Full text of Economic Indicators : February 1978

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Congress, 2d Session

16

Economic Indicators
February 1978

Prepared for the joint Economic Committee by the




Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1978

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to Sec, 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
RICHARD BOTIJNG, Missouri, Chairman
LLOYD BENTSEN, Texas, Vice Chairman
SENATE
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
JOHN SPARKMAN (Alabama)
HENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin)
WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin)
WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD (Pennsylvania)
ABRAHAM RIBICOFF (Connecticut)
LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana)
EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)
GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana)
GEORGE McGOVERN (South Dakota)
OTIS G. PIKE (New York)
JACOB K. JAVITS (New York)
CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio)
WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)
GARRY BROWN (Michigan)
JAMES A. McCLURE (Idaho)
MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts)
ORRIN G. HATCH (Utah)
JOHN H. ROUSSELOT (California)
JOHN R. STARK, Executive Director

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
CHARLES L. SCHULTZE, Chairman
LYLE E. GRAMLEY
WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS

[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—1st SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 58]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint
Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a
sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at
Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives,; two copies to
the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic
Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository
libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.
Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.

Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at 85 cents a single copy
or by subscription at $10.10 per year ($2.55 additional for foreign mailing) from:
SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402

U




TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

According to revised estimates for the fourth quarter, gross national product rose $47.8 billion or 10.4 percent, both
at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) increased at an annual rate of 4.0 percent and the
implicit price deflator rose at a 6.1 percent annual rate.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

1,800

1,800

1,600

1,600

1,400

1,400

1,200

1,200
GNP
/
IN 1972 DOLLARS

1,000

1,000

8001969

1976

1970

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE

1977

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1975
1977
1976: I

Gross
national
product

Personal
consumption
expenditures

Gross
private
domestic
investment

Net
exports

Total

Nondefense

State
and
local

Final
sales

90. 9
98. 0
97. 5
95. 6
96.2
102. 1
102.2
111. 1
123.3
130. 1
145.5

71. 5
76. 9
76.3
73.5
70.2
73.5
73.5
77.0
83. 9
86.8
94. 3

19. 5
21. 2
21. 2
22. 1
26.0
28.6
28.7
34. 1
39.4
43. 3
51. 2

89.3
100.7
110.4
123. 2
137.5
151. 0
167.3
191.5
215.6
231.2
249. 5

786.2
860.8
926.2
978. 6
1, 057. 1
1, 161. 7
1, 288. 6
1, 404. 0
1, 540. 3
1, 693. 1
1, 872. 6

7.9

3. 0

153.9
160.6
168.4
168.5

143.7
150.4
160. 6
165. 6

353. 6
358.9
363. 0
370.0

127. 6
128. 5
130.2
134.2

86. 3
86.0
86.4
88. 4

41.3
42.5
43.8
45.8

225. 9
230.4
232. 7
235.8

1, 636. 7
1, 673. 7
1, 705. 8
1, 7§6. 3

-8.2
-9.7
— 7. 5
-15.1

170.4
178. 1
179. 9
173.6

178. 6
187.7
187.4
188. 7

374. 9
390. 6
400. 9
413. 4

136. 3
143.6
148.1
153. 8

89.7
93.4
95. 6
98.5

46.7
50.2
52. 5
55.3

238.5
247. 0
252. 9
259.6

1, 797. 0
1, 848. 2
1, 892. 2
1, 953. 0

231. 3
244.4
254.3
243.4

10.2
10.2

1, 172. 4 271.8
1, 194. C) 294.9
1, 218. € 303.6
1, 260. 2! 305. 2

4.9
2.3
1.8
3.9
1.6

— 3. 3
7. 1
6. 0
20.4
7.8

-10.1

* This category corresponds closely with budget outlays for national defense,
shown on p. 33.




Total

Na!
tional
defensp 1

180.2
198. 7
207.9
218.9
233. 7
253. 1
269. 5
302. 7
338. 9
361.4
394.9

1, 651. 2 1, 056. 0

1, 810. S
1977: I
II__ 1, 869. S
III— 1, 915. €
IV... 1, 963. 7

Imports

40. 6
47. 7
52.9
58.5
64. 0
75. 9
94. 4
131. 9
126. 9
155. 1
185. 6

120.8
131.5
146.2
140. 8
160.0
188. 3
220. 0
214. 6
189.1
243.3
293.9

Ill— 1, 727. 3 1, 102. 2
IV— 1, 755. 4 1, 139. C

Exports

services
Federal

45.6
49.9
54.7
62.5
65. 6
72.7
101. 6
137. 9
147. 3
162. 9
175.5

796. 3 490.4
868. 5 535. 9
935. 5 579. 7
982.4 618.8
1, 063. 4 668.2
1, 171. 1 733. 0
1, 306. 6 809.9
1, 412. 9 889. 6
1, 528. 8 980.4
1, 706. 5 1, 094. 0
1, 890. 1 1, 211. 4
!!_._ 1, 691. 9 1, 078. 5

Gov ernment ]purchases of goods and

Export s and imports of
good s and ser\ices
I

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS
[Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Exp>orts of go ods
Gross imvate domestic
a ad service s
irtvestment
Personal s
conGross
Change
national sumpNonResi- in busition
product
Net
resiExports Imports
expend- dential dential ness in- exports
ventofixed
itures
fixed
ries

Period

Governrnent pure aases of
good s and sen/ices
TTinoT

Total

Federal

State
and
local

sales

1, 007. 7
1, 051. 8
1, 078. 8
1, 075. 3
1, 107. 5
1, 171. 1
1, 235. 0
1, 217. 8
1, 202. 1
_ 1, 274. 7
1, 337. 5

603. 2
633.4
655.4
668. 9
691.9
733. 0
767.7
760.7
775. 1
821.3
861. 2

103. 5
108.0
114.3
110.0
,108. 0
116.8
131.0
130.6
112.7
116.8
127.0

37.2
42. 8
43.2
40.4
52.2
62.0
59.7
45.0
38.8
47.7
56.9

12. 0
8.7
10.6
4.3
6. 6
9.4
16.5
8.0
-9.9
8.5
11.4

3. 5
—.4
— 1.3
1.4
-.6
-3.3
7.6
15.9
22.5
16.0
10.0

54.2
58. 5
62. 2
67. 1
67.9
72.7
87.4
93.0
89.9
95.8
97.9

50. 7
58.9
63.5
65.7
68.5
75.9
79.9
77. 1
67.4
79.8
87.9

248. 3
259.2
256.7
250.2
249. 4
253. 1
252. 5
257. 7
263. 0
264.4
271.0

125. 3
128.3
121.8
110.7
103. 9
102. 1
96.6
95.8
96.7
96.5
101. 4

123. 1
130.9
134. 9
139. 5
145. 5
151. 0
155.9
161.8
166. 3
167. 9
169.6

995.7
1, 043. 1
1, 068. 2
1, 071. 0
1, 100. 9
1, 161. 7
1, 218. 5
1, 209. 9
1, 212. 0
1, 266. 2
1, 326. 1

1976: I _ _ - 1, 256. 0
!!___ 1, 271. 5
III__ 1, 283. 7
IV. .1, 287. 4

807.2
815. 5
822.7
839.8

113.7
115.9
118.5
119. 0

44.8
47.1
47.1
52.0

9.7
12.1
13. 8
-1.8

16. 8
16.4
17.0
13.8

93. 1
95. 2
97.9
96.9

76.3
78. 9
80.9
83. 1

263.9
264.4
264.6
264.6

96.4
96.1
96.7
97.1

167.5
168.4
168. 0
167.5

1, 246. 3
1, 259. 4
1, 269. 8
1, 289. 2

I... 1, 311. 0
II_- 1, 330. 7
IIL. 1, 347. 4
IV- 1, 360. 7

850.4
854. 1
860.4
879.9

124.3
126.4
127.6
129.8

52.7
57.6
57. 5
59.8

9.7
13.2
15. 7
6.8

10. 6
9.4
12.2
7.7

96. 9
98. 5
99. 8
96.4

86.3
89. 1
87. 6
88.7

263.3
270. 0
274. 0
276.7

97. 0
101. 1
103.3
104.2

166.4
168. 9
170.7
172.5

1, 301. 2
1, 317. 5
1, 331. 8
1, 353. 8

1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976__
1977

1977:

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
[1972 = 100]
i

Period

Gross
national
product

Personal consump tion expeiiditures

Total

Gross imvate
dom<sstic
invest ment

Nonres- PtesiNonDurable durable Services idential dential
goods
goods
fixed
fixed

Expor ts and
imports of goods
and se rvices

Governirtent purchases c f goods
and services

Exports Imports Federal

State
and
local

1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977

79.02
82.57
86.72
91. 36
96. 02
100. 00
105. 80
116. 02
127. 18
133. 88
141. 32

81.3
84. 6
88. 5
92.5
96.6
100.0
105.5
116.9
126.5
133.2
140.7

87.4
90. 7
93. 1
95. 5
99. 0
100. 0
101. 6
108.4
117.9
124.7
130. 1

81. 9
85. 3
89.4
93.6
96. 6
100. 0
107.9
123.8
133. 1
137.7
144.0

78. 8
82.0
86.1
90. 5
95.8
100.0
104. 7
113. 6
123.5
132.3
141.5

79.3
82. 6
86.6
91.3
96.4
100.0
103.8
115.3
132.3
138. 7
146.0

77.0
80. 7
87.7
90.6
94.9
100. 0
110.8
122. 3
132. 8
142. 5
159.9

84.0
85.3
87. 9
93. 1
96.6
100. 0
116.2
148. 3
163. 8
170.0
179.2

80. 1
80. 9
83.3
89. 1
93.5
100. 0
118.2
171. 0
188.2
194.3
211. 1

72. 6
76.4
80.0
86.4
92. 6
100.0
105.8
115.9
127.5
134, 8
143.4

72.5
76.9
81.9
88.3
94. 5
100.0
107.3
118.4
129.7
137.7
147.1

1976: I
II
III
IV

131.
133.
134.
136.

47
06
56
35

130. 8
132. 3
134.0
135.6

122.2
123.8
125.3
127.2

136.2
136.9
138.3
139. 3

129.2
131. 1
133. 2
135.4

136.8
137. 8
139.2
140.9

137. 1
140.7
144. 1
147.5

165.3
168.6
172.0
174.0

188.2
190. 7
198.4
199. 3

132.4
133.7
134. 7
138.2

134,9
136.8
138.6
140.7

1977: I
II
III

138.
140.
142.
144.

13
52
19
32

137.9
139.8
141. 7
143.2

129. 3
129.5
130.0
131.5

141. 5
143. 8
144. 9
145.9

137.8
140. 1
142.9
145.1

142.5
1444
146.9
150.2

153. 7
157.6
160.9
166.5

175.9
180.8
180.2
180.1

207. 0
210. 6
213.9
212.7

140. 6
142.0
143.3
147.6

143.4
146.2
148. 1
150.5

rv

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES
[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gross jnational p roduct

Constant
(1972)
dollars

Current
dol-

Period

lore

1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
.
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1976: 1
II
III
IV.___.
1977:1
II
III
IV

-—

5.8
9.1
7.7
5.0
8.2

10.1
11.6

8.1
8.2

11.6
10.8
13.2
10.2

8.6
6.7

13.2
13.7
10.2
10.4

Implicit
price
deflator

2.7
4,4
2.6
-.3
3.0
5.7
5.5

— 1.4
— 1.3

6.0
4.9
8.8
5.1
3.9
1.2
7.5
6.2

5. 1

4.0

Gross (lomestic ] product
Fixedweighted
price
index
(1972
weights)

Chain
price
index

2.9
4.5
5.0
5.4
5.1

4. 1

5.8
9.7
9.6
5.3

5. 6

4.1
4.9
4.6
5.4
5.3
7.1
4.8

6. 1

NOTE.—Annual changes from previous year and quarterly changes from
previous quarter.

3.0
4.4
5.0
5.3
5.0
4.1
6.0
9.9
9.5
5.6
6.0
4.9
5.3
4.6
5.9
6.9
7.0
4.3
6.2

3.0
4.3
5.0
5.2
4.9
4.0
6.0

10.2

9.4
5.6
6.1
4.6
5.2
4.8
6.0
7.1
7.0
4.8
6.3

Current
dol-

5.7
9.1
7.8
5.0
8.1

10.1
11.5
7.9
8.5

11.4
10.7
12.4
10.5
8.2
6.9

12.6
13.6
10.5
10.9

Constant
(1972)
dollars

Implicit
price
deflator

2.7
4.4
2.6
-.3
2.8
5.8
5.4

3.0
4.5
5.1
5.3

5. 1
4. 1

5.9
4.9
8.3
5.2
3.7
1.3
7.2

5.7
9.3
9.7
5.2
5.5
3.8
5.0
4.4
5.5
5.0

5.3
4.3

4.9
6.3

-1.3
-1.1

6. 1

7. 1

Chain
price
index

Fixedweighted
price
index
(1972
weights)

3. 1

3.0
4.4

4.4
5.0
5.3
5.0
4.1
5.9
9.6
9.5
5.6
6.0
4.8
5.4
4.5
6.0
6.7
7.0
4.3
6.3

5. 0

5.2
4.9

4. 0

5.9
9.9
9.4
5.6

6. 1
4.6
5.2

4. 6
6. 1

7.0
7.0
48
6.4

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS

Period

Gross d omestic
orodi ct of
nonfin ancial
corp(>rate
busi ness
(billic>ns of
doll ars)

[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Ciurrent-do] lar cost and profit per unit of outpu t (dollars] i
Capital
consumption
CompenallowTotal
ances Indirect sation
Net
cost
with business
of
inand 2
3
employ- terest
capital taxes
profit
ees
consumption
adjustment

Current
dollars

1972
dollars

452.9
498.4
541. 8
560.6
602. 5
671. 0
752.0
808. 8
875.2
991. 0
1, 104. 3

545.8
581.6
607. 3
600.6
619.3
671.0
720.4
695. 0
678.9
731. 0
773.7

0.830

958.4
1976: 1
II. __ 983. 6
III.. 1 004.7

IV___ 1 017. 2

719.4
731. 3
736.6
736.5

1.332
1.345
1.364
1.381

.
.
.
.

1 049. 3
1977: I
II___ 1 094. 9
III__ 1 124. 8

753.3
771.7
781.2

1.393
1.419
1.440

. 149
. 148
. 151

1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977 "

;857

.892
;933
.973
1.000
1. 044
1.164
1.289
1. 356
1.427

0.535
0.072
0.084
. 553
.074
.089
. 094
.589
.079
. 088 . 103 .628
. 094
. 110 . 645
.093
. 110 . 661
.095
. 112 .699
. 116 . 123 .796
. 143 . 136 . 849
. 146 . 136 .890
. 151 . 140 .947

145
144
147
150

Total

Profits
tax
liability

Profits
after4
tax

ComOutput
penper
sation
hour
per
of all
hour
employ- of all
ees
employ(1972
ees
dollars) (dollars)

0.051
0.016 0.123
.124
.058
.017
.022
. 109 . 055
.086
.045
.028
.048
. 029 .095
. 028 . 107 . 050
. 032 . 105 .055
. 061
.043 .086
. 045 . 115 .060
. 044 . 139 .073
. 141 .073
.047

0.072
.066
. 055
. 041
.046
. 057
. 050
. 024
. 055
.066
.068

6.873
7. 105
7. 139
7. 132
7.374
7. 595
7.781
7.506
7.766
8.055
8. 236

3.676
3. 929
4. 198
4.478
4.757
5.024
5.441
5.972
6. 596
7. 166
7. 803

.072
.075
. 074
.072

. 067
. 066
. 071
.060

7. 988
8. 073
8. 112
8.052

6.953
7. 101
7.238
7.373

.070
.075
.073

.058
. 068
.079

8. 170
8.209
8.298

7.599
7.737
7.873

.139
.142
. 145
. 132

134
135
136
139

.870
.880
.892
. 916

. 044
.044
. 044
.045

. 140
.139
. 140

.930
.943
. 949

.128
.046
. 047 .142
. 152
.048

.
.
.
.

1 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinaiicial corporate
business in 1972 dollars.
2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinandal cor>rate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left.
s Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments
ss subsidies.




Corpc rate profits with
invent*Dry valuai ion and
capii al consuniptlon
£tdjustmen ts

< With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics).

NATIONAL INCOME
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

National
income

Period

Compensation of
employees1

Proprietors'
income5 with
inventorY valuation and capital
consuniption
adjust ments

Farm

Nonfarm

Total
Total

Profits
before
tax

Inventory
valua-

Capital
consumption
adjustment

Net
interest

adjustment

18.6
20. 1
21. 5
21.6
21.4
22. 3
23.3
25.3

12ai
139.3

77.3
85. 6
83.4
71.5
82.0
96.2
115.8
126. 9
123.5
156.9
171.2

-1.7
— 3.4
5.5
-5. 1
— 5. 0
-6.6
-18.6
-40.4
-12.0
-14. 1
-14.6

3.7
3.7
3.5
1.5
.3
2.5
1.9
-2.9
-12.2
-14.7
-17.2

24,3
26. 8
30.8
37. 5
42. 8
47. 0
52. 3
69.0
79. 1
88.4
100. 8

66.9
68.8
70.0
72.0

23.0
22.9
23. 3
24.1

126. 5
129.2
133.5
123.1

141. 1
143.7
148.2
137.9

153.5
159.2
159.9
154.8

-12.4
-15.5
-11.7
-16.9

-14.6
-14. 6
-14.7
-14.8

85.0
86.5
90. 1
92.0

74.3
77.3
80.0
82.4

24.5
24.9
25.5
26.4

125.4
140.2
149.0

141. 0
156.2
166.9

161.7
174.0
172. 8

-20.6
-17.8
-5.9
-14.1

-15.6
-15.9
-17.9
-19.4

95.3
98.9
103. 1
106.0

48.9
51.4
52.3
51.2
53.4
58. 1
60.4
60.9
62.8
69.4
78.5

1976: I
II
III
IV

999.6
1, 321. 0
1, 353. 9 1, 024. 9
1, 379. 6 1, 046. 5
1, 402. 1 1, 074 2

20.0
21.6
16.2
16.6

1977: I
II
III
IV *

1, 450. 2 1, 109. 9
1, 505. 7 1, 144. 7
1, 540. 5 1, 167. 4
1, 202. 8

20.7
19.7
15.5
22.7

1

Profits with inv<sntory
valuat ion adjus tment
and ?without ostpital
eonsum Dtion adjiistment

75.6
82. 1
77.9
66.4
76.9
89.6
97.2
86.5
111.5
142.7
156. 6

12.1
12. 0
13.9
13.9
14. 3
18.0
32.0
25.4
23.2
ia6
19.7

-

Corpor,ate profits with inv entory valuation
and capital co nsumptioia adjustments

79.3
85.8
81.4
67.9
77.2
92.1
99. 1
83.6
99.3

471.9
655. 8
519.8
714.4
571.4
767.9
609.2
798.4
650.3
85a 1
715. 1
_ 951.9
799. 2
1, 064. 6
875. 8
1, 136. 0
930.3
1, 217. 0
1, 364. 1 1, 036. 3
- 1, 519. 8 I, 156. 2

1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976...
1977 *

Rental
income
of persons
with
capital
consumption
adjustment

19.4

ia 6

iai

Includes employer contributions for social Insurance. (See also p. 5.)

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
[Billions of dollars except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Nondural )le goods

Diurable goocIs

Total
personal
Period

sumption
expenditures

i

Total
durablel
goods

Motor
vehicles
and
parts

Furniture
and
household
equipment

Total
nondurable1
goods

Food

Services

Clothing
and
shoes

Gasoline
and oil

Retail jsales of
newpaissenger
cars (nlillions
of uilits)
Domestics

Imports

1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977

490.4
535.9
579.7
618.8
668.2
733.0
809. 9
889. 6
980. 4
1, 094. 0
1, 211. 4

69. 6
80. 0
85.5
849
97. 1
111.2
123. 7
122. 0
132. 9
158.9
179.9

29. 7
35.8
37.7
349
43.8
50. 6
55.2
48. 0
53.9
71.9
83.9

29.5
32. 6
35.0
36.7
39. 4
44 8
50. 7
549
58.0
63.9
70.5

212.6
230.4
247. 0
264 7
277. 7
299.3
333. 8
376. 3
409. 3
442.7
480.7

109.6
118.3
126. 1
136. 3
140. 6
150.4
168. 1
189.8
209.5
225. 5
246.3

38.2
41.8
45. 1
46.6
50.5
55. 1
61.3
65.3
70.2
76.3
83.0

17.0
18.4
20.4
22. 0
23.4
249
27.8
36.4
39. 1
41.4
447

208. 1
225.6
247.2
269. 1
293.4
322.4
352.3
391.3
438. 2
492. 3
550.8

7.6
8.6
8.5
7.1
8.7
9. 3
9.7
7.5
7. 1
8.6
9.1

0,8
1.0
1.1
1. 3
1.6
1. 6
1.8
1.4
1.6
1. 5
2.1

1976:1
II
III....
IV_

1, 056. 0
1, 078. 5
1, 102. 2
1, 139. 0

153.3
156. 7
159. 3
166.3

68. 8
71.0
72. 1
75. 7

61. 9
63. 0
63.9
66.5

430.4
437. 1
444 7
458. 8

219.3
223. 8
227. 0
232. 0

742
74 3
76. 9
79.9

40.6
40.3
41.2
43. 5

472.4
484 6
498. 2
513. 9

8.8
8.7
8.4
8.5

1.3
1.4
1.5
1.7

1977: !.„_>II
III....
IV

1, 172. 4
1, 194. 0
1, 218. 9
1, 260. 2

177.0
178.6
177.6
186.3

85.3
845
81.2
846

67.4
69.3
70.9
74 3

466.6
4744
481.8
500.0

237.9
2448
248.3
2543

79.3
80.4
83.3
89.0

44 1
44 3
442
46.2

528. 8
541. 1
559.5
573.9

9.4
9.3
8.9
8.9

1.8
2.4
2.0
2.0

* Total includes other items not snown separately.




Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income rose $4.3 billion (annual rate) in January, following a $19.8 billion (revised) increase in December.
Special factors added $8.0 billion to the December change and reduced the January change $9.0 billion. Without
these factors, the change was about the same in both months.
WIUONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALQ

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALQ
2,0
1,800
1,600

•1,800
1,600
1,400

T,400

1,200

1,200

1,000

1,000

800

800

600

WA<$ AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS

400

600

400

OTH.ER INCOME

200

200

TRANSFER .
PAYMB^TS

100

100

*80

80

60

\\ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 \

t III II I ! 1

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

\\\\\\\\\\
1976

1975

*SEASONAllY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Period

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976_
1977
1977: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
Juiy___.
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1978: Jan»___

milt
1977

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
3
Wage
Rental
Total
and
Other Proprietc>rs' income income
Transfer
Divi- Personal
paylabor
interest
personal salary
dends
of
12
4
income disburseincome
ments 8
income
Farm
Nonfarm persons
l
ments

801.3
54a5
579.4
859. 1
942.5
633. 8
1, 052. 4
701.3
764.6
1, 154,9
1, 253. 4 805.7
1, 382. 7 891. 8
1, 536. 7 989.9
937.3
1, 454. 3
951. 7
1, 477. 0
964.9
1, 499. 1
1, 510. 1 974. 1
982. 0
1, 517. 3
1, 524. 3
986. 5
1, 539. 2 992. 9
997.9
1, 549. 0
1,- 561. 3 1, 006. 0
1, 584. 0 1, 022. 1
1, 602. 3 1, 029. 9
1, 622. 1 1, 033. 7
1, 626. 4 1, 044. 6

32. 0
36.2
42.0

4a 7

55.6
649
75.9
88. 6
82. 1
83.2
84.4
85.5
86.7
87. 9
89. 1
90. 3
91. 5
92. 8
94. 0
95. 3
96.5

13.9
14.3
18.0
32.0
25.4
23.2
18.6
19.7
19.6
21.0
21.7
20.9
19. 8
18.4

ias

15. 1
14.9
17.4
21. 1
29. 4
23.0

51.2
53.4
58. 1
60.4
60. 9
62.8
69.4
78.5
72.5
74. 4
76.0
76.9
77.2
77. 6
79. 2
80.2
80.8
81. 5
82.3
83.2
83. 7

i The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income tdiffers
from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements.
| a Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare
funds; workmen's compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items.
s With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
* With capital consumption adjustment.




1978

18. 6
20. 1
21. 5
21.6
21.4
22. 3
23. 3
25.3
24.4
24. 6
24. 6
24. 3
24.8
25.6
24.7
25. 7
26. 0
26. 2
26. 4
26.6
26.8

22.9
23. 0
24,6
27.8
31.0
32.4
35.8
41. 2
37.9
38.5
39. 0
39. 3
39.6
41.9
42.0
42.4
42. 6
42.7
42. 9
45. 2
4:3.7

64.3
69.3
74.6
84, 1
103. 0
115. 6
130. 3
147.9
139. 0
140. 3
141. 8
143. 5
145.2
147.4
149. 1
150.4
151.3
153. 1
155. 4
157.8
159.3

79.9
94. 1
104 1
118.9
140.8
17a 8
192.8
206.9
200.5
203. 0
206. 9
206. 0
202.9
200.0
207. 2
208.6
210. 2
210. 9
213. 1
214 1
215.6

Leas: Personal con- Nonfarm
tributions personal
for social income 8
insurance

2ao

780.7
83ao
30.8
342
917.3
42.2 1, Oil. 9
47.7 1, 119. 3
50.4 1, 218. 8
55.2 1, 351. 3
61.2 1, 502. 7
59.0 1, 421. 1
59.6 -1, 442. 4
60.2 1, 46a 7
60.6 1, 475. 3
60.9 1, 483. 5
61.0 1, 491. 6
61. 5 1, 508. 3
61. 6 1, 519. 5
62.0 1, 531. 8
62. 6 1, 551. 9
62.9 1, 566. 3
63. 1 1, 577. 6
ea9 1, 58a 0

B Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments.
8
Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm, other
labor income, and agricultural net interest.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME
Real per capita disposable income rose again in the fourth quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
1,400

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

—PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PBSONAL INCOME

2,000

2,000
1969

1977

1970

*.SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATIS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Less:
"Par-

Period

Personal
income

tax
and
nontax
payments

Equals :
Disposable
personal
income

T

Personal
outlays *

Per c apita
dispo sable
Equals : persona] income
Personal
saving Current
1972
dollars dollars

Bil lions of d<3llars

1969
1970
1971 _ _
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977_ _

745.8
801.3
859. 1
942. 5
1, 052. 4
1, 154. 9
1, 253. 4
1, 382. 7
1, 536. 7

Per cap ita personal cc>nsumption exp gnditures
Current
dollars

1972
dollars

Percent
change
in real
per
capita
disposable
personal
income

Saving
as percent of
disposable
personal
income

Population
(thou-2
sands)

Dol Lars

115.4
630. 4
595. 3
685. 9
635. 4
115.3
742. 8
116. 3
685. 5
141.2
801. 3
751. 9
150.8
901. 7
831.3
170.3
984.6
913.0
169.0 1, 084. 4 1, 004. 2
1,
185.
8
196. 9
1, 119. 9
227.5 1, 309. 2 1, 242. 1

35. 1
50.6
57. 3
49. 4
70.3
71.7
80. 2
65. 9
67. 1

3, 111
3, 348
3,588
3,837
4,285
4,646
5,077
5, 511
6, 037

3, 515
3, 619
3,714
3,837
4,062
3,973
4,014
4, 137
4,292

2, 860
3, 020
3,227
3,510
3,849
4, 197
4,591
5,084
5,586

3,234
3,265
3,342
3,510
3,648
3,589
3,629
3,817
3,971

1.5
3.0
2.6
3.3
5.9
— 2.2
1. 0
3. 1
3.7

5.6
7.4
7.7
6.2
7.8
7.3
7.4
5.6
5.1

202,
204,
207,
208,
210,
211,
213,
215,
216,

677
878
053
846
410
945
566
191
856

4,921
5,018
5, 117
5,278
5,422
5,513
5,615
5,793

3, 761
3, 794
3,820
3,891
3,933
3,943
3,964
4,045

4.5
2.3
.5
4. 1
2.4
6.4
3.5
8.2

6.3
6.0
5.4
4.6
4. 1
5.3
5.5
5.5

214,
214,
215,
215,
216,
216,
217,
217,

608
948
380
827
206
603
073
541

Seas onally ad; usted ann ual rates
1976: I _ _ . 1, 338. 1 184.8 1, 153. 3 1, 080. 9

II
III
IV- _
1977: L—

1, 366. 7
1, 393. 9
1, 432. 2
1, 476. 8
II
1, 517. 2
III._ 1, 549. 8
IV _. 1, 602. 8

192. 6
200. 6
209. 5
224.4
2248
226. 1
234.6

1, 174. 1
1, 193. 3
1,222. 6
1, 252. 4
1, 292. 5
1, 323. 8
1, 368. 2

1, 103. 8
1, 128. 5
1, 166. 3
1, 201. 0
1, 223. 9
1, 250. 5
1, 293. 0

72. 4
70. 3
64.8
56.3
51.4
68. 5
73. 3
75. 2

5, 374
5,462
5,540
5, 665
5,793
5,967
6,098
6,289

»Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to
business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net).
* Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are for July 1 through 1973 and
are averages of quarterly data beginning 1974. Quarterly data are average for the
period.

6



4, 107
4, 130
4, 135
4, 177
4,202
4,268
4,305
4,391

Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau
of the Census).

FARM INCOME
In the fourth quarter of 1977, farm income excluding inventory change rose $4.0 billion (annual rate) while income
including inventory change rose $7.5 billion.
BiaiONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* {RATIO SCAi$

120

120

100

100

80

80

60

60

NET FARM INCOME
fNaUDING NET INVENTORY
CHANGE
-

40

40

\
20

20

10

I_

1970

1969

1972

1971

1973

1974

1975

1976

•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCEi DEPARTMfNT OF AGRICULTURE

10

1977

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Persona 1 incomereceived
by total farm po]pulation

Income r<sceived fr<>m farmin g
Realize3d gross

Period

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977"
1976: 1
II
III...
IV
1977: I
II
III...
IV*

From From From
aU
farm nonfarm Total i
sources sources sources

13.0
13.4
16.8
29.0
23. 1
21.5
17.8

27.4
28.7
34.4
48.6
44.7
44.3
42.0
44. 5

iae

14.4
15.3
17.6
19.5
21.6
22.8
24.2
25.9

58.6
60.6
70.1
95. 5
100.0
96.7
103.6
106. 1
102.1
109.6
100.9
101.9
106. 5
107.2
100. 8
110.0

Cas h receipts from
inarketing$

Livestock
Total
Crops
and
products
BilliojQS of dollaITS
50. 5
29. 6
21. 0
30.6
52.9
22.3
61.2
35.7
25.5
41. 1
87.1
45.9
92. 4
41. 4
51.1
88. 1
43.0
45. 1
94.3
46. 4
47.9
47.4
95. 0
47.6
93.0
46.3
46.7
100.4
48.3
52.1
91.5
45.5
46.0
45.4
92.4
47. 0
4& 2
50.5
96.7
50.3
97. 1
46.8
90.4
47.8
42.6
95.9
47.0
48.9

1
Cash receipts from marketings, Government payments, and nonmoney in >me furnished by farms.
2 Inventory of crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year.
* Based on Census of Agriculture definition of a farm. The number of farms is
held constant within a year.
* Income in current dollars divided by the index of prices paid by farmers for

23-1630—78




2

Nett<> farm
oper ators

Net income per
farm incliiding net3
inventor}r change

Produc- Exclud- Includtion ex- ing net ing net
penses inven1967 4
inven- Current
tory 2 dollars dollars
tory
change change
Do] lars
14.2
14.
1
444
4,790
4,202
13.2
14.6
47.4
5,030
4,263
17.8
18.7
52.3
6,504
5,288
33.3 11, 727
29.9
65.6
8,817
72.2
26. 1
9,232
27.7
6,114
24. 3
20.8
75.9
5,203
8,637
20.0
21.9
7,203
81.7
4,093
20.4
21.3
7,870
85.7
4,186
23.0
21.5
79.1
7,740
4,500
84.2
23.2
25. 4
8,350
4,800
82.3
18.6
17.6
6,330
3,580
81.2
18.0
20.7
6,480
3,600
22.0
84.5
21.5
7,940
4,330
20.7
21.2
86. 5
7,830
4, 180
83. 3
17. 5
17.5
6,470
3,410
21. 5
88. 5
25. 0
9,240
4,800

family living items on a 1967 base. As of January 1977 movement is based on the
overall change in the consumer price index.
Source: Department of Agriculture.

CORPORATE PROFITS
In ^977^ according to revised estimates, profits before tax rose 9 percent while before-tax profits with inventory valuation adjustment rose nearly 10 percent. Profits after tax rose 11 percent.
B1LUONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS Of DOUARS

40

1969

1976

1970

SOtNtCft DEPAfiTM£HT OF CQMMEftCt

1977

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
>ry valu£ition
Profit & (before tax) wit i invent<
adjustn lent l
Dome,stie indu stries
K onfinant ;ial

Period
Total *

1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977"
1976: I
II
III
IV
1977: I
II
III
IV*

75.6
82.1
77.9
66.4
76.9
89.6
97.2
8&5
111.5
142. 7
156.6
141. 1
143. 7
148.2
137.9
141. 0
156.2
166.9

Total

72.6
78.9
742
62.6
72.4
84.7
90.4
76.9
105.4
134.6
147.0
132.4
136.1
139.8
130. 2
131.0
145.5
157. 4

FinanTotal3
cial
9.0
10.4
11.3
12.6
14, 1
15.4
16.2
144
15.0
18.2
20.6
17.8
18. 1
18.4
18.4
19.2
19.9
21.2

63.6
68.5
62.9
50.1
58.2
69.3
74 1
62.5
90.3
116.4
126.4
1146
118.0
121.3
111. 8
111. 8
125.5
136. 1

WholeManu- sale
faeand
tur- retail
ing
trade
37.9
8.9
41.2
10. 1
36.8
10.1
27. 1
9.4
32.4
11.7
40.6
13.3
44 1
147
12. 9
36. 6
47. 9
22. 1
66.3
27. 1
73.8
65.3
26.5
68.7
25.5
68.4
29. 1
62.9
27.4
65. 2
240
76.4
25.4
77.6
31.2

* See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments,
»Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.
»Includes industries not shown separately.

8




Pro fits after tax

Profits
before
tax

Tax
liability

Total

Dividends

77.3
85.6
83.4
71.5
82.0
96.2
115. 8
126. 9
123.5
156.9
171. 2
153. 5
159.2
159.9
1548
161. 7
174 0
172.8

32.5
39.4
39.7
345
37.7
41.5
48.7
52.4
50.2
647
68.9
63. 1
66. 1
65.9
63.9
64 4
69.7
69.3

449
46.2
43.8
37.0
443
54 6
67. 1
745
73.4
92. 1
102.3
90. 4
93. 1
940
90.9
97. 2
104 3
103.6

2a 1
21.9
22. 6
22.9
23.0
24 6
27.8
31.0
32.4
35.8
41.2
33.6
35. 0
36. 0
38.4
38.5
40.3
42.3
43.6

Tin

distributed
profits
247
242
21. 2
14 1
21.3
30.0
39.3
43.6
41.0
56.4
61.2
56. 8
58. 1
58.0
52.5
58.8
64 1
61.2

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Inventory
valuation
adjustment

-1.7
-3.4
-5.5
-5.1
-5.0

-6,6

-18.6
—40.4
— 12.0
-14 1
-146
-12.4
-15.5
-11.7
-16.9
— 20. 6
— 17.8
-5.9
-141

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
Business fixed investment rose $7.4 billion (annual rate) in the fourth quarter as purchases of producers* durable
equipment increased $5.2 billion and investment in structures rose $2.2 billion. Residential investment increased $7.1
billion. Inventory investment amounted to $10.7 billion, down $12.9 billion from the third quarter level.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* iRATIO SCALE)
120
_,NONRESIDENT1AL FIXED INVESTMENT

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

100

.PRODUCERS'.
CURABLE EQUIPMENT

80

STRUCTURES

40

t

i

l

] I I

I

I I

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
90"
.RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT
80

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
40 '-CHANGE IN "BUSINESS INVENTORfES-

20

70'

0

60;

-20
-40

50

i it

1 1 1

t i i

1973

1974

1975

I
1977

1976

t I
1973

I

I I
1974

1975

*SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1976

1977

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADYIS1RS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Noiiresidential fixed investm*mt
Gross
private
domestic
investment

Period

Struc tures
Total
Total

1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1976: 1
II
III
IV
1977:1
II
III
IV

_—

_

120. 8
131. 5
146.2
140. 8
160.0
188.3
220. 0
214.6
189. 1
243. 3
293.9
231.3
244. 4
254. 3
243.4
271.8
294.9
303.6
305.2

82. 1
89.3
98.9
100. 5
104. 1
116.8
136.0
150.6
149.1
161. 9
185.5
155. 4
159.8
164. 9
167.6
177.0
182.4
187.5
194.9

29.5
31.6
35.7
37.7
39. 3
42.5
49. 0
54. 5
52.9
55.8
61.6
54.7
55. 8
56.0
57.0
57.9
61. 0
62. 6
648

Nonfarm

Total

Nonfarm

28.2
30.4
34.3
36. 1
37. 8
41. 1
46.9
51.8
50. 4
53. 4
58.9
52. 1
53.4
53. 6
54. 4
55.1
58.2
60. 1
62.1

52. 6
57.7
63.3
62.8
64. 7
74. 3
87.0
96.2
96.3
106. 1
123.9
100.8
104. 0
109. 0
110.6
119.2
121.4
124.9
130.1

48. 0
53.4
58.9
58. 1
59. 9
69. 1
80. 1
88.2
87. 1
95. 9
112.7
90.5
93.8
98.4
100. 7
107. 8
110. 0
114.0

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




Prodijeers'
dur able
equip ment

iiao

Resid ential fix ed inves tment
Prn

Total

Nonfarm
tures

28.6
34.5
37.9
36. 6
49.6
62.0
66. 1
55. 1
51. 5
68.0
91.0
61. 4
66.3
67. 8
76.7
81. 0
90. 8
92.5
99.6

27.2
33. 1
36. 3
35. 1
47.9
60.3
64.3
52. 7
49. 5
65.7
88.4
58. 9
64. 1
65.7
74.3
78.5
88.2
89. 9
97.0

Farm dueers'
durstrucftKIp
tures equipment

0.7
.6
.7
.6
.7
.7
.6
1.2
.9
1.0
1. 1
1.2
1. 0
.9
1. 1
1.1
1.2
1. 1
1.0

0.7
.8
.9
.9
1.0
1. 1
1.2
1.2
1. 1
1.3
1.4
1.2
1. 2
1. 2
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.5
L6

Change in business mv entories

Total

10.1
7.7
9.4
3.8
6.4
9.4
17.9
8.9
-11.5
13. 3
17. 4
14.5
18.3
21.5
-.9
13.8
21.7
23.6
10.7

Nonfarm
9. 4
7.6
9. 2
3.7
5. 1
8.8
14.7
10. 8
-15. 1
14. 9
16.4
15. 9
20. 4
22. 0
1.4
14. 1
22. 4
23. 1
6.2

EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
Business plans to Increase capital spending 10.1 percent in 1978, according to the Commerce Department survey
conducted in November and December. Spending in 1977 was 13.7 percent above the 1976 level, according to the
estimates released in December.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
180

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
180

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

160

160

140

140

TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
120

120

100

100

80

80

60

60

*"**«»•.,*<'
MANUFACTURING

—+.

40

I

20
1970

1

I

1

f

t

I

1972

1971

»
1973

1

1

*

f

40

!

1974

1975

I I
1976

!

1 t
1977

T; 20
1978

J/ 'SEE FOOTNOTE' 4 BELOW.
SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Starts (>f plant
and eqiiipment
pro;j<3Cts3

EJqpenditurcis for plan t and equ ipment
Mi inufacturi ng

Period
Total *

N<mmanuf acturing

Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable
goods

Total

15.84
15.72
18.76
23.39
26. 11
28.81

51.22
57.09
61.73
66.39
64.82
68.01
75.99

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976 4
1977

81.21
88.44
99.74
112. 40
112. 78
120. 49
137. 02

29.99
31. 35
38.01
46.01
47.95
52.48
61.03

14. 15
15. 64
19. 25
22.62
21.84
23. 68
28.26

1978 4
1976:111
IV
1977: I
II
III

150. 89
122. 55
125. 22
130. 16
134.24
140. 38

67.86
54.78
54.44
56.43
59.46
63.02

31.57
24.59
25.50
26.30
27.26

IV 4 _
1978: 1 44
II __

142. 88
146. 26
149. 86

67. 73

64.42

64.14

82. 77

85. 78
30.20
28.93

29. 23

30. 13
32. 19
33.79

88.54
67.76
70.78
73.74
74. 78
77.36

29. 88
SO. 46
81.82

34.54
38.68
85.91

77.96
82. 12
82. 13

i Excludes agricultural business; real estate operators; medical, legal, educational, and cultural service; and nonprofit organizations. These figures do not
agree precisely with the nonresidential fixed investment data in gross national
product estimates, mainly because those data include investment by farmers,
professionals, nonprofit institutions, and real estate firms, and certain outlays
charged to current account.
* Includes trade, service, construction, finance, and insurance.

10




Trans- Public ComMining porta- utili- munication
ties
tion

Commercial
and 2
other

Manufacturing

10. 77
11. 89
12.85
13.96
12.74
13.30

18. 05
20. 07
21. 40
22. 05
20. 60
20. 99
28.06

28. 00
35.21
47. 57
52. 49
48. 24
51. 05

22. 22
28.60
38. 13
45. 74
34. 50
29.66

13. 22
12. 88
15. 26
15. 15
19.81

7. 54
10. 22
9. 76
3. 79
10. 23

2. 16
2.42
2. 74
3. 18
3.79
4.00

4. 93
5. 72
6. 03
6. 66
7.57
7.45

15. 30
17. 00
18.71
20. 55
20. 14
22. 28

4.44
5.27

6.99
7.39

29. 27

4.21
4. 13
4. 24
4.49
4.74

7.25
7.53
7.29
6.96
6.85

21. 67
23. 46
25. 35
25. 29
26. 22

4.30

7. 17
8.02

27. 41
28. 72

4.61

26. 14

15.86

Public
utilities

41. 61
13.64
14. 30
14. 19

15. 32
16.40

20. 99
21. 36
22.67

22. 73
23. 14

89. 09
40. 76

3
Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during
given period.
* Expenditures estimates based on expected capital expenditures as reported by
business in October-December 1977.
NOTE.—Annual total is the sum of unadjusted quarterly totals.
Estimates (as noted in footnote 4) include adjustments when necessary for
systematic biases in expectations data.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE

Seasonally adjusted employment continued to grow in January, although the increase was affected by revisions in the
survey. The number of unemployed declined only slightly.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

100

100

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE

90
llt'lllflll

EMPLOYMENT

80

80

10"
UNEMPLOYMENT

1970

1971

1972

1975

1974

1973

i i i i I 11 i i i
1976

*16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1977

1978

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[T lousands of persons5 16 years of age and over]

Total
labor
Civilian Unem- force Civilian
Period
employ- ploy- (includ- labor
ment
ment
force
ing
Armed
Forces)
1973___ _ 148, 263 84, 409 4,304 91, 040 88, 714
1974
150, 827 85, 935 5,076 93, 240 91, Oil
1975
153, 449 84, 783 7,830 94, 793 92, 613
1976
156, 048 87, 485 7,288 96, 917 94, 773
1977... _ 158, 559 90, 546 6, 855 99, 534 97, 401
Uiaadjusted
Noninstitutional
population

Civilian eiuploymeuit

Total

84, 409
85, 935
84, 783
87, 485
90, 546

Unempl<Dyment

Nonagri cultural
Part-time
Agrieco- Total
culTotal for
nomic1
tural
reasons
2, 311
3,452 80, 957
4,304
3,492 82, 443
2, 709
5,076
3,490
3,380 81, 403
7,830
3,272
3,297 84, 188
7,288
3,244 87, 302
3,297
6, 855
Seasc>nally adj usted

15
weeks
and
over

Labor
force
participation
rate
(per-2
cent)

812
937
2,483

2, 339
1, 911

61. 4
61. 8
61.8
62. 1
62. 8

157, 381
157, 584
157, 782
157, 986
158, 228
158, 456
158, 682
158, 899
159, 114
159, 334
159, 522
159, 736

86, 856
87, 231
88, 215
89, 258
90, 042
91, 682
92, 372
92, 315
91, 247
92, 230
92, 473
92, 623

7,848 97, 852
8, 109 98, 457
7,556 98, 761
6,568 98, 878
6,151 99, 289
7,453 99, 681
6,941 99, 442
6,757 99, 751
6,437 99, 887
6,221 100, 205
6,346 101, 009
5,880 101, 048

95, 719
96, 320
96, 623
96, 746
97, 161
97, 552
97, 307
97, 614
97, 756
98, 071
98, 877
98, 919

88, 653
89, 047
89, 478
89, 877
90, 267
90, 648
90, 588
90, 793
91, 088
91, 383
92, 214
92, 609

3,121
3, 164
3, 179
3,256
3,335
3,330
3,206
3,224
3,199
3,243
3,357
3,323

85, 532
85, 883
86, 299
86, 621
86, 932
87, 318
87, 382
87, 569
87, 889
88, 140
88, 857
89, 286

3,243
3,441
3,271
3, 192
3,268
3,390
3,464
3,253
3,306
3,263
3,285
3,220

7,066
7,273
7, 145
6,869
6,894
6,904
6,719
6,821
6,668
6,688
6,663
6,310

2,244
2, 168
2,008
1,828
1,869
1,788
1,824
1,800
1,834
1,848
1,829
1,797

62.2
62. 5
62. 6
62. 6
62.8
62. 9
62.7
62.8
62.8
62.9
63. 3
63.3

1978: Jan*__ 159, 937

91, 053

6,897 101, 228

99, 107

92, 881

3, 354

89, 527

2, 986

6,226

1,688

63.3

1977: Jan..
Feb..
Mar__
Apr
MayJune .
July..
Aug..
Sept..
Oct..
Nov..
Dec..

12 Persons at work in nonagricultural industries.
Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of age and




*Not strictly comparable with earlier data because of revisions in the household survey, which added about 250,000 to labor force and to employment.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

11

SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage point in January. This was entirely attributable to the unemployment decline among adult women.
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

*ERCENT» (SEASONAU.Y ADJUSTED)

CQUNOL Of ECONOMIC ADttSHS

83URCE, DWJrTM&lT Of LABOR

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Total
(all
j civilian
workers)

Period

4. 9

1973
1974 -_
1975
1976

19771977: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Got
Nov
Dec.1978: Jan_1

_.

__
_

_.

5.6
8.5
7.7
7.0
7.4
7.6
7.4
7.1

7. 1
7. 1

6.9
7.0
6.8
6.8
6.7
6.4

as

TJneinployment rate ( percent sf civilia a labor f orce in group)
By sex and iige
]iy selecl ed groujIB
By race

Men Women Both
20
20
sexes
years years 16-19
and
and
years
over
over
3.2
3.8
6.7
5.9
5.2
5.8

5.9

5. 6

5.2
5.3

5. 1

5.1

5. 1

4.7
5.0
4.7
4.6
4.7

4.8
5.5
8.0
7.4
7.0
&9
7.2

7.2

7.0
6.9
7.2
6.9

7. 1

6.9
6.8
6.9
6.6

ai

14.5
16.0
19.9
19. 0
17.7
18.4
18. 6
18. 7
18.2
18. 1
18.0
17.3
17.3
18.3
17.3
17. 2
15. 6

mo

Aggregate facrtrs lost by the unemployed and persoas on part-time for econciDic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours.

12




White

4.3
5.0
7.8
7.0
6.2

a?

6.8
6.6
6.4
6.3
6.3
6.1

6. 1

6.0
6.0
5.9
5.5
5.5

ExpeFullBlack rienced
wage Housetime
and
hold
and
other salary
heads workers
workers
8.9
4.5
2.9
4.3
9.9
5.3
3.3
5. 1
8.2
5.8
13.9
8.1
13.1
7.3
7. 3
5.1
13.1
6.6
4.5
6. 5
12. 6
7.0
4.9
6.9
13.1
7. 1
4.9
6.9
12.9
6.9
4.7
6. 8
12.3
6.6
4.5
6.6
6.7
4.5
12.9
ae
13.2
6.5
4.3
6.5
13. 3
6.4
4.4
6.5
14.3
6.5
4. 5
6. 6
13.1
6. 3
4.4
6.4
13.7
4.4
6.5
6. 4
13. 7
6. 3
4. 2
6.2
12.7
ao 3.9 5.9
5. 9
12.7
as 5.8

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau at Labor Statistics.

Labor
force
time
Partlost
time
(perwork- cent) »
ers
7.9
8.6

10.3
10. 1
9.8

5. 2
6. 1
9. 1

a3
7.6

ai

10. 1
10.6
10.9

8.0
7.8

10.5

7.6
7.8
7.5
7.6

9.9
9.9

9.3
9.0
9.7
9.6
9.6

a9
8.9

7. 4

7. 4

7.4

7. 3

7.0

as

SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS
The decrease of 84,000 in unemployment in January was accompanied by another decline in the proportion of job
losers. The proportion of long-term unemployed also declined.
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*

REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
40

40

REENTRANTS

20

20
JOB LEAVERS

A

NEW ENTRANTS

f f f t 1

1975

1976

1977

I1 1 1 f

1978

•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

Period

Unem_i
___
ployment
(thousands)

1973
1974
1975
1976
__
1977 »
1977: Jan___
Feb__.
Mar__
Apr
May__
June__
July..
Aug..
Sept..
Oct.—
Nov__
Dec^.1978: Jan"..

4,304
5,076
7,830
7,288
6, 855
7,066
7, 273
7, 145
6,869
6, 894
6, 904
6, 719
6,821
6,668
6,688
6, 663
6, 310
6,226

1

1977

1978
GOMNC& OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Pereen t distrib ution of unemPereen t distrib ution of tmemQ-f-r»4-« -r\
1
btate
p rograms Insured
plo yment b y duratic m 1
unem- Special
pl oyment ] Dy reasoii
ployunemployment.
all
ment
27
Insured
Less
regular benefit3
5-14
Reen- New
15-26
weeks
unemInitial
Job
Job
en- than 5 weeks weeks
proclaims
and
ploy- claims
losers leavers trants trants
weeks
grams 2 (unadover
ment
(unad- justed)
justed)
We<jkly aver age, thou sands
7.8 1, 632
14 9
246
38.7
15.7
30.7
30.1
11. 0
51.0
1,793
2R4
7.3 2,262
43.4
14 9
50.6
11. 1
363
13.3
2,558
31. 0
15.2
3,992
55.4
10.4
10.4
478
23.8
37. 0
31.3
16.5
4,943
1,173
382
12.2
18. 3 2,968
49.8
12. 1
38.3
13. 8
3,822
26.0
29.6
1, 152
14 8 2,473
375
3,112
41.7
30.5
572
45. 3
13.0
28. 1
13.7
13. 1
12. 9
17. 1 2, 823
407
4,442
46. 0
13. 1
27.9
29.6
143
39. 0
823
12. 2
16. 9 2, 822
29. 9
13. 4
430
47. 4
27. 3
13. 0
39. 9
4,448
911
12. 1
41. 5
30.2
16. 2 2, 636
12. 9
3,972
45. 1
28. 1
14 0
344
901
44.2
28. 1
16. 4 2, 565
44 9
374
12.6
28.9
143
10.6
3,506
784
15. 6 2,565
41. 1
13.3
28.7
31.4
383
45.0
13.0
12.0
3,105
538
372
13. 9 2,568
445
29.6
13.6
27.7
484
43. 0
15.7
2,939
11.9
14 1 2,626
42. 1
13.2
12. 5
27.7
14. 5
30.6
385
45. 3
3,065
540
41. 5
32.4
12.6 2,733
385
12. 9
13. 7
13. 5
46. 3
27. 1
2,751
535
41. 1
12. 9
13.7 2, 664
368
13. 9
13. 4
412
45. 3
27. 9
2,643
31. 8
12. 8
41. 4
13. 7 2, 624
361
45.5
13. 1
28.6
31. 3
13. 6
2,649
364
2,
602
13.
3
354
28.5
13.6
42.4
30.3
44 7
13.3
13.9
2,853
315
13. 5 2,516
43.4
30.4
346
13. 9
29.8
13.0
41.3
148
3,226
259
43.2
13. 2 2,461
344
42. 9
29.0
145
192
29.8
13.8
13.6
3,779

Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding.
2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico), ex-servicemen (TJCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RB) programs. Also includes
Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include FSB (Federal
supplemental benefits) and SUA (special unemployment assistance).




1975

s FSB and SUA. These programs started January 1975 and regular reporting
began March 1975.
Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment
and Training Administration).

13

NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
Total nonagriculfural employment Increased by 253,000 in January. The largest increases were in trade and durable
goods manufacturing while the largest decline was in transportation and public utilities.
Ml .LIONS OF PER SONS* (ENLAR 3ED SCALE)

Mil1IONS OF PERSONS*
90

•

WHOLES;KLE AND

18
irf-**•

ALL NONAGRICULTURAL
ESTABLISHMEI^JTS

80
m

*.

\^
***~~**>~

—(H

RET/UL TRADE^^ .^^^^
\

-^^"^

—

^—

^** —

16

i

GOVERNMENT

14

70

;^
\~
*^J**~I m*^*^ —
^"Mil
SERVICES

-

-

SERVICE-PflEDUCING
INDU,STR1ES

fO

12
^*+~~*

»

<f I 1 ! 1 1 1 1 M 1 1

1 1 1 1 1 1 f ii 1 1

ft t f rt 1 1 it t

f 1 t t 1 1 1 11 1 H

1 1 1 It f I f 1 1 1

22

-

50

-

20

•*iw«^*'

'\ AAANUFACTURING

-

40
ll'f f 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 I t 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 M I ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1

I 1 1 1 1 f 1 \ M »>

30

.x-^*—n

1—T-n—i

•

CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION

20

f 1 M ! 1 1 M I1 1 I 1 M 1 1 I I1 1 1 1

'

1974 I

I f f f 1 | 111 I 1

1975 1 1976

•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

iiiiihini
1977

1 1 ! 1 I 1 1 1 M 1V

1978

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of wage and salary workers;1 seasonally adjusted]
Service-pi oducing Industrie3S

Groods-prc>ducing i ndustries

Period

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977*
1977: Jan.__
Feb...
Mar..
Apr
May__
June._
July..
Aug..
Sept__
Oct__.
Nov__
Dec v1978: Jan»__

Total
nonagricultural
employ- Total 2
ment
76, 896
78, 413
77, 051
79, 443
82, 142
80, 574
80, 870
81, 331
81, 620
81, 837
82, 157
82, 407
82, 474
82, 763
82, 902
83, 245
83, 432
83, 685

Contract
construction

Trans- Whole- Finance,
Gover nment
insurporta- sale
ance, Services
tion
and
Total
NonState
and
and
retail
durable
Total Durable
Federal and
real
public
goods goods
trade
local
estate
utilities
Ma nufactui •ing

24, 727 4,015 20, 068 11, 839
24, 697 3,957 20, 046 11, 895
22, 603 3, 512 18, 347 10, 679
23, 332 3,594 18, 956 11, 026
24, 231 3,845 19, 555 11, 481
23, 585 3,549 19, 219 11, 236
23, 763 3, 661 19, 278 11, 261
24, 017 3, 759 19, 417 11, 373
24, 176 3,830 19, 499 11, 404
24, 264 3,853 19, 566 11, 451
24, 355 3,888 19, 611 11, 484
24, 412 3, 913 19, 666 11, 548
24, 305 3,893 19, 594 11, 527
24, 360 3,892 19, 612 11, 545
24, 436 3,911 19, 666 11, 604
24, 528 3,950 19, 715 11, 625
24, 548 3,956 19, 879 11, 752
24, 652 3,949 19, 983 11, 836

8 229
8 151
7 668
7 930
8 075
7 983
8 017
8 044
8 095
8 115
8 127
8 118
8 067
8 067
8 062
8 090
8 127
8, 147

* Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural
establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period
which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from
this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the
civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed
persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they

14




52, 169
53, 715
54, 448
56, 111
57, 911
56, 989
57, 107
57, 314
57, 444
57, 573
57, 802
57, 995
58, 169
58, 403
58, 466
58, 717
58, 884
59, 033

4,644
4,696
4,498
4, 509
4,589
4,544
4, 553
4, 563
4,575
4,586
4,588
4, 572
4,581
4,616
4,610
4, 634
4, 650
4, 628

16, 674 4,091
17, 017 4,208
17, 000 4,223
17, 694 4, 316
18, 291 4, 508
17, 994 4,419
18, 039 4,431
18, 118 4,453
18, 175 4,463
18, 202 4,481
18, 264 4,494
18, 322 4,506
18, 377 4, 524
18, 431 4, 545
18, 414 4,572
18, 512 4,597
18, 592 4, 609
18, 686 4,619

13, 021 2,663
13, 617 2, 724
14, 006 2, 748
14, 644 2, 733
15, 333 2,727
15, 010 2,721
15, 068 2, 721
15, 149 2,725
15, 182 2,721
15, 197 2,725
15, 260 2, 735
15, 372 2, 721
15, 448 2,732
15, 482 2,728
15, 533 2, 730
15, 608 2, 727
15, 659 2, 718
15, 713 2, 726

11, 075
11, 453
11, 973
12, 215
12, 463
12, 301
12, 295
12, 306
12, 328
12, 382
12, 461
12, 502
12, 507
12, 601
12, 607
12, 639
12, 656
12, 661

are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on a sample
of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on
reports from employing establishments.
2 Includes mining, not shown separately;
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NON&GRICULTURAIi INDUSTRIES
[For production of nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Total
private
nonagricultural 1

Period

1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977*

._

*
_-__

_
_..__
„._.
^<._ —

1977: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct....
Nov...
Dec *

-

1978: Jan"

Overtime

Total
private
nonagricultural 1

Manufacturing

Manuf*tcturing
Total

Adjusted h ourly earnin gs index2 —1<3tal private
nonagricmltural

Averag e gross
hourly (3arnings

Aver age weekly lours

Percent eh ange from
a year earlier 4

Index, 1<567=100
Current
dollars

Current
dollars

1967
dollars 3

1967
dollars

37.7
37. 1
37. 0
37. 1
37. 1
36. 6
36. 1
36. 2
36. 1

40. 6
39. 8
39.9
40. 6
40. 7
40. 0
39. 4
40. 0
40.3

3. 6
3. 0
2.9
3. 5
3.8
3. 2
2. 6
3. 1
3. 4

$3. 04
3. 22
3. 44
3. 67
3. 92
4. 22
4. 54
4.87
5. 24

$3. 19
3.36
3.57
3. 81
4. 08
4. 41
4. 81
5. 19
5.63

113. 2
120. 7
129. 2
137.7
146. 5
158. 5
172. 5
185. 0
198. 5

103. 1
103. 8
106. 5
109.9
110. 0
107.3
107. 0
108. 5
109. 4

6.6
6. 6
7.0
6. 6
6. 4
8. 2
8. 8
7. 2
7.3

1. 2
.7
2.6
3. 2
.1
— 2. 5
—. 3
1. 4
.8

35.8
36.2
36.2
36.2
36. 3
36. 2
36. 1
36. 0
36.0
36.2
36. 2
36. 2

39. 5
40. 3
40. 4
40. 3
40. 4
40.5
40. 2
40. 3
40. 3
40. 4
40.5
40. 5

3. 2
3. 3
3. 3
3. 4
3. 4
3. 4
3.4
3. 3
3. 3
3. 5
3. 5
3.5

5. 07
5. 10
5. 13
5. 17
5. 20
5. 22
5. 27
5. 28
5. 32
5. 38
5.41
5. 42

5. 43
5. 45
5. 49
5. 53
5.57
5. 61
5. 66
5. 68
5. 73
5. 79
5. 81
5.83

192. 6
193. 2
194. 2
195. 6
196.4
197.4
199. 4
199. 9
201. 2
203. 3
204. 1
204.9

109.7
109. 0
108. 8
108. 7
108. 6
108. 6
109. 3
109. 2
109. 5
110. 2
110. 2
110. 2

7.2
7. 0
7.0
7.2
7.0
7. 1
7.5
7. 1
7.3
7.9
7.6
7.5

2.0
1. 0
.6
.4
.2
.3
.7
.4
.7
1. 3
.8
.7

35.7

39.7

3.5

5.47

5. 89

207. 3

110. 6

7.7

.9

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS—PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Average gross weekly earnings
Total pri vate nonagricu Itural !

Period

Current
dollars

1977: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec *>

__

1978: Jan »

1967
dollars 3

61
46
28
16
43
45
89
29
16

$104. 38
102. 72
104. 93
108. 67
109. 26
104. 57
101. 67
103. 40
104. 22

181. 51
184. 62
185. 71
187. 15
188. 76
188. 96
190. 25
190. 08
191. 52
194. 76
195. 84
196. 20
195. 28

$114.
119.
127.
136.
145.
154.
163.
176.
189.

1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977*

Manufacturing




3

Percent chtmge from a
year e arlier,
total pri''/ate nonagricu -tural 5
Current
dollars

Current dollars3
51
73
44
69
06
40
51
60
89

$181. 54
195. 45
211. 67
222. 51
235. 69
249. 08
265. 35
284. 93
296. 68

$90. 78
95.66
100. 39
105. 65
111. 04
118. 33
126. 75
133. 39
142. 52

6.4
4. 2
6. 5
7. 0
6.8
6.2
6. 1
7.6
7.3

103. 37
104. 13
104. 10
104. 03
104. 34
103. 94
104. 30
103. 81
104. 20
105. 62
105. 75
105. 48

214. 49
219. 64
221. 80
222. 86
225. 03
227. 21
227. 53
228. 90
230. 92
233. 92
235. 31
236. 12

280. 37
296. 25
294. 25
296. 54
298. 08
295. 87
297. 41
294. 92
294. 48
300. 66
301. 84
301. 39

138. 20
139. 28
140. 28
141. 28
142. 04
141. 86
143. 19
143. 09
143. 76
146. 40
145. 75
147. 19

5.6
7. 1
7. 7
8.3
7.5
7. 6
7. 7
7.3
8. 1
8.4
8. 2
7.5

104. 20

233. 83

290. 85

146. 94

7.6

$129.
133.
142.
154.
166.
176.
189.
207.
226.

1
Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.
2 Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing.
s Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price Index.
Eevised index for urban wage earners and clerical Workers used beginning 1978.
< Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places.

23-163°—T8

Contract
construction

Wholesale
and retail
trade

1967
dollars
1. 0
- 1. 6
2. 2
3. 6
.5
-4.3
-2.8
1. 7
.8
.4

1.0
1.2

1. 5
.7

.7

1.0

.6

1.4

1. 8
1. 4
;6
.8

• Based on unadjusted data.
NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted 1967 dollars revised.
Source: Department of Labor, Btxrean of Labor Statistics*

15

PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, PRIVATE BUSINESS ECONOMY
Hours of all
2
pers(ms

l

Outimt

Output ] >er hour
of all p ersons

Non-

Non-

Compensation
per I lour 3

Pri-

Non-

Unit labor
CO 3tS

Pri-

Non-

Impliei ; price
4
deflal x>r

Pri-

NonNonPrivate
Private
Private
farm
vate
farm
vate
farm
farm
vate
farm
farm
business
business
business
business business business business business business business
business sector
business sector
sector
sector
sector
sector
sector
sector
sector
sector
sector
sector

Period

1967== 100; quairterly dat a season*illy adjusl^ed

98.0
100.0
105. 1
108. 3

98. 1
100.0
105.4
108.6

100.3
100.0
101. 7
104.5

100.0
100. 0
102. 1
105.3

97. 8
100. 0
103. 3
103.7

98.1
100.0
103.2
103. 1

94.7
100.0
107. 6
115. 1

94,5
100.0
107.3
114. 3

96.8
100. 0
104. 1
111.0

96.4
100. 0
103. 9
110.9

97.2
100. 0
103.9
108.8

96.8
100. 0
104. 0
108.7

107.4
110.3
117.6
124. 5
121. 5

107.4
110. 3
117. 9
125. 0
121. 9

102. 8
102.3
106. 0
110. 1
110. 6

104. 0
103. 7
107.6
112.2
112. 7

104.5
107. 8
111. 0
113. 1
109.9

103.3
106.3
109.5
111.4
108. 1

123.3
131. 5
138. 9
150. 3
164. 3

121.9
129.9
137.4
148. 1
162. 0

118.1
121.9
125.2
132. 9
149. 5

118.1
122.2
125. 5
133. 0
149.8

113. 9
118. 9
123.2
130.3
143. 1

114. 0
119.2
122. 9
128. 0
141. 5

118. 7
126.9
134.6

118.7
127. 4
134. 9

106.1
108.9
112.7

108. 1
111.4
115. 5

111.8
116.5
119. 4

109.9
114.3
116.8

180.2
196.5
213.9

177.6
193. 1
210.0

161. 1
168.7
179. 1

161.7
168.9
179. 8

158.0
165. 6
174.2

156. 9
165. 0
174.0

IV

115. 1
117.2
120. 6
121. 8

115. 3
117. 1
120. 6
121. 8

105.7
104.9
106. 0
107. 5

107. 8
106.8
107. 7
109. 7

108. 9
111. 7
113.8
113.3

106. 9
109. 6
112. 0
111.0

176. 2
179. 2
181. 1
184. 6

173. 2
176. 3
179. 1
181. 9

161. 7
160.4
159. 1
163.0

162. 0
160.9
160.0
163. 9

1542
156. 4
159. 4
161. 6

153.4
155. 6
158. 1
160. 3

1976: I
II__.
Ill
IV _ _ _ _

124. 9
126. 7
127.7
128.4

125.2
127.2
128. 3
128.7

108.2
108.9
109. 0
109. 6

111. 0
111.2
111.4
112. 3

115.4
116.4
117.2

112. 9
114. 5
115.2
114.6

190.5
194. 5
198. 6
202. 7

186. 9
191. 3
195. 2
198.7

165. 1
167. 1
169.4
173.0

165. 6
167. 1
169.5
173.3

162.9
164.8
166.5
168. 3

162. 1
163.6
166.0
168. 1

1977: I --.- —
II
III

131.3
134. 0
135.7
137.3

131.6
134.5
136.0
137.5

110. 4
113.0
112.9
114.1

113.4
115. 6
115.9
117.0

118. 9
118. 6
120.2
120.3

116. 1
116. 3
117.4
117.5

208.4

204.3

211.7
216. 0
219.7

208. 1
211.9
215.6

175.2
178.5
179.7
182.5

176.0
178.9
180.5
183.5

170. 1
173.1
175. 4
177. 7

169. 6
172.7
175.6
177.6

1966
1967
1968___

1969
1970
1971
1972 _
1973___
1974___
1975___

1976

_

1977*

1975: I
!!___._
III____

IV*___

117.2

Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates

,
1966____

1967
1968
1969
1970 __
1971
1972
1973___
1974___

1975
1976
1977"
1975: I
II
III

rv

1976: I
II
III
IV
1977: I
II
III

rv»___

6.0
1.9
5.4
3.0

2.3
—. 3
1.7
2.7

3.3
-.0
2.1
3.2

-.9
2.8
6.6
5.9
-2.4

-1. 1
2.7
6. 9
6. 0
-2.5

-1.6
—. 4
3. 6
3. 9
.4

-1.2
g
3.7
4.3
.4

-2.4
7.0
6.0

-2.6
7.3
5.9

-4. 1
2.7
3.5

-4. 1
3. 1
3.7
-12. 5
-3. 6
3. 3
7.6

5.5
2.0
5. 1
3. 0

-11. 6 -11.6 -12.7
6.5
7. 5
-2.8
12. 2
12. 5
4,2
4. 1
3.9
5.9
10.8
2.8
11.7
2.3
5.9
6.6
3.2
3.1
.3
2. 1
2.2
1.3
9.5
9. 6
3.3
8.5
9.5
8.8
5.2
-.2
4,8
4.4
4.6
4.1

4.6
.8
.6
3.3
4.2
7.9
.9
3.9

3.2
2.3
3.3
.3

2.5
1.9
3.2
—.2

7.0
5.6
7.6
7.0

5.8
7.3
6.5

3.7
3. 3
4. 1
6.6

3.4
3.8
3.9
6.6

3.2
2.9
3.9
47

2.9
3. 3
40
45

.7

.2
2.9
3.0
1.7
-2.9

7.2
6.6
5.7
8.2
9.4

6.7
6.6
5.8
7.8
9.4

6.4
3.2
2.7
6.2
12. 5

9.6
8.7
8.7

7.7
4.7
6.2

47
44
3.6
5.8
9.8
10.4
4.8
5. 1

4.9
4.5
3. 1
41
10. 5

9. 6
9. 1
8.8
13. 1
6.9
4.4
8. 1

6.5
3.5
2.7
6.0
12.7
7.9
4.5
6.4

11. 7
-3.3
-3.0
10.2

10.9
-2.8
-2.2
10.0

12.9
6.2
7.5
5.9

5. 1
4.9
5.8
8.6
5.4
7.6
2.9
6.4

4, 3
3.8
5.7
9.4

3. 1
48
41
46
44
7.2
5.2
5.4

3.2
2.9
1.9
-2.8
1.8
4.2
2.5

1.0
1.3
10.5
10. 6
8.9
7.7
-3.3
-1.9
6.8
7.8
3.5
5.7
2.8
2.6
— . 1 -1.9
5. 1
6. 1
-1.0
.8
5.4
3.8
.5
.5

1
Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars.
2 Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in production, including
hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on
establishment data.
•« Wages
wages and
anu salaries
salaries of
01 employees
employees plus
pius employers'
employers contributions
comnuuuons for
ior social
tasiiranee and private bewefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries,
and supplemental payments for the self-employed.

16




1.6
4. 1
2. 1

13.3
8.6
8.7
8. 5

11.8

6.5
8.5
6.9

6. 1

12. 1

7.4
6. 5
6.4

11.4
9.7
8.5
7.3
11.7
7.7
7.5
7.3

6.3
6.8
3.5
6.8

10.9
5. 1
5.5
14.2
5.7
6. 6
5.8
44
3.8
6.0
5.3
3.5
7.5
7.0
46

* Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.
NOTE.—Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original
data;
therefore
mayo^«
differ
slightly from percent changes based on indexes
T,«W«they
ho^«
c«0o««oii^
Cshown
D+wi ^«i« ^UJi^wiC V-uT i«—«vro
here SeasonaU
'
y adjusted data revised Beginning 1972.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

Industrial production fell 0.7 percent in January. Reduced motor vehicle production was responsible for much of the
decline, although severe winter storms also contributed significantly.
INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE)
180

INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIOSCALE)
160

UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION

TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

160

140

140

UTILITIES

120

120
100 r

1975

1974

mi11 l i t 11
1976

1977

-y~
'MINING

1978
100

MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION

1974

1975

1 1 1 1 . 1 1 1 n 11
1976

1977

1978

PERCENT (RATIO SCALE)
100

MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE
90

80

120 -

70
100 T

1978

1974

1974

1978

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCIs SOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

Total in dustrial
produ stion
Percent
Period
Index. change
1967=
from
100
year
earlier
1967 proportion
100. 00
9.2
1972
119.7
8.4
1973
•_ _ _ _ _ 129.8
1974
129. 3
^
-8.9
1975
117. 8
10. 2
1976
129. 8
5. 5
1977 9
137.0
1977: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July.
Aug___
Sept
Oct___
Nov v
Dec

1978: Jan*
1
2

_

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Seasonally adjusted]
Indusstry produiction ind<3xes, 1967 = 100
Mi•umfacturi ng
,
•
NonMining UtiliDurties
Total
durable
able
87.95
118. 9
129. 8
129. 4
116. 3
129.5
137. 1

51. 98
113. 7
127. 1
125. 7
109. 3
121. 7
129. 5

85. 97
126. 5
133. 8
134. 6
126. 4
140.9
148. 1

6. 86
113. 1
114. 7
115. 3
112. 8
114. 2
117.9

5.69
139. 4
145. 4
143. 7
146. 0
151.0
156. 6

83. 1
87. 5
84. 2
73. 6
80.2
82. 4

sao
92. 4
87.7
73. 6
80.4
81.9

132. 3
133. 2
135. 3
136. 1
137.0
137.8
138. 7
138. 1
138. 5
138. 9
139.3
139.6

5. 1
4.4
5.5
5.7
5. 6
6. 2
6. 1
5.2
6. 0
6.7
5. 9
5.0

131.6
132. 6
135. 1
135. 8
137. 1
137.8
138. 5
138.6
139. 0
139. 4
139.9
140. 5

123. 4
124. 0
126. 8
128. 0
129. 3
130. 5
131. 6
131. 3
131. 7
132.4
132. 6
133. 6

143. 4
145. 3
147. 0
147.0
148. 5
148. 4
148. 6
149. 4
149.5
149. 6
150. 6
150. 6

112. 8
116. 3
120. 6
119. 2
119. 5
122. 8
119. 8
115. 4
118. 0
119. 6
119. 0
113. 4

163.8
160. 3
154. 8
154. 0
156. 7
156. 8
161.4
155. 7
154. 1
154. 0
154.9
157.0

80. 4
80. 9
82. 1
82. 3
82. 8
83. 0
83. 1
82.9
82.9
82. 9
82.9
83.0

79. 4
80. 2
81. 6
82. 1
82. 7
83. 0
82.9
82.0
82. 0
82. 3
82. 3
81.7

138.6

4.8

139.0

131. 0

150.3

112. 0

160. 7

81.8

80.9

Output as percent of capacity.
Annual data are averages of four monthly indexes.
« Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Annual data are averages of
quarterly data.




Manufa eturing c£ipacityl ut ilizatioii
rate, p(3rcent
Federal Reserve
ser les
Whar- ,
ComTotal .
ton
merce2
Matemanuseries 3
series
facturrials
ing

.

83
86
83
77
81

91. 8
97. 1
93. 0
80.4
87.5
90. 2

83

88. 4

84

90. 4

82

90.9
-91. 0

Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of
Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), and Wharton School of Finance.

17

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND
SELECTED MANUFACTURES
[1967=100, seasonally adjusted]
Proclucts
Final]Products
Coiisumer goods

Period
Total

NonDurable durable
goods
goods

Total
1967 proportion
1970—
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977 "_
1977: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr..
May
June
July..
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec *
1978: Jan»-

-

-

-

A

47.82
105.3
106.3
115.7
124.4
125. 1
118.2
127.2
135.0
130.8
131. 6
133.3
134.1
134.7
135.4
136.8
136.3
136.8
136.5
137. 2
137.8
136.4

27.68
109.0
114.7
124.4
131.5
128.9
124. 0
136.2
143. 5
139.9
140.5
142.9
142.9
143. 1
143.8
145.4
144. 7
144. 9
144.9
145.4
145.7
143.6

7.89
106.1
118.8
133.8
146.2
135.3
121.4
141.4
153. 1
145.4
146. 1
152.4
151. 5
152.2
155. 8
158.0
154.7
155. 6
156. 8
155.4
156.0
149. 3

19. 79
110. 1
113. 1
120.6
125.6
126.3
125. 1
134. 1
139. 6
137.7
138.3
139.1
139.4
139.5
139. 1
140.3
140.6
140.7
140.1
141.4
141.6
141.3

Intern:lediate
prod ucts

Equif >ment
Total

Business

Total

20.14
100.1
94.7
103. 8
114. 5
120.0
110.2
114.6
123.3
118.4
119.2
120.0
122. 1
123.2
124. 1
124.8
124.9
125.6
125.0
125. 8
127.0
126. 5

12.63
107.0
104. 1
118.0
134.2
142.4
128.2
136. 3
149.2
142.3
143. 5
144.8
147. 1
148. 9
150. 1
151.2
151. 1
152. 1
152.6
153.5
154.8
154. 0

12.89
112.9
116.7
126.5
137.2
135.3
123. 1
137.2
145. 1
142.2
141.6
141. 8
142. 3
143.5
144.7
146. 3
146. 1
146.5
147.8
148.5
150. 1
149. 7

Construction
supplies
6.42
111. 0
116.8
128.4
139.8
134.5
116.3
132. 6
140. 7
136.2
135.6
136.4
137.2
138.7
139.9
141.2
141,7
143. 2
144.9
146.6
148.0
146,9

Materials

S9.29
109.2
111.3
122.3
133.9
132.4
115.5
130,6
136.9
131. 1
132.7
135.5
136.5
137.8
138.7
138.9
137.6
137.9
138.9
139.0
138.4
137.5

Supplementary
oup:
lergy
total

f

12.23
117. 0
119. 5
125. 2
128. 3
125. 5
125. 5
128.8
132. 6
134. 1
132. 9
132. 3
132. 1
132. 5
133. 5
135.6
131.4
132.5
133.0
133. 1
130.0
130.2

[1967=100, seasonally adjusted]
Diurable m anufactu res
Transp<Drtation
Primaryr metals
equip ment
Fabri- NonEleccated trical trical
Motor
mametal
maIron
veebiibprodchinand
Total
Total hicles
ery
ucts
ery
steel
and
parts

Period

4.21

Nonelurable rnanufaet tires

Lumber
and
products

Apparel
products

Print- Cheming
icals
and
and
Foods
pub- prodlishing ucts

A__

1967 proportion
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977"

6.57
106.6
100.2
112.1
126. 7
123. 1
96.4
108.9
110.1

104.7
96. 1
107.1
122.3
119. 8
95. 8
104.9
103. 3

6.93
102.4
103. 5
112.1
124. 7
124. 2
109. 9
123.3
130.9

9.15
104.4
100.2
116.0
133.7
140. 1
125. 1
135. 0
144.8

8.05
108.1
107.7
122.2
143. 1
143. 8
116. 5
131.6
141.9

9.27
89.5
97.9
108.2
118. 3
108.7
97.4
110.6
121.1

4.50
92. 3
118.6
135.8
148.8
128.2
111. 1
140. 7
159. 6

1.64
105.6
113.8
120.8
126. 0
116.2
107.6
125.1
133.0

3.31
101.4
104.7
109.4
117. 3
114.3
107.6
122.2

4. 72
107. 0
107. 1
112.7
118.2
118.2
113. 3
120.6
124.6

7. 74
120.4
125. 9
143. 6
1545
159.4
147.2
169.3
180.7

8. 75
108. 9
112. 8
116. 8
120. 9
124 0
123.4
132. 3
137.8

1977: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dee*

100.8
100.2
108.3
112.2
117.1
114. 7
114.4
112. 5
109.0
113. 5
111.2
109. 9

89. 7
91. 3
97.9
103.9
111.0
109.2
110.9
110. 6
104. 6
107.7
104.3
102. 5

125. 7
125. 8
127. 5
127.6
128.2
130.8
132. 0
134.0
133. 6
133.8
135.8
136.9

139. 9
139. 8
139.8
142.9
142. 6
144. 0
145.7
145.2
147.4
148. 9
149.7
151.6

134.0
137. 6
137. 6
139. 6
141.8
142.6
143.6
143. 9
144. 6
144.2
145.8
147.7

113.5
113.4
120.5
119.8
120.3
123. 7
125. 6
124. 3
125. 5
124.3
121.9
122. 7

145.5
145.4
161.2
158. 1
157. 7
163.2
166.2
164.4
165. 6
168.4
162.9
161.9

132.7
132.2
132. 1
130.6
133.0
132.4
132. 9
131. 8
137. 1
135.7
133.5
136.8

123.0
1244
122.2
121.4
123.5
122. 1
121. 1
124. 1
127.7
129.0
128. 1

124.7
122.4
124.8
123.4
124.4
124. 1
124.9
125. 0
124.2
125. 7
126.2
126.8

172. 2
174 9
180. 0
180. 6
182. 8
183. 5
182. 6
182. 6
181. 3
182. 3
183.4
182.6

134 2
136. 4
138. 7
138. 0
138. 3
136. 9
138. 3
139. 3
138. 3
137. 3
139.2
138.7

135.2

150.5

147.3

115.5

146.3

1978: Jan >

.

105.6

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System.

18



127. 9

NEW CONSTRUCTION
Construetio n contracts2

Private
Total new
construction
expenditures

Period

Besid ential
Total

Total1

Commercial and
industrial

New
housing
units

Other

Federal,
State,
and
local

CommerTotal value cial and
index
industrial
(1967= floor space
100)
(millions of
square feet)

Bil ions of dollsaxs

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977*..

__

110.0
124. 1
137. 9
138.5
1343
147.5
170. 7

80.1
93.9
105.4
100.2
93.6
109.5
133.7

43.3

35. 1
44.9
50. 1
40.6
34.4
47.3
65.1

543

59.7
50.4
46.5
60.5
81. 1

17.0

ia i

21.7
23.8
20.8
19.9
21.8

19.8
21.5
24.0
25.9
26.3
29.0
30.8

29. 9
30.2
32.5
38. 3
40. 7
38.0
37.0

Seasonally
adjusted

Seasonalli1 adjusted arinual rates

1977: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dee
1978: Jan»

,_..
_

._

148. 1
156. 9
163. 8
167.5
172. 1
174.6
173.0
172.0
175.9
177.8
177.8
180.2
173.2

116.2
122.4
128.4
131.3
133.7
135.2

isas

133.8
136. 7
140. 1
142.1
143.9
139.5

52. 1
58.3
62.2
63. 5
65.8
66.0
65. 1
65. 1
66.4

66.5
72.1
76.7
79.5
82.4
82.5
80.8
80.7
82.4
85.7
87.7
90.0
84.3

18.7
18. 8
20.8
21. 1
20.9
22.3
22.7
22.9
23. 5
23.4
23. 1
21.8
21.7

eas

70.4
73.0
67.7

1
Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations,
not shown separately.
a
F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 60 States beginning 1969 for value index and
beginning 1071 for floor space.

145.4
165.3
179.5
169.7
167.9
199.4
252.2

30.9
31.5
30.9
30.7
30.4
30.4
30.2
30.2
30.8
31. 0
31.4
32.1
33.4

32.0
34.5
35.4
36.2
38.4
39.4
39.2
38.2
39.3
37.7
35. 6
36.3
33.7

203
212
207
250
317
307
218
267
279
244
258
299
270

727
854

1,010

840
555
592
738
Seasonally
adjusted
annual
rates
643
615
309
671
758
733
702
853
813
757
847
864
996

.-^New construction expenditures data prior to 1973 not comparable with
later data.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.

NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES
[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]
New privjite homes

IS ew private aousing unit£

Period

1970.
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977*
1977: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug_-_
Sept__
Oct
Nov*
Dee*
1978: Jan*

Units started, by type of struicture
Total

1 unit

1, 433. 6
2, 052. 2
2. 356. 6
2, 045. 3
1, 337. 7
1, 160. 4
1, 537. 5
1, 986. 7

812. 9
1, 151. 0
1, 309. 2
1, 132. 0
888. 1
892.2
1, 162. 4
1, 450. 7

1,393
1,751
2, 090
1, 899
1,982
1, 931
2,072
2,038
2,012
2, 139
2,096
2,194
1,549

1,011
1,362
1,489
1,433
1,469
1,406
1,453
1,454
1,508
1,532
1,544
1,568
1,139

» Seasonally adjusted.
> Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter.




2-4
units

5 or more
units

Units
authorized

1, 351. 5
535.9
84.8
1, 924. 6
120.3
780.9
141.3
906.2
2, 218. 9
118.3
795.0
1, 819. 5
1, 074. 4
381.6
68. 1
939.2
64. 0
204 3
85. 9
289. 2
1, 296. 2
414. 4
121.7
1, 676. 6
Seasonally adjusted aninual rates
1, 333
104
278
1,526
273
116
1,687
114
487
1,605
118
348
1,615
393
120
1,678
412
113
1, 639
124
495
1,772
119
465
1,695
124
380
1,850
127
480
1,893
134
418
1,811
152
474
302
1,533
108

Units
completed

Homes
sold

Homes for
sale at
end of
period *

1, 418. 4
1, 706. 1
1, 971. 5
2, 013. 8
1, 691. 7
1, 296. 8
1, 362. 1
1, 652. 1

485
656
718
620
501
544
639
820

220
287
409
450
403
380
431
482

1,416
1,637
1,707
1,540
1, 536
1,647
1,671
1,699
1,901
1, 627
1,780
1,604

827
893
867
775
774
805
694
825
875
861
828
901

431
434
435
441
441
444
453
467
467
476
482
482

Vacancy
rate for
rental
housing
units
(percent)2
5.3
5.4

5. 6

5.8
6.2
6.0
5.6

5.1
5.3
5.4

5. 1

NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted housing starts revised beginning 1975.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

19

BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—TOTAL AND TRADE
Business sales rose 2% percent in December while inventories declined slightly. According to the advance survey,
retail sales fell 3 percent in January, following increases of about % percent in December and 11/3 percent in November.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALQ

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

100
400

90

350

TOTAL BUSINESS
INVENTORIES

RETAIL INVENTORIES
\

80

300

70

60

250

RETAIL SALES

50

200
40

SALES

ill

150
RATIO*
1.80

INVENTORY-SALES RATIO

100

1974

1975

1976

1977

1977

1978

1978

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCEi DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL Of ICONOMIC ADYIS6RS

Total biisiness x

Re tail

Who!esale
Sales

Period

GnlrtCi 2
bales

Inventories 3

ci „ i _ _ o Invenbales
^ tories 3

Tntftl

2

In ventorie 3

DurNonable durable
goods goods
stores stores

Tntil

3

DurNonable durable
goods goods
stores stores

Invento ry-4sales
rat io
Total
business *

Retail

Milli ons of d<Dllars, se asonally adjustec

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
„
1977"
1976: Dec
1977: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June..
July

Aug

Sept

Oct
Nov v
Dec
1978: Jan »
1
8 The

116, 351
130, 049
151, 647
174, 991
180, 229
200, 118
223, 103
212, 095
209, 950
215, 281
221, 903
221, 167
221, 327
222, 240
221, 255
223, 604
224, 242
227, 536
230, 386
236, 371

188, 180
202, 291
233, 340
285, 275
281, 837
306, 325
332, 035
306, 325
309, 063
311, 232
314, 875
317, 873
320, 492
322, 899
324, 107
326, 849
329, 510
330, 460
332, 674
332, 035

26, 257
29, 584
36, 822
45,836
44, 633
48, 408
53, 524
50, 935
50, 678
51, 857
52, 672
53, 385
53, 866
53, 735
53, 495
53, 208
53, 307
53, 639
55, 558
57, 471

35, 823
39, 786
46, 254
56, 537
55, 113
61, 307
67, 398
61, 307
62, 123
63, 062
64, 300
65, 301
64, 838
64, 947
64, 210
65, 095
66, 119
66, 209
67, 047
67, 398

34, 169
37, 422
41, 871
44, 543
48, 370
53, 542
59, 020
56, 685
55, 703
57, 291
57, 990
58, 142
58, 003
57, 825
58, 552
59, 020
59, 014
60, 778
61, 588
61, 971
60, 073

term "business" also includes maau£actiuiiig (see page 21).
Monthly average for year and total for month,
J Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted.
* For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly
Bales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month.

20



10, 827
12, 369
14, 091
13, 820
14, 907
17, 544
19, 897
19, 038
18, 860
19, 382
19, 863
19, 833
19, 516
19, 436
19, 505
19, 984
19, 763
20, 895
20, 733
20, 862
19, 600

23, 342
25, 054
27, 781
30, 723
33, 463
35, 998
39, 122
37, 647
36, 843
37, 909
38, 127
38, 309
38, 487
38, 389
39, 047
39, 036
39, 251
39, 883
40, 855
41, 109
40, 473

49, 867
54, 433
62, 691
70, 767
71, 031
78, 431
87, 917
78, 431
79, 458
79, 721
81, 196
81, 825
83, 025
84, 134
85, 326
86, 650
87, 227
87, 462
88, 465
87, 917

21, 706
23, 929
27, 725
32, 007
31, 632
35, 067
39, 097
35, 067
35, 588
35, 516
36, 150
36, 094
36, 818
37, 104
38, 130
38, 577
38, 515
38, 752
39, 134
39, 097

28, 161
30, 504
34, 966
38, 760
39, 399
43, 364
48, 820
43, 364
43, 870
44, 205
45, 046
45, 731
46, 207
47, 030
47, 196
48, 073
48, 712
48, 710
49, 331
48, 820

1.58
1.49
1.43
1.48
1.57
1.47
1.44
1.44
1.47
1.45
1.42
1.44
1.45
1.45
1.46
1.46
1.47
1.45
1. 44
1.41

1.39
1.38
1.40
1.49
1.45
1.41
1.42
1.38
1.43
1.39
1.40
1.41
1.43
1.45
1.46
1.47
1.48
1.44
1,44
1.42

Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau
of the Census).

MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND NEW ORDERS
Manufacturers View orders rose 4% percent in December and shipments rose 3t4 percent. Inventories declined
slightly from their November level. In January, according to advance data, durable goods orders and shipments fell,
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

40

120 L NEW ORDERS

TOTAL

100

80

RATIO*
2.20

60

o fin

INVENTO RY-SHIPMEhm

1.80

40

/

"X

RATIO
'-• '

1.60

"V

1.40 _
1.20
1975

1974

1976

1977

1 11 11 11 11 11

M I I I I t| I1 I

1978

1975

1974

1977

1976

55, 925
1971
63,042
1972
72, 954
1973
84, 612
1974
87, 226
1975
98, 168
1976
110, 612
1977
1977: Jan.__ 103, 569
Feb.__ 106, 133
Mar__. 111, 241
109, 640
Apr
May__ 109, 458
June__ 110, 680
July... 109, 208
Aug___ 111, 376
Sept... 111, 921
Oct-__ 113, 119
Nov__. 113, 240
Dec—. 116, 929
1978: Jan"—

NonDurable durable
goods
goods

29, 973
34, 042
39, 704
44, 043
43, 912
50, 376
57, 690
53, 341
54, 703
58, 849
56, 764
56, 717
57, 570
56, 820
58, 087
58, 608
59, 262
59, 154
61, 675
60, 123




1978

25, 953
28, 999
33, 250
40, 569
43, 313
47, 792
52, 921
50, 228
51, 430
52, 392
52, 876
52, 741
53, 110
52, 388
53, 289
53, 313
53, 857
54, 086
55, 254

Manufacturerg ' new ord ers1

Durab e goods
ManufacCapital
NonNonturers'
goods
Durable
Total
Total
indus- durable unfilled3
goods durable
Total
goods orders
goods
tries,
nondefense
Millio ns of dolkirs, seasoELally adjussted

102, 490
108, 072
124, 395
157, 971
155, 693
166, 587
176, 720
167, 482
168, 449
169, 379
170, 747
172, 629
173, 818
174, 571
175, 104
176, 164
176, 789
177, 162
176, 720

66, 149
70, 098
81, 218
101, 780
100, 310
105, 729
112, 558
106, 562
107, 222
107, 685
108, 190
109, 154
110, 421
110, 978
111, 452
111, 787
111, 904
112, 548
112, 558

i Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales.
Book value, end of period.
* End of period.
< For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly
shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipment!
for month.
J

1! ! II 1 ! 1 11 1

COUNCrt. OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Manufac turers' shi pments 1 Manufact urers' inv entories 2|

Total

-

v

t J 1 I jj M 1 I 1 f ! I I 1 1 II! II

*SEASONAUY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Period

'"

TOTAL

36, 341
37, 974
43, 177
56, 191
55, 382
60, 858
64, 162
60, 920
61, 227
61, 694
62, 557
63, 475
63, 397
63, 593
63, 652
64, 377
64, 885
64, 614
64, 162

55, 937
64, 246
76, 217
86, 988
85, 659
98, 497
112, 169
105, 288
106, 575
111, 788
111, 547
111, 693
111, 524
108, 598
111, 494
112, 441
116, 543
116, 068
121, 566

29, 951
35, 142
42, 888
46, 570
42, 164
50, 681
59, 192
55, 037
55, 133
59, 160
58, 652
59, 176
58, 378
56, 031
58, 270
59, 048
62, 503
61, 984
66, 162
63, 236

7,575
8, 947
11, 169
12, 656
10, 899
12,820
15,271
14, 621
14, 249
14, 561
14, 679
15, 000
15,535
14,409
14, 678
16, 189
16, 502
15, 883
17, 366
16, 554

25, 986
29, 104
33, 329
40, 418
43, 495
47, 816
52, 977
50, 251
51, 442
52, 628
52, 895
52, 517
53, 146
52, 567
53, 224
53, 393
54, 040
54, 084
55, 404

107, 656
122, 362
161, 766
190, 271
171, 438
175, 453
194, 056
177, 179
177, 623
178, 167
180, 065
182, 301
183, 150
182, 541
182,646
183, 166
186, 590
189, 416
194, 056

Manufacturers*
inven-

t

3h£T

snipments
ratio *

1.83
1.67
1.58
1.66
1.80
1.64
1.56
1. 62
1.59
1.52
1.56
1.58
1.57
1.60
1.57
1.57
1.56
1.56
1.51

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

21

PRICES

WHOLESALE PRICES

In January, the wholesale price index rose 0.9 percent (also 0.9 percent seasonally adjusted). The index for finished
goods rose 0.7 percent (0.6 percent seasonally adjusted).
INDEX, 1967« 100 (RATIO SCALE)
220

INDEX, 1967=100 [RATIO SCALE)
220

200

I
f FARM PRODUCTS AND*
PROCESSED FOODS AND FEEDS

120

100

100

1978

1970
SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1967=100]

Farm
products Industrial
Finand proc- comished
modimod-

An

Period

ties

f

A

and feeds

110. 4
114. 0
119. 1
134 7
160. 1
174.9
183. 0
194. 2

ities

goods

Farm
products

Processed
foods
and
feeds

Stage of fabric.ation gro upings

ProCons umer fin ished
ducer
goods excluding5 foods
finDurNonished Total
able durable
goods
108. 3
118. 9 109. 9 112. 0 107. 7 106.9
123. 1 114 3 116. 6 111. 4 110. 8
111.7
113. 6
131. 1 118. 9 119. 5 113.4 113.2
120. 5
155. 2 128. 1 123. 5 118.5 115.8
146. 8
219. 1 159. 5 141. 0 138. 6 126. 3
163. 0
225. 1 178. 6 162. 5 153. I 138. 2
173. 3
249.9 189. 5 173. 2 161. 8 144 4
280.4 202. 4 184.5 172. 1 152. 1
185. 4
Seasonalbf ad juste d
262. 5 196. 2 178. 9 167. 2 148. 0
180. 0
181. 2
275. 1 197. 5 179. 9 168,1 148.7
182. 7
279. 0 199. 1 180. 7 169. 2 149. 4
184 2
279.7 200. 5 181. 7 170. 7 150.6
185. 2
281. 4 201. 2 182. 8 171. 5 151. 3
186. 1
279. 0 201.8 183. 7 172.4 151.9
186.2
278. 8 203. 2 1845 172. 6 152. 4
282. 5 204 3 185. 5 i7ao 153.6
186. 1
282. 6 205. 4 186. 4 1742 153. 9
187.6
188.0
283. 1 206. 0 188. 9 1748 1549
188.7
288. 1 206.4 189. 9 175. 4 155. 4
189. 5
293. 3 207. 3 191. 1 176. 0 156. 0
190. 2
299. 1 209. 2 192. 0 176. 9 157. 1

Crude
materials *

Intermediate
mate-2
rials

111. 7 110.0 110. 3 111. 0 112. 1
113.9 114 1 113. 7 112. 9 114 5
122.4 117. 9 117.2 125. 0 120. 8
159. 1 125. 9 127.9 176.3 148. 1
177.4 153.8 147.5 187.7 170.9
184 2 171. 5 163.4 186. 7 182.6
183. 1 182.4 170. 3 191. 0 178. 0
188.8 195. 1 180. 6 192. 5 186. 1
Unadj listed
188. 1
184 8 188.4 175. 1 193. 0 178. 8
1977: Jan
190. 2
188.4 190.0 176. 6 197.4 182. 3
Feb
192. 0
190.0 191. 7 177.5 203.5 185. 5
Mar
1943
195. 9 193. 3 178.8 208.8 189. 1
Apr.
May..
195.2
19a 8 1942 180.3 203. 4 192. 2
194 5
191. 5 1947 180. 5 192. 3 189. 2
June
194 8
188.7 195.9 181.3 188. 0 184 7
July
1842 196. 9 181. 3 181. 8 184 7
1946
Aug.
195. 3
183. 9 197. 8 181. 8 181. 1 183. 6
Sept
1842 199. 1 183. 9 183.5 1848
196. 3
>ct
197. 0
Nov
186. 8 199.2 1845 189.2 188. 1
198.2
189.5 200. 0 185.5 188.7 189. 3
Dec
192. 1 201. 5 186.8 192.0 190.8
1978: Jan
199. 9
1
* Includes supplies and components; excludes intermediate materials for food
Excludes crude foodstuffs and feedstufis, plant and animalfibers,oilseeds, and
manufacturing and manufactured animal feeds.
leaf tobacco.
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976...
1977

22




NOTS.—Seasonally adjusted data revised begiimiiig 1973.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

CONSUMER PRICES
In January, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.6 percent (0.8 percent seasonally adjusted). Food
prices increased 1.5 percent (1.3 percent seasonally adjusted). Nonfood commodity prices rose 0.1 percent (0.7
percent seasonally adjusted) and services prices were up 0.7 percent (0.6 percent seasonally adjusted).
INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALl)

INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE)
220

200

100

100

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1977

1976

1978

SEE NOTE ON TABLE BILOW
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1967=100]

Period

1970
1971. _ _
1972
1973
1974__
1975
1976
1977

All
items

Food

Commodities
less
food

116.3
121.3
125. 3
133. 1
147. 7
161.2
170.5
181.5

114. 9
118.4
123.5
141.4
161. 7
175. 4
180.8
192.2

112.5
116.8
119.4
123.5
136. 6
149. 1
156.6
165. 1

Comrjnodities less food

Food

All
All

Services

Services

commodities

All

Food
at
home

Food
away
from
home

All

Durable

Nondurable

121. 6
128.4
133.3
139. 1
152. 1
166. 6
180.4
194. 3

113. 5
117.4
120.9
129. 9
145.5
158.4
165. 2
174. 7

114. 9
118.4
123. 5
141. 4
161.7
175.4
180.8
192. 2

113.7
116.4
121. 6
141.4
162.4
175.8
179.5
190.2

119.9
126. 1
131. 1
141. 4
159.4
174.3
186. 1
200. 3

112.5
116. 8
119.4
123. 5
136. 6
149. 1
156.6
165. 1

111.8
116.5
118. 9
121. 9
130. 6
145. 5
154.3
163.2

113. 1
117. 0
119. 8
124. 8
140.9
151.7
158.3
166. 5

121.6
128.4
133. 3
139. 1
152. 1
166.6
180.4
194.3

Seasonal Ly adjust ed

Unac[justed

1977: Jan
Feb____
Mar
Apr
May—
June_
July...
Aug
Sept___
Oct
Nov
Dec

175.3
177. 1
178. 2
179.6
180.6
181. 8
182. 6
183. 3
184.0
184.5
185.4
186. 1

183.4
187.7
188.6
190. 9
191.7
193.6
194. 6
195.2
194. 5
194.4
195.6
196.3

160.6
161. 6
162.6
163.6
164.7
165.4
165.6
166. 0
166. 7
167.4
168. 1
168.4

187.4
188. 7
190.0
191. 2
192. 2
193.7
195. 3
196.3
197.7
198. 5
199.5
200.5

169. 3
171. 3
172.3
173.7
174.4
175. 1
175. 2
175.7
176.2
176.7
177.5
178.3

183.5
187.4
188.6
191.5
192.6
193. 8
193. 5
194.3
194.7
195. 0
196.0
196.7

181. 2
185.7
186.8
189. 8
190.9
191.9
191.3
192. 0
192. 3
192. 5
193.5
194.2

192. 3
193.7
195.4
197.5
199.3
200.9
201.8
203.0
203. 8
204. 5
205. 1
206. 1

161. 7
162.7
163.4
164. 1
164. 6
165. 1
165.4
165.7
166.2
166.8
167.6
168.4

159.9
161. 1
161.9
162. 6
163. 3
163.3
163.4
163. 6
163.9
164.4
165.1
166.0

162.8
163.7
164. 5
165. 0
165. 8
166.4
166.9
167.2
167.8
168.6
169.4
169.9

187.3
188.4
190. 0
191.4
192. 9
194.3
195.7
196. 8
197.9
198.7
199.5
200.3

L978: Jan

187.2

199.2

168.6

202.0

179.9

199.2

197.0

208.4

169.5

167.6

170.6

201.5

Note.—Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. Earlier
data relate to urban wage earners and clerical workers.
Seasonally adjusted data revised.




Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

23

CHANGES IN WHOLESALE PRICES

Period

Farm
Indusproducts
trial
and
comprocessed modifoods and
ties
feeds

AH
commodities

1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1977: Jan..
Feb._
Mar_.
Apr__
May,
June.
JulyAug..
Sept..
Oct..
Nov..
Dec..
If 78: Jan..

4.8
2.2
4. 1
6.3
15.4
20.9
4.2
4.7
5.9
.5
1. 1
11
1 0
4
-5
1
2
3
6
7
4
.9

7.5
-1.4
6.0
14.4
26.7
11.0
*~ 3
-1. 1
3.0
.2
2. 1
2.2
2.2
0
-3.0
-2.3
-1.2
"""""• O

.9
2.3
.3
1.1

3.9

ae

3.4
3.4
10. 7
25.6
6.0
6.4
6.7
6
8
7
7
5
3
6
6
5
5
3
5
.7

Perec>nt change f rom 6 m onths
ear lier; seasona lly adjuested
annual rates

Percent change fi'om 3 me>nths
ear' ier; seasonally adjusted
annual irates

Peree nt change fr om prec eding
1
peri<3d; seasonally adjusl^d

Finished
goods
4.8
2.2
3.2
3.8
11,8
18. 3
6.6
3.3
6.6
6
10
8
7
8
1
2
2
4
6
6
5
.6

AH
commodities

Farm
products Industrial
and
comprocessed modifoods and
ties
feeds

6. 6
9. 3
11. 1
13.6
10.5
4.0
0
-1.0
1.9
4.2
6.3
6.9

ao

1

9.4
17.9
19. 3
29. 5
19. 3
-3. 1
-19.2
-22. 9
— 15. 0
-3.4
10.8
14.7
15.8

5. 9
7.0
8.8
9.4
8.0
6.4
5.9
6. 1
7. 0
6.3
5.0
47

ao

Finished
goods

All
commodities

7.9
10.6
10.0
10.5
9.4
6.4
4.3
1. 8
2.9
4.7
6.5
7.0
7.2

5.0
7.4
8. 5
10. 1
9.9
7.5
6.6
4.6
2.9
2. 1
2. 6
4. 4
6. 1

Farm
products Industrial
and
comprocessed modifoods and
ties
feeds

-1.6
7.4
11. 8
19.0
18. 6
7.5
2.3
-4. 1
-9.2
-11.6
-7.6
-1.3
5,8

6.9
7.4
7.6
7.7
7.5
7.6
7,7
7. 1
6.7
6.1
5.5
5.8
6.1

Finished
goods

5.4
7.9
8,4
9.2
10.0
8.2
7.3
5.5
4.7
4.5
4.1
4.9
5.9

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted).
N«TI,—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1973,

CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES
Percen t changej from pre ceding
perio d; seasoilally adju sted1

1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1977: Jan...
Feb...
Mar...
Apr_
May..
June. .
July...
Aug...
Sept...
Oct...
Nov...
Dec.__

6.1
5. 5
3.4
3.4
8.8
12. 2
7.0
4.8
6.8
.8
1.0
.6
.8
.6
.5
.3
.4
.4
.3
.4
.4

7.2
2.2
4. 3
4. 7
20. 1
12.2
6.5
.6
8.0
.8
2. 1
.6
1.5
.6
.6
—.2
,4
.2
.2
.5
.4

Commodities
less
food
4.5
4.8
2. 3
2.5
5.0
13.2
6.2
5. 1
4. 9
.7
.6
.4
.4
.3
.3
.2
.2
.3
.4
.5
.5

1978: Jan...

.8

1.3

,7

Period

All
items

Food

Services

Percent c tiange frc>m 3 months earlier, Percent change frc>m 6 mont hs earlier ;
seasonsilly adju<sted annu al rates
seasonsilly adju sted annu al rates
All
items




Services

All
items

7.4
8.2
4. 1
3.6
6.2
11. 3
8. 1
7.3
7.9
.9
.6
.8
.7
.8
.7
.7
.6
.6
.4
.4
.4

5.9
9. 1
10. 0
10.2
8.4
7.8
5.7
5. 0
4.5
4. 5
4. 7
49

3. 1
13.7
15.3
18.6
11.6
11.5
4.2
3.6
1.9
3. 1
3.5
4.2

7.0
7.7
7.4
6. 1
4.8
4.2
3.2
2.7
2.7
3.4
4.7
5.4

6.9
7.6
9.8
9,0
9.9
9.4
9.3
8.3
7.6
6.3
5.6
4.9

6. 1
5. 1
4.8
4.7

.6

a7

a9

6.6

5.8

5.6

1
Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted).
Note.—Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. Earlier data
relate to urban wage earners and clerical workers.

24

Food

Commodities
less
food

5.6
6. 6
7. 1
8.0

a7
&9
7.9

ae

Food

Commodities
less
food

2.7
6. 5
7.7
10.6
12.6
13.4
11.2
7.5
6. 6
3.7

ae
ao
ao

Seasonally adjusted data revised.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistic*.

6.2
6. 6
6.5
6.5
6,2
5.8
4. 6

a7
3.5
as
a7

4.0

6.0

Services

7.0
6. 8
7.4
8.0
8.7
9. 6
9.2
9. 1
8.5
7. 8
7. 0

as
ao

PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received by farmers rose 3 percent in the month ended February 15. Contributing most to the increase were
higher prices for cattle, hogs, eggs, oranges, broilers, and calves. Partially offsetting were lower prices for soybeans,
tomatoes, and strawberries. Prices paid by farmers were up 1 percent from the January 15 level.

mas RECEIVED
(ALL FARM PRODUCTS) .

PRICES PAID
(ALL ITEMS, INTEREST,
TAXES, AND WAGE RATES)

120

120

100

100

RATIO 110

110

PARITY RATIO (ACTUAL)

100

100

90

90

80
70

70

dj
1970

1971

1972

1973

60
'

1974

I

1976

1975

1977

J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES, ON 1918 ~14»)00 BASE,
SOURC& KPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Prices paid by farmers
items,
Livestock All
Family
Producinterest,
and
living
tion
taxes,
and
items
items
products wage rates
Index, 1<567 = 100

Prices received by farmers
Period

1970.
1971.
1972.
1973 _
1974.
1975.
1976,
1977.

1977

Jan 15..
Feb 15».
Mar 15_.
Apr 15.,
May 15.

June 15.
July 15_.

Aug 15..
Sept 15..

Oct 15..
Nov 15..
Dec 15-

1978: Jan 15 4
Feb 15 ...

All farm
products

Crops

Parity ratio 1
Actual

Adjusted2

110
113
125
179
192
185
186
183

100
108
114
175
224
201
197
193

118
118
136
183
165
172
177
175

112
118
125
144
164
180
191
202

114
118
123
133
151
166
176
(3)

108
113
121
146
166
182
193
200

72
71
74
91
86
76
71
67

77
75
79
94
87
76
72
68

183
186
190
191
193
184
180
175
174
178
179
181

198
203
211
214
214
198
182
173
171
178
185
183

170
174
171
172
176
173
179
177
177
177
174
180

198
200
202
204
204
204
203
201
201
201
202
203

182
(33)
(8)
()
(33)
(3)
()
(33)
(3)
()
(33)
()

196
199
201
204
205
203
201
198
197
198
199
199

68
69
69
69
70
66
65
64
63
65
65
66

69
70
70
70
71
68
66
65
65
66
66
67

186
192

188
188

185
196

209
211

(3)

203
206

65
67

67
69

1
Percentage ratio of index of prices received by fanners to index of pices paid,
interest taxes, and wage rates on 1910-14=100 base.
* The adjusted parity ratio reflects Government payments made directly to
Carmers.




1978

(3)

8
Index discontinued. Consumer price index (Department of Labor) substituted
in calculating total prices paid beginning January 1977.
< Not charted.
Source; Department of Agriculture.
OR

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
MONEY STOCK
Although Mi grew by 7.4 percent (annual rate) from December to January, the growth rate slowed substantially
within the month of January.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE}

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*

(RATIO SCALE)

300

-200

1978
'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Over all measiires1

Deposi ts at co]nmercia banks
Period
M,

M2

M,

Currency

Tim e and savings

Demand
Total

1972: Dee—
1973: Dee—
1974: Dec
1975: Dec—
1976: Dee—
1977: Dec__
1977: Feb.Mar-Apr
May-.
June__
July.Aug—
Sept__
Oct___
Nov.Dec_ —
1978: Jan"..

255.3
270.5
283. 1
294.8
312.4
335.4
314.0
315.4
320. 5
320.7
321. 9
326. 8
328. 4
330. 4
333.7
333.3
335.4
337.4

525. 3
571.4
612.4
664. 3
740.3
806. 5
750.7
756.1
764. 6
767. 6
772.8
783.5
787.7
792. 9
799. 6
802.7
806.5
812. 0

844.5
919.6
981. 5
1, 092. 6
1, 237. 1
1, 374. 0
1, 258. 2
1, 268. 1
1, 281. 2
1, 289. 0
1, 299. 5
1, 316. 9
1, 329. 5
1, 343. 1
1, 357. 1
1, 365. 6
1, 374. 0
1, 383. 0

56.9
61. 5
67.8
73.7
80.5
88.4
81.8
82.2
83. 1
83. 6
84.0
85. 1
85.5
86. 4
87. 1
87.8
88.4
89.2

198.4
209. 0
215. 3
221. 0
231. 9
247. 0
232. 1
233.2
237.4
237. 1
238.0
241. 7
242. 9
244. 0
246.6
245. 5
247. 0
248.2

313.5
363.9
418. 3
451. 7
491. 1
545.8
500.0
502.8
505. 7
509. 2
514.8
519. 5
522. 5
525.8
532.2
540.3
545. 8
550.9

1
MI is currency plus demand deposits; M2 is Mi plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large certificates of deposit (CDs); and Ma is Ms plus
deposits at nonbank thrift institutions.

26




Pensent2
change

Compon ents and related ii .ems

Large
CDs
43.5
63. 0
89. 0
82. 1
63.3
74.7
63.3
62.2
61.6
62. 3
63. 9
62.8
63.2
63.2
66.4
70. 9
74.7
76.3

Other
270. 0
300. 9
329.3
369. 6
427. 9
471. 1
436.7
440. 6
444. 1
446. 9
450. 9
456.7
459.3
462.6
465. 9
469.4
471. 1
474. 6

Deposits
at
nonbank
thrift
institutions

U.S. Government
demand
deposits
(unadjusted)

319.3
348. 1
369. 1
428.3
496.8
567. 5
507.5
512. 1
516.6
521.4
526.7
533. 5
541.7
550.2
557.5
563. 0
567. 5
571.0

7.4
6. 3
4. 9
4. 1
4. 7
5.5
4.4
4. 5
5.6
3.8
5.2
3.9
3. 7
5.4
4.1
3.8
5.5
4.6

Mi

9.2
6.0
4.7
4. 1
6.0
7.4
5.0
5. 6
6. 6
6.7
6.2
8.5
9.4
9. 7
8.4
8.0
8.6
6.6

M2

11.4
8. 8
7.2
8.5
11.4
8.9
11.7
11.4
10.9
9.9
9.0
10.2
10.1
10.0
9.4
9.3
8.9
7.4

2
Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are
from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

PRIVATE LIQUID ASSET HOLDINGS— NONFINANCIAL INVESTORS
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Curre ncy and c deposits

U.S. T]reasury
secuiities

Time o eposits

Negotiable
certificates of
deposit

Other
private
money
market
instruments

Total
liquid
assets

Total

769.5
851.8
967.4
1, 079. 2
1, 166. 9
1, 290. 4
1, 423. 7
1, 598. 7

632.4
718.9
817.0
887. 5
945. 2
1, 054. 4
1, 194. 2
1, 329. 4

49. 1
52.6
56.9
61.5
67. 8
73. 7
80. 5
88. 4

151. 8
161.6
176.4
183. 3
187. 2
191. 7
198.8
213.2

198.9
233. 6
2645
294. 5
321. 2
360. 6
418. 1
460. 3

232.7
271. 1
319. 3
348. 1
369. 1
428.3
496.8
567.6

52.0
54.3
57.6
60.4
63.3
67.2
71.9
76.6

41.9
31. 3
34. 4
43.3
47.5
66.5
66. I
76.2

21.8
27.7
36.3
70.4
59.4
44.2
54. 0

21.4
19.6
22.2
34. 3
40. 5
43. 0
47. 4
62.5

1, 207. 6
1, 216. 7
1, 226. 0
1, 239. 4
1, 246. 3
1, 256. 0
1, 273. 4
1, 284. 7
1, 299. 0
1, 313. 5
1, 321. 4
1, 329. 4

81.1
81. 8
82.2
83. 1
83. 6
84. 0
85. 1
85.5
86. 4
87. 1
87.8
88.4

200.9
200. 1
200.9
205.5
204. 5
205. 0
208.7
208.6
209. 9
213. 3
212.0
213. 2

423. 0
427.2
430.8
434.2
436. 8
440. 4
446. 1
448. 9
452. 5
455. 7
458.6
460.3

502. 6
507. 5
512. 1
516.6
521.4
526. 7
533. 5
541.7
550.2
557.5
563.0
567.6

72.3
72.6
73.0

Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

1, 438. 5
1, 453. 6
1, 464. 3
1, 478. 6
1, 486. 8
1, 499. 6
1. 519. 4
1, 534. 1
1, 549. 7
1, 570. 2
1, 585. 2
1, 598. 7

73. 8
74.2
74.7
75. 1
75.4
75. 8
76.2
76.6

66.9
70.3
70.3
70.0
69.2
68.4
69.8
71.8
72.5
74.4
75.8
76.2

43. 6
44.2
43.3
42. 5
42.8
44. 3
43. 4
43. 8
43.5
46.8
50.8
54. 0

48. 1
49.7
51.7
53. 3
54.7
56.6
58. 1
58.7
59. 3
59. 9
61.0
62. 5

1978: Jan »

1, 610. 0

1, 338. 7

89.2

214.7

463. 5

571. 2

77.0

75.8

55.3

63.3

Period

1970:
1971:
1972:
1973:
1974:
1975:
1976:
1977:

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec..
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec

1977: Jan_
Feb
Mar
Apr__
May__ _ _
June._ _
July
Aug

_

Currency

Demand
deposits

Commercial
banks

ShortNonbank
term
Savings marketthrift
institu- bonds able securities

7a4

sas

Source: Board of Goyernors of the Federal Reserve System.

CONSUMER INSTALMENT CREDIT
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Instalm ent credit e ^tended
Period
Total i

1970
1971
1972
1973___
1974
1975
1976
1977
1976: Dec
1977: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

Automobile

Total i

107,
113,
121,
138,
147,
156,
172,
194,

30, 094
35, 820
42, 700
48, 399
45, 429
51, 413
62, 988
72, 907

6,768
8, 377
10, 390
13, 863
17, 098
20, 428
25, 862
31, 761

17, 677

5,869

2,297

5,511
5,819
6, 199
6, 106
6, 048
6, 063
5, 966
6, 158
6, 109
6,083
6,330
6,743

i Includes some items not shown separately.




Bank
credit
cards

112, 296
123, 826
137, 117
157, 863
157, 200
164, 169
193, 328
225, 608
17, 241
17, 595
18, 496
18, 784
18, 503
18, 810
18, 631
19, 204
19, 164
19, 787
19, 680
20, 108

Instalm<3nt credit li(juidated

2, 182
2,408
2,406
2,576
2, 621
2,640
2,566
2,711
2, 847
2, 973
2,828
2,973

Automobile

Bank
credit
cards

Net changej in amount outstanding
Total *

Automobile

Bank
credit
cards

444
784
926
156
920
665
795
533

30, 440
31, 614
37, 188
42, 642
44, 929
48, 406
52, 750
59, 610

5,615
7,679
9, 472
12, 433
15, 655
19, 208
24, 012
28, 851

4,852
10, 043
15, 191
19, 707
9,280
7, 504
20, 533
31, 075

3, 007
10, 238
13, 297

1,430
1,443
1,220
1,850
2, 911

15, 236

4,667

2,228

2,442

1,201

69

4, 712
4,801
4,816
4,901
4, 801
5, 100
4,897
5,104
5,005
5,234
5,089
5,414

2,176
2,201
2, 142
2,298
2,430
2,403
2,382
2,396
2, 567
2, 687
2,585
2,723

2, 156
1, 984
2,971
2,898
2, 655
2,422
2,464
2, 651
2,351
2, 626
2,853
2,696

799

6
207
263
278
192
238
184
315
279
287
243
250

15, 084
15, 610
15, 525
15, 886
15, 849
16, 388
16, 167
16, 553
16, 814
17, 160
16, 826
17, 413

-347
4,207
5, 512
5, 758
500

1, 019
1,383
1,205
1,247
963

1, 069
1,054
3, 105

850

1,241
1,328

1, 153

699
918

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System.

27

BANK LOANS, INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES
Total loans and investments at commercial banks grew strongly in January with the loan growth widely spread across
loan categories.
BRIIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALQ

WLUONS OF DOttARS*(RATIO SCAtQ

1,000

=ALl

J1/000

COMMERCIAL BANKS-

TOTAL
800

-LOANS AND INVESTMENTS

800

400

600

400

400

200

200
INVESTMENT IN OTHER SECURITIES

100

100

80

80

INVESTMENT IN
US. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES

40

40
1970

1971

1972

1974

1973

1975

1976

"'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, END OF MONTH
SOURCE, BOARD OP GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

"P/vrinrl

1970
1971 „ - ..
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977"
1977: Jan
Feb
Mar
„_
Apr
May
„
June
„
July *
Aug*
Sept*_.. „ _ _
Get"
_
Nov?
Dec*
1978: Jan *
1




1978

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
All c ommercial 1 >anks l
All mesmber banks
Borrowiiigs (milL oans
Investrnents
Ileserves 2 *
lions of dollars,
Total
unadJListed) 2
loans
and Total ex- Commer- U.S. Gov- Other
invest- cluding cial and
NonReSeaernment
secuTotal
Total
ments
inter- industrial securities
borrowed quired
sonal
rities
bank

4

435.5
485. 7
558. 0
633.4
690. 4
721. 1
784.4
865.4
787. 3
797.9
805. 1
815. 7
823. 9
830. 5
837,0
845. 6
848.4
857. 9
866. 1
865.4

292. 0
320.9
37a9
449. 0
500.2
496. 9
538.9
612.9
541.4
546. 6
552. 9
560.7
566. 1
572.4
579. 0
587.0
592. 2
602. 5
611.2
612.9

110.0
116. 1
130.2
156. 4
183. 3
176. 0
8
179. 5
6
202. 2
180. 4
182.2
184.4
186. 7
188. 2
190.2
192.4
194. 6
195. 1
199. 3
201. 6
6
202. 2

57.8
60.6
62.6
54.5
50.4
79.4
97.3
93.5
97. 0
101. 7
103.8
103.2
105. 1
105. 2
103. 6
103. 1
100. 1
97.8
95.0
93.5

85. 7
104.2
116.5
129. 9
139. 8
144. 8
148.2
159.0
148. 9
149.6
148.4
151. 8
152. 7
152. 9
154.4
155. 5
156. 1
157.6
159. 9
159. 0

29. 12
31.22
31.41
34.94
36. 60
34. 73
3495
36.21
34. 78
34.40
34. 31
34.68
34. 72
34. 86
35. 35
35.64
35. 63
35. 90
36. 01
36.21

28. 79
31. 10
30.36
33. 64
35.87
34. 60
3490
35. 64
34 71
3433
3420
34 61
34 52
34 60
35.03
34 58
35. 00
34 59
35. 15
35. 64

321
28.87
31. 04
107
31. 12
1,049
34 64
1,298
36. 34
703
3446 1
127
62
3468 1
36, 02
558
34 51
61
3420
79
110
3409
3449 1
73
200
34 51
262
34 71
35.08
336
35. 44
1,071
634
35. 42
35. 69
1, 319
840
35. 76
36.02
558

874. 3

622.4

204. 6

92.5

159.4

36. 89

36. 40

36. 62

Data are for end of period.
* Averages of daily figures. Annual data are for December.
» Member bank reserves series reflects actual reserve requirement percentages
with
no adjustment to eliminate the effect of changes in Regulations D and M.
4
During 1974, total loans and investments were increased $0.6 billion due to

28

1977

481

41
32
13
12
54
8
12
13
14
31
55
60
101
112
114
83
54
32

a bank
merger and were reduced $1.5 billion due to liquidation of a large bank6
Loan ^classifications reduced these loans by $1.2 billion as of March 31,1976• Loan reclassiflcations reduced these loans by $0.3 billion in December 1977Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE
BUSINESS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Sources

Uses
External

Period

Total

Internal1

1973..
1974
1975._
1976

104.3
127. 1
152.9
180.7
180.7
148.4
213. 5

80.8
83.8
75.7
107.8
125.8

1976: I__.
II
III
IV

219. 8
220. 4
204.3
209. 5

1977: I
II
III*..-..——

268.6
240.4
240.7

1970,.
1971.

_

1972.;

Credit5 market J unds
Total

TYitfll

Longterm 2

Short-3
term

Total

Other

Dis.
crepancy
in
(sources
finanless
cial
uses)
assets

Purchase
of
physical
assets 4

Increase

45. 5
58.5
72.2
96.9
105.0
40.6
87.7

40. 7
44 5
57. 7
72. 7
81.8
36.6
58.3

32. 1
40. 6
40. 7
37. 0
39. 1
49.3
48.6

8. 6
3.9
17. 0
35. 7
42.7
-12.7
9.7

48
14 1
14 5
242
23.2
41
29.4

95.9
1146
136.5
162.6

163. 5
132.3
197.2

80.3
86. 0
100.3
123.3
134 7
98.6
140.3

15. 6
28.6
36.2
39.3
28.9
33.7
56. 9

12.5
16. 5
18.1
17. 1
16.2
16.3

125.4
125.0
130.5
122.3

944

95.5
73.8
87.2

52. 1
60.2
51.7
69.4

50. 1
46.8
51. 0
46.6

2. 1
13.4
.7
22.8

42. 3
35.3
22. 1
17.8

203.2
202. 5
192.6
190.5

1343
143. 1
150.4
133. 4

68.9
59.4
42. 1
57. 1

16. 6
17.9
11.7
19. 0

125.7
1348
145.3

143.0
105.6
95.4

86. 6
87.7
65.5

42.4
55.8
49.3

443
31. 8
16. 2

56.3
17.9
29.9

257.4
233. 6
232.0

153.7
169.5
173.7

103.7
64 1
58.3

11.3
6. 8

58.9

6&6

* Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption
adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits.
3 Stocks, bonds, and mortgages.
* Bank loans, commercial paper, finance company loans, bankers' acceptances,
and Government loans.

8.4

8.7

* Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System.

CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS
[Billions of dollars]
Current liab ilities

Ciirrent ass*5tS

End of
period

Cash
on
Total hand
and
in
banks 1

Notes
U.S. ReceivOther
ables
and
GovcurInfrom
acernrent
venU.S.
ment
counts
tories
asGovsecurisets4
ern- 8 receivable
ties2 ment

Total

193. 3
200. 4
215.2
246.7
288. 0
285.8
315. 4

35.0
43.8
48. 1
54 4
56.6
60.0
69.8

3049
326.0
352. 2
401. 0
450.6
457. 5
499.9

Advances
and Notes
and
prepayacments, counts
U.S.
payGovable
ernment 3

Federal
income
tax
liabilities

Other
current
liabili-5
ties

40
43

5.2
6.4
7.0

2047
215. 6
230.4
261. 6
287.5
281.6
295. 9

10.0
13. 1
15. 1
18. 1
23. 2
20. 7
26.8

83.6
92. 4
102.6
117.0
134.8
148. 8
170. 2

187. 4
203.6
221.3
242. 3
261. 5
274 1
316.9

Net
working
capital

492.3
529.6
573.5
643.3
712. 2
731.6
816.8

50.2
53. 3
57. 5
61.6
62. 7
68. 1
77.0

11. 0
11.7
19.4
26. 4

1975 : III. _ 716. 5
IV___ 731. 6

65. 6
68. 1

14.3
19. 4

3. 6

3.3

2947 279. 6
294 6 285. 8

59. 0
60. 0

4447
457. 5

6.2
6.4

273.4
281.6

19. 4
20.7

145.6
148.8

271.8
274 1

1976: 1-- 753.5
II___ 775. 4
III__ 791.8
IV__. 816.8

68.4
70.8
71. 1
77. 0

21. 7
23.3
23.9
26.4

3.6
3.7
43
43

307. 3
318. 1
3242
323.9

288.8
295. 6
302. 1
315.4

63. 6
63. 9
66.3
69.8

465. 9
475. 9
484 1
499. 9

6.4
6.8
7.0
7.0

280. 5
287.0
2847
295. 9

23. 9
22. 0
24 9
26. 8

155. 0
160. 1
167.5
170.2

287.6
299.4
307. 7
316. 9

1977:I____ 845.3
II___ 874 7
III__ 909.8

75.0
77. 9
79. 1

27.3
24 1
24 1

46
48
5.3

342. 0 322. 1
356.6 332. 5
373. 8 343. 1

743

516.6
532.0
556. 3

6.8
5.7
6.2

302. 2
313.2
323.6

28.6
24 5
26. 9

179. 0
188.6
199.7

328. 7
342.7
353.5

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976

7.7

42

9.3

3.4
3.5
3.5

11.0

3. 5

3. 6

43

201. 9
217.6
240. 0
266. 1
289.7
294 6
323. 9

*2 Includes time certificates of deposit.
Includes Federal agency issues.
s Receivables from and payables to the U.S. Government do not include
aounts offset against each other on corporations' books or amounts arising from
- subcontracting which are not directly due from or to the U.S. Government.
Wherever possible, adjustments have been made to include U.S. Government
advances offset against inventories on corporations' books.




78.8

845

6.6
49

* Includes marketable investments (other than Government securities and
time certificates of deposit) as well as sundry current assets.
«Includes commercial paper outstanding, the portion of long-term debt due
in less than 1 year, and miscellaneous current liabilities not elsewhere classified.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.

29

INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS
Short-term interest rates were essentially unchanged in late January and February.
PErRCENT PER ANNUM

PER CENT PER ANNUM

10

—.

CORPORATE A^aa BONDS
(MOO DY'S)

A

,-v
\

-x./
;

V

p/M
/

\

kv-/"X

l/r$$

\'
V "l1 A-l
- —/TS
\

\

/

S

\

\ /• \

4

i

!

V

1
\ &

\A,
/<l\
<'l\ V \ L

(DISCOUNT
J

*

/>

*•*

*"

^"\/~sv
"*"••""** **

~

M

k/N

f.

f,A/XL

TREASURY I HLLS

\
V

RATE
FEDERAL
RESERVE "
BANK OF
NEW YORK

</

w

4

^
2 rl I ! | ! ! 1 t 1 1 ! 1 M ' M Ll 11 ' ' •i f i i i ! i i | i i _J_ 1 ! t I f l-t 1 J 1
1970
SOURCE: SEE TABLE BEL

1971

1972

1 1 ! I f I1 M ! 1

I f JJJ ' IJJi' '
1975

1974

"1973

| I 1 I f 1 1 I* I-! 1 f 1 1 If | 1 I ! J M
\ ! M f f I I 1 IK

1976

ow

2

1978

1977
COUNCIL QF

ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Percent per annum]
Period

1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1977: Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1978: Jan 7
Feb
Week ended:
1978: Jan 27
Feb 3
10
17
24
Mar 3

U.S. Gove rnment sectirity yields High-grade Corporate Prime com- Discount
municipal
mercial
rate
paper,
(N.Y.
3-month
bonds
Taxable
bonds
3-5
year
Treasury
(Standard4 (Moody's)
F.R.
4-6
issues 2
bonds 3 &
Bank)5
months
bills1
Poor's)

5.85
6.92
7. 81
7. 55
6.94
6,85
6.69
6.73
6.58
6.76
6.58
6. 67
6.90
6. 92
7. 23
7. 28
7.40
7.71
7.76

5.63
6.30
6.99
6.98
6. 78
7. 06
7. 15
7. 20
7. 14
7. 17
6.99
6.97
7. 00
6.94
7.08
7. 14
7.23
7.50
7.55

5.27
5. 18
6.09
6. 89
6.49
5.56
5.75
5.76
5.61
5. 64
5. 53
5.50
5.46
5.37
5.53
5.38
5.48
5. 60
5.51

8.47

4 87
4 87
5.35
5.49
5.41
5.84
6. 17
6.55
6.59
6. 64
6.79
6.80

6. 429
6. 440
6.476
6.452
6.460
6. 429

7.74
7.68
7.71
7. 81
7.83

7.55
7. 54
7. 55
7. 56
7.56

5.60
5.54
5.49
5.50
5.52

8.47
8.46
8.46
8.47
8.49

6.83
6. 81
6.79
6. 80
6.82

1
Kate on new issues within period.
2
Selected note and bond issues.
3

April 1953 to date, bonds due or callable 10 years and after.
* Weekly data are Wednesday figures.
• Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week.

30




7.21
7.44

4.071
7.041
7.886
5. 838
4.989
5.265
4662
4.613
4.540
4.942
5. 004
5. 146
5. 500
5.770
6. 188
6. 160
6.063
6. 448
6.457

a 57
8.83
8.43

a 02

8.04

a 10

8.04
8.05
7.95
7.94
7.98
7.92

ao4
a 19
a 41
8.08

469

a 15

9. 87
6. 33
5. 35
5.60

482

450

6.45
7.83
6.25
5. 50
5.46
5tf-5#
5>i-5}4
5J4-5K
5K-5K
5Ji-5tf
5K-5K
5K-5%
5%-5%
5%-6
6-6
6-6

6-6H
6/2-6K
6H-6H
6/2-6/2
6/2-6/2
6/2-6/2
61X2-6/2

Prime
rate
charged
by
banks 5

5.25

a 03

10.81
7.86
6.84
6.83

6K-6K

6J4-6J4
6^-6^
6#-6tf
6%-6K
6K~6%
6%-7
7 -7J£
7K-7K
7Ji-7J4
7%-7H
7%-8
8-8

Newhome
mortgage
yields
(FHLBB)*
7. 60
7.95
8. 92
9. 01
8.99
9.01
8.99
8.95
8.94
8.96
8.98
9.00
9.02
9. 04
9. 07
9. 07
9.09
9.15
9. 15

8-8
8-8
8-8
8-8
8-8

« Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflectin
fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repaymen
at end of 10 years. Bates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable wit|
prior rates.
* Not charted.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home
Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's
Corporation.

COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS
Stock prices continued to move erratically in February.
INDEX, DEC 31,1965=50
80

INDEX, DEC. 31,1965=50
180

70

70

60

~7

/""Vf

50

60

COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX
(NYSE)

50

40

40

30
1970

1971

1972

1973.

1976

1975

1974

1977

1978
PERCENT

PERCENT

EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS
(S&P)

~$

1977

1970

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION

Common si ;ock 5 yields
(perc ant)

Cominon stock pirices 1
Period

New York Stock Exch ange indexes (Dec. 31, 1L965=50) 2
Composite Industrial Transportation

1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1977: Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1978: Jan
Feb
Week ended:
1978: Jan 27
Feb 3
10
17
24

Utility

Finance

Standard
& Poor's
DowJones
composite Dividendindustrial3
index
ratio
average
(1941-43=
10) *

60.29
57. 42
43. 84
45. 73
54.46
53.69
54. 93
54.67
53.92
53.96
54.30
54.94
53. 51
52. 66
51.37
51.87
51.83
49.89
6
49. 41

65. 73
63. 08
48. 08
50.52
60.44
57.86
59. 65
59.56
58.47
58. 13
58. 44
58. 90
57.30
56.41
54.99
55.62
53. 55
53. 45
52. 80

50. 17
37.74
31. 89
31. 10
39. 57
41.09
40. 59
40.52
41.51
43. 25
43. 29
43. 52
41. 04
39.99
38. 33
39. 30
39.75
39. 15
38. 90

38.48
37. 69
29.79
31. 50
36. 97
40. 92
40. 86
40. 18
40. 24
41. 14
41.59
42. 44
41. 50
40. 93
40. 38
40. 33
40. 36
39. 06
39.02

78. 35
70. 12
49.67
47. 14
52. 94
55. 25
55. 65
54. 84
54. 30
5480
55.29
57.29
56.52
55. 33
53. 24
54. 04
53. 85
50. 91
50.60

950.
923.
759.
802.
974.
894.
941.
946.
929.
926.
916.
908.
872.
853.
823.
828.
818.
781.
763.

71
88
37
49
92
63
77
11
10
31
56
20
26
30
96
51
80
09
57

109. 20
107. 43
82.85
86. 16
102. 01
98.20
100. 96
100. 57
99. 05
98.76
99.29
100. 18
97.75
96.23
93. 74
94. 28
93. 82
90. 25
88.97

2.84
3.06
4.47
4.31
3. 77
4.62
4.21
4.37
4.47
4. 57
4. 60
4. 59
4. 72
4. 82
4.97
5.02
5. 11
5.32
5. 49

49.28
49.66
50. 04
49.31
48. 83

52.80
53.24
53.56
52. 64
52. 10

39. 14
39. 15
39. 64
38. 52
38.44

38. 49
38. 78
39. 26
39. 13
38. 78

50.32
50. 58
51. 11
50. 57
50. 11

768.
772.
776.
761.
751.

43
59
79
45
39

89.01
89. 65
90.21
88. 75
87.82

5.42
5.42
5.36
5.52
5.66

i Averages of daily closing prices.
* Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE.
s Includes 30 stocks.
* Includes 500 stocks.
« Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing
prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.
• Not charted.




1978

Earningsratio

5.50
7. 12
11.59
9. 15
8. 90
10.24
10. 37

11.09

NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange
NYSE).
Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation.
<j «•

FEDERAL FINANCE
FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBT
In the first 4 months of fiscal 1978 the budget deficit was $32.5 billion. A year earlier the deficit was $25.4 billion.
BMJONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

500

500
RKHPTS AND OUTLAYS

.400

400

OUTIAYS

V-'

300

300

RECEIPTS

200

200

50

50*

SURPLUS (+) OR DEFICIT (•)

-50

-50

.1

_L

-100

1970

1971

1972

I

I
1973

1974

1975

197$

1977

1978

-100
1979

FISCAL YEARS
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADYJSttS

SOURCES, DB-ARTMENT OF THE TREASURY A^OmCi OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

[Billions of dollars]
Period
Fiscal year or period:
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
Transition quarter
1977...
1978 (estimates) 22
1979 (estimates)

Receipts

.

:

Cumulative total first 4 months:
Fiscal year 1977
Fiscal year 1978
i Excludes non-interest-bearing public debt securities held by IMF.
a Estimates from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Fear, 1979.

32




Outlays

Surplus or
deficit (-)

Federal debt ( end of period)
Total1

Held by
the public

187.8
193. 7
188.4
208.6
232.2
264.9
281.0
299.2
81.7
356.9
400.4
439.6

184. 5
196.6
211.4
232.0
247. 1
269.6
326. 1
365. 6
94. 7
401.9
462.2
500.2

-2.8
23.0
-23.4
-14. 8
-4. 7
-45. 1
-66.4
-13. 0
-45. 0
-61. 8
-60.6

3.2

367.1
382.6
409.5
437.3
468.4
486.2
544. 1
631.9
646.4
709. 1
785.6
873. 7

279.5
284.9
304,3
323.8
343.0
346. 1
396.9
480.3
498.3
551.8
617.8
690. 8

106. 1
117.7

131. 6
150.2

-25.4
-32.5

664.9
731.8

518.9
57&5

NOTE,—See Note, p. 33.
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND
OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
In the first 4 months of fiscal 1978 budget receipts were $11.6 billion higher than a year earlier and expenditures
were $18.6 billion higher.
BHUONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS'OF DOLLARS

400

400
OUTLAYS

300

300
NONDffENSE

+

\S*

200

200

100

100

1970

_t

_L

I
y

1971

19?2

1973 "

1974

I
1975

.1976-

1977

1978

1979

>»

FISCAL YEARS
SOURCES, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVJSStS

[Billions of dollars]
()utlays

Rece ipts
Nationa I defense
Period
Total

Fiscal year or period:
1969
.
187.8
1970
193.7
1971
188.4
1972
208.6
232.2
1973
1974
__ 264. 9
1975
281. 0
1976
.
.
299.2
Transition quarter.
81.7
1977. _
_
356.9
1978 (estimates) 1*__
400.4
1979 (estimates)
439. 6
Cumulative total first 4
months :
Fiscal year 1977. _ _
Fiscal year 1978__ __
1

106. 1
117. 7

Indi- Corpovidual ration Other
income income
taxes
taxes

Total

Department of
Defense,
military

87.2
90.4
86.2
94. 7
103.2
119. 0
122. 4
130.8
38.7
156.7
178. 8
190. 1

36.7
32. 8
26. 8
32.2
36.2
38.6
40. 6
41. 4
8. 5
54. 9
58.9
62. 5

63.9
70.5
75. 4
81. 7
92. 8
107. 4
118.0
127. 0
34.5
145. 2
162. 6
187. 0

1845
19a 6
211.4
232. 0
247. 1
269.6
326. 1
365. 6
94. 7
401. 9
462.2
500. 2

79.4
7R6
75.8
76. 6
74. 5
77.8
85. 6
89. 4
22.3
97.5
107. 6
117. 8

21.9
95.6
105. 3
115. 2

54.4
60. 6

11. 1
13. 6

40.7
43. 5

131.6
150.2

29.7
33.5

31.3
33.0

Estimates from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1979.
NoTE.—Earned income credit payments in excess of an individual's tax liability
are classified as income tax refunds beginning 1976 and as outlays prior to 1976.




Total

77.9
77.2
74.5
75.2
73. 3
77.6
85.0

sao

Interna- Health
and
Intional income
terest Other
affairs security

7.7

49.0
56. 1
70. 1
81.4
91. 8
106. 5
136. 3
160.0
41. 4
175.8
191.9
209.7

15.8
18.3
19.6
20. 6
22. 8
28. 1
31. 0
34.6
7.2
38. 1
43. 8
49. 0

35.7
39.3
41.8
4a 8
5&9
51. 7
66.5
76.0
21.5
85.7
112. 1
116.0

1.7
1.4

57. 5
61. 3

13.5
14.5

29.2
39.5

4.6
4,3
4. 1
4. 7
4. 0
5. 6
6.9
5.6
2.2
4. 8

a7

Source: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget

33

FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS
According to revised estimates for calendar 1977, Federal receipts rose $41.3 billion and expenditures $37.2 billion,
yielding a deficit of $49.9 billion, $4.1 less billion than in 1976.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
440

400

I

160

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

160

40 SURPLUS

40

nI
liii• •«!"""""
-40

_»H

11iI1
III&iI^ IIi
I
i

1

DEFICIT

-80

-40

-80

i

-120

-120
1969

1970

1972

1971

1973

1974

:

197 5

19 77

-1976

CALENDAR YEARS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
F<jderal G<Dvernmeiit expen ditures

Federal (*overnm ent receipts

Period

Surplus
or
deficit

GrantsSubsidies Less:
in-aid
less
PurWage
Indirect ContriPersonal Corpocurrent accruals national
Transto
State
Net
chases
rate business butions
tax
and
surplus
of
less
fer
payinterest
Total
of
goods
and
for
Total nontax profits tax and
income
paid Govern- disnontax social intax
and ments local
and
receipts accruals
governservices
ment en- burse- product
accruals surance
ments
terprises ments accounts

Fiscal year:
271.8
1974
283.6
1975
314. 1
1976
364.0
1977*
Calendar
year:
288. 6
1974
286.9
1975
1976. - — 332.3
373.6
1977 »
318.4
1976:1
!!___ 329. 1
III_. 337. 1
IV_._ 344.5
364.9
1977: I
II... 371.2
III.. 373.2
IV *.

(-),

122. 6
127. 3
137. 2
165.5

43.7
42. 1
52.2
57.4

21.4
22. 1
24.2
24.6

84.2
92. 1
100. 5
116. 5

278.8
328. 7
372.3
411.8

104. 6
117. 9
126.5
140.7

104.7
134.2
156. 8
169.7

41. 6
48.4
57. 5
66.0

19.8
21.9
25.4
29. 3

8.0
5.7

-0.2

6. 1
6. 1

-.4
.0
.0

-7.0
—45.0
— 58. 2
-47.8

131.1
125. 6
147.3
170.7

45.9
43. 1
55.9
59.2
54.4
57.0
56. 9
55. 1
55.4
59.9
59.5

21.7
24.0
23.4

89.9
94.2
105.7
118.9
103.2
105. 0
106.2
108.4
115.4
118. 1
119. 7
122.4

299. 3
357.1
386.3
423.5
378. 7
375. 3
390. 6
400.4
403.7
411. 5
432. 1
446. 7

111.1
123.3
130. 1
145.5
127. 6
128. 5
130.2
134.2
136. 3
143. 6
148. 1
153. 8

117.6
149. 1
162.0
173. 1
160.2
157.8
163. 9
166. 3
170.7
169.3
174.8
177.6

43.9
54. 6
61.0
67.6
58.5
56.8
63. 1
65. 5
62. 0
63.6
72.7
72.2

20.9
23.3
27.2
29. 6
26.2
26.7
27.3
28.5
28. 6
29. 1
29.4
31.2

5.3
6.7
5.9
7.8
6.2

-.5
.0
.0
.0
.0

-10.7
— 70.2
— 54. 0
-49.9
-60.3
-46.2
-53.5
-55. 9
-38.8
-40.3
-58. 9

i3ao

143.9
150.3
157.1
170.0
168. 6
168.6
175.5

248

22. 7
23.2
23.7
23. 8
24.2
24. 6
25.4
25.2

5. 5
6. 1
6.0
6.1

5. 9

7.2

11.9

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget.

34




.0
.0

.0
.0
.0
.0
.0

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES- MAJOR
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
[1967=100]
In dustria prodiH3tion (sejisonally ad juste d)
Period

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977"
1977 : May__.
June
July___
Aug.—
Sept___
Oct...,
Nov "...
Dec"_.
1978: Jan*__

France

Germany

Italy

155. 8
167. 2
193. 3
187.3
167.5
190.3

128
135
145
148
137
149

133. 6
138.7
147.7
145. 1
137. 1
149. 1

196. 7
199.4
195.4
197. 7
198. 6
197. 9
203.5
202.9

150
156
151
151
154
149
155
150

151
152
151
152
153
152
153
156

117.5
122.7
134. 6
140. 6
127.6
143. 5
144.7
144.4
136. 1
135.9
132. 8
140.9
136.0
138.0

United
States

Canada

Japan

109. 6
119.7
129.8
129.3
117. 8
129. 8
137.0
137.0
137.8
138.7
138. 1
138.5
138.9
139. 3
139. 6
138.6

121.5
130. 0
141. 7
145. 8
139.0
145.4
151.3
151.2
152. 2
150. 7
151.4
151. 2
151. 6
152.4
152. 6

Con sumer ]Drices (u nad justed)

United United CanGerKing- States1 ada Japan France many
dom

110.8
113.2
122. 5
120. 3
114. 4
116. 0
118.8
114. 2
117.3
117. 4
117.5
115. 6
116.5
116.5

121.3
125. 3
133. 1
147. 7
161.2
170.5
181.5
180. 6
181. 8
182. 6
183. 3
184. 0
184. 5
185.4
186. 1
187.2

126.5
132.3
147.9
184. 0
205. 8
224. 9
243.0
244. 9
243. 6
243. 0
243. 0
247.3
248.6
245.7
245. 1

115.6
121.2
130. 3
144. 5
160. 1
172. 1
185.9
184.0
185. 3
187. 1
187. 9
188.9
190.8
192. 0
193. 3
194. 0

112. 7
119. 0
127. 2
136. 1
144.2
150.7
156. 6
156. 9
157.6
157.4
157. 3
157. 1
157. 3
157. 5
157.9
159. 0

123.5
131.1
140. 7
160. 0
178.9
196. 1
213.9
212.0
213. 6
215. 5
216. 7
218.6
220.3
221. 1
221. 7

Italy

United
Kingdom

114. 4
121. 0
134. 1
159. 7
186. 8
218. 1
257. 6
252.6
254.3 •
255. 8
258.2
263. 9
266.7
270.7
272.0
274.6

128.5
137. 6
150. 3
174.4
216. 5
252.4
292.4
291.9
294. 9
295.3
296. 7
298.3
299.6
301.0
302. 6
304. 4

Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, Bureau
of International Economic Policy and Research, Office of International Economic
Eesearch, in International Economic Indicators.

i Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers.

U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Merch andise e xports

Mercllandise imports
General im ports

3 Domestic3 exports

Period

Total
domestic and
foreign Total * 2
exports

Food, Crude
Food, Crude
bever- mate- Manubever- mate- Manufac2
facrials
ages,
rials tured Total
ages,
tured
and to- and
and
toand
goods
bacco fuels goods
bacco fuels

F. a.s. valu B 5

Monthly
average :
1973
1974
1974
1975
1976
1977
1976: Dec
1977: Jan
Feb___.
Mar___
Apr
May
June
July___
Aug
Sept___
Oct
Nov__.
Dec

Total
(c.i.f.
value) 4

Men^handise
balance
ExExports
(f.a.s.) ports
less
(f.a.s.)
less
imimports
(cus- /eports
_ _\
toms (f.a.s.)
value)

trade

Exports
(f.a.s.)
less
imports
(e.i.f.)

Custom s value

5,902
8, 159

5,811
8,045

1, 078
1,269

895
1,317

3,728
5,294

5,790
8,416

8, 159
8,928
9,567
10, 009
10, 397
9, 599
9,808
10, 072
9,970
10, 395
10, 112
10, 150
9,563
10, 916
9,190
9,304
11, 030

8,045
8,803
9,427
9,825

1,269
1,399
1,436
1,329
1,379
1,250
1,265
1,451
1,350
1,376
1,315
1,366
1,305
1,430
1,040
1,256
1,577

1,317
1,266
1,341
1,528
1,475
1,409
1,574
1,482
1,684
1,789
1,575
1,607
1,247
1,477
1,451
1,475
1,495

5,294
5,913
6,437
6,704
7,324
6,459
6,483
6,745
6,479
6,794
6,700
6, 695
6,531
7,473
6,258
6, 369
7, 512

8,354
8,010
10, 057
12, 235
11, 020
11, 269
11, 674
12, 459
12, 593
11, 616
12, 932
12, 476
12, 232
12, 631
12, 288
11, 386
13, 059

1
Total excludes Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies
and equipment under the Military Assistance Program.
3
Total
includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.
8
Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.
4
C.i.f. (cost, insurance, and freight) import value at first port of entry in the
United States. Data for 1973 are estimates.




3

770 1, 120
892 2, 653
F.a.s. ^value 5
892 2, 672
827 2,716
991 3,456
1,179 4, 397
1,142 3,808
1, 150 3,946
1,261 4,111
1,291 4,964
1,468 4,572
1,354 3,974
1, 170 4,829
1,107 4,459
1,071 4,231
1,106 4, 674
980 4,471
897 4,472
1,347 4,175

3,750
4,684

6,131
9,000

4, 602
4,257
5,398
6,434
5,832
5,861
5,920
6,069
6,244
6,313
6,629
6,631
6,724
6, 807
6, 650
6,077
7,474

9,000
8,616
10, 797
13, 058
11, 789
12, 059
12, 463
13, 283
13, 419
12, 404
13, 810
13, 330
13, 051
13, 484
13, 121
12, 127
13, 933

112
-257

-195

-229
-841

-257 -195
-&J1
852
918
312
-583 -490 -1,230
-2, 312 -2, 226 — 3, 050
— 720 -623 — 1,392
-1,758 -1,670 -2, 460
-1,956 -1,866 -2, 655
—2, 484 -2, 387 — 3,212
-2, 707 -2, 623 -3,449
-1,326 -1,221 —2, 009
-2, 934 -2, 820 -3, 698
-2, 408-2, 326 -3, 180
-2, 721 -2, 670 -3, 488
-1, 778 -1,715 —2, 569
-3, 182 -3,098 — 3, 931
-2, 163 -2, 082 —2, 823
-2, 121 -2, 030 —2, 903

* F.a.s. (free alongside ship) value basis: at U.S. port of exportation for exports
and at foreign port of exportation for imports.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

35

U.S. INTERNATIONAL

TRANSACTIONS

The merchandise trade balance deficit increased further in the fourth quarter. For the year 1977 the deficit was $31.4
billion compared with $9.3 billion in 1976.
BHUONS OF DOLLARS
10

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

to

BALANCE ON GOODS
AND SERVICES

1969

1970

1977

1973

1971

SOURCE. 'DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVJSEtS

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted]
M srchandise 1 2

Period

Exports

Imports

Invcistment inicome

"NTck-f

balance

43, 319 -45,579 -2,260
49, 381 -55,797 -6,416
71, 410 -70,499
911
98, 306 -103,673 -5,367
107, 088 -98,043
9,045
114, 694 -124,014 -9,320
120, 402 -151,803 -31,401

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977 »

Receipts

Payments

9,512 -4, 893
10, 161 -5,975
13, 540 -8,744
19, 763 -11, 019
17, 330 -11,376
21, 369 -11,561

1976: !-__
II_III.
IV- _

27, 000
28, 380
29, 603
29, 711

-28,343
-29, 955
-32,411
-33,305

-1,343
-1,575
— 2, 808
-3,594

5,298
5,167
5,483
5,421

!___
II__
III*.

29, 457
30, 589
30, 867
29, 489

-36, 612
-38,397
-38,429
-38,365

-7, 155
-7,808
-7,562
-8,876

6,133 -2, 881
6,660 — 3, 156
6,430 -3,215

1977:

IV* _

1
2 Excludes military grants.
Adjusted from Census data
8

-2, 861
-2, 887
-2, 816
-2, 997

for differences in timing and coverages
Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct
investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and
included in other services, net.

36



Net

4,619
4,186
4,796
8,744
5,954
9,808

Net
military
transactions

Nettravel
and
transportation
receipts

-2, 893 -2, 315
-3, 621 -3,028
-2, 287 -3, 086
-2, 083 -3, 105
-876 -2, 552
366 -2, 145

Other
services,
net 3

Balance
on
goods
and
serv-l
ices

Remittances,
pensions,
unilateral
transfers 1

Balance
on
current
account

-340 -3, 701 -4, 041
2,509
2,789 -6,088 -3, 854 -9, 942
3, 185
3,520 -3,887
-367
3,970
2,160 -7, 188 -5,028
4,594 16, 164 -4, 612 11, 552
4,888
3,596 -5,023 -1,427
1,552
1,505
875
-337

-1,029
523
-1, 015
490
-1,936 -1,061
- 1, 045 -1,382

2,437
2,280
2,667
2,424

-65
— 39
235
235

-669
-337
-458
-681

1, 192
1, 176
1,239
1,279

3,252
3,504
3,215

516
311
577

-953
-785
-727

1,293 -2, 995 -1, 163 -4, 158
1,338 -3,389 -1,215 -4, 604
1,494 -2, 950 -1,352 -4, 302

NOTE.—Merchandise trade data are as revised in January Economic Indicators.
Other data to be revised later.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
Foreign assets in the United States grew slightly less in the third quarter of 1977 rfian in the second, but the increase
in official assets was greater. The increase in U.S. assets abroad in the third quarter was smaller than in the second.
BILLIONS OF DOUARS.
130

BllUQNS OF DOLLARS
30
«ASOKAILYAWUSTB>

CHANGE IN
FOREIGN ASSETS

r

IN THE U.S., NET
A

10

\

•10

-10

-20

-30

-30
1977

1969
SOUXC& DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

U. S. assets abroad, ]aet
[tncre ase/capita 1 outflow (— )]

Fore ign assets in the U.S., net
2
[inci ease/capii ,al inflow (4-)]
Foreign[ official
assets

Period
Total

U.S.
Other
U.S.
official
U.S.
private2
reserve
Govern- assets
assets 1 2 ment
assets

Total
Total

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977 »

— 9, 299
2,348 -1,884 -9, 763 22, 445
-9, 929
32 — 1,568 -8, 392 21, 127
-14,666
209 -2, 645-12,230 17, 753
-27, 029 -1,434
365 -25, 960 33, 612
-31,548
-607 -3, 463-27, 478 14, 336
-42, 959 -2, 530 -4, 213 -36, 216 34, 520
-232

1976:1

-10,751
-773
-723 -9,254
-944 -7, 257
-9, 779 -1,578
-8, 409 -407 -1,405 -6, 597
-14, 022
228 — 1, 142 -13,108

II
III
IV

1977:1

331

II
-10,283
III »__ -3, 396
IV ».

6,856
7,385
8,201
12, 079

3,847
4,051
3,070
6,977

388
-909
1,627 2, 510
6
-825 -9,464 13, 781
151 -1, 175 —2, 372 12, 923
—1

5,719
7,908
8,243

i Consists of gold, special drawing rights (BDR), convertible corrtneies, and
tee U.S. reserve position in the IMF.
* Quarterly data are not seasonally a*l|iisted«




26, 895
10, 705
6,299
10, 981
6,960
17, 945

Assets of Other
foreign foreign
official
assets
reserve
agencies

27, 405 —4, 450
10, 322 10, 422
5, 145 11, 454
10, 257 22, 631
5, 259
7,376
13, 007 16, 575
35, 359
2,323
3, 308
1,251
6, 125

3,
3,
5,
5,

009
333
131
102

5,007 -3, 209
7,452
5,873
7,924
4,680
14, 976

Statistical
discre pancy
Allocations
Of
of
Total
which:
special (sum of Seasonal
drawing
the
adjustrights
items
ment
(SDR) with sign discrepreversed) ancy

U.S.
official
reserve
assets,
net 1
(unadjusted,
end of
period)

717 -9, 822
710 -1,966
-2, 720
-1, 555
5,660
9,866
3,372
717
1, 905
129
1,268 -2, 622
3,325
1,780

12, 167
13, 151
14, 378
15, 883
16, 226
18, 747
19, 317
16, 941
18, 477
18, 945
18, 747

1,317
524 19, 120
1, 106
— 215 19, 156
-5, 225 -2, 506 18, 988
19, 317

Sources: department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury.

37

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GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

POSTAGE AND FEES PAID
U.S, GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
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Contents
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING

pagc

Gross National Product
Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars
Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product
Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures
Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits
National Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Sources of Personal Income
Disposition of Personal Income
Farm Income.
Corporate Profits
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment

1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

'.

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
Status of the Labor Force
Selected Unemployment Rates
Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Productivity and Related Data, Private Business Economy

11
12
13
14
15
15
16

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization.
Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures
New Construction
New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates
Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade
Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and New Orders

17
18
19
19
20
21

PRICES
Wholesale Prices
Consume Prices
Changes in Wholesale Prices
Changes in Consumer Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers

22
23
24
24
25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
Money Stock
Private Liquid Asset Holdings—Nonfinancial Investors
Consumer Instalment Credit
Bank Loans, Investments, and Reserves
Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business
Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations
Interest Rates and Bond Yields
Common Stock Prices and Yields

26
27
27
28
29
29
30
31

FEDERAL FINANCE
Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays and Debt
Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function
Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis

32
33
34

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries.
U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports
U.S. International Transactions

35
35
36

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