Full text of Economic Indicators : February 1976
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94th Congress, 2d Session Economic Indicators February 1976 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1976 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec 500 of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) HUBERT H. HUMPHREY, Minnesota, Chairman WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas, Vice Chairman SENATE JOHN SPARKMAN (Alabama) WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) ABRAHAM RIBICOFF (Connecticut) LLOYD M. BENTSEN, JR. (Texas) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) JACOB K. JAVITS (New York) CHARLES H. PERCY (Illinois) ROBERT TAFT, JR. (Ohio) PAUL J. FANNIN (Arizona) HOUSE or REPRESENTATIVES RICHARD BOLLING (Missouri) HENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin) WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD (Pennsylvania) LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana) GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana) CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio) GARRY BROWN (Michigan) MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts) JOHN H, ROUSSELOT (California) JOHN R. STARK, Executive Director LOUGHUN F. McHuGH, Senior Economist RICHARD F. KAOTMAN, General Counsel COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS ALAN GREENSPAN, Chairman PAUL W. MAcAVOY BURTON G. MALKTEL Economic Indicators prepared under supervision of FRANCES M. JAMES [PUBLIC LAW 120—SlsT Congress; CHAPTER 237—1st SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Tissolvcd by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at 85 cents a single copy or by subscription at $10.10 per year ($2.55 additional for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON D.C. 20402 Subscribers who wish to receive it at an earlier date after release may take advantage of provisions for airmail subscriptions. The domestic airmail subscription price is $3.60 additional per year. TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to revised estimates for the fourth quarter, gross national product increased $44.0 billion or at a 12.0 percent annual rate, reflecting an inflation rate of 6.8 percent and an increase of 4.9 percent in real GNP. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 1,800 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 1,800 1,600 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 1969 1968 1970 1971 1973 1972 1975 1974 SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1976 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975. 1974: !_._ II— IIIIV. _ 1975: I _ - _ II— IIIIV.. Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures 688. 1 430.2 753.0 464.8 796.3 490.4 868.5 535.9 935. 5 579.7 982.4 618.8 1, 063. 4 668. 2 1, 171. 1 733. 0 1, 306. 3 808. 5 1, 406. 9 885.9 1, 498. 8 963.8 1, 370. 9 849. 5 1, 391. 0 877.8 1, 424. 4 907.7 1, 441. 3 908.4 1, 433. 6 926.4 1, 460. 6 950. 3 1, 528. 5 977.4 1, 572. 5 1, 001. 0 Gross private domestic investment 112. 0 124. 5 120.8 131.5 146.2 140. 8 160.0 188.3 220. 5 212.2 182. 6 218.4 212.7 207. 6 210. 3 168. 7 161.4 194.9 205.4 Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total 7. 6 5. 1 4.9 2. 3 1.8 3.9 1. 6 -3. 3 7.4 7. 7 21.2 15.6 4. 0 3.2 8.2 17.3 24.2 22. 1 21.2 39.5 42. 8 45. 6 49.9 54. 7 62.5 65.6 72. 7 101. 5 144.2 147.7 133. 1 141. 6 148. 6 153. 6 148. 2 140. 7 148. 5 153.5 32. 0 37. 7 40. 6 47.7 52. 9 58. 5 64. 0 75. 9 94.2 136. 5 126.5 117. 5 137. 6 145. 5 145. 3 130.9 116.4 126.4 132.2 138.4 158. 7 180.2 198. 7 207.9 218.9 233. 7 253. 1 269. 9 301. 1 331.2 287. 5 296. 5 305.9 314.4 321.2 324. 7 334. 1 344.8 i This category corresponds closely with budget outlays for national defense, shown on p. 36. NOTE.—Revised series. See Survey ojCurrent Business, January 1976. Go^^eminent purchases of goods and services Expori & and imj>orts of gooc Is and serdees Total 67.3 78.8 90.9 98.0 97.5 95.6 96.2 102. 1 102. 0 111.7 123.2 106. 1 108.9 113.6 118.2 119.4 119.2 124.2 129. 9 National defense1 49.4 60. 3 71.5 76.9 76. 3 73.5 70. 2 73. 5 73.4 77.4 84.0 74. 8 75. 8 78.4 80. 5 81.4 82. 1 84.9 87.4 Nondefense 17.8 18. 5 19. 5 21.2 21.2 22. 1 26.0 28. 6 28. 6 34. 3 39. 2 31.4 33. 0 35. 1 37. 7 38.0 37. 1 39.3 42.5 State and local 71.1 79.8 89.3 100.7 110.4 123.2 137. 5 151.0 168. 0 189.4 208.0 181.4 187.6 192. 3 196.3 201.9 205. 5 209.9 214.8 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Final sales 678.6 738.7 786.2 860.8 926.2 978.6 1, 057. 1 1, 161. 7 1, 288. 8 1, 397. 2 1, 513. 4 1, 356. 1 1, 381. 7 1, 420. 0 1, 430. 9 1, 458. 4 1? 490. 2 1, 530. 6 1, 574. 4 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS [BilHons of 1972 doEars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Governrnent purenases of Exports of goods Gross t>rivate domestic goods and sen.dees aiid service8 iiavestmenlb Personal conGross Change national sumpNonState Resi- in busition product Net resiand Exports Imports Total Federal expend- dential dential ness in- exports local ventofixed itures fixed ries Period gales 41.0 47.3 50.7 58.9 63. 5 65.7 68.5 75.9 80.4 81. 0 67.2 209.6 229. 3 248.3 259. 2 256.7 250.2 249.4 253.1 252. 5 254.3 257.6 100.5 112.5 125.3 128.3 121. 8 110.7 103.9 102.1 96. 1 95.0 94.3 109. 1 116.8 123. 1 130.9 134.9 139. 5 145.5 151.0 156.3 159.3 163.3 914.6 964.3 995.7 1, 043. 1 1, 068. 2 1, 071. 0 1, 100. 9 1, 161. 7 1, 217. 3 1, 203. 0 1, 196. 6 7.7 16.6 23.3 49.1 51.6 54.2 58.5 62.2 67.1 67.9 72.7 87.6 97.6 90.5 49. 1 47. 1 44. 1 38.5 12.4 18.7 15.3 15. 1 17.4 98. 1 99.5 96.9 95. 7 79. 5 84.2 81.9 78. 3 254.0 255. 0 254. 7 253.6 94.7 94.7 95.7 947 159.3 160.2 159.0 15R9 1, 216. 3 1, 210. 4 1, 206. 0 1, 179. 3 33.6 34.0 -19.0 -20.7 40.7 -1.6 21.5 24.9 23. 5 23.6 90.7 86.8 90. 8 93.9 69. 2 62.0 67.3 70.3 255.1 254.9 258.7 261.6 93.7 92.4 94.9 96.1 161.4 162.5 163.8 165.5 1, 177. 6 1, 188. 7 1, 202. 4 1, 217. 5 558. 1 586. 1 603. 2 633.4 655.4 668.9 691.9 733.0 766.3 759.8 766.9 95.6 106.1 103.5 108.0 114.3 110.0 108.0 116.8 131.3 127.5 112.2 43. 2 1974:1... 1, 228. 7 II—. 1, 217. 2 III.. 1, 210. 2 IV.. 1, 186. 8 760.0 763. 2 767.2 748. 9 134.5 129.9 125.0 120.8 1975: I.. _ 1, 158. 6 II— 1, 168. 1 III.. 1, 201. 5 IV— 1, 215. 9 752. 3 764. 1 771.6 779.4 115.2 110.8 110.6 112.3 1965...... 925.9 981.0 1966_ 1967 1, 007. 7 1, 051. 8 1968 1969 1, 078. 8 1, 075. 3 1970 1, 107. 5 1971 1972.. 1, 171. 1 1, 233. 4 1973 1974 1, 210. 7 1975 1, 186. 0 "EM-nftl j? in tii 3as 37.2 42.8 43. 2 40.4 52.2 62.0 60. 1 44. 7 36.6 3ao 11.3 16. 7 12.0 8.7 10,6 4. 3 6.6 9.4 16. 0 -10.5 6.8 4.2 7.6 -.8 8.2 4.3 3.5 — 4. -L3 1.4 -.6 -3.3 7.2 IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1972=100] Gross national product Period Persona][ consumj>tion exp€ nditures Total Gross private dom estic invesi ;ment NonNonres- ResiDurable durable Services idential dential goods fixed goods fixed Expor ts and Governnlent purimports of goods chases <>f goods and s€xrviees and scjrvices State Exports Imports Federal and local 1965... 1966 1967 1968... 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974_ 1975 74.32 76. 76 _ 79. 02 82. 57 86. 72 91. 36 96. 02 . 100. 00 105. 92 116.20 12a37 77.1 79. 3 81.3 84.6 88. 5 92. 5 96.6 100.0 105. 5 116.6 125.7 85.6 85. 7 87.4 90.7 93. 1 95. 5 99.0 100.0 101,7 108.4 116.9 77.3 80. 1 81.9 85. 3 89.4 93.6 96.6 100.0 108. 0 124.0 133.6 74.3 76.5 78.8 82.0 86. 1 90.5 95.8 100.0 104.6 112.7 121.5 74.5 76.8 79.3 82.6 86.6 91.3 96.4 100.0 104.0 116.0 132.3 72.3 74.6 77.0 80.7 87.7 90. 6 94. 9 100. 0 110. 6 122. 1 133.3 80.5 82. 8 84. 0 85.3 87. 9 93. 1 96. 6 100.0 116. 0 147.8 163.2 78.0 79. 7 80.1 80. 9 83. 3 89. 1 93.5 100.0 117. 1 168.6 188.2 67.0 70.1 72.6 76.4 80.0 86.4 92.6 100.0 106. 1 117.6 130. 6 65.1 68.4 72.5 76.9 81.9 88. 3 94.5 100.0 107. 5 118.9 127.4 1974: I II 111. 58 114.28 117. 70 121. 45 111.8 115.0 118. 3 121.3 103.2 106.6 110.4 114.0 118.2 122.4 126.0 129.5 108.9 111.3 114.2 116.4 108.5 112.9 118.5 125.0 117.4 120. 7 124. 9 126.7 135. 6 142. 3 153.4 160.4 147.9 163.4 177. 7 185. 6 112. 1 114.9 118. 6 124 8 113.8 117.1 121.0 123.6 123. 1 124.4 126. 7 128.4 114, 3 116.3 117.4 119.4 131.0 131.9 135.2 136.4 119.0 120.2 122,2 124,4 129.6 131.8 132.6 135.3 131. 6 132. 3 132. 5 136. 1 163. 5 162.0 163. 6 163.5 189. 1 187.8 187.8 188.1 127. 3 128.9 130. 9 135.3 125. 1 126.4 128.2 129,8 Ill IV. 1975:1 II Ill IV. _ _ 123. 125. 127. 129. 74 04 21 32 NOTE.—Kevised series. See Survey of Current Business, January 1976, Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NATIONAL INCOME Because of increased employment and a lengthening of the workweek, compensation of employees showed the largest quarterly increase of 1975 in the last quarter. BILUONS OF DOLLARS *(RATIO SCALE) BILUONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 40CL 140 140 CORPORATE PROFITS WITH INVENTORY VALUATION AND "CAPITAL CONSUMPTION ADJUSTMENTS 120 120 A. 100 100 80 60 80 J I 1968 I 60 ' 1969 1971 1970 1972 1973 1975 1974 1976 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE. DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period National income Compensation of em.— ployees 1 Propr tetors' incom e with inventor y valuation anc . capital consulnption adjust ments Farm Nonfarm 44. 1 12.6 1065 566.0 396. 5 46. 7 439.3 13. 6 1966 _. 622.2 12. 1 48.9 1967 471.9 655.8 51, 4 12. 0 714.4 519.8 1968 > 571.4 52.3 13. 9 1969. _ 767.9 51.2 609.2 798.4 13.9 1970 53.4 14. 3 650.3 1971 ._- 858. 1 58. 1 18.0 1972 951.9 715. 1 32.4 59. 3 797.7 1973 I, 067. 3 59. 5 873.0 25.6 1974 1, 141. 1 921.4 24.6 58.7 1975" 1, 209. 7 33.7 59. 3 1, 122. 3 843. 9 1974: I 22. 3 59.5 863. 9 1, 129. 6 II 60.2 21. 9 886. 3 1, 151. 3 III 24. 6 59.0 898. 1 1, 161. 3 IV 58.6 21.0 897. 1 1, 155. 2 1975: I 58.5 905. 4 20. 1 1, 180. 8 II 58.7 29. 3 1, 232. 5 928. 2 III.... 58.9 28. 2 955. 1 IV, »Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 4.) NOTE.—Revised series. See Survey of Current Business, January 1976. T?/vn± «1 Corpor ate profits with inv<3ntory va uation and capital co nsumptioii adjustments income with capital consumption adjustment 17. 1 18.2 19.4 18.6 18. 1 18.6 20. 1 21. 5 21.3 21. 0 21. 1 21. 1 21. 0 20.9 20.9 20. 8 20. 5 20.9 22.0 Profits with inv<sntory valuat ion adjusibment and iwithout ca pital consum ption adjtistment Total Total 77. 1 82. 5 79. 3 85. 8 81.4 67.9 77. 2 92. 1 100.2 91. 3 102. 3 99.6 94.3 89. 2 82.0 78.9 96.6 113. 1 73.3 78.6 75. 6 82. 1 77.9 66.4 76. 9 89. 6 98. 6 93. 6 107.9 100. 3 96. 0 92. 0 86. 1 83.4 101. 6 119. 6 Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment 75.2 80.7 77.3 85. 6 83.4 71.5 82.0 96.2 117.0 132. 1 119. 1 128.3 129.6 146. 7 123.9 97. 1 108.2 129.5 -1.9 -2. 1 -1.7 -3.4 -5.5 -5. 1 -5.0 -6. 6 -18.4 -38. 5 -11.2 -28. 0 -33. 7 -54.7 -37.7 -13.7 -6.6 -9.9 -14.7 Capital consumption adjustment 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.7 3. 5 1.5 .3 2.5 1.6 -2.3 -5.7 -.7 -1.7 -2.7 -4.2 -4.5 -5.0 -6.5 -6.6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Net interest 18. 521. 9 24.3 26. 8 30. 8 37.5 42. 8 47.0 56. 3 70. 7 81. 6 64. 8 68. 7 72. 7 76. r 78. 7 79. 7 82. 2 85. 7 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $13.6 billion (annual rate) in January on the strength of a $10.5 billion increase in labor incomeAll other types of income except farm proprietors' income showed small increases. The rise in personal contributions for social insurance was increased by the higher base income effective January 1. BilLIONS OF DOLLARS WLIIONS OF DOLLARS 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS ^-- TRANSFER PAYMENTS 1968 1976 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Wage Propriet()rs' income3 Rental Other Total and income labor personal salary of income disburse- income12 Farm Nonfarm persons 4 ments l Period 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1975: Jan Feb Mar Apr May 1976: . 685.2 745.8 801.3 859. 1 942. 5 1, 054. 3 1, 154. 7 1, 245. 9 1, 202. 6 1, 203. 2 1, 205. 0 1, 209. 0 1, 217. 2 1, 245. 2 June July.... 1, 244. 0 1, 262. 4 Aug Sept.... 1, 278. 7 Oct.... 1, 287. 4 Nov.... 1, 295. 9 D e c _ _ _ _ 1, 300. 2 J a n * _ _ _ 1, 313. 8 469. 5 514. 6 546. 5 579.4 633. 8 701. 0 763. 6 801.6 782. 1 779. 1 781. 7 782. 7 787.4 792. 7 797.4 808. 8 815. 6 824. 1 831. 2 836.8 846. 6 25.1 28.2 32.0 36.2 42.0 47.5 54. 5 61.3 58.6 59. 0 59.4 59. 8 60. 3 60. 8 61. 4 62. 0 62.6 63. 2 63. 8 64. 4 65. 1 12. 0 13.9 13. 9 14.3 18. 0 32.4 25. 6 24.6 24.0 21. 0 17.9 18. 5 20. 1 21. 7 25.8 29. 3 32. 7 30. 5 28. 3 25. 8 25.3 51.4 52. 3 51. 2 53.4 58. 1 59. 3 59.5 58.7 58.8 58. 5 58.6 58.5 58.6 58. 6 58. 7 58. 7 58.8 58.9 58.8 58.9 59.3 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 3) in that it excludes employers contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements* 2 Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workmen's compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items. 8 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 18.6 18. 1 18.6 20. 1 21. 5 21. 3 21. 0 21. 1 20. 9 20.8 20.8 20.7 20. 5 20. 2 20. 5 21. 0 21. 3 21. 8 22. 0 22. 2 22. 5 4 6 Dividends 21.9 22.6 22. 9 23. 0 24. 6 27. 8 31. 1 32. 8 32. 1 32. 1 32. 1 32.4 32. 6 32. 9 33. 2 33.5 33.9 33.8 33.8 31. 7 33.4 Personal Transfer interest payincome ments 49.6 55. 9 64. 3 69. 3 74. 6 88.4 106. 5 120.5 115. 9 116. 0 116. 1 116. 6 117. 5 118.6 119. 7 121. 2 122. 9 125. 1 127. 9 129. 0 130. 7 59.9 66. 5 79. 9 94. 1 104. 1 118. 6 140.4 175. 0 159.0 165.4 167.2 168. 6 169. 3 189. 0 176.8 178. 1 181. 3 180.6 181.4 182. 9 184. 2 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance 22. 8 26.3 28.0 30.8 34.2 42. 2 47.4 49. 8 48. 9 48. 8 48. 9 48. 9 49. 1 49. 3 49. 5 50. 0 50.4 50. 7 51. 2 51.6 53. 2 Nonfarm personal income 5 667.5 725. 8 780. 7 838. 0 917. 3 1, 013. 5 1, 119. 1 1, 210. 2 1, 167. 6 1, 171. 3 1, 176. 2 1, 179. 7 1, 186. 2 1, 212. 5 1, 207. 2 1, 222. 1 1, 234. 8 1, 245. 6 1, 256. 3 1, 262. 9 1, 276. 9 With capital consumption adjustment. Personal income exclusive of net income of unincorporated farm enterprises farm wages, agricultural net interest, and net dividends paid by nonfarm coi porations. NOTE.—Revised series. See Survey of Current Business, January 1976. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable income rose 0.7 percent in 1975, with a 4.9 percent annual rate of increase from the first to the fourth quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 2,500 I 1968 I 1975 1969 COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Less : Personal Equals: DisposPertax able sonal and perincome nonsonal tax pay- income ments Period Less: Personal outlays1 Per caj>ita disposable income Equals : Personal saving Current dollars Bil lions of d ollars 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 19731974 1975 626. 6 685.2 745. 8 801. 3 859. 1 942. 5 1, 054. 3 1, 154. 7 1, 245. 9 82. 1 97. 1 115. 4 115. 3 116. 3 141. 2 151. 2 171. 2 169. 2 1, i 1974: I-___i 1, 115. 9 II— 1, 136. 6 III__ 1, 171. 6 I V _ _ 1, 194. 8 1975: I_— 1, 203. 6 II 1, 223. 8 III.. 1, 261. 7 IV._. 1, 294. 5 544. 5 588. 1 630.4 685. 9 742. 8 801. 3 903. 1 983. 6 076. 7 1972 dollars Per cap ita per- Percent Saying sonal c()nsump- change real as pertion exp<snditures inper cent of Popula1972 dollars capita disposable personal income disposable personal income 2,468 2,670 2, 860 3,020 3,227 3,510 3, 843 4, 181 4, 512 3, 035 3, 156 3,234 3, 265 3, 342 3, 510 3, 642 3, 586 3, 590 3.0 2. 8 1. 5 3. 0 2.6 3. 3 6.0 -2. 1 .7 7.5 6.5 5.6 7.4 7.7 6.2 8. 0 7. 5 8. 3 198, 712 200, 706 202, 677 204, 878 207, 053 208, 846 210,410 211, 894 213, 631 4,019 4, 147 4,279 4,273 4, 350 4, 454 4, 569 4,670 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, -5. 5 -5. 9 -. 7 -2. 9 -3. 5 18. 8 -6.2 3.5 8.5 6.9 6.5 8.2 7.2 9.9 7.9 7.9 211, 211, 212, 212, 212, 213, 213, 214, Current dollars tion (thou-2 sands) Dol Lars 503. 7 550. 1 595. 3 635.4 685. 5 751. 9 830.4 909. 5 987.8 40.9 38. 1 35. 1 50. 6 57. 3 49. 4 72. 7 74. 0 88.9 2, 740 2,930 3, 111 3, 348 3, 588 3, 837 4,292 4, 642 5, 040 3,371 3,464 3, 515 3,619 3, 714 3, 837 4, 068 3,981 4, 010 Seas onally ad; usted annLual rates 162. 1 168.4 175. 3 178.9 179. 6 142. 1 174. 6 180.5 872. 6 953. 8 901. 4 968. 2 931. 7 996. 3 932. 4 1, 015. 9 1, 024. 0 950.4 1, 081. 7 974. 2 1, 087. 1 1, 001. 3 1, 114. 0 1, 025. 4 81.2 66. 8 64. 6 83.6 73.6 107.5 85.9 88.6 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to2business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners. Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are for July 1; quarterly data are for middle of period, interpolated from monthly data. 1976 513 574 697 779 808 070 083 197 4,037 3,976 3, 969 3, 940 3,905 4, 077 4,012 4,047 596 605 617 523 533 581 607 636 NOTE.—Revised series. See Survey of Current Business, January 1976. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 362 699 123 585 962 362 897 339 FARM INCOME Although farm income including inventory change declined in the fourth quarter, the total for 1975 was about the same as for 1974. BILUQNS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 120 1120 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 100 100 80 80 40 40 NET FARM INCOME INCLUDING NET INVENTORY CHANGE 20 20 J •! 1969 j I j f 1974 1973 1972 1971 1970 COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Personal income re ceived by total i"arm pop\]ilation Encome re ceived fro m farming? Nett<) farm oper ators Realize$d gross Period From all sources 1968 1969 1970... 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975" 1975 23.7 26.4 26.8 28.0 33.5 47.7 44.0 44.8 From farm sources 11. 1 12.7 12.6 13.0 ias 2a7 23.1 2ai From nonfarm sources 12.7 13. 7 14.2 15. 0 17.2 19.0 20.9 21.7 ProducCash tion ex- Exclud- Includreceipts penses ing net ing net Total i - from inveninventory markettory change change 2 ings Billions <>f dollars 51.7 56.3 58. 6 60.6 70. 1 95.3 101. 1 44. 2 48.2 50.5 52.9 61.2 86.9 93. 5 39.7 42.4 44. 8 47.8 52.8 65.8 73.4 12. 0 13.9 13.8 12.8 17.3 29.5 27.7 Net income per farm including net inventor y change 3 Current dollars 1967 dollars 4 Dol lars 12. 1 14.0 13.8 14.2 18.2 33. 1 26.1 26.0 3,949 4,672 4,667 4,879 6,332 11, 639 9,211 9,260 3,797 4,286 4,094 4, 100 5, 106 8,434 5,721 5,230 Seasonwily adju sted annutil rales 1974: I II. Ill IV 105.8 97.6 99.2 101. 9 98.4 90. 1 91. 5 94. 1 72.6 73.2 73.8 74. 0 33.2 24.4 25.4 27. 9 34.3 22.8 22. 3 25. 0 12, 120 8,060 7,880 8,830 7,920 5,070 4,800 5, 190 1975: I II. III IV * 93.7 99.9 102.9 85. 5 91. 7 94.7 74.0 75.4 77.2 19.7 24.5 25.7 20.7 27. 0 28.7 27.6 7,370 9, 620 10, 220 9,830 4,240 5,500 5,710 5,430 * Cash receipts from marketings, Government payments, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 8 Inventory of crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year. Based on Census of Agriculture definition of a farm. The number of farms is held constant within a year. * Income in current dollars divided by the index of prices paid by farmers for family living items on a 1967 base. Source: Department of Agriculture. CORPORATE PROFITS Pretax profits declined 10 percent from 1974 to 1975 but profits with inventory valuation adjustment increased 15 percent. BEUONS OF DOLLARS BULIONS OF DOLLARS 40 40 1968 1969 1975 SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period 1965... 1966 1967. 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975" 1974: I__ II III IV 1975: I II.. III IV* 66-981°—76 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally Profit s (before tax) wit]i inventc >ry valusition adjustn lent 1 Dome*stic induistries N onfinanci ial Total 2 FinanWholeManu- sale Total cial 3 facTotal and turretail mg trade 62. 5 70. 1 7.5 73. 3 38. 3 7.9 75. 9 8.5 67.4 78.6 8.0 41. 6 72. 6 63.6 37.9 75. 6 9. 0 8.9 41.2 82. 1 78. 9 10. 4 68. 5 10. 1 74, 2 11. 3 62.9 77.9 36. 8 10. 1 62. 6 66.4 12. 6 27. 1 50. 1 9.4 ___ 72.4 58.2 32.4 76. 9 11.7 14. 1 84.7 15.4 69.3 13. 3 89.6 40.6 91.7 17.4 74.3 14.4 98. 6 43.8 82.5 17.3 65.3 37.4 93. 6 13.4 102. 1 16.2 46.2 107.9 85.9 17.2 85.9 68. 7 _._ 100. 3 40. 9 14.6 87.2 96.0 17. 1 70. 2 39. 8 15. 5 82. 0 92.0 18. 3 63. 7 37.0 11.7 75. 1 16. 5 58.6 31.9 86. 1 11,9 83.4 18.3 59.3 77.6 30.0 16. 3 80.2 95.7 15.5 21. 0 43. 5 __ 101. 6 113.4 14.9 25. 1 119. 6 98. 6 54.6 1 See p. 3 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 2 Includes rest of the world, not shown separately, s Includes industries not shown separately. 2 1976 adjusted annual rates] Pro fits after tax Profits before tax Tax liability Total Dividends 75.2 80.7 77.3 85. 6 83.4 71. 5 82.0 96.2 117. 0 132. 1 119. 1 128.3 129.6 146.7 123.9 97.1 108.2 129. 5 30.9 33. 7 32. 5 39.4 39.7 34. 5 37.7 41. 5 48.2 52. 6 46. 7 49.4 52. 6 59.3 49.2 37.5 41.6 50. 7 44.3 47. 1 44. 9 46.2 43. 8 37.0 44. 3 54.6 68.8 79.5 72.5 78.9 77. 1 87.4 74.7 59. 6 66.6 78.8 19. 1 19.4 20.1 21.9 22.6 22.9 23.0 24.6 27.8 31.1 32.8 30.0 30.9 31. 7 31. 7 32. 1 32.6 33.5 33.1 Undistributed profits 25.2 27.6 24.7 24.2 21.2 14, 1 21.3 30.0 40.9 48.4 39.6 48.9 46.2 55. 7 43. 0 27.5 34.0 45. 3 Inventory valuation adjustment -1.9 —2. 1 -1.7 -3.4 — 5.5 — 5. 1 — 5.0 -6.6 -18.4 -38.5 -11.2 —28.0 — 33.7 -54.7 -37.7 -13.7 —6.6 —9.9 -147 NOTE.—Revised series. See Survey of Current Business, January 1976. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT Business fixed investment, after leveling off in the third quarter, rose $5.2 billion (annual rate) in the fourth quarter. Residential outlays increased $5,0 billion, about the same as in the third quarter. Inventory investment was approximately unchanged. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 120 300 - - - - NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT 100 _^^^\ """^i / >^ 80 - V - _ 60 140 "" \ .-*' 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 ! ! ! I 1 1 1 40 t I I I I I I I I BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 I I STRUCTURES CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES 80 I RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT 20 J -20 -40 1 1 1 1 1972 1974 1973 1975 1 1 40 1976 1972 1973 1974 *SEASQNAU,Y ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATIS SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1976 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Noiiresidential fixed investm*>nt Gross private domestic investment Period 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1974: I II III IV___ 1975: I II III IV _ 112.0 124.5 120. 8 131. 5 146. 2 140. 8 160.0 188. 3 220. 5 212.2 182.6 218.4 212. 7 207. 6 210. 3 168. 7 161.4 194. 9 205.4 Strucitures Total 71.3 81.4 82. 1 89. 3 98.9 100. 5 104. 1 116. 8 136. 5 147.9 148.5 145. 9 146. 6 148. 1 151. 1 149. 3 146. 1 146. 7 151.9 Total Nonfarm Total Nonfarm 26. 1 29.2 29. 5 31. 6 35. 7 37.7 39.3 42. 5 49. 0 54.4 52. 7 53.4 54. 1 54. 0 56. 1 54.9 51. 1 51.2 53.6 25. 1 28. 1 28.2 30.4 34.3 36. 1 37. 8 41. 1 46. 8 52. 1 50. 5 51. 1 51. 8 51. 7 53. 7 52.6 48. 8 49. 0 51.5 45. 1 52. 2 52. 6 57. 7 63. 3 62. 8 64. 7 74. 3 87. 5 93. 5 95.8 92. 5 92.4 94. 1 95. 0 94.4 95.0 95. 6 98.3 41.2 47. 9 48.0 53.4 58. 9 58. 1 59. 9 69. 1 80. 7 86. 0 88.2 85. 6 85. 0 86. 6 86. 7 86.7 87.2 88. 6 90.4 NOTE.—Revised series. See Survey of Current Business, January 1976. 8 Prod ucers' dur able equip ment Resid ential fix ed investment PTT» Total 31. 2 28. 7 28.6 34. 5 37.9 36. 6 49. 6 62. 0 66. 5 54. 6 48. 7 57. 6 56. 9 55. 0 48. 7 44.2 45. 0 50.4 55.4 Nonfarm struc— tures 29. 9 27.4 27. 2 33. 1 36. 3 35. 1 47. 9 60. 3 64. 7 52. 2 46. 8 55. 3 54. 6 52. 7 46. 3 42. 6 43. 1 48. 2 53. 3 Farm ducers' durstrucable tures equipment 0. 6 .7 .7 .6 .7 .6 .7 .7 .6 1.0 .6 1. 0 .9 .9 1. 2 .4 .5 .8 .7 Change in business inv entories Total Nonfarm 0. 7 .7 .7 .8 9. 5 14. 3 10. 1 7. 7 14. 5 .9 1. 0 1. 1 1. 2 1. 3 1. 3 1. 3 3. 8 3. 7 5. 1 .9 1.4 1.4 1. 3 1.2 1. 3 1.4 1. 4 9.4 6.4 9. 4 17. 5 9. 7 -14. 6 14.9 9. 3 4. 4 10.4 -24. 8 -29. 6 -2. 1 -2.0 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8.5 9.4 7.6 9.2 8.8 14. 1 11.6 -16. 5 14. 1 11.0 7.6 13.7 -23.3 -29.6 -5.7 -7.5 FOR NEW EQUIPMENT Business plans to increase capital spendins 5K percent in 1976, according to the annual survey conducted in late November and December. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS {RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT 20 20 1968 1976 I J/ SEE FOOTNOTE BELOW. SOURCEs &EPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Starts (>f plant E:?penditur<2s for plarit and equdpment M anufaetur]ing Dur- Non- Total able goods durable goods 31.68 31. 95 15. 96 15. 80 14. 15 15. 64 19. 25 22. 62 22. 05 projc3cts 3 N onmanuf acturing Period Total i and eqilipment Total Mining Com- Commer- Transportation Public utilities munication 6.05 6. 04 4. 93 5. 72 6. 03 6 66 7. 28 6. 37 11. 61 13. 14 15. 30 17. 00 18. 71 20. 55 20. SI 23. 99 8.30 16. 05 10. 10 16. 59 10. 77 18. 05 11. 89 20. 07 12. 85 21.40 13. 96 22. 05 13.09 20. 67 34. 95 cial and 2 Manufactur- ing Public utilities other 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 4 5 75. 56 79. 71 81. 21 88. 44 99. 74 112. 40 113. 49 119. 68 29.99 31. 35 38. 01 46. 01 48.31 50. 71 ff)ff) C)3) &&. && 15. 72 16. 15 15.84 15.72 18. 76 23. 39 26. 27 28. 48 43.88 68.98 1.86 1. 89 2. 16 2. 42 2. 74 3. 18 8. 82 3. 67 65. 52 63. 68 64. 76 3. 76 3. 78 3. 82 7.30 7. 05 7. 86 20. 28 13. 36 20. 82 19. 52 12. 50 20. 83 12. 95 20. 34 19. 79 -— , ' s„ 3. 93 6.94 6. 89 21.54 23. 62 47. 76 51. 22 57. 09 61. 73 66.39 66. 18 114. 57 112. 46 112. 16 49.05 48.78 22. 86 22.59 26. 20 26. 19 47. 39 21. 01 26.38 IV 4 -__ Ilk 80 1976: I 4 4 , 118. 16 II 120. 87 48.16 49. 88 51. 37 21. 82 26. 34 22.34 27.53 66. 64 68. 28 23. 27 28. 10 69.50 1975: I II III 1 Excludes agricultural business; real estate operators; medical, legal, educational, and cultural service; and nonprofit organizations. These figures do not agree precisely with the nonresidential fixed investment data in gross national product estimates, mainly because these data include investment by farmers, professionals, institutions, and real estate firms, and certain outlays charged to current account. 2 Includes trade, service, construction, finance, and insurance. s Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during given period. 4. oo 34. 07 29. 18 28. 00 35. 21 47. 57 15. 16 17. 20 22. 22 28. 60 38. 13 52.49 45.74 12. 12 12. 80 11. 29 5. 34 9. 19 14. 82 34. 24 33. 76 * Expenditures estimates based on expected capital expenditures as reported by business in late October and November 1975. 6 Expenditures estimates based on annual survey conducted in late November and December 1975. NOTE.—Annual total is the sum of unadjusted quarterly totals. Estimates (as noted in footnotes 4 and 5) include adjustments when necessary for systematic biases in expectations data. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. OF LABOR Seasonally adjusted employment increased by 800,000 in January to 86.2 million, the highest level since July 1974. Unemployment fell by 445,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 19.69 1968 1971 1970 1973 1972 1974 1975 •*K YEARS OF AGE AND OVER. SOURCE, 0EPMTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS n thousands of persons, 16 years of age and over] Period Noninstitutional population 1976 Civilian Unememploy- ployment ment Total labor Civilian force (includ- labor force ing Armed Forces) * Civilian eimploymen Unempl(^yment Nonagri cultural Tntal Agricultural TV»f al Part-time for economic reasons * Tntfll 15 weeks and over Labor force participation rate (per-2 cent) 1971. 1972* 1973* 1974. 1975 142, 145, 148, 150, 153, 596 79, 120 775 81, 702 263 84, 409 827 85, 936 449 84, 783 U aadjusted 4,993 4,840 4,304 5,076 7,830 86, 88, 91, 93, 94, 929 991 040 240 793 84, 113 86, 542 88, 714 91, Oil 92, 613 79, 81, 84, 85, 84, 120 702 409 936 783 3,387 75, 732 2,440 3,472 78, 230 2,408 3,452 80, 957 2, 311 3,492 82, 443 2, 709 3,490 3, 380 81, 403 Seas<3nally adjusted 4,993 4,840 4,304 5, 076 7,830 1, 182 1, 158 812 937 2,483 61.0 61.0 61.4 61. 8 61. 8 1975: Jan Feb Mar Apr May_.__ June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1976: Jan 152, 152, 152, 152, 153, 153, 153, 153, 154, 154, 154, 154, 230 445 646 840 051 278 585 824 052 256 476 700 82, 969 82, 604 83, 036 83, 549 84, 146 85, 444 86, 650 86, 612 85, 274 86, 023 85, 556 85, 536 8, 180 8,309 8,359 7,820 7,623 8, 569 8,209 7,696 7, 522 7,244 7,231 7, 195 94, 93, 94, 94, 94, 94, 95, 95, 95, 95, 95, 95, 156 721 078 449 950 747 250 397 298 377 273 286 91, 91, 91, 92, 92, 92, 93, 93, 93, 93, 93, 93, 84, 84, 84, 84, 84, 84, 84, 85, 85, 85, 85, 85, 666 163 110 313 519 498 967 288 158 151 178 394 3,370 3,252 3,268 3, 301 3, 528 3,350 3,439 3,464 3, 512 3,408 3, 301 3,236 81, 296 80, 911 80, 842 81, 012 80, 991 81, 148 81, 528 81, 824 81, 646 81, 743 81, 877 82, 158 3,758 3, 627 3, 799 3, 803 3, 750 3,422 3,277 3,234 3, 291 3, 361 3, 353 3,243 7,297 7, 360 7,770 7,941 8,250 8, 071 8, 096 7, 924 7,970 8, 062 7,939 7,735 1,572 1, 828 1,978 2,278 2,529 2, 751 2,954 2,878 2,934 2,719 3,004 3,080 61.9 61.5 61. 6 61. 8 62. 0 61. 8 62. 0 62.0 61.9 61. 8 61.7 61.6 154, 915 84, 491 8,174 95, 624 86, 194 3,343 82, 851 3,482 7,290 2,785 61.7 963 523 880 254 769 569 063 212 128 213 117 129 93, 484 *Data beginning January 1972 not strictly comparable with prior data because •of adjustment to 1970 Census data, whicn added about 800,000 to the civilian noninstitutional population, 333,000 to the civilian labor force, and 301,000 to •civilian employment. A further adjustment in March 1973 added 60,000 to the labor force and to employment. 10 1 2 Persons at work in nonagricultural industries. Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of age and over. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate declined by 0.5 percentage point to 7.8 percent in January. This is substantially below the peak unemployment rate of 8.9 percent in May. PERCENT* fSEASONALLY ADJUSTED) P0*CENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 10 1972 1973 i 1974 I I 1975 1976 •UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. COUNOt Of ECOHOMJC ADVISERS SOURC& DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unernployme nt rate ( percent crf eiviliaii labor f <oree in group) Total (all civilian workers) Period 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1975: Jan Feb____ Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept. Oct Nov Dec 1976: Jan _ 5.9 5.6 4.9 5.6 8.5 7.9 8.0 8.5 8.6 8.9 8. 7 8.7 8. 5 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.3 7.8 ExpeMen Women Both rienced Negro 20 20 wage House- Fulltime sexes White and hold workyears years 16-19 and other salary heads and and ers races workover years over ers 4.4 4.0 3.2 3.8 6.7 5.9 6.2 6.6 6. 8 7.2 7.0 7. 1 6. 8 7.2 7.2 7. 1 6.6 5.8 5.7 5.4 4.8 5.5 8.0 7.9 7.9 8.3 8.5 8.4 8.2 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.9 7.9 8.0 7.5 16.9 1&2 14.5 16.0 19.9 19.8 19.4 20. 1 19.7 20.3 20.7 20.5 20.7 19.4 19.8 19.0 19.6 19.9 1 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part-time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. 5.4 5.0 4.3 5.0 7.8 7.3 7.3 7.8 7.9 8.3 ao 8.1 7.8 7.8 8.0 7.8 7.6 7.1 9.9 10.0 8.9 9.9 13.9 iao 13.3 13.8 14.1 14.2 140 13.4 14.3 14.4 14.3 13.9 13.8 ia2 5.7 5.3 4.5 5.3 8.2 7.6 7.7 8.2 8.6 8.9 8.6 8.4 8.3 a3 8.4 a3 ai 7.4 3.6 3.3 2.9 as 5.8 5.2 5.3 5.7 5.8 6.1 6.1 6.1 5.7 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.1 5.5 5.1 4.3 5.1 8.1 7.5 7.6 8.0 8.3 8.5 8.4 8.5 ai a4 as 8.3 7,9 7.3 Labor force time Partlost time (perwork- cent) * ers a7 ae 7.9 8.6 10.3 ia4 HX2 10.8 10.5 10.7 10. 1 9.9 10.3 9.9 10,4 10.2 10.5 las 6.4 6.0 5.2 6.1 9.1 a7 aT 9.3 9.4 9.7 a& a& at 9.1 9,4 aa a0 a4 Source: Department 01 Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistical 11 UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE In January, seasonally adjusted insured unemployment under State prosrams averaged 2.9 million or 278,000 less than in December. The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate dropped from 4.8 percent in December to 4.5 percent in January. ________^__ MILLIONS OF PERSONS MILLIONS OF PERSONS ,i_J 2 JAN. MAR. APRIL MAY JUNE AUG. JULY SEPT. OCT. State prog]rams A11 progranis Insurec .unemInsure d unemIn itial Benefit s paid Insured Total ploymen t as perCl£dms unem- benefits ployment Avercent of covered Expaid Covered ployTotal age emplo yment haus(milemploy- ment Season(mil- weekly Unad- SeasonUnadlions tions ment (weekly ally adally adUnad- Season- lions of check averof dol- justed justed justed justed ad- dollars) (doljusted ally age) lars) lars) justed Thou sands 2, 192 1972 66, 458 1973 69, 897 1,793 1974 *__ 71, 905 2,558 4,920 1975* 5,213 1975: Jan 5,751 Feb. 5,886 Mar_ Apr 5,647 5, 202 May 4,892 June July 4,979 Aug _ _ 4,576 Sept* 4,238 4,039 Get* 4, 120 Nov * _ _ _ 4,461 Dec* _ _ _ _ 4,962 1976: Jan* _ _ _ _ Week ended: 4,934 1976: Jan 24___ 4,814 31___ 4,771 Feb 7___ 4,734 14* 21 *>_ 5, 491. 1 4, 517. 3 6, 933. 9 1, 256. 6 1, 312. 3 1, 490. 4 1, 539. 7 1, 395. 2 1, 256. 7 1, 406. 6 1, 199. 0 1, 095. 2 1, 096. 6 962. 0 ^ 1,848 1,632 2,262 3,973 4,752 5,108 5,091 4,775 4,281 3,878 3,861 3,422 3,061 2,919 3,046 3,410 3,899 Veekly av srage, tl lousands 261 246 363 472 3,585 795 565 546 3,856 609 545 4,106 510 525 463 4, 297 401 4,457 494 487 427 4,354 4,189 421 480 4,093 375 443 4,068 340 449 3,891 439 367 402 386 3,572 375 3,220 501 2,942 551 347 3,871 3, 780 3,758 3,730 Source: Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration. 12 DEC COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCEi DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Period NOV. 2,890 2,835 2,858 2,813 486 451 453 392 368 365 345 854 322 350 35 29 37 50 58 66 84 92 104 105 97 83 75 73 Per<sent 3. 5 2.7 3.5 6.0 7.2 5.4 7. 8 5,8 6.2 7. 7 7.2 6.5 6.4 6. 7 6.5 5.8 6.3 5.8 5. 1 6.1 4.6 6.1 4.4 5.8 4. 6 5.4 4.8 5. 1 4.5 5. 9 5.9 5. 7 5. 7 5. 7 4.4 4*3 4.3 4*3 4, 471. 0 4, 007. 6 5, 974. 9 56. 76 59.00 64.25 1, 128. 2 1, 164. 2 1, 290. 6 1, 301. 2 1, 145. 1 984.0 1, 086. 9 979.7 763.8 734.2 750. 4 675. 1 67.83 68.73 69. 07 69. 08 69. 33 69. 58 71. 58 70. 98 71. 22 72. 18 72.30 72.98 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Nonfarm payroll employment (seasonally adjusted) increased by 358,000 in January. The number of jobs in January was 1.7 million higher than in April 1975 but still 0.7 million below the peak in September 1974. MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKfRS MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS (SEASONALLY ADJUST^) (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) (ENLARGED SCA LE) 80 76 18 ^*!^_ALL n;—NJs » ? te B1«x^ NONAGRICULTUR/ ESTABLISHMENTS _ 16 - >-r~1 ^ I ' WHOLESAL ". AND RETAIL TR/ ,DE ~ 72 14 44 r \ „* ""T <» 12 "" NONMANUFACTURING (PRIVATE) 40 „«•••••••" MANUFAC "URING - •IIMIIMIIUIIIIIIJI..,,., 20 X„ *«••..., - «.»" ' NONDURAB .E MANUFACTURING \ f ~ 12 • "' GOVERNMENT A\ \ I \ } \ 1 1 1 11 * 1 1 11 1 I 1 1 | ! 1 1973 1974 1 1 ! 1 1 l.f f 1*1 I f 4 , r , , , I , , r , ,' I ! f f I f t f I fK 1976 1975 M V _ fc_ - -£_ " -•—— ..— «•*'*" CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION 16 .prt. mrt «»'**"-" . • >t . .. DURABLE %"•* MANUFACTURIN 10 ~ f , - - ^ "'" ~ 24 __ SERVICES . *N^ l iiif! r i if i f f f i ? ! i i r ii 1973 f f f 1 f f F ? 1 f 1K 1975 1974 SOURCEi DEPARTMENT OF UBOR 1976 M COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADV1SSRS [Thousands of wage and salary workers; 1 seasonally adjusted] Manufac Jturing ( private) Total Period I 1 NonTotal Durable goods durable goods Government N onmanu facturing I (private ) Total TransPnn Vv'UIl tract portation Mining conand strue- public t/ion utilities WTinlo V» WJH$*" sale and retail trade Finance, insurance, Services Federal and real estate State and local 71, 222 73, 714 76, 896 78, 413 76, 984 18, 572 19, 090 20, 068 20, 046 18, 347 10, 597 11,006 11, 839 11, 895 10, 680 7,975 8,084 8, 229 8, 151 7, 668 39, 762 41, 284 43, 090 44, 190 43, 865 609 625 644 694 745 3,639 3,831 4,015 3,957 3,457 4,457 4, 517 4,644 4,696 4,498 15, 352 15, 975 16, 674 17, 017 16, 948 3,802 3,943 4,091 4,208 4,223 11, 903 12, 392 13, 021 13, 617 13, 995 2,696 2,684 2,663 2,724 2,748 10, 192 10, 656 11, 071 11, 451 12, 024 1974: Dec__ 77, 723 19, 190 11, 357 7, 833 44, 112 686 3,770 4,659 16, 935 4, 229 13, 833 2,738 11,683 1975: Jan__ Feb.. Mar_ Apr__ May_ June_ July. Aug__ Sept. Oct.. Nov.. Dec * 77, 319 76, 804 76, 468 76, 462 76, 510 76, 343 76, 679 77, 023 77, 310 77, 555 77, 574 77, 782 18, 798 18, 375 18, 226 18, 155 18, 162 18, 100 18, 084 18, 254 18, 417 18, 493 18, 482 18, 573 11, 099 10, 813 10, 728 10, 637 10, 595 10, 527 10, 465 10, 563 10, 650 10, 661 10, 653 10, 725 7, 699 7,562 7,498 7,518 7, 567 7, 573 7, 619 7, 691 7, 767 7,832 7,829 7, 848 44, 054 43, 835 43, 624 43, 615 43, 622 43, 552 43, 779 43, 914 44, 048 44, 098 44, 117 44, 216 723 724 729 732 738 741 743 749 752 774 766 770 3, 749 4,603 3,592 4, 565 3,467 4, 506 3,441 4,508 3,439 4,491 3,392 4,469 3,395 4,464 3,415 4,466 3,432 4,467 3,402 4,476 3,409 4,496 3,396 4,469 16, 903 16, 879 16, 581 16, 847 16, 857 16, 877 16, 984 17, 016 17, 045 17, 043 17, 010 17, 088 4,219 4,210 4,207 4,209 4,208 4,202 4,203 4, 218 4,239 4,246 4,248 4,264 13, 857 13, 865 13, 864 13, 878 13, 889 13, 871 13, 990 14, 050 14, 113 14, 157 14, 188 14, 229 2, 734 2,733 2,733 2, 731 2,732 2,738 2,745 2, 756 2,765 2,767 2, 761 2,755 11, 733 11, 861 11, 855 11, 961 11, 991 11, 953 12, 071 12, 099 12, 080 12, 197 12, 214 12, 238 1976: Jan*_ 78, 140 18, 712 10, 808 7,904 44, 427 767 3,400 4, 491 17, 207 4,275 14, 287 2,754 12, 247 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975" 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 10, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 13 WEEKLY AND HOURLY PRIVATE NONHGRICULTURJIIi INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervlsory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Total private nonagricultural l Period Overtime Total private nonagricultural l Manufacturing Manufstcturing Total Adjusted hourly earnSngs Index2 —tc>tal private nonagricultural Averag e gross hourly iiarningg Aver age weekly 1lours Percent ehLange from a year <earlier 4 Index, 1<967=100 1967 dollars 3 Current dollars Current dollars 37.8 37.7 37.1 37.0 37.1 37.1 36.6 36. 1 40.6 40.7 40.6 39.8 39.9 40.6 40.7 40.0 39.4 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.0 2.9 3.5 3.8 3.2 2.6 $2.68 2.85 3. 04 3. 22 3.44 3.67 3. 92 4.22 4.54 $2.83 3.01 3. 19 3.36 3.57 3.81 4.08 4.41 4.81 100.0 106. 3 113.3 120.8 129.4 137.8 146.6 158.6 172.6 100.0 102.0 103.2 103.9 106.7 110.0 110. 1 107.4 107. 1 4,8 6.3 6.6 1975: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct. Nov Dec » 3&2 39.2 38.8 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8 4.41 4.43 4.46 4.47 4.49 4.51 4.54 4.57 166.3 167.8 169. 1 169.4 170.6 172.2 173. 1 174.6 175.2 176.7 178.2 9.5 9.8 9.9 9.5 9.0 m.5 106.2 106.7 107. 1 106.8 107.0 107.2 106.7 107.3 107. 2 107.4 107.7 107.3 1976: Jan * 36.6 179.8 107.6 1967 1968__ 1969— 1970. 1971 1972_ 1973... 1974. 1975' 3&0 — „ 36.1 35.9 35.9 35.9 36.0 36. 0 36.2 36. 1 36.2 36.3 36.4 3a9 39. 1 39.0 39.3 39.4 39.7 39.8 39.8 39.9 40.3 40.4 as 3.0 4.63 4.68 4.68 4.65 4.68 4.72 4.73 4.75 4.78 4.82 4.86 4.88 4.90 4.93 4.96 3.0 4.73 4.99 460 1967 dollars 3 1.9 2.0 1.2 .7 2.7 ae 7.1 6.5 6.4 8.2 3. 1 .1 -2.5 as —.3 -2. 0 — 1. 1 7.9 -.4 -.6 — .5 -.6 -.8 . 1 .2 .5 1.1 .8 a2 L3 a7 8.8 8.8 8. 1 8.2 a5 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS—PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURJIII INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Average gross weekly earnings Total private nonagncuitural i Period Current dollars 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971... 1972 1973 1974 1975 » — _ _ ., 1975: Jan Feb. Mar Apr. May June July.. Aug Sept Oct Nov.. Dec" . , . 1976: Jan » 1 Also includes other 8 Manufacturing 1967 dollars 8 Retail trade * Current dollars Current dollar 3 $101. 84 107. 73 114. 61 119. 46 127. 28 136. 16 145. 43 154.45 163. 89 $101. 84 103. 39 104. 38 102. 72 104.93 108. 67 109. 26 104. 57 101. 67 $114. 90 122. 51 129. 51 133. 73 142. 44 154.69 166. 06 176. 40 189. 51 $154. 95 164.49 181. 54 195. 45 211. 67 222. 51 235. 69 249. 08 265. 35 $70. 95 7495 78.66 82.47 86.61 90.99 95.57 101. 04 108. 22 3.1 5.8 6.4 42 6.5 7.0 6.8 6.2 159. 64 159. 92 160. 11 160. 47 161. 19 162. 36 163. 44 165. 43 166. 06 167. 61 169. 88 170. 35 102. 01 101. 67 101. 40 101. 12 101. 06 101. 10 100. 76 101. 62 101. 57 101. 89 102. 65 102. 37 182. 28 181. 58 183. 61 184. 94 185. 25 187. 85 189. 91 192. 94 194 22 195. 02 196. 71 199. S9 261. 52 256. 86 250. 58 26422 26420 259. 54 265. 35 267. 91 268. 64 267. 91 272. 69 277. 88 104 65 105. 30 106. 28 106. 27 107. 58 107. 57 107. 55 10a 85 7.1 6.2 110. 14 110. 83 111. 15 7.0 5.3 5.4 5.0 5.9 5.6 5.8 7.9 7.1 173. 12 103. 60 201. 60 283. 88 112. 10 a4 private industry groups shown on p. 13. Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing. s Current dollar index (or earninp) divided by the consumer price index. 14 Contract construction Percent chiinge from a year e arlier, total pri1rate nonagricidtural ioas4 6. 1 6. 1 < Monthly changes based on indexes to 2 decimal places* * Includes eating and drinking places. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics^ 1967 dollars 0.2 1.5 1.0 — 1.6 2.2 ae .5 -43 -2.8 -41 —43 — 3.8 —2.9 —3.9 — 3.7 -42 -2.6 -2.2 -1.7 .5 .1 L6 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, PRIVATE ECONOMY Period Total private Output ]per hour of all i>ersons Hours of all perg»ons2 OutiHit1 Private nonfarm Total private Private nonfarm Total private Private nonfarm Compejnsation per ] lour 3 Total Private Private nonfarm Unit labor CO sts Total Private Implicjit price defla tor * Private nonfarm Total private Private nonfarm 1967 == 100;<|ua]rterly dat.a, season*illy adjuslbed 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 92.3 97.8 100.0 104. 5 107.2 92. 0 97.8 100.0 104.7 107.5 97.5 99.7 100. 0 101.7 1043 96.4 99.5 100. 0 102. 0 105.2 94 6 98.0 100. 0 102. 7 102. 8 95.4 98. 4 100. 0 102. 6 102.2 88. 5 §47 100.0 107.7 115.4 89. 1 94 6 100. 0 107.4 1146 93. 5 96.6 100. 0 104.8 112. 3 93.4 96.2 100.0 1047 112. 1 94 4 97.3 100.0 104 1 109.2 94 3 97. 0 100. 0 104 1 109. 1 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 106.8 110.2 117.4 124. 3 121. 5 106.9 110.2 117.7 124.7 122.0 102.8 102.4 105. 6 109. 3 109. 6 104 0 103. 6 107.0 111. 1 111.5 103. 9 107. 7 111.2 113.7 110.8 102.8 106.4 110. 0 112. 2 109. 5 123.6 132. 1 140. 0 151. 4 165.7 122.4 130. 7 138. 8 149. 6 163. 9 119. 0 122.6 125.9 133.2 149.6 119. 0 122. 9 126. 2 133. 4 149. 7 114 3 119. 6 123.8 130.8 143. 4 114 4 119. 8 123. 5 128. 6 141. 6 118. 5 118. 5 105.5 107. 2 112. 2 110.5 180.8 178. 6 161. 1 161.7 156. 7 155.7 1973: I II III IV 123.6 123. 7 124.6 125. 0 123. 9 124. 2 125. 3 125. 3 108.1 109. 3 110. 0 110. 5 109. 9 111. 1 111. 8 112. 4 1144 113. 2 113. 3 113.2 112.8 111. 7 112. 0 111. 6 147.6 149. 5 152. 1 155. 5 145.7 147. 7 150. 4 153. 8 129. 1 132. 1 139.2 137.4 129. 1 132. 2 134 2 137. 8 127.2 129.4 131.8 1346 125.9 127. 5 129. 1 132. 0 1974: I II III IV..— 123. 3 122. 5 121. 6 118. 7 123. 9 123.0 122.2 119. 1 110.4 110. 3 110.0 108.4 111. 112. 112. 110. 9 2 1 3 111. 7 111. 0 110.5 109. 5 110. 7 109.7 109. 0 108. 0 158.4 163.3 168. 3 172.2 157. 0 161.5 165. 9 170. 2 141.8 147. 1 152. 3 157. 3 141. 9 147. 2 152. 2 157. 6 137. 5 141. 0 145.4 150, 1 1347 139. 6 144 0 148. 6 1975: I. II III IV 115. 6 116. 5 120. 1 121. 8 115. 5 116.7 120. 0 121. 7 105. 3 104 6 105. 3 106. 6 107.2 106. 3 106. 8 108. 5 109. 8 111.4 114 0 114 2 107. 7 109.8 112. 3 112. 1 176, 6 179.3 182. 3 185. 7 173. 9 176. 8 180. 6 183.4 160.9 161.0 159. 8 162. 6 161. 5 161. 0 160. 8 163. 6 153.5 155. 1 157.8 160. 4 152. 8 154 1 156.4 159.2 1975 - Perceiit change ; quarterlyT data at seasonal] y adjuste<i annual rates 1965 1966 1967 1968.. 1969 6.2 5.9 2.3 45 2.6 6. 3 6.4 2.2 4.7 2.7 3. 1 2.2 .3 1.7 2. 5 3. 6 3.2 .5 2. 0 3. 1 3. 0 3.6 2. 0 2.7 .1 2.6 3.1 1.7 2. 6 —.4 40 7.0 5.6 7. 7 7.2 3. 6 6.2 5. 7 7.4 6.7 1. 0 3.3 3.5 48 7. 1 1.0 3.0 3. 9 47 7. 1 2.0 3. 1 2.8 41 49 1.7 2.8 3. 1 41 47 -.4 3.2 6.5 5.9 -2.2 -.5 3. 1 6.8 5.9 -2. 1 — 1.4 —.5 3. 1 3.6 .3 -1. 1 -. 3 3. 3 3.8 .3 1. 1 3.7 3.2 2.2 2.5 .6 3.4 3.4 2.0 2.4 7.1 6.8 6.0 8.2 9.5 6.8 6.8 6.2 7.8 9. 5 6. 0 3. 1 2. 7 5.8 12. 3 6. 1 3. 3 2.7 5.7 12.2 47 46 3.5 5.6 9. 7 49 47 3. 1 42 ia i -2.5 -2.9 -3.7 -3.8 1.3 .9 9. 1 9.0 7.7 ai 9.3 9.9 1973: I II..... Ill IV 10.0 .3 3.0 1.3 9.1 .7 5.0 45 2.7 1.7 6.1 45 2.6 1.8 48 -4 1 .3 —.4 2.8 -3.6 1. 1 -1.7 13.6 5.2 6. S 9.4 11.4 5. 9 7.3 9.3 8.4 9.7 6.6 9.8 8.4 9. 9 6.2 11.2 6.2 7. 3 7.6 8.6 42 5. 1 S, 1 9. 3 1974: I. II III.... TV..... — 5.6 -2.5 —2.9 —9.1 -47 —2.6 -2.7 -9.7 -1.6 1.0 —.3 -6. 1 -5. 1 -2.4 -1.9 -3.6 — 3. 1 -3.6 -2.4 -3.8 7.8 12. 9 12. 7 9. 8 8.8 11.8 116 10. 7 13. 6 15.7 148 13.9 12.3 15.9 143 15.0 8.9 10. 6 13.1 13. 8 8.5 15.2 13.2 13.4 -10.2 3.2 13. 1 5. 6 -11.7 44 11.7 5.7 — 10.9 -3.4 2. 1 6.4 1.0 6. 0 9.9 .6 10.5 6.4 6. 7 7.8 9. 1 6.8 R7 6.5 9.4 .4 -2.9 7. 1 10.1 -1.1 y• 7.2 9.1 42 7.4 6.6 11.9 3. 5 6.2 7.3 — 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 -, 1975 1975: I. II Ill IV 1 2 Output a7 .1 —.5 —. 1 -1.0 -5. 7 — 11.2 -2.7 2.9 5.0 refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars. Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in production, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment date. •Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments lor the self-employed. 66-081*—76 3 -, 9 8.0 9.4 -.7 « Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. NOTE.—Percent changes are from preceding period; and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production increased 0.7 percent in January following revised increases of 0.6 percent in November and 0.9 percent in December. All major components of the index continued to rise in January. INDEX, 1967^100* (RATIO SCALE) 180 INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE) UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION 140 160 UTILITIES 140 100 120 MINING p% ^ I 1972 160 1973 1974 1975 1976 100 MANUFA CTURING !'RODUCTION 140 Minimi! H 1 1 i I 11 !1 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 NOh1DURABLE ,• * "% 120 I ^X"*"* \ S**~\ / S*^ DURABLE \ 100 ! ! J J t If 1 11 L nt 1972 C^- it ( i f in U 1 1 ' I HM L ! 1973 • 70 I I 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! t 1 ! I 1 1 II 1975 1974 60 1976 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE, BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Total iiidustrial prodiiction Percent Period Index, change 1967= from 100 year earlier 1967 proportion 100. 00 1969 110.7 4.7 1970 •_. 106.6 -3.7 .2 1971 106. 8 115.2 1972 7. 9 1973 125.6 9.0 1974 . 1248 -.6 1975 9 .. 113.8 -8.8 113. 7 -9.3 1975: Jan 111.2 -10. 8 Feb Mar_. 110.1 — 11. 7 Apr 109.9 — 12. 0 May. 110. 1 — 12.4 June 111. 1 — 11. 7 112.2 -10.6 July 114.2 Aug -8.8 na2 -7.5 Sept_ Oct_ -6.5 116, 7 Nov 117.4 -3.5 Dec * 118. 5 .9 1976: Jan » 119.3 4.9 1 Output as percent of capacity. 2 Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. s Annual data are averages of quarterly data. 16 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Seasonally adjusted] Indust ry produ ction ind exes, 196'r=ioo M,anufacturi ng Total Durable Nondurable Mining Utilities 88.55 110.5 105.2 105.2 114. 0 125. 1 124.4 112.2 111.8 109.3 107.7 107,9 108.2 109. 5 110. 6 112. 8 114.7 115.8 116.4 117.4 118.2 6%.$$ 110.0 101.4 99. 4 108.4 122.0 120.7 105.8 108.2 104.8 103.5 103.3 102. 5 103.2 103.4 105.4 107.0 107.6 107.8 108.6 109.4 36. 22 111. 1 110.6 113.5 122. 1 129. 7 129.7 121. 5 117. 2 115,6 113. 7 114.8 116.2 118. 6 120.8 123.4 125. 7 127.2 129.0 130.6 131.0 6.38 107.2 109. 7 107. 0 108.8 110. 3 109. 3 106.5 107.0 108.6 108. 9 108.5 105. 9 106.3 106.4 105. 0 105. 3 106.4 106.0 103. 3 104. 7 5.07 119. 5 128. 3 133.9 143.4 152.6 149.9 153. 8 152. 1 150.9 154 1 153. 1 152. 3 152. 6 153. 9 1546 156. 1 152. 9 154 2 155. 0 155.7 Manuf acturing (3apacity iitilization rate, p srcent x Federal Reserve senti s 2 3 ComWharTotal merce4 ton 3 Major manuseries series matefacturrials ing 86. 5 78. 3 75.0 78.6 83. 0 78.9 68. 7 90.0 86. 2 85. 3 89.6 93.0 87.0 749 85 81 80 83 86 83 95.6 87.9 85.3 89.6 95.8 91.3 79, 3 6R2 70.0 75 7as 67. 0 70.9 75 77.2 68. 9 7ao 79 79.8 70.8 80.6 82. 0 * Quarterly data are for last month In quarter. Annual data are averages of four monthly indexes. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System, Department of "Tommerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), and Wharton School of Finance. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS [1967=100, seasonally adjusted] Proclucts Final p roduets Coiisumer goods Period Total NonDurable durable goods goods 20.66 7.86 105.0 110.9 110. 1 113. 7 112.4 104.8 115. 9 115. 1 122.8 125. 7 129. 0 138. 9 129.2 127. 9 128.4 112. 6 126.3 104. 0 125.6 101.0 124.2 103. 1 124. 0 107.8 125. 3 110. 5 127.2 113. 2 129. 0 115. 9 129.4 116. 1 130. 1 118.3 130. 5 118, 3 132.5 119.0 135. 1 120.5 136.1 121. 5 Total 1967 proportion 1968— 1969 1970. 1971.._.__. 1972 .. 1973 1974.. 1975* 1975: Jan Feb Mar . Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct No v Dec » 1976: Jan» 48.94 105.8 109. 0 _ 1045 104.7 111. 9 121.3 121.7 115.5 - 114.9 — 113. 4 112.2 112.6 113. 7 , 114. 5 . 115. 7 115. 9 116.9 117. 0 117.8 119.8 120.6 28. 6$ 106.6 111. 1 110.3 115. 7 123.6 131.7 128.8 124. 1 120. 1 118. 9 118.2 119. 7 121. 2 123.3 125.5 125.7 126.8 127.0 128.6 130. 8 132. 1 Equip ment IntermLediate prod ucts Total Business Total 20.42 104.7 106. 1 96. 3 89.4 95. 5 18.74 103.4 107.9 101.4 96.8 106. 1 122. 6 129.4 116.6 122.3 119.3 117.0 115.4 115.0 113.9 113.9 114. 9 115.6 115.7 116.4 117.3 118. 1 IS. 27 ioa7 111. 7 103.6 107.8 105.3 103.9 103.0 102.9 102.2 102.2 102.3 102.8 102.6 102.8 103.6 104,3 105. 7 112.0 111. 7 112. 5 121. 1 131. 0 128. 3 116.3 117,6 115. 1 112.7 113.4 112.4 112.8 114. 3 115.4 116.6 117.0 117.8 120.4 121.1 Construction 5.9S 106.2 113.0 110.0 112.6 120.8 133.8 129.6 112.4 115. 7 112. 1 109. 1 110. 1 107.6 106.8 108. 0 109. 3 112.0 112. 5 112.5 113.2 1140 Ma- terials 37.79 105. 7 112.4 107.7 107.4 117.4 129.3 127.4 110.5 110. 5 107.4 105.9 105.2 1049 106.0 106.8 111.5 115.1 116.5 116. 5 116.4 117.3 Supplementary group: Energy total 11.21 130. 7 127. 3 127,9 127. 1 127.4 127. 7 127.2 126. 6 128. 2 129.0 128.2 129. 1 127.9 128.0 127. 1 127.4 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1967= 100, seasonally adjusted] r Primary metals Period Total 1967 proportion 1968 1969 1970 1971 _ 1972 1973 1974_ ___„_ 1975 *_-„-. . 1975: Jan FebMar Apr May June July __„ Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec » 1976: Jan * 6.61 103. 2 114 1 106.9 100.9 113. 1 127.0 124 1 97. 2 107. 2 102. 1 98. 1 95.0 89.9 91.8 92.8 96. 5 97.2 97. 0 98. 1 94 5 9&3 Iron and steel Noiidurable Baanufaetu rers Durabl e manufacturers Transp<srtation ChemiTexequip>ment FabriPaper icals, Lumber tiles, MaFoods cated Motor petroand apparel, and chinand metal vehicles printleum, Total and tobacco products ery and products ing and leather parts rubber 4. 2S 5.93 17. 40 103. 6 113. 0 105. 3 96. 6 107. 1 121. 7 119. 9 96. 1 110. 6 105. 0 103. 1 99.4 90. 1 88. 7 87.0 90.4 91. 3 93.2 96.0 92. 1 95.4 106. 3 113.6 109.4 107.4 114 8 130. 5 131. 4 101. 9 106. 8 100. 3 96.2 107. 5 125. 8 128. 1 112.8 119.6 115.6 112.2 110.8 109.0 108.2 108.4 110.0 111, 7 112.9 114. 1 115.7 116.5 1148 118.2 113. 7 112.9 112.4 110. 9 110.9 109. 7 112. 7 116. 1 115. 9 117. 1 117. 0 119. 1 9.29 109.7 107.6 90.4 92.9 99.0 109. 1 96.9 88.3 78.9 77. 1 81.0 84 7 87.6 90. 5 91.0 92.9 94 3 94 7 94 1 95.4 942 4.56 117. 7 115.4 96.9 114 1 123.1 138. 1 113. 2 98. 1 78.2 77.6 85.4 93. 1 95.0 100.0 103.2 107.2 110. 1 111.0 109.4 110.2 109.3 1. 68 1048 108.6 106.3 113.9 122.4 127.9 120. 1 109. 9 99.9 99.6 99.8 104 1 108.0 110.3 112.0 114 5 115.5 116.8 115.0 118.3 6.90 1049 105, 9 100.2 100.7 108. 1 115.0 108. 9 97.9 88.9 89. 6 87. 5 90.4 93.2 949 97.4 100.2 1040 106.0 108.2 109. 5 109. 4 7.92 104 2 109. 1 107.8 107.8 116. 1 122.2 121. 0 109.7 108.2 106.6 1042 102.4 103. 9 107. 3 107.4 110.8 113. 9 1148 114 7 117.5 na7 11.92 109,6 118.4 118.2 1247 137.8 149. 3 151.7 140.4 136. 5 132.4 130.2 131.0 132.4 136. 2 140. 1 143.6 146. 2 148.5 150. 3 152.8 152. 5 9. 48 103.6 107.5 110.8 113.7 117.6 121.9 1248 1246 121. 1 121. 3 120. 0 122. 5 122.4 123. 5 1248 125. 2 126. 0 126. 3 129.2 129. 2 130.4 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System. 17 WEEKLY INDICATORS OF PRODUCTION Most of the weekly indicators of production (not seasonally adjusted) increased in January. MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS 16 MILLIONS OF TONS STEEL t973 i L.. i,.. 11... i... i. i. 1 1 » . . I. i. i. t . . ! . « . f i « . i f i f 111 i i J F M A M J J A S O N J D F M A M J J A S O N D BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS 50 ELECTRIC POWER 300 40 200 30 20 ly i 1 1 1 1 1 - i t I i i i l t i t i l i ii M I. t i i. t il t t i ii ii t In i I in t ! m ml t MI In . I ....I . t . t i t J F M A M J J A S O N D i I in I i : AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, AND WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS Period Weekly average: 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975*... .... 1974: Nov Dec 1975: Jan _„ Feb Mar... Apr May June.... July Aug Sept _ Oct _ Nov.._ Dec __. 1976: Jan > _._ Feb* Week ended: 1976: Jan 31 Feb 7 14 21 » 28* 1 Includes data for Alaska. 2 Not charted. 18 Steel p]reduced Thousands Index of net (1967= tons ICO) 2 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Electric Bituminous Paperboard Car s and triicks power coal mined Freight loaded produced assembled (thoiisands) distributed (thousands (thousands (thousands (millions of of short of cars) of tons) Total Cars Trucks kilowatt-hours) tons) l 2,709 2,522 2, 310 2,549 2,892 2,795 2,240 2,707 2,480 2,615 2,715 2,704 2,487 2,227 2, 038 1,894 1,952 2, 172 2,080 2, 030 2,001 2,216 111. 0 103. 4 94. 7 104.5 118.5 114.6 91.8 111. 0 101.6 107.2 111.3 110. 8 101.9 91. 3 83.5 77.6 80.0 89.0 85.3 83.2 82.0 90.8 27, 588 29, 317 30, 923 33, 540 35, 834 35, 839 36, 598 34, 839 36, 039 36, 360 36,423 35, 260 33, 912 34, 714 37, 711 39, 623 40, 498 36, 328 34, 668 35, 701 37, 604 40, 379 37, 826 10, 779 11, 595 10, 619 11,450 11, 380 11, 522 12, 219 7, 599 10, 033 11,961 12,261 12, 198 12, 684 13, 088 13, 579 9, 990 11, 558 12, 624 13, 365 13, 088 11, 346 11, 328 543 522 486 502 526 504 447 460 411 432 442 435 445 448 468 416 453 461 491 458 391 429 507 489 501 548 569 556 475 525 395 363 471 427 439 474 482 419 512 482 560 544 560 546 195. 8 158. 9 204.8 217.3 243. 5 192. 0 172.5 196. 5 126.0 122.7 131. 8 151. 9 177.2 182.7 200. 6 146, 1 159.7 201.2 213.4 202.4 150. 7 220.8 228.8 158. 1 125. 0 165.0 169.6 185. 8 140.2 129. 1 142.4 SS.8 88.2 92.5 115.7 134.5 13&5 150.6 107.6 119. 1 150.5 163. 3 152.6 113.9 167. 0 171.0 37.8 33.0 39. 8 47.6 57.7 51. 8 43.4 54. 1 37.2 34. 5 39.3 36.2 42. 7 44.2 50.0 38. 5 40. 7 50. 7 50. 1 49. 7 36. 8 53. 8 57. 7 2,320 2,286 2,341 2,404 2, 458 95. 1 93. 7 96.0 98. 5 100.8 39, 256 40, 031 38, 235 36, 358 36. 680 11, 685 11, 495 12, 595 12, 330 447 430 446 443 562 558 571 560 225. 8 219. 6 229.0 239.2 2 227. 4 168. 3 165.8 170.6 178.5 169.3 57.5 53. 8 58.4 60.7 58. 1 2 Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior. Association of American Eailroads, American Paper Institute, and Ward's Automotive Reports. NEW CONSTRUCTION Constructio a eontpacts2 Private Total new construction expenditures Period Resic ential Total Total i Commercial and industrial New housing units Other Federal, State, and local CommerTotal value cial and index, industrial (1967= floor space 100) (millions of square feet) Bil lions of doll ars 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973__ 1974 1975 * _ 93. 9 94 9 110. 0 124. 1 136. 0 135.5 130. 8 66.0 66.8 80. 1 93. 9 103. 4 97.1 89. 9 33.2 31.9 43.3 54.3 57.6 47.0 42.9 16.2 16.3 17.0 18.1 21.7 23.8 20.7 25.9 24.3 35. 1 44.9 47.9 37.3 31.3 16.6 18. 6 19.8 21.5 241 26.2 26.4 132. 3 128.9 125. 5 121. 0 121.7 126. 9 128.8 132. 1 137. 1 135.6 137. 8 139.6 139. 8 91. 2 89. 0 85.7 84.7 84.3 85.0 88. 1 90.6 92. 5 93.3 95.8 96.2 96.0 24. 1 23.7 20.9 20.3 20.3 19.4 19. 7 20. 2 20.3 20.0 20.4 19i9 18.9 28.8 27.4 26.9 26.8 27. 6 28. 9 30.6 32. 1 33.2 34.9 36.7 37.6 37.6 39. 6 38. 5 38. 0 37.6 38. 5 40.4 43.3 45.4 46. 0 46.5 47.5 48.5 48. 6 1 Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. 2 F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971 for floor space. 123. 1 145.4 165.3 179.5 169.7 163.1 Seasonally adjusted Seasonally / adjusted arinual rates 1975: Jan Feb. Mar Apr May _ June July Aug Sept Oct_ Nov_ Dec » 1976: Jan ...... m.7 28.0 2a 1 29.9 30.2 32.5 38.4 40.9 27.6 26.8 26.8 26.9 25.4 25. 1 25. 1 25.0 26.2 26.8 27.9 27.8 28. 6 41. 1 39.8 39.8 36. 3 37.4 41. 9 40.6 41.5 44.6 42.4 42. 0 43. 5 43.8 136 140 150 189 191 174 165 208 157 166 148 137 183 883 743 727 854 1,010 840 569 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 653 558 476 683 537 606 631 519 601 649 504 609 462 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] *Tew private housing uniibs Period 1969 1970 1971 1972___ 1973. 1974 1975 *__ 1975: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct. Nov Dec » 1976: Jan » 1 Units started, by type of striicture Total lunit 1, 466. 8 1, 433. 6 2, 052. 2 2, 356. 6 2, 045. 3 1, 337. 7 1, 160. 9 810.6 812.9 1, 151. 0 1, 309. 2 1, 132. 0 888. 1 892.4 1,005 953 986 982 1,085 1,080 1,207 1,264 1,304 1,431 1,381 1,291 1,221 748 722 763 774 853 874 916 979 966 1,093 1,048 966 958 Seasonally adjusted. » Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. 2-4 units 5 or more unite New priv ate homes Units authorized Units completed Homes sold Vacancy rate for Homes for rental sale at housing end of units period * (percent) 2 1, 323. 7 1, 351. 5 1, 924. 6 2, 218. 9 1, 819. 5 1, 074. 4 924.4 1, 399. 0 1, 418. 4 1, 706. 1 1, 971. 5 2, 013. 8 1, 691. 7 1, 292. 5 448 485 656 718 620 501 545 220 287 409 448 400 379 Seasonally adjusted arinual rates 41 689 216 183 701 48 677 46 177 837 45 163 912 53 179 150 949 56 1, 042 76 215 67 995 218 262 76 1,095 103 1,079 235 254 79 1, 085 249 1,028 76 204 59 1,138 1,535 1,320 1,305 1,211 1,276 1, 165 1,269 1,267 1, 291 1, 118 1,445 1,291 404 411 463 570 586 556 553 576 569 596 664 645 404 409 396 388 383 378 383 379 383 388 379 379 85.0 84.8 120.3 141.3 118.3 68. 1 63. 9 571.2 535.9 780.9 906.2 795.0 381.6 204.6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 5. 5 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.2 6. 1 6.3 6.2 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—TOTAL AND TRADE Business inventories declined $0.7 billion in December, largely because of a decline in stocks at general merchandise retail stores. Business sales increased 1.5 percent. Preliminary estimates of retail sales in January show a small decline. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 80 RETAIL INVENTORIES 70 300 60 TOTAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES RETAIL SALES 50 40 200 IlJU 30 TOTAL BUSINESS SALES RATIO1 1972 1973 1974 1975 1.80 -INVENTORY-SALES RATIO 1.70 100 1.40 1972 1973 1975 1974 1972 1976 1976 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total bijsiness 1 Iietail Who!esale 2 Sales j Period 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975* . 1974: Dec 1975: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Get Nov__ Decp 1976: Jan" Sales 2 104, 736 112, 315 124, 289 143, 823 163, 991 167, 972 162, 364 161, 973 163, 388 159, 176 162, 744 163, 349 165, 803 169, 251 172, 301 173, 353 175, 017 173, 826 176, 427 Inventoriess 175, 561 184, 711 197, 692 224, 401 271, 050 265, 326 271, 050 271, 148 270, 252 268, 449 266, 970 264, 335 263, 749 263, 345 264, 662 265, 087 266, 867 266, 064 265, 326 Invenbales * tories 3 CJ 1 2 Total 12 The term "business" also includes manufacturing (see page 21). Monthly average for year and total for month. 8 Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales lor month. 20 DurNonable durable goods goods Total stores stores Millions of doll ars, sea sonally '<adjusted 27, 290 31, 294 9, 524 21, 770 29, 695 34, 071 10, 985 23, 086 32, 817 37, 365 12, 472 24, 893 38, 302 41, 943 14, 190 27, 754 46, 564 44, 815 13, 943 30, 872 45, 671 48, 674 15, 056 33, 618 46, 564 45, 109 13, 554 31, 555 46, 197 46, 006 14, 126 31, 880 45, 951 46, 914 14, 664 32, 250 45, 527 45, 951 13, 378 32, 573 45, 303 46, 813 14, 165 32, 648 44, 558 48, 173 14, 703 33, 470 44, 850 48, 578 14, 965 33, 613 44, 653 49, 655 15, 432 34, 223 45, 501 49, 925 15, 506 34, 419 45, 625 49, 549 15, 440 34, 109 45, 715 50, 165 15, 775 34, 390 45, 554 50, 293 15, 763 34, 530 45, 671 51, 699 16, 813 34, 886 51, 531 16, 668 34, 863 20, 583 22, 327 24, 862 30, 400 37, 344 36, 575 37, 501 36, 675 37, 120 35, 590 35, 228 35, 442 36, 186 36, 567 37, 166 37, 604 37, 449 37, 018 37, 112 Inventorie*3 3 46, 626 52, 571 57, 156 65, 229 74, 082 73, 081 74, 082 73, 327 72, 308 71, 728 71, 483 70, 826 70, 840 71, 503 72, 578 73, 049 74, 642 73, 839 73, 081 Inventc ry-sales ratio4 DurNonTotal able durable busigoods goods ness 1 stores stores 20, 345 23, 864 26, 056 29, 593 34, 649 33, 592 34, 649 34, 267 32, 956 32, 460 32, 375 32, 086 31, 909 32, 270 33, 324 33, 471 33, 813 33, 712 33, 592 26, 281 28, 707 31, 100 35, 636 39, 433 39, 489 39, 433 39, 060 39, 352 39, 268 39, 108 38, 740 38, 931 39, 233 39? 254 39, 578 40, 829 40, 127 39, 489 1.64 1.61 1.53 1.46 1.50 1. 59 1. 67 1.67 1.65 1. 69 1. 64 1. 62 1. 59 1. 56 1. 54 1. 53 1.52 1. 53 1.50 Retail 1.47 1.47 1.46 1.46 1. 54 1.49 1.64 1.59 1. 54 1. 56 1. 53 1.47 1.46 1. 44 1.45 1.47 1.49 1. 47 1.41 Note.—Total (and manufacturing) sales revised beginning 1958. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND NEW ORDERS Manfacturers' total new orders rose 1.9 percent in January. Orders for durables were up 2.2 percent, with sharp rises in electrical machinery and fabricated metal products. Shipments also rose 1'.9 percent. The book value of inventories increased $206 million. BILUONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) RATIO SCALE) 200 INVENTORIES 160 120 80 DURABLE GOODS 40 NONDURABLE GOODS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 20 1972 RATIO 220 1973 1974 1975 1976 INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO 2.00 40 180 1.60 1.40 1.20 20 1972 1972 1976 1973 1 1 ijj 1 1 1 1 n t i l l IJU 1 1 1 1975 1974 1976 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS' SOURCE) DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Manufa cturers' shilpments 1 Manufac burers? in\rentories 2 Period Total 1970 52, 859 1971 55, 917 1972 62, 062 1973 71, 480 1974 81, 832 1975 » 82, 724 1974: Dee__ 79, 754 1975: Jan__. 79, 292 Feb.- 79, 354 Mar»_ 77, 635 Apr___ 80, 703 May»_ 79, 734 June._ 81, 039 July__ 83, 029 Aug_._ 85, 210 Sept.. 86, 200 Oct___ 87, 403 Nov__ 86, 515 Dec p_ 87, 616 1976: Jan »_ 89, 251 NonDurable durable goods goods 28, 229 29, 948 33, 489 38, 806 42, 744 41, 527 40, 816 40,305 40, 132 39, 250 41, 221 40? 494 40, 757 41, 354 42, 444 43, 192 43, 607 42, 352 43, 681 44, 763 24, 629 25, 969 28, 573 32, 674 39, 089 41, 197 38, 938 38, 987 39, 222 38, 385 39, 482 39, 240 40, 282 41, 675 42, 766 43, 008 43, 796 44, 163 43, 935 44, 488 Mailufacturc jrs' new o rders 1 Durab le goods Capital NonNongoods Total Total Durable Total durable durable goods indusgoods goods tries, nondefense Millie>ns of doll ars, seaso nally adj usted 101, 645 66, 768 34, 877 52, 146 27, 514 7,055 24, 632 102, 445 66, 050 36, 395 55, 754 29, 773 7,324 25, 981 107, 719 70, 218 37, 501 63, 015 34, 368 8, 487 28, 648 120, 870 79, 441 41,429 73, 992 41, 253 10, 310 32, 738 150, 404 97, 967 52, 437 83, 511 44, 502 11, 494 39, 009 146, 574 95, 754 50, 820 81, 351 40, 048 10, 261 41, 302 150, 404 97, 967 52, 437 77, 097 38, 485 10, 459 38, 612 151, 624 99, 124 52, 500 76, 115 37, 219 10, 077 38, 896 151, 993 100, 082 51,911 76, 694 37, 578 9, 970 39, 116 151, 194 99, 879 51, 315 74, 175 35, 785 9, 522 38, 390 150, 184 99, 803 50, 381 78, 008 38, 391 10, 309 39, 617 148, 951 99, 378 49, 573 78, 900 39, 575 10, 302 39, 325 148, 059 98, 796 49, 263 79, 789 39, 282 10, 138 40, 507 147, 189 98, 189 49, 000 83, 304 41, 435 10, 728 41, 869 146, 583 97, 199 49, 384 85, 137 42, 176 10, 392 42, 961 146, 413 96, 640 49, 773 85, 482 42, 256 10, 214 43, 226 146, 510 96, 215 50, 295 86, 336 42, 307 10, 689 44, 029 146, 671 95, 953 50, 718 86, 351 41, 988 10, 690 44, 363 146, 574 95, 754 50, 820 86, 754 42, 837 10, 156 43, 917 146,780 95, 670 51, 110 88, 434 43, 792 10, 242 44, 642 1 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales. 2 Book value, end of period, s4 End of period. For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly Manufacturers' unfilled3 orders 77, 093 75, 081 86,608 117, 034 137, 328 120, 659 137, 328 134, 156 131, 499 128, 043 125, 347 124, 513 123, 271 123, 545 123, 477 122, 761 121, 697 121, 530 120, 659 119, 848 Manufacturers' inventory— shipments4 ratio 1. 89 1.82 1.69 1.58 1. 64 1.80 1.89 1. 91 1. 92 1. 95 1. 86 1. 87 1. 83 1. 77 1. 72 1. 70 1. 68 1. 70 1.67 1. 64 shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. Note.—Total and durable shipments and orders revised beginning 1958. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS The merchandise trade (f.a.s.) account registered a deficit in January of $73 million, its first in a year. Exports were down 1.6 percent, while imports were up 7.6 percent, largely due to increases in petroleum and products. WtUONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 1969 1968 BJLLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 1971 1970 1973 1972 1974 1975 SOURCEi DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Merc: landise i mports Mereh andise exports Domesti c exports5 Gerleral imjK>rts 3 Period Total domestic and foreign Total i 2 exports Food, Crude bever- mate- ManufacTotal 2 ages, rials tured and to- and bacco fuels goods F.a.s. value 5 5,902 8,159 5, 811 8,045 1, 078 1,269 895 1, 317 3, 728 5, 294 1974 1975 1975: Feb. Mar Apr May_ June... July— Aug___ Sept___ Oct Nov Dec 1976: Jan_.__ 8, 159 8,933 •8, 755 8,685 8, 648 8, 222 8, 716 8,894 8, 979 9, 146 •9, 225 9, 409 9, 250 9, 103 8,045 8,808 1,269 1,400 1,480 1,375 1, 362 , 1, 174 1,215 1, 295 1,380 1,367 1,501 1,493 1,404 1, 510 1,317 1,266 1,310 1, 324 1, 197 1,217 1, 145 1,248 1, 299 1, 242 1, 199 I, 342 1,186 1, 223 5,294 8, 354 5,917 8,012 5,675 7,928 5, 605 7, 467 5,735 7,959 5,591 7, 266 5,991 7,104 6, 063 7,832 5, 983 7, 877 6, 063 8, 205 6, 267 8,170 6, 168 8,204 6, 296 8, 526 5, 971 9,176 5, 790 8, 416 1 Total excludes Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program. 28 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to Mnd. Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. Food, Crude bever- mate- Manu- Total facages, rials (c.i.f. 4 tured value) and to- and bacco fuels goods Mer snandise balance ExExports (f.a.s.) ports (f.a.s.) less less imimports (cus- ports toms (f.a.s.) value) • Exports (f.a.s.) less imports (c.i.f.) Customis value Monthly average *. 1973 1974 22 1976 770 892 F.a.s. 892 827 795 826 785 742 858 819 777 1, 020 855 867 825 872 1,120 3,750 2, 653 4, 684 value 5 2,672 4,602 2,716 4,257 2, 495 4,350 1,887 4, 395 2, 952 4, 161 2, 489 3, 894 1, 976 3, 990 2,706 4, 129 2, 715 4, 178 3,005 4, 060 2,912 4,289 2,896 4, 365 2, 852 4, 582 3,233 4, 714 6, 131 9, 000 112 -257 — 195 -229 -841 9, 000 8, 618 8, 501 8,039 8, 547 7, 817 7,652 8, 413 8, 479 8, 830 8,795 8, 830 9, 166 9, 880 -257 854 789 1, 130 615 869 1,524 1,001 1, 053 874 978 1, 132 667 -132 -195 921 827 1, 219 689 955 1,613 1, 062 1, 102 941 1,054 1, 206 724 — 73 -841 315 253 646 101 405 1,064 481 500 316 429 580 84 -776 * C.i.f. (cost, insurance, and freight) import value at first port &1 entry to the United States. Data for 1973 are estimates. « F.a.s. (free alongside ship) value basis: at U.S. port of exportation tor exports and at foreign port of exportation for imports. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. U.S. BALANCES ON GOODS, SERVICES, AND TRANSFERS The merchandise trade balance showed a surplus of over $2 billion in the fourth quarter. Both exports and imports advanced about 41A percent in value from their third quarter levels/ reflecting increased economic activity domestically and abroad. +5,015& £"--•-• H547 I BILLIONS Of DOLLARS 4 BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES 1969 1975 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] Me rchandise Period Exports 1969 1970 1971_. 1972 1973 1974 1975* Imports Milit a,ry trans actions 12 Net balance Direct expenditures Sales 36, 414 -35,807 607 — 4, 856 1,528 42, 469 -39,866 2, 603 -4,855 1, 501 43, 311 -45,579 -2,268 -4, 819 1,926 49, 388 -55,797 -6,409 -4, 784 1, 163 955 -4, 658 2,342 _ 71, 379 -70,424 98, 309 -103,586 — 5, 277 -5, 103 2,944 107, 250 -98,104 9, 146 22,464 -22,587 -123 -1, 166 II— 24,218 -25,677 -1,459 -1,324 III.. 25,034 -27,349 -2,315 -1,279 IV.. 26,593 -27,973 -1,380 -1,335 1974: I 1975: !._.. II_._ III.. IV * 27,129 -25,296 25, 659 -22,327 26, 644 -24,687 27, 818 -25, 794 663 678 766 837 1,833 — 1,303 954 3,332 — 1,209 804 1,957 — 1, 113 1,241 2,024 Net balance 66-981°—76 4 Private 3 U.S. Government Season*illy adju sted 4,014 -503 -769 -781 -646 2,745 -513 -807 3, 161 -872 -498 3,431 -513 -717 -721 -741 -349 -405 128 -572 1,093 -393 1,043 —480 1,095 2, 165 2,235 2,572 — 989 -843 — 794 Remittances, Balpenance sions, on curand other rent uniaclateral count trans-1 fers 1,020 -2, 976 -1,956 2,966 -3, 248 -281 -237 — 3,642 -3, 879 -5, 930-3, 779 -9, 710 4, 177 -3, 841 335 3,825 -7, 182 -3,357 Net Baltravel Other ance and on trans- servporta- ices,3 goods and tion net serv-l expendices itures -3, 328 3,471 156 - 1, 763 1,878 -112 -2, 023 2,220 -3,355 3,631 — 956 -2, 315 2,537 -2,893 5,659 -3,621 6,208 - 1, 888-3,024 2,803 -2, 317 8, 188 -3,009 -2, 862 3,222 -2, 158 13, 351 -3,229 -2, 692 3, 830 * Excludes military grants. Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. * Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct Investments in the United States are excluded from net investment income and included in other services, net. a Neti nvestment income 886 936 960 1,049 2,992 -2, 966 26 78 -1,865 -1,787 -235 -1,265 -1,500 989 -1,088 -99 3,178 -1, 175 5,015 -1,183 4,547 -1,047 2,003 3,832 3,500 NOTE.—Merchandise data for 1975 are as revised in January; other data to be revised in March. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 23 U.S. OVERALL BALANCES ON INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Net liquid private capital flows, returning to the trend of the first 2 quarters of 1975, registered an outflow of over $1 billion in the fourth quarter. This compares with an inflow of $4.5 billion registered in the third quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BALANCE ON CURRENT ACCOUNT AND LONG-TERM CAPITAL -10 1975 1966 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars] Non- AlloLong-ter m capital Balance liquid cations on flows5, net of current shortterm special Period account private U.S. and long- capital draw2 ing GovernPrivate term rights ment l capital flows, 2 (SDR) net -1,949 -44 -3, 949 -640 1969 -2, 045 -1,434 -3, 760 -482 1970 867 -2, 376 -4, 383— 10, 637 -2, 347 1971 717 1972___ _ _ _ — 1, 334 -69 — 11, 113 - 1, 542 710 -1,490 1973 177 -977 -4, 238 1, 118 -8,463 -10, 702-12,936 1974 1975 " Errors and omissions, net Liquid Net liquid- private capital ity balance flows, net 2 Changes in lia- Changes Official in U.S. reserve bilities official to trans- foreign actions official reserve balance agencies, asset?, net 4 net 3 -1,492 -6, 081 2, 739 - 1, 552 — 1, 187 8,820 7, 362 2,477 -476 — 3, 851 -5,988 -9,839 -9,698 -21, 965 -7, 788-29,753 27, 405 2,348 -1,884 — 13, 829 32 3,475 -10,354 10, 322 2,343 -5,308 5, 099 -2,436 -7, 651 209 9,831 - 1, 434 4,698 -18,940 10,543 -8,397 3, 324 -5, 361 -2, 037 2, 644 -607 83 -2, 157 -3, 574 — 1,458 -860 -474 -354 -563 -5, 570 -6, 529 -2, 3Q£ 1, 92?) -2, 199 -670 -2, 431 1,047 -97C ) _. . -1,357 1, 580 "~~~ JLj oot IV 9 1 2 Excludes liabilities to foreign official reserve agencies. Private foreigners exclude the IMF, but include other international and regional organizations. s Includes liabilities to foreign official agencies reported by U.S. Government and U.S. banks and U.S. liabilities to the IMF arising from*reversible gold sales to, and gold deposits with, the United States. * Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDR), convertible currencies, and the U.S. gold tranche position in the IMF. Minus sign indicates increase. «Includes increases (in millions) as follows: 1969, $67 due to revaluation of the German mark in Oct. 1969; 1971, $28 due to dollar value of foreign currencies revalued to reflect market exchange rates as of Dec. 31, 1971; 1972, $1,016 due to 24 4,014 1,135 -3,897 2,730 1,236 -7,598 3,438 -6, 636 2, 067 489 -2, 144 843 389 4,490 -37 -992 — 1, 071 16, 964 14, 487 12, 167 13, 151 14, 378 15, 883 16, 226 Unadjusted Seassonally ad justed 1974: III___ IV.__ 1975: !*__. !!*___ III*.. U.S. official reserve assets, net (end of5 period) 117 886 - 1, 003 15, 893 137 15, 883 -4, 868 4,731 -3, 198 3, 523 1,684 -1,655 4, 879 -4, 537 1,974 -2, 063 -325 16, 16, -342 16, 89 16, -29 256 242 291 226 change in par value ol the dollar on May 8,1972; and 1973, $1,436 due to change in par value of the dollar on Oct. 18,1973. Beginning July 1974, SDR and reserve position in the IMF based on new method of valuation. On a pre-July basis, reserve assets for Sept. 30, 1974 are $15,949 million, for Dec. 31,1974 $15,812 million, for Mar. 31, 1975 $16,105 million, for June 30,1975 $16,134 million, for Sept. 30,1975 $16,455 million, and for Dec. 31, 1975 $16,366 million. *Overall balances revised; other data to be revised In March. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. PRICES WHOLESALE PRICES In January, the wholesale price index rose 0.4 percent (unchanged after seasonal adjustment). Prices of farm products and processed foods and feeds dropped 0.8 percent (1.8 percent seasonally adjusted). Industrial commodity prices were up 0.7 percent (0.4 percent seasonally adjusted). INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 200 200 120 120 100 100 1976 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [1967 = 100] Period All commodities 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 102.5 106. 5 110. 4 113.9 119. 1 134. 7 160. 1 174.9 1975: Jan Feb 171.8 171. 3 170.4 172. 1 173. 2 173. 7 175. 7 176.7 177. 7 178.9 178.2 178.7 179. 4 Mar Apr May_ _.. June July Aug___ __ Sept. - _ _ Oct Nov__ _ Dec 1976: Jan Farm products Indusand trial processed commodfoods ities and feeds 102. 4 108. 0 111. 7 113. 8 122. 4 159. 1 177. 4 184. 2 Unadjusted 183.8 179. 5 174.9 178.8 181. 2 182. 3 188. 2 189. 0 190.4 190. 5 186. 1 186. 0 184. 6 Special gToupings Farm products Processed foods and feeds 102. 5 106. 0 110.0 114. 0 117. 9 125.9 153.8 171.5 102. 5 109. 1 111. 0 112.9 125. 0 176. 3 187. 7 186. 7 102. 2 107.3 112. 1 114. 3 120. 8 148. 1 170. 9 182. 6 167. 5 168.4 168. 9 169. 7 170. 3 170. 7 171. 2 172. 2 173. 1 174. 7 175. 4 176.1 177.3 177.9 170.2 168. 1 179. 3 184.5 181. 7 193. 7 190. 7 198. 9 203. 2 198. 0 196.4 190.9 185. 3 180. 3 175. 7 181. 9 180. 3 178. 1 183. 9 184. 5 186.3 187. 7 186.5 181. 0 178.3 1 Excludes crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs, plant and animal fibers, oilseeds, and leaf tobacco. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Crude mate-1 rials Inter- Producmediate er finmate-2 ished goods rials 102. 0 102. 6 103. 5 110. 6 106. 1 106. 9 110. 0 111. 9 118.8 122. 7 114. 3 116. 6 131. 1 119. 5 118. 9 155.2 123. 5 128. 1 141. 0 219. 1 159. 5 162. 5 178. 6 225. 1 Seas onally ad; usted 176. 1 157. 2 219.6 176. 1 218. 8 158. 1 176. 4 217. 7 159. 7 176. 8 220. 1 160. 7 224. 2 176. 5 161. 2 225.4 161. 7 176. 7 223.4 177. 6 162.4 162. 8 226. 5 178.8 232.7 179. 5 164. 0 181. 8 231.1 166. 7 227.9 183. 1 167. 7 233.8 184. 3 168. 0 235.4 169. 3 184.8 Consunler finishe d goods exceluding fo Dds Nondurable Total Durable 102. 1 104.6 107. 7 111. 2 113.5 118.6 138.6 153. 1 102. 2 104. 0 107. 0 110. 9 113. 2 115. 8 126. 3 138. 2 102. 2 105. 0 108. 3 111. 3 113. 6 120. 5 146. 8 163. 0 149. 5 149.7 150. 0 150. 3 150. 8 151. 5 152. 4 153. 9 155. 4 157. 3 158. 1 158. 6 159. 1 135.2 135.8 136. 9 136. 9 136. 9 137. 3 137.4 137. 7 139. 0 141. 5 141. 9 141. 8 142. 2 158. 5 159. 0 158. 9 159. 3 160. 1 161. 0 162. 5 164. 6 166. 1 167. 5 168. 7 169.9 169.8 2 Includes supplies and components; excludes intermediate materials for food manufacturing and manufactured animal feeds. 25 CONSUMER PRICES In January, the consumer price index rose 0.2 percent (0.4 percent seasonally adjusted). Food prices rose 0.1 percent (declined 0.2 percent seasonally adjusted). Nonfood commodity prices declined 0.3 percent (rose 0.2 percent seasonally adjusted) and services prices rose 1.0 percent (1.1 percent seasonally adjusted). INDEX, 1967-100 (RATIO SCM4 INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALQ 100 1968 1970 1969 1971 1972 1973 1975 1974 1976 COUNCIL OF iCONOWC ADVISERS SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [1967=100] Period 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 AU items Food Commodities less food 104.2 109.8 116.3 121. 3 125.3 133. 1 147. 7 161.2 103.6 108.9 114.9 118.4 123.5 141.4 161.7 175.4 103.7 108. 1 112. 5 116.8 119.4 123.5 136.6 149* 1 ComDaodities less food Food Services commodities 105.2 112.5 121.6 128.4 133.3 139. 1 152. 1 166.6 103.7 108.4 113.5 117.4 120.9 129.9 145. 5 158.4 All 103.6 108.9 114.9 118.4 123. 5 141.4 161. 7 175.4 Food at home Food away from home 103.2 108.2 113.7 116.4 121.6 141.4 162.4 175.8 105.2 111.6 119.9 126. 1 131. 1 141.4 159.4 174.3 All 103.7 108. 1 112. 5 116.8 119.4 123.5 136.6 149. 1 Services Durable Nondurable 103. 1 107. 0 111.8 116. 5 118. 9 121. 9 130.6 145. 5 104. 1 108.8 113. 1 117. 0 119.8 124.8 140.9 151. 7 105.2 112.5 121. & 128.4 133. a 139. 1 152. 1 166. & Seasonal y adjust ed Unac [justed 1975: Jan Feb Mar Apr May_-_ June July___ Aug Sept~__ Oct Nov Dec 156. 1 157.2 157. 8 158. 6 159. 3 160.6 162. 3 162.8 163. 6 164. 6 165. 6 166.3 170.9 171.6 171. 3 171. 2 171.8 174.4 178.6 178. 1 177.8 179.0 179.8 180.7 143.9 144.9 146.0 147. 2 148. 1 148.9 149.9 150. 7 151.4 152. 2 152.6 152.8 161. 3 162.6 163.2 164. 1 164. 5 165. 7 166.6 167.4 169. 1 170. 1 172.0 173. 1 154.0 154. 6 155.0 155. 6 156.5 157. 6 159. 6 160. 1 160.6 161. 5 162. 2 162.9 171. 3 171. 1 170.6 171. 0 172.5 174.6 177.8 177. 5 178.0 179.6 180.6 181.6 171.9 171. 1 170. 3 170.6 172. 3 174. 9 178. 6 178. 1 178.4 180.2 181.2 182.1 169.0 170.9 171.8 172.4 173. 1 173. 4 174. 5 175.3 176.4 177.5 178.6 179.5 144.7 145. 7 146. 6 147. 4 147. 9 148.5 149.8 150.7 151. 2 151. 7 152.2 152.8 140.0 141. 6 143. 2 144. 4 144.8 145. 4 14.6. 2 147. 0 147.6 148. 1 148. 5 149.2 148. 1 148. 7 148. 9 149.5 150.0 150.7 152.4 153. 4 153. 7 154.4 154.8 155.3 161. 1 162. 4 163. S 164. a 164.9 166. 0 166.9 167.6 169. 0 170. 0 171. 7 172.8 1976: Jan 166.7 180.8 152. 3 174.9 163. 1 181.2 181.4 180.9 153. 1 149.7 155.6 174.7 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 26 CHANGES IN WHOLESALE PRICES Perceiit changej from pre ceding perlod; seasoilaUy adju*sted1 Period An commodities Farm products 1.0 2.8 4.8 2.2 4.0 6.5 15.4 20.9 4.2 -2.7 4,4 8.4 -4.7 8.1 1975: Jan— Feb.. MarApr— MayJune. July. Aug.. Sept. Oct.. Nov. Dec- —.2 -.8 -.5 1. 5 .4 —.1 1.2 .8 .6 1.8 .0 — .4 -4.4 -4. 3 -1.2 1976: Jan— .0 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 _ _ 18.7 36. 1 -1. 9 5.5 Industrial commodities Processed foods and feeds -1.2 3.0 6.8 .8 4.7 11.6 20.3 20.9 -3.8 — 1. 5 6.6 -1. 5 4. 3 2.2 -2.6 -.8 .5 .4 .1 .1 .2 .4 .4 .6 .7 1.2 .6 .6 -2.8 -1.5 .4 2. 9 Farm products Processed foods and feeds -28.0 -40.8 -33.4 3.2 38.1 36.5 36.2 14. 1 43.6 21. 1 16.2 -4.9 0.7 -25. 1 -24. 0 -7.1 .0 5. 6 4. 5 9.6 19.7 8. 5 4.4 -10.9 7. 1 5.4 4.2 2.4 1.5 2.6 4. 0 6. 0 7.3 10.7 10.6 10.1 -1.7 -22.1 -18.6 as All commodities Industrial commodities Farm products Processed foods and feeds 14.4 4. 5 3.5 .8 -1.3 .3 3.2 6.6 9. 1 9.6 8.9 8.3 -3.2 -17.0 -16.9 -13.8 -9.6 -4.7 18. 6 25. 5 40.0 28.4 15.2 16.8 23.3 2.7 -1.5 -3.3 -13.4 -10.4 -1. 5 47 12.4 6.5 7.0 &3 14. 0 9.5 7.6 4.7 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.7 5. 0 7.3 8.2 8.7 5.6 -2.9 -6.0 8.6 All commodities Industrial commodities 1.9 2. 7 3.9 3.6 3.2 3.6 10. 7 25. 6 6.0 - 1. 5 -2.7 . -2.6 3.5 -. 9 -1.2 3. 3 .3 1. 0 .8 -.6 -2.9 6.7 Percent c1 lange f re m 3 mont as earlier; Percent (jhange from 6 mont is earlier; seasonsally adju sted annulal rates season ally adjusted annua 1 rates 0.9 -7.7 -6.3 .6 5.5 7.2 6. 0 7.7 11. 1 13.5 10.1 5.6 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. »Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted). CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES Percerit change3 from pre ceding period; seasoilally adju sted1 Period All items Food Commodities less food Services Percent c aange frc>m 3 mont hs earlier; Percent c lange frc m 6 mont [is earlier; seasonsilly adjussted annu al rates season!illy adju.sted annu al rates All items Food Commodities less food Services All items Food Commodities less food Services __ 3.0 4.7 6. 1 5. 5 3.4 3.4 8.8 12.2 7. 0 1.2 4.3 7.2 2. 2 4.3 4.7 20. 1 12.2 6. 5 3.1 3.7 4. 5 4.8 2.3 2.5 5. 0 13.2 6. 2 4.0 6. 1 7.4 8.2 4. 1 3.6 6.2 11.3 8. 1 1975: Jan- _ _ Feb-__ Mar.._ Apr May__ June. July___ Aug.- _ Sept.— Oct-__ Nov.— Dec— _ .7 .5 .4 .5 .5 .7 1.0 .4 .4 .6 .6 .5 5 — 1 3 2 9 12 18 — 2 3 9 6 6 6 7 6 5 3 4 9 6 3 3 3 4 9 8 6 6 4 7 5 4 8 6 10 6 10. 0 8. 3 6.6 5. 7 5.7 7.0 9. 1 8.5 7.4 5.8 6.8 7.3 11. 2 5.8 .5 -.7 3.3 9.7 16.9 12. 1 8.0 4, 1 7.2 8.3 8.7 8. 1 8.0 7.7 6.2 5.3 6.7 7.8 7,5 5. 2 4. 0 4.3 10.3 10.5 9.3 8.2 6.3 6.8 6.5 6.7 7.4 7.6 10. 2 9.3 12.0 10. 3 8.6 7.9 7. 0 6,8 7.4 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.7 7.4 14. 9 11.3 6. 6 5. 1 4.6 5.0 7.7 7.6 8.9 10.3 9.6 11.2 10.8 9.9 9. 2 8.4 8.0 7.3 6.5 7. 1 7. 1 a2 10.9 9.4 8.7 8. 2 7. 1 6. 6 7.2 7.0 6.4 5.9 5.9 5.9 1976: Jan-. . .4 -.2 .2 1.1 6.5 3.6 3.7 11.5 6.1 3.9 4.5 9.6 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975. * Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted). Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. a4 a4 27 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers increased % percent during the month ended February 1 5. Contributing most to the increase were higher prices for wheat, cattle, calves, hogs, and potatoes. Partially offsetting were lower prices for milk, lettuce, eggs, celery, and tomatoes. Prices paid were unchanged. Both the actual and adjusted parity ratios also were unchanged. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) i 220 200 PRICES RECEIVED (ALL FARM PRODUCTS) PRICES PAID (ALL ITEMS, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES) 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1976 1975 J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES, ON 1910-14=100 BASE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCEi DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Prices ireceived by 1farmers Period 1968 1969 1970_ 1971 1972 ___ _ 1973 1974 1975 1975: Jan 15. Feb 15__ Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15. June 15 July 15 _ Aug 15 Sept 15 __ . _ Oct Nov Dec 1976: Jan Feb 15 15 15 15 15— 1 _ All farm products 103 108 110 112 126 172 184 181 172 168 165 170 178 182 187 187 194 193 185 187 186 187 Crops Prices paid by far mers All items, Livestock interest, Family Producand living tion taxes, and products wage rates items items Index, 1 967=100 101 97 100 107 116 164 214 194 201 192 185 188 189 192 199 201 202 199 188 188 188 190 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by fanners to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates on 1910-14=100 base. 28 104 117 118 116 134 179 164 172 153 151 152 157 171 176 180 179 188 190 184 187 185 185 104 109 114 120 126 145 169 185 181 180 179 182 184 185 186 187 189 189 189 189 193 193 104 109 114 119 124 138 161 177 173 175 173 173 175 176 178 179 180 180 182 182 183 183 102 106 110 115 122 146 172 188 182 180 179 185 187 190 190 192 194 192 192 192 193 194 Parity ratio 1 Actual 73 74 72 70 74 88 81 73 71 69 69 69 72 73 75 74 76 76 73 73 72 72 Adjusted2 79 80 77 74 79 91 81 73 72 70 69 70 73 74 75 75 77 77 73 74 72 72 2 The adjusted parity ratio reflects Government payments made directly to fanners. Source: Department of Agriculture. MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK Mi was essentially unchanged from November to January. Growth in M2 on the other hand picked up in January. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 800 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) ] 800 AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES 700 300 200 I I I I I I I I I I I—I I I I I I I I I IL, M ' I I I I I I I I 1968 1969 1 1970 I I I ' I ! I II I I 1971 II I f I ! I I.I I I—I I I,! I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I. I I T I I 1 II I I I i I I I I ! ! I I I I 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 SOURCE-. BOARB OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTfM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Over all meas ures * Deposi ts at co]mmercia banks Period Mj 1971:Dec__ 1972: Dec _ _ 1973: Dec__ 1974: Dec__ 1975: Dec__ 1975: Jam _ _ Fcsb__ Mar__ Apr. . May _ June _ Jul r __ Aug.Sept__ Oct__ N0v__ Dec__ [976: Jan___ 233. 8 255. 3 270.5 283. 1 295. 0 281. 9 281. 9 284, 1 284. 9 287. 6 291. 0 291. 9 293. 2 293. 6 293. 4 295. 7 295. 0 295. 5 M2 471. 7 525. 3 571.4 612. 4 663. 3 614. 5 618. 2 623. 0 626. 7 633. 7 642. 4 647. 5 650. 6 652. 9 655. 7 661. 6 663. 3 669. 1 M3 745. 1 844. 9 919. 5 981. 6 1,091.8 986. 7 994. 0 1,003.7 1,012.7 1,025.3 1,040.2 1,051.6 1,060.6 1,068.1 1,075.6 1,086.0 1,091.8 1,102.4 Currency 52.6 56. 9 61. 5 67. 8 73. 7 68.2 68. 7 69. 4 69. 5 70. 2 71. 0 71.3 71. 9 72. 0 72. 6 73.4 73.7 74.2 Tim e and savings at Total Large CD's Other 271. 2 313. 6 364, 4 419. 1 451. 2 425. 4 428. 3 428. 7 430. 1 431. 2 435. 5 437. 6 436. 2 438. 3 443. 2 447. 6 451. 2 452. 9 33. 3 43. 6 63.5 89. 8 82. 9 92. 7 92. 1 89.8 88.4 85. 1 84. 1 82. 1 78. 8 79. 1 80. 9 81. 8 82. 9 79.2 237. 8 270.0 300. 9 329.3 368. 3 332.6 336. 2 339. 0 341. 8 346. 1 351. 4 355. 5 357. 4 359. 2 362. 3 365. 9 368. 3 373. 7 273.4 319.6 348.0 369. 2 428.5 372.2 375. 9 380. 7 386. 0 391. 6 397.8 404. 1 410. 0 415. 2 420. 0 424.4 428.5 433.3 Demand 181.3 198. 4 209. 0 215. 3 221. 3 213. 7 213.2 214.7 215. 4 217.4 220. 0 220. 6 221. 3 221. 6 220. 8 222. 3 221. 3 221. 3 Deposits nonbank thrift institutions 1 Mi is cmMBcy plus demand deposits; M2 is MI plus time deposits at commercial banks otiaer than large certificates of deposit (CD's); and MS is M2 plus deposits at nonbank thrift institutions. Per cent chaiige 2 Com p ontents anc related 11 ;ems U.S. Government demand deposits (unadjust- i MR 2 ed) 6.9 7.4 6.3 4.9 4.2 4. 0 3. 3 o. 8 4. 0 4. 1 4.2 3.4 2. 7 3. 9 3. 4 3. 5 4. 2 3.9 6. 5 9.2 6. 0 4.7 4.2 2. 2 1. 7 3. 1 2. 7 3. 6 5. 7 7.2 8.2 6. 8 6. 1 5. 7 2. 8 2. 5 11.4 11.4 8. 8 7.2 8.3 5.6 5.9 6. 9 6. 5 7.7 10. 0 11.0 10.8 9. 8 9. 5 9. 0 6.6 6.8 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 PRIVATE ASSET HOLDIMGS - INVESTORS Private liquid asset holdings rose 0.6 percent in January. From January 1975 to January 1976 the rise was 9.7 percent BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 TOTAL LIQUID ASSETS CURRENCY AND DEPOSITS 600 600 400 i n m h n n m u T i f t n m n I n i n | n in I t i n » h i in I M n » 1968 1 1969 1 1970 1971 1972 t u i i l n n i m n l n n i M i i i h n n M i n l i i n i l 400 1973 1974 1975 1976 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE! BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Cum;ncy- and <deposits Period 1969: 1970: 1971: 1972: 1973: 1974: 1975: Dec Dec Dec_ Dec Dec Dec Dec 1974: Dec 1975: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug... Sept__. Oct___ Nov Dec _ 1976: Jan*_ Total liquid assets U.S. G overnment se curities 46. 1 49. 1 52.6 56.9 61. 5 67. 8 73. 7 144.8 151.4 160. 3 174.9 180. 9 182. 1 189.0 177.3 199.3 233.7 264.7 294.9 321.9 360. 3 214.9 232. 7 273.4 319. 6 348.0 369.2 428.6 51.7 52. 0 54. 3 57. 6 60.4 63,3 67.3 Short term marketable securities 64.0 52. 6 37.8 38.3 50. 3 57. 8 68. 3 67.8 182. 1 321. 9 369. 2 63.3 1, 191. 8 945. 7 1, 199. 8 952.9 : 962.4 1, 207. 7 1, 216. 2 971.4 1, 225. 1 983.9 999.2 1, 239. 4 1, 251. 4 1,011. 1 1, 258. 6 1, 020. 3 _ _ . 1, 264. 4 1, 027. 4 1, 275. 5 1,035.2 1, 291. 6 1, 046. 0 1, 300. 2 1, 051. 5 68.2 68. 7 69.4 69.5 70.2 71.0 71. 3 71.9 72.0 72.6 73.4 73.7 180.7 180. 6 182.0 183.3 185.2 187. 8 188. 7 189.6 189.7 188.9 190.5 189.0 324.6 327.7 330. 3 332.6 336.9 342.6 347.0 348. 8 350. 5 353.8 357. 6 360.3 372. 2 375.9 380.7 386. 0 391. 6 397.8 404. 1 410.0 415.2 420.0 424.4 428. 6 1, 307. 7 1, 061. 9 74.2 188. 4 366.1 433.2 Total 583. 1 737.0 632.5 784.8 _.. 866.3 719. 9 979.2 816.1 1, 092. 3 885.4 1, 183. 4 940. 9 1, 300. 2 1, 051. 5 1, 183. 4 Note.—Series revised beginning 1964. 30 Time d eposits 940. 9 Currency Demand deposits Commercial banks Nonbank Savings thrift bonds institutions Negotiable certificates of deposit 9.0 Commercial paper 29. 1 24,7 23.0 30.2 39. 7 57.9 79.6 72.6 27.5 38.3 41. 8 40.5 57.8 79. 6 41.8 63. 6 63.9 64.2 64.5 64.8 65. 1 65. 6 65. 9 66. 2 66. 6 67. 0 67. 3 58.4 58.0 57.2 57.2 57. 1 58.2 60.8 62.2 61.0 62.9 67.0 68. 3 82. 5 82.2 79.9 78.7 75. 3 73.7 71.9 69. 1 69.3 70. 6 71.4 72. 6 41.7 42.8 44.0 44.4 43.9 43.0 42. 1 41. 1 40.4 40.2 40. 4 40. 5 67.6 68. 7 69.0 40. 5 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; 240 BANK LOANS, INVESTMENTS, DEBITS, AND RESERVES Bank loans and investments increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the 3-month period ending January 1976. Commercial and industrial loans grew very little while investments grew rapidly at a rate of 7.8 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 60 60 40 40 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE; BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Bank debits outside New York Investrnents L<oans Total City (232 loans centers) , Total, Comand U.S. Gov- Other seasonally mercial excludinvesternment securi- adjusted interindusments ing•^ __ annuall securities i_ and4.trial .i ties banK rates Billions of dollars All commercial banks (seas(mally adjusibed data) End of period 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975* 1975: Jan Feb Mar Apr Mav June July 9 Aug 9 Sept ^ Oct * Nov ^ Dec * 1976: Jan * 435. 5 484. 8 556.4 630. 3 5 687. 1 717.2 690.0 692. 6 697.0 699. 1 702. 0 705. 0 706. 4 710.4 711. 6 _ 715. 0 721.3 717.2 720. 5 291. 7 320. 3 377. 8 447.3 498.2 494.7 501.3 498.9 498.3 495.0 492.8 489. 9 489.6 490.7 490.4 494 1 498.0 494 7 495.4 110. 0 115. 9 129.7 155.8 182.6 177.7 184 1 182. 5 180. 9 180.5 179. 1 176.3 177.6 177.5 176.4 177. 9 178.9 177. 7 178. 1 57. 9 60. 1 61.9 52.8 48.8 77.9 48.7 53.2 58. 5 640 68. 2 72.4 73.4 75. 6 77. 1 75. 1 76. 3 77.9 80.2 1 Debits during period to demand deposit accounts except interbank and U.S Government. «Averages of dally figures. Annual data are for December. • Beginning November 1972, adjusted to include certain reserve deficiencies ©n which penalties could be waived for a transition period in connection with adaption to Regulation J. Transition period ended after June 1974. * Beginning April 1973, includes seasonal borrowings. 1976 1975 85. 9 104 4 116.7 130.2 140. 1 144 6 140.0 140. 5 140. 2 140. 1 141, 0 142. 7 143.4 144.1 144 1 145. 8 147.0 144 6 144 9 5,717 6,443 7,630 9, 682 11, 678 12, 182 11, 696 12, 032 11, 939 11, 895 11, 913 11, 891 12, 118 12, 641 12, 597 12, 336 12, 538 12, 594 12, 335 AJl membe r banks 2 Borrowings at Total 3 Excess 3 Federal Free reserves reserves Reserve reserves *• Banks 4 ]MEillions o : dollars 29, 265 31, 329 31, 353 35, 068 36, 941 34, 968 37, 492 35, 565 34, 779 35, 134 34, 492 34, 976 34, 655 34, 482 34, 646 34, 567 34, 571 34, 968 35, 588 272 165 219 262 339 240 -64 232 266 120 -1 548 — 32 217 199 156 290 240 227 321 107 -49 58 1,049 1,298 -1,036 703 129 390 147 106 110 60 271 261 211 396 191 61 129 79 -830 -364 111 -454 85 160 10 -61 277 -29a 6 -197 -35 229 111 148 5 Beginning June 1974, a bank merger increased total loans and investments by $0.6 billion, and beginning November 1974, liquidation of a large bank reduced total loans and investments by $1.5 billion. For effect on other categories, see Federal Reserve Bulletin. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System. 31 SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses External Period nr/vf oi Credi k market runds Inter1 nal Total Tr»+«l 1966__ 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1974: I II III IV 1975:1 II III - 97.3 94. 0 113.6 118.1 103.7 120.4 148.0 176.2 183. 3 196. 3 210. 3 176.4 150. 1 90. 1 129.8 150. 3 61.2 61.5 61.7 60.7 59.4 68.0 78.7 84.6 81. 5 85. 3 80. 5 75. 3 84. 8 90. 1 98.2 109.7 15. 7 21.6 18.4 25.3 29.6 31. 5 38. 9 39.5 46. 8 55.3 67.2 77.1 75.4 91.6 72. 8 68. 7 27.2 29.3 29.8 36. 1 32. 5 51. 9 57.4 44.2 52. 5 69.3 91.6 101.8 111. 0 129. 8 101. 1 65. 3 .0 31. 6 40.6 Short-3 term Longterm 2 mo 30. 7 41.8 39.3 34. 5 36.3 37. 5 43.1 25. 2 39. 3 52.0 52. 9 39.6 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation adjustment) and capital consumption allowances. 2 Stocks, bonds, and mortgages. 9.6 8.0 13.2 18.9 8.8 5.0 16.0 32.7 40.8 38.0 48.7 47.4 29.4 -24.9 -23. 7 -9.7 Total Other 10.9 3.0 20.4 18. 5 4.8 5.7 14.0 24. 5 24. 7 35.6 38.2 28. 3 — 3. 4 -27. 1 2.4 10.7 89. 1 88.2 104.0 112. 1 97.0 110.3 133.3 162.4 169.7 189. 7 195. 1 160.2 133. 5 76.1 114. 5 133.7 Purchase of physical assets 4 76.5 71.4 75. 0 83. 7 84. 0 87.2 102.5 121. 5 125.9 124.3 127. 8 122.4 129. 2 95. 1 77. 8 102. 5 Increase in financial assets 12. 6 16.8 29.0 28.4 12.9 23. 1 30.8 40. 9 43. 8 65.4 67. 3 37. 8 4. 3 -19. 0 36.7 31.2 Discrepancy (sources less uses) 8.2 5. 8 9. 6 6.0 6.7 10. 2 14.8 13.8 13.6 6.7 15. 3 16. 2 16. 6 14. 0 15. 3 16.5 3 Bank loans, commercial paper, finance company loans, bankers* acceptances, and Government loans. * Plant and equipment, residential structures, and inventory investment. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars] Cur rent liab ilities Cu rrent assc5tS Ad- End of period ReceivCash U.S. «_. a_i_i bles on Govfrom hand ernTotal U.S. and ment Govin securiernbanks * ties 2 ment 3 1966 364.0 386. 2 1967 426. 5 1968 473.6 1969 492. 3 1970 1971 '529. 6 1972 1573. 5 1973 643. 3 712. 2 1974 1974: !____ 666. 2 !!___ 685.4 III__ 708. 6 IV__ 712. 2 1975: I 698. 4 i II__. 703. 2 ! III.. 716. 5 j 1 2 Includes Includes 3 41.9 45.5 48.2 47.9 50.2 53. 3 57. 5 61.6 62.7 59.4 58. 8 60. 3 62. 7 60. 6 63. 7 65.6 13.0 10. 3 11. 5 10. 6 7.7 11.0 9.3 11.0 11.7 ia-i 10. 7 11. 0 11. 7 12. 1 12.7 14.3 4.5 5. 1 5. 1 4. 8 4. 2 3. 5 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.4 3. 5 3. 5 3. 2 3.3 3.3 Notes and accounts receivable 142. 1 150. 2 168. 8 192. 2 201. 9 217. 6 240.0 266. 1 289. 7 276. 2 289. 8 295. 5 289.7 281. 9 284.8 294.7 Other Incurvenrent tories assets 4 Total 142. 8 153. 1 166. 0 186. 4 193. 3 200. 4 215. 2 246. 7 288.0 258. 4 269. 2 282. 1 288.0 285.2 281. 4 279. 6 199. 4 211. 3 244. 1 287. 8 304. 9 326. 0 352. 2 401. 0 450. 6 416. 0 431. 5 449. 1 450. 6 438. 0 434. 2 444. 7 time certificates of deposit. Federal agency issues. Receivables from and payables to the U.S. Government do not include amounts offset against each other on corporations' books or amounts arising from 32 19. 7 22. 0 26.9 31. 6 35. 0 43. 8 48. 1 54. 4 56. 6 56. 9 53. 5 56. 1 56.6 55. 4 57.3 59. 0 vances and Notes and preacpayments, counts U.S. payable Govern- 3 ment Fed_„_! eral income tax liabilities Other current liabilities 133. 1 141. 3 162. 4 191. 9 204. 7 215. 6 230. 4 261. 6 287. 5 266. 5 278. 5 287. 0 287. 5 271. 2 270. 1 273.4 17. 4 13. 2 14.3 12. 6 10. 0 13. 1 15. 1 18. 1 23. 2 20. 6 19. 0 22.7 23. 2 21. 8 17. 7 44. 5 51. 0 61. 0 76. 0 83. 6 92. 4 102. 6 117. 0 134. 8 124. 4 129. 1 134. 3 134. 8 139. 8 140. 6 145.6 4. 4 5. 8 6. 4 7. 3 6. 6 4. 9 4. 0 4.3 5. 2 4. 5 4.7 5. 1 5. 2 5.3 5. 8 6.2 ia 4 Net working capital 164.6 174. 9 182.4 185. 7 187.4 203. 6 221. 3 242. 3 261. 5 250. 2 253. 9 259. 5 261. 5 260. 4 269. 0 271. 8 subcontracting which are not directly due from or to the 17.8. Government. Wherever possible, adjustments have been made to include "P.3. Government advances offset against inventories on corporations' books. 4 Includes marketable investments (other than Government securities and time certificates of deposit) as well as sundry current assets. Source: Securities and Exchange Commission. BOND YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES After declining for several months, short-term interest rates increased slightly in early February. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM CORPORATE Aaa BONDS (MOODY'S) COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Period 1970 1971 1972. 1973 1974_ 1975 1975: Mar Apr May. _ _ _ June July Aug Sept • Get _. Nov Dec 1976: Jan Feb_____ Week ended: 1976: Jan 23. __ 30___ Feb 6 _ _ _ 13___ 20___ 27__ Mar 5 _ _ _ [Percent per annum] High-grade U.S. Gov<^rnment secu rity yields municipal 3-month bonds 3-5 year Taxable 2 Treasury 3 (Standard4& issues bonds bills i Poor's) 6. 458 6. 51 7.37 6. 59 4. 348 5.70 5.77 5.74 4.071 5.27 5.85 5. 63 7.041 5. 18 6.92 6. 30 7. 886 6. 09 7. 81 6. 99 5. 838 6. 89 7.55 6. 98 5. 544 6. 61 7. 00 6. 73 5. 694 6.83 7.76 7.03 5. 315 6.81 7. 49 6. 99 5. 193 6. 76 7. 26 6. 86 6. 164 6. 94 7. 72 6. 89 7.02 6. 463 8. 12 7.06 7.23 6. 383 8.22 7.29 6.081 7. 22 7.80 7. 29 7. 21 5.468 7.51 7. 21 5. 504 7.06 7. 50 7. 17 4. 961 6.80 7. 18 6.94 4. 852 6. 91 6.92 7. 18 4, 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 6 5. 1 Rate on new issues within period. 2 Selected note and bond issues. 3 783 763 811 872 854 870 258 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 18 16 16 17 20 18 April 1953 to date, bonds due or callable 10 years and after. * Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 5 Data for first of the month, based on the maximum permissible interest rate 851 percent beginning Jan. 5,1976) and 30-year mortgages paid in 15 years. 6. 74 6. 78 6. 85 6. 91 6. 93 6. 93 6.93 6. 94 6.93 6. 96 6. 94 6.88 Corpora be bonds (Moo dy's) Aaa Baa 8. 04 7. 39 7. 21 7.44 8. 57 8. 83 8.67 8.95 8. 90 8.77 8.84 8. 95 8.95 8.86 8.78 8. 79 8. 60 8.55 9. 11 8.56 8. 16 8.24 9. 50 10. 39 10.29 10.34 10. 46 10.40 10.33 10.35 10.38 10.37 10.33 10. 35 10.24 10. 10 8.58 8.57 8. 56 10.20 10. 16 10. 14 10. 12 10. 09 10. 04 a 57 8. 56 8. 51 Prime FHA commercial new home paper, mortgage 4-6 yields 5 months 7. 72 9. 05 5. 11 7.78 4. 69 7. 53 8. 15 8. 08 9.87 a 47 6. 33 9.22 6. 06 8. 84 6.15 8. 69 5. 82 5. 79 9. 16 6.44 9.06 6.70 9. 13 6.86 9. 32 6.48 9.74 5.91 9. 53 5. 97 9.41 5.27 9.32 5. 23 9. 06 5. 23 5. 13 5. 15 5. 25 5. 28 5. 25 6 Not charted. Sources: Department of Housing and Urban Development, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 33 COMMON STOCK PRICES, YIELD, AND EARNINGS Stock prices after sagging slightly in December rebounded sharply in January. There was little change In early February. INDEX, 1941-43«10 INDEX, 1941-43=10 120 120 110 110 f- COMPOSITE PRICE INDEX FOR 500 COMMON STOCKS 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 PERCENT PERCENT RA1no RATIO 20 ^ ^^ r C RICE/EARNINGS ^^NX*^^ °0 •\ / 15 RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS ^Xx*^_ in s "™********Sr^ I K 1 f ' 1970 ' ! \ 1971 ! ! 1 1 1 T 1 1973 1972 ^"^ 1 1 1974 ! i ! "' 10 "** ! ' ! 1975 | SOURCE, STANDARD 8. POOR'S CORPORATION 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1975: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug — Sept Oct Nov.. Dec 1976: Jan_._ Feb Week ended: 1976: Jan 16 23 30 Feb 6 13 20 27 _ f 1976 K M Capital goods 1 Total Total 83. 22 98.29 109. 20 107. 43 82. 85 86. 16 80. 10 83. 78 84.72 90. 10 92.40 92.49 85. 71 84. 67 88.57 90. 07 88.70 96.86 100. 64 91. 29 108. 35 121. 79 120. 44 92.91 96. 56 89.29 93. 90 95.27 101. 56 103. 68 103. 84 96. 21 94. 96 99. 29 100. 86 99. 31 108. 45 112. 96 1941-^1:3=10 80. 22 87. 87 102. 80 99. 78 113. 91 119. 39 107. 13 118. 57 92.84 78.08 81. 18 94.63 88.50 75.06 80. 42 92.78 80. 75 96.76 85. 15 101. 96 85. 98 101. 15 86. 58 101. 15 78. 29 93.05 93.61 77. 25 83. 07 95. 77 88. 01 97.35 85. 66 96.41 108. 41 91.03 93.47 116. 68 96. 53 98. 53 99. 65 100. 76 100. 16 100. 60 101. 03 108. 110. 111. 113. 112. 112. 113. 107. 110. 112. 117. 115. 115. 118. 07 37 68 00 39 92 52 1 Includes 500 common stocks: 425 industrials, 55 public utilities, and 20 railroads. Weekly indexes for capital and consumer goods are Wednesday figures; all8 other weekly indexes are averages of daily figures. Aggregate cash dividends (based on latest known annual rate) divided by th« aggregate monthly market value of the stocks in the group. Annual yields 34 ! COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Price index Industrials Period ! Consumers' goods 87 68 39 38 78 12 45 91. 77 91.66 91.29 94.25 93.43 92. 35 93. 85 Railroads Dividend yield 2 (percent) 54. 48 59.33 56.90 53. 47 38. 91 41.17 40. 37 39. 55 38. 19 39. 69 43.67 43.67 40. 61 40. 53 42. 59 43.77 43.25 46.99 47.22 32. 13 41. 94 44. 11 38.01 37. 53 37.48 37.80 38. 35 38. 55 38. 90 38. 94 38.04 35. 13 34. 93 36. 92 37.81 37. 07 41.42 43.40 3.83 3. 14 2.84 3.06 4.47 4.31 4. 61 4. 42 4.34 4.08 4.02 4.02 4.36 4. 39 4.22 4. 07 4. 14 3. 80 3. 67 46. 87 47. 49 47. 81 47. 94 47. 14 47. 12 46. 67 41.40 42.42 42. 35 42. 93 43. 23 43. 71 43. 78 3. 78 3. 74 3. 75 3.63 3.67 3.71 3.65 Public utilities Price/ earnings ratio 3 15.69 18.50 18.20 1422 8.94 9.90 12. 08 11.01 are averages of monthly data. Weekly data are Wednesday figures. s Ratio of price index for last day of quarter to quarterly earnings (seasonal^ adjusted annual rate). Annual ratios are averages of quarterly data. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation. FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBT The estimated budget deficits for fiscal 1976 and 1977 are $76.0 billion and $43.0 billion, respectively. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 450 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 450 400 -50 -100 1968 1969 1970 1972 1971 1973 1975 1974 1976 1977 FISCAL YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE& DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Federal debt ( end of period) Period Fiscal year: 1967. 1968 1969_ Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) Tntftl 1 Held by the public 149.6 153.7 187. 8 158. 3 178.8 184. 5 -8.7 -25.2 3. 2 341. 3 369.8 367. 1 267.5 290. 6 279.5 193.7 188.4 208.6 232.2 264. 9 196. 6 211.4 231.9 246.5 26a 4 -2.8 -23.0 — 23. 2 -14.3 -a 5 382. 6 409. 5 437. 3 468.4 48d 2 284.9 304.3 323. 8 343.0 346. 1 1975 1976 2 Transition2 quarter2 1977 281. 0 297.5 81.9 351.3 324.6 37as 98.0 394.2 -43.6 -76.0 -16.1 -43.0 544. 1 633. 9 652.8 719.5 396.9 484. 4 504. 4 558.2 Cumulative totals for first 7 months: Fiscal year 1975 Fiscal year 1976 164.6 165.1 182. 1 215.3 -17.5 -50.2 505.5 595.3 364.5 454. 1 _ 1970 1971. 1972. 1973 1974 * Excludes non-interest-bearing public debt securities held by IMF. i Estimates from The Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1977. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 35 FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION Fiscal 1976 budget receipts are estimated at $297.5 billion and budget outlays at $373.5 billion. The corresponding figures for fiscal 1977 are $351.3 billion and $394.2 billion, respectively. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 50 300 OUTLAYS 300 250 250 200 200 NONDEFENSE 150 150 NATIONAL DEFENSE 100 100 50 _L I 1948 1969 1970 JL JL _L 1971 1972 1973 _L 1974 50 1975 1977 1976 SOURCES; DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Receii3tS Period Total Individual Corporation income income taxes taxes Other Total C)utlays National defense Health Depart- InternaInand tional ment of income terest Other Total Defense, affairs security military Fiscal year: 1967 1968 1969 149. 6 153.7 187.8 61.5 68.7 87.2 34. 0 28.7 36.7 54. 1 56. 3 63. 9 158.3 178.8 184. 5 69. 1 79.4 80. 2 67. 5 77. 4 77.9 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 193. 7 188.4 208. 6 232.2 264. 9 90.4 86.2 94. 7 103.2 119. 0 32. 8 26. 8 32. 2 36. 2 38.6 70. 5 75. 4 81. 7 92. 8 107.4 196. 6 211.4 231. 9 246. 5 268. 4 79.3 76.8 77.4 75. 1 78.6 77.2 74.5 75. 2 73. 3 77.6 1975 1976 ! Transition1 quarter 1 _ _ _ 1977 281.0 297. 5 81.9 351. 3 122.4 130. 8 40.0 153. 6 40.6 40. 1 49.5 8.4 118. 0 126. 7 33.5 148.2 324. 6 373. 5 98. 0 394. 2 86.6 92. 8 25.0 101. 1 Cumulative totals for first 7 months: Fiscal year 1975 .. Fiscal year 1976. __ 164.6 165. 1 83. 0 81.1 17.4 17.6 64. 2 66. 3 182. 1 215.3 49. 8 53. 1 i Estimates from The Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1977. 36 4.7 37. 6 43. 4 49. 0 12. 5 13. 8 15. 8 34.3 37.7 35.7 3. 1 3. 7 3. 0 3. 6 3.6 56. 1 70. 1 81. 4 91. 8 106. 5 18. 3 19.6 20. 6 22. 8 28. 1 39. 3 41.8 48. 8 53. 9 51.7 85.0 89.8 24.5 99. 6 4.4 5.7 1.3 136. 3 160. 6 41.0 171. 5 31. 0 34.8 41. 3 9.8 66.4 79. 6 20.8 73. 5 49.2 51. 2 2. 1 73.8 91.9 17. 8 19.8 38. 6 48. 1 4. 6 3. 8 6. 8 2.4 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the fourth quarter, expenditures rose $10.4 billion, compared to a $11.5 billion increase in the quarter before. With receipts excluding corporate profits tax accruals up $7.1 billion in the fourth quarter, the growth in total receipts is expected to be similar to that of expenditures so that the deficit will show tittle change. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 440 400 240 200 200 160 160 SURPLUS H 11ram ™m "i ^"i l i i i^1^1 I \i i I w 1 -40 -80 DEFICIT 1968 197! 1970 1969 1972 1973 -80 i -120 1974 -120 97 5 CM.INOA.R YEARS SOURCE! DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE -40 1976 O3UNOL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] ]federal (jrovernm ent expendi tares Federal (Sovernm ent receip ts Period Indirect Personal Corporate business and profits Total tax tax and nontax tax nontax receipts accruals accruals Fiscal year: 1973 240.0 1974 271.6 1975 281. 5 19761 307.4 1977 J 364. 7 Calendar year: 1972 227. 5 1973 257. 9 1974 288.4 1975 J. 283. 2 107. 3 122. 9 126. 4 136. 4 IdO. 4 40.5 43. 6 40. 6 47.5 58. 2 Surplus or Subsidies Less: deficit Grantsless Wage ContriPurin-aid (-), current accruals national butions chases Trans- to State Net for Total of goods fer pay- and interest surplusof less income social inments local and paid Govern- disand surance services government en- burse- product ments terprises ments accounts 101. 5 104.5 117.6 130. 0 139. 4 89.7 104. 7 134. 8 158.7 168.2 40. 4 41. 6 48. 3 57. 8 9. 1 7. 9 5.7 6. 2 5.6 0.5 -. 1 . 4 59. 3 15. 9 19. 8 22. 0 26. 0 32. 0 !o — 47. 2 — 71. 3 — 39. 8 244. 7 264. 8 300. 1 83.2 95. 8 117. 7 149. 2 37. 5 40. 6 43. 9 54.3 14. 6 18. 2 21.0 23.4 7.8 8. 2 5.2 6. 8 .5 — .5 .0 -17. 3 -6.9 356. 9 102. 1 102. 0 111.7 123.2 -11.7 -73.7 -5. 3 20.7 21.4 22.4 24. 0 24. 3 71. 5 83. 7 92.0 99. 5 121.8 278. 7 328.7 20.0 21.2 21.7 62. 8 79. 4 89.4 93. 5 256. 1 378. 7 404. 5 .0 -16. 1 -7. 1 108.2 114. 7 131. 4 36. 6 39.9 24.2 I 275.7 II— 285. 6 III.. 299.2 IV... 293. 1 124. 2 129. 5 134. 6 137.4 43.1 45. 8 51.8 21.3 21. 7 22. 1 21.7 87. 2 88. 6 SO. 8 91. 1 281. 1 293. 5 307.2 318.6 106. 1 108. 9 113.6 118.2 107.0 114. 9 121.2 127. 8 42.7 43.4 44. 0 45.4 19.9 20. 8 21.4 22.0 5.3 5.0 5. 5 5. 1 .0 -.6 — 1.5 .0 -7. 9 -8.0 -25. 5 1975: I 283. 6 II— 250. 1 III.. 293.3 137. 6 99. 3 130. 5 135.2 32. 1 35.5 43. 4 22.3 91.7 91.9 93. 9 96. 4 337. 4 352.3 363. 8 374.2 119. 4 119. 2 124.2 129. 9 139.2 50. 1 152. 5 154. 5 56. 8 57. 4 22.4 22.6 23. 4 25. 3 6. 3 7. 1 6.9 7.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 -53. 7 -102.2 — 70. 5 1974: IV ». J 125. 6 42. 5 45.9 42.9 23.5 25. 5 25.4 .Estimates. Note.—Revised series. See Survey of Current Business, January 1976. 150.5 52. 8 .0 Source; Department of Coxamerce, Bureau of Economic .Analysis. 31 UNITED STATES u GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE POSTAGS AND FEES PAID - DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS WASHINGTON. D.C. 2O4O2 OFFICIAL BUSINESS First-Class Mall Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product National Income Sources of Personal Income . Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment Page *, k . , . „-.»% , 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 fc •. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment , , Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries. Productivity and Related Data, Private Economy 10 11 12 13 14 14 15 , PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups . Industrial Production—Selected Manufactures ...,.„. Weekly Indicators of Production New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. Balances on Goods, Services, and Transfers U.S. Overall Balances on International Transactions 16 17 17 18 19 19 20 21 22 23 24 , ^ , PRICES Wholesale Prices Consumer Prices Changes in Wholesale Prices Changes in Consumer Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 25 26 27 27 28 , MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock Private Liquid Asset Holdings—Nonfinancial Investors Bank Loans, Investments, Debits, and Reserves Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business. Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations Bond Yields and Interest Rates Common Stock Prices, Yield, and Earnings 29 30 31 32 32 33 34 ,. FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays and Debt Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis , 35 36 37 NOTE.—"Economic Indicators" is in the process of being revised. Some of these changes have been incorporated in the January and February issues. The revision will be completed within a few months. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402 Price 85 cents (single copy). Subscription price: $10.10 per year; $2.55 additional for foreign mailing. ^^ «.S. GOVERNMEHT PRINTIHS OFFICfs!97f