration notes totaling about $0.7 million are classified as "other securities" rather than as "loans." Total reserves BorrowFree Excess ings at reserves Reserve reserves Banks JMillions o]' dollars 392 557 23, 830 345 23S 25, 260 455 765 27, 221 257 28, 031 1,086 272 321 29, 265 156 108 31, 316 425 120 28, 558 272 321 29, 265 370 279 30, 488 201 328 29, 8S0 199 319 29, 686 140 148 I 29, 885 312 330 ; 30, 419 131 453 30, 023 162 821 i 30, 547 198 804 ! 30, 455 206 501 ' 30, 802 207 360 30, 860 263 407 30, 953 156 108 : 31,316 -165 107 -310 -829 -49 48 -305 -49 -91 -127 -120 - 3 -IS -322 -658 -606 -295 -153 -144 48 NOTE.—Effective June 1966, balances accumulated for payment of personal loans (about $1.1 billion) are excluded from loans at all commercial banks, and certain certificates of CCC and Export-Import Bank totaling about $1 billion a included in other securities rather than in loans. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 31 CONSUMER AND REAL ESTATE CREDIT Total consumer credit rose by $31/2 billion in December/according to preliminary estimates. A year earlier the rise was $3 billion. Consumer instalment credit (seasonally adjusted) rose by $800 million in December. BILUONS OF DOUARS 140 BtLUONS OF DOUARS 140 TOTAL CONSUMER CREDIT OUTSTANDING r i i I i i i i i i i i i i I i I i l INSTALMENT CREDIT EXTENDED 1965 1971 5OU«C£, BOARD OF GOVESNOK OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Millions of dollars] Consumer credit outstanding (end of period; Consumer instalment credit extended unadjusted) and repaid (seasonally adjusted) Instalment Total Automobile paper NonAutomoTotal instalTotal * Personal Extended Repaid Extended Repaid bile ment 2 paper loans Period 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967..1968 1969 1970. 1971* 1970: Nov Dec COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS _ . 1971: Jan. _J Feb...... Mar Apr May June.. __ Julv Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec* 71, 739 80, 268 90, 314 97, 543 102, 132 113, 191 122, 469 126, 802 136, 800 123, 915 126, 802 55, 486 62, 692 71, 324 77, 539 SO, 926 89, 890 98, 169 101, 161 109, 200 99, 790 101, 161 22, 254 24, 934 28, 619 30, 556 30, 724 34, 130 36, 602 35, 490 38, 400 36, 011 35, 490 15, 618 17, 848 20, 412 22, 187 24, 018 26, 936 29, 918 31, 612 34, 400 31, 268 31, 612 16, 253 17, 576 18, 990 20, 004 21, 206 23, 301 24,300 25, 641 27, 600 24, 125 25, 641 63, 591 70, 670 78, 586 82, 335 84, 693 97, 053 102, 888 104, 130 118, 000 8,414 8,536 56, 825 63, 470 69, 957 76, 120 81, 306 88, 089 94, 609 101, 138 109, 950 8,716 8,515 22, 126 24, 046 27, 227 27, 341 26,667 31, 424 32, 354 29, 831 34, 900 2, 127 2,170 125, 077 123, 815 123, 604 125, 047 126, 025 127, 388 128, 354 129, 704 130, 644 131, 606 133, 263 136, 800 100, 101 99, 244 99, 168 100, 028 100, 692 101, 862 102, 848 104, 060 104, 973 105, 763 107, 097 109, 200 35, 004 34, 869 35, 028 35, 496 35, 819 36, 349 36, 763 37, 154 37, 383 37, 759 38, 164 38, 400 31, 455 31, 396 31, 504 31, 773 32, 041 32, 351 32, 680 33, 134 33, 420 33, 575 33, 977 34, 400 24, 976 24, 571 24, 436 25, 019 25, 333 25, 526 25, 506 25, 644 25, 671 25, 843 26, 166 27, 600 8,916 9,081 9,533 9,751 9,690 9,715 9, 675 10, 049 10, 156 10, 031 10, 572 10, 700 8,829 8,979 9,038 9,088 9,197 9,190 8, 914 9,222 9,157 9,107 9,306 9,900 2,461 2,687 2, 897 2,872 2,756 2,838 2,773 3,004 3, 147 2,992 3, 162 3, 150 1 Also includes other consumer goods paper, and repair and modernization Joans, not shown separately. 2 8 Consists of single-payment loans, charge accounts, and service credit. End of period, unadjusted. 32 Mortgage debt outstanding nonfarm, 1- to 4family houses z 182, 200 19, 254 197, 600 21, 369 212, 900 23, 543 223, 600 25, 404 236, 100 26, 499 251,200 28, 018 266, 800 29, 882 2S0, 200 30, 943 307, 500 32, 000 2, 577 280, 200 2,618 2,623 2,636 2,696 2,566 2,640 2, 678 2, 565 2,697 2,732 2,634 2,662 2,850 283, 600 290, 900 299, 500 307, 500 * Preliminary; by Council of Economic Advisers. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Home Lofin Bank Board. BOND YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES Mortgage yields fell in December for the fourth month in a row. Virtually all interest rates declined in December and early January, and the drop was particularly sharp for 3-month Treasury bill rates. PERCENT PER A N N U M PERCENT PER ANNUM 10 10 CORPORATE Aaa BONDS {MOODY'S) 1971 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE. SEE TABLE BELOW Period 1964. 1965,. 1966 1967 1968 1969, 1970__ 1971 1970: Nov Dec 1971: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Week ended: 1971: Dec 17__ 1972: Jan 31._ 7°. 14 66 . 21 _ 28 6 - [Percent per annumj High-grade U.S. Government security yields municipal o-month bonds 3-5 year Taxable 3 2 Treasury (Standard4 & bonds issues bills » Poor's) 3. 549 3.22 4. 06 4. 15 ;{. 954 3. 27 4.22 4. 21 4. S81 3.82 5. 16 4. 65 4.321 3.98 5.07 4.85 5. 339 5.26 4.51 5.59 6. 677 6. 12 5.81 6.85 6.458 6.58 6. 51 7.37 4. 348 5.74 5.70 5.77 6.20 6.24 6.37 5. 288 5.97 5.71 4. 860 5. 86 5.70 5.92 4.494 5.72 5. 84 5. 55 :j. 773 5. 31 5.44 4. 74 5. 71 3. 323 5. 65 3. 7S0 5.42 5. 75 4. 139 6.02 5.96 6. 14 5. 94 4. 699 6.36 6. 22 5.405 6.77 5.91 6. 31 5.78 5. 078 6.39 5.95 5.56 4.668 5.96 5. 52 4.489 5. 68 5.46 5.24 4. 191 5.50 5.48 5. 30 4. 023 5.42 5.62 5. 36 5.45 5.43 5.27 5.31 5.20 5.32 5.47 3.944 4. 023 3.731 3. 735 3. 109 3.276 3.493 * Hate on new issues within period. 2 5. 63 5.68 5. 60 5. 61 5.57 5. 61 5. 66 Selected note and bond issues. .„* ^iOV W1 VMO *»«*.„*,, .^JV« «« — ~~.~* permissible Interest rate (7 percent beginning February 18,1971) and 30-year mortgages paid In lfi years. 5.37 5.28 5. 18 5. 16 5.15 5.31 5.39 Corporate bonds (Moody's) Aaa 4.40 4.49 5.13 5.51 6.18 7.03 8.04 7. 39 8.05 7.64 7.36 7. 08 7. 21 7.25 7.53 7. 64 7.64 7.59 7.44 7. 39 7.26 7. 25 7.24 7.23 7.22 7.19 7. 17 7.16 7.22 Baa 4.83 4.87 5. 67 6.23 6.94 7.81 9. 11 8.56 9.38 9. 12 8.74 8. 39 S.46 8.45 8.62 8.75 8.76 8.76 a 59 a 48 8.38 8.38 8.39 8.36 8.31 8.28 a 21 a is 8.24 Prime FHA commercial new homo paper, mortgage 4-6 yields 5 months 3.97 5. 45 4.38 5. 46 5.55 6.29 5.10 6.55 5.90 7.13 7.83 a 19 7.72 9.05 5. 11 7.78 6. 30 8.97 5. 73 8.90 5. 11 8.40 4. 47 4. 19 7.32 4.57 5.10 7.37 5. 45 7.75 7. 89 5. 75 7.97 5.73 7.92 5.75 7.84 5.54 7.75 4.92 7.62 4.74 4.75 4.75 4. 50 4.38 4.10 3.98 3.88 • Not charted. Sources: Treasury Department, Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System, Federal Housing Administration, Standard & Poor's Corporation, and Moody's Investors Service. 33 COMMON STOCK PRICES, YIELD, AND EARNINGS The stock markef rallied in December, and the rising trend has continued into January, Index, 1941-43=10 Index, 1941-43^10 WEEKLY 120 120 no 110 COMPOSITE PRICE INDEX FOR . 500 C O M M O N STOCKS 100 AA /\i\f 100 90 90 80 30 70 70 1 I I I I i i i, ; I I I i t I 1 1 1 I 1 M 1 I M i I I l I t I I I M t t l I I 1 t 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 I I 1 I 1 I 1 1 M 1 ! ! 1 I 11 1 1 1 I 1 I I 1 I 60 PERCENT PERCENT MONTHLY DIVIDEND YIELD O N COMMON STOCKS i i 1 i t i i i 1 t i i i i I i i i i i I M M i [ t t i I i I i n i i I M n i I i i i i i I n M PRICE/EARNINGS RATIO O N C O M M O N STOCKS 15 10 1971 1965 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE. STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION Price index Industrials Period 1960 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971" 1970: Dec 1971: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct.__ Nov Dec Week ended: 1971: Dec 1724_ 31_ 1972: Jan 7< 144 Total 85.26 91.93 98.70 97.84 83,22 98. 29 90. 05 93.49 97. 11 99. 60 103. 04 101. 64 99. 72 99. 00 97. 24 99.40 97,29 92. 78 99.70 98.84 101. 32 101. 80 102. 76 103. 39 103. 83 103. 10 Total 91.08 99, 18 107. 49 107. 13 91. 29 108. 35 98.72 102. 22 106, 62 109. 59 113. 68 112. 41 110. 26 109. 09 107. 26 109. 85 107. 28 102. 21 109. 67 Capital goods Consumers' goods 1941-43=-10 84. 80 74. 10 96. 96 79. 18 86.33 105, 77 87.06 103. 75 80. 22 87.87 99.76 102. 83 88. 69 92, 12 91. 72 95.97 95. 38 101. 58 104. 69 98. 54 109. 38 102. 41 108. 61 101. 96 105. 46 100, 96 102. 48 100. 55 100. 90 99. 82 104. 55 103. 34 100. 66 101. 31 95. 51 97.47 103. 78 103. 92 Public utilities 08. 21 68. 10 66.42 62. 64 54. 48 59.33 59. 96 63.43 62. 49 62.42 62. 00 59. 20 57. 90 60.08 57. 51 56.48 57.41 55. 86 57.07 Railroads 46. 34 46. 72 48. 84 45, 95 32. 13 41.94 32. 95 36. 64 38. 78 39.70 42. 29 42.05 42. 12 42.05 43.55 47. 18 44. 58 41. 19 43. 17 Dividend yield '(percent) 3. 40 3.20 3.07 3.24 3. 83 3.14 3.46 3.32 3. 18 3. 10 2. 99 3.04 3. 10 3. 13 3. 18 3. 09 3. 16 3. 31 3. 10 Price/ earnings ratio 3 14,92 17.52 17.20 16.57 15.91 17.22 18. 11 17.43 ~17.~69 109. 33 103. 46 103. 53 56. 63 3. 12 43.25 112. 21 107. 98 106. 19 57.27 43. 77 3. 02 112. 54 107. 79 106. 35 58-84 44. 10 2. 99 113.48 108. 57 106. 73 60.22 44.72 2. 97 ! 114. 11 108. 93 107. 23 61.03 44. 88 2.95 ! 114. 72 HO. 25 106. 69 GO. 43 45. 35 2. 94 I 113.99 28 4 111.02 105.13 59. 29 45. 48 2.99 I 1 Includes 500 common stocks; 425 industrials, 65 public utilities, and 20 rail- are averages of monthly data. Weekly data are Wednesday figures. roads. Weekly indexes for capital and consumer goods are Wednesday figures* Eatio of price index for last day in quarter to quarterly earnings (seasonally allJ other weekly indexes are averages of daily figures. adjusted annual rate). Annual ratios are averages of quarterly data. 4 Aggregate cash dividends (based on latest known annual rate) divided by Not charted. the aggregate monthly market value of the stocks in the group. Annual yields Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation. 34 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS, EXPENDITURES, AND NET LENDING The estimated budget deficit for fiscal 1972 is $ 3 8 % billion. For fiscal 1971 the deficit was $23 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 260 I RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 260 220 220 OUTLAYS (EXPENDITURES A N D NET LENDING) 180 180 140 140 100 I (ENLARGED SCALE) +20 SURPLUS (+) OR DEFICIT { - ) (ENLARGED SCALE) +20 - EXPENDITURE ACCOUNT P —"""" m "^Z "V \ J -20 - -20 BUDGET I -40 1 I 1 1963 1962 1964 1965 | i [ 1967 1968 FISCAL YEARS 1966 2/ ESTIMATE SOURCES* TREASURY DEPARTMENT ANO OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET t 1969 i 1970 -40 1971 1972^ 1973^ COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Budget receipts, expenditures, and net lending Receipts Fiscal year: 1961 1962 . . 1963 1964 . 1965 mtm 1966 1967 ___ 1968 1969 1970,. 1971 19725.. 1973 s . 94.4 99.7 106.6 112.7 116.8 130.9 149.6 „_ _ Cumulative totals for first 5 months: Fiscal year 1971 Fiscal year 1972 _ 197.8 220. 8 96.6 104.5 111.5 118.0 117.2 130.8 153.2 172.8 183.1 194.5 210.3 235.6 246.5 72. 1 76.0 88.2 93.5 153.7 187.8 193.7 __ isa 4 i Expenditures 1 Excludes non-interest-bearing public debt securities bold by IMF. 'Surplus of $3C million. 1 Estimates. Loan account Receipt-expenditure account Period Surplus or deficit ( - ) Net lending Total surplus or deficit ( - ) Federal debt (end of period) Total1 -21.9 -37.8 -25.7 2. 1 1. 1 1.0 -.2 -2.8 -23.0 -38.8 -25. 5 292.9 303.3 310.8 316.8 323.2 329. 5 341.3 369. 8 367.1 382.6 409.5 455.8 493.2 -16. 1 -17.6 .4 .5 -16.5 -18.1 395.3 424 6 -2.2 -4.8 -4 9 -5.4 (3) -3.6 -19.1 47 -.7 1.2 2.4 -.1 .5 1.2 3.8 5.1 6.0 1.5 -3.4 7.1 -4 8 -5.9 -1.6 -3.8 -8.7 -25.2 3.2 Held by the public 238.6 248.4 254 5 257.6 261.6 264 7 267.5 290.6 279.5 284.9 304 3 343.8 371.3 298.1 317.4 Sources: Treasury Department and Office of Management and Budget. 35 FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION For fiscal 1 9 7 2 budget receipts are estimated at %91A billion more than fiscal 1971 and outlays, at $25 billion higher, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 120 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 120 RECEIPTS 100 100 80 80 INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES 60 60 40 40 20 20 CORPORATION INCOME TAXES 1 180 ! 1 0 180 OUTLAYS (EXPENDITURES AND NET LENDING) 160 160 140 - 140 120 120 100, - - - 100 80 • -1! 0 ^000I0^ ^ — 40 1962 1963 — f - 1964 NATIONAL DEFENSE 60 - * - 1 1 1965 t 1966 1 t 1967 1968 FISCAL YEARS i 1969 i 1970 r 1971 i 1972J/ K 40 1973J/ 1 J/ESTIMATE SOUtOS, TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL O f ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Receipts Outlays National defense Period Fiscal year: 1961 1962 1963 1964 _ 1965 . 1966... 1967 „ 1968 1969 1970 1971 19722 1973 2 . Cumulative totals for first 5 mouths: Fiscal year 1971,..,. Fiscal year 1972,.. * Expenditure account. »Estimates. 36 Total Individual Corporation income income taxes taxes Other Total Total Department of Defense, military ! Interna- Health tional Inand affairs income terest Other and finance security 94,4 99.7 106.6 112,7 116.8 130.9 149.6 153.7 187.8 193. 7 188.4 197.8 220,8 41.3 45.6 47.6 48.7 48.8 55.4 61.5 68. 7 87.2 90.4 86.2 86.5 93.9 21.0 20.5 21.6 23.5 25.5 30. 1 34.0 28.7 36.7 32, 8 26.8 30. 1 35. 7 32. 1 33.6 37.4 40.5 42. 6 45. 3 54. 1 56.3 63,9 70. 5 75.4 81.2 91. 2 97.8 106.8 111. 3 118.6 118.4 134. 7 158. 3 178.8 184.5 196.6 211.4 236. 6 246.3 47.4 51. 1 52.3 53.6 49.6 56.8 70. 1 80,5 81. 2 80.3 77,7 78.0 78.3 43.3 46. 9 48. 1 49.6 46, 0 54,2 67.5 77.4 77.9 77. 2 74.5 75.0 75,9 3.4 4.5 4. 1 4. 1 43 4,5 4.5 4.6 3. 8 3. 6 3. 1 4. 0 3.8 22.1 23. 7 25. 5 26.8 27.4 31.5 37.8 43. 7 49.3 56. 7 70. 2 82. 2 87. 8 8. 1 8,3 9.2 . 9.8 10.4 11,3 12. 6 13. 7 15.8 18. 3 19. 6 20. 1 21. 2 16.8 19.2 20.3 24.2 26.7 30,6 33.2 36.2 34.4 37.7 40.9 52.3 55.2 72. 1 76.0 36.3 36.4 6.8 6.9 29. 1 32.7 88.6 94. 1 31.7 29.0 30.8 28.2 1.2 1.6 27,0 31.7 7.9 8. 3 20.7 23.4 Sources: Treasury Department and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS According to preliminary estimates for the fourth quarter. Federal expenditures increased nearly $5 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate). Receipts data are incomplete. For calendar 1971 as a whole, receipts are estimated to be SVA billion higher than in 1970 and expenditures nearly $17 billion higher, yielding a deficit of more than $23 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 240 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 240 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 220 220 200 180 200 • EXPENDITURES 180 X 160 160 RbChlNti 140 140 120 120 100 1. +20 I 1 1 1 t 1 1 ! 1 t 1 1 1 ! I \ 1 1 1 1 1 100 .IS SURPLUS DEFICIT -20 -20 1965 1966 1968 CALENDAR YEARS 1967 1970 1969 1971 COUNCtt. OF ECONOMIC ADVtSEtt SOURCE. DEPARTMENT O f COMMERCE [Billions of dollars, quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Government expenditures Federal Government receipts Period Total Fiscal vear: 1967 1968 1969___ 1970 1971 *_„ 19721. 1973 i _ Calendar year: 1967 1968 . 1969_ 1970. 1971 *_„ Persona] tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Subsidies Less: GrantsPurin-aid less Wage Indirect Contrichases Trans- to State Net current accruals business butions Total of goods fer pay- and interestlsurplus of less for tax and nontax social inand ments local paid | Governdisservices government en- burseaccruals surance ments terprises ments Surplus or deficit (-), income and product accounts 147. 2 160. 6 190. 3 194.6 194. 0 202. 8 227. 9 64. 5 71. 4 90.0 93. 8 87. 7 91. 3 98. 3 31.2 33.7 37.3 32.8 32.5 33.0 40.7 15. 8 17. 1 18.6 19. 2 20.3 19.8 20.7 35.7 38.3 44.3 48.8 53. 5 58.7 68. 2 154. 5 85.3 172.5 94 9 185.9 99. 3 197. 2 99. 2 212.4 95.3 237.8 103.0 255.9 107.0 39.4 44 8 50.7 56.9 69.9 .79.8 87.4 14. 8 17.8 19.4 22.6 27. 0 36.2 40.6 9.9 10.9 12.3 14 0 14 2 13.4 14.8 5.1 41 . 41 4.6 5.9 5.4 6.0 0.0 .0 .0 .1 !. 0o -7.3 -11.9 44 -2.7 -18.4 -35. 0 -28.0 151. 2 175. 0 196. 9 191. 5 198.7 67. 5 79. 7 94. 9 92. 2 89.0 30.7 36.7 36.3 30.6 33.5 16.3 18.0 19.0 19. 3 20.2 36. 7 40.7 46.8 49. 3 56.0 163. 6 181.5 189.5 205. 1 222.0 90.7 98.8 99. 2 97.2 97.6 42. 2 48.2 52.4 63.4 75.9 15. 8 ,18.7 20.3 24 4 29.7 10. 2 11.7 13. 1 14 6 13.7 4 0 41 46 5.5 5.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 -12.4 -6.5 7. 3 -13.6 -23.3 1970:1 II III IV.. 191. C 193. 81 191. 3 189. 3 93. 94. 89. 91. 8 5 7 0 30.6 30.9 31.9 29.0 10. 0 19. 1 19.7 19. 4 48.2 49.2 50.0 49. 8 196. 1 100.2 207.9 96.8 206.7 96. 1 209.8 95.9 56. 1 65.3 64 6 67.5 23.0 23. 9 24 9 25. 9 14 3 14 3 15. 0 14 8 5.0 5.5 5.8 5.7 2.5 -2. 1 —. 4 .0 -4.5 -14 1 -15.4 — 20. 5 1971:1. II" III. IV * 196. 5 197. 7 197. 8 86. 6 87. 6 88. 8 93.0 34.1 34 8 20.7 19.9 33.2 19.7 20.7 55. 1 55.5 56. 1 57.2 212.7 96.4 221.4 96.0 224 6 97.6 229.4 100.6 69.6 77.8 78.0 78.2 27.0 29.5 30.2 32.0 14 0 13.3 13.9 13.8 5.8 48 48 47 .0 .0 .0 .0 -16.2 — 23. 7 — 26. 7 Estimates. I •i 37 POSTAGE AND FEES PAID U S GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE UNITED S GOVERNMENT PRI DIVISION Or PUBLIC WASHINGTON, D,C. 2O4O2 OFFICIAL BUSINESS First-Class Mail Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING The Nation's Income, Expenditure, and Saving Gross National Product or Expenditure National Income. Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits __ Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Measures of Unemployment and Part-Time Employment Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Weekly Hours of Work—Selected Industries _ Average Hourly and Weekly Earnings—Selected Industries PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Production of Selected Manufactures Weekly Indicators of Production New Construction _ New Housing Starts and Applications for Financing Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade.. Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and New Orders Merchandise Exports and Imports „,_-_ U.S. Balances on Goods, Services, and Transfers U.S. Overall Balances on International Transactions PRICES Consumer Prices Wholesale Prices ..._ Prices Received and Paid by Farmers MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Supply — Selected Liquid Assets Held by the Public Bank Loans, Investments, Debits, and Reserves Consumer and Real Estate Credit Bond Yields and Interest Rates. __ Common Stock Prices, Yield, and Earnings FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Budget Receipts, Expenditures, and Net Lending Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis — 10 11 12 13 14 15 ^— -- 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402 Price 25 cents per copy, $3 per year; $4 foreign. Domestic air mail, $3.60 additional per year. 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 NOTE.—Detail in these tables will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise stated, all dollar figures are in current prices. P Indicates preliminary and not available. 38 Page 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE; 1972