Full text of Economic Indicators : August 1986
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99th Congress, 2d Sess Economic Indicators AUGUST 1986 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1986 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) DAVID R. OBEY, Wisconsin, Chairman JAMES ABDNOR, South Dakota, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana) PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland) AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California) JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York) FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) DAN LUNGREN (California) OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine) BOBBI FIEDLER (California) SENATE WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho) MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia) ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York) PETE WILSON (California) LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas) WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland) SCOTT LILLY, Executive Director ROBERT J. TOSTERUD, Deputy Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS BERYL W. SPRINKEL, Chairman THOMAS G. MOORE, Member MICHAEL L. MUSSA, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—SlST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.50 a single copy ($3.13 foreign), or by subscription at $27.00 per year ($33.75 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 11 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING PROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to revised estimates for the second quarter, current-dollar gross national product (GNP) rose 3.0 percent (annual rate) or $30.6 billion. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 0.6 percent and the implicit price deflator rose 2.5 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 4,40U L RATES SEASONA LY ADJUSTED ANNUA ^-1 4,000 GN P 3,6001 DOLLARS^/1 IN CURREN" > NX''"' 3,200 , ,„ ••••__,-- „---'" x^ __. ^ ^ — ~* 3,600 ""\" I It-J ^^^ ^^-g*" "**3 4,000 — GNP 3,200 1982DOLLAF!S ^~ /^ 2,800 2,800 ^ 2,400 2,400 -^ ^ i2,000 2,000 1,600 \ \ \ 1978 SOURCE: DEPARTMEN 1 1 1 \ 1979 \ \ 1980 \ \ \ \ 1981 1 1 1 1 1 1983 1982 1 1 1 1 1984 1 1 1985 1 1 1 1,600 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISER i OF COMMERCE [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Govern ment purch ases of gooc s and services Exports s nd imports of goods $ nd services Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total National defense Nondefense and 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 2,249.7 2,508.2 2,732.0 3,052.6 3,166.0 3,405.7 3,765.0 3,998.1 1,403.5 1,566.8 1,732.6 1,915.1 2,050.7 2,234.5 2,428.2 2,600.5 416.8 454.8 437.0 515.5 447.3 502.3 662.1 661.1 4.1 18.8 32.1 33.9 26.3 -6.1 -58.7 -78.9 227.5 291.2 351.0 382.8 361.9 352.5 382.7 369.8 223.4 272.5 318.9 348.9 335.6 358.7 441 .4 448.6 425.2 467.8 530.3 588.1 641.7 675.0 733.4 815.4 161.8 178.0 208.1 242.2 272.7 283.5 311.3 354.1 108.9 121.9 142.7 167.5 193.8 214.4 235.0 259.4 52.9 56.1 65.4 74.8 78.9 69.1 76.2 94.7 263.4 289.9 322.2 345.9 369.0 391.5 422.2 461.3 2,221.0 2,495.2 2,740.3 3,028.6 3,190.5 3,412.8 3,700.9 3,987.0 1982: III IV 3,179.4 3,212.5 2,065.6 2,117.0 452.2 409.6 14.5 14.1 359.9 335.9 345.4 321.9 647.1 671.8 275.3 293.2 197.3 205.4 78.0 87.7 371.8 378.7 3,188.4 3,272.4 1983: I II Ill IV 3,265.8 3,367.4 3,443.9 3,545.8 2,146.6 2,213.0 2,262.8 2,315.8 428.3 481.3 519.7 579.8 22.7 -2.1 -19.3 -25.8 343.6 344.1 357.7 364.7 320.9 346.2 376.9 390.5 668.1 675.2 680.7 676.1 285.5 287.7 284.9 276.1 208.5 213.3 214.3 221.5 77.0 74.4 70.6 54.6 382.7 387.5 395.8 400.0 3,308.4 3,378.6 3,449.4 3,514.8 1984: I 3,670.9 3,743.8 3,799.7 3,845.6 2,363.8 2,416.1 2,445.6 2,487.2 659.5 657.5 670.3 661.1 -45.6 -63.2 -60.0 -66.1 373.4 382.1 389.2 386.2 419.0 445.3 449.1 452.2 693.2 733.3 743.8 763.4 283.4 315.2 317.2 329.1 227.1 233.7 234.5 244.9 56.3 81.6 82.7 84.2 409.8 418.1 426.6 434.3 3,575.4 3,683.9 3,735.3 3,808.9 3,909.3 3,965.0 4,030.5 4,087.7 2,530.9 2,576.0 2,627.1 2,667.9 650.6 667.1 657.4 669.5 -49.4 -77.1 -83.7 -105.3 378.4 370.0 362.3 368.2 427.9 447.1 446.0 473.6 777.3 799.0 829.7 855.6 333.7 340.9 360.9 380.9 248.9 255.1 265.5 268.0 84.8 85.8 95.5 112.9 443.5 458.1 468.8 474.7 3,883.9 3,945.9 4,027.4 4,090.8 4,149.2 4,179.8 2,697.9 2,735.3 708.3 684.7 -93.7 - 100.2 374.8 367.9 468.5 468.1 836.7 860.0 355.7 367.1 266.4 278.0 89.3 89.1 480.9 492.9 4,105.4 4,167.3 n Ill IV 1985: I II HI IV 1986: I II ' Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS [Billions of 1982 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] _ 1 i* nod 1978 1979 980 981 982 983 984 1985 Personal consumption expenditures Gross national product Ex jorts of go ods a nd service G ross privat e dome stic investrnent Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed Change in business inventories 3,115.2 3,192.4 3,187.1 3,248.8 3,166.0 3,279.1 3,489.9 3,585.2 2,004.4 2,000.4 2,024.2 2,050.7 2,146.0 2,246.3 2,324.5 362.1 389.4 379.2 395.2 366.7 361.2 422.2 461.4 178.0 170.8 137.0 126.5 105.1 149.3 170.6 177.2 36.8 15.0 -6.9 23.9 -24.5 -6.4 59.2 9.0 1,961.0 Govern nent purch ases of good s and serv ices Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total Total -26.8 3.6 57.0 49.4 26.3 -19.9 -83.6 -108.2 National defense Nondefense State and local Final sales 312.6 356.8 388.9 392.7 361.9 348.1 369.7 362.3 339.4 353.2 332.0 343.4 335.6 368.1 453.2 470.5 604.1 609.1 620.5 629.7 641.7 649.0 675.2 721.2 233.7 236.2 246.9 259.6 272.7 275.1 291.7 323.6 160.7 164.3 171.2 180.3 193.8 206.9 219.4 235.7 73.0 71.9 75.7 79.3 78.9 68.2 72.3 87.8 370.4 373.0 373.6 370.1 369.0 373.9 383.5 397.6 3,078.4 3,177.4 3,194.0 3,225.0 3,190.5 3,285.5 3,430.7 3,576.2 1982: III.. IV 3,154.5 3,159.3 2,051.8 2,078.7 358.0 352.3 100.1 115.8 -9.4 -59.3 11.7 11.7 359.5 336.0 347.8 324.3 642.5 660.1 273.8 289.5 197.0 201.4 76.9 88.2 368.6 370.6 3,164.0 3,218.6 1983: I II Ill IV 3,186.6 3,258.3 3,306.4 3,365.1 2,094.2 2,135.1 2,163.0 2,191.9 341.6 348.8 363.9 390.4 127.8 147.4 161.9 159.9 -42.3 -9.3 -1.0 27.0 16.1 -14.6 -35.0 -46.2 342.5 341.7 352.8 355.5 326.4 356.3 387.8 401.6 649.2 650.9 653.6 642.2 278.2 278.5 277.6 266.0 203.2 206.3 206.5 211.6 75.1 72.2 71.1 54.4 371.0 372.4 376.0 376.2 3,228.9 3,267.6 3,307.4 3,338.1 1984: I II Ill IV 3,444.7 3,487.1 3,507.4 3,520.4 2,213.8 2,246.3 2,253.3 2,271.7 394.4 419.5 427.1 447.6 169.7 173.2 171.2 168.3 85.1 57.0 60.6 33.9 -68.6 -87.2 -85.7 -92.7 361.3 367.0 375.5 375.0 429.9 454.2 461.2 467.7 650.2 678.2 681.0 691.5 271.2 296.3 295.6 303.8 214.4 219.0 218.4 225.9 56.8 77.3 77.1 77.9 379.0 381.8 385.4 387.7 3,359.6 3,430.0 3,446.8 3,486.4 1985: I II Ill 3,547.0 3,567.6 3,603.8 3,622.3 2,292.3 2,311.9 2,342.0 442.7 463.0 463.1 2,351.7 476.9 172.4 175.1 180.0 181.5 23.2 17.4 .7 -5.2 -78.8 -108.1 -113.8 -132.0 369.4 361.2 355.8 362.9 448.2 469.3 469.6 494.8 695.3 708.3 731.8 749.4 305.8 311.4 329.9 347.2 228.0 233.5 242.2 239.3 77.8 77.9 87.6 107.9 389.5 396.9 401.9 402.2 3,523.9 3,550.2 3,603.1 3,627.5 3,655.9 3,661.5 2,372.7 2,410.4 457.8 455.2 186.3 192.3 39.9 11.6 -125.9 -150.5 369.2 363.9 495.1 514.4 725.2 320.4 329.5 238.7 250.0 81.7 79.4 404.8 413.0 3,616.1 3,649.8 IV 1986: I 11 ' 742.4 , Bureau of Economic Analys 1 Source: Department < IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1982 = 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Personal c onsumption expen ditures Period national product 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total Durable goods Gross Ijrivate domestic i ivestment Nondurable goods Services Nonresidential Exports an , imports of goods amI services Gove nment pure lases of goo ds and senaces Federal Residential fixed Exports Imports National defense Nondefense State and local 72.2 78.6 85.7 94.0 100.0 103.9 107.9 111.5 71.6 78.2 86.6 94.6 100.0 104.1 108.1 111.9 76.9 82.1 89.2 95.7 100.0 102.1 103.8 104.5 71.9 80.0 89.4 96.9 100.0 102.1 105.0 107.5 69.8 75.6 83.9 92.6 100.0 106.2 111.7 117.3 71.5 77.8 85.1 93.4 100.0 98.8 98.7 99.3 72.6 81.4 89.4 96.6 100.0 102.2 106.3 108.2 72.8 81.6 90.2 97.5 100.0 101.3 103.5 102.1 65.8 77.1 96.0 101.6 100.0 97.4 97.4 95.4 69.2 75.4 84.3 93.3 100.0 103.1 106.7 109.4 67.8 74.2 83.4 92.9 100.0 103.6 107.1 110.0 72.4 78.0 86.4 94.3 100.0 101.4 105.5 107.9 71.1 77.7 86.2 93.4 100.0 104.7 110.1 116.0 III IV I II Ill IV 100.8 101.7 100.7 101.8 100.4 100.7 100.5 101.0 100.9 102.7 100.8 100.7 100.4 99.1 100.1 100.0 99.3 99.3 100.5 101.3 100.2 102.0 101.5 99.5 100.9 102.2 102.5 103.3 104.2 105.4 102.5 103.6 104.6 105.7 101.3 101.6 102.3 103.1 100.6 101.9 102.6 103.1 104.2 105.5 106.8 108.3 99.8 98.8 98.4 98.3 101.9 100.3 103.2 103.1 100.3 100.7 101.4 102.6 98.3 97.2 97.2 97.2 102.6 103.3 102.6 103.8 102.6 103.4 103.8 104.7 102.6 103.0 99.3 100.3 103.1 104.1 105.3 106.3 1984: I II Ill IV 106.6 107.4 108.3 109.2 106.8 107.6 108.5 109.5 103.3 103.9 104.1 104.1 104.4 104.5 105.1 106.0 109.6 110.9 112.4 113.6 98.4 98.5 98.8 99.0 103.6 106.4 107.5 107.8 103.4 104.1 103.6 103.0 97.5 98.0 97.4 96.7 104.5 106.4 107.3 108.3 105.9 106.7 107.3 108.4 99.2 105.5 107.3 108.2 108.1 109.5 110.7 112.0 1985: I II Ill IV 110.2 111.1 111.8 112.8 110.4 111.4 112.2 113.4 104.6 104.5 104.5 104.3 106.5 107.2 107.5 108.9 115.0 116.6 118.0 119.5 99.4 99.2 99.3 99.4 107.6 107.8 108.1 109.4 102.4 102.4 101.8 101.5 95.5 95.3 95.0 95.7 109.1 109.5 109.4 109.7 109.2 109.3 109.6 112.0 109.0 110.2 108.9 104.6 113.9 115.4 116.6 118.0 1986: I II ' 113.5 114.2 113.7 113.5 104.5 104.7 108.0 105.8 120.6 121.9 100.3 100.3 110.2 112.2 101.5 101.1 94.6 91.0 111.0 111.4 111.6 111.2 109.2 112.1 118.8 119.3 1984 1985 1982: 1983: Source: Department of Ooi :c, Bui CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Ore ss national prc duct Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1982: m IV 1983: I n ra rv 1984: 1985: 1986: Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars I n in rv I n m IV I r n. 8.9 11.7 -0.2 3.7 7.6 10.5 6.2 2.5 4.2 6.8 13.0 9.4 12.4 14.9 8.2 6.1 4.9 6.8 5.8 6.8 5.8 6.2 3.0 -2.5 NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly ch: 1.9 3.6 6.4 2.7 — 3.2 .6 3.5 9.3 6.0 7.3 9.8 5.0 2.3 1.5 3.1 2.3 4.1 2.1 3.8 .6 Implicit price deflator Personal consumption e cpenditures Chain price index 9.0 9.0 9.7 6.4 3.9 3.8 3.3 5.8 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.5 4.7 4.6 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.7 3.3 2.5 3.6 2.5 2.5 9.4 6.3 4.1 4.0 3.6 5.6 4.1 3.7 3.6 4.1 3.9 3 are from previous quarter. 4.8 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.9 3.5 2.5 3.9 1.9 1.6 Fixedweighted price index (1982 weights) Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars 10.6 10.5 7.1 9.0 8.7 7.1 8.5 10.3 5.7 13.0 9.3 9.7 8.6 9.1 5.0 7.0 7.2 7.3 8.2 6.4 4.6 5.7 9.3 9.3 6.2 4.1 4.0 3.7 5.5 4.0 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.0 4.7 3.6 3.5 3.6 4.2 3.6 2.8 4.0 2.5 1.9 -0.2 1.2 1.3 4.6 4.7 3.5 2.1 5.3 3.0 8.0 5.3 5.5 4.1 6.0 1.3 3.3 3.7 3.5 5.3 1.7 3.6 6.5 Implicit price deflator Chain price index 10.7 9.2 5.7 4.1 3.8 3.5 6.2 4.4 2.8 4.4 3.9 4.3 4.2 3.0 3.4 3.7 3.3 3.7 2.9 4.3 1.1 n 10.9 9.2 5.7 4.2 4.0 3.6 6.3 4.8 2.8 4.6 4.0 4.1 4.5 3.0 3.7 3.7 3.5 4.0 2.8 4.7 1.4 -.1 Fixedweighted price index (1982 weights) 10.5 9.0 5.6 4.2 4.0 3.7 6.3 4.8 2.8 4.6 4.1 4.1 4.7 3.0 3.8 3.8 3.6 4.2 3.0 4.7 1.5 ___ g Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Curren t-do!lar cos t and profit per unit o ' output (do liars) > Gross C omestic prodl ct of nonfin ancial corporate business (billions o f dollars) Period Current 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1982: 1983: III IV I II m 1984: 1985: 1986: 1 IV I II Ill IV I II HI IV I II" 1,540.8 1,738.4 1,782.2 1,914.2 2,143.7 2,275.1 1,789.0 1,779.4 1,816.0 1,883.9 1,944.5 2,012.5 2,081.7 2,135.9 2,160.3 2,196.8 2,226.0 2,259.1 2,301.3 2,314.1 2,343.6 2,334.1 1982 1,807.9 1,837.2 1,782.2 1,866.0 2,030.8 2,105.5 1,777.8 1,760.2 1,790.7 1,844.7 1,887.9 1,940.5 1,993.8 2,031.6 2,038.4 2,059.4 2,075.7 2,094.4 2,124.6 2,127.3 2,141.0 2,124.8 Total cost and profit 2 Indirect business taxes 3 0.852 .946 1.000 1.026 1.056 1.081 1.006 1.011 1.014 1.021 1.030 1.037 1.044 1.051 1.060 1.067 1.072 1.079 1.083 1.088 1.095 1.099 0.095 .109 .125 .123 .118 .120 .127 .131 .127 .124 .123 .120 .118 .117 .118 .119 .119 .120 .119 .121 .121 .123 0.077 .090 .094 .098 .100 .103 .094 .096 .097 .099 .099 .098 .099 .100 .101 .101 .102 .104 .103 .104 .106 .104 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1982 dol- lars. 2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfmancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. Corpt rate profits with inventory valuation a nd capital eonsuniption adjus tments Capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment 3 4 Compensation of employees Net interest 0.581 .632 .676 .679 .690 .708 .679 .685 .682 .676 .676 .680 .683 .684 .694 .699 .704 .708 .705 .716 .721 .727 0.031 .037 .043 .037 .041 .043 .041 .042 .039 .037 .037 .037 .037 .039 .042 .043 .044 .043 .042 .042 .042 .042 Total 0.068 .078 .063 .089 .107 .106 .065 .057 .069 .086 .095 .103 .107 .111 .104 .104 .103 .104 .113 .105 .105 .103 Profits tax liability 0.037 .035 .026 .032 .037 .032 .026 .023 .023 .031 .036 .036 .041 .040 .034 .032 .031 .029 .033 .033 .029 .030 Profits after tax 4 0.031 .044 .037 .057 .070 .075 .038 .034 .046 .055 .059 .066 .067 .071 .070 .072 .073 .075 .080 .072 .076 .073 Output per hour of all employees (1982 dollars) Compensation per hour of all employees (dollars) 17.096 17.194 17.318 17.867 18.224 18.436 17.374 17.383 17.634 17.865 17.936 18.027 18.172 18.275 18.201 18.250 18.285 18.384 18.604 18.472 18.449 18.344 9.939 10.861 11.699 12.124 12.574 13.060 11.804 11.915 12.031 12.073 12.126 12.259 12.406 12.498 12.630 12.758 12.878 13.011 13.121 13.229 13.294 13.344 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period National income Compensation of employ- Proprietor s' income with in ventory valuation tmd capital consurnption adjust ments Farm 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1982: III IV 1983: I II Ill IV 1984: I II Ill IV 1985: I II Ill IV 1986: I "' 1 Corpora e profits wit i inventory valuation am capital consunnption adjusl ments Rental income of persons with capital Profits wi th inventory valuation adjustmer t and withoiit capital consu nption adjus ment tion adjustment Nonfarm Total Capital consump- Inventory valuation adjustment Profits before tax Net interest adjustment 2,443.5 2,518.4 2,719.5 3,032.0 3,222.3 2,528.4 2,548.2 2,599.1 2,685.5 2,741.8 2,851.5 2,963.2 3,010.3 3,052.3 3,102.0 3,157.0 3,201.4 3,243.4 3,287.3 1,807.4 1,907.0 2,020.7 2,214.7 2,368.2 1,918.4 1,931.1 1,958.8 1,995.0 2,036.3 2,092.7 2,153.7 2,195.4 2,234.7 2,275.0 2,316.3 2,352.1 2,380.9 2,423.6 30.7 24.6 12.4 31.5 29.2 22.9 28.5 18.1 15.9 -3.5 19.3 44.5 26.4 24.7 30.4 32.9 33.0 21.6 29.4 156.1 150.9 178.4 205.3 225.2 151.7 159.8 165.9 176.4 183.0 188.6 198.0 203.2 209.9 210.3 217.8 222.5 227.7 232.7 13.3 13.6 13.2 8.3 7.6 12.0 15.8 13.8 15.4 11.2 12.4 12.1 8.4 7.1 5.6 6.8 8.1 7.3 8.3 188.0 150.0 213.7 264.7 280.7 154.3 146.1 170.6 207.0 228.9 248.5 262.5 271.7 259.8 265.0 266.4 274.3 296.3 285.6 202.3 159.2 196.7 230.2 222.6 161.6 150.7 163.9 191.2 208.5 223.4 235.7 241.5 223.3 220.3 213.3 215.4 235.3 226.4 226.5 169.6 207.6 235.7 223.2 171.6 164.1 169.7 201.8 227.5 231.5 249.3 246.5 225.1 221.9 213.8 213.8 229.2 235.8 -24.2 -10.4 -10.9 — 5.5 -.6 -10.0 -13.4 -5.9 -10.6 -19.0 -8.1 -13.6 -4.9 -1.8 -1.6 -.5 1.6 6.1 -9.4 -14.4 -9.2 17.0 34.5 58.1 -7.3 -4.5 6.7 15.8 20.5 25.1 26.7 30.2 36.5 44.7 53.2 58.9 61.0 59.2 248.1 272.3 281.0 307.4 311.4 269.1 266.9 272.1 275.8 285.9 290.2 292.5 305.2 316.1 315.7 316.8 311.4 309.7 307.6 3,340.7 3,379.5 2,461.5 2,480.1 24.4 40.9 240.9 249.8 12.8 16.6 296.4 291.2 240.8 239.8 224.3 231.9 16.5 7.9 55.6 51.4 304.9 300.8 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Non durable gc ods Durablt goods Period con- Motor vehicles and parts Furniture and household equipment Total nondurable " expendi- Total durable goods 1985: I II Ill IV 1,915.1 2,050.7 2,234.5 2,428.2 2,600.5 2,065.6 2,117.0 2,146.6 2,213.0 2,262.8 2,315.8 2,363.8 2,416.1 2,445.6 2,487.2 2,530.9 2,576.0 2,627.1 2,667.9 239.9 252.7 289.1 331.2 359.3 252.8 263.8 266.7 284.5 295.2 310.0 321.2 331.3 331.8 340.4 347.7 354.0 373.3 362.0 100.5 108.9 130.4 154.5 169.2 108.3 115.7 115.0 128.5 133.7 144.4 150.4 155.8 154.4 157.6 162.3 165.3 182.8 166.4 92.7 95.7 107.1 118.9 126.8 96.4 99.1 101.6 105.3 109.2 112.4 115.6 118.3 119.2 122.3 123.5 125.9 126.8 130.9 46.6 48.1 51.6 57.8 63.3 48.1 49.0 50.2 50.6 52.3 53.2 55.2 57.2 58.3 60.4 61.9 62.8 63.7 64.7 740.6 771.0 816.7 870.1 905.1 776.7 786.6 791.0 810.9 827.0 837.9 855.7 870.3 873.9 880.3 888.2 902.3 907.4 922.6 1986: I II r 2,697.9 2,735.3 360.8 375.7 163.5 173.3 132.1 136.2 65.3 66.2 929.7 929.1 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1982: III IV 1983: I II Ill IV 1984: I II Ill IV Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Other Serv- Retail s ales of new pa senger cars (mi lions of un ts) Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil 376.5 398.8 421.9 449.9 469.3 402.7 407.0 411.1 418.8 426.8 430.8 440.4 447.9 454.3 456.9 461.2 468.3 470.4 477.4 119.9 124.4 135.1 147.2 155.2 125.0 126.5 128.7 134.5 136.0 141.1 144.4 148.2 146.6 149.7 151.7 155.0 155.4 158.7 92.7 89.1 90.2 90.7 91.9 88.6 89.8 87.0 89.4 92.5 91.9 92.0 91.7 89.4 89.9 89.6 92.8 92.4 93.0 151.6 158.7 169.5 182.2 188.7 160.4 163.4 164.3 168.2 171.7 174.0 178.8 182.5 183.6 183.8 185.8 186.2 189.1 193.5 934.7 1,027.0 1,128.7 1,227.0 1,336.1 1,036.1 1,066.5 1,088.9 1,117.6 1,140.6 1,167.9 1,186.9 1,214.5 1,239.9 1,266.5 1,294.9 1,319.7 1,346.4 1,383.2 8.3 8.1 9.4 7.0 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.2 484.6 489.9 161.3 165.5 87.6 78.2 196.2 195.5 1,407.4 1,430.5 7.8 8.1 2.8 3.1 Food Other Domestics 6.2 5.8 6.8 8.0 8.2 5.6 6.0 6.0 6.9 6.9 7.4 8.1 8.1 7.9 7.7 Imports SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $15.9 billion (annual rate) in July, following a rise of $2.6 billion in June. The changes were affected by three special factors: a large increase in retroactive social security benefit payments in July, decreases in subsidy payments to farmers in July and June, and a strike in the communications industry in June. Excluding the effects of these factors, personal income increased $9.5 billion in July and $16.6 billion in June. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,800 3,200 1,600 1,600 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 800 800 OTHER INCOME 400 400 T TRANSFER PAYMENTS i i i i I i i i ii 200 1978 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 U l . l I I I-U 1984 i i i i h i i n I 200 1986 1985 - S E A S O N A L L Y ADJUSTED ANNUAL R A T E S SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Proprietors income 3 Period Total personal income salary Other labor income Personal dividend income 9.3 5.6 6.6 13.3 13.6 13.2 8.3 7.6 43.0 48.1 52.9 61.3 63.9 182.5 221.4 271.9 335.4 369.7 31.5 29.2 160.1 160.1 156.1 150.9 178.4 205.3 225.2 68.7 74.7 76.4 Farm iVonfarm 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1,812.4 2,033.9 2,258.4 2,520.9 2,670.8 2,838.6 3,110.2 3,314.5 1,119.3 1,252.1 1,372.0 1,510.3 1,586.1 1,676.6 1,836.8 1,966.1 107.7 122.7 138.4 150.3 163.6 1985: July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 3,315.4 3,320.5 3,333.9 3,358.3 3,372.3 3,418.0 1,965.8 1,975.4 1,986.7 1,996.7 2,010.5 2,031.1 197.8 198.9 199.9 200.8 201.7 202.6 22.6 19.3 22.8 24.0 26.0 38.2 225.6 227.3 230.2 230.8 232.4 234.9 9.6 10.5 1.7 10.4 2.9 11.7 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr r Mav r June r Julvp 3,417.4 3,435.3 3,445.1 3,488.8 3,484.0 3,486.6 3,502.5 2,035.7 2,044.8 2,051.8 2,054.9 2,058.4 2,063.1 2,068.4 203.6 204.5 205.5 206.4 207.3 208.2 209.0 23.4 26.9 22.8 54.5 39.7 28.6 27.5 237.9 241.0 243.8 247.5 249.1 252.8 254.8 12.2 12.7 13.5 15.1 16.8 18.0 19.0 173.6 184.5 196.9 27.0 31.7 20.5 30.7 24.6 12.4 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. ^Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workers' injury compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items. 3 With inventory valuation and capita! consumption adjustments. Personal interest income Rental income of persons 4 149.2 Transfer payments 5 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance Nonfarm personal income 6 393.1 446.9 476.2 244.0 273.1 324.7 368.1 410.6 442.6 455.6 487.1 69.8 81.0 88.6 104.5 112.3 120.1 133.5 150.2 1,769.3 1,983.1 2,215.8 2,465.6 2,618.7 2,799.0 3,052.2 3,261.0 76.3 76.3 76.2 76.4 76.8 76.9 474.4 474.7 476.4 478.7 481.0 482.2 493.1 489.0 491.2 492.7 493.5 494.5 149.9 150.9 151.3 152.1 152.7 154.0 3,268.6 3,277.2 3,287.5 3,311.0 3,323.2 3,356.9 78.0 79.2 80.0 80.8 81.1 81.5 81.7 481.4 480.7 480.4 480.9 481.9 483.3 483.1 503.4 504.2 506.5 507.9 509.8 510.5 518.9 158.0 158.7 159.1 159.2 159.9 159.3 160.0 3,371.1 3,385.6 3,399.5 3,411.5 3,421.7 3,435.4 3,452.2 mrce: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable personal income rose again in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 6,000 4,000 4,000 1978 1986 • SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE Period Personal income Less: Personal COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Equals: Disposable personal income tax and nontax payments Less: Personal outlays l Equals: Personal saving Per c apita disposable personal inco me Per capits personal consulnption expenc itures Current dollars Current dollars 1982 dollars 1,812.4 2,033.9 2,258.4 2,520.9 2,670.8 2,838.6 3,110.2 3,314.5 261.1 304.7 340.5 393.3 409.3 410.5 439.6 486.5 1,551.2 1,729.3 1,917.9 2,127.6 2,261.4 2,428.1 2,670.6 2,828.0 1,441.1 1,611.3 1,781.1 1,968.1 2,107.5 2,297.4 2,501.9 2,684.7 110.2 118.0 136.8 159.4 153.9 130.6 168.7 143.3 6,968 7,682 8,421 9,243 9,724 10,340 11,265 11,817 9,735 9,829 9,722 9,769 9,725 9,930 10,421 10,563 Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population, including Armed abroad (thousands) 2 Per cent Do lars BJlions of dol! ars 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1982 dollars Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income 6,304 6,960 7,607 8,320 8,818 9,515 10,243 10,866 8,808 8,904 8,783 8,794 8,818 9,139 9,475 9,713 3.8 1.0 -1.1 .5 -.5 2.1 4.9 1.4 7.1 6.8 7.1 7.5 6.8 5.4 6.3 5.1 222,629 225,106 227,754 230,182 232,549 234,829 237,067 239,317 -0.7 1.2 6.8 6.2 5.9 5.1 4.8 5.8 6.9 6.0 6.4 6.0 5.2 6.5 4.2 4.4 5.0 5.1 232,851 233,466 233,981 234,509 235,117 235,707 236,222 236,742 237,347 237,953 238,469 238,985 239,605 240,206 240,709 241,216 Seas anally adju sted annual rates 1982: m IV 2,683.6 2,729.2 405.0 411.1 2,278.6 2,318.1 1983: I II 2,753.1 2,812.6 2,846.8 2,941.8 407.4 417.1 403.6 413.9 2,345.7 2,395.4 2,443.2 2,527.9 n m 3,034.2 3,077.4 3,139.7 3,189.6 421.5 431.2 445.9 460.0 2,612.7 2,646.3 2,693.8 2,729.6 n m 3,253.1 3,298.7 3,323.2 3,382.9 497.7 456.4 491.2 500.7 2,755.4 2,842.3 2,832.0 2,882.2 n ..... 3,432.6 3,486.5 497.5 504.8 2,935.1 2,981.7 in IV 1984: I IV 1985: I IV 1986: I r 2,122.6 2,174.9 2,206.2 2,274.4 2,326.7 2,382.5 2,433.5 2,488.7 2,520.9 2,564.6 2,611.3 2,658.7 2,712.4 2,756.4 2,789.4 2,829.0 156.0 143.1 139.5 121.1 116.4 145.4 179.2 157.6 172.9 165.0 144.1 183.6 119.6 125.8 145.6 152.7 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and person a! transfer payments to foreigners (net). 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. C 9,786 9,929 10,025 10,215 10,391 10,725 11,060 11,178 11,350 11,471 11,555 11,893 11,819 11,999 12,193 12,361 9,720 9,749 9,780 9,855 9,933 10,151 10,358 10,392 10,457 10,477 10,466 10,674 10,537 10,577 10,723 10,893 8,871 9,068 9,174 9,437 9,624 9,825 10,007 10,206 10,304 10,452 10,613 10,779 10,964 11,107 11,208 11,340 8,812 8,904 8,950 9,105 9,200 9,299 9,372 9,488 9,494 9,547 9,613 9,674 9,774 9,790 9,857 9,993 1.3 3.1 3.2 9.1 8.4 1.3 2.5 .8 8.2^ -5.0 1.5 5.6 6.5 Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the first quarter of 1986, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income fell $20.9 billion (annual rate) and net farm income fell $18.4 billion. BILLIC)NS OF DOLLA *S * (RATIO SC ALE) 160 ^— - BILL IONS OF DOLL ARS * (RATIO S CALE) - r^/ ^^ ^ r~—^nr-*^ ^ ^ /N 1 s/ ^^\ GRC3SS FARM INCCDME ^— 240 200 160 80 80 60 n i\ i \ 40 ,-' \ \ ^' i f i i / \ ;X, '"V \ i y\ \ % / 1 \> \ \ i ; i i ! 1 1 1979 i ^% / N 1 40 t \ \ \/ \ ' t \ \ 1 I 1 \ t i ' \ V / ; • , •' <i 1978 / I ', / \ I ii ! i \ ' x \ V i \t IV ^NET FARM IIvICOME i 10 \ i \t I i i i i i 1 1 1 i ' i i 1980 1981 1982 1983 1 I ! 1984 SEASONALLY ADJUS PED ANNUAL RATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE I ! i i i 1 1986 1985 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS c OURCE: [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] In come of farm ope rators from farmi ng C ross farm income Period Cas i marketing rece pts Total ' Total 128.4 150.7 149.6 166.0 161.6 150.6 174.0 112.2 131.5 139.8 142.1 142.9 136.3 152.9 143.6 151.7 154.3 Livestock and products Crops Value of inventory changes 2 135.1 134.9 135.5 136.9 17.8 16.2 17.3 17.4 8.5 15.5 16.4 2.0 8.7 10.3 10.2 139.2 140.2 140.0 138.5 36.5 27.0 33.6 41.2 34.2 25.1 30.9 37.6 68.4 67.2 66.3 92.1 2.8 1.6 -4.1 5.2 137.0 134.9 132.8 130.6 32.9 27.0 16.1 45.9 29.8 24.2 14.4 40.6 63.1 4.2 128.2 27.5 24.2 141.8 143.2 133.0 141.2 127.6 71.0 68.9 67.9 70.0 72.2 64.1 73.3 57.6 -10.6 13.9 -12.9 4.9 175.7 167.3 173.7 179.8 139.3 139.0 141.5 147.6 75.5 70.8 71.2 73.5 63.8 68.2 70.3 74.2 n m IV 169.9 161.9 148.9 176.5 140.1 134.0 134.3 164.2 71.7 66.8 68.0 72.1 I" 155.6 132.6 69.5 1983: I n m IV 1984: I n m IV 1985: I 1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. 71.8 72.9 72.7 66.8 69.1 3 1982 dollars 3 38.0 40.3 23.6 31.8 53.0 62.3 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 Current dollars 27.4 31.7 20.2 29.8 24.6 15.0 34.5 59.2 69.2 68.0 69.2 70.3 69.4 72.7 1978 1979 1986: Net farrr income Production expenses 2.1 5.0 -5.9 5.8 -1.4 10.6 7.8 101.0 119.0 129.4 136.1 136.9 135.6 139.5 8.7 Income in current dollars divided by the GNP implicit price deflator (1982=100). NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Corporation loans and operator households. Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce. 24.6 14.5 31.9 CORPORATE PROFITS In the second quarter of 1986, according to preliminary estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $7.6 (annual rate) and after-tax profits rose $5.6 billion billion. BIL1 IONS OF DOLL ARS BULKDNS OF DOLLA RS 320 SEAS ONALLY ADJUSTED A 320 •JNUAL RATES ~ r""—^1 r \ ^^ -f .-- - ^ \ 160 ,-•"" ^ —-**" ** - — "- s r-'' 160 ..-•*"" • ,„--" TAX LIABILI TY. ,•\\^-—-~ X ' J-* \ S "Sl».^ '\.J._. s .^ V.- \ ^ ,,^ •s,, _//— T '-- ,Oft "~-\ / \ \ ^ 40 ^ \-^ f ~— -\ /*" 80 s / .-—•"'' ~/ ~\ ,-l..^ \ 190 / PROF TS AFTER TAX | ^^ -' \ —-./ _•-—••*_ — PROF TS BEFORE TA X, / —1 /^ *» / L. - _. 40 UN DISTRIBUTED P !OFITS I 0 1 i i i l 1978 1979 jOURCE: DEPARTMEN7 1 i 1 ! 1 E 1 1981 1980 1 1 1 ___ 1 1 1983 1982 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1985 1984 OF COMMERCE 1 I :0 1986 COUNCIL OF CONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Prc fits (before t fix) with inve ntory valuati on adjustmen t 1 Profits after ta X Dotnestic indust •ies Total 2 Total Financial Total 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1982: in IV 1983: I II m IV 1984: I n m IV 1985: I II ni IV 1986: I IT r 1 2 Profits before tax Nonfinaneial Period 208.5 223.4 159.6 173.8 131.2 166.6 199.2 190.8 133.0 121.6 135.7 163.0 176.8 190.7 235.7 205.2 241.5 211.5 191.3 188.8 182.6 183.8 194.0 202.3 159.2 196.7 230.2 222.6 161.6 150.7 163.9 191.2 223.3 220.3 213.3 215.4 235.3 226.4 205.3 240.8 239.8 202.4 202.3 191.3 21.0 16.5 11.8 18.1 15.4 21.0 12.4 18.7 19.4 20.3 17.2 15.5 16.6 15.4 13.4 16.1 18.2 21.1 21.7 23.2 28.4 31.4 3 138.6 157.3 119.4 148.5 183.8 169.7 120.6 102.9 116.3 142.7 159.6 175.2 188.6 196.1 177.8 172.6 164.4 162.7 183.6 168.1 174.0 170.9 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. Manufacturing 77.1 88.5 58.0 70.1 87.4 73.0 64.3 46.8 51.2 63.2 77.7 88.6 95.0 94.6 81.3 78.9 70.4 68.2 79.0 74.5 67.1 Tax liability Total Dividends sale and retail trade 21.6 32.5 34.6 38.9 49.7 49.7 237.1 226.5 169.6 207.6 235.7 223.2 32.9 171.6 164.1 169.7 201.8 33.6 32.5 41.0 39.0 43.1 46.2 51.1 51.0 50.7 48.8 51.1 54.2 45.0 52.5 227.5 231.5 249.3 246.5 225.1 221.9 213.8 213.8 229.2 235.8 224.3 231.9 3 84.8 81.1 63.1 77.2 95.4 91.8 64.3 59.8 59.1 75.3 86.5 88.1 102.9 101.6 89.3 87.8 87.8 87.1 95.8 96.4 89.1 91.2 152.3 145.4 106.5 130.4 140.3 131.4 107.3 104.3 110.6 126.6 141.0 143.4 146.4 144.8 135.8 134.1 126.0 126.7 133.4 139.4 135.2 140.8 54.7 63.6 66.9 71.5 78.3 81.6 66.6 68.5 69.8 70.4 72.0 73.9 76.0 78.1 79.0 80.1 80.9 81.4 81.6 82.5 85.2 87.5 Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Undistributed profits 97.6 81.8 39.6 58.9 62.0 49.8 40.7 35.8 40.8 56.1 69.0 69.5 70.4 66.7 56.8 54.0 45.1 45.3 51.8 57.0 50.0 53.2 Inventory valuation adjustment -43.1 -24.2 -10.4 -10.9 -5.5 -.6 -10.0 -13.4 -5.9 -10.6 -19.0 -8.1 -13.6 -4.9 -1.8 -1.6 -.5 1.6 6.1 -9.4 16.5 r 7.9 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to revised estimates for the second quarter, nonresidential fixed investment fell $2.7 billion (annual rate) from its first quarter level while residential investment outlays rose $10.4 billion. There was a $12.5 billion increase in inventories following an increase of $43.8 billion in the first quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 800 800 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 700 700 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 " NONRESIDENTIAL" FIXED INVESTMENT ?on RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT 200 100 100 CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES 1 -100 1978 1979 1981 1980 I i i 1 1983 1982 1984 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1985 I I I 1-100 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Change ii business mven ones ]""ixed investmen Gross domestic investment 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1982: HI IV 1983: I n HI IV 1984: I n m IV 1985: I 302.8 322.8 369.2 366.7 356.9 416.5 458.2 452.2 409.6 461.2 469.5 471.0 492.5 525.2 548.8 564.0 597.6 605.8 624.4 625.2 648.0 654.3 672.6 664.4 672.2 360.7 354.9 428.3 481.3 519.7 579.8 659.5 657.5 670.3 661.1 1986: I r 708.3 684.7 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Total 441.9 445.3 491.5 471.8 509.4 598.0 650.0 650.6 667.1 657.4 669.5 n Total 454.8 437.0 515.5 447.3 502.3 662.1 661.1 n m IV Nonresidential 340.8 344.7 358.1 383.9 388.2 413.3 421.8 442.9 439.8 459.2 459.8 474.0 459.2 456.5 Structures 99.5 113.9 138.5 143.3 124.0 139.3 154.8 140.2 137.6 126.4 119.8 122.7 127.4 129.7 139.1 141.4 146.7 150.7 156.1 155.0 157.2 154.6 140.3 Producers' durable equipment 203.3 208.9 230.7 223.4 232.8 277.3 303.4 220.5 217.3 214.4 224.9 235.5 256.5 258.4 274.1 280.4 296.2 289.1 303.1 304.7 316.8 304.6 316.1 Residential 139.1 122.5 122.3 105.1 152.5 181.4 191.8 100.5 114.7 130.2 147.8 167.1 164.9 175.8 184.4 184.0 181.5 185.4 188.8 194.5 198.6 205.3 215.7 Total Nonfarm 13.0 -8.3 24.0 -24.5 7.9 2.4 18.3 -23.1 7.1 .4 64.1 11.1 -9.0 -59.9 -42.6 -11.2 56.6 12.2 -12.4 -51.1 -33.2 5.5 15.8 21.3 71.5 56.8 62.1 35.9 18.5 10.4 31.0 95.5 59.9 64.4 36.7 25.4 19.1 2.3 3.1 3.2 -3.1 43.8 12.5 16.7 41.2 9.2 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT According to the Commerce Department April-May 1986 survey, business spending for new plant and equipment for the year 1986 is expected to be 0.2 percent above the 1985 level. Spending in 1985 was 9.0 percent above the 1984 level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 400 400 ALL INDUSTRIES 300 300 200 200 NONMANUFACTURING 100 MANUFACTURING 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 i i i 1978 1 1979 ! 1 1 1980 I I 1981 1 ! 1 1982 ! 1 1 1983 1 1 1 1984 1 ! ! 1 1985 J/. SURVEYED QUARTERLY J/SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1 1 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Addenda Industries surveyed quarterly No unanufactui ing M imifacturu ig Period All industries Total 217.76 254.96 282.80 315.22 310.58 304.78 354.44 386.41 387.25 78.58 95.92 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.15 149.17 337.95 349.97 361.48 368.29 1985: I 1986: 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 19864 1984: I n in rv n m rv I n 44 m4 rv Nonmanufactu ring Surveyed quarterly Nondurable goods Total ' Mining Transportation Public utilities 39.46 48.50 55.36 59.81 55.35 53.08 66.24 73.14 72.09 39.13 47.42 56.96 66.73 65.33 63.12 72.58 80.01 77.09 139.18 159.04 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.26 238.07 11.22 12.81 15.99 21.39 20.05 15.19 16.86 15.88 12.35 13.36 16.05 16.60 15.84 14.79 13.97 16.52 17.97 18.16 31.50 35.63 37.74 41.21 45.43 44.96 47.48 48.74 46.40 83.09 94.56 100.14 110.24 109.63 114.45 134.75 150.67 161.16 129.91 135.96 142.44 146.96 61.23 64.03 68.26 71.43 68.68 71.93 74.18 75.53 208.04 214.01 219.04 221.33 17.24 16.38 16.82 17.00 15.29 17.01 17.49 16.28 47.08 128.42 47.94 47.92 46.92 132.67 136.80 141.13 129.91 135.96 142.44 146.96 208.04 214.01 219.04 221.33 371.16 387.83 388.90 397.74 145.65 154.33 154.04 158.57 69.87 73.96 72.85 75.87 75.78 80.36 81.19 82.70 225.51 233.51 234.86 239.16 15.66 16.51 15.94 15.40 16.22 17.50 19.09 19.06 48.46 48.47 48.14 49.89 145.17 151.02 151.69 154.81 145.65 154.33 154.04 158.57 225.51 233.51 234.86 239.16 376.08 387.42 388.87 396.61 143.06 148.01 148.47 157.16 67.74 72.20 71.42 76.98 75.32 75.80 77.04 80.19 233.02 239.41 240.40 239.45 12.85 12.61 12.49 11.43 17.76 17.99 19.21 17.68 47.15 47.59 44.98 45.89 155.27 161.22 163.73 164.45 143.06 148.01 148.47 157.16 233.02 239.41 240.40 239.45 Durable goods 1 Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; raedicaf services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and real estate, which, effective with the April-May 1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ("nonmanufacturing surveyed annually") for data for these industries. 2 "All industries" plus the part of nonmanufacturing that is surveyed annually. 10 Total nonfarm business 2 Commercial and other 245.34 284.94 314.47 349.26 347.47 343.35 398.99 431.21 Manufacturing 78.58 95.92 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.15 149.17 Total 166.76 189.02 202.15 222.72 226.79 227.15 260.16 278.07 139.18 159.04 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.26 238.07 Surveyed annual- 27.58 29.98 31.68 34.04 36.89 38.56 44.55 44.81 3 Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and real estate. 4 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late April-May 1986, corrected for biases. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE In July, seasonally adjusted civilian employment rose 209,000 and unemployment fell 253,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 120 MILLIONS OF PERSONS 120 116 116 1986 *16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Period Noninstitutional population including resident Armed Forces NSA 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: July.... Aug Sept .... Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan *... Feb Mar Apr May June.... July .... 166,460 169,349 171,775 173,939 175,891 178,080 179,912 179,967 180,131 180,304 180,470 180,642 180,810 181,361 181,512 181,678 181,843 181,998 182,183 182,354 T h f including Forces NSA Armed Forces 1,597 1,604 1,645 1,668 1,676 1,697 1,706 1,704 1,726 1,732 1,700 1,702 1,698 1,691 1,691 1,693 1,695 1,687 1,680 1,672 106,559 108,544 110,315 111,872 113,226 115,241 117,167 116,976 117,069 117,522 117,814 117,832 117,927 118,477 118,779 118,900 118,929 119,351 119,796 119,744 Employment including resident Armed Forces 100,421 100,907 102,042 101,194 102,510 106,702 108,856 108,575 108,936 109,251 109,513 109,671 109,904 110,646 110,252 110,481 110,587 110,797 111,353 111,554 Nonagricultural Civilian labor force 104,962 106,940 108,670 110,204 111,550 113,544 115,461 115,272 115,343 115,790 116,114 116,130 116,229 116,786 117,088 117,207 117,234 117,664 118,116 118,072 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc. 2 Labor force as percent of noninstitutional population (both including resident Armed Forces). 3 Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population. Unempl )yment Civilian einployment Resident Total 98,824 99,303 100,397 99,526 100,834 105,005 107,150 106,871 107,210 107,519 107,813 107,969 108,206 108,955 108,561 108,788 108,892 109,110 109,673 109,882 Agricultural 3,347 3,364 3,368 3,401 3,383 3,321 3,179 3,120 3,095 3,017 3,058 3,070 3,151 3,299 3,096 3,285 3,222 3,160 3,165 3,112 Total 95,477 95,938 97,030 96,125 97,450 101,685 103,971 103,751 104,115 104,502 104,755 104,899 105,055 105,655 105,465 105,503 105,670 105,950 106,508 106,769 Part-time for Total economic reasons l 3,373 4,064 4,499 5,852 5,997 5,512 5,334 5,328 5,413 5,299 5,241 5,295 5,294 5,275 5,158 5,301 5,621 5,673 5,320 5,191 6,137 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,401 8,133 8,271 8,301 8,161 8,023 7,831 8,527 8,419 8,342 8,554 8,443 8,190 15 weeks and over 1,241 1,871 2,285 3,485 4,210 2,737 2,305 2,329 2,274 2,307 2,277 2,205 2,188 2,056 2,340 2,258 2,135 2,209 2,320 2,256 Labor force partici )ation rate (pe rcent) Total 2 Civilian 3 64.0 64.1 63.7 63.8 63.9 64.0 64.0 64.4 64.8 64.7 64.7 64.8 65.0 64.9 64.9 65.0 65.1 65.1 65.1 65.3 65.4 65.3 64.2 64.3 64.4 64.7 65.1 65.0 65.0 65.2 65.3 65.2 65.2 65.3 65.4 65.4 65.4 65.6 65.8 65.7 ' Data beginning January 1986 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of change in estimation procedures. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In July, the seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage point to 6.8 percent; the civilian unemployment rate also fell 0.2 percentage point, to 6.9 percent. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 25 25 20 \ '•.'-A 20 4 v\ / V-'i \ -'"*"/' ',<-'' \ 1 ^ ./ \ 15 V 10 x f '^"\ . «-A ' V V . 15 «/""*"" \ f'~\ >BLACK AND OTH ER /. -\X, BLACK V, TEENAGERS (16-19) 10 x<^x" '" -X WOMEN 20 YEARS AND OVER A L L C VILIAN WOR KERS "N —^-^ /^ ^^~ WHITE iiiiiliini 1982 lllllllllll 1983 MEN 20 YEARS AND OVER . lllllllllll lllllllllll 1984 1985 iiiiiliini 1982 1986 1983 1984 1985 1986 'UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Period 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: 1986: Unempl oyment ra te (percent of civilian labor force in group) Unemployment rate, all workers 1 All civilian workers 5.8 7.0 7.5 9.5 9.5 7.4 7.1 7.2 By sex and age By s elected grou] s By race Both sexes 16-19 years Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over 5.8 7.1 7.6 9.7 9.6 7.5 7.2 4.2 5.9 6.3 8.8 8.9 6.6 6.2 5.7 6.4 6.8 8.3 8.1 6.8 6.6 16.1 17.8 19.6 23.2 22.4 18.9 18.6 Black and other Black Experienced wage and salary workers 5.1 6.3 6.7 8.6 8.4 6.5 6.2 11.3 13.1 14.2 17.3 17.8 14.4 13.7 12.3 14.3 15.6 18.9 19.5 15.9 15.1 5.5 6.9 7.3 9.3 9.2 7.1 6.8 2.8 4.2 4.3 6.5 6.5 4.6 4.3 White Married men, spouse present Women who maintain families Labor force time lost (percent) 2 Fulltime workers Parttime workers 8.3 9.2 10.4 11.7 12.2 10.3 10.4 5.3 6.9 7.3 9.6 9.5 7.2 6.8 8.8 8.8 9.4 10.5 10.4 9.3 9.3 6.3 7.9 8.5 11.0 10.9 8.6 8.1 July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 6.9 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.8 7.3 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.2 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.4 6.4 6.2 19.3 17.5 18.1 19.8 18.4 18.8 6.3 6.1 6.1 6.1 5.9 5.9 13.5 12.8 13.7 13.5 14.1 13.4 15.0 14.1 15.2 14.9 15.6 14.9 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 4.4 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 10.3 10.8 11.3 10.4 10.0 9.4 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 9.4 9.0 9.3 9.6 8.8 9.0 8.2 8.1 8.1 7.9 7.9 7.8 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June .... July 6.6 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.7 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.3 7.1 6.9 5.7 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.4 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.7 6.6 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.1 18.4 19.0 18.2 19.6 19.0 19.1 17.5 5.7 6.4 6.2 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.0 12.8 13.3 13.3 13.6 13.6 13.7 12.6 14.4 14.8 14.7 14.8 14.8 15.1 14.0 6.3 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.9 6.7 6.7 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.4 9.9 9.9 10.1 9.4 10.2 10.1 9.2 6.4 6.9 6.9 6.7 7.0 6.7 6.6 8.4 9.4 9.1 9.6 9.2 9.1 9.0 7.6 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.3 8.1 7.7 1 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces. 2 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. 12 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In July, the percentages of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 15-26 weeks rose while the percentages out of work for 5-14 weeks and for 27 weeks and over fell. The mean and the median duration of unemployment fell. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 REASOI^J FOR UNE/ ^PLOYMENT PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT A, .' \. A./ 60 — ^\ •^ >( /*"* \ V "\"~. \ V JOB LOSERS 50 — 40 40 30 30 ^' V' \ REENTRANTS f— \ ,*-• s-\ -'V • ~" * "*x 20 20 "'^ -* / -'*.' ~ Ni W ENTRANT 5 r^~/> 10 — - 10 IPs--/—>- _^T^~^ """^•— — - Illllllllll 1986 1982 1982 JTi JOB LEAVER; Illllllllll 1983 iiiiilniii 1984 Illllllllll Illllllllll 1985 1986 -SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVtSERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Be ason for memployment: percent distributi )n Dunition of i nemploj ment Period Unemployment (thousands) P ercent di stributiori Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks Stat e progra ms Numb er of ks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Medi- Job losers Job leavers Reentrants New entrants Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) 1 Weekly av erage, th ousands 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 43.1 41.7 36.4 33.3 39.2 42.1 32.3 30.7 31.0 27.4 28.7 30.2 13.8 13.6 16.0 15.4 12.9 12.3 10.7 14.0 16.6 23.9 19.1 15.4 11.9 13.7 15.6 20.0 18.2 15.6 6.5 6.9 8.7 10.1 7.9 6.8 51.7 51.6 58.7 58.4 51.8 49.8 11.7 11.2 7.9 7.7 9.6 10.6 25.2 25.4 22.3 22.5 25.6 27.1 11.4 11.9 11.1 11.3 13.0 12.5 3,350 3,047 4,061 3,396 2,476 2,616 488 460 583 438 377 397 3,837 3,410 4,594 3,775 2,545 3,671 1985: July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 8,401 8,133 8,271 8,301 8,161 8,023 42.1 41.7 42.0 41.6 42.7 42.1 30.0 30.6 30.2 30.8 30.2 30.7 12.9 12.8 12.5 12.8 11.0 12.1 14.9 15.0 15.3 14.8 16.1 15.1 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.7 15.4 7.1 7.2 6.9 6.9 6.9 50.2 50.8 50.2 49.1 50.0 48.8 10.7 10.7 10.3 11.1 9.9 10.9 26.1 26.9 28.3 27.2 27.2 27.6 13.1 11.5 11.1 12.7 12.9 12.8 2,609 2,585 2,560 2,535 2,560 2,564 391 386 384 380 382 391 2,523 2,361 2,212 2,227 2,468 2,884 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Julv 7,831 8,527 8,419 8,342 8,554 8,443 8,190 42.4 41.8 42.3 42.9 42.8 40.2 41.7 31.3 30.8 31.1 31.8 31.6 32.2 30.6 12.4 13.5 13.0 11.9 12.4 12.3 13.1 13.9 14.0 13.7 13.4 13.1 15.3 14.6 14.9 15.3 14.4 14.3 14.4 15.2 15.0 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.5 6.6 7.3 7.1 48.0 48.7 50.3 48.1 50.3 51.2 48.3 12.7 11.7 11.9 13.2 11.4 12.0 12.7 26.3 26.8 26.0 26.1 25.9 24.4 27.2 13.0 12.8 11.8 12.6 12.4 12.5 11.8 2,591 2,610 2,654 2,612 2,666 2,681 2,698 370 392 393 380 382 381 380 3,370 3,295 3,144 2,799 2,556 2,474 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 : Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-service(IICX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also include? Federal and State exnefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program. 7.0 Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 389,000 in July. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) MILLIONS OF PERSONS 24 100 ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 80 — 70 SERVICE-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 60 — 50 40 — •GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 30 \ 20 lynnlnilT 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 "SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thousands of wage and salary workers; 1 seasonally adjusted] Se rvice-produc ing industn es Goods-p reducing in [ustries Period Total nonagricultural employment M anufacturin g Total 2 onC nn struction Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Transportation and public utilities Federal 5,165 5,082 4,954 5,159 5,242 15,947 16,241 16,031 15,837 15,869 16,024 16,415 2,773 2,866 2,772 2,739 2,774 2,807 2,875 72,797 73,010 73,285 73,525 73,735 73,933 5,241 5,219 5,257 5,260 5,272 5,277 5,740 5,762 5,777 5,796 5,796 5,809 17,404 17,464 17,489 17,543 17,589 17,622 5,964 5,988 6,014 6,038 6,070 6,095 21,998 22,115 22,212 22,313 22,415 22,501 16,450 16,462 16,536 16,575 16,593 16,629 2,879 2,886 2,899 2,895 2,904 2,913 74,195 74,391 74,539 74,745 74,953 75,007 75,370 5,286 5,277 5,280 5,266 5,265 5,177 5,274 5,830 5,843 5,841 5,864 5,872 5,830 5,847 17,734 17,795 17,828 17,851 17,911 17,932 18,002 6,123 6,157 6,184 6,228 6,261 6,294 6,330 22,585 22,638 22,707 22,825 22,924 23,073 23,197 16,637 16,681 16,699 16,711 16,720 16,701 16,720 2,918 2,918 2,923 2,914 2,899 2,907 2,910 12,760 12,187 12,109 11,039 10,732 11,505 11,516 8,280 8,098 8,061 7,741 7,702 7,873 7,798 63,363 64,748 65,659 65,753 66,866 69,769 72,684 5,136 5,146 July.... Aug.... Sept.... Oct Nov.... Dec 97,672 97,890 98,128 98,428 98,666 98,910 24,875 24,880 24,843 24,903 24,931 24,977 4,679 4,702 4,728 4,754 4,765 4,787 19,268 19,256 19,198 19,236 19,259 19,289 11,483 11,473 11,421 11,447 11,453 11,461 7,785 7,783 7,777 7,789 7,806 7,828 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May '.. June r. July". 99,296 99,429 99,484 99,783 99,918 99,864 100,253 25,101 25,038 24,945 25,038 24,965 24,857 24,883 4,901 4,864 4,838 4,972 4,974 4,939 4,992 19,303 19,294 19,255 19,245 19,201 19,145 19,122 11,466 11,455 11,418 11,415 11,378 11,313 11,302 7,837 7,839 7,837 7,830 7,823 7,832 7,820 Total 17,112 17,890 18,619 19,036 19,694 20,797 21,974 21,040 20,285 20,170 18,781 18,434 19,378 19,314 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial dis- Services 4,975 5,160 5,298 5,341 5,468 5,689 5,953 4,463 4,346 4,188 3,905 3,948 4,383 4,687 1985: Government Finance, insurance, and real estate 14,989 15,035 15,189 15,179 15,613 16,545 17,360 26,461 25,658 25,497 23,813 23,334 24,727 24,930 1983 1984 1985 Retail trade 5,204 5,275 5,358 5,278 5,268 5,555 5,740 89,823 90,406 91,156 89,566 90,200 94,496 97,614 1979 1980 1981 1982 Wholesale trade putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. ^ Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average gi oss hourly earnings \verage weekly hours Period 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: July Aug Sept Get Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June ' July" Manufa £turing Total private nonagricultural ' Total Overtime 3.6 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.3 40.4 40.2 35.8 35.7 35.3 35.2 34.8 35.0 35.2 34.9 39.7 39.8 38.9 40.1 40.7 40.5 40.4 40.6 40.7 40.7 40.7 40.9 40.8 40.7 40.7 40.7 40.7 40.6 40.6 34.8 34.9 34.9 34.9 34.8 34.9 35.0 34.9 34.9 34.8 34.8 34.7 34.6 Total private nonagricultural 1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Manufacturing $6.17 6.70 7.27 7.99 $5.69 6.16 6.66 7.25 7.68 8.02 8.32 8.57 8.55 8.59 8.62 8.63 8.65 8.70 8.68 8.71 8.73 8.72 8.73 8.75 8.73 8.49 8.83 9.19 9.53 9.54 9.57 9.58 9.61 9.63 9.68 9.65 9.68 9.70 9.68 9.72 9.71 9.71 Adjuste d hourly earnin £s index2 — total private nonagnc ultural Ind ex, 1977 =-100 Percent chang e from a year earlie r 4 5 1977 dollars 3 Current dollars Current dollars 108.2 116.8 100.5 97.4 8.2 7.9 127.3 138.9 148.5 155.4 160.3 165.2 165.0 165.5 166.4 166.2 166.8 167.7 167.3 168.2 168.5 168.4 168.7 169.2 169.0 93.5 92.6 93.4 94.9 94.6 94.1 93.9 94.1 94.4 94.0 93.9 94.0 93.5 94.4 95.1 95.4 95.4 95.2 95.1 9.0 9.1 6.9 4.6 3.2 3.1 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 1977 dollars 0.5 3.1 -4.0 -1.0 .9 1.6 .3 -.5 -1.0 .1 .4 .1 -.4 -.5 -.9 -.2 .9 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.2 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Percent cl ange from a year earlier, Avera ge gross weekly earmngs Period Total mvate nonagncultural * Current dollars 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June r July". $203.70 219.91 235.10 255.20 267.26 280.70 292.86 299.09 297.54 299.79 300.84 301.19 301.02 303.63 303.80 303.98 304.68 303.46 303.80 303.63 302.06 Manufacturing Retail trade $189.31 183.41 172.74 170.13 168.09 171.26 172.78 170.42 169.44 170.43 170.74 170.45 169.49 170.20 169.72 170.58 171.94 171.93 171.83 170.87 170.08 $249.27 269.34 288.62 318.00 330.26 354.08 374.03 385.97 385.42 388.54 389.91 391.13 391.94 395.91 393.72 393.98 394.79 393.98 395.60 394.23 394.23 4 5 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing. Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (on a 1977 = 100 base). 1977 dollars Current dollars 1 Construction Current dollars 1977 dollars 3 2 3 total private n onagricultural 5 $318.69 342.99 367.78 399.26 426.82 442.97 458.51 464.09 462.10 463.23 466.83 467.31 461.52 461.28 470.40 448.59 450.06 465.22 464.25 462.40 462.02 $130.20 138.62 147.38 158.03 163.85 171.05 174.33 174.64 174.34 174.64 175.81 174.63 174.92 175.78 175.51 175.51 176.09 174.91 174.91 174.60 174.60 7.8 8.0 6.9 8.5 4.7 5.0 4.3 2.1 1.5 2.3 2.1 2.7 2.3 2.5 3.1 2.5 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.1 1.5 0.2 -3.1 -5.8 -1.5 -1.2 1.9 .9 -1.4 -2.2 -.6 -.6 .2 -1.1 -1.1 -.6 -.5 .4 .9 .7 -.2 .3 Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places. Based on seasonally unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output pe r hour of all pe rsons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Outp u t Business sector 1 Compens ation per Hours of all perse ns 2 Nonfarm business sector Business sector hou r 3 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit lab or costs Real com pensation per h our 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Implic t price defla t o r 5 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 19r 7 = 100;(niarterly < ata seasorlally adjus ted 1978 1979 100.8 99.6 100.8 99.3 105.8 107.9 106.0 107.9 104.9 108.3 105.1 108.7 108.5 119.1 108.6 118.9 100.8 99.4 100.9 99.2 107.6 119.5 107.7 119.7 107.3 117.0 107.0 116.5 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 99.3 100.7 100.3 103.0 105.3 98.8 99.8 99.2 102.4 104.3 106.7 108.9 105.5 109.9 118.8 106.7 108.5 104.9 110.1 118.8 107.5 108.2 105.2 106.7 112.8 108.0 108.7 105.7 107.5 114.0 131.5 143.7 154.9 161.5 168.1 131.3 143.6 154.8 161.5 167.9 96.7 95.7 97.3 98.2 98.1 96.6 95.7 97.2 98.2 98.0 132.5 142.7 154.5 156.8 159.7 132.9 144.0 156.0 157.7 161.0 127.6 139.8 148.1 153.0 158.5 127.8 140.3 149.2 154.3 159.3 1985 106.4 104.8 122.7 122.5 115.3 116.9 175.3 174.6 98.8 98.4 164.8 166.7 163.0 164.6 1982: El IV 100.3 101.0 99.1 99.7 105.1 105.0 104.5 104.2 104.8 103.9 105.4 104.5 156.6 158.3 156.3 158.2 97.2 97.9 97.0 97.8 156.2 156.8 157.7 158.7 149.3 150.2 150.3 151.4 1983: 101.9 103.5 103.0 103.8 100.9 102.7 102.9 103.3 106.2 109.2 110.8 113.6 105.8 109.2 111.4 114.1 104.2 105.5 107.5 109.4 104.8 106.3 108.3 110.5 159.9 160.9 161.5 163.6 159.9 160.9 161.7 163.4 98.8 98.4 97.7 98.0 98.8 98.4 97.8 97.9 156.8 155.5 156.8 157.7 158.5 156.6 157.1 158.2 151.2 152.3 153.4 155.2 152.5 153.6 155.0 156.2 104.9 105.6 105.5 105.5 103.9 104.6 104.4 104.3 116.9 119.0 119.5 120.2 116.9 119.1 119.5 120.2 111.4 112.7 113.3 114.0 112.5 113.8 114.5 115.2 165.9 167.1 169.0 170.6 165.6 166.9 168.7 170.4 98.1 97.9 98.1 98.2 97.9 97.8 98.0 98.1 158.2 158.3 160.2 161.7 159.4 159.5 161.5 163.3 156.7 157.7 159.0 160.3 157.2 158.4 160.0 161.4 105.7 106.4 107.3 106.4 104.4 104.9 105.4 104.5 121.3 122.3 123.5 123.8 121.1 122.1 123.3 123.6 114.8 115.0 115.2 116.4 116.0 116.4 116.9 118.2 172.3 174.5 176.4 178.0 172.1 174.0 175.4 177.0 98.4 98.7 99.1 99.0 98.2 98.4 98.5 98.4 163.1 164.0 164.4 167.3 164.8 165.9 166.3 169.3 161.4 162.6 163.4 164.6 162.7 164.1 165.2 166.2 107.3 107.2 105.6 105.5 125.3 125.2 125.1 125.0 116.8 116.8 118.5 118.5 179.1 180.4 178.3 179.3 99.2 100.3 98.8 99.7 167.0 168.2 168.8 170.0 165.3 166.0 167.1 167.7 I n m IV 1984: I n m IV 1985: I n m IV 1986: I n r. Pe rcent chan »e; quarte rly data a seasonal] y adjusted annual rates 1978 1979 0.8 -1.2 0.8 -1.6 5.8 2.0 6.0 1.9 4.9 3.2 5.1 3.5 8.5 9.7 8.6 9.5 0.8 -1.4 0.9 -1.6 7.6 11.1 7.7 11.2 7.3 9.0 7.0 8.9 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 -.3 1.4 -.4 2.7 2.3 -.4 1.0 -.6 3.3 1.8 -1.1 2.1 3.1 4.2 8.1 -1.2 1.7 4.9 8.0 -.8 .7 -2.8 1.5 5.7 .7 .7 2.7 1.6 6.0 10.5 9.2 7.8 4.2 4.1 10.5 9.4 7.8 4.3 4.0 -2.7 -1.0 1.6 1.0 -.1 -2.7 -.9 1.5 1.1 -.3 10.9 7.7 8.3 1.5 1.8 11.0 8.3 8.4 1.1 2.1 9.0 9.6 5.9 3.3 3.5 9.7 9.7 6.3 3.5 3.2 1985 1.0 .5 3.3 3.0 2.2 2.6 4.3 4.0 .7 .4 3.2 3.5 2.9 3.3 5.7 3.0 1982: HI IV 1983: I n m IV 1984: I n m IV 1985: I n m IV 1986: I r n ..... Q O 7.5 4.5 7.5 5.1 .1 2.9 .2 3.4 7.2 1.5 7.6 2.6 5.6 2.4 1.2 5.7 7.6 8.4 3.9 2.6 1.6 5.3 4.4 2.3 2.0 4.4 3.7 -1.6 -2.6 1.1 4.1 -1.9 -2.2 .1 .1 -3.3 3.3 2.4 -.6 -4.7 1.2 3.0 2.5 3.1 2.8 4.8 2.9 2.8 3.7 3.1 7.4 4.8 2.1 2.6 7.6 4.7 2.3 2.6 5.7 2.8 4.6 3.8 5.4 3.2 4.3 4.2 .5 -.8 .8 .1 .3 -.4 .4 .5 1.2 .2 5.0 3.9 3.0 .3 5.1 4.6 4.0 2.6 3.4 3.2 2.7 3.1 4.0 3.7 3.2 3.0 4.0 1.0 2.6 .6 .7 4.3 2.9 1.2 1.8 4.6 4.2 5.1 4.4 3.8 3.9 4.6 3.2 3.7 1.0 1.0 1.8 -.5 .7 .5 .7 -.6 3.3 2.4 1.0 7.2 3.6 2.7 1.0 7.4 2.7 3.0 1.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 2.6 2.4 5.1 -.3 1.4 — .1 .8 .2 2.5 2.7 3.1 2.2 1.0 4.5 1.6 3.9 -.7 3.0 -1.2 2.8 1.8 1.7 2.3 1.5 .2 3.0 -.1 2.4 q ^ 3.9 6.1 -1.6 2.8 5.0 7.3 .8 1.3 4.9 11.7 5.9 10.4 6.3 13.4 8.5 9.8 1.0 5.3 7.7 7.3 4.4 2.6 g -.1 2.4 2.9 -.7 — .4 12.2 7.5 1.7 2.5 10.2 7.7 1.6 2.2 .9 2.7 3.4 -3.2 .3 1.8 2.2 -3.5 3.6 3.3 4.1 1.0 3.3 -.3 4.3 -.5 4.7 4 1 2 g -3.5 -1.2 -3.4 -3.4 -3.4 -3.5 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1982 dollars. Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates baaed primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed. 16 4 8 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers. Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production fell 0.1 percent in July, following declines of 0.3 percent in June and 0.5 percent in May. The index for July was 0.1 percent above its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) 140 TOTAL INDUSTRIE L PRODUC 120 riON INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) 220 FINAL P RODUCTS 200 _—-ir^-'—-— ^-- s—' ^•x^^ ^~~"100 .^ •f 160 1 ll 1 '"" " " ' MANU FACTURINC3 PRODUC1riON I""' ""' ' 140 l "" 1 I"1"1"1" 140 '"'" 120 ^ —JK^ •%.-v_ •— iiiiiil Illllll Hllllllllll i M 1 1 11 11 n | 1 || ||1t M 1 [ | ( 1 1t 1t M I 90 _MANUF>\CTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATIC N 140 UTILITIE SAND MlhMING PROC)UCTION i-=-\. ~*N~-\_— 1982 80 ~— • i ^•^^CrvjF~~-^' ' / " -X '''/^ ^•~—-/ — IMIlhllM him 1983 '— 1984 | | M111111 1 s' 70 ^^— ^" 1 1 1 n h 1 1 11 60 1 1 M 1 1t 1 1 H 1982 1986 1985 r^— 1 /~^ -MINING- 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 RAIL ^ UTILITIES 120 100 BUSINESS^ EQUIPMENT PER CENT* 1 niiiliiin — ^~*" CONSUMER GOODS 'lllilliiiiJIllllllllllll / 100 / 100 _ __^= ~^. - /=~~= S' ^\_ ^^ NONDU (ABLE ,'-''''/ ~. 120 DI JRABLE — DEFEN!5E AND SP/\tt EQUIP MENT \ ~^7* J-"' 180 M 11 1 11 H 11 1983 1 11 11 1 1t 1 M 1984 'SEASONALLY ADJ USTED SOURCE: BOARD C>F GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESE RVE SYSTEM M 1 II 1 1 II I 1 t 1985 | M 1| | t M t 1986 COUNCIL OF EC 3NOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] To tal indus trial produ ction Period Index, 1977 = 100 1977 proportion 100.0 1978 1979 1980 106.5 110.7 108.6 111.0 103.1 109.2 121.8 124.5 124.1 125.2 125.1 124.4 125.4 126.4 126.7 125.6 124.4 125.3 124.6 124.2 124.1 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr ' May r. June r. July" 1 Output as percent of capacity. Capacity utilization rate, pe rcent * Industry proc uction indexes , 1977 = 100 Manufacturing Percent change from year earlier 6.5 3.9 1.9 2.2 -7.1 5.9 11.5 2.2 .7 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.6 2.5 2.5 1.5 .3 .9 .4 i .1 Mining Durable Total Utilities Nondurable 84.21 49.10 35.11 107.1 111.5 108.2 110.5 102.2 110.2 123.9 127.1 126.9 128.2 127.7 127.2 128.4 129.1 129.8 128.8 128.0 129.0 128.7 128.0 128.0 108.2 113.9 109.1 111.1 99.9 107.7 124.8 128.2 127.9 129.4 128.3 127.7 129.2 129.9 130.4 129.0 127.7 128.4 127.5 126.4 126.3 105.5 108.2 107.0 109.7 105.5 113.7 122.5 125.6 125.6 126.6 126.9 126.4 127.3 128.0 129.1 128.5 128.3 129.7 130.4 130.3 130.2 9.83 103.6 106.4 112.4 117.5 109.3 102.9 110.9 109.0 108.7 108.3 108.4 108.4 106.9 107.4 107.4 105.3 102.7 101.5 99.8 99.6 99.2 Manufacturing Industrial materials 84.2 84.6 79.3 78.3 86.3 87.1 81.1 81.1 71.7 75.3 82.3 80.2 79.5 79.9 79.5 79.3 79.2 80.1 80.2 79.6 78.5 78.6 78.0 77.9 77.9 5.96 103.1 105.9 107.3 107.1 104.8 105.2 110.9 113.4 110.7 110.3 113.2 112.4 112.2 116.5 114.6 112.4 112.2 112.4 111.4 111.6 111.4 70.3 74.0 80.8 80.3 80.1 80.7 80.1 79.6 80.2 80.4 80.7 79.8 79.1 79.6 79.3 78.7 78.5 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Produc ts Mate rials Final produc s Internlediate pro< ucts C ansumer go :ids 1Equipment Period Total 1977 proportion 1978 1979.. 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr r. May r June r July" 1 44.77 106.9 111.0 112.2 115.2 109.5 114.7 127.8 132.0 131.8 133.3 133.3 131.9 133.7 134.4 134.4 132.8 131.5 132.8 131.9 131.0 130.9 Total 35.52 104.3 103.9 102.7 104.1 101.4 109.3 118.2 120.7 120.1 121.5 121.8 120.8 122.7 124.2 123.9 123.2 122.5 124.7 124.6 124.2 123.9 Durable goods Nondurable goods 6.89 18.63 103.7 99.9 88.4 89.7 82.9 98.5 112.6 112.9 111.3 114.0 112.9 111.4 115.5 116.8 116.6 116.3 113.0 116.2 113.2 113.7 113.6 104.5 105.4 108.1 109.3 108.3 113.3 120.2 123.6 123.4 124.2 125.1 124.3 125.4 127.0 126.5 125.7 126.0 127.8 128.8 128.1 127.7 Total ' 19.25 110.3 120.4 124.7 129.9 120.2 121.7 140.5 147.0 147.3 149.0 148.6 146.6 148.3 147.9 148.4 145.5 143.4 143.5 141.7 140.1 140.1 Business Defense and space equipment ConTotal struction supplies Total gy 42.28 105.9 110.3 105.3 107.7 96.7 102.8 114.6 114.7 113.8 114.5 114.2 114.2 114.3 115.9 116.2 115.4 114.0 114.3 113.5 113.5 113.6 11.69 supplies 14.34 3.67 12.94 5.95 6.99 112.2 124.7 125.1 127.6 113.6 115.4 134.9 141.2 141.3 143.0 142.2 139.6 141.7 141.4 142.9 141.1 139.1 140.3 138.5 136.8 136.9 101.2 105.6 115.4 119.8 133.0 143.1 157.9 173.6 173.9 175.5 177.5 178.7 180.7 180.7 179.3 176.7 178.5 178.6 179.1 179.3 179.5 106.9 110.8 106.9 107.3 101.7 111.2 124.9 130.6 130.7 132.0 132.3 131.5 132.7 132.9 134.4 134.1 134.1 135.2 135.8 135.4 135.4 106.9 108.7 100.6 98.6 88.3 100.6 114.0 118.9 119.4 121.5 121.3 120.0 120.9 120.7 124.0 123.5 123.5 124.5 124.7 122.7 123.2 106.9 112.7 112.3 114.7 113.1 120.3 134.2 140.5 140.3 140.9 141.7 141.2 142.7 143.3 143.2 143.1 143.0 144.3 145.2 146.2 101.1 104.1 105.5 104.7 101.2 98.4 104.0 104.4 103.5 102.7 103.4 104.2 102.5 105.8 104.1 103.9 102.7 102.1 101.9 102.4 102.9 Includes rigs and prefabs, not shown separately. [1977 — 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] No ndurable nanufactui es Durable m mufactures Transp Drtation Primary metals Period Total 1977 proportion 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr r May r June r July" 5.33 107.0 108.5 90.4 95.0 65.8 73.0 82.4 80.6 79.0 82.0 80.3 83.1 83.6 81.7 84.9 80.7 77.4 78.1 75.7 72.5 73.3 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 Iron and steel 3.49 107.5 108.0 86.3 92.5 57.5 66.1 73.5 70.6 68.7 71.6 69.7 74.4 75.3 72.0 75.5 69.9 64.9 65.6 61.7 59.1 Fabricated metal products 6.46 105.7 109.4 101.8 101.6 86.6 89.1 102.8 107.9 107.3 107.8 107.5 108.4 107.9 108.8 109.3 109.4 108.5 107.6 107.3 107.0 106.5 NonElectrical electrical , machinmachinery ery 9.54 7.15 111.7 122.6 123.3 129.8 115.6 118.3 142.0 146.4 147.5 149.2 146.5 143.0 145.6 146.0 146.2 144.6 143.2 142.0 141.6 139.8 139.5 112.9 125.7 130.3 134.1 128.4 143.8 172.4 169.3 165.7 166.1 165.1 165.1 168.9 171.9 167.9 165.5 165.6 166.7 166.0 162.6 164.4 equip ment Total 9.13 106.3 108.3 96.9 95.1 87.6 99.2 113.6 123.2 123.7 126.8 126.2 124.5 126.5 126.8 128.9 128.1 124.3 127.9 125.4 126.7 126.1 Motor vehicles and parts 5.25 104.6 95.9 71.1 71.6 66.8 85.8 105.6 112.8 112.8 116.8 115.3 111.7 114.5 115.4 117.8 117.8 110.4 114.8 110.7 112.7 112.2 Lumber and products 2.30 102.4 102.0 92.9 90.1 82.8 100.2 109.1 112.9 113.0 114.8 115.9 116.5 115.6 116.5 119.9 118.2 118.5 119.4 119.8 Apparel products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products 2.79 4.54 107.8 112.7 115.1 118.6 120.2 129.8 147.9 155.2 154.3 156.3 156.2 157.0 159.0 158.4 158.9 155.4 158.1 162.0 163.0 163.9 163.8 8.05 106.8 111.4 106.4 112.6 103.8 114.0 121.7 127.1 126.4 128.2 129.0 127.9 128.0 128.5 130.5 130.9 131.1 132.1 132.0 131.7 103.1 98.3 97.3 96.1 87.3 95.3 102.8 101.8 100.6 100.4 101.8 102.6 103.9 105.0 105.8 103.6 104.0 104.3 103.7 103.1 Foods 7.96 104.3 106.7 111.4 113.7 114.9 120.4 127.1 131.0 132.2 132.6 132.5 130.7 131.4 132.6 133.2 133.8 133.0 134.0 135.1 134.3 NEW CONSTRUCTION [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Constructio n contracts 3 Private Period Total new construction expenditures Kesie ential Total Commercial and industrial 2 New housing Total ! Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1977=100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) B illions of dollars 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 224.7 250.3 249.0 257.8 244.4 279.2 327.2 355.6 179.0 201.5 194.0 204.4 193.6 228.5 272.0 292.8 110.4 117.2 101.1 100.0 85.4 126.6 155.1 158.8 86.2 90.1 70.4 70.2 57.7 95.7 115.1 116.0 30.7 42.0 46.7 55.0 58.7 53.8 68.6 82.7 37.9 42.3 46.2 49.4 49.5 48.1 48.2 51.3 114.0 121.0 108.0 112.0 111.0 138.0 150.0 161.0 45.6 48.8 55.0 53.3 50.8 50.7 55.2 62.8 Annual rates Annual rates 1985: June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May r June p July" 352.9 355.1 353.3 361.3 374.0 357.6 365.6 373.4 373.9 368.0 374.1 374.9 375.1 288.4 290.3 289.8 296.0 312.0 294.4 300.6 305.4 305.7 298.9 303.8 302.2 303.9 154.3 156.8 154.9 161.0 174.8 158.2 161.8 163.4 164.7 165.6 170.5 172.6 175.6 80.8 80.6 82.1 84.3 84.1 85.0 88.2 88.4 87.5 81.4 82.0 78.5 77.2 115.4 115.3 115.5 116.1 117.2 117.5 118.7 122.8 124.7 126.5 129.4 132.5 136.3 1 Includes the following categories of private construction not shown separately: residential improvements, railroads, electric light and power, gas, petroleum pipelines, and farm nonresidential. 2 Includes hotels and motels. 977 1,059 904 919 690 756 955 1,064 53.4 52.8 52.8 50.7 53.0 51.2 50.6 53.5 53.5 51.8 51.3 51.1 51.1 154 164 164 167 168 162 162 64.5 64.8 63.5 65.3 62.1 63.2 64.9 68.0 68.3 69.2 70.3 72.7 71.2 146 162 149 176 160 161 163 836 1,103 1,097 1,118 1,104 1,111 951 848 941 840 1,011 921 911 877 3 F. W. Dodge series. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New priv ate homes New private housing units Units started, by type of structure Period Total 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 2,020.3 1,745.1 1,292.2 1,084.2 1,062.2 1,703.0 1,749.5 1,741.8 1 unit 1,433.3 1,194.1 852.2 705.4 662.6 1,067.6 1,084.2 1,072.4 2-4 units 125.0 122.0 109.5 91,1 80.0 113.5 121.4 93.4 5 or more units 462.0 429.0 330.5 287.7 319.6 522.0 544.0 576.1 Units authorized 1,800.5 1,551.8 1,190.6 985.5 1,000.5 1,605.2 1,681.8 1,733.3 Units completed Homes sold 1,867.5 1,870.8 1,501.6 1,265.7 1,005.5 1,390.3 1,652.2 1,703.3 817 709 545 436 412 623 639 1,758 1,722 1,720 1,778 1,541 1,721 1,762 1,778 1,725 1,806 ' 1,693 1,817 1,588 710 745 708 681 637 722 729 735 741 924 884 780 703 688 Vacancy rate Homes for sale at end of period ' 3 414 398 336 272 251 300 356 349 housing units (percent) 2 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.3 5.7 5.9 6.5 Seasonal ly adjusted annu al rates 1985: June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dee 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May ' June r July ". 1,693 1,673 1,737 1,653 1,784 1,654 1,882 2,034 2,001 1,960 2,019 1,853 1,852 1,818 1,036 1,068 1,071 1,006 1,118 1,006 1,098 1,335 1,202 1,221 1,242 1,241 1,229 1,181 95 86 97 85 80 76 83 107 115 84 79 83 81 77 562 519 569 562 586 572 701 592 684 655 698 529 542 560 2 Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable with earlier data. 3 New series beginning March 1979. 1,717 1,709 1,782 1,846 1,703 1,668 1,839 1,861 1,808 1,834 1,885 1,788 1,792 1,754 354 351 348 350 353 353 349 352 352 338 337 340 343 6.2 6.8 6.7 6.9 7.3 NOTE.—Beginning 1984, units authorized are for 17,000 permit-issuing places and for 1978-83 data are for 16,000 places. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturing and trade sales rose 0.6 percent in June and inventories rose $2.4 billion. According to advance data, retail sales rose 0.1 percent in July following a decline of 0.1 percent in June. BILLIC3NS OF DDL LARS* (RATK3 SCALE) BILLIC)NS OF DOLl ARS* (RATIC> SCALE) 650 200 190 _ 180 _ 170 600 500 -—•" '- •" • • 550 r-——^,— 450 "—1 .--' ~ 130 , ^—^-— \ / .-' M ANUFACTUR NG vJD TRADE S/UES A .» 350 •«- ,-•**' 110 — 300 70 , — -'' - •~ \ \ 1 1 1 1 ' ' ' ' ' \\ \\ \ 1 1 1 ( 1 1 1 1M I 11M M 1 M 1 1 1 11 11 1 M 1 M 1 1 1 1 M RATIC)* 1 80 1.60 150 **"' 80 _ 200 —1 A .--•'' — RETAILS/aes 90 — , "" ' 100 250 \ r-'-^RE TAIL INVENT ORIES 120 _ _ ~^ /\ 140 f — *"' "*-**— ^ V -, 160 150 -—- 1 " MA NUFACTURIC4G AND Tl ADE INVEN- ORIES *• — 400 _ _ INVENT DRY-SALES RATIO . _ " > ••• 1.40 - R ETAIL ~1'-^^ \. \ -'-... >— ^,'~ — ^^ ^HV \ MA NUFACTURI vIG AND TRADE 100 II M i l l 1 III nuilum iniiliitii ,,,,,1 1982 1984 1983 i,,m 1.00 1985 II M l l l l III 1982 1986 1983 Inn, , , , , , 1 1984 1985 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE and Manufaet jring trac e 1 Sales Inventories 3 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Sales 2 Inventory-s ales ratio 4 Be ail WM esale Sales 2 I.UlhllM InventoTotal 2 Durable goods stores Inventories Nondurable goods stores Total 3 Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Manufacturing Retail Millions of dollars, seasonally <idjusted 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: June r Julv Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May r June p July" 1 2 3 r 260,805 298,334 328,058 356,919 344,656 368,724 410,737 424,091 399,608 451,460 494,105 528,105 509,555 520,328 575,098 583,148 66,669 79,472 93,704 102,013 96,290 100,424 113,404 114,494 86,405 99,262 113,478 118,259 118,149 120,265 131,544 135,940 418,219 42 1,692 428,015 427,691 425,689 431,326 432,797 580,107 580,318 578,635 578,742 581,516 582,381 583,148 110,880 113,301 115,146 114,344 113,675 115,762 116,852 134,696 134,949 134,869 134,410 134,810 134,831 135,940 431,713 426,854 420,230 428,455 421,613 424,123 584,968 585,176 588,178 588,599 586,727 589,165 115,648 113,380 112,495 114,608 109,870 111,879 136,624 117,349 136,561 117,200 137,056 116,684 137,083 117,715 137,506 118,675 138,909 ' 11 8,602 118,690 See page 21 for manufacturing. Monthly average for year and total for month. Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. 20 T 113,468 114,598 116,276 119,118 114,785 115,433 116,861 43,863 49,397 55,049 59,688 61,279 64,817 68,939 71,645 102,694 111,098 116,346 127,201 126,497 139,381 157,845 165,324 50,136 54,108 55,117 60,327 58,952 66,928 77,142 82,875 52,558 56,990 61,229 66,874 67,545 72,453 80,703 82,449 1.44 1.43 1.45 1.44 1.51 1.38 1.34 1.37 1.43 1.44 1.42 1.41 1.41 1.34 1.39 1.40 71,133 71,674 72,067 72,370 72,430 72,802 72,979 159,733 160,333 159,078 160,302 164,262 165,557 165,324 79,185 79,205 78,042 78,425 81,668 83,056 82,875 80,548 81,128 81,036 81,877 82,594 82,501 82,449 1.39 1.38 1.35 1.35 1.37 1.35 1.35 1.41 1.40 73,162 73,251 73,405 72,841 73,121 ' 73,365 73,498 167,987 169,379 171,551 172,158 170,869 171,846 84,755 85,863 88,132 88,263 87,198 88,445 83,232 83,516 83,419 83,895 83,671 83,401 1.35 1.37 1.40 1.37 1.39 1.39 1.43 1.45 1.47 1.46 1.44 1.45 23,368 25,529 24,914 27,089 28,059 33,041 38,817 42,851 67,231 74,926 79,963 86,777 89,339 97,858 107,755 114,495 r 42,335 42,924 44,209 46,748 42,355 42,631 43,882 44,187 43,949 43,279 44,874 45,554 r 45,237 45,192 r 1.37 1.35 1.43 1.43 1.41 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to £ ver&ge monthly sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In June, manufacturers' shipments rose, inventories were about unchanged, and new and unfilled orders fell. In July, according to advance data, durable goods shipments and new orders rose. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 360 320 SHIPME NTS 200 1 r^- 160 = 120 [ 280 -TOTAL — * 240 DU ?ABLE GOOC)S 80 " r 160 \~\ DURABLE GOODS NO NDURABLE C3OODS "^"N.^ TOTAL 200 L-.W-1 J .-r*~" INVENTORIES - 120 60 80 40 1 1 1 1 I 11 1 1 11 iiiiilimi 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 NONDURABLE GOODS MMlllllll t M 111M M 1 60 BULK3NS OF DOL LARS* (RATIC3 SCALE) NEWO RDERS 200 160 ._ r^~C~-^" \ •=^ RATIO* TOTAL DU RABLE GOO DS 120 s~~ -•—*•— ,_^_ / --•--:: NC iNDURABLE 3OODS ^ 40 40 1 > ' 1 1 1 M H1 him mill, mi 1983 1982 1984 1 1.4 — iimlmii 1985 1.2 1982 1986 1985 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufa cturers' shiprnents * M anufacturers new orders i Manuffu turers' inven tories 2 Durabli goods Period Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Durable goods Total Nondura,ble goods Total Total Capital goods industries, Nondurable goods Manufacturers' unfilled3 orders non- Manufacturers' inventory— shipments ratio 4 defense M] llions of do lars, seasoilally adjust 3d 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 126,905 143,936 154,391 168,129 159,027 170,441 189,578 195,102 67,848 76,060 77,550 83,872 76,693 84,951 98,502 103,649 59,057 67,876 76,841 84,257 82,334 85,491 91,076 91,452 210,509 241,100 264,281 282,645 264,909 260,682 285,709 281,884 137,891 160,533 174,620 186,347 175,103 171,629 191,109 189,164 72,618 80,567 89,661 96,298 89,806 89,053 94,600 92,720 131,546 147,403 156,161 167,752 157,255 173,259 191,634 195,803 72,339 79,451 79,360 83,553 74,996 87,631 100,611 104,305 19,458 23,231 23,259 24,050 20,681 22,764 27,017 27,215 59,207 67,953 76,801 84,199 82,260 85,627 91,024 91,499 259,770 302,145 323,393 319,094 296,918 330,924 355,640 363,809 1985: July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 193,793 196,593 194,229 197,229 200,131 199,084 102,478 105,311 103,656 106,479 107,007 105,777 91,315 91,282 90,573 90,750 93,124 93,307 285,036 284,688 284,030 282,444 281,993 281,884 192,163 192,037 191,930 190,508 190,284 189,164 92,873 92,651 92,100 91,936 91,709 92,720 195,793 198,782 197,332 195,381 196,865 201,213 104,370 107,661 106,641 104,495 103,796 107,531 26,685 27,554 29,240 27,092 25,788 30,566 91,423 91,121 90,691 90,886 93,069 93,682 361,502 363,691 366,794 364,946 361,680 363,809 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June r July" 198,716 196,274 191,051 196,132 193,068 193,642 105,631 105,545 102,693 106,592 103,672 104,553 105,635 93,085 90,729 88,358 89,540 89,396 89,089 280,357 279,236 279,571 279,358 278,352 278,410 188,518 187,644 188,333 188,031 187,637 187,148 91,839 91,592 91,238 91,327 90,715 91,262 201,133 198,559 192,996 193,151 192,122 191,795 108,194 107,545 104,682 103,747 102,624 102,730 107,165 24,288 28,637 26,540 26,179 26,145 26,421 27,427 92,939 91,014 88,314 89,404 89,498 89,065 366,226 368,511 370,456 367,475 366,529 364,682 1 2 3 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales. Book value, end of period. End of period. 1.57 1.57 1.66 1.64 1.73 1.52 1.45 1.46 1.47 1.45 1.46 1.43 1.41 1.42 1.41 1.42 1.46 1.42 1.44 1.44 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In July, the producer price index for all finished goods fell 0.4 percent, seasonally adjusted. The index for finished consumer foods rose 1.9 percent while the index for finished consumer goods excluding foods fell 1.8 percent. Prices of capital equipment rose 0.2 percent. INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 340 INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 340 SEASONALLY ADJUST ED FINISHED GOODS 320 320 cONSUMER GOODS EXCLUDING FO ODS 300 P"^*-*"1*" 280 i i\~'^ //""—x' 260 ^x*^-/ :^N ^~* ** —• <••>•' ^,--J 2&Z21 ^~^\ TO FAL FINISHED GOODS ^- ^ V— _ / x - 300 V s* '•* *• , N _'v / 280 *.' ^— \ " 260 :ONSUMER FO ODS •/••'** ""CAPITAL ECJUIPMENT /s* s' 240 r\ 240 ! b><' t'~~^-' '//*'' 220 /-v / 220 ./I f / *jr t 200 200 ' '''S^ 180 ' [J-fi'l 1 1 1 1 1 1 Illlllllill 1978 1979 Illlllllill Illlllllill Illlllllill 1980 1981 1982 iiiiiiinii iiiiiiinii I l l l l l l l i l l Illlllllill 1985 1984 1983 180 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE; DEPARTMEN T OF LABOR [1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Fin shed goods Period Total finished goods 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar r Apr May June July 1 195.9 217.7 247.0 269.8 280.7 285.2 291.1 293.7 294.3 293.4 291.8 294.4 296.4 298.3 296.1 291.3 288.5 286.8 288.6 288.5 287.3 Consumer foods 207.2 226.2 239.5 253.6 259.3 261.8 273.3 271.2 270.9 269.0 266.4 270.8 273.7 276.5 274.9 270.3 270.7 271.6 274.7 274.7 279.9 Total finished Consumer gc ods consumer goods 194.9 217.9 248.9 271.3 281.0 284.6 290.3 291.8 292.5 291.2 289.6 292.1 294.5 296.7 294.1 287.8 284.1 281.5 283.8 283.6 281.9 Total 190.7 213.3 247.8 273.3 285.8 290.8 294.8 299.0 299.8 299.3 298.0 300.1 301.7 303.3 300.9 296.1 292.2 289.5 290.8 290.7 287.2 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. 22 Fi nished go ads excluding consumer foo is Total 186.7 211.5 250.8 276.5 287.8 291.4 294.1 297.3 298.4 297.5 296.3 298.0 300.0 301.9 2.98.8 291.8 286.0 281.7 283.5 283.2 278.1 Durable Nondurable 166.9 200.0 231.3 183.2 206.2 218.6 226.7 233.1 236.8 241.5 242.1 242.3 239.8 243.0 243.8 243.6 242.3 242.9 243.7 245.6 245.8 246.0 246.5 283.9 319.6 333.6 335.3 337.3 339.3 340.7 339.0 338.9 339.3 342.3 346.0 341.3 328.7 317.9 308.9 312.0 311.4 301.9 Capital equipment 199.2 216.5 239.8 264.3 279.4 287.2 294.0 300.5 300.7 301.3 299.7 302.7 303.4 303.8 303.3 303.7 304.3 305.3 305.5 305.7 306.3 Intern lediate ma terials Cnade maten als Total Foods and feeds 1 Other Total Foodstuffs and feedstuffs Other 215.6 242.2 280.3 306.0 310.4 312.3 320.0 318.7 317.8 317.4 317.2 317.5 318.6 319.9 318.4 313.8 310.1 307.0 306.3 306.4 304.4 203.1 226.1 252.6 250.3 239.4 247.9 253.1 232.8 229.7 226.5 224.9 229.4 232.3 233.9 232.8 229.5 229.0 226.9 228.6 228.3 228.9 216.5 244.4 282.3 310.1 315.7 317.1 325.0 325.0 324.3 324.1 323.9 324.0 325.0 326.2 324.7 320.0 316.1 312.9 312.1 312.2 310.0 234.4 274.3 304.6 329.0 319.5 323.6 330.8 306.1 303.0 296.1 293.1 302.2 308.0 307.0 302.9 286.6 280.2 269.7 275.9 273.0 276.4 216.2 247.9 259.2 257.4 247.8 252.2 259.5 235.0 229.5 221.6 217.7 231.0 240.8 239.7 233.8 225.4 223.3 216.1 224.9 223.2 230.8 272.3 330.0 401.0 482.3 473.9 477.4 484.5 459.2 461.1 456.1 454.9 455.4 453.1 452.4 451.8 418.7 403.1 385.8 386.5 381.2 375.1 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In July, the consumer price index for all urban consumers was unchanged, seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted. The index was 1.6 percent above its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 340 340 320 320 300 300 \ 280 280 "ALL ITEMS 260 260 240 240 220 220 200 200 180 180 1979 1978 1980 1982 1981 1986 1985 1984 1983 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCILOR ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967 = 100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Tr ansportati on Hou sing She Her Period All items 1 Food Total * Renters' 1982=100) NSA Rel. imp.3 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July 100.0 195.4 217.4 246.8 272.4 289.1 298.4 311.1 322.2 322.8 323.5 324.5 325.5 326.6 327.4 328.4 327.5 326.0 325.3 326.3 327.9 328.0 Homeowners' costs (Dec. 1982=100) Fuel and other utilities Total ' New cars Motor fuel 21.4 185.5 212.0 249.7 280.0 291.5 298.4 311.7 319.9 320.3 319.8 319.3 320.5 322.6 323.9 325.5 320.9 311.8 304.0 304.9 307.4 303.6 3.4 153.8 166.0 179.3 190.2 197.6 202.6 208.5 215.2 215.2 215.7 216.2 217.0 217.7 218.4 218.6 219.5 219.9 221.2 223.0 224.4 225.2 5.5 196.3 265.6 369.1 410.9 389.4 376.4 370.7 373.8 379.1 377.4 375.2 374.3 377.4 379.4 380.1 357.2 314.8 279.5 286.4 295.0 275.5 Medical care Ener- 6.5 219.4 239.7 265.9 294.5 328.7 357.3 379.5 403.1 404.3 406.6 409.0 410.9 413.0 415.7 417.5 420.4 424.5 427.2 429.8 432.8 435.0 11.3 220.4 275.9 361.1 410.0 416.1 419.3 423.6 426.5 429.4 427.6 426.8 425.8 428.4 430.3 430.8 414.3 387.5 365.2 366.2 374.8 359.6 gy 2 All items less food, energy, and shelter NSA 18.5 211.4 234.5 254.6 274.6 285.7 291.7 302.9 309.8 309.2 309.6 310.7 311.1 313.2 315.2 315.9 313.8 314.1 315.0 316.4 316.7 319.5 37.9 202.8 227.6 263.3 293.5 314.7 323.1 336.5 349.9 350.3 351.7 352.2 353.3 355.2 356.2 357.1 356.8 357.5 358.5 358.2 360.1 360.2 22.3 210.4 239.7 281.7 314.7 337.0 344.8 361.7 382.0 383.1 385.3 386.1 387.9 390.5 391.9 393.3 394.8 397.3 400.7 401.0 401.8 403.6 7.3 103.0 108.6 115.4 115.8 116.3 116.7 117.5 118.2 118.5 118.8 119.2 119.8 121.1 121.2 121.7 122.5 14.4 102.5 107.3 113.1 113.6 114.3 114.5 114.9 115.7 116.2 116.6 117.0 118.0 118.9 119.1 119.1 119.6 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc. also included through 1982. 3 Relative importance, December 1985. nance and repairs Apparel and upkeep 0.5 233.0 256.4 285.7 314.4 334.1 346.3 359.2 368.9 367.8 370.6 368.7 368.5 372.7 373.7 379.1 379.6 367.5 367.6 367.1 366.6 369.2 8.1 5.0 216.0 239.3 278.6 319.2 350.8 370.3 387.3 393.6 394.2 393.6 394.4 393.7 395.4 396.5 397.2 392.4 388.4 385.7 382.3 388.9 383.4 159.6 166.6 178.4 186.9 191.8 196.5 200.2 206.0 205.6 205.9 206.8 207.7 208.4 208.3 207.7 206.6 206.3 206.9 206.5 205.8 206.2 48.0 179.1 191.5 208.3 228.1 245.6 258.4 271.2 281.6 281.4 282.1 282.6 284.1 285.4 286.2 287.5 288.0 288.6 289.1 289.4 290.4 291.3 NOTE.—Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs and therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Ch» nge from pr seeding peru d Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Conaum r goods Consume r goods Consum r goods Period Change from 6 montl s earlier, ann ual rate Change from 3 montl s earlier, ann ual rate Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Total finished Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods goods Change from year earlier. total finished goods NSA Cha nge, Dec. o Dec., N 3A 1978 1979 1980 12.8 11.8 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 7.1 3.7 .6 1.7 1.8 9.2 7.8 11.7 8.5 7.4 7.5 1.4 2.1 2.3 3.5 .5 17.5 14.2 11.4 11.1 13.5 8.5 4.2 -.8 .8 2.0 9.2 3.9 1.9 1.8 2.7 9.2 4.0 1.6 2.1 .9 7.9 8.8 Cr ange, mon ;h to moril h 0.2 .3 .5 .9 .7 .6 1985: July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 0.9 1.0 1.7 1.1 1.0 -.7 1986: Jan Feb Mar r. Apr ' May June T July 0 n — .4 .6 .7 .6 -.6 -1.6 .1 .3 1.1 0 1.9 1.1 -1.1 .6 -.1 -1.8 0.1 .6 -2.9 — .1 7.2 -2.4 .1 4.2 9.2 -.2 .1 .2 .3 .1 .1 .2 -1.0 -2.3 -2.0 -1.5 -1.7 1.0 -.6 .6 -.0 -.4 0.1 .2 -.5 1.0 .2 .1 3 1.2 -2.9 -2.8 -.5 3.4 7.8 16.0 6.2 2.3 6.7 1.1 -4.9 -8.1 -12.5 12.0 -3.7 -10.5 — 19.5 -21.0 — 10.9 4.7 6.7 6.0 0 .7 3g 12.8 -5.0 1.5 1.7 -.9 2.7 2.8 5.6 .8 .4 .7 2.7 2.4 1.9 1.3 -2.0 -3.3 —4.4 0 3.8 6.1 1.7 1.0 1 .6 1.5 3.2 3.0 1.0 3.3 .6 .7 1.2 -1.4 -2.2 -5.1 -5.2 -6.5 -5.9 2.9 2.8 2.6 1.8 1.6 .3 2 2.4 .3 2.1 2.3 2.3 .9 .8 .2 1.1 1.4 1.8 .3 1.7 1.6 3.1 1.7 1.4 1.3 2.0 -1.4 — 2.1 -1.7 -1.7 -2.3 -3.8 -6.8 -10.6 -10.7 -12.0 -13.4 -1.3 3.7 1.3 -.2 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Tr insportati 3n Housing Shelter Period All items l Food Rent- Total ' Home- Total ' Fuel and other utilities Apparel and upkeep Total ' New cars Adden dum: All ite ns, percent hange (annua 1 rate) All Motor fuel Medical care Energy2 items less food, energy, and shelter From previous From 3 months earlier From 6 months earlier From year earlier NSA C lange, I ecember to Dec jmber, ^ SA 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 9.0 13.3 12.4 11.8 10.2 10.2 8.9 3.9 3.8 4.0 3.8 4.3 3.1 2.6 3.8 2.7 9.9 15.2 13.7 10.2 3.6 3.5 4.2 4.3 5.9 11.5 17.4 15.1 9.9 2.4 4.7 5.2 6.0 16.0 13.6 14.5 5.1 5.9 6.3 4.5 5.1 5.9 9.7 1.8 4.2 1.9 7.7 3.2 5.5 6.8 3.6 1.6 2.9 2.0 2.9 18.2 14.7 11.0 1.7 3.9 3.1 2.6 6.2 7.4 7.5 6.8 1.6 3.4 2.4 3.5 8.5 52.2 18.9 9.4 -6.5 -1.7 -2.4 8.8 8.0 10.1 10.0 12.5 11.0 37.4 18.1 11.9 3.0 6.4 6.1 6.7 0.1 .4 -.6 -.2 .8 .5 0.4 .6 .6 .5 .5 .7 .1 .2 .4 -6.0 .2 -11.9 .6 -11.2 .8 2.5 .6 3.0 .4 -6.6 .4 1.3 5 .2 1.8 7.7 6.5 7.2 11.3 13.5 10.4 9.9 9.4 6.1 5.0 4.4 3.7 6.1 3.2 4.3 3.6 Cha nge, month to nlonth 1985: July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 0.2 .2 .2 .4 .6 .4 0.0 .1 .4 .1 .7 .6 0.3 .4 .1 .3 .5 .3 0.5 .6 .2 .5 .7 .4 0.4 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July .3 -.4 -.4 -.3 .2 .5 .0 .2 .3 -.1 .2 .3 .4 .4 .6 .9 .1 .2 .4 .3 .3 .5 1.1 .1 .4 .7 — .7 1 .1 .3 .4 .1 .9 — .1 .5 .0 .4 .3 .7 .6 .3 0.6 .6 .2 .3 .7 .4 .3 .3 .9 .8 .2 0 .4 .2 .2 -.2 .4 .3 .1 .4 .4 .3 -.0 0.0 .2 -.2 .4 .7 .4 .2 .3 .5 — .5 — 1.4 -2.8 -2.5 -0.1 -0.1 -1.2 -1.0 n .9 1.7 J £ -.1 .3 2 -.3 .2 .3 .8 -1.2 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc., also included through 1982. 3 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. 24 0.1 .2 .2 .4 .3 .3 .7 1.0 .6 .6 .7 .5 -0.2 .4 2 2 .6 .4 .1 -3.8 -6.5 -5.8 .3 2.3 -4.1 0.2 .2 .2 .5 .5 .3 .5 .2 .2 .2 .1 .3 .3 2.6 4.3 1.5 -1.7 2.6 2.6 2.4 3.1 4.5 5.3 3.6 3.4 2.8 2.9 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.8 5.1 1.2 4.1 2.9 1.6 .3 3.9 3.2 2.3 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 -1.9 -4.3 -2.1 1.5 2.7 -.4 -.2 -.8 NOTE.—Data beginning January 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs and therefore are not strictly comparable with data for earlier periods. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers in July were 2.5 percent above their June level. Prices paid by farmers in July were unchanged from their April level. INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SCALE) 180 180 PRICES PAID 160 160 140 140 120 120 PRICES RECEIVED - 100 100 80 80 Illllllllll 60 Illllllllll M i l l 60 RA TIO!/ RAT! OLf — — 120 — — _ -i 1 100 "^— ir-~v^ r\-/ 80 — Illllllllll imimm IIIIIIIIMI IHMHUn 1978 1979 1980 1981 — RATIO _, ' ----, ~^~^->^ • _ 100 80 nm|iim iimiimi iimmm miilimi iimiimi 1983 1982 1985 1984 1986 J/RATtO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE [1977 = 100] Pri ces Period 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: July Aug Sept 1986: Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Livestock and products All farm products 115 132 134 139 133 135 142 128 126 121 120 123 127 128 124 122 122 121 123 121 124 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices and wage rates. 3 Not available. P rices received by farm ers 105 116 125 134 121 128 139 120 121 114 112 111 114 118 113 111 111 114 114 109 105 124 147 144 143 145 141 146 136 130 128 128 134 138 137 135 133 132 127 131 133 142 4 All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates * paid by farmer s Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates 108 123 138 151 157 161 164 163 163 162 162 162 162 162 163 163 (3) 161 (3) (3) 161 109 125 139 151 156 159 161 157 156 156 155 154 155 155 156 155 (3) 153 (3) (3) 153 Ratio Production items 108 125 138 148 150 153 155 151 150 149 148 148 149 149 150 149 (3) 146 (3) (3) 145 2 106 107 97 92 85 84 86 79 77 75 74 76 78 79 76 75 75 75 4 76 4 75 77 Derived using prices paid index for April. NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1977 = 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES In July, growth in the money aggregates accelerated. BILLIONS Of DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,400 3,200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS"(RATIO SCALE) 3,400 3,200 2,800 2,800 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 —r M2 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 800 800 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 300 III n 11 1978 1981 1980 1985 1983 • AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1985: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan ' Feb r Mar ' Apr r May '. June r July" Ml M2 M3 Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OCDs) Ml plus overnight KPs and Eurodollars, MMMF balances (general purpose and broker/dealer), HMD As, and savings and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, term EPs, term Eurodollars, and institution-only MMMF balances 363.0 388.7 414.2 441.1 479.9 527.1 558.5 626.6 596.2 604.8 611.5 614.2 620.1 626.6 627.2 631.0 638.4 646.1 658.7 666.7 676.2 1,388.9 1,497.5 1,630.3 1,792.8 1,952.6 2,186.0 2,373.8 r 2,566.5 r 2,496.2 r 2,515.6 r 2,529.9 r 2,538.9 r 2,551.4 '2,566.5 2,569.9 2,577.6 2,592.3 2,622.4 2,649.7 2,670.9 2,698.9 1,646.4 1,803.2 1,987.4 2,233.6 2,443.5 2,697.3 2,986.5 r 3,201.1 r 3, 112.2 ••3,130.5 r 3, 150.8 r 3,165.7 r 3,181.2 r 3,201.1 3,224.4 3,241.3 3,262.2 3,293.2 3,311.6 3,332.9 3,369.0 1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. 26 L M3 plus other liquid assets 1,909.0 2,114.8 2,323.3 2,593.7 2,850.1 3,163.5 3,532.3 r 3,838.2 r 3,683.3 r 3,711.5 r 3,739.7 r 3,761.6 r 3,799.2 r 3,838.2 3,860.5 3,878.9 3,892.4 3,916.2 3,949.3 3,967.1 Debt Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors (monthly average) l 3,169.4 3,554.9 3,894.5 4,269.7 4,661.3 5,192.0 5,952.0 r 6,810.0 6,389.8 6,460.3 6,525.3 6,592.0 ' 6,680.5 r 6,810.0 6,913.9 6,964.1 7,012.4 7,070.5 7,133.3 7,194.6 Perce nt change from yeai or 6 months earlier 2 Ml 8.3 7.1 6.6 6.5 8.8 9.8 6.0 12.2 12.2 12.9 14.2 13.8 13.3 12.4 10.7 8.9 9.0 10.7 12.8 13.2 16.2 NOTE.—See p. 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. M2 8.0 7.8 8.9 10.0 8.9 12.0 8.6 8.1 8.2 7.9 8.4 r 8.8 r 8.3 r 7.2 6.0 5.0 5.0 6.7 7.9 8.3 10.3 M3 11.8 9.5 10.2 12.4 9.4 10.4 10.7 r 7.2 6.7 r 6.5 r 7.0 r 7.6 7.4 6.8 7.3 7.2 7.2 8.2 8.4 8.4 9.2 Debt 13.3 12.2 9.6 9.6 9.2 11.4 14.6 14.4 12.7 13.1 13.3 13.3 14.0 16.1 17.1 16.2 15.5 15.0 14.0 11.6 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Other Period 1978: Dec 1979: Dec 1980: Dec 1981: Dec 1982: Dec 1983: Dec 1984: Dec 1985: Dec 1985: July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May r June r July" Demand deposits Currency checkable deposits (OCDs) 97.6 106.4 116.7 124.1 253.5 261.1 265.3 234.6 8.5 17.4 28.0 78.0 134.3 148.3 158.5 170.6 237.9 242.7 248.4 271.5 103.4 131.3 146.3 178.6 165.3 166.9 167.7 168.7 169.8 170.6 260.4 263.1 266.4 266.0 267.8 271.5 164.8 169.0 171.5 173.7 176.7 178.6 171.9 172.9 173.9 174.4 175.8 176.7 177.6 268.9 269.2 273.2 275.7 281.6 284.9 288.3 180.5 183.1 185.2 189.9 195.1 199.0 203.9 Overnight repurchase agreements (KPs), net, plus overnight Eurodollars Money market mutua fund bala ices General purpose and broker/ dealer Institution only Money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) Savings deposits Small denomination time deposits ' Large denomination time deposits ' NSA NSA 20.3 21.2 28.3 35.9 38.8 53.8 56.3 r 70.3 6.4 33.4 61.6 150.6 185.2 138.2 167.5 176.5 3.1 9.5 15.2 38.0 51.1 43.2 62.7 64.6 0.0 .0 .0 .0 43.2 379.2 417.0 512.0 482.0 423.9 401.4 344.8 357.9 306.6 289.7 303.6 521.5 635.3 730.2 825.1 852.8 785.2 887.5 880.3 r 60.8 63.8 r 64.5 r 65.2 r 66.4 r 70.3 175.8 176.8 176.7 177.0 176.8 176.5 65.0 63.6 62.3 63.3 64.5 64.6 487.2 495.2 499.8 504.1 509.5 512.0 296.7 299.7 300.3 302.3 303.7 303.6 888.0 r418.2 880.9 421.0 878.3 425.6 875.7 429.7 876.0 432.9 880.3 436.5 r 177.7 181.0 186.2 191.4 193.2 197.2 199.4 67.3 67.7 70.2 74.1 76.1 75.0 77.5 515.7 516.3 520.5 525.2 530.8 540.4 546.2 304.0 304.9 306.9 311.4 318.5 325.0 331.2 885.9 891.0 894.7 896.2 891.2 885.9 883.3 r 68.9 68.5 r 67.5 r 68.4 69.1 66.4 71.9 r NSA NSA 1 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $1<>0,(XX) and more than $100,000, respectively. 195.1 222.1 259.0 301.8 327.8 329.9 413.9 436.5 447.9 451.2 450.5 452.1 446.3 445.6 446.5 Term repurchase agreements (RPs) Term Eurodollars (net) NSA NSA O 0 .. oav- ings on s Shortterm Treasury securities Bankers' acceptances Commercial paper 79.2 97.0 98.1 102.8 109.9 135.6 161.8 209.5 26.6 29.5 34.0 36.0 34.5 51.8 62.2 r 66.0 31.8 44.7 50.3 67.5 81.7 91.5 83.1 76.7 80.3 79.6 72.3 67.8 68.0 71.2 74.3 79.5 81.1 107.8 133.4 149.6 184.4 214.9 266.0 307.1 22.0 27.2 32.1 39.9 44.3 44.5 43.6 41.1 r 55.8 57.3 58.6 r 59.8 r 63.3 r 66.0 77.6 78.8 78.9 78.2 78.4 76.7 76.7 77.2 279.2 277.3 280.6 280.9 299.5 307.1 43.7 43.6 43.2 43.9 43.1 41.1 171.6 182.9 187.2 192.5 196.4 209.5 r 76.0 79.2 82.7 81.0 78.3 77.6 76.1 79.9 304.1 80.5 r 305.8 81.1 298.0 81.8 ' 297.2 82.6 308.3 83.4 304.4 41.5 42.1 41.6 41.0 40.1 40.0 210.6 209.2 209.5 203.0 206.7 206.3 r r 68.8 70.5 71.4 r 71.2 73.0 73.4 73.6 r r 78.0 78.5 79.0 79.5 Travelers checks an; a component of money Rtock hut are not shown here. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. NOTE.—See note p. 26. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Ins tallment credit outstanding (end of perio J) Period Total 1976: 1977: 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1985: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar Aprr May r. June p 187,782 221,475 261,976 296,483 297,667 314,321 327,173 376,239 453,580 535,098 493,253 500,039 506,090 516,420 522,978 528,621 535,098 542,753 547,852 550,939 555,810 562,267 567,339 Automobile Revolving 66,821 80,948 98,739 112,475 112,255 120,020 125,369 16,595 36,689 45,202 53,357 54,894 60,750 66,007 78,369 98,514 118,296 109,260 110,904 112,373 113,850 115,218 117,050 118,296 119,682 120,724 122,131 123,442 124,545 124,825 145,908 173,122 206,482 189,459 191,201 192,923 198,656 201,994 203,766 206,482 210,661 213,342 214,361 215,814 218,965 222,695 1 For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for nonthly data, change from preceding month. Mobile home 15,738 16,362 16,921 18,207 19,119 20,382 20,998 22,194 24,184 25,461 24,768 25,015 25,173 25,341 25,320 25,315 25,461 25,371 25,573 25,584 25,513 25,561 25,486 Net Other Total 88,628 87,476 101,114 112,444 111,399 20,739 33,693 40,501 34,507 1,184 113,169 114,799 129,768 157,760 184,859 169,766 172,919 175,621 178,573 180,446 182,490 184,859 187,039 188,212 188,863 191,041 193,196 194,334 16,654 12,852 49,066 77,341 81,518 4,391 6,786 6,051 10,330 6,558 5,643 6,477 7,655 5,099 3,087 4,871 6,457 5,072 change in in stallment crt.dit outstandii'g 1 Automobile Revolving 9,832 14,127 17,791 13,736 -220 7,765 5,349 20,539 27,214 33,360 1,926 1,742 1,722 5,733 3,338 1,772 2,716 4,179 2,682 1,019 1,452 3,151 3,730 2,088 20,094 8,513 8,155 1,537 5,856 5,257 12,362 20,145 19,782 888 1,644 1,469 1,477 1,368 1,832 1,246 1,386 1,042 1,407 1,311 1,103 280 Mobile home 350 624 559 1,286 912 1,263 616 1,196 1,990 1,277 98 247 158 168 21 146^ 90 203 11 -71 48 -75 Other 8,469 — 1,152 13,638 11,330 -1,045 1,770 1,630 14,969 27,992 27,099 1,479 3,153 2,702 2,952 1,873 2,044 2,369 2,180 1,173 651 2,178 2,155 1,138 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Systei 27 BANK LOANS AND SECURITIES, AND RESERVES Commercial and industrial loans rose 0.4 percent in June following a decline of 0.2 percent in May. BIL LIONS OF DOL LARS * (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCA E) 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 — 1,400 — ' ,__• TOTAL ' \ •1,000 — 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 — 1,000 ALL COM/ rtERCIAL BANK s ~~J—~- 800 ^. — ' — " ^^_^- —' _•— r*—— .--• — -r— ---" LO ANS AND LEAS ES 800 — 600 — 600 400 U.S. GOV ERNMENT SEC URITIES — — ,. • /' .. -. „— «~ " / ._ „.• .- — "' \ OTHER SECURI IES 120 Illllllllll Illllllllll 80 1978 miiliim 1979 Illllllllll Illllllllll I l l l l l l l l l l I l l l l l l l l l l 1981 1980 1982 l l l l l l l | | l | Illllllllll 1984 1983 120 ' SEASONALLY ADJUSTED. SOURCE: 8OARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 80 1986 1985 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Al commercial ban I S 3 Depo itory institutio ns 1 Borr wings (millions of dollars, unad usted) K sserves adjust 3d for changes i i Loans a nd leases Period Total 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1985: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June " July" 1,014.4 1,136.2 1,240.5 1,308.2 1,401.1 1,553.5 1,722.6 1,900.4 1,822.2 1,833.9 1,847.2 1,855.5 1,876.0 1,900.4 1,930.0 1,935.5 1,944.6 1,947.9 1,957.5 1,963.8 2 747.5 849.9 915.4 968.4 1,033.9 1,123.7 1,319.7 1,449.7 1,398.2 1,408.0 1,418.0 1,424.0 1,436.8 1,449.7 1,469.3 1,473.7 1,491.8 1,495.8 1,501.5 1,505.4 Commercial and industrial loans 246.2 291.3 327.4 355.9 392.5 414.0 472.9 499.5 488.5 489.7 492.1 492.7 495.7 499.5 502.1 502.4 506.1 507.8 506.7 508.7 Government securities Total 129.3 142.0 154.5 160.6 165.3 170.1 142.1 177.6 148.5 150.7 153.6 157.3 163.3 177.6 192.5 188.1 183.3 182.1 181.9 183.6 137.6 144.4 170.6 179.2 201.9 259.7 260.9 273.1 275.4 275.1 275.5 274.2 276.0 273.1 268.2 273.6 269.5 270.0 274.1 274.9 1 Data are prorated averages of Wednesday figures for domestically chartered banks and averages of month-end data for foreign-related institutions. Data beginning January 1984 are not strictly comparable with data for earlier periods, largely because beginning January 1984 certain obligations of States and political subdivisions are included in loans rather than in other securities. 28 res erve recunrem ents U.S. Total loans and securities 2 2 3 27.85 29.15 30.99 32.19 34.41 36.16 39.51 45.61 43.08 43.65 43.88 44.24 44.85 45.61 45.88 46.37 46.87 47.28 48.58 49.45 50.49 borrowed 26.99 27.67 29.30 31.55 33.78 35.38 36.32 44.29 41.98 42.58 42.59 43.06 43.11 44.29 45.11 45.49 46.10 46.38 47.70 48.64 49.75 Required 27.62 28.70 30.48 31.87 33.91 35.59 38.66 44.55 42.23 42.83 43.22 43.49 43.92 44.55 44.77 45.27 45.97 46.47 47.74 48.51 49.59 Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States. Data are averages of daily figures. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Total 868 1,473 1,690 636 634 774 3,186 1,318 1,107 1,073 1,289 1,187 1,741 1,318 770 884 761 893 876 803 741 Seasonal 135 81 116 54 33 96 113 56 167 221 203 172 107 56 36 56 68 73 94 108 116 SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Uses Sources External Period Total Internal Cr edit market fu nds J Total Total 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1984: 39.5 27.4 126.5 67.8 92.0 124.3 97.5 63.3 27.3 123.8 81.4 76.9 15.5 -8.5 7.0 31.2 45.8 40.0 53.6 44.2 -27.8 -57.6 .5 40.3 141.7 150.1 84.7 129.5 93.8 94.3 33.6 9.4 491.9 468.1 394.5 476.0 356.6 381.8 385.5 381.1 135.3 86.3 9.0 94.9 40.7 53.0 68.2 52.6 69.5 80.5 53.1 134.3 -9.5 35.5 15.3 24.3 79.0 45.0 37.8 110.0 .3 20.6 52.9 62.1 394.6 420.1 445.4 521.8 356.5 365.8 365.2 387.3 38.1 54.3 80.2 134.5 33.6 45.6 43.4 54.1 105.7 45.7 60.0 43.7 498.5 390.7 107.8 47.7 81.0 88.2 93.0 92.2 83.5 84.7 115.4 84.5 33.3 21.0 52.1 21.8 44.0 57.3 -11.2 16.8 532.6 521.1 462.7 528.7 324.8 334.4 343.9 349.6 207.8 186.7 118.8 179.1 113.9 92.5 85.2 169.8 IV 428.2 465.7 488.7 576.0 358.4 364.6 382.7 379.5 69.8 101.1 106.0 196.5 I" 546.2 396.8 149.4 1985: I n m Discrepancy (sources less uses) 216.9 238.3 244.1 286.3 256.3 271.4 376.3 368.7 142.2 156.5 148.5 141.3 87.1 147.0 173.1 118.5 IV Increase in financial assets 309.0 362.5 341.6 349.6 283.6 395.1 457.6 445.6 182.3 197.6 200.1 239.5 242.3 288.1 338.1 371.3 m Other 2 Capital expenditures 3 61.3 68.2 55.5 49.2 3.6 62.3 57.8 34.0 324.5 354.0 348.6 380.8 329.4 435.1 511.3 489.8 I II 1986: Loans and short-term paper Securities and mortgages Total 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained abroa f . ....... , , , , ,. , . . • , TT « " Consists olr tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.h. 47.7 67.3 40.9 70.4 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars, except as noted] Current liabilitie s Current assets End of period Total Cash U.S. Governsecurities QFR-FRB series: 2 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985" 1983: m rv 1984: 1985: I n in rv I n m IV " 1 1,043.7 1,214.8 1,328.3 1,419.6 1,437.1 1,575.9 1,703.0 1,778.5 1,537.3 1,575.9 1,619.5 1,650.0 1,685.9 1,703.0 1,718.4 1,729.8 1,756.7 1,778.5 105.5 118.0 127.0 135.6 147.8 171.8 173.6 188.0 155.0 171.8 167.6 164.9 161.3 173.6 166.7 168.0 174.6 188.0 17.2 16.7 18.7 17.7 23.0 31.0 36.2 32.3 27.5 31.0 35.4 37.2 33.0 36.2 35.0 34.8 31.9 32.3 Notes and accounts receivable Inventories 388.0 459.0 507.5 532.5 517.4 583.0 633.1 671.2 567.5 583.0 606.4 622.6 639.1 633.1 649.5 652.4 658.6 671.2 Total current assets divided by total current liabilities. 2 Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations. Effective mid-1982, responsibility for the Quarterly Financial Report was transferred to 431.8 505.1 543.0 584.0 579.0 603.4 656.9 663.9 600.8 603.4 622.2 632.5 659.3 656.9 666.1 666.6 674.7 663.9 Other current assets 101.1 116.0 132.1 149.7 169.8 186.7 203.2 223.2 186.6 186.7 187.9 192.9 193.2 203.2 201.0 208.0 217.0 223.2 Total 669.5 807.3 890.6 971.3 986.0 1,059.6 1,163.6 1,232.7 1,040.2 1,059.6 1,093.1 1,126.3 1,155.0 1,163.6 1,173.2 1,179.4 1,209.1 1,232.7 Notes and accounts payable 383.0 460.8 514.4 547.1 550.7 595.7 647.8 683.1 571.0 595.7 601.9 623.4 642.2 647.8 636.4 649.8 668.1 683.1 Other current liabilities 286.5 346.5 376.2 424.1 435.3 463.9 515.8 549.7 469.2 463.9 491.2 502.9 512.9 515.8 536.8 529.7 541.0 549.7 Net working capital 374.3 407.5 437.8 448.3 451.1 516.3 539.5 545.7 497.1 516.3 526.5 523.7 530.8 539.5 545.2 550.3 547.6 545.7 Current ratio 1 1.559 1.505 1.492 1.462 1.458 1.487 1.464 1.443 1.478 1.487 1.482 1.465 1.460 1.464 1.465 1.467 1.453 1.443 the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census from the Federal Trade Commission. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census), and Federal Trade Commission. INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates fell in August. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM [Percent per annum] U.S. T reasury security yields Period IJ-month hills (new issues) 1 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 198.r>: Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Fob Mar Apr May June July Aug* Week ended: 1986: July 26 Aug V 9 16 23 30 3-ycar 10-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor's) 3 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) " commercial paper, 6 months l Discount rate (N.Y. F.R. Bank) 5 Prime rate charged by banks 5 mortgage yields (FHLBB) ' 8.63 9.58 7.48 11.55 14.44 12.92 10.45 11.89 9.64 11.46 13.91 13.00 11.10 12.44 10.62 8.51 11.23 11.57 9.47 10.15 8.18 11.94 14.17 13.79 12.04 12.71 1 1 .37 12.29 14.76 11.89 8.89 10.16 8.01 11.77 13.41 11.02 8.50 8.80 7.69 15.27 18.87 14.86 10.79 12.04 9.93 12.66 14.70 15.14 12.57 12.38 11.55 7.18 7.08 7.17 7.20 7.07 9.31 9.37 9.25 8.88 8.40 10.33 10.37 10.24 9.78 9.26 9.18 9.37 9.24 8.64 8.51 11.05 11.07 11.02 10.55 10.16 7.74 7.86 7.79 7.69 7.62 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.50 9.50- 9.50 9.50- 9.50 9.50- 9.50 9.50- 9.50 9.50- 9.50 11.24 11.17 11.09 11.01 10.94 7.04 7.03 6.59 6.06 6.12 6.21 5.84 5.57 8.41 8.10 7.30 6.86 7.27 7.41 6.86 6.52 9.19 8.70 7.78 7.30 7.71 7.80 7.30 7.18 8.06 7.44 7.07 7.32 7.67 7.98 7.62 10.05 9.67 9.00 8.79 9.09 9.13 8.88 8.74 7.62 7.54 7.08 6.47 6.53 6.63 6.24 5.87 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.00 7.00-6.50 6.50-6.50 6.50-6.50 6.50-6.00 6.00-5.50 9.50- 9.50 9.50- 9.50 9.50- 9.00 9.00- 8.50 8.50- 8.50 8.50- 8.50 8.50- 8.00 8.00- 7.50 10.89 10.68 10.50 10.27 10.22 5.72 5.86 5.70 5.60 5.64 5 3' 6.82 6.89 6.75 6.55 6.35 7.26 7.41 7.39 7.19 7.04 7.70 7.65 7.67 7.41 7.13 8.86 8.88 8.85 8.74 8.66 6.17 6.16 6.13 5.93 5.73 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-5.50 8.008.008.008.008.008.00- 11.506 14.029 10.686 Aug Sept Constant n atunties 2 5.50- r !0.15 10.32 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 5 2 y uore actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury De- |wrl,m( is Wednesday figures, des public utility issues for January 17, 1»H4 through Oefober I I , li)84 due to lack Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 6 Kffoctive rate {in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. 'Preliminary; based on data through August 27, lilBti. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Hank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 30 COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices rose in August. INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 PERCENT PERCENT 20 20 EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS (S&P) 15 15 10 10 5 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION Co mmon stock price s 1 2 Nevv York Stock Exi hangc indexes (F ec. 31, 1965-5 Common st ock yields (perce nt) 6 I) Period Composite Industrial tion Utility Finance Dow-Jones industrial average 3 Standard & Poor's composite index (194143=10) 4 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 198.r» 68.10 74.02 68.93 92.63 92.46 108.09 78.70 85.44 78.18 107.45 108.01 123.79 60.61 72.61 60.41 89.36 85.63 104.11 37.35 38.91 39.75 47.00 46.44 56.75 64.25 73.52 71.99 95.34 89.28 114.21 891.41 932.92 884.36 1,190.34 1,178.48 1,328.23 118.78 128.05 119.71 160.41 160.46 186.84 1985: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 109.09 106.62 107.57 113.93 119.33 124.92 122.35 123.65 130.53 136.77 109.92 104.96 103.72 108.61 113.52 56.99 55.93 55.84 59.07 61.69 114.68 110.21 112.36 122.83 128.86 1,326.18 1,317.95 1,351.58 1,432.88 1,517.02 188.31 184.06 186.18 197.45 207.26 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr Mav June July Aug' 120.16 126.43 133.97 137.27 137.37 140.82 138.32 140.46 137.13 144.03 152.75 157.30 158.59 163.15 158.06 159.62 115.72 124.18 128.66 126.17 122.21 120.65 112.03 110.80 62.46 65.18 68.06 69.46 68.65 70.69 74.20 77.54 132.36 142.13 153.94 155.07 151.28 151.73 150.23 152.33 1,534.86 1,652.73 1,757.35 1,807.05 1,801.80 1,867.70 1,809.92 1,837.58 208.19 219.37 232.33 237.97 238.46 245.30 240.18 244.17 Week ended: 1986: July 12 19 26 Aug 2 r 9 16 23 139.58 136.07 137.39 135.71 136.19 140.76 143.07 160.34 154.96 156.30 154.23 155.00 160.19 162.31 115.83 110.60 108.82 106.98 106.67 111.27 112.60 72.91 73.82 75.34 75.12 75.06 76.92 79.60 151.48 148.50 149.47 146.63 146.92 153.64 155.15 1,827.81 1,779.22 1,794.85 1,771.82 1,779.08 1,838.33 1,876.55 242.74 235.84 238.25 235.64 236.76 244.62 248.70 1 Avenge of daily closing prices. Include* all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE. Includes :i() slocks. 4 Includes f><X) stocks. B Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing price price ratios based on prices at cud of quarter. 5.26 5.20 5.81 4.40 4.64 4.25 4.23 4.32 4.28 4.06 3.88 3.90 3.72 3.50 3.43 3.42 3.36 3.43 Earningsprice ratio 12.66 11.96 11.60 8.03 10.02 8.12 8.35 r 6.91 7.19 3.40 3.52 3.45 3.49 3.49 3.66 3.31 NOTK.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). 2 3 Dividendprice ratio Earnings- "Preliminary; based on data through August 27, 1986. York Stock Exchange, I)ow-,!ones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's CorSources: N, poration. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first 10 months of fiscal 1986, there was a deficit of $189.1 billion compared with a deficit of $183.6 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,000 RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS^ 1,000 900 900 -OUTLAYS: 800 800 700 700 600 600 RECEIPTS- 500 500 400 400 SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (- -100 -100 -200 -200 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 FISCAL YEARS L/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Fiscal vear or period Receipts Outlavs Surplus or deficit (-) Receipts Outlavs Gross Fe( eral debt (end of period) Off-budget On-budget Total Surplus of deficit (-) Receipts Outlavs Surplus or deficit (-) Held bv the public 1975 1976 Transition quarter 1977 1978 1979 279.1 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 332.3 371.8 96.0 409.2 458.7 503.5 -53.2 -73.7 — 14.7 -53.6 -59.2 -40.2 216.6 231.7 63.2 278.7 314.2 365.3 271.9 302.2 76.6 328.5 369.1 403.5 — 55.3 -70.5 -13.3 -49.7 -54.9 -38.2 62.5 66.4 18.0 76.8 85.4 98.0 60.4 69.6 19.4 80.7 89.7 100.0 2.0 -3.2 -1.4 -3.9 -4.3 -2.0 544.1 631.9 646.4 709.1 780.4 833.8 396.9 480.3 498.3 551.8 610.9 644.6 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 851.8 -73.8 -78.9 -127.9 -207.8 -185.3 403.9 469.1 474.3 453.2 500.4 476.6 543.0 594.3 661.2 686.0 -72.7 -73.9 -120.0 -208.0 -185.6 113.2 130.2 143.5 147.3 166.1 114.3 135.2 151.4 147.1 165.8 — 1.1 -5.0 -7.9 .2 .3 914.3 1,003.9 1,147.0 1,381.9 1,576.7 715.1 794.4 929.4 1,141.8 1,312.6 734.1 765.2 831.2 946.3 995.4 975.1 -212.3 -230.2 -143.9 547.9 564.3 615.2 769.5 811.3 781.4 -221.6 -247.0 -166.2 186.2 200.9 216.0 176.8 184.2 193.6 9.4 16.7 22.4 1,827.5 2,140.6 2,354.9 1,509.9 1,744.6 1,888.1 604.5 634.6 788.0 823.6 -183.6 -189.1 450.0 467.5 638.3 672.6 -188.4 -205.1 154.5 167.1 149.7 151.0 4.8 16.0 1,805.3 2,078.7 1,487.7 1,703.1 1985 1986 (estimates) 1987 (estimates) 1 1 Cumulative total, first 10 months: Fiscal vear 1985 Fiscal vear 1986 1 Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1987 i tudget. Office of Management and Budget, August 6. 1986. 32 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 10 months of fiscal 1986, receipts were $30.1 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $35.6 billion higher. BILLIO NS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DO LLARS 400 _ RECEIPTS!/ INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES — — •• 200 •- ~~ — ^nriA[ |tJ<;iiBAN<"F TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS 200 : "CORPORATION INCOME TAXES 100 100 -BOTHER RECEIPTS 0 ' | 0 OUTLAYS^ 700 700 NONDEFENSE 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 NATIONAL DEFENSE- 300 200 200 100 100 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 FISCAL YEARS J/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] On-budget a nd off-buc jet receip Fiscal year Total Individual taxes Corporation taxes On-bud jet and ol -budget 01 tlays s Social insurance Nationa defense Otber Depart- Total Total and butiona 1976 1977 1978 1979 90.8 106.5 121.0 138.9 118.5 139.6 156.0 170.7 178.2 52.5 68.7 85.0 89.8 111.1 131.4 133.5 125.4 122.3 118.6 16.2 16.3 15.8 33.5 36.4 35.9 65.8 69.0 67.1 128.2 119.7 120.7 188.6 199.5 207.5 129.4 138.9 139.1 131.8 144.2 106.8 12.9 10.9 28.0 29.7 54.7 57.8 110.2 101.4 157.2 165.5 107.1 114.0 110.2 117.4 131.0 153.8 180.7 209.0 239.4 209.9 227.4 204.4 220.8 13.1 12.3 11.8 15.9 61.3 61.6 75.0 265.2 284.2 304.6 73.0 70.3 69.9 946.3 995.4 252.7 975.1 282.2 245.4 263.5 274.4 49.3 50.6 220.3 236.7 60.8 61.2 788.0 823.6 207.8 226.9 201.5 64.6 61.1 49.2 37.0 56.9 157.8 182.7 201.5 600.6 666.5 285.9 297.7 288.9 298.4 1985 734.1 334.5 1986 (estimate) ' 1987 (estimate) 1 765.2 831.2 349.1 381.7 604.5 634.6 274.1 286.1 1 Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1887 Budget, Office of Management and Budget, August 8, 1986. NOTE.—Data shown here exclude the transition quarter. 28.6 30.4 86.5 99.7 107.7 122.6 112.7 134.0 157.5 185.3 244.1 599.3 851.8 271.4 220.5 Other 32.1 39.1 46.6 52.6 57.5 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 517.1 est 26.5 50.6 69.5 69.3 65.6 71.8 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 37.7 40.8 Net inter- tv 82.8 93.0 114.7 119.6 95.3 102.3 113.7 65.7 Social securi- ty 26.7 29.9 35.4 42.6 88.1 97.2 104.5 116.3 34.3 36.6 Income securi- 73.9 85.1 93.9 104.1 89.6 41.4 54.9 60.0 Medi- 60.8 61.0 61.5 66.4 371.8 131.6 157.6 181.0 217.8 617.8 Health 409.2 458.7 503.5 355.6 399.6 463.3 Cumulative total, first 10 months: Fiscal vear 1985 Fiscal year 1986 298.1 Defense, military Interaffairs 6.4 6.4 7.5 7.5 12.7 15.7 17.3 18.5 20.5 23.2 26.9 27.4 15.8 19.3 22.8 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the second quarter of 1986, according to preliminary estimates, Federal receipts rose $5.9 billion (annual rate) and expenditures rose $41.2 billion, yielding a deficit of $236.9 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 -200 -200 1986 1982 1978 CALENDAR YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADViSERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal G overnment expenditure s Federal Govemme it receipts Period Total Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax Contributions for social insurance Total Purchases of goods and Transfer payments in-aid to State and local Net interest paid ments Subsidies less current surplus of Government enter- Less: Wage accruals less disbursements or deficit (-), national income and product accounts 1983 1984 1985 659.9 726.5 786.8 294.5 309.3 345.6 61.3 75.9 73.6 51.6 55.7 56.1 252.5 285.5 311.5 835.9 896.5 984.9 283.5 311.3 354.1 348.6 355.0 380.3 86.2 93.6 99.0 94.3 115.6 130.5 22.9 21.3 20.7 0.4 .2 2 176.0 -170.0 198.0 1982: m IV 630.3 633.1 298.1 303.0 50.1 46.4 47.1 47.6 235.0 236.1 789.1 835.7 275.3 293.2 329.1 347.4 83.3 84.5 87.1 87.2 14.3 23.4 .0 .0 158.8 -202.6 1983: I 636.5 666.0 661.6 675.5 297.1 303.3 285.4 291.9 46.7 59.7 68.8 70.2 46.3 52.9 53.7 53.6 246.4 250.1 253.7 259.8 822.7 837.4 838.9 844.7 285.5 287.7 284.9 276.1 344.2 351.1 346.6 352.5 86.0 86.1 86.8 86.0 88.1 91.1 96.8 101.0 18.9 20.2 .0 1.3 23.4 29.1 — .4 -186.2 -171.4 -177.3 169.2 1984: I 711.2 721.7 729.2 743.9 295.9 301.7 314.3 325.5 81.9 80.9 71.0 69.9 54.6 55.8 56.3 55.9 278.8 283.3 287.6 292.6 865.2 885.6 901.1 934.0 283.4 315.2 317.2 329.1 350.1 351.7 356.0 362.1 91.5 93.4 92.6 96.9 107.3 110.4 119.7 124.9 32.9 15.0 15.6 21.5 1985: I 793.3 755.8 792.6 805.8 360.7 316.6 349.6 355.6 70.5 69.9 76.8 77.2 55.1 59.3 53.9 56.0 306.9 310.0 -312.2 317.0 955.4 970.6 990.1 1,023.4 333.7 340.9 360.9 380.9 374.2 377.2 384.1 385.9 95.7 98.3 100.2 101.6 127.6 130.9 129.8 133.9 24.4 22.3 15.1 21.1 800.0 805.9 350.3 355,5 71.2 72.6 52.7 50.6 325.8 327.2 1,001.5 l,0<fc.7 355.7 367.1 389.3 394.4 103.5 106.9 135.0 137.9 18.0 36.4 n m IV n m rv n ni IV 1986: I r n Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 34 .0 .2 .2 .0 .6 .1 -1.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 -154.0 163.9 -171.9 -190.1 -162.2 -214.8 197.5 -217.6 -201.6 236.9 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Industrial reduction (1977=1 X); seasonal y adjusted Period 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 p United States Canada 110.7 108.6 111.0 103.1 109.2 121.8 124.5 109.8 108.1 109.0 97.4 102.9 Japan France United States ' 107 109.6 103.9 107.1 108.4 100 96 98 101 103 108 217.4 246.8 272.4 289.1 298.4 311.1 322.2 Germany Italy 108.7 114.7 112.1 113.7 107 107 112.0 116.8 118.9 120.1 120.6 124.7 138.4 144.8 106 103 101 102 105 106 107 105 102 103 106 112 Consumer prices (1967=100) United Kingdom Canada Germany Italy United Kingdom Japan France 221.0 243.5 273.9 303.5 321.0 335.0 348.3 261.3 259.1 282.3 296.2 304.1 309.7 316.6 323.0 294.2 332.7 373.1 407.9 439.5 465.1 166.9 175.8 186.9 196.8 203.3 208.2 212.7 328.5 398.0 472.4 549.4 631.8 698.8 764.7 359.0 423.6 473.9 514.7 538.3 565.1 599.4 1985: July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 124.1 125.2 125.1 124.4 125.4 126.4 118.1 118.1 118.0 119.1 120.1 120.0 147.2 145.5 144.5 144.8 144.2 144.6 108 108 105 107 109 104 116 112 112 116 116 110 107.3 105.8 110.6 106.9 110.9 106.6 108 108 109 108 110 107 322.8 323.5 324.5 325.5 326.6 327.4 349.5 350.1 350.5 351.7 353.1 354.7 323.8 320.7 323.8 328.4 325.0 325.2 468.2 468.7 469.2 470.6 471.5 472.1 212.9 212.2 212.6 212.9 213.3 213.5 766.7 768.2 771.3 780.6 786.1 791.6 603.5 605.1 604.8 605.8 607.9 608.7 1986: Jan Feb Mar 126.7 125.6 124.4 ' 125.3 r 124.6 ' 124.2 124.1 120.0 121.0 117.2 120.8 118.4 144.6 145.2 104 105 105 109 113 113 112 113 108.0 111.0 114.5 116.0 108 110 109 111 328.4 327.5 326.0 325.3 326.3 327.9 328.0 356.3 357.7 358.5 359.1 360.7 361.3 363.9 325.8 324.4 323.5 324.7 326.9 325.2 472.6 471.7 472.9 474.7 475.6 477.0 213.8 213.3 212.8 212.6 212.6 212.9 211.9 795.6 801.2 804.4 806.8 809.9 813.1 813.1 610.0 612.2 613.0 619.0 620.1 619.8 618.0 Apr May June p July" 1 144.5 144.6 Data relate to all urban consumers. Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and International Trade Administration). U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars; monthly data for statistical month, not seasonally adjusted*] Merc landise expo t s 1 Total foreign exports Total 2 Food, beverages, and tobacco Crude materials and fuels Mercha idise trade Balance Merc landise imports Domestic exports Ger eral import Manu factured goods Total z Food, beverages, and tobacco Crude materials and fuels 3 Manu factured goods Total (c.i.f. value) Exports Exports Exports less imports (customs value) less imports (f.a.s.) less imports (c.i.f.) -2,430 -2,590 -2,300 -2,020 -3,265 -3,530 -3,364 -3,030 I .a.s. valu e Monthly average: 1977 1978 1979 1980 10,103 11,973 15,155 18,386 9,919 11,762 14,886 18,043 1,330 1,717 2,049 2,534 1,548 1,746 2,352 2,810 6,679 7,873 9,716 11,991 12,533 14,563 17,455 20,406 1,186 1,312 1,478 1,546 4,463 6,379 4,325 5,949 7,831 8,360 9,352 10,427 13,368 15,504 18,519 21,415 Customs value 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 19,473 17,683 16,707 18,155 17,762 19,075 17,256 16,326 17,670 17,244 2,767 2,248 2,248 2,276 1,852 2,752 2,793 2,463 2,624 2,362 12,857 11,643 11,034 11,929 12,115 21,748 20,329 21,504 27,144 28,773 1,529 1,485 1,568 1,802 1,865 7,739 6,200 5,670 6,063 5,415 11,873 12,002 13,621 18,460 20,565 22,779 -2,275 21,240 -2,647 22,490 -4,797 28,431 -8,988 30,136 -11,011 -3,306 -3,558 -5,783 -10,276 -12,373 1985: June* July' Aug* Sept* Oct* Nov* Dec* 18,012 16,727 16,584 17,034 17,618 17,721 16,994 17,433 16.172 16,106 16,543 17,122 17,227 16,479 1,614 1,604 1,783 1,709 1,836 2,128 1,907 2,122 2,033 2,258 2,115 2,285 2,559 2,459 12,759 11,556 11,233 11,700 12,102 11,688 11,221 30,136 27,000 26,247 31,349 28,429 30,010 30,728 1,912 1,641 1,719 1,903 1,598 1,865 2,138 6,054 5,085 4,851 5,562 5,656 5,657 6,011 21,268 19,286 18,916 22,887 20,271 21,557 21,654 31,596 28,312 27,512 32,860 29,695 31,371 32,141 -12,124 10,274 -9,663 — 14,315 -10,811 -12,290 -13,734 - 13,584 11,585 - 10,927 -15,826 -12,077 -13,651 -15,146 1986: Jan* Feb* Mar* Apr*.... May* June** 17,006 17,735 18,913 17,965 17,431 19,070 16,501 17,164 18,349 17,376 16,691 16,427 1,797 1,689 1,706 1,475 1,395 1,438 2,467 2,367 2,349 2,436 2,228 1,776 11,393 12,182 13,325 12,615 12,274 12,298 32,005 28,895 31,972 28,762 30,272 31,764 2,215 1,908 2,100 2,018 2,329 1,886 6,234 4,741 4,284 3,176 3,659 4,163 22,477 21,289 24,261 22,226 23,001 23,971 33,465 30,225 33,435 30,036 31,638 33,240 14,999 -11,161 -13,059 - 10,797 -12,842 12,694 16,459 -12,491 -14,522 -12,071 -14,208 — 14,170 1 Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginning January 1978. 2 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. 3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. NOTE.—Imports on c.i.f. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods. Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Islands exports are reflected in the figures for domestic and foreign exports combined and trade bal- 'Beginning with data released in March 1986, the Bureau of the Census no longer publishes these data on a seasonally adjusted basis. For further information and for details regarding revised statistical month and monthly carryover data, see Bureau of the Census release FT 900. "June foreign exports (not shown separately) includes $2,050 million of nonmonetary gold bullion. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the first quarter of 1986 the current account deficit was $33.7 billion, unchanged from its fourth quarter level. The merchandise trade deficit fell to $36.6 billion from $37.4 billion in the fourth quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 1978 1986 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits ( + }, debits ( —)] Merchandise 1 In vestment inconie 3 Net travel and transportation receipts Period Exports Imports Receipts Payments Net -1,778 -2,935 -997 -2,237 -1,183 144 -274 -992 -369 -4,227 -1,827 -8,593 -2,917 — 11,128 Other services, net3 Balance on goods and services l Remittances, pensions, and other unilateral transfers ' Balance on current account -991 -6,128 5,138 6,214 1,873 9,466 -7,593 7,793 13,764 -7,425 6,339 8,699 -9,131 -214 -8,917 8,829 -37,123 -9,481 -46,604 9,711 -94,308 -12,157 - 106,466 9,881 10,603 - 102,694 -14,983 -117,677 184,473 224,269 237,085 211,198 201,820 219,900 214,424 — 212,009 -249,749 -265,063 -247,642 — 268,900 -332,422 — 338,863 -27,536 -25,480 -27,978 -36,444 -67,080 112,522 -124,439 64,132 72,506 86,411 83,549 77,251 86,221 89,991 -32,960 -42,120 -52,329 -54,883 -52,410 -67,469 -64,803 31,172 30,386 34,082 28,666 24,841 18,752 25,188 49,642 49,216 50,351 52,611 -59,476 -64,798 — 70,740 -73,886 -9,834 -15,582 -20,389 -21,275 18,077 18,732 20,684 19,758 -12,228 -12,807 -13,536 -13,839 5,849 5,925 7,148 5,919 492 32 -131 -762 -588 -916 -1,226 -1,497 2,238 2,486 2,436 2,552 -1,843 -8,055 -12,162 -15,063 -1,752 -2,021 -2,375 -3,333 -3,595 -10,076 -14,537 -18,396 53,614 54,590 55,691 56,005 -79,415 -83,684 — 84,144 -85,179 25,801 -29,094 -28,453 -29,174 22,860 21,104 21,396 20,861 — 15,446 -17,208 -17,991 -16,823 7,414 3,896 3,405 4,038 -281 -615 -234 -696 -1,834 -2,052 -2,332 -2,375 2,630 2,471 2,448 2,333 -17,872 -25,394 -25,166 -25,874 -2,368 -2,439 -3,107 -4,243 -20,240 -27,833 -28,273 -30,117 n in IV 55,324 53,875 52,498 52,727 -80,369 -84,242 -84,173 -90,079 -25,045 -30,367 -31,675 -37,352 18,726 22,253 24,502 24,509 -16,507 -16,804 -16,240 -15,254 2,219 5,449 8,262 9,255 -246 -729 -619 -1,322 -2,202 -2,864 -3,031 -3,031 2,442 2,552 2,609 2,999 -22,832 -25,959 -24,454 -29,451 -3,280 -3,458 -4,001 -4,244 -26,112 -29,417 -28,455 -33,695 1986: I" 53,548 -90,133 -36,585 24,241 -17,421 6,820 -945 -2,586 2,659 -30,637 -3,031 -33,668 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1983: I n m IV 1984: I n m IV 1985: I 1 Excludes military grants. Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. 2 3 36 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks decreased $7.8 billion in the first quarter compared to an increase of $8.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 1985. Liabilities to foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $8.6 billion in the first quarter compared to an increase of $20.4 billion in the fourth quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* JJILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 60 60 CHANGE IN FOREIGN ASSETS IN THE U.S..NET 40 40 20 20 -20 CHANGE IN U.S. ASSETS ABROAD,NET V -20 -40 -40 -60 I I I I 1979 1978 1980 -60 I I 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] U.S. assets abroad, net [ ncrease/capits 1 outflow ( — ) Period U.S. Total 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 official reserve assets 1 2 -64,331 -86,118 -111,031 -121,273 -50,022 -23,639 -32,436 -1,133 8,155 -5,175 4,965 -1,196 3,131 -3,858 -23,691 -523 -8,621 -17,186 -787 16 529 -953 in IV -3,571 -20,171 16,443 -16,338 1985: I II Ill IV 1986: I" 1983: I II Ill IV 1984: I II 1 Other U.S. Government assets Foreign assets in the 1 J.S., net [increase /capital inflov" ( + ) ] 2 U.S. private assets Total Other foreign assets Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) 38,752 58,112 83,322 94,078 85,496 102,767 127,106 -13,665 15,497 4,960 3,593 5,968 3,037 -1,324 52,416 42,615 78,362 90,486 79,527 99,730 128,430 -1,134 1,263 -1,171 1,436 21,770 724 7,979 -14,797 16,200 15,756 19,531 34,009 38 1,591 -2,662 7,002 16,162 14,165 22,194 27,007 11,086 -5,157 3,626 1,573 -657 -566 -799 -1,110 2,029 -1,386 1,388 -717 -885 -18,220 18,630 -14,512 22,251 41,963 2,668 35,885 -2,947 -157 765 6,906 25,198 42,120 3,433 28,979 -510 -2,793 -5,867 -23,266 -233 -356 -121 -3,148 -807 1,055 -422 -540 530 -1,382 -5,324 -19,579 14,247 25,358 35,665 51,837 -11,066 8,486 2,577 -1,322 25,313 16,872 33,088 53,158 -8,677 -115 -146 -8,416 39,484 2,510 36,974 1,139 1,152 1,093 Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy U S official reserve assets, netl (unadjusted, end of period) 18,956 26,756 30,074 33,958 33,747 34,934 43,186 25,431 24,982 20,276 36,325 11,130 27,338 23,006 59,453 -3,746 -72,802 5,162 -100,758 -5,097 6,131 — 110,177 -5,005 -43,821 5,523 -14,986 25,754 -2,824 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDRs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the IMF. 2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. Foreign official assets Statistical discrepancy Allocations of special drawing rights (SDKs) 3,417 34,261 33,876 33,066 33,747 1,560 6,040 9,162 10,570 940 -962 3,561 3,577 34,975 34,547 34,306 34,934 12,375 6,852 -1,343 5,125 1,094 1,174 -3,687 3,771 35,493 36,088 38,295 43,186 1,535 44,919 2,861 88 -176 -3,155 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets Consumer Installment Credit Bank Loans and Securities, and Reserves Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: p Preliminary. r Revised. c Corrected. ... Not available (also, not applicable). NSA not seasonally adjusted. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Price $2.50 (single copy) ($3.13 foreign). Subscription price: $27.00 per year; $33.75 for foreign mailing. 38 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1986 0—63-189