Full text of Economic Indicators : April 1949

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Joint Committee Print

Economic Indicators
APRIL 1949
Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report




by the Council of Economic Advisers
and printed for the use of
the Joint Committee on the Economic Report

UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1949

JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming, Chairman
EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey, Vice Chairman
FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania

WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas

JOHN SPARKMAN, Alabama
PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois

WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio
FRANK BUCHANAN, Pennsylvania
JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan
ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania

ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio
RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont
ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah

CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts
FRED E. BERQUIST, Acting Staff Director
JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk
WILLIAM H. MOORE, Economist

To the Members of Congress:

As has been stated in previous issues of Economic Indicators, from the time the Joint Committee on the Economic Report was established its members realized that
one of its basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture
of current economic trends and developments.
Fortunately, the Joint Committee finds that Economic
Indicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiled
monthly by the Council of Economic Advisers, admirably
fills this need. While this material was prepared primarily for the use of the President, the Council and other
officials in the executive offices, the Council has made it
available to the Joint Committee.
Other Members of Congress have also expressed an
interest in being able to obtain a quick picture of current
economic facts without having to go through voluminous and specialized documents. In addition,
businessmen, farm leaders, labor organizations, and representatives of the press and radio have indicated their


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

desire for this information. Since nothing contained
in these charts and tables is of a confidential nature they
have urged that the material be made available to the
general public.
Accordingly, the Joint Committee has, since last July,
provided the Congress and the public with a limited
number of copies of Economic Indicators as a Committee
print pending final action on authorizing the publication on a more permanent basis. Since such legislation
is still under consideration, the Committee is continuing
to issue the report on a monthly basis.
Comments or suggestions with respect to possible
improvements in this presentation will always be
welcome.

Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report.

Letter of Transmitted
Hon. JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Chairman,
Joint Committee on the Economic Report,
United States Congress, Washington, D. C.
DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the
Joint Committee on the Economic Report in your plans to make Economic Indicators
available to the Congress as a whole and to the general public.
In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has
found it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts
showing current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a better
position to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the
improvement and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services.
We have realized, of course, that this material has a potential usefulness not only to
the President, the Council and the executive departments, but also to the Congress.
Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly
by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and consumer organizations with
whom we regularly consult.
We believe the Joint Committee will perform a service of real value by giving wide
circulation to this material.
Sincerely yours,




Chairman.

*

/

Vice Chairman.

111

Contents
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
The Nation's Economic Budget

Page

1

PRICES
Consumers' Prices
Wholesale Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
Stock Prices

2
3
4
5

EMPLOYMENT
Labor Force
Employment in Business and Government
Average Weekly Hours
Work Stoppages

6
7
8
9

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production
Production of Selected Durable Manufactures
Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures
Weekly Production—Selected Indicators
New Construction
New Housing Starts
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
New Corporate Security Issues
Inventories and Sales
Merchandise Exports and Imports

10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

PURCHASING POWER
National Income
Corporate Profits
Personal Income
Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving
Per Capita Income
Average Hourly Earnings
Average Weekly Earnings
Farm Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Consumer Credit

20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29

MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
Bank Loans and Investments
Money Supply
Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public


IV


30
31
32

THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
Consumers' expenditures lagged behind the rise in income from the 1st half to the 2nd half of 1948
The Government surplus declined sharply as receipts fell and payments rose.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

TOTAL (GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT)
1948, FIRST HALF

1948, SECOND HALF

1948, FIRST HALF

(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

CONSUMERS

Transfer payments .

EXCESS OF
EXPENDITURES (-), RECEIPTS(+)
0
4"77\ CONSUMER
7/A
SAVING

BUSINESS
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
INTERNATIONAL
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL,STATE AND LOCAL)
CASH
SURPLUS
50.2
</

^

^Transfer payments

1948, SECOND HALF

(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS")

CONSUMERS
CONSUMER
SAVING

EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
INTERNATIONAL
EXCESS OF
RECEIPTS

— .1

GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL,STATE AND LOCAL)
CASH
SURPLUS

_—
^•Transfer p ayments
2

3/

ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED.
T R A N S F E R P A Y M E N T S ARE INCLUDED IN R E C E I P T S OR E X P E N D I T U R E S OF THE S E P A R A T E A C C O U N T S BUT NOT
IN THE T O T A L G R O S S N A T I O N A L PRODUCT.
INCLUDES AN A D J U S T M E N T OF + $ 2 . 8 BILLION IN FIRST HALF AND - $ 2 . 3 B I L L I O N IN SECOND HALF.
SOURCE: SEE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JANUARY 1949, APPENDIX A.




PRICES
CONSUMERS' PRICES
Consumers1 prices declined in February, primarily because of a drop in food prices. Rents continued slowly
upward. The index for all items, after falling for 5 consecutive months, was 3.2 percent below the
August-September peak.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

200

180

160

1941

1940

1942

1943

1944

1945

1946

1947

1948

1949

*ACSO INCLUDES HOUSEFURNISHINGS, FUEL, ELECTRICITY, REFRIGERATION, ANf MlSrEU-ANEuUS GL OCS AND SERVICES, NOT SHOWN ON CH,
COUNCIL OF E C O N O M I C A D V I S E R S

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

[1935-39=100]
Period

1939 monthly average
_ _
1940 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average _
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average.
1946 monthly average
_ _
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: February
March.
April
May. _ _ _
__
June__
July
_ _
August
September.
_ _ _ _ _
October
November
December _
1949: January __
February

All items

99.4
100. 2
105. 2
116. 5
123. 6
125. 5
128. 4
139. 3
159. 2
171. 2
167 5
166. 9
169 3
170. 5
171. 7
173. 7
174. 5
174. 5
173. 6
172 2
171. 4
170. 9
169. 0

Food

Apparel

95. 2
96. 6
105. 5
123. 9
138. 0
136. 1
139. 1
159. 6
193. 8
210. 2
204 7
202. 3
207. 9
210. 9
214. 1
216. 8
216. 6
215. 2
211. 5
207. 5
205. 0
204. 8
199. 7

NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities.

 Source: Department of Labor.


100. 5
101. 7
106 3
124. 2
129. 7
138. 8
145. 9
160. 2
185. 8
198 0
195 1
196. 3
196. 4
197. 5
196 9
197. 1
199. 7
201. 0
201. 6
201 4
200. 4
196. 5
195. 1

Rent

104. 3
104. 6
106 2
108. 5
108. 0
108. 2
108. 3
108. 6
111. 2
117. 4
116. 0
116. 3
116 3
116. 7
117. 0
117. 3
117. 7
118. 5
118. 7
118 8
119. 5
119. 7
119. 9

Fuel, electricity, and
refrigeration

House furnishings

99. 0
99. 7
102 2
105. 4
107. 7
109. 8
110. 3
112. 4
121. 1
133 9
130 0
130. 3
130 7
131. 8
132 6
134. 8
136 8
137. 3
137. 8
137 9
137. 8
138. 2
138 8

101. 3
100. 5
107. 3
122. 2
125. 6
136. 4
145. 8
159. 2
184. 4
195. 8
193. 0
194. 9
194. 7
193. 6
194. 8
195. 9
196. 3
198. 1
198. 8
198 7
198. 6
196. 5
195 6

Miscellaneous
100. 7
101. 1
104. 0
110. 9
115. 8
121. 3
124. 1
128. 8
139. 9
149. 9
146. 4
146. 2
147. 8
147. 5
147. 5
150. 8
152. 4
152. 7
153. 7
153. 9
154. 0
154 1
154 1

WHOLESALE PRICES
Wholesale prices on the average during March moved within a narrow range, Industrial prices drifted
downward, Farm and food prices declined moderately after recovering the early February drop,
PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1926 A V E R A G E

220

220

200

180

160

OTHER THAN FARM
PRODUCTS AND FOODS

I

I

I

I

I

i

t

120

SOURCE: D E P A R T M E N T O F L A B O R .
ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

[1926=100]
All commodities

Period
1941 monthly average _
1942 monthly average
1946 monthly average
June
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: February _ _ _
March _ _ _
_
April _

_ _
_ _
_

May

June
_ _
July
August
September. _
_
October
November
December
1949: January
February
Week ended:
Mar 1
8 _ .

_
_

87. 3
98. 8
121. 1
112. 9
152. 1
165. 0
160. 9
161. 4
162. 8
163 9
166. 2
168. 7
169. 5
168. 7
165. 2
164. 0
162. 3
160. 6
158 1

Farm products
82. 4
105 9
148. 9
140. 1
181. 2
188. 3
185. 3
186. 0
186. 7
189 1
196. 0
195. 2
191. 0
189. 9
183. 5
180. 8
177. 3
172. 5
168. 3

Foods
82. 7
99. 6
130. 7
112. 9
168. 7
179. 1
172. 4
173. 8
176. 7
177. 4
181. 4
188. 3
189. 5
186. 9
178. 2
174. 3
170. 2
165. 8
161. 5

Other than
farm and
foods
89.0
95. 5
109. 5
105. 6
135. 2
150. 7
147. 6
147. 7
148. 7
149. 1
149. 5
151. 1
153. 1
153. 3
153. 1
153. 5
153. 0
152. 9
151. 4

151. 4
165. 8
171 0
159 0
151. 4
163. 4
172. 3
158. 9
151. 2
162. 9
170. 6
15
158 4
150. 8
163. 2
22
170. 8
158. 2
150. 7
162. 9
29
170. 8
158 1
149. 7
164. 7
Apr. 5
171. 5
158.0
NOTE.—The weekly index presented here is a revised index which permits direct comparison with the
monthly index. It is not comparable with the old weekly index which does not permit such a comparison.
Since chart was prepared, March data have been revised and April 5 data became available.
Source: Department of Labor.




PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Farm prices rose 1 percent ( 3 index points) from February 15 to March 15, reversing 7 months of continuous
decline. The rise reflected higher prices of meat animals and some recovery of grains toward support
levels.
PERCE NT

OF 1910-14 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1910-14 AV ERAGE
350

350

MONTHLY AVERAGE
PRICES RECEIVED

«

f.

300

~^ .

300

U-'N
^^\
/

250

/

250

*» +**

PRICEJ5 PAID
(INCL. INTE REST, TAXES)

S

/

\*

200

200

150

,/>^

100

^~——'
/ s ^~—^

^**^

150

- S * - . - ^ - -

^i>*^/^S^-*- +^+*

J^s^

100

PARITY ' RATIO*

50

5O

I

0

1939

1
40

1
41

1
42

1
43

1

1

44

II

45

J

46

1

II

M i l l

1

1

1 1

1947

1 1 1

1

1

1

1

J A S O N

D

1948

SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.




1

F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J

1

1 1

1

J F M A M J

1949

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R s

Prices paid by
Prices
(includ- Parity ratio 3
received l farmers
ing interest2
by farmers
and taxes)

Period
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average.
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: February.
March
April
May
June
Julv
August
September
October _
November
December

. -,
_

_
_
_ -.
.

1949: January
February
March
1
August 1909-July
2
1910-14= 100.
3

-

95
124
159
192
195
202
233
278
287
279
283
291
289
295
301
293
290
277
271
268

124
132
150
162
169
172
193
231
249
248
247
249
250
251
251
251
250
249
247
248

77
94
106
119
115
116
120
120
115
112
115
117
116
118
120
117
116
111
110
108

268
258
261

248
245
246

108
105
106

1914=100.

Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, and taxes.
Source: Department of Agriculturee

0

STOCK PRICES
During March, stock prices showed a slightly rising trend ending the month above February level. Stock margins
were cut from 75 to 50 percent in the last week in March.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
175

PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 AVERAGE
175

1 50

100

75

50

1939

40

41

SOURCE : S T A N D A R D

42.

43

44

45

46

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

1947

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

I
D

J F M A M J

1948

AND POOR'S C O R P O R A T I O N .

1949

COUNCIL OF E C O N O M I C A D V I S E R S

[1935-39 = 100]
Combined
index 1

Period
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
OctoberNovember
December
1949: January
February
March

_
-

___

-

_

_ _ _ _ _ _

.

94. 2
80. 0
69.4
91. 9
99.8
121. 5
139. 9
123.0
124. 4
114. 2
116.4
124. 6
130.2
135. 1
131. 9
127. 1
125.7
127. 8
120.4
119. 4
121. 0
117.2
118. 0

Industrials l
94. 8
80. 4
71.3
94. 1
101. 7
123. 3
143. 4
128. 0
130. 6
119. 2
121.8
130. 8
136.9
142. 7
138. 9
133. 5
131. 7
134. 3
126.4
125. 5
127. 3
122. 7
123. 7

Railroads 1
74. 7
70 6
66. 1
88. 7
101. 0
136. 9
143 0
105. 3
114. 8
101. 9
105. 2
115. 2
122. 6
125. 6
124. 7
119. 7
120. 4
120. 9
108. 8
105. 8
105. 9
99. 6
97. 4

Utilities »
98 6
81 0
61. 3
82 1
89. 9
106 1
120 2
102. 9
96. 3
92 6
93. 0
96 2
99. 2
100 6
99.5
97. 3
97. 3
97. 4
94. 2
92. 9
94. 2
94. 4
95. 3

1
Combined index prior to June 23, 1948, was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials,
20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads,
and 31 utilities.
Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation.


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89098—49
2
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

EMPLOYMENT
LABOR FORCE

Unemployment leveled off in March after increasing since October 1948. The labor force was
I million above a year ago with civilian employment up | million, due to' an increase in agricultural
employment.

MILLIONS

OF

PERSONS

MILLIONS OF PERSONS

70

70

30

10
UNEMPLOYMENT— M A G N I F I E D SC,ALl

_

-

-

-

-

1939

_ n i
1944

1946

1947

— 8
- 6

-

4
^—^

^^

1

i

1 1

i

}

1

t

1 \

2

,^~-^^
1

1

1

!

'

i

J

I

! 1 t

1 T I j

)

I

i

I

1

1

1

1

1948

MONTHLY A V E R A G E
SOURCE : DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

Period

[Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over]
Civilians employed
Total labor
force, including
In nonIn agriagricultural
armed
Total
culture
industries
forces

Armed
forces

Unemployed

1941 monthly average
1944 monthly average.-.
1945 monthly average.....
1946 monthly average.. _
1947 monthly average...
1948 monthly average. __

57, 380
65, 890
65, 140
60, 820
61, 608
62, 748

50, 350
53, 960
52, 820
55, 250
58, 027
59, 378

41, 250
45, 010
44, 240
46, 930
49, 761
51, 405

9, 100
8,950
8, 580
8,320
8, 266
7,973

1,470
11, 260
11,280
3, 300
1,440
1,307

5,560
670
1,040
2,270
2, 141
2,064

1948: February
March
April
Mayj
June
July
August
September _ _ _
October
November _
December

61, 004
61, 005
61, 760
61, 660
64, 740
65, 135
64,511
63, 578
63, 166
63, 138
62, 828

57, 139
57, 329
58, 330
58, 660
61, 296
61, 615
61, 245
60, 312
60, 134
59, 893
59, 434

50, 368
50, 482
50, 883
50, 800
51, 899
52, 452
52, 801
51, 590
51, 506
51, 932
52, 059

6, 771
6,847
7,448
7,861
9,396
9, 163
8,444
8,723
8,627
7,961
7,375

1,226
1,236
1,236
1,238
1,261
1,293
1,325
1,366
1,391
1,414
1,453

2,639
2,440
2,193
1,761
2, 184
2,227
1,941
1,899
1,642
1,831
1,941

1949: January
February
March

61, 546
61, 896
62, 305

57, 414
57, 168
57, 647

50, 651
50, 174
50, 254

6,763
6, 993
7,393

1,468
1, 508
1,491

2,664
3, 221
3, 167




NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.

1

1

1

O

EMPLOYMENT IN BUSINESS AND GOVERNMENT
Employment in manufacturing, construction, and trade industries continued to decline in February; employment
in most other industry groups showed little change. The drops resulted from seasonal factors as well as a
continuation of nonseasonal declines in a number of industries.
MILLJONS OF WAGE
AND S A L A R Y W O R K E R S

MILLIONS OF WAGE
AND SALARY WORKERS

12

12

MONTHLY AVERAGE

10
RAD

/

^^

*

^

A

/v

" •>--

JRAB LE
MANl FAC" URINGx

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10

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8

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^X.

NOK DUR *BLE /
MANL FAC1"URING

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6

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/

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s

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^^.

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^

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^
4

4

<^~^^^^~^^

_^-O-

TRANSPO RTA1"ION AND
C UT ILITIES
PU8LI

-""""

o————°*""'

^-CONTRACT CON STRUCTION

^_

-^

^

^»- — — •"—•—••*.

2

2
X

--*"

— --^

^^__-^

1

0
1939

1940

1941

^

-"^

1

1942

1

1943

1944

1
1945

1

v.

ININ

1 1 1 1
J

1946

F

M

A

1 1 1 1 1' 1 1
M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

! ! I 1 1 1 ! !
J

1947

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

1 I 1
S

O

N

1 I 1 I ! 1 1 1 I
D

J

F

M

1948

A

M

J

i 1

0

J A S O N D

1949
Council of Economic

Advis

l

[Thousands of wage and salary workers ]
Durable
manufacturing

Period

1939
1943
1946
1947
1948

monthly
monthly
monthly
monthly
monthly

average
average
average
average
average.

1948: January
February _ _ _ _
March
April.
May .
June
July. .
August
September
October _ _
November
December.,

_ __

__ __
_
____
_

2

1949: January 2
Februarv

_

_

_ __
_ _

___
_

Nondurable
manufacturing

Trade

Transportation and
Finance and Government
(Federal,
public
service
State, local)
utilities

Contract
construction

Mining

357
297
180
055
214

5, 720
7, 084
7,335
7,846
8,063

6, 705
7, 322
8,820
9, 450
9, 746

4, 610
5, 187
6,016
6, 278
6, 400

3,987
6, 049
5, 607
5, 450
5, 658

2, 912
3, 619
4,023
4, 059
4,065

1, 150
1, 567
1,661
1, 921
2,063

845
917
852
911
925

8 256
8 167
8 258
8 164
8 114
8 122
8 165
8 188
8 294
8 318
8 303
8 226

8, Oil
8,016
8, Oil
7,786
7, 778
7, 993
8,007
8,253
8, 403
8, 279
8, 158
8, 058

9, 622
9, 520
9, 598
9, 576
9, 617
9, 670
9, 646
9, 660
9, 733
9, 889
10, 034
10, 381

6, 403
6,420
6, 426
6,472
6,454
6,389
6,399
6,383
6, 379
6, 364
6,364
6, 347

5,498
5,492
5,546
5, 577
5, 624
5, 607
5,604
5, 650
5,801
5, 789
5, 714
5,994

4,020
4,019
4,032
3,974
4,042
4, 105
4, 136
4, 139
4,092
4, 091
4, 066
4,066

1,871
1,731
1,805
1,933
2,052
2, 173
2,219
2,253
2,239
2, 206
2, 162
2,079

922
914
924
817
935
950
922
952
948
941
938
939

8 006
7 889

7, 874
7, 858

9, 625
9. 550

6, 255
6,235

5,761
5,759

3,978
3, 948

1, 906
1, 793

924
925

4
10
7
8
8

1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending
nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this
table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 6) which include
proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and
which
are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
2
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.
jf




AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS
The average work week in manufacturing showed no change in February, according to preliminary data.
While the average of 39.4 hours included significant amounts of overtime, it was one hour under last
year's level.
HOUR S PER WEEK

HOURS PER WEEK

ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES

RETAIL TRADE
50

50
MONTHLY A V E R A G E

45

45

/\

40

-a

^~!?
^1

*"*

«w

40

-^

J
35

35

30

30

25

25

'
0

1

1

40

1

1

1

I

42 44

1

1

1

1

1 1

1 1

46 48

1 1

1 1 1

1

1

1 1 1

1947

1 1 1 1 I

1 1

1949 '

1948

"

0

1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 !

40

42

44

—_
1 I 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1

1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1

1947

1948

1949

46-48

50

\

45

rv.
/ ^
/

40

35

45

vU
V
IF
f ^V^
\

x

J

40

t*u

/*^~

Iff

35

1

30

i i i i i i i i i
40

42

44

46

1 1 1 i 1 1 I 1 1 II

25

48

1947

1 ! 1 1 1 1 i I 1 II

vv*--~-V ^^X

s/

-/

25

0

_

1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION

BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
50

30

—

0

1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 !

1948

_->__—__

", , ,
40

1949

42

11 1 1 I 1 I 1 1 1!

44

46

48

1947

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 II

1

1948

1949

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Hours per week, selected industries]
All manufacturing
industries

Period
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average™
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average 3
1948: January
February
March
April. _
May_
June
July
August
September
October
November3
December
1949: January 33
February

._
.

_ _
.

1
Covers only employees at the site of privately
2
Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
3
Preliminary estimate.
4

37. 7
40. 6
45. 2
43. 4
40 4
40. 3
40 1
40 5
40. 2
40. 4
40. 1
39. 9
40. 2
39. 8
40. 1
39. 8
40. 0
39. 8
40 0
39. 4
39 4

Retail trade
43. 0
42. 5
40. 3
40. 3
40. 5
40. 2
40. 1
39. 8
40. 0
39. 8
39. 8
39. 9
40. 3
40. 8
41. 0
40. 2
39. 7
39. 5
40. 2
40. 0

financed building projects.

Not available. This series is in process of revision.
Source: Department of Labor.

8 for FRASER
Digitized


1 1 1 I 1 1 1 II I I 1

Bituminous
coal mining

2

27. 1
31. 1
43. 4
42. 3
41. 6
40. 6
37. 7
40. 9
38. 7
40. 6
27. 0
40. 3
39. 9
34. 2
39. 4
37. 9
38. 6
37. 1
38 0
38. 4

Private
building
construction l
32. 6
34. 8
39. 6
39. 0
38. 1
37. 6
37.4
37. 2
36.7
37. 1
37. 0
37. 1
37. 9
37.8
37.8
37. 5
37. 4
37. 0
38. 0
(4)

WORK STOPPAGES
Man-days lost because of work stoppages continued at a low level in February.
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE

MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE
I 5

1939

1940

1941

15

1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947

194

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

1949
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S .

Man-days
idle
(thousands)

Period

1939: Monthly average
April— peak month _ _
_
1941: Monthly average
_ -April—peak month
1942: Monthly average
1943: Monthly average
June —peak month
__
1944: Monthly average
_
1945: Monthly average
October—peak month __•
1946: Monthly average
February —peak month
1947: Monthty average,
_ _ _ _ _
April—peak month
1948: Monthly average l

_
_

1,483
4, 902
1,917
7, 113

__

___

348

_

1, 125
4,699

_

727

__
__
_ _ _ _
_

1

1948: August 1
September
October1
November 1J
December
l

1949: January
February *
1

Preliminary^'estimate.



. _
Source: Department of Labor.

__

Man-days idle
as percent of
estimated available working
time
.3
1.0
.3

1. 1

.1
.2
.6
.1
.5
1.4

3, 167
8,610
9, 667
22, 900
2,883
8, 540
2, 833

4.2

2, 100
2, 500
2,000
1, 900

.3
.3
.3
.3

1. 4

.4
1.2

.4

600

.1

800
650

.1
.1

9

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Industrial production in February was about 3 percent below the October-November peak, with the largest
decrease occurring in mining. Preliminary March estimates indicate a further decline as the output of
nondurable goods dropped and mining activities were curtailed by the " t w o - w e e k s holiday1.1

250 -

250

200 -

200

150

100 -

1947

1948

1949

SOURCE:BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

[1935-39 = 100, seasonally adjusted]
Points in total index,
1935-39 average for total = 100

Indexes, 1935-39=100
Manufactures
Total
industrial
Nonduraproduction Total Durable
goods ble goods

Period

Durable
goods

Nondurable goods

Mining

1935-39 monthly average.
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average

100
239
203
170
187
192

100
258
214
177
194
198

100
360
274
192
220
225

100
176
166
165
172
177

100
132
137
134
149
155

38
136
104
73
83
85

47
83
78
77
81
83

15
20
21
21
23
24

1948* February
March _
April
Mav
June.
July
August _
September
October..
November
December

194
191
188
192
192
186
191
192
195
195
192

201
200
195
197
198
192
197
199
202
201
199

226
229
217
221
222
219
223
225
231
229
231

180
177
177
178
179
169
177
178
179
178
173

155
142
147
162
159
153
159
156
158
161
156

86
87
82
84
84
83
84
85
87
87
87

84
83
83
83
84
79
82
83
84
83
81

24
22
22
25
24
23
24
24
24
25
24

191
189
185

198
196
19-1

227
226
225

174
173
170

151
149
131

86
86
85

82
81
80

23
23
20

_ _

1949: January 1
February
March ] _ _ _

10

Manufactures
Mining




Preliminary estimate.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System*

PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE
MANUFACTURES
Iron and steel output continued to increase in February; nonferrous metals also rose; but decreases were
registered for machinery and for lumber.
PERCE NT OF 1935-39 A V E R A G E

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

IRON AND STEEL

LUMBER AND PRODUCTS

250

250

MONTHLY AVERAGE

200

1 50

100

/v
/
s\ /

f

/***** rs/

-'~Vr

200

V

150

"~
^*^""V
^^N-^^-%

^

i i I I.JJL.LJ, L

40

MONTHLY A V E R A G E

11111 111111

II 1 ! 1 i 1 I i i 1

1947

1948

42 44- ,46 48

I 1 1 1 1 1 1 II

II

! 00

1949

/<

1

40

MACHINERY

1

1

1

1

1

i

1

1 II 1 1 1 1 II 1 !

42 44 46 48

1 1 I 1 1 1 I!

1947

1

II 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 I

II

1948

1949

NONFERROUS METALS AND PRODUCTS

350

350

L. 1

V

io.1
300

250

200

1 50

1 00

300

^X

^"^A^X*-^

A

250

I

200

150

f\ . 1 1 ! | | 1 1 |
40 42

l\

^

1 1 1 M 1 1 II 1 1

II II 1 1 ! 1 1 ! 1

1947

1948

44 46 48

1 I I 1 i 1 I II 1 !

100

\^
M
/
I i t i I I i i i
40 42 44 46

1949

_

xs,

48

^^>w*

! 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

M i M 1 i I ii 1

1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1

1947

1948

1949

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE S Y S T E M .

[193,5-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Iron and
steel

Period
1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1 943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly averairc

_
_

194g- January
"February
March

_ _ _
__

_

_ _

--

- -

A nril

May
June
Julv
:

- - -

-

__-

_-_--.-.-_

-

---

_ ___
_-

\U°'USt

September
October
November
December
1949" January 1
February
1

_

--

-

_ _

-

_

Preliminary estimate.

_

---

Lumber and
products

Machinery

Nonferrous
metals and
products

114
147
186
199
208
206
183
150
195
208

106
116
134
134
129
125
109
131
143
145

104
136
221
340
443
439
343
240
276
277

113
139
191
214
267
259
204
157
187
193

203
203
207
177
208
208
201
207
214
221
223
222

155
150
151
145
142
140
142
148
143
147
145
143

285
284
283
275
273
277
269
271
273
277
277
275-

195
199
201
200
196
194
185
186
192
192
187
184

228
^Si-

129
127

268
9,51

184
188


Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.


11

1

PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE
MANUFACTURES
Reduction of operations in the oil and gas industries in February cut the output of petroleum and coal
products by 4 percent. Small declines occurred in textiles (rayon only) and in chemicals.

PERCE MT OF 1935-39 A V E R A G E

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS

PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS

300

300
MONTHLY AVERAGE

200

200

-X,
I 00

0

v^.

J
I

I

40

IOO

I

I

42

I

I

44

I

v

MONTHLY A V E R A G E

I

I

46 48

I I I I I I II

I I I

II M ! I I I I I I

I I I I I !I I I I I

I948

I949

I947

0

y

A/

1

i i i l i ij1

40

42

44

46

MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS

48

l— v

V

-^^

1 I I 1 1 1 1 II 1 !
1947

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1*1 1 1

! 1 1 1 1 1 1I1 11

1948

1949

CHEMICAL PRODUCTS

400

400
MONTHLY A
A V E R A G E j\

300

300

•*

0 .

•^—*" *• •

**

200

200

I 00

•. •

/

^—
i i i i i i i i i
40

42

44

46

48

IOO

I i i t i I I!

! Li

t I I I I i ! I I I I

I M ' I ! ! I i i !

I948

I949

1947

0

1

I 1 j

40

42

| | j j

!__

II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 !

44

48

1947

46

! 1 I 1 I 11 II 1 1

M ! 1 I1 M 1 ! 1

1948

SOURCE: BOARD OF G O V E R N O R S OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE S Y S T E M

1949

C O U N C I L OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Textiles and
products

Period

Manufactured food
products

Chemical
products

1935-39 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average - _
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average

100
153
146
162
163
169

100
185
235
173
193
218

100
145
151
150
157
159

100
384
284
236
251
254

1948: January
February
March
April
May
June _
July...
August
September
October _
November _ _ _ _
December

179
179
175
174
176
174
154
166
168
167
164
156

214
215
211
213
220
221
217
222
207
217
227
230

158
160
158
157
159
163
160
154
163
161
159
158

255
252
250
249
249
256
251
259
257
255
257
257

160
159

227
217

159
159

257
252

1949* January ]
February
1

__

__

_ _ __

Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




12

Petroleum
and coal
products

WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORS
Production of steel, continuing in March at peak levels reached in January, was above that for March 1948.
Electric power was well above a year ago, cars and trucks just above, while bituminous coal was beiow.
MILLIONS OF TONS

BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS

3

7.0

STEEL

ELECTRIC POWER

1949

1949,

"1947

f

!
J

MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

0

M

D

THOUSANDS

3.0

120

SOURCES: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS.

Steel (thousands of net
tons)

Period

1947- His;h
Low

Weeklv average
March' First week
Second week
Third week
Fourth week

- _

1948- High
Low

Weekly average
March* First week
Second week
Third week
Fourth week

1949- High
Low

2

_

_

_

_

Electric power,
by utilities
(millions of
kilowatt-hours)

Bituminous
coal
(thousands of
short tons) 1

1, 711. 4
1, 259. 9
1, 637. 4
1, 651. 9
1, 676. 4
1, 686. 9
1, 697. 4

5,
4,
4,
4,
4,
4,
4,

368
190
821
787
764
759
729

2, 410

1, 804. 3
1, 285. 2
1, 700. 2
1, 705. 1
1, 741. 2
1, 757. 4
1, 725. 0

5, 790
4, 760
5, 300
5,293
5,285
5, 145
5,065

2, 371

1, 880.
1, 753.
1, 843.
1, 852.
1, 869.
.1, 880.
1, 863.

,
,
,
,
,
,
5,

4
8
1
7
3
4
8

810
404
639
552
531
496
404

2,
2,
2,
2,
2,

393

008
130
228
148
025

348

1,906
2, 173
2,219
727
353

3,963
478

Motor vehicles
(Ward's—number)
115,
49,
90,
99,
100,
102,
95,

353
503
860
081
432
632
289

119,
63,
100,
102,
108,
109,
101,

037
173
670
841
438
475
940

115,
79,
106,
113,
109,
115,
114,

671
377
573
317
101
671
110

1, 718
- _
Weeklv average
1, 710
March" First week
1, 725
Second week
Third week 3
478
Fourth week _
_
1
Daily average for the week.
2
Weekly average for the first 13 weeks of the year with the exception of bituminous coal production which is the daily
average
for the first 12 weeks of 1949.
3
Preliminary estimate.
Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, Ward's Automotive
 Reports.


13

NEW CONSTRUCTION
Construction activity increased seasonally in March to a total dollar volume of $1.2 billion, 18 percent
above February and 2 percent above March 1948. Privately financed construction, which accounted for
almost 3/4of the total dollar volume, was 6 percent below a year ago and publicly financed construction
was 39 percent higher.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

2,000

2,000
MONTHLY AVERAGE

TOTAL
NEW CONSTRUCTION
1,500

1,500

1,000

1,000

500

1939 1942 1944 1945 1946 1947

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

1947

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A M J

1948

J

A

S

O

N

O

1949

*INCLUDES PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars]
Private construction
Total new
construction

Period

Total
private
1939 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1949: January 2
February
March 2
1
2

-_

_
-

_ __ _ _

526
1, 118
345
401
871
1, 165
1,472
1,009
1, 166
1,311
1,461
1,616
1,715
1,799
1,782
1,707
1, 552
1, 391
1, 221
1,092
1, 195

Residential
(nonfarm)

317
251
152
226
688
908
1, 136
837
940
1,024
1, 120
1,235
1,318
1,354
1,332
1,265
1, 178
1,080
973
838
881

Includes public residential construction.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.

Digitized
14 for FRASER


176
110
45
57
265
438
582
400
475
525
585
635
680
695
685
650
600
550
450
375
400

Other

141
141
107
169
422
469
554
437
466
499
535
600
638
659
647
615
578
530
484
463
481

Federal,
State, and
local 1

208
867
193
174
184
257
336
172
226
287
341
381
397
445
450
442
374
311
287
254
314

NEW HOUSING STARTS
About 46,000 new permanent dwelling units were started in February -4,000 less than in February a year
ago. Starts for the first two months of this year were 6 percent below those for the same period last year.
THOUSANDS OF UNITS

THOUSANDS OF UNITS

125

125

100

25

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.




New nonfarm units started l
Month
1947

January
February
March
April
May

June
__
July__ _ _
August
September
October _
November
December

___
__ _
_

_

__

_

__
__ __.
__ __

_ _

Monthly average _

___

__

39, 300
42, 800
56, 000
67, 100
72, 900
77, 200
81, 100
86, 300
93, 800
94, 000
79, 700
58, 800
71, 125

1948

2
2
2

52, 600
49, 600
75, 100
98, 800
99, 400
97, 500
93, 500
86, 300
82, 200
72, 900
65, 000
56, 000

1949
2
2

50, 000
46, 000

77, 408

1
Conventional and prefabricated units, Excludes temporary units after 1947 when
program
ended.
2
Preliminary.
Source: Department of Labor.

is

EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT
AND EQUIPMENT
SEC-Commerce survey made in January shows that nonagricultural business expenditures for plant and equipment in
2nd quarter of 1949 are expected to be slightly lower than in same quarter of 1948. It also shows that substantial
declines in all fields except electric and gas utilities and mining are anticipated in 2nd half of this year.
B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

25

25
ANNUAL TOTALS

TRANSPORTATION AND
ELECTRIC AND GAS

fc^UTILITIES

1939

1941

1945

I

2

2ND HALF

1949
* NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL

I

VARIATION.

SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal]
Period

Total i

Manufacturing

Mining

Transportation
Railroad

Other

Electric and Commercial
miscelgas utilities and
laneous 2

1,850
280
1939
480
280
380
1, 930
5,200
2,490
1941
710
340
560
680
3,400
8, 190
1,480
630
320
1945
550
440
3,210
6,630
3,300
1,040
660
1946
570
560
5,910
12, 040
4,430
800
1,900
910
1947 _
. .
690
7,460
16, 180
5, 390
2, 680
1,320
700
800
8, 340
1948___
__
. _
19, 230
5,010
3, 130
650
1, 450
1949 3
820
7,240
18, 310
3,600
1,320
720
1947: First quarter _
_
_..___
640
600
5,800
12, 640
4, 120
1,800
Second quarter
920
880
640
7,400
15, 760
4,640
2,000
800
Third quarter
._
920
720
7,480
16, 560
5,360
760
2,480
1,200
Fourth quarter
840
9, 160
19, 760
4,960
2,000
720
1,080
720
7,200
16, 680
1948: First quarter
_ _
2,560
5,360
1,240
760
8,560
800
Second quarter
19, 280
5,440
2,760
1,320
680
8,360
800
19, 320
Third quarter
__ _ _
3,400
5, 760
680
800
1, 640
9, 280
21, 640
Fourth Quarter
2, 880
5, 160
640
720
1, 560
7, 760
1949: First quarter 3 3
18, 720
5,440
3, 160
720
1, 640
760
7,440
19, 120
Second quarter
3
3, 240
4, 720
620
1, 300
900
6, 880
17, 700
Second half _
_ _
1
Excludes agriculture.
2
Includes trade, service, finance, and communication.
3
Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business.
NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to
current expense/ Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other
data.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted).

16 for FRASER
Digitized


NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES
The seasonal increase in the 4th quarter, while less than in the preceding year, brought the yearly
total of corporate security issues close to that of 1947.
B I L L I O N S OF

DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

3 .0

3.0

QUARTERLY A V E R A G E

2.5

2.0

1943

1939

SOURCE:

SECURITIES

1945

AND E X C H A N G E

COMMISSION.

COUNCIL

OF E C O N O M I C A D V I S E R S

[Millions of dollars]
Proposed uses of net proceeds
Estimated
net proceeds

Period

New money

Total

1939 quarterly average
1943 quarterly average
1945 quarterly average
1946 quarterly average
1947 quarterly average
1 948 quarterly average 2
1947* First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

_
_

__

_

_

_

_ _

_ _

1948; First quarter . . . . _ _
Second quarter
Third quarter ,2 _ _ _
Fourth quarter

_

_

__
_

_
_.

__ .
__

Plant and
equipment

Working
capital

Retirement
of debt and
stock 1

529
287
1,475
1, 689
3,617
1, 599

81
77
270
820
1, 148
1,388

43
35
159
529
852
1,032

39
42
111
291
296
356

448
210
1,206
869
469
210

1,0541, 727
], 374
2, 3 1 1

706
1, 000
884
2, 000

402
661
692
1,654

305
338
192
347

348
727
490
310

1, 614
1,663
1,266
1,852

1, 400
1,353
1, 046
1,754

845
1, 080
765
1,438

555
274
280
316

214
309
221
97

1
2

Includes small amount for other purposes.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.




17

INVENTORIES AND SALES
After an almost uninterrupted increase since 1945, manufacturers' inventories leveled off in February.
Sales by manufacturers and department stores, in February, dipped below last years levels..
BILL ONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

WHOLESALE

RETAIL
•

20

20

INVEN T( )RIES

V

/*

1 0

xS/

1 0

>L _S

%..'*

""•^J/^

\ s/ L

/
•><r^WEfn( DRIES

0

1 t

1

40

42

1

t

I 1 1 I

44

1 I 1 M 1 1 1 1 11

48

46

1 1 1 I 1 1 i 1 M

1947

1

I 1 1 1 1 1 1 I M

1948

0

1

1949

!

1

1 |

|

40

42

44

j

1 ( !
46

7

"*

M 1 I 1 1I 1 M !

48

i iiii 1 ii iM

1 i Ii 1 11 1 1I 1

1947

1948

1949

PERCE W OF 1935-1939 AVERAGE

BILL IONS OF DOLLARS

DEPARTMENT STORES

MANUFACTURING
40

400
MONTHLY A V E R A G E

MONTHLY A V E R A G E

IN VErJT DRIES

\
\

30

•

r

•"Xs

300

LE

S

f\

•'"'f*~^'+
"••.••**

^

.*

2O

1 0

0

.../c/

J .""iNVEIS TC)RIES
200

^^ ^
\L "C.

1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1
40

42

44

46

1 00

1 ! 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1

48

1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1

1947

I 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1948

0

J^
1
40

1949

1

1 1 1 | f
42

44

1 I

46

48

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M

11

1 M 1 1 1 1 M

1948

1947

1 1

1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 I 1 1

1949

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FE DERAL RES E R V E SYSTEM

Manufacturing 1
Period

Inventories

3

Sales

Retail 2

Wholesale *•
4

Inventories

3

Sales

4

Inventories

3

Department stores
Sales

4

___

_

*XJ.f»J

1
2

18

____

11, 516
17, 024
19, 897
17, 924
23, 435
28, 020
31, 766
28, 768
29, 064
29, 161
29, 437
29, 727
30, 236
30, 429
30, 710
30, 848
31, 225
31, 766
31, 998
32, 000

3, 200
4, 151
3, 577
4, 216
5,823
7, 545
8,315
7,885
7,869
7,777
7,801
7,953
7, 930
8, 100
8, 243
8,400
8, 507
8, 315
8, 542
8, 602

2, 505
3, 650
4,330
4, 777
6, 138
7,304
7,867
7, 121
7,726
7, 652
7,389
7,766
7,796
8, 161
8,286
8,376
8, 242
8, 196
7, 192
6,805

5,502
7, 620
7,350
7, 502
11, 049
12, 953
14, 556
13, 751
14, 040
13, 907
13, 951
14, 065
14, 080
14, 145
14, 531
14, 576
14, 779
14, 556
14, 085
14, 084

3,504
4, 624
5,310
6, 387
8,399
9,860
10, 784
10, 463
10, 658
10, 891
10, 620
10, 862
10, 857
10, 893
10, 968
10, 894
10, 771
11, 062
10, 615
10, 615

102
131
155
166
213
255
292
303
312
308
297
285
275
268
275
283
303
305
285
2S7

106
133
168
207
264
286
302
286
284
306
311
312
316
312
312
306
287
310
288
274

5
Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for
month
and retail book value of inventories, end of month.
6
Preliminary estimate.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System*

Not adjusted for seasonal variation.
Adjusted for seasonal variation.




3
4

5, 112
8, 172
12, 603
12, 371
12, 020
15, 671
17, 593
16, 225
18, 117
17, 229
16, 777
17, 871
16, 403
18, 169
18, 781
18, 807
17, 987
18, 195
16, 859
16, 200

Sales

1935-39=100, seasonally
adjusted 6

Millions of dollars
1939
1941
•
_ __
1943
1945
_
_
______
1946
1947
.. _ _ _ __
1948
1948: February
March
April _«
Mav
- June«
July
August
September
October _„6
November
December 6
1949' January 6 6
February

Inventories

Book value, end of month.
Total for month.

MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
Exports and imports changed l i t t l e in February from the January levels. The averages for the
two months are about the same as for the last six months of 1948.

first

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1,600

1,600

1,400 -

-

1,400

1,200

1,200

-

1,000 -

1,000

800

800

- 600

600 -

400

400

- 200

200 ~

1936-38

1943

1946

J

1947

F

W

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

*
RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS, AND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED AREAS.
** RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS.
SOURCES:

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY

[Millions of dollars]
Exports 1

Period
1936-38 monthly average
1943 monthly average _ _ _
1945 monthly average _
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: January
February
MarchApril
May
_
June
July
August
September—
October
November
December
1949: Januarv_
February

_
_

_

_
_

_
_

_ „ _

__
_
-

__
_
_ _ _

_
.

_

____

Imports 2

Excess of
exports

247
1,080
877
849
t 278
1, 051

207
282
346
410
478
589

40
798
531
439
801
461

1,092
1,086
1, 138
1, 120
1, 102
1,014
1, 020
986
926
1,020
819
1 , 284

545
582
666
528
549
616
558
598
558
597
550
721

546
504
473
592
553
398
461
387
368
423
269
563

1, 086
1.028

589
568

497
460

1
Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas.
' Recorded general merchandise imports.
Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy.




19

PURCHASING POWER
NATIONAL INCOME
A steady rise throughout 1948 brought total national income for the year to 224
10 percent higher than for 1947.

billion dollars, about
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250

B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS
250

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

A N N U A L TOTALS

•CORPORATE PROFITS AND
: INVENTORY VALUATION !

•: ADJUSTMENT. •:•:•:•:•:•:•:•:•:•:-:-:•:•:-:-:-:••

' 'AND RENTAL ^:^:':-V::s^-:S^:::x^>^ys.v::^x:^

S^^

I 50

:<^

:-:^

COMPENSATION OF

1944

1939

1945
1946

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

[Billions of dollars]

Total
national
income

Period

1939
1944
1945
1946
1947 l
1948

__
__

_ __-

_
_ _

72. 5
182. 4
181. 7
179. 3
202. 5
224. 4

Corporate profits and inventory
valuation adjustment

Compensation of
employees

Proprietors'
a.iui rental
income

Net, interest

47. 8
121. 1
122. 9
117.3
127. 5
139. 4

14, 7
34. 1
36. 0
41.8
46. 0
50. 9

4. 2
3. 1
3.0
3.4
4. 3
4. 9

Total
5. 8
24.0
19. 8
16. 8
24. 7
29. 2

Profits
before
taxes

Inventory
valuation
adjustment

6. 5
24.3
20. 4
21. 8
29. 8
32. 2

-0.7
-. 3
-.6
5 0
— 5. 1
-3. 0

28. 9
28. 8
29. 1
32.4
30. 5
32. 1
34.0

-7. 1
-3. 6
-4. 8
-4. 9
-5. 3
-2. 5
-3. 9
-.4

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947* First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1
948* First quarter
Second quarter _ _
Third quarter
Fourth quarter l
1
2

20

__ _

197.
199.
200.
212.
213.
222.
228.

3
3
6
8
9
3
2

125. 0
1 25. 3

127. r,

132.
134.
136.
142.
144.

2
0
3
4
7

46. 4
44. 6
44. 4
48. 6
49. 9
51. 6
50. 6
51.4

4. 1
4. 2
4. 4
4. 5
4. 7
4. 8
5.0
5.2

21. 8
25. 2
24. 3
27. 5
25. 3
29.6
30. 2

Preliminary estimate; includes estimate of corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment for fourth quarter
Not available.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except fourth quarter, 1948).




CORPORATE PROFITS
Corporate profits in the first 3 quarters of 1948 ran above the 1947 levels.
B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

4 0

40

ANNUAL TOTALS

3 0

1929

*

1939

1943

ffO ALLOWANCE FOR INVENTORY VALUATION 6DJ<1STMENT.

SOURCE:

DEPARTMENT

OF

COMMERCE.

[Billions of dollars]
Corporate
profits
before taxes

Period

1929
1939 1943
1946 ._ 1947
1948

._. .

9.8
6.5
24.5
21. 8
29.8
32.2

Corporate
tax
liability
1.4
1.5
14.2
9.0
11.7
12.5

Corporate profits after taxes
Total
8.4
5.0
10.4
12. 8
18. 1
19. 7

Dividend
payments
5.8
3.8
4.5
5.6
6.9
7. 8

Undistributed
profits
2.6
1.2
5.9
7.2
11.2
11.9

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter _

28.9
28. 8
29. 1
32.4

11.4
11. 3
11.4
12.7

17.5
17.5
17.7
19.7

6.4
6. 7
6.9
7.1

11. 1
10.8
10.8
12. 6

1948: First quarter.
Second quarter
Third quarter

30. 5
32. 1
34. 0

11. 8
12. 5
13. 3

18. 7
19. 6
20.8

7.4
7. 4
7. 7

11.3
12. 2
13. 1

NOTE. — No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment. See p. 19 for profits before
taxes and inventory valuation adjustment,
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.



21

PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income dropped $2/£ billion (annual rate) in February as a result of decreased
employment and lower farm income,
BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S
250

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

TERMINAL LEAVE BOND CASHING STARTED IN SEPTEMBER, 1947.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

[Billions of dollars]
Total
personal
income

Period

1939
.
1944
1945__.
1946
1947
1948

......

72.6
164.5
170.3
178. 1
195.2
213. 6

Salaries, wages, Proprietors' Dividends Social security
and rental and interest and GI payand other
income
labor income
ments

45.7
116. 1
116.8
111. 4
121.9
134. 3

14. 7
34. 1
36.0
41. 8
46.0
50. 9

9.2
10.6
11.4
13. 5
15. 6
17.2

3.0
3. 6
6.2
11. 4
11.7
11. 1

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: December _
1948: January
February
March
April
May

June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1949: January ___1 _
February _
1

22




_ _ _ _

_ _ _ _ • _ _

207. 7
208. 8
206.4
205.7
208. 6
209. 2
214. 4
214.8
216. 7
217. 3
218. 5
219. 9
221. 0
219. 5
217.0

129.3
129. 3
128. 8
128. 5
128. 8
131. 0
133. 4
135. 5
138. 0
138. 8
139. 6
140. 1
139. 8
138. 4
137.2

51. 3
51. 8
49. 6
48. 4
51. 2
50.4
53. 0
51.2
50.3
50.4
50.7
51. 4
52. 1
51.4
49.6

Preliminary estimate. Data became available after chart was prepared.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.

16. 2
16. 5
16. 6
16. 6
16. 7
16. 8
16. 9
17. 0
17. 3
17. 5
17. 8
18. 1
18. 4
18. 6
18.7

10. 9
11.2
11. 4
12. 2
11. 9
11. 0
11. 1
11. 1
11. 1
10. 6
10.4
10. 3
10. 7
11. 1
11. 5

O

N

D

CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING
At the end of the year consumers' saving was apparently running at an annual rate of about 18 billion
dollars — considerably more than the estimates for 1946 and 1947.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

250

ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

200

1939

1940

* PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES
SOURCE:

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Billions of dollars]
Disposable
personal
income l

Period
1939
_
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944 .
1945
1946
1947
1948

__

_ - .•

_

_ _

_
_

..

70. 2
75. 7
92.0
116.2
131. 6
145. 6
149.4
159.2
173. 6
192. 6

Less: Personal
consumption
expenditures

Equals: Personal saving

67.5
72. 1
82. 3
90.8
101.6
111.4
122.8
147.4
164.8
177. 7

2.7
3. 7
9.8
25. 4
30.0
34. 2
26.6
11.8
8.8
14. 9

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter




_

_

169.7
168.2
175. 0
180.9

158. 1
164.2
165. 6
171. 1

11.6
4. 1
9.4
9.7

183. 9
179. 2
196. 2
199.4

172. 5
177. 3
180. 1
181. 0

11.4
12. 9
16. 1
18.4

1

Income less taxes.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except fourth quarter, 1948).

23

PER CAPITA INCOME*
The last quarter of 1948 registered a moderate gain in the real purchasing power of
consumers, reflecting a continued rise in incomes and a drop in prices.
DOLLARS

DOLLARS

1,600

1,600
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

4

*+>

1948 DOLLARS

V
X*'
1,200

800

800

CURRENT DOLLARS

400

J
1939

1940

1941

1942

1943

I
1944

J

1945

1946

1947

i

1948

2
3
1947

4

J

I

2
3
1948

Per capita disposable personal
income *
Current
1948 dollars *
dollars

Period

.
_ - _ _

_

__

$536
574
691
863
964
1,054
1,070
1, 127
1,205
1,313

$923
981
,125
,256
,306
,391
,374
,351
1,294
1,313

Annual rates, seasonally
adjusted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter- _
Third quarter
Fourth quarter _
1948: First quarter
Second quarter. _ _ _
Third quarter
Fourth ouarter_ _ _
1
2
3

24

_
_ _
_ _

I

2

3

1949
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

SOURCES; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

1939
1940
1941
1942___
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947 . .
1948

4

__

_ _ _
_ _

$1, 186
1, 170
1,212
1,246
1,263
1,286
1,318
1, 351

$1, 308
1,280
1,291
1,291
1,289
1,291
1,295
1.342

Consumers'
price index 3
1948 = 100
58. 1
58. 5
61.4
68.7
73.8
75. 8
77.9
83.4
93. 1
100. 0

Not adjusted
for seasonal
variation
90. 7
91. 4
93.9
96.5
98. 0
99. 6
101. 8
100. 7

Income less taxes.
Current dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base 1948=100.
The consumers' price index has been roughly adjusted to take account of the understatement from
December 1941-February 1947. This adjustment is in line with the report of the Mitchell Committee. The
unadjusted index will be found on page 2.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor,




AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS
Average hourly earnings continued to rise slightly in most industries in January. Preliminary February data
for manufacturing industries show a small drop in actual hourly rates but some increase when adjusted for
price changes.
DOLL ARS PER HOUR

DOLLARS PER HOUR

RETAIL TRADE

ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
2.00

2.00

MONTHLY

1.50

1948

1.50

C )0 _ L A R S ~
*m

,-~— *— '
£^=1

<* /

1.00

AVERAGE

<jf

1948

±*

1.00

^X"^

pjTYYYTTTTl
40

42

44 46

MM! 1 1 1 1 iTTTi 1 1

1 I I ! 1 1 ( i 1 I 1 1 II 1 I I

48

1947

1948

0

MM
40

1949

Tl 1 ~Tl

42

44

•
jf***-

1948

j/ 30 LLARS*££:

,,->/

2.00

46

1 M M

48

Mill

II M 1 1 II 1 1 i

1947

M i l l

1948

1948

D OL L A R S *

| | M |

1949

^^^^

i^A^i^r

'-^J

~^J
1,50

/\

f
J CUF R ENT D O L L A R S

>

CURF Ef ^T DOLLARS

f

1.00

-/

.50

.50

0

DOLLARS

PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION

BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
2.00

I.OO

t^

CUF REINT

.50

.50

1.50

f

_£^^^^4M0ttVV

GURREf\IT DOLLARS

f

0

t )0 _LARS*

l I I I ! i l [ |
40

42

44

46

1 M M 1M 1 M

48

M II ! 1 1 II II

1947

M i l l

1948

HIM

0

~7TTTTTTTT1
40

1949

42

44

46

iTTTmTl M

48

1 1 1 1 M 1 1 M

1947

M

M i l l

1948

1 M 111

1949

* CUR KENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY CONSUMERS'' PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE 1948- IOO

SOURC:E:

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

D E P A R T M E N T OF LABOR

[Selected industries]
Manufacturing
Period

1939 monthly
1941 monthly
1944 monthly
1945 monthly
1946 monthly
1947 monthly
1948 monthly

Current
dollars

average
average
average
average
average
average 3
average _

1948* February
March
April
Mav
June
Julv
August
.
September
October
„
November 3
December
1949: January 3 3_
February

.. _ _ _

Bituminous coal mining

Retail trade

1948
dollars 2

Current
dollars

1948
dollars 2

0. 633
.729
1.019
1.023
1.084
1. 221
1.327

1. 090
1. 187
1. 381
1.313
1.230
1. 311
1.327

0. 536
.568
.724
.773
.878
. 991
1.067

0. 923
.925
.981
.992
1.053
1. 064
1.067

1.287
1.289
1.292
1.301
1.316
1.332
1.349
1.362
1. 366
1.372
1.376

1.316
1.322
1.306
1. 306
1.312
1.312
1. 324
1.337
1.347
1.364
1.375

1.050
1. 044
1.055
1.064
1.070
1.077
1.080
1.086
1.080
1.084
1. 072

1.074
1.071
1.067
1.068
1. 067
1.061
1. 060
1.066
1. 065
1.078
1. 071

1. 381
1. 377

1. 384
1. 395

1. 110

1. 112

Current
dollars

1948
dollars 2

0.886
.993
1. 186
1. 240
1.401
1. 633
1.897
4

1. 826
1. 842
1. 821
1. 841
1. 850
1. 936
1.967
1.970
1.959
1.951
1.955
1. 959

4

Private building
construction l
Current
dollars

1948
dollars 2

1.525
1. 617
1.607
1.592
1. 680
1. 754
1.897

0.932
1.010
1.319
1.379
1. 478
1.681
1.863

1. 604
1.645
1.787
1.770
1.772
1.806
1.863

1.867
1.889
1. 841
1.848
1. 844
1.907
1.930
1.933
1.932
1.939
1.953

1.806
1.805
1.818
1.835
1.858
1.890
1.901
1.919
1.919
1.906
1.918

1.847
1.851
1.838
1.842
1.852
1.862
1.866
1.883
1.892
1.895
1. 916

1. 963

(5)

«

1
2
3
4
5

Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1948= 100. See note 3 to table on page 24.
Preliminary estimate.
Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
Not available. This series is in process of revision,
Source: Department of Labor.




25

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS

4

Weekly earnings in manufacturing industries continued in January and February near the levels reached last fall.

DOLl_ARS PER WEEK

DOLLARS PER WEEK

60

RETAIL TRADE

MANUFACTURING

A

60

\I948 C0 LLARS**
•»
*~rj
•^-^55^ ***•*-****•""

/
/

MONTHLY AVERAGE

1948 D 0 _LARS**
40

CURREN" • [JOLLARS

/

8

40
•^

'**i~1111

/
^^^^CURREN' " [DOLLARS
20

20

MONTHLY AVERAGE

0

|

I I | | ! I | |

40

42

44

46

!! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

48

II

1 I i 1 1 ! ! 1 1M

1947

1948

1t 1 1 1 ! ! 1 1

0

1

1

40

(949

1

1

1

42

! 1 I ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

48

( 1 M , ! ( It

1947

, ,

1948

1949

100

1948 D 01.LARS**

80

v»y*^
i—*~<^\
V

J

r7

60

/

20

46

PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION

BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
100

40

i i i t

44

x>(

y
"*"*

/CURREN

1948 D 01_LARS**

/**•£*/

/

60

42 44 46 48

/

-"A
X

.***»/
$~-*2** *zs*^

/

y

/ CURREN" • [ JOLLARS

)OLLARS

/

0

40

r

80

4O

20

i ii i i 1 i i t i i

1 I I 1I 1 1 I 1 1i

1947

1948

1 1 1 M 1 M

1 1 1

0

^EARNINGS DATA DISTC~TED DUR NG THESE MONTHS BECAUSE OF WORK STOPPAGES OR VACATIONS.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

!

1

40

1949

1

1

42

1

1

44

1

1

46

1

i i ti i 1 iii ii

48

11 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1

1947

1948

""CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY CONSUMERS' PRICE NDEX ON BASE OF 1943=

1949

00

[Selected industries]
Manufacturing
Period

Current
dollars

1948 dollars

Retail trade
Current
dollars

1948 dollars

Bituminous coal mining
Current
dollars

1948 dollars

36.44
23.88
21. 17
41.07
1939 monthly average
23. 86
30. 86
35. 73
21. 94
48. 18
1941 monthly average. _ _
29.58
36.02
51. 27
62.44
26. 58
1944 monthly average
46.08
52. 25
36. 34
56. 98
28. 31
44. 39
1945 monthly average58.03
39. 03
32. 55
43.74
52.45
1946 monthly average
66. 86
39.39
36. 67
52.90
49.25
1947 monthly average.3 _
72.06
39. 83
53. 15
39.83
53. 15
1948 monthly average
70. 54
39. 19
52.91
38.33
51.75
1948: February _
74. 84
39. 89
53.41
38.89
52. 07
March,
_
4
49. 53
39.71
52.37
39. 27
51. 79
April
74. 08
40. 00
39.84
52.07
51. 86
May.
__
40.40
73. 87
40. 52
52. 69
52.85
June
67. 62
40. 58
52. 17
41. 19
52. 95
July
78. 10
40. 42
41. 19
53.04
54.05
August „
75.
52
39.
73
53. 17
40.48
September
54. 18
76.40
39. 76
40. 32
53. 90
54. 65
October
73. 52
39. 43
54.23
39. 67
November
_
_
54. 56
74.87
40.58
40. 62
54.98
December 3
55.03
75. 61
41. 87
54.52
54.41
41. 79
1949: January 3354. 96
54. 25
Februarv
1
Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.
2
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1948=100. See note 3 to table on page 24.
3
Preliminary
estimate.
4
Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
5
Not available. This series is in process of revision.

Source: Department of Labor.


41. 10
50.26
69.47
67.07
69.58
71. 81
72.06
72. 13
76. 76
4
50. 08
74.38
73. 65
66.62
76. 64
74. 11
75. 34
73.08
74.80
75.76

Private building construction
Current
dollars
30.39
35. 14
52. 18
53.73
56. 24
63.30
69.71
66.31
66.89
67.31
68. 13
70. 49
71. 38
71.89
72. 06
71.69
70.73
73.32
(5)

1948

dollars

52.31
57.23
70.70
68. 97
67.43
67. 99
69. 71
67. 80
68. 61
68.06
68.40
70.28
70.33
70. 55
70. 72
70. 70
70.31
73.25
(5)

FARM INCOME
Cash farm income in February fell below that of the corresponding period a year ago for the third successive month.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

4

4

1939

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

J

M

""

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

1948

1947

F

M

MJ

J

A S O N D

1949

*INCLUDES CASH FARM INCOME FROM FROM MARKETINGS AND GOVERNMENT PAYMENTS.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

FarnTineome
(millions of
current
dollars) *

Period

1 939 monthly average
- 1941 monthly average _ _
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly avers. °'e
1 944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
_
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average - _
1948* February
March
ADril
May
_ _
June
July
_ _
__
August
September
_
October
November
_
_
December
1949* January 4 4
February

Prices paid by
farmers (incl. Farm income
(millions of
interest and
-1948 dollars) 3
taxes) 1948=
100 2

723
981

_
_

..
_ __ _

1 340
1 678
1, 753
1 857
2, 136
2 542
2, 609
1, 862
1,932
2, 075
2, 119
2, 437
2, 693
2, 722
3, 132
3, 714
3, 314
2, 740
2, 383
1, 783

1
Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments.
2
Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1948 = 100.
3
Farm
income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest,
4




Preliminary.
Source: Department of Agriculture,

49. 8
53. 0
60. 2
65. 1
67. 9
69. 1
77. 5
92. 8
100.0
99. 6
99. 2
100.0
100.4
100. 8
100. 8
100. 8
100.4
100.0
99.2
99. 6
99. 6
98. 4

1,452
1, 851
2,226
2, 578
2, 582
2, 687
2,756
2, 739
2,609
1,869
1,948
2,075
2, 111
2,418
2, 672
2,700
3, 120
3,714
3, 341
2,751
2,393
1,812

and taxes, 1948=100.

27

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Expenditures for both durable and nondurable goods increased less in 1948 than in 1947.
for services, however, increased more than in the preceding year.

Expenditures

BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S

BILLIONS Of

DOLLARS

aoo

200

ANNUAL TOTALS

ANNUAL

RATES, SEASONALLY

ADJUSTED

TOTAL
EXPENDITURES

||||ippiiiiyiiiiiiiyiiuiuiui»ipr>xA '/cv;:/ %v&-:!
r

P*TT, . *i ^//

i '^yssytf// ''s/s' s*

' DURABLE^ GOODS/;j:^ V>^lS'':?
100

'[NONDURABLE GOODS;
50

J,—J_
1946

1947

2

1948

3

2

1947

SOURCE:

DEPARTMENT

OF

3

2

3

1949

1948

COMMERCE.

[Billions of dollars]
Personal consumption expenditures
Period

Nondurable
goods

Total
1939
1944
1945.
1946
1947_
1948

67. 5
111. 4
122. 8
147. 4
164. 8
177. 7

35. 3
67. 5
75. 4
87. 5
96. 5
103. 6

Durable
goods
6. 7
6. 9
8. 3
16. 2
21. 0
22. 7

Services
25.5
37.0
39.2
43.6
47.3
51.4

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: First quarter...
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

.„

1948: First quarter
_
Second quarter _ _ _
Third quarter
__
Fourth quarter

_

_
__

__
„

1
2
6
1

92.5
96.3
96.8
100.2

19.6
21. 1
21. 1
22. 1

46.0
46.7
47.7
48.8

172. 5
177. 3
180. 1
181. 0

101.4
103. 7
104.3
105. 1

21. 3
22.8
23.7
22.9

49.8
50.8
52. 1
53.0

158.
164.
165.
171.

NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of-Commerce^(exceptfourth quarter, 1948).



28

CONSUMER CREDIT
From December to .February there was a billion dollar contraction in total outstanding consumer credit.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

2 0

2 0

1939

1943

1946

J

1947

J

1948

END OF YEAR

END OF MONTH
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
End of period

1929.
1939
1941.
1943
1945.
1946.
1947
1948.
1948: February
March
April
May
June.
July.
August

_ _ ...

.

_ __

October
_ ._ _ _
November
December _
_ _ _
1949: January—..3
February .
_ _ _

_.

September

_ _ _ _
___
_ „ _

Total
consumer
credit
outstanding

Instalment
credit l

7. 6
8 0
9. 9
5. 3
6. 6
10. 1
13 4
15. 9
13. 1
13. 5
13. 8
14. 0
14.3
14. 4
14.5
14. 8
15. 1
15. 3
15. 9
15. 3
14. 9

3.2
4. 4
5. 9
1. 9
2.3
3.9
6 2
8. 2
6. 3
6.6
6.8
7.0
7. 2
7.4
7.6
7. 8
7. 8
7. 9
8. 2
8, 0
7. 9

Charge
accounts
1. 7
15
1. 8
1. 5
2. 0
3. 1
36
3. 9
3. 1
3. 3
3. 2
3. 2
3. 4
3. 2
3. 1
3.2
3. 5
3. 6
3. 9
3. 5
3.2

Other
consumer
credit a
2 7
2 0
2 2
1 9
2 3
31
3 6
3 9
3 7
3. 7
3. 7
3 7
3. 8
3 8
38
3 8
38
3 9
3. 9
3 9
3. 8

1
Includes automobile and other sale credit and repair and modernization loans insured by Federal Housing Administration.
1
Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit.
8
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




29

MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS
In February, banks decreased their total volume of outstanding loans as well as their holdings of Government
securities.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

125

125

100

100

75

50

25

25

1929

1939

1945
1947

END OF YEAR

1948
END OF MONTH

1949

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
of Economic A d v i s e r s

[Billions of dollars]
Total
T7*T»/-1 r\t

-r\t^f\f\A

investments

1929
1939
1945.
1946
1947.
1948..

-

_ _

1948: February.
March
ApriL
May
_ .
June
July
August
September
..
October
November
December.. _
1949:

January _ 1
February ,_
1

_ _

_ _

..

- _

..

___-._

__ _
_ _

Investments
Bank loans
Total

Other
securities

49. 5
40. 7
124. 0
114.0
116. 4
114. 3

36. 0
17. 2
26. 1
31. 1
38. 1
42. 7

13. 5
23. 4
97. 9
82.9
78. 3
71. 6

4. 8
16. 3
90. 6
74.8
69. 3
62. 5

8.7
7.1
7.3
8.1
9.0

115. 5
113. 6
114. 3
114. 5
113. 9
114, 8
115. 1
113. 6
114. 1
114. 2
114. 3

38. 7
38. 9
38. 8
39. 4
39. 9
40. 1
40. 6
41.7
41. 6
42. 3
42.7

76. 9
74.7
75. 5
75. 1
74.0
74.6
74. 5
71.9
72. 5
71.9
71.6

67. 9
65. 5
66. 3
65.9
64.8
65.3
65. 1
62.5
63. 3
62.8
62.5

9.0
9.3
9.2
9.2
9.2
9.3
9.4
9.4
9.2

114.4
113. 4

42.4
42.0

72.0
71.4

63.0
62. 2

9. 1
9. 1

Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.


30


U.S.
Government
securities

9. 1

9. 1
9. 1

MONEY SUPPLY
The total money supply declined nearly $ 2 billion in February, chiefly as a result of reduced demand deposits.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

200

200

TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY
( EXCLUDING U.S.GOV'T. DEPOSITS)
175

TIME DEPOSITS

100

75

ADJUSTED DEMAND DEPOSITS

50

25

CURRENCY OUTSIDE BANKS;

1...L
1939

1943

1946

1947

1948

J

F

M

A

M

J
I9

END OF YEAR

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

47

M

J

I I I I

I
J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

4

I9 8

A

M

J

J

A

1949

END OF MONTH
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.

COUNCIL 0

[Billions of dollars]
Total money
supply

End of period

1929
1939
1941.
1943
1945_
1946
1947.
1948
1948: February _«
March
April
,,
May
June _ _
_
July
August
September
October
November
T)ficeTnher »
1949: January 3
February

_

_

„ _ _ _ _

.

___

54. 6
63.3
76.3
112.3
150. 9
164.0
170. 0
168. 7
167. 1
164. 0
165.0
165. 2
165. 7
166. 2
166.7
166. 9
168.0
167. 9
168.7
168.0
166. 1

Currency
outside
banks
3. 6
6. 4
9. 6
18. 8
26. 5
26. 7
26. 5
25. 7
25. 7
25. 6
25. 4
25. 4
25. 6
25 5
25. 6
25. 7
25. 7
25. 9
25. 7
25. 2
25. 1

Adjusted
demand
deposits 1
22. 8
29. 8
39. 0
60. 8
75. 9
83. 3
87. 1
85. 8
84. 6
81. 5
82.7
82 8
82. 7
83 4
83.8
83. 9
85. 0
85 0
85. 8
85. 3
83. 3

Time
deposits

2

28. 2
27. 1
27. 7
32 7
48. 5
54. 0
56. 4
57. 3
56. 8
56 9
56. 9
57. 0
57.4
57. 3
57. 3
57. 3
57. 3
57. 0
57. 3
57. 6
57. 7

1

Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection.
2
Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System.
1
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




31

FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM
AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC
The cash surplus of about $3 billion during the first quarter, which includes the seasonally high
March tax receipts, was less than half as great as during the same quarter of 1948.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
I6

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
16
X CASH

RECEIPTS

CASH PAYMENTS

12

1947

1946

1948

1949

EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS

EXCESS OF CASH PAYMENTS

1947

1946

1948
CALENDAR

PREL.

1949

EST.

YEARS

SOURCE: BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT.

[Millions of dollars]
Calendar years

Calendar year total:
1946
1947
1948
Quarterly total, not adjusted for seasonal:
1946: First quarter
_
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

_ _
- __

1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

_
__

_

_

Federal cash
receipts from
the public 1

Federal cash
payments to
the public 1

41, 426
44, 279
44, 920

41, 372
38, 584
36, 954

+ 54
+ 5,695
+ 7,967

12,
9,
9,
9,

632
462
702
630

12, 244
12, 008
8,449
8, 671

+ 388
— 2 547
+ 1 252
+ 959

14,
9,
10,
9,

345
847
220
869

9,
10,
10,
8,

163
628
257
536

+ 5 182
— 781
— 37
+ 1 331

15,
10,
10,
9,

037
238
085
560

8,637
9,033
8, 798
10, 486

+ 6 400
+ 1, 205
+ 1 287
— 925

Excess of receipts (+) or
payments ( — )

2

10, 075
13, 125
1 949 : First a uarter
+ 3.050
1
Payments of refunds of Government receipts are now reported as deductions from total receipts; previously,
they were reported as expenditures.
2
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.-—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget.


32


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