Full text of Economic Indicators : February 1985
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99th Congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators FEBRUARY 1985 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1985 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) DAVID R. OBEY, Wisconsin, Chairman JAMES ABDNOR, South Dakota, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana) PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland) AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California) JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York) FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) MARJORIE S. HOLT (Maryland) DAN LUNGREN (California) OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine) SENATE WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho) MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia) ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York) LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas) WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland) SCOTT LILLY, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS WILLIAM A. NISKANEN, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—SlsT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.50 a single copy ($3.13 foreign), or by subscription at $27.00 per year ($33.75 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 u TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to revised estimates for the fourth quarter of 1984, gross national product (GNP) rose $69.6 billion or 7.8 percent, both at annual rates. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 4.9 percent (annual rate) and the implicit price deflator, 2.8 percent (annual rate). BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 4,000 4,OUU SEAS ONALLY ADJUSTED A *iNUAL RATES 3,600i ^L 3 600 ^ _ E —— — — 3,200 2,800 2,400 GNP IN :URRENT DOLL ARS **~ ' . — — ^ r ^ \ 2 800 — — ^"" E — / 2,000' 2 000 — -^ 1,600 * GNP IS\ 1972 DOLLAR ^^fmf 1,600 -Ou-^*~*~ ^ I 1 I 1,200: 1976 \ \ \ 1977 I \ 1978 \ ! 1 1 I I l i i i 1980 1981 1979 1 1 ! 1982 SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE \ \ \ \ 1983 \ 1,200 \ 1984 COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 r 1982: TH IV 1983: I n m IV 1984: I n m IV Gross national product 1,326.4 1,434.2 1,549.2 1,718.0 1,918.3 2,163.9 2,417.8 2,631.7 2,957.8 3,069.3 3,304.8 3,664.2 3,080.1 3,109.6 3,173.8 3,267.0 3,346.6 3,431.7 3,553.3 3,644.7 3,694.6 3,764.2 Personal consumption expenditures 812.0 888.1 976.4 1,084.3 1,204.4 1,346.5 1,507.2 1,668.1 1,849.1 1,984.9 2,155.9 2,342.0 2,001.3 2,046.1 2,070.4 2,141.6 2,181.4 2,230.2 2,276.5 2,332.7 2,361.4 2,397.4 Gross private domestic investment 229.8 228.7 206.1 257.9 324.1 386.6 423.0 401.9 484.2 414.9 471.6 637.0 415.9 376.2 405.0 449.6 491.9 540.0 623.8 627.0 662.8 634.3 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Goveniment purchtises of goo ds and sem ces Exports ar d imports of goods and services Final Federal Net exports 14.2 13.4 26.8 13.8 -4.0 -1.1 13.2 23.9 28.0 19.0 8.3 -62.5 6.6 6.3 19.6 -6.5 -16.4 -29.8 -51.5 -58.7 -90.6 49.2 Exports 109.6 146.2 154.9 170.9 182.7 218.7 281.4 338.8 369.9 348.4 336.2 364.8 346.3 321.7 328.5 328.1 342.0 346.1 358.9 362.4 368.6 369.4 Imports 95.4 132.8 128.1 157.1 186.7 219.8 268.1 314.8 341.9 329.4 344.4 427.3 339.7 315.4 308.9 334.5 358.4 375.9 410.4 421.1 459.3 418.5 Total 270.4 304.1 339.9 362.1 393.8 431.9 474.4 537.8 596.5 650.5 685.5 747.7 656.3 681.0 678.8 682.2 689.8 691.4 704.4 743.7 761.0 781.7 National defense 102.0 111.0 122.7 129.2 143.4 153.6 168.3 197.0 228.9 258.9 269.7 295.6 261.6 279.4 273.0 270.5 269.2 266.3 267.6 296.4 302.0 316.3 72.8 77.0 83.0 86.0 92.8 100.3 111.8 131.2 153.7 179.5 200.5 221.4 183.3 191.0 194.7 199.3 200.9 207.2 213.4 220.8 220.3 231.3 Non- State and local defense 29.1 33.9 39.7 43.2 50.6 53.3 56.5 65.9 75.2 79.4 69.3 74.1 78.2 88.4 78.3 71.3 68.3 59.1 54.2 75.6 81.7 85.0 168.5 193.1 217.2 232.9 250.4 278.3 306.0 340.8 367.6 391.5 415.8 452.1 394.7 401.6 405.8 411.6 420.6 425.1 436.8 447.4 458.9 465.4 1,307.9 1,420.1 1,556.1 1,706.2 1,895.3 2,137.4 2,403.5 2,641.5 2,931.7 3,095.4 3,318.3 3,606.3 3,095.5 3,170.8 3,216.8 3,286.4 3,350.9 3,419.0 3,479.5 3,594.1 3,622.8 3,728.9 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS [Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Ex;>orts of go ods a nd service Q ross prival e dome Stic investinent Residential fixed business invento- National Non- 95.9 96.6 97.4 96.8 100.4 100.3 102.1 106.4 110.3 117.0 116.2 122.5 68.3 66.9 66.4 64.9 65.4 65.7 67.4 70.0 73.5 79.1 84.7 89.5 27.6 29.7 31.0 31.8 35.0 34.7 34.8 36.4 36.7 37.9 31.5 33.0 157.4 163.6 167.8 168.4 168.8 174.3 176.2 177.9 176.8 175.7 175.7 179.6 1,237.1 1,234.7 1,238.4 1,290.4 ,356.4 ,422.6 ,472.2 ,479.4 ,500.9 1,490.4 1,538.3 1,615.1 -6.4 -24.6 25.7 24.1 146.6 136.7 120.9 112.6 292.8 300.6 117.2 124.8 80.6 81.9 36.6 42.9 175.7 175.8 1,483.5 1,503.4 46.2 53.4 57.2 57.8 -16.5 -6.1 22.9 13.6 11.9 138.2 137.0 141.6 141.0 115.3 123.4 129.7 139.1 294.3 292.4 292.0 288.8 119.0 117.2 115.6 113.0 83.3 84.8 84.4 86.3 35.7 32.3 31.2 26.7 175.3 175.2 176.4 175.8 1,507.5 1,530.9 1,549.3 1,565.4 60.6 60.8 60.1 59.3 31.6 20.3 30.6 16.8 144.9 144.7 147.4 148.2 153.2 156.2 174.4 158.4 289.5 302.1 306.1 310.8 112.2 123.2 125.0 129.6 87.1 89.6 89.1 92.4 25.2 33.6 36.0 37.1 177.3 178.9 181.1 181.2 1,579.3 1,618.5 1,614.6 1,648.0 -4.4 11.3 -10.4 -3.6 24.8 1982: m IV 1,477.1 1,478.8 964.2 976.3 163.9 161.5 36.8 40.8 1983: 1,491.0 1,524.8 1,550.2 1,572.7 982.5 1,006.2 1,015.6 1,032.4 161.6 165.3 172.6 184.5 1,610.9 1,638.8 1,645.2 1,664.8 1,044.1 1,064.2 1,065.9 1,075.4 193.3 202.9 209.5 212.7 n mr rv Total 253.3 260.3 265.2 265.2 269.2 274.6 278.3 284.3 287.0 292.7 291.9 302.1 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 ' 1984: I Total Imports 81.8 80.7 71.4 84.7 90.9 102.7 109.0 108.8 116.4 118.0 126.9 160.5 62.3 48.2 42.2 51.2 60.7 62.4 59.1 47.1 44.5 37.9 53.7 60.2 IV Exports State and local 97.3 108.5 103.5 110.1 112.9 126.7 146.2 159.1 160.2 147.6 139.5 146.3 138.1 135.7 119.3 125.6 140.3 158.3 169.9 165.8 175.0 166.9 171.0 204.6 I Net exports 15.5 27.8 32.2 25.4 22.0 24.0 37.2 50.3 43.8 29.7 12.6 -14.2 767.9 762.8 779.4 823.1 864.3 903.2 927.6 931.8 950.5 963.3 1,009.2 1,062.4 n m Final Federal Change dential fixed 1,254.3 1,246.3 1,231.6 1,298.2 1,369.7 1,438.6 1,479.4 1,475.0 1,512.2 1,480.0 1,534.7 1,639.9 1973 1974 Govermnent purch ases of good s and services 17.2 11.6 -6.7 7.8 13.3 16.0 7.3 .9 7.2 2.0 -8.3 -11.4 -27.0 -10.2 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1972—100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Personal c onsumption expenditures Period 1973 1974 1975 national product Total Durable goods Gross arivate domestic investment Nondurable goods Services Exports anc imports of goods anc services Gove mment pure lases of goo ds and sernces Federal Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed Exports Imports Total National defense Nondefense State and local 107.0 118.0 129.4 138.3 105.75 115.08 125.79 132.34 140.05 150.42 163.42 178.42 195.60 207.38 215.34 223.44 105.7 116.4 125.3 131.7 139.3 149.1 162.5 179.0 194.5 206.0 213.6 220.4 101.7 108.2 117.3 123.9 129.2 136.4 145.0 156.2 167.1 174.5 177.7 179.0 108.5 123.4 132.5 137.2 143.6 153.4 169.9 188.1 202.5 208.7 213.0 217.7 104.7 113.0 121.6 129.6 139.3 150.0 162.3 178.8 196.8 213.6 226.0 237.6 103.8 115.4 132.2 138.6 146.3 157.2 170.8 186.2 202.2 209.5 206.4 207.9 109.1 120.3 131.0 140.7 158.0 178.3 200.5 218.5 234.1 241.3 246.4 255.5 112.7 134.8 149.6 155.3 161.9 172.6 192.5 212.9 230.9 236.0 241.0 249.3 116.7 164.6 179.6 185.6 205.5 214.1 246.1 289.4 293.8 279.3 271.5 266.2 106.3 114.9 126.0 133.5 142.8 153.1 164.8 185.2 207.6 221.4 232.1 241.3 106.6 115.1 124.9 132.4 141.9 152.7 166.0 187.5 209.1 227.0 236.6 247.3 105.6 114.2 128.2 135.7 144.6 153.8 162.5 180.8 204.7 209.8 220.0 224.9 148.4 159.7 173.7 191.5 208.0 222.8 236.7 251.7 1982: m IV 208.53 210.27 207.6 209.6 175.5 175.6 209.6 210.5 215.6 219.4 208.8 210.1 241.8 240.0 236.2 235.3 280.9 280.1 223.2 223.8 227.4 233.1 213.9 206.2 224.7 228.4 1983: I 212.87 214.25 215.89 218.21 210.7 212.8 214.8 216.0 176.6 176.8 178.0 179.3 210.2 212.6 214.5 214.8 221.9 224.9 227.3 229.7 207.1 205.2 205.1 208.1 245.2 243.0 248.7 248.3 237.7 239.4 241.5 245.4 267.8 271.0 276.3 270.3 229.4 230.8 232.8 235.6 233.7 234.8 237.9 240.0 219.4 220.3 219.1 221.4 231.5 234.9 238.4 241.8 220.58 222.40 224.57 226.10 218.0 219.2 221.5 222.9 179.0 179.5 179.2 178.4 217.4 216.4 217.8 219.3 232.6 236.0 239.7 242.2 206.3 207.4 208.0 209.6 249.4 255.9 258.6 258.3 247.7 250.4 250.1 249.2 267.9 269.6 263.3 264.2 238.5 240.6 241.5 244.1 245.1 246.4 247.4 250.2 215.5 225.1 227.1 228.9 246.4 250.0 253.5 256.8 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 T n m IV 1984: I n m IV r Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Personal sonsumption ejtpenditures Gro ss national prc)duct Period Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars 11.8 8.1 8.0 10.9 11.7 12.8 11.7 8.8 12.4 3.8 7.7 10.9 2.5 3.9 8.5 12.3 10.1 10.6 14.9 10.7 5.6 7.8 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 T 1982: HI IV 1983: I n m IV 1984: I n m IV * 5.8 -.6 -1.2 5.4 5.5 5.0 2.8 -.3 2.5 -2.1 3.7 6.9 .9 .5 3.3 9.4 6.8 5.9 10.1 7.1 1.6 4.9 Implicit price deflator Chain price index 5.8 8.8 9.3 5.2 5.8 7.4 8.6 9.2 9.6 6.0 3.8 3.8 3.4 3.4 5.0 2.6 3.1 4.4 4.4 3.3 3.9 2.8 Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) 6.0 9.4 9.1 5.8 6.3 7.8 9.5 9.8 9.7 6.4 4.2 4.2 5.8 4.6 3.3 4.1 4.7 3.9 5.0 4.3 4.0 3.4 6.0 9.1 9.2 5.7 6.1 7.6 8.9 8.9 9.5 6.6 4.3 4.0 5.8 5.0 3.4 4.3 4.4 4.1 4.9 4.1 3.9 3.4 NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter. 11.8 11.9 10.7 10.9 7.3 8.6 8.6 8.5 9.3 4.8 14.5 7.6 9.2 8.6 10.2 5.0 6.2 Chain price index 5.7 10.1 7.6 5.1 5.8 7.0 9.0 10.2 8.7 5.9 3.7 3.2 6.1 4.0 2.2 4.1 3.7 2.3 3.8 2.2 4.3 2.6 4.2 -.7 2.2 5.6 5.0 4.5 2.7 .5 2.0 1.4 4.8 5.3 2.2 5.1 2.6 10.0 3.8 6.8 4.6 7.9 .7 3.6 10.2 9.4 9.9 11.0 11.1 Fixed- Implicit price deflator Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars weighted price index (1972 weights) 6.1 10.4 7.7 5.3 6.0 7.3 9.3 10.7 9.2 6.1 4.1 3.9 6.3 5.0 2.5 4.4 3.7 3.6 4.7 3.3 3.9 3.7 6.1 10.4 7.8 5.3 6.2 7.4 9.7 11.1 9.4 5.9 4.0 3.9 6.6 4.9 1.9 4.5 3.9 3.4 4.9 3.1 4.0 3.8 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Cun ent-dollar COst and profit per unit of output (dolla rs)' Gross d omestic product of r onflnancial corporate business (billions of dollars) Period Current dollars 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 T 1982: m rv 1983: I n m rv 1984: I n m 1 lars. 1972 dollars Total cost and profit z Capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment 759.4 818.9 890.0 1,001.3 1,128.4 1,276.2 1,416.8 1,540.7 1,739.2 1,778.4 1,917.7 2,153.7 731.9 708.2 694.2 745.5 795.8 846.3 876.1 859.5 883.3 857.4 896.4 977.6 1.038 1.156 1.282 1.343 1.418 1.508 1.617 1.793 1.969 2.074 2.139 2.203 0.093 .112 1,787.8 1,772.4 1,812.3 1,887.6 1,956.6 2,014.2 2,084.2 2,146.9 2,168.9 858.5 846.5 855.7 886.2 912.4 931.1 956.9 979.5 980.0 2.083 2.094 2.118 2.130 2.144 2.163 2.178 2.192 2.213 .247 .254 .250 .243 .241 .239 .236 .234 .238 .137 .141 .145 .155 .171 .198 .217 .245 .243 .237 Indirect business taxes 3 0.031 .042 .044 .040 .040 .044 .050 .065 .076 .084 .077 .082 0.107 .090 .124 .144 .149 .172 .201 .210 .219 .220 0.692 .786 .837 .878 .928 .998 1.094 1.218 1.307 1.397 1.409 1.425 .163 .168 .154 .140 .167 .138 .191 .241 .211 .217 .218 .222 .220 .219 .217 .218 .221 1.404 1.419 1.421 1.408 1.400 1.408 1.415 1.414 1.434 .080 .081 .079 .076 .077 .077 .078 .081 .084 .141 .123 .151 .182 .206 .221 .233 .246 .236 0.114 .127 .140 .141 .141 .144 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. Net interest Total Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1972 dol- 2 Compensation of employ- Corporate profits with inventory valuation imd capital cc nsumption adjustments 9 Profits tax liability Profits after tax* o t Compen- per hour of all employees (1972 dollars) sation per hour of all employees (dollars) 7.849 .071 .075 .079 .079 .078 .072 .052 .065 .073 0.053 .030 .065 .073 .088 .089 .075 .062 .095 .086 .126 .168 7.555 7.774 7.998 8.141 8.209 8.194 8.118 8.271 8.357 8.634 8.831 5.429 5.937 6.507 7.021 7.555 8.191 8.961 9.884 10.811 11.677 12.166 12.585 .052 .043 .049 .064 .073 .072 .078 .079 .066 .089 .080 .102 .118 .133 .149 .155 .167 .171 8.406 8.398 8.464 8.617 8.728 8.725 8.801 8.863 8.807 11.801 11.913 12.027 12.131 12.224 12.283 12.454 12.528 12.628 0.055 .059 .059 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. 4 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period National income Compensation of employees1 Proprietors' income with inventory v lluation and capital co nsumption adjust ments Farm 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 r 1982: m IV 1983: I n m IV 1984: I n mr 801.3 877.5 1,086.2 1,160.7 1,239.4 1,379.2 931.4 1,036.3 1,152.1 1,301.1 1,458.1 1,599.6 1,765.4 1,864.2 1,984.9 2,173.0 1,876.3 1,888.7 1,921.3 1,962.4 2,000.7 2,055.4 2,113.4 2,159.2 2,191.9 2,227.5 1,550.5 1,760.3 1,966.7 2,116.6 2,363.8 2,446.8 2,646.7 2,961.9 2,452.4 2,468.6 2,527.0 2,609.0 2,684.4 2,766.5 2,873.5 2,944.8 2,984.9 IV 1 Nonfarm 61.0 62.2 65.4 75.0 84.8 92.2 100.2 95.6 93.7 89.2 107.9 126.2 89.5 92.1 98.3 106.8 112.1 114.6 122.5 126.3 126.4 129.7 32.8 26.5 24.6 19.1 19.1 26.3 31.9 21.8 31.5 21.8 13.8 28.0 12.7 25.4 16.4 10.1 11.2 17.3 32.5 23.4 27.3 28.6 Corporate p rofits with inv entory valuatio n and capital sonsumption adjustments Eental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Profits wdth inventory palliation adjustmt nt and withou t capital cons imption adjust ment Capital consump- Total 22.6 23.5 108.3 94.9 23.0 23.5 24.8 26.6 27.9 31.5 42.3 51.5 58.3 62.5 52.9 57.0 57.7 59.0 56.2 60.4 61.0 62.0 63.0 63.9 110.5 138.1 167.3 192.4 194.8 175.4 189.9 159.1 225.2 287.1 163.3 151.6 179.1 216.7 245.0 260.0 277.4 291.1 282.8 Inventory valuation adjustment Profits Total 105.6 96.7 120.6 151.6 178.5 205.1 209.6 191.7 197.6 156.0 192.0 231.5 158.8 143.2 157.3 186.1 208.1 216.3 229.8 238.7 224.5 adjustment -20.0 -40.0 -11.6 -14.7 -16.2 -24.0 -43.1 -42.9 -23.6 -9.5 -11.2 5.9 -10.1 -12.6 -4.3 -12.1 -19.3 -9.2 -13.5 -7.3 2 -2.8 125.6 136.7 132.1 166.3 194.7 229.1 252.7 234.6 221.2 165.5 203.2 237.5 168.9 155.8 161.7 198.2 227.4 225.5 243.3 246.0 224.8 Net interest 2.7 -1.8 -10.1 -13.5 -11.3 -12.7 -14.8 -16.3 -7.6 3.1 33.2 55.6 4.5 8.4 21.7 30.6 36.9 43.6 47.6 52.3 58.3 64.3 60.2 76.1 84.5 87.2 102.5 121.7 153.8 192.6 241.0 260.9 256.6 285.1 257.7 253.8 254.2 254.2 259.2 258.9 266.8 282.8 293.5 297.3 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 r 1982: m IV 1983: I n m IV 1984: I n mr IV 812.0 888.1 976.4 1,084.3 1,204.4 1,346.5 1,507.2 1,668.1 1,849.1 1,984.9 2,155.9 2,342.0 2,001.3 2,046.1 2,070.4 2,141.6 2,181.4 2,230.2 2,276.5 2,332.7 2,361.4 2,397.4 Total durable goo s 123.3 121.5 132.2 156.8 178.2 200.2 213.4 214.7 235.4 245.1 279.8 318.5 244.5 255.0 259.4 276.1 284.1 299.8 310.9 320.7 317.2 325.3 Motor vehicles and parts 57.1 50.4 55.8 72.6 84.8 95.7 96.6 90.7 101.9 108.7 129.3 149.6 108.1 115.3 115.3 128.4 132.0 141.7 147.7 152.3 148.6 149.8 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Furniture and household equipment 47.1 50.6 53.5 59.1 65.7 72.8 81.8 86.3 92.3 94.4 104.1 117.0 94.5 96.6 99.1 102.4 105.2 109.8 113.0 116.6 116.8 121.7 Retail sal es of new No idurable goods Durablt goods Total personal consumption expenditures Other 19.2 20.5 22.9 25.2 27.7 31.7 35.1 37.7 41.2 42.1 46.4 51.9 41.9 43.1 45.0 45.3 46.9 48.2 50.3 51.7 51.9 53.8 Total nondurable goods 333.4 373.4 407.3 441.7 478.8 528.2 600.0 668.8 730.7 757.5 801.7 856.8 762.5 770.6 775.2 796.9 811.7 823.0 841.3 858.3 861.4 866.0 Food 172.1 193.7 213.6 230.6 249.8 275.9 311.6 345.1 373.9 392.8 416.5 443.5 396.0 400.3 406.7 413.6 420.5 425.1 433.9 442.1 448.6 449.4 Clothing and s oes 61.4 64.8 69.6 75.3 82.6 92.4 99.1 104.6 114.3 118.8 127.0 140.2 119.0 120.0 121.6 127.1 126.8 132.5 136.1 142.2 139.3 143.2 passeng er cars (millions of units) Gasoline and oil 28.6 36.6 40.4 44.0 48.1 51.2 66.6 84.8 94.6 90.4 90.0 91.4 89.9 89.6 86.7 89.5 92.1 91.7 92.0 92.8 90.0 90.9 Other 71.2 78.2 83.7 91.9 98.2 108.8 122.8 134.3 147.9 155.6 168.2 181.6 157.6 160.6 160.3 166.7 172.2 173.6 179.3 181.2 183.6 182.5 Services Domestics 355.2 393.2 437.0 485.7 547.4 618.0 693.7 784.5 883.0 982.2 1,074.4 1,166.7 994.2 1,020.6 1,035.8 1,068.6 1,085.7 1,107.5 1,124.4 1,153.7 1,182.8 1,206.1 9.6 7.4 7.0 8.5 9.0 9.2 8.2 6.6 6.2 5.8 6.8 8.0 5.6 6.0 6.0 6.9 6.9 7.4 8.2 8.3 8.0 7.4 " 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.8 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income increased $16.5 billion (annual rate) in January, following a rise of $12.0 billion in December. Wages and salaries rose $6.3 billion in January compared to a rise of $16.8 billion in December. In December and January, personal income was affected by special factors involving Federal civilian pay, military pay and retirement, cost-of-living adjustments, and tax rates, the taxable wage base, and retroactive payments for social security. Without these special factors, personal income rose $3.7 billion in January and $20.8 billion in December. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,600 3,200 3,600 3,200 TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME 2,800 2,800 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 .--f—V WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 600 OTHER INCOME 400 400 TRANSFER PAYMENTS 200 200 Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 1977 1978 1979 Illllllllll 1980 1981 1982 iI II III II II I l l l l l l l l l l Illllllllll 1983 1984 1985 ' SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Proprietor ' income 3 Period 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 r 1984: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct r r Novr Dec 1985: Jan p 1 Total personal income salary disburse- Other labor income 1 2 Farm Personal dividend income Personal interest income Transfer payments 5 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance Nonfarm personal income 6 1,265.0 1,391.2 1,540.4 1,732.7 1,951.2 2,165.3 2,429.5 2,584.6 2,744.2 3,012.8 806.4 889.9 983.2 1,106.3 1,237.6 1,356.7 1,493.1 1,568.7 1,659.2 1,803.9 64.5 75.9 89.4 102.5 114.9 128.0 140.0 155.5 173.1 195.5 24.6 19.1 19,1 26.3 31.9 21.8 31.5 21.8 13.8 28.0 65.4 75.0 84.8 92.2 100.2 95.6 93.6 89.2 107.9 126.2 23.0 23.5 24.8 26.6 27.9 31.5 42.3 51.5 58.3 62.5 29.9 36.5 39.6 45.3 50.8 56.8 64.3 66.5 70.3 77.7 123.2 132.5 152.8 179.4 218.7 266.0 331.8 366.6 376.3 434.8 178.3 194.3 207.9 223.8 250.3 297.6 337.3 376.1 405.0 416.7 50.4 55.5 61.1 69.8 81.1 88.7 104.5 111.4 119.6 132.5 1,229.1 1,359.3 1,506.5 1,689.7 1,899.3 2,119.5 2,371.2 2,532.1 2,701.1 2,955.2 2,897.4 2,923.5 2,940.6 2,968.5 2,978.8 3,006.5 3,027.7 3,045.8 3,068.3 3,081.6 3,101.6 3,113.6 1,747.6 1,755.1 1,764.6 1,785.3 1,789.8 1,804.3 1,812.4 1,816.9 1,829.1 1,830.9 1,847.2 1,864.0 186.3 188.1 189.9 191.7 193.5 195.3 196.7 198.1 199.5 201.0 202.5 203.9 30.1 36.5 30.9 25.4 21.4 23,5 26.5 27.4 28.0 29.1 28.0 28.7 120.7 122.9 123.8 125.7 126.2 127.1 126.0 126.1 127.1 129.4 129.6 130.3 61.1 60.8 61.2 61.6 62.0 62.4 62.6 62.9 63.3 63.6 63.9 64.2 74.0 75.0 76.0 76.9 77.1 77.6 78.0 78.2 79.4 79.8 80.2 80.5 396.6 403.8 411.4 418.4 425.6 432.9 441.4 449.5 457.1 459.2 460.3 460.9 410.2 410.9 412.8 414.9 414.8 415.9 417.1 419.9 418.7 422.8 425.1 417.4 129.1 129.5 130.1 131.3 131.5 132.5 133.0 133.3 134.1 134.2 135.2 136.2 2,838.3 2,857.9 2,880.5 2,913.8 2,928.1 2,953.5 2,971.6 2,988.5 3,010.2 3,022.2 3,043.1 3,054.4 3,130.1 1,870.3 205.1 26.0 130.8 64.5 81.0 460.8 437.0 145.4 3,073.5 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. 2 Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workers' injury compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Nonfarm Rental income of persons 4 4 With capital consumption adjustment. Consists mainly of soeia! insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5 6 DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable income rose again in the fourth quarter of 1984. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 2,800 DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 1,800 3,000 3,000 1984 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Persona! income Less: Personal Equals: Disposable personal tax and nontax payments Less: Personal outlays ' Equals: Personal saving Pert apita disposabk personal inc )me Per capitai personal consulnption expen :itures Current dollars Current dollars 1972 dollars 1,065.2 1,168.6 1,265.0 1,391.2 1,540.4 1,732.7 1,951.2 2,165.3 2,429.5 2,584.6 2,744.2 3,012.8 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 r. 150.7 170.2 168.9 196.8 226.4 258.7 301.0 336.5 387.7 404.1 404.2 435.2 914.5 998.3 1,096.1 1,194.4 1,314.0 1,474.0 1,650.2 1,828.9 2,041.7 2,180.5 2,340.1 2,577.7 835.5 913.2 1,001.8 1,111.9 1,236.0 1,384.6 1,553.5 1,718.7 1,904.7 2,044.5 2,222.0 2,420.8 79.0 85.1 94.3 82.5 78.0 89.4 96.7 110.2 137.4 136.0 118.1 156.8 4,315 4,667 5,075 5,477 5,965 6,621 7,331 8,032 8,874 9,385 9,977 10,891 4,080 4,009 4,051 4,158 4,280 4,441 4,512 4,487 4,561 4,555 4,670 4,940 Saving as percent of disposable personal Population (thousands) 2 income Per cent Do lars Billions of dol ars 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1972 dollars Percent change in real per capita disposable 4,972 5,468 6,048 6,695 7,326 8,037 8,543 9,192 9,895 3,623 3,566 3,609 3,774 3,924 4,057 4,121 4,092 4,131 4,146 4,303 4,489 3,831 4,152 4,521 5.7 1.0 2.6 2.9 3.8 1.6 -.6 1.6 -.1 2.5 5.8 6.9 5.9 6.1 5.9 6.0 6.7 6.2 5.0 6.1 211,939 213,898 215,981 218,086 220,289 222,629 225,106 227,694 230,068 232,351 234,542 236,682 -1.7 8.6 8.5 8.6 Seas onally adju sted annual rates HI IV 2,594.3 2,639.5 398.5 402.0 2,195.8 2,237.5 2,061.3 2,107.3 134.5 130.2 9,439 9,593 4,548 4,578 8,603 8,773 4,145 4,186 0.2 2.7 6.1 5.8 232,634 233,230 1983: I II Ill IV 2,662.8 2,714.4 2,763.3 2,836.5 401.4 411.6 395.8 407.9 2,261.4 2,302.9 2,367.4 2,428.6 2,133.4 2,206.1 2,248.4 2,300.0 128.0 96.7 119.0 128.7 9,675 9,832 10,082 10,318 4,591 4,619 4,694 4,776 8,858 9,143 9,290 9,475 4,203 4,296 4,325 4,386 1.1 2.5 6.7 7.2 5.7 4.2 5.0 5.3 233,742 234,230 234,811 235,385 1984: I II Ill IV.... 2,920.5 2,984.6 3,047.3 3,098.9 418.3 430.3 440.9 451.1 2,502.2 2,554.3 2,606.4 2,647.8 2,349.6 2,409.5 2,442.3 2,482.0 152.5 144.8 164.1 165.8 10,608 10,806 11,000 11,147 4,865 4,930 4,965 5,000 9,651 9,869 9,966 10,093 4,427 4,502 4,499 4,527 7.7 5.5 2.9 2.8 6.1 5.7 6.3 6.3 235,875 236,369 236,950 237,533 1982: 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). 2 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the fourth quarter of 1984, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income fell $4.4 billion (annual rate) and net farm income fell $4.5 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 200 160 160 120 120 80 80 60 60 40 40 NET FARM INCOME /\ \ .- -' 20 20 v ,> \i 1 10 1977 1978 i 1979 1 10 1980 198] 1982 1983 1984 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 1985 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] In come of farm ope rators from farmi ng (jross farm incom Period Total 1 Total 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1983: I n m IV 1984: I n r m TV" 1 Livestock and products Crops 102.9 108.7 127.2 150.4 150.2 167.9 161.8 151.4 95.4 96.2 112.9 131.8 140.5 142.6 144.8 138.7 46.3 47.6 59.2 68.6 67.8 49.0 48.6 53.7 63.2 72.7 69.2 70.1 69.2 153.3 147.3 148.5 156.6 144.6 138.3 143.7 128.3 169.8 165.8 176.0 171.6 134.2 138.9 147.8 140.8 V 1 f inventory changes 2 Production expenses Current dollars 1967 dollars 3 73.3 74.6 69.5 -1.5 1.1 .8 4.9 -5.5 7.9 -2.6 -11.7 82.7 88.9 99.5 118.1 128.9 136.9 139.5 135.3 20.1 19.8 27.7 32.3 21.2 31.0 22.3 16.1 7.7 5.4 70.4 68.7 67.6 70.1 74.2 69.6 76.1 58.2 -11.4 -14.4 -16.8 -4.4 135.6 135.2 134.7 135.8 17.7 12.1 13.8 20.8 6.0 4.1 4.6 6.9 73.0 70.4 69.2 72.2 61.2 68.5 78.6 68.6 139.2 141.5 141.4 141.5 30.6 24.3 34.6 30.1 10.0 7.8 11.1 9.5 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. Net fanr income Cas h marketing rece pts 3 2.2 8.1 9.8 8.2 Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index (Department of Labor). Source: Department of Agriculture, except as noted. 11.8 10.9 14.2 14.9 8.6 11.4 CORPORATE PROFITS In the third quarter of 1984, corporate profits before tax fell $21.2 $8.5 billion. billion (annual rate) and after-tax profits fell BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320 320 SEASON ALLY ADJUSTED ANN JAL RATES — — 280 280 PROFITS BE FORE — r 240 — 200 — /n 1 ^^ — *\ 240 V, "" *» s** 80 N ^--^ —r ! i i 1976 1977 ! 1 1 1978 120 ,/ Vv -""-I / UNDISTRIB LJTED 40 / V A ^:>\ J!"—-—•—'• **„ ,~ — ' \ /'"^•~ 1 1 1 160 ^** ^ — -'" -->- s''Z~- — J \. \» •" ~ ~" "" ' 200 k ~\ \ ^^ — — ^ ' ,s -' /I \ PR1 DFITS AFTER TA X _. — -" 120 \ _ V Vx X 160 f\ TAX 1 i i 1 1979 1980 X —^ "\ 80 v - — ^ PROFITS \ i 1 — ' TAX LIABILITY i 1981 40 i i \ ! ! 1 i SOURCE-. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE i i 198-4 1983 1982 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Pre fits (before t ix) with inve ntory valuati jn adjustmen t 1 P rofits after taX Do:nestic industiies Total 2 Total 105.6 96.7 120.6 151.6 178.5 205.1 209.6 191.7 197.6 156.0 192.0 231.5 92.0 80.4 107.6 137.4 163.4 185.4 179.0 161.9 173.2 133.6 167.2 207.2 1982: m 158.8 143.2 136.5 119.7 1983: I 157.3 186.1 208.1 216.3 134.9 162.4 180.6 190.8 229.8 238.7 224.5 204.1 217.5 200.2 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 r rv n m IV 1984: I n m rv 1 2 Financial 15.9 15.0 11.8 17.1 23.1 31.0 30.3 26.9 19.5 19.6 29.6 27.3 21.0 24.9 28.4 32.0 29.5 28.5 28.7 28.9 26.6 Total 3 76.0 65.4 95.8 120.3 140.3 154.4 148.6 134.9 153.7 114.0 137.6 179.9 115.5 94.8 106.5 130.4 151.1 162.3 175.4 188.6 173.6 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. Profits before tax ^onfinancial Period Manufacturing 45.5 39.0 52.6 69.2 78.3 86.9 85.6 72.9 84.9 54.5 65.2 85.8 60.4 42.4 44.9 59.3 73.8 82.9 89.8 92.3 78.3 Tax liability Total Dividends 27.0 29.9 30.8 37.4 40.8 47.0 52.7 58.6 66.5 69.2 72.9 80.5 49.6 55.2 50.7 65.1 81.2 98.9 112.4 91.2 73.5 35.6 54.5 67.0 69.0 70.2 38.1 30.6 -10.1 -12.6 71.1 71.7 73.3 75.4 31.4 51.7 69.3 65.6 -4.3 -12.1 -19.3 -9.2 77.7 79.9 81.3 83.0 72.9 70.2 60.3 -13.5 -7.3 -.2 r -2.8 sale and retail trade 13.9 12.5 21.3 22.4 26.6 26.9 27.1 23.6 31.8 25.9 33.4 45.5 24.0 24.1 25.3 33.0 35.9 39.5 40.6 47.0 46.8 3 125.6 136.7 132.1 166.3 194.7 229.1 252.7 234.6 221.2 165.5 203.2 237.5 168.9 155.8 161.7 198.2 227.4 225.5 243.3 246.0 224.8 49.0 51.6 50.6 63.8 72.7 83.2 87.6 84.8 81.1 60.7 75.8 90.0 61.9 55.0 59.1 74.8 84.7 84.5 92.7 95.8 83.1 76.6 85.1 81.5 102.5 122.0 145.9 165.1 149.8 140.0 104.8 127.4 147.5 107.0 100.8 102.6 123.4 142.6 141.1 150.6 150.2 141.7 Inventory valuation adjustment Undistributed profits Includes industries not shown separately, Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. -20.0 -40.0 -11.6 -14.7 -16.2 -24.0 -43.1 -42.9 -23.6 -9.5 -11.2 -5.9 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to revised estimates for the fourth quarter of 1984, business fixed investment rose $10.2 billion (annual rate) and residential investment outlays fell $2.2 billion. There was a $35.3 billion increase in inventories following an increase of $71.8 billion in the third quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 700 700 SEASONA UY ADJUSTED ANNU M RATES — 600 j GROS S PRIVATE DO/AESTIC INVESTMENT — A 500 — r""^P. 400 _ -*S — 300 -— ' 200 NONRESIDEN TIAL^' FIXED INVESTA,\ENT y{^^ ^ *•** Vi 500 / ,'"" 400 ' s *^«.^^ ^ *.' 300 ^--'~' — ^ 200 ** RESIDENTIAL Fl <ED INVESTME MT ' -••" 100 "—• 100 «— """*" «""*** ,' 1 1 1976 CHANGE N BUSINESS / INVEh•ITORIES \ V ^ \ \.- *N_--'" -100 600 '" V ^^ r^ X- \ 1 \ \ 1978 1977 1 I I 1979 1 1 1 1 1980 1 * ^ \*""'' ,** 1 1 i 1981 /\x\_ 1 1 1 1 1983 1982 1 1 -100 1984 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 229.8 228.7 206.1 257.9 324.1 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 r. 1982: m IV 386.6 423.0 1983: 405.0 449.6 1984: I 401.9 484.2 414.9 471.6 637.0 415.9 376.2 Total 143.3 156.6 157.7 174.1 205.2 248.9 290.2 308.8 353.9 349.6 352.9 425.3 342.2 339.3 IV 540.0 334.6 339.3 353.9 383.9 I 623.8 627.0 662.8 634.3 398.8 420.8 435.7 445.9 n m n mr rv . 491.9 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Structures 51.0 55.9 55.4 58.8 64.4 78.7 98.3 110.9 135.3 142.1 129.7 150.5 138.4 138.4 130.4 125.6 126.2 136.6 142.2 150.0 151.4 158.3 Producers' durable equipment 92.3 100.7 102.3 115.3 140.8 170.2 191.9 197.9 218.6 207.5 223.2 274.8 203.8 201.0 204.2 213.6 227.8 247.3 256.7 270.7 284.2 287.7 Change ir business mven .ones Residential fixed investment Nonresic ential fixed im estment private domestic investment Total 68.0 57.9 55.3 72.0 95.8 111.2 118.6 102.9 104.3 91.4 132.2 153.8 89.0 97.9 113.3 129.8 142.3 143.4 151.2 155.6 155.3 153.1 Nonfarm structures 65.6 54.8 52.4 68.8 92.0 107.0 114.0 98.1 99.8 86.6 127.6 148.7 84.5 92.5 108.9 125.3 137.7 138.7 146.4 150.5 150.1 147.9 Farm structures 0.7 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.5 1.0 1.1 Producers durable equipment 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.6 4.0 1.3 2.1 3.3 3.3 1.0 .9 .9 .9 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.8 .9 1.0 1.2 1.0 3.9 4.1 4.0 4.1 Total 18.5 14.1 6.9 11.8 23.0 26.5 14.3 9.8 26.0 26.1 -13.5 57.9 15.3 -61.1 -42.9 -19.4 4.3 12.7 73.8 50.6 71.8 35.3 Nonfarm 15.2 16.0 10.5 13.9 21.9 25.4 8.6 4.5 18.2 24.0 -3.1 49.3 -11.1 -54.3 32.6 -5.4 11.6 14.1 60.6 47.0 63.7 25.9 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT The recent revision by the Department of Commerce of data on business spending for new plant and equipment shows that business spent more from 1977 1947, to 1983 than was previously reported. (The series was revised back to but the largest revisions were for 1977-83.) From 1977 to 1983, the average annual rate of increase was 8.7 percent, compared with a 7.5 percent annual rate under the old series. (Since revised data for 1984 will not be available until April, the chart here shows quarterly data on the new basis through 1983 only and on the old basis through second quarter 1985, as reported in the October-November 1984 survey.) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 400 400 300 - 300 200 200 40 1985 1977 _!/ SURVEYED Q U A R T E R L Y J/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMSC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Industries surveyed c uarterly Period All industries 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1982: I II III... IV... 1983: I II III... IV ... Addenda No nmanufactui ing It anufacturin g Total Durable goods 184.82 217.76 254.96 282.80 315.22 310.58 304.78 67.48 78.58 95.92 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 32.77 39.46 48.50 55.36 322.72 316.33 305.39 297.87 127.37 123.84 118.48 113.04 58.14 289.68 294.76 309.25 325.45 111.62 112.70 116.75 123.74 59.81 55.35 53.08 able goods Total ! 34.71 39.13 47.42 56.96 66.73 65.33 117.34 139.18 159.04 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 63.12 57.40 54.72 69.23 66.44 63.76 51.14 61.90 50.88 49.73 54.15 60.74 62.97 62.59 57.56 66.19 Commercial and other Transportation Public utilities 9.81 11.22 12.81 15.99 21.39 20.05 12.20 13.36 16.05 16.60 15.84 14.79 15.19 13.97 27.83 31.50 35.63 37.74 41.21 45.43 44.96 67.51 83.09 94.56 100.14 110.24 109.63 114.45 23.74 Mining Total nonbusiness 2 208.15 245.34 284.94 314.47 349.26 347.47 343.35 No nmanufactu ing Manufacturing 67.48 78.58 95.92 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 Total Surveyed quarterly Surveyed annually 3 140.67 166.76 189.02 202.15 222.72 226.79 227.15 117.34 139.18 159.04 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 23.33 27.58 29.98 195.35 192.49 186.91 184.83 21.65 18.34 16.45 15.36 14.98 14.14 14.69 44.02 45.04 46.19 46.46 112.22 110.83 108.24 107.24 127.37 123.84 118.48 113.04 195.35 192.49 186.91 184.83 178.06 182.06 192.51 201.71 14.94 13.90 15.66 16.27 12.85 13,55 14.20 15.28 44.78 44.46 44.77 45.86 105.50 110.15 117.88 124.30 111.62 112.70 116.75 123.74 178.06 182.06 192.51 201.71 1 Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and real estate, which, effective with the April-May 1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ("nonmanuiacturing surveyed annually") for data for these industries. "2"A1! industries" plus the part of nonmanuiacturing that is surveyed annually. 3 Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; 10 vised beginning 1947. Sec Survey of Current Business, February 1985. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 31.68 34.04 36.89 38.56 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE Seasonally adjusted civilian employment rose 118,000 in January and unemployment rose 293,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 116 MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 116 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 112 112 108 108 104 104 100 100 CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT 96 96 92 92 12 12 8 8 UNEMPLOYMENT 4 1 I I I I I I II I I 1977 1979 1978 1980 1981 4 1982 1983 1984 1985 "16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted] Noninstitutional population including resident Armed Forces NSA T Labor torce Employment including resident Armed Forces Armed Forces NSA resident Armed Forces 166,460 169,349 171,775 173,939 175,891 178,080 1,597 1,604 1,645 1,668 1,676 1,697 106,559 108,544 110,315 111,872 113,226 115,241 100,421 100,907 102,042 101,194 102,510 1984: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June.... July Aug Sept .... Oct Nov Dec 177,219 177,363 177,510 177,662 177,813 177,974 178,138 178,295 178,483 178,661 178,834 179,004 1,686 1,684 1,686 1,693 1,690 1,690 1,698 1,712 1,720 1,705 1,699 1,698 114,006 114,408 114,592 114,895 115,412 115,309 115,566 115,341 115,484 115,721 115,773 116,162 1985: Jan 179,081 1,697 116,572 Period 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1 Nonagricultural Civilian labor force Total Agricultural Total Part-time for economic reasons 1 Total 15 weeks and over Labor rorce partici] ation rate (pe rcent) Total 2 Civilian 3 63.7 63.8 63.9 64.0 64.0 64.4 3,347 3,364 3,368 3,401 95,477 95,938 97,030 3,373 4,064 4,499 6,137 7,637 8,273 1,241 1,871 2,285 106,702 110,204 111,550 113,544 98,824 99,303 100,397 99,526 100,834 105,005 96,125 3,383 97,450 3,321 101,685 5,852 5,997 5,512 10,678 10,717 8,539 3,485 4,210 2,737 64.0 64.1 64.2 64.3 64.4 64.7 104,980 105,572 105,809 106,095 106,852 107,081 107,075 106,860 107,114 107,354 107,631 107,971 112,320 112,724 112,906 113,202 113,722 113,619 113,868 113,629 113,764 114,016 114,074 114,464 103,294 103,888 104,123 104,402 105,162 105,391 105,377 105,148 105,394 105,649 105,932 106,273 3,294 3,364 3,305 3,379 3,367 3,368 3,333 3,264 3,319 3,169 3,334 3,385 100,000 100,524 100,818 101,023 101,795 102,023 102,044 101,884 102,075 102,480 102,598 102,888 5,719 5,697 5,465 5,520 5,377 5,549 5,482 5,384 5,449 5,483 5,413 5,596 9,026 8,836 8,783 8,800 8,560 8,228 8,491 8,481 8,370 8,367 8,142 8,191 3,201 3,002 2,894 2,842 2,833 2,630 2,672 2,621 2,605 2,527 2,428 2,374 64.3 64.5 64.6 64.7 64.9 64.8 64.9 64.7 64.7 64.8 64.7 64.9 64.0 64.2 64.2 64.3 64.6 64.5 64.5 64.3 64.4 64.4 64.4 64.6 108,088 114,875 106,391 3,320 103,071 5,389 8,484 2,243 65.1 64.8 104,962 106,940 108,670 Persons at work. Economic reasons include alack work, material shortages, inability to find fullime work, etc. 2 Labor force as percent of nom'nstitutional population (both including resident Armed Forces). Unemplc yment Civilian ernployment "Roei ixesi- 3 Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population. NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES The seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate, which includes resident Armed Forces in the labor force, rose to 7.3 percent in January, from 7.1 percent in December. The unemployment rate for civilian workers rose to 7.4 percent, from 7.2 percent in December. PER :E NT* (SEAS ON 4.LL Y ADJ JSTE D) PER CENT* (SEAS ON ALLY ADJ JSTED 25 25 •_^"\ k .\/ */ / \ TEEh4AGER S \ \ (1 6-19) , y — / *« i*» 20 I 15 xx « t" V I / 20 3LACK ASD OTHER / -V» / -\ V / ' /' ' \_ —^\ 15 £ \ / \ , MEf v|20Y EARS A NDOV ER i r IVILIA N W ORKERS A \ 10 s s^— t< s •** 10 =-V- ^-^^ • •I.I-I.X" -*/ — f- V — :i h i l l 1981 ^s 1 WHITE 5 s~\ S—S ^^ y\v ^ "•"•'•.tarf* ,'"" ^•- > >_ < ./ y*\ s'' 0 * V- w » y ^.. ^^ WOMEN 20 YEA RS AND DVER 5 m I I I H i ll I l l l 19 32 1984 1983 UI-^EMPLOYMENT t S PE CEN T OF CIV LIAN ABOR FORC 0 JRCE: DEPARTM NTC F ||m .. . 0 iilil 19 81 1985 l l l 1 111 i 1 i i i i i1 Mil! 1982 19 33 liliiliiiii iliiiliiiii 1984 1985 IN GROUP SPECF ED. LA BOR COUNCIL OF EC ONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemp oyment Unemployment rate, all workers ' All civilian work- 5.8 7.1 7.6 9.7 9.6 7.5 4.2 5.9 6.3 1983 1984 5.8 7.0 7.5 9.5 9.5 7.4 1984: Jan... Feb ... Mar... Apr ... May... June.. July .. Aug... Sept .. Oct.... Nov... Dec... 7.9 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.4 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.2 7.2 7.0 7.1 8.0 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.5 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.9 6.6 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.2 6.3 1985: 7.3 7.4 6.3 Period 1979 1980 1981 1982 Jan ... 1 ers Men 20 years and over 8.8 8.9 6.6 Women 20 years and over By By race Both sexes 16-19 years Black a nd other White Total Black Experienced wage and salary workers Married men, spouse present elected grou ps Women who maintain families Fulltime workers Parttime workers Labor force time lost (percent) 2 5.7 6.4 6.8 8.3 8.1 6.8 16.1 17.8 19.6 23.2 22.4 18.9 5.1 6.3 6.7 8.6 8.4 6.5 11.3 13.1 14.2 17.3 17.8 14.4 12.3 14.3 15.6 18.9 19.5 15.9 5.5 6.9 7.3 9.3 9.2 7.1 2.8 4.2 4.3 6.5 6.5 4.6 8.3 9.2 10.4 11.7 12.2 10.3 5.3 6.9 7.3 9.6 9.5 7.2 8.8 8.8 9.4 10.5 10.4 9.3 6.3 7.9 8.5 11.0 10.9 8.6 7.1 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.5 6.8 7.0 6.6 6.9 6.5 6.4 19.5 19.4 19.8 19.3 19.0 18.1 18.4 18.4 19.0 18.7 17.8 18.8 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.2 15.6 15.0 15.1 15.1 14.3 13.7 14.8 14.3 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.6 17.0 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.0 15.2 16.6 15.8 15.1 15.3 15.1 15.0 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.0 6.7 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 10.7 10.8 10.8 10.5 10.0 9.8 9.8 10.3 10.1 10.4 10.8 9.6 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.2 6.7 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 6.9 6.9 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.4 10.0 9.6 9.6 9.3 9.1 8.6 8.8 9.1 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.2 8.3 6.8 18.9 6.4 13.7 14.9 6.9 4.6 10.0 7.1 9.3 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces. 2 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons a cent of potentially available labor force hours. 12 rg te (percen t of civilia n labor force in group) By sex and i go Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. . 8.2 SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In January, the percentage of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks rose, while the percentages out of work for 5-14 weeks, for 15-26 weeks, and for 27 weeks and over fell. Both the mean and the median duration of unemployment fell. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION PERCENT DISTRIBUTION 70 70 REASON FOR UNEA^PLOYMENlr DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT 1\ 60 60 t JO 3 LOSERS '> I 50 50 40 \ . LESS THAN 5 WEEKS •\,.- A - 40 r V\ 30 - 30 - REENTRAN rs ^ \^- -•' **•' \ 1 --^/ * " \f 20 20 N EW ENTRAN' X ^WS/^X^. ~~^-^^"^ 10 ~ 10 illlllliill 1981 1985 1981 s -s-~\—^ •.— •••l^"* <J** N^ oliiiiiliiiii ,-%,. "*~v'' JOB LEAVE « ii!;i!nii| 1982 Illllllilli M i l i l l l l l i M i l i l l l l l i 1983 1985 1984 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Dur ation of iinemplo]/ment Unemployment (thousands) Period P ercent di tribution i Insured unemployment, Stat e progn ms Be ason for unemployment: percent distributio a 1 Numb er of nil 15-26 weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Medi- Job losers 32.3 30.7 31.0 27.4 28.7 13.8 13.6 16.0 15.4 12.9 10.7 14.0 16.6 23.9 19.1 11.9 13.7 15.6 20.0 18.2 6.5 6.9 8.7 10.1 7.9 51.7 51.6 58.7 58.4 51.8 36.5 38.0 38.4 39.0 38.3 39.6 40.0 41.1 39.2 40.8 41.4 40.2 28.0 28.1 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.2 28.7 28.2 30.0 28.9 28.7 30.8 13.2 13.3 12.8 12.6 13.7 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.1 13.1 12.2 11.9 22.2 20.7 20.2 19.9 19.4 19.8 18.6 17.6 17.7 17.2 17.7 17.2 19.9 19.0 18.9 18.7 18.5 18.1 18.0 17.6 17.3 16.7 17.4 17.3 8.9 8.4 8.4 8.1 8.3 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.3 7.3 7.4 43.3 30.2 11.1 15.4 15.3 6.7 Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding. 2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servic< men (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RE) programs. Also includes Federal and State e: tended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program. 3 Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 43.1 41.7 36.4 33.3 39.2 Job leavers Reentrants New entrants Insured unemployment 11.7 11.2 7.9 7.7 9.6 25.2 25.4 22.3 22.5 25.6 11.4 11.9 11.1 11.3 13.0 3,350 3,047 4,061 3,396 53.5 53.9 52.5 51.4 51.2 52.1 52.5 50.1 50.2 51.3 50.5 50.5 9.0 8.9 8.8 9.0 9.5 9.9 10.0 9.9 10.1 10.0 10.6 10.4 24.4 24.7 25.1 26.1 25.6 24.2 24.8 27.2 27.0 25.9 26.4 26.8 13.1 12.5 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.8 12.8 12.9 12.7 12.8 12.5 12.2 50.8 10.4 26.4 12.4 Initial claims regular programs (unadjusted) 2 ployment benefit claims (unad- W eekly av 3rage, thousa nds 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1984: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec , 9,026 8,836 8,783 8,800 8,560 8,228 8,491 8,481 8,370 8,367 8,142 8,191 1985: Jan , 8,484 1 488 460 583 438 3,837 3,410 4,594 3,775 2,610 2,525 2,489 r 2,430 r 2,382 ' 2,365 r 2,397 r 2,356 r 2,390 r 2,425 ' 2,509 r 2,487 373 354 352 r 362 r 353 r 362 r 378 r 366 r 372 r 393 r 395 r 386 3,374 3,174 2,958 2,613 2,290 2,166 2,327 2,184 2,083 2,149 2,441 2,778 2,607 394 r r r r r r 584 489 444 401 374 352 342 322 307 289 295 305 326 Federal supplemental compensation program. NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted insured unemployment and claims data revised. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 348,000 in January. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) 100 22 90 20 ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 18 80 16 70 14 SERVICE-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 60 22 20 50 18 40 CONSTRUCTION 30 -GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 20 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1981 1982 1984 1983 1985 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thousands of wage and salary workers; 1 seasonally adjusted] Period Total nonagricultural employment Se •vice-produ( ing industn es Goods-p reducing in iustries M anufacturin g Total 2 C nn onstruction Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade GovenTjnent Finance, insurance, and real estate Services Total Federal 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 " 89,823 90,406 91,156 89,566 90,138 94,155 26,461 25,658 25,497 23,813 23,394 24,905 4,463 4,346 4,188 3,905 3,940 4,316 21,040 20,285 20,170 18,781 18,497 19,591 12,760 12,187 12,109 11,039 10,774 11,636 8,280 8,098 8,061 7,741 7,724 7,954 63,363 64,748 65,659 65,753 66,744 69,251 5,136 5,146 5,165 5,082 4,958 5,170 5,204 5,275 5,358 5,278 5,259 5,526 14,989 15,035 15,189 15,179 15,545 16,262 4,975 5,160 5,298 5,341 5,467 5,665 17,112 17,890 18,619 19,036 19,665 20,661 15,947 16,241 16,031 15,837 15,851 15,967 2,773 2,866 2,772 2,739 2,752 2,782 1984: Jan Feb Mar Apr May.... June... July.... Aug.... Sept.... Oct Nov.... Dec ".. 92,391 92,846 93,058 93,449 93,786 94,135 94,350 94,523 94,807 95,157 95,494 95,661 24,383 24,577 24,595 24,760 24,851 24,974 25,059 25,098 25,010 25,080 25,123 25,265 4,154 4,226 4,151 4,246 4,286 4,343 4,356 4,356 4,374 4,382 4,396 4,452 19,254 19,373 19,466 19,530 19,570 19,629 19,696 19,725 19,616 19,686 19,718 19,810 11,343 11,440 11,513 11,551 11,598 11,652 11,702 11,758 11,696 11,752 11,776 11,843 7,911 7,933 7,953 7,979 7,972 7,977 7,994 7,967 7,920 7,934 7,942 7,967 68,008 68,269 68,463 68,689 68,935 69,161 69,291 69,425 69,797 70,077 70,371 70,396 5,095 5,105 5,112 5,129 5,144 5,163 5,175 5,202 5,213 5,225 5,226 5,238 5,406 5,438 5,457 5,473 5,492 5,502 5,528 5,544 5,588 5,612 5,623 5,645 15,914 15,980 16,030 16,095 16,166 16,245 16,283 16,295 16,342 16,468 16,644 16,635 5,573 5,593 5,613 5,640 5,662 5,676 5,676 5,679 5,684 5,705 5,725 5,748 20,162 20,278 20,378 20,449 20,549 20,681 20,701 20,748 20,861 20,964 21,030 21,085 15,858 15,875 15,873 15,903 15,922 15,894 15,928 15,957 16,109 16,103 16,123 16,045 2,760 2,763 2,770 2,771 2,785 2,777 2,779 2,785 2,804 2,793 2,801 2,794 Jan".. 96,009 25,347 4,522 19,833 11,861 7,972 70,662 5,248 5,677 16,765 5,761 21,151 16,060 2,799 1985: 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial dis- 14 putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. * Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average gr oss hourly earn ngs LAverage weekh hours Period 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 Manufa cturing Total private nonagricultural ' Total Overtime Manufacturing $4.86 5.25 5.69 6.16 39.8 38.9 40.1 40.7 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.3 3.0 3.4 6.66 7.25 7.68 8.02 8.33 5.68 6.17 6.70 7.27 7.99 8.49 8.83 9.17 40.1 40.3 40.4 40.2 39.7 36.1 36.0 Total private nonagricultural 1 $5.22 Adjuste d hourly earain £s index2 — total private nonagnc ultural a year Percent chang e 4from earlie r 5 Ind ex, 1977 =-100 Current dollars 1977 dollars 3 Current dollars 7.2 99.0 100.0 92.9 100.0 108.2 116.8 127.3 1977 dollars 1.4 1.0 138.9 148.5 155.3 160.5 100.5 97.4 93.5 92.6 93.4 94.8 94.7 7.6 8.2 7.9 9.0 9.1 6.9 4.6 3.3 .5 3.1 -4.0 1.0 .9 1.5 -.1 1981 1982 1983 1984" 35.8 35.7 35.3 35.2 34.8 35.0 35.3 1984: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec" 35.4 35.3 35.3 35.4 35.3 35,3 35.2 35.2 35.4 35.1 35.2 35.3 40.9 40.9 40.7 41.1 40.6 40.6 40.5 40.5 40.6 40.4 40.5 40.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 8.21 8.23 8.25 8.31 8.29 8.33 8.35 8.34 8.40 8.38 8.42 8.47 9.03 9.06 9.09 9.11 9.12 9.15 9.17 9.20 9.22 9.25 9.30 9.33 158.4 158.5 159.1 159.9 159.6 160.3 160.8 160.6 161.6 161.3 162.0 163.0 94.8 94.8 95.0 r 95.3 r 94.8 r 95.1 '95.1 94.1 94.2 r 94.0 r 94.4 94.7 3.6 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 2.7 3.1 3.4 -.0 -.6 .0 .6 .1 .3 .2 -.3 -.3 -.9 -.3 -.2 1985: Jan" 35.2 40.6 3.3 8.44 9.35 162.7 94.3 2.7 -.5 r AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Percent ch ange from a year earlier, total private n >nagricultural 5 Avera *e gross weekly ea rnmgs Period Total i rivate nonagnc ultural 1 Current dollars 1976 1977 $175.45 189.00 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984" 203.70 219.91 235.10 255.20 267.26 280.70 294.05 1984: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec" 290.63 290.52 291.23 294.17 292.64 294.05 293.92 293.57 297.36 294.14 296.38 298.99 1985: Jan" 297.09 1 Manufacturing 3 Retail trade Current dollars 1977 dollars 3 288.62 318.00 330.26 354.08 373.22 $114.60 121.66 130.20 138.62 147.38 158.03 163.85 171.05 176.40 7.7 7.8 8.0 6.9 8.5 4.7 5.0 4.8 173. 82 173.65 T 173.97 r 175.41 r 173.88 ' 174.51 r 173.81 171.98 r !73.29 r !71.31 r 172. 62 173.63 369.33 370.55 369.96 374.42 370.27 371.49 371.39 372.60 374.33 373.70 376.65 379.73 451.27 456.49 442.89 453.53 455.04 457.45 451.50 454.29 457.90 451.95 458.34 456.92 175.78 175.20 176.69 176.70 176.69 177.88 176.11 175.81 177.00 175.52 177.61 178.20 5.5 6.3 5.4 6.2 4.7 4.8 4.8 5.0 4.4 2.6 3.3 3.7 172.23 379.61 457.68 176.11 2.2 189.00 189.31 183.41 172.74 170.13 168.09 171.26 173.48 r 1977 dollars Current dollars 295.65 318.69 342.99 367.78 399.26 426.82 443.42 454.73 $186.85 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing. Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index on a 1977—100 i Revised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 1978. 2 Construction $209.32 228.90 249.27 269.34 $283.73 7.3 1.5 1.2 .2 -3.1 -5.8 -1.5 -1.2 1.9 1.3 1.8 2.5 1.8 3.0 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.3 .6 -.9 — .1 .1 -1.0 4 Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places. 5 Based on seasonally unadjusted data. NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data in 1977 dollars revised beginning Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 44-362 O - 85 - 3 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output p r hour of all pe rsons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Outp u t Business sector 1 Compens ation per hoi r 3 Hours of all pers( n s 2 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit labor CO sts Real com sensation per h our 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Implic t price defla tor 6 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 69.5 71.5 75.3 84.4 69.7 71.7 75.3 84.5 69.0 71.3 75.3 82.4 69.3 71.3 74.0 81.6 19rT7=100; juarterly c ata seasorlally adjus ted 1971 1972 1973 1974 89.3 92.4 94.8 92.5 89.7 93.0 95.3 92.9 80.7 86.1 91.7 89.9 80.3 85.8 91.7 89.8 90.4 93.2 96.8 97.2 89.4 92.2 96.2 96.6 62.0 66.1 71.4 78.1 62.5 66.7 71.8 78.5 92.8 95.7 97.3 95.9 93.6 96.6 97.9 96.5 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 94.6 97.6 100.0 100.5 99.3 94.8 97.8 100.0 100.6 99.0 88.2 93.8 100.0 105.5 107.8 87.8 93.7 100.0 105.7 108.0 93.2 96.0 100.0 104.9 108.6 92.6 95.8 100.0 105.1 109.0 85.6 92.9 100.0 108.5 118.7 86.1 93.0 100.0 108.6 118.4 96.4 98.9 100.0 100.8 99.1 96.9 99.0 100.0 100.8 98.8 90.5 95.1 100.0 108.0 119.5 90.8 95.1 100.0 108.0 119.5 90.4 94,7 100.0 107.5 117.2 90.0 94.6 100.0 107.1 116.5 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 r. 98.8 100.7 100.9 103.7 107.0 98.3 99.8 100.0 103.4 106.3 106.5 109.2 106.3 111.0 120.9 106.5 108.7 105.9 111.2 120.8 107.8 108.4 105.4 107.1 112.9 108.3 109.0 106.0 107.5 113.6 131.1 155.0 161.7 168.6 130.6 143.1 154.5 162.0 168.7 96.4 95.5 97.3 98.4 98.4 96.0 95.3 97.0 98.6 98.4 132.6 142.4 153.6 156.0 157.5 132.8 143.5 154.5 156.6 158.8 128.1 140.4 147.9 152.4 157.4 128.1 140.6 148.6 153.4 158.2 102.2 103.6 104.3 104.7 101.6 103.6 104.1 104.4 106.9 110.1 112.5 114.7 106.7 110.4 112.7 115.2 104.7 106.2 107.9 109.5 105.1 106.5 108.2 110.3 160.2 161.0 161.8 164.2 160.1 161.5 162.4 164.0 99.0 98.5 97.9 98.4 99.0 98.8 98.3 r 98.3 156.8 155.4 155.1 156.8 157.6 155.9 155.9 157.1 151.0 151.7 152.7 154.2 151.9 152.7 153.8 155.2 105.7 107.0 107.2 108.2 105.2 106.6 106.3 107.0 117.8 121.0 121.5 123.2 118.0 121.0 121.3 122.8 111.4 113.0 113.4 113.8 112.3 113.6 114.1 114.7 166.7 167.5 169.3 171.1 166.5 168.0 169.5 171.0 r 157.7 156.5 158.0 158.2 158.3 157.6 159.5 159.8 155.6 156.7 158.1 159.0 156.3 157.3 159.0 160.1 1983: I II m IV 1984: I II Ill IV r.... USA r 98.6 98.2 98.3 98.5 98.4 98.4 98.4 98.5 r r Pe rcent change; quarte rly data a seasonal! y adjusted annual ra tes 1971 1972 1973 1974 3.6 3.5 2.6 -2.4 3.3 3.7 2.4 -2.5 3.0 6.6 6.6 -2.0 2.9 6.9 6.8 -2.0 -0.5 3.0 3.9 .4 -0.4 3.1 4.3 .5 6.6 6.5 8.0 9.4 6.6 6.7 7.6 9.4 2.2 3.1 1.6 -1.4 2.2 3.3 1.3 -1.4 2.9 2.9 5.3 12.1 3.1 2.8 5.0 12.2 4.4 3.4 5.5 9.5 4.5 3.0 3.8 10.2 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 2.2 3.3 2.4 .5 -1.2 2.0 3.2 2.2 .6 -1.5 -2.0 6.4 6.6 5.5 2.3 -2.2 6.7 6.7 5.7 2.2 -4.1 3.0 4.1 4.9 3.5 4.1 3.4 4.4 5.1 3.7 9.6 8.5 7.7 8.5 9.4 9.6 8.1 7.5 8.6 9.0 .5 2.6 1.2 .8 -1.7 .4 2.2 1.0 .8 -2.0 7.3 5.1 5.1 8.0 10.7 7.5 4.7 5.2 8.0 10.7 9.8 4.7 5.6 7.5 9.0 10.3 5.1 5.7 7.1 8.8 -.5 1.9 .2 2.7 3.2 7 1.5 .2 3.5 2.7 -1.2 2.5 -2.6 4.4 8.8 — 1.4 2.1 -2.6 5.0 8.6 Y .6 -2.8 -1.6 5.4 -.6 .6 -2.8 10.3 9.6 8.0 4.9 4.1 27 -2.8 -.7 1.7 1.6 -.1 11.0 7.3 7.9 1.6 1.0 11.1 1.5 5.7 10.4 9.4 8.1 4.3 4.2 1.4 1.4 9.3 9.6 5.3 3.0 3.2 10.0 9.8 5.7 3.2 3.1 2.1 5.9 2.8 1.4 4.4 8.1 2.1 1.0 4.4 12.4 9.3 7.8 6.0 14.3 8.7 9.1 2.2 6.1 6.4 6.2 1.5 5.7 6.5 8.0 4.4 2.2 2.0 6.1 5.7 3.5 2.2 4.1 r 4.0 -2.1 r -2.2 r 1.9 2.2 -3.5 -.8 4.6 1.3 -4.2 .1 3.0 4.6 1.9 2.5 4.1 4.6 2.2 2.7 3.7 2.1 -2.9 3.7 .6 3.1 -1.7 4.7 .8 3.7 2.9 3.6 2.2 2.8 2.8 4.2 2.9 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 r. 1983: I n m IV 1984: I n mr IV .... 1 4.0 4.9 .6 3.8 2.9 5.5 -1.1 2.9 11.4 11.2 1.8 5.5 10.3 10.6 .7 5.2 7.2 6.0 1.2 1.6 7.2 4.8 1.8 2.2 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars. 2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed. 4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers. 16 6.2 1.9 4.4 4.4 5 6.1 3.7 3.6 3.7 n 1.9 1.1 0 r r r 5.3 -.8 -2.0 r o r .8 -1.8 T .1 .8 r r .7 0 i .2 8.0 7.7 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production rose 0.4 percent in January following a rise of 0.5 percent in December. The index for January was 5.1 percent above its year earlier level. INDEX, 1967 = 100* (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967 = 100* (RATIO SCALE) 200 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION 180 160 140 140 120 120 /--•.. V MINING ^!OU MANUF <\CTURING PRODUCTI DN NC NDURABLE- 180 xv -•.-"•""S \ *. •• 100 f" PERCENT* 90 -MANUFA CTURING CAPACITY JTILIZATIO M RATE — •• DURABLE . \ ^ 70 / Illllllilll ^ Hl|||il||l 1981 Illllllilll Illllllilll Illllllilll 1982 1983 1984 r^*"""! 80 60 ~\"V_ J IM| 1981 1985 1982 1 /~ Hiiiiinii 1984 1983 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE F lilllllllll 1985 COUNCIL OF EC ONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Manufacturing produ ction Period Index, 1967 = 100 1967 proportion 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 r 1984: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Ocf Dec r 1985: Jan" 1 Output as percent of capacity. Percent change from year earlier Mining Total 87.95 100.00 117.8 130.5 138.2 146.1 152.5 147.0 151.0 138.6 147.6 163.4 158.5 160.0 160.8 162.1 162.8 164.4 165.9 166.0 165.0 164.4 165.0 165.9 166.6 Capacity iitilization rate, percei t (Federal Reserve series) ' Industry proc uction indexes 1967 = 100 Tot al -8.9 10.8 5.9 5.7 4.4 -3.6 2.7 -8.2 6.5 10.7 15.4 15.9 14.9 13.7 12.7 12.3 10.8 9.4 7.3 6.1 6.2 6.2 5.1 116.3 130.3 138.4 146.8 153.6 146.7 150.4 137.6 148.2 164.9 159.5 161.4 162.1 163.4 164.2 165.7 167.3 167.6 166.6 166.2 166.7 168.0 168.4 Durable 51.98 109.3 122.3 130.0 139.7 146.4 136.7 140.5 124.7 134.5 154.8 148.6 150.5 151.4 152.6 153.3 154.9 157.2 157.8 157.1 157.1 157.6 159.2 159.8 Utilities Nondurable 35.97 6.36 126.4 141.8 150.5 156.9 164.0 161.2 164.8 156.2 168.1 179.5 175.2 177.2 177.6 179.1 179.9 181.3 181.8 181.7 180.3 179.4 179.9 180.7 180.8 112.8 114.2 118.2 124.0 125.5 132.7 142.2 126.1 116.6 125.7 124.8 124.1 123.8 123.3 125.0 127.0 129.9 128.3 128.7 123.6 124.8 124.6 125.2 5.69 146.0 151.7 156.5 161.4 166.0 168.3 169.1 168.7 172.4 181.2 181.0 176.5 180.0 182.7 182.3 184.3 181.8 180.6 180.9 180.6 184.7 181.2 184.9 Manufacturing Industrial materials 72.9 79.6 82.2 73.3 81.1 84.7 86.0 79.6 79.4 71.1 75.2 81.7 80.1 80.9 81.0 81.5 81.7 82.2 82.8 82.8 82.0 81.7 81.7 82.1 82.1 82.6 85.6 87.6 80.4 80.7 70.1 75.2 82.0 80.6 81.9 82.2 82.5 82.7 82.9 83.1 83.2 82.4 81.0 80.9 80.8 80.9 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Produc ts Intern ediate proc ucts ^inal produc s C<msumer go )ds ]Equipment M Period Total Durable goods Total Nondurable goods Total Business Defense and space equipment Total Construction supplies Busi- als supplies Supplementary group: Energy total 1967 proportion 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 ' 47.82 125.1 118.2 127.6 135.9 142.2 147.2 145.3 149.5 141.5 147.1 162.8 27. SB 128.9 124.0 137.1 145.3 149.1 150.8 145.4 147.9 142.6 151.7 161.8 7.89 135.3 121.4 141.9 154.0 159.2 155.8 136.7 140.5 129.2 147.5 162.2 19.79 126.3 125.1 135.2 141.9 145.1 148.8 148.9 150.9 148.0 153.4 161.6 20.14 120.0 110.2 114.6 123.0 132.8 142.2 145.2 151.8 139.8 140.8 164.1 IS. 63 142.4 128.2 135.4 147.8 160.3 171.3 173.2 181.1 157.9 153.3 181.1 7. SI 82.4 80.0 79.8 81.3 86.5 93.4 98.2 102.7 109.4 119.9 135.6 12.89 135.3 123.1 137.2 145.1 154.1 160.5 151.9 154.4 143.3 156.6 172.5 6.42 134.5 116.3 132.6 140.6 151.7 158.0 140.9 141.9 124.3 142.5 159.0 6.47 136.0 129.7 141.7 149.5 156.5 163.1 162.8 166.7 162.1 170.7 185.9 39.29 132.4 115.5 131.7 138.6 148.3 156.4 147.6 151.6 133.7 145.2 161.2 12.23 125.5 125.5 129.1 132.9 135.4 137.9 137.7 137.4 135.7 135.9 142.3 1984: 157.5 158.0 158.6 160.2 161.1 163.1 165.2 165.1 164.6 165.2 166.4 167.7 159.5 159.4 160.2 161.4 161.7 163.0 163.8 162.5 161.6 161.6 162.9 163.6 163.4 162.5 163.1 162.2 161.4 163.6 163.7 162.6 159.6 158.7 162.1 163.7 157.9 158.2 159.1 161.1 161.8 162.7 163.9 162.4 162.4 162.7 163.2 163.5 154.9 156.1 156.4 158.5 160.3 163.3 167.0 168.7 168.9 170.1 171.2 173.4 170.7 171.9 172.1 173.5 176.5 181.1 185.5 187.6 186.4 187.3 188.4 190.9 128.3 129.5 130.1 133.2 133.1 133.5 135.9 136.8 139.5 141.1 142.3 144.1 167.8 169.0 170.2 171.0 171.6 173.5 175.8 175.1 173.0 173.4 173.2 174.6 155.5 156.6 159.1 159.6 159.5 160.9 161.9 160.9 158.2 158.6 157.2 158.9 180.1 181.3 181.3 182.3 183.5 186.1 189.5 189.1 187.6 188.0 189.1 190.2 156.6 159.4 160.4 161.5 162.0 162.9 163.5 164.0 162.8 160.4 160.5 160.7 141.6 141.4 141.9 142.8 143.3 144.5 144.0 143.0 142.8 139.8 142.5 141.2 168.8 164.7 166.9 163.8 174.3 191.4 145.7 175.0 159.3 161.3 143.5 1985: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct ' Nov ' Dec r. Jan * [1967=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Nondurable rnanufactul es Durable m mufactures Primary metals Iron and steel Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery 6.57 123.1 96.4 109.7 111.1 119.9 121.3 102.3 107.9 75.3 85.4 95.3 4.21 119.8 95.8 104.8 103.8 113.2 113.2 92.4 99.8 61.7 71.5 80.0 5.93 124.2 109.9 123.9 131.0 141.6 148.5 134.1 136.4 114.8 120.2 137.6 9.15 140.1 125.1 134.5 143.6 153.6 163.7 162.8 171.2 149.0 150.6 181.7 8.05 143.8 116.5 134.8 145.4 159.4 175.0 172.8 178.4 169.3 185.5 217.4 9.27 108.7 97.4 111.1 122.2 132.5 135.4 116.9 116.1 104.9 117.8 137.6 4.50 128.2 111.1 142.0 161.1 169.9 159.9 119.0 122.3 109.8 137.1 165.7 1.64 116.2 107.6 123.2 131.2 136.3 136.9 119.3 119.1 112.6 137.2 149.1 93.2 98.4 97.5 99.3 98.2 97.9 94.5 94.4 94.1 92.7 91.4 90.5 80.7 86.0 84.4 84.0 83.5 83.5 76.5 77.7 77.5 74.6 73.9 75.0 131.7 132.8 134.9 135.5 136.5 138.7 140.6 140.0 139.5 140.7 138.7 141.5 169.5 170.9 171.9 174.9 178.8 182.0 186.9 189.1 187.9 187.7 188.7 190.8 206.2 209.9 212.0 214.6 214.5 216.0 221.5 221.5 222.8 222.3 222.1 225.2 134.9 135.2 135.8 134.5 135.0 137.2 140.6 141.0 137.6 137.2 141.3 142.8 166.3 164.4 165.8 161.9 163.0 165.3 169.0 169.6 162.4 161.7 170.8 171.7 146.0 145.6 149.3 151.2 146.3 148.5 146.0 148.8 149.2 152.6 152.2 155.5 141.5 190.7 226.1 145.3 177.1 Total 1967 proportion 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 ' 1984: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct ' Nov r Dec ' 1985: Jan p. 91.0 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 Transp >rtation equipment Fabricated metal products Period Total Motor vehicles and parts Lumber and products Apparel products 3.31 114.3 107.6 125.7 134.2 134.2 134.4 127.0 120.4 Printing and publishing Chemicals and products 4.72 118.2 113.3 122.5 127.6 131.5 136.9 139.6 144.2 144.1 152.5 169.7 7.74 159.4 147.2 170.9 185.7 197.4 211.8 207.1 215.6 196.1 215.0 228.3 8.75 124.0 123.4 133.0 138.8 142.7 147.5 149.6 152.1 151.1 156.4 163.7 163.4 164.8 165.2 166.3 167.5 169.0 172.6 173.1 170.5 172.3 174.0 175.0 221.5 224.8 225.0 228.3 227.9 231.0 232.0 231.6 230.8 228.0 230.0 230.7 159.4 160.0 161.2 163.1 164.2 165.1 164.9 164.7 164.3 164.0 163.4 175.5 Foods NEW CONSTRUCTION [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Private Period Total new construction expenditures Constructio ft contracts Resic ential Total Commercial and industrial New housing Total ! Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1977=100) 2 Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) B illions of dollars 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 173.8 205.6 230.4 230.7 239.1 230.1 262.2 311.9 r 135.7 159.7 181.6 175.7 185.8 179.1 211.4 256.1 81.0 93.4 99.0 87.3 86.6 74.8 111.7 135.2 65.7 75.8 78.6 63.1 62.7 51.9 86.1 102.8 22.5 29.6 39.9 43.8 51.3 54.6 48.7 63.7 32.2 36.7 42.7 44.7 47.9 49.7 51.0 57.2 38.2 45.9 100.0 114.0 M21.0 48.8 55.0 53.3 51.0 50.8 55.8 * 108.0 r l!2.0 Mll.O r 137.0 149.0 Annual rates 1984: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov r Decr Jan" 1985: 300.4 309.7 308.6 316.4 315.3 314.2 318.0 318.7 317.9 316.4 318.4 324.9 248.1 255.0 254.1 261.2 257.8 258.2 261.2 260.9 261.2 260.3 262.2 267.9 137.4 141.1 136.6 138.4 136.4 137.8 138.9 137.1 135.2 132.6 131.5 133.6 919 690 756 937 Annual rates 56.0 59.6 61.0 64.9 63.0 62.2 64.1 65.8 68.5 70.0 72.2 75.2 102.3 102.4 102.7 106.4 105.0 104.6 105.0 103.2 103.4 102.5 101.7 103.0 1 Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. 2 F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971 for floor space ' ' 739 977 1,059 904 54.7 54.2 56.5 57.9 58.4 58.2 58.1 58.0 57.5 57.7 58.6 59.1 r 52.3 54.8 54.5 55.2 57.5 56.0 56.9 57.8 56.7 56.2 56.2 57.0 !49 !45 r !47 r !63 r !44 r !50 r !48 r !46 r !45 151 150 153 r r 773 899 957 r 990 r 899 r 955 r 992 r 910 r 948 1,005 1,041 974 r r NOTE.—For construction contracts, total value index revised beginning 1979; seasonally adjusted floor space revised beginning 1983. ->-,..„ hources: LJepartment oi Commerce (.bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New private housing units Units started, b} type of structur Period Total 1,987.1 2,020.3 1,745.1 1,292.2 1,084.2 1,062.2 1,703.0 1,747.2 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 * 1 unit 1,450.9 1,433.3 1,194.1 852.2 705.4 662.6 1,067.6 1,082.5 2-4 units 5 or more units 121.7 125.0 122.0 414.4 462.0 429.0 330.5 287.7 109.5 91.1 80.0 113.5 121.2 319.6 522.0 543.5 New prh ate homes Units authorized Units completed Homes sold Homes for sale at end of period 1 1,690.0 1,800.5 1,551.8 1,657.1 1,867.5 1,870.8 1,190.6 985.5 1,000.5 1,605.2 1,678.5 1,501.6 1,265.7 1,005.5 1,390.3 1,648.5 709 545 436 412 623 639 1,606 1,565 1,590 1,654 1,756 1,739 1,718 1,689 1,661 1,607 1,558 1,589 671 700 677 645 617 636 615 557 670 652 596 604 303 303 320 327 332 338 340 343 343 346 349 356 620 359 819 817 3 402 414 S98 336 272 251 300 356 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 2 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.3 5.7 Seasonal y adjusted annu al rates 1984: 1985: Jan ' Feb ' Mar '. Apr r May r June T Julv r Aug r Sept r Oct r Novr Dec r. Jan" 1,933 2,208 1,700 1,949 1,787 1,837 1,730 1,590 1,669 1,564 1,600 1,595 1,833 1,256 1,440 1,076 1,163 1,118 1,077 996 962 1,009 979 1,043 1,084 1,041 117 142 133 160 118 108 116 114 107 109 115 118 560 626 491 626 551 652 618 514 553 476 442 393 100 692 1,871 1,969 1,765 1,802 1,774 1,819 1,590 1,508 1,481 1,436 1,613 1,627 1,664 5.6 5.5 6.0 6.3 1 2 Seasonally adjusted. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable with earlier data. 3 New series beginning March 1979. NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted housing starts and sales revised beginning 1982. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Censu 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturing and trade sales rose 1.0 percent in December and inventories rose $1.1 billion. According to advance data, retail sales rose 0.7 percent in January following a decline of 0.5 percent in December. BILLKDNS OF DDL LARS* (RATKD SCALE) BILLKDNS OF DDL LARS* (RATKD SCALE) 600 160 ^^» _^! 550 ^"^ 500 140 130 .---•^ MANUF>\CTURING A 1ND TRADE INVENTORY S 450 ^~ ^ " ., ES ^ i^_\--«-i -^—-^ 120 "" 110 -*- 400 ^^** • **^^ ,f RET, ML INVENTO -- ' ,** f*** + *^ _„*•' 100 ^ 350 *"-> /*' ' — ~s- .X" 90 / 300 '--^ 80 "s—+** MANUF/\CTURING ANDTR>\DE SALES - RETAIL SALES 70 — - 250 - — 60 50 — 200 iimlimi lllllilllll lllllilllll lllllilllll 1980 1982 lllllilllll 1983 1981 1984 RATK5* — 150 - 1.80 _INVENTC)RY-SALES RATIO MA NUFACTURI MG 1 60 1.40 100 lllllilllll lllllilllll |||||||||ll 1980 lllllilllll 1982 1981 iiiiiliuii 1983 1.20 AND TRADE ^X,p**^ lllllilllll * /^RETAIL K 'N->^ lllllilllll lll||llll|| 1980 1984 "^-V-^*^ \ ._ 1981 Manufact uring and tra le 1 Period lllllilllll 1982 1983 SEASONALLY ADJL STED sOURCE: DEPARTME NT OF COMMERC '""-^^*£ 1984 COUNCIL OF ECC NOMIC ADVISERS Who esale Inventory- ales ratio 4 Re tail Sales Invento- 2 Inventories Inventories 3 Sales 2 297,565 327,113 355,762 343,504 367,096 r 409 ,422 351,055 398,457 449,542 491,431 523,623 505,546 514,336 566,110 55,987 66,117 78,680 92,658 100,673 94,765 98,649 111,972 72,311 85,568 98,008 111,792 115,854 115,563 118,067 129,070 60,435 67,242 74,948 80,064 86,960 89,547 97,831 107,833 395,682 514,336 106,892 118,067 102,438 35,532 66,906 135,843 63,447 401,133 398,815 401,905 405,880 412,725 414,124 411,410 411,176 410,505 410,621 414,523 r 418,814 518,062 527,216 532,766 541,060 545,912 546,834 551,366 556,519 560,430 563,810 r 565,022 566,110 110,125 108,328 109,553 111,043 115,112 114,401 113,310 112,564 112,114 111,367 112,148 113,455 119,201 120,411 121,477 123,785 124,368 123,994 126,227 126,676 128,205 128,723 129,996 129,070 106,602 105,482 103,873 107,505 108,237 109,322 107,442 106,606 108,240 108,733 110,397 109,872 37,127 36,909 35,306 37,436 37,912 38,687 37,452 36,781 37,046 38,413 39,158 38,873 69,475 68,573 68,567 70,069 70,325 70,635 69,990 69,825 71,194 70,320 71,239 70,999 137,977 142,731 143,910 146,883 146,951 145,359 145,120 146,318 147,040 148,661 r 149,193 151,626 63,749 66,513 66,946 69,010 68,277 66,896 66,141 66,602 67,458 68,330 r 68,946 70,733 110,686 39,857 70,829 Durable Total goods stores Nondurable goods stores Total Durable goods stores 3 Nondurable goods stores Manufacturing Ketail Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984" 1983: Dec 1984: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov" Dec" 1985: Jan 5 1 2 3 229,624 260,263 See page 21 for manufacturing. Monthly average for year and total for month. Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. 20,724 23,211 25,179 24,365 26,306 27,041 32,095 37,614 39,711 44,031 49,770 55,699 60,654 62,506 65,735 70,220 89,530 102,504 110,592 115,550 125,710 125,384 135,843 151,626 43,135 49,858 53,413 53,952 58,559 56,748 63,447 70,733 46,395 52,646 57,179 61,598 67,151 68,636 72,396 80,893 1.46 1.44 1.43 1.45 1.43 1.50 1.37 1.33 1.40 1.43 1.44 1.41 1.39 1.39 1.33 1.35 72,396 1.30 1.33 74,228 76,218 76,964 77,873 78,674 78,463 78,979 79,716 79,582 80,331 r 80,247 80,893 1.29 1.32 1.33 1.33 1.32 1.32 1.34 1.35 1.37 1.37 1.36 1.35 1.29 1.35 1.39 1.37 1.36 1.33 1.35 1.37 1.36 1.37 1.35 1.38 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month. 5 Preliminary; not charted. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 20 MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In January, manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and new orders fell while unfilled orders were BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 240 J60 320 200 INVENT ORIFS 280 _ 160 unchanged. =j 1 -^~~~ —^ 240 TOTAL 120 — "~ ..-"-"' 100 I D JRABLE GOC DS . '""•• 40 NON DURABLE GC 'ODS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 200 _ N E W O RDERS iiiiiliini Illiillllll Illiillllll Illiillllll 40 Illiillllll Illiillllll Illiillllll _-~~—^- _-*-- 160 = ^*-— «=» RATI D* TOTAL 2.2 DURA 3LE GOODS, INVENTC3RY-SHIPM ENTS RATIC3 PH 100 2.0 -,«^"l 80 yC.""^".' lj 1.8 NONC URABLE GO ODS / "" r-N-^ 1.6 "V 1.4 r^ Illiillllll nniiiiiii ^^ ^x 60 40 Illiillllll Illiillllll 1981 Illiillllll iniihiiii 1983 1984 1982 uiiilnin 1.2 lllllll|l|l 1985 mttlimi 1981 1982 __--—x. 1984 1983 — IIMlllll',1 1985 SEASONALLY ADJ JSTED COUNCIL OF ECC3NOMIC ADVISERS OURCE: DEPARTM NT OF COMMERC Manufa cturers' ship Tients l 1Manufacturers new orders 1 Manufa cturers' inver tories 2 Nondurable goods Manufacturers' unfilled orders 3 Manufacturers' inventory — shipments ratio " Durabl e goods Period Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Durable goods Total Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, defense M llions of do liars, seaso lally adjust ?d 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 r 1984: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec r. 1985: Jan " 1 2 3 113,202 126,905 143,936 154,391 168,129 159,193 170,617 189,616 59,267 67,848 76,060 77,550 83,872 76,859 85,126 98,804 53,935 59,057 67,876 76,841 84,257 82,334 85,491 90,812 189,214 210,385 240,942 264,089 282,059 264,599 260,426 285,414 121,601 137,825 160,451 174,552 186,053 175,009 171,571 190,823 67,613 72,560 80,491 89,537 96,006 89,590 88,855 94,591 115,032 131,546 147,403 156,161 167,761 157,389 173,433 191,699 61,082 72,339 79,451 79,360 83,562 75,129 87,806 100,940 15,291 19,458 23,231 23,259 24,050 20,681 22,764 26,959 53,950 59,207 67,953 76,801 84,199 82,260 85,627 90,759 203,475 259,755 301,982 323,312 318,794 296,147 330,122 355,184 1.61 1.57 1.57 1.66 1.64 1.73 1.52 1.45 184,406 185,005 188,479 187,332 189,376 190,401 190,658 192,006 190,151 190,521 191,978 195,487 95,283 96,297 96,990 95,697 97,944 99,042 98,390 101,035 98,943 100,427 101,778 103,681 89,123 88,708 91,489 91,635 91,432 91,359 92,268 90,971 91,208 90,094 90,200 91,806 260,884 264,074 267,379 270,392 274,593 277,481 280,019 283,525 285,185 286,426 285,833 285,414 171,549 173,203 175,751 177,993 180,578 182,452 184,559 187,142 188,915 190,476 190,428 190,823 89,335 90,871 91,628 92,399 94,015 95,029 95,460 96,383 96,270 95,950 95,405 94,591 188,671 191,336 196,477 189,715 193,680 190,620 194,037 192,578 189,817 185,856 194,168 193,914 99,439 102,345 105,183 98,317 102,256 99,171 101,704 102,015 98,676 96,067 104,037 101,988 25,093 27,018 26,860 25,885 28,958 28,029 27,648 26,499 27,835 25,378 27,126 26,624 89,232 88,991 91,294 91,398 91,424 91,449 92,333 90,563 91,141 89,789 90,131 91,926 334,385 340,725 348,717 351,099 355,398 355,625 358,990 359,564 359,232 354,566 356,756 355,184 1.41 1.43 1.42 1.44 1.45 1.46 1.47 1.48 1.50 1.50 1.49 1.46 192,078 103,786 88,292 284,888 191,290 93,598 192,180 103,861 23,112 88,319 355,278 1.48 Monthiv average for ^ ear and total fo r month. ShipiT ents are the sa me as sales. Book value, end of pe iod. End of period. 4 For an nual periods, r atio of weighte d average inv ntories to ave rage monthiv s n'pments; for monthiv da a, ratio of inve ntories at end 0 f month to ship merits for mon h. Source: " department of < Commerce, Bur eau of the Cen us. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In January, the producer price index for all finished goods was unchanged, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished consumer foods fell 0.6 percent, and prices of other finished consumer goods rose 0.1 percent. Prices of capital equipment rose 0.4 percent. INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 3VO INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 3i>0 — FINISHE D GOODS — CONSjUMER GOODS Fxn JDING FOODS 300 TOT/ U FINISHED 3OODS •"^1 —^.,/*^rf# 9RO ,^ \ fe?* ^,'2* '"' f\~~.. _^" '-.'-* \ /'/*/***' CAPITAL EQU PMENT •sStS 300 ^s*=zz=2 ?•*' X"s~' — '" — — CONSUMER F DODS &J <A / ' sp** ^^ /- ^r/ /•'"^fs / f^*"^**l* ' ''y^ _ f^^ X 160 TOO nn i Inn i 1 1 1 nhnn in 1 1 In in 1 III 1 1 1 1 ii 1 1977 1978 1980 1979 1 1 III ! I III 1 II 1 1 ill illl III Illl Illl 1981 liiiilnin ninlnin 1983 1982 1984 160 1985 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Fir shed goods Period 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984" 1984: Jan r. Fcb r Mar r Apr r. May r Consumer foods Total - Total Nondurable Capital equipment Total finished consumer goods Consumer g 3ods Durable Total Foods and feeds ' Other Total Foodstuffs and feedstuffs Other 189.9 207.2 226.2 239.5 253.6 259.3 261.8 273.5 177.7 190.7 213.3 247.8 273.3 285.8 290.8 294.8 174.3 186.7 211.5 250.8 276.5 287.8 291.4 294.1 152.8 166.9 183.2 206.2 2)8.6 226.7 233.1 236.6 189.3 200.0 231.3 283.9 319.6 333.6 335.3 337.4 J84.6 199.2 216.5 239.8 264.3 279.4 287.2 294.1 180.7 194.9 217.9 248.9 271.3 281.0 284.6 290.4 201.5 215.6 242.2 280.3 306.0 310.4 312.3 320.0 190.5 203.1 226.1 252.6 250.3 239.4 247.9 253.1 202.3 216.5 244.4 282.3 310.1 315.7 317.1 325.0 209.2 234.4 274.3 304.6 329.0 319.5 323.6 331.0 192.1 216.2 247.9 259.2 257.4 247.8 252.2 259.7 245.0 272.3 330.0 401.0 482.3 473.9 477.4 484.7 289.2 290.0 292.4 293.4 294.5 295.6 295.9 295.9 295.3 294.8 294.9 294.6 295.4 295.5 292.2 293.0 294.2 295.2 295.8 295.5 294.5 293.5 293.4 293.3 294.2 294.3 234.5 235.2 237.1 236.9 236.8 236.9 237.1 237.2 238.2 236.2 237.0 237.1 33,5.7 336.8 337.4 339.1 340.3 339.9 337.8 335.9 334.9 336.4 337.4 337.5 290.5 291.7 292.5 294.3 293.8 294.1 294.7 295.3 295.8 295.1 295.7 295.8 288.8 289.5 291.2 290.9 290.5 290.3 291.0 290.1 289.9 289.9 290.9 29!. 5 317.1 317.9 319.6 320.1 320.9 321.5 320.9 320.3 320.0 320.2 320.9 320.6 261.4 257.2 260.1 259.0 258.9 256.9 252.9 249.6 246,9 244.3 245.4 244.9 321.4 322.5 324.1 324.7 325.6 326.3 326.0 325.6 325.4 325.8 326.5 326.3 336.2 330.2 337.1 335.4 332.5 330.4 331.3 327.4 327.6 324.9 329.6 329.3 268.1 260.0 269.5 264.8 259.1 255.5 257.7 253.1 254.4 252.3 261.0 261.7 483.4 481.5 483.1 487.7 490.8 491.8 490.0 487.5 485.2 481.5 477.8 475.3 296.0 294.5 239.1 336.3 297.0 291.1 320.4 241.4 326.3 322.2 255.5 466.1 Oct r Nov T Dec T 292.0 292.5 Jan 292.4 274.8 291.5 291.6 291.2 291.2 291.8 291.2 291.2 291.1 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 22 Cr ude mater als 181.7 1 95.9 217.7 247.0 269.8 280.7 285.2 291.2 272.4 273.0 275.7 272.7 270.4 270.4 274.5 273.8 273.4 273.7 274.8 276.4 June r July r Augr Sept r. 1985: Total finished goods Interr lediate mi terials F nished go ods excluding consumer foo ds CONSUMER PRICES In January, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.2 percent seasonally adjusted (also 0.2 percent not seasonally adjusted). The index was 3.6 percent above its year earlier level. INDE X, 1 967=1 00 RATIO ( SCALE) INDEX, 1967 == 100 (RATIOS CALE) 340 340 UNADJUSTED 300 •i ^ ^-n _-- ^sf ALL ITEMS (^ 220 / ^ "I ^ i| mil im 140 \ \\\\ \\ Ml ! 1 1 III ll III 1 mull ii || 1 1 II ll III! 1 1977 1978 1979 1980 ii M ii n n i i ii ill inn ii ii ih mi 1982 1981 1983 1984 SEE NOTE ON TABLE ELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMEN T OF IA8OR II II ill III 1 140 1985 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] T ransportati on Hoi sing Sh< Iter Period All items 1 Food Total ' Total Renters' costs 2 NSA Rel. imp.5 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 100.0 18.7 181.5 195.4 217.4 246.8 272.4 289.1 298.4 311.1 192.2 211.4 234.5 254.6 274.6 285.7 291.7 302.9 37.7 186.5 202.8 227.6 263.3 293.5 314.7 323.1 336.5 191.1 210.4 239.7 281.7 314.7 337.0 344.8 361.7 103.0 108.6 1984: Jan r Feb r Mar '..... Apr r 305.2 306.6 307.3 308.8 309.7 310.7 311.7 313.0 314.5 315.3 315.3 315.5 299.9 302.0 301.9 301.6 301.0 301.5 302.6 304.2 304.4 305.4 305.9 307.2 329.5 331.0 331.4 333.3 334.2 335.0 336.8 338.5 340.2 340.5 341.2 341.8 352.9 353.8 355.3 357.6 358.7 359.9 362.5 364.1 366.0 367.4 368.6 370.1 316.1 307.7 342.3 371.0 May r.... June r ... July r.... Aug r.... Sept r.... Oct r Nov r .... Dec r..... 1985: Jan 1 21.8 Homeowners' costs 2 Maintenance and repairs NSA NSA Total ' New cars 8.2 5.1 21.6 3.4 102.5 107.3 ft 5 214.7 233.0 256.4 285.7 314.4 334.1 346.3 359.2 202.2 216.0 239.3 278.6 319.2 350.8 370.3 387.3 154.2 159.6 166.6 178.4 186.9 191.8 196.5 200.2 177.2 185.5 212.0 249.7 280.0 291.5 298.4 311.7 142.9 153.8 166.0 179.3 190.2 197.6 202.6 208.5 105.7 106.0 106.5 107.3 107.7 108.2 108.8 109.4 109.9 110.4 110.9 111.4 104.9 105.1 105.6 106.2 106.5 106.8 107.6 108.1 108.7 109.1 109.4 109.8 356.7 353.5 355.3 356.3 357.3 358.9 360.3 360.1 362.7 361.6 362.9 364.4 378.0 384.2 381.5 384.3 385.2 385.8 389.0 391.1 392.6 390.3 390.4 389.4 198.9 198.6 198.8 198.7 198.8 198.4 198.9 200.5 201.5 203.0 202.7 202.4 307.1 307.0 309.8 311.8 312.4 312.5 311.8 311.8 312.8 313.9 314.5 315.0 111.8 110.0 366.0 389.1 202.4 315.8 7.1 14.1 Includes items not shown separately. December 1982 = 100. Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981. 4 Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc. also included through 1982. 5 Relative importance, December 1984. NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. 2 3 Fuel and other utilities Apparel and upkeep Motor fuel 3 Medical care Energy 4 All items less food, energy, and shelter 6.3 11.5 48.0 196.3 265.6 369.1 410.9 389.4 376.4 370.7 202.4 219.4 239.7 265.9 294.5 328.7 357.3 379.5 207.3 220.4 275.9 361.1 410.0 416.1 419.3 423.6 169.5 179.1 191.5 208.3 228.1 245.6 258.4 271.2 205.8 206.6 207.5 207.6 207.1 207.4 208.2 209.1 210.2 210.8 210.6 210.9 377.1 371.3 376.1 378.7 375.8 371.8 365.2 361.7 364.6 367.4 369.3 368.8 368.9 371.5 373.5 375.4 377.3 379.1 380.9 382.0 383.6 385.8 387.4 389.0 422.0 422.6 423.3 426.6 425.5 423.6 422.0 421.5 423.7 423.4 424.0 423.0 265.9 266.9 267.8 269.0 270.0 270.9 271.7 272.9 273.9 274.7 275.2 275.9 211.6 363.8 390.3 419.8 277.2 5.5 188.2 Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers. Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs and therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods. Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1980. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Cha nge from pr seeding perk d — Change from 3 montl s earlier, aim tal rate Consum r goods Consumt r goods Total finished goods Period Change from 6 month s earlier, ann ia] rate i —j Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Total finished goods Consunj r goods Excluding foods Poods Capital equipment Total finished goods Capital equipment Exeluding foods Foods Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Cha nge, Dec. o Dec., N 3A 1976 8.7 25 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984" 6.9 9.2 6.9 6.0 6.7 8.5 11.7 7.4 7.5 1.4 2.1 2.3 3.8 12.8 11.8 7.1 3.7 .6 1.8 17.5 6.4 4.4 7.3 7.9 8.8 6.5 7.8 11.1 13.5 11.4 14.2 9.2 3.9 1.9 2.1 8.5 4.2 -.8 .8 9.2 4.0 1.6 2.1 Ct ange, mon th to mont h 1984: Jan 0.7 .3 .5 .0 r Feb ' Mar '. Apr r May ' June r July ' Aug ' Sept r Oct r Nov ' Dec '. -.6 .1 -1.1 -.8 0 1.5 -.3 1 0 2 -.2 0 -.0 .3 .2 — .1 -.0 1985: Jan .1 .4 .6 0.1 .3 .4 .3 .2 -.1 -.3 -.3 -.0 -.0 .3 .0 2.4 .2 1.0 0.3 .4 .3 .6 .2 .0 3.0 5.1 6.1 3.4 1.7 -.4 .3 0 0 — 1.0 1.1 1.8 .4 1.8 2 .1 .2 .2 2 ___2 -0.1 10.6 14.2 15.2 1.8 3.0 4.2 3.9 1.8 -.9 .4 -3.8 -7.5 2.7 5.1 4.5 -3.1 -2.8 — 1.6 2.8 3.5 3.9 5.3 2.9 2.2 .5 2.1 2.3 2.7 3.4 3.2 3.4 2.8 1.8 .8 .0 .7 3.3 — .5 -1.3 -I'.l 4.5 .2 O 1.5 4.5 1.0 .5 1.2 0 -.3 .6 .9 1.6 1.6 2.6 .4 -1.2 9.9 9.8 9.8 5.4 4.8 3.3 1.5 .6 2.1 0 -.1 2.2 2.0 -.8 2.3 2.9 3.7 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.5 2.3 .5 1.3 1.2 2.3 2.8 2.9 2.4 2.1 2.3 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.9 1.8 0 1.6 1.1 .9 2.0 2.8 2.4 1.6 .3 -1.7 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1980. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Tr ansportat on Housing Adder dum: All ite tns, percent change (annu 1 rate) Ap- All items ' Period Food Total ' Total ' Homeowners' Renters' costs Fuel and other utilities parel and upkeep Total ' New cars Motor fuel 2 Medical care Bner- gy 3 items less food, energy, and shelter From previous From 3 months earlier From 3 From year earlier NSA NSA change, 11 ecembei to Dec Ember, 1 SA 4.8 6.8 9.0 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 0.6 8.0 13.3 12.4 11.8 10.2 10.2 8.9 3.9 3.8 4.0 4.3 3.1 2.6 3.8 0.6 1.4 .7 -.0 5.4 4.2 7.6 9.9 8.7 15.2 13.7 10.2 9.0 8.1 5.9 11.5 17.4 15.1 3.6 3.5 4.2 9.9 2.4 4.7 5.2 0.3 .3 .4 .6 .3 .3 .7 .4 .5 .4 .3 .4 0.4 .5 .1 .6 .3 .2 .5 .5 .5 .1 2 .2 .4 .2 .1 2 16.0 13.6 14.5 9.7 1.8 4.2 5.1 5.9 4.5 5.1 0.4 .3 .5 .8 .4 .5 .6 .6 .5 .5 .5 0.4 .2 .5 .6 .3 .3 .7 .5 .6 .4 .3 .4 -.6 .0 -.3 .4 .2 -.1 4.5 4.2 3.2 5.5 6.8 3.6 1.6 2.9 2.0 8.8 4.3 7.7 18.2 14.7 11.0 1.7 3.9 3.1 4.8 7.2 6.2 7.4 7.5 6.8 1.6 3.4 2.4 2.6 4.9 8.5 52.2 18.9 9.4 -6.5 -1.7 -2.4 10.1 8.8 8.8 10.1 10.0 12.5 11.0 6.4 6.1 6.9 7.2 8.0 37.4 18.1 11.9 1.3 -.5 2 5.8 6.5 7.7 7.0 5.2 6.5 7.2 9.9 9.4 6.1 5.0 4.4 11.3 13.5 10.4 6.1 3.2 4.3 Chi nge, month to nlonth 1984: Jan r Feb T Mar r Apr r r May ..... June r.... Julv r .... Aug '..... Sept r.... Oct ' Nov ' Dec ' 1985: Jan 1 Includes 2 Includes 3 .4 .3 .4 .2 .2 .3 .4 .4 .3 .2 .3 _2 — .1 2 .2 .4 .5 .1 .3 .2 .0 1.1 1.6 -.7 .7 .2 .2 .8 .5 .4 0.2 -.2 .1 J .1 -.2 .3 .8 .5 .7 1 -.1 0 items not shown separately. direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981. Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, jtc., also included through 1982. 4 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. v * NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. 24 0.5 -.0 .9 .6 .2 .0 2 0 .3 .4 -0.0 .4 .4 .0 -.2 .1 .4 .4 .5 .3 -0.2 -1.5 1.3 .7 -.8 -1.1 -1.8 1.0 .8 .8 .5 0.6 .7 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .3 0 .1 .2 .8 3 — .4 -.4 -.1 0.6 .4 .3 5.2 .4 .4 .3 3.7 .3 .4 .4 .5 .4 3.7 .6 .4 1 3.6 2 .2 .1 — .1 .4 .1 -.2 .3 .2 .3 .3 .3 -1.4 .3 -.8 .5 1 4.1 4.6 4.7 5.1 4.7 5.4 5.4 4.5 3.6 3.2 2.7 3.8 4.5 4.3 3.4 3.0 4.8 4.6 4.8 4.5 4.3 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.5 3.6 3.7 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.0 2.6 3.4 3.6 4.5 Data beginning January 1978 are for ail urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers. Data beginning January 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs and therefore are not strictly comparable with data for earlier periods. , • , i_ • • ,,,™ Seasonally adjusted adiusted data revised beginning beginning 1980. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Both prices received by farmers and prices paid by farmers were unchanged in February. INDEX, 1977 =100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1977 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) 180 I«U PR CES PAID 160 _ y 120 -"C\ r j r "^ ^ - PRICES RECE VED X 160 ^.«- — — — — — — v 140 100 — /s-^r*' ""—"N. ^» 140 — 120 ' - — 80 60 MM i l l 1 IN 1 1 1 1 1 H I M MM 1 M i l l 1 1 M l l l l I I I M l l l l l l l l l RATI Of 140 — r—^~ -s 100 " IIMlllllll M11111M M 1 II 1 1 1 III 1 60 RA TIO^ 140 — — RATIO TOO N_ p^ ^— — — M l l l l l l l l l Mill HIM MIIIIMIM HIMMIIM 1977 1978 1979 1980 M l l l M I M I I M l l H M I M i l l l M M I MM Ml MM 1 H 1 1 1 1 1 1 1985 1981 1983 1984 1982 60 I/RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE [1977=100] Prices paid by farmer s Pri es received by farmers Period Livestock and products All farm products All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates 1 Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates 155 162 163 163 163 162 161 161 160 159 159 159 156 157 158 157 157 156 155 154 153 153 153 88 88 88 88 87 88 87 85 84 84 82 160 160 154 82 82 100 124 147 144 143 145 141 146 100 108 123 138 150 157 160 164 100 109 125 1981 1982 1983 1984 100 105 116 125 134 121 127 139 1984: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 144 145 146 145 144 145 143 139 138 137 135 137 151 151 151 145 143 145 143 141 139 143 145 164 165 165 165 165 164 164 164 164 164 164 1985: Jan T Feb 135 135 126 124 145 146 164 164 1 139 140 145 145 144 144 136 138 130 125 Includes items not shown separately. Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. 2 Ratio 2 100 106 107 97 93 85 84 87 100 115 132 134 139 133 134 142 1977 1978 1979 1980 Production items 139 151 155 159 161 100 108 125 138 148 150 153 154 J.JOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by Saw. The indexes have been converted to a 1977 = 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES Growth in Ml and the broader aggregates was little changed in January. (Since revised data for earlier months are not available, chart shows old series through 1983 and revised series beginning 1984.) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,200 400 300 19B5 • AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES; SEASON, COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE [Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] M2 Ml M3 L Debt Percf nt change from vea r or 6 months earlier 2 Ml plus overnight Period 1977: 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1984: 1985: Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OCDs) Eurodollars, MMMF balances (general purpose and broker/dealer), MMDAs, and savings and small time deposits Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec ' Jan ' Feb r Marr Apr r Mavr June r Julv '. Augr Sept r Ocf Novr Dec r 531.4 534.2 537.3 539.2 542.5 547.3 546.9 548.9 551.5 548.4 553.9 558.7 2,371.6 2,202.2 2,216.9 2,229.1 2,241.1 2,255.2 2,269.3 2,280.2 2,292.8 2,308.2 2,318.7 2,345.8 2,371.6 Jan » 562.9 2,399.4 558.7 1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. NOTE.—Money stock series were revised in February 1985 to incorporate annual benchmark and seasonal adjustment changes. Data are not yet available prior to October 1983. 26 M2 plus large time deposits, term RPs, term Eurodollars, and institution-only MMMF balances 2,995.4 2,719.3 2,741.7 2,765.4 2,788.0 2,815.2 2,839.0 2,862.1 2,879.0 2,901.3 2,925.4 2,960.1 2,995.4 3,027.1 M3 plus other liquid assets 3,196.6 3,227.8 3,269.2 3,295.8 3,329.3 3,370.5 3,406.0 3,433.6 3,462.9 Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors (monthly average) * 2,829.1 3,200.0 3,583.5 3,926.1 4,311.8 r 4,709.2 r 5, 223.9 5,937.3 5,284.4 5,343.3 5,398.3 5,457.7 5,518.8 5,575.0 5,634.8 5,691.9 5,740.7 5,797.8 5,868.4 5,937.3 Ml M2 M3 5.9 5.6 5.4 3.4 4.2 4.2 7.2 7.0 7.2 7.0 8.2 9.2 10.8 10.3 10.1 10.1 10.6 11.3 5.9 10.7 11.9 Debt 12.6 13.1 12.0 9.6 9.8 9.2 10.9 13.7 12.0 12.7 13.0 13.4 14.0 13.9 13.7 13.5 13.1 12.9 13.1 13.4 The nontransactions portion of M2 is seasonally adjusted as a whole to reduce distortions caused by substantial portfolio shifts arising from regulatory and financial changes in recent years, especially shifts to MMDAs in 1983. A similar procedure is used to seasonally adjust the remaining nontransactions balances in M3. See p. '21 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Other Period Demand deposits Currency checkable deposits (OCDs) Overnight repurchase agreements (BPs), net, plus overnight Eurodollars NSA Money market mutua fund bala ices General purpose and broker/ dealer NSA Institution only NSA Money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) Savings deposits Small denomination time deposits 1 Large denomination time deposits ' NSA Term repurchase agreements (RPs) Term Eurodollars (net) NSA NSA Shortterm Treasury securities Savings bonds Bankers' acceptances Commercial paper 1984: Janr Feb r Mar r Apr r May r June r July r Aug ' Sept r Oct r Nov r Dec * 1985: Jan" 138.3 139.0 139.4 141.0 142.2 141.9 144.1 146.2 56.1 57.3 56.6 56.3 58.3 55.9 56.3 58.4 56.7 56.8 58.0 57.4 137.8 142.1 144.8 145.9 146.5 148.9 150.5 150.6 152.0 155.7 162.2 168.1 43.5 44.6 45.0 45.0 45.3 45.7 46.1 46.2 46.9 52.2 58.3 62.7 384.0 390.0 396.9 401.0 399.4 397.8 394.2 388.9 388.7 392.1 402.5 415.1 305.1 303.8 302.9 301.9 301.5 149.2 62.6 172.8 65.0 433.7 244.3 245.2 245.5 245.9 246.3 248.9 247.3 246.8 247.5 244.5 246.8 248.6 132.7 133.8 135.6 136.1 159.4 249.1 149.4 150.2 151.2 152.1 152.8 154.3 155.0 155.9 156.8 157.1 157.9 158.7 1 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. 369.8 379.5 389.3 392.6 396.2 405.7 411.3 416.7 50.1 51.4 53.5 57.3 59.5 59.2 60.0 64.1 66.6 69.3 70.0 69.7 89.0 89.4 93.2 93.1 93.6 89.5 88.4 86.7 85.9 81.0 417.2 69.9 81.2 336.1 343.0 349.7 357.7 300.8 299.1 296.4 294.5 292.4 290.4 288.2 790.3 796.2 802.3 811.2 822.6 834.0 843.7 855.0 864.4 872.1 877.9 885.1 288.2 881.7 71.4 71.8 72.1 72.5 72.7 73.0 73.1 73.3 73.6 227.7 234.1 244.7 243.7 243.5 253.8 262.3 271.9 282.9 43.3 42.9 44.0 44.7 46.5 134.9 137.3 142.9 146.9 151.4 157.1 47.7 48.2 47.8 46.8 160.2 161.4 158.2 819 83.2 Travelers checks are a component of money stock but are not shown here. NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. NOTE.—Money stock series revised; see note p. 26. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Ins tallment credi outstanding (end of perio d) Period Total 1977: 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: Automobile Revolving 36,427 45,004 53,174 54,900 Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 226,646 269,392 82,890 101,863 307,115 309,694 330,218 348,944 388,718 468,691 116,523 116,808 125,323 129,799 141,876 169,514 1983: Dec 388,718 1984: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 393,187 399,795 405,665 412,073 422,306 430,131 437,237 443,235 447,518 453,793 461,743 468,691 14,897 15,199 Other Total 131,573 147,818 178,914 35,921 42,746 37,723 2,579 20,524 18,726 39,774 79,973 92,432 107,326 120,575 120,684 126,707 Automobile 15,092 18,973 14,660 Revolving 19,922 Mobile home Other 367 302 1,644 459 540 14,894 13,249 109 6,023 8,515 4,476 12,077 27,638 8,577 8,170 1,726 5,409 5,144 10,111 19,053 577 4,240 1,341 2,186 4,866 16,245 31,096 1,690 1 2,623 505 02 -127 1,950 2,662 2,298 2,097 3,425 2,905 2,582 2,334 1,324 2,638 3,541 3,340 60,309 65,453 75,564 94,617 16,843 17,302 17,879 22,119 23,460 25,646 141,876 75,564 23,460 147,818 5,782 1,468 143,982 146,781 147,107 149,265 152,954 155,851 159,273 161,050 162,367 164,724 167,448 169,514 76,069 77,342 80,304 82,172 84,989 86,558 87,198 88,512 89,836 91,332 93,046 94,617 23,368 23,241 23,526 23.811 24,113 24,567 25,029 25,602 25,920 25,704 25,675 25,646 149,768 152,430 154,728 156,825 160,250 163,155 165,737 168,071 169,395 172,033 175,574 178,914 4,469 6,608 5,870 6,408 10,233 7,825 7,106 5,998 4,283 6,275 7,950 6,948 2,106 2,799 326 2,158 3,689 2,897 3,422 1,777 1,317 2,357 2,724 2,066 1 For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, chang< from preceding month. Mobile home Net change in in stallment ere dit outstandi "g 1 285 1,273 2,962 1,868 2,817 1,569 640 1,314 1,324 1,496 1,714 1,571 285 285 302 454 462 573 318 -216 -29 -29 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK LOANS AND SECURITIES, AND RESERVES Commercial and industrial loans were about unchanged in January. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 2,000 1,800 — ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 1,600 1,400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 LOANS AND LEASES 600 — -- 600 400 400 U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 200 200 160 160 T OTHER SECURITIES 120 120 80 60 80 Illlll 1977 Illlll Illlllll iilLJ 1978 1980 1979 1981 1983 1982 LLU 60 1984 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED. SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 1985 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Al Loans a nd leases Period Total loans securities Total 2 Depo itory institute ns 3 l commercial banks Commercial and industrial loans E eserves adjust id for changes i i res erve requirem ents U.S. Government securities Total borrowed Borr swings (millions of dollars, unad usted) Required Total Seasonal Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 891.4 1,013.8 1,135.4 1,239.7 1,307.4 1,400.5 1,553.0 1,714.1 632.2 746.9 849.1 914.5 967.4 1,032.8 1,122.7 1,313.5 211.0 246.1 291.1 326.9 355.1 391.5 412.8 468.3 136.6 137.6 144.4 170.9 179.6 202.7 260.8 260.2 122.7 129.2 141.9 154.4 160.4 165.0 169.6 140.3 26.63 27.91 29.09 31.04 32.10 34.28 36.14 r 38.71 26.06 27.04 27.62 29.35 31.46 33.65 35.36 35.52 26.44 27.67 28.76 30.52 31.78 33.78 35.58 37.86 569 868 1,473 1,690 636 634 774 3,186 55 135 81 116 54 33 96 113 1984: Feb Mar Apr May June Julv Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1,584.1 1,599.6 1,612.9 1,629.8 1,636.6 1,652.6 1,662.1 1,674.9 1,682.8 1,700.7 1,714.1 1,181.2 1,196.3 1,213.2 r 1,232.0 1,243.2 1,256.7 1,264.2 4 1,275.0 1,284.3 1,299.7 1,313.5 421.7 432.2 438.5 448.0 452.2 455.0 458.1 4 460.0 463.0 467.9 468.3 260.7 261.0 257.6 257.3 253.7 256.4 257.1 258.0 257.0 259.4 260.2 142.2 142.3 142.1 140.5 139.7 139.5 140.8 141.9 141.5 141.6 140.3 37.03 37.10 37.11 37.45 r 38.29 r 38.24 r 38.39 38.14 r 37.76 r 38.11 r 38.71 36.46 36.15 35.88 34.46 r 34.99 r 32.32 r 30.37 r 30.90 r 31.74 r 33.50 35.52 36.08 36.39 36.62 36.87 37.52 37.63 37.70 37.52 37.14 37.42 37.86 567 952 1,234 2,988 3,300 5,924 8,017 7,242 6,017 4,617 3,186 103 133 139 196 264 308 346 319 299 212 113 1,723.8 1,320.9 469.1 260.0 142.9 39.71 38.32 38.97 1,395 62 1977: 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: Jan" 4 1 Data are prorated averages of Wednesday 1 gures for domestic ally chartered banks and averages of month-end data for foreign-related institutions 2 Excludes loans to commc rcial bants in the Jnited States, 3 Data are averages of dail f figures. 1984 a transfer of loans from Con tinental Illinois Nat onal Bant to the FDIC reduced total loans and securities and total loans by $1. 9 billion, commercia and industri- 28 a loans by $1.4 bill on, and real esta e loans (not sho m here) by $0.4billion. NOTE. —Series for all commercial rnnks beginning d ata for earlier pen ods, largely beca use beginning J alitical subdivisions are included in I J&ns rather than ^ Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve January 1984 ar e not strictly con parable with nuary"l984 cer ain obligations ( f States and n other securitie s. System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Uses Sources External Period Total Internal Cr edit market fu nds l Total Total 190.3 157.0 211.0 254.1 317.5 345.2 335.2 364.2 309.4 436.3 480.6 333.9 449.2 443.3 519.1 515.9 477.6 430.8 498.3 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984" 1983: I n 1984: Ill IV Ir II r Ill r. IV 85.6 119.7 134.2 157.4 175.7 188.8 189.5 230.4 234.3 280.5 336.3 250.4 269.7 292.5 309.3 319.6 331.7 340.7 353.4 104.7 37.3 76.8 96.7 141.8 156.4 145.7 70.2 30.8 54.7 72.4 80.5 88.2 90.9 133.8 75.0 155.9 144.3 83,5 179.5 150.7 209.8 196.3 145.9 90.1 144.9 91.5 81.4 87.8 91.4 68.7 86.5 66.6 129.4 112.3 75.4 63.0 115.0 Securities and mortgages Loans and short-term paper 26.3 38.7 38.2 35.8 32.8 20.9 52.4 21.8 43.9 -7.9 16.5 36.6 47.7 67.3 38.5 69.7 37.5 31.4 112.5 1.7 .6 29.6 93.6 135.9 152.2 70.1 91.7 43.9 56.4 -21.1 67.0 85.9 37.0 35.7 -23.6 -76.8 -7.1 23.3 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained ibroad. 2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. Total Other 2 34.5 6.5 22.1 24.3 61.3 68.2 54.8 42.3 -6.4 68.1 52.9 14.8 93.1 84.1 80.4 84.1 70.6 27.1 29.8 190.1 150.9 201.8 237.6 293.6 343.7 317.6 334.2 258.0 384.3 442.9 282.3 390.5 395.4 468.8 483.8 441.9 386.7 459.4 Capital expenditures 3 Increase in financial assets 137.9 109.7 148.3 175.1 201.6 219.4 221.2 52.2 41.2 53.5 62.5 92.0 124.3 96.5 271.3 229.6 256.2 367.0 206.9 255.3 270.6 291.9 354.5 364.4 388.3 361.0 62.9 28.4 128.1 75.9 75.4 135.1 124.8 177.0 129.3 77.5 -1.6 98.4 Discrepancy (sources less uses) 0.2 6.0 9.2 16.5 23.8 1.5 17.6 30.0 51.3 52.1 37.7 51.5 58.7 47.8 50.3 32.1 35.7 44.1 38.9 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars, except as noted] Curren : assets End of period Total Cash Governsecurities SEC series: 2 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 QFR-FRB series: 3 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1983: I II Ill IV 1984: I II Ill" 1 Notes and accounts receivable C urrent liabiliti 3S Other current assets Invento- Total 492.3 529.6 599.3 697.8 790.7 50.2 53.3 59.0 66.3 71.1 7.7 11.0 10.6 12.8 12.3 206.1 221.1 248.2 288.5 322.1 193.3 200.4 225.7 263.9 313.6 35.0 43.8 55.8 66.4 71.7 304.9 326.0 375.6 450.9 530.4 735.4 759.0 827.4 912.7 1,043.7 1,214.8 1,327.0 1,418.4 1,432.7 1,557.3 1,444.2 1,468.0 1,522.8 1,557.3 1,600.6 1,630.6 1,667.3 73.2 82.1 88.2 97.2 105.5 118.0 126.9 135.5 147.0 165.8 143.1 147.9 150.5 165.8 159.3 155.0 150.6 11.1 19.0 23.5 18.2 17.2 16.7 18.7 17.6 22.8 30.6 26.0 28.2 27.0 30.6 35.1 36.7 32.3 265.8 272.1 292.9 330.3 388.0 459.0 506.8 532.0 519.2 577.8 525.3 539.3 565.0 577.8 596.9 612.4 628.0 319.5 315.9 342.5 376.9 431.8 505.1 542.8 583.7 578.6 599.3 577.6 576.2 597.3 599.3 623.1 633.3 662.5 65.9 69.9 80.3 90.1 101.1 116.0 131.8 149.5 165.2 183.7 172.1 176.4 183.0 183.7 186.3 193.2 194.0 453.4 451.6 495.1 557.1 669.5 807.3 889.3 970.0 976.8 1,043.0 983.4 990.2 1,026.6 1,043.0 1,079.0 1,111.9 1,143.0 Total current assets divided by total current liabilities. Based on data from Statistics of Income, Department of the Treasury. Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations, Effective mid-1982, responsibility for the Quarterly Financial Report was transferred to the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census from the Federal Trade Commission. Notes and accounts payable Other current liabilities Net working capital ratio * 282.9 340.3 402.3 93.6 105.5 92.7 110.7 128.1 187.4 203.6 223.7 246.9 260.3 1.615 1.625 1.595 1.548 1.491 269.8 264.2 282.1 317.6 383.0 460.8 513.6 546.3 543.0 577.9 530.9 536.6 559.4 577.9 584.1 604.6 624.7 183.6 187.4 213.0 239.6 286.5 346.5 375.7 423.7 433.8 465.2 452.6 453.6 467.2 465.2 495.0 507.3 518.4 282.0 307.4 332.4 355.5 374.3 407.5 437.8 448.4 455.9 514.3 460.8 477.8 496.3 514.3 521.6 518.6 524.3 1.622 1.681 1.671 1.638 1.559 1.505 1.492 1.462 1.467 1.493 1.469 1.483 1.483 1.493 1.483 1.466 1.459 211.3 220.5 SEC series not available after 1974. See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for de- 2 3 Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bure 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates rose in February. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM I 1985 rOUNCIl Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] U.S. 1\easury security yields Constant nmaturities Period 2 3-month bills * 3-year 1979 1980 1981 1982 10.041 11.506 14.029 10.686 1983 1984 8.63 9.58 10-year 9.72 11.55 14.44 12.92 10.45 11.89 9.44 11.46 13.91 13.00 11.10 12.44 High-grade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor's) 3 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) 4 Prime 6 months 5 Discount rate (N.Y. P.K. Bank) 6 Prime rate charged by banks 6 10.91 12.29 14.76 11.89 10.28 11.77 13.41 11.02 10.15 8.89 10.16 8.50 8.80 12.08 12.57 12.81 13.28 13.55 13.44 12.87 12.66 12.63 12.29 12.13 9.31 9.86 10.22 10.87 11.23 11.34 11.16 10.94 10.16 9.06 8.55 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-9.00 9.00-9.00 9.00-9.00 9.00-9.00 9.00-9.00 9.00-9.00 9.00-9.00 9.00-8.50 8.50-8.00 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.50 11.50-12.00 12.00-12.50 12.50-13.00 13.00-13.00 13.00-13.00 13.00-12.75 12.75-12.00 12.00-11.25 11.25-10.75 12.23 12.02 12.04 12.18 12.10 12.50 12.43 12.53 12.77 12.75 12.55 12.26 Open-close 12.67 15.27 18.87 14.86 10.79 12.04 11.05 11.84 11.59 11.98 12.75 13.18 13.08 12.50 12.34 11.85 10.90 10.56 12.32 12.63 13.41 13.56 13.36 12.72 12.52 12.16 11.57 11.50 9.63 9.92 9.98 10.55 10.71 10.50 10.03 10.17 10.34 10.27 10.04 1985: Jan Feb 7.76 8.22 10.43 10.55 11.38 11.51 9.55 9.66 12.08 12.13 8.15 8.69 8.00-8.00 8.00-8.00 10.75-10.50 10.50-10.50 Week ended: 1985: Feb 2 9 16 23 Mar 2 9 7.76 8.16 8.20 8.15 8.36 8.73 10.34 10.42 10.40 10.56 10.91 11.15 11.37 11.37 11.57 11.83 9.30 9.52 9.66 9.68 9.78 11.85 11.95 12.01 12.21 12.47 8.22 8.48 8.63 8.74 9.05 8.00-8.00 8.00-8.00 8.00-8.00 8.00-8.00 8.00-8.00 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 Rate on new issues within period; bank-discount basis. Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. 3 Weeklv data are Wednesday figures. 4 Series excludes public utility issues for January 17, 1984 through October 11, 1984 due to lack of appropriate issues. 5 Bank-discount basis. Prior to November 1, 1979, data are for 4-6 months paper. 30 10.78 12.66 14.70 15.14 12.57 12.38 Open-close 9.03 9.44 9.69 9.90 9.94 10.13 10.49 10.41 9.97 8.79 8.16 1 (PHLBB) 7 9.63 11.94 14.17 13.79 12.04 12.71 6.39 8.51 11.23 11.57 9.47 1984: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2 New-home 6 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 7 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Rates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices set new highs in February. INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 110 110 100 100 90 90 COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX (NYSE) 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 Illllllllll Illllllllll 1977 1978 Illllllllll I l l l l l l l l l l Illllllllll 1979 1981 1980 1982 1983 Illllllllll 1984 40 1985 PERCENT PERCENT 20 20 EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS (S&P) 15 15 \ 10 10 5 5 1977 1978 1985 1979 1980 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Co mmon stock price s 1 Ne^v York Stock Ex 3hange indexes (] >ec. 31, 1965-5O) Common s ock 5yields (perce nt) 2 Period Composite Industrial Transportation Finance Utility Dow-Jones industrial average 3 Standard & Poor's composite index (194143 = 10)4 Dividendprice ratio 1983 1984 1984: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 58.32 68.10 74.02 68.93 92.63 92.46 64.76 78.70 85.44 78.18 107.45 108.01 47.34 60.61 72.61 60.41 89.36 85.63 38.20 37.35 38.91 39.75 47.00 46.44 61.42 64.25 73.52 71.99 95.34 89.28 844.40 891.41 932.92 884.36 1,190.34 1,178.48 103.01 118.78 128.05 119.71 160.41 160.46 5.47 5.26 5.20 5.81 4.40 4.64 90.60 90.66 90.67 90.07 88.28 87.08 94.49 95.68 95.09 95.85 94.85 105.44 105.92 106.56 105.94 104.04 102.29 111.20 112.18 110.44 110.91 109.05 86.33 86.10 83.61 81.62 79.29 76.72 86.86 86.88 86.82 87.37 88.00 45.67 44.83 43.86 44.22 43.65 44.17 46.49 47.47 49.02 49.93 50.58 89.95 89.50 88.22 85.06 80.75 79.03 87.92 91.59 92.94 95.28 95.29 1,164.46 1,161.97 1,152.71 1,143.42 1,121.14 1,113.27 1,212.82 1,213.51 1,199.30 1,211.30 1,188.96 157.25 157.44 157.60 156.55 153.12 151.08 164.42 166.11 164.82 166.27 164.48 4.59 4.63 4.64 4.72 4.86 4.93 4.62 4.54 4.62 4.61 4.68 1985: Jan Feb 99.11 104.73 113.99 120.71 94.88 101.76 51.95 53.44 101.34 109.58 1,238.16 1,283.23 171.61 180.88 4.51 4.30 Week ended: 1985: Feb 2 9 16 23 Mar 2 103.32 104.71 105.22 104.69 104.85 119.24 120.77 121.21 120.47 121.00 100.60 101.78 102.13 102.15 101.36 52.72 53.15 53.71 53.76 53.45 106.72 109.84 110.61 109.72 108.88 1,284.56 1,287.19 1,284.10 1,279.65 1,285.60 178.85 181.08 181.69 180.52 181.10 4.31 4.31 4.25 4.30 4.32 1979 1980 1981 1982 1 Average of daily closing prices. Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE. Includes 30 stocks. 4 Includes 500 stocks. 5 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earningsorice ratios based on nricea at end of Quarter. 2 3 Earningsprice ratio 13.46 12.66 11.96 11.60 8.03 9.57 10.56 9.96 NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first 4 months of fiscal year 1985 there was a budget deficit (including off-budget outlays) of $79.5 billion, compared to a deficit of $68.2 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,000 1,000 BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS ^ 900 900 800 "BUDGET OUTLAYS17 800 „*• "" 700 700 600 600 BUDGET RECEIPTS 500 500 400 400 _ BUDGET SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-) -100 -100 -200 -200 1977 1978 1979 1980 1982 1981 1984 1983 1985 1986 FISCAL YEARS I/ INCLUDES OUTLAYS OFF-BUDGET UNDER CURRENT LAW, PROPOSED TO BE ON-BUDGET. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] (Including outlays off-but get under current law, which are prc posed to be me [uded on-budg Bt) Period Receipts Outlays Gross Feder al debt (end of pe riod) Con- ponents of bu Iget Budget totals Surplus or deficit ( — ) On-budget under current la w Outlays Off-budget under current law; proposed to be included on-budget Outlays Held by the public Surplus or deficit (— ) Fiscal year or period: 1973 1974 1975 1976 Transition quarter 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 (estimates) 1 1986 (estimates) l 230.8 263.2 279.1 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.7 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 736.9 793.7 245.7 269.4 332.3 371.8 96.0 409.2 458.7 503.5 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 851.8 959.1 973.7 6.1 -53.2 73.7 -14.7 53.6 -59.0 -40.2 -73.8 78.9 -127.9 -207.8 -185.3 222.2 -180.0 0.1 1.4 8.1 7.3 1.8 8.7 10.4 12.5 14.2 21.0 17.3 12.4 10.0 12.5 1.5 245.6 267.9 324.2 364.5 94.2 400.5 448.4 491.0 576.7 657.2 728.4 796.0 841.8 946.6 972.2 4.7 -45.2 66.4 -13.0 -44.9 -48.6 27.7 -59.6 57.9 -110.6 195.4 -175.4 209.8 -178.5 468.4 486.2 544.1 631.9 646.4 709.1 780.4 833.8 914.3 1,003.9 1,147.0 1,381.9 1,576.7 1,850.2 2,092.0 551.8 610.9 644.6 715.1 794.4 929.4 1,141.8 1,312.6 1,523.1 1,704.4 Cumulative total, first 4 months: Fiscal vear 1984 Fiscal vear 1985 211.9 236.6 280.2 316.1 -68.2 79 5 .6 .7 280.8 315.4 -68.8 78.8 1,442.0 1,684.4 1,201.6 1,389.4 1 Estimates from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1986, Office of Management and Budget, February 4, 1985. 32 -14.9 -14.8 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 343.0 346.1 396.9 480.3 498.3 FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 4 months of fiscal year 1985 budget receipts were $24.7 billion higher than a year earlier and budget outlays (including off-budget items) were $35.9 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 400 400 _ INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES BUDGET RECEIPTS 300 300 200 200 SOCIAL INSURANCE TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS . CORPORATION INCOME TAXES - 100 100 OTHER RECEIPTS 0 0 700 - BUDGET OUTLAYS-!/ - 700 .NONDEFENSE 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 NATIONAL DEFENSE 200 200 100 100 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1984 1983 1985 1986 FISCAL YEARS J/ INCLUDES OUTLAYS OFF-BUDGET UNDER CURRENT LAW, PROPOSED TO BE ON-BUDGET. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Bt dget receii n Period Total ts Budget jutlays Social insurance taxes and contributions To tal National defense 1 Ot ler Healt h and Intern ational aff vidual income taxes ration income taxes 131.6 157.6 181.0 217.8 244.1 41.4 90.8 34.3 371.8 285.9 297.7 288.9 296.2 329.7 358.9 54.9 60.0 65.7 64.6 61.1 49.2 37.0 56.9 66.4 74.1 106.5 121.0 138.9 157.8 182.7 201.5 36.6 37.8 40.8 50.6 69.5 69.3 65.8 71.7 409.2 458.7 503.5 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 268.4 289.4 72.4 851.8 959.1 71.3 973.7 946.6 972.2 105.4 115.3 13.5 16.4 70.1 80.2 23.0 24.8 280.2 280.8 316.1 315.4 Other Including offbudget items Onbudget items Total Department of Defense, military Including offbudget items Onbudget items security and medicare 1 Including offbudget items Onbudget items Net interest ' Including offbudget items Onbudget items Fiscal year or period: 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 (estimates) 2 1986 (estimates) 2 Cumulative total, first 4 months: Fiscal year 1984 Fiscal year 1985 298.1 355.6 399.7 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 736.9 793.7 211.9 236.6 209.0 241.7 364.5 400.5 448.4 491.0 576.7 657.2 728.7 796.0 841.8 1 There are no outlays off-budget under current law in this function. Estimates from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1986, Office of Management and Budget, February 4, 1985. 3 Not available. 2 NOTE.—Outlays off-budget under current law are proposed to be on-budget. Starting in fiscal 1985 military retired pay is financed from a trust fund in the income security 89.6 88.1 6.4 5.6 89.7 76.5 82.8 209.9 227.4 253.8 285.7 204.4 220.8 246.3 277.5 6.4 7.5 7.5 12.7 13.1 12.3 11.8 15.9 19.6 18.3 4.9 6.0 6.2 10.8 11.2 10.0 9.0 13.1 17.2 18.1 104.4 116.3 134.0 157.5 185.3 95.3 102.3 113.7 131.0 153.8 180.7 202.5 223.3 235.8 257.4 269.4 78.3 80.0 86.9 109.7 126.6 135.2 151.2 143.1 161.1 150.7 76.5 78.3 80.0 86.9 109.6 125.8 134.5 150.8 143.0 161.2 150.7 26.7 97.2 29.9 35.4 42.6 52.5 68.7 85.0 89.8 111.1 130.4 142.6 93.0 114.7 119.6 131.4 133.5 125.4 122.3 118.6 136.8 107.1 76.3 85.8 105.8 108.5 119.2 115.3 111.1 113.2 111.5 126.6 105.8 73.0 79.8 70.9 77.4 (3) (3) 4.8 6.0 77.2 82.7 (3) (3) 48.1 57.0 34.2 42.0 (3) (3) 43.6 48.0 104.5 116.6 130.6 150.6 178.7 function. The national defense function includes accrual charges to pay for retirement benefits earned by currently active duty personnel, and these are offset in the undistributed offsetting receipts (employer share, employee retirement). Data for all periods in this table are shown on as comparable a basis as is feasible. Data shown here exclude the transition quarter. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the third quarter of 1984, Federal receipts rose $1.9 billion (annual rate) and expenditures rose $18.8 billion, yielding a deficit of $180.6 billion. In the fourth quarter, according to revised estimates, expenditures rose $30.4 billion; receipts data are incomplete. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 900 800 800 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-) m -100 -100 -200 -200 1976 1977 1979 1978 1980 1982 1981 1983 CALENDAR YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal (government expenditur 3S Federal Governme it receipts Period Total Fiscal year: 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 Calendar year: 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 r 1982: HI IV 1983: I n m 1984: IV I n m IV * Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Contributions for social insurance Total Transfer pay- Grantsin-aid to State and local governments or deficit Subsidies Net interest paid current surplus of Government enter- LessWage accruals less disbursements national income and product accounts 525.9 609.2 626.4 627.1 687.6 250.4 289.4 311.4 294.1 303.2 69.9 69.3 50.9 53.8 70.1 35.5 53.5 50.3 51.0 55.2 170.0 197.0 213.9 228.3 259.1 576.5 668.2 740.0 816.4 857.9 189.3 218.4 250.6 273.2 285.2 239.4 279.5 310.6 344.6 348.4 86.7 90.1 83.4 85.7 90.8 50.7 67.7 82.3 90.3 109.7 10.4 12.5 13.0 22.2 23.9 0.0 .1 -.0 -.4 .1 -50.7 -58.9 -113.6 -189.3 -170.3 540.9 624.8 616.7 641.1 704.7 609.9 608.3 619.8 649.3 640.2 655.0 686.4 704.3 706.2 257.7 298.7 306.2 295.2 314.8 298.8 300.9 298.2 304.7 284.6 293.3 301.6 310.7 319.7 327.4 70.3 65.7 46.6 59.8 70.9 47.5 42.0 46.9 59.2 66.7 66.5 73.0 75.6 65.3 39.0 56.4 48.4 52.4 55.5 47.5 48.2 47.1 53.8 54.0 54.5 54.1 55.9 56.1 55.9 173.9 204.1 215.5 233.7 263.4 216.1 217.1 227.6 231.7 234.9 240.7 257.6 262.0 265.2 268.9 602.1 689.1 764.9 819.7 879.9 773.6 818.9 805.6 816.7 821.1 835.5 847.6 868.0 886.8 917.2 197.0 228.9 258.9 269.7 295.6 261.6 279.4 273.0 270.5 269.2 266.3 267.6 296.4 302.0 316.3 251.5 286.8 321.6 345.6 352.3 327.0 344.4 340.9 348.1 343.4 350.1 347.7 350.1 353.8 357.8 88.7 87.9 83.9 86.3 93.2 83.0 84.6 85.5 86.3 86.7 86.5 90.6 93.2 92.1 97.0 53.4 73.3 84.4 94.2 116.7 87.5 87.0 87.7 90.0 97.3 102.0 107.6 110.9 122.0 126.3 11.5 12.3 16.1 23.4 22.1 14.5 23.5 18.5 20.5 24.1 30.6 34.4 17.7 16.5 19.9 .0 .1 -61.2 -64.3 -148.2 -178.6 -175.2 -163.7 -210.6 -185.7 -167.3 -180.9 -180.5 -161.3 -163.7 -180.6 Sources: Department of Commerce {Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget. 34 Purchases of goods and services -.0 — .4 .0 • .0 .0 .0 -1.3 -.4 .0 .2 .2 -.4 .2 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES [1967 = 100] Indu stria! proc action (sea sonally adju ted) Period United States Canada 146.1 152.5 147.0 151.0 138.6 147.6 ' 163.4 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984" 1984: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec? 158.5 160.0 160.8 162.1 162.8 164.3 165.9 166.0 165.0 r 164.4 T 165.0 r 165.9 1985: Jan" 166.6 1 Japan France 215.3 225.2 227.5 228.4 236.5 155 163 161 160 158 159 170.2 250.2 257.0 165.0 167.1 254.1 255.4 167.4 261.5 168.9 169.9 262.8 175.9 264.0 r 175.0 266.0 r !71.4 262.8 r !71.3 270.7 175.1 r271.8 270.9 161 160 162 157 162 159 166 166 160 163 161 157 157.8 167.6 165.1 165.9 149.5 157.6 201.1 Germany Consurm r prices (i nadjusted) Italy United Kingdom United States ' Canada Japan France 252.3 Germany Italy United Kingdom 161.5 162.0 159.1 154.5 155.7 147.9 157.6 166.5 163.8 158.8 153.7 127.8 132.9 124.1 119.6 121.7 125.7 195.4 217.4 246.8 272.4 289.1 298.4 311.1 202.5 221.0 243.5 273.9 303.5 321.0 335.0 261.3 282.3 296.2 304.1 309.7 316.6 233.9 259.1 294.2 332.7 373.1 407.9 439.5 166.9 175.8 186.9 196.8 203.3 208.2 286.2 328.5 398.0 472.4 549.4 631.8 698.8 316.6 359.0 423.6 473.9 514.7 538.3 565.1 160.9 '163.4 159.4 ' 158.1 r 160.2 r 144.0 ' 164.3 r 162.6 ' 163.6 r 166.2 T 166.7 166.4 156.5 154.3 159.8 153.5 159.1 160.5 158.5 160.8 162.6 158.6 156.8 ' 128.3 127.8 ' 126.8 r 125.7 124.3 ' 125.1 r 124.4 r 124.6 T 126.4 '128.0 127.8 305.2 306.6 307.3 308.8 309.7 310.7 311.7 313.0 314.5 315.3 315.3 315.5 329.2 331.1 331.9 332.7 333.3 334.7 336.6 336.6 336.9 337.5 339.7 339.9 312.3 314.2 315.1 315.9 318.2 315.6 316.2 313.4 318.5 321.0 319.0 319.6 425.4 428.0 431.0 433.6 436.2 438.4 441.5 443.7 445.9 449.0 450.3 451.2 206.6 207.1 207.3 207.7 207.8 208.6 208.2 207.8 208.0 209.2 209.6 209.8 678.3 685.8 690.6 695.4 699.6 703.8 705.9 708.0 713.0 720.1 724.4 729.5 550.4 552.6 554.4 561.8 563.9 565.3 564.7 570.0 571.1 574.6 576.4 575.9 316.1 341.3 736.8 578.0 154.1 r Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. 160.2 Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, Office of Trade and Industry Information, Trade Statistics Division, in International Economic Indicators. U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] 1 Merc handise expo rts Period foreign exports Ger eral import s Domestic exports Total domestic Total 2 Food, beverages, and tobacco Mercha adise trade >afance Merc landise imp orts Crude materials and fuels factured goods Food, beverages, and tobacco Total 2 Crude materials and fuels 3 Exports factured goods Total (c.i.f. value) 4,257 5,398 6,379 8,360 9,352 10,427 8,823 11,042 13,368 15,504 18,519 21,415 less imports (customs value) Exports (f.a.s.) Exports (f.a.s.) imports (U.s.) imports (c.i.f.) I\a.s. valu Monthly average: 1975* 1976' 1977* 1978* 1979* 1980 8,971 9,602 10,103 11,973 15,155 18,386 1981 1982 1983 1984 19,473 17,683 16,707 18,155 19,075 17,256 16,326 17,670 2,767 2,248 2,248 2,276 2,752 2,793 2,463 2,624 12,857 11,643 11,034 11,929 21,748 20,329 21,504 27,144 1,529 1,485 1,568 1,802 7,739 6,200 5,670 6,063 11,873 12,002 13,621 18,460 22,779 21,240 22,490 28,431 -2,275 -2,647 4,797 -8,988 -3,306 3,558 -5,783 -10,276 8,847 9,462 9,919 11,762 14,886 18,043 1,399 1,436 1,330 1,717 2,049 2,534 1,266 1,341 1,548 1,746 2,352 2,810 5,913 6,437 6,679 7,873 9,716 11,991 8,209 10,290 12,533 14,563 17,455 20,406 827 991 1,186 1,312 1,478 1,546 2,716 3,457 4,463 4,325 5,949 7,831 762 148 -688 -2,430 -2,590 -2,300 -2,020 -1,440 -3,265 -3,530 -3,364 -3,030 Customs value 1984: Jan ' Feb r Mar r. Apr r. May r June r July ' Aug r Sept r Oct r Nov r Dec r. 17,889 17,208 17,906 17,520 17,978 17,705 19,154 18,123 18,210 18,411 18,395 19,142 17,410 16,782 17,390 17,071 17,493 17,250 18,675 17,665 17,709 17,886 17,857 18,623 2,358 2,170 2,477 2,151 2,150 1,880 2,155 2,131 2,586 2,336 2,506 2,413 2,541 2,427 2,806 2,575 2,818 2,644 2,733 2,609 2,440 2,352 2,454 2,988 11,826 11,407 11,290 11,541 11,684 11,834 12,746 11,854 11,946 12,329 12,148 12,409 26,205 26,420 26,948 28,074 26,012 25,276 31,334 26,866 28,409 26,783 27,331 25,933 1,759 1,773 1,865 2,028 1,761 1,576 2,002 1,711 1,803 1,924 1,705 1,719 6,060 6,106 6,291 6,618 5,648 6,049 6,497 5,815 5,755 6,106 6,158 5,689 17,569 17,857 18,022 18,489 17,815 16,831 21,824 18,598 20,027 18,037 18,499 17,777 27,397 27,587 28,178 29,401 27,262 26,461 32,925 28,213 29,753 28,064 28,617 27,176 -8,316 -9,212 -9,043 - 10,553 -8,034 -7,571 -12,180 -8,743 - 10,200 -8,372 -8,937 -6,791 -9,508 — 10,379 -10,272 -11,880 -9,284 -8,755 — 13,771 - 10,090 -11,543 -9,653 -10,222 -8,033 1985: Jan 19,401 18,852 2,161 2,562 13,282 28,297 1,932 5,373 19,879 29,687 -8,896 -10,285 1 Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginning January 1978. 2 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. 3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. NOTE.—Imports on c.i.f. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods. Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Islands exports are reflected in the figures for domestic and foreign exports combined and trade balance. "Data for 1975-79 for domestic and foreign exports combined, total general imports, and trade balance include trade of the Virgin Islands. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the fourth quarter of 1984, the merchandise trade deficit fell to $22.9 billion, from $33.1 billion in the thi.-d quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* -30 -35 -35 -40 -40 1984 • S E A S O N A L L Y ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits {+), debits (—)] Merchandise 3 In vestment incorae 1 transactions Net travel and transportation receipts 15,975 17,962 20,565 31,218 30,443 34,052 27,803 23,508 559 1,528 621 -1,778 -2,237 -1,115 195 515 -2,558 3,565 -3,573 -2,935 -997 144 -1,008 —4,584 Net Period Exports 114,745 120,816 142,054 184,473 224,269 237,085 211,198 200,257 220,270 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984" 1982: I n m IV 1983: I n m IV 1984: I n m" IV » Imports Net balance -124,228 -9,483 -151,907 -31,091 - 176,020 -33,966 27,555 212,028 -249,781 -25,512 28,001 265,086 -247,667 -36,469 261,312 61,055 -327,867 -107,597 Receipts Payments 29,286 32,179 42,245 64,132 72,506 86,411 83,862 77,003 -13,311 14,217 -21,680 32,914 -42,063 -52,359 -56,059 -53,495 Net Other services, net 3 and services 1 9,205 4,711 5,272 -9,894 10,340 6,013 4,686 5,735 7,277 8,975 13,128 8,048 8,339 — 1,141 8,704 -32,912 2,270 3,729 -3,231 -3,908 Remittances, pensions, and other unilateral transfers 1 current account 4,207 -4,998 -4,617 — 14,511 -5,106 -15,446 -964 -5,649 1,898 -7,077 6,294 -6,833 -8,058 -9,199 -8,651 -41,563 -2,105 -1,802 -1,745 -2,406 165 1,927 -4,976 -6,314 55,482 55,118 52,079 48,519 -62,546 -60,921 -64,442 -59,758 7,064 -5,803 -12,363 -11,239 20,889 22,307 21,505 19,162 -13,653 -14,772 - 14,390 -13,243 7,236 7,535 7,115 5,919 52 239 -2 -94 -114 -247 -99 -548 49,246 48,745 50,437 51,829 -58,523 63,615 -67,938 71,236 -9,277 14,870 -17,501 19,407 17,618 18,973 20,802 19,609 -12,380 -12,995 -13,630 -14,490 5,238 5,978 7,172 5,119 790 53 -55 -273 -263 -1,131 -1,426 -1,764 -1,370 2,142 2,258 -7,712 2,107 -9,703 2,198 -14,127 -1,573 -2,943 -1,848 -9,560 -2,143 -11,846 -3,086 -17,213 53,920 54,548 55,482 56,320 79,735 -80,352 -88,573 -79,207 -25,815 25,804 -33,091 22,887 23,300 20,822 22,501 -15,552 17,363 -18,823 7,748 3,459 3,678 -370 -404 -241 -1,400 -2,112 -2,590 2,351 -17,526 2,355 -22,547 2,205 -30,082 -2,147 -19,673 -2,157 -24,704 -2,818 -32,900 1 Excludes military grants. Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. 2 3 36 2,160 2,005 2,118 2,054 Note.—Merchandise data for 1984 are as revised in Economic Indicators, January 1985; other data to be revised later. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks decreased $18.4 billion in the third quarter of 1984 compared with an increase of $20.6 billion in the second quarter. Liabilities to foreigners and international financial institutions reported by U.S. banks (excluding U.S. Treasury securities) decreased $3.9 billion, compared to an increase of $20.8 billion in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 60 60 CHANGE-IN FOREIGN ASSETS IN THE U.S..NET -20 CHANGE IN U.S. ASSETS ABROAD, NET -40 -40 -60 -60 1976 1984 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] U.S. assets abroad, net Foreign assets in the 1 J.S., net [increase /capital inflov • (+)] 2 [increase/capit il outflow ( — } Period U.S. Total 1976 1977 1978 1979 Other foreign assets Total Foreign official assets 36,518 51,319 64,036 38,752 58,086 81,313 95,181 81,722 17,693 36,816 33,678 -13,665 15,497 5,003 3,318 5,339 18,826 14,503 30,358 52,416 42,589 76,310 91,863 76,383 U S official assets, net1 (unadjusted, end of period) 18,747 19,312 18,650 18,956 26,756 30,074 33,958 33,747 10,544 -2,023 12,540 25,404 24,982 22,275 32,916 9,331 -1,133 -8,155 -5,175 -4,965 -1,196 -4,214 -44,498 -3,693 -30,717 -4,660 -57,202 -3,746 -59,453 -5,162 -72,802 -5,107 - 100,694 -6,143 -107,790 -5,013 -43,281 -31,960 — 41,409 -26,216 -19,314 -1,089 -1,132 -794 -1,950 -803 -1,700 -2,555 -1,086 -30,068 -38,577 -22,867 -16,279 28,344 33,772 18,384 14,680 -3,221 1,399 2,477 2,664 31,565 32,373 15,907 12,017 3,450 5,710 12,808 10,947 -24,364 -1,060 -9,223 - 14,843 -787 16 529 -953 -1,130 -1,251 -1,204 -1,429 -22,447 15,888 12,452 19,578 33,804 -252 1,739 -2,703 6,555 16,139 10,714 22,281 27,249 11,420 -1,833 1,491 -1,748 -579 439 2,518 2,657 34,261 33,876 33,066 33,747 -1,989 -19,037 16,024 TJI"... -657 -566 -799 -2,037 -1,235 -1,474 15,660 40,405 6,234 -2,784 18,444 40,750 7,256 6,002 3,336 10,642 -154 — 104 2,386 34,975 34,547 34,306 I n m I n m IV 1984: U.S. private assets Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy -2,558 IV 1983: Other U.S. Government assets Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) -51,269 -34,785 -61,130 -64,331 -86,118 -110,976 -118,898 -49,490 1980 1981 1982 1983 1982: official reserve assets 1 2 Statistical ( iscrepancv Allocations of special drawing rights (SDKs) I n -375 732 175 -8,548 — 12,461 705 -17,237 18,297 1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDRs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the IMF. 2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. 345 -1,022 1,139 1,152 1,093 -964 487 -2,276 2,752 29,944 30,671 30,993 33,958 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury, 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING page Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets Consumer Installment Credit Bank Loans and Securities, and Reserves Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays, and Debt Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. 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