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97th Congress, 2d Session
Economic Indicators
AUGUST 1982
Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the
Council of Economic Advisers
UNITED STATES
NMENT PRINTING
WASHINGTON : 1982
"
Si
1gg2
Mo.
JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
HENRY S. REUSS, Wisconsin, Chairman
ROGER W. JEPSEN, Iowa, Vice Chairman
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
RICHARD BOLLING (Missouri)
LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana)
GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana)
PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland)
FREDERICK W. RICHMOND (New York)
CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio)
MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts)
JOHN H. ROUSSELOT (California)
CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio)
SENATE
WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)
JAMES ABDNOR (South Dakota)
STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho)
PAULA HAWKINS (Florida)
MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia)
LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas)
WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin)
EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)
PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland)
JAMES K. GALBRAITH, Executive Director
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
MURRAY L. WEIDENBAUM, Chairman
WILLIAM A. NISKANEN
[PUBLIC LAW 120—S!ST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the
Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that
a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant
at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two
copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the
Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for
distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies
printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.
Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.
Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.75 a single copy
($3.45 foreign), or by subscription at $21.00 per year ($26.25 for foreign
mailing) from:
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GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402
11
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
According to revised estimates for the second quarter of 1982, gross national product rose $45.7 billion or 6.2
percent, both at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 1.3 percent, annual rate, and the
implicit price deflator rose at a 4.9 percent annual rate.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
(RATIO SCALE)
3,200
3,200
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
3,000
3,000
2,800
2,800
2,600
2,600
GNP
. IN CURRENT DOLLARS.
2,400
2,400
2,200
2,200
2,000
2,000
1,800
1,800
1,600
1,600
-V
1,400
GNP
IN 1972 DOLLARS
1,200
1,200
1975
1974
1976
1979
1978
1977
1980
1982
1981
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Exports ar d imports of goods and
services
Goveniment purchiises of
goo ds and serv ces
Personal
consumption
expenditures
Gross
private
domestic
investment
672.2
737.1
812.0
888.1
976.4
1,084.3
1,204.4
1,346.5
1,507.2
1,667.2
1,843.2
166.4
4.1
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1,077.6
1,185.9
1,326.4
1,434.2
1,549.2
1,718.0
1,918.3
2,163.9
2,417.8
2,633.1
2,937.7
195.0
229.8
228.7
206.1
257.9
324.1
386.6
423.0
402.3
471.5
.7
14.2
13.4
26.8
13.8
-4.0
-1.1
13.2
25.2
26.1
68.8
77.5
109.6
146.2
154.9
170.9
182.7
218.7
281.4
339.2
367.3
64.7
76.7
95.4
132.8
128.1
157.1
186.7
219.8
268.1
314.0
341.3
234.9
253.1
270.4
304.1
339.9
362.1
393.8
431.9
474.4
538.4
596.9
96.2
101.7
102.0
111.0
122.7
129.2
143.4
153.6
168.3
197.2
228.9
70.2
73.1
72.8
77.0
83.0
86.0
92.8
100.3
111.8
131.4
153.7
26.0
28.5
29.1
33.9
39.7
43.2
50.6
53.3
56.5
65.8
75.2
138.7
151.4
168.5
193.1
217.2
232.9
250.4
278.3
306.0
341.2
368.0
1,070.0
1,175.7
1,307.9
1,420.1
1,556.1
1,706.2
1,895.3
2,137.4
2,403.5
2,643.1
2,917.3
1980: HI
IV
2,643.7
2,739.4
1,682.0
1,745.8
384.1
410.3
39.0
23.5
337.2
346.7
298.2
323.2
538.5
559.8
193.3
207.0
130.5
138.1
62.8
68.9
345.2
352.8
2,664.8
2,757.1
1981: I
n
m
2,864.9
2,901.8
2,980.9
3,003.2
1,799.9
1,819.4
1,868.8
1,884.5
455.7
475.5
486.0
468.9
31.2
23.7
25.9
23.5
365.4
368.9
367.2
367.9
334.2
345.1
341.3
344.4
578.1
583.2
600.2
626.3
217.0
218.2
230.0
250.5
143.1
150.5
154.4
166.9
73.9
67.7
75.7
83.6
361.1
365.0
370.1
375.7
2,852.7
2,877.2
2,949.1
2,989.9
1982: I
II"
2,995.5
3,041.2
1,919.4
1,945.8
414.8
429.7
31.3
35.1
359.9
365.3
328.6
330.2
630.1
630.6
249.7
244.5
166.2
176.1
83.5
68.5
380.4
386.0
3,031.1
3,058.5
Period
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
IV
Gross
national
product
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Federal
Net
exports
Exports
Imports
Total
National
defense
Nondefense
State and
local
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS
[Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gross
national
product
Period
1971
1972
1,122.4
Personal
consumption
expenditures
rh . °
.
dential
fixed
Residential fixed
Exports
Imports
Total r
Federal
State and
local
762.8
779.4
823.1
864.3
903.2
927.6
930.5
947.6
53.7
63.8
62.3
48.2
42.2
51.2
60.7
62.4
59.1
47.2
44.9
8.1
10.2
17.2
11.6
-6.7
7.8
13.3
16.0
7.3
-5.0
9.0
1.6
.7
15.5
27.8
32.2
25.4
22.0
24.0
37.2
50.6
42.0
71.0
77.5
97.3
108.5
103.5
110.1
112.9
126.7
146.2
159.2
158.5
69.3
76.7
81.8
80.7
71.4
84.7
90.9
102.7
109.0
108.6
116.4
253.1
253.3
260.3
265.2
265.2
269.2
274.6
278.3
284.6
287.1
103.7
101.7
95.9
96.6
97.4
96.8
100.4
100.3
102.1
106.5
110.4
146.4
151.4
157.4
163.6
167.8
168.4
168.8
174.3
176.2
178.1
176.7
1,114.3
1,175.3
1,237.1
1,234.7
1,238.4
1,290.4
1,356.4
1,422.6
1,472.2
1,479.0
1,493.7
-8.5
-6.2
53.1
45.6
155.9
155.1
102.8
109.6
283.4
283.2
105.5
104.8
177.9
178.4
1,472.4
1,485.7
48.2
44.2
39.2
36.5
159.3
159.7
157.8
156.9
111.1
115.5
118.7
120.4
286.8
283.9
286.4
291.3
107.9
107.0
110.7
116.0
179.0
176.9
175.7
175.3
1,505.4
1,490.1
1,493.9
1,485.3
36.9
35.7
151.7
154.0
114.7
118.3
289.2
284.7
114.4
109.8
174.9
174.9
1,486.1
1,480.6
112.2
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1980: III
IV
1,463.8
1,479.4
928.0
941.0
163.8
166.4
44.0
49.5
1981: I
n
m
1,507.8
1,502.2
1,510.4
1,490.1
951.1
944.6
951.4
943.4
169.7
170.1
173.9
174.2
49.6
47.3
42.9
39.9
1982: I p
1,470.7
1,475.3
949.1
953.8
172.0
166.4
38.9
39.9
n.
business
inventories
Final
Net
exports
121.0
138.1
135.7
119.3
125.6
140.3
158.3
169.9
166.1
172.0
696.8
737.1
767.9
1,185.9
1,254.3
1,246.3
1,231.6
1,298.2
1,369.7
1,438.6
1,479.4
1,474.0
1,502.6
IV
Governm ?nt purchases of goods
and services
E) ports of goo ds
and services
3ross private
dom estic investnlent
2.4
12.1
16.5
4.8
-15.4
-5.3
250.1
IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
[1972 = 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]
Period
Gross
national
product
Personal c Hisumption
expenc itures
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable goods
Gross priva ;e domestic
inves ment
Services
dential
fixed
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
96.01
100.00
105.75
115.08
125.79
132.34
140.05
150.42
163.42
178.64
195.51
96.5
100.0
105.7
116.4
125.3
131.7
139.3
149.1
162.5
179.2
194.5
99.0
100.0
101.7
108.2
117.3
123.9
129.2
136.4
145.0
156.3
167.5
96.6
100.0
108.5
123.4
132.5
137.2
143.6
153.4
169.9
188.4
202.7
95.6
100.0
104.7
113.0
121.6
129.6
139.3
150.0
162.3
178.8
196.3
96.2
100.0
103.8
115.4
132.2
138.6
146.3
157.2
170.8
186.1
201.3
1980: HI
IV
180.60
185.16
181.2
185.5
158.0
161.1
190.5
195.1
180.9
185.4
1981: I
190.01
193.17
197.36
201.55
189.2
192.6
196.4
199.8
163.0
166.2
169.7
171.3
199.3
201.7
204.2
205.6
203.68
206.14
202.2
204.0
173.0
174.0
206.8
207.1
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
n
in
IV
1982: I
n»
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Residential fixed
Exports aiid imports
of goods aiid services
Exports
Imports
Governmen , purchases
of goods aiid services
Federal
State and
local
93.3
100.0
116.7
164.6
179.6
185.6
205.5
214.1
246.1
289.3
293.1
92.7
100.0
94.7
100.0
140.7
158.0
178.3
200.5
218.5
233.6
97.0
100.0
112.7
134.8
149.6
155.3
161.9
172.6
192.5
213.1
231.8
106.3
114.9
126.0
133.5
142.8
153.1
164.8
185.2
207.4
107.0
118.0
129.4
138.3
148.4
159.7
173.7
191.6
208.2
187.9
190.8
221.8
223.4
216.3
223.5
290.1
294.9
183.3
197.5
194.0
197.8
189.6
193.4
198.6
203.6
194.5
200.7
203.0
206.8
229.0
231.7
235.8
239.2
229.3
230.9
232.6
234.5
300.7
298.7
287.7
286.1
201.2
204.0
207.8
216.0
201.7
206.3
210.7
214.3
207.4
210.7
207.6
211.5
240.5
238.3
237.3
237.2
286.4
279.1
218.3
222.7
217.5
220.8
94.8
100.0
109.1
120.3
131.0
CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES
[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Ore ss national pr iduct
Period
Current
dollars
5.2
8.6
10.1
11.8
8.1
8.0
10.9
11.7
12.8
11.7
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1980: EH
IV
1981: I
8.9
11.6
11.4
15.3
19.6
5.3
11.4
3.0
-1.0
6.2
n
m
IV
1982: I F
n
Constant
(1972)
dollars
-0.2
3.4
5.7
5.8
-.6
-1.2
5.4
5.5
5.0
2.8
4.
1.9
1.6
4.3
7.9
1.5
2.2
-5.3
5.1
1.3
Implicit
price
deflator
Personal consumption e spenditures
Chain price
index
5.4
5.0
4.2
5.8
8.8
9.3
5.2
5.8
7.4
8.6
9.3
9.4
9.6
10.5
10.9
6.8
9.0
8.8
4.3
4.9
Fixedweighted
price index
(1972
weights)
5.3
4.9
4.1
6.0
9.1
9.2
5.7
6.1
7.6
8.9
9.0
9.4
9.7
11.0
9.3
8.2
9.2
8.4
5.0
4.7
NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter.
6.9
8.1
9.6
10.2
9.4
9.9
11.0
11.1
11.8
11.9
10.6
10.6
15.6
16.1
13.0
4.4
11.3
3.4
7.6
5.6
5.2
4.8
4.0
6.0
9.4
9.1
5.8
6.3
7.8
9.5
9.9
9.6
9.4
11.2
10.0
8.4
8.9
8.5
4.8
4.2
Implicit
price
deflator
Constant
(1972)
dollars
Current
dollars
Chain price
index
2.2
3.7
5.8
4.2
-.7
2.2
5.6
5.0
4.5
2.7
.3
1.8
4.6
4.3
3.7
5.7
10.1
7.6
5.1
5.8
7.0
9.0
10.3
8.6
5.4
5.7
9.6
9.8
4.4
-2.7
2.9
-3.3
8.3
7.3
8.2
7.0
2.5
2.0
5.0
3.6
Fixedweighted
price index
(1972
weights)
4.6
4.3
4.5
4.2
3.5
6.1
10.4
7.8
5.3
6.2
7.4
9.7
11.2
9.3
3.6
6.1
10.4
7.7
5.3
6.0
7.3
9.3
10.7
9.1
9.8
10.0
10.3
7.4
8.0
7.2
5.2
3.7
9.8
10.1
10.9
7.7
7.6
7.1
4.8
3.3
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND
PROFITS
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Current-dollar cc st and profit per unit of output (dollars) 1
Gross ( omestic
product of nonfinancial
corporate business
(billions c f dollars)
Period
Current
dollars
1972
dollars
1970
1971
1972
1973
563.7
609.9
678.0
759.4
599.6
626.8
678.0
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1980: m
IV
1981: I
818.9
708.2
694.2
745.5
795.8
846.3
n
ni
IV
1982: I
IK
Total
cost and
profit 2
Capital
consumption
allowances
with
capital
consumption
adjustment
Indirect
business
taxes 3
881.3
0.940
.973
1.000
1.038
1.156
1.282
1.343
1.418
1.508
1.617
1.787
1.966
0.087
.091
.092
.093
.112
.137
.141
.145
.155
.171
.200
.222
0.106
.113
.113
.114
.127
.140
.141
.141
.144
.149
.173
.202
1,543.6
1,606.5
852.5
867.4
1.811
1,852
.206
.208
.178
.186
1,683.3
1,715.0
1,763.6
1,767.2
883.0
884.2
887.5
870.4
1.906
1.940
1.987
2.030
.211
.218
.224
.236
.196
.202
.203
.208
1,756.6
1,771.1
858.8
856.6
2.045
2.068
.242
.247
.205
.212
890.0
1,001.3
1,128.4
1,276.2
1,416.8
1,537.7
1,732.3
731.9
876.1
860.3
J
Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinanciai corporate business in 1972 dollars.
'8.
3
This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinanciai corporate business with
the decimal point shifted two places to the left.
3
Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies.
Compensation of
employees
0.631
.641
.659
.692
.786
.837
.878
.928
.998
1.094
1.211
1.305
1.224
1.245
1.267
1.289
1.315
1.349
1.376
1.389
4
Corporate profits with inventory
valuation iind capital cc nsumption
adjustments
Net
interest
Total
0.028
.029
.028
.031
.042
.044
.040
.040
.044
.050
.061
.071
.061
.066
.062
.069
.074
.078
.082
.085
0.088
.099
.107
.107
.090
.124
.144
.163
.168
.154
.143
.165
.143
.147
.170
.161
.171
.159
.140
.134
Profits
tax
liability
0.045
.047
.049
.055
.059
.059
.071
.075
.079
.079
.075
.072
.075
.078
.081
.069
.074
.063
.045
.042
Profits
after tax 4
per hour
of all
employees (1972
dollars)
0.043
7.126
.052
.058
.053
.030
.065
.073
.088
.089
.075
.068
.093
.068
.069
.089
.091
.097
.096
.095
.092
7.466
7.688
7.890
Compensation per
hour of
all
employees
(dollars)
7.880
4.498
4.788
5.067
5.457
5.989
6.596
8.131
8.315
7.138
7.716
7.621
8.396
8.377
8.411
9.198
8.385
8.536
10.153
11.139
8.411
10.292
10.521
8.453
8.551
8.543
8.550
8.500
8.510
8.558
10.833
11.015
11.243
11.470
11.709
11.891
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
NOTE.—Series revised for output per hour and compensation per hour of all employees.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor
(Bureau of Labor Statistics).
NATIONAL INCOME
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
National
income
Compensation of
employees 1
Proprietors' income with
inventory v iluation and
capital eo isumption
adjust ments
Nonfarm
Farm
1980:
1981:
HI
rv
I
II
rn
IV
1982:
1
I
n"
Profits w ith inventory valuation
adjustme nt and withou t capital
consiimption adjust ment
1,036.3
1,152.1
1,301.1
1,458.1
1,598.6
1,767.6
20.2
21.0
22.6
23.5
23.0
23.5
24.8
26.6
27.9
32.9
33.9
96.6
108.3
94.9
110.5
138.1
167.3
192.4
194.8
181.6
190.6
2,122.3
2,199.2
1,604.9
1,662.8
20.3
19.2
95.1
98.8
33.8
34.2
177.8
181.2
200.4
2,293.7
2,324.4
2,387.3
2,404.5
1,718.0
1,750.0
1,789.1
1,813.4
21.6
22.5
27.1
24.6
101.8
101.2
100.4
99.5
34.4
34.0
33.6
33.6
200.3
217.6
185.1
193.1
183.9
202.6
2,396.9
2,425.1
1,830.8
1,850.6
17.8
18.0
98.6
100.1
33.9
34.2
157.1
154.9
652.2
718.0
801.3
877.5
931.4
54.4
Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.)
83.2
Inventory
valuation
adjustment
Profits
Total
58.1
61.0
62.2
65.4
75.0
84.8
92.2
100.2
96.9
100.7
963.6
1,086.2
1,160.7
1,239.4
1,379.2
1,550.5
1,760.3
1,966.7
2,117.1
2,352.5
Capital
consump-
Total
15.0
18.7
32.8
26.5
24.6
19.1
19.1
26.3
31.9
19.4
24.0
871.5
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
Corporate profits with inv sntory valuatio n and capital consumption
adjustments
Rental
income of
persons
with
capital
consumption
adjustment
Net
interest
adjustment
86.6
100.6
125.6
136.7
132.1
166.3
194.7
229.1
252.7
242.4
232.1
-4.6
-6.6
-20.0
-40.0
-11.6
-14.7
-16.2
-24.0
-43.1
-43.0
-24.6
1.3
2.7
2.7
-1.8
-10.1
-13.5
-11.3
-12.7
-14.8
-17.8
-16.8
46.5
51.2
60.2
76.1
84.5
87.2
102.5
121.7
153.8
187.7
235.7
238.1
245.9
-41.1
-45.5
-19.3
-19.2
190.4
203.0
210.3
199.4
253.1
225.4
233.3
216.5
-35.5
-22.8
-23.0
-17.1
-17.3
-17.5
-17.1
-15.5
217.6
231.6
244.0
249.5
167.2
160.8
171.6
168.7
-4.4
-7.8
-10.1
-5.9
258.7
267.4
82.0
94.0
105.6
96.7
120.6
151.6
178.5
205.1
209.6
199.4
207.5
197.0
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
[Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Nondura )le goods
Durable goods
Total
Period
1982:
1
Motor
vehicles
and parts
Total
nondurable
goodsl
278.8
300.6
333.4
373.4
407.3
441.7
478.8
528.2
600.0
670.4
734.5
144.2
154.9
172.1
193.7
213.6
230.6
249.8
275.9
976.4
1,084.3
1,204.4
1,346.5
1,507.2
1,667.2
1,843.2
96.6
89.7
98.6
37.2
41.7
47.1
50.6
53.5
59.1
65.7
72.8
81.8
86.3
93.4
m
IV
1,682.0
1,745.8
212.7
224.7
88.1
93.7
86.0
90.4
n
in
I
IV
1,799.9
1,819.4
1,868.8
1,884.5
236.9
230.4
241.2
229.6
102.1
94.2
104.0
93.9
I
IP
1,919.4
1,945.8
237.9
240.2
103.2
102.9
672.2
737.1
812.0
888.1
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981:
Total
durable
goodsl
Furniture
and
household
equipment
97.2
111.1
123.3
121.5
132.2
156.8
178.2
200.2
213.4
214.3
234.6
1971
1972
1973
1980:
personal
consumption
expenditures
Total includes other iterns not shown sepa rateiy.
45.4
52.4
57.1
50.4
55.8
72.6
84.8
95.7
Food
Clothing
and shoes
50.6
55.4
61.4
64.8
Gasoline
and oil
23.9
25.4
28.6
Services
Retail sal es of new
passeng er cars
(millions of units)
Domestics
Imports
1.6
1.6
874.1
8.7
9.3
9.6
7.4
7.0
8.5
9.0
9.2
8.2
6.6
6.2
1.8
1.4
1.6
1.5
2.1
2.0
2.3
2.4
2.3
296.2
325.3
355.2
393.2
437.0
485.7
547.4
343.7
375.3
69.6
75.3
82.6
92.4
99.1
104.7
114.6
36.6
40.4
44.0
48.1
51.2
66.6
87.0
96.8
673.7
700.5
346.4
358.0
104.8
108.9
87.0
92.8
795.6
820.6
6.4
6.7
2.3
2.5
93.1
93.3
93.8
93.3
720.6
729.6
741.3
746.5
368.8
378.0
382.3
112.3
114.0
115.9
116.0
95.2
96.7
97.7
97.5
842.4
859.4
886.3
908.3
7.2
5.7
6.8
5.2
2.6
2.3
2.2
2.2
91.0
93.1
749.1
755.0
387.9
394.7
117.5
118.6
95.3
91.4
932.4
950.6
5.8
5.5
2.2
2.0
311.6
372.1
618.0
693.7
782.5
Sour( e: Department o Commerce, Bur eau of Economic Analysis.
SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income rose $25.1 billion (annual rate) in July following a rise of $9.8 billion in June. Wages and salaries
rose $7.0 billion in July; they had risen $2.1 billion in June. Transfer payments rose $12.8 billion in July, compared
with $2.2 billion in June; a cost-of-living increase in social security benefits accounted for $10.9 billion of the July
rise.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
2,800
2,800
2,400
2,400
2,000
2,000
1,600
1,600
1,400
1,400
1,200
1,200
1,000
1,000
WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS
800
800
600
OTHER INCOME
600
_„.,..„
400
400
„......»••""""
TRANSFER
PAYMENTS
200
200
160
160
120
120
1974
1975
1979
1978
1976
1980
1982
*SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
Total
personal
income
age and
disbursements l
Proprietor ' income 3
f\ i. i k
income 1 2
Farm
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1,168.6
1,265.0
1,391.2
1,540.4
1,732.7
1,951.2
2,160.4
2,415.8
765.7
806.4
889.9
983.2
1,106.3
1,237.6
1,356.1
1,493.9
55.8
64.5
75.9
89.4
102.5
114.9
127.2
140.4
26.5
24.6
19.1
19.1
26.3
31.9
19.4
24.0
1981: July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
2,436.3
2,459.6
2,478.6
2,487.2
2,499.0
2,497.6
1,501.3
1,513.6
1,522.1
1,528.9
1,534.2
1,530.5
140.9
142.2
143.5
144.7
145.8
146.9
26.1
28.2
27.2
26.3
24.7
22.8
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June p.
July"
2,499.1
2,513.8
2,518.6
2,535.8
2,557.4
2,567.3
2,592.3
1,535.7
1,546.6
1,542.6
1,546.6
1,560.4
1,562.5
1,569.6
148.0
149.1
150.2
151.3
152.5
153.6
154.6
19.9
17.3
16.3
17.2
18.3
18.5
18.1
1
The total of wage and salary disbursements and other iahor income differs from compensation of
employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of
wage accruals over wage disbursements.
Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workmen's
compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items.
3
\V"ith inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Nonfarm
62.2
65.4
75.0
84.8
92.2
100.2
96.9
100.7
100.5
100.4
100.3
99.0
100.1
99.5
98.6
98.4
98.8
99.3
100.3
100.6
101.4
Rental
income of4
persons
Personal
dividend
income
Personal
interest
income
23.5
23.0
23.5
24.8
26.6
27.9
32.9
33.9
29.1
29.9
36.5
39.6
45.3
50.8
55.9
62.5
112.4
123.2
132.5
152.8
179.4
218.7
263.4
329.0
33.4
33.4
33.9
33.6
33.6
33.6
63.6
64.2
64.7
65.0
65.2
65.4
65.6
65.9
65.9
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.6
332.1
340.0
346.9
349.7
351.1
352.1
33.7
33.9
34.0
34.1
34.2
34.3
34.5
355.5
359.8
363.8
368.0
372.0
376.0
379.9
Transfer
payments
141.2
178.3
194.3
207.9
223.8
250.3
297.2
336.3
344.1
343.9
346.5
347.1
351.5
353.6
352.4
353.8
357.5
363.9
365.1
367.3
380.0
4
Less:
Personal
contributions
for social
insurance
47.9
50.4
55.5
61.1
69.8
81.1
88.7
104.9
105.6
106.2
106.3
107.0
107.2
106.8
110.3
110.9
110.6
110.8
111.6
111.7
112.4
Nonfarm
personal
income 6
1,131.8
1,229.1
1,359.3
1,506.5
1,689.7
1,899.3
2,117.3
2,364.1
2,382.2
2,403.0
2,422.7
2,431.8
2,444.6
2,444.6
2,448.6
2,465.5
2,470.8
2,486.8
2,507.1
2,516.4
2,541.5
With capital consumption adjustment.
Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments.
Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income,
and agricultural net interest.
5
6
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME
Real per capita disposable income rose in the second quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
2,400
4,000
4,000
3,000
3,000
1982
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Period
Personal
income
Less:
Personal
tax and
nontax
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Equals:
Disposable
personal
income
Less:
Personal
outlays l
Equals:
Personal
saving
Per c apita
disposable personal
incc>me
Current
dollars
1972
dollars
1,065.2
1,168.6
1,265.0
1,391.2
1,540.4
1,732.7
1,951.2
2,160.4
2,415.8
150.7
170.2
168.9
196.8
226.4
258.7
301.0
336.3
386.7
914.5
998.3
1,096.1
1,194.4
1,314.0
1,474.0
1,650.2
1,824.1
2,029.1
Current
dollars
1972
dollars
Do lars
Billions of dol ars
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
Per capit i persona!
consulnption
expen litures
835.5
913.2
1,001.8
1,111.9
1,236.0
1,384.6
1,553.5
1,717.9
1,898.9
79.0
85.1
94.3
82.5
78.0
89.4
96.7
106.2
130.2
4,315
4,667
5,075
5,477
5,965
6,621
7,331
8,012
8,827
4,080
4,009
4,051
4,158
4,280
4,441
4,512
4,472
4,538
Percent
change in
real per
capita
disposable
Saving as
percent of
disposable
personal
Population
(thousands) 2
income
Per cent
3,831
4,152
4,521
4,972
5,468
6,048
6,695
7,323
8,018
3,623
3,566
3,609
3,774
3,924
4,057
4,121
4,087
4,123
5.7
-1.7
1.0
2.6
2.9
3.8
1.6
.9
1.5
8.6
8.5
8.6
6.9
5.9
6.1
5.9
5.8
6.4
211,939
213,898
215,981
218,086
220,289
222,629
225,106
227,654
229,872
Seas mally adju sted annual rates
1980: m
IV
2,185.3
2,260.0
339.7
357.1
1,845.5
1,902.9
1,732.5
1,797.6
113.1
105.3
8,095
8,325
4,466
4,487
7,378
7,638
4,071
4,117
3.9
1.9
6.1
5.5
227,978
228,579
1981: I
2,330.0
2,380.6
2,458.2
2,494.6
371.2
384.2
398.1
393.2
1,958.7
1,996.5
2,060.0
2,101.4
1,852.8
1,874.5
1,925.7
1,942.7
105.9
122.0
134.4
158.6
8,551
8,698
8,951
9,107
4,519
4,516
4,557
4,559
7,858
7,926
8,120
8,167
4,152
4,115
4,134
4,088
2.9
3
3.7
.2
5.4
6.1
6.5
7.5
229,053
229,539
230,145
230,751
1982: I
H"
2,510.5
2,553.5
393.4
399.0
2,117.1
2,154.5
1,977.9
2,005.1
139.1
149.4
9,155
9,298
4,527
4,558
8,300
8,397
4,104
4,116
-2.8
2.8
6.6
6.9
231,246
231,723
n
m
rv
1
Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net).
2
Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages
for the period.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).
FARM INCOME
In the fourth quarter of 1981, gross and net farm income each declined $2.7 billion (annual rate) from their third
quarter levels. Data are not yet available for 1982.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
1200
200
100
100
GROSS FARM INCOME
80
80
60
60
40
40
NET FARM INCOME
.-"••..
20
20
V
*
J
10
1973
1974
J
L_L
1975
I L
1977
1976
1978
1979
I 1980
I I
•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL SATES
SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
J
L
10
1981
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonrJly adjusted annual rates]
Income of farm ope rators from farmi ng
(irross farm incom 3
Period
Cas h marketing rece pts
Total '
Total
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1980: I
n
m
IV
1981:
I
n
ni
rv
Livestock and
products
Crops
inventory
changes 2
Production
expenses
Current
dollars
1967 dollars 3
98.0
101.0
101.9
108.6
127.3
151.3
150.6
166.8
92.4
88.9
95.4
96.2
112.5
131.7
139.5
143.5
41.3
43.1
46.3
47.6
58.8
68.6
67.8
68.5
51.1
45.8
49.0
48.6
53.7
63.1
71.7
75.0
-1.6
3.4
-2.4
1.0
1.1
5.6
-4.3
5.5
75.8
83.3
90.2
100.6
119.0
130.5
141.6
26.0
25.2
18.7
18.4
26.7
32.4
20.1
25.1
17.6
15.6
11.0
10.2
13.6
14.9
8.2
9.2
148.6
145.2
153.2
155.4
135.3
134.3
143.6
144.8
66.7
64.4
69.3
70.8
68.6
69.9
74.3
74.0
-1.4
-4.2
-6.0
5.6
125.7
128.7
132.0
135.4
22.9
16.5
21.2
20.0
9.5
6.8
8.5
7.8
161.8
164.7
171.5
168.8
142.5
142.3
146.7
142.5
67.9
69.4
71.0
65.7
74.6
72.9
75.7
76.8
2.5
5.3
7.2
7.0
139.0
141.0
143.2
143.2
22.8
23.7
28.3
25.6
8.6
8.8
10.2
9.1
'Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash
income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms.
2
Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average
prices during the year.
Net farni income
3
72.0
Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index {Department of Labor).
Source: Department of Agriculture, except as noted.
CORPORATE PROFITS
In the second quarter of 1982, according to preliminary estimates, corporate profits before tax fell $2.9 billion
(annual rate) while after-tax profits declined $0.9 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
320
320
280
120
80
40
40
1982
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Profits after ta X
Pr ofits (before t ax) with inve ntory valuat on adjustmen t '
Do mestic indust ries
Period
Nonfinancial
Total 2
Total
Financial
Total 3
Manufacturing
sale and
retail
trade
Profits
before tax
Tax
liability
Total
Dividends
Undistributed
profits
22.9
24.4
27.0
29.9
30.8
37.4
40.8
47.0
52.7
58.1
65.1
26.1
34.5
49.6
55.2
50.7
65.1
81.2
98.9
112.4
99.7
85.8
Inventory
valuation
adjustment
74.9
85.3
92.0
80.4
107.6
137.4
163.4
185.4
179.0
169.1
184.6
14.1
15.3
15.9
15.0
11.8
17.1
23.1
31.0
30.3
29.2
22.7
60.8
70.0
76.0
65.4
95.8
120.3
140.3
154.4
148.6
140.0
162.0
34.1
40.7
45.5
39.0
52.6
69.2
78.3
86.9
85.6
74.5
86.3
11.7
13.4
13.9
12.5
21.3
22.4
26.6
26.9
27.1
24.6
33.4
86.6
100.6
125.6
136.7
132.1
166.3
194.7
229.1
252.7
242.4
232.1
37.5
41.6
49.0
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
82.0
94.0
105.6
96.7
120.6
151.6
178.5
205.1
209.6
199.4
207.5
51.6
50.6
63.8
72.7
83.2
87.6
84.7
81.2
49.0
58.9
76.6
85.1
81.5
102.5
122.0
145.9
165.1
157.8
150.9
1980: HI
IV
197.0
200.4
167.5
175.5
27.2
29.4
140.3
146.1
70.0
78.1
24.4
27.3
238.1
245.9
82.2
87.8
155.9
158.1
58.7
59.6
97.3
98.5
1981: I
H
m
rv
217.6
202.6
210.3
199.4
193.8
181.7
189.3
173.7
26.8
22.7
20.8
20.4
167.0
159.0
168.5
153.3
90.3
88.9
92.2
73.7
33.0
32.1
33.0
35.7
253.1
225.4
233.3
216.5
91.5
79.2
82.4
71.6
161.6
146.2
150.8
144.9
61.5
64.0
66.8
68.1
100.1
82.2
84.0
76.9
-35.5
-22.8
23.0
-17.1
1982: I
II"
167.2
160.8
150.3
144.3
20.0
23.2
130.4
121.1
57.7
31.9
171.6
168.7
55.8
53.7
115.9
115.0
68.8
69.3
47.0
45.7
-4.4
-7.8
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
^ee p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.
2
3
Includes industries not shown separately.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
-4.6
-6.6
-20.0
-40.0
-11.6
-14.7
-16.2
-24.0
43.1
43.0
-24.6
-41.1
-45.5
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
According to revised estimates for the second quarter, business fixed investment declined $5.1 billion (annual rate)
from its first quarter level and residential investment outlays rose $1.8 billion. There was a $17.4 billion decrease
in inventories following a $35.6 billion decrease in the first quarter.
BILLIC >NS
OF DOLLAR:
BILLIONS OF DO LLARS
550
550
SEASONA LLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
/
GROSS PRIVA7 E DOMESTIC
INVEST
\rtENT ^*
r^~~^
y^
rs V.
S,
/
*/•
^\S
^
++ .-***
/~*
^
— BT*
.••^
—
NONRESIDENT AL
,^-*'
-FIXED INVESTW iNT-^^*
250
250
^
J-"'
l•— "•" *
^
>
*•**'
RESIDENT IAL
FIXED INVES TMENT
150
150
\
100
.-.—
••«•""""••....»»•*,,,
....
,..,.......,
-"•••...„..
„..»•
I
I
1974
I
~\
••'^••--...{
°*».tn
V.....X
-50
50
"...ill
••--..,,.
.«,„,»,#*
100
CHANGE IN Bll« INFS S
INVENT 1RIE S
50
0
».
'••• ;=.'
.*•"'"'
0
..,/
1 i 1
,
1
19 76
1975
1
1
i
1977
1
1
I
1
\,"f
!
1
19 80
1979
1978
I
19 81
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT C F COMMERCE
-50
1982
COUNCIL C F ECONOMIC ADVISER
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
I
II"
Nonfarm
0.7
471.5
.7
.7
1.3
1.0
1.1
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.9
2.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.9
3.0
3.2
-6.9
11.8
23.0
26.5
14.3
-10.0
20.5
6.4
9.6
15.2
16.0
-10.5
13.9
21.9
25.4
8.6
-5.7
15.0
384.1
410.3
307.8
317.5
109.5
112.6
198.2
204.9
97.6
110.5
93.5
105.4
1.0
2.0
3.0
3.1
-21.2
17.7
-15.4
-12.3
455.7
475.5
486.0
468.9
330.0
341.3
353.0
360.2
119.6
127.0
132.7
139.6
210.4
214.3
220.2
220.6
113.6
109.5
101.2
95.5
109.1
104.7
95.6
89.4
1.3
1.6
2.4
2.9
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
12.2
24.6
31.8
13.2
10.0
19.3
24.6
6.0
414.8
357.0
351.9
141.4
143.9
215.6
208.0
93.4
95.2
87.9
89.2
2.4
2.8
3.1
3.2
-35.6
-17.4
-36.0
-16.2
429.7
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Total
61.5
65.6
54.8
52.4
68.8
92.0
107.0
114.0
98.3
99.7
386.6
423.0
402.3
IV
Farm
structures
48.9
324.1
,
Nonfarm
structures
50.9
63.8
68.0
57.9
55.3
72.0
95.8
111.2
118.6
103.2
104.9
257.9
n
in
Total
67.4
76.9
92.3
100.7
102.3
115.3
140.8
170.2
191.9
198.6
216.4
206.1
1981: I
Structures
40.5
44.1
51.0
55.9
55.4
58.8
64.4
78.7
98.3
110.5
129.7
229.8
228.7
1980: m
IV
Total
Producers'
durable
107.9
121.0
143.3
156.6
157.7
174.1
205.2
248.9
290.2
309.2
346.1
166.4
195.0
1971
1982:
domestic
investment
Producers'
durable
Change iri business
mven •ones
Residential fix ed investment
Nonresic ential fixed inivestment
Period
7.7
10.2
18.5
14.1
EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT—NONFARM
BUSINESS
According to the Commerce Department April-May survey, nonfarm business spending for new plant and
equipment for the year 1982 is expected to be 2.2 percent above 1981. Spending in 1981 was 8.7 percent above
1980.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS Of DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
500
500
400
400
300
300
TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
200
40
40
30
30
1974
1975
1976
1979
1978
1980
1981
1982
J/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW.
COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC A.DVISERS
SOURCE; DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Plan t and equip ment
Period
Total
Plant
M amifacturin e
Equipment
Total
Starts of
plant and
Nonmanu facturing
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
Total
Mining
Transportation
Public
utilities
Trade
and
services *
Communication
and
other 2
ment
projects,
manufacturing 3
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982 4.
156.98
157.71
171.45
198.08
231.24
270.46
295.63
321.49
328.60
64.29
65.21
71.20
80.31
92.70
105.73
117.55
133.46
92.69
92.50
100.25
117.77
138.54
164.73
178.08
188.04
53.21
54.92
59.95
69.22
79.72
98.68
115.81
126.79
127.29
27.44
26.33
28.47
34.04
40.43
51.07
58.91
61.84
61.17
25.76
28.59
31.47
35.18
39.29
47.61
56.90
64.95
66.12
103.78
102.79
111.50
128.87
151.52
171.77
179.81
194.70
201.31
4.62
6.10
7.44
9.24
10.21
11.38
13.51
16.86
17.24
8.23
8.68
8.89
9.40
10.68
12.35
12.09
12.05
12.57
19.83
19.98
22.37
26.79
29.95
33.96
35.44
38.40
39.55
47.79
46.23
49.30
56.54
68.66
79.26
81.79
86.33
88.79
23.30
21.80
23.51
26.90
32.02
34.83
36.99
41.06
43.15
56.51
59.38
77.40
88.16
112.98
123.32
135.19
1981: I
II
Ill
312.24
316.73
328.25
327.83
128.57
131.05
136.40
136.67
183.67
185.68
191.85
191.17
124.50
125.49
130.11
126.91
61.24
63.10
62.58
60.78
63.27
62.40
67.53
66.14
187.74
191.24
198.13
200.92
16.20
16.80
17.55
16.81
11.74
11.70
11,61
13.12
36.05
37.84
39.55
39.74
83.43
85.88
87.55
88.33
40.32
39.02
41.89
42.92
35.41
32.90
33.33
33.68
327.72
323.75
328.04
334.78
139.49
188.23
128.32
125.69
128.55
127.01
60.84
60.67
61.44
61.82
67.48
65.02
67.11
199.40
198.07
199.48
207.78
17.60
16.33
16.71
18.29
11.99
12.01
12.97
13.34
40.12
40.04
38.25
40.05
87.80
87.62
88.07
91.16
41.89
42.08
43.48
44.94
27.73
IV
1982: I
II 44
in 4
IV
1
Wholesale and retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and personal, business, and professiona! services.
2
"Other" consists of construction; social services and membership organizations; and forestry,
fisheries, and agricultural services.
10
65.19
3
61.24
Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during given period.
4
Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late April and May 1982, corrected for
biases.
_
houree: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE
Seasonally adjusted employment fell 32,000 in July and unemployment rose 363,000.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
MILLIONS OF PERSONS'
1974
1982
*16 Y E A R S OF AGE AND OVER.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted]
Unemp oyment
Civilian e mployment
Period
1976
1977
1978*
1979
1980
1981
Noninstitutional
population
158,294
161,166
164,027
166,951
169,848
172,272
Civilian
employment
88,752
92,017
96,048
98,824
99,303
100,397
ployment
7,406
6,991
6,202
6,137
7,637
8,273
Total labor
force
(including
Armed
Forces)
labor force
98,302
101,142
104,368
107,050
109,042
110,812
96,158
99,009
102,251
104,962
106,940
108,670
Nonagncultural
Total
Total
88,752
92,017
96,048
98,824
99,303
100,397
1982:
3,331
3,283
3,387
3,347
3,364
3,368
Total
15 weeks
economic
reasons 1
85,421
88,734
92,661
95,477
95,938
97,030
3,334
3,369
3,298
3,373
4,064
4,499
7,406
6,991
6,202
6,137
7,637
8,273
2,366
1,942
1,414
1,241
1,871
2,285
62.1
62.8
63.6
64.1
64.2
64.3
Seas mally adjus ted
TJnadjusted
1981:
Part-time
Agricul-
Labor
force
participation rate
(percent) 2
Dec
172,385
172,559
172,758
172,966
173,155
173,330
102,612
102,152
100,389
101,028
100,502
99,562
8,130
7,947
7,884
8,216
8,676
9,013
110,827
110,978
110,659
111,170
111,430
111,348
108,688
108,818
108,494
109,012
109,272
109,184
100,864
100,840
100,258
100,343
100,172
99,613
3,342
3,404
3,358
3,378
3,372
3,209
97,522
97,436
96,900
96,965
96,800
96,404
4,374
4,350
4,656
5,009
5,026
5,288
7,824
7,978
8,236
8,669
9,100
9,571
2,170
2,217
2,248
2,292
2,364
2,372
64.3
64.3
64.1
64.3
64.4
64.2
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
173,495
173,657
173,843
174,020
174,201
174,364
174,544
97,831
97,946
98,471
98,858
99,957
100,683
101,490
10,183
10,378
10,290
9,957
9,957
10,886
11,036
111,038
111,333
111,521
111,824
112,841
.112,364
112,702
108,879
109,165
109,346
109,648
110,666
110,191
110,522
99,581
99,590
99,492
99,340
100,117
99,764
99,732
3,411
3,373
3,349
3,309
3,488
3,357
3,460
96,170
96,217
96,144
96,032
96,629
96,406
96,272
5,071
5,563
5,717
5,834
5,763
5,444
5,492
9,298
9,575
9,854
10,307
10,549
10,427
10,790
2,399
2,724
2,954
3,015
3,286
3,673
3,580
64.0
64.1
64.2
64.3
64.8
64.4
64.6
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
1
Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc.
2
Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of age and over.
*Data beginning 1978 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of revisions in the household survey, which added about 250,000 to labor force and to employment.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
11
SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
In July the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 9.8 percent, from 9.5 percent in June.
PERCENT' (SEASONALLY
25
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
25
ADJUSTED)
'
/v
20
TEENAGERS
(16-19)
10
10
WOMEN 20 YEARS
AND OVER
„.,.--•-' \
MEN 20 YEARS
AND OVER
i i1M
1982
1978
1 1 1 11
1 M
1978
1980
•UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
1 I
1 1 M 1
1982
1981
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Unemployment rate (pe rcent of civi mn labor fore e in group)
By
By sex and ag e
Period
(all
civilian
workers)
Men
20 years
and over
Women
20 years
and over
Both
sexes
16-19
years
White
r
By
ace
Black and
other
Experienced
wage and
salary
workers
Married
men,
spouse
present
selected gro rps
Women
who
maintain
families
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
7.7
7.1
6.1
5.8
7.1
7.6
5.9
5.2
4.3
4.2
5.9
6.3
7.4
7.0
6.0
5.7
6.4
6.8
19.0
17.8
16.4
16.1
17.8
19.6
7.0
6.2
5.2
5.1
6.3
6.7
13.1
13.1
11.9
11.3
13.1
14.2
7.3
6.6
5.6
5.5
6.9
7.3
4.2
3.6
2.8
2.8
4.2
4.3
10.1
1981: July
Aug
Sept
Oct
7.2
7.3
7.6
8.0
8.3
8.8
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.7
7.1
7.9
6.7
6.6
6.9
7.0
7.2
7.4
18.7
19.0
19.7
20.4
21.4
21.5
6.3
6.2
6.6
7.0
7.4
7.7
13.8
14.7
14.8
15.2
15.2
15.7
6.8
6.9
7.3
7.6
8.0
8.5
8.5
8.8
9.0
9.4
9.5
9.5
9.8
7.5
7.6
7.9
8.2
8.4
8.7
8.8
7.2
7.6
7.9
8.3
8.3
8.1
8.4
21.7
22.3
21.9
23.0
23.1
22.3
24.1
7.5
7.7
7.9
8.4
8.5
8.4
8.7
15.1
15.9
16.6
16.9
17.2
17.1
17.3
8.2
8.4
8.8
9.2
9.3
9.2
9.4
Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
1
Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons j
cent of potentially available labor force hours.
12
Full-time
workers
Part-time
workers
7.3
10.1
Labor
force
time lost
(percent) '
9.9
8.3
7.6
8.3
9.2
10.4
6.6
5.6
5.3
6.9
7.3
9.0
8.8
8.8
9.4
6.5
6.3
7.9
8.5
3.9
4.0
4.4
4.8
5.2
5.7
11.2
10.1
10.7
10.6
10.8
10.5
6.8
6.9
7.3
7.7
8.1
8.7
9.3
9.6
9.6
9.5
10.2
9.2
7.9
7.9
8.5
9.1
9.5
10.1
5.3
5.3
5.5
6.0
6.1
6.5
6.6
10.4
10.2
10.6
11.5
11.8
12.4
12.0
8.4
8.5
8.9
9.2
9.2
9.4
9.5
9.6
10.8
10.0
10.9
10.5
9.8
11.4
10.0
9.8
10.4
10.4
11.1
10.2
10.7
9.4
8.5
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE PROGRAMS
In July, the percentage of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 15 weeks rose, and the
percentage out of work for 15 weeks and longer periods fell.
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*
REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
60
JOB LOSERS
50
40
-
REENTRANTS
30
*—
20
V-**
20
JOB LEAVERS
10 -*
NEW ENTRANTS
1982
1978
1979
1978
1980
1981
1982
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Period
„
ployment
(thousands)
Percent distribution of unemplo pment by
dura ion '
Less
than 5
weeks
5-14
weeks
15-26
weeks
27
weeks
and
over
yment by
Percent distribution of unemplo
rea on 1
Job
losers
Job
leavers
Reentrants
Sta te
programs
New
entrants
Insured
unemployment
Initial
claims
Insured
unemployment, all
regular
programs
(unadjusted) 2
Special
unemployment
benefit
claims
(unadjusted) 3
We ekly averag e, thousands
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981:
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Peb
Mar
Apr
May
June ....
July
6,991
6,202
6,137
7,637
8,273
41.8
46.2
48.1
43.1
41.7
30.5
31.0
31.7
32.3
30.7
13.1
12.4
11.5
13.8
13.6
14.7
10.4
8.7
10.7
14.0
45.3
41.7
42.9
51.7
51.6
13.0
14.1
14.3
11.7
11.2
28.1
29.9
29.4
25.2
25.4
13.6
14.3
13.3
11.4
11.9
2,655
2,359
2,434
3,350
3,048
375
346
388
488
460
3,308
2,645
2,592
3,837
3,410
7,824
7,978
8,236
8,669
9,100
9,571
42.6
41.5
42.2
42.7
42.3
42.8
29.6
30.8
30.9
30.9
31.7
32.0
14.0
13.5
13.7
13.4
13.5
12.6
13.8
14.2
13.2
13.0
12.5
12.6
49.5
51.4
52.8
52.4
53.6
56.1
11.9
11.0
11.0
11.2
10.0
9.7
26.6
25.5
24.6
25.0
25.5
23.5
12.0
12.2
11.7
11.5
10.9
10.7
2,767
2,844
2,961
3,159
3,428
3,583
397
435
482
522
541
567
3,012
2,874
2,680
2,753
3,228
3,935
9,298
9,575
9,854
10,307
10,549
10,427
10,790
41.3
39.6
38.8
38.5
37.0
33.2
37.2
32.9
31.9
31.2
32.1
31.7
32.4
29.5
13.0
15.1
16.3
14.7
15.6
17.1
16.7
12.8
13.4
13.7
14.7
15.8
17.3
16.7
56.7
54.3
57.4
57.4
56.9
59.6
57.4
9.1
10.2
9.0
9.1
8.4
7.7
7.5
22.7
24.0
22.9
23.0
23.5
22.4
23.5
11.5
11.6
10.7
10.5
11.1
10.3
11.6
3,546
3,484
3,736
4,022
4,032
4,140
3,938
562
517
594
579
595
555
516
4,681
4,723
4,892
4,760
4,388
4,328
1
Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding.
'Includes State {50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen
(UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RE) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended
benefit programs. Does not include FSB (Federal supplemental benefits) and SUA (special unemployment assistance).
3
572
FSB and SUA. These programs started January 1975 and regular reporting began March 1975.
Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration).
13
NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
In July, total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey was virtually unchanged from its June
level.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS'
MILLIONS OF PERSONS' (ENLARGED SCALE)
90
ALL NONAGRICULTURAL
ESTABLISHMENTS
80
-
70
SERVICE-PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES
60 .-
22
50
20
40 -
GOODS-PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES
30
iiiititiiitijiii,, u,,,
\
'••••".S..M..." ••""
20
II ' ' t ' I ' I I 1 I
I I I I I I I 1I I I
I 1I t I I I I I I I
1978
1979
1980
1I M I I |
1982
1981
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of UBOR
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Thousands of wage and salary workers;l seasonally adjusted]
Serviee-p roducing indiistries
Goods- )roducing im ustries
Total
nonagriPeriod
employment
M anufacturing
Total 2
Construction
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
Total
Transportation and
public
utilities
Wholesale and
retail
trade
Govenrament
Finance,
insurance,
and real
estate
Services
4,467
4,724
4,975
5,160
5,301
15,303
16,252
17,112
17,890
18,592
2,727
2,753
2,773
2,866
2,772
12,399
12,919
13,174
13,375
13,253
Federal
State
and
local
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
82,471
86,697
89,823
90,406
91,105
24,346
25,585
26,461
25,658
25,481
3,851
4,229
4,463
4,346
4,176
19,682
20,505
21,040
20,285
20,173
11,597
12,274
12,760
12,187
12,117
8,086
8,231
8,280
8,098
8,056
58,125
61,113
63,363
64,748
65,625
4,713
4,923
5,136
5,146
5,157
18,516
19,542
20,192
20,310
20,551
1981: July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
91,396
91,322
91,363
91,224
90,996
90,642
25,718
25,637
25,583
25,393
25,176
24,908
4,175
4,146
4,124
4,101
4,071
4,026
20,379
20,311
20,267
20,097
19,903
19,676
12,266
12,228
12,184
12,059
11,901
11,724
8,113
8,083
8,083
8,038
8,002
7,952
65,678
65,685
65,780
65,831
65,820
65,734
5,168
5,168
5,181
5,162
5,150
5,128
20,620
20,650
20,660
20,654
20,623
20,524
5,311
5,319
5,328
5,325
5,324
5,331
18,615
18,654
18,707
18,773
18,815
18,834
2,775
2,769
2,764
2,757
2,749
2,756
13,189
13,125
13,140
13,160
13,159
13,161
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June p ...
July"....
90,460
90,459
90,304
90,083
90,166
89,860
89,843
24,684
24,631
24,450
24,289
24,255
23,992
23,878
3,966
3,974
3,934
3,938
3,988
3,942
3,932
19,517
19,454
19,319
19,169
19,115
18,929
18,839
11,622
11,575
11,490
11,375
11,332
11,205
11,157
7,895
7,879
7,829
7,794
7,783
7,724
7,682
65,776
65,828
65,854
65,794
65,911
65,868
65,965
5,125
5,115
5,100
5,094
5,101
5,081
5,058
20,630
20,670
20,655
20,584
20,652
20,602
20,629
5,326
5,326
5,336
5,335
5,342
5,356
5,362
18,831
18,867
18,904
18,929
18,963
19,012
19,066
2,741
2,737
2,736
2,730
2,728
2,739
2,748
13,123
13,113
13,123
13,122
13,125
13,078
13,102
1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who
worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the monthExcludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces.
Total derived from this tahle not comparable with estimates of nonagricultiiral employment of the
civilian labor force, shown on p. I I , which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic
servants; which count persons as emp\oye<I when they are not at work because of industrial dis-
14
putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample
of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from emploving establishments.
5
Includes mining, not shown separately.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nan supervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Average gi oss hourlv
earn ings
Average weekh
hours
Period
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981: July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June p
July*
Manufa cturing
Total
private
nonagricultural l
Total
36.9
36.5
36.1
36.1
36.0
35.8
35.7
35.3
35.2
35.3
35.2
35.0
35.1
35.1
35.0
34.4
35.0
34.9
34.9
35.0
34.8
34.9
Total
private
nonagrieultural '
Overtime
3.8
3.3
2.6
3.1
3.5
40.7
40.0
39.5
40.1
40.3
40.4
40.2
39.7
39.8
40.0
39.9
39.4
39.5
39.3
39.1
37.6
39.4
39.0
39.0
39.1
39.2
39.3
3.6
3.3
2.8
2.8
3.0
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.4
Adjuste d hourlv earnin gs index — total private
nonagnc ultural 2
Ind ex,
Manufacturing
$4.09
4.42
4.83
5.22
5.68
6.17
6.70
7.27
7.99
8.03
8.09
8.14
8.16
8.20
8.20
8.38
8.34
8.37
8.44
8.48
8.52
8.56
$3.94
4.24
4.53
4.86
5.25
5.69
6.16
6.66
7.25
7.27
7.34
7.37
7.40
7.45
7.46
7.52
7.53
7.54
7.59
7.65
7.66
7.70
Percent chang e from a vear
1977
dollars 3
Current
dollars
74.1
80.0
86.7
92.9
100.0
108.1
116.8
127.3
138.9
139.1
140.5
141.4
142.0
143.0
143.5
144.9
145.0
145.4
146.3
147.7
148.0
148.7
Current
dollars
101.1
98.3
97.6
99.0
100.0
100.5
97.4
6.2
8.0
8.4
7.2
7.6
8.1
8.0
9.0
9.1
93.5
92.6
92.2
92.5
92.1
92.1
92.3
92.3
92.9
92.8
93.3
93.7
93.7
93.0
92.8
8.8
9.3
9.3
8.8
8.4
8.2
8.3
7.5
7.2
7.2
7.3
7.0
6.9
1977 dollars
-0.1
-2.8
-.7
1.4
1.0
.5
3.1
-4.0
1.0
-1.7
— 1.4
-1.4
-1.4
-.9
-.4
.1
.1
.6
.8
.8
.1
.6
AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Percent ch ange from
a year earlier,
total private n onagricultural 5
Avera ge gross weekly ea rnmgs
Period
Total arivate
nonagncultural '
Current dollars
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981: July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June p
July".
$145.39
154.76
163.53
175.45
189.00
203.70
219.91
235.10
255.20
256.63
258.37
257.95
259.74
261.50
261.10
258.69
263.55
263.15
264.89
267.75
266.57
268.73
Manufacturing
1977 dollars 3
$198.35
190.12
184.16
186.85
189.00
189.31
183.41
172.74
170.13
170.18
170.09
168.05
168.44
168.82
167.91
165.93
168.62
168.90
169.69
169.89
167.44
167.75
$166.46
176.80
190.79
209.32
228.90
249.27
269.34
288.62
318.00
321.20
322.79
320.72
322.32
322.26
320.62
315.09
328.60
326.43
329.16
331.57
333.98
336.41
1
4
5
Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.
Adjusted lor interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing.
C»rrent dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index on a 1977=100 base.
Revised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 1978.
Wholesale and
retail trade
Current dollars
1977 dollars
Current dollars
2
3
Construction
$235.89
249.25
266.08
283.73
295.65
318.69
342.99
367.78
398.52
400.34
401.12
386.54
407.01
416.64
415.14
405.50
420.71
420.29
421.77
432.75
423.57
429.66
$111.76
119.02
126.45
133.79
142.52
153.64
164.96
176.46
190.95
191.27
192.56
193.56
192.96
194.53
194.56
193.05
195.20
195.23
195.89
198.40
198.10
198.42
6.2
6.4
5.7
7.3
7.7
7.8
8.0
6.9
8.5
10.0
9.6
8.4
7.9
7.3
6.1
3.7
6.2
4.8
4.5
5.2
4.8
4.7
0.0
— 4.1
-3.1
1.5
1.2
.2
3.1
-5.8
1.5
.7
— 1.1
-2.2
2.0
-1.8
2.4
-4.1
— 1.1
-1.6
1.7
-1.2
-2.0
-1.4
Monthlv changes based on indexes to two decimal places.
Based on unadjusted data.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
15
PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR
Out)put *
Period
Business
sector
Hours of all
pers ons 2
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
Output per hour of all
pen ons
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
Nonfann
business
sector
Compensation per
hoiI T 3
Business
sector
Nonfann
business
sector
Implic t price
defla tor 4
Unit labor
CO st
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
1977=100 quarterly < ata season!illy adjuste(
1968
1969
76.8
79.0
76.6
78.8
90.1
92.5
88.2
91.1
85.3
85.5
86.8
86.5
50.7
54.2
51.5
54.8
59.4
63.4
59.3
63.4
60.2
63.2
60.4
63.3
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
78.4
80.7
86.1
91.8
89.9
78.0
80.3
85.8
91.7
89.8
91.0
90.5
93.2
96.8
97.3
89.8
89.5
92.3
96.2
96.7
86.2
89.2
92.4
94.7
92.5
86.8
89.7
93.0
95.3
92.9
58.2
62.0
66.1
71.3
78.0
58.7
62.5
66.7
71.7
78.5
67.5
69.5
71.5
75.3
84.4
67.6
69.7
71.7
75.3
84.5
66.0
69.0
71.3
75.3
82.4
66.3
69.3
71.3
74.0
81.6
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
88.2
93.8
100.0
105.5
107.8
87.8
93.7
100.0
105.7
108.0
93.3
96.0
100.0
104.9
108.2
92.7
95.8
100.0
105.0
108.7
94.5
97.6
100.0
100.6
99.6
94.7
97.8
100.0
100.6
99.3
85.5
92.9
100.0
108.6
119.1
86.0
93.0
100.0
108.6
118.8
90.5
95.1
100.0
108.0
119.5
90.8
95.1
100.0
108.0
119.6
90.5
94.7
100.0
107.5
117.2
90.0
94.6
100.0
107.1
116.5
1980
1981
106.2
108.9
106.3
108.6
107.4
108.2
108.0
108.7
98.9
100.7
98.5
99.9
131.4
144.1
130.9
143.6
132.9
143.1
133.0
143.8
128.3
140.4
128.3
140.8
1980: m
IV
105.3
107.0
105.3
107.3
106.5
107.7
107.0
108.2
98.9
99.3
98.4
99.2
133.1
136.1
132.6
135.7
134.7
137.0
134.7
136.8
129.9
132.8
129.9
132.7
1981: I
109.1
109.1
109.6
107.8
109.2
109.0
109.1
107.1
108.3
108.3
108.5
107.5
108.8
109.0
109.1
108.1
100.7
100.7
101.0
100.2
100.4
100.0
100.0
99.1
140.0
142.5
145.6
148.2
139.5
142.0
145.1
147.7
139.0
141.5
144.2
147.9
139.0
141.9
145.1
149.0
136.5
138.8
141.9
144.6
136.5
138.9
142.3
145.5
106.3
106.4
106.0
106.0
106.3
106.1
106.8
106.7
100.0
100.3
99.2
99.3
150.9
153.4
150.4
152.6
150.9
153.0
151.6
153.7
146.0
147.7
146.6
148.2
n
m
IV
1982: I
n
Percent eh ange; quart«rly data a seasonally adjusted aiinual rates
1968
1969
5.1
2.9
5.3
2.9
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
-.8
3.0
6.6
6.6
-2.0
1.0
2.9
6.9
6.8
-2.1
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
-2.0
6.4
6.6
5.5
2.3
-2.2
6.7
6.7
5.7
2.2
1980
1981
-1.5
2.5
1980: m
IV
1981: I
n
m
IV
1982:
I
n
1
1.7
2.6
2.0
3.2
3.3
.2
3.3
q
7.8
7.0
7.5
6.5
4.4
6.7
4.1
6.8
4.0
4.9
4.0
4.7
-1.3
-.4
3.1
4.3
.5
.8
3.6
3.5
2.6
-2.4
.3
3.3
3.7
2.4
2.5
7.3
6.6
6.5
8.0
9.4
7.0
6.6
6.7
7.6
9.4
6.4
2.9
2.9
5.3
12.1
6.6
3.2
2.9
5.0
12.2
4.5
4.4
3.4
5.5
9.5
4.8
4.5
3.0
3.8
10.2
3.0
4.1
4.9
3.2
-4.1
3.4
4.4
5.0
3.5
2.2
3.3
2.4
.6
-.9
2.0
3.2
2.2
.6
-1.3
9.6
8.6
7.7
8.6
9.7
9.6
8.1
7.5
8.6
9.3
7.3
5.1
5.1
8.0
10.7
7.5
4.7
5.2
8.0
10.7
9.8
4.7
5.6
7.5
9.0
10.3
5.0
5.7
7.1
8.8
-1.5
2.2
-.7
.7
-.7
.7
»7
1.8
-.9
1.4
10.4
9.6
10.2
9.7
11.2
7.7
11.2
8.1
9.4
9.5
10.2
9.7
2.1
6.8
2.7
7.8
5
4.7
-.7
4.6
2.6
2.0
3.4
3.1
10.1
9.4
10.4
9.8
7.3
7.2
6.8
6.5
10.0
9.3
8.6
8.9
7.9
-.1
1.9
-6.4
7.2
-.8
.3
7.1
2.1
-.1
.8
3.6
2.2
.5
.6
-3.7
5.6
.0
1.1
-2.9
4.9
-1.3
.3
-3.5
11.7
7.5
9.0
7.4
11.8
7.1
9.0
7.3
5.7
7.5
7.8
10.6
6.6
8.6
9.3
11.2
11.6
6.6
9.3
8.0
12.1
7.1
10.2
9.2
5.5
.4
-4.2
.3
-4.5
-.8
-4.7
-.1
-1.0
1.2
.6
.5
7.3
6.9
7.7
6.0
8.4
5.6
7.1
5.5
3.8
4.7
3.3
4.4
-1.6
FJ
3.0
3.9
.4
4 J
Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars.
Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and
unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data.
* Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private
benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed.
Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.
2
16
NOTE.—Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore
may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here.
Series revised for 1982 and 1970-76.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Industrial production fell 0.1 percent in July following declines of 0.7 percent in both May and June. The index for
July was 10.3 percent below the year earlier level.
INDEX, 1967=100*
(RATIO SCALE)
INDEX, 1967=100*
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
180
180
(RATIO SCALE)
UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION
160
160
UTILITIES
140
140
120
120
*•'
1978
i 111 11111 i
1979
MINING
iiiIi
1980
1981
1982
ill
100
1978
MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION
1980
1979
1981
1982
PERCENT* (RATIO SCALE)
100
MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE
90
80
120
70
1978
1982
1982
1978
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
[Seasonally adjusted]
Total
Period
Index,
1967 = 100
1967 proportion
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981:
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dee
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June ".
July"
1
2
3
Mining
Total
87.95
-8.9
10.8
5.9
5.7
4.4
-3.6
2.7
9.7
8.0
5.0
1.7
-1.9
-4.7
-7.1
-5.9
-6.8
-7.7
-8.8
-9.6
-10.3
116.3
130.3
138.4
146.8
153.6
146.7
150.4
153.2
153.2
151.1
148.0
145.0
142.0
138.5
140.9
140.1
138.7
137.8
137.1
137.1
Durable
Utilities
Nondurable
51.98
109.3
122.3
130.0
139.7
146.4
136.7
140.5
143.6
USA
140.9
137.8
134.4
131.3
127.1
129.3
128.2
126.7
126.0
125.3
125.2
Output as percent of capacity.
Annual data are averages of four monthly indexes.
Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Annual data are averages of quarterly data.
I lanufacturini ',
Manufacturing
Percent
change
from year
earlier
100.00
117.8
130.5
138.2
146.1
152.5
147.0
151.0
153.9
153.6
151.6
149.1
146.3
143.4
140.7
142.9
141.7
140.2
139.2
138.2
138.1
Cap Mity utilizati Dn rate, perc snt'
Industry proe uction indexes , 1967=100
indu trial
prodii etion
35.97
6.36
5.69
126.4
141.8
150.5
156.9
164.0
161.2
164.8
167.1
167.3
165.9
162.8
160.3
157.4
155.1
157.8
157.3
156.1
154.9
154.2
154.2
112.8
114.2
118.2
124.0
125.5
132.7
142.2
146.5
146.0
145.0
145.3
143.3
142.6
144.5
142.4
138.1
134.1
129.7
125.1
121.9
146.0
151.7
156.5
161.4
166.0
168.3
169.1
173.1
171.9
167.8
168.1
168.9
168.2
171.8
170.4
170.0
171.0
171.1
168.7
170.2
Materials
(Federal
Reserve
series)
73.4
81.1
82.7
85.6
87.4
80.0
79.9
81.9
81.6
80.0
77.7
75.5
72.4
71.4
72.9
71.8
70.5
69.5
68.9
68.8
Federal
Eeserve
series
72.9
79.5
81.9
84.4
85.7
79.1
78.5
79.8
79.6
78.3
76.6
74.8
73.1
71.1
72.2
71.6
70.8
70.2
69.7
69.5
Commerce
series 2
Wharton
series 3
81
83
84
83
78
76
78.8
84.8
87.2
89.9
91.4
85.5
85.2
76
86.2
72
81.6
77
72
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau
of Economic Analysis), and Wharton School of Finance.
17
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND
SELECTED MANUFACTURES
[1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted]
Prod ucts
Intermedia te products
Final P roducts
Period
Equi] ment
C onsumer good s
Total
Total
47.82
115.7
124.4
125.1
118.2
127.6
135.9
142.2
147.2
145.3
149.5
152.1
151.5
150.0
148.9
147.2
146.3
142.8
144.1
143.3
142.6
142.3
141.1
140.9
1967 proportion
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981: July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June p
July"
27.68
124.4
131.5
128.9
124.0
137.1
145.3
149.1
150.8
145.4
147.9
150.7
149.6
147.8
146.5
144.0
142.0
139.6
141.8
141.5
142.1
143.5
143.7
144.5
Durable
goods
7.89
133.8
146.2
135.3
121.4
141.9
154.0
159.2
155.8
136.7
140.5
146.5
142.5
140.4
136.3
129.7
123.2
120.1
125.9
128.1
130.7
133.3
136.1
138.4
Materials
Nondurable
goods
Total
Total
19.79
120.6
125.6
126.3
125.1
135.2
141.9
145.1
148.8
148.9
150.9
20.14
152.3
152.5
150.8
150.5
149.7
149.5
147.4
148.1
146.8
146.6
147.5
146.7
147.0
154.1
154.0
152.9
152.1
151.5
152.1
147.2
147.3
145.9
143.4
140.6
137.6
136.0
103.8
114.5
120.0
110.2
114.6
123.0
132.8
142.2
145.2
151.8
Business
12. S3
118.0,
134.2
142.4
128.2
135.4
147.8
160.3
171.3
173.2
181.1
184.8
184.4
182.7
180.5
179.0
179.0
172.2
171.6
169.0
164.9
160.2
155.2
152.0
Construction
supplies
12.89
6.42
126.5
137.2
135.3
123.1
137.2
145.1
154.1
160.5
151.9
154.4
156.2
156.8
154.6
151.4
148.7
145.9
143.4
146.3
145.2
143.7
142.2
140.8
141.1
128.4
139.8
134.5
116.3
132.6
140.6
151.7
158.0
140.9
141.9
144.3
144.0
139.7
135.2
130.1
127.0
124.2
127.5
125.6
123.6
121.5
120.9
121.2
Supplementary
group:
Energy
total
39.29
122.3
133.9
132.4
115.5
131.7
138.6
148.3
156.4
147.6
151.6
155.3
155.2
152.5
148.5
144.6
139.0
137.2
140.4
138.5
136.2
134.6
133.7
133.7
12.23
125.2
128.3
125.5
125.5
129.1
132.9
135.4
137.9
137.7
137.4
141.2
140.5
136.8
136.9
137.2
136.7
139.5
138.9
137.6
136.7
136.8
136.1
137.6
[1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted]
IsFondurable
Durable mimufactures
Transp jrtation
equipment
Primary metals
Period
Total
1967 proportion
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981: July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June v
July f
6.57
112.1
126.7
123.1
96.4
109.7
111.1
119.9
121.3
102.3
107.9
109.4
113.1
108.6
102.3
96.6
89.6
89.7
88.5
83.0
76.4
74.6
72.7
73.1
Iron and
steel
4.21
107.1
122.3
119.8
95.8
104.8
103.8
113.2
113.2
92.4
99.8
99.7
105.1
99.2
92.2
87.2
79.2
79.6
78.5
73.0
65.1
62.4
58.3
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
18
Fabricated metal
products
Nonelectrical
machinery
5.93
9.15
112.1
124.7
124.2
109.9
123.9
131.0
141.6
148.5
134.1
136.4
140.1
140.0
136.8
133.8
130.2
126.1
120.7
121.4
121.1
119.1
116.0
114.8
114.9
116.0
133.7
140.1
125.1
134.5
143.6
153.6
163.7
162.8
171.2
176.7
176.4
173.9
169.7
167.9
167.4
160.9
160.0
157.3
153.7
150.2
145.9
142.1
Electrical
machinery
Total
8.05
122.2
143.1
143.8
116.5
134.8
145.4
159.4
175.0
172.8
178.4
180.9
182.6
180.0
179.6
175.7
170.7
168.2
172.9
172.6
172.2
170.5
171.3
171.4
9.27
108.2
118.3
108.7
97.4
111.1
122.2
132.5
135.4
116.9
116.1
119.8
115.4
114.2
110.6
106.1
103.7
96.6
102.0
104.4
105.9
110.0
111.7
114.0
Motor
vehicles
and parts
4.50
135.8
148.8
128.2
111.1
142.0
161.1
169.9
159.9
119.0
122.3
130.5
123.1
120.4
113.8
105.5
100.4
90.4
98.6
105.6
110.7
119.8
124.3
128.2
Lumber
and
products
1.64
120.8
126.0
116.2
107.6
123.2
131.2
136.3
136.9
119.3
119.1
122.9
119.1
113.2
109.6
104.7
104.8
99.2
104.9
103.5
106.2
111.0
111.5
Apparel
products
3.31
109.4
117.3
114.3
107.6
125.7
134.2
134.2
134.4
127.0
120.4
122.6
122.6
122.5
117.8
113.8
114.1
nanufacture s
Printing
and
publishing
Chemicals and
products
4.72
112.7
118.2
118.2
113.3
122.5
127.6
131.5
136.9
139.6
144.2
144.4
146.1
145.9
145.6
143.4
145.3
145.6
146.4
145.9
144.2
143.3
141.0
140.5
7.74
8.75
143.6
154.5
159.4
147.2
170.9
185.7
197.4
211.8
207.1
215.6
221.5
219.2
216.3
208.8
204.6
199.8
196.7
201.3
200.3
198.6
194.0
192.2
116.8
120.9
124.0
123.4
133.0
138.8
142.7
147.5
149.6
152.1
151.6
151.9
150.7
151.4
153.0
152.8
151.1
151.7
150.8
149.7
150.0
Foods
NEW CONSTRUCTION
Constructio n contracts 2
Private
Period
Total new
construction
expenditures
Resi iential
Total
Commercial
and industrial
New housing
Total '
Other
Federal,
State, and
local
Total value
index
(1977 = 100)
Commercial
and industrial
floor space
(millions of
square feet)
I illions of dollars
135.9
151.1
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
173.8
205.6
230.4
230.7
238.2
95.1
112.0
135.7
159.7
181.6
175.7
185.2
46.5
60.5
81.0
93.4
99.0
87.3
86.6
34.4
47.3
65.7
75.8
78.6
63.1
62.7
20.8
19.9
22.5
29.6
39.9
43.8
51.3
27.8
31.5
32.2
36.7
42.7
44.7
47.4
Seasonally
adjusted
Seasonal ly adjusted annu al rates
1981:
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June "
JulyP
237.5
238.1
235.9
233.5
230.8
230.0
228.8
185.9^
186.9
185.2
182.4
180.0
178.1
176.6
225.1
222.6
224.6
226.2
227.7
230.7
175.5
173.0
173.6
175.3
179.2
182.8
89.1
87.0
84.1
80.4
78.2
76.2
75.8
73.7
69.2
70.0
72.4
75.6
74.8
66.8
64.1
60.8
57.1
53.4
50.4
49.4
51.0
49.2
51.0
49.6
51.0
49.1
1
Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately.
2
F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971
for floor space.
66.0
79.0
100.0
114.0
121.0
106.0
107.0
40.9
39.1
38.2
45.9
48.8
55.1
53.0
50.3
52.0
53.0
53.4
53.2
54.0
53.0
53.3
54.1
55.0
54.3
53.9
57.8
555
592
739
977
1,059
904
906
Seasonally
adjusted
annual rates
46.5
47.9
48.2
48.6
48.6
47.9
47.7
51.7
51.2
50.7
51.1
50.8
51.9
52.2
109
99
99
100
101
92
112
972
882
944
817
891
849
848
48.5
49.8
48.6
48.6
49.7
50.2
49.6
49.6
51.0
50.9
48.5
47.8
118
97
105
88
94
111
98
675
781
758
688
620
816
677
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company, F. W. Dodge Division.
NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES
[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]
New priv ate homes
New private housing units
Period
Units started, b} type of structure
Total
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1,337.7
1,160.4
1,537.5
1,987.1
2,020.3
1,745.1
1,292.2
1,084.2
1 unit
888.1
892.2
1,162.4
1,450.9
1,433.3
1,194.1
852.2
705.4
2-4 units
68.1
64.0
85.9
121.7
125.0
122.0
109.5
91.1
5 or more units
381.6
204.3
289.2
414.4
462.0
429.0
330.5
287.7
Units
authorized
1,074.4
939.2
1,296.2
1,690.0
1,800.5
1,551.8
1,190.6
985.5
Units
completed
Homes sold
Vacancy rate
Homes for
sale at end of
period *
1,728.5
1,317.2
1,377.2
1,657.1
1,867.5
1,870.8
1,501.6
1,265.7
519
549
646
819
817
709
545
436
1,320
1,233
1,202
1,265
1,067
1,114
1,063
920
926
962
1,135
911
408
364
335
359
388
456
312
308
304
291
282
272
399
376
380
335
398
371
353
275
274
269
264
259
254
250
346
313
353
402
414
3
398
336
272
housing units
(percent) 2
6.2
6.0
5.6
5.2
5.0
5.4
5.4
Seasonal y adjusted annu al rates
1981:
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May "
June p
July "
1
1,040
946
899
854
860
882
885
945
931
882
1,066
906
1,211
696
614
623
507
554
550
592
568
621
566
631
616
614
88
76
62
78
81
74
256
256
214
269
225
258
941
878
835
738
743
797
70
84
67
64
86
85
114
223
293
243
252
349
205
483
803
792
851
879
944
929
1,103
Seasonally adjusted.
Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable
with earlier data.
3
New series beginning March 1979.
2
5.0
5.0
5.3
5.1
NOTE.—Units authorized beginning 1978 relate to 16,000 permit-issuing places; data for
1973-77 are for 14,000 places.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
19
BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Total and Trade
Business sales fell 1V4 percent in June while inventories rose $1% million. According to the advance survey, retail
sales rose 1 percent in July following a decline of 3% percent in June.
BILLIONS Of DOLLARS'(RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
600
'140
130
550
TOTAL BUSINESS
INVENTORIES
500
120
110
450
100
400
90
350
80
300
70
"•••»...X
RETAIL SALES
TOTAL BUSINESS
SALES
60
250 -/
50
200
40
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
RATIO*
1.80
150
100
1979
1978
1980
1981
1982
1982
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Total biisiness 1
Period
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Inventory- ales ratio 4
Re tail
Who esale
Sales2
Sales
2
Inven-
2
Sales
InvenTotal
Durable
goods
stores
Inventories 3
Nondurable goods
stores
Total
Durable
goods
stores
Nondurable goods
stores
Total
Retail
Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
177,625
182,230
204,277
229,623
259,046
294,573
321,504
350,622
285,807
288,375
318,544
351,175
397,090
444,132
482,571
520,024
47,748
46,623
50,694
55,987
65,036
76,109
87,931
97,839
56,948
56,697
64,078
72,311
83,891
93,870
104,441
111,179
45,082
49,012
54,781
60,435
67,057
74,529
79,325
86,566
14,118
15,247
18,150
20,724
23,313
25,401
24,716
27,216
30,964
33,765
36,631
39,711
43,744
49,128
54,609
59,350
71,067
71,744
79,273
89,530
102,520
109,228
114,114
125,693
32,861
33,356
37,841
43,135
49,914
53,265
53,747
58,835
38,206
38,388
41,432
46,395
52,606
55,963
60,367
66,858
1.45
1.57
1.48
1.46
1.44
1.43
1.45
1.43
1.48
1.44
1.38
1.40
1.43
1.44
1.41
1.39
1981: June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
NOT
Dec
356,277
355,070
354,594
353,419
346,619
344,913
341,106
501,383
504,744
509,959
515,387
518,458
521,644
520,024
98,027
97,445
97,359
97,440
96,249
96,738
94,920
106,756
105,768
107,516
108,802
108,708
110,243
111,179
87,299
87,292
87,961
87,823
86,413
86,733
86,572
27,725
27,759
28,098
27,810
26,354
26,436
26,206
59,574
59,533
59,863
60,013
60,059
60,297
60,366
120,010
121,993
123,341
124,376
125,364
125,618
125,693
56,764
57,865
58,545
58,761
59,014
58,907
58,835
63,246
64,128
64,796
65,615
66,350
66,711
66,858
1.41
1.42
1.44
1.46
1.50
1.51
1.52
1.37
1.40
1.40
1.42
1.45
1.45
1.45
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June "
July"
334,710
341,415
342,339
339,385
349,283
345,174
516,439
513,797
512,766
514,883
510,356
512,011
94,367
95,854
97,580
94,977
97,614
95,768
111,154
108,714
109,369
112,722
111,540
112,509
85,320
87,418
87,242
88,294
90,841
87,887
88,723
25,316
26,696
26,958
27,984
29,416
27,087
27,520
60,004
60,722
60,284
60,310
61,425
60,800
61,203
124,131
123,395
123,332
123,175
122,367
124,387
57,807
56,957
56,803
56,663
55,984
57,304
66,324
66,438
66,529
66,512
66,383
67,083
1.54
1.50
1.50
1.52
1.46
1.48
1.45
1.41
1.41
1.40
1.35
1.42
lr
The term "business" also includes manufacturing (see page 21).
Monthly average for year and total for month.
Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted.
4
For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly
2
3
20
data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).
MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
In July, manufacturers' shipments and new orders rose, inventories were about unchanged, and unfilled orders fell.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
320
280
-INVENTORIES
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
200
180 —SHIPMENTS
160
240
140
200
120
100
160
DURABLE GOODS
\
80
120
NONDURABLE GOODS
100
60
80
NONDURABLE GOODS
40
60
1M
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS'(RATIO SCALE)
200
180
160
40
M I I I I 1 I M i I il i I I I i I I I I I H I M I I i I I I I M I M I I t M I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I
RATIO*
2.2
INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO
_
1978
10
1.8 -
1978
1982
1979
1980
*SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
1981
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Manufa .cturers' ship ments 1
1Eanufacturers ' new ordersi
Manufa cturers' invei tories 2
Durabl 3 goods
Period
Total
Durable
goods
1982
Capital
Nondurable goods
Durable
goods
Nondurable goods
Total
industries,
Nondurable goods
Manufacturers'
unfilled
orders 3
Manufacturers'
inventory —
shipments
defense
Millions of
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981: July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July"
1
2
3
86,595
98,802
113,201
126,953
143,935
154,249
166,217
170,333
169,274
168,156
163,957
161,442
159,614
155,023
158,142
157,517
156,114
160,828
161,519
162,528
43,656
50,689
59,267
67,848
76,060
77,540
83,417
85,739
85,223
84,671
81,265
80,279
79,133
75,551
77,976
78,124
77,136
79,518
78,888
79,725
42,939
48,113
53,934
59,104
67,875
76,708
82,800
84,594
84,051
83,485
82,692
81,163
80,481
79,472
80,167
79,394
78,978
81,310
82,631
82,803
159,934
175,193
189,334
210,679
241,034
264,016
283,152
276,983
279,102
282,209
284,386
285,784
283,152
281,155
281,688
280,065
278,985
276,449
275,115
275,175
Monthly average for year and total for month- Shipments are the same as sales.
Book value, end of period.
End of period.
do liars, seasoilally adjust Bd
102,874
112,581
121,737
138,045
160,601
174,674
188,429
183,229
185,022
187,686
189,461
190,222
188,429
187,054
187,121
186,063
185,916
184,870
184,289
183,825
57,060
62,612
67,598
72,634
80,433
89,341
94,723
93,754
94,080
94,523
94,925
95,561
94,723
94,100
94,567
94,002
93,070
91,579
90,826
91,350
85,149
99,543
115,027
131,664
147,354
155,738
166,015
172,089
168,797
167,728
159,558
159,460
156,660
154,519
155,984
157,198
154,995
156,791
157,058
160,171
42,019
11,011
51,398
61,076
72,410
79,394
79,060
83,272
87,582
84,819
84,456
77,193
78,592
76,421
75,061
76,309
77,859
76,194
75,710
74,550
77,538
12,799
15,276
19,444
23,203
23,449
24,061
24,655
24,867
24,312
22,528
24,369
22,130
21,717
21,560
22,174
22,608
20,332
19,278
20,771
43,130
48,145
53,951
59,254
67,960
76,678
82,743
84,507
83,979
83,272
82,365
80,868
80,239
79,458
79,676
79,339
78,803
81,081
82,508
82,633
173,829
182,499
204,880
261,941
303,178
320,977
318,621
328,861
328,384
327,955
323,556
321,574
318,621
318,114
315,957
315,639
314,521
310,482
306,032
303,672
1.84
1.69
1.61
1.57
1.57
1.66
1.66
1.63
1.65
1.68
1.73
1.77
1.77
1.81
1.78
1.78
1.79
1.72
1.70
1.69
4
For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for
monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
21
PRICES
PRODUCER PRICES
In July, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.6 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished
consumer foods fell 1.5 percent, and prices of other finished consumer goods increased
1.5 percent. Prices of
capital equipment rose 0.5 percent from their June level.
INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)
320
INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)
180
180
160
160
140
140
120
1974
1982
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Fin shed goods
Intern ediate ma terials
Cnide mater als
Total
Foods
and
feeds >
Other
Total
Foodstuffs
and
feedstuffs
Other
FJraished go ads excluding consumer foo is
Period
Total
finished
goods
Consumer
foods
Consumer gc ods
Total
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
1
217.7
247.0
269.8
125.9
138.2
144.5
152.8
166.9
183.2
206.2
218.6
146.8
163.0
174.8
189.3
200.0
231.3
283.9
319.6
141.0
162.5
173.4
184.6
199.2
216.5
239.8
264.3
149.3
163.6
169.7
180.7
194.9
217.9
248.9
271.3
162.9
180.0
189.1
201.5
215.6
242.2
280.3
306.0
200.2
195.3
185.3
190.5
203.1
226.1
252.6
250.3
159.5
178.6
189.4
202.3
216.5
244.4
282.3
310.1
196.1
196.9
202.7
209.2
234.4
274.3
304.6
329.0
189.4
191.8
190.2
192.1
216.2
247.9
259.2
257.4
208.9
206.9
228.5
245.0
272.3
330.0
401.0
482.3
271.3
272.1
272.6
274.2
275.5
276.3
256.6
256.8
255.5
255.0
253.2
253.0
274.3
275.2
276.4
278.6
280.9
281.9
277.4
277.9
279.3
281.4
283.8
284.6
218.5
219.6
219.5
222.5
224.5
224.7
321.2
321.5
323.9
325.3
328.0
329.3
265.6
267.4
267.8
270.5
272.5
274.1
272.9
273.3
273.9
275.2
276.3
276.9
308.1
309.7
309.8
309.7
310.6
311.1
251.0
251.4
242.5
238.3
233.6
233.2
312.3
314.1
314.8
315.1
316.3
316.9
337.6
334.4
328.4
322.7
318.1
313.6
264.9
261.9
252.0
246.1
240.8
234.1
493.2
489.7
492.2
486.9
483.9
484.6
277.8
277.3
276.9
276.7
276.8
279.7
281.3
255.9
257.1
256.8
260.8
262.7
263.9
260.0
283.0
282.0
281.6
280.1
279.6
283.0
286.4
285.6
284.7
283.6
281.1
280.1
283.9
288.1
224.4
223.1
224.3
223.4
224.3
226.9
227.5
331.3
330.6
327.8
324.3
321.8
326.5
333.4
275.4
274.3
275.7
276.5
277.7
279.9
281.2
278.5
278.2
277.3
276.8
276.6
279.7
281.3
312.0
311.1
310.1
237.8
238.9
237.4
243.2
247.3
247.0
244.1
317.6
316.5
315.5
313.3
313.4
314.4
316.0
319.3
317.3
314.7
320.2
327.3
327.0
323.7
244.5
246.1
246.7
255.4
262.2
260.5
253.4
480.3
470.6
461.2
460.3
468.0
470.7
475.4
NOTE.—Data revised for March 1982.
er goo s
138.6
153.1
162.6
174.3
186.7
211.5
250.8
276.5
Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds.
22
Capital
equipment
139.3
156.2
166.1
177.7
190.7
213.3
247.8
273.3
195.9
1981: July
Durable
166.9
181.0
180.4
189.9
207.2
226.2
239.5
253.6
147.5
163.4
170.6
181.7
1974
1975
Nondurable
Total
308.5
308.8
309.7
311.0
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
CONSUMER PRICES
In July, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.6 percent, seasonally adjusted (also 0.6 percent
unadjusted). Food and beverages prices were unchanged, seasonally adjusted, and energy prices were up 1.4
percent, unadjusted.
INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)
320
INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALEI
320
UNADJUSTED
300
300
280
280
260
260
240
240
220
200
All ITEMS
180
160
140
120
1974
1975
1977
1976
1980
1979
1978
1981
SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
1982
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Transportatio n
Housing
Period
Rel. imp.6.
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981: July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
All
items *
Food
and
beverages
100.0
17.5
147.7
161.2
170.5
181.5
195.4
217.4
246.8
272.4
274.4
276.5
279.3
279.9
280.7
281.5
282.5
283.4
283.1
284.3
287.1
290.6
292.2
158.7
172.1
177.4
188.0
206.3
228.5
248.0
267.3
267.7
269.1
270.9
271.5
271.9
272.1
274.1
275.8
274.9
275.7
277.8
279.6
279.5
Total1
46.0
148.8
164.5
174.6
186.5
202.8
227.6
263.3
293.5
296.3
299.3
303.2
303.3
304.8
305.9
306.7
307.9
306.9
309.5
313.7
316.8
318.4
Home
purchase
Financing,
taxes,
and
insurance
Apparel
and
9.6
12.9
4.6
19.3
142.7
160.3
168.4
179.5
196.7
223.1
254.3
267.7
271.4
272.6
274.5
272.5
270.2
270.5
269.3
270.4
269.2
272.3
279.3
285.6
287.7
181.1
201.9
212.8
227.2
257.8
308.9
396.0
472.5
480.0
488.3
501.8
501.8
505.6
506.3
506.0
507.2
500.9
508.4
516.2
521.8
524.3
136.2
142.3
147.6
154.2
159.6
166.6
178.4
186.9
187.1
188.4
189.0
189.5
189.3
189.4
189.3
190.1
190.9
191.1
191.0
191.2
192.1
137.7
150.6
165.5
177.2
185.5
212.0
249.7
280.0
279.7
281.4
284.6
288.2
290.8
292.5
291.9
289.9
287.1
282.6
283.8
289.7
293.1
1
Includes items not shown separately.
^Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981.
3
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant, etc.
4
Estimated series. Finance includes financing, taxes, and insurance.
5
An experimental measure using a rental equivalence approach for homeownership costs. Effective with data for January 1983, the consumer price index for all urban consumers will incorporate
a rental equivalence measure.
Total1
upkeep
New
cars
3.5
117.5
127.6
135.7
142.9
153.8
166.0
179.3
190.2
192.8
192.8
193.7
194.0
194.6
196.1
196.0
194.5
194.6
196.0
196.5
197.9
198.8
Motor2
fuel
Medical
care
6.0
4.9
159.9
170.8
177.9
188.2
196.3
265.6
369.1
410.9
404.3
404.7
408.3
414.6
418.1
420.3
413.1
403.6
387.6
361.8
365.1
384.7
392.0
150.5
168.6
184.7
202.4
219.4
239.7
265.9
294.5
295.9
299.4
302.0
305.0
308.3
310.5
312.9
315.0
318.1
321.3
324.2
327.1
330.5
Bner-
gy"
All items
less food,
energy,
and home
purchase
All
items5
X-l
NSA
finance *
NSA
11.1
159.7
176.6
189.3
207.3
220.4
275.9
361.1
410.0
415.7
416.1
417.1
414.9
414.1
414.6
416.4
413.0
406.1
395.7
402.1
418.6
424.5
49.8
138.5
150.5
160.8
170.6
180.9
194.1
211.6
231.6
232.6
234.4
236.5
238.3
239.8
241.4
242.5
243.4
244.6
246.1
247.0
248.7
250.3
142.9
154.7
163.5
173.9
185.8
203.6
226.4
248.0
249.0
250.8
252.8
253.9
254.9
255.8
257.2
258.0
258.4
258.8
260.6
263.2
265.0
6
Relative importance, December 1981.
NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and
clerical workers.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
23
CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS
Period
Consum er goods
Total
finished
Foods
goods
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981: July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
11.8
18.3
6.6
3.7
6.9
9.2
5.5
~2.5
12.8
11.8
7.1
.4
.3
.2
.6
.5
.3
.5
-.2
-.1
-.1
.0
1.0
.6
Dec
1982: Jan
Peb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
1
22.5
13.0
6.9
11.7
7.4
7.5
1.4
.8
.1
-.5
-.2
7
-.1
1.1
.5
-.1
1.6
.7
.5
-1.5
Consum er goods
Total
finished
goods
Capital
equipment
Excluding foods
Percen change fro m 6 months earlier;
seas onally adjus ted annual r ates
Percen t change fro n 3 months earlier;
seas onally adjus ted annual r ates
Percen . change fro n preceding period;
seasonally adjusted *
7.4
5.3
20.5
6.7
6.0
6.7
8.5
17.5
14.2
8.5
.1
.2
.5
.8
.9
.3
.4
-.3
-.4
-.9
-.4
1.4
1.5
22.6
8.2
6.4
7.3
7.9
8.8
11.4
9.2
.6
.7
.1
1.0
.7
.6
.5
-.4
.5
.3
.4
.8
.5
Foods
4.7
6.3
5.0
3.4
4.3
5.1
5.5
5.4
2.6
.9
1.6
-.7
4.1
6.8
5.6
1.6
-2.5
-5.5
3.9
1.4
6.3
6.1
7.9
9.0
11.5
-1.2
Capital
equipment
Excluding foods
2.8
3.4
3.2
8.6
8.5
5.7
5.9
8.8
7.8
6.1
1.3
-1.4
-6.2
-6.3
.4
10.3
7.6
7.8
9.7
7.4
2.7
2.4
1.6
5.1
6.2
7.0
Consum er goods
Total
finished
goods
Foods
8.2
7.2
5.3
4.5
5.0
4.5
4.8
3.9
3.2
1.8
.9
2.5
2.5
4.8
5.2
2.6
1.8
-.1
-1.2
-.5
.2
1.0
4.6
7.6
8.8
3.2
Excluding foods
9.2
7.3
5.4
4.3
6.0
5.5
6.0
5.0
3.1
o
-2.6
5
1.8
Capital
equipment
9.5
9.1
7.8
8.1
8.2
7.7
7.5
5.2
6.0
4.5
3.9
4.3
4.3
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted).
NOTE.—Based on revised data lor March 1982.
CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted *
Housing
Period
All
items 2
Food
and
beverages
Total
2
Home
purchase
NSA
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
12.2
1979
1980
1981
1981: July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
13.3
12.4
1
7.0
4.8
6.8
9.0
8.9
1.1
.8
1.1
.4
.5
.4
.3
.2
-.3
.2
1.0
1.0
.6
12.0
6.2
.8
7.6
11.6
10.0
10.1
4.3
.6
.5
.7
.2
.1
.1
.7
.6
-.3
.3
.8
.6
-.0
13.4
7.5
5.4
7.6
9.9
15.2
13.7
10.2
1.6
1.0
1.3
.0
.5
.4
.3
.4
-.3
.8
1.4
1.0
.5
10.1
10.0
4.3
8.4
11.2
15.8
11.4
1.2
1.8
.4
.7
-.7
Q
.1
-.4
.4
-.4
1.2
2.6
2.3
.7
Tra.nsportaticm
1
Financing,
taxes,
and
insurance
An
parel
and
upkeep
Total 2
24
Motor3
fuel
Medical
care
14.6
7.6
1.6
11.2
14.7
27.5
23.3
17.9
2.7
1.7
2.8
0
.8
.1
-.1
.2
1.2
1.5
1.5
1.1
.5
Bner-
gy 4
All
items
X-l 6
NSA
NSA
8.7
2.3
4.5
4.2
3.2
5.5
6.8
3.6
.5
.7
.3
.3
-.1
.1
.1
.4
.4
.1
— .1
.1
.5
Annual changes are from December to December, not seasonally adjusted.
items not shown separately.
Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981.
*Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant, etc.
6
Estimated series. Finance includes financing, taxes, and insurance.
6
An experimental measure using a rental equivalence approach for homownership costs. Effective
2
Includes
3
New
cars
All items
less food,
energy,
and
home
purchase
and
13.3
9.8
8.8
4.3
7.7
18.2
14.7
11.0
1.0
.6
1.1
1.3
.9
.6
-.2
-.7
1.0
-1.6
.4
2.1
1.2
11.5
20.6
7.3 11.0
4.8
2.6
7.2
4.9
6.2
8.5
7.4 52.2
7.5 18.9
9.4
6.8
.4
-.5
.1
0
.5
.9
.2
1.5
.3
.8
.8
.5
-.1 -1.7
-.8 -2.3
.1 -4.0
.7
6.7
.3
.9
.7
5.4
.5
1.9
12.4
9.9
10.1
8.8
8.8
10.1
10.0
12.5
1.3
1.2
.9
1.0
1.1
.7
.8
.7
1.0
1.0
.9
.9
1.0
21.6
11.6
6.9
7.2
8.0
37.4
18.1
11.9
.4
.1
.2
.5
2
.1
.4
-.8
-1.7
2.6
1.6
4.1
1.4
11.1
6.3
6.8
5.5
6.9
7.5
9.9
9.4
1.0
.8
.9
.8
.6
.7
.5
.4
.5
.6
.4
.7
.6
Adde adum:
All item 3 percent
change (annual
ra te)
From
3
months
earlier
From
6
months
earlier
11.3
11.3
12.8
9.7
8.4
5.4
4.8
3.7
1.0
.8
3.7
9.3
10.8
9.6
9.3
10.4
10.5
9.8
9.1
7.2
6.0
3.2
2.8
3.7
5.1
5.7
11.1
6.6
5.1
6.3
7.9
10.8
10.8
8.5
.8
.9
.7
.6
.6
.5
.4
.1
.2
-.2
.6
1.0
.8
with data for January 1983, the consumer price index for all urban consumers will incorporate a
rental equivalence measure.
NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data beginning January 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received by farmers fell 0.7 percent in August and prices paid by farmers were unchanged in the month
ended August 15.
INDEX, 1977=100
180
INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SCALE]
(RATIO SCALE)
180
160
160
PRICES PAID
140
140
120
120
,--1
100
100
PRICES RECEIVED
80
80
60 I i i M l I i i i i i I i i i i i I
Ii i i i l Ii i i i iI
Ii i i i i Ii l li l Ii ll il Il i ili I
Iii i i i I
I
I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i IM
RATIO -I/
RATIO -I/
80
80
1982
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
ADVISERS
[1977 = 100]
Pri ces received by
Period
I rices
farm ers
All farm
products
Livestock and
products
All commodities,
services,
interest, taxes,
and wage rates 1
paid by faraiei s
Production
items, interest,
taxes, and wage
rates
Ratio 2
Production
items
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
105
101
102
100
115
132
134
138
117
105
102
100
105
116
125
134
94
98
101
100
124
147
144
143
81
89
95
100
108
123
138
150
81
89
95
100
109
125
139
150
91
97
100
108
125
138
148
130
113
107
100
106
107
97
92
1981: July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
142
138
133
130
130
128
138
130
120
120
121
122
147
146
145
140
138
133
150
151
151
150
150
150
150
150
150
149
149
148
148
148
148
147
147
145
95
91
88
87
87
85
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
132
133
133
135
139
137
136
135
126
123
120
123
125
125
124
121
137
142
145
147
151
149
148
148
154
154
155
155
155
156
156
156
153
153
154
154
155
155
155
154
148
151
150
150
150
151
151
151
86
86
86
87
90
88
87
87
1
Includes items not shown separately.
Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes,
and wage rates.
2
83
NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes
.ave been converted to a 1977 = 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
25
MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS
Ml declined slightly again in July while growth in the broader aggregates accelerated a little from the June pace.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS'(RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS Of DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)
400
400
200
200
1982
"SEA5ONAUY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Period
1974:
1975:
1976:
1977:
1978:
1979:
1980:
1981:
1981:
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July"
Ml
M2
Sum of currency,
demand deposits,
travelers' checks, and
other checkable deposits
(OCD) '
Ml plus overnight RPs
and Eurodollars,
MMMF balances
(general purpose and
broker/dealer), and
savings and small time
deposits
277.4
291.0
310.4
335.5
363.2
389.0
414.5
440.9
429.4
431.1
431.2
432.9
436.4
440.9
448.6
447.3
448.3
452.4
451.5
451.4
451.2
911.2
1,026.9
1,171.2
1,297.7
1,403.9
1,518.9
1,656.2
1,822.7
1,753.7
1,772.4
1,778.3
1,789.5
1,809.9
1,822.7
1,841.3
1,848.0
1,865.2
1,880.7
1,897.5
1,907.9
1,923.3
1
Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions.
2
Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months
earlier at an annual rate.
26
Percent change from pear or 6
IT onths earlier
M3
L
M2 plus large time
deposits, term RPs, and
institution-only MMMF
M3 plus other liquid
assets
1,064.3
1,166.2
1,305.0
1,464.6
1,629.0
1,779.4
1,963.1
2,188.1
2,102.5
2,126.0
2,138.1
2,151.1
2,174.7
2,188.1
2,204.3
2,215.0
2,235.8
2,258.1
2,279.3
2,295.9
2,320.2
1,249.8
1,376.6
1,531.4
1,724.3
1,938.9
2,153.9
2,370.4
2,642.8
2,530.4
2,559.7
2,577.2
2,600.0
2,629.3
2,642.8
2,667.4
2,689.9
2,716.8
2,752.3
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Ml
4.4
4.9
6.7
8.1
8.3
7.1
6.6
6.4
5.6
5.7
3.2
-.2
3.4
5.9
9.1
7.7
8.1
9.2
7.0
4.8
1.2
M2
5.6
12.7
14.1
10.8
8.2
8.2
9.0
10.1
10.8
11.5
9.3
7.8
9.1
9.6
10.2
8.7
10.0
10.5
9.9
9.6
9.1
MS
8.4
9.6
11.9
12.2
11.2
9.2
10.3
11.5
12.3
12.8
11.6
10.5
10.9
10.4
9.9
8.5
9.3
10.2
9.9
10.1
10.8
COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Period
Currency
Demand
deposits 1
Other
checkable
depos-
its
(OCD)
Overnight
repurchase
agreements
CRPs),
net, plus
overnight
Eurodollars
Money market
mutua Ifund
bala nces
General
purpose
and
broker/
dealer
NSA
Dec:
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
67.8
73.8
80.6
88.6
97.4
106.1
116.2
123.1
207.4
214.1
224.4
239.6
253.9'
262.2
267.2
236.4
1981:
July
Aug
Sept
Get
Nov
Dec
120.5
120.7
121.1
121.3
121.8
123.1
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June"
July f
123.8
124.6
125.1
126.3
127.4
128.4
128.8
0.4
.9
2.7
4.2
8.4
NSA
Institution
only
•
Savings
depos-
its
Small
denomination time
deposits 2
Large
denomination time
deposits 2
NSA
2.1
3.2
2.8
2.9
7.1
0.2
.4
.6
.9
3.1
9.3
Term
repurchase
agreements
(EPs)
Term
Eurodollars
(net)
NSA
NSA
290.0
340.9
396.5
454.1
533.9
652.6
751.7
854.7
144.4
129.8
118.2
145.2
194.6
221.8
257.9
300.3
8.4
9.0
15.0
21.0
27.5
30.2
Shortterm
Treasury
securities
oavings
bonds
Bankers'
acceptances
Cnm
vulu-
mereial
paper
8.0
63.2
9.7
37.8
35.4
13.1
18.7
29.9
42.9
48.4
66.7
67.2
71.7
76.4
80.3
79.6
72.3
67.7
53.6
77.1
81.1
89.9
99.3
128.5
156.7
176.5
11.8
21.4
26.5
31.8
39.7
50.1
48.0
51.7
62.9
79.2
97.0
98.1
104.2
16.9
26.9
77.0
18.8
24.1
26.3
35.0
38.1
34.4
61.9
151.2
13.9
33.7
337.6
387.7
451.7
490.4
479.9
421.7
398.9
343.6
236.7
236.6
234;7
235J •
235.7
236.4
68.1
69.5
71.2
71.6
74.7
77.0
42.3
43.1
39.6
36.1
36.9
38.1
112.8
122.2
130.6
137.3,
144.9
151.2
21.6
23.3
26.6
29.4
32.0
33.7
361.0
350.9
343.1
339.6
340.9
343.6
814.0
830.8
839.7
849.8
856.8
854.7
293.1
299.8
302.3
302.2
300.6
300.3
37.2
33.4
33.8
33.4
35.6
35.4
58.7
61.0
61.2
63.4
65.5
66.7
69.4
68.9
68.4
67.9
67.7
67.7
161.8
164.1
168.1
176.0
179.9
176.5
37.1
37.3
37.6
37.1
38.1
39.7
100.8
102.4
103.8
104.4
103.7
104.2
239.3
234.5
233.0
233.0
232.7
231.0
230.6
81.1
83.8
85.8
88.6
87.0
87.5
87.4
43.2
42.9
43.0
40.4
42.8
43.0
43.4
154.9
156.0
159.2
161.9
164.3
168.6
171.3
32.5
30.5
31.5
31.5
32.8
33.7
36.7
348.8
348.6
350.7
350.5
350.9
349.9
344.0
852.3
859.4
869.9
881.6
894.1
900.9
919.7
302.6
308.0
312.6
317.2
321.6
328.3
335.5
32.5
32.5
31.5
34.2
32.6
31.2
29.6
69.5
73.5
74.3
75.0
67.8
67.8
67.7
67.7
180.3
186.4
191.0
203.6
40.2
39.1
37.9
38.3
105.4
108.2
110.1
109.6
7.2
7.5
13.7
1
2
Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions.
Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than
$100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively.
10.6
8.4
8.8
NOTE,—See p. 26 for overall measures.
NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Total '
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981:
June
July
Aug...:
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
Automobile
Revolving
Total '
Automobile
Revolving
Total '
Automobile
495
172,765
180,083
210,740
257,600
297,668
324,777
306,076
336,341
46,514
52,420
63,743
75,641
87,981
93,901
83,454
94,404
33,213
36,956
43,934
87,596
105,125
120,174
128,068
140,135
163,276
172,675
189,179
222,138
254,589
286,396
304,628
316,447
46,019
49,444
53,278
60,437
69,245
79,186
82,977
84,809
31,243
35,616
41,764
81,348
96,090
111,546
126,653
135,438
9,489
7,408
21,561
35,462
43,079
38,381
1,448
19,894
29,223
28,290
28,323
29,406
26,836
27,370
26,656
7,515
8,059
8,396
9,000
7,490
8,073
7,352
12,658
11,706
11,663
12,263
11,753
11,379
11,592
27,192
26,739
25,895
26,431
25,834
26,770
26,689
7,366
7,003
6,537
6,921
6,466
7,509
7,284
11,651
11,590
11,486
11,692
11,429
11,358
11,533
2,031
1,551
2,428
2,975
1,002
600
-33
564
68
26,888
27,150
27,462
28,684
29,197
29,737
7,474
7,283
7,183
7,871
8,429
8,182
11,070
11,730
12,143
12,416
12,528
13,361
26,445
27,075
26,472
27,509
27,798
28,388
7,595
7,339
7,211
7,638
7,470
7,527
11,266
11,885
11,836
11,917
11,991
12,854
443
75
990
'Includes "mobile home" and "other," not shown separately.
Net char ge in amount ou standing
Insta Iment credit liquidated
Insta Iment credit extc nded
1,175
1,399
1,349
2,976
10,465
15,204
18,736
14,715
477
Revolving
1,970
1,340
2,170
6,248
9,035
8,628
9,595
1,415
4,697
149
1,007
1,056
1,859
2,079
1,024
116
177
571
324
21
59
-121
-56
-28
233
959
655
-196
-155
307
499
537
507
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
27
BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES
Growth in commercial bank loans and investments in July was at a slightly lower rate than in June.
1,400
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS'(RATIO SCALE)
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,200
1,000
1,000
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS'(RATIO SCALE)
1,800
1,600 (-ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS
800
800
600
600
LOANS AND LEASES
400
400
INVESTMENT IN OTHER SECURITIES
-V
200
180
160
200
180
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
1974
1975
1976
1982
1981
•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, AVERAGES OF WEDNESDAY FIGURES
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Al I commercial ban b 1
Loans and leases
Period
Total loans
and
investments
Total 2
U.S. Treasury
securities
82.2
100.8
99.8
93.8
94.5
Total
Nonborrowed
Required
Total
Seasonal
110.0
111.0
30.89
31.43
32.99
34.85
36.04
38.49
40.21
558
874
1,473
1,617
636
13
12
54
134
82
116
53
350.9
356.6
360.6
363.7
363.4
358.0
116.4
115.6
113.2
112.5
110.3
111.0
222.3
223.8
225.6
228.7
231.2
231.4
39.73
39.81
40.31
40.12
40.15
40.53
38.05
38.39
38.86
38.94
39.49
39.89
39.39
39.52
39.90
39.84
39.81
40.21
1,679
1,417
1,451
1,179
661
636
248
220
222
152
79
53
360.3
365.5
370.0
373.1
378.8
383.4
386.7
114.1
115.1
114.4
116.6
116.3
115.8
116.5
231.5
232.0
233.1
234.0
234.9
235.9
235.9
41.28
40.93
41.09
41.18
41.33
41.44
41.43
39.76
39.14
39.53
39.61
40.21
40.24
40.73
40.86
40.62
40.73
40.91
40.97
41.13
41.11
1,526
1,713
1,611
1,581
1,105
1,205
670
75
132
174
167
237
239
223
915.1
973.9
1981: July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1,302.8
1,312.2
1,317.8
1,324.0
1,327.5
1,316.3
964.0
972.7
979.0
982.8
986.1
973.9
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June p
July"
1,320.0
1,332.4
1,342.5
1,352.6
1,361.9
1,368.7
1,376.1
974.5
985.2
995.0
1,002.0
1,010.7
1,017.0
1,023.7
Other
securities
31.03
31.65
32.61
34.22
34.90
37.32
39.89
189.6
190.9
210.9
245.9
291.2
326.8
358.0
28
Borrc wings
(millions of dollars,
unad usted)
re serve
31.16
31.70
33.18
35.08
36.37
39.01
40.53
517.4
555.0
632.5
747.0
849.9
averages of Wednesday figures.
loans to commercial banks in the United States.
Data are averages of daily figures.
adjust*A
for changes m
requirenaents
3
145.6
148.8
159.3
172.8
191.5
214.4
231.4
745.2
804.6
891.5
1,013.5
1,135.9
1,239.6
1,316.3
1
Data are
2
Excludes
3
R<jserves
Investrinents
Commercial
and industrial
loans
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
1975:
1976:
1977:
1978:
1979:
1980:
1981:
Depo itory institutions
127
62
NOTE.—Beginning Dec. 1981, banks loans and investments and reserves aggregates have been
reduced because of shifts from U.S. banking offices to International Banking Facilities (IBFs).
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL
CORPORATE BUSINESS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Sources
Uses
External
C edit market fu nds
Period
Total
Internal *
Total
Total
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1980:
I
II
m
IV
1981: I
H
:.
m
IV
1982: I p
165.8
208.7
202.9
167.9
223.4
264.2
320.4
366.7
336.2
377.1
359.6
265.4
325.4
394.3
327.0
411.9
408.5
360.9
332.7
85.0
91.7
85.6
80.8
117.0
117.3
119.7
134.2
156.1
171.9
190.6
196.8
229.9
194.9
192.9
199.2
200.3
222.0
228.2
236.4
232.9
226.7
48.3
89.2
108.1
148.5
176.1
139.3
147.2
164.7
72.5
126.3
194.0
105.0
183.7
172.1
128.0
106.0
Loans and
short-term
paper
Securities
and
mortgages
57.6
72.9
82.8
41.7
64.3
84.6
93.2
104.8
106.1
107.3
126.7
70.1
93.3
134.3
70.4
145.3
121.3
92.2
126.3
1
Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital
consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained
40.7
16.9
36.9
39.1
49.7
48.0
48.1
45.8
39.5
66.5
34.2
65.9
62.3
63.5
74.1
56.2
51.7
9.4
19.3
47.7
36.0
43.6
-8.0
16.3
36.5
47.4
65.3
39.7
73.1
60.8
7.8
29.8
60.2
14.2
93.6
111.9
72.9
78.6
Total
Other 2
23.2
44.0
34.5
6.5
24.9
23.5
55.3
71.4
33.2
39.9
37.9
2.4
33.0
59.6
34.5
38.5
50.7
35.8
-20.3
149.1
191.9
190.1
150.9
201.4
228.5
290.9
340.6
291.7
324.8
310.6
224.8
289.1
342.4
300.1
350.8
345.8
302.5
277.6
Capital
expenditures 3
99.0
121.5
137.9
109.7
148.3
174.1
199.2
220.9
216.9
258.7
224.1
212.0
207.1
224.3
231.6
265.4
281.8
256.1
228.4
Increase in
financial
assets
50.1
70.5
52.2
41.2
53.0
54.4
91.7
119.7
74.9
66.1
86.5
12.8
82.0
118.2
68.5
85.4
64.0
46.4
49.2
Discrepancy
(sources less
uses)
16.7
16.7
12.9
17.0
22.0
35.7
29.5
26.2
44.5
52.2
49.0
40.7
36.3
51.9
26.8
61.1
62.7
58.3
55.1
3
Plant and equip
equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S.
Government.
Souree: Board of
* ™Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S.
Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL
CORPORATIONS
[Billions of dollars, except as noted]
Current liabilitit s
Curren assets
End of period
Total
Cash
Governsecurities
SEC series: 2
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
FTC-FRB series: 3
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1980: HI
IV
1981:
I
n
m
IV
1
492.3
529.6
599.3
697.8
790.7
53.3
59.0
66.3
71.1
735.4
759.0
826.8
902.1
1,030.0
1,200.9
1,281.6
1,361.4
1,254.9
1,281.6
1,321.2
1,317.4
1,349.2
1,361.4
73.2
82.1
88.2
95.8
104.5
116.1
121.0
124.5
113.4
121.0
120.5
118.5
118.3
124.5
50.2
7.7
11.0
10.6
12.8
12.3
11.1
19.0
23.4
17.6
16.3
15.6
17.3
15.8
16.4
17.3
17.0
17.7
16.0
15.8
Notes and
accounts
receivable
3
Total
Notes and
accounts
payable
Other
current
liabilities
Net
working
capital
ratio '
211.3
220.5
282.9
340.3
402.3
93.6
105.5
92.7
110.7
128.1
1.615
43.8
55.8
66.4
71.7
304.9
326.0
375.6
450.9
530.4
187.4
322.1
193.3
200.4
225.7
263.9
313.6
203.6
223.7
246.9
260.3
1.625
1.595
1.548
1.491
265.8
272.1
292.8
324.7
383.8
456.8
491.2
512.3
478.7
491.2
507.3
507.4
519.7
512.3
319.5
315.9
342.4
374.8
426.9
501.7
525.4
565.3
524.5
525.4
542.8
540.0
557.2
565.3
65.9
69.9
80.1
89.2
98.5
110.8
126.7
143.4
121.9
126.7
133.6
133.7
138.1
143.4
453.4
451.6
494.7
549.4
665.5
809.1
877.2
962.3
850.5
877.2
910.9
908.1
951.1
962.3
269.8
264.2
281.9
313.2
373.7
456.3
498.3
541.3
477.2
498.3
504.0
500.8
529.1
541.3
183.6
187.4
212.8
236.2
291.7
352.8
378.9
421.0
373.4
378.9
406.9
407.2
422.0
421.0
282.0
307.4
332.2
352.7
364.6
391.8
404.4
399.1
404.3
404.4
410.3
409.3
398.1
399.1
1.622
1.681
1.672
1.642
1.548
1.484
1.461
1.415
1.475
1.461
1.450
1.451
1.419
1.415
206.1
221.1
248.2
288.5
Total current assets divided by total current liabilities.
Based on data from Statistic* of Income, Department of the Treasury.
Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, i nd Trade Corporations, Federal Trade Commission.
2
Other
current
assets
Inven-
35.0
NOTE,—SEC series not available after 1974.
See Federal Reserve Bulletin, ,luVv' 1978, for details regarding the series.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Trade Commission, and
Securities and Exchange Commission.
29
INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS
Interest rates fell further in August.
PER :ENT
16
J
PER ANNUA
*
:
n /y-»
-
|
UA\,
> u'
jfi
' \
i
,\ /
(V !
DISC OUNT
1
.•
R ME
FEE ERAL
1
RES ERVE X^r
BAN K OF
J: l '
NEW YORK M l
I:
12
.* \ :
i, —11
iH,
1
—
CORPORATE f wa BONDS
(M00[>r$
,
^-.
N
1
.*
*~-* •"••>
A/\
~"~\
^,A ^
IA\ L
vV
1
(
1
....
-\/ V
4 •I
11 1
11 111
;
;
•
.
14
•
l\
: ;
: :.* \
\
)L
!:- _
12
1
ilA
;
'•:
•ii]l
:1
10
'
;
g
:;
-J/
I
1
11M 111 M i
1974
^-^
/
£
• 1
^
K
i
I;
1
l
~
TREASL IRYSILL
/'
~
1
|~
xp*
!
,S
V 1
!
./ L
1 / :1
1
/ /
t
:\ /l j
Il
^ r/,
S
M'
n
•:
1
K \
/\
/ •*•
16
s
1 1 ll1l
I
/
1 1 I1
1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 11 1 111 1 11
1 i 1 M f SL 1 1
1978
1979
1977
1976
1975
1.1 II ...
1 11
1 1 1 din
980
,i i i i i
SOURCE; SEE TABLE BELOw
1 1 1 1 IN 4
19 82
1981
COUNCIL Of ECONOMI : ADVISERS
[Percent per annum]
U.S.I 'reasury
Period
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981:
4.989
5.265
7.221
Aug
Sept
1982:
3-month
bills *
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Augp.
Week ended:
1982: July 17
24
31
Aug 7
14
21
28
Sept 4
1
Rate
a
10.041
11.506
14.077
15.612
14.951
13.873
11.269
10.926
12.412
13.780
12.493
12.821
12.148
12.108
11.914
9.006
11.797
11.140
10.559
9.633
10.025
8.616
7.748
8.604
security yields
Constant nimturities 2
3-year
10-year
High-grade
municipal
bonds
(Standard &
Poor's) 3
16.22
15.50
13.11
13.66
14.64
14.73
14.13
14.18
13.77
14.48
14.00
12.62
7.61
7.42
8.41
9.44
11.46
13.91
14.94
15.32
15.15
13.39
13.72
14.59
14.43
13.86
13.87
13.62
14.30
13.95
13.06
5.56
5.90
6.39
8.51
11.23
12.13
12.86
12.67
11.71
12.77
13.16
12.81
12.72
12.45
11.99
12.42
12.11
11.12
8.43
8.02
8.73
9.63
11.94
14.17
14.89
15.49
15.40
14.22
14.23
15.18
15.27
14.58
14.46
14.26
14.81
14.61
13.73
14.08
13.53
13.72
13.26
13.24
12.07
12.00
13.93
13.58
13.85
13.63
13.57
12.60
12.51
12.24
11.87
11.94
11.75
11.73
10.63
10.37
14.65
14.32
14.39
14.22
14.14
13.48
13.15
6.77
6.69
8.29
9.72
11.55
14.44
16.00
6.49
on new issues within period; bank-discount basis.
Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department.
3
Weekly data are Wednesday figures.
4
Prior to November I , 1979, data are for 4-6 months paper.
^Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week.
30
Corporate
Aaa bonds
(Moody's)
Prime
commercial
paper,
mont s
"5.34
5.61
4
7.99
10.91
12.29
14.76
16.62
15.93
14.72
11.96
12.14
13.35
14.27
13.47
13.64
13.02
13.79
13.00
10.80
4
13.28
12.11
12.24
11.44
11.67
9.98
10.10
Discount rate
(N.Y. F.K.
Bank)
5
5.50
5.46
7.46
10.28
11.77
13.41
14-14
14-14
14-14
14-13
13-12
12-12
12-12
12-12
12 12
12-12
12 12
12-11%
11% 10
12-12
12-1 1%
11%-11%
1134-11
11-11
11 10%
10&-10
10-
Prime rate
charged by
banks 5
6.84
6.83
9.06
12.67
15.27
18.87
2034-20)4
2034 1934
1934-18
18-16
15%-15f4
15^-15%
15% 16)4
1634-1634
16)4 1634
16)4-1634
1634 1634
1634-1534
1534-1334
New-home
mortgage
yields
(FHLBB) 6
9.00
9.02
9.56
10.78
12.66
14.70
15.27
15.29
15.65
16.38
15.87
15.25
15.12
15.67
15.84
15.89
15.40
15.68
1634-1634
16)4 16
16-15)4
1534-15
15-15
15-14
14-1334
1334-
6
Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as
well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Kates beginning
January 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates.
Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, FederalH.
Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.
COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS
Stock prices declined in early August and then rose sharp!/.
INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965=50
INDEX, DEC 31,1965=50
80
80
50
40
30
30
1974
1982
PERCENT
1 20
PERCENT
20
EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS
(S&P)
15 -
10
5 -
I
1974
1975
1976
I
I
1978
1977
1979
1980
1981
Common stock price s l
Neiv York Stock Ex change indexes 0 lee. 31, 1965-50)«
Period
Composite
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981: Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug".
Week ended:
1982: July 17
24
31
Aug 7
14
21
28
Industrial
Transportalon
Utility
Finance
Dow-Jones
industrial3
average
Standard &
Poor's
composite
index (194143 = 10)4
Common sl ock yields
(perce n
tr
Dividendprice ratio
39.57
41.09
43.50
47.34
60.61
72.61
36.97
40.92
39.22
38.20
37.35
38.91
52.94
55.25
56.65
61.42
64.25
73.52
974.92
894.63
820.23
844.40
891.41
932.92
102.01
98.20
96.02
103.01
118.78
128.05
86.72
78.07
78.93
80.86
81.70
73.27
63.67
65.65
67.68
68.27
40.22
38.17
38.87
40.73
40.22
73.76
69.38
72.56
76.47
74.74
926.25
853.38
853.25
860.44
878.28
129.63
118.27
119.80
122.92
123.79
67.91
66.16
63.86
66.97
67.07
63.10
62.82
62.91
76.85
74.78
71.51
75.59
75.97
71.59
71.37
70.98
62.04
59.09
55.19
57.91
56.84
53.07
53.40
53.98
39.30
38.32
38.57
39.20
39.40
37.34
37.20
38.19
70.99
70.50
69.08
71.44
69.16
63.19
61.59
62.84
853.41
833.15
812.33
844.96
846.72
804.37
818.41
832.11
117.28
114.50
110.84
116.31
116.35
109.70
109.38
109.65
3.77
4.62
5.28
5.47
5.26
5.20
5.16
5.69
5.65
5.54
5.57
5.95
6.06
6.28
5.99
5.97
6.28
6.31
6.32
63.25
63.83
62.28
61.10
59.13
62.34
67.02
71.91
72.56
70.73
69.16
66.56
69.93
75.77
54.31
53.67
52.54
51.61
49.78
53.40
58.63
37.51
37.82
36.87
36.56
36.37
38.81
40.26
61.27
62.33
61.54
61.10
59.27
62.68
66.58
826.69
830.86
816.17
804.43
780.37
832.19
885.37
110.20
111.27
108.47
106.36
102.96
108.77
116.94
6.24
6.19
6.38
6.48
6.69
6.30
5.81
54.46
53.69
53.70
58.32
68.10
74.02
60.44
57.86
58.23
64.76
78.70
85.44
75.24
68.37
69.40
71.49
71.81
'
1
Average of daily closing prices.
Hncludes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE.
3
Includes 30 stocks.
4
Includes 500 stocks.
5
Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earningsprice ratios based on prices at end of quarter.
1982
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCES; NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION
Earningsprice ratio
8.90
10.79
12.03
13.46
12.66
11.94
13.13
12.45
NOTE.—AH data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation.
31
FEDERAL FINANCE
FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT
In the first 10 months of fiscal year 1982, there was a budget deficit of $94.2 billion, compared to a deficit of
$59.1 billion a year earlier.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
800
800
700
BUDGET SURPLUS W OR DEFICIT (-
1974
1975
1976
1978
1977
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
FISCAL YEARS
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
[Billions of dollars]
Period
Fiscal year or period:
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
,
Transition quarter
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982 *
1983 (estimates):
First Concurrent Resolution, June 23, 1982
Mid-Session Review, July 1982 *
Cumulative total, first 10 months:
Fiscal year 1981
Fiscal year 1982
Budget
receipts
Budget
surplus or
deficit (— )
Off-budget
outlays
Total
surplus or
deficit (— )
Federal debt end of period)
Gross
Held by the
public
207.3
230.8
263.2
279.1
298.1
81.2
355.6
399.6
463.3
517.1
599.3
622.1
230.7
245.6
267.9
324.2
364.5
94.2
400.5
448.4
491.0
576.7
657.2
731.0
-23.4
-14.8
-4.7
-45.2
-66.4
-13.0
-44.9
-48.8
-27.7
-59.6
-57.9
-108.9
.1
1.4
8.1
7.3
1.8
8.7
10.4
12.5
14.2
21.0
19.3
-23.4
-14.9
-6.1
53.2
-73.7
-14.7
-53.6
-59.2
-40.2
-73.8
78.9
-128.2
437.3
468.4
486.2
544.1
631.9
646.4
709.1
780.4
833.8
914.3
1,003.9
1,137.1
323.8
343.0
346.1
396.9
480.3
498.3
551.8
610.9
644.6
715.1
794.4
922.4
665.9
646.5
769.8
761.5
-103.9
115.0
14.9
-129.9
1,273.5
1,048.4
491.3
513.1
550.5
607.4
-59.1
-94.2
16.9
12.4
76.0
-106.7
979.4
1,094.6
779.4
886.1
1
Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1983 Budget, Office of Management and Budget,
July 30, 1982.
32
Budget
outlays
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget, except as noted.
FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND
OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
In the first 10 months of fiscal year 1982, budget receipts were $21.8 billion higher than a year earlier and
budget outlays were $56.9 billion higher.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
400
BILLIONS OF. DOLLARS
400
BUDGET RECEIPTS
300
200
200
100
100
CORPORATION INCOME TAXES
-.1.
0
600
600
BUDGET OUTLAYS
500
500
400
400
NONDEFENSE
\
300
300
200
200
100
100
1974
1976
1975
1977
1978
1979
1982
1981
1980
1983
FISCAL YEARS
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
[Billions of dollars]
Judget outlays
Budget r ?ceipts
Nation,»1 defense
Period
Fiscal year or period:
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
Transition quarter
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982 J
1983 '
Cumulative total, Erst 10 months:
Fiscal year 1981
Fiscal year 1982
Total
:
Individual
income
taxes
Corpoincome
taxes
Other
Total
Defense,
military
54.9
60.0
65.7
64.6
61.1
49.9
58.3
80.4
91.4
105.7
116.1
125.0
34.0
143.0
158.6
179.8
208.4
252.2
273.7
294.4
230.7
245.6
267.9
324.2
364.5
94.2
400.5
448.4
491.0
576.7
657.2
731.0
761.5
76.6
74.5
77.8
85.6
89.4
22.3
97.5
105.2
117.7
135.9
159.8
187.7
221.5
73.2
77.6
84.9
87.9
21.9
95.6
103.0
115.0
132.8
156.1
182.8
215.9
50.9
42.6
207.4
225.9
550.5
607.4
132.2
155.1
129.2
151.4
207.3
230.8
263.2
279.1
298.1
81.2
355.6
399.6
463.3
517.1
599.3
622.1
646.5
94.7
103.2
32.2
36.2
119.0
122.4
131.6
38.8
157.6
181.0
217.8
244.1
285.9
298.5
293.8
38.6
40.6
41.4
491.3
513.1
233.1
244.7
8.5
1
Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1983 Budget, Office of Management and Budget,
July 30, 1982.
Total
75.1
International
affairs
Health and
income
security
10.7
11.1
11.2
12.1
80.0
90.4
104.8
134.3
158.9
41.0
174.5
187.4
207.1
248.3
291.1
322.9
337.8
9.3
8.2
241.8
268.0
4.7
4.1
5.7
6.9
5.6
2.2
4.8
5.9
6.1
Interest
Other
20.6
48.8
22.8
28.0
30.9
34.5
38.0
44.0
52.6
64.5
82.5
99.9
111.1
53.9
51.6
66.5
76.1
21.5
85.7
105.9
107.5
117.3
112.7
109.3
79.0
68.8
85.0
98.3
91.2
7.2
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.
33
FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS
In the second quarter of 1982, according to preliminary estimates, Federal receipts rose $4.6 billion (annual rate)
and expenditures rose $7.7 billion, yielding a deficit of $122.4 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
600
500
500
400
400
300
300
50
50
SURPLUS
"" ua *^m
DEFICIT
^
-50
o^^s^ m
I 11Illl
i
-100
•II
I
^^^^ """"
^^
-150
1975
1974
1977
1976
1978
1980
1979
1981
I 1
1
-50
-100
-150
i982
CALENDAR YEARS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF
COM/
MERC
E
COUNCIL C>F EC DNO WIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Federal (jovernment expenditur BS
Federal Governme nt receipts
Period
Total
Fiscal year:
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
Personal
tax and
nontax
receipts
414.3
166.3
186.5
480.9
525.2
222.6
250.2
614.7
291.8
375.2
170.1
194.9
365.9
Corporate
profits
tax
accruals
58.9
67.3
76.1
70.1
70.9
Indirect
business
tax and
nontax
accruals
Contributions for
social
insurance
Total
Purchases
of goods
and
services
Transfer
ments
Grantsin~aid to
State
and
local
governments
Subsidies
Net
interest
paid
411.2
450.3
495.6
576.9
666.6
139.8
150.4
164.2
189.8
218.0
169,9
182.2
201.8
239.4
279.2
66.4
74.7
79.1
86.6
90.1
118.5
137.2
159.5
174.1
421.1
461.0
204.3
688.2
143.4
153.6
168.3
197.2
228.9
172.8
185.6
209.2
251.4
286.6
174.0
179.8
199.9
615.4
639.9
193.3
207.0
266.3
271.9
208.4
659.7
667.5
698.2
727.4
217.0
218.2
230.0
250.5
274.0
276.7
295.1
300.7
214.9
216.1
728.3
736.0
249.7
244.5
303.2
29.1
67.5
35.2
77.3
42.4
80.5
53.1
88.7
87.7
71.9
88.9 ' 53.3
56.0
92.7
66.3
90.2
68.3
90.6
86.3
74.0
79.0
83.6
79.6
83.0
85.0
82.6
24.5
27.2
116.2
133.3
29.2
34.6
55.7
153.1
170.4
196.3
25.0
28.1
29.4
38.9
58.5
40.2
47.7
57.5
61.5
57.8
57.2
48.7
50.2
28.5
33.6
40.6
50.6
66.2
or deficit
current
surplus of
Government
enterprises
Wage
accruals
less
disbursements
national
income
and
product
accounts
6.9
9.8
9.8
10.5
13.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
-45.4
-36.1
-14.8
-51.9
-51.9
8.2
9.5
9.2
11.7
13.1
.0
.0
.0
-.0
.0
13.6
12.3
12.2
13.7
13.0
13.6
12.7
11.8
.0
.0
.0
.0
.2
-45.9
-29.5
-16.1
-61.4
-60.0
-73.1
-65.2
-39.7
-40.5
-58.0
.1
Calendar year:
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1980: HI
IV
1981: I
II
493.6
540.7
628.2
542.4
574.6
230.6
257.5
298.1
260.1
274.4
m
620.0
627.0
640.2
625.7
286.4
297.0
307.9
300.9
I
H"
609.0
299.9
303.6
IV
1982:
431.6
613.6
61.6
71.3
74.2
70.3
67.3
68.0
72.8
76.1
65.6
68.4
59.1
45.6
43.7
202.8
206.1
509.7
602.1
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) Department of the Treasury,
and Office of Management and Budget.
34
312.0
— .1
-101.7
-.2
.0
-119.3
-122.4
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
[1967 = 100]
Consumt r prices (imadjusted)
Indu itrial prod action (sesisonally adju sted)
Period
United
States
117.8
130.5
138.2
146.1
152.5
147.0
151.0
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981 "
1981: Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar *
Apr"
May '
p
June
July'
153.6
151.6
149.1
146.3
143.4
140.7
142.9
141.7
140.2
139.2
138.2
138.1
Canada
Japan
France
Germany
140.3
148.5
152.2
157.7
163.9
182.0
189.7
201.1
217.7
232.5
239.3
139
149
152
154
161
160
157
157
160
160
160
162
156
156
157
156
159
137.1
149.1
152.0
154.1
161.8
162.3
160.0
161
161
161
160
158
161
163
164
163
163
166.0
162.7
164.8
164.8
162.3
160.0
157.4
155.3
153.8
153.5
151.6
149.6
151.0
234.1
243.1
246.7
246.4
244.4
244.1
244.4
245.1
240.7
236.4
240.2
United
Kingdom
United
States *
Canada
Japan
France
Germany
127.6
143.5
145.1
147.9
157.6
166.5
162.6
114.3
117.4
123.0
127.0
131.7
123.1
118.2
161.2
170.5
181.5
195.4
217.4
246.8
272.4
160.1
172.1
185.9
178.9
196.1
214.5
202.5
243.5
273.9
205.8
224.9
243.0
252.3
261.3
282.3
296.2
144.2
150.4
155.9
160.2
166.8
175.9
127.5
117.8
163.1
154.7
163.6
158.9
156.7
164.1
161.4
161.3
160.4
153.6
119.0
121.0
119.1
118.3
118.1
119.0
119.4
120.0
121.4
276.5
279.3
279.9
280.7
281.5
278.2
280.2
283.0
285.4
286.7
294.7
299.5
300.7
299.8
299.8
282.5
283.4
283.1
284.3
287.1
290.6
292.2
288.7
300.7
299.8
300.4
302.9
303.8
303.8
Italy
'Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers.
221.0
292.1
295.8
297.5
301.5
304.5
233.9
259.1
294.2
332.7
186.4
187.7
188.6
189.2
190.1
190.7
192.3
192.8
193.1
194.0
195.2
197.1
197.6
339.0
342.9
347.1
350.3
352.4
356.0
359.6
363.8
368.2
371.1
373.7
306.1
Italy
186.8
218.1
255.2
286.2
328.5
398.0
472.4
481.0
487.7
497.5
506.0
511.1
517.7
524.4
529.1
533.9
539.8
545.2
553.4
United
Kingdom
216.5
252.4
292.4
316.6
359.0
423.6
473.9
480.8
483.5
487.9
493.0
496.1
499.0
499.1
503.5
513.6
517.3
518.9
518.9
Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, Office of Planning and Research, in International Economic Indicators.
U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Men handise expo rts '
Period
Total
domestic
and
foreign
exports
Geileral impon s
Domestic exports
Total
2
Food,
beverages, and
tobacco
Crude
materials and
fuels
Merchandise trade )alance
Merc mndise im] orts
Manufactured
goods
Total 2
Food,
beverages, and
tobacco
Crude
materials and
fuels
3
Exports
Manufactured
goods
Total
(c.i.f.
value)
4,602
4,257
5,398
6,379
8,360
9,352
10,427
9,240
8,823
11,042
13,368
15,504
18,519
21,415
less
imports
(customs
value)
Exports
(f.a.s.)
less
imports
(f.a.s.)
Exports
(f.a.8.)
less
imports
(c.i.f.)
I"\a.s. valu e
Monthly average:
1974*
1975'
1976*
1977*
1978*
1979*
1980
8,174
8,971
9,602
10,103
11,973
15,155
18,386
8,053
8,842
9,456
9,912
11,753
14,869
18,036
1,269
1,399
1,436
1,330
1,717
2,049
2,534
1,317
1,266
1,341
1,548
1,746
2,352
2,810
5,294
5,913
6,437
6,679
7,873
9,716
11,991
8,547
8,209
10,290
12,533
14,563
17,455
20,406
892
827
991
1,186
1,312
1,478
1,546
2,672
2,716
3,457
4,463
4,325
5,949
7,831
-372
762
-688
-2,430
-2,590
-2,300
-2,020
1,065
148
-1,440
3,265
-3,530
3,364
-3,030
Customs value
1981
19,473
19,075
2,767
2,752
12,857
21,748
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
19,289
19,031
19,551
19,163
19,153
18,885
18,919
18,720
19,108
18,733
18,751
18,377
2,549
2,470
2,772
2,920
2,675
2,515
2,430
2,662
2,795
2,863
2,872
2,934
13,060
12,991
12,947
12,458
12,590
12,318
20,114
23,242
21,274
23,077
22,508
19,746
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
18,737
18,704
18,602
17,843
18,218
18,822
18,027
18,350
18,341
18,127
17,441
17,807
18,386
17,638
2,279
2,482
2,673
2,506
2,478
2,421
1,896
3,076
3,434
3,151
2,898
2,912
2,797
2,617
12,463
11,876
11,822
11,428
11,837
12,563
12,590
22,829
19,090
20,349
17,387
20,558
21,310
19,559
1981:
1
Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginning
January 1978.
2
Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.
3
Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.
NOTE.—Imports on c.i.f. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods.
1,529
1,390
1,479
1,393
1,583
1,413
1,542
1,340
1,154
1,529
1,435
1,569
1,567
1,389
7,739
11,873
22,779 -2,275
-3,306
6,576
7,779
7,411
7,642
7,468
6,174
11,622
13,361
11,971
13,127
12,826
11,414
21,074
24,398
22,317
24,194
23,568
20,699
-825
-4,212
-1,724
-3,914
-3,356
-861
-1,784
-5,367
-2,766
-5,031
4,415
-1,814
8,269
5,845
5,717
5,033
4,906
6,198
6,645
12,584
11,527
12,402
10,337
13,219
12,899
10,982
23,870
19,900
21,237
18,165
21,509
22,259
20,449
-4,092
-387
-1,747
-456
-2,340
-2,488
-1,532
-5,134
-1,197
-2,635
-322
3,291
-3,437
-2,422
Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Islands exports are reflected only in the figures for total domestic and foreign exports and trade balance.
* Data for 1974-79 for total domestic and foreign exports, total general imports, and trade balance include trade of the Virgin Islands.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census-
35
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
The balance on current account shifted to a surplus of $1.2 billion in the first quarter from a deficit of $0.9 billion
in the fourth quarter of 1981, as the merchandise trade deficit fell to $6.1 billion from $9.2 billion in the fourth
quarter. In the second quarter, the merchandise trade deficit fell further, to $5.1 billion.
BILLIONS Of DOLLARS
10
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
10
BALANCE ON GOODS/
AND SERVICES
\
v\/
/
-15
19B2
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits (—)]
Merchandise '
z
In vestment incoroe 3
military
transactions
transportation
services,
net 3
Balance
on goods
and
services 1
-3,158
-3,184
-2,792
-2,558
-3,293
-3,125
-2,429
-940
-231
3,184
3,986
4,598
4,711
5,224
5,955
5,690
7,144
7,702
11,021
9,309
22,893
9,382
-9,451
-9,743
5,095
8,303
11,079
Net
Period
Remittances,
pensions,
and other
unilateral
transfers 1
Balance
on
current
account
Exports
Imports
Net
balance
Receipts
Payments
71,410
98,306
107,088
114,745
120,816
142,054
184,473
224,237
236,254
-70,499
- 103,649
-98,041
-124,051
-151,689
-175,813
-211,819
-249,575
-264,143
911
-5,343
9,047
-9,306
-30,873
-33,759
-27,346
-25,338
— 27,889
21,808
27,587
25,351
29,286
32,179
42,245
64,129
72,686
85,945
-9,655
-12,084
-12,564
-13,311
-14,217
-21,680
-32,914
-42,776
-52,908
12,153
15,503
12,787
15,975
17,962
20,565
31,215
29,910
33,037
-2,070
-1,653
-746
559
1,528
621
-2,035
-2,471
-1,541
1980: m
IV
55,786
57,856
-59,735
-63,046
-3,949
-5,190
17,848
18,877
-10,485
-11,518
7,363
7,359
-286
-742
-114
-174
1,810
1,879
4,824
3,131
-1,444
-2,195
3,380
936
1981: I
n
m
IV
60,683
60,284
57,694
57,593
-64,995
-66,831
-65,539
-66,778
-4,312
-6,547
-7,845
-9,185
20,528
21,642
22,048
21,727
-12,405
-13,441
-13,865
-13,198
8,123
8,201
8,183
8,529
-487
-587
61
-528
-495
-139
200
203
1,838
1,981
1,960
1,924
4,667
2,909
2,559
943
- 1,422
-1,510
-1,808
-1,870
3,245
1,399
751
927
1982: I".
IP
55,610
55,616
-61,669
60,733
-6,059
-5,117
21,188
-14,208
6,980
213
44
1,992
3,170
1,990
1,180
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1
Excludes military grants.
Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage.
Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the
United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net.
2
3
36
Net
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
-3,881
7,140
-7,186
2,124
18,280
-4,613
4,384
-4,998
-4,617 -14,068
-5,030 -14,773
-5,561
466
1,520
-6,783
4,471
-6,608
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
In the private capital accounts, U.S. claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $34.7 billion in the first
quarter of 1982, compared with a $42.7 billion increase in the fourth quarter of 1981. Much of the increase,
$25.1 billion, reflected activity of International Banking Facilities (IBFs), which were authorized in December 1981.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
60
60
-20
-20
-40
-40
-60
-60
SOURCE DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
U.S. assets abroad, net
[ ncrease/eapitiil outflow (— )]
Period
Total
U.S.
official
reservel 2
assets
Other U.S.
Government
assets
Foreign assets in the 1 J.S., net
[increas ; /capital inflovv ( + )] 2
U.S.
private
assets
Total
Foreign
official
assets
Other
foreign
assets
-22,874
-34,745
-39,703
-51,269
-34,785
-61,130
-64,344
-86,026
- 109,294
158
-1,467
-849
-2,558
375
732
-1,133
8,155
-5,175
-2,644
366
3,474
-4,214
3,693
-4,660
-3,743
5,126
-5,137
-20,388
-33,643
35,380
-44,498
-30,717
-57,202
-59,469
72,746
-98,982
18,388
34,241
15,670
36,518
51,319
64,036
38,460
54,484
77,921
6,026
10,546
7,027
17,693
36,816
33,678
-13,697
15,442
4,785
12,362
23,696
8,643
18,826
14,503
30,358
52,157
39,042
73,136
-19,635
-28,512
-1,109
-4,279
-1,390
-1,154
17,136
-23,079
12,647
25,356
7,541
7,678
5,106
17,677
in
IV
-22,796
-21,566
- 17,257
-47,677
-4,529
905
4
262
-1,375
1,518
1,257
-987
-16,892
-19,143
15,996
-46,952
8,470
13,464
16,880
39,107
5,361
-2,861
-5,835
8,119
3,109
16,324
22,715
30,988
1982: 1"
-38,223
-1,089
-909
36,225
25,828
-3,173
29,001
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1980:
HI
IV
1981: I
II
1
Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDRs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve
position in the IMF.
2
Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.
Statistical Aiscrepancy
Allocations
of special
drawing
rights
(SDEs)
1,139
1,152
1,093
1,093
Total (sum
of the items
with sign
reversed)
Of which:
Seasonal
adjustment
discrepancy
2,654
-1,620
5,753
10,367
-2,465
11,866
25,212
28,870
25,809
U S official
assets, net l
(unadjusted,
end of
period)
14,378
15,883
16,226
18,747
19,312
18,650
18,956
26,756
30,075
3,608
2,219
2,754
2,605
22,994
26,756
9,988
6,703
-374
9,497
-829
503
-2,144
2,474
30,410
29,582
29,716
30,075
11,214
-875
29,944
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the
Treasury.
37
Contents
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
Page
Gross National Product
Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars
Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product
Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures
Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits
National Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Sources of Personal Income
Disposition of Personal Income
Farm Income
Corporate Profits
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment—Nonfarm Business
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
Status of the Labor Force
Selected Unemployment Rates
Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector
11
12
13
14
15
15
16
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures
New Construction......
New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates
Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade
Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders
17
18
19
19
20
21
PRICES
Producer Prices
Consumer Prices
Changes in Producer Prices
Changes in Consumer Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
22.
23
24
24
25
MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets
Components of Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets
Consumer Installment Credit
Bank Loans and Investments, and Reserves
Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business
Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations
Interest Rates and Bond Yields
Common Stock Prices and Yields
26
27
27
28
29
29
30
31
FEDERAL FINANCE
Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt
Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function
Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis
32
33
34
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries
U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports
U.S. International Transactions
35
35
36
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