Full text of Economic Indicators : February 1949
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Joint yL/ £c 7/fc 7/9 v9 - ^ Comminee Prini 1949 Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council of Economic Advisers and printed for the use of the Joint Committee on the Economic Report UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1949 85917 JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT (Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming, Chairman EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey, Vice Chairman FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas JOHN SPARKMAN, Alabama WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois FRANK BUCHANAN, Pennsylvania ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts FRED E. BERQUIST, Acting Staff Director JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk WILLIAM H. MOORE, Economist To the Members of Congress: As has been stated in previous issues of Economic Indicators from the time the Joint Committee on the Economic Report was established, its members realized that one of its basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture of current economic trends and developments. Fortunately, the Joint Committee finds that Economic Indicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiled monthly by the Council of Economic Advisers, admirably fills this need. While this material was prepared primarily for the use of the President, the Council and other officials in the executive offices, the Council has made it available to the Joint Committee. Other Members of Congress have also expressed an interest in being able to obtain a quick picture of current economic facts without having to go through voluminous and specialized documents. In addition, businessmen, farm leaders, labor organizations, and representatives of the press and radio have indicated their desire for this information. Since nothing contained in these charts and tables is of a confidential nature they have urged that the material be made available to the general public. Accordingly, the Joint Committee has, since last July, provided the Congress and the public with a limited number of copies of Economic Indicators as a Committee print pending final action on authorizing the publication on a more permanent basis. Since such legislatiot is still under consideration, the Committee is continuing to issue the report on a monthly basis. Comments or suggestions with respect to possible improvements in this presentation will always b< welcome. Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report. Letter of Transmittal Hon. JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report, United States Congress, Washington, D. C. DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the Joint Committee on the Economic Report in your plans to make Economic Indicators available to the Congress as a whole and to the general public. In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has found it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts showing current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a better position to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the improvement and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services. We have realized, of course, that this material has a potential usefulness not only to the President, the Council and the executive departments, but also to the Congress. Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and consumer organizations with whom we regularly consult. We believe the Joint Committee will perform a service of real value by giving wide circulation to this material. Sincerely yours, Chairman. ( ' / Vice Chairman. iii Contents THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET Page The Nation's Economic Budget 1 PRICES Consumers' Prices Wholesale Prices. Prices Received and Paid by Farmers. . Stock Prices. . 2 3 4 5 EMPLOYMENT Labor Force Employment in Business and Government Average Weekly Hours. . .. Work Stoppages 6 7 8 9 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Production of Selected Durable Manufactures Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures New Construction New Housing Starts Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment. New Corporate Security Issues Inventories and Sales Exports and Imports. . 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 PURCHASING POWER National Income Corporate Profits Personal Income Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving Per Capita Income Average Hourly Earnings Average Weekly Earnings Farm Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Consumer Credit 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE Bank Loans and Investments Money Supply Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public ,. . , , 29 W II THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET The Nation's Economic Budget dollar total increased by 4 percent from the 1st half to the 2nd half of 1948. The Government surplus declined sharply as receipts fell and payments rose. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TOTAL (GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT) 1948, FIRST HALF ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJ 1948, SECOND HALF 1948, FIRST HALF Transfer payments . CONSUMERS EXCESS OF EXPENDITURES (-), RECEIPTS**) t CONSUMER SAVING BUSINESS EXCESS OF INVESTMENT INTERNATIONAL EXCESS OF INVESTMENT GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL,STATE AND LOCAL) CASH SURPLUS 619 *' 49 8 ^Transfer payments* 1948, SECOND HALF Transfer payments < CONSUMERS INTERNATIONAL GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL.STATE AND LOCAL) CASH SURPLUS payments* TRANSFER PAYMENTS ARE INCLUDED IN RECEIPTS OR EXPENDITURES OF THE SEPARATE ACCOUNTS BUT NOT IN THE TOTAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT. ' INCLUDES AN ADJUSTMENT OF + $ 2.8 BILLION IN FIRST HALF AND - $ 2.3 BILLION IN SECOND HALF. SOURCE: SEE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT. JANUARY 1949, APPENDIX A. PRICES CONSUMERS' PRICES Consumers' prices in December were 2% below the September peak. Food prices accounted for most of the decline,while apparel prices dropped slightly. Rent continued upward. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE 225 225 200 - 200 175 175 150 150 125 125 100 100 1940 1939 1941 1943 1942 1944 1945 1947 1946 1948 *ALSO INCLUDES HOUSEFURNISHINGS, FUEL, ELECTRICITY, ICE, AND MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES, NOT SHOWN ON CHART. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. [1935-39=100] All items l Period 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average Food Apparel Rent 99.4 105. 2 116. 5 123 6 125. 5 128. 4 139. 3 159. 2 171. 2 95.2 105. 5 123.9 138 0 136. 1 139. 1 159. 6 193. 8 210. 2 100.5 106.3 124.2 129. 7 138. 8 145. 9 160.2 185.8 198. 0 104. 3 106.2 108.5 108.0 108.2 108.3 108. 6 111.2 117. 4 1947: November December 164. 9 167. 0 202. 7 206. 9 190.2 191.2 115.2 115.4 1948: January . February March April May June Julv August September October November December 168. 8 167. 5 166. 9 169. 3 170. 5 171.7 173 7 174. 5 174. 5 173. 6 172. 2 171. 4 209. 7 204. 7 202. 3 207.9 210.9 214. 1 216 8 216. 6 215.2 211. 5 207. 5 205. 0 192. 1 195. 1 196.3 196.4 197.5 196.9 197. 1 199. 7 201.0 201.6 201, 4 200, 4 115. 9 116.0 116.3 116.3 116.7 117.0 117. H 117. 7r 1 1 8. «> 118,7 1 _ ._ . __ .. Also includes housefurnishings, fuel, electricity, refrigeration, and NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities. Source: Department of Labor, 118. K J H>, fi WHOLESALE PRICES Further declines in farm and food prices brought the wholesale price level down again in January to about that of February 1948. Other than farm and food prices rose slightly. PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE 220 PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE 220 WEEKLY INDE,X 200 200 -FARM PRC DUCTS 180 180 *"*********«VX-rooDS '\ ^ *»., ^^^B*»^ 'ALL COMMODITIES^^^ 160 140 120 120 100 100 i 60 1940 1939 1946 1942 1941 1947 1948 1949 | i 1I i i | NOV. DEC. 1948 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC [1926=100] All commodities Period 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1946 monthly average June 1947 monthly average - 1948 monthly average ». 1 948 * January February _.. March April - .Mav June July August September October November December > 1949: Week ended: Jan. 4 11 _ . _ 18_ 25 Feb. 1 J ' __ A»A«,J 1 _ •. Farm products Foods Other than farm and foods 77. 1 87. 3 98 8 121 1 112. 9 152 1 164. 9 165 7 160. 9 161.4 162 8 163 9 166 2 168 7 169 5 168. 7 165. 2 163 9 162. 2 65 3 82.4 105 9 148 9 140. 1 181 2 188. 3 199 2 185. 3 186. 0 186 7 189 1 196 0 195. 2 191. 0 189. 9 183. 5 180 8 177. 3 70. 4 82. 7 99 6 130 7 112. 9 168. 7 179. 1 179 9 172.4 173. 8 176. 7 177.4 181.4 188. 3 189.5 186. 9 178. 2 174 3 170. 2 81. 3 89.0 95. 5 109. 5 105. 6 135. 2 150. 6 148. 3 147. 6 147.7 148. 7 149. 1 149. 5 151. 1 153. 1 153. 3 153. 1 153. 3 152.8 161. 3 160. 5 159. 3 158. 8 158.8 175. 5 174. 3 170. 1 167. 9 168.9 168. 0 164.4 161. 9 159. 2 158. 6 152.6 152.9 153.0 153.6 153.5 Data became available after chart was prepared. NOTE.—The weekly index presented here is a revised index which permits direct comparison with the monthly index. It is not comparable with the old weekly index which does not permit sucii a comparison. Source: Department of Labor. 1 ' ' JAN. 1949 ADVISERS 60 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received and paid by farmers remained unchanged from December to January. PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 19IO~I4 AVERAGE 350 350 MONTHLY AVERA8E PRICES RECEIVED 3 GO 300 250 250 PRICES PAID (INCL. INTEREST, TAXES) 200 200 150 150 100 100 PARITY RATIO 50 50 I 1939 I 40 I 41 I I I 42 43 44 45 46 J I F M A M J J A S O N ' D J F M A M J 1947 I I D I I J F M A M J 1949 Prices paid by Prices farmers (includ- Parity ratio3 received ing interest2 by farmers * and taxes) 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average _ 1947: December.. _ _.. ._ 95 124 159 192 195 202 233 278 287 124 132 150 162 170 174 194 231 249 301 245 307 279 283 291 289 295 301 293 290 277 271 268 251 248 247 249 250 251 251 251 250 249 247 248 268 248 » August 1909-July 1914=100. 1910-14= 100. Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, and taxes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 2 3 I COUNClt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Period 1949: January I 1948 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. 1948: January.— February March April May June July August September October. November December I J A S O N 77 94 106 119 115 116 120 120 115 123 122 112 115 117 116 118 120 117 116 111 110 108 108 STOCK PRICES After dropping from October through December 1948, stock prices rose in January. PERCENT PERCENT OF 1935 - 39 A V E R A G E OF 1935-39 AVERAGE 175 175 I 50 150 125 125 100 100 75 50 I 1939 40 41 42 43 44 45 I I I I I I I I I I J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J J F M A M J 46 1947 1948 1949 SOURCE : STANDARD AND POOR'S CORPORATION. [1935-39=100] Combined index l Period 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average — 1943 monthly average .„ 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1947 : December 1948; January - » February March . . April May . . June July August September _ _ October November December . . --1949: Januarv __ -- 94.2 80.0 69. 4 91. 9 99.8 121. 5 139. 9 123.0 124. 4 122.4 120. 1 114.2 116.4 124.6 130.2 135. 1 131.9 127. 1 125.7 127.8 120. 4 119. 4 121. 0 Industrials 1 94.8 80.4 71.3 94. 1 101.7 123. 3 143.4 128.0 130. 6 129.2 126.0 119.2 121.8 130.8 136. 9 142.7 138.9 133. 5 131.7 134.3 126. 4 125. 5 127.3 Railroads l 74.7 70. 6 66. 1 88. 7 101.0 136. 9 143. 0 105.3 114. 8 103.9 106. 5 101. 9 105.2 115.2 122.6 125. 6 124.7 119. 7 120.4 120. 9 108. 8 105. 8 105. 9 Utilities » 98. 6 81 0 61. 3 82 1 89. 9 106 1 120 2 102. 9 96. 3 94.0 95. 1 92. 6 93.0 96.2 99.2 100. 6 99.5 97 3 97.3 97.4 94. 2 92. 9 94. 2 1 Combined index prior to June 23, 1948, was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials, 20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads, and 31 utilities. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation. EMPLOYMENT Unemployment increased more than seasonally in January k> about 2.7 million, just above the level of February 1948. Employment dropped by 2 million. MILLIONS OF PERSONS MILLIONS OF PERSONS 75 75 TOTAL LABOR FORCE NOMAGRSCULTURE 25 - MONTHLY AVERAGE J UNEMPLOYEC) - F M A -rv1AGNIFIED M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J 1944 A M J , , , , , " " 1946 1945 1947 1948 1949 SOURCE: D E P A R T M E N T OF C O M M E R C E [Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over] Total labor force, including armed forces Period 1941 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1947: December. 1948: January February March April May . June July August September October November December 1949: January M SCALE @ m~ 1941 F fc _ ... Civilians employed Total In nonagricultural industries In agriculture Armed forces Unemployed 57, 380 65, 890 65, 140 60, 820 61, 608 62, 748 50, 350 53,960 52, 820 55, 250 58, 027 59, 378 41, 250 45, 010 44, 240 46, 930 49, 761 51, 405 9, 100 8,950 8,580 8, 320 8,266 7,973 1,470 11,260 11, 280 3,300 1,440 1,307 5, 560 670 1,040 2,270 2, 141 2,064 60, 870 60, 455 61, 004 61, 005 61, 760 61, 660 64, 740 65,135 64,511 63, 578 63,166 63, 138 62, 828 61, 546 57, 947 57, 149 57, 139 57, 329 58, 330 58, 660 61, 296 61,615 61, 245 60,312 60, 134 59,893 59, 434 57, 414 50, 985 50, 089 50, 368 50, 482 50, 883 50, 800 51, 899 52, 452 52, 801 51, 590 51, 506 51, 932 52, 059 50, 651 6,962 7,060 6, 771 6,847 7,448 7,861 9,396 9,163 8,444 8,723 8,627 7,961 7,375 6,763 1,280 1,241 1,226 ,236 ,236 ,238 ,261 ,293 1,325 1, 366 1,391 1, 414 1,453 1,468 1,643 2, 065 2, 639 2, 440 2, 193 1,761 2, 184 2,227 1,941 1,899 1,642 1,831 1,941 2, 664 NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. EMPLOYMENT IN BUSINESS AND GOVERNMENT Employment in manufacturing industries dropped 200,000 in December to a total of 16.2 million, or slightly under the level of a year before. Employment in trade and post offices(part of government) increased seasonally. MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS 12 1939 SOURCE: 1940 MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS 12 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 I | | | ! I | I I I I I I I I I I i ! I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I o J F M A M J J A ' S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J t l A S O N D 1947 1948 J949 Deportment of Lobor Council of Economic Advisers [Thousands of wage and salary workers l] Durable manufacturing Period 1939 monthly 1943 monthly 1946 monthly 1947 monthly 1948 monthly average average average average average 2 1947: November. December _ „ » 1948i January . February . „ March April- . May ._ _June July August September October 2 November » _ December2., _ _ _ _ „ ~ !_ Nondurable manufacturing Trade Transportation and Finance and Government (Federal, service public State, local) utilities Contract construction Mining 4,357 10, 297 7, 180 8,055 8,213 5,720 7, 084 7,335 7,846 8,059 6, 705 7,322 8 820 9, 450 9, 746 4, 610 5, 187 6 016 6 278 6 403 3, 987 6,049 5 607 5, 450 5, 658 2, 912 3, 619 4, 023 4,059 4,065 1, 150 1,567 1, 661 1,921 2,063 84i 91' 85! 91 92^ 8, 194 8,274 8,062 8,080 9,886 10, 288 6,343 6,364 5, 387 5, 638 4,077 4,071 2,046 1, 978 92J 92J 8,256 8, 167 8,258 8, 164 8, 114 8, 122 8,165 8, 188 8,294 8,319 8,301 8,214 8,011 8,016 8,011 7,786 7,778 7, 993 8,007 8,253 8,403 8,279 8, 148 8,028 9, 622 9, 520 9, 598 9, 576 9, 617 9, 670 9,646 9, 660 9, 733 9,889 10, 035 10, 387 6, 403 6, 420 6,426 6, 472 6,454 6 389 6,399 6, 383 6,379 6,377 6, 376 6,354 5,498 5,492 5, 546 5, 577 5, 624 5, 607 5,604 5, 650 5,801 5, 789 5, 714 5, 994 4,020 4,019 4,032 3,974 4,042 4, 105 4, 136 4, 139 4,092 4, 090 4, 066 4,069 1,871 1,731 1, 805 1,933 2,052 2, 173 2,219 2,253 2,239 2,206 2, 161 2,109 92! 9192< 81' 93J 95( 92! 95! 94! 94 941 93 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period endin tumrest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from thi ttibte not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 6) which includ |*i«t|irietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; an witir.lt8 are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. Preliminary estimate. Digitized for Bource: FRASERDepartment of Labor. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS A slight decrease in average weekly hours was registered generally in November. Preliminary data for December show a return to the October level for manufacturing. HOUF?S PER WEEK, HOURS PER WEEK ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES BITUMINOUS COAL MINING 50 50 MONTHLY AVERAGE 55 40 40 rm 1 30 30 20 - - _ 20 - , i i i i \ \ i ii ii 0 ,1939 41 44 45 1946 i . , ., i , . , . i 1947 1939 41 1948 44 45 1948 PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION 50 RETAIL TRADE 50 MONTHLY AVERAGE 40 «***——v IVj*^^""^*!* m 30 20 ~ 1- - 20 10 . .... h,, . . 0 1939 41 44 45 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT | 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 . , , , 1946 1 , , 1 , 1 1939 41 1948 44 45 1946 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVrSERS OF LABOR. [Hours per week, selected industries] All manufacturing industries Period Bituminous coal mining Private building construction * Retail trade 1 939 monthly average 1 94 1 monthly average 1944 monthly average . . . . 1945 monthly average ». ... . . . 1946 monthly average-..—.-----.---..1947 monthly average ........ 37. 7 40.6 45. 2 43. 4 40.4 40.3 27. 1 31. 1 43. 4 42. 3 41.6 40. 7 32. 6 34.8 39. 6 39.0 38. 1 37.8 43.0 42.5 40. 3 40.3 40.5 40.2 1947: October November . . December . ...*.*... 40. 6 40.4 41.2 39. 9 38. 5 41.2 38. 1 36.6 37.9 40.0 39.5 39.7 1948* January. ....... ._.....--February „_. .. . March . . < < April _ May. . ,. _ _ . , • June -w - - -July • August • .- . -• . September . ., 3 October ..-.., -.. - . November 3 December ^ 40. 5 40. 2 40.4 40. 1 39.9 40.2 39.8 40. 1 39. 8 39.9 39. 7 39. 9 40.9 38. 7 40. 6 2 27. 0 40.3 39.9 34.2 39.4 37.7 38.6 37. 1 37.2 36.7 37. 1 37. 0 37. 1 37. 9 37.8 37.8 37.5 37.4 36. 7 39.8 40.0 39.8 39.8 39. 9 40. 3 40.8 41.0 40. 2 39. 7 39.5 1 2 3 . . Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects. Based on pay period during coal stoppage. Preliminary estimate. Source: Department of Labor. WORK STOPPAGES Work stoppages dropped sharply in December. MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE 25 M i l l tON's in 20 15 PEAK MONTH 1939 40 41 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT 42 43 44 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N I 45 OF LABOR. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S f W Man-days idle (thousands) Period 1939: Monthly average April—peak month _ 1941: Monthly average _ _ April—peak month 1942: Monthly average 1943: Monthly average .. June —peak month _ _ _ _ 1944: Monthly average 1945: Monthly average October—peak month 1946: Monthly average __, _ .. > . _ _ February—peak month .. 1947: Monthly average April—peak month 1948: Monthly average l 1948: May 1 June 1* July 1 August . 1 September . . October1 . _ November *._• December * _ 1 Preliminary estimate. __. _ _. .» __ - .. . _ _ _ _ _ „. _ _ . . 1, 484 4, 902 1,921 7, 113 0. 28 349 .05 1, 125 4, 699 727 . „.._ . _ _ > „ Source: Department of Labor. , Man-days idle as percent of estimated available working time 3, 168 8, 610 9, 672 22, 900 2, 993 8, 540 2, 833 4, 100 2, 200 2, 750 2, 100 2, 500 2,000 1, 900 600 . 32 1. 13 . 15 .62 .09 .47 1.39 1.43 4. 19 .41 1. 19 .6 .3 .3 .2 .3 .3 .3 .1 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY D- i INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Industrial production declined about \{/z percent in December, chiefly as a result of reduced output of nondurable goods. Preliminary data indicate that production continued in January at about the December rate. 250 h 250 200 - 200 50 N 1947 * PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RRESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISER [1935-39 = 100, seasonally adjusted] Points in total index, 1935-39 average for total =100 Indexes, 1935-39=100 Period Manufactures Total industrial Nondura- Mining production Total Durable goods ble goods 1935-39 monthly average. 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average-.. 1947 monthly average.-. 1948 monthly average *-. 1947: December 1948: January.. February ..... March April May June July August September _ October November December * 1949: January *_ ... Preliminary estimate. 0 1948 100 239 203 170 187 192 192 193 194 191 188 192 192 186 191 192 195 195 192 192 100 258 214 177 194 198 198 201 201 200 195 197 198 191 197 199 202 201 198 200 100 360 274 192 220 225 230 229 226 229 217 221 222 219 222 225 230 229 228 229 100 176 166 165 172 177 173 178 180 177 177 178 179 169 176 178 179 178 174 176 100 132 137 134 149 155 156 154 155 142 147 162 159 153 159 156 158 161 156 153 Manufactures Durable goods 38 136 104 73 83 85 87 87 86 87 82 84 84 83 84 85 87 "87 87 87 Nondura- Mining ble goods 47 83 78 77 81 83 81 83 84 83 83 83 84 79 82 83 84 83 81 82 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 15 20 21 21 23 24 24 23 24 22 22 25 24 23 24 24 24 25 24 23 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE MANUFACTURES Output of transportation equipment in December was 2 percent over November. There was little change in lumber, or in iron and steel. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935- 39 AVERAGE TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT LUMBER AND PRODUCTS 400 MONTHLV A V E R A G E MONTHLY AVERAGE 300 700 JlL* 1943 1945 1935-39 1943 1945 1946 1947 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I i I I 1935-39 1935-39 1943 1345 1948 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S [1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted] Transportation equipment Period Lumber and products Iron and steel 1935—39 monthly average . 1943 monthly average «,. .. ....... . ... 1945 monthly average .. - - ... 1946 monthly average .. .. .. 1947 monthly average l 1948 monthly average . 100 734 487 232 230 234 100 130 110 130 144 146 100 208 183 150 195 208 1947r November December 234 244 150 153 202 205 244 232 240 237 218 223 235 231 231 240 236 240 155 150 151 145 142 140 142 149 143 147 145 144 203 203 207 177 207 207 200 207 214 221 223 222 1948: January .. February _ March April May .. June July August September,. October November.l December 1 .- . . _ - _._.-. .. . - ... ......... ... - ... Preliminary estimate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE MANUFACTURES Textile output dropped 4 percent in December, while petroleum and coal products rose 2 percent. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS 300 MONTHLY AVERAGE MONTHLY AVERAGE 200 100 1935-39 43 45 1935-39 43 1947 1946 45 CHEMICAL PRODUCTS MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS 400 400 MONTHLY AVERAGE 300 300 200 200 100 100 1935-39 43 1935-39 45 43 1947 1946 45 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. 1948 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted] Textiles and products Period 1935—39 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average.. 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1 1948 monthly average r «. . . „„ 1947: November December. 1948: January February March April M ay .., June.. July August September October November December1 1 „ . _ _ __ _ . __ „ _• . Manufactured food products Chemical products 100 153 146 162 163 169 100 185 235 173 193 218 100 145 151 150 157 159 100 384 284 236 251 254 172 163 205 208 158 158 251 254 179 179 175 174 176 174 154 166 168 167 164 157 214 215 211 213 220 221 217 222 207 217 226 230 158 160 158 157 159 163 160 154 163 161 159 158 255 252 250 249 249 256 251 259 257 255 256 256 Preliminary estimate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Petroleum and coal products NEW CONSTRUCTION The decline in the volume of construction activity in January was less than in January 1948. The value of private construction was about equal to a year ago while public construction was almost !/3 higher. MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2,000 2,000 MONTHLY AVERAGE TOTAL NEW CONSTRUCTION 1,500 1,500 1,000 1,000 500 500 1 O 1939 1942 1944 1945 1946 1947 N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 1949 ^INCLUDES PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] Private construction Total new construction Period Total private 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1947: December 1948: January. _ February _ _ March April May June July _ August September October November. December _ _ 1949: January 2 1 2 .. . _ _ _ 526 1, 118 345 401 871 1, 165 1,472 1,320 1, 157 1, 009 1, 166 1,311 1,461 1,616 1, 715 1,799 1,782 1,707 1,552 1,391 1,261 Residential (nonfarm) 317 251 152 226 688 908 13 136 1,097 948 837 940 1,024 1, 120 1,235 1,318 1,354 1,332 1,265 1, 178 1,080 978 176 110 45 57 265 438 582 610 500 400 475 525 585 635 680 695 685 650 600 550 490 Other 141 141 107 169 422 469 554 487 448 437 466 499 535 600 638 659 647 615 578 530 488 Federal, State, and local * 208 867 193 174 184 257 336 223 209 172 226 287 341 381 397 445 450 442 374 311 283 Includes public residential ^construction. Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor. 13 NEW HOUSING STARTS In December, housing starts declined less than half as much as in the preceding year. They were slightly below the levels of a year ago but 40 percent above those of two years ago. THOUSANDS OF UNITS THOUSANDS OF UNITS 100 100 40 - - - - 40 20 - - - - 20 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LA80R, New nonfarm units (conventional and prefabricated) l Period Total 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 2 1948 monthly average 1947: July _ August September. October November December 1948: Januarv _ February ' March April .. . ». . ... . ... ... .. . ; May June July August- 2 September October 2 November22 December 1 2 .. _ .. __ _ _ _ 64, 683 71, 125 77, 233 81, 100 86, 300 93, 800 94, 000 79, 700 58, 800 52, 600 49, 600 75, 100 98, 800 99, 400 97, 500 93, 500 86, 300 81, 000 72, 000 65, 000 56, 000 Urban Rural nonfarm 41, 164 40, 125 23, 520 31, 000 44, 500 47, 400 50, 300 53, 200 48, 000 36, 300 30, 400 28,800 42, 000 54, 400 56, 700 54, 400 51, 600 47, 400 36, 600 38, 900 43, 500 40, 800 31, 700 22, 500 22, 200 20, 800 33, 100 44, 400 42, 700 43, 100 41, 900 38, 900 New nonfarm family dwelling units. Temporary units are excluded after 1947 when the program ended. Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Labor. EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Nonagricultural business expenditures for plant and equipment are expected to show a seasonal decline in the first quarter of 1949, but present estimates run above first quarter of 1948. Railroad and utility investment continues to increase in relative importance. SILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 25 ANN UAL TOTALS 20 TRANSPORTATION AND ELECTRIC AND GAS FUTILITIES 10 10 _ 0 1939 1941 * NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL 1945 VARIATION. SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. [Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal] Transportation Total i Period Manufacturing Mining Railroad 1939 1941 1945 1946 1947 s 1948 . --_ _-_• -_-_ - - 1947: First quarter Second /quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter. 4 Fourth quarter 1949: First quarter 4 . -- Other Electric and Commercial miscelgas utilities and laneous 2 5,200 8,190 6,630 12, 040 16, 180 18, 840 1,930 3,400 3, 210 5,910 7,460 8, 180 380 680 440 560 690 770 280 560 550 570 910 1,310 280 340 320 660 800 690 480 710 630 1,040 1,900 2, 610 1, 850 2,490 1,480 3,300 4,430 5,280 12, 640 15, 760 16, 560 19, 760 5,800 7, 400 7, 480 9,160 600 640 720 840 640 880 920 1,200 720 920 800 760 1,320 1,800 2,000 2,480 3,600 4, 120 4,640 5,360 16, 680 19, 280 19, 320 20, 040 7,200 8,560 8,360 8,640 720 800 800 720 1,080 1,240 1,320 1,600 720 760 680 640 2,000 2,560 2,760 3,120 4, 960 5, 360 5,440 5,320 17, 560 7, 120 720 1,480 600 2,720 4,880 1 Excludes agriculture. 2 Includes trade, service, finance, and communication. 3 Based on actual expenditures for first three quarters 4 and estimates for the fourth quarter. Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business. NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other data. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000. Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted). NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES The seasonal increase in the 4th quarter, while less than in the preceding year, brought the yearly total of corporate security issues close to that of 1947. B I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S 3 .0 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3.0 QUARTERLY AVERAGE 2.5 2.0 SOURCE: SECURITIES I 1943 1945 AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION. 1939 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 [Millions of dollars] ]3roposed uses of net proceed3 Estimated net proceeds Period New money Total 1939 quarterly average 1943 quarterly average 1945 quarterly average 1946 quarterly average 1947 quarterly average _ 1948 quarterly average2 _ __ 1947: First quarter Second quarter. _ _ Third quarter Fourth quarter. _ _ _ 1948: First quarter _ Second quarter Third quarter 2 Fourth quarter 1 2 . .. .. _ __ _ _ _ _ __ _. _ . - __ _ __ __ _ . . - -_ _ _ _ _ 529 287 1,475 1,689 1,617 1,599 L6 1, 148 1, 388 402 661 692 305 338 192 347 348 727 490 310 845 555 274 280 316 214 309 221 97 1,032 1.654 1, 614 1,663 1,266 1, 852 1, 400 1,353 1,046 1, 754 1,080 884 Retirement of debt and stock i 39 42. Ill 291 296 356 2,000 706 1,000 Working capital 43 35 159 529 852 1, 054 1,727 1,374 2,311 Includes small amount for other purposes. Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Securities and Exchange Commission. 81 77 270 820 Plant and equipment 765 1,438 448 210 1,206 869 469 210 1 INVENTORIES AND SALES 1Retail sales, which had been showing less than the normal 1fhan seasonally in December and exceeded the 1947 level BILL IONS OF DOLLARS seasonal rise through the autumn, increased more BILLIONS OF DOLLARS MANUFACTURING 30 NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION j*<** WHOLESALE ^ 30 «.**- NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION INVENTORIES* 20 20 ^f^ ^^~ SALES* 1 0 10 i SALES V,. . 0 i i i i l 11 i i l \ 1 1 | 1l I 1 \ l i i 1946 1947 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 l * ^^ _ r INVENTORIES * i l i i i 1 i i i i i 1 i i i i i 1 i i I i I 0 1946 1948 -mm i i l i i 1i l l i l 1947 1948 PERCE NT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE BILL IONS OF DOLLARS RETAIL DEPARTMENT STORES 30 400 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 20 '/f^1<""**""'*""*^\/y SALES** 300 INVENTORIES! J^***^^r 10 .. ~ti S** 200 INVENTORIES** SALES* 0 i l i i l 1 I i i i l l l i l l I i \ i i i 1946 1947 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i i I I l 1 1i l I I 1 00 1946 1948 \ l I I I 1 1 l i i l i i i i i 1 i i l 1 i 1947 1948 <•* INDEXES COMPUTED FROM DATA ON RETAIL VALUE OF SALES FOR MONTH. AND RETAIL X SALES ARE * TOTAL FOR MONTH AND INVENTORIES ARE BOOK VALUE, END OF MONTH. SOURCES'. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL fl ESERVE Inventories * Sales* COUNCIL Wholesale l Manufacturing * Period SYS1"EM. Inventories * Retail* Sales « Inventories ' 1 18, 773 19, 468 21,500 23, 432 27, 055 27, 397 27, 627 28, 020 28, 501 28, 768 29, 064 29, 161 29, 437 29, 727 30, 236 30, 429 30, 710 30, 848 31, 200 31, 700 10, 712 11, 132 13, 055 14, 634 16, 597 18, 082 16, 554 17, 523 16, 552 16, 225 18, 117 17, 229 16, 777 17, 871 16, 403 18, 169 18, 781 18, 807 18, 000 18, 300 4,309 4,337 5,172 5,823 7,233 7,342 7,467 7,545 7,850 7,885 7,869 7,777 7,801 7,953 7,930 8, 100 8,243 8,382 8,501 8,286 5, 338 5,575 6,321 7,118 7,763 8,716 8,013 8,262 7,692 7,121 7,726 7,652 7,389 7,766 7,796 8,161 8,286 8,376 8,242 8, 191 ADVISERS Department stores Sales * Inventories Sales 1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted * Millions of dollars 1946: March , June- _.,.. September ,. December . ... 1947: September _„ October .., November December , , 1948* January February. -_ - *. .« March .., t» April -»-------^-» -. ._._,. May _-_-- --.-»--.__-_--.- „...,. June »„--«.-._.-„ July ,. August e ,,-„ „ - ,. September P.„ October 8fl „„ November _„ . December 6 OF ECONOMIC 8,023 8,917 9,995 11, 049 12, 073 12, 435 12, 621 12, 953 13, 384 13, 751 14, 040 13, 907 13, 951 14, 065 14, 080 14, 145 14, 531 14, 576 14, 779 14, 562 7,796 8, 164 8,876 9,258 10, 264 10, 292 10, 426 10, 620 10, 464 10, 463 10, 658 10, 891 10, 620 10, 862 10, 857 10, 893 10, 968 10, 894 10, 771 11,074 177 210 226 274 232 252 273 285 289 306 313 309 297 284 273 268 275 282 304 306 255 275 272 276 294 279 302 303 286 286 285 306 310 312 316 311 312 mm 287 ;MM» 8 Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for month and retail book value of inventories, end of month. 6 Preliminary estimate. Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reeeryp gvstem. Not adjusted for seasonal variation. * Adjusted for seasonal variation. 3 Book value, end of month. * Total for month. EXPORTS AND IMPORTS Exports fell 20 percent in November to the lowest level in two years as the maritime strike hit the East Coast. The value of imports fell 10 percent. MILLIONS OF MILLIONS DOLLARS OF DOLLARS 1,600 I,60C MONTHLY AVERAGES 1,400 1,400 1,200 I,2OO 1,000 - 1,000 — 600 800 600 400 400 — 200 1943 1936-38 J 1945 F M A M J J A S O N D * RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS, AND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED ** RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S AREAS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY [Millions of dollars] Exports 1 Period 1936-38 monthly average 1943 monthly average . 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947: August-. September October November December .__ . ... ' ; \ , , 1948: January . February . . . March April '. : May June .. July August - 1 J . ' . ; September October November .. - _ _ .. '..:.• » . .. - ;.. . .. ; _ . . ... Imports * Excess of exports 247 1,080 877 849 1, 278 207 282 346 410 478 40 798 531 439 801 1, 265 1, 185 1,304 1, 189 1, 172 400 473 492 455 603 865 712 812 734 569 1, 092 1, 086 1, 138 1, 120 1, 102 1,014 1, 020 986 926 1,020 819 545 582 666 528 549 616 558 598 558 597 550 546 504 473 592 553 398 461 387 368 423 269 Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas Recorded general merchandise imports. Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 8 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis O N D 200 PURCHASING POWER NATIONAL INCOME A steady rise throughout 1948 brought total national income for the year to 224 billion dollars, about 10 percent higher than for 1947. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 250 ANNUAL TOTALS EASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES TOTAL NATIONAL INCOME 200 200 CORPORATE PROFITS AND •" vSSvXvXvSS INVENTORY VALUATION : & 3$$£%fc" "'"^^' PROPRIETORS' AND RENTAL ' I NGQMt. ISO 150 100 IHP COMPENSATION OF illllllilEMPLOYEES II 1944 J939 1 1945 2 3 4 1948 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVtSERS [Billions of dollars] Total national income Period 1939 1944 1945 1946 1947 1 1948 _ 72.5 182.4 181.7 179.3 202.5 224. 0 Compensation of employees Corporate profProprietors' its and invenand rental Net interest tory valuation income adjustment 47.8 121.1 122.9 117.3 127.5 137.8 14.7 34.1 36.0 41.8 46.0 50.7 5.8 24.0 19.8 16.8 24.7 30. 7 4.2 3.1 3.0 3.4 4.3 47 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1947: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 197. 3 199. 3 200.6 212.8 125.0 125.3 127.6 132.2 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter l Fourth quarter 215. 1 221.7 227.4 2 () 133.7 134.2 140.6 142.8 1 2 : 46.4 44.6 44.4 48.6 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.5 21.8 25.2 24.3 27.5 ,50. 6 51.8 50.2 50,3 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 26.2 30.9 31.6 Preliminary estimate. Not available. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce {except fourth quarter, 1948). (2) CORPORATE PROFITS Corporate profits in the first 3 quarters of 1948 ran above the 1947 levels. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 40 ANNUAL TOTALS ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 3 0 . I 0 1939 1929 1943 * NO ALLOWANCE FOR INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT. ** Preliminary estimate. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS OF COMMERCE. [Billions of dollars] Corporate profits before taxes Period 1929 1939 1943 1946 1947 l 1948 . -. . . 9.8 6.5 24.5 21.8 29.8 34.0 Corporate tax liability 1.4 1.5 14.2 9.0 11.7 13.2 Corporate profits after taxes Total 8.4 5.0 10.4 12.8 18.1 20.8 Dividend payments 5.8 3.8 4.5 5.6 6.9 7.6 Undistributed profits 2.6 1,2 5.9 7.2 11.2 13.2 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1947: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948: First quarter.. Second quarter Third quarter 1 ... . . 28.9 28.8 29. 1 32.4 11.4 11.3 11. 4 12.7 17.5 17.5 17.7 19.7 6.4 6.7 6.9 7.1 11.1 10.8 10.8 12.6 31.4 33.4 35.5 12.2 13.0 13.8 19.2 20.4 21.7 7.3 7.3 7.7 11.9 13.1 14.0 Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment. See p. 19 for profits before taxes and inventory valuation adjustment. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. PERSONAL INCOME Total personal income continued its steady rise in December; salaries, wages and other labor income showed a decline while other components increased. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 250 ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 200 150 PROPR ETORS' ANcf RENTAL YNCOv 100 1939 SOURCE: 1944 J 1945 F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. [Billions of dollars] Total personal income Period 1939 1944 1945 1946 1947__ 19481 . 72. 6 164.5 170. 3 178. 1 195.2 213. 6 Salaries, wages, Proprietors' Dividends Social security and other and rental and interest and GI paylabor income income ments 45. 7 116. 1 116.8 111.4 121.9 134.3 14. 7 34. 1 36.0 41.8 46.0 50.9 9.2 10.6 11.4 13.5 15. 6 17.3 3.0 3.6 6.2 11.4 11.7 11. 1 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1947: November December 201. 4 207.7 127.4 129. 3 47.1 51.3 16.1 16.2 10.8 10.9 1948: January _ _ February __ __ March _ _ __ April May **•> __- — June July August _ September. October ___ Novemberl _ _ Decenifeer __ 208. 8 206. 4 205. 7 208. 6 20Q: 2 214. 4 214. 8 216.7 217. 3 218. 5 219. 9 221. 0 129. 3 128. 8 128.5 128. 8 131. 0 133. 4 135. 5 138.0 138. 8 139. 6 140. 1 139. 5 51. 8 49. 6 48. 4 51. 2 50.4 53. 0 51. 2 50. 3 50. 4 50. 7 51.4 52.3 16. 5 16. 6 16. 6 16. 7 16. 8 16. 9 17. 0 17. 3 17.5 17. 8 18. 1 18. 4 11. 2 11.4 12.2 11. 9 11.0 11. 1 .11.1 11. 1 10. 6 10.4 10. 3 10.8 1 ; Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. OND CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING At the end of the year consumers' saving was apparently running at an annual rate of about 15 billion dollars — considerably more than the estimates for 1946 and 1947. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 200 200 I 50 I 00 1939 SOURCE: 1940 1941 1942 1943 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars] Disposable personal income * Period 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943. 1944 1945 1946 1947 2 1948 _ 70.2 75.7 92.0 116.2 131.6 145.6 149.4 159.2 173.6 190.4 _ _ _ _ Less: Personal consumption expenditures Equals: Personal saving 67.5 72. 1 82.3 90.8 101.6 111.4 122.8 147.4 164.8 176.8 2.7 3.7 9.8 25.4 30.0 34.2 26. 6 11.8 8.8 13.6 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1947: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter. Fourth quarter 1948: First quarter.. Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter 2 1 2 . . . . . ...... .. .. _. 169.7 168.2 175. 0 180.9 158.1 164. 2 165.6 171. 1 11.6 4.1 9.4 9.7 184.1 188.2 193. 7 195. 4 172.1 176.5 178. 5 180. 0 12.0 11.7 15.2 15.4 Income less taxes. Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because oFroundmg. Source: Department of Commerce (except fourth quarter, 1948). PER CAPITA INCOME The last quarter of 1948 registered a moderate gain in the real purchasing power of consumers, reflecting mainly a reversal of the upward trend in consumers' prices. DOLLARS DOLLARS 1,600 1,600 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1947 DOLLARS* 1,200 800 CURRENT DOLLARS 400 400 I 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 I PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES, I I I 2 3 1946 I 2 3 1947 2 3 1948 *• CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED 0r THE CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE "1 SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Per capita disposable personal income 1 Current 1947 dollars * dollars . ... $536 $859 574 913 „ ... 691 1,047 863 1, 169 964 1,217 1,054 1,295 1,070 1,280 1,127 1,258 1,205 1,205 1,299 1,208 Period 1939 1940 1941 1942 .... 1943 1944 _ 1945. 1946 1947 4 1948 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1947: First quarter . Second quarter Third quarter. Fourth quarter 1948: First quarter , Second quarter Third quarter 4 Fourth quarter 1 2 3 . -._. _ Income less taxes. Current dollars1 divided by the con? mum The consumers price index hun in-.-n m December 1941-February 1947. This w l j n U M M unadjusted index will be found on page 'J, 4 Preliminary estimate. Sources: Department of Cominorw mul I »* ,_ $1, 186 1, 170 1,212 1,246 1,263 1,286 1,318 1,326 Consumers' price index3 1947=100 62.4 62.9 66. 0 73.8 79.2 81.4 83. 6 89.6 100.0 107.5 Not adjusted for seasonal variation $1,218 1,193 1,201 1,203 1,201 1,202 1,206 1,222 97.4 98. 1 100.9 103. 6 105. 2 107. 0 109.3 108. 5 mi*** on the base 1947=100. • djusted to take account of the understatement from line with the report of the Mitchell Committee. The it of Labor (except fourth quarter, 1948). 23 1 AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS Hourly earnings continued to rise slightly in November except for bituminous cool mining. Preliminary data for December show a continuation of this movement in manufacturing industries. DOLL* RS PER HOUR DOLLARS PER HOUR RETAIL TRADE MANUFACTURING 1.50 1.50 1947 DOLLARS* 1.00 1947 DOLLARS* "^^r* , 1.00 .— — —-~^T CUR RENT DOLLARS CUF IR-ENT' DOLLARS .50 O .50 i i i i i 1 i ij i i 1946 ! 1 t 1 1 1 1 [ 1 1 t l i 1 i i 1 1 i i i l 1947 O 1948 , , i >< 1 M ' « 1946 BITUMINOUS COAL MINING PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION . 2.OO 2.OO 1947 DOLLARS* ^_^~«~~^-^ 1947 DOLLARS* ' L-***-*^- ^"""* 1.50 I.5O J --% CUF RENT DOLLARS RENT DOLLARS —J CUF I.OO 1.00 .50 .50 0 i i ; t i 1 i i i i i 1948 i i i i , 1 , i i ii 1947 , , ! , , ! i i i i i 1 r i i i l 1946 1947 1 1 , 1 , 1 . , 1 1 , 0 i » i i i 1 i ) i i i i i t i : 1 i i i it 1946 1947 1948 t f 1 i t 1 ! ! l t l 1948 * cuffffentr ooiiAffS DIVIDED sr CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX OK THE BASE 19471100, SOURCE-' DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC AQVISERS [Selected industries] Manufacturing Period 1939 monthly average1941 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average1946 monthly average 1947 monthly fvv^rfigp, . , , 1947: September October November December. 1948: January February March- April May June . July Current dollars - - ._ September October * 4 November - "DfinRTnher * _ $0. 633 .729 1.019 1.023 1.084 1. 221 1.249 1. 258 1.268 1.278 1.285 1.287 1.289 1.292 1.301 1.316 1.332 1.349 1.362 1.366 1.371 1.378 1947 dollars > $1. 014 1. 105 1.252 1.224 1. 210 1.221 1.215 1.224 1.225 1.219 1. 213 1.225 1.231 1.217 1. 216 1.222 1.222 1.232 1.244 1. 254 1. 269 1. 281 Retail trade Current dollars $0. 536 .568 .724 .773 .878 .991 1.012 1.013 1.025 1.016 1.044 1.050 1.044 1.055 1.064 1.070 1.077 1. 080 1.086 1.080 1. 084 1947 dollars * $0. 859 .861 .889 .925 .980 .991 .984 .985 .990 .969 .986 .999 .997 .993 . 994 . 994 .988 .986 .992 .992 1.004 Bituminous coal mining $0. 386 .993 1. 186 1.240 1. 401 1.644 1. 819 1.798 1.851 1.826 1. 847 1.826 1.842 VI. 821 1.841 1. 850 1.936 1.967 1. 966 1.959 1.951 i Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects. Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1947= 100. See note 3 to table on page 23. Source: Department of Labor. 1 1947 dollars* Current dollars $1.420 1. 505 1.457 1.483 1; 564 1. 644 1. 769 1.749 1.788 1.742 1.744 1.737 1. 759 * 1. 715 1. 721 1.718 1. 776 1. 796 - 1.795 1. 799 1.806 a Based 1 Private building construction » Current dollars $0- 932 1.010 1. 319 1.379 1.478 1.676 1.723 1.743 1.765 1, 774 1. 781 1.806 1.805 1.818 1.835 1.858 1.890 1.901 1.919 1.920 1.937 1947 dollars * $1. 494 1.530 1.620 1.650 1.650 1.676 1.676 1.696 1.705 1.693 1.682 1.718 1.724 1.712 1.715 1.725 1.734 1.736 1. 753 1.763 1.794 on pay period during coal stoppage. Preliminary estimate. AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS The general decrease in average weekly earnings in November resulted from shorter hours of work. data for December show that weekly earnings in manufacturing increased to a new nigh of about $55. 1Dreliminary DOLt.ARS PER WEEK DOt t AH', f t M WtEK RETAIL TRADE MANUFACTURING GO 60 CURRENT DOLLARS. X^^-^l *^--"* ~ _*-—^— 40 CURRENT DOLLARS ^ 40 1947 DOLLARS* - -- \ -=^rf.'g"S'"^^ B-afc-^-^-^^^^rr^: ft * * 1947 DOLLARS 20 20 . i i t i t 1i t i i i 1947 1 1 J 1 1 1 1 I1LII 1 I__J 0 1946 I 1 I I I 1 1 1 i 11 0 i 1 i i 1 j ^ I.J.JLJL 1948 1946 i i i i i ( i i i t i ** 1 I 1 1 ! 1947 1 1 1 1 I 1 1948 PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION BITUMINOUS COAL MINING 100 !00 80 ' 60 ,^ /•" v CUR 80 RENT DOLLARS ±-A .*"*•—y X*s-^* // -Vi 1947 DOLLARS V-^i CURRENT DOLLARS ^~^—i 60 ** 1947 DOLLARS* * 40 40 20 20 0 ! 1 1 1 1 LJ I U 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 I 1 1 ! I i iiii1iiiii 1947 1948 1946 j 0 * EARNINGS DATA DISTORTED DURING TH£S£ MONTHS BECAUSE OF WORK STOPPAGES OK VAC 6TIONS, 1 1 1 1 l 1 1 1 l 1 1 1946 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 1947 i 1 1 11 I I I I ! I 1948 X- * ' CURRENT DOLLARS DlVIPtO 0r CONSUMER $' PRICE INDEX ON BAS? OF 1947 : IOO SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Selected industries] Manufacturing Period 1939 monthly average,. 1941 monthly average.. 1944 monthly average.. 1945 monthly average.. 1946 monthly average.. 1947 monthly average.. 1947: September October _.. November _ _ „ December— 1948* January February March April May June .. July August September October 4 4 November 4 December 1 8 Current dollars $23. 86 29.58 46.08 44.39 43.74 49.25 50.47 51. 05 51. 29 52.69 52.07 51.75 52.07 51. 79 51. 86 52. 85 52. 95 54. 05 54.18 54. 50 54.47 55.01 1947 dollars * $38. 24 44.82 56. 61 53. 10 48.82 49.25 49. 10 49.66 49.56 50.28 49. 17 49.24 49.73 48.77 48. 47 49.07 48. 58 49.36 49.48 50.05 50.43 51. 12 Retail trade Current dollars $21. 17 21.94 26.58 28.31 32.55 36.67 37.06 36.74 37. 14 37.51 37.62 38.33 38.89 39.27 39.84 40.52 41. 19 41. 19 40.48 40. 32 39. 67 1947 dollars * $33. 93 33.24 32. 65 33. 86 36. 33 36.67 36.05 35.74 35.88 35.79 35. 52 36.47 37. 14 36. 98 37. 23 37.62 37. 79 37. 62 36. 97 37.02 36.73 Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects. Current dollars divided by consumers1 price index on the base 1947=100. See note 3 to table on page 23. Source: Department of Labor. Bituminous coal mining Current dollars $23. 88 30. 86 51. 27 52. 25 58. 03 66. 86 71. 19 71. 91 71. 77 75. 22 75.78 70. 54 74.84 3 49. 53 74. 08 73.87 67. 62 78. 10 74.98 76. 40 73. 52 1 4 1947 dollars* $38. 27 46.76 62. 99 62. 50 64. 77 66.86 69.25 69.95 69.34 71.77 71. 56 67. 12 71. 48 3 46. 64 69. 23 68. 59 62. 04 71. 32 68.47 70. 16 68. 07 Private building construction * Current dollars $30. 39 35. 14 52. 18 53.73 56. 24 63.30 65.36 66.36 64.55 67.31 66.28 66.31 66.89 67.31 68. 13 70.49 71.38 71.89 72. 06 71.79 71.02 1947 dollars * $48. 70 53.24 64. 10 64.27 62. 77 63 30 63. 58 64. 55 62.37 64.23 62. 59 63.09 63.89 63. 38 63. 67 65.45 65.49 65. 65 65. 81 65.92 65.76 Based on pay period during coal stoppage. Preliminary estimate. 9J5 FARM INCOME Gosh farm income continued seasonally downward in December. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4 M J J A S O N 1939 ,1948 * CASH RECEIPTS FROM MARKET! ** FARM INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE INDEX Of PRICES PAID, INTEREST, AND TAXIS ON THE BASE 1939 s IOO, COUNCIL. OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. Period 1939 monthly average. ... .... 1941 monthly average ... 1942 monthly average . . 1943 monthly average-.-. .... . 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average ., .... ... . _ 1946 monthly average* . .... - . .. 1947 monthly average-4 .... . . 1948 monthly average 1947; December.. .. . .. 1948: January ...... February. . . . . ... . March . . ........ . ..... April May . June July _ August . „_ September October November 4 December 1 Includes 1 Farm income (millions of current dollars) » Prices paid by farmers (incl. interest and taxes) 1939= 100» 723 981 1,340 1, 678 1,753 1, 857 2 136 2, 542 2, 609 2 843 2 571 1 862 1, 932 2, 075 2 119 2,437 2,693 2,722 3, 132 3,714 3, 314 2.740 100. 0 106. 5 121. 0 130. 6 136. 3 138. 7 155. 6 186. 3 201. 1 197. 6 202. 4 200. 0 199. 2 200. 8 201.6 202.4 202. 4 202.4 201. 6 200.8 199.2 200.0 Farm income (millions of 1939 dollars) » cash farm income from marketings and Government payments. Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1939=100. , 1^,^ |ncome jn current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, and taxes, 1939« 400. 4 Preliminary. Source: Department off Agriculture. 723 921 1, 107 1, 285 1,286 1,339 1,373 1,364 1, 298 1, 439 1,270 931 970 1,033 1,051 1,204 1, 331 1,345 1,554 1,850 1,664 1;370 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Expenditures for both durable and nondurable goods increased less in 1948 than in 1947. Expenditures for services, however, increased more than in the preceding year. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ! 200 ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL TOTALS I 50 150 100 50 1944 1939 1945 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (except fourth quarter of 1948). [Billions of dollars] Personal consumption expenditures Period Nondurable goods Total 1939 1944 . 1945.. 19461947.. 1948 i 67.5 111.4 122.8 147.4 164.8 176.8 35.3 67.5 75.4 87.5 96.5 102. 7 Durable goods 6.7 6.9 8.3 16.2 21.0 22.7 Services 25.5 37.0 39.2 43.6 47.3 51.3 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1947: First quarter . Second quarter Third quarter .. Fourth quarter 158.1 164.2 165. 6 171. 1 92.5 96.3 96.8 100.2 19.6 21.1 21. 1 22.1 46.0 46.7 47.7 48.8 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter * 172. 1 176.5 178.5 180.0 101.2 103.2 102.9 103. 5 21.2 22.6 23.6 23.5 49.7 50.6 51.9 53.0 1 Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except fourth quarter, 1948). 27 CONSUMER CREDIT Consumer credit, increasing more than $600 million during December, reached $16 billion by the end of the year. The rise was attributable largely to seasonal increases in charge accounts and instalment credit. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 16 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 16 14 12 10 :- 2 1929 1939 1941 1943 END OF YEAR A M -J J A A M J J A S 0 1946 S 0 N D J F M A M J J 194? A S 0 N D 1948 END OF MONTH SINGLE PAYMENJ LOANS AND SERVICE CREDIT SOURCE: Board of Go< [Billions of dollars] End of period Total consumer credit outstanding 1929 1939 1941 1943. 1945 1946 1947 3 1948 1947: December 1948: January February __ March .- . -April May June July August September . . October November December 3 7. 6 8. 0 9. 9 5. 3 6. 6 10. 1 13. 4 16. 0 13. 4 13. 1 13. 1 13. 5 13. 8 14.0 14.3 14. 4 14. 5 14. 8 15. 1 15. 3 16.0 _ . .. .. • . . - Instalment credit * 3.2 4. 4 5. 9 1.9 2. 3 3.9 6. 2 8. 2 6.2 6.2 6. 3 6. 6 6. 8 7.0 7.2 7. 4 7. 6 7.8 7. 8 7. 9 8. 2 Charge accounts 1. 7 1. 5 1. 8 1. 5 2. 0 3. 1 3. 6 3. 9 3.6 3.2 3. 1 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.2 3. 1 3.2 3.5 3. 6 3. 9 Other consumer credit 2 2.7 2. 0 2.2 1.9 2. 3 3. 1 3. 6 3. 9 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3. 8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3. 9 1 Includes automobile and other sale credit and repair and modernization loans insured by Federal Housing Administration. 2 Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit. 8 Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE In November end December, bonk loans increased of o rote only slightly less than that of the comparable period of 1947. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 125 125 TOTAL (AH commercial banks) 100 100 75 75 50 50 25 25 1 J I92S !939 1945 END OF YEAR F M A M J J A S O N D J F 1947 M A M J J A S O N D * 1948 END OF MONTH J F M A M J J A S O N D 1949 PR EL IMINA RY ES JIMA TE SOURCE: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Council of Economic Advisers [Billions of dollars] Investments Total loans and investments Bank loans 49.5 40.7 124.0 114.0 116. 4 114. 3 36.0 17.2 26. 1 31. 1 38. 1 42. 7 13.5 23.4 97. 9 82.9 78.3 71.6 16.3 90.6 74.8 69.3 62.5 9.0 9.1 1947: December 116.3 3a i 78.2 69.2 9.0 1948: January .. February March April. May ~ June -- - - _ July _ August September October November 1 _ December 116.6 115. 5 113. 6 114. 3 114.5 113.9 114.8 115. 1 113.6 114. 1 114.2 114. 3 38.2 38.7 38. 9 38.8 39.4 39.9 40. 1 40.6 41.7 41. 6 42. 3 42. 7 78.4 76.9 74.7 75.5 75.1 74.0 74.6 74.5 71.9 72.5 71.9 71. 6 69.4 67.9 65.5 66.3 65.9 64.8 65.3 65.1 62.5 63.3 62.8 62. 5 9.0 9.0 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.2 End of period 1929 1939 1945 1946 1947 1948 * 1 .. _ __ _ . _ -- -- - -- - » .- _ _._ _ _ Total U.S. Government securities 4.8 Other securities 8.7 7. 1 7.3 8. 1 9. 1 9. 1 Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. SniirnA! Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. OQ MONEY SUPPLY Demand and time deposits rose in December resulting in a money supply about equal to the record level set in 1947. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S 200 2001 TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY { EXCLUDING U.S.GOVT. DEPOSITS ) J75 175 150 150 IE5 125 100 100 75 50 50 25 25 CURRENCY _ . , . _ , „ '&W$?M$W$$\ 1929 1933 1939 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J AS OND 1946 1946 END OF Y E A R 1947 END OF MONTH S O U R C E : B O A R D OF G O V E R N O R S OF THE FEDERAL R E S E R V E SYSTEM 1948 COUNCIL OF E C O N O M I C A D V I S O R S [Billions of dollars] Total money supply End of period 1929. 1939 1941. 1943.. 1945.. 1946. 1947.3 1948 1947: December. . . 1948: January . February March , April ,. May June. July August September .. October November . December 3 1 ... . ... , . . . . , . ..... . .....'.. . . . . . . . .. .. 54.6 63.3 76.3 112.3 150.9 164.0 170. 0 168.8 170.0 168.9 167. 1 164.0 165.0 165.2 165.7 166.2 166.7 166.9 168.0 167.9 168.8 Currency outside banks 3.6 6. 4 9.6 18.8 26.5 26. 7 26. 5 25. 7 26.5 25.8 25.7 25.6 25.4 25.4 25.6 25. 5 25.6 25.7 25.7 25. 9 25. 7 Adjusted demand deposits * 22. 8 29, 8 39. 0 60. 8 75.9 83. 3 87. 1 85. 8 87. 1 86.6 84.6 81.5 82.7 82.8 82.7 83. 4 83.8 83.9 85.0 85.0 85. 8 Time deposits 2 28.2 27 1 27. 7 32. 7 48. 5 54.0 56. 4 57.3 56. 4 56.5 56.8 56.9 56.9 57.0 57.4 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.0 57.3 Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection. 2 Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System, 1 Preliminary estimate. NOTE,—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC The cash surplus wcs sharply reduced in the 2nd half of 1948 and would disappear in 1949 under present tax rates and proposed expenditures. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 50 50 40 30 30 20 Cash payments Cosh f receipts | \m 1947 1946 1939 1st half* 1948 2d half* 1948 1949 Estimate 15 •Mb + 10 • H Surplus +5 '%. - in!:::?! " | _• """"" tilMil^—. Deficit l**i*J -5 1939 1947 1946 1st half* 1948 YEARS CALENDAR SOURCES: TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND 2d half* 1948 BUREAU OF THE BUDGET. 1949 Estimate COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC AOVISEHS [Billions of dollars; annual rates, seasonally adjusted] Calendar year 1939 1946 1947 1948: First half Second half 1949 estimate 2 ___ _ - _ ~- -__-. 1 - _ --- __ _ __ Federal cash receipts Federal cash payments Surplus (+) or deficit (— ) 6. 6 41. 5 44. 3 9. 5 41. 3 38. 6 —2 9 + 2 +57 47. 6 + 42. 3 35. 1 38. 7 43. 7 44. 3 + 12 5 +36 _ e 1 2 Based on incomplete data. Based on present and proposed legislation. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget. o For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, XT. 8. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D. O. Price 16 cents