Full text of Economic Indicators : April 1954
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83d Congress, 2d Session Economic Indicators APRIL 1954 ed for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES OVKRNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1954 JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT (Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Gong.) JESSE P. WOLGOTT, Michigan, Chairman RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont, Vice Chairman RICHARD M. SIMPSON (Pennsylvania) HENRY O. TALLE (Iowa) GEORGE H. BENDER (Ohio) EDWARD J. HART (New Jersey) WRIGHT PATMAN (Texas) RICHARD BOLLING (Missouri) ARTHUR V. WATKINS (Utah) BARRY GOLDWATER (Arizona) FRANK CARLSON, (Kansas) JOHN SPARKMAN (Alabama) PAUL H. DOUGLAS (Illinois) J. WILLIAM FULBRIGHT (Arkansas) GROVER W. ENSLEY, Staff Director JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS ARTHUR F. BURNS, Chairman NEIL H. JACOBY WALTER W. STEWART [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S. J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled^ That the Joint Committee on the Economic Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Committee on the Economic Report; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Graphics Unit, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce 11 Contents THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY Page The Nation's Economic Accounts Gross National Product 1 2 .. PRICES Consumer Prices., Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers Stock Prices 3 4 5 6 EMPLOYMENT AND Labor Force Nonagricultural Employment—Selected Industries Average Weekly Hours—Selected Industries Average Hourly Earnings—Selected Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Selected Industries 7 8 9 10 11 , PRODUCTION AND Industrial Production Weekly Production—Selected Indicators Production of Selected Manufactures Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment New Construction , New Housing Starts Inventories and Sales Merchandise Exports and Imports , , . ... , 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 \v 20 PURCHASING POWER National Income Corporate Profits Personal Income Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving Per Capita Disposable Income Farm Income . . . ,. ( ...,....., ?1 22 23 24 25 26 CREDIT, MONEY, Hank Loans and Investments Consumer Credit 27 * Bond Yields and Interest Rates Money Supply , Federal Budget Receipts and Expenditures .. . . Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public.... 2H 29 in U 12 THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY THE NATION'S ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS Economic activity as measured by over-all expenditures and incomes showecf a further moderate decline in the first quarter of 1954, according to preliminary estimates. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL TOTALS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES CONSUMERS 300 200 DISPOSABLE INCOME -EXPENDITURES 50 I ! I I I I I I I I I I J I I I I J I I I BUSINESS INVESTMENT-" EXCESS OF GROSS RETAINED EARNINGS GROSS RETAINED I I I EARNINGS!/ I I I I J I GOVERNMENT-FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL 100 * EXCESS OF RECEIPTS RECEIPTS (LESS TRANSFER PAYMENTS) I 1941 I 43 1 \ 45 \ \ 47 I ( 49 \ J 51 I 53 1951 1952 1953 1954 I/ INCLUDES NET FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN ADDITION TO GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT. !/ INCLUDES UNDISTRIBUTED CORPORATE PROFITS AND CORPORATE INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT, AND CAPITAL CONSUMPTION ALLOWANCES. I/ PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES. NOTE: THE SUM OF THE THREE INCOME AND RECEIPT ITEMS SHOWN IN THIS CHART IS NOT EQUAL TO THE SUM OF THE EXPENDITURES, OR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT, BECAUSE OF STATISTICAL DISCREPANCIES. FOR EXPLANATION AND USE OF THIS ARRANGEMENT, SEE SENATE REPORT NO. 1295, JOINT ECONOMIC REPORT, PP. 92-93, 99-105, AND THE ANNUAL ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JANUARY 1953, APPENDIX A. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT Gross national product declined about 1 percent in the first quarter of 1954, according to preliminary estimates. A decline in inventory investment accounted for most of the drop in total private investment. Lower Federal expenditures were partially offset by a rise at the State and local level. Consumer expenditures were apparently maintained at the rate of the fourth quarter of 1953. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 400 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES ANNUAL TOTALS GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT 350 300 300 250 200 150 150 7 GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND _ SERVICES 100 50 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 1941 1943 1945 IS4? 1949 1951 1953 1951 -^PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS. SOURCE^ DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED). 1952 1953 1954 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Period 1939 1944 1946 1947. 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 • - -. - > - -. _ - _ . 1952: Third quarter _ Fourth quarter 1953- First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1 954 : First quarter 2 Personal Total eongross sumpnational tion product expenditures 67. 5 91. 3 • 213. 7 111.-6 146. 9 211. 1 165. 6 233. 3 259. 0 177. 9 258. 2 180.6 286.8 194.6 329.8 208. 1 348.0 218. 1 367. 2 229. 8 345. 3 361. 1 363. 9 371.4 369. 5 363. 5 359. 0 217, 2 224.4 - 227. 7 230. 4 231.0 230.0 230. 0 Government purchases of goods and services Federal Less: State GovernTotal and 1 Other Total National security ment local sales 5.2 0.9 1.3 3. 9 13. 1 7.9 89.0 96.5 88.6 1. 6 1.2 •-2.1 7.5 30.9 21. 2 4. 6 20.9 2.5 2.7 10.0 15,8 8.9 28. 6 13.3 3.8 12. 8 1.3 21.0 16. 1 36. 6 5.6 .6 15. 6 1.9 25.4 43.6 6.6 .5 19.3 .4 18. 2 22. 1 42.0 -2.3 3.9 18.5 .2 19.9 41. 1 37.4 62. 9 4.1 .4 .3 21. 8 54.2 48.9 —.2 77. 5 5.8 .5 23.4 59.7 84. 9 51. 8 8. 5 .6 1. 9 25. 2 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 54. 6 49.2 77. 8 -2.0 6.0 .6 23.2 56.4 80.4 50.5 16 .5 6.3 24.0 2 1 83.4 58. 5 51.6 7. 6 .7 24. 9 60. 5 -2. 5 85. 0 53. 5 7.6 .7 24. 6 52. 1 -2. 1 60. 4 8. 8 85. 5 25.2 .5 59. 5 50.0 1 0 85. 7 10.0 .5 26.3 55. 5 82. 5 47. 0 -1. 0 9.0 .5 27. 0 Gross Net private foreign domestic investinvestment ment • - 9.9 7.7 28. 7 30.2 42. 7 33. 5 52. 5 58.6 52. 5 54. 4 52. 3 57. 9 54. 9 58.5 55. 2 48. 8 47. 5 1 Includes expenditures for military services, international security and foreign relations (except foreign loans), development and control of atomic energy, promotion of the merchant marine, promotion of defense production and economic stabilization, and civil defense. For f u r t h e r details, see Annual Economic Report of the President, January 1954 (p. 167), and Survey of Current Business, July 1953 (p. 10). These expenditures are not r'miparuble with the "national security" category in The Budget of the U. S. Government for the Fiscal Year Ending June SO, 1955, and shown on p. 31 of Economic. Jiitlicuhns. 2 Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers. . NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of < \.m J-.UM <v u-Mvpt as noted). PRICES CONSUMER PRICES Consumer prices declined 0.2 percent between January 15 and February 15, primarily as a result of price decreases for food and transportation. The February index for all items was 0.3 percent below the peak reached in October 1953. , 1947-49 = 100 INDEX, 1947-49 = 100 140 t 1 i I I i I I 90 1954 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [ 1947-49 =100]' All items Food 59.4 69.7 76.9 83.4 102.8 101.8 102.8 111.0 113.5 114.4 1953: January February March___. .......... April ... ^ «j May June .. July August September October . . November . December 1954: January February Period 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average 1951 monthly average 1952 monthly average 1953 monthly average ... - - ... Housing Apparel Transportation Heading Other and Medical Personal goods recreaand care care tion services Total Rent 47. 1 61.3 68.9 79.0 104. 1 100. 0 101.2 112. 6 114.6 112.8 <•) (•) W (•) 101.7 103.3 106. 1 112.4 114.6 117.7 86.6 90.4 90.9 91.4 100. 7 105.0 108.8 113. 1 117.9 124. 1 52.5 64.9 76.3 83.7 103.5 99.4 98. 1 106. 9 105.8 104.8 100.9 108. 5 111.3 118. 4 126.2 129. 7 100.9 104. 1 106.0 111. 1 117. 2 121.3 101. 3 101. 1 101. 1 110.5 111. 8 112.8 100.4 104. 1 103.4 106. 5 107.0 108.0 («) W (>)(*)100.5 103.4 105.2 109.7 115. 4 118.2 113.9 113.4 113.6 113. 7 114.0 114.5 114.7 115.0 115.2 115.4 115.0 114.9 113. 1 111.5 111.7 111.5 112. 1 113.7 113.8 114. 1 113.8 113.6 112.0 112.3 116.4 116.6 116.8 117.0 117. 1 117.4 117.8 118. 0 118.4 118.7 118. 9 118.9 121. 1 121. 5 121.7 122. 1 123.0 123.3 123. 8 125. 1 126.0 126.8 127. 3 127.6 104.6 104.6 104.7 104.6 104.7 104.6 104.4 104.3 105.3 105.5 105. 5 105.3 129.3 129. 1 129. 3 129.4 129.4 129.4 129.7 130.6 130. 7 130.7 130. 1 128.9 119.4 119.3 119.5 120. 2 120. 7 121. 1 121.5 121.8 122. 6 122.8 123.3 123.6 112.4 112. 5 112. 4 112. 5 112.8 112.6 112. 6 112. 7 112.9 113.2 113. 4 113.6 107.8 107.5 107.7 107.9 108.0 107. 8 107.4 107.6 107. 8 108.6 108. 9 108. 9 115.9 115.8 117.5 117. 9 118.0 118.2 118.3 118.4 118. 5 119.7 120.2 120.3 115.2 115. 0 113. 1 112. 6 118.8 118.9 127.8 127. 9 104.9 104.7 130.5 129.4 123.7 124. 1 113.7 113. 9 108. 7 108. 0 120. 3 120. 2 W 0) («)(•) (') (0 (') 00 ('W) (') 0) W (') W (») 1 The new base 1947-49=100 is in compliance with recommendations of the U. S. Bureau of the Budget. Beginning with January 1953 the index structure has been 3 changed. Not available. Source: Department of Labor. Q WHOLESALE PRICES Average wholesale prices in March were again relatively stable. Prices for processed foods and for tarm products moved within a narrow range while industrial prices continued to show little change. INDEX, 1947-49" 100 120 INDEX ,1947-49 = 100 izu 110 % ^/ i* -^Xx^»/ f 1 !/ v ^^ OTHER THAN FARM PRODUCTS ANDFOODS (INDUSTRIAL Ik ^ \ \> ~J^ * \\ A* \ \ ^\ ^ ALL COMMODITIES t\ , 110 . f ^ ![ \ :; // 100 fe — ''\S*&' •V X '*' PROCESSED* FOODS 100 ./ ^\' v \l \r^\'' *x- ^Jr *v / FARM PRODUCTS B"*^ V 80 90 J f 1 1 I I ! 1 1 f 1 1 i 1 II 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1949 1950 1 I M 1 1 1 » 1 1 1951 I i 1 ! 1 i f 1 1 t 1 \ 1 1 ! 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 | I | I ! | 1 I95E 1953 1954 11947-49=100] All com- Period 1942 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthlv average. 1950 monthly average 1951 monthly average _ . . 1952 monthlv average. 1953 monthly average 1953: March April : May June _ __ July August September October . November December 1954: Jan uar v February.. March 1 Week ended : 1954: March 2 9 16 23_ 30 April 6 modities ___ „ Farm products Processed foods Other than farm products and foods (industrial) 64.2 104.4 99.2 103. 1 114.8 111. 6 110. 1 110.0 109.4 109. 8 109.5 110.9 110.6 111.0 110.2 109.8 110. 1 110. 9 110.5 110.6 59.2 107.3 92. 8 97. 5 113. 4 107. 0 97.0 99.8 97.3 97.8 95. 4 97.9 96.4 98. 1 95.3 93. 7 94.4 97. 8 97. 7 98,5 59. 1 106. 1 95. 7 99.8 111. 4 108. 8 104. 6 104. 1 103. 2 104.3 103.3 105.5 104.8 106.6 104.7 103. 8 104. 3 106. 2 104.8 105.3 68.3 103. 4 101.3 105.0 115.9 113.2 114. 0 113.4 113. 2 113. 6 113.9 114. 8 114.9 114.7 114.6 114. 5 114.6 114.6 114.4 114.3 110.7 110. 6 110. 6 110. 8 110. 9 110.9 99.0 99.0 98. 8 99. 6 99. 9 100.4 105.2 104. 6 104. 7 104. 8 105.0 104. 6 114. 3 114.4 114. 3 114. 4 114.4 114.6 1 Data for week ended March 16 plotted as estimat t« for month; monthly indexes became available after chart was prepared. Source: Department of Labor. 80 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers declined on the average about 0.8 percent during the month ended March 15, Prices were lower for potatoes, eggs, dairy products, hogs, and calves, and higher for sheep and lambs, soybeans, commercial vegetables, chickens, beef cattle, cotton, wheat, and corn. Prices paid were up 0.4 percent from their February level. The parity ratio dropped back 1 index point to the November 1953 level. INDEX, !9iO-i4 = 100 325 INDEX, 1910-14 =100 325 300 275 ^"PARITY INDEX PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES) 225 PARITY RATIO 100 75 1950 1949 1952 1951 1954 1953 -^RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO PARITY INDEX. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS (1910-14=100] Prices paid for items used in Period Living 1939 monthly average. 1942 monthly average 1944 monthiv average 1946 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average 1951 monthly average 1952 monthiv average 1953 monthly average 1953: February 15 March 15 April 15_ _ _ Mav 15 June 15__ Julv 15 August 15 September 15 _ _ October 15 November 15 December 15 1 954 : ,1 an u arv 1 5 February 15 March 15 _ __ _ _ -• 120 149 175 202 251 243 246 268 271 270 266 269 269 270 271 271 273 270 270 270 270 271 271 272 Parity index Prices (prices paid, interest, taxes, byreceived farmers Production and wage rates) Parity ratio * 95 159 197 236 287 250 258 302 288 258 264 264 259 263 257 260 255 257 249 249 254 259 258 256 77 105 108 113 110 100 101 107 100 92 94 94 92 94 93 93 91 93 90 90 91 92 91 90 121 148 173 191 250 238 246 273 274 253 261 261 257 257 248 250 249 247 246 248 250 254 255 255 123 152 182 208 260 251 256 282 287 279 281 282 280 280 277 279 279 277 276 277 278 282 282 283 2 3 » Ratio of index of prices received by farmers to parity index. »Includes wartime subsidy payments paid on beef cattle, sheep, lambs, milk, and butterfat between October 1943 and June 1946. Source: Department of Agriculture. 2 4 5 5 S 2—54 STOCK PRICES Stock prices quickly recovered from a minor dip that occurred during the latter part of March to reach a postwar high. INDEX, 1939 = 100 300 INDEX, 1939 = 100 300 1941 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION. 11930— Compositel index Period Weekly average: 1940 1946 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 -... 1953: March April May June . July August September October November December _ _ 1954: January February March Week ended: 1954-. March 5 12__ 19 26 April 2 _ - Aianutnei unog Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Transportation Utilities Trade, finance, and service Mining 94.2 149. 4 127. 7 154. 1 184.9 195.0 193.3 93. 4 146. 6 132. 1 1 65. 7 206.8 220.2 220. 1 92. 5 138, 6 116.0 150. 2 178.5 188.8 192. 6 94. 2 154. 5 147.2 180.2 233. 1 249.3 245. 2 99 2 202. 4 136.0 160.0 199.0 220.6 218.7 99.9 121.0 98. 1 108.9 112.6 117.9 121. 5 90.4 204.3 160.7 183.8 207.7 206. 0 207. 1 75.6 125.5 129.4 143.5 204.9 275.7 240.5 203. 9 193.7 194. 1 187.3 190.4 190.2 181.0 187. 1 191.2 193. 4 198. 4 203. 1 207. 1 232. 2 220.2 220.9 212. 7 216.7 216.6 205.0 213.5 218.7 221. 8 228.4 233. 9 239.8 206. 8 193. 8 195. 9 186.8 188.0 185. 9 175.2 184. 4 190.4 192. 1 198.8 204. 2 209. 6 255. 6 244.5 243. 8 236.4 242.9 244.7 232.2 240. 2 244.8 249. 1 255.5 261.2 267. 5 238. 1 223.2 225.7 219. 2 223.2 217. 2 198. 9 202.4 203.8 200. 0 206.2 214. 6 212. 3 124.3 120.4 120.0 116. 6 118.9 120.7 118.8 121.4 123.2 124.5 126. 1 128.4 130.4 212.9 207.4 209 3 204.3 206. 0 206 3 198.0 201. 2 207.0 209.2 213.0 216.0 214. 6 262.7 252.0 247. 0 237.4 236.8 236.3 219.2 218.8 231.4 229.6 238.6 250. 3 259. 2 206.4 207. 3 208. 3 206.4 211. 9 238.4 240.0 241. 5 239. 2 246. 8 208. 4 209. 4 210. 9 209. 6 217. 6 266.0 268. 1 269. 5 266. 4 273. 7 214. 7 213. 0 213. 7 207. 7 211. 9 130.0 130.7 130. 8 130. 0 131. 0 215.9 214. 5 213. 5 214.3 219.5 260.7 256.6 260.7 258.6 265.7 ' Includes 265 common stocks: 14 for mining, 98 for durable goods manufacturing, 72 for nondurablegoods manufacturing, 21 for transportation, 28 for utilities, and 32 for trade, finance, and service. Indexes are for weekly closing prices. Source; Securities and Exchange Commission. EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES LABOR FORCE Nonagricultural employment extended its decline somewhat between February and March. MILLIONS OF PERSONS MILLIONS OF PERSONS 70 65 60 1940 42 44 46 48 50 52 * 14 YEARS OF ASE AND OVER. 1952 1954 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period 68-area sample : 5 1939 monthly average. _ 1944 monthly average.. 1949 monthly average.. 1950 monthly average, _ 1952 monthly average. _ 1953 monthly average. _ 1953: February March _ „ April • May June July August .. September October November December. 1954: January February. _ . 230-area sample : 6 1954: January February March Total labor force (including armed forces) l 55, 600 66, 040 63, 721 64, 749 66, 560 67, 001 66, 400 66, 679 66, 338 66; 497 68, 290 68, 258 68, 238 67, 127 66, 954 66, 874 66, 106 65, 589 66, 905 Unemployment * Insured unemployTempo%of ment rary 2 Agricul- Nonagri- layoffs (thousands4 Total Number civilian labor of tural cultural persons) force Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over 17.2 9,480 45, 750 55, 230 36, 140 9,610 1.2 54, 630 670 53, 960 45, 010 8, 950 5.5 58, 710 62, 105 50, 684 8,026 2,470 3,395 185 5.0 92 52, 450 59, 957 63, 099 1,599 3, 142 7,507 1,064 2.7 142 61, 293 62, 966 1, 673 6, 805 54, 488 2.4 1,524 142 61, 929 63, 453 1,058 55, 245 6,683 2.9 61, 050 62, 850 1, 174 1, 800 110 55, 400 5, 650 1,674 63, 134 1, 100 84 2.7 61, 460 55, 540 5,920 1,026 1,582 61, 228 62, 810 2.5 54, 958 100 6,270 62, 964 2. 1 940 126 1,306 61, 658 6, 590 55, 068 2.4 64, 734 1,562 63, 172 122 878 55, 046 8, 126 2.4 64, 668 913 144 63, 120 55, 292 1,548 7, 828 1.9 64, 648 868 1,240 63, 408 7,474 170 55, 934 830 62, 306 63, 552 141 1,246 2.0 7,262 55, 044 62, 242 63, 404 1, 162 1.8 897 55, 083 133 7, 159 1, 198 2.3 61, 925 63, 353 183 1,428 55, 274 6,651 1, 632 62, 614 3.0 60, 764 1,850 195 55, 326 5,438 3.8 2,205 62, 137 2, 359 59, 778 54, 433 273 5,345 2,362 5.3 60, 106 63, 491 3,385 54, 480 177 5,626 66, 292 67, 139 67, 218 62, 840 63, 725 63, 825 Employment Civilian labor force 59, 753 60, 055 60, 100 5,284 5, 704 5, 875 54, 469 54, 351 54, 225 427 216 236 3,087 3,671 3,725 4.9 5.8 5.8 6 2,205 2, 362 2, 174 1 Includes part-time workers and those with jobs but not at work for such reasons as vacation, illness, bad weather, temporary layoff, and industrial disputes. * The number of temporary layoffs, which the Census Bureau includes in the employment figure (See footnote 1), is shown separately so as to afford a basis for fur3 ther 4analysis of employment and unemployment. See footnote 2. All programs. Weekly average for period. For description of series, see Labor Market and Employment8 Security, April 1954. 1 Pertains to labor force data only. Data prior to 1953 not comparable with subsequent data. Preliminary estimate, r» Sources: Department of Commerce (labor force) and Department of Labor (insured unemployment). •* NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT - SELECTED INDUSTRIES Manufacturing employment continued to decline in March with the largest drop again occurring in durable goods industries. Employment in retail trade rose less than seasonally. MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS DURABLE MANUFACTURING J F M A M J J NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING A S O N D CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE [1954] .^1952 _H COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. [Thousands of wage and salary workers l] Manufacturing Period Total 1939 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average 1951 monthly average 1952 monthly average 1953 monthly average 1953: February March. April May June July August _ _ September October November December 1 9f>4 : January 2 February March 2 _ _ _ 10, 078 15,321 14, 178 14, 967 16, 082 16, 209 17, 006 17, 013 17, 135 17, 077 17, 040 17, 162 17, 069 17, 258 17, 221 17,017 16, 706 16, 488 16, 158 16, 034 15, 873 Durable Nondugoods rable goods 4, 683 8,312 7,473 8,085 9,071 9,262 9,954 9,989 10, 103 10, 117 10, 096 10, 121 10, 007 10, 006 9,955 9,879 9, 705 9, 584 9,402 9, 287 9, 137 5,394 7,010 6,705 6, 882 7, Oil 6, 946 7,052 7,024 7,032 6, 960 6,944 7, 041 7,062 7, 252 7,266 7, 138 7,001 6, 904 6, 756 6, 747 6, 736 Contract Wholesale Finance, construc- and retail service, tion trade etc. 1, 150 2, 169 2, 165 2,333 2,588 2,572 2,543 2, 280 2,301 2,416 2,509 2, 608 2,662 2,715 2,751 2, 772 2,674 2, 521 2, 247 2,248 2,282 6,612 9,519 9, 513 9,645 10, 013 10, 251 10, 475 10, 214 10, 284 10, 314 10, 348 10, 415 10, 355 10, 334 10, 464 10, 611 10, 772 11,310 10, 365 10, 250 10, 252 4,703 6, 636 6,736 6,894 7,068 7,237 7,350 7, 171 7,218 7,321 7,382 7,443 7,488 7,485 7,447 7,391 7,359 7, 336 7, 276 7, 285 7,322 Government (Federal, State, local) J Taikiportation and public utilities 3,987 5, 614 5, 837 5,992 6,373 6,633 6,667 6,625 6,666 6,653 6,669 6,638 6,478 6,449 6,663 6, 749 6,740 6,999 6, 746 6, 725 6,749 2,912 4, 141 3,949 3,977 4, 166 4,220 4, 276 4, 210 4,235 4, 244 4,279 4,315 4,340 4,337 4,323 4, 310 4, 273 4, 240 4, 137 4, 103 4,050 Mining 845 982 918 889 913 872 832 85 i 84.5 835 831. 835 823 831 826 813 816 809 792 777 760 ' Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagrieultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period nuling nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this tHl)I«« not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 7) which include proi«i it-tors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are I.USIMJ on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. > Preliminary estimates. Source: Department of Labor. 8 AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES The average workweek of production workers in manufacturing industries was one-fifth of an hour shorter in March than in February. The drop reflected a decrease in the durable goods area, particularly in metals and metal products. Since March 1953, the average workweek has declined about 1% hours, with the largest drop occurring in the durable goods industries where the scheduling of overtime had been prevalent. HOURS PER WEEK HOURS PER WEEK NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING DURABLE MANUFACTURING I I I I II oLu_ 1954 RETAIL TRADE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION ) I | i i | i| COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. [Hours per week, for production workers or nonsupervisory employees] Manufacturing r Period 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 mon thlv average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average 1951 monthly average 1952 monthly average - _. 1953 monthly average1953: February March April- May JuneJuly. August September October November. December 1954 : January 2 February March 2 _ _ Total _ __ _ _ - _ 37 7 44 9 40. 4 40. 4 40. 1 39. 2 40. 5 40. 7 40. 7 40. 5 40. 9 41. 1 40. 8 40. 7 40. 7 40. 3 40. 5 39. 9 40. 3 40. 0 40. 2 39.4 39. 6 39. 4 Durable goods 38. 0 46. 6 40. 2 40. 6 40. 5 39. 5 41.2 41. 6 41. 5 41. 2 41. 7 41. 9 41. 6 41. 5 41. 4 40. 8 41. 1 40. 6 41. 0 40. 6 40. 8 40. 1 40. 2 39. 9 Building Nondurable construction Retail trade goods 37. 4 42. 5 40. 5 40. 1 39. 6 38.8 39. 7 39. 5 39. 6 39. 5 39. 8 40. 0 39. 5 39. 5 39.7 39. 6 39. 6 39.0 39. 2 39. 1 39. 3 38. 5 38. 8 38. 8 32. 6 38.4 38. 1 37. 6 *37. 3 36.7 36. 3 37. 2 38. 1 37. 0 37. 1 36.8 36. 9 37.3 37.7 37. 1 37.6 36. 1 37. 7 36.7 36. 3 33. 9 36. 1 3 () 3 i Data beginning with January 1948 are not strictly comparable with those for earlier periods. Preliminary estimates. Source: Department of Labor, Not available. 1 (3) 42. 7 40. 3 40.7 40. 3 40. 3 40.4 40. 5 40. 2 39. 9 39. 2 39.2 39.2 39. 1 39.0 39. 4 39.9 39.8 39. 1 38.9 38. 7 39. 2 39. 0 39. 1 9 AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS • SELECTED INDUSTRIES Hourly earnings of factory production workers in March were unchanged from the February rate of $1.79, including overtime and premium pay, but were 4 cents higher than in March 1953. DOLL/tf?S DOLL/^RS PER PER HOUR 200 HOUR 2.60 BUILDING CONSTRUCTION DURABLE MANUFACTURING 1.90 / 2.50 rA 1.80 ^"" f^ A 1953 PRICES X±i/ 1953 PRICES^ f 2.30 1.70 CURRENT PRICES /-* 1.60 2.20 ""^ CURRENT PRICES 1 1.50 0 2.10 ~i u i i 1 i i i i n~i 1 1 1 i 1 i i i i r "1 1951 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M I 1952 1953 1 f1= l M 1 1 1 M 1 1 l" 1 1954 0 ~i^ 1 1 i i 1 1 i i i nn 1951 i i M I M i i r ~i I 1952 i M 1 1 i i 1 1 n-M i M l M 1 1 r 1 1953 I 1954 1.50 1.70 NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING RETAIL TRADE ^% 1.60 r 1.40 1953 PRICES1 953 PRICES"'' 1.50 1.30 ss^* \_ /•»—«—/ —-*% r-^y^ CURRENT -PRICES r ^ CURRENT PRICES ^~" 1.40 0 ri i i t i I i i i i rn M i i 1 i i i i rri 1951 i 1952 i M 1 1 M 1 1 f ~! I 1953 •^ EARNINGS IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY CONSUMER PRICE INDEX 1 i 1 I 1 1 M M l') 1954 'o n 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 r ~M 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 r ~"\ i i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 rH i i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ri 1951 1 1952 i 1953 1 1954 ON BASE 1953 MOO. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [For production workers or nonsupervisory employees] All manufacturing Period Current prices 1939 monthly average $0. 633 1943 monthly average. .961 1946 monthly average 1.086 1947 monthly average 1.237 1.350 1948 monthly average . 1949 monthly average 1.401 1950 monthly average 1.465 1951 monthly average 1.59 1952 monthly average 1.67 1953 monthly average.. 1.77 1.74 1953: February March 1.75 April . 1.75 1.76 May June 1.76 1.77 July 1.77 August September 1. 79 October 1. 78 November 1.79 December _ 1.79 1954: January 3 1.80 February _ 1. 79 March 3 1. 79 1953 prices 1 $1. 220 1.485 1. 490 1. 481 1.502 1. 574 1. 630 1.64 1.68 1.77 1.76 1.76 1.76 1. 77 1.76 1. 76 1.76 1.78 1. 76 1.78 1.78 1. 79 1. 78 (4) Building Durable goods Nondurable goods Retail trade manufacturing construction manufacturing Current Current Current Current 1953 1953 1953 1953 prices prices * prices prices * prices prices prices l prices 1 $0. 698 $1. 345 $0. 582 $1. 121 $0. 932 $1. 796 $0. 542 $1. 044 1.252 1. 241 . 803 1. 059 .679 1. 637 1.935 1.049 1. 302 1.478 2.027 1.015 1.586 1. 156 .893 1.225 1.402 1.547 1. 292 1. 171 1. 681 2 2.013 1.009 1.208 1. 422 '2 1. 848 2. 056 1.278 1. 410 1. 568 1.088 1. 210 2. 174 1.325 1. 489 1.469 1. 935 1. 651 1. 137 1.278 2.031 1.710 1.533 1.537 2. 259 1.378 1. 176 1. 308 1. 72 1. 53 2. 19 1.48 1.67 2.26 1. 26 1.30 1.55 1.77 1. 54 2.31 1.32 2.33 1.76 1. 33 1.61 1.61 2. 48 1.87 2. 48 1.40 1. 87 1.40 2. 42 1.59 2.44 1.58 1.87 1.85 1.38 1.37 1.60 2.44 1. 86 1. 59 2. 46 1.85 1. 37 1.38 2.44 1.87 1.60 1.59 2. 45 1.86 1.38 1.39 1.60 2. 44 1. 60 1. 87 ' 2. 45 1. 86 1. 39 1.39 1.60 2.44 1.87 1. 60 2. 44 1.87 1.40 1. 40 1. 61 1.61 1.87 2. 47 2.46 1. 41 1.88 1. 41 1.60 1. 61 2. 49 1.87 1.41 2. 48 1.88 1.40 2. 52 1. 62 1.63 2.50 1. 90 1.89 1. 42 1. 41 1. 62 1. 61 2. 54 2. 52 1.87 1.42 1.89 1. 41 1.62 2.55 1. 63 2. 54 1.42 1.88 1.89 1.41 1. 64 1.63 2.57 1. 90 1.89 2.56 1.39 1.38 1. 64 2. 58 1.90 1. 65 2.56 1.91 1.43 1. 42 1. 63 1. 64 2. 574 1. 89 2. 56 1. 90 1. 42 1. 41 4 4 4 4 1. 64 1. 90 () C) () () c) (4) i Earnings in current prices divided by consumer price index on base 1953 = 100. > Data beginning with January 1948 are not strictly comparable with those for earlier periods. 10 * Preliminary estimates. < Not available. Source: Department of Labor. AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES The slight drop in average weekly earnings of production workers in manufacturing industries to $70.53 in March reflected a shorter workweek. This brought the reduction over the past year to $1.40. DOLLARS PER WEEK 85 DOLLARS PER WEEK 100 DURABLE MANUFACTURING NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING n 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 iTi 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 rn 1 1 1 1 1 •^EARNINGS IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ON BASE 1953 = 100. SOURCE:DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISfRS [For production workers or no ^supervisory employees) All manufacturing Period 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average 1951 monthly average 1952 monthly average 1953 monthly average 1953- February _ March April May June July August September October November December 1954: January 3 February March 3 Durable ^oods manufacturing Nondurable goods manufacturing Current prices 1953 prices l Current 1953 prices prices l Current prices $23. 86 43. 14 . _ 43. 82 49.97 54. 14 54. 92 59.33 64. 71 67.97 71. 57 71. 17 71.93 71. 40 71. 63 71.63 71. 33 71. 69 71. 42 71.73 71.60 71.96 70. 92 70. 88 70. 53 $45. 97 66. 68 60. 11 59. 84 60. 22 61. 71 66. 00 66. 71 68. 52 71. 57 71.82 72.44 71. 83 71.85 71. 56 71. 12 71. 33 70. 92 71.09 71. 24 71.67 70. 43 70. 53 (4) $26. 50 49. 30 46. 49 52. 46 57. 11 58. 03 63. 32 69. 47 73.04 77.20 77. 15 77. 52 77. 38 77. 19 77.42 76. 70 77. 27 77. 14 77. 49 76.73 77.52 76. 59 76. 38 75. 81 $21. 78 $41. 97 52. 74 34. 12 41. 14- 56. 43 56. 24 46. 96 56. 30 50. 61 57. 76 51. 41 54. 71 60. 86 58.46 60. 27 60. 98 61. 47 63. 47 63.47 62. 88 63. 45 64. 05 63. 60 62. 81 63. 19 63. 39 63. 20 63.46 63. 52 63. 57 63. 76 63. 44 63. 76 63. 13 63. 57 62. 93 63. 50 63.41 63. 73 64. 19 64. 45 63. 09 63. 53 63. 31 63. 63 63. 63 (4) $51. 06 76. 20 63. 77 62. 83 63. 53 65. 20 70.43 71. 62 73. 63 77.20 77. 85 78.07 77. 85 77. 42 77. 34 76.47 76. 89 76. 60 76. 80 76. 35 77.21 76.06 76.00 (4) 1 Earnings In current prices divided by consumer price index on base 1953=100. » Data beginning with January 1948 are not strictly with those for earlier periods. • Preliminary estimates. 1953 prices l Building construction Retail trade Current 1953 l prices prices Current prices $58. 55 74. 39 77. 15 75. 81 2 76. 59 79. 72 82. 01 83. 99 88. 72 91. 70 90. 60 90. 42 90. 58 91. 28 91. 90 91.37 93. 15 90. 34 94. 91 93. 12 92. 92 86. 85 92. 32 (4) $23. 14 27.36 36. 35 40. 66 43. 85 45. 93 47. 63 50. 65 52. 67 54.73 53. 70 53. 70 53. 96 54. 21 55. 16 56. 26 56. 12 55. 52 55. 24 54. 95 54.49 55. 77 55.52 (4) $30. 39 48. 13 56. 24 63. 30 2 68. 85 70. 95 73. 73 81.47 88.01 91. 70 89. 78 89. 79 90. 04 91. 01 91. 99 91. 64 93. 62 90. 97 95. 76 93. 59 93. 29 87. 46 92. 78 (4) 1953 prices * $44. 59 42.29 49.86 48. 69 48.78 51. 61 52.98 52. 22 53.09 54.73 54. 19 54. 08 54.29 54. 37 55. 10 56. 09 55.84 55. 13 54.75 54.68 54.27 55.38 55. 24 (4) * Not available. Source: Department of Labor. 11 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION The slight further drop in industrial production in March resulted from reduced output of durable goods, according to preliminary estimates. Compared with March 1953, production was down about 9 percent. I N D E X , 1947-49 I N D E X , 1947-49 175 100 75 I 1942 I I 1 ! I I L__J I L__I J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F * M A M J J A S O N D 1952 1953 1954 * PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES. SOURCE: BOARD OF G O V E R N O R S OF THE F E D E R A L R E S E R V E SYSTEM. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1947-49=100, seasonally adjusted] Total production 1939 _ 1943 _ 1946 1947 1948 _ 1949_1950 1951 1952 1953 1953: February March April May June _ July August __ September October __ _ November December. _ _ _ _ 1954: January J __ _ February 1 .__ March »_... f _ ._ _ 58 127 90 100 104 97 112 120 124 134 134 135 136 137 136 137 136 133 132 129 126 125 124 123 Manufactures Total 57 133 90 100 103 97 113 121 125 136 136 137 138 139 138 139 138 135 134 131 127 127 126 124 Durable Nondurable 49 162 86 101 104 95 116 128 136 153 155 155 155 156 154 157 157 152 151 146 142 141 139 135 I ' l e l i m i n a r y estimates for March and revised estimates for January and February became available after the chart was prepared. Hoim-r: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 12 66 103 95 99 102 99 111 114 114 118 118 119 121 123 121 121 119 117 117 115 112 113 113 113 68 87 91 100 106 94 105 115 114 116 116 115 115 117 119 120 119 118 114 112 112 113 112 112 WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORS Steel production, continuing to drop during March, averaged 69 percent of theoretical capacity. The auto assembly rate picked up somewhat but was about 14 percent below a year ago. Electric power distribution was about the same as in February but 5 percent higher than in March 1953. MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS (DAILY AVERAGE) MILLIONS OF TONS 3 SOURCES: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, AND WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS. Steel Period Weekly average: 1950. 1951_ 1952 1953 1953 : February . March. April MavJune Julv August September October _. November December 1954: January.February March 3 _ _ Week ended: 1954: March 6. Thousands of net tons i.AM.jr April 13 20 27 3 3 103 - __ . _ _ ._ Percent of theoreticall capacity COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Electric power, Bituminous coal by utilities (thousands of (millions of kilowatt-hours) short tons) 2 Cars and trucks (number) 1,857 2,018 1,782 2, 141 2,233 2,295 2,225 2,257 2,192 2,099 2, 123 2,076 2, 136 2,026 1,798 1,795 1,771 1,645 96.9 100.9 85. 8 94.9 99. 1 101.8 98.7 100. 1 97.2 93. 1 94.2 92. 1 94.7 89. 9 79.7 75.3 74.3 69. 0 6, 183 6,958 7,451 8,244 8, 136 8,116 a, 018 7,956 8,279 8,238 8, 488 8,352 8,331 8,352 8,502 8,918 8,576 8, 526 1,687 1,772 1,548 1,507 1,433 1,406 1,468 1,465 1,603 1,540 1,549 1,640 1,503 1,496 1,466 1,346 1,226 1, 146 154, 212 129, 828 106, 834 140, 551 146, 188 158, 658 166, 322 149, 709 150, 252 154, 274 147, 542 128, 375 140,317 103, 576 103,511 138, 387 132, 416 136, 951 1, 686 1, 652 1, 613 1,624 1, 648 1,626 70.7 69.3 67.6 68. 1 69. 1 68.2 8,586 8,519 8,572 8,491 8,463 1,043 1, 157 1, 125 1, 112 1,106 129, 609 132, 673 144, 698 139, 185 138, 591 141,332 » Percent of capacity based on weekly net ton capacity or 1,906,268 for the first half of 1950,1,928,721 beginning July 1,1950,1,099,034 beginning January 1,1951, 2,077,040 beginning January 1,1952, 2,254,459 beginning January 1,1953, and 2,384,549 beginning January 3,1954. 3 8 Dally average for week. Preliminary estimates. Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department «af the Interior, and Ward's Automotive Reports 45582—54 8 *^ PRODUCTION OF SELECTED MANUFACTURES Production of most durable goods declined further in March, while output of most nondurables was maintained at their January-February levels. INDEX, 1947-49=100, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED INDEX, 1947-49 = 100, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 150 100 100 I I I I I I I I II II I ! M M I I I M I I I I I I M I I I I I I I I II I I I I 50 200 1947 49 51 53 1954 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1947-49=100, seasonally adjusted] Durable manufactures Primary metals Period 1939 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 . 1952 1953 _ . 1953: January February March April-- _ May June _ July August September October. November December 1954: January1.1 February March l _ _ — _ _ __ _ _ _ _ 1 TransporLumber tation and Machinery equipproducts ment 53 103 107 90 115 126 116 132 80 101 106 93 113 113 111 118 38 103 104 93 114 130 147 160 48 96 102 102 120 135 154 189 135 137 136 136 139 137 136 137 130 128 122 113 111 108 101 122 124 121 120 119 114 119 116 114 117 115 110 115 119 164 163 163 164 162 161 164 165 161 159 152 146 143 142 139 191 191 190 190 192 188 196 191 186 189 180 182 185 178 173 Nondurable manufactures and Chemicals Textiles Petroleum Food and allied and coal beverage and manuproducts products apparel factures 45 63 66 80 97 101 97 99 103 104 99 103 101 99 100 97 121 110 103 110 136 122 105 106 137 123 105 105 147 130 107 107 107 108 110 113 115 113 111 106 102 102 98 95 97 95 96 128 128 128 131 131 131 132 132 131 129 129 128 124 126 127 Preliminary estimates for March and revised estimates for January and February became available after the chart was prepared. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 14 106 107 107 108 109 106 108 108 109 108 108 103 105 106 106 142 143 145 148 151 150 152 148 147 146 145 145 144 144 144 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to preliminary estimates, gross private domestic investment in the first quarter of 1954 fell $1.3 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate), almost all of which represented a lower rate of inventory investment, A moderate increase in new construction more than offset a decline of $K billion in producers1 durable equipment. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 70 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL TOTALS 1 70 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 60 60 50 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 30 PRODUCERS' DURABLE EQUIPMENT* 4,- 20 NEW CONSTRUCTION / \ 10 \ CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES J 1947 1949 L J I 1953 1952 1951 -^PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED) 1954 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Total gross private domestic investment Period 1939.. 1944 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 .. _ . .. . 9.9 7.7 28.7 30. 2 42.7 33.5 52.5 58.6 52. 5 54. 4 New construction Residential nonfarm Total 4. 9 2.8 10.3 13. 9 17.7 17. 2 22. 7 23. 1 23.4 25. 1 2.7 .8 4.0 6. 3 8.6 8.3 12.6 11. 0 11. 1 11.8 Other Producers' durable equipment 2.2 2.0 6.3 7.6 9. 1 9.0 10. 1 12. 2 12.3 13.3 Change in business inventories 4.6 5.7 12.3 17. 1 19.9 18. 7 22. 3 24.6 25.4 26.7 0.4 — 8 6*. 1 -.8 5.0 -2.5 7.5 10. 9 3.7 2.5 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1952: Third quarter Fourth quarter 52.3 57.9 23. 1 23.9 10.8 11.6 12.3 12.3 24.9 25. 5 4.2 8.5 1953: First quarter Second quarter.. Third quarter Fourth quarter 54.9 58.5 55.2 48.8 25.0 25.3 24.9 25.3 12.2 12.0 11.5 11.6 12.8 13.4 13.4 13.6 26.2 26.9 27.1 26.5 3. 7 6.3 3. 1 -3.0 1 954 : First quarter 1 47. 5 26. 0 12.3 13. 8 26. 0 -4,5 1 Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). 15 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Business plans call for expenditures of $27.2 billion on new plant and equipment in 1954, according to a survey made in February and early March. This is almost as large as the record amount spent in 1953. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL TOTALS 30 — I954 If SEE NOTE 4 ON TABLE BELOW. SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Transportation Mining Durable NonduraRailroads Other goods ble gooda Manufacturing Total1 Period 1939 1945 1948 1949 1950 1951 . 1952 3 1953 4 1954 - 5.51 a 69 22.06 19.28 20.60 25.64 26.49 28. 39 27.23 Total L94 a 98 9. 13 7. 15 7.49 10.85 11. 63 12. 28 11. 41 0.76 1.59 3. 48 2.59 3. 14 5. 17 5. 61 5. 82 5. 22 1.19 2.39 5.65 4.56 436 5.68 6.02 6. 46 6. 19 0.33 .38 .88 .79 .71 .93 . 98 1.01 1.04 0.28 .55 1.32 1.35 1. 11 1.47 1.40 1.31 .94 Public Commerand utilities cial otner* 0.36 .57 1.28 .89 1.21 1.49 1. 50 1.46 1. 40 0.52 .50 2.54 3.31 3.66 3.89 4. 55 4. 43 2.08 2.70 6.90 5,98 6.78 7.24 7. 09 7.78 8.01 1.38 1.38 1. 59 1.52 1.46 1. 38 4.40 4. 64 4.72 4.46 4.60 4. 58 7.42 7.92 7. 94 8.00 8.04 8. 03 a 12 Seasonally adjusted annual rates ] 953 : First quarter Second quarter Third quarter. Fourth quarter 1954 : First quarter 4 4 Second quarter 27. 84 28.48 28.92 28.56 28.04 27.52 12.35 12.26 12.30 12.22 11.70 11.59 5.98 5.88 5.76 5. 69 5.60 5.43 6.36 6.38 6.54 6.53 6. 11 6. 16 .96 .93 1. 06 1. 10 1.06 1.08 1. 34 1. 34 1.30 1.26 1. 17 .86 i Excludes agriculture. > Commercial and other includes trade, service, finance, communications, and construction. t Annual total is sum of seasonally unadjusted quarterly expenditures; it does not necessarily coincide with average of seasonally adjusted figures. In part twnuBo of adjustments when necessary for systematic tendencies in anticipatory data. * K.stlmates based on anticipated capital expenditures reported by business in February 1954. NOTK." These figures do not agroe with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the iutu»r cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. I Mull will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Hour eon: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce. 16 NEW CONSTRUCTION Expenditures for total new construction, seasonally adjusted, increased again in March. The rise in private construction, entirely in residential, was partially offset by a slight reduction in the public area. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3.5 ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL (NONFARM) OTHER PRIVATE FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL i i F i M I A i M I J J A S O N D J F M A M 1952 J J A S O N D J 1953 I F I M I A I M I J J A I S I O i N D 1954 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. (Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Total new construction Period 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1 943 month! v average 1949 monthly average ._ 1950 monthly average 1951 monthly average _ _ 1952 monthly average. _ 1953 monthly average 1953: February _ _ _ March April Mav „ June July August September October NovemberDecember _ 1954: January February March 2 . __ - -_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ ___ _ - 1 Includes public n^in'< ntial construction. Preliminary estimates. 2 683 1, 173 438 1,000 1,806 1, 899 2, 371 2, 575 2, 720 2,904 2,987 3, 050 3,025 2, 910 2, 922 2, 849 2,811 2,824 2,841 2, 900 2, 900 2, 915 3, 038 3,075 Private construction Total Residential Other (nonfarm) private 142 223 366 142 143 285 114 182 68 469 335 803 689 1,404 715 676 689 1, 365 738 1,050 1,788 1,797 914 883 925 893 1,818 976 992 1, 968 946 1,007 1, 953 966 1,089 2, 055 979 2,059 1,080 991 989 1,980 978 1,986 1,008 976 979 1, 955 981 1,937 956 942 986 1, B28 988 1, 945 957 1,006 963 1, 969 996 989 1, 985 1,006 1, 971 965 1,021 1,015 2,036 1,016 2. 097 1. 081 Federal, State, and local * 317 888 256 197 402 534 583 778 902 936 1,034 995 966 930 936 894 874 896 896 931 915 944 1,002 978 Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor. 17 NEW HOUSING STARTS The number of new housing starts increased 24,000 in March to 97,000. However, compared with March 1953, there was a decline of 8 percent. On a seasonally adjusted basis, private starts in March of this year were at an annual rate of 1,161,000 units, or 8 percent above the level for 1953. THOUSANDS OF UNITS THOUSANDS OF UNITS 200 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS , All new nonfarm housing units started Period Total Annual totals: 1949_ 1951 1953 Monthly average: 1949 1950 1952 1953 1953: January February March April May June July August September _ October November December ! 1954: January 1! _ _ _ February March . . . i Preliminary estimates; Mon-h boon-no available after chart was prepared. 18 1, 025, 100 1, 396, 000 1, 091, 300 1, 127, 000 1, 106, 000 85, 400 116,300 90, 900 93, 900 92. 200 72, 100 79, 200 105, 800 111,400 108, 300 104, 600 96, 700 93, 200 95, 100 90, 100 81, 500 68, 000 66, 000 73, 000 97, 000 Public 36, 300 43, 800 71, 200 58, 500 35, 600 3,000 3, 600 5, 900 4,900 3,000 3,900 5,400 9,700 4,000 2,700 2,600 300 1,000 3, 000 100 1,600 1, 300 1, 300 1,200 1,200 Private 988, 800 1, 352, 200 1, 020, 100 1, 068, 500 1, 070, 400 82, 400 112, 700 85, 000 89, 000 89, 200 68, 200 73, 800 96, 100 107, 400 105, 600 102, 000 96, 400 92, 200 92, 100 90, 000 79, 900 66, 700 64, 700 71, 800 95, 800 Source: Department of Labor. Seasonally adjusted annual rates: private 1, 137, 000 1, 213, 000 1, 165, 000 1, 141, 000 1, 039, 000 1, 037, 000 1, 006, 000 962, 000 1, 023, 000 1, 029, 000 1, 090, 000 1, 112,000 1, 078, 000 1, 180, 000 1, 161, 000 INVENTORIES AND SALES Business sales (seasonally adjusted) rose in February at the distributors* level. However, preliminary reports indicate a 2 percent drop in retail sales in March. Total business inventories declined in February at about the same rate as in January. Both manufacturers and retailers reduced their stocks with all of the reduction occurring in durable goods. Wholesalers continued to expand their stocks slightly. Orders received by manufacturers picked up. BIL LIONS OF DOLLARS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLJONS OF DOLLARS, SEASONALLY TOTAL* AND MANUFACTURING ADJUSTED RETAIL - 80 ^ TOTAL 20 r" INVENTORIES^^ SALES ^ INVENTORIES* - * s 0 60 i i i 1 i i j i if | 1 1 1 M 1951 TOTA . - 1 1 1 M 1NDE X, 1947-49*100, SEASONALLY SALES* 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 M 1952 1 1 ! 1 1 M 1953 1 I 1 1 i 1 1954 ADJUSTED DEPARTMENT STORES ^^vU_ 140 *«*. s**^—* ^ 40 «^ MANUF"ACTURING / 130 INVE NTORIES ' '• | 20 -^-—X, —*s-*+*> *^-~ -^-^-^ •»•• 120 si i \ \ s INVENTORIES*^, 1/ MANUFACTlJRING^ SALES 110 0 1 ! I I 1 II 195! | M i l l ! 1 II 1952 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1S53 1 1 1 \ \ 1 ! 1 1 1 100 N^ \ 1 I 1 II !954 1 1 II 1 1 1 I 1 1 ! ! 1 1 M 1 1951 1952 ,/ , / N/ s*J wv \ V M M 1 I 1 1 1 11 1953 1 1 M i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1954 * WHOLESALE, MANUFACTURING, AND RETAIL. AL Period Total business l InvenSales3 tories 2 RES ERVE Ret-all Inven-2 Sales * tories SYSTEM. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturing Inventories 2 Sales 3 New orders8 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1939__ _ _ ._„ 1946 1948 1949_. _ 1950 1951 1952 1953 1953: January.February March April May June July August September October. _ _ November December 1954: January 8 February March 6 20, 051 42. 892 55; 612 52, 111 64, 721 5 75, 268 77, 109 81, 072 77, 130 _ 77, 693 78, 266 78, 996 79, 678 80, 167 81, 116 81, 586 82, 000 81, 805 81, 276 813 072 80, 692 80, 340 10, 802 27, 150 36, 438 34, 664 39, 917 5 44, 821 46, 080 48, 817 47, 819 48, 533 49, 671 50, 186 49, 395 50, 003 50, 398 48, 138 48, 652 48, 284 47, 518 47, 209 46, 412 46, 709 5, 534 11, 852 15, 828 15, 311 18, 652 5 21 239 21, 592 22, 661 21, 518 21, 707 21, 981 22, 387 22, 455 22, 294 22, 743 22, 775 22, 924 22, 720 22, 437 22, 661 22, 521 22, 421 3, 503 8, 541 10, 877 10, 893 11, 974 6 13, 185 13, 674 14, 234 14, 140 14, 514 14, 437 14, 280 14, 424 14, 412 14, 469 14, 073 13, 982 14, 040 14, 104 13, 932 13, 622 13, 932 13, 670 11,465 24, 457 31, 693 28, 860 34, 314 42, 904 44, 190 46, 722 44, 330 44, 581 44, 797 45, 164 45, 673 46, 160 46, 485 46, 888 47, 087 47, 044 46, 909 46, 722 46, 388 46, 069 5, 112 12, 617 17, 630 16,416 19, 285 22, 205 23, 046 25, 271 24, 507 24, 724 25, 763 26, 358 25, 816 25, 882 26, 366 25, 067 25, 379 25, 010 24, 256 24, 126 23, 864 23, 643 5,354 13, 694 17, 350 15, 903 20, 980 24, 391 23, 710 23, 846 24, 519 24, 513 25, 096 25, 682 25, 883 25, 152 24, 525 22, 339 22, 661 22, 163 21, 594 22, 026 20,711 21, 854 Department stores Inven-4 Sales 8 tories Index 1947-49=100, seasonally adjusted 35 77 107 100 109 129 118 126 124 123 122 125 127 128 130 131 128 128 127 123 120 119 35 90 104 98 105 109 110 112 111 112 115 110 117 115 113 112 107 110 113 112 107 109 107 6 New series on retail trade beginning with 1951; not comparable with previous * Also includes wholesale, not shown separately In this table. ' Book value, end of period. data. See Survey of Current Business, September and November 1952, for detail. « Monthly average for year and total for month. 6 Preliminary estimates. < Book value, end of period, except annual data, which are monthly averages. Source; Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 19 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS Although both grant-aid and other exports rose in February, the total was well below the 1953 monthly average. Merchandise imports, continuing to drop in February, were also well below the monthly average for last year. The export surplus increased during the month. MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,600 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,600 1,200 1,200 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS EXCLUDING GRANT-AID jt \ SHIPMENTS f\\ J/ SEE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE, [Millions of dollars] Merchandise exports Period 1936-38 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthlv average 1950 monthly average 1951 monthlv average _. _ 1952 monthlv average 1953 monthly average 1953: January February March April May .. June ._ July August Pepternber October. November _ Jlecember 1954: January 3 - _ _ 1'Vbruary _ . . _ . . . ...... Total * 247 812 1,054 1.003 ' 856 1, 253 1, 266 1,312 1,293 1, 198 1,389 1, 394 1, 452 1,383 1,357 1, 184 1, 254 1,251 1, 244 1,349 1,090 J , 109 Grant-aid shipments 2 Excluding grant-aid shipments 54 757 24 89 166 292 277 272 337 340 366 371 398 274 204 234 216 215 169 184 833 1, 164 1, 100 1,020 1,016 926 1,052 1, 054 1,086 1,012 959 910 1, 050 1,017 1, 028 1, 134 921 985 Merchandise imports 207 412 594 552 738 914 893 906 922 856 1,004 1,013 902 933 908 841 925 813 849 908 837 792 Excess of exports (+) or imports ( — ) Total + 40 -f-400 +460 + 452 + 118 + 339 + 373 + 406 + 370 + 343 + 385 + 381 + 550 + 450 + 450 + 343 + 329 + 438 + 395 + 441 + 253 + 377 Excluding grant-aid shipments + 345 + 95 + 250 + 207 + 114 + 93 + 70 + 48 + 41 + 184 + 79 + 52 + 69 + 125 + 204 + 179 + 226 + 84 + 1 93 ! Includes shipments under the vnrious i r rant.-aid programs; for some of those programs separate data are not available. 5 lin'iniiinj' w i t h 1950, figures include only Department of Defense shipments of jrrant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Mutual Security I'rut'f am. Shipments for the first f, months of the proi-ram (July-Decemher 1950) amounted to 282 million dollars. P r e l i m i n a r y estininIcs. O0 N'oTK.- --Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Defense. PURCHASING POWER NATIONAL INCOME Preliminary estimates indicate a further drop in compensation of employees in the first quarter of 1954 as employment and hours continued downward. Proprietors' income also decreased while net interest was unchanged. Insufficient data account for the absence of profit estimates. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 350 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES TOTAL NATIONAL INCOME- xCORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY'S :xlMi:x'.V. ALU AT 10.N. ADJUSTMENT #££: >:p 250 . . - . . I N T E R E S T : : : : : : :"F>RbPRiET6RS'' AND::X:::::::::::: •x-:. RENTAL INCOME •:•:'•:':': :•:•:•<:':•::£ 200 1939 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1951 •^ PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED 5 i uMuMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Total national income Period 1939 1944 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952. 1953 __ ._ 72 5 183. 8 180.3 198. 7 223. 5 216.3 240. 6 278.4 291.6 1 307. 7 Compensation of employee* Proprietors1 (business, professional, farm) and rental Income 47 8 121. 2 117. 1 128. 0 140. 2 139. 9 153. 4 178. 9 193. 2 207. 6 14. 7 35. 5 42. n 42.4 47. 3 42. 1 45. -1 50. 7 51. 2 •19. 11 ( 'nrpcirnt v profits and inventory V f t l l iHtion adjustment Net interest I'ntal 4. 2 a. i 2.9 8. 5 4, 3 5. 0 5. 7 (>. 4 7. 0 7.8 5. 8 24. 0 18. 3 24.7 31. 7 29.2 36.0 42. 4 40.2 1 42. 4 Profits before taxes Inventory valuation adjustment 6.5 24.3 23.5 30.5 33.8 27. 1 41.0 43.7 39.2 143.2 -0.7*> -£ 2 -5.8 -2. 1 +2. 1 -5.0 -1.3 + 1.0 -.8 37.0 40.3 44.6 45.9 43.3 (2) (2) +.7 + 1.4 -.8 -.6 -2.6 + 1.0 + .3 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1952: Third quarter Fourth quarter 1953: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter .. Fourth quarter 1954: First quarter l 290,4 301.4 306.7 310.7 308. 1 2 () (2) 194. 1 201. 3 204. 5 208. 0 210. 4 207. 7 204. 9 1 Preliminary estimates bv Council of Economic Advisers. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. 51. 5 51. 1 50. 8 49. 7 49. 1 50. 0 49. 2 2 7. 1 7.4 7.6 7.7 7.9 8. 1 8. 1 37.7 41.7 43.8 45.2 40.7 2 () (2) Not available. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). ni CORPORATE PROFITS Third quarter 1953 aggregate corporate profits, both before and after taxes, are estimated to have been below those in the second quarter. Although profits probably declined further in the fourth quarter, the 1953 total is estimated to have been above that for 1952. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 60 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 60 20 1939 1949 1950 1951 1952 1951 1953 1954 •^NO ALLOWANCE FOR INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Corporate profits before taxes Period 1939 1944 1946. 1947 1948 1949 . 1950. 1951. _ 1952 l 1953 _ . - _ _ _ - _. Corporate tax liability Corporate profits after taxes Total 5.0 10. 8 13.9 18.5 20.7 16.3 22.7 20. 1 18.6 19.6 Dividend payments Undistributed profits 1.2 6. 1 8. 1 12.0 13.5 8.8 13.6 10.9 9.5 10.3 6. 5 24. 3 23.5 30.5 33.8 27.1 41.0 43.7 39.2 43. 2 1.5 13.5 9.6 11.9 13. 0 10.8 18.2 23.6 20. 6 23.6 41.5 38.2 37.0 40.3 21.8 20. 1 19. 4 21.2 19.7 18.0 17.5 19. 1 9. 1 9. 1 9.1 9. 1 10.6 8.9 8.4 10.0 44.6 45.9 43.3 24.4 25.0 23. 6 20.3 20.8 19.6 9.2 9.4 9.6 11. 1 11.4 10.0 3.8 4.7 5. 8 6.6 7 2 7.5 9. 1 9.2 9. 1 2 9. 3 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1952: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter 1953: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter „ _- a i Preliminary estimates. Dividend payments during fourth quarter were $9.4 billion. NOTE.—See p. 21 for profits before taxes and inventory valuation adjustment. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source; Department of Commerce. 22 PERSONAL INCOME Personal income in February was at an annual rate of $283 billion (seasonally adjusted), or $% billion less than in January. Wages and salaries declined slightly further, primarily reflecting reductions in durable goods manufacturinS industries. Other types of personal income showed little change. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS .300 250 200 100 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total personal ID come Period 1939 1944 1948 1949.— 1950 1951 — 1952 1953 - 72. 6 165.9 209.5 205. 9 226.7 254. 3 269.7 284.5 1953: February March April _ J May_. T June July August September October . November December 1954* January 3 February 281.0 283.6 282. 7 284.7 286. 3 287. 5 287.0 286.3 287.2 285. 9 284. 6 283.7 282. 9 _ _ . - _- 1954 1951 [Billions of dollars] Proprietors' income Labor income Dividends (salaries, Business, wages, and professional, and personal Farm other labor interest and rental income)1 income 5 10.2 45.7 9. 2 4.5 10.6 11. 8 23.7 116. 2 134. 9 16.0 29.6 17. 7 17. 1 134.2 29.3 12.8 32.1 13.3 19.6 146.5 35. 2 20. 5 15. 5 170. 7 36. 1 14.8 21.0 184.9 12.4 37. 2 22. 2 198. 9 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 37.2 12. 8 196. 0 37.3 13. 2 197.5 37. 1 12. 1 197.9 37.3 199. 3 12. 5 37.2 200. 7 12.6 202. 4 37.3 11.9 202.2 11.4 37.3 37.4 201. 1 11. 4 37.3 11.9 200. 7 12.2 37. 6 199. 6 197. 6 37.5 12.5 37. 2 196.3 12.4 195.3 37.3 12.3 21.7 21. 9 22. 0 22. 1 22. 3 22.4 22.5 22. 7 22.8 22. 7 22. 7 23. 0 23. 1 * Excludes social insurance contributions of employees and, beginning January 1952, of self-employed persons. 2 Includes $2.7 billion National Service Life Insurance dividend, most of which was paid in the first half of the year. s Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department o! Commerce. Transfer payments 3.0 3.6 11.3 12.4 > 15. 1 12.5 12. 9 13.7 13.3 13.7 13. 6 13.5 13. 5 13.5 13.6 13. 6 14.5 13.8 14.3 14. 7 15.0 23 CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING Personal disposable income showed little change in the first quarter of 1954. Consumer spending on durable goods declined, while spending on services increased. Total consumption expenditures were maintained at the fourth quarter level. Personal saving is estimated at 7.7 percent of disposable income, according to preliminary data. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 300 300 250 ___ ,00 IOO 1941 1943 1945 1947 1954 1951 -^PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES. -^PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED ) Disposable persona] income l Period COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Less: Personal consumption expenditures Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Equals: Personal net saving Net saving as percent of disposable income Billions of dollars 1939 1941 1942 1944 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 . 1951 1952 1953 - - _ ... ... ... .. _. ... _. ... 1952: Third quarter Fourth quarter 1953: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1954: First quarter 2 __ 1 . . . _ _ __ 70.2 92.0 116. 7 147. 0 158. 9 169. 5 188.4 187. 2 205.8 225. 0 235. 0 247. 9 67. 5 82. 3 91.2 111. 6 146.9 165. 6 177.9 180. 6 194 6 208. 1 218. 1 229. 8 25. 5 28. 5 31. 2 37.4 44. 5 49. 1 54. 1 57. 5 62. 7 67.4 72. 7 78.4 2.7 9. 8 25.6 35.4 12.0 3.9 10.5 6. 7 11. 3 16.9 16. 9 18. 1 38 10.7 21.9 24. 1 7. 6 2. 3 5. 6 3. 6 5. 5 7. 5 7.2 7.3 236. 6 243. 0 245. 4 247. 7 249. 8 249. 3 249. 1 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 118. 7 217. 2 25. 1 73. 3 224.4 28.2 75. 1 121. 1 121. 2 227. 7 30.2 76. 3 230. 4 30. 7 77. 6 122. 1 30.4 79. 2 121.3 231. 0 120. 4 230.0 29. 1 80. 5 120.4 28. 2 230. 0 81. 4 19. 4 18. 6 17. 7 17. 2 18. 8 19. 3 19. 1 8. 2 7.7 7.2 6. 9 7. 5 7. 7 7. 7 Income less taxes. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. 24 6.7 9.8 7. 1 7. 1 16. 6 21.4 22. 9 23.8 29.2 27.3 26. 7 30. 1 2 35. 3 44.0 52.9 67. 1 85.8 95. 1 100. 9 99.2 102. 6 113. 4 118.8 121. 2 Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE INCOME Per capita disposable income dropped very slightly in the first quarter of 1954, according to preliminary estimates DOLLARS 2,000 ANNUAL AVERAGES DOLLARS 2,000 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES i953 PRICES-1' 1,500 1,500 CURRENT PRICES 1,000 1,000 500 I/ I 1943 1941 1945 1947 1949 1951 1953 1951 1952 j'SEE NOTE Z ON TABLE BELOW. ^PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total disposable personal Fer capita disposable personal income (dollars)1 income (billions of dollars)1 Period Current prices 1939 1941 1942 1944 1946 1947 19481949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1953 . ___ ... .. ,_ 70. 2 92.0 116. 7 147.0 158.9 169. 5 188.4 187.2 205.8 225.0 235. 0 247. 9 1953 prices a 139. 8 171. 3 193. 2 212. 7 206. 6 200. 6 211. 4 212.5 228. 9 232. 7 238. 1 247.9 Current prices 536 690 865 1,062 1, 124 1, 176 1,285 1,255 1,357 1,458 1,497 1,553 1953 prices 2 1,067 1, 284 1,432 1,537 1, 461 1, 392 1, 442 1, 424 1,509 1,508 1, 516 1, 553 Population (thousands) 3 131, 028 133, 402 134,860 138, 397 141, 389 144, 126 146, 631 149, 188 151, 683 154, 360 157, 022 159, 629 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1952: Third quarter Fourth quarter 236. 6 243.0 239.2 245.0 1,503 1,537 1,520 1,550 157,388 158, 109 1953: First quarter Second quarter. Third quarter Fourth quarter 245.4 247.7 249.8 249.3 247. 6 248.4 248. 6 247.8 1,546 1,555 1,561 1,551 1,560 1,559 1,554 1,542 158, 714 159, 306 160, 022 160, 764 1954: First Quarter 4 249. 1 247. 4 1. 543 1. 532 161, 436 1 Income less taxes. * Dollar estimates in current prices divided by an over-all implicit price index for personal consumption expenditures. This price index is based on Department of Commerce data, shifted from a 1939 base. «Ineiodins armed forces overseas, Annual data as of July 1; quarterly data centered in the middle of the period, interpolated from monthly figures. < Preliminary estimates. Sources: Department of Commerce and Council of Economic Advisers. 25 FARM INCOME Farmers* income from marketings in February, dropping seasonally to $1.9 billion, was about 1 percent greater than in February 1953. For the first 2 months of this year, farmers have received $4.6 billion from cash marketings and Government payments, or about 3 percent less than during the same period of 1953. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 5 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 9 1954 M INCOME IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY PARITY INDEX ON BASE 1953*100. NOTE: FARM INCOME INCLUDES CASH RECEIPTS FROM MARKETINGS AND GOVERNMENT PAYMENTS. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. Parity index Farm income Farm income (prices paid, (millions of (millions of Interest, taxes, current 1953 dollars) * and wage rates) dollars) l 1953 = 100 Period 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average 1951 monthly average 1952 monthlv average 1953 monthly average 1953; January February March- . . Apri 1 May. June Julv August September October November. . December 1954: January..3 February 26 - . - .. - .... ..... . .. . - - „ .... ...... .. - - . . - - .. - ... - - COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS . 715 1,345 1,763 2, 111 2, 539 2, 344 2,384 2,757 2,721 2, 599 2, 803 1,918 2, 119 2,020 2,009 2, 156 2, 404 2,461 3, 169 3, 700 3, 443 2, 986 2, 649 1, 942 » Converted from the reported base, 1910-14«= 100, to the base 1953=100. * Farm income in current dollars divided by parity index on base 1953—100. NOTE.—Farm income includes cash receipts from marketings and Government paymenti. 44 54 65 75 93 90 92 101 103 100 102 101 101 100 100 99 100 100 99 99 99 100 101 101 1, 625 2,491 2,712 2,815 2,730 2, 604 2, 591 2,730 2, 642 2,599 2,748 1,899 2,098 2,020 2,009 2, 178 2,404 2,461 3,201 3, 737 3,478 2,986 2,623 1,923 • Preliminary estimates. Source: Department of Agriculture. CREDIT, MONEY, AND FEDERAL FINANCE BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS Bank loans, which declined more than seasonally in January, rose $400 million in February. Investment in U. S. Government securities dropped $1.1 billion while holdings of other securities increased $300 million. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 175 175 1939 1945 1950 1951 ' 1953 END OF MONTH END OF YEAR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS End of period 1939 > 1945 1947 1949 1950 .... 1951 .. 1952 1953 1953: January February — March _ April May . . June. July August _. September October»- November-. December 1954: January 2 February -March 2 [Billions of dollars] Ail commercial banks Investments Total loans and investments 40.7 124. 0 116.3 120.2 126.7 132.6 141.6 146.4 140.8 140. 1 140.0 138.5 138. 1 138.0 143.2 143. 1 143. 0 143.9 145.5 146.4 145. 2 144. 8 Loans 17.2 26. 1 38. 1 43.0 52.2 57.7 64.2 68.3 63.9 64. 1 65.2 65.3 65.4 65.0 65.6 66.0 66. 3 67. 1 67.3 68.3 66.5 66. 9 Total 23.4 97.9 78.2 77.2 74.4 74.9 77.5 78. 1 76. 9 76.0 74.8 73.2 72.7 72.9 77.6 77. 1 76.7 76.8 78. 2 78. 1 78.7 77. 9 U.S. Government securities 16. 3 90. 6 69.2 67. 0 62. 0 61.5 63. 3 63.6 62.8 61.9 60.5 58.9 58.3 58.6 63.2 62.6 62. 2 62.3 63.7 63.6 64. 1 63.0 Other securities Weekly reporting member banks— business loans * 7. 1 7.3 9.0 10.2 12.4 13.3 14. 1 14.6 14.2 14. 1 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.3 14.5 14 5 14. 5 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.9 i Commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans; revised series beginning January 1952. * Preliminary estimates. NOTB.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 4.7 7.2 14.7 13.9 17.9 21.6 23.4 23.4 23.0 22. 9 23.3 23. 1 22. 8 22.8 22.6 22.9 23. 1 23.3 23.2 23.4 22. 5 22. 4 22.8 27 CONSUMER CREDIT Consumer credit outstanding decreased $647 million in February and amounted to $27.5 billion at the end of the month. Seasonal factors accounted for part of the decline in instalment credit and most of the decline in noninstalment credit, particularly charge accounts. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 30 1939 1945 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 30 1950 1951 END OF YEAR 1952 1953 1953 END OF MONTH COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. | Millions of dollars) Total consumer credit outstanding End of period 1939 1945 1950 1951 1952 1953 .._ _ 1953: January February March April Mav -~ June July August September October November _ December 1951: January February - - - - -- Noninstalment credit Instalment credit Total AutomobileJ paper Other Repair and consumer moderni- Personal zation loans goods loans 2 paper l 1,088 298 1,620 1,009 182 816 2,805 1,006 4,337 3, 235 1,090 4,270 3,851 1,406 5,328 4,307 1, 606 5,605 7,222 5,665 20, 813 21,468 25, 827 28, 896 4,503 2,462 14, 490 14, 837 18, 684 21, 807 1,497 455 6,342 6,242 8,099 10, 289 25, 674 25, 504 25, 946 26, 455 27, 056 27,411 27, 581 27, 810 27, 979 28, 166 28, 252 28, 896 18, 851 18, 982 19, 391 19, 767 20, 213 20, 635 21, 004 21, 218 21, 347 21, 486 21, 586 21, 807 8,273 8, 480 8,799 9, 111 9,432 9, 692 9,973 10, 136 10, 232 10, 337 10, 358 10, 289 5,288 5, 208 5,217 5, 217 5,272 5,333 5, 351 5,362 5, 352 5,366 5, 406 5,605 1,403 1,404 1,416 1, 435 1,462 1,493 1,516 1, 534 1,562 1,585 1, 604 1,606 28, 125 27, 478 21, 444 21, 151 10, 084 93 915 5,495 5,377 1,587 1,570 Total Charge accounts 2,719 3,203 6,323 6,631 7, 143 7,089 1,414 1,612 3,006 3,096 3,342 3,249 1,305 1,591 3,317 3,535 3,801 3,840 3,887 3, 890 3,959 4, 004 4, 047 4, 117 4, 164 4, 186 4, 201 4, 198 4,218 4,307 6,823 6, 522 6,555 6,688 6,843 6,776 6, 577 6,592 6, 632 6,680 6, 666 7,089 2,975 2,678 2,613 2,682 2,763 2,781 2,705 2, 668 2,716 2,811 2,840 3,249 3,848 3,844 3, 942 4,006 4,080 3,995 3,872 3, 924 3,916 3,869 3,826 3,840 4,278 4,289 6, 681 6,327 2,893 2,550 3,788 3,777 > Includes all consumer credit extended for the purpose of purchasing automobiles and other consumer goods and secured by the items purchased. J Includes only such loans held by financial institutions; those held by retail outlets are included in "other consumer goods paper." * BinpU'-paymeni loans and service credit. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. NUTK.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. 28 Other » BOND YIELDS AND Yields on 3-month Treasury bills, which had decreased during February, leveled off in March. Yields on both Treasury and corporate bonds continued to drop during the early part of March, then leveled off. Commercial paper rates were again unchanged from the rate of 2 percent reached late in January. PERCENT PER ANNUM 3.5 PERCENT PER ANNUM 3.5 1954 1949 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. [Percent per a n n u m ] U. S. Government security yields Period 1939 1946 _ 1950 1951 1952 _ 1953 1953: March April May June July. August September _ . October November December __ 1954: January February March Week ended: 1954: March 6 April 13 20 27 3_ 10 . 3-month Treasury bills » 0. 023 .375 1. 218 1. 552 1. 766 1. 931 2. 082 2. 177 2.200 2. 231 2. 101 2.088 1. 876 1.402 1. 427 1.630 1.214 .984 1.053 . „_ _ -_ 1.059 1.066 1.056 1.030 1.063 1.013 Taxable bonds 2 Old series3 New series4 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) Prime commercial paper, 4-6 months 0.59 .81 1.45 2. 17 2.33 2.52 2.36 2.44 2.68 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.74 2.55 2.32 2.25 2. 13 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2. 19 2. 32 2. 57 2.68 2. 93 2.89 2. 97 3.09 3.09 2. 99 3.00 2. 97 2.83 2.85 2.79 2.68 2.60 2.51 3.26 3.29 3. 25 3.22 3. 19 3. 06 3. 04 2.96 2.90 2.85 2.73 3. 01 2.53 2.62 2.86 2.96 3.20 3. 12 3.23 3.34 3.40 3. 28 3.24 3.29 3. 16 3. 11 3. 13 3.06 2.95 2.86 2.53 2.52 2.49 2. 50 2.50 2.45 2. 72 2.74 2.73 2.74 2. 73 2.70 2.89 2.86 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 3. 16 z i Rate on new issues within period. Bonds in this classification were first issued in March 1941. s 234-percent bonds first callable after 12 years. Prior to April 1952, only bonds due or callable after 15 years were included. onds of 1978-83, issued May 1,1953. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 29 MONEY SUPPLY The decline in demand deposits in February reflected a seasonal transfer of funds from private to U. S. Government accounts, as well as bank credit contraction. Time deposits continued to increase. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 225 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 225 TOTAL EXCLUDING U.S. GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS 19.41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 END OF YEAR S O N D 51 52 53 J F M A M J J A S 1953 O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 1954 END OF MONTH SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM End of period 1939 . ... 1945 1946 — 1948 1949 — 1950 ... 1951 . 1952 _.__ 1953 1953: January February March . April ... M ay June July August . September October November December 1954: January 4 February 30 Total deposits and currency 64.7 176.4 167.5 172.7 173.9 180.6 189.8 200. 4 205.8 198.3 197.4 196.9 195.4 195.3 196.6 201.3 201. 1 201.1 201.7 203.6 205.8 203.5 202. 5 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Total excluding U. S. Government deposits U.S. (privately held money supply) Government Demand Currency Time deposits * deposits Total outside deposits8 adjusted * banks 27.1 6.4 29.8 63.3 1.5 48.5 75.9 150. 8 26.5 25.6 54.0 83.3 164.0 26.7 3.5 57.5 169. 1 85.5 26. 1 3.6 58.6 85.8 169.8 25.4 4. 1 59.2 176.9 25.4 92. 3 3.7 61.4 98.2 186.0 26.3 3.9 101. 5 65.8 27.5 1948 5.6 70.1 103.3 27.8 201.3 4.5 66. 1 100.5 193.3 26.8 5.0 66.4 26.9 98.3 191.6 5.8 97.4 191.0 66.8 26.9 5.8 67.2 192.2 98.0 27.0 3.2 192. 1 97.5 67.6 27.0 3.3 96.9 27.4 192.6 68.3 4. 1 97.4 27.2 68.4 193.0 8.3 97.5 193.4 27.3 68.7 7.7 69. 1 27.5 97.7 194.3 6.8 69. 6 27.4 100. 3 197.3 4.4 197.4 27.9 69.3 100. 2 6.2 70. 1 201.3 103. 3 27.8 4.5 102. 4 27.0 199.9 70.5 3.6 26. 9 99. 7 70. 9 197.5 5.0 1 Includes U. S. Government deposits at Federal Reserve banks and commercial and savings banks, and U. S. Treasurer's time deposits) open account. 3 Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection. * Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System, but excludes interbank deposits. * Preliminary estimates. Source: Board of Governonfof the Federal Reierve Syitem. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES Budget expenditures for the first 8 months of the fiscal year 1954 totaled $44.4 billion, or about $2 billion less than in the corresponding period of fiscal 1953. Cumulative budget receipts of $36.2 billion were almost $1K billion lower than a year ago. As a result, the cumulative deficit of $8.2 billion for this fiscal year compares with $8.7 billion for the same period last year. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TOTAL BUDGET EXPENDITURES NET BUDGET RECEIPTS 75 50 25 25 I950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1952 1955 HO NATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAMS 1953 1954 1955 BUDGET SURPLUS {+} OR DEFICIT {-) (MAGNIFIED SCALE) 75 FIRST 8 MONTHS (JULY-FEBRUARY) +5 50 25 -5 -10 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1954 1950 SOURCES: TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND BUREAU OF THE BUDGET. Period Actual: Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal 1955 FISCAL YEARS * ESTIMATED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] surplus (+) Budget expenditures Net budget receipts Budget or deficit (— ) Public Total National security * debt CumulaCumulaTotal for tive fiscal Total for tive fiscal (end of8 CumulaCumulaperiod) Total for tive fiscal Total for tive fiscal period year totals period year totals period year totals period year totals 95.1 39.0 33. 1 39.6 44. 1 65.4 74.3 75.8 14.4 11.7 13.0 22.3 43.8 50.3 43.6 39.8 41.5 36.5 47.6 61.4 64.8 -51.4 -3. 1 +3.5 -4.0 -9.5 257. 4 255. 3 259. 2 266.1 Estimated: Fiscal vear 1954 Fiscal year 1955 70.9 65.6 48.7 44.9 67.6 62.6 -3.3 -2.9 209. 8 273. 1 Actual: 1953" February33 1954' February 5.4 4.7 year 1944 vear 1947 year 1948 year 1950 year 1951 year 19523 - year 1953 46.3 44.4 3.6 3.6 30.8 30.9 4.9 5.4 202. 6 258.4 252.4 +.8 +a4 37.6 36.2 "~"~ . O + .7 — 8, 7 ~S. 2 1>07. G •J7-1. «J » Revised to include the items classified as "national security" in The Budget of The United States Government for the Fiscal Year Ending Jnnr w, m*/>. TIi««? expenditure items are: Military services, foreign military assistance, development and control of atomic energy, and allocation of critical ami !;tmn<t:u i?miriint:.. > Includes guaranteed securities, except those held by the Treasury. Not all of total shown is subject to statutory debt limitation. s Beginning with February 1954, the reporting of budget receipts and expenditures has been changed to a basis consistent with tlmt um-tl In i » t r f m t i u K h»«U:« estimates. For comparative purposes, figures for fiscal 1953 are shown on a like basis. NOTE.—Data for earlier months have not been published by the Treasury Department. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget. 31 FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC The excess of cash payments over cash receipts in the fourth quarter of 1953 was $4*6 billion, or slightly lower than in the corresponding quarter of 1952. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 I 1950 £ 1951 3 4 I I I t 1952 3 4 1 I 1 2 1953 3 4 -EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS- -EXCESS OF CASH PAYMENTS- 2 1950 3 e 3 1952 1951 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCES: BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS of dollars! Calendar year Calendar year total; 1946 — ... —— . 1947 1948 ... ... 1949.. 1950 1951 ._ 1952 1953 Quarterly totals, not adjusted for seasonal variation: 1951: Third quarter Fourth quarter . . 1952: First quarter Second quarter _ _ _ ._ _ « Third quarter Fourth quarter .. _.__ . 1953: First quarter Second quarter. Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . : .. Excess of receipts (+) or payments (— ) Federal cash receipts from the public Federal cash payments to the public 41, 441 44, 282 44, 922 41, 346 42, 419 59, 278 71. 339 70, 382 41, 399 38, 616 36, 897 42, 642 41, 969 58, 034 72, 980 76, 541 +42 + 5, 666 + 8, 027 — 1, 295 + 450 + 1,244 — 1, 641 -6, 159 13, 993 12, 770 21, 874 19, 389 15, 354 14, 722 15, 270 17, 064 16, 921 18, 701 17, 921 19, 436 — 1,277 -4, 295 +4, 953 + 688 -2, 567 -4, 715 22, 539 18, 674 15, 502 13, 667 18, 166 21, 049 19, 015 18,311 + 4, 373 — 2, 375 — 3, 513 -4, 644 NOTI.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Souzeei: Bureau of the Budget and Treasury Department. 32 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U. S. Government Printing Office, Washington 26, D. C. Price 20 cents per copy; $2.00 per year; $2.50 foreign. If. S. GOVERNMENT P R I N T I N G OFFICE: 1354