Full text of Economic Indicators : August 1949
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oisr congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators AUGUST 1949 Prepared for the Joint Committee on the by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1949 JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT (Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming, Chairman EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey, Vice Chairman FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas JOHN J. SPARKMAN, Alabama WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois FRANK BUCHANAN, Pennsylvania ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts GROVER W. ENSLEY, Associate Staff Director FRED E. BERQUIST, Economist WILLIAM H. MOORE, Economist JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S. J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled., That the Joint Committee on the Economic Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Committee on the Economic Report; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949- To the Members of Congress: From the time the Joint Committee on the Economic Report was established its members realized that one of its basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture of current economic trends and developments. Fortunately, the joint committee found that Economic Indicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiled monthly by the Council of Economic Advisers, admirably filled this need. While this material was prepared originally for the use of the President, the Council, and other officials in the executive offices, the Council made it available to the joint committee. Other Members of Congress also expressed an interest in being able to obtain a quick picture of current economic facts without having to go through voluminous and specialized documents. In addition businessmen, farm leaders, labor organizations, and representatives of the press and radio indicated their desire for this information. Accordingly, the joint committee provided the Congress and the public with a limited number of copies of Economic Indicators as a committee print pending final action on authorizing the publication on a more permanent basis. As is indicated above such legislation has now been passed and the committee will issue the report on a regular monthly basis. Comments or suggestions with respect to possible improvements in this presentation will always be welcome. 11 Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report. Letter of Transmitted Hon. JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report, United States Congress, Washington, D. C. DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the Joint Committee on the Economic Report in making Economic Indicators available to the Congress as a whole and to the general public, in accordance with Public Law 120, Eightyfirst Congress. In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has found it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts showing current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a better position to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the improvement and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services. In this undertaking the Council has the full cooperation of the several agencies of the Federal Government that collect statistical material. In many cases these agencies supply advance estimates for use in Economic Indicators. While the charts are drawn through the courtesy of the Graphics Unit in the Office of the Secretary of Commerce, the Council takes complete responsibility for the graphic presentation. This material has proven useful to the President, the Council, the executive departments, and the Congress. Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and consumer organizations with whom we regularly consult. We believe that the Congress is performing a service of real value by making this material available. Sincerely yours, y / * «/<*Wv^ 7 v\ (n^s^~^~~ -Chairman. /• " I Vice Chairman. U 111 Contents THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET The Nation's Economic Budget Page 1 PRICES Consumers' Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers Stock Prices 2 3 4 5 EMPLOYMENT Labor Force Employment in Business and Government Average Weekly Hours Work Stoppages 6 7 8 9 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Production of Selected Durable Manufactures Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures Weekly Production—Selected Indicators New Construction New Housing Starts Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment New Corporate Security Issues Inventories and Sales Merchandise Exports and Imports 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 PURCHASING POWER National Income Corporate Profits Personal Income Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving Per Capita Income Average Hourly Earnings Average Weekly Earnings Farm Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Consumer Credit 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE Bank Loans and Investments. Money Supply Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public iv 30 31 32 THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET The Nation's Economic Budget total decreased less than 3 percent from 1st to 2nd quarter of 1949, according to preliminary estimates. A shift from accumulation to liquidation of inventories accounted for most of the 19 percent drop in business outlays. Government expenditures increased about 9 percent, chiefly as result of transfer payments. 1949 1st (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)" 7 Quarter excess OF * TOTAL EXPENDITURES { - ) , RECEIPTS ( -f ) ( G r o s s National Product ) 2 6 2 5 ) CONSUMERS Transfer poyment,^ ;i;;jiji!i;i:;:;:|:;:!:|:;:i:;:i:;:i:i:!i!i;i;i;iii;i;i;iii:i;i;i;ii ;i;!|!!;i;!!i;ii!i|j!0 T $. ::ij:!!;l;::i;!;:;ii;;:;!::#;*;: : : . .o =:;:;:;:;:;:;:;:;:;:;:;:;:;:;:;:. i:;. ;;i. i;:;;;;;::!:;;;;i;;>::;!-;:i:;:;:i:i:i:;:;:;:|:;:;:;:i:;:i:;:;:;l 9 5 :.:.'.::.:--i:i--.::;:.::.::|;.:i;;;:.:.:;.:.:i;.:;i:.:;i;.:.:.::.:,:.::.::i::-:.::.::.::.::;:.:: ~~ + 1 -* ™~ CONSUMER } SAVING •TT.9 BUSINESS 27 s ' EXCESS OF INVESTMENT 41 9 ' INTERNATIONAL 1 EXCESS OF 1 RECEIPTS f" jo, GOVERNMENT (Federal, state and local) 3, | CASH SURPLUS 57.5 56.7 ?, 1949, 2nd TOTAL Quarter ( B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS) ( G r o s s National Product) ?OOCXXX^OO\X?OOOQO& CONSUMERS T f Transfer 2J » payments^ I l ::::::::: ::i:: : : : : : : : : | ii|i|||i;;;|;nNCpMEll| ^i:i:::-':i:^:x:i:^:i^i^!^i:i:::;^::i:;:;:^:^:i^ 25 , Q dl9 7 •.'••.'••.'••.'••.'••.'••.'••.'••.'••.'•'.'•\ !-!:;:;:;:.:::::( GON~ .Illiiliiiliiilii SUMER -z ^;-»;i-;;;-i.-;.-il SAVING 1T>?r BUSINESS EXCESS OF INVESTMENT INTERNATIONAL EXCESS OF INVESTMENT GOVERNMENT ( Federal, state and local) j 'f, 6 " ' a- CASH DEFICIT ^-Transfer payments^ j I/ 1 2j ^TRANSFER ' PA SOURCE: SEE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JULY 1949 , ^ DJUS E 1 CLUDED APPENDIX A. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S ; PRICES CONSUMERS' PRICES Consumers' prices rose slightly in June reflecting a seasonal increase in food prices which more than offset continued declines in apparel and housefurnishings. Rents continued their upward creep. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE 200 _ 1941 1940 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1948 1947 ,20 1949 SOURCE-' DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. [1935-39-100] Period 1939 monthly average 1940 monthly average _ 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average _ _ 1948: June July . _ _ _ _ _ August September. October November... December 1949: January _ _ _ February March__ _ _ _ _ _ _ April May— _ _ _ _ _ _ j _ June _ .. All items 99. 4 100. 2 105. 2 116. 5 123. 6 125 5 128. 4 139 3 159. 2 171. 2 171. 7 173. 7 174. 5 174. 5 173. 6 172. 2 171. 4 170. 9 169. 0 169. 5 169. 7 169. 2 169. 6 Food 95. 2 96. 6 105. 5 123. 9 138. 0 136. 1 139. 1 159. 6 193. 8 210. 2 214. 1 216. 8 216. 6 215. 2 211. 5 207. 5 205. 0 204. 8 199. 7 201. 6 202. 8 202. 4 204. 3 NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities, Source: Department of Labor. Apparel 100. 5 101. 7 106. 3 124. 2 129. 7 138. 8 145. 9 160. 2 185. 8 198.0 196. 9 197. 1 199. 7 201. 0 201. 6 201. 4 200. 4 196. 5 195. 1 193. 9 192. 5 191. 3 I'.K). ;* Rent 104. 3 104. 6 106. 2 108. 5 108.0 108. 2 108.3 108. 6 111.2 117. 4 117. 0 117.3 117. 7 118. 5 118. 7 118. 8 119. 5 119.7 119. 9 120. 1 120. 3 120.4 .1 20. 6 Fuel, electricity, and refrigeration House furnishings 99.0 99. 7 102. 2 105.4 107.7 109. 8 110.3 112. 4 121. 1 133. 9 132. 6 134. 8 136. 8 137. 3 137. 8 137. 9 137. 8 138. 2 138. 8 138. 9 137.4 135. 4 1 35. 6 101. 3 100. 5 107. 3 122. 2 125. 6 136. 4 145. 8 159.2 184.4 195.8 194.8 195. 9 196. 3 198. 1 198.8 198. 7 198.6 196. 5 195. 6 193. 8 191. 9 189. 5 1 87. 3 Miscellaneous 100. 7 101. 1 104.0 110. 9 115. 8 121. 3 124. 1 128. 8 139.9 149.9 147. 5 150. 8 152.4 152. 7 153. 7 153. 9 154. 0 154. 1 154. 1 154.4 154. 6 154. 5 1 54. 2 WHOLESALE PRICES Farm products and food prices rose during the first three weeks of July but ended the month at about the same level that prevailed at the end of June. PERCENT OF 1926 A V E R A G E PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE 220 220 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. [1926=100] Period 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average _ __ 1946 monthly average _ -~ June -1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average „ _ . 1948" June July - -August September - October - - November December _ 1949' January February March April _ - jjVlav ~ June l -July Week ended: julv 5 _ . _ _ _ "12 - 19 _ --26 87.3 98.8 121. 1 112. 9 152. 1 165. 1 166. 4 168.8 169. 8 168.9 165.4 164.0 162. 4 160. 6 158. 1 - 158. 4 156.9 155. 7 154. 4 ] 53. 8 82.4 105. 9 148.9 140. 1 181. 2 188.3 196.0 195.2 191.5 189.9 183.5 180.8 177.3 172.5 168.3 171.5 170.5 171. 2 168. 5 167. 2 82.7 99. 6 130. 7 112.9 168. 7 179. 1 181. 4 188.3 189.8 186. 9 178. 2 174. 3 170.2 165.8 161.5 162. 9 162.9 163.8 162.4 162. 2 Other than farm products and foods 89.0 95. 5 109. 5 105.6 135.2 151. 0 149.9 151.4 153. 3 153.6 153.4 153.6 153. 1 152.9 151. 8 150.7 148.9 146.8 145.5 145. 1 152. 7 154. 2 154. 3 152. 8 152. 6 165. 6 168. 5 168.4 164. 3 164, 3 161. 3 164. 2 164.2 161. 2 160. 6 145.2 145. 1 144. 9 All commodities Farm products Foods 144. 5 145. 1 Aug. 2 1 Estimate based on change in weekly index. ^TOTE —The weekly index presented here is a revised index which permits direct comparison with the monthly index. It is not comparable with the old weekly index which does not permit such a comparison. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS The gradual decline in the average level of farm prices, and in the farm parity ratio, continued from June to July. PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE MONTHLY AVERAGE PRICES RECEIVED PRICES PAID (INCL. INTEREST, TAXES) 200 PARITY RATIO* I 1939 40 I 41 I 42 I 43 44 I 45 I 46 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 47 J F M A M J 48 J A S O N D J F 1947 M A M J J A S O D J F M A M J J A S 0 N D 1949 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Prices paid by Prices (includ- Parity ratio * received l farmers ing interesta by farmers and taxes) Period 1939 monthly average _ _ 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1 944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1 946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948: June July August September October November December 1949: January February March April May June July N 1948 - ___ . _ _ . - -_ - _ 1 August 1909-July 2 1910-14= 100. 3 .._ „ 124 132 150 162 169 172 193 231 249 95 124 159 192 195 202 233 278 287 295 301 293 290 277 271 268 251 251 251 250 249 247 247 77 94 106 119 116 117 121 120 115 118 120 117 116 111 109 108 268 258 261 260 256 252 249 248 245 246 246 245 245 244 108 105 106 106 104 103 102 1914=100. Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, and taxes. Source: Department of Agriculture. STOCK PRICES Stock prices in July rose sharply, wiping out most of the decline since January. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE 175 PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 A V E R A G E 175 WEEKLY AVERAGE RAILROADS /'\. 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 _] 1 II i i i I I A S UTILITIES ii i i i ii i l l M t J F M A M J 193940 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 .••" V O N J F J A M A M 1947 1 1 1 1 1 I t S O N 1949 1948 SOURCE: STANDARD AND POOR'S CORPORATION. [1935-39 = 100] Combined index 1 Period Weekly average: 1939 1942 __ 1946 1948 1948: June July August September October November _ December 1949: January February March . April May ._ June July Week ended: July 6 13 20 _ _ 27 Aug. 3 2 _ _ _ Industrials Railroads Utilities 94 2 69. 4 139 9 124. 4 135. 1 131. 9 127. 1 125. 7 127. 8 120. 4 119 4 121 0 117. 2 118 0 118 5 117. 7 112. 0 117. 8 94 8 71. 3 143 4 130. 6 142. 7 138. 9 133. 5 131. 7 134. 3 126. 4 125. 5 127. 3 122. 7 123. 7 124. 2 123. 4 117. 0 123. 4 74. 7 66. 1 143. 0 114. 7 125. 6 124. 7 119. 7 120.4 120. 9 108. 8 105. 8 105. 9 99.6 97. 4 97. 1 95. 8 88. 4 90. 6 98. 6 61. 3 120. 2 96. 2 100. 6 99.5 97. 3 97.3 97. 4 94. 2 92. 9 94. 2 94.4 95. 3 96. 1 95. 3 93. 0 95. 4 115 4 117. 2 118 8 119. 6 120. 3 121. 0 123. 2 125. 1 125. 9 126. 6 88. 7 90.3 91. 5 92.0 91. 7 94. 5 94. 8 95. 7 96.4 97. 3 1 Combined index prior to June 23, 1948, was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials, 20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads, and 31 utilities. 2 Data became available after chart was prepared. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 94851--49Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis i l l EMPLOYMENT LABOR FORCE Unemployment rose moderately in July to 4.1 million. Total employment, however, also increased slightly. MILLIONS MILLIONS OF PERSONS OF PERSONS 70 70 UNEMPLOYMENT 50 30 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT J UNEMPLOYMENT— MAGNIFIED SCALE 1939 1944 1946 MONTHLY SOURCE : DEPARTMENT 1947 1948 AVERAGE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC OF COMMERCE. Period 1939 monthly average 1944 monthly average___ 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average___ 1948: June . July August-September October Novem ber December 1949* January Februarv March April May _ __ _ June _ Julv [Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over] Civilian employment 1 Total labor force, including In nonIn agriarmed agricultural Total culture forces industries 55, 600 65, 890 60, 820 61, 608 62, 748 64, 740 65,135 64,511 63, 578 63, 166 63, 138 62, 828 61, 546 61, 896 62, 305 62, 327 63, 452 64, 866 65, 278 45, 750 53, 960 55, 250 58, 027 59, 378 61,296 61,615 61, 245 60, 312 60, 134 59, 893 59, 434 57, 414 57, 168 57, 647 57, 819 58, 694 59, 619 59, 720 36, 140 45, 010 46, 930 49, 761 51, 405 51,899 52, 452 52, 801 51, 590 51,506 51, 932 52, 059 50, 651 50, 174 50, 254 49, 999 49, 720 49, 924 50. 073 9,610 8,950 8, 320 8, 266 7,973 9,396 9, 163 8,444 8,723 8,627 7,961 7,375 6,763 6, 993 7,393 7,820 8,974 9, 696 9,647 Armed forces 370 11, 260 3,300 1,440 1,307 1,261 1,293 1,325 1,366 1,391 1,414 1,453 1,468 1, 508 1,491 1,492 1,469 1,468 1,463 Unemployment 9,480 670 2,270 2, 142 2,064 2, 184 2,227 1,941 1,899 1,642 1,831 1,941 2,664 3, 221 3, 167 3,016 3,289 3, 778 4,095 1 Includes part-time workers and those who had jobs but were not at work for such reasons as vacation, illness, bad weather, temporary lay-off, and industrial disputes. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. ADVISERS I 0 EMPLOYMENT IN BUSINESS AND GOVERNMENT After eight months of declines, employment in nondurable manufacturing increased about 50,000 in June. Construction employment continued to rise, but less than during the same period a year ago. MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS 12 12 TRANSPORTATION AND PUBLIC UTILITIES 1939 SOURCE: I94Q |94| 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Department of Labor [Thousands of wage and salary workers l] Durable manufacturing Period 1939 1943 1946 1947 1948 monthly monthly monthly monthly monthly average. _ average average average average 1948: Mav June July August September October November December.. 1949: Januarv Februarv March2 April 2 _ „ _ May June 2 , _ __ „__ __ _ _ « _ _ _ __ _ __ _ _ Nondurable manufacturing 4,357 10, 297 7, 180 8,055 8,214 5, 720 7,084 7, 335 7, 846 8,063 8, 114 8, 122 8, 165 8, 188 8,294 8,318 8,303 8,222 7, 778 7, 993 8,007 8,253 8, 403 8, 279 8, 158 8,061 8,005 7,898 7,807 7,656 7,451 7,430 7,885 7, 879 7,818 7,676 7, 579 7,631 Trade Transportation and Finance and Government (Federal, public service State, local) utilities Contract construction Mining 4, 610 5, 187 6 016 6,278 6, 400 3, 987 6,049 5 607 5, 449 5, 658 2, 912 3, 619 4,023 4, 060 4,065 1, 150 1, 567 1, 661 1,921 2,060 845 917 852 911 925 617 670 646 660 733 889 034 381 6, 454 6, 389 6, 399 6,383 6, 379 6, 364 6, 364 6, 346 5, 624 .5, 607 5, 604 5, 650 5, 801 .5, 789 5, 714 5, 994 4,042 4, 105 4, 136 4, 139 4,092 4, 091 4,066 4,066 2, 052 2, 173 2,219 2, 253 2,239 2, 206 2, 162 2,079 935 950 922 952 948 941 938 939 9 625 9, 513 9 525 9,683 9 535 9, 520 6, 265 6,272 6, 314 6, 362 6, 405 6,394 .5, 5, 5, .5, 5, 5, 3,978 3, 956 3, 912 3,929 3, 952 3,984 1, 906 1,820 1, 841 1,941 2,016 2,081 925 922 914 919 908 913 6, 705 7, 322 8 820 9, 450 9, 746 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 10, 10, 761 759 762 773 820 783 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay duringjuhe pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 6) which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. Digitizedwhich for 2FRASER Preliminary estimate. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Srmtv».ADfiimrt.mfint Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis nf Labor. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS Average weekly hours of work in manufacturing rose in May and again in June, according to preliminary data. Most nonmanufacturing industries reported little change in May. HOUF S PER WEEK HOURS PER WEEK ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES RETAIL TRADE 50 50 45 45 40 /\ J ^**^-W^—«- — 35 30 25 25 . 0 40 42 44 46 h i i i i 48 -^ 35 30 "777777777 _-.__X^\_ -^ 40 •^^ i Mii! i i i i i!M i i i 1947 1948 0 1949 __ 1 1 40 1 1 42 _1 1 44 1 1 46 BITUMINOUS COAL MINING 1 48 - ______ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1947 TrrrrTTThTTTh , , , , 1948 1949 BUILDING CONSTRUCTION 50 50 . 45 45 /X. / ^ J 40 35 lA \l ! 30 25 0 r^ fc 3 40 yw i i i i i i i i i 40 42 44 46 1 1 1 M 48 1 1 1 1 1 1 25 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 II 1947 s~ V ^ —v/j^/- 30 , ' y /^~ 35 1948 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 11 1949 ,,,, 40 42 1 1 11< 1 11 1 1 11 11< 11 1 11 1 11 44 46 48 1947 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. LllLl 1948 All manufacturing industries Period 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1944 monthly average . 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average _ _ 1948' M a y _ __ June July August September October November December 1949' January February __ March2 April 2 May June 2 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 8 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ' COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Hours per week, selected industries] 1 2 3 1 1949 - „ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ -__ Retail trade 37. 7 40. 6 45. 2 43. 4 40. 4 40. 3 40. 1 39. 9 40. 2 39. 8 40. 1 39. 8 40. 0 39. 8 40. 0 39. 5 39. 3 39. 0 38. 3 38. 5 38. 9 Data prior to 1948 not exactly comparable with later data. Preliminary estimate. Based on pay period during coal stoppage. Source: Department of Labor. 43. 0 42. 5 40. 3 40. 3 40. 5 40. 2 40. 1 39. 9 40. 3 40. 8 41. 0 40. 2 39. 7 39. 5 40. 2 40. 0 40. 0 39. 9 40. 1 40. 1 Bituminous coal mining 27. 1 31. 1 43.4 42. 3 41.6 40. 6 38.0 40.3 39.9 3 34.2 39.4 37.9 38. 6 37. 1 38. 5 39. 3 38.0 36. 1 36.4 37. 2 Building construction 1 32.6 34.8 39.6 39.0 38. 1 37. 6 37.3 37.0 37. 9 37.8 37.8 37.6 37.3 36. 4 37.8 37.0 36. 5 36. 3 37.4 37.4 WORK STOPPAGES The week of "stabilizing inactivity" in coal mining was an important factor in the increase in mandays of idleness caused by work stoppages in June. MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE 15 15 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 194? 1948 M A M J J A S O 1949 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of LABOR. [Thousands] Number of stoppages Pferiod 1939 1941 i 1942 1943 _ _j _ 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 _ _ . 1948: May _ • June ' Julv Au§usti_ Sejl temfeer October November December 1949: Jaiiiiarv *_l _ ... February March l April i Mav * June 1 1 Beginning iii period 2,613 4,288 2,968 3,752 4,956 4,750 4,985 3, 693 3, 419 339 349 394 355 299 256 216 144 225 225 275 400 450 375 Preliminary estimate. Source: Department of Labor, In effect during month 553 565 614 603 553 468 388 283 400 350 400 500 600 550 Workers involved in stoppages Beginning * in period 1, 171 2.363 ' 840 1,981 2, 116 3,467 4,600 2, 170 1, 960 168 169 218 143 158 110 111 40 70 80 fiOO 175 250 575 In effect during month 344 243 307 232 267 194 189 93 110 120 540 225 320 660 Man-days idle during period Monthly average 1, 484 1,921 349 1,125 727 3,169 9,667 2,883 2,842 4, 080 2,220 2, 670 2, 100 2, 540 2, 060 1,910 713 800 650 3, 600 1, 800 3,200 4,600 Percent of estimated working time 0. 28 .32 .05 . 15 .09 .47 1.43 .41 .37 .57 .28 .36 .26 .33 .27 .26 .09 . 11 . 10 .46 .25 .45 .61 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION The industrial production index dropped 5 points in June for the 4th consecutive month and still further in July, according to preliminary estimates. Part of the July decline was due to the spreading practice of plantwide vacations, especially in nondurables. The seasonal adjustment factor has not been revised to take account of this. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE Points in Total Index 250 - ?50 200 ?00 150 150 100 - MANUFACTURES D U R A B L E GOODS& 50 1948 1949 SOURCE:BOARD OF G O V E R N O R S OF THE F E D E R A L RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC [1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted] Points in total index, 1935-39 average for total=100 Indexes, 1935-39=100 Period 1935-39 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average _ _ _ 1948 monthly average 1948: June_ . Julv August September _ October November December 1949: January Februarv MarchApril 1 May June l July ! Manufactures Total industrial Nondura- Minerals production Total Durable ble goods goods 100 239 203 170 187 192 192 186 191 192 195 195 192 191 189 184 179 174 169 162 100 258 214 177 194 198 198 192 197 199 202 201 199 198 196 193 184 179 175 168 ' 100 360 274 192 220 225 222 219 223 225 231 229 231 227 226 223 212 201 194 185 100 176 166 165 172 177 179 169 177 178 179 178 173 175 173 168 162 161 161 154 100 132 137 134 149 155 159 153 159 156 158 161 156 149 149 136 148 145 134 125 Manufactures Durable goods 38 136 104 73 83 85 84 83 84 85 87 87 87 86 86 84 81 76 74 70 Nondura- Minerals ble goods 47 83 78 77 81 83 84 79 82 83 84 83 81 82 81 79 76 75 75 72 15 20 21 21 23 24 24 23 24 24 24 25 24 23 23 21 23 22 20 19 1 Preliminary estimate. Part of the July decline, especially in nondurables was due to the spreading practice of plant-wide vacations. The seasonal adjustment factor has not been revised to take account of this. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 10 ADVISERS PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE MANUFACTURES Production of ferrous and nonferrous metals continued their steep decline in June. Output of most machinery industries was curtailed futher. Production of lumber and p r o d u c t s was maintained at about the same level that has prevailed since the first of the year. PERCENT OF 1935-39 A V E R A G E PERCENT OF 1935-39 A V E R A G E LUMBER AND IRON AND STEEL 250 SEASONALLY MONTHLY AVERAGE 250 ADJUSTED 200 PRODUCTS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 200 100 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1947 40 42 44- 46 48 1948 40 42 44 46 48 1949 MACHINERY 350 1947 NONFERROUS METALS AND PRODUCTS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SEASONALLY MONTHLY AVERAGE ADJUSTED 300 200 \XI 150 100 i i i t i i i i i i I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 h i i 1 1 I 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 i 40 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 40 42 44 46 48 1949 1947 1948 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. 1949 C O U N C I L OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted] Iron and steel Period 1935—39 monthly average 1943 monthly average. 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948: May June July August September October November December 1949* January February MarchApril1 . May June *__ 1 __ _ _ _ __ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _. _ _ Nonferrous metals and products Lumber and products Machinery 100 208 183 150 195 208 100 129 109 131 143 145 100 443 343 240 276 277 100 267 204 157 187 193 208 208 201 207 214 221 224 223 142 140 142 148 143 147 145 143 273 277 269 271 273 277 276 277 196 194 185 186 192 192 187 184 228 232 233 219 204 177 129 123 129 126 126 124 268 262 252 240 232 226 183 186 184 167 145 135 Preliminary estimate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE MANUFACTURES Production of textiles increased somewhat in June from the low point reached in May. Food processing rose slightly. Activity at petroleum refineries and chemical plants declined. PERCE MT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS 300 300 200 200 1 00 0 j— "^^ 42 44 46 ~v 100 t i i i i i i i j, 40 '—v-. MM! I M M 11 M M 48 1947 MANUFACTURED 1948 INN 0 y "^ i i i i i i i i i 40 1949 v _^-—i—""^ A/ 42 44 46 1947 CHEMICAL FOOD PRODUCTS M M I 1 1 1 M 1 I I 1 1 1 1 II 1 I I 48 MONTHLY PRODUCTS s MONTHLY A AVERAGE f\ AVERAGE 300 300 *^~**» ~" ^ * • • • • •• — ** «*• 1 40 1 i 42 "^ " / 100 ^ | • / 200 200 0 1949 400 400 1 00 1 1 M I 1 11 1 1 1 1948 1 1 44 I 1 46 1 ..,,. (HIM 48 M 1 1 1 1 1 M 1947 M M 1 M 1948 1 M 1 1 1 1949 0 J 1 40 1 1 42 1 1 44 I I I 46 48 1 M 1 11 11 M 1 1947 1 1 1M 11 M 1 i 1 II i 1 1 II 1 U 1948 1949 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted] Textiles and products Period 1935-39 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948: May June July_. _ August- _ September October _ _ _ _ _ _ November December 1949: January February March April May 11 June _ _. _ i. . .. ._ __ _ _ 12 Manufactured food products Chemical products 100 153 146 162 163 169 100 185 235 173 193 218 100 145 151 150 157 159 100 384 284 236 251 254 177 174 154 166 168 167 164 156 220 220 217 221 207 217 227 231 159 163 160 156 163 161 159 158 249 256 251 259 257 255 257 257 160 157 142 129 123 126 228 221 213 209 207 199 160 162 162 162 162 164 257 250 245 237 234 231 1 Preliminary estimate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Petroleum and coal products WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORS Steel production dropped further during the early part of July and then made some recovery. Electric power continued above rates of a year ago. Bituminous coal mining reflected the shortened work week. Output of cars and trucks reached an all time weekly peak during the last of July. MILLIONS OF TONS BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS 3 STEEL ELECTRIC POWER 1949 1949. "1947 /1947 I ! M l J J ' J A I S O I N D MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS J F M A M J J A S O N B THOUSANDS 3.0 A SOURCES: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS. Steel (thousands of net tons) Period Weekly average: 1947 1948 Week ended: 1948: July 3 10 17 24 31 Aug. 7 14__ 1949: July 2 9 16 23 30 Au°" 6 13 _ __ _ _-_ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ __ _ Bituminous Electric power, coal by utilities (thousands of (millions of kilowatt-hours) short tons) l S 0 N COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Cars and trucks (number) 1,637 1, 700 4, 821 5, 300 2,008 1,906 90, 860 100, 670 1,716 1, 628 1, 637 1, 678 1,678 1, 697 1, 710 5, 166 4,760 5, 197 5,342 5, 352 5, 319 5,318 613 1,968 2,046 2, 056 2,094 2,029 2,094 108, 052 93, 691 115,794 113, 275 111,890 107, 219 107, 174 1, 473 1, 128 1, 434 1,444 1, 502 1, 499 1, 517 5,410 4, 982 5,342 5,462 5,518 218 945 1, 107 1, 166 1,227 138, 111, 149, 153, 135, 802 793 380 090 373 1 Daily average for week. Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, and Ward's Automotive Reports. D NEW CONSTRUCTION Total new construction in July increased more than 9 !/2 percent over June. Private construction rose somewhat more and public somewhat less than seasonally. MILLIONS OF DOLLARS M I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS 2,000 2,000 1,500 1,500 r- 1,000 1 1 i 1,000 i ii! 1939 J 1942 1944 1946 1947 1948 *INCLUDES PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL F M A M 1948 J J A S O N 1949 CONSTRUCTION SOURCES: D E P A R T M E N T O F C O M M E R C E A N D D E P A R T M E N T O F L A B O R [Millions of dollars] Private construction Total new construction Period 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthlv average 1948 monthly average 1948- May June July August September October November December 1949: January February March _ April May 2 - . June 2 _ Julv 14 1 2 _ _ _ _ __ _ 526 1, 118 345 871 1, 194 1,565 1,572 1,754 1,874 1,934 1, 901 1,814 1, 646 1,447 1,293 1, 172 1,267 1, 378 1,585 1, 745 1,913 Total private Residential (nonfarm) 317 251 152 688 932 1, 214 1, 222 1, 348 1,423 1,454 1,427 1, 355 1, 256 1, 129 1,002 905 951 997 1, 117 1,239 1,371 Includes public residential construction, Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor. 176 110 45 265 438 602 625 682 707 720 707 670 615 547 475 400 420 445 530 600 700 Other 141 141 107 422 493 612 597 666 716 734 720 685 641 582 527 505 531 552 587 639 671 Federal, State, and local i 208 867 193 184 262 351 350 406 451 480 474 459 390 318 291 267 316 381 468 506 542 D NEW HOUSING STARTS June starts at 100,000 exceeded the figure for the preceding year. The indications are .that the July figure will at least equal and may again exceed that for last year. THOUSANDS OF UNITS 125 THOUSANDS OF UNITS 125 NEW NONFARM DWELLING UNITS 50 25 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. New nonfarm units started Month 1947 January February March April _ _ j-v-idj Mav June _July August September October November December _ - _ _ _ _ - Total Monthly average 1 - -- Preliminary estimate. Source: Department of Labor. - 1948 39, 300 42, 800 56, 000 67, 100 72, 900 77, 200 81, 100 86, 300 93, 800 94, 000 79, 700 58, 800 53, 500 50, 100 76, 400 99, 500 100, 300 97, 800 95, 000 86, 600 82, 200 73, 400 63, 600 52, 900 849, 000 931, 300 70, 750 77, 600 1949 50, 000 50, 400 69, 400 1 86, 000 1 95, 000 1 100, 000 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Estimated nonagricultural business expenditures for plant and equipment in 2nd quarter of 1949 showed, for the first time in the postwar period, no gain over the corresponding quarter of the previous year. Anticipated expenditures in 3rd quarter of this year run lower, with electric and gas utilities the only field to show a continued gain. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 25 ANN UAL TOTALS 20 15 TRANSPORTATION AND ELECTRIC AND GAS ^UTILITIES 10 10 1939 * 1945 1941 NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VA ft IAT I ON. SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE C O M M I S S I O N AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC flOVTSERS I Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal] Period Total * Manufacturing Mining Transportation Railroad Other Electric and Commercial miscelgas utilities and laneous 2 1939 1,850 280 480 280 380 1,930 5,200 1941. 2 S 490 710 560 340 680 8, 190 3,400 1945 1,480 320 630 550 440 3,210 6,630 1947. .._ _ ._ 4, 430 1,900 910 800 7,460 690 16, 180 5,390 1948 700 2,680 1,320 800 8,340 19, 230 1947: First quarter 3,600 1,320 720 600 12, 640 640 5,800 Second quarter 4, 120 1,800 920 640 880 15, 760 7,400 Third quarter 4,640 2,000 800 920 7,480 720 16, 560 Fourth quarter 2,480 5,360 760 1,200 840 9, 160 19, 760 1948: First quarter 4, 960 2,000 720 1,080 720 16, 680 7,200 Second quarter 2,560 5,360 1, 240 760 800 ] 9, 280 8,560 Third quarter _. 5,440 2, 760 1,320 8,360 19, 320 680 800 Fourth quarter 5,760 3,400 680 1,640 9,280 880 21, 640 1949: First quarter _3 2,720 5,040 520 760 1, 440 7,400 17, 840 5,200 3,240 560 Second quarter4 800 1, 640 7, 840 19, 280 Third quarter _ _ 3. 320 5, 120 680 1, 240 760 7,360 18, 520 1 Excludes agriculture. 2 Commercial and miscellaneous include trade, service, finance, and communication. 3 Preliminary estimates of actual expenditures. 4 Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business. NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other data. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000. Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted). 16 NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES Total proceeds from new corporate security issues more than doubled in the 2nd quarter reflecting a rise in both fixed and working capital financing. BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3. O 3.0 QUARTERLY A V E R A G E — 2.0 H .5 1939 1943 1946 1947 1948 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISER SOURCE: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION. [Millions of dollars] Proposed uses of net proceeds Estimated net proceeds Period New money Total 1939 1943 1945 1946 1947 1948 quarterly average - quarterly average quarterly average _ quarterly average quarterly average quarterly average 1947: Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948: First quarter Second quarterThird quarter Fourth quarter _ . 1949: First quarter,. „ Second quarter 2 _ 1 2 _ _ __ _ __ Plant and equipment Working capital Retirement of debt and stock l 529 287 1,475 1,689 1,617 1,604 81 77 270 820 1, 148 1, 392 43 35 159 529 852 1,035 39 42 111 291 296 357 448 210 1,206 869 469 212 1, 374 2, 311 884 2,000 692 1,654 192 347 490 310 1, 614 1,663 1, 267 1, 873 1,400 1,353 1,045 1, 767 845 1,080 764 1,451 555 274 281 316 214 309 221 105 1,056 2,311 850 1, 968 699 1,615 152 353 206 343 Includes small amount for other purposes. Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. INVENTORIES AND SALES Divergent trends marked inventories and sales in June. Manufacturing and wholesale inventories dropped while sales rose moderately, on the other hand both retail sales and inventories advanced. BILL IONS OF DOLLARS B I L L O N S OF DOLLARS WHOLESALE RETAIL 20 20 INVEr^ TC)RIES V /* 1 0 X ^' \pt*^....^"'' 0 I 1 ! 40 42 1 1 ! 44 >L _5 V S*-? ly-**^ ."* 1 0 ^p-*S2* \ ,x ^i ... '"'^y\i \L *" "^ *• — •• - •" :7~ INVEP4T' )RIES 1 1 1 46 i 1i I i 1 l l i I l 48 , , M 1 1 , 1 1 II 1947 1948 0 1949 I i 1 i 1 1 1 1 I 40 BILL IONS OF DOLLARS 42 44 46 1 1 1 ! 1 I1 ( 1 1 1 1 I1 1 1 11 I I 1 1 1 l If 1 1 1 1 ! ! i 1947 1948 1949 48 PERCE NT OF 1935-1939 A V E R A G E MANUFACTURING DEPARTMENT STORES 40 400 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONTHLY A V E R A G E INVEf JT DRIES Ul 30 \L :s, 300 1 s: 1 0 0 f'u s/ / / 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 \ 40 42 44 46 ....V. r / /IISIVEr' TC)RIES 200 J/J W, 1 00 i l i ii 1 l 1 i ti 48 II ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1947 1948 0 Inventories 3 1 1 1 1 42 l 44 1 46 Sales 4 1 1 48 1 i 1 i 1 i 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 | 1 | | | 1948 1947 Inventories 3 Manufacturing * Sales 4 Inventories 3 1 2 . _ _ 2,505 3, 650 4,330 4,777 6, 138 7, 304 7,867 7,766 7,796 8, 161 8,286 8,376 8,242 8, 196 7, 163 6,802 7,489 6, 962 7,077 7, 086 1949 Sales Department stores 4 5,502 7,620 7,350 7, 502 11, 049 12, 953 14, 556 14, 065 14, 080 14, 145 14, 531 14, 576 14, 779 14, 556 14, 092 13,939 14, 237 14, 057 13, 766 13, 806 3,504 4, 624 5,310 6,387 8,399 9, 860 10, 784 10, 862 10, 857 10, 893 10, 968 10, 894 10, 771 11,062 10, 615 10, 588 10, 620 10, 767 10, 726 10, 737 Inventories Sales 1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted 6 Millions of dollars 3,200 4, 151 3,577 4,216 5,823 7, 545 8,315 7,953 7,930 8, 100 8,243 8,400 8, 507 8,315 8,527 8,567 8,445 8, 186 7,912 7, 827 l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 R E S E R V E SYSTEM Retail 2 Wholesale * Period i 40 1949 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL 1939 1941 __ _ ___ 1943 1945 __ 1946 1947 _ _ 1948 1948: June _ July August September October . November December . 1949" January Febrn ary March6 _ A.pril 6 May . _ June 6 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ \^> .«** *•. / •" J / A •^v^L ES v ^ _e^ Wi/ \ .»••• >" 20 _ </' 11, 516 17, 024 19, 897 17, 924 23, 435 28, 020 31, 713 29, 727 30, 236 30, 429 30, 710 30, 848 31, 225 31, 713 32, 062 32, 070 31, 793 31, 266 30, 902 30, 400 5, 112 8, 172 12, 603 12, 371 12, 020 15, 671 17, 587 17, 871 16, 403 18, 169 18, 781 18, 807 17,980 18, 130 16, 691 16, 424 18, 107 16, 763 16, 303 16, 500 102 131 155 166 213 255 291 285 285 285 290 290 296 291 278 276 283 280 273 265 106 133 168 207 264 286 302 308 311 309 309 308 289 305 295 281 277 294 292 284 5 Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for Book value, end of period. Monthly average for year and total month and retail book value of inventories, end of period. 6 Preliminary estimate. for month. Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Not adjusted for seasonal variation. Adjusted for seasonal variation. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 18 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3 4 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AMD IMPORTS The export surplus increased in June as exports rose 2/2 percent and imports dropped at about the same rate. MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,600 1600 MONTHLY AVERAGES - 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 - 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 - 600 400 400 200 - 200 1936-38 1943 1946 1947 1948 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D * RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS, AND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED AREAS. ** RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES' DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY [Millions of dollars] Period Exports 1 Imports * Excess of exports 1936-38 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 247 1, 080 877 849 1,278 1, 051 207 282 346 410 478 594 40 798 531 439 801 457 1948: May June July August September October November December 1, 102 1, 015 1,019 990 926 1,021 820 1, 285 554 625 563 606 560 600 554 720 548 390 456 384 366 421 266 565 1949: January February March April May June I, 094 1, 032 1, 159 1, 148 1,077 1, 104 590 568 632 534 539 526 504 464 527 614 538 578 1 1 Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas. Recorded general merchandise imports. Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy. NATIONAL INCOME The revised series on national income shows a $12.6 billion^drop, or 5 percent, from the peak in 4th quarter 1948 to 2nd quarter 1949. Corporate profits, including the inventory valuation adjustment, accounted for one-half of the decline while the compensation of employees accounted forjabout one-fourth. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 ANNUAL TOTALS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED TOTAL NATIONAL INCOME CORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION : ADJUSTMENT-' 200 (COMPENSATION OF; iEMPLOYEES; i i 1939 1944 1947 1948 1949 3 2 4 3 4 1948 1947 1949 1950 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (except as noted). [Billions of dollars] Total national income Period 1939 1944 1946. 1947 1948 _ . _ 72. 5 183. 8 179. 6 201.7 226. 2 _ > _ _ _ _ _ __ . Compensation of employees 47.8 121. 2 117.0 127. 6 140.3 Proprietors' and rental Net interest income 14. 7 35. 5 41. 3 45. 1 49. 5 Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment Profits before taxes Total 5.8 24. 0 18. 3 25. 6 32. 6 4. 2 3. 1 3.0 3.4 3.8 Inventory valuation adjustment 6.5 24. 3 23.6 31. 6 34. 8 -0. 7 -.3 -5.3 -6. 0 -2.2 33.0 35.0 36. 6 34. 5 — 4. 5 -2.0 -3. 3 — 1. 2 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949: First quarter 1 2 Second quarter .. 2 215. 1 224. 9 230.4 234. 3 135. 1 137. 7 143. 3 144. 9 48. 0 50. 4 49. 9 49. 7 3. 6 3. 7 3. 9 4. 1 225. 3 222.2 142. 5 141.7 47. 8 46.7 4. 2 4. 3 28. 5 33. 0 33. 3 35. 7 2 30. 8 29.5 2 28. 4 24.8 2 +2.3 + 4.7 1 2 Preliminary estimates. Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Figures for 1944-48 are revised and do not agree with data previously published in the Indicators. July 1949, for details of the revisions. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). 20 See Survey of Current Business, CORPORATE PROFITS Corporate profits reached their peak rate in 3rd quarter of 1948, and have declined steadily since then, according to revised estimates. In 2nd quarter of 1949, they were $24.8 billion (annual rate), or $11.8 billion below the peak. Change in replacement costs of inventories was equivalent to two-thirds of the drop. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 4 O ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ':•:'•:DIVIDEND PAYMENTS xXyx'-vX: y NO JSTR_IBU TE D ...PR Of ITS jl||l!ji jj SOURCE; D E P A R T M E N T OF C O M M E R C E (EXCEPT AS NOTED) COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Corporate profits before taxes Period 1929 1939 1944 1946 1947 1948 _ . . _ _ . . __ _-_ Corporate tax liability 9.8 6.5 24. 3 23.6 31.6 34.8 1.4 1.5 13. 5 9.6 12. 5 13. 6 Corporate profits after taxes Total 8.4 5.0 10. 8 13.9 19. 1 21.2 Dividend payments 5.8 3.8 4. 7 5.8 7.0 7.9 Undistributed profits 2.6 1.2 6. 1 8. 1 12. 1 13.2 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1948: First quarter, Second quarter Third quarter _ Fourth quarter _ _ _. _ _ ». _ _ _ _ 1949 : First quarter l l Second quarter 33.0 35.0 36.6 34.5 12.8 13. 7 14. 4 13. 6 20.2 21.3 22.2 20.9 7. 6 7. 7 7.9 8.3 12.6 13. 6 14.3 12. 6 28. 4 24.8 11.2 9.7 17.3 15. 1 8.4 8.5 8.9 6.6 1 Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data. NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment. See p. 20 for profits before taxes and inventory valuation adjustment. Figures for 1944-48 are revised and do not agree with data previously published in the Indicators. See Survey of Current Business, July 1949, for details of the revisions. iA^^-^,1 ,-.,,11 -ns-vi- -nrt^Qcjoo-r-ilxr orlH +r\ f r k f n l a K A O Q I I S A f\f rOlinniTlff. PERSONAL INCOME According to revised estimates, personal income, between February and June, has shown little major change. In June, it Was 2 percent^belowjhe December 1948 peak level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS D O L L A R S 250 250 ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL TOTALS TOTAL 200 \ - - » \ " % r x % v v v . % ::x;::: PROPRIETORS AND RENTAL !NCOME"; JLJL ,939 1944 1947 1948 1949 I J A S O N D J 1947 F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D U F 1949 1948 ! I I I M A M J 1950 *TERMINAL LEAVE 80ND CASHING STARTED IN SEPTEMBER, 1947. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Total personal income Period 1939 1944 1946 1947 1948 _ . - 72. 6 165. 9 176. 9 193. 5 211. 9 - ._- Salaries, wages, Proprietors' and other and rental labor income income Dividends and personal interest 14. 7 35.5 41. 2 45. 1 49.5 9.2 10. 6 13.2 14. 8 16.2 45. 7 116.2 111.0 122.0 135. 1 Transfer payments 3.0 3.6 11.4 11.7 11. 1 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted Mav_ _ June Julv August September. __ _ October _ _ _ November December 1949: January February March. _ April _ May _ June -L 1948: 1 22 . _ - _ _ _ _ __ 209. 3 213. 4 214. 5 215.4 216. 3 216. 3 216. 6 217.0 215. 7 212. 9 212.4 212. 5 212. 9 213. 5 132. 9 134. 5 136. 6 138.5 139.7 140. 1 139. 5 139. 1 138. 6 137. 1 135.6 136.8 136. 9 136.7 49.3 51. 8 50.8 49. 5 49.4 49.0 49.8 50. 3 49. 0 47. 2 47. 3 46. 3 46.7 47.2 15.9 15. 9 16.0 16. 3 16. 5 16. 8 16.9 16.9 17.0 17. 1 17. 1 17.2 17.3 17.5 11.2 11.2 11. 1 11. 1 10.7 10.4 10.4 10.7 11. 1 11.5 12.4 12.2 12. 0 12. 1 Data became available after chart was prepared. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Figures for 1944-48 are revised and do not agree with data previously published in the Indicators. See Survey of Current Business, July 1949, for details of the revisions. Source: Department of Commerce. CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING According to revised estimates, disposable income dropped moderately from 1st to 2nd quarter while expenditures rose slightly, thus reducing the rate of saving by $1 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 200 150 1939 1940 I94« 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED). C O U N C I L OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S [Billions of dollars] Disposable personal income * Period 1939 1940 1941_ 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 _ 70.2 75.7 92.0 116.2 131. 6 147.0 151. 1 158. 1 172. 0 190.8 Less: Personal consumption expenditures Equals: Personal saving 67.5 72. 1 82.3 90.8 101. 6 111. 6 123. 1 147.8 166. 9 178.8 2.7 3. 7 9.8 25.4 30.0 35.4 28.0 10. 3 5. 1 12. 0 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949: First quarter 2 Second quarter _ _ 181.9 189.6 195.2 196.2 195.0 194.2 175.2 178. 7 180. 3 180. 9 177.9 178. 2 6. 7 10. 8 15.0 15. 3 17. 1 16.0 1 2 Income less taxes. Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Figures for 1942-48 are revised and do not agree with data previously published in the Indicators. Survey of Current Business, July 1949, for details of the revisions. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis See PER CAPITA INCOME* Per capita disposable income fell about 1 percent from 1st to 2nd quarter of 1949, as measured in current dollars, or in terms of real purchasing power. DOLLARS 1,600 ANNUAL R A T E S , S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D 1,200 I 1939 1940 1941 1942 »943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 3 4 1947 1 I 2 I 3 _L 4 I 1948 S O U R C E : D E P A R T M E N T O F C O M M E R C E A N D D E P A R T M E N T O F L A B O R (EXCEPT A S NOTED), Period 1939 . __ 1940 1941. 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 ... __ I 2*** I 3 4 1949 Per capita disposable personal income * Current 1948 dollars * dollars 536 923 574 981 1, 125 691 1,262 867 1,314 _.. 970 1,405 1,065 1,082 1,389 1,342 1, 119 1,282 1, 194 1,302 1,302 Consumers' price index1 1948=100 58. 1 58.5 61. 4 68.7 73.8 75.8 77.9 83.4 93. 1 100.0 Not adjusted for seasonal variation 98. 0 99.6 101.8 100. 7 99.2 99.0 1,273 1948: First quarter _ 1,248 1,296 1,301 Second quarter _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ ___ Third quarter 1, 306 1, 329 Fourth quarter. _ _ _ 1,329 1,320 1949: First quarter.. _4 1,316 1,327 Second Quarter 1, 305 1,318 1 Income less taxes. 2 Current dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base 1948=100. 3 The consumers' price index has been roughly adjusted to take account of the understatement from December 1941-February 1947. This adjustment is in line with the report of the Mitchell Committee. The unadjusted index will be found on page 2. 4 Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data. NOTE.—Figures for 1942-48 are revised and do not agree with data previously published in the Indicators. See Survey of Current Business, July 1949, for details of the provisions. Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor (except as noted). 24 2 1950 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISER: Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1 AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS Average hourly earnings in manufacturing increased in June, the first increase this year, according to preliminary data. DOLLARS PER HOUR DOLLARS PER HOUR. RETAIL TRADE ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES 2.00 ,50 1948 DOLLARS'" nl I I I I I I I I Fl JTiTi i I 1 1 1 i i I i i iTTTTi i i i I i i T i ITTTiTTl 40 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 1949 BUILDING CONSTRUCTION BITUMINOUS COAL MINING 40 42 44 46 * 1947 40 42 44 46 48 40 42 44 46 48 1948 1949 cu< COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S SOUR [Selected industries] Manufacturing Bituminous coal mining Retail trade Period Current dollars 1939 1941 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 monthly average... monthly average _ monthly average monthly average „_ _ _ » monthly average monthly average monthly average 1948: May June July August _ September October November ...... December ._ pm 1949; January February _ _ _ March3 April 3 _ May 3 _ June _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1948 dollars * Current dollars 1948 dollars 2 Current dollars 1948 dollars 2 Building construction * Current dollars 1948 dollars 3 0.633 .729 1.019 1.023 1. 084 1. 221 1.327 1.090 1. 187 1.381 1.313 1.230 1.311 1.327 0. 536 ,568 ,724 .773 .878 .991 1.067 0.923 ,925 .981 .992 1.053 1.064 1.067 0. 886 .993 1. 186 1. 240 .401 . 633 . 899 1. 525' 1. 617 1. 607 1. 592 1. 680 1.754 1. 899^ 0. 932 1.010 1.319 1.379 1.478 1.681 1.848 1. 604 1.645 1.787 1.770 1.772 1.806 1.848 1.301 1.316 1.332 1.349 1.362 1.366 1.372 1.376 1.306 1. 312 1.312 1.324 1.337 1.347 1.364 1.375 1.064 1.070 1.077 1.080 1.086 1.080 1. 084 1.072 1.068 1.067 1.061 1.060 1.066 1.065 1.078 1.071 .841 .850 .936 .967 .970 .959 . 951 .960 1.848 1. 844 1.907 1. 930 1.933 1. 932 1. 939 1.958 1.815 1.836 1.862 1.874 1.895 1.892 1.906 1.915 1.822 1.830 1.834 1.839 1.860 1.866 1.895 1.913 1. 380 1.377 1.374 1.374 1. 373 1.380 1. 383 1.395 1. 388 1.386 1. 390 1.393 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 949 1. 943 1.941 1.932 1.947 1.953 1. 969 1.961 1.950 1. 971 1.918 1.930 1.933 1.934 1. 931 1.922 1.955 1.953 1.952 1.954= 110 104 102 106 114 112 119 113 116 128 1 Data prior to 1948 not exactly comparable with later data. 2 Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1948= 100. 3 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Preliminary estimate. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis See note 3 to table on page 24. AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS Weekly earnings in most major industries increased in May. Manufacturing industries, reflecting a longer work week, rose further in June, but were still below the December 1948 peak. DOLLARS PER W E E K D O L L A R S PER W E E K RETAIL T R A D E 1948 D 01_ L A R S * * / \^-^ ^— - jf^~* ^"" "•» ^X^ -—*^*^CURREN-r c)OLLARS i i i 1 1 i i 1 j 1947 40 42 44 46 48 1948 1 1 ' ! 1 i 1 I I ,11 40 42 44 46 48 40 42 44 46 48 1947 ! 1 I 1 1 1 1 1948 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1949 BITUMINOUS COAL MINING DOLLARS* C.^fv DOLLARS 40 42 44 46 48 t SEE N TE ° S O U R C E : DEPARTMENT OF L A B O R . °N TA8Lt: - [Selected industries] Manufacturing Period Current dollars 1948 dollars 2 Retail trade Current dollars 1948 dollars 2 Bituminous coal mining Current dollars 23. 88 36.44 41.07 21. 17 23. 86 1939 monthly average 30.86 35.73 21. 94 48. 18 29.58 1941 monthly average _ 51.27 36. 02 62.44 26.58 46.08 1944 monthly average 52. 25 36. 34 56.98 44.39 28. 31 1945 monthly average 58.03 39. 03 52.45 43.74 32.55 1946 monthly average 66.86 39.39 52. 90 36. 67 49. 25 1947 monthly average 72.57 39. 98 39.98 53. 15 53. 15 1948 monthly average 74.08 40.00 39.84 52.07 51. 86 1948* May 73.87 40.40 52. 69 52. 85 40. 52 June . 67. 62 52. 17 40. 58 52. 95 41. 19 July 78. 10 40. 42 41. 19 54. 05 53. 04 August 75.51 39.73 54. 19 40. 48 53. 18 September 76.40 39.76 54. 65 53. 90 40. 32 October _ 73. 52 39.43 39. 67 54.23 54.56 November 75. 79 40.62 40.58 54.96 55.01 December _ _ _ _ _ _ 76.84 41.87 54.62 41. 79 54. 51 1 949 " January _ 74. 31 42. 11 41. 56 54. 12 54. 83 Februarv 68.41 41.90 41.48 54. 13 53. 59 March _ 72. 70 42. 19 52. 62 53. 10 41.81 April3 ^ 73. 70 42. 91 52. 86 53. 50 42. 40 May 3 54. 17 53. 68 June _ _ _ . _ -_- __-_ 1 Data prior to 19-48 not exactly comparable with later data. : 2 Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1948 = 100. See note 3 to table on page 24. 3 Preliminary estimates. Department of Labor. Digitized forSource: FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 26 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1948 dollars 2 41. 10 50.26 69.47 67.07 69.58 71.81 72.57 74.38 73. 65 66. 62 76. 64 74.10 75.34 73.08 75.71 76.99 75.29 69. 10 73.36 74. 59 Building construction 1 Current dollars 30.39 35. 14 52. 18 53.73 56.24 63.30 68. 85 67. 22 69.53 70.47 70.91 71.29 70.59 69.39 72.33 70.88 70.53 69.83 70.33 71.82 1948 dollars 2 52. 31 57.23 70.70 68.97 67.43 67.99 68. 85 67.49 69.32 69.43 69. 59 69.96 69.62 68. 98 72.26 71.02 71.46 70.54 70.97 72. 69 FARM INCOME Farmers' cash income increased seasonally from May to June, but represented about 10 percent less income than in June last year, after allowing for the 3 percent lower level of prices paid by farmers. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4 MONTHLY AVERAGE CURRENT DOLLARS 1939 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. Farm income (millions of current dollars) 1 Period 1939 monthly average _ __. _ 1941 monthly average. 1942 monthly average __ _ _ 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average _ 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average-1948: May June July August. __ September „ _ October, November _ December 1949: January __ February, ___ March.__ _ _ April4 ___ _ „ _ May __ _ _ June 4 _ _ _ _ _ 1 _ _ _ _ _ _ __ 724 981 I 340 1 678 1 765 1 857 2 110 2 542 2 609 2 119 2* 437 2 693 2 722 3 132 3 714 3 314 2 740 2 383 I 783 1 973 1 850 1 944 2, 118 Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments. Prices paid by farmers (incl. Farm income (millions of interest and taxes) 1948 = 1948 dollars) 3 1002 49 8 53 0 60 2 65 1 67 9 69 1 77 5 92 8 100 0 100 4 100 8 100 8 100 8 100 4 100 0 99 2 99 6 99 6 98 4 98 8 98 8 98 4 98. 0 2 Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1948=100. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ ! 5"*,™ income jn current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, and taxes, 1948=100. PrAliminarv _ estimates. J..-_-_ A __ Source: Department of Agriculture. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis A T»_.I.._. 1 454 1 851 2 226 2 578 2 599 2 687 2 723 2 739 2 609 2 111 2 418 2 672 2 700 3 120 3 714 3 341 2, 751 2 393 1 812 1 997 1 872 1, 976 2. 161 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Nondurable goods purchases continued to fall in the 2nd quarter but at a much slower rate. (mainly automobiles) and service expenditures advanced. Durable goods BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 ANNUAL TOTALS ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED i I !9?9 70UHCt- 1944 1947 1948 1949 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED). COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S [Billions of dollars] Personal consumption expenditures Period Nondurable goods Total 1939. 1944_ 1946. 1947_ 1948. 67.5 111. 6 147. 8 166. 9 178. 8 35. 3 67. 1 87. 5 96.2 102. 2 Durable goods 6.7 7. 1 16. 5 22.0 23. 5 Services 25.5 37.4 44. 5 48. 8 53. 1 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949: First quarter 1 Second quarter 1 ... 175. 2 178. 7 180. 3 180. 9 101.2 102. 4 101.8 103. 3 22. 7 23.8 24. 8 22. 9 51.3 52. 5 53. 7 54. 8 177.9 178. 2 99.9 98. 7 22. 5 23. 6 55.4 55.9 Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data. NOTE.—Detail wil] not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Figures for 1944-48 are revised and do not agree with data previously published in the Indicators. See Survey of Current Business, July 1949, for details of the revisions. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). 2ft CONSUMER CREDIT Total consumer credit increased $288 million, or 2 percent, during June. A large part of the rise was attributable to further expansion in instalment credit, especially for sales of automobiles. BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2 0 2 0 1939 1943 1946 1947 END OF YEAR 1948 1947 1948 1949 END OF MONTH SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL R E S E R V E S Y S T E M , COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S [Millions of dollars] End of period Total consumer credit outstanding Instalment credit Total Automobile sale credit Other sale credit and loans Charge accounts Other consumer credit 1 1939 1943 1946 1947 1948 7,969 5, 378 10, 191 13, 673 16, 319 4,424 2,001 4,000 6,434 8, 600 1,267 175 544 1, 151 1, 961 3, 157 1,826 3,456 5,283 6, 639 1, 544 1,498 3,054 3,612 3,854 2,001 1,879 3, 137 3,627 3,865 1948: May June July August September October November December 14, 311 14, 669 14, 723 14, 916 15, 231 15, 518 15, 739 16, 319 7,318 7,533 7,738 7,972 8, 190 8,233 8,322 8,600 1,536 1,602 1,689 1, 781 1,858 1,889 1,922 1,961 5,782 5,931 6,049 6, 191 6,332 6, 344 6,400 6,639 3,245 3,352 3, 185 3, 130 3,227 3,457 3,557 3,854 3,748 3,784 3,800 3,814 3,814 3,828 3,860 3, 865 1949: January. _ _ _ _ Februarv March. •_ _ April2 May _. „ _. _ June 2 15, 749 15, 332 15, 360 15,618 15, 853 16, 141 8,425 8, 339 8,427 8,627 8,890 9, 133 1,965 1, 996 2, 105 2,241 2,386 2,507 6,460 6,343 6,322 6,386 6,504 6,626 3,457 3, 176 3, 148 3, 258 3,249 3,282 3,867 3,817 3, 785 3,733 3, 714 3,726 1 2 Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit. Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS Bank loans, after dropping for two months, increased about $300 million in June. Banks held $200 million less in government securities and $ 200 million more in other securities. BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S 125 125 100 100 - INVESTMENT U. S . G O V E R N M E N T IN SECURITIES 75 50 25 25 1929 1939 END J 1945 F M A M J J A S O N D S 1947 OF Y E A R O N D J F M A M J * J A S O N D 1948 END OF MONTH PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE [Billions of dollars] End of period 1929 1939 1945. _ 1947 1948 . 1948: May June July August September October November December 1 949 : January February March April May June ! _ _ _ _ 1 . _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ___ _ _ __ _ _ „ _ _ _ _ _ Investments Total loans and investments Bank loans 49. 5 40. 7 124.0 116. 3 114. 3 114.6 113. 9 114.8 115. 1 113.6 114. 1 114. 2 114. 3 114. 5 113.4 112. 5 112. 5 113. 4 113. 7 36.0 17. 2 26. 1 38. 1 42.5 39.5 39. 9 40.1 40. 6 41.7 41. 6 42. 3 42. 5 42.4 42. 0 42.4 41.3 40.9 41.2 Total Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 30 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 13.5 23. 4 97.9 78.2 71.8 75.0 74.0 74.6 74.5 71. 9 72.5 71.9 71.8 72.0 71. 4 70. 1 71. 2 72.6 72. 5 U.S. Government securities 4.8 16.3 90.6 69.2 62.6 65.9 64.8 65.3 65. 1 62.5 63.3 62.8 62.6 63.0 62. 2 60. 9 62.0 63.2 63.0 Other securities 8.7 7. 1 7.3 9.0 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.2 9.1 9.2 9. 1 9. 1 9. 2 9.2 9.3 9.5 MONEY SUPPLY The continued increase in time deposits in June was offset by a drop in demand deposits, decreasing the total money supply slightly from the May level. BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY ( EXCLUDING U.S.GOV'T. DEPOSITS) I 50 TIME DEPOSITS ijADJUSTED DEMAND DEPOSITS 1J_L i-J Ll-l-J^1939 1943 1946 1947 END OF YEAR I9'!fi J F M A M J J A '347 S O N D J F M A M J J A 1948 S O N D J F M A M J J A 1949 S END OF MONTH SOURCE: BOARD CF GOVERNORS OF THt FEDfftAL RESERVE '-^31£M. rnnwpn [Billions of dollars] Total money supply End of period 1939 1943 1946 1947 1948- — 1948: May June July August September October November December 1949: January February 3 March April33 May June 3 _ _ _ _ -.. _ _ _ _ __ _ — -_ _ _ _. _ _ _ __ ___ _ _ 63.3 112.4 164. 0 170.0 169. 1 165. 1 165.7 166.0 166.7 166.9 168. 1 168. 1 169. 1 168.2 166. 3 164.2 165.5 165.7 165. 6 Currency outside banks 6. 4 18.8 26.7 26.5 26. 1 25.4 25.6 25. 5 25.6 25.7 25.7 25. 9 26. 1 25. 2 25. 1 25. 1 24.9 25.0 25. 0 Adjusted demand deposits l 29. 8 60. 8 83.3 87. 1 85. 5 82.8 82.7 83. 3 83.8 83.9 85. 1 85. 2 85. 5 85.4 83.4 81. 1 82. 4 82. 6 82. 2 Time deposits 2 27. 1 32.7 54.0 56. 4 57. 5 56. 9 57.4 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.0 57. 5 57.6 57. 8 58. 0 58. 1 58. 2 58. 4 1 Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. "Government, less cash items in process of collection. 2 Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System. a Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. O N D FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC The cosh deficit of about $2,2 billion during the 2nd quarter compares with a surplus of $1.2 billion during the same quarter of 1948. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS i6 I6 .CASH RECEIPTS CASH PAYMENTS JL 1947 1946 1948 1949 1948 1949 E X C E S S OF CASH RECEIPTS u EXCESS OF CASH 1946 1947 CA LENDAR YEARS SOURCE: BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT. [Millions of dollars] Federal cash receipts from the public 1 Calendar years Federal cash payments to the public 1 Excess of receipts ( + ) or payments (— ) Calendar year total: + 54 41, 372 41, 426 1946 + 5,695 38, 584 44, 279 1947 _ - . + 7,967 44, 920 36, 954 1948 _ Quarterly total, not adjusted for seasonal: 12, 244 12, 632 1946' First quarter + 388 9,462 12, 008 Second quarter. _ _ — 2 547 9, 702 8, 449 Third quarter + 1 252 8 671 9, 630 Fourth quarter + 959 14, 345 9, 163 1947: First quarter _ __ + 5 182 10, 628 9, 847 Second quarter — 781 10, 257 10, 220 Third quarter _ _ __ — 37 8, 536 9, 869 Fourth quarter + 1 331 15, 037 8, 637 1948' First quarter + 6 400 9, 033 10, 238 Second quarter „ _ + 1 205 8, 798 10, 085 Third quarter + 1 287 9, 560 10, 486 Fourth quarter __ — 925 13, 122 9, 931 1949: First quarter __2 _ __ + 3 191 10, 940 8,760 Second quarter — 2, 180 Payments of refunds of Government receipts are now reported as deductions from total receipts; previously, they were reported as expenditures. 2 Preliminary estimates based on incomplete data. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget. o 32 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, TJ. S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D. 0. Price 15 cents per copy; $1.75 per year; $2.25 foreign