Full text of Economic Indicators : February 1990
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101st Congress, 2d Session 15! BANK ©p CHICAGO Economic Indicators FEBRUARY 1990 (Includes data available as of March 2, 1990) Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1990 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Chairman PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California) DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin) JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York) FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California) STEPHEN J. SOLARZ (New York) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine) HAMILTON FISH, JR. (New York) FREDERICK S. UPTON (Michigan) SENATE LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico) ALBERT GORE, JR. (Tennessee) RICHARD H. BRYAN (Nevada) WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) STEVE SYMMS (Idaho) PETE WILSON (California) CONNIE MACK (Florida) JOSEPH J. MINARIK, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS MICHAEL J. BOSKIN, Chairman JOHN B. TAYLOR, Member RICHARD L. SCHMALENSEE, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—S!ST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary. Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.25 a singie copy ($2.81 foreign), or by subscription at $24.00 per year ($30.00 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON. D.C. 20402 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING NATIONAL PRODUCT In the fourth quarter of 1989, according to revised estimates, current-dollar gross national product (GNP) rose 4.4 percent (annual rate) or $56.6 billion. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 0.9 percent and the implicit price deflator rose 3.2 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 5,600 5,600 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES — 5,200 •^ 4,800 ^ ^\ 5,200 4,800 4,400 4,400 ^ GNP RRENT DOLLAR 4,000 s ^ 4,000 \^ .^ 3,200 - GNP ^^ IN 19 82 DOLLARS ^xT ^ '"*-- 3,600 \ ^.— "*~~ " — ,.--•""' ... 3,600 _ — — =~ -^ -^"^ 3,200 -^- — 2,800 2,400 2,800 \ 1 1 1981 M" I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1983 1982 1 1 1984 1 1 1985 1 1 1986 1 1 1 I 1987 2,400 1988 SOURCE' DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1980 . 1981 1982 1983 1984. 1985 1986.. 1987 1988.. 1989 1982: 19831984: 1985: 1986: 1987- IV IV IV IV IV IV 1988: I II m IV 1989: I II III IV ' 1 Gross private domestic investment 2,732.0 3,052.6 3,166.0 3,405.7 3,772.2 4,014.9 4,231.6 4,524.3 4,880.6 5,233.3 1,732.6 1,915.1 2,050.7 2,234.5 2,430.5 2,629.0 2,797.4 3,010.8 3.235.1 3,470.8 437.0 515.5 447.3 502.3 664.8 643.1 659.4 699.9 750.3 774.3 32.1 33.9 26.3 -6.1 -58.9 -78.0 -97.4 -112.6 -73.7 -47.7 351.0 382.8 361.9 352.5 383.5 370.9 396.5 448.6 547.7 625.3 318.9 348.9 335.6 358.7 442.4 448.8 493.8 561.2 621.3 673.0 530.3 588.1 641.7 675.0 735.9 820.8 872.2 926.1 968.9 1,036.0 208.1 242.2 272.7 283.5 310.5 355.2 366.5 381.6 381.3 402.9 142.7 167.5 193.8 214.4 234.3 259.1 277.8 294.8 298.0 302.2 65.4 74.8 78.9 69.1 76.2 86.0 88.7 86.8 83.3 100.7 3,212.5 3,545.8 3,851.8 4.107.9 4,297.3 4,665.8 2.117.0 2',315.3 2,493.4 2,700.4 2,868.5 3,083.3 409.6 579.8 661.8 654.1 648.8 749.7 14.1 — 25.8 -67.9 -103.2 -108.9 -114.6 335.9 364.7 385.7 369.2 402.4 482.6 321.9 390.5 453.6 472.4 511.3 597.2 671.8 676.1 764.5 858.7 888.9 947.5 293.2 276.1 326.0 376.6 368.8 388.1 205.4 221.5 244.1 268.6 280.7 296.8 4,739.8 4,838.5 4,926.9 5,017.3 3,148.1 3,204.9 3,263.4 3,324.0 728.8 748.4 771.1 752.8 -82.8 -74.9 -66.2 -70.8 521.6 532.5 556.8 579.7 604.3 607.5 623.0 650.5 945.7 960.1 958.6 1,011.4 374.1 377.1 367.5 406.4 5,113.1 5,201.7 5,281.0 5 337 6 3,381.4 3,444.! 3,508.1 3,549.3 769.6 775.0 779.1 773.6 -54,0 -50.6 -45.1 -41.2 605.6 626.1 628.5 641.0 659.6 676.6 673.6 682.2 1,016.0 1,033.2 1,038.9 1,056.0 399.0 406.0 402.7 404.0 Final sales Gross domestic purchases * 322.2 345.9 369.0 391.5 425.3 465. 6 505.7 544.5 587.6 633.1 2,740.3 3,028.6 3,190.5 3,412.8 3,704.5 4,003.6 4,224.8 4,495.0 4,850.0 5,205.4 2,699.8 3,018.7 3,139.7 3,411.8 3,831.1 4,092.8 4,329.0 4,636.8 4,954.3 5,281.1 87.7 54.6 81.9 108.0 88.1 91.3 378.7 400.0 438.5 480.1 520.1 559.4 3,272.4 3,514.8 3,806.8 4,100.7 4,309.4 4,602.5 3,198.5 3,571.6 3,919.7 4,211.2 4,406.2 4,780.4 297.4 298.0 296. 1 300.5 76.7 79.1 71.4 105.9 571.6 583.0 59 1 .0 604.9 4,709.8 4,809.2 4,882.3 4,998.7 4,822.5 4,913.4 4,993.1 5,088.1 298.7 301.3 307.8 301.2 100.4 104.7 94.9 102.8 617.0 627.2 636.2 652.0 5,085.4 5,174.3 5,253.6 5,308.1 5.167.1 5,252.3 5,326.1 5,378.8 Federal Net exports GNP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Government purchases of goods and services Exports and imports of goods and services Personal consumption expenditures Gross national product Exports Imports Total Total National defense Nondefense State and local Source: Department of Commeree, Bureau of Economic Analys. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS Exports and imports of goods and services Gross private domestic hives ment Period 1080 1981 1982 Gross domestic purchases 1 Net exports Exports 57.0 49.4 26.3 — 19.9 -84.0 — 104.3 -129.7 — 115.7 -74.9 — 52.9 388.9 392.7 361.9 348.1 371.8 367.2 397.1 450.9 530.1 588.9 332.0 343.4 335.6 368.1 455.8 471.4 526.9 566.6 605.0 641.8 620.5 629.7 641.7 | 649.0 677.7 731.2 761.6 781.8 785.1 805.8 336.0 355.5 376.6 367.4 406.5 484.1 324.3 401.6 471.4 492.6 541.9 593.9 660.1 642.2 693.2 752.7 776.0 Imports Total 80.3 373.6 370.1 369.0 373.9 387.0 405.2 427.5 442.1 456.2 469.0 3,194.0 3,225.0 3,190.5 3,285.5 3,439.1 3,609.6 3,712.4 3,830.0 3,996.5 4,120.8 3,130.1 3,199.4 3,139.7 3,299.1 3,585.4 3,723.0 3,847.6 3,969.4 4,099.3 4,196.5 241 .4 255.8 266.7 88.2 54.4 75.2 99.2 86.6 78.2 370.6 376.2 392.7 412.1 433.6 447.2 3,218.6 3,338. 1 3,493.5 3,654.7 3,754.4 3,879.0 3,147.6 3,411.3 3,630.0 3,787.6 3,869.0 4,045.5 National defense Nondefense 246.9 259.6 272.7 275.1 290.8 326.0 334.1 339.6 328.9 336.8 171.2 180.3 193.8 206.9 218.5 237.2 75.7 79.3 78.9 68.2 72.3 88.8 82.0 201.4 Total State and local 379.2 395.2 366.7 361.2 425.2 453.5 438.4 455.5 493.8 509.9 137.0 126.5 105.1 149.3 170.9 174.4 195.7 194.8 194.1 188.6 -6.9 23.9 -24.5 — 6.4 62.3 3,159.3 3,365.1 3,535.2 3,662.4 3,733.6 3,935.6 2,078.7 2,191.9 2,281.1 2,386.9 2,477.8 2,532.3 352.3 390.4 444.4 460.9 435.7 472.7 115.8 159.9 169.6 1 79.4 200.3 191.9 -59.3 27.0 41.7 -20.8 56.6 11.7 -46.2 -94.8 -125.3 -135.4 -109.8 792.1 289.5 266.0 300.5 340.6 342.4 344.9 n in IV 3,974.8 4,010.7 4,042.7 4,069.4 2,570.8 2,586.8 2,608.1 2,627.7 483.6 497.8 501.0 492.7 189.1 194.2 195.1 198.1 34.3 21.5 37.5 18.3 — 78.2 -72.6 -74.9 -73.8 517.4 519.7 531.9 551.4 595.6 592.3 606.9 625.2 775.1 783.0 775.9 806.4 323.8 327.9 319.8 343.9 263.0 262.5 258.8 261.6 60.8 65.4 61.0 82.3 451.3 455.1 456.1 462.5 3,940.5 3,989.2 4,005.2 4,051.0 4,052.9 4,083.3 4,117.6 4,143.2 1 II Ill IV '. 4,106.8 4,132.5 4,182.9 4,172.4 2,641.0 2,653.7 2,690.1 2,692.6 501.0 511.4 517.9 509.4 195.6 189.3 184.8 184.5 24.5 19.1 21.9 26.2 -55.0 -51.2 -57.1 -48.2 569.7 587.5 593.1 605.4 624.6 638.7 650.2 653.5 799.7 810.3 805.3 807.9 335.5 343.6 336.1 331.9 254.4 255.8 260.1 255.6 81.1 87.8 76.0 76.3 464.2 466.7 469.2 476.0 4,082.3 4,113.5 4,141.0 4,146.2 4,161.8 4,183.7 4,220.0 4,220.6 IV 1984: IV 1985: IV 1986: IV 1987: IV 1988- I 1 Residential fixed Final sales Federal [ 2,000.4 2,024.2 2,050.7 2,146.0 2,249.3 2,354.8 2^446.4 2,513.7 2,598.4 2,669.4 1982: IV 1989: Nonresidential fixed Change in business inventories 3,187.1 3,248.8 3,166.0 3,279.1 3,501.4 3,618.7 3,717.9 3,853.7 4,024.4 4,143.7 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 r 1983: Personal consumption expenditures Gross national product Government purchases of goods and services 9.1 5.6 23.7 27.9 22.9 7.7 GNI' less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. 252.1 265.2 261.5 256.5 211.6 225.3 74.4 67.4 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1982—100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Personal consumption expenditures Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Gross national product . r Gross private domestic investment Exports and imports of goods and services Government purchases of goods and services Federal Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Services dential fixed Residential fixed Exports Imports Total National defense Nondefense State and local 85.7 94.0 100.0 103.9 107.7 110.9 113.8 117.4 121.3 126.3 86.6 94.6 100.0 104.1 108.1 111.6 114.3 119.8 124.5 130.0 89.2 95.7 100.0 102.1 103.8 104.8 105.6 108.1 • 110.1 111.3 89.4 96.9 100.0 102.1 105.0 107.5 107.3 112.1 116.3 122.5 83.9 92.6 100.0 106.2 111.6 116.8 122.4 129.0 134.9 141.2 85.1 93.4 100.0 98.8 97.9 97.7 99.3 97.5 98.7 100.3 89.4 96.6 100.0 102.2 106.0 108.3 111.1 116.2 119.7 124.5 90.2 97.5 100.0 101.3 103.2 101.0 99.8 99.5 103.3 106.2 96.0 101.6 100.0 97.4 97.1 95.2 93.7 99.0 102.7 104.9 84.3 93.3 100.0 103.1 106.8 109.0 109.7 112.4 115.9 119.6 83.4 92.9 100.0 103.6 107.2 109.2 110.2 111.1 114.0 117.8 86.4 94.3 100.0 101.4 105.5 108.2 108.1 116.7 123.6 125.4 86.2 93.4 100.0 104.7 109.9 114.9 118.3 123.2 128.8 135.0 19821983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: IV IV IV TV IV IV 101.7 105.4 109.0 112.2 115.1 118.6 101.8 105.7 109.3 113.1 115.8 121.8 100.7 103.1 104.1 104.7 106.2 109.0 101.0 103.1 105.8 108.7 107.8 113.7 102.7 108.3 113.5 119.0 124.9 131.5 100.7 98.3 97.9 97.9 100.0 97.0 99.1 103.1 107.2 109.0 112.4 118.7 100.0 102.6 102.4 100.5 99.0 99.7 99.3 97.2 96.2 95.9 94.4 100.6 101.3 103.8 108.5 110.6 107.7 112.5 102.0 104.7 108.3 111.3 109.7 111.3 99.5 100.3 108.9 108.8 101.7 116.8 102.2 106.3 111.7 116.5 120.0 125.1 1988: I 11 III IV 119.2 120.6 121.9 123.3 122.5 123.9 125.1 126.5 109.3 109.6 110.2 111.2 114.0 115.9 117.1 118.2 132.7 134.2 135.6 137.3 97.7 97.8 98.4 100.6 119.5 119.5 119.6 120.4 100.8 102.5 104.7 105.1 101.5 102.6 102.7 104.0 115.5 115.0 114.9 118.2 113.1 113.5 114.4 114.9 126.2 121.0 117.1 128.7 126.7 128.1 129.6 130.8 124.5 125.9 126.9 127 9 128.0 129.8 130.4 131.8 111.2 110.8 111.4 111.7 120.0 123.3 122.9 124.0 139.0 140.4 141.8 143.4 100.4 100.2 100.3 100.4 122.1 124.2 125.6 126.2 106.3 106.6 106.0 105.9 105.6 105.9 103.6 104.4 118.9 118.2 119.8 121.7 117.4 117.8 118.3 117.8 123.8 119.2 125.0 134.7 132.9 134.4 135.6 137.0 1989: I II III IV ' Source: Department of Commerce, Bui CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES Gross national product Period Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars Implicit price deflator 1'ersonal consumption expenditures Chain price Fixedweighted price index Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars Implicit price deflator Chain price index weights) 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 198''198319841985198619871988- -0.2 1.9 -2.5 3.6 6.8 3.4 2.7 3.7 4.4 r 3.0 .6 7.3 1.7 3.0 2.3 6.6 4.0 3.7 3.2 2.7 3.7 2.5 3.0 .9 8.9 11.7 3.7 7.6 10.8 6.4 5.4 6.9 7.9 7.2 4.2 12.4 4.7 6.2 4.2 9.0 6.5 8.6 7.5 7.5 7.9 7.1 6.2 4.4 1980 1981 .. IV IV IV IV IV IV I II Ill IV 1989- I II Ill IV ' 9.0 9.7 6.4 3.9 3.7 3.0 2.6 3.2 3.3 4.1 3.6 4.7 3.0 3.3 1.8 2.4 2.0 4.8 4.4 4.7 4.0 4.6 3.2 3.2 NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year anil quarterly changes are from previous quarter. weights) 9.3 9.3 6.2 4.1 4.0 3.4 2.7 3.6 4.2 4.5 4.0 4.0 3.2 3.3 3.1 3.8 3.8 4.8 5.2 4.3 4.8 5.0 2.9 3.6 9.0 9.4 6.3 4.1 3.9 3.3 2.5 3.4 3.7 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.1 3.2 2.7 3.3 3.3 4.3 4.4 4.1 4.6 4.9 2.8 3.5 Fixedweighted price index 10.7 9.2 5.7 4.1 3.8 3.2 2.4 4.8 3.9 4.4 10.9 9.2 5.7 5.3 5.5 4.3 1.9 2.2 4.4 4.3 3.0 4.0 3.9 4.4 4.8 4.1 3.1 4.2 3.9 4.3 6.2 2.5 3.3 3.0 2.0 1.9 5.6 .4 2.3 4.7 3.9 4.6 2.6 5.0 4.3 4-8 4.7 5.8 2.1 4.3 10.6 10.5 7.1 9.0 8.8 8.2 6.4 7.6 7.4 7.3 -0.2 1.2 10.3 9.7 7.2 6.0 6.2 3.6 8.7 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.1 7.6 7.6 4.8 1.3 4.6 4.8 4.7 3.9 2.8 3.4 97 10.5 5.6 4.2 4.0 3.5 2.7 4.7 4.3 4.7 4.8 4.1 3.2 4.3 3.9 4.5 2.6 5.1 4.6 4.9 4.8 6.3 2.2 4.4 3.9 3.5 2 7 4.7 4.1 4.5 4.8 5.7 1.9 4.4 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS-OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dollars) l Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars) Period Current dollars 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1982198319841985198619871988- IV IV IV IV IV IV I II Ill IV 1989- I II III 1 .. .. .. 1982 dollars 1,540.8 1,807.9 1,738.4 1,837.2 1,782.2 1,782.2 1,914.2 1 ,866.0 2,146.7 2,036.5 2,267.1 2,117.4 2,367.1 2,173.9 2,520.7 2,282.6 2,731.3 2,419.5 r 2,903.8 '2,478.9 1,779.4 1,760.2 2,012.5 1,940.5 2,201.8 2,069.5 2,309.4 2,137.7 2,408.7 2,198.5 2,598.4 2,343.3 2,648.1 2,381.8 2,705.9 2,408.9 2,754.9 2,434.1 2,816.4 2,453.2 2,459.1 2,842.7 2,887.2 2,471.3 2,936.2 2,497.2 Total cost and profit 2 Indirect business taxes 3 0.852 .946 1.000 1.026 1.054 1.071 1.089 1.104 1.129 r l.!71 1.011 1.037 1.064 1.080 1.096 1.109 1.112 1.123 1.132 1.148 1.156 1.168 1.176 0.095 .109 .125 .123 .118 .119 .123 .123 .123 .128 .131 .120 .118 .120 .124 .122 .122 .122 .122 .124 .125 .126 .129 0.077 .090 .094 .098 .100 .103 .106 .106 .107 .111 .096 .098 .102 .104 .106 .106 .106 .107 .108 .108 .110 .111 .112 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1982 dol- lars. 2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment 3 4 Compensation of employees Net interest 0.581 .632 .676 .679 .687 .704 .721 .730 .744 .782 .685 .680 .694 .713 .727 .734 .732 .740 .746 .756 .768 .778 .783 0.031 .037 .043 .037 .039 .038 .041 .047 .052 .060 .042 .037 .042 .037 .042 .050 .050 .051 .053 .055 .057 .060 .061 Total 0.068 .078 .063 .089 .109 .106 .098 .098 .103 .090 .057 .103 .107 .106 .096 .098 .102 .103 .102 .105 .096 .093 .091 Profits tax liability 0.037 .035 .026 .032 .036 .033 .035 .041 .044 .039 .023 .036 .032 .033 .038 .041 .041 .044 .044 .045 .045 .041 .038 Profits after tax 4 0.031 .044 .037 .057 .073 .073 .064 .058 .059 .051 .034 .066 .075 .072 .058 .057 .060 .059 .058 .061 .051 .053 .053 Output per hour of all employees (1982 dollars) Compensation per hour of all employees (dollars) 18.524 18.643 18.704 19.217 19.682 19.996 20.456 20.908 21.393 10.769 11.777 12.635 13.039 13.528 14.069 14.746 15.252 15.907 18.770 19.422 19.784 20.116 20.650 21.176 21.382 21.401 21.469 21.446 21.356 21.364 21.522 12.866 13.208 13.735 14.341 15.008 15.535 15.645 15.833 16.024 16.213 16.407 16.625 16.843 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period National income Compensation of employeea1' Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Farm 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 r Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment Nonfarm Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Profits wi h inventory valuation adjustme it and without capital consu mption adjustment Total Total Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment Capital consumption adjustment Net interest 2,518.4 2,719.5 8,028.6 3,234.0 3,412.6 3,665.4 3,972.6 4,264.9 1,907.0 2,020.7 2,213.9 2,367.5 2,511.4 2,690.0 2,907.6 3,144.3 24.6 12.4 30.5 30.2 34.7 41.6 39.8 46.4 150.9 178.4 204.0 225.6 247.2 270.0 288.0 305.9 13.6 13.2 8.5 9.2 11.6 13.4 15.7 7.8 150.0 213.7 266.9 282.3 282.1 298.7 328.6 299.2 159.2 196.7 234.2 222.6 228.3 247.8 281.8 269.9 169.6 207.6 240.0 224.3 221.6 266.7 306.8 288.5 -10.4 - 10.9 -5.8 -1.7 6.7 - 18.9 -25.0 -18.6 -9.2 17.0 32.7 59.7 53.8 50.9 46.8 29.4 272.3 281.0 304.8 319.0 325.5 351.7 392.9 461.1 IV IV IV IV IV IV 2,548.2 2,851.5 3,096.1 3,312.8 3 473 1 3,799.9 1,931.1 2,092.7 2,272.7 2,426.7 2571 2 2,778.7 28.5 19.3 28.1 29.2 37.2 48.4 159.8 188.6 209.7 235.0 252.0 280.3 15.8 12.4 5.6 7.8 13.5 14.3 146.1 248.5 266.9 291.4 275.2 308.2 150.7 223.4 224.6 228.4 226.1 255.8 164.1 231.5 226.1 235.0 234.1 276.2 -13.4 -8.1 -1.6 -6.6 -8.0 -20.4 -4.5 25.1 42.3 63.0 49.1 52.4 266.9 290.2 313.1 322.7 324.0 370.0 1988- I II Ill IV 3,853.6 3,933.6 4,005.7 4,097.4 2.819.4 2,878.9 2,935.1 2,997.2 44.0 45.4 37.7 32.0 279.9 286.5 289.3 296.3 15.6 14.6 16.3 16.1 318.1 325.3 330.9 340.2 268. 1 276.4 284.1 298.7 288.8 305.3 314.4 318.8 -20.7 -28.8 -30.4 -20.1 49.9 485) 46.9 41.5 376.6 3B3.0 396.4 415.7 1989- I II ... . Ill IV ' .... 4,185.2 4,249.6 4,287.3 3,061.7 3,118.2 3,171.9 3,225.6 59.0 51.3 36.1 39.5 300.3 304.2 307.2 311.9 11.8 9.8 5.4 4.4 318.3 307.8 295.2 279.7 275.5 268.7 318.0 296.0 275.0 -38.3 -20.5 -6.3 -9.4 36.6 32.3 26.5 22.0 436.1 458.4 471.5 478.4 19821983' 1984198519861987- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nondurable goods Durable goods Period 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 ' Total personal consumption expenditures Total durable goods Motor vehicles and parts Furniture and household equipment Other Total nondurable goods Food Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil Other Services Retail sales of new passenger cars (millions of units) Domestics Imports 2,050.7 2,234.5 2 430 5 2,629.0 2,797.4 3,010.8 3,235.1 3,470.8 252.7 289.1 335.5 372.2 406.0 421.0 455.2 473.1 108.9 130.4 157.4 179.1 196.2 195.5 211.6 213.8 95.7 107.1 118.8 129.9 139.7 149.1 162.0 173.6 48.1 51.6 59.3 63.2 70.0 76.5 81.6 85.8 771.0 816.7 867.3 911.2 942.0 998.1 1,052.3 1,123.5 398.8 421.9 448.5 471.6 500.0 529.2 559.7 594.9 124.4 135.1 146.7 156.4 166.8 177.2 186.8 200.1 89.1 90.2 90.0 90.6 73.5 75.2 76.8 84.0 158.7 169.5 182.1 192.6 201.7 216.6 229.0 244.5 1,027.0 1,128.7 1,227.6 1,345.6 1,449.5 1,591.7 1,727.6 1,874.1 5.8 6.8 8.0 8.2 8.2 7.1 7.5 7.1 22 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.8 6.0 7.4 198219831 984198519861987- IV IV IV IV IV IV 2,117.0 2,315.8 2,493.4 2,700.4 2,868.5 3,083.3 263.8 31C.O 346.7 373.2 422.0 424.5 115.7 144.4 162.3 173.8 201.1 196.3 99.1 112.4 122.7 134.7 143.8 151.4 49.0 53.2 61.8 64.7 77.1 76.7 786.6 837.9 879.C 932.7 952.1 1,015.4 407.0 430.8 456.1 482.5 511.9 536.8 126.5 141.1 149.8 160.6 168.7 180.6 89.8 91.9 89.0 91.0 66.0 76.7 163.4 174.0 184.7 198.5 205.5 221.3 1,066.5 1,167.9 1,267.1 1,394.5 1,494.4 1,643.3 7.0 7.7 6.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.3 1988' I 11 III IV 3,148.1 3,204.9 3 263 4 3,324.0 446.4 454.6 45' 5 467.4 210.3 212.5 208.4 215.3 156.9 162.2 162.7 166.1 79.2 79.9 81.4 86.0 1,022.2 1,042.4 1,066.2 1,078.4 542.5 554.5 567.8 574.1 180.8 183.6 188.9 193.9 74.3 76.9 78.3 77.6 224.5 227.5 231.2 232.8 1,679.5 1,707.9 1,744.7 1,778.2 7.7 7.5 7.4 7.5 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 1989- 1 II Ill IV r. 3,381.4 3,444.1 3,508.1 3,549.3 466.4 471.0 486.1 469.1 211.7 212.9 225.6 204.8 172.1 173.5 173.9 174.8 82.8 84.6 86.7 89.5 1.098.3 1,121.5 1,131.4 1,142.8 587.3 592.2 598.1 601.8 195.0 198.9 202.2 204.3 77.9 89.5 85.2 83.5 238.1 241.0 245.9 253.1 1,816.7 1,851.7 1,890.6 1,937.4 7.0 7.3 7.9 6.2 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.6 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $35.9 billion (annual rate) in January following an increase of $22.7 billion in December. The January increase was boosted by cost-of-living adjustments to several Federal transfer payment programs and by a pay raise for Federal Government employees; it was reduced by an increase in personal contributions for social insurance programs and by a decrease in subsidy payments to farm proprietors. The December increase was reduced by decreases in subsidy payments to farm proprietors and in retroactive social security benefit payments. Excluding these special factors, personal income increased $24.8 billion in January and $28.6 billion in December. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 5,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) : 5,000 I 4,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 2,000 2,000 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 1,400 1,400 OTHER INCOME 800 800 -"\~ TRANSFER . PAYMENTS 400 1982 Illllllllll 1983 1984 I l l l l l l l l l l Mill 1985 1986 400 III 1987 1988 1989 1990 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1980 1981 . . . 1982 1983 . . .. 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 r 1989: Jan... Feb Mar.. Apr May.. June July.. Aug Sept.. Get T Nov r Dec ' 1990- Jan p Total personal income 2,258.4 2,520.9 2,670.8 2,838.6 3,108.7 3,325.3 3,526.2 3,777.6 4,064.5 4,427.9 4,273.1 4,319.5 4,360.7 4,387.1 4,396.3 4,417.5 4,443.7 4,456.9 4,467.1 4,501.8 4,543.9 4,566.6 4,602.5 Wage and salary disbursements 1 1,372.0 1,510.3 1,586.1 1,676.6 1,838.6 1,975.4 2,094.8 2,249.4 2,429.0 2,631.0 2,545.4 2,557.3 2,579.4 2,601.3 2,603.5 2,621.7 2,644.7 2,651.0 2,668.4 2,693.4 2,694.7 2,711.5 2,727.7 Proprietors' income 3 Other labor income 1 2 138.4 150.3 163.6 173.6 182.9 187.6 199.3 212.8 228.9 248.3 239.7 241.3 242.9 244.4 246.0 247.5 249.1 250.7 252.2 253.8 255.3 256.9 258.5 Farm 20.5 30.7 24.6 12.4 30.5 30.2 34.7 41.6 39.8 46.4 48.0 65.9 63.0 56.4 54.3 43.2 38.8 36.5 32.9 40.0 39.8 38.6 39.2 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. 2 Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Nonfarm 160.1 156.1 150.9 178.4 204.0 225.6 247.2 270.0 288.0 305.9 299.6 300.6 300.8 304.6 303.5 304.6 306.3 308.0 307.4 306.3 313.6 315.7 318.6 Rental income of persons 4 6.6 13.3 13.6 13.2 8.5 9.2 11.6 13.4 15.7 7.8 13.8 11.8 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.3 8.4 -1.6 82 9.8 11.7 13.3 Personal dividend income 52.9 61.3 63.9 68.7 75.5 78.7 85.8 92.0 102.2 112.4 108.4 109.4 110.3 111.0 111.4 111.8 112.8 113.3 113.6 114.8 115.8 116.4 117.2 Personal interest income 271.9 335.4 369.7 393.1 444.7 478.0 493.2 523.2 571.1 657.8 616.5 628.9 641.5 648.4 655.2 661.8 665.0 667.9 670.4 674.9 679.5 684.0 688.2 Transfer payments 5 324.7 368.1 410.6 442.6 456.6 489.8 521.5 548.2 584.7 632.3 610.7 614.2 624.2 623.9 625.5 630.9 632.6 636.4 640.2 644.6 653.1 650.9 667.5 4 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance 88.6 104.5 112.3 120.1 132.7 149.3 161.9 172.9 194.9 214.2 209.0 209.8 211.3 212.6 212.7 213.8 214.8 215.2 216.3 217.8 217.9 218.9 227.7 Nonfarm personal income B 2,215.8 2,465.6 2,618.7 2,799.0 3,052.1 3,271.3 3,469.4 3,714.7 4,003.7 4,359.9 4,204.0 4,232.4 4,276.5 4,309.4 4,320.5 4,352.6 4,383.1 4,398.6 4,412.4 4,440.0 4,482.3 4,506.2 4,541.6 With capital consumption adjustment. Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. 5 6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable personal income rose in the fourth quarter of 1989. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 4,000 3,800 BILLIONS Of DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 4,000 3,800 ,800 DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 16,000 r— PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 3URRENT DOLL 14,000 12,000 r- r^ 10,000 1 6,000 —' 14,000 —• 12,000 [. 10,000 ^^-. \ j=»— •— = 1982 DOL ARS _—- 8,000 8,000 1 6,000 ! 1 1 1 1 1982 1981 1 1 1 1983 1 1 1 1984 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1986 1985 1 1 1987 1 1 1 1988 1 1 1 6,000 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS ' SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE . Personal Less: Persona] Erm-ilr Disposable Less: Equals; outlavs l nontax Disposable personal Per capita disposable personal mco no Per capita persona! cons imption expenditures dollars dollars dollars 7,607 8,783 8,320 8 818 9 515 10 953 10 985 11,576 12 340 8,794 8818 9 139 9 489 9 839 10,123 10 303 1 1 337 1 1 ,682 13,948 10.728 1982 (billions) Billions of dollars 1980 1981 1982. 1983 1984 1985 198(5 1987 1988 1989 r. 2,258.5 2,520.9 2 670 8 2 838 6 3 108 7 3 325 3 3,526.2 3 777 6 4 064 5 4,427.9 340.5 393.3 409 '3 410 5 440 2 486 6 512.9 571 7 586 6 648.5 1,918.0 2,127.6 9 9(jl 4 9 498 1 9 068 g •~> 838 7 3,013.3 3 905 9 3 477 8 3,779.4 Percent ehange in real per capita dollars 2,214.3 2,248.6 2 261 5 9 331 9 2 469 8 9 549 8 2,635.3 2 676 6 9 793 2 2,906.7 8,421 9,243 9 7'-*4 10 340 1 1 957 1 1 861 12,469 13 140 15,189 9,722 9,769 9 794 9 930 10 419 10 625 10,905 iri qf7ri S income income. Dollars 1,781.1 136.9 1,968.1 159.4 2 107 5 1 153 9 9 997 4 j 1 qn R 9 504 5 164 1 2 713 3 125 4 2,888.5 124.9 3 104 1 101 8 144 7 3 333 1 3,574.2 205.2 Saving as ercent of Population, including Armed (thousands) 2 Percent -1.1 .5 ,~ 68 54 61 44 4.1 3 '> 227,754 230,182 i) > 3' 549 934 gog 9 37 051 °39 32^ 241,660 943 985 3.0 5.4 248,830 91 49 1 9 Q 2.6 7.1 7.5 33 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: IV IV IV IV IV IV 2.729.2 2,941.8 3,188.3 I 1 3,399.1 3.597.8 3,908.7 411.1 413.9 459.7 499.6 534.4 589.2 2,318.1 2,527.9 2,728.6 2,899.5 3.063.4 3,319.4 1988: I II III.... IV 3,948.5 4,026.6 4,097.6 4,185.2 572.2 590.7 585.9 597.8 1989: T . TI III.... IV r... 4,317.8 | 4,400.3 4,455.9 4,537.4 628.3 652.6 649.1 664.0 2,174.9 I 143.1 2,382.5 145.4 2,571.3 157.3 2,787.7 111.7 2,961.4 102.0 3,177.6 141.8 2,276.1 2,392.7 2,496.3 2,562.8 2,646.2 2,726.2 9,929 10,725 1 1,467 12,068 12,629 13,552 9,749 10,151 10,491 10,667 10,909 11,130 8,904 9,068 9,825 9,299 10,479 i 9,587 11,240 9,935 1 1 ,825 10,214 10,338 12,588 1.2 9.1 1.7 3.3 .3 6.6 6.2 233,466 5.8 235,707 5.8 237,946 3.9 240,257 3.3 ! 242,579 4.3 244,936 3.376.4 1 3.244.4 3,435.9 i 3,301.9 3,511.7 3.362.1 3,587,4 3,424.0 2,757.2 131.9 134.0 2,773.3 2,806.4 149.6 163.4 j 2,835.9 13,754 13.966 14,235 14,504 11,232 11,273 11,377 1 1,466 12,824 13.028 13,229 13,439 10,473 10.515 10,572 10,624 3.7 1.5 3.7 3.2 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.6 245,476 246,008 246,685 247,343 3,689.5 3,747.7 3,806.8 3,873.4 205.7 200.7 195.1 219.2 | 2.881.7 2,887.6 2.919.2 2,938.5 14,884 15,084 15,280 15,504 11,625 11,622 11,717 J 1 ,762 13,641 13,862 14,081 14,207 10,654 10,681 10,798 10,778 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.1 5.7 247,890 248,456 249,143 249,829 3,483.8 3,547.0 3.611.7 3,654.2 for (lit 1 prrir — .1 3.3 1.5 FARM INCOME In the third quarter of 1989, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income fell $8.4 billion (annual rate) and net farm Income fell $13.2 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO S CALE) 240 200 BILUC>NS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 240 200 n-.i, 160 "-~- --»* -* 160 7 120 120 80 80 An 60 40 40 20 20 10 10 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from farming Net farm income Gross farm income Period Cash marketing receipts Total ' Total 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1987- I n m .. .. IV 1988- I 11 Ill IV 1989- I II Ill " Livestock and products Crops Value of inventory changes - Production expenses Current dollars 1982 dollars 3 149.3 166.4 163.5 152.9 175.0 166.3 160.3 171.7 177.6 139.7 141.7 142.6 136.5 142.5 144.1 135.5 139.5 151.5 68.0 69.2 70.3 69.4 73.0 69.8 71.5 75.7 78.9 71.7 72.5 72.3 67.1 69.5 74.3 64.0 63.8 72.6 -6.3 6.5 -1.4 — 10.9 6.3 -2.4 — 2.7 — .4 -4.3 133.1 139.4 140.0 140.4 142.7 134.0 122.4 128.0 135.0 16.2 27.0 23.5 12.5 32.3 32.3 37.9 43.5 42.6 18.8 28.7 23.5 12.0 29.9 29. 1 33.4 37.1 35.2 170.4 172.4 167.8 175.9 174.7 182.0 175.0 178.6 131.3 143.8 144,8 138.1 144.4 148.8 160.4 152.2 72.8 76.4 77.8 75.8 81.8 75.3 78.3 80.3 58.6 67.4 66.9 62.2 62.6 73.5 82.1 71.9 -.1 .3 — .2 -1.7 -4.0 -4.4 -4.7 — 4.1 120.4 128.7 131.3 131.7 130.2 133.7 138.2 137.8 50.0 43.7 36.3 44.1 44.5 48.3 36.8 40.8 43.1 37.3 30.9 37.2 37.4 40.0 30.2 33.1 198.4 196.7 188.3 155.4 160.2 164.4 84.1 81.3 81.8 71.3 78.9 82.6 8.6 7.8 6.3 135.5 140.6 145.5 62.9 56.0 42.8 50.5 44.5 33.8 crop and 1 CORPORATE PROFITS In the third quarter of 1989, corporate profits before tax fell $21.0 billion (annual rate) and after-tax profits fell $8.7 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 360 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 320 /^ \ v / y ^ \ \ \ PROFITS BEFORE TAX / 240 r_/ PO /^ 200 ^ ,'•""" "~v s -..^ PR DFITS AFTER T; X **.- — — *. \ s s 160 "X. /• ,•-"' ^--^.. *N s \ 280 \ /' X , 120 ''.'- '~~\_.. ~<"~ V '"-*V '"•. — - —. \ / s ' " **\ »'" y 1 1 1 1 1 1982 1981 \. ,--' \ 1 80 TAX LIABILITY """^^ 1 1 1 UNDISTI IBUTED PROFI1 s^-— — "' 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1984 1983 40 \ 1985 1986 1 I 1 1 1987 1 1988 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1 1 1 0 1 '1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment l Profits after tax Domestic industries Period Nonfinancial Total z Total 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988.. 1989 r 19821983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: IV IV.. IV IV IV IV I II III IV 1989- I II Ill IV 1 2 Financial Total 3 Tax liability Wholesale and retail trade Total Dividends Undistributed profits Inventory valuation adjustment 194.0 202.3 159.2 196.7 234.2 222.6 228.3 247.8 281.8 269.9 159.6 173.8 131.2 166.6 203.3 191.4 195.2 208.7 238.2 223.2 21.0 16.5 11.8 18.1 13.0 22.8 32.0 30.5 29.8 24.4 138.6 157.3 119.4 148.5 190.3 168.6 163.2 178.2 208.4 198.9 77.1 88.5 58.0 70.1 88.8 79.7 59.5 76.6 98.4 87.3 21.6 32.5 34.6 38.9 51.2 44.1 44.1 41.1 40.1 37.0 237.1 226.5 169.6 207.6 240.0 224.3 221.6 266.7 306.8 288.5 84.8 81.1 63.1 77.2 93.9 96.4 106.3 124.7 137.9 129.2 152.3 145.4 106.5 130.4 146.1 127.8 115.3 142.0 168.9 159.3 54.7 63.6 66.9 71.5 79.0 83.3 91.3 98.7 110.4 122.1 97.6 81.8 39.6 58.9 67.0 44.6 24.0 43.3 58.5 37.2 -43.1 -24.2 -10.4 -10.9 -5.8 -1.7 6.7 -18.9 -25.0 -18.6 150.7 223.4 224.6 228.4 226.1 255.8 121.6 190.7 193.9 193.6 193.4 211.8 18.7 15.5 13.6 26.0 28.6 29.9 102.9 175.2 180.3 167.6 164.8 181.9 46.8 88.6 79.8 83.8 64.8 84.5 33.6 43.1 51.8 38.5 41.0 41.2 164.1 231.5 226.1 235.0 234.1 276.2 59.8 88.1 87.0 99.8 113.1 127.3 104.3 143.4 139.2 135.2 121.0 148.9 68.5 73.9 80.8 84.0 93.6 102.8 35.8 69.5 58.4 51.2 27.4 46.1 -13.4 -8.1 -1.6 -6.6 -8.0 -20.4 268.1 276.4 284.1 298.7 225.7 235.8 239.0 252.2 27.7 29.7 31.6 30.1 198.0 206.1 207.3 222.1 94.6 98.2 95.1 105.5 42.2 37.3 39.2 41.8 288.8 305.3 314.4 318.8 129.0 138.4 141.2 143.2 159.9 166.9 173.2 175.6 105.7 108.6 112.2 115.2 54.2 58.3 61.1 60.4 -20.7 -28.8 -30.4 — 20.1 279.7 275.5 268.7 233.1 231.8 223.0 29.3 28.6 17.8 203.9 203.2 205.2 96.5 90.3 86.6 34.1 36.9 41.9 318.0 296.0 275.0 144.4 134.9 122.6 173.6 161.1 152.4 118.5 120.9 123.3 125.6 55.1 40.2 29,1 -38.3 -20.5 -6.3 -9.4 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption E Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. Manufacturing Profits before tax 3 Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to revised estimates for the fourth quarter of 1989, nonresidential fixed investment fell $8.4 billion (annual rate) and residential investment rose $0.7 billion. There was a $29.5 billion increase in inventories, following an increase of $27.4 billion in the third quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 800 800 ' /~" ^^1 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC 700 '_ 700 •""~"~ ""^1 /——— -—^ \s1 - 600 600 -_^ 500 X r- ONRESIDENTI/U p|XED INVESTME MT / r~N \ / 400 500 ^ «.-..- - "" J - .»-•" 400 ""*"""-——. — -~~ RFS DENTIAL FIXED 1 NVESTMENT \ 300 - 300 _ 200 200 -__ „**•' **' 100 "' *~' / **s 1 -100 1 1981 1 >N 1 """\, 11 1982 t s% •"- *"~~x«i. CHANGE IN B USINESS INVENTO «IES ,'' 100 _ /% ^%^ / •'sx_ ,' ' f / 0 —. > .•''" 1 1 I 1983 I I I 1984 1 1 1 1985 ! ! 1 1986 1 1 1 1987 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1 1 1 1988 ! 1 1 1989 -10( COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Change in business inventories Fixed investment Period 1980 Gross private domestic investment . 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 r. 1982- IV 1983: IV 1984: IV 1985: IV 1986- IV 1987: IV. 1988: I n m IV 1989: I n mr IV Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Nonresidential Total Total 437.0 515.5 447.3 502.3 664.8 643.1 659.4 699.9 750.3 774.3 445.3 491.5 471.8 509.4 597.1 631.8 652.5 670.6 719.6 746.3 322.8 369.2 366.7 356.9 416.0 442.9 435.2 444.3 487.2 511.6 409.6 579.8 661.8 654.1 648.8 749.7 469.5 548.8 616.8 646.8 660.9 686.3 354.9 383.9 435.0 451.3 435.8 458.6 728.8 748.4 771.1 752.8 698.7 719.1 726.5 734.1 472.7 487.1 493.2 495.8 769.6 775.0 779.1 773.6 742.0 747.6 751.7 744.0 503.1 512.5 519.6 511.2 Structures 113.9 138.5 143.3 124.0 141.1 153.2 139.0 133.8 140.3 145.0 137.6 127.4 146.6 155.9 133.7 138.9 137.1 139.9 142.0 142.5 144.7 142.4 146.2 146.6 Producers' durable equipment 208.9 230.7 223.4 232.8 274.9 289.7 296.2 310.5 346.8 366.6 217.3 256.5 288.4 295.5 302.2 319.7 335.6 347.2 351.3 353.3 358.5 370.1 373.4 364.6 Residential 122.5 122.3 105.1 152.5 181.1 188.8 217.3 226.4 232.4 234.7 114.7 164.9 181.8 195.5 225.1 227.7 226.1 232.1 233.2 238.4 238.8 235.1 232.1 232.8 Total -8.3 24.0 -24.5 71 67.7 11.3 6.9 29.3 30.6 28.0 59 9 31.0 45.0 7.2 12 2 63.3 30.0 29.3 44.6 18.7 27.7 27.4 27.4 29.5 Nonfarm 24 18.3 23 1 .4 60.5 14.6 8.6 30.5 34.2 23.1 -51.1 21.3 41.3 23.7 -8.0 61.3 24.2 30.4 41.5 40.8 19.1 23.6 19.8 30.0 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT According to the Commerce Department October-November survey, business spending for new plant and equipment is expected to rise 6.4 percent in 1990, following a rise of 10.3 percent in 1989. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 600 600 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 500 500 400 400 ALL INDUSTRIES 300 300 NONMANUFACTURINGJ/ 200 200 T MANUFACTURING 100 100 I 1982 I I J I 1984 1983 I I 1985 J I I 1986 I I 1987 I I I 1988 i i r 1989 J/ SURVEYED QUARTERLY 2j SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Oe COMMERCE 1990 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Addenda Industries surveyed quarterly Manufacturing Period 1980 1981. 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 * 1990" 1988- I II III IV 1989- I 11 III IV4 . 1990: I 4 II4 Ail industries Total Durable goods Nonmanuiacturing Nondurable goods Total ' Mining Transportation Public utilities Commercial and other Total nonfarm business 2 Manufacturing 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.48 142.69 145.90 166.32 183 16 190 16 Total 202.15 222.72 226.79 227.15 260.16 278.46 284.54 294.77 317.17 Surveyed quarterly 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.65 236.78 243.78 264.44 29202 315 33 282.80 315.22 310.58 304.78 354.44 387.13 379.47 389.67 430.76 475.18 505.49 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.48 142.69 145.90 166.32 183.16 190.16 55.36 59.81 55.35 53.08 66.24 73.27 69.14 71.01 78.30 83.05 83.22 56.96 66.73 65.33 63.12 72.58 80.21 73.56 74.88 88.01 100.11 106.94 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.65 236.78 243.78 264.44 292.02 315.33 15.99 21.39 20.05 15.19 16.86 15.88 11.22 11.39 12.66 12.50 12.01 16.60 15.84 14.79 13.97 16.52 18.02 18.80 18.85 21.34 25.24 26.41 37.74 41.21 45.43 44.98 47.48 48.81 46.38 44.88 46.67 50.06 50.14 100.14 110.24 109.63 114.45 134.75 150.94 160.38 168.65 183.76 204.22 226.78 413.34 427.54 435.61 442.11 157.97 162.62 168.76 173.32 75.28 77.38 79.15 80.56 82.69 85.24 89.62 92.76 255.37 264.92 266.85 268.79 12.61 13.15 12.53 12.38 20.35 20.95 22.02 22.04 45.05 45.60 46.69 48.73 177.37 185.21 185.61 185.65 157.97 162.62 168.76 173 32 255 37 264.92 266 85 26879 459.47 470.86 484.93 485.45 175.22 181.53 187.66 188.21 81.26 82.97 85.66 82.30 93.96 98.57 102.00 105.90 284.24 289.33 297.28 297.25 12.15 12.70 12.59 12.58 23.13 24.26 28.53 25.04 50.81 52.01 49.57 47.86 198.15 200.36. 206.59 211.76 175 '2 181.53 187.66 188.21 284 24 289.33 297 28 297.25 503.46 518.27 193.76 198.70 86.84 88.43 106.92 110.27 309.70 319.57 12.23 12.83 26.61 27.56 51.89 53.11 218.97 226.07 193.76 198 70 309.70 319.57 4 314.47 349.26 347.47 343.35 398.99 431.94 427.23 440.66 483.48 Nonmanufacturing Planned capital expenditures as reported by busm Surveyed annualIy3 31.68 34.04 36.89 38.56 44.55 44.81 47.75 50.99 52.73 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES In January, civilian employment fell 25,000 and unemployment fell 123,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 126 MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 126 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 122 122 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE 118 118 \ 114 114 110 110 _ CIVILIAN 106 106 EMPLOYMENT 102 102 98 98 ^ ^ S 12 12 \ UNEMPLOYMENT 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1989 1988 1990 '16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of persons IB years of age and over, except us noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Resident Armed Forces NSA Labor force including resident Armed Forces 171,775 173,939 175,891 178,080 179,912 182,293 184,490 186,322 188,081 1,645 1,668 1,676 1,697 1,706 1,706 1,737 1,709 1,688 HO',315 111,872 113,226 115,241 117,167 119,540 121,602 123,378 125,557 102,042 101,194 102,510 106,702 108,856 111,303 114,177 116,677 119.030 108,670 110,204 111,550 113,544 115,461 117,834 119,865 121,669 123,869 100,397 99,526 100,834 105,005 107,150 109,597 112,440 114,968 117,342 3,368 3,401 3,383 3,321 3,179 3,163 3,208 3,169 3,199 97,030 96,125 97,450 101,685 103,971 106,434 109,232 111,800 114,142 Oct Nov Dec 187,340 187,461 187,581 187,708 187,854 187,995 188,149 188,286 188,428 188,580 188,721 188,865 1,696 1,684 1,684 1,684 1,673 1,666 1,666 1,688 1,702 1,709 1,704 1,700 124,961 124,801 124,929 125,299 125,224 125,777 125,679 125,758 125,725 125,857 126,192 126,246 118,336 118,441 118,731 118,768 118,805 119,208 119,102 119,238 119,121 119,294 119,540 119,588 123,265 123,117 123,245 123,615 123,551 124,111 124,013 124,070 124,023 124,148 124,488 124,546 116,640 116,757 117,047 117,084 117,132 117,542 117,436 117,550 117,419 117,585 117,836 117,888 3,268 3,196 3,185 3,144 3,137 3,138 3,217 3,275 3,219 3,197 3,160 3,197 1 990: Jan 188,990 1,697 126,094 119,560 124,397 117,863 3,134 Period 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986* 1987 1988 1989 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Unemployment Civilian employment Noninstitutional population including resident Armed Forces NSA Employment including resident Armed Forces Nonagrieultural Civilian labor force Agricultural Total Civilian Labor force participation rate (per-z cent) Employment/ population ratio (percent) 2 Total 15 weeis and over 4,499 5,852 5,997 5,512 5,334 5,345 5,122 4,965 4,657 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,237 7,425 6,701 6,528 2,285 3,485 4,210 2,737 2,305 2,232 1,983 1,610 1,375 63.9 64.0 64.0 64.4 64.8 65.3 65.6 65.9 66.5 59.0 57.8 57.9 59.5 60.1 60.7 61.5 62.3 63.0 113,372 113,561 113,862 113,940 113,995 1 14,404 114,219 114,275 114,200 114,388 114,676 114,691 4,831 4,722 4,720 4,855 4,643 4,738 4,583 4,567 4,605 4,526 4,552 4,554 6,625 6,360 6,198 6,531 6,419 6,569 6,577 6,520 6,604 6,563 6,652 6,658 1,499 1,300 1,3,35 1,391 1,331 1,295 1,461 1 ,338 1,359 1,378 1,422 1,362 66.4 66.3 66.3 66.5 66.4 66.6 66.5 66.5 66.4 66.4 66.6 66.5 62.8 62.8 63.0 62.9 62.9 63.1 63.0 63.0 62.9 62.9 63.0 63.0 114,728 4,729 6,535 1,430 66.4 62.9 Total Part time for economic reasons 1 * Data beginning January 1986 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of change in 'stimation procedures. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In January, the overall unemployment rate fell slightly from its December level, to 5.2 percent; the civilian unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.3 percent. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 25 25 20 20 A'^XV 15 15 'YA A -.. A ~ V ~ \/ — TEENAGERS (16-19 10 10 BLACK AND OTHER WOM 5N 20 YEARS AND OVER ALL CIVILIAN WORKERS \ ""Vcs^^ \ \ <.' — - WHITE 11111111111 1988 1987 1986 ME N 20 YEARS AND OVER 1989 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i p 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1,,,,,(,,,,, 1986 1987 1989 1988 1990 1 1 11 11! 11 1 1 1990 'UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Lnemplovment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) Period Unemployment rate, all workITS ' 1981 1982 1983 . 1984 1985 . 1986 1987 1988 1989 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June .... July Aug Sept 1990: Oct Nov Dec Jan By sex and age civ an workers 7.5 9.5 95 7.4 7.1 6.9 6.1 5.4 5.2 7.6 9.7 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.3 A .2 .0 .3 2 .3 .3 .3 .3 .3 .3 5.2 5.3 12 By selected groups Bv race All 96 7.5 7.2 7.0 6.2 5.5 .3 "s, Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over Both sexes 16-19 vears Black White and Black other Experienced wage and salary workers Married men, spouse present Women who maintain families Fulltime workers Parttime workers 10.4 11.7 12.2 10.3 1ft i 98 9.2 8.1 8.1 7.3 9.6 9.5 7.2 6.8 6.6 5.8 5.2 4.9 9.4 10.5 10.4 9.3 9.3 9.1 8.4 7.6 7.3 Labor force time lost (percent) 2 6.3 8.8 89 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.4 4.8 4.5 8.3 8.1 6.8 6.6 6.2 5.4 4.9 4.7 19.6 23.2 22.4 18.9 18.6 18.3 16.9 15.3 15.0 6.7 8.6 8.4 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.3 4.7 4.5 14.2 17.3 17.8 14.4 13.7 13.1 11.6 10.4 10.0 15.6 18.9 19.5 15.9 15.1 14.5 13.0 1 1.7 11.4 7.3 9.3 9.2 7.1 6.8 6.6 5.8 5.0 6.5 6.5 4.6 4.3 4.4 ! 3.9 3.3 3.0 4.6 4.5 4.2 4.6 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.8 | 4.5 I 4.6 4.6 j 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.8 4.8 4.8 16.1 14.8 14.0 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.1 14.8 15.0 14.9 15.3 15.2 4.6 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 10.5 10.3 9.8 9.7 9.6 10.2 9.6 9.7 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.2 11.7 11.6 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.8 11.0 11.2 11.7 11.7 11.9 11.8 5.2 4.9 4.8 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.2 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.0 3.1 3.0 7.9 8.0 7.9 7.8 8.2 7.9 8.5 8.0 7.7 7.8 8.2 8.1 5.0 4.8 4.8 5.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 7.7 7.2 6.4 7.2 6.9 7.7 7.2 7.1 7.3 7.1 7.4 7.5 6.1 6.0 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9 6.0 4.7 4.6 14.5 4.5 10.1 11.3 5.1 3.4 7.5 5.0 7.0 6.0 6.8 fi 9 4.3 8.5 11.0 10.9 8.6 8.1 7.9 7.1 6.3 5.9 SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In January, the percentage of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks fell and the percentages for 5-14 weeks, for 15-26 weeks, and for 27 weeks and over rose. Both the mean duration of unemployment and the median rose. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 70 REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT 60 60 50 50 7W-V- A TA JOB LOSERS 40 REENTRANTS 30 30 .•—V-J 27 WEEKS AND OVER' 20 ^ 20 JOB LEAVERS \ 10 10 NEW ENTRANTS 15-26 WEEKS 0 111niIt 1986 1987 1988 1986 1990 1989 1988 1987 1989 1990 -SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Duration of unemployment Period Unemployment (thousands) Percent distribution Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks Reason for unemployment: percent distribution State programs Number of weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Median Job losers Job Jeavers Reentrants New entrants Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, 'all regular programs (unadjusted) ' Weekly average, thousands 1881 1982 1983 1984 ... 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 . . 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr Mav June Sept Oct Nov Dec ... 1990: Jan 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,237 7,425 (5,701 6,528 41.7 36.4 33.3 39.2 42.1 41.9 43.7 46.0 48.6 30.7 31.0 27.4 28.7 30.2 31.0 29.6 30.0 30.3 13.6 16.0 15.4 12.9 12.3 12.7 12.7 12.0 11.2 14.0 16.6 23.9 19.1 15.4 14.4 14.0 12.1 9.9 13.7 15.6 20.0 18.2 15.6 15.0 14.5 13.5 11.9 6.9 8.7 10.1 7.9 6.8 6.9 6.5 5.9 4.8 51.6 58.7 58.4 51.8 49.8 48.9 48.0 46.1 45.7 11.2 7.9 7.7 9.6 10.6 12.3 13.0 14.7 15.7 25.4 22.3 22.5 25.6 27.1 26.2 26.6 27.0 28.2 11.9 11.1 11.3 13.0 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.2 10.4 3,047 4,061 3,396 2,476 2,611 2,650 2,332 2,056 460 583 438 377 396 378 328 306 3,410 4,594 3,775 2,561 2,693 2,746 2,401 2,125 6,625 6,360 6,198 6,531 6,419 6,569 6,577 6,520 6,604 6,563 6,652 6,658 47.3 50. 1 49.1 47.8 48.0 49.8 47.9 48.3 48.3 48.4 48.8 49.5 30.1 29.6 29.6 30.8 31.2 30.5 29.9 31.0 31.0 30.5 29.8 30.1 11.5 10.3 10.7 10.2 11.1 10.4 12.7 11.7 11.7 11.4 11.5 10.9 11.1 10.0 10.6 11.1 9.7 9.3 9.5 9.0 9.0 9.7 9.8 9.5 12.6 12.3 12.4 12.6 11.9 11.2 11.9 11.4 11.5 11.7 11.6 11.5 5.6 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.8 46.4 45.1 45.7 45.2 43.4 43.0 44.5 46.2 44.9 45.5 46.3 46.3 14.6 15.4 14.5 15.2 17.1 15.fi 15.5 16.1 15.8 15.2 15.7 15.8 27.4 27.7 28.4 29.0 28.7 30.4 29.0 27.6 29.4 28.9 27.6 27.7 11.5 11.9 11.4 10.7 10.8 11.1 11.0 10.0 9.9 10.5 10.4 10.3 2,061 2,105 2,143 2,105 2,063 2,134 2,216 2,177 2,187 2,257 2,287 2,332 293 309 323 300 317 335 339 319 323 360 344 365 2,685 2,695 2,567 2,221 1,957 1,936 2,168 2,007 1,863 1,912 2,144 2,517 6,535 47.5 30.7 11.8 9.9 1,1 5.1 48.5 15.5 26.3 9.7 2,367 359 Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Adminis- 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 275,000 in January. MIL LIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) MILL ONS OF PERSONS* 110 28 r-^ =L_^— 100 r"\ ALLr-JONAGRICU LTURAL — .s-' ^-^1 26 ./'"'' SERVICES E 5TABLISHME ^JTS V- 24 90 — ^ .^* 80 — — _„---• SE (VICE-PROD JCING INDUSTRIE s 70 — RE TAIL TRADE 20 ^M—- 60 - ..~^f~~ 16 iiinliiiiilniiihini iT\\iln\i] |f '" 20 MANUFACTURING 50 40 - — GOODS-PF ODUCING INDU 5TRIES — """""(3OVERNMENT 18 30 — 22 18 X iiimlmiiliiiMlmii V"" miiliiiih\! Illllllllll ' > lllllllHM imilllllllllllllmtik i 6 •f \ c ONSTRUCTIC)N 4 20 Ill 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 | | | 1 1 1 M 1 11 I11 1 1 1 M 1 1iiinliinlj. I 1987 1988 1990 1989 Illllllll1ll f ] ] | | | I I I 1986 " 1986 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 | | | H1 1 1 1 1 1 II 1 1 If 1 1 1 ! 1 1 11 [ 1 1 1988 1987 SEASONALLY ADJ U5TED SOURCE- DEPARTM ENT OF LABOR 1990 1989 COUNCIL OF EC 3NOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers; l seasonally adjusted] Goods-producing industries Period Total nouagricultural ' employment Service-producing industries Manufacturing Total 2 Construction Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade Government Finance, insurance, and real estate Services Total Federal 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 .. 1988 1989 p 91 156 89 566 90 200 94 496 97,519 99 525 102 200 105 584 108 579 25 497 23*8' 3 23 334 24 727 24,859 24 558 24 708 25*249 25 634 4 188 3*905 3 948 4 383 4,673 4 816 4 967 5 195 5 300 20 170 18 781 18 434 19 378 19,260 18 965 19 024 19*403 19 612 19 109 11 039 10 739 11 505 11,490 1 1 930 11 194 11 437 11 537 8 061 7 741 7 70° 7 873 7,770 7 734 7 830 7 967 8 076 65 659 65*753 66 866 69 769 72,660 74 967 77 499 80*335 82 945 5 165 5 089 4 954 5 159 5,238 5 955 5 372 5 548 5 705 5 278 5 268 5 555 5,717 5 753 5 844 6 029 6 234 15 189 15 179 15 613 16 545 17,356 17 930 18 483 19 110 19 574 5 998 5 341 5 468 5 689 5,955 6 283 6 547 6 676 6 814 18 619 19 036 19 694 20 797 22,000 23 053 94 9% 95 600 26 892 16 031 15 837 15 869 16 024 16,394 16 693 17 010 17 379 17 727 2 739 9 774 2 807 2,875 9 899 2 943 2 971 9 988 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr May.... June... July.... Aug.... Sept.... Oct Nov .... Dec ".. 107,442 107,711 107,888 108,101 108,310 108,607 108,767 108,887 109,096 109,171 109,452 109,548 25,626 25,629 25,646 25,671 25,672 25,648 25,669 25,694 25,614 25,603 25,609 25,533 5,267 5,270 5,252 5,279 5,283 5,283 5,314 5,321 5,325 5.335 5,355 5,305 19,648 19,648 19,680 19,672 19,667 19,650 19,649 19,644 19,559 19,537 19,517 19,489 1 1 ,605 11,594 11,604 11,600 | 11,594 11,567 11,549 11,551 11,480 11,457 11,439 11,411 8,043 8,054 8,076 8,072 8,073 8,083 8,100 8,093 8,079 8,080 8,078 8,078 81,816 82,082 82,242 82,430 82,638 82,959 83,098 83,193 83,482 83,568 83,843 84,015 5,654 5,667 5,666 5,682 5,700 5,716 5,736 5,618 5,709 5,729 5,753 5,832 6,146 6,171 6,197 6,206 6,222 6,230 6,237 6,256 6,264 6,278 6.300 6,308 19,407 19,460 19,488 19,489 19,528 19,551 19,586 19,621 19,632 19,679 19,744 19,714 6,746 6,763 6,774 6,776 6,790 6,808 6,815 6,836 6,852 6,851 6,871 6,882 26,318 26,434 26,520 26,651 26,711 26,931 26,973 27,058 27,159 27,188 27,345 27,416 17,545 17,587 17,597 17,626 17,687 17,723 17,751 17,804 17,866 17,843 17,830 17,863 2,978 2,982 2,982 2,982 2,999 2,995 3,000 2,999 2,996 2,984 2,982 2,972 Jan p .. 109,823 25,526 5,409 19,377 11,310 8,067 84,297 5,859 6,332 19,831 6,892 27,522 17,861 2,984 1981 1990: hides ;ill full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricult pay for any part of the pay period which flic-hides the 12th of th 'If-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Am is table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employ hown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed person omit persons as employed when they are not at work because 14 5 358 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statisti 9 772 AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupermory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average gross weekly earnings Average gross hourly earnings Average weekly hours Period 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 p 1989- Jan Feb Mar July Sept Oct Nov Dec " 1990' Jan p Totil private nonagricultural 1 Total private nonagrieultural I Overtime Total Manufacturing Current dollars 1977 dollars 2 Manufacturing Construction " Retail trade Percent change from a year ear er, total private nonagricultural 3 Current dollars 1977 dollars 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 $7.25 7.68 8.02 8.32 8.57 8.76 8.98 9.29 9.66 9.49 9.52 9.54 9.61 9.60 9.62 9.69 9.69 9.74 9.78 9.78 9.83 $7.99 8.49 8.83 9.19 9.54 9.73 9.91 10.18 10.47 10.33 10.37 10.40 10.40 10.42 10.45 10.48 10.52 10.55 10.55 10.57 10.60 $255.20 267.26 280.70 292.86 299.09 304.85 312.50 322.36 335.20 330.25 329.39 331.04 335.39 332.16 332.85 337.21 335.27 337.98 339.37 338.39 339.14 $170.13 168.09 171.26 172.78 170.42 171.07 169.28 167.81 166.52 167.55 166.44 166.44 * 167.44 '165.17 165.10 166.85 r 165.98 '166.74 166.85 165.80 r 165.51 $318.00 330.26 354.08 374.03 386.37 396.01 406.31 418.40 429.27 424.56 426.21 426.40 429.52 427.22 428.45 429.68 431.32 432.55 430.44 430.20 431.42 $399.26 426.82 442.97 458.51 464.46 466.75 480.44 493.08 506.72 496.89 498.39 501.23 505.21 494.17 498.17 511.30 510.73 510.16 514.75 521.87 509.39 $158.03 163.85 171.05 174.33 174.64 176.08 178.70 183.62 189.01 187.40 186.41 186.98 189.44 187.56 188.43 190.97 189.22 189.50 191.69 190.37 190.86 8.5 4.7 5.0 4.3 2.1 1.9 2.5 3.2 4.0 4.2 3.5 4.1 4.5 3.3 3.5 4.2 3.7 3.6 3.5 S.I 3.1 -.7 -2.0 -1.6 -.9 -.9 — .7 -.9 -J.4 '— 1.4 3.6 9.84 10.56 340.46 164.31 429.79 520.65 194.01 2.8 23 35.2 34.8 35.0 35.2 34.9 34.8 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.6 34.7 34.9 34.6 34.6 34.8 34.6 34.7 34.7 34.6 34.5 39.8 38.9 40.1 40.7 40.5 40.7 41.0 41.1 41.0 2.8 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.9 3.8 41.1 41.1 41.0 41.3 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 40.8 40.7 40.7 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 34.6 40.7 3 1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. 2 Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban i workers (on a 1977 = 100 base). Current dollars Total private nonagricultural * Manufacturing iers and clerical -1.5 -1.2 1.9 .9 -1.4 .4 -3.0 -.9 Q -.3 -1.2 Q Based on seasonally unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY [Not seasonally adjusted] Percent eh ange from Index (June 1981 = 100) 12 months earli ir 3 months earlie r compensation 1981: 19821983: 19841985: 19861987: 19881989: 1986: Dee Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec .. Dec Dec . Dec Sept Dec 1987: Mar Sept Dec . 1988- Mar Sept Dec .. 1989- Mar Sept Dec 1 104.0 110 7 117 0 122 7 1275 131 6 1360 142 6 1494 130.8 131 6 132.9 133 8 135.1 136 0 138 1 139 8 141.2 142 6 144.4 146 1 147.9 1494 Wages and salaries 103 8 110 3 115 8 120 6 125 6 129 5 133 8 139 3 145 1 1288 129 5 130 8 131 7 133 0 133 8 135 1 136 6 1379 139 3 1408 142 2 143.9 145 1 Benefits * 104 3 111 7 1200 127 9 1324 1369 141 7 151 3 160 6 136 1 1369 138 1 139 3 1403 141 7 146 1 148 2 149 7 151 3 1540 1565 158 7 160 6 Employer costs for employee benefits. NOTE.—The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free froir the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries. Total compensation 2.0 ' 1 3 1.2 13 .6 6 .7 10 1.0 .7 6 1.0 7 1.0 7 1.5 12 1.0 10 1.3 12 1.2 10 Wages and salaries Benefits ' 1.8 2.3 12 15 1.1 1.3 12 14 .6 5 .6 .5 6 1.0 10 11 8 .7 5 1.0 7 1.0 6 10 1.2 1.0 .6 .9 .9 .7 1.0 3.1 1l 10 10 11 10 12 1.4 8 12 Total compensation Wages and salaries 9.8 6.4 5.7 4.9 3.9 3.2 3.3 49 4.8 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.9 4.5 4.5 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.8 8.8 6.3 5.0 4.1 4.1 3.1 3.3 4.1 4.2 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.7 3.7 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.2 14 1.0 11 1.8 16 Benefits ' 12.2 7.1 7.4 6.6 3,5 3.4 3.5 6.8 6.1 3.3 3.4 2.9 3.3 3.1 3.5 5.8 6.4 6.7 6.8 5.4 5.6 6.0 6.1 Data exclude farm and household workers. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output per hour of all persons Period Output ' Compensation per hour 3 Hours of 2all persons Real compensation per hour 4 i. • ™ ess sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector 1980 1981 1982 1983. 1984 99.4 101.0 100.2 102.6 105.2 99.0 100.0 99.1 102.0 104.2 106.7 108.9 105.5 109.9 119.2 106.7 108.5 104.9 110.1 119.2 107.3 107.9 105.3 107.2 113.3 107.8 108.5 105.9 108.0 114.4 131.8 144.1 154.9 160.8 167.4 131.6 144.0 154.7 160.8 167.2 97.0 96.1 97.3 97.8 97.6 1985 1986 1987 107.3 109.8 111.1 113.0 114.2 105.6 107.7 108.9 111.1 112.1 124.2 128.0 133.4 140.0 144.8 123.9 127.6 133.1 140.3 145.0 115.7 116.6 120.1 123.9 126.8 117.4 118.4 122.2 126.3 129.4 174.8 183.8 191.0 200.2 211.3 174.0 182.9 189.8 198.7 209.6 IV IV IV IV IV IV 100.9 103.5 105.7 108.3 109.8 112.5 99.5 103.0 104.5 106.2 107.6 110.2 105.0 113.6 120.8 125.9 128.9 136.7 104.2 114.1 120.7 125.5 128.4 136.4 104.1 109.7 114.3 116.2 117.4 121.5 104.7 110.8 115.5 118.1 119.3 123.7 158.2 163.2 169.9 178.6 187.4 195.1 1988: I II Ill IV 113.2 112.6 113.4 113.5 111.0 110.5 111.5 112.0 138.2 139.3 140.7 141.9 138.0 139.5 141.1 142.8 122.1 123.8 124.0 125.0 124.3 126.2 126.6 127.5 1989: I II Ill IV P* .. 113.8 114.2 114.7 114.7 111.6 111.9 112.6 112.7 143.6 144.4 145.6 145.6 143.6 144.6 145.9 145.9 126.2 126.4 127.0 126.9 128.6 129.2 129.6 129.5 Bu Nonfarm business sector Unit la )or costs Implic t price defla o r 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 96.7 96.0 97.1 97.8 97.5 132.6 142.7 154.5 156.7 159.1 132.9 144.0 156.1 157.6 160.4 127.6 139.8 148.1 153.0 158.2 127.8 140.3 149.2 154.3 159.0 98.4 101.7 101.9 102.5 103.3 98.0 101.1 101.2 101.8 102.4 162.8 167.5 171.9 177.1 185.0 164.9 169.8 174.2 178.8 187.0 162.2 165.6 170.0 174.9 181.8 163.8 167.6 172.0 176.5 183.4 158.0 162.9 169.6 177.5 186.4 193.8 97.9 97.8 97.8 99.3 102.8 102.5 97.8 97.6 97.6 98.7 102.3 101.8 156.8 157.7 160.7 164.9 170.6 173.5 158.7 158.2 162.3 167.1 173.2 175.8 150.2 155.2 159.8 163.7 167.1 171.3 151.4 156.2 161.0 165.5 169.2 173.4 196.4 199.1 201.9 204.5 195.0 197.5 200.2 203.0 102.3 102.5 102.8 103.0 101.5 101.7 101.9 102.3 173.5 176.9 178.0 180.2 175.7 178.7 179.6 181.3 171.9 174.1 175.8 177.9 173.8 175.6 177.0 179.6 206.9 210.4 212.8 216.2 205.5 208.3 211.0 214.6 102.8 102.9 103.5 104.1 102.1 101.9 102.7 103.4 181.9 184.1 185.6 188.4 184.1 186.1 187.4 190.5 179.4 181.4 182.4 183.9 180.8 182.8 184.0 185.8 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 1977 = 100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 1988 1989 p' 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 1980 1981 1982 1983 -0.3 1.5 ~0.4 1.1 9 3.0 2.1 -1.1 2.1 -3.1 4.2 8.4 -1.2 1.7 -3.3 5.0 8.3 -0.8 .6 -2.4 1.8 5.7 — 0.7 .6 -2.4 2.0 6.0 10.5 9.3 7.5 3.8 4.1 10.5 9.5 7.4 4.0 3.9 -2.6 — .9 1.2 .6 — .2 -2.6 — .7 1.1 .7 — .4 10.9 7.7 8.3 1.4 1.5 11.0 8.3 8.4 1.0 1.8 9.0 9.6 5.9 3.3 3.3 9.7 9.7 6.S 3.5 3.0 4.2 3.1 4.2 4.9 3.4 3.9 3.0 4.4 5.4 3.3 2.2 .8 3.0 3.2 2.3 2.6 .9 3.2 3.4 2.4 4.4 5.2 3.9 4.8 5.5 4.1 5.1 3.7 4.7 5.5 .8 3.3 .2 .6 .7 .5 3.2 .1 .5 .6 2.3 2.8 2.6 3.0 4.4 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.7 4.6 2.5 2.1 2.6 2.9 S.9 3.0 2.3 2.6 2.7 3.9 1984.... 2.4 2.6 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 p* 2.0 2.3 1.2 1.7 1.1 1.3 2.0 1.1 2.0 IV IV IV IV IV IV 2.6 3.3 1.5 1.5 .8 2.8 2.0 1.6 .9 .8 .4 2.5 — .5 10.4 3.5 3.6 4.0 7.1 -1.2 9.8 3.1 3.5 3.7 7.0 -3.0 6.8 2.0 2.1 3.2 4.2 -3.1 8.1 2.2 2.7 3.3 4.3 4.1 5.7 3.5 6.3 5.1 7.2 4.6 4.4 3.5 5.8 5.1 7.1 2.8 1.6 .0 2.1 2.2 3.4 3.3 .3 .0 1.6 2.2 3.4 1.5 2.3 2.0 4.8 4.2 4.3 2.6 2.8 2.6 5.0 4.7 4.5 2.4 4.8 2.7 2.6 1.0 1.4 3.0 3.1 3.3 2.1 1.0 1.7 1988: I II Ill IV 2.5 — 2.1 3.1 .2 2.8 -1.6 3.3 1.9 4.4 3.3 4.0 3.4 4.8 4.4 4.6 4.8 1.9 5.5 .9 3.2 2.0 6.1 1.2 2.8 2.6 5.7 5.8 5.2 2.5 5.4 5.4 5.9 -1.0 1.1 1.0 .7 — 1.1 .8 .7 1.4 .1 8.0 2.6 5.0 -.3 7.1 2.0 3.8 1.5 5.1 4.1 4.8 1.0 4.3 3.2 5.9 1.1 1.6 1.5 ^2 -1.3 1.1 2.4 .2 4.8 2.3 3.5 .0 2.4 2.8 3.7 _.2 3.7 .6 1.9 3.7 1.7 1.3 — .4 4.8 6.8 4.7 6.5 4.9 5.6 5.3 6.9 -.6 _4 2.3 2.4 — .5 — .7 2.8 2.8 3.7 5.1 3.2 6.3 6.2 4.5 2.8 6.7 3.3 4.6 2.2 3.3 2.8 4.4 2.7 3.9 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1989: I II Ill IV "' .. Q 9 benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self 16 NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Beginning with data released August 3, 1989, hours of labor input are defined as hours at the work site rather than hours paid. ' Data do not reflect GNP revisions of February 28, 1990. Source-. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production and capacity utilization fell in January. INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) INDE X, 1977 = 100* (RATIO SCALE) 160 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 240 220 ' — — •« 140 _--^ r~ v— ~--^ V. 180 120 imilimi 100 160 iiiiiiiiin miiliini BUSINESS EQUIPMENT -.^ ^^ 160 IIIIlllIIII IllllllllII ^^CJ •^iZ^—/~' — ^ •'•"--' DURABLE 100 imilum Illlltlltll IIIIlllIIII IllllllllII IllllllllII 100 itmlmn IllllllllII Illllllllllllllltllllll IllllllllII PERCENT* 100 CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE (TOTAL INDUSTRY) 90 UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION 120 CONSUM =0 GOODS 120 120 100 ^ —^ 140 MANUFACTURING PRODUCTIC NONDURABLE -L*f*^ 140 HFFFM^F AND SPACE FOIMPMFNT 200 —1r^-^ •> FINAL PRODUCTS » uFILITIES vn..V'-" mntiim IllllllllII 1986 1987 -NvX A-' ' - • ^ «.-**" 80 =>*- •. -~"1 70 MINING IllllllllII IllllllllII ll|ll||||ll 1989 1990 1988 IllllllllII IllllllllII IllllllllII IllllllllII IllllllllII 1989 1987 1990 1986 1988 "SEASONAf.IV ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Total industrial production Period Index, 1977 = 100 Industry production indexes, 1977 = 100 Capacity utilization rate, percent l Manufacturing Percent change from year earlier Mining Total Durable Utilities Nondurable Total industry Manufacturing 1977 proportion 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 100.0 108.6 111.0 103.1 109.2 121.4 123.7 125.1 129.8 137.2 141.8 -1.9 2.2 7 -[ 5^9 11.2 1.9 1.1 3.8 5.7 3.4 84.31 108.2 110.5 102.2 110.2 123.4 126.4 129.1 134.7 142.7 148.2 49.10 109.1 111.1 99.9 107.7 124.2 127.6 128.4 133.1 141.9 ' 146.5 35. 11 107.0 109.7 105.5 113.7 122.3 124.6 130.1 136.8 143.9 150.5 9.83 112.4 117.5 109.3 102.9 11). 1 108.9 100.4 100.7 103.4 102.6 .5.96 107.3 107.1 104.8 105.2 110.7 111.1 108.5 110.3 114.3 115.9 80.9 79.9 72.1 74.6 81.0 80.4 79.4 80.7 83.3 83.7 79.3 78.2 70.3 73.9 80.5 80.1 79.7 81.1 83.5 r 83.9 1989: 140.8 140.5 140.7 141.7 141.6 142.0 141.9 142.5 142.3 141.8 142.2 142.5 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.7 4.1 4.0 2.8 2.9 2.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 147.2 146.8 147.0 148.0 148.1 148.7 148.5 149.2 148.8 148.0 148.5 148.6 146.2 145.9 145.8 146.9 147.1 147.4 146.8 147.8 147.2 144.9 145.5 145.9 148.5 148.1 148.6 149.6 149.5 150.5 150.8 151.1 151.1 152.4 152.7 152.4 103.0 100.9 101.5 102.4 102.0 101.5 102.1 102.4 103.5 104.4 104.5 102.4 114.0 116.5 117.5 117.1 115.6 1 14.3 114.0 113.3 114.5 115.6 115.5 122.8 84.3 83.9 83.8 84.2 84.0 84.0 83.7 83.9 83.6 83.1 83.1 83.1 84.7 84.3 84.1 84.5 84.3 84.4 84.0 84.2 83.7 83.1 83.1 82.9 140.9 .1 147.2 143.3 152.7 104.6 109.6 81.9 81.9 Jan Feb Mar Apr May July Aug Sept Oct r Nov r Dec r 1990: J a n " iors c.l tlic Frd.-ral 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1977=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Materials Products Final products Intermediate products Consumer goods Equipment Period Total Total 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 ' .... ... 1989- Jan Feb Mar Mav July Sept Oct ' . Nov ' Dec '. 1990-. Jan p . 1 Durable goods Nondurable goods Total > Business Defense and space equipment Total Construction supplies Business supplies Total Energy 44.77 112.2 115.2 109 5 114.7 127 3 131.0 132.5 136.8 144 3 150.2 23.52 102.7 104.1 101.4 109.3 118.0 119.8 124.0 127.8 133.9 139.5 6.89 88.4 89.7 82.9 98.5 112.2 112.5 115.6 120.2 125.3 129.6 18.63 108.1 109.3 108.3 113.3 120.1 122.5 127.1 130.6 137.1 143.2 19.25 124.7 129.9 120.2 121.7 139.6 145.8 143.6 148.9 158.2 164.3 14.34 125.1 127.6 113.6 115.4 134.2 140.2 139.5 144.5 157.6 167.6 3.67 115.4 119.8 133.0 143.1 156.4 171.4 182.0 188.9 185.8 179.8 12.94 106.9 107.3 101.7 111.2 124.7 129.3 136.2 143.4 151.5 157.4 5.95 100.6 98.6 88.3 100.6 114.0 119.2 126.4 131.5 138.6 141.5 6.99 112.3 114.7 113.1 120.3 133.8 137.9 144.6 153.5 162.5 171.0 42.28 105.3 107.7 96.7 102.8 114.2 114.3 113.8 118.2 125.2 128.1 11.69 105.5 104.7 101.2 98.4 103.9 103.3 99.7 99.8 101.5 100.6 148.2 148.6 148.9 150.2 150.4 151.2 150.2 151.1 150.8 149.4 150.2 151 5 138.5 138.7 138.4 139.5 139.2 139.9 138.7 139.3 139.0 140.2 140.5 141.4 131.5 131.6 130.1 132.2 131.2 130.8 127.3 128.7 127.9 127.9 127.4 128.5 141.1 141.4 141.4 142.2 142.1 143.3 142.8 143.2 143.1 144.7 145.3 146.1 161.1 161.6 162.8 164.3 165.4 166.1 165.5 166.8 166.5 161.7 163.2 164.9 163.8 165.0 166.3 167.8 169.1 169.6 168.5 169.9 169.6 164.8 166.6 168.8 180.0 179.3 178.7 179.9 180.7 181.1 182.0 182.7 182.1 176.0 176.6 177.7 156.6 155.1 156.1 156.5 156.3 157.0 157.5 157.5 157.8 158.6 159.5 160.3 142.3 139.5 139.3 140.2 140.2 141.2 142.2 141.5 140.9 142.6 143.9 143.7 168.8 168.4 170.4 170.4 170.0 170.4 170.6 171.2 172.3 172.3 172.8 174.4 128.1 127.4 127.3 128.2 127.9 127.7 128.3 128.8 128.6 128.7 128.4 127.6 100.5 100.5 101.0 101.7 101.1 99.1 99.1 99.5 100.9 101.7 101.9 101.7 148.8 138.2 119.7 145.1 162.9 165.9 m.i 159.9 144.0 126.6 100.0 Includes oil and gas well drilling and manufactured homes, not shown separately. [1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Nondurable manufactures Durable manufactures Transportation equipment Frimarv metals Period Total 1980 1981 1982 1983. 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 .. r 1989: Jan Feb Mar . Mav July Oct r... Nov ' Dec '. 1990- Jan " Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 Iron and steel Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery Total Motor vehicles and parts Lumber and products Apparcl products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Foods 5.33 90.4 95.0 65.8 73.0 82.3 80.4 75.1 81.3 89 2 88.5 3.49 86.3 92.5 57.5 66.1 73.4 70.4 63.4 70.6 78.1 75.5 6.46 101.8 101.6 86.6 89.1 102.6 107.1 108.0 111.0 120.9 124.6 9.54 123.3 129.8 115.6 118.3 141.8 146.2 145.0 152.7 170.8 185.4 7.15 130.3 134.1 128.4 143.8 170.5 168.3 165.7 172.3 180.1 181.8 9.13 96.9 95.1 87.6 99.2 112.2 122.8 127.5 129.2 132.1 132.5 5.25 71.1 71.6 66.8 85.8 104.4 111.9 111.5 111.8 117.2 116.5 2.30 92.9 90.1 82.8 100.2 109.1 114.3 124.1 130.3 137.3 136.8 2.79 97.3 96.1 87.3 95.3 102.7 100.4 103.1 107.4 109.1 110.7 4.54 115.1 118.6 120.2 129.8 146.5 151.4 160.9 172.1 184.2 201.1 8.05 106.4 112.6 103.8 114.0 121.6 126.4 132.0 140.2 151.9 160.2 7.96 111.4 113.7 114.9 120.4 126.9 130.5 134.4 137.8 142.7 148.2 93.2 91.1 88 4 90.1 87.2 87 3 89.2 90.3 89.2 89.0 85.1 83.0 82.2 79.1 75.9 77.0 73.2 12.9 75.4 75.9 75.4 76.4 72.0 70.2 124.5 124.5 123.8 123.1 124.8 125.2 125.4 125.5 124.4 124.1 125.4 124.7 178.7 180.8 183.0 184.7 186.5 181.5 186.7 187.8 188.2 184.1 187.5 188.2 180.9 181.7 181.6 182.2 181.6 181.9 181.4 183.7 182.7 182.2 181.3 180.9 136.7 136.4 134.8 136.4 135.5 134.2 131.3 133.2 131.9 123.9 125.1 128.6 124.9 123.4 120.4 122.0 119.7 116.4 110.4 114.2 112.7 110.1 110.4 110.7 139.9 132.8 133.4 135.1 135.5 137.2 136.9 136.5 135.7 137.4 138.9 139.0 110.2 110.2 109.9 111.3 111.5 111.9 111.4 111.1 111.2 110.0 109.3 108.2 193.0 194.6 198.5 200.1 199.0 200.5 199.9 200.6 203.1 204.8 206.8 207.7 159.0 158.5 159.2 159.3 158.2 159.9 162.2 161.5 159.3 161.3 162.1 161.6 146.6 146.3 145.4 146.6 147.2 141.9 147.3 148.3 148.8 150.3 151.6 151.7 123.4 186.6 181.9 115.1 87.0 84.8 209.0 NEW CONSTRUCTION [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Construction contracts 3 Private Period Total new construction expenditures Residential Total New housing units Total > Commercial and industrial 2 Other Federal, State, and loea! Total value index (1982=100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) Billions of dollars 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 ' 252.8 261.3 248.0 282.4 329.6 356.6 387.0 397.7 409.7 414.7 194.3 204.7 194.3 228.7 271.9 292.6 315.3 320.1 328.7 330.4 100.4 99.2 84.7 125.5 153.8 158.5 187.1 194.7 198.1 195.7 423.0 416.6 416.8 411.9 416.5 412.5 410.3 416.3 416.2 414.6 416.9 416.6 337.7 333.2 338.1 332.5 330.6 329.0 328.8 331.9 329.6 329.8 328.0 321.7 333. 1 202.9 200.5 202.1 200.7 197.0 194.2 195.2 194.4 192.8 193.1 191.1 190.2 69.6 69.4 57.0 94.6 113.8 114.7 133.2 139.9 138.9 137.8 46.7 55.0 58.7 53.8 68.6 82.7 78.0 76.5 79.8 81.9 47.2 50.5 50.9 49.3 49.4 51.4 50.2 48.9 50.8 52.9 58.5 56.5 53.7 53.8 57.7 64.1 71.7 77.6 80.9 84.3 97 100 100 124 136 150 159 165 166 166 82.5 81.1 84.2 79.3 80.1 81.6 80.9 83.3 83.2 84.0 83.5 78.9 83.4 52.2 51.6 51.8 52.5 53.5 53.2 52.7 54.2 53.6 52.7 53.3 52.5 53.9 85.3 83.4 78.7 79.4 85.9 83.5 81.5 84.4 86.6 84.8 88.9 94.9 90.9 172 160 158 175 165 166 168 168 181 173 158 160 154 Annual rates Annual rates 1989- Jan Feb Mar July Sept Oct Dec r 1990- Jan p 424.0 195.8 1 Includes residential improvi ients, not shown separately. 2 Includes hotels and motels. 3 F.W. Dodge series. 904 919 690 756 955 1,097 1,016 1,019 973 926 145.6 145.3 143.2 141.8 138.2 136.5 136.6 135.8 134.0 133.9 135.1 135.0 138.3 r r 914 872 870 864 r 909 r 916 r 915 r 805 ' 1,008 r 892 r 812 '805 r r 883 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New private homes New private housing units Period 1980 1981 1982. 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Units started, by type of structure Total 1 unit 1,292.2 1,084.2 1,062.2 1,703.0 1,749.5 1,741.8 1,805.4 1,620.5 1,488.1 r 1,374.4 852.2 705.4 662.6 1,067.6 1,084.2 1,072.4 1,179.4 1,146.4 1,081.3 ' 1,001. 7 2-4 units 109.5 91.1 80.0 113.5 121.4 93.4 84.0 65.3 58.8 r 55.5 5 or more units 330.5 287.7 319.6 522.0 544.0 576.1 542.0 408.7 348.0 r 317.3 Units authorized 1,190.6 985.5 1,000.5 1,605.2 1,631.8 1,733.3 1,769.4 1,534.8 1,455.6 1,340.6 Units completed Homes sold Homes for sale at end of period l 1,501.6 1,265.7 1,005.5 1,390.3 1,652.2 1,703.3 1,756.4 1,668.8 1,529.8 1,421.6 545 436 412 623 639 688 750 671 676 650 337 275 253 301 353 346 357 r 366 r 367 r 361 1,537 1,610 1,459 1,552 1,442 1,355 1,372 1,439 1,368 ' 1,317 ' 1,479 1,290 '704 r 623 r o56 r 610 r 651 r 646 r 741 r 719 r 638 r 636 r 692 r 634 369 375 377 '376 r ,379 r 376 369 364 364 r 363 363 r 361 589 365 for rental housing units (percent) 2 5.4 5.0 5.3 5.7 5.9 6.5 7.3 7.7 7.7 Seasonally adjusted annu al rates 1989: Jan Feb Mar May July Sept Oct Nov Dec 1990- Jan " 1 r 1,188 ' 1,026 '979 r 1,028 977 r 971 r 1,029 r 987 r 969 1,023 * 1,010 r 911 66 60 r 51 62 r 43 55 r 58 r 54 r 56 60 47 '55 405 368 375 r 251 r 288 '388 337 r 284 r 238 340 '290 288 1,486 1,403 1,230 1,334 1,347 1,308 1,281 1,328 1,319 1,356 1,342 1,376 1,625 1,137 54 434 1,745 r Seasonally adjusted. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1989 not comparable with earlier data. NOTE.—Beginning 1984, units authorized are for 17,000 permit-issuing places; for 1978-83 data 2 r ' 1,659 ' 1,454 r 1,405 T 1,341 1,308 ' 1,414 r 1,424 ' 1,325 r l,263 1,423 r 1,347 r 1,254 r r 7.2 7.1 7.2 6.8 are for 16,000 places. Seasonally adjusted housing starts and new homes sold and for sale revised beginning 1987. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade In December, manufacturing and trade sales fell 0.1 percent and inventories fell $2.6 billion. In January, according to advance data, retail sales rose 1.6 percent, following a decline of 0.2 percent in December. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 800 240 ,-^- - -r-<1 700 • - TRADE INVENTORIES -_^-- . ,._- ^\r~~^\ ~ - 1 RETAIL INVE NTORIES sX^ - 180 600 --'" ^~s ~ 200 ^MANUFACTURING AND 500 — 220 — - 160 - --- \ MANUFAC TURING AND TRAD E SALES - 400 1 --- — 140 A /' 120 -.-"-'• - RETAIL SA .ES - - - 100 iiiiilniii 300 Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll )* RATIC 1.80 _ INVENTORY-SALES RATIO - - ^ ^ N ^2/1 1 200 - RETAIL - ^v-A^- - "~ MANUFACTURING - AND TRADE 1.20 miiimti |llllllll|| iiiiilniii ninlinii 1987 1986 1989 1988 IIMllllIII 1990 iiin!iiiii J.OO , iiiiilniii 1989 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Manufacturing and trade 1 Wholesale 1990 Inventories 3 Sales 2 574,491 590,358 644,306 655,066 653,853 700,761 r 753,299 794,405 96,290 100,244 113,195 114,315 115,677 123,581 132,361 142,266 Inventories 3 Inventorv-sales ratio 4 Retail Sales Sales Illllllllll COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Period 2 lllllllllM 1988 1987 1986 Total 2 Durable goods stores Inventories Nondurable goods stores 3 Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores 61,093 64,754 68,985 72,434 74,802 79,077 83,384 88,533 134,468 147,377 167,159 180,825 185,224 206,981 r 220,510 237,030 61,469 68,984 79,257 88,608 90,477 106,271 114,248 119,387 72,999 78,393 87,902 92,217 94,747 100,710 r 106, 262 117,643 Manufacturing and trade * Retail Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 ".. 348,747 368,813 407,869 418,151 423,700 449,536 485,756 516,646 .. 1988: Dec r 1989: Jan.. Feb Mar.. May . June Julv. Sept. Oct Novr Dec " 2 3 28,013 32,574 37,819 41,387 44.861 47,707 52,379 54,056 r 1.67 1.56 1.53 1.55 1.55 1.51 1.50 1.51 1.49 1.44 1.49 1.53 1.56 1.56 1.57 1.62 507,081 753,299 136,898 178,626 139,356 54,448 84,908 220,510 114,248 106,262 1.49 1.58 759,803 763,051 765,504 771,340 778,093 780,802 787,584 790,368 790,572 793,157 797,046 794,405 140,356 139,547 139,991 142,290 142,474 141,959 141,667 143,280 143,905 144,554 145,076 146,711 179,761 " 139,970 179,810 139,428 179,681 139,516 181,226 141,413 182,615 142,543 182,548 142,500 183,950 143,555 183,529 144,860 182,891 145,293 143,426 186,119 186,987 144,387 186,698 r 144,058 * 53 ,607 53,071 52,886 53,901 54,139 54,016 54,653 55,876 55,861 53,980 54,067 r 52,924 * 86,363 86,357 86,630 87,512 88,404 88,484 88,902 88,984 89,432 89,446 90,320 r 91,134 222,584 224,185 224,693 226,656 230,423 231,762 232,831 235,350 236,791 235,326 237,246 237,030 115,704 116,169 115,993 117,093 118,835 119,542 119,864 121,782 123,030 120,422 120,830 119,387 106,880 108,016 108,700 109,563 111,538 112,220 112,967 113,568 113,761 114,904 116,416 117,643 1.48 1.50 1.51 1.49 1.50 1.51 1.54 1.50 1.51 1.53 1.53 1.52 1.59 1.61 1.61 1.60 1.62 1.63 1.62 1,62 1.63 1.64 1.64 1.65 146,392 54,999 91,393 See page 21 for manufacturing. Monthly average (or year and total for month. End of period. 20 89,107 97,328 106,805 113,821 119,663 126,785 135,763 142,588 511,811 507,328 507,555 517,745 518,088 515,695 511,144 526,290 522,760 519,975 522,289 521,956 r 1990: Jan" 1 128,196 130,334 142,380 146,745 152,447 162,648 r 178,626 186,698 4 Annual data are averages of monthly ratios. Source; Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In December, manufacturers' shipments and inventories fell while new and unfilled orders rose. In January, according to advance data, durable goods shipments and new orders fell. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 280 480 440 - INVENTORIES 400 360 240 -SHIPMEN TS 200 TOTAL 160 r^~T~~~ 1 —-i V ' •»>. 120 ^—--«.* 280 V ..— /•-— 200 s..^.s-' _--~J 80 DURABLE GOODS 160 1ABLE GOOC 120 60 iimlimi imihmi mimmi iinilmii BILLIONS OF DOLLARS1* (RATIO SCALE) NONDURABLE GOODS 80 60 ZBO NEW ORDERS 240 200 «^-~~—ir-~/S"~' ~ •~" r TOTAL v " • r RATIO * 2.20 160 120 W-S* —_ „ 80 -— *' ^* ^ ^' ' -• —• "" • \ N"NDI JRABLE GOC r>s 1.80 1.40 1986 llliiliini 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1987 1989 1988 1990 1.20 A r~" 1.60 60 1 1 1 1 ! 11 1 1 ! t INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO 2.00 -iv..-.V—1 ^ 1 1 t t 111 1 t 1 1 1 1 1 I 1t I 1 f f 1 1986 1 1 1111 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 111 11 1 1 1 1 1987 1989 1988 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1990 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturers' shipments * Manufacturers' inventories 2 Manufacturers' new orders l Durable goods Period Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Durable goods Total Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, nondefense Nondurable goods hirers' unfilled orders 2 Manufacturers' inventory — shipments ratio 3 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 r 1989- Jan Feb Mar Apr July Oct Nov Dec T 1990- Jan p 1 2 163,350 171,242 187,869 190,016 188,360 199,170 217,632 231,793 79,352 84,956 96,623 99,019 99,989 105,291 115,684 122,679 231,485 228,353 228,048 234,042 233,071 231,236 225,922 238,150 233,562 231,995 232,826 231,187 123,578 120,924 120,432 123,331 122,962 121,720 117,114 128,347 124,393 121,840 123,209 122,210 83,998 86,286 91,246 90,996 88,371 93,879 101,948 109,113 107,907 107,429 107,616 110,711 110,109 109,516 108,808 109,803 109,169 110,155 109,617 108,977 311,827 312,647 334,767 327,496 316,182 331,132 354,163 370,677 200,825 200,406 218,771 214,066 208,313 216,598 233,666 245,867 111,002 112,241 115,996 113,430 107,869 114,534 120,497 124,810 162,273 174,122 189,791 190,918 188,663 201,966 221,627 235,635 78,338 87,600 98,581 99,843 100,166 107,770 119,634 126,568 21,661 22,098 26,243 27,067 26,551 29,707 35,028 38,821 83,935 86,522 91,209 91,075 88,497 94,197 101,993 109,067 314,270 349,419 372,586 383,181 387,065 421,243 468,860 514,601 1.95 1.80 1.74 1.74 1.70 1.62 1.58 1.58 357,458 359,056 361,130 363,458 365,055 366,492 370,803 371,489 370,890 371,712 372,813 370,677 236,810 238,165 239,330 240,486 241,689 242,295 245,813 246,378 245,621 246,427 247,610 245,867 120,648 120,891 121,800 122,972 123,366 124,197 124,990 125,111 125,269 125,285 125,203 124,810 236,075 231,306 233,011 239,907 233,753 235,157 230,447 236,793 234,354 234,067 239,710 241,038 128,479 124,107 125,377 129,372 123,524 125,137 122,031 126,766 125,227 124,262 130,175 131,954 40,352 37,189 38,137 40,389 37,290 39,146 41,445 37,130 35,341 35,975 38,901 44,426 107,596 107,199 107,634 110,535 110,229 110,020 108,416 110,027 109,127 109,805 109,535 109,084 473,450 476,403 481,366 487,231 487,913 491,834 496,359 495,002 495,794 497,866 504,750 514,601 1.54 1.57 1.58 1.55 1.57 1.58 1.64 1.56 1.59 1.60 1.60 1.60 118,159 38,321 117,677 Monthly average (or year and total for mouth. Shipments are the same as sales. End o{ period. 3 Annual data are averages of monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In January, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 1.8 percent. Prices of finished consumer foods rose 2.1 percent, and prices of other finished consumer goods rose 2.6 percent. Capital equipment prices rose 0.2 percent. (Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1985.) INDEX, 1982 =100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1982 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) 130 130 FINISHED GOODS PRICES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ~~ i 11 ZU 9(V 120 ^ "'' ' ' «.--' CONSUMER FOODS ,—$ _ ,-\7 CAPITAL EQUIPMENT . 3 . ,'- \"'~~- .' ,' » /^^/»rrf „ / 100 Js^ *~jr^f ***^^ -*- % % / J "^* VxX- \ *• ' „ f V J ^s^^f -^\ TOTAL /- \ • * 110 ^ ' _-^--*^^"™*^ t ^ » / S^ /^ -S£7*Jl'~ ^^ .•^ ^-^ •t—<**/*" +~"""' i •4 -—'"" ^..,' — 7^' * / -'' 1/ t\ i" r-S ^ _X* 100 \t " V v \ ••* '*\ CONSUMER 3OODS EXCLUDING :OODS — — 90 Illlllillll 1982 Illlllillll iiiniiiiii Illlllillll Illlllillll 1984 1985 1986 1983 Illlllillll M l l l l l l l H 1987 Illlllllltl Illlllillll 1989 1990 1988 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 90 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1982=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Finished goods Nondurable Capital equipment Total finished consumer goods 85.1 95.8 100.0 100.5 101.1 101.7 93.3 94.9 97.3 103.8 100.3 101.4 102.0 104.4 105.5 105.6 104.3 102.7 104.5 105.1 104.3 105.4 109.5 85.8 94.6 100.0 102.8 105.2 107.5 109.7 111.7 114.3 118.7 116.8 117.3 117.5 117.4 118.1 118.8 118.9 119.3 120.1 119.8 120.3 120.6 120.9 88.6 96.6 100.0 101.3 103.3 103.8 101.4 103.6 106.2 112.1 109.6 110.5 111.0 111.9 112.9 112.8 112.1 111.6 112.5 113.3 113.3 114.1 116.9 Finished goods excluding consumer foods Period Total finished goods Consumer foods Consumer goods Total Total 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 -.... 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 » 1989: Jan r.... Feb ' Mar ''.., Apr ' May r... June T July T.. Aug r Sept '.. Oct r Nov r.. Dec r 1990- Jan 1 88.0 96.1 100.0 101.6 103.7 104.7 103.2 105.4 108.0 113.5 111.2 111.9 112.4 113.1 113.9 114.0 113.6 113.3 114.1 114.7 114.8 115.5 117.6 92.4 97.8 100.0 101.0 105.4 104.6 107.3 109.5 112.6 118.7 117.0 117.9 118.6 118.0 118.6 117.9 118.1 118.5 118.1 119.7 120.8 121.5 124.0 86.7 95.6 100.0 101.8 103.2 104.6 101.9 104.0 106.5 111.8 109.2 110.0 110.4 111.4 112.4 112.7 112.1 111.5 112.8 113.0 112.8 113.5 115.5 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1985. 22 87.1 96.1 100.0 101.2 102.2 103.3 98.5 100.7 103.1 108.9 106.0 106.9 107.3 109.0 110.0 110.2 109.2 108.2 109.7 110.1 109.6 110.5 113.4 Durable 91.0 96.4 100.0 102.8 104.5 106.5 108.9 111.5 113.8 117.6 116.1 116.7 116.8 116.4 117.2 117.7 117.4 117.8 118.7 118.7 118.7 119.3 118.9 Intermediate materials Crude materials Foods Foodstuffs Total and 1 Other 105.5 104.6 100.0 103.6 105.7 97.3 96.2 99.2 109.5 113.8 115.5 115.4 116.7 115.4 113.8 111.6 113.2 112.8 112.7 112.6 113.5 113.0 113.3 89.4 98.2 100.0 100.5 103.0 103.0 99.3 101.7 106.9 111.9 110.5 111.0 111.6 112.3 112.5 112.4 112.0 111.8 112.2 112.4 112.3 112.3 113.6 Total 90.3 98.6 100.0 100.6 103.1 102.7 99.1 101.5 107.1 112.0 110.8 111.2 111.9 112.5 112.6 112.3 112.1 111.8 112.2 112.4 112.4 112.3 113.6 and Other feedstuffs feeds iource: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 95.3 103.0 100.0 101.3 103.5 95.8 87.7 93.7 96.0 103.0 101.9 101.8 103.5 104.5 104.5 103.3 103.5 101.1 102.3 102.3 103.0 104.6 107.1 104.6 103.9 100.0 101.8 104.7 94.8 93.2 96.2 106.1 111.1 113.7 112.6 114.8 112.1 110.8 109.6 108.9 109.7 109.0 108.4 110.9 113.7 114.8 84.6 101.8 100.0 100.7 102.2 96.9 81.6 87.9 85.5 93.4 90.1 90.7 92.0 95.1 95.9 94.7 95.5 91.3 93.6 94.0 93.5 94.3 97.6 CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In January, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 1.1 percent, seasonally adjusted (1.0 percent not seasonally adjusted). The index was 5.2 percent above its year-earlier level. (Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1985.) INDE)(, 1982-84= 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1982-84= 100 (RATIO S CALE) 130 130 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ^^^ 120 CONSUMER PRICES— ALL ITEMS ^^ \ \_^^- 110 120 110 ^~-^~ ^^ 100 100 _^"^ ^~ 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 nmlitui mnlum \\\\\\\\\\\ 1983 1982 mnliim nmlinii niiiliini nnilimi iliiilnni iiinl|iiii 1985 1984 1987 1986 1988 1989 SEE NOTE ON TABLE 8 BLOW SOURCE: DEPARTMEN OF LABOR COUNCIL OF CONOMIC ADVfSERS [1982-84=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] 1 Housing Transportation All items > 60 1990 T [ All Shelter Period Hel. imp.3 1980... 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1989: Jan * Feb r Mar r Apr * May rr June r . Julv Aug '.r SeptT Oct . Nov r. Dec r 1990: Jan Not seasonally adjusted (NSA) Seasonally adjusted Food Total 1 Total Renters' costs (Dec. 1982 = 100; 100.0 82.4 90.9 96.5 99.6 103 9 107.6 109 6 113.6 118.3 124.0 Homeowners' costs (Dec. 1982 = 100) 16.3 86.8 93.6 97.4 99.4 103.2 105.6 109.0 113.5 118.2 125.1 42.0 81.1 90.4 96.9 99.5 103.6 107.7 110.9 114.2 118.5 123.0 27.9 81.0 90.5 96.9 99.1 104.0 109.8 115.8 121.3 127.1 132.8 103.0 108.6 115.4 121.9 128.1 133.6 138.9 102.5 107.3 1131 119.4 124.8 131.1 137.3 134.4 134.7 135.2 7.9 19.8 Maintenance and repairs (NSA) 0.2 82.4 90.7 Fuel and other utilities 7.5 75.4 86.4 94.9 100.2 Apparel and upkeep 6.1 90.9 95.3 MediTotal > 17.1 83.1 93.2 97.0 99.3 103.7 106 4 102.3 105.4 108.7 114.1 New cars 93.7 97.4 99.9 102.8 106.1 110.6 114.6 116.9 119.2 48.4 80.6 88.3 95.1 100.0 105.0 109.0 112.7 117.0 121.9 127.3 81.3 83.0 84.1 93.4 95.3 94.6 92.9 88.4 87.1 88.4 86.8 86.3 144.0 145.0 145.9 146.7 147.6 148.7 149.6 150.8 151.9 153.0 154.2 155.1 90.2 90.9 91.6 96.2 97.0 96.4 95.9 93.8 93.2 94.1 93.8 94.1 125.3 125.8 126.2 126.6 127.1 127.4 127.7 127.8 128.3 128.8 129.3 129.7 93.4 156.1 98.9 130.4 106.8 106.7 106.9 107.3 107.5 107.3 107.8 107.8 108.0 108.1 108.7 109.4 117.6 117.7 118.8 119.3 119.5 118.9 118.3 116.9 118.6 119.4 119.4 119.0 111.3 112.1 112.6 115.1 1 15.8 115.7 115.3 114.2 113.9 1 14.5 114.6 115.0 118.8 119.1 119.5 119.5 1 19.5 119.3 118.8 118.5 118.1 118.8 119.8 120.8 111.6 119.0 117.4 121.6 121.0 121.2 121.6 121.8 122.2 122.6 123.3 123.5 123.7 124.2 124.7 125.2 129.8 130.3 131.0 131.1 131.7 132.3 133.2 133.5 133.7 134.4 135.0 135.6 135.3 136.2 137.6 137.1 137.4 138.0 139.6 139.1 138.7 139.8 140.5 141.0 135.6 136.3 136.9 137.6 138.2 138.7 139.4 140.0 140.6 116.1 117.1 117.1 117.3 117.4 118.3 118.4 118.5 118.6 118.6 119.3 119.5 127.4 127.7 130.5 126.1 136.3 142.3 141.1 120.4 gy 86.0 97.7 99.2 99.9 100.9 101.6 88.2 88.6 89.3 94.3 104.8 106.5 104.1 103.0 104.4 107.8 122.2 122.7 123.5 124.2 124.9 125.2 125.6 125.9 126.3 126.8 127.4 128.0 Ener2 6.2 74.9 82.9 92.5 100.B 106.8 113.5 122.0 130.1 138.6 149.3 97.8 100.2 102.1 105 0 105.9 110.6 115.4 118.6 121.4 121.9 122.5 123.3 123.8 124.1 124.5 124.5 124.8 125.4 125.8 126.3 cal care 97.4 108.5 102.8 99.4 97.9 98.7 77.1 80.2 80.9 88.5 4.2 88.4 96.4 99.9 103.7 106.5 107.9 111.8 114.7 118.0 121.1 121.6 122.3 123.1 123.8 124.1 124.4 124.6 125.0 125.6 125.9 126.1 Motor fuel items less food, shelter, and energy 3.2 7.4 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Period Change from preceding period Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate Consumer goods Consumer goods Consumer goods Total finished goods Poods Capital equipment Excluding- foods Total finished goods Excluding foods Foods Capital equipment Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA 11.8 7.1 3.6 .6 1.7 1.8 -2.3 2.2 4.0 4.8 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989* 14.1 8.6 4.2 -.9 .8 2.1 -6.6 4.1 3.1 5.3 7.5 1.5 2.0 2.3 3.5 .6 2.8 -.2 5.7 5.0 13.4 9.2 4.1 1.6 2.1 1.0 -1.4 2.1 2.5 5.1 11.4 9.2 3.9 2.0 1.8 2.7 2.1 1.3 3.6 3.7 Change, month to month 1989' Jan 1.1 .6 .4 .6 .7 .1 -.4 -.3 .7 .5 .1 .6 1.8 Feb Mar May 1990: July T Aug * Sept r Oct ''. Nov * Dec r. Jan 1.1 .8 .4 1.6 .9 .2 -.9 -.9 1.4 .4 — .5 .8 2.6 1.3 .8 .6 — .5 .5 -.6 .2 .3 -.3 1.4 .9 .6 2.1 7.1 8.3 9.0 7.0 7.3 5.8 1.8 -2.1 0.5 .4 .2 -.1 .6 .6 .1 .S .1 2 .4 .2 .2 8.3 9.9 9.9 11.8 12.1 11.3 .7 -6.4 -1.8 3.3 5.3 2.9 12.5 7.9 9.3 11.2 3.5 2.4 -2.3 .3 -.3 .7 5.5 8.0 12.0 15.2 3.9 5.4 5.0 10.5 NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1985. 5.6 6.2 6.1 7.1 7.8 7.4 4.4 2.5 3.0 2.8 1.6 2.6 7.2 4.2 5.3 4.6 2.1 2.8 4.5 5.2 4.1 4.4 3.1 3.4 1.7 3.7 5.3 6.7 7.3 10.1 11.0 10.6 6.1 2.4 4.5 2.0 7 .5 7.8 7.6 7.9 6.9 5.7 5.8 4.2 1.9 1.0 -.8 2.9 3.7 6.2 10.2 4.2 4.6 3.5 3.1 4.0 4.5 3.6 3.4 4.5 4.1 3.8 3.1 3.4 4.5 5.3 5.5 5.6 6.2 6.1 5.1 4.3 4.6 4.9 4.6 4.8 5.8 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Housing Transportation Shelter Period All items l Food Total ' Total > Renters' costs Homeowners' costs Fuel and other utilities Apparel and upkeep Total * New cars Motor fuel cal care BnergJ8 All items less food, shelter, and energy Addendum: All items, percent change (annua rate) From previous quarter 3 From 3 months earlier From 6 months earlier From year earlier NSA Change, December to December, NSA 1980 1981 1982 .. 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 12.5 8.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 1.1 4.4 4.4 4.6 10.2 4.3 3.1 2.7 3.8 2.6 3.8 3.5 5.2 5.6 13.7 10.2 3.6 3.5 4.3 4.3 1.7 3.7 4.0 3.9 15.0 9.9 2.4 4.7 5.2 6.0 4.6 4.8 4.5 4.9 5.1 5.9 6.3 5.0 3.9 3.9 4.5 4.5 5.1 5.9 4.6 5.3 4.7 5.1 0.6 .4 .5 .7 .4 2 .3 0 2 .5 .3 .4 1.1 0.8 .4 .7 .6 .6 2 .3 .2 .3 .4 .5 .5 2.0 0.4 .2 .3 .2 .3 .3 .6 2 2 .4 .4 .4 .7 0.4 .4 .5 .1 .5 .5 .7 .2 .1 .5 .4 .4 c 0.2 .7 1.0 -.4 .2 .4 1.2 4 -.3 .8 .5 .4 .9 0.4 .2 .4 .3 .5 .4 .5 .4 .4 .5 .4 .4 4 13.8 14.4 9.7 1.8 4.2 1.8 -5.6 1.6 2.9 3.2 6.8 3.5 1.6 2.9 2.0 2.8 .9 4.8 4.7 1.0 14.6 10.9 1.8 3.9 3.1 2.6 -5.9 6.1 3.0 4.0 7.4 18.8 9.4 6.8 1.5 -6.5 3.4 — 1.7 2.5 -2.4 3.1 3.4 5.9 -30.7 18.7 1.8 2.1 -2.1 2.3 6.8 9.9 12.5 11.0 6.4 6.1 6.8 7.7 5.8 6.9 8.5 18.0 11.9 1.3 -.5 2 1.8 -19.7 8.2 .5 5.1 0.7 2.1 1.3 11.1 2.0 — .7 -1.8 -4.8 -1.5 1.5 -1.8 -.6 8.2 0.8 .7 .6 .5 .6 .7 .6 .8 0.8 .8 .8 5.0 .8 -.6 -.5 13.5 10.3 6.2 3.2 43 3.6 1.9 3.6 9.8 9.4 6.1 5.0 4.3 3.7 3.3 3.8 4.7 4.1 4.1 4.8 Chs nge, month to month Jan ' Feb ' Mar ' Apr ' May r..... June r.... July r.... Aug '..... Sept '.... Oct ' Nov r Dec ' 1990: Jan 1989: 0.6 -.1 2 .4 .2 2 .5 0 .2 .1 .6 .6 2.0 -0.2 .1 .9 .4 .2 -.5 -.5 19 1.5 .7 0 -.3 0 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc., also included through 1982. 3 Quarterly changes are shown in the ]ast month of the quarter. 24 0.6 .7 .4 2.2 .6 -.1 -.3 -1.0 g .5 .1 .3 2.1 0.5 .3 .3 0 0 ___2 — .4 3 -.3 .6 .8 .8 .7 .7 .8 .6 .6 -.6 1.0 -.3 .3 5.1 0.6 .4 .3 .3 .4 .2 .2 .1 .4 .4 .4 .3 .5 NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1985. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5.4 6.0 2.9 3.9 4.7 5.4 6.1 6.4 6.4 5.3 4.0 2.3 2.3 2.9 4.2 4.9 7.5 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.6 5.9 5.7 5.2 4.3 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.6 5.2 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.7 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.6 5.2 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers in February were 0.6 percent below their January level. Prices paid by farmers in January were 1.1 percent above their October level. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SCALE) 180 INDEX, 1977 =100 (RATIO SCALE) 180 --- __ '""~ 160 160 140 > ^X *"~ \ PR CES PAID - /^ - ^ - •^ K^-x 120 100 140 ^ ^_ ^ / " ^ 120 k \ PRIC :S RECEIVED 100 - - 80 80 60 m i n i m i RATI D.!/ 140 - IllllllHU I l l l l l l l l l l I l l l l l l l l l l Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 60 RATIO^ - I4U 120 -" - RATIO _ ni r, ^ Illllllllll Illllllllll 1982 1983 ^n ' iiiiiiiiin Illllllllll 1984 1985 100 !_ _X—,~ -, ,— i 1 - Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 1986 1989 1988 1987 II 1990 I/RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE [1977=100; not seasonally adjusted] Prices received by farmers Period 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1989: Feb Mar.. Apr May !49 !50 148 149 r !48 147 145 144 145 147 149 June . July Aug .. Sept Oct ... Nov Dec... Jan... Feb r r r r !54 153 All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates1 Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates 143 145 141 146 136 138 146 150 160 150 159 161 164 162 159 162 169 177 151 158 159 161 156 150 151 160 167 148 153 152 155 151 144 147 157 165 158 161 154 156 157 157 161 160 162 165 170 (3) (3) 177 (3) (3) 178 (3) (3) 178 (3) (3) (3) (3) 167 (3) (3) 168 (3) (3) 166 (3) (3) (3) (3) 166 (3) (3) 166 (3) (3) 165 (3) (3) !72 171 180 (3) 169 (3) 168 (3) Livestock and products Crops 134 121 128 138 120 107 106 r !26 r !35 r !39 r !38 r !42 142 r !38 137 128 126 128 128 127 139 133 135 142 128 123 127 138 r !48 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990: All farm products Prices paid by farmers !36 135 r Production items Ratio 2 92 84 84 87 79 77 78 82 r 84 85 86 84 84 r 84 83 81 81 81 83 84 r r 86 85 NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1977—100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES In January, Ml fell slightly and growth slowed in the broader aggregates. (Series revised.) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 4,800 4,400 4,000 3,600 4,800 4,400 4,000 3,600 M3 3,200 3,200 2,800 2,800 '\ 2,400 M2 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,*00 600 400 1983 1984 1985 1986 1988 * AVERAGES Of DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1989 1990 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Ml M2 M3 Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OCDs) Ml plus overnight EPs and Eurodollars, MMMF balances (general purpose and broker/dealer), MMDAs, and savings and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, term RPs, term Eurodollars, and institution-only MMMF balances Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 412.2 439.1 476.4 522.1 551.9 620.5 725.9 752.3 1,633.3 1,795.9 1,954.5 2,186.0 2,367.2 2,567.4 2,811.2 2,909.9 1988- Dec 1989- Dec 787.5 794.8 Period 1980: 19811982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: .... 1989: Jan Peb Mar .... July Sept Oct Nov Dec .... 1990- Jan p 1 M3 plus other liquid assets Debt Debt of domestic nonfmancial sectors (monthly average) l Percent change from year or 6 months earlier 2 M2 Ml M3 Debt 1,991.1 2,236.9 2,443.8 2,694.3 2,982.3 3,201.7 3,494.9 3,677.8 2,327.8 2,599.4 2,853.5 3,155.5 3,523.4 3,830.6 4,137.1 4,336.8 3,881.9 4,269.0 4,660.0 5,185.4 5,932.7 6,741.5 7,597.0 8,316.1 6.8 6.5 8.5 9.6 5.7 12.4 17.0 3.6 8.9 10.0 8.8 11.8 8.3 8.5 9.5 3.5 10.2 12.3 9.2 10.3 10.7 7.4 9.2 5.2 9.5 10.0 9.2 11.3 14.4 13.6 12.7 9.5 3,072.4 3,221.7 3,918.4 4,043.3 4,676.1 4,866.0 9,082.2 9,801.3 .9 4.9 3.2 9.2 7.9 785.8 786.7 785.5 782.1 776.2 773.7 779.1 780.4 782.9 788.1 789.4 794.8 3,073.6 3,078.1 3,086.9 3,089.4 3,085.3 3,101.6 3,127.0 3,146.7 3,163.3 3,181.5 3,200.8 3,221.7 3,926.1 3,936.8 3,956.6 3,965.1 3,965.6 3,984.9 4,007.2 4,012.0 4,012.0 4,016.6 4,029.8 4,043.3 4,682.8 4,699.9 4,732.1 4,757.1 4,756.7 4,778.9 4,804.1 4,818.1 4,823.4 4,830.4 4,845.8 4,866.0 9,138.9 9,207.0 9,269.2 9,327.6 9,389.3 9,444.1 9,494.4 9,558.9 9,615.3 9,684.3 9,756.0 9,801.3 .6 .6 .2 -.8 -2.5 -3.5 -1.7 -1.6 -.7 1.5 3.4 5.5 2.7 2.7 3.0 2.7 1.4 1.9 3.5 4.5 4.9 6.0 7.5 7.7 4.1 4.1 4.6 4.2 3.2 3.4 4.1 3.8 2.8 2.6 3.2 2.9 8.8 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.6 794.7 3,232.0 4,051.7 4.0 6.7 2.2 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes arc from 6 months earlier at a simple annual rate. NOTE.—See p. 27 for components. 26 L C Money stock series have been revised to incorporate the annual benchmark and seasonal factor view, as well as fl minor adjustment to the composition of M2. Data prior to February 1988 are revi not yet a ilable. For further details see Federal Reserve Statistical Release II. 6, Money Stock Revisions, February 15, 1990. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Period Currency Demand deposits Other checkable deposits (OCDs) Overnight repurchase agreements (RPs), net, plus overnight Eurodollars Money market mutual fund balances General purpose and broker/ dealer Institution only Money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) Small denomination time deposits ' Savings deposits Large denomination time deposits 1 NSA 1980: Dec 1981: Dec 1982: Dec 1983- Dec 1984- Dec 1985- Dec 1986: Dec 1987- Dec 115.2 261.5 122.5 231.5 132.6 234.2 146.3 238.7 156.1 244.2 167.8 267.3 180.5 303.2 196.4 288.3 31.3 80.8 105.3 132.2 146.4 179.5 235.8 260.4 28 3 35.9 38.8 53.8 56 3 70.2 78.3 78.3 1988- Dec ' 1989: Dec ' 211.8 221.9 287.0 279.7 281.3 285.7 83.3 76.9 240.9 313.1 87.1 102.3 Jan r Feb r Mar r Apr r May ' June July ' Aug ' Sept ' Get r. Nov '. Dec ' 213.2 214.1 215.3 215.7 216.6 217.2 217.8 218.6 219.3 220.0 220.4 221.9 284.5 284.9 283.9 281.3 279.6 276.3 279.6 278.5 278.1 280.0 278.8 279.7 280.6 280.2 279.1 277.9 272.8 273.0 274.5 276.0 278.4 280.8 282.8 285.7 86.5 83.3 82.0 78.5 77.8 79.6 80.9 78.3 74.8 75.3 74.9 76.9 243.9 247.2 253.4 257.8 261.2 268.3 277.7 287.8 295.9 302.7 309.1 313.1 Jan" 224.6 277.3 285.3 81.0 320.8 1989: 1990: NSA NSA Savings bonds Shortterm Treasury securities Bankers' acceptances Com- mercial paper 34.0 36.0 34.5 51.8 61.9 65.6 84.0 109.1 50.3 67.5 81.7 91.5 82.9 76.1 84.9 90.8 72.3 67.8 68.0 71.1 74.2 79.4 91.7 100.4 133.5 149.4 183.6 211.9 260.7 300.1 282.3 257.5 32.1 40.0 44.5 45.0 45.4 42.0 37.2 44.7 1,031.0 1,142.1 541.1 558.1 121.7 94.8 106.0 82.3 109.3 117.5 272.2 316.2 40.6 41.2 335.6 347.9 424.2 421.0 417.9 412.0 405.4 403.4 403.3 404.0 405.5 406.1 407.9 409.0 1,042.7 1,054.2 1,066.4 1,084.1 1,103.0 1,114.0 1,122.4 1,130.0 1,132.6 1,135.9 1,138.5 1,142.1 546.7 553.3 560.1 568.3 573.1 574.9 574.7 570.5 565.6 562.7 560.9 558.1 123.0 126.7 128.9 126.3 127.5 128.4 123.8 116.9 112.9 108.3 107.2 94.8 100.6 100.1 105.7 100.3 97.2 93.4 91.8 89.6 85.3 80.4 80.3 82.3 109.8 110.7 111.5 112.2 112.8 113.6 114.3 115.0 115.7 116.2 116.8 117.5 270.7 268.2 274.3 280.2 288.3 289.7 291.3 294.2 304.4 307.6 307.4 316.2 40.6 40.6 41.4 41.5 41.2 41.2 41.9 42.6 41.0 40.0 40.5 41.2 335.7 343.6 348.3 358.2 348.8 349.4 349.5 354.3 350.3 350.0 410.3 1,142.4 554.3 91.3 77.7 728.6 823.2 851.0 784.0 886.3 882.6 853.9 914.1 500.3 483.8 427.8 409.0 87.1 86.9 86.3 88.3 92.1 96.3 99.0 101.4 101.6 101.1 101.1 102.3 492.6 485.6 479.9 473.2 463.1 460.9 463.9 468.2 471.9 475.3 480.8 483.8 103.3 484.9 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. NOTE.—Travelers checks of nonbank issuers are a component of money stock but are not shown Term Eurodollars (net) 260.1 302.5 326.8 327.4 417.2 436.6 439.0 487.4 400.2 344.0 356.9 305.6 285.4 301.6 371.0 416.4 1 Term repurchase agreements (RPs) 98.8 105.3 113.6 133.2 160.7 207.4 231.0 260.3 351.3 347.9 here. See Note pg. 26 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE [Averages of daily figures *•; millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal Reserve (NSA) Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements Reserves of depository institutions Period Total 1980: 19811982: 19831984: 1985: 19861987: 1988- Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 1989: Dec ' 1989: Jan ' Feb '. Mar ' May ' July ' Sept r. Oct ' Nov ' Dee ' 1990: Jan <> . Nonhorrowed Nonborrowed plus extended credit Required Monetary base Total Seasonal Extended credit 1,690 636 634 774 3,186 1,318 827 777 1,716 116 54 33 96 113 56 38 93 130 285,105 265 84 20 276,767 277,561 278,472 278,398 278,712 279,210 280,137 280,923 281,970 282,944 283,381 285,105 1,662 1,487 1,813 2,289 1,720 1,490 694 675 693 555 349 265 76 97 139 213 345 431 497 490 452 330 134 84 1,046 1,050 1,334 1,707 1,197 917 106 41 22 21 21 20 287,692 440 47 26 33,401 35,315 37 388 39,184 42,321 48,493 58,140 58,693 60,706 31,711 34,679 36,754 38,410 39,134 47,175 57,313 57,916 58,990 31,714 34,827 36,940 38,412 41,739 47,674 57,616 58,399 60,234 32,887 34,996 36,888 38,623 41,468 47,436 56,771 57,665 59,666 152,525 161,043 173,011 188,303 201,889 219,510 241,448 257,991 275,503 60,033 59,767 59,787 59,110 60,358 60,363 59,980 59,351 58,826 58,597 58,867 58,906 59,289 59,640 59,646 60,033 58,696 58,896 58,168 57,062 57,106 57,107 58,173 58,231 58,596 59,085 59,297 59,767 59,742 59,946 59,502 58,769 58,304 58,024 58,279 58,272 58,618 59,106 59,318 59,787 59,214 59,229 59,023 58,575 57,796 57,692 57,901 58,021 58,351 58,620 58,701 59,110 59,897 59,457 59,482 58,880 Special Notice, March 1, 1990. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstem. 3 148 186 2 2,604 499 303 483 1,244 BANK LOANS AND SECURITIES Total commercial bank loans and leases rose 0.2 percent in January. Commercial and industrial loans were about unchanged from their December level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,800 ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 2,400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,800 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 LOANS AND LEASES 1,200 1,200 800 800 400 400 U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 200 200 160 OTHER SECURITIES- 160 III 120 1982 1984 1983 1985 III 1986 1988 1987 • SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 120 1989 1990 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted *] All commercial banks Loans and leases Period Total securities 2 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1989: 1989: Dec Dec Dec Dee Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dee 1990: Jan".... 1,307.7 1,401.5 1,553.6 1,723.7 1,911.4 2,094.5 2,239.6 2,417.2 2,577.4 U.S. Government securities 179.3 201.7 259.2 260.2 270.7 309.6 335.5 2,422.8 2,451.9 2,464.9 2,470.9 2,486.3 2,496.8 2,518.1 2,534.4 2,544.1 2,575.5 2,583.9 2,577.4 361.4 396.9 360.4 361.8 368.8 370.7 373.5 373.8 374.4 376.6 378.8 391.7 397.5 396.9 2,585.8 404.6 Other securities 160.9 165.7 170.6 142.6 181.4 196.5 195.3 194.0 181.3 189.6 190.4 189.7 187.2 186.4 185.8 184.6 182.8 182.9 182.7 180.3 181.3 178.0 Total 2 Commercial and industrial 967.5 1,034.1 1,123.9 1,321.0 1,459.3 1,588.4 1,708.8 1,861.9 1,999.2 355.4 392.6 414.1 472.9 499.7 536.2 562.7 601.9 634.2 1,872.9 1,899.7 1,906.5 1,913.1 1,926.5 1,937.3 1,959.1 1,974.9 1,982.4 2,001.1 2,006.1 1,999.2 606.6 619.0 617.8 620.6 626.3 624.9 632.1 637.3 636.9 641.1 641.6 634.2 2,003.3 634.5 Heal estate Individual Security Nonbank financial institutions 284.1 299.8 330.8 376.3 425.8 494.0 589.0 672.0 754.8 678.9 685.6 691.8 699.5 705.5 712.0 719.9 729.0 734.4 741.1 747.7 754.8 759.2 182.5 188.2 212.9 253.8 294.8 315.9 329.5 355.5 378.1 357.9 358.9 360.6 362.9 365.4 366.0 367.0 369.3 372.1 374.4 376.9 378.1 380.7 21.5 25.4 28.1 34.3 48.7 40.1 34.4 38.5 r 37.7 37.6 44.7 43.5 39.9 r 37.6 r 40.8 r 40.1 39.3 39.9 41.4 r 40.5 r 37.7 36.5 29.9 31.3 30.5 31.4 32.5 35.0 31.9 30.0 32.2 30.1 30.5 29.6 29.1 28.6 30.2 31.2 31.1 31.3 32.4 33.1 32.2 32.2 2 Agricultural 33.1 36.2 39.2 40.1 36.1 31.6 29.4 30.7 30.5 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.7 State End political subdivisions 0.0 .0 3.3 46.0 56.7 58.4 52.5 46.7 41.0 44.2 44.3 44.3 44.4 44.4 44.2 43.9 43.6 43.5 42.9 42.3 41.0 39.4 Foreign official institutions Lease financing receivables 18.1 14.8 13.4 11.1 7.2 5.9 9.4 7.9 9.7 9.6 7.5 7.6 9.1 7.8 8.5 8.2 8.4 9.4 9.3 8.9 9.3 8.5 9.7 9.0 9.1 8.8 6.0 5.9 5.3 4.9 3.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.4 12.7 13.3 13.7 16.0 19.0 Forbanks Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstem. of States and political subdivisions are included in loans rather than in other securitiei 28 22.3 24.5 29.2 31.1 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.8 30.0 29.9 30.3 30.3 31.0 31.6 31.6 31.1 31.8 Other 23.1 26.6 31.8 31.2 36.3 39.4 42.1 44.9 r 46.7 44.8 43.1 45.6 43.2 r 44.2 r 44.9 50.8 r 51.0 50.2 52.3 49.2 r 46.7 46.2 SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Uses Sources External Period Total Internal Capital expenditures 3 Credit market funds ] Total Securities a,nd mortgages Total Loans and short-term paper Total Other 2 Increase in financial assets Discrepancy (sources less uses) 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985.. 1986 1987 1988 323.7 323.3 377.4 303.0 419.2 495.0 457.3 510.7 486.3 508.3 197.6 200.1 239.5 242.3 285.7 336.3 352.3 344.9 352.6 372.5 126.1 123.1 137.9 60.7 133.5 158.7 105.0 165.8 133.6 135.8 60.3 70.7 91.8 50.3 78.3 95.1 50.9 123.0 69.0 77.0 9.0 30.5 25.4 -1.7 44.6 -9.1 -3.0 58.9 38.1 7.7 51.3 40.2 66.4 52.0 33.7 104.2 53.9 64.0 30.9 69.3 65.8 52.5 46.0 10.4 55.2 63.6 54.1 42.9 64.6 58.8 368.3 341.6 382.9 302.7 392.0 473.0 422.9 448.2 453.9 473.4 238.6 243.2 285.9 255.7 269.9 367.9 339.9 328.8 348.3 380.4 129.8 98.4 97.0 47.0 122.1 105.1 83.0 119.3 105.6 92.9 -44.6 -18.3 -5.6 .3 27.2 22.0 34.4 62.6 32.4 34.9 1988: I II III IV 507.6 508.3 528.5 488.8 369.0 367.2 372.3 381.6 138.6 141.1 156.2 107.2 95.5 109.4 82.0 21.0 38.2 28.1 38.7 -74.3 57.3 81.3 43.3 95.3 43.1 31.7 74.3 86.2 470.9 474.1 500.8 447.7 359.2 380.7 390.1 391.8 111.7 93.3 110.8 55.9 36.7 34.3 27.7 41.1 1989: I II III ". 483.8 536.6 440.3 361.9 364.8 373.1 121.9 171.8 67.3 30.6 158.0 25.4 -52.2 30.5 -22.8 82.8 127.5 48.2 91.3 13.8 41.9 445.5 505.1 415.1 376.0 388.8 386.6 69.6 116.4 28.5 38.3 31.4 25.2 1979 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capita allowances, and foreign branch profit 2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S 3 Plant and [jiiipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Govi lors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Net change in installment credit outstanding 1 Installment credit outstanding (end of period) Period Total 1980: 1981: 1982: 19831984: 19851986: 19871988: 1989- Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 2P 1989- Jan 2 Feb Mar Apr June July Aue Oct Nov r Dec p Other Revolving 297,566 310,682 323,536 367,868 442,538 517,755 572,047 607,721 659,507 717,074 111,936 118,956 124,218 143,799 173,704 209,636 247,313 265,976 281,174 289,459 54,894 60,838 66,243 78,667 100,212 122,013 137,013 153,884 174,792 203,301 18,621 20,302 22,833 23,704 25,795 26,834 27,355 26,387 25,744 22,602 112,115 110,586 110,242 121,698 142,827 159,272 160,367 161,475 177,798 201,711 682,020 687,397 691,162 693,911 698,132 700,849 700,344 703,001 704,371 707,562 712,160 717,074 286,382 288,767 288,850 289,654 290,741 290,192 288,526 288,533 287,754 288,747 289,200 289,459 176,716 178,570 182,831 184,500 186,502 189,622 191,028 194,398 195,302 196,379 199,240 203,301 26,036 25,992 24,168 23,993 23,952 23,685 23,630 22,938 22,991 22,947 22,567 22,602 192,886 194,068 195,314 195,763 196,936 197,349 197,161 197,132 198,324 199,490 201,154 201,711 1 For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month. 2 Data newly available in January 1989 result in breaks in many series between December 1988 Mobile home Automobile Mobile home Automobile Revolving 1,083 13,116 12,854 44,332 74,670 75,217 54,292 35,674 51,786 -539 7,020 5,262 19,581 29,905 35,932 37,677 18,663 15,198 1,537 5,944 5,405 12,424 21,545 21,801 15,000 16,871 20,908 414 1,681 2,531 871 2,091 1,039 521 -968 -643 -329 -1,529 -344 11,456 21,129 16,445 1,095 1,108 16,323 5,377 3,765 2,749 4,221 2,717 -505 2,657 1,371 3,191 4,598 4,913 2,385 82 804 1,087 -549 -1,667 7 -779 993 453 259 1,854 4,261 1,670 2,002 3,120 1,406 3,370 904 1,076 2,861 4,062 -44 -1,824 -174 —41 -267 -56 -692 53 — 44 -380 35 1,182 1,246 449 1,173 413 -189 -29 1,192 1,166 1,664 557 Total and January 1989. Because of breaks in series, net change not available. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Other INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates rose in February. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM II OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW [Percent per annum] U.S. Treasury security yields Period 3-month bills (new issues) l Constant maturities 3-year 2 10-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard3 & Poor's) Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) 4 Prime commercial paper, 6 months ' Discount rate (N.Y. F.K. 5 Bank) Prime rate charged r by banks ' New-home mortgage yields (FHFB) 6 14.029 10.686 8.63 9.58 7.48 5.98 5.82 6.69 8.12 14.44 12.92 10.45 11.89 9.64 7.06 7.68 8.26 8.55 13.91 13.00 11.10 12.44 10.62 7.68 8.39 8.85 8.49 11.23 11.57 9.47 10.15 9.18 7.38 7.73 7.76 7.24 14.17 13.79 12.04 12.71 11.37 9.02 9.38 9.71 9.26 14.76 11.89 8.89 10.16 8.01 6.39 6.85 7.68 8.80 13.42 11.02 8.50 8.80 7.69 6.33 5.66 6.20 6.93 18.87 14.86 10.79 12.04 9.93 8.33 8.21 9.32 10.87 14.70 15.14 12.57 12.38 11.55 10.17 9.31 9.19 10.13 1989: Feb Mar . Apr May June July Aue Sent Oct Nov Dec 8.48 8.83 8.70 8.40 8.22 7.92 7.91 7.72 7.63 7.65 7.64 9.32 9.61 9.40 8.98 8.37 7.83 8.13 8.26 8.02 7.80 7.77 9.17 9.36 9.18 8.86 8.28 8.02 8.11 8.19 8.01 7.87 7.84 7.47 7.61 7.49 7.25 6.97 6.97 7.08 7.27 7.22 7.13 7.01 9.64 9.80 9.79 9.57 9.10 8.93 8.96 9.01 8.92 8.89 8.86 9.35 9.97 9.78 9.29 8.80 8.35 8.32 8.50 8.24 8.00 7.93 6.50-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 10.50-11.50 11.50-11.50 11.50-11.50 11.50-11.50 11.50-11.00 11.00-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 9.82 9.99 10.17 10.18 10.42 10.48 10.22 10.24 10.11 10.09 10.07 1990: Jan Feb Week ended: 1990: Feb 3 10 17 24 Mar 3 " 7.64 7.76 8.13 8.39 8.21 8.47 7.13 7.21 8.99 9.22 7.96 8.04 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 10.50-10.00 10.00-10.00 9.91 7.77 7.83 7.65 7.80 7.72 8.38 8.38 8.30 8.49 8.44 8.47 8.48 8.39 8.58 8.50 7.25 7.22 7.13 7.24 7.24 9.15 9.22 9.21 9.27 9.26 8.04 8.04 8.00 8.05 8.07 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00- 10.00-10.00 10.00-10.00 10.00-10.00 10.00-10.00 10.00- 1981 1982 .. 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1 Bank-discount basis. 2 Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Series excludes public utility issues for January 17, 1984 through October 11, 1984 due to lack of appropriate issues. 30 5 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of iO years. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Housing Finance Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices fell in February. INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 (RATIOSCALE) INDEX DEC. 31, 1965=50 (RATIO SCALE) 240 220 200 V—*•"! 180 240 220 200 180 s. s-/ APOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX ^^/ \ (NYSE) _j| ( \ S^^^ 160 140 \T 120 160 140 ~ 120 / /^^~ 100 100 ^-^~ / 80 60 1 80 ^J" 60 ,,, ,,!,,,,, 40 1983 1982 1 11 i 1 1 1 11 M i 1984 1986 1985 1987 1989 1988 40 1990 PERC ENT PERC ENT 20 20 15 NGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMA(S&P1 !5 10 10 . -— 5 ^ 0 1 | 1983 1982 | i | 1984 \ . ^ i 4 1985 ^1 r i t 1986 ^-~ 1 1 f 1987 5 i i i 1988 1 OURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE At •ID STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION f 1 1 1989 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985... . 1986 1987 1988 1989 1989: Feb Mar Apr Mav Julv Sept Get Nov De'1990: Jan Feb Industrial Transportation | 0 1990 Common stock yields (percent) 5 New York Stock Exchange indexes (T ec. 31, 1965 = 5 O ) 2 Composite i COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Common stock prices * Period i Utility Finance Dow- Jones industrial average 3 Standard & Poor's composite index (194143 = 10) 4 Dividendprice ratio 74.02 68.93 92.63 92.46 108.09 136.00 161.70 149.91 180.02 85.44 78.18 107.45 108.01 123.79 155.85 195.31 180.95 216.23 72.61 60.41 89.36 85.63 104.11 119.87 140.39 134.12 175.28 38.91 39.75 47.00 46.44 56.75 71.36 74.30 71.77 87.43 73.52 71.99 95.34 89.28 114.21 147.20 146.48 127.26 151.88 932.92 884.36 1,190.34 1,178.48 1,328.23 1,792.76 2,275.99 2,060.82 2,508.91 128.05 119.71 160.41 160.46 186.84 236.34 286.83 265.79 322.84 5.20 5.81 4.40 4.64 4.25 3.49 3.08 3.64 3.45 165.08 (64.60 169.38 175.30 180.76 185.15 192.94 193.02 192.49 188.50 192.67 200.00 19,9.20 204.81 211.51 216.75 221.74 231.32 230.86 229.40 224.38 230.12 162.66 160.14 164.32 168.89 173.47 179.32 197.52 202.02 190.36 174.26 177.25 77.84 77.66 79.69 84.07 87.90 90.40 92.91 93.44 94.67 94.95 99.73 137.19 137.91 143.26 146.59 154.08 157.78 164.86 165.51 166.55 160.89 155.63 2,304.30 2,28,9.11 2,348.91 2,439.55 2,494.90 2,554.03 2,691.11 2,693.41 2,692.01 2,642.49 2,728.47 294.01 292.71 302.25 313.93 323.73 331.93 346.61 347.33 347.40 340.22 348.57 187.96 182.55 225.79 220.60 173.67 166.69 95.69 92.15 150.11 142.68 2,679.24 2,614.18 339.97 330.45 3.59 ,9.68 3.59 3.52 3.44 3.38 3.28 3.29 3.29 3.39 3.33 3.41 3.54 180.79 183.69 183.41 180.52 183.00 217.92 221.97 221.87 218.29 220.92 164.21 167.28 166.85 164.83 170.56 92.19 93.14 92.62 90.42 91.99 141.54 142.80 142.56 142.08 144.27 2,575.22 2,632.30 2,630.54 2,579.84 2,628.56 327.39 332.37 332.14 328.38 331.82 3.54 3.50 3.53 3.58 3.54 Earningsprice ratio 11.96 11.60 8.03 10.02 8.12 6.09 5.48 8.01 8.46 7.93 6.80 Week ended: 1990: Feb 3 10 17 24 Mar 3" 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first 4 months of fiscal 1990, there was a deficit of $59.8 billion, compared with a deficit of $64.8 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 1,200 — RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS^ 1,100 1,100 OUTLAYS!' V.--' 1,000 1,000 900 900 800 800 700 700 600 600 — SURPLUS OR DEFICIT H-^ -100 -100 -200 1 1982 1983 1984 1985 ^ 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 199l vT -200 FISCAL YEARS !/ INCLUDES ON-BUOGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Total Fiscal year or period Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) Receipts Outlays Gross Federal debt (end of period) Off-budget On-budget Surplus or deficit (-) Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) Total Held by the public -4.3 20 -1.1 50 — 7.9 .2 .3 629.0 643.6 706.4 776.6 828.9 908.5 994.3 1,136.8 1,371.2 1,564.1 477.4 495.5 549.1 607.1 639.8 709.3 784.8 919.2 1,131.0 1,300.0 176.8 183.5 193.8 202.7 210.9 225.8 236.0 9.4 16.7 19.6 38.8 52.8 59.7 78.6 1,817.0 2,120.1 2,345.6 2,600.8 2,866.2 3,113.3 3,319.2 1,499.4 1,736.2 1,888.1 2,050.2 2,189.3 2,298.7 2,357.3 66.3 69.9 12.1 13.0 2,706.2 2,973.8 2,110.6 2,260.4 1976.... Transition quarter 1977.... 1978 1979.... 1980 1981.... 1982 1983 .. 1984 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 371.8 96.0 409.2 458.7 503.5 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 851.8 73 7 -14.7 53 6 -59.2 40 2 -73.8 78 9 -127.9 -207.8 -185.3 231.7 63.2 278.7 314.2 365.3 403.9 469.1 474.3 453.2 500.4 302.2 76.6 328.5 369.1 403.5 476.6 543.0 594.3 661.2 686.0 -70.5 13 3 -49.7 -54.9 -38.2 -72.7 -73.9 -120.0 -208.0 -185.6 66.4 18.0 76.8 85.4 98.0 113.2 130.2 143.5 147.3 166.1 69.6 19.4 80.7 89.7 100.0 114.3 135.2 151.4 147.1 165.8 32 -1.4 39 1985 1986 . 1987 1988 1989 1990 (estimates) 1991 (estimates).. 734.1 769.1 854.1 909.0 990.7 1,073.5 1,170.2 946.3 990.3 1,003.8 1,064.0 1,142.6 1,197.2 1,233.3 -212.3 -221.2 -149.7 -155.1 -152.0 -123.8 -63.1 547.9 568.9 640.7 667.5 727.0 788.0 855.7 769.5 806.8 810.0 861.4 931.7 971.5 997.4 221 6 -237.9 -169.3 -193.9 204 7 -183.4 141 7 186.2 200.2 213.4 241.5 263.7 285.4 314.5 310.9 328.3 375.7 388.1 -64.8 -59.8 232.5 245.4 309.4 318.2 769 -72.8 78.4 82.9 Cumulative total, first 4 months' J Fiscal year 1989 Fiscal year 1990 . .. 1 Data from Monthly Treasury Slatemeni. NOTE.—Data are from Budget of the United Statet Government, Fiscal Year 1991, January 32 1990, except as noted. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 4 months of fiscal 1990, receipts were $17.4 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $12.4 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS —RECEIPTSi/- 500 500 - INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXESV 400 400 300 300 SOCIAL INSURANCE "TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS ' 200 CORPORATION INCOME TAXES" 200 100 100 0 900 —OUTLAYS-!/ - 900 800 800 NONDEFENSE 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 NATIONAL DEFENSE 300 300 200 200 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1991 1990 FISCAL YEARS _!/'INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] On-budget and off-budget outlays On-budget and off-budget receipts Corporation income taxes Social insurance taxes and contributions 298.1 131.6 355.6 157.6 399.6 181.0 463.3 217.8 511. 1 244.1 599.3 285.9 617.8 297.7 600.6 288.9 666.5 298.4 41.4 54.9 60.0 65.7 64.6 61.1 49.2 37.0 56.9 90.8 106.5 121.0 138.9 157.8 182.7 201.5 209.0 239.4 34.3 36.6 37.7 40.8 50.6 69.5 69.3 65.6 71.8 371.8 409.2 458.7 503.5 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 851.8 89.6 97.2 104.5 116.3 134.0 157.5 185.3 209.9 227.4 Total 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 .. 1981 1982 1983 1984 , 1985 1986 1987 .... 1988 1989 1990 (estimates) 1991 (estimates) Cumulative total, first 4 months: * Fiscal year 1989 Fiscal year 1990 Other Total Total International affairs Health Medicare Income security Social security Net interest Other 87.9 95.1 102.3 113.6 130.9 153.9 180.7 204.4 220.9 6.4 6.4 7.5 7.5 12.1 13.1 12.3 11.8 15.9 15.7 17.3 18.5 20.5 23.2 26.9 27.4 28.6 30.4 15.8 19.3 22.8 26.5 32.1 39.1 46.6 52.6 57.5 60.8 61.0 61.5 66.4 8S.5 99.7 107.7 122.6 112.7 73.9 85.1 93.9 104.1 118.5 139.6 156.0 170.7 178.2 26.7 29.9 35.4 42.6 52.5 68.7 85.0 89.8 111.1 82.8 93.0 114.7 119.6 131.4 133.5 125.4 122.3 118.6 Department of Defense, military 734.1 769.1 854.1 909.0 990.7 1,073.5 1,170.2 334.5 349.0 392.6 401.2 445.7 139.4 528.5 61.3 63.1 83.9 94.5 103.6 112.0 129.7 265.2 283.9 303.3 334.3 359.4 385.4 421.4 73.0 73.1 74.3 78.9 82.0 86.6 90.6 946.3 990.3 1,003.8 1,064.0 1,142.6 1,197.2 1,233.3 252.7 273.4 282.0 290.4 303.6 296.3 303.3 245.2 265.5 274.0 281.9 294.9 286.8 292.1 16.2 14.2 11.6 10.5 9.6 14.6 18.2 33.5 35.9 40.0 44.5 48.4 57.8 63.7 65.8 70.2 75.1 78.9 85.0 96.6 98.6 128.2 119.8 123.3 129.3 136.0 146.6 153.7 188.6 198.8 207.4 219.3 232.5 248.5 264.8 129.4 136.0 138.6 151.7 169.1 175.6 173.0 131.8 142.1 125.9 139.4 158.4 161.3 158.1 310.9 328.3 149.4 163.4 28.7 25.1 105.3 109.8 27.5 30.1 375.7 388.1 99.5 95.7 96.6 92.6 1.9 5.2 16.0 17.7 26.0 30.7 43.0 46.4 74.3 79.2 54.4 58.5 60.8 54.7 1 Data from Monthly Treasury Statement. NOTE.—Data are from Budget of the United States 1990, except as noted. National defense Individual income taxes Fiscal year Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. wnt, Fiscal Year 1991, January FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the fourth quarter of 1989, according to revised estimates, Federal expenditures rose $22.9 billion (annual rate); receipts data are incomplete. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1,200 1,200 EXPENDITURES 1,000 1,000 -\ 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 SURPLUS OR DEFICIT {-) \[ -200 -200 1981 1982 1984 1983 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Government expenditures Federal Government receipts Personal Period Total tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Contributions for social insurance Pur- Total chases of goods and Transfer payments services Grantsin-aid to State and local governments Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Surplus or deficit Less: Wage accruals less disbursements (-), national income and product accounts Fiscal year: 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 776.8 815.2 897.3 958.6 1,046.4 340.4 357.0 401.2 408.0 457.3 74.6 81.1 97.7 108.3 115.4 55.9 50.9 53.4 55.8 57.6 305.8 326.1 345.0 386.4 416.1 962.3 1,028.0 1,060.4 1,104.0 1,175.6 341.5 368.6 375.5 378.6 400.5 374.0 394.6 411.2 432.7 461.6 97.8 107.4 103.1 108.6 115.8 128.3 134.6 138.8 149.0 168.6 20.7 22.8 31.9 35.1 29.1 -0.1 .0 .1 1 .0 -185.5 212 8 -163.1 145 4 -129.2 Calendar year: 1985 1986 1987... 1988 1989 r. 788.7 827.9 911.4 972.4 1,046.7 346.4 361.4 405.8 413.0 460.4 310.9 332.1 350.8 391.3 422.5 236.1 259.8 290.7 317.7 337.9 359.7 382.0 388.2 394.5 400.6 414.3 420.2 424.8 430.6 355.2 366.5 381.6 381.3 402.9 1,183.7 1,198.6 1,187.9 1,210.8 399.0 406.0 402.7 404.0 130.1 135.6 141.7 151.4 171.1 87.2 101.0 125.3 132.7 136.0 147.3 144.9 149.9 153.9 157.0 167.0 172.0 171.2 174.3 20.3 26.0 32.6 36.0 29.2 23.4 29.1 21.0 19.0 29.2 41.9 34.4 41.2 29.4 38.9 38.5 35.3 20.1 22.8 .0 .0 .6 .0 .0 2 1,096.5 1,114.7 1,099.8 1,162.1 293.2 276.1 326.0 376.6 368.8 388.1 374.1 377.1 367.5 406.4 99.7 106.8 102.6 111.4 119.4 84.5 86.0 96.3 103.5 103.0 102.2 110.1 112.2 111.0 112.2 118.7 118.4 118.3 122.1 196 9 -206.9 161 4 145 8 -148.5 835.7 844.7 930.2 1,017.5 1,042.8 1,101.7 380.1 399.9 414.3 438.2 472.6 347.4 352.5 362.1 385.8 405.8 421.9 433.0 434.4 438.0 447.6 460.4 466.9 475.6 487.6 2 .0 .0 .0 .0 303.0 291.9 326.0 355.3 376.2 420.0 55.1 50.5 53.8 56.7 58.7 47.6 53.6 56.2 53.5 50.8 54.5 55.9 55.9 57.4 57.8 58.0 58.2 59.4 59.1 985.6 1,034.8 1,072.8 1,118.3 1,195.2 633.1 675.5 742.7 805.3 853.8 937.4 944.7 973.2 977.3 994.6 1,036.2 1,053.2 1,043.2 76.3 83.8 101.0 111.4 105.1 46.4 70.2 69.7 78.8 88.9 103.1 104.2 111.6 114.0 115.8 117.0 109.7 99.9 -202.6 -169.2 -187.5 212 2 -189.0 164 4 -151.8 -141.5 -122.5 167 6 -147.5 -145.4 — 144.7 1982: 1983: 1984: 19851986: 19871988: 1989: IV IV IV IV IV IV I. n in IV I. II m IV r 402.7 417.5 411.4 420.3 446.8 465.1 459.1 470.8 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 34 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES 118.1 117.8 118.8 119.2 116.9 117.8 118.8 120.5 119.7 120.8 120.2 U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Cieneral merchandise imports (customs value) ft Merchandise exports (f.a.s. viiUie) ' Principal end-use commodity catogorv Period Total z 1982 1983 1984 5 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 5 Foods, feeds, and beverages Industrial supplies and materials Copta! goods except automotive 216.4 205.6 224.0 218.8 227.2 254.1 322.4 364.3 31.3 30.9 31.5 24.0 22.3 24.3 32.3 35.0 61.7 56.7 61.7 58.5 57.3 66.7 85.1 92.8 72.7 67.2 72.0 73.9 75.8 86.2 109.2 123.7 1988: Dec 28 9 2.8 7.4 10.1 1989: Jan Feh Mar 29.0 28 8 30.1 30.8 30.5 31.3 30.5 30.6 30.7 31.0 30.4 31.1 2.9 29 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 7.1 7.5 7.6 8.0 7.9 8.3 8.2 7.8 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.5 9.4 9.3 9.9 10.1 9.8 10.6 10.9 10.6 11.7 10.8 9.8 10.8 May July Aug Sept ... Oct Nov r Dec Automotive vehicles, parts, and en- 15.7 16.8 20.6 22.9 21.7 24.6 29.3 29.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.7 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.7 Consumer goods (nonfood) except automotive Trade balance Principal end-use commodity category Total Other 2 14.3 13.4 13.3 12.6 14.2 17.7 23.1 32.8 20.7 20.5 24.0 27.3 35.9 34.6 43.4 50.7 23 3.6 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.9 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.7 29 3.2 4.7 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.0 3.6 4.0 3.7 4.4 4.8 4.1 4 4 Foods feeds, and beverages Industrial plk's and materials Automotive vehicles, parts, and gincs Consumer goods (iionInod) except automotive 35.4 40.9 59.8 65.1 71.8 84.5 101.4 114.1 33.3 40.8 53.5 66.8 78.2 85.2 87.7 85.6 6.5 39.7 6.3 44.9 TO.O 1.8 68.3 9.4 79.4 10.4 12.1 88.7 12.8 95.9 13.5 102.5 Capital goods except automotive 472.9 17.1 18.2 21.0 21.9 24.4 24.8 24.8 25.1 112.0 107.0 123.7 113.9 101.3 111.0 118.3 132.0 39.7 2 2 10.2 9.1 8.0 9-0 37.9 38.2 39.5 39.0 40.5 39.3 38.7 40.7 39.2 41.3 40.7 38.3 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.0 10.7 10.0 11.0 11.3 11.7 11.4 11.4 11.4 10.3 11.8 11.0 10.4 9.0 9.3 9.3 9.1 9.9 9.5 9.1 10.2 9.6 9.7 10.3 9.2 7.4 7.6 7.7 7.3 7.2 6.7 6.6 7.1 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.7 7.7 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.~ 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.7 244.0 258.0 330.7 336.5 365.4 406.2 441.0 1.9 2.3 22 2.0 Other General merchandise imports (e.i.f. value) Exports (f.a.s) less imports (customs value) Exports (f.a.s) less imports (c.i.f.) -38.4 -27.5 -64.2 -52.4 -V22.4 - TO6.7 254.9 269.9 346.4 352.5 382.3 424.4 459.5 492.9 -138.3 -152.1 -118.5 -108.6 -155.1 -170.3 -137.1 -128.5 1.2 41.3 -10.8 -12.5 .9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 l.l 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.2 39.5 39.7 41.2 40.7 42.2 40.9 40.4 42.4 40.8 43.1 42.4 39.9 -8.9 -9.4 -10.5 -10.9 -11.2 -9.9 -11.7 -9.6 — 9.9 -11.9 -10.1 -12.0 -12.1 -8.8 - 133.6 -8.3 -10.1 -8.0 — 8.2 -10.1 -8.5 -10.2 - 10.3 — 7.2 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS !n the fourth quarter of 1989, the merchandise trade deficit rose slightly, to $28.8 billion from $28.6 billion in the third quarter. (Data revised.) SILL ONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 10 10 5 5 :;::: 0 " \:I/ -5 s -10 Vv \ - 0 A* x A^ ^\ \ \> \% \ \\ \ V v N \ \ -20 -15 X -25 \ B 4.LANCE ON GOO DS AND SERVICES -20 X •^ \ \ /^ «^ V -- -. \ ^" \\ \ ^ '^... &^ERCHANDISE TRADE. BALANCE \ ;T *° w / /"^ -40 -45 , I I I 1981 1982 1983 1 ,-, !i it ; ^ ><f- 'v^-'\ \^ L_L-_L_L_ 1984 \ 1986 1985 / -25 -30 p ALANC -35 CUR RENT A CCOUNT 40 I 1 1 1987 LJ 1 1 I ! -45 1989 1988 "SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted. Credits ( + ), debits ( —)] Merchandise ' 2 Investment income 3 military transac' Net travel and transportation receipts — 2,577 — 1,523 — 474 — 343 — 2,099 -3,557 — 4,576 — 2.857 —4,606 — 997 144 — 992 — 4,227 — 7,885 — 9,832 — 8,031 — 7,324 — 2,633 -1,089 — 777 -176 -210 -1,031 -1,440 — 964 -1,033 -1,006 — 1 ,604 -1,498 -1,518 -968 -1,874 — 2,241 - 1 ,965 -2,088 -1,279 -1,993 -1,854 -719 -155 94 — 297 91 193 Net Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 . . 1989 p.... Exports Imports 224,269 237,085 211498 201,820 219,900 215,935 223,367 250,266 319,251 361,872 56,182 56,490 57,255 60,015 64,297 68,699 76,447 — 249,749 — 265,063 — 247*642 — 268,900 — 332,422 — 338,083 — 368,425 — 409,766 — 446,466 — 475*120 — 92,983 -95,081 -95,916 -99,834 -104,903 -109,113 - 109,893 — 109,882 -110,943 -115,748 r -116,138 r - 118,813 '"-119,249 -120,920 1986: III IV 1987: I II Ill IV 1988: l II I 78,471 III 80,604 IV 83,729 1989: I ''87,783 r II 91,284 Ill ".... '90,691 IV ?.... 92,114 36 Net balance Receipts Payl ' Net — 25,480 72,506 — 42,119 30,387 — 52,329 34,083 — 27,978 86,412 _ 36*444 83*548 — 54*884 28*664 — 67,080 77,251 — 52,376 24,875 — 112,522 85,908 — 67,419 18,489 — 122,148 88*,832 — 62*901 25,931 — 145,058 88,615 — 66,968 21,647 — 159*500 104*703 — 82*420 22,283 — 127,215 107.775 — 105,548 2,227 — 113*248 -36.801 21.744 6,015 -15,729 4,472 -38,591 20,822 — 16,350 5,362 -38.681 25,117 -19,755 2,190 -39,819 22,744 -20,554 -40,606 23,578 -21,904 1,674 — 40,414 33 265 -20,207 13,058 -33.446 26.750 2,795 -23,955 — 31,411 23.148 -25,613 -2,465 -30,339 24,720 i -27,310 -2,590 — 32,019 33,159 4,489 -28,670 -28,355 26,830 -29,246 -2,416 -27,529 26,644 -32,765 -6,121 r -28,558 33,808 2,611 -31,197 -28,806 Other services, net 3 Balance on goods and services Remittances, pensions, and other unilateral transfers * 7,794 9,126 — 7,593 — 7,647 11,085 15,810 2,191 — 9,188 11,436 -3,776 12,264 — 34,510 12,299 — 91,718 — 12,468 12,351 — 97,256 — 15,426 18,547 — 117,470 — 15,778 17,909 — 129,488 — 14,212 20,335 — 111,892 — 14,656 4,539 4,807 4,250 4.372 4,555 4,734 4,787 5,042 5,126 5,381 5,725 5,886 6,884 -29,210 -32,330 -31,190 -35,555 -36,687 — 26,055 -28,682 -30,586 -28,964 -23,659 -26,864 -29,216 -19,031 -4,376 -4,136 — 3,137 -3,265 -3,225 -4,586 -3,364 -2,899 -3,376 — 5,018 -3,526 -2,868 -3,656 .Balance on current account 1,533 8,163 — 6,997 -44,286 -104,186 -112,682 — 133,249 — 143,700 — 126,548 -33,586 -36,466 -34,327 -38,820 -39,912 -30,641 -32,046 -33,485 -32,340 -28,877 -30.390 -32,084 — 22,687 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $20.7 billion in the third quarter of 1989, in contrast to a decrease of $27.2 billion in the second quarter. Liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, increased $25.7 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $21.4 billion in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 20 -20 -20 -40 -40 1989 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOLIRCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as notedl U.S. assets abroad, net [increase/eapit Period Total 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 U.S. official reserve assets 4 5 Other U.S. Government assets Foreign assets in the U.S., net [increase /capital inflow (-f-)] 4 ] U.S. pnvate assets Foreign official assets Other foreign assets 58,112 83,032 93,746 84,869 102,621 130,012 221,605 218,039 219,299 15,497 4,960 3,593 5,845 3,140 -1,083 35,594 45,193 38,882 42,615 78,072 90,154 79,023 99,481 131,096 186,011 172,847 180,418 Total Statistical discrepancy Allocations of special drawing rights (SDKs) Total (sum of the items witli sign reversed) Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy U.S. official reserve assets, net 5 (unadjusted, imii oi period) -86,118 -110,951 -121,153 -49,777 -22,304 -32,628 -99,665 -76,218 -82,110 -8,155 -5,175 -4,965 -1,196 -3,131 -3,858 312 9,149 -3,566 III IV -26,078 -33,422 280 132 — 1,565 11 — 24,793 -33.565 69,927 62,339 15.785 1,251 54,142 61,088 -10,263 7,549 -4,669 4,463 48,087 48,51 1 1987: I IT Ill IV 8,759 -22,632 -25,976 -36,370 1,956 3,419 32 3,742 40 -195 308 843 6,763 -25,856 -26,316 -40,955 33,381 51,134 73,575 59,949 14,040 10,329 753 20,070 19,341 40.805 72,822 39,879 -7.813 10,318 -7,687 7,062 3,895 -2,559 — 4,501 3,166 48,824 45.140 45,070 45,798 1988: I 11 Ill IV 4,540 — 16,119 -37,886 -32,648 1,503 39 -7,380 2,272 -1,490 -885 1,961 3,413 4,528 -15,273 -32,467 -38,332 27,027 65,334 46.179 80,759 24,63! 5,895 — 2,234 10,589 2,396 59,438 48,413 70,170 479 -15,729 24,047 — 19^434 3,843 -3,714 -4,556 4,431 43,186 41,028 47,788 47,802 1989: 1 II III".... -31,318 377 — 47,156 -4,000 -12,095 -5,996 1,049 -309 644 93 367 12,781 -41,804 60,007 -1,789 72,482 7,^78 -5.201 11,246 52,529 3.412 61 233 1,702 33,496 -2,638 4,127 -2,31! -5,115 49,854 60.502 68,418 1986: -5,162 -72,802 -5,097 -100,679 — 6,131 -110,058 -5,006 -43.576 -5.489 -13,685 — 2,821 -25,950 -2,024 — 97,954 997 -86,363 -81,543 2,999 Department of 1,152 1,093 26,756 30,074 33,958 33,747 34,934 43,186 48,511 45,798 47,802 25,322 18,663 34,404 9 194 '3 869 15,298 11,308 1,878 — 10,641 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING page Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income .-... Disposition of Personal Income '.... Farm Income Corporate Profits ; Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Employment Cost Index—Private Industry Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base Bank Loans and Securities Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Consumer Installment Credit Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: -° Preliminary. r Revised. Corrected. ... Not available (also, not applicable). NSA not seasonally adjusted. c For sale by ;,hc Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.O. 20402. Price $2,25 (single copy) ($2.81 foreign). SubRi'ription price: $24.00 per year; $30.00 for foreign mailing. 38 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1990 0—27-194