Full text of Economic Indicators : December 2018
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116th Congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators DECEMBER 2018 (Includes data available as of January 25, 2019) Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 2019 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) Senate House of Representatives COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Kevin A. Hassett, Chairman Richard V. Burkhauser, Member Tomas J. Philipson, Member [Public Law 120—81st Congress; Chapter 237—1st Session] JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. R es. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled “Economic Indicators” Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled “Economic Indicators,” and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts prepared under the direction of the Mail and Multimedia Division, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Monthly issues of Economic Indicators in PDF form, and tables in Excel, are available online at: www.gpo.gov/economicindicators To subscribe to the print edition, $58.00 per year ($81.20 outside the United States), contact the U.S. Government Publishing Office at 202-512-1800, www.gpo.gov/economicindicators, or: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE MAIL STOP: IDCC WASHINGTON, DC 20402-9328 ii TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Gross Domestic Product In the third quarter of 2018, according to revised estimates, real gross domestic product (GDP) in chained (2012) dollars rose 3.4 percent (annual rate), current dollar GDP rose 4.9 percent, and the chained price index rose 1.8 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 20,800 20,800 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 20,400 20,400 20,000 20,000 19,600 19,600 19,200 19,200 18,800 18,800 18,400 18,400 18,000 18,000 17,600 17,600 GDP IN CURRENT DOLLARS 17,200 17,200 16,800 16,800 GDP IN CHAINED (2012) DOLLARS 16,400 16,400 16,000 16,000 15,600 15,600 15,200 15,200 14,800 14,800 14,400 14,400 14,000 14,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 2017 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2016: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2017: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2018: I ��������������� II ��������������� III r ������������ Gross domestic product 14,712.8 14,448.9 14,992.1 15,542.6 16,197.0 16,784.9 17,521.7 18,219.3 18,707.2 19,485.4 18,409.1 18,640.7 18,799.6 18,979.2 19,162.6 19,359.1 19,588.1 19,831.8 20,041.0 20,411.9 20,658.2 Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment 9,976.3 9,842.2 10,185.8 10,641.1 11,006.8 11,317.2 11,824.0 12,294.5 12,766.9 13,321.4 12,526.5 12,706.5 12,845.2 12,989.4 13,114.1 13,233.2 13,359.1 13,579.2 13,679.6 13,875.6 14,050.5 2,477.6 1,929.7 2,165.5 2,332.6 2,621.8 2,826.0 3,038.9 3,212.0 3,169.9 3,368.0 3,142.1 3,152.2 3,157.7 3,227.6 3,278.6 3,337.9 3,413.9 3,441.4 3,543.8 3,579.5 3,710.7 Exports and imports of goods and services Net exports –723.1 –396.5 –513.9 –579.5 –568.6 –490.8 –508.3 –521.4 –520.6 –578.4 –522.2 –496.2 –503.7 –560.2 –576.6 –571.9 –557.3 –607.9 –639.2 –549.8 –653.5 Federal Exports 1,837.1 1,582.0 1,846.3 2,103.0 2,191.3 2,273.4 2,371.0 2,265.0 2,217.6 2,350.2 2,165.6 2,206.6 2,252.5 2,245.6 2,294.1 2,316.3 2,358.3 2,432.0 2,477.4 2,568.7 2,538.6 Imports 2,560.1 1,978.4 2,360.2 2,682.5 2,759.9 2,764.2 2,879.3 2,786.5 2,738.1 2,928.6 2,687.8 2,702.7 2,756.3 2,805.8 2,870.7 2,888.2 2,915.5 3,039.9 3,116.6 3,118.5 3,192.1 Chart 1 - Dec 2018 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Total 2,982.0 3,073.5 3,154.6 3,148.4 3,137.0 3,132.4 3,167.0 3,234.2 3,291.0 3,374.4 3,262.7 3,278.2 3,300.5 3,322.4 3,346.4 3,360.0 3,372.3 3,419.1 3,456.8 3,506.6 3,550.5 Total 1,150.6 1,218.2 1,297.9 1,298.9 1,286.5 1,226.6 1,214.2 1,220.9 1,232.2 1,265.2 1,223.5 1,225.4 1,235.9 1,244.1 1,252.4 1,264.0 1,263.8 1,280.6 1,294.8 1,313.0 1,329.5 National defense Nondefense 750.3 787.6 828.0 834.0 814.2 764.2 742.5 729.5 727.3 743.9 724.8 722.4 730.6 731.5 734.9 746.7 743.1 750.7 759.0 772.6 784.3 400.2 430.6 469.9 465.0 472.4 462.4 471.6 491.3 504.9 521.3 498.7 502.9 505.3 512.7 517.5 517.3 520.7 529.8 535.8 540.4 545.2 State and local 1,831.4 1,855.3 1,856.7 1,849.4 1,850.5 1,905.8 1,952.9 2,013.3 2,058.8 2,109.2 2,039.2 2,052.9 2,064.7 2,078.3 2,093.9 2,096.0 2,108.5 2,138.5 2,162.0 2,193.5 2,221.0 Final Addendum: Gross sales of Gross domestic domestic purchases national 1 product product 14,742.1 14,599.7 14,938.1 15,496.3 16,125.8 16,680.3 17,437.3 18,090.6 18,678.2 19,459.9 18,361.1 18,615.6 18,799.2 18,937.1 19,154.6 19,342.1 19,532.7 19,810.4 20,004.7 20,422.3 20,565.5 15,435.9 14,845.4 15,506.0 16,122.0 16,765.6 17,275.6 18,030.0 18,740.7 19,227.8 20,063.8 18,931.3 19,136.9 19,303.4 19,539.4 19,739.1 19,931.1 20,145.3 20,439.7 20,680.2 20,961.7 21,311.7 14,867.5 14,590.9 15,187.8 15,779.0 16,429.3 17,015.6 17,763.4 18,445.5 18,922.5 19,729.1 18,613.3 18,853.3 18,997.5 19,226.0 19,395.3 19,575.4 19,843.0 20,102.6 20,309.8 20,678.9 20,913.3 1 GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 1 Real Gross Domestic Product [Billions of chained (2012) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2016: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2017: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2018: I ��������������� II ��������������� III r ������������ Gross private domestic investment Personal Gross conChange domestic sumption Nonresi- Resiin product expendi- dential dential fixed fixed private tures investinvestinvenment ment tories 15,604.7 15,208.8 15,598.8 15,840.7 16,197.0 16,495.4 16,899.8 17,386.7 17,659.2 18,050.7 17,523.4 17,622.5 17,706.7 17,784.2 17,863.0 17,995.2 18,120.8 18,223.8 18,324.0 18,511.6 18,665.0 10,592.8 10,460.0 10,643.0 10,843.8 11,006.8 11,166.9 11,494.3 11,921.9 12,248.2 12,558.7 12,111.8 12,214.1 12,294.3 12,372.7 12,427.6 12,515.9 12,584.9 12,706.4 12,722.8 12,842.0 12,953.3 1,994.2 1,704.3 1,781.0 1,935.4 2,118.5 2,206.0 2,357.4 2,399.7 2,411.2 2,538.1 2,380.9 2,403.3 2,430.3 2,430.4 2,486.5 2,530.8 2,552.3 2,582.7 2,654.0 2,710.1 2,727.0 504.6 395.3 383.0 382.5 432.0 485.5 504.2 555.3 591.3 611.1 590.9 589.4 586.9 597.9 613.8 605.2 604.5 620.7 615.3 613.2 607.7 –32.7 –177.3 57.3 46.7 71.2 108.7 86.6 129.0 23.4 22.5 50.7 17.8 –14.1 39.1 –2.4 11.9 64.4 16.1 30.3 –36.8 89.8 Exports and imports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total –661.6 –484.8 –565.9 –568.1 –568.6 –532.8 –577.7 –724.9 –786.2 –858.7 –777.9 –764.1 –766.3 –836.7 –845.5 –844.1 –845.9 –899.2 –902.4 –841.0 –949.7 1,925.4 1,763.8 1,977.9 2,119.0 2,191.3 2,269.6 2,367.0 2,380.6 2,378.1 2,450.1 2,351.1 2,370.9 2,406.4 2,384.2 2,413.3 2,435.0 2,456.1 2,495.9 2,517.8 2,574.2 2,542.2 2,587.1 2,248.6 2,543.8 2,687.1 2,759.9 2,802.4 2,944.7 3,105.5 3,164.4 3,308.7 3,129.0 3,135.0 3,172.6 3,220.9 3,258.8 3,279.1 3,302.0 3,395.1 3,420.1 3,415.2 3,491.9 3,195.6 3,307.3 3,307.2 3,203.3 3,137.0 3,061.0 3,032.3 3,088.5 3,132.5 3,130.4 3,133.3 3,126.7 3,134.4 3,135.6 3,129.6 3,130.0 3,121.8 3,140.2 3,152.2 3,171.8 3,192.0 National Nondefense defense Total 1,218.8 1,293.0 1,346.1 1,311.1 1,286.5 1,215.3 1,183.2 1,183.0 1,187.8 1,196.4 1,188.6 1,183.9 1,188.7 1,190.1 1,190.0 1,197.1 1,193.2 1,205.2 1,213.1 1,224.0 1,234.7 791.5 836.7 861.3 842.9 814.2 759.6 728.0 713.5 709.2 713.8 711.7 705.8 710.7 708.5 707.9 717.6 712.3 717.5 722.8 733.3 742.2 427.3 456.3 484.8 468.3 472.4 455.6 455.0 469.1 478.0 481.9 476.3 477.4 477.3 480.9 481.4 478.9 480.3 487.0 489.5 490.1 492.0 AddenFinal Gross dum: sales of domestic Gross domestic purchases 1 national product product State and local 1,978.7 2,015.6 1,961.3 1,892.2 1,850.5 1,845.3 1,848.1 1,903.9 1,942.8 1,932.3 1,942.9 1,940.9 1,943.8 1,943.6 1,937.7 1,931.3 1,926.9 1,933.5 1,937.7 1,946.6 1,956.3 15,639.7 15,373.0 15,546.6 15,796.5 16,125.8 16,386.2 16,809.9 17,253.6 17,617.5 18,008.7 17,459.7 17,586.2 17,696.3 17,728.0 17,841.9 17,963.6 18,042.6 18,186.5 18,274.4 18,515.9 18,562.1 16,270.7 15,698.9 16,164.7 16,408.8 16,765.6 17,028.6 17,475.9 18,099.6 18,428.0 18,881.0 18,284.9 18,372.8 18,457.8 18,596.4 18,681.9 18,813.5 18,941.2 19,087.4 19,190.2 19,324.8 19,574.7 15,771.6 15,359.4 15,803.9 16,081.7 16,429.3 16,722.3 17,135.1 17,608.3 17,867.8 18,284.0 17,723.3 17,829.1 17,898.4 18,020.4 18,087.6 18,203.6 18,364.1 18,480.8 18,581.5 18,766.4 18,908.0 1 GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Note: Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2012) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). Chained Price Indexes For Gross Domestic Product [Index numbers, 2012=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Period 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2016: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2017: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2018: I ��������������� II ��������������� III r ������������ Gross domestic product 94.264 94.999 96.109 98.112 100.000 101.773 103.687 104.757 105.899 107.932 105.043 105.738 106.110 106.703 107.233 107.553 108.134 108.807 109.348 110.172 110.669 Personal consumption expenditures Total 94.180 94.094 95.705 98.131 100.000 101.346 102.868 103.126 104.235 106.073 103.428 104.036 104.485 104.989 105.528 105.735 106.156 106.873 107.524 108.052 108.474 Goods Services 96.122 93.812 95.183 98.773 100.000 99.407 98.939 95.889 94.340 94.632 94.193 94.470 94.259 94.440 94.964 94.298 94.462 94.804 95.324 95.413 95.329 Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 2 Gross private domestic investment 93.235 94.231 95.957 97.814 100.000 102.316 104.852 106.823 109.325 111.984 108.171 108.953 109.751 110.425 110.972 111.644 112.201 113.120 113.840 114.606 115.302 Nonresidential fixed 99.832 99.184 97.416 98.559 100.000 100.251 101.565 102.081 101.281 101.962 101.215 101.341 101.157 101.413 101.559 101.818 102.147 102.325 102.501 103.006 103.404 Residential fixed 102.249 98.671 98.317 99.049 100.000 105.054 111.106 114.100 118.185 123.495 115.804 117.326 119.058 120.551 121.446 122.955 124.320 125.258 127.938 130.216 131.373 Exports and imports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Exports 95.410 89.694 93.348 99.242 100.000 100.168 100.169 95.146 93.248 95.923 92.116 93.073 93.612 94.192 95.071 95.135 96.032 97.455 98.411 99.799 99.870 Imports 98.960 87.987 92.783 99.826 100.000 98.636 97.777 89.728 86.531 88.511 85.902 86.216 86.884 87.121 88.099 88.089 88.307 89.548 91.134 91.322 91.424 Total 94.381 94.214 96.421 99.070 100.000 100.931 102.618 103.200 103.737 105.753 102.934 103.502 103.970 104.541 105.245 105.594 105.914 106.257 106.739 107.274 107.682 National defense 94.801 94.126 96.128 98.946 100.000 100.609 101.995 102.256 102.557 104.209 101.836 102.356 102.794 103.241 103.821 104.056 104.322 104.637 105.010 105.355 105.671 Nondefense 93.597 94.364 96.942 99.289 100.000 101.478 103.656 104.739 105.631 108.188 104.706 105.346 105.858 106.613 107.502 108.023 108.422 108.806 109.452 110.270 110.816 State and local 92.558 92.048 94.669 97.739 100.000 103.279 105.670 105.748 105.970 109.155 104.962 105.769 106.218 106.931 108.061 108.528 109.428 110.603 111.572 112.686 113.533 Gross Domestic Product and Related Price Measures: Indexes and Percent Changes [Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Percent change from preceding period 1 Index numbers, 2012=100 Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) Gross domestic product (GDP) Period 2008 ���������������������� 2009 ���������������������� 2010 ���������������������� 2011 ���������������������� 2012 ���������������������� 2013 ���������������������� 2014 ���������������������� 2015 ���������������������� 2016 ���������������������� 2017 ���������������������� 2016: I ����������������� II ����������������� III ���������������� IV ���������������� 2017: I ����������������� II ����������������� III ���������������� IV ���������������� 2018: I ����������������� II ����������������� III r �������������� Real GDP GDP (chain-type chain-type quantity price index) index 96.343 93.899 96.306 97.800 100.000 101.842 104.339 107.345 109.027 111.445 108.189 108.801 109.321 109.799 110.286 111.102 111.878 112.513 113.132 114.290 115.237 GDP implicit price deflator 94.264 94.999 96.109 98.112 100.000 101.773 103.687 104.757 105.899 107.932 105.043 105.738 106.110 106.703 107.233 107.553 108.134 108.807 109.348 110.172 110.669 PCE PCE less food (chain-type and price index) priceenergy index 94.285 95.004 96.111 98.118 100.000 101.755 103.680 104.789 105.935 107.948 105.055 105.778 106.172 106.720 107.275 107.580 108.097 108.824 109.371 110.266 110.679 94.180 94.094 95.705 98.131 100.000 101.346 102.868 103.126 104.235 106.073 103.428 104.036 104.485 104.989 105.528 105.735 106.156 106.873 107.524 108.052 108.474 94.225 95.315 96.608 98.139 100.000 101.526 103.168 104.501 106.237 107.961 105.461 106.008 106.546 106.933 107.365 107.724 108.102 108.654 109.242 109.814 110.246 Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) Gross domestic product (GDP) Gross domestic purchases price index 94.849 94.559 95.923 98.246 100.000 101.468 103.178 103.512 104.306 106.249 103.525 104.121 104.521 105.055 105.619 105.915 106.393 107.069 107.742 108.381 108.865 GDP (current dollars) Real GDP GDP (chain-type chain-type quantity price index) index 1.8 –1.8 3.8 3.7 4.2 3.6 4.4 4.0 2.7 4.2 1.2 5.1 3.5 3.9 3.9 4.2 4.8 5.1 4.3 7.6 4.9 –0.1 –2.5 2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.9 1.6 2.2 1.5 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.8 3.0 2.8 2.3 2.2 4.2 3.4 GDP implicit price deflator 1.9 .8 1.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.0 1.1 1.9 –.2 2.7 1.4 2.3 2.0 1.2 2.2 2.5 2.0 3.0 1.8 Gross domestic PCE purchases PCE food price index (chain-type lessenergy price index) and price index 1.9 .8 1.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.1 1.1 1.9 –.3 2.8 1.5 2.1 2.1 1.1 1.9 2.7 2.0 3.3 1.5 3.0 –.1 1.7 2.5 1.9 1.3 1.5 .3 1.1 1.8 .2 2.4 1.7 1.9 2.1 .8 1.6 2.7 2.5 2.0 1.6 2.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.0 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.4 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.6 2.9 –.3 1.4 2.4 1.8 1.5 1.7 .3 .8 1.9 –.5 2.3 1.5 2.1 2.2 1.1 1.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 1.8 1 Quarterly percent changes are at annual rates. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). Nonfinancial Corporate Business— Gross Value Added and Price, Costs, and Profits [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Current dollars 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2016: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2017: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2018: I ���������������� II ��������������� III r ������������ Price per unit of real gross value added of nonfinancial corporate business (dollars) 1, 2 Gross value added of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars) 1 7,286.7 6,864.6 7,243.2 7,615.3 8,059.1 8,374.1 8,780.3 9,136.3 9,245.4 9,644.4 9,237.7 9,189.3 9,247.7 9,307.1 9,517.1 9,628.9 9,660.8 9,770.7 9,926.5 10,044.0 10,221.0 Chained (2012) dollars 7,809.2 7,255.1 7,568.0 7,774.1 8,059.1 8,261.5 8,517.3 8,810.0 8,942.5 9,246.1 8,945.6 8,863.3 9,000.0 8,961.2 9,071.4 9,233.7 9,291.9 9,387.3 9,508.5 9,527.2 9,694.2 Total 0.933 .946 .957 .980 1.000 1.014 1.031 1.037 1.034 1.043 1.033 1.037 1.028 1.039 1.049 1.043 1.040 1.041 1.044 1.054 1.054 Compensation of employees (unit labor cost) 0.559 .564 .551 .562 .572 .577 .590 .601 .607 .616 .601 .609 .604 .613 .620 .613 .616 .614 .616 .619 .615 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments 4 Unit nonlabor cost Total 0.269 .284 .279 .283 .285 .289 .292 .294 .294 .297 .291 .295 .292 .298 .298 .296 .296 .297 .296 .298 .296 Consumption of fixed capital Net interest Taxes on and production miscellaneous and imports 3 payments 0.141 .153 .148 .150 .153 .155 .159 .160 .160 .161 .159 .161 .160 .161 .162 .161 .161 .161 .161 .163 .162 0.087 .092 .094 .096 .096 .100 .100 .100 .097 .099 .095 .096 .096 .099 .099 .099 .099 .100 .099 .100 .099 0.040 .039 .037 .036 .036 .034 .034 .035 .037 .036 .036 .037 .037 .038 .037 .036 .036 .036 .036 .035 .034 Total 0.106 .097 .127 .134 .143 .148 .149 .143 .133 .130 .141 .133 .131 .128 .131 .133 .127 .130 .131 .137 .143 Taxes on corporate income 0.027 .022 .027 .027 .030 .032 .034 .032 .030 .027 .030 .031 .031 .030 .028 .028 .027 .024 .016 .018 .018 Profits after tax 5 0.079 .075 .100 .107 .112 .116 .115 .111 .103 .104 .111 .102 .100 .098 .103 .106 .100 .106 .116 .119 .125 1 Estimates for nonfinancial corporate business are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). 2 The implicit price deflator for gross value added of nonfinancial corporate business divided by 100. 3 Less subsidies plus business current transfer payments. 4 Unit profits from current production. 5 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 3 National Income [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Proprietors’ income 1 Period 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2016: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2017: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2018: I ���������������� II ��������������� III r ������������ ComNational pensation of income employees 12,325.8 12,027.2 12,735.8 13,357.7 14,094.7 14,494.7 15,245.5 15,783.0 16,058.9 16,756.1 15,887.7 15,953.9 16,081.2 16,312.9 16,525.2 16,661.1 16,822.6 17,015.3 17,266.2 17,423.7 17,659.3 8,057.0 7,758.5 7,924.9 8,225.9 8,566.7 8,834.2 9,248.1 9,696.8 9,956.2 10,407.2 9,839.5 9,890.2 9,986.1 10,109.3 10,249.2 10,339.9 10,471.2 10,568.6 10,710.1 10,782.9 10,893.3 Rental income of persons with capital conNonfarm sumption adjustment Farm 40.2 28.1 39.0 64.9 60.9 88.3 70.1 56.4 37.5 38.9 40.9 41.2 36.7 31.0 42.3 41.5 36.4 35.4 35.2 37.0 27.9 920.7 910.5 1,069.7 1,164.4 1,286.4 1,315.3 1,377.5 1,365.5 1,381.8 1,462.0 1,374.4 1,363.4 1,382.0 1,407.6 1,432.9 1,453.5 1,471.1 1,490.6 1,514.7 1,531.5 1,552.0 256.7 327.3 394.2 478.6 518.0 557.0 608.4 651.8 694.8 730.2 685.2 694.0 696.3 703.8 719.0 724.4 732.0 745.3 749.3 754.2 767.4 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Net interest and Capital miscelconsumption laneous Inventory adjust- payments valuation ment adjustment Taxes on production and imports Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total 1,285.8 1,386.8 1,728.7 1,809.8 1,997.4 2,010.7 2,118.8 2,057.3 2,035.0 2,099.3 1,995.2 2,017.7 2,044.6 2,082.4 2,055.9 2,089.5 2,101.1 2,150.7 2,177.3 2,242.3 2,320.5 Total Profits before tax 1,344.5 1,470.1 1,786.4 1,750.2 2,144.7 2,165.9 2,266.1 2,187.0 2,128.7 2,136.4 2,101.2 2,114.4 2,132.3 2,166.8 2,148.0 2,187.3 2,199.9 2,010.3 2,036.9 2,107.3 2,189.5 1,379.3 1,467.5 1,834.0 1,818.2 2,156.1 2,151.5 2,262.5 2,134.2 2,129.7 2,181.9 2,037.8 2,146.8 2,137.5 2,196.7 2,211.8 2,200.4 2,230.7 2,084.6 2,111.0 2,197.2 2,223.9 –34.8 2.6 –47.6 –68.0 –11.4 14.4 3.6 52.8 –1.0 –45.5 63.4 –32.4 –5.2 –29.9 –63.8 –13.0 –30.8 –74.4 –74.1 –89.9 –34.4 –58.6 –83.3 –57.7 59.6 –147.2 –155.2 –147.3 –129.8 –93.7 –37.1 –106.0 –96.7 –87.7 –84.5 –92.1 –97.9 –98.8 140.4 140.4 135.1 131.0 672.4 539.3 465.2 461.7 503.7 465.9 517.9 591.8 546.0 576.4 562.8 548.0 535.3 537.7 589.3 574.6 561.5 580.1 591.9 583.8 563.2 Business Less: current Subsidies transfer payments 1,049.7 1,026.8 1,063.1 1,103.7 1,136.1 1,188.7 1,240.9 1,269.9 1,303.7 1,347.2 1,288.9 1,294.6 1,310.8 1,320.7 1,326.1 1,338.9 1,353.7 1,370.0 1,397.9 1,413.4 1,435.2 52.6 58.3 55.8 60.0 58.0 59.7 58.1 57.3 61.8 61.3 60.8 62.4 63.1 60.9 59.6 58.4 63.0 64.2 60.5 59.2 60.0 114.0 124.4 126.8 128.1 98.8 110.3 132.9 156.7 168.1 161.2 163.8 170.1 154.8 183.6 173.0 160.7 164.0 147.0 161.2 150.8 172.6 Current surplus of government enterprises –18.2 –16.1 –20.1 –19.4 –15.4 –15.9 –11.0 –5.8 –2.3 –4.9 –2.0 –2.8 –2.3 –2.3 –2.8 –3.5 –5.4 –8.2 –10.8 –12.9 –13.0 1 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). Real Personal Consumption Expenditures [Billions of chained (2012) dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Goods Period Total personal consumption expenditures 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2016: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2017: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2018: I ��������������� II ��������������� III r ������������ 10,592.8 10,460.0 10,643.0 10,843.8 11,006.8 11,166.9 11,494.3 11,921.9 12,248.2 12,558.7 12,111.8 12,214.1 12,294.3 12,372.7 12,427.6 12,515.9 12,584.9 12,706.4 12,722.8 12,842.0 12,953.3 Services Durable Total goods 3,498.9 3,389.8 3,485.7 3,561.8 3,637.7 3,752.2 3,902.9 4,087.7 4,236.1 4,391.9 4,174.6 4,223.9 4,258.5 4,287.2 4,307.3 4,366.0 4,410.2 4,483.9 4,477.0 4,537.6 4,585.5 Total durable goods 1 1,036.4 973.0 1,027.3 1,079.7 1,144.2 1,214.1 1,301.0 1,399.4 1,476.8 1,577.9 1,434.9 1,457.9 1,494.3 1,520.2 1,527.2 1,559.2 1,588.6 1,636.6 1,628.2 1,662.3 1,677.4 Nondurable Motor vehicles and parts 373.1 346.7 360.0 370.1 396.6 415.3 439.8 471.4 486.5 507.2 470.9 477.0 493.2 504.9 494.3 498.0 508.4 528.3 510.7 518.6 516.2 Total nondurable goods 1 2,463.9 2,423.1 2,461.3 2,482.9 2,493.5 2,538.5 2,603.7 2,691.7 2,763.9 2,822.0 2,743.4 2,770.0 2,769.2 2,773.2 2,786.3 2,813.9 2,829.9 2,857.7 2,858.6 2,886.7 2,919.2 Food and beverages purchased for offpremises consumption Gasoline and other energy goods Total services 1 Household consumption expenditures 831.0 825.3 837.7 839.0 846.2 855.5 872.1 884.9 916.8 938.9 900.8 917.0 921.9 927.4 930.2 932.3 939.7 953.5 958.6 965.2 973.3 437.5 440.1 437.9 427.8 421.9 429.7 430.1 449.9 452.0 446.5 461.5 452.2 449.1 445.1 442.8 450.6 447.1 445.4 441.9 446.6 442.8 7,093.0 7,070.1 7,157.4 7,282.1 7,369.1 7,415.5 7,594.0 7,840.0 8,022.5 8,184.5 7,945.5 8,000.4 8,047.0 8,096.9 8,131.9 8,165.6 8,193.7 8,246.6 8,267.9 8,329.8 8,394.9 6,815.4 6,781.3 6,859.0 6,969.3 7,027.5 7,069.8 7,247.9 7,506.1 7,677.3 7,842.2 7,604.1 7,661.4 7,694.9 7,748.8 7,786.8 7,821.9 7,855.0 7,904.9 7,915.2 7,963.5 8,022.7 Housing and utilities 1,921.2 1,943.1 1,966.8 1,993.0 1,996.3 2,006.4 2,044.4 2,089.4 2,116.6 2,129.9 2,101.7 2,116.5 2,127.5 2,120.5 2,114.8 2,130.0 2,131.6 2,143.2 2,146.0 2,158.1 2,163.7 Health care 1,697.9 1,735.1 1,761.7 1,788.7 1,821.3 1,832.6 1,890.4 2,000.1 2,081.7 2,145.8 2,048.1 2,085.6 2,077.0 2,116.2 2,127.3 2,129.2 2,156.8 2,169.7 2,177.3 2,188.9 2,214.3 Financial services and insurance 825.0 809.5 810.5 831.4 820.1 815.2 819.2 841.9 827.4 848.4 830.1 822.7 828.8 827.9 842.7 844.7 851.0 855.1 852.7 852.2 855.3 Addendum: Personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy 2 Retail sales of new passenger cars and light trucks (millions of units) 9,119.2 8,988.1 9,151.3 9,363.2 9,531.1 9,667.6 9,974.9 10,371.8 10,661.9 10,950.3 10,545.5 10,626.4 10,695.2 10,780.4 10,842.6 10,909.5 10,975.1 11,073.9 11,091.8 11,193.5 11,299.7 13.2 10.4 11.6 12.7 14.4 15.5 16.5 17.4 17.5 17.1 17.3 17.3 17.6 17.6 17.1 16.8 17.1 17.6 17.1 17.2 16.9 1 Includes other items, not shown separately. 2 Food consists of food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption; food services, which include purchased meals and beverages, are not classified as food. Note: Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2012) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 4 Sources of Personal Income Personal income rose $40.2 billion (annual rate) in November, following an increase of $87.9 billion in October. Wages and salaries rose $16.3 billion in November, following an increase of $35.8 billion in October. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 20,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 20,000 18,000 18,000 16,000 16,000 14,000 14,000 TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME 12,000 12,000 10,000 10,000 9,000 9,000 WAGES AND SALARIES 8,000 8,000 7,000 7,000 6,000 6,000 OTHER INCOME 5,000 5,000 4,000 4,000 PERSONAL CURRENT TRANSFER RECEIPTS 3,000 3,000 2,000 2,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Compensation of employees Period 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2017: Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� July r �������� Aug r ��������� Sept r �������� Oct r ���������� Nov p �������� Total personal income 12,442.2 12,059.1 12,551.6 13,326.8 14,010.1 14,181.1 14,991.8 15,719.5 16,125.1 16,830.9 17,101.2 17,164.6 17,257.7 17,315.7 17,384.1 17,414.5 17,461.1 17,524.5 17,585.9 17,654.2 17,693.6 17,781.5 17,821.7 Total Wages and salaries 8,057.0 7,758.5 7,924.9 8,225.9 8,566.7 8,834.2 9,248.1 9,696.8 9,956.2 10,407.2 10,569.4 10,612.1 10,674.0 10,709.0 10,747.3 10,761.2 10,776.2 10,811.1 10,848.5 10,900.9 10,930.6 10,971.5 10,991.2 Supplements to wages and salaries 6,534.2 6,248.6 6,372.1 6,625.9 6,927.5 7,113.2 7,473.2 7,854.4 8,080.7 8,453.8 8,588.9 8,626.0 8,679.5 8,709.5 8,742.8 8,753.4 8,764.7 8,794.4 8,826.7 8,872.7 8,897.4 8,933.2 8,949.5 1,522.7 1,509.9 1,552.9 1,600.0 1,639.2 1,721.0 1,774.8 1,842.4 1,875.6 1,953.4 1,980.5 1,986.1 1,994.5 1,999.4 2,004.5 2,007.9 2,011.5 2,016.7 2,021.8 2,028.1 2,033.3 2,038.3 2,041.8 Proprietors’ income 1 Farm 40.2 28.1 39.0 64.9 60.9 88.3 70.1 56.4 37.5 38.9 35.8 33.8 34.5 35.2 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.5 32.7 27.9 23.1 31.5 46.4 Nonfarm 920.7 910.5 1,069.7 1,164.4 1,286.4 1,315.3 1,377.5 1,365.5 1,381.8 1,462.0 1,497.1 1,491.6 1,504.1 1,516.1 1,523.9 1,523.1 1,531.8 1,539.5 1,548.9 1,558.2 1,549.0 1,566.4 1,567.4 Personal income receipts on assets Rental income of persons 2 256.7 327.3 394.2 478.6 518.0 557.0 608.4 651.8 694.8 730.2 746.3 746.3 745.7 748.6 753.6 752.4 753.7 756.6 761.0 766.9 774.2 778.2 782.0 Total 2,200.9 1,852.2 1,782.3 1,950.9 2,165.6 2,066.3 2,301.2 2,471.3 2,516.6 2,631.6 2,692.4 2,717.9 2,712.3 2,719.8 2,726.4 2,731.4 2,749.6 2,762.2 2,770.0 2,771.5 2,775.0 2,784.4 2,785.3 Personal interest income 1,396.3 1,299.3 1,238.5 1,269.4 1,330.5 1,273.0 1,347.8 1,438.1 1,440.9 1,523.0 1,578.6 1,604.5 1,601.1 1,597.6 1,594.2 1,600.4 1,606.5 1,612.7 1,614.5 1,616.2 1,617.9 1,623.5 1,629.0 Personal dividend income 804.6 553.0 543.9 681.5 835.1 793.3 953.4 1,033.3 1,075.7 1,108.6 1,113.8 1,113.4 1,111.2 1,122.2 1,132.3 1,131.1 1,143.1 1,149.5 1,155.5 1,155.3 1,157.0 1,160.9 1,156.3 Personal current transfer receipts 3 1,955.1 2,146.7 2,325.2 2,358.7 2,363.0 2,424.3 2,540.3 2,683.0 2,778.1 2,859.7 2,877.5 2,885.6 2,926.2 2,930.4 2,945.2 2,959.7 2,964.4 2,973.3 2,985.1 2,995.3 3,011.3 3,024.4 3,026.1 Less: Chart 5 - Dec 2018 Contributions for government social insurance, domestic 988.4 964.3 983.7 916.7 950.5 1,104.3 1,153.8 1,205.3 1,239.9 1,298.6 1,317.3 1,322.5 1,339.1 1,343.4 1,348.2 1,349.9 1,351.6 1,355.7 1,360.3 1,366.5 1,369.8 1,374.9 1,376.6 1 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 2 With capital consumption adjustment. 3 Consists mainly of social insurance benefits to persons. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 5 Disposition of Personal Income According to revised estimates, per capita disposable personal income in chained (2012) dollars rose 1.6 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 16,000 15,500 15,000 14,500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 16,000 15,500 15,000 14,500 14,000 14,000 13,500 13,500 DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 13,000 13,000 12,500 12,500 SAVING 12,000 12,000 11,500 11,500 11,000 11,000 PERSONAL OUTLAYS 10,500 10,500 10,000 10,000 DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 48,000 DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 48,000 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 46,000 46,000 44,000 44,000 42,000 42,000 CURRENT DOLLARS 40,000 40,000 38,000 38,000 CHAINED (2012) DOLLARS 36,000 36,000 34,000 34,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Personal income Less: Personal current taxes Equals: Disposable personal income 12,442.2 12,059.1 12,551.6 13,326.8 14,010.1 14,181.1 14,991.8 15,719.5 16,125.1 16,830.9 1,507.2 1,152.0 1,237.3 1,453.2 1,508.9 1,675.8 1,785.4 1,935.2 1,954.3 2,034.6 10,935.0 10,907.1 11,314.3 11,873.6 12,501.2 12,505.3 13,206.4 13,784.3 14,170.9 14,796.3 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Less: Personal outlays 1 Equals: Personal saving Disposable personal income in billions of chained (2012) dollars Per capita disposable personal income Current dollars Billions of dollars 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2017 Chained (2012) dollars Per capita personal consumption expenditures Current dollars Chained (2012) dollars Dollars 10,390.1 10,240.6 10,573.5 11,023.7 11,393.6 11,703.9 12,236.1 12,740.1 13,222.7 13,809.5 544.9 666.5 740.9 849.8 1,107.6 801.4 970.3 1,044.2 948.2 986.8 11,610.8 11,591.7 11,822.1 12,099.8 12,501.2 12,339.1 12,838.1 13,366.5 13,595.2 13,949.2 35,906 35,500 36,522 38,044 39,765 39,499 41,405 42,899 43,782 45,390 Chart 6 - Dec 2018 Percent Saving change as in real percent per capita of disposable disposable personal personal income income Population, including Armed Forces overseas (thousands) 2 Percent 38,125 37,728 38,161 38,769 39,765 38,974 40,251 41,598 42,003 42,791 32,758 32,034 32,879 34,095 35,012 35,746 37,071 38,262 39,444 40,865 34,783 34,045 34,355 34,745 35,012 35,271 36,038 37,102 37,842 38,526 0.0 –1.0 1.1 1.6 2.6 –2.0 3.3 3.3 1.0 1.9 5.0 6.1 6.5 7.2 8.9 6.4 7.3 7.6 6.7 6.7 304,543 307,240 309,794 312,098 314,374 316,598 318,953 321,323 323,668 325,983 42,015 41,882 41,958 42,162 42,556 42,715 42,866 43,027 43,430 43,549 43,718 38,807 39,299 39,650 40,018 40,338 40,637 40,944 41,539 41,780 42,310 42,760 37,522 37,776 37,950 38,118 38,226 38,435 38,571 38,868 38,858 39,158 39,421 2.1 –1.3 .7 2.0 3.8 1.5 1.4 1.5 3.8 1.1 1.6 7.5 6.6 6.3 6.4 7.0 6.7 6.7 6.3 7.2 6.7 6.3 322,793 323,326 323,962 324,593 325,108 325,640 326,276 326,907 327,423 327,955 328,590 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 2016: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2017: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2018: I ���������������� II ��������������� III r ������������ 15,946.5 16,031.6 16,170.6 16,351.8 16,604.4 16,721.2 16,895.1 17,103.1 17,319.2 17,466.7 17,644.5 1,919.9 1,944.2 1,968.7 1,984.3 2,004.9 2,014.2 2,048.5 2,070.9 2,030.0 2,035.3 2,062.4 14,026.7 14,087.4 14,202.0 14,367.5 14,599.6 14,707.0 14,846.6 15,032.2 15,289.2 15,431.4 15,582.2 12,979.1 13,155.8 13,302.2 13,453.6 13,584.7 13,716.7 13,853.3 14,083.3 14,194.8 14,403.8 14,596.3 1,047.6 931.6 899.7 913.9 1,014.9 990.2 993.4 948.9 1,094.3 1,027.7 985.8 13,562.3 13,541.5 13,592.9 13,685.4 13,835.3 13,909.8 13,986.2 14,065.9 14,219.8 14,282.0 14,365.4 43,454 43,570 43,838 44,263 44,907 45,163 45,503 45,983 46,696 47,054 47,421 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, personal interest payments (nonmortgage), and personal current transfer payments. 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). 6 Real Farm Income According to the current forecast for 2018, gross farm income in chained (2018) dollars is forecast to be $435.4 billion and net farm income to be $66.3 billion. BILLIONS OF CHAINED (2018) DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF CHAINED (2018) DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 560 520 480 440 560 520 480 440 GROSS FARM INCOME 400 400 360 360 320 320 280 280 240 240 200 200 160 160 NET FARM INCOME 120 120 80 80 60 60 40 40 2009 2010 2012 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 2017 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of chained (2018) dollars] Chart 7 - Nov 2018 Income of farm operators from farming 1 Gross farm income Year Value of agricultural sector production Total 1999 ��������������������������������������������������� 2000 ��������������������������������������������������� 2001 ��������������������������������������������������� 2002 ��������������������������������������������������� 2003 ��������������������������������������������������� 2004 ��������������������������������������������������� 2005 ��������������������������������������������������� 2006 ��������������������������������������������������� 2007 ��������������������������������������������������� 2008 ��������������������������������������������������� 2009 ��������������������������������������������������� 2010 ��������������������������������������������������� 2011 ��������������������������������������������������� 2012 ��������������������������������������������������� 2013 ��������������������������������������������������� 2014 ��������������������������������������������������� 2015 ��������������������������������������������������� 2016 ��������������������������������������������������� 2017 ��������������������������������������������������� 2018 p ������������������������������������������������� Crops 2, 3 Total 339.9 341.9 345.8 314.3 346.1 384.2 377.2 355.8 405.5 427.1 391.4 409.7 473.3 496.8 525.1 514.6 464.4 429.5 439.7 435.4 308.8 309.1 314.7 297.3 324.0 367.3 346.4 336.5 391.3 412.8 377.2 395.5 461.6 485.1 513.1 504.2 453.0 415.9 427.9 421.8 134.2 134.3 131.5 133.4 145.3 163.0 144.5 145.6 180.4 203.6 191.4 193.2 224.4 235.2 253.6 219.5 194.0 196.7 194.2 191.2 Animals and animal products 3 137.7 140.2 147.2 127.4 140.5 161.9 159.9 146.3 165.3 163.3 139.1 161.2 184.3 186.8 196.4 228.4 204.7 172.7 181.5 176.8 Farm-related income 4 36.8 34.5 36.1 36.5 38.3 42.3 42.0 44.6 45.5 45.8 46.7 41.1 52.8 63.1 63.1 56.3 54.3 46.5 52.2 53.8 Direct Federal Government payments 31.1 32.9 31.0 16.9 22.1 16.9 30.8 19.4 14.2 14.3 14.2 14.2 11.7 11.7 11.9 10.4 11.4 13.5 11.8 13.6 Production expenses Net farm income 270.9 270.2 269.8 260.9 264.5 270.3 277.7 285.4 321.9 335.7 319.0 321.1 345.4 390.3 390.8 416.2 379.0 365.3 362.5 369.1 69.0 71.7 75.9 53.4 81.6 113.9 99.5 70.4 83.6 91.4 72.3 88.6 127.9 106.5 134.3 98.5 85.5 64.2 77.1 66.3 1 The GDP chain-type price index is used to convert the current-dollar statistics to 2018=100 equivalents. 2 Crop receipts include proceeds received from commodities placed under Commodity Credit Corporation loans. 3 The value of production equates to the sum of cash receipts, home consumption, and the value of the change in inventories. 4 Includes income from forest products sold, the gross imputed rental value of farm dwellings, machine hire and custom work, and other sources of farm income such as commodity insurance indemnities. Source: Department of Agriculture (Economic Research Service). 7 Corporate Profits In the third quarter of 2018, according to revised estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $26.7 billion (annual rate) and profits after tax rose $17.9 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2,600 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2,600 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 2,400 2,400 PROFITS BEFORE TAX 2,200 2,200 2,000 2,000 1,800 1,800 PROFITS AFTER TAX 1,600 1,600 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 UNDISTRIBUTED PROFITS 800 800 600 600 400 400 TAXES ON CORPORATE INCOME 200 200 0 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment 1 Profits after tax Domestic industries Period 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2016: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2017: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2018: I ���������������� II ��������������� III r ������������ Total 2 1,344.5 1,470.1 1,786.4 1,750.2 2,144.7 2,165.9 2,266.1 2,187.0 2,128.7 2,136.4 2,101.2 2,114.4 2,132.3 2,166.8 2,148.0 2,187.3 2,199.9 2,010.3 2,036.9 2,107.3 2,189.5 Profits before tax Nonfinancial Total 954.3 1,121.3 1,400.6 1,337.7 1,739.3 1,767.1 1,861.2 1,784.5 1,722.2 1,687.5 1,711.7 1,714.1 1,741.9 1,721.0 1,714.8 1,768.0 1,740.0 1,527.3 1,550.2 1,625.2 1,706.2 Financial 94.6 362.7 405.8 378.4 482.4 430.7 483.1 437.6 468.9 468.7 377.4 472.1 505.5 520.4 463.3 468.7 489.0 453.7 444.5 461.6 456.3 Total 3 859.7 758.7 994.8 959.3 1,256.9 1,336.3 1,378.1 1,346.9 1,253.3 1,218.9 1,334.2 1,241.9 1,236.4 1,200.6 1,251.5 1,299.3 1,251.0 1,073.6 1,105.8 1,163.6 1,249.9 Manufacturing 240.0 164.7 281.8 296.0 403.0 446.9 457.4 422.5 322.9 292.9 395.5 311.1 298.2 286.6 279.2 306.9 320.8 264.5 238.5 267.7 302.9 Utilities Wholesale 30.4 23.4 30.6 10.2 13.8 28.3 32.7 20.1 7.2 3.8 12.6 10.5 1.2 4.4 5.9 5.3 2.7 1.4 –1.1 –0.7 –2.2 1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 2 Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. 3 Includes industries not shown separately. Note: Data by industry are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 8 92.7 88.9 99.3 97.2 137.9 146.4 150.8 152.1 127.5 111.8 151.8 120.6 136.8 100.7 117.4 128.9 114.7 86.3 88.6 83.3 117.1 Taxes on corporate income Total Net dividends Retail 82.2 107.9 115.9 115.1 155.7 153.3 158.6 169.2 173.5 162.5 169.6 164.9 179.5 179.9 171.4 170.7 168.7 139.2 155.4 141.1 164.8 1,379.3 1,467.5 1,834.0 1,818.2 2,156.1 2,151.5 2,262.5 2,134.2 2,129.7 2,181.9 2,037.8 2,146.8 2,137.5 2,196.7 2,211.8 2,200.4 2,230.7 2,084.6 2,111.0 2,197.2 2,223.9 256.1 204.2 272.5 281.1 334.9 362.8 407.4 397.2 392.9 350.7 384.4 385.5 413.0 388.5 348.0 355.8 365.2 333.8 212.0 234.8 243.7 1,123.2 1,263.3 1,561.5 1,537.2 1,821.2 1,788.7 1,855.2 1,737.0 1,736.9 1,831.2 1,653.4 1,761.2 1,724.6 1,808.2 1,863.8 1,844.6 1,865.5 1,750.8 1,899.0 1,962.3 1,980.2 840.3 622.1 643.2 779.1 948.7 1,009.0 1,096.1 1,164.9 1,187.4 1,215.3 1,180.2 1,180.9 1,196.3 1,192.4 1,217.7 1,233.3 1,215.5 1,194.8 1,213.2 1,223.0 1,250.6 Chart 8 - Dec 2018 Inventory Undistrib- valuation adjustment uted profits 282.9 641.3 918.3 758.1 872.6 779.7 759.1 572.1 549.4 615.9 473.2 580.3 528.3 615.8 646.1 611.3 650.0 556.0 685.7 739.3 729.6 –34.8 2.6 –47.6 –68.0 –11.4 14.4 3.6 52.8 –1.0 –45.5 63.4 –32.4 –5.2 –29.9 –63.8 –13.0 –30.8 –74.4 –74.1 –89.9 –34.4 Real Gross Private Domestic Investment In the third quarter of 2018, according to revised estimates, nonresidential fixed investment in chained (2012) dollars rose $16.9 billion (annual rate) and residential fixed investment fell $5.5 billion. Inventories rose $89.8 billion, following a decrease of $36.8 billion in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF CHAINED (2012) DOLLARS 3,600 BILLIONS OF CHAINED (2012) DOLLARS 3,600 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 3,400 3,400 3,200 3,200 3,000 3,000 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 2,800 2,800 2,600 2,600 2,400 2,400 2,200 2,200 NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT 2,000 2,000 1,800 1,800 1,600 1,600 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT 800 600 800 600 400 400 200 200 0 0 CHANGE IN PRIVATE INVENTORIES –200 –200 –400 –400 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of chained (2012) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Chart 9 - Dec 2018 Fixed investment Period 2008 ��������������������������������������������������� 2009 ��������������������������������������������������� 2010 ��������������������������������������������������� 2011 ��������������������������������������������������� 2012 ��������������������������������������������������� 2013 ��������������������������������������������������� 2014 ��������������������������������������������������� 2015 ��������������������������������������������������� 2016 ��������������������������������������������������� 2017 ��������������������������������������������������� 2016: I ����������������������������������������������� II ���������������������������������������������� III ��������������������������������������������� IV ��������������������������������������������� 2017: I ����������������������������������������������� II ���������������������������������������������� III ��������������������������������������������� IV ��������������������������������������������� 2018: I ����������������������������������������������� II ���������������������������������������������� III r ������������������������������������������� Gross private domestic investment 2,462.9 1,942.0 2,216.5 2,362.1 2,621.8 2,801.5 2,951.6 3,092.2 3,050.5 3,196.6 3,042.9 3,035.2 3,032.2 3,091.7 3,128.6 3,172.1 3,239.8 3,246.0 3,321.0 3,316.7 3,436.2 Change in private inventories Nonresidential Total 2,499.4 2,099.8 2,164.2 2,317.8 2,550.5 2,692.1 2,861.5 2,958.5 3,009.8 3,155.1 2,979.7 3,000.0 3,023.5 3,036.1 3,108.6 3,141.3 3,161.2 3,209.3 3,271.3 3,322.3 3,331.8 Total 1,994.2 1,704.3 1,781.0 1,935.4 2,118.5 2,206.0 2,357.4 2,399.7 2,411.2 2,538.1 2,380.9 2,403.3 2,430.3 2,430.4 2,486.5 2,530.8 2,552.3 2,582.7 2,654.0 2,710.1 2,727.0 Structures 605.4 492.2 412.8 424.1 479.4 485.5 536.9 520.9 494.7 517.5 484.8 488.8 503.5 501.9 517.3 522.2 514.5 516.2 533.3 551.7 546.9 Equipment 824.4 649.7 781.2 886.2 983.4 1,029.2 1,098.7 1,132.6 1,116.2 1,183.7 1,115.1 1,115.5 1,115.8 1,118.2 1,142.8 1,169.5 1,197.1 1,225.6 1,250.9 1,264.9 1,275.6 Intellectual property products 575.3 572.4 588.1 624.8 655.7 691.4 721.1 747.8 803.9 841.1 785.0 803.2 814.0 813.3 829.0 842.3 845.9 847.3 875.7 897.9 910.2 Residential 504.6 395.3 383.0 382.5 432.0 485.5 504.2 555.3 591.3 611.1 590.9 589.4 586.9 597.9 613.8 605.2 604.5 620.7 615.3 613.2 607.7 Total Nonfarm –32.7 –177.3 57.3 46.7 71.2 108.7 86.6 129.0 23.4 22.5 50.7 17.8 –14.1 39.1 –2.4 11.9 64.4 16.1 30.3 –36.8 89.8 –31.5 –165.2 70.2 48.4 89.9 98.2 90.3 127.8 28.4 27.4 59.8 20.2 –11.6 45.2 3.8 16.9 67.8 21.1 35.9 –31.0 95.4 Note: See p. 10 for further detail on fixed investment by type. Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2012) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 9 Real Private Fixed Investment by Type [Billions of chained (2012) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nonresidential Equipment Total fixed investment Period 2008 ������������ 2009 ������������ 2010 ������������ 2011 ������������ 2012 ������������ 2013 ������������ 2014 ������������ 2015 ������������ 2016 ������������ 2017 ������������ 2016: I �������� II ������� III ������ IV ������ 2017: I �������� II ������� III ������ IV ������ 2018: I �������� II ������� III r ���� Residential Total nonresidential 2,499.4 2,099.8 2,164.2 2,317.8 2,550.5 2,692.1 2,861.5 2,958.5 3,009.8 3,155.1 2,979.7 3,000.0 3,023.5 3,036.1 3,108.6 3,141.3 3,161.2 3,209.3 3,271.3 3,322.3 3,331.8 Intellectual property products Information processing equipment Structures 1,994.2 1,704.3 1,781.0 1,935.4 2,118.5 2,206.0 2,357.4 2,399.7 2,411.2 2,538.1 2,380.9 2,403.3 2,430.3 2,430.4 2,486.5 2,530.8 2,552.3 2,582.7 2,654.0 2,710.1 2,727.0 Total 2 605.4 492.2 412.8 424.1 479.4 485.5 536.9 520.9 494.7 517.5 484.8 488.8 503.5 501.9 517.3 522.2 514.5 516.2 533.3 551.7 546.9 Computers and peripheral equipment 1 Total 824.4 649.7 781.2 886.2 983.4 1,029.2 1,098.7 1,132.6 1,116.2 1,183.7 1,115.1 1,115.5 1,115.8 1,118.2 1,142.8 1,169.5 1,197.1 1,225.6 1,250.9 1,264.9 1,275.6 260.6 247.5 289.1 303.2 331.2 351.8 368.6 393.5 410.9 459.8 399.6 405.9 415.1 423.0 439.7 455.2 466.8 477.5 490.5 502.9 511.8 ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ Other 180.9 166.5 195.1 209.3 227.7 248.8 266.4 291.0 309.7 348.4 298.8 304.3 315.6 320.3 334.5 342.2 349.7 367.1 371.7 379.3 389.7 Industrial Transportation equipequipment ment 208.3 162.7 162.5 194.9 211.2 208.4 216.6 217.0 214.4 228.6 211.8 213.9 214.6 217.5 220.6 227.7 231.6 234.6 238.5 236.6 242.0 Total 2 155.0 72.5 141.5 181.8 215.3 238.5 264.4 291.4 274.3 264.2 284.0 279.8 270.5 262.9 262.0 259.0 264.7 270.9 280.3 281.3 278.8 Structures Software Research and development 3 206.7 212.9 220.9 245.2 272.1 287.2 305.3 319.9 345.9 379.3 334.4 343.0 349.8 356.2 366.2 377.7 387.9 385.3 402.1 414.2 423.3 304.8 297.4 298.5 311.0 313.4 333.8 345.3 352.8 382.0 386.8 374.6 384.8 387.7 380.7 386.7 389.5 384.0 386.8 398.8 408.6 411.8 575.3 572.4 588.1 624.8 655.7 691.4 721.1 747.8 803.9 841.1 785.0 803.2 814.0 813.3 829.0 842.3 845.9 847.3 875.7 897.9 910.2 Total residential 2 504.6 395.3 383.0 382.5 432.0 485.5 504.2 555.3 591.3 611.1 590.9 589.4 586.9 597.9 613.8 605.2 604.5 620.7 615.3 613.2 607.7 Total 2 Single family 495.7 386.9 373.8 372.4 421.5 474.1 491.8 541.9 576.8 595.7 576.7 575.1 572.4 583.2 598.7 590.0 589.2 605.0 599.7 597.8 592.4 178.1 105.3 114.3 109.1 132.0 161.8 171.9 191.5 201.1 214.8 204.7 202.1 195.7 202.1 208.5 213.1 216.6 220.9 223.1 220.6 217.5 1 Because computers exhibit rapid changes in prices relative to other prices in the economy, the chained-dollar estimates should not be used to measure the component’s relative importance or its contribution to the growth rate of more aggregate series. The quantity index for computers can be used to accurately measure the real growth rate of this series. For information on this component, see Survey of Current Business Table 5.3.1 (for growth rates), Table 5.3.2 (for contributions), and Table 5.3.3 (for quantity indexes). 2 Includes other items, not shown separately. 3 Research and development investment excludes expenditures for software development. Note: Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2012) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). Business Investment [Billions of dollars] Capital expenditures By industry Period Total capital expenditures Forestry, Total fishing, by and agri- Mining industry cultural services ConManu- WholeUtilities struction sale facturing trade Retail trade TransportaFinance tion Informaand and tion insurwareance housing ProfesReal sional, estate scienand tific, rental and and technical leasing services Health care and social assistance Other 1 For companies without employees For companies with employees 2002 �������� 2003 �������� 2004 �������� 2005 �������� 2006 �������� 2007 �������� 2008 �������� 2009 �������� 2010 �������� 2011 �������� 2012 �������� 2013 �������� 2014 �������� 2015 �������� 2016 p ������� 997.9 975.0 1,042.1 1,144.8 1,309.9 1,354.7 1,374.2 1,090.7 1,105.7 1,243.0 1,423.6 1,491.3 1,597.9 1,642.0 1,575.7 917.5 886.8 953.2 1,062.5 1,217.1 1,270.5 1,294.5 1,015.3 1,036.2 1,169.6 1,334.4 1,400.9 1,506.6 1,548.1 1,480.3 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.7 2.7 2.1 2.3 2.2 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.0 4.0 3.3 4.6 42.5 50.5 51.3 66.7 99.3 120.7 149.3 100.6 115.7 165.7 196.7 202.2 230.8 174.1 92.7 65.5 54.6 50.4 58.0 69.8 85.4 98.7 103.0 94.5 98.0 125.0 111.3 118.9 130.5 133.8 24.8 23.2 28.6 30.1 30.3 36.7 40.8 19.8 17.9 21.8 23.6 27.6 30.3 33.3 36.0 157.2 149.1 156.7 165.6 192.4 197.3 213.1 155.2 160.8 192.4 203.1 221.3 231.1 245.1 243.6 26.8 26.0 32.3 40.6 36.6 30.8 32.4 25.3 31.1 35.7 40.9 37.5 44.8 42.4 43.9 59.3 65.9 72.2 73.5 86.7 82.5 73.2 58.4 65.3 68.1 77.6 77.5 82.4 86.0 87.0 47.1 44.5 46.1 56.9 68.0 67.4 79.6 55.7 59.0 72.7 81.8 92.6 111.0 116.6 109.7 88.2 80.5 83.5 91.4 104.4 106.1 103.3 88.4 97.2 100.1 106.5 123.9 132.0 132.7 142.2 128.4 120.8 153.6 161.4 163.1 173.4 132.9 99.5 103.1 109.2 130.2 137.8 153.3 164.6 167.1 94.5 88.0 91.6 103.0 132.1 117.5 106.9 72.9 81.3 91.1 115.7 114.2 121.9 151.9 145.3 25.9 24.7 26.7 33.1 30.3 31.8 33.0 28.2 28.2 28.1 31.6 35.7 30.4 33.3 32.4 59.3 61.2 64.6 73.8 75.3 84.2 90.2 79.4 78.4 83.1 88.9 94.2 89.0 93.8 93.6 96.1 96.2 93.6 105.6 126.3 134.8 138.7 127.0 100.6 100.4 110.0 122.1 126.8 140.6 148.6 80.4 88.2 88.9 82.2 92.8 84.2 79.7 75.4 69.5 73.4 89.2 90.4 91.3 93.9 95.4 1 Includes the following industries: Management of companies and enterprises; administrative and support and waste management; educational services; arts, entertainment, and recreation; accommodation and food services; and other services (except public administration). Also includes an item for structure and equipment expenditures serving multiple industry categories. Note: Data from Annual Capital Expenditures. Industry data are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Data shown in this table are capital expenditures for both new and used structures and equipment. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census). 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force In December, unemployment as measured by the household survey rose 276,000 to 6.3 million. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 166 166 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 162 162 158 158 154 154 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE 150 150 146 146 CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT 142 142 138 138 134 134 20 20 16 16 UNEMPLOYMENT 12 12 8 8 4 4 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 *16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Period 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2018 �������������������� 2017: Dec r ��������� 2018: Jan r ��������� Feb r ��������� Mar r �������� Apr r ��������� May r �������� June r ������� July r �������� Aug r ��������� Sept r �������� Oct r ���������� Nov r ��������� Dec ����������� Civilian noninsti- Civilian labor tutional force population (NSA) 235,801 237,830 239,618 243,284 245,679 247,947 250,801 253,538 255,079 257,791 256,109 256,780 256,934 257,097 257,272 257,454 257,642 257,843 258,066 258,290 258,514 258,708 258,888 154,142 153,889 153,617 154,975 155,389 155,922 157,130 159,187 160,320 162,075 160,636 161,123 161,900 161,646 161,551 161,667 162,129 162,209 161,802 162,055 162,694 162,821 163,240 Civilian employment Total 139,877 139,064 139,869 142,469 143,929 146,305 148,834 151,436 153,337 155,761 154,065 154,482 155,213 155,160 155,216 155,539 155,592 155,964 155,604 156,069 156,582 156,803 156,945 Men 20 years and over 71,341 71,230 72,182 73,403 74,176 75,471 76,776 78,084 78,919 80,211 79,493 79,719 80,186 80,091 80,108 80,299 80,006 80,217 80,149 80,251 80,388 80,633 80,501 Women 20 years and over 63,699 63,456 63,360 64,640 65,295 66,287 67,323 68,387 69,344 70,424 69,587 69,620 69,849 69,946 70,033 70,161 70,455 70,622 70,563 70,710 70,935 70,949 71,218 Percent 1 Chart 11 - Dec 2018 Unemployment Both sexes 16–19 years 4,837 4,378 4,327 4,426 4,458 4,548 4,734 4,965 5,074 5,126 4,985 5,143 5,178 5,123 5,074 5,079 5,131 5,125 4,892 5,108 5,258 5,221 5,226 Total 14,265 14,825 13,747 12,506 11,460 9,617 8,296 7,751 6,982 6,314 6,572 6,641 6,687 6,486 6,335 6,128 6,537 6,245 6,197 5,986 6,112 6,018 6,294 Men 20 years and over 7,555 7,763 6,898 5,984 5,568 4,585 3,959 3,675 3,287 2,976 3,101 3,196 3,072 3,059 3,055 2,958 3,097 2,801 2,895 2,853 2,889 2,775 2,999 Women 20 years and over Both sexes 16–19 years 5,157 5,534 5,450 5,125 4,565 3,926 3,371 3,151 2,868 2,578 2,686 2,618 2,746 2,634 2,525 2,429 2,701 2,673 2,590 2,398 2,507 2,529 2,550 1,552 1,528 1,400 1,397 1,327 1,106 966 925 827 759 785 827 870 793 755 741 740 771 712 735 715 714 745 Not in labor force 81,659 83,941 86,001 88,310 90,290 92,025 93,671 94,351 94,759 95,716 95,473 95,657 95,033 95,451 95,721 95,787 95,513 95,633 96,264 96,235 95,821 95,886 95,649 Labor Employ- Unemployforce ment/ participa- population ment tion rate ratio rate 65.4 64.7 64.1 63.7 63.2 62.9 62.7 62.8 62.9 62.9 62.7 62.7 63.0 62.9 62.8 62.8 62.9 62.9 62.7 62.7 62.9 62.9 63.1 59.3 58.5 58.4 58.6 58.6 59.0 59.3 59.7 60.1 60.4 60.2 60.2 60.4 60.4 60.3 60.4 60.4 60.5 60.3 60.4 60.6 60.6 60.6 9.3 9.6 8.9 8.1 7.4 6.2 5.3 4.9 4.4 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.9 1 Civilian labor force (or employment) as percent of civilian noninstitutional population; and unemployment as percent of civilian labor force. Note: Beginning each January, data reflect revised population controls and are not strictly comparable with earlier data. See Employment and Earnings for details on breaks in series. Data reflect annual revisions released January 4, 2019; seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 2014. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 11 Selected Unemployment Rates In December, the unemployment rate rose to 3.9 percent. PERCENT (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 30 30 25 25 20 20 TEENAGERS (16-19) 15 15 BLACK OR AFRICAN AMERICAN1 10 10 HISPANIC1,2 MEN 20 YEARS AND OVER 5 5 WHITE1 ALL CIVILIAN WORKERS 2015 2016 WOMEN 20 YEARS AND OVER ASIAN1 0 0 2014 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1 SEE FOOTNOTE 1 TABLE BELOW. HISPANIC OR LATINO ETHNICITY. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 2 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) Chart 12 - Dec 2018 By race or ethnicity 1 By sex and age Period 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2018 �������������������� 2017: Dec r ��������� 2018: Jan r ��������� Feb r ��������� Mar r �������� Apr r ��������� May r �������� June r ������� July r �������� Aug r ��������� Sept r �������� Oct r ���������� Nov r ��������� Dec ����������� All civilian workers 9.3 9.6 8.9 8.1 7.4 6.2 5.3 4.9 4.4 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.9 Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over 9.6 9.8 8.7 7.5 7.0 5.7 4.9 4.5 4.0 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.3 3.6 7.5 8.0 7.9 7.3 6.5 5.6 4.8 4.4 4.0 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 Both sexes 16–19 years 24.3 25.9 24.4 24.0 22.9 19.6 16.9 15.7 14.0 12.9 13.6 13.9 14.4 13.4 13.0 12.7 12.6 13.1 12.7 12.6 12.0 12.0 12.5 White 8.5 8.7 7.9 7.2 6.5 5.3 4.6 4.3 3.8 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 Black or African American 14.8 16.0 15.8 13.8 13.1 11.3 9.6 8.4 7.5 6.5 6.7 7.7 6.8 6.8 6.5 5.9 6.5 6.6 6.3 6.0 6.2 6.0 6.6 By selected groups Hispanic or Latino ethnicity Asian 7.3 7.5 7.0 5.9 5.2 5.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.0 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.8 2.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.5 3.1 2.7 3.3 1 Persons who selected this race group only. Persons whose ethnicity is identified as Hispanic or Latino may be of any race. Note: Data relate to persons age 16 years and over. See Note, p. 11. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 12 12.1 12.5 11.5 10.3 9.1 7.4 6.6 5.8 5.1 4.7 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.1 4.8 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 Married men, spouse present 6.6 6.8 5.8 4.9 4.3 3.4 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 Women who maintain families (NSA) 11.5 12.3 12.4 11.4 10.2 8.6 7.4 6.8 6.2 5.4 5.3 6.5 6.2 5.6 5.5 4.7 5.5 5.6 5.4 5.1 5.3 5.4 4.5 Full-time workers 10.0 10.4 9.6 8.5 7.7 6.4 5.4 4.9 4.3 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.7 Part-time workers 6.0 6.3 6.3 6.1 5.9 5.4 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.7 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.8 Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs In December, the percentages of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks, for 15 to 26 weeks, and for 27 weeks and over fell, while the percentage for 5 to 14 weeks rose. The mean duration of unemployment rose to 21.8 weeks and the median duration rose to 9.1 weeks. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 70 DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT 60 60 50 50 40 40 REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT JOB LOSERS LESS THAN 5 WEEKS 27 WEEKS AND OVER REENTRANTS 30 30 5-14 WEEKS 20 20 JOB LEAVERS 15-26 WEEKS 10 10 NEW ENTRANTS 0 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 2017 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Chart 13 - Dec 2018 Duration of unemployment Period Unemployment (thousands) Percent distribution Less than 5 weeks 5–14 weeks 15–26 weeks Reason for unemployment: percent distribution Number of weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) 1 Median Job losers Job leavers Reentrants New entrants 22.3 23.4 24.7 26.7 28.0 29.4 30.6 30.1 29.8 30.5 30.4 29.8 29.3 30.0 31.3 30.3 31.9 29.0 30.1 31.4 31.3 31.4 31.1 7.3 8.2 9.3 10.5 10.9 11.3 10.6 10.6 9.9 9.5 8.7 9.7 10.5 9.4 9.6 9.2 8.9 9.5 9.5 9.8 9.9 9.6 9.3 State programs Insured unemployment (NSA) Initial claims (NSA) Insured unemployment, all programs (NSA) 2 Weekly average, thousands 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2018 �������������������� 2017: Dec r ��������� 2018: Jan r ��������� Feb r ��������� Mar r �������� Apr r ��������� May r �������� June r ������� July r �������� Aug r ��������� Sept r �������� Oct r ���������� Nov r ��������� Dec ����������� 14,265 14,825 13,747 12,506 11,460 9,617 8,296 7,751 6,982 6,314 6,572 6,641 6,687 6,486 6,335 6,128 6,537 6,245 6,197 5,986 6,112 6,018 6,294 22.2 18.7 19.5 21.1 22.5 25.7 28.9 30.5 32.5 34.4 33.7 34.5 36.7 35.0 33.0 33.2 34.6 33.3 35.7 34.1 33.6 34.9 33.4 26.8 22.0 21.8 22.9 24.1 25.3 27.7 28.7 28.8 29.7 30.0 29.3 28.4 30.5 30.7 31.3 29.1 28.9 27.9 28.9 30.1 30.2 31.9 19.5 16.0 15.0 14.9 15.8 15.6 15.3 14.9 14.6 14.5 13.5 14.6 13.9 13.9 15.9 15.9 13.4 15.2 15.0 14.2 14.0 14.2 14.1 31.5 43.3 43.8 41.1 37.6 33.5 28.1 25.9 24.2 21.4 22.8 21.7 21.0 20.6 20.4 19.7 22.9 22.6 21.4 22.8 22.3 20.7 20.5 24.4 33.0 39.3 39.4 36.5 33.7 29.2 27.5 25.0 22.7 23.8 23.9 22.9 24.2 23.0 21.3 21.2 23.1 22.6 24.1 22.4 21.7 21.8 15.1 21.4 21.4 19.3 17.0 14.0 11.6 10.6 10.0 9.3 8.9 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.8 9.3 9.0 9.6 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.0 9.1 64.2 62.4 59.0 55.0 53.0 50.7 49.0 48.2 49.2 47.4 49.8 49.4 48.4 47.4 46.4 46.8 46.9 48.1 46.4 46.5 46.8 47.4 46.2 6.2 6.0 7.0 7.7 8.1 8.6 9.9 11.1 11.1 12.6 11.1 11.0 11.8 13.1 12.7 13.7 12.3 13.4 14.0 12.3 12.0 11.6 13.3 5,724 4,487 3,679 3,297 2,947 2,574 2,237 2,099 1,948 p 1,755 2,152 2,620 2,243 2,135 2,135 1,686 1,608 2,037 1,714 1,547 1,535 1,516 p 2,035 568 454 406 374 342 304 275 259 240 p 219 328 350 217 213 223 220 226 240 196 172 225 263 p 307 1 Beginning January 2011, includes unemployment durations of up to 5 years; prior data are for up to 2 years. 2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands), Federal (UCFE), ex-service members (UCX), and Federal and State extended benefit programs. Emergency Unemployment Compensation (2008-2013) and Federal Additional Compensation (2009-2010). 9,123 9,732 7,630 6,048 4,605 2,657 2,272 2,127 1,971 p 1,774 2,181 2,648 2,266 2,158 2,158 1,705 1,626 2,057 1,732 1,564 1,553 1,533 p 2,057 Also includes Note: Data relate to persons age 16 years and over (except for insured unemployment and initial claims). See Note, p. 11. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 Nonagricultural Employment Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 312,000 in December. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 155 108 106 150 104 ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS PRIVATE SERVICE-PROVIDING INDUSTRIES 102 100 145 98 96 140 26 24 135 EDUCATION AND HEALTH SERVICES 22 PROFESSIONAL AND BUSINESS SERVICES 20 130 18 125 RETAIL TRADE 16 PRIVATE INDUSTRIES 14 22 120 GOODS-PRODUCING 20 115 18 16 110 14 24 GOVERNMENT MANUFACTURING 12 22 20 10 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 2017 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thousands of wage and salary workers; 1 monthly data seasonally adjusted] Chart 14 - Dec 2018 Private industries Period 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2018 p ������������������ 2017: Dec ����������� 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct r ���������� Nov r ��������� Dec p �������� Total nonagricultural employment 131,313 130,362 131,932 134,175 136,381 138,958 141,843 144,352 146,624 149,041 147,625 147,801 148,125 148,280 148,455 148,723 148,931 149,096 149,382 149,501 149,775 149,951 150,263 Goods-producing industries Total private 108,758 107,871 109,845 112,255 114,529 117,076 119,814 122,128 124,303 126,671 125,294 125,482 125,803 125,956 126,130 126,390 126,582 126,719 126,986 127,103 127,384 127,557 127,858 Total 2 Construc- Manufaction turing 18,558 17,751 18,047 18,420 18,738 19,226 19,610 19,750 20,077 20,682 20,328 20,383 20,490 20,516 20,568 20,624 20,660 20,701 20,750 20,787 20,851 20,878 20,952 6,016 5,518 5,533 5,646 5,856 6,151 6,461 6,728 6,955 7,235 7,072 7,100 7,167 7,164 7,180 7,210 7,218 7,237 7,268 7,283 7,314 7,314 7,352 11,847 11,528 11,726 11,927 12,020 12,185 12,336 12,354 12,444 12,708 12,558 12,578 12,609 12,630 12,658 12,681 12,702 12,724 12,735 12,754 12,783 12,810 12,842 Private service-providing industries Trade, transportation, and utilities Total Total 3 90,201 90,121 91,798 93,835 95,791 97,850 100,204 102,379 104,226 105,989 104,966 105,099 105,313 105,440 105,562 105,766 105,922 106,018 106,236 106,316 106,533 106,679 106,906 24,905 24,636 25,065 25,476 25,862 26,383 26,887 27,257 27,494 27,799 27,593 27,627 27,695 27,736 27,727 27,779 27,765 27,782 27,836 27,837 27,861 27,929 27,963 Retail trade 14,522 14,440 14,668 14,841 15,079 15,357 15,605 15,825 15,869 15,925 15,861 15,873 15,919 15,930 15,928 15,957 15,915 15,917 15,926 15,900 15,900 15,929 15,953 Information Financial activities 2,804 2,707 2,674 2,676 2,706 2,726 2,750 2,794 2,795 2,766 2,776 2,760 2,759 2,765 2,768 2,771 2,769 2,770 2,766 2,759 2,766 2,761 2,760 7,838 7,695 7,697 7,784 7,886 7,977 8,123 8,287 8,455 8,578 8,511 8,514 8,543 8,548 8,551 8,563 8,575 8,578 8,587 8,604 8,614 8,615 8,621 Profes- Education Leisure sional and and and health hospitalbusiness services ity services 16,579 16,728 17,332 17,932 18,515 19,062 19,633 20,052 20,467 20,996 20,677 20,715 20,776 20,817 20,876 20,925 20,972 21,011 21,065 21,117 21,173 21,217 21,260 19,630 19,975 20,318 20,769 21,086 21,439 22,029 22,639 23,186 23,650 23,380 23,430 23,462 23,491 23,529 23,571 23,638 23,674 23,741 23,750 23,794 23,815 23,897 13,077 13,049 13,353 13,768 14,254 14,696 15,160 15,660 16,052 16,337 16,207 16,228 16,246 16,248 16,262 16,297 16,325 16,338 16,368 16,373 16,440 16,458 16,513 Other services 5,367 5,331 5,360 5,430 5,483 5,567 5,622 5,691 5,776 5,863 5,822 5,825 5,832 5,835 5,849 5,860 5,878 5,865 5,873 5,876 5,885 5,884 5,892 Government 22,555 22,490 22,086 21,920 21,853 21,882 22,029 22,224 22,322 22,369 22,331 22,319 22,322 22,324 22,325 22,333 22,349 22,377 22,396 22,398 22,391 22,394 22,405 1 Data from the establishment survey. Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who received pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, unpaid family workers, and private household workers. Data from the household survey shown on p. 11 include those workers and also count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off. In the series shown here, persons who work at more than one job are counted each time they appear on a payroll, in contrast to the series shown on p. 11 where persons are counted only once—as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force. See Employment and Earnings for details. 2 Includes mining and logging, not shown separately. 3 Includes wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, and utilities, not shown separately. Note: Data classified by industry based on the 2017 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). For details see Employment and Earnings. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 14 Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings— Private Nonagricultural Industries [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Average weekly hours Total private nonagricultural 1 Period 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2018 p ������������������ 2017: Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct r ���������� Nov r ��������� Dec p �������� Average gross hourly earnings Total private nonagricultural 1 Manufacturing Total 33.1 33.4 33.6 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.6 33.7 33.8 33.7 33.8 33.6 33.8 33.7 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.7 Overtime 39.8 41.1 41.4 41.7 41.8 42.0 41.8 41.9 41.9 42.1 41.9 41.8 41.9 42.3 42.2 42.3 42.0 42.1 42.2 42.2 42.1 42.0 42.0 42.0 2.9 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.6 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 Current dollars Manufacturing 1982-84 dollars 2 $18.61 19.05 19.44 19.74 20.13 20.61 21.03 21.54 22.05 22.69 22.23 22.31 22.34 22.39 22.46 22.52 22.58 22.63 22.67 22.76 22.82 22.88 22.96 23.05 $8.88 8.90 8.77 8.73 8.78 8.85 9.07 9.20 9.22 9.26 9.20 9.22 9.17 9.18 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.24 9.24 9.25 9.28 9.26 9.30 9.36 Average gross weekly earnings Total private nonagricultural 1 Current dollars $18.24 18.61 18.93 19.08 19.30 19.56 19.91 20.44 20.89 21.51 21.12 21.21 21.27 21.32 21.36 21.44 21.40 21.45 21.44 21.54 21.60 21.68 21.76 21.80 $615.96 636.19 652.89 665.65 677.70 694.85 708.90 723.31 742.56 765.95 749.15 754.08 750.62 756.78 756.90 761.18 763.20 764.89 766.25 769.29 769.03 771.06 773.75 776.79 Percent change from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural Current dollars 1982-84 dollars 2 $293.83 297.33 294.66 294.24 295.52 298.51 305.81 309.01 310.63 312.45 310.15 311.59 308.24 310.43 310.99 311.94 312.04 312.29 312.39 312.78 312.60 312.17 313.37 315.29 Manufacturing Construction $726.12 765.18 784.29 794.63 807.37 822.03 832.08 855.77 875.71 906.69 884.93 886.58 891.21 901.84 901.39 906.91 898.80 903.05 904.77 908.99 909.36 910.56 913.92 915.60 $851.76 891.83 921.84 942.14 958.72 977.11 998.02 1,031.88 1,061.66 1,108.03 1,068.80 1,084.80 1,075.93 1,096.40 1,094.40 1,105.10 1,108.65 1,099.25 1,111.17 1,109.22 1,105.24 1,110.78 1,106.30 1,133.63 Retail trade Current dollars $388.57 400.05 412.09 422.10 423.07 431.82 445.55 447.49 462.86 483.12 469.68 471.81 471.50 469.35 476.98 478.74 483.36 484.04 485.26 486.10 487.01 489.14 489.04 490.45 1982-84 dollars 2 1.4 3.3 2.6 2.0 1.8 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.7 3.1 2.7 3.0 2.4 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.6 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.0 2.1 1.2 –.9 –.1 .4 1.0 2.4 1.0 .5 .6 .3 .8 .2 .7 .5 .4 .4 .1 .0 .7 .8 .5 1.0 1.2 1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. 2 Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI–W) (on a 1982-84=100 base). Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). Employment Cost Index—Private Industry Index (December 2005 = 100) Period Total compensation Wages and salaries Percent change from 3 months earlier Benefits 1 Total compensation 12 months earlier Wages and salaries Benefits 1 Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits 1 Not seasonally adjusted 2008: 2009: 2010: 2011: 2012: 2013: 2014: 2015: 2016: 2017: Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ Dec ������������������������������������������ 108.9 110.2 112.5 115.0 117.1 119.4 122.2 124.5 127.2 130.5 109.4 110.8 112.8 114.6 116.6 119.0 121.6 124.2 127.1 130.6 107.7 108.7 111.9 115.9 118.2 120.5 123.5 125.1 127.3 130.2 ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� Seasonally adjusted 2016: Mar ����������������������������������������� June ���������������������������������������� Sept ���������������������������������������� Dec ������������������������������������������ 2017: Mar ����������������������������������������� June ���������������������������������������� Sept ���������������������������������������� Dec ������������������������������������������ 2018: Mar ����������������������������������������� June ���������������������������������������� Sept ���������������������������������������� 125.4 126.1 126.7 127.3 128.3 129.0 130.0 130.6 131.9 132.7 133.7 125.1 126.0 126.6 127.2 128.3 129.0 130.0 130.7 132.0 132.8 133.9 125.9 126.3 127.0 127.5 128.3 129.1 130.0 130.5 131.6 132.7 133.2 2.4 1.2 2.1 2.2 1.8 2.0 2.3 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.6 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.8 2.0 0.9 2.9 3.6 2.0 1.9 2.5 1.3 1.8 2.3 Not seasonally adjusted 0.6 .6 .5 .5 .8 .5 .8 .5 1.0 .6 .8 0.6 .7 .5 .5 .9 .5 .8 .5 1.0 .6 .8 0.5 .3 .6 .4 .6 .6 .7 .4 .8 .8 .4 1.8 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.0 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.1 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.8 2.5 1 Employer costs for employee benefits. Note: The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries. Data exclude farm and household workers. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 15 Productivity and Related Data, Business and Nonfarm Business Sectors Labor productivity (output per hour) Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Hours of all persons 2 Output 1 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Compensation per hour 3 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real compensation per hour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit labor costs Implicit price deflator 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 100.0 97.4 95.9 98.1 100.0 100.6 102.5 104.2 105.2 107.5 103.6 102.0 101.5 103.1 103.6 104.0 104.3 104.9 104.9 104.8 105.0 105.9 107.0 107.0 107.7 108.3 109.3 108.5 108.7 100.1 97.5 96.1 98.2 100.0 100.8 102.8 104.6 105.5 107.9 103.8 102.2 101.8 103.4 104.0 104.4 104.7 105.3 105.2 105.2 105.4 106.3 107.4 107.3 108.1 108.7 109.6 108.8 109.0 94.7 94.9 96.0 98.2 100.0 101.5 103.2 103.8 104.7 106.5 102.4 103.1 103.5 103.6 103.2 103.8 104.1 104.0 103.8 104.6 104.9 105.4 105.8 106.1 106.6 107.4 107.9 108.8 109.1 94.9 95.4 96.3 98.2 100.0 101.5 103.3 104.2 105.3 107.0 102.6 103.2 103.7 103.8 103.6 104.2 104.5 104.4 104.4 105.2 105.6 106.0 106.4 106.6 107.1 107.9 108.4 109.3 109.7 1.6 –2.7 –1.5 2.2 2.0 .6 1.9 1.7 .9 2.3 13.3 –6.2 –1.7 6.3 2.2 1.4 1.3 2.2 –.2 –.4 .9 3.6 4.2 –.3 2.8 2.4 3.7 –2.9 .9 1.7 –2.5 –1.5 2.2 1.8 .8 2.0 1.8 .9 2.2 13.1 –6.2 –1.5 6.5 2.3 1.4 1.4 2.3 –.2 –.2 .9 3.4 4.2 –.3 2.8 2.3 3.4 –2.8 .9 1.5 .2 1.2 2.3 1.9 1.5 1.7 .6 .9 1.7 1.2 2.8 1.6 .1 –1.3 2.2 1.3 –.3 –.8 3.1 1.3 1.7 1.8 .8 2.0 2.9 1.9 3.6 1.0 1.6 .5 1.0 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.8 .8 1.1 1.6 1.1 2.4 2.1 .2 –.6 2.1 1.2 –.2 –.3 3.2 1.5 1.8 1.3 .8 2.1 2.9 1.8 3.6 1.3 Indexes, 2012=100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2014: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2015: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2016: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2017: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2018: I ���������������� II ��������������� III * ����������� 92.8 96.1 99.3 99.2 100.0 100.9 101.6 102.8 102.9 104.1 100.8 101.5 102.3 101.7 102.4 103.0 103.2 102.4 102.5 102.7 103.1 103.5 103.5 103.9 104.6 104.3 104.5 105.4 105.9 92.6 95.9 99.2 99.1 100.0 100.5 101.3 102.6 102.8 103.9 100.4 101.2 102.1 101.6 102.3 102.9 103.0 102.3 102.3 102.6 102.9 103.2 103.4 103.8 104.3 104.3 104.3 105.1 105.7 95.8 92.3 95.2 97.1 100.0 102.4 105.6 109.3 111.1 114.0 103.4 105.0 106.6 107.3 108.3 109.4 109.6 109.7 110.1 110.8 111.4 112.0 112.5 113.5 114.5 115.3 116.0 117.5 118.7 95.7 92.0 95.0 96.9 100.0 102.2 105.4 109.0 110.8 113.8 103.2 104.8 106.5 107.0 108.1 109.2 109.4 109.4 109.8 110.5 111.1 111.7 112.3 113.3 114.3 115.2 115.9 117.3 118.5 103.3 96.0 95.9 97.8 100.0 101.5 103.9 106.3 107.9 109.5 102.6 103.4 104.2 105.4 105.8 106.2 106.2 107.1 107.4 107.9 108.1 108.2 108.7 109.3 109.5 110.6 111.1 111.5 112.1 103.3 95.9 95.8 97.8 100.0 101.7 104.0 106.2 107.8 109.5 102.8 103.6 104.2 105.4 105.6 106.1 106.2 107.0 107.3 107.7 108.0 108.2 108.6 109.2 109.6 110.5 111.1 111.7 112.1 92.8 93.6 95.3 97.3 100.0 101.5 104.2 107.1 108.2 111.9 104.4 103.5 103.9 104.9 106.2 107.2 107.7 107.5 107.5 107.6 108.2 109.7 110.8 111.2 112.7 113.0 114.2 114.4 115.2 92.7 93.6 95.3 97.4 100.0 101.3 104.1 107.3 108.5 112.1 104.2 103.4 103.9 105.0 106.4 107.4 107.9 107.7 107.7 107.9 108.5 109.7 111.0 111.4 112.8 113.3 114.3 114.4 115.3 99.0 100.2 100.4 99.4 100.0 100.0 100.9 103.6 103.4 104.6 101.6 100.3 100.4 101.5 103.4 103.7 103.8 103.6 103.6 103.0 103.1 103.8 104.1 104.4 105.3 104.7 104.9 104.6 104.9 98.9 100.2 100.4 99.5 100.0 99.8 100.9 103.8 103.6 104.8 101.5 100.1 100.4 101.7 103.7 103.9 104.0 103.8 103.8 103.3 103.4 103.9 104.3 104.6 105.3 105.0 105.1 104.6 104.9 Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2014: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2015: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2016: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2017: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2018: I ���������������� II ��������������� III * ����������� 1.0 3.6 3.3 –.1 .8 .9 .7 1.2 .2 1.1 –3.2 3.0 3.2 –2.3 2.8 2.4 .7 –3.0 .2 .7 1.6 1.9 –.2 1.6 2.8 –1.1 .6 3.6 1.9 1.1 3.5 3.4 .0 .9 .5 .8 1.3 .1 1.1 –3.3 3.2 3.8 –2.2 3.1 2.1 .5 –2.9 .3 .9 1.3 1.3 .4 1.6 2.3 –.3 .3 3.0 2.3 –1.0 –3.7 3.2 1.9 3.0 2.4 3.0 3.5 1.7 2.6 –1.7 6.5 6.4 2.3 4.1 4.1 .8 .1 1.6 2.6 2.2 2.2 1.9 3.7 3.5 2.9 2.5 5.1 4.1 –1.0 –3.9 3.3 2.0 3.1 2.2 3.1 3.5 1.6 2.7 –1.6 6.5 6.4 2.2 4.1 4.1 .6 .1 1.6 2.5 2.2 2.3 1.9 3.8 3.6 3.0 2.6 5.0 4.1 –2.0 –7.1 –.1 2.0 2.2 1.5 2.3 2.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 3.4 3.1 4.8 1.3 1.7 .0 3.2 1.4 1.9 .6 .3 2.0 2.1 .7 4.1 1.9 1.5 2.1 –2.1 –7.2 –.1 2.0 2.3 1.7 2.3 2.1 1.5 1.6 1.8 3.2 2.5 4.5 .9 2.0 .1 3.0 1.3 1.6 .9 1.0 1.5 2.2 1.3 3.3 2.3 2.0 1.8 2.7 .9 1.8 2.1 2.8 1.5 2.6 2.9 1.0 3.4 9.7 –3.3 1.5 3.8 5.1 3.8 2.0 –.8 .0 .3 2.5 5.6 4.0 1.3 5.6 1.2 4.3 .5 2.8 2.8 .9 1.9 2.2 2.7 1.3 2.8 3.1 1.1 3.4 9.4 –3.2 2.2 4.2 5.5 3.5 1.9 –.7 .1 .7 2.2 4.7 4.7 1.3 5.1 1.9 3.8 .0 3.1 –1.1 1.2 .1 –1.0 .6 .0 .9 2.7 –.2 1.2 6.9 –5.3 .4 4.7 7.8 1.1 .4 –1.0 .1 –2.3 .6 2.7 1.0 1.2 3.4 –2.1 .8 –1.1 .8 –1.0 1.3 .2 –.9 .5 –.2 1.1 2.9 –.2 1.2 6.6 –5.2 1.1 5.1 8.2 .8 .3 –.8 .1 –2.0 .3 1.9 1.6 1.2 2.9 –1.3 .2 –1.6 1.1 1 Output refers to real gross domestic product originating in the sector. 2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers’ contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed. 4 Hourly compensation divided by consumer price series. The trend for 1978-2017 is based on the consumer price index research series (CPI-U-RS). The change for recent quarters is based on the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U). 5 Current dollar gross domestic output divided by the output index. Note: Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. * Data based on GDP data released on November 28, 2018. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production and capacity utilization rose in December. INDEX, 2012 = 100* (RATIO SCALE) 120 INDEX, 2012 = 100* (RATIO SCALE) 130 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FINAL PRODUCTS 110 120 100 110 90 CONSUMER GOODS BUSINESS EQUIPMENT 80 100 120 MANUFACTURING DURABLE TOTAL1 110 90 100 DEFENSE AND SPACE EQUIPMENT NONDURABLE 90 80 80 140 PERCENT* 86 CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE (TOTAL INDUSTRY) 84 UTILITIES AND MINING 130 82 120 80 MINING 78 110 76 100 74 72 UTILITIES 90 70 68 66 80 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1 SEE FOOTNOTE 1 TABLE BELOW *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Total industrial production 1 Period 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2018 p ������������������ 2017: Dec ����������� 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June r ������� July r �������� Aug r ��������� Sept r �������� Oct r ���������� Nov p �������� Dec p �������� Percent change 2 Index, 2012=100 89.2 94.1 97.1 100.0 102.0 105.2 104.1 102.1 103.7 107.9 105.8 105.4 105.9 106.4 107.7 106.8 107.4 107.9 108.8 108.9 109.1 109.6 109.9 From preceding month ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� ��������������������� 0.5 –.3 .5 .5 1.1 –.8 .6 .4 .8 .1 .2 .4 .3 Chart 17 - Dec 2018 Industry production indexes, 2012=100 Capacity utilization rate (output as percent of capacity) 1 Manufacturing From year earlier –11.5 5.5 3.1 3.0 2.0 3.1 –1.0 –1.9 1.6 4.1 2.9 2.8 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.0 3.5 4.1 5.4 5.6 4.2 4.1 4.0 Total 1 89.5 94.7 97.5 100.0 100.9 102.0 101.5 100.7 101.9 104.4 102.8 102.3 103.8 103.7 104.3 103.3 104.0 104.4 104.9 105.1 105.0 105.0 106.2 Durable 80.6 89.2 94.7 100.0 102.1 105.1 103.9 101.7 103.3 106.8 104.3 104.0 105.6 105.8 106.3 104.7 106.1 106.0 107.5 108.1 107.9 108.4 109.8 Nondurable 97.7 99.8 99.9 100.0 100.0 99.3 99.6 100.4 101.8 103.9 103.1 102.2 103.6 103.1 103.9 103.6 103.9 104.8 104.4 104.2 104.1 103.8 104.7 Other (non-NAICS) 1 120.3 111.2 106.0 100.0 95.0 93.8 90.4 88.0 81.9 76.4 78.3 78.2 79.8 80.1 79.5 77.6 74.4 73.7 73.7 74.7 75.2 74.3 74.5 Mining 83.1 87.2 92.6 100.0 106.3 117.8 113.8 102.7 109.3 123.0 115.1 113.9 117.1 118.4 119.5 120.7 122.8 123.8 126.6 127.3 127.1 128.5 130.5 Utilities 99.0 102.8 102.4 100.0 102.2 103.5 102.7 102.3 101.0 105.4 106.6 108.8 98.4 102.6 108.5 105.7 104.1 104.2 105.4 104.1 107.5 108.9 102.0 Total industry Total manufacturing 68.5 73.6 76.2 77.2 77.6 79.0 77.3 75.3 76.1 78.0 77.3 77.0 77.2 77.5 78.2 77.5 77.8 78.0 78.5 78.4 78.4 78.6 78.7 65.5 70.7 73.6 74.9 75.0 75.8 75.8 74.6 74.8 75.7 75.2 74.7 75.7 75.6 75.9 75.1 75.5 75.7 76.0 76.1 75.9 75.8 76.6 1 Total industry and total manufacturing series include manufacturing as defined in the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) plus those industries—logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory-publishing—that have traditionally been included in manufacturing. 2 Percent changes based on unrounded indexes. Note: Data based on NAICS except series as defined in footnote 1. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 Industrial Production— Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures [2012=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Products and nonindustrial supplies Materials Final products Consumer goods Period Total 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2018 p ������������������ 2017: Dec ����������� 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June r ������� July r �������� Aug r ��������� Sept r �������� Oct r ���������� Nov p �������� Dec p �������� Nonindustrial supplies Total 93.0 96.0 98.2 100.0 100.3 101.3 100.8 99.1 100.3 103.0 101.5 101.7 101.8 102.1 103.6 101.2 102.2 102.4 103.2 103.7 104.3 103.9 104.1 99.2 100.3 101.4 100.0 100.7 101.5 103.0 103.6 103.7 106.0 105.2 105.5 105.3 105.7 107.4 104.6 105.3 105.5 106.0 106.2 107.0 106.3 106.3 Durable goods 85.9 94.2 97.7 100.0 105.5 110.6 115.0 117.5 117.6 120.7 118.4 117.7 120.9 122.0 121.0 116.0 119.8 119.2 121.7 123.3 121.6 121.6 124.9 Equipment Nondurable goods 102.9 101.9 102.3 100.0 99.5 99.2 99.9 100.1 100.1 102.3 101.8 102.4 101.3 101.6 103.9 101.7 101.6 102.1 102.0 102.0 103.3 102.4 101.6 Total 1 81.5 87.8 92.2 100.0 99.6 101.0 96.6 90.2 93.8 97.2 94.4 94.5 95.0 95.2 96.2 94.7 96.5 96.6 98.0 99.0 99.3 99.6 100.4 Business 80.0 86.1 91.1 100.0 99.9 101.7 99.6 94.4 97.4 100.4 98.5 98.5 98.6 98.7 99.6 97.5 99.5 99.7 101.2 102.3 102.6 102.9 103.4 Defense and space Total 93.8 100.9 98.0 100.0 97.1 93.9 91.7 89.1 89.3 91.7 87.5 87.8 88.5 88.7 90.0 89.5 90.4 91.3 92.5 93.9 93.8 94.6 96.8 93.5 96.6 98.0 100.0 102.2 103.9 103.2 103.8 105.1 107.1 106.6 105.8 106.7 106.8 107.6 107.3 107.3 107.0 107.0 106.7 107.0 107.0 107.3 Construction 90.3 93.6 95.8 100.0 103.1 106.4 107.0 108.0 110.8 114.1 112.9 111.2 114.8 113.6 114.3 114.7 114.2 114.1 114.4 113.7 113.3 113.5 115.3 Business 95.0 98.0 99.0 100.0 101.8 102.8 101.4 101.8 102.3 103.7 103.5 103.1 102.7 103.5 104.3 103.6 103.8 103.5 103.3 103.2 103.9 103.8 103.3 Total 1 84.9 91.9 95.9 100.0 103.4 108.5 106.9 103.7 105.9 112.2 108.9 108.2 108.9 109.8 110.9 111.2 111.7 112.6 113.9 113.9 113.7 115.0 115.5 Energy 86.7 90.6 94.1 100.0 105.1 114.0 112.6 106.0 109.3 120.7 115.2 115.2 114.7 116.3 117.7 119.2 119.7 121.4 124.0 124.3 124.2 126.3 126.1 1 Includes other items, not shown separately. [2012=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Durable manufactures Computer and electronic products Primary metals Period Total 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2018 p ������������������ 2017: Dec ����������� 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June r ������� July r �������� Aug r ��������� Sept r �������� Oct r ���������� Nov p �������� Dec p �������� 77.5 95.0 102.0 100.0 103.3 104.0 96.8 92.5 93.9 97.7 94.8 94.8 96.4 97.2 96.8 96.5 95.9 95.3 97.0 97.8 98.7 102.1 102.7 Iron and steel products 70.3 91.8 100.1 100.0 102.1 101.3 91.6 87.3 91.7 96.9 93.5 92.2 95.3 97.7 95.5 95.2 93.5 94.0 96.9 97.2 99.2 102.9 103.3 Fabricated metal products 85.2 90.7 97.1 100.0 101.8 103.6 100.2 96.5 97.6 103.0 99.3 99.9 101.8 102.0 102.0 101.7 103.0 102.7 103.4 103.5 103.7 104.0 104.1 Nondurable manufactures Machinery Total 73.5 82.1 92.5 100.0 95.4 96.7 89.0 82.2 87.5 92.3 91.0 90.0 89.6 88.9 91.0 90.1 90.8 91.2 94.0 94.4 95.1 96.1 95.5 75.6 85.6 92.6 100.0 103.2 107.4 108.1 110.4 113.9 120.1 115.9 116.6 117.2 117.8 118.8 118.4 119.7 121.5 121.7 121.7 121.3 121.8 123.4 Selected high-technology 1 66.6 80.9 91.1 100.0 110.7 122.7 126.7 133.9 139.1 148.7 145.0 144.6 143.7 144.7 145.4 145.4 148.6 150.2 152.9 151.8 150.8 151.5 153.1 Transportation equipment Total 74.6 86.5 90.4 100.0 105.1 111.9 115.0 112.2 111.7 113.5 111.1 110.6 113.1 114.6 113.8 108.1 112.8 111.4 114.3 116.2 114.4 115.0 119.0 1 Computers and peripheral equipment, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 Motor vehicles and parts 62.3 82.7 90.4 100.0 107.2 117.1 123.2 124.8 123.7 127.8 124.6 124.1 129.0 132.7 130.0 118.9 127.4 124.3 128.9 131.7 128.0 128.2 134.3 Apparel 112.7 109.5 102.9 100.0 92.6 88.8 84.3 79.2 71.0 69.1 69.4 69.7 70.6 70.4 71.9 71.2 68.6 72.1 69.5 67.5 66.1 65.1 65.0 Printing and related support activities 103.6 103.5 101.8 100.0 100.3 98.5 97.5 99.2 98.9 97.5 98.7 98.2 98.7 96.5 97.5 98.0 98.2 98.6 96.2 97.7 96.8 95.8 95.9 Chemicals 98.1 101.3 101.4 100.0 96.6 95.6 95.2 94.7 95.6 99.0 97.5 95.9 96.9 97.4 98.5 98.9 99.3 100.2 100.2 99.6 99.7 100.5 101.0 Food 99.9 100.4 100.2 100.0 102.0 102.9 104.4 106.6 111.0 114.7 112.9 112.8 115.6 113.7 115.0 114.5 114.8 116.6 115.8 115.1 114.3 113.4 114.4 New Construction [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Private Period 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2017: Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct p ��������� Total new construction expenditures 1,077.4 906.5 809.3 788.3 850.5 906.4 1,005.6 1,113.6 1,191.8 1,246.0 1,247.5 1,257.3 1,272.6 1,276.3 1,305.5 1,293.1 1,314.7 1,324.3 1,314.8 1,317.7 1,311.8 1,310.8 1,308.8 Residential Total New housing Total 1 768.6 591.6 505.3 501.9 571.1 635.7 729.5 823.3 899.3 962.8 961.6 971.0 983.1 985.9 1,013.3 997.9 1,015.3 1,016.8 1,009.4 1,012.6 999.2 1,003.0 998.7 Federal and State and local Nonresidential 359.2 247.5 242.0 244.1 269.8 323.4 369.8 422.1 467.2 524.9 529.5 538.2 543.7 541.8 560.2 546.6 563.4 561.9 551.7 555.4 540.9 541.7 539.0 Total 230.1 133.9 127.3 123.2 154.5 202.3 235.2 273.7 303.6 330.1 336.0 340.0 343.4 343.0 348.5 344.8 346.6 349.6 347.5 347.0 343.3 345.6 344.6 Lodging 409.4 344.1 263.3 257.8 301.4 312.3 359.7 401.2 432.2 437.8 432.1 432.8 439.4 444.1 453.1 451.3 451.9 454.9 457.8 457.2 458.3 461.3 459.7 Commercial (including farm) Office 35.4 25.4 11.2 8.4 10.2 13.0 16.3 21.3 26.5 28.0 28.0 27.7 29.0 28.9 30.1 30.3 31.0 30.5 30.7 30.7 31.0 32.4 32.9 55.5 37.3 24.4 23.7 27.4 30.1 38.9 47.4 59.6 58.6 57.1 59.1 60.2 61.4 62.8 62.3 62.1 63.1 62.7 63.3 63.4 64.5 66.4 Manufacturing 82.7 51.1 37.2 39.2 44.3 50.9 60.9 63.4 75.0 84.6 84.2 84.9 86.1 85.8 89.6 89.3 88.3 89.7 89.4 87.8 84.9 85.3 84.7 Other 2 53.6 57.4 40.6 39.8 46.8 49.9 58.1 79.3 75.7 65.8 64.8 64.3 64.0 63.8 64.5 63.3 61.3 60.8 64.2 65.1 67.1 67.4 66.8 182.3 173.0 149.9 146.7 172.6 168.3 185.5 189.7 195.3 200.9 198.0 196.7 200.1 204.2 206.2 206.2 209.3 210.9 210.8 210.3 211.9 211.7 208.9 New houses sold New houses for sale at end of period 3 308.7 314.9 304.0 286.4 279.3 270.7 276.1 290.3 292.5 283.2 285.9 286.3 289.5 290.3 292.2 295.2 299.4 307.5 305.4 305.1 312.6 307.8 310.2 1 Includes residential improvements, not shown separately. 2 Includes health care, educational, communication, and power, among other categories not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census). New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates [Thousands of units or houses, except as noted] New housing units authorized 2 New housing units started Type of structure Period Total 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 905.5 554.0 586.9 608.8 780.6 924.9 1,003.3 1,111.8 1,173.8 1,203.0 1 unit 622.0 445.1 471.2 430.6 535.3 617.6 647.9 714.5 781.5 848.9 Type of structure 2–4 units 1 17.5 11.6 11.4 10.9 11.4 13.6 13.7 11.5 11.5 11.4 5 units or more Total 266.0 97.3 104.3 167.3 233.9 293.7 341.7 385.8 380.8 342.7 905.4 583.0 604.6 624.1 829.7 990.8 1,052.1 1,182.6 1,206.6 1,282.0 1 unit 575.6 441.1 447.3 418.5 518.7 620.8 640.3 696.0 750.8 820.0 2–4 units 5 units or more 34.4 20.7 22.0 21.6 25.9 29.0 29.9 32.1 34.8 37.2 295.4 121.1 135.3 184.0 285.1 341.1 382.0 454.5 421.1 424.8 41 38 45 46 40 41 34 36 28 35 40 36 39 418 405 451 391 486 460 424 403 402 387 376 382 441 New housing units completed 1,119.7 794.4 651.7 584.9 649.2 764.4 883.8 968.2 1,059.7 1,152.9 485 375 323 306 368 429 437 501 561 613 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 4 353 234 190 151 150 186 210 232 255 294 10.0 10.6 10.2 9.5 8.7 8.3 7.6 7.1 6.9 7.2 1,144 712 289 1,197 636 294 1,218 633 295 1,289 663 300 1,229 672 297 1,257 633 300 1,251 653 301 1,216 612 308 1,195 606 313 1,230 591 317 1,148 597 322 1,095 544 336 1,099 ������������������ ������������������ �������������������� 6.9 �������������������� �������������������� 7.0 �������������������� �������������������� 6.8 �������������������� �������������������� 7.1 �������������������� �������������������� Seasonally adjusted annual rates 2017: Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept r �������� Oct r ���������� Nov p �������� 1,303 1,210 1,334 1,290 1,327 1,276 1,329 1,177 1,184 1,280 1,237 1,217 1,256 948 847 886 900 882 898 938 851 861 890 879 864 824 ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� 347 359 435 372 431 357 379 316 317 373 349 334 417 1,323 1,320 1,366 1,323 1,377 1,364 1,301 1,292 1,303 1,249 1,270 1,265 1,328 864 877 870 886 851 863 843 853 873 827 854 847 848 1 Monthly data do not meet publication standards because tests for identifiable and stable seasonality do not meet reliability standards. 2 Based on approximately 20,100 permit-issuing places beginning with 2014 and 19,300 beginning with 2004. Using the 2004 universe, the total for 2014 is 1,046.4. 3 Seasonally adjusted. 4 Quarterly data are three-month averages. Annual data are averages of quarterly data. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census). 19 Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade In October, according to preliminary estimates, manufacturing and trade sales rose 0.3 percent, manufacturing and trade inventories rose $12.0 billion and retail inventories rose $5.4 billion. In November, retail sales rose 0.3 percent and retail and food services sales rose 0.2 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,100 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 700 2,000 650 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES 1,900 RETAIL INVENTORIES 600 1,800 550 1,700 500 1,600 450 1,500 RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES SALES 400 RETAIL SALES 1,400 350 RATIO* 1.70 1,300 INVENTORY/SALES RATIO MANUFACTURING AND TRADE SALES 1,200 1.60 RETAIL 1.50 1.40 1,100 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE 1.30 1.20 1,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 2017 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars, except ratios; seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Manufacturing and trade 1 Period Sales 2 Inventories 3 Inventory/sales ratio 4 Wholesale Sales 2 Inventories 3 Retail Inventory/sales ratio 4 2008 �������������������� 1,160,722 1,465,186 1.31 377,030 445,307 1.20 2009 �������������������� 988,802 1,330,869 1.38 319,115 397,383 1.29 2010 �������������������� 1,088,890 1,449,499 1.27 361,447 441,618 1.15 2011 �������������������� 1,206,660 1,564,021 1.26 407,090 487,289 1.15 2012 �������������������� 1,267,248 1,652,863 1.28 434,002 523,034 1.17 2013 �������������������� 1,303,229 1,717,465 1.29 447,546 543,932 1.19 2014 �������������������� 1,340,932 1,776,773 1.31 463,682 575,944 1.22 2015 �������������������� 1,294,787 1,806,740 1.39 441,036 583,576 1.33 2016 �������������������� 1,286,409 1,839,188 1.42 435,490 596,276 1.35 2017 �������������������� 1,356,014 1,903,551 1.41 466,127 617,837 1.30 2017: Oct r ���������� 1,385,361 1,884,375 1.36 477,567 609,856 1.28 r Nov ��������� 1,402,751 1,893,380 1.35 484,150 614,681 1.27 Dec ����������� 1,410,433 1,903,551 1.35 489,855 617,837 1.26 2018: Jan ����������� 1,406,327 1,915,012 1.36 483,516 623,030 1.29 Feb ����������� 1,411,971 1,925,817 1.36 487,805 627,913 1.29 Mar ���������� 1,420,071 1,923,669 1.35 489,608 629,230 1.29 Apr ����������� 1,429,298 1,929,393 1.35 496,410 629,865 1.27 May ���������� 1,447,550 1,935,563 1.34 506,959 631,955 1.25 June ��������� 1,451,814 1,937,569 1.33 505,806 632,717 1.25 July ���������� 1,455,246 1,950,641 1.34 506,874 636,339 1.26 Aug ���������� 1,461,984 1,961,025 1.34 510,369 642,214 1.26 Sept r �������� 1,466,193 1,970,561 1.34 511,058 646,756 1.27 Oct r ���������� 1,470,156 1,982,609 1.35 510,056 652,148 1.28 p Nov �������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� ����������������������� 1 See page 21 for manufacturing. 2 Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. 3 Seasonally adjusted, end of period. 4 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census). 20 Sales 2 Inventories 3 Chart 20 - Dec 2018 Retail and food Inventory/sales services sales 2 ratio 4 327,943 477,183 1.52 301,039 429,188 1.47 318,171 454,548 1.39 341,913 470,803 1.35 358,519 505,652 1.38 371,538 543,640 1.41 386,620 560,686 1.43 393,833 587,892 1.46 404,695 612,018 1.49 422,811 626,525 1.47 432,195 623,318 1.44 435,398 624,844 1.44 435,599 626,525 1.44 434,632 630,503 1.45 434,859 634,194 1.46 437,764 629,727 1.44 439,586 632,396 1.44 444,141 635,001 1.43 444,367 634,638 1.43 446,711 638,148 1.43 446,408 642,073 1.44 446,256 642,971 1.44 451,496 648,324 1.44 452,971 ����������������������� ����������������������� 365,965 338,706 357,081 383,192 402,199 416,814 434,638 445,791 459,575 479,196 488,900 492,754 492,643 492,034 492,530 496,077 497,776 503,955 505,168 508,230 507,872 506,749 512,356 513,531 Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders In November, manufacturers’ durable goods shipments, inventories, and new orders rose, while unfilled orders fell. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 620 580 SHIPMENTS 540 500 460 420 TOTAL 380 340 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 740 INVENTORIES 700 660 620 580 TOTAL 540 500 460 DURABLE GOODS 420 300 380 340 DURABLE GOODS 260 300 220 260 NONDURABLE GOODS 180 220 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 620 580 NEW ORDERS 540 500 460 420 380 NONDURABLE GOODS 180 RATIO* 1.60 INVENTORY/SHIPMENTS RATIO 1.50 TOTAL 340 1.40 300 1.30 DURABLE GOODS 260 220 1.20 1.10 180 2014 2016 2015 2017 2018 2015 2014 2016 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 2017 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturers’ shipments 1 Manufacturers’ inventories 2 Manufacturers’ new orders 1 Chart 21- Dec 2018 Durable goods Period Total Durable goods 2018 Nondurable goods Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, nondefense Manufacturers’ unfilled orders 2 Manufacturers’ inventory/ shipments ratio 3 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted 2008 �������������������� 455,750 2009 �������������������� 368,648 2010 �������������������� 409,273 2011 �������������������� 457,658 2012 �������������������� 474,727 2013 �������������������� 484,145 2014 �������������������� 490,630 2015 �������������������� 459,918 2016 �������������������� 446,225 2017 �������������������� 467,076 2017: Nov ���������� 483,203 Dec ����������� 484,979 2018: Jan ����������� 488,179 Feb ����������� 489,307 Mar ���������� 492,699 Apr ����������� 493,302 May ���������� 496,450 June ��������� 501,641 July ���������� 501,661 Aug ���������� 505,207 Sept ��������� 508,879 r Oct ���������� 508,604 Nov p �������� ��������������������� 218,056 237,694 542,696 171,402 197,246 504,298 190,059 219,214 553,333 206,591 251,067 605,929 218,965 255,762 624,177 224,651 259,495 629,893 233,077 257,553 640,143 231,002 228,916 635,272 226,090 220,135 630,894 234,463 232,614 659,189 241,765 241,438 653,855 242,511 242,468 659,189 243,238 244,941 661,479 245,051 244,256 663,710 247,016 245,683 664,712 247,002 246,300 667,132 247,423 249,027 668,607 251,528 250,113 670,214 251,307 250,354 676,154 253,456 251,751 676,738 255,840 253,039 680,834 254,889 253,715 682,137 256,690 ��������������������� ��������������������� 329,976 212,720 454,344 294,777 209,521 350,478 321,512 231,821 407,992 352,636 253,293 459,305 367,385 256,792 475,809 370,629 259,264 485,611 387,823 252,320 493,833 391,149 244,123 453,290 379,310 251,584 441,061 396,779 262,410 464,953 394,356 259,499 479,664 396,779 262,410 488,343 397,703 263,776 480,449 399,816 263,894 490,295 400,538 264,174 498,443 402,026 265,106 496,409 403,402 265,205 498,401 403,440 266,774 501,612 408,559 267,595 498,925 407,936 268,802 511,974 411,069 269,765 513,217 411,790 270,347 502,654 412,844 ��������������������� ��������������������� 216,650 153,232 188,778 208,238 220,047 226,116 236,280 224,374 220,926 232,339 238,226 245,875 235,508 246,039 252,760 250,109 249,374 251,499 248,571 260,223 260,178 248,939 250,827 73,286 48,926 62,309 71,753 77,674 80,844 81,410 71,502 67,510 73,549 75,005 77,573 74,861 77,475 84,205 78,584 76,796 78,473 75,540 81,095 78,513 74,854 75,364 994,329 1.26 825,987 1.39 871,363 1.28 954,604 1.29 1,014,692 1.30 1,076,059 1.30 1,160,491 1.31 1,128,598 1.39 1,114,849 1.41 1,136,974 1.37 1,129,709 1.35 1,136,974 1.36 1,133,139 1.35 1,138,190 1.36 1,147,769 1.35 1,154,664 1.35 1,160,743 1.35 1,164,840 1.34 1,166,061 1.35 1,176,807 1.34 1,185,282 1.34 1,183,352 1.34 1,181,650 ����������������������� 1 Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. Shipments are the same as sales. 2 Seasonally adjusted, end of period. 3 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. Note: Manufacturers’ nondurable new orders (not shown) are the same as nondurable shipments. Also, there are no unfilled nondurable orders; data shown for total unfilled orders are durable unfilled orders. Total and durable shipments and inventories include data on semiconductors; new and unfilled orders do not. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census). 21 PRICES Producer Prices The producer price index for final demand fell 0.2 in December. Prices for final demand goods fell 0.4 and prices for final demand services fell 0.1 percent. INDEX, NOV. 2009=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, NOV. 2009=100 (RATIO SCALE) 125 125 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED FINAL DEMAND 120 120 FINAL DEMAND GOODS 115 115 FINAL DEMAND 110 110 FINAL DEMAND SERVICES 105 105 100 100 95 95 2012 2013 2014 2016 2015 2017 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [November 2009=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Final demand goods Period Total final demand 1 Total Foods 2 Energy Final demand services Less food and energy Total Trade 3 Transportation and warehousing Other Rel. imp. 4 ����������� 100.0 33.022 5.723 5.577 21.722 65.333 20.290 4.485 40.558 2009 �������������������� ��������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ��������������� ������������� 2010 �������������������� 101.8 102.8 103.7 107.2 101.4 101.3 101.7 103.2 100.9 2011 �������������������� 105.7 109.9 112.5 126.2 104.9 103.4 104.0 110.0 102.5 2012 �������������������� 107.7 111.7 115.9 126.3 106.8 105.4 106.7 114.2 103.9 2013 �������������������� 109.1 112.6 117.8 125.3 107.9 107.1 108.2 115.3 105.8 2014 �������������������� 110.9 114.0 121.6 124.2 109.5 109.0 110.2 117.7 107.5 2015 �������������������� 109.9 109.1 118.4 98.6 109.9 110.0 111.6 115.3 108.7 2016 �������������������� 110.4 107.6 115.1 90.4 110.7 111.5 113.1 113.5 110.6 2017 �������������������� 113.0 111.2 116.5 99.8 113.2 113.5 114.8 115.9 112.8 p 2018 ������������������ 116.2 115.0 116.7 109.9 116.0 116.4 116.8 121.9 115.8 2017: Dec ����������� 114.3 113.1 116.6 105.8 114.2 114.5 115.3 117.9 113.9 2018: Jan ����������� 114.9 113.8 116.7 108.9 114.5 115.1 115.8 117.7 114.5 Feb ����������� 115.1 113.9 116.0 109.0 114.8 115.3 115.9 118.9 114.8 Mar ���������� 115.3 114.2 118.5 106.8 115.2 115.6 115.8 119.5 115.2 Apr ����������� 115.5 114.2 117.0 107.2 115.5 115.8 116.1 120.3 115.2 May ���������� 116.1 115.2 117.5 111.2 115.7 116.1 116.7 121.1 115.4 June ��������� 116.4 115.4 116.1 112.9 116.0 116.5 117.3 121.9 115.7 July r �������� 116.5 115.4 115.8 112.0 116.3 116.7 117.0 122.1 116.0 Aug r ��������� 116.5 115.6 115.3 112.7 116.5 116.6 116.6 121.7 116.2 Sept ��������� 116.5 115.3 114.6 111.5 116.5 116.7 116.2 123.8 116.3 Oct ����������� 117.2 116.0 115.8 114.5 116.5 117.5 118.1 124.5 116.5 Nov ���������� 117.3 115.5 117.3 108.8 116.9 117.8 118.4 126.0 116.6 Dec ����������� 117.1 115.0 120.4 102.9 117.0 117.7 118.1 125.7 116.7 Processed goods Final for intermediate demand demand (1982=100) less foods, energy, Less and food trade Total and (Aug. 2013 energy =100) 2 68.410 ���������������� ���������������� ���������������� ���������������� ���������������� 101.5 102.1 103.3 105.4 108.4 106.5 107.0 107.3 107.6 107.8 108.1 108.3 108.6 108.8 109.0 109.2 109.5 109.5 100.0 172.5 183.4 199.9 200.7 200.8 201.9 188.0 182.2 190.7 200.9 195.1 196.7 197.9 197.8 198.6 201.0 202.3 202.4 202.8 202.6 204.3 202.9 201.0 72.576 173.4 180.8 192.0 192.6 193.8 195.2 189.4 186.9 193.3 201.7 196.2 197.2 198.2 199.3 199.8 201.3 202.2 203.0 203.7 203.9 204.7 204.2 202.8 Unprocessed goods Chart 22 - Dec 2018 for intermediate demand (1982=100) Services for intermediNonfood ate materials demand Total less energy 100.0 175.2 212.2 249.4 241.4 246.7 249.3 189.1 173.4 190.8 200.7 197.0 200.8 204.2 197.0 198.7 203.0 201.0 202.3 194.9 196.5 203.6 192.9 214.5 21.809 100.0 248.4 ����������������� 329.1 101.1 390.4 103.2 369.6 105.3 351.2 107.2 345.7 108.9 296.0 110.2 288.0 112.1 324.1 115.0 340.2 118.6 330.5 116.6 342.1 117.0 342.0 117.3 346.2 117.6 348.4 117.9 347.8 118.2 349.6 118.4 341.8 118.9 333.5 118.9 327.8 119.3 327.8 119.8 335.6 120.0 340.5 120.1 1 Includes final demand construction, not shown separately. 2 Does not include food and beverages for immediate consumption, which are defined as the service of preparing meals, snacks, and beverages to customer order for immediate consumption. 3 Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers. 4 Relative importance, December 2017. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 22 Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers In December, the consumer price index for all urban consumers fell 0.1 percent; it fell 0.3 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index rose 1.9 percent from its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1982-84 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1982-84 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) 260 260 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 250 250 CONSUMER PRICES—ALL ITEMS 240 240 230 230 220 220 210 210 200 200 190 190 180 180 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1982–84=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] All items Period Rel. imp. 4 ����������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2018 �������������������� 2017: Dec ����������� 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� Not seasonally Seasonally adjusted adjusted (NSA) 100.0 214.537 218.056 224.939 229.594 232.957 236.736 237.017 240.007 245.120 251.107 246.524 247.867 248.991 249.554 250.546 251.588 251.989 252.006 252.146 252.439 252.885 252.038 251.233 ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� ����������������� 247.910 249.245 249.619 249.462 250.013 250.535 250.857 251.286 251.846 251.994 252.827 252.876 252.733 All items less food and energy Total 1 79.065 219.235 221.337 225.008 229.755 233.806 237.897 242.247 247.602 252.169 257.565 254.398 255.287 255.751 256.200 256.450 256.889 257.305 257.930 258.141 258.441 258.939 259.481 260.027 Shelter 33.078 249.354 248.396 251.646 257.083 263.056 270.513 278.803 288.230 297.803 307.663 302.336 303.090 303.669 304.747 305.809 306.845 307.272 308.206 309.128 309.610 310.221 311.186 312.090 Medical care 2 8.645 375.613 388.436 400.258 414.924 425.134 435.292 446.752 463.675 475.322 484.707 479.477 481.457 480.949 482.852 483.271 484.253 486.300 485.406 484.303 485.081 485.890 487.664 489.088 Apparel 3.057 120.078 119.503 122.111 126.265 127.411 127.514 125.903 126.045 125.612 125.654 123.829 125.891 127.729 126.929 127.273 127.273 126.171 125.738 123.684 124.838 124.907 123.789 123.824 Food New vehicles 3.704 135.623 138.005 141.883 144.232 145.783 146.275 147.135 147.358 146.992 146.287 146.775 146.660 145.938 145.988 145.269 145.759 146.342 146.845 146.877 146.679 146.372 146.367 146.378 Energy Total 1 At home Away from home 13.255 217.955 219.625 227.842 233.777 237.037 242.725 247.235 247.931 250.065 253.558 251.578 252.070 252.061 252.388 253.056 253.122 253.567 253.927 254.157 254.234 254.036 254.596 255.545 7.244 215.124 215.836 226.201 231.774 233.869 239.456 242.250 239.065 238.589 239.661 239.143 239.325 238.837 239.188 239.867 239.328 239.737 240.131 240.153 239.850 239.327 239.726 240.565 6.011 223.272 226.114 231.401 237.986 243.068 248.981 256.101 262.695 268.826 275.893 271.811 272.772 273.435 273.733 274.393 275.307 275.808 276.125 276.648 277.258 277.513 278.306 279.419 Total 1, 2 7.679 193.126 211.449 243.909 246.080 244.409 243.583 202.895 189.535 204.540 219.941 214.503 220.903 221.104 215.022 218.050 220.006 219.372 218.271 222.368 221.334 226.644 221.712 214.049 Chart 23 - Dec 2018 Gasoline 4.060 201.555 238.594 301.694 311.470 302.577 290.889 212.007 187.602 211.770 240.599 229.924 242.971 240.801 229.021 235.973 240.041 241.332 239.842 247.053 246.524 253.917 243.250 225.014 C-CPI-U (Dec. 1999=100, NSA) 3 ������������������� 123.850 125.615 129.453 131.976 ������������������� ������������������� ������������������� ������������������� ������������������� ������������������� 139.546 140.280 140.898 141.222 141.753 142.296 142.506 142.500 142.554 142.712 142.943 142.470 141.997 1 Includes other items not shown separately. 2 Commodities and services. 3 Chained consumer price index (C-CPI-U) reflects the effect of substitution that consumers make across item categories in response to changes in relative prices. 4 Relative importance, November 2018. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 23 Changes in Producer Prices [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Processed goods Unprocessed goods Change from year earlier Final for intermediate for intermediate (NSA) demand demand demand Services less for foods, intermeTransporLess Nonfood energy, diate tation food Total Final Final materials and demand Trade and Other Total and Total final demand demand less trade wareenergy demand goods services energy housing Final demand goods Period Total final demand 1 Total Foods Energy Final demand services Less food and energy Total Change, December to December, NSA 2009 �������������������� ����������� ���������� ���������� ���������� ����������� ���������� ���������� ������������� ���������� ����������� 2010 �������������������� 2.8 4.7 5.3 12.7 2.4 1.7 2.1 4.3 1.3 ����������� 2011 �������������������� 3.2 4.7 5.7 9.2 3.1 2.3 2.3 6.7 1.8 ����������� 2012 �������������������� 1.9 1.4 4.1 –1.3 1.4 2.2 3.8 2.7 1.4 ����������� 2013 �������������������� 1.2 .8 –.8 .9 1.3 1.3 –.4 2.0 2.0 ����������� 2014 �������������������� .9 –1.2 4.4 –13.2 1.1 2.1 4.0 .8 1.4 1.3 2015 �������������������� –1.1 –3.8 –5.2 –16.4 –.1 .2 .0 –3.5 .8 .3 2016 �������������������� 1.7 1.9 –1.6 6.3 1.7 1.6 1.0 1.1 2.0 1.8 2017 �������������������� 2.5 3.5 2.0 10.1 2.2 2.1 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.3 2018 p ������������������ 2.5 1.7 3.3 –2.7 2.5 2.8 2.5 6.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 6.4 5.7 .4 .1 –2.6 –6.6 1.8 5.0 3.0 –0.1 4.7 3.8 .6 .7 –.1 –3.8 1.6 3.6 3.4 13.3 16.1 6.6 1.4 –1.9 –8.7 –25.3 13.0 5.0 9.1 0.3 .8 .6 –.1 .4 1.2 .6 .0 .2 –.1 .8 –.7 –.9 0.2 .5 .5 .6 .3 .8 .4 .4 .3 .1 .4 –.2 –.7 1.3 1.9 1.7 –3.5 .9 2.2 –1.0 .6 –3.7 .8 3.6 –5.3 11.2 28.9 �������������� ����������� ����������� ������������ 27.6 1.4 ����������� ����������� ������������ 2.4 2.0 3.8 6.9 2.1 –1.6 2.9 1.9 1.6 1.9 –5.6 1.0 1.3 .8 1.6 –5.3 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.8 –18.5 .5 –.9 –4.3 .9 13.7 2.6 .5 –1.4 1.4 8.5 2.9 2.4 3.3 1.8 3.1 3.1 2.8 3.4 2.6 Change, month to month 2017: Dec ����������� 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� July r �������� Aug r ��������� Sept r �������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 0.0 .5 .2 .2 .2 .5 .3 .1 .0 .0 .6 .1 –.2 0.1 .6 .1 .3 .0 .9 .2 .0 .2 –.3 .6 –.4 –.4 –0.2 .1 –.6 2.2 –1.3 .4 –1.2 –.3 –.4 –.6 1.0 1.3 2.6 0.2 2.9 .1 –2.0 .4 3.7 1.5 –.8 .6 –1.1 2.7 –5.0 –5.4 0.1 .3 .3 .3 .3 .2 .3 .3 .2 .0 .0 .3 .1 –0.2 .5 .2 .3 .2 .3 .3 .2 –.1 .1 .7 .3 –.1 –0.4 .4 .1 –.1 .3 .5 .5 –.3 –.3 –.3 1.6 .3 –.3 –0.6 –.2 1.0 .5 .7 .7 .7 .2 –.3 1.7 .6 1.2 –.2 0.2 .5 .3 .3 .0 .2 .3 .3 .2 .1 .2 .1 .1 0.1 .5 .3 .3 .2 .3 .2 .3 .2 .2 .2 .3 .0 1.8 3.5 .0 1.2 .6 –.2 .5 –2.2 –2.4 –1.7 .0 2.4 1.5 0.2 .3 .3 .3 .3 .3 .2 .4 .0 .3 .4 .2 .1 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.9 2.5 2.5 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.0 4.3 4.4 4.4 3.9 3.2 3.6 2.2 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.8 1 Includes final demand construction, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] All items less food and energy Period All items 1 Total 1 Shelter Medical care 2 Apparel Food New vehicles Total 1 At home Addendum: All items, percent change (annual rate) Energy Away from home Total 1, 2 Gasoline C-CPI-U (NSA) 3 From previous quarter 4 From 3 months earlier From 6 months earlier From year earlier (NSA) Change, December to December, NSA 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2018 �������������������� 2.7 1.5 3.0 1.7 1.5 .8 .7 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.8 .8 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.6 2.1 2.2 1.8 2.2 0.3 .4 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.9 3.2 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.2 2.0 3.0 2.6 4.1 1.8 2.0 1.9 –1.1 4.6 1.8 .6 –2.0 –.9 –.1 –1.6 –.1 2017: Dec ����������� 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� 0.2 .5 .2 –.1 .2 .2 .1 .2 .2 .1 .3 .0 –.1 0.2 .3 .2 .2 .1 .2 .2 .2 .1 .1 .2 .2 .2 0.3 .2 .2 .4 .3 .3 .1 .3 .3 .2 .2 .3 .3 0.3 .4 –.1 .4 .1 .2 .4 –.2 –.2 .2 .2 .4 .3 –0.3 1.7 1.5 –.6 .3 .0 –.9 –.3 –1.6 .9 .1 –.9 .0 4.9 –.2 3.2 1.6 .4 .5 .2 .3 –.5 –.3 –0.5 1.5 4.7 1.8 1.1 3.4 .8 –.2 1.6 1.6 –2.4 1.7 6.0 1.3 .4 3.7 –.4 –2.0 .9 .6 1.9 1.3 2.9 2.5 2.1 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.8 18.2 7.7 6.6 .5 .5 –10.6 –12.6 5.4 6.9 –.3 53.5 13.8 9.9 1.7 –1.0 –21.0 –19.7 9.1 10.7 –2.1 2.5 1.3 2.9 1.5 1.3 .5 .4 1.8 1.7 1.8 ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� �������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� ������������� –0.4 1.6 3.2 2.1 1.5 1.6 .1 1.3 2.1 2.4 0.2 .1 –.2 .1 .3 –.2 .2 .2 .0 –.1 –.2 .2 .3 0.2 .4 .2 .1 .2 .3 .2 .1 .2 .2 .1 .3 .4 –0.2 3.0 .1 –2.8 1.4 .9 –.3 –.5 1.9 –.5 2.4 –2.2 –3.5 –0.8 5.7 –.9 –4.9 3.0 1.7 .5 –.6 3.0 –.2 3.0 –4.2 –7.5 –0.1 .5 .4 .2 .4 .4 .1 .0 .0 .1 .2 –.3 –.3 3.3 ������������� ������������� 3.5 ������������� ������������� 1.7 ������������� ������������� 2.0 ������������� ������������� 1.8 2.5 4.4 3.6 2.5 1.2 1.5 2.3 2.1 2.1 1.8 2.5 1.6 1.2 3.2 4.1 3.6 2.5 2.8 2.5 2.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.3 1.9 1.5 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.3 2.5 2.2 1.9 Change, month to month 0.5 –.1 –.5 .0 –.5 .3 .4 .3 .0 –.1 –.2 .0 .0 0.2 .2 .0 .1 .3 .0 .2 .1 .1 .0 –.1 .2 .4 1 Includes other items not shown separately. 2 Commodities and services. 3 Chained consumer price index (C-CPI-U) reflects the effect of substitution that consumers make across item categories in response to changes in relative prices. 4 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 24 Prices Received and Paid by Farmers In October, prices received by farmers fell 3.5 percent and prices paid by farmers rose 0.5 percent. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) INDEX, 2011=100 (RATIO SCALE) 130 INDEX, 2011=100 (RATIO SCALE) 130 120 120 PRICES PAID 110 110 100 100 PRICES RECEIVED 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 RATIO1 RATIO1 140 140 RATIO 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 2010 2012 2011 2013 2014 2016 2015 2018 2017 1RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [2011=100; not seasonally adjusted] Prices received by farmers 1 Period 2008 ��������������������������������������������������� 2009 ��������������������������������������������������� 2010 ��������������������������������������������������� 2011 ��������������������������������������������������� 2012 ��������������������������������������������������� 2013 ��������������������������������������������������� 2014 ��������������������������������������������������� 2015 ��������������������������������������������������� 2016 ��������������������������������������������������� 2017 ��������������������������������������������������� 2017: Oct ������������������������������������������ Nov ����������������������������������������� Dec ������������������������������������������ 2018: Jan ������������������������������������������ Feb ������������������������������������������ Mar ����������������������������������������� Apr ������������������������������������������ May ����������������������������������������� June ���������������������������������������� July ����������������������������������������� Aug ����������������������������������������� Sept ���������������������������������������� Oct p ���������������������������������������� Agricultural production 91.7 80.6 86.8 100.0 105.0 107.0 107.9 99.2 90.6 93.4 87.8 91.4 92.1 86.1 91.1 95.1 92.9 94.8 95.1 91.5 89.5 88.2 85.1 Crop production 95.9 85.7 87.0 100.0 107.0 105.7 92.3 87.0 86.2 86.2 82.7 81.9 84.7 78.6 86.9 88.0 88.4 89.1 90.3 86.9 89.9 88.1 80.1 Chart 25 - Nov 2018 Prices paid by farmers Livestock production 86.1 73.8 85.7 100.0 102.5 108.5 128.7 113.4 94.4 99.9 94.3 101.8 99.6 94.5 94.2 99.8 95.8 98.3 98.5 95.4 89.3 88.3 91.3 All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates (PPITW) 2 90.0 87.3 90.0 100.0 104.4 106.3 112.0 110.7 105.9 106.6 106.8 107.1 107.4 108.2 109.0 109.0 108.7 109.0 108.7 109.1 109.1 108.9 109.4 Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates (PITW) 89.5 86.4 89.0 100.0 104.8 106.7 113.1 111.6 105.8 106.2 106.4 106.7 107.0 107.9 108.7 108.7 108.2 108.6 108.2 108.6 108.6 108.4 108.9 Production items 88.3 84.8 87.7 100.0 105.4 107.4 114.1 112.0 104.7 104.5 104.6 105.0 105.4 105.4 106.3 106.3 106.1 106.5 106.1 106.1 106.1 105.8 106.2 Ratio of prices received by farmers to PPITW 102 92 96 100 100 100 96 90 85 87 82 85 86 80 83 87 85 87 87 84 83 81 78 1 Annual indexes for 2011 forward reflect revised methodology. See Agricultural Price Program Update, January 2015 for details. 2 Includes items not shown separately. Note: These indexes are also available on a 1910-14=100 basis, as required by statute. Source: Department of Agriculture (National Agricultural Statistics Service). 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock and Debt Measures In December, M2 rose. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 14,800 14,000 13,200 12,400 11,600 10,800 10,000 14,800 14,000 13,200 12,400 11,600 10,800 10,000 M2 9,200 9,200 8,400 8,400 7,600 7,600 6,800 6,800 6,000 6,000 5,200 5,200 4,400 4,400 3,600 3,600 M1 3,200 3,200 2,800 2,800 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 *AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures, except debt end-of-period basis; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period 2009: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2010: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2011: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2012: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2013: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2014: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2015: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2016: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2017: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2018: Dec p ��������������������������������������� 2017: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2018: Jan ������������������������������������������ Feb ������������������������������������������ Mar r ��������������������������������������� Apr r ���������������������������������������� May r ��������������������������������������� June r �������������������������������������� July r ��������������������������������������� Aug r ���������������������������������������� Sept r ��������������������������������������� Oct r ����������������������������������������� Nov p ��������������������������������������� Dec p ��������������������������������������� M1 M2 Debt Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers checks, and other checkable deposits M1 plus savings deposits, retail MMMF balances, and small time deposits 1 Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors 2 1,694.1 1,837.5 2,164.6 2,461.1 2,664.1 2,940.1 3,094.5 3,341.6 3,598.7 3,780.7 3,598.7 3,647.1 3,614.2 3,664.5 3,660.6 3,653.9 3,658.1 3,667.2 3,700.7 3,727.3 3,738.1 3,716.2 3,780.7 8,483.7 8,789.3 9,651.1 10,445.9 11,015.9 11,671.0 12,337.5 13,210.4 13,836.5 14,455.1 13,836.5 13,844.4 13,870.3 13,934.7 13,958.4 14,028.8 14,115.3 14,147.0 14,210.9 14,241.2 14,269.8 14,317.5 14,455.1 36,109.9 37,475.2 38,684.4 40,375.9 41,795.9 43,456.7 45,187.1 47,185.9 49,131.4 ��������������������������������������������� 49,131.4 ��������������������������������������������� ��������������������������������������������� 49,904.5 ��������������������������������������������� ��������������������������������������������� 50,772.5 ��������������������������������������������� ��������������������������������������������� 51,323.8 ��������������������������������������������� ��������������������������������������������� ��������������������������������������������� Percent change From previous period 4 From year or 6 months earlier 3 M1 M2 5.7 8.5 17.8 13.7 8.2 10.4 5.3 8.0 7.7 5.1 5.4 6.6 2.8 5.6 3.8 2.6 3.3 1.1 4.8 3.4 4.2 3.4 6.7 Chart 26 - Dec 2018 Debt 3.7 3.6 9.8 8.2 5.5 5.9 5.7 7.1 4.7 4.5 4.3 3.4 3.0 3.3 2.9 3.5 4.0 4.4 4.9 4.4 4.5 4.1 4.8 3.7 4.3 3.6 4.8 3.8 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.0 ������������������������������� 3.3 ������������������������������� ������������������������������� 6.3 ������������������������������� ������������������������������� 5.2 ������������������������������� ������������������������������� 4.4 ������������������������������� ������������������������������� ������������������������������� 1 Money market mutual fund (MMMF). Savings deposits include money market deposit accounts (MMDA). 2 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. Quarterly data shown in last month of quarter. End-of-year data are for fourth quarter. 3 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a simple annual rate. 4 Debt growth of domestic nonfinancial sectors is the seasonally adjusted borrowing flow divided by the seasonally adjusted level of debt outstanding in the previous period. Annual changes are from fourth quarter to fourth quarter; quarterly changes are from previous quarter at an annual rate. Note: See p. 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 26 Components of Money Stock [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period 2009: Dec ����������� 2010: Dec ����������� 2011: Dec ����������� 2012: Dec ����������� 2013: Dec ����������� 2014: Dec ����������� 2015: Dec ����������� 2016: Dec ����������� 2017: Dec ����������� 2018: Dec p �������� 2017: Dec ����������� 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May r �������� June r ������� July r �������� Aug r ��������� Sept r �������� Oct r ���������� Nov p �������� Dec p �������� Currency 863.7 918.8 1,001.6 1,090.7 1,160.7 1,253.3 1,339.6 1,421.3 1,525.8 1,625.6 1,525.8 1,538.2 1,540.2 1,548.7 1,558.0 1,569.0 1,580.3 1,589.8 1,598.9 1,610.7 1,617.1 1,621.2 1,625.6 Nonbank travelers checks Other checkable deposits (OCDs) Demand deposits At commercial banks Total 5.1 4.7 4.3 3.8 3.5 2.9 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 447.2 517.6 752.3 927.4 1,034.2 1,199.7 1,238.7 1,372.0 1,478.3 1,521.9 1,478.3 1,503.8 1,475.8 1,510.1 1,490.4 1,472.0 1,463.3 1,458.7 1,476.5 1,487.4 1,479.6 1,461.8 1,521.9 378.0 396.4 406.5 439.1 465.8 484.2 513.7 546.2 592.8 631.5 592.8 603.2 596.3 603.9 610.4 611.1 612.6 617.0 623.5 627.5 639.7 631.5 631.5 At thrift institutions 229.9 234.1 231.6 243.5 255.7 265.0 276.1 288.2 306.1 336.5 306.1 315.8 311.9 314.1 318.0 321.8 318.0 323.2 328.6 330.0 341.2 336.6 336.5 148.1 162.2 174.8 195.6 210.1 219.1 237.6 258.0 286.7 295.0 286.7 287.4 284.4 289.7 292.4 289.3 294.6 293.7 295.0 297.5 298.5 294.9 295.0 Savings deposits (including MMDAs) Small-denomination time deposits 1 At commercial banks At commercial banks Total 4,810.7 5,330.8 6,033.4 6,683.8 7,130.0 7,577.3 8,178.1 8,826.2 9,122.5 9,283.9 9,122.5 9,080.1 9,122.4 9,124.8 9,132.3 9,175.9 9,234.0 9,239.2 9,251.6 9,232.5 9,220.2 9,248.8 9,283.9 3,977.9 4,411.7 5,037.4 5,727.9 6,109.6 6,499.5 7,033.7 7,566.4 7,823.7 7,941.8 7,823.7 7,773.2 7,804.0 7,786.3 7,824.9 7,850.8 7,906.4 7,907.9 7,917.6 7,902.1 7,886.8 7,917.2 7,941.8 At thrift institutions 832.8 919.1 996.0 955.9 1,020.4 1,077.8 1,144.5 1,259.8 1,298.8 1,342.1 1,298.8 1,306.9 1,318.4 1,338.5 1,307.4 1,325.1 1,327.6 1,331.3 1,334.0 1,330.4 1,333.4 1,331.7 1,342.1 Total 1,187.9 934.5 777.0 645.7 569.9 522.2 411.1 350.4 410.0 558.4 410.0 416.4 422.0 431.7 443.9 456.2 469.2 480.2 492.4 505.5 517.5 537.3 558.4 868.8 664.0 548.4 468.9 425.6 390.4 301.0 249.6 299.7 440.3 299.7 307.2 315.5 326.9 344.2 355.0 366.7 375.9 384.5 395.7 405.8 422.2 440.3 Retail money funds At thrift institutions 319.1 270.5 228.6 176.8 144.4 131.7 110.1 100.8 110.4 118.1 110.4 109.2 106.5 104.8 99.7 101.2 102.5 104.2 108.0 109.8 111.7 115.1 118.1 790.9 686.5 676.1 655.3 651.9 631.3 653.8 692.2 705.2 832.2 705.2 700.7 711.7 713.8 721.5 742.7 754.1 760.4 766.1 775.8 794.0 815.2 832.2 Institutional money funds 2 2,246.6 1,885.3 1,751.4 1,730.5 1,764.8 1,793.9 1,822.8 1,742.0 1,827.3 1,856.8 1,827.3 1,831.1 1,835.0 1,849.7 1,867.2 1,860.4 1,879.8 1,875.4 1,860.1 1,869.9 1,849.6 1,851.0 1,856.8 1 Small-denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000. 2 Institutional money funds are not part of non-M1 M2. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base [Averages of daily figures 1; millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted] Reserves of depository institutions Reserve balances maintained Period Total 2009: Dec ������������ 2010: Dec ������������ 2011: Dec ������������ 2012: Dec ������������ 2013: Dec ������������ 2014: Dec ������������ 2015: Dec ������������ 2016: Dec ������������ 2017: Dec ������������ 2018: Dec p ��������� 2017: Dec ������������ 2018: Jan ������������ Feb ������������ Mar ����������� Apr ������������ May ����������� June ���������� July ����������� Aug ����������� Sept ���������� Oct ������������ Nov ����������� Dec p ��������� 1,099,831 1,035,074 1,550,043 1,517,425 2,485,248 2,606,700 2,419,774 2,031,007 2,244,274 1,691,394 2,244,274 2,214,601 2,238,775 2,167,009 2,086,192 2,022,453 1,988,224 1,949,820 1,911,165 1,873,866 1,830,017 1,775,291 1,691,394 To satisfy reserve balance requirements 2 That exceed the top of the penalty-free band ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ 75,713 90,852 97,981 116,285 135,719 135,698 135,719 138,807 135,786 131,778 138,481 140,316 137,568 137,861 135,544 138,965 135,731 138,700 135,698 ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ ������������������ 2,409,535 2,515,848 2,321,793 1,914,722 2,108,555 1,555,696 2,108,555 2,075,794 2,102,989 2,035,232 1,947,710 1,882,137 1,850,656 1,811,960 1,775,621 1,734,901 1,694,286 1,636,591 1,555,696 Reserve balance requirements 3 24,632 28,438 47,838 58,675 69,030 82,770 89,313 105,944 123,720 123,703 123,720 126,792 124,006 120,285 126,415 128,144 125,503 125,736 123,620 126,756 123,821 126,537 123,703 Borrowings from the Federal Reserve Vault cash used to satisfy required reserves 40,619 42,927 48,672 52,959 55,771 59,236 61,413 64,280 65,549 68,462 65,549 66,417 66,481 63,866 64,855 64,124 64,525 64,792 64,929 64,145 65,781 65,537 68,462 Nonborrowed 4 970,523 1,032,512 1,589,189 1,569,588 2,540,849 2,665,835 2,481,082 2,095,247 2,309,747 1,759,780 2,309,747 2,280,960 2,305,236 2,230,859 2,150,996 2,086,483 2,052,605 2,014,388 1,975,833 1,937,721 1,895,589 1,840,731 1,759,780 Monetary base 5 2,026,220 2,017,000 2,619,586 2,675,945 3,717,450 3,934,455 3,835,810 3,531,565 3,850,969 3,400,828 3,850,969 3,824,795 3,855,056 3,800,608 3,727,119 3,674,755 3,650,485 3,618,272 3,584,476 3,559,894 3,520,954 3,476,401 3,400,828 Total 6 169,927 45,488 9,526 795 170 102 106 39 75 76 75 58 20 16 51 94 143 224 261 290 209 97 76 Primary Secondary 19,025 41 103 12 13 22 38 13 43 18 43 51 7 4 16 25 17 20 18 38 21 11 18 518 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Seasonal 37 26 23 23 59 80 67 25 33 58 33 7 14 12 35 69 126 203 243 252 189 86 58 Term assetbacked securities loan facility 7 46,310 25,025 9,400 760 98 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Data are prorated averages of biweekly (maintenance period) averages of daily figures. 2 Equals the sum of balances maintained up to the top of each institution’s penalty-free band. 3 Excludes vault cash used to satisfy required reserves. 4 Total reserve balances maintained plus vault cash used to satisfy required reserves less total borrowings from the Federal Reserve. 5 Equals total balances maintained plus currency in circulation (not shown). 6 Includes term auction credit (December 2007 to April 2010), primary dealer and other broker-dealer credit (March 2008 to February 2010), credit extended to American International Group, Inc. (September 2008 to January 2011), asset-backed commercial paper money market mutual fund liquidity facility (September 2008 to February 2010), and other credit extensions, not shown separately. 7 Includes credit extended by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to eligible borrowers through the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility. Note: Data reflect the creation of a penalty-free band around reserve balance requirements which took effect June 27, 2013. See H.3 release of July 11, 2013. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks Total commercial bank loans and leases rose 0.8 percent in December. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 14,000 ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 12,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 14,000 12,000 TOTAL 10,000 9,000 8,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 7,000 LOANS AND LEASES 6,000 6,000 5,000 5,000 4,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 U.S. TREASURY AND AGENCY SECURITIES 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 800 800 OTHER SECURITIES 400 400 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1] Securities in bank credit 2 Period 2009: Dec r ��������� 2010: Dec r ��������� 2011: Dec r ��������� 2012: Dec r ��������� 2013: Dec r ��������� 2014: Dec r ��������� 2015: Dec r ��������� 2016: Dec r ��������� 2017: Dec r ��������� 2018: Dec p �������� 2017: Dec r ��������� 2018: Jan r ��������� Feb r ��������� Mar r �������� Apr r ��������� May r �������� June r ������� July r �������� Aug r ��������� Sept r �������� Oct r ���������� Nov p �������� Dec p �������� Total bank credit 8,783.2 8,983.0 9,108.1 9,626.2 9,827.5 10,539.5 11,343.8 12,095.1 12,548.2 13,081.3 12,548.2 12,565.4 12,564.5 12,589.9 12,655.2 12,676.3 12,753.6 12,797.6 12,817.2 12,845.9 12,891.4 12,953.1 13,081.3 Total securities 2,326.1 2,427.0 2,493.5 2,733.7 2,721.6 2,932.1 3,110.9 3,316.9 3,436.9 3,501.7 3,436.9 3,431.0 3,401.2 3,385.6 3,370.2 3,376.7 3,410.0 3,420.3 3,422.5 3,419.1 3,424.9 3,447.5 3,501.7 U.S. Treasury and agency securities 1,446.4 1,641.1 1,699.2 1,872.8 1,809.3 2,040.9 2,226.8 2,413.7 2,527.7 2,672.8 2,527.7 2,521.2 2,500.6 2,499.1 2,504.7 2,518.0 2,546.0 2,556.9 2,562.4 2,565.3 2,572.7 2,602.0 2,672.8 Loans and leases in bank credit Other securities 879.7 785.9 794.3 860.9 912.3 891.3 884.2 903.2 909.2 829.0 909.2 909.8 900.6 886.4 865.6 858.7 864.0 863.5 860.2 853.8 852.3 845.4 829.0 Total loans and leases 3 6,457.1 6,556.0 6,614.7 6,892.5 7,105.9 7,607.3 8,232.8 8,778.1 9,111.3 9,579.6 9,111.3 9,134.4 9,163.2 9,204.4 9,285.0 9,299.6 9,343.6 9,377.3 9,394.7 9,426.9 9,466.5 9,505.7 9,579.6 Commercial and industrial loans 1,265.3 1,192.4 1,303.8 1,474.4 1,574.3 1,773.4 1,953.2 2,092.0 2,112.5 2,316.9 2,112.5 2,118.2 2,120.0 2,137.6 2,181.2 2,184.4 2,202.8 2,220.1 2,220.8 2,226.4 2,245.7 2,277.0 2,316.9 Chart 28 - Dec 2018 Real estate loans Total 4 3,776.9 3,613.5 3,495.0 3,550.7 3,531.9 3,638.8 3,871.9 4,119.7 4,289.6 4,413.7 4,289.6 4,301.9 4,316.3 4,331.1 4,343.3 4,340.1 4,352.2 4,363.3 4,371.6 4,391.9 4,404.2 4,405.0 4,413.7 Revolving home equity loans 603.2 581.6 549.6 515.3 473.7 457.8 440.6 410.7 381.2 348.5 381.2 378.8 376.1 372.9 369.9 365.8 362.6 359.9 357.2 354.8 352.8 350.4 348.5 Commercial loans 1,640.9 1,500.5 1,418.3 1,428.3 1,498.3 1,605.5 1,781.7 1,965.0 2,087.6 2,187.0 2,087.6 2,095.6 2,105.3 2,114.9 2,122.9 2,132.3 2,142.7 2,148.4 2,154.2 2,165.7 2,177.4 2,182.2 2,187.0 Consumer loans 5 835.8 1,107.3 1,086.3 1,102.6 1,128.0 1,186.5 1,258.4 1,354.8 1,425.7 1,494.5 1,425.7 1,430.3 1,435.1 1,441.3 1,460.3 1,464.7 1,470.0 1,473.5 1,477.6 1,482.3 1,489.9 1,494.2 1,494.5 All other loans and leases 6 579.2 642.7 729.6 764.6 871.7 1,008.6 1,149.4 1,211.7 1,283.5 1,354.6 1,283.5 1,283.9 1,291.8 1,294.5 1,300.1 1,310.3 1,318.5 1,320.4 1,324.7 1,326.2 1,326.7 1,329.5 1,354.6 1 Data are prorated averages of Wednesday values for domestically chartered commercial banks, branches and agencies of foreign banks, and Edge Act and agreement corporations. 2 Includes securities held in trading accounts, held-to-maturity, and available-for-sale. Excludes all non-security trading assets, such as derivatives with a positive fair value or loans held in trading accounts. 3 Excludes unearned income. Includes the allowance for loan and lease losses. Excludes Federal funds sold to, reverse repurchase agreements (RPs) with, and loans to commercial banks in the United States. Includes all loans held in trading accounts under a fair value option. 4 Includes closed-end residential loans, not shown separately. 5 Includes credit cards and other consumer loans. 6 Includes other items, not shown separately. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 28 Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses External (Net increase in liabilities) Funds raised in markets Period Total 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2016: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2017: I ���������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2018: I ���������������� II ��������������� III p ������������ Internal 1 1,760.4 1,201.9 2,180.6 2,666.8 2,805.5 2,851.3 3,322.8 3,356.4 3,234.2 2,952.1 2,816.2 4,122.1 3,211.9 2,786.6 2,460.4 2,864.8 3,408.6 3,074.5 2,672.0 2,356.0 3,233.7 1,421.6 1,450.8 1,693.3 1,772.9 1,820.6 1,925.5 1,941.3 1,943.4 1,849.0 1,774.4 1,925.3 1,835.7 1,815.6 1,819.4 1,887.2 1,921.8 2,049.1 1,239.5 2,262.6 2,241.8 2,303.3 Total net funds raised Total 338.8 –248.9 487.3 893.9 984.9 925.8 1,381.5 1,413.0 1,385.2 1,177.7 890.9 2,286.4 1,396.3 967.2 573.2 943.0 1,359.5 1,835.0 409.4 114.2 930.4 –64.2 –373.2 –313.4 –132.9 –4.5 36.5 30.6 33.9 –170.2 170.5 222.2 –329.0 –185.3 –388.6 249.0 319.9 170.8 –57.6 –108.5 –181.7 123.9 Net new equity issues –315.6 –51.2 –250.7 –454.6 –344.9 –352.9 –394.5 –549.6 –576.8 –319.3 –617.9 –638.6 –672.2 –378.4 –359.3 –220.5 –474.8 –222.4 –403.0 –834.4 –265.0 Credit market instruments Total Securities and mortgages Loans and short-term paper 112.6 140.4 105.7 81.3 205.2 264.6 247.3 487.9 336.8 319.7 565.5 396.6 419.4 –34.4 458.7 283.5 349.9 187.0 324.5 95.7 199.8 138.8 –462.5 –168.4 240.3 135.3 124.8 177.8 95.7 69.9 170.0 274.5 –86.9 67.4 24.1 149.5 256.9 295.7 –22.2 –30.1 557.0 189.1 251.3 –322.0 –62.7 321.6 340.4 389.4 425.1 583.6 406.6 489.8 840.1 309.6 486.9 –10.2 608.3 540.4 645.6 164.8 294.5 652.7 388.9 Other 2 205.0 12.3 639.0 828.0 800.1 702.2 1,166.0 966.3 1,146.9 758.7 273.3 2,007.2 1,177.1 1,130.0 3.8 356.8 946.4 1,727.9 321.2 331.9 668.5 Total 1,082.8 1,281.7 1,875.8 1,920.4 2,043.1 2,511.2 2,667.1 3,416.9 3,195.9 2,865.8 2,490.5 4,088.1 3,322.8 2,882.1 2,379.7 2,830.0 3,156.1 3,097.2 2,696.1 1,819.8 2,495.3 Capital expenditures 3 1,414.6 1,077.2 1,300.4 1,425.0 1,611.3 1,676.0 1,818.7 1,915.7 1,770.1 1,889.8 1,774.4 1,779.3 1,742.4 1,784.1 1,827.5 1,865.3 1,938.8 1,927.4 1,999.0 2,009.1 2,117.6 Increase in financial assets –331.8 204.5 575.4 495.4 431.8 835.2 848.4 1,501.2 1,425.8 976.0 716.1 2,308.8 1,580.4 1,098.0 552.2 964.7 1,217.3 1,169.8 697.1 –189.3 377.7 Discrepancy (sources less uses) 677.6 –79.8 304.9 746.4 762.4 340.2 655.6 –60.5 38.3 86.3 325.7 34.0 –110.9 –95.4 80.7 34.8 252.5 –22.7 –24.0 536.2 738.4 1 Profits before tax (book) less taxes on corporate income, less net dividends, plus capital consumption allowance (consumption of fixed capital plus capital consumption adjustment), foreign earnings retained abroad, inventory valuation adjustment, and net capital transfers. 2 Includes trade payables, taxes payable, and miscellaneous liabilities (foreign direct investment in the U.S., pension fund contributions payable, and other). 3 Nonresidential fixed investment plus residential fixed investment, inventory change with inventory valuation adjustment, and nonproduced nonfinancial assets. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Consumer Credit [Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Net change in consumer credit outstanding 1 Consumer credit outstanding (end of period) Period Total 2008: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2009: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2010: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2011: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2012: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2013: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2014: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2015: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2016: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2017: Dec ������������������������������������������ 2017: Nov r ���������������������������������������� Dec r ���������������������������������������� 2018: Jan r ���������������������������������������� Feb r ���������������������������������������� Mar ����������������������������������������� Apr r ���������������������������������������� May r ��������������������������������������� June r �������������������������������������� July r ��������������������������������������� Aug r ���������������������������������������� Sept r ��������������������������������������� Oct r ����������������������������������������� Nov p ��������������������������������������� Nonrevolving 2 Revolving 2,643.8 2,555.0 2,646.8 2,757.1 2,918.3 3,093.4 3,314.6 3,413.6 3,643.7 3,826.4 3,814.9 3,826.4 3,838.2 3,849.3 3,857.7 3,858.4 3,881.2 3,886.3 3,901.4 3,922.4 3,932.1 3,957.0 3,979.2 1,004.0 916.1 839.1 840.6 844.3 855.6 889.1 907.9 969.4 1,024.0 1,019.8 1,024.0 1,025.2 1,025.2 1,023.5 1,014.9 1,023.5 1,022.5 1,023.4 1,028.1 1,028.0 1,037.4 1,042.2 1,639.8 1,638.9 1,807.7 1,916.4 2,074.0 2,237.8 2,425.4 2,505.7 2,674.2 2,802.4 2,795.1 2,802.4 2,813.0 2,824.1 2,834.2 2,843.6 2,857.7 2,863.8 2,878.0 2,894.4 2,904.0 2,919.7 2,937.0 Total Nonrevolving 2 Revolving 34.3 –88.8 91.8 110.3 161.2 175.1 221.2 99.0 230.1 182.7 28.7 11.5 11.8 11.1 8.4 .7 22.8 5.1 15.1 21.0 9.7 24.9 22.2 2.4 –87.9 –77.0 1.5 3.7 11.3 33.5 18.8 61.5 54.6 10.6 4.2 1.2 .0 –1.7 –8.6 8.6 –1.0 .9 4.7 –.1 9.4 4.8 31.9 –.9 168.8 108.7 157.6 163.8 187.6 80.3 168.5 128.2 18.2 7.3 10.6 11.1 10.1 9.4 14.1 6.1 14.2 16.4 9.6 15.7 17.3 1 Change based on data in billions of dollars as shown here. For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month. 2 Includes automobile loans and all other loans not included in revolving credit, such as loans for mobile homes, education, boats, trailers, or vacations. These loans may be secured or unsecured. Note: Data include student loans extended by the Federal Government and by SLM Holding Corporation. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 Interest Rates and Bond Yields Interest rates were mixed in December. PERCENT PER ANNUM 10 PERCENT PER ANNUM 10 8 8 6 6 CORPORATE Aaa BONDS (MOODY'S) 4 4 2 2 FEDERAL FUNDS RATE TREASURY BILLS 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] Chart 30 - Dec 2018 U.S. Treasury security yields Period 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2018 �������������������� 2017: Dec ����������� 2018: Jan ����������� Feb ����������� Mar ���������� Apr ����������� May ���������� June ��������� July ���������� Aug ���������� Sept ��������� Oct ����������� Nov ���������� Dec ����������� Week ended: 2018: Dec 29 ������ 2019: Jan 5 �������� 12 ������� 19 ������� 26 ������� 3-month bills (at auction) 1 Constant maturities 2 3-year 10-year 30-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor’s) 3 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody’s) Discount window primary credit (N.Y. F.R. Bank) 4 Prime rate charged by banks 4 Federal funds rate 5 New-home mortgage yields (FHFA) 6 0.16 .14 .06 .09 .06 .03 .06 .33 .94 1.94 1.35 1.43 1.53 1.70 1.76 1.87 1.91 1.96 2.03 2.13 2.24 2.34 2.38 1.43 1.11 .75 .38 .54 .90 1.02 1.00 1.58 2.63 1.96 2.15 2.36 2.42 2.52 2.66 2.65 2.70 2.71 2.84 2.94 2.91 2.67 3.26 3.22 2.78 1.80 2.35 2.54 2.14 1.84 2.33 2.91 2.40 2.58 2.86 2.84 2.87 2.98 2.91 2.89 2.89 3.00 3.15 3.12 2.83 4.08 4.25 3.91 2.92 3.45 3.34 2.84 2.59 2.89 3.11 2.77 2.88 3.13 3.09 3.07 3.13 3.05 3.01 3.04 3.15 3.34 3.36 3.10 4.64 4.16 4.29 3.14 3.96 3.78 3.48 3.07 3.36 3.53 3.21 3.29 3.54 3.58 3.55 3.38 3.15 3.45 3.58 3.63 3.88 3.64 3.69 5.31 4.94 4.64 3.67 4.24 4.16 3.89 3.67 3.74 3.93 3.51 3.55 3.82 3.87 3.85 4.00 3.96 3.87 3.88 3.98 4.14 4.22 4.02 0.50 .72 .75 .75 .75 .75 .76 1.01 1.60 2.41 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.75 2.75 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.26 3.51 4.10 4.91 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.75 4.75 4.75 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.50 0.16 .18 .10 .14 .11 .09 .13 .39 1.00 1.83 1.30 1.41 1.42 1.51 1.69 1.70 1.82 1.91 1.91 1.95 2.19 2.20 2.27 5.14 4.80 4.56 3.69 4.00 4.22 4.01 3.76 3.97 p 4.52 3.90 3.94 4.15 4.33 4.52 4.55 4.58 4.62 4.57 4.64 4.67 4.77 4.84 2.42 2.47 2.41 2.41 2.39 2.55 2.44 2.53 2.54 2.56 2.76 2.65 2.72 2.74 2.75 3.04 2.97 3.02 3.07 3.06 3.65 3.60 3.62 3.61 3.66 4.00 3.96 3.97 3.99 3.88 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 ������������������������� ������������������������� ������������������������� ������������������������� ������������������������� 1 High bill rate at auction, issue date within period, bank-discount basis. Data are stop yields from uniform-price auctions. 2 Yields on actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Average effective rate for year; rate in effect at end of month or week. 5 Beginning March 1, 2016, the daily effective federal funds rate is a volume-weighted median of transaction-level data collected from depository institutions in the Report of Selected Money Market Rates (FR 2420). Prior to that date, the daily effective rate was a volume-weighted mean of rates on brokered trades. 6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Moody’s Investors Service, Bloomberg, and Standard & Poor’s. 30 Common Stock Prices and Yields Stock prices fell in December. INDEX, DEC. 31, 2002=5,000 (RATIO SCALE) 15,000 14,000 INDEX, DEC. 31, 2002=5,000 (RATIO SCALE) 15,000 14,000 13,000 13,000 12,000 12,000 COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX (NYSE) 11,000 11,000 10,000 10,000 9,000 9,000 8,000 8,000 7,000 7,000 6,000 6,000 5,000 2010 2011 2013 2012 2014 5,000 2015 2016 2017 PERCENT 20 2018 PERCENT 20 15 15 EARNINGS/PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS (S&P) 10 10 5 5 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2015 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, STANDARD AND POOR'S, AND BLOOMBERG 2017 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Common stock yields (percent) 6 Common stock prices 1 Chart 31 - Dec 2018 New York Stock Exchange indexes (December 31, 2002=5,000) 2 Period Composite 2009 ��������������������� 2010 ��������������������� 2011 ��������������������� 2012 ��������������������� 2013 ��������������������� 2014 ��������������������� 2015 ��������������������� 2016 ��������������������� 2017 ��������������������� 2018 ��������������������� 2017: Dec ������������ 2018: Jan ������������ Feb ������������ Mar ����������� Apr ������������ May ����������� June ���������� July ����������� Aug ����������� Sept ���������� Oct ������������ Nov ����������� Dec ������������ Week ended: 2018: Dec 29 ������� 2019: Jan 5 ��������� 12 �������� 19 �������� 26 �������� Financial Energy Health Care Dow Jones industrial average 3 Standard & Poor’s composite index (1941–43=10) 4 Nasdaq composite index (Feb. 5, 1971=100) 5 Dividend/price ratio Earnings/price ratio 6,091.02 7,230.42 7,871.41 8,011.65 9,426.77 10,653.17 10,676.70 10,380.08 11,843.74 12,647.54 12,706.33 13,286.10 12,752.00 12,615.26 12,535.19 12,631.36 12,663.17 12,775.18 12,949.50 13,056.05 12,537.02 12,345.42 11,624.26 3,987.04 4,744.05 4,641.01 4,616.63 5,805.54 6,448.33 6,559.24 6,124.93 7,509.81 7,963.02 8,192.39 8,526.59 8,271.86 8,190.26 8,011.33 8,043.57 7,930.41 7,972.03 8,095.34 8,083.31 7,675.56 7,647.72 7,108.30 10,020.30 10,943.85 12,880.35 12,512.31 13,490.83 14,598.07 11,332.43 10,204.95 10,699.23 11,440.86 11,146.16 12,048.73 10,915.48 10,756.41 11,490.42 12,182.57 11,978.03 12,143.16 11,861.87 11,865.97 11,623.55 10,686.85 9,737.22 5,456.63 6,230.62 6,847.80 7,503.05 9,250.02 11,195.85 12,718.18 12,182.85 13,366.56 15,054.70 14,238.12 14,946.67 14,425.24 14,311.49 14,188.05 14,312.39 14,587.88 14,984.25 15,673.16 16,043.91 15,829.10 15,965.62 15,388.60 8,876.15 10,662.80 11,966.36 12,967.08 14,999.67 16,773.99 17,590.61 17,908.08 21,741.91 25,045.75 24,545.38 25,804.02 24,981.55 24,582.17 24,304.21 24,572.53 24,790.11 24,978.23 25,629.99 26,232.67 25,609.34 25,258.68 23,805.55 946.73 1,139.31 1,268.89 1,379.56 1,642.51 1,930.67 2,061.20 2,092.39 2,448.22 2,744.68 2,664.34 2,789.80 2,705.16 2,702.77 2,653.63 2,701.49 2,754.35 2,793.64 2,857.82 2,901.50 2,785.46 2,723.23 2,567.31 1,841.03 2,347.70 2,680.42 2,965.77 3,537.69 4,374.31 4,943.49 4,982.49 6,231.28 7,419.27 6,889.74 7,279.50 7,161.77 7,311.51 7,084.14 7,339.33 7,645.14 7,756.86 7,892.23 7,983.31 7,527.08 7,236.08 6,814.29 2.40 1.98 2.05 2.24 2.14 2.04 2.10 2.19 �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� 1.86 6.04 6.77 6.20 5.57 5.25 4.59 4.17 4.22 ���������������������������� 4.11 ���������������������������� ���������������������������� 4.37 ���������������������������� ���������������������������� 4.51 ���������������������������� ���������������������������� 4.48 ���������������������������� ���������������������������� ���������������������������� 11,137.55 11,370.43 11,757.59 11,944.34 12,044.25 6,831.43 6,989.05 7,202.29 7,407.00 7,511.60 9,191.04 9,540.99 10,055.95 10,157.69 10,092.69 14,742.83 14,909.60 15,123.34 15,303.31 15,384.42 22,717.97 23,198.27 23,839.16 24,251.81 24,567.64 2,448.34 2,499.18 2,580.39 2,623.14 2,644.67 6,477.82 6,625.89 6,927.02 7,041.23 7,071.11 �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� �������������������������� ���������������������������� ���������������������������� ���������������������������� ���������������������������� ���������������������������� 1 Annual data are averages of monthly figures. Monthly and weekly data are averages of daily closing prices. 2 Includes all the stocks (in 2018, over 2,700) listed on the NYSE. 3 Includes 30 stocks. 4 Includes 500 stocks. 5 Includes over 3,000 stocks in 2018. 6 Standard & Poor’s series. Dividend/price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings/price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones & Company, Inc., Standard & Poor’s, Nasdaq Stock Market, and Bloomberg. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE. Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt In the first two months of fiscal year 2019, the deficit was $305.4 billion, compared with a deficit of $201.8 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4,800 RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS1 4,600 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4,800 4,600 4,400 4,400 4,200 4,200 OUTLAYS1 4,000 4,000 3,800 3,800 3,600 3,600 3,400 3,400 3,200 3,200 3,000 3,000 RECEIPTS1 2,800 2,800 2,600 2,600 2,400 2,400 2,200 2,200 2,000 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,800 1,600 400 SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (–)1 400 0 0 –400 –400 –800 –800 –1,200 –1,200 –1,600 –1,600 –2,000 –2,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 FISCAL YEARS 1 INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Total Fiscal year or period Receipts 2000 ���������������������������������������������������� 2001 ���������������������������������������������������� 2002 ���������������������������������������������������� 2003 ���������������������������������������������������� 2004 ���������������������������������������������������� 2005 ���������������������������������������������������� 2006 ���������������������������������������������������� 2007 ���������������������������������������������������� 2008 ���������������������������������������������������� 2009 ���������������������������������������������������� 2010 ���������������������������������������������������� 2011 ���������������������������������������������������� 2012 ���������������������������������������������������� 2013 ���������������������������������������������������� 2014 ���������������������������������������������������� 2015 ���������������������������������������������������� 2016 ���������������������������������������������������� 2017 ���������������������������������������������������� 2018 1 �������������������������������������������������� 2019 (estimates) ��������������������������������� Cumulative total, first 2 months: 2 Fiscal year 2018 ���������������������������������� Fiscal year 2019 ���������������������������������� Outlays Chart 32 - Oct 2018 On-budget Surplus or deficit (–) Receipts Outlays Federal debt (end of period) Off-budget Surplus or deficit (–) Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (–) Gross Federal Held by the public 2,025.2 1,991.1 1,853.1 1,782.3 1,880.1 2,153.6 2,406.9 2,568.0 2,524.0 2,105.0 2,162.7 2,303.5 2,450.0 2,775.1 3,021.5 3,249.9 3,268.0 3,316.2 3,328.7 3,424.4 1,789.0 1,862.8 2,010.9 2,159.9 2,292.8 2,472.0 2,655.1 2,728.7 2,982.5 3,517.7 3,457.1 3,603.1 3,536.9 3,454.6 3,506.1 3,688.4 3,852.6 3,981.6 4,107.7 4,509.6 236.2 128.2 –157.8 –377.6 –412.7 –318.3 –248.2 –160.7 –458.6 –1,412.7 –1,294.4 –1,299.6 –1,087.0 –679.5 –484.6 –438.5 –584.7 –665.4 –779.0 –1,085.3 1,544.6 1,483.6 1,337.8 1,258.5 1,345.4 1,576.1 1,798.5 1,932.9 1,865.9 1,451.0 1,531.0 1,737.7 1,880.5 2,101.8 2,285.9 2,479.5 2,457.8 2,465.6 2,474.0 2,513.3 1,458.2 1,516.0 1,655.2 1,796.9 1,913.3 2,069.7 2,233.0 2,275.0 2,507.8 3,000.7 2,902.4 3,104.5 3,029.4 2,820.8 2,800.0 2,945.3 3,077.9 3,180.4 3,259.2 3,599.8 86.4 –32.4 –317.4 –538.4 –568.0 –493.6 –434.5 –342.2 –641.8 –1,549.7 –1,371.4 –1,366.8 –1,148.9 –719.0 –514.1 –465.8 –620.2 –714.8 –785.2 –1,086.4 480.6 507.5 515.3 523.8 534.7 577.5 608.4 635.1 658.0 654.0 631.7 565.8 569.5 673.3 735.6 770.4 810.2 850.6 854.7 911.1 330.8 346.8 355.7 363.0 379.5 402.2 422.1 453.6 474.8 517.0 554.7 498.6 507.6 633.8 706.1 743.1 774.7 801.2 848.6 909.9 149.8 160.7 159.7 160.8 155.2 175.3 186.3 181.5 183.3 137.0 77.0 67.2 61.9 39.5 29.5 27.3 35.5 49.4 6.2 1.2 5,628.7 5,769.9 6,198.4 6,760.0 7,354.7 7,905.3 8,451.4 8,950.7 9,986.1 11,875.9 13,528.8 14,764.2 16,050.9 16,719.4 17,794.5 18,120.1 19,539.5 20,205.7 21,460.7 22,818.1 3,409.8 3,319.6 3,540.4 3,913.4 4,295.5 4,592.2 4,829.0 5,035.1 5,803.1 7,544.7 9,018.9 10,128.2 11,281.1 11,982.7 12,779.9 13,116.7 14,167.6 14,665.5 15,751.2 16,978.0 443.7 458.7 645.5 764.0 –201.8 –305.4 319.2 330.3 499.2 607.8 –180.0 –277.6 124.5 128.4 146.3 156.2 –21.8 –27.8 20,546.8 21,789.1 14,910.5 16,032.2 1 Data for fiscal year 2018 are from Final Monthly Treasury Statement issued October 15, 2018 . 2 Data from current issue Monthly Treasury Statement. Note: Data for fiscal year 2019 are from Mid-Session Review, Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 2019, issued July 13, 2018. Other data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2019, issued February 12, 2018. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 32 Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function In the first two months of fiscal year 2019, receipts were $15.0 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $118.5 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2,000 1 RECEIPTS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2,000 INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 800 OTHER RECEIPTS 400 800 CORPORATION INCOME TAXES SOCIAL INSURANCE AND RETIREMENT RECEIPTS 400 0 0 4,000 3,800 4,000 3,800 OUTLAYS1 3,600 3,600 3,400 3,400 NONDEFENSE 3,200 3,200 3,000 3,000 2,800 2,800 2,600 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 2,000 1,800 1,600 800 800 600 600 NATIONAL DEFENSE 400 400 200 200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 FISCAL YEARS 1 INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Chart 33 - Oct 2018 On-budget and off-budget receipts Fiscal year or period 2000 ���������������������������������������������������� 2001 ���������������������������������������������������� 2002 ���������������������������������������������������� 2003 ���������������������������������������������������� 2004 ���������������������������������������������������� 2005 ���������������������������������������������������� 2006 ���������������������������������������������������� 2007 ���������������������������������������������������� 2008 ���������������������������������������������������� 2009 ���������������������������������������������������� 2010 ���������������������������������������������������� 2011 ���������������������������������������������������� 2012 ���������������������������������������������������� 2013 ���������������������������������������������������� 2014 ���������������������������������������������������� 2015 ���������������������������������������������������� 2016 ���������������������������������������������������� 2017 ���������������������������������������������������� 2018 1 �������������������������������������������������� 2019 (estimates) ��������������������������������� Cumulative total, first 2 months: 2 Fiscal year 2018 ���������������������������������� Fiscal year 2019 ���������������������������������� On-budget and off-budget outlays National defense Indi- Corporavidual tion income income taxes taxes Social insurance and retirement receipts 2,025.2 1,991.1 1,853.1 1,782.3 1,880.1 2,153.6 2,406.9 2,568.0 2,524.0 2,105.0 2,162.7 2,303.5 2,450.0 2,775.1 3,021.5 3,249.9 3,268.0 3,316.2 3,328.7 3,424.4 1,004.5 994.3 858.3 793.7 809.0 927.2 1,043.9 1,163.5 1,145.7 915.3 898.5 1,091.5 1,132.2 1,316.4 1,394.6 1,540.8 1,546.1 1,587.1 1,683.5 1,705.2 207.3 151.1 148.0 131.8 189.4 278.3 353.9 370.2 304.3 138.2 191.4 181.1 242.3 273.5 320.7 343.8 299.6 297.0 204.7 225.5 652.9 694.0 700.8 713.0 733.4 794.1 837.8 869.6 900.2 890.9 864.8 818.8 845.3 947.8 1,023.5 1,065.3 1,115.1 1,161.9 1,170.7 1,243.1 160.6 151.7 146.0 143.9 148.4 154.0 171.2 164.7 173.7 160.5 207.9 212.1 230.2 237.4 282.7 300.0 307.3 270.1 269.8 250.6 1,789.0 1,862.8 2,010.9 2,159.9 2,292.8 2,472.0 2,655.1 2,728.7 2,982.5 3,517.7 3,457.1 3,603.1 3,536.9 3,454.6 3,506.1 3,688.4 3,852.6 3,981.6 4,107.7 4,509.6 294.4 304.7 348.5 404.7 455.8 495.3 521.8 551.3 616.1 661.0 693.5 705.6 677.9 633.4 603.5 589.7 593.4 598.7 664.7 689.7 281.0 290.2 331.8 387.1 436.4 474.1 499.3 528.5 594.6 636.7 666.7 678.1 650.9 607.8 577.9 562.5 565.4 568.9 600.7 657.6 17.2 16.5 22.3 21.2 26.9 34.6 29.5 28.5 28.9 37.5 45.2 45.7 47.2 46.2 46.7 48.6 45.3 46.3 49.0 54.5 154.5 172.2 196.5 219.5 240.1 250.5 252.7 266.4 280.6 334.3 369.1 372.5 346.7 358.3 409.4 482.2 511.3 533.1 518.5 615.2 197.1 217.4 230.9 249.4 269.4 298.6 329.9 375.4 390.8 430.1 451.6 485.7 471.8 497.8 511.7 546.2 594.5 597.3 588.7 636.0 253.7 269.8 312.7 334.6 333.1 345.8 352.5 366.0 431.3 533.2 622.2 597.3 541.3 536.5 513.6 508.8 514.1 503.5 495.8 503.7 409.4 433.0 456.0 474.7 495.5 523.3 548.5 586.2 617.0 683.0 706.7 730.8 773.3 813.6 850.5 887.8 916.1 944.9 987.8 1,047.3 222.9 206.2 170.9 153.1 160.2 184.0 226.6 237.1 252.8 186.9 196.2 230.0 220.4 220.9 229.0 223.2 240.0 262.6 324.7 392.5 239.7 243.1 273.1 302.6 311.8 339.8 393.5 317.9 365.2 651.6 372.6 435.5 458.3 347.9 341.7 401.9 437.9 495.2 478.6 570.7 443.7 458.7 226.5 222.2 1.4 6.4 174.2 179.5 41.5 50.6 645.5 764.0 112.4 131.2 101.9 120.5 10.0 10.5 83.0 86.4 80.8 129.4 59.6 77.3 159.3 167.5 60.0 65.4 80.3 96.4 Total Other Total Total Depart- Internament tional of affairs Defense, military Health Medicare Income Social Net security security interest Other 1 Data for fiscal year 2018 are from Final Monthly Treasury Statement issued October 15, 2018. 2 Data from current issue Monthly Treasury Statement. Data for Department of Defense, military, include a small amount that is classified and listed under international affairs, and not included in national defense. Note: Data for fiscal year 2019 are from Mid-Session Review, Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 2019, issued July 13, 2018. Other data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2019, issued February 12, 2018. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis In the third quarter of 2018, according to revised estimates, Federal current receipts rose $87.0 billion (annual rate), while Federal current expenditures data rose $58.2 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4,800 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4,800 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 4,400 4,400 4,000 4,000 3,600 3,600 CURRENT EXPENDITURES 3,200 3,200 2,800 2,800 CURRENT RECEIPTS 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 800 800 400 400 0 0 NET FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SAVING –400 –400 –800 –800 –1,200 –1,200 –1,600 –1,600 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Chart 34 - Dec 2018 Federal Government current receipts Federal Government current expenditures Current tax receipts Period Calendar year: 2008 ������������� 2009 ������������� 2010 ������������� 2011 ������������� 2012 ������������� 2013 ������������� 2014 ������������� 2015 ������������� 2016 ������������� 2017 ������������� 2016: I ��������������� II �������������� III ������������� IV ������������� 2017: I ��������������� II �������������� III ������������� IV ������������� 2018: I ��������������� II �������������� III r ����������� Total 2,580.7 2,239.5 2,444.0 2,572.8 2,700.3 3,139.0 3,292.2 3,446.3 3,475.5 3,558.8 3,447.2 3,448.4 3,491.8 3,514.4 3,572.4 3,538.8 3,590.3 3,533.6 3,428.3 3,456.2 3,543.2 Total 1 1,489.5 1,123.7 1,273.6 1,478.4 1,573.0 1,744.9 1,900.1 2,021.2 2,034.5 2,054.9 2,002.8 2,011.1 2,058.5 2,065.5 2,031.1 2,050.9 2,079.7 2,058.0 1,908.8 1,936.6 1,971.4 Contributions for Income Taxes govern- receipts Taxes Personal on ment on on current production corporate social assets taxes and insurincome imports ance 1,176.3 866.2 943.2 1,130.3 1,165.8 1,302.3 1,403.1 1,528.3 1,545.7 1,613.4 1,522.0 1,532.4 1,551.6 1,576.7 1,588.1 1,606.3 1,625.9 1,633.3 1,583.9 1,599.2 1,622.8 94.0 91.4 96.8 108.6 115.2 125.5 136.3 140.4 137.7 131.5 138.5 135.7 137.8 138.6 128.8 131.0 132.2 133.9 149.5 152.0 158.9 202.0 153.0 219.4 224.0 274.7 298.4 339.6 329.6 327.1 284.6 317.7 319.5 345.5 325.7 289.7 288.5 296.0 264.4 149.0 158.1 162.7 974.5 950.7 970.9 903.2 938.0 1,091.8 1,140.3 1,191.4 1,225.0 1,283.2 1,211.4 1,217.5 1,228.5 1,242.5 1,265.4 1,275.4 1,290.5 1,301.5 1,327.5 1,336.2 1,349.0 1 Includes taxes from the rest of the world, not shown separately. 2 Includes Federal grants-in-aid to State and local governments, not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 34 65.9 97.0 133.8 130.4 141.1 243.1 171.7 159.6 138.0 135.4 151.2 136.4 137.4 126.9 161.7 141.7 129.1 109.1 122.4 112.8 126.6 Current transfer receipts 49.7 67.2 68.1 67.1 56.1 69.3 87.3 77.7 79.8 87.3 83.3 85.8 69.1 80.7 114.9 71.6 93.2 69.6 77.1 80.0 105.2 Current surplus of government enterprises 1.1 .9 –2.4 –6.3 –7.8 –10.1 –7.2 –3.6 –1.7 –2.0 –1.5 –2.4 –1.7 –1.2 –.7 –.8 –2.1 –4.5 –7.5 –9.3 –9.1 Total 3,211.8 3,488.4 3,769.1 3,814.7 3,779.0 3,776.9 3,894.0 4,015.2 4,140.6 4,254.2 4,085.2 4,117.3 4,166.7 4,192.9 4,228.3 4,200.3 4,250.9 4,337.2 4,398.2 4,449.9 4,508.1 ConCurrent sumption transfer Interest Subsidies expendipaypayments tures ments 2 878.9 935.6 1,000.7 1,003.3 999.3 956.9 950.3 955.8 967.6 986.8 958.8 961.8 972.0 977.7 980.5 984.1 984.7 997.9 1,012.7 1,027.9 1,041.3 1,894.9 2,141.3 2,332.7 2,326.6 2,299.5 2,344.4 2,446.9 2,573.3 2,656.7 2,725.2 2,628.3 2,644.2 2,671.1 2,683.3 2,707.3 2,702.4 2,736.7 2,754.6 2,800.1 2,828.8 2,853.1 388.4 354.5 381.5 425.4 422.6 416.3 439.1 429.3 455.0 481.4 437.8 449.4 461.1 471.7 481.5 456.0 467.0 521.1 525.5 534.5 554.4 49.6 56.9 54.2 59.5 57.6 59.2 57.6 56.7 61.3 60.7 60.3 61.9 62.6 60.3 59.0 57.8 62.5 63.6 60.0 58.7 59.4 Net Federal Government saving –631.1 –1,248.9 –1,325.1 –1,242.0 –1,078.6 –637.9 –601.8 –568.9 –665.1 –695.4 –638.0 –668.8 –674.9 –678.6 –655.9 –661.5 –660.5 –803.6 –969.9 –993.7 –964.9 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries Industrial production (2012=100; seasonally adjusted) Period 2009 ��������������� 2010 ��������������� 2011 ��������������� 2012 ��������������� 2013 ��������������� 2014 ��������������� 2015 ��������������� 2016 ��������������� 2017 r ������������� 2018 p ������������� 2017: Oct r ����� Nov r ���� Dec r ���� 2018: Jan r ���� Feb r ���� Mar r ��� Apr r ���� May r ��� June r �� July r ��� Aug r ���� Sept r ��� Oct p ���� Nov p ��� Dec p ��� United States Canada Japan France Germany Consumer prices (1982–84=100; NSA) United Kingdom Italy 89.2 90.2 88.7 95.4 84.4 98.4 100.2 94.1 95.6 102.5 99.5 93.5 105.2 103.4 97.1 100.1 99.8 102.5 100.3 106.1 102.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 102.0 101.7 99.8 99.2 100.1 96.9 99.3 105.2 106.7 101.8 98.1 101.5 96.3 100.8 104.1 106.3 100.6 99.6 102.3 97.3 102.0 102.1 106.2 100.8 99.9 103.6 99.3 103.0 103.7 112.0 103.7 102.3 107.0 103.0 104.9 107.9 ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� 104.8 111.6 104.0 104.1 106.5 103.2 106.2 105.3 113.3 104.9 104.4 110.5 104.9 106.3 105.8 114.5 106.5 104.5 110.1 106.5 105.3 105.4 113.0 101.4 102.3 109.5 104.5 106.1 105.9 114.7 104.2 103.5 108.0 103.8 106.2 106.4 115.7 106.4 103.0 109.6 105.0 106.0 107.7 115.1 106.1 102.6 108.2 103.5 105.3 106.8 115.8 105.5 102.4 110.2 104.2 104.9 107.4 116.1 104.1 103.0 109.6 104.5 105.9 107.9 116.8 103.7 103.9 107.6 102.7 106.2 108.8 117.2 104.0 104.0 108.2 104.4 106.3 108.9 115.6 103.6 102.2 107.7 104.3 105.6 109.1 116.7 106.6 103.5 107.0 104.2 105.1 109.6 ��������������� 105.5 102.2 104.9 102.6 104.7 109.9 ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� United States 1 Canada 214.537 218.056 224.939 229.594 232.957 236.736 237.017 240.007 245.120 251.107 246.663 246.669 246.524 247.867 248.991 249.554 250.546 251.588 251.989 252.006 252.146 252.439 252.885 252.038 251.233 197.9 201.4 207.2 210.4 212.4 216.4 218.8 222.0 225.5 230.6 226.3 227.0 226.2 227.7 229.1 229.8 230.5 230.7 231.0 232.2 232.0 231.2 231.9 230.8 230.7 Japan France 118.7 117.8 117.5 117.5 117.9 121.1 122.1 121.9 122.5 123.7 122.8 123.2 123.6 123.7 123.7 123.3 123.2 123.3 123.2 123.3 124.0 124.2 124.5 124.3 123.9 Germany 184.1 186.9 190.8 194.6 196.3 197.2 197.3 197.7 199.7 203.4 200.1 200.3 201.0 200.8 200.7 202.8 203.1 204.0 204.0 203.8 204.8 204.3 204.6 204.1 204.2 United Kingdom Italy 164.5 166.3 169.7 173.1 175.7 177.3 177.7 178.6 181.7 185.2 182.3 182.8 183.9 182.6 183.4 184.1 184.1 184.9 185.1 185.6 185.7 186.4 186.7 186.9 187.1 282.2 286.5 294.5 303.5 307.1 307.9 308.0 307.7 311.5 315.0 311.2 310.6 311.8 312.7 312.7 313.7 314.0 314.9 315.5 316.4 317.7 316.1 316.1 315.5 315.2 251.1 262.7 276.3 285.2 293.9 300.8 303.8 309.1 320.1 330.8 323.4 324.0 326.7 324.3 326.7 327.0 328.6 329.8 330.7 331.0 333.9 333.8 334.3 334.4 335.6 1 Data relate to all urban consumers. Note: See Note, p. 17, for information on U.S. industrial production series. Sources: As reported by each country, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services [Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Goods: Exports (f.a.s. value) Census basis (by end-use category) Period 2008 ��������������� 2009 ��������������� 2010 ��������������� 2011 ��������������� 2012 ��������������� 2013 ��������������� 2014 ��������������� 2015 ��������������� 2016 ��������������� 2017 ��������������� 2017: Oct ������ Nov ����� Dec ������ 2018: Jan ������ Feb ������ Mar ����� Apr ������ May ����� June ���� July ����� Aug ����� Sept ���� Oct p ���� BOP basis 1,308.8 1,070.3 1,290.3 1,498.9 1,562.6 1,593.7 1,635.6 1,511.4 1,457.0 1,553.4 130.9 134.3 136.8 133.8 136.7 141.0 141.3 145.0 143.1 140.8 139.1 141.9 141.5 IndusFoods, trial Total, feeds, supCensus and plies basis 1 bever- and ages materials 1,287.4 1,056.0 1,278.5 1,482.5 1,545.8 1,578.5 1,621.9 1,503.3 1,451.0 1,546.3 130.3 133.5 136.1 133.0 136.0 140.3 140.6 144.2 142.5 140.2 138.5 141.3 140.9 108.3 93.9 107.7 126.2 133.0 136.2 143.7 127.7 130.5 132.7 10.6 10.7 10.9 10.7 10.9 11.8 12.4 14.1 14.1 13.2 12.0 11.0 10.3 388.0 296.5 391.7 501.1 501.2 508.2 505.8 427.0 397.0 464.7 41.5 41.2 42.8 40.9 43.0 44.3 45.7 44.4 46.3 46.5 44.1 46.9 47.2 121.5 81.7 112.0 133.0 146.2 152.7 159.8 151.9 150.3 157.6 12.7 13.5 13.5 13.6 14.5 14.1 13.9 13.6 12.9 13.1 12.8 13.0 12.7 Balance of trade (exports minus imports) Census basis (by end-use category) Auto- Consumer Capital motive vegoods goods hicles, except parts (nonfood) autoexcept motive and enautogines motive 457.7 391.2 447.5 494.0 527.2 534.4 551.5 539.5 519.6 533.3 44.0 46.2 47.0 44.9 45.7 47.5 46.1 48.2 47.3 46.3 46.4 47.5 47.0 Services (BOP basis) Goods: Imports (customs value) 161.3 149.5 165.2 175.3 181.7 188.8 199.0 197.7 193.7 197.7 16.4 16.8 16.8 17.9 16.7 17.1 17.2 17.8 16.4 16.0 17.6 17.8 17.9 BOP basis 2,141.3 1,580.0 1,939.0 2,239.9 2,303.7 2,294.2 2,385.5 2,273.2 2,208.0 2,360.9 199.4 204.8 210.1 208.3 213.5 210.4 209.7 210.8 212.0 214.0 215.7 219.1 219.6 IndusFoods, trial Total, feeds, supCensus and plies basis 1 bever- and ages materials 2,103.6 1,559.6 1,913.9 2,208.0 2,276.3 2,268.0 2,356.4 2,248.8 2,187.6 2,342.0 198.0 203.3 208.5 206.6 211.9 208.9 208.0 208.9 210.4 212.3 213.9 217.6 217.8 89.0 81.6 91.7 107.5 110.3 115.1 125.9 127.8 130.0 137.8 11.7 11.7 11.9 11.8 12.6 12.3 12.3 12.4 12.2 12.4 12.3 12.1 12.3 779.5 462.4 603.1 755.8 730.6 681.5 667.0 486.0 443.3 507.3 42.8 44.9 45.5 46.9 47.1 46.7 47.9 47.9 48.8 49.3 49.7 49.4 49.2 BOP basis Auto- Consumer Capital motive vegoods Exports goods hicles, except parts (nonfood) autoexcept motive and enautogines motive 453.7 370.5 449.4 510.8 548.7 555.7 594.1 602.5 589.9 640.6 55.1 56.2 57.1 55.7 57.6 56.5 56.9 59.0 57.5 58.2 57.7 60.1 56.9 231.2 157.7 225.1 254.6 297.8 308.8 328.6 349.2 350.1 359.0 29.5 30.2 30.7 30.7 31.1 30.9 30.0 29.7 30.2 30.7 31.7 31.1 31.8 481.6 427.3 483.2 514.1 516.9 531.7 557.1 594.2 583.4 601.9 50.2 52.0 55.0 53.2 55.7 54.7 51.9 51.4 53.4 52.6 53.5 55.5 57.4 532.8 512.7 562.8 627.1 655.7 700.5 741.1 755.3 758.9 797.7 67.7 68.0 68.2 68.2 68.7 69.0 68.6 68.6 68.7 69.0 69.2 69.5 69.6 Imports Goods, Census basis Goods Services Goods and services 409.1 386.8 409.3 435.8 452.0 461.1 480.8 492.0 509.8 542.5 46.2 46.4 46.8 46.0 46.9 46.3 45.9 45.6 45.9 46.2 46.3 46.8 47.0 –816.2 –503.6 –635.4 –725.4 –730.4 –689.5 –734.5 –745.5 –736.6 –795.7 –67.6 –69.8 –72.4 –73.6 –76.0 –68.5 –67.4 –64.7 –67.9 –72.0 –75.4 –76.3 –77.0 123.8 125.9 153.4 191.3 203.7 239.4 260.3 263.3 249.1 255.2 21.5 21.6 21.4 22.2 21.8 22.8 22.7 23.0 22.7 22.7 22.9 22.7 22.6 –708.7 –383.8 –495.2 –549.7 –537.4 –461.1 –489.6 –498.5 –502.0 –552.3 –47.0 –49.0 –51.9 –52.3 –55.0 –46.7 –45.7 –42.8 –46.2 –50.4 –53.7 –54.6 –55.5 –832.5 –509.7 –648.7 –741.0 –741.1 –700.5 –749.9 –761.9 –751.1 –807.5 –68.5 –70.6 –73.3 –74.6 –76.8 –69.4 –68.4 –65.7 –68.9 –73.2 –76.6 –77.3 –78.1 1 Total includes ‘‘other’’ exports or imports, not shown separately. Note: BOP refers to balance of payments on international transactions basis. BOP data shown here are consistent with figures shown on pp. 36 and 37. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis). 35 U.S. International Transactions In the third quarter of 2018, the current account deficit widened to $124.8 billion from $101.2 billion in the second quarter. The goods and services deficit widened to $158.7 billion from $134.6 billion in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 80 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 80 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 60 60 40 40 BALANCE ON PRIMARY INCOME 20 20 0 0 –20 –20 –40 –40 BALANCE ON SECONDARY INCOME –60 –60 BALANCE ON CURRENT ACCOUNT –80 –80 –100 –100 –120 –120 –140 –140 BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES –160 –160 –180 –180 –200 –200 –220 –220 –240 –240 2010 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 2017 2018 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted] Chart 36 - Dec 2018 Current Account 1 Goods 2 Period 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2016: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2017: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2018: I ���������������� II r ������������� III p ������������ Services Exports Imports Balance on goods 1,308,795 1,070,331 1,290,279 1,498,887 1,562,630 1,593,708 1,635,563 1,511,381 1,456,957 1,553,383 353,330 361,159 371,283 371,186 381,138 382,492 387,814 401,939 411,442 429,431 421,762 2,141,287 1,580,025 1,938,950 2,239,886 2,303,749 2,294,247 2,385,480 2,273,249 2,208,008 2,360,878 539,770 546,454 556,600 565,185 579,484 582,440 584,637 614,317 632,244 632,489 648,775 –832,492 –509,694 –648,671 –740,999 –741,119 –700,539 –749,917 –761,868 –751,051 –807,495 –186,440 –185,295 –185,316 –194,000 –198,346 –199,948 –196,823 –212,378 –220,802 –203,058 –227,012 Exports 532,817 512,722 562,759 627,061 655,724 700,491 741,094 755,310 758,888 797,690 186,905 189,118 191,760 191,104 195,168 197,252 201,293 203,977 205,994 205,817 207,635 Imports 409,052 386,801 409,313 435,761 452,013 461,087 480,761 491,966 509,838 542,471 125,727 125,922 128,214 129,975 131,781 134,004 137,261 139,426 139,182 137,365 139,279 Balance on services 123,765 125,920 153,446 191,300 203,711 239,404 260,333 263,343 249,050 255,219 61,179 63,196 63,546 61,129 63,387 63,248 64,032 64,551 66,812 68,452 68,356 Balance on goods and services –708,726 –383,774 –495,225 –549,699 –537,408 –461,135 –489,584 –498,525 –502,001 –552,277 –125,261 –122,099 –121,770 –132,871 –134,959 –136,700 –132,791 –147,826 –153,989 –134,606 –158,656 Primary income receipts and payments Receipts 815,567 613,249 680,169 755,937 767,972 792,819 824,543 810,073 830,174 928,118 199,946 207,929 206,389 215,911 217,567 223,979 237,632 248,940 256,029 266,274 264,523 Payments 685,918 498,089 511,948 544,853 560,497 586,842 606,152 606,464 637,151 706,386 154,498 160,387 162,480 159,787 164,962 175,444 179,410 186,569 194,854 203,926 205,098 Balance on primary income 129,649 115,160 168,221 211,084 207,475 205,977 218,391 203,608 193,023 221,731 45,447 47,543 43,909 56,124 52,604 48,535 58,222 62,371 61,175 62,348 59,425 Balance on secondary Income 3 –102,312 –103,907 –104,261 –107,047 –96,900 –93,643 –94,006 –112,848 –123,895 –118,597 –32,087 –28,501 –31,465 –31,842 –25,355 –33,672 –28,878 –30,692 –28,896 –28,966 –25,586 Balance on current account –681,389 –372,521 –431,265 –445,662 –426,832 –348,801 –365,199 –407,764 –432,873 –449,142 –111,901 –103,057 –109,327 –108,589 –107,709 –121,837 –103,447 –116,148 –121,710 –101,224 –124,817 Current account balance as a percentage of GDP –4.6 –2.6 –2.9 –2.9 –2.6 –2.1 –2.1 –2.2 –2.3 –2.3 –2.4 –2.2 –2.3 –2.3 –2.2 –2.5 –2.1 –2.3 –2.4 –2.0 –2.4 1 Current and capital account statistics in the international transactions accounts differ slightly from statistics in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) because of adjustments made to convert the international statistics to national accounting concepts. A reconciliation can be found in NIPA table 4.3B. 2 Adjusted from Census data to align with concepts and definitions used to prepare the international and national economic accounts. The adjustments are necessary to supplement coverage of Census data, to eliminate duplication of transactions recorded elsewhere in the international accounts, to value transactions according to a standard definition, and for earlier years, to record transactions in the appropriate period. 3 Includes U.S. government and private transfers, such as U.S. government grants and pensions, fines and penalties, withholding taxes, personal transfers, insurance-related transfers, and other current transfers. See p. 37 for continuation of table. 36 U.S. International Transactions—Continued In the financial account, U.S. net borrowing was $31.3 billion in the third quarter of 2018, resulting from a net decrease in U.S. financial assets of $132.7 billion plus a net decrease in financial derivatives of $12.3 billion, less a net decrease in U.S. liabilities of $151.7 billion. U.S. net borrowing was down from $153.7 billion in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 800 800 700 700 600 600 500 500 CHANGE IN U.S. LIABILITIES 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 CHANGE IN U.S. ASSETS ABROAD1 –100 –100 –200 –200 –300 –300 –400 –400 –500 –500 2010 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1 INCLUDES FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES, NET, BEGINNING 2006. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted] Chart 37 - Dec 2018 Financial account Period Balance on capital account 1 Net U.S. acquisition of financial assets excluding financial derivatives [net increase in assets / financial outflow (+)] Total 2008 �������������������� 2009 �������������������� 2010 �������������������� 2011 �������������������� 2012 �������������������� 2013 �������������������� 2014 �������������������� 2015 �������������������� 2016 �������������������� 2017 �������������������� 2016: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2017: I ��������������� II ��������������� III �������������� IV �������������� 2018: I ���������������� II r ������������� III p ������������ Portfolio Direct investment investment assets assets Other investment assets 6,010 –317,607 343,584 –284,269 –381,770 –140 131,074 312,597 375,883 –609,662 –157 958,703 349,829 199,620 407,420 –1,186 492,530 436,615 85,365 –45,327 6,904 176,764 377,239 248,760 –453,695 –412 649,587 392,796 481,298 –221,408 –45 866,523 387,528 582,676 –100,099 –42 202,208 307,058 160,410 –258,968 –59 348,625 312,975 36,283 –2,723 24,746 1,182,749 379,222 586,695 218,522 –58 39,781 76,062 –64,312 29,222 0 350,387 103,425 147,012 99,761 –1 40,432 95,894 –33,346 –23,759 0 –81,975 37,593 –13,071 –107,947 –1 366,101 135,054 141,783 89,505 0 315,922 49,976 180,700 85,095 24,787 373,591 102,936 175,910 94,804 –40 127,135 91,256 88,301 –50,883 –2 251,126 –139,326 304,094 86,365 –5 –199,943 –68,060 –14,272 –120,679 562 132,689 76,846 72,598 –16,577 Reserve assets 4 4,848 52,256 1,835 15,877 4,460 –3,099 –3,583 –6,292 2,090 –1,690 –1,191 189 1,642 1,450 –241 150 –61 –1,539 –7 3,068 –177 Net U.S. incurrence of liabilities excluding financial derivatives [net increase in liabilities / financial inflow (+)] Total 462,408 325,644 1,391,042 983,522 632,034 1,052,068 1,109,443 501,121 741,529 1,537,683 152,172 368,537 243,723 –22,901 429,098 445,338 504,082 159,164 441,080 –63,262 151,723 Direct investment liabilities Portfolio investment liabilities Other investment liabilities 341,091 161,082 264,039 263,499 250,343 288,131 251,857 509,087 494,455 354,829 158,914 186,295 130,934 18,312 112,354 97,118 107,107 38,250 57,949 16,499 122,336 523,683 357,352 820,434 311,626 747,017 511,987 697,607 213,910 231,349 799,182 –52,832 4,783 217,768 61,630 160,111 263,170 294,275 81,626 301,503 20,596 12,469 –402,367 –192,789 306,569 408,397 –365,327 251,949 159,979 –221,876 15,725 383,671 46,089 177,458 –104,979 –102,843 156,633 85,050 102,701 39,288 81,628 –100,358 16,918 Financial derivatives other than reserves, net transactions 32,947 –44,816 –14,076 –35,006 7,064 2,222 –54,335 –27,035 7,827 23,074 10,782 608 3,437 –7,000 –5,609 9,306 18,600 777 29,024 –16,969 –12,255 Net lending (+) or net borrowing (–) from financial account transactions 5 –747,069 –239,386 –446,415 –525,998 –448,205 –400,259 –297,255 –325,948 –385,078 –331,860 –101,609 –17,541 –199,854 –66,073 –68,606 –120,111 –111,891 –31,252 –160,930 –153,650 –31,289 U.S. official reserve assets, Statistical net discrep(unadancy justed, end of period) 4 –71,690 133,275 –14,992 –79,150 –28,277 –51,046 67,989 81,859 47,855 92,536 10,350 85,516 –90,527 42,515 39,104 1,727 –33,231 84,936 –39,218 –52,421 92,966 77,648 130,760 132,433 147,953 150,175 144,575 130,090 117,581 117,332 123,313 119,727 120,202 122,431 117,332 118,793 122,015 123,863 123,313 126,510 125,099 123,729 4 Consists of monetary gold, special drawing rights (SDRs), the U.S. reserve position in the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and other reserve assets, including foreign currencies. 5 Net lending means that U.S. residents are net suppliers of funds to foreign residents, and net borrowing means the opposite. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 37 CONTENTS TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page Gross Domestic Product ........................................................................................................................................................ 1 Real Gross Domestic Product ................................................................................................................................................ 2 Chained Price Indexes For Gross Domestic Product ............................................................................................................ 2 Gross Domestic Product and Related Price Measures: Indexes and Percent Changes ........................................................... 3 Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Gross Value Added and Price, Costs, and Profits .......................................................... 3 National Income .................................................................................................................................................................... 4 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures ............................................................................................................................ 4 Sources of Personal Income ................................................................................................................................................... 5 Disposition of Personal Income ............................................................................................................................................. 6 Real Farm Income ................................................................................................................................................................. 7 Corporate Profits ................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Real Gross Private Domestic Investment ............................................................................................................................... 9 Real Private Fixed Investment by Type .................................................................................................................................. 10 Business Investment ............................................................................................................................................................... 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force ....................................................................................................................................................... Selected Unemployment Rates .............................................................................................................................................. Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs ................................................................... Nonagricultural Employment ................................................................................................................................................ Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries ................................ Employment Cost Index—Private Industry .......................................................................................................................... Productivity and Related Data, Business and Nonfarm Business Sectors .............................................................................. 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization .................................................................................................................... 17 Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures .......................................................................... 18 New Construction ................................................................................................................................................................. 19 New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates .............................................................................................................................. 19 Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade .................................................................................................. 20 Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders .............................................................................................................. 21 PRICES Producer Prices ...................................................................................................................................................................... Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers ............................................................................................................................. Changes in Producer Prices ................................................................................................................................................... Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers .......................................................................................................... Prices Received and Paid by Farmers ..................................................................................................................................... 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock and Debt Measures .......................................................................................................................................... Components of Money Stock ................................................................................................................................................ Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base ................................................................................................................................. Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks .................................................................................................................................. Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business .............................................................................. Consumer Credit ................................................................................................................................................................... Interest Rates and Bond Yields .............................................................................................................................................. Common Stock Prices and Yields .......................................................................................................................................... 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt ..................................................................................................................................... 32 Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function ............................................................................................................ 33 Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis ................................................................................................................... 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries ........................................................................... 35 U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services .................................................................................................................... 35 U.S. International Transactions ............................................................................................................................................. 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: p Preliminary. r Revised. c Corrected. ... Not available (also, not applicable). NSA Not seasonally adjusted. 38