Full text of Economic Indicators : December 1978
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95tb Congress, 2d Session Economic Indicators December 1978 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1978 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) RICHARD BOLLING, Missouri, Chairman LLOYD BENTSEN, Texas, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES HENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin) WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD (Pennsylvania) LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana) GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana) PARREN ]. MITCHELL (Maryland) CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio) GARRY BROWN (Michigan) MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts) JOHN H. ROUSSELOT (California) SENATE JOHN SPARKMAN (Alabama) WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) ABRAHAM RIBICOFF (Connecticut) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) GEORGE McGOVERN (South Dakota) JACOB K. JAVITS (New York) WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) JAMES A. McCLURE (Idaho) ORRIN G. HATCH (Utah) JOHN R. STARK, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS CHARLES L. SCHULTZE, Chairman LYLE E. GRAMLEY WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sx CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—1st SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION fS J. Res. SB] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk. Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23: 1949. Charts draun by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $1.30 a single copy or by subscription at $15.00 per year ($3.75 additional for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 ii TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to revised estimates for the third quarter, gross national product rose $48.6 billion or 9.6 percent, both at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) increased 2.6 percent from the second quarter level and the implicit price deflator rose at a 6.9 percent annual rate. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 2,400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 1979 1971 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS I Billions of current dollars j quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross national product Persona] Gross con- private sump- domestion tic exinvestpend- ment itures Go^yernment purchases of goods and services Federal State NaNonTotal and tional Total delocal de- l fense fense Exporlts and imf >orts of goocIs and services Net exports Exports Imports Final sales 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 796.3 490.4 868.5 535.9 935.5 579.7 982.4 618.8 1, 063. 4 668.2 1. 171. 1 733.0 1, 306. 6 809.9 1, 412. 9 889.6 1, 528. 8 979. 1 1, 700. 1 1, 090. 2 1, 887. 2 1, 206. 5 120.8 131.5 146.2 140.8 160.0 188.3 220.0 214.6 190.9 243.0 297.8 49 2.3 1.8 3.9 1.6 -3.3 7. 1 6.0 20.4 7.4 -11.1 45.6 49.9 54.7 62.5 65.6 72.7 101.6 137.9 147. 3 163.2 175.5 40.6 47.7 52.9 58.5 64.0 75.9 94.4 131.9 126.9 155.7 186.6 180. 2 198.7 207.9 218.9 233.7 253. 1 269.5 302.7 338.4 359.5 394.0 90.9 9&0 97.5 95.6 96.2 102. 1 102.2 111. 1 123.1 129.9 145. 1 71.5 76.9 76.3 73.5 70.2 73.5 73.5 77.0 83.7 86.8 94.3 19.5 21.2 21.2 22. 1 26.0 28.6 28.7 34 1 39.4 43. 1 50.8 89.3 100.7 110.4 123.2 137.5 151. 0 167.3 191.5 215.4 229.6 248.9 786.2 860.8 926.2 978.6 1, 057. 1 1, 161. 7 1, 28a 6 1, 404 0 1, 539. 6 1, 689. 9 1, 871. 6 1977:1 II— III__ IV__. 1, 806. 8 1, 167. 7 1, 867. 0 1, 188. 6 1, 916. 8 1, 214. 5 1, 958. 1 1, 255. 2 272.5 295.6 309.7 313.5 -8.5 -5.9 -7.0 -23.2 170.9 178.1 180.8 172. 1 179.4 184.0 187.8 195.2 375.0 388.8 399.5 412.5 138.3 142.9 146.8 152.2 91.9 93.7 94.4 97. 1 46.4 49.3 52.4 55. 1 236.7 245.9 252.7 260.3 1, 796. 5 1, 850. 0 1, 894 9 1, 945. 0 1978:1 1, 992. 0 1, 276. 7 II — 2, 087. 5 1, 322. 9 III— 2, 136. 1 1, 356. 9 322.7 345.4 350. 1 -24.1 -5.5 -10.7 181.7 205.4 210. 1 205.8 210.9 220. 8 416.7 424.7 439.8 151.5 147.2 154.0 97.9 98.6 99.6 53.6 48.6 54.5 265.2 277.6 285.8 1, 975. 3 2, 067. 4 2, 122. 5 1 This category corresponds closely with budget outlays for national defense, shown on p. 33. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS [Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates) Period Gross private dc>mestie Exijorts of g<>ods iiavestment Perand serviceJS sonal Gross connational sumpChange NonResi- in busition product KT^-f resiiNet Exports Imports expend- dential dential ness in- exports ventofixed itures fixed ries Govern!nent purebases of good s and ser vices Total Federal State and local Final sales 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971- — — 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1, 007. 7 1, 051. 8 1, 078. 8 1, 075. 3 1, 107. 5 1, 171. 1 1, 235. 0 1, 217. 8 1, 202. 3 1, 271. 0 1, 332. 7 603.2 633.4 655.4 668.9 691. 9 733.0 767.7 760.7 774.6 819.4 857.7 103.5 108.0 114.3 110.0 108.0 116.8 131.0 130.6 113.6 118.9 129.8 37.2 42.8 43.2 40.4 52.2 62.0 59.7 45.0 38.8 47.8 57.7 12.0 8.7 10.6 4.3 6.6 9.4 16.5 8.0 -9.8 6.7 8.9 3.5 —.4 -1.3 1.4 -.6 -3.3 7.6 15.9 22.6 15.4 9.5 54.2 58.5 62.2 67. 1 67.9 72.7 87.4 93.0 90.0 95.9 98.2 50.7 58.9 63.5 65.7 68.5 75.9 79.9 77. 1 67.5 80.5 88.7 248.3 259.2 256. 7 250.2 249.4 253. 1 252. 5 257. 7 262.6 262. 8 269.2 125.3 128.3 121.8 110.7 103.9 102. 1 96. 6 95.8 96.5 96.6 101.6 123. 1 130.9 134.9 139. 5 145.5 151. 0 155. 9 161.8 166. 1 166.2 167. 6 995.7 1, 043. 1 1, 068. 2 1, 071. 0 1, 100. 9 1, 161. 7 1, 218. 5 1, 209. 9 1, 212. 1 1, 264. 4 1, 323. 8 1977: 1— II— III— IV._. 1, 306. 7 1,325.5 1, 343. 9 1, 354. 5 846.6 849.5 858.0 876.6 126.8 129. 1 130.8 132.5 53.5 58.0 58.8 60.3 5.8 10.0 12.2 7.5 11.2 11.0 12.5 3. 1 97. 1 98.9 100.8 96.0 85.9 87.9 88.2 92.9 262. 8 267.9 271.7 274.5 98.7 101.3 102.9 103.6 164. 1 166.6 168.8 170.9 1, 300. 9 1, 315. 5 1, 331. 7 1, 347. 1 1978: !___- 1, 354. 2 II— 1, 382. 6 III— 1, 391. 4 873.5 886.3 895.1 133.8 140.5 141.7 59.5 59.9 59.7 12.3 12.7 9.0 2.9 11.3 9.2 99. 1 108.4 109.0 96.2 97. 1 99.7 272. 1 271.9 276.7 101.2 97. 1 100.4 170.8 174.8 176.3 1, 341. 8 1, 369. 9 1, 382. 4 IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1972=100] Period Gross national product PersonaI consump>tion expenditures Total 1967 1968 1969 1970_ 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 127. 15 133. 76 141. 61 88.5 92.5 96.6 100. 0 105.5 116.9 126. 4 133. 1 140.7 78.8 82.0 86. 1 90.5 95.8 100.0 1047 113. 6 123.2 131.6 141.0 79.3 82.6 86.6 91.3 96. 4 100.0 103.8 115.3 132.2 138.4 146.7 100.0 110.8 122.3 132.8 142. 5 159.4 85.3 87.9 93. 1 96.6 100.0 116.2 148.3 163.6 170. 1 178.7 138. 27 140. 86 142. 63 144. 56 137.9 139.9 141.6 143. 2 128.4 128.9 129.5 130. 9 142.4 144. 7 145.7 147.0 137.4 139.7 142.3 1444 142.5 145.0 147.9 151.2 152.3 157. 6 160. 6 166. 1 147. 10 150. 98 153. 52 146.2 149.3 151.6 133. 1 135.7 137.8 150.4 1544 156.2 147. 1 149.9 152.6 153.6 156.7 160.6 168.6 175.7 182.6 96.02 100. 00 105. 80 116.02 1978:1 II III 846 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 77.0 80.7 87.7 90.6 949 Governrnent purchases of goods and s srvices Exports Imports Federal 81.9 85.3 89.4 93.6 96.6 100.0 107.9 123.8 133.4 138.2 145.0 91.36 II III IV Nonres- ResiNonDurable durable Services idential dential goods fixed goods fixed Expor ts and imports of goods and scjrvices 87.4 90.7 93. 1 95.5 99.0 100.0 101.6 108.4 117.7 1244 129.5 79.02 82.57 86.72 1977:1 81.3 Gross private dom estic inveslbment State and local 80. 1 80.9 83.3 89. 1 93.5 100.0 118.2 171.0 188.0 193.5 210.3 72.6 76.4 80.0 86.4 92.6 100.0 105.8 115.9 127. 5 1344 142. 7 100.0 107.3 118.4 129.7 138. 1 148.5 176. 1 180.0 179.4 179.2 208.9 209.3 212.9 210.2 140. 1 141. 1 142.7 146.9 1443 147.6 149.7 152.3 183.3 189.4 192.8 213.8 217.2 221.5 149.6 151. 5 153.4 155.2 158. 8 162. 1 840 72.5 76.9 81.9 88.3 945 CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross national pproduct Constant (1972) dollars Current dol- Period Implicit price deflator Gross <domestic \>roduct Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) Chain price index Constant (1972) dollars Current dol- Implicit price deflator Chain price index Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 5.8 9. 1 7.7 5.0 8.2 10. 1 11.6 8. 1 8.2 11.2 11.0 2.7 4. 4 2.6 -.3 3.0 5.7 5.5 -1.4 -1.3 5.7 4.9 2.9 4.5 5.0 5.4 5. 1 4. 1 5.8 9.7 9.6 5.2 5.9 3.0 4.4 5.0 5.3 5.0 4. 1 6.0 9.9 9.4 5. 6 6.2 3.0 4.3 5.0 5.2 4.9 4.0 6.0 10.2 9.3 5. 6 6.3 5.7 9. 1 7.8 5.0 8. 1 10. 1 11.5 7.9 8.5 11.0 10.9 2.7 4.4 2.6 -.3 2.8 5.8 5.4 -1.3 — 1. 1 5. 6 48 3.0 4.5 5. 1 5.3 5. 1 41 5.7 9.3 9.7 5.2 5.8 3. 1 44 5.0 5.3 5.0 41 5.9 9.6 9.4 5.7 6. 1 3.0 44 5.0 5.2 49 40 5.9 9.9 9.3 5.7 6.3 1977: I II III IV 13.7 14.0 11. 1 8.9 6. 0 7.7 5. 1 5.5 6.6 7.3 4.6 6.5 7.0 7.4 47 6.8 13.3 13.9 11.2 9.5 7. 1 5.8 5.8 3.5 5.7 7.7 5. 1 5.8 6.4 7.4 45 6.7 6.8 7.5 4.6 7.0 1978: I II III 7.1 20.6 9.6 7.3 5.9 5.7 3.2 -t 8.7 2.6 7.2 11.0 6.9 7. 1 10.8 7.6 7. 0 11.0 7.6 6.7 20. 1 10. 2 ^ 8.3 3.0 7. 1 10.9 7.0 7. 1 10.9 7.5 7.0 11.0 7.6 NOTE.—Annual changes from previous year and quarterly changes from previous quarter. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross c omestic prodiict of nonfin ancial corpc3rate busi ness (billic>ns of doll ars) Current-do .lar cost a nd profit per unit of outpu t (dollars) i Total cost and profit 2 Capital consumption Comallowpenances Indirect sation Net with business of incapital taxes * employ- terest conees sumption adjustment Corpo rate profi bs with inventc3ry valuat ion and capit al consuiription atdjustmen ts Profits tax liability Profits after4 tax ComOutput penper sation hour per of all hour employ- of all ees employ(1972 ees dollars) (dollars) Current dollars 1972 dollars 452.9 498.4 541.8 560. 6 602.5 671. 0 752.0 808.8 874 1 988.5 1, 103. 2 545.8 581.6 607.3 600.6 619.3 671.0 720.4 695.0 680.0 730.0 769.3 0.830 .857 .892 .933 .973 1.000 1. 044 1. 164 1.285 1.354 1.434 0.072 .074 .079 .088 . 094 .093 .095 .116 . 142 .146 . 150 0.084 .089 .094 . 103 . 110 . 110 . 112 . 123 . 136 . 136 . 140 0.535 . 553 .589 . 628 .645 .661 .699 .796 .848 .891 .952 0.016 .017 .022 .028 .029 .028 .032 .043 . 045 .042 . 044 0. 123 . 124 . 109 .086 .095 . 107 . 105 .086 . 113 . 139 . 148 0.051 .058 .055 .045 .048 .050 . 055 . 061 .060 . 073 .077 0.072 .066 .055 .041 .046 .057 .050 .024 .053 .066 .071 6.873 7. 105 7. 139 7. 132 7.374 7.595 7. 788 7. 489 7.721 7. 962 8.057 3.676 3.929 4 198 4478 4757 5.024 5.446 5.958 6. 550 7. 093 7.667 1977: I 1, 048. 5 II- — 1, 093. 3 III.. 1, 124 6 IV__. 1, 146. 3 750.2 766.9 776.7 783.6 1.398 1.426 1.448 1.463 . 149 . 149 . 151 . 152 . 140 . 139 . 140 . 142 .932 .946 .955 .973 .043 .043 .044 .045 . 134 . 148 . 158 . 151 .075 .078 .076 .077 .059 .070 .082 .074 7.991 8.025 8. 113 8. 103 7.451 7.590 7.746 7.881 1978: 1 1, 161. 6 II.... 1, 233. 0 III*L_ 1, 260. 6 783.6 811.9 814.9 1.482 1. 519 1.547 . 155 . 153 . 158 . 145 . 145 . 145 1.008 1.017 1.038 .046 . 045 .046 .129 . 157 . 160 .071 .086 .086 .057 .071 .074 8.053 8. 139 8. 166 8. 117 8.281 8.471 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfmancial corporate msiness in 1972 dollars. 3 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. 8 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. Total * With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] National income Period Propr letors* incom e with inventor y valuation ancl capital consurnption adjust ments Compensation of employees l Farm 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 . Nonfarm Rental income of perwith capital consumption adjustment Corpor ate profit** with inventory vaiuation and capital co nsumptio ti adjustm ents Profits > with inv entory valuaibion adjustment and iwithout C2ipital consum ption adjiistment Inventory valua- Total Total Profits before tax tvirtn Capital consumption adjustment Net interest adjustment 471.9 655.8 519.8 714.4 571.4 767.9 609.2 798.4 650.3 858. 1 715. 1 951.9 799.2 1, 064. 6 875.8 1, 136. 0 931. 1 1, 215. 0 1, 359. 2 1, 036. 8 1, 515. 3 1, 153. 4 12. 1 12.0 13.9 13.9 14.3 18.0 32.0 25.4 23.5 18.4 20.2 48.9 51.4 52.3 51.2 53.4 58. 1 60.4 60. 9 63.5 70.2 79.5 19.4 18.6 18. 1 18. 6 20. 1 21.5 21. 6 21.4 22.4 22.5 22.5 79.3 85.8 81.4 67.9 77.2 92. 1 99. 1 83.6 95.9 127.0 144.2 75.6 82. 1 77.9 66.4 76.9 89.6 97.2 86.5 107.9 141. 4 159. 1 77.3 85.6 83.4 71.5 82.0 96.2 115.8 126.9 120.4 155.9 173.9 -1.7 -3.4 -5.5 -5. 1 -5.0 -6.6 -18.6 — 40.4 -12.4 -14.5 -148 3.7 3.7 3.5 1.5 .3 2.5 1.9 -2.9 — 12. 0 -144 -149 243 26.8 30.8 37.5 42.8 47.0 52.3 69.0 78.6 843 95.4 1977: I II III IV 1, 447. 5 1, 499. 3 1, 537. 6 1, 576. 9 1, 107. 9 1, 140. 5 1, 165. 8 1, 199. 7 19.4 20.0 16.5 25.1 76. 1 78.9 80.8 82.3 22. 5 22.4 22.4 22.7 129.9 143.7 154.8 148.2 144. 5 158.5 169.9 163.5 1648 175. 1 177.5 178.3 -20.3 -16.6 -7.7 -148 -146 -148 -15.0 -15.3 91.7 93.7 97.3 99.0 1978:1 II III 1, 603. 1 1, 241. 0 1, 688. 1 1, 287. 8 1, 728. 4 1, 317. 1 21.9 24.0 25.0 83. 1 86. 1 89.6 22.8 22.2 24. 3 132.6 163.4 165.2 148.7 180. 6 184.5 172. 1 205. 5 205.4 -23.5 -249 -20.9 -16. 1 -17.2 -19.3 101.7 1046 107.4 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. i Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nondura ble goods Durable goo<Is Period Total personal consumption expenditures Total durablel goods Motor vehicles and parts Furniture and household Total nondurable goods 1 Food Retail sales of new pa ssenger cars (nlillions of uiaits) Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil Services Domestics ment Imports 1967 490.4 1968 535.9 1969 579. 7 1970.... 618.8 1971 .'__ 668.2 1972 733.0 1973 809.9 1974 889.6 1975 979. 1 1976 1, 090. 2 1977 1, 206. 5 69.6 80.0 85.5 849 97. 1 111.2 123.7 122.0 132.6 156. 6 178.4 29. 7 35.8 37.7 349 43.8 50.6 55.2 48.0 53.4 69.7 81.5 29.5 32.6 35.0 36.7 39.4 448 50.7 549 58.0 63.9 71.3 212.6 230.4 247.0 2647 277.7 299.3 333.8 376.3 408.9 442.6 479.0 109. 6 118.3 126. 1 136.3 140.6 150.4 168. 1 189.8 209.6 225.8 245.2 38.2 41.8 45.1 46.6 50.5 55. 1 61.3 65.3 70. 1 75.7 81.5 17.0 18.4 20.4 22.0 23.4 24 9 27.8 36.4 39.5 42.8 46.5 208. 1 225.6 247.2 269. 1 293.4 322.4 352.3 391.3 437.5 491.0 549.2 7.6 8.6 8.5 7. 1 8.7 9.3 9.7 7.5 7. 1 8.6 9. 1 0.8 1.0 1. 1 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.5 2. 1 1977:1 II III.... IV 1, 167. 7 1, 188. 6 1, 214. 5 1, 255. 2 173.2 175.6 177.4 187.2 81.3 81.2 79.5 840 68.0 69.9 72.0 75.3 465.9 473.6 479.7 496.9 237.5 2445 246.4 252.6 78.5 79.3 81.4 86.7 46.1 46.2 46.0 47.5 528. 6 539.4 557.5 571. 1 9.4 9.2 8.9 9.0 1.9 2.3 2.0 2.0 1978:1 1, 276. 7 II 1, 322. 9 III™. 1, 356. 9 183.5 197.8 199.5 84 1 92.5 89.8 72. 1 76.5 78.9 501.4 519.3 531.7 257.7 267.8 272.0 82.9 87.5 90.5 48.3 49. 1 51.5 591.8 605. 8 625.8 8.7 10.0 9.3 2. 1 2. 1 2.0 1 Total includes other items not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $17.3 billion (annual rate) in November following revised increases of $22.5 billion in October and $13.6 billion in September. Wages and salaries rose $11.8 billion in November, compared with $16.5 billion in October. All other major types of income also rose in November. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,00) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCAL| WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMWTS 1978 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES COWNClt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Wage Rental Total and Other Proprietc)rs* income * income Transfer Divi- Personal labor 1 2 interest pay- 8 personal salary of dends income disburseincome income ments Nonfarm persons * Farm ments l Period 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 546.5 579.4 633.8 701.3 764.6 805.9 890. 1 983. 6 32.0 36.2 42. 0 48.7 55.6 65. 1 77.0 90.4 1, 577. 0 1, 014. 1 1, 592. 7 1, 022. 3 1, 609. 2 1, 027. 3 801.3 859. 1 942.5 1, 052. 4 1, 154 9 1, 255. 5 1, 380. 9 1, 529. 0 1977: Oct Nov Dec 1978: Jan 1, 615. 5 1, 625. 0 Feb Mar 1, 646. 3 1, 669. 4 Apr May 1, 682. 1 June 1, 695. 7 July._._ 1, 719. 2 Aug_ — 1, 731. 1 Sept._. 1, 744. 7 Oct *___ 1, 767. 2 Nov *_ _ 1, 784. 5 1, 038. 3 1, 047. 4 1,066.6 1, 083. 9 1, 088. 4 1, 098. 4 1, 108. 2 1, 111.3 1, 120. 1 1, 136. 7 1, 148. 4 32.0 25.4 23.5 18.4 20.2 51.2 53.4 58.1 60.4 60.9 63.5 70.2 79. 5 18.6 20. 1 21.5 21.6 21.4 22.4 22.5 22.5 27.8 31. 0 31.9 37.9 43.7 94.8 96. 1 97.3 22. 1 24.6 28.5 81.4 82.2 83.2 22.4 22.6 22. 9 98.7 100.0 101.3 102.7 104.0 105.4 106.7 107.9 109. 1 110.4 111.8 25.6 21. 5 18.6 22.0 24.8 25.3 24. 0 24. 9 26.0 27.3 28.7 82.0 83.0 84.4 85.5 86. 1 86.7 88.4 90. 1 90.2 91.5 92.0 23.0 22.8 22.6 22. 3 22. 1 22. 1 24.3 24.3 24.2 24.3 24.4 13.9 14.3 iao 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. 2 Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workmen's compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 4 With capital consumption adjustment. Less: PerNonsonal confarm tributions personal for social income 8 insurance 84 1 103.0 115.5 126.3 141.2 79.9 94 1 1041 118.9 140.8 178.2 193.9 208.8 42.2 47.7 50. 5 55.5 61.0 780. 7 838.0 917.3 1, Oil. 9 1, 119. 3 1, 220. 8 1, 349. 5 1, 494. 4 45. 1 45.5 48.3 145.3 145.5 147.3 214. 2 216.5 217. 2 62.4 62.6 62.8 1, 540. 1 1, 553. 1 1, 565. 5 46.8 47. 0 47.2 47.4 48. 0 49.0 49. 2 50. 3 50.7 51. 1 51.6 149.6 151.4 153.3 218. 1 219.0 220. 3 219.7 221. 3 220.8 229.0 230. 8 231.5 232.2 233. 1 66.5 67.0 68.0 68.9 69.0 69.6 70.3 70.4 70.8 71.5 72. 1 1, 574 7 1, 588. 3 1, 612. 5 1, 631. 9 1, 641. 8 1, 654 7 1, 679. 4 1, 690. 3 1, 702. 6 1, 723. 6 1, 739. 2 22.9 23.0 643 246 746 69.3 1548 156. 5 157.6 159.6 161. 9 163. 6 165.2 166. 6 28.0 30.8 342 s Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. 8 Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable income rose again in the third quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 1,600 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 3,000 - 3,000 2,000 2,000 1970 1971 1978 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS .Less: T «O.CT • PAT Period sonal Pertax sonal and income nontax payments Equals: Disposable personal income Less: Personal outlays l Per cjapita dispc>sable persona . income Equals: Personal saving Current dollars 745.8 SOL 3 859. 1 942.5 1, 052. 4 1, 154. 9 1, 255. 5 1, 380. 9 1, 529. 0 Current dollars 1972 dollars Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent of Population dispos(thou-2 able persands) sonal income Dollars Billlions of d ollars 1969__ __ 1970 _ „ 1971 _ 1972 1973___ . 1974__ „_ 1975__ . _ 1976_ 1977 1972 dollars Per capdta personal ccmsumption exp enditures 630.4 J 595.3 115.4 635.4 685. 9 115.3 742.8 685.5 116.3 141.2 801.3 751.9 901. 7 150.8 831.3 913.0 170.3 9846 168.8 1, 086. 7 1, 003. 0 196.5 1, 184. 4 1, 116. 3 226.0 1, 303. 0 1, 236. 1 35. 1 50.6 57.3 49.4 70.3 71.7 83.6 68.0 66.9 3, 111 3,348 3,588 3,837 4,285 4,646 5,088 5,504 6,009 3,515 3,619 3,714 3,837 4,062 3,973 4,025 4, 136 4,271 2,860 3,020 3,227 3,510 3,849 4, 197 4,584 5,066 5,564 3,234 3,265 3,342 3,510 3,648 3,589 3,627 3,808 3,955 1.5 3.0 2.6 3.3 5.9 -2. 2 1.3 2.8 3.3 5.6 7.4 7.7 6.2 7.8 7.3 7.7 5. 7 5. 1 202, 677 204, 878 207, 053 208, 846 210, 410 211, 945 213, 566 215, 191 216, 856 Seas onally ad; usted annoial rates 1, 195. 8 1, 217. 8 1, 244. 8 1? 285. 9 52.2 67.5 74.3 73.7 5,772 5,934 6,077 6,250 4, 185 4,241 4,293 4,365 5,401 5,487 5,595 5,770 3,916 3,922 3,953 4,030 1. 1 5. 5 5. 0 6.9 4. 2 5. 3 5. 6 5.4 216, 216, 217, 217, 1978:I___» 1, 628. 9 237.3 1, 391. 6 1, 309. 2 II... 1, 682. 4 249. 1 1, 433. 3 1, 357. 0 III__ 1, 731. 7 263.2 1, 468. 4 1, 392. 5 82. 4 76. 3 76.0 6,387 6,566 6,712 4,370 4,399 4,428 5,859 6,060 6, 202 4,009 4,060 4,092 .5 2.7 2. 7 5.9 5.3 5.2 217, 897 218, 290 218, 769 1977: !____ II— IIIIY._ 1, 470. 1, 508. L, 543. 1, 593. 7 6 7 0 222.7 223.3 224. 6 233.3 1, 248. 1, 285. 1, 319. 1, 359. 0 3 1 6 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). 2 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are for July 1 through 1973 and are averages of quarterly data beginning 1974. Quarterly data are average for the period. 206 603 073 541 Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Burea of the Census). FARM INCOME In the third quarter net farm income before inventory adjustment was unchanged while income after inventory adjustment rose $1 billion (annual rate). BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)' 120 120 100 100 GROSS FARM INCOME_ BEFORE INVENTORY ADJUSTMENT I 80 80 60 60 NET FARM INCOME AFTER INVENTORY ADJUSTMENT 40 40 I I _!_. v 20 20 10 10 1971 1970 1972 1974 1973 1975 1976 1977 1978 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Persona 1 income received by tota" farm po pulation Income re ceived fro m farmin g Gross i Qcome be] ore inven tory adjustrrlent Period From From From farm nonfarm 1 sources sources sources Total all 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1977: I II _ III,__ IV—. 1978: 1 _ _ _ _ II__._ III 27.5 28.8 34.6 48.9 45. 2 44.5 41.2 43.0 13.0 13.5 16.9 29.2 23.4 21.9 16.9 18.3 14.5 15.3 17.8 19.7 21.8 22.7 24.4 24.7 Caslh receipts from rnarketing 3 Livestock Crops Total and products Billioiis of dolla rs Production expenses Net incc me per farm a fter inventory adjustmeiits Before inventory adjustment After inventory adjust-2 ment 14.2 14.6 18.7 33.3 26. 1 24. 5 18.8 20.6 19.6 20. 2 16. 8 25.5 4,799 5,042 6,526 11, 813 9,349 8,845 6,848 7,592 7,240 7,460 6,210 9,420 4, 126 4,157 5,208 8,875 6,330 5,487 4,016 4,183 4,090 4, 130 3,390 5,080 22.3 24. 5 25.5 8,320 9,140 9,510 4,410 4,730 4,810 Current 1967 dollars dollars 4 Dol lars 58.6 60.6 70.1 95.5 100.0 96.9 104. 1 108. 1 108. 1 106.7 102.7 114.8 50.5 52.9 61.2 87. 1 92.4 88.2 94.5 96. 1 97.6 95.7 91.3 99.6 29. 6 30.6 35.7 45.9 41.4 43.0 46.2 47.6 46.3 46. 6 47.8 49.5 21. 0 22.3 25.5 41. 1 51. 1 45. 1 48.3 48.5 51.3 49. 1 43. 5 50. 1 44.4 47.4 52.3 65.6 72.2 75.9 83.0 88.0 87.5 87.0 86.0 91.4 14. 1 13.2 17.8 29.9 27.7 21. 1 21. 1 20. 1 20.6 19.7 16.7 23.4 115.8 122.5 122. 5 102. 2 109.0 109.5 52.7 57.5 58.5 49.5 51.5 51.0 93.5 96.0 96.0 22.3 26.5 26.5 1 Cash receipts from marketings, Government payments, and nonmoney income famished by farms. 2 Inventory of crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year. 3 Based on Census of Agriculture definition of a farm. The number of farms is held constant within a year. Net t() farm oper ators < Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index. Source: Department of Agriculture. CORPORATE PROFITS In the third quarter, according to revised data, profits before tax declined slightly while after tax-profits fell $1 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 240 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 240 200 40 1978 1979 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1977: I II III IV 1978: I II III . >ry valuiition Profit M (before tax) wit!ti invent* adjustn lent l Dome ?tie industries Isfonfinan< 3ial WholeTotal * Manu- sale Total Finan1 faecial and Total tur- retail mg trade 37.9 75.6 8.9 63.6 72.6 9.0 82.1 78.9 10.4 68.5 41.2 10. 1 74.2 11.3 62.9 36.8 10. 1 77.9 66.4 9.4 62.6 12.6 50.1 27.1 72.4 14. 1 58.2 32.4 11.7 76.9 89.6 84.7 15.4 69.3 40.6 13.3 97.2 90.4 16.2 74.1 44.1 14.7 86.5 76.9 14.4 62.5 36.6 12.9 107.9 101.8 13.0 88.9 48.3 20.7 141.4 133.2 17.5 115.6 65.6 240 159.1 149.5 20.9 128.6 74.7 24.0 144.5 1348 19.7 115. 1 66.4 20.6 158.5 148. 1 19.9 128.1 77.4 22.8 169.9 159.5 21.9 137.6 74.7 30.6 163.5 155.6 21.9 133.7 80.2 22. 1 139.2 22.7 116.6 69.8 16.7 148.7 180.6 168.9 24.3 144. 6 87.8 22.0 184.5 175.4 26.0 149.4 87. 1 25.8 * See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 8 2 Profits after tax Profits before tax Tax liability Total Dividends Undistributed profits 77.3 85.6 83.4 71.5 82.0 96.2 115.8 126.9 120.4 155.9 173.9 1648 175. 1 177.5 178.3 172.1 205.5 205.4 32.5 39.4 39.7 345 37.7 41. 5 48.7 52.4 49.8 64 3 71.8 68.3 72. 3 72.8 73.9 70.0 85.0 86.2 44 9 46.2 43.8 37.0 44 3 546 67. 1 745 70.6 91.7 102. 1 96.5 102.8 1048 1044 102.1 120.5 119. 2 20.1 21.9 22.6 22.9 23.0 246 27.8 31.0 31.9 37.9 43.7 41.5 42.7 44 1 46.3 47.0 48. 1 50. 1 247 242 21.2 14 1 21.3 30.0 39.3 43.6 38.7 53.8 58.4 55.0 60. 1 60.6 58. 1 55. 1 72.4 69.2 Includes rest of the world, not shown separately, s Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Inventory valuation adjustment -1.7 -3.4 -5.5 -5.1 — 5.0 -6.6 -18.6 -40.4 -12.4 -145 — 148 -20.3 -16.6 -7.7 -148 -23.5 -249 -20.9 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to revised estimates for the third quarter, business fixed investment rose $7.4 billion (annual rate) as nonresidential construction outlays rose $4.3 billion and producers1 durable equipment purchases increased $3.1 billion. Residential investment outlays increased $3.7 billion. Inventory investment amounted to $13.6 billion, down 56.5 billion from the second quarter level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 180 r ~~ 380 -GROSS PRIV ATE DOMESTIC: INVESTMENT- ~~ • - NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT 160 Oyifl IJAA oxn 200 f QA 100 - r* - / T'I i PRODUCERS' DURABLE EQUIPMENT - s— ' _ oOfi <*~*\ ^ / - I 1 1 1 1 1 1 ) 1 1 1 80 1 STRUCTURES BILHONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 130 RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT 120 60 110 100 90 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 80 40 -CHANGE IN BUSINESS INN^ENTORIES 70 - 20 0 60 -20 50 40 1975 1977 1976 yvj -J - /""""""""V f/^~\ "^^ - I i i i 1979 1978 — 1975 1976 \ I I 1977 I I 1978 i i 1979 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nor^resident ial fixed investmcmt Period Gross private domestic investment Struc tures Total Total Prodiicers' durjable equip ment Nonfarm Total Nonfarm Resid ential fis:ed investment "Pi-rt Total Nonfarm structures Farm ducers' struc- durable tures equipment Change in business inv entories Total Nonfarm 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 120.8 131.5 146.2 140.8 160.0 188.3 220.0 214.6 190.9 243.0 297.8 82. 1 89.3 98.9 100.5 104 1 116.8 136.0 150.6 150.2 1646 190.4 29.5 31.6 35.7 37.7 39.3 42.5 49.0 545 53.8 57.3 63.9 28.2 30.4 343 36. 1 37.8 41. 1 46.9 51.8 51.3 547 61.0 52.6 57.7 63.3 62.8 647 743 87.0 96.2 96.4 107.3 126.5 48.0 53.4 58.9 58. 1 59.9 69. 1 80. 1 88.2 87.4 97.5 116.7 28.6 345 37.9 36.6 49.6 62.0 66. 1 55. 1 51.5 68.2 91.9 27.2 33. 1 36.3 35. 1 47. 9 60.3 643 52.7 49.5 65.8 88.9 0.7 .6 .7 .6 .7 .7 .6 1.2 .9 1. 1 1.5 0.7 .8 .9 .9 1.0 1. 1 1.2 1. 2 1. 1 1.3 1.5 10. 1 7.7 9.4 3.8 6.4 9.4 17.9 8.9 -10.7 10.2 15. 6 9.4 7.6 9.2 3.7 5. 1 8. 8 147 10.8 -143 12.2 15. 0 1977:1 II III IV 272.5 295.6 309.7 313.5 180.6 187.2 193.5 200.3 59.3 63.4 65.4 67.4 56.4 60.4 62.7 645 1214 123.8 128. 1 132.8 111.0 113.8 118.6 123.4 81.6 91.4 94 3 100.2 78.6 88.4 91.2 97.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 10.3 17.0 21. 9 13. 1 11. 1 16.5 22.0 10.4 1978:1 II III 322.7 345.4 350. 1 205.6 220. 1 227.5 68.5 76.6 80.9 65.2 73.4 78.0 137. 1 143.5 146.6 127.2 132.9 135.5 100.3 105. 3 109.0 97.3 102. 1 105.7 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.7 16.7 20. 1 13. 6 16.9 22. 1 146 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Capital spending by business in 1978 is expected to be 12.7 percent above the 1977 level according to the Commera Department survey conducted in late October and November. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 180 8ILUON5 OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 180 SEASONAU.Y ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 160 160 140 140 120 120 100 80 80 60 60 "\ MANUFACTURING 40 40 I 20 1971 I I 1972 I 1973 1975 1976 I 1977 I J 1978 L 20 1979 J/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOK. SOUilCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Starts jf plant and eqtlipment proj sets3 Ejrpenditurf is for plan t and equipment N onmanuf acturing M inufactur ng Period Total i Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Trans- Public ComMining porta- utili- munition cation ties Commercial Manufactur- 28. 00 35. 21 47.57 52. 49 48.24 51. 05 66. 73 22. 22 28.60 38. 13 45. 74 34. 50 29. 66 32. 54 and ing Public utilities 81. 21 88.44 99. 74 ... 112. 40 112. 78 120. 49 . 135. 80 IBS. 09 29.99 31.35 38.01 46.01 47.95 52.48 60.16 67.65 14. 15 15.64 19. 25 22.62 21.84 23.68 27.77 31.76 15. 84 15.72 18. 76 23. 39 26. 11 28. 81 32. 39 36.90 51.22 57.09 61. 73 66.39 64.82 68.01 75.64 86. 44 2. 16 2.42 2.74 3. 18 3.79 4. 00 4. 50 4.84 4. 93 5.72 6.03 6.66 7.57 7.45 6.93 7.97 15. 30 17. 00 18. 71 20. 55 20. 14 22. 28 25.80 29. 16 10.77 11.89 12.85 13. 96 12. 74 13.30 15.45 18. 04 other 2 18.05 20. 07 21.40 22.05 20.60 20. 99 22. 97 25. 4S 1977: III._ 140. 38 IV-. . 138. 11 63.02 61.41 29.23 28.19 33.79 33.22 77.36 76.70 4.74 4.50 6.85 6.88 26. 22 26. 23 16.40 15.82 23. 14 23.27 19.81 16.54 10. 23 7. 99 1978: I II III «.„_ IV*... 14425 150. 76 165. 41 161. 24 61.57 67.20 67. 76 7S.20 28.72 31.40 32.26 34.19 32. 86 35. 80 36. 60 39. OS 82.68 83. 56 87. 66 88.04 4.45 4.81 4.99 5. S3 8.46 7.40 8.05 8. IB 27. 92 28.46 20. SIS 30. 59 17.07 18. 18 18.90 24.76 24. 71 26.09 17.41 18. 10 16. 96 7.98 7. 78 4-40 IBS. S4 73. 02 34.13 38. 89 90.31 1971.. 1972. _ 1973 1974.. _ 1975 1976 1977 1978* 1979: I 4 1 Excludes agricultural business; real estate operators; medical, legal, educational, and cultural service; and nonprofit organizations. These figures do not agree precisely with the nonresidential fixed investment data in gross national product estimates, mainly because those data include investment by farmers, professionals, nonprofit institutions, and real estate firms, and certain outlays charged to current account. 10 4.94 2 10.09 SO. 79 44- 07 44- 59 Includes trade, service, construction, finance, and insurance. ' Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during given period. * Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late October and November 1978. Plans are adjusted when necessary for systematic bias. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE Seasonally adjusted employment increased by 543,000 in November while unemployment increased by 42fOOO. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 80 10 10 - 5 0 U. 1971 1970 1972 1974 1973 1975 1977 1976 *16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER. SOURCEs DEPARTMf NT OF LABOR 1978 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over] Period 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 Noninstitutional population Total labor Civilian Unemforce Civilian employ- ploy- (includ- labor ment ment ing force Armed Forces) 148, 263 84, 409 150, 827 85, 935 153, 449 84, 783 156, 048 87, 485 158, 559 90, 546 Uiaadjusted 4,304 5,076 7,830 7,288 6,855 Nonagricultural Part-time ecoTotal for nomic 1 reasons Total 15 weeks and over participation rate Cnprvper_ X * --_. r»f»nt1 2 88, 714 91, Oil 92, 613 94, 773 97, 401 84, 409 85, 935 84, 783 87, 485 90, 546 2,311 3,452 80, 957 2,709 3,492 82, 443 3,490 3,380 81, 403 3,272 3, 297 84, 188 3,297 3,244 87, 302 Seas<Dnally adjusted 4,304 5,076 7,830 7,288 6,855 812 937 2,483 2,339 1,911 61.4 61.8 61.8 62. 1 98, 877 98, 919 92, 214 92, 609 3,357 3,323 88, 857 89, 286 3,285 3,220 6,663 6,310 1,829 1,797 63.3 63.3 99, 107 99, 093 99, 414 99, 784 100, 261 100, 573 100, 618 100, 549 100, 870 101, 062 101, 647 92, 881 93, 003 93, 266 93, 801 94, 112 94, 819 94, 425 94, 581 94, 868 95, 192 95, 735 3,354 3,242 3,310 3,275 3,235 3,473 3,387 3,360 3,411 3,380 3, 265 89, 527 89, 761 89, 956 90, 526 90, 877 91, 346 91, 038 91, 221 91, 457 91, 812 92, 470 2,986 3,193 3,164 3, 327 3,243 3,458 3,330 3,294 3,231 3,207 3,171 6,226 6,090 6,148 5,983 6,149 5,754 6, 193 5,968 6,002 5,870 5,912 1,688 1,568 1,463 1,384 1,358 1,231 1,292 1,215 1,293 1,370 1,251 63.3 63.2 63.3 63.5 63.7 63.8 63.8 63.6 63.7 63.8 64. 0 92, 473 92, 623 6,346 101, 009 5,880 101, 048 1978: Jan*.. Feb.. Mar.Apr-. May. June.. JulyAug_. Sept._ Oct_._ Nov__ 91, 053 91, 185 91, 964 93, 180 93, 851 95, 852 96, 202 96, 116 95, 041 96, 095 96, 029 6,897 6,739 6,479 5,685 5,457 6,326 6,438 5, 931 5,797 5,460 5, 629 101, 101, 101, 101, 102, 102, 102, 102, 102, 103, 103, 228 217 536 902 374 671 734 671 993 184 764 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find full-time work, etc. 2 Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of age and over. Total Agricultural Labor 91, 040 93, 240 94, 793 96, 917 99, 534 1977: Nov.. 159, 522 Dec.. 159, 736 159, 937 160, 128 160, 313 160, 504 160, 713 160, 928 161, 148 161, 348 161, 570 161, 829 162, 033 Unemplcsyment Civilian einploymen t 62.8 * Beginning 1978, data not strictly comparable with earlier data because of revisions in the household survey, which added about 250,000 to labor force and to employment. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In November the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 5.8 percent. Unemployment among whites feh to 5.0 percent while black unemployment increased to 11.8 percent. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 10 * UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Total (aU civilian workers) Period 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977. 1977: Nov Dec 1978: Jan Feb. Mar Apr May.__ June July Aug Sept Oct Nov __ . 4.9 5.6 8.5 7.7 7.0 6.7 6.4 6.3 6.1 6.2 6.0 6. 1 5.7 6.2 5.9 6.0 5. 8 5.8 Uneniploymeiat rate (' Dercent c f civiliaii labor f<>rce in gi*oup) I3y select ed groups Bys ex and a ge By race Men Women Both 20 20 sexes years years 16-19 and and years over 3.2 3.8 6.7 5.9 5.2 4.7 4.6 47 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.2 3.9 4. 1 4. 1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.8 5.5 8.0 7.4 7.0 6.9 6.6 6.1 5.7 5.8 5.8 6.3 6.1 6.5 6. 1 6.0 5.6 5.8 14.5 16.0 19. 9 19.0 17.7 17.2 15.6 16.0 17.4 17.3 16.9 16.5 14.2 16. 3 15. 6 16.6 16.3 16.2 * Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part-time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. 12 White 4.3 5.0 7.8 7.0 6.2 5.9 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 4.9 5.3 5.2 5.3 5. 1 5.0 ExpeFullBlack rienced time wage Household and and heads workother salary ers workers 4.3 2.9 4.5 8.9 3.3 5. 1 5.3 9.9 5.8 8.2 8. 1 13.9 7.3 5. 1 7.3 13.1 6.5 4,5 13. 1 6.6 4.2 6.2 13.7 6.3 3.9 5. 9 12.7 6.0 5.8 3.8 5.9 12.7 5.7 5.7 3.6 11.8 3.7 5.6 5.7 12.4 5.4 3. 6 11.8 5.5 5.6 3.7 12.3 5.6 5.2 3.6 5.4 11.9 5.7 3.9 5.7 12.5 3.7 5.5 5. 5 11.7 3.7 5.5 5.6 11.2 5.3 3.5 5.5 11.4 3.4 5.2 5.4 11.8 Parttime workers Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 7.9 8.6 10.3 10. 1 9.8 9.6 8.9 8.9 8.6 9.6 9.6 9.2 8.8 8.8 8.6 8.8 9. 1 9.0 Labor force time lost (per-l cent) 5.2 6. 1 9. 1 8.3 7.6 7.3 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.3 6.6 6.4 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.3 SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS The percentage of unemployed persons who were job losers decreased in November, while the percentage who were new entrants or reentrants to the labor force rose. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT 60 60 JOB LOSERS 40 40 X REENTRANTS 20 27 WEEKS OVER 20 JOB LEAVERS •V-<?*<' NEW ENTRANTS 15-26 WEEKS I I M 1 , I i I ,i I 1975 * SEASONALLY 1977 1976 1975 1978 1977 1976 1978 ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Period Unemployment (thousands) 1973__. _ 1974 1975__. __ 1976 1977 1977: Nov__ Dec.... 1978: Jan.__ Feb.__ Mar__ Apr— _ May__ June_ _ July___ Aug___ Sept__ Oct ^__ Nov *_ 4, 304 5,076 7,830 7,288 6,855 6,663 6,310 6,226 6,090 6, 148 5,983 6, 149 5,754 6, 193 5,968 6, 002 5,870 5,912 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Percenit distribution of unemPercerit distribution of unemState pi*ograms Insured unemplo yment by duratkm * ployment 1t>y reasoii i ployment, all 27 Insured Less regular 5-14 15-26 weeks Job Job Reen- New unemInitial than 5 weeks weeks enproand losers leavers trants trants ploy- claims weeks grams 2 over ment (unadjusted) Special unemployment benefit claims * (unadjusted) Weejkly aver age, thou sands 1 2 38.7 43. 4 55.4 49.8 45. 3 44.7 43.4 42.9 41.6 40.3 41. 2 42.5 40.6 41.3 42.4 40. 1 43.5 41.3 15.7 14.9 10. 4 12.2 13.0 13.3 13.9 13.6 14.7 13.9 14.5 13. 5 14.7 14. 1 14. 0 14.2 13.7 13.8 30. 7 28.4 23. 8 26. 0 28. 1 28.5 29.8 29. 0 29.4 30. 9 28.9 29.2 30.6 30.4 28.8 32.2 29.3 30. 1 14.9 13. 3 10.4 12. 1 13. 7 13.6 13.0 14.5 14.2 14.9 15.4 14.8 14. 1 14.2 14.8 13. 5 13.6 14.8 51. 0 50. 6 37. 0 38. 3 41.7 42. 4 41.3 43.2 43.3 45.8 46.8 48. 1 46.4 49. 0 46.8 46. 4 45. 9 47.8 Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding. Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, and Puerto Eico), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include FSB (Federal supplemental benefits) and SUA (special unemployment assistance). 30. 1 31.0 31. 3 29. 6 30.5 30.3 30.4 29.8 30.5 30.5 29.9 29.6 32.6 30.0 33. 0 32. 1 30.9 31. 1 11.0 11. 1 16. 5 13. 8 13. 1 13.9 14.8 13.8 15.0 12.4 12.0 11.2 11. 1 10.8 10.5 11.4 12.9 12. 2 7.8 7.3 15.2 18.3 14. 8 13. 3 13.5 13.2 11.2 11.3 11.2 11. 1 9.9 10.2 9. 7 10. 1 10.3 8.9 1,632 2,262 3,992 2,968 2,473 2,602 2,516 2,461 2,524 2,406 2,210 2,167 2, 194 2,392 2,550 2, 361 2,290 2,283 246 363 478 382 375 354 346 344 369 326 330 331 348 377 361 330 326 336 1,793 2,558 4, 943 3,822 3,'112 2,853 3,226 3,781 3,638 3,212 2,659 2,369 2,297 2,581 2, 394 2,064 1,999 1, 173 1, 152 572 315 259 192 143 102 60 36 21 a FSB and SUA. These programs started January 1975 and regular reporting began March 1975. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 467,000 in November. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) : 90 20 ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE 18 80 -SERVICES- 16 70 60 GOVERNMENT 14 SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 22 MANUFACTURING 50 \ 20 18 40 1111 1111111 I 1111 1111 .GOODS-PRODUCINGINDUSTRIES 30 II I I ! I I I I I I I I I I II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ' CONSTRUCTION 20 1975 1976 1977 1975 1979 1978 1976 1977 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1978 1979 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers;& seasonally adjusted] Service-pr oducing Industries CSroods-prc)ducing industriesI Feriod Total nonagricultural employment 1973 1974 1975_ _ 1976 1977 1977:Nov__ Dec— 1978: Jan. __ Feb— Mar__ Apr May__ June__ July._ Aug__ Sept__ Oct*__ Nov*>_ 76, 790 78, 265 76, 945 79, 382 82, 256 83, 549 83, 719 83, 871 84, 188 84, 726 85, 418 85, 618 85, 996 86, 033 86, 149 86, 163 86, 567 87, 034 TO • J Trans- Whole- Finance, Gover nment insurportasale ance, Services tion and State Non- Total and and retail Federal and durable Total Durable real public trade goods goods local estate utilities Ma-nufactui ing Total * Construction 24, 893 24, 794 22, 600 23, 352 24, 288 24, 617 24, 626 24, 648 24, 724 24, 927 25, 313 25, 341 25, 473 25, 501 25, 463 25, 471 25, 664 25, 878 4,097 4,020 3,525 3,576 3,833 3,928 3,955 3, 905 3,901 3,999 4,164 4,175 4,278 4,317 4,298 4,298 4,338 4,380 20, 154 20, 077 18, 323 18, 997 19, 647 19, 849 19, 984 20, 065 20, 139 20, 230 20, 282 20, 297 20, 316 20, 302 20, 278 20, 286 20, 432 20, 594 11, 891 11, 925 10, 688 11, 077 11, 573 11, 746 11, 851 11, 917 11, 986 12, 041 12, 076 12, 093 12, 109 12, 138 12, 146 12, 166 12, 302 12, 398 8,262 8,152 7,635 7,920 8,074 8, 103 8,133 8,148 8,153 8, 189 8,206 8,204 8,207 8,164 8, 132 8, 120 8,130 8,196 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they 14 51, 897 53, 471 54, 345 56, 030 57, 968 58, 932 59, 093 59, 223 59, 464 59, 799 60, 105 60, 277 60, 523 60, 532 60, 686 60, 692 60, 903 61, 156 4,656 4,725 4,542 4,582 4,696 4,736 4,749 4,758 4,782 4,817 4,847 4,847 4,881 4,827 4,846 4,855 4,920 4,946 16, 607 16, 987 17, 060 17, 755 18, 492 18, 830 18, 911 18, 991 19, 071 19, 169 19, 252 19, 335 19, 412 19, 469 19, 523 19, 546 19, 640 19, 705 4,046 4, 148 4,165 4,271 4,452 4,535 4,547 4,563 4,591 4,605 4,623 4,637 4,670 4,690 4,707 4,719 4,737 4,795 12, 857 13, 441 13, 892 14, 551 15, 249 15, 568 15, 618 15, 597 15, 670 15, 773 15, 866 15, 896 15, 963 15, 989 16, 074 16, 127 16, 149 16, 245 2,663 2,724 2,748 2,733 2,727 2,727 2,723 2,736 2,736 2,739 2,745 2,753 2,772 2, 765 2,765 2,752 2,767 2,767 11, 068 11, 446 11, 937 12, 138 12, 352 12, 536 12, 545 12, 578 12, 614 12, 696 12, 772 12, 809 12, 825 12, 792 12, 771 12, 693 12, 690 12, 734 are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. 2 Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NON&GRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Averag56 gross hourly earnings Aver•age weekly tours Period Total private nonagrieultural l Total Percent eh ange from a year earlier 4 Index,, 1*^67=100 Overtime Total private nonagncultural * Manufacturing Manufi icturing Adjusted h ourly earnin gs index2 —1<3tal private nonagriccultural Current dollars 1967 dollars 8 Current dollars 1967 dollars 37.7 37. 1 36.9 37.0 36.9 36.5 36. 1 36. 1 36.0 40.6 39.8 39.9 40. 5 40.7 40.0 39.5 40.1 40.3 3.6 3.0 2.9 3.5 3.8 3.3 2.6 3.1 3.4 $3.04 3.23 3.45 3.70 3.94 4.24 4.53 4.86 5.24 $3.19 3.35 3.57 3.82 409 443 483 5.22 5.67 113.2 120.7 129.2 137.5 146.0 157.5 170.7 183.0 196.8 103. 1 103.8 106.5 109.7 109.7 106.6 105.9 107.3 108.4 6.6 6.6 7.0 6.4 6.2 7.9 8.4 7.2 7.5 1.2 .7 2.6 3.0 0 -2.8 -.7 1.3 1.0 1977: Nov Dec 36.0 35.9 40.5 40.5 3.6 3.6 5.39 5.41 5.85 5.88 202.4 203.5 109.3 109.4 7.4 7.4 .6 .6 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July. Aug Sept Oet » Nov 9 35.5 35.7 36.0 36. 1 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.8 35.8 35.8 35.9 39.8 40.1 40.6 40.8 40.4 40.5 40.5 40.3 40.4 40.4 40.6 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.7 5.46 5.49 5.54 5.61 5.62 5.66 5.71 5.73 5.77 5.82 5.86 5.93 5.98 6.01 6.05 6.08 6. 12 6. 18 6.20 6.28 6.33 6.37 206.0 206.6 208.3 210.3 211.0 212.3 214 1 2146 216.2 217.9 218.9 109.9 109.5 109.5 109.6 109.0 108.7 109.0 108.7 108.7 108.7 7.8 7.6 7.9 8.2 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.3 1.0 1. 1 1.2 1.4 .9 .6 .6 .4 .1 -.5 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 _ __ B.2 8.1 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS—PRIVATE NONAGRICULTORMI INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average gross weekly <earnings Total pri vate nonagricuItural l Period Current dollars 1969_ 1970 1971. 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976, 1977 1977: Oct Nov Dec 1978: Jan... Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug. Sept Oct v Nov 9 1 _ . $114 61 119. 83 127. 31 136. 90 145. 39 154 76 163. 53 175. 45 188. 64 193. 50 194 04 194 22 193. 83 195. 99 199. 44 202. 52 201. 76 203. 19 204 99 205. 13 206. 57 208. 36 210. 37 Manufacturing 1967 dollars 3 $104 38 103.04 104.95 109. 26 109. 23 10478 101. 45 102. 90 103. 93 104 93 104 77 10442 103. 38 103. 86 10486 105. 59 10421 104 04 104 43 103. 92 103. 91 103. 97 $129. 51 133. 33 142. 44 154 71 166. 46 177. 20 190. 79 209. 32 228. 50 235. 71 236. 93 238. 14 236. 01 239. 80 244 01 246. 84 245. 63 247. 86 250. 29 249. 86 252. 50 255. 73 258. 62 $181. 54 195. 45 211. 67 221. 19 235. 89 249. 25 266. 08 283. 36 295. 29 297. 30 298. 48 298. 29 284 69 297. 26 312. 54 315.93 314 39 322. 65 323. 02 323. 51 323. 75 323. 98 325. 31 Percent chiinge from a year e arlier, total pri^/ate nonagricu]Itural • Current dollars (Current dollarsi i Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. 2 Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing. 1 Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index. Revised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 1978. Construction Wholesale and retail trade $91. 39 96.02 101. 09 106. 45 111. 76 119. 02 126. 45 133. 79 142. 19 145. 62 145. 31 146. 30 147. 48 147. 15 150. 15 151. 80 151. 34 151. 86 153. 64 154 16 155. 14 156. 46 157. 92 6.4 4.6 6.2 7.5 6.2 6.4 5.7 7.3 7.5 8.3 7.6 7.4 7.3 6.1 7.8 8.3 7.5 7.9 8.1 8.5 8.5 8. 1 8.4 1967 dollars 1.0 -1.3 1.9 41 -. 0 -41 -3.2 1.4 1.0 1.7 .8 .5 .5 —.2 1.3 1.7 .4 .5 .3 .6 .2 -. 6 * Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places. 5 Based on unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, PRIVATE BUSINESS ECONOMY Hours of 2all pers ons Out put* Output >er hour of all ppersons Unit labor COsts Compe nsation per 1lour 3 Implici } price deflal tor4 PriNonPriNonPriNonNonNonPrivate Private NonPrivate vate farm vate vate farm farm farm farm farm business business business business business business business business business business business business sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector Period 1967== 100; qua rterly dat a season ally ad jus ted 98.0 100.0 105. 1 108.3 98. 1 100.0 105.4 108.6 100.1 100.0 101.8 1046 99.8 100.0 102. 1 105.5 98.0 100.0 103.3 103.5 98.3 100.0 103.2 102.9 94.9 100.0 107.6 114.9 94.8 100. 0 107. 3 114. 1 96.8 100. 0 104. 1 111.0 96.4 100.0 104.0 110.9 97.2 100.0 103.9 108.8 96.8 100.0 104.0 108.6 .. 107. 3 110.3 117.6 124.5 121.5 107.4 110.2 117. 8 125.0 121.9 103.0 102.4 105.5 109.6 110.3 104.2 103.8 107.0 111.6 112.4 104.2 107.8 111.4 113.6 110.1 103. 1 106.3 110. 1 112.Q 108.5 123. 1 131.4 139.7 151. 1 164.8 121.7 129. 9 138.3 149. 1 162.7 118. 1 122.0 125.3 133. 1 149.7 118. 1 122. 3 125.6 133. 1 150.0 113. 9 118. 9 123. 1 130.2 143.0 114. 0 119. 1 122.8 127.9 141.3 nas — 118.8 126.5 133.2 127.0 133.6 105.6 108.7 112.6 107.5 111.0 115.4 112.4 116.4 118.2 110.5 114.4 115.8 181.2 197. 0 213. 0 178.8 193.7 209.3 161. 2 169.3 180.2 161.8 169.4 180.8 157.4 165.4 174.9 156.3 164.8 174.6 1976: III IV____. 127.1 127.6 127.7 128. 1 108.5 108.9 110.9 111.5 117.1 117.2 115.2 114.9 199.3 203.6 195. 8 199.9 170.1 173.8 170.1 173.9 166.3 168.5 165.7 168.2 1977: I !!_____ Ill IV 130. 5 132.5 134. 2 135.5 131.0 133.0 134. 6 135. 8 110.7 112.9 112. 9 113.9 113. 3 115.5 115.8 116.7 117.9 117.4 118.9 119. 0 115.6 115.2 116.2 116.4 207.5 210.5 215.3 218.8 203.9 207. 1 211.2 215. 1 176.0 179.3 181. 1 183.9 176.4 179.8 181. 7 184.8 170.6 174.0 176.3 178.4 170.0 173.6 176.4 178. 1 1978: I II III *___ 135.3 138.7 139.7 136.1 139.8 140. 5 115.0 117.6 117.4 117.8 120.6 120.5 117. 6 118.0 119.0 115.5 116.0 116. 6 225. 2 229.6 235.3 221.4 225. 8 231.0 191. 4 194. 6 197.8 191.7 194.7 198. 1 181.3 186. 6 190.0 180.6 185.3 189. 1 1966_ 1967 1968 1969__, 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 __ — Perceiat change ; quarterlyy data at seasonal] y adjustei i annual rates 7.1 5.4 7.6 6.8 6. 1 5.5 7.3 6.4 3.8 3.3 4. 1 6.6 3.5 3.8 4.0 6.6 3.2 2.9 3.9 4.7 2.9 3.3 4.0 4.5 3.6 1.7 -3.1 7.1 6.7 6.3 8.2 9.1 6.6 6.7 6.5 7.8 9. 1 6.4 3. 3 2.8 6.2 12.5 6.5 3.5 2.7 6.0 12.6 4.7 4.4 3.6 5.8 9.8 4.9 4.5 3. 1 4. 1 10. 5 2.1 3.5 1.6 1.9 3.5 1.3 9.9 8.7 8.1 9.9 8.4 8.1 7.7 5.0 6.4 7.8 4.7 6.7 10. 1 5. 1 5.7 10.6 5.4 5.9 2 2. 1 3.6 .1 2.7 Q 9.6 8.9 9.0 8.5 5.8 8.8 6.2 9.5 4.4 5.4 5.8 6. 1 6.6 8.3 — .1 3.7 6.8 7.7 1.3 3.0 2.5 -1.7 5. 1 ,4 2.4 — 1. 4 3.7 .5 7.9 5.8 9.5 6.7 8.3 6.5 8. 1 7.6 5.3 7.6 4.2 6.3 5.8 8.0 4.2 7. 1 5.2 8.2 5.2 4.9 4.4 8.7 6.5 4.0 4.0 9.2 -.5 3.9 9.8 -.3 -4.5 1.2 3.4 -3. 1 1.7 2.3 12. 1 8. 1 10.4 12. 2 8.2 9.5 17.4 6.8 6.7 15.7 6.4 7.1 6.7 12. 1 7.7 5.8 10.8 8.5 ^ 1.8 2.8 3.3 .2 2.1 3.3 3.2 2.0 3.3 .2 -1. 1 2.6 6.9 6.0 -2.5 -1.5 -.6 3.1 3.9 .7 -1.2 -.4 3.2 4.2 .7 .7 3.4 3.4 1.9 -3.0 -2.3 6.5 5.3 -2.5 6.9 5.2 -4.3 2.9 3.7 -4.3 3.3 3.9 1976:111 IV 2.8 1.6 2.5 1.2 -.8 1.6 1977:1 II III IV 9.3 6.5 5.0 4.0 9.4 6.2 5.0 3.5 -.6 10.5 2.9 .7 11.6 2.0 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971__. 1972 1973 1974 __ 1975 1976 1977 1978:1 II. _ _ _ III»___ 1 2 5.5 2.0 5.1 3.0 6.0 1.9 5.4 3.0 2.3 -.9 2.8 6.6 5.9 -2.4 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars. Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in production, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. s Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed. 4 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. 16 2.6 1.7 3.2 Q .1 3. 1 NOTE.—Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Data revised for 1966-1973. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production rose 0.7 percent in November, following increases of 0.5 percent in October and 0.4 percent in September. The index for November was 7.3 percent above a year earlier. INDEX, 1967= 100* (RATIO SCALE) 180 INDEX, 1967= 100* (RATIO SCAL| 160 UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 160 140 140 UTIUTJIS rv\ 120 1975 1976 1977 MINING 1978 10) 160 MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION l i 1 1 1 I I i i i 1 1 1 i 11 i 1975 1974 1976 1977 1978 PERCENT (RATIO SCALE) ,100 MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE NONDURABLE-^? 140 90 * 80 120 70 100 1974 1975 1977 1976 1978 1974 1978 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period Total in dustrial produ stion Percent Index, change 1967= from 100 year earlier COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Seasonally adjusted] Indusstry prodiiction indf 5xes, 1967 = 100 Miinufacturi ng Total Durable Nondurable 61.98 113.7 127. 1 125.7 109. 3 121.7 129.5 85.97 126.5 133.8 134 6 126.4 140.9 14a 1 Mining Utilities 6.86 113. 1 1147 115.3 112.8 1142 117.8 5.69 139.4 145.4 143.7 146.0 151.0 156.5 119.7 129.8 129.3 117. 8 129.8 137. 1 -8.9 10.2 5. 6 87.95 118.9 129.8 129.4 116.3 129.5 137. 1 1977: Oct Nov... Dec 138.9 139.3 139.7 6.7 5.9 5.0 139.4 139.9 140.5 132.4 132.7 133.4 149.6 150. 1 150.9 119.6 118.8 113.4 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June.. _ July Aug _ _ Sept Oct ». _ . Nov 9 138.8 139. 2 140.9 143.2 143.9 144.9 146. 1 147. 1 147.7 148.5 149.5 4.9 4.5 138.7 139.4 141.4 143.5 144. 3 145.5 146.7 147. 6 148.5 149.3 150.3 131. 1 131.5 134.4 136.9 137.6 139.0 141. 1 142. 2 142.9 144. 1 145. 1 149.8 150.6 151.4 153. 2 154.0 154.9 155.0 155.6 156. 6 157.0 157.8 115.0 1144 119.3 127.2 126.7 128.0 1967 proportion 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 100. 00 9.2 8.4 -.4 4. 1 5.2 5.0 5.2 5.3 6.5 6.6 6.9 7.3 i Output as percent of capacity. are averages of four monthly indexes. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Annual data are averages of quarterly data. 3 Annual data 1 127. 1 126.0 124.3 127.9 128.2 Manufa cturing cai-pacity utjdization rate, pi;rcent * Federal Reserve serles WharComTotal ton mercea manu- Mate- series series s rials facturing 842 73.6 80.2 82.4 88.0 92.4 87.7 73.6 80.4 81.9 83 86 83 77 81 83 91.8 97.1 92.9 80.4 87.5 90. 1 1540 1542 156.7 82.9 82.9 83.0 82.4 82.3 81.9 82 91.0 162.3 163.5 159. 5 156.0 157. 0 158.6 159.9 160.8 161.2 161.6 162. 1 81.7 81. 9 82.7 83.7 83. 9 84.3 84.7 85. 0 85.2 85.4 85. 7 81.9 81.3 81.9 84.0 84.5 85. 1 85.7 85.9 86. 2 86.6 87.0 84 90.1 84 92.5 83 93.7 83. 1 87.5 Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), and Wharton School of Finance. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1967=100, seasonally adjusted] Prod ucts Final Ideducts Coiisumer go ods Period Total 1967 proportion 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1977: Oct Nov Dec 1978: Jan Feb Mar__ Apr May_._ J\me__ July Aug.__ Sept Oct 9 Nov 9 __ 47.82 105.3 106.3 115.7 124.4 125.1 118.2 127.2 134.9 136.5 137.0 137.6 134. 9 136.4 138.9 140.5 140. 5 141. 1 142.2 143.3 143.8 144.5 145.3 _. _ Equip ment NonDurable durable goods goods Total 27.68 109. 0 114.7 124.4 131.5 128.9 124.0 136.2 143.4 144.9 145.2 145.8 141.8 143.8 145.9 147.5 147.0 147.0 147.7 148.4 148.9 149.8 150.6 7.89 106. 1 118.8 133.8 146.2 135.3 121.4 141.4 153. 1 156.8 155.2 155.8 146.5 151. 2 157.5 161.8 160.2 160.6 160.9 161.5 160. 2 162.6 163.3 Interm ediate prod ucts 19.79 110. 1 113. 1 120. 6 125.6 126.3 125. 1 134. 1 139.6 140.1 141.2 141.8 139.9 140.8 141.3 141. 8 141. 7 141.6 142.4 143. 1 144.3 144.7 145.6 Materials Construction supplies Total Business Total 20.14 100. 1 94.7 103.8 114. 5 120.0 110.2 114. 6 123.2 125.0 125.8 126.2 125.4 126.2 129.1 130.8 131.6 133.0 134.7 136.3 136.7 137.2 137.9 12.63 107.0 104. 1 118.0 134.2 142.4 128. 2 136.3 149.2 152.6 153.5 154.0 152.6 154.2 157.4 159.3 160.2 161.8 163. 8 165.4 166.0 166.9 168. 1 12.89 112.9 116.7 126.5 137.2 135.3 123. 1 137.2 145. 1 147.8 148.4 150.4 151.6 151.4 151.4 152. 1 152.6 154.7 155.6 156. 4 156. 8 157.4 158.6 6.42 111.0 116.8 128.4 139.8 134.5 116.3 132.6 140.8 1449 146. 5 148.3 149.2 148.6 147.9 148.5 150.4 152.1 153.5 154.7 155.7 156.7 157.9 39. 29 109.2 111.3 122.3 133.9 132.4 115.5 130.6 136.9 138.9 139.0 138.8 139.2 138.6 139. 9 143.7 145.1 146.4 147.9 148.6 149.5 150.5 151.6 Supplementary group: Energy total 12.23 117.0 119.5 125.2 128.3 125.5 125.5 128.8 132.5 133.0 132.3 129.7 132.5 130.0 129.8 133. 1 134.2 135.9 136.4 136. 1 135.9 137.4 138.5 [1967=100, seasonally adjusted] Nonelurable nlanufact ures Diarable m anufactu res Primari7 metals Period Total 1967 proportion 6. 57 1970 106.6 1971 100.2 1972 _ 112. 1 1973 126.7 1974 . __123.1 1975__ 96.4 1976 108.9 110.2 1977 1977: Oct 113.5 Nov _ _ _ 111.2 111.0 Dec 1978: Jan_. 107.4 Feb_ 106.2 Mar 106.1 Apr _ _ 1143 May _. _ 115.5 Junei_ 117.5 July 123.0 Aug___ __ 126.0 Sept 127.8 Oct » _ _ _ _ __ 128.4 Nov *>__ _ „ 129.4 Iron and steel 4.21 1047 96.1 107. 1 122.3 119.8 95.8 1049 103.4 107.7 104.3 103.8 99.5 96.3 96.4 109.0 110.5 1145 119.0 120.9 123.0 123.7 Fabricated metal products trical machin— ery Electrical machinery 5.93 102. 4 103.5 112. 1 1247 1242 109.9 123. 3 130.9 133.8 135.8 136.4 136.9 136.9 138. 1 139.5 140.4 142.3 144.0 145. 8 146.3 146.6 147.5 9. 16 1044 100.2 116. 0 133.7 140. 1 125. 1 135.0 1448 148.9 149.7 151.7 150. 1 150. 1 151. 5 152. 2 152. 9 1546 156. 1 157. 3 158.7 160.3 161.7 8.05 108. 1 107. 7 122.2 143. 1 143.8 116.5 131.6 141. 9 144 2 146.0 147.3 1440 146. 4 149.5 152.3 152.9 1541 157.9 156.9 158.3 158.3 159. 1 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 Non- Transp<srtation equip ment Total Motor vehicles and parts 9.27 89.5 97.9 108.2 118. 3 108.7 97.4 110.6 121. 1 124.3 122.0 122.2 116.2 118.4 126.5 130. 5 130. 1 130.4 132.1 133.4 132.9 137. 3 139. 1 4.50 92.3 118.6 135.8 148.8 128.2 111. 1 140.7 159.7 168.4 163. 0 161.8 146.6 153. 1 165. 1 171.7 168.3 167.7 169.7 171.0 168.9 177. 1 179.5 Lumber and products Apparel products Print- Cheming icals Foods and and pubprodlishing ucts 1.64 8.31 101.4 104.7 109.4 117.3 114.3 107.6 122.2 1242 129.0 125. 1 125.8 118.6 121. 1 122. 8 126. 1 125.8 126. 8 124. 5 127.2 130.7 4.72 107.0 107. 1 112.7 118.2 118.2 113.3 120.6 1247 125.7 126.2 127.5 129. 9 128.3 129.1 128.6 128.2 128.7 130.3 129.5 131.0 131. 2 131.6 105.6 113.8 120.8 126.0 116. 2 107.6 125. 1 133.4 135.7 137.5 138. 1 138.5 135. 5 136.5 136.9 136. 5 138.7 138.1 136.9 139. 2 140.4 7.74 120.4 125. 9 143.6 154.5 159.4 147.2 169.3 180.7 182.3 183. 1 183.0 1844 183. 7 185.2 185. 5 188. 1 191. 1 192.3 192. 2 192. 8 193.9 8. 75 108. 9 112.8 116.8 120.9 1240 123.4 132.3 137.9 137.3 139.4 140.4 139.3 140. 8 141. 1 143. 1 142. 8 141.8 142.9 144.0 144 2 143.8 NEW CONSTRUCTION Constraetion contracts2 Private Total new construction expenditures Period Resiclential Total Total * Commercial and industrial New housing Other Federal, State, and local CommerTotal value cial and index industrial (1967= floor space (millions of 100) square feet) Bil lions of dollars 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 110.0 124. 1 137.9 138.5 1345 148.8 172.6 i . 80. 1 93.9 105.4 100. 2 93.7 110.5 134.7 43.3 54.3 59.7 50.4 46.5 60.5 81.0 17.0 18. 1 21.7 23.8 20.8 19.9 22.5 35. 1 44.9 50. 1 40.6 34.4 47.3 65.7 19.8 21.5 24.0 25.9 26.4 30.0 31.3 Seasonally adjusted Seasonall] / adjusted aiinual rates 1977: Oct Nov Dec 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept" Get* _ 176.7 178. 1 179.0 171.4 177.6 185.4 195.3 201.6 205.8 208.3 206.4 207.7 208.0 139.2 140.6 142.3 134.9 141.9 147.7 153.7 156.5 160.6 159.9 158.0 159.4 160.2 84.2 85.2 87.4 79.4 85.3 88. 1 92.4 94.5 94.9 94. 0 92.5 92.5 92.8 24. 1 24.3 22.8 22.4 22.8 25.4 26.4 27.3 30.6 30.6 30.9 31.6 32.0 69.3 70.7 72.8 65.0 70.9 72.5 74.4 75.1 76.6 77.7 77. 1 76.8 76.2 1 Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. 2 P. W. Dodge series. Eelates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971 for floor space. 145.4 165.3 179.5 169.7 167.9 199.4 252.2 29.9 30.2 32.5 38.3 40.9 38.3 37.8 30.9 31. 1 32. 1 33.2 33.8 34 1 34.9 34.6 35. 1 35.3 34.7 35.3 35. 4 37.4 37.4 36.8 36.4 35.7 37.7 41.5 45.1 45.2 48.4 48.4 48.3 47.8 244 258 299 283 266 254 279 332 251 286 289 300 319 727 854 1,010 840 555 592 738 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 757 847 864 996 814 863 921 1,061 999 898 951 1,037 1,015 NOTE.—New construction expenditures data prior to 1973 not comparable with later data. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New priv ate homes *few private bousing uni » Period 1970 1971 1972... . 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 Units started, by type of striicture Total 1 unit 1, 433. 6 2, 052. 2 2,356.6 2, 045. 3 1, 337. 7 1, 160. 4 1, 537. 5 1, 987. 1 812.9 1, 151. 0 1, 309. 2 1, 132. 0 888. 1 892. 2 1, 162. 4 1, 450. 9 2-4 units 84.8 120.3 141.3 118.3 68. 1 64.0 85.9 121.7 Units 5 or more units 535. 9 780.9 906.2 795.0 381.6 204.3 289. 2 414.4 Homes for sale at end of period * ized Units completed 1, 351. 5 1,924.6 2, 218. 9 1, 819. 5 1, 074. 4 939. 2 1, 296. 2 1, 690. 0 1, 418. 4 1, 706. 1 2, 003. 9 2, 100. 5 1, 728. 5 1, 317. 2 1, 377. 2 1, 657. 1 485 656 718 634 519 549 646 819 220 287 409 418 346 313 354 403 1,769 1, 641 1,759 1,696 1,821 1,943 1,854 1,890 1,943 1,967 1,971 1,842 819 857 813 774 793 827 846 831 789 784 792 979 401 403 405 404 404 410 412 418 417 418 419 412 Homes sold Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent)2 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.0 5.6 5.2 Seasonally adjusted aimual rates 1977: Nov Dec 1978: Jan _ Feb Mar_. Apr May June July Aug" _. Sept » Oct * Nov » 2,096 2,203 1,548 1,569 2,047 2,165 2,054 2,124 2,119 2,025 2,075 2,095 2,104 1,544 1,574 1,156 1,103 1,429 1,492 1,478 1,441 1,453 1,440 1,463 1,459 1,498 1 Seasonally adjusted. a Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. 134 153 101 79 126 142 89 148 135 139 111 139 165 418 476 291 387 492 531 487 535 531 446 501 497 441 1,822 1,778 1,526 1,534 1,647 1,740 1,597 1,821 1,632 1,563 1,731 1,719 1,691 5. 1 5.0 5. 1 5.0 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—TOTAL AND TRADE Business sales rose 2^ percent in October while inventories rose $3 billion. According to the advance survey, retail sales rose 2 percent in November following an increase of 1M percent in October. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 100 400 90 350 TOTAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES 80 V 300 70 60 250 RETAIL SALES 50 200 TOTAL SALES 40 150 RATIO* INVENTORY-SALES RATIO 100 1.20 1974 1975 1976 1977 1974 1978 1977 1978 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUJ4CII OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total biosiness * Period 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1977: Nov Dec 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept_ Get* Nov 9 balesz Q_-|__ A 116, 351 130, 049 .151, 647 175, 200 179, 621 200, 760 223, 793 Inventories3 188, 508 203, 088 233, 749 285, 064 283, 614 309, 238 334, 785 Who!esale Retail Sales2 Durcj 1 Inven-3 Sales *2 tories able TWol goods stores Mali ons of d<sllars, se,asonally 26, 257 29, 584 36, 822 45, 836 44, 633 48, 408 53, 509 35, 823 39, 786 46, 254 56, 537 55, 113 61, 307 67, 998 34, 169 37, 422 41,871 44, 543 48, 370 53, 542 59, 029 Inventoiry-4sales ratio Total business J Retail adjusted 23, 342 25, 054 27, 781 30, 723 33, 463 35, 998 39, 127 50, 063 55, 079 62, 950 70, 716 70, 623 78, 045 87, 073 231, 550 333, 186 55, 558 67, 047 61, 650 20, 795 40, 855 86, 299 237, 017 334, 785 57, 266 67, 998 61, 813 20, 674 41, 139 87, 073 230, 294 337, 676 55, 985 68, 991 59, 987 19, 914 40, 073 87, 708 238, 165 340, 396 57, 635 70, 361 61, 548 20, 445 41, 103 87, 642 242, 627 345,839 58, 877 72, 882 62, 649 20, 897 41, 752 89, 097 250, 606 350, 545 62, 152 74, 867 63, 917 21, 807 42, 110 89,963 251, 869 354, 226 64, Oil 75, 474 64, 292 21, 821 42, 471 91, 063 252, 639 356, 920 63, 235 75, 820 64, 565 22, 092 42, 473 91, 543 250, 853 359, 301 63, 404 75, 664 64, 343 21, 844 42, 499 92, 470 258, 306 362, 815 64, 573 76, 253 65, 862 22, 908 42, 954 93, 680 258, 311 364, 747 64, 045 77, 020 66, 347 22, 812 43, 535 93, 664 264, 567 367, 635 66, 728 78, 599 67, 225 23, 339 43, 886 94, 301 68, 584 23, 707 44, 877 1 The term "business" also includes manufacturing (see page 21). 2 Monthly average for year and total for month. 34 Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month. 20 10, 827 12, 369 14, 091 13, 820 14, 907 17, 544 19, 901 Inventoriesi DurNonNondurable Tnf nl able durable goods goods goods stores stores stores 21, 687 24, 238 28, 072 32, 394 32, 119 36, 417 40, 534 28, 376 30, 841 34, 878 38, 322 38, 504 41, 628 46, 539 1.58 1.50 1.44 L47 1.58 1.48 1.44 1.39 1.40 1.41 1.48 1.43 1.39 1.40 40, 087 46, 212 40, 534 46, 539 1.44 1.41 1.40 1.41 41, 060 41, 369 41, 521 41, 881 42, 300 42, 036 42, 359 42, 640 42, 565 43, 039 1.47 1.43 1.43 1.40 1.41 1.41 1.43 1.40 1.41 1.39 1.46 1.42 1.42 1.41 1.42 46, 648 46, 273 47, 576 48, 082 48, 763 49, 507 50, 111 51, 040 51, 099 51, 262 1.42 1.44 1.42 1.41 1.40 Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). MANUFACTURERS1 SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND NEW ORDERS Manufacturers* orders, shipments, and inventories rose in October. According to advance data, durable goods orders and shipments fell in November. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 140 120 100 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 140 120 100 INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO 1977 1974 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Manufac turers1 shi pments 1 Manufact urers1 inv entories 2 Period Total NonDurable durable goods goods Total NonDurable durable goods goods Manul raeturers 7 new ord ers l Total Durabl e goods ManufacCapital Non- turers1 goods indus- durable unfilled3 Total goods orders tries, nondefense Millioins of dollatrs, season ally ad justed 102, 622 66, 271 36, 351 56, 016 30, 030 108, 223 70, 244 37, 979 64, 201 35, 098 124, 545 81, 333 43, 212 76, 224 42, 894 157, 811 101, 790 56, 021 87, 200 46, 783 157, 878 101, 580 56, 298 85, 058 41, 933 169, 886 108, 968 60, 918 99, 134 50, 997 179, 714 115,424 64, 290 112, 842 59, 795 55, 925 63, 043 72, 954 84, 821 86, 616 98, 809 111,256 29, 973 34, 043 39, 704 44, 253 43, 678 50, 697 58, 266 25, 952 28, 999 33, 250 40, 568 42, 939 48, 112 52, 990 1977: Oct____ 114, 091 Nov.. 114, 342 Dec... 117, 938 60, 316 60, 228 62, 130 53, 775 179, 301 114,448 54, 114 179, 840 115,212 55, 808 179, 714 115, 424 64, 853 117, 331 63, 556 64, 628 117, 024 62, 821 64, 290 122, 128 66, 165 1978: Jan___ 114, 322 Feb... 118, 982 Mar... 121, 101 124, 537 Apr May.. 123, 566 June _ _ 124, 839 July... 123, 106 Aug._. 127, 871 Sept 127, 919 Oct___ 130, 614 Novs. 59, 973 63, 077 64, 457 66, 493 65, 417 66, 293 65, 222 68, 684 §8, 916 70, 292 71, 629 54, 349 55, 905 56, 644 58, 044 58, 149 58, 546 57, 884 59, 187 59, 003 60, 322 64, 699 64, 882 65, 135 65, 867 66, 218 66, 869 67, 337 67, 676 67, 887 67, 951 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 180, 977 182, 393 183, 860 185, 715 187, 689 189, 557 191, 167 192, 882 194, 063 194, 735 116, 278 117,511 118, 725 119, 848 121, 471 122, 688 123, 830 125,206 126, 176 126, 784 i3 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales. Book value, end of period. 8 End of period. * For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shirvmeTits 1978 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 117,899 122, 544 125, 801 128, 175 128, 450 127, 580 123, 279 130, 952 131, 840 137, 162 63, 335 66, 681 69, 016 70, 033 70, 045 68, 840 65, 187 71, 582 72, 645 76, 984 76, 263 7,535 8,832 11, 114 12, 691 10, 781 12, 501 15, 201 Manufacturers1 inventory— shipments ratio * 107, 657 121, 709 161, 194 189, 678 170, 686 174, 553 193, 659 1.83 1.67 1.58 1.65 1.83 1.66 1.58 16, 097 53, 775 186, 787 16, 090 54, 203 189, 469 16, 988 55, 963 193, 659 1.57 1.57 1.52 16, 511 17, 882 17, 507 17, 409 18, 124 18, 155 17, 074 19, 344 20, 149 22, 219 19, 963 1.58 1.53 1.52 1.49 1.52 1.52 1.55 1.51 1.52 1.49 25, 986 29,104 33, 329 40, 417 43, 125 48, 137 53, 047 54, 564 55, 863 5.6, 785 58, 142 58, 405 58, 740 58, 092 59, 370 59, 195 60, 178 197,235 200, 798 205, 500 209, 133 214, 010 216, 754 216, 922 219, 999 223, 921 230, 464 s Preliminary; not charted. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. PRODUCER PRICES PRICES In November, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.8 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished consumer foods increased 0.6 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods rose 0.7 percent. Prices of capital equipment increased 1.0 percent. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 140 140 120 120 100 100 1971 1979 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967= 100; m onthly <data setisonally adjuste d] ]Finishec [ goods In1iermedi ate Enateria]s Crud e materials Total conFoodsumer stuffs CapiFoods finished Total and 2 Other Total and Other tal feedequip- goods feeds stuffs ment * FInished goods excludin g consumerfc ods Period Total finConished sumer goods foods Total Cons umer g oods Total / 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1977: Nov Dec 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr-. May June July Aug Sept Oct__ Nov 110.3 113.7 117.2 127.9 147.5 163.4 170.3 180.6 1845 185.3 186. 6 188.6 189.6 192.0 _ 193.4 __ 194.8 195.8 195.5 197.2 198.9 200.4 113.5 115.3 121.7 146.4 166.9 181.0 180.2 189. 1 191.9 192.6 194.8 200. 7. 202. 1 205.8 206.7 209.1 208. 1 205.2 208.6 212. 1 213.4 109. 1 113.1 115.4 120.2 139.4 156.2 165 5 176.2 180.3 181.2 182.2 183.0 183.9 185.8 187.3 188.4 190.0 190. 6 191.7 192.9 194.5 107.7 111.4 113.4 118.5 138.6 153.1 161.8 172.1 175.4 176.1 177. 1 177.6 178.4 180.8 182.3 183.2 185.0 185.6 186.6 187.8 189. 1 TYiii* flhlo 106.9 110.8 113.2 115.4 125.9 138.2 144.4 152. 2 155.5 156.1 157.4 157.7 158.7 163.2 165.5 165.8 168.7 169.6 170.3 170. 3 171.1 Nondurable 108.3 111.7 113.6 120.5 146.8 163.0 173.3 185.4 188.8 189.5 190.3 190.9 191. 5 192.4 193.3 194.6 195.5 195.9 197. 1 199.2 200.9 * Formerly called producer finished goods. 2 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and manufactured animal feeds. 22 112.0 116.6 119.5 123.5 141.0 162.5 173.2 184.5 189.9 191.3 192.3 193.5 194.6 195.7 197.3 198.7 199.9 200.6 201.8 203.0 205.0 109.9 112.9 116.6 129.2 149.3 163.6 169. 0 178.9 182. 1 182.7 184.2 186.4 187.5 190.4 191.6 193. 1 194.0 193.4 195. 1 197. 1 198.5 109.9 114. 1 118.7 131.6 162.9 180.0 189.3 201.7 205.2 206.0 207.9 209.7 211.3 212.4 213.7 214.6 215.5 216. 4 217.9 220. 6 222.2 109. 1 111.7 118.5 168.4 200.2 195.3 186.6 191.0 185.4 183.3 187.2 191.0 201. 1 201.2 206.4 200.8 204.0 197. 1 201.5 207. 1 206.4 109.9 114.3 118.9 128. 1 159.5 178.6 189.5 202.4 206.4 207.4 209.2 210.9 212.0 213. 1 214.2 215.4 216.2 217.5 218.9 221.4 223.2 112.3 115.1 127.6 174.0 196. 1 196.9 205. 1 2143 2144 217.2 221.6 228.7 231.7 238.5 238.9 243. 1 241.7 238.6 242. 3 249.6 253.3 NOTE.—Data revised for July 1978. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 112.0 114.2 127.5 180.0 189.4 191.8 190. 1 190.9 189.9 191. 1 196.4 205.6 208.0 217.0 217. 1 221.3 215.7 211.9 215.9 223.7 226.5 112.7 117.0 128.0 162.5 208.9 206.9 233.6 258.4 260.9 266.3 269.4 272.1 276.5 278.8 279.8 284 2 291.0 289.6 292. 51 298. 6 304 1 CONSUMER PRICES In October, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.8 percent (also 0.8 percent seasonally adjusted). Food prices increased 0.6 percent (0.8 percent seasonally adjusted). Nonfood commodity prices rose 0.7 percent (also 0.7 percent seasonally adjusted) and services prices were up 0.9 percent (0.8 percent seasonally adjusted). INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 220 INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 220 200 - 120 100 1970 1971 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967=100] Period 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 All items Food Commodities less food 116.3 121.3 125.3 133. 1 147.7 161.2 170.5 181.5 1149 118.4 123.5 141.4 161.7 175.4 180.8 192.2 112.5 116.8 119.4 123. 5 136.6 149.1 156.6 165.1 Services Services commodities All Food at home Food away from home AH Durable Nondurable 121.6 12R4 133.3 139.1 152.1 166.6 180.4 1943 113.5 117.4 120.9 129.9 145.5 158.4 165.2 1747 1149 118.4 123.5 141.4 161.7 175.4 180.8 192.2 113.7 116.4 121.6 141.4 162.4 175.8 179.5 190.2 119.9 126. 1 131. 1 141.4 159.4 1743 186. 1 200.3 112.5 116.8 119.4 123.5 136.6 149. 1 156.6 165.1 111.8 116.5 118.9 121.9 130.6 145.5 1543 163.2 113. 1 117.0 119.8 1248 140.9 151.7 158.3 166.5 121.6 128.4 133.3 139.1 152.1 166.6 180.4 1943 Seasonal ly adjust ed Unacljusted 1944 195.6 196.3 167.4 168.1 168.4 19R5 199.5 200.5 176.7 177.5 17&3 195.0 196.0 196.7 192.5 193.5 1942 2045 205. 1 206. 1 166.8 167.6 168.4 164.4 165. 1 166.0 168.6 169.4 169.9 198.7 199. 5 200.3 187.2 199.2 188.4 202.0 189.8 2042 191.5 207.5 193.3 210.3 195.3 213.8 196.7 215.0 197.8 215.4 199.3 215.6 200.9 216.8 168.6 168.8 170.0 171.3 173.0 1744 175.4 176.3 177.8 179.1 203.5 2049 206.5 208.0 209.9 211.7 213.4 215.6 217.6 202. 0 179.9 180.8 182.3 1840 185.6 187.2 187.9 188.7 190.1 191.5 199.2 201.6 2043 208. 1 211.2 2140 213.9 214.5 215.6 217.3 197.0 199.5 202.5 207.3 211. 1 214 0 213.2 213.3 214 1 216.0 208.4 210.5 212.5 2140 215.8 218.2 219.9 221.7 223.2 224.6 169.5 169. 9 170.9 171.8 172.8 173.9 1749 175.7 177.2 178.5 167.6 168.7 169.5 170.4 171.8 173.2 1744 175.2 176.7 178.1 170.6 170.1 171.2 172. 1 172.8 173.5 1744 175.2 176.6 177.4 201.5 203.0 2047 206.6 208.7 210.5 212.2 214.0 215.7 217.5 1977: Oct 1845 Nov... 185.4 Dec 186. 1 1978: Jan Feb. Mar..._ Apr May... June July... Aug — Sept.__ Oct Comnlodities le ss food Food All CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS Period 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1977: Nov Dec 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Percen j change from pr<3ceding perioc i; season ally adjuisted 1 Percen t change from 3 inonths earlie r; seasorlally adjiisted annua i rates Percen fc changefrom 6 rnonths earlie r; seasortally adjiisted annua . rates Consum er goods Consumer goods Consum er goods Total finished goods 4.8 2.2 3.2 3.8 11.8 18.3 6.6 3.3 6.6 .7 .4 .7 1. 1 ,. .5 1.3 .7 .7 .5 2 .9 .9 .8 Capital Total finequipExclud- ment ished goods ing Foods foods 8.2 -2.5 5.9 8.0 22.5 3.0 5.5 -2.5 6.6 1.3 .4 1. 1 3.0 .7 1.8 .4 1.2 -.5 -1.4 1.7 1.7 .6 2.9 3.9 2.0 2.0 7.4 20.5 6.7 4.9 6.1 .3 .4 .6 .3 .5 1.3 .8 .5 1.0 .3 .5 .6 .7 Capital Total equipfinExclud- ment ished ing Foods goods foods Foods Capital equipExclud- ment ing foods 4.6 4.9 2.4 2.0 5.3 22.6 8.2 6.4 7.2 .5 .7 .5 .6 .6 .6 .8 .7 .6 .4 .6 .6 1.0 6.8 7.2 7.6 9.2 9.6 5.6 7.4 11.7 19.6 21.2 24.6 12. 5 14.6 12. 1 10.6 11.4 8.2 4.4 5.0 6.5 10.1 10.9 5.3 8.6 7. 1 8. 1 17.0 10.5 10. 1 8.7 8.9 6.9 6.4 6.3 9.6 7.4 7.6 6.2 7.8 7.9 5.0 6.2 8.0 8.4 9.8 9.9 7.3 11.0 11.2 -2.9 -1.0 4. 4 7.4 7.8 5. 1 4.5 10.4 5.2 4.7 5.4 7.5 8.2 7.3 7.4 9. 1 -0.3 4.6 4.3 5.3 2.4 5.2 12.4 14. 1 17.9 16.0 17.9 14. 1 5. 1 5.0 7.0 8.0 8.2 9. 1 4.5 6.5 6.2 6.6 9.2 9.4 7.9 7.6 7.9 8.4 8.6 8.9 9.0 7.3 7.9 7.9 8.1 7.5 7.5 7.6 8.0 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. i Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted). NOTE.—Based on revised data for July 1978. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES Percent change from pre ceding peno(i; seasontally ad jussted1 Period 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1977 : Oct ... Nov___ Dec___ 1978: Jan... Feb_._ Mar Apr May~_ June... July... Aug.— Sept... Oct..1 All items 6. 1 5.5 3.4 3.4 8.8 12.2 7.0 4.8 6.8 .3 .4 .4 .8 .6 .8 .9 .9 .9 .5 .6 .8 .8 Food 7.2 2.2 4.3 4.7 Commodities less food 4.5 4.8 2.3 2.5 5.0 Services Services All items Food Commodities less food Services 3.6 6.2 13.2 4.9 .4 .5 .5 7.3 7.9 .4 .4 .4 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.9 1.5 1.3 -.0 .3 .5 .8 .7 .2 .6 .5 .6 .6 .6 .5 .9 .7 .6 .7 .8 .9 1.0 .9 .8 .8 .8 .8 11.3 8. 1 4.5 4.7 4.9 6.7 7.5 9.3 10.0 11.3 11.4 9.7 8.3 7.8 8.8 Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted). NOTE.—Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. Earlier data relate to urban wage earners and clerical workers. 24 Food Commodities less food 4. 1 6.5 .6 8.0 .2 .5 .4 5. 1 All items 7.4 8.2 20. 1 12.2 6.2 Percent c lange f re>m 3 mont bs earlier ; Percent c lange f re»m 6 months earlier ; seasonsilly adjussted annu al rates seasonsilly adjussted annu al rates 3.1 3.5 4.2 3.4 4.7 5.4 6.3 5.6 4.9 4.8 4.7 5. 1 3.7 3.6 3.0 3.3 3.7 40 7.8 7.0 6.3 8.9 6.6 5.6 6.1 5.5 7.0 7.2 7.4 6.9 7.8 8.5 5.8 7.2 5.6 6.0 7.7 5. 1 5.0 6.0 6.4 7.0 8.1 9.4 11.9 16.4 19.1 20. 5 20.4 11.6 6.4 3.0 6.5 9. 1 10.5 11.7 11.8 11.3 10. 6 10.3 10.4 6. 1 7. 1 8.3 9.4 10.4 9.8 9.8 9.6 9.3 10. 1 13.9 16. 1 18.4 15.3 13. 2 11.4 9.0 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5.7 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.5 6.9 7.5 8.0 10.4 10.9 11.1 11.0 10.8. —I PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers decreased 1y2 percent in November. Contributing most to the decline were lower prices for hogs, cattle, and citrus fruits. Partially offsetting were higher prices for eggs, lettuce, milk, corn, and wheat. Prices paid by farmers were unchanged in the month ended November 15. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) PRICES RECEIVED (ALL FARM PRODUCTS) PRICES PAID (ALL ITEMS, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1976 1975 1978 1977 J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES, ON 1910-14=100 BASE. SOURCE-. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Prices paid by far mers All items, Family ProducLivestock interest, tion and living taxes, and items items products wage rates Index, 1<367=100 Prices received by farmers Period 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1977: Oct Nov „_ Dec 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov . All farm products 110 113 125 179 192 185 186 183 177 178 181 186 193 200 208 215 217 215 210 215 217 214 Crops 100 108 114 175 224 201 197 192 178 184 183 188 190 198 208 212 216 212 202 203 200 200 118 118 136 183 165 172 177 175 176 174 180 185 196 204 209 217 219 217 217 226 232 228 1 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by fanners to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates on 1910-14=100 base. 3 The adjusted parity ration reflects Government payments made directly to farmers. 112 118 125 144 164 180 191 202 201 202 203 209 211 214 216 219 220 220 220 223 224 224 (3) (33) (3) () (3) («) (33) (3) () (33) () (33) () (33) 114 118 123 133 151 166 176 108 113 121 146 166 182 193 200 198 199 199 203 206 211 214 217 218 218 217 220 222 223 Parity ratio l Actual 72 71 74 91 86 76 71 66 €5 65 66 65 67 69 71 72 73 72 70 71 71 70 Adjusted * 77 75 79 94 87 76 72 68 66 66 67 67 69 71 73 74 75 74 72 73 73 72 s Index discontinued. Consumer price index (Department of Labor) substitute in calculating total prices paid beginning January 1977. Source: Department of Agriculture. MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK The narrower monetary aggregates declined in November while the broader M2 and Ms continued to rise. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SC IILUONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 300 200 200 1978 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCi: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] (Overall measur<38 l Total 2 Large CDs Savings Deposits at nonbank thrift institutions Deposit s at com mercia] banks Period Mi M1+ M2 Perce nt charige 3 C/ompone nts and i elated ]terns M3 Currency Demand Time and sa vings U.S. Government demand deposits (unadjusted) Mi M1+ M2 1973: Dec._ 270.5 1974: Dec.. 282.9 1975: Dec.. 295.2 1976: Dec.. 313.5 1977: Dec.. 338.5 1977: Nov. 336.2 Dec.. 338.5 397.7 419.0 456.4 516.8 560. 2 557.7 560.2 571.4 612.2 664.7 740.5 809.5 805.4 809.5 919.2 981.2 1} 092. 5 1, 286. 5 1, 376. 1 1, 367. 1 1, 376. 1 61.5 67.8 73.7 80.7 88.6 87.7 88.6 209.0 215. 1 221. 5 232.8 249.9 248.5 249.9 363.9 418.3 450.9 489.7 545.0 540. 1 545.0 63.0 89.0 81.3 62.7 74.0 70.9 740 127.0 135.8 160.5 201. 9 219.6 219.4 219. 6 347.8 369. 1 427.8 496. 0 566. 6 561.7 566. 6 6.3 4.9 4. 1 4.4 5.1 3.5 5. 1 6.0 4.6 4.3 6.2 8.0 7.9 8. 1 5.0 5.4 8.9 13.2 8.4 7.3 7.5 8.8 7.1 8.6 11.4 9.3 9.5 9.0 1978: Jan.. 341.7 Feb.. 341.8 Mar. 342.9 Apr._ 348.5 May. 350.6 June- 352.8 July - 354.2 Aug.. 356.7 Sept. 360.9 Oct.. 262.0 Nov» 360.6 564.6 565.0 566. 2 572.6 575.2 577. 1 577.8 582.0 587. 9 588.8 585.3 815.9 819. 1 822.6 830.3 835.2 840. 6 846.2 853.5 862.4 867.4 870.5 1, 386. 6 1, 393. 1 1, 400. 3 1, 411. 4 1, 419. 9 1, 429. 8 1, 441. 0 1, 455. 1 1, 472. 1 1, 484. 4 1, 492. 8 89.4 90. 1 90.7 91.2 92. 1 92.8 93.3 94.0 95. 2 96.0 96.8 252. 2 251.7 252.3 257.3 258.5 259.9 260.9 262.8 265.7 266. 1 263.8 550.6 556.7 561.7 565.2 571.6 574.5 579.4 583.0 589.7 593. 6 605.3 76.3 79.4 82.0 83.4 87. 1 86.7 87.4 86.3 88. 1 88.2 95.4 220.7 220. 9 221.0 221.6 222. 0 221.7 220.9 222. 4 224. 2 223.9 221.9 570.7 574.0 577.7 581.2 584.7 589.2 594.7 601. 6 609. 6 616.9 622. 3 4.3 4. 3 4.8 5.0 4. 0 6.2 4.5 3. 6 6.2 4.3 8. 1 8. 1 7. 0 6.0 7.6 8.7 8. 6 7.5 8.9 10.8 7.9 5.8 7.5 5.8 4.6 5.5 6.4 6. 1 4.7 6. 1 7.8 5.7 3.5 8.2 7.7 7.0 7.3 7.5 7.8 7.6 8. 6 9.9 9. 1 8.6 1 MI is currency plus demand deposits; MH- is Mi plus savings deposits at commercial banks and checkable deposits at nonbank thrift institutions; M2 is Mi plus time and savings deposits at eonrmereial banks other than large certificates of deposit (CDs); and M3 is M2 plus deposits at nonbank thrift institutions. 26 a 3 Includes time deposits other than large CDs, not shown separately. Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System. PRIVATE LIQUID ASSET HOLDINGS— NONFINANCIAL INVESTORS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Curre ncy and c eposits Period 1970: 1971: 1972: 1973: 1974: 1975: 1976: 1977: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec.. Dec Dec Currency Total Demand deposits Commercial banks Other private money market instruments Negotiable certifiShortNonbank cates of term Savings marketthrift deposit institu- bonds able setions curities seeuiities 769.7 852.5 967.2 _ 1, 085. 3 1, 170. 2 1, 290. 6 1, 424. 6 1, 591. 0 632.7 719.0 816. 6 887.7 945.0 1, 055. 3 1, 195. 2 1, 328. 3 49. 1 52. 6 56. 8 61.5 67. 8 73. 7 80.7 88.6 152. 0 161. 8 176.1 183.7 187. 1 192. 4 200.0 213.9 198. 9 233. 6 264. 3 294.4 321. 1 360. 6 417.3 459.2 - 232. 7 271. 1 319. 3 348. 1 369. 1 42& 6 497. 3 566. 6 52.0 54.3 57. 6 60.4 63. 3 67. 2 71.9 76.6 41.9 31.5 34.3 43.4 47. 1 66. 3 66.5 77.6 21.8 27.6 36. 2 53.8 70.4 58.4 43.2 52.3 21.3 20. 1 22. 5 1, 576. 5 1, 591. 0 1, 319. 2 1, 328. 3 87. 7 88.6 212.1 213. 9 457.6 459.2 561.7 566. 6 76.2 76.6 77.1 77.6 50.0 52. 3 54.0 56.3 1, 607. 7 ... _ 1, 619. 2 1,631.0 1, 647. 4 1, 662. 3 1, 674. 2 1, 686. 3 1, 699. 2 1, 720. 3 1, 732. 0 1, 747. 5 1, 339. 1 1, 345. 6 1, 352. 8 1, 363. 5 1, 371. 5 1, 381. 6 1. 393. 8 1, 407. 8 1, 424. 3 1, 436. 1 1, 445. 3 89. 4 90. 1 90.7 91.2 92. 1 92. 8 93.3 94.0 95.2 96.0 96.8 216.6 216. 0 216. 3 221.5 222. 1 223. 1 224.5 226.2 228.4 228.1 225.9 462.4 465.5 468. 1 469.6 472.5 476.5 481.3 486. 1 491.0 495.1 500.2 570.7 574.0 577.7 77.0 77.4 77.8 78. 2 78. 6 78. 9 79.3 79. 5 79.8 80.1 80.4 79.5 80. 1 79.8 80.7 81.6 81.7 80.1 80. 6 83.6 83.0 81.9 53.4 54.8 56.5 58. 6 62. 3 61.7 61.7 59.6 60.7 60.3 67.0 58.7 61.4 64. 1 66.4 68.3 70.4 71,4 71. 6 72.0 72.4 73.0 .__ 1977: Nov Dec 1978: Jan Feb... Mar AprMay. June July Aug Sept Oct Nov " U.S. T reasury Timec eposits Total liquid assets 581.2 584. 7 589.2 594.7 601. 6 609.6 616.9 622.3 40.0 44.4 43.3 47.8 56.3 Source: Board of Governors of tho Federal Eeserre System. CONSUMER INSTALMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Instalm ent credit e xtended Instalm ;nt credit lit |ui dated Net change in amount autstanding Period Total1 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 _ - _ __ 1977: Oct. Nov Dec 1978: Jan_ Feb Mar. Apr May June July Aug._ Sept Oct __ Automobile Revolving Automobile Revolving Total1 Automobile Revolving 115, 132 138, 046 151, 749 173, 035 172, 765 180, 441 211, 028 254, 071 30, 857 36, 706 43, 702 49, 606 46, 514 52, 420 63, 743 75, 641 8,689 21, 862 24, 659 28, 702 33, 213 36, 956 43, 934 86, 756 110, 352 127, 789 136, 787 152, 817 163, 276 172, 676 189, 381 218, 793 31, 414 32, 512 38, 081 43, 696 46, 019 49, 444 53, 278 60, 437 7,278 20, 818 23, 485 26, ,699 31, 243 35, 616 41, 764 80, 508 4,780 10, 257 14, 962 20, 218 9,489 7,765 21, 647 35, 278 -557 4, 194 5,621 5,910 495 2,976 10, 465 15, 204 1,411 1, 044 1, 174 2, 003 1,970 1,340 2, 170 6,248 22, 273 22, 487 22, 832 6,503 6,719 6,889 7,666 7,716 7,985 19, 066 18, 891 19, 252 5,274 5, 179 5,252 6,999 7,024 7,226 3,207 3,596 3,579 1,229 1,540 1,637 667 692 758 21, 983 22, 758 23, 925 24, 682 25, 104 25, 565 25, 022 25, 669 25, 537 25, 855 6,541 6,730 7,043 7,434 7,592 7, 595 7, 652 7,744 7,542 7,511 7,960 8,147 8, 398 8,523 8,563 9, 062 8, 700 9, 028 9,006 8,846 19, 546 19, 896 19, 849 20, 576 20, 824 21, 358 21, 556 22, 037 21, 857 22, 732 5,215 5,397 5,409 5, 622 5, 715 5, 953 5, 941 6, 140 6, 010 6, 126 7,545 7,698 7,566 7,840 7,919 8, 107 8, 100 8,291 8,384 8,500 2,437 2,862 4,076 4, 106 4,280 4,207 3,466 3, 632 3,680 3, 123 1,326 1,333 1, 634 1, 812 1,877 1,642 1,711 1, 604 1,532 1, 385 415 449 832 683 644 955 600 737 622 346 ' Includes "mobile home" and "other," not shown separately. Total i Note.—Series revised. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System. 27 BANK LOANS, INVESTMENTS, AND Revised data show slightly less rapid growth in commercial and industrial loans than previously estimated. Growth slowed significantly in November. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 1,000 -ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 1,000 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 100 100 80 INVESTMENT 80 IN U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 60 60 40 1 1 11 11 1 1 1 i i i 11 I i 1971 1970 1972 1973 1975 1976 1977 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, END OF MONTH SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 1978: Jan. Feb Mar Apr May June July 9 Aug* Sept* Oct » Nov 9 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 435.5 485.7 866.2 870.6 292.0 320.9 37R9 449.0 500.2 496.9 538.9 617.0 611.6 617.0 881.2 887.7 894.1 909.0 921.7 932.2 940.7 9446 952.4 960.9 966.3 625. 1 628.4 637.2 x647..-6 659.7 667.8 675. 1 680.2 687.3 696.8 706.7 55ao 4 .... 63a4 691. 1 721.8 785.1 870.6 110.0 116.2 130.4 156.6 isas 176.2 179. 7 « 201. 4 200.2 • 201. 4 5 203.8 205.8 209.8 212.4 217.9 219.0 220.8 222.8 224.6 227.0 228.9 57.8 60.6 62.6 54.5 51. 1 80. 1 98.0 95.6 35.71 35.95 321 107 1,049 1,298 703 127 62 558 840 558 41 32 13 12 54 83 54 36.34 36.69 36.47 36.80 37.04 37.55 38.00 37.74 37.97 38.26 481 405 344 539 1,227 1, 111 1,286 1, 147 1,068 1,261 32 52 47 43 93 120 143 188 191 221 29.11 31. 17 31.34 3491 36.57 3468 3493 36.14 35.96 36.14 2a78 31.04 30.29 33.61 35.84 3455 3488 35.57 35.10 35.57 28.86 30.98 31.06 3461 36.31 3442 3465 35.95 96.3 95.6 85.7 104.2 116.5 129.9 139.8 1448 14a2 158.0 158.3 158.0 96.5 99.4 96. 1 98.3 97.9 100.2 100.6 97.9 97.2 95.2 90.3 159.6 159.9 160.8 163. 1 164 1 1642 165.0 166.5 167.9 168.9 169.3 36.61 36.93 36.67 36.95 37.26 37.73 38. 19 37.91 38.17 38.43 36.12 36.52 36.34 36.39 36.05 36.63 36.88 36.77 37. 11 37. 15 *3 Data are for end of period. Averages of daily figures. Annual data are for December. 3 Member tank reserves series reflects actual reserve requirement percentages with no adjustment to eliminate the eflect of changes in Regulations D and M. 28 1978 [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted^ except as noted] l All member ban ks Allc ommercial I ;>anks Borrowiiigs (milL<)ans lions of dollars, Investorlents Iteserves 2 3 Total unadju isted) * loans and Total ex- Commer- U.S. GovOther invest- cluding cial and SeaReNonTotal ernment secuTotal ments inter- industrial securities sonal borrowed quired rities bank PorinH 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1977: Nov. Deo i i i i i 1 i i i i i 40 ills i1 iiiii 1974 * During 1974, total loans and investments were increased $0.6 billion due to a bank merger and were reduced $1.5 billion due to liquidation of a large bank. » Loan rectifications reduced these loans by $1.2 billion as of March 31,1976. s Loan reclassifications reduced these loans by $0.2 billion in December 1977. Note.—Commercial bank data revised beginning January 1978. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses External Period Total Internal 1 Credilb market 1unds Total Total Longterm 2 Short-3 term Other Total Purchase of physical assets * Increase in financial assets Discrepancy (sources less uses) 1970™__ 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1043 127.1 161.7 199.8 190.8 143.8 205.0 239.0 58.9 68.6 80.8 83.8 75.7 106.8 124.7 135.3 45. 5 58.5 80.9 115.9 115. 1 37.0 80.3 103.6 40.7 445 58.3 72.7 81.8 37.0 58.2 78.7 32.1 40.6 40.6 37.0 39.1 49.3 48.8 46.2 8.6 3.9 17.6 35.7 42.6 — 12. 3 9.5 32.6 48 14 1 22.7 43.3 33.4 .0 22. 1 249 95.9 119.6 145. 8 185.6 179.0 131.9 1849 212. 3 80.3 86.0 100.3 123.3 1347 99.9 141.2 1646 15.6 33.6 45.6 62.3 444 32.0 43.7 47.8 8.4 7.5 15.9 142 11.8 11.9 20. 1 26.7 1977: I II III IV 244.3 198.6 266.0 247.1 123.8 134.9 145.5 137.3 120.5 63.7 120.6 109.9 75.9 63.7 80.1 95.2 344 35.3 53.5 61.5 41.6 28.5 26.6 33.7 446 -.0 40.5 147 2146 177.3 2346 222. 7 152.5 162.4 175.2 168.0 62. 1 149 59.4 547 2&6 21.3 31.4 244 1978: I II III* 283.9 274. 1 289.4 127.2 1441 15L6 156.7 130.0 137.8 102.2 82.8 80.2 40.3 53.7 545 61.9 29. 1 25.7 545 47.2 57.6 263.3 260.8 272.6 179.8 199.9 194.8 83.5 61.0 77.8 20.6 13.2 16.8 * Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits. 2 Stocks, bonds, and mortgages. 9 Bank loans, commercial paper, finance company loans, bankers* acceptances, and Government loans. * Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars, except as noted] Current Habil ities Curre at assets End of period Total SEC series:2 1970 1971 1972 .... 1973 1974 FTC-FRB series:3 1974 1975 1976 1977_ Cash Notes U.S. governand Invenment actories securi- counts ties receivable Other current assets Total Notes Other and current accounts liabilij»__ ties payable Net working capital Current ratio l 492.3 529.6 599.3 697.8 790.7 50.2 53.3 59.0 66.3 71.1 7.7 11.0 10.6 12.8 12.3 206.1 221. 1 248.2 288.5 322.1 193.3 200.4 225.7 263.9 313.6 35.0 43.8 55.8 66.4 71.7 3049 326.0 375. 6 450.9 530.4 211.3 220. 5 282.9 340.3 402.3 93.6 105.5 92.7 110.7 128. 1 187.4 203.6 223. 7 246.9 260.3 1.615 1.625 1.595 1.548 1.491 734 6 756.3 823. 1 900.1 73.0 80.0 86.8 942 11.3 19.6 26.0 20.9 265.5 272. 1 292.4 325.7 318.9 3147 341.4 375.0 65.9 69.9 76.4 843 451.8 446.9 487. 5 543.2 272, 3 261.2 273. 2 306. 8 179.5 185.7 2142 236.3 282.8 309.5 335.6 357.0 1.626 1.693 1.688 1.657 1977: I II III IV 842.0 856.4 880.3 900.1 80.8 83.1 83.4 942 26.8 22. 1 21.5 20.9 304 1 312. 8 326.9 325.7 352. 1 358.8 367.5 375.0 78.3 79.6 81.0 84 3 502.6 509.5 528.9 543.2 280.2 286.8 297.8 306.8 222.4 222.7 231. 1 236.3 339.5 346.9 351. 4 357.0 1.675 1.681 1.664 1.657 1978: I II . _ 9242 953.6 88.5 90.9 20.9 19.7 338.3 356.8 389.7 399. 1 86.8 87.0 570.4 590.6 317.2 331.4 253.2 259.2 353.8 363.0 1.620 1.615 * Total current assets divided by total current liabilities. 2 Based on data from Statistics of Income, Department of the Treasury. 3 Based on data from Quarterly Financial IteportfQT Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations, Federal Trade Commission. NOTE.—SEC series not available after 1974. See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details regarding the series. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System, Federal Trade Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates stabilized in December following the November upturn. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM 10 10 CORPORATE Aaa BONDS (MOODY'S) 1970 SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] Period U.S. Tre asury seeuri ty yields High-grade Corporate Prime com- Discount rate mercial municipal Aaa Constant inaturities 2 (N.Y. 3-month paper, bonds bills i F.R. (Standard 4-6 3-year 10-year & Poor's)3 (Moody's) months Bank)* 5.72 6. 21 4.071 7.21 4.50 5. 27 4.69 6.95 6.84 7. 041 7.44 6. 45 5. 18 8. 15 7.82 7.56 7.886 7. 83 8.57 6.09 9.87 7.49 7.99 5.838 6.25 8.83 6. 33 6.89 6.77 7.61 4.989 5.50 8.43 6.49 5.35 6.69 7.42 5. 265 8.02 5.46 5. 60 5.56 7.22 7.58 6. 160 6-6 6.59 8.08 5.38 7.30 7.69 6. 063 6-6 8. 19 6. 64 5.48 7.61 7.96 6.448 8.41 6. 79 5.60 6-6H 7.67 8.03 6.80 6.457 8.47 5.51 6H-6H 7.70 8.04 __ 6.319 6.80 5.49 8.47 6H-6H 7.85 8. 15 6.306 5.71 6.86 8.56 6fc-6H 8.07 8.35 7.11 5.97 61/2-7 8.69 6.430 8.30 8.46 7-7 6.707 7.63 8.76 6.13 8.54 8.64 7.074 6. 18 7.91 8.88 7-7^ 8.41 8.33 71/4-7% 7.036 5.98 7.90 8.69 8.42 8.41 7.836 5.93 8.44 8.69 7Ji-8 8.62 8.64 8. 132 5. 95 9.03 8.89 8-8H 8.81 9.04 9K-9/2 8.787 6.03 9.03 10.23 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1977: Nov Dec 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Week ended: 1978: Nov 25_._. Dec 2___. 9-___ 16.... 23..1 3 8.696 9. 166 8.984 8.929 9.237 8.96 9. 16 9. 12 9. 19 8.78 8.85 8.86 8.95 5.99 6. 11 6. 12 6.28 Rate on new issues within period. Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by3 the Treasury Department. Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 30 9.00 9.04 9. 06 9. 12 10.22 10.28 10.32 10.36 9H-9/2 9/2-9/2 9/2-9/2 9/2-9/2 9/2- Prime rate charged by banks 4 5.25 8.03 10.81 7.86 6.84 6.83 !%-!% 7%-7H 7K-8 8-8 8-8 8-8 8-8/2 8H-9 9-9 9-9H 9K-9% 9^-10M 10/2-11/2 Newhome mortgage yields (FHLBB)5 7.60 7.95 8.92 9.01 8.99 9.01 9.07 9.09 9.15 9.18 9.26 9.30 9.37 9.46 9.57 9.70 9.73 9.83 9.86 11-11/2 11H-11H 11/2-11/2 11/2-11/2 ll%- s Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repaymeng at end of 10 years. Bates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices were generally stronger in December than in November. INDEX, DEC 31,1965=50 80 INDEX, DEC 31,1965=50 80 50 - 50 40 40 30 - - 30 1978 1970 PER CENT 20 PERC ENT 20 EARNING S-PRlCEl RATIO C)N COMMON ST OCKS (S& P) 15 - -i « «^*** k 10 5 ^—^ r^^-l i 0 I 1970 I I I I -1971 i I I 1972 \ 1 i 1973 +-~^-1 ^ _x^1 ^ I I 5 i i 1974 I 1975 I i i 1976 i 1 1 1 1977 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION Composite 1972__ 60.29 57.42 43.84 __ _ __ Dec 1978: Jan.... Feb___ . Mar Apr May June July Aug__ Sept ___ Oct Nov Week ended: 1978: Nov 18____ 25____ Dec 2 9— — 16 Industrial Transportation Utility 5446 53.69 51.87 51. 83 49.89 49.41 49.50 51.75 54.49 54.83 54. 61 58.53 58.58 56.40 52.74 65.73 63.08 48.08 50. 52 60. 44 57. 86 55. 62 53.55 53. 45 52.80 52.77 55.48 59. 14 59.63 59.35 64.07 64.23 61.60 57.50 50. 17 37.74 31.89 31. 10 39.57 41.09 39.30 39. 75 39. 15 38.90 38.95 41. 19 44.21 44. 19 44.74 49.45 50. 19 46.70 41.80 38.48 37.69 29. 79 31.50 36.97 40. 92 40.33 40.36 39.06 39.02 39.26 39.69 39.47 39. 41 39.28 40.20 39. 82 39.44 37.88 51.87 53. 17 54. 15 54.21 53.81 56.48 57.96 57.94 59. 22 58.77 40.71 41. 94 42.31 43.62 42. 95 37.52 38.31 38.22 38.48 38. 29 45. 73 1 Average of daily closing prices. 2 Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE. 3 Includes 30 stocks. * Includes 500 stocks. 5 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. ! 1978 I 0 Common stock 5 yields (percent) Standard & Poor's DowEarningsJones composite Dividendprice index industrial ratio ratio Finance average 3 (1941-43= 10) 4 5.50 2.84 109. 20 950. 71 78. 35 7. 12 3.06 107. 43 923. 88 70. 12 11.59 4.47 82.85 759. 37 49.67 9.15 431 802. 49 86. 16 47. 14 8.90 974.92 102. 01 3.77 52.94 462 10.79 98.20 894.63 55.25 5.02 94.28 54. 04 828. 51 5. 11 11.45 93. 82 818. 80 53.85 5. 32 90.25 781. 09 50. 91 5.49 88.98 763. 57 50.60 5.62 12.25 88.82 756. 37 51.44 5.42 92.71 794.66 55. 04 5.20 838. 56 97.41 57.95 5. 19 11.81 97.66 840. 26 58.31 5.25 831. 72 97. 19 57.97 493 103. 92 887. 93 63.28 4.97 103. 86 878. 64 63. 22 5.11 857. 69 60.42 100. 61 5.45 804. 29 94.71 54.95 New York Stock Exel:iange indexes(Dec. 31, 1L965=50) 2 Period 1977: Nov___ I COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Comilion stock p rices l 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 10 54.06 55.31 55. 19 56. 60 56. 25 790. 96 806. 70 803. 72 815. 44 812. 07 93.29 95.38 95. 17 96.96 96.23 5.54 5.38 5.49 5.28 5.39 NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. __ 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBT In the first month of fiscal year 1979 there was a budget deficit of $13.9 billion, compared with a deficit of $14.7 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IILUONS Of DOIURS 500 5001 RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS 400 400 OUTIAYS 300 300 200 200 50 50 SURPLUS (+) OR DEROT (-) 0 0 -50 -50 -100 -100 1970 1972 1971 1973 1974 1975 197$ 1977 1979 1978 FISCAL YEARS COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES, DEPARTA4ENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Period Receipts Fiscal year or period: 1969 1970 1971. 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Transition quarter 1977 2 1978 1979 (estimates): Statement, October 1978 2 Second Concurrent Resolution, Sept. 1978 3 First month: Fiscal year 1978 Fiscal year 1979 __ i Excludes noil-interest-bearing public debt securities held by IMF. 3 Data from Joint Statement of Secretary of the Treasury and Director, Office of Management and Budget, October 27,1978. 32 Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) a2 232.2 2649 281.0 300.0 81.8 357. 8 402.0 1845 196.6 211.4 232.0 247. 1 269.6 326. 1 366.4 947 402.8 450.7 -2.8 -23.0 -23.4 -148 -47 -45. 1 -66.4 -13.0 -45.0 -48.7 452.7 448.7 491.6 487.5 -38.9 -38.8 24. 1 28.7 38.8 42.7 -147 -13.9 187.8 193.7 188.4 2oae Federal debt ( end of period) Tntfll 1 Held by the public 367. 1 382.6 409. 5 437.3 46a4 486.2 5441 631.9 646.4 709. 1 780.4 346. 1 396.9 480.3 498.3 551.8 610.9 707.7 785.3 553.7 617.4 279.5 2849 3043 323.8 34ao a Second Concurrent Resolution on the Budget—Fiscal Year 1979, September 21, 1978. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget, except as iioted. FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first month of fiscal year 1979 budget receipts were $4.6 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $3.9 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 8ILL10NS OF DOLLARS 100 400 400 OUTLAYS 300 300 ** 200 200 100 100 y I I J_ 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 N FISCAL YEARS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] ()utlays Rece ipts Nationa . defense Period Total Fiscal year or period: 1969_ 187.8 1970 193.7 1971 188.4 1972 208.6 1973___ _ _ _ 232.2 1974 264.9 1975 281.0 1976___ _ 300.0 Transition quarter _ 81.8 1977 357.8 1978 * 402.0 1979 (estimates) * ___ _ 452.7 First month: Fiscal year 1978 24.1 Fiscal year 1979 28.7 Indi- Corpovidual ration Other income income taxes taxes Interna- Health and Intional income terest Other affairs security 87.2 90.4 86.2 94.7 103.2 119. 0 122.4 131.6 38.8 157.6 181.0 202.7 36.7 32.8 26.8 32.2 36.2 38.6 40.6 41.4 8.5 549 60.0 68.0 63.9 70.5 75.4 81.7 92.8 107.4 118.0 127.0 34.5 145.2 161. 1 182.0 184.5 196.6 211.4 232.0 247. 1 269.6 326. 1 366.4 94.7 402.8 450.7 491.6 79.4 78.6 75.8 76.6 745 77.8 85.6 89.4 22.3 97.5 105.2 114 5 77.9 77.2 745 75.2 73.3 77.6 85.0 88.0 21. 9 95.7 103. 1 112.0 46 43 41 47 40 5.6 6.9 5.5 2.2 48 5.9 6.3 49.0 56. 1 70. 1 81.4 91.8 106.5 136. 3 160.9 41.5 176.7 189.9 209. 1 15.8 18.3 19.6 20.6 22.8 28. 1 31.0 346 7.2 38. 1 43.9 52. 1 35.7 39.3 41.8 48.8 53.9 51.7 66.5 76.0 21.5 85.7 105. 8 109.6 13.3 15.9 1.4 1.7 9.4 11. 1 38.8 42.7 8.2 9.2 8.0 9.2 .4 .3 148 15. 9 2.9 3.0 12.5 143 1 Data from Joint Statement of Secretary of the Treasury and Director, Office of Management and Budget, October 27,1978. Total Department of Defense, military Total Source: Depaitment of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the third quarter, according to revised estimates, Federal receipts rose $16.9 billion (annual rate) and expenditures rose $16.2 billion, yielding a deficit of $22.8 billion, $0.8 billion less than the second quarter deficit. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 550 150 50 50 SURPLUS *•-„ DEFICIT Y/A k^d ^* k^ B |111illil|1| M _ -50 inn -50 inn j 1970 1971 1973 1972 1974 CALENDAR YEAR5 1<?75 1977 1976 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1978 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Fejderal G<3vernmeiit expen iitures Federal (jrovernm ent receipts Period Subsidies Less: Grantsless Wage Purin-aid Indirect ContriPersonal Corpocurrent accruals chases Trans- to State Net rate business butions tax and Total of goods fer pay- and interest surplus of less for Total nontax profits tax and paid Govern- distax and nontax social inments local receipts accruals ment en- burseservices governaccruals surance terprises ments ments Fiscal year: 1974 271.8 283.5 1975 313.9 1976 365.3 1977 Calendar year: 1974 288.6 286.2 1975 331.4 1976 374.5 1977 Surplus or deficit (-), national income and product accounts 122.6 127. 1 136.9 165. 9 43.7 42.1 51.9 58.8 21.4 22.2 24.2 24.5 84.2 92. 1 100.9 116. 1 278.8 328.7 371.5 412.0 104.6 118.0 126.2 140.7 104.7 134.3 156.5 169.6 41.6 48.4 57.5 66.2 19.8 21.9 25.2 28.4 8.0 5.7 6.2 7.0 -0.2 —.4 .0 .0 -7.0 -45.3 -57.6 -46.7 131. 1 125.4 146.8 169.4 45.9 42.8 54.8 61.3 21.7 23.9 23.4 25.0 89.9 94.2 106.4 118,' 7 299.3 356.8 385.2 422.6 111. 1 123.1 129.9 145.1 117.6 149.1 161.6 172.7 43.9 54.6 61. 1 67.4 20.9 23.2 26.8 29.1 5.3 6.8 5.8 8.3 -.5 .0 .0 .0 -10.7 -70.6 -53.8 -48.1 1977: I 366.6 !!___ 371.4 III_. 374.3 IV._. 385.5 168.3 167.0 167.6 174.8 58.4 61.8 62.0 62.9 244 24.8 25.4 25.6 115.5 117.7 119.3 122.2 403.9 411.7 430.7 444. 1 138.3 142.9 146.8 152.2 168.6 168.2 175.7 178.3 62. 1 65.4 70.9 71.1 28.1 28.8 28.9 30.7 6.7 6.4 8.4 11.8 .0 .0 .0 .0 -37.3 -40.3 -56.4 -58.6 1978: I 396.2 II— .424.8 IIL__ 441.7 176.8 186.7 199.7 59.6 72.6 73.6 26.5 27.9 28.2 133.3 448.8 137.6 448.3 140. 1 464.5 151.5 147.2 154.0 180.2 180.7 188. 8 73.9 75.9 77.5 33.2 34.6 36.3 10.0 10.0 8.0 .0 .0 .2 -52.6 -23.6 -22.8 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget. 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES [1967=100] Con sumer j>rices (uiladjustec D In dustrial producstion (setisonally ad juste d) Period United States Canada Japan France 121. 5 130. 7 143.0 147. 5 117.8 139.6 129. 8 146. 7 137. 1 152. 6 155. 8 167.2 190. 5 183. 1 163. 9 182.0 189. 5 128 135 145 148 139 149 152 153.3 156.7 157.5 158.2 156. 9 158.4 159.3 158. 4 163. 3 163.2 195. 2 195.4 199.5 199.7 200. 3 200.5 199.7 201.8 203.4 203.0 154 152 156 160 155 154 •s/!„ loo 156 156 1971 1972 1973 1974__ 1975__ 1976 1977 109.6 119. 7 129. 8 129. 3 1978: Jan____ Feb-__ Mar___ Apr — May __ June _ _ July *_ Aug "__ Sept p Oct*_ Nov*>_ 138.8 139. 2 140.9 143.2 143. 9 144. 9 146. 1 147. 1 147.7 148.5 149. 5 United United CanKing1 ada Japan France dom States Germany United Kingdom Germany Italy 133.6 138.7 147.7 145. 1 137. 1 149. 1 152.7 157 152 151 152 151 155 157 156 159 157 117. 5 122. 7 134. 6 140. 6 127. 6 143. 5 144. 8 110. 6 113.2 123. 0 120. 0 114. 3 117.4 123. 1 121. 3 125. 3 133. 1 147. 7 161.2 170. 5 181.5 115. 6 121.2 130.3 144.5 160. 1 172. 1 185.9 126.5 132.3 147.9 184.0 205. 8 224.9 243.0 123. 5 131. 1 140.7 160.0 178. 9 196. 1 213.9 112. 7 119. 0 127.2 136. 1 144. 2 150.7 156.6 114.4 121.0 134. 1 159.7 186.8 218. 1 257.6 128.5 137.6 150. 3 174.4 216.5 252. 4 292.4 143.4 148. 0 146.6 143.6 145. 9 144.2 144. 9 143. 1 147. 6 152.5 123. 8 124.5 124.0 128.4 126. 6 128.9 128.6 128. 8 127.4 126.5 187. 2 188. 4 189. 8 191. 5 193.3 195. 3 196.7 197.8 199.3 200.9 194.0 195.3 197.5 197.9 200.7 202.4 205. 4 205.5 205. 2 207.3 209. 0 246. 1 247. 1 249.4 252. 1 253.5 252. 1 253. 1 253.3 256.4 256.8 222. 8 224.4 226.4 228.9 231. 1 232. 8 235.7 237. 1 238.6 240.8 158.9 159.7 160.3 160. 7 161. 1 161. 5 161. 5 161.0 160.6 160.6 161. 1 274.6 277.4 280. 3 283.3 286.4 288.8 291.0 292. 3 296. 2 299.4 301.4 304.4 306.2 308. 1 312.6 314.4 316.8 318.2 320.3 321. 6 323. 1 325. 3 Italy Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, Bureau of International Economic Policy and Research, Office of International Economic Research, in International Economic Indicators. i Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Mercllandise e xports Period Domesti e Total domesFood, tic and foreign Total ! 2 beverages, exand toports bacco Merc landise i mports Ge rieral im ports exports Food, Crude Crude bever- matemate- Manufac2 rials ages, rials tured Total and toand and goods bacco fuels fuels F.a.s. valu e 5 Monthly average : 1973 _ __ 1974 1974 1975 1976 1977 _ 1977: Oct Nov_-_ Dec 1978: Jan Feb____ Mar___ Apr-__ May___ June___ July___ Aug__ Sept___ Oct Manufactured goods Total (c.i.f. value) * Mer<Aandise trade balance ExExports (f.a.s.) ports Exports (f.a.s.) less (f.a.s.) less imless imports imports (cusports (c.i.f.) toms (f.a.s.) value) ft r\ r, \ Custon is value 5,902 8, 159 5,811 8,045 1,078 1,269 895 1,317 3, 728 5,294 5, 790 8,416 8, 159 8, 966 9,596 10, 096 9, 357 9,478 10, 999 10, 014 9, 922 10, 912 11, 635 11,754 12, 126 11, 793 12, 469 13, 429 13, Oil 8, 045 8,842 9,456 9,915 1,269 1, 399 1,436 1, 332 1, 023 1, 135 1,472 1,281 1,531 1,604 1,693 1,897 1,963 1,844 2,008 1,851 1,798 1,317 1,266 1, 341 1,548 1,466 1,500 1,493 1,402 1,282 1,483 1,699 1, 781 1, 930 1, 636 1,758 1,881 1,971 5,294 5,913 6,437 6, 681 6,277 6,382 7,463 6,739 6,674 7, 145 7,562 7,548 7, 751 7,859 8,232 8,720 8,735 8, 354 8,048 10, 084 12, 307 12, 587 12, 407 13, 474 12, 381 14, 440 13, 699 14, 496 13, 992 13, 723 14, 779 14, 090 15, 120 15, 138 1 Total excludes Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program. 2 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. 3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. 4 C.i.f. (cost, insurance, and freight) import value at first port of entry in the United States. Data for 1973 are estimates. 3 770 892 F.a.s. 892 827 991 1, 186 998 962 1,442 1,276 1, 363 1,370 1,370 1, 313 1, 135 1,323 1,141 1, 298 1,423 1, 120 2,653 value 5 2, 672 2,718 3,457 4,463 4,680 4,771 3,900 3, 912 4, 362 3,928 4, 139 4,461 4, 221 4, 147 4,414 4,666 4,597 3,750 4,684 6,131 9,000 4, 602 4,257 5,398 6,379 6,767 6,140 7,556 7,264 8,464 8,043 8,636 8,247 8, 020 8,864 8,195 8,748 8,826 9,000 8,654 10, 825 13, 130 13, 432 13, 203 14, 370 13, 157 15, 381 14, 570 15, 436 14, 894 14, 607 15, 748 15, 030 16, 144 16, 068 112 -257 -195 —257 —195 853 918 —581 —488 —2, 297 —2, 211 -3,314 -3,230 -3, Oil -2, 929 -2, 581 -2,475 -2,455 -2, 367 -4, 649 -4, 518 -2,915 -2,787 -2,983 -2,861 -2, 358 -2,238 -1, 702 -1,597 -3,082 -2, 987 -1,706 -1, 621 -1, 824 -1,691 -2, 196 -2, 128 —229 -841 —841 312 —1, 229 —3, 034 -4, 074 -3, 725 -3,371 -3, 143 -5,459 -3, 658 -3, 801 -3, 141 -2,482 -3, 956 -2, 561 -2,715 -3,058 5 F.a.s. (free alongside ship) value basis: at U.S. port of exportation for exports and at foreign port of exportation for imports. NOTE.—Data beginning 1975 not strictly comparable with earlier data. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the third quarter, the current account deficit widened to $3.8 billion from $3.1 billion in the second quarter. The merchandise trade deficit rose marginally, from $7.8 billion to $8.0 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS Of DOLLARS -10 1977 1970. 1978 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted] Invcjstment IEicome * M erehandise 1 2 Period 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976___. 1977 Imports Exports Net hnl. Ucl.1— ance 43, 319 -45,579 -2,260 49, 381 -55,797 -6,416 71, 410 -70,499 911 98, 306 -103,649 -5,343 9,047 107, 088 -98,041 114, 694 -124,047 -9,353 120, 576 -151,706 -31, 130 -36, 502 -7,025 -37,263 -6,634 -38,277 -7,268 -39,664 -10,203 Receipts Payments 12, 688 -5,436 14, 694 -6,544 21, 697 -9,655 27, 541 -12,084 25, 359 - 12, 564 29, 244 -13,311 32, 100 -14,593 -3, 197 -3,601 -3,610 -4, 185 1977:1--!!___ III__ IV.. 29, 477 30, 629 31, 009 29, 461 1978: !___ II~_ IIL. 30, 664 -41, 865 -11,201 9,381 -4, 503 35, 067 -42, 869 -7,802 10, 003 -5,420 36, 930 -44,975 -8,045 9,946 -5, 396 1 Excludes military grants. 2 Adjusted from Census data 3 7,796 8,088 8,220 7,997 for differences in timing and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. 36 Net JLl Cl» Net military transactions Nettravel and transportation receipts Other services, net 8 Balance on goods and serv-3 ices Remittances, pensions, and other unilateral transfers 1 Balance on current account 7,252 8,150 12, 042 15, 457 12, 795 15, 933 17, 507 — 2,893 -3,621 -2,287 -2,080 -876 312 1,334 -2, 315 -3,028 -3,086 -3, 105 -2,522 -2,245 -3,044 4,599 4,487 4,610 3,812 568 295 467 5 -907 -759 -677 -701 1,136 1,171 1,260 1, 183 4,878 4,583 4,550 210 592 177 -823 -626 -802 1,361 -5,576 -1,282 -6, 858 1,468 -1,785 -1,317 -3, 102 1,563 -2,557 -1,267 -3,824 2,294 2,509 2,789 -2, 125 3,185 10, 766 8,905 3,975 4,617 23, 060 4,714 9,361 4,749 -10,585 -1,630 -1,440 -1,609 -5,903 -3,701 -1,407 -3,854 -5,979 -3,881 6,885 -7, 186 1,719 -4, 615 18, 445 -5,022 4,339 -4, 708-15,292 -1,126 -1,243 -1,277 -1,064 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. -2, 756 -2, 683 -2, 886 -6,967 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued After falling by $5.7 billion in ihe second quarter, foreign official assets in the U.S. rose by $4.9 billion in the third quarter. The accumulation of U.S. private assets abroad accelerated from $5.3 billion in the second quarter to $9.7 billion in the third quarter. This rise was partially offset by an increase in the accumulation of other foreign assets in the U.S. from $6.1 billion in the second quarter to $9.7 billion in the third quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 30 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 30 I SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 20 20 CHANGE IN FOREIGN ASSETS IN THE U.S., NET 10 10 -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 1978 1970 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC. ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] U.S. assets abroad, tiet [incre ase/capita 1 outflow ( — )] Fore ign assets in the U. S., net [inci*ease/capit al inflow ( + ) ] * Foreigni official assets Period Total Other U.S. U.S. U.S. official private2 reserve Govern- assets assets 1 2 ment assets 26, 895 10, 705 6,299 10, 981 6,907 18, 073 37, 124 27, 405 -3,907 10, 322 10, 991 5, 145 12, 364 10, 257 23, 696 5,259 8,643 13, 080 18, 897 35, 480 13, 746 — 949 3 2,490 -388 6 -795 -11,214 14, 064 151 — 1, 098 -5,668 14, 251 -838 -13,862 20, 065 5,451 7,884 8,246 15, 543 4,946 -2, 962 7,467 6, 180 7,914 6,005 4,522 15, 153 - 12, 475 2,348 - 14, 461 32 -22,823 209 -34,712 - 1, 434 -39,444 -607 -50,608 -2,530 - 34, 650 -231 1977: I II III IV - 1, 334 - 12, 003 — 6,615 -14,700 246 — 896 -14,386 18, 095 15, 760 14, 956 329 -1,176 -5, 287 406 -5, 685 -5, 373 180 -1,494 -9, 692 14, 612 4, 904 4,554 1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDR), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the IMF. 2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. Total Assets of Other foreign foreign assets official reserve agencies -1,884 - 12, 939 22, 987 -1,568 - 12, 925 21, 696 -2,644 -20,388 18, 663 366 33, 643 34, 677 -3,470 — 35,368 15, 550 -4,213 -43,865 36, 969 -3,679 -30,740 50, 869 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978: I -15,036 II -6, 134 III *>__ -11,006 Total 2,336 6,090 9,708 Stati stieal discre pancy Allocations of Total special (sum of drawing the rights items (SDR) with sign reversed) 717 -9,822 710 -1,966 -2,725 -1,684 5,449 9,300 -927 Of which : Seasonal adjustment discrepancy U.S. official reserve assets, net 1 (unadjusted, end of period) 12, 167 13, 151 14, 378 15, 883 16, 226 18, 747 19, 312 1,600 131 19, 622 -179 19, -4, 751 -2,229 18, 1,602 2,276 19, 120 156 988 312 160 19, 192 3,798 -1 18, 864 8,830 218 -2, 411 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE POSTAGE AND FEES PAID U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFIC 373 DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS WASHINGTON. D.C. 2O4O2 OFFICIAL BUSINESS First-Class Mail Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING pagc Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Productivity and Related Data, Private Business Economy 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates. Business Sales and Inventories-—Total and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and New Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices Changes in Producer Prices Changes in Consumer Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock Private Liquid Asset Holdings—Nonfinancial Investors Consumer Instalment Credit Bank Loans, Investments, and Reserves Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Budge Receipts and Outlays and Debt Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402 Price $1.30 (single copy). Subscription price: $15.00 per year; $3.75 additional for foreign mailing. 38 U.S. GOVERNMENTPRINTING OFFICE : 1978 O—36-805