Full text of Economic Indicators : August 1989
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101st Congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators AUGUST 1989 (Includes data available as of August 30, 1989) Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1989 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Chairman PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California) DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin) JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York) FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California) STEPHEN J. SOLARZ (New York) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine) HAMILTON FISH, JR. (New York) FREDERICK S. UPTON (Michigan) SENATE LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico) ALBERT GORE, JR. (Tennessee) RICHARD H. BRYAN (Nevada) WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) STEVE SYMMS (Idaho) PETE WILSON (California) CONNIE MACK (Florida) JOSEPH J. MINARIK, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS MICHAEL J. BOSKIN, Chairman JOHN B. TAYLOR, Member RICHARD L. SCHMALENSEE, Member-Designate [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.25 a single copy ($2.81 foreign), or by subscription at $24.00 per year ($30.00 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT In the second quarter of 1989, according to revised estimates, current-dollar gross national product (GNP) rose 7.3 percent (annual rate) or $90.7 billion. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 2.7 percent and the implicit price deflator rose 4.6 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 5,600 5,600 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 5,200 5,200 ^ 4,800 _ 4,800 ^\ — — GNP 4,400 4,400 IN CURRENT DC LLARS ^__^ ^ — 4,000 4,000 S^- ^ ,_-'"' 3,600 3,200 "" "~~ **«. X> *i *-— ^—tf^ — \ \ GNP IN 1982 DO LARS 3,600 — 3,200 — -^~~ 2,800 2,400 2,800 1 1 1 1 1981 1 ! 1 ! 1 1983 1982 1 1 1 1 1984 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1987 1986 1985 I 1 ! ! 1 2,400 1989 1988 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE- DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic ment Government purchases of goods and services Exports and imports of goods and services Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total Total National defense Nondefense State and local Final sales Gross domestic purchases 1 1980.. 1981 1982.... 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 2,732.0 3,052.6 3,166.0 3,405.7 3,772.2 4,014.9 4,231.6 4,524.3 4,880.6 1,732.6 1,915.1 2,050.7 2,234.5 2,430.5 2,629.0 2,797.4 3,010.8 3,235.1 437.0 515.5 447.3 502.3 664.8 643.1 659.4 699.9 750.3 32.1 33.9 26.3 -6.1 -58.9 -78.0 -97.4 -112.6 -73.7 351.0 382.8 361.9 352.5 383.5 370.9 396.5 448.6 547.7 318.9 348.9 335.6 358.7 442.4 448.9 493.8 561.2 621.3 530.3 588.1 641.7 675.0 735.9 820.8 872.2 926.1 968.9 208.1 242.2 272.7 283.5 310.5 355.2 366.5 381.6 381.3 142.7 167.5 193.8 214.4 234.3 259.1 277.8 294.8 298.0 65.4 74.8 78.9 69.1 76.2 96.0 88.7 86.8 83.3 322.2 345.9 369.0 391.5 425.3 465.6 505.7 544.5 587.6 2,740.3 3,028.6 3,190.5 3,412.8 3,704.5 4,003.6 4,224.8 4,495.0 4,850.0 2,699.8 3,018.7 3,139.7 3,411.8 3,831.1 4,092.8 4,829.0 4,636.8 4,954.3 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: IV IV IV IV IV 3,212.5 3,545.8 3,851.8 4,107.9 4,297.3 2,117.0 2,315.8 2,493.4 2,700.4 2,868.5 409.6 579.8 661.8 654.1 648.8 14.1 -25.8 -67.9 -103.2 -108.9 335.9 364.7 385.7 369.2 402.4 321.9 390.5 453.6 472.4 511.3 671.8 676.1 764.5 856.7 888.9 293.2 276.1 326.0 376.6 368.8 205.4 221.5 244.1 268.6 280.7 87.7 54.6 81.9 108.0 88.1 378.7 400.0 438.5 480.1 520.1 3,272.4 3,514.8 3,806.8 4,100.7 4,309.4 3,198.5 3,571.6 3,919.7 4,211.2 4,406.2 1987: III IV 4,566.6 4,665.8 3,055.9 3,083.3 692.8 749.7 -115.3 -114.6 458.0 482.6 573.4 597.2 933.2 947.5 384.5 388.1 300.2 296.8 84.3 91.3 548.7 559.4 4,557.1 4,602.5 4,681.9 4,780.4 1988: I II UI IV 4,739.8 4,838.5 4,926.9 5,017.3 3,148.1 3,204.9 3,263.4 3,324.0 728.8 748.4 771.1 752.8 -82.8 -74.9 -66.2 -70.8 521.6 532.5 556.8 579.7 604.3 607.5 623.0 650.5 945.7 960.1 958.6 1,011.4 374.1 377.1 367.5 406.4 297.4 298.0 296.1 300.5 76.7 79.1 71.4 105.9 571.6 583.0 591.0 604.9 4,709.8 4,809.2 4,882.3 4,998.7 4,822.5 4,913.4 4,993.1 5,088.1 1989: I II r 5,113.1 5,203.8 3,381.4 3,446.8 769.6 774.7 — 54.0 -52.7 605.6 623.2 659.6 675.9 1,016.0 1,034.9 399.0 407.8 298.7 302.0 100.4 105.8 617.0 627.1 5,085.4 5,176.5 5,167.1 5,256.5 1 GNP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and s Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS [Billions of 1982 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross private domestic investment Period Personal consumption expenditures Gross national product Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed Government purchases of goods and services Exports and imports of goods and services Change in business inventories Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total Total National defense Nondefense State and local Final sales Gross domestic purchases l 3,187.1 3,248.8 3,166.0 3,279.1 3,501.4 3,618.7 3,717.9 3,853.7 4,024.4 2,000.4 2,024.2 2,050,7 2,146.0 2,249.3 2,354.8 2,446.4 2,513.7 2,598.4 379.2 395.2 366.7 361.2 425.2 453.5 438.4 455.5 493.8 137.0 126.5 105.1 149.3 170.9 174.4 195.7 194.8 194.1 57.0 -6.9 23.9 49.4 26.3 -24.5 -19.9 -6.4 62.3 -84.0 9.1 - 104.3 5.6 -129.7 23.7 -115.7 27.9 -74.9 388.9 392.7 361.9 348.1 371.8 367.2 397.1 450.9 530.1 332.0 343.4 335.6 368.1 455.8 471.4 526.9 566.6 605.0 620.5 629.7 641.7 649.0 677.7 731.2 761.6 781.8 785.1 246.9 259.6 272.7 275.1 290.8 326.0 334.1 339.6 328.9 171.2 180.3 193.8 206.9 218.5 237.2 252.1 265.2 261.5 75.7 79.3 78.9 68.2 72.3 88.8 82.0 74.4 67 .4 373.6 370.1 369.0 373.9 387.0 405.2 427.5 442.1 456.2 3,194.0 3,225.0 3,190.5 3,285.5 3,439.1 3,609.6 3,712.4 3,830.0 3,996.5 3,130.1 3,199.4 3,139.7 3,299.1 3,585.4 3,723.0 3,847.6 3,969.4 4,099.3 3,159.3 3,365.1 3,535.2 3,662.4 3,733.6 2,078.7 2,191.9 2,281.1 2,386.9 2,477.8 352.3 390.4 444.4 460.9 435.7 115.8 159.9 169.6 179.4 200.3 -59.3 27.0 41.7 7.7 -20.8 11.7 -46.2 -94.8 -135.4 336.0 355.5 376.6 367.4 406.5 324.3 401.6 471.4 492.6 541.9 660.1 642.2 693.2 752.7 776.0 289.5 266.0 300.5 340.6 342.4 201.4 211.6 225.3 241.4 255.8 88.2 54.4 75.2 99.2 86.6 370.6 376.2 392.7 412.1 433.6 3,218.6 3,338.1 3,493.5 3,654.7 3,754.4 3,147.6 3,411.3 3,630.0 3,787.6 3,869.0 1987: m IV 3,872.8 3,935.6 2,536.5 2,532.3 472.8 472.7 192.1 191.9 6.8 -118.9 56.6 -109.8 461.3 484.1 580.2 593.9 783.5 792.1 340.7 344.9 270.6 266.7 70.1 78.2 442.8 447.2 3,866.0 3,879.0 3,991.7 4,045.5 1988: I m rv 3,974.8 4,010.7 4,042.7 4,069.4 2,570.8 2,586.8 2,608.1 2,627.7 483.6 497.8 501.0 492.7 189.1 194.2 195.1 198.1 34.3 21.5 37.5 18.3 -78.2 -72.6 -74.9 -73.8 517.4 519.7 531.9 551.4 595.6 592.3 606.9 625.2 775.1 783.0 775.9 806.4 323.8 327.9 319.8 343.9 263.0 262.5 258.8 261.6 60.8 65.4 61.0 82.3 451.3 455.1 456.1 462.5 3,940.5 3,989.2 4,005.2 4,051.0 4,052.9 4,083.3 4,117.6 4,143.2 1989- I TLr 4,106.8 4,134.0 2,641.0 2,655.3 501.0 511.0 195.6 189.1 24.5 19.0 -55.0 -52.5 569.7 585.2 624.6 637.7 799.7 812.0 335.5 345.4 254.4 256.6 81.1 88.9 464.2 466.5 4,082.3 4,115.0 4,161.8 4,186.5 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 19821983: 1984: 19851986: IV .. IV IV .. IV IV .... n 1 GNP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1982 = 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Personal consumption expenditures Period Gross national product Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Gross private domestic investment Services Nonresidential fixed Exports and imports of goods and services Government purchases of goods and services Federal Residential fixed Exports Imports Total National defense Nondefense State and local 85.7 94.0 100.0 103.9 107.7 110.9 113.8 117.4 121.3 86.6 94.6 100.0 104.1 108.1 111.6 114.3 119.8 124.5 89.2 95.7 100.0 102.1 103.8 104.8 105.6 108.1 110.1 89.4 96.9 100.0 102.1 105.0 107.5 107.3 112.1 116.3 83.9 92.6 100.0 106.2 111.6 116.8 122.4 129.0 134.9 85.1 93.4 100.0 98.8 97.9 97.7 99.3 97.5 98.7 89.4 96.6 100.0 102.2 106.0 108.3 111.1 116.2 119.7 90.2 97.5 100.0 101.3 103.2 101.0 99.8 99.5 103.3 96.0 101.6 100.0 97.4 97.1 95.2 93.7 99.0 102.7 84.3 93.3 100.0 103.1 106.8 109.0 109.7 112.4 115.9 83.4 92.9 100.0 103.6 107.2 109.2 110.2 111.1 114.0 86.4 94.3 100.0 101.4 105.5 108.2 108.1 116.7 123.6 86.2 93.4 100.0 104.7 109.9 114.9 118.3 123.2 328.8 101.7 105.4 109.0 112.2 115.1 101.8 105.7 109.3 113.1 115.8 100.7 103.1 104.1 104.7 106.2 101.0 103.1 105.8 108.7 107.8 102.7 108.3 113.5 119.0 124.9 100.7 98.3 97.9 97.9 100.0 99.1 103.1 107.2 109.0 112.4 100.0 102.6 102.4 100.5 99.0 99.3 97.2 96.2 95.9 94.4 101.3 103.8 108.5 110.6 107.7 102.0 104.7 108.3 111.3 109.7 99.5 100.3 108.9 108.8 101.7 102.2 106.3 111.7 116.5 120.0 1987- III 117.9 118.6 120.5 121.8 108.8 109.0 112.8 113.7 129.8 131.5 96.7 97.0 117.8 118.7 99.3 99.7 98.8 100.6 112.8 112.5 110.9 111.3 120.3 116.8 123.9 125.1 1988- I 119.2 120.6 121.9 123.3 122.5 123.9 125.1 126.5 109.3 109.6 110.2 111.2 114.0 115.9 117.1 118.2 132.7 134.2 135.6 137.3 97.7 97.8 98.4 100.6 119.5 119.5 119.6 120.4 100.8 102.5 104.7 105.1 101.5 102.6 102.7 104.0 115.5 115.0 114.9 118.2 113.1 113.5 114.4 114.9 126.2 121.0 117.1 128.7 126.7 128.1 129.6 130.8 1989: I II ' 124.5 125.9 128.0 129.8 111.2 110.8 120.0 123.3 139.0 140.4 100.4 100.3 122.1 124.2 106.3 106.5 105.6 106.0 118.9 118.1 117.4 117.7 123.8 119.1 132.9 134.4 1980 1981 1982 1983 .. 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1982: 19831984: 1985: 1986: IV IT IV IV . IV rv n Ill rv Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysi CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Personal consumption expenditures Gross national product Period 8.9 11.7 3.7 7.6 10.8 6.4 5.4 6.9 7.9 4.2 12.4 4.7 6.2 4.2 8.4 9.0 6.5 8.6 7.5 7.5 7.9 7.3 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 19821983: 19841985: 19861987: 1988: IV IV IV IV IV in IV I n m rv Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars . 1989- I n'. -0.2 1.9 -2.5 3.6 6.8 3.4 2.7 3.7 4.4 .6 7.3 1.7 3.0 2.3 5.3 6.6 4.0 3.7 3.2 2.7 3.7 2.7 Implicit price deflator 9.0 9.7 6.4 3.9 3.7 3.0 2.6 3.2 3.3 3.6 4.7 3.0 3.3 1.8 2.8 2.4 2.0 4.8 4.4 4.7 4.0 4.6 Chain price index Fixedweighted price index (1982 weights) 9.3 9.3 6.2 4.1 4.0 3.4 2.7 3.6 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.2 3.3 3.1 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.8 5.2 4.3 4.8 5.1 9.0 9.4 6.3 4.1 3.9 3.3 2.5 3.4 3.7 4.1 3.9 3.1 3.2 2.7 3.7 3.3 3.3 4.3 4.4 4.1 4.6 4.9 NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter. Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars Implicit price deflator 02 1.2 1.3 4.6 4.8 4.7 3.9 2.8 3.4 10.6 10.5 7.1 9.0 8.8 8.2 6.4 7.6 7.4 10.3 9.7 7.2 6.0 6.2 9.2 3.6 8.7 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.1 8.0 5.3 5.5 4.3 1.9 2.2 4.7 -.7 6.2 2.5 3.3 3.0 2.0 2.2 Chain price index 10.7 9.2 5.7 4.1 3.8 3.2 2.4 4.8 3.9 4.4 4.3 3.0 4.0 3.9 4.4 4.4 2.3 4.7 3.9 4.6 4.8 5.7 10.9 9.2 5.7 4.2 3.9 3.5 2.7 4.7 4.1 4.8 4.1 3.1 4.2 3.9 4.4 4.3 2.6 5.0 4.3 4.8 4.7 5.9 Fixedweighted price index (1982 weights) 10.5 9.0 5.6 4.2 4.0 3.5 2.7 4.7 4.3 4.8 4.1 3.2 4.3 3.9 4.4 4.5 2.6 5.1 4.6 4.9 4.8 6.4 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysi NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS-OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars) Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1982: 19831984: 19851986: 1987- IV IV IV IV IV HI IV 1988- I n m .. rv 1989- I p n 1 Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dollars) ' Total cost and profit 2 Indirect business taxes 3 Net interest Profits tax liability Profits after tax 4 1982 dollars 1,540.8 1,738.4 1,782.2 1,914.2 2,146.7 2,267.1 2,367.1 2,520.7 2,731.3 1,779.4 2,012.5 2,201.8 2,309.4 2,408.7 2,556.2 2,598.4 2,648.1 2,705.9 2,754.9 2,816.4 1,807.9 1,837.2 1,782.2 1,866.0 2,036.5 2,117.4 2,173.9 2,282.6 2,419.5 1,760.2 1,940.5 2,069.5 2,137.7 2,198.5 2,309.2 2,343.3 2,381.8 2,408.9 2,434.1 2,453.2 0.852 .946 1.000 1.026 1.054 1.071 1.089 1.104 1.129 1.011 1.037 1.064 1.080 1.096 1.107 1.109 1.112 1.123 1.132 1.148 0.095 .109 .125 .123 .118 .119 .123 .123 .123 .131 .120 .118 .120 .124 .123 .122 .122 .122 .122 .124 0.077 .090 .094 .098 .100 .103 .106 .106 .107 .096 .098 .102 .104 .106 .107 .106 .106 .107 .108 .108 0.581 .632 .676 .679 .687 .704 .721 .730 .744 .685 .680 .694 .713 .727 .726 .734 .732 .740 .746 .756 0.031 .037 .043 .037 .039 .038 .041 .047 .052 .042 .037 .042 .037 .042 .048 .050 .050 .051 .053 .055 0.068 .078 .063 .089 .109 .106 .098 .098 .103 0.037 .035 .026 .032 .036 .033 .035 .041 .044 .057 .103 .107 .106 .096 .103 .098 .102 .103 .102 .105 .023 .036 .032 .033 .038 .044 .041 .041 .044 .044 .045 0.031 .044 .037 .057 .073 .073 .064 .058 .059 .034 .066 .075 .072 .058 .060 .057 .060 .059 .058 .061 2,842.7 2,884.5 2,459.1 2,469.2 1.156 1.168 .125 .126 .110 .111 .768 .779 .057 .060 .096 .092 .045 .040 .051 .052 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1982 dol- This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. 3 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. 4 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Compensation of employees Current dollars lars, 3 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment Total Output per hour of all employees (1982 dollars) * Compensation per hour of all employees (dollars) * '18.524 r 18.643 ' 18.704 '19.217 ' 19.682 •"19.996 ' 20.456 ' 20.908 ' 2 1.446 T 18.770 '19.423 * 19.783 r 20.117 '20.646 '21.090 '21.192 '21.418 '21.453 '21.528 '21.506 ' 10.769 '11.777 '12.635 ' 13.039 ' 13.528 '14.069 '14.746 '15.252 '15.947 r ' 16.449 21.411 '12.865 '13.209 '13.735 '14.342 ' 15.005 '15.319 ' 15.546 '15.672 '15.871 '16.068 '16.259 * Data reflect revisions beginning 1986 of GNP and related items published July 27, 1989, and revisions due to changes in the labor input series. See Note, page 16 for details. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period National income Compensation of employees1 Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Farm 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1982198319841985: 19861987- IV IV IV IV IV TTT IV 1988- I n m IV . . 1989- I II" 1 Kental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment Nonfarm Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total Total Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment Capital consumption adjustment Net interest 2,518.4 2,719.5 3,028.6 3,234.0 3,412.6 3,665.4 3,972.6 2,548.2 2,851.5 3,096.1 3,312.8 3,473.1 3,694.8 3,799.9 1,907.0 2,020.7 2,213.9 2,367.5 2,511.4 2,690.0 2,907.6 1,931.1 2,092.7 2,272.7 2,426.7 2,571.2 2,709.8 2,778.7 24.6 12.4 30.5 30.2 34.7 41.6 39.8 28.5 19.3 28.1 29.2 37.2 33.6 48.4 150.9 178.4 204.0 225.6 247.2 270.0 288.0 159.8 188.6 209.7 235.0 252.0 271.6 280.3 13.6 13.2 8.5 9.2 11.6 13.4 15.7 15.8 12.4 5.6 7.8 13.5 11.5 14.3 150.0 213.7 266.9 282.3 282.1 298.7 328.6 146.1 248.5 266.9 291.4 275.2 313.0 308.2 159.2 196.7 234.2 222.6 228.3 247.8 281.8 150.7 223.4 224.6 228.4 226.1 261.5 255.8 169.6 207.6 240.0 224.3 221.6 266.7 306.8 164.1 231.5 226.1 235.0 234.1 281.0 276.2 -10.4 -10.9 -5.8 -1.7 6.7 -18.9 -25.0 -13.4 -8.1 -1.6 -6.6 -8.0 -19.4 -20.4 -9.2 17.0 32.7 59.7 53.8 50.9 46.8 -4.5 25.1 42.3 63.0 49.1 51.5 52.4 272.3 281.0 304.8 319.0 325.5 351.7 392.9 266.9 290.2 313.1 322.7 324.0 355.3 370.0 3,853.6 3,933.6 4,005.7 4,097.4 2.819.4 2,878.9 2,935.1 2,997.2 44.0 45.4 37.7 32.0 279.9 286.5 289.3 296.3 15.6 14.6 16.3 16.1 318.1 325.3 330.9 340.2 268.1 276.4 284.1 298.7 288.8 305.3 314.4 318.8 -20.7 28 8 -30.4 -20.1 49.9 48.9 46.9 41.5 376.6 383.0 396.4 415.7 300.3 304.2 r 11.8 9.7 316.3 309.1 279.7 276.9 318.0 297.6 4,185.2 4,249.9 3,061.7 3,118.0 r r 59.0 50.7 T Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) T -38.3 — 20.7 r 36.6 32.3 436.1 458.1 r Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nondurable goods Durable goods Period Total personal consumption expenditures Total durable goods Motor vehicles and parts Furniture and household equipment Other Total nondurable goods Food Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil Other Services Retail sales of new passenger cars (millions of units) Domestics Imports 1982.... 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1982- IV 1983: IV 1984- IV 1985- IV 1986- IV 1987: m IV 2,050.7 2,234.5 2,430.5 2,629.0 2,797.4 3,010.8 3,235.1 2,117.0 2,315.8 2,493.4 2,700.4 2,868.5 3,055.9 3,083.3 252.7 289.1 335.5 372.2 406.0 421.0 455.2 263.8 310.0 346.7 373.2 422.0 439.3 424.5 108.9 130.4 157.4 179.1 196.2 195.5 211.6 115.7 144.4 162.3 173.8 201.1 211.3 196.3 95.7 107.1 118.8 129.9 139.7 149.1 162.0 99.1 112.4 122.7 134.7 143.8 151.0 151.4 48.1 51.6 59.3 63.2 70.0 76.5 81.6 49.0 53.2 61.8 64.7 77.1 77.0 76.7 771.0 816.7 867.3 911.2 942.0 998.1 1,052.3 786.6 837.9 879.6 932.7 952.1 1,006.0 1,015.4 398.8 421.9 448.5 471.6 500.0 529.2 559.7 407.0 430.8 456.1 482.5 511.9 531.7 536.8 124.4 135.1 146.7 156.4 166.8 177.2 186.8 126.5 141.1 149.8 160.6 168.7 178.9 180.6 89.1 90.2 90.0 90.6 73.5 75.2 76.8 89.8 91.9 89.0 91.0 66.0 76.8 76.7 158.7 169.5 182.1 192.6 201.7 216.6 229.0 163.4 174.0 184.7 198.5 205.5 218.6 221.3 1,027.0 1,128.7 1,227.6 1,345.6 1,449.5 1,591.7 1,727.6 1,066.5 1,167.9 1,267.1 1,394.5 1,494.4 1,610.6 1,643.3 5.8 6.8 8.0 8.2 8.2 7.1 7.5 6.0 7.4 7.7 7.0 7.7 7.8 6.6 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.3 1988: I n in 3,148.1 3,204.9 3,263.4 3,324.0 446.4 454.6 452.5 467.4 210.3 212.5 208.4 215.3 156.9 162.2 162.7 166.1 79.2 79.9 81.4 86.0 1,022.2 1,042.4 1,066.2 1,078.4 542.5 554.5 567.8 574.1 180.8 183.6 188.9 193.9 74.3 76.9 78.3 77.6 224.5 227.5 231.2 232.8 1,679.5 1,707.9 1,744.7 1,778.2 7.7 7.5 7.4 7.5 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 n 3,381.4 3,446.8 466.4 471.0 211.7 212.9 172.1 173.7 82.6 84.4 1,098.3 1,122.0 587.3 592.8 195.0 199.2 77.9 88.8 238.1 241.2 1,816.7 1,853.8 7.0 7.3 2.8 3.0 IV 1989- I r Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $32.8 billion (annual rate) in July, following an increase of $20.5 billion in June. Wages and salaries increased $25.4 billion in July, compared with an increase of $17.6 billion in June. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RAT1O SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 5,000 4,000 4,000 -- r-r""' . 3,000 1 3,000 TOTA L PERSONAL Ih4 COME __ . ^ ---*" ' --"" 2,000 2,000 "~"\ __----""" . _ _ — • - • - — WAGE AS D SALARY DISE URSEMENTS — 1,400 1,400 ' \"~'\" 1 C3THER INCOME 800 800 -' • —- ~"~T~" TRANSFER PAYMENTS ^""~~ 400 _..-- — — • ,. / —— |Illl|lllll tmilmii Illllllllll Illllllllll 1981 1982 1983 1984 400 miilum iimhim iiii||ini| miilmti miilmu 1986 1985 1988 1987 SEASONALLY ADJUS TED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARIME IT OF COMMERCE 1989 COUNCIL OF CONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1980 1981 2,258 4 2 5209 2,670 8 2 8386 3,1087 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988: personal income 3 325 3 3,526 2 3 777 6 4,064 5 July .. Aug Sent ... Oct .Nov Dee 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr * May r July" Wage and salary disbursements 1 1 3720 1 5103 1 586 1 1 676 6 1 8386 1 9754 20948 2 2494 24290 4079 8 4,094.2 2 443 4 4 118 6 4 1804 4 1689 4 206 3 2 465 6 4 273 1 4 319 5 2447 7 2497 1 1384 1503 163 6 173 6 182 9 187 6 199 3 212 8 228 9 229 3 231 1 232 9 234 7 2 '501 6 2 516 7 2365 2 5454 239 7 241 3 242 9 244 4 2 557 3 43607 2 5794 4 386 8 4 416 2 2601 3 2 603 5 2 621 1 4449 0 26465 43957 Proprietor ' income 3 Other labor income l z 238 2 2460 247 5 249 1 Farm 205 30 7 24 6 12 4 305 30 2 347 41 6 39 8 41 0 386 33 4 47 1 19 5 29 4 48 0 65 9 63 0 56 1 53 7 42 3 36 1 1 The total ol wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. * Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 4 With capital consumption adjustment. Nonfarm 160 1 156 1 150 9 1784 2040 225 6 247 2 2700 2880 288 5 288 5 2909 2958 295 7 297 4 299 6 3006 300 8 304 6 303 5 304 7 3074 Less: income of persons 4 66 13 3 13 6 13 2 85 92 11 6 134 15 7 15 6 16 5 16 7 16 4 16 1 16 0 13 8 11 8 99 97 97 96 96 dividend income interest income 52 9 61 3 271 9 63 9 68 7 75 5 78 7 85 8 920 102 2 102 4 103 9 104 7 105 8 106 5 106 9 1084 109 4 110 3 111 0 111 4 111 8 112 8 369 7 3354 393 1 444 7 4780 493 2 523 2 571 1 570 1 576 0 583 0 590 8 598 6 6064 616 5 628 9 641 5 6484 655 2 661 8 6682 payments 5 324 7 368 1 410 6 442 6 456 6 489 8 521 5 5482 584 7 585 7 587 9 588 7 592 2 593 5 595 6 610 7 614 2 624 2 623 9 625 5 631 1 634 3 5 contributions for social insurance 88 6 104 5 112 3 120 1 132 7 149 3 161 9 172 9 1949 196 1 195 9 197 2 199 5 199 1 200 1 209 0 209 8 211 3 212 6 212 7 213 8 2150 personal income e 2 215 8 2465 6 2 618 7 2 799 0 3052 1 3 271 3 3 469.4 3 714 7 4 003.7 4017 9 4 034.6 4064 1 4 112 3 4 1284 4 155 9 4 4 4 4 4 2040 2324 2765 3073 3205 4 352 3 4 391.1 Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. Persona! income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other fa&or income, and agricultural net interest. B Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable personal income was about unchanged in the second quarter of 1989. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 4,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 4,000 1,400 1,400 DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 1 6,000 16,000 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME ^,-— 14,000 14,000 CURRENT DOLLARS V. _^— • _—- 12,000 r~--10,000 ' 1 -r -—'" __r ^ 12,000 ..... • \ 10,000 982 DOLLAR' ' 8,000 8,000 6,000 1 1 1 1 1981 1 1 1 1982 1 1 1983 ! 1 1 1984 < 1 1985 1 1 1 1 1 1986 1 1 1987 ' SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Persona! income Less: Personal tax and nontax payments i Equals: Disposable personal income 2,258.5 2,520.9 2,670.8 2,838.6 3,108.7 3,325.3 3,526.2 3,777.6 4,064.5 340.5 393.3 409.3 410.5 440.2 486.6 512.9 571.7 586.6 1,918.0 2,127.6 2,261.4 2,428.1 2,668.6 2,838.7 3,013.3 3,205.9 3,477.8 1 1 1988 1 1 1 1989 6,000 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Less: Personal outlays I Equals: Personal saving Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (billions) Per capita disposable personal income Current dollars Billions of dollars 1980 1981... 1982.... 1983.. 1984.... 1985... 1986 1987... 1988 1 1982 dollars Per capita personal consumption expenditures Current dollars 1982 dollars Dollars 1,781.1 1,968.1 2407.5 2,297.4 2^504.5 2,713.3 2^888.5 3,104.1 3^333.1 136.9 159.4 153.9 130.6 164.1 125.4 124.9 101.8 144.7 2,214.3 2,248.6 2^261.5 2,331.9 2469.8 2,542.8 2^635.3 2,676.6 2^793.2 8,421 9,243 9,724 10,340 11,257 11,861 12,469 13,140 14,116 Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population, including Armed Forces abroad (thousands) " Percent — .5 7.1 7.5 6.8 2.1 4.9 2.0 2.6 .6 3.3 5.4 6.1 4.4 4.1 3.2 4.2 227,754 230,182 232,549 234,829 237,051 239,322 241,660 243,985 246,378 9,722 7,607 8,320 8,818 9,515 10^253 10,985 Ili576 12,340 13,131 8,783 8,794 8,818 9,139 9,489 9,839 10,123 10,303 10,546 — 1.1 9,769 9^724 9,930 10^419 10^625 10^905 10,970 Ili337 .5 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 2,729.2 2,941.8 3,188.3 3,399.1 3,597.8 411.1 413.9 459.7 499.6 534.4 2,318.1 2,527.9 2,728.6 2,899.5 3,063.4 2,174.9 2,382.5 2,571.3 2,787.7 2,961.4 143.1 145.4 157.3 111.7 102.0 2,276.1 2,392.7 2,496.3 2,562.8 2,646.2 9,929 10,725 11,467 12,068 12,629 9,749 10,151 10,491 10,667 10,909 9,068 9,825 10,479 11,240 11,825 8,904 9,299 9,587 9,935 10,214 1.2 9.1 1.7 3.3 .3 6.2 5.8 5.8 3.9 3.3 233,466 235,707 237,946 240,257 242,579 1987: m.... IV 3,795.5 3,908.7 572.0 589.2 3,223.5 3,319.4 3,149.9 3,177.6 73.6 141.8 2,675.6 2,726.2 13,196 13,552 10,953 11,130 12,510 12,588 10,384 10,339 5.6 6.6 2.3 4.3 244,274 244,936 1988: I 3,948.5 4,026.6 4,097.6 4,185.2 572.2 590.7 585.9 597.8 3,376.4 3,435.9 3,511.7 3,587.4 3,244.4 3,301.9 3,362.1 3,424.0 131.9 134.0 149.6 163.4 2,151.2 2,773.3 2,806.4 2,835.9 13,154 13,966 14,235 14,504 11,232 11,273 11,377 11,466 12,824 13,028 13,229 13,439 10,413 10,515 10,573 10,624 3.1 1.5 3.7 3.2 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.6 245,416 246,008 246,685 247,343 4,317.8 4,399.6 628.3 652.6 3,689.5 3,747.0 3,483.8 3,549.9 205.7 197.2 2,881.7 2,886.6 14,884 15,081 11,625 11,618 13,641 13,873 10,654 10,687 5.7 -.2 5.6 5.3 247,890 248,456 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: IV IV IV IV IV n m.... IV 1989: I r n .... 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the first quarter of 1989, according to current estimates, gross farm income rose $18.8 billion (annual rate) and net farm income rose $21.5 billion. BULKDNS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO S CALE) 240 200 ,— 1 160 ~^- «__ ' " -^*" 240 200 "^ 160 f / 120 GRC3SS 120 FARM INC(JMb 80 80 An 40 40 20 20 10 10 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income ot farm operators from {arming Net farm income Gross farm income Period Cash marketing receipts Total ' Total 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 .. 1987 1988 1986: m IV 1987: I 149.3 166.4 163.5 153.0 174.9 166.2 159.8 169.8 177.5 .. n m IV 1988: I n m IV 1989- I 1 .. 158.1 162.6 173.6 162.5 168.9 173.7 175.3 182.5 174.9 177.1 195.9 139.7 141.7 142.6 136.6 142.4 144.0 135.1 138.1 151.3 137.8 137.7 134.9 134.4 146.5 136.6 144.2 148.6 160.2 152.0 153.2 Livestock and products Value of inventory changes 2 -6.3 6.5 — 1.4 10 9 6.3 24 -2.8 6 -4.3 23 -1.9 68.0 69.2 70.3 69.4 73.0 69.8 71.5 76.2 78.8 71.7 72.5 72.3 67.1 69.5 74.2 63.6 61.9 72.5 77.3 73.0 60.5 64.7 73.3 77.0 79.6 75.1 81.7 75.2 78.2 80.2 61.6 57.4 66.9 61.5 62.5 73.4 82.0 71.8 4 -1.9 -3.2 -3.8 47 -5.4 70.2 4.7 83.0 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. Crops Production expenses 3 Q .1 Current dollars 133.1 139.4 140.0 140.4 142.7 134.0 122.3 123.5 132.1 121.1 120.7 120.3 124.1 125.0 124.6 126.7 129.3 135.4 137.0 134.3 1982 dollars * 16.1 26.9 23.5 12.7 32.2 32.3 37.5 46.3 45.4 37.0 41.9 53.4 38.4 43.9 49.0 48.7 53.2 39.5 40.1 61.6 Income in current dollars divided by the GNP implicit price deflator. NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Credit Corporation loans and operator households. Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce. 18.8 28.6 23.5 12.2 29.9 29.1 32.9 39.4 37.4 32.3 36.4 46.0 32.8 31.3 41.3 40.8 44.1 32.4 32.6 49.2 CORPORATE PROFITS In the second quarter of 1989, according to preliminary estimates, corporate profits before tax fell $20.4 billion (annual rate) and after-tax profits fell $9.3 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 360 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 360 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 320 320 \ /^ 280 240 200 280 v -f~\ ^ f 120 \ s *"'S0 i S. ., , ,r ^'''' s — -- ,._>-. ../' s 160 -X S~~" 120 X rA — ' 80 TAX LIABILITY ' -v '-" \ \ 40 -^ — -— -^ ' V 200 -^ PR :>FITS AFTER T/tf '' ^, \v 80 240 ^ • ~\\ S r^] S-^ /" / \ 160 PROFITS BEFORE TAX 40 UNDISTI IBUTED PROFI" S 1 I 1 1982 1981 I I I 1983 1 1 1 1 1984 1 1 1 1 1 1986 1985 1 1 I 1 1987 1 1 1988 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1 1 1 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment 1 Profits after tax Domestic industries Period Nonfinancial Total 2 Total 1980 1981 . 1982 1983... 1984 1985... 1986 1987... 1988 Financial Total 3 Manufacturing Profits before tax liability Tax Wholesale and retail trade Total Dividends Undistributed profits Inventory valuation adjustment 194.0 202.3 159.2 196.7 234.2 222.6 228.3 247.8 281.8 159.6 173.8 131.2 166.6 203.3 191.4 195.2 208.7 238.2 21.0 16.5 11.8 18.1 13.0 22.8 32.0 30.5 29.8 138.6 157.3 119.4 148.5 190.3 168.6 163.2 178.2 208.4 77.1 88.5 58.0 70.1 88.8 79.7 59.5 76.6 98.4 21.6 32.5 34.6 38.9 51.2 44.1 44.1 41.1 40.1 237.1 226.5 169.6 207.6 240.0 224.3 221.6 266.7 306.8 84.8 81.1 63.1 77.2 93.9 96.4 106.3 124.7 137.9 152.3 145.4 106.5 130.4 146.1 127.8 115.3 142.0 168.9 54.7 63.6 66.9 71.5 79.0 83.3 91.3 98.7 110.4 97.6 81.8 39.6 58.9 67.0 44.6 24.0 43.3 58.5 -43.1 -24.2 -10.4 -10.9 -5.8 -1.7 6.7 -18.9 -25.0 19821983: 19841985: 1986- TV TV TV TV IV 150.7 223.4 224.6 228.4 226.1 121.6 190.7 193.9 193.6 193.4 18.7 15.5 13.6 26.0 28.6 102.9 175.2 180.3 167.6 164.8 46.8 88.6 79.8 83.8 64.8 33.6 43.1 51.8 38.5 41.0 164.1 231.5 226.1 235.0 234.1 59.8 88.1 87.0 99.8 113.1 104.3 143.4 139.2 135.2 121.0 68.5 73.9 80.8 84.0 93.6 35.8 69.5 58.4 51.2 27.4 -13.4 -8.1 -1.6 -6.6 -8.0 1987: HI IV 261.5 255.8 222.6 211.8 30.2 29.9 192.4 181.9 87.3 84.5 43.2 41.2 281.0 276.2 132.7 127.3 148.3 148.9 100.0 102.8 48.3 46.1 -19.4 -20.4 I 268.1 276.4 284.1 298.7 225.7 235.8 239.0 252.2 27.7 29.7 31.6 30.1 198.0 206.1 207.3 222.1 94.6 98.2 95.1 105.5 42.2 37.3 39.2 41.8 288.8 305.3 314.4 318.8 129.0 138.4 141.2 143.2 159.9 166.9 173.2 175.6 105.7 108.6 112.2 115.2 54.2 58.3 61.1 60.4 -20.7 -28.8 -30.4 — 20.1 279.7 276.9 233.1 228.5 29.3 27.9 203.9 200.6 96.5 34.1 318.0 297.6 144.4 133.3 173.6 164.3 118.5 120.9 55.1 43.4 1988: n m TV 1989- I H" 1 2 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. 3 Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. r -38.3 -20.7 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to revised estimates for the second quarter of 1989, nonresidential fixed investment rose $9.5 billion (annual rate) and residential investment fell $4.0 billion. There was a $27.3 billion increase in inventories, following an increase of $27.7 billion in the first quarter of 1989. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 800 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC 600 / 500 / / r—^\^} "^ 600 - NONRESIDENTI/ 1 Fl> ED INVESTMEh•JT 500 -"•'" / "^1 ""*----.. — ' ..- — \~." --'""" 700 — ^—1 >l 400 ^~l /^\ INVFSTMFNT 700 800 '--"' 400 — ^ S* RESIDENTIAL ' Fl>(ED INVESTMEh41 300 V 200 300 —- ~~ 200 - ,*~~ +>* CHA NGE IN BUSIN ESS INVENTORIES _.*- 100 / 100 .. X%. ^^% 'V f* 0 r — --/ ,/"" \f -100 1 1 1 1981 1 1 1 1982 \ \ \ 1983 1 1 I 1984 1 1 1 1985 i i i 1986 1 1 1 1987 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1 1 1 1 1 1 1988 1989 -100 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Change in business inventories Fixed investment Period Gross private domestic investment 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986.. 1987 1988 1982: 1983: 1984: 198519861987: IV IV IV IV IV TTT IV 1988- I TJ m IV 1989: I Hr Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Nonresidential Total Total Structures Producers' durable equipment Residential Total Nonfarm 437.0 515.5 447.3 502.3 664.8 643.1 659.4 699.9 750.3 445.3 491.5 471.8 509.4 597.1 631.8 652.5 670.6 719.6 322.8 369.2 366.7 356.9 416.0 442.9 435.2 444.3 487.2 113.9 138.5 143.3 124.0 141.1 153.2 139.0 133.8 140.3 208.9 230.7 223.4 232.8 274.9 289.7 296.2 310.5 346.8 122.5 122.3 105.1 152.5 181.1 188.8 217.3 226.4 232.4 83 24.0 245 -7.1 67.7 11.3 6.9 29.3 30.6 -2.4 18.3 -23.1 .4 60.5 14.6 8.6 30.5 34.2 409.6 579.8 661.8 654.1 648.8 469.5 548.8 616.8 646.8 660.9 354.9 383.9 435.0 451.3 435.8 137.6 127.4 146.6 155.9 133.7 217.3 256.5 288.4 295.5 302.2 114.7 164.9 181.8 195.5 225.1 -59.9 31.0 45.0 7.2 -12.2 -51.1 21.3 41.3 23.7 -8.0 692.8 749.7 683.2 686.3 457.0 458.6 137.3 138.9 319.8 319.7 226.2 227.7 9.5 63.3 14.0 61.3 728.8 748.4 771.1 752.8 698.7 719.1 726.5 734.1 472.7 487.1 493.2 495.8 137.1 139.9 142.0 142.5 335.6 347.2 351.3 353.3 226.1 232.1 233.2 238.4 30.0 29.3 44.6 18.7 24.2 30.4 41.5 40.8 769.6 174.1 742.0 141.4 503.1 512.6 144.7 142.8 358.5 869.8 238.8 234.8 27.7 21.3 19.1 23.8 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT According to the Commerce Department April-May survey, business spending for new plant and equipment is expected to rise 9.9 percent in 1989, following a rise of 10.3 percent in 1988. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 500 400 300 200 40 40 1981 J/ SURVEYED QUARTERLY _£/'SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Addenda Industries surveyed quarterly Nonmanufacturing Manufacturing Period All industries Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total 1 Mining Transportation Public utilities Commercial and other Total nonfarm business 2 Nonmanufacturing Manufacturing Total Surveyed quarterly 1980.... 1981 1982.... 1983 1984 1985.... 1986 1987.... 1988 1989 4 . 282.80 315.22 310.58 304.78 354.44 387.13 379.47 389.67 429.67 472.08 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.48 142.69 145.90 165.70 179.35 55.36 59.81 55.35 53.08 66.24 73.27 69.14 71.01 78.12 82.13 56.96 66.73 65.33 63.12 72.58 80.21 73.56 74.88 87.58 97.22 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.65 236.78 243.78 263.97 292.72 15.99 21.39 20.05 15.19 16.86 15.88 11.22 11.39 12.67 12.00 16.60 15.84 14.79 13.97 16.52 18.02 18.80 18.85 21.35 24.86 37.74 41.21 45.43 44.96 47.48 48.81 46.38 44.88 46.51 50.77 100.14 110.24 109.63 114.45 134.75 150.94 160.38 168.65 183.44 205.09 1987: 394.54 406.82 148.20 152.21 71.96 72.28 76.24 79.92 246.34 254.61 11.81 12.32 19.19 19.34 45.29 46.38 170.05 176.56 148.20 152.21 246.34 254.61 1988: I 412.02 426.94 436.01 443.71 158.60 161.69 168.91 173.61" 75.70 76.87 79.48 80.42 82.90 84.82 89.43 93.18 253.43 265.25 267.10 270.11 12.59 13.26 12.47 12.35 20.43 20.72 22.17 22.10 44.61 45.43 46.70 49.27 175.79 185.83 185.76 186.38 158.60 161.69 168.91 173.61 253.43 265.25 267.10 270.11 1989- I 4 n4 457.64 467.50 478.79 484.38 175.83 177.10 182.70 181.79 81.71 80.21 84.08 82.54 94.12 96.89 98.61 99.25 281.81 290.40 296.09 302.59 12.12 13.08 12.21 20.60 23.24 23.11 25.85 27.24 50.26 51.42 50.18 53.24 196.20 202.79 207.86 213.51 175.83 177.10 182.70 181.79 281.81 290.40 296.09 302.59 m IV n in rv m4 IV 1 Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and real estate, which, effective with the April-May 1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ("nonmanufacturing surveyed annually") for data for these industries. 2 "All industries" plus the part of nonmanufacturing that is surveyed annually. 10 314.47 349.26 347.47 343.35 398.99 431.94 427.23 440.66 482.40 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.48 142.69 145.90 165.70 179 35 202.15 222.72 226.79 227.15 260.16 278.46 284.54 294.77 316.70 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.65 236.78 243.78 263.97 292.72 Surveyed annuallyS 31.68 34.04 36.89 38.56 44.55 44.81 47.75 50.99 52.73 3 Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and real estate. 4 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in April-May 1989, corrected for biases. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES In July, civilian employment fell 82,000 and unemployment fell 64,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 124 124 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 120 120 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE 116 116 112 112 108 108 104 104 CIVILIAN " EMPLOYMENT 100 100 96 96 X- -^ -•*, f* 12 12 8 UNEMPLOYMENT 1982 1981 1983 1984 11111(11111 1985 4 1987 1986 1988 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 i 11 1989 0 ' ! 6 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Resident Armed Forces NSA Labor force including resident Armed Forces 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986' 1987 1988 169,349 171,775 173,939 175,891 178,080 179,912 182,293 184,490 186,322 1,604 1,645 1,668 1,676 1,697 1,706 1,706 1,737 1,709 108,544 110,315 111,872 113,226 115,241 117,167 119,540 121,602 123,378 100,907 102,042 101,194 102,510 106,702 108,856 111,303 114,177 116,677 106,940 108,670 110,204 111,550 113,544 115,461 117,834 119,865 121,669 99,303 100,397 99,526 100,834 105,005 107,150 109,597 112,440 114,968 3,364 3,368 3,401 3,383 3,321 3,179 3,163 3,208 3,169 95,938 97,030 96,125 97,450 101,685 103,971 106,434 109,232 111,800 1988: July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 186,402 186,522 186,666 186,801 186,949 187,098 1,673 1,692 1,704 1,687 1,705 1,696 123,331 123,692 123,688 123,778 124,215 124,259 116,707 116,895 117,074 117,260 117,652 117,705 121,658 122,000 121,984 122,091 122,510 122,563 115,034 115,203 115,370 115,573 115,947 116,009 3,060 3,142 3,176 3,238 3,238 3,193 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July 187,340 187,461 187,581 187,708 187,854 187,995 188,149 1,696 1,684 1,684 1,684 1,673 1,666 1,666 125,124 124,865 124,948 125,343 125,283 125,768 125,622 118,407 118,537 118,820 118,797 118,888 119,207 119,125 123,428 123,181 123,264 123,659 123,610 124,102 123,956 116,711 116,853 117,136 117,113 117,215 117,541 117,459 3,300 3,223 3,206 3,104 3,112 3,096 3,219 Period Employment including resident Armed Forces Nonagricultural Civilian labor force Agricultural Total 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc. 2 Civilian labor force (or employment) aa percent of civilian noninstitutional population. Unemployment Civilian employment Noninstitutional population including resident Armed Forces NSA Civilian Labor force participation rate (percent) 2 Employment/ population ratio (percent) 2 Total 15 weeks and over 4,064 4,499 5,852 5,997 5,512 5,334 5,345 5,122 4,965 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,237 7,425 6,701 1,871 2,285 3,485 4,210 2,737 2,305 2,232 1,983 1,610 63.8 63.9 64.0 64.0 64.4 64.8 65.3 65.6 65.9 59.2 59.0 57.8 57.9 59.5 60.1 60.7 61.5 62.3 111,974 112,061 112,194 112,335 112,709 112,816 5,102 4,972 4,862 4,727 4,819 5,033 6,624 6,797 6,614 6,518 6,563 6,554 1,619 1,568 1,554 1,502 1,495 65.9 66.0 66.0 66.0 66.1 66.1 62.3 62.3 62.4 62.4 62.6 62.6 113,411 113,630 113,930 114,009 114,102 114,445 114,240 4,837 4,697 4,709 4,930 4,609 4,801 4,505 6,716 6,328 6,128 6,546 6,395 6,561 6,497 1,512 1,304 1,310 1,426 1,313 1,258 1,472 66.5 66.3 66.3 66.5 66.4 66.6 66.5 62.9 62.9 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.1 63.0 Total Part time for economicl reasons 1,636 'Data beginning January 1986 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of change w estimation procedures. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In July, the overall unemployment rate was unchanged, at 5.2 percent, and the civilian unemployment rate fell slightly, to 5.2 percent. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 10 1989 'UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 .. Unemployment rate, all workers * All civilian workers Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over 7.0 7.5 9.5 9.5 7.4 7.1 6.9 6.1 5.4 7.1 7.6 9.7 9.6 7.5 7.2 7.0 6.2 5.5 5.9 6.3 8.8 8.9 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.4 4.8 6.4 6.8 8.3 8.1 6.8 6.6 6.2 5.4 4.9 17.8 19.6 23.2 22.4 18.9 18.6 18.3 16.9 15.3 By sex and age By selected groups By race Both sexes 16-19 years Black and other Black Experienced wage and salary workers 6.3 6.7 8.6 8.4 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.3 4.7 13.1 14.2 17.3 17.8 14.4 13.7 13.1 11.6 10.4 14.3 15.6 18.9 19.5 15.9 15.1 14.5 13.0 11.7 6.9 7.3 9.3 9.2 7.1 6.8 6.6 5.8 5.2 4.2 4.3 6.5 6.5 4.6 4.3 4.4 3.9 3.3 9.2 10.4 11.7 12.2 10.3 10.4 9.8 9.2 8.1 6.9 7.3 9.6 White Married men, spouse present Women who maintain families Fulltime workers Parttime workers Labor force time lost (percent) 2 9.5 7.2 6.8 6.6 5.8 5.2 8.8 9.4 10.5 10.4 9.3 9.3 9.1 8.4 7.6 7.9 8.5 11.0 10.9 8.6 8.1 7.9 7.1 6.3 1988: July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 5.4 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.3 4.5 4.9 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.7 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 15.1 15.4 15.5 15.0 14.1 14.8 4.7 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 10.1 10.0 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.0 11.5 11.4 10.9 11.2 11.2 11.6 5.1 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.0 3.1 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.1 8.5 7.5 8.1 7.9 7.7 8.2 5.0 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.1 8.0 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.1 7.0 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.1 6.2 6.3 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June.... July 5.4 5.1 4.9 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.1 5.0 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.2 4.6 4.5 4.2 4.6 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.7 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 16.4 14.8 13.7 14.4 15.2 15.6 14.7 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.6 10.6 10.6 9.8 9.6 9.5 10.3 9.6 12.0 11.9 10.9 10.8 11.0 11.9 10.9 5.2 4.8 4.7 5.1 4.9 5.0 5.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.9 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.6 8.3 7.9 8.7 5.0 4.8 4.8 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.9 7.9 7.3 6.2 7.2 6.9 7.7 7.2 6.2 5.9 5.8 6.0 5.9 6.1 6.0 1 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces. 2 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons fta percent of potentially available labor force hours. 12 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In July, the percentages of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 5-14 weeks fell and the percentages for 15-26 weeks and for 27 weeks and over rose. Both the mean and the median duration of unemployment rose. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 70 DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT 60 - 50 JOB LOSERS 40 40 30 — •=. REENTRANTS 30 20 20 JOB LEAVERS 10 - 10 NEW ENTRANTS 1989 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Reason for unemployment: percent distribution Duration of unemployment Period Unemployment (thousands) Percent distribution State programs Number of weeks Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Median 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,237 7,425 6,701 43.1 41.7 36.4 33.3 39.2 42.1 41.9 43.7 46.0 32.3 30.7 31.0 27.4 28.7 30.2 31.0 29.6 30.0 13.8 13.6 16.0 15.4 12,9 12.3 12.7 12.7 12.0 10.7 14.0 16.6 23.9 19.1 15.4 14.4 14.0 12.1 11.9 13.7 15.6 20.0 18.2 15.6 15.0 14.5 13.5 6.5 6.9 8.7 10.1 7.9 6.8 6.9 6.5 5.9 51.7 51.6 58.7 58.4 51.8 49.8 48.9 48.0 46.1 6,624 6,797 6,614 6,518 6,563 6,554 44.9 46.8 47.4 47.4 47.6 46.2 30.7 29.0 28.8 28.5 29.5 31.1 12.4 12.3 11.8 12.2 12.0 11.5 11.9 11.9 12.1 11.9 10.9 11.2 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.4 12.6 12.8 6.2 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.8 6,716 6,328 6,128 6,546 6,395 6,561 6,497 47.0 50.6 49.4 47.2 47.7 50.4 48.1 30.7 29.1 29.4 31.1 31.7 30.4 29.4 11.2 10.4 10.5 10.5 11.0 10.0 12.9 11.1 10.0 10.7 11.3 9.6 9.1 9.6 12.7 12.1 12.4 12.7 11.8 11.1 12.0 5.7 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.5 5.6 Job leavers Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) 1 Reentrants New entrants 11.7 11.2 7.9 7.7 9.6 10.6 12.3 13.0 14.7 25.2 25.4 22.3 22.5 25.6 27.1 26.2 26.6 27.0 11.4 11.9 11.1 11.3 13.0 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.2 3,350 3,047 4,061 3,396 2,476 2,611 2,650 2,332 2,056 488 460 583 438 377 396 378 328 306 3,837 3,410 4,594 3,775 2,561 2,693 2,746 2,401 2,125 46.1 46.2 46.7 45.9 46.2 46.5 13.8 14.6 14.9 15.3 14.7 15.1 28.1 27.3 26.8 27.2 26.9 26.2 11.9 11.9 11.5 11.6 12.2 12.1 2,082 2,069 2,025 1,972 1,989 2,032 327 305 293 296 301 309 2,052 1,914 1,734 1,677 1,857 2,205 46.4 45.2 46.0 45.7 42.7 42.0 44.3 14.7 15.5 14.4 15.0 17.5 15.5 15.3 27.3 27.3 28.1 29.0 29.1 31.2 29.4 11.6 12.0 11.6 10.3 10.7 11.3 11.0 2,061 2,105 2,143 2,105 2,063 2,134 2,216 293 309 323 300 317 335 339 2,685 2,695 2,567 2,221 1,960 1,941 Job losers Weekly average, thousands 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988- July Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989: Jan Feb Mar May July 1 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (OCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 169,000 in July. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) 110 26 SERVICES 24 ^s" — V1 100 - ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS ^ f+** ^ — 1 90 22 ^.-^' .-'" — 80 20 Rl ;TAIL - SERVICE-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 70 ~ 18 ^-^ " TRADE \— - OVERNMEN r n*,H i| mill nit •jwrifflfi 'iTfi MM 1 1 1 60 ,—• r 50 40 GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 30 20 fyiiiilimi 1985 Illlllllllll 1987 1986 1988 1989 1985 1989 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers; l seasonally adjusted] _ Goods-producing industries Period Total nonagricultural employment Service-producing industries Manufacturing Total 2 Construction Transportation and public utilities Total Durable goo s Nondurable goods 8,098 8,061 7*.741 7,702 7,873 7,770 7*,734 7,830 7*967 64,748 65,659 65,753 66,866 69 769 72,660 74*,967 77,492 8o',335 5,146 Total 1980 1981 .... 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 90,406 91,156 89,566 90,200 94,496 97^519 99,525 102,200 105,584 25,658 25,497 23',813 23,334 24,727 24^859 24,558 24,708 25,249 4,346 4,188 s',905 3,948 4,383 4^673 4*816 4,967 s',125 20,285 20,170 18,434 19,378 19^260 18*965 19,024 19',403 12,187 12,109 11*039 10,732 11,505 11,490 11*230 11,194 11*437 1988: July.... Aug.... Sept.... Oct Nov.... Dec 105,768 105,954 106,207 106,475 106,824 107,097 25,323 25,303 25,313 25,384 25,460 25,513 5,150 5,153 5,163 5,162 5,191 5,213 19,448 19,425 19,431 19,505 19,557 19,589 11,475 11,462 11,464 11,509 11,545 11,565 7,973 7,963 7,967 7,996 8,012 8,024 80,445 80,651 80,894 81,091 81,364 81,584 5,557 5,572 5,581 5,596 5,616 5,634 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr May r.. June r. July". 107,442 107,711 107,888 108,101 108,310 108,560 108,729 25,626 25,629 25,646 25,671 25,672 25,651 25,680 5,267 5,270 5,252 5,279 5,283 5,281 5,318 19,648 19,648 19,680 19,672 19,667 19,655 19,658 11,605 11,594 11,604 11,600 11,594 11,567 11,549 8,043 8,054 8,076 8,072 8,073 8,088 8,109 81,816 82,082 82,242 82,430 82,638 82,909 83,049 5,654 5,667 5,666 5,682 5,700 5,716 5,739 18J81 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persona, domestic servants, and personnel of t\ie Armed forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p, 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad 14 5,165 4,954 5 159 5,238 5J255 5,372 5',548 Wholesale trade Be tail trade Finance, insurance, and real estate Government Services Total Federal 15,035 15,189 15,179 15,613 16 545 17,356 17*930 18,483 5,160 5,298 5*341 5,468 5,689 5,955 6*283 6,547 17,890 18,619 19*036 19,694 20,797 22,000 23*053 24,236 25*600 16,241 16,031 15,'837 15,869 16,024 16*394 16*,693 17,010 11 ',31 2 2,866 2,772 2*739 2,774 2,807 2,875 2*899 2,943 6,038 6,051 6,071 6,086 6,104 6,125 19,139 19,182 19,188 19,229 19,282 19,328 6,678 6,686 6,695 6,710 6,726 6,744 25,683 25,784 25,888 25,986 26,111 26,280 17,350 17,376 17,471 17,484 17,525 11,523 2,958 2,967 2,985 2,986 2,983 2,981 6,146 6,171 6,197 6,206 6,222 6,229 6,234 19,407 19,460 19,488 19,489 19,528 19,548 19,600 6,746 6,763 6,774 6,776 6,790 6,801 6,812 26,318 26,434 26,520 26,651 26,711 26,923 26,997 17,545 17,587 17,597 17,626 17,687 17,692 17,667 2,978 2,982 2,982 2,982 2,999 2,994 2,976 5,275 5,358 5*.278 5,268 5 555 5,717 5,153 5,844 6J029 weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. 2 Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average gross weekly earnings Average gross hourly earnings Average weekly hours Manufacturing Total private nonagrieultural } Period 1980 1981 1982 . . .. 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988: July 1989: Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar May ' July" Total 35.3 35.2 34.8 35.0 35.2 34.9 34.8 34.8 34.7 34.8 34.6 34.7 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.6 34.7 34.9 34.6 34.6 34.9 39.7 39.8 38.9 40.1 40.7 40.5 40.7 41.0 41.1 41.1 41.0 41.1 41.2 41.2 41.0 41.1 41.1 41.0 41.3 41.0 41.0 41.0 Current dollars Total private nonagricultural 1 Total private nonagricultural l Overtime 2.8 2.8 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 Manufacturing $7.27 7.99 8.49 8.83 9,19 9.54 9.73 9.91 10.18 10.18 10.21 10.25 10.29 10.30 10.31 10.33 10.37 10.40 10.40 10.42 10.45 10.48 $6.66 7.25 7.68 8.02 8.32 8.57 8.76 8.98 9.29 9.31 9.32 9.37 9.43 9.42 9.45 9.49 9.52 9.54 9.61 9.60 9.62 9.70 1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. 2 Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (on a 1977 = 100 base). 3 Current dollars 1977 dollars " $235.10 255.20 267.26 280.70 292.86 299.09 304.85 312.50 322.36 323.99 322.47 325.14 328.16 326.87 327.92 330.25 329.39 331.04 335.39 332.16 332.85 338.53 $172.74 170.13 168.09 171.26 172.78 170.42 171.07 169.28 167.81 168.39 166.82 167.68 168.55 167.28 167.39 167.55 166.44 166.44 167.53 165.01 165.10 167.51 Manufacturing Construction Retail trade $288.62 318.00 330.26 354.08 374.03 386.37 396.01 406.31 418.40 418.40 418.61 421.28 423.95 424.36 422.71 424.56 426.21 426.40 429.52 427.22 428.45 429.68 $367.78 399.26 426.82 442.97 458.51 464.46 466.75 480.44 493.08 493.29 492.53 494.05 499.66 503.04 497.07 496.89 498.39 501.23 505.21 494.17 497.79 512.26 $147.38 158.03 163.85 171.05 174.33 174.64 176.08 178.70 183.62 185.18 183.57 185.08 186.30 185.60 187.11 187.40 186.41 186.98 189.44 187.56 188.14 190.68 Percent change from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural 3 Current dollars 6.9 8.5 4.7 5.0 4.3 2.1 1.9 2.5 3.2 4.1 2.8 4.2 4.1 3.3 3.9 4.2 3.5 4.1 4.5 3.3 3.5 4.2 1977 dollars -5.8 -1.5 -1.2 1.9 .9 -1.4 .4 -1.0 -.9 .1 j2 -.0 -.1 -.9 -.5 -.3 -1.2 -.8 -.7 -2.0 -1.6 -.9 Based on seasonally unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY [Not seasonally adjusted] Percent change from Index (June 1981 = 100) 12 months earlier 3 months earlier Period 1980: Dec 1981: Dec.... 1982: Dec 1983: Dec.... 1984: Dec 1985: Dec.... 1986: Dec 1987: 1988: Dec.... Dec.... 1986: 1987: Mar Wages and salaries 94.7 104.0 110.7 117.0 122.7 127.5 131.6 136.0 142.6 95.4 103.8 110.3 115.8 120.6 125.6 129.5 133.8 139.3 126.8 129.9 128.8 129.5 130.8 131.7 133.0 133.8 135.1 136.6 137.9 139.3 140.8 142.2 June... Sept Dec.... 128.9 129.0 130.8 131.6 Mar.... June . . . Sept Dec.... 132.9 133.8 135.1 136.0 1988: Mar .... Dec 138.1 139.8 141.2 142.6 Mar.... June 144.4 146.1 June Sept... 1989: Total compensation Benefits 93.0 104.3 111.7 120.0 127.9 132.4 136.9 141.7 151.3 134.2 134.8 136.1 136.9 138.1 139.3 140.3 141.7 146.1 148.2 149.7 151.3 154.0 156.5 1 Employer costs for employee benefits. NOTE.—The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries. 1 Total compensation Wages and salaries Total compensation Wages and salaries 2.2 2.3 1.5 1.3 1.4 .5 .6 1.0 1.1 1.4 .4 1.0 .6 9.8 9.8 6.4 5.7 4.9 3.9 3.2 3.3 4.9 9.0 8.8 6.3 5.0 4.1 4.1 3.1 3.3 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.2 3.2 3.9 3.7 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.9 4.5 4.5 4.9 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.3 4.6 4.5 Benefits * 2.1 2.0 1.3 1.2 1.3 .6 .6 .7 1.0 2.0 1.8 1.2 1.1 1.2 .6 .5 .6 1.0 1.1 .8 .7 .6 1.0 .7 1.0 .7 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 .9 .7 .5 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 .9 .9 .7 1.0 3.1 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.8 1.6 1.0 .7 1.0 .6 3.3 3.7 3.7 4.1 4.2 4.1 Benefits * 11.8 12.2 7.1 7.4 6.6 3.5 3.4 3.5 6.8 3.2 3.5 3.3 3.4 2.9 3.3 3.1 3.5 5.8 6.4 6.7 6.8 5.4 5.6 Data exclude farm and household workers. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output per hour of all persons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Output * Business sector Hours of all persons 2 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Compensation per hour 3 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit labor costs Real compensation per hour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Implicit price deflator 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 1977 = 100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 99.4 101.0 100.2 102.6 105.2 99.0 100.0 99.1 102.0 104.2 106.7 108.9 105.5 109.9 119.2 106.7 108.5 104.9 110.1 119.2 107.3 107.9 105.3 107.2 113.3 107.8 108.5 105.9 108.0 114.4 131.8 144.1 154.9 160.8 167.4 131.6 144.0 154.7 160.8 167.2 97.0 96.1 97.3 97.8 97.6 96.7 96.0 97.1 97.8 97.5 132.6 142.7 154.5 156.7 159.1 132.9 144.0 156.1 157.6 160.4 127.6 139.8 148.1 153.0 158.2 127.8 140.3 149.2 154.3 159.0 107.3 109.8 111.1 113.1 105.6 107.7 108.9 111.2 124.2 128.0 133.4 140.0 123.9 127.6 133.1 140.3 115.7 116.6 120.1 123.8 117.4 118.4 122.2 126.2 174.8 183.8 191.0 200.4 174.0 182.9 189.8 198.9 98.4 101.7 101.9 102.7 98.0 101.1 101.2 101.9 162.8 167.5 171.9 177.2 164.9 169.8 174.2 178.8 162.2 165.6 170.0 174.9 163.8 167.6 172.0 176.5 IV r.... IV r.... IV r.... IV r .... 100.9 103.5 105.7 108.4 99.5 103.0 104.5 106.2 105.0 113.6 120.8 125.9 104.2 114.1 120.7 125.5 104.1 109.7 114.3 116.2 104.7 110.8 115.5 118.1 158.2 163.2 169.9 178.6 158.0 162.9 169.6 177.5 97.9 97.8 97.8 99.3 97.8 97.6 97.6 98.7 156.8 157.7 160.7 164.9 158.7 158.2 162.3 167.1 150.2 155.2 159.8 163.7 151.4 156.2 161.0 165.5 1986: m T.... IV '.... 109.6 109.8 107.5 107.6 127.7 128.9 127.2 128.4 116.5 117.4 118.3 119.3 185.1 187.4 184.1 186.4 102.2 102.8 101.7 102.2 168.9 170.6 171.2 173.2 166.7 167.1 168.8 169.2 109.9 110.7 111.7 112.5 107.7 108.6 109.5 110.3 130.4 132.2 134.4 136.7 130.0 132.0 134.1 136.4 118.6 119.5 120.3 121.5 120.7 121.6 122.4 123.7 188.2 189.5 191.8 195.2 187.0 188.3 190.5 193.9 101.9 101.4 101.7 102.6 101.3 100.7 101.0 101.9 171.2 171.3 171.6 173.5 173.6 173.4 173.9 175.8 168.2 169.6 170.7 171.3 170.3 171.4 172.6 173.4 113.3 112.7 113.6 113.6 111.1 110.7 111.6 112.1 138.2 139.3 140.7 141.9 138.0 139.5 141.1 142.8 122.0 123.6 123.9 124.9 124.3 126.1 126.4 127.3 196.5 199.3 202.2 204.8 195.1 197.8 200.5 203.3 102.3 102.7 102.9 103.1 101.6 101.9 102.1 102.4 173.5 176.9 178.1 180.2 175.7 178.7 179.6 181.3 171.9 174.1 175.8 177.9 173.8 175.6 177.0 179.6 113.9 114.2 111.8 111.8 143.6 144.0 143.6 144.2 126.0 126.2 128.5 129.0 207.2 210.5 205.7 208.5 103.0 103.0 102.3 102.0 181.9 184.4 184.1 186.4 179.4 181.5 180.8 182.9 .. . 1985 1986 1987 1988 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1987: I rr n r. m r.... IV .... 1988: I' n r.r m r .... IV .... 1989: I r HP Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 -0.3 1.5 -.7 2.4 2.6 -0.4 1.1 -.9 3.0 2.1 -1.1 2.1 31 4.2 8.4 12 1.7 -3.3 5.0 8.3 -0.8 .6 -2.4 1.8 5.7 07 .6 -2.4 2.0 6.0 10.5 9.3 7.5 3.8 4.1 10.5 9.5 7.4 4.0 3.9 26 -.9 1.2 .6 -.2 26 7 1.1 .7 -.4 10.9 7.7 8.3 1.4 1.5 11.0 8.3 8.4 1.0 1.8 9.0 9.6 5.9 3.3 3.3 9.7 9.7 6.3 3.5 3.0 1985 1986 1.3 2.0 1.1 2.1 4.2 3.1 4.2 4.9 3.9 3.0 4.4 5.4 2.2 .8 3.0 3.1 2.6 .9 3.2 3.2 4.4 5.2 3.9 4.9 4.1 5.1 3.7 4.8 .8 3.3 .2 .8 .5 3.2 .1 .7 2.3 2.8 2.6 3.1 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.1 2.6 2.9 3.0 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.0 1.6 .9 .8 -.5 10.4 3.5 3.6 -1.2 9.8 3.1 3.5 -3.0 6.8 2.0 2.1 -3.1 8.1 2.2 2.7 4.1 5.7 3.5 6.3 4.6 4.4 3.5 5.8 2.8 1.6 .0 2.1 3.3 .3 .0 1.6 1.5 2.3 2.0 4.8 2.6 2.8 2.6 5.0 2.4 4.8 2.7 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.3 2.1 1987 1988 ... 2.0 2.3 1.2 1.8 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: IV T .... IV r .... IV r .... IV r.... 2.6 3.3 1.5 1.5 1986: HIr.... IV r .... 1987: I r r n r. r m .... iv 1988: I rr n .r ni IV 1989: I r p n -1.7 .8 .3 .8 4.0 .7 3.7 2.5 3.2 2.5 3.4 4.6 5.0 4.6 5.0 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 6.4 4.2 6.5 4.7 4.9 1.0 5.1 1.0 .5 2.6 3.9 2.9 .4 3.3 3.6 2.7 4.7 5.6 6.7 7.1 5.2 6.1 6.6 7.0 4.3 2.9 2.7 4.1 4.8 2.8 2.9 4.2 1.9 2.7 4.8 7.4 1.4 2.7 4.8 7.3 -3.3 -2.0 1.1 3.6 -3.8 -2.1 1.1 3.5 1.4 .1 .9 4.3 1.0 -.6 1.2 4.5 2.5 3.4 2.6 1.4 2.8 2.5 3.0 1.7 2.7 -2.0 3.1 .2 3.0 -1.5 3.4 1.9 4.4 3.3 4.0 3.4 4.8 4.4 4.6 4.8 1.7 5.4 .9 3.2 1.8 5.9 1.2 2.8 2.8 5.9 5.8 5.2 2.7 5.5 5.5 5.9 -.8 1.3 1.0 .7 O .9 .8 1.4 .1 8.1 2.6 5.0 -.3 7.1 2.0 3.9 1.5 5.1 4.1 4.8 1.0 4.3 3.2 5.9 1.0 .9 -1.3 .2 4.8 1.4 2.4 1.7 3.8 .4 3.8 1.5 4.8 6.6 4.8 5.5 -.6 .3 -.6 - .9 3.7 5.7 6.2 5.2 3.3 4.9 2.8 4.8 -1.6 1 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1982 dollars. 2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed. 4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers. 5 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. 16 NOTE,—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Data reflect revisions beginning 1986 of GNP and related items published July 27, 1989. In addition, hours of labor input have been redefined as hours at the work site (rather than hours paid), affecting all labor input series back to 1947 (1958 for nonfmaneial institutions); the labor input series also reflect the regular benchmarking of nonagricultural establishment data in June 1989. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production rose in July and capacity utilization was unchanged; both had declined in June and May. INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) 240 FINAL PRODUCTS 220 INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) 160 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 140 SPACE EQUIPMENT 200 - r 180 120 BUSINESS EQUIPMENT 160 100 I l l l l l l l l l l Illllllllll Illllllllll 160 140 MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION 140 DURABLE' «—»_ I—',/"* -"-„ „ ._ ., — C" 120 — ^ ^- r^ .-'-"' CONSUMER GOODS Illllllllll Illllllllll iiMiiniii IIIUllllll 120 100 100 140 ..\ .- "-' ^-"' PERCENT* 100 CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE (TOTAL INDUSTRY) 90 UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION 120 _ -—„— 80 M H "^ 1 ^~~\ - 100 70 Illllllllll llll|l|l||l Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 1989 1985 1987 1988 1986 1989 1985 •SEASONAUY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Period Index, 1977 = 100 1977 proportion 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988: . .. July Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989- Jan Feb Mar Apr r May r .. June r. July p 1 Output as percent of capacity. Capacity utilization rate, percent * Industry production indexes, 1977 = 100 Total industrial production Manufacturing Percent change from year earlier Mining Durable Total Utilities Nondurable Total industry Manufacturing 100.0 108.6 111.0 103.1 109.2 121.4 123.7 125.1 129.8 137.2 -1.9 2.2 -7.1 5.9 11.2 1.9 1.1 3.8 5.7 84.21 108.2 110.5 102.2 110.2 123.4 126.4 129.1 134.7 142.7 49.10 109.1 111.1 99.9 107.7 124.2 127.6 128.4 133.1 141.9 35.11 107.0 109.7 105.5 113.7 122.3 124.6 130.1 136.8 143.9 9.83 112.4 117.5 109.3 102.9 111.1 108.9 100.4 100.7 103.4 5.96 107.3 107.1 104.8 105.2 110.7 111.1 108.5 110.3 114.3 80.9 79.9 72.1 74.6 81.0 80.4 79.4 80.7 83.3 79.3 78.2 70.3 73.9 80.5 80.1 79.7 81.1 83.5 138.0 138.5 138.6 139.4 139.9 140.4 5.7 5.5 5.7 5.2 5.1 4.9 143.6 144.0 144.4 145.3 145.8 146.3 142.9 143.2 143.8 144.6 145.2 145.7 144.6 145.1 145.3 146.3 146.7 147.1 104.3 103.8 103.7 103.1 104.7 104.9 114.4 117.8 113.0 113.9 113.7 115.4 83.7 83.8 83.7 84.0 84.1 84.3 84.0 84.0 84.0 84.3 84.4 84.4 140.8 140.5 140.7 141.7 141.6 141.4 141.7 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.7 4.0 3.6 2.7 147.2 146.8 147.0 148.0 148.0 148.1 148.3 146.2 145.9 145.8 146.9 146.9 146.8 146.7 148.5 148.1 148.6 149.6 149.6 149.9 150.6 103.0 100.9 101.5 102.4 101.6 100.4 100.7 114.0 116.5 117.5 117.1 116.3 114.9 115.8 84.3 83.9 83.8 84.2 83.9 83.6 83.6 84.7 84.3 84.1 84.5 84.2 84.0 83.9 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Materials Products Intermediate products Final products Equipment Consumer goods Period Total Total 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 . 1987 1988. 1988: July Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989- Jan Feb Mar Apr r May r July" 1 44.77 112.2 115.2 109.5 114.7 127.3 131.0 132.5 136.8 144.3 25.52 102.7 104.1 101.4 109.3 118.0 119.8 124.0 127.8 133.9 145.0 145.8 145.8 146.4 146.8 147.7 134.2 135.0 134.8 136.4 136.8 138.2 148.2 148.6 148.9 150.2 150.5 150.7 150.6 138.5 138.7 138.4 139.5 139.3 139.4 138.9 Durable goods Nondurable goods 6.89 88.4 89.7 82.9 98.5 112.2 112.5 115.6 120.2 125.3 125.3 125.7 126.3 129.3 129.2 131.9 131.5 131.6 130.1 132.2 131.2 130.5 127.2 18.63 108.1 109.3 108.3 113.3 120.1 122.5 127.1 130.6 137.1 19.25 124.7 129.9 120.2 121.7 139.6 145.8 143.6 148.9 158.2 137.5 138.5 138.0 139.0 139.7 140.5 141.1 141.4 141.4 142.2 142.2 142.7 143.3 159.4 160.1 160.4 159.7 159.9 160.4 161.1 161.6 162.8 164.3 168.5 165.5 166.0 Total ' Business 14.34 125.1 127.6 113.6 115.4 134.2 140.2 139.5 144.5 157.6 159.3 160.2 160.8 160.2 161.2 162.6 163.8 165.0 166.3 167.8 168.9 168.9 169.3 Defense and space equipment 3.67 115.4 119.8 133.0 143.1 156.4 171.4 182.0 188.9 185.8 184.9 184.9 184.5 184.0 182.2 180.5 180.0 179.3 178.7 179.9 180.7 181.1 181.7 Total 12. 94 106.9 107.3 101.7 111.2 124.7 129.3 136.2 143.4 151.5 151.6 152.3 152.9 154.0 154.2 155.0 156.6 155.1 156.1 156.5 156.2 156.1 156.4 Construction supplies Business supplies Total Energy 5.95 100.6 98.6 88.3 100.6 114.0 119.2 126.4 131.5 138.6 6.99 112.3 114.7 113.1 120.3 133.8 137.9 144.6 153.5 162.5 42.28 105.3 107.7 96.7 102.8 114.2 114.3 113.8 118.2 125.2 11.69 105.5 104.7 101.2 98.4 103.9 103.3 99.7 99.8 101.5 138.4 138.1 138.4 140.0 140.7 141.4 162.8 164.4 165.2 165.9 165.7 166.7 126.4 126.5 126.5 127.5 128.3 128.3 102.7 103.2 101.5 101.3 102.3 102.6 142.3 139.5 139.3 140.2 139.3 139.8 139.3 168.8 168.4 170.4 170.4 170.6 170.0 128.1 127.4 127.3 128.2 127.7 127.2 127.8 100.5 100.5 101.0 101.7 100.8 98.9 99.1 Includes oil and gas well drilling and manufactured homes, not shown separately. [1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Nondurable manufactures Durable manufactures Transportation equipment Primary metals Period Total 1977 proportion 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988. 1988: July.. Aue Sept. 1989: Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar . Apr T May r June r July11 5.33 90.4 95.0 65.8 73.0 82.3 80.4 75.1 81.3 89.2 91.5 90.8 93.1 94.2 92.7 90.0 93.2 91.1 88.4 90.1 86.9 87.3 88 8 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 Iron and steel 3.49 86.3 92.5 57.5 66.1 73.4 70.4 63.4 70.6 78.1 80.2 78.9 81.4 83.1 80.8 77.6 82.2 79.1 75.9 77.0 73.2 ISA Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery 6.46 101.8 101.6 86.6 89.1 102.6 107.1 108.0 111.0 120.9 9.54 123.3 129.8 115.6 118.3 141.8 146.2 145.0 152.7 170.8 121.7 122.1 122.5 122.6 124.6 125.1 173.1 174.1 174.8 173.8 175.4 177.8 124.5 124.5 123.8 123.1 124.7 124.6 124.9 178.7 180.8 183.0 184.7 186.5 186.6 187.6 Electrical machinery 7.15 130.3 134.1 128.4 143.8 170.5 168.3 165.7 172.3 180.1 181.5 182.2 181.8 183.0 182.2 180.9 180.9 181.7 181.6 182.2 181.1 181.1 180.9 Total Motor vehicles and parts Lumber and products Apparel products ing and publishing Chemicals and products Foods 9.13 96.9 95.1 87.6 99.2 112.2 122.8 127.5 129.2 132.1 5.25 71.1 71.6 66.8 85.8 104.4 111.9 111.5 111.8 117.2 2.30 92.9 90.1 82.8 100.2 109.1 114.3 124.1 130.3 137.3 2.79 97.3 96.1 87.3 95.3 102.7 100.4 103.1 107.4 109.1 4.54 115.1 118.6 120.2 129.8 146.5 151.4 160.9 172.1 184.2 8.05 106.4 112.6 103.8 114.0 121.6 126.4 132.0 140.2 151.9 7.96 111.4 113.7 114.9 120.4 126.9 130.5 134.4 137.8 142.7 131.9 131.8 132.7 134.8 135.2 136.8 116.6 117.5 118.5 121.7 122.9 125.5 136.6 133.8 133.5 137.5 139.4 143.0 109.4 108.9 109.9 109.5 110.1 108.8 184.9 186.7 188.0 188.1 188.5 188.0 153.4 154.8 155.3 156.7 157.5 158.1 143.3 143.3 143.2 144.0 145.7 145.8 136.7 136.4 134.8 136.4 135.5 134.3 132.0 124.9 123.4 120.4 122.0 119.7 116.5 110.8 139.9 132.8 133.4 135.1 134.7 135.6 110.2 110.2 109.9 111.3 111.6 193.0 194.6 198.5 200.1 199.4 199.5 200 2 159.0 158.5 159.2 159.3 158.4 159.1 146.6 146.3 145.4 146.6 147.4 147.6 NEW CONSTRUCTION [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Construction contracts 3 Private Period Total new construction expenditures Federal, State, and local Residential Commercial Total New housing units Total ' and industrial 2 Other Total value index (1982=100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) Billions of dollars 253.0 252.8 261.3 248.0 282.4 329.6 356.6 387.0 397.7 409.7 1979... 1980 1981.... 1982 1983. 1984 1985... 1986 1987.... 1988 201.3 194.3 204.7 194.3 228.7 271.9 292.6 315.3 320.1 328.7 89.3 69.6 69.4 57.0 94.6 113.8 114.7 133.2 139.9 138.9 116.4 100.4 99.2 84.7 125.5 153.8 158.5 187.1 194.7 198.1 42.0 46.7 55.0 58.7 53.8 68.6 82.7 78.0 76.5 79.8 42.8 47.2 50.5 50.9 49.3 49.4 51.4 50.2 48.9 50.8 109 97 100 100 124 136 150 158 164 161 51.7 58.5 56.5 53.7 53.8 57.7 64.1 71.7 77.6 80.9 Annual rates Annual rates 1988- June July Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989- Jan Feb Mar May ' June ". July" 1 2 3 1,059 904 919 690 756 955 1,097 1,016 1,019 942 408.7 410.7 408.1 411.5 411.1 415.4 425.0 328.0 328.1 329.2 329.8 331.4 332.8 336.3 196.2 196.8 197.6 198.3 200.8 202.0 202.5 137.5 137.0 137.0 138.0 139.8 141.9 143.3 82.0 81.4 80.6 79.7 79.1 78.8 80.6 49.9 49.9 51.0 51.9 51.5 51.9 53.2 80.8 82.5 78.9 81.7 79.7 82.6 88.8 169 160 162 157 164 158 163 904 954 905 880 841 839 942 424.8 418.5 419.2 415.8 418.2 414.7 339.5 335.0 340.4 335.4 333.5 334.0 204.7 202.3 204.5 204.0 200.2 197.9 145.6 145.3 143.2 142.0 138.3 136.6 82.5 81.1 84.2 79.4 80.3 82.7 52.2 51.6 51.8 52.0 53.0 53.4 85.3 83.4 78.7 80.4 84.7 80.6 155 148 150 163 159 157 163 943 850 856 836 905 938 933 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information System Company, F.W. Dodge Division. Includes residential improvements, not shown separately. Includes hotels and motels. F.W. Dodge series. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New private homes New private housing units Period Units started, by type of structure Total 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1,745.1 1,292.2 1,084.2 1,062.2 1,703.0 1,749.5 1,741.8 1,805.4 1,620.5 1,488.1 1 unit 1,194.1 852.2 705.4 662.6 1,067.6 1,084.2 1,072.4 1,179.4 1,146.4 1,081.3 2-4 units 122.0 109.5 91.1 80.0 113.5 121.4 93.4 84.0 65.3 58.8 5 or more units 429.0 330.5 287.7 319.6 522.0 544.0 576.1 542.0 408.7 348.0 Units authorized 1,551.8 1,190.6 985.5 1,000.5 1,605.2 1,681.8 1,733.3 1,769.4 1,534.8 1,455.6 Units completed Homes sold Homes for sale at end of period i 3 397 337 275 253 301 353 346 357 365 366 1,501.6 1,265.7 1,005.5 1,390.3 1,652.2 1,703.3 1,756.4 1,668.8 1,529.8 709 545 436 412 623 639 688 750 671 676 701 712 691 718 650 669 365 363 361 353 364 366 700 621 555 r 607 646 646 739 369 375 377 377 381 379 371 1,870.8 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 2 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.3 5.7 5.9 6.5 7.3 7.7 7.7 Seasonally adjusted annu al rates 1988- July Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989- Jan Feb Mar July p 1 1,478 1,459 1,463 1,532 1,567 1,577 1,067 1,076 1,039 1,136 1,138 1,141 50 59 62 63 68 65 361 324 362 333 361 371 1,425 1,466 1,432 1,526 1,508 1,518 1,528 1,539 1,536 1,516 1,429 1,539 1,678 1,465 1,409 1,343 1,308 1,419 1,430 1,199 1,029 981 1,029 977 979 1,041 66 62 50 62 42 56 59 413 374 378 252 289 384 330 1,486 1,403 1,230 1,334 1,347 1,308 1,281 1,537 1,610 1,459 r 1,552 1,441 1,332 Seasonally adjusted. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter, i eries beginning 1979 not strictly comparable with earlier data. 3 New series beginning March 1979. 2 r 7.8 7.3 7.3 7.3 NOTE. — Beginning 1984, units authorized are for 17,000 permit-issuing places; for 1978-83 data are for 16,000 places. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade In June, manufacturing and trade sales fell 0.4 percent and inventories rose $3.1 billion. In July, according to advance data, retail sales rose 0.9 percent, following a decline of 0.1 percent in June. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 800 240 - ^_^—- -^ 700 - 220 ,^~*~1^ 200 MAN UFACTURIN 3 AND TR/kDE INVENTC>RIES 600 - 180 "RETAIL INVENTORIES 160 500 - * * y-\" * _ s~~~ 140 - M*NUFACTUR WAt -JD TRADE S/ UES 400 120 - • RETAIL SALES- 100 Illllllllll 300 RATIO* 1.80 - _ INVENTORY-SALES RATIO 1.60 r^vv '^z^^ ^T- 1.40 1985 miilum 1986 Illllllllll Illllllllll 1987 1988 1 1 11 1111 111 1.00 1989 iiiniiiiii 1986 1985 T 1 111111 11 1 1987 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Manufacturing and trade ' Period x~~ - MANUFACTURING AND TRADE - 1.20 imiliim iimliim ' * -'" .. - »» !TV..--V.' 200 RETA|L 1 1 111111 1j f 1988 iiii|liiiu 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Inventory-sales ratio 4 Eetail Wholesale Inventories 3 Sales 2 Inventories 3 Sales a Inventories 3 Sales 2 348,747 368,813 407,869 418,151 423,700 449,536 485,756 574,491 590,358 644,306 655,066 653,853 700,761 753,718 96,290 100,244 113,195 114,315 115,677 123,581 132,361 128,196 130,334 142,380 146,745 152,447 162,648 178,313 486,226 486,102 . .. 492,491 492,478 498,846 501,400 506,186 724,515 729,903 737,562 744,054 743,544 746,756 753,718 132,285 133,833 134,726 135,332 138,087 137,239 136,170 172,079 135,060 174,581 " 135,571 176,368 136,050 176,972 135,751 177,408 137,842 177,060 139,529 139,189 178,313 511,881 507,328 507,555 517,745 518,088 515,769 759,803 763,051 765,504 771,340 778,093 781,171 140,356 139,547 139,991 142,290 142,474 142,046 179,761 179,810 179,681 181,226 182,615 182,737 Total Durable goods stores Manufacturing and trade ' Retail Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores 61,093 64,754 68,985 72,434 74,802 79,077 83,384 134,468 147,377 167,159 180,825 185,224 206,981 221,242 61,469 68,984 79,257 88,608 90,477 106,271 114,994 72,999 78,393 87,902 92,217 94,747 100,710 106,248 1.67 1.56 1.53 1.55 1.55 1.51 1.50 1.49 1.44 1.49 1.53 1.56 1.56 1.57 82,688 83,344 84,119 84,324 85,117 85,599 85,035 210,473 211,534 215,396 219,297 216,724 218,093 221,242 106,869 107,443 110,146 114,303 111,689 112,904 114,994 103,604 104,091 105,250 104,994 105,035 105,189 106,248 1.49 1.50 1.50 1.51 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.56 1.56 1.58 1.62 1.57 1.56 1.59 86,225 86,357 86,630 87,512 88,404 T 88,785 89,160 222,584 224,185 224,693 226,656 230,423 231,888 115,704 116,169 115,993 117,093 118,835 119,548 106,880 108,016 108,700 109,563 111,588 112,340 1.48 1.50 1.51 1.49 1.50 1.51 1.59 1.61 1.61 1.60 1.62 1.63 Nondurable goods stores Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1982 1983 1984. 1985 1986 1987 1988. 1988: June r July AUE . Sept Get Nov Dec 1989' Jan Feb Mar Apr May r June " July ". 1 2 3 r See page 21 for manufacturing. Monthly average for year and total for month. End of period. 20 89,107 97,328 106,805 113,821 119,663 126,785 135,763 140,040 139,428 139,516 141,413 142,543 r 142,440 143,731 28,013 32,574 37,819 41,387 44,861 47,707 52,379 r 52,372 52,227 51,931 51,427 52,725 53,930 54,154 53,815 53,071 52,886 53,901 54,139 ' 53,655 54,571 4 r Annual data are averages of monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In June, manufacturers' shipments fell while inventories and orders rose. In July, according to advance data, durable goods shipments and new orders fell. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 280 240 440 400 360 200 TOTAL INVENTORIES ,—•— "k TOTAL 280 160 .— — ,_ DURABLE GOODS 200 120 ^ GOO OS DL1 RABLE 160 80 NONDURABLE GOODS 120 — v~ 60 NONDURABLE C5OODS Illllllllll 80 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 60, NEW ^PDEPS 240 MM, In,,, ^-^—i 200 -r \ | Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll RATIO * 2.20 ^^ TOTAL INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO 160 1 DURABLE GOODS 120 __ A...^-'' •».^... - ._-- J .-"'U--"t"1 2.00 - 1.80 1.60 80 r^^" ^ 1.40 ^ 60 Illllllllll iiintiiiii imiimii 1985 1986 1987 Illllllllll Illllllllll 1.20 M 1 I 1 1 1 I t 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 [ H 1 1 M 1 1 I \ | | I 1985 1989 1988 1987 1986 mill 1988 SEASONALLY ADJ USTED OURCE; DEPARTM ENT OF COMMERCE . Manufacturers' new orders 1 Manufacturers' inventories 2 Durable goods Total Durable goods 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturers' shipments l Period 1 1 1 11 111 1 1 1 Nondurable goods Durable goods Total Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, nondefense Nondurable goods Manufacturers' unfilled orders 2 83,935 86,522 91,209 91,075 88,497 94,197 101,993 314,270 349,419 372,586 383,181 387,065 421,243 468,860 102,648 103,765 104,203 103,348 104,304 105,118 106,737 443,357 446,536 451,830 453,103 457,281 460,802 468,860 107,596 107,199 107,634 110,535 110,229 110,021 473,450 476,403 481,366 487,231 487,913 491,884 Manufacturers' inventory — shipments ratio 3 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1982 . 1983 1984. . 1985 1986. 1987 1988 1988: June July Autr Sept Oct Nov 1989: Dec Jan Feb .. . Mar Apr May ' June ' July p 1 2 163,350 171,242 187,869 190,016 188,360 199,170 217,632 218,881 216,698 221,715 221,395 222,917 224,632 230,827 231,485 228,353 228,048 234,042 233,071 231,283 79,352 84,956 96,623 99,019 99,989 105,291 115,684 116,522 113,122 117,866 118,030 118,439 119,874 124,175 123,578 120,924 120,432 123,331 122,962 r !21,771 118 161 83,998 86,286 91,246 90,996 88,371 93,879 101,948 102,359 103,576 103,849 103,365 104,478 104,758 106,652 107,907 107,429 107,616 110,711 110,109 109,512 311,827 312,647 334,767 327,496 316,182 331,132 354,163 200,825 200,406 218,771 214,066 208,313 216,598 233,666 111,002 112,241 115,996 113,430 107,869 114,534 120,497 162,273 174,122 189,791 190,918 188,663 201,966 221,627 78,338 87,600 98,581 99,843 100,166 107,770 119,634 341,963 343,788 345,798 347,785 349,412 351,603 354,163 357,458 359,056 361,130 363,458 365,055 366,546 224,000 225,467 226,600 228,214 229,735 231,766 233,666 236,810 238,165 239,330 240,486 241,689 242,312 117,963 118,321 119,198 119,571 119,677 119,837 120,497 228,090 219,877 227,009 222,669 227,095 228,153 238,886 125,442 116,112 122,806 119,321 122,791 123,035 132,149 21,661 22,098 26,243 27,067 26,551 29,707 35,028 35,458 36,213 38,808 34,858 34,623 35,825 39,432 120,648 120,891 121,800 122,972 123,366 124,234 128,479 236,075 124,107 231,306 125,377 233,011 129,372 239,907 123,524 233,753 235,254 " 125,233 122,896 40,352 37,189 38,137 40,389 37,290 r 39,179 41,142 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales. End of period. 3 1.95 1.80 1.74 1.74 1.70 1.62 1.58 1.56 1.59 1.56 1.57 1.57 1.57 1.53 1.54 1.57 1.58 1.55 1.57 1.58 Annual data are averages of monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In July, the producer price index for all finished goods fell 0.4 percent. Prices of finished consumer foods rose 0.1 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods fell 0.9 percent. Capital equipment prices were unchanged. INDEX, 1982=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1982 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) 120 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED FINISHED GOODS PRICES 120 /-|~>M«I UACD CONSUMER FOODS /'>•.. CAPITAL EQUIPMENT /** / 110 _,--, •""' &z£^\''^-^S../'-v c*""l^S2«i ^^ — 100 "' —/ / / * ^ *./ 110 \ sf^ ^C^ ^.. TOTAL ; — ^ —r~~~ \ 100 v * "\ *..' 'CONSUMER \ ' C»OODS "*" fS — EXCLUDING F OODS / 90 90 — — 80 80 Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 1981 1982 1983 iiiiiiiiin niiiiiiiii 1984 Illllllllll ||||ll|llll Illllllllll Illllllllll 1986 1985 1987 1988 SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISER: [1982 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Intermediate materials Finished goods Total finished consumer goods Total Nondurable Capital equipment Finished goods excluding consumer foods Period Total finished goods Consumer foods Consumer goods Total Total 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988- July Aue: Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989- Jan Feb Mar r May July 1 Foodstuffs Foods and Other Total and Other feedstuffs feeds ' 88.0 96.1 100.0 101.6 103.7 104.7 103.2 105.4 108.0 92.4 97.8 100.0 101.0 105.4 104.6 107.3 109.5 112.6 86.7 95.6 100.0 101.8 103.2 104.6 101.9 104.0 106.5 87.1 96.1 100.0 101.2 102.2 103.3 98.5 100.7 103.1 91.0 96.4 100.0 102.8 104.5 106.5 108.9 111.5 113.8 85.1 95.8 100.0 100.5 101.1 101.7 93.3 94.9 97.3 85.8 94.6 100.0 102.8 105.2 107.5 109.7 111.7 114.3 88.6 96.6 100.0 101.3 103.3 103.8 101.4 103.6 106.2 90.3 98.6 100.0 100.6 103.1 102.7 99.1 101.5 107.1 105.5 104.6 100.0 103.6 105.7 97.3 96.2 99.2 109.5 89.4 98.2 100.0 100.5 103.0 103.0 99.3 101.7 106.9 95.3 103.0 100.0 101.3 103.5 95.8 87.7 93.7 96.0 104.6 103.9 100.0 101.8 104.7 94.8 93.2 96.2 106.1 84.6 101.8 100.0 100.7 102.2 96.9 81.6 87.9 85.5 108.2 108.5 109.1 109.2 109.5 109.9 112.9 113.6 114.6 114.7 115.1 115.2 106.6 106.9 107.3 107.4 107.7 108.2 103.3 103.5 103.7 103.8 104.1 104.7 113.9 114.5 115.1 115.0 115.0 115.4 97.6 97.6 97.6 97.8 98.3 98.9 114.3 114.7 115.7 115.6 115.8 116.2 106.5 106.8 107.3 107.4 107.8 108.2 107.9 108.2 108.6 108.6 109.0 109.5 115.9 114.9 115.3 115.1 113.2 112.3 107.4 107.8 108.2 108.3 108.8 109.4 96.6 97.2 97.1 96.6 94.8 97.8 108.3 110.9 113.1 113.4 108.8 110.8 85.2 84.4 83.1 82.0 82.1 85.6 111.1 112.1 112.6 113.1 114.1 114.0 113.5 116.7 117.8 118.8 118.2 119.2 118.2 118.3 109.3 110.1 110.5 111.4 112.4 112.6 111.9 106.0 107.1 107.5 109.0 110.2 110.1 109.1 116.3 116.9 117.0 116.3 117.2 117.4 117.1 100.4 101.6 102.2 104.5 105.8 105.6 104.3 116.9 117.4 117.5 117.4 117.9 118.7 118.7 109.5 110.6 111.2 112.0 113.2 112.8 112.1 110.8 111.3 111.9 112.5 112.6 112.4 112.2 115.2 114.8 116.7 115.2 113.6 111.8 113.6 110.5 111.1 111.7 112.3 112.6 112.4 112.1 101.8 101.5 103.7 104.2 105.1 103.0 103.2 113.3 111.7 115.2 111.9 112.3 109.4 108.2 90.2 90.7 92.1 94.8 96.0 94.5 95.4 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. 22 Durable Crude materials Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In July, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted. The index was 5.0 percent above its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1982-84=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1982-84=100 (RATIO SCALE) 130 130 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 120 120 - CONSUMER PRICES—ALL ITEMS - 110 110 V 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 III 60 1981 111 1982 1983 1984 1985 Hill Illlll 1987 1986 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 60 1989 1988 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1982-84 = 100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] All items * Transportation Housing Motor fuel Medical care Bner- Total * New cars gy 2 All items less food, shelter, and energy 6.4 90.9 95.3 97.8 100.2 102.1 105.0 105.9 110.6 115.4 17.2 83.1 93.2 97.0 99.3 103.7 106.4 102.3 105.4 108.7 4.3 88.4 93.7 97.4 99.9 102.8 106.1 110.6 114.6 116.9 3.1 97.4 108.5 102.8 99.4 97.9 98.7 77.1 80.2 80.9 6.0 74.9 82.9 92.5 100.6 106.8 113.5 122.0 130.1 138.6 7.3 86.0 97.7 99.2 99.9 100.9 101.6 88.2 88.6 89.3 48.7 80.6 88.3 95.1 100.0 105.0 109.0 112.7 117.0 121.9 Shelter Period Not seasonally adjusted (NSA) Seasonally adjusted Rel. imp.3.... 100.0 1980 82.4 1981 909 1982 96.5 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988: July Aue Sept Oct.. . Nov Dec.... 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr May.. July ... . 1 996 103.9 1076 109.6 113.6 118.3 Food Total ' Total Renters' costs (Dec. 1982 = 100) Homeowners' costs (Dec. 1982 = 100) 16.2 86.8 93.6 97.4 99.4 103.2 105.6 109.0 113.5 118.2 42.3 81.1 90.4 96.9 99.5 103.6 107.7 110.9 114.2 118.5 27.8 81.0 90.5 96.9 99.1 104.0 109.8 115.8 121.3 127.1 7.9 19.7 103.0 108.6 115.4 121.9 128.1 133.6 102.5 107.3 113.1 119.4 124.8 131.1 0.2 82.4 90.7 96.4 99.9 103.7 106.5 107.9 111.8 114.7 Fuel and other utilities Apparel and upkeep 7.6 75.4 86.4 94.9 100.2 104.8 106.5 104.1 103.0 104.4 118.5 119.0 119.8 120.2 120.3 120.5 118.6 119.0 119.5 120.0 120.3 120.7 118.9 119.5 120.3 120.6 120.8 121.2 118.5 118.9 119.3 119.6 120.1 120.6 127.0 127.6 128.1 128.3 128.9 129.4 133.4 133.8 133.8 134.1 134.2 134.9 131.2 131.9 132.5 132.7 133.5 133.9 114.5 115.0 115.3 115.0 115.4 115.8 104.0 104.0 104.4 105.1 105.5 106.3 115.7 113.9 116.0 117.4 117.4 117.7 108.7 109.6 109.7 110.1 110.4 110.4 116.7 117.0 117.7 117.8 117.9 118.1 81.3 82.8 82.0 81.3 81.1 79.7 139.4 140.0 140.7 141.6 142.2 142.9 88.9 89.5 89.3 89.2 89.5 89.2 122.2 122.4 123.0 123.8 124.2 124.6 121.1 121.6 122.3 123.1 123.8 124.1 124.4 121.4 121.9 122.5 123.3 124.0 124.2 124.5 122.1 122.6 123.6 124.2 125.0 125.3 125.7 120.9 121.3 121.7 121.8 122.3 122.6 123.3 129.7 130.3 131.1 131.2 131.8 132.3 133.2 135.2 136.4 138.2 137.3 137.3 138.1 140.2 134.2 134.7 135.1 135.6 136.5 136.9 137.5 116.1 117.1 117.1 117.3 117.4 118.3 118.4 106.9 106.7 106.9 107.4 107.6 107.1 107.6 117.7 117.5 119.1 119.4 120.4 119.1 118.1 111.2 111.9 112.6 115.0 116.1 115.9 115.2 118.9 119.3 119.7 119.8 119.6 119.3 118.8 80.5 81.8 83.6 93.0 96.6 95.4 93.3 144.0 145.2 145.9 146.6 147.6 148.7 149.8 89.9 90.4 91.4 96.1 97.6 96.6 95.9 125.4 125.8 126.3 126.6 127.2 127.4 127.6 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc. also included through 1982. 3 Relative importance, December 1988. Maintenance and repairs (NSA) NOTE.—Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs and therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods. Data beginning 1987 and 1988 calculated on a revised basis. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Period Change from preceding period Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate Consumer goods Consumer goods Consumer goods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Poods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 11.8 7.1 3.6 .6 1.7 1.8 2.3 2.2 4.0 14.1 8.6 4.2 -.9 .8 2.1 -6.6 4.1 3.1 7.5 1.5 2.0 2.3 3.5 .6 2.8 2 5.7 13.4 9.2 4.1 1.6 2.1 1.0 -1.4 2.1 2.5 11.4 9.2 3.9 2.0 1.8 2.7 2.1 1.3 3.6 Change, month to month 1988- July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989- Jan Peb Mar ' May 0.6 .3 .6 .1 .3 .4 0.7 .6 .9 .1 .3 .1 0.6 .2 .2 .1 .3 .6 1.1 .9 .4 .4 .9 -.1 1.3 .9 .8 -.5 .8 -.8 .1 1.2 1.0 .4 1.4 1.1 -.1 -.9 A July 0.3 .3 .9 \ .2 .3 .6 .4 .1 -.1 .4 .7 0 4.2 4.2 5.7 3.7 3.7 3.0 8.6 8.9 9.2 6.5 5.4 2.1 2.4 2.4 4.0 2.0 2.3 3.9 3.2 3.6 6.1 4.6 3.9 1.7 3.4 4.0 4.4 4.0 3.9 4.3 4.6 6.7 7.4 7.6 7.1 5.6 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.2 2.3 3.9 2.7 2.8 4.5 3.9 3.7 3.9 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.3 4.0 7.1 9.8 10.2 7.4 7.3 5.1 1.4 7.2 9.7 13.1 5.2 4.8 2.0 8.8 12.0 11.1 11.8 12.1 10.0 .4 4.6 5.6 4.6 1.7 1.7 4.1 4.5 5.4 6.7 6.5 7.3 8.6 7.6 4.4 6.8 7.5 7.5 6.2 7.3 5.3 2.8 5.3 7.1 7.5 10.3 12.1 10.6 5.9 4.6 4.8 3.1 3.1 3.7 4.3 3.1 4.5 5.3 5.5 5.6 6.2 5.9 5.0 .3 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Housing Transportation Shelter Period All items ' Food Total ' Total1 Kenterg' costs Homeowners' costs Fuel and other utilities Apparel and upkeep New cars Total ' Motor fuel Medical care Ener- gy2 All items less food, shelter, and energy Addendum: All items, percent change (annual rate) From previous quarter s From 3 months earlier From 6 months earlier From year earlier NSA Change, December to December, NSA 12.5 8.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 1.1 4.4 4.4 10.2 4.3 3.1 2.7 3.8 2.6 3.8 3.5 5.2 13.7 10.2 3.6 July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 0.4 .3 .4 .4 .3 .3 Jan Feb Mar .6 .4 .5 .7 .6 .2 .2 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 3.5 4.3 4.3 1.7 3.7 4.0 15.0 9.9 2.4 4.7 5.2 6.0 4.6 4.8 4.5 5.1 5.9 6.3 5.0 3.9 3.9 4.5 5.1 5.9 4.6 5.3 4.7 0.9 .5 .7 .2 .2 .3 0.3 .3 .3 .3 .4 .4 0.2 .5 .4 .2 .5 .4 0.3 .3 0 .2 .1 .5 0.3 .5 .5 .2 .6 .3 0.1 0 .4 .7 .4 .8 -0.2 -1.6 1.8 1.2 0 .3 .7 .4 .8 .5 .6 .2 .3 .2 .3 .3 .1 .4 .2 .6 .2 .5 .6 .1 .5 .4 .7 .2 .9 1.3 -.7 0 .6 1.5 .2 .4 .3 .4 .7 .3 .4 .6 -.2 .2 .5 .2 -.5 .5 0 — .2 1.4 .3 .8 — 1.1 -.8 13.8 14.4 9.7 1.8 4.2 1.8 -5.6 1.6 2.9 6.8 3.5 1.6 2.9 2.0 2.8 .9 4.8 4.7 14.6 10.9 1.8 3.9 3.1 2.6 59 6.1 3.0 7.4 6.8 1.5 3.4 2.5 3.4 5.9 1.8 2.1 18.8 9.4 -6.5 -1.7 -2.4 3.1 30 7 18.7 -2.1 9.9 12.5 11.0 6.4 6.1 6.8 7.7 5.8 6.9 18.0 11.9 1.3 -.5 .2 1.8 19 7 8.2 .5 9.8 9.4 6.1 5.0 4.3 3.7 3.3 3.8 4.7 0.3 .8 .1 .4 .3 0 0.1 .3 .6 .1 .1 .2 0.5 1.8 -1.0 0.7 .4 .5 .6 .4 .5 0.2 .7 -.2 — .1 .3 3 0.3 .2 .5 .7 .3 .3 .7 .6 .6 2.1 1.0 -.2 -.6 .7 .3 .3 .1 -.2 -.3 -.4 .8 .8 .5 .5 .7 .7 .7 .8 .6 1.1 5.1 1.6 -1.0 7 .6 .3 .4 .2 .5 .2 .2 13.5 10.3 6.2 3.2 4.3 3.6 1.9 3.6 4.1 Change, month to month 1988: 1989: May June July 1 Includes items not shown separately. Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—-and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc., also included through 1982. 2 24 3 Q 2 -1.7 1.0 1.6 2.2 11.2 3.9 -1.2 -2.2 4.4 5.4 6.4 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 4.5 4.8 4.8 4.4 4.1 4.4 4.7 4.9 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.1 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.7 5.4 6.1 6.4 7.1 5.7 4.0 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.6 6.2 5.9 5.2 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.5 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers in July were 0.7 percent below their June level. Prices paid by farmers in July were 0.6 percent above their April level. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) INDEX, 1977 =100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 180 180 160 160 PRICES PAID 140 140 120 120 PRICES RECEIVED 100 100 80 80 Illlll 60 RATION 140 120 100 80 60 Ill lll lllll lll I II I Illlll II Mil 60 RATIO-^ 140 - 120 r ~~—^^|—~~~-^- - Illllllllll 1981 100 KAIIU — —-—11 —1 ~ ~ - Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll I l l l l l l l l l l Illllllllll Illllllllll 1983 1982 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 80 60 1989 I/RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE [1977 = 100; not seasonally adjusted] Prices paid by farmers Prices received by farmers Period 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 ... 1987 1988.... 1988: July Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989: Jan Feb M&r Apr MayJ T June July 1 All farm products Livestock and products Crops 139 133 135 142 128 123 126 138 142 144 144 143 144 145 149 148 149 147 149 147 146 134 121 128 138 120 107 106 126 137 136 135 133 136 136 140 138 136 140 141 138 134 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by fanners to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. See also footnote 3. 3 Beginning March 1986. prices paid by farmers are available only for first month in quarter, and for each month the received/paid ratio is based on latest data available. All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates 1 Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates Production items 143 145 141 146 136 138 146 150 147 152 153 152 151 154 150 159 161 164 162 159 161 170 172 151 158 159 161 156 150 151 160 162 148 153 152 155 151 144 147 157 159 173 163 162 158 158 161 154 156 157 156 175 166 163 177 167 165 178 167 165 Ratio 2 92 84 84 87 79 77 79 81 83 84 84 83 83 84 85 85 85 83 84 83 82 NOTE. — The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1977 — 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes, bource: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES Ml rose in July after declining for four months; growth in the broader aggregates accelerated in July. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 4,000 4,000 3,600 3,200 3,200 2,800 2,800 2,400 2,400 M2 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 600 400 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 • AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Percent change from year or 6 months earlier 2 Ml M2 M3 Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OCDs) Ml plus overnight KPs and Eurodollars, MMMF balances (general purpose and broker/dealer), MMDAs, and savings and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, term EPs, term Eurodollars, and institution-only MMMF balances Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 412.2 439.1 476.4 522.1 551.9 620.5 725.9 752.3 790.3 1,633.3 1,795.9 1,954.5 2,186.0 2,367.2 2,567.4 2,811.2 2,909.9 3,069.4 1,991.1 1,236.9 2,443.8 2,694.3 2,982.3 3,201.7 3,494.9 3,677.6 r 3,914.3 2,327.8 2,599.4 2,853.5 3,155.5 3,523.4 3,830.6 4,137.1 4,340.2 r 4,675.0 3,882.5 4,258.0 4,642.0 5,176.0 5,923.5 6,733.3 7,596.9 8,310.7 9,052.1 6.8 6.5 8.5 9.6 5.7 12.4 17.0 3.6 5.1 8.9 10.0 8.8 11.8 8.3 8.5 9.5 3.5 5.5 10.2 12.3 9.2 10.3 10.7 7.4 9.2 5.2 6.4 9.6 9.7 9.0 11.5 14.4 13.7 12.8 9.4 8.9 1988- July 782.5 782.4 783.7 785.4 786.6 790.3 3,023.9 3,029.7 3,035.0 3,042.2 3,059.3 3,069.4 3,839.1 3,851.1 3,860.5 3,877.2 3,897.2 r 3,914.3 4,565.1 4,583.6 4,591.7 4,612.5 4,638.4 P 4,675.0 8,718.8 8,784.3 8,850.0 8,912.4 8,988.6 9,052.1 6.5 6.0 5.3 3.7 4.1 3.6 6.5 5.4 4.5 3.5 4.0 3.8 7.5 6.4 5.6 5.2 5.4 5.2 8.9 9.0 9.0 8.9 9.3 9.3 786.3 787.4 786.3 783.1 773.3 770.3 777.3 3,065.7 3,069.2 3,078.2 3,080.0 3,070.7 3,086.0 3,118.1 3,918.7 3,927.8 3,948.9 3,956.2 3,951.2 3,969.0 4,000.6 4,678.3 4,690.4 4,724.4 4,742.1 4,737.6 4,739.2 9,107.2 9,172.3 9,229.4 9,285.1 9,344.0 9,397.4 1.0 1.3 .7 -.6 -3.4 -5.0 23 2.8 2.6 2.9 2.5 .7 1.1 3.4 4.2 4.0 4.6 4.1 2.8 2.8 4.2 9.1 9.0 8.8 8.5 8.1 7.8 Period 198019811982: 19831984: 198519861987: 1988- Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989: Jan Feb ' .. Mar ' May ' July p 1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinaneial sectors; data from flow of hinds accounts. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earli- 26 L MS plus other liquid assets Debt Debt of domestic nonfinaneial sectors (monthly average) 1 Ml er at an annual rate. NOTE.-—See p. 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. M2 M3 Debt COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Period DeCur- mand rency deposits Other checkable deposits (OCDs) Overnight repurchase agreements (EPs), net, plus overnight Eurodollars NSA Money market mutual fund balances General purpose and broker/ dealer NSA Institution only Money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) NSA Savings deposits Small denomination tune deposits 1 Large denomination time deposits ' NSA Term repurchase agreements (EPs) Term Eurodollars (net) NSA NSA 50.3 67.5 81.7 91.5 82.9 76.1 84.9 90.8 105.8 Savings bonds Shortterm Treasury securities Bankers' acceptances Commercial paper 1980: Dec 1981- Dec 1982: Dec 1983- Dec 1984: Dec 1985- Dec 1986: Dec 1987- Dec 1988: Dec 115.2 122.5 132.6 146.3 156.1 167.8 180.5 196.4 211.8 261.5 231.5 234.2 238.7 244.2 267.3 303.2 288.3 288.6 31.3 80.8 105.3 132.2 146.4 179.5 235.8 260.4 282.3 28.3 35.9 38.8 53.8 56.3 70.2 78.3 78.3 78.3 61.6 150.6 185.2 138.2 167.5 176.5 208.0 221.1 239.4 15.2 38.0 51.1 43.2 62.7 64.5 84.4 89.6 87.6 0.0 .0 43.2 379.2 416.9 513.5 572.5 526.3 502.7 400.2 344.0 356.9 305.6 285.4 301.6 371.0 416.4 431.3 728.6 823.2 851.0 784.0 886.3 882.6 853.9 914.1 1,025.2 260.1 302.5 326.8 327.4 417.2 436.6 439.0 487.4 r 537.8 34.0 36.0 34.5 51.8 61.9 65.6 84.0 109.1 123.1 72.3 67.8 68.0 71.1 74.2 79.4 91.7 100.4 109.1 133.5 149.4 183.6 211.9 260.7 300.1 282.3 257.5 275.2 32.1 40.0 44.5 45.0 45.4 42.0 37.2 44.7 40.6 98.8 105.3 113.6 133.2 160.7 207.4 231.0 260.3 335.8 1988: July 206.4 207.0 208.6 209.7 210.5 211.8 290.4 289.9 288.8 288.9 287.7 288.6 278.5 278.3 279.0 279.4 281.0 282.3 77.6 79.9 77.3 76.0 75.6 78.3 229.6 230.8 231.0 231.3 237.4 239.4 84.8 84.0 83.7 84.6 87.4 87.6 522.0 517.7 511.4 507.5 506.7 502.7 429.7 430.9 430.5 429.2 431.8 431.3 981.0 988.3 998.7 1,009.7 1,017.8 1,025.2 514.0 519.4 526.7 532.0 534.4 r 537.8 125.6 97.1 106.8 123.8 102.8 107.4 122.3 ' 102.8 107.9 124.7 100.2 108.4 127.5 101.6 108.7 123.1 105.8 109.1 268.7 272.6 272.8 273.3 268.4 275.2 40.7 41.2 41.7 41.3 40.5 40.6 309.8 311.3 308.8 312.3 323.7 335.8 213.4 214.3 215.6 215.9 216.4 217.4 218.0 284.0 284.8 284.3 281.4 278.2 275.0 279.0 281.3 280.9 279.1 278.5 271.3 270.7 273.2 81.6 78.8 77.2 73.9 72.1 73.9 78.1 241.7 247.2 255.5 259.1 258.9 265.1 274.6 89.3 89.6 87.6 87.7 91.6 95.1 98.2 495.2 485.3 480.3 471.3 457.0 456.9 459.8 427.8 424.6 420.8 412.8 404.7 402.0 401.5 1,035.7 1,048.3 1,061.0 1,083.1 1,105.8 1,118.5 1,126.3 ' 544.5 r 551.7 ' 558.9 567.8 572.3 573.3 573.9 124.1 ' 100.5 127.1 r99.9 129.4 ' 105.3 127.0 101.1 127.2 100.3 99.0 126.9 99.4 120.9 109.7 ' 274.4 110.6 267.8 111.5 ' 273.5 112.3 278.0 112.9 278.8 113.8 264.7 40.6 39.9 41.2 41.5 41.1 41.2 334.9 344.2 349.2 354.2 353.5 350.5 Sept Oc? Nov Dec 1989: Jan Feb Mar May ' July" r 1 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than 1100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. NOTE.-—Travelers checks of nonfaank issuers are a component of money stock but are not shown here. Source: Board of Governl)ra o( the Federal Reserve System. AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE [Averages of daily figures; millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal Reserve (NSA) Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements Reserves of depository institutions Period Total Nonborrowed Nonborrowed plus extended credit Required Monetary base Total Seasonal Extended credit Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 33,401 35,315 37,388 39,184 42,321 48,493 58,140 58,693 60,706 31,711 34,679 36,754 38,410 39,134 47,175 57,313 57,916 58,990 31,714 34,827 36,940 38,412 41,739 47,674 57,616 58,399 60,234 32,887 34,996 36,888 38,623 41,468 47,436 56,771 57,665 59,666 152,525 161,043 173,011 188,303 201,889 219,510 241,448 257,991 275,501 1,690 636 634 774 3,186 1,318 827 777 1,716 116 54 33 96 113 56 38 93 130 3 148 186 2 2,604 499 303 483 1,244 1988: July 61,058 60,903 60,824 60,862 60,853 60,706 57,618 57,663 57,985 58,562 57,991 58,990 60,157 60,316 60,043 60,343 60,314 60,234 60,051 59,950 59,852 59,800 59,733 59,666 270,308 270,979 272,420 273,659 274,380 275,501 3,440 3,241 2,839 2,299 2,861 1,716 376 423 421 332 186 130 2,538 2,653 2,059 1,781 2,322 1,244 60,370 60,260 59,854 59,463 58,740 58,350 58,699 58,708 58,773 58,041 57,174 57,019 56,860 58,005 59,754 59,822 59,376 58,880 58,217 r 57,776 58,111 59,226 59,106 58,896 58,686 57,709 57,445 57,733 276,784 277,553 278,615 r 278,675 278,329 279,056 279,984 1,662 1,487 1,813 2,289 1,720 1,490 694 76 97 139 213 345 431 497 1,046 1,050 1,334 1,707 1,197 917 106 1980: 1981: 19821983: 19841985: 1986' 19871988: Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989- Jan Feb Mar May T 3 July". Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK LOANS AND SECURITIES Total commercial bank loans and leases rose 1.1 percent in July; commercial and industrial loans rose 1.2 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,800 2,800 ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 LOANS AND LEASES 800 800 400 400 U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 200 200 T 160 160 OTHER SECURITIES • 120 1983 1982 1985 1984 Mill l l l H l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l 1981 1987 1986 • SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 120 1989 1988 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted *] All commercial banks Loans and leases Period 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1988: 1989: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July"... Total loans and securities 2 U.S. Government securities 1,307.7 1,401.5 1,553.6 1,723.7 1,911.4 2,094.5 2,239.6 2,417.2 179.3 201.7 259.2 260.2 270.7 309.6 335.5 361.4 350.9 353.1 355.6 358.8 361.4 360.4 361.8 368.8 370.7 373.5 373.8 374.4 2,377.6 2,381.5 2,401.4 2,410.2 2,417.2 2,422.8 2,451.9 2,464.9 2,470.9 2,486.3 2,496.8 2,518.1 Other securities 160.9 165.7 170.6 142.6 181.4 196.5 195.3 194.0 196.5 195.2 196.8 195.9 194.0 189.6 190.4 189.7 187.2 186.4 r 185.8 184.6 Total 2 Commercial and industrial 967.5 1,034.1 1,123.9 1,321.0 1,459.3 1,588.4 1,708.8 1,861.9 355.4 392.6 414.1 472.9 499.7 536.2 562.7 601.9 1,830.1 1,833.2 1,848.9 1,855.6 1,861.9 597.4 598.1 601.6 601.8 601.9 606.6 619.0 617.8 620.6 626.3 624.9 632.2 1,872.9 1,899.7 1,906.5 1,913.1 1,926.5 1,937.3 1,959.1 Real estate Individual 284.1 182.5 188.2 212.9 253.8 294.8 315.9 329.5 355.5 347.7 350.2 351.6 353.0 355.5 357.9 358.9 360.6 362.9 365.4 366.0 367.0 299.8 330.8 376.3 425.8 494.0 589.0 672.0 643.0 650.3 659.8 665.3 672.0 678.9 685.6 691.8 699.5 705.5 712.0 719.8 3 Data are prorated averages of Wednesday figures for domestically chartered banks and averages of month-end data for foreign-related institutions. Data beginning January 1984 are not strictly comparable with data for earlier periods, largely because beginning January 1984 certain obligations of States and political subdivisions are included in loans rather than in other securities. 28 2 Securi- ty 21.5 25.4 28.1 34.3 42.7 40.1 34.4 38.5 39.6 36.5 38.5 38.2 38.5 37.7 44.7 43.6 40.0 38.0 41.1 40.3 Nonhank financial institutions Agricultural 29.9 31.3 30.5 31.4 32.5 33.1 36.2 39.2 40.1 36.1 35.0 31.9 30.0 31.1 30.7 30.4 30.2 30.0 30.3 30.6 29.7 29.2 29.0 r 30.6 31.7 31.6 29.4 30.7 29.6 29.6 29.8 30.3 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.4 State and political subdivisions 0.0 .0 3.3 46.0 56.7 58.4 52.5 46.8 48.2 48.0 48.5 47.7 46.8 44.4 44.5 44.6 44.6 44.6 44.5 44.3 Foreign banks Foreign official institutions Lease financing receivables 7.2 5.9 9.4 7.9 6.0 12.7 13.3 13.7 16.0 19.0 22.3 18.1 14.8 13.4 11.1 r 9.7 9.6 7.5 7.6 8.0 7.2 7.6 8.1 7.6 7.8 8.5 8.2 8.3 r 9.4 r 9.3 8.9 Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. r 5.9 5.3 4.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 r 4.9 r 4.9 4.7 4.5 24.5 29.2 28.1 28.5 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.8 30.0 29.9 30.4 Other 23.1 26.6 31.8 31.2 36.3 39.4 42.1 r 44.8 52.2 49.1 47.5 r 47.0 r 44.8 44.4 r 42.7 r 45.2 r 42.9 r 43.1 r 43.8 49.7 SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual ratesj Uses Sources External Period Total Internal Credit market funds 1 Securities and mortgages Total Total Other 2 Increase in financial assets Discrepancy (sources less uses) 326.0 324.8 375.8 298.5 420.3 492.6 459.2 519.8 482.9 467.5 197.6 200.1 239.5 242.3 285.7 336.3 352.3 357.5 352.8 366.8 128.4 124.7 136.4 56.2 134.6 156.3 106.9 162.3 130.1 100.7 60.1 70.7 90.7 49.8 77.9 95.8 50.9 121.3 68.5 63.8 9.0 34.5 29.4 10.3 52.6 51 5.0 59.0 38.2 -18.2 51.1 36.2 61.2 39.5 25.3 100.9 46.0 62.3 30.3 82.0 68.2 54.0 45.7 6.4 56.8 60.5 55.9 41.0 61.6 37.0 368.1 342.1 383.6 303.5 385.8 502.7 435.3 456.7 437.3 448.3 238.3 243.7 286.5 256.5 270.7 370.6 342.3 333.9 361.7 395.7 129.8 98.4 97.0 47.0 115.1 132.1 93.0 122.8 75.6 52.6 -42.1 -17.3 -7.7 -4.9 34.5 -10.1 23.9 63.0 45.5 19.1 n m IV 464.4 465.8 475.8 463.5 359.9 363.6 365.3 378.3 104.5 102.2 110.5 85.2 100.5 54.0 67.5 32.8 20.5 -20.0 12.4 86 1 80.0 74.0 55.1 118.9 4.0 48.2 43.1 52.4 433.9 447.3 459.6 452.2 387.8 386.7 398.6 409.3 46.1 60.6 61.0 42.9 30.5 18.5 16.1 11.3 1" 431.4 355.8 75.6 -5.4 81 0 75.6 80.9 425.3 406.6 18.7 6.0 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988- I 1989: Loans and short-term paper Capital expenditures 3 Total 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained abroad. 2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Net change in installment credit outstanding 1 Installment credit outstanding (end of period) Period Total 1980: 19811982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 19871988: 1988: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec . Dec June July Aug Sept Oct Kov Dec NEW SERIES: 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr r May r. June p Other Total Automobile Revolving Mobile home Revolving 297,566 310,682 323,536 367,868 442,538 517,755 572,047 607,721 659,507 637,836 639,207 644,666 646,556 649,132 654,413 659,507 111,936 118,956 124,218 143,799 173,704 209,636 247,313 265,976 281,174 278,058 277,659 279,585 279,243 278,902 279,926 281,174 54,894 60,838 66,243 78,667 100,212 122,013 137,013 153,884 174,792 164,408 165,343 167,125 168,273 170,131 173,030 174,792 18,621 20,302 22,833 23,704 25,795 26,834 27,355 26,387 25,744 26,174 26,213 26,277 26,185 26,033 26,005 25,744 112,115 110,586 110,242 121,698 142,827 159,272 160,367 161,475 177,798 169,196 169,993 171,679 172,855 174,066 175,452 177,798 1,083 13,116 12,854 44,332 74,670 75,217 54,292 35,674 51,786 5,405 1,371 5,459 1,890 2,576 5,281 5,094 539 7,020 5,262 19,581 29,905 35,932 37,677 18,663 15,198 1,600 399 1,926 342 -341 1,024 1,248 1,537 5,944 5,405 12,424 21,545 21,801 15,000 16,871 20,908 2,303 935 1,782 1,148 1,858 2,899 1,762 414 1,681 2,531 871 2,091 1,039 521 -968 -643 -75 39 64 92 -152 28 -261 682,020 687,397 691,162 693,911 698,132 701,118 286,382 288,767 288,850 289,654 290,741 290,474 176,716 178,570 182,831 184,500 186,502 189,609 26,036 25,992 24,168 23,993 23,952 23,695 192,886 194,068 195,314 195,763 196,936 197,340 (2) 5,377 3,765 2,749 4,221 2,986 (2) 2,385 82 804 1,087 -267 (2) 1,854 4,261 1,670 2,002 3,107 <2) 44 -1,824 174 -41 257 1 For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month. 2 Because of break in series, net change not available. Mobile home Automobile Other -329 1 529 — 344 11,456 21,129 16,445 1,095 1,108 16,323 1,577 797 1,686 1,176 1,211 1,386 2,346 (2) 1,182 1,246 449 1,173 404 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates rose in August. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PfR ANNUM \6 -DISCOUNT — RATE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK SOURCE SEE TABIE a COUNCIL OE ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] U.S. Period 3-month bills (new issues) x 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 14.029 10.686 8.63 9.58 7.48 5.98 5.82 6.69 1986 1987 1988 19881 Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr.. .. May June July Aug p 7.02 7.28 7.34 7.68 8.09 8.29 8.48 8.83 8.70 8.40 8.22 7.92 7.91 Treasury security yields Constant maturities 2 3-year 10-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor's) 3 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody' s) * Prime commercial paper, 6 months * Discount rate (N.Y. P.R. Bank) 5 Prime rate charged by bants 5 New-home mortgage yields (FHLBB) 6 14.44 12.92 10.45 11.89 9.64 7.06 7.68 8.26 13.91 13.00 11.10 12.44 10.62 7.68 8.39 8.85 11.23 11.57 9.47 10.15 9.18 7.38 7.73 7.76 14.17 13.79 12.04 12.71 11.37 9.02 9.38 9.71 14.76 11.89 8.89 10.16 8.01 6.39 6.85 7.68 13.41 11.02 8.50 8.80 7.69 6.33 5.66 6.20 18.87 14.86 10.79 12.04 9.93 8.33 8.22 9.32 14.70 15.14 12.57 12.38 11.55 10.17 9.31 9.19 8.77 8.57 8.43 8.72 9.11 9.20 9.32 9.61 9.40 8.98 8.37 7.83 8.12 9.26 8.98 8.80 8.96 9.11 9.09 9.17 9.36 9.18 8.86 8.28 8.02 8.11 7.86 7.71 7.54 7.58 7.66 7.41 7.47 7.61 7.49 7.25 6.97 6.97 10.11 9.82 9.51 9.45 9.57 9.62 9.64 9.80 9.79 9.57 9.10 6.00-6.50 6.50-6.50 9.50-10.00 10.00-10.00 6.50-6.50 10.00-10.00 9.06 9.26 9.10 9.43 9.39 9.52 9.82 9.99 10.17 10.18 10.42 10.48 8.95 8.36 8.23 8.24 8.55 8.97 9.02 9.35 9.97 9.78 9.29 8.80 8.35 8.31 7.66 8.01 8.23 8.33 7.82 8.04 8.18 8.23 6.87 7.06 7.07 7.20 8.81 8.92 8.99 9.02 7.99 8.20 8.40 8.46 r 8.93 6.50-6.50 10.00-10.50 6.50-6.50 10.50-10.50 6.50-6.50 10.50-10.50 6.50-7.00 10.50-11.50 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 11.50-11.50 11.50-11.50 7 00 7 00 11.50-11.50 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 11.00-10.50 7.00- 10.50- 7.00-7.00 11.00-10.50 7 00 7 00 7 00 7 00 10.50-10.50 11.50-11.00 Week ended: 1989: Aug 5 12 19 26 Sept 2 1 7.65 7.94 8.01 7.99 7.94 Bank-discount basis. Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Series excludes public utility issues for January 17, 1984 through October 11, 1984 due to lack of appropriate issues. 2 30 7.00-7.00 7.00- 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50- 5 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. 6 Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moodv's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices rose in August. INDE>(, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 (RATIO SCALE) jCALE) INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 (RATIO! 240 220 200 180 Kjnpy COMPOS ITF STOCK PRICE (NYSE) 160 \ ~ 120 S 80 S~*~/~^~~' \ 140 ^"^ 120 r-^^ ^~^r~J 100 S 160 . ( r ~ 140 240 220 200 180 100 1 80 ^Vn 60 60 ^J ] I I I I 1 11 I r l 40 ii i ill in ii 1 1 ni 111 i 11 1981 1982 1983 1984 1986 1985 1987 40 1988 1989 PERC ENT PERCENT 20 15 NGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMM 10 ^ f^ - ^ ---_- (S&P) \ ~ ^ 5 >^ r fA 1 0 1 1 i i i 1982 1981 1 1 1983 1 1 1 1 1984 1 1 1 1 1985 . 1 1986 / p-—— ~ \ i i 1987 1 1 1 1988 Common stock prices l New York Stock Exchange indexes (E ec. 31, 1965 = 5 3) Composite Industrial Transportation 1 1 0 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE A ND STANDARD & POC)R'S CORPORATION Period 1 Common stock yields (percent) 5 2 Finance Utility Dow-Jones industrial average 3 Standard & Poor's composite index (194143=10) 4 Dividendprice ratio 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987. 1988 74.02 68.93 92.63 92.46 108.09 136.00 161.70 149.91 85.44 78.18 107.45 108.01 123.79 155.85 195.31 180.95 72.61 60.41 89.36 85.63 104.11 119.87 140.39 134.12 38.91 39.75 47.00 46.44 56.75 71.36 74.30 71.77 73.52 71.99 95.34 89.28 114.21 147.20 146.48 127.26 932.92 884.36 1,190.34 1,178.48 1,328.23 1,792.76 2,275.99 2,060.82 128.05 119.71 160.41 160.46 186.84 236.34 286.83 265.79 5.20 5.81 4.40 4.64 4.25 3.49 3.08 3.64 1988- Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 149.25 151.47 156.36 152.67 155.35 179.72 182.18 188.58 183.79 187.75 132.53 136.27 141.93 138.60 144.07 70.67 71.83 74.19 73.83 74.81 130.77 133.15 134.66 129.61 128.83 2,051.29 2,080.06 2,144.31 2,099.04 2,148.58 263.73 267.97 277.40 271.02 276.51 3.75 3.69 3.61 3.70 3.68 1989' Jan Feb Mar Apr May 160.40 165.08 164.60 169.38 175.30 180.76 185.15 192.83 194.62 200.00 199.20 204.81 211.51 216.75 221.74 231.17 153.09 162.66 160.14 164.32 168.88 173.47 179.32 196.97 75.87 77.84 77.66 79.69 84.07 87.95 90.40 92.89 132.26 137.19 137.91 143.26 146.60 154.08 157.78 164.84 2,234.68 2,304.30 2,283.11 2,348.91 2,439.55 2,494.90 2,554.03 2,689.01 285.41 294.01 292.71 302.25 313.93 323.73 r 331.93 346.39 3.64 3.59 3.68 3.59 3.52 3.44 3.38 188.17 191.86 193.55 192.14 192.40 225.74 229.48 231.94 230.41 230.84 183.91 187.06 195.58 196.97 199.16 91.26 93.57 93.48 92.33 92.33 1599.99 164.77 165.71 164.34 164.11 2,610.36 2,654.86 2,695.37 2,685.32 2,688.62 337.95 344.57 344.74 344.78 345.72 3.31 3.28 3.27 3.28 3.30 July Aug p Week ended: 1989: July 29 Aug 5 12 19 26 1 Average of daily closing prices. Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE. Includes 30 stocks. Includes 500 stocks. 5 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings- 2 3 4 Earningsprice ratio 11.96 11.60 8.03 10.02 8.12 6.09 5.48 8.01 8.36 8.56 8.46 price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first 10 months of fiscal 1989, there was a deficit of $123.8 billion, compared with a deficit of $142.2 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DC3LLARS BILLIOI-45 OF DOLLARS 1,200 RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS!^ 1,200 -""' 1,100 - -"""" **" 1,100 ^^^ 1,000 1,000 900 900 ^^ 800 -~ff 700 800 RECEIPTS1' — 700 600 600 A . i i i i - —i— —i 1 1 1 .N SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-V 0 -100 100 ^^^ ^\ 200 A ^1981 i ^ I 1982 i 1983 I 1984 I 1985 -200 I I 1986 1987 I 1988 I 1989 .._ IS 1990^ FISCAL YEARS V INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT Of THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Total Fiscal year or period Receipts Outlays On-budget Surplus or deficit (-) Receipts Outlays Gross Federal debt (end of period) Off-budget Surplus or deficit (-) Eeceipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) Total Held by the public 1976 Transition quarter 1977 1978 , 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 371.8 96.0 409.2 458.7 503.5 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 851.8 -73.7 -14.7 -53.6 -59.2 -40.2 -73.8 -78.9 -127.9 -207.8 -185.3 231.7 63.2 278.7 314.2 365.3 403.9 469.1 474.3 453.2 500.4 302.2 76.6 328.5 369.1 403.5 476.6 543.0 594.3 661.2 686.0 70 5 -13.3 49 7 -54.9 38 2 -72.7 73 9 -120.0 -208.0 -185.6 66.4 18.0 76.8 85.4 98.0 113.2 130.2 143.5 147.3 166.1 69.6 19.4 80.7 89.7 100.0 114.3 135.2 151.4 147.1 165.8 -3.2 -1.4 -3.9 -4.3 -2.0 -1.1 50 -7.9 .2 .3 629.0 643.6 706.4 776.6 828.9 908.5 994.3 1,136.8 1,371.2 1,564.1 477.4 495.5 549.1 607.1 639.8 709.3 784.8 919.2 1,131.0 1,300.0 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 (estimates) 1 1990 (estimates) l 734.1 769.1 854.1 909.0 995.9 1,080.1 946.3 990.3 1,003.8 1,064.0 1,144.1 1,179.4 -212.3 -221.2 -149.7 155 1 -148.3 -99.2 547.9 568.9 640.7 667.5 731.1 793.3 769.5 806.8 810.0 861.4 933.2 957.1 -221.6 -237.9 -169.3 -193.9 -202.1 -163.8 186.2 200.2 213.4 241.5 264.7 286.8 176.8 183.5 193.8 202.7 211.0 222.3 9.4 16.7 19.6 38.8 53.8 64.5 1,817.0 2,120.1 2,345.6 2,600.8 2,853.5 3,084.8 1,499.4 1,736.2 1,888.1 2,050.2 2,177.8 2,279.2 883.9 939.9 -142.2 123 8 540.9 595.0 716.5 766.5 -175.7 -171.5 200.8 221.1 167.4 173.4 33.4 47.8 2,548.5 2,810.2 2,013.6 2,147.4 Cumulative total, first 10 months: 2 Fiscal year 1988 Fiscal year 1989 741.7 816.1 1 Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the Budget, Office of Management and Budget, July 18, 1989. Data for 1990 include asset sales. 2 Data from Monthly Treasury Statement for July 1989, issued August 1989. 32 NOTE.—Data are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1990, January 1989, except as noted. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 10 months of fiscal 1989, receipts were $74.4 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $56.0 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 500 RECEIPTS!' 400 . INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES_ 400 300 300 SOCIAL IN INSURANCE TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS 200 CORPORATION. INCOME TAXES 200 OTHER RECEIPTS 100 100 Tf. 0 0 900 900 OUTLAYS-!/ 800 -NONDEFENSE 800 A,- 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 . NATIONAL DEFENSE 300 300 200 200 1981 1983 1982 1985 1984 1986 1987 1989 1988 1990 FISCAL YEARS J/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Pillions of dollars] On-budget and off-budget outlays On-budget and off-budget receipts Fiscal year Total 1976 1977.. .. 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 (estimates) * 1990 (estimates)1. Cumulative total, first 10 months: 2 Fiscal year 1988 Fiscal year 1989 1 2 298.1 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes 131.6 157.6 181.0 217.8 244.1 41.4 54.9 60.0 65.7 64.6 61.1 49.2 37.0 56.9 90.8 106.5 121.0 138.9 157.8 182.7 201.5 265.2 283.9 303.3 334.3 600.6 666.5 285.9 297.7 288.9 298.4 734.1 769.1 854.1 334.5 349.0 392.6 909.0 995.9 1,080.1 401.2 445.3 484.6 61.3 63.1 83.9 94.5 105.8 117.0 741.7 816.1 327.5 363.7 72.1 81.2 617.8 See footnote 1, page 32. Data from Monthly Treasury Statement for July 1989, issued August 1989. Social insurance taxes and contributions 209.0 239.4 361.5 387.5 277.3 301.7 National defense Other Total Net interest Other 15.8 19.3 22.8 26.5 32.1 39.1 46.6 52.6 57.5 60.8 61.0 61.5 66.4 86.5 99.7 107.7 122.6 112.7 73.9 85.1 93.9 104.1 118.5 139.6 156.0 170.7 178.2 26.7 29.9 35.4 42.6 52.5 68.7 85.0 89.8 111.1 82.8 93.0 114.7 119.6 131.4 133.5 125.4 122.3 118.6 33.5 35.9 40.0 44.5 49.6 56.4 65.8 70.2 75.1 78.9 86.2 97.1 128.2 119.8 123.3 129.3 136.6 145.4 188.6 198.8 249.1 129.4 136.0 138.6 151.7 169.1 176.3 131.8 142.1 125.9 139.4 158.3 142.4 36.7 40.3 64.5 69.4 108.4 113.5 182.5 193.6 125.7 139.6 112.1 126.8 89.6 97.2 104.5 116.3 134.0 157.5 185.3 87.9 95.1 102.3 113.6 130.9 153.9 180.7 209.9 227.4 204.4 220.9 6.4 6.4 7.5 7.5 12.7 13.1 12.3 11.8 15.9 15.7 17.3 18.5 20.5 23.2 26.9 27.4 28.6 30.4 371.8 73.0 73.1 74.3 78.9 83.3 91.0 946.3 990.3 1,003.8 1,064.0 1,144.1 1,179.4 252.7 273.4 282.0 290.4 245.2 265.5 274.0 301.2 296.3 292.7 286.9 16.2 14.2 11.6 10.5 10.7 16.4 64.9 69.5 883.9 939.9 243.9 248.9 237.1 241.8 10.3 7.9 851.8 Social security International affairs 34.3 36.6 37.7 40.8 50.6 69.5 69.3 65.6 71.8 409.2 458.7 503.5 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 Income security Department of Defense, military Health Total 281.9 Medicare 207.4 219.3 232.4 NOTE.—Data are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1990, January 1989, except as noted. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the second quarter of 1989, according to preliminary estimates, Federal receipts rose $15.7 billion (annual rate) and Federal expenditures rose $16.6 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES EXPENDITURES - 1,000 1,000 800 800 RECEIPTS 600 600 400 400 200 200 SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-) v -200 I I I 1981 1 I I 1 I I 1984 1983 1982 I \ I -200 1 1985 I | 1986 1 I 1 1987 1988 I I 1989 CALENDAR YFARS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Government expenditures Federal Government receipts Period Total Fiscal year: 1985 1986 1987 1988 Calendar year: 1985 1986 1987 1988 1982: TV 1983- IV 1984: IV 1985- IV 1986- IV 1987- III IV 1988- I II Ill IV 1989- I r II Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Contributions for social insurance Total Purchases of goods and services Transfer Pa>'ments Grantsin-aid to State and local governments Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Surplus or deficit (-), national income and product accounts 776.8 815.2 897.3 958.6 340.4 357.0 401.2 408.0 74.6 81.1 97.7 108.3 55.9 50.9 53.4 55.8 305.8 326.1 345.0 386.4 962.3 1,028.0 1,060.4 1,104.0 341.5 368.6 375.5 378.6 374.0 394.6 411.2 432.7 97.8 107.4 103.1 108.6 128.3 134.6 138.8 149.0 20.7 22.8 31.9 35.1 -0.1 .0 .1 — .1 -185.5 -212.8 -163.1 -145.4 788.7 827.9 911.4 972.4 633.1 675.5 742.7 805.3 853.8 921.5 937.4 346.4 361.4 405.8 413.0 55.1 50.5 53.8 56.7 47.6 53.6 56.2 53.5 50.8 53.8 54.5 310.9 332.1 350.8 391.3 236.1 259.8 290.7 317.7 337.9 352.2 359.7 985.6 1,034.8 1,072.8 1,118.3 835.7 844.7 930.2 1,017.5 1,042.8 1,065.5 1,101.7 355.2 366.5 381.6 381.3 293.2 276.1 326.0 376.6 368.8 384.5 388.1 380.1 399.9 414.3 438.2 347.4 352.5 362.1 385.8 405.8 414.3 421.9 99.7 106.8 102.6 111.4 84.5 86.0 96.3 103.5 103.0 101.7 102.2 130.1 135.6 141.7 151.4 87.2 101.0 125.3 132.7 136.0 142.5 147.3 20.3 26.0 32.6 36.0 23.4 29.1 21.0 19.0 29.2 22.7 41.9 o .0 .0 .0 -196.9 -206.9 -161.4 -145.8 303.0 291.9 326.0 355.3 376.2 408.1 420.0 76.3 83.8 101.0 111.4 46.4 70.2 69.7 78.8 88.9 107.4 103.1 .0 .0 .6 .0 .0 .2 2 -202.6 -169.2 -187.5 -212.2 -189.0 944.7 973.2 977.3 994.6 1,036.2 1,051.9 402.7 417.5 411.4 420.3 446.8 465.0 104.2 111.6 114.0 115.8 117.0 108.4 55.9 55.9 57.4 57.8 58.0 58.2 382.0 388.2 394.5 400.6 414.3 420.2 1,096.5 1,114.7 1,099.8 1,162.1 1,183.7 1,200.3 374.1 377.1 367.5 406.4 399.0 407.8 433.0 434.4 438.0 447.6 460.4 466.7 110.1 112.2 111.0 112.2 118.7 118.4 144.9 249.9 153.9 157.0 167.0 171.9 34.4 41.2 29.4 38.9 38.5 35.4 .0 .0 .0 .0 -151.8 — 141.5 -122.5 -167.6 .0 .0 -147.5 -148.4 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 34 -143.9 -164.4 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Industrial production (1977 = 100; seasonally adjusted) Period United States 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988' June July Sept Oct.. Nov Dec . 1989- Jan Feb Mar Japan France Germany Italy Canada Japan France Germany 99.8 96.7 98.5 102.2 102.4 107.9 110.2 114.1 '118.2 82.4 90.9 96.5 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6 118.3 76.1 85.6 94.8 100.4 104.7 108.9 113.4 118.4 123.2 90.9 95.4 98.0 99.9 102.1 104.2 104.9 105.0 105.7 72.2 81.9 91.7 100.3 108.0 114.3 117.2 121.1 124.3 86.7 92.2 97.1 100.3 102.7 104.9 104.6 105.0 106.2 63.2 75.4 87.7 100.8 111.5 121.0 128.5 134.4 141.1 78.5 87.9 95.4 99.8 104.8 111.2 114.9 119.7 125.6 Italy United Kingdom 108.6 111.0 103.1 109.2 121.4 123.7 125.1 129.8 137.2 104.8 106.9 96.5 102.7 115.2 121.4 123.2 129.6 137.2 119.0 120.3 120.7 124.5 136.1 141.0 140.8 145.7 159.1 107.2 106.1 105.0 105.0 106.1 106.1 107.2 109.4 114.3 108.0 114.8 105.9 113.0 102.7 109.5 103.3 105.9 106.2 109.5 111.0 110.7 113.0 '114.7 113.7 '119.3 118.1 '126.4 136.5 138.0 138.5 138.6 139.4 139.9 140.4 137.9 137.4 138.7 138.8 137.8 137.1 137.9 158.4 156.4 160.8 161.6 160.2 165.0 166.1 114.9 116.0 116.0 117.2 113.2 118.0 117.3 118.5 116.1 121.3 120.0 119.4 119.1 121.2 '125.4 '128.5 '126.0 '124.1 '127.6 '129.1 '132.2 118.7 119.0 119.0 119.6 119.0 119.6 118.8 118.0 118.5 119.0 119.8 120.2 129.3 120.5 123.0 123.7 124.1 124.2 124.8 125.1 125.1 105.5 105.3 105.6 106.4 106.9 106.5 106.2 124.2 124.7 125.0 125.3 125.6 125.8 126.0 106.3 106.3 106.3 106.3 106.4 106.7 106.9 140.5 140.9 141.5 142.2 143.3 144.5 145.0 125.2 125.4 126.8 127.4 128.7 129.2 129.6 118.2 137.5 167.3 '138.3 164.5 '117.4 '138.0 172.5 '116.6 '139.3 r 166.3 120.7 139.5 '167.3 118.0 121.2 120.5 121.3 124.3 '118.6 121.3 127.9 130.3 126.9 127.0 '118.1 '117.6 '117.8 '117.8 116.4 116.5 121.1 121.6 122.3 123.1 123.8 124.1 124.4 125.7 126.6 127.2 127.6 128.9 129.6 130.4 106.0 105.7 106.2 108.1 108.7 108.6 126.5 126.8 127.2 128.0 128.5 108.1 108.4 108.6 109.2 109.5 109.6 146.1 147.3 148.0 149.0 149.6 150.3 1506 130.4 131.4 131.9 134.3 135.1 135.6 140.8 140.5 140.7 r 141.7 ' 141.6 r !41.4 141 7 May June July p 1 Canada Consumer prices (1982-84=100) United States * United Kingdom 170.0 Data relate to all urban consumers Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and International Trade Administration). U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] General merchandise imports (customs value) 3 Merchandise exports (f.a.s. value) l 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988- June July Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989- Jan Feb Mar May' 1 2 Capital goods except automotive Automotive vehicles parts, and engines Consumer goods (nonfood) except automotive Other General merchandise imports (c.i.f. value) 244.0 258.0 325.7 345.3 365.4 406.2 441.0 17.1 18.2 21.0 21.9 24.4 24.8 24.8 112.0 107.0 123.7 113.9 101.3 111.0 118.3 35.4 40.9 59.8 65.1 71.8 84.5 101.4 33.3 40.8 53.5 66.8 78.2 85.2 87.7 39.7 44.9 60.0 68.3 79.4 88.7 95.9 6.5 6.3 7.8 9.4 10,4 12.1 12.8 4.0 3.5 3.4 3.6 4.4 4.0 3.6 37.3 35.1 37.6 36.8 37.1 38.1 39.7 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 10.2 9.7 10.2 9.3 9.9 9.8 10.2 8.8 7.9 8.9 8.7 8.2 9.1 9.1 7.3 6.6 7.2 7.6 7.7 7.5 8.0 8.0 7.9 8.1 8.0 8.1 8.3 9.0 4.7 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.0 37.9 38.2 39.5 39.0 40.5 39.1 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.0 10.7 10.0 11.0 11.3 11.7 11.3 9.0 9.3 9.3 9.1 9.9 9.5 7.4 7.6 7.7 7.3 7.2 6.7 7.7 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.5 8.4 Foods, feeds, and beverages Capital goods except automotive Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines Consumer goods (nonfood) except automotive Other 2 H6.4 205.6 224.0 4 218.8 4 227.2 254.1 322.4 31.3 30.9 31.5 24.0 22.3 24.3 32.3 61.7 56.7 61.7 58.5 57.3 66.7 85.1 72.7 67.2 72.0 73.9 75.8 86.2 109.2 15.7 16.8 20.6 22.9 21.7 24.6 29.3 14.3 13.4 13.3 12.6 14.2 17.7 23.1 20.7 20.5 24.0 27.3 35.9 34.6 43.4 26.7 26.6 27.5 27.6 27.9 27.5 28.9 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.8 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 6.8 7.0 7.4 8.8 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.4 10.1 2.2 2.1 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.3 29.0 28.8 30,1 30.8 30.5 30.9 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 7.1 7.5 7.6 8.0 7.9 8.0 9.4 9.3 9.9 10.1 9.8 10.5 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.9 Total 1982 1983 1984 Foods feeds, and beverages Industrial supplies and materials Industrial supplies and materials Period 2 Includes Department of Defense Military Assistance Program grant-aid shipments. Includes undocumented exports to Canada. Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. 4 Total exports are on a revised statistical month basis; end-use categories are on a statistical 3 Trade halance Principal end-use commodity category Principal end-use commodity category Total Exports (f.a.s) less imports (customs value) Exports ft.a.s) less imports (c.i.f.) 254.9 269.9 346.4 352.5 382.3 424.4 459.5 -27.5 -52.4 -101.7 -126.5 -138.3 -152.1 -118.5 -38.4 -64.2 -122.4 -133.6 -155.1 -170.3 -137.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 38.8 36.5 39.2 38.2 38.6 39.6 41.3 -10.6 -8.5 -10.1 -9.2 -9.2 — 10.5 -10.8 -12.1 -9.9 -11.7 -10.6 -10.7 -12.1 -12.5 .9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 39.5 39.7 41.2 40.7 42.2 40.7 -8.9 -9.4 -9.5 -8.3 -10.1 -8.2 -10.5 -10.9 -11.2 -9.9 -11.7 -9.8 NOTE.—Data shown include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the second quarter, the merchandise trade deficit fell to $27.7 billion, from $28.4 billion (revised) in the first quarter. BILL ONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLL/\RS* 10 10 5 5 r-'/O ^—--\'"1 0 0 IV -5 A ' \ A\ -5 V —X \ A -10 \\ \\\ -15 15 \\ N . t -20 BALANCE ON GOODS A Kin SFRUirpt; 'O-N "X V1 -25 %N ^V -30 /\ v -\\_ \ \ \/ -40 -25 x 'V-^-v. -35 -45 -20 \\_.^jir. X J* )--30 "v^xS" / -35 BALANC E ON CURRENT A :COUNT -40 ERCHANDISE 1 1 1 1 1 1 1981 1 1 1983 1982 1 I 1 1 BALANCE 1 1 1 1985 1984 1 1 I 1986 1 1 1 1 1 1 1988 1987 1 1 1 -45 1989 SEASONALLY AOJUSTED OURCE: DEPARTMEN OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits ( —)] Merchandise Investment income 3 12 Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1986: I n in IV 1987- I n m IV 1988: I n m IV 1989: I" 1 2 3 Exports Imports 224,269 237,085 211,198 201,820 219,900 215,935 223,367 250,266 319,251 53,899 56,796 56,182 56,490 57,255 60,015 64,297 68,699 76,447 78,471 80,604 83,729 r 87,919 90,866 -249,749 -265,063 -247,642 -268,900 -332,422 338 083 -368,425 409 766 -446,466 -89,549 -90,812 -92,983 -95,081 95 916 -99^834 - 104,903 -109,113 - 109,893 - 109,882 -110,943 -115,748 r - 116,297 — 118,584 Net balance Eeceipts Payments -25,480 72,506 -42,119 30,387 52 329 34,083 27 978 86,412 -36,444 83,548 -54,884 28,664 67 080 77,251 52 376 24,875 -112,522 85,908 -67,419 18,489 122 148 88,832 -62,901 25,931 -145,058 88,615 -66,968 21,647 159 500 104,703 82 420 22,283 -127,215 107,775 - 105,548 2,227 -35,650 23,970 -17,357 6,613 -34,016 22,078 -17,533 4,545 -36,801 21,744 -15,729 6,015 -38,591 20,822 -16,350 4,472 -38,661 25,117 19 755 5,362 -39,819 22,744 -2o',554 2,190 -40,606 23,578 -21,904 1,674 -20,207 -40,414 33,265 13,058 -33,446 26,750 -23,955 2,795 -31,411 23,148 -25,613 -2,465 -30,339 24,720 -27,310 -2,590 -32,019 33,159 -28,670 4,489 r -28,378 26,862 -30,370 -3,508 -27,718 Excludes military. Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the 36 Net Net military transactions 2 577 -1,523 474 -343 2 099 -3,557 4 576 -2,857 4 606 -1,411 -1,298 -1,089 -777 -176 -210 -1,031 -1,440 -964 -1,033 -1,006 -1,604 -1,482 Net travel and transportation receipts 997 144 992 -4,227 -7,885 -9,832 -8,031 -7,324 -2,633 -2,452 -1,465 -1,874 -2,241 -2',088 -1,279 -1,993 -1,854 -719 -155 94 -464 Other services, net 3 Balance on goods and services Remittances, pensions, and other unilateral transfers * Balance on current account 7 593 1,533 7,794 9,126 8,163 11,085 15,810 -7,647 9 188 -6,997 11,436 2,191 12,264 -34,510 -9/776 -44,286 12 468 -104,186 12,299 -91,718 112 682 12,351 -97,256 -15,426 15 778 133 249 18,547 -117,470 17,909 -129,488 -14,212 -143,700 14 656 - 126,548 20,335 111 892 4,620 -28,280 -3,068 -31,348 4,581 -27,653 -4,199 -31,852 4,539 -29,210 -4,376 -33,586 4,807 -32,330 -4,136 -36,466 4,250 -31,190 -3,137 -34,327 4,372 -35,555 -3,265 -38,820 4,555 -36,687 -3,225 -39,912 4,734 -26,055 -4,586 -30,641 4,787 -28,682 -3,364 -32,046 5,042 -30,586 -2,899 -33,485 5,126 -28,964 -3,376 -32,340 -23,659 -5,018 -28,677 5,381 5,823 -27,265 -3,420 -30,685 United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $22.6 billion in the first quarter of 1989, compared with an increase of $30.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 1988. Liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, increased $10.4 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $32.2 billion in the fourth quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* CHANGE IN U.S. ASSETS ABROAD, NET 20 20 -20 -20 -40 -40 1989 1P81 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Total 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1986: I n m IV 1987: I n m IV 1988: I [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] • U.S. assets abroad, net Foreign assets in the U.S., net2 Allocations [increase /capital outflow (— )] [increase/capital inflow ( + )] of special drawing Other U.S. U.S. U.S. Foreign Other official rights Governprivate foreign Total official (SDRs) reserve ment assets assets assets assets 1 z assets Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) -8,155 5 175 -4,965 -1,196 -3,131 -3,858 312 9,149 -3,566 -5,162 -72,802 -5,097 -100,679 -6,131 -110,058 5006 43 576 -5,489 -13,685 2 821 -25,950 -2,024 -97,954 997 86 363 2,999 -81,543 58,112 83,032 93,746 84,869 102,621 130,012 221,605 218,039 219,299 15,497 4,960 3,593 5,845 3,140 -1,083 35,594 45,193 38,882 42,615 78,072 90,154 79,023 99,481 131,096 186,011 172,847 180,418 -15,401 -24,763 -26,078 -33,422 -115 16 280 132 1,956 3,419 32 3,742 1,503 39 -7,380 2,272 -4,000 -232 -238 -1,565 11 -15,054 -24,541 24793 -33,565 39,048 50,291 69,927 62,339 2,720 15,838 15,785 1,251 36,328 34,453 54,142 61,088 7,701 6,324 - 10,263 7,549 40 -195 308 843 6,763 -25,856 -26,316 -40,955 33,381 51,134 73,575 59,949 14,040 10,329 753 20,070 19,341 40,805 72,822 39,879 -7,813 10,318 -7,687 7,062 1 490 -885 1,961 3,413 4,528 -15,273 32 467 -38,332 27,027 65,334 46,179 80,759 24,631 5,895 2 234 10,589 2,396 59,438 48,413 70,170 479 -15,729 24,047 -19,434 28 828 49,077 6,914 42,163 13,424 8,759 -22,632 -25,976 -36,370 IV 4,540 -16,119 -37,886 -32,648 1989: I" -31,816 1,012 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDRs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the IMF. 2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. Statistical discrepancy -86,118 -110,951 -121,153 49 777 -22,304 32 628 -99,665 76 218 -82,110 n m 1 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS 1,152 1,093 Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy U.S. official reserve assets, net * (unadjusted, end of period) 26,756 30,074 33,958 33,747 34,934 43,186 48,511 45,798 47,802 25,322 18,663 34,404 9,194 23,869 15,298 11,308 1,878 -10,641 3,515 3 306 -4,669 4,463 3,895 2559 -4,501 3,166 3,843 -3,714 -4,556 4,431 4,264 44,919 46,595 48,087 48,511 48,824 45,140 45,070 45,798 43,186 41,028 47,788 47,802 49,854 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING page Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures Nonfmancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Employment Cost Index—Private Industry Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base Bank Loans and Securities Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Consumer Installment Credit Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: p Preliminary. ' Revised. c Corrected. ... Not available (also, not applicable). NSA not seasonally adjusted. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, B.C. 20402. Price $2.25 (single copy) ($2.81 foreign). Subscription price: $24.00 per year; $30.00 for foreign mailing. 38 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1989 0—21-141