Full text of Economic Indicators : August 1952
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82d Congress, 2d Session Economic Indicators AUGUST 1952 Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1952 JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT (Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (&) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming, Chairman EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey, Vice Chairman JOHN J. SPARKMAN, Alabama PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois WILLIAM BENTON, Connecticut ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas RICHARD BOLLING, Missouri CLINTON D. McKINNON, California JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts J. CALEB BOGGS, Delaware GROVEE W. ENSLBY, Staff Director JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS (Created pursuant to Sec. 4 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) LEON H. KEYSERLING, Chairman JOHN D. CLARK ROY BLOUGH [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S. L Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled ' 'Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives &j the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Committee on the Economic Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Committee on the Economic Report; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts draivn by Graphics Unit, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce 11 Contents THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY P.agc The Nation's Economic Accounts Gross National Product 1 2 PRICES Consumers' Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers Stock Prices 3 4 5 6 EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES Civilian Labor Force Nonagricultural Employment—Selected Industries Average Weekly Hours—Selected Industries Average Hourly Earnings—Selected Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Selected Industries 7 8 9 10 11 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Weekly Production—Selected Indicators Production of Selected Manufactures Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment. New Construction New Housing Starts Inventories and Sales Merchandise Exports and Imports 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 PURCHASING POWER National Income Corporate Profits Personal Income Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving Per Capita Disposable Income Farm Income 21 22 23 24 25 26 CREDIT, MONEY, AND FEDERAL FINANCE Bank Loans and Investments Consumer Credit Bond Yields and Interest Rates Money Supply Federal Budget Receipts and Expenditures Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public * 27 28 29 30 31 32 THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY THE NATION'S ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS On the basis of the income and product accounts, the approximate balance between government expenditures and receipts in the first quarter changed to an excess of expenditures of $3 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES ANNUAL TOTALS CONSUMERS DISPOSABLE INCOME ^ EXPENDITURES 0 I I I I I I 1 t I I I I I BUSINESS INVESTMENT-*' EXCESS OF GROSS RETAINED EARNINGS GOVERNMENT - FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL EXPENDITURES FOR GOODS AND SERVICES ^EXCESS OF RECEIPTS I I i I I I I I I I I 2 1950 I/ 3 195! 1952 1953 INCLUDES NET FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN ADDITION TO GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT. J> INCLUDES UNDISTRIBUTED CORPORATE PROFITS AND CORPORATE INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT, AND CAPITAL CONSUMPTION ALLOWANCES. 3l/ PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS. NOTE: THE SUM OF THE THREE INCOME AND RECEIPT ITEMS SHOWN IN THIS CHART IS NOT EQUAL TO THE SUM OF THE EXPENDITURES, OR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT, SECAUSE Of STATISTICAL DISCREPANCIES. FOR EXPLANATION AND USE OF THIS ARRANGEMENT, SEE SENATE REPORT NO- 1295, JOINT ECONOMIC REPORT, PR 92-93, 99-105, AND THE MIDYEAR ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JULY 1952, APPENDIX A. SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED). COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT In the second quarter of 1952, gross national product was almost $4 billion higher (seasonally adjusted annual rate) than in the previous quarter. National security expenditures increased about $4 billion, while the rise of about $2 billion in personal consumption was approximately offset by a decrease in other government expenditures and in investment (domestic and foreign). BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 400 400 350 I 2M 3 1952 4 I 2 1953 -^PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED), COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Personal private Net foreign Total gross consump- Gross domestic national tion expendinvestment investment product itures Period 1939.. 1944 1946 1947 1948. 1949 _ 1950 . _ 1951 ... 91.3 213.7 211. 1 233.3 259. 0 258.2 284.2 329. 2 67.5 111.6 146. 9 165. 6 177. 9 180.6 194.3 208.0 9.9 7.7 28.7 30.2 42.7 33.5 50. 3 58.5 0.9 -2. 1 46 8.9 1.9 .5 -2.3 .2 Government purchases of goods and services Total 13. 1 96.5 30.9 28.6 36.6 43.6 41. 9 62. 6 National security 1 Other 2 1.2 87.5 18.5 12.0 15.5 18.9 18.3 36.7 11.9 9.0 12.4 16.6 21. 1 24. 7 23.6 25. 9 22. 1 27. 3 34. 5 41. 1 43. 8 46.0 49.9 23.8 24. 6 25. 3 26. 2 27. 4 28.4 28. 1 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1950: Fourth quarter 1951: First quarter _ Second quarter Third quarter. Fourth quarter 1952: First quarter 3 Second quarter 304.2 319.6 329.3 330. 9 337. 1 339. 4 343.2 199. 4 210.5 204.5 206. 4 210. 5 213.2 214.9 61.6 59.8 65. 2 56.2 52.9 50.0 49.3 -2.7 -2.7 -. 2 1. 1 2. 6 1. 9 .9 45. 9 51. 9 59.8 67. 3 71. 2 74. 4 78.0 J Includes expenditures for military services, international security and foreign relations (except foreign loans), atomic energy, merchant marine, promotion of defense production and economic stabilization, and civil defense; -excludes Federal Government sales. For further detail, see Midyear Economic Report of the President, July 1952 (p. 139), and Survey of Current Business, July 1952 (p. 12;. * Residual;expenditures by the Federal Government for other than "national security" and total expenditures by State and local governments. a Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. PRICES CONSUMERS' PRICES In June, consumers* prices reached a new all-time high—0.3 percent above May and 11.4 percent above June 1950. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE 250 PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE 250 175 125 J F M A M J . J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D I95E 1947 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1935-39=100] Period 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average, 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average June 15 1951 monthly average 1951: May 15 June 15_ -. July 15. August 15 September 15 October 15 November 15 December 15 1952: January 15 February 15 March 15 April 15 May 15 June 15 * _ _ _ All items 99.4 123.7 125. 7 128.6 139.5 171.9 170.2 171.9 170. 2 185. 6 185. 4 185. 2 185. 5 185. 5 186 6 187 4 188. 6 189. 1 189. 1 187. 9 188 0 188. 7 189. 0 189. 6 Food 95.2 138.0 136. 1 139. 1 159. 6 210. 2 201.9 204.5 203. 1 227.4 227. 4 226. 9 227. 7 227. 0 227. 3 229. 2 231. 4 232. 2 232.4 227. 5 227. 6 230. 0 230. 8 231. 5 Apparel 100. 5 129.7 138.8 145.9 160.2 198.0 190. 1 187.7 184. 6 204. 5 204. 0 204. 0 203. 3 203. 6 209. 0 208. 9 207. 6 206. 8 204. 6 204. 3 203. 5 202. 7 202. 3 202. 0 Rent 104.3 108.7 109. 1 109.5 110. 1 121. 2 126.4 131.0 130. 9 136.2 135. 4 135. 7 136. 2 136. 8 137. 5 138. 2 138. 9 139. 2 139. 7 140. 2 140. 5 140. 8 141. 3 141. 6 i Based on a special survey, the food index for July 15 is estimated at 235.1, or 1.5 percent above June 15. NOTE.—Revised index of prices for moderate-income families in large cities. Source: Department of Labor. Fuel, electricity, and refrigeration 99.0 107. 7 109.8 110.3 112.4 133.9 137.5 140.6 139. 1 144. 1 143. 6 143. 6 144. 0 144. 2 144. 4 144. 6 144. 8 144. 9 145. 0 145. 3 145. 3 145. 3 144. 6 144. 8 Housefurnishings 101.3 125.6 136.4 145. 8 159.2 195.8 189.0 190.2 184. 8 210.9 212. 6 212. 5 212.4 210. 8 211. 1 210. 4 210. 8 210. 2 209. 1 208. 6 207. 6 206. 2 205. 4 204. 4 Miscellaneous 100.7 115.8 121. 3 124. 1 128. 8 149.9 154.6 156.5 154. 6 165.4 165. 0 164.8 165. 0 165.4 166. 0 166. 6 168. 4 169. 1 169. 6 170. 2 170. 7 171. 1 171. 4 172. 5 WHOLESALE PRICES Average wholesale prices in June were a little lower than in May as a result of slight declines in farm and industrial prices. Week-to-week changes during July, however, were upward/ all three major wholesale price sectors showed increases. PERCENT OF 1947-49 AVERAGE. PERCENT OF 1947-49 AVERAGE 120 I2O 1952 1947 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1947-49=100] All commodities Period 1 942 monthly average 1 946 monthly average 1 947 monthly average 1 948 monthly average 1 949 monthly average 1 950 monthly average 1951 monthly average 1951- May - - - July - . August September October November - - - DGQgTJiber 1952* January February March April • way Mav J une Week ended: 1952- July 1 g 15 22 29 August 5 -« - - - • -- Farm products 64.2 78.7 96.4 104.4 99.2 103. 1 100.2 114.8 115.9 115. 1 114.2 113.7 113.4 113.7 113.6 113. 5 113.0 112.5 112.3 111.8 111.6 111.3 59.2 83.2 100. 0 107.3 92.8 97. 5 94.5 113.4 115.7 113. 9 111. 1 110.4 109. 9 111. 5 112.0 111.3 110.0 107.8 108.2 108. 7 107.9 107.3 110. 7 110. 7 111. 1 111.2 111.7 111.8 107.7 107.6 109. 4 109.6 109.7 109.6 i Not available. NoTE.—Revised index. For description of the revision see The Monthly Labor Review, February 1952. Scarce: Department of Labor. 98. 2 106. 1 95.7 99.8 96.8 111. 4 112.3 111. 3 110.7 111.2 110.9 111. 6 111.0 110. 7 110. 1 109.5 109.2 108.0 108.6 108.7 Other than farm products and foods (industrial) 68. 3 78. 3 95. 3 103.4 101. 3 105.0 102.2 115. 9 116.8 116. 2 115.7 114.9 114. 8 114.6 114.5 114. 6 114.3 114.2 113.8 113. 3 113.0 112. 6 108.0 108. 1 109.2 109.2 109.7 109.7 111. 9 111. 9 111. 9 112.0 112.5 112.7 Processed foods (i) (i) PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS From mid-June to mid-July, prices received by farmers increased 1 percent while prices paid by farmers did not Thus the parity ratio rose to 103, its highest level since January. PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE . 35Q 350 PARITY {PRICES PAID, INTEREST TAXES, AND WAGE RATES) 200 I 1 1 ! 1 ! I 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 J F M A M J J A S O N O J F M A M J 1947 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 J A S O N D J F I 1948 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 A M J J A S O N D J F 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J f950 1949 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 1951 1958 -^RATiO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO PARITY INDEX SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1910-14=100] Prices received by farmers Period 1939 1942 1944 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average June 15 1951 monthly average 1951: June 15. _ July 15 August 15 September 15October 15 November 15 December 15 1952" January 15 February 15 March 15 April 15 May 15 June 15_ Julv 15 1 _ _ _ _ _ . . _ _ . . - _ „_.__. - _. .. - ^.__ .„ . - .- _- - - _ . ~ - - - - 1 . ... .. Parity index (prices paidf interest, taxes, Parity ratio 3 and wage rates) 95 . 3 158 196 2 234 275 285 249 256 247 302 301 294 292 291 296 301 305 122 151 182 207 239 259 250 255 254 281 282 282 282 282 283 284 284 78 105 108 113 115 110 100 100 97 107 107 104 104 103 105 106 107 300 289 288 290 293 292 295 287 288 288 289 289 286 286 105 100 100 100 101 102 103 Ratio of index of prices received by farmers to parity index.. 'Includes wartime subsidy payments paid on beef cattle, sheep, lambs, milk, and butterfat between October 1943 and June 1946. Source: Department of Agriculture. 23228-—52 2 STOCK PRICES The trend of stock prices was upward during July, and the monthly average was the highest in recent years. groups, except utilities and mining, prices were higher than in June. PERCENT OF 1939 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1939 AVERAGE 1940 41 42 43 44 In al 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 1952 I960 SOURCE: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION. Period Weekly average: 1940 1942 .. 1946 .- .. 1949 1950 June 19511951: July August. September October November December 1952: January : February _ March April May__ June July Week ended: 1952: July 5 _ _ 12 19 25 2 August 1 _ _ COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS Composite index * [1939=100] Manufacturing Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Transportation Utilities 90. 6 74.9 149. 6 127 6 154. 1 158.3 184.7 181.8 189. 1 194.0 191.4* 185. 0 190.2 195.3 193. 1 192. 5 191. 1 190.4 196.0 198. 7 93. 4 75. 5 146. 6 132. 1 165. 7 171. 1 206.6 204.4 214. 0 219. 9 215. 8 207.5 214.5 221. 5 218. 1 216. 3 214. 5 213.7 221. 6 225. 3 92. 5 73.7 138.8 116. 0 150. 4 156.0 178.3 170. 3 177. 7 184.5 185. 1 178.4 182. 1 185.2 182. 6 181. 5 181. 3 181.7 187. 1 191. 7 94. 2 77. 1 154.4 147.2 180.2 185.0 233.0 236.3 248. 0 252.8 244. 3 234. 6 244.6 255. 1 251. 1 248. 4 245. 0 243.3 253.4 256.3 99. 1 90.8 202. 6 138. 8 159. 9 149.5 199. 2 187.9 195. 1 202. 3 203.3 194.0 203. 6 210.6 208. 6 214. 0 217. 1 215. 9 224. 6 226. 3 97.7 69. 8 121. 0 98. 1 107 2 114.8 112. 5 111.2 113. 9 114. 9 114.3 113.8 115.0 116.4 116. 8 116. 7 116. 6 116. 7 116. 8 116.8 199. 3 198. 4 197.5 199. 7 200. 7 226.0 224. 7 223. 8 226. 6 228.2 191. 8 191. 3 190. 7 192.9 195. 6 257. 6 255. 6 254. 3 257. 8 258.4 228. 226. 224. 226. 229. 116.8 116. 8 116. 7 117. 1 119.2 4 2 0 6 9 Trade, finance, and service 86.7 71.3 204. 3 160.5 183.8 182. 4 2oao 202.2 205.5 213. 1 214. 0 207. 8 209. 0 209. 1 206. 0 202. 9 202.5 Mining 75. 9 59. 7 125. 5 129. 2 143. 5 143. 0 204. 9 195. 2 217. 4 229.4 243. 6 238.8 238. 1 245.8 258. 0 294. 9 298.4 283. 2 201.3 203. 8 208. 3 290.5 207. 9 208. 4 295. 5 207.9 208.9 210.0 288. 8 290.2 281.3 288.4 285. 9 1 Includes 265 common stocks, distributed a? follows: 14 for mining, 98 for durable goods manufacturing, 72 for nondurable goods manufacturing, 21 for transportation, 28 for utilities, and 32 for trade, finance, and service. 2 Begining with July 25, indexes are computed on the basis of Friday prices since the markets are closed on Saturday. Source: Securities and Exchange Commission. EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE Total employment declined almost 340,000 in July to 62.2 million. An increase of over 225,000 in nonagricultural employment was not offset—due partially to the steel strike—by a seasonal decrease of about 575,000 workers in agriculture. A rise of about 125,000 in unemployment brought the total to 1.9 million, or 3 percent of the total civilian labor force. MILLIONS MSLLlOr4S OF PERSONS OF PERSONS* PERCENT PERCENT £0 20 UN Ef IPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FOflGE pwssi 1939 1944 mm mm 1947 •rt* m I960 •vA:|s^^^::y;: J 195! F M A v:vT-v/.-:4 ;:-:-.iv :::|:-:. i MR ft llitepp ; , , , . : : M J J A 1950 S 0 N 0 1951 1952 * 14 YEARS OF ASE AND OVER. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE-' DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period 1 939 monthly average _ _ 1 944 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1 949 monthly average- 1 950 monthly average- - June 1951 monthly average 1951: A . 7 W J - . Mav ***»J June __ July An a:\ist September October November December 1952* January Februarv.. _ March April May _ __ June -_ _ _ Julv _ _ - -- - - - Civilian labor force UnemEmployment l Total ployNonagriAgriculTotal ment tural cultural Thousands of persons, 14 years of age and over 9,480 55, 230 45, 750 9,610 36, 140 54, 630 670 53, 960 8, 950 45, 010 2, 142 60, 168 8, 266 49, 761 58, 027 2,064 61,442 59, 378 7,973 51, 405 62, 105 58, 710 8, 026 50, 684 3, 395 63, 099 7, 507 3, 142 59, 957 52, 450 3,384 64. 866 9,046 52, 436 61, 482 62, 884 1,879 7,054 61, 005 53, 951 62, 803 1,609 61, 193 7,440 53, 753 1,980 63, 783 61,803 8,035 53, 768 64. 382 1,856 62, 526 7,908 54, 618 62, 630 64, 208 54, 942 7,688 1, 578 1,606 61, 580 7, 526 54, 054 63, 186 61,836 63, 452 1,616 7,668 54, 168 7,022 54, 314 1,828 63, 164 61, 336 1,674 61,014 54, 636 62, 688 6,378 2, 054 61,780 59, 726 6, 186 53, 540 59, 752 6,064 2,086 61, 838 53, 688 1,804 6,012 59, 714 53, 702 61, 518 1,612 6,412 60, 132 61, 744 53, 720 61, 176 6,960 54,216 1, 602 62, 778 64, 390 62, 572 8, 170 54, 402 1,818 1, 942 64, 176 62, 234 54, 636 7, 598 Unemployment as percent of total civilian labor force 17.2 1.2 3.6 3.4 5. 5 5.0 5.2 3.0 2.6 3. 1 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.9 2.7 3. 3 3.4 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.0 1 Includes part-time workers and those who had jobs but were not at work for such reasons as vacation, illness, bad weather, temporary lay-off, and industrial disputes. Source: Department of Commerce. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT - SELECTED INDUSTRIES The usual June rise in manufacturing employment did not occur, primarily because of the steel strike. MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS "9.5 NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING DURABLE MANUFACTURING • 1951 N950 N950 6.0 o n i J i F i M » A i M i J i J » A i S i i 0 N ~ 0 " D I J CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION -| F I M I A | M i I J J J J I A i S I 0 t N O TRADE -1950 i J i F i M i A i M I J J A I I I —1 i I i i i S SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. i A i S i 0 . i N D COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers *] Manufacturing Period Total 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average June 1951 monthly average 1951: May June - July August September October November December 1952* Januarv February March April 22 May June 2 _ _ __ 10, 078 17,381 14, 461 15, 286 14, 146 14,884 14, 666 15, 931 15, 853 15, 956 15, 813 16, 008 16, 039 15, 965 15, 890 15, 913 15, 776 15, 859 15, 869 15, 784 15, 671 15, 440 Contract construcDurable Nondution goods rable goods 4,683 11,077 7,739 8,315 7, 465 8,008 7,964 8,926 8,975 8,998 8, 839 8,878 8,913 8,942 8,976 9,000 8,946 9,010 9, 035 9,045 9,006 8,682 5,394 6,304 6,722 6,970 6,681 6,876 6,702 7, 005 6,878 6,958 6, 974 7, 130 7, 126 7,023 6,914 6,913 6,830 6,849 6,834 6,739 6,665 6,758 1, 150 1,567 1,661 2, 165 2, 156 2,318 2,414 2,569 2,598 2,686 2,754 2,809 2,768 2,761 2,633 2,518 2,316 2,308 2,296 2,410 2,517 2,661 Trade 6,612 7, 189 8,602 9,491 9,438 9,524 9,411 9,804 9,683 9,732 9,667 9,641 9,781 9,893 10, 109 10, 660 9, 720 9,643 9, 668 9,817 9,744 9.787 Finance and service Government (Federal, State, local) 4,703 5,320 6,207 6,515 6,545 6,573 6,653 6, 641 6,663 6,728 6, 760 6,753 6,729 6,668 6,641 6,614 6,580 6, 586 6,618 6,701 6,754 6.817 3,987 6,049 5,607 5,613 5,811 5,910 5,832 6,390 6,377 6,377 6, 356 6,401 6,544 6,532 6,497 6,881 6,509 6,490 6,528 6,551 6,602 6. 585 Transportation and Mining public utilities 2,912 3,619 4, 023 4, 151 3,979 4,010 4, 023 4, 144 4,137 4, 161 4, 176 4,190 4,178 4, 166 4,165 4, 161 4, 103 4, 111 4, 118 4,098 4, 138 4. 170 845 917 852 981 932 904 946 920 915 927 906 922 917 917 917 916 909 902 904 897 894 8A9 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagrieultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of ^ndnagrieultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 7) which include proprietors, selfemployed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed' when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. 2 Preliminary estimates. Source: Department of Labor 8 AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES Average weekly hours in manufacturing increased slightly in June. most significant gains. HOURS PER WEEK HOURS PER WEEK DURABLE MANUFACTURING I The textile and leather industries showed the NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING I I I I III III I I I I II I II I I I I II > I iii i iI i i iii i'iiiI I 1952 RETAIL TRADE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION 1952 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR'. [Hours per week, selected industries * Manufacturing Period 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average - 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average _1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average June 1951 monthly average „_ 1951: May. _ June July August SeptemberOctober _ _ _ November December 1952: January February March __ _ April 44 Mav June 4 1 3 Total 37.7 44,9 40.4 40.4 40. 1 39.2 40.5 40.5 40.7 40.7 40.7 40. 2 40.3 40. 6 40. 5 40.5 41.2 40.8 40.7 40. 7 39.8 40.2 40.4 " •—. _ - For production and related workers. Not strictly comparable with previous data. Durable goods 2 Not available. ^Preliminary estimates. 38.0 46.6 40.2 40. 6 40.5 39.5 41.2 41.3 41.7 41.8 41.8 40. 9 41.3 41,6 41.7 41.5 42.2 41. 8 41.7 41.7 40.8 41. 1 41. 1 Building Nondurable construction Retail trade goods 37.4 42.5 40.5 40. 1 39.6 38.8 39. 7 39.5 39.5 39. 3 39.4 39.3 39. 1 39. 4 38.9 39.2 39.9 39. 5 39. 5 39. 3 38. 4 38. 9 39.4 32. 6 38.4 38. 1 37.6 337.3 36.7 36.3 37.0 37.3 37.5 37.7 38. 1 38.2 38. 2 38.5 36.4 37.7 37.5 37.9 36.9 37. 7 38. 2 2 () (22) (2) () (2) 40.3 40.3 40.4 40.5 40. 9 40.1 39. 8 40.4 40.8 40.8 40.0 39.8 39.4 40. 1 39.8 39.8 39. 8 39. 8 39. 7 Source: Department of Labor. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES Average hourly earnings increased in most industries during June. However, the withdrawal from the payrolls ot me relatively high-paid steelworkers caused the average for manufacturing industries to remain unchanged. DOLL ARS PER HOUR DOLLARS PER HOUR 1.90 1. f U NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING DURABLE MANUFACTURING I 60 1.80 1951 PRICES •V —^ 1.70 ^ ^S^X"***"*5* 1951 PRICES*^ ^ 1.60 X""*** 4 ^** ^-— -^" / ^*S^ CURRENT 1.50 ——\s * PRICES ^^cuRRENT PRICES 1 30 *mmS^ 1.20 1.40 0 rr, , , , i 1 1 1 1 1 i 1949 . . . . . 1 . . . ,T1 , LLI i_LL_L , u , 1 1 1 1 1951 1950 0 1952 T. . . , ! ? . . . . t t t l t l 1 , , , iT . , , , . 1 1950 1949 2.40 1951 1952 1.40 BUILDING CONSTRUCTION RETAIL TRADE 2.30 1.30 pz& 1951 PRICES *v^ ^. *—^"^X. - 1951 PRICES *V ^ 2.20 / 2.10 /•»»-». _^*"»^ /^ r A ' , gf^ S**~* _ s-^S 2.00 1.20 ^ ~-<;URRE f^ "^ ^T PRICES URRENT PRICES ^ 1.90 0 r<T^ rr.,,,1 1949 , • 1950 [951 J_LJ 1 , J , 1 1 5 0 f, . . . 1 .r... 1952 1949 , i,.1 1,i.1 1 1950 ..... 1 ..... 1951 , , , , ," i , , . ,r 1952 b DARNINGS IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY CONSUMERS* PRICE INDEX ON BASE I95IMOO. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE : DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. [Production and related workers in selected industries] All manufacturing Period 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average _ 1948 monthly average . . . 1949 monthly average 1 950 monthly average _ _ June __ 1951 monthly average 1951: May. j June . July August September October November.. December, 1952: January February March April44 May _. _ June 4 Durable goods manufacturing Nondurable goods manufacturing Current 1951 prices prices l 1951 Current prices prices l Current prices 1951 prices * $0. 633 .961 1.086 1.237 1.350 1. 401 1.465 1.453 1.594 1. 586 1. 599 1.598 1.596 1. 613 1.615 L 626 1. 636 1.640 1. 644 1. 656 1. 654 1. 657 1. 658 $1. 181 $0. 698 1. 443 1. 059 1. 444 1. 156 1. 292 1.438 1. 458 1. 410 1. 469 1. 528 1. 582 1. 537 1.522 L585 1.594 1.678 1. 588 1. 665 1.602 1.681 1. 600 1. 682 1. 598 1. 684 1.605 1. 707 1. 599 1.705 1. 600 * 1. 712 L 605 1. 723 1. 609 1. 726 1. 625 1. 731 1.635 1. 746 1, 626 1. 741 1. 628 1.745 1. 622 1.746 $1. 302 $0. 582 $1. 086 .803 1. 590 1. 206 1.537 1. 015 1.350 L 362 1. 502 1. 171 1. 380 1. 523 1.278 1. 602 L445 1. 325 1. 660 1.488 1.378 1.660 1. 489 1. 365 1.678 , 1. 481 I. 481 1. 475 1. 474 ]. 667 1.684 1. 484 1.487 1. 489 1. 684 1. 488 1. 482 1. 686 1. 481 1. 699 1. 482 1. 489 1. 491 1.476 1. 688 1. 685 1. 483 1.507 1. 487 1.515 1. 691 1. 694 1. 520 1.492 1. 522 1. 504 L 710 1. 724 1. 530 1.510 1. 712 1. 504 1. 530 1.504 1. 714 1. 531 1. 507 1. 540 1. 708 * Earnings in current prices divided by consumers' price index on base 1951 = 100. 2 Not available. 3 Not strietlyfcomparable with previous data. * Preliminary£estimates. 10 Building construction Current prices Retail trade 1951 prices l Current prices $0. 932 $1. 739 1. 252 1.880 1. 965 1.478 1. 681 3 1. 955 3 1. 848 ' 1.996 2. 110 1. 935 2.031 2. 193 1. 995 2. 176 2.201 2.201 2. 182 2. 184 2. 194 2. 198 2. 197 2. 195 2.209 2.207 2.236 2. 225 2. 239 2.217 2.224 2. 260 2. 253 2.211 2.234 2. 276 2. 285 2.258 2. 292 2.263 2. 239 2. 277 2. 267 2.227 (2) (2) (22) () - (2) $1. 009 1.088 1. 137 1. 176 1. 175 T. 253 1.252 1.256 1. 262 1. 259 1.270 1.267 1.267 1.245 1. 287 1.281 1. 279 1.285 1, 309 (2) 1951 prices! (2) (22) () $1. 173 1. 175 1.240 1.270 1.281 1. 253 1.253 1.259 1.263 1. 260 1.264 1.254 1.247 1.222 1.263 1.266 1. 263 1. 264 1.286 (2) Source: Department of Labor. AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES Average weekly earnings in manufacturing increased 37 cents in June to $66.98 because of the increase in the workweek. DOLLARS PER -WEEK DOLLARS PER WEEK 60 70 DURABLE MANUFACTURING NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING r -yP—-<^pw 1951 PRICES 1951 P R I C E S *£ ^Ls L "—\ ^^^ / -\/^^ o c~i i_.j j i l i i 1 1 1 T 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 i T i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 n 1949 on n 1111111 i M I *^^^****^ ^ ^ ^^t CURRENT PRICES ' l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 |: " 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i ^ 1949 i960 i 1951 ' M i ii 1 1 1 1 1 n 1 1952 RETAIL TRADE 1951 PRICES •"CURRENT PRICES 35 1111111111n o n 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 11 1952 I 1 1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 M n II 1949 ' EARNINGS IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX ON BASE 1951 • 100 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. [Production and related workers in selected industries] All manufacturing Period 1939 1943 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 monthly average-. monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average June -_ _ 1951 monthly average _ 1951: May June -- . - July August September October No vember December _ _• 1952: January -_ February March April 44 May _.« _ June 4 1 Durable goods manufacturing Building construction Retail trade Current prices 1951 Current prices * prices 1951 prices l Current prices 1951 prices 1 Current prices 1951 prices 1 Current prices $23. 86 43. 14 43.82 49.97 54. 14 54. 92 59.33 58. 85 64.88 64.55 65. 08 64. 24 64.32 65.49 65.41 65. 85 67.40 66.91 66. 91 67. 40 65. 83 66. 61 66.98 $44. 51 64.77 58.27 58. 10 58. 47 59.89 64.07 64. 18 64. 88 64. 61 65. 21 64. 30 64. 38 65. 16 64. 76 64. 81 66. 14 65.66 66. 12 66. 54 64.73 65.43 65.54 $26. 50 49. 30 46. 49 52.46 57. 11 58. 03 63. 32 62. 86 69.97 69.60 70.27 68.79 69. 55 71.01 71. 10 71.05 72.71 72. 15 72. 18 72. 81 71. 03 71. 72 71. 76 $49. 44 74.02 61. 82 61.00 61. 67 63. 28 68. 38 68. 55 69.97 69. 67 70.41 68. 86 69. 62 70. 66 70. 40 69.93 71.35 70.80 71. 32 71. 88 69.84 70. 45 70. 22 $21. 78 34. 12 41. 14 46. 96 50. 61 51. 41 54.71 53. 92 58. 50 57. 93 58. 47 58.48 57.91 58. 67 58.00 59.07 60. 45 60.04 60. 12 60. 13 58. 75 -59. 56 60.68 $40. 63 51. 23 54. 71 54. 60 54. 65 56.06 59.08 58. 80 58. 50 57.99 58. 59 58. 54 57. 97 58. 38 57. 43 58. 14 59. 32 58.92 59.41 59. 36 57.77 58. 51 59. 37 $30. 39 48. 13 56.24 63. 30 8 68. 85 70.95 73.73 73.82 82. 10 81.83 82.71 83.63 84. 31 85.42 86.20 82. 26 84.94 85. 35 86. 60 84.57 85. 84 86. 60 (2) $56. 70 72. 27 74.79 73. 60 3 74. 35 77.37 79.62 80.50 82. 10 81. 91 82.88 83. 71 84.39 85.00 85.35 80.96 83. 36 83.76 85. 57 83.48 84.41 85.07 (2) (22) () (2) $40. 66 43.85 45.93 47. 63 48. 06 50. 25 49.83 50.74 51.49 51. 37 50.80 50.43 49. 92 49.92 51.22 50. 98 50. 90 51. 14 51.97 Earnings in current prices divided by consumers' price index on base 1951=100. * Not available. Source: Department of Labor Nondurable goods manufacturing •(2) 1951 prices 1 (22) () (2) $47. 28 47.35 50.09 51.44 52.41 50.25 49.88 50.84 51.54 51. 42 50. 55 49.93 49. 13 48.99 50. 26 50.38 50.25 50.29 51.05 (2) 3 Not strictly comparable wltb previous dat§, * Preliminary estimates. . 11 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION In July, the index of total industrial production declined about 10 points to 192 percent of the 1935-39 average, according to preliminary estimates. The decrease reflected curtailments in steel-consuming industries and reduced operations because of vacation schedules in some other industries. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAOE 400 400 300 1952 i960 * P R E L I M I N A R Y ESTIMATES. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. [1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted] Period 1943 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 monthly average monthly average. monthly average monthly average monthly average. monthly average.. .. June 1951 monthly average 1951: June July. ... August September October November. _ December 1952: January February H. March April May _ _ • Junel1 July i Preliminary estimates. 12 Total industrial production 239 170 187 192 176 200 199 220 221 212 217 218 218 219 218 221 222 221 216 -211 203 192 Manufactures Total 258 177 194 198 183 209 208 229 231 222 226 228 226 228 228 231 232 231 225 224 213 201 Durable goods 360 192 220 225 202 237 237 273 274 265 267 271 274 277 282 282 284 284 277 277 248 227 Nonduraable goods 176 165 172 177 168 187 184 194 197 187 193 192 188 188 185 189 190 188 183 181 185 180 Minerals 132 134 149 155 135 148 151 164 165 156 165 167 174 170 163 167 167 164 166 141 146 142 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORS The low level of activity in the steel mills was reflected in reduced output of bituminous coal and motor vehicles during July. Generation of electric power continued at a level well above that of last year. MILLIONS OF TONS MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS (DAILY AVERAGE) 3 CARS £ND TRUCKS f\ fi : I ?** V V* f\ / \ m ...„•. .f i i F i M i AM \| i i J i J i i A S i ON 0 0 SOURCE: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR. EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, AND WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS. Ste el i Period Weekly average: 1950 June_ _ 1951_ __ _ 1951: June. July AugustSeptember. October _ _ November December 1952: January. _ February March April May June 3 Julv Week ended: 1952: July 5 12 _ 19_ 26 August 2. _ 9 /\ \s V J ? Thousands of net tons Percent of theoretical capacity Electric power, by utilities (millions of kilowatt-hours) Bituminous _ _ _i coal (thousands of short tons) 2 96. 9 99. 6 100. 9 100. 9 98. 2 98. 6 101. 2 102/9 102. 5 100. 6 99. 3 100. 7 102. 2 89. 7 89. 1 18. 4 20.2 6 183 6, 038 6, 958 6, 804 6 760 7, 114 7, 012 7, 204 7, 340 7, 464 7, 509 7 443 7 382 7 158 7, 018 7, 176 7,076 1 687 1, 707 1, 777 1, 707 1, 688 1, 748 1, 790 1, 918 1, 990 1, 765 1, 919 1 751 1 580 1, 553 1, 383 1, 320 1, 150 276 295 316 317 891 13. 3 14. 2 15. 2 15. 3 42. 9 83.6 6 478 6, 988 7, 180 7, 328 7,404 1 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 737 D COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 1, 857 1, 898 2, 016 2, 018 1, 964 1, 971 2, 022 2,058 2, 050 2, 010 2, 062 2, 091 2, 123 1, 863 1, 851 382 419 N 120 018 104 117 392 Cars and trucks (number) 154 214 192, 825 129, 828 147, 582 112, 786 120, 311 115, 721 112, 300 103, 362 90, 476 82, 195 104, 161 115, 014 119, 700 114, 870 118, 361 44, 764 79, 61, 26, 36, 19, 986 671 784 332 045 1 Weekly data are scheduled rates of operation; monthly figures are for actual output except latest month which is an average of the weekly estimates. Percent of capacity based on weekly net ton capacity of 1,843,516 for 1949, 1,906,2682 for the first half of 1950, 1,928,721 beginning July 1,1950,1,999,034 beginning January 3 1, 1951, and 2,077,040 beginning January 1,1952. Daily average for week. Preliminary estimates. Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, and Ward's Automotive Reports. 23228—52 3 13 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED MANUFACTURES Output of machinery held steady in June but was slightly below the level of the first quarter of this year. the nondurable manufactures, higher output of textiles and petroleum and coal products was noteworthy. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE (ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION) PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE (ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION) 1940.42 44 46 48 50 I960 Among 1951 1951 SOURCE' BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. 1952 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted] Durable manufactures Period 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average . _ 1948 monthly average...... 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average June - . 1951 monthly average 1951: May June July August .. .. September October November December . 1952: January February March. April _ _ May June * i Preliminary estimates. 14 Iron and steel 208 150 195 208 188 229 231 259 263 261 253 254 258 261 261 263 261 261 263 245 245 142 Lumber and products 129 131 143 145 130 160 155* 157 163 153 141 146 146 149 157 154 159 162 158 152 141 145 Nondurable manufactures Nonferrous Textiles Petroleum Manufac- Chemical Machinery metals and and and coal tured food products products products products products 443 240 276 277 234 270 262 336 336 338 328 328 336 340 347 358 359 360 359 352 352 351 267 157 187 193 160 206 207 207 206 205 199 197 196 201 209 207 216 217 218 219 220 210 153 162 163 170 147 182 173 174 190 185 160 170 163 154 157 152 157 160 152 144 151 158 185 173 193 218 209 229 222 268 263 263 262 265 266 269 276 281 281 281 278 266 213 257 145 149 157 159 163 164 164 165 167 165 164 166 167 163 160 160 162 165 166 163 160 162 384 236 251 254 241 264 261 298 298 302 305 306 301 298 299 298 300 297 294 293 293 297 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT The small decline in total investment from the first to the second quarter was due to a drop in the rate of business inventory accumulation, as other components remained stable. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 70 70 ANNUAL TOTALS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES GROSS PRIVATE * DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 50 NEW CONSTRUCTION CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES I I94O I I 42 I I I 44 1 46 I 48 I i 50 I ! 1951 1950 1952 1953 •^PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED). COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Total gross private domestic investment Period 1939 1944_ 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 _ 9.9 7. 7 28. 7 30.2 42. 7 33.5 50.3 58.5 New construction Residential nonfarm Total 4. 9 2.8 10.3 13.9 17. 7 17. 2 22. 9 23.3 2. 7 .8 4.0 6. 3 8. 6 8. 3 12. 6 11.0 Other Producers' durable equipment Change in business inventories 4. 6 5. 7 12. 3 17. 1 19. 9 18. 7 22.0 24. 9 0. _. 6. —. 5. -2. 5. 10. 2. 1 2. 0 6. 3 7. 6 9. 1 9.0 10. 3 12.3 ' j I ( i i I Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1950* Fourth quarter 61.6 24. 2 13. 1 11. 2 23. 8 13.6 1951* First quarter Second quarter- _ __ Third quarter _ _ Fourth quarter 59.8 65. 2 56.2 52. 9 24. 7 23. 5 22.4 22.4 12. 8 10. 9 9.9 10. 3 11. 9 12. 6 12. 5 12. 1 24. 8 25. 4 24. 9 24. 7 10. 3 16.3 8. 9 5.8 50.0 49.3 23. 7 23.6 11.0 11.0 12. 7 12. 6 25. 7 25. 7 .6 .1 1952: First quarter Second quarter * __ * Preliminary estimates. Revised figures became available after chart was prepared. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. 15 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Expenditures for new plant and equipment during the first half of 1952 are estimated to have been about 11 percent above the first half of 1951. Expenditures for the third quarter, while slightly below the second quarter, are expected to exceed the level of the third quarter of last year by about 6 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 30 30 TRANSPORTATION AND > ELECTRIC AND GAS UTILITIES 1939 1948 I95O 1951 1 2 3 1.950 JU SEE NOTC 4 ON TABLE BELOW. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. [Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal variation] Manufacturing Period 1939 1941. 19451948 1949 1950. . . . . . 1951 1950: Third quarter Fourth quarter 1951: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1952: First quarter 4 Second quarter4 _ _ _ Third quarter Total ' 5,213 8, 190 7,406 20, 032 18, 021 17, 832 23, 290 18, 048 22, 068 19, 452 23, 652 23, 376 26, 688 22, 208 25, 424 24, 672 Total 1,943 3,400 3,983 9, 134 7, 149 7,491 11, 130 7,436 9,896 8, 616 11, 208 11, 364 13, 340 10, 968 13, 004 12, 348 Transportation Durable Nondurgoods able goods 756 (3) 1.590 3,483 2,594 3,135 5, 168 3,088 4,368 3,692 4,924 5,452 6,608 5,304 6,312 5,752 1,3 187 () 2,393 5,651 4,555 4,356 5,962 4,344 5,528 4,920 6, 284 5,904 6,732 5,664 6,692 6,596 Mining 380 680 443 802 738 684 796 720 792 732 812 796 844 752 868 868 Railroad Other 280 560 552 1,319 1,350 1, 136 1,541 1, 140 1,280 1,212 1,648 1,508 1,796 1,504 1,624 1,560 280 340 321 700 525 437 511 492 580 500 544 480 520 536 644 480 Electric Commerand and gas cial miscelutilities laneous 2 480 710 630 2,683 3,140 3,167 3,577 3,284 3.740 3,012 3,572 3,732 3,992 3,044 3, 736 4, 144 1, 850 2,490 1, 477 5,394 5,119 4,917 5,735 4,976 5,780 5,380 5,868 5,496 6, 196 5,404 5,548 5, 272 1 Excludes agriculture. »Commercial and miscellaneous composed of trade, service, finance, and communication. 34 Not available. Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business as reported in a survey made during the second quarter of 1952. NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Beserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other data. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Securities and E xchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted). 16 NEW CONSTRUCTION During July, new construction expenditures, seasonally adjusted, continued the moderate decline which had begun in April. All of the drop was accounted for by public construction. MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3,500 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3,500 ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION 3,000 3,000 2,500 2,500 2,000 2,000 i TOTAL PRIVATE I,50O 1,500 • PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL (NONFARM) 1,000 1,000 OTHER PRIVATE » FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL I I I I I 1950 I I I I I I | | I I I I 1952 1951 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. [Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Total new construction Period 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average June 1951 monthly average 1951: June July August -September October November December 1952: January February March April i.<*3 Mav June 2 July 1 1 - - « _ .--- __ Includes public residential construction. Preliminary estimates 683 1,173 438 1,000 1,798 1, 899 2,396 2,389 2,585 2,551 2,502 2, 505 2,523 2, 561 2,577 2,607 2,609 2, 743 2,854 2,811 2,743 2,722 2,686 Private construction Total Residential Other (nonfarm) private 142 223 366 142 143 285 114 182 68 469 335 803 674 1,389 715 676 689 1,365 751 1,050 1,801 736 1,808 . 1, 072 893 914 1,807 916 1,766 850 834 915 1,749 912 812 1,724 901 821 1,722 877 1,732 855 864 870 1, 734 872 862 1,734 902 837 1,739 912 901 1,813 909 1,920 1,011 954 905 1,859 897 904 1,801 882 893 1,775 901 883 1,784 Federal, State, and local l 317 888 256 197 409 534 595 581 778 785 753 781 801 829 843 873 870 930 934 952 942 947 902 Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor. 17 NEW HOUSING STARTS New housing starts in June were at about the level of the preceding 3 months, but approximately 20 percent below June 1951, when an unusually large number of public housing starts swelled the total. THOUSANDS OF UNITS THOUSANDS OF UNITS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS New nonfarm units started iviontn \/f f\-r\4-\~t January February March April May ' June . . July August September October November December "- - Total Monthly average J Preliminary estimates. Source: Department of Labor. 18 1949 1950 1951 1952 500 100 400 500 300 800 000 700 300 400 700 900 50, 000 50, 400 69, 400 88, 300 95, 400 95, 500 96, 100 99, 000 102, 900 104, 300 95, 500 78, 300 78, 700 82, 900 117,300 133, 400 149, 100 144, 300 144, 400 141, 900 120, 600 102, 500 87, 300 93, 600 85, 900 80, 600 93, 800 96, 200 101, 000 132, 500 90. 500 89, 100 96, 400 90, 000 74, 500 60, 800 64, 900 77, 700 103, 900 1 108, 000 1 107 000 H06 000 849, 000 931, 600 1, 025, 100 1, 396, 000 1, 091, 300 70, 750 77, 600 85, 425 116,300 90, 900 1947 X - 39, 300 42, 800 56, 000 67, 100 72, 900 77, 200 81, 100 86, 300 93, 800 94, 000 79, 700 58, 800 1948 53, • 50, 76, 99, 100, 97, 95, 86, 82, 73, 63, 52, INVENTORIES AND SALES In June, total business sales dropped about 3 percent and inventories almost 1 percent. Lower sales were registered at the manufacturing, wholesale, and retail levels, with manufacturing showing the largest drop. The only increase in inventories was at the wholesale level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RETAIL SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONTHLY AVERAGE INVENTORIES ..•'" I\.-*"I n I I I I I I I I I I I I I | I l l l l I 1940 42 44 46 48 50 t i i I I I I I I I I I I I I I i 1950 1951 I i I i i I i i 1952 PERCENT OF 1947-43 AVERAGE DEPARTMENT STORES 0 !„I I I J I I I I I I I I 1940 42 44 46 48 50 •* I I I I I I I I I I I 1950 I I I I I I ( . 1 1 I ]„ I I I I I I I I I I I 1951 1952 1940 42 44 46 48 50 1950 195! 1952 WHOLESALE, MANUFACTURING, AND RETAIL. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM, Total business Period Inventories 2 J Sales » Retail Inventories 2 Manufacturing Sales 8 Inventories 2 Sales » Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1939 __ 1943 1946 _ . 1947__ 1948 .. _ 1949 I960 June 1951 1951: May JuneJuly August September October November December 1952: January February __ _ March April 77 . _ May June 7 20, 051 10, 803 31, 343 21, 920 27, 151 42, 942 33, 157 50, 605 36, 438 55, 647 34, 467 50, 921 60, 434 39, 109 39, 239 52, 828 70, 107 43, 455 44, 728 68, 981 43, 052 69, 442 41,691 70, 268 70, 124 42, 930 41, 215 69, 965 44, 175 70, 068 43, 648 69, 991 41, 609 70, 107 43, 989 70, 219 45, 144 69, 899 69, 972 . 42, 627 44, 807 70, 185 44, 637 69, 914 69, 344 43, 340 5,534 7^561 11,852 14, 060 15, 828 14, 502 17, 793 15, 574 18, 093 20, 643 20, 282 20, 045 19, 429 18, 761 18, 545 18, 280 18, 093 18, 061 17, 980 17, 887 18, 010 17, 997 17,737 3, 504 5,270 8,541 " 9, 967 10, 877 10, 893 11, 974 12, 059 12, 549 12, 411 12, 240 12,058 12,429 12, 258 12,551 12, 492 12, 318 12, 650 12, 862 12, 399 12,711 13, 098 13, 039 11,465 20, 098 24, 498 28, 920 31, 734 28, 690 33, 253 29, 123 42, 014 38, 068 39, 009 39, 908 40, 621 41, 132 41, 424 41, 676 42, 014 42, 206 42, 192 42, 332 42, 513 42, 450 42, 100 5, 112 12, 820 12, 617 15, 918 17, 630 16, 339 19, 064 19,271 22, 036 23, 434 22, 133 21, 249 21, 677 20, 591 22, 463 22, 214 20, 761 22, 484 23, 334 21, 914 23, 324 23, 105 21, 900 Department stores Inven-5 New Sales l tories orders (millions of Index 1947-49=100, dollars) 4 seasonally adjusted (66) () 13, 694 15, 622 17, 337 15, 791 20, 731 20, 922 23, 991 23,582 24, 054 22, 556 22, 962 21, 536 24, 289 22, 627 20, 767 22, 565 22, 071 23, 133 23, 113 21,674 22, 500 35 55 77 93 107 100 110 105 129 136 135 138 134 128 121 117 119 118 116 115 116 118 118 35 56 90 98 104 98 105 103 109 104 105 105 109 107 108 113 109 108 106 105 103 108 111 1 Also includes wholesale, not shown separately in this table. • Index of book value, end of period, except annual data, which are averages of * Book value, end of period. monthly figures. 1 Monthly average for year and total for month. Not available. T * Data for new orders not adjusted for seasonal variation. Preliminary estimates. Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System. ' AW 8 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS The dollar value of exports dropped almost 20 percent in June, according to preliminary estimates, as both military and nonmilitary items sent abroad decreased. MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,600 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS ,600 1,200 1,200 O F M A M J J A S O N O J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N O I/ RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS, AND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUpiEO AREAS. SJ RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] Exports * Period 247 1936—38 monthly average 1943 monthlv average 1 946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average June 1951 monthly average 1951: March _April ' May June 1,080 812 " 856 877 . -««,-. « i July August September October November December 1952* January February March April May June 3 _ _ _ _ 20 1, 278 1, 054 1,003 - - -- - _---. -- •-- - 1, 252 1,295 1,370 1,354 1,297 1, 186 1, 269 1,232 1, 152 1,386 1,438 1,252 1,333 1,421 1,331 1, 461 1, 190 Imports * Excess of exports (+), imports (— ) 207 282 412 480 594 552 738 687 914 1, 102 1, 033 1,018 930 894 880 721 834 818 800 922 892 963 933 835 i3 Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and Department of Defense shipments under the Mutual Security Program. Recorded general merchandise impoi ts. 8 Preliminary estimate. NOTE: Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy. + 40 + 799 +400 + 799 + 461 + 452 + 119 + 190 + 339 + 194 + 337 + 337 + 366 + 292 + 389 + 510 + 318 + 568 + 637 + 330 + 441 + 458 + 402 + 626 PURCHASING POWER NATIONAL INCOME National income rose about $}£ billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) during the second quarter. Compensation of employees rose by an equal amount, while a small decrease in proprietors' income was offset by an increase in net interest. Corporate profits after adjustment for inventory valuation were unchanged from the first quarter level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 350 350 ~:::;: CORPORATE PROFITS "AND":::: :•:•:•:::: INVENTORY VALUATION;.-;:;: 1939 1948 1949 1950 1951 I 1952 2 1953 •^PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED). [Billions of dollars] Total national income Period 1939 1944 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 _ __ _ _-- Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment Compensation of employees Proprietors' (business, professional, farm) . and rental income Net interest 47.8 121.2 117. 1 128.0 140.2 139. 9 153.4 178.9 14.7 35.5 42.0 42.4 47.3 42. 1 45. 2 50.6 4.2 3. 1 2.9 3.5 4.3 5.0 5.8 6.4 72.5 183.8 180.3 198.7 223.5 216. 3 239. 2 277. 6 Total 5. 8 24.0 18.3 24.7 31.7 29. 2 34.8 41. 6 Profits before taxes Inventory valuation adjustment 6.5 24.3 23.5 30.5 33.8 27. 1 39. 6 42.9 0 7 -.3 -5.2 -5.8 -2. 1 +2.1 -4.8 -1.3 48.4 50. 1 43.3 38.6 39. 5 42.7 i 41.0 -8.6 — 9.4 — 2. 1 + 3.2 + 3.0 —.1 + 1.7 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1950: Fourth quarter 1951: First quarter Second quarter____ Third quarter Fourth quarter 1952: First quarter _ _ _ Second quarter 259.4 269. 6 274. 8 280.2 285. 6 288.0 288.4 - 165.4 172.9 178.2 181.0 183.4 186. 5 186. 9 48.0 49. 7 49.0 50.8 53. 1 52. 1 51.9 6.2 6.3 6.4 6. 5 6.6 6.7 6.9 39.8 40. 7 41. 2 41. 9 42. 5 42. 7 1 42.7 i Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). 21 CORPORATE PROFITS The annual rate of corporate profits before taxes declined about $1K billion from the first to the second quarter of this year, according to preliminary estimates. Dividend payments increased, while undistributed profits fell. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 60 60 3 Z/ 4 . 1 2 3 I-" 4 2* 3 4 I 2 NO ALLOWANCE FOR INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT. PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE {EXCEPT AS NOTED). [Billions of dollars] Corporate profits before taxes Period 1939 1944 1946 1947 .. . 1948 1949 1950 1951 ... _ 6. 5 24. 3 23. 5 30. 5 33. 8 27. 1 39. 6 42. 9 .. Corporate tax liability 1. 5 13. 5 9. 6 11. 9 13. 0 10. 8 18.4 24. 2 Corporate profits after taxes Total 5. 0 10. 8 13. 9 18. 5 20. 7 16. 3 21. 2 18. 7 Dividend payments 3. 8 4. 7 5.8 6. 6 7 2 7. 5 9.0 9. 0 Undistributed profits 1.2 6. 1 8. 1 12.0 13.5 8. 8 12. 3 9. 6 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1950: Third quarter Fourth quarter 1951: First quarter Second quarter _ Third quarter __ Fourth quarter 1952: First quarter— Second quarter 1 _ _ _ _ 44. 3 48. 4 50. 1 43. 3 38. 6 39. 5 42. 7 41. 0 20. 6 22. 5 - 28.4 24. 5 21. 8 22. 2 24. 7 23. 7 23. 7 26. 0 21. 7 18. 8 16. 9 17. 3 18. 1 17. 3 9.3 10. 7 8. 6 9. 0 9. 2 9. 3 8. 9 9. 6 14.4 15. 3 13. 1 9. 8 7. 7 8. 0 9. 2 7. 7 1 Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers. NOTE.—Corporate profits tax liability estimates for 1951 have been revised because of changes in the effective rate under 1951 tax legislation as estimated from tax collections. See p. 21 for profits before taxes and inventory valuation adjustment. Detail will not neoftssarilv add to totals because of round ID g. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). 22 PERSONAL INCOME In June, personal income rose at an annual rate of $1 K billion (seasonally adjusted). Farm income accounted for most of the gain. Salaries and wages also increased while other major components were practically unchanged. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 300 300 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS. [Billions of dollars] Totai persona] income Period 1939 1944 1948 J949 1950 1951 72. 6 165. 9 209. 5 205. 9 226. 3 254. 1 . 1950: June.1951: April May June July August September October November. December. 1952: January February March April May___ _ June 3 __ __ __ _ _ _ __ __ 221. 0 250. 0 251. 4 254. 3 254, 5 256. 7 257. 3 261. 7 260. 9 263. 4 263. 4 263. 5 261. 9 262. 5 264. 5 266. 0 Proprietor s' income 1 Labor income (salaries, Dividends Business, wages, and professional, and personal Farm other labor interest and rental income)1 income 45. 7 4. 5 10. 3 9. 2 116. 2 11. 8 23. 7 10. 6 134. 9 17. 7 29 6 16. 0 134. 3 13. 0 28.4 17 1 146. 5 13. 3 31. 9 19. 5 170. 7 15. 6 20. 4 35. 0 Seasonally adjust*3d annual rates 144. 9 168. 6 169. 5 172. 4 171. 5 172. 1 173. 0 174. 8 175. 5 176. 9 177.4 178. 8 178. 2 177. 8 179. 0 179. 6 12. 1 14. 7 14. 4 14. 2 .15.4 16. 2 15. 8 17. 4 16. 4 17. 1 16. 6 15. 2 14. 4 14. 4 14. 6 15. 5 31. 7 34. 4 34. 6 34. 6 34, 7 35. 3 35. 1 36. 0 36. 1 36. 2 36. 5 36. 6 35. 9 36. 5 36. 8 37. 0 Transfer payments 18. 7 20. 3 20. 3 20. 4 20. 4 20. 5 21.0 20. 8 20. 5 21. 1 20. 1 20. 5 21. 0 21. 5 21. 5 21. 4 ' Excludes employee contributions for social insurance, and self-employed contributions (which became effective January 1952). * Includes $2.7 billion National Service Life Insurance dividend, most of which was paid in the first half of the year. * Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. 2 3. 0 3. 6 11.3 12. 4 15. 1 12.4 13. 6 12. 0 12. 6 12.7 12. 5 12. 6 12. 4 12. 7 12.4 12. 1 12. 8 12.4 12.4 12. 3 12. 6 12. 5 23 CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING Personal consumption expenditures rose slightly more than disposable income in the second quarter, according to preliminary estimates. Consequently, there was a slight decline in the rate of saving. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 1940 41 42 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25O 43 44 45 1953 PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES. I/ PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED). COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS. Disposable personal income l Period Less: Personal consumption expenditures Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Equals: Personal net saving Net saving as percent of disposable income Billions of dollars 1939 1941 _ 1942__ 1944 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 -. ... . _ __ _ 70.2 92.0 116. 7 147.0 158.9 169.5 188.4 187.2 205. 5 225. 0 67.5 82.3 91. 2 111.6 146.9 165.6 177.9 180. 6 194.3 208.0 6.7 9.8 7.1 7. 1 16.6 21.4 22.9 23.8 29. 2 27. 1 35.3 44.0 52.9 67.1 85.8 95. 1 100.9 99.2 102. 8 113.5 25.5 28.5 31.2 37.4 44.5 49. 1 54. 1 57.5 62.4 67.3 2.7 9.8 25.6 35.4 12.0 3.9 10.5 6.7 11.2 17.0 3.8 10.7 21.9 24. 1 7.6 2.3 5.6 3.6 5. 5 7.6 16.6 7.5 18.7 20.7 21.1 17.3 16.5 7.7 3.4 8.4 9. 1 9. 1 7.5 7. 1 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1950* Fourth quarter 1951 1 First quarter Second quarter __ Third quarter Fourth quarter 1952" First quarter Second quarter ^ _ _ _ __ _ _ __ - 216.0 218. 0 223. 2 227. 1 231. 5 230.5 231. 5 199.4 210.5 204. 5 206.4 210.5 213.2 214.9 1 Income less taxes. 2 Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—^Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. 24 29.7 31.3 26.3 25.5 25.3 25. 2 26.4 105.3 113. 3 111. 3 113.2 116.2 118.0 117. 8 64.4 65.9 66. 9 67.6 69.0 70.0 70.8 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE INCOME Per capita disposable income, adjusted for price changes, has remained remarkably stable since 1950. DOLLARS 1,600 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES ANNUAL AVERAGES 1,200 CURRENT PRICES 1 | I I I I | I | I I I I 47 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 I960 I 1951 1952 1953 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total disposable personal Per capita disposable perincome (billions of dollars)1 sonal income (dollars)1 Period Current prices 1939 1941 1942 1944 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 - _ ..__ - _- --_ ... _ ... . 70.2 92. 0 116. 7 147.0 158.9 169.5 188.4 187.2 205.5 225. 0 1951 prices 2 135.5 166. 1 187.3 205.9 200. 4 194.4 204.8 205.7 220.7 225.0 Current prices 536 690 866 1,062 1, 124 1, 176 1,285 1,255 1, 355 1,458 1951 prices 2 1,035 1, 245 1,390 1,487 1,417 1,349 1,397 1,379 1,455 1,458 Population (thousands)8 130, 880 133, 377 134, 831 138, 390 141, 398 144, 129 146, 621 149, 149 151, 689 154, 353 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1950: Fourth quarter _ _ 1951: First quarter Second quarterThird quarter Fourth quarter 1952: First quarter -_4 Second quarter _ __*_ __ __ 216. 0 226. 2 1,414 1,481 152, 774 218. 0 223.2 227. 1 231.5 219.8 223. 6 227.3 229.0 1,421 1,449 1,468 1,489 1,432 1,452 1,469 1,473 153, 396 154, Oil 154, 724 155, 466 230.5 231.5 227.5 228. 1 1,477 1,477 1, 458 1,455 156, 098 156, 700 i Income less taxes. * Dollar estimates in current prices divided bj the price index of personal consumption expenditures. This price index was based on the Department of Commerce data, shifted from 1939 base. » Provisional intercensal estimates of the population of the United States including Armed Forces overseas, taking into account the final 1950 Census total population count. Annual data as of July 1; quarterly data centered in the middle of the period, interpolated from monthly figures. * Preliminary estimates. Source: Department of Commerce. 25 FARM INCOME In June 1952, the increase in farm income was much more pronounced than in June 1951. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 5 1940 41 42 43 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 5 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 M INCOME IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY PARITY INDEX ON BASE I95I»IOO. NOTE: FARM INCOME INCLUDES CASH RECEIPTS FROM MARKETINGS AND GOVERNMENT PAYMENTS. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Period 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average June 1951 monthly average 1951: May June _ - - July August September October ._ November December 1952: January-. February. March April 3 *. Mav June 3 ' « _ . _ _ _ -- - Parity index Farm income (prices paid, Farm income (millions of interest, taxes, (millions of current and wage rates) 1951 dollars) * dollars) 1951 = 100! 715 43 1 663 968 47 2 060 1, 763 65 2 712 2, 110 74 2 851 2, 540 2 761 - -92 2,350 89 2, 640 2, 421 91 2, 660 1, 885 90 2 094 2, 756 100 2 756 2, 153 101 2, 132 2, 169 100 2, 169 2,652 100 2 652 2,992 100 2, 992 3,395 100 3, 395 4,355 101 4, 312 3,601 101 -3 565 101 3, 115 3, 084 2,642 102 2, 590 102 2,043 2, 003 2, 122 102 2, 080 2, 100 103 .2 039 2, 177 103 2 114 2, 366 _ 102 2 320 i Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1951—100. * Farm income in current dollars divided by parity index n base 1951=100. * Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—Farm income includes cash receipts from marketings and Government payments. Source: Department of Agriculture. 26 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS CREDIT, MONEY, AND FEDERAL FINANCE BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS Total bank loans and investments expanded around $1.7 billion during June. Ail major components increased, with loans showing the largest rise. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 150 150 m'•f£z*&*&*&£*la& .-• «;.u;s%.!;r INVESTMENT IN,-,:» 1939 1945 1949 1950 1951 j F M A M J J A S - ' O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O t K D " ) 1950 END OF. YEAR 195* 1952 END OF MONTH COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. [Billions of dollars] All commercial banks End of period 1939 1945 1947_ 1948 1949 1950 ..- _- - . .. June 1951 1951: June July August September^ . October November December 1952: January February March April May June 2 _ Julv __ - _ _ _ Investments Total loans and investments Bank loans 40.7 124. 0 116.3 114.3 120.2 126.7 121.8 132.6 126.0 126. 1 127.0 128. 6 130.5 131.9 132.6 132.8 132.2 132. 5 132. 3 133. 1 134.8 17.2 26. 1 38. 1 42.5 43. 0 52. 2 44. 8 57.7 54.8 54. 6 55.2 56.0 56.8 57. 3 57.7 57.5 57. 6 57.8 58.2 58. 5 59. 6 i Commercial .industrial, and agricultural loans. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Total 23.4 97.9 78.2 71.8 77.2 74.4 77.0 74.9 71. 2 71.5 71. 9 72. 6 73.7 74.6 74.9 75.3 74.6 74. 7 74. 1 74. 5 75.2 U. S. Government securities 16.3 90.6 69. 2 62. 6 67.0 62.0 65.8 61.5 58.5 58.7 59. 1 59.7 60.9 61.6 61.5 62.0 61.3 61. 1 60.4 60.7 61.2 Other securities Weekly reporting member banks— Business loans * 7. 1 7.3 9.0 9.2 10.2 12.4 11.2 13.3 12.7 12.8 12.7 12.9 12.9 13.0 13.3 13.3 13.4 13. 6 13.7 13.8 14. 0 4.4 7.3 14.6 15.6 13.9 17.8 13.6 21.6 19.2 19.0 19.5 20. 1 20. 6 20.9 21.6 21.2 21.2 21.4 20. 9 20.5 20.8 20.6 a Preliminary estimates. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 CONSUMER CREDIT During June, instalment credit climbed about $600 million or 4 percent, dollarwise the largest monthly increase on record. In contrast, instalment credit crept up only $35 million during June 1951. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 25 M A :M J J A S 0XN^ I9J52 1951 END OF MONTH COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. [Millions of dollars] Instalment credit End of period 1939 1943 1946 1949 1950 ... June .. 1951 1951: May June .. July . August September October November December 1952 1 Januarv February March __ April 3 May June 3 - Total consumer credit outstanding Total instalment credit 7,031 4,600 8,677 16, 809 20, 097 17, 651 20, 644 19, 207 19, 256 19, 132 19, 262 19, 362 19, 585 19, 989 20, 644 20, 126 19, 717 19, 565 19, 788 20, 298 20, 941 4,424 2,001 4,000 10, 890 13, 459 12, 105 13, 510 12, 920 12, 955 12, 903 13, 045 13, 167 13, 196 13, 271 13, 510 13, 314 13, 185 13, 156 13, 319 13, 811 14, 404 Sale credit Total 2,792 882 1,648 6,240 7,904 6, 995 7,546 7,248 7,234 7,173 7,247 7, 327 7,355 7,400 7,546 7,322 7,158 7,047 7,099 7; 421 7,795 Automobile sale credit 1,267 175 544 3, 144 4, 126 3,790 4,039 3,980 4,041 4,061 4, 138 4, 175 4, 134 4, 100 4,039 3,962 3,927 3,891 3,946 4, 171 4,433 Other sale credit 1,525 707 1, 104 3,096 3, 778 3,205 3,507 3,268 3, 193 3, 112 3, 109 3, 152 3,221 3,300 3,507 3,360 3,231 3,156 3, 153 3,250 3,362 Loans * 1,632 .1, 119 2,352 4,650 5,555 5, 110 5,964 5,672 5, 721 5,730 5, 798 5,840 5,841 5,871 5, 964 5,992 6,027 6,109 6,220 6,390 6,609 Charge accounts Other consumer credit 2 1,544 1, 498 3, 054 3, 909 4,239 3,392 4, 587 3,793 3, 804 3,743 3,724 3, 696 3,868 4, 190 4,587 4,253 3, 967 3, 855 3,913 3,921 3,972 i Includes repair and modernization loans insured by Federal Housing Administration. *1 Includes loans by pawnbrokers, service credit, and unclassified single-payment loans under $3,000 made by commercial banks. Preliminary estimates. NotB.—Detail wiHlnot necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System. 28 1,063 1,101 1,623 2, 010 2, 399 2,154 2,547 2,494 2,497 2, 486 2,493 2,499 2,521 2,528 2,547 2,559 2,565 2,554 2,556 2,566 2,565 BOND YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES During July, a sharp climb in yields on new issues of Treasury bills resulted in the highest monthly average since March 1933. The rate on commercial paper and yields on long-term Government bonds were unchanged/ yields on corporate bonds rose slightly. PERCENT PER PERCENT PER ANNUM ANNUM 3.5 3.5 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A 1947 1948 1949 1950 1952 •^SEE NOTE Z ON TABLE BELOW. COUNCIL SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] U. S. Government security yields Period Average: 1939_ 1946 1947_ 19481949 1950 3-month Treasury bills i .. I June 1951 1951: June July.. August September October November December 1952: January. . . February March April May June July . .. . . ._ .... . . .. . . , . . . . 1 Rate on new issues within period. 1 16 years and over prior to April 1952; 12 years 1 _ 0.023 .375 .594 1.040 1. 102 1.218 1. 174 1.552 1.499 1.593 1. 644 1.646 1.608 1.608 1.731 1.688 1.574 1.658 1. 623 1.710 1.700 1. 824 and over beginning in April. Bonds in this classification were first issued in March 1941. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Taxablea bonds (8) 2. 19 2.25 2.44 2.31 2.32 2.33 2.57 2.65 2.63 2.57 2.56 2.61 2.66 2.70 2.74 2. 71 2.70 2. 64 2.57 2. 61 2.61 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) 3.01 2.53 2.61 2.82 2.66 2.62 2.62 2.86 2.94 2.94 2.88 2.84 2.89 2. 96 3.01 2.98 2.93 2.96 2. 93 2. 93 2.93 2.95 Prime commercial paper, 4-6 months 0.59 .81 1.03 1.44 1,48 1.45 1.31 2.17 2.31 2.31 2.26 2. 19 2.21 2. 25 2.31 2.38 2.38 2.38 2.35 2.31 2.31 2.31 MONEY SUPPLY The total money supply reached a new high during June, with a rise of $2.1 billion. The gain was divided about equally between U. S. Government deposits and privately-held demand and time accounts. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 225 BILLIONS OP DOLLARS 225 TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY TOTAL EXCLUDING U. S. GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS (PRIVATELY-HELD MONEY SUPPLY) 125 DEMAND DEPOSITS ADJUSTED TIME DEPOSITS^ CURRENCY OUTSIDE BANKS U.S. GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS 1940 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 END OF YEAR 50 51 J F M A M J J A S O N D 1950 1951 END OF MONTH 1952 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total deposits and currency End of period 1939 1945 1946 1948 1949 1950 ._ June« _ _- 1951.. ... 1951: May... June July August September. . . October _. November. December 1952: January.February _ March April __ __ Mav June 4 64. 7 176.4 167.5 172.7 173.9 180.6 174.7 189.8 179. 1 181.3 180.8 181.6 183.8 185.8 187. 1 189.8 188.2 188.0 188.7 188. 7 189. 3 191.4 [Billions of dollars] Total excluding U. S. Government deposits (privately-held money supply) U. S. Government Demand Currency Time deposits l deposits Total outside deposits 3 adjusted 2 banks 6.4 27. 1 29.8 63. 3 1.5 75.9 150. 8 48.5 26.5 25. 6 26. 7 164.0 83.3 54.0 3.5 26. 1 169. 1 3.6 57.5 85.5 25.4 169.8 4. 1 85.8 58.6 59.2 25,4 176.9 92.3 3.7 25.2 85.0 170.0 59.7 4.8 98.2 61.4 186.0 3.9 26.3 24,9 5.4 89.5 59.3 173.7 89.0 25.8 174.7 59.9 6.6 25. 1 90.7 175.8 5. 0 60. 1 60.4 91.4 25.3 177.0 4.6 92.0 177.9 25. 4 5.9 60. 5 95.0 25.7 4.2 181.6 60.9 96.3 25.8 182.7 4.4 60.6 98.2 186.0 3.9 61.4 26,3 25.6 185.2 97.9 3.0 61.7 95.7 25. 6 183.4 62.0 4.6 25. 7 182. 9 94.8 62.5 5.8 25.9 62. 8 95. 1 183.8 4.9 26.0 184.4 95.3 63.0 4.9 26. 0 63.5 95. 8 185. 3 6. 1 i Includes U. 8. Government deposits at Federal Reserve banks and commercial and savings banks, and U. 8. Treasurer's time deposits, open3 account. / Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. 8. Government, less cash items in process of collection. 1 Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System, but excludes interbank deposits. * Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—Detail will not Beerssarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 30 FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES Total budget expenditures declined from June to July. The large seasonal drop in interest payments was partly offset by the increase in spending for national security. Spending for the latter purpose was almost 40 percent higher than in July 1951. July receipts were seasonally low, but higher than a year ago. The public debt rose to $263 billion during the month. BILlJONS 75 BILLJONS OF DOLLARS 75 TOTAL BUDGET EXPENDITURES FISCAL YEAR 1952 » 25 Ta!GALYEAR ISOO *>' ^' ^r \'''-' 0 J&T*** \ NET BUDGET RECEIPTS / /' ...-••• ,''' .-••• 50 S +++* _^^ - OF DOLLARS .++ ..-"" ..-'-^FISCAL YEAR .,/ 50 25 FISCAL YEAR 1952 1951 ++ FISCAL YEAR I9 ! 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 0 —*€?**** 75 ^^ ***** J>,-^^^FISCAL YEAR 1951 ^^ f 1 /:'--•" /'--- 1 1 1 i 1 1 ! 1 1 -HO MAJOR NATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAMS BUDGET SURPLUS (+) OR DEFlOlT (-) (MAGNIFIED SCALE) +5 ~ 50 * FISCAL YEAR 1951 0 FISCAL YEAR 1952 25 FISCAL YEAR ^" ^*** l99 3 ,V ^*** ^*** -*-** i 0 ^rft---f** *T* „***"*** 1 1 „ .— *V >FISCAL YEAR 1 1 1 1 I \c~" I . \ FISCAL YEAR 1953 * % ^*** -***** /NX^-V -5 ***** s**. *%% / FISCAL YEAR 1952 ^*^L / ^X. / / X,^,, / ^^ /~ ^ I 1 1951 1 -10 1 1 I 1 ! I 1 1 I FISCAL YEARS -CUMULATIVE TOTALS SC URGES: TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND BUREAU OF THE BUDGET. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] surplus (+) . Net budget receipts Budget or deficit (— ) Budget expenditures Public Major national debt Cumulasecurity programs 1 CumulaTotal for tive fiscal Total for tive fiscal (end of2 CumulaCumulaperiod) Total for tive fiscal Total for tive fiscal period year year totals period period year totals period year totals totals Total Period Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal 1951: year 1939 year 1944 year 1948 year 1950 year 1951 year 1952 June July August September October November _ December. 1952: January February. March April May . June July _ __ - -_ -- 9.0 95.3 33.8 40. 2 44.6 66. 1 6.0 4.7 5. 1 5.2 5.5 5.2 5.6 5.5 5. 1 5.7 6.0 5.7 6. 9 6.7 44.6 4.7 9.8 15.0 20.5 25.6 31.3 36.7 41. 8 47.5 53.6 59.2 66. 1 6.7 1. 1 88.2 16. 4 17.8 8 26.4 46.2 3.5 3.4 3.6 3. 1 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.9 3.8 4. 1 4.5 4. 5 4.3 4 4. 7 26.2 3.4 7.0 10. 1 13.8 17.4 21. 1 25.0 28. 8 32.8 37.3 41.9 46.2 4 4. 7 5. 1 43. 9 42. 2 37. 0 48. 1 62. 1 7. 1 2.6 3. 6 6.2 2. 6 3.5 5.3 5.0 5. 6 9. 9 4.3 3. 8 9. 8 3.3 48. 1 2. 6 6. 2 12.4 15. 0 18.5 23.8 28.8 34. 3 44.2 48. 5 52. 3 62. 1 3. 3 -3.9 — 51. 4 + 8.4 -3. 1 + 3.5 —4. 0 + 1.1 -2.2 -1.5 + 1.0 -2. 8 -1.7 Q -.5 + .4 +4.2 -1.7 -1. 9 + 2. 9 -3.4 45.9 202. 6 252.4 257.4 255. 3 + 3.5 -2.2 -3.7 -2.6 -5.5 -7. 1 -7.5 -8.0 -7.5 -3.3 -5. 0 -6. 9 -4.0 -3.4 259.2 255.3 255.7 256.7 257.4 258.3 259.6 259. 5 259. 8 260. 4 258. 1 258.3 260. 0 259. 2 263. 1 i Includes expenditures for military services, international security and foreign relations, development and control of atomic energy, promotion of the merchant marine, promotion of defense production and economic stabilization, and civil defense. a Includes guaranteed securities, except those held by the Treasury. « Preliminary estimates. * Data for fiscal year not strictly comparable with monthly figures. ^_ NOTB.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget. OI FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC The $0.7 billion excess of cash receipts over payments in the second quarter, which was the closing quarter for fiscal year 1952, was sufficient to bring about a small cash surplus for the fiscal year. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 1949 1952 EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS EXCESS OF CASH PAYMENTS 2 3 1952 1951 1950 1949 CALENDAR YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE-. BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT. [Millions of dollars] Federal cash receipts from the public Calendar year Calendar year total: 1946 1947 1948 1949 ._ 195<L_ _ _ _ 1951—. Quarterly total, not adjusted for seasonal variation: 1950: First quarter „ Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1951: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter- _ Fourth quarter 1952: First quarter. Second Quarter .. - 41, 399 38, 616 36, 897 42, 642 41, 969 58, 034 +42 + 5,666 + 8,027 — 1, 295 +450 + 1,245 _- _ 12, 235 9,303 10, 494 10, 387 18, 051 14, 462 13, 993 12, 770 21, 874 19, 389 10, 760 11, 105 9,351 10, 754 11, 179 14, 521 15, 270 17, 064 16, 921 18, 701 • + 1,475 — 1,803 + 1,143 -367 + 6,874 — 59 - 1, 277 — 4, 295 +4, 953 + 688 . _ -. _ -_ Excess of receipts (+) or payments (—) 41, 441 44, 282 44, 922 41, 346 42, 419 59, 276 ._ _ Federal cash payments to the public NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget. For sale by tlie Superintendent of Documents, U. S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D. C. Price 20 cents per copy ; $2.00 per year; $2.50 foreign. 32