Full text of Economic Indicators : August 1948

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80th Congress, 2d Session

Joint Committee Print

Economic Indicators




AUGUST 1948

JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio, Chairman
JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan, Vice Chairman
JOSEPH H. BALL, Minnesota
RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont
ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah
JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming
FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania
JOHN SPARKMAN, Alabama

GEORGE H. BENDER, Ohio
CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts
ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania
EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey
WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas
WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio
CHARLES O. HARDY, Stag Director
FRED E. BERQUIST, Assistant Staff Director
JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk
WILLIAM H. MOORE, Economist

To the Members of Congress:

From the time the Joint Committee on the Economic
Report was established, its members realized that one of
its basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture of
current economic trends and developments.
Fortunately, the Joint Committee finds that Economic
Indicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiled
monthly by the Council of Economic Advisers, admirably
fills this need. While this material was prepared primarily for the use of the President, the Council and other
officials in the executive offices, the Council has made it
available to the Joint Committee.
Other Members of Congress have also expressed an
interest in being able to obtain a quick picture of current
economic facts without having to go through voluminous and specialized documents. In addition,
businessmen, farm leaders, labor organizations, and representatives of the press and radio have indicated their
desire for this information. Since nothing contained




ii

in these charts and tables is of a confidential nature they
have urged that the material be made available to the
general public.
Accordingly, the Joint Committee has for the past
several months provided the Congress and the public
with a limited number of copies of Economic Indicators,
The response to these issues has indicated such widespread interest that the Committee has arranged to
release Economic Indicators each month as a committee
print until action can be taken on authorizing the publication on a more permanent basis.
Comments or suggestions with respect to possible
improvements in this presentation will always be
welcome.

Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report.

Letter o£ Transmittal
Hon. ROBERT A. TAFT, Chairman,
Joint Committee on the Economic Report,
United States Congress, Washington, D. C.

DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the
Joint Committee on the Economic Report in your plans to make Economic Indicators
available to the Congress as a whole and to the general public.
In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has
found it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts
showing current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a better
position to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the
improvement and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services.
We have realized, of course, that this material has a potential usefulness not only to
the President, the Council and the executive departments, but also to the Congress.
Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly
by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and consumer organizations with
whom we regularly consult.
We believe the Joint Committee will perform a service of real value by giving wide
circulation to this material.
Sincerely yours,




<^10£tSLsi^

Chairman.

f.

JZ^x^f^
/

Vice Chairman.
/

111

Contents
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET

Page

The Nation's Economic Budget

1

PRICES
Consumers' Prices
Wholesale Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
Stock Prices

2
3
4
5

EMPLOYMENT
Labor Force
Nonagricultural Employment:
Average Weekly Hours
Work Stoppages

6
7
8
9

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production
Production of Selected Durable Manufactures
Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures
New Construction. . .
New Housing Starts
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
New Corporate Security Issues
Inventories and Sales
Exports and Imports. .

10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

PURCHASING POWER
National Income
Corporate Profits
Personal Income
Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving
Per Capita Income
Average Hourly Earnings
Average Weekly Earnings
Farm Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Consumer Credit

.

19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28

MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
Bank Loans and Investments
Money Supply
Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public. .

Digitized
IVfor FRASER


29
30
31

Section A: THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
Consumer saving and the Government surplus increased between
1947 and first half of 1948, while the excess of business and
foreign investment declined.
EXCESS OF
EXPENDITURES (-), RECEIPTS (+)
0
+

1948, FIRST HALF (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
CONSUMERS
INCOME
/&A
EXPENDITURES

CONSUMER
SAVING

186.0

///f

174.4

BUSINESS
21.4

EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT

37.2

INTERNATIONAL
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT

I
GOVERNMENT

CASH
SURPLUS

64.0
52.0

I947f CALENDAR YEAR

(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

CONSUMERS
INCOME
'//////<
EXPENDITURES

CONSUMER
SAVING

173.6

164.8

BUSINESS

30.0

INTERNATIONAL
8>9

H

EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT

EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT

GOVERNMENT
CASH
SURPLUS

* ANNUA L RA TES, SEASONAL L Y ADJUSTED.
NOTE: THE COMPONENTS DO NOT ADD TO THE GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT BECAUSE OF CERTAIN ADJUSTMENTS.
SEE MIDYEAR ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JULY 1948, APPENDIX A.

SOURCE; SEE MIDYEAR ECONOMIC REPORT OFTHE PRESIDENT, JULY 1948, APPENDIX A.



Section B: PRICES
CONSUMERS' PRICES
Consumers1 prices continued to make new all-time highs as retail food prices increased 1.5 percent
between May 15 and June 15.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

225

225

200

200

175

175

150

150

125

125

100

100

75

. . 1 . . 1 t i I. .

i . I . . I. . I. .

. . I . . I i .1. .

Mliil.il..

i . I . . 1 , .1 . .

. i I . . I . . I. .

i , I , , L_L ILL

1939

1940

1941

1942

1943

1944

1945

nl 1 1 l i d

1947

1946

1948

*ALSO INCLUDES HOUSEFURNISHINGS, FUEL, ELECTRICITY, ICE, AND MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES, NOT SHOWN ON CHART.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

[1935-39=100]
All items l

Period
1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthlv average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: May...
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February
March
April
May.__
June




_
_
_

__

_
_

._

_

_
_

__

_

Food

Clothing

Rent

99.4
100.2
105. 2
116.5
123.6
125.5
128. 4
139.3
159. 2

95. 2
96.6
105.5
123.9
138.0
136. 1
139. 1
159.6
193.8

100.5
101.7
106.3
124.2
129. 7
138.8
145.9
160.2
185.8

104.3
104. 6
106.2
108.5
108. 0
108.2
108.3
108. 6
111.2

156.0
157. 1
158.4
160. 3
163.8
163. 8
164.9
167.0

187.6
190.5
193. 1
196.5
203.5
201.6
202.7
206.9

185.0
185. 7
184.7
185.9
187.6
189.0
190.2
191.2

109.2
109.2
110.0
111.2
113.6
114.9
115.2
115.4

168.8
167.5
166.9
169.3
170.5
171. 7

209.7
204.7
202.3
207.9
210.9
214. 1

192. 1
195. 1
196. 3
196.4
197. 5
196.9

115.9
116. 0
116.3
116.3
116.7
117.0

i Also includes housefurnishings, fuel, electricity, ice, and miscellaneous goods and services.
NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities.
Source: Department of Labor.

WHOLESALE PRICES
Wholesale prices of all commodities during the week of July 11-17 exceeded the previous all-time peak of May
1920, but have been lower since mid-July as prices of farm products weakened while prices of other than farm
products continued to creep upward.
PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE
220

PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE

220

200

200

180

I 80

160

140

OTHER THAN FARM AND FOODS
I 20

120

100

100

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1926=100]
All commodities

Week ended—

1946: Jan. 5
June 29
Sept. 28
Dec. 28..
1947: Mar. 29
June 28
Sept. 27...
Dec. 27
1948: Jan. 17
Feb. 14
Mar. 20
Apr. 17..
May 1
8
15
22
29
June 5
12
19
26
July 3
10
17
24
31
Aug. 7 1
1

_

_

_

_

_

___

..

'

.

._

Data became available after chart was prepared.
Source ^Department of^Labor.



106.8
112.7
124. 4
139.6
149.4
147. 6
156.2
163.0
165.5
159.7
161. 5
162. 9
162.6
161.9
163.5
163. 5
164.4
164.2
164. 9
165.3
166.7
166.7
166.8
168.9
168.2
168. 3
169.2

Farm
products

131.3
140.3
156. 6
167.7
183.8
179. 0
184.7
197.0
201.5
180.9
187.6
189.2
186.9
184. 0
187.9
189. 2
193.0
192.4
193.5
194.5
198.4
197.2
196. 1
198. 1
194. 6
192.2
193.6

Foods

108.0
113.4
133.0
159. 1
166.5
162. 2
177.6
177.8
181.2
173.3
176.4
178.8
177.5
174.8
178.9
177.2
178.0
178.0
180. 1
180.7
183.0
184. 1
185. 3
191.2
190.4
187.7
190. 0

Other than
farm and
foods

100.6
105. 4
112.4
123.9
131.9
132.0
138.2
146.0
147.4
147.5
147.3
148. 3
148.7
148. 9
149. 0
149.2
149.3
149.3
149.3
149.5
149. 9
149.8
149.9
150.4
150. 6
152. 1
152.4

PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received increased from June 15 to July 15, reaching the highest level since January. Prices paid by
farmers have been relatively stable since the first of the year.
PERCENT

OF

PERCENT

1910-14 AVERAGE

OF 1910-14 AVERAGE

350

350
MONTHLY AVERAGE

300

300

250

250

200

200

PRICES PAID
(INCL. INTEREST, TAXES)

150

150

100

100

PARITY RATIO *

50

50

1
1939

40

1

41

42

43

1

44

J

45

1

1

1

I

F M A M J

1
J

1

!

A S 0

1

1
N D

1
F

M

A

M

J

J

1 1
A

S

1
O

1 1 1 i 1

1
N

D

J

F M A M J

1947

1946

1 1 1 I
J A S O N

1
D

1948

* RATIO OF PRICES RECEIVED TO PRICES PAID, INTEREST, AND TAXES.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF




AGRICULTURE.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1910-14=100]
Prices paid by
Prices
(includ- Parity ratio 2
received 1 farmers
ing interest
by farmers
and taxes)

Period

1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average.
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average.
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: June.
July
August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February
March
April
Mav
June _
July
1
2

.. .
_ „
._
^__

..
. _

....
...
_

_ _
...

.._
__

„

95
100
124
159
192
195
202
233,
278

124
125
132
150
162
169
172
193
231

77
80
94
106
119
115
117
121
120

271
276
276
286
289
287
301

230
230
234
238
239
241
245

118
120
118
120
121
119
123

307
279
283
291
289
295
301

251
248
247
249
250
251
251

122
112
115
117
116
118
120

August 1909-July 1914=100.
Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, and taxes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.

STOCK PRICES
Industrial stock prices averaged lower in July than in June.
PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 AVERAGE
175

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
f75

MONTHLY AVERAGE

150

150

125

125

100

100

75

50

1939

40

41

42

43

44

45

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N O J F M A M J J A S O N D
1946
1947
1948

SOURCE : STANDARD AND POOR'S CORPORATION.

[1935-39 = 100]
Combined
index 1

Period
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947

monthly average
monthly average...
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average .
monthly average

1947: June
July
August _
September
October
N o vember
December
1948: January
February
March
April
May
June
July

._

^

—

_

Industrials

l

Railroads 1

Utilities *•

94.2
88.1
80.0
69.4
91.9
99.8
121. 5
139.9
123.0

94.8
87.9
80.4
71.3
94. 1
101.7
123.3
143.4
128.0

74.7
71. 1
70.6
66. 1
88.7
101.0
136. 9
143.0
105.3

98.6
95.8
81.0
61.3
82. 1
89.9
106. 1
120.2
102.9

119. 1
126.0
124.5
123. 1
125. 1
123.6
122.4

124.1
131.7
130.2
128.4
131. 1
130.3
129.2

97.6
108.2
105. 2
103. 6
104. 2
100. 1
103.9

100.8
102.2
101.4
102.0
101. 0
97.2
94.0

120. 1
114. 2
116.4
124.6
130.2
135. 1
131. 9

126.0
119.2
121.8
130.8
136.9
142.7
138.9

106. 5
101.9
105.2
115.2
122. 6
125.6
124. 7

95. 1
92.6
93.0
96.2
99.2
100.6
99.1

1
Combined index prior to June 23, 1948, was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials,
20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads
and 31 utilities.
Source: Standard & Poor's Corp.

Digitized79858—48
for FRASER


Section C: EMPLOYMENT
LABOR FORCE
Civilian employment remained above 61 million in July as a large number of youths entering the summer
labor market were absorbed by agriculture and industry. Due primarily to vacations, the number employed
but not at work increased greatly. Unemployment continued at a low level.
75

— MILLIONS OF PERSONS

50

25

25

MONTHLY AVERAGE

J

F

M

.

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

0

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

0

N

D

J

F

M.

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

0

1
UNEM PLO YEI) - N1AGNIFIED SCALE *

-

1941

F—1

F~~l

1944

1945

L

t

i

1946

i

)

i

L

}

]

)

)

:

l i i

}

1946

}

1

}

]

i

i

1

f

*

t

1947

t '}

1

i

i

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.




1

i

i

1948
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over]
Total labor
force, including
armed
forces

Period

Ci vilian employ*3d

Total

In nonagricultural
industries

In agriculture

Armed
forces

Unemployed

1941 monthly average.. .
1944 monthly average...
1945 monthly average....
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average

57, 380
65, 890
65, 140
60, 820
61, 608

50, 350
53, 960
52, 820
55, 250
58, 027

41, 250
45, 010
44, 240
46, 930
49, 761

9, 100
8,950
8,580
8,320
8,266

1,470
11, 260
11, 280
3,300
1,440

1, 040
2,270
2,141

1947: May
June
;
July
August..
September
October
November..
December

61,
64,
64,
63,
62,
62,
61,
60,

760
007
035
017
130
219
510
870

58, 330
60, 055
60, 079
59, 569
58, 872
59, 204
58, 595
57, 947

49, 370
49, 678
50, 013
50, 594
50, 145
50, 583
50, 609
50, 985

8,960
10,377
10, 066
8, 975
8,727
8,622
7,985
6, 962

1,470
1, 398
1, 371
1,352
1,346
1, 327
1,294
1, 280

1,960
2,555
2,584
2, 096
1,912
1,687
1, 621
1,643

60, 455
61, 004
61, 005
61, 760
61, 660
64, 740
65, 135

57, 149
57, 139
57, 329
58, 330
58, 660
61,296
61, 615

50, 089
50, 368
50, 482
50, 883
50, 800
51,899
52, 452

7,060
6,771
6,847
7,448
-7, 861
9, 396
9,163

1,242
1, 226
1,236
1,237
1,238
1,260
1,293

2,065
2,639
2,440
2,193
1, 761
2,184
2,227

1948: January
February
March..
April
May
June
July

._

NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.

5,560
670

NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT *

Nonagricultural employment reached the 1948 peak of 44.9 million in June, the highest level since the
pre-Christmas record of 1947. Strike settlements and seasonal gains in a number of industries were
major contributing factors.
MILLIONS OF EMPLOYEES

MILLIONS OF EMPLOYEES

6Q

60

FEDERAL, STATE. AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT

20

I0

10

1939

1941

1944

1945

S££ TABLE, FOOTNOTE I.
SOURCE:

DEPARTMENT

OF

LABOR.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

[Thousands of employees]
Period

Total wage
and salary
workers

Manufacturing

Trade

Federal,
State, and
local government

Other

3,987
9,517
10, 078
1939 monthly average
30,287
6,705
4,622
11, 001
12, 974
36, 164
7,567
1941 monthly average
10, 944
6,026
7,399
41, 480
17, 111
1944 monthly average
5,967
11, 115
15, 302
7,685
40, 069
1945 monthly average
12, 552
14, 515
5,607
41, 494
8,820
1946 monthly average
5,450
13, 170
9,450
15, 901
43, 970
1947 monthly average
12, 989
5,510
15, 569
9,277
43, 345
1947: May
5,454
13, 366
9,324
43, 816
15, 672
June
5,341
13, 449
9,316
15, 580
43, 686
July
13, 489
5,318
15, 962
9, 356
44, 125
August
13, 464
5,403
16, 175
9,471
44, 513
September
13, 451
5,414
9,684
44, 758
16, 209
October
13, 389
5,387
16, 256
9,886
November
44, 918
13, 338
5,638
16, 354
10, 288
45, 618
December
13,216
5,498
9, 622
16, 267
44, 603
1948: January
5,492
13, 084
9,520
16, 183
44, 279
February
5,546
13, 185
9,599
16, 269
44, 599
March
13, 202
5,577
9, 574
15, 945
44, 298
April. _
__
13, 477
5,624
9, 615
15, 893
44, 609
May 2
13, 600
5,607
9, 648
16, 058
44, 913
June
1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or
received pay during the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed
persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 6) which include
proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not
at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates2 in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.



I

/ \T.E1]SJjHX3E

1

W EEKLY HO URi5

Tfle 4()••h0ur VtfOrkweek in b ituminous co al mining w as resun16 d in Mayf fc ll(D\*/ing termina Nan Of the work
st op PQQ e . P re I'mni nary data iridicate that the June w orkweek in nidncifo C turir^g increased <3 little , ref Icacting
the j mf5f(W B<d cc)Q 1 supplies, a nd contract settlements
HOUR

s

PEFI \WEE K

HOUR

s

PEf

* VVEE•K

B IT uMINOUS CO AL MINING

NflANUFACTURIN( 3 INDUSTRI ES

A LI

50

50

M ON THt-Y ftve RAC;E

/I

MOT!]

40
nrr

30

30

20

20

1 0

1 0

1 1 1 11 1111 11 1 1 1 11 111 1 11 1 1 1111 11 1 11

0
93 9 41

44

45

PR IVA1PE
50

1946

939 41

30

20

20

10

10

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1i 1 11 11 11 1 1 11

• {

41

50 JR(;E :

Digitized for
8FRASER


44

45

1946

1947

M ON THL Y

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 11

i 11 I 1 1 i i i i 1

1946

1947

1946

; VEFIAG E

"

40

******

1 33S

1 , 1 1 1 1 MM.

45

RETAIL T RADE
50

30

0

44

BUILDING CONSTRUCTnoN

MON

40

IS

-

0

1948

1947

/IX

%=*^Vi
V u—
[-If- rY

40

11 1 11 1 1* 1 11

0

1948

t93<3

41

44

45

'^i^|i-

*~* ~ •^

, , , , . ! . . , . !

, ,,,, I.> , ..

i i i i i 1 i i i ii

1946

1947

1948

C)EF>AR ™rtEN T OF LABOR.

COUNCIL 0 F ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Hours per week, selected industries]
All manufacturing
industries

Period

1939 monthly
1941 monthly
1944 monthly
1945 monthly
1946 monthly
1947 monthly

average
average
average
average
average
average

1947: May
June
July..
August
September
October
November
December
1948: January..
Fe bruary
March
April 2
May 2
June
_
1
2
3

. . .
_
..
-_

Bituminous
coal mining

Private
building
construction

1

Retail trade

37. 7
40.6
45.2
43.4
40.4
40.3

27.1
31. 1
43.4
42.3
41.6
40.7

32.6
34.8
39.6
39.0
38. 1
37.8

43.0
42.5
40.3
40.3
40. 5
40. 2

40. 1
40.2
39.8
39.8
40.4
40.6
40.4
41.2

44.3
43.7
31.8
39. 1
39. 1
39.9
38.5
41.2

37.7
37.7
37.9
39.7
38. 0
38.0
36. 6
37.9

40.0
40.8
41. 1
41.0
40. 0
40.0
39.5
39.7

40. 5
40.2
40. 4
40.0
39.8
40.0

40.9
38.7
40. 6
8
26. 9
40.3

37.2
36.7
37. 1
37.0
37.2

39. 8
40. 0
39.8
39.8
39.9

Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.
Preliminary estimate.
Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
Source: Department of Labor.

WORK STOPPAGES
Workdays lost because of work stoppages dropped from 4 million in April to 2 million in Mdy.
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE
25

MILLIONS OF MAN-DAVS IDLE
25

20

15

10

10

PEAK MONTH

\

1939 40
* PRELIMINARY

41

42

43

M A M * J J A S O N ' D

44

1948

ESTIMATE.
COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

Man-days
idle
(thousands)

Period
1939: Monthly average
April—peak month
1940: Monthly average.
1941: Monthly average.
April—peak month
1942: Monthly average
1943: Monthly average
June—peak month
1944: Monthly average
1945: Monthly average
October—peak month
1946: Monthly average
1947: Monthly average
1947: May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1 948 : January
February
_
March
April
May 1
June
Preliminary estimate.




1,484
4, 902

Principal stoppage

Coal.

559

_
._

1,921
7,113

Coal.

349

1,125
4,699
_.

727

-.

3,168
8,610
9, 672
2,908
6,800
4,000
4,000
2,500
2,000
1,900

_

__

Coal.
Telephone.

700
500

1,000
725
6,000
8,000
4,100
2,000
Source: Department of Labor.

Coal.

Coal, meat packing.
Coal, meat packing.

Section D: PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS
ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Industrial production dropped about 2 percent in July.

The decline was largely due to the spreading practice of plant-

wide vacations, especially in nondurables. The seasonal adjustment factor has not been revised to take account of
this.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
Points in Total Index

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
Points in Total" Index

250 h

250

200 U

200

150 h

150

M

J*

J

A

1948
PREL IMINAR Y E5 TIM A TE
SOURCE.' Board of Governors of the Federal R e s e r v e S y s t e m

Council of Economic Advisers

[1935-39 = 100, seasonally adjusted]
Point 3 in total in<iex,
1935-39 a^rerage for to tal=100

Inde:?es, 1935- 39=100
Period

Manufact ures
Total
industrial
Nonduraproduction Total Durable
goods ble goods

1935-39 monthly average.
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average-..
1947 monthly average
1947: June
July
August
September
October
.
November
.
December
1948: January
February
March
April
May
June11
July

10




Preliminary estimate.

100
239
203
170
187
184
176
182
187
190
192
192
193
194
191
188
191
192
188

100
258
214
177
194
191
183
188
192
197
199
198
200
201
200
195
197
198
194

100
360
274
192
220
219
207
210
217
223
224
229
229
226
229
217
220
222
221

100
176
166
165
172
168
163
169
172
176
179
173
178
180
177
177
178
178
171

Manuf actures
Mining
100
132
137
134
149
148
140
150
153
155
155
156
154
155
142
147
162
158
156

Durable
goods
38
136
104
73
83
83
79
80
83
84
85
87
87
86
87
82
83
84
84

Nondurable goods
47
83
78
77
81
79
76
79
80
83
84
81
83
84
83
83
83
83
80

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Mining
15
20
21
21
23
23
21
23
23
2.4
24
24
23
24
22
22
25
24
24

PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE
MANUFACTURES
Production of transportation equipment in June was 6 percent above the
output of iron and steel showed no change; lumber and products fell
PERCENT OF 1935- 39 AVERAGE

May rate.
again.

The

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT

LUMBER

800

400

700

300

600

200

500

100

AND PRODUCTS

400
1935-39

1943 1945

1946

1947

1948

IRON AND STEEL
300

300
MONTHLY AVERAGE

200

200

100

100

1935-39

1943 1945

1946

1947

1935-39

1948

1943 1945

1946

1948

1947

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.

[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Transportation
equipment

Period

Lumber and
products

Iron and steel

1935-39 monthly average
1943 monthly average.1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average

100
734
487
232
230

100
130
110
130
144

100
208
183
150
195

1947: May
June
July
August
September..
October
November
December

225
233
217
213
227
232
234
243

142
142
133
142
140
143
150
153

197
193
181
188
195
204
202
205

244
232
240
237
215
227

156
150
151
145
142
140

203
203
207
177
206
206

-.

1948: January
February
March
April
May
June l
1

Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




11

PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE
MANUFACTURES
The June output of most nondurable industries continued steady.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS

TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS
300

300
MONTHLY A V E R A G E

200

200

100

100

1935-39

43

45

1946

1947

1935-39

1948

43

1946

45

1947.

1948

CHEMICAL PRODUCTS

MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS
400

400

300

300

200

200

I 00

100

I

1935-39

43

45

1946

1947

1948

1935-39

43

45

I I I I I I I I I II

1947

1946

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.

1948

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Textiles and
products

Period

1935-39 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: May
June
July.
August
September
October
November
December

1948: January
February
March
April
May.
June 1
1

_

.

_ _
„

__

12

Manufactured food
products

Chemical
products

100
153
146
162
163

100
185
235
173
193

100
145
151
150
157

100
384
284
236
251

164
155
142
154
160
164
172
163

184
191
195
201
203
204
205
208

155
154
155
157
158
156
158
157

253
250
251
249
248
248
251
255

178
179
175
174
176
173

214
214
211
213
220
222

158
160
159
158
159
161

255
252
250
249
250
254

Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.



Petroleum
and coal
products

NEW CONSTRUCTION
Construction, continuing to increase in July, reached the postwar record dollar volume of $1.7 billion.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2,000

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2,000

1,500

1,500

1,000

1,000

500 -;;;;;;;-

500

1939 1942 1944 1945 1946 1947

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

0

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

1946

O

J

A

S

0

N

D

J

F

M

A

1947

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

1948

^INCLUDES PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

COUNCIL

OF

ECONOMIC

ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars]
Pri vate construct ion

Total new
construction

Period

1939
1942
1944
1945
1946
1947

monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average

1947: June
July
August
September.
October
November
December
1948: January
February
March
April
May
June2
Julv

526

1, 118

345
401
871

_

1, 165

- _.

1, 162
1,264
1,364
1,423
1,497
1,432
1,320

__

1, 157
1,009
1, 166
1,302
1,455
1,605
1,724

Total
private

Residential
(nonfarm)

fYHiCkr

Federal,
State, and
local 1

317
251
152
226
688
908

176
110
45
57
265
438

141
141
107
169
422
469

208
867
193
174
184
257

885
966

405
455
500
540
590
630
610

480
511
542
546
539
511
487

277
298
322
337
368
291
223

948
837
940

500
400
475
525
585
633
667

448
437
466
490
531
595
647

209
172
226
287
339
377
410

1,042
1,086
1, 129
1, 141
1,097

1,015
1,116
1, 228
1,314

1
2

Includes public residential construction.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.


79858—48

13

NEW HOUSING STARTS
Starts dropped slightly in July but were still near record levels.
THOUSANDS OF UNITS

THOUSANDS OF UNITS

100

100

RURAL NONFARM

40

- 40

20

- 20

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

0

•* NEW NONFARM FAMILY DWELLING UNITS.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC O O V I S E " S

SOURCE:' DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

New nonfarm units (conver1 itional and
prefabricated)

Period

Total
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: January^..
February
March
April
May
June
July
August..
September
October
November
December
1948: January.
February
March
April...
May
June 2
July 3...
1
2
3

_
_

_

_
- - _
.
_ _

- -

_

Urban

Rural nonfarm

64, 683
71, 125

41, 164
40, 125

23, 520
31, 000

39, 300
42, 800
56, 700
67, 900
73, 100
79,400
81, 100
86, 800
93, 800
94, 000
79, 800
58, 800

24, 200
25, 000
32, 300
38, 000
39, 300
43, 000
44, 500
47, 400
50, 300
53, 200
48, 000
36, 300

15, 100
17, 800
24, 400
29, 900
33, 800
36, 400
36, 600
39, 400
43, 500
40, 800
31, 800
22, 500

50, 000
47, 200
70, 000
92, 000
97, 000
96, 000
94, 000

30, 400
28, 800
41, 800
54, 300
56, 400
52, 900
53, 000

19, 600
18, 400
28, 200
37, 700
40, 600
43, 100
41, 000

New nonfarm family dwelling units. Temp9rary units are excluded after 1947 when the program ended.
Revisions in data were made after chart was prepared.
Preliminary estimate. Data became available after chart was prepared.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Labor.

14




EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT
AND EQUIPMENT
Plans of nonagricultural business for spending $18.3 billion (annual rate) on new plant and equipment
in 3rd quarter 1948, are at about the same level as 2nd quarter, and $1.7 billion more than actual expenditures
a year ago. The anticipated increase over a year ago reflects mainly the upward movement of prices.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
25

25

ANN UAL TOTALS

20

15

TRANSPORTATION AND
ELECTRIC AND GAS
• UTILITIES

10

MANUFACTURING
AND
MINING

1939

1941

2

1945

3

1946
* NOT ADJUSTED fOft SEASONAL.

VARIATION.

SOURCES; SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal]

Total i

Period

Manufacturing

Transpc3rtation
Mining
Railroad

1939
1941
1945
1946
1947

.
.__

1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter. 8
Second quarter
Third quarter 8

.
,

.

Other

Electric and Commercial
miscelgas utilities and
laneous 2

5,200
8, 190
6,630
12, 040
16, 180

1, 930
3,400
3,210
5,910
7,460

380
680
440
560
690

280
560
550
570
910

280
340
320
660
800

480
710
630

1,040
1,900

1,850
2,490
1,480
3,300
4,430

12, 640
15, 760
16, 560
19, 760

5,800
7,400
7,480
9,160

600
640
720
840

640
880
920

1,200

720
920
800
760

1,320
1, 800
2, 000
2,480

3,600
4, 120
4, 640
5,360

16, 680
18, 760
18, 28t)

7,200
8,040
7,400

720
720
720

1,080
1,400
1,520

720
840
680

2,000
2,440
2,600

4,960
5,320
5,360

1
Excludes agriculture.
2
Includes trade, service,
a

finance, and communication.
Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business.
NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to
current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other
data.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted).



15

NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES
New issues in 2nd quarter 1948 were slightly higher than in the previous quarter. The proportion of
proceeds earmarked for plant and equipment continued to increase.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
3 .0 1
QUARTERLY AVERAGE

3.0

2.5

2.5

2.0

2.0

I. 5

1.5

RETIREMENT OF
DEBT AND STOCK
1.0

1.0

1939

1943

1945

X - I N C L U D E S P R E L I M I N A R Y ESTIMATE FOR JUNE.

SOURCE:

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE C O M M I S S I O N .

COUNCIL OF E C O N O M I C A D V I S E R S

[Millions of dollars]
]Proposed uses of net proceed 3

Estimated
net proceeds

Period

New money
HTnfol

1939 quarterly average. -~
1943 quarterly average
1945 quarterly average
1946 quarterly average.
1947 quarterly average __ ._
1947: First quarter
Second quarter

_ _ _ _

1
2

_

___

Third quarter.;

Fourth quarter. _ _
1948: First quarter 2
Second quarter __ _

529
287

_

_

_ _
_ _

1,476
1,689
1, 528
1,018
1,605
1, 266
2,223
1, 614
1,647

Includes small amount for other purposes.
Includes preliminary estimate for June.
NoTE.-^Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.

16




81
77
270
820

1,068
673
932
797

1, 867
1,400
1,343

Plant and
equipment
43
35
159
529
806
396
636
649

1,542

845

1,080

Working
capital
39
42
111
291
261
278
296
148
325
555
263

Retirement
of debt and
stock 1

448
210

1,206

869
460
344
672
469
354
214
303

]ENVENTOKIES JUSFD

SA]LiES

Sales by retailers and wholesalers showed little chan ge in Jijne.

BILL ONS OF DOLLARS

BILL IQNS OF DOLLARS

MANUFACTURING
NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEAS DNAL VARIATION

WHOLESALE

^*»~

30

30

^ +'

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

INVENTORIES*
^~

20

20

j^

yv< ^j^^

+~~-~'

>——•

^S~
~*

^x^?-^

SALESy

_^H—X^-^

SALES*

/*

10

— -*

* ^^•""^

1 0

^

0

i l

1 1 1 1 1 1 l 1 1
1946

l i i l l 1l i i i i
1947

, , , , , !

^**"*
11111111111

0

1948

1946

i i i l i 1 i i 1 i i
1947

1

1

1

1

1

1

i

1

t

1

1

1948

PERCE NT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

BILL IONS OF DOLLARS

DE PARTMENT STORE S

RETAIL
30

400
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

20

SALES**

300

10

/

^~~~^

f^

^J

—

^^rt

X

200

.^^.^/^

JL

\

INVENTORIES*^

^

y^x^y

\****^

. i .. . 1 i .. .i

i i t i i 1 i i i i i

1 1 1 l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1946

1947

1948

INVENTORIES**

1 00

l i 1 l l 1 1 i l 1 l

1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1946

1947

Manufa eturing 1
Inventories *

Sales *

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1948

<•* INDEXES COMPUTED FROM DA TA ON RETAIL VALUE OF SALES F0f ? MONTH AND RETAIL
BOOK VALUE OF INVENTORIED', END OF MONTH.

*

* SALES ARE TOTAL FOR tVONTH AND INVENTORIES ARE BOOK VALUE, END OF MONTH.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF CCOMMERCE AND BOARD OF 60VERNORS OF THE FEDERAL R ESERVE SYST EM.

Period

u^/*^

/

''x

s *LES*
0

^INVENTORIES*

Ret ail 2

Whol<ssale 2
Inventories *

Sales *

Inventories

8

Departm<3nt stores
Sales

4

*

_

18, 775
19, 472
21, 502
23, 435
24, 213
24, 831
25, 398
25, 853
26, 440
26, 479
26, 846
27, 051
27, 055
27, 397
27, 627
28, 020
28, 491
28, 757
29, 053
29, 149
29, 450
29, 848

10, 712
11, 131
13, 055
14, 635
14, 453
14, 175
15, 546
15, 398
15, 048
15, 063
14, 361
15, 257
16, 597
18, 082
16, 554
17, 523
16, 549
16, 208
18, 100
17, 212
16, 787
17, 830

4,304
4,578
5,131
5,994
6,248
6,444
6,611
6,778
6,737
6,864
6,726
6,886
6,997
6,943
7,349
7,577
7,618
7,754
8,054
8,049
8,071
8,239

9, 691
10, 370
11, 402
13, 052
12, 683
12, 996
12, 627
12,218
12, 369
12,541
12, 403
12, 523
13, 263
13, 615
14, 333
13, 697
14, 096
13, 993
13, 426
13, 684
13, 847
13, 740

Sales

1935-39=100, seasonally
ad jug ted 5

Millions of dollars
46: March
June
September
December
47: January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
48: January
February
March
April
May«8
June
July*

Inventories

8,023
8,917
9,995
11, 049
11, 427
11, 653
11, 832
11, 974
11, 772
11, 948
11,925
11,944
12, 073
12, 435
12, 621
12,953
13, 384
13, 751
14, 040
13, 907
13, 951
14, 168

7,783
8, 101
8,811
9,205
9, 097
9,285
9,399
9,610
9,681
9,743
9,730
9,621
10, 162
10, 258
10, 485
10, 653
10, 445
10, 381
10, 565
10, 841
10, 599
10, 715

177
210
226
274
268
274
273
264
252
242
231
227
231
251
273
283
288
303
312
308
296
283

255
277
271
276
265
266
272
277
291
289
286
283
292
277
302
303
284
283
284
304
310
313
312

5
Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for
month
and retail book value of inventories, end of month.
fl
Preliminary estimate.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

1
Not adjusted
1

for seasonal variation.
Adjusted for seasonal variation.




3
4

Book value, end of month.
Total for month.

17

EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
Imports increased again in June. The value of exports continued down.

MILLIONS

OF

MILLIONS

DOLLARS

OF

DOLLARS

1,600

1,600
MONTHLY AVERAGES

—

1,400

1,200

1,200

-

1,000

1,000

800

800

600

- 600

400

400

200

- 200

1943

1936-38

1945

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

0

N D

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

F

J

M A

M

1947

1946

J

J

A

1948

*
RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS^ AND CIVILIAN. SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED AREAS
* * RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC .ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars]
Exports l

Period
1936-38 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average

_.

1948: January
February
March
April
May
June..
1
2

.
_

.
;

_

Imports *

877
849

1,281

207
282
346
409
478

1,362
1,503
1,320
1,265
1,265
1,183
1,303
1, 195
1,199

512
474
463
450
400
481
492
455
601

1,091
1,086
1,141
1,122
1,103
1,013

546
582
666
527
549
616

247

1947: April
.
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

1,080

Excess of
exports

Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas.
Recorded general merchandise imports.
Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy.

18

1,400




40
798
531
440
803
850

1,029

857
815
865
702
811
740
598

545
504
475
595
554
397

Section E: PURCHASING POWER
NATIONAL INCOME
National income increased very little in 2nd quarter, the only significant increase being in
business and professional income (part of proprietors' income as shown on the chart).
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

250

250
ANNUAL TOTALS

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

TOTAL NATIONAL
INCOME

200

200
CORPORATE PROFITS AND
INVENTORY VALUATION
ADJUSTMENT.

PROPRIETORS' AND RENTAL
INCOME

150

I 50

100

100
, ' .'tit! '
COMPENSATION OF j. -,
EMPLOYEES'"'!'

50

50

H^UI

,1V

1939

1944

1945

2

3

2
3
1947

1946

2*
3
1948

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
Period

1939
1944
1945
1946
1947.

Total
National
Income

72.5
182.4
181. 7
179. 3
202.5

Compensation of
employees

47.8
121. 1
122.9
117.3
127.5

Corporate profProprietors*
its and invenand rental Net interest tory
valuation
income
adjustment

14.7
34. 1
36.0
41.8
46. 0

4.2

3. 1
3.0

3. 4

4.3

5.8

24.0
19. 8
16. 8
24.7

Annual i•ates, seasonal y adjusted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter...

197.3
199.3
200.6
212. 8

125.0
125.3
127.6
132.2

46.4
44.6
44.4
48. 6

1948: First quarter 1
Second quarter

215. 5
217. 1

134.0
134. 0

50.6
51.6

4. 1
4. 2
4. 4

21. 8
25.2
24.3
27.5

4. 6

26. 3
26.9

4.5
4.6

1

Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Figures for 1944-48 are revised and do not'agree with previously published data.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.




19

CORPORATE PROFITS
Corporate profits for 1st. quarter of this year were just below the peak reached in 4th. quarter 1947.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

40

40

ANNUAL TOTALS

ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

PROFITS BEFORE TAXES*
3 0

30

2 0

2 0

I 0

~
5

1

\ PROFITS
> AFTER *
TAXES

I 0

/

i
\

\
5 ,,!' .UNDISTRIBUTED , .. ' ,
, '•./A ,,I«J|I!H!«' PROFITS,: "is",»',; „ H

'''•,'!"'' ''.'A' 'j' !!!, ! 'i !'!
||!^^
.,

1929

1939

1943

2

1
"'

2

3

:!<"

.'l

t,

\\
:,:

3

2

1947

1946
*

5

<":'"'' <
'. '. I.,.'
-I

!"''

3

NO ALLOWANCE FOR INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTNENT.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

C O U N C I L OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]

Period

1929
1939
1943
1946
1947-

Corporate
profits
before taxes
9.8
6.5

24.5
21.8
29.8

Corporate
tax
liability
1.4
1.5

14.2
9.0

11.7

Corporate profits af ,er taxes
Total
8.4
5.0

10.4
12.8
18.1

Dividend
payments
5.8
3.8
4.5
5.6
6.9

Undistributed
profits
2.6
1.2
5.9
7.2

11.2

Annual i ates, seasonal] y adjusted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

28.9
28.8
29. 1
32,4

11.4
11.3
11.4
12.7

17.5
17.5
17.7
19.7

6.4
6.7
6.9
7.1

11.1
10.8
10.8
12.6

1948: First quarter1

31.4

12.2

19.2

7.3

11.9

1

Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Figures for 1944-48 are revised and do not agree with previously published data. No allowance
has been made for inventory valuation adjustment. (See p. 19 for profits after taxes and inventory valuation adjustment.)
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.

20

4

1948




PERSONAL INCOME
Wage increases and a further rise in farm income (part of proprietors1 income shown on chart) pushed personal
income in June to the record level of $211.7 billion (annual rate)—$4.5 billion higher than the May rate.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

200

200

!*vAvXSO'c' IAll' SECU R IT Y v//. WS^&tM&t

150

150

I 00

I 00

1939 1944 1945

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S
1946
1947
1948

ONO

* TERMINAL LEAVE BOND CASHING STARTED IN SEPTEMBER, 1947.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
Total
personal
income

Period

1939...
1944.
1945
1946
1947

_

72. 6
164. 5
170.3
178. 1
195.2

._

Salaries, wages, Proprietors' Dividends Social security
and other
and rental and interest and GI paylabor income
income
ments
45. 6
116. 1
116.8
111.4
121.9

14.7
34. 1
36.0
41.8
46.0

9.2
10.6
11.4
13.5
15.6

3.0
3.6
6.2
11.4
11.7

Annual r£ites, seasonallyr adjusted
1947: May..
June
July-.
August
September
October...
November
December

1948: January
February
M arch
April.
May
June

_

_

188.6
192.4
193.2
190.8
206.2
200.0
201.4
207.7

118.8
121.4
121.2
121.9
123.8
124.6
127. 4
129.3

44.2
45. 1
45.3
42.8
45.0
47.5
47.1
51.3

15.3
15. 4
15.6
15.6
16.2
15.9
16.1
16.2

10.3
10. 5
11. 1
10.5
21.2
12.0
10.8
10.9

209.4
206.8
205.6
207.4
207.2
211.9

129.4
128.9
127,6
127.0
128.8
131.3

52.4
50.0
49.3
51.9
50.7
53.0

16.5
16.6
16.6
16.7
16. 8
16.8

11. 1
11.3
12.1
11.8
10.9
11.0

NOTE.—Figures for 1944-48 are revised and do not agree with previously published data.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.



21

CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING
Consumption expenditures increased more than income in the 2nd quarter. There was
a lower rate of saving.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

250

250

ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

200

200

I 50

150
DISPOSABLE
PERSONAL INCOME

I 00

I 00

CONSUMPTION
EXPENDITURES

1939

1940

X PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAKES
SOURCE:

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

[Billions of dollars]
Period
1939...
1940.
1941.
1942
1943
1944_._
1945
1946_
1947_

70.2
75.7
92.0
116.2
131. 6
145.6
149.4
159.2
173.6

__
_

Disposable
personalJ
income

_

Less: Personal
consumption
expenditures

Equals: Personal saving

67.5
72. 1
82.3
90.8
101.6
111.4
122.8
147. 4
164.8

2.7
3.7

9. 8
25.4
30. 0
34.2
26. 6
11. 8
8.8

Annual ]rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: First quarter.
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter...2
Second quarter
1
9

.

169. 7
168.2
175.0
180.9

158. 1
164.2
165.6
171. 1

11.6
4. 1
9. 4

184. 1
187.8

172.3
176. 5

11.8
11.3

Income less taxes.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Figures for 1944-48 are revised and do not agree with previously published data.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.

22




9.7

PER CAPITA INCOME
Real purchasing power per capita has been stationary for a year.
DOLLARS
t,600

DOLLARS

1,600
SEASONALLY

ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

1947 DOLLARS'
1,200

1,200

800

800

CURRENT DOLLARS

400

400

I
1939

1940

1941

1942

1943

1944

I

1945
**# PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

Per capita disp osable
personal
mcome l
Period

1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945.
1946
1947

...

Current
dollars
_

..
.

1947 dollars *

$536

$859

1,054
1,070
1, 127
1,205

1,045
1,179
1,242
1,338
1,326
1,288
1,205

574
691
863
964

913

Annual rate 3, seasonally
adju sted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948:

First quarter
Second quarter 3

_

2***3
1948

2
3
1947

1946

* PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES.
*"* CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE 1947 MOO.

Consumers'
price index,
1947=100

62.4
62.9
66. 1
73.2
77. 6
78.8
80.7
87.5
100.0
Not adjusted
for seasonal
variation

1,186
1, 170
1,212
1,246

1,224
1, 191
1,200
1,200

96.9
98.2
101.0
103.8

1,263
1,283

1,199
1,199

105.3
107.0

1
2
8

Income less taxes.
Current dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base 1947=100.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Figures for income for 1944-48 are revised and do not agree with previously published data.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.




23

AVERAC3E HOU;RLY EA.RNINGS
IXverage

hourly ea rnings continued 1to increase genera lly in Ma y, reflecting furth er wage-increase settlements.
Preliminary data f or manufacturing indicate this trenc continiled in June.

DOLLA RS

DOLLA RS

PER HOUR

PER HOUR

RETAIL TRADE

MANUFACTURING
1.50

1.50

1947 DOLLARS*

^^^^^r*

ss£^-— crri:

N

19 47 DOLLARS*

"""" ""Ill^!

1.00

„

•^—^

* «

in i m\ ^•»i*^~"'"^n^gFg

1.00

r*^

CUR RENT DOLLARS

CUF RENT DOLLARS
.50

0

.50

i i i i i 1 i i t i i

i i i 1 1 i i t i i i

1946

1947

1

1 I 1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

i i i i i 1 t i i i i

i i i i i 1i i i i i

,

1946

1947

1948

1948

PRIVATEE BUILDING CONST RUCTION

BITU MINOUS COAL Ml NING
2.00

2.00

DOLLARS**^*-

1947

«»«»»»^

^«»«

1.50
/~"^~
CUF

—*+>*/

**.• <*• •mi

1947 DOLLARS*

— *-^y

1.50

"^

^***
i+

••i«*^^^'V .

RENT DOLLARS

CUR RENT DOLLARS

1.00

1.00

.50

.50

0

i i i i i 1 i i i i i

,

1947

1948

1946

i

0

i i i i i | i i i i i
1946

, i , . , 1 . . . . .

!

i i i i i 1 i i i i i

1947

1948

* CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX Ot \l THE BASE 1947=100.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Selected industries]
Manufe icturing

Retail trade

Bituminous coal mining

Private build ing coni
tion *

Period
Current
dollars
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: May
„•„__
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February
March
April 8
May
June *

_
__
_
_

_

1
Covers only employees
3
Current dollars divided
1
Preliminary estimate.
4

_

__
_

_

_
_
_

.„

24

$1. 014
1. 103
1. 293
1. 268
1.239
1.221
1.232
1.242
1.236
1. 227
1.214
1. 223
1.224
1.218
1.212
1.223
1.230
1.215
1.215
1.222

Current
dollars
$0. 536
.568
.724
.773
.878
.991
.985
.996
1.003
1.003
1.012
1.013
1. 025
1.016
1.044
1.050
1.044
1.055
1.064

at the site of privately financed building projects.
by consumers' price index on the base 1947=100.

Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
Source: Department of Labor.




$0. 633
.729
1.019
1.023
1.084
1. 221
1.207
1.226
1.230
1.236
1.249
1.258
1. 268
1.278
1.285
1.287
1.289
1.292
1.301
1.319

1947
dollars a

1947
dollars 2
$0. 859
.859
.919
.958
1. 003
.991
1.005
1. 009
1.008
. 996
.983
.986
. 989
.969
.985
.998
.996
.992
.993

Current
dollars
$0. 886
.993
1. 186
1.240
1.401
1.644
1.470
1.489
1.740
1.787
1.819
1.798
1. 851
1.826
1.847
1.826
1. 841
4
1. 822
1.841

1947
dollars *
$1. 420
1.502
1.505
1.537
1.601
1.644
1.500
1.509
1.749
1.775
1.768
1. 747
1.787
1. 741
1. 742
1.736
1.758
* 1. 715
1.719

Current
dollars
$0. 932
1.010
1.319
1.379
1. 478
1.676
1. 656
1.661
1. 669
1.689
1.718
1.738
1.765
1. 774
1.781
1.806
1.805
1.818
1.833

19<
dolls

AVERAC5E WEE KLY EA.RN] [NGS

J

)Average weekly dc>llar earnings in J une passed last 1 3ecembejr's peak, but weeikly real earnings (1947 dollars)
\lave fallen over i >I.OO in the sam e period , accordin g to pre liminary data.
DOLL ARS PER WEEK

DOLL ARS PER WEEK

MANUFACTURING

RETAIL TRADE

60

60

^

CURREN T DOLLARS
w

40

**

~_ ^

^*^JS J-W'^J*

>
.f1947 DOLLARS* *

—*-~"~1""

CUR RENT DOLLARS
\

40

^-^^•**^
tit

1947 DOLLARS
20

0

20

i i i i i 1i i i i i

i i t i t 1 i i i i i

i i i i i 1 i i i i i

1946

1947

1948

0

i i i i i 1i i i i i

i i i i [ 1i i i i i

i i i i i 1i i i i i

1946

1947

1948

BITU MINOUS COAL Ml NING

PRIVATE: BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
1 00

100

80

CUR RENT DOLLARS

x
60

^-

** >

*x
*•x
~*-?_~y
r

^r^-

\£t$*3^*

^

j

1947 DOLLARS

80

\^*r
**

CUR RENT DOLLARS

i

40

1947 DOLLARS* *

.

40

20

0

-***-^*]
/

—<~**

__

•—

^""x---^xx-

60

20

111111ii11i

1 1 1 I 1 1 I 1 1 1 1

11111111111

1946

1947

1948

0

* EARNINGS DATA DISTORTED D URING THESE MONTHS BECAUSLr t?^ WORK STOPPAGES OR VAC
AT IONS.

SOURCE:

1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 I 1 1

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

i i i i i 1 i i i ii

1946

1947

1948

#* ( CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED 8 r CONSUMER'S PRICE INDEX ON BASE OF 1947 f IOO

DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

[Selected industries]
Manufa LCturing

Retail trade

Bituminous coal mining

Private bu ilding construc tion >

Period
Current
dollars
1939 monthly average. 1941 monthly average..
1944 monthly average..
1945 monthly average..
1946 monthly average..
1947 monthly average. .
1947: May
June
July.
August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
__
February
March
April8
May
June 3

1947 dollars2

$23. 86
29. 58
46. 08
44.39
43.74
49.25
48.44
49. 33
48.98
49. 17
50.47
51.05
51.29
52.69
52.07
51.75
52.07
51. 71
51.76
52.81

$38. 24
44.75
58.48
55.01
49.99
49. 25
49.43
49.98
49.23
48.83
49.05
49.61
49.51
50.23
49. 12
49. 19
49.69
48.65
48.33
48.94

Current
dollars

1947 dollars 8

$21. 17
21.94
26. 58
28.31
32.55
36. 67
36.50
37.82
37.99
38. 14
37.06
36.74
37. 14
37.51
37.62
38.33
38.89
39.27
39.84

$33. 93
33. 19
33.73
35.08
37. 20
36. 67
37.24
38.32
38. 18
37.87
36.02
35.70
35.85
35.76
35.49
36.44
37. 11
36.94
37.20

Current
dollars

$23. 88
30.86
51.27
52.25
58.03
66.86
65. 51
67. 09
54.87
70.23
71. 19
71.91
71.77
75.22
75.78
70.54
74.84
4
49. 33
74. 09 -

1947 dollars *

$38. 27
46. 69
65.06
64. 75
66.32
66. 86
66.85
67.97
55. 15
69.74
69. 18
69.88
69.28
71.71
71. 49
67. 05
71.41
4
46. 41
69. 18

Current
dollars

$30. 39
35. 14
52. 18
53.73
56.24
63. 30
62.38
62.68
63.30
66.97
65.22
66. 14
64.55
67.31
66.28
66.31
66.89
67.31
68. 15

1947 dollars*

$48. 70
53. 16
66.22
66.58
64.27
63.30
63.65
63.51
63.62
66.50
63.38
64.28
62. 31
64. 17
62.53
63.03
63.83
63.32
63.63

1
Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.
1
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1947=100.
1
Preliminary estimate.
4

Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
Source: Department of Labor.




25

FARM INCOME
The increase in dollar farm income from May to June reflected particularly the sharp rise in the prices
received for meat animals.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

J

SOURCE:

DEPARTMENT OF

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average1947: May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February
March
April
May.
June 4

26

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S .

AGRICULTURE.

Period




S

,

..

,

_

Farm income
(millions of
current
dollars) 1

Prices paid by
farmers (incl.
interest and
taxes) 1939=
100 2

723
761
981

100.0
100.8
106.5
121.0
130. 6
136.3
138.7
155. 6
186.3
183.9
185.5
185.5
188.7
191.9
192.7
194. 4
197.6
202.4
200.0
199.2
200.8
201.6
202.4

1,340
1,678
1,753
1,857
2, 110
2, 543
2, 026
2,211
2,662
2, 517
3,060
3,773
3, 109
2,927
2,581
1,866
2,001
2, 096
2,103
2,413

Farm income,
(millions of
1939 dollars)8

1
Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments.
*1 Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1939=100.
Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, and taxes, 1939=100.
4
Preliminary.
Source: Department of Agriculture.

723
755
921

1, 107
1,285
1,286
1,339
1,356
1,365
1,102
1,192
1,435
1,334
1,595
1,958
1,599
1,481
1,275

933

1,005
1,044
1,043
1,192

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION

EXPENDITURES

In 2nd quarter, durable purchases more than recovered from their 1st quarter drop; services and
nondurables continued up.
BILLIONS OP DOLLARS

BILLIONS OP DOLLARS

200

200

ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

ANNUAL TOTALS

150

I 50

100

100

50

1944

1939

1945

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

[Billions of dollars)
Personal consumption expenditures
Period
Nondurable
goods

Total
1939_
1944_
1945.
1946_
1947

67. 5
111.4
122. 8
147. 4
164. 8

35.3
67.5
75.4
87.5
96.5

Durable
goods
6.7
6.9
8.3
16.2
21. 0

Services
25.5
37.0
39.2
43.6
47.3

An nual rates, seaisonally adjust ed

1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter *
Fourth quarter
1948: First q uarter
Second quarter i _

__

_

158.1
164. 2
165.6
171. 1

92.5
96.3
96.8
100.2

19.6
21. 1
21. 1
22. 1

46.0
46.7
47.7
48.8

172.3
176. 5

101.3
103.5

21.4
22.5

49.6
50.5

1

Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Figures for 1944-48 are revised and do not agree with previously published data*
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.



27

CONSUMER CREDIT
Consumer credit increased about 2 percent from May to June. Approximately two-thirds of the increase was
attributable to further gains in instalment credit.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
16

BJLLIONS OF DOLLARS
16 I

14

12

10

-2

1929

1939

1941

1943

J F M A M J

END OF YEAR

J A

S 0 N D J F M A M J

J A S O N D J

M A M J J

1947

1946

A

0 N D

1948

END OF MONTH
* SINGLE PAYMENT LOANS AND SERVICE CREDIT
Council of

[Billions of dollars]
Total
consumer
credit
outstanding

End of period

1929...
1939.. _
1941.
1943
1945
1946.
1947
1947: May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1 948 : January
February
March
April
May
June

_

_

Other
consumer
credit 3

1.7
1.5
1.8
1.5
2.0

2.7
2.0
2.2
1.9
2.3

3.6

3.6

10. 9
11.2
11.3
11.5
11. 7
12. 1
12.7
13.4

4. 7

2.8
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.3
3.6

3.4
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.6

13. 1
13.0
13.4
13.6
13.8
14. 1

6.2
6.3
6.5

3.2
3.3

3.6
3.6
3.6

7.2

3.4

3.5

10.2
13.4

„

Charge
accounts

3.2
4.4
5.9
2.0
2.4
3.9
6.2

7.6
8.0
9.9
5.3
6.6

,

Instalment
credit l

4.9

5. 1

5.2
5.3

5. 5

5.8
6.2

6.7
7.0

3. 1

3. 1

3.3
3.3

3. 1

3.6
3.6

1
Includes automobile and other sale credit and repair and modernization loans insured by Federal Housing Administration.
* Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

28




Economic Ad»iser$

Section F:
NEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS
Bank investments in Government securities dropped SI.I billion from May to June.

.LIONS OF DOLLARS

50

25

F

1929 1939 1945
END OF YEAR

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

1948
END OF MONTH
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE

I of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

End of period

Council of Economic Advisers

[Billions of dollars]
L oans and invejstments, all co mmercial ban!:s
Investments
Bank loans
Total
U.S.
Other
Government securities
Total
securities
8. 7
13.5
4.8
36. 0
49. 5
7. 1
23.4
17.2
16.3
40.7
7. 3
90.6
97.9
26. 1
124.0
8.
1
82.9
74.8
114. 0
31. 1
9.0
78.3
69.3
38. 1
116. 4
8. 3
79.8
71.5
33. 1
112.9
8. 5
70.5
79. 1
112.8
33.7
8. 7
79.4
70.7
113.4
34.0
8.8
79.1
70.3
34.9
114.0
8.9
79.7
70.8
115.2
35.5
9.0
70.5
79.5
36.8
116.3
8.9
70. 1
79.0
37.6
116.6
9. 0
78.2
69.2
38.1
116.3
9. 0
78.4
69.4
38.2
116.6
9. 0
76.9
67.9
38.7
115.5
9.3
74.7
65.5
38.9
113. 6
9.2
75. 5
66.3
38. 8
114.3
9.2
65.9
75. 1
39.4
114.5
9.2
64.8
74.0
39.7
113.7

1929
1939
-1945
_
1946
1947
1947: May
June
;
July
--August
September
October
November
December
_
_
1948: January
_.
February
_
March
April
May 1
._
_
June
-1
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.



29

MONEY SUPPLY
There was no significant change in money supply in June.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
150

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
150

125

100

100

75

50

50

2$ ~

25

1929

1939

1941

1943

1946

1945

END OF Y E A R

1948
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE

END OF MONTH
Council of Economic

System

[Billions of dollars]
Total money
supply

End of period
1929..
1939..
1941..
1943..
1945..
1946..
1947..
1947: May
June
July
August.
September
October
November
December.
1948: January
February...
March
April
May
June 3

„
.
„ _

26.5
37.0
50.5
90. 1
126.9
113. 1
115. 1
109.8
109.8
110.6
111. 3
112. 5
113. 5
114. 4
115. 1
113.7
112.0
109.6
110.9
111.0
110.8

Currency
outside
banks
3.6
6.4

9. 6
18.8
26. 5
26.7
26. 5
26. 1
26. 3
26.0
26.2
26. 4
26. 3
26. 6
26.5
25.8
25. 7
25.6
25.4
25.4
25.6

Adjusted
demand
deposits 1
22. 8
29. 8
39.0
60.8
75.9
83.3
87. 1
81.5
82. 1
83.2
83. 4
84. 2
85 4
85 9
87. 1
86.6
84.6
81.6
83.0
83.2
83.0

U.S.
Government
deposits 3
0.2
.8
1.9

10.4
24.6
3. 1

1.5
2.2
1.4
1.4
1.7
1.9
1.8
1.9
1.5
1.3
1.8
2.4
2,5
2.4
2.2

1
Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and TL S. Government, less cash items in process of collection.
2
Beginning December 1938, includes U. S. Treasurer's time deposits, open account.
3
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve S4ystem.




30

]FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROfl/[
]PAYMENTS TO FHE
'
PUBLIC
1"he

AND

excess of Federal cash receipts ovei' cash payments for the 1st half of 19^•8 was $7.6 billion. Preliminary

e stimates for the last half of 1948 indie:ate a close balance.
BILL

ONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLL ARS
20

20
QUARTERLY TOTALS, NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL

15

A—
/\
\
//

JL

y\

CASH RECEIPTS

^ipi»

f

^^wX^vf.xfxj?

A

^|&8&:$:$S:*
:
TtjS
S$S:\
^t***iiia^\

/

EXCESS

/
f

^^^t***fc.

/

1 0
--

\*.

\

OF-

•RECEIPTS

s

>

\y^-.%.

./^Sp&JV

S
S

^*\

1 5

\
\

/

^**i^^
^^^^

1
/ .

^^^*«^^

/

^?r~

CASH PAYMENTS

^v

...

^^+*

1 0

^•

5

t

0

1

1

1

1

2

3

4

1

1
2

1
3

1

4

1

1
2*

1947

1946

i
3

0
4

1948

SOURCE: TREASURY. DEPARTMENT

[Millions of dollars]
Calendar year by quarters

1946: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter ]
Second quarter

_

_
--

Federal cash
receipts from
the public

Federal cash
payments to
the public

14, 153
11,098
10, 377
9, 870
14, 962
11,430
10, 470
10,011
15, 732
11,467

13, 648
13, 599
9, 106
8,909
9, 772
12, 198
10, 503
8, 666
9,322
10, 313

Excess of receipts (+) or
payments (— )
+ 505
-2, 501
+ 1,271
-f-961
+ 5, 190
-768
-33

+ 1, 345
+ 6,410
+ 1, 154

1

Preliminary estimate.
Source: Treasury Department.

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U. S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D. C,
Price 15 cents




31