Full text of Economic Indicators : August 1974
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August 1974 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1974 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas, Chairman WILLIAM PROXMIRE, Wisconsin, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES RICHARD BOLLING (Missouri) HENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin) MARTHA W. GRIFFITHS (Michigan) WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD (Pennsylvania) HUGH L. CAREY (New York) WILLIAM B. WIDNALL (New Jersey) BARBER B. CONABLE, JR. (New York) CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio) BEN B. BLACKBURN (Georgia) SENATE JOHN SPARKMAN (Alabama) J. W. FULBRIGHT (Arkansas) ABRAHAM RIBICOFF (Connecticut) HUBERT H. HUMPHREY (Minnesota) LLOYD M. BENTSEN, JR. (Texas) JACOB K. JAVITS (New York) CHARLES H. PERCY (Illinois) JAMES B. PEARSON (Kansas) RICHARD S. SCHWEIKER (Pennsylvania) JOHN R. STARK, Executive Director LOUGHLIN F. McHuGH, Senior Economist RICHARD F. KAUFMAN, General Counsel COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS HERBERT STEIN, Chairman WILLIAM J. FELLNER GARY L. SEEVERS Economic Indicators prepared under supervision of FRANCES M. JAMES [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sx Congress; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S.I. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled. That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at 55 cents a single copy or by subscription at $6.50 per year ($1.75 additional for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 Subscribers who wish to receive it at an earlier date after release may take advantage of provisions for airmail subscriptions. The domestic airmail subscription price is $3.60 additional per year. 11 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING THE NATION'S INCOME, EXPENDITURE, AND SAVING Gross national product increased $28.5 billion in the second quarter of 1974 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,387.3 billion, according to revised estimates. The increase for the preceding quarter was $14.8 billion. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] CjovernmeiQt Persons E xpenditur BS N et receipts Disposab le personsil income Surplus or Equals: Personal sonal Less: Less: Less: Tax Interest Total consump- saving Trans- Equals: deficit Transand Purpaid and excludfers, fers, Total tion or nontax interest, Equals: expend- interest, chases income transfer ing Net expenddisof goods interest and payand and receipts itures itures saving receipts or and and ments sub— 2 services product subaccruals sidies 2 transto foraccounts si dies fers eigners PprJL tJI- Period Total l 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 591. 0 634. 4 691. 7 746. 4 802. 5 903. 7 15. 1 16. 7 17. 9 18. 8 20. 9 24. 1 575. 9 617. 7 673 8 727. 6 781. 6 879. 6 536. 2 579. 5 617. 6 667. 1 729.0 805. 2 39. 8 38. 2 56. 2 60. 5 52. 6 74. 4 263. 5 296. 7 302. 5 321. 6 367. 0 411. 5 70. 7 77.9 93. 2 105. 9 116. 5 131. 6 192.7 218.8 209. 4 215. 7 250. 5 279. 9 270. 3 287. 9 312. 7 340. 2 372. 1 408. 0 70. 7 77.9 93. 2 105. 9 116. 5 131. 6 199.6 210. 0 219. 5 234.2 255. 7 276. 4 -6.8 8.8 -10. 1 -18.5 -5. 1 3.5 1973: I IT.__ III.. IV.__ 869. 5 892. 1 913. 9 939. 4 22. 23. 24. 26. 5 5 3 2 847. 0 868. 6 889. 6 913. 2 781. 799. 816. 823. 7 0 3 9 65. 3 69. 6 73. 2 89. 3 398. 2 406. 9 416. 6 424. 6 127. 2 130. 7 133. 0 135.9 271. 0 276. 2 283. 6 288. 7 396.0 404. 0 409. 8 422. 3 127. 130. 133. 135. 2 7 0 9 269. 0 273.3 276.9 286. 4 2. 1 3. 0 6. 7 2. 3 1974: I 950. 6 966. 5 25. 6 25. 8 925. 0 940. 7 840. 6 869. 1 84. 4 71. 5 437. 3 454.2 139. 3 147.4 298. 0 306.8 435.5 451. 7 139. 3 147.4 296. 3 304.4 1.8 2.4 Business Iriternation al Net Net e xports of goods Excess of Total a nd service s Excess transfers Gross to fortransfers income Gross private of retained domestic invest- eigners or or earnby perEquals: of net receipts ment sons and Exports 3 investLess: ings Net Imports exports exports ment 4 (-) Govern(~)5 ment Period 95. 4 97. 0 97. 0 110. 2 125. 9 136. 5 126. 0 139. 0 136. 3 153. 7 179. 3 209. 4 — 30. 0 -42. 0 -39. 3 -43. 5 — 53. 5 -72.9 2. 9 2. 9 3. 2 3. 6 3.8 3. 9 50. 6 55. 5 62. 9 65. 4 72. 4 100.4 48. 1 53. 6 59. 3 65. 6 78.4 96. 4 2. 5 1. 9 3. 6 —.2 -6. 0 3. 9 1973: I II III IV 133. 135. 137. 140. 7 3 1 1 199. 0 205. 1 209. 0 224. 5 -65. 3 -69. 8 — 71. 9 -84. 4 3. 0 4. 2 3. 6 4. 7 88. 8 95. 4 103. 7 113. 6 89. 5 94. 9 96. 9 104. 3 -. 8 .5 6. 7 9.3 3. 8 3. 7 -3. 1 — 4. 7 1, 1, 1, 1, 1974: I II * 138. 3 139. 2 210. 5 211. 8 -72. 2 -72.6 3. 7 3. 7 131. 2 141.0 119. 9 139. 0 11.3 2.0 -7. 7 1. 7 1968 _ _ 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 _ _ 1 Personal income (p. 5) less personal tax and nontax payments (fines, penalties, etc.). * Government transfer payments to persons, foreign net transfers by Government, net interest paid by government, subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises, and disbursements less wage accruals. 3 Capital consumption allowances, corporate inventory valuation adjustment, undistributed corporate profits, and private wage accruals less disbursements. Does not include retained earnings of unincorporated business, which are included in disposable personal income. 0. 4 866. 9 1. 0 936. 3 —. 4 983. 5 3. 8 1, 057. 2 9. 8 1, 161. 8 -i 11, 299. 9 Statistical discrepancy Gross national product or expenditure -2. 7 -6. 1 -6. 4 -2. 3 -3.8 -5. 0 864. 2 930. 3 977. 1 1, 054. 9 1, 158. 0 1, 294. 9 254. 7 284. 3 313. 9 346. 7 -5. 9 -6. 5 -4. 9 -2. 6 1, 248. 9 1, 277. 9 1, 308. 9 1, 344. 0 1, 365. 0 1, 390.4 -6.3 -3.1 1, 358. 8 1, 387. 3 * Private business investment, purchases of capital goods by private nonprofit institutions, and residential housing. «Net foreign investment less capital grants received by United States, with sign changed. Source: Department of Commerce. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OR EXPENDITURE in the second quarter gross national product (seasonally adjusted) rose at an annual rate of 8.7 percent, reflecting an Inflation rate of 9.6 percent and a decline of 0.8 percent in real GNP. The rate of increase in money GNP and in inflation was somewhat higher than earlier estimates while the decline in real GNP was somewhat lower. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT 1,000 1,000 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION -EXPENDITURES- 800 800 600 600 GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES 200 200 NET EXPORTS OF GOODS GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT AND SERVICES \ I 1968 1969 1970 I _L 1972 1971 1973 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period 1964 1965 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Government ]3urcfaases of good s and Total Personal Gross Net services conTotal gross private exports sump- domestic of goods national gross Federal State product national tion Total investand and National Other in 1958 product expend- ment services Total defense1 local itures dollars Billions Df dollars; quarterly data at s easonairy adjuste d annual rates 581. 1 617.8 658. 1 839.2 1966__ 1967 1968 1969— 1970 1971 1972 1973 632. 4 684. 9 749. 9 793. 9 864 2 930. 3 977. 1 1, 054. 9 1, 158. 0 1, 294. 9 401.2 432.8 466. 3 492. 1 536. 2 579. 5 617. 6 667. 1 729. 0 805. 2 94.0 108. 1 121. 4 116. 6 126. 0 139.0 136. 3 153. 7 179. 3 209. 4 832. 8 837. 4 840. 8 845. 7 1, 248. 9 1, 277. 9 1, 308. 9 1, 344. 0 781. 7 799. 0 816. 3 823. 9 199. 0 205. 1 209. 0 224. 5 830. 5 1, 358. 8 828. 8 1, 387. 3 840. 6 869. 1 210. 5 211. 8 675.2 706.6 725.6 722.5 746. 3 792. 5 1973: I II III IV 1974: I II 1 This category corresponds closely with budget outlays for national defense, shown on p. 36. s Gross national product in current dollars divided by gross national product in 1968 dollars. 1974 Implicit price deflator for total GNP, 1958=1002 128.7 137. 0 156. 8 180. 1 199. 6 210. 0 219. 5 234. 2 255. 7 276. 4 65.2 66.9 77. 8 90.7 98. 8 98. 8 96. 2 97. 6 104.9 106. 6 50. 0 50. 1 60.7 72. 4 78. 3 78. 4 74. 6 71. 2 74. 8 74, 4 15. 2 16. 8 17. 1 18.4 20.5 20. 4 21. 6 26.5 30. 1 32.2 63.5 70. 1 79.0 89.4 100. 8 111. 2 123. 3 136. 6 150. 8 169. 8 108. 110. 113. 117. 122. 128. 135. 141. 146. 154. 85 86 94 59 30 20 24 35 12 31 -. 8 .5 6.7 9.3 269. 0 273. 3 276. 9 286.4 106. 4 106. 2 105. 3 108.4 75.0 74. 0 73. 3 75. 3 31. 4 32. 2 32. 0 33. 1 162. 167. 171. 177. 149. 152. 155. 158. 95 61 67 93 11. 3 2. 0 296. 3 304. 4 111. 5 114. 3 75. 8 76.6 35. 7 37. 7 184. 8 190. 1 8.5 6.9 5. 3 5. 2 2. 5 1. 9 3. 6 —.2 -6. 0 3. 9 Source: Department of Commerce. 6 1 6 9 163. 61 167. 39 mONAL INCOME National income rose $1 8 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter. Compensation of employees increased $191A billion while farm income fell sharply by $10 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1,100 1,100 1,000 1,000 900 900 800 800 700 700 600 600 500 500 •>. 200 PROPRIETORS' AND RENTAL INCOME 200 CORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT 100 100 1973 1972 1968 1974 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Total national income Period 1964 1965 _ _ 1966 1967 1968_ __ 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1973: I_ II III__. IV 1974: I II v1 2 Includes Compensation of em- 1 ployees Proprieto rs' income Farm 2 Net interest Corpora te profits and inventory va luation a<Ijust men t Total Profits Inventory before valuation taxes adjustment 518. 1 564.3 620. 6 653. 6 711. 1 766. 0 800. 5 857. 7 946. 5 1, 065. 6 ._ 365.7 393.8 435. 5 467. 2 514, 6 566. 0 603. 9 643. 1 707. 1 786. 0 12. 1 14.8 16. 1 14. 8 14. 7 16.7 16. 9 17.2 21. 0 38. 5 40.2 42.4 45. 2 47. 3 49. 5 50. 5 50. 0 52. 0 54. 9 57. 6 18.0 19.0 20. 0 21. 1 21. 2 22. 6 23. 9 25. 2 25. 9 26. 1 15.8 18.2 21. 4 24. 4 26. 9 30. 5 36. 5 41. 6 45. 6 52. 3 66.3 76.1 82. 4 78. 7 84 3 79. 8 69. 2 78.7 92. 2 105. 1 66.8 77.8 84. 2 79. 8 87. 6 84. 9 74. 0 83. 6 99. 2 122. 7 -0.5 — 1. 7 — 1. 8 — 1.1 — 3. 3 -5. 1 -4.8 -4. 9 — 7. 0 -17. 6 1, 027. 6 1, 051. 2 1, 077. 3 1, 106. 3 759. 1 776. 7 793. 3 814. 8 32. 1 35. 6 41. 5 44. 9 57. 0 57. 1 57. 7 58. 4 26.3 25. 7 26. 2 26. 4 49.2 51. 1 53.2 55. 5 103. 9 105. 0 105. 2 106. 4 120. 124. 122. 122. 4 9 7 7 -16. 5 — 20. 0 -17. 5 -16. 3 1, 118. 8 1, 137. 1 828. 8 848. 3 39. 1 29. 1 59. 3 60.7 26. 4 26. 3 57. 5 60. 1 107. 7 112. 6 138. 7 150. 4 — 31. 0 -37.9 employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 4.) Excludes farm profits of corporations engaged in farming and therefore differs from net farm income (including net inventory change) on p. 6 which includes mch profits. Business and professional Rental income of per- Source: Department of Commerce. SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $14.4 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in July. Wage and salary disbursements increased $6.2 billion, mainly reflecting higher wage rates and a longer workweek since nonfarm payroll employment declined. Transfer payments were up $5.5 billion, of which $2.1 billion represented increased social security benefits. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 600 200 1968 1974 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Total personal income 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973__1973: June... July... Aug Sept__. Get Nov... Dec 1974: Jan Feb Mar___ Apr May___ June ___ July *__ 629. 3 688.9 750.9 808. 3 864. 0 944.9 1, 055. 0 1, 047. 2 1, 056. 1 1, 067. 6 1, 080. 4 I, 090. 8 1, 100. 0 1, 107. 1 1, 107. 0 1, 113. 4 1, 117. 1 1, 125. 2 1, 135. 2 1, 143. 5 1, 157. 9 [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] 7 Wage Rental Other ProprieU)rs income income and Divi- Personal Transfer Business paylabor 1 2 salary dends interest ments of income and pro- persons Farm disburse- income 1 fessional ments 21. 4 21. 1 4a o 22. 3 47. 3 51. 8 423. 1 14.8 21. 2 23. 6 52. 9 59. 6 49. 5 25. 4 14.7 464. 9 22. 6 24. 3 59. 3 65. 8 50.5 28.4 16. 7 509. 7 24. 7 23. 9 67. 5 79.1 50. 0 32. 2 542. 0 16. 9 25. 0 72.8 17.2 52. 0 25. 2 93. 3 36.4 573. 0 27. 3 78. 6 103. 2 54. 9 25. 9 41,7 21. 0 626. 8 29. 6 90. 6 117. 8 57.6 26. 1 38. 5 46. 0 691.7 89. 9 26. 2 29. 2 57. 2 116. 6 35. 9 45. 6 689. 2 117. 2 26. 0 29. 4 57.8 91. 2 38.8 45. 9 692. 9 92. 5 26. 2 30. 0 119. 4 57. 6 46. 3 41. 5 697. 2 30. 0 93. 7 26. 4 120. 4 57. 8 46.7 44. 3 704. 5 94. 8 30.2 121. 7 26. 4 58. 3 47. 1 44.9 711. 0 122. 1 26. 4 30. 4 96. 0 58. 5 47. 6 44. 9 717. 9 97. 0 122. 6 26. 4 58. 4 31. 6 48. 0 44. 9 722. 2 97. 5 26. 4 126. 7 42. 1 58.7 31. 4 48. 5 722. 5 31. 6 98. 3 26. 4 128. 4 59. 4 39. 1 48.9 728. 3 26.4 31. 9 99. 0 129. 5 59. 9 36. 1 49. 4 732. 1 32. 1 134. 6 25. 5 100. 4 60. 2 32.6 49. 9 737. 1 102. 0 32. 5 135. 8 60.8 26. 7 50. 5 29. 1 745.3 61.2 103. 5 26. 7 33. 0 137. 0 25. 7 51. 1 753.2 104. 7 142. 5 33. 2 26. 8 61.3 26. 7 51. 7 759.4 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 3) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. sConsistsoi employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Less: Personal con- Nonagricultural tributions personal for social income insurance 20. 5 22.8 26. 3 28. 0 30.7 34. 5 42. 8 42. 6 43. 1 43. 3 43. 5 43. 7 43. 8 43. 8 46. 7 46. 8 47.0 47. 2 47. 6 47. 9 48. 3 609. 4 668. 8 728. 3 784.8 840.0 916. 5 1, 008. 0 1, 002. 9 1, 008. 8 1, 017. 6 1, 027. 6 1, 037. 0 1, 046. 1 1, 052. 9 1, 055. 5 1, 064. 9 1, 071. 6 1, 083. 1 1, 096. 6 1, 106. 8 1, 121. 1 funds; compensation for injuries; directors' fees; military reserve pay; and a few other minor items. 3 Personal income exclusive of net income of unincorporated farm enterpr farm wages, agricultural net interest, and net dividends paid by agricul corporations. Source: Department of Commerce. 3POSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME .ic second quarter, personal income rose $22.1 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate), disposable income 4>15.9 billion, and personal outlays $28.7 billion. Real per capita disposable income declined 1.3 percent in the quarter after having decreased 2.2 percent in the first quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,000 1,000 900 500 DOLLARS 5,000 DOLLARS 5,000 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 4,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 2,000 2,000 1974 1968' SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Less * PerPersonal sonal tax and income nontax payments COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Per ca|.>ita disL ess : Persemal outla ys posable personal Equals: Persoilal consurnption Equals: incc)me Disex penditures 2 Personal Total posable saving Current personal personal Durable Non1958 income outlays * goods durable Services dollars dollars Koods Billions of dollars 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 587. 2 629. 3 688. 9 750. 9 808. 3 864.0 944. 9 1, 055. 0 75. 4 83. 0 97. 9 116. 5 116. 6 117. 6 142. 4 151. 3 511. 9 546. 3 591. 0 634. 4 691. 7 746. 4 802. 5 903. 7 479. 3 506. 0 551. 2 596. 2 635. 5 685. 9 749. 9 829. 4 70.8 73. 1 84. 0 90. 8 91. 3 103. 9 118. 4 130.3 Saving as percent of Populadistion posable (thoupersonal sands) 3 income ( percent) Dol lars 206. 9 215. 0 230. 8 245. 9 263. 8 278. 4 299. 7 338. 0 188. 6 204. 0 221. 3 242. 7 262. 6 284. 8 310. 9 336. 9 32. 5 40. 4 39. 8 38. 2 56. 2 60. 5 52. 6 74. 4 2,604 2,749 2, 945 3, 130 3, 376 3, 605 3,843 4,295 2,335 2,403 2, 486 2, 534 2,610 2, 683 2, 779 2,945 6. 4 7.4 6.7 6. 0 8. 1 8. 1 6. 6 8.2 196, 198, 200, 202, 204, 207, 208, 210, 560 712 706 677 875 045 842 396 852 205 610 030 Seaso nally adjiisied annu al rates I... IIIII. IV_ 144. 1 147. 2 154. 2 159. 9 869. 5 892. 1 913. 9 939. 4 804. 2 822. 5 840. 7 850. 1 132. 4 132. 1 132. 4 124. 3 323. 3 332. 7 343. 8 352. 1 325. 9 334. 2 340. 1 347. 4 65. 3 69. 6 73. 2 89. 3 4, 143 4,244 4, 339 4, 452 2, 2, 2, 2, 931 941 952 952 7.5 7. 8 8.0 9. 5 209, 210, 210, 211, 1974: L__ 1, 112. 5 161. 9 II__ 1, 134. 6 168.2 950. 6 966. 5 866. 2 894.9 123. 9 129. 5 364. 4 375. 8 352. 4 363.8 84. 4 71.5 4,497 4, 565 2,887 2,850 8.9 7. 4 211, 381 211, 721 1973: 1, 013. 6 1, 039. 2 1, 068. 0 1, 099. 3 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers, and personal transfer payments to foreigners. 2 -See p. 2 for total personal consumption expenditures. 3 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are for July 1; quarterly data are for middle of period, interpolated from monthly data. Source: Department of Commerce. FARM INCOME According to new estimates, net farm income for 1973 has been revised upward substantially, making the 1973 total almost double that in 1972. There was a sharp drop in income in the second quarter of 1974 because of falling farm prices. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1120 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 120 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 100 100 80 80 REALIZED GROSS FARM INCOME 60 60 40 40 NET FARM INCOME INCLUDING NET INVENTORY CHANGE 20 20 1968 1969 1971 1970 1972 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Personal income re ceived by total f arm popu lation ] income re ceived fro m farming> Net t(3 farm oper ators Realize d gross Period 1966 1967 1968 _ 1969 1970 1971 __ 1972__ 1973 From From nonfarm farm sources sources From all sources _ ._ _ _ 1974 1973 23. 7 22. 6 23. 9 26. 6 27. 1 28. 2 33. 7 50. 4 12. 7 11.0 11.3 12. 9 12. 9 13. 2 16. 5 31. 3 Net inc ome per farm incl uding net inventorsr change s Produc~ Cash tion ex- Exclud- Includreceipts penses ingnetin- img net in- Current 1967 from Total 1 ventory ventory dollars dollars 4 2 marketchange change ings Billions c)f dollars Dol lars 50. 6 49. 9 51.7 56. 3 58. 6 60.6 69. 9 97. 0 11.0 11. 6 12. 7 13. 7 14. 2 15. 0 17. 2 19. 0 43. 4 42. 8 44. 2 48. 2 50. 5 52. 9 61. 0 88. 6 36.4 38.3 39. 5 42. 2 44. 6 47. 6 52. 4 64. 7 14. 1 11. 6 12. 2 14.2 14. 0 13. 0 17. 5 32. 2 14. 1 12. 3 12. 3 14.3 14. 0 14. 4 18. 4 36.2 4, 316 3, 877 4,018 4,753 4, 752 4,957 6, 410 12, 744 4,404 3,877 3, 863 4, 361 4, 168 4, 166 5, 169 9,235 Seaso nally adjiisted annu al rates 1973: I II III_ IV 1974: I II — 86. 2 93. 2 101. 8 106.7 j ( 77.5 84. 8 93. 6 98. 5 60. 1 62. 9 67. 0 69. 0 26. 1 30. 3 34. 8 37.7 29. 6 33. 3 39.3 42. 7 10, 410 11, 710 13, 820 15, 010 7,950 8, 610 9, 870 10, 350 105. 0 98. 4 98. 0 91. 3 72. 1 74. 5 32. 9 23. 9 36. 9 26.9 13, 080 9,540 8,610 6, 000 1 Cash receipts from marketings, Government payments, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Inventory of crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year. Also, see footnote 2, p. 3. 2 Eased on Census of Agriculture definition of a farm. The number of farms is held constant within a year. < Income in current dollars divided by the index of prices paid by farmers for family living items on a 1967 base. Source: Department of Agriculture. PRPORATE PROFITS ^rporatc profits plus inventory valuation adjustment rose by $4.9 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter. The rise excluding inventory valuation adjustment was $11.7 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 160 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 160 60 40 40 20 - 20 1968 I 1974 1969 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF CO/AMERCE Period [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Corjporate pi*ofits Corf >orate pi•ofits (befc>re taxes) and inveiitory ptfter taxcJS Corpo- Profits valuation adjustme nt rate Plus TransCorpo- CorpoM anufactui •ing capital capital portation, rate rate conconDiviUncomtax profits NonAll Durable durable muniAll l before liabil- Total dend distrib- sump- sumpindustion tion goods uted paytaxes ity goods cation, other tries Total indusments profits allow- allowand ances 2 ances 3 tries public tries utilities 82. 4 78. 7 84. 3 79. 8 69. 2 ___ 78.7 ___ 92. 2 105. 1 42. 6 38. 7 41.7 36. 6 27. 8 32. 3 40. 8 47. 6 1973: !____ 103. 9 II_._ 105. 0 III__ 105. 2 IV___ 106. 4 107. 7 112. 6 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971_ 1972_ 1973 1974: ! _ _ _ _ II". COUNCiL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 24 0 20. 7 22. 4 18, 8 10. 5 11. 9 10. 8 10. 6 10. 1 21. 8 26. 1 18. 6 18. 0 19. 3 17. 7 17. 3 17. 8 19. 0 21. 5 48. 6 48. 4 47. 1 46. 4 27. 6 26. 9 25.7 24. 3 20.9 21. 5 21.4 22. 1 9. 4 46. 2 19. 3 2&9 145 1 Includes all other industries and financial institutions. 2 Includes depreciation and accidental damages. 8 27. 9 29. 1 32.0 33. 1 33. 7 38. 1 42. 2 48.3 84. 2 79. 8 87. 6 84. 9 74. 0 83. 6 99.2 122. 7 34.3 33. 2 39. 9 40. 1 34. 8 37. 5 41. 5 49. 8 49. 9 46. 6 47. S 44. 8 39. 3 46. 1 57. 7 72. 9 20. 8 21. 4 23. 6 24. 3 24. 7 25. 0 27. 3 29. 6 29. 1 25. 3 24. 2 20. 5 14. 6 21. 1 30. 3 43. 3 ! 39. 5 43. 0 46. 8 51. 9 56. 0 60. 4 66. 3 71. 2 89.5 89. 6 94 6 96.8 95. 2 106. 5 124. 0 144. 1 8.8 9. 5 9. 2 45. 9 47. 8 48. 6 50.8 120. 4 124. 9 122. 7 122. 7 48. 9 50. 9 49. 9 49. 5 71. 5 74. 0 72. 9 73. 2 28. 7 29. 1 29. 8 30. 7 42. 8 44. 9 43. 1 42. 5 69. 2 70. 8 71. 6 73. 1 140. 7 144. 8 144. 5 146. 3 7. 1 54.5 138.7 150.4 53.6 59. 4 85. 1 91. 1 31.6 32. 5 53. 5 58. 5 74. 1 75. 7 159. 2 166. 8 7.8 8.3 9.2 9.2 Corporate profits after taxes plus corporate capital consumption allowances. 38-570 °—74 2 Source: Department of Commerce. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT Gross private domestic investment rose in the second quarter as an increase in nonresidential fixed investment n than offset a decline in inventory investment. Outlays for residential structures changed little. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 250 250 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 200 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 150 150 100 PRODUCERS' DURABLE EQUIPMENT \ i^j ^—i ^ jCI~~~~~ NONRESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES 50 '^r^r '"••«.•„„„ i,,,,,,.,,, ,„„»••**'*** rUAKirtC 1M Dl KIKICCC CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES \ RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES 1969 1968 50 ! ! ! 1970 ] ! 1972 1971 i 1 1973 SOURCE! DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE f f 1974 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Fixed imvestment Total gross private domestic investment Period Resid ential struc tures Ncmresident ial Struc tures Total Total Total Nonfarm Produce rs durable equ ipment Total Nonfarm Total Nonfarm C hange in business mv entories Total Nonfarm 94 0 108. 1 121. 4 116.6 126. 0 139.0 136. 3 153. 7 179. 3 209. 4 88.2 98.5 106. 6 108. 4 1 18. 9 131. 1 131. 7 147. 4 170. 8 194. 0 61. 1 71. 3 81. 6 83. 3 88. 8 98. 5 100. 6 104. 6 116. 8 136. 8 21.2 25.5 28. 5 28. 0 30. 3 34. 2 36. 1 37. 9 41. 1 47. 0 20.5 24. 9 27. 8 27. 3 29. 6 33. 5 35. 3 37. 1 40. 4 45. 7 39. 9 45.8 53. 1 55. 3 58. 5 64. 3 64. 4 66. 6 75. 7 89. 8 36.3 41. 6 48.4 50. 0 53. 6 59. 2 58. 9 61. 1 69. 2 81. 4 27. 1 27. 2 25. 0 25. 1 30. 1 32. 6 31. 2 42. 8 54. 0 57. 2 26. 6 26. 7 24. 5 24. 5 29. T> 32. 0 30. 7 42. 3 53. 4 56. 7 5. 8 I). 6 14. 8 8. 2 7. 1 7.8 4. 5 6. 3 8. 5 15. 4 6. 4 8.6 15.0 7. 5 6. 9 7. 7 4. 3 4. 9 7. 8 11.4 1973: I II III IV 199. 0 205. 1 209. 0 224. 5 189. 0 194. 4 197. 1 195. 5 130. 5 135. 6 139. 0 141. 9 44. 6 46. 2 47. 9 49. 3 43. 6 44. 9 46. 4 47. 8 85. 9 89. 4 91. 1 92. 6 78. 5 81. 1 82. 6 83. 5 58. 5 58. 7 58. 1 53. 6 58. 0 58.4 57. 6 53. 0 10. 0 10. 7 11.8 28. 9 6.5 7.7 7.4 24. 0 1974: I II 210. 5 211. 8 193. 6 198. 3 145. 2 149. 4 51. 3 52. 2 49. 5 50. 4 93. 9 97. 2 84.6 86. 9 48. 4 48. 8 47. 8 48. 0 16. 9 13. 5 13. 1 10.4 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968. 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 __ __ Source: Department of Commerce. 8 fPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT :cording fo an April-May survey, businessmen plan to increase their investment expenditures by 1 2 percent in 974. The planned increase in the second half of the year is somewhat less than in the first half. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 120 BJLLIONS OF DOLLARS 120 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 100 100 TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT 80 80 NONMANUFACTURING „,•••••««""" 40 40 j MANUFACTURING \ ! 20 M>—I—1—JL 1969 1968 | J/ } 1971 1970 1972 J/ J/ 20 1974 1973 J/SEE FOOTNOTE 3 BELOW. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] M anufaetur ing Period TraiisportatJon Total l DurTotal 63. 65. 67. 75. 79. 81. 88. 99. 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 51 47 76 56 71 21 44 74 19743 111.96 1973: I II III IV 1974: I II3 96. 97. 100. 103. 107. 110. 113. 116. III IV 3 3 1 19 76 90 74 27 58 16 04 IS onman ufacturir ig 28. 20 28. 51 28. 37 31. 68 31. 95 29. 99 31. 35 38. 01 45. 52 35. 51 36. 58 38. 81 40. 61 42.96 45. 22 46. 00 47. 40 Non- able goods durable goods 14. 06 14. 06 14. 12 15. 96 15. 80 14. 15 15. 64 19. 25 22. 49 17. 88 18. 64 19. 73 20. 48 21. 43 22. 60 23. 25 22. 61 14. 14 14. 45 14. 25 15. 72 16. 15 15. 84 15. 72 18. 76 23. 03 17. 63 17. 94 19. 08 20. 13 21. 53 22. 61 22. 76 24. 80 Total 35.32 36. 39. 43. 47. 51. 57. 61. 66. 60. 61. 62. 63. 64. 65.36 67. 15 68. 64 Excludes agricultural business; real estate operators; medical, legal, educational, and cultural service; and nonprofit organizations. 2 Includes trade, service, construction, finance, and insurance. Estimates based on expected capital expenditures as reported by business ? April and May 1974. Includes adjustments when necessary for systematic \cies in expectations data. 96 40 88 76 22 09 73 44 68 18 09 12 31 Mining 1. 62 1. 65 1. 63 1. 86 1. 89 2. 16 2. 42 2. 74 2. 98 2.59 2. 77 2. 82 2. 76 2. 80 2. 97 3. 06 Railroad 2. 37 1. 86 1 45 1. 86 1. 78 1. 67 1. 80 1. 96 2.54 2. 11 1. 75 1. 95 2. 05 2. 10 2. 48 2. 70 Public utilities Air Other 1. 74 2. 29 2. 56 2.51 3. 03 1. 88 2. 46 2. 41 2. 09 2. 21 2. 72 2. 49 2. 20 2. 13 2. 26 2. 16 1. 64 1. 48 1. 59 1. 68 1. 23 1. 38 1. 46 1.66 1. 99 1. 53 1. 62 1.79 1.73 1. 63 1. 93 2. 17 7.43 8. 74 10. 20 11. 61 13. 14 15. 30 17. 00 18. 71 21. 36 18. 38 18. 08 18. 58 19. 80 20. 12 20. 73 21. 53 Communication Commercial and other 2 6.02 14. 48 6. 34 14. 59 6. 83 15. 14 8.30 16. 05 10. 10 16. 59 10. 77 18. 05 11. 89 20.07 12. 85 21. 40 13. 80 21. 66 12. 34 21. 53 12. 70 21. 55 13. 12 21. 36 13. 24 21. 35 13.83 21. 69 35. 00 35. 54 NOTE.—Annual total is the sum of unadjusted expenditures; it does not necessarily coincide with the average oi seasonally adjusted figures. These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. Source: Department oi Commerce. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGE STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE The seasonally adjusted civilian labor force increased by 248,000 in July. There were increases In both employment (147,000) and unemployment (101,000). MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE s EA S<DN A LL1!f j\D JUST ED L NEM PLOY MEN T RATE _ v r —r-- -{—] — —r ••I 1 i f : ; * f TT T t J^L ^L "1—^ t \ ~n 1 Ii. i 19 69 968 1 "" 1 11 -] 4 i | : : ' 19 70 1 ?y 3 97 2 85, 86, 88, 91, 1973: JuneJulyAug_ Sept_ Oct.. Nov. Dee__ 1974: Jan... Feb_ Mar_ Apr__ May_ June. July- 903 929 991 040 92, 729 93, 227 92, 436 91, 298 92, 046 92, 168 91, 983 91, 91, 91, 91, 92, 94, 95, 354 692 884 736 158 758 496 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Civiliabn emTotal Civ illsin emplo yment ployiinent labor Unempk>yment Labor Unemforce Civilian force NonNon- Unem- rate (pe rcent of participloy- (includ- labor Agriployagriagriciviliaii labor pation Total ment ing force Total culment culculfor ce) Armed tural rate1 tural tural Forces) Thoug3ands of ]persons 1C* years of age and o ver Percent 78, 627 75, 165 4, 088 85, 903 82, 715 78, 627 3,462 75, 165 4, 088 61. 3 4.9 79, 120 75, 732 4, 993 86, 929 84, 113 79, 120 3,387 75, 732 4,993 61. 0 5. 9 81, 702 78, 230 4,840 88, 991 86, 542 81, 702 3,472 78, 230 4,840 61. 0 5. 6 84, 409 80, 957 4, 304 91, 040 88, 714 84, 409 3,452 80, 957 4, 304 61. 4 4. 9 Seaso nally UnadUnadj usted t.Seasonally adjusted t adju sied justed Total labor force (including Armed Forces) 1970— 1971___ 1972*.. 1973*__ \ 85, 567 86, 367 85, 921 84, 841 85, 994 85, 828 85, 643 81, 514 82, 201 82, 095 81, 406 82, 469 82, 409 82, 441 4, 847 4, 550 4, 208 4, 165 3, 763 4,056 4, 058 91, 133 91, 139 91, Oil 91, 664 92, 038 92, 186 92, 315 88, 818 88, 828 88, 704 89, 373 89, 749 89, 903 90, 033 84, 518 84, 621 84, 513 85, 133 85, 649 85, 649 85, 669 3,430 3, 512 3, 425 3, 376 3, 455 3, 561 3, 643 81, 088 81, 109 81, 088 81, 757 82, 194 82, 088 82, 026 4,300 4,207 4, 191 84, 088 84, 294 84, 878 85, 192 85, 785 87, 167 88, 015 80, 891 81,011 81, 544 81, 756 82, 181 83, 272 83, 991 5,008 5, 140 4, 755 4, 301 4, 144 5, 380 5, 260 92, 801 92, 814 92, 747 92, 556 92, 909 93, 130 93, 387 90, 543 90, 556 90, 496 90, 313 90, 679 90, 919 91, 167 85, 811 85, 803 85, 863 85, 775 85, 971 86, 165 86, 312 3, 794 3,852 3, 699 3, 511 3, 457 3, 293 3, 405 82, 017 81, 951 82, 164 82, 264 82, 614 82, 872 82, 907 4, 732 4,753 4, 633 4, 538 4, 708 4,754 4,855 *Data beginning January 1972 not strictly comparable with prior data because of adjustment to 1970 Census data, which added 333,000 to the civilian labor force and 301,000 to civilian employment. A further adjustment in March 1973 added 60,000 to the labor force and to employment. 10 i / i• i<?7 4 ( 16 Y E A R S OF AGE AND OVER, SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Period j : j; 1 $ P t J t : - J_j 1 19 7 _, "1 1 ~] 1 4, 240 4, 100 4, 254 4, 364 5. 4 5.0 4.7 4.7 4. 2 4.5 4. 5 5.6 5. 7 5. 3 4. 8 4. 6 5.8 5.6 4. 8 4. 7 4. 7 4. 7 4.6 4- 7 4.8 5. 2 5. 2 5. 1 5. 0 5. 2 5.2 6. 3 1 61. 5 61. 4 61. 3 61. 6 61. 8 61. 8 61. 8 62. 0 61. 9 61. 8 61. 6 61. 7 61. 8 61. 9 Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of and over. Source: Department of Labor. ELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND PART-TIME EMPLOYMENT . ,ie seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased in July by 0.1 percentage point to 5.3 percent. The rate for married men was unchanged at 2.6 percent. PERCENT 1 10 PERCENT 10 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED LABOR FORCE TIME LOST ///UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, EXPERIENCED /// WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS """""•"""•: t T "UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ALL CIVILIAN WORKERS I 1 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, MARRIED MEN 1974 1968 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR UneLaploymen t rate (percen t of civili an labor for ce in groiip) Period Experi- Married enced All men workers wage and (wife salary present) workers 1970 1971 1972 _ 1973 4. 9 5. 9 5. 6 4. 9 1973: June Julv Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1974: Jan Feb Mar Apr Mav June Julv 4.8 4.7 1 4.7 4.7 4.6 4. 7 4. 8 5. 2 5. 2 5. 1 5. 0 5. 2 5. 2 5. 3 Per cent 4. 8 2. 6 3. 2 5. 7 5. 3 2. 8 4. 5 2. 3 Seasonall ?/ adjusted 4-4 4-4 4.4 4.4 4.2 J,. 5 4. 6 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 5. 0 2. 3 2. 1 2. 1 2. 1 2. 1 2. 1 2. 2 2. S 2.4 2.4 2.5 2. 2 2. 6 2. 6 Persons at work ] n nonagr] cultural 2 idustries ii by hours5 worked ]oer week U ader 35 he>urs | Labor Part-t me for Part-t] me for foroe l economi c reasons economi c reasons Over 40 35-40 time lost hours hours Total Usually Usually Usually Usually fullfullpartparttime 3 time 4 time 3 time 4 Thousan ds of pers ons 16 years of age and over 1,201 995 18, 925 33, 537 18, 222 5. 3 6. 4 19, 095 35, 752 16, 298 1, 184 1, 256 20, 320 36, 794 16, 549 1, 327 6. 0 1,081 21, 284 37, 426 17, 473 1, 237 1,074 5. 2 (Jnadjustec i Seasonail ii adjusted 1,772 1, 195 1, 099 5. 2 21, 467 38, 306 15,714 1} 374 5. 1 20, 424 37, 040 14, 283 1, 129 1,886 1, 161 1, 208 5. 1 20, 503 37, 125 14, 326 1, 315 1, 567 1, 167 1, 120 1, 092 5. 1 22, 631 38, 451 16, 172 1, 126 1, 106 1, 247 34, 956 22, 136 5. 1 21, 797 1, 103 1,046 1, 108 1, 274 fy P 22, 099 38, 566 18, 630 1,083 1, 104 1, 143 1, 262 1, 140 1,210 1, 192 5. 4 22, 225 39, 574 17, 934 1, 370 1,274 5.7 \ 19, 913 38, 579 18, 682 1, 111 1, 218 1, 373 5. 7 19, 730 38, 275 19, 629 1,222 1, 375 1, 381 1, 373 5. 6 20, 854 39, 416 17, 927 1, 127 1, 249 1, 261 1, 291 1, 052 1, 078 5. 7 17, 153 34, 544 25, 026 1, 080 1,312 5. 7 21, 323 39, 775 17, 638 1, 147 1, 260 1, 265 1, 486 5. 6 20, 938 39, 734 16, 325 5 1? 314 5 1,645 1, 209 1,275 5. 7 1, 124 19, 702 38, 028 15, 123 1, 992 1, 156 1} 276 Man-hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part-time for economic ^ons as a percent of potentially available labor force man-hours. Differs from total nonagricultural employment (p. 10), which includes perwith jobs but not at work for such reasons as vacation, illness, bad weather, bdustrial disputes. icludes persons who worked part-time because of slack work, material ages or repairs, new job started, or job terminated. 4 Primarily includes persons who could find only part-time work. 'Average hours worked: usually full-time, 23.6; usually part-time, 19.6. Source: Department of Labor. 11 UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In July, insured unemployment under State programs averaged 483,000 more than a year earlier. The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate at 3.3 percent has been about unchanged since February. MILLIONS OF PERSONS MILLIONS OF PERSONS WEEKLY INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT ISTATE PROGRAMS} MAR. JAN. APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. SOURCE) DEPARTMENT OF tABOR 1970 1971 1972 1973 » 1973: June » July » Aug » Sept » Oct » Nov * Dec » 1974: Jan "__ Feb »_ Mar v*__ Apr May » June * July » Week ended : 1974: July 13 20 27 Aug 3 10" 17* Stiite progra ms Insured Total unem- benefits Insured Covered ploypaid unememploy- ment (milployment (weekly lions ment averof dolage) lars)1 _ Thou sands 59, 526 2,070 2, 313 59, 375 66, 900 2, 185 1, 783 1, 523 1,640 1,572 1,441 1,452 1,667 2,093 _ 2, 740 _ 2,824 2, 751 2, 560 2,578 2,161 2, 319 2,318 2,278 2,249 2,247 2,252 Initial claims Insurec unemBenefi ts paid ploymen t as percent of covered Total Average Exhausemplo yment tions weekly (milSeasoncheck Unad- ally ad- lions|of (dollars) dollars) justed justed Weekly iaverage, t thousands 4, 179. 1 1,805 25 296 5, 498. 2 2, 150 38 295 5, 491. 1 1,848 261 35 4, 441. 8 1,632 246 29 315. 6 1,384 206 28 326. 9 1, 505 275 27 353. 5 212 27 1, 436 287. 8 1,299 186 25 322. 9 24 1, 299 210 332. 5 1, 503 266 25 378.2 1, 922 395 27 32 606. 9 2, 561 446 597.8 359 33 2,630 2, 502 635. 6 35 293 594. 9 263 38 2, 217 584. 5 1,934 39 237 1,834 40 476.5 268 562.4 35 1,988 340 2,039 1,984 1,946 1,959 21,975 * Beginning with January 1973, monthly data include extended benefits. 12 DEC COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS A 11 progranQS Period NOV. OCT. 352 325 333 340 318 269 2 Not charted. Source: Department of Labor. Per cent 3.4 4. 1 3. 5 2. 7 2. 4 2.5 2.4 2. 1 2. 1 2.4 3. 1 4. 1 4.2 4. 0 3. 5 3. 0 2. 9 3. 1 3. 1 3. 1 3.0 3.0 3.1 2. 7 2. 7 2. 6 2.6 2.6 2. 7 2. 8 8. 1 3.3 3.4 3. S 9 <& 0. 0 3.3 S.S 3, 848. 5 4, 957. 0 4, 471. 0 4, 007. 6 286. 6 296. 3 316. 3 248. 3 280. 7 289. 4 335. 8 558.0 551.2 577. 3 552.7 486.4 387.4 509.9 50.34 54.02 56. 03 58. 73 58. 12 57.42 57. 46 58. 13 58. 97 59. 61 60.40 62.07 63. 10 63. 28 63.62 62.69 62.64 63. 55 DNAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT onagricultural payroll employment (seasonally adjusted) decreased by 1 22,000 in July, for the second consecutive nonthly decline. The decline was widespread, but particularly sharp for contract construction (102,000). MIL LIONS OF WAGE AN D SALARY WORKE RS 80 MIL LIONS OF WAGE ANl3 SALARY WORKE *S 18 (ENLARGED SOkLE) (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) _ 76 ^**~^ _— _^**»»\ 16 ' — — -— ,———I \^^^ .— _ x-*—-—^~» ALL NOh AGRICULTURAL ESTA!5LISHMENTS ^ S*^ 72 (SEASONALLY AE)JUSTEDJ WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TR ADE T4 - ' *•—••*"•" 68 v^ 44 ^ NONAAANUFACTURING (PRIVATE) 40 12 ,«,«.- — •"" ********* \ ---^*»^*""* *»— ""^""^ *" \ • -••*•* SERVICES 12 _ 36 p 24 - 1 . . M* " " " * " .. ' " " " " " IWIIIW'"****" \ _ 10 MA ^UFACTURING \ 20 v - s* D URABLE MANL FACTURING ""•"*""""' 1 NONDURABLE MAf<^UFACTURING _ 8 "'"•""""" "l lll lfllU , , , . , , , , t,,,,,,.! s __ 16 GOVERNMENT •^ r^ ^ CO NTRACT CONS TRUCT1ON _,...._...*— 4 12 V J*- 8 ii i i i i ! i i i i i 1971 I I i ' i i I 1 I I1 1972 1 I ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 ! ! 1973 2 «,,,,,!,,,,, 1971 1 I L . I It1 1974 , ,, ,,1 1 1 1 ,1 i . i i i 1 i i i i. 1972 1973 ( I ! 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1h 1974 H COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT C F LABOR l [Thousands of wage and salary workers; seasonally adjusted] N onmanu facturinj ? (private) Manufa eturing ( private) Period Total 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 __ ._ 1973 1973: June. July... Aug.. Sept.. Oct__ Nov. Dec._ 1974: Jan.. Feb.. Mar__ Apr.. May. June3* July" 67, 915 70, 284 70, 593 70, 645 72, 764 75, 567 75, 526 75, 478 75, 747 75, 961 76, 363 76, 679 76, 626 76, 526 76, 813 76, 804 76, 941 77, 136 77, 073 76, 951 NonDurable durable goods goods T~v Total 19, 781 20, 167 19, 349 18, 529 18, 933 19, 820 19, 856 19, 804 19, 861 19, 882 20, 016 20, 095 20, 090 20, 006 19, 904 19, 851 19, 921 19, 942 19, 951 19, 867 1 -I 11, 626 11, 895 11, 195 10, 565 10, 8^4 11,633 11, 654 11, 646 11,692 11, 708 11, 802 11,859 11,859 11, 774 11, 683 11, 644 11, 733 11, 746 11, 778 11, 730 8, 155 8, 272 8, 154 7, 964 8, 049 8, 186 8, 202 8, 158 8, 169 8, 174 8,214 8, 236 8,231 8,232 8, 221 8,207 8, 188 8, 196 8, 173 8, 137 Total Con- Trans- Whole- Finance insurtract portasale tion ance, Services Federal State Mining conand and and and struc- public retail local i real tion utilities trade estate 36, 288 37, 915 38, 709 39, 261 40, 541 42, 089 42, Oil 42, 079 42, 249 42, 423 42, 601 42, 746 42, 649 42, 636 42, 915 42, 910 42, 913 43, 058 42, 996 42, 953 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural «sstfthH<5hinents who worked during or received pay for any part oi the pay period 'neiudes the 12th oi the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed permiestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from >le not comparable with estimates oi nonagricuitural employment of the labor force, shown on p. 10. which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants: which count persons as employed when they Cover nment 606 619 623 602 607 625 629 631 634 633 639 644 646 654 656 655 659 664 666 674 3,285 3, 435 3, 381 3, 411 3, 521 3,648 3, 654 3,680 3,676 3,700 3,694 3,711 3, 732 3, 636 3, 757 3,725 3,659 3, 662 3, 602 3, 500 4,310 4, 429 4, 493 4, 442 4, 495 4, 611 4, 597 4, 598 4,617 4, 629 4, 671 4, 654 4, 644 4, 684 4, 691 4, 676 4, 668 4, 664 4,648 4, 637 14, 084 14, 639 14, 914 15, 142 15, 683 16, 288 16, 262 16, 294 16, 352 16, 388 16, 465 16, 520 16, 398 16, 417 16, 472 16, 487 16, 549 16, 594 16, 575 16, 612 3,382 3, 564 3,688 3, 796 3,927 4, 053 4, 049 4,048 4, 064 4,078 4,088 4, 095 4, 101 4, 109 4, 124 4, 127 4, 130 4, 145 4, 142 4, 133 10, 623 11, 229 11,612 11, 869 12, 309 12, 866 12, 820 12, 828 12, 906 12, 995 13, 044 13, 122 13, 128 13, 136 13, 215 13, 240 13, 248 13, 329 13, 363 13, 397 2,737 2,758 2,705 2,664 2, 650 2,627 2,613 2,588 2, 599 2, 613 2,626 2,638 2,654 2,651 2,670 2,675 2,681 2,698 2,684 2,664 9, 109 9,444 9,830 10, 191 10, 640 11, 031 11, 046 11, 007 11, 038 11, 043 11, 120 11, 200 11, 233 11, 233 11, 324 11, 368 11, 426 11, 438 11, 442 11, 467 are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on a sampla of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based oa reports from employing establishments. Source: Department of Labor. 13 WEEKLY HOURS OF WORK -SELECTED The seasonally adjusted average workweek of private nonfarm payroll employees increased by 0.2 hour to 36.V hours in July, increased hours in manufacturing (0.2 hour) more than offset a decline in retail trade (0.1 hour). HOURS PER WEEK (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) HOURS PER WEEK (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 46 461 MANUFACTURING TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL PRIVATE 44 44 42 42 40 40 38 38 36 36 34 34 1971 1972 1973 1974 1 1971 1972 1973 1974 42 CONTRACT RETAIL TRAC>E CONSTRUCTION A(\ •30 •5Z "\A ** ' """ ^Y~ •39 30 1971 I 1972 1973 A I ! V 1974 1 I 1 I ! 1 1971 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 t I 1 1 ! 1 1 1 .1 ! ! ! I I 1972 I 1 1973 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1 1 || 1 I 1 ! 1 ! 1 N 1974 N COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 1 [Average hours per week ] Total nonagricultural2 private Period Manufacturing Contract construction Retail trade 3 Total nonagricultural2 private Dec 1974: Jan Feb Mar __ _ Apr. _ May— June "_ July" _ _ 1 __ 38. 8 38. 6 3a o i _ _ _ 37. 8 37. 7 37. 1 37. 0 37. 2 37. 1 37.4 37. 6 37.5 37.3 37. 0 37. 0 37. 2 36.4 36. 6 36.6 36.3 36. 6 37.0 37.3 41. 2 41. 3 40. 6 40.7 40. 6 39.8 39. 9 40.6 40. 7 40. 9 40. 5 40. 5 41. 0 40. 7 40.8 41.2 40. 0 40. 1 40. 3 39. 1 40. 3 40. 4 40. 1 Data relate to production workers or nonsupervisory employees. 2 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 13. Includes eating and drinking places. 8 14 Contract construction Retail trade 3 Seasonalh7 adjusted Unad usted 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1973: J u n e _ _ _ _ _ _ _ July Aug _ _ Sept Oct _ Nov Manufacturing 37. 4 37. 6 37. 7 37. 4 37.9 37. 4 37. 3 37.0 37. 2 38. 1 38. 4 38. 3 37. 9 37. 7 37. 5 36. 6 34. 9 36.4 36. 7 36. 0 36. 9 37.8 38. 0 36. 6 35. 9 35. 3 34 7 34.2 33. 8 33. 7 33.6 33. 2 33. 8 34 3 34 1 33.2 32. 8 32. 8 33. 2 32. 3 32.4 32.4 32. 7 32. 5 33.2 33. 9 37. 1 87. 2 37. 0 37. 2 37. 0 37. 1 37. 0 36.7 37. 0 36. 8 36. 6 36. 8 36. 7 36. 9 Source: Department of Labor. 40.6 40. 7 40.5 40.8 40. 6 40. 6 40. 7 40.3 40.5 40.4 39. 3 40.3 40. 1 40.3 37. 4 37. 5 37. 1 36. 7 36. 9 38. 5 37. 2 36. 2 37. 7 37. 1 36. 2 36.9 37.1 $7.1 S3. 5 33. 2 33. 0 S3. 2 33. 0 S3. 1 32. 9 32. 8 33. 0 32. 9 33. 1 ®0> Q O&. tf 32. 9 $2.8 AVERAGE HOURLY AND WEEKLY EARNINGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES erage hourly earnings (not seasonally adjusted) of private nonagricultural workers increased by 1 cent (2.9 percent ual rate) to $4.19 in July. This is an increase of 29 cents (7.4 percent) over the previous July. DOLLARS .DOLLARS AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS 280 7.00. CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION \X^\ w 240 400 ,N CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION V v y^ T / yAV/ 200 V" 5.0.0 MANUFACTURING 160 4.00 TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL PRIVATE TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL PRIVATE 120 3.00 RETAIL TRADE RETAIL TRADE 80 2.0.0 1971 l^ 1974 1973 1972 1972 1974 1973 .SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [For production workers or nonsupervisory employees] Average he)urly earniiigs— curre at dollars Period Total nonagricultural private l Manufacturing 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 _ __ _ 1972 _ 1973 ___ 1973: June July Aug Sept Oct ___ _ Nov Dec_ _ $2. 45 2. 56 2. 68 2. 85 3. 04 3 22 3. 43 3.65 3.89 3. 87 3. 90 3. 91 3. 99 3. 99 4. 00 4. 01 $2. 61 2. 72 2. 83 3. 01 3. 19 3. 36 3. 56 3. 81 4. 07 4. 04 4. 06 4. 06 4. 13 4. 14 4. 16 4. 21 1974: Jan_ _ _ _ Feb Mar_ _ _ Apr _ May v June July *>__ _ 4. 02 4. 04 4. 06 4. 07 4. 14 4. 18 4. 19 4. 21 4. 21 4. 24 4. 25 4. 33 4. 38 4. 40 1 2 Also includes other Includes eating and A Contract construction $3. 70 3. 89 4. 11 4. 41 4. 79 5. 24 (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) C5) (5) (5) (5) 6.68 6.77 Retail trade 2 $1. 82 1. 91 2. 01 2. 16 2. 30 2. 44 2. 57 2. 70 2.87 2.86 2. 86 2. 87 2. 92 2. 93 2. 94 2. 94 2. 99 2.99 3. 01 3.01 3. 08 3. 10 3. 10 private industry groups shown on p. 13. drinking places. *- djusted to exclude the effects of overtime and interindustry shifts. 38-570°—74 3 Manufsicturing Indus?tries Adjusted Average weekly hourly Retail earnearnings, 2 trade ings, 1967 i no s dollars 4 92. 6 $113. 79 $66. 61 95. 7 115. 58 68. 57 114. 90 100. 0 70. 95 117. 57 74. 95 106. 2 112. 6 117. 95 78. 66 82. 47 114. 99 119. 6 86. 61 117. 10 127. 5 90. 72 135.4 123. 46 95. 28 '; j 143. 4 124. 15 142. 4 96. 67 124. 80 96. 10 143. 2 123. 91 96. 87 143. 9 121.71 96. 94 124. 97 145. 2 96. 10 145. 9 123. 35 96. 43 146. 7 123. 35 96. 61 148. 3 125. 23 Average ^reekly earn ings— cummt dollars Total nonagricultural private l $95. 06 98. 82 101. 84 107. 73 114. 61 119. 46 126. 91 135. 78 144. 32 144. 74 146. 64 146. 63 148. 83 147. 63 148. 00 149. 17 146. 147. 148. 147. 151. 154. 156. 33 86 60 74 52 66 29 Manufacturing Contract construction $107. 53 112. 34 114. 90 122. 51 129. 51 133. 73 142. 04 154. 69 165. 65 165. 24 164. 43 164. 43 169. 33 168. 50 169. 73 173. 45 $138. 146. 154. 164. 181. 195. 168. 40 168. 82 170. 87 166. 18 174. 50 176. 95 176. 44 5 (5) (5) () 5 (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) () (5) 38 26 95 93 54 98 (5) (5) 5 ( ) (5) (5) 252. 50 257. 26 96. 58 96. 88 97. 52 98. 43 100. 10 102. 92 105. 09 149. 1 149. 7 150. 4 151. 7 153.4 155. 0 155. 7 * Earnings in current dollars divided by the consumer price index. 5 Series being corrected. Data not yet available. Source: Department of Labor. 120. 119. 119. 115. 119. 120. 118. 54 31 41 40 85 29 98 15 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Industrial production (seasonally adjusted) was about unchanged in July for the second month in a row. Among the major market groups, only final products (both consumer goods and equipment) increased. Index, 1967 =100 {SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) Index, 1967 = 100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) UTILITIES AND MINING TOTAL 140 160 UTILITIES 120 140 100 120 MINING 80 ' I I I I I ! I I I I I I M I I I 1M I t t I I M I 11I 11 II I I I 1I \ 1I I 100 I i i i i i I i i ILyi i i f i i I i t 1971 1974 1973 1972 1971 1973 1972 1974 MARKET GROUPS 140 140 - INTERMEDIATE PRODUCTS 120 MATERIALS FINAL PRODUCTS 100 i 1971 1974 1972 1973 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Total industrial production Period 1966_ 1967 1968 1969_ 1970 1971 1972 1973 1973: June. July. Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1974: Jan Feb Mar Apr ___ May__ June v July** _- _ _ 97.9 100.0 105. 7 110.7 106. 6 106. 8 115. 2 125. 6 125. 6 126. 7 126. 4 126. 8 127. 0 127. 5 126.5 125. 5 124. 7 124. 7 124. 9 125. 7 125.6 125.7 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967= 100, seasonally adjusted] Industry 98. 3 100. 0 105. 7 110. 5 105.2 105. 2 114. 0 125. 1 125.6 126. 5 126. 1 126. 3 126. 4 127. 4 126. 4 125. 3 124. 5 124. 6 124. 8 125. 6 125. 3 125.5 NonDurable durable 99. 0 100. 0 105. 5 110. 0 101.4 99. 4 108. 4 122. 0 123.0 123. 8 122. 6 123. 3 123. 6 124. 3 123. 1 121. 0 119. 4 120.4 120. 7 122. 2 121. 8 122. 1 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 16 Market Fiilal produc3tS Mtinufacturi ng Total 1974 97. 3 100. 0 106. 0 111. 1 110. 6 113. 5 122. 1 129. 7 129. 3 130. 6 130. 9 130.7 130. 4 131. 3 131. 2 131. 4 131. 5 131. 0 130.4 130.7 130.4 130.5 Mining Utilities 98. 4 100. 0 103. 9 107. 2 109. 7 107.0 108. 8 110. 3 109. 5 111.0 111. 5 111. 8 111. 9 111. 3 110. 4 109. 9 111. 7 112. 2 111. 3 111. 6 110. 8 111.7 93. 6 100. 0 109. 4 119. 5 128. 3 133. 9 143. 4 152. 6 151. 6 154. 8 154. 8 155. 8 156. 2 154. 6 147. 6 144. 9 146. 1 146. 5 148. 7 149. 2 149. 5 149.9 Total 96. 1 100. 0 105. 8 109. 0 104. 5 104. 7 111. 9 121. 3 121. 3 122. 1 121. 4 122. 4 122. 7 123. 6 122. 6 121. 3 120. 6 121. 0 120. 8 122. 5 121. 8 122. 3 Consumer goods 98. 6 100. 0 106. 6 111. 1 110. 3 115. 7 123. 6 131.7 131. 9 132. 9 131. 2 132. 3 132. 6 133. 5 131. 3 129. 2 128. 3 128. 5 128. 5 130. 3 129. 4 130. 0 Equipment 93. 0 100. 0 104.7 106. 1 96. 3 89. 4 95. 5 106.7 106. 6 107. 3 107. 6 108. 5 108. 9 110. 1 110. 1 109. 8 109. 9 110. 1 110. 1 111.8 111. 3 111.4 Intermediate Mateproducts rials 99. 2 100. 0 105. 7 112. 0 111. 7 112. 5 121. 1 131.0 132. 0 132. 5 132. 1 131. 0 130. 6 131. 1 129. 1 129. 2 129. 1 128. 1 129. 4 128. 0 129. 1 128. 2 99. 8 100. 0 105. 7 112. 4 107. 7 107. 4 117.4 129. 3 129. 0 130. 9 130. 9 131. 3 131. 1 131. 5 130. 6 129. 7 128. 3 128. 9 128. 7 129.2 129. 4 129. 3 IODUCTION OF SELECTED MANUFACTURES /lost durable and nondurable manufactures (seasonally adjusted) had small production gains in July. However^ sizable gains occurred in transportation equipment and primary metals. Index, 1967 =100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) Index, 1967=100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 120 TEXTILES, APPAREL, AND LEATHER 100 1971 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted] Durat>le manufoictures Period Primary metals 1966 1967 1968 _ _ _ _ 1969 _ _ _ _ 1970 1971 _ 1972 1973 Ncmdurable manufactu res FabriTranspor- Lumber Textiles, cated Machin- tation and apparel, ery metal equipprodand products ment leather ucts 108. 8 100. 0 103. 2 114. 1 106. 9 100. 9 113. 1 127.0 100. 5 100. 0 106. 3 113. 6 109. 4 107. 4 114. 8 130. 5 98. 6 100. 0 101. 9 106. 8 100. 3 96. 2 107. 5 125.8 101. 2 100. 0 109. 7 107. 6 90.4 92. 9 99. 0 109. 1 98. 4 100. 0 104. 8 108. 6 106. 3 113. 9 122. 4 127. 9 101. 100. 104. 105. 100. 100. 108. 115. 1973: June _ _ _ _ _ _ ___ _ Julv _ Aug _ _ _ ______ Sept _ _ _ Oct Nov Dec 124. 5 128. 1 125. 6 127. 8 128. 7 128.9 130. 7 133. 133. 133. 131. 132. 133. 130. 126. 127. 128. 130. 129. 130. 130. 9 6 5 0 3 4 9 112. 2 112. 1 105. 7 107. 3 108.8 109. 8 103. 0 126. 6 125. 4 128.4 128. 9 127. 4 127. 3 126. 3 1974: Jan Feb Mar 129.5 125. 0 125. 3 124. 0 126. 8 127. 5 128. 2 131. 4 130. 6 131. 6 131. 3 131. 9 132. 1 132. 0 128. 6 127.2 128. 4 128. 2 129. 4 129. 4 129. 6 95. 7 93. 9 95. 0 97. 8 100. 6 98. 4 99.2 126. 1 127. 1 126. 1 126. 8 126. 8 126. 1 Apr May June v July* __ _ _ __ _ 4 5 8 5 4 1 0 Paper Chemicals, Foods and petroprint- leum, and tobacco rubber ing 98. 9 100.0 104. 2 109. 1 107. 8 107. 8 116. 1 122. 2 94. 1 100. 0 109. 6 118. 4 118. 2 124. 7 137. 8 149. 3 97. 0 100. 0 103. 6 107. 5 110. 8 113. 7 117. 6 121. 9 115. 0 114. 5 115. 4 117. 5 116. 8 116. 7 118. 8 122. 123. 124. 122. 121. 121. 121. 8 8 5 1 3 9 2 149. 8 151. 8 151. 0 150. 9 151. 1 151. 6 151. 6 119. 5 121. 3 122. 0 122. 2 121. 7 124. 7 123.0 116. 2 115. 3 112. 4 109. 3 109. 5 108. 0 108.4 121. 7 122. 2 122. 5 121. 2 121. 3 122.6 122. 3 151. 5 151. 2 151. 2 153. 5 152. 9 153. 1 153.2 125. 126. 125. 124. 126. 124. 124. 7 0 9 9 2 7 1 0 4 2 3 3 1 7 9 'iree: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 WEEKLY INDICATORS OF PRODUCTION Most weekly indicators of production (not seasonally adjusted) declined in July. MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS MILLIONS OF TONS 6 A M . 1 . M I . t i . I M . I . . . I . . t .111 . . I . . . . J F M A M I. . . I .., I » . . .1 ... J BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS 50 ELECTRIC POWER 40 30 100 1972 20 y 0 M I I I 1 I I I I t M I I t M I II J F M A I I I I I I I H I I I I M M J J SOURCES: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, AND WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS Period Weekly average: 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 _ _ 1972 1973 f 1973: June _ _ July- _ Aug _ Sept_ _ _ Get Nov___ _ _ Dec 1974: Jan. Feb Mar __ Apr May. June15 July Week ended: 1974: July 8 13 20 27 Aug 3 10 " 17 » includes data for Alaska. 18 Steel p rodueed Index Thousands (1967= of net 100) tons A S O N D COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Electric Bituminous Freight Paperboard Car s and triicks power coal mined produced loaded distributed (thousands (thousands (thousands assemb led (thoiisands) (millions of of short of tons) of cars) Total Cars Trucks kilowatt-hours) tons) l 2, 440 2, 515 2, 709 9 522 2, 310 2, 549 2, 892 2, 911 2, 781 2,750 2, 857 2, 906 2, 934 2, 878 2, 873 2, 900 2,880 2, 900 2, 879 2, 840 2, 750 100. 0 103. 1 111. 0 103. 4 94. 7 104.5 118. 5 119. 3 114. 0 112. 7 117. 1 119. 1 120. 3 118. 0 117. 8 118. 8 118. 0 118. 9 118. 0 116. 4 112. 7 23, 169 25, 244 27, 588 29, 317 30, 923 33, 540 35, 834 38, 061 39, 417 39, 783 36, 572 34, 762 34, 336 34, 911 35, 150 35, 617 34, 224 33, 302 34, 885 37, Oil 39; 982 10, 627 10, 485 10, 779 11, 595 10, 619 11,450 11, 346 10, 693 9, 788 12, 090 12, 054 12, 175 11, 530 11, 111 11, 348 12, 201 12, 078 12, 396 12, 534 11, 759 11, 051 540 543 543 522 486 502 525 547 503 543 543 564 536 487 491 524 529 525 532 542 500 439 479 507 489 501 548 569 582 525 586 543 590 577 512 505 584 595 594 590 589 536 172.9 207.6 195. 8 158. 9 204. 8 217. 3 243. 5 280. 1 216. 6 151. 5 234. 3 269. 2 257. 4 177. 0 189. 1 200. 1 196. 1 208. 9 217. 4 220. 3 166. 6 142. 4 170.1 158. 1 125. 9 165. 0 169. 6 185. 8 216. 7 164. 4 106. 5 179. 0 208. 8 198. 5 129. 0 133. 1 141. 1 139. 2 153. 1 160. 1 163. 2 115. 9 30.5 37.5 37. 8 33. 0 39. 8 47. 6 57. 7 63.3 52. 2 45. 0 55. 3 60. 5 58. 9 48. 0 56. 0 59. 0 56.8 55. 8 57.2 57. 1 50. 6 2, 780 2, 760 2,786 2, 758 2, 719 2,733 2, 676 113. 9 113. 1 114. 2 113. 0 111. 4 112. 0 109. 7 37, 715 40, 513 41, 466 40, 119 40, 098 37, 865 39, 299 6,270 11, 960 12, 295 12, 320 12, 410 12, 100 426 504 521 524 526 503 518 517 460 557 572 572 573 157. 5 178. 7 176.4 176. 7 143. 6 100. 9 116. 1 114. 8 125. 9 121. 5 124. 3 93. 2 69. 0 84. 0 42. 7 52. 8 54. 9 52. 3 50. 3 31. 8 3:2. 1 Sources: Americaii Iron and fc Institute, IMison Electrie Institu te, Dep steel merit of the Int erior, Associatic n of American Railroads, iAmerican P riper Insi,*tute, and Ward s Automotive IDeports. „ JW CONSTRUCTION According to preliminary estimates, expenditures for new construction (seasonally adjusted) declined slightly in June. All of the decline was in the private sector. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 160 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 20 60 ALL OTHER PRIVATE 40 20. 1968 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF CO/AMERCE Period 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 Total new construction expenditures 87. 1 93. 9 94. 9 110. 0 124. 1 135. 4 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Private Total 59. 5 66. 0 66.8 80. 1 93.9 102.9 Resic ential CommerNew cial and housing Total i industrial units Bi [lions of dol ars 24. 0 30. 6 13. 8 33.2 16. 2 25. 9 24. 3 16. 3 31. 9 17. 0 43. 3 35. 1 54. 3 18.1 44.9 57. 6 47. 8 21.7 Other Federal, State, and local 15. 1 16. 6 18. 6 19. 8 21.5 23. 6 27. 6 28. 0 28. 1 29. 9 30.2 32. 6 22. 8 23. 1 23. 4 24. 0 24.0 23. 8 24. 5 24. 6 24. 5 25. 3 25. 2 25. 7 26. 1 25. 9 26. 1 32. 4 32. 6 31. 5 31. 6 31.9 33. 2 33. 2 33. 4 33. 1 34. 8 37. 5 36. 4 39. 0 36. 7 36.7 Seasonall' ./ adjusted arinual rates 1973: Apr May _ June July Aug Sept_. Oct__ Nov Dec 1974: Jan- _ Feb Mar Apr___ Mav * i June y 134. 0 134. 5 134. 7 137. 2 137. 4 137. 3 136. 4 135. 6 133. 2 132. 5 136. 3 135. 5 137. 8 136. 4 136.0 101. 7 101. 9 103. 2 105. 6 105. 5 104. 1 103. 2 102. 2 100. 1 97.6 98.8 99.0 98.8 99. 7 99. 3 58. 4 57.6 58. 2 59. 1 59. 3 58. 0 56. 2 54. 5 52. 3 49. 8 49. 1 49. 2 49. 6 49. 7 49. 5 49. 0 49. 3 49. 7 49. 7 49. 5 48. 2 46.2 44. 2 42. 1 39. 8 38. 9 39. 1 39. 3 39. 8 39. 5 nciucles nonhousefceeping residential construction and additions and alterauiuas, not shown separately. „, 2 F, W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index an beginning 1971 for floor space. 20. 5 21. 2 21. 6 22. 5 22. 2 22. 3 22. 5 23. 1 23. 2 22. 6 24. 5 24. 2 23. 2 24. 0 23. 8 Construetio n contracts 2 CommerTotal value cial and index, industrial (1967= floor space 100) (millions of square feet) 113. 2 123. 7 123. 1 145. 4 165.3 181.3 779 883 743 727 854 1, 021 Seasonally Seasonally adjusted adjusted annual rates 177 1,012 173 183 175 199 182 191 194 161 155 187 181 167 188 166 988 1,027 1, 161 1, 118 1,029 1, 106 1, 047 815 885 968 878 1, 003 924 909 Sources: Department of Commerce and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. 19 NEW HOUSING STARTS AND APPLICATIONS FOR FINANCING Housing starts dropped 16 percent in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,335,000 units—the lowest rate since May 1970. Permits for future housing also declined. MILLIONS OF UNITS 3.0 MILLIONS OF UNITS 3.0 1.0 1968 1974 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS .SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF. HOUSING AND URBAN. DEVELOPMENT. AND VETERANS' ADMINISTRATION [Thousands of units] Houssing star bs Period 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1973: June _ _ _ _ _ July Aug.. Sept Oct... Nov _ _ _ __ _ Dee__ _ _ _ 1974: Jan_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Feb Mar Apr May June v July *> 1 2 Total Total private and private public (includ(including ing farm) farm) 1, 545. 1, 499. 1, 469. 2, 084. 2, 378. 2, 057. 4 5 0 5 5 5 1, 507. 6 1, 466. 8 1, 433. 6 2, 052. 2 2, 356. 6 2, 045. 3 203.4 203. 2 199. 9 148. 9 149. 5 134.6 90. 6 86. 2 109. 6 127. 2 160. 9 149. 9 148. 8 127. 0 202. 6 202. 6 197. 2 148. 4 147. 1 133. 3 90. 4 84. 5 109. 4 124. 8 159. 5 149. 0 147. 0 126. 4 Private p Total 0 ncluding farm) Total One unit 899.4 1, 507. 6 810.6 1, 466. 8 812. 9 1,433.6 j2, 052. 2 1, 151. 0 2, 356. 6 1, 309. 2 2, 045. 3 1, 132. 0 2, 152 2, 152 2,030 1,844 1,674 1,675 1,403 1,464 1, 922 1, 499 1, 630 1,471 1, 590 1, 335 1, 140 1,232 1,108 990 957 938 767 793 1, 056 962 996 931 1,012 941 Units are for 1- to 4-family housing. Authorized by issuance of local building permit: in 14,000 permit-issuing places beginning 1972; 13,000 for 1967-71; 12,000 for 1963-66; and 10,000 prior to 1963. 20 Proposeid home construiction 3 Gover nment home pi•ograms (nonf arm) Two or VA more FHA* units 608. 2 147. 7 56. 1 656. 2 153. 6 51. 2 233. 5 61. 0 620. 7 301.2 901. 2 94.0 198.4 104.0 1, 047. 5 913.3 73.6 86. 1 Seasona lly ad jus ;ed annu al 1,013 79 89 88 920 81 921 69 92 854 66 71 52 62 718 57 57 737 68 636 37 61 39 671 64 48 866 72 48 537 74 634 41 79 63 540 75 57 578 74 394 New private housing units authorized 2 1, 353. 4 1, 323. 7 1, 351. 5 1, 924. 6 2, 218. 9 1, 795. 5 rates 2,070 1,814 1, 777 1,656 1, 379 1, 361 1,285 1,282 1,325 1,410 1, 296 1, 120 1, 106 1, 043 Applica- Requests tions for forVA FHA commit- appraisals ments l 168. 9 187. 6 315. 0 366.8 225. 2 83.2 99 92 69 94 51 56 30 46 62 71 71 89 91 131. 138. 143. 217. 209. 161. 7 2 7 9 4 9 166 136 141 137 142 134 124 124 163 144 150 157 185 159 3 Units represented by mortgage applications or appraisal requests for r home construction. Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of Housing and Ui Development, and Veterans Administration. BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—TOTAL AND TRADE imbined sales of manufacturers and trade firms (seasonally adjusted) declined slightly in June, following a rise of ,out 1 percent in May. Businessmen added $4.1 billion to the book value of their inventories. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED} (SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDI 260"! RETAIL .TRADEJENLARGED SCALE)' 40 20 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total tmsiness 1 Re3tail Wholesale Sales2 Sales 2 Sales2 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 89, 698 97, 100 103, 104 104, 706 112, 268 124, 231 143, 746 145, 164 155, 376 166, 813 174, 875 183, 622 196, 002 221, 357 17, 099 18, 329 19, 726 20, 554 22, 280 24, 850 30, 405 21, 557 22, 528 24, 363 26, 604 28, 916 31, 732 36, 926 26, 151 28, 490 29, 824 31, 294 34, 071 37, 365 41, 943 8,348 9, 268 9,626 9, 524 10, 985 12, 472 14, 190 1973: May June July_ _ Aug Sept _ Oct Nov Dec 1974: Jan Feb Mar Apr Mav June v July * 141, 774 141, 334 145, 467 145, 337 145, 321 149, 469 152, 255 150, 643 154, 217 156, 203 159, 584 161, 037 162, 913 162, 402 204, 623 206, 961 208, 776 210, 548 212, 227 214, 284 217, 637 221, 357 224, 657 227, 726 230, 590 232, 586 236, 587 240, 702 29, 675 29, 528 30, 443 30, 692 30, 646 31, 918 33, 101 33, 910 34, 896 36, 091 37, 515 37, 704 36, 902 36, 745 33, 986 34, 148 34, 653 34, 964 35, 266 35, 379 36, 265 36, 926 37, 826 38, 501 39, 347 39, 293 40, 036 40, 634 41, 723 41, 167 42, 767 42, 355 42, 529 42, 970 42, 976 42, 116 42, 932 43, 134 43, 872 44, 283 44, 894 44, 491 46, 266 14, 299 13, 731 14, 409 14, 481 14, 267 14, 331 14, 090 13, 270 13, 525 13, 327 13, 660 13, 941 14, 289 14, 018 14, 901 Period 1 The term "business" also includes manufacturing (seepage 22). 2 Monthly average for year and total for month. Inventories 3 NonDurable durable goods Total goods stores stores Ivlillions of dollars, seasonally a d justed Inventories 3 Inventories s Nondurable goods stores Total Durable goods stores 17, 803 19, 222 20, 197 21, 770 23, 086 24, 893 27, 754 38, 952 41, 973 45, 376 46, 626 52, 261 56, 551 63, 561 17, 277 19, 167 20, 647 20, 345 23, 808 26, 034 28, 778 21, 675 22, 806 24, 729 26, 281 28, 453 30, 517 34, 783 27, 424 27, 436 28, 358 27, 874 28, 262 28, 639 28, 886 28, 846 29, 407 29, 807 30, 212 30, 342 30, 605 30, 473 31, 365 59, 012 59, 788 60, 213 60, 677 60, 847 61, 681 62, 937 63, 561 64, 261 64, 394 64, 743 64, 855 65, 615 66, 580 26, 661 27, 051 27, 494 27, 563 27, 507 27, 926 28, 662 28, 778 28, 852 28, 789 28, 578 28, 495 28, 499 28, 893 32, 351 32, 737 32, 719 33, 114 33, 340 33, 755 34, 275 34, 783 35, 409 35, 605 36, 165 36, 360 37, 116 37, 687 s Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. Source: Department of Commerce. 21 MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND NEW ORDERS Manufacturers* shipments and inventories (seasonally adjusted) increased in June while new orders declined a b The inventory-shipments ratio rose following 5 months of stability. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS {SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 140 INVENTORIES 120 TOTAL 100 DURABLE GOODS 80 NONDURABLE GOODS i i t I t t i i » ! t » i i i ! i t i... i n ...-""** NONDURABLE GOODS 40 , ,,,««iimimiH»«««**""1"i I 1 tltllllllMII"' V-i I I [ ! I t f 1 ! r t i 1.1 i t - » i - ; RATIO 2.00 INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO NONDURABLE GOODS 20 i i f r ! t i-I , i i i.i I i i I r i I t f r r i I i f ( t i 1971 f f t 1971 1974 SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturers' shipments1 Manufacijiirers' inv entories2 Manufacturers' inventory — shipments ratio3 Manufacturers' new orders i Durafc>le goods Period Total NonDurable durable goods goods Total NonDurable durable goods goods Total Total NonCapital durable goods industries, goods nondefense Millions of dollars , seasonally adjuste d 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972__ 1973 _„ 1973: June July Aug _. Sept _ _ Oct Nov _ _ Bee _ _ 1974: Jan _ _ _ _ Feb Mar _ _ Apr May _ June » July ' 1 Monthly 2 50, 282 53, 555 52, 859 55, 917 62, 017 71, 398 70, 639 72, 257 72, 290 72, 146 74, 581 76, 178 74, 617 76, 389 76, 978 78, 197 79, 050 81, 117 81, 166 27, 694 29, 459 28, 229 29, 948 33, 443 38, 724 38, 280 39, 788 38, 902 39, 248 40, 879 41, 055 39, 465 39, 994 40, 073 40, 635 41, 232 42, 538 42, 785 45, 029 22, 588 24, 096 24, 629 25, 969 28, 573 32, 674 32, 359 32, 469 33, 388 32, 898 33, 702 35, 123 35, 152 36, 395 36, 905 37, 562 37, 818 38, 579 38, 381 90, 875 97, 074 101, 645 102. 445 107, 719 120, 870 113, 025 113, 910 114, 907 116, 114 117, 224 118, 435 120, 870 122, 570 124, 831 126, 500 128, 438 130, 936 133, 488 59, 112 63, 371 66, 768 66, 050 70, 218 79, 441 73, 801 74, 278 75, 213 76, 249 76, 951 77, 645 79, 441 80, 541 81, 925 83, 014 84, 108 85, 715 87, 313 average for year and total for month. Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. *For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly 22 31, 763 33, 703 34, 877 36, 395 37, 501 41, 429 39, 224 39, 632 39, 694 39, 865 40, 273 40, 790 41, 429 42, 029 42, 906 43, 486 44, 330 45, 221 46, 175 50, 243 53, 646 52, 118 55, 726 62, 922 73, 836 74, 291 74, 288 75, 407 74, 024 77, 025 78, 601 76, 292 78, 139 79, 127 79, 547 82, 059 85, 264 85, 176 27, 666 29, 549 27, 486 29, 745 34, 274 41, 098 41, 946 41, 840 41, 983 41, 154 43, 304 43, 475 41, 027 41, 515 42, 267 41, 974 44, 124 46, 730 46, 848 47, 889 I 6, 971 7, 694 7, 055 7, 324 8,487 10, 310 10, 564 10, 571 10, 283 10, 389 10, 928 11, 160 10, 943 11, 003 11, 415 11, 300 11, 925 11, 804 12, Oil 12, 820 22, 577 24, 097 24, 632 25, 981 28, 648 32, 738 32, 345 32, 448 33, 424 32, 870 33, 721 35, 126 35, 265 36, 624 36, 860 37, 573 37, 935 38, 534 38, 328 i 1.74 1. 76 I. 89 1. 82 1. 69 1. 58 1.60 1. 58 1. 59 1. 61 1. 57 1. 56 1. 62 1. 61 1. 62 1. 62 1. 62 1. 61 L 64 ! shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end ol month to shipments for month. Source: Department of Commerce. JERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS the U.S. merchandise trade deficit deepened in July to $728 million (seasonally adjusted)/ as exports remained large, about unchanged from June, while imports, led by the rise in value of imports of crude materials and fuels, rose to a record high level of over $9 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1974 1968 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Millions of dollars ] Merch andise iinports filerchandise expor ts Total (includGen eral irnpc>rts 3 Domesti c exports3 1 ing ree xports) 2 Food, Crude ManuFood, Crude To tal bever- matefacSeason- Unad- Total i 2 bever- materials tured Season- Unadrials ages, ages, ally ad- justed goods ally ad- justed and to- and and to- and justed justed fuels bacco fuels bacco Monthly average: 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 2,458 2,586 2, 839 3, 111 3, 555 3,629 4, 102 5,902 2,421 2, 554 2, 802 3, 066 3,502 3, 576 4,035 5,811 432 392 383 370 422 423 547 1,078 367 394 405 417 558 537 591 895 1, 602 1, 737 1, 985 2,232 2,445 2,537 2, 813 3,728 2, 135 2, 241 2, 769 3, 004 3, 329 3,797 4, 632 5,790 5,860 5,331 5,785 5, 965 6, 751 7, 100 6,921 6,832 7,298 8, 520 8,381 8,427 8, 328 7, 656 5, 756 5, 249 5, 682 5, 886 6, 635 7, 008 6,837 6,750 7,207 8, 406 8,256 8,296 8,212 7, 554 1, 023 980 1,294 1,285 1, 327 1, 513 1,385 1,289 1,244 1, 336 1,277 1, 195 1, 182 1, 172 873 755 767 694 984 1, 115 1, 104 1, 072 1,268 1, 376 1,427 1,427 1,360 1,238 Total excludes Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military sup-~js and equipment under the Military Assistance Program. 2 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. 8 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. 476 447 503 533 545 606 737 1, 120 1, 204 1, 313 1, 719 1,918 2, 159 2,535 3, 147 3,750 323 345 70 107 225 — 168 — 530 112 Unad; usted U nad juste d 1973: June _ _ 5, 728 July 5,866 Aug 6, 042 Sept 6, 4^0 Oct_ 6,586 Nov_ _ 6,879 Dec 6,949 7,111 1974: Jan F e b _ _ _ _ 7,606 Mar__ _ 7,674 Apr _ 8, 234 May 7,630 June 8,357 July 8, 807 \ 382 392 447 442 519 534 615 770 MerchanManutrade facbalance^ tured seasongoods ally adjusted 3, 727 3,388 3, 526 3,816 4, 196 4, 239 4,242 4,248 4, 563 5, 523 5,381 5,517 5, 501 4, 962 5, 775 5, 829 6,011 5, 644 5, 996 6, 684 6, 291 6, 467 7, 392 7, 845 8, 141 8,407 8, 613 9, 036 5, 911 5,659 6, 017 5, 307 6, 403 6, 845 5, 974 6, 650 6, 692 7, 823 8, 371 8,899 8, 557 9, 003 725 694 789 707 837 948 859 881 830 1, 015 937 939 900 901 1, 084 1, 007 1,220 1, 113 1, 317 1,438 1,496 1, 742 1, 989 2, 343 2, 811 2,885 2, 675 3, Oil 3,940 3, 804 3,852 3, 342 4; 089 4, 316 3, 463 3, 882 3, 718 4, 295 4,444 4, 902 4, 799 ! 4, 897 | -47 37 32 776 689 195 658 644 213 — 171 93 — 777 -256 -728 NOTE.—Data adjusted to include silver ore and bullion reported separately prior to 1969. Source: Department of Commerce. 23 U.S. BALANCES ON GOODS, SERVICES, AND TRANSFERS The U.S. current account was in approximate balance on a seasonally adjusted basis in the first quarter of 1974, i lowing a record high surplus in the last quarter of 1973. The disappearance of the surplus reflected largely the reemergence of the merchandise trade deficit due to higher cost of oil imports, a development that continued in the second quarter of 1974 when the merchandise deficit deepened to $1.7 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4 \'V*T \ MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE -3 1974 1968 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars] I M erchandis<3 12 Militjiry transactions Net iiivestment income Re- Net travel and Period Exports 1968 '33, 1969 __:36, 1970__ _ _ 41, 1971 42, 1972 48, 1973_._ _ 70, 626 414 947 754 768 277 Imports Net balance Direct expenditures Sales -32, 991 635 -4, 535 1,392 -35, 807 607 -4,856 1, 512 -39, 788 2, 159 -4, 855 1,478 — 45, 476 — 2, 722 -4,819 1,912 -55, 754 -6, 986 -4, 759 1 154 -69, 807 470 -4, 555 2, 354 1 1973:1 15,230—16,184 -954 -1,175 342 11 i!6, 679-17,042 -363 -1,209 446 III... |18, 152-17, 575 577 -1,067 520 IV 20, 216'-19?006 1,210 — 1, 104 1,046 j 1 1974: I 122, 2991-22, 373 -74 -1, 138 672 II «L__|24, 023-25, 732 -1, 709 1 2 1 Net balance transportation expenditures 3,143 4,207 63 -1,548 -3, 344 3,655 156 -1, 763 -3, 377 3,895 — 111 -2,023 -2, 908 5, 976 -955 -2, 341 -3, 604 6,413 -1,887 -3,055 -2, 201 8,298 -3, 008-2, 710 Seasonally adjusted 1, 766 2,034 2,388 2, 781 3, 110 3, 540 -833 -763 -547 -58 2,081 1,968 2,052 2, 197 -634 -760 -795 -819 -686 -781 -613 -630 841 815 984 901 -466 3,662 -761 -529 895 Excludes military grants. Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from net investment income and included in other services, net. 24 Private 3 U.S. Government Other services, 3 net mitBaltances, ance penon sions, goods and and other servuniices * 4 lateral transfers 1 1,980 -2, 943 1, 344 -2, 978 2,932 -3,256 -170 -3,647 -6, 009-3, 797 4, 543 -3,876 -193 -761 119 -1,056 1,683 -897 2,934 -1, 164 2,902 -2,930 Balance on current account -962 -1,633 -324 -3,817 -9,807 667 -954 -937 786 1,770 -28 4 Equal to net exportsof goods and services in the national income and product accounts oi the United States when converted to an annual rates basis. Source: Department of Commerce. 5. OVERALL BALANCES ON INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS rising liquid liabilities to foreigners, reflecting largely short-term investments in the United States by official agencies of petroleum exporting countries, caused the official reserve transactions balance to swing from a surplus in the first quarter to a seasonally adjusted deficit of $4.5 billion in the second quarter, and a deepening of the net liquidity balance deficit to $6.3 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BALANCE ON CURRENT ACCOUNT AND LONG-TERM CAPITAL 1968 1974 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] Period NonLong-ter m capital Balance liquid on flows5, net current shortterm account private U.S. and long- capital Govern- Private 2 term flows capital ment l net 2 -2, 164 231 1, 191 -1,935 -70 -3,637 -640 -1,933 -2, 025 - 1, 429 -3, 778 -482 -2, 362 -4,381 -10, 559 -2, 347 -98 — 11, 235 -1,541 -1,330 — 744 -4, 276 127 -1,539 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 Allocations of special drawing rights Errors and omissions, net Net liquidity balance Liquid private capital flows, net 2 Changes in liaOfficial reserve bilities to transactions foreign official balance agencies, net 3 3,252 1,641 94 -1, 611 8,820 -1,805 -6, 081 2,739 867 -458 -3,851 -5,988 -9, 839 717 -9,776 -21, 965 -7, 788-29, 753 3, 502 -10, 354 710 -1,790 -13,856 -2, 776 -7, 796 2,492 -5,304 Changes in U.S. official reserve assets, net 4 -880 15, -761 -1,552 -1, 187 16, 7,362 2,477 14, 2, 348 12, 27, 405 10, 322 32 13, 5,095 209 14, -371 319 -1,006 -1,663 94 315 -1, 158 -1,457 -398 1,529 1,917 97 -862 - 1, 406 -498 -1,253 1974: I 1,351 II*__ 1 Excludes liabilities ! 742 -4,085 -6, 754 -3,441 -10, 195 9,975 904 -1,710 -304 1, 997 287 -387 1,942 -1,929 1,626 316 792 3, 620 -959 2,661 -2, 646 2}065 -3,224 to foreign official reserve agencies. Private foreigners exclude the IMF. but include other international and regional organizations. ^Includes liabilities to foreign official agencies reported by U.S. Government and U.S. banks and U.S. liabilities to the IMF arising from reversible gold sales %nd gold deposits with, the United States. Consists of gold, special drawing rights, convertible currencies, and the U.S. tranche position in the IMF. Minus sign indicates increase. 290 -873 -6,277 710 964 487 167 151 378 Unadjusted Seassonally ad justed 1973:1 II III___ IV.. _. U.S. official reserve assets, net (end of 5 period) 1, 913 1,040 1,786 -4, 491 -830 4,849 220 17 -13 -15 — 210 -358 12, 12, 12, 14, 931 914 927 378 14, 588 14, 946 6 Includes increases as follows: for 1969, $67 million resulting from revaluation of the German mark in Oct. 1969; for 1971, $28 million in dollar value of foreign currencies revalued to reflect market exchange rates as of Dec. 31,1971; for second quarter and year 1972, $1,016 million resulting from change in par value of the dollar on May 8,1972; and for fourth quarter and year 1973, $1,436 million resulting from change in par value of the dollar on Oct. 18,1973. Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of the Treasury. 25 PRICES CONSUMER PRICES In July, the consumer price index rose 0.8 percent (also 0.8 percent seasonally adjusted). Food prices increased 0.1 percent (declined 0.4 percent seasonally adjusted). Nonfood commodity prices increased 1.0 percent (1.3 percent seasonally adjusted) and services prices rose 1.1 percent. INDEX, 1967 = 100 170 f INDEX, 1967 = 100 170 130 130 120 120 110 110 100 100 1968 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVSSifiS Period All items 1965 _ __ _ _ _ 1966 _ 1967 1968_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1969 1970 ___ 1971 1972 1973 1973: June July Aug Sept ... _ _ _ _ _ Oct Nov _ _ Dec__ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1974: Jan Feb__ 94. 5 97. 2 100. 0 104. 2 109. 8 116. 3 121. 3 125. 3 133. 1 132. 4 132.7 135. 1 135.5 136. 6 137. 6 138. 5 139. 7 141. 5 143. 1 144. 0 145. 6 147. 1 148. 3 Mar Apr Mav June Julv__ Source: Department of Labor. 26 [1967 = 100] Services Co mmoditie 5 CommLodities les>s food Services All All comFood Rent less Nonmodities All Durable durable services rent 95. 7 98. 2 100. 0 103. 7 108.4 113. 5 117. 4 120. 9 129. 9 129. 4 129. 7 132. 8 132. 8 133. 5 134. 7 135. 7 137.0 139. 3 141. 0 141. 9 143. 7 145. 2 146. 1 94. 4 99. 1 100. 0 103. 6 108.9 114. 9 118. 4 123. 5 141. 4 139. 8 140. 9 149. 4 148. 3 148. 4 150.0 151. 3 153. 7 157.6 159. 1 158. 6 159.7 160. 3 160. 5 96. 2 97.5 100. 0 103. 7 108. 1 112. 5 116. 8 119.4 123. 5 123. 7 123. 5 123. 8 124. 3 125. 4 126. 3 127. 1 127. 9 129. 2 131. 1 132. 8 134. 9 136. 8 138. 1 98.4 98. 5 100. 0 103. 1 107. 0 111. 8 116. 5 118. 9 121. 9 122. 3 122.4 122. 6 122. 6 123. 2 123. 3 123. 2 123. 3 123.4 124. 3 126. 1 128. 5 131. 2 133. 0 94.8 97.0 100. 0 104. 1 108. 8 113. 1 117. 0 119. 8 124. 8 124. 7 124.4 124. 7 125.5 127.0 128. 5 130. 0 131. 3 133. 5 136. 1 137. 7 139. 5 141. 0 141. 8 92.2 95. 8 100. 0 105. 2 112. 5 121. 6 128. 4 133. 3 139. 1 138. 1 138.4 139. 3 140.6 142. 2 143. 0 143. 8 144.8 145. 8 147.0 147. 9 149.4 150. 9 152. 5 96.9 98. 2 100. 0 102. 4 105. 7 110. 1 115. 2 119.2 124.2 124.0 124. 4 125. 0 125.4 125.9 126.3 126. 9 127. 3 128. 0 128. 4 128. 8 129. 3 129. 8 130. 3 91. 5 95. 3 100. 0 105. 7 113. 8 126. 7 130. 8 135. 9 141. 8 140. 7 141.0 141. 9 143.4 145. 2 146. 1 146.9 148.0 149. 1 150. 4 151.4 153. 1 154. 7 156. 0 HOLESALE PRICES e wholesale price index rose 3.9 percent in July (3.7 percent after adjustment for seasonal factors). Prices of farm ^.oducts and processed foods and feeds rose 6.8 percent (6.4 percent seasonally adjusted), following 4 consecutive monthly declines, industrial commodity prices were up 2.7 percent (also 2.7 percent seasonally adjusted), somewhat more than in June but about the same as the March-May average increase. Index, 1967=100 Index, 1967 =100 FARM PRODUCTS AND PROCESSED FOODS AND FEEDS 120 100 100 1974 I 1968 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of LABOR All commodities Period 1965 19G6 _ 1967 1968 __ _ _ 1969 1970 1971 ___ __ 1972 1973 1973: June_ July Aug _ Sept__ Oct.-_ NOT_ Dec__ 1974: Jan Feb Mar Apr _ May. June. Julv _ _ __ _ __ _ 96. 6 99. 8 100. 0 102. 5 106. 5 110. 4 113. 9 119. 1 134.7 136.0 134.3 142. 1 139. 7 138. 7 139.2 141.8 146. 6 149. 5 151. 4 152. 7 155.0 155. 7 161. 7 [1967=100] Farni products5 and processcid foods a nd feeds ProcFarm essed All inTotal dustriprodfoods als 1 and ucts feeds 97. 1 98.7 95. 5 96. 4 105. 9 103. 5 98. 5 101. 2 100. 0 100. 0 100. 0 100. 0 102. 4 102. 5 102. 5 102. 2 108. 0 109. 1 106. 0 107. 3 111. 0 112. 1 111. 7 110. 0 112. 9 113. 8 114. 0 114. 3 122. 4 125. 0 120. 8 117. 9 159. 1 176. 3 148. 1 125. 9 163. 6 182. 3 126. 0 151. 8 156. 9 173. 3 146. 5 126. 1 184. 5 126. 7 213. 3 166. 2 173. 5 127. 4 200. 4 156. 3 166. 8 188. 4 128. 5 153. 1 164. 4 184. 0 151. 9 130. 1 168. 0 132. 2 187. 2 155. 7 202. 6 162. 1 177. 8 135. 3 164. 7 180. 6 205. 6 138. 2 176. 2 197. 0 142. 4 163. 0 169. 6 186. 2 159. 1 146. 6 167.4 180. 8 150. 5 158. 9 168. 6 157. 4 153. 6 161. 7 172.7 180. 8 157. 8 167. 6 .Coverage of the subgroups does not correspond exactly to coverage of this bx. Excludes crude foodstuffs and feedstufis, plant and animal fibers, oilseeds, and tobacco. hidustrial c'ommodit es Crude materials 2 100. 9 104. 5 100. 0 102. 0 110. 6 118. 8 122. 7 131. 1 155. 2 152. 8 153. 5 156. 0 161. 0 164. 7 174. 2 179. 8 188. 2 202. 7 212. 2 224. 8 216. 5 217. 5 228. 9 Inter- Producmediate er finmateished rials 3 goods 96.9 98.9 100. 0 102. 6 106. 1 110. 0 114. 3 118. 9 128. 1 128. 6 128. 5 129. 3 130. 1 131. 0 132. 4 134. 8 137. 9 140. 6 145. 8 150. 8 156. 1 159. 6 164. 5 91 4 96. 8 100. 0 103. 5 106. 9 111. 9 116. 6 119. 5 123. 5 123. 4 123. 5 123. 9 124. 2 125. 1 125. 7 126. 7 128. 3 129. 3 130. 9 132. 4 135. 9 138. 7 141. 5 Consurner finished g Dods excludin 2, foods DurNonable durable 97. 9 98. 5 100. 0 102. 2 104. 0 107. 1 110. 9 113. 2 115. 8 115. 9 116. 1 116. 3 115. 8 116. 7 117. 0 117. 9 119. 6 120. 2 120. 9 122. 0 123.7 125. 0 126.8 95. 9 97. 8 100. 0 102. 2 105. 0 108. 2 111. 3 113. 6 120. 5 120. 2 120. 5 120. 9 121. 2 122. 6 124. 4 126. 6 130. 2 134. 0 137. 8 141. 2 144. 3 147. 7 150. 6 3 Excludes intermediate materials for food manufacturing and manufactured animal feeds; includes, in part, grain products for further processing. Source: Department of Labor. 27 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS After declining for 4 consecutive months, prices received by farmers increased 6 percent in the month ending July 1 5. Contributing most to the increase were higher prices for hogs, cattle, wheat, corn, soybeans, and eggs. Prices paid rose 1 percent. The actual parity ratio was up 3 points and the adjusted ratio up 4 points. Index, 1967=100 Index, 1967 =100 220 220 200 PRICES RECEIVED (ALL FARM PRODUCTS) PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES 140 120 100 RATIOJ/ 120 RATIO V 120 PARITY RATIO (ACTUAL) 100 100 l\. 90 ***** QA 70 ^0 ti»'>"**,Hiliiii*(l'3***''»iit»r> 1 ! 1 1 1 , ! 1 1 1 1 1968 1 T .»***'" ***«»»m»»»*t*il"F """*** ! 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1969 t 1 1 . 1 1 ""•""ov''<,.,,,,»,^ ^"^SIWtttiititi^^ttft...K|!!^ ^^^\ i i i 1i , . , . 1 1970 . . i i i 1 i . i t . i 1971 I ! , . ! . , . . . 1972 . . 1 . I I. 1 . . . 1 -s. \ 90 V ..... i ... i. 80 -70 1974 1973 j/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, T A X E S , AND WAGE RATES, ON 1910-14=100 BASE. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Prices paid by farmers Livestock All items, Family Producinterest, tion and living taxes, and items products wage rates items Index, 1967=100 94 94 96 95 98 105 98 99 100 100 100 100 102 104 104 104 106 117 109 109 114 114 110 118 120 119 116 115 124 122 127 134 138 146 179 145 149 174 138 146 148 181 138 146 157 218 141 151 142 154 150 198 142 188 153 150 152 153 183 146 179 154 156 147 149 193 161 157 153 161 159 190 162 179 161 155 164 157 167 169 159 166 158 165 142 160 168 166 161 155 170 168 Deceived by "armers Prices ] Period All farm products 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1973: June 15 Julv 15 Aug 15 Sept 15 Get 15 Nov 15 _ Dec 15 1974: Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 _ June 15 July 15 _ 98 105 100 103 108 110 112 _ __ _ __ 126 172 172 173 208 191 184 181 185 198 202 194 183 175 165 175 Crops 103 105 100 101 97 100 107 115 164 170 162 196 182 180 181 195 208 220 216 205 201 199 204 1 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates on 1910-14=100 base. 28 Parity ratio l Actual 77 80 74 73 74 72 69 74 88 87 88 102 95 91 89 90 94 94 90 83 79 74 77 Adjusted2 82 86 79 79 80 77 74 79 91 90 91 105 97 94 92 92 94 94 90 83 79 74 78 - The adjusted parity ratio reflects GovermiKnt payments made directl? farmers. Source: Department of Agriculture. MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK The seasonally adjusted money stock increased at an annual rate of 1.7 percent in July. From July 1973 to July 1974 it grew 5.1 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 400 400 360 200 200 160 1974 .1968 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Averages of daily figures, billions of dollars] ]>tlonev stoc k J^loney stoc k Time CurCurand DeDerency rency savings mand mand outTotal outTotal de- l ., dedeside side posits posits l posits l banks banks Period 1968: 1969: 1970: 1971: 1972: 1973: 1973: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec June July Aug_. Sept Oct Nov Dec 1974: Jan Feb Mar . _ _ __ _ _ Apr I May p June v . July __ Deposits at commercial banks. Note.—Series revised beginning 1974. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADViSERS 201. 208. 221. 235. 255. 271. 265. 266. 266. 265. 266. 269. 271. 270. 273. 275. 276. 277. 279. 280. 5 6 2 2 7 4 5 4 3 5 6 2 4 6 1 2 7 8 6 0 Seasonallyr adjusted 43. 4 158. 1 162. 5 46. 1 172. 2 49. 1 52. 6 182. 6 56. 9 198. 7 61. 7 209. 7 59. 4 206. 2 59. 5 206. 9 59. 8 206. 4 60. 2 205. 3 60.5 206. ] 61. 0 208. 2 61. 7 209. 7 61. 9 208. 7 62. 7 210. 4 63. 3 211. 9 63. 9 212. 8 64.4 213. 4 64. 8 214. 8 64. 9 215. 1 204. 2 194. 4 229. 2 270. 9 313. 3 363. 5 345. 9 349. 6 355. 1 358. 0 359. 1 360. 1 363. 5 370. 1 374. 7 377. 5 387. 1 394.4 399. 9 404. 3 207. 6 214. 7 227. 6 241. 9 263.0 279. 1 263. 6 265. 7 263. 0 264.0 266. 1 270. 9 279. 1 277. 8 270. 2 272. 5 278. 2 273. 1 277. 6 279.2 44. 3 46. 9 50. 0 53. 5 57.9 62. 7 59. 4 60.0 60. 0 60. 1 60. 4 61. 5 62. 7 61.6 61. 9 62. 7 63.5 64. 2 64. 9 65.4 Unadjustec i 163. 3 167. 7 177. 7 188. 4 205. 1 216. 4 204. 1 205. 7 202. 9 203. 8 205. 7 209. 5 216. 4 216. 2 208. 3 209. 8 214. 7 208. 9 212. 7 213.8 Time and savings deposits l |i 203. 2 193. 2 228. 1 269. 8 311.8 362. 2 344. 7 i 347. 8 356. 7 359.3 360. 3 359. 0 362. 2 369. 4 374. 3 379. 1 387. 1 393. 9 397. 9 402. 0 U.S. Government demand deposits 1 5. 0 5.6 7.3 6.9 7.4 6. 3 7 1 4. 1 6.5 5.3 6.0 4. 3 6. 3 8. 1 6. 6 6.4 6. 0 7.6 6.1 5.4 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 PRIVATE LIQUID HOLDINGS - NONFINANCIAL INVESTORS Private nonfinancial investors increased their holdings of liquid assets by $14 billion (seasonally adjusted) in JL Four-fifths of the increase is accounted for by currency and deposits. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200' BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 1,100 I - 1,100 1000 1,000 900 500 I 400 Hj I I I! I I! 400 I I 1 I M I f I ( t I ! II 1968 I 1974 1969 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Cummcy and <deposits Total liquid assets Period Time d eposits Tntal Currency Demand deposits ("Vim mercial banks 1967: 1968: 1969: 1970: 1971: 1972: 1973: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 643. 2 704. 2 736. 9 786. 5 868. 1 978. 1 1, 091. 0 U.S. G overnment se curities ShortNonbank term Savings marketthrift institubonds able setions curities Negotiable certificates of deposit Commercial paper 520.9 564. 6 582. 9 634. 2 721. 1 815. 4 884. 8 40.4 43. 4 46. 1 49. 1 52. 6 56. 9 61.7 130.0 140. 0 144, 5 153. 1 161. 7 175. 0 181. 5 156.4 174.5 177. 3 199. 2 233. 8 264 8 294. 4 194. 1 206. 7 215. 0 232. 8 273. 0 318. 8 347. 2 51. 0 51. 4 51. 1 51. 3 53. 7 57. 0 59. 9 39.5 46. 8 64. 9 53. 3 39. 6 39. 1 53. 8 19. 1 22. 4 9. 0 23. 0 29. 7 39. 3 57. 2 12. 8 18. 9 29. 1 24. 7 23. 9 27. 3 35.3 1973: June _ 1, 042. 5 July 1, 050. 8 Aug _ ._ _ 1, 060. 7 Sept _ ___ I, 067. 9 Oct 1, 073. 1 Nov__ 1, 080. 9 Dec 1, 091. 0 854. 859. 862. 865. 871. 878. 884. 7 0 0 4 5 3 8 59. 4 59. 5 59. 8 60. 2 60. 5 61. 0 61. 7 180. 2 180. 6 179.7 178.7 178.9 180. 6 181. 5 278. 4 280. 1 283. 2 285.8 289.5 292. 1 294. 4 336. 338. 339. 340. 342. 344. 347. 7 8 4 6 6 7 2 58. 8 59. 0 59. 2 59. 4 59. 5 59. 7 59. 9 45. 4 45. 9 48. 4 50. 1 50. 8 52. 2 53. 8 56.4 58. 4 60. 8 61. 1 58. 0 56. 3 57. 2 27. 3 28.5 30.2 32. 0 33. 4 34. 4 35. 3 1974: J a n _ _ _ Feb Mar__ Apr May v June July »___ 890. 898. 905. 910. 914. 919. 931. 0 5 0 7 5 7 2 61. 9 62. 7 63. 4 64. 0 64.5 64.8 65.0 180. 1 182. 1 183. 3 184. 2 185.1 185.8 194. 1 298. 2 301. 6 303.4 305. 5 306.8 309.7 311.6 349. 7 352. 1 354. 9 357. 1 358. 1 359. 4 360.5 59. 9 60. 2 60. 5 60. 8 61. 0 61. 2 61.5 52. 0 50. 2 51.4 52. 1 54. 1 56. 1 56. 6 59. 9 61. 1 62. 4 70. 1 75. 8 77.5 78.9 35. 9 37. 0 38. 8 39. 9 40.2 40.5 40. 8 _ _ 1, 097. 8 1, 107. 1 1, 118. 2 1, 133. 6 1, 145. 6 1, 155. 1 1, 169. 1 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 30 LOANS, INVESTMENTS, DEBITS, AND RESERVES Total loans and investments (seasonally adjusted) at al! commercial banks increased at an annual rate of 14.0 percent in July; up from a 9.9 percent annual rate in June. Net borrowed reserves increased by $258 million during the month. BilLiONS OF DOLLARS 700 ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 700 600 500 200 100 1968 1974 1969 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE I COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS All commercial banks (seaso nally adjust ed data) End of period Loans Investrnents Total loans Total, Comand Other mercial U.S. Gov- securiinvest- excludernment ments ing inter- and indus- securities ties bank trial Bank debits outside New York City (232 centers) , seasonally adjusted annual rates l Adl membe r banks ^ Total reserves Billions of dollars 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972_ 1973" 1973- July__ _ _ _ Aug__ SeptOct Nov Dec 1974: Jan* Feb » _ Mar v Apr * . May p *> June v July 390. 2 3 401. 7 435. 5 484.8 556. 4 630. 3 608. 8 617. 4 620. 2 624. 2 628. 4 630. 3 638. 0 645. 7 654. 9 663. 2 668.6 673. 9 681.3 258. 2 3 279. 1 291. 7 4 320. 3 377. 8 447. 3 427. 5 435. 9 439. 1 441. 1 445. 5 447. 3 452. 3 457. 1 466. 3 473. 7 478.0 481. 3 490. 4 95.9 3 105. 7 110. 0 115. 9 129. 7 155. 8 151. 2 153. 4 153. 7 153.6 155. 0 155. 8 157. 8 158. 9 164. 4 168.9 171. 9 173.9 176. 8 60. 7 3 51. 5 57. 9 60. 1 61. 9 52.8 59.8 57.9 56.4 55. 1 55.0 52. 8 54. 4 56. 2 56.2 56.7 56. 7 57. 1 55. 4 ^l Debits during period to demand deposit accounts except interbank and *"-S. Government. Averages of daily figures. Annual data are for December. Beginning June 1969, data include ail bank-premises subsidiaries and other dficant majority-owned domestic subsidiaries; earlier data include corncial banks only. As of June 1971, Farmers Home Administration notes totaling about $0.7 billion are classified as other securities rather than as loans. Borrowings at Excess Federal Free reserves Reserve reserves Banks Millions o f dollars 71. 3 3 71. 1 85. 9 4 104. 4 116. 7 130. 2 121. 5 123. 6 124. 7 128. 0 127. 9 130. 2 131. 3 132. 4 132. 4 182. 8 133. 9 135. 4 135. 5 4,360 5,150 5,717 6,443 7,530 9, 632 9,843 10, 144 9, 893 10, 257 10, 612 10, 544 10, 735 10,917 11, 253 11, 424 11, 589 11, 874 27, 221 28, 031 29, 265 31, 329 5 31, 353 35, 068 33, 590 33, 783 34, 020 34, 913 34, 725 35, 068 36, 655 35, 242 34, 966 35, 929 36, 519 36, 390 37, 349 455 257 272 165 5 219 262 391 243 245 223 182 262 236 189 176 158 194 131 182 765 1, 086 321 107 1,049 6 1,298 2,050 2, 144 1,861 1, 465 1, 399 1, 298 1,044 1, 186 1, 352 1, 714 2, 580 3,000 3, 309 -310 -829 -49 58 5 -830 -1,036 -1,659 -1,901 -1,616 - 1, 242 -1,217 -1,036 -808 -997 — 1, 176 -1, 556 -2, 386 -3, 127 5 Beginning November 9, 1972 adjusted to include certain reserve deficiencies on which penalties can be waived for a transition period in connection with adaptation to Regulation J. 8 Beginning April 1973, includes seasonal borrowings. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 31 CONSUMER AND REAL ESTATE CREDIT Consumer credit (seasonally unadjusted) increased $1.7 billion during June. A year earlier there was an increase of $2.8 billion. Seasonally adjusted consumer instalment credit rose $1.1 billion in June. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ] 200 180 20 18 SEASON ALLY ADJUSTED (ENLARGEC> SCALE) 16 ^^ 14 ~~~\^\pr— INS FALMENT. CREDIT EX TENDED -^ ^-sy^vX'^ *»** V. ^ »-_-•"— ^ ^"-"^ *£Z~ — ' INSTALMENT CREDIT REPAID C^==^=^^==>^3 12 10 ^~-i—-—rrrr^ /] ! 1 1 1 ! 1 ! I 1 ! I 1968 ! ! I ! I 1! I 1 1 I 1 8 ! I 1 1 ! I J ! LI I 1969 ! | 11! I I ! I ! 1 1970 ! ! 1 1 1 1 I I ! | ! ! ! 1 I ! 1 1 1 ! 1 ! [Millions of dollars] Consum er instalme nt credit e xtended Consu mer credit outs tan din g (end of p>eriod; and r epaid (seas on ally adjiisted) imadjusted, Instalment Total Automot>ile paper NonAutomol Total bile Total Personal instal- Extended Repaid Extended Repaid ment 2 paper loans 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 89, 883 96, 239 100, 783 110, 770 121, 146 127, 163 138, 394 157, 564 180, 486 70, 893 76, 245 79, 428 87, 745 97, 105 102, 064 111,295 127, 332 147, 437 28, 437 30, 010 29, 796 32, 948 35, 527 35, 184 38, 664 44, 129 51, 130 20, 237 21, 662 23, 235 25, 932 28, 652 30, 345 32, 865 36, 922 41, 425 18, 990 19, 994 21, 355 23, 025 24, 041 25, 099 27, 099 30, 232 33, 049 1973: Mav June July Aug Sept Oct. _ _ Nov Dec 1974: Jan Feb Mar___ _ Apr May June 164, 277 167, 083 169, 148 171, 978 173, 035 174, 840 176, 969 180, 486 178, 686 177, 522 177, 572 179, 495 181, 680 183, 425 133, 136, 138, 140, 142, 143, 145, 147, 146, 145, 145, 147, 148, 150, 47, 518 48, 549 49, 352 50, 232 50, 557 51, 092 51, 371 51, 130 50, 617 50, 386 50, 310 50, 606 51, 076 51, 641 38, 376 38, 928 39, 440 40, 064 40, 397 40, 651 41, 116 41, 425 41, 352 41, 417 41, 492 41, 851 42, 402 42, 945 30, 746 31, 065 30, 936 31, 168 30, 942 31, 230 31, 569 33, 049 32, 111 31, 595 31, 804 32, 448 32, 828 32, 810 1 531 018 212 810 093 610 400 437 575 927 768 047 852 615 Also includes other consumer goods paper, and home improvement loans, not shown separately. 2 Consists of single-payment loans, charge accounts, and service credit. 32 ^ COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period 1974 1973 1972 1971 ! 1 ! 1 ! I ! ! I 1 !N 6 3 661 832 171 984 146 158 281 951 083 70, 463 77, 480 83, 988 91, 667 99, 786 107, 199 115, 050 126, 914 144, 978 27, 208 27, 192 26, 320 31, 083 32, 553 29, 794 34, 873 40, 194 46, 453 23, 706 25, 619 26, 534 27, 931 29, 974 30, 137 31, 393 34, 729 39, 452 13, 932 13, 646 14, 542 14, 294 13, 691 14, 149 14, 275 12, 677 13, 714 13, 541 13, 823 14, 179 14, 669 14, 387 11, 941 12, 034 12, 544 12, 399 12, 332 12, 449 12, 549 12, 267 12, 797 12, 870 13, 206 13, 026 13, 407 13, 301 3,989 3,762 3,930 3, 968 3, 939 3, 912 3, 819 3, 315 3,492 3,389 3,484 3,545 3, 769 3,731 3,261 3,253 3, 334 3,293 3,406 3,427 3,471 3, 338 3,433 3, 394 3, 544 3,498 3,601 3, 577 78, 82, 87, 99, 109, 112, 124, 142, 165, End of period, unadjusted. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Mortgage debt outstanding, no n farm, 1- to 4houses 3 212, 223, 236, 251, 266, 280, 307, 345, 386, 937 645 060 241 823 175 200 500 489 366, 202 378, 382 386, 489 392, 053 "4027 064 JOND YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES From the end of July to late-August interest rates generally increased, with Treasury bills advancing most rapidly. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM !'/WEEKlY MONTHLY iV i f\ 1 \ 1 \ I \ I \ 10 I PRIME COMMERCIAL PAPER 1 i 10 / 1 I I i \ /v- CORPORATE Aaa BONDS (MOODY'S) 1968 1974 * SEE TABLE BELOW SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW [Percent per annum] High-grade U.S. Gov eminent secu rity yields municipal 3-month bonds 3-5 year Taxable 2 Treasury 3 (Standard4 & issues bonds bills i Poor's) 5. 339 4.51 5.59 5.25 6. 677 5. 81 6. 85 6. 10 6. 458 6. 51 7.37 6. 59 4. 348 5.70 5.74 5.77 4. 071 5.27 5.85 5.63 7. 041 6.92 5. 18 6. 30 Period 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1973: July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1974: Jan Feb Mar Apr__ May June Julv Aug Week ended: 1974: Julv 12 19 26 Aug 2 9 16 23 * 1 8 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS _ Aaa 6.18 7.03 8. 04 7. 39 7. 21 7. 44 Prime commercial paper, 4-6 Baa months 6.94 5. 90 7. 81 7. 83 9. 11 7. 72 8.56 5. 11 8. 16 4. 69 8.24 8. 15 8. 015 8. 672 8. 478 7. 155 7.866 7. 364 7. 755 7. 060 7. 986 8. 229 8.430 8. 145 7. 752 7. 49 7.75 7. 16 6. 81 6.96 6. 80 6.94 6. 77 7. 33 7. 99 8. 24 8. 14 8. 39 6. 53 6.81 6.42 6.26 6.31 6. 35 6.56 6. 54 6. 81 7. 04 7.07 7. 03 7. 18 5. 39 5. 47 5. 11 5.05 5. 17 5. 12 5.20 5. 19 5. 36 5. 67 5. 96 6. 08 6. 54 7. 45 7.68 7.63 7. 60 7.67 7. 68 7.83 7. 85 8. 01 8. 25 8.37 8.47 8. 72 8. 24 8.53 8.63 8.41 8.42 8.48 8. 58 8. 59 8. 65 8. 88 9.10 9. 34 9. 55 7.892 7. 702 7. 604 7. 698 8. 505 8. 763 8. 846 8. 60 8. 35 8. 08 8. 55 8. 59 8. 58 8. 68 7. 23 7. 24 7. 12 7. 24 7. 31 7. 35 7. 30 6. 80 6. 65 6. 26 6. 61 6.47 6. 45 6.59 8.66 8. 71 8. 77 8. 86 8. 93 8. 98 6 9. 03 9.49 9. 55 9. 61 9. 67 9. 70 9. 74 9. 78 2 6 Rate on new issues within period. Selected note and bond issues. April 1953 to date, bonds due or callable 10 years and after. 6 * Weekly data are Wednesday figures. Not charted. Data for first of the month, based on the maximum permissible interest rate d percent beginning July 8, 1974) and 30-year mortgages paid in 15years. 6 Corpora te bonds (Moc dy's) 9. 18 10. 21 10. 23 8. 92 8. 94 9. 08 8.66 7. 82 8.42 9. 79 10.62 10. 96 11. 72 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 FHA new home mortgage yields 5 7. 13 8. 19 9. 05 7.78 7. 53 8. 08 7. 89 8. 19 9. 18 8.97 8. 86 8. 78 8. 54 8. 66 9. 17 9. 46 9. 46 9. 85 11. 95 11. 95 11. 50 11. 23 11. 48 11. 63 11. 78 Sources: Department of Housing and Urban Development, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 33 COMMON STOCK PRICES, YIELD, AND EARNINGS Stock prices declined 1 2 percent from late July to late August. Index, 1941-43=10 Index, 1941-43=10 120 120 COMPOSITE PRICE INDEX FOR 500 COMMON STOCKS 110 iia 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 PERCENT PERCENT DIVIDEND YIELD ON COMMON STOCKS 4 3 M t i t I i T n, 2 RATIO RATIO 25 PRICE/EARNINGS RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS 20 20 15 15 1969 1968 1970 1972 1971 1973 SOURCE: STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION 10 1974 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS l Period Total 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1973: July Aug _ _ _ _ Sept Oct ___ _ ___ _ Nov_ __ _ _ Dec 1974: Jan Feb Mar_ Apr May___ _ June _ July Week ended : 1974: July 12 19 26 Aug 2 9_ 16_ 23 1 _ _ __ Total 98.70 97. 84 83. 22 98.29 109. 20 107. 43 105. 83 103. 80 105. 61 109. 84 102. 03 94.78 96. 11 93. 45 97. 44 92. 46 89.67 89. 79 82. 82 107. 49 107. 13 91. 29 108. 35 121. 79 120. 44 118. 65 116. 75 118. 52 123. 42 114. 64 106. 16 107. 18 104. 13 108. 98 103. 66 101. 17 101. 62 93. 54 81. 12 83. 52 83. 97 79. 62 80. 98 77. 39 * 73. 48 91. 65 94. 43 94. 77 89.68 91. 21 86. 99 82. 54 Price i ndex Industrials Capital Consumers' goods goods 1941-^t3=10 105. 77 86.33 103. 75 87. 06 80. 22 87. 87 102. 80 99. 78 119. 39 113. 91 118. 58 107. 13 105. 94 116. 31 115. 98 104. 35 116. 60 105. 16 122. 30 106. 58 115. 48 96.97 107. 44 86. 57 108. 06 87. 63 104. 31 86. 85 109. 22 92. 24 104. 19 87. 73 100. 69 87. 34 100. 10 90. 07 93. 64 80. 34 89. 87 95. 47 97. 60 90.45 95.27 88. 29 83. 70 79. 15 82. 14 81. 68 74. 80 77. 70 70. 29 67. 72 Public utilities Railroads Dividend yield « (percent) 66.42 62. 64 54. 48 59. 33 56. 90 53.47 53. 31 50. 14 52. 31 53. 22 48. 30 45. 73 48.60 48. 13 47. 90 44. 03 39. 35 37. 46 35. 37 48.84 45.95 32. 13 41. 94 44. 11 38.01 35. 22 33. 76 35.49 38. 24 39.74 41. 48 44.37 41.85 42. 80 40. 26 37.04 37. 31 35. 63 3.07 3. 24 3. 83 3. 14 2. 84 3. 06 3. 04 3. 16 3. 13 3.05 3. 36 3. 70 3. 64 3. 81 3. 65 3. 86 4. 00 4. 02 4. 42 34.65 35. 19 36. 12 35. 04 35. 62 34. 88 33. 36 34. 29 35. 65 36. 79 36. 05 36. 86 36. 05 34. 37 Price/ earnings ratio 3 4. 54 4. 35 4. 29 4. 61 4. 47 4. 82 4 5. 05 17.66 16.48 15. 69 18.50 18.20 14. 22 14. 10 11.95 11. 17 Includes 500 common stocks: 425 Industrials, 56 public utilities, and 20 rail- are averages of monthly data. Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 8 roads. Weekly indexes for capital and consumer goods are Wednesday figures; Ratio of price index for last day of quarter to earnings for 12 months endj all other weekly indexes are averages of dally figures; with that quarter. Annual ratios are averages of quarterly data. a Aggregate cash dividends (based on latest known annual rate) divided by * Not charted. the aggregate monthly market value of the stocks in toe group. Annual yields Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation. 34 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBT In fiscal year 1974 there was a deficit of $3.5 billion, compared to a deficit of $14.3 billion in fiscal 1973. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 300 300 260 260 220 180 140 100 -40 i 1964 1965 1966 1967 1969 1970 FISCAL YEARS 1968 1971 1972 SOURCES. TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET 1973 1974 1975 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Federal debt ( end of period) Period Receipts Fiscal year: 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972___ 1973 1974 2 v 1975 Total * Held by the public 106. 6 112. 7 _ 111. 3 118. 6 -4.8 5.9 310.8 316.8 254. 5 257. 6 116. 8 130.9 149. 6 153. 7 187.8 118.4 134. 7 158. 3 178. 8 184. 5 1.6 -3.8 -8. 7 -25. 2 3. 2 323. 2 329. 5 341. 3 369. 8 367.1 261.6 264. 7 267. 5 290.6 279.5 193.7 188.4 208. 6 232.2 264. 8 294,0 196.6 211. 4 231. 9 246.5 268. 3 305. 4 -2. 8 -23. 0 -23. 2 -14. 3 -3. 5 — 11. 4 382.6 409.5 437. 3 468.4 486. 3 509. 1 284.9 304. 3 323. 8 343.0 346. 1 359. 8 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ' Excludes non-interest-bearing public debt securities held by IMF. 2 Estimates as revised June 12,1974. Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 35 FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In fiscal 1974 budget receipts were $32.6 billion higher than in fiscal 1973 and budget outlays were $21.8 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 120 120 OUTLAYS 200 200 NONDEFENSE 160 160 120 120 80 80 NATIONAL DEFENSE 40 1 I 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 I 40 1969 1970 FISCAL YEARS 1971 1972 1973 SOURCES! TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET 1974 1975 N COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Recei ots (Outlays Nationa1 defense Period Fiscal year: 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967. _. 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972___ 1973 1974* 19751 1 Total 106. 6 112. 7 116. 8 130. 9 149. 6 153.7 187. 8 193. 7 188.4 208.6 232. 2 264. 8 294. 0 Estimates as revised June 12,1974. 36 Individual Corporation income income taxes taxes Other Total 21. 6 23. 5 25. 5 30. 1 34. 0 28. 7 36. 7 32. 8 26. 8 32. 2 36. 2 38. 7 44. 5 37. 4 40. 5 42. 6 45. 3 54. 1 56. 3 63. 9 70. 5 75.4 81. 7 92.8 107. 4 118.5 111. 3 118. 6 118. 4 134. 7 158. 3 178. 8 184. 5 196.6 211. 4 231. 9 246. 5 268. 3 305.4 47. 6 48. 7 48.8 55. 4 61. 5 68. 7 87. 2 90. 4 86.2 94. 7 103.2 118. 8 131.0 Total 52. 3 53. 6 49. 6 56. 8 70. 1 80. 5 81. 2 80. 3 77.7 78. 3 76.0 78. 8 87. 9 Interna- Health tional Depart- affairs and Inment of income terest Other and Defense, finance security military 48. 1 49. 6 46. 0 54. 2 67. 5 77. 4 77. 9 77. 2 74. 5 75. 2 73.3 77. 6 84. 5 4. 1 4. 1 4. 3 4. 5 4, 5 4. 6 3. 8 3. 6 3. 1 3.7 3. 1 4. 2 4. 4 25. 4 26. 9 •27. 4 31. 4 37. S 43. 7 49. 4 56. 6 70. 6 82. 0 91. 3 105. 6 128.4 9. 2 9. 8 10. 4 11. 3 12. 6 13. 7 15. 8 18. 3 19. 6 20.6 22. 8 28. 1 30. 0 20. 3 24. 2 26. 7 30. 7 3 3 li 36. 2 34. 4 37. 8 40. 5 47. 2 53. 2 51. 7 54.7 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. IDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS According to preliminary estimates for the second quarter, Federal receipts increased $12.2 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) and expenditures rose $10.6 billion, resulting in a balanced budget as shown in the national income accounts. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320 320 300 -20 SURPLUS A 1 1" ~ n n nn -20 40 DEFICIT ! ! ' ! I ! 1 I 1 I i i 1 ! I ® 1 ] ! | ! I 1973 1972 1971 1970 1969 1968 _ _ A. \ \ i ! 19/4 ! CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF CC.V.MERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Feeleral Go1*/ernmemb expend] tures Federal (jovernm ent receip ts Period Personal Corpo- Indirect rate business Total tax and profits tax and nontax tax nontax receipts accruals accruals GrantsSubsidies Less: less Contriin-aid Wage Purcurrent accruals chases Trans- to State Net butions for Total of goods fer pay- and interest surplus of less Governdispaid social inand ments local services government en- bursesurance ments terprises ments Surplus or deficit ( \ income and product accounts Fiscal vear: 197l"_ — 192. 5 1972 213. 2 1973 240. 4 19741 Calendar vear: 192. 0 1970 198. 5 1971 1972 227. 2 1973 258. 5 87. 5 100. 7 106. 8 123. 0 32. 3 34. 1 41. 2 20. 1 20.0 20. 7 21. 4 52. 6 58. 5 71. 7 82. 7 212. 4 232. 9 255. 4 276.5 95. 8 103. 2 105.3 109. 8 69. 7 78. 6 89. 4 103. 9 26. 8 32. 6 40. 2 41.7 14.3 13. 4 14. 5 17. 8 5. 7 5. 3 6. 7 3. 3 -0. 1 .0 .5 __, 2 -19. 8 -19. 7 -15.0 92. 2 89. 9 108. 2 114. 1 31. 0 33. 4 36. 6 43. 7 19. 3 20. 4 20. 0 21. 2 49. 5 54. 6 62. 5 79. 5 203. 220. 244. 264. 9 3 7 2 96. 2 97. 6 104. 9 106. 6 63. 2 74. 9 82. 8 95. 5 24. 4 29. 0 37. 4 40. 5 14. 6 13. 6 13. 5 16.3 5. 5 5.2 6. 6 5.3 .0 .0 5 .0 -11. 9 -21. 9 -17. 5 -5.6 1973: I — .249. II — 255. III- 261. IV— 268. 1 0 8 3 107. 9 110. 3 116. 7 121. 6 42. 8 44. 7 43. 8 43. 5 20. 9 21. 4 21. 0 21. 3 77. 4 78. 6 80. 2 81.8 260. 2 262. 4 263. 4 270. 6 106. 4 106.2 105. 3 108. 4 92. 0 94. 7 96. 5 98. 8 41. 2 40. 1 39.8 41. 0 14. 8 15. 9 16.8 17.6 6. 1 5. 4 5. 0 4.8 .1 i .' 0 .0 -11.2 -7. 4 -1. 7 -2.3 1974: ! _ _ _ _ 279. 4 II "- 291. i 124. 1 129. 4 47.2 52.2 21. 5 21. 9 86. 7 281. 0 88. 1 291.6 111. 5 114. 3 106. 5 113. 6 42. 9 43. 2 17.9 18. 7 2. 2 1.3 .0 -.6 -1.5 .0 "reliminary; based ®n seasonally adjusted quarterly data, except for contribu. which ha¥© beam adjusted for the January 1. 1974 increase in the tax base ASDHI. Source: Department of Commerce. 37 UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE POSTAGE AND FEES PA,D - - GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE u s D I V I S I O N OF P U B L I C DOCUMENTS WASHINGTON, D.C. 2O4O2 OFFICIAL BUSINESS First-Class TOTAL OUTPUT, Page The Nation's Income, Expenditure, and Saving Gross National Product or Expenditure National Income Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Measures of Unemployment and Part-Time Employment Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Weekly Hours of Work—Selected Industries Average Hourly and Weekly Earnings—Selected Industries ACTIVITY Industrial Production Production of Selected Manufactures Weekly Indicators of Production New Construction New Housing Starts and Applications for Financing Business Sales and Inventories—-Total and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and New Orders Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. Balances on Goods, Services, and Transfers U.S. Overall Balances on International Transactions 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 PRICES Consumer Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 26 27 28 MONEY, Money Stock Private Liquid Asset Holdings—Nonfinancial Investors Bank Loans, Investments, Debits, and Reserves Consumer and Real Estate Credit Bond Yields and Interest Rates Common Stock Prices, Yield, and Earnings 29 30 31 32 33 34 Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays and Debt Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 35 36 37 NOTE.—Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. 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