Full text of Economic Indicators : December 1949
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81st Congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators 1949 HH %$r |Hb ^&T Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council of Economic Advisers STATES OOVERF NT PRINTI NG OFFICE 3HINGTON : 1949 JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT (Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming, Chairman EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey, Vice Chairman FRANCIS J. M^'ERS, Pennsylvania WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas JOHN J. SPAP-&MAN, Alabama WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois FRANK BUCHANAN, Pennsylvania ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania ARTHUR ^ WATKINS, Utah CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts THEODORE J. KEEPS, Staff Director GROVER W. ENSLEY, Associate Staff Director JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk [PUBLIC LAW 120 — 81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237 — IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S. J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Sen*** an^ House of &fy*sentatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Committee on the Economic Report be authorize^ to issue a mont^y lublication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Mender of Congress; the Sectary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Represe^tati ves ; two copies to the ^Varies of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint mittee on the Economic Report; an and te the -e^ired number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository Committee libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documt^ ^ auth0rized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. To the Members of Congress: _ From the time the Joint Committee on tn*7conolll];c Report was established its members realized that one of its basic needs was a concise and meaningful pictui^ current economic trends and developments. Fortunately, the joint committee toun \onomic Indicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiled monthly by the Council of Economic Advisers, admiraD y i t^s neecj While this material was prepared originally for the use of the President, the Council, and other official ^ executive officeS5 t h e Council made it available to the joint Other Members of Congress also expresse a ^ ^ ^^^ aj3]e to o k ta j n a quick picture of current economic facts without having to go through voluminous an j a jj 2e( j d ocuments> in addition businessmen, farm leaders, labor organizations, and representatives of ^^f^^iio indicated their desire for this information. Accordingly, the joint committee provided * e .^ss and the public with a limited number of copies of Economic Indicators as a committee print pen ing authorizing the publication on a more permanent basis. As is indicated above such legislation has now been pass ^ committee will issue the report on a regular monthly Comments or suggestions with respect to pos Digitized for 11 FRASER * ^^ ^ ^.^ presentat]on w jj] aiwavs be welcome. 'irman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report. Letter of Transmitted Hon. JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report, United States Congress, Washington, D. C. DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the Joint Committee on the Economic Report in making Economic Indicators available to the Congress as a whole and to the general public, in accordance with Public Law 120, Eightyfirst Congress. In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has found it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts showing current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a better position to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the improvement and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services. In this undertaking the Council has the full cooperation of the several agencies of the Federal Government that collect statistical material. In many cases these agencies supply advance estimates for use in Economic Indicators. While the charts are drawn through the courtesy of the Graphics Unit in the Office of the Secretary of Commerce, the Council takes complete responsibility for the graphic presentation. This material has proven useful to the President, the Council, the executive departments, and the Congress. Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and consumer organizations with whom we regularly consult. We believe that the Congress is performing a service of real value by making this material available. Sincerely yours, Acting Chairman. ' /' 111 Contents THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET The Nation's Economic Budget Page 1 PRICES Consumers' Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers Stock Prices 2 3 4 5 EMPLOYMENT Labor Force Nonagricultural Employment—Selected Industries Average Weekly Hours—Selected Industries Work Stoppages 6 7 8 9 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Weekly Production—Selected Indicators Production of Selected Durable Manufactures Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures New Construction New Housing Starts Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment New Corporate Security Issues Inventories and Sales Merchandise Exports and Imports 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 PURCHASING POWER National Income Corporate Profits Personal Income Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving Per Capita Income Average Hourly Earnings—Selected Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Selected Industries Farm Income , Personal Consumption Expenditures Consumer Credit MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE Bank Loans and Investments Money Supply Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET Economic activity declined slightly from the 2nd to the 3rd quarter, both in dollars and in real terms. Consumer income dropped moderately but expenditures remained fairly stable. 1949 2nd Ounrtpr i *, r ^ , fc.i v x w u i i * > » TOTAL (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)^ EXCESS OF EXPFNDITURES (-), RECEIPTS (-f) (Gross National Product ) m 59 6 CONSUMERS Transfer payments^ 1 wmmmm^mmmmmmmwmwLwmmmmmmmm ••:>:•:•:•:•:•:•:•:•.-:•:':•:•:•:•:•••:•:•:<•:•:•:-••:•<:•:•<:•.<:•<<:•.::<•>•••••••.•.•.•.•.•.•. .•.•:•:•:•:•:•:•:•:•••:•:•:<•:<•:•:•:•••:••••••.•••<••:-• •<^-'-:- .^•:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:---:-\-:-i:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:^ ) + , •...•..:.-.-..:...-.-::;::::i :!:;:;:;:;:;:;:;:; '• : ' : ' ::::::: ' :;X ' CONSUMER SAVING l78 9 ' BUSINESS 28.5 EXCESS OF INVESTMENT • INTERNATIONAL EXCESS OF INVESTMENT GOVERNMENT ( Federal, state and local ) I l l l l l l l l l l l l l l 558 jj CASH DEFICIT ^"Transfer payments 1949, TOTAL m 3rd- Quarter ( B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS) (Gross National Product) " CONSUMERS Transfer payments!^ m '»'•• 178 n CON- SUMER SAVING ' BUSINESS =;:;;;;*;:;:*;; 2, , ::;::::::::: •:•:•:• 27.4 : ::>: : :|:::':; r: in : jllli, EXCESS OF INVESTMENT INTERNATIONAL 1: EXCESS OF RECEIPTS B GOVERNMENT ( Federal, state and local) 57.3 % "—" Li j^ANNU M. R A T E S , -EA,OHAULY ADJtoiED. SOURCE: SEE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JULY 1949, APPENDIX A. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S CASH DEFICIT PRICES CONSUMERS' PRICES Since February, the consumers' price index has fluctuated within a narrow range. A drop of nearly 4 points in the index of food prices in October brought the total index down about 2/3 of I percent. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE 1940 1941 PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1948 1947 1949 •ALSO INCLUDES HOUSEFURNISHINGS, FUEL, ELECTRICITY, REFRIGERATION, AND MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES, NOT SHOWN ON CHART. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. [1935-39=100] Period 1939 monthly average 1940 monthly average _ 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average.1946 monthly average 1947 monthlv average 1948 monthly average 1948: October November December 1949: January February March April May__ June July August . September _ _ _ _ _ _ October. _ _ All items 99 4 100. 2 105. 2 116. 5 123. 6 125. 5 128. 4 139. 3 159. 2 171. 2 173. 6 172. 2 171. 4 170. 9 169. 0 169. 5 169. 7 169. 2 169. 6 168. 5 168. 8 169. 6 168. 5 Food 95 2 96. 6 105. 5 123. 9 138. 0 136. 1 139. 1 159. 6 193. 8 210. 2 211. 5 207. 5 205. 0 204. 8 199 7 201. 6 202. 8 202. 4 204. 3 201. 7 202. 6 204. 2 200. 6 NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities, Source: Department of Labor. Apparel 100 5 101. 7 106. 3 124. 2 129. 7 138. 8 145. 9 160. 2 185. 8 198. 0 201. 6 201.4 200. 4 196. 5 195 1 193. 9 192. 5 191. 3 190. 3 188. 5 187. 4 187. 2 186. 8 Rent 104 3 104. 6 106. 2 108. 5 108. 0 108. 2 108. 3 108. 6 111. 2 117. 4 118. 7 118. 8 119. 5 119. 7 119. 9 120. 1 120. 3 120. 4 120. 6 120. 7 120. 8 121. 2 121. 5 Fuel, electricity, and refrigeration House furnishings 99.0 99. 7 102. 2 105. 4 107. 7 109. 8 110. 3 112. 4 121. 1 133. 9 137. 8 137. 9 137. 8 138. 2 138. 8 138. 9 137. 4 135. 4 135. 6 135. 6 135. 8 137. 0 138. 4 101. 3 100.5 107. 3 122. 2 125. 6 136. 4 145. 8 159. 2 184.4 195. 8 198. 8 198. 7 198. 6 196. 5 195. 6 193.8 191. 9 189. 5 187. 3 186. 8 184. 8 185. 6 185. 2 Miscellaneous 100.7 101. 1 104.0 110. 9 115. 8 121.3 124. 1 128.8 139.9 149. 9 153.7 153. 9 154. 0 154. 1 154. 1 154.4 154. 6 154. 5 154. 2 154. 3 154. 8 155. 2 155. 2 WHOLESALE PRICES Wholesale prices were at a lower level during November because of a drop in farm prices and foods. Industrial prices maintained the overall stability that began at the end of June. PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE 220 220 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. [1926=100] 1941 monthlv average 1942 monthly average 1946 monthly average June 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948- October « November December 1949: January __ _ _ February .. March April _~ May June July - --August September October November * Week ended: October 25 November 1 8 15 22 29 1 _ 87. 3 98. 8 121. 1 112. 9 152. 1 165. 1 165.4 164. 0 162.4 160. 6 158. 1 158.4 156. 9 155. 7 154. 5 153.5 152. 9 153. 7 152. 2 151. 4 82. 4 105. 9 148. 9 140. 1 181. 2 188. 3 183. 5 180. 8 177. 3 172. 5 168. 3 171.5 170. 5 171. 2 168. 8 166.2 162. 3 163. 1 159. 6 155. 9 82. 7 99.6 130. 7 112. 9 168. 7 179. 1 178. 2 174 3 170.2 165.8 161.5 162. 9 162. 9 163. 8 162.4 161. 3 160. 6 162.0 159. 6 158. 2 Other than farm products and foods 89.0 95. 5 109. 5 105.6 135. 2 151.0 153.4 153.6 153. 1 152. 9 151.8 150.7 148. 9 146.8 145. 6 145.0 145.0 145. 3 145. 0 145.0 152. 5 151. 4 151. 5 151. 4 151. 5 151. 4 158. 5 156. 3 156. 7 156. 5 156. 8 155. 3 161. 7 158. 7 159.3 159. 6 159. 5 157. 9 144. 8 144. 6 144. 8 144. 8 145. 0 145. 1 All commodities Period - » . - --- -- - - _ _ ~_ - _~ - _______ Estimate based on change in weekly index. Source: Department of Labor. Farm products Foods PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Farm prices decreased again from October to November with substantial drops in prices of hogs, soybeans, corn and eggs, but a sharp recovery in truck crops. The parity ratio reached 100, lower than at any time since December 1941, PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE 350 PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE 350 PRICES RECEIVED 300 250 PRICES PAID (INCL, INTEREST, TAXES} 200 PARITY RATIO* 100 I 1939 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 I I 1 - 1 -1 » I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I J ' F ' M A ' M J J ' A S ' O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N O 1947 1948 *- RATIO OF PRICES RECEIVED TO PRICES PAID, INTEREST, AND TAXES. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Prices paid by Prices (includ8 received l farmers ing interest Parity ratio by farmers and taxes)2 Period 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948: October November December1949: January February March April May June July August September October November 1 August 1909-July 8 1910-14= 100. 1 4 .._ _._ . _ 95 124 159 192 195 202 233 278 287 277 271 268 124 132 150 162 169 172 193 231 249 249 247 247 77 94 106 119 116 117 121 120 115 111 109 108 268 258 261 260 256 252 249 245 249 243 239 248 245 246 246 245 245 244 243 242 240 240 108 105 106 106 104 103 102 101 103 101 100 1914=100. Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, and taxes. Source: Department of Agriculture. In STOCK PRICES Despite periods of buoyancy of the stock market during November, prices at 1h,e end of the month were close to those at the end of October. Utilities stock made the best showing. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 AVERAGE 175 175 WEEKLY AVERAGE WEEKLY AVERAGE INDUSTRIALS ^rj n? RAILROADS .-/ v ; UTILITIES **• •. •* 1939 4 0 41 4 2 4 3 4 4 4 5 4 6 4 7 4 8 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S SOURCE: STANDARD AND POOR'S CORPORATION. [1935-39 = 100] Combined index 1 Period Weekly average: 1939 1942 1946 1948 1948: October. November December 1949: January February March _ April MayJune July August September October November __ _ Week ended: November 2 9 16 23 30 _ _ _ Railroads Industrials 94. 2 69 4 139. 9 124 4 127 8 120. 4 119. 4 121. 0 117. 2 118. 0 118. 5 117. 7 112. 0 117. 8 121. 9 123. 8 127. 3 129. 1 94. 8 71 3 143. 4 130. 6 134. 3 126. 4 125. 5 127. 3 122. 7 123. 7 124. 2 123. 4 117. 0 123. 4 128. 2 130. 3 134. 4 136. 5 130. 129. 127. 129. 128 138. 136. 134. 137. 135. 3 4 7 7 6 0 8 7 1 7 Utilities 74. 7 66. 1 143. 0 114. 7 120. 9 108. 8 105. 8 105. 9 99. 6 97. 4 97. 1 95. 8 88.4 90. 6 94. 6 95. 1 97. 6 96.2 98. 6 61. 3 120.2 96. 2 97.4 94.2 92. 9 94. 2 94. 4 95. 3 96. 1 95.3 93. 0 95.4 98. 5 100.0 101. 2 102. 6 96. 9 96. 9 95. 6 96. 3 95. 5 102. 1 102. 4 102. 3 103. 1 103. 0 1 Combined index prior to June 23, 1948. was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials, 20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads, and 31 utilities. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 99186—49 2 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis O N D EMPLOYMENT LABOR FORCE The ending1 of work stoppages combined with seasonal improvement caused"•nonagriculturaremployment to increase in November, Agricultural employment rose contraseasanaL Unemployment declined slightly^ MILLIONS OF PERSONS MILLIONS OF PERSONS 70 70 UNEMPLOYMENT P NONAGRICULTURAL j EMPLOYMENT ., . . . i I r UNEMPLOYMENT— MAGNIFIED S C A L E 1939 1944 1946 n FT 1947 1948 MONTHLY AVERAGE SOURCE : DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. [Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over] Period 1939 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948: October . November December 1949: January February March _ April _ May June July August September __ _ October November _ _ _ _ Total labor force, including armed forces 55, 600 65, 890 60, 820 61, 608 62, 748 63, 166 63, 138 62, 828 61, 546 61, 896 62, 305 62, 327 63, 452 64, 8(36 65, 278 65, 105 64, 222 64, 021 64, 363 Civilian employment 1 Total 45, 750 53, 960 55, 250 58, 027 59, 378 60, 134 59, 893 59, 434 57, 414 57, 168 57, 647 57, 819 58, 694 59, 619 59, 720 59, 947 59,411 59, 001 59, 518 In non* agricultural industries 36, 140 45, 010 46, 930 49, 761 51, 405 51,506 51, 932 52, 059 50, 651 50, 374 50, 254 49, 999 49, 720 49, 924 50, 073 51,441 51, 254 51, 290 51, 640 In agriculture 9,610 8, 950 8, 320 8, 266 7,973 8,627 7,961 7,375 6, 763 6, 993 7,393 7,820 8,974 9, 696 9,647 8,507 8, 158 7, 710 7, 878 Armed forces 370 11,260 3,300 1,440 1,307 1,391 1,414 1,453 1,468 1, 508 1,491 1,492 1,469 1,468 1,463 1,468 1, 459 1, 445 1, 436 Unemployment 9,480 670 2,270 2, 142 2,064 1,642 1,831 1,941 2, 664 3, 221 3, 167 3,016 3,289 3, 778 4,095 3,689 3,351 3,576 3,409 1 Includes part-time workers and those who had jobs but were not at work for such reasons as vacation, illness, bad weather, temporary lay-off, and industrial disputes. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. N<DNAGRICULTURAL LO1 - INDUSTRIES Emp>!oyment in durable goods manufacturing, transported[ion, anci mining dropped sharply in October as a result of the steel and coal labor disputes and sseasona factors. Trade employment increased sea; sonally. Most other industries showed little chang e. MILL 10 MS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS 9.0 MILLI ONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS 8.0 NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING DURABLE MANUFACTURING I947X 8.5 '3r^^^^^^" < 7.5 7.5 ^\ ^^^__ T 8 0 6.5 IS47 ^^?^^^^"" ^ mm \ 6.0 7.0 0 "~ ! 1 J F 1 M 1 A 1 I M J J 1 A 1 S 1 1 O N 0 ~ ~ D 3.0 I J 1 F I M 1 A I M i J 1 J ! A 1 S 1 O 1 N ""~ D 10.5 TRADE CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION 2.5 / t 10.0 •^^^^^^^^"^^SSg^ I ^ P l 2.0 1.5 ^ L^^~*T******''1"**'""'^ ' ^\ < ^~"~°^'-^ ,^^^" ~~~~ """"""-- ^^-'^' 9.5 -^^^^^^ 1947 9.0 '' ___ 1948 ~r^"'~ 1947 1.0 0 8.5 ~~ J 1 1 F 1 M 1 A ! 1 M J J 1 A 1 S . 1 O 1 N f 0 J D 1 F ! M ! A I M 1 J SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR ! J ! A 1 S O 1 1 N O COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers !] Manufacturing Period Total 1939 monthly average- _ _ _ _ 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average. _ _ 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average, _ _ _ _ _ _ 1948: September _ _ October November _ _ December 1949: January February _ ___ March Aoril _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Mav June July 3 August „ 3 September 3 October _ _ _ _ _ ___ _ _ _ 10, 078 17, 381 14, 461 15, 247 15, 286 15, 617 15,514 15, 368 15, 174 14, 782 14, 649 14, 475 14, 177 13, 877 13, 885 13, 757 14, 115 14, 307 13 984 Durable goods (2) (22) () 8,373 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 315 360 393 352 258 044 923 819 656 441 396 255 305 413 082 Contract Nondur- construction able goods (2) (22) () 6, 874 6, 970 7, 257 7, 121 7, 016 6, 916 6, 738 6, 726 6, 656 6, 521 6, 430 6, 4S9 6, 502 6, 810 6, 894 6, 902 1, 150 1, 567 1, 661 .1, 982 2, 165 2, 369 2, 334 2, 287 2, 200 2, 016 1, 926 1, 947 2, 036 2, 137 2, 205 2, 277 2, 340 2, 342 2, 321 Trade 6, 705 7, 322 8, 815 9. 196 9, 491 9, 522 9, 654 9, 807 10, 273 9, 38S 9, 292 9, 310 9, 478 9, 342 9, 327 9, 220 0, 21 S 9, 412 9, 510 Finance and service 4, 610 5, 187 5, 994 6,427 6, 515 6, 574 6, 531 6, 503 6,481 6, 454 6, 447 6, 469 6, 525 6, 567 6, 603 6, 031 6, 619 6, 610 6, 567 Government Transportation and (Federal, public State, local) utilities 3, 987 6, 049 5, 607 5, 454 5,613 5, 668 5, 694 5, 685 5, 994 5, 764 5, 737 5, 761 5, 775 5, 813 5, 772 5, 738 5, 763 5, 893 5, 866 2, 912 3, 619 4, 023 4, 122 4, 151 4, 189 4, 188 4, 166 4, 158 4, 054 4, 024 3, 975 3,991 4, 021 4,030 4,007 3, 994 3, 964 3, 874 Mining 845 917 852 943 981 1,007 1,000 999 1,002 991 986 981 984 974 970 943 957 948 583 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary w r orkers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 6) which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. 2 Not available. 3 Preliminary estimate. Source: Department of Labor. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES Hours of work averaged 39.8 in durable goods manufacturing and 39.5 in nondurables in October, according to preliminary estimates. Both averages were above the levels of spring and summer. HOUF*S PER WEEK HOURS PER WEEK DURABLE MANUFACTURING NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING 42 42 40 —x^l^^SA/vy ^^ 38 36 34 34 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1947 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1948 1 1 I 1 1 1 i II 1 1 V ^ 1 1 1 M 0 I960 1949 I 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 M 1947 BUILDING CONSTRUCTION 1 1 1 i 1 1 i i 1 1 1 1 i i 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 i ii 1948 1949 1950 RETAIL TRADE -GENERAL MERCHANDISE 42 42 40 40 38 38 * k/-\ 36 .J\f r-A/k^^ ^v -^*—' 36 ^1 34 34 0 v^ 38 36 0 \^rA 40 i ii ii 1 iiiii i i i i i 1 i i t ii 1947 i 111i111 111 1948 1949 i i i l i 1 i i i iI I960 0. rf;,,,i i i i i i 1 it i ii i tti i 1 i i i ii i i i i i 1 i i i ii 1947 1948 1949 1950 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Hours per week, selected industries 1 ] Manufacturing Period 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948' September October November December 1949" January February _ March April Mav June Julv 3 August September October*5 1 2 3 Total _ __ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ 3 _ _ __ For production and related workers. Not available. Preliminary estimate. Source: Department of Labor. 37. 7 44. 9 40.4 40.4 40. 1 39.8 40.0 39.8 40. 1 39. 5 39.4 39. 1 38.4 38. 6 38.8 38.8 39. 1 39.6 39. 7 Durable goods (2) (22) () 40. 6 40. 5 40. 0 40. 7 40. 4 40. 7 40. 1 39. 9 39. 5 39.0 39.0 39. 2 38.8 39.2 39.7 39. 8 Retail trade, Building me Nondurable construction general chandise goods (22) (2) () 40. 1 39. 6 39. 6 39. 1 39. 2 39. 3 38. 7 38. 8 38. 6 37. 6 38. 1 38. 5 38.7 38. 9 39. 5 39. 5 (22) (2) (2) () (2) (22) () (2) (2) 37.3 37.6 37. 3 36.4 37.8 37.0 36.5 36. 1 36.4 37. 2 37. 1 37. 1 37.3 36.4 36. 3 36.6 36.3 36. 0 35.8 37. 5 36. 5 36. 3 36. 1 36. 6 36.3 36.8 37. 2 37.2 36. 4 WORK STOPPAGES Because of steel and coal work stoppages, time lost from labor disputes jumped in October to the highest level since February 1946. MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE I 5 15 1947 1949 1948 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. Or ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S Man-days idle during period Period Monthly average (thousands) 1939 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1948: September October November December 1949: January l l . __ February March * April » May * June 1 July i._ 1 August 1 September October 1 1 Preliminary estimate. 1,484 1,921 349 1, 125 727 3,169 9,667 2,883 2,842 2, 540 2, 060 1,910 713 800 650 3,600 1,800 3,200 4,600 2,100 2,000 6,350 19, 000 Source: Department of Labor. Workers involved in stoppages Beginning Percent of in estimated period working time (thousands) 0. 28 . 32 .05 . 15 .09 . 47 1.43 . 41 .37 .33 . 27 . 26 .09 . 11 . 10 .46 .25 .45 . 61 .31 . 26 . 88 2. 70 1,171 2,363 840 1,981 2, 116 3,467 4, 600 2, 170 1,960 158 110 111 40 70 80 500 175 250 575 110 150 510 600 In effect during month (thousands) 267 194 189 93 110 120 540 225 320 660 225 250 610 1,000 Number of stoppages Beginning in period 2, 613 4,288 2, 968 3,752 4, 956 4,750 4,985 3,693 3,419 299 256 216 144 225 225 275 400 450 375 300 375 275 250 In effect during month 553 468 388 283 400 350 400 500 600 550 525 550 475 425 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY JUi Industrial production dropped about 5 percent in October as a result of steel and coal labor disputes. Following resumption of these activities,, production increased about 3 percent in November. During both of ttiese months the nondurable rate was the highest since the peak a year ago. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE Points in Total index 250 - 250 200 200 150 150 100 50 J A S O N D J F SOURCE: BOARD OF G O V E R N O R S OF THE F E u E R A L RESERVE S Y S T E M M A M J J A S O Points in total index, 1935-39 average for total =100 Indexes, 1935-39=100 Manufactures Total industrial Nondura- Minerals production Total Durable goods ble goods 1935-39 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 month! v average 1946 monthlv average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948- October November December 1949: Januarv _ __ February. _ _ March AprilMav June _ July August. September October i _ November '_.. 1 10 _ _ _ .__ Preliminary estimate. 100 239 203 170 187 192 195 195 192 191 189 184 179 174 169 161 170 174 i (m 17! D COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S [3935-39=100, seasonally adjusted] Period N 100 258 214 177 194 198 202 201 199 198 196 193 184 179 176 168 177 184 175 178 100 3GO 274 192 220 225 231 229 231 227 225 223 212 201 104 185 192 199 174 181 Source; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Syst-ern. 100 176 166 165 172 177 179 178 173 175 173 168 162 101 161 154 165 172 1 76 176 100 132 137 134 149 155 158 161 156 149 149 136 148 145 133 123 129 119 114 1 35 Manufactures Durable goods 38 136 104 73 83 85 87 87 87 86 85 84 81 76 74 70 73 75 67 69 Nondura- Minerals ble goods 47 83 78 77 81 83 84 83 81 82 81 79 76 75 75 72 77 81 82 82 15 20 21 21 23 24 24 25 24 23 23 21 23 22 20 19 20 18 17 20 WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORS A f t e r being at almost .a standstill in October and early November because of labor disputes, steel and bituminous coal output increased sharply during the last of November. Electric power production moved upward. The number of cars and trucks being assembled dropped further, chiefly because of model changeovers. BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS 7.0 MILLIONS OF TONS 3 ELECTRIC POWER J F M A M J J A S O N D MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS 3.0 BITUMINOUS COAL F M A M J SOURCES: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS. Steel (thousands of net tons) Period Weekly average 1947 1948 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Electric power, Bituminous coal by utilities (thousands of (millions of kilowatt-hours) short tons) * Cars and trucks (number) 1, 637 1 700 4, 821 5, 300 2,058 1, 948 90, 860 100, 670 27 Dec. 4 11 ], 783 1, 792 1, 785 ], 78S 1, 804 1, 803 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 564 571 627 349 646 705 2,038 2, 190 2,078 2, 098 1,969 2,042 112,791 110,495 114, 656 83, 284 119,037 117,897 1949: Nov. 5 12 162 387 5,435 5, 435 5, 644 5, 537 1, 183 2, 358 2, 387 Week ended: 1948: Nov. 6 13 20 19 26 Dec. 3 10 __ _ ___ ___ _ 1, 058 1, 442 1, 617 2 1 690 447 112, 111, 111, 71, 2 66, 838 727 779 860 559 1 2 Daily average for week. Data became available after chart was prepared. Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, and Ward's Automotive Reports. 11 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE MANUFACTURES Iron and steel production decreased sharply in October to the average 1935-39 level; weekly data for November indicate substantial recovery. Nonferrous metals dropped slightly after considerable gains in September. Output of lumber was at its peak for the year and machinery output continued to increase. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE LUMBER AND PRODUCTS MONTHLY A V E R A G E 100 L I ' ' 40 42 44- 46 48 40 42 44 46 48 MACHINERY 1! 1 1 40 42 44 46 48 I I M I I I I I I I I I 1 I I'347 1948 I I I I I I I I I ( I 1949 40 42 44 46 48 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. [1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted] Period Iron and steel Machinery Nonferrous metals and products 1935-39 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 100 208 183 150 195 208 100 129 109 131 143 145 100 443 343 240 276 277 100 267 204 157 187 193 1948: September __. October November _ _ December 214 221 224 223 143 147 145 143 273 277 276 277 192 192 187 184 1949: Januarv February March _ April. May_ June__ __. July .. August- _ _ _ September October ' . _ _ 228 232 233 219 204 177 156 178 179 101 129 123 129 126 126 123 115 126 133 137 268 262 252 240 232 225 217 215 224 227 183 185 183 167 145 133 127 141 157 152 1 _ __ Preliminary estimate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 12 Lumber and products PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE MANUFACTURES Activity in textile industries in October was at its highest point since November 1948. Production of chemicals showed some further improvement; manufactured foods continued at peak levels; petroleum and coal products remained unchanged. PERCE NT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS 300 300 MONTHLY AVERAGE 200 100 0 J 1 1 40 " i i 42 I I | | | 44 46 48 ~^~ n^-vy I 1 11 1 1 I 1 1 ! 1 1947 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 II 1 1 1948 200 100 0 A/ v y i i i i I I i i i 40 1949 42 44 46 ^^ i 48 MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS ^^•A/" 1 1 1 11111 111 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1947 I! 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 ! 1948 1949 CHEMICAL PRODUCTS 400 400 MONTHLY A AVERAGE j\ S£ 300 S 300 •* • •V-^ 200 200 100 r^«- / ^— 100 0 40 42 44 46 48 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1948 1949 1947 O ! i 40 f 1 42 1 1 ! 44 1 1 46 48 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 11 1 11 11 1111 1947 i'i 1 1 t i I ! 1 1 1 1948 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 1949 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1935-39—100, seasonally adjusted] Textiles and products Period 1935—39 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthlv average _ 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948: September October. November December __ 1949: January FebruarvMarch April May June July August September October 1 . _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ Petroleum and coal products Manufactured food products Chemical products 100 153 146 162 163 169 100 185 235 173 193 218 100 145 151 150 157 159 100 384 284 236 251 254 168 167 164 156 207 217 227 231 163 161 159 158 257 255 257 257 160 157 142 129 123 126 120 140 154 164 228 221 213 209 207 202 198 204 206 206 160 162 162 162 162 165 161 164 166 166 257 250 245 237 234 231 226 228 236 239 1 Preliminary estimate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Digitized99186—49 for FRASER3 13 NEW CONSTRUCTION New construction declined seasonally in November, with residential activity showing particular strength. MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2,000 2,000 1,500 1,500 i\i 1 prrr-r 1,000 ! \ m 1939 | Pi 1 I % i I ii 4 J 1942 1944 1946 1947 1948 *INCLUDES PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL SOURCES: 1,000 F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J A F S 0 N CONSTRUCTION DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Millions of dollars] Private construction Total new construction Period 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948: September October November December 1949: January February March ApriL-_ _ May . June..July August _ _ SeptemberOctober 2 November 14 1 2 _ _ - „ _ _ _ _ _.. 526 1, 118 345 871 1, 194 1,565 1,901 1, 814 1,646 1,447 1,293 1, 172 1,267 1,370 1,576 1,735 1,833 1,903 1,922 1, 886 1, 726 Total private 317 251 152 688 932 1,214 1,427 1,355 1,256 1, 129 1,002 905 951 989 1, 108 1,229 1, 301 1, 343 1,368 1,354 1, 279 Includes public residential construction. Preliminary estimate. Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor. Residential (nonfarm) 176 110 45 265 438 602 707 670 615 547 475 400 420 445 530 600 650 675 710 725 700 Other 141 141 107 422 493 612 720 685 641 582 527 505 531 544 578 629 651 668 658 629 579 Federal, State, and local * 208 867 193 184 262 351 474 459 390 318 291 267 316 381 468 506 532 560 554 532 447 D NEW HOUSING STARTS Housing starts continued at very high levels in October. This year appears certain to establish a record. THOUSANDS OF UNITS 125 J THOUSANDS OF UNITS 125 F M A M J SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. New nonfarm units started Month 1947 January February March- _ April 1VJ.O,J Mav _- June July August September October November December _ _ _ _ _ - -- _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - - - Total Monthly average 1948 39, 300 42, 800 56, 000 67, 100 72, 900 77, 200 81, 100 86, 300 93, 800 94, 000 79, 700 58, 800 53, 500 50, 100 76, 400 99, 500 100, 300 97, 800 95, 000 86, 600 82, 200 73, «00 63, 600 52, 900 849, 000 931, 300 70, 750 77, 600 1949 50, 000 50, 400 69, 400 88, 300 95, 400 95, 500 96, 100 1 98, 000 i 100, 000 i 100, 000 1 Preliminary estimate. Source: Department of Labor. 15 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Nonagriculturol business firms reported in a recent SEC-Commerce survey expected expenditures of $17.9 billion on new plant and equipment for 1949. Actual expenditures for 1st half of this year were I percent above 1st half of 1948 but estimate for 2nd half was about 14 percent under actual expenditures for the corresponding period last year. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 ANNUAL RATES* ANN UAL TOTALS S-PLANNED-** -ACTUAL- 15 TRANSPORTATION AND ELECTRIC AND GAS p£UTlLITIES|:-x-:-:;v>l 1939 1941 * NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL 1945 VARIATION. SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal] Period Total i Manufacturing Mining Transportation Railroad 1939 1941 1945 1947 1948 3 1949 1947: Third quarter. _ _ Fourth quarter 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter 3 3 _ _ _ Fourth quarter 1 Excludes agriculture. 2 Commercial and miscellaneous 3 5,200 8, 190 6,630 16, 180 19, 230 17, 920 16, 560 19, 760 16, 680 19, 280 19, 320 21, 640 17, 840 18, 640 18, 200 17, 000 1,930 3,400 3,210 7,460 8,340 7, 120 7,480 9, 160 7, 200 8, 560 8,360 9,280 7, 400 7,520 7,080 6,480 380 680 440 690 800 740 720 840 720 800 800 880 760 760 720 680 280 560 550 910 1,320 1,360 920 1,200 1,080 1, 240 1,320 1, 640 1, 440 1, 520 1,360 1, 120 Other 280 340 320 800 700 540 800 760 720 760 680 680 520 560 560 520 Electric and Commercial miscelgas utilities and laneous 2 480 710 630 1,900 2, 680 3, 100 2,000 2,480 2,000 2, 560 2,760 3,400 2, 720 3, 120 3, 240 3,320 1, 850 2,490 1, 480 4,430 5, 390 5,080 4, 640 5, 360 4,960 5,360 5, 440 5, 760 5,040 5, 160 5, 200 4, 960 composed of trade, service, finance, and communication. Estimates for third quarter are based on preliminary estimates of business in July; fourth quarter figures are based on anticipated capital expenditures. NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultuial investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other data. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000. Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted). NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES After reaching the postwar peak (quarterly rate) during the 2nd quarter of this year, corporate issues fell substantially in the 3rd quarter, reflecting the usual seasonal movement. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3.0 3.0 1939 1943 1946 1947 1948 SOURCE: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION. [Millions of dollars] Proposed uses of net proceeds Estimated net proceeds Period New money Total 1939 quarterly average 1943 auarterlv average 1945 quarterly average 1946 quarterly average 1947 quarterly average 1948 quarterly average _ - 1947* Third quarter Fourth quarter _ 1948' First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949* First quarter Second quarter— Third quarter 2 _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Plant and equipment Working capital Retirement of debt and stock l 529 287 1,475 1,689 1,617 1,748 81 77 270 820 1, 148 1,491 43 35 159 529 852 1,060 39 42 111 291 296 431 448 210 1,206 869 469 257 1,374 2,311 884 2,000 692 1, 654 192 347 490 310 1,769 1,817 1, 352 2,054 1, 511 1,493 1,087 1,874 918 1, 091 774 1,459 593 402 314 415 260 325 265 180 1,056 2,311 807 850 1,968 688 699 1,615 599 152 353 89 206 343 119 1 2 Includes small amount for other purposes. Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Securities and Exchange Commission. 17 INVENTORIES AND SALES in October there was only a slight further net liquidation of inventories by manufacturers, while wholesalers and department stores continued to add to stocks. Sales dropped sharply in both manufacturing and trade. BILL ONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS WHOLESALE RETAIL 20 20 SE !NVE^ T<DRIES >•" 1 0 I 0 H ....^MM SA •• •<****<? t 0 I 4C 1 1 42 ! 1 ! 44 1 1 46 s ' ./• "'"^s *»**»-^^, ^^K^^^^ \ .** .* s INVE NT ORIES L L 1 1 1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 I 48 1947 1 1 1 II 1948 11 1 i 1i 0 1 | 40 1949 1 !! 42 1 1 44 | 1 46 7 1 1 M 48 1 I 1 1 I 1 1 1 l 1 I I 1 1 1 i I 1 l l l l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1948 1949 1947 PERCE BILL IONS OF DOLLARS DEPARTMENT STORES MANUFACTURERS 40 400 MONTHLY AVERAGE INVE \I7 ORIES V -U 30 / ***** Y/ „•* / s^r* ^^^^^\ L ES 1 00 l i i i ij i i i 40 42 44 1 M II 46 48 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT 1 1 I 1 11 1947 OF COMMERCE ! 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1I ! 11 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1948 AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS Inventories l | 0 1949 /J 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 M i I I 1 I ] 1 LJ 40 42 44 46 48 May Ju ne _ _ July August September October 5 1 2 3 4 6 _ _ _ _ _ • _ __ 3, 175 4, 182 3,684 4,638 6, 665 8, 653 9,511 9,581 9,730 9,714 9,511 9,464 9,479 9,293 9, 330 9, 153 9,002 9,091 9,061 9, 186 9, 220 1 1 ! J1I 1 1947 Retail Sales 2 Inventories l Manufacturers Sales 2, 505 3, 620 4,273 4,983 6,601 7, 754 8,355 8,489 8,083 8,236 8, 158 7,723 7, 680 7,890 7,422 7,498 7,718 7, 158 7,703 7,572 7, 166 5,532 7, 630 7,361 7,543 11, 226 13, 221 14, 969 14, 877 14, 937 15, 027 14, 969 14, 659 14, 479 14, 700 14, 458 14, 139 14, 182 13, 862 13, 932 14, 355 14, 478 2 Inventories l 3, 504 4,624 5, 277 6,315 8, 358 9,909 10, 837 10, 961 10, 899 10, 763 10, 987 10, 592 10, 686 10, 705 10, 790 10, 738 10, 663 10, 521 10, 679 10, 824 10, 647 Sales 2 1949 Department stores Inventories 3 Sales 3 1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted 4 11,465 16, 960 20, 098 18, 390 24, 818 29, 817 34, 066 33, 380 33, 528 33, 810 34, 066 34, 409 34, 408 34, 223 34, 018 33, 565 33, 250 32, 367 31, 656 31, 100 30, 900 5,099 8, 168 12, 822 12, 873 12, 841 17, 076 19, 028 19, 902 18, 978 19, 648 19, 065 17, 880 18, 175 18, 451 17, 643 17, 741 17, 990 17, 114 18, 689 18, 900 16, 700 Book value, end of period. Monthly average for year and total for month. Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for month and retail book value of inventories, end of period. All dollar figures, except for retail sales, have been revised and do not agree with data published prior to October 1949. Preliminary estimates. Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18for FRASER Digitized i j 11 1 11 i 11 I 1 1 I 1 1948 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1939 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ 1941 1943 _ _ __ 1945 1946 _ 1947 --. 1948 _ 1948* September October November _ _ __ __ December 1949' January ____ February March _ _ _ _ April. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ •" OF THE FE DERAL RES ERVE SYSTEM Wholesale Period ^NA x/ •«*.. jf ~>A / 0 •••••.^ //INVEfv TC)RIES 200 ^~~S^ j^-—\ ^ y&\ / 20 1 0 /s/\L :sx 300 102 131 155 166 213 255 291 291 290 295 288 278 276 283 280 273 265 256 253 264 270 106 133 168 207 264 286 302 309 309 290 303 295 281 277 294 292 285 280 283 289 275 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS In October the merchandise export surplus fell sharply. Imports of goods continued to recover for the third successive month, reaching the highest level since March, while exports fell to the lowest point since the maritime strike a year ago. MILLIONS OF DOLLAR: 1,600 M I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS 1600 - 1400 1200 - 1000 800 600 400 - 200 J F M A M 1946 1936-38 SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY 1^====== [Millions of dollars] Period Exports * Imports2 Excess of exports 1936-38 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average. _ _ 1948 monthly average 247 1, 080 877 849 1, 278 1, 051 207 282 346 410 478 594 40 798 531 439 801 457 1948: September October November December 926 1,021 820 1, 285 560 600 554 720 366 421 266 565 1949: January February March April May June July August September October 1, 094 1, 032 1, 159 1,148 1,077 1, 104 897 881 904 849 590 568 632 534 539 527 456 491 530 559 504 464 527 614 538 578 441 390 374 290 1 2 Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas. Recorded general merchandise imports. Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy. 19 PURCHASING POWER National income continued to decline in 3rd quarter. Compensation of employees increased very slightly, while farm income (part of proprietors 1 and rental) showed significant drop. B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS CORPORATE PROFITS AND - -•::::::::::::::::>:>< :;INVENTORY VALUATION!:;:;:;:;:;:;:::::::::::::::: :;:;:::;:: ADJUSTMENT:;: ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: 1950 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (except as noted). COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S [Billions of dollars] Total national income Period 1939 1944 1946 1947 L948 72.5 183. 8 179. 6 201. 7 226. 2 _ . Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment Compensation of employees Proprietors' and rental income Net interest 47.8 121.2 117.0 127. 6 140.3 14. 7 35. 5 41. 3 45. 1 49.5 4. 2 3. 1 3. 0 3.4 3. 8 Total Profits before taxes 5.8 24.0 18.3 25. 6 32. 6 Inventory valuation adjustment 6. 5 24. 3 23. 6 31. 6 34. 8 -0. 7 33.0 35. 0 36. 6 34. 5 -4.5 -2.0 -3. 3 + 1.2 29. 4 26.4 26. 0 + 2. 3 4-4.5 + 3.5 o -5! 3 -6.0 -2. 2 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1948: First quarter. Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter __ 1949: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter ] 1 2 ._ _ _ ._ 2 215. 1 224. 9 230.4 234. 3 135. 1 137. 7 143. 3 144. 9 48.0 50.4 49. 9 49.7 3. 6 3. 7 3. 9 4. 1 226. 3 223. 4 220. 5 142.5 141.8 142. 2 47.8 46.5 44. 5 4.2 4. 3 4. 3 Preliminary estimates. Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). Digitized 20 for FRASER 28. 5 33. 0 33.3 35.7 2 31.8 30. 9 29. 5 2 CORPORATE PROFITS According to preliminary estimates for the 3rd quarter, corporate profits were slightly below the 2nd quarter rate. When allowance is mode for inventory valuation adjustment, the decline was more substantial. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4O I960 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ( E X C E P T AS N O T E D ) COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Corporate profits before taxes Period 1929 1939 1944 1946 1947 1948 9.8 6.5 24. 3 23. 6 31. 6 34. 8 _. . .-_ Corporate tax liability 1.4 1.5 13. 5 9. 6 12. 5 13. 6 Corporate profits after taxes Total 8.4 5.0 10. 8 13. 9 19. 1 21. 2 Dividend payments 5.8 3.8 4. 7 5. 8 7.0 7. 9 Undistributed profits 2.6 1. 2 6. 1 8. 1 12. 1 13. 2 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter 2 _ __ l 33.0 35. 0 36. 6 34. 5 12. 8 13. 7 14. 4 13. 6 20.2 21. 3 22. 2 20.9 7.6 7. 7 7.9 8.3 12. 6 13. 6 14. 3 12. 6 29. 4 26. 4 26. 0 11. 5 10.6 10.4 17. 9 15. 8 15. 6 8.4 8.4 8.4 9.5 7.4 7.2 1 2 Preliminary estimates. Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data. NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment. taxes and inventory valuation adjustment. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). See p. 20 for profits before 21 PERSONAL INCOME Personal income dropped sharply in October, largely because work stoppages affected wage and salary income adversely. Transfer payments fell because of the termination of the life insurance dividend for World War I veterans. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 ! BILLIONS D O L L A R S ANNUAL TOTALS ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY 250 ADJUSTED TOTAL *6222£*%Z^^ w;•:•>;'•:-;KRQPR'ET'ORS^ "AND RENTAL INCOME :-: .';>->>x'> >":';>vx ^ ^T ,.\..-.,.-...-.,-,,B,.-,.f...-,^WyVV>,VV>'>V.,'^,'.l,-. .••.'«-,.',.-<V.-, \'^>;; .V.*«V.%VvV»^ A'vV < rV//v"AVVVV.V'>V-<Vy''-i •^^:v;<<-XvX'^':v>:<>;vX<<v^:'>>^;<x:' >;<:*y<:#>#^ S¥: <^<; !jilIl!JJiIiill|li.SAU\R!ES,.WAGES, ETCJil|illipipli;liPl;:lil 1939 1944 1947 1948 J__l 1949 J A S O N D J 1947 SOURCE: F M A M J J A S O N D J F 1948 M A M J J A S O T ^ 1949 D J F M A M J 1950 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE CiL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Total personal income Period 1939 1944 1946 1947 1948 72. 6 165. 9 176.9 193. 5 211. 9 . Salaries, wages, Proprietors' Dividends and rental and personal and other labor income income interest 45.7 116. 2 111.0 122. 0 135. 1 14. 7 35. 5 41. 2 45. 1 49. 5 9. 2 10. 6 13. 2 14, 8 16. 2 Transfer payments 3. 0 3.6 11.4 11.7 11. 1 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1948: September October November December 1949: January February March April Mav June July August _ September October! 1 __ 216. 3 216. 3 216.6 217.0 215. 7 212. 9 212. 4 212. 5 213. 1 211. 9 209. 7 211. 4 210. 5 208.4 139. 7 140. 1 139. 5 139. 1 138. 6 137. 1 135. 6 136. 8 137. 1 136. 1 136. 3 136.6 137. 0 135. 3 Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. 22 49.4 49. 0 49. 8 50. 3 49. 0 47.2 47. 3 46. 3 46. 7 46. 5 44.2 45. 2 43. 8 43. 9 16. 5 16. 8 16. 9 16. 9 17.0 17. 1 17. 1 17. 2 17.3 17.2 17. 1 17. 3 17. 4 17. 5 10. 7 10. 4 10.4 10. 7 11. 1 11. 5 12.4 12.2 12.0 12. 1 12. 1 12. 3 1 2. 3 11. 7 CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND Disposable income declined about $2 billion (annual rate) in the 3rd quarter. A considerable part of the decline was concentrated in farm income. Expenditures dropped less than $'/2 biliion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS "I 250 I 00 I960 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED). [Billions of dollars] Disposable personal income * Period 1939 1940 1941 . 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 _. 1947 1948 __ __ _ _ 70. 2 75. 7 92.0 116.2 131.6 147.0 151. 1 158. 1 172.0 190.8 Less: Personal consumption expenditures Equals: Personal saving 67.5 72. 1 82. 3 90.8 101. 6 111. 6 123. 1 147.8 166. 9 178.8 2. 7 3. 7 9. 8 25. 4 30.0 35. 4 28.0 10. 3 5. 1 12. 0 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1948: First quarter __ Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949: First quarter Second quarter __ Third quarter 2 _ 181.9 189.6 195. 2 196.2 194.9 193. 8 191. 9 175. 2 178. 7 180.3 180. 9 178. 6 178. 9 178. 5 6. 7 10. 8 15. 0 15. 3 16.3 14. 8 13. 3 1 2 Income less taxes. Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. 23 PER CAPITA INCOME Per capita disposable income, in terms of real purchasing power, continued near peak levels in 3rd quarter. DOLLARS 1,600 DOLLARS 1,600 ANNUAL R A T E S , SEASONALLY A D J U S T E D 1948 DOLLARS f* \ S* ^——5 I.EOO 1,200 CURRENT DOLLARS I 1939 1940 1941 1942 I 1943 I 1944 I 1945 J 1946 I 1947 J 1948 1949 3 4 1947 I 2 I 2 3 1948 Per capita disposable personal income 1 Current 1948 dollars 3 dollars $536 $923 574 981 1, 125 691 1,262 867 1,314 970 1,065 1,405 1,082 1,389 1,342 1, 119 1,282 1, 194 1,302 1,302 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1 2 3 _» _ __ _ _ _ _ _ 2 1950 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Period _ I 1949 CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE CONSUMERS PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE 1948=100 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF L A B O R , (EXCEPT AS NOTED). 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949: First quarter Second quarter4 Third Quarter _ I 3 _ 1,248 1,296 1,328 1,328 1,314 1,301 1,283 1,273 1, 301 1,305 1,319 1, 325 1,314 1,300 Consumers' price index 1 1948 = 100 58. 1 58.5 61.4 68. 7 73.8 75.8 77.9 83.4 93. 1 100.0 Not adjusted for seasonal variation 98.0 99.6 101.8 100.7 99.2 99.0 98. 7 Income less taxes. Current dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base 1948=100. The consumers' price index has been roughly adjusted to take account of the understatement from December 1941-February 1947. This adjustment is in line with the report of the Mitchell Committee. The unadjusted index will be found on page 2. 4 Preliminary estimates. Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor. Digitized 24 for FRASER AVERAGE HOURLY EAR[NIN'GS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES IAverage hourly earnings in manufacturing dropped mo re than a cent to $1.39 in October. Most of the drop (occurred in durable goods where several hundred thou sand hie|her-paid workers were removed from the pay\-oils as a result of the steel strike. OOLLAfRS PER HOUR DOLL* RS PER HOUR 1.60 1.50 DURABLE MANUFACTURING NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING 1.40 1.50 DOLLARS* ^-y»^ZZs~~*^\ 1948 1948 1.30 1.40 1.30 / 1 /^\ \ CURRENT /~-'""x~;,^-- 1.20 S*^ 0 CURRi NT DOLLARS MO ~MII| , 1947 1 1 1 1 ! I I 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1949 I95O 1948 0 1 1 I 1 1 1J 1 1 1 II i i l 1 L LI J J 1 1947 2.1 0 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1948 1 ] 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 | I95O 1949 1.20 RETAIL TRADE-GENERAL MERCHANDISE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION I.I 0 2.00 F xx-~ 1.90 I.OO 1948 DOLLARS*/ J ** V**'v / ^« CURRENT 1.80 1946 .90 jT .80 I 1 11 1 i 1 1 I 1 ! 11 i 1 1 1 I 11 1 L 1947 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 L 1 1948 1949 1 i 1 I i 1 I 1 1 I 1 1 1950 DOLLARS* r^ " ^^/ DOLLARS 1.70 U ^ DOLLARS 1.20 1 <c^£x DOLLARS* ~ •""""^ ^'CURRENT DOLLARS ! i i i || 1 i i i i i i i i i i ! i i ij i 1 11 1111 1111 1947 1948 1949 1 I 1 1 1 I1 1 1 1 L 1950 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Selected industries l] All manufacturing Durable goods manufacturing Nondurable goods manufacturing Building construction General merchandise retail trade Period Current dollars 1939 monthly average1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948: September October November December 1949: January February. March April __ May June July 4 August -_ 4 September __ _ 4 October 1 2 3 4 -_ _ _ $0. 633 . 961 1.084 1. 237 1. 350 1.386 1. 390 1.397 1. 400 1. 405 1.401 1.400 1.401 1.401 1.406 1. 408 1.398 1. 407 1.392 1948 dollars 2 $1. 090 1. 302 1.300 1. 329 1. 350 1. 360 1. 371 1.389 1. 399 1.408 1.419 1.414 1.414 1. 418 1.419 1.431 1.418 1. 420 1.415 Current dollars (3) (33) () $1. 292 1.410 1.457 1.462 1.463 1.466 1.467 1.466 1. 464 1.467 1.467 1.476 1.477 1.472 1. 481 1.460 1948 dollars 2 (33) () (3) $1. 388 1.410 1.430 1.442 1.454 1.465 1.470 1.485 1.480 1.480 1.485 1.489 1. 501 1.493 1. 494 1.484 Production and related workers. Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on base 1948=100. Not available. Preliminary estimates. Source: Department of Labor. Current dollars (33) (3) () $1. 171 1.278 1.304 1. 302 1.317 1. 319 1.327 1.323 1. 323 1.321 1. 323 1. 325 1.332 1. 319 1. 328 1. 323 1948 dollars 2 (33) (3) () $1. 258 1. 278 1. 280 1. 284 1.309 1.318 1.330 1. 340 1. 336 1. 333 1. 339 1. 337 1.354 1. 338 1.340 1. 345 Current dollars (33) (3) () (3) $1. 848 1.895 1.892 1. 906 1. 915 1.918 1.930 1. 933 1. 934 1.930 1. 924 1. 922 1.932 1.938 (3) 1948 dollars 2 (33) (3) () (3) $1. 848 1.360 1.866 1.895 1.913 1.922 1.955 1. 953 1. 952 1. 953 1. 941 1. 953 1.959 1.956 (3) Current dollars (3) (33) () $0. 853 . 910 .923 . 922 .918 . 919 . 943 .937 . 933 . 934 . 960 .968 . 964 . 961 .968 (3) 1948 dollars 2 (33) (3) () $0. 916 .910 .906 .909 .913 . 918 . 945 .949 . 942 .942 .972 .977 .980 .975 .977 3 () See note 3 to table on page 24. 25 AVERAGE WEEKLY EAFiNIN[GS /Average DOLL ftRS PER weekly earnings dropped slightly in both du rable an d nondurable manufacturing in October. DOLL ARS WEEK 65 PER WEEK 60 DURABLE NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING * 60 1948 DOLLARS yx^ ^^ 1948 DOLLARS* 50 y^C RRENT 45 45 40 i i i I . 1 . I . I . 1947 •*'***S* •"••»"** ^vmrn^S^^^**** * r^^1 DOLLARS 50 LL-.i...^ MANUFACTURING 55 55 0 - SELECTED INDUSTRIES 1948 ..nil..... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I1 1 1 n *****r^* CURRENT DOLLARS I ( I I i 1i i i i i 1950 1949 i I I M I M 1 11 1947 , i,,,i 1948 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 , i ,7 1949 1950 45 80 BUILDING CONSTRUCTION RETAIL TRADE - GENERAL MERCHANDISE 40 75 s^t\•*& *r 70 1948 1948 DOLLARS* 65 ^CURRENT 30 -^/^F^^ C OLLAR3 ^^ CURRENT DOLLARS 60 25 0 7M , , 1 , , , M 1947 |iiiit 1948 . , . , i 1i , , . , , , ,. 1949 . 1 . , ..7 DEPARTMENT 0 7. i ... 1 1 M 1 I ! 1 M 1 1947 1950 * * HOT AVAILABLE 946 '100 SOURCE : ^^s 35 DOLLAF % , .1 1 ,i.1 1 ., 1948 1949 . 1 1 1 1 1 . . i ,7 1950 PRIOR TO JANUARY I5<!8 COUNCIL OF LABOR or ECONOMIC ADVISORS [Selected industries l] All manufacturing Durable goods manufacturing Nondurable goods manufacturing Building construction General merchandise retail trade Period Current dollars 1948 dollars 2 Current dollars 1948 dollars 2 Current dollars 1948 dollars 2 Current dollars $41. 07 $23. 86 (33) (33) (33) (3) (33) 43. 14 58.46 (3) (3) (3) (33) (3) 43. 74 52.45 (3) () () () () $52. 46 $50. 44 $56. 35 $46. 96 49. 97 53. 67 () $68. 85 50. 61 54. 14 54. 14 57. 11 57. 11 50. 61 _ 71. 29 54. 13 57. 19 51. 64 50. 68 55. 16 58. 28 70. 59 50. 21 58. 68 50. 91 54. 83 59. 50 55. 60 69. 39 51. 32 58. 76 55. 60 55. 27 59. 11 51. 63 72. 33 51. 84 51. 79 56. 08 56. 14 59. 61 59. 67 70. 88 51. 35 51. 45 55. 50 55. 61 58. 83 58. 95 70. 53 52.01 59. 26 55. 93 58. 49 55. 20 51. 33 69. 83 54. 74 55. 29 58.41 51. 07 51. 59 57. 83 70. 33 50. 12 49. 67 53. 80 54. 29 57. 21 57. 73 May 51. 02 71. 81 50.41 54. 74 54. 08 57. 21 57. 90 June 51.01 51. 47 71. 44 54. 55 55. 05 57. 86 58. 39 July 4 52.35 58.24 55. 52 51. 51 71. 28 57.31 54.63 52.04 August _ __ 71. 96 58.52 54. 66 55.44 57. 70 51. 31 4 September 70.62 52. 94 55.72 58.80 59. 33 52.46 56.23 October 4 _ _ 59. 05 52. 26 55. 26 56. 16 53. 11 58. 11 (3) 1 For production and related workers. 2 Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1948=100. See note^3 to table on page 24. *4 Not available. Preliminary estimates. Source: Department of Labor. 1939 monthly average _ _ 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average __ 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average. _ 1948: September October November December 1949: January February. _ March April 26 1948 dollars 2 (33) (3) (3) () $68. 85 69. 96 69. 62 68. 98 72. 26 71. 02 71.46 70. 54 70. 97 72. 68 72. 09 72. 44 72. 98 71. 26 (3) Current dollars (33) () (3) $30. 96 33. 31 33. 50 33. 19 32. 86 34. 46 34. 42 34.01 33. 68 34. 18 34. 85 35. 62 35.86 35. 75 35. 24 (3) 1948 i dollars 2 (33) (3) () $33. 25 33. 31 32. 88 32. 73 32. 66 34.43 34.49 34. 46 34.02 34. 49 35. 27 35. 94 36.44 36. 26 35. 56 (3) FARM INCOME Farm Income increased in October as major crops moved to market, and the fall run of hogs began. Both in current dollars and in purchasing power, however, income fell increasingly below last year's level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. Farm income (millions of current dollars) 1 Period 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthlv average 1948 monthly average 1948: September _ _ October November __ December 1949: January February _ March April May June _ _ __ July August ^ 4 September October 4 1 2 z 4 724 981 _- _ _ __ _ - _ ___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ -_ __ ___ _ _ __ __ __ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ __ _ _ 1, 340 1, 678 1, 765 1, 857 2, 110 2, 542 2, 609 3, 132 3, 714 3, 314 2, 740 2, 383 1, 783 1, 973 1, 850 1, 944 2,053 2, 177 2,417 2, 608 3,051 Prices paid by farmers (incl, Farm income (millions of interest and 1948 dollars) 3 taxes) 1948= 2 100 49. 8 53 0 60. 2 65. 1 67. 9 69. 1 77. 5 92. 8 100. 0 100. 4 100. 0 99. 2 99. 6 99. 6 98. 4 98. 8 98 8 98. 4 98.4 98.0 97. 7 97. 2 96. 4 1,454 1, 851 2, 226 2, 578 2, 599 2, 687 2,723 2, 739 2, 609 3, 120 3, 714 3,341 2,751 2,393 1,812 1, 997 1, 872 1, 976 2,086 2,221 2,474 2, 683 3, 165 Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments. Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1948=100. Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, and taxes, 1948=100. Preliminary estimates, Source: Department of Agriculture. 27 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Heavy purchases of automobiles and other durables plus an increase in service expenditures almost completely offset the drop in expenditures for nondurables in 3rd quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS, OF DOLLARS 200 200 ANNUAL TOTALS ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 100 1939 1944 1947 1948 1949 IS47 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED). [Billions of dollars] Personal consumption expenditures Period Nondurable goods Total 1939 1944 1946_ 1947 1948. _ 67.5 111. 6 147. 8 166. 9 178.8 35.3 67. 1 86.8 96. 2 102! 2 Durable goods 6. 7 7. 1 16. 5 22.0 23. 5 Services 25. 5 37.4 44. 5 48. 8 53. 1 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter _ 1949: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter L _ __ 1 175. 2 178. 7 180. 3 180.9 101. 2 102. 4 101. 8 103.3 22. 7 23. 8 24. 8 22. 9 51.3 52. 5 53. 7 54. 8 178.6 178.9 178. 5 100. 1 99.3 96. 5 23. 1 23.8 25.8 55.4 55.9 56.2 Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. 28 CONSUMER CREDIT During October, instalment, credit accounted for the major portion of the $388 million expansion in consumer credit. This rise was larger than the rise for the corresponding period of 1948. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 20 1939 1943 1946 1947 END OF YEAR 1947 1948 END OF MONTH SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF T.HE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. [Millions of dollars] Total consumer credit outstanding End of period 1939 1943 1946 1947 1948 _ _ _ _ ___ 1948: September October „ November December 1949: January February March April May__ June _ July August September October 2 __ __ _ 2 _ _ __ _ _ __ Instalment credit Total Automobile sale credit Other sale credit and loans Charge accounts Other consumer credit * 7, 969 5, 378 10, 191 13, 673 16, 319 4,424 2,001 4,000 6, 434 8,600 1,267 175 544 1, 151 1,961 3, 157 1,826 3,456 5,283 6,639 1,544 1,498 3,054 3,612 3,854 2,. 001 1,879 3, 137 3,627 3,865 15, 15, 15, 16, 8, 8, 8, 8, 190 233 322 600 1,858 1,889 1,922 1,961 6,332 6,344 6,400 6,639 3,227 3,457 3,557 3,854 3,814 3, 828 3,860 3,865 8,424 8, 339 8,429 8, 630 8, 888 9, 123 9, 335 9, 622 9.893 10, 1.71 1,965 1,996 2, 105 2, 241 2, 386 2, 499 2, 610 2, 761 2, 876 3, 002 6, 459 6, 343 6,324 6,389 6,502 6,624 6,725 6, 861 7,017 7, 169 3,457 3, 169 3, 121 3,232 3, 235 3,274 3, 123 3, 064 3, 130 3, 192 3,867 3,817 3, 785 3, 733 3, 720 3, 727 3, 740 3, 767 3, 776 3, 824 231 518 739 319 15, 748 15, 325 15, 335 15, 595 15, 843 16, 124 16, 198 16,453 16, 799 17, 187 1 2 Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit. Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS billion, In October, commercial banks, increased their holdings of Government securities by nearly while their loans and private investments remained relatively stable. BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S 125 125 100 100 i< INVEST ME' N'T i!i!i!i!i!i!i;i!:!i!i!iiiii!K-' S . G O V E R N M ENT '""IN"'"" SECUFCITIES; _:' :":'•: 75 75 .-:-:•:•:•: ,:.:,:, ',<•'. •'.•'.-_".:_'.<<<< 50 50 25, 25 1929 J 1939 1945 F M A M J J A S O N D J F 1947 END OF YEAR M A M J J A S O N D J IS48 END OF MONTH F M A M J J A S 0*N D 1949 PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE SOURCE: Bo( [Billions of dollars, all commercial banks] End of period 1929 1939 1945 1947 1948 . 1948: September October November December.. 1949: January™ February March April May . June July _ „ August September October * 1 v - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ Investments Total loans and investments Bank loans 49. 5 40.7 124. 0 116. 3 114. 3 113. 6 114. 1 114. 2 114. 3 114. 5 113. 4 112. 5 112. 5 113. 4 113. 7 114. 7 117. 9 118. 8 119. 8 36. 0 17.2 26. 1 38. 1 42.5 41.7 41. 6 42.3 42.5 42.4 42. 0 42.4 41.3 40.9 41.2 40. 5 41.2 41. 8 41. 9 Total Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 30 13. 5 23.4 97. 9 78. 2 71.8 71.9 72. 5 71.9 71.8 72.0 71. 4 70. 1 71.2 72. 6 72. 5 74.2 76. 7 77. 0 77. 9 U. S. Government securities 4.8 16. 3 90.6 69. 2 62.6 62.5 63.3 62.8 62.6 63.0 62. 2 60. 9 62.0 63.2 63.0 64.4 66. 7 66. 8 67. 7 Other securities 8.7 7. 1 7.3 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.2 9. 1 9.2 9. 1 9. 1 9. 2 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.8 10.0 10. 2 10. 2 MONEY SUPPLY Increased demand deposits expanded the total money supply almost $ \YZ billion in October. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY ( EXCLUDING U.S.GOV'T. DEPOSITS) :TIME DEPOSITS ADJUSTED DEMAND DEPOSITS 1939 1943 1946 1947 1948 J F M A M END OF YEAR J J A S O N D J F M A M 1947 J J A S O N D J F M 1948 A M J J A S O N D 1949 END OF MONTH SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S [Billions of dollars] End of period Total money supply 1939 1943 1946 1947 1948 _ . _ _ 1948: September October _ November December 1949: January. . _ February March April May __ June July August _ __ September 3 October _ _ 63.3 112. 4 164.0 170. 0 169. 1 166.9 168. 1 168 1 169. 1 168. 2 166. 3 164. 2 165. 5 165. 7 165 6 166. 3 166. 9 166. 6 168.0 _ __ _ _ _ _ Currency outside banks 6.4 18. 8 26. 7 26. 5 26. 1 25.7 25. 7 25 9 26. 1 25. 2 25. 1 25. 1 24.9 25. 0 25. 0 24.9 25. 1 24. 9 24. 9 Adjusted demand deposits l 29. 8 60. 8 83.3 87. 1 85. 5 83.9 85. 1 85. 2 85. 5 85.4 83.4 81. 1 82. 4 82. 6 82. 2 83. 1 83.4 83. 3 84. 6 Time deposits s 27. 1 32. 7 54.0 56.4 57.5 57.3 57.3 57. 0 57.5 57.6 57.8 58. 0 58. 1 58. 2 58. 4 58.4 58.3 58. 4 58.4 1 Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection. 2 Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System. 3 Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 31 FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC The cash deficit of about $400 million for the 3rd quarter compares with a surplus of $1.3 billion for the same quarter of 1948. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS CASH RECEIPTS CASH PAYMENTS 2 2 1947 1946 2 2 1948 1949 EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS LJ 111 EXCESS OF CASH 1946 2 ,947 3 4 . CALENDAR 2 1949 1948 YEARS SOURCE: B U R E A U OF THE BUDGET AND T R E A S U R Y DEPARTMENT. [Millions of dollars] Federal cash receipts from the public l Calendar years Federal cash payments to the public l Excess of receipts (+) or payments (— ) Calendar year total: + 54 41, 372 41, 426 1946 . . + 5,695 38, 584 44, 279 1947 4-7,967 44, 920 36, 954 1948 _ _ _ ._ Quarterly total, not adjusted for seasonal: + 1, 252 8,449 9, 702 1946: Third quarter _ 4-959 8,671 9,630 Fourth quarter 4-5, 182 9, 163 1947: First quarter 14, 345 -781 9, 847 10, 628 Second quarter — 37 10, 257 Third quarter 10, 220 + 1,331 8,536 9, 869 Fourth quarter _ _ _ _ __ 4-6,400 8,637 15, 037 1948: First quarter > _ _ + 1, 205 9,033 Second quarter 10, 238 + 1,287 8, 798 Third quarter __ 10, 085 -925 9,560 10, 486 Fourth quarter 9,964 + 3, 158 13, 122 1949: First quarter — 2, 541 11,355 8, 814 Second quarter2 10,528 — 385 10, 143 Third quarter _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1 Payments of refunds of Government receipts are now reported as deductions from total receipts; previously, they were reported as expenditures. * Preliminary estimates based on incomplete data. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget. o 32 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, TJ. S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D. O. Price 15 cents per copy; $1.75 per year; $2.25 foreien